Georgios Apostolakis; Bing Qu; Nurhan Ecemis; Seda Dogruel
As part of the 2007 Yri-Center Field Mission to Japan,a reconnaissance team comprised of fourteen graduate students and three faculty members from three U.S. earthquake engineering research centers,namely,Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER),Mid-America Earthquake Center(MAE),and Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER),undertook a reconnaissance visit to the affected area shortly after the 2007 NiigataChuetsu Oki earthquake.This mission provided an opportunity to review the nature of the earthquake damage that occurred,as well as to assess the significance of the damage from an educational perspective.This paper reports on the seismological characteristics of the earthquake,preliminary findings of geotechnical and structural damage,and the causes of the observed failures or collapses.In addition,economic and socio-economic considerations and experiences to enhance earthquake resilience are presented.
Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are designed to withstand earthquakes that can be anticipated to occur during their operating periods and to shut down safely in the event of a major earthquake. In Taiwan, three reactors at the Chinshan and Kuosheng NPPs shut down automatically during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6. In Japan, one reactor at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP and three reactors at the Onagawa NPP shut down automatically during the 2004 Niigata-Chuetsu earthquake's aftershock (M=5.2) and the 2005 Miyagi earthquake (M=7.2), respectively. Recently, on July 16, 2007, there was a powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 6.6 occurred in the northwest Niigata region of Japan. Since the strong ground motion significantly exceeded the design basis ground motion level, the operating reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP were automatically shut down and a number of problems were identified. This paper summarizes the responses and damages of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP during the 2007 Niigataken Chuetsu-Oki earthquake and then addresses the lessons learned from a seismic or structural point of view
Niigataken Chuetsu-oki earthquake occurred in July 2007 and damaged individual's housing and properties in local residents and Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant facilities. The earthquake caused very strong ground motions far exceeding the assumed values in the design. The impacts were a fire breakout of the Unit 3 transformer and a release of small amount of radioactive materials to the environment at Unit 6 and 7. A joint of the driving shaft of the overhead crane of the Unit 6 reactor building was damaged. The fire of the Unit 3 transformer developed safety concerns among the public because of insufficient effectiveness of the private fire brigade, unavailability of fire control systems, and delayed notification to the external fire station, and as its consequence a lot of time needed to bring the fire under control. Delayed information dissemination gave deep concerns about the possible radioactive contamination in the environment. Based on New Regulatory Guide for Reviewing Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Reactor Facilities revised in September 2006, detail understanding of shakes and additional investigation of geological faults around the plant site were underway. Precise explanations on in-situ investigation and evaluation results to the residents would be necessary to answer their seismic safety concerns. (T. Tanaka)
Though the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station was subjected to significantly strong ground motions of the Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007, the main facility buildings had almost no damage. Since a large amount of land subsidence was observed near the buildings, the soil around the buildings was expected to be in the strong nonlinear state during the earthquake. In this paper, the authors tried to clarify actual behavior of Unit No.7 reactor building during the earthquake through the simulation analyses using the finite element method. In our analyses, nonlinear effects were considered in contact conditions between the buildings and the surrounding soil by employing joint elements in addition to soil materials. (author)
Kayen, Robert; Collins, Brian D.; Abrahamson, Norm; Ashford, Scott; Brandenberg, Scott J.; Cluff, Lloyd; Dickenson, Stephen; Johnson, Laurie; Tanaka, Yasuo; Tokimatsu, Kohji; Kabeyasawa, Toshimi; Kawamata, Yohsuke; Koumoto, Hidetaka; Marubashi, Nanako; Pujol, Santiago; Steele, Clint; Sun, Joseph I.; Tsai, Ben; Yanev, Peter; Yashinsky, Mark; Yousok, Kim
The M6.6 mainshock of the Niigata Chuetsu Oki (offshore) earthquake occurred at 10:13 a.m. local time on July 16, 2007, and was followed by a sequence of aftershocks that were felt during the entire time of the reconnaissance effort. The mainshock had an estimated focal depth of 10 km and struck in the Japan Sea offshore Kariwa. Analysis of waveforms from source inversion studies indicates that the event occurred along a thrust fault with a NE trend. The fault plane is either a strike of 34 degrees with a dip of 51 degrees or a strike of 238 degrees with a dip of 41 degrees. Which of these two planes is associated with the mainshock rupture is unresolved, although attenuation relationship analysis indicates that the northwest-dipping fault is favored. The quake affected an approximately 100-km-wide area along the coastal areas of southwestern Niigata prefecture. The event triggered ground failures as far as the Unouma Hills, located in central Niigata approximately 50 km from the shore and the source area of the 2004 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake. The primary event produced tsunami run-ups that reached maximum runup heights of about 20 centimeters along the shoreline of southern Niigata Prrefecture.
Itoh, Kazuya; Noda, Masashi; Kikkawa, Naotaka; Hori, Tomohito; Tamate, Satoshi; Toyosawa, Yasuo; Suemasa, Naoaki
Labour accidents in disaster-relief and disaster restoration work following the Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake (2004) and the Niigata Chuetsu-oki Earthquake (2007) were analysed and characterised in order to raise awareness of the risks and hazards in such work. The Niigata Chuetsu-oki Earthquake affected houses and buildings rather than roads and railways, which are generally disrupted due to landslides or slope failures caused by earthquakes. In this scenario, the predominant type of accident is a "fall to lower level," which increases mainly due to the fact that labourers are working to repair houses and buildings. On the other hand, landslides and slope failures were much more prevalent in the Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake, resulting in more accidents occurring in geotechnical works rather than in construction works. Therefore, care should be taken in preventing "fall to lower level" accidents associated with repair work on the roofs of low-rise houses, "cut or abrasion" accidents due to the demolition of damaged houses and "caught in or compressed by equipment" accidents in road works and water and sewage works.
Aochi, Hideo; Yoshimi, Masayuki
We study the ground motion simulations based on three finite-source models for the 2007 Mw6.6 Niigata Chuetsu-oki, Japan, earthquake in order to discuss the performance of the input ground motion estimations for the near-field seismic hazard analysis. The three models include a kinematic source inverted from the regional accelerations, a dynamic source on a planar fault with three asperities inferred from the very-near-field ground motion particle motions, and another dynamic source model with conjugate fault segments. The ground motions are calculated for an available 3D geological model using a finite-difference method. For the comparison, we apply a goodness-of-fit score to the ground motion parameters at different stations, including the nearest one that is almost directly above the ruptured fault segments. The dynamic rupture models show good performance. We find that seismologically inferred earthquake asperities on a single fault plane can be expressed with two conjugate segments. The rupture transfer from one segment to another can generate a significant radiation; this could be interpreted as an asperity projected onto a single fault plane. This example illustrates the importance of the fault geometry that has to be taken into account when estimating the very-near-field ground motion.
Irikura, K.; Kagawa, T.; Miyakoshi, K.; Kurahashi, S.
The Niigataken Chuetsu-Oki earthquake occurred on July 16, 2007, northwest-off Kashiwazaki in Niigata Prefecture, Japan, causing severe damages of ten people dead, about 1300 injured, about 1000 collapsed houses and major lifelines suspended. In particular, strong ground motions from the earthquake struck the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant (hereafter KKNPP), triggering a fire at an electric transformer and other problems such as leakage of water containing radioactive materials into air and the sea, although the radioactivity levels of the releases are as low as those of the radiation which normal citizens would receive from the natural environment in a year. The source mechanism of this earthquake is a reverse fault, but whether it is the NE-SW strike and NW dip or the SW-NE strike and SE dip are still controversial from the aftershock distribution and geological surveys near the source. Results of the rupture processes inverted by using the GPS and SAR data, tsunami data and teleseismic data so far did not succeed in determining which fault planes moved. Strong ground motions were recorded at about 390 stations by the K-NET of NIED including the stations very close to the source area. There was the KKNPP which is probably one of buildings and facilities closest to the source area. They have their own strong motion network with 22 three-components' accelerographs locating at ground-surface, underground, buildings and basements of reactors. The PGA attenuation-distance relationships made setting the fault plane estimated from the GPS data generally follow the empirical relations in Japan, for example, Fukushima and Tanaka (1990) and Si and Midorikawa (1999), even if either fault plane, SE dip or NW dip, is assumed. However, the strong ground motions in the site of the KKNPP had very large accelerations and velocities more than those expected from the empirical relations. The surface motions there had the PGA of more than 1200 gals and even underground
Preliminary findings and lessons learned from the 16 July 2007 earthquake at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP- 'The Niigataken Chuetsu-Oki earthquake, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP and Tokyo, Japan, 6-10 August 2007. Mission report. V. 1
Upon request from the Government of Japan an IAEA expert mission was conducted at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP following a strong earthquake that affected the plant on 16 July 2007. The objective, as agreed with the Japanese counterpart, was to conduct a fact finding mission and to identify the preliminary lessons learned that might have implications for the international nuclear safety regime. Although the Niigataken Chuetsu-Oki earthquake on 16 July 2007 significantly exceeded the level of the seismic input taken into account in the design of the plant, the installation behaved in a safe manner, during and after the earthquake. In particular, the automatic shutdown of the reactors of Units 3, 4 and 7, which were operating at full power, and of the reactor of Unit 2, which was in the start up state, were performed successfully. Based on the reports from experts from the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) and the limited but representative plant walkdowns and visual observations performed by the IAEA team, safety related structures, systems and components of the plant seem to be in a much better general condition than might be expected for such a strong earthquake, and there is no visible significant damage. This is probably due to the conservatisms introduced at different stages of the design process. The combined effects of these conservatisms were apparently sufficient to compensate for uncertainties in the data and methods available at the time of the design of the plant, which led to the underestimation of the original seismic input. However, important components like the reactor vessels, the core internals and the fuel elements have not yet been examined and in-depth inspections are still to be performed. On the other hand, non-safety related structures, systems and components were affected by significant damage such as soil and anchorage failures and oil leakages. A re-evaluation of the seismic safety the Kashiwazika-Kariwa NPP needs to be done with account
Estimation of strong motions on free rock surface. Identification of soil structures and strong motions on free rock surface in Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant during the 2007 Niigataken Chuetsu-oki earthquake
Very strong ground motions (maximum acceleration 993 cm/s2 in the borehole seismometer point of -255m in depth) were observed in the Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant during the Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake on July 16, 2007. In this study, we tried to develop new method, which can simulate waveforms on free rock surface by using the bore hole records. We identified the underground structure model at the Service Hall from aftershock records observed in vertical array, using the simulated annealing method (Ingber(1989)). Based on numerical experiments it is identified that S-wave velocity and Q values of individual layers are inverted very well. Strong motion records of main shock observed by the bore hole seismometers were simulated by using one-dimensional multiple reflection method. In this study, non-linear effect is considered by introducing non-linear coefficient c(f) for under coming wave from surface. The maximum acceleration and phase characteristics in simulated waveforms are similar to the observed one. It means that our method is useful for simulate strong motion in non-linear region. Finally, strong motions on the free rock surface at the Service Hall during the main shock are simulated. The maximum acceleration of EW component on free rock surface is estimated to be 1,207 cm/s2. (author)
Akashi, Makoto; Kumagaya, Ken; Kondo, Hisayoshi; Hirose, Yasuo
An earthquake measuring 6.8 on the Richter scale struck the Niigata-Chuetsu region of Japan at 10:13 on 16 July 2007. The earthquake was followed by the sustained occurrence of numerous aftershocks, delaying the reconstruction of community lifelines. The earthquake affected the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plants (NPPs), the biggest NPP site in the world. The earthquake caused damage to NPPs, resulting in a small amount of radioactive materials being released into the air and the sea. However, no significant effects were detected in the public and the environment. As medical response to this earthquake, 42 Disaster Medical Assistance Teams (DMATs) were sent to hospitals and first-aid care centers at the NPP site. In order to evaluate the perceptions of the deployed DMAT personnel regarding concerns about the health effects of radiation and information about the damage to NPPs, questionnaires were sent to 40 facilities that dispatched DMATs to the earthquake area. Most of them were concerned with the effects of radiation, and adequate information about the problems at the NPPs was not communicated to them. This preliminary study suggests that communication of information is extremely important for DMAT members in the case of disasters, in particular if there exists a possibility of radiation exposure, since radiation cannot be detected by our senses. DMAT members are critical to any mass casualty incident, whether caused by humans or nature. We have learned from this earthquake that there is urgent need for an all-hazards approach, including a "combined disaster" strategy, which should be emphasized for current disaster planning and response. This is the first report on DMATs deployed to an earthquake site with damage to NPPs. PMID:20445385
Preliminary findings and lessons learned from the 16 July 2007 earthquake at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP - 'The Niigataken Chuetsu-Oki earthquake', Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP and Tokyo, Japan, 6-10 August 2007. Mission report. V. 2
photographs are presented that give the impression of the way the mission was conducted and showing the atmosphere of the mission, such as the meetings and encounters with the media. The preparatory meeting held at the hotel in Nagaoke, upon arrival on Sunday, is portrayed in the first photograph. The arrival at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP on Monday and the encounter with the media and the technical meetings at the plant are shown in the next three photographs. The interest of the media to this event is also shown in the next two photographs taken at the exit of the meetings in the plant and in Tokyo. In the last photograph the IAEA expert team is shown at the hotel after delivery of the draft mission report to Japanese authorities. Subsequently, Volume II is organized in the following way: 1. Part I: BACKGROUND. First of all, there is a significant amount of information provided by NISA, JNES and TEPCO as general background. This information mainly relates to Japanese regulations and general data about the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP and does not pertain specifically to the 16 July 2007 event. All this information is presented under the title of 'Background' and it is not necessarily referenced to any particular discussion area of the mission. 2. Part II: INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO THE THREE AREAS COVERED BY THE MISSION AS SUPPLIED BY THE JAPANESE COUNTERPART. Secondly, there is information supplied by the Japanese counterpart as information specifically relevant to the purpose of the mission, that is, the 16 July 2007 Niigataken Chuetsu-oki earthquake and in general the plant response to this event. This information includes the presentations made by counterpart specialists at the beginning of the mission and also their response to the queries raised by the IAEA team members during the course of the mission. These presentations and the responses are presented under the three discussion areas A1, A2 and A3. If a presentation or response pertains to more than one area this is also
Follow-up IAEA mission in relation to the findings and lessons learned from the 16 July 2007 earthquake at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP - 'The Niigataken Chuetsu-oki earthquake', Tokyo and Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP, Japan, 28 January - 1 February 2008. Mission report. V. 1
On 16 July 2007, a strong earthquake, the Niigataken Chuetsu-oki earthquake, with a moment magnitude of 6.6 (MJMA=6.8 according to the Japanese Meteorological Agency), occurred at 10:13 h local time with its hypocentre below the seabed of the Jo-chuetsu area in Niigata prefecture (37 deg. 33' N, 138 deg. 37'E) in Japan, affecting the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) located approximately 16 km south of its epicentre. Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP is the biggest nuclear power plant site in the world. It is located in the Niigata prefecture, in the northwest coast of Japan, and it is operated by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). The site has seven units with a total of 7965 MW net installed capacity. Five reactors are of BWR type and two reactors are of ABWR type. The five BWR units entered commercial operation between 1985 and 1994 and the two ABWRs in 1996 and 1997, respectively. Following this event, the Government of Japan through the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) requested the IAEA to carry out a fact finding mission with the main purpose of identifying the preliminary findings and lessons learned from this event in order to share them with the international nuclear community. This first mission took place from 6 - 10 August 2007 and the mission report of the August 2007 mission is available on the IAEA web page http://www.iaea.org. The purpose of the second IAEA mission was to conduct - six months after the event - a follow-up of the preliminary findings of the August 2007 mission on the basis of the results available in January 2008 of the related studies and investigations performed. In accordance with the terms of reference for the follow-up mission and the availability of results from the performed studies and investigations, the scope of the follow-up mission focussed on three subject areas: (1) seismic design basis - design basis ground motions, including the evaluation of the seismic hazard ; (2) plant behaviour - integrity
Analysis of the strong motion records obtained from the 2007 Niigataken Chuetsuoki earthquake and determination of the design basis ground motions at the Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant. Part 3. Determination of the design basis ground motions considering findings from the earthquake
In the presentation, the new design basis ground motion on the basis of the factors that magnified the earthquake ground motion at the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant in the Niigataken Chuetsu-oki earthquake, which were examined in the part 1 and the part 2 is determined
The present study discusses strength and capacity to accommodate ground displacement of jointed fire pipes. For this purpose, a bending test, a finite element analysis and an elastic beam theory analysis were conducted. The bending experiments were conducted for four types of actually used joints, namely a welded joint, a flange joint, a screw joint and a coupling joint. The relationships between the bending moment and the rotation angle at the joint were investigated based on the experimental results. As a result, the welded joint and the flange joint had a significant load capacity if compared with the couple joint. The ratio of the load capacity of the coupled joint to the welded joint was about five times. Furthermore, the bending moment and the rotation angle were identified when the inner pressure of water became the atmospheric pressure based on the bending experiment. In addition, the limit state of the welded joint was determined based on the finite element analysis result. Finally, capacities to accommodate ground displacement for respective joint were estimated based on the elastic beam theory. Consequently, the displacement capacity of the welded joint was more than about five times that of the coupling and screw joints. (author)
Toyosawa, Yasuo; Itoh, Kazuya; Kikkawa, Naotaka
Occupational safety and health in disaster restoration activity following the Great Hanshin Earthquake (1995), Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake (2004), Niigata Chuetsu-oki Earthquake (2007) Great East Japan Earthquake (2011) were analyzed and characterized in order to raise awareness on the risks and hazards in such work. In this scenario, the predominant type of accident is a "fall" which increases mainly due to the fact that labourers are working to repair houses and buildings. On the other hand, landslides were prevalent in the Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake, resulting in more accidents occurring during geotechnical works rather than in buildings construction works. In the abnormal conditions that characterize recovery activities, when safety and health measures have a tendency to be neglected, it is important to reinstate adequate measures as soon as possible by carrying out the usial risk assessments.
Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Hattori, Katsumi; Kafatos, Menas; Taylor, Patrick
We are studying the possibility of a connection between atmospheric observation recorded by several ground and satellites as earthquakes precursors. Our main goal is to search for the existence and cause of physical phenomenon related to prior earthquake activity and to gain a better understanding of the physics of earthquake and earthquake cycles. The recent catastrophic earthquake in Japan in March 2011 has provided a renewed interest in the important question of the existence of precursory signals preceding strong earthquakes. We will demonstrate our approach based on integration and analysis of several atmospheric and environmental parameters that were found associated with earthquakes. These observations include: thermal infrared radiation, radon! ion activities; air temperature and humidity and a concentration of electrons in the ionosphere. We describe a possible physical link between atmospheric observations with earthquake precursors using the latest Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling model, one of several paradigms used to explain our observations. Initial results for the period of2003-2009 are presented from our systematic hind-cast validation studies. We present our findings of multi-sensor atmospheric precursory signals for two major earthquakes in Japan, M6.7 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki of July16, 2007 and the latest M9.0 great Tohoku earthquakes of March 11,2011
In recent years, huge earthquakes happen, for example, The South Hyogo prefecture Earthquake in 1995, The Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake in 2004, The Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake in 2008. In The Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007, hundreds of drums fell down and water spilled out. A lot of studies about rocking behavior of rigid body had been performed from 1960's. However, these studies were only for a specific condition of the structure size or input vibration characteristics. Therefore, generalizes fall condition for earthquake is required. This paper deals with the analytical and the experimental study of the rocking vibration of 1-DOF rocking system, 2-DOF vibration-rocking system and 2-DOF rocking system under earthquakes. In this study, the equation of motion for each rocking systems are developed. The numerical model of 2-DOF rocking system is evaluated by free rocking experiment. In this paper, 'Overturning Map' which can distinguish whether structures falls or not is proposed. The overturning map of each rocking systems excited by the artificial earthquake wave calculated from the design spectrum is shown. As the result, overturning condition of structures is clarified. (author)
Based on results of activities of committee on seismic safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering, which started activities after Chuetsu-oki earthquake and then experienced Great East Japan Earthquake, (under close collaboration with the committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan started activities simultaneously), and taking account of further development of concept, agenda on nuclear safety were proposed from earthquake engineering. In order to prevent recurrence of nuclear disaster, individual technical issues of earthquake engineering and comprehensive issues of integration technology, multidisciplinary collaboration and establishment of technology governance based on them were of prime importance. This article described important problems to be solved; (1) technical issues and mission of seismic safety of NPPs, (2) decision making based on risk assessment - basis of technical governance, (3) framework of risk, design and regulation - framework of required technology governance, (4) technical issues of earthquake engineering for nuclear safety, (5) role of earthquake engineering in nuclear power risk communication and (6) importance of multidisciplinary collaboration. Responsibility of engineering would be attributed to establishment of technology governance, cultivation of individual technology and integration technology, and social communications. (T. Tanaka)
The aims of this study are to establish a post-earthquake plant evaluation method and to develop a communication system for the improving seismic safety regulations as well as encouraging public communication. The Miyagiken-oki earthquake in 2005, Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant shut down automatically. Subsequently, JNES started development of post-earthquake plant evaluation and communication system based on the experience of the cross-check analysis for Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant. The Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007, the plant situation was not transmitted promptly. The loss of information sharing between local community and related organizations caused the public anxiety. The importance of plant information transmission as well as seismic information gathering were recognized. The proposal for the solution of the information issues were performed by government committee. In this study, the evaluation method for soundness of the main structure and equipment after earthquake event were updated. Moreover, procedure of the post-earthquake plant soundness evaluation and multi-functional seismic information system were developed. In addition, the implementation strategy of the easy-to -understand information dissemination to the public and transparent communication methodology was examined by the Industry-Academia-Government cooperation in the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa region. (author)
The aims of this study are to establish a post-earthquake plant evaluation method and to develop a communication system for the improving seismic safety regulations as well as encouraging public communication. The Miyagiken-oki earthquake in 2005, Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant shut down automatically. Subsequently, JNES started development of post-earthquake plant evaluation and communication system based on the experience of the cross-check analysis for Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant. The Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007, the plant situation was not transmitted promptly. The loss of information sharing between local community and related organizations caused the public anxiety. The importance of plant information transmission as well as seismic information gathering were recognized. The proposal for the solution of the information issues were performed by government committee, In this study the evaluation method for soundness of the main structure and equipment after earthquake event were updated. Moreover, information dissemination to the public and transparent communication methodology was examined by the Industry-Academia-Government cooperation in the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa region. (author)
Kojima, Kotaro [Department of Architecture and Architectural Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto 615-8540 (Japan); Kamagata, Shuichi [Nuclear Power Department, Kajima Corporation, Tokyo 107-8348 (Japan); Takewaki, Izuru, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Department of Architecture and Architectural Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto 615-8540 (Japan)
Highlights: • A new interpretation of large earthquake accelerations is provided. • Non-linear interaction between an embedded building and its surrounding soil is a key. • A bi-linear restoring-force characteristic with a gap-slip process is used for analysis. • Ricker wavelet and a continuous sweep sinusoidal wave are adopted as input. • The amplification is induced by a higher mode due to the change of a support condition. - Abstract: A new interpretation of large amplitude earthquake accelerations recorded at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power station during the Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake in 2007 is provided from the viewpoint of non-linear local interaction between an embedded building and its surrounding soil. An occurrence mechanism is investigated by the dynamic response analysis in which a bi-linear restoring-force characteristic with a gap-slip process is used. The Ricker wavelet and the continuous sweep sinusoidal wave are adopted as an input. The amplification is explained to be induced by an additional higher mode due to the change of a support condition, such as a gap between an embedded building and its surrounding soil.
Highlights: • A new interpretation of large earthquake accelerations is provided. • Non-linear interaction between an embedded building and its surrounding soil is a key. • A bi-linear restoring-force characteristic with a gap-slip process is used for analysis. • Ricker wavelet and a continuous sweep sinusoidal wave are adopted as input. • The amplification is induced by a higher mode due to the change of a support condition. - Abstract: A new interpretation of large amplitude earthquake accelerations recorded at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power station during the Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake in 2007 is provided from the viewpoint of non-linear local interaction between an embedded building and its surrounding soil. An occurrence mechanism is investigated by the dynamic response analysis in which a bi-linear restoring-force characteristic with a gap-slip process is used. The Ricker wavelet and the continuous sweep sinusoidal wave are adopted as an input. The amplification is explained to be induced by an additional higher mode due to the change of a support condition, such as a gap between an embedded building and its surrounding soil
The objective of this present series of researches is a development of damage level evaluation method for underground structures which have been subjected to large ground motion. In part 2, items for evaluating and criteria corresponding to them were embodied considering practical use. In the developed method, data of crack width remaining after earthquakes and unusual sound area by hammering test are necessary as inspection records. Check items are constituted of flexural damage focusing on compression of concrete and on tension of rebar, and shear damage focusing on the width of inclined or splitting cracks. The procedure for calculating the maximum deflection angle of member under ground motion and threshold values for shear damage were introduced from Part 1. Moreover, the charts which assist to convert the crack width into rebar strain in a close distance were prepared using the slip formula suggested by Shima. Finally, the use of the developed method was demonstrated through a case study for a real box culvert which experienced the Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007. (author)
Although Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station was affected by Chuetsu-Oki earthquake, the important components in the reactor building were hardly damaged, and fundamental nuclear safety was ensured. However, as the mass communication media reported the pictures of the black smoke of fire accident of the transformer, sloshing of the pool, etc. without declaration of 'Safety' by the Central Government or sufficient explanation, the habitants on the site and the Japan's people were put into anxiety and thus, harmful rumor was spread. The people obtain the information from the mass communication media, and they believed all the reports of the mass media. Behind it, there is a fundamental knowledge among them that Radiation = 'dangerous', 'bad for health' and 'awful' = Nuclear Power Generation. This knowledge has been fixed more firmly due to the report of the earthquake damage. In order to escape from this deep-rooted scheme, it is necessary to spread the correct knowledge on the radiation. At this time, the Official Curriculum Guidelines for Junior High School are revised, and the radiation education is started for the first time in 30 years. We analyzed and evaluated the results of the survey performed by Radiation Education Forum, and, simultaneously, we considered the necessity of the radiation education judging from the reports of the mass communication media. (author)
Machida, Y.; Shimbo, T.; Shinohara, M.; Mochizuki, K.; Yamada, T.; Kanazawa, T.
At the eastern margin of the Japan Sea, large earthquakes have been occurred (e.g., 1964 Niigata earthquake, the 1983 Japan Sea earthquake, the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake and the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake) along the Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone (NKTZ). The NKTZ is recognized as a region of large strain rate along the Japan Sea coast and in the northern Chubu and Kinki distinct. Among these events, the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake and the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake is triggered by reactivation of pre-existing faults within ancient rift systems by stress loading through a ductile creeping of the weak lower crust (Kato et al., 2008). Because the tectonic zone is thought to be spread in offshore region, it is difficult to understand a precise activity of the tectonic zone from only land-base observations. In order to understand precise seismic activities in the NKTZ, especially in offshore region, we installed Ocean Bottom Cabled Seismometers (OBCSs) in the source region of the 1964 Niigata earthquake in 2010 (Shinohara et al., 2010). The OBCS system has a length of 25 km and 4 OBCSs were developed with 5 km interval. The OBCSs have three accelerometers as seismic sensor. We estimated hypocenters using a locations program for finding a maximum likelihood solution using a Bayesian approach (Hirata and Matsu'ura, 1987). We used a simple one dimensional Vp structure, and we assumed a Vp/Vs of 1.73. In general, seismic waves recorded by OBCSs arrive later than those estimated from the average structural model due to unconsolidated sediments just below the sea floor. Therefore the delay of arrival times by the sedimentary layer should be taken into account for the location. In 2011, a seismic survey using airgun and OBCSs was carried out to obtain a seismic velocity model. We obtained station corrections of the P- and S-arrivals for each station using differences of traveltimes estimated by the assumed model and the actual model. This procedure helps us to obtain precise seismic
The International Workshop on Lessons Learned from Strong Earthquake was held at Kashiwazaki civic plaza, Kashiwazaki, Niigata-prefecture, Japan, for three days in June 2008. Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP (KK-NPP) is located in the city of Kashiwazaki and the village of Kariwa, and owned and operated by Tokyo Electric Power Company Ltd. (TEPCO). After it experienced the Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake in July 2007, IAEA dispatched experts' missions twice and held technical discussions with TEPCO. Through such activities, the IAEA secretariat and experts obtained up-dated information of plant integrity, geological and seismological evaluation and developments of the consultation in the regulatory framework of Japan. Some of the information has been shared with the member states through the reports on findings and lessons learned from the missions to Japan. The international workshop was held to discuss and share the information of lessons learned from strong earthquakes in member states' nuclear installations. It provided the opportunity for participants from abroad to share the information of the recent earthquake and experience in Japan and to visit KK-NPP. And for experts in Japan, the workshop provided the opportunity to share the international approach on seismic-safety-related measures and experiences. The workshop was organised by the IAEA as a part of an extra budgetary project, in cooperation with OECD/NEA, hosted by Japanese organisations including Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), Nuclear Safety Commission (NSC), and Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES). The number of the workshop participants was 70 experts from outside Japan, 27 countries and 2 international organisations, 154 Japanese experts and 81 audience and media personnel, totalling to 305 participants. The three-day workshop was open to the media including the site visit, and covered by NHK (the nation's public broadcasting corporation) and nation-wide and local television
Tosi, P; Loreto, V; Pietronero, L; Tosi, Patrizia; Rubeis, Valerio De; Loreto, Vittorio; Pietronero, Luciano
Short and long range interactions between earthquakes are attracting increasing interest. Scale invariant properties of seismicity in time, space and energy argue for the presence of complex triggering mechanisms where, like a cascade process, each event produces aftershocks. A definitive method to assess any connection between two earthquakes separated in time and distance does not exist. Here we propose a novel method of data analysis that, based on the space-time combined generalization of the correlation integral leads to a self-consistent visualization and analysis of both spatial and temporal correlations. When analyzing global seismicity we discovered a universal relation linking the spatial Influence Length of a given earthquake to the time elapsed from the event itself. Following an event, time correlations (i.e. causality effects) exist in a region that shrinks over time, suggesting a long-range dissipating stress transfer. A different process is acting in the short-range where events are randomly s...
Magrin, Andrea; Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano F.
The neo-deterministic approach to seismic zoning, NDSHA, relies on physically sound modelling of ground shaking from a large set of credible scenario earthquakes, which can be defined based on seismic history and seismotectonics, as well as incorporating information from a wide set of geological and geophysical data (e.g. morphostructural features and present day deformation processes identified by Earth observations). NDSHA is based on the calculation of complete synthetic seismograms; hence it does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. ground motion prediction equations). From the set of synthetic seismograms, maps of seismic hazard that describe the maximum of different ground shaking parameters at the bedrock can be produced. As a rule, the NDSHA, defines the hazard as the envelope ground shaking at the site, computed from all of the defined seismic sources; accordingly, the simplest outcome of this method is a map where the maximum of a given seismic parameter is associated to each site. In this way, the standard NDSHA maps permit to account for the largest observed or credible earthquake sources identified in the region in a quite straightforward manner. This study aims to assess the influence of unavoidable uncertainties in the characterisation of large scenario earthquakes on the NDSHA estimates. The treatment of uncertainties is performed by sensitivity analyses for key modelling parameters and accounts for the uncertainty in the prediction of fault radiation and in the use of Green's function for a given medium. Results from sensitivity analyses with respect to the definition of possible seismic sources are discussed. A key parameter is the magnitude of seismic sources used in the simulation, which is based on information from earthquake catalogue, seismogenic zones and seismogenic nodes. The largest part of the existing Italian catalogues is based on macroseismic intensities, a rough estimate of the error in peak values of ground motion can
正A serious earthquake happened in Wenchuan, Sichuan. Over 60,000 people died in the earhtquake, millins of people lost their homes. After the earthquake, people showed their love in different ways. Some gave food, medicine and everything necessary, some gave money,
Kulangara Madham Subrahmanian, D.; Sri Ganesh, J.; Venkata Ramana Murthy, M.; V, R. M.
After Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) on 26th December, 2004, attempts are being made to assess the threat of tsunami originating from different sources for different parts of India. The Andaman - Sumatra trench is segmented by transcurrent faults and differences in the rate of subduction which is low in the north and increases southward. Therefore key board model with initial deformation calculated using different strike directions, slip rates, are used. This results in uncertainties in the earthquake parameters. This study is made to identify the location of origin of most destructive tsunami for Southeast coast of India and to infer the influence of the earthquake parameters in tsunami wave height travel time in deep ocean as well as in the shelf and inundation in the coast. Five tsunamigenic sources were considered in the Andaman - Sumatra trench taking into consideration the tectonic characters of the trench described by various authors and the modeling was carried out using TUNAMI N2 code. The model results were validated using the travel time and runup in the coastal areas and comparing the water elevation along Jason - 1's satellite track. The inundation results are compared from the field data. The assessment of the tsunami threat for the area south of Chennai city the metropolitan city of South India shows that a tsunami originating in Car Nicobar segment of the Andaman - Sumatra subduction zone can generate the most destructive tsunami. Sensitivity analysis in the modelling indicates that fault length influences the results significantly and the tsunami reaches early and with higher amplitude. Strike angle is also modifying the tsunami followed by amount of slip.
Wang, Shih-Jung; Hsu, Kuo-Chin; Lai, Wen-Chi; Wang, Chein-Lee
Groundwater level variations associated with earthquake events may reveal useful information. This study estimates the extent of stress influence, defined as the distance over which an earthquake can induce a step change of the groundwater level, using earthquake-triggering groundwater level variations in Taiwan. Groundwater variations were first characterized based on the dynamics of groundwater level changes dominantly triggered by earthquakes. The step-change data in co-seismic groundwater level variations were used to analyze the extent of stress influence for earthquakes. From the data analysis, the maximum extent of stress influence is 250 km around Taiwan. A two-dimensional approach was adopted to develop two models for estimating the maximum extent of stress influence for earthquakes. From the developed models, the extent of stress influence is proportional to the earthquake magnitude and inversely proportional to the groundwater level change. The model equations can be used to calculate the influence radius of stress from an earthquake by using the observed change of groundwater level and the earthquake magnitude. The models were applied to estimate the area of anomalous stress, defined as the possible areas where the strain energy is accumulated, using the cross areas method. The results show that the estimated area of anomalous stress is close to the epicenter. Complex geological structures and material heterogeneity and anisotropy may explain this disagreement. More data collection and model refinements can improve the proposed model. This study shows the potential of using groundwater level variations for capturing seismic information. The proposed concept of extent of stress influence can be used to estimate the earthquake effect in hydraulic engineering, mining engineering, and carbon dioxide sequestration, etc. This study provides a concept for estimating the possible areas of anomalous stress for a forthcoming earthquake.
... Emergency Wound Care Wound Management for Healthcare Pros Power Outages When the Power Goes Out Worker Safety Vaccine ... Share Compartir Surviving an earthquake and reducing its health impact requires preparation, planning, and practice. Far in advance, ...
CHENGDU,China—A powerful earthquake struck Western China on 12th May2008, toppling thousands of homes,factories and offices,trapping students in schools,the country’s worst natural disaster in three decades.MIANZHU,CHINA—As rescue workers plowed deeper into the wreckage left from Monday’s earthquake,uncovering more victims trapped in the most remote mountain villages near the epicenter in Sichuan Province
Takao, M.; Mizutani, H.
At about 10:13 on July 16, 2007, a strong earthquake named 'Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake' of Mj6.8 on Japan Meteorological Agencyfs scale occurred offshore Niigata prefecture in Japan. However, all of the nuclear reactors at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station (KKNPS) in Niigata prefecture operated by Tokyo Electric Power Company shut down safely. In other words, automatic safety function composed of shutdown, cooling and containment worked as designed immediately after the earthquake. During the earthquake, the peak acceleration of the ground motion exceeded the design-basis ground motion (DBGM), but the force due to the earthquake applied to safety-significant facilities was about the same as or less than the design basis taken into account as static seismic force. In order to assess anew the safety of nuclear power plants, we have evaluated a new DBGM after conducting geomorphological, geological, geophysical, seismological survey and analyses. [Geomorphological, Geological and Geophysical survey] In the land area, aerial photograph interpretation was performed at least within the 30km radius to extract geographies that could possibly be tectonic reliefs as a geomorphological survey. After that, geological reconnaissance was conducted to confirm whether the extracted landforms are tectonic reliefs or not. Especially we carefully investigated Nagaoka Plain Western Boundary Fault Zone (NPWBFZ), which consists of Kakuda-Yahiko fault, Kihinomiya fault and Katakai fault, because NPWBFZ is the one of the active faults which have potential of Mj8 class in Japan. In addition to the geological survey, seismic reflection prospecting of approximate 120km in total length was completed to evaluate the geological structure of the faults and to assess the consecutiveness of the component faults of NPWBFZ. As a result of geomorphological, geological and geophysical surveys, we evaluated that the three component faults of NPWBFZ are independent to each other from the
The analysis of boiling two-phase flow in a simulated fuel channel under the condition that earthquake acceleration is imposed on was performed in order to evaluate the influence of earthquake acceleration upon the boiling two-phase flow behavior in fuel bundles of nuclear reactors. From a series of numerical simulations, the following summaries were derived: when the earthquake acceleration is given to the horizontal direction, time change of the predicted void fraction aries a time lag depending on an oscillation period of earthquake and the time lag is maintained; and, the fluctuation characteristic of the predicted void fraction receives strongly the influence of lift force and turbulent force to the oscillation period of earthquake. (author)
Reymann, Marie Emilie Leth; Pedersen, Mitzi; Mortensen, Thor Storm; Nat-George, Jonathan Arthur; Prole, Rebekah Anne
This project is an analysis of the media coverage of both the Tsunami in South East Asia and the earthquake in Pakistan. This comparison has lead to the conclusion that the Tsunami received most coverage and this project tries to answer why and how media chooses so. In connection to the funding received there has been drawn a parallel between the minutes of coverage (Tv2-news) and the amount given. Furthermore this project contains the background details of the two events, a comparison of ...
Løvholt, Finn; Kim, Jihwan; Pedersen, Geir; Harbitz, Carl
The standard approach in forward modeling of earthquake tsunamis usually assume a uniform slip pattern. This is assumption is used both in deterministic and probabilistic models. However, the slip distribution for an earthquake is subject to (aleatory) uncertainty, and consequently the induced tsunami run-up will have an uncertainty range even given the same moment magnitude and hypocentre earthquake location. Here, we present studies of run-up variability due to stochastic earthquake slip variation in both two and three dimensions. The approach taken is fully idealized, although we draw upon the experience from two of the most destructive events the last hundred years, namely the Mw8 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake and tsunami as well as the Mw9 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami. The former event is used to design the two-dimensional stochastic simulations, and the latter event the three-dimensional simulations. Our primary focus is not reproduce past run-up, but rather to investigate how the hydrodynamics influence uncertainty. These quantities include among others the non-hydrodynamic response during generation, frequency dispersion, friction from the seabed, and wave-breaking. We simulate tsunamis for an ensemble of synthetic random slip over an idealized shelf geometry broken into linear segments. The uncertainty propagation from source to run-up for the two different cases are discussed and compared. As demonstrated, both the dimensionality and the earthquake parameters influence the contributions of the hydrodynamic parameters on the uncertainty. Further work will be needed to explore the transitional behaviour between the two very different cases displayed here. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 603839 (Project ASTARTE).
Pentaris, Fragkiskos P.; Makris, John P.
This work aims to investigate the statistics of earthquake influence on buildings by studying the correlation of earthquake parameters (magnitude, epicentral distance, azimuth, depth) with the observed seismic acceleration of different floors of a building, as well as of buildings of different age. Crete is on the Hellenic arc, a region with very high seismicity. The study exploits the significant and miscellaneous seismicity of the Southern Hellenic Arc (Greece). Structural Health Monitoring Systems (SHMs), composed by high sensitivity accelerometers, are installed in two different age neighboring buildings, each one consisting two floors, of the Technological Educational Institute of Crete (TEI) located in a suburb of the Chania city (Western Crete). Both SHMs are continuously operating more than a year having recorded a great amount of seismic acceleration data from low, medium and high magnitude earthquakes, featuring various epicentral distances and azimuths. A detailed statistical analysis is being performed in order to correlate the seismic responses of the two buildings, characterized by different vulnerability, with key-parameters of associated earthquakes. Furthermore, we examine the earthquake influence on the two buildings before and after a major nearby seismic event to investigate a possible change in the buildings vulnerability. Acknowledgements This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund - ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: ARCHIMEDES III. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund.
An additional natural source of the global warming could be heat flux from seismicity. Estimated earthquakes energy release in the near-equatorial Pacific area during a year ≈ 1020 J that is equivalent to the energy released in the detonation about one million atomic bombs of Hiroshima class and produce average power flux due to seismicity ≈ 0.3-1 W/m2 . We have analyzed together the slow climate temperature variations in the near-equatorial Pacific Ocean area (SSTOI indices) and crustal seismic activity in the same region during 1973-2008 time period using correlation analysis and found similarity in seismic and ENSO periodicities (the latter with time lag about 1.5 years). Trends of the processes are also similar showing about 2 times increase in average seismic energy release during the whole period of analysis and conventional 0.10C/(10 years) increase in SSTOI index anomalies. Our main conclusion is on real possibility of climate-seismicity coupling. It is rather probable that at least partially climate ENSO oscillations and temperature anomaly trends are induced by similar variation in seismicity. A mechanism of several years periodicity in the seismic activity is unclear at present. Probably it is initiated in the upper mantle of the Earth (depth 600-700 km) and then penetrates in the crust as so-called deformation (or stress) wave with time delay from 3 to 10 years   O.A. Molchanov and S. Uyeda, Upward migration of earthquake hypocenters in Japan,Kurile- Kamchatka and Sunda subduction zones, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 34, 423-430, 2009; doi:10.1016/j.pce.2008.09.011.
Wang Bo; Huang Fuqiong; Jian Chunlin
The paper analyzes the radon data of nearly two decades on the Jiayuguan fault zone, discusses the main influencing factors, and puts forward the relationship between radon and air temperature, ground temperature and rainfall. We summarized the earthquake reflecting effect for ML≥5. 0 about 400km within the Jiayuguan station, and reached the conclusion that it has better earthquake-reflecting ability before an earthquake, usually appearing as abnormal changes in sustained low value. By extracting the annual trend of radon in Jiayuguan station over many years, we discovered that the annual trend of radon has a close relationship with the seismic activity in surrounding areas, namely, if the annual variation of radon is larger, the seismic activity in surrounding areas is stronger; Otherwise, if the annual variation of radon is relatively stable, the seismic activity in the vicinity is weak.
Bhloscaidh, Mairead Nic; McCloskey, John; Pelling, Mark; Naylor, Mark
Until expensive engineering solutions become more universally available, the objective targeting of resources at demonstrably effective, low-cost interventions might help reverse the trend of increasing mortality in earthquakes. Death tolls in earthquakes are the result of complex interactions between physical effects, such as the exposure of the population to strong shaking, and the resilience of the exposed population along with supporting critical infrastructures and institutions. The identification of socio-economic factors that contribute to earthquake mortality is crucial to identifying and developing successful risk management strategies. Here we develop a quantitative methodology more objectively to assess the ability of communities to withstand earthquake shaking, focusing on, in particular, those cases where risk management performance appears to exceed or fall below expectations based on economic status. Using only published estimates of the shaking intensity and population exposure for each earthquake, data that is available for earthquakes in countries irrespective of their level of economic development, we develop a model for mortality based on the contribution of population exposure to shaking only. This represents an attempt to remove, as far as possible, the physical causes of mortality from our analysis (where we consider earthquake engineering to reduce building collapse among the socio-economic influences). The systematic part of the variance with respect to this model can therefore be expected to be dominated by socio-economic factors. We find, as expected, that this purely physical analysis partitions countries in terms of basic socio-economic measures, for example GDP, focusing analytical attention on the power of economic measures to explain variance in observed distributions of earthquake risk. The model allows the definition of a vulnerability index which, although broadly it demonstrates the expected income-dependence of vulnerability to
Full Text Available This study examines the global earthquake detection capability of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT catalogue during the periods immediately following large earthquakes, including intermediate-depth (70 ≤ depth < 300 km and deep (300 km ≤ depth events. We have already shown that the detection capability beyond an aftershock zone degrades remarkably and that this condition persists for several hours after the occurrence of large shallow (depth < 70 km earthquakes. Because an intermediate-depth or deep earthquake occasionally generates seismic waves with significant amplitudes, it is necessary to investigate the change in the detection capability caused by such events. To this end, from the GCMT catalogue, we constructed the time sequences of the earthquakes that occurred immediately after the large earthquakes, and stacked these time sequences. To these stacked sequences, we then applied a statistical model representing the magnitude-frequency distribution of all observed earthquakes. This model has a parameter that characterizes the detection capability, and the temporal variation of the parameter is estimated by means of a Bayesian approach with a piecewise linear function. Consequently, we find that the global detection capability is lower after the occurrence of shallow earthquakes with magnitudes ≥ 5.45, intermediate-depth earthquakes with magnitudes ≥ 5.95, and deep earthquakes with magnitudes ≥ 6.95.
This study examines the global earthquake detection capability of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue during the periods immediately following large earthquakes, including intermediate-depth (70 ≤ depth < 300 km) and deep (300 km ≤ depth) events. We have already shown that the detection capability beyond an aftershock zone degrades remarkably and that this condition persists for several hours after the occurrence of large shallow (depth < 70 km) earthquakes. Because an in...
Hori, Takafumi; Ishii, Terumi; Hisanaga, Akihito; Tatsuki, Aeka; Tachikawa, Hirokazu; Asada, Takashi
Following the Great East Japan Earthquake, although there are a growing number of reports on the care of the mental health of victims and supporters, the influence of this disaster on individuals with mental disorders has not yet been sufficiently clarified. Here, we present a case of "oneiroid Erlebnisform" (Mayer-Gross, W.), which was influenced by the disaster and relapsed one year after the earthquake. We discussed the meaning of this experience and the factors leading to recurrence in this case. A male international student in his thirties had repeatedly suffered from acute episodic alteration of consciousness. Although he had experienced anxiety just after the disaster, he showed improvement during his temporary evacuation to Western Japan. Nearly one year after the disaster, however, he relapsed, with symptoms characteristic of an oneiroid state. The patient stated that he was a fuel rod in the Fukushima nuclear power plant, and he then immersed himself in a bathtub full of water in order to avoid meltdown. According to ICD-10, the patient was diagnosed with acute polymorphic psychotic disorder without symptoms of schizophrenia (F23.0). In addition to the alteration of consciousness as the main symptom, since there was no decrease in the level of personolity function, it was also considered that the diagnosis of this case was atypical psychosis, as proposed by Mitsuda and Hatotani. In the oneiroid experience, a variety of visual hallucinations, illusions, and images had appeared one after another. We can find catastrophe and salvation as the main themes in this state, related to the disaster and nuclear accident. Unloading situation after thesis defense, insufficient sleep, poor medication adherence, and the increased frequency of earthquakes were important factors in the recurrence of the present case. To continue research in Japan after the earthquake, the decision was accompanied by anxiety for the patient. One year after the earthquake, the patient was
It was learned from the July 2007 Chuetsu-oki Earthquake that a need exists for simulator training methods to be revised to include the assumption of multiple failures such as those which may occur during a large earthquake. At BWR Operator Training Center Corp., multiple failure team training which focuses on plant diagnostic skills (Plant Diagnostic Skills Training) has been developed and implemented since September 2008. The contents of this training along with the results are presented and considered in this paper. (author)
A linear response history analysis method is used to determine the influence of three factors: geometric incoherency, wave-passage, and local site characteristics on the response of multi-support structures subjected to differential ground motions. A one-span frame and a reduced model of a 24-span bridge, located in Las Vegas, Nevada are studied, in which the influence of each of the three factors and their combinations are analyzed. It is revealed that the incoherency of earthquake ground motion can have a dramatic influence on structural response by modifying the dynamics response to uniform excitation and inducing pseudo-static response, which does not exist in structures subjected to uniform excitation. The total response when all three sources of ground motion incoherency are included is generally larger than that of uniform excitation.
Khachikyan, Galina; Inchin, Alexander; Kim, Alexander; Khassanov, Eldar
There is an idea at present that space weather can influence not only the technological infrastructure and people's health, but seismic activity as well. Space weather impact on the Earth results from magnetic reconnection between the Sun's and Earth's magnetic fields. The effectiveness of reconnection depends on sign and magnitude of Z-components in solar wind magnetic field and earth's magnetic field as measured in the geocentric solar magnetosphere (GSM) coordinate system. The more negative value of Zgsm in the solar wind magnetic field, and the more positive value of Zgsm in the geomagnetic field, the more solar wind energy penetrates into the earth's environment due to reconnection. It was found recently by Khachikyan et al. [2012, http://www.scirp.org/journal/ijg] that maximal possible earthquake magnitude in a particular seismic region (seismic potential - Mmax) may be determined, in first approximation, on the base of maximal geomagnetic Zgsm value in this region, namely: Mmax = (5.22 +- 0.17) + (0.78 +- 0.06) x [abs (Zgsm)]. In this report we present statistical results on association between variations in space weather and global seismic activity, and demonstrate that a great Sumatra earthquake (M=9.1, on December 26, 2004, at 00:58:53 GMT) indeed occurred in region where the geomagnetic Zgsm components are largest at the globe. In the time of earthquake occurrence, geomagnetic Zgsm value in the epicenter (3.30N, 95.980E) was equal to ~37147 nT. A range of possible maximal magnitude, as estimated from above relation, could be of 8.8 - 9.2. The recorded magnitude M=9.1 is within this range.
Kwak, Dong Youp; Brandenberg, Scott J; Stewart, Jonathan P.; Mikami, Atsushi
We are working towards developing risk assessment tools for levees to identify conditions that correlate with ground failure rates. Our initial data set is from the 2007 Mw6.6 Niigata Chuetsu-oki earthquake in Japan. Liquefaction-induced ground failure is a major source of levee damage in this case, so groundwater elevation is expected to be a critical factor affecting damage locations. What we seek is the water level in or beneath the levees themselves along the full length of the study regi...
Since the event of Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007 and the subsequent press reports on damage of nuclear power station after it, a stance of media is being questioned. In order to clear this problem, basic organizational structure of the press related to nuclear energy news was analyzed. Local news department, social news department, science news department and economical news department involve in nuclear energy news the accordance with their own situations and concerns. This structure makes problem of nuclear energy news reporting complicated. Changing this system is required but very difficult. It is concluded that the press problem around nuclear energy news is strange. (author)
Kubota, T.; Aditian, A.
Deriving the analysis of rainfall data in various mountainous locations, increase in rainfall that is deemed to be induced by the global climate change is obvious in Kyushu district, western Japan. On this point of view, its long term impact on the forest slope stability is analyzed with field investigation and numerical simulation such as finite element method (FEM). On the other hand, the influence of earthquake such as cracks on the slope due to seismic vibration was also analyzed with FEM. In this case, the slope stability analysis to obtain the factor of safety "Fs" is conducted. Here, in case of the Fs > 1.0, the slope is stable. In addition, the slope stabilizing effect of the forest mainly due to the roots strength is evaluated on some unstable slopes. Simultaneously, a holistic estimation over landslide groups is conducted by comparing "Fs" on forest slopes with non- forest slopes. Therefore, the following conclusions are obtained: 1) Comparing the Fs without increased rainfall from the previous decade and the one with actual rainfall, the former case is 1.04 ~1.06 times more stable than the latter. 2) On the other hand, the forest slopes are estimated to be up to approximately 1.5 to 2.5 times more stable than the slope without forest. Therefore, the slope stabilizing effect by the forest is much higher than the increasing rainfall influence i.e. the climate change effect. These results imply that an appropriate forest existence is important under the climate change condition to prevent forest slope degradation. 3) Comparing with the destabilization of the slope by seismic activities (vibration) due to the reduction of soil strength and "cracks = slope deformation" (8~9 % to 30% reduction in Fs even after an earthquake of 490gal), the influence of the long term rainfall increase on slopes (such as 1% decrease in Fs) is relatively small in the study area.
Karnawati, D.; Pramumijoyo, S.; Hussein, S.; Anderson, R.; Ratdomopurbo, A.
On May 27, 2006 a magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck Yogyakarta Special Province in Central Java. The earthquake designated the Bantul earthquake resulted in the deaths of 5,800 and left 200,000 families homeless. Over 280,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed. Housing quality was generally poor with no accounting for earthquake-resistant design. Housing and building materials were also of poor quality. In spite of the poor design and construction materials, local geological conditions were determined be a significant influence on the site response which affected the intensity of building damage. In addition, strong ground shaking was unusually long at 57 seconds. In response to the findings of the initial field reconnaissance a series of micro-tremor surveys supported by aerial and satellite image interpretations, ground penetration radar and magneto telluric surveys, as well as engineering geological site investigations were conducted. The objectives of the surveys and investigations were: to investigate various factors controlling the levels of site response which induced damage to homes and buildings; and, to produce a seismic hazard micro-zonation map. Provision of this micro-zonation map is crucial to support the enhancement of building code and landuse management in the earthquake prone area at Bantul. The Bantul area is located in a valley formed a graben. This valley was due to two major normal faults extending towards North East - South West. The east border of the valley is bounded major normal fault formed the Progo River, whilst at the west border another major normal fault formed the Opak-Oya Rivers. Drilling correlations of the bedrock (of andesitic breccia) in the valley, was found at a depth of about 40 m below the existing ground surface. Bedrock was covered by a layer of clay produced from paleo-swamps with various thicknesses from 1 to 2 m. After the clay deposition, the basin then was filled by loose fluvial sediments consisting of gravelly sand
The dynamic response of thin liquid storage tanks to earthquakes is a very complicated phenomenon, because it can be highly non linear. Among others, one can meet material and geometric non linearities of the tank shell leading eventually to static or dynamic buckling non linear behavior of anchor bolts, contact non-linearities due to the uplift of the tank base and to the unilateral character of the fluid pressure on the shell and high amplitude fluid oscillations. Moreover, linear or non linear soil structure interaction affects considerably the response of the fluid structure system under consideration. In this paper we focus attention on problems related only to the base uplift and anchors plastification. We study a tank similar to the Hualien project tank, but we neglect the soil structure interaction. The studied tank is representative of medium height to radius ratio ratio tanks with relatively thick bottom plate. The contact is simulated via a simple discrete penalty method in order to facilitate the calculation of the impact forces. Modal coordinates calculated for various Fourier harmonics are used for the dynamic analysis and the coupled modal equations of motion are solved with an explicit time integration algorithm. Obviously, this approach is less precise than a direct finite element analysis on the nodal basis but is less expensive. The scope of this paper is to discuss the efficiency of the proposed method to deal with problems like those aforementioned and to give some qualitative results concerning the influence of anchor bolts behaviour on the earthquake response of tanks. (author). 2 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab
Bhatnagar, Tarini; Tolstoy, Maya; Waldhauser, Felix
The study of tidal forcing provides an opportunity to view the response of the solid Earth to known changes in stress. Earthquakes triggered by diurnal and semidiurnal tidal forces have been well documented for the deep ocean and some terrestrial environments. However, few studies examine the influence of fortnightly tides on earthquake triggering and only in terrestrial environments. We assess triggering of microearthquakes related to true fortnightly tides and fortnightly tidal modulations along the East Pacific Rise at 9°50'N, where strong diurnal and semidiurnal triggering of earthquakes has been observed. An ocean bottom seismograph experiment collected microearthquake data between October 2003 and January 2007, a time period that included a well-documented submarine eruption culminating in January 2006. We examine how triggering changed through the build up to and aftermath of this seafloor-spreading event. Results show that earthquakes occur preferentially during times of increasing peak volumetric stress leading up to the eruption, with strong statistical significance (Schuster Test p values up to 2.22e-31). However, the correlation loses its strength immediately prior to and during the eruptive period (p value as high as 0.2837), when competing tectonic and magmatic stresses may occur. Post-eruption triggering reappears (p value 1.45e-26) but with opposite phase. Statistical significance is also explored using Monte Carlo method, highlighting limitations of swarm-dominated time series for the Schuster Test. Nevertheless, the observations are consistent with a shift in the dominating stress triggering the earthquakes from extensional tectonics to magmatic processes, followed by a post-eruption period of cooling, relaxation, and possibly magma chamber refilling.
... Us Earthquakes Hazards Data & Products Learn Monitoring Research Earthquake Facts The largest recorded earthquake in the United ... we know, there is no such thing as "earthquake weather" . Statistically, there is an equal distribution of ...
ZHANG Duan-Ming; SUN Fan; YU Bo-Ming; PAN Gui-Jun; YIN Yan-Ping; LI Rui; SU Xiang-Ying
We consider the earthquake model on a random graph. A detailed analysis of the probability distribution of the size of the avalanches will be given. The model with different inhomogeneities is studied in order to compare the critical behavior of different systems. The results indicate that with the increase of the inhomogeneities, the avalanche exponents reduce, i.e., the different numbers of defects cause different critical behaviors of the system. This is virtually ascribed to the dynamical perturbation.
Full Text Available Abstract Background This study explored the prevalence and severity of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD in college students who lived in earthquake center one year after the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, the factors affecting the prevalence of PTSD was also investigated. Methods 2987 students studying at the senior normal school in Tibetan autonomous region which was one of the most devastated regions were selected for this study. The PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version (PCL-C was used as a screening instrument. Results A total of 420 cases (14.1% were diagnosed with PTSD, among which mild, moderate, severe and extreme symptoms were reported in 122, 185, 106 and 7 cases, respectively. The PTSD prevalence in college students lived in the severely affected area was significantly higher than that in the less severe area (P Conclusions At one year after the earthquake, the PTSD rate in college students in the severely affected area was high. The social support, psychological help and rehabilitation project should be strengthened to improve their ability to cope with the trauma.
Full Text Available The potential contribution of remote sensing and GIS techniques to earthquake hazard analysis was investigated in Valparaiso in Chile in order to improve the systematic, standardized inventory of those areas that are more susceptible to earthquake ground motions or to earthquake related secondary effects such as landslides, liquefaction, soil amplifications, compaction or even tsunami-waves. Geophysical, topographical, geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and integrated into a spatial database using Geoinformation Systems (GIS and image processing techniques. The GIS integrated evaluation of satellite imageries, of digital topographic data and of various open-source geodata can contribute to the acquisition of those specific tectonic, geomorphologic/ topographic settings influencing local site conditions in Valparaiso, Chile. Using the weighted overlay techniques in GIS, susceptibility maps were produced indicating areas, where causal factors influencing near- surface earthquake shock occur aggregated. Causal factors (such as unconsolidated sedimentary layers within a basin’s topography, higher groundwater tables, etc. summarizing and interfering each other, rise the susceptibility of soil amplification and of earthquake related secondary effects. This approach was used as well to create a tsunami flooding susceptibility map. LANDSAT Thermal Band 6-imageries were analysed to get information of surface water currents in this area.
高孟潭; 金学申; 安卫平; 吕晓健
The geography information system of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studied. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.
Full Text Available The potential contribution of remote sensing and GIS techniques to earthquake hazard analysis was investigated in SW-Haiti in order to improve the systematic, standardized inventory of those areas that are more susceptible to earthquake ground motions or to earthquake related secondary effects such as landslides, liquefaction, soil amplifications, compaction or even tsunami-waves. Geophysical, topographical, geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and integrated into a spatial database using Geoinformation Systems (GIS and image processing techniques. The GIS integrated evaluation of satellite imageries, of digital topographic data and of various open-source geodata can contribute to the acquisition of those specific tectonic, geomorphologic/topographic settings influencing local site conditions in Haiti and, thus, to a first data base stock. Using the weighted overlay techniques in GIS susceptibility maps were produced indicating areas where causal factors influencing surface-near earthquake shock occur aggregated and interfering each other and, thus, rise the susceptibility to soil amplification. This approach was used as well to create landslide and flooding susceptibility maps.
LOCAL SITE CONDITIONS INFLUENCING EARTHQUAKE INTENSITIES AND SECONDARY COLLATERAL IMPACTS IN THE SEA OF MARMARA REGION - Application of Standardized Remote Sensing and GIS-Methods in Detecting Potentially Vulnerable Areas to Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Other Hazards.
Full Text Available The destructive earthquake that struck near the Gulf of Izmit along the North Anatolian fault in Northwest Turkey on August 17, 1999, not only generated a local tsunami that was destructive at Golcuk and other coastal cities in the eastern portion of the enclosed Sea of Marmara, but was also responsible for extensive damage from collateral hazards such as subsidence, landslides, ground liquefaction, soil amplifications, compaction and underwater slumping of unconsolidated sediments. This disaster brought attention in the need to identify in this highly populated region, local conditions that enhance earthquake intensities, tsunami run-up and other collateral disaster impacts. The focus of the present study is to illustrate briefly how standardized remote sensing techniques and GIS-methods can help detect areas that are potentially vulnerable, so that disaster mitigation strategies can be implemented more effectively. Apparently, local site conditions exacerbate earthquake intensities and collateral disaster destruction in the Marmara Sea region. However, using remote sensing data, the causal factors can be determined systematically. With proper evaluation of satellite imageries and digital topographic data, specific geomorphologic/topographic settings that enhance disaster impacts can be identified. With a systematic GIS approach - based on Digital Elevation Model (DEM data - geomorphometric parameters that influence the local site conditions can be determined. Digital elevation data, such as SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, with 90m spatial resolution and ASTER-data with 30m resolution, interpolated up to 15 m is readily available. Areas with the steepest slopes can be identified from slope gradient maps. Areas with highest curvatures susceptible to landslides can be identified from curvature maps. Coastal areas below the 10 m elevation susceptible to tsunami inundation can be clearly delineated. Height level maps can also help locate
Aochi, Hideo; Durand, Virginie,; Douglas, John
We numerically simulate seismic wave propagation from the 1999 Mw7.4 Izmit, Turkey, earthquake, using a 3D finite difference method based on published finite source models obtained by waveform inversions. This earthquake has been reported, based on observations at the near-fault station SKR, as an example of super-shear rupture propagation towards the east. Although the modeled ground motion does show a characteristic Mach wave from the fault plane, it is difficult to identify any particular ...
We give a short proof of the fact that bounded earthquakes of the unit disk induce quasisymmetric maps of the unit circle. By a similar method, we show that symmetric maps are induced by bounded earthquakes with asymptotically trivial measures.
Stein, Ross S.; Yeats, Robert S.
Points out that large earthquakes can take place not only on faults that cut the earth's surface but also on blind faults under folded terrain. Describes four examples of fold earthquakes. Discusses the fold earthquakes using several diagrams and pictures. (YP)
The seismic responses of each unit at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP differed greatly during the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake; the deep sedimentary structure around the site greatly affected these differences. To clarify underground structure and to evaluate ground motion amplification and attenuation effects more accurately in accordance with deep sedimentary structure, JNES initiated the SODB project. Deployment of a vertical seismometer array in a 3000-meter deep borehole was completed in June 2012 on the premises of NIIT. Horizontal arrays were also placed on the ground surface. Experiences and achievements in the JNES project were introduced, including development of seismic observation technology in deep boreholes, site amplification measurements from logging data, application of borehole observation data to maintenance of nuclear power plant safety, and so on. Afterwards, the relationships of other presentations in this WS, were explained. (authors)
Inspection on Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station after the Niigateken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007 observed obvious buckling in some fluid storage vessels, the filtrate tanks and de-ionized Water tanks. All vessels with buckling belong to Seismic class C. Contrary the other vessels such as Diesel tanks showed no damage. Those phenomena presumably are brought about by differences in the vessels' condition (Vessels geometries, Fluid weight, etc.) and the seismic load on each vessel. In this study, the elephant's foot buckling occurred on the filtrate tank was simulated by FEM analysis of the large displacement elastic-plastic model with the recorded time history of seismic acceleration. The same analysis on the diesel was conducted tank to see that no damage took place also in the analysis. (author)
Full Text Available From 08/01/1983 to 28/03/1990, at the Bishkek ElectroMagnetic (EM test site (Northern Tien Shan and Chu Valley area, Central Asia, strong currents, up to 2.5 kA, were released at a 4.5 km long electrical (grounded dipole. This area is seismically active and a catalogue with about 14100 events from 1975 to 1996 has been analyzed. The seismic catalogue was divided into three parts: 1975-1983 first part with no EM experiments, 1983-1990 second part during EM experiments and 1988-1996 after experiments part. Qualitative and quantitative time series non- linear analysis was applied to waiting times of earthquakes to the above three sub catalogue periods. The qualitative approach includes visual inspection of reconstructed phase space, Iterated Function Systems (IFS and Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA. The quantitative approach followed correlation integral calculation of reconstructed phase space of waiting time distribution, with noise reduction and surrogate testing methods. Moreover the Lempel- Ziv algorithmic complexity measure (LZC was calculated. General dynamics of earthquakes temporal distribution around the test area, reveals properties of low dimensional non linearity. Strong EM discharges lead to the increase in extent of regularity in earthquakes temporal distribution. After cessation of EM experiments the earthquakes temporal distribution becomes much more random than before experiments. To avoid non valid conclusions several tests were applied to our data set: differentiation of the time series was applied to check results not affected by non stationarity; the surrogate data approach was followed to reject the hypothesis that dynamics belongs to the colored noise type. Small earthquakes, below completeness threshold, were added to the analysis to check results robustness.
Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna
This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan. PMID:26197482
Hofmann, R.B. [Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses, San Antonio, TX (United States)
Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.
Using hydrochloric acid, nitric acid, hydrofluoric acid and perchloric acid digestion, ICP determination method, combined with geostatistics and GIS, this paper studied the distribution characteristics and influencing factors of Cd, Pb of the soil samples in a typical 5.12 earthquake-stricken area named Xinhuang village as an example. The results showed that the average Cd content of the soil samples was 0.36 ± 0.20 mg /kg, 23.08% of which exceeded the national soil environmental quality standard II, but didn't exceed the standard III. The average Pb content of the soil samples was 28.97 ± 6.82 mg /kg and did not exceed the national standard II. The spatial distribution of Cd, Pb content appeared as belt-shaped and group shape respectively. Cd content took the mid-eastern part as a center, whose concentration was low, and gradually increased to north, to mid-west and to south, respectively; Pb content decreased first and increased afterward from north to south and from east to west. However, Cd, Pb contents in the soil under tent settlements after the earthquake, living garbage dumps and the housing collapse were significantly higher than the soil where were not affected by the earthquake. Cd content in the paddy field soil of 40 ∼ 60 cm depth under tent settlements was the highest, which was 0.46 mg /kg, the highest was 0.57 mg /kg; in the natural paddy field soil of 0 ∼ 20 cm, which. Pb content in the paddy field soil of 0 ∼ 20 cm depth under tent settlements and the natural paddy field soil, were 25.22 mg /kg and 26.16 mg /kg respectively. The influencing factors indicated that: Cd content of paddy fields, dry land and wasteland had not significant difference; Pb content of paddy fields were significantly higher than that of wasteland; The correlation coefficient of organic matter content and the Pb content was 0.616, which took a highly significant positive correlation; Cd content and pH or Cd content and organic matter content did not take significant
Aiken, C.; Peng, Z.
It is important not only for seismologists but also for educators to effectively convey information about earthquakes and the influences earthquakes can have on each other. Recent studies using auditory display [e.g. Kilb et al., 2012; Peng et al. 2012] have depicted catastrophic earthquakes and the effects large earthquakes can have on other parts of the world. Auditory display of earthquakes, which combines static images with time-compressed sound of recorded seismic data, is a new approach to disseminating information to a general audience about earthquakes and earthquake interactions. Earthquake interactions are influential to understanding the underlying physics of earthquakes and other seismic phenomena such as tremors in addition to their source characteristics (e.g. frequency contents, amplitudes). Earthquake interactions can include, for example, a large, shallow earthquake followed by increased seismicity around the mainshock rupture (i.e. aftershocks) or even a large earthquake triggering earthquakes or tremors several hundreds to thousands of kilometers away [Hill and Prejean, 2007; Peng and Gomberg, 2010]. We use standard tools like MATLAB, QuickTime Pro, and Python to produce animations that illustrate earthquake interactions. Our efforts are focused on producing animations that depict cross-section (side) views of tremors triggered along the San Andreas Fault by distant earthquakes, as well as map (bird's eye) views of mainshock-aftershock sequences such as the 2011/08/23 Mw5.8 Virginia earthquake sequence. These examples of earthquake interactions include sonifying earthquake and tremor catalogs as musical notes (e.g. piano keys) as well as audifying seismic data using time-compression. Our overall goal is to use auditory display to invigorate a general interest in earthquake seismology that leads to the understanding of how earthquakes occur, how earthquakes influence one another as well as tremors, and what the musical properties of these
Using a catalog of seismicity for Southern California, we measure how the number of triggered earthquakes increases with the earthquake magnitude. The trade-off between this relation and the distribution of earthquake magnitudes controls the relative role of small compared to large earthquakes. We show that seismicity triggering is driven by the smallest earthquakes, which trigger fewer events than larger earthquakes, but which are much more numerous. We propose that the non-trivial scaling o...
The potential contribution of remote sensing and GIS techniques to earthquake hazard analysis was investigated in SW-Haiti in order to improve the systematic, standardized inventory of those areas that are more susceptible to earthquake ground motions or to earthquake related secondary effects such as landslides, liquefaction, soil amplifications, compaction or even tsunami-waves. Geophysical, topographical, geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and integrated into a...
Barbara Theilen-Willige; Felipe Barrios Burnett
The potential contribution of remote sensing and GIS techniques to earthquake hazard analysis was investigated in Valparaiso in Chile in order to improve the systematic, standardized inventory of those areas that are more susceptible to earthquake ground motions or to earthquake related secondary effects such as landslides, liquefaction, soil amplifications, compaction or even tsunami-waves. Geophysical, topographical, geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and integr...
Horálek, Josef; Fischer, T.; Einarsson, P.; Jakobsdóttir, S. S.
Berlin: Springer, 2015 - (Beer, M.; Kougioumtzoglou, I.; Patelli, E.; Au, I.), s. 871-885 ISBN 978-3-642-35343-7 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP210/12/2336 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : clustering of events * driving forces * earthquake location Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure
Installation of an array of six portable seismographs in the vicinity of Bushehr has allowed to indicate the precise location of earthquakes of small magnitude. Seismographic Network of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (SNAEOI) will reports the results of their work at three month intervals. In this bulletin results obtained at Bushehr area is represented in three tables and 3 figures
Saba Naderi; Yasmin Kolyai; Sirus Rezaei
This paper as examplehas been studied Faizabad district of Kermanshah and to reach its main purpose, which is reducing the damagecaused by the earthquake on the Faizabad district is been providedand in subsidiary purposes part the research is tried identify factors influence in vulnerability earthquakes,pay to provide the factors required; All these factors havean impact on reducing earthquake vulnerability. This data using geological data, soil texture, getting satelliteimages and layering o...
Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro
Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. PMID:27418504
There is little data on which to judge the performance of plant operators during and after strong earthquakes. In order to obtain such data to enhance the reliability on the plant operation, a Japanese utility and a power plant manufacturer carried out a vibration test using a shaking table. The purpose of the test was to investigate operator performance, i.e., the quickness and correctness in switch handling and panel meter read-out. The movement of chairs during earthquake as also of interest, because if the chairs moved significantly or turned over during a strong earthquake, some arresting mechanism would be required for the chair. Although there were differences between the simulated earthquake motions used and actual earthquakes mainly due to the specifications of the shaking table, the earthquake motions had almost no influence on the operators of their capability (performance) for operating the simulated console and the personal computers
Stein, R. S.
The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by
Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...
KameshRaju, K.A.; Murty, G.P.S.; Amarnath, D.; MohanKumar, M.L.
lithospheric scale boundary and together with other tectonic elements modulates the occurrence of large earthquakes and their rupture pattern. The active strike-slip motion along the WAF, presence of backarc spreading coupled with increased obliquity...
X. L. Chen
Full Text Available Southwest China is located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and it is a region of high seismic activity. Historically, strong earthquakes that occurred here usually generated lots of landslides and brought destructive damages. This paper introduces several earthquake-triggered landslide events in this region and describes their characteristics. Also, the historical data of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater, having occurred in this region, is collected and the relationship between the affected area of landslides and earthquake magnitude is analysed. Based on the study, it can be concluded that strong earthquakes, steep topography as well as fragile geological environment, are the main reasons responsible for serious landslides in southwest China. At the same time, it is found that the relationship between the area affected by landslides and the earthquake magnitude in this region are consistent with what has been obtained worldwide. Moreover, in this paper, it is seen that the size of the areas affected by landslides change enormously even under the same earthquake magnitude in the study region. While at the same tectonic place or fault belt, areas affected by landslides presented similar outline and size. This means that local geological conditions and historical earthquake background have an important influence on landslides distribution, and they should be considered when assessing earthquake-triggered landslide hazards at Grade 1 according to ISSMGE.
MAVASHEV BORIS; MAVASHEV IGOR
Submit for consideration the connection between formation of a hurricane Sandy and earthquakes. As a rule, weather anomalies precede and accompany earthquakes. The hurricane Sandy emerged 2 days prior to strong earthquakes that occurred in the area. And the trajectory of the hurricane Sandy matched the epicenter of the earthquakes. Possibility of early prediction of natural disasters will minimize the moral and material damage.
Full Text Available Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007 and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake prevention is crucial. The earthquake early warning system can provide seconds to tens of seconds of warning time before an earthquake strikes. This paper introduces the earthquake early warning system build by Taiwan National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering and a practice case happened in Yilan City, Taiwan.
Gil, Moon Joo; Jung, Rae Young; Hyun, Chang Hun; Kim, Moon Soo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Nam Hyoung [Chungnam National University, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
On 16 July 2007, the Nigataken-chuetsu-oki earthquake registering a moment magnitude of 6.8 occurred at a depth of about 15 km. As a result of this earthquake, noticeable shaking exceeding the design ground motion was measured at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station (KKN), the biggest nuclear power plant in the world, located at about 16 km away from the epicenter. This earthquake triggered a fire at an electrical transformer and insignificant damage on some parts of facilities. This event gave an impulse to study on the damage and safety margin of nuclear power plant due to the strong earthquake exceeding design basis. As a part of those efforts, KARISMA (KAshiwazaki-Kariwa Research Initiative for Seismic Margin Assessment) benchmark study was launched by the IAEA in terms of an international collaborative research. The main objectives of this research are to estimate the structural behavior and to evaluate the seismic margin of reactor building considering the effects of Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI). This paper presents verification of structural model developed here and validation of soil foundation characteristics through soil-column analysis. It has also been demonstrated that the spring constants and damping coefficient obtained from impedance analysis represent well the soil foundation characteristics
On 16 July 2007, the Nigataken-chuetsu-oki earthquake registering a moment magnitude of 6.8 occurred at a depth of about 15 km. As a result of this earthquake, noticeable shaking exceeding the design ground motion was measured at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station (KKN), the biggest nuclear power plant in the world, located at about 16 km away from the epicenter. This earthquake triggered a fire at an electrical transformer and insignificant damage on some parts of facilities. This event gave an impulse to study on the damage and safety margin of nuclear power plant due to the strong earthquake exceeding design basis. As a part of those efforts, KARISMA (KAshiwazaki-Kariwa Research Initiative for Seismic Margin Assessment) benchmark study was launched by the IAEA in terms of an international collaborative research. The main objectives of this research are to estimate the structural behavior and to evaluate the seismic margin of reactor building considering the effects of Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI). This paper presents verification of structural model developed here and validation of soil foundation characteristics through soil-column analysis. It has also been demonstrated that the spring constants and damping coefficient obtained from impedance analysis represent well the soil foundation characteristics
Jordan, T. H.; Univ Southern California; Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Michael, A.; USGS; Gerstenberger, M. C.; GNS
We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Opera- tional earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time-dependent proba- bilities to help communities prepare for potentially ...
Tepp, Gabrielle; Ebinger, Cynthia J.; Yun, Sang-Ho
Shallow dike intrusions may be accompanied by fault slip above the dikes, a superposition which complicates seismic and geodetic data analyses. The diverse volcano-tectonic and low-frequency local earthquakes accompanying the 2005-2010 large-volume dike intrusions in the Dabbahu-Manda Hararo rift (Afar), some with fault displacements of up to 3 m at the surface, provide an opportunity to examine the relations among the earthquakes, dike intrusions, and surface ruptures. We apply the frequency index (FI) method to characterize the spectra of swarm earthquakes from six of the dikes. These earthquakes often have broad spectra with multiple peaks, making the usual peak frequency classification method unreliable. Our results show a general bimodal character with high FI earthquakes associated with deeper dikes (top > 3 km subsurface) and low FI earthquakes associated with shallow dikes, indicating that shallow dikes result in earthquakes with more low-frequency content and larger-amplitude surface waves. Low FI earthquakes are more common during dike emplacement, suggesting that interactions between the dike and faults may lead to lower FI. Taken together, likely source processes for low FI earthquakes are shallow hypocenters (interactions with dike fluids. Strong site effects also heavily influence the earthquake spectral content. Additionally, our results suggest a continuum of spectral responses, implying either that impulsive volcano-tectonic earthquakes and the unusual, emergent earthquakes have similar source processes or that simple spectral analyses, such as FI, cannot distinguish different source processes.
Full Text Available This paper as examplehas been studied Faizabad district of Kermanshah and to reach its main purpose, which is reducing the damagecaused by the earthquake on the Faizabad district is been providedand in subsidiary purposes part the research is tried identify factors influence in vulnerability earthquakes,pay to provide the factors required; All these factors havean impact on reducing earthquake vulnerability. This data using geological data, soil texture, getting satelliteimages and layering over Arc Gis software identified and for long term periods donepredict using relation kernel PSHA also. In determining the level ofenvironmental risk is to use software crisis. Finally, by recognizing the riskzone, solutions for Faizabad district offered.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — An earthquake is the motion or trembling of the ground produced by sudden displacement of rock in the Earth's crust. Earthquakes result from crustal strain,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — There have been many earthquake occurrences in Southern California. This set of slides shows earthquake damage from the following events: Imperial Valley, 1979,...
Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael
Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.
If a nuclear power plant should encounter earthquakes, an earthquake response analysis value previously stored and the earthquakes observed are compared to judge the magnitude of the earthquakes. From the result of the judgement, a possibility that an abnormality is recognized in plant equipment systems after the earthquakes is evaluated, in comparison with a previously stored earthquake fragility data base of each of equipment/systems. The result of the evaluation is displayed in a central control chamber. The plant equipment system is judged such that abnormalities are recognized at a high probability is evaluated by a previously stored earthquake PSA method for the influence of the abnormality on plant safety, and the result is displayed in the central control chamber. (I.S.)
Heaton, Thomas H.
Analysis of the tidal stress tensor at the time of moderate to large earthquakes strongly suggests that shallow (< 30 km) larger magnitude oblique-slip and dip-slip earthquakes are triggered by tidal stresses. No corresponding triggering effect is seen for shallow strike-slip earthquakes or for any type of intermediate or deep focus earthquakes which have been studied. Tidal triggering is also discussed from the viewpoint of the ‘dilatancy-diffusion’ model. Specifically, the model as usually ...
Hubenthal, Michael; Braile, Larry; Taber, John
The Earthquake Machine (EML), a mechanical model of stick-slip fault systems, can increase student engagement and facilitate opportunities to participate in the scientific process. This article introduces the EML model and an activity that challenges ninth-grade students' misconceptions about earthquakes. The activity emphasizes the role of models…
Simsek, Canan Lacin
Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…
Dwelley, Laura; Tucker, Brian; Fernandez, Jeanette
A recent assessment of earthquake risk to Quito, Ecuador, concluded that many of its public schools are vulnerable to collapse during major earthquakes. A subsequent examination of 60 buildings identified 15 high-risk buildings. These schools were retrofitted to meet standards that would prevent injury even during Quito's largest earthquakes. US…
Maltseva, Olga; Nikitenko, Tatyana; Zhbankov, Gennadii
Investigation of behavior of the ionosphere during earthquakes has long and steady interest. Basically, it concerns to studying behavior of parameters foF2 and hmF2 of the bottomside ionosphere. There are indirect indications of influence of the processes connected with earthquakes on the higher area. Recently, data of measurements of an electron density Ne on low-orbit satellites were appeared over zones of earthquakes. It allows estimating modifications of density Ne in the topside part of the ionosphere. In the present work, N(h)-profiles are calculated with use of the IRI-Plas model and its adaptation not only to experimental values of foF2 and hmF2, but also to the total electron content TEC during periods of earthquakes. Thus in some cases it was possible to adapt model for the plasma frequencies measured on satellites. The cases analyzed in references, concerning, basically, to events in the European and Southeast zones were selected. On an example of a specific case of earthquake on February, 14th 2008 near to Athens, absolute and relative variations of deviations of plasma frequency from a median at various heights (close to hmF2, 400 km, 600 km, 1000 km, 1500 km) are considered for 0 - 12 days before earthquake for various options of adaptation of the model. If to consider that here there can be the variations connected with earthquake, a sign of deviations in most cases was negative with maximum value of magnitude during 8th day before earthquake and in half smaller deviation a day before earthquake. Relative deviations are minimum close hmF2 and maximum at height of 400 km. Since in most cases investigations are fulfilled with a view of search of the precursors, the given work includes the critical analysis of the published and received results. Authors thank Southern Federal University for support by grant #213.01-11/2014-22.
For the first time a new natural phenomenon was established: a contrasting increase in the soil radon level under the influence of solar flares. Such an increase is one of geochemical indicators of earthquakes. Most researchers consider this a phenomenon of exclusively terrestrial processes. Investigations regarding the link of earthquakes to solar activity carried out during the last decade in different countries are based on the analysis of statistical data ΣΕ (t) and W (t). As established, the overall seismicity of the Earth and its separate regions depends of an 11-year long cycle of solar activity. Data provided in the paper based on experimental studies serve the first step on the way of experimental data on revealing cause-and-reason solar-terrestrials bonds in a series solar eruption-lithosphere radon-earthquakes. They need further collection of experimental data. For the first time, through radon constituent of terrestrial radiation objectification has been made of elementary lattice of the Hartmann's network contoured out by bio location method. As found out, radon concentration variations in Hartmann's network nodes determine the dynamics of solar-terrestrial relationships. Of the three types of rapidly running processes conditioned by solar-terrestrial bonds earthquakes are attributed to rapidly running destructive processes that occur in the most intense way at the juncture of tectonic massifs, along transformed and deep failures. The basic factors provoking the earthquakes are both magnetic-structural effects and a long-term (over 5 months) bombing of the surface of lithosphere by highly energetic particles of corpuscular solar flows, this being approved by photometry. As a result of solar flares that occurred from 29 October to 4 November 2003, a sharply contrasting increase in soil radon was established which is an earthquake indicator on the territory of Yerevan City. A month and a half later, earthquakes occurred in San-Francisco, Iran, Turkey
This paper presents the three-dimensional finite element seismic response analysis of full-scale boiling water reactor BWR5 at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station subjected to the Niigata-ken Chuetsu-Oki earthquake that occurred on 16 July 2007. During the earthquake, the automatic shutdown system of the reactors was activated successfully. Although the monitored seismic acceleration significantly exceeded the design level, it was found that there were no significant damages of the reactor cores or other important systems, structures and components through in-depth investigation. In the seismic design commonly used in Japan, a lumped mass model is employed to evaluate the seismic response of structures and components. Although the lumped mass model has worked well so far for a seismic proof design, it is still needed to develop more precise methods for the visual understanding of response behaviors. In the present study, we propose the three-dimensional finite element seismic response analysis of the full-scale and precise BWR model in order to directly visualize its dynamic behaviors. Through the comparison between both analysis results, we discuss the characteristics of both models. The stress values were also found to be generally under the design value. (author)
In this paper, we present the three-dimensional finite element seismic response analysis of the full-scale boiling water reactor BWR5 at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant subjected to the Niigata-ken Chuetsu-Oki (NCO) earthquake that occurred on 16th July 2007. During the earthquake, the automatic shutdown of the reactors was performed successfully. Although the monitored seismic acceleration significantly exceeded the design level, it was found through in-depth investigation that there was no significant damage of the reactor cores or other important systems, structures and components (SSCs). In the seismic design commonly used in Japan, a lumped mass model is employed to evaluate the seismic response of SSCs. Although the lumped mass model has worked well so far for a seismic proof design, more precise methods should be developed to understand response behaviors visually. In the present study, we propose the three-dimensional finite element seismic response analysis of the full-scale and precise BWR model in order to directly visualize the dynamic behaviors of this model. Through the comparison of the analysis results, we discuss the characteristics of both models. The stress values were also found to be generally under the design value. (author)
彭丹; 李晓松; 张强; 朱彩蓉; 张菊英; 袁萍; 刘毅
目的 了解汶川地震一年半后灾区居民心理健康状况及其影响因素,为其心理重建制定合理措施提供参考.方法 通过对汶川、北川、绵竹3个极重灾区882位居民的调查,对居民的心理健康状况进行测评,并采用结构方程模型分析其影响因素.结果 灾区居民焦虑症状阳性率为22.6％,抑郁症状阳性率为19.7％；地震灾区居民心理健康状况影响因素依次为:社会特征、生理健康状况、社会支持、地震创伤暴露情况、地震后居住状况；其中生理健康状况、社会支持、地震创伤暴露情况对灾区居民心理健康有直接作用,社会特征与地震后居住状况对心理健康有间接的影响.结论灾区居民的心理健康需持续关注；灾区居民,特别是老年人的社会支持有待加强；灾区居民的心理重建需要卫生保健、家园重建等多方面工作的支持.%OBJECTIVE To investigate the mental health status of inhabitants in Wenchuan Earthquake areas and main factors affecting it, so order to provide reference for making reasonable measures of improving their mental health. METHODS The mental health conditions of 882 residents in Wenchuan, Beichuan and Mianzhu where were heavy hit were evluated, and structural equation model was used to study the influencing factors. RESULTS A positive rate of 22.6% for anxiety symptoms and the positive rate of depression symptoms was 19.6%; The influencing factors of mental health were social characteristics, physical health status, social support, earthquake trauma exposure, living conditions after the earthquake; physical health status, social support and earthquake trauma exposure directly affected mental health, social characteristics and living conditions after the earthquake. CONCLUSION The mental health of residents in affected areas need sustained attention; Disaster area residents, especially the elder's social supports, need to be strengthened; psychological
Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis; Patelli, Edoardo; Au, Siu-Kui
The Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering is designed to be the authoritative and comprehensive reference covering all major aspects of the science of earthquake engineering, specifically focusing on the interaction between earthquakes and infrastructure. The encyclopedia comprises approximately 265 contributions. Since earthquake engineering deals with the interaction between earthquake disturbances and the built infrastructure, the emphasis is on basic design processes important to both non-specialists and engineers so that readers become suitably well-informed without needing to deal with the details of specialist understanding. The content of this encyclopedia provides technically inclined and informed readers about the ways in which earthquakes can affect our infrastructure and how engineers would go about designing against, mitigating and remediating these effects. The coverage ranges from buildings, foundations, underground construction, lifelines and bridges, roads, embankments and slopes. The encycl...
Wu, Xiaoping; Mao, Wei; Huang, Yong
A review on the studies of correlation between astronomical tides and earthquakes is given in three categories, including (1) earthquakes and the relative locations of the sun, the moon and the earth, (2) earthquakes and the periods and phases of tides and (3) earthquakes and the tidal stress. The first two categories mainly investigate whether or not there exist any dominant pattern of the relative locations of the sun, the moon and the earth during earthquakes, whether or not the occurrences of earthquakes are clustered in any special phase during a tidal period, whether or not there exists any tidal periodic phenomenon in seismic activities, By empasizing the tidal stress in seismic focus, the third category investigates the relationship between various seismic faults and the triggering effects of tidal stress, which reaches the crux of the issue. Possible reasons to various inconsistent investigation results by using various methods and samples are analyzed and further investigations are proposed.
Werner, M. J.; Marzocchi, W.; Taroni, M.; Zechar, J. D.; Gerstenberger, M.; Liukis, M.; Rhoades, D. A.; Cattania, C.; Christophersen, A.; Hainzl, S.; Helmstetter, A.; Jimenez, A.; Steacy, S.; Jordan, T. H.
The M7.1 Darfield, New Zealand (NZ), earthquake triggered a complex earthquake cascade that provides a wealth of new scientific data to study earthquake triggering and the predictive skill of statistical and physics-based forecasting models. To this end, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is conducting a retrospective evaluation of over a dozen short-term forecasting models that were developed by groups in New Zealand, Europe and the US. The statistical model group includes variants of the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, non-parametric kernel smoothing models, and the Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities (STEP) model. The physics-based model group includes variants of the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis, which are embedded either in Dieterich's (1994) rate-state formulation or in statistical Omori-Utsu clustering formulations (hybrid models). The goals of the CSEP evaluation are to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms governing earthquake triggering, to improve short-term earthquake forecasting models and time-dependent hazard assessment for the Canterbury area, and to understand the influence of poor-quality, real-time data on the skill of operational (real-time) forecasts. To assess the latter, we use the earthquake catalog data that the NZ CSEP Testing Center archived in near real-time during the earthquake sequence and compare the predictive skill of models using the archived data as input with the skill attained using the best available data today. We present results of the retrospective model comparison and discuss implications for operational earthquake forecasting.
Albini, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia; Musson, R. M. W.; BGS, Edinburgh; Rovida, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia; Locati, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia; Gomez Capera, A. A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia; Viganò, D.; Global Earthquake Model-GEM
The study of earthquakes from historical sources, or historical seismology, was considered an early priority for the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) project, which commissioned a study of historical seismicity at a global scale. This was “The Global Earthquake History” (GEH) project, led jointly by INGV (Milano, Italy) and BGS (UK). GEH was structured around three complementary deliverables: archive, catalogue, and the web infrastructure designed to store both archive and catalogue. The Global ...
陈顒; 陈祺福; 黄静; 徐文立
The article summarizes the researches on mitigating earthquake disasters of the past four years in China. The studyof earthquake disasters′ quantification shows that the losses increase remarkably when population concentrates inurban area and social wealth increase. The article also summarizes some new trends of studying earthquake disas-ters′ mitigation, which are from seismic hazard to seismic risk, from engineering disaster to social disaster andintroduces the community-centered approach.
Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information
Following their request for help from members of international organisations, the permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran has given the following bank account number, where you can donate money to help the victims of the Bam earthquake. Re: Bam earthquake 235 - UBS 311264.35L Bubenberg Platz 3001 BERN
National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2008
Earthquakes are low-probability, high-consequence events. Though they may occur only once in the life of a school, they can have devastating, irreversible consequences. Moderate earthquakes can cause serious damage to building contents and non-structural building systems, serious injury to students and staff, and disruption of building operations.…
Nuclear power plants licensed in Canada have been designed to resist earthquakes: not all plants, however, have been explicitly designed to the same level of earthquake induced forces. Understanding the nature of strong ground motion near the source of the earthquake is still very tentative. This paper reviews historical and scientific accounts of the three strongest earthquakes - St. Lawrence (1925), Temiskaming (1935), Cornwall (1944) - that have occurred in Canada in 'modern' times, field studies of near-field strong ground motion records and their resultant damage or non-damage to industrial facilities, and numerical modelling of earthquake sources and resultant wave propagation to produce accelerograms consistent with the above historical record and field studies. It is concluded that for future construction of NPP's near-field strong motion must be explicitly considered in design
Can earthquakes be predicted? How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction? This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earthquake prediction must also develop from empirical forecasting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out. (authors)
Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.
The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing
The purpose of this study is to clarify whether reports of nuclear accidents, particularly the damage done by the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-Oki earthquake to the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant in Niigata, Japan, tend to be exaggerated by national media. News related to the Kashiwazaki incident was compared with that for nine other high-profile accidents in Japan, including the 1999 JCO critical accident and the 2005 JR-West Fukuchiyama Line derailment. Articles were extracted from four national newspapers in Japan, focusing on the 30 issues immediately following each accident. The numbers of articles and top stories related to the relevant accidents appearing on the front pages of the newspapers were counted. Based on these numbers, the Kashiwazaki incident was reported at a level similar to the JCO accident and Fukuchiyama line derailment in some newspapers, although these two accidents were more serious than the Kashiwazaki incident. This suggests that at least some newspapers in Japan sensationalized reports of the Kashiwazaki incident. (author)
Complete text of publication follows. An earthquake is the result of a sudden release of energy in the Earth's crust that creates seismic waves. At the present technological level, earthquakes of magnitude larger than three can be recorded all over the world. In spite of the apparent randomness of earthquake occurrence, long term measurements have revealed interesting scaling laws of earthquake characteristics: the rate of aftershocks following major earthquakes has a power law decay (Omori law); the magnitude distribution of earthquakes exhibits a power law behavior (Gutenberg-Richter law), furthermore, it has recently been pointed out that epicenters form fractal networks in fault zones (Kagan law). The theoretical explanation of earthquakes is based on plate tectonics: the earth's crust has been broken into plates which slowly move under the action of the flowing magma. Neighboring plates touch each other along ridges (fault zones) where a large amount of energy is stored in deformation. Earthquakes occur when the stored energy exceeds a material dependent threshold value and gets released in a sudden jump of the plate. The Burridge-Knopoff (BK) model of earthquakes represents earth's crust as a coupled system of driven oscillators where nonlinearity occurs through a stick-slip frictional instability. Laboratory experiments have revealed that under a high pressure the friction of rock interfaces exhibits a weakening with increasing velocity. In the present project we extend recent theoretical studies of the BK model by taking into account a realistic velocity weakening friction force between tectonic plates. Varying the strength of weakening a broad spectrum of interesting phenomena is obtained: the model reproduces the Omori and Gutenberg-Richter laws of earthquakes, furthermore, it provides information on the correlation of earthquake sequences. We showed by computer simulations that the spatial and temporal correlations of consecutive earthquakes are very
). Aside from the expected strong influence of RC, increasing fines content is found to generally decrease volume change for fines fractions consisting of silts and clayey silts with moderate to low plasticity. With truly non-plastic fines (rock flour), cyclic volume change increases with FC. Some materials also exhibit an effect of as-compacted saturation in which moderate saturation levels associated with high matric suction cause volume change to decrease. A preliminary empirical model to capture these effects is presented. The balance of the dissertation is related to a case history of strongly nonlinear site response and seismic compression associated with a free-field downhole array installed near the Service Hall at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, which recorded strong ground motions from the Mw 6.6 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake. Site conditions at the array consist of about 70 m of medium-dense sands overlying clayey bedrock, with ground water located at 45 m. Ground shaking at the bedrock level had geometric mean peak accelerations of 0.55 g which is reduced to 0.4 g at the ground surface, indicating nonlinear site response. Ground settlements of approximately 15+/-5 cm occurred at the site. A site investigation was performed to develop relevant soil properties for ground response and seismic compression analysis, including shear wave velocities, shear strength, relative density, and modulus reduction and damping curves. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
Earthquake DSS is an information technology environment which can be used by government to sharpen, make faster and better the earthquake mitigation decision. Earthquake DSS can be delivered as E-government which is not only for government itself but in order to guarantee each citizen's rights for education, training and information about earthquake and how to overcome the earthquake. Knowledge can be managed for future use and would become mining by saving and maintain all the data and infor...
As one of the most powerful tools to reduce the earthquake loss, the Earthquake Disaster Management [EDM] and Insurance [EI] have been highlighted and have had a great progress in many countries in recent years. Earthquake disaster management includes a series of contents, such as earthquake hazard and risk analysis, vulnerability analysis of building and infrastructure, earthquake aware training, and building the emergency response system. EI, which has been included in EDM after this practice has been...
The world's earthquakes are not randomly distributed over the Earth's surface. They tend to be concentrated in narrow zones. Why is this? And why are volcanoes and mountain ranges also found in these zones too?
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This set of slides graphically illustrates the potential danger that major earthquakes pose to school structures and to the children and adults who happen to be...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 1988 Spitak Earthquake database is an extensive collection of geophysical and geological data, maps, charts, images and descriptive text pertaining to the...
Ashtari Jafari, Mohammad
The Bam earthquake occurred in an area without any historically recorded major earthquake. Based on active tectonics and CMT solutions the area is under the influence of shortening and right-lateral strike-slip faulting. Seismicity is of a shallow crustal type which is mainly distributed within the Koohbanan-Golbaf, Lakarkooh-Shahdad-Gowk fault systems and the terminal sections of Zagros. In order to detect temporal seismicity anomalies before this earthquake we compiled a catalog from the ISC events and then analyzed it for the magnitude of completeness. After declustering this catalog, changes in seismicity were assessed by the z-value test. The temporal variations indicate a relative decrease in z-value before the Bam earthquake. Additional to seismic quiescence and decrease in b-value before the main shock there are pieces of evidence corresponding to increase in triggered background seismicity after this earthquake.
Behrman, Julia Andrea; Weitzman, Abigail
This article explores the effects of the 2010 Haiti earthquake on women's reproductive health, using geocoded data from the 2005 and 2012 Haiti Demographic and Health Surveys. We use geographic variation in the destructiveness of the earthquake to conduct a difference-in-difference analysis. Results indicate that heightened earthquake intensity reduced use of injectables-the most widely used modern contraceptive method in Haiti-and increased current pregnancy and current unwanted pregnancy. Analysis of impact pathways suggests that severe earthquake intensity significantly increased women's unmet need for family planning and reduced their access to condoms. The earthquake also affected other factors that influence reproductive health, including women's ability to negotiate condom use in their partnerships. Our findings highlight how disruptions to health care services following a natural disaster can have negative consequences for women's reproductive health. PMID:27027990
Ellsworth, William L
Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard. PMID:23846903
As it is the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth, 2009 has also been marked as 170 years since the publication of his book Journal of Researches. During the voyage Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great earthquake, which demolished hundreds of buildings, killing and injuring many people. Land was waved, lifted, and cracked, volcanoes awoke and giant ocean waves attacked the coast. Darwin was the first geologist to observe and describe the effects of the great earthquake during and immediately after. These effects sometimes repeated during severe earthquakes; but great earthquakes, like Chile 1835, and giant earthquakes, like Chile 1960, are rare and remain completely unpredictable. This is one of the few areas of science, where experts remain largely in the dark. Darwin suggested that the effects were a result of ‘ …the rending of strata, at a point not very deep below the surface of the earth…' and ‘…when the crust yields to the tension, caused by its gradual elevation, there is a jar at the moment of rupture, and a greater movement...'. Darwin formulated big ideas about the earth evolution and its dynamics. These ideas set the tone for the tectonic plate theory to come. However, the plate tectonics does not completely explain why earthquakes occur within plates. Darwin emphasised that there are different kinds of earthquakes ‘...I confine the foregoing observations to the earthquakes on the coast of South America, or to similar ones, which seem generally to have been accompanied by elevation of the land. But, as we know that subsidence has gone on in other quarters of the world, fissures must there have been formed, and therefore earthquakes...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). These thoughts agree with results of the last publications (see Nature 461, 870-872; 636-639 and 462, 42-43; 87-89). About 200 years ago Darwin gave oneself airs by the
创伤后应急障碍是地震震后暴露者常见的心理障碍之一，而青少年是易罹患该障碍的高危人群。以文献复习方法归纳地震灾害后青少年创伤后应激障碍的患病情况和影响因素，并展望该问题下一步的研究趋势将有助于为青少年的心理危机干预提供更多的信息。%Post-traumatic stress disorder is one of epidemic psychological barriers in people after the earthquake,and adoles-cents have higher risk in the disorder. With the method of literature review,the research summarized the morbidity,symptom and influ-ence factors of post-traumatic stress disorder,and analyzed the trend for future research,those could contribute to the psychological cri-sis intervention for adolescent.
Full Text Available Shear wave velocities have a fundamental role in connection with the mitigation of seismic hazards, as their low values are the main causes of site amplification phenomena and can significantly influence the susceptibility of a territory to seismic-induced landslides. The shear wave velocity (Vs and modulus (G of each lithological unit are influenced by factors such as the degree of fracturing and faulting, the porosity, the clay amount and the precipitation, with the latter two influencing the unit water content. In this paper we discuss how these factors can affect the Vs values and report the results of different analyses that quantify the reduction in the rock Vs and shear modulus values connected to the presence of clay and water. We also show that significant results in assessing seismic-induced slope failure susceptibility for land planning targets could be achieved through a careful evaluation, based only on literature studies, of the geo-lithological and geo-seismic features of the study area.
钟萍; 王汝; 丁怀胜; 周晓芳; 卢青; 金静; 王文艳
Objective The aim of the study was to investigate the influence of earthquake on serum homocysteine (HCY) level in victims. Methods A total of 150 victims were assigned to study group and 150 healthy individuals were assigned to control group. The mental status of the two groups was investigated with Self-Rating Anxiety Scale (SAS) and Self-Rating Depression Scale (SDS). The level of serum HCY was detected. Results The questionnaire score of study group was higher than that of control group. The level of serum HCY of study group was significantly higher than that of control group[(24. 4 ± 10. 9) μmol/L vs. ( 17. 2 ± 3. 8) μmol/L, P < 0. 01 ]. There was a positive correlation between Hcy and SAS (r = 0. 968, P < 0. 01) as well as Hcy and SDS (r = 0.979, P < 0. 01). Conclusions Earthquake can cause physical stress for victims, which leads to the increase of serum HCY leveL%目的 探讨地震对灾区人群血浆同型半胱氨酸( homocysteine,HCY)水平的影响.方法 随机抽取150名汶川地震灾民(研究组)、150名健康体检者(对照组)进行心理问卷调查,测定血浆HCY水平.结果 研究组症状自评量表得分显著高于对照组,血浆HCY水平显著高于对照组[(24.4±10.9)μmol/L vs( 17.2±3.8)mol/L,P＜0.01]；血浆HCY水平与焦虑自评量表(Self-Rating Anxiety Scale,SAS)和抑郁自评量表(Self-Rating Depression Scale,SDS)得分呈正相关(HCY与SAS:r=0.968；HCY与SDS:r=0.979,均P＜0.01).结论 地震可引起灾民生理应激状态,导致机体血浆HCY水平升高.
Sobolev, G. A.; Zakrzhevskaya, N. A.; Sobolev, D. G.
Based on the analysis of the world's earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 6.5 for 1960-2013, it is shown that they cause global-scale coherent seismic oscillations which most distinctly manifest themselves in the period interval of 4-6 min during 1-3 days after the event. After these earthquakes, a repeated shock has an increased probability to occur in different seismically active regions located as far away as a few thousand km from the previous event, i.e., a remote interaction of seismic events takes place. The number of the repeated shocks N( t) decreases with time, which characterizes the memory of the lithosphere about the impact that has occurred. The time decay N( t) can be approximated by the linear, exponential, and powerlaw dependences. No distinct correlation between the spatial locations of the initial and repeated earthquakes is revealed. The probable triggering mechanisms of the remote interaction between the earthquakes are discussed. Surface seismic waves traveling several times around the Earth's, coherent oscillations, and global source are the most preferable candidates. This may lead to the accumulation and coalescence of ruptures in the highly stressed or weakened domains of a seismically active region, which increases the probability of a repeated earthquake.
Kapoor, Surya Prakash
The origin of earthquake has long been recognized as resulting from strike-slip instability of plate tectonics along the fault lines. Several events of earthquake around the globe have happened which cannot be explained by this theory. In this work we investigated the earthquake data along with other observed facts like heat flow profiles etc... of the Indian subcontinent. In our studies we found a high-quality correlation between the earthquake events, seismic prone zones, heat flow regions and the geothermal hot springs. As a consequence, we proposed a hypothesis which can adequately explain all the earthquake events around the globe as well as the overall geo-dynamics. It is basically the geothermal power, which makes the plates to stand still, strike and slip over. The plates are merely a working solid while the driving force is the geothermal energy. The violent flow and enormous pressure of this power shake the earth along the plate boundaries and also triggers the intra-plate seismicity. In the light o...
Local legends may contain information about real geological events of the past. Earthquake lights (EQL) can occur in the atmosphere over earthquake epicenter areas and adjacent faults before and during quakes. They may look like diffuse airglow, flashes, fiery pillars, and luminous balls. EQL may cause a mystical experience probably due to the influence of their electromagnetic fields on the brain. Subjective perception and interpretation of EQL depend on religious and cultural traditions. We...
Parsons, Thomas E.
Earthquakes occur within continental tectonic plates as well as at plate boundaries. Do clusters of such mid-plate events constitute zones of continuing hazard, or are they aftershocks of long-past earthquakes?
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Earthquakes represent one of the most destructive natural hazards known to man. A serious result of large-magnitude earthquakes is the disruption of transportation...
The authors firstly evaluate the strain accumulation rate of the Xianshuihe fault zone based on earth- quake activity. We calculated the stress and seismic moment accumulation rate for each subsection of the Xianshuihe fault zone based on the distribution of geological slip rate and GPS survey results. According to the results, we get the recurrence intervals of characterized earthquakes on each sub- section respectively. A three-dimensional finite element model for western Sichuan is constructed to discuss the earthquakes triggering among major earthquakes (M>6.7) that occurred along the Xianshuihe fault zone since 1893. The calculated Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) show that 5 of the 6 earthquakes with Ms>6.7 were triggered by positive ΔCFS. The interactions between major earthquakes not only influence recurrence intervals of characterized earthquakes on each subsection, but also change recurrence behavior of major earthquakes along the whole fault zone.
潘华; 赵凤新; 高孟潭
@@ Introduction With rapid development and advancement of economy and society, lots of city groups or city belts with ex-tra-large cities as their centers have been formed in China. The regions these city groups lie in usually havewell-developed economy, dense population, and are regional politics and culture centers. Some groups lie in theregions with high level of earthquake activity, such as the Surrounding Capital City Group with the centers of Bei-jing and Tianjin. Once a large earthquake occurs, its influence will spread to very extensive region and its disasterwill be tremendous too. So earthquake resistance and disaster mitigation of city group will be very significant issue.The cities in a group have close distance with each other; they can carry out unified preparation for disaster as onewhole and reduce the heavy load of single city before an earthquake, and have an advantage of prompt mutual-aidafter an earthquake because of close distance. It is especially significant to mitigate the lose of lives. One importantprecondition is that all the cities in one group cannot be exposed to the same level of destroy during one earth-quake. So the division of city group in the region with dense cities distribution shall be very significant to theemergent mutual-aid in early time after a large earthquake. For this goal, the characteristics and correlativity ofearthquake′s impact on cities in one group need to clearly be considered. The cities with similar features and strongcorrelativity of historical earthquake influence have large chance to suffer same level destroy during the futurestrong earthquake and are disadvantage to provide mutual-aid and shall not be divided into one group.
Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B.
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify 'chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as random. The null distribution of the number of successful predictions - or any other test statistic - is taken to be its distribution when the fixed set of predictions is applied to random seismicity. Such tests tacitly assume that the predictions do not depend on the observed seismicity. Conditioning on the predictions in this way sets a low hurdle for statistical significance. Consider this scheme: When an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurs anywhere in the world, predict that an earthquake at least as large will occur within 21 days and within an epicentral distance of 50 km. We apply this rule to the Harvard centroid-moment-tensor (CMT) catalog for 2000-2004 to generate a set of predictions. The null hypothesis is that earthquake times are exchangeable conditional on their magnitudes and locations and on the predictions - a common "nonparametric" assumption in the literature. We generate random seismicity by permuting the times of events in the CMT catalog. We consider an event successfully predicted only if (i) it is predicted and (ii) there is no larger event within 50 km in the previous 21 days. The P-value for the observed success rate is <0.001: The method successfully predicts about 5% of earthquakes, far better than 'chance' because the predictor exploits the clustering of earthquakes - occasional foreshocks - which the null hypothesis lacks. Rather than condition on the predictions and use a stochastic model for seismicity, it is preferable to treat the observed seismicity as fixed, and to compare the success rate of the predictions to the success rate of simple-minded predictions like those just described. If the proffered predictions do no better than a simple scheme, they have little value.
Simsek, Canan Lacin
Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…
Main, I. G.; NicBhloscaidh, M.; McCloskey, J.; Pelling, M.; Naylor, M.
Death tolls in earthquakes, which continue to grow rapidly, are the result of complex interactions between physical effects, such as strong shaking, and the resilience of exposed populations and supporting critical infrastructures and institutions. While it is clear that the social context in which the earthquake occurs has a strong effect on the outcome, the influence of this context can only be exposed if we first decouple, as much as we can, the physical causes of mortality from our consideration. (Our modelling assumes that building resilience to shaking is a social factor governed by national wealth, legislation and enforcement and governance leading to reduced levels of corruption.) Here we attempt to remove these causes by statistically modelling published mortality, shaking intensity and population exposure data; unexplained variance from this physical model illuminates the contribution of socio-economic factors to increasing earthquake mortality. We find that this variance partitions countries in terms of basic socio-economic measures and allows the definition of a national vulnerability index identifying both anomalously resilient and anomalously vulnerable countries. In many cases resilience is well correlated with GDP; people in the richest countries are unsurprisingly safe from even the worst shaking. However some low-GDP countries rival even the richest in resilience, showing that relatively low cost interventions can have a positive impact on earthquake resilience and that social learning between these countries might facilitate resilience building in the absence of expensive engineering interventions.
Wang, Ying; Zhang, Keyin; Gan, Qigang; Zhou, Wen; Xiong, Liang; Zhang, Shihua; Liu, Chao
China has a long history of earthquake records, and the Longmenshan fault system (LFS) is a famous earthquake zone. We believed that the LFS could be divided into three seismogenic zones (north, central, and south zones) based on the geological structures and the earthquake catalog. We applied the Bayesian probability method using extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences to estimate the seismic hazard in the LFS. The seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate, and magnitude were considered as the basic parameters for computing the Bayesian prior estimates of the seismicity. These estimates were then updated in terms of Bayes' theorem and historical estimates of seismicity in the LFS. Generally speaking, the north zone seemingly is quite peaceful compared with the central and south zones. The central zone is the most dangerous; however, the periodicity of earthquake occurrences for M s = 8.0 is quite long (1,250 to 5,000 years). The selection of upper bound probable magnitude influences the result, and the upper bound magnitude of the south zone maybe 7.5. We obtained the empirical relationship of magnitude conversion for M s and ML, the values of the magnitude of completeness Mc (3.5), and the Gutenberg-Richter b value before applying the Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences method.
Holm, Isak Winkel
In the vocabulary of modern disaster research, Heinrich von Kleist's seminal short story "The Earthquake in Chile" from 1806 is a tale of disaster vulnerability. The story is not just about a natural disaster destroying the innocent city of Santiago but also about the ensuing social disaster...
Jones, K. B., II; Saxton, P. T.
Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake, American earthquake investigators predetermined magnetometer use and a minimum earthquake magnitude necessary for EM detection. This action was set in motion, due to the extensive damage incurred and public outrage concerning earthquake forecasting; however, the magnetometers employed, grounded or buried, are completely subject to static and electric fields and have yet to correlate to an identifiable precursor. Secondly, there is neither a networked array for finding any epicentral locations, nor have there been any attempts to find even one. This methodology needs dismissal, because it is overly complicated, subject to continuous change, and provides no response time. As for the minimum magnitude threshold, which was set at M5, this is simply higher than what modern technological advances have gained. Detection can now be achieved at approximately M1, which greatly improves forecasting chances. A propagating precursor has now been detected in both the field and laboratory. Field antenna testing conducted outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013, detected three strong EM sources along with numerous weaker signals. The antenna had mobility, and observations were noted for recurrence, duration, and frequency response. Next, two
Earthquake DSS is an information technology environment which can be used by government to sharpen, make faster and better the earthquake mitigation decision. Earthquake DSS can be delivered as E-government which is not only for government itself but in order to guarantee each citizen's rights for education, training and information about earthquake and how to overcome the earthquake. Knowledge can be managed for future use and would become mining by saving and maintain all the data and information about earthquake and earthquake mitigation in Indonesia. Using Web technology will enhance global access and easy to use. Datawarehouse as unNormalized database for multidimensional analysis will speed the query process and increase reports variation. Link with other Disaster DSS in one national disaster DSS, link with other government information system and international will enhance the knowledge and sharpen the reports.
Peyrat, S.; Madariaga, R.; Campos, J.; Asch, G.; Favreau, P.; Bernard, P.; Vilotte, J.
We investigated the detail rupture process of the Tocopilla earthquake (Mw 7.7) of the 14 November 2007 and of the main aftershocks that occurred in the southern part of the North Chile seismic gap using strong motion data. The earthquake happen in the middle of the permanent broad band and strong motion network IPOC newly installed by GFZ and IPGP, and of a digital strong-motion network operated by the University of Chile. The Tocopilla earthquake is the last large thrust subduction earthquake that occurred since the major Iquique 1877 earthquake which produced a destructive tsunami. The Arequipa (2001) and Antofagasta (1995) earthquakes already ruptured the northern and southern parts of the gap, and the intraplate intermediate depth Tarapaca earthquake (2005) may have changed the tectonic loading of this part of the Peru-Chile subduction zone. For large earthquakes, the depth of the seismic rupture is bounded by the depth of the seismogenic zone. What controls the horizontal extent of the rupture for large earthquakes is less clear. Factors that influence the extent of the rupture include fault geometry, variations of material properties and stress heterogeneities inherited from the previous ruptures history. For subduction zones where structures are not well known, what may have stopped the rupture is not obvious. One crucial problem raised by the Tocopilla earthquake is to understand why this earthquake didn't extent further north, and at south, what is the role of the Mejillones peninsula that seems to act as a barrier. The focal mechanism was determined using teleseismic waveforms inversion and with a geodetic analysis (cf. Campos et al.; Bejarpi et al., in the same session). We studied the detailed source process using the strong motion data available. This earthquake ruptured the interplate seismic zone over more than 150 km and generated several large aftershocks, mainly located south of the rupture area. The strong-motion data show clearly two S
Novotný, M.; Špičák, A.; Weinlich, F. H.
The West Bohemia and adjacent Vogtland are well known for quasi-periodical earthquake swarms persisting for centuries. The seismogenic area near Nový Kostel involved about 90 % of overall earthquake activity clustered here in space and time. The latest major earthquake swarm took place in August-September 2011. In 1994 and 1997, two minor earthquake swarms appeared in another location, near Lazy. Recently, the depth-recursive tomography yielded a velocity image with an improved resolution along the CEL09 refraction profile passing between these swarm areas. The resolution, achieved in the velocity image and its agreement with the inverse gravity modeling along the collateral 9HR reflection profile, enabled us to reveal the key structural background of these West Bohemia earthquake swarms. The CEL09 velocity image detected two deeply rooted high-velocity bodies adjacent to the Nový Kostel and Lazy focal zones. They correspond to two Variscan mafic intrusions influenced by the SE inclined slab of Saxothuringian crust that subducted beneath the Teplá-Barrandian terrane in the Devonian era. In their uppermost SE inclined parts, they roof both focal zones. The high P-wave velocities of 6,100-6,200 m/s, detected in both roofing caps, indicate their relative compactness and impermeability. The focal domains themselves are located in the almost gradient-free zones with the swarm foci spread near the axial planes of profound velocity depressions. The lower velocities of 5,950-6,050 m/s, observed in the upper parts of focal zones, are indicative of less compact rock complexes corrugated and tectonically disturbed by the SE bordering magma ascents. The high-velocity/high-density caps obviously seal the swarm focal domains because almost no magmatic fluids of mantle origin occur in the Nový Kostel and Lazy seismogenic areas of the West Bohemia/Vogtland territory, otherwise rich in the mantle-derived fluids. This supports the hypothesis of the fluid triggering of earthquake
Bucholc, Magda; Steacy, Sandy
We analyse the influence of the solid Earth tides and ocean loading on the occurrence time of Southern California earthquakes. For each earthquake, we calculate tidal Coulomb failure stress and stress rate on a fault plane that is assumed to be controlled by the orientation of the adjacent fault. To reduce bias when selecting data for testing the tide-earthquake relationship, we create four earthquake catalogues containing events within 1, 1.5, 2.5 and 5 km of nearest faults. We investigate the difference in seismicity rates at times of positive and negative tidal stresses/stress rates given three different cases. We consider seismicity rates during times of positive versus negative stress and stress rate, as well as 2 and 3 hr surrounding the local tidal stress extremes. We find that tidal influence on earthquake occurrence is found to be statistically non-random only in close proximity to tidal extremes meaning that magnitude of tidal stress plays an important role in tidal triggering. A non-random tidal signal is observed for the reverse events. Along with a significant increase in earthquake rates around tidal Coulomb stress maxima, the strength of tidal correlation is found to be closely related to the amplitude of the peak tidal Coulomb stress (τp). The most effective tidal triggering is found for τp ≥ 1 kPa, which is much smaller than thresholds suggested for static and dynamic triggering of aftershocks.
王定玺; 李小麟; 吴学华; 朱仕超
Obj ective:To know about the quality of life of the disabled in-Wenchuan earthquake stricken area after 2 years,and to analyze its influen-cing factors,so as to provide evidences for the rehabilitation of disabled per-sons and enhance their quality of life.Methods:After 2 years of Wenchuan earthquake,a total of 172 earthquake disabled persons in heavy disaster area were investigated on their quality of life by cross sectional survey,and the survey tool was concise health survey questionnaire (SF 3 6 ).Results:Af-ter 2 years,all mental health related qualty of life scores of quality of life in 172 cases earthquake disabled persons were lower than that of ordinary residents in Sichuan province;physical function score and general health score were higher than that in 1 year after the earthquake,and after 2 years in addition to the social functions,all dimensions scores were lower than that in 1 year after the earthquake (P<0.05).Single factor analysis was carried out for the 9 factors which may impact the quality of life of the earthquake disabled persons,and the results showed that gender,employ-ment status and disability complications had influence on the quality of life. The quality of life of disabled persons who were male and had disability complications and continued to work was higher than that of disabled per-sons who were female,leisure at home and had disability complications. Multivariate analysis of the quality of life of disabled persons in earthquake showed that the influencing factors of physical health related quality of life of disabled persons in earthquakes were:disability complications,disability complications,per capita monthly income,family structure changes;the in-fluencing factors of the earthquake damage residual mental health related quality of life of disabled persons in earthquakes:disability complications and sex.Conclusion:In 2 years after earthquake the quality of life of the earthquake disabled persons was lower than that of the general
In order to evaluate an influence of earthquake acceleration to the boiling two-phase flow behavior in nuclear reactors, numerical simulations were performed under the simulated earthquake condition. The two-phase flow analysis code, ACE-3D, was modified as the influence of the earth quake acceleration can calculate. To check out if the modification is adequate, a series of calculations were carried out and the following summaries were derived; 1) the void fraction in the fuel bundle receives the influence of the earthquake, 2) the liquid-phase in the two-phase flow moves in the same direction as the direction of oscillation due to the inputted earthquake acceleration, and 3) due to the density difference in comparison with the liquid phase, the gas phase of that moves in the direction opposite to the oscillating direction. This study enabled visualized evaluation of the boiling two-phase flow behavior in the nuclear reactors at the earthquake condition. (author)
Earthquake hazard analysis is of considerable importance for Switzerland, a country with moderate seismic activity but high economic values at risk. The evaluation of earthquake hazard, i.e. the determination of return periods versus ground motion parameters, requires a description of earthquake occurrences in space and time. In this study the seismic hazard for major cities in Switzerland is determined. The seismic hazard analysis is based on historic earthquake records as well as instrumental data. The historic earthquake data show considerable uncertainties concerning epicenter location and epicentral intensity. A specific concept is required, therefore, which permits the description of the uncertainties of each individual earthquake. This is achieved by probability distributions for earthquake size and location. Historical considerations, which indicate changes in public earthquake awareness at various times (mainly due to large historical earthquakes), as well as statistical tests have been used to identify time periods of complete earthquake reporting as a function of intensity. As a result, the catalog is judged to be complete since 1878 for all earthquakes with epicentral intensities greater than IV, since 1750 for intensities greater than VI, since 1600 for intensities greater than VIII, and since 1300 for intensities greater than IX. Instrumental data provide accurate information about the depth distribution of earthquakes in Switzerland. In the Alps, focal depths are restricted to the uppermost 15 km of the crust, whereas below the northern Alpine foreland earthquakes are distributed throughout the entire crust (30 km). This depth distribution is considered in the final hazard analysis by probability distributions. (author) figs., tabs., refs
Erdik, M.; Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.
Through a World Bank project a government-sponsored Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool (TCIP) is created in 2000 with the essential aim of transferring the government's financial burden of replacing earthquake-damaged housing to international reinsurance and capital markets. Providing coverage to about 2.9 Million homeowners TCIP is the largest insurance program in the country with about 0.5 Billion USD in its own reserves and about 2.3 Billion USD in total claims paying capacity. The total payment for earthquake damage since 2000 (mostly small, 226 earthquakes) amounts to about 13 Million USD. The country-wide penetration rate is about 22%, highest in the Marmara region (30%) and lowest in the south-east Turkey (9%). TCIP is the sole-source provider of earthquake loss coverage up to 90,000 USD per house. The annual premium, categorized on the basis of earthquake zones type of structure, is about US90 for a 100 square meter reinforced concrete building in the most hazardous zone with 2% deductible. The earthquake engineering related shortcomings of the TCIP is exemplified by fact that the average rate of 0.13% (for reinforced concrete buildings) with only 2% deductible is rather low compared to countries with similar earthquake exposure. From an earthquake engineering point of view the risk underwriting (Typification of housing units to be insured, earthquake intensity zonation and the sum insured) of the TCIP needs to be overhauled. Especially for large cities, models can be developed where its expected earthquake performance (and consequently the insurance premium) can be can be assessed on the basis of the location of the unit (microzoned earthquake hazard) and basic structural attributes (earthquake vulnerability relationships). With such an approach, in the future the TCIP can contribute to the control of construction through differentiation of premia on the basis of earthquake vulnerability.
Adhikari, Basanta Raj; Andermann, Christoff; Cook, Kristen
Strong shaking by earthquake causes massif landsliding with severe effects on infrastructure and human lives. The distribution of landslides and other hazards are depending on the combination of earthquake and local characteristics which influence the dynamic response of hillslopes. The Himalayas are one of the most active mountain belts with several kilometers of relief and is very prone to catastrophic mass failure. Strong and shallow earthquakes are very common and cause wide spread collapse of hillslopes, increasing the background landslide rate by several magnitude. The Himalaya is facing many small and large earthquakes in the past i.e. earthquakes i.e. Bihar-Nepal earthquake 1934 (Ms 8.2); Large Kangra earthquake of 1905 (Ms 7.8); Gorkha earthquake 2015 (Mw 7.8). The Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake has occurred on and around the main Himalayan Thrust with a hypocentral depth of 15 km (GEER 2015) followed by Mw 7.3 aftershock in Kodari causing 8700+ deaths and leaving hundreds of thousands of homeless. Most of the 3000 aftershocks located by National Seismological Center (NSC) within the first 45 days following the Gorkha Earthquake are concentrated in a narrow 40 km-wide band at midcrustal to shallow depth along the strike of the southern slope of the high Himalaya (Adhikari et al. 2015) and the ground shaking was substantially lower in the short-period range than would be expected for and earthquake of this magnitude (Moss et al. 2015). The effect of this earthquake is very unique in affected areas by showing topographic effect, liquefaction and land subsidence. More than 5000 landslides were triggered by this earthquake (Earthquake without Frontiers, 2015). Most of the landslides are shallow and occurred in weathered bedrock and appear to have mobilized primarily as raveling failures, rock slides and rock falls. Majority of landslides are limited to a zone which runs east-west, approximately parallel the lesser and higher Himalaya. There are numerous cracks in
Shafique, Muhammad; van der Meijde, Mark; Khan, M. Asif
The 8th October 2005 Kashmir earthquake, in northern Pakistan has triggered thousands of landslides, which was the second major factor in the destruction of the build-up environment, after earthquake-induced ground shaking. Subsequent to the earthquake, several researchers from home and abroad applied a variety of remote sensing techniques, supported with field observations, to develop inventories of the earthquake-triggered landslides, analyzed their spatial distribution and subsequently developed landslide-susceptibility maps. Earthquake causative fault rupture, geology, anthropogenic activities and remote sensing derived topographic attributes were observed to have major influence on the spatial distribution of landslides. These were subsequently used to develop a landslide susceptibility map, thereby demarcating the areas prone to landsliding. Temporal studies monitoring the earthquake-induced landslides shows that the earthquake-induced landslides are stabilized, contrary to earlier belief, directly after the earthquake. The biggest landslide induced dam, as a result of the massive Hattian Bala landslide, is still posing a threat to the surrounding communities. It is observed that remote sensing data is effectively and efficiently used to assess the landslides triggered by the Kashmir earthquake, however, there is still a need of more research to understand the mechanism of intensity and distribution of landslides; and their continuous monitoring using remote sensing data at a regional scale. This paper, provides an overview of remote sensing and GIS applications, for the Kashmir-earthquake triggered landslides, derived outputs and discusses the lessons learnt, advantages, limitations and recommendations for future research.
J. R. Holliday
Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.
In January 1978, an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 took place off the Pacific coast of Honshu, Japan about 110 km south-west-south of Tokyo, which caused some casualties and property damage. This earthquake was preceded by a large number of foreshocks and followed by many aftershocks. The earthquake itself was not very large as a natural event. However, it did provide a number of lessons on the importance of issuing timely information to the public in order to mitigate the impact of earthquake disasters. (author). 1 fig
Murru, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Console, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Falcone, G.; Earth Science Department, Messina University
We have applied an earthquake clustering epidemic model to real time data at the Italian Earthquake Data Center operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for short-term forecasting of moderate and large earthquakes in Italy. In this epidemic-type model every earthquake is regarded, at the same time, as being triggered by previous events and triggering following earthquakes. The model uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic...
In the Federal Republic of Germany KTA rule 2201 being the basis for the design of nuclear power plants against seismic events is now under discussion for revisions. One of the main demands to modify KTA rule 2201 consists in cancelling the existing design philosophy, i.e. design against an operating basis earthquake (AEB) as well as against a safe shutdown earthquake (SEB). When using the present rule the 'lower' earthquake (AEB) can become design-predominant, since for AEB and SEB different types of load cases are to be superimposed with different safety factors. The scope of this study is to quantify by parametric analyses so-called 'elastic bearing capacity limit margins' for seismic events; hereby different seismic input criteria - conventional as well as recently proposed are taken into account to investigate the influence of eventual modifications in seismic design philosophy. This way a relation between AEB and SEB has to be defined so that SEB is just still predominant for the design while AEB still will yield to elastic behaviour. The study covers all German site conditions
Quinteros Cartaya, C. B.; Nava Pichardo, F. A.; Glowacka, E.; Gómez Treviño, E.; Dmowska, R.
Large earthquakes have semi-periodic behavior as a result of critically self-organized processes of stress accumulation and release in seismogenic regions. Hence, large earthquakes in a given region constitute semi-periodic sequences with recurrence times varying slightly from periodicity. In previous papers, it has been shown that it is possible to identify these sequences through Fourier analysis of the occurrence time series of large earthquakes from a given region, by realizing that not all earthquakes in the region need belong to the same sequence, since there can be more than one process of stress accumulation and release in the region. Sequence identification can be used to forecast earthquake occurrence with well determined confidence bounds. This paper presents improvements on the above mentioned sequence identification and forecasting method: the influence of earthquake size on the spectral analysis, and its importance in semi-periodic events identification are considered, which means that earthquake occurrence times are treated as a labeled point process; a revised estimation of non-randomness probability is used; a better estimation of appropriate upper limit uncertainties to use in forecasts is introduced; and the use of Bayesian analysis to evaluate the posterior forecast performance is applied. This improved method was successfully tested on synthetic data and subsequently applied to real data from some specific regions. As an example of application, we show the analysis of data from the northeastern Japan Arc region, in which one semi-periodic sequence of four earthquakes with M ≥ 8.0, having high non-randomness probability was identified. We compare the results of this analysis with those of the unlabeled point process analysis.
Mulargia, Francesco; Bizzarri, Andrea
The physical mechanism of the anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes on active faults is studied on the basis of experimental phenomenology, i.e., that earthquakes occur on active tectonic faults, that crustal stress values are those measured in situ and, on active faults, comply to the values of the stress drop measured for real earthquakes, that the static friction coefficients are those inferred on faults, and that the effective triggering stresses are those inferred for real earthquakes. Deriving the conditions for earthquake nucleation as a time-dependent solution of the Tresca-Von Mises criterion applied in the framework of poroelasticity yields that active faults can be triggered by fluid overpressures < 0.1 MPa. Comparing this with the deviatoric stresses at the depth of crustal hypocenters, which are of the order of 1-10 MPa, we find that injecting in the subsoil fluids at the pressures typical of oil and gas production and storage may trigger destructive earthquakes on active faults at a few tens of kilometers. Fluid pressure propagates as slow stress waves along geometric paths operating in a drained condition and can advance the natural occurrence of earthquakes by a substantial amount of time. Furthermore, it is illusory to control earthquake triggering by close monitoring of minor ``foreshocks'', since the induction may occur with a delay up to several years.
John Roach; 李晓辉
@@ Earthquake prediction is an imprecise science, and to illustrate the point,many experts point to the story of Tangshen①, China. On July 28, 1976, a magnitude② 7. 6 earthquake struck the city of Tangshen, China, without warning. None of the signs of the successful prediction from a year and half earlier were present. An estimated 250,000 people died.
The main purposes of this activity are to help students explore possible factors affecting the extent of the damage of earthquakes and learn the ways to reduce earthquake damages. In these inquiry-based activities, students have opportunities to develop science process skills and to build an understanding of the relationship among science,…
Bailey, Nancy E.
Millions of U.S. children attend schools that are not safe from earthquakes, even though they are in earthquake-prone zones. Several cities and states have worked to identify and repair unsafe buildings, but many others have done little or nothing to fix the problem. The reasons for ignoring the problem include political and financial ones, but…
Robert Kovach's second book looks at the interplay of earthquake and volcanic events, archeology, and history in the Americas. Throughout history, major earthquakes have caused the deaths of millions of people and have damaged countless cities. Earthquakes undoubtedly damaged prehistoric cities in the Americas, and evidence of these events could be preserved in archeological records. Kovach asks, Did indigenous native cultures-Indians of the Pacific Northwest, Aztecs, Mayas, and Incas-document their natural history? Some events have been explicitly documented, for example, in Mayan codices, but many may have been recorded as myth and legend. Kovach's discussions of how early cultures dealt with fearful events such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are colorful, informative, and entertaining, and include, for example, a depiction of how the Maya would talk to maize plants in their fields during earthquakes to reassure them.
Page, Morgan T.
Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting earthquake source models quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an earthquake and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source models are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of earthquake source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other earthquakerelated computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.
Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.
The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.
A comparative study is performed on volcanic seismicities at Mt.Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland and Mt. Etna in Sicily, Italy, from the viewpoint of science of complex systems, and the discovery of remarkable similarities between them regarding their exotic spatio-temporal properties is reported. In both of the volcanic seismicities as point processes, the jump probability distributions of earthquakes are found to obey the exponential law, whereas the waiting-time distributions follow the power law. In particular, a careful analysis is made about the finite size effects on the waiting-time distributions, and accordingly, the previously reported results for Mt. Etna [S. Abe and N. Suzuki, EPL 110, 59001 (2015)] are reinterpreted. It is shown that spreads of the volcanic earthquakes are subdiffusive at both of the volcanoes. The aging phenomenon is observed in the "event-time-averaged" mean-squared displacements of the hypocenters. A comment is also made on presence/absence of long term memories in the context of t...
Wang, Zhi; Wang, Xuben
Global seismic waveform inversion can reveal where rupture initiated and how it expanded for the 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake, Sichuan province of China. To investigate the generation mechanism of the Lushan earthquake and its relation to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Ms 8.0), we installed 50 temporal seismic stations at the source area following the Lushan earthquake. We also collected crustal stress data along the Longmen-Shan fault zone (LMFZ) to reveal its influence on the Lushan earthquake generation. Our seismic imaging and crustal stress analysis indicates that the Lushan earthquake occurred in a distinct area with high-velocity (Vp, Vs), low-Poisson's ratio (σp and high crustal stress. The high velocity zone at the Lushan source may reflect the metamafic seismogenic layer that enables the accumulation of high crustal stress for large earthquake generation. However, a sharp contrast gap zone with low velocity and high-gσ anomalies is clearly imaged in the upper crust under the conjunction area between the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes. Our seismic images indicate that the slow velocity gap zone is associated with fluid-bearing ductile flow from the lower crustal materials of Tibet being pushed into the weakened segment of the LMFZ. Our study suggests that the 2013 Lushan earthquake may have been triggered by the high crustal stress accumulation together with the high coseismic stress increased by the Wenchuan Earthquake in the metamafic seismogenic layer. The contrasting rheological variation in the crust and crustal stress change along the LMFZ controls the rupture processes of the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes, as well as the generation of new earthquakes in the future.
Full Text Available A devastating earthquake and tsunami hit Japan on March 11, 2011, followed by several long and intense aftershocks. Laboratory mice housed in the Tokyo, located approximately 330 km south of this earthquake's epicenter, displayed remarkable changes in a variety of behaviors and physiological measures. Although unusual pre-earthquake behaviors have been previously reported in laboratory animals, little is known about behavioral and physiological changes that occur after a great earthquake. In the present study, the effects of Tohoku earthquake on mice behavior were investigated. "Earthquake-experienced" mice displayed a marked increase in food consumption without gaining body weight in response to the earthquake. They also displayed enhanced anxiety, and in a formal fear memory task, showed significantly greater tone- and context-dependent conditioned freezing. Water maze performance of earthquake-experienced mice showed the quicker acquisition of the task, faster swim speed and longer swim distance than the naive mice. Serum corticosterone levels were elevated compared to the naive mice, indicating that the earthquake and aftershocks were stressful for the mice. These results demonstrate that great earthquakes strongly affect mouse behaviors and physiology. Although the effects of a variety of experimental manipulations on mouse behaviors in disease models or in models of higher cognitive functions have been extensively examined, researchers need to be aware how natural phenomena, such as earthquakes and perhaps other natural environmental factors, influence laboratory animal behaviors and physiology.
Liu Bing; Qi Yaoguang; Du Jiyun
Earthquake action is the main external factor which influences long-term safe operation of civil construction, especially of the high-rise building. Applying time-history method to simulate earthquake response process of civil construction foundation surrounding rock is an effective method for the anti-knock study of civil buildings. Therefore, this paper develops a civil building earthquake disaster three-dimensional dynamic finite element numerical simulation system. The system ...
Kato, Muneaki [Japan Atomic Power Co., Tokyo (Japan)
This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)
Mustafa ULAS; ATA, Fikret; Hasan Hüseyin BALIK
lot of people have died because of earthquakes every year. Therefore It is crucial to predict the time of the earthquakes reasonable time before it had happed. This paper presents recent information published in the literature about precursors of earthquakes. The relationships between earthquakes and ionosphere are targeted to guide new researches in order to study further to find novel prediction methods.
Earthquake prediction has been one of the earliest desires of the man. Scientists have worked hard to predict earthquakes for a long time. The results of these efforts can generally be divided into two methods of prediction: 1) Statistical Method, and 2) Empirical Method. In the first method, earthquakes are predicted using statistics and probabilities, while the second method utilizes variety of precursors for earthquake prediction. The latter method is time consuming and more costly. However, the result of neither method has fully satisfied the man up to now. In this paper a new method entitled 'Kiana Method' is introduced for earthquake prediction. This method offers more accurate results yet lower cost comparing to other conventional methods. In Kiana method the electrical and magnetic precursors are measured in an area. Then, the time and the magnitude of an earthquake in the future is calculated using electrical, and in particular, electrical capacitors formulas. In this method, by daily measurement of electrical resistance in an area we make clear that the area is capable of earthquake occurrence in the future or not. If the result shows a positive sign, then the occurrence time and the magnitude can be estimated by the measured quantities. This paper explains the procedure and details of this prediction method. (authors)
The Sumatra–Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 (Boxing Day 2004) and its tsunami will endure in our memories as one of the worst natural disasters of our time. For geophysicists, the scale of the devastation and the likelihood of another equally destructive earthquake set out a series of challenges of how we might use science not only to understand the earthquake and its aftermath but also to help in planning for future earthquakes in the region. In this article a brief account of these efforts is presented. Earthquake prediction is probably impossible, but earth scientists are now able to identify particularly dangerous places for future events by developing an understanding of the physics of stress interaction. Having identified such a dangerous area, a series of numerical Monte Carlo simulations is described which allow us to get an idea of what the most likely consequences of a future earthquake are by modelling the tsunami generated by lots of possible, individually unpredictable, future events. As this article was being written, another earthquake occurred in the region, which had many expected characteristics but was enigmatic in other ways. This has spawned a series of further theories which will contribute to our understanding of this extremely complex problem
A. S. Silina
Full Text Available A statistical analysis of several ionospheric parameters before earthquakes with magnitude M > 5.5 located less than 500 km from an ionospheric vertical sounding station is performed. Ionospheric effects preceding "deep" (depth h > 33 km and "crust" (h 33 km earthquakes were analysed separately. Data of nighttime measurements of the critical frequencies foF2 and foEs, the frequency fbEs and Es-spread at the middle latitude station Dushanbe were used. The frequencies foF2 and fbEs are proportional to the square root of the ionization density at heights of 300 km and 100 km, respectively. It is shown that two days before the earthquakes the values of foF2 averaged over the morning hours (00:00 LT–06:00 LT and of fbEs averaged over the nighttime hours (18:00 LT–06:00 LT decrease; the effect is stronger for the "deep" earthquakes. Analysing the coefficient of semitransparency which characterizes the degree of small-scale turbulence, it was shown that this value increases 1–4 days before "crust" earthquakes, and it does not change before "deep" earthquakes. Studying Es-spread which manifests itself as diffuse Es track on ionograms and characterizes the degree of large-scale turbulence, it was found that the number of Es-spread observations increases 1–3 days before the earthquakes; for "deep" earthquakes the effect is more intensive. Thus it may be concluded that different mechanisms of energy transfer from the region of earthquake preparation to the ionosphere occur for "deep" and "crust" events.
In the modern oil and gas industry, fracking of low-permeability reservoirs has resulted in a considerable increase in the production of oil and natural gas, but these fluid-injection activities also can induce earthquakes. Earthquakes induced by fracking are an inevitable consequence of the injection of fluid at high pressure, where the intent is to enhance permeability by creating a system of cracks and fissures that allow hydrocarbons to flow to the borehole. The micro-earthquakes induced during these highly-controlled procedures are generally much too small to be felt at the surface; indeed, the creation or reactivation of a large fault would be contrary to the goal of enhancing permeability evenly throughout the formation. Accordingly, the few case histories for which fracking has resulted in felt earthquakes have been due to unintended fault reactivation. Of greater consequence for inducing earthquakes, modern techniques for producing hydrocarbons, including fracking, have resulted in considerable quantities of coproduced wastewater, primarily formation brines. This wastewater is commonly disposed by injection into deep aquifers having high permeability and porosity. As reported in many case histories, pore pressure increases due to wastewater injection were channeled from the target aquifers into fault zones that were, in effect, lubricated, resulting in earthquake slip. These fault zones are often located in the brittle crystalline rocks in the basement. Magnitudes of earthquakes induced by wastewater disposal often exceed 4, the threshold for structural damage. Even though only a small fraction of disposal wells induce earthquakes large enough to be of concern to the public, there are so many of these wells that this source of seismicity contributes significantly to the seismic hazard in the United States, especially east of the Rocky Mountains where standards of building construction are generally not designed to resist shaking from large earthquakes.
Bhattacharya, Pathikrit; Kamal,; Samanta, Debashis
Our understanding of earthquakes is based on the theory of plate tectonics. Earthquake dynamics is the study of the interactions of plates (solid disjoint parts of the lithosphere) which produce seismic activity. Over the last about fifty years many models have come up which try to simulate seismic activity by mimicking plate plate interactions. The validity of a given model is subject to the compliance of the synthetic seismic activity it produces to the well known empirical laws which describe the statistical features of observed seismic activity. Here we present a review of two such models of earthquake dynamics with main focus on a relatively new model namely The Two Fractal Overlap Model.
A methodology is proposed for assessing the seismic safety margin of existing CANDU nuclear generating stations. The available seismic margin assessment approaches and the unique features of the CANDU system, were appraised. The proposed methodology includes: the characterization of the site margin earthquake, the definition of the performance criteria for the elements of a success path and determination of its seismic withstand capacity. It is proposed that the margin earthquake be established on the basis of a combined approach of using historical records and regional seismotectonic and site specific evaluations. The ability of the components and systems to withstand the margin earthquake is determined by database comparisons, inspection and analysis. (author)
Pisani, A. R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia; Piersanti, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Piatanesi, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Melini, D.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Soldati, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia
The giant earthquake of December 26 2004 off the west coast of northern Sumatra is likely to have affected Earth rotational parameters. A preliminary analysis of data obtained by Satellite Laser Ranging technique evidenced a step discontinuity of (1.5±0.4) mas in the instantaneous pole path in correspondence with the earthquake occurrence. Since a step-like temporal dependence is not compatible with the action of an earthquake on the inertia tensor, we test the hypothesis that the effect isní...
Earthquakes represent one of the most destructive natural hazards known to man. A large magnitude earthquake near a populated area can affect residents over thousands of square kilometers and cause billions of dollars in property damage. Such an event can kill or injure thousands of residents and disrupt the socioeconomic environment for months, sometimes years. A serious result of a large-magnitude earthquake is the disruption of transportation systems, which limits post-disaster emergency response. Movement of emergency vehicles, such as police cars, fire trucks and ambulances, is often severely restricted. Damage to transportation systems is categorized below by cause including: ground failure, faulting, vibration damage, and tsunamis.
Earthquake Zoning Maps (1945, 1947, 1963, 1972 and 1996) and Specifications for Construction in Disaster Areas (1947, 1953, 1962, 1968, 1975, 1996, 1997 and 2006) have been changed many times following the developments in engineering seismology, tectonic and seismo-tectonic invention and improved earthquake data collection. The aim of this study is to give information about this maps, which come into force at different dates since the introduction of the firs official Earthquake Zoning Map published in 1945 and is to assist for better understanding of the development phases of these maps
Consistently monitor seismicity over the world to alert civilian security forces, assess hazards, model and test building and industrial facilities behavior in the event of an earthquake. Thanks to instruments unique in Europe, CEA researchers acquired extensive know-how and international renown in the field. The recent commissioning of the CENALT Tsunami Warning Center and the setup of the SEISM Institute for research on earthquake hazards is just another proof of their expertise. For want of being able to predict earthquakes, these organizations aim at limiting losses in human lives and material damage. (authors)
Carlson, J M; Shaw, B E
We present an overview of our ongoing studies of the rich dynamical behavior of the uniform, deterministic Burridge--Knopoff model of an earthquake fault. We discuss the behavior of the model in the context of current questions in seismology. Some of the topics considered include: (1) basic properties of the model, such as the magnitude vs. frequency distribution and the distinction between small and large events; (2) dynamics of individual events, including dynamical selection of rupture propagation speeds; (3) generalizations of the model to more realistic, higher dimensional models; (4) studies of predictability, in which artificial catalogs generated by the model are used to test and determine the limitations of pattern recognition algorithms used in seismology.
During the last twenty years, a number of publications of theoretical-numerical nature have appeared which come to the apparently-reassuring conclusion that seismic motion on the ground in cities is smaller than what this motion would be in the absence of the buildings (but for the same underground and seismic load). Other than the fact that this finding tells nothing about the motion within the buildings, it must be confronted with the overwhelming empirical evidence (e.g, earthquakes in Sendai (2011), Kathmandu (2015), Tainan City (2016), etc.) that shaking within buildings of a city is often large enough to damage or even destroy these structures. I show, on several examples, that theory can be reconciled with empirical evidence, and suggest that the crucial subject of seismic response in cities is in need of more thorough research.
目的 了解抗震救灾官兵生活质量和心理健康状况及影响因素.方法 采用随机整群抽样法,应用WHOQOL-BREF和SCL-90量表,对驻昆明某部280名抗震救灾官兵和330名非抗震救灾官兵进行问卷调查.结果 (1)抗震救灾官兵生活质量的生理、心理、社会及环境各领域百分制得分分别为(58.65±15.02)分、(56.88±14.66)分、(63.01±17.92)分、(50.73±15.16)分.除社会领域外,其余三个领域与非抗震救灾官兵之间的差异有统计学意义(P＜0.01或P＜ 0.05).(2)在SCL-90评分中,除躯体化因子分外,抗震救灾官兵在其余各因子分均高于非抗震救灾官兵,且在强迫、抑郁、焦虑、恐怖、偏执和总均分两组之间的差异有统计学意义(P＜0.01).(3)民族、籍贯、学历、职别、婚姻状况和是否为独生子女对抗震救灾官兵生活质量和SCL-90评分有不同程度的影响和相关性(P＜0.01或P＜ 0.05).结论 抗震救灾官兵生活质量和心理健康水平均比非抗震救灾官兵差,其影响因素主要有民族、籍贯、学历、职别、婚姻状况和是否为独生子女等.%Objective To understand the quality of life and mental health status and influence factors on armed officers and soldiers from earthquake relief work. Methods sing cluster sampling and WHOQOL-BREF as well as the SCL-90 scale, a questionnaire survey was conducted in 280 officers and soldiers from earthquake relief work and 330 officers and soldiers not from earthquake relief work in Kunming. Results The scores of physiological, psychological, social and environmental domains of QOL among officers and soldiers from earthquake relief work were (58.65±15.02), (56.88±14.66), (63.01±l7.92), and (50.73±15.16), respectively. Statistically significant difference was found in the physiological, psychological, and environmental domains between officers and soldiers from earthquake relief work and those not from earthquake relief work (P<0.01 or P<0
The Sichuan earthquake in China occurred on May 12, 2008, along faults within the mountains, but near and almost parallel the mountain front, northwest of the city of Chengdu. This major quake caused immediate and severe damage to many villages and cities in the area. Aftershocks pose a continuing danger, but another continuing hazard is the widespread occurrence of landslides that have formed new natural dams and consequently new lakes. These lakes are submerging roads and flooding previously developed lands. But an even greater concern is the possible rapid release of water as the lakes eventually overflow the new dams. The dams are generally composed of disintegrated rock debris that may easily erode, leading to greater release of water, which may then cause faster erosion and an even greater release of water. This possible 'positive feedback' between increasing erosion and increasing water release could result in catastrophic debris flows and/or flooding. The danger is well known to the Chinese earthquake response teams, which have been building spillways over some of the new natural dams. This ASTER image, acquired on June 1, 2008, shows two of the new large landslide dams and lakes upstream from the town of Chi-Kua-Kan at 32o12'N latitude and 104o50'E longitude. Vegetation is green, water is blue, and soil is grayish brown in this enhanced color view. New landslides appear bright off-white. The northern (top) lake is upstream from the southern lake. Close inspection shows a series of much smaller lakes in an elongated 'S' pattern along the original stream path. Note especially the large landslides that created the dams. Some other landslides in this area, such as the large one in the northeast corner of the image, occur only on the mountain slopes, so do not block streams, and do not form lakes.
China is one of the countries with the longest tradition of culture and has suffered many earthquake disasters, so many earthquake documents have therefore been conserved. In this paper we try to outline some basic information of historical earthquake investigation and research in China, such as collection of historical earthquake data from archives, historical earthquake catalogues, seismic intensity scales. We introduce briefly the huge accomplishments of historical research and discuss ...
Galassi, Diana M. P.; Paola Lombardo; Barbara Fiasca; Alessia Di Cioccio; Tiziana Di Lorenzo; Marco Petitta; Piero Di Carlo
Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural events. The 6 April 2009, 6.3-Mw earthquake in L'Aquila (Italy) markedly altered the karstic Gran Sasso Aquifer (GSA) hydrogeology and geochemistry. The GSA groundwater invertebrate community is mainly comprised of small-bodied, colourless, blind microcrustaceans. We compared abiotic and biotic data from two pre-earthquake and one post-earthquake complete but non-contiguous hydrological years to investigate the effects of the 2009 earthquake ...
Slavov, S I; Panza, G F; Paskaleva, I; Vaccari, P
The city of Sofia is exposed to a high seismic risk. Macroseismic intensities in the range of VIII-X (MSK) can be expected in the city. The earthquakes, that can influence the hazard at Sofia, originate either beneath the city or are caused by seismic sources located within a radius of 40km. The city of Sofia is also prone to the remote Vrancea seismic zone in Romania, and particularly vulnerable are the long - period elements of the built environment. The high seismic risk and the lack of instrumental recordings of the regional seismicity makes the use of appropriate credible earthquake scenarios and ground motion modelling approaches for defining the seismic input for the city of Sofia necessary. Complete synthetic seismic signals, due to several earthquake scenarios, were computed along chosen geological profiles crossing the city, applying a hybrid technique, based on the modal summation technique and finite differences. The modelling takes into account simultaneously the geotechnical properties of the si...
This paper examines the geological and socio-political setting of the 1992 earthquake in northern Egypt. The main conclusions concern the importance of surface geology in controlling the nature of the earthquake impact, and the role of poor construction and maintenance standards (and lapses in building regulation enforcement) in influencing the vulnerability of buildings to failure. The heaviest human losses were associated with two main types of construction: firstly the old, dilapidated adobe houses of the poor in rural areas and in Cairo's inner city slums, and secondly certain modern, engineered (in some cases illegally) high-rise concrete constructions inhabited by the wealthy. The paper concludes by analysing the immediate response of the government and some non-governmental organisations in Egypt to the earthquake. Politicisation of the event is linked to broader issues of economic and social reform in the country and to the rise of Islamic Fundamentalist activity in all its forms. PMID:20958770
M. Rebuffat; Martini, M. G.; Cubellis, E.; 0; S. Castenetto; F. Bramerini; P SODDU
A series of multimedia monographs concerning the main seismic events that have affected the Italian territory are in the process of being produced for the Documental Integrated Multimedia Project (DIMP) started by the Italian National Seismic Survey (NSS). The purpose of the project is to reconstruct the historical record of earthquakes and promote an earthquake public education. Producing the monographs. developed in ARC INFO and working in UNIX. involved designing a special filing and manag...
Earle, Paul; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.
Daniel C. Bowden; Paul S. Earle; Michelle Guy
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure t...
Li, Gen; West, A. Joshua; Densmore, Alexander L.; Hammond, Douglas E.; Jin, Zhangdong; Zhang, Fei; Wang, Jin; Hilton, Robert G.
Evaluating the influence of earthquakes on erosion, landscape evolution, and sediment-related hazards requires understanding fluvial transport of material liberated in earthquake-triggered landslides. The location of landslides relative to river channels is expected to play an important role in postearthquake sediment dynamics. In this study, we assess the position of landslides triggered by the Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, aiming to understand the relationship between landslides and the fluvial network of the steep Longmen Shan mountain range. Combining a landslide inventory map and geomorphic analysis, we quantify landslide-channel connectivity in terms of the number of landslides, landslide area, and landslide volume estimated from scaling relationships. We observe a strong spatial variability in landslide-channel connectivity, with volumetric connectivity (ξ) ranging from ~20% to ~90% for different catchments. This variability is linked to topographic effects that set local channel densities, seismic effects (including seismogenic faulting) that regulate landslide size, and substrate effects that may influence both channelization and landslide size. Altogether, we estimate that the volume of landslides connected to channels comprises 43 + 9/-7% of the total coseismic landslide volume. Following the Wenchuan earthquake, fine-grained (influence of connectivity on suspended sediment yield may be related to mobilization of fine-grained landslide material that resides in hillslope domains, i.e., not directly connected to river channels. In contrast, transport of the coarser fraction (which makes up >90% of the total landslide volume) may be more significantly affected by landslide locations.
LIU Hong-gui; LIU Jie; DING Ye-ling; SUN Ye-jun; YU Xin
On the basis of the assumption that ω2 model accords with source displacement spectra, we have obtained the mathematical expressions for calculating apparent stresses of moderate-small shocks from low-frequency flat level and comer frequency. By using digital seismic records, apparent stress values are calculated for 823 moderate-small shocks of 4 earthquake series in Yunnan area following corrections for instrument response, propagation influence and site effect. The results show that for the 4 earthquake series in Yunnan area, apparent stress hints precursory information, which means that if a moderate-small shock occurs with apparent stress larger than 1 MPa in an earthquake series, a moderate-strong earthquake will occur afterwards; and if there is not moderate-small shock with apparent stress larger than 1 MPa after a moderate-strong event in an earthquake series, strong aftershock will not occur. The research also indicates that the average apparent stress value is 0.8 MPa in Yunnan area, therefore, apparent stress is not obviously related to seismic magnitude.
Melini, D.; Piersanti, A.; Spada, G.; Soldati, G.; Casarotti, E.; Boschi, E.
Using a spherical model of postseismic deformation, for the first time we have computed the global contribution of large earthquakes to the relative sealevel variations in the twentieth century. We have found that great earthquakes have the overall tendency to produce a sealevel rise, and that they affect the measurements taken at those tide-gauge sites that are commonly employed to obtain global estimates of sealevel rise. Though on a global scale most of the signal is associated with thrust events, on a regional scale the effects of great transcurrent earthquakes cannot be neglected. Depending on the viscosity of the asthenosphere, the contribution of earthquakes to the long-term sealevel changes amounts to at least 0.1 mm/yr. Thus, the climate-driven long-term sealevel changes deduced by tide-gauge observations may be slightly, but not negligibly, overestimated.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The behavior of columns during earthquakes is very important since column failures may lead to additional structural failures and result in total building...
Large earthquakes cause other quakes near and far. Analyses of quakes in Pakistan and Chile suggest that such triggering can occur almost instantaneously, making triggered events hard to detect, and potentially enhancing the associated hazards.
Shinbrot, Troy; Thyagu, Nirmal; Paehtz, Thomas; Herrmann, Hans
We present new data demonstrating (1) that electrostatic charging in sandstorms is a necessary outcome in a class of rapid collisional flows, and (2) that electrostatic precursors to slip events - long reported in earthquakes - can be reproduced in the laboratory.
The main procedures of diffusion of knowledge on earthquake prediction researches in space and time have been reconstructed. Scientific and economic constraint factors that caused difficulties or accelerations in seismic precursors researches have been investigated and commented
Namgaladze, A A; Zakharenkova, I E; Shagimuratov, I I; Martynenko, O V
The GPS derived anomalous TEC disturbances before earthquakes were discovered in the last years using global and regional TEC maps, measurements over individual stations as well as measurements along individual GPS satellite passes. For strong mid-latitudinal earthquakes the seismo-ionospheric anomalies look like local TEC enhancements or decreases located in the vicinity of the forthcoming earthquake epicenter In case of strong low-latitudinal earthquakes there are effects related with the modification of the equatorial F2-region anomaly: deepening or filling of the ionospheric electron density trough over the magnetic equator. We consider that the most probable reason of the NmF2 and TEC disturbances observed before the earthquakes is the vertical drift of the F2-region ionospheric plasma under the influence of the zonal electric field of seismic origin. To check this hypothesis, the model calculations have been carried out with the use of the Upper Atmosphere Model. The electric potential distribution at t...
Gutiérrez, E; Taucer, F; De Groeve, T; Al-Khudhairy, D H A; Zaldivar, J M
In this paper, mortality in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake is studied on a worldwide scale using multivariate analysis. A statistical method is presented that analyzes reported earthquake fatalities as a function of a heterogeneous set of parameters selected on the basis of their presumed influence on earthquake mortality. The ensemble was compiled from demographic, seismic, and reported fatality data culled from available records of past earthquakes organized in a geographic information system. The authors consider the statistical relation between earthquake mortality and the available data ensemble, analyze the validity of the results in view of the parametric uncertainties, and propose a multivariate mortality analysis prediction method. The analysis reveals that, although the highest mortality rates are expected in poorly developed rural areas, high fatality counts can result from a wide range of mortality ratios that depend on the effective population size. PMID:15937024
Wang, F.; Cheng, Q.; Highland, L.; Miyajima, M.; Wang, Hongfang; Yan, C.
The M s 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake or "Great Sichuan Earthquake" occurred at 14:28 p.m. local time on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Damage by earthquake-induced landslides was an important part of the total earthquake damage. This report presents preliminary observations on the Hongyan Resort slide located southwest of the main epicenter, shallow mountain surface failures in Xuankou village of Yingxiu Town, the Jiufengchun slide near Longmenshan Town, the Hongsong Hydro-power Station slide near Hongbai Town, the Xiaojiaqiao slide in Chaping Town, two landslides in Beichuan County-town which destroyed a large part of the town, and the Donghekou and Shibangou slides in Qingchuan County which formed the second biggest landslide lake formed in this earthquake. The influences of seismic, topographic, geologic, and hydro-geologic conditions are discussed. ?? 2009 Springer-Verlag.
Di Toro, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Pennacchioni, G.; Nielsen, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia
Destructive earthquakes nucleate at depth (10-15 km), therefore monitoring active faults at the Earth’s surface, or interpreting seismic waves, yields only limited information on earthquake mechanics. Tectonic pseudotachylytes (solidified friction-induced melts) decorate some exhumed ancient faults and remain, up to now, the only fault rocks recognized as the unambiguous signature of seismic slip. It follows that pseudotachylyte-bearing fault networks might retain a wealth of info...
Wang, Bin(Department of Physics and Astronomy, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China); Chen, Ya-Zheng; Li, Xue-Qian
We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival p...
Based on the sampling survey data of farmers in Wenchuan earthquake disaster area, Logistic regression analysis are carried out for whether farmers participate in the behavior of land usage right circulation and whether they will transfer the right of land use in or out, moreover,the hypothesized affecting factors of land usage right circulation are analyzed with principal component analysis. The results show that the influencing factors of rural land usage right circulation in earthquake disaster areas are basically consistent with the rational hypothesis, but the land circulation market has a series of problems, which deserves further study.%根据汶川地震灾区农户抽样调查数据,对农户是否参与土地使用权流转行为以及是否参与土地使用权的转入或转出行为进行了Logistic回归分析,并针对假设的土地使用权流特行为影响因素进行了主成分分析.结果表明,地震灾区农户土地流转行为的影响因素基本上符合理性假设.但农户土地流转市场还存在一系列问题,值得进一步研究.
Full Text Available Purpose: Performance assessments of earthquake medical rapid response teams (EMRRTs, particularly the first responders deployed to the hardest hit areas following major earthquakes, should consider efficient and effective use of resources. This study assesses the daily technical efficiency of EMRRTs in the emergency period immediately following the 2010 Yushu earthquake in China. Methods: Data on EMRRTs were obtained from official daily reports of the general headquarters for Yushu earthquake relief, the emergency office of the National Ministry of Health, and the Health Department of Qinghai Province, for a sample of data on 15 EMRRTs over 62 days. Data envelopment analysis was used to examine the technical efficiency in a constant returns to scale model, a variable returns to scale model, and the scale efficiency of EMRRTs. Tobit regression was applied to analyze the effects of corresponding influencing factors. Results: The average technical efficiency scores under constant returns to scale, variable returns to scale, and the scale efficiency scores of the 62 units of analysis were 77.95%, 89.00%, and 87.47%, respectively. The staff-to-bed ratio was significantly related to global technical efficiency. The date of rescue was significantly related to pure technical efficiency. The type of institution to which an EMRRT belonged and the staff-to-bed ratio were significantly related to scale efficiency. Conclusions: This study provides evidence that supports improvements to EMRRT efficiency and serves as a reference for earthquake emergency medical rapid assistance leaders and teams.
Chi, Heon Cheol; Lee, Hee Il; Jeon, Jeong Soo; Shin, In Chul; Kim, Dong Kyun; Park, Jung Ho; Kim, Geun Young [Korea Institute of Geology Mining and Materials, Taejon (Korea)
Building Code was recently amended in order to secure the safety and/or tolerance against disastrous earthquake. For the adequate but economical earthquake-resistant design, the possible maximum earthquake and the relevant waveform are crucial as input data with site characteristics. In this paper, the future plan of seismic observation network is proposed with both velocity and acceleration recordings : KIGAM, KEPRI and universities are presently involved in this plan. Nuclear power plant is fortified against earthquake since its failure results in unpredictable catastrophe. Nuclear power plant is strong enough to keep its function from big earthquake if the epicentral distance is greater than 15 Km. Here, the geological features around Youngkwang, Kori, Weolsung and Uljin nuclear power sites within 15 Km are described with geological map. Internet communications is rapidly popular at Korea. For efficient data exchange and convenient maintenance. the standard configuration of seismic station with TCP/IP communication is suggested. The procedure of constructing station is also explained with the emphasis of earth grounding. KIGAM purchased the automatic data retrieving and processing software, so-called Korea Earthquake Monitoring System (KEMS), with source code. KEMS uses CSS 3.0 schema for relational database with Oracle SQL engine. KIGAM is in charge of distributing down-sizing KEMS to seismic research universities. KIGAM is willing to supply the modified KEMS to any institute which wants to make network with KIGAM. Here, the networking through Internet is explained by sharing KEMS. (author). 85 refs., 15 tabs., 71 figs.
Earthquakes are some of the most elusive and destructive disasters humans interact with on this planet. Engineering structures to withstand earthquake shaking is critical to ensure minimal loss of life and property. However, the majority of buildings today in non-traditional earthquake prone areas are not built to withstand this devastating force. Understanding basic earthquake engineering principles and the effect of limited resources helps students grasp the challenge that lies ahead. The solution can be found in retrofitting existing buildings with proper reinforcements and designs to deal with this deadly disaster. The students were challenged in this project to construct a basic structure, using limited resources, that could withstand a simulated tremor through the use of an earthquake shake table. Groups of students had to work together to creatively manage their resources and ideas to design the most feasible and realistic type of building. This activity provided a wealth of opportunities for the students to learn more about a type of disaster they do not experience in this part of the country. Due to the fact that most buildings in New York City were not designed to withstand earthquake shaking, the students were able to gain an appreciation for how difficult it would be to prepare every structure in the city for this type of event.
邓起东; 高孟潭; 赵新平; 吴建春
The September 17, 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake occurred in Linfen basin of Shanxi down-faulted basin zone. It is the first recorded M=8 earthquake since the Chinese historical seismic records had started and is a great earthquake occurring in the active intracontinental basin. We had held a Meeting of the 700th Anniversary of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 Earthquake in Shanxi and a Symposium on Intracontinental Basins and Strong Earthquakes in Taiyuan City of Shanxi Province on September 17～18, 2003. The articles presented on the symposium discussed the relationships between active intracontinental basins of different properties, developed in different regions, including tensional graben and semi-graben basins in tensile tectonic regions, compression-depression basins and foreland basins in compressive tectonic regions and pull-apart basins in strike-slip tectonic zones, and strong earthquakes in China. In this article we make a brief summary of some problems. The articles published in this special issue are a part of the articles presented on the symposium.
EARTHQUAKES - VOLCANOES (CAUSES AND FORECAST) ELIAS TSIAPAS RESEARCHER NEA STYRA, EVIA,GREECE TEL.0302224041057 email@example.com The earthquakes are caused by large quantities of liquids (e.g. H2O, H2S, SO2, ect.) moving through lithosphere and pyrosphere (MOHO discontinuity) till they meet projections (mountains negative projections or projections coming from sinking lithosphere). The liquids are moved from West Eastward carried away by the pyrosphere because of differential speed of rotation of the pyrosphere by the lithosphere. With starting point an earthquake which was noticed at an area and from statistical studies, we know when, where and what rate an earthquake may be, which earthquake is caused by the same quantity of liquids, at the next east region. The forecast of an earthquake ceases to be valid if these components meet a crack in the lithosphere (e.g. limits of lithosphere plates) or a volcano crater. In this case the liquids come out into the atmosphere by the form of gasses carrying small quantities of lava with them (volcano explosion).
The potential seismic risk for an underground nuclear waste repository will be one of the considerations in evaluating its ultimate location. However, the risk to subsurface facilities cannot be judged by applying intensity ratings derived from the surface effects of an earthquake. A literature review and analysis were performed to document the damage and non-damage due to earthquakes to underground facilities. Damage from earthquakes to tunnels, s, and wells and damage (rock bursts) from mining operations were investigated. Damage from documented nuclear events was also included in the study where applicable. There are very few data on damage in the subsurface due to earthquakes. This fact itself attests to the lessened effect of earthquakes in the subsurface because mines exist in areas where strong earthquakes have done extensive surface damage. More damage is reported in shallow tunnels near the surface than in deep mines. In mines and tunnels, large displacements occur primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures or at the surface entrance to these facilities.Data indicate vertical structures such as wells and shafts are less susceptible to damage than surface facilities. More analysis is required before seismic criteria can be formulated for the siting of a nuclear waste repository
A new earthquake database for Romania is being constructed, comprising complete earthquake information and being up-to-date, user-friendly and rapidly accessible. One main component of the database consists from the catalog of earthquakes occurred in Romania since 984 up to present. The catalog contains information related to locations and other source parameters, when available, and links to waveforms of important earthquakes. The other very important component is the 'strong motion database', developed for strong intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes where instrumental data were recorded. Different parameters to characterize strong motion properties as: effective peak acceleration, effective peak velocity, corner periods Tc and Td, global response spectrum based intensities were computed and recorded into this database. Also, information on the recording seismic stations as: maps giving their positioning, photographs of the instruments and site conditions ('free-field or on buildings) are included. By the huge volume and quality of gathered data, also by its friendly user interface, the Romania earthquake data base provides a very useful tool for geosciences and civil engineering in their effort towards reducing seismic risk in Romania. (authors)
Friedel, Michael; Cox, Simon; Williams, Charles; Holden, Caroline
Artificial adaptive systems are evaluated for their usefulness in modeling earthquake hydrology of the Canterbury region, NZ. For example, an unsupervised machine-learning technique, self-organizing map, is used to fuse about 200 disparate and sparse data variables (such as, well pressure response, ground acceleration, intensity, shaking, stress and strain; aquifer and well characteristics) associated with the M7.1 Darfield earthquake in 2010 and the M6.3 Christchurch earthquake in 2011. The strength of correlations, determined using cross-component plots, varied between earthquakes with pressure changes more strongly related to dynamic- than static stress-related variables during the M7.1 earthquake, and vice versa during the M6.3. The method highlights the importance of data distribution and that driving mechanisms of earthquake-induced pressure change in the aquifers are not straight forward to interpret. In many cases, data mining revealed that confusion and reduction in correlations are associated with multiple trends in the same plot: one for confined and one for unconfined earthquake response. The autocontractive map and minimum spanning tree techniques are used for grouping variables of similar influence on earthquake hydrology. K-means clustering of neural information identified 5 primary regions influenced by the two earthquakes. The application of genetic doping to a genetic algorithm is used for identifying optimal subsets of variables in formulating predictions of well pressures. Predictions of well pressure changes are compared and contrasted using machine-learning network and symbolic regression models with prediction uncertainty quantified using a leave-one-out cross-validation strategy. These preliminary results provide impetus for subsequent analysis with information from another 100 earthquakes that occurred across the South Island.
Daniel C. Bowden
Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.
Kázmér, Miklós; Major, Balázs; Hariyadi, Agus; Pramumijoyo, Subagyo; Ditto Haryana, Yohanes
outermost layer was treated this way, the core of the shrines was made of simple rectangular blocks. The system resisted both in-plane and out-of-plane shaking quite well, as proven by survival of many shrines for more than a millennium, and by fracturing of blocks instead of displacement during the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake. Systematic use or disuse of known earthquake-resistant techniques in any one society depends on the perception of earthquake risk and on available financial resources. Earthquake-resistant construction practice is significantly more expensive than regular construction. Perception is influenced mostly by short individual and longer social memory. If earthquake recurrence time is longer than the preservation of social memory, if damaging quakes fade into the past, societies commit the same construction mistakes again and again. Length of the memory is possibly about a generation's lifetime. Events occurring less frequently than 25-30 years can be readily forgotten, and the risk of recurrence considered as negligible, not worth the costs of safe construction practices. (Example of recurring flash floods in Hungary.) Frequent earthquakes maintain safe construction practices, like the Java masonry technique throughout at least two centuries, and like the Fachwerk tradition on Modern Aegean Samos throughout 500 years of political and technological development. (OTKA K67583)
Insufficiencies in the fire protection system of the nuclear reactor facilities were pointed out when the fire occurred due to the Niigata prefecture-Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in July, 2007. This prompted the revision of the fire protection safety examination guideline for nuclear reactors as well as commercial guidelines. The commercial guidelines have been endorsed by the regulatory body. Now commercial fire protection standards for nuclear facilities such as the design guideline and the management guideline for protecting fire in the Light Water Reactors (LWRs) are available, however, those to apply to the nuclear fuel cycle facilities such as mixed oxide fuel fabrication facility (MFFF) have not been established. For the improvement of fire protection system of the nuclear fuel cycle facilities, the development of a standard for the fire protection, corresponding to the commercial standard for LWRs were required. Thus, Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES) formulated a fire protection guidelines for nuclear fuel cycle facilities as a standard relevant to the fire protection of the nuclear fuel cycle facilities considering functions specific to the nuclear fuel cycle facilities. In formulating the guidelines, investigation has been conduced on the commercial guidelines for nuclear reactors in Japan and the standards relevant to the fire protection of nuclear facilities in USA and other countries as well as non-nuclear industrial fire protection standards. The guideline consists of two parts; Equipments and Management, as the commercial guidances of the nuclear reactor. In addition, the acquisition of fire evaluation data for a components (an electric cabinet, cable, oil etc.) targeted for spread of fire and the evaluation model of fire source were continued for the fire hazard analysis (FHA). (author)
Benthien, M.; Marquis, J.; Jordan, T.
The Electronic Encyclopedia of Earthquakes is a collaborative project of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), the Consortia of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering (CUREE) and the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS). This digital library organizes earthquake information online as a partner with the NSF-funded National Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) Digital Library (NSDL) and the Digital Library for Earth System Education (DLESE). When complete, information and resources for over 500 Earth science and engineering topics will be included, with connections to curricular materials useful for teaching Earth Science, engineering, physics and mathematics. Although conceived primarily as an educational resource, the Encyclopedia is also a valuable portal to anyone seeking up-to-date earthquake information and authoritative technical sources. "E3" is a unique collaboration among earthquake scientists and engineers to articulate and document a common knowledge base with a shared terminology and conceptual framework. It is a platform for cross-training scientists and engineers in these complementary fields and will provide a basis for sustained communication and resource-building between major education and outreach activities. For example, the E3 collaborating organizations have leadership roles in the two largest earthquake engineering and earth science projects ever sponsored by NSF: the George E. Brown Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (CUREE) and the EarthScope Project (IRIS and SCEC). The E3 vocabulary and definitions are also being connected to a formal ontology under development by the SCEC/ITR project for knowledge management within the SCEC Collaboratory. The E3 development system is now fully operational, 165 entries are in the pipeline, and the development teams are capable of producing 20 new, fully reviewed encyclopedia entries each month. Over the next two years teams will
Otani, Yuki; Ando, Takayuki; Atobe, Kaori; Haiden, Akina; Kao, Sheng-Yuan; Saito, Kohei; Shimanuki, Marie; Yoshimoto, Norifumi; Fukunaga, Koichi
Between August 15th and 19th, 2011, eight 5th-year medical students from the Keio University School of Medicine had the opportunity to visit the Peking University School of Medicine and hold a discussion session titled "What is the most effective way to educate people for survival in an acute disaster situation (before the mental health care stage)?" During the session, we discussed the following six points: basic information regarding the Sichuan Earthquake and the East Japan Earthquake, differences in preparedness for earthquakes, government actions, acceptance of medical rescue teams, earthquake-induced secondary effects, and media restrictions. Although comparison of the two earthquakes was not simple, we concluded that three major points should be emphasized to facilitate the most effective course of disaster planning and action. First, all relevant agencies should formulate emergency plans and should supply information regarding the emergency to the general public and health professionals on a normal basis. Second, each citizen should be educated and trained in how to minimize the risks from earthquake-induced secondary effects. Finally, the central government should establish a single headquarters responsible for command, control, and coordination during a natural disaster emergency and should centralize all powers in this single authority. We hope this discussion may be of some use in future natural disasters in China, Japan, and worldwide. PMID:22410538
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective prediction, complex conditions and uncertain elements must be considered, which necessitates stochastic prediction. In particular, a large amount of uncertainty lies in identifying whether abnormal phenomena are precursors to large earthquakes, as well as in assigning urgency to the earthquake. Any discovery of potentially useful information for earthquake prediction is incomplete unless quantitative modeling of risk is considered. Therefore, this manuscript describes the prospect of earthquake predictability research to realize practical operational forecasting in the near future.
If earthquakes are phenomena of self-organized criticality (SOC), statistical characteristics of the earthquake time series should be invariant after the sequence of events in an earthquake catalog are randomly rearranged. In this Letter we argue that earthquakes are unlikely phenomena of SOC because our analysis of the Southern California Earthquake Catalog shows that the first-return-time probability PM(T) is apparently changed after the time series is rearranged. This suggests that the SOC theory should not be used to oppose the efforts of earthquake prediction
Full Text Available A series of multimedia monographs concerning the main seismic events that have affected the Italian territory are in the process of being produced for the Documental Integrated Multimedia Project (DIMP started by the Italian National Seismic Survey (NSS. The purpose of the project is to reconstruct the historical record of earthquakes and promote an earthquake public education. Producing the monographs. developed in ARC INFO and working in UNIX. involved designing a special filing and management methodology to integrate heterogeneous information (images, papers, cartographies, etc.. This paper describes the possibilities of a GIS (Geographic Information System in the filing and management of documental information. As an example we present the first monograph on the 1883 Casamicciola earthquake. on the island of Ischia (Campania, Italy. This earthquake is particularly interesting for the following reasons: I historical-cultural context (first destructive seismic event after the unification of Italy; 2 its features (volcanic earthquake; 3 the socioeconomic consequences caused at such an important seaside resort.
Nakano, Shuhei; Hirata, Yoshito; Iwayama, Koji; Aihara, Kazuyuki
Although an economy is influenced by a natural disaster, the market response to the disaster during the first 24 hours is not clearly understood. Here we show that an earthquake quickly causes temporal changes in a foreign exchange market by examining the case of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Recurrence plots and statistical change point detection independently show that the United States dollar-Japanese yen market responded to the earthquake activity without delay and with the delay of about 2 minutes, respectively. These findings support that the efficient market hypothesis nearly holds now in the time scale of minutes.
Ata, Nihal; Kadilar, Gamze Özel
Failure time models assume that all units are subject to same risks embodied in the hazard functions. In this paper, unobserved sources of heterogeneity that are not captured by covariates are included into the failure time models. Destructive earthquakes in Turkey since 1900 are used to illustrate the models and inter-event time between two consecutive earthquakes are defined as the failure time. The paper demonstrates how seismicity and tectonics/physics parameters that can potentially influence the spatio-temporal variability of earthquakes and presents several advantages compared to more traditional approaches.
Michael, Andrew J.
Earthquake Quartet #1, my composition for voice, trombone, cello, and seismograms, is the intersection of listening to earthquakes as a seismologist and performing music as a trombonist. Along the way, I realized there is a close relationship between what I do as a scientist and what I do as a musician. A musician controls the source of the sound and the path it travels through their instrument in order to make sound waves that we hear as music. An earthquake is the source of waves that travel along a path through the earth until reaching us as shaking. It is almost as if the earth is a musician and people, including seismologists, are metaphorically listening and trying to understand what the music means.
Different hypotheses on the nature of seismotectonic processes in Vrancea seismogenic region inside Pannonian basin are investigated via a statistical study of properties of earthquake sequences. Vrancea seismogenic region produces large destructive earthquakes with intermediate depth of focus which may seriously affect vulnerable constructions such as nuclear power plants, chemical plants, large dams, pipelines, etc. on a wide territory of Central Europe up to Moscow City. The nature of intermediate depth earthquakes has attracted increased attention recently of the part of seismologists in an attempt to find out the adequate source mechanism which would produce wave forms in the far field similar to the normal earthquakes despite of radical difference in their confining pressure, temperature, physical and chemical composition of minerals in rupture zone. The properties under study are the following: positive and negative influence of large initial earthquakes on the intensity flow of successive seismic events, their relation to seismic cycle concept and velocity and Q-factor structure of the region. The method of investigation is the so called local statistics technique. For a better understanding of possible mechanisms of positive and negative interaction between earthquakes in Vrancea region similar local statistics are calculated for the flow of events in mathematical model of this region. The lithosphere structure is considered in the model as absolutely rigid 3-D blocks, separated by infinitely thin layers of visco-elastic material. The external forces (tectonic and gravitational) deform the system with a finite velocity of accumulation of stress in inter-blocks media. Accumulated stress is released completely when it reaches critical value at some cell of the discrete grid covering all boundaries between blocks. Immediately afterwards the neighbour boundary areas are a subject of stress redistribution according to laws of static. 11 refs, 11 tabs
Hayashi, Y.; Aci, M.
Many destructive earthquakes occurred during the last decade in Indonesia. These experiences are very important precepts for the world people who live in earthquake and tsunami countries. We are collecting the testimonies of tsunami survivors to clarify successful evacuation process and to make clear the characteristic physical behaviors of tsunami near coast. We research 2 tsunami events, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2010 Mentawai slow earthquake tsunami. Many video and photographs were taken by people at some places in 2004 Indian ocean tsunami disaster; nevertheless these were few restricted points. We didn't know the tsunami behavior in another place. In this study, we tried to collect extensive information about tsunami behavior not only in many places but also wide time range after the strong shake. In Mentawai case, the earthquake occurred in night, so there are no impressive photos. To collect detail information about evacuation process from tsunamis, we contrived the interview method. This method contains making pictures of tsunami experience from the scene of victims' stories. In 2004 Aceh case, all survivors didn't know tsunami phenomena. Because there were no big earthquakes with tsunami for one hundred years in Sumatra region, public people had no knowledge about tsunami. This situation was highly improved in 2010 Mentawai case. TV programs and NGO or governmental public education programs about tsunami evacuation are widespread in Indonesia. Many people know about fundamental knowledge of earthquake and tsunami disasters. We made drill book based on victim's stories and painted impressive scene of 2 events. We used the drill book in disaster education event in school committee of west Java. About 80 % students and teachers evaluated that the contents of the drill book are useful for correct understanding.
Earthquake, explosion, and a nuclear test data are compared with forward modeling and band-pass filtered surface wave amplitude data for exploring methodologies to improve earthquake-explosion discrimination. The proposed discrimination method is based on the solutions of a double integral transformation in the wavenumber and frequency domains. Recorded explosion data on June 26, 2001 (39.212°N, 125.383°E) and October 30, 2001 (38.748°N, 125.267°E), a nuclear test on October 9, 2006 (41.275°N, 129.095°E), and two earthquakes on April 14, 2002 (39.207°N, 125.686°E) and June 7, 2002 (38.703°N, 125.638°E), all in North Korea, are used to discriminate between explosions and earthquakes by seismic wave analysis and numerical modeling. The explosion signal is characterized by first P waves with higher energy than that of S waves. Rg waves are clearly dominant at 0.05-0.5 Hz in the explosion data but not in the earthquake data. This feature is attributed to the dominant P waves in the explosion and their coupling with the SH components.
Bekins, Barbara A.
It is really nice to see assembled in one place a discussion of the documented and hypothesized hydrologic effects of earthquakes. The book is divided into chapters focusing on particular hydrologic phenomena including liquefaction, mud volcanism, stream discharge increases, groundwater level, temperature and chemical changes, and geyser period changes. These hydrologic effects are inherently fascinating, and the large number of relevant publications in the past decade makes this summary a useful milepost. The book also covers hydrologic precursors and earthquake triggering by pore pressure. A natural need to limit the topics covered resulted in the omission of tsunamis and the vast literature on the role of fluids and pore pressure in frictional strength of faults. Regardless of whether research on earthquake-triggered hydrologic effects ultimately provides insight into the physics of earthquakes, the text provides welcome common ground for interdisciplinary collaborations between hydrologists and seismologists. Such collaborations continue to be crucial for investigating hypotheses about the role of fluids in earthquakes and slow slip.
WANG Bin; CHEN Ya-Zheng; LI Xue-Qian
We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. An- tineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomog- raphy of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for ν emitted from a reactor. The case for a ν beam from a neutrino factory is also investigated, and it is noted that, because of the typically high energy associated with such neutrinos, the oscillation length is too large and the resultant variation is not practically observable. Our conclusion is that with the present reactor facilities and detection techniques, it is still a difficult task to make an earthquake forecast using such a scheme, though it seems to be possible from a theoretical point of view while ignoring some uncertainties. However, with the development of the geology, especially the knowledge about the fault zone, and with the improvement of the detection techniques, etc., there is hope that a medium-term earthquake forecast would be feasible.
We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti) neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for (anti nu)e emitted from a reactor. The case for a νe beam from a neutrino factory is also investigated, and it is noted that, because of the typically high energy associated with such neutrinos, the oscillation length is too large and the resultant variation is not practically observable. Our conclusion is that with the present reactor facilities and detection techniques, it is still a difficult task to make an earthquake forecast using such a scheme, though it seems to be possible from a theoretical point of view while ignoring some uncertainties. However, with the development of the geology, especially the knowledge about the fault zone, and with the improvement of the detection techniques, etc., there is hope that a medium-term earthquake forecast would be feasible. (authors)
Adushkin, V. V.
The enhancement of seismicity induced by industrial activity in Russia in the conditions of present-day anthropization is noted. In particular, the growth in the intensity and number of strong tectonic earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 3 (seismic energy 109 J) due to human activity is revealed. These man-made tectonic earthquakes have started to occur in the regions of the East European Platform which were previously aseismic. The development of such seismicity is noted in the areas of intense long-term mineral extraction due to the increasing production depth and extended mining and production. The mechanisms and generation conditions of man-made tectonic earthquakes in the anthropogenically disturbed medium with the changed geodynamical and fluid regime is discussed. The source zones of these shallow-focus tectonic earthquakes of anthropogenic origin are formed in the setting of stress state rearrangement under anthropogenic loading both near these zones and at a significant distance from them. This distance is determined by the tectonic structure of the rock mass and the character of its energy saturation, in particular, by the level of the formation pressure or pore pressure. These earthquakes occur at any time of the day, have a triggered character, and are frequently accompanied by catastrophic phenomena in the underground mines and on the surface due to the closeness to the source zones.
This paper examines the use of social media after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Based on media system dependency theory, the study focuses on the ways in which people used different types of social media to cope with a highly ambiguous situation created by the earthquake. A survey of Japanese university students revealed that the respondents used different forms of social media with different goals. Moreover, use of a particular social media type influenced the relative importance of ...
The aftershock sequence of the devastating Japan earthquake of March 2011 is analyzed for the presence of periodicities at the Earth tide periods. We use spectral analysis as well as a time-domain method KORRECT developed earlier to detect presence of diurnal and semi-diurnal periodicities in the sequence of aftershocks (M \\geq 4). This suggests that large aftershocks in the fault zone of the Japan 2011 earthquake were strongly influenced by Earth tides.
Liu Jie; Guo Tieshuan; Yang Liming; Su Youjin; Li Gang
The reason for the failure to forecast the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake is under study, based on the systematically collection of the seismicity anomalies and their analysis results from annual earthquake tendency forecasts between the 2001 Western Kuulun Mountains Pass Ms8.1 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The results show that the earthquake tendency estimation of Chinese Mainland is for strong earthquakes to occur in the active stage, and that there is still potential for the occurrence of a Ms8.0 large earthquake in Chinese Mainland after the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass earthquake. However the phenomena that many large earthquakes occurred around Chinese Mainland, and the 6-year long quietude of Ms7.0 earthquake and an obvious quietude of Ms5.0 and Ms6.0 earthquakes during 2002 ～2007 led to the distinctly lower forecast estimation of earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after 2006. The middle part in the north-south seismic belt has been designated a seismic risk area of strong earthquake in recent years, but, the estimation of the risk degree in Southwestern China is insufficient after the Ning'er Ms6.4 earthquake in Yunnan in 2007. There are no records of earthquakes with Ms≥7.0 in the Longmenshan fault, which is one of reasons that this fault was not considered a seismic risk area of strong earthquakes in recent years.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — There have been many earthquake occurrences in central California. This set of slides shows earthquake damage from the following events: Livermore, 1980, Coalinga,...
林青; 曾军; 张涛; 马晶; 王重; 娄恺
Strong earthquake could cause a variety of secondary geological disasters, and severely damage ecological environment. After earthquake, the vulnerable and sensitive ecosystems are going through a series of vegetation restoration and soil succession. Of this, vegetation recovery was regarded as the core of reconstruction of ecological restoration. However, the current research mainly focused on the investigation, recovery and reconstruction of the ecosystem damage from a macro perspective. Research in regard to the relationship between vegetation and soil microbial was rarely reported. Fuyun earthquake fault zone is located in Fuyun county of Altay in Xinjiang, which was caused by a serious earthquake of 8 scales on August 11, 1931 and formed a 176 km long rift. It was one of the rare earthquake fault zones in the world. The aim of this study therefore was to investigate the effect of secondary plants on soil archaeal communities in the secondary barren of Fuyun seismic fault zone in Xinjiang. In a 300×30m range (collapse region was long and narrow) , 8 different plants were selected as dominant plant species after investigation. They were Salix vistita, Salix rectijulis, Eremopyrum orientate, Seriphidium nitrosum, Geranium sibiricum, Spiraea media, Galium verum and Rosa spinosissima. The rhizosphere soils collected from the 8 different plants were studied by testing soil chemical properties ( mainly include soil organic matter, pH, total nitrogen, available nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium) and soil archaeal community structures were surveyed by employing Terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP ). Unplanted soil in the same depth served as control. The results showed that the soil in study site was alkaline (pH = 8. 28-8. 51). The soil nutrient contents in Eremopyrum orientate's rhizosphere were generally higher compared with other plant. There were great differences in soil nutrient content among samples, but the overall
Full Text Available The active tectonics of the area of Greece and its seismic activity have always been present in the country?s history. Many researchers, tempted to work on Greek historical earthquakes, have realized that this is a task not easily fulfilled. The existing catalogues of strong historical earthquakes are useful tools to perform general SHA studies. However, a variety of supporting datasets, non-uniformly distributed in space and time, need to be further investigated. In the present paper, a review of historical earthquake studies in Greece is attempted. The seismic history of the country is divided into four main periods. In each one of them, characteristic examples, studies and approaches are presented.
D. J. Andrews
Full Text Available Earthquake mechanics may be determined by the geometry of a fault system. Slip on a fractal branching fault surface can explain: 1 regeneration of stress irregularities in an earthquake; 2 the concentration of stress drop in an earthquake into asperities; 3 starting and stopping of earthquake slip at fault junctions, and 4 self-similar scaling of earthquakes. Slip at fault junctions provides a natural realization of barrier and asperity models without appealing to variations of fault strength. Fault systems are observed to have a branching fractal structure, and slip may occur at many fault junctions in an earthquake. Consider the mechanics of slip at one fault junction. In order to avoid a stress singularity of order 1/r, an intersection of faults must be a triple junction and the Burgers vectors on the three fault segments at the junction must sum to zero. In other words, to lowest order the deformation consists of rigid block displacement, which ensures that the local stress due to the dislocations is zero. The elastic dislocation solution, however, ignores the fact that the configuration of the blocks changes at the scale of the displacement. A volume change occurs at the junction; either a void opens or intense local deformation is required to avoid material overlap. The volume change is proportional to the product of the slip increment and the total slip since the formation of the junction. Energy absorbed at the junction, equal to confining pressure times the volume change, is not large enongh to prevent slip at a new junction. The ratio of energy absorbed at a new junction to elastic energy released in an earthquake is no larger than P/µ where P is confining pressure and µ is the shear modulus. At a depth of 10 km this dimensionless ratio has th value P/µ= 0.01. As slip accumulates at a fault junction in a number of earthquakes, the fault segments are displaced such that they no longer meet at a single point. For this reason the
Earthquakes and volcanoes are caused by: 1)Various liquid elements (e.g. H20, H2S, S02) which emerge from the pyrosphere and are trapped in the space between the solid crust and the pyrosphere (Moho discontinuity). 2)Protrusions of the solid crust at the Moho discontinuity (mountain range roots, sinking of the lithosphere's plates). 3)The differential movement of crust and pyrosphere. The crust misses one full rotation for approximately every 100 pyrosphere rotations, mostly because of the lunar pull. The above mentioned elements can be found in small quantities all over the Moho discontinuity, and they are constantly causing minor earthquakes and small volcanic eruptions. When large quantities of these elements (H20, H2S, SO2, etc) concentrate, they are carried away by the pyrosphere, moving from west to east under the crust. When this movement takes place under flat surfaces of the solid crust, it does not cause earthquakes. But when these elements come along a protrusion (a mountain root) they concentrate on its western side, displacing the pyrosphere until they fill the space created. Due to the differential movement of pyrosphere and solid crust, a vacuum is created on the eastern side of these protrusions and when the aforementioned liquids overfill this space, they explode, escaping to the east. At the point of their escape, these liquids are vaporized and compressed, their flow accelerates, their temperature rises due to fluid friction and they are ionized. On the Earth's surface, a powerful rumbling sound and electrical discharges in the atmosphere, caused by the movement of the gasses, are noticeable. When these elements escape, the space on the west side of the protrusion is violently taken up by the pyrosphere, which collides with the protrusion, causing a major earthquake, attenuation of the protrusions, cracks on the solid crust and damages to structures on the Earth's surface. It is easy to foresee when an earthquake will occur and how big it is
张东宁; 张国民; 张培震
Two key research projects in geoscience field in China since the IUGG meeting in Birmingham in 1999, the project of "East Asian Continental Geodynamics" and the project of "Mechanism and Prediction of Strong Continental Earthquakes" are introduced in this paper. Some details of two projects, such as their sub-projects, some initial research results published are also given here. Because of the large magnitude of the November 14, 2001 Kunlun Mountain Pass MS=8.1 earthquake, in the third part of this paper, some initial research results are reviewed for the after-shock monitoring and the multi-discipline field survey, the impact and disaster of this earthquake on the construction site of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) railway and some other infrastructure.
Earthquakes and volcanoes are caused by: 1) Various liquid elements (e.g. H20, H2S, S02) which emerge from the pyrosphere and are trapped in the space between the solid crust and the pyrosphere (Moho discontinuity). 2) Protrusions of the solid crust at the Moho discontinuity (mountain range roots, sinking of the lithosphere's plates). 3) The differential movement of crust and pyrosphere. The crust misses one full rotation for approximately every 100 pyrosphere rotations, mostly because of the lunar pull. The above mentioned elements can be found in small quantities all over the Moho discontinuity, and they are constantly causing minor earthquakes and small volcanic eruptions. When large quantities of these elements (H20, H2S, SO2, etc) concentrate, they are carried away by the pyrosphere, moving from west to east under the crust. When this movement takes place under flat surfaces of the solid crust, it does not cause earthquakes. But when these elements come along a protrusion (a mountain root) they concentrate on its western side, displacing the pyrosphere until they fill the space created. Due to the differential movement of pyrosphere and solid crust, a vacuum is created on the eastern side of these protrusions and when the aforementioned liquids overfill this space, they explode, escaping to the east. At the point of their escape, these liquids are vaporized and compressed, their flow accelerates, their temperature rises due to fluid friction and they are ionized. On the Earth's surface, a powerful rumbling sound and electrical discharges in the atmosphere, caused by the movement of the gasses, are noticeable. When these elements escape, the space on the west side of the protrusion is violently taken up by the pyrosphere, which collides with the protrusion, causing a major earthquake, attenuation of the protrusions, cracks on the solid crust and damages to structures on the Earth's surface. It is easy to foresee when an earthquake will occur and how big it is
Molly K. SCHNELL; David E. Weinstein
This paper compares the 1995 Kobe earthquake with the more recent one in Tohoku. The impact of the recent earthquake on industrial production was much larger and long-lasting than that of the 1995 earthquake. We find that very little of this can be explained by differences in government expenditures or private consumption. However, we find very substantial differences in energy production in the wake of the two earthquakes. The substantial and persistent drop in energy output is likely to hav...
Full Text Available lot of people have died because of earthquakes every year. Therefore It is crucial to predict the time of the earthquakes reasonable time before it had happed. This paper presents recent information published in the literature about precursors of earthquakes. The relationships between earthquakes and ionosphere are targeted to guide new researches in order to study further to find novel prediction methods.
Full Text Available Earthquake geology studies the effects, the mechanics and the impacts of earthquakes in the geological environment. Its role is also to decode the fault history, therefore its approach is fault specific and its outcomes are of decisive value for seismic hazard assessment and planning. The term Earthquake geology includes aspects of modern instrumental studies, tectonics and structural geology, historical surface deformation and tectonic geomorphology, whereas paleoseismology is considered part of earthquake geology [...].
... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...
Full Text Available Low power consumption long time offset magnetic field detector (earthquake prediction .The design of the hardware circuit of the magnetic field detector seismic geomagnetic acquisition and pre processing module mainly includes. Electronic compass, compass. monitoring device while the magnetic azimuth for monitoring and analyzing the object, GSM, but it can also be applied to other seismic precursor information analysis, such as earthquake precursory infrasound abnormality, only need infrasound abnormality intelligent sensor replace geomagnetic anomaly intelligent sensor, and modify the relevant parameters can be.
de Groot, R.; Abbott, P.; Benthien, M.
Since 2001, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has collaborated on several video production projects that feature important topics related to earthquake science, engineering, and preparedness. These projects have also fostered many fruitful and sustained partnerships with a variety of organizations that have a stake in hazard education and preparedness. The Seismic Sleuths educational video first appeared in the spring season 2001 on Discovery Channel's Assignment Discovery. Seismic Sleuths is based on a highly successful curriculum package developed jointly by the American Geophysical Union and The Department of Homeland Security Federal Emergency Management Agency. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) and the Institute for Business and Home Safety supported the video project. Summer Productions, a company with a reputation for quality science programming, produced the Seismic Sleuths program in close partnership with scientists, engineers, and preparedness experts. The program has aired on the National Geographic Channel as recently as Fall 2004. Currently, SCEC is collaborating with Pat Abbott, a geology professor at San Diego State University (SDSU) on the video project Written In Stone: Earthquake Country - Los Angeles. Partners on this project include the California Seismic Safety Commission, SDSU, SCEC, CEA, and the Insurance Information Network of California. This video incorporates live-action demonstrations, vivid animations, and a compelling host (Abbott) to tell the story about earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The Written in Stone team has also developed a comprehensive educator package that includes the video, maps, lesson plans, and other supporting materials. We will present the process that facilitates the creation of visually effective, factually accurate, and entertaining video programs. We acknowledge the need to have a broad understanding of the literature related to communication, media studies, science education, and
Devlin, S.; Isacks, B. L.
The distribution of earthquake depths within the continental crust defines the seismogenic thickness (TS), over which at least some part of crustal deformation is accommodated by rapid release of stored elastic strains. Intraplate continental seismicity is often thought to be restricted to the upper crust where TS is within the range of 15 to 20 km. This appears consistent with a lithospheric strength profile involving a weak, ductile lower crust located beneath a stronger, brittle upper crust. With the assumption of a strong uppermost mantle lid, this is often referred to the Jelly Sandwich model of lithosphere rheology. Studies in many places, however, document lower crustal earthquakes beneath continents in apparent disagreement with the model. We explore this and related issues through a survey of where and in what tectonic settings deep intraplate earthquakes are well documented in the continental crust. TS reaches Moho depth in many intraplate regions \\--- Sierra Nevada, Colorado Plateau, East African and Baikal Rift Systems, North Island New Zealand, Tien Shan, and the Andean and Alpine forelands. A review of possible deformation mechanisms which could control continental earthquake depth and facilitate seismicity beneath the brittle-ductile transition suggests that the influence of fluids is the only mechanism capable of encouraging earthquake occurrence throughout the continental crust at any tectonic setting. Surface derived fluids can induce pore fluid pressure changes to depths of 25 km and melt-reactions can induce earthquakes at depths throughout continental crust. On a global scale, fluid-enhanced embrittlement is not limited by depth or tectonic environment. We find that deep crustal earthquakes occur where the lithosphere is in a transitional state between primarily stable (e.g., shields) and highly deformed (e.g., U.S. Basin and Range or Southern California). Observations of relative intensity of tectonic deformation and regional percent strain
Wang, Zifa; Lin, Tun; Walker, George
The year 2008 witnessed the renewed interests in earthquake risk management and insurance in the People's Republic of China (PRC), after the Wenchuan earthquake hit the country in May. Located along the southeastern edge of the Euro-Asian Plate, the PRC has a relatively high seismicity, which is manifested by the frequent occurrence of large and disastrous earthquakes. Buildings and infrastructure in the earthquake-prone regions of the PRC have relatively low earthquake resistance levels. Hen...
The Canterbury earthquake, which struck New Zealand on February 22nd, 2011 took 186 lives. Of this number, 28 were Japanese overseas students. Looking simply at the number of casualties, this may appear to have been a minor earthquake which seems incomparable with respect to other major earthquakes. However, this was one of the most violent and costly earthquakes recorded in recent years. This was also major one in a regional context. The situation was grave: this earthquake caused the collap...