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Sample records for activity predict variation

  1. Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

    Shepherd, Simon J. [School of Engineering, University of Bradford, Bradford, BD7 1DP (United Kingdom); Zharkov, Sergei I. [Department of Physics and Mathematics, University of Hull, Kingston upon Tyne, HU6 7RS (United Kingdom); Zharkova, Valentina V., E-mail: s.j.shepherd@brad.ac.uk, E-mail: s.zharkov@hull.ac.uk, E-mail: valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk [Department of Mathematics and Information Systems, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE2 8ST (United Kingdom)

    2014-11-01

    A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

  2. Genetic variation in the proximal promoter of ABC and SLC superfamilies: liver and kidney specific expression and promoter activity predict variation.

    Stephanie E Hesselson

    Full Text Available Membrane transporters play crucial roles in the cellular uptake and efflux of an array of small molecules including nutrients, environmental toxins, and many clinically used drugs. We hypothesized that common genetic variation in the proximal promoter regions of transporter genes contribute to observed variation in drug response. A total of 579 polymorphisms were identified in the proximal promoters (-250 to +50 bp and flanking 5' sequence of 107 transporters in the ATP Binding Cassette (ABC and Solute Carrier (SLC superfamilies in 272 DNA samples from ethnically diverse populations. Many transporter promoters contained multiple common polymorphisms. Using a sliding window analysis, we observed that, on average, nucleotide diversity (pi was lowest at approximately 300 bp upstream of the transcription start site, suggesting that this region may harbor important functional elements. The proximal promoters of transporters that were highly expressed in the liver had greater nucleotide diversity than those that were highly expressed in the kidney consistent with greater negative selective pressure on the promoters of kidney transporters. Twenty-one promoters were evaluated for activity using reporter assays. Greater nucleotide diversity was observed in promoters with strong activity compared to promoters with weak activity, suggesting that weak promoters are under more negative selective pressure than promoters with high activity. Collectively, these results suggest that the proximal promoter region of membrane transporters is rich in variation and that variants in these regions may play a role in interindividual variation in drug disposition and response.

  3. Prediction of interannual climate variations

    It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction. (orig./KW)

  4. Predicting geomagnetic activity indices

    Complete text of publication follows. Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Lagrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp and Dst forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor.) Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that, while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Similar Dst models were developed. Information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  5. Predicting global variation in infectious disease severity

    Jensen, Per M.; De Fine Licht, Henrik H.

    2016-01-01

    Background and objectives: Understanding the underlying causes for the variation in case-fatality-ratios (CFR) is important for assessing the mechanism governing global disparity in the burden of infectious diseases. Variation in CFR is likely to be driven by factors such as population genetics, demography, transmission patterns and general health status. We present data here that support the hypothsis that changes in CFRs for specific diseases may be the result of serial passage through different hosts. For example passage through adults may lead to lower CFR, whereas passage through children may have the opposite effect. Accordingly changes in CFR may occur in parallel with demographic transitions. Methodology: We explored the predictability of CFR using data obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) disease databases for four human diseases: mumps, malaria, tuberculosis and leptospirosis and assessed these for association with a range of population characteristics, such as crude birth and death rates, median age of the population, mean body mass index, proportion living in urban areas and tuberculosis vaccine coverage. We then tested this predictive model on Danish historical demographic and population data. Results: Birth rates were the best predictor for mumps and malaria CFR. For tuberculosis CFR death rates were the best predictor and for leptospirosis population density was a significant predictor. Conclusions and implications: CFR predictors differed among diseases according to their biology. We suggest that the overall result reflects an interaction between the forces driving demographic change and the virulence of human-to-human transmitted diseases. PMID:26884415

  6. Predicting global variation in infectious disease severity

    Jensen, Per Moestrup; de Fine Licht, Henrik Hjarvard

    2016-01-01

    Background and objectives: Understanding the underlying causes for the variation in case-fatality-ratios (CFR) is important for assessing the mechanism governing global disparity in the burden of infectious diseases. Variation in CFR is likely to be driven by factors such as population genetics...

  7. Predicting facial characteristics from complex polygenic variations

    Fagertun, Jens; Wolffhechel, Karin Marie Brandt; Pers, Tune;

    2015-01-01

    traits in a linear regression. We show in this proof-of-concept study for facial trait prediction from genome-wide SNP data that some facial characteristics can be modeled by genetic information: facial width, eyebrow width, distance between eyes, and features involving mouth shape are predicted with...

  8. Genotypic richness predicts phenotypic variation in an endangered clonal plant

    Sinclair, Elizabeth A.; Poore, Alistair G.B.; Bain, Keryn F.; Vergés, Adriana

    2016-01-01

    Declines in genetic diversity within a species can affect the stability and functioning of populations. The conservation of genetic diversity is thus a priority, especially for threatened or endangered species. The importance of genetic variation, however, is dependent on the degree to which it translates into phenotypic variation for traits that affect individual performance and ecological processes. This is especially important for predominantly clonal species, as no single clone is likely to maximise all aspects of performance. Here we show that intraspecific genotypic diversity as measured using microsatellites is a strong predictor of phenotypic variation in morphological traits and shoot productivity of the threatened, predominantly clonal seagrass Posidonia australis, on the east coast of Australia. Biomass and surface area variation was most strongly predicted by genotypic richness, while variation in leaf chemistry (phenolics and nitrogen) was unrelated to genotypic richness. Genotypic richness did not predict tissue loss to herbivores or epiphyte load, however we did find that increased herbivore damage was positively correlated with allelic richness. Although there was no clear relationship between higher primary productivity and genotypic richness, variation in shoot productivity within a meadow was significantly greater in more genotypically diverse meadows. The proportion of phenotypic variation explained by environmental conditions varied among different genotypes, and there was generally no variation in phenotypic traits among genotypes present in the same meadows. Our results show that genotypic richness as measured through the use of presumably neutral DNA markers does covary with phenotypic variation in functionally relevant traits such as leaf morphology and shoot productivity. The remarkably long lifespan of individual Posidonia plants suggests that plasticity within genotypes has played an important role in the longevity of the species

  9. Genotypic richness predicts phenotypic variation in an endangered clonal plant.

    Evans, Suzanna M; Sinclair, Elizabeth A; Poore, Alistair G B; Bain, Keryn F; Vergés, Adriana

    2016-01-01

    Declines in genetic diversity within a species can affect the stability and functioning of populations. The conservation of genetic diversity is thus a priority, especially for threatened or endangered species. The importance of genetic variation, however, is dependent on the degree to which it translates into phenotypic variation for traits that affect individual performance and ecological processes. This is especially important for predominantly clonal species, as no single clone is likely to maximise all aspects of performance. Here we show that intraspecific genotypic diversity as measured using microsatellites is a strong predictor of phenotypic variation in morphological traits and shoot productivity of the threatened, predominantly clonal seagrass Posidonia australis, on the east coast of Australia. Biomass and surface area variation was most strongly predicted by genotypic richness, while variation in leaf chemistry (phenolics and nitrogen) was unrelated to genotypic richness. Genotypic richness did not predict tissue loss to herbivores or epiphyte load, however we did find that increased herbivore damage was positively correlated with allelic richness. Although there was no clear relationship between higher primary productivity and genotypic richness, variation in shoot productivity within a meadow was significantly greater in more genotypically diverse meadows. The proportion of phenotypic variation explained by environmental conditions varied among different genotypes, and there was generally no variation in phenotypic traits among genotypes present in the same meadows. Our results show that genotypic richness as measured through the use of presumably neutral DNA markers does covary with phenotypic variation in functionally relevant traits such as leaf morphology and shoot productivity. The remarkably long lifespan of individual Posidonia plants suggests that plasticity within genotypes has played an important role in the longevity of the species

  10. Predicting individual variation in language from infant speech perception measures

    Cristia, A.; Seidl, A; Junge, C.; Soderstrom, M.; Hagoort, P.

    2014-01-01

    There are increasing reports that individual variation in behavioral and neurophysiological measures of infant speech processing predicts later language outcomes, and specifically concurrent or subsequent vocabulary size. If such findings are held up under scrutiny, they could both illuminate theoretical models of language development and contribute to the prediction of communicative disorders. A qualitative, systematic review of this emergent literature illustrated the variety of approaches ...

  11. A simple physical model predicts small exon length variations.

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the most common splice variations are small exon length variations caused by the use of alternative donor or acceptor splice sites that are in very close proximity on the pre-mRNA. Among these, three-nucleotide variations at so-called NAGNAG tandem acceptor sites have recently attracted considerable attention, and it has been suggested that these variations are regulated and serve to fine-tune protein forms by the addition or removal of a single amino acid. In this paper we first show that in-frame exon length variations are generally overrepresented and that this overrepresentation can be quantitatively explained by the effect of nonsense-mediated decay. Our analysis allows us to estimate that about 50% of frame-shifted coding transcripts are targeted by nonsense-mediated decay. Second, we show that a simple physical model that assumes that the splicing machinery stochastically binds to nearby splice sites in proportion to the affinities of the sites correctly predicts the relative abundances of different small length variations at both boundaries. Finally, using the same simple physical model, we show that for NAGNAG sites, the difference in affinities of the neighboring sites for the splicing machinery accurately predicts whether splicing will occur only at the first site, splicing will occur only at the second site, or three-nucleotide splice variants are likely to occur. Our analysis thus suggests that small exon length variations are the result of stochastic binding of the spliceosome at neighboring splice sites. Small exon length variations occur when there are nearby alternative splice sites that have similar affinity for the splicing machinery.

  12. Thermal Phase Variations of WASP-12b: Defying Predictions

    Cowan, N B; Croll, B; Shekhtman, L M; Burrows, A; Deming, D; Greene, T; Hora, J L

    2011-01-01

    [Abridged] We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 micron. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously-measured day-side spectral energy distribution, is indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 micron, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 micron, but our parameter uncertainties -estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo- keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 micron, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's...

  13. Seasonal variation in leisure time physical activity.

    Uitenbroek, D G

    1993-06-01

    In this paper seasonal variation in leisure time physical activity for exercise is studied and quantified with regard to several popular exercise activities and taking the respondents gender, occupational status, and age into consideration. The analysis concerns data collected by telephone in Scotland between January 1989 and March 1992. Data from 7,202 male and 9,284 female respondents is used in the analysis; cosinor analysis using GLIM is applied. Considerable seasonal variation was found affecting both outdoor and indoor activities. During the peak phase in July, 32% of the respondents reported exercising for at least 20 min three or more times during the previous week, in the winter period this decreased to 23%. Older respondents were found to exercise more later in the year and also showed seasonal variation to a larger extent than younger respondents. This is particularly so for those respondents who exercise at a relatively high frequency. PMID:8321115

  14. Prediction of geomagnetic secular variation using data assimilation techniques

    Complete text of publication follows. An important part of geopotential research is to develop models of the time-varying geomagnetic field, not only for scientific use but for practical purposes. The IGRF is the most commonly used model of the field; a very important aspect of this model is the secular variation (SV) model, from which predictions of the field are calculated up to 5 years after the initial epoch. This predictive model is currently calculated from observations alone. Here we propose a new approach, assimilating geomagnetic observations to geodynamo models for SV prediction. Assimilation of measurements and numerical models has been widely used in atmospheric and oceanic studies to better estimate the true dynamical states and to predict more accurately the changes of the observables in future. Similar approaches could be very useful for geomagnetic field modeling, in particular prediction of geomagnetic secular variation (SV) on decadal time scales. We have developed a geomagnetic data assimilation system (MoSSTDAS) to combine geomagnetic field model output for the past 7000 years and our numerical core dynamics model to better constrain the (numerical) core state, and to predict geomagnetic field and secular variations up to 20 years. Our forecast is very accurate. For 5-year forecast, the correlation between the field morphologies at the core-mantle boundary is greater than 99.5% over the 20th century, while the correlation between SVs is larger than 95%. To examine the broad applicability, we are modifying the assimilation process to best emulate the standard practice (e.g. IGRF) in the geomagnetic community, and to benchmark our results with those documented and published in the past.

  15. Stress responsiveness predicts individual variation in mate selectivity.

    Vitousek, Maren N; Romero, L Michael

    2013-06-15

    Steroid hormones, including glucocorticoids, mediate a variety of behavioral and physiological processes. Circulating hormone concentrations vary substantially within populations, and although hormone titers predict reproductive success in several species, little is known about how individual variation in circulating hormone concentrations is linked with most reproductive behaviors in free-living organisms. Mate choice is an important and often costly component of reproduction that also varies substantially within populations. We examined whether energetically costly mate selection behavior in female Galápagos marine iguanas (Amblyrhynchus cristatus) was associated with individual variation in the concentrations of hormones previously shown to differ between reproductive and non-reproductive females during the breeding season (corticosterone and testosterone). Stress-induced corticosterone levels - which are suppressed in female marine iguanas during reproduction - were individually repeatable throughout the seven-week breeding period. Mate selectivity was strongly predicted by individual variation in stress-induced corticosterone: reproductive females that secreted less corticosterone in response to a standardized stressor assessed more displaying males. Neither baseline corticosterone nor testosterone predicted variation in mate selectivity. Scaled body mass was not significantly associated with mate selectivity, but females that began the breeding period in lower body condition showed a trend towards being less selective about potential mates. These results provide the first evidence that individual variation in the corticosterone stress response is associated with how selective females are in their choice of a mate, an important contributor to fitness in many species. Future research is needed to determine the functional basis of this association, and whether transient acute increases in circulating corticosterone directly mediate mate choice behaviors. PMID

  16. THERMAL PHASE VARIATIONS OF WASP-12b: DEFYING PREDICTIONS

    Cowan, Nicolas B.; Shekhtman, Louis M. [Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, 2131 Tech Dr, Evanston, IL 60208 (United States); Machalek, Pavel [SETI Institute, 189 Bernardo Ave., Suite 100, Mountain View, CA 94043 (United States); Croll, Bryce [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 George St., Toronto, ON, M5S 3H4 (Canada); Burrows, Adam [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 05844 (United States); Deming, Drake [Planetary Systems Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Greene, Tom [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Hora, Joseph L., E-mail: n-cowan@northwestern.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2012-03-01

    We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared-(R{sub p} /R{sub *}){sup 2} = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m, respectively-indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 {mu}m, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F{sub day}/F{sub *} = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 {mu}m, but our parameter uncertainties-estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo-keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 {mu}m, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 {mu}m ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 {mu}m transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 {mu}m depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 {mu}m eclipse depth

  17. THERMAL PHASE VARIATIONS OF WASP-12b: DEFYING PREDICTIONS

    We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 μm. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared—(Rp /R*)2 = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 μm, respectively—indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 μm, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: Fday/F* = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 μm, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 μm, but our parameter uncertainties—estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo—keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 μm, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 μm ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 μm transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 μm depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 μm eclipse depth, consistent with a solar composition and modest temperature

  18. VARIATIONS OF SOLAR ROTATION AND SUNSPOT ACTIVITY

    The continuous wavelet transformation is used to study the temporal variations of the rotational cycle length of daily sunspot numbers from 1849 January 1 to 2010 February 28, from a global point of view. The rotational cycle length of the Sun is found to have a secular trend, which statistically shows a linear decrease by about 0.47 days during the time interval considered. The empirical mode decomposition analysis of the temporal variations of the rotational cycle length shows an acceleration trend for the surface rotation rate from cycles 11 to 19, but a deceleration trend from the beginning of cycle 20 onward. We cannot determine whether the rotation rate around the maximum times of the Schwable cycles should be faster or slower than that around the minimum times, implying no Schwable cycle in the long-term variations of rotation. The results obtained are compared to those from the literature. It is inferred that the variation of the rotational cycle length may be related to the variation of sunspot activity in the long run.

  19. Long-term variations of solar activity

    2007-01-01

    Using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram we analyzed two sunspot series: the one over the past 11000 years at the 10-year interval based upon the survey data of 14C concentration in tree-rings, reconstructed by Solanki et al.; and the sunspot number over the past 7000 years, derived from geomagnetic variations by Usoskin et al. We found the periods and quasi-periods in solar activity, such as about 225, 352, 441, 522 and 561 a, and near 1000 and 2000 a. An approach of wavelet transform was applied to check the two sunspot time series, with emphasis on investigating time-varying characteristics in the long-term fluctuations of solar activity. The results show that the lengths and amplitudes of the periods have changed with time, and large variations have taken place during some periods.

  20. Predicting individual variation in language from infant speech perception measures.

    Cristia, Alejandrina; Seidl, Amanda; Junge, Caroline; Soderstrom, Melanie; Hagoort, Peter

    2014-01-01

    There are increasing reports that individual variation in behavioral and neurophysiological measures of infant speech processing predicts later language outcomes, and specifically concurrent or subsequent vocabulary size. If such findings are held up under scrutiny, they could both illuminate theoretical models of language development and contribute to the prediction of communicative disorders. A qualitative, systematic review of this emergent literature illustrated the variety of approaches that have been used and highlighted some conceptual problems regarding the measurements. A quantitative analysis of the same data established that the bivariate relation was significant, with correlations of similar strength to those found for well-established nonlinguistic predictors of language. Further exploration of infant speech perception predictors, particularly from a methodological perspective, is recommended. PMID:24320112

  1. Predicting Variations in Math Performancein Four Countries Using TIMSS

    Daniel Koretz

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available Although international comparisons of average student performance are a staple of U.S. educational debate, little attention has been paid to cross-national differences in the variability of performance. It is often assumed that the performance of U.S. students is unusually variable or that the distribution of U.S. scores is left-skewed – that is, that it has an unusually long ‘tail' of low-scoring students – but data from international studies are rarely brought to bear on these questions. This study used data from the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS to compare the variability of performance in the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Korea, and Japan; investigate how this performance variation is distributed within and between classrooms; and explore how well background variables predict performance at both levels. TIMSS shows that the U.S. is not anomalous in terms of the amount, distribution, or prediction of performance variation. Nonetheless, some striking differences appear between countries that are potentially important for both research and policy. In the U.S., Germany, Hong Kong, and Australia, between 42 and 47 percent of score variance was between classrooms. At the other extreme, Japan and Korea both had less than 10 percent of score variance between classrooms. Two-level models (student and classroom were used to explore the prediction of performance by social background variables in four of these countries (the U.S., Hong Kong, France, and Korea. The final models included only a few variables; TIMSS lacked some important background variables, such as income, and other variables were dropped either because of problems revealed by exploratory data analysis or because of a lack of significance in the models. In all four countries, these sparse models predicted most of the between-classroom score variance (from 59 to 94 percent but very little of the within-classroom variance. Korea was the only

  2. ATHENS SEASONAL VARIATION OF GROUND RESISTANCE PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    S. Anbazhagan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective in ground resistance is to attain the most minimal ground safety esteem conceivable that bodes well monetarily and physically. An application of artificial neural networks (ANN to presage and relegation has been growing rapidly due to sundry unique characteristics of ANN models. A decent forecast is able to capture the dubiousness associated with those ground resistance. A portion of the key instabilities are soil composition, moisture content, temperature, ground electrodes and spacing of the electrodes. Propelled by this need, this paper endeavors to develop a generalized regression neural network (GRNN to predict the ground resistance. The GRNN has a single design parameter and expeditious learning and efficacious modeling for nonlinear time series. The precision of the forecast is applied to the Athens seasonal variation of ground resistance that shows the efficacy of the proposed approach.

  3. Rare copy number deletions predict individual variation in intelligence.

    Ronald A Yeo

    Full Text Available Phenotypic variation in human intellectual functioning shows substantial heritability, as demonstrated by a long history of behavior genetic studies. Many recent molecular genetic studies have attempted to uncover specific genetic variations responsible for this heritability, but identified effects capture little variance and have proven difficult to replicate. The present study, motivated an interest in "mutation load" emerging from evolutionary perspectives, examined the importance of the number of rare (or infrequent copy number variations (CNVs, and the total number of base pairs included in such deletions, for psychometric intelligence. Genetic data was collected using the Illumina 1MDuoBeadChip Array from a sample of 202 adult individuals with alcohol dependence, and a subset of these (N = 77 had been administered the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI. After removing CNV outliers, the impact of rare genetic deletions on psychometric intelligence was investigated in 74 individuals. The total length of the rare deletions significantly and negatively predicted intelligence (r = -.30, p = .01. As prior studies have indicated greater heritability in individuals with relatively higher parental socioeconomic status (SES, we also examined the impact of ethnicity (Anglo/White vs. Other, as a proxy measure of SES; these groups did not differ on any genetic variable. This categorical variable significantly moderated the effect of length of deletions on intelligence, with larger effects being noted in the Anglo/White group. Overall, these results suggest that rare deletions (between 5% and 1% population frequency or less adversely affect intellectual functioning, and that pleotropic effects might partly account for the association of intelligence with health and mental health status. Significant limitations of this research, including issues of generalizability and CNV measurement, are discussed.

  4. Predictable patterns in planetary transit timing variations and transit duration variations due to exomoons

    Heller, René; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

    2016-01-01

    We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moons, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures if the drift of the moons' pericenters is sufficiently slow. We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or t...

  5. CREATING THE KULTUK POLYGON FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION: VARIATIONS OF (234U/238U AND 87SR/86SR IN GROUNDWATER FROM ACTIVE FAULTS AT THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE BAIKAL

    S. V. Rasskazov

    2015-12-01

    direction at 14°, which resulted in the synchronization of (234U/238U at these stations (Fig. 13. At the background of the chaotic state of the monitoring system of the Kultuk polygon, it is possible to distinguish sequential self‐organization phases from а to г as evidenced by the azimuthal synchronization of the stations. The spatial development of the recorded processes was represented the sequential seismogenic activation of the western termination of the Obruchev fault (Fig. 14. From the analyses of temporal variations of U concentrations (Fig. 15, we infer that the dynamics of uranium ingress into water was different at stations 9 and 8. In the initial monitoring stage, the background extremely high values of (234U/238U and concentrations of uranium were inconsistent at stations 9 and 8. Later on, at station 9, episodes of the high mobility of uranium from the deformation zone alternated with episodes of the high mobility of uranium from the oxidation zone. At station 8, in the period from 26 October 2012 to 04 July 2013, uranium impulses took place occasionally in the deformation zone, and a few were combined with earthquakes of class 9 or 10. From 07 August 2013, the above‐mentioned impulses were replaced by uranium impulses from the oxidation zone. At this stage, an anomalous ingress of uranium was recorded.Conclusion. To validate the system of monitoring stations in the Kultuk polygon for earthquake prediction, spatial variations of (234U/238U both in groundwater and surface water were studied. On sites of the tectonically stable areas, it was found that components of the surface runoff had admixtures of ground water components from the nearsurface water sources. On sites located at active faults, surface runoff components had admixtures of groundwater components from the deformation zone and oxidation zone. On sites located at active faults whereat permanent water streams lacked, the components from the deformation zone contained admixture of near

  6. Predictable patterns in planetary transit timing variations and transit duration variations due to exomoons

    Heller, René; Hippke, Michael; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

    2016-06-01

    We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is sufficiently slow. We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio. We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10% moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

  7. Human activity recognition and prediction

    2016-01-01

    This book provides a unique view of human activity recognition, especially fine-grained human activity structure learning, human-interaction recognition, RGB-D data based action recognition, temporal decomposition, and causality learning in unconstrained human activity videos. The techniques discussed give readers tools that provide a significant improvement over existing methodologies of video content understanding by taking advantage of activity recognition. It links multiple popular research fields in computer vision, machine learning, human-centered computing, human-computer interaction, image classification, and pattern recognition. In addition, the book includes several key chapters covering multiple emerging topics in the field. Contributed by top experts and practitioners, the chapters present key topics from different angles and blend both methodology and application, composing a solid overview of the human activity recognition techniques. .

  8. Rare Copy Number Deletions Predict Individual Variation in Intelligence

    Yeo, Ronald A.; Gangestad, Steven W.; Liu, Jingyu; Calhoun, Vince D.; Kent E. Hutchison

    2011-01-01

    Phenotypic variation in human intellectual functioning shows substantial heritability, as demonstrated by a long history of behavior genetic studies. Many recent molecular genetic studies have attempted to uncover specific genetic variations responsible for this heritability, but identified effects capture little variance and have proven difficult to replicate. The present study, motivated an interest in “mutation load” emerging from evolutionary perspectives, examined the importance of the n...

  9. Spatial variation in water loss predicts terrestrial salamander distribution and population dynamics.

    Peterman, W E; Semlitsch, R D

    2014-10-01

    Many patterns observed in ecology, such as species richness, life history variation, habitat use, and distribution, have physiological underpinnings. For many ectothermic organisms, temperature relationships shape these patterns, but for terrestrial amphibians, water balance may supersede temperature as the most critical physiologically limiting factor. Many amphibian species have little resistance to water loss, which restricts them to moist microhabitats, and may significantly affect foraging, dispersal, and courtship. Using plaster models as surrogates for terrestrial plethodontid salamanders (Plethodon albagula), we measured water loss under ecologically relevant field conditions to estimate the duration of surface activity time across the landscape. Surface activity time was significantly affected by topography, solar exposure, canopy cover, maximum air temperature, and time since rain. Spatially, surface activity times were highest in ravine habitats and lowest on ridges. Surface activity time was a significant predictor of salamander abundance, as well as a predictor of successful recruitment; the probability of a juvenile salamander occupying an area with high surface activity time was two times greater than an area with limited predicted surface activity. Our results suggest that survival, recruitment, or both are demographic processes that are affected by water loss and the ability of salamanders to be surface-active. Results from our study extend our understanding of plethodontid salamander ecology, emphasize the limitations imposed by their unique physiology, and highlight the importance of water loss to spatial population dynamics. These findings are timely for understanding the effects that fluctuating temperature and moisture conditions predicted for future climates will have on plethodontid salamanders. PMID:25154754

  10. Activity Prediction: A Twitter-based Exploration

    Weerkamp, W.; Rijke, de, M.

    2012-01-01

    Social media platforms allow users to share their messages with everyone else. In microblogs, e.g., Twitter, people mostly report on what they did, they talk about current activities, and mention things they plan to do in the near future. In this paper, we propose the task of activity prediction, that is, trying to establish a set of activities that are likely to become popular at a later time. We perform a small-scale initial experiment, in which we try to predict popular activities for the ...

  11. K Variations and Anisotropy: Microstructure Effect and Numerical Predictions

    李旭东; 李华清

    2003-01-01

    Computer experiments were performed on simulated polycrystalline material samples that possess locally anisotropic microstructures to investigate stress intensity factor ( K ) variations and anisotropy along fronts of microcracks of different sizes. The anisotropic K , arising from inhomogeneous stresses in broken grains, was determined for planar microcracks by using a weight function-based numerical technique. It has been found that the grain-orientation-geometry-induced local anisotropy produces large variations in K along front of microcracks, when the crack size is of the order of few grain diameters. Synergetic effect of grain orientation and geometry of broken grains control K variations and evolution along the microcrack front. The K variations may diminish at large crack sizes, signifying a shift of K calculation to bulk stress dependence from local stress dependence. Local grain geometry and texture may lead to K anisotropy, producing unusually higher/lower K at a segment of the crack front. Either K variation or anisotropy cannot be ignored when assessing a microcrack.

  12. Predicting stretcher carriage: Investigating variations in bilateral carry tests.

    Beck, Ben; Middleton, Kane J; Carstairs, Greg L; Billing, Daniel C; Caldwell, Joanne N

    2016-07-01

    Carrying a casualty on a stretcher is a critical task within military and emergency service occupations. This study evaluated the impact of manipulating carry speed and the object type in bilateral carries on the ability to predict performance and reflect the physical and physiological requirements of a unilateral stretcher carry. We demonstrated that three task-related predictive tests; a jerry can carry performed at 4.5 km h(-1)or 5.0 km h(-1) and a kettle-bell carry performed at 5.0 km h(-1) were strongly predictive of the physical and physiological demands of an individual participating as part of a four-person stretcher carry team. Therefore, bilateral predictive assessments have the utility for predicting the suitability of employees to effectively and safely conduct a four-person unilateral stretcher carry. PMID:26995042

  13. Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

    Escott-Price, Valentina; Sims, Rebecca; Bannister, Christian; Harold, Denise; Vronskaya, Maria; Majounie, Elisa; Badarinarayan, Nandini; Morgan, Kevin; Passmore, Peter; Holmes, Clive; Powell, John; Brayne, Carol; Gill, Michael; Mead, Simon; Goate, Alison; Cruchaga, Carlos; Lambert, Jean-Charles; van Duijn, Cornelia; Maier, Wolfgang; Ramirez, Alfredo; Holmans, Peter; Jones, Lesley; Hardy, John; Seshadri, Sudha; Schellenberg, Gerard D; Amouyel, Philippe; Williams, Julie

    2015-12-01

    The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer's disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer's disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer's disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer's disease (P = 4.9 × 10(-26)). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10(-19)). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77-80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer's disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer's disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes. PMID:26490334

  14. Evolutionary rate variation and RNA secondary structure prediction

    Knudsen, B; Andersen, E S; Damgaard, Christian Kroun;

    2004-01-01

    regions. In addition we obtained an alignment of the 5' HIV-1 region that is more consistent with the structure than that currently in the database. We added randomized noise to the original values of the rates to investigate the stability of predictions to rate matrix deviations. We find that changes...... by applying rates derived from tRNA and rRNA to the prediction of the much more rapidly evolving 5'-region of HIV-1. We find that the HIV-1 prediction is in agreement with experimental data, even though the relative evolutionary rate between A and G is significantly increased, both in stem and loop...... of approach. Determining these rates can be hard to do reliably without a large and accurate initial alignment, which ideally also has structural annotation. Hence, one must often apply rates extracted from other RNA families with trusted alignments and structures. Here, we investigate this problem...

  15. Prediction of Length-of-day Variations Based on Gaussian Processes

    Lei, Yu; Zhao, Dan-Ning; Gao, Yu-Ping; Cai, Hong-Bing

    2015-07-01

    Due to the complicated time-varying characteristics of the length-of-day (LOD) variations, the accuracies of traditional linear models for the prediction of the LOD variations, such as the least squares extrapolation model, the time-series analysis model and so on, cannot satisfy the requirements for the real-time and high-precision applications. In this paper, a new machine learning algorithm - the Gaussian process (GP) model is employed to forecast the LOD variations. Its prediction accuracy is analyzed and compared with those of the back propagation neural networks (BPNN), general regression neural networks (GRNN), and the Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC). The results demonstrate that the application of the GP model to the prediction of the LOD variations is efficient and feasible.

  16. Real-time rapid prediction of variations of Earth's rotational rate

    WANG QiJie; LIAO DeOhun; ZHOU YongHong

    2008-01-01

    Real-time rapid prediction of variations of the Earth's rotational rate is of great scientific and practical importance. However, due to the complicated time-variable characteristics of variations of the Earth's rotational rate (i.e., length of day, LOD), it is usually difficult to obtain satisfactory predictions by con-ventional linear time series analysis methods. This study employs the nonlinear artificial neural net-works (ANN) to predict the LOD variations. The topology of the ANN model is determined by minimizing the root mean square errors (RMSE) of the predictions. Considering the close relationships between the LOD variations and the atmospheric circulation movement, the operational prediction series of axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is incorporated into the ANN model as an additional input in the real-time rapid prediction of LOD variations with 1 -5 days ahead. The results show that the LOD pre-diction is significantly improved after introducing the operational prediction series of AAM into the ANN model.

  17. Prediction of fine-tuned promoter activity from DNA sequence

    Siwo, Geoffrey; Rider, Andrew; Tan, Asako; Pinapati, Richard; Emrich, Scott; Chawla, Nitesh; Ferdig, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The quantitative prediction of transcriptional activity of genes using promoter sequence is fundamental to the engineering of biological systems for industrial purposes and understanding the natural variation in gene expression. To catalyze the development of new algorithms for this purpose, the Dialogue on Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (DREAM) organized a community challenge seeking predictive models of promoter activity given normalized promoter activity data for 90 ribosomal protein promoters driving expression of a fluorescent reporter gene. By developing an unbiased modeling approach that performs an iterative search for predictive DNA sequence features using the frequencies of various k-mers, inferred DNA mechanical properties and spatial positions of promoter sequences, we achieved the best performer status in this challenge. The specific predictive features used in the model included the frequency of the nucleotide G, the length of polymeric tracts of T and TA, the frequencies of 6 distinct trinucleotides and 12 tetranucleotides, and the predicted protein deformability of the DNA sequence. Our method accurately predicted the activity of 20 natural variants of ribosomal protein promoters (Spearman correlation r = 0.73) as compared to 33 laboratory-mutated variants of the promoters (r = 0.57) in a test set that was hidden from participants. Notably, our model differed substantially from the rest in 2 main ways: i) it did not explicitly utilize transcription factor binding information implying that subtle DNA sequence features are highly associated with gene expression, and ii) it was entirely based on features extracted exclusively from the 100 bp region upstream from the translational start site demonstrating that this region encodes much of the overall promoter activity. The findings from this study have important implications for the engineering of predictable gene expression systems and the evolution of gene expression in naturally occurring

  18. Global water cycle and solar activity variations

    Al-Tameemi, Muthanna A.; Chukin, Vladimir V.

    2016-05-01

    The water cycle is the most active and most important component in the circulation of global mass and energy in the Earth system. Furthermore, water cycle parameters such as evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water vapour play a major role in global climate change. In this work, we attempt to determine the impact of solar activity on the global water cycle by analyzing the global monthly values of precipitable water vapour, precipitation, and the Solar Modulation Potential in 1983-2008. The first object of this study was to calculate global evaporation for the period 1983-2008. For this purpose, we determined the water cycle rate from satellite data, and precipitation/evaporation relationship from 10 years of Planet Simulator model data. The second object of our study was to investigate the relationship between the Solar Modulation Potential (solar activity index) and the evaporation for the period 1983-2008. The results showed that there is a relationship between the solar modulation potential and the evaporation values for the period of study. Therefore, we can assume that the solar activity has an impact on the global water cycle.

  19. Global genetic variations predict brain response to faces

    Dickie, Erin W; Tahmasebi, Amir; French, Leon;

    2014-01-01

    Face expressions are a rich source of social signals. Here we estimated the proportion of phenotypic variance in the brain response to facial expressions explained by common genetic variance captured by ∼ 500,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Using genomic-relationship-matrix restricted maximu...... of connections with other network nodes, suggesting that the genetic model captures variations across the adolescent brains in co-opting these regions into the face network.......Face expressions are a rich source of social signals. Here we estimated the proportion of phenotypic variance in the brain response to facial expressions explained by common genetic variance captured by ∼ 500,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Using genomic-relationship-matrix restricted maximum...... face network, as defined previously. In 9 out of these 25 regions, common genetic variance explained a significant proportion of phenotypic variance (40-50%) in their response to ambiguous facial expressions; this was not the case for angry facial expressions. Across the network, the strength of the...

  20. Nonlinear variational method for predicting fast collisionless magnetic reconnection

    Hirota, M; Ishii, Y; Yagi, M; Aiba, N

    2013-01-01

    A mechanism for fast magnetic reconnection in collisionless plasma is studied for understanding sawtooth collapse in tokamak discharges. Explosive growth of the tearing mode driven by electron inertia is analytically estimated by using an energy principle with a nonlinear displacement map. Decrease of the potential energy in the nonlinear regime (where the island width exceeds the electron skin depth) is found to be steeper than in the linear regime, resulting in accelerated reconnection. Release of free energy by such ideal fluid motion leads to unsteady and strong convective flow, which is not deterred by the small dissipation effects in high-temperature tokamak plasmas. Direct numerical simulation in slab geometry substantiates the theoretical prediction of the nonlinear growth.

  1. Possibilities of anthropogenic variations of thunderstorm activity

    The possibilities of anthropogenic modifications of thunderstorm activity are investigated. Different approaches were used to estimate the number of thunderstorms that could be modified by anthropogenic heat rejection. As a result it was found that about 50 percent of the thunderstorms occurring annually over the Swiss plateau or the area around the city of Basel offer the potential of an anthropogenic modification. On the basis of simplified physical models, the energy-flux to start a medium thunderstorm is estimated to be about 0.01 - 0.1 GW, if the energy is available as kinetic energy, and about 100 GW for thermal energy. Computer simulations with a parcel model confirm these orders of magnitude. The model calculations indicate also, that the power required to start a small thunderstorm under especially critical (unstable) weather situations can be an order of magnitude smaller than the above values. Comparing the required 100 GW thermal starting energy-flux with a single dry or wet 2 GW cooling tower suggests, that for climatic conditions typical for Switzerland, the formation of a thunderstorm due to cooling tower heat rejection is a very unlikely event. Power parks consisting of 30 - 50 dry cooling towers rejecting 2 GW each would be required to severely modify thunderstorm activity in their surroundings. About 5 to 10 cooling towers concentrated at one site would probably be a critical limit. When exceeded, modifications of thunderstorm activity seem to become climatologically significant. (Auth.)

  2. Application of Method of Variation to Analyze and Predict Human Induced Modifications of Water Resource Systems

    Dessu, S. B.; Melesse, A. M.; Mahadev, B.; McClain, M.

    2010-12-01

    Water resource systems have often used gravitational surface and subsurface flows because of their practicality in hydrological modeling and prediction. Activities such as inter/intra-basin water transfer, the use of small pumps and the construction of micro-ponds challenge the tradition of natural rivers as water resource management unit. On the contrary, precipitation is barely affected by topography and plot harvesting in wet regions can be more manageable than diverting from rivers. Therefore, it is indicative to attend to systems where precipitation drives the dynamics while the internal mechanics constitutes spectrum of human activity and decision in a network of plots. The trade-in volume and path of harvested precipitation depends on water balance, energy balance and the kinematics of supply and demand. Method of variation can be used to understand and predict the implication of local excess precipitation harvest and exchange on the natural water system. A system model was developed using the variational form of Euler-Bernoulli’s equation for the Kenyan Mara River basin. Satellite derived digital elevation models, precipitation estimates, and surface properties such as fractional impervious surface area, are used to estimate the available water resource. Four management conditions are imposed in the model: gravitational flow, open water extraction and high water use investment at upstream and downstream respectively. According to the model, the first management maintains the basin status quo while the open source management could induce externality. The high water market at the upstream in the third management offers more than 50% of the basin-wide total revenue to the upper third section of the basin thus may promote more harvesting. The open source and upstream exploitation suggest potential drop of water availability to downstream. The model exposed the latent potential of economic gradient to reconfigure the flow network along the direction where the

  3. Controlling cyclic combustion timing variations using a symbol-statistics predictive approach in an HCCI engine

    Highlights: ► Misfire reduction in a combustion engine based on chaotic theory methods. ► Chaotic theory analysis of cyclic variation of a HCCI engine near misfire. ► Symbol sequence approach is used to predict ignition timing one cycle-ahead. ► Prediction is combined with feedback control to lower HCCI combustion variation. ► Feedback control extends the HCCI operating range into the misfire region. -- Abstract: Cyclic variation of a Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) engine near misfire is analyzed using chaotic theory methods and feedback control is used to stabilize high cyclic variations. Variation of consecutive cycles of θPmax (the crank angle of maximum cylinder pressure over an engine cycle) for a Primary Reference Fuel engine is analyzed near misfire operation for five test points with similar conditions but different octane numbers. The return map of the time series of θPmax at each combustion cycle reveals the deterministic and random portions of the dynamics near misfire for this HCCI engine. A symbol-statistic approach is used to predict θPmax one cycle-ahead. Predicted θPmax has similar dynamical behavior to the experimental measurements. Based on this cycle ahead prediction, and using fuel octane as the input, feedback control is used to stabilize the instability of θPmax variations at this engine condition near misfire.

  4. Ionospheric Variations in the Region of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Crest: Comparison Between Observations and IRI-2012 Model Predictions.

    Oyeyemi, E. O.; Bolaji, S.; Adewale, A. O.; Akala, A. O.; Oladipo, O. A.; Olugbon, B.; Olawepo, O. A.; Adeniyi, J. O.; Adimula, I.

    2015-12-01

    The objective of this work is to study the variations of the F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) in the region of equatorial ionization anomaly crest and check the accuracy of International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2012) model predictions using ionosonde measurements from a number of stations in this region. We have used data, based on availability, corresponding to different seasonal and solar activity periods from each station considered to carry out our investigations. Details of the statistical analysis using percentage deviation (PD), upper and lower inter-quartile range (IQR) and relative deviation module mean (RDMM) for the evaluation of the IRI model performance are presented. The results show that, generally, the IRI model predictions have agreement with the observed values in terms of the pattern of variations but there are number of cases where IRI model overestimates and underestimates the observed values. Results from this study will be of help to improving prediction ability of the IRI models.

  5. On the level of skill in predicting maximum sunspot number - A comparative study of single variate and bivariate precursor techniques

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1990-01-01

    The level of skill in predicting the size of the sunspot cycle is investigated for the two types of precursor techniques, single variate and bivariate fits, both applied to cycle 22. The present level of growth in solar activity is compared to the mean level of growth (cycles 10-21) and to the predictions based on the precursor techniques. It is shown that, for cycle 22, both single variate methods (based on geomagnetic data) and bivariate methods suggest a maximum amplitude smaller than that observed for cycle 19, and possibly for cycle 21. Compared to the mean cycle, cycle 22 is presently behaving as if it were a +2.6 sigma cycle (maximum amplitude of about 225), which means that either it will be the first cycle not to be reliably predicted by the combined precursor techniques or its deviation relative to the mean cycle will substantially decrease over the next 18 months.

  6. Platelet serotonin transporter function predicts default-mode network activity.

    Christian Scharinger

    Full Text Available The serotonin transporter (5-HTT is abundantly expressed in humans by the serotonin transporter gene SLC6A4 and removes serotonin (5-HT from extracellular space. A blood-brain relationship between platelet and synaptosomal 5-HT reuptake has been suggested, but it is unknown today, if platelet 5-HT uptake can predict neural activation of human brain networks that are known to be under serotonergic influence.A functional magnetic resonance study was performed in 48 healthy subjects and maximal 5-HT uptake velocity (Vmax was assessed in blood platelets. We used a mixed-effects multilevel analysis technique (MEMA to test for linear relationships between whole-brain, blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD activity and platelet Vmax.The present study demonstrates that increases in platelet Vmax significantly predict default-mode network (DMN suppression in healthy subjects independent of genetic variation within SLC6A4. Furthermore, functional connectivity analyses indicate that platelet Vmax is related to global DMN activation and not intrinsic DMN connectivity.This study provides evidence that platelet Vmax predicts global DMN activation changes in healthy subjects. Given previous reports on platelet-synaptosomal Vmax coupling, results further suggest an important role of neuronal 5-HT reuptake in DMN regulation.

  7. Prediction control of active power filters

    王莉娜; 罗安

    2003-01-01

    A prediction method to obtain harmonic reference for active power filter is presented. It is a new use ofthe adaptive predictive filter based on FIR. The delay inherent in digital controller is successfully compensated by u-sing the proposed method, and the computing load is not very large compared with the conventional method. Moreo-ver, no additional hardware is needed. Its DSP-based realization is also presented, which is characterized by time-va-riant rate sampling, quasi synchronous sampling, and synchronous operation among the line frequency, PWM gener-ating and sampling in A/D unit. Synchronous operation releases the limitation on PWM modulation ratio and guar-antees that the electrical noises resulting from the switching operation of IGBTs do not interfere with the sampledcurrent. The simulation and experimental results verify the satisfactory performance of the proposed method.

  8. Temporal patterns of saccadic eye movements predict individual variation in alternation rate during binocular rivalry

    Hancock, Sarah; Gareze, Lynn; Findlay, John M; Andrews, Timothy J.

    2012-01-01

    Interindividual variation has been shown in the rates at which subjects alternate in perception during viewing of binocular rivalry and other ambiguous figures. A similar pattern of interindividual variation is evident in the rate of eye movements. The aim of this study was to determine whether individual differences in the rate of binocular rivalry predict individual differences in the rate of eye movements. First, participants reported changes in perception during contour rivalry. We found ...

  9. CERAPP: Collaborative estrogen receptor activity prediction project

    Mansouri, Kamel; Abdelaziz, Ahmed; Rybacka, Aleksandra;

    2016-01-01

    Background: Humans are exposed to thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. Some chemicals mimic natural endocrine hormones and, thus, have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these chemicals have never been tested for their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER......). Risk assessors need tools to prioritize chemicals for evaluation in costly in vivo tests, for instance, within the U.S. EPA Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program. oBjectives: We describe a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) and...

  10. Research in using radon content variation to predict earthquakes in China

    This paper provides an overview of our researches in using anomalous variation of radon content in earthquake prediction in China, including observations and studies on earthquake precursors, researches on mechanism of radon precursors, and their complexity. In March 1966, an Ms7.2 strong earthquake broke out in Xingtai, North China unexpected, causing a great deal of casualty. China started earthquake prediction research ever since, so does the research in using variation of radon content to predict earthquakes. In the past 30 years, we have accumulated numerous precursory observational data, and have greatly advanced the understanding of the mechanism of radon earthquake precursors. Radon, as one of the most important items for precursory observation, has played a key role in the earthquake monitoring and prediction in China. (author)

  11. Seasonal variations in daily rhythms of activity in athletic horses.

    Bertolucci, C; Giannetto, C; Fazio, F; Piccione, G

    2008-07-01

    Circadian rhythms reflect extensive programming of biological activity that meets and exploits the challenges and opportunities offered by the periodic nature of the environment. In the present investigation, we recorded the total activity of athletic horses kept at four different times of the year (vernal equinox, summer solstice, autumn equinox and winter solstice), to evaluate the presence of seasonal variations of daily activity rhythms. Athletic Thoroughbred horses were kept in individual boxes with paddock. Digitally integrated measure of total activity of each mare was continuously recorded by actigraphy-based data loggers. Horse total activities were not evenly distributed over the day, but they were mainly diurnal during the year. Daily activity rhythms showed clear seasonal variations, with the highest daily amount of activity during the vernal equinox and the lowest during the winter solstice. Interestingly, the amount of activity during either photophase or scotophase changed significantly throughout the year. Circadian analysis of horse activities showed that the acrophase, the estimated time at which the peak of the rhythm occurs, did not change during the year, it always occurred in the middle of the photoperiod. Analysing the time structure of long-term and continuously measured activity and feeding could be a useful method to critically evaluate athletic horse management systems in which spontaneous locomotor activity and feeding are severely limited. Circadian rhythms are present in several elements of sensory motor and psychomotor functions and these would be taken into consideration to plan the training schedules and competitions in athletic horses. PMID:22443706

  12. Variation in GYS1 interacts with exercise and gender to predict cardiovascular mortality.

    Jenny Fredriksson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The muscle glycogen synthase gene (GYS1 has been associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D, the metabolic syndrome (MetS, male myocardial infarction and a defective increase in muscle glycogen synthase protein in response to exercise. We addressed the questions whether polymorphism in GYS1 can predict cardiovascular (CV mortality in a high-risk population, if this risk is influenced by gender or physical activity, and if the association is independent of genetic variation in nearby apolipoprotein E gene (APOE. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Polymorphisms in GYS1 (XbaIC>T and APOE (-219G>T, epsilon2/epsilon3/epsilon4 were genotyped in 4,654 subjects participating in the Botnia T2D-family study and followed for a median of eight years. Mortality analyses were performed using Cox proportional-hazards regression. During the follow-up period, 749 individuals died, 409 due to CV causes. In males the GYS1 XbaI T-allele (hazard ratio (HR 1.9 [1.2-2.9], T2D (2.5 [1.7-3.8], earlier CV events (1.7 [1.2-2.5], physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2-2.9] and smoking (1.5 [1.0-2.3] predicted CV mortality. The GYS1 XbaI T-allele predicted CV mortality particularly in physically active males (HR 1.7 [1.3-2.0]. Association of GYS1 with CV mortality was independent of APOE (219TT/epsilon4, which by its own exerted an effect on CV mortality risk in females (2.9 [1.9-4.4]. Other independent predictors of CV mortality in females were fasting plasma glucose (1.2 [1.1-1.2], high body mass index (BMI (1.0 [1.0-1.1], hypertension (1.9 [1.2-3.1], earlier CV events (1.9 [1.3-2.8] and physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2-2.8]. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Polymorphisms in GYS1 and APOE predict CV mortality in T2D families in a gender-specific fashion and independently of each other. Physical exercise seems to unmask the effect associated with the GYS1 polymorphism, rendering carriers of the variant allele less susceptible to the protective effect of exercise on the risk of CV death

  13. Using an expiratory resistor, arterial pulse pressure variations predict fluid responsiveness during spontaneous breathing: an experimental porcine study

    Dahl, Michael K.; Vistisen, Simon T; Koefoed-Nielsen, Jacob; Larsson, Anders

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Fluid responsiveness prediction is difficult in spontaneously breathing patients. Because the swings in intrathoracic pressure are minor during spontaneous breathing, dynamic parameters like pulse pressure variation (PPV) and systolic pressure variation (SPV) are usually small. We hypothesized that during spontaneous breathing, inspiratory and/or expiratory resistors could induce high arterial pressure variations at hypovolemia and low variations at normovolemia and hypervolemia....

  14. Predictive Distribution of the Dirichlet Mixture Model by the Local Variational Inference Method

    Ma, Zhanyu; Leijon, Arne; Tan, Zheng-Hua;

    2014-01-01

    predictive likelihood of the new upcoming data, especially when the amount of training data is small. The Bayesian estimation of a Dirichlet mixture model (DMM) is, in general, not analytically tractable. In our previous work, we have proposed a global variational inference-based method for approximately...

  15. Genomic Copy Number Variations in the Genomes of Leukocytes Predict Prostate Cancer Clinical Outcomes.

    Yan P Yu

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of prostate cancer clinical courses remains elusive. In this study, we performed whole genome copy number analysis on leukocytes of 273 prostate cancer patients using Affymetrix SNP6.0 chip. Copy number variations (CNV were found across all chromosomes of the human genome. An average of 152 CNV fragments per genome was identified in the leukocytes from prostate cancer patients. The size distributions of CNV in the genome of leukocytes were highly correlative with prostate cancer aggressiveness. A prostate cancer outcome prediction model was developed based on large size ratio of CNV from the leukocyte genomes. This prediction model generated an average prediction rate of 75.2%, with sensitivity of 77.3% and specificity of 69.0% for prostate cancer recurrence. When combined with Nomogram and the status of fusion transcripts, the average prediction rate was improved to 82.5% with sensitivity of 84.8% and specificity of 78.2%. In addition, the leukocyte prediction model was 62.6% accurate in predicting short prostate specific antigen doubling time. When combined with Gleason's grade, Nomogram and the status of fusion transcripts, the prediction model generated a correct prediction rate of 77.5% with 73.7% sensitivity and 80.1% specificity. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing that CNVs in leukocyte genomes are predictive of clinical outcomes of a human malignancy.

  16. Neutron flux variations near the Earth’s crust. A possible tectonic activity detection

    B. M. Kuzhevskij

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The present work contains some results of observations of neutron flux variations near the Earth’s surface. The Earth’s crust is determined to be a significant source of thermal and slow neutrons, originated from the interaction between the nuclei of the elements of the Earth’s crust and the atmosphere and α-particles, produced by decay of radioactive gases (Radon, Thoron and Actinon. In turn, variations of radioactive gases exhalation is connected with geodynamical processes in the Earth’s crust, including tectonic activity. This determined relation between the processes in the Earth’s crust and neutrons’ flux allow to use variations of thermal and slow neutrons’ flux in order to observe increasing tectonic activity and to develop methods for short-term prediction of natural hazards.

  17. Response of global lightning activity to air temperature variation

    MA Ming; TAO Shanchang; ZHU Baoyou; L(U) Weitao; TAN Yongbo

    2005-01-01

    It is an issue of great attention but yet not very clear whether lightning activities increase or decrease on a warmer world. Reeve et al. presented that lightning activities in global land and the Northern Hemisphere land have positive response to the increase of wet bulb temperature at 1000hPa. Is this positive response restricted only to wet bulb temperature or in land? What is the response of global lightning activities (in both land and ocean) to the global surface air temperature variation like? This paper, based on the 5-year or 8-year OTD/LIS satellite-based lightning detecting data and the NCEP reanalysis data, makes a reanalysis of the response of the global and regional lightning activities to temperature variations. The results show that on the interannual time scale the global total flash rate has positive response to the variation in global surface air temperature, with the sensitivity of 17±7% K-1. Also, the seasonal mean flash rate of continents all over the world and that of continents in the Northern Hemisphere have sensitive positive response to increase of global surface air temperature and wet bulb temperature, with the sensitivity of about 13±5% K-1, a bit lower than estimation of 40% K-1 in Reeve et al. However, the Southern Hemisphere and other areas like the tropics show no significant correlation.

  18. Diurnal changes of earthquake activity and geomagnetic Sq-variations

    Duma, G.; Ruzhin, Y.

    Statistic analyses demonstrate that the probability of earthquake occurrence in many earthquake regions strongly depends on the time of day, that is on Local Time (e.g. Conrad, 1909, 1932; Shimshoni, 1971; Duma, 1997; Duma and Vilardo, 1998). This also applies to strong earthquake activity. Moreover, recent observations reveal an involvement of the regular diurnal variations of the Earth's magnetic field, commonly known as Sq-variations, in this geodynamic process of changing earthquake activity with the time of day (Duma, 1996, 1999). In the article it is attempted to quantify the forces which result from the interaction between the induced Sq-variation currents in the Earth's lithosphere and the regional Earth's magnetic field, in order to assess the influence on the tectonic stress field and on seismic activity. A reliable model is obtained, which indicates a high energy involved in this process. The effect of Sq-induction is compared with the results of the large scale electromagnetic experiment "Khibiny" (Velikhov, 1989), where a giant artificial current loop was activated in the Barents Sea.

  19. Diurnal changes of earthquake activity and geomagnetic Sq-variations

    G. Duma

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistic analyses demonstrate that the probability of earthquake occurrence in many earthquake regions strongly depends on the time of day, that is on Local Time (e.g. Conrad, 1909, 1932; Shimshoni, 1971; Duma, 1997; Duma and Vilardo, 1998. This also applies to strong earthquake activity. Moreover, recent observations reveal an involvement of the regular diurnal variations of the Earth’s magnetic field, commonly known as Sq-variations, in this geodynamic process of changing earthquake activity with the time of day (Duma, 1996, 1999. In the article it is attempted to quantify the forces which result from the interaction between the induced Sq-variation currents in the Earth’s lithosphere and the regional Earth’s magnetic field, in order to assess the influence on the tectonic stress field and on seismic activity. A reliable model is obtained, which indicates a high energy involved in this process. The effect of Sq-induction is compared with the results of the large scale electromagnetic experiment "Khibiny" (Velikhov, 1989, where a giant artificial current loop was activated in the Barents Sea.

  20. Intrapulpal temperature variation during bleaching with various activation mechanisms

    Sílvia Masae de Araujo Michida

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the intrapulpal temperature variation after bleaching treatment with 35% hydrogen peroxide using different sources of activation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Twenty-four human teeth were sectioned in the mesiodistal direction providing 48 specimens, and were divided into 4 groups (n=12: (G1 Control - Bleaching gel without light activation, (G2 Bleaching gel + halogen light, (G3 Bleaching gel + LED, (G4 Bleaching gel + Nd:YAG Laser. The temperatures were recorded using a digital thermometer at 4 time points: before bleaching gel application, 1 min after bleaching gel application, during activation of the bleaching gel, and after the bleaching agent turned from a dark-red into a clear gel. Data were analyzed statistically by the Dunnet's test, ANOVA and Tukey's test (a=0.05. RESULTS: The mean intrapulpal temperature values (ºC in the groups were: G1: 0.617 ± 0.41; G2: 1.800 ± 0.68; G3: 0.975 ± 0.51; and G4: 4.325 ± 1.09. The mean maximum temperature variation (MTV values were: 1.5ºC (G1, 2.9ºC (G2, 1.7ºC (G3 and 6.9ºC (G4. When comparing the experimental groups to the control group, G3 was not statistically different from G1 (p>0.05, but G2 and G4 presented significantly higher (p<0.05 intrapulpal temperatures and MTV. The three experimental groups differed significantly (p<0.05 from each other. CONCLUSIONS: The Nd:YAG laser was the activation method that presented the highest values of intrapulpal temperature variation when compared with LED and halogen light. The group activated by LED light presented the lowest values of temperature variation, which were similar to that of the control group.

  1. Diurnal changes of earthquake activity and geomagnetic Sq-variations

    Duma, G.; Y. Ruzhin

    2003-01-01

    Statistic analyses demonstrate that the probability of earthquake occurrence in many earthquake regions strongly depends on the time of day, that is on Local Time (e.g. Conrad, 1909, 1932; Shimshoni, 1971; Duma, 1997; Duma and Vilardo, 1998). This also applies to strong earthquake activity. Moreover, recent observations reveal an involvement of the regular diurnal variations of the Earth’s magnetic field, commonly known as Sq-vari...

  2. How to evaluate performance of prediction methods? Measures and their interpretation in variation effect analysis

    Vihinen Mauno

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prediction methods are increasingly used in biosciences to forecast diverse features and characteristics. Binary two-state classifiers are the most common applications. They are usually based on machine learning approaches. For the end user it is often problematic to evaluate the true performance and applicability of computational tools as some knowledge about computer science and statistics would be needed. Results Instructions are given on how to interpret and compare method evaluation results. For systematic method performance analysis is needed established benchmark datasets which contain cases with known outcome, and suitable evaluation measures. The criteria for benchmark datasets are discussed along with their implementation in VariBench, benchmark database for variations. There is no single measure that alone could describe all the aspects of method performance. Predictions of genetic variation effects on DNA, RNA and protein level are important as information about variants can be produced much faster than their disease relevance can be experimentally verified. Therefore numerous prediction tools have been developed, however, systematic analyses of their performance and comparison have just started to emerge. Conclusions The end users of prediction tools should be able to understand how evaluation is done and how to interpret the results. Six main performance evaluation measures are introduced. These include sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, accuracy and Matthews correlation coefficient. Together with receiver operating characteristics (ROC analysis they provide a good picture about the performance of methods and allow their objective and quantitative comparison. A checklist of items to look at is provided. Comparisons of methods for missense variant tolerance, protein stability changes due to amino acid substitutions, and effects of variations on mRNA splicing are

  3. Improving prediction accuracy of GPS satellite clocks with periodic variation behaviour

    The broadcast ephemeris and IGS ultra-rapid predicted (IGU-P) products are primarily available for use in real-time GPS applications. The IGU orbit precision has been remarkably improved since late 2007, but its clock products have not shown acceptably high-quality prediction performance. One reason for this fact is that satellite atomic clocks in space can be easily influenced by various factors such as temperature and environment and this leads to complicated aspects like periodic variations, which are not sufficiently described by conventional models. A more reliable prediction model is thus proposed in this paper in order to be utilized particularly in describing the periodic variation behaviour satisfactorily. The proposed prediction model for satellite clocks adds cyclic terms to overcome the periodic effects and adopts delay coordinate embedding, which offers the possibility of accessing linear or nonlinear coupling characteristics like satellite behaviour. The simulation results have shown that the proposed prediction model outperforms the IGU-P solutions at least on a daily basis. (rapid communication)

  4. Explained variation and predictive accuracy in general parametric statistical models: the role of model misspecification

    Rosthøj, Susanne; Keiding, Niels

    2004-01-01

    When studying a regression model measures of explained variation are used to assess the degree to which the covariates determine the outcome of interest. Measures of predictive accuracy are used to assess the accuracy of the predictions based on the covariates and the regression model. We give a ...... detailed and general introduction to the two measures and the estimation procedures. The framework we set up allows for a study of the effect of misspecification on the quantities estimated. We also introduce a generalization to survival analysis....

  5. Deducing ink thickness variations of fluorescent print by a spectral prediction model

    Wang, Qingjuan; Zhang, Yixin; Tian, Dongwen

    2012-01-01

    In the color printing process, the thickness and uniformity of ink have a great affect on the color reproduction. The ink thickness uniformity is an important parameters of measuring the quality of printing. Based on the fluorescent additives may absorb ultraviolet light and exit blue light or visible light and by considering the expansion of the ink, optical properties of paper with fluorescent additives , the internal lateral spread of light in paper with fluorescent additives and the fluorescent Clapper-Yule spectral reflectance prediction model, we introduce two factor parameters which are the initial thickness of the inks and the factor of ink thickness variation. A model for deducing ink thickness variations of printing on the fluorescent substrate is developed by the least square method and the spectrum reflectance of prints which measures the ink thickness variations. The correctness of the conclusions are verified by experiment.

  6. Intraspecific morphological and genetic variation of common species predicts ranges of threatened ones

    Fuller, Trevon L.; Thomassen, Henri A.; Peralvo, Manuel; Buermann, Wolfgang; Milá, Borja; Kieswetter, Charles M.; Jarrín-V, Pablo; Devitt, Susan E. Cameron; Mason, Eliza; Schweizer, Rena M.; Schlunegger, Jasmin; Chan, Janice; Wang, Ophelia; Schneider, Christopher J.; Pollinger, John P.; Saatchi, Sassan; Graham, Catherine H.; Wayne, Robert K.; Smith, Thomas B.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting where threatened species occur is useful for making informed conservation decisions. However, because they are usually rare, surveying threatened species is often expensive and time intensive. Here, we show how regions where common species exhibit high genetic and morphological divergence among populations can be used to predict the occurrence of species of conservation concern. Intraspecific variation of common species of birds, bats and frogs from Ecuador were found to be a significantly better predictor for the occurrence of threatened species than suites of environmental variables or the occurrence of amphibians and birds. Fully 93 per cent of the threatened species analysed had their range adequately represented by the geographical distribution of the morphological and genetic variation found in seven common species. Both higher numbers of threatened species and greater genetic and morphological variation of common species occurred along elevation gradients. Higher levels of intraspecific divergence may be the result of disruptive selection and/or introgression along gradients. We suggest that collecting data on genetic and morphological variation in common species can be a cost effective tool for conservation planning, and that future biodiversity inventories include surveying genetic and morphological data of common species whenever feasible. PMID:23595273

  7. Measured and Predicted Variations in Fast Neutron Spectrum in Massive Shields of Water and Concrete

    The absolute magnitude, and the variations in form, of the fast neutron spectrum during deep penetration (0.8 - 1.1 metre) in massive shields of water, ordinary and magnetite concrete have been studied by using threshold detectors (In (n, h'), S(n,p), Al(n, α)). The results have been compared with predictions by two rigorous (NIOBE, Moments method) and two non-rigorous (multigroup removal-diffusion) shielding codes (NRN, RASH D). The absolute results predicted were in general within 50% of the measured ones, i. e. showed as good or better accuracy than thermal and epithermal flux predictions in the same small-reactor configurations. No difference in accuracy was found between the rigorous and non-rigorous methods. The changes in the relative form of the spectrum (indicated by variations in the (Al/S) and (In/S) reaction rate ratios and amounting to factors up to 3 - 4 during a one metre penetration in water) were rather accurately (within 10 - 30%) predicted by all of the methods. The photonuclear excitation of the 335 keV level used for detecting the In(n, n') reaction was found to distort completely the In results in water at penetrations > 50 cm

  8. Active experiments in the ionosphere and geomagnetic field variations

    Sivokon, V. P.; Cherneva, N. V.; Khomutov, S. Y.; Serovetnikov, A. S.

    2014-11-01

    Variations of ionospheric-magnetospheric relation energy, as one of the possible outer climatology factors, may be traced on the basis of analysis of natural geophysical phenomena such as ionosphere artificial radio radiation and magnetic storms. Experiments on active impact on the ionosphere have been carried out for quite a long time in Russia as well. The most modern heating stand is located in Alaska; it has been used within the HAARP Program. The possibility of this stand to affect geophysical fields, in particular, the geomagnetic field is of interest.

  9. Computational Methodology for the Prediction of Functional Requirement Variations Across the Product Life-Cycle

    Mandil, Guillaume; Rivière, Alain

    2009-01-01

    The great majority of engineered products are subject to thermo-mechanical loads which vary with the product environment during the various phases of its life-cycle (machining, assembly, intended service use...). Those load variations may result in different values of the parts nominal dimensions, which in turn generate corresponding variation of the effective clearance (functional requirement) in the assembly. Usually, and according to the contractual drawings, the parts are measured after the machining stage, whereas the interesting measurement values are the ones taken in service for they allow the prediction of clearance value under operating conditions. Unfortunately, measurement in operating conditions may not be practical to obtain. Hence, the main purpose of this research is to create, through computations and simulations, links between the values of the loads, dimensions and functional requirements during the successive phases of the life cycle of some given product. [...

  10. Surface Temperature Variation Prediction Model Using Real-Time Weather Forecasts

    Karimi, M.; Vant-Hull, B.; Nazari, R.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2015-12-01

    Combination of climate change and urbanization are heating up cities and putting the lives of millions of people in danger. More than half of the world's total population resides in cities and urban centers. Cities are experiencing urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Hotter days are associated with serious health impacts, heart attaches and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Densely populated cities like Manhattan, New York can be affected by UHI impact much more than less populated cities. Even though many studies have been focused on the impact of UHI and temperature changes between urban and rural air temperature, not many look at the temperature variations within a city. These studies mostly use remote sensing data or typical measurements collected by local meteorological station networks. Local meteorological measurements only have local coverage and cannot be used to study the impact of UHI in a city and remote sensing data such as MODIS, LANDSAT and ASTER have with very low resolution which cannot be used for the purpose of this study. Therefore, predicting surface temperature in urban cities using weather data can be useful.Three months of Field campaign in Manhattan were used to measure spatial and temporal temperature variations within an urban setting by placing 10 fixed sensors deployed to measure temperature, relative humidity and sunlight. Fixed instrument shelters containing relative humidity, temperature and illumination sensors were mounted on lampposts in ten different locations in Manhattan (Vant-Hull et al, 2014). The shelters were fixed 3-4 meters above the ground for the period of three months from June 23 to September 20th of 2013 making measurements with the interval of 3 minutes. These high resolution temperature measurements and three months of weather data were used to predict temperature variability from weather forecasts. This study shows that the amplitude of spatial and temporal variation in temperature for each day can be predicted

  11. The Built Environment Predicts Observed Physical Activity

    Kelly, Cheryl; Wilson, Jeffrey S.; Schootman, Mario; Clennin, Morgan; Baker, Elizabeth A.; Miller, Douglas K.

    2014-01-01

    Background: In order to improve our understanding of the relationship between the built environment and physical activity, it is important to identify associations between specific geographic characteristics and physical activity behaviors. Purpose: Examine relationships between observed physical activity behavior and measures of the built environment collected on 291 street segments in Indianapolis and St. Louis. Methods: Street segments were selected using a stratified geographic samp...

  12. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-10-01

    Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

  13. Spatial-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Rainfall in Northeastern Nigeria

    Umar M. Bibi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Northeastern Nigeria seasonal rainfall is critical for the availability of water for domestic use through surface and sub-surface recharge and agricultural production, which is mostly rain fed. Variability in rainfall over the last 60 years is the main cause for crop failure and water scarcity in the region, particularly, due to late onset of rainfall, short dry spells and multi-annual droughts. In this study, we analyze 27 years (1980–2006 of gridded daily rainfall data obtained from a merged dataset by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction and Climate Research Unit reanalysis data (NCEP-CRU for spatial-temporal variability of monthly amounts and frequency in rainfall and rainfall trends. Temporal variability was assessed using the percentage coefficient of variation and temporal trends in rainfall were assessed using maps of linear regression slopes for the months of May through October. These six months cover the period of the onset and cessation of the wet season throughout the region. Monthly rainfall amount and frequency were then predicted over a 24-month period using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA Model. The predictions were evaluated using NCEP-CRU data for the same period. Kolmogorov Smirnov test results suggest that despite there are some months during the wet season (May–October when there is no significant agreement (p < 0.05 between the monthly distribution of the values of the model and the corresponding 24-month NCEP-CRU data, the model did better than simply replicating the long term mean of the data used for the prediction. Overall, the model does well in areas and months with lower temporal rainfall variability. Maps of the coefficient of variation and regression slopes are presented to indicate areas of high rainfall variability and water deficit over the period under study. The implications of these results for future policies on Agriculture and Water Management in the region are

  14. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    Shangkun Deng; Takashi Mitsubuchi; Akito Sakurai

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as pe...

  15. Variations in Extratropical Cyclone Activity in Northern East Asia

    WANG Xinmin; ZHAI Panmao; WANG Cuicui

    2009-01-01

    Based on an improved objective cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, decadal variations in extratropical cyclones in northern East Asia are studied by using the ECMWF 40 Year Reanalysis (ERA-40) sea-level pressure data during 1958-2001. The results reveal that extratropical cyclone activity has displayed clear seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in northern East Asia. Spring is the season when cyclones occur most frequently. The spatial distribution of extratropical cyclones shows that cyclones occur mainly within the 40°-50°N latitudinal band in northern East Asia, and the most frequent region of occurrence is in Mongolia. Furthermore, this study also reveals the fact that the frequency of extratropical cyclones has significantly decreased in the lower latitude region of northern East Asia during 1958-2001, but dccadal variability has dominated in higher latitude bands, with frequent cyclone genesis. The intensity of extratropical cyclones has decreased on an annual and seasonal basis. Variation of the annual number of cyclones in northern East Asia is associated with the mean intensity of the baroclinic frontal zone, which is influenced by climate warming in the higher latitudes. Moreover, the dipole structure of extratopical cyclone change, with increases in the north and decreases in the southern part of northern East Asia, is related to the northward movement of the baroclinic frontal zone on either side of 110°E.

  16. Reconstruction and prediction of variations in the open solar magnetic flux and interplanetary conditions

    Mike Lockwood

    2013-01-01

    Historic geomagnetic activity observations have been used to reveal centennial variations in the open solar flux and the near-Earth heliospheric conditions (the interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind speed). The various methods are in very good agreement for the past 135 years when there were sufficient reliable magnetic observatories in operation to eliminate problems due to site-specific errors and calibration drifts. This review underlines the physical principles that allow these...

  17. Analysis of substructural variation in families of enzymatic proteins with applications to protein function prediction

    Fofanov Viacheslav Y

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Structural variations caused by a wide range of physico-chemical and biological sources directly influence the function of a protein. For enzymatic proteins, the structure and chemistry of the catalytic binding site residues can be loosely defined as a substructure of the protein. Comparative analysis of drug-receptor substructures across and within species has been used for lead evaluation. Substructure-level similarity between the binding sites of functionally similar proteins has also been used to identify instances of convergent evolution among proteins. In functionally homologous protein families, shared chemistry and geometry at catalytic sites provide a common, local point of comparison among proteins that may differ significantly at the sequence, fold, or domain topology levels. Results This paper describes two key results that can be used separately or in combination for protein function analysis. The Family-wise Analysis of SubStructural Templates (FASST method uses all-against-all substructure comparison to determine Substructural Clusters (SCs. SCs characterize the binding site substructural variation within a protein family. In this paper we focus on examples of automatically determined SCs that can be linked to phylogenetic distance between family members, segregation by conformation, and organization by homology among convergent protein lineages. The Motif Ensemble Statistical Hypothesis (MESH framework constructs a representative motif for each protein cluster among the SCs determined by FASST to build motif ensembles that are shown through a series of function prediction experiments to improve the function prediction power of existing motifs. Conclusions FASST contributes a critical feedback and assessment step to existing binding site substructure identification methods and can be used for the thorough investigation of structure-function relationships. The application of MESH allows for an automated

  18. Activity, exposure rate and spectrum prediction with Java programming

    In order to envision the radiation exposure during Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) experiments, a software called Activity Predictor is developed using JavaTM programming language. The Activity Predictor calculates activities, exposure rates and gamma spectra of activated samples for NAA experiments performed at Radiation Science and Engineering Center (RSEC), Penn State Breazeale Reactor (PSBR). The calculation procedure for predictions involves both analytical and Monte Carlo methods. The Activity Predictor software is validated with a series of activation experiments. It has been found that Activity Predictor software calculates the activities and exposure rates precisely. The software also predicts gamma spectrum for each measurement. The predicted spectra agreed partially with measured spectra. The error in net photo peak areas varied from 4.8 to 51.29%, which is considered to be due to simplistic modeling, statistical fluctuations and unknown contaminants in the samples. (author)

  19. Active Power Filter Using Predicted Current Control

    Xiaojie, Y.; Pivoňka, P.; Valouch, Viktor

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 46, č. 1 (2001), s. 41-50. ISSN 0001-7043 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z2057903 Keywords : active power filter * control strategy Subject RIV: JA - Electronics ; Optoelectronics, Electrical Engineering

  20. Prediction of galactic cosmic ray intensity variation for a few (up to 10-12) years ahead on the basis of convection-diffusion and drift model

    We determine the dimension of the Heliosphere (modulation region) radial diffusion coefficient and other parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms of cosmic ray (CR) long-term variation, depending on particle energy, the level of solar activity (SA) and general solar magnetic field. This important information we obtain on the basis of CR and SA data in the past, taking into account the theory of convection-diffusion and drift global modulation of galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and predictions which are regularly published elsewhere of expected SA variation in the near future and prediction of next future SA cycle, we may make a prediction of the expected in the near future long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. We show that by this method we may make a prediction of the expected in the near future (up to 10-12 years, and may be more, in dependence for what period can be made definite prediction of SA) galactic cosmic ray intensity variation in the interplanetary space of different distances from the Sun, in the Earth's magnetosphere, and in the atmosphere at different altitudes and latitudes. (orig.)

  1. Spatial variation and prediction of forest biomass in a heterogeneous landscape

    S.Lamsal; D.M.Rizzo; R.K.Meentemeyer

    2012-01-01

    Large areas assessments of forest biomass distribution are a challenge in heterogeneous landscapes,where variations in tree growth and species composition occur over short distances.In this study,we use statistical and geospatial modeling on densely sampled forest biomass data to analyze the relative importance of ecological and physiographic variables as determinants of spatial variation of forest biomass in the environmentally heterogeneous region of the Big Sur,California.We estimated biomass in 280 forest plots (one plot per 2.85 km2) and measured an array of ecological (vegetation community type,distance to edge,amount of surrounding non-forest vegetation,soil properties,fire history) and physiographic drivers (elevation,potential soil moisture and solar radiation,proximity to the coast) of tree growth at each plot location.Our geostatistical analyses revealed that biomass distribution is spatially structured and autocorrelated up to 3.1 km.Regression tree (RT) models showed that both physiographic and ecological factors influenced biomass distribution.Across randomly selected sample densities (sample size 112 to 280),ecological effects of vegetation community type and distance to forest edge,and physiographic effects of elevation,potentialsoil moisture and solar radiation were the most consistent predictors of biomass.Topographic moisture index and potential solar radiation had a positive effect on biomass,indicating the importance of topographicallymediated energy and moisture on plant growth and biomass accumulation.RT model explained 35% of the variation in biomass and spatially autocorrelated variation were retained in regession residuals.Regression kriging model,developed from RT combined with kriging of regression residuals,was used to map biomass across the Big Sur.This study demonstrates how statistical and geospatial modeling can be used to discriminate the relative importance of physiographic and ecologic effects on forest biomass and develop

  2. Length and activation dependent variations in muscle shear wave speed

    Muscle stiffness is known to vary as a result of a variety of disease states, yet current clinical methods for quantifying muscle stiffness have limitations including cost and availability. We investigated the capability of shear wave elastography (SWE) to measure variations in gastrocnemius shear wave speed induced via active contraction and passive stretch. Ten healthy young adults were tested. Shear wave speeds were measured using a SWE transducer positioned over the medial gastrocnemius at ankle angles ranging from maximum dorsiflexion to maximum plantarflexion. Shear wave speeds were also measured during voluntary plantarflexor contractions at a fixed ankle angle. Average shear wave speed increased significantly from 2.6 to 5.6 m s–1 with passive dorsiflexion and the knee in an extended posture, but did not vary with dorsiflexion when the gastrocnemius was shortened in a flexed knee posture. During active contractions, shear wave speed monotonically varied with the net ankle moment generated, reaching 8.3 m s–1 in the maximally contracted condition. There was a linear correlation between shear wave speed and net ankle moment in both the active and passive conditions; however, the slope of this linear relationship was significantly steeper for the data collected during passive loading conditions. The results show that SWE is a promising approach for quantitatively assessing changes in mechanical muscle loading. However, the differential effect of active and passive loading on shear wave speed makes it important to carefully consider the relevant loading conditions in which to use SWE to characterize in vivo muscle properties. (paper)

  3. Spatial and temporal variations of thunderstorm activities over Sri Lanka

    Sonnadara, Upul

    2016-05-01

    Spatial and temporal variation of frequencies of thunderstorms over Sri Lanka using thunder day data is presented. A thunder day is simply a calendar day in which thunder is heard at least once at a given location. Two sets of data were collected and analyzed: annual totals for 10 climatological stations for a period of 50 years and monthly totals for 20 climatological stations for a period of 20 years. The average annual thunder days over Sri Lanka was found to be 76. Among the climatological stations considered, a high number of annual thunder days was recorded in Ratnapura (150 days/year), followed by Colombo (108 days/year) and Bandarawela (106 days/year). It appears that there are no widespread long-term increasing or decreasing trends in thunderstorm frequencies. However, Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka which has over two million people shows an increasing trend of 0.8 thunder days per year. Although there is a high variability between stations reporting the number of thunder days, the overall pattern within a year is clear. Thunderstorm frequencies are high during two periods: March-May and September-November, which coincide with the first inter-monsoon and second inter-monsoon periods. Compared to the dry zone, the wet zone, especially the southwestern region, has high thunderstorm activity. There is a clear spatial difference in thunderstorm activities during the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons. During both these seasons, enhanced thunderstorm activities are reported on the leeward side of the mountain range. A slight reduction in the thunderstorm activities was found in the high elevation areas of the hill country compared to the surrounding areas. A lightning ground flash density map derived using annual thunder days is also presented.

  4. Solar activity, geomagnetic perturbations and Vrancea (Romania) earthquake short-term predictability

    The paper presents the main results of applying the electromagnetic method for the short- term prediction of Vrancea earthquakes. The results are based on electromagnetic records made at Muntele Rosu Geophysical Observatory in Romania during the period December 1997 to July 2003. The paper highlights the importance as a precursor factor of the magnetic impedance BZ/BX, where BZ is the vertical component of the geomagnetic flux density and BX its horizontal component. The time variation of BZ/BX is closely examined in correlation with Vrancea seismic activity. The variations are compared to the geomagnetic perturbation of Ak > 20 (magnetic storms) that are generated by solar activity. Relations between these three factors, i.e. the BZ/BX ratio, magnetic storms, and Vrancea seismic activity are seen to combine into five distinct situations. The feasibility and difficulties of using the electromagnetic method for the short-term prediction of Vrancea earthquakes are examined in the final section. (authors)

  5. Predicting mining activity with parallel genetic algorithms

    Talaie, S.; Leigh, R.; Louis, S.J.; Raines, G.L.

    2005-01-01

    We explore several different techniques in our quest to improve the overall model performance of a genetic algorithm calibrated probabilistic cellular automata. We use the Kappa statistic to measure correlation between ground truth data and data predicted by the model. Within the genetic algorithm, we introduce a new evaluation function sensitive to spatial correctness and we explore the idea of evolving different rule parameters for different subregions of the land. We reduce the time required to run a simulation from 6 hours to 10 minutes by parallelizing the code and employing a 10-node cluster. Our empirical results suggest that using the spatially sensitive evaluation function does indeed improve the performance of the model and our preliminary results also show that evolving different rule parameters for different regions tends to improve overall model performance. Copyright 2005 ACM.

  6. Robust Active Suspension Design Subject to Vehicle Inertial Parameter Variations

    Hai-Ping Du; Nong Zhang

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an approach in designing a robust controller for vehicle suspensions considering changes in vehicle inertial properties. A four-degree-of-freedom half-car model with active suspension is studied in this paper, and three main performance requirements are considered. Among these requirements, the ride comfort performance is optimized by minimizing the H∞ norm of the transfer function from the road disturbance to the sprung mass acceleration, while the road holding performance and the suspension deflection limitation are guaranteed by constraining the generalized H2 (GH2) norms of the transfer functions from the road disturbance to the dynamic tyre load and the suspension deflection to be less than their hard limits, respectively. At the same time, the controller saturation problem is considered by constraining its peak response output to be less than a given limit using the GH2 norm as well. By solving the finite number of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) with the minimization optimization procedure, the controller gains, which are dependent on the time-varying inertial parameters, can be obtained. Numerical simulations on both frequency and bump responses show that the designed parameter-dependent controller can achieve better active suspension performance compared with the passive suspension in spite of the variations of inertial parameters.

  7. Measured and Predicted Variations in Fast Neutron Spectrum when Penetrating Laminated Fe-D2O

    Variations of the fast neutron spectrum in thin regions of alternating Fe and DO have been studied using threshold detectors (ln(n, n' ), S(n, p), Al(n, α)). The results have been compared to those calculated by two shielding codes (NRN and RASH D) of multigroup removal-diffusion type. The absolute fast spectrum calculated in our rather complicated configurations was found to agree with measurements within the same accuracy (a factor of two) as did the thermal flux. The calculated spectrum is slightly harder than the measured one, but the detailed variations (covering the range 1:5) in the form of the spectrum when penetrating Fe agree with observations to within 15-20 %. In and Al activities were found to be proportional to the integrated flux over 1 MeV throughout the whole configuration, while S showed the least proportionality

  8. From field to region yield predictions in response to pedo-climatic variations in Eastern Canada

    JÉGO, G.; Pattey, E.; Liu, J.

    2013-12-01

    The increase in global population coupled with new pressures to produce energy and bioproducts from agricultural land requires an increase in crop productivity. However, the influence of climate and soil variations on crop production and environmental performance is not fully understood and accounted for to define more sustainable and economical management strategies. Regional crop modeling can be a great tool for understanding the impact of climate variations on crop production, for planning grain handling and for assessing the impact of agriculture on the environment, but it is often limited by the availability of input data. The STICS ("Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard") crop model, developed by INRA (France) is a functional crop model which has a built-in module to optimize several input parameters by minimizing the difference between calculated and measured output variables, such as Leaf Area Index (LAI). STICS crop model was adapted to the short growing season of the Mixedwood Plains Ecozone using field experiments results, to predict biomass and yield of soybean, spring wheat and corn. To minimize the numbers of inference required for regional applications, 'generic' cultivars rather than specific ones have been calibrated in STICS. After the calibration of several model parameters, the root mean square error (RMSE) of yield and biomass predictions ranged from 10% to 30% for the three crops. A bit more scattering was obtained for LAI (20%prediction to climate variations. Using RS data to re-initialize input parameters that are not readily available (e.g. seeding date) is considered an effective way

  9. Prediction model for sequence variation in the glycoprotein gene of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus in California, U.S.A.

    Kelley, Garry O; Garabed, Rebecca; Branscum, Adam; Perez, Andres; Thurmond, Mark

    2007-12-13

    The influence of spatio-temporal factors on genetic variation of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is an active area of research. Using host-isolate pairs collected from 1966 to 2004 for 237 IHNV isolates from California and southern Oregon, we examined genetic variation of the mid-G gene of IHNV that could be quantified across times and geographic locations. Information hypothesized to influence genetic variation was environmental and/or fish host demographic factors, viz. location (inland or coastal), year of isolation, habitat (river, lake, or hatchery), the agent factors of subgroup (LI or LII) and serotype (1, 2, or 3), and the host factors of fish age (juvenile or adult), sex (male or female), and season of spawning run (spring, fall, late fall, winter). Inverse distance weighting (IDW) was performed to create isopleth maps of the genetic distances of each subgroup. IDW maps showed that more genetic divergence was predicted for isolates found inland (for both subgroups: LI and LII) than for coastal watershed isolates. A mixed-effect beta regression with a logit link function was used to seek associations between genetic distances and hypothesized explanatory factors. The model that best described genetic distance contained the factors of location, year of isolation, and the interaction between location and year. Our model suggests that genetic distance was greater for isolates collected from 1966 to 2004 at inland locations than for isolates found in coastal watersheds during the same years. The agreement between the IDW and beta regression analyses quantitatively supports our conclusion that, during this time period, more genetic variation existed within subgroup LII in inland watersheds than within coastal LI isolates. PMID:18286806

  10. Regional geomagnetic field variations and seismic activity of the northern Tien Shan

    Complete text of publication follows. At present the problem of short-term earthquake prediction based on 'precursors' (featured variations of various geophysical fields) is far from solving. At the same time an evidence of earthquake triggering by natural and man-made factors is world-wide verified. Based on well-monitored triggering impacts the new concept of earthquake prediction may be developed. One of the possible powerful triggering mechanisms was proposed by G. Duma and Yu. Ruzhin [2003], indicating the generation of mechanical force in the Earth crust due to interaction of telluric currents with geomagnetic field. For verification of this hypothesis a territory of Bishkek geodynamical proving ground was selected where seismic, geomagnetic, magnetotelluric, and GPS observatories are concentrated, and extensive geophysical databases are available. Possible correlations of seismic activity of the Northern Tien Shan region (40.5 deg-44.5 degN, 71.5 deg-78.5 degE) and variations of geomagnetic magnetic field, as well as and lunar-solar tides within the period 1994-2007 are analyzed. Various statistical methods (cross-correlation, spectral analysis) were employed. The earthquake daily frequency distribution shows a common performance with the regular diurnal geomagnetic field variations. Time difference [T(E)-T(Max GMF)] between the earthquake occurrence and time of maximal daily geomagnetic field has normal distribution. 40% of earthquakes occurred in the range of -4 to +4 hour from maximal daily geomagnetic field. The effect is more pronounced for weak earthquakes (M<4), but it is observed for the whole seismic activity as well. There are a number of common long periods (7, 9, 14, 28 days) in the z-component of the earth tide and seismic activity. Nevertheless, no effect of the diurnal tidal cycle on the seismicity has been revealed. The geomagnetic correlations, which have been found, are observed for the entire region under study, and they do not depend on

  11. Nestling activity levels during begging behaviour predicts activity level and body mass in adulthood

    Luke S.C. McCowan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Across a range of species including humans, personality traits, or differences in behaviour between individuals that are consistent over time, have been demonstrated. However, few studies have measured whether these consistent differences are evident in very young animals, and whether they persist over an individual’s entire lifespan. Here we investigated the begging behaviour of very young cross-fostered zebra finch nestlings and the relationship between that and adult activity levels. We found a link between the nestling activity behaviour head movements during begging, measured at just five and seven days after hatching, and adult activity levels, measured when individuals were between three and three and a half years old. Moreover, body mass was found to be negatively correlated with both nestling and adult activity levels, suggesting that individuals which carry less body fat as adults are less active both as adults and during begging as nestlings. Our work suggests that the personality traits identified here in both very young nestlings and adults may be linked to physiological factors such as metabolism or environmental sources of variation. Moreover, our work suggests it may be possible to predict an individual’s future adult personality at a very young age, opening up new avenues for future work to explore the relationship between personality and a number of aspects of individual life history and survival.

  12. Nestling activity levels during begging behaviour predicts activity level and body mass in adulthood.

    McCowan, Luke S C; Griffith, Simon C

    2014-01-01

    Across a range of species including humans, personality traits, or differences in behaviour between individuals that are consistent over time, have been demonstrated. However, few studies have measured whether these consistent differences are evident in very young animals, and whether they persist over an individual's entire lifespan. Here we investigated the begging behaviour of very young cross-fostered zebra finch nestlings and the relationship between that and adult activity levels. We found a link between the nestling activity behaviour head movements during begging, measured at just five and seven days after hatching, and adult activity levels, measured when individuals were between three and three and a half years old. Moreover, body mass was found to be negatively correlated with both nestling and adult activity levels, suggesting that individuals which carry less body fat as adults are less active both as adults and during begging as nestlings. Our work suggests that the personality traits identified here in both very young nestlings and adults may be linked to physiological factors such as metabolism or environmental sources of variation. Moreover, our work suggests it may be possible to predict an individual's future adult personality at a very young age, opening up new avenues for future work to explore the relationship between personality and a number of aspects of individual life history and survival. PMID:25279258

  13. Total variation regularization for fMRI-based prediction of behaviour

    Michel, Vincent; Varoquaux, Gaël; Eger, Evelyn; Thirion, Bertrand

    2011-01-01

    While medical imaging typically provides massive amounts of data, the extraction of relevant information for predictive diagnosis remains a difficult challenge. Functional MRI (fMRI) data, that provide an indirect measure of task-related or spontaneous neuronal activity, are classically analyzed in a mass-univariate procedure yielding statistical parametric maps. This analysis framework disregards some important principles of brain organization: population coding, distributed and overlapping representations. Multivariate pattern analysis, i.e., the prediction of behavioural variables from brain activation patterns better captures this structure. To cope with the high dimensionality of the data, the learning method has to be regularized. However, the spatial structure of the image is not taken into account in standard regularization methods, so that the extracted features are often hard to interpret. More informative and interpretable results can be obtained with the l_1 norm of the image gradient, a.k.a. its ...

  14. Using Proximity to Predict Activity in Social Networks

    Lerman, Kristina; Intagorn, Suradej; Kang, Jeon-Hyung; Ghosh, Rumi

    2011-01-01

    The structure of a social network contains information useful for predicting its evolution. Nodes that are "close" in some sense are more likely to become linked in the future than more distant nodes. We show that structural information can also help predict node activity. We use proximity to capture the degree to which two nodes are "close" to each other in the network. In addition to standard proximity metrics used in the link prediction task, such as neighborhood overlap, we introduce new ...

  15. Line Impedance Estimation Using Active and Reactive Power Variations

    Timbus, Adrian Vasile; Rodriguez, Pedro; Teodorescu, Remus;

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes an estimation method of power system impedance based on power variations caused by a distributed power generation system (DPGS) at the point of common coupling (PCC). The proposed algorithm is computationally simple and uses the voltage variations at the point of common coupling...... (PCC) caused by the variations of the power delivered to utility network to derive the value of grid impedance. Accurate estimation of both resistive and inductive part of the impedance is obtained, as the results presented show....

  16. NAA and NAAG variation in neuronal activation during visual stimulation

    Castellano, G.; Dias, C.S.B. [Grupo de Neurofísica, Departamento de Raios Cósmicos e Cronologia, Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Programa de Cooperação Interinstitucional de Apoio à Pesquisa sobre o Cérebro (CInAPCe), SP (Brazil); Foerster, B. [Philips Medical Systems, São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Programa de Cooperação Interinstitucional de Apoio à Pesquisa sobre o Cérebro (CInAPCe), SP (Brazil); Li, L.M. [Departamento de Neurologia, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Programa de Cooperação Interinstitucional de Apoio à Pesquisa sobre o Cérebro (CInAPCe), SP (Brazil); Covolan, R.J.M. [Grupo de Neurofísica, Departamento de Raios Cósmicos e Cronologia, Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Programa de Cooperação Interinstitucional de Apoio à Pesquisa sobre o Cérebro (CInAPCe), SP (Brazil)

    2012-08-17

    N-acetyl-aspartyl-glutamate (NAAG) and its hydrolysis product N-acetyl-aspartate (NAA) are among the most important brain metabolites. NAA is a marker of neuron integrity and viability, while NAAG modulates glutamate release and may have a role in neuroprotection and synaptic plasticity. Investigating on a quantitative basis the role of these metabolites in brain metabolism in vivo by magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) is a major challenge since the main signals of NAA and NAAG largely overlap. This is a preliminary study in which we evaluated NAA and NAAG changes during a visual stimulation experiment using functional MRS. The paradigm used consisted of a rest period (5 min and 20 s), followed by a stimulation period (10 min and 40 s) and another rest period (10 min and 40 s). MRS from 17 healthy subjects were acquired at 3T with TR/TE = 2000/288 ms. Spectra were averaged over subjects and quantified with LCModel. The main outcomes were that NAA concentration decreased by about 20% with the stimulus, while the concentration of NAAG concomitantly increased by about 200%. Such variations fall into models for the energy metabolism underlying neuronal activation that point to NAAG as being responsible for the hyperemic vascular response that causes the BOLD signal. They also agree with the fact that NAAG and NAA are present in the brain at a ratio of about 1:10, and with the fact that the only known metabolic pathway for NAAG synthesis is from NAA and glutamate.

  17. Variations of the temperature and solar activity in China

    MingQi Li; QuanSheng Ge; ZhiXin Hao; JingYun Zheng

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we analyze daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature data collected at 119 meteorological stations over five regions of China during the period 1951-2010. The series of minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures from each climatic region have similar signatures, but there are differences among the five regions and the countrywide average. The results indicate that the periods of faster warming were not synchronous across the regions studied: warming in northeast China and Tibet began in 1986, while in central-east, southeast, and northwest China the warming emerged in 1995. Furthermore, central-east and northwest China, and Tibet, have warmed continuously since 2000, but the temper-ature has decreased during this period in southeast China. We evaluated the evolution of these temperature series using a novel nonlinear filtering technique based on the concept of the lifetime of temperature curves. The decadal to secular evolution of solar activity and temperature variation had similar signatures in the northeast, southeast, and northwest re-gions and the average across the whole country, indicating that solar activity is a significant control on climate change over secular time scales in these regions. In comparison with these regions, the signatures were different in central-east China and Tibet because of regional differences (e.g., landforms and elevation) and indirect effects (e.g., cloud cover influencing the radiation balance, thereby inducing climate change). Furthermore, the results of wavelet analysis indicated that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has had a significant impact on climate change, but at different times among the regions, and these changes were most probably induced by differing responses of the atmospheric system to solar forcing.

  18. Climate variation and prediction of rapid intensification in tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific

    Wang, B.; Zhou, X.

    2008-02-01

    One of the greatest challenges in tropical weather forecasting is the rapid intensification (RI) of the tropical cyclone (TC), during which its one-minute maximum sustained wind speed increases at least 30 knots per 24 hours. Here we identify and elucidate the climatic conditions that are critical to the frequency and location of the RI on annual, intraseasonal, and interannual time scales. Whereas RI and formation share common environmental preferences, we found that the percentage of TCs with RI varies annually and from year to year. In August, only 30% of TC actually experiences RI, in contrast to the annual maximum of 47% in November. The proportion of RI in July September is higher during El Niño years (53%) than the corresponding one in the La Niña years (37%). Three climate factors may contribute to the increase in the proportion of RI: the southward shift in the monthly or seasonal mean location of the TC formation, the increase in the low-level westerly meridional shear vorticity, and the decrease in northerly vertical shear. When the mean latitude of TC formation increases, the mixed-layer heat content decreases while TC’s inertial stability increases; both are more detrimental to the RI than to TC formation because the RI requires large amount of latent heat energy being extracted efficiently from the ocean mixed layer and requires accelerated low-level radial inflow that carries latent heat reaching the inner core region. We further demonstrate that the RI frequency in the Philippine Sea and South China Sea can be predicted 10 to 30 days in advance based on the convective anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific (5° S 5° N, 130° 150° E) on intraseasonal time scale. The Niño 3.4 SSTA in June is a potential predictor for the peak TC season (July September) RI activity in the southeast quadrant of the western North Pacific (0 20° N, 140 180° E). The RI is an essential characteristic of category 4 and 5 hurricanes and super typhoons because

  19. Comparison of deterministic and stochastic methods to predict spatial variation of groundwater depth

    Adhikary, Partha Pratim; Dash, Ch. Jyotiprava

    2014-11-01

    Accurate and reliable interpolation of groundwater depth over a region is a pre-requisite for efficient planning and management of water resources. The performance of two deterministic, such as inverse distance weighting (IDW) and radial basis function (RBF) and two stochastic, i.e., ordinary kriging (OK) and universal kriging (UK) interpolation methods was compared to predict spatio-temporal variation of groundwater depth. Pre- and post-monsoon groundwater level data for the year 2006 from 110 different locations over Delhi were used. Analyses revealed that OK and UK methods outperformed the IDW method, and UK performed better than OK. RBF also performed better than IDW and OK. IDW and RBF methods slightly underestimated and both the kriging methods slightly overestimated the prediction of water table depth. OK, RBF and UK yielded 27.52, 27.66 and 51.11 % lower RMSE, 27.49, 35.34 and 51.28 % lower MRE, and 14.21, 16.12 and 21.36 % higher R 2 over IDW. The isodepth-area curves indicated the possibility of exploitation of groundwater up to a depth of 20 m.

  20. Prediction of ppm level electrical failure by using physical variation analysis

    Hou, Hsin-Ming; Kung, Ji-Fu; Hsu, Y.-B.; Yamazaki, Y.; Maruyama, Kotaro; Toyoshima, Yuya; Chen, Chu-en

    2016-03-01

    their spatial correlation distance. For local variations (LV) there is no correlation, whereas for global variations (GV) the correlation distance is very large [7]-[9]. This is the first time to certificate the validation of spatial distribution from the affordable bias contour big data fundamental infrastructures. And then apply statistical techniques to dig out the variation sources. The GV come from systematic issue, which could be compensated by adaptive LT condition or OPC correction. But LV comes from random issue, which being considered as intrinsic problem such as structure, material, tool capability… etc. In this paper studying, we can find out the advanced technology node SRAM contact CD local variation (LV) dominates in total variation, about 70%. It often plays significant in-line real time catching WP-DPMO role of the product yield loss, especially for wafer edge is the worst loss within wafer distribution and causes serious reliability concern. The major root cause of variations comes from the PR material induced burr defect (LV), the second one comes from GV enhanced wafer edge short opportunity, which being attributed to three factors, first one factor is wafer edge CD deliberated enlargement for yield improvement as shown in Fig. 10. Second factor is overlaps/AA shifts due to tool capability dealing with incoming wafer's war page issue and optical periphery layout dependent working pitch issue as shown in Fig. 9 (1)., the last factor comes from wafer edge burr enhanced by wafer edge larger Photo Resistance (PR) spin centrifugal force. After implementing KPIs such as GV related AA/CD indexes as shown in Fig. 9 (1) and 10, respectively, and LV related burr index as shown in Fig. 11., we can construct the parts per million (PPM) level short probability model via multi-variables regression, canonical correlation analysis and logistic transformation. The model provides prediction of PPM level electrical failure by using in-line real time physical

  1. Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with variational heteroscedastic Gaussian process and active learning

    Highlights: • A novel active learning model for the probabilistic electricity price forecasting. • Heteroscedastic Gaussian process that captures the local volatility of the electricity price. • Variational Bayesian learning that avoids over-fitting. • Active learning algorithm that reduces the computational efforts. - Abstract: Electricity price forecasting is essential for the market participants in their decision making. Nevertheless, the accuracy of such forecasting cannot be guaranteed due to the high variability of the price data. For this reason, in many cases, rather than merely point forecasting results, market participants are more interested in the probabilistic price forecasting results, i.e., the prediction intervals of the electricity price. Focusing on this issue, this paper proposes a new model for the probabilistic electricity price forecasting. This model is based on the active learning technique and the variational heteroscedastic Gaussian process (VHGP). It provides the heteroscedastic Gaussian prediction intervals, which effectively quantify the heteroscedastic uncertainties associated with the price data. Because the high computational effort of VHGP hinders its application to the large-scale electricity price forecasting tasks, we design an active learning algorithm to select a most informative training subset from the whole available training set. By constructing the forecasting model on this smaller subset, the computational efforts can be significantly reduced. In this way, the practical applicability of the proposed model is enhanced. The forecasting performance and the computational time of the proposed model are evaluated using the real-world electricity price data, which is obtained from the ANEM, PJM, and New England ISO

  2. Common Variation in the DOPA Decarboxylase (DDC) Gene and Human Striatal DDC Activity In Vivo.

    Eisenberg, Daniel P; Kohn, Philip D; Hegarty, Catherine E; Ianni, Angela M; Kolachana, Bhaskar; Gregory, Michael D; Masdeu, Joseph C; Berman, Karen F

    2016-08-01

    The synthesis of multiple amine neurotransmitters, such as dopamine, norepinephrine, serotonin, and trace amines, relies in part on DOPA decarboxylase (DDC, AADC), an enzyme that is required for normative neural operations. Because rare, loss-of-function mutations in the DDC gene result in severe enzymatic deficiency and devastating autonomic, motor, and cognitive impairment, DDC common genetic polymorphisms have been proposed as a source of more moderate, but clinically important, alterations in DDC function that may contribute to risk, course, or treatment response in complex, heritable neuropsychiatric illnesses. However, a direct link between common genetic variation in DDC and DDC activity in the living human brain has never been established. We therefore tested for this association by conducting extensive genotyping across the DDC gene in a large cohort of 120 healthy individuals, for whom DDC activity was then quantified with [(18)F]-FDOPA positron emission tomography (PET). The specific uptake constant, Ki, a measure of DDC activity, was estimated for striatal regions of interest and found to be predicted by one of five tested haplotypes, particularly in the ventral striatum. These data provide evidence for cis-acting, functional common polymorphisms in the DDC gene and support future work to determine whether such variation might meaningfully contribute to DDC-mediated neural processes relevant to neuropsychiatric illness and treatment. PMID:26924680

  3. A simple method to estimate radial velocity variations due to stellar activity using photometry

    Aigrain, S; Zucker, S

    2011-01-01

    We present a new, simple method to predict activity-induced radial velocity variations using high-precision time-series photometry. It is based on insights from a simple spot model, has only two free parameters (one of which can be estimated from the light curve) and does not require knowledge of the stellar rotation period. We test the method on simulated data and illustrate its performance by applying it to MOST/SOPHIE observations of the planet host-star HD189733, where it gives almost identical results to much more sophisticated, but highly degenerate models, and synthetic data for the Sun, where we demonstrate that it can reproduce variations well below the m/s level. We also apply it to Quarter 1 data for Kepler transit candidate host stars, where it can be used to estimate RV variations down to the 2-3m/s level, and show that RV amplitudes above that level may be expected for approximately two thirds of the candidates we examined.

  4. Predicting Physical Activity in Arab American School Children

    Martin, Jeffrey J.; McCaughtry, Nate; Shen, Bo

    2008-01-01

    Theoretically grounded research on the determinants of Arab American children's physical activity is virtually nonexistent. Thus, the purpose of our investigation was to evaluate the ability of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and social cognitive theory (SCT) to predict Arab American children's moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA).…

  5. Predicting spatial variations of tree species richness in tropical forests from high-resolution remote sensing.

    Fricker, Geoffrey A; Wolf, Jeffrey A; Saatchi, Sassan S; Gillespie, Thomas W

    2015-10-01

    There is an increasing interest in identifying theories, empirical data sets, and remote-sensing metrics that can quantify tropical forest alpha diversity at a landscape scale. Quantifying patterns of tree species richness in the field is time consuming, especially in regions with over 100 tree species/ha. We examine species richness in a 50-ha plot in Barro Colorado Island in Panama and test if biophysical measurements of canopy reflectance from high-resolution satellite imagery and detailed vertical forest structure and topography from light detection and ranging (lidar) are associated with species richness across four tree size classes (>1, 1-10, >10, and >20 cm dbh) and three spatial scales (1, 0.25, and 0.04 ha). We use the 2010 tree inventory, including 204,757 individuals belonging to 301 species of freestanding woody plants or 166 ± 1.5 species/ha (mean ± SE), to compare with remote-sensing data. All remote-sensing metrics became less correlated with species richness as spatial resolution decreased from 1.0 ha to 0.04 ha and tree size increased from 1 cm to 20 cm dbh. When all stems with dbh > 1 cm in 1-ha plots were compared to remote-sensing metrics, standard deviation in canopy reflectance explained 13% of the variance in species richness. The standard deviations of canopy height and the topographic wetness index (TWI) derived from lidar were the best metrics to explain the spatial variance in species richness (15% and 24%, respectively). Using multiple regression models, we made predictions of species richness across Barro Colorado Island (BCI) at the 1-ha spatial scale for different tree size classes. We predicted variation in tree species richness among all plants (adjusted r² = 0.35) and trees with dbh > 10 cm (adjusted r² = 0.25). However, the best model results were for understory trees and shrubs (dbh 1-10 cm) (adjusted r² = 0.52) that comprise the majority of species richness in tropical forests. Our results indicate that high

  6. PASS-GP: Predictive active set selection for Gaussian processes

    Henao, Ricardo; Winther, Ole

    We propose a new approximation method for Gaussian process (GP) learning for large data sets that combines inline active set selection with hyperparameter optimization. The predictive probability of the label is used for ranking the data points. We use the leave-one-out predictive probability...... the active set selection strategy and marginal likelihood optimization on the active set. We make extensive tests on the USPS and MNIST digit classification databases with and without incorporating invariances, demonstrating that we can get state-of-the-art results (e.g.0.86% error on MNIST) with...

  7. Statistical Evaluation of Efficiency and Possibility of Earthquake Predictions with Gravity Field Variation and its Analytic Signal in Western China

    Chen, Shi; Jiang, Changsheng; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-01-01

    This paper aimed at assessing gravity variations as precursors for earthquake prediction in the Tibet (Xizang)-Qinghai-Xinjiang-Sichuan Region, western China. We here take a statistical approach to evaluate efficiency and possibility of earthquake prediction. We used the most recent spatiotemporal gravity field variation datasets of 2002-2008 for the region that were provided by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONC). The datasets were space sparse and time discrete. In 2007-2010, 13 earthquakes (> M s 6.0) occurred in the region. The observed gravity variations have a statistical correlation with the occurrence of these earthquakes through the Molchan error diagram tests that lead to alarms over a good fraction of space-time. The results show that the prediction efficiency of amplitude of analytic signal of gravity variations is better than seismicity rate model and THD and absolute value of gravity variation, implying that gravity variations before earthquake may include precursory information of future large earthquakes.

  8. Predictive Duty Cycle Control of Three-Phase Active-Front-End Rectifiers

    Song, Zhanfeng; Tian, Yanjun; Chen, Wei;

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an on-line optimizing duty cycle control approach for three-phase active-front-end rectifiers, aiming to obtain the optimal control actions under different operating conditions. Similar to finite control set model predictive control strategy, a cost function previously...... constructed based on the desired control performance is adopted here, which is essential for the solving process of the optimizing problem. On the other hand, differently, with respect to the proposed strategy, duty cycle signals are optimized, instead of possible switching states. The determination...... of optimal duty cycles is made by predicting the effect of duty cycles on instantaneous current variations and minimizing the cost function. Due to the adoption of behavior prediction, the proposed controller inherits the excellent dynamic characteristics of predictive controllers. Moreover, the application...

  9. Reconstructed Total Solar Irradiance as a precursor for long-term solar activity predictions: a nonlinear dynamics approach

    Sello, S

    2012-01-01

    Total solar irradiance variations, about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum, are available from accurate satellite measurements since 1978 and thus do not provide useful information on longer-term secular trends. Recently, Krivova et al., 2007 reconstructed, using suitable models, the total solar irradiance from the end of the Maunder minimum to the present, based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the long historical record of the sunspot numbers using a simple but consistent physical model. There are many classes of proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior, based on different direct solar activity indices or on various valuable proxies. In particular, the precursor based methods, utilize a given proxy index to predict the future evolution of solar activity. Long-term time series of sunspot numbers, allow us to reliably predict the behavior of the next solar cycle, few years in advance. In previous papers we predicted...

  10. Nonlinear Predictive Control of Semi-Active Landing Gear System

    Wu, Dongsu; Gu, Hongbin; Liu, Hui

    2010-01-01

    The application of model predictive control and constructive nonlinear control methodology to semi-active landing gear system is studied in this paper. A unified shock absorber mathematical model incorporates solenoid valve’s electromechanical and magnetic dynamics is built to facilitate simulation and controller design. Then we propose a hierarchical control structure to deal with the high nonlinearity. A dual mode model predictive controller as an outer loop controller is developed to gen...

  11. Predicting Indian Summer Monsoon onset through variations of surface air temperature and relative humidity

    Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

    2015-04-01

    Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has an enormous effect on Indian agriculture, economy, and, as a consequence, life and prosperity of more than one billion people. Variability of the monsoonal rainfall and its onset have a huge influence on food production, agricultural planning and GDP of the country, which on 22% is determined by agriculture. Consequently, successful forecasting of the ISM onset is a big challenge and large efforts are being put into it. Here, we propose a novel approach for predictability of the ISM onset, based on critical transition theory. The ISM onset is defined as an abrupt transition from sporadious rainfall to spatially organized and temporally sustained rainfall. Taking this into account, we consider the ISM onset as is a critical transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon, which take place in time and also in space. It allows us to suggest that before the onset of ISM on the Indian subcontinent should be areas of critical behavior where indicators of the critical transitions can be detected through an analysis of observational data. First, we identify areas with such critical behavior. Second, we use detected areas as reference points for observation locations for the ISM onset prediction. Third, we derive a precursor for the ISM onset based on the analysis of surface air temperature and relative humidity variations in these reference points. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of this precursor on two observational data sets. The proposed approach allows to determine ISM onset in advance in 67% of all considered years. Our proposed approach is less effective during the anomalous years, which are associated with weak/strong monsoons, e.g. El-Nino, La-Nina or positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. The ISM onset is predicted for 23 out of 27 normal monsoon years (85%) during the past 6 decades. In the anomalous years, we show that time series analysis in both areas during the pre-monsoon period reveals indicators whether the

  12. Variational assimilation of land surface temperature observations for enhanced river flow predictions

    Ercolani, Giulia; Castelli, Fabio

    2016-04-01

    Data assimilation (DA) has the potential of improving hydrologic forecasts. However, many issues arise in case it is employed for spatially distributed hydrologic models that describes processes in various compartments: large dimensionality of the inverse problem, layers governed by different equations, non-linear and discontinuous model structure, complex topology of domains such as surface drainage and river network.On the other hand, integrated models offer the possibility of improving prediction of specific states by exploiting observations of quantities belonging to other compartments. In terms of forecasting river discharges, and hence for their enhancement, soil moisture is a key variable, since it determines the partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and surface runoff. However, soil moisture measurements are affected by issues that could prevent a successful DA and an actual improvement of discharge predictions.In-situ measurements suffer a dramatic spatial scarcity, while observations from satellite are barely accurate and provide spatial information only at a very coarse scale (around 40 km).Hydrologic models that explicitly represent land surface processes of coupled water and energy balance provide a valid alternative to direct DA of soil moisture.They gives the possibility of inferring soil moisture states through DA of remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST), whose measurements are more accurate and with a higher spatial resolution in respect to those of soil moisture. In this work we present the assimilation of LST data in a hydrologic model (Mobidic) that is part of the operational forecasting chain for the Arno river, central Italy, with the aim of improving flood predictions. Mobidic is a raster based, continuous in time and distributed in space hydrologic model, with coupled mass and energy balance at the surface and coupled groundwater and surface hydrology. The variational approach is adopted for DA, since it requires less

  13. Why Does Working Memory Capacity Predict Variation in Reading Comprehension? On the Influence of Mind Wandering and Executive Attention

    McVay, Jennifer C.; Kane, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted by the executive-attention theory of WMC (e.g., Engle & Kane, 2004). We used a latent-variable, structural-equation-model approach, testing skilled...

  14. Structure based activity prediction of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitors.

    de Jonge, Marc R; Koymans, Lucien M H; Vinkers, H Maarten; Daeyaert, Frits F D; Heeres, Jan; Lewi, Paul J; Janssen, Paul A J

    2005-03-24

    We have developed a fast and robust computational method for prediction of antiviral activity in automated de novo design of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitors. This is a structure-based approach that uses a linear relation between activity and interaction energy with discrete orientation sampling and with localized interaction energy terms. The localization allows for the analysis of mutations of the protein target and for the separation of inhibition and a specific binding to the enzyme. We apply the method to the prediction of pIC(50) of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitors. The model predicts the activity of an arbitrary compound with a q(2) of 0.681 and an average absolute error of 0.66 log value, and it is fast enough to be used in high-throughput computational applications. PMID:15771460

  15. Seasonal variation of CCN concentrations and aerosol activation properties in boreal forest

    S.-L. Sihto

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available As a part of EUCAARI activities, the annual cycle of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN concentrations and critical diameter for cloud droplet activation as a function of supersaturation were measured using a CCN counter and a HTDMA (hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer at SMEAR II station, Hyytiälä, Finland. The critical diameters for CCN activation were estimated from (i the measured CCN concentration and particle size distribution data, and (ii the hygroscopic growth factors by applying κ-Köhler theory, in both cases assuming an internally mixed aerosol. The critical diameters derived by these two methods were in good agreement with each other. The effect of new particle formation on the diurnal variation of CCN concentration and critical diameters was studied. New particle formation was observed to increase the CCN concentrations by 70–110%, depending on the supersaturation level. The average value for the κ-parameter determined from hygroscopicity measurements was κ = 0.18 and it predicted well the CCN activation in boreal forest conditions in Hyytiälä. The derived critical diameters and κ-parameter confirm earlier findings with other methods, that aerosol particles at CCN sizes in Hyytiälä are mostly organic, but contain also more hygrosopic, probably inorganic salts like ammonium sulphate, making the particles more CCN active than pure secondary organic aerosol.

  16. Does the ring species concept predict vocal variation in the crimson rosella, Platycercus elegans, complex?

    Ribot, Raoul F. H.; Berg, Mathew L.; Buchanan, Katherine L.; Komdeur, Jan; Joseph, Leo; Bennett, Andrew T. D.

    2009-01-01

    Vocal variation may be important in population divergence. We studied geographical variation in contact calls of parrots of the crimson rosella, Platycercus elegans, complex, which is characterized by striking geographical plumage coloration variation. This complex has long been considered a rare ex

  17. Prediction of interindividual variation in drug plasma levels in vivo from individual enzyme kinetic data and physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling

    Bogaards, J.J.P.; Hissink, E.M.; Briggs, M.; Weaver, R.; Jochemsen, R.; Jackson, P.; Bertrand, M.; Bladeren, P. van

    2000-01-01

    A strategy is presented to predict interindividual variation in drug plasma levels in vivo by the use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling and human in vitro metabolic parameters, obtained through the combined use of microsomes containing single cytochrome P450 enzymes and a human liver

  18. Stroke volume variation does not predict fluid responsiveness in patients with septic shock on pressure support ventilation

    Perner, A; Faber, T

    2006-01-01

    Stroke volume variation (SVV)--as measured by the pulse contour cardiac output (PiCCO) system--predicts the cardiac output response to a fluid challenge in patients on controlled ventilation. Whether this applies to patients on pressure support ventilation is unknown....

  19. Individual variation in fathers' testosterone reactivity to infant distress predicts parenting behaviors with their 1-year-old infants.

    Kuo, Patty X; Saini, Ekjyot K; Thomason, Elizabeth; Schultheiss, Oliver C; Gonzalez, Richard; Volling, Brenda L

    2016-04-01

    Positive father involvement is associated with positive child outcomes. There is great variation in fathers' involvement and fathering behaviors, and men's testosterone (T) has been proposed as a potential biological contributor to paternal involvement. Previous studies investigating testosterone changes in response to father-infant interactions or exposure to infant cues were unclear as to whether individual variation in T is predictive of fathering behavior. We show that individual variation in fathers' T reactivity to their infants during a challenging laboratory paradigm (Strange Situation) uniquely predicted fathers' positive parenting behaviors during a subsequent father-infant interaction, in addition to other psychosocial determinants of paternal involvement, such as dispositional empathy and marital quality. The findings have implications for understanding fathering behaviors and how fathers can contribute to their children's socioemotional development. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Dev Psychobiol 58: 303-314, 2016. PMID:26497119

  20. TH-A-9A-01: Active Optical Flow Model: Predicting Voxel-Level Dose Prediction in Spine SBRT

    Liu, J; Wu, Q.J.; Yin, F; Kirkpatrick, J; Cabrera, A [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Ge, Y [University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC (United States)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To predict voxel-level dose distribution and enable effective evaluation of cord dose sparing in spine SBRT. Methods: We present an active optical flow model (AOFM) to statistically describe cord dose variations and train a predictive model to represent correlations between AOFM and PTV contours. Thirty clinically accepted spine SBRT plans are evenly divided into training and testing datasets. The development of predictive model consists of 1) collecting a sequence of dose maps including PTV and OAR (spinal cord) as well as a set of associated PTV contours adjacent to OAR from the training dataset, 2) classifying data into five groups based on PTV's locations relative to OAR, two “Top”s, “Left”, “Right”, and “Bottom”, 3) randomly selecting a dose map as the reference in each group and applying rigid registration and optical flow deformation to match all other maps to the reference, 4) building AOFM by importing optical flow vectors and dose values into the principal component analysis (PCA), 5) applying another PCA to features of PTV and OAR contours to generate an active shape model (ASM), and 6) computing a linear regression model of correlations between AOFM and ASM.When predicting dose distribution of a new case in the testing dataset, the PTV is first assigned to a group based on its contour characteristics. Contour features are then transformed into ASM's principal coordinates of the selected group. Finally, voxel-level dose distribution is determined by mapping from the ASM space to the AOFM space using the predictive model. Results: The DVHs predicted by the AOFM-based model and those in clinical plans are comparable in training and testing datasets. At 2% volume the dose difference between predicted and clinical plans is 4.2±4.4% and 3.3±3.5% in the training and testing datasets, respectively. Conclusion: The AOFM is effective in predicting voxel-level dose distribution for spine SBRT. Partially supported by NIH

  1. Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

    Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

  2. The variational nodal method: some history and recent activity

    The variational nodal method combines spherical harmonics expansions in angle with hybrid finite element techniques in space to obtain multigroup transport response matrix algorithms applicable to a wide variety of reactor physics problems. This survey briefly recounts the method's history and reviews its capabilities. Two methods for obtaining discretized equations in the form of response matrices are compared. The first is that contained the widely used VARIANT code, while the second incorporates more recently developed integral transport techniques into the variational nodal framework. The two approaches are combined with a finite sub-element formulation to treat heterogeneous nodes. Results are presented for application to a deep penetration problem and to an OECD benchmark consisting of LWR Mox fuel assemblies. Ongoing work is discussed. (authors)

  3. Predicting Active Users' Personality Based on Micro-Blogging Behaviors

    Lin LI; Li, Ang; Hao, Bibo; Guan, Zengda; Zhu, Tingshao

    2014-01-01

    Because of its richness and availability, micro-blogging has become an ideal platform for conducting psychological research. In this paper, we proposed to predict active users' personality traits through micro-blogging behaviors. 547 Chinese active users of micro-blogging participated in this study. Their personality traits were measured by the Big Five Inventory, and digital records of micro-blogging behaviors were collected via web crawlers. After extracting 845 micro-blogging behavioral fe...

  4. Predicting the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 on the Basis of Single- and Bi-Variate Geomagnetic Precursor Methods

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2009-01-01

    Examined are single- and bi-variate geomagnetic precursors for predicting the maximum amplitude (RM) of a sunspot cycle several years in advance. The best single-variate fit is one based on the average of the ap index 36 mo prior to cycle minimum occurrence (E(Rm)), having a coefficient of correlation (r) equal to 0.97 and a standard error of estimate (se) equal to 9.3. Presuming cycle 24 not to be a statistical outlier and its minimum in March 2008, the fit suggests cycle 24 s RM to be about 69 +/- 20 (the 90% prediction interval). The weighted mean prediction of 11 statistically important single-variate fits is 116 +/- 34. The best bi-variate fit is one based on the maximum and minimum values of the 12-mma of the ap index; i.e., APM# and APm*, where # means the value post-E(RM) for the preceding cycle and * means the value in the vicinity of cycle minimum, having r = 0.98 and se = 8.2. It predicts cycle 24 s RM to be about 92 +/- 27. The weighted mean prediction of 22 statistically important bi-variate fits is 112 32. Thus, cycle 24's RM is expected to lie somewhere within the range of about 82 to 144. Also examined are the late-cycle 23 behaviors of geomagnetic indices and solar wind velocity in comparison to the mean behaviors of cycles 2023 and the geomagnetic indices of cycle 14 (RM = 64.2), the weakest sunspot cycle of the modern era.

  5. Effects of intraleaf variations in carbonic anhydrase activity and gas exchange on leaf C18OO isoflux in Zea mays.

    Affek, Hagit P; Krisch, Maria J; Yakir, Dan

    2006-01-01

    Variation in the C18OO content of atmospheric CO2 (delta18Oa) can be used to distinguish photosynthesis from soil respiration, which is based on carbonic anhydrase (CA)-catalyzed 18O exchange between CO2 and 18O-enriched leaf water (delta18Ow). Here we tested the hypothesis that mean leaf delta18Ow and assimilation rates can be used to estimate whole-leaf C18OO flux (isoflux), ignoring intraleaf variations in CA activity and gas exchange parameters. We observed variations in CA activity along the leaf (> 30% decline from the leaf center toward the leaf ends), which were only partially correlated to those in delta18Ow (7 to 21 per thousand), delta18O and delta13C of leaf organic matter (25 to 30 per thousand and -12.8 to -13.2 per thousand, respectively), and substomatal CO2 concentrations (intercellular CO2 concentrations, c(i), at the leaf center were approximately 40% of those at the leaf tip). The combined effect of these variations produced a leaf-integrated isoflux that was different from that predicted based on bulk leaf values. However, because of canceling effects among the influencing parameters, isoflux overestimations were only approximately 10%. Conversely, use of measured parameters from a leaf segment could produce large errors in predicting leaf-integrated C18OO fluxes. PMID:16411935

  6. Short communication: Genetic variation in estrus activity traits

    Løvendahl, P; Chagunda, M G G

    2009-01-01

    with a heritability of 0.18 ± 0.07. The heritability for the period of increased activity was small (0.02 to 0.08) and of similar magnitude as that for the level of activity (0.04 to 0.08). Compared with fertility traits based on artificial insemination field data, activity traits have higher heritability than...

  7. Thermospheric mass density variations during geomagnetic storms and a prediction model based on the merging electric field

    S.-Y. Ma

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available With the help of four years (2002–2005 of CHAMP accelerometer data we have investigated the dependence of low and mid latitude thermospheric density on the merging electric field, Em, during major magnetic storms. Altogether 30 intensive storm events (Dstmin<−100 nT are chosen for a statistical study. In order to achieve a good correlation Em is preconditioned. Contrary to general opinion, Em has to be applied without saturation effect in order to obtain good results for magnetic storms of all activity levels. The memory effect of the thermosphere is accounted for by a weighted integration of Em over the past 3 h. In addition, a lag time of the mass density response to solar wind input of 0 to 4.5 h depending on latitude and local time is considered. A linear model using the preconditioned Em as main controlling parameter for predicting mass density changes during magnetic storms is developed: ρ=0.5 Em + ρamb, where ρamb is based on the mean density during the quiet day before the storm. We show that this simple relation predicts all storm-induced mass density variations at CHAMP altitude fairly well especially if orbital averages are considered.

  8. Resting alpha activity predicts learning ability in alpha neurofeedback

    Wenya eNan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Individuals differ in their ability to learn how to regulate the alpha activity by neurofeedback. This study aimed to investigate whether the resting alpha activity is related to the learning ability of alpha enhancement in neurofeedback and could be used as a predictor. A total of 25 subjects performed 20 sessions of individualized alpha neurofeedback in order to learn how to enhance activity in the alpha frequency band. The learning ability was assessed by three indices respectively: the training parameter changes between two periods, within a short period and across the whole training time. It was found that the resting alpha amplitude measured before training had significant positive correlations with all learning indices and could be used as a predictor for the learning ability prediction. This finding would help the researchers in not only predicting the training efficacy in individuals but also gaining further insight into the mechanisms of alpha neurofeedback.

  9. Interest rate next-day variation prediction based on hybrid feedforward neural network, particle swarm optimization, and multiresolution techniques

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2016-02-01

    Multiresolution analysis techniques including continuous wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, and variational mode decomposition are tested in the context of interest rate next-day variation prediction. In particular, multiresolution analysis techniques are used to decompose interest rate actual variation and feedforward neural network for training and prediction. Particle swarm optimization technique is adopted to optimize its initial weights. For comparison purpose, autoregressive moving average model, random walk process and the naive model are used as main reference models. In order to show the feasibility of the presented hybrid models that combine multiresolution analysis techniques and feedforward neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization, we used a set of six illustrative interest rates; including Moody's seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield, Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield, 3-Month, 6-Month and 1-Year treasury bills, and effective federal fund rate. The forecasting results show that all multiresolution-based prediction systems outperform the conventional reference models on the criteria of mean absolute error, mean absolute deviation, and root mean-squared error. Therefore, it is advantageous to adopt hybrid multiresolution techniques and soft computing models to forecast interest rate daily variations as they provide good forecasting performance.

  10. Individual Variation in Sleep and Motor Activity in Rats

    Tang, Xiangdong; Yang, Linghui; Sanford, Larry D.

    2007-01-01

    We examined individual differences in sleep and motor activity across two consecutive days in rats. EEG and motor activity were recorded via telemetry in Wistar rats (n=29) for 48 h under well-habituated conditions. Rats were grouped based on sleep amounts and stability across days (short [SS, n=7], intermediate [IS, n=15] and long [LS, n=7] sleep) and comparisons were conducted to determine group differences for measures of sleep and motor activity. We found that correlations across recordin...

  11. Predicting active users' personality based on micro-blogging behaviors.

    Lin Li

    Full Text Available Because of its richness and availability, micro-blogging has become an ideal platform for conducting psychological research. In this paper, we proposed to predict active users' personality traits through micro-blogging behaviors. 547 Chinese active users of micro-blogging participated in this study. Their personality traits were measured by the Big Five Inventory, and digital records of micro-blogging behaviors were collected via web crawlers. After extracting 839 micro-blogging behavioral features, we first trained classification models utilizing Support Vector Machine (SVM, differentiating participants with high and low scores on each dimension of the Big Five Inventory [corrected]. The classification accuracy ranged from 84% to 92%. We also built regression models utilizing PaceRegression methods, predicting participants' scores on each dimension of the Big Five Inventory. The Pearson correlation coefficients between predicted scores and actual scores ranged from 0.48 to 0.54. Results indicated that active users' personality traits could be predicted by micro-blogging behaviors.

  12. Prediction of daytime variations of HO2 radical concentrations in the marine boundary layer using BP network

    2010-01-01

    A Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) was established to predict the daytime variations of HO 2 radical concentration observed in the field campaign RISFEX 2003 (RIShiri Fall Experiment 2003) conducted in September 2003 at Rishiri Island (45.07 N,141.12 E,and 35m asl) in the Sea of Japan.The initial weight matrices and bias vectors for the network were optimized by a bee evolutionary genetic algorithm (BEGA).It was found that the input variables sensitive to HO 2 variation were photolysis frequency of O 3 to O(1 D) (J(O 1 D)),a composite parameter defined as the ratio of HC to NO x reactivity towards OH radicals (Φ),and the total aerosol surface area (A).The predicted results are closely correlated with the experimental data with the coefficient of determination (R2) close to 1.In addition,the means and ranges of the predicted HO 2 concentration agree with the observed data with the correlation coefficient (R),the index of agreement (IA) and the fractional bias (FB) in the range of 0.84-0.93,0.88-0.95 and 14%-7%,respectively.This study demonstrates that BPNN is a potential tool to predict the daytime variations of HO 2 radical concentrations in the marine boundary layer (MBL).

  13. Predicting activity approach based on new atoms similarity kernel function.

    Abu El-Atta, Ahmed H; Moussa, M I; Hassanien, Aboul Ella

    2015-07-01

    Drug design is a high cost and long term process. To reduce time and costs for drugs discoveries, new techniques are needed. Chemoinformatics field implements the informational techniques and computer science like machine learning and graph theory to discover the chemical compounds properties, such as toxicity or biological activity. This is done through analyzing their molecular structure (molecular graph). To overcome this problem there is an increasing need for algorithms to analyze and classify graph data to predict the activity of molecules. Kernels methods provide a powerful framework which combines machine learning with graph theory techniques. These kernels methods have led to impressive performance results in many several chemoinformatics problems like biological activity prediction. This paper presents a new approach based on kernel functions to solve activity prediction problem for chemical compounds. First we encode all atoms depending on their neighbors then we use these codes to find a relationship between those atoms each other. Then we use relation between different atoms to find similarity between chemical compounds. The proposed approach was compared with many other classification methods and the results show competitive accuracy with these methods. PMID:26117822

  14. Predictive Active Set Selection Methods for Gaussian Processes

    Henao, Ricardo; Winther, Ole

    2012-01-01

    We propose an active set selection framework for Gaussian process classification for cases when the dataset is large enough to render its inference prohibitive. Our scheme consists of a two step alternating procedure of active set update rules and hyperparameter optimization based upon marginal...... active set parameters that directly control its complexity. We also provide both theoretical and empirical support for our active set selection strategy being a good approximation of a full Gaussian process classifier. Our extensive experiments show that our approach can compete with state...... likelihood maximization. The active set update rules rely on the ability of the predictive distributions of a Gaussian process classifier to estimate the relative contribution of a datapoint when being either included or removed from the model. This means that we can use it to include points with potentially...

  15. Modeling of the diurnal variation of the maximum applicable frequency for radio-communication on short waves considering solar activity

    Method of modeling of the diurnal variation of parameter maximum applicable frequency (MAF) has been developed. The method has been tested by the use of the data of Ionospheric Digital Database of the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), Boulder, Colorado, USA, namely, the data of Julruh - (φ=54,5°N). The type of the parameter dependence on solar activity has been studied and a model of diurnal variation of the median values in January has been made. The model is polynomial dependent on F10,7 allowing prediction of MAF. The model is made up according to data of 1958-1986 period. Prognosis was made for the next four years. Error is less than 15% for any hour and it is 10% less in the daytime. The method permits to make models for any point of the Earth (where the measurements are carried out during several cycles of solar activity) for each month. (author)

  16. Mathematical models for predicting indoor air quality from smoking activity.

    Ott, W R

    1999-01-01

    Much progress has been made over four decades in developing, testing, and evaluating the performance of mathematical models for predicting pollutant concentrations from smoking in indoor settings. Although largely overlooked by the regulatory community, these models provide regulators and risk assessors with practical tools for quantitatively estimating the exposure level that people receive indoors for a given level of smoking activity. This article reviews the development of the mass balanc...

  17. Resource assurance predicts specialist and generalist bee activity in drought

    Minckley, Robert L.; Roulston, T'ai H.; Williams, Neal M.

    2013-01-01

    Many short-lived desert organisms remain in diapause during drought. Theoretically, the cues desert species use to continue diapause through drought should differ depending on the availability of critical resources, but the unpredictability and infrequent occurrence of climate extremes and reduced insect activity during such events make empirical tests of this prediction difficult. An intensive study of a diverse bee–plant community through a drought event found that bee specialists of a drou...

  18. Platelet Serotonin Transporter Function Predicts Default-Mode Network Activity

    Christian Scharinger; Ulrich Rabl; Christian H. Kasess; Meyer, Bernhard M.; Tina Hofmaier; Kersten Diers; Lucie Bartova; Gerald Pail; Wolfgang Huf; Zeljko Uzelac; Beate Hartinger; Klaudius Kalcher; Thomas Perkmann; Helmuth Haslacher; Andreas Meyer-Lindenberg

    2014-01-01

    Background The serotonin transporter (5-HTT) is abundantly expressed in humans by the serotonin transporter gene SLC6A4 and removes serotonin (5-HT) from extracellular space. A blood-brain relationship between platelet and synaptosomal 5-HT reuptake has been suggested, but it is unknown today, if platelet 5-HT uptake can predict neural activation of human brain networks that are known to be under serotonergic influence. Methods A functional magnetic resonance study was performed in 48 healthy...

  19. Neural activity during encoding predicts false memories created by misinformation

    Okado, Yoko; Stark, Craig E.L.

    2005-01-01

    False memories are often demonstrated using the misinformation paradigm, in which a person's recollection of a witnessed event is altered after exposure to misinformation about the event. The neural basis of this phenomenon, however, remains unknown. We used fMRI to investigate encoding processes during the viewing of an event and misinformation to see whether neural activity during either encoding phase could predict what would be remembered. fMRI data were collected as participants studied ...

  20. Validation of Predicted Diurnal and Semi-diurnal Tidal Variations in Polar Motion with GPS-based Observations

    Desai, Shailen; Sibois, Aurore

    2016-04-01

    In this paper we reconcile predicted diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal variations in polar motion using observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS) space geodetic technique. We demonstrate closure at the level of less than 4 microarcseconds of the budget between our adopted models for predicted polar motion tidal variations and our GPS-based observations. Our GPS-based observations are composed of a 10-year continuous time series of polar motion estimates with 15-minute temporal resolution. Our adopted models account for the contribution from the relative angular momentum of the ocean tides and so-called libration. We compute predicted ocean tide contributions using a modern hydrodynamic model of tide heights and currents that assimilates satellite altimetry data. We use the model for libration effects provided by the current IERS conventions, as taken from Mathews and Bretagnon [2003]. We also show that the currently recommended models from the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) conventions do not close the budget with respect to our GPS-based observations. In particular, residual diurnal and semidiurnal tidal variations in polar motion are observed when using the current IERS conventions for ocean tide effects and libration. We infer that the root source for these residual tidal variations is errors in the 20-year old model for ocean tide effects from the IERS conventions, and that predicted ocean tide effects from a modern model mitigates these errors. The noise floor of our high-rate GPS-based times series of polar motion is less than 4 microarcseconds in the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal frequency bands, and is well below the level of the predicted effects of both the ocean tide and libration effects. Diurnal and semidiurnal tidal variations in polar motion are predominantly caused by the ocean tides, which have amplitudes of a few hundred microarcseconds. Libration, namely the effect of external luni-solar torques acting on the triaxial Earth

  1. The health of a nation predicts their mate preferences: cross-cultural variation in women's preferences for masculinized male faces

    DeBruine, Lisa M.; Jones, Benedict C.; Crawford, John R.; Welling, Lisa L. M.; Little, Anthony C.

    2010-01-01

    Recent formulations of sexual selection theory emphasize how mate choice can be affected by environmental factors, such as predation risk and resource quality. Women vary greatly in the extent to which they prefer male masculinity and this variation is hypothesized to reflect differences in how women resolve the trade-off between the costs (e.g. low investment) and benefits (e.g. healthy offspring) associated with choosing a masculine partner. A strong prediction of this trade-off theory is t...

  2. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  3. Prefrontal activity predicts monkeys' decisions during an auditory category task

    Jung Hoon Lee

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The neural correlates that relate auditory categorization to aspects of goal-directed behavior, such as decision-making, are not well understood. Since the prefrontal cortex plays an important role in executive function and the categorization of auditory objects, we hypothesized that neural activity in the prefrontal cortex (PFC should predict an animal's behavioral reports (decisions during a category task. To test this hypothesis, we tested PFC activity that was recorded while monkeys categorized human spoken words (Russ et al., 2008b. We found that activity in the ventrolateral PFC, on average, correlated best with the monkeys' choices than with the auditory stimuli. This finding demonstrates a direct link between PFC activity and behavioral choices during a non-spatial auditory task.

  4. Variation in activity of pepsin extracted from buffalo stomach mucosa

    Pepsin was extracted from the buffalo's mucosa in an acidic medium by incubating at 40 degree C for 48 h and dried in an air blanket at 50 degree C. Conditions for the maximum yield M pepsin were optimized. Changes in pH, temperature and incubation time affect the yield of pepsin, It has been noted that the time of the year in which extractions were made under optimized conditions was an important factor which affected the yield as well as activity of pepsin. Studies showed that maximum yield 11.5% was in February 2009 and minimum 10.3% in May 2009. It was further studied that the activity of the pepsin extracted in February was higher i.e 110 U/mg as compared to the activity of the enzyme extracted during the month of May which was 102.6 U/mg. The purpose of the study was to consider the conditions of the slaughter houses to attain maximum yield of pepsin with maximum activity. (author)

  5. Variation in Soil Enzyme Activities in a Temperate Agroforestry Watershed

    Integration of agroforestry and grass buffers into row crop watersheds improves overall environmental quality, including soil quality. The objective of this study was to examine management and landscape effects on soil carbon, soil nitrogen, microbial diversity, enzyme activity, and DNA concentrati...

  6. Variation in sexual dimorphism and assortative mating do not predict genetic divergence in the sexually dimorphic Goodeid fish Girardinichthys multiradiatus

    C.MAC(I)AS GARCIA; G SMITH; C.GONZ(A)LEZ ZUARTH; J.A.GRAVES; M.G.RITCHIE

    2012-01-01

    Sexual dimorphism is often used as a proxy for the intensity of sexual selection in comparative studies of sexual selection and diversification.The Mexican Goodeinae are a group of livebearing freshwater fishes with large variation between species in sexual dimorphism in body shape.Previously we found an association between variation in morphological sexual dimorphism between species and the amount of gene flow within populations in the Goodeinae.Here we have examined if morphological differentiation within a single dimorphic species is related to assortative mating or gene flow between populations.In the Amarillo fish Girardinichthys multiradiatus studies have shown that exaggerated male fins are targets of female preferences.We find that populations of the species differ in the level of sexual dimorphism displayed due to faster evolution of differences in male than female morphology.However,this does not predict variation in assortative mating tests in the laboratory; in fact differences in male morphology are negatively correlated with assortative mating.Microsatellite markers reveal significant genetic differences between populations.However,gene flow is not predicted by either morphological differences or assortative mating.Rather,it demonstrates a pattern of isolation by distance with greater differentiation between watersheds.We discuss the caveats of predicting behavioural and genetic divergence from so-called proxies of sexual selection.

  7. Variation in sexual dimorphism and assortative mating do not predict genetic divergence in the sexually dimorphic Goodeid fish Girardinichthys multiradiatus

    C.MACÍAS GARCIA, G.SMITH, C.GONZÁLEZ ZUARTH, J.A. GRAVES,M.G.RITCHIE

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Sexual dimorphism is often used as a proxy for the intensity of sexual selection in comparative studies of sexual selection and diversification. The Mexican Goodeinae are a group of livebearing freshwater fishes with large variation between species in sexual dimorphism in body shape. Previously we found an association between variation in morphological sexual dimorphism between species and the amount of gene flow within populations in the Goodeinae. Here we have examined if morphological differentiation within a single dimorphic species is related to assortative mating or gene flow between populations. In the Amarillo fish Girardinichthys multiradiatus studies have shown that exaggerated male fins are targets of female preferences. We find that populations of the species differ in the level of sexual dimorphism displayed due to faster evolution of differences in male than female morphology. However, this does not predict variation in assortative mating tests in the laboratory; in fact differences in male morphology are negatively correlated with assortative mating. Microsatellite markers reveal significant genetic differences between populations. However, gene flow is not predicted by either morphological differences or assortative mating. Rather, it demonstrates a pattern of isolation by distance with greater differentiation between watersheds. We discuss the caveats of predicting behavioural and genetic divergence from so-called proxies of sexual selection [Current Zoology 58 (3: 437-449, 2012].

  8. Daily and seasonal variations of outdoor alpha-activity concentration in Salzburg city/Austria

    Long-term continuous measurements of the atmospheric outdoor alpha-activity concentration have been performed by using a radioaerosol-monitor, roof-mounted 20 m above ground. The alpha-activity concentration was identified to be predominantly attributed to radon progeny. The total alpha-activity covers a range of two orders of magnitude. Three different components of variations could be identified with regard to temporal variations: Short-term diurnal component (daily variation), mid-term component (days to weeks) and long-term component (seasonal variation). Continuous measurements have been recorded since the end of 1993. The results of continuous measurements of the outdoor alpha-activity concentration over a time span from January 1994 to June 1995 are presented. (author)

  9. Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

    Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J., Jr.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

  10. Generating Novel Allelic Variation Through Activator Insertional Mutagenesis in Maize

    Bai, Ling; Singh, Manjit; Pitt, Lauren; Sweeney, Meredith; Brutnell, Thomas P.

    2007-01-01

    The maize transposable element Activator (Ac) has been exploited as an insertional mutagen to disrupt, clone, and characterize genes in a number of plant species. To develop an Ac-based mutagenesis platform for maize, a large-scale mutagenesis was conducted targeting the pink scutellum1 locus. We selected 1092 Ac transposition events from a closely linked donor Ac, resulting in the recovery of 17 novel ps1 alleles. Multiple phenotypic classes were identified corresponding to Ac insertions in ...

  11. Testing a four-dimensional variational data assimilation method using an improved intermediate coupled model for ENSO analysis and prediction

    Gao, Chuan; Wu, Xinrong; Zhang, Rong-Hua

    2016-07-01

    A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The "observation" of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a "truth" model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.

  12. Linear filters as a method of real-time prediction of geomagnetic activity

    Important factors controlling geomagnetic activity include the solar wind velocity, the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the field orientation. Because these quantities change so much in transit through the solar wind, real-time monitoring immediately upstream of the earth provides the best input for any technique of real-time prediction. One such technique is linear prediction filtering which utilizes past histories of the input and output of a linear system to create a time-invariant filter characterizing the system. Problems of nonlinearity or temporal changes of the system can be handled by appropriate choice of input parameters and piecewise approximation in various ranges of the input. We have created prediction filters for all the standard magnetic indices and tested their efficiency. The filters show that the initial response of the magnetosphere to a southward turning of the IMF peaks in 20 minutes and then again in 55 minutes. After a northward turning, auroral zone indices and the midlatitude ASYM index return to background within 2 hours, while Dst decays exponentially with a time constant of about 8 hours. This paper describes a simple, real-time system utilizing these filters which could predict a substantial fraction of the variation in magnetic activity indices 20 to 50 minutes in advance

  13. Predicting flow at work: investigating the activities and job characteristics that predict flow states at work.

    Nielsen, Karina; Cleal, Bryan

    2010-04-01

    Flow (a state of consciousness where people become totally immersed in an activity and enjoy it intensely) has been identified as a desirable state with positive effects for employee well-being and innovation at work. Flow has been studied using both questionnaires and Experience Sampling Method (ESM). In this study, we used a newly developed 9-item flow scale in an ESM study combined with a questionnaire to examine the predictors of flow at two levels: the activities (brainstorming, planning, problem solving and evaluation) associated with transient flow states and the more stable job characteristics (role clarity, influence and cognitive demands). Participants were 58 line managers from two companies in Denmark; a private accountancy firm and a public elder care organization. We found that line managers in elder care experienced flow more often than accountancy line managers, and activities such as planning, problem solving, and evaluation predicted transient flow states. The more stable job characteristics included in this study were not, however, found to predict flow at work. PMID:20364915

  14. Prediction of Antifungal Activity of Gemini Imidazolium Compounds

    Łukasz Pałkowski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The progress of antimicrobial therapy contributes to the development of strains of fungi resistant to antimicrobial drugs. Since cationic surfactants have been described as good antifungals, we present a SAR study of a novel homologous series of 140 bis-quaternary imidazolium chlorides and analyze them with respect to their biological activity against Candida albicans as one of the major opportunistic pathogens causing a wide spectrum of diseases in human beings. We characterize a set of features of these compounds, concerning their structure, molecular descriptors, and surface active properties. SAR study was conducted with the help of the Dominance-Based Rough Set Approach (DRSA, which involves identification of relevant features and relevant combinations of features being in strong relationship with a high antifungal activity of the compounds. The SAR study shows, moreover, that the antifungal activity is dependent on the type of substituents and their position at the chloride moiety, as well as on the surface active properties of the compounds. We also show that molecular descriptors MlogP, HOMO-LUMO gap, total structure connectivity index, and Wiener index may be useful in prediction of antifungal activity of new chemical compounds.

  15. γ- Irradiation Effect: Variation of Photosynthetic Activity of Euglena

    2002-01-01

    Objective To study the effects of gamma-ray irradiation on carbon fixation (Specific production rate: SPR), CO2 utilization efficiency (CUE) and electron transfer rate (ETR) in the photosynthetic flagellate Euglena gracilis strain Z in a dose-response dependent manner. Methods Euglena cells were cultured in an inorganic nutrient medium containing ammonium chloride or proteose peptone. Cells were exposed to gamma-ray at 5 doses (0, 100, 250, 350, 500 Gy for water). Five days after irradiation, three photosynthetic activities were measured. SPR, which is a carbon uptake rate per unit carbon mass, was determined by 13C tracer methodology. CUE was evaluated using a relation of carbon isotope fractionation in Calvin cycle. ETR in photosystem II (PS II) was measured by a chlorophyll fluorescence analysis. Results Even at a dose of 500 Gy, 80 % of ETR of the non-irradiated control (0 Gy) was sustained, while SPR and CUE were about half the level in the non-irradiated control at 500 Gy. Furthermore, the dose response of ETR was considerably different from the others. Conclusion Our findings suggest that not only PS II but also the Calvin cycle in the photosynthetic system is affected by gamma ray irradiation.

  16. The effects of goal variation on adult physical activity behaviour.

    Moon, Dal-Hyun; Yun, Joonkoo; McNamee, Jeff

    2016-10-01

    The purposes of this study were to examine the effects of varying levels of goals on increasing daily steps and the frequency of goal achievement among middle-aged adults. Ninety-six adults participated in a randomised control study. Participants were randomly assigned to five different step goal groups: (1) Easy (n = 19), (2) Medium (n = 19), (3) Difficult (n = 19), (4) Do-your-best (n = 19), and (5) No goal (n = 20) based on previous research. The participants wore a pedometer and were asked to reach a pre-established goal during the experimental period. In order to examine the effectiveness of the goal difficulty, (a) an average number of steps taken by different goal conditions and (b) the number of days meeting the assigned goal were tested. A one-way ANCOVA revealed significant step count differences among goal groups. Post hoc analyses indicated that the change in step count in both the Medium and Difficult goal groups was significantly greater than the remaining groups. However, there was no significant difference between the medium and difficult goal conditions. In addition, a one-way ANOVA indicated that there were no significant differences in the frequency of goal achievement among the Easy, Medium, and Difficult goal groups. Results suggest that when promoting physical activity through increasing step counts, researchers and clinicians should design goals that are specific and challenging. PMID:26860430

  17. Melanopsin Gene Variations Interact With Season to Predict Sleep Onset and Chronotype

    Roecklein, Kathryn A.; Wong, Patricia M.; Franzen, Peter L.; HASLER, BRANT P.; Wood-Vasey, W. Michael; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit L.; Miller, Megan A.; Kepreos, Kyle M.; Ferrell, Robert E.; Manuck, Stephen B.

    2012-01-01

    The human melanopsin gene has been reported to mediate risk for seasonal affective disorder (SAD), which is hypothesized to be caused by decreased photic input during winter when light levels fall below threshold, resulting in differences in circadian phase and/or sleep. However, it is unclear if melanopsin increases risk of SAD by causing differences in sleep or circadian phase, or if those differences are symptoms of the mood disorder. To determine if melanopsin sequence variations are asso...

  18. Scarcity of female mates predicts regional variation in men's and women's sociosexual orientation across US states

    Kandrik, Michal; Jones, Benedict C.; DeBruine, Lisa M

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies have linked regional variation in willingness to engage in uncommitted sexual relationships (i.e., sociosexual orientation) to many different socio-ecological measures, such as adult sex ratio, life expectancy, and gross domestic product. However, these studies share a number of potentially serious limitations, including reliance on a single dataset of responses aggregated by country and a failure to properly consider intercorrelations among different socio-ecological measure...

  19. Oxytocin receptor gene variation predicts empathic concern and autonomic arousal while perceiving harm to others

    Karen E. Smith; Porges, Eric C.; Norman, Greg J.; Connelly, Jessica J.; Decety, Jean

    2013-01-01

    Recent research indicates that the neuropeptide oxytocin and the gene for the oxytocin receptor (OXTR) have been implicated in the modulation of various social behaviors, including those related to empathy and sensitivity to others. In this study, we examine the hypothesis that genetic variation in OXTR is associated with autonomic reactions when perceiving others in distress. We also explore the possibility that individual disposition in empathic concern would differ by OXTR genotype. To add...

  20. Analysis of Variation Characters and Prediction Model of Soil Temperature in Solar Greenhouse

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to study the soil temperature changes and its forecast model in greenhouse by solar heat. [Method] Annual and daily variation characters of soil temperature were analyzed in this paper by using the observation data of air temperature out of solar greenhouse and different layers soil temperature in it. The soil temperature (daily maximum, daily minimum and daily mean) forecasting models were also studied. Simulation and test were conducted to the forecast model of soil temperature in ...

  1. Variations in solar and geomagnetic activity with periods near to 1.3 year

    Střeštík, Jaroslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 2 (2009), s. 152-156. ISSN 1896-1517 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA300120608 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : transyear variation * geomagnetic activity * solar activity * wavelet analysis Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

  2. The sequential structure of brain activation predicts skill.

    Anderson, John R; Bothell, Daniel; Fincham, Jon M; Moon, Jungaa

    2016-01-29

    In an fMRI study, participants were trained to play a complex video game. They were scanned early and then again after substantial practice. While better players showed greater activation in one region (right dorsal striatum) their relative skill was better diagnosed by considering the sequential structure of whole brain activation. Using a cognitive model that played this game, we extracted a characterization of the mental states that are involved in playing a game and the statistical structure of the transitions among these states. There was a strong correspondence between this measure of sequential structure and the skill of different players. Using multi-voxel pattern analysis, it was possible to recognize, with relatively high accuracy, the cognitive states participants were in during particular scans. We used the sequential structure of these activation-recognized states to predict the skill of individual players. These findings indicate that important features about information-processing strategies can be identified from a model-based analysis of the sequential structure of brain activation. PMID:26707716

  3. Uncertainties in modeling, prediction, and actions in response to variations in patient geometric models

    Kashani, Rojano

    External beam radiation therapy is an effective method for treating cancer in many body sites. Highly conformal plans can be created to provide good target coverage while sparing the surrounding normal tissue. A fundamental problem in delivering these conformal plans is the inter- and intra-fractional variations in patient geometry, which result in deviation of the delivered dose from the planned dose, thus reducing the probability of tumor control or increasing the risk of normal tissue toxicity. To address this problem, various motion management strategies have been implemented in the clinic, and several others are under investigation. While the technique employed for management of geometric variation can change depending on the type and source of the variation (set up error, respiratory-induced motion and deformation, or tumor shrinkage or tissue loss in response to treatment) as well as other clinical factors, all these techniques have one thing in common and that is the fact that they are not perfect. This work investigates the uncertainties associated with the measurement and management of motion and deformation, and evaluates the impact of these uncertainties on the accuracy of geometry and dose tracking for treatment adaptation. This research quantified the magnitude and distribution of error in deformable image registration for aligning image volumes acquired at different breathing states. It further explored the potential of reducing the registration error in deforming lung geometry, by applying a method from multivariate statistics (principal component analysis) to identify the significant modes of variation in this geometry. It also demonstrated the potential for tracking respiratory induced deformation in various regions in the lung, using a few surrogates such as implanted markers. In addition to the evaluation of registration error for thoracic geometry affected by respiratory motion, this work also investigates the accuracy of deformable image

  4. Climate variability and change on the Mongolian Plateau: historical variation and future predictions

    Jiang, Liguang; Yao, Zhijun; Huang, He Qing

    2016-01-01

    In this study, variations in temperature and precipitation over the Mongolian Plateau are analyzed using Climatic Research Unit monthly observations from 1911 to 2010. In addition, the climatology regime of future climate projections is presented using 16 state-of-the-art global climate models.......5, respectively, and the increases in mean temperature are 3.5 and 7.1 degrees C. The spatial patterns are more complicated. These results suggest that the Mongolian Plateau will experience significant climate warming and accompanying increased precipitation. Adaptation strategies are needed to improve the...

  5. Genetic variation and activity of the renin-angiotensin system and severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes

    Pedersen-Bjergaard, U.; Dhamrait, S.S.; Sethi, A.A.;

    2008-01-01

    . lower quartile 2.9, 95% CI, 1.3-6.2), and homo- or hemizygosity for the A-allele of the X chromosome-located AT2R 1675G/A polymorphism (RR vs. noncarriers 2.5, 95% CI, 1.4-5.0). The three risk factors contributed independently to prediction of severe hypoglycemia. A backward multiple regression analysis......BACKGROUND: The deletion-allele of the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) gene and elevated ACE activity are associated with increased risk of severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes. We explored whether genetic and phenotypic variations in other components of the renin-angiotensin system are...... angiotensinogen concentration and serum ACE activity. RESULTS: Three risk factors for severe hypoglycemia were identified: plasma angiotensinogen concentration in the upper quartile (relative rate [RR] vs. lower quartile 3.1, 95% confidence interval [CI,] 1.4-6.8), serum ACE activity in the upper quartile (RR vs...

  6. Predicting physical activity intentions using a goal perspectives approach: a study of Finnish youth.

    Lintunen, T; Valkonen, A; Leskinen, E; Biddle, S J

    1999-12-01

    Physical activity intentions were studied in 12- to 16-year-old Finnish girls (n= 186) and boys (n=215). Theoretical predictions were used to establish a model that was then tested separately for each sex using path analysis. Firstly, it was hypothesised that malleable conceptions of the nature of sport ability positively influence enjoyment in physical activity and intentions to participate in physical activity, mediated by a task-oriented achievement goal independent of variations in perceptions of competence. Secondly, it was hypothesised that fixed conceptions of the nature of ability decrease enjoyment in physical activity and intentions to participate, mediated by an ego-oriented achievement goal and by perceived competence. The modified models were shown to fit the data. Overall, the results showed that 63% (boys) and 45% (girls) of the variance in intentions was explained by the model. The motivational importance of task orientation and, among the boys, perceived physical competence was confirmed with their direct prediction of intentions. PMID:10606099

  7. Methane production and diurnal variation measured in dairy cows and predicted from fermentation pattern and nutrient or carbon flow

    Brask, Maike; Weisbjerg, Martin Riis; Hellwing, Anne Louise Frydendahl;

    2015-01-01

    . Interactions between feed components, VFA absorption rates and variation between animals seemed to be factors that were complicating the accurate prediction of CH(4). Using a ruminal carbon balance appeared to predict CH(4) production just as well as calculations based on rumen digestion of individual....... In the present study, a data set was compiled from the results of three intensive respiration chamber trials with lactating rumen and intestinal fistulated Holstein cows, including measurements of rumen and intestinal digestion, rumen fermentation parameters and CH(4) production. Two approaches were...... for the deviance. Dietary carbohydrate composition and rumen carbohydrate digestion were the main sources of inaccuracies for both models. Furthermore, differences were related to rumen ammonia concentration with the DOM model and to rumen pH and dietary fat with the DCARB model. Adding these...

  8. Recent and Past Musical Activity Predicts Cognitive Aging Variability: Direct Comparison with Leisure Activities

    Brenda eHanna-Pladdy

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Studies evaluating the impact of modifiable lifestyle factors on cognition offer potential insights into sources of cognitive aging variability. Recently, we reported an association between extent of musical instrumental practice throughout the life span (greater than 10 years on preserved cognitive functioning in advanced age . These findings raise the question of whether there are training-induced brain changes in musicians that can transfer to nonmusical cognitive abilities to allow for compensation of age-related cognitive declines. However, because of the relationship between engagement in lifestyle activities and preserved cognition, it remains unclear whether these findings are specifically driven by musical training or the types of individuals likely to engage in greater activities in general. The current study examined the type of leisure activity (musical versus other as well as the timing of engagement (age of acquisition, past versus recent in predictive models of successful cognitive aging. Seventy age and education matched older musicians (> 10 years and nonmusicians (ages 59-80 were evaluated on neuropsychological tests and life-style activities (AAP. Partition analyses were conducted on significant cognitive measures to explain performance variance in musicians. Musicians scored higher on tests of phonemic fluency, verbal immediate recall, judgment of line orientation (JLO, and Letter Number Sequencing (LNS, but not the AAP. The first partition analysis revealed education best predicted JLO in musicians, followed by recent musical engagement which offset low education. In the second partition analysis, early age of musical acquisition (< 9 years predicted enhanced LNS in musicians, while analyses for AAP, verbal recall and fluency were not predictive. Recent and past musical activity, but not leisure activity, predicted variability across verbal and visuospatial domains in aging. Early musical acquisition predicted auditory

  9. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki;

    2013-01-01

    attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years(2......-4). Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33 of the harvested area...... of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop-rice and wheat yields were the most...

  10. Common polygenic variation can predict risk of Alzheimer’s disease

    Escott-Price, Valentina; Sims, Rebecca; Bannister, Christian; Harold, Denise; Vronskaya, Maria; Majounie, Elisa; Badarinarayan, Nandini; Morgan, Kevin; Passmore, Peter; Holmes, Clive; Powell, John; Lovestone, Simon; Brayne, Carol; Gill, Michael; Mead, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Background: The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and the accuracy of AD prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. Methods: This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17,008 cases and 37,154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP). Polygen...

  11. How to evaluate performance of prediction methods? Measures and their interpretation in variation effect analysis

    Vihinen Mauno

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Prediction methods are increasingly used in biosciences to forecast diverse features and characteristics. Binary two-state classifiers are the most common applications. They are usually based on machine learning approaches. For the end user it is often problematic to evaluate the true performance and applicability of computational tools as some knowledge about computer science and statistics would be needed. Results Instructions are given on how to interpret and compare me...

  12. Semiannual and UT variation of geomagnetic activity as history of solar-terrestrial physics

    Complete text of publication follows. There are the classical semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity (GA), first recognized by Sabine (1856) and the Universal Time (UT) variation found by McIntosh (1959). Explanation of the semiannual and UT variation of (GA) presents history of development of the solar-terrestrial physics and is a good test for any modern model of interaction taking into account mutual directions of the solar wind velocity (V), interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and geomagnetic moment (M). It should be noted that the semiannual and UT variation of GA has not explanation in terms of existing mechanisms for now. In particular, the explanation for the dipole tilt modulation of observed activity is still obscure. Axial hypothesis (Bartels, 1932) must be discarded because of its discordance with observations (Swalgaard, 1977). However, influence of the dipole tilt on GA has theoretical ground in terms of quasi-viscous interaction and Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (Boller and Stolov, 1970). Russell and McPherron (RM), 1973 suggested that the solar magnetic fields lying in the solar equatorial plane have maxima of southward Bz component in the GSM c. s. near maxima of GA. Reconnection as a physical paradigm, as applied to the phenomena of solar-terrestrial physics, and the 'RM' mechanism are criticized simultaneously at present (Akasofu, 1998). The UT variations for different mechanisms must be taken into account as they help discriminate between mechanisms: the 'axial' mechanism has no UT variation, the 'RM' mechanism has the wrong UT variation, and so on. All magnetic indices show clear semiannual variations near equinoxes and distorted UT variation due to uneven station distribution. We present all history of the problem. At last based on our results we suggest a possible explanation of semiannual and UT variation of GA (Kuznetsova et al, 2006). Phase of statistical semiannual variation in our study is determined by semiannual variation of value

  13. Solubility Prediction of Active Pharmaceutical Compounds with the UNIFAC Model

    Nouar, Abderrahim; Benmessaoud, Ibtissem; Koutchoukali, Ouahiba; Koutchoukali, Mohamed Salah

    2016-03-01

    The crystallization from solution of an active pharmaceutical ingredient requires the knowledge of the solubility in the entire temperature range investigated during the process. However, during the development of a new active ingredient, these data are missing. Its experimental determination is possible, but tedious. UNIFAC Group contribution method Fredenslund et al. (Vapor-liquid equilibria using UNIFAC: a group contribution method, 1977; AIChE J 21:1086, 1975) can be used to predict this physical property. Several modifications on this model have been proposed since its development in 1977, modified UNIFAC of Dortmund Weidlich et al. (Ind Eng Chem Res 26:1372, 1987), Gmehling et al. (Ind Eng Chem Res 32:178, 1993), Pharma-modified UNIFAC Diedrichs et al. (Evaluation und Erweiterung thermodynamischer Modelle zur Vorhersage von Wirkstofflöslichkeiten, PhD Thesis, 2010), KT-UNIFAC Kang et al. (Ind Eng Chem Res 41:3260, 2002), ldots In this study, we used UNIFAC model by considering the linear temperature dependence of interaction parameters as in Pharma-modified UNIFAC and structural groups as defined by KT-UNIFAC first-order model. More than 100 binary datasets were involved in the estimation of interaction parameters. These new parameters were then used to calculate activity coefficient and solubility of some molecules in various solvents at different temperatures. The model gives better results than those from the original UNIFAC and shows good agreement between the experimental solubility and the calculated one.

  14. Statistical estimations for predicting the detection limit of low activities

    When extremely low activities are measured, the statistics of the observed decay events may be insufficient for a justified application of statistical assessments based on the Gaussian distribution. Student's t-distribution and the theory of the interval estimation are used as the basis for a statistical model for predicting the detection limit and the signal-to-noise ratio which could be reached under the conditions of the measurement. The derived statistical estimations are applicable in cases when a small number of decay events is expected to be recorded. The minimum detectable activity characterizing the detection limit under the conditions of the measurement, is determined at the given confidence limits and assumed permissible relative statistical errors during the measurement of the sample and the background (within the available time limits). The derived statistical estimations can be used for comparing the possibilities offered by the different measuring methods applied for determination of extremely low activities. These evaluations can also be used as a criterion for discussing the reliability of the measurement results. (author). 6 refs

  15. Decreased dopamine activity predicts relapse in methamphetamine abusers

    Studies in methamphetamine (METH) abusers showed that the decreases in brain dopamine (DA) function might recover with protracted detoxification. However, the extent to which striatal DA function in METH predicts recovery has not been evaluated. Here we assessed whether striatal DA activity in METH abusers is associated with clinical outcomes. Brain DA D2 receptor (D2R) availability was measured with positron emission tomography and (11C)raclopride in 16 METH abusers, both after placebo and after challenge with 60 mg oral methylphenidate (MPH) (to measure DA release) to assess whether it predicted clinical outcomes. For this purpose, METH abusers were tested within 6 months of last METH use and then followed up for 9 months of abstinence. In parallel, 15 healthy controls were tested. METH abusers had lower D2R availability in caudate than in controls. Both METH abusers and controls showed decreased striatal D2R availability after MPH and these decreases were smaller in METH than in controls in left putamen. The six METH abusers who relapsed during the follow-up period had lower D2R availability in dorsal striatum than in controls, and had no D2R changes after MPH challenge. The 10 METH abusers who completed detoxification did not differ from controls neither in striatal D2R availability nor in MPH-induced striatal DA changes. These results provide preliminary evidence that low striatal DA function in METH abusers is associated with a greater likelihood of relapse during treatment. Detection of the extent of DA dysfunction may be helpful in predicting therapeutic outcomes.

  16. Decreased dopamine activity predicts relapse in methamphetamine abusers

    Wang G. J.; Wang, G.-J.; Smith, L.; Volkow, N.D.; Telang, F.; Logan, J.; Tomasi, D.; Wong, C.T.; Hoffman, W.; Jayne, M.; Alia-Klein, N.; Thanos, P.; Fowler, J.S.

    2011-01-20

    Studies in methamphetamine (METH) abusers showed that the decreases in brain dopamine (DA) function might recover with protracted detoxification. However, the extent to which striatal DA function in METH predicts recovery has not been evaluated. Here we assessed whether striatal DA activity in METH abusers is associated with clinical outcomes. Brain DA D2 receptor (D2R) availability was measured with positron emission tomography and [{sup 11}C]raclopride in 16 METH abusers, both after placebo and after challenge with 60 mg oral methylphenidate (MPH) (to measure DA release) to assess whether it predicted clinical outcomes. For this purpose, METH abusers were tested within 6 months of last METH use and then followed up for 9 months of abstinence. In parallel, 15 healthy controls were tested. METH abusers had lower D2R availability in caudate than in controls. Both METH abusers and controls showed decreased striatal D2R availability after MPH and these decreases were smaller in METH than in controls in left putamen. The six METH abusers who relapsed during the follow-up period had lower D2R availability in dorsal striatum than in controls, and had no D2R changes after MPH challenge. The 10 METH abusers who completed detoxification did not differ from controls neither in striatal D2R availability nor in MPH-induced striatal DA changes. These results provide preliminary evidence that low striatal DA function in METH abusers is associated with a greater likelihood of relapse during treatment. Detection of the extent of DA dysfunction may be helpful in predicting therapeutic outcomes.

  17. Geographic variation of surface energy partitioning in the climatic mean predicted from the maximum power limit

    Dhara, Chirag; Kleidon, Axel

    2015-01-01

    Convective and radiative cooling are the two principle mechanisms by which the Earth's surface transfers heat into the atmosphere and that shape surface temperature. However, this partitioning is not sufficiently constrained by energy and mass balances alone. We use a simple energy balance model in which convective fluxes and surface temperatures are determined with the additional thermodynamic limit of maximum convective power. We then show that the broad geographic variation of heat fluxes and surface temperatures in the climatological mean compare very well with the ERA-Interim reanalysis over land and ocean. We also show that the estimates depend considerably on the formulation of longwave radiative transfer and that a spatially uniform offset is related to the assumed cold temperature sink at which the heat engine operates.

  18. Predictable variation of range-sizes across an extreme environmental gradient in a lizard adaptive radiation: evolutionary and ecological inferences.

    Daniel Pincheira-Donoso

    Full Text Available Large-scale patterns of current species geographic range-size variation reflect historical dynamics of dispersal and provide insights into future consequences under changing environments. Evidence suggests that climate warming exerts major damage on high latitude and elevation organisms, where changes are more severe and available space to disperse tracking historical niches is more limited. Species with longer generations (slower adaptive responses, such as vertebrates, and with restricted distributions (lower genetic diversity, higher inbreeding in these environments are expected to be particularly threatened by warming crises. However, a well-known macroecological generalization (Rapoport's rule predicts that species range-sizes increase with increasing latitude-elevation, thus counterbalancing the impact of climate change. Here, I investigate geographic range-size variation across an extreme environmental gradient and as a function of body size, in the prominent Liolaemus lizard adaptive radiation. Conventional and phylogenetic analyses revealed that latitudinal (but not elevational ranges significantly decrease with increasing latitude-elevation, while body size was unrelated to range-size. Evolutionarily, these results are insightful as they suggest a link between spatial environmental gradients and range-size evolution. However, ecologically, these results suggest that Liolaemus might be increasingly threatened if, as predicted by theory, ranges retract and contract continuously under persisting climate warming, potentially increasing extinction risks at high latitudes and elevations.

  19. Effect of source variation on drug release from HPMC tablets: linear regression modeling for prediction of drug release.

    Piriyaprasarth, Suchada; Sriamornsak, Pornsak

    2011-06-15

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of source variation of hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC) raw material on prediction of drug release from HPMC matrix tablets. To achieve this objective, the flow ability (i.e., angle of repose and Carr's compressibility index) and apparent viscosity of HPMC from 3 sources was investigated to differentiate HPMC source variation. The physicochemical properties of drug and manufacturing process were also incorporated to develop the linear regression model for prediction of drug release. Specifically, the in vitro release of 18 formulations was determined according to a 2 × 3 × 3 full factorial design. Further regression analysis provided a quantitative relationship between the response and the studied independent variables. It was found that either apparent viscosity or Carr's compressibility index of HPMC powders combining with solubility and molecular weight of drug had significant impact on the release behavior of drug. The increased drug release was observed when a greater in drug solubility and a decrease in the molecular weight of drug were applied. Most importantly, this study has shown that the HPMC having low viscosity or high compressibility index resulted in an increase of drug release, especially in the case of poorly soluble drugs. PMID:21420475

  20. Macroecology of Sexual Selection: A Predictive Conceptual Framework for Large-Scale Variation in Reproductive Traits.

    Machado, Glauco; Buzatto, Bruno A; García-Hernández, Solimary; Macías-Ordóñez, Rogelio

    2016-09-01

    Abiotic factors exert direct and indirect influences on behavioral, morphological, and life-history traits. Because some of these traits are related to reproduction, there is a causal link between climatic conditions and the expression of reproductive traits. This link allows us to generate predictions on how reproductive traits vary in large geographic scales. Here we formalize this macroecological framework, present some general predictions, and explore empirical examples using harvestmen as study organisms. Our results show that the length of breeding season in harvestmen is primarily influenced by the number of warm months and that precipitation plays a secondary role in modulating the period devoted to reproduction. Moreover, we show that the probability of resource defense polygyny increases with longer breeding seasons and that the presence of this type of mating system positively affects the magnitude of sexual dimorphism in harvestmen. Finally, the presence of postovipositional parental care is also influenced by the length of breeding season but not by actual evapotranspiration, which is our proxy for the intensity of biotic interactions. We argue that the macroecological framework proposed here may be a fruitful field of investigation, with important implications for our understanding of sexual selection and the evolution of reproductive traits in both animals and plants. PMID:27513913

  1. Predicting eruptions from precursory activity using remote sensing data hybridization

    Reath, K. A.; Ramsey, M. S.; Dehn, J.; Webley, P. W.

    2016-07-01

    Many volcanoes produce some level of precursory activity prior to an eruption. This activity may or may not be detected depending on the available monitoring technology. In certain cases, precursors such as thermal output can be interpreted to make forecasts about the time and magnitude of the impending eruption. Kamchatka (Russia) provides an ideal natural laboratory to study a wide variety of eruption styles and precursory activity prior to an eruption. At Bezymianny volcano for example, a clear increase in thermal activity commonly occurs before an eruption, which has allowed predictions to be made months ahead of time. Conversely, the eruption of Tolbachik volcano in 2012 produced no discernable thermal precursors before the large scale effusive eruption. However, most volcanoes fall between the extremes of consistently behaved and completely undetectable, which is the case with neighboring Kliuchevskoi volcano. This study tests the effectiveness of using thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing to track volcanic thermal precursors using data from both the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors. It focuses on three large eruptions that produced different levels and durations of effusive and explosive behavior at Kliuchevskoi. Before each of these eruptions, TIR spaceborne sensors detected thermal anomalies (i.e., pixels with brightness temperatures > 2 °C above the background temperature). High-temporal, low-spatial resolution (i.e., ~ hours and 1 km) AVHRR data are ideal for detecting large thermal events occurring over shorter time scales, such as the hot material ejected following strombolian eruptions. In contrast, high-spatial, low-temporal resolution (i.e., days to weeks and 90 m) ASTER data enables the detection of much lower thermal activity; however, activity with a shorter duration will commonly be missed. ASTER and AVHRR data are combined to track low

  2. Acquisition and Active Navigation of Knowledge Particles throughout Product Variation Design Process

    ZHANG Shuyou; XU Jinghua

    2009-01-01

    The variation design of complex products has such features as multivariate association, weak theory coupling and implicit knowledge iteration. However, present CAD soft wares are still restricted to making decisions only according to current design status in dynamic navigation which leads to the huge drain of the knowledge hidden in design process. In this paper, a method of acquisition and active navigation of knowledge particles throughout product variation design process is put forward. The multi-objective decision information model of the variation design is established via the definition of condition attribute set and decision attribute set in finite universe. The addition and retrieval of the variation semantics is achieved through bidirectional association between the transplantable structures and variation design semantics. The mapping relationships between the topology lapping geometry elements set and constraint relations set family is built by means of geometry feature analysis. The acquisition of knowledge particles is implemented by attribute reduction based on rough set theory to make multi-objective decision of variation design. The topology lapping status of transplantable substructures is known from DOF reduction. The active navigation of knowledge particles is realized through embedded event-condition-action(ECA) rules. The independent prototype system taking Alan, Charles, Ian's system(ACIS) as kernel has been developed to verify the proposed method by applying variation design of complex mechanical products. The test results demonstrate that the navigation decision basis can be successfully extended from static isolated design status to dynamic continuous design process so that it more flexibly adapts to the different designers and various variation design steps. It is of profound significance for enhancing system intelligence as well as improving design quality and efficiency.

  3. Changes in the ecosystem structure of the Black Sea under predicted climatological and anthropogenic variations

    Akoglu, Ekin; Salihoglu, Baris; Fach Salihoglu, Bettina; Libralato, Simone; Cannaby, Heather; Oguz, Temel; Solidoro, Cosimo

    2014-05-01

    A dynamic Ecopath with Ecosim higher-trophic-level (HTL) model representation of the Black Sea ecosystem was coupled to the physical (BIMS-CIR) and biogeochemical (BIMS-ECO) models of the Black Sea in order to investigate historical anthropogenic and climatological interactions and feedbacks in the ecosystem. Further, the coupled models were used to assess the likely consequences of these interactions on the ecosystem's structure and functioning under predicted future climate (IPCC A1B) and fishing variability. Therefore, two model scenarios were used; i) a hindcast scenario (1980-1999) to evaluate and understand the impacts of the short-term climate and physical variability and the introduction of invasive species on the Black Sea ecosystem, and ii) a forecast scenario (2080-2099) to investigate the potential implications of climate change and anthropogenic exploitation on living resources of the Black Sea ecosystem by the end of the 21st century. According to the outcomes of the hindcast simulation, fisheries were found to be the main driver in determining the structure and functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem under changing environmental conditions. The coupled physical-biogeochemical forecast simulations predicted a slight but statistically significant basin-wide increase in the Black Sea's primary productivity by the end of the century due to increased stratification induced by basin-wide temperature increase and reduced Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL) formation which increased the residence time of riverine nutrients within the euphotic zone. Despite this increased primary productivity, the HTL model forecast simulation predicted a significant decrease in the commercial fish stocks primarily due to fisheries exploitation if current catch rates are maintained into the future. Results further suggested that some economically important small pelagic fish species are likely to disappear from the ecosystem making the recovery of the already-collapsed piscivorous

  4. A hybrid land use regression/AERMOD model for predicting intra-urban variation in PM2.5

    Michanowicz, Drew R.; Shmool, Jessie L. C.; Tunno, Brett J.; Tripathy, Sheila; Gillooly, Sara; Kinnee, Ellen; Clougherty, Jane E.

    2016-04-01

    Characterizing near-source spatio-temporal variation is a long -standing challenge in air pollution epidemiology, and common intra-urban modeling approaches [e.g., land use regression (LUR)], do not account for short-term meteorological variation. Atmospheric dispersion modeling approaches, such as AERMOD, can account for near-source pollutant behavior by capturing source-meteorological interactions, but requires external validation and resolved background concentrations. In this study, we integrate AERMOD-based predictions for source-specific fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations into LUR models derived from total ambient PM2.5 measured at 36 unique sites selected to represent different source and elevation profiles, during summer and winter, 2012-2013 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (PA). We modeled PM2.5 emissions from 207 local stationary sources in AERMOD, utilizing the monitoring locations as receptors, and hourly meteorological information matching each sampling period. Finally, we compare results of the integrated LUR/AERMOD hybrid model to those of the AERMOD + background and standard LUR models, at the full domain scale and within a 5 km2 sub-domain surrounding a large industrial facility. The hybrid model improved out-of-sample prediction accuracy by 2-10% over LUR alone, though performance differed by season, in part due to within-season temporal variability. We found differences up to 10 μg/m3 in predicted concentrations, and observed the largest differences within the industrial sub-domain. LUR underestimated concentrations from 500 to 2500 m downwind of major sources. The hybrid modeling approach we developed may help to improve intra-urban exposure estimates, particularly in regions of large industrial sources, sharp elevation gradients, or complex meteorology (e.g., frequent inversion events), such as Pittsburgh, PA. More broadly, the approach may inform the development of spatio-temporal modeling frameworks for air pollution exposure assessment for

  5. Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves

    Miller, David A.; Vleck, Carol M.; Otis, David L.

    2009-01-01

    Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10–15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves.

  6. Usage of mitochondrial D-loop variation to predict risk for Huntington disease.

    Mousavizadeh, Kazem; Rajabi, Peyman; Alaee, Mahsa; Dadgar, Sepideh; Houshmand, Massoud

    2015-08-01

    Huntington's disease (HD) is an inherited autosomal neurodegenerative disease caused by the abnormal expansion of the CAG repeats in the Huntingtin (Htt) gene. It has been proven that mitochondrial dysfunction is contributed to the pathogenesis of Huntington's disease. The mitochondrial displacement loop (D-loop) is proven to accumulate mutations at a higher rate than other regions of mtDNA. Thus, we hypothesized that specific SNPs in the D-loop may contribute to the pathogenesis of Huntington's disease. In the present study, 30 patients with Huntington's disease and 463 healthy controls were evaluated for mitochondrial mutation sites within the D-loop region using PCR-sequencing method. Sequence analysis revealed 35 variations in HD group from Cambridge Mitochondrial Sequences. A significant difference (p < 0.05) was seen between patients and control group in eight SNPs. Polymorphisms at C16069T, T16126C, T16189C, T16519C and C16223T were correlated with an increased risk of HD while SNPs at C16150T, T16086C and T16195C were associated with a decreased risk of Huntington's disease. PMID:24471944

  7. Oxytocin receptor gene variation and differential susceptibility to family environment in predicting youth borderline symptoms.

    Hammen, Constance; Bower, Julienne E; Cole, Steven W

    2015-04-01

    Oxytocin appears to be centrally involved in socioemotional functioning, and is hypothesized to be relevant to the severe disruption in close relationships characteristic of borderline personality pathology. We examined whether a polymorphism of the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR rs53576) interacts with quality of family functioning to predict borderline personality disorder (BPD) symptomatology in a sample of youth at age 20. A total of 385 youth from a longitudinal study of offspring of depressed or nondepressed mothers who were well characterized with respect to their family conditions and BPD symptomatology provided DNA for genotyping. Analyses revealed a significant moderation of the link between early family quality and later BPD symptoms by OXTR rs53576, and the pattern was consistent with differential susceptibility (plasticity). Whereas A-allele carriers had high levels of BPD symptoms under negative family conditions and low levels under positive conditions, GG homozygotes had average levels of BPD symptoms regardless of their family quality. PMID:25102084

  8. Temperament variation in sensitivity to parenting: predicting changes in depression and anxiety.

    Kiff, Cara J; Lengua, Liliana J; Bush, Nicole R

    2011-11-01

    Temperament was examined as a moderator of maternal parenting behaviors, including warmth, negativity, autonomy granting, and guidance. Observations of parenting and questionnaire measures of temperament and adjustment were obtained from a community sample (N = 214; ages 8-12). Trajectories of depression and anxiety were assessed across 3 years. The pattern of parenting as a predictor of internalizing symptoms depended on temperament. Maternal negativity predicted increases in depression for children low in fear. Effortful control moderated sensitivity to maternal negativity, autonomy granting, and guidance. Children low in effortful control reported more symptoms in the presence of negative or poor-fitting parenting. The results support differential responding, but also suggest that temperament may render children vulnerable for the development of problems regardless of parenting. PMID:21800017

  9. Latitudinal Variation in Carbon Storage Can Help Predict Changes in Swamps Affected by Global Warming

    Middleton, Beth A.; McKee, Karen

    2004-01-01

    Plants may offer our best hope of removing greenhouse gases (gases that contribute to global warming) emitted to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. At the same time, global warming could change environments so that natural plant communities will either need to shift into cooler climate zones, or become extirpated (Prasad and Iverson, 1999; Crumpacker and others, 2001; Davis and Shaw, 2001). It is impossible to know the future, but studies combining field observation of production and modeling can help us make predictions about what may happen to these wetland communities in the future. Widespread wetland types such as baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps in the southeastern portion of the United States could be especially good at carbon sequestration (amount of CO2 stored by forests) from the atmosphere. They have high levels of production and sometimes store undecomposed dead plant material in wet conditions with low oxygen, thus keeping gases stored that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere (fig. 1). To study the ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon, our project has taken two approaches. The first analysis looked at published data to develop an idea (hypothesis) of how production levels change across a temperature gradient in the baldcypress region (published data study). The second study tested this idea by comparing production levels across a latitudinal range by using swamps in similar field conditions (ongoing carbon storage study). These studies will help us make predictions about the future ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon in soil and plant biomass, as well as the ability of these forests to shift northward with global warming.

  10. Predicting cell types and genetic variations contributing to disease by combining GWAS and epigenetic data.

    Anna Gerasimova

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWASs identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that are enriched in individuals suffering from a given disease. Most disease-associated SNPs fall into non-coding regions, so that it is not straightforward to infer phenotype or function; moreover, many SNPs are in tight genetic linkage, so that a SNP identified as associated with a particular disease may not itself be causal, but rather signify the presence of a linked SNP that is functionally relevant to disease pathogenesis. Here, we present an analysis method that takes advantage of the recent rapid accumulation of epigenomics data to address these problems for some SNPs. Using asthma as a prototypic example; we show that non-coding disease-associated SNPs are enriched in genomic regions that function as regulators of transcription, such as enhancers and promoters. Identifying enhancers based on the presence of the histone modification marks such as H3K4me1 in different cell types, we show that the location of enhancers is highly cell-type specific. We use these findings to predict which SNPs are likely to be directly contributing to disease based on their presence in regulatory regions, and in which cell types their effect is expected to be detectable. Moreover, we can also predict which cell types contribute to a disease based on overlap of the disease-associated SNPs with the locations of enhancers present in a given cell type. Finally, we suggest that it will be possible to re-analyze GWAS studies with much higher power by limiting the SNPs considered to those in coding or regulatory regions of cell types relevant to a given disease.

  11. Variation in contents of main active components and antioxidant activity in leaves of different pigeon pea cultivars during growth.

    Wei, Zuo-Fu; Jin, Shuang; Luo, Meng; Pan, You-Zhi; Li, Ting-Ting; Qi, Xiao-Lin; Efferth, Thomas; Fu, Yu-Jie; Zu, Yuan-Gang

    2013-10-23

    Pigeon pea is an important and multiuse grain legume crop, and its leaves are a very valuable natural resource. To obtain a high-quality biological resource, it is necessary to choose the excellent cultivar and determine the appropriate harvest time. In this study, the variation in contents of main active components and antioxidant activity in leaves of six pigeon pea cultivars during growth were investigated. The level of each individual active component significantly varied during growth, but with a different pattern, and this variation was different among cultivars. Flavonoid glycosides orientin, vitexin, and apigenin-6,8-di-C-α-L-arabinopyranoside showed two peak values at mid-late and final stages of growth in most cases. Pinostrobin chalcone, longistyline C, and cajaninstilbene acid showed remarkablely higher values at the mid-late stage of growth than at other stages. Pinostrobin had an extremely different variation pattern compared to other active components. Its content was the highest at the earlier stage of growth. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that vitexin and apigenin-6,8-di-C-α-L-arabinopyranoside were mainly responsible for distinguishing cultivars analyzed. In a comprehensive consideration, the leaves should preferentially be harvested at the 135th day after sowing when the level of active components and antioxidant activity reached higher values. Cultivars ICP 13092, ICPL 87091, and ICPL 96053 were considered to be excellent cultivars with high antioxidant activity. Our findings can provide valuable information for producing a high-quality pigeon pea resource. PMID:24066714

  12. Brain monoamine oxidase A activity predicts trait aggression.

    Alia-Klein, Nelly; Goldstein, Rita Z; Kriplani, Aarti; Logan, Jean; Tomasi, Dardo; Williams, Benjamin; Telang, Frank; Shumay, Elena; Biegon, Anat; Craig, Ian W; Henn, Fritz; Wang, Gene-Jack; Volkow, Nora D; Fowler, Joanna S

    2008-05-01

    The genetic deletion of monoamine oxidase A (MAO A), an enzyme that breaks down the monoamine neurotransmitters norepinephrine, serotonin, and dopamine, produces aggressive phenotypes across species. Therefore, a common polymorphism in the MAO A gene (MAOA, Mendelian Inheritance in Men database number 309850, referred to as high or low based on transcription in non-neuronal cells) has been investigated in a number of externalizing behavioral and clinical phenotypes. These studies provide evidence linking the low MAOA genotype and violent behavior but only through interaction with severe environmental stressors during childhood. Here, we hypothesized that in healthy adult males the gene product of MAO A in the brain, rather than the gene per se, would be associated with regulating the concentration of brain amines involved in trait aggression. Brain MAO A activity was measured in vivo in healthy nonsmoking men with positron emission tomography using a radioligand specific for MAO A (clorgyline labeled with carbon 11). Trait aggression was measured with the multidimensional personality questionnaire (MPQ). Here we report for the first time that brain MAO A correlates inversely with the MPQ trait measure of aggression (but not with other personality traits) such that the lower the MAO A activity in cortical and subcortical brain regions, the higher the self-reported aggression (in both MAOA genotype groups) contributing to more than one-third of the variability. Because trait aggression is a measure used to predict antisocial behavior, these results underscore the relevance of MAO A as a neurochemical substrate of aberrant aggression. PMID:18463263

  13. Variation in energy expenditure among black-legged kittiwakes : Effects of activity-specific metabolic rates and activity budgets

    Jodice, PGR; Roby, DD; Suryan, RM; Irons, DB; Kaufman, AM; Turco, KR; Visser, GH

    2003-01-01

    We sought to determine the effect of variation in time-activity budgets (TABs) and foraging behavior on energy expenditure rates of parent black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). We quantified TABs using direct observations of radio-tagged adults and simultaneously measured field metabolic rates

  14. Periodic Hα variations in GL 581: Further evidence for an activity origin to GL 581d

    Hatzes, A. P.

    2016-01-01

    Context. Radial velocity measurements initially showed evidence that the M dwarf GL 581 might host up to six planetary companions. Two of these, GL 581g and GL 581d had orbital distances in the so-called "habitable zone" of the star. The existence of both of these planets have been called into question. Additional radial velocity measurements for GL 581g could not confirm its presence. A study of Hα in GL 581 showed that changes in this activity indicator correlated with radial velocity variations attributed to GL 581d. Thus two planets that were important for studies of habitable planets may be artifacts of stellar activity. Aims: Previous investigations analyzing the same activity data have reached different conclusions regarding the existence of GL 581d. We therefore investigated the Hα variations for GL 581 to assess the nature of the radial velocity variations attributed to the possible planet GL 581d. Methods: We performed a Fourier analysis of the published Hα measurements for GL 581. Fourier components were selectively found and removed in a so-called pre-whitening process thus isolating any variations at the orbital frequency of GL 581d. Results: The frequency analysis yields five significant frequencies, one of which is associated with the 66.7 d orbital period of the presumed planet Gl 581d. The Hα variations at this period show sine-like variations that are 180° out-of-phase with the radial velocity variations of GL 581d. This is seen in the full data set that spans almost 7 years, as well as a subset of the data near the end of the time series that had good temporal sampling over 230 days. Furthermore, no significant temporal variations are found in the ratio of the amplitudes of the Hα index and radial velocity variations. This provides additional evidence that the radial velocity signal attributed to GL 581d is in fact due to stellar activity. Conclusions: The analysis confirms the anti-correlation of the radial velocity of GL 581d with the H

  15. The prediction of induced activity levels in and around NIMROD

    Hack, R C

    1973-01-01

    Comparisons are reported between measured and predicted levels of induced radioactivity for a number of irradiation conditions. Good agreement was found between experimental measurements and fairly simple methods of prediction developed at CERN.

  16. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    Chang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, Y

    2015-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinghe basin, located in ...

  17. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity to streamflow variation

    Chang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, Y

    2015-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impacts of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impacts on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resources management. By using an elasticity-based method, calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrologic models, we have quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activity and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinhe b...

  18. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    Chang, Jianxia; Zhang, Hongxue; Wang, Yimin; Zhu, Yuelu

    2016-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in the Jinghe basin, located...

  19. Accelerometer based Activity Classification with Variational Inference on Sticky HDP-SLDS

    Basbug, Mehmet Emin; Ozcan, Koray; Velipasalar, Senem

    2015-01-01

    As part of daily monitoring of human activities, wearable sensors and devices are becoming increasingly popular sources of data. With the advent of smartphones equipped with acceloremeter, gyroscope and camera; it is now possible to develop activity classification platforms everyone can use conveniently. In this paper, we propose a fast inference method for an unsupervised non-parametric time series model namely variational inference for sticky HDP-SLDS(Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Switchin...

  20. Characterisation of regional variations in a stitched CMOS active pixel sensor

    Stitched, large area, complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS), active pixel sensors (APS) show promises for X-ray imaging applications. In this paper we present an investigation of the effects of stitching on uniformity of sensor response for an experimental APS. The sensor, known as LAS (large area sensor), was made by reticular stitching onto a single silicon wafer of a 5x5 array of regions consisting of 270x270 pixels with 40 μm pixel pitch, to yield 1350x1350 pixels and an imaging area of 54x54 mm. Data acquired from two different sensors of the same type were filtered to remove spiking pixels and electromagnetic interference (EMI). The non-linear compensation (NLC) technique for CMOS sensor analysis was used to determine the variation in gain, read noise, full well capacity and dynamic range between stitched regions. Variations across stitched regions were analysed using profiles, analysis of pixel variations at stitch boundaries and using a measurement of non-uniformity within a stitched region. The results showed that non-uniformity variations were present, which increased with signal (1.5-3.5% at dark signal, rising to 3-8%). However, these were found to be smaller than variations caused by differences in readout electronics, particularly at low signal levels. The results suggest these variations should be correctable using standard calibration methods.

  1. Genotypic and Environmental Variations of Arabinoxylan Content and Endoxylanase Activity in Barley Grains

    ZHANG Xiao-qin; XUE Da-wei; WU Fei-bo; ZHANG Guo-ping

    2013-01-01

    Arabinoxylan (AX) content in barley grains is an important quality determinant when barley is used as raw material of malt or beer production. The cultivar and environmental variations of total arabinoxylan (TAX), water extractable arabinoxylan (WEAX) and endoxylanase activity (EA) were investigated using eight barley cultivars growing at seven locations with diverse environmental conditions. The results showed that both barley cultivar and location significantly affected the TAX, WEAX and EA levels, but the variations of TAX content and EA were mainly attributed to cultivar, while the impact of location on WEAX content was greater than that of cultivar. Correlation analysis indicated that TAX was significantly correlated to WUAX.

  2. Periodic Halpha variations in GL 581: Further evidence for an activity origin to GL 581d

    Hatzes, Artie P

    2015-01-01

    Radial velocity measurements showed evidence that the M dwarf GL 581 might host a planet, GL 581d, in the so-called "habitable zone" of the star. A study of Halpha in GL 581 demonstrated that changes in this activity indicator correlated with radial velocity variations attributed to GL 581d. An exopplanet that was important for studies of planet habitability may be an artifact of stellar activity. Previous investigations analyzing the same activity data have reached different conclusions regarding the existence of GL 581d. We therfore investigated the Halpha variations for GL 581 to assess the nature of the radial velocity variations attributed to the possible planet GL 581d. We performed a Fourier analysis of the published Halpha measurements for GL 581d using a so-called pre-whitening process to isolate the variations at the orbital frequency of GL 581d. The frequency analysis yields five significant frequencies, one of which is associated with the 66.7 d orbital period of the presumed planet Gl 581d. The H...

  3. The GEO Water Strategy: Advances in Monitoring, Modeling, and Predicting Groundwater Variations at Regional to Local Scales

    Miller, N. L.; Heinrich, L.; Kukuri, N.; Plag, H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Rodell, M.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater remains one of the most important freshwater resources, especially during droughts and as global warming increases. For informed decisions on managing these resources sustainably, it is important to have sound assessments of the current state of groundwater resources as well as future predictions. This requires reliable groundwater quantity and quality data. However global access to this data is limited. As part of the GEOSS Water Strategy, the International Groundwater Assessment Centre (IGRAC) is therefore implementing the Global Groundwater Monitoring Network (GGMN). The GGMN facilitates periodic assessments of changes in groundwater quantity and quality by aggregating data and information from existing groundwater monitoring networks and regional hydrogeological knowledge (Fig. 1). The GGMN is a participatory process that relies upon contributions from regional and national networks of groundwater experts. Such observation data, along with local well data, surface displacements observed by and GPS data and InSAR, and local in situ gravity data, are necessary for evaluation and simulation of groundwater, leading to improved understanding and prediction of groundwater variations. In conjunction with these observations, regional scale groundwater variations are derived as a residual from land surface-groundwater models through extraction of the total mass of water using geo-rectified Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. Such model-based studies have quantified overdraft and regions at risk of groundwater depletion in parts of Asia, US, and Africa (Fig. 2).We provide an overview of these systems, planned missions, and new model-based approaches toward local-scale methods for assimilation of well data for several regions.igure 1. Example of GGMN (Example of Botswana with fictitious data, with local precipitation map) igure 2. GRACE-derived groundwater storage in northwestern India for 2002 - 2008, relative to the mean. Deviations from

  4. Use of systolic pressure variation to predict the cardiovascular response to mini-fluid challenge in anaesthetised dogs.

    Rabozzi, R; Franci, P

    2014-11-01

    Systolic pressure variation (SPV), the maximum variation in systolic pressure values following a single positive pressure breath delivered by controlled mechanical ventilation (CMV), is highly correlated with volaemia in dogs. The aim of this study was to determine an SPV value that would indicate when fluid administration would be beneficial in clinical practice. Twenty-six client-owned dogs were anaesthetised, following which CMV with a peak inspiratory pressure (PIP) of 8 cmH2O was applied. After SPV measurement and recording of heart rate (HR) and blood pressure (BP), 3 mL/kg fluid were administered, then HR and BP were recorded again. Dogs exhibiting a 10% decrease in HR and/or an increase in BP were defined as responders, and their SPV pre-bolus was analysed retrospectively. SPV values > 4 mmHg or >4.5% predicted haemodynamic improvement in dogs with normal cardiovascular function, with a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 87%. The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic value for SPV was 0.931 mmHg (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.76-0.99 mmHg) and 0.944% (95% CI 0.78-0.99%). It is proposed that SPV values > 4.5% in dogs with a normal cardiovascular function, anaesthetised with isoflurane in oxygen and air, and on CMV (PIP 8 cmH2O), can be used to predict a cardiovascular response (>10% increase in mean arterial BP and/or >10% decrease in heart rate). PMID:25199508

  5. Predictive active disturbance rejection control for processes with time delay.

    Zheng, Qinling; Gao, Zhiqiang

    2014-07-01

    Active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) has been shown to be an effective tool in dealing with real world problems of dynamic uncertainties, disturbances, nonlinearities, etc. This paper addresses its existing limitations with plants that have a large transport delay. In particular, to overcome the delay, the extended state observer (ESO) in ADRC is modified to form a predictive ADRC, leading to significant improvements in the transient response and stability characteristics, as shown in extensive simulation studies and hardware-in-the-loop tests, as well as in the frequency response analysis. In this research, it is assumed that the amount of delay is approximately known, as is the approximated model of the plant. Even with such uncharacteristic assumptions for ADRC, the proposed method still exhibits significant improvements in both performance and robustness over the existing methods such as the dead-time compensator based on disturbance observer and the Filtered Smith Predictor, in the context of some well-known problems of chemical reactor and boiler control problems. PMID:24182516

  6. An improved model for predicting performance of finned tube heat exchanger under frosting condition, with frost thickness variation along fin

    Tso, C.P. [Multimedia University, Jalan Ayer Keroh Lama, Melaka (Malaysia). Faculty of Engineering and Technology; Cheng, Y.C.; Lai, A.C.K. [Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (Singapore). School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

    2006-01-15

    Frost accumulation on a heat exchanger, a direct result of combined heat and mass transfer between the moist air flowing across a cold surface, causes heat transfer performance degradation due to the insulating effect of frost layer and the coil blockage as the frost grows. The complex geometry of finned tube heat exchangers leads to uneven wall and air temperature distribution inside the coil, and causes variations of frost growth rate and densification along the coil. In this study, a general distributed model with frost formation was developed. The equations for finned tube heat exchanger were derived in non-steady-state manner and quasi-steady state in the frost model. In order to make the model more realistic, the variation of frost along fin due to uneven temperature distribution was included. The presented model is able to predict the dynamic behavior of an air cooler both under non-frost and frost condition. Comparisons were made based on the frost mass accumulation, pressure drop across coil and energy transfer coefficient, and results were found to agree well with reported experimental results. (author)

  7. Pre-mining variation of alpha activity intake in shells of fresh water mussels

    Kvasnicka, J.; McNally, P.; McKay, T. (Northern Territory Dept. of Mines and Energy, Darwin (Australia)); Allison, H. (Office of the Supervising Scientist for the Alligator Rivers Region, Sydney (Australia)); Bywater, J. (Ranger Uranium Mines Proprietary Ltd., Chatswood (Australia))

    1985-04-01

    Specific alpha activity distribution in fresh water mussel shells has been studied for mussels collected from several billabongs in the uranium province in the Northern Territory. Track etch detector Kodak LR-115 was exposed to alpha particles emitted from surface areas of shells previously dated by growth-rings counting procedures. The annual average alpha activity was calculated from alpha emission track etch densities corresponding to the dated areas on the shell surfaces. An interesting correlation between the annual rainfall and corresponding annual average shell activity was observed. The results demonstrated that this method could indicate aspects of variations in natural pre-mining radiation background of billabongs which are the source of some of the traditional diet components, such as mussels, for local aboriginals. The evaluation of the future influence of uranium mining on the levels of radiation likely to be taken up into diet components must take careful consideration of these observed variations in natural background radiation.

  8. Pre-mining variation of alpha activity intake in shells of fresh water mussels

    Specific alpha activity distribution in fresh water mussel shells has been studied for mussels collected from several billabongs in the uranium province in the Northern Territory. Track etch detector Kodak LR-115 was exposed to alpha particles emitted from surface areas of shells previously dated by growth-rings counting procedures. The annual average alpha activity was calculated from alpha emission track etch densities corresponding to the dated areas on the shell surfaces. An interesting correlation between the annual rainfall and corresponding annual average shell activity was observed. The results demonstrated that this method could indicate aspects of variations in natural pre-mining radiation background of billabongs which are the source of some of the traditional diet components, suvh as mussels, for local aboriginals. The evaluation of the future influence of uranium mining on the levels of radiation likely to be taken up into diet components must take careful consideration of these observed variations in natural background radiation

  9. On temporal variation of Ceasium isotopes activities in airborne and fallout

    Monthly variations of Cs-137 and Cs-134 activities in airborne and fallout collected in Dalat from 1986 to 1991 are presented. The variations exhibit distinct maxima in December-January, when dry fallout was predominant. The observed peaks are explained by the intrusion of cold air masses with higher radioactivity from temperate latitudes during the development of large-scale anticyclones frequently observed in the most active winter monsoon period. Very high dry fallout velocity (about 10 cm/s) determined from the airborne and fallout activities clearly demonstrates one of the most relevant characteristics of cold air masses: behind the cold front vertical air motion is descending.(Authors) (1 Fig. 2 Tables)

  10. Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate

    Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Liang, Eryuan; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Huang, Yongmei

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the daytime and nighttime climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is well documented, but its consequences for vegetation activity remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the interannual responses of vegetation activity to variations of seasonal mean daytime and nighttime climate in NH (>30 °N) during the past decades using remote sensing retrievals, FLUXNET and tree ring data. Despite a generally significant and positive response of vegetation activity to seasonal mean maximum temperature () in ~22-25% of the boreal (>50 °N) NH between spring and autumn, spring-summer progressive water limitations appear to decouple vegetation activity from the mean summer , particularly in climate zones with dry summers. Drought alleviation during autumn results in vegetation recovery from the marked warming-induced drought limitations observed in spring and summer across 24-26% of the temperate NH. Vegetation activity exhibits a pervasively negative correlation with the autumn mean minimum temperature, which is in contrast to the ambiguous patterns observed in spring and summer. Our findings provide new insights into how seasonal asymmetry in the interannual variations in the mean daytime and nighttime climate interacts with water limitations to produce spatiotemporally variable responses of vegetation growth.

  11. Experimental and analytical study of secondary path variations in active engine mounts

    Hausberg, Fabian; Scheiblegger, Christian; Pfeffer, Peter; Plöchl, Manfred; Hecker, Simon; Rupp, Markus

    2015-03-01

    Active engine mounts (AEMs) provide an effective solution to further improve the acoustic and vibrational comfort of passenger cars. Typically, adaptive feedforward control algorithms, e.g., the filtered-x-least-mean-squares (FxLMS) algorithm, are applied to cancel disturbing engine vibrations. These algorithms require an accurate estimate of the AEM active dynamic characteristics, also known as the secondary path, in order to guarantee control performance and stability. This paper focuses on the experimental and theoretical study of secondary path variations in AEMs. The impact of three major influences, namely nonlinearity, change of preload and component temperature, on the AEM active dynamic characteristics is experimentally analyzed. The obtained test results are theoretically investigated with a linear AEM model which incorporates an appropriate description for elastomeric components. A special experimental set-up extends the model validation of the active dynamic characteristics to higher frequencies up to 400 Hz. The theoretical and experimental results show that significant secondary path variations are merely observed in the frequency range of the AEM actuator's resonance frequency. These variations mainly result from the change of the component temperature. As the stability of the algorithm is primarily affected by the actuator's resonance frequency, the findings of this paper facilitate the design of AEMs with simpler adaptive feedforward algorithms. From a practical point of view it may further be concluded that algorithmic countermeasures against instability are only necessary in the frequency range of the AEM actuator's resonance frequency.

  12. Leisure time physical activity in the Framingham Offspring Study. Description, seasonal variation, and risk factor correlates.

    Dannenberg, A L; Keller, J B; Wilson, P W; Castelli, W P

    1989-01-01

    Self-reported leisure time physical activity was analyzed for 1,598 men and 1,762 women aged 20-69 years in the Framingham Offspring Cycle 2 exam in 1979-1983. Walking for pleasure was generally the most common physical activity for both sexes throughout the year. Substantial seasonal variation was noted for the most common activities: gardening, carpentry, lawn mowing, golf, and running for men; and gardening, swimming, health club exercise, dancing, and bicycling for women. Both sexes expended more kilocalories in physical activities in summer than in winter (p less than 0.001). Frequency of participation in activities sufficient to induce perspiration was associated with frequency of participation in at least one hour of conditioning (greater than or equal to 7.5 kilocal/minute) activities per week (p less than 0.001). Based on age-adjusted mean levels, higher high density lipoprotein cholesterol, lower heart rate, lower body mass index and fewer cigarettes smoked per day were consistently observed across four quartiles of increasing physical activity levels (p less than 0.01). Men who participated in at least one hour of conditioning activities per week had significantly different mean levels for these four risk factors than men who reported less than one hour of such activities per week (p less than 0.001). Results substantiate previous reports of an inverse relation between physical activity levels and cardiovascular risk, and suggest seasonal variation in activity levels should be considered in future studies which explore the relation between physical activity and cardiovascular disease. PMID:2910074

  13. Bet hedging in a warming ocean: predictability of maternal environment shapes offspring size variation in marine sticklebacks.

    Shama, Lisa N S

    2015-12-01

    Bet hedging at reproduction is expected to evolve when mothers are exposed to unpredictable cues for future environmental conditions, whereas transgenerational plasticity (TGP) should be favoured when cues reliably predict the environment offspring will experience. Since climate predictions forecast an increase in both temperature and climate variability, both TGP and bet hedging are likely to become important strategies to mediate climate change effects. Here, the potential to produce variably sized offspring in both warming and unpredictable environments was tested by investigating whether stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) mothers adjusted mean offspring size and within-clutch variation in offspring size in response to experimental manipulation of maternal thermal environment and predictability (alternating between ambient and elevated water temperatures). Reproductive output traits of F1 females were influenced by both temperature and environmental predictability. Mothers that developed at ambient temperature (17 °C) produced larger, but fewer eggs than mothers that developed at elevated temperature (21 °C), implying selection for different-sized offspring in different environments. Mothers in unpredictable environments had smaller mean egg sizes and tended to have greater within-female egg size variability, especially at 21 °C, suggesting that mothers may have dynamically modified the variance in offspring size to spread the risk of incorrectly predicting future environmental conditions. Both TGP and diversification influenced F2 offspring body size. F2 offspring reared at 21 °C had larger mean body sizes if their mother developed at 21 °C, but this TGP benefit was not present for offspring of 17 °C mothers reared at 17 °C, indicating that maternal TGP will be highly relevant for ocean warming scenarios in this system. Offspring of variable environment mothers were smaller but more variable in size than offspring from constant environment

  14. Evaluation of the impact of AIRS profiles on prediction of Indian summer monsoon using WRF variational data assimilation system

    Raju, Attada; Parekh, Anant; Kumar, Prashant; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2015-08-01

    This study investigates the impact of temperature and moisture profiles from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the prediction of the Indian summer monsoon, using the variational data assimilation system annexed to the Weather Research and Forecasting model. In this study, three numerical experiments are carried out. The first is the control and includes no assimilation; in the second, named Conv, assimilation of conventional Global Telecommunication System data is performed. The third one, named ConvAIRS, is identical to the Conv except that it also includes assimilation of AIRS profiles. The initial fields of tropospheric temperature and water vapor mixing ratio showed significant improvement over the model domain. Assimilation of AIRS profiles has significant impact on predicting the seasonal mean monsoon characteristics such as tropospheric temperature, low-level moisture distribution, easterly wind shear, and precipitation. The vertical structure of the root-mean-square error is substantially affected by the assimilation of AIRS profiles, with smaller errors in temperature, humidity, and wind magnitude. The consequent improved representation of moisture convergence in the boundary layer (deep convection as well) causes an increase in precipitation forecast skill. The fact that the monsoonal circulation is better captured, thanks to an improved representation of thermal gradients, which in turn leads to more realistic moisture transport, is particularly noteworthy. Several previous data impact studies with AIRS and other sensors have focused on the short or medium range of the forecast. The demonstrated improvement in all the predicted fields associated with the Indian summer monsoon, consequent to the month long assimilation of AIRS profiles, is an innovative finding with large implications to the operational seasonal forecasting capabilities over the Indian subcontinent.

  15. Decadal variation of ocean heat content and tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal

    Sankar Nath; S D Kotal; P K Kundu

    2016-02-01

    The upper ocean heat content up to 700 m depth (OHC700) is an important climatic parameter required for atmospheric and oceanographic studies like a cyclone. In this study, therefore, an attempt has been made to examine the inter-decadal variations of tropical cyclone (TC) activity and OHC700 over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) for the post-monsoon season (October–December) during 1955–2013 periods. The sea-surface temperature (SST), geopotential height at 500 hPa, low-level vorticity at 850 hPa, vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, middle tropospheric humidity at 500 hPa and outgoing long-wave radiation are also being studied using seasonal mean data. The results show a significant inter-decadal variation during 1955–2013, with two distinct decadal periods: active decadal period (ADP) (1955–1988) and inactive decadal period (IDP) (1989–2013). The anomalies of these parameters are opposite in phase for two periods. It is found that the large scale atmospheric features and oceanic parameters have significant inter-decadal variability, but frequency of the tropical cyclone is attributed to the variation in the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions rather than the variation of oceanic parameters OHC700 and SSTs during the post-monsoon season.

  16. Decadal variation of ocean heat content and tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal

    Nath, Sankar; Kotal, S. D.; Kundu, P. K.

    2016-02-01

    The upper ocean heat content up to 700 m depth (OHC700) is an important climatic parameter required for atmospheric and oceanographic studies like a cyclone. In this study, therefore, an attempt has been made to examine the inter-decadal variations of tropical cyclone (TC) activity and OHC700 over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) for the post-monsoon season (October-December) during 1955-2013 periods. The sea-surface temperature (SST), geopotential height at 500 hPa, low-level vorticity at 850 hPa, vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, middle tropospheric humidity at 500 hPa and outgoing long-wave radiation are also being studied using seasonal mean data. The results show a significant inter-decadal variation during 1955-2013, with two distinct decadal periods: active decadal period (ADP) (1955-1988) and inactive decadal period (IDP) (1989-2013). The anomalies of these parameters are opposite in phase for two periods. It is found that the large scale atmospheric features and oceanic parameters have significant inter-decadal variability, but frequency of the tropical cyclone is attributed to the variation in the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions rather than the variation of oceanic parameters OHC700 and SSTs during the post-monsoon season.

  17. Prediction of residual metabolic activity after treatment in NSCLC patients

    Rios Velazquez, Emmanuel; Aerts, Hugo J.W.L.; Oberije, Cary; Ruysscher, Dirk De; Lambin, Philippe (Dept. of Radiation Oncology, School for Oncology and Developmental Biology, Maastricht Univ. Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands)), E-mail: emmanuel.rios@maastro.nl

    2010-10-15

    Purpose. Metabolic response assessment is often used as a surrogate of local failure and survival. Early identification of patients with residual metabolic activity is essential as this enables selection of patients who could potentially benefit from additional therapy. We report on the development of a pre-treatment prediction model for metabolic response using patient, tumor and treatment factors. Methods. One hundred and one patients with inoperable NSCLC (stage I-IV), treated with 3D conformal radical (chemo)-radiotherapy were retrospectively included in this study. All patients received a pre and post-radiotherapy fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography-computed tomography FDG-PET-CT scan. The electronic medical record system and the medical patient charts were reviewed to obtain demographic, clinical, tumor and treatment data. Primary outcome measure was examined using a metabolic response assessment on a post-radiotherapy FDG-PET-CT scan. Radiotherapy was delivered in fractions of 1.8 Gy, twice a day, with a median prescribed dose of 60 Gy. Results. Overall survival was worse in patients with residual metabolic active areas compared with the patients with a complete metabolic response (p=0.0001). In univariate analysis, three variables were significantly associated with residual disease: larger primary gross tumor volume (GTVprimary, p=0.002), higher pre-treatment maximum standardized uptake value (SUV{sub max}, p=0.0005) in the primary tumor and shorter overall treatment time (OTT, p=0.046). A multivariate model including GTVprimary, SUV{sub max}, equivalent radiation dose at 2 Gy corrected for time (EQD2, T) and OTT yielded an area under the curve assessed by the leave-one-out cross validation of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.65-0.76). Conclusion. Our results confirmed the validity of metabolic response assessment as a surrogate of survival. We developed a multivariate model that is able to identify patients at risk of residual disease. These patients may

  18. A Local Stable Bootstrap for Power Variations of Pure-Jump Semimartingales and Activity Index Estimation

    Hounyo, Ulrich; Varneskov, Rasmus T.

    We provide a new resampling procedure - the local stable bootstrap - that is able to mimic the dependence properties of realized power variations for pure-jump semimartingales observed at different frequencies. This allows us to propose a bootstrap estimator and inference procedure for the activity...... index of the underlying process, β, as well as a bootstrap test for whether it obeys a jump-diffusion or a pure-jump process, that is, of the null hypothesis H₀: β=2 against the alternative H₁: β<2. We establish first-order asymptotic validity of the resulting bootstrap power variations, activity index...... estimator, and diffusion test for H0. Moreover, the finite sample size and power properties of the proposed diffusion test are compared to those of benchmark tests using Monte Carlo simulations. Unlike existing procedures, our bootstrap test is correctly sized in general settings. Finally, we illustrate use...

  19. Activated sewage sludge, a potential animal foodstuff. Part I. Proximate and mineral content; seasonal variation

    Tacon, A.G.J.; Ferns, P.N.

    1979-08-01

    A detailed proximate and mineral analysis of activated sewage sludge is described. Samples were collected at bi-weekly intervals from a rural domestic sewage works for one year. The following annual ranges and mean values were determined for the chemical components within the sludge samples: moisture, total nitrogen, crude protein, Lowry protein, fat, saponification value, available carbohydrate as glucose, fiber, ash, acid insoluble ash, and 26 elements. The seasonal variation patterns observed are discussed. 23 references

  20. Latitudinal variation of the topside electron temperature at different levels of solar activity

    Truhlík, Vladimír; Bilitza, D.; Třísková, Ludmila

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 6 (2009), s. 693-700. ISSN 0273-1177 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300420603 Grant ostatní: NASA (US) NNH06CD17C Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Electron temperature * Solar activity variation * Latitudinal dependence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.079, year: 2009

  1. Variation of Be-7 / Pb-210 activity ratio in aerosol particles

    The main objective of this work was to evaluate the importance of atmospheric transport pathways and air masses origin on the local atmospheric radioactivity levels, by using the variation of Be-7 and Pb-210 activity on aerosol samples. All the samples were collected between May 2000 and July 2001 on the Nuclear and Technological Institute campus in Sacavem. The samples activity was measured gamma spectrometry using an HPGe well-type detector. External influences on local atmospheric radioactivity levels were assessed by using Be-7/Pb-210 activity ratios, together with both nuclides combined activity in the form of a radioactive loading index. It was concluded that the occurrences of low activity ratio values were associated with air masses from continental origin. The occurrence of high relative abundance in Be-7 was associated with descendent vertical movements of the air masses, which promotes the transference to the lower troposphere of Be-7 enriched aerosols. (author)

  2. Spatial Variations of Soil Microbial Activities in Saline Groundwater-Irrigated Soil Ecosystem

    Chen, Li-Juan; Feng, Qi; Li, Chang-Sheng; Song, You-Xi; Liu, Wei; Si, Jian-Hua; Zhang, Bao-Gui

    2016-05-01

    Spatial variations of soil microbial activities and its relationship with environmental factors are very important for estimating regional soil ecosystem function. Based on field samplings in a typical saline groundwater-irrigated region, spatial variations of soil microbial metabolic activities were investigated. Combined with groundwater quality analysis, the relationship between microbial activities and water salinity was also studied. The results demonstrated that moderate spatial heterogeneity of soil microbial activities presented under the total dissolved solids (TDS) of groundwater ranging from 0.23 to 12.24 g L-1. Groundwater salinity and microbial activities had almost opposite distribution characteristics: slight saline water was mainly distributed in west Baqu and south Quanshan, while severe saline and briny water were dominant in east Baqu and west Huqu; however, total AWCD was higher in the east-center and southwest of Baqu and east Huqu, while it was lower in east Baqu and northwest Huqu. The results of correlation analyses demonstrated that high-salinity groundwater irrigation had significantly adverse effects on soil microbial activities. Major ions Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl_, and SO4 2- in groundwater decisively influenced the results. Three carbon sources, carbohydrates, amines, and phenols, which had minor utilization rates in all irrigation districts, were extremely significantly affected by high-salinity groundwater irrigation. The results presented here offer an approach for diagnosing regional soil ecosystem function changes under saline water irrigation.

  3. Spatial Variations of Soil Microbial Activities in Saline Groundwater-Irrigated Soil Ecosystem.

    Chen, Li-Juan; Feng, Qi; Li, Chang-Sheng; Song, You-Xi; Liu, Wei; Si, Jian-Hua; Zhang, Bao-Gui

    2016-05-01

    Spatial variations of soil microbial activities and its relationship with environmental factors are very important for estimating regional soil ecosystem function. Based on field samplings in a typical saline groundwater-irrigated region, spatial variations of soil microbial metabolic activities were investigated. Combined with groundwater quality analysis, the relationship between microbial activities and water salinity was also studied. The results demonstrated that moderate spatial heterogeneity of soil microbial activities presented under the total dissolved solids (TDS) of groundwater ranging from 0.23 to 12.24 g L(-1). Groundwater salinity and microbial activities had almost opposite distribution characteristics: slight saline water was mainly distributed in west Baqu and south Quanshan, while severe saline and briny water were dominant in east Baqu and west Huqu; however, total AWCD was higher in the east-center and southwest of Baqu and east Huqu, while it was lower in east Baqu and northwest Huqu. The results of correlation analyses demonstrated that high-salinity groundwater irrigation had significantly adverse effects on soil microbial activities. Major ions Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Cl(_), and SO4 (2-) in groundwater decisively influenced the results. Three carbon sources, carbohydrates, amines, and phenols, which had minor utilization rates in all irrigation districts, were extremely significantly affected by high-salinity groundwater irrigation. The results presented here offer an approach for diagnosing regional soil ecosystem function changes under saline water irrigation. PMID:26872886

  4. Bursty Variations of Jovian 6cm Radio Emissions and Quasi-Periodic Jupiter's Polar Activities

    Lou, Yu-Qing; Song, Huagang; Liu, Yinyu; Meng YANG

    2012-01-01

    In reference to Jupiter south polar quasi-periodic 40-50 min (QP-40) activities and the model scenario for global QP-40 oscillations of the Jovian inner radiation belt (IRB), we validate relevant predictions and confirmations by amassing empirical evidence from Ulysses, Cassini, Chandra, Galileo, XMM-Newton, and Advanced Composition Explorer for Jupiter north polar QP-40 activities. We report ground 6cm radio observations of Jupiter by Urumqi 25m telescope for synchrotron intensity bursty var...

  5. Modeling and prediction of daily gas concentration variation at a mining face based on the elliptic orbit model:A case study

    Yang Zongchang; Zhou Shaowu

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring and analysis of daily gas concentrations at a mining face is a vital task on safety production and security management in the coal-mining industry. This study addresses modeling and prediction of daily gas concentration variations based on the elliptic orbit model. The model describes the hourly variation in daily gas concentration by mapping its time-series into the polar coordinates to create its elliptic orbit trace for further analysis. Experiments show workability of the proposed method that daily gas concentration variation at a mining face of one coal mine in China is well described by the elliptic orbit model. Result analysis and performance comparison of the proposed elliptic orbit model with the classical AR model on the same prediction tasks indicate potentiality of the proposed elliptic orbit model, which presents a vivid approach for modeling and forecasting daily gas concentration variations in an intuitive and concise way.

  6. VFC - Variational Feedback Controller and its application to semi-active suspensions

    Pepe, G.; Carcaterra, A.

    2016-08-01

    Active and semi-active control of oscillating devices and structures is a challenging field and this paper proposes an original investigation based on variational controls that can be successfully applied to mechanical systems. The method produces a general class of new controllers, named VFC - Variational Feedback Controllers, that is the main theoretical contribution of the paper. The value of the theory relies on using a reformulation of the Variational Optimal Control Theory, that has in general the limit of producing control program strategies and not directly feedback control methods. The difficulties are in fact related to the intrinsic nature of the variational optimal control, that must solve initial and final boundary conditions. A special definition of the class of the considered objective functions, permits to skip this difficulty, producing a pure feedback control. The presented theory goes beyond with respect to the most acknowledged LQR variational-based techniques, in that VFC can be applied to more general nonlinear dynamical systems, even with finite time horizon. To test the effectiveness of the novel approach in real engineering problems, a deep investigation on nonlinear suspension systems treated by VFC is proposed in this paper. To this aim, VFC is systematically compared with the most recent methods available in this field and suitable to deal with nonlinear system control of car suspensions. In particular, the comparative analysis is made in terms of both comfort and handling key performance indexes, that permits to easily and significantly compare different control logics, such as the Sky-hook and Ground-hook control families, the Acceleration and Power Driven Dampers. The results of this comparison are collected in a performance plane, having comfort and handling indexes as coordinate axes, showing that VFC controllers completely cover the regions reached by the other mentioned control logics in this plane, but reveal to have access to

  7. The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

    Bejranonda, Werapol

    2014-01-01

    The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai ...

  8. Predicting Classroom Achievement from Active Responding on a Computer-Based Groupware System.

    Shin, Jongho; Deno, Stanley L.; Robinson, Steven L.; Marston, Douglas

    2000-01-01

    The predictive validity of active responding on a computer-based groupware system was examined with 48 second graders. Results showed that active responding correlated highly with initial and final performance measures and that active responding contributed significantly to predicting final performance when initial performance was controlled.…

  9. Individual Variation in the Propensity to Attribute Incentive Salience to an Appetitive Cue Predicts the Propensity to Attribute Motivational Salience to an Aversive Cue

    Morrow, Jonathan D.; Maren, Stephen; ROBINSON, TERRY E.

    2011-01-01

    It has been proposed that animals that attribute high levels of incentive salience to reward-related cues may be especially vulnerable to addiction. Individual variation has also been observed in the motivational value attributed to aversive cues, which may confer vulnerability to anxiety disorders such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). There may be a core behavioral trait that contributes to individual variation in the motivational value assigned to predictive cues regardless of emot...

  10. Surface tensions of multi-component mixed inorganic/organic aqueous systems of atmospheric significance: measurements, model predictions and importance for cloud activation predictions

    D. O. Topping

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict the physical properties of aerosol particles, it is necessary to adequately capture the behaviour of the ubiquitous complex organic components. One of the key properties which may affect this behaviour is the contribution of the organic components to the surface tension of aqueous particles in the moist atmosphere. Whilst the qualitative effect of organic compounds on solution surface tensions has been widely reported, our quantitative understanding on mixed organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems is limited.  Furthermore, it is unclear whether models that exist in the literature can reproduce the surface tension variability for binary and higher order multi-component organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems of atmospheric significance. The current study aims to resolve both issues to some extent. Surface tensions of single and multiple solute aqueous solutions were measured and compared with predictions from a number of model treatments. On comparison with binary organic systems, two predictive models found in the literature provided a range of values resulting from sensitivity to calculations of pure component surface tensions.  Results indicate that a fitted model can capture the variability of the measured data very well, producing the lowest average percentage deviation for all compounds studied.  The performance of the other models varies with compound and choice of model parameters. The behaviour of ternary mixed inorganic/organic systems was unreliably captured by using a predictive scheme and this was composition dependent. For more "realistic" higher order systems, entirely predictive schemes performed poorly. It was found that use of the binary data in a relatively simple mixing rule, or modification of an existing thermodynamic model with parameters derived from binary data, was able to accurately capture the surface tension variation with concentration. Thus, it would appear that in order to model

  11. Activity Variation of Phanerochaete chrysosporium under Nanosilver Exposure by Controlling of Different Sulfide Sources

    Guo, Zhi; Chen, Guiqiu; Liu, Lingzhi; Zeng, Guangming; Huang, Zhenzhen; Chen, Anwei; Hu, Liang

    2016-02-01

    Due to the particular activation and inhibition behavior of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) on microbes at various concentrations, it’s crucial to exploit the special concentration effect in environment. Here, we studied the viability variation of Phanerochaete chrysosporium (P. chrysosporium) under exposure to citrate-coated AgNPs (Citrate-AgNPs) in the presence of different sulfide sources (an inorganic sulfide, NaHS and an organic sulfide, thioacetamide (TAA)). The results indicated that both NaHS and TAA can promote activation of P. chrysosporium by Citrate-AgNPs at a higher concentration, which was initial at toxic level. Treatment with various concentrations of Citrate-AgNPs (0-9 mg/L) demonstrated a maximum activation concentration (MAC) at 3 mg/L. With the increase in sulfide concentration, MAC transferred to higher concentration significantly, indicating the obvious “toxicity to activation” transformation at a higher concentration. Ag+ testing exhibited that variations in sulfide-induced Ag+ concentration (3-7 μg/L Ag+) accounted for the “toxicity to activation” transformation. In addition, the similar results were observed on antibacterial application using Escherichia coli as the model species. Based on the research results, the application of this transformation in improving antibacterial activity was proposed. Therefore, the antibacterial activity of AgNPs can be controlled, even at concentration, via adjusting for the sulfide concentration.

  12. Diurnal Variation in Gravity Wave Activity at Low and Middle Latitudes

    Andrioli, V. F.; Fritts, D. C.; Batista, P. P.; Clemesha, B. R.; Janches, Diego

    2013-01-01

    We employ a modified composite day extension of the Hocking (2005) analysis method to study gravity wave (GW) activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere using 4 meteor radars spanning latitudes from 7deg S to 53.6deg S. Diurnal and semidiurnal modulations were observed in GW variances over all sites. Semidiurnal modulation with downward phase propagation was observed at lower latitudes mainly near the equinoxes. Diurnal modulations occur mainly near solstice and, except for the zonal component at Cariri (7deg S), do not exhibit downward phase propagation. At a higher latitude (SAAMER, 53.6deg S) these modulations are only observed in the meridional component where we can observe diurnal variation from March to May, and semidiurnal, during January, February, October (above 88 km) and November. Some of these modulations with downward phase progression correlate well with wind shear. When the wind shear is well correlated with the maximum of the variances the diurnal tide has its largest amplitudes, i.e., near equinox. Correlations exhibiting variations with tidal phases suggest significant GW-tidal interactions that have different characters depending on the tidal components and possible mean wind shears. Modulations that do not exhibit phase variations could be indicative of diurnal variations in GW sources.

  13. Origins of the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity in 1954 and 1996

    L. Svalgaard

    Full Text Available We investigate the cause of the unusually strong semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity observed in the solar minimum years of 1954 and 1996. For 1996 we separate the contributions of the three classical modulation mechanisms (axial, equinoctial, and Russell-McPherron to the six-month wave in the aam index and find that all three contribute about equally. This is in contrast to the longer run of geomagnetic activity (1868-1998 over which the equinoctial effect accounts for ∼70% of the semiannual variation. For both 1954 and 1996, we show that the Russell-McPherron effect was enhanced by the Rosenberg-Coleman effect (an axial polarity effect which increased the amount of the negative (toward Sun [positive (away from Sun] polarity field observed during the first [second] half of the year; such fields yield a southward component in GSM coordinates. Because this favourable condition occurs only for alternate solar cycles, the marked semiannual variation in 1954 and 1996 is a manifestation of the 22-year cycle of geomagnetic activity. The 11-year evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS also contributes to the strong six-month wave during these years. At solar minimum, the streamer belt at the base of the HCS is located near the solar equator, permitting easier access to high speed streams from polar coronal holes when the Earth is at its highest heliographic latitudes in March and September. Such an axial variation in solar wind speed was observed for 1996 and is inferred for 1954. Key words. Magnetosphere (solar wind – magnetosphere interactions; storms and substorms

  14. Long-term stellar activity variations of stars from the HARPS M-dwarf sample: Comparison between activity indices

    da Silva, J Gomes; Bonfils, X

    2010-01-01

    We used four known chromospheric activity indicators to measure long-term activity variations in a sample of 23 M-dwarf stars from the HARPS planet search program. We compared the indices using weighted Pearson correlation coefficients and found that in general (i) the correlation between $S_{CaII}$ and \\ion{Na}{i} is very strong and does not depend on the activity level of the stars, (ii) the correlation between our $S_{CaII}$ and H$\\alpha$ seems to depend on the activity level of the stars, and (iii) there is no strong correlation between $S_{CaII}$ and \\ion{He}{i} for these type of stars.

  15. Interindividual Variation in Functionally Adapted Trait Sets Is Established During Postnatal Growth and Predictable Based on Bone Robustness

    Pandey, Nirnimesh; Bhola, Siddharth; Goldstone, Andrew; Chen, Fred; Chrzanowski, Jessica; Terranova, Carl J.; Ghillani, Richard

    2009-01-01

    Adults acquire unique sets of morphological and tissue-quality bone traits that are predictable based on robustness and deterministic of strength and fragility. How and when individual trait sets arise during growth has not been established. Longitudinal structural changes of the metacarpal diaphysis were measured for boys and girls from 3 mo to 8 yr of age using hand radiographs obtained from the Bolton-Brush collection. Robustness varied ∼2-fold among boys and girls, and individual values were established by 2 yr of age, indicating that genetic and environmental factors controlling the relationship between growth in width and growth in length were established early during postnatal growth. Significant negative correlations between robustness and relative cortical area and a significant positive correlation between robustness and a novel measure capturing the efficiency of growth indicated that coordination of the subperiosteal and endocortical surfaces was responsible for this population acquiring a narrow range of trait sets that was predictable based on robustness. Boys and girls with robust diaphyses had proportionally thinner cortices to minimize mass, whereas children with slender diaphyses had proportionally thicker cortices to maximize stiffness. Girls had more slender metacarpals with proportionally thicker cortices compared with boys at all prepubertal ages. Although postnatal growth patterns varied in fundamentally different ways with sex and robustness, the dependence of trait sets on robustness indicated that children sustained variants affecting subperiosteal growth because they shared a common biological factor regulating functional adaptation. Considering the natural variation in acquired trait sets may help identify determinants of fracture risk, because age-related bone loss and gain will affect slender and robust structures differently. PMID:20001599

  16. Between-school variation in physical activity, aerobic fitness, and organized sports participation

    Kristensen, Peter L; Olesen, Line G; Ried-Larsen, Mathias;

    2013-01-01

    Abstract A large proportion of a child's day is spent at school interacting with certain physical surroundings, teachers, and school friends. Thus, schools could have a marked impact on establishing physical activity habits. The aim of the present study was to assess between-school variation in...... physical activity, aerobic fitness, and organized sports participation. Altogether, we tested 1766 nine- and fifteen-year-old children attending 242 school classes at 35 different schools in Denmark in 1997-2003. The intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for objectively assessed physical activity...... ranged between 0.06 and 0.18 depending on the dimension of physical activity and the time considered (i.e. school time vs. leisure time). For aerobic fitness, an ICC of 0.10 was observed, whereas that for organized sports participation ranged between 0.01 and 0.10 depending on the age group. Studying...

  17. CES1 genetic variation affects the activation of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors.

    Wang, X; Wang, G; Shi, J; Aa, J; Comas, R; Liang, Y; Zhu, H-J

    2016-06-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the effect of carboxylesterase 1 (CES1) genetic variation on the activation of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) prodrugs. In vitro incubation study of human liver, intestine and kidney s9 fractions demonstrated that the ACEI prodrugs enalapril, ramipril, perindopril, moexipril and fosinopril are selectively activated by CES1 in the liver. The impact of CES1/CES1VAR and CES1P1/CES1P1VAR genotypes and diplotypes on CES1 expression and activity on enalapril activation was investigated in 102 normal human liver samples. Neither the genotypes nor the diplotypes affected hepatic CES1 expression and activity. Moreover, among several CES1 nonsynonymous variants studied in transfected cell lines, the G143E (rs71647871) was a loss-of-function variant for the activation of all ACEIs tested. The CES1 activity on enalapril activation in human livers with the 143G/E genotype was approximately one-third of that carrying the 143G/G. Thus, some functional CES1 genetic variants (for example, G143E) may impair ACEI activation, and consequently affect therapeutic outcomes of ACEI prodrugs. PMID:26076923

  18. Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale.

    Zharkova, V V; Shepherd, S J; Popova, E; Zharkov, S I

    2015-01-01

    We derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21-24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26-27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α - Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350-400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale. PMID:26511513

  19. Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale

    Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Popova, E.; Zharkov, S. I.

    2015-10-01

    We derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21-24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regeression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26-27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α - Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350-400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale.

  20. Variations of 14-C around AD 775 and AD 1795 - due to solar activity

    Neuhaeuser, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    The motivation for our study is the disputed cause for the strong variation of 14-C around AD 775. Our method is to compare the 14-C variation around AD 775 with other periods of strong variability. Our results are: (a) We see three periods, where 14-C varied over 200 yr in a special way showing a certain pattern of strong secular variation: after a Grand Minimum with strongly increasing 14-C, there is a series of strong short-term drop(s), rise(s), and again drop(s) within 60 yr, ending up to 200 yr after the start of the Grand Minimum. These three periods include the strong rises around BC 671, AD 775, and AD 1795. (b) We show with several solar activity proxies (radioisotopes, sunspots, and aurorae) for the AD 770s and 1790s that such intense rapid 14-C increases can be explained by strong rapid decreases in solar activity and, hence, wind, so that the decrease in solar modulation potential leads to an increase in radioisotope production. (c) The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects...

  1. THE FIRST RESULTS OF STUDIES OF TEMPORARY VARIATIONS IN SOILRADON ACTIVITY OF FAULTS IN WESTERN PRIBAIKALIE

    К. Zh. Seminsky

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Radon concentrations in soil air are variable depending on factors that are considered external (planetary and internal (geodynamic relative to the Earth. In active fault zones, variations of gas emanations are most intense. A permanent monitoring station was established near Tyrgan settlement in Western Pribaikalie to study temporal variations of soil radon concentration, Q, in the faults of the Baikal rift, East Siberia. This station is located in the zone of the Primorsky normal fault that is the largest in the region. The station is equipped with radon radiometer PPA01M03 that records Q values every 85 minutes and also monitors a number of meteorological parameters, including atmospheric pressure, humidity, and air temperature.We analysed records of two measurement sessions (148 and 66 days covering a part of the year during which field measurement of Q are possible in the cold climate conditions of the area under study. According to the available monitoring data, variations of radon concentrations in the Primorsky fault zone may vary by more than one order of magnitude through a springsummerautumn period, and such variations are oscillatory. Significant changes of permeability in time occur due to intensive changes in the state of stresses of the rock massives under the impacts of the planetary and geodynamic factors. The influence of the first group of factors, i.e. planetary ones, is manifested by synchronous oscillations of radon concentrations and atmospheric pressure, which phases of occurrence are opposed. Domination of daily and fourday periods gives evidence that the state of stresses of the rock massives is impacted by the lunar tides and cyclonic phenomena associated with the interaction between the Earth and the Sun. The influence of the second group of factors, i.e. geodynamic ones, is suggested by an evident relation between radon emanations and seismic events, including the catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 11, 2011, M=9

  2. Clinical relevance of pulse pressure variations for predicting fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated intensive care unit patients: the grey zone approach

    Biais, Matthieu; Ehrmann, Stephan; Mari, Arnaud; Conte, Benjamin; Mahjoub, Yazine; Desebbe, Olivier; Pottecher, Julien; Lakhal, Karim; Benzekri-Lefevre, Dalila; Molinari, Nicolas; Boulain, Thierry; Lefrant, Jean-Yves; Muller, Laurent; ,

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Pulse pressure variation (PPV) has been shown to predict fluid responsiveness in ventilated intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The present study was aimed at assessing the diagnostic accuracy of PPV for prediction of fluid responsiveness by using the grey zone approach in a large population. Methods The study pooled data of 556 patients from nine French ICUs. Hemodynamic (PPV, central venous pressure (CVP) and cardiac output) and ventilator variables were recorded. Responders we...

  3. Seasonal Variation, Chemical Composition and Antioxidant Activity of Brazilian Propolis Samples

    Érica Weinstein Teixeira

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Total phenolic contents, antioxidant activity and chemical composition of propolis samples from three localities of Minas Gerais state (southeast Brazil were determined. Total phenolic contents were determined by the Folin–Ciocalteau method, antioxidant activity was evaluated by DPPH, using BHT as reference, and chemical composition was analyzed by GC/MS. Propolis from Itapecerica and Paula Cândido municipalities were found to have high phenolic contents and pronounced antioxidant activity. From these extracts, 40 substances were identified, among them were simple phenylpropanoids, prenylated phenylpropanoids, sesqui- and diterpenoids. Quantitatively, the main constituent of both samples was allyl-3-prenylcinnamic acid. A sample from Virginópolis municipality had no detectable phenolic substances and contained mainly triterpenoids, the main constituents being α- and β-amyrins. Methanolic extracts from Itapecerica and Paula Cândido exhibited pronounced scavenging activity towards DPPH, indistinguishable from BHT activity. However, extracts from Virginópolis sample exhibited no antioxidant activity. Total phenolic substances, GC/MS analyses and antioxidant activity of samples from Itapecerica collected monthly over a period of 1 year revealed considerable variation. No correlation was observed between antioxidant activity and either total phenolic contents or contents of artepillin C and other phenolic substances, as assayed by CG/MS analysis.

  4. Intraspecific variation of biological activities in venoms from wild and captive Bothrops jararaca.

    Saad, Eduardo; Curtolo Barros, Luciana; Biscola, Natalia; Pimenta, Daniel C; Barraviera, Silvia R C S; Barraviera, Benedito; Seabra Ferreira, Rui

    2012-01-01

    The venom of Bothrops jararaca is composed of complex mixture of molecules, mainly lectins, metalloproteinases, serinoproteinases, desintegrins, phospholipases, and peptides. This composition may vary according to the snake's age, gender, and region of origin. The aim of the was to determine individual variation in Bothrops jararaca venom in the Botucatu region, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, by means of enzymatic, biochemical, and pharmacological characterization, utilizing in vitro tests and biological assays. The activities were compared with those of Brazilian Reference Venom (BRV). Protein concentration varied between adult and juvenile groups. The electrophoretic profiles were similar, with molecular masses ranging between 25 and 50 kD, but with intraspecific variations. Reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) revealed protein concentration differences. Coagulant activity did not differ significantly among adult groups, but there was a large variation between juvenile venom and BRV, which coagulated more extensively. Venoms from adults displayed greater hemorrhagic activity, especially in males recently obtained from the wild. In contrast, juveniles kept in captivity and adult males showed higher values. Edematogenic activity displayed an increase in edema in all groups. At the mean lethal dose (LD₅₀), toxicity varied significantly between groups, with venom from captive females being threefold more toxic than juvenile venom. Data illustrate the intra- and interspecific complexity that occurs in snake venoms, which may be attributed to ontogenetic, sexual, and environmental factors that affect variability in Bothrops jararaca venom. Further, it is proposed that Brazilian public health authorities document the constitution of pooled venom employed in the immunization of serum-producing animals due to this variability in venom properties. Given the large Brazilian territory, this variability requires regional monitoring and evaluation of

  5. Sensitivity of predicted scaling and permeability in Enhanced Geothermal Systems to Thermodynamic Data and Activity Models

    Hingerl, Ferdinand F.; Wagner, Thomas; Kulik, Dmitrii A.; Kosakowski, Georg; Driesner, Thomas; Thomsen, Kaj

    2010-05-01

    A consortium of research groups from ETH Zurich, EPF Lausanne, the Paul Scherrer Institut and the University of Bonn collaborates in a comprehensive program of basic research on key aspects of the Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGSs). As part of this GEOTHERM project (www.geotherm.ethz.ch), we concentrate on the fundamental investigation of thermodynamic models suitable for describing fluid-rock interactions at geothermal conditions. Predictions of the fluid-rock interaction in EGS still face several major challenges. Slight variations in the input thermodynamic and kinetic parameters may result in significant differences in the predicted mineral solubilities and stable assemblage. Realistic modeling of mineral precipitation in turn has implications onto our understanding of the permeability evolution of the geothermal reservoir, as well as the scaling in technical installations. In order to reasonably model an EGS, thermodynamic databases and activity models must be tailored to geothermal conditions. We therefore implemented in GEMS code the Pitzer formalism, which is the standard model used for computing thermodynamic excess properties of brines at elevated temperatures and pressures. This model, however, depends on a vast amount of interaction parameters, which are to a substantial extend unknown. Furthermore, a high order polynomial temperature interpolation makes extrapolation unreliable if not impossible. As an alternative we additionally implemented the EUNIQUAC activity model. EUNIQUAC requires fewer empirical fit parameters (only binary interaction parameters needed) and uses simpler and more stable temperature and pressure extrapolations. This results in an increase in computation speed, which is of crucial importance when performing coupled long term simulations of geothermal reservoirs. To achieve better performance under geothermal conditions, we are currently partly reformulating EUNIQUAC and refitting the existing parameter set. First results of the

  6. Factors Predicting Physical Activity Among Children With Special Needs

    Shahram Yazdani, MD

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Obesity is especially prevalent among children with special needs. Both lack of physical activity and unhealthful eating are major contributing factors. The objective of our study was to investigate barriers to physical activity among these children. Methods We surveyed parents of the 171 children attending Vista Del Mar School in Los Angeles, a nonprofit school serving a socioeconomically diverse group of children with special needs from kindergarten through 12th grade. Parents were asked about their child’s and their own physical activity habits, barriers to their child’s exercise, and demographics. The response rate was 67%. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine predictors of children being physically active at least 3 hours per week. Results Parents reported that 45% of the children were diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, 38% with autism, and 34% with learning disabilities; 47% of children and 56% of parents were physically active less than 3 hours per week. The top barriers to physical activity were reported as child’s lack of interest (43%, lack of developmentally appropriate programs (33%, too many behavioral problems (32%, and parents’ lack of time (29%. However, child’s lack of interest was the only parent-reported barrier independently associated with children’s physical activity. Meanwhile, children whose parents were physically active at least 3 hours per week were 4.2 times as likely to be physically active as children whose parents were less physically active (P = .01. Conclusion In this group of students with special needs, children’s physical activity was strongly associated with parental physical activity; parent-reported barriers may have had less direct effect. Further studies should examine the importance of parental physical activity among children with special needs.

  7. Variations of 14C around AD 775 and AD 1795 - due to solar activity

    Neuhäuser, R.; Neuhäuser, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The motivation for our study is the disputed cause for the strong variation of 14C around AD 775. Our method is to compare the 14C variation around AD 775 with other periods of strong variability. Our results are: (a) We see three periods, where 14C varied over 200 yr in a special way showing a certain pattern of strong secular variation: after a Grand Minimum with strongly increasing 14C, there is a series of strong short-term drop(s), rise(s), and again drop(s) within 60 yr, ending up to 200 yr after the start of the Grand Minimum. These three periods include the strong rises around BC 671, AD 775, and AD 1795. (b) We show with several solar activity proxies (radioisotopes, sunspots, and aurorae) for the AD 770s and 1790s that such intense rapid 14C increases can be explained by strong rapid decreases in solar activity and, hence, wind, so that the decrease in solar modulation potential leads to an increase in radioisotope production. (c) The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects, (i) very strong activity in the previous cycles (i.e. very low 14C level), (ii) the declining phase of a very strong Schwabe cycle, and (iii) a phase of very weak activity after the strong 14C rise - very short and/or weak cycle(s) like the suddenly starting Dalton minimum. (d) Furthermore, we can show that the strong change at AD 1795 happened after a pair of two packages of four Schwabe cycles with certain hemispheric leadership (each package consists of two Gnevyshev-Ohl pairs, respectively two Hale-Babcock pairs). We show with several additional arguments that the rise around AD 775 was not that special. We conclude that such large, short-term rises in 14C (around BC 671, AD 775, and 1795) do not need to be explained by highly unlikely solar super-flares nor other rare events, but by extra-solar cosmic rays modulated due to solar activity variations.

  8. Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry

    Marsula, K.; Tanskanen, E.; Love, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993–2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a dominant annual variation, with equinoctial maxima alternating between Spring in solar cycle 22 and Fall in cycle 23. The largest annual variations were found in 1994 and 2003, in the declining phase of the two cycles when high-speed streams dominate the solar wind. A similar, large annual variation is found in the solar wind driver of substorms and geomagnetic activity, which implies that the annual variation of substorm strength, substorm efficiency and geomagnetic activity is not due to ionospheric conditions but to a hemispherically asymmetric distribution of solar wind which varies from one cycle to another. Our results imply that the overall semiannual variation in global geomagnetic activity has been seriously overestimated, and is largely an artifact of the dominant annual variation with maxima alternating between Spring and Fall. The results also suggest an intimate connection between the asymmetry of solar magnetic fields and some of the largest geomagnetic disturbances, offering interesting new pathways for forecasting disturbances with a longer lead time to the future.

  9. Resting alpha activity predicts learning ability in alpha neurofeedback

    Wenya eNan; Feng eWan; Mang I eVai; Agostinho eRosa

    2014-01-01

    Individuals differ in their ability to learn how to regulate the alpha activity by neurofeedback. This study aimed to investigate whether the resting alpha activity is related to the learning ability of alpha enhancement in neurofeedback and could be used as a predictor. A total of 25 subjects performed 20 sessions of individualized alpha neurofeedback in order to learn how to enhance activity in the alpha frequency band. The learning ability was assessed by three indices respectively: the tr...

  10. Genetic variation in COMT activity impacts learning and dopamine release capacity in the striatum

    Simpson, Eleanor H.; Morud, Julia; Winiger, Vanessa; Biezonski, Dominik; Zhu, Judy P.; Bach, Mary Elizabeth; Malleret, Gael; Polan, H. Jonathan; Ng-Evans, Scott; Phillips, Paul E.M.; Kellendonk, Christoph; Kandel, Eric R.

    2014-01-01

    A common genetic polymorphism that results in increased activity of the dopamine regulating enzyme COMT (the COMT Val158 allele) has been found to associate with poorer cognitive performance and increased susceptibility to develop psychiatric disorders. It is generally assumed that this increase in COMT activity influences cognitive function and psychiatric disease risk by increasing dopamine turnover in cortical synapses, though this cannot be directly measured in humans. Here we explore a novel transgenic mouse model of increased COMT activity, equivalent to the relative increase in activity observed with the human COMT Val158 allele. By performing an extensive battery of behavioral tests, we found that COMT overexpressing mice (COMT-OE mice) exhibit cognitive deficits selectively in the domains that are affected by the COMT Val158 allele, stimulus–response learning and working memory, functionally validating our model of increased COMT activity. Although we detected no changes in the level of markers for dopamine synthesis and dopamine transport, we found that COMT-OE mice display an increase in dopamine release capacity in the striatum. This result suggests that increased COMT activity may not only affect dopamine signaling by enhancing synaptic clearance in the cortex, but may also cause changes in presynaptic dopamine function in the striatum. These changes may underlie the behavioral deficits observed in the mice and might also play a role in the cognitive deficits and increased psychiatric disease risk associated with genetic variation in COMT activity in humans. PMID:24639487

  11. LSD-induced entropic brain activity predicts subsequent personality change.

    Lebedev, A V; Kaelen, M; Lövdén, M; Nilsson, J; Feilding, A; Nutt, D J; Carhart-Harris, R L

    2016-09-01

    Personality is known to be relatively stable throughout adulthood. Nevertheless, it has been shown that major life events with high personal significance, including experiences engendered by psychedelic drugs, can have an enduring impact on some core facets of personality. In the present, balanced-order, placebo-controlled study, we investigated biological predictors of post-lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) changes in personality. Nineteen healthy adults underwent resting state functional MRI scans under LSD (75µg, I.V.) and placebo (saline I.V.). The Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) was completed at screening and 2 weeks after LSD/placebo. Scanning sessions consisted of three 7.5-min eyes-closed resting-state scans, one of which involved music listening. A standardized preprocessing pipeline was used to extract measures of sample entropy, which characterizes the predictability of an fMRI time-series. Mixed-effects models were used to evaluate drug-induced shifts in brain entropy and their relationship with the observed increases in the personality trait openness at the 2-week follow-up. Overall, LSD had a pronounced global effect on brain entropy, increasing it in both sensory and hierarchically higher networks across multiple time scales. These shifts predicted enduring increases in trait openness. Moreover, the predictive power of the entropy increases was greatest for the music-listening scans and when "ego-dissolution" was reported during the acute experience. These results shed new light on how LSD-induced shifts in brain dynamics and concomitant subjective experience can be predictive of lasting changes in personality. Hum Brain Mapp 37:3203-3213, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27151536

  12. Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity

    Marco Del Negro

    2001-01-01

    Policy and investment decisions are made with an eye toward future economic conditions, and an econometric model that can correctly forecast directional changes in the business cycle would be a boon to policymakers, the business community, and the general public. This article provides some evidence on econometric models' ability to predict these directional changes, also known as turning points, in an effort to answer the question, How good is the state of the art in turning point forecasting...

  13. Long-term variation in the Sun's activity caused by magnetic Rossby waves in the tachocline

    Zaqarashvili, T. V.; Oliver, R.; Hanslmeier, A.; Carbonell, M.; Ballester, J. L.; Gachechiladze, T.; I. G. Usoskin

    2015-01-01

    Long-term records of sunspot number and concentrations of cosmogenic radionuclides (10Be and 14C) on the Earth reveal the variation of the Sun's magnetic activity over hundreds and thousands of years. We identify several clear periods in sunspot, 10Be, and 14C data as 1000, 500, 350, 200 and 100 years. We found that the periods of the first five spherical harmonics of the slow magnetic Rossby mode in the presence of a steady toroidal magnetic field of 1200-1300 G in the lower tachocline are i...

  14. An Active Gain-control System for Avalanche Photo-Diodes under Moderate Temperature Variations

    Kataoka, J; Ikagawa, T; Kotoku, J; Kuramoto, Y; Tsubuku, Y; Saitô, T; Yatsu, Y; Kawai, N; Ishikawa, Y; Kawabata, N

    2006-01-01

    Avalanche photodiodes (APDs) are promising light sensor for various fields of experimental physics. It has been argued, however, that variation of APD gain with temperature could be a serious problem preventing APDs from replacing traditional photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) in some applications. Here we develop an active gain-control system to keep the APD gain stable under moderate temperature variations. As a performance demonstration of the proposed system, we have tested the response of a scintillation photon detector consisting of a 5x5 mm^2 reverse-type APD optically coupled with a CsI(Tl) crystal. We show that the APD gain was successfully controlled under a temperature variation of DT = 20deg, within a time-cycle of 6000 sec. The best FWHM energy resolution of 6.1+-0.2 % was obtained for 662 keV gamma-rays, and the energy threshold was as low as 6.5 keV, by integrating data from +20deg - 0deg cycles. The corresponding values for -20deg - 0deg cycles were 6.9+-0.2 % and 5.2 keV, respectively. These result...

  15. Long-term variation in the Sun's activity caused by magnetic Rossby waves in the tachocline

    Zaqarashvili, T V; Hanslmeier, A; Carbonell, M; Ballester, J L; Gachechiladze, T; Usoskin, I G

    2015-01-01

    Long-term records of sunspot number and concentrations of cosmogenic radionuclides (10Be and 14C) on the Earth reveal the variation of the Sun's magnetic activity over hundreds and thousands of years. We identify several clear periods in sunspot, 10Be, and 14C data as 1000, 500, 350, 200 and 100 years. We found that the periods of the first five spherical harmonics of the slow magnetic Rossby mode in the presence of a steady toroidal magnetic field of 1200-1300 G in the lower tachocline are in perfect agreement with the time scales of observed variations. The steady toroidal magnetic field can be generated in the lower tachocline either due to the steady dynamo magnetic field for low magnetic diffusivity or due to the action of the latitudinal differential rotation on the weak poloidal primordial magnetic field, which penetrates from the radiative interior. The slow magnetic Rossby waves lead to variations of the steady toroidal magnetic field in the lower tachocline, which modulate the dynamo magnetic field ...

  16. Solar Activity and Cloud Opacity Variations A Modulated Cosmic-Ray Ionization Model

    Marsden, D C; Marsden, David; Lingenfelter, Richard E.

    2002-01-01

    The observed correlation between global low cloud amount and the flux of high energy cosmic-rays supports the idea that ionization plays a crucial role in tropospheric cloud formation. We explore this idea quantitatively with a simple model of cosmic-ray ionization enhancement of the formation of cloud condensation nuclei. This model predicts that solar modulation of the cosmic-ray ionization rate should be correlated with cloud opacity where the atmospheric aerosol concentration is low. Using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project database (1983-1993), we find that the mean opacity of low latitude (40 degrees) clouds, on the other hand, show an anti-correlation with cosmic-ray flux, which we suggest may be a feedback effect resulting from the thicker low latitude clouds. We also show that the previously reported correlations of cloud amount with cosmic-ray flux probably result from the variations in longwave emissivity expected from our model, and not from variations in cloud amount. Further g...

  17. INTRASPECIFIC VARIATION IN NEUROTOXIC AND MYOTOXIC ACTIVITIES OF Bothrops neuwiedii VENOMS

    C. R. BORJA-OLIVEIRA

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Snake venoms frequently vary in composition. In this work, we compared the neurotoxic and myotoxic activities of 16 lots of Bothrops neuwiedii venoms from different regions of Brazil, using chick biventer cervicis preparations. The neuromuscular blockade varied from 2% to 100% after 120 min incubation with venoms (50 mug/ml. In all cases, this blockade was irreversible and concentration-dependent; at low concentrations (10-20 mug/ml, 15 of the 16 venom lots failed to abolish responses to acetylcholine (110 muM, but blocked responses to KCl (13.4 muM, and induced contracture. At 5-20 mug/ml, the most active venom totally blocked twitch-tension without affecting responses to acetylcholine and KCl. Polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis for basic proteins showed that the most active samples contained a band that was absent in the less active venoms. These results indicate that there may be considerable intraspecific variation in the neurotoxic activity of B. neuwiedii venoms, whereas myotoxic activity is less variable.

  18. Mapping Activity Variations for Ru2O3 in Lunar Volcanic Green Glass Analogs Using Differential Pulse Voltammetry

    Malum, K. M.; Colson, R. O.; Sawarynski, M.

    2001-01-01

    Using differential pulse voltammetry, we are mapping variations in activities for NiO and Ru2O3 as a function of compositional variation for compositions centered around an Apollo 15 green glass analog. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  19. Study of variations of radon emanations from soil in Morocco using solid state nuclear track detectors. Correlations with atmospheric parameters and seismic activities

    This study investigates the quantity variations of radon emanating from soil in accordance with time. It aims to verify the possibility of the radon sign use in earthquake prediction. Regular measures of radon concentration in soil have been carried out over the two years 1991 and 1992 in five towns of Morocco: Rabat, Tetouan, Ifrane and Khouribga, and in geophysic observatory of Ibn Rochd (Berchid region). The measuring method is based on the solid state nuclear track detectors technique. The obtained results have shown an influence of the atmospheric effects on the radon emanation. The experiment proved that, on one hand, the variations of the aforesaid influence are correlated to variations of the pluviometry and the atmospheric temperature and, on the other hand, there is no notable effect of atmospheric pressure or atmospheric humidity. The good correlations between the different seismic activities and the variations of radon emanation rate in the five measurement stations, have shown the interest of radon use in the earthquake prediction field. 81 refs., 100 figs., 17 tabs.(F. M.)

  20. Transfer Student Success: Educationally Purposeful Activities Predictive of Undergraduate GPA

    Fauria, Renee M.; Fuller, Matthew B.

    2015-01-01

    Researchers evaluated the effects of Educationally Purposeful Activities (EPAs) on transfer and nontransfer students' cumulative GPAs. Hierarchical, linear, and multiple regression models yielded seven statistically significant educationally purposeful items that influenced undergraduate student GPAs. Statistically significant positive EPAs for…

  1. A predictive control algorithm for an active three-phase power filter

    R.V. Vlasenko; Bialobrzeski, O. V.

    2014-01-01

    The paper deals with grid connection circuits for active filters, structures of active power filter control systems, and methods based on full capacity components determination. The existing structures of active power filter control and control algorithm adjustment for valve commutation loss reduction are analyzed. A predictive control algorithm for an active three-phase power filter is introduced.

  2. Anxiety symptoms and disorder predict activity limitations in the elderly.

    Norton, Joanna; Ancelin, Marie-Laure; Stewart, Rob; BERR, Claudine; Ritchie, Karen; Carrière, Isabelle

    2012-01-01

    International audience BACKGROUND: In the elderly, little attention has been paid to anxiety both on a symptom dimension and as a disorder, as an independent risk factor for the incidence of activity limitations. METHODS: In a community-dwelling cohort of 1581 persons aged 65+, the association between trait anxiety symptoms (Spielberger Trait, third highest tertile) and baseline DSM-IV anxiety disorder, and 7-year incident activity limitations was determined using mixed logistic regression...

  3. Variation in energy expenditure among black-legged kittiwakes: effects of activity-specific metabolic rates and activity budgets.

    Jodice, P G R; Roby, D D; Suryan, R M; Irons, D B; Kaufman, A M; Turco, K R; Visser, G H

    2003-01-01

    We sought to determine the effect of variation in time-activity budgets (TABs) and foraging behavior on energy expenditure rates of parent black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). We quantified TABs using direct observations of radio-tagged adults and simultaneously measured field metabolic rates (FMR) of these same individuals (n=20) using the doubly labeled water technique. Estimated metabolic rates of kittiwakes attending their brood at the nest or loafing near the colony were similar (ca. 1.3 x basal metabolic rate [BMR]), although loafing during foraging trips was more costly (2.9 x BMR). Metabolic rates during commuting flight (7.3 x BMR) and prey-searching flight (6.2 x BMR) were similar, while metabolic rates during plunge diving were much higher (ca. 47 x BMR). The proportion of the measurement interval spent foraging had a positive effect on FMR (R2=0.68), while the combined proportion of time engaged in nest attendance and loafing near the colony had a negative effect on FMR (R2=0.72). Thus, more than two-thirds of the variation in kittiwake FMR could be explained by the allocation of time among various activities. The high energetic cost of plunge diving relative to straight flight and searching flight suggests that kittiwakes can optimize their foraging strategy under conditions of low food availability by commuting long distances to feed in areas where gross foraging efficiency is high. PMID:12905124

  4. Variation in population exposure in China as a result of differing human activities

    Pan, Z.Q. [China Atomic Energy Authority, Beijing (China). Bureau of Safety, Protection and Health; Guo, M.Q. [China Nuclear Industry Huaqing Company, Beijing (China)

    1995-08-01

    The necessity of studying the variations in radiation levels dispassionately is discussed. Human activities may increase, but can also decrease, radiation dose to the population. Travel by air may cause a rise in population collective dose by 3.6 x 10 man.Sv, and travel by ship, train and vehicle may lead to a drop of 5.36 x 10{sup 2} man.Sv. Dwellings of coal cinder brick may increase collective dose by 3.5 x 10{sup 3} man.Sv, and buildings of reinforced concrete may decrease collective dose by 3.7 x 10{sup 3} man.Sv. It is inadequate to study only those activities which may increase radiation levels. (author).

  5. Active bacteria (CTC+) in temperate lakes: temporal and cross-system variations

    Søndergaard, Morten; Danielsen, M.

    2001-01-01

    The temporal variation in the abundance and proportion of highly respiration-active bacteria in the eutrophic lakes Esrum and Frederiksborg Slotssø was determined with the redox dye 5-cyano-2,3-ditolyl tetrazolium chloride (CTC). In addition, a comparative late summer study was undertaken across a...... gradient of nutrient enrichment in Danish lakes. The purpose was to investigate the importance of substrate (chlorophyll) and temperature for the control of CTC-active cells (CTC+). The abundance of CTC+ cells was much lower and more variable than the total number of cells counted after 4',6-diamidino-2......-phenylindole (DAPI) staining. The proportion of CTC+ cells in Lake Esrum and Frederiksborg Slotssø was normally <5%, and between 2.5 and 20% in 14 other lakes. The abundance as well as the proportion of CTC+ cells increased with chlorophyll in Lake Esrum and Frederiksborg Slotssø, and chlorophyll explained 43...

  6. Seasonal variation for the antidiabetic activity ofLoranthus micranthus methanol extract

    Patience Ogoamaka Osadebe; Edwin Ogechukwu Omeje; Philip Felix Uzor; Ernest Kenechukwu David; Damian Chiedozie Obiorah

    2010-01-01

    Objective:To determine the season in which the Eastern Nigeria mistletoe,Loranthus micranthus, parasitic onPersea americana possesses optimum antidiabetic activity and to determine the seasonal variation in the constituents.Methods: The antidiabetic activities of the aqueous methanol extracts of the leaves of Eastern Nigeria mistletoe,Loranthus micranthus, harvested in two seasons of the year, the onset of rainy season (April) and the peak of rainy season (July) were compared. The tests were carried out on six (6) groups (A-F) of alloxan-induced diabetic rats. Groups A and B received 200 mg/kg and 400 mg/kg of the April sample extracts respectively while groups C and D received same doses of the July sample extracts. Group E and F which were the positive and negative controls received 10 mg/kg of glibenclamide and 2 ml/kg of 3% tween 20 respectively. The blood glucose levels of the animals were monitored hourly with a glucometer for six hours. The phytochemical analysis of the plant extracts were also carried out by standard procedures.Results: The results showed that group A and B exhibited significant (P0.05) FBS reduction (15.9%) while group D exhibited highly significant (P<0.01) reduction (47.5%) with the maximum reduction occurring after 6 hours. The phytochemical analysis of the crude methanol extracts revealed the presence of carbohydrates, glycosides, saponins, tannins, flavonoids, steroids, terpenoids, acidic compounds, resins and oils. These were present in different proportions in both seasons.Conclusions: This study shows that there is a seasonal, dose-dependent variation in the chemical compositionviz-a-viz the antidiabetic activity of the plant under study. This activity is highest at the peak of the rainy season.

  7. Variation in GUS activity in vegetatively propagated Hevea brasiliensis transgenic plants.

    Lardet, Ludovic; Leclercq, Julie; Bénistan, Elise; Dessailly, Florence; Oliver, Gérald; Martin, Florence; Montoro, Pascal

    2011-10-01

    Hevea brasiliensis transgenic plants are regenerated from transgenic callus lines by somatic embryogenesis. Somatic embryogenesis is not yet available for commercial propagation of Hevea clones, which requires conventional grafting of buds on rootstock seedlings (budding). The stability of transgene expression in budded plants is therefore necessary for further development of genetic engineering in rubber trees. Transgene expression was assessed by fluorimetric beta-glucuronidase (GUS) activity in fully developed leaves of in vitro plants from transgenic lines and their sub-lines obtained by budding. A large variation in GUS activity was found in self-rooted in vitro plants of five transgenic lines, and the absence of activity in one line suggested transgene silencing. Beyond confirming transmissibility of the reporter gene by budding and long-term expression, a quantification of GUS activity revealed that greater variability existed in budded plants compared to self-rooted mother in vitro plants for three transgenic lines. Although somatic embryogenesis provided more stable GUS activity, budding remained an efficient way of propagating transgenic plants but transgene expression in budded plants should be verified for functional analysis and further development. PMID:21643815

  8. The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand

    Jiranyakul, Komain

    2012-01-01

    Stock market return is one of financial variables that contain information to forecast real activity such as industrial production and real GDP growth. However, it is still controversial that stock market return can have a predictive content on real activity. This paper attempts to investigate the ability of stock market return to predict industrial production growth (or real activity) in Thailand, which is an emerging market economy. The standard causality test and the equal forecast evalua...

  9. Failure Rate Prediction of Active Component Using PM Basis Database

    The safety security and efficient management of NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants) have been increased after the accident of TEPCO's Fukushima nuclear power stations. The needs for the safety and efficiency are becoming more important because about 90 percent of the NPPs all over the world are more than 20 operation years old. The preventive maintenance criteria need to be flexible, considering long-term development of the equipment performance and preventive maintenance. The PMBD (Preventive Maintenance Basis Database) program was widely used for optimization of the preventive maintenance criteria. PMBD program contains all kinds of failure mechanisms for each equipment that may occur in the power plant based on RCM(Reliability-Centered Maintenance) and numerically calculate the variation of reliability and failure rate based on PM interval changes. In this study, propriety evaluation of preventive maintenance task, cycle, technical basis for cost effective preventive maintenance strategy and an appropriate evaluation were suggested by the case application of PMBD for major components in the NPPs

  10. Social processes dynamics and geomagnetic activity. 1. Periodic component of variations of registered crimes number in Moscow

    The dynamics of crime activity in Moscow for 14 years of continuous daily registration is characterized by exponent growth of registered crime number. On background of this trend are observed harmonic components, periods of which in the majority correspond to periods of variations of geomagnetic field disturbances. The data on crime activity correlate with fluctuations of Ap-index of geomagnetic variations. 5 refs.; 3 figs

  11. Seasonal and spatial variations in microbial activity at various phylogenetic resolutions at a groundwater – surface water interface

    Yu, Ran; Smets, Barth F.; Gan, Ping;

    2014-01-01

    analysis. Consistently higher microbial activities with less variation in depth were measured in the AIMC traps than in the ambient sediments. Flood disturbance appeared to control AIMC activity distributions at the gradually elevated GSI. The highest AIMC activities were generally obtained from locations...

  12. Predicting Nitrogen Fertilizer Recommendations for Corn using an Active Sensor

    Active sensors, mounted on typical agricultural equipment, can be used to measure N (nitrogen) status in corn (Zea mays L.). This gives a producer the potential to improve N fertilizer recommendations that will reduce nitrate loss to the environment. This study examines the relationship between re...

  13. Prediction of Antibacterial Activity from Physicochemical Properties of Antimicrobial Peptides

    de Sousa Pereira Simoes de Melo, Manuel; Ferre, Rafael; Feliu, Lidia; Bardaji, Eduard; Planas, Marta; Castanho, Miguel A. R. B.

    2011-01-01

    Consensus is gathering that antimicrobial peptides that exert their antibacterial action at the membrane level must reach a local concentration threshold to become active. Studies of peptide interaction with model membranes do identify such disruptive thresholds but demonstrations of the possible co

  14. Baseline brain activity fluctuations predict somatosensory perception in humans

    Boly, M.; Balteau, E.; Schnakers, C.; Degueldre, C.; Moonen, G.; Luxen, A.; Phillips, C.; Peigneux, P.; Maquet, P.; Laureys, S.

    2007-01-01

    In perceptual experiments, within-individual fluctuations in perception are observed across multiple presentations of the same stimuli, a phenomenon that remains only partially understood. Here, by means of thulium–yttrium/aluminum–garnet laser and event-related functional MRI, we tested whether variability in perception of identical stimuli relates to differences in prestimulus, baseline brain activity. Results indicate a positive relationship between conscious perception of low-intensity somatosensory stimuli and immediately preceding levels of baseline activity in medial thalamus and the lateral frontoparietal network, respectively, which are thought to relate to vigilance and “external monitoring.” Conversely, there was a negative correlation between subsequent reporting of conscious perception and baseline activity in a set of regions encompassing posterior cingulate/precuneus and temporoparietal cortices, possibly relating to introspection and self-oriented processes. At nociceptive levels of stimulation, pain-intensity ratings positively correlated with baseline fluctuations in anterior cingulate cortex in an area known to be involved in the affective dimension of pain. These results suggest that baseline brain-activity fluctuations may profoundly modify our conscious perception of the external world. PMID:17616583

  15. Predicting and preventing the future: actively managing multiple sclerosis.

    Hutchinson, Michael

    2012-02-01

    Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) has a highly variable clinical course but a number of demographic, clinical and MRI features can guide the clinician in the assessment of disease activity and likely disability outcome. It is also clear that the inflammatory activity in the first five years of relapsing-remitting MS results in the neurodegenerative changes seen in secondary progressive MS 10-15 years later. While conventional first-line disease modifying therapy has an effect on relapses, about one third of patients have a suboptimal response to treatment. With the advent of highly active second-line therapies with their evident marked suppression of inflammation, the clinician now has the tools to manage the course of relapsing-remitting MS more effectively. The development of treatment optimisation recommendations based on the clinical response to first-line therapies can guide the neurologist in more active management of the early course of relapsing-remitting MS, with the aim of preventing both acute inflammatory axonal injury and the neurodegenerative process which leads to secondary progressive MS.

  16. Predicting Child Physical Activity and Screen Time: Parental Support for Physical Activity and General Parenting Styles

    Crain, A. Lauren; Senso, Meghan M.; Levy, Rona L.; Sherwood, Nancy E.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine relationships between parenting styles and practices and child moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and screen time. Methods: Participants were children (6.9 ± 1.8 years) with a body mass index in the 70–95th percentile and their parents (421 dyads). Parent-completed questionnaires assessed parental support for child physical activity (PA), parenting styles and child screen time. Children wore accelerometers to assess MVPA. Results: Parenting style did not predict MVPA, but support for PA did (positive association). The association between support and MVPA, moreover, varied as a function of permissive parenting. For parents high in permissiveness, the association was positive (greater support was related to greater MVPA and therefore protective). For parents low in permissiveness, the association was neutral; support did not matter. Authoritarian and permissive parenting styles were both associated with greater screen time. Conclusions: Parenting practices and styles should be considered jointly, offering implications for tailored interventions. PMID:24812256

  17. Prediction

    Woollard, W.J.

    2006-01-01

    In this chapter we will look at the ways in which you can use ICT in the classroom to support hypothesis and prediction and how modern technology is enabling: pattern seeking, extrapolation and interpolation to meet the challenges of the information explosion of the 21st century.

  18. The effect of gender on eye colour variation in European populations and an evaluation of the IrisPlex prediction model

    Pietroni, Carlotta; Andersen, Jeppe D; Johansen, Peter; Andersen, Mikkel M; Harder, Stine; Paulsen, Rasmus Reinhold; Børsting, Claus; Morling, Niels

    2014-01-01

    In two recent studies of Spanish individuals [1,2], gender was suggested as a factor that contributes to human eye colour variation. However, gender did not improve the predictive accuracy on blue, intermediate and brown eye colours when gender was included in the IrisPlex model [3]. In this study, we investigate the role of gender as a factor that contributes to eye colour variation and suggest that the gender effect on eye colour is population specific. A total of 230 Italian individuals we...

  19. Baseline brain activity fluctuations predict somatosensory perception in humans

    Boly, M; Balteau, E.; Schnakers, C; Degueldre, C.; Moonen, G.; Luxen, A.; Phillips, C.; Peigneux, P; Maquet, P; Laureys, S.

    2007-01-01

    In perceptual experiments, within-individual fluctuations in perception are observed across multiple presentations of the same stimuli, a phenomenon that remains only partially understood. Here, by means of thulium–yttrium/aluminum–garnet laser and event-related functional MRI, we tested whether variability in perception of identical stimuli relates to differences in prestimulus, baseline brain activity. Results indicate a positive relationship between conscious perception of low-intensity so...

  20. Optimal Coding Predicts Attentional Modulation of Activity in Neural Systems

    Jaramillo, Santiago; Pearlmutter, Barak A.

    2007-01-01

    Neuronal activity in response to a fixed stimulus has been shown to change as a function of attentional state, implying that the neural code also changes with attention. We propose an information-theoretic account of such modulation: that the nervous system adapts to optimally encode sensory stimuli while taking into account the changing relevance of different features. We show using computer simulation that such modulation emerges in a coding system informed about the uneven relevance of ...

  1. Performance on Indirect Measures of Race Evaluation Predicts Amygdala Activation

    Phelps, Elizabeth A.; O'Connor, Kevin J.; Cunningham, William A.; Funayama, E. Sumie; Gatenby, J. Christopher; Gore, John C.; Banaji, Mahzarin R.

    2000-01-01

    We used fMRI to explore the neural substrates involved in the unconscious evaluation of Black and White social groups. Specifically, we focused on the amygdala, a subcortical structure known to play a role in emotional learning and evaluation. In Experiment 1, White American subjects observed faces of unfamiliar Black and White males. The strength of amygdala activation to Black-versus-White faces was correlated with two indirect (unconscious) measures of race evaluation (Implicit Association...

  2. Substrate sources regulate spatial variation of metabolically active methanogens from two contrasting freshwater wetlands.

    Lin, Yongxin; Liu, Deyan; Ding, Weixin; Kang, Hojeong; Freeman, Chris; Yuan, Junji; Xiang, Jian

    2015-12-01

    There is ample evidence that methane (CH4) emissions from natural wetlands exhibit large spatial variations at a field scale. However, little is known about the metabolically active methanogens mediating these differences. We explored the spatial patterns in active methanogens of summer inundated Calamagrostis angustifolia marsh with low CH4 emissions and permanently inundated Carex lasiocarpa marsh with high CH4 emissions in Sanjiang Plain, China. In C. angustifolia marsh, the addition of (13)C-acetate significantly increased the CH4 production rate, and Methanosarcinaceae methanogens were found to participate in the consumption of acetate. In C. lasiocarpa marsh, there was no apparent increase in the CH4 production rate and no methanogen species were labeled with (13)C. When (13)CO2-H2 was added, however, CH4 production was found to be due to Fen Cluster (Methanomicrobiales) in C. angustifolia marsh and Methanobacterium Cluster B (Methanobacteriaceae) together with Fen Cluster in C. lasiocarpa marsh. These results suggested that CH4 was produced primarily by hydrogenotrophic methanogens using substrates mainly derived from plant litter in C. lasiocarpa marsh and by both hydrogenotrophic and acetoclastic methanogens using substrates mainly derived from root exudate in C. angustifolia marsh. The significantly lower CH4 emissions measured in situ in C. angustifolia marsh was primarily due to a deficiency of substrates compared to C. lasiocarpa marsh. Therefore, we speculate that the substrate source regulates both the type of active methanogens and the CH4 production pathway and consequently contributes to the spatial variations in CH4 productions observed in these freshwater marshes. PMID:26286511

  3. Diurnal variations of saltation activity at Tazhong: the hinterland of Taklimakan Desert

    Yang, Xinghua; He, Qing; Mamtimin, Ali; Huo, Wen; Liu, Xinchun

    2013-02-01

    The Taklimakan Desert of China is a region of frequent sandstorms and, thus, is a major sand and dust source area. Tazhong, a small mining village, is located near the center of the Taklimakan Desert at a distance of 220 km from the desert margins. Near Tazhong, we conducted a 2-year field investigation designed to monitor the diurnal variation of saltation activity using fast-responding piezoelectric saltation sensors (Sensits). Results suggest that saltation activity tends to occur more frequently during daytime in all seasons, relatively high levels of saltation activity are maintained from around 11:30 to around 16:30 local standard time (LST), because of stronger wind speed, higher soil temperature and lower relative humidity. During the spring and summer seasons, the saltation activity can occur at any time of the day, while there are some periods with zero saltation seconds at night and in the early morning during autumn and winter seasons. The results confirm that sandstorms tend to occur more frequently during daylight hours, so it may be helpful to forecast and guard against the occurrence of blowing sand or sandstorms in the Taklimakan Desert.

  4. In normal human fibroblasts variation in DSB repair capacity cannot be ascribed to radiation-induced changes in the localisation, expression or activity of major NHEJ proteins

    Kasten-Pisula, Ulla; Vronskaja, Svetlana; Overgaard, Jens; Dikomey, Ekkehard

    2008-01-01

    . MATERIALS AND METHODS: Experiments were performed with 11 normal human fibroblast strains AF01-11. NHEJ proteins were determined by Western blot and DNA-PK activity by pulldown-assay. RESULTS: The four NHEJ proteins tested (Ku70, Ku80, XRCC4 and DNA-PKcs) were found to be localised almost exclusively in the...... the activity of the DNA-PK complex induced upon irradiation. CONCLUSIONS: For normal human fibroblasts, the level or activity of NHEJ proteins measured prior to or after irradiation cannot be used to predict the DSB repair capacity or cellular radiosensitivity. Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Mar......BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The aim of the present study was to test whether for normal human fibroblasts the variation in double-strand break (DSB) repair capacity results from radiation-induced differences in localisation, expression or activity of major non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ) proteins...

  5. NONINVASIVE DETECTION OF BRAIN ACTIVITY VARIATION UNDER DIFFERENT DEPTH OF ANESTHESIA BY EEG COMPLEXITY

    Xu Jin; Li Wenwen; Zheng Chongxun; Jing Guixia; Liu Xueliang

    2006-01-01

    Objective To detect the change of brain activity under different depth of anesthesia (DOA)noninvasively. Methods The Lempel-Ziv complexity C(n) was used to analyze EEG and its four components (delta,theta, alpha, beta), which was recorded from SD rats under different DOA. The relationship between C(n) and DOA was studied. Results The C(n) of EEG will decrease while the depth of anesthesia increasing and vice versa. It can be used to detect the change of DOA sensitively. Compared with power spectrum, the change of C(n) is opposite to that of power spectru,. Only the C(n) of delta rhythm has obvious variations induced by the change of DOA, and the variations of delta is as similar as the EEG's. Conclusion The study shows that the desynchronized EEG is replaced by the synchronized EEG when rat goes into anesthesia state from awake, that is just the reason why complexity and power spectrum appear corresponding changes under different DOA. C(n) of delta rhythm dynamic change leads to the change of EEG, and the delta rhythm is the dominant rhythm during anesthesia for rats.

  6. Seasonal and diurnal variation of lightning activity over southern Africa and correlation with European whistler observations

    A. B. Collier

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS data have been analysed to ascertain the statistical pattern of lightning occurrence over southern Africa. The diurnal and seasonal variations are mapped in detail. The highest flash rates (107.2 km-2 y-1 occur close to the equator but maxima are also found over Madagascar (32.1 km-2 y-1 and South Africa (26.4 km-2 y-1. A feature of the statistics is a relatively steady contribution from over the ocean off the east coast of South Africa that appears to be associated with the Agulhas current.

    Lightning statistics are of intrinsic meteorological interest but they also relate to the occurrence of whistlers in the conjugate region. Whistler observations are made at Tihany, Hungary. Statistics reveal that the period of most frequent whistler occurrence does not correspond to the maximum in lightning activity in the conjugate region but is strongly influenced by ionospheric illumination and other factors. The whistler/flash ratio, R, shows remarkable variations during the year and has a peak that is narrowly confined to February and March.

  7. Predicting activities without computing descriptors: graph machines for QSAR.

    Goulon, A; Picot, T; Duprat, A; Dreyfus, G

    2007-01-01

    We describe graph machines, an alternative approach to traditional machine-learning-based QSAR, which circumvents the problem of designing, computing and selecting molecular descriptors. In that approach, which is similar in spirit to recursive networks, molecules are considered as structured data, represented as graphs. For each example of the data set, a mathematical function (graph machine) is built, whose structure reflects the structure of the molecule under consideration; it is the combination of identical parameterised functions, called "node functions" (e.g. a feedforward neural network). The parameters of the node functions, shared both within and across the graph machines, are adjusted during training with the "shared weights" technique. Model selection is then performed by traditional cross-validation. Therefore, the designer's main task consists in finding the optimal complexity for the node function. The efficiency of this new approach has been demonstrated in many QSAR or QSPR tasks, as well as in modelling the activities of complex chemicals (e.g. the toxicity of a family of phenols or the anti-HIV activities of HEPT derivatives). It generally outperforms traditional techniques without requiring the selection and computation of descriptors. PMID:17365965

  8. Variations in the characteristics of Changjiang sediment discharging into the sea due to human activities

    J. H. Gao

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The variations in sediment load and composition from tributaries of the Changjiang River by human activities were analyzed. The temporal-spatial variations in the sediment load in the main river of the Changjiang under the impact of dam emplacement were determined. We identified the grain size variation of the sediment in the accumulation areas (i.e., the estuarine and adjacent coastal waters during different periods and, on such a basis, discussed about the environmental change signature in the sedimentary record. The results indicate that the timing of reduction in the sediment load of the main stream of the Changjiang was different from downstream to upstream sections, due to the variations in the sediment load of the sub-catchments, and four step-wise reduction periods were observed: 1956–1969, 1970–1985, 1986–2002, and 2003–2010. In addition, the proportion of the sediment load originating from the Jinsha River continuously increased before 2003, due to the sequential reduction in the sediment load of the Han and Jialing Rivers. After 2003, channel erosion of the main river of the Changjiang became a major source of the sediment discharging into the sea. Before 2003, the various sub-catchments as the sources of the sediment entering the sea may be evaluated by analyzing the sediment components in the deposition area, because the sedimentary materials were delivered directly from the upstream portions of the Changjiang; after 2003, although the clay component may be still originated mainly from the upstream areas, the silt and sand components have been derived to a large extent from the erosion of the mid-lower and estuarine reach main channel. Thus, the sediment source of the estuarine-coastal deposits associated with the Changjiang could not be represented by the upstream sources alone. This observation implies that caution should be taken in tracing the sediment sources, interpreting sediment records, and modeling the sediment

  9. Performance on indirect measures of race evaluation predicts amygdala activation.

    Phelps, E A; O'Connor, K J; Cunningham, W A; Funayama, E S; Gatenby, J C; Gore, J C; Banaji, M R

    2000-09-01

    We used fMRI to explore the neural substrates involved in the unconscious evaluation of Black and White social groups. Specifically, we focused on the amygdala, a subcortical structure known to play a role in emotional learning and evaluation. In Experiment 1, White American subjects observed faces of unfamiliar Black and White males. The strength of amygdala activation to Black-versus-White faces was correlated with two indirect (unconscious) measures of race evaluation (Implicit Association Test [IAT] and potentiated startle), but not with the direct (conscious) expression of race attitudes. In Experiment 2, these patterns were not obtained when the stimulus faces belonged to familiar and positively regarded Black and White individuals. Together, these results suggest that amygdala and behavioral responses to Black-versus-White faces in White subjects reflect cultural evaluations of social groups modified by individual experience. PMID:11054916

  10. A note on periodicity of long-term variations of optical continuum in active galactic nuclei

    Lu, Kai-Xing; Bi, Shao-Lan; Wang, Jian-Min

    2016-01-01

    Graham et al. found a sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and quasars from the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) that have long-term periodic variations in optical continuum, the nature of the periodicity remains uncertain. We investigate the periodic variability characteristics of the sample by testing the relations of the observed variability periods with AGN optical luminosity, black hole mass and accretion rates, and find no significant correlations. We also test the observed periods in several different aspects related to accretion disks surrounding single black holes, such as the Keplerian rotational periods of 5100~\\AA\\ photon-emission regions and self-gravity dominated regions and the precessing period of warped disks. These tests shed new lights on understanding AGN variability in general. Under the assumption that the periodic behavior is associated with SMBHB systems in particular, we compare the separations ($\\mathscr{D}_{\\bullet}$) against characteristic radii of broad-line regions (...

  11. Solar activity variations of nocturnal thermospheric meridional winds over Indian longitude sector

    Madhav Haridas, M. K.; Manju, G.; Arunamani, T.

    2016-09-01

    The night time F-layer base height information from ionosondes located at two equatorial stations Trivandrum (TRV 8.5°N, 77°E) and Sriharikota (SHAR 13.7°N, 80.2°E) spanning over two decades are used to derive the climatology of equatorial nocturnal Thermospheric Meridional Winds (TMWs) prevailing during High Solar Activity (HSA) and Low Solar Activity (LSA) epochs. The important inferences from the analysis are 1) Increase in mean equatorward winds observed during LSA compared to HSA during pre midnight hours; 25 m/s for VE (Vernal Equinox) and 20 m/s for SS (Summer Solstice), AE (autumnal Equinox) and WS (Winter Solstice). 2) Mean wind response to Solar Flux Unit (SFU) is established quantitatively for all seasons for pre-midnight hours; rate of increase is 0.25 m/s/SFU for VE, 0.2 m/s/SFU for SS and WS and 0.08 m/s/SFU for AE. 3) Theoretical estimates of winds for the two epochs are performed and indicate the role of ion drag forcing as a major factor influencing TMWs. 4) Observed magnitude of winds and rate of flux dependencies are compared to thermospheric wind models. 5) Equinoctial asymmetry in TMWs is observed for HSA at certain times, with more equatorward winds during AE. These observations lend a potential to parameterize the wind components and effectively model the winds, catering to solar activity variations.

  12. Phenotypic variation in metabolism and morphology correlating with animal swimming activity in the wild: relevance for the OCLTT (oxygen- and capacity-limitation of thermal tolerance), allocation and performance models

    Baktoft, Henrik; Jacobsen, Lene; Skov, Christian; Koed, Anders; Jepsen, Niels; Berg, Søren; Boel, Mikkel; Aarestrup, Kim; Svendsen, Jon C.

    2016-01-01

    Ongoing climate change is affecting animal physiology in many parts of the world. Using metabolism, the oxygen- and capacity-limitation of thermal tolerance (OCLTT) hypothesis provides a tool to predict the responses of ectothermic animals to variation in temperature, oxygen availability and pH in the aquatic environment. The hypothesis remains controversial, however, and has been questioned in several studies. A positive relationship between aerobic metabolic scope and animal activity would be consistent with the OCLTT but has rarely been tested. Moreover, the performance model and the allocation model predict positive and negative relationships, respectively, between standard metabolic rate and activity. Finally, animal activity could be affected by individual morphology because of covariation with cost of transport. Therefore, we hypothesized that individual variation in activity is correlated with variation in metabolism and morphology. To test this prediction, we captured 23 wild European perch (Perca fluviatilis) in a lake, tagged them with telemetry transmitters, measured standard and maximal metabolic rates, aerobic metabolic scope and fineness ratio and returned the fish to the lake to quantify individual in situ activity levels. Metabolic rates were measured using intermittent flow respirometry, whereas the activity assay involved high-resolution telemetry providing positions every 30 s over 12 days. We found no correlation between individual metabolic traits and activity, whereas individual fineness ratio correlated with activity. Independent of body length, and consistent with physics theory, slender fish maintained faster mean and maximal swimming speeds, but this variation did not result in a larger area (in square metres) explored per 24 h. Testing assumptions and predictions of recent conceptual models, our study indicates that individual metabolism is not a strong determinant of animal activity, in contrast to individual morphology, which is

  13. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity to streamflow variation

    J. Chang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impacts of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impacts on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resources management. By using an elasticity-based method, calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrologic models, we have quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activity and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinhe basin located in northwest of China. This is an important watershed of Shaanxi Province that supplies drinking water for a population of over 6 million. The results from the three methods show that both human activity and climatic differences can have major effects on catchment streamflow, and the estimates of climate variability impacts from the hydrological models are similar to those from the elasticity-based method. Compared with the baseline period of 1960–1970, streamflow greatly decreased during 2001–2010. The change impacts of human activity and climate variability in 2001–2010 were about 83.5 and 16.5% of the total reduction respectively when averaged over the three methods. The maximum contribution value of human activity was appeared in 1981–1990 due to the effects of soil and water conservation measures and irrigation water withdrawal, which was 95, 112.5 and 92.4% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. The maximum value of the aridity index (E0/P was 1.91 appeared in 1991–2000. Compared with 1960–1970 baseline period, climate variability made the greatest contributions reduction in 1991–2000, which was 47.4, 43.9 and 29.9% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. We emphasized various source of errors and uncertainties that may occurre in the hydrological model (parameter and structural uncertainty and elasticity-based method (model parameter in climate change impact studies.

  14. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity to streamflow variation

    Chang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, Y.

    2015-06-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impacts of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impacts on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resources management. By using an elasticity-based method, calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrologic models, we have quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activity and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinhe basin located in northwest of China. This is an important watershed of Shaanxi Province that supplies drinking water for a population of over 6 million. The results from the three methods show that both human activity and climatic differences can have major effects on catchment streamflow, and the estimates of climate variability impacts from the hydrological models are similar to those from the elasticity-based method. Compared with the baseline period of 1960-1970, streamflow greatly decreased during 2001-2010. The change impacts of human activity and climate variability in 2001-2010 were about 83.5 and 16.5% of the total reduction respectively when averaged over the three methods. The maximum contribution value of human activity was appeared in 1981-1990 due to the effects of soil and water conservation measures and irrigation water withdrawal, which was 95, 112.5 and 92.4% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. The maximum value of the aridity index (E0/P) was 1.91 appeared in 1991-2000. Compared with 1960-1970 baseline period, climate variability made the greatest contributions reduction in 1991-2000, which was 47.4, 43.9 and 29.9% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. We emphasized various source of errors and uncertainties that may occurre in the hydrological model (parameter and structural uncertainty) and elasticity-based method (model parameter) in climate change impact studies.

  15. Farnesoid X receptor (FXR activation and FXR genetic variation in inflammatory bowel disease.

    Rian M Nijmeijer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We previously showed that activation of the bile salt nuclear receptor Farnesoid X Receptor (FXR protects against intestinal inflammation in mice. Reciprocally, these inflammatory mediators may decrease FXR activation. We investigated whether FXR activation is repressed in the ileum and colon of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD patients in remission. Additionally, we evaluated whether genetic variation in FXR is associated with IBD. METHODS: mRNA expression of FXR and FXR target gene SHP was determined in ileal and colonic biopsies of patients with Crohn's colitis (n = 15 and ulcerative colitis (UC; n = 12, all in clinical remission, and healthy controls (n = 17. Seven common tagging SNPs and two functional SNPs in FXR were genotyped in 2355 Dutch IBD patients (1162 Crohn's disease (CD and 1193 UC and in 853 healthy controls. RESULTS: mRNA expression of SHP in the ileum is reduced in patients with Crohn's colitis but not in patients with UC compared to controls. mRNA expression of villus marker Villin was correlated with FXR and SHP in healthy controls, a correlation that was weaker in UC patients and absent in CD patients. None of the SNPs was associated with IBD, UC or CD, nor with clinical subgroups of CD. CONCLUSIONS: FXR activation in the ileum is decreased in patients with Crohn's colitis. This may be secondary to altered enterohepatic circulation of bile salts or transrepression by inflammatory signals but does not seem to be caused by the studied SNPs in FXR. Increasing FXR activity by synthetic FXR agonists may have benefit in CD patients.

  16. Seasonal variations in notification of active tuberculosis cases in China, 2005-2012.

    Xin-Xu Li

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB incidence has been described in many countries, it remains unknown in China. METHODS: A time series decomposition analysis (X-12-ARIMA was performed to examine the seasonal variation in active TB cases nationwide from 2005 through 2012 in China. Seasonal amplitude was calculated for the evaluation of TB seasonal variation. RESULTS: A total of 7.78 million active TB cases were reported over a period of 8 years. A spring peak (April was observed with seasonal amplitude of 46.3%, compared with the winter trough (February. Most cases in provinces with subtropical and tropical monsoon climate showed lower amplitudes than those in temperate continental, plateau and mountain climate regions. The magnitude of seasonality varied inversely with annual average temperature, r (95% CI = -0.71 (-0.79, -0.61. The seasonal amplitudes were 56.7, 60.5, 40.6, 46.4 and 50.9% for patients aged ≤14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64, and ≥65 years, respectively. Students demonstrated greater seasonal amplitude than peasants, migrant workers and workers (115.3% vs. 43.5, 41.6 and 48.1%. Patients with pulmonary TB had lower amplitude compared to patients with pleural and other extra-pulmonary TB (EPTB (45.9% vs. 52.0 and 56.3%. Relapse cases with sputum smear positive TB (SS+ TB had significantly higher seasonal amplitude compared to new cases with sputum smear positive TB (52.2% vs. 41.6%. CONCLUSIONS: TB is a seasonal disease in China. The peak and trough of TB transmission actually are in winter and in autumn respectively after factors of delay are removed. Higher amplitudes of TB seasonality are more likely to happen in temperate continental, plateau and mountain climate regions and regions with lower annual average temperature, and young person, students, patients with EPTB and relapse cases with SS+ TB are more likely to be affected by TB seasonality.

  17. Prediction of variation in d-orbital occupancy in strain induced tetragonal phase of BiFeO3 thin film

    Verma, Manish; Ram, Kanik

    2016-05-01

    A theoretical study of the possible variation of d-orbital occupancy while going from the rhombohedral bulk phase to the strain induced tetragonal phase of BiFeO3 thin film has been carried out. A possible existence of an intermediate spin (IS) state, S=3/2 and a low spin (LS) state, S=1/2 in the tetragonal phase has been predicted, thereby clearly establishing the role of strain behind the d-orbital occupancy.

  18. Prediction of variation in d-orbital occupancy in strain induced tetragonal phase of BiFeO3 thin film

    Manish Verma

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical study of the possible variation of d-orbital occupancy while going from the rhombohedral bulk phase to the strain induced tetragonal phase of BiFeO3 thin film has been carried out. A possible existence of an intermediate spin (IS state, S=3/2 and a low spin (LS state, S=1/2 in the tetragonal phase has been predicted, thereby clearly establishing the role of strain behind the d-orbital occupancy.

  19. Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach

    Elementi, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COn...

  20. Surface tensions of multi-component mixed inorganic/organic aqueous systems of atmospheric significance: measurements, model predictions and importance for cloud activation predictions

    D. O. Topping

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict the physical properties of aerosol particles, it is necessary to adequately capture the behaviour of the ubiquitous complex organic components. One of the key properties which may affect this behaviour is the contribution of the organic components to the surface tension of aqueous particles in the moist atmosphere. Whilst the qualitative effect of organic compounds on solution surface tensions has been widely reported, our quantitative understanding on mixed organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems is limited. Furthermore, it is unclear whether models that exist in the literature can reproduce the surface tension variability for binary and higher order multi-component organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems of atmospheric significance. The current study aims to resolve both issues to some extent. Surface tensions of single and multiple solute aqueous solutions were measured and compared with predictions from a number of model treatments. On comparison with binary organic systems, two predictive models found in the literature provided a range of values resulting from sensitivity to calculations of pure component surface tensions. Results indicate that a fitted model can capture the variability of the measured data very well, producing the lowest average percentage deviation for all compounds studied. The performance of the other models varies with compound and choice of model parameters. The behaviour of ternary mixed inorganic/organic systems was unreliably captured by using a predictive scheme and this was dependent on the composition of the solutes present. For more atmospherically representative higher order systems, entirely predictive schemes performed poorly. It was found that use of the binary data in a relatively simple mixing rule, or modification of an existing thermodynamic model with parameters derived from binary data, was able to accurately capture the surface tension variation with concentration. Thus

  1. Structure-based activity prediction for an enzyme of unknown function

    Hermann, Johannes C.; Marti-Arbona, Ricardo; Fedorov, Alexander A.; Fedorov, Elena; Almo, Steven C.; Shoichet, Brian K.; Raushel, Frank M.

    2007-01-01

    With many genomes sequenced, a pressing challenge in biology is predicting the function of the proteins that the genes encode. When proteins are unrelated to others of known activity, bioinformatics inference for function becomes problematic. It would thus be useful to interrogate protein structures for function directly. Here, we predict the function of an enzyme of unknown activity, Tm0936 from Thermotoga maritima, by docking high-energy intermediate forms of thousands of candidate metaboli...

  2. Electrical PR Interval Variation Predicts New Occurrence of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Frequent Premature Atrial Contractions.

    Chun, Kwang Jin; Hwang, Jin Kyung; Park, Seung-Jung; On, Young Keun; Kim, June Soo; Park, Kyoung-Min

    2016-04-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with the autonomic nervous system (ANS), and fluctuation of autonomic tone is more prominent in patients with AF. As autonomic tone affects the heart rate (HR), and there is an inverse relationship between HR and PR interval, PR interval variation could be greater in patients with AF than in those without AF. The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between PR interval variation and new-onset AF in patients with frequent PACs.We retrospectively enrolled 207 patients with frequent PACs who underwent electrocardiographs at least 4 times during the follow-up period. The PR variation was calculated by subtracting the minimum PR interval from the maximum PR interval. The outcomes were new occurrence of AF and all-cause mortality during the follow-up period.During a median follow-up of 8.3 years, 24 patients (11.6%) developed new-onset AF. Univariate analysis showed that prolonged PR interval (PR interval > 200 ms, P = 0.021), long PR variation (PR variation > 36.5 ms, P = 0.018), and PR variation (P = 0.004) as a continuous variable were associated with an increased risk of AF. Cox regression analysis showed that prolonged PR interval (hazard ratio = 3.321, 95% CI 1.064-10.362, P = 0.039) and PR variation (hazard ratio = 1.013, 95% CI 1.002-1.024, P = 0.022) were independent predictors for new-onset AF. However, PR variation and prolonged PR interval were not associated with all-cause mortality (P = 0.465 and 0.774, respectively).PR interval variation and prolonged PR interval are independent risk factors for new-onset AF in patients with frequent PACs. However we were unable to determine a cut-off value of PR interval variation for new-onset AF. PMID:27057868

  3. Multiple dynamo modes as a mechanism for long-term solar activity variations

    Käpylä, M. J.; Käpylä, P. J.; Olspert, N.; Brandenburg, A.; Warnecke, J.; Karak, B. B.; Pelt, J.

    2016-05-01

    the overall irregular behavior as being due to the interplay of the different dynamo modes showing different equatorial symmetries, especially the smoother part of the irregular variations being related to the variations of the mode strengths, evolving with different and variable cycle lengths. The abrupt low-activity epoch in the dominant dynamo mode near the surface is related to a strong maximum of the bottom toroidal field strength, which causes abrupt disturbances especially in the differential rotation profile via the suppression of the Reynolds stresses.

  4. TEC variations over the Mediterranean during the seismic activity period of Kythera earthquake of 12th January, 2006

    Contadakis, M. E.; Arabelos, D. N.; Asteriadis, G.; Spatalas, S. D.; Pikridas, Ch.

    2007-07-01

    TEC variations over a particular site sustain variations of different causality, global (earth revolution, earth rotation, earth-tides, variations of the geomagnetic field etc.) or local (atmospheric or underground explosions, earthquakes, volcanoes etc. A lot of work has been done by a great number of researchers on the characteristics of ionospheric variations according to their causality (wave - length, attenuation and velocity and way of propagation). In order that TEC variations over a particular site be used as earthquake precursory diagnostic a concrete sense of the interrelation of TEC variations over different sites as well as their respond of the geomagnetic field variations would be of great interest. In this paper the TEC data of eight GPS stations of the EUREF network (AUT1, Thessaloniki and TUC2, Crete in Greece, MAT, Matera and LAMP, Lampedusa in Italy, GAIA in Portugal, RABT in Rabat, EVPA, Evpatoria in Ukrain and TRAB, Trabson in Turkey) were analyzed using wavelet analysis in order to detect any frequency dependence of the correlation of TEC over different stations. In the same time frequency dependence of Dst and TEC variations are searched in order to detect any correlation. The main conclusion of this analysis is that the constituents of TEC variation with periods <3h are more suitable in searching for earthquake precursors. On the base of this conclusion the analyzed TEC series are searched for possible precursory phenomena. Variation in TEC constituents with periods <3h over the stations AUT1 and TUC2 occurred ±10days of the seismic activity may be attributed to this tectonic activity.

  5. TEC variations over the Mediterranean during the seismic activity of 20th October, in the area of eastern Aegean

    Contadakis, M. E.; Arabelos, D. N.; Asteriadis, G.; Spatalas, S. D.; Pikridas, Ch.

    2007-04-01

    It is well known that TEC variations over a particular site sustain variations of different causality, global (earth revolution, earth rotation, earth-tides, variations of the geomagnetic field etc.) or local (atmospheric or underground explosions, earthquakes, volcanoes etc. A lot of work has been done by a great number of researchers on the characteristics of ionospheric variations according to their causality (wave- length, attenuation and velocity and way of propagation). In order that TEC variations over a particular site be used as earthquake precursory diagnostic a concrete sense of the interrelation of TEC variations over different sites as well as their respond of the geomagnetic field variations would be of great interest. In this paper the TEC data of eight GPS stations of the EUREF network (AUT1, Thessaloniki, TUC2, Crete in Greece, MAT.Matera and LAMP, Lampedusa in Italy, GAIA, in Portugal, RABT, Rabat, EVPA, Evpatoria in Ukrain and TRAB, Trabson in Turkey) were analyzed using wavelet analysis in order to detect any frequency dependence of the correlation of TEC over different stations. In the same time frequency dependence of Dst and TEC variations are searched in order to detect any correlation. The main conclusion of this analysis is that the constituents of TEC variation with periods <3h are more suitable in searching for earthquake precursors. On the base of this conclusion the analyzed TEC series are searched for possible precursory phenomena. Variation in TEC constituents with periods <3h over the stations AUT1 and TUC2 occurred ±10days of the seismic activity may be attributed to this tectonic activity.

  6. Assessing the contribution of climate variability and human activity to runoff variation in Jinghe basin

    Wang, Yimin; wei, Jie

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological processes in river systems have been changing under the impacts of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impacts on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resources management. By using an elasticity-based method, a calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC model, we have quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate change made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinhe basin located in northwest of China. This is an important watershed of Shaanxi Province that supplies drinking water for population over 6 million. The results from the three methods show that both human activities and climatic differences can have major effects on catchment streamflow, and the estimates of climate change impacts from the hydrological models are similar to those from the elasticity-based method. Compared with the baseline period of 1960-1970, streamflow greatly decreased during 2001-2010. The change impacts of ∆QH and ∆QC in 2001-2010 were about 83.5% and 16.5% of the total reduction, and the contribution ratios of ∆QH and ∆QC during 1971-2010 are 78.3% and 21.7% respectively when averaged over the three methods. The maximum contribution value of human activities was appeared in 1981-1990 due to the effects of soil and water conservation measures and irrigation water withdrawal, which was 95%, 112.5% and 92.4% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. The maximum value of the moisture index (E0/ P) was 1.91 appeared in 1991-2000. Compared with 1960-1970 baseline period, climate change made the greatest contributions reduction in 1991-2000, which was 47.4%, 43.9% and 29.9% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. We analyzed the source of errors and uncertainties which may occur in the different approaches.

  7. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    Chang, Jianxia; Zhang, Hongxue; Wang, Yimin; Zhu, Yuelu

    2016-04-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in the Jinghe basin, located in the northwest of China. This is an important watershed of the Shaanxi province that supplies drinking water for a population of over 6 million people. The results showed that the maximum value of the moisture index (E0/P) was 1.91 and appeared in 1991-2000, and the decreased speed of streamflow was higher since 1990 compared with 1960-1990. The average annual streamflow from 1990 to 2010 was reduced by 26.96 % compared with the multiyear average value (from 1960 to 2010). The estimates of the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow decreases from the hydrological models were similar to those from the elasticity-based method. The maximum contribution value of human activities was 99 % when averaged over the three methods, and appeared in 1981-1990 due to the effects of soil and water conservation measures and irrigation water withdrawal. Climate variability made the greatest contribution to streamflow reduction in 1991-2000, the values of which was 40.4 %. We emphasized various source of errors and uncertainties that may occur in the hydrological model (parameter and structural uncertainty) and elasticity-based method (model parameter) in climate change impact studies.

  8. Differences in Muscle Activity During Cable Resistance Training Are Influenced by Variations in Handle Types.

    Rendos, Nicole K; Heredia Vargas, Héctor M; Alipio, Taislaine C; Regis, Rebeca C; Romero, Matthew A; Signorile, Joseph F

    2016-07-01

    Rendos, NK, Heredia Vargas, HM, Alipio, TC, Regis, RC, Romero, MA, and Signorile, JF. Differences in muscle activity during cable resistance training are influenced by variations in handle types. J Strength Cond Res 30(7): 2001-2009, 2016-There has been a recent resurgence in the use of cable machines for resistance training allowing movements that more effectively simulate daily activities and sports-specific movements. By necessity, these devices require a machine/human interface through some type of handle. Considerable data from material handling, industrial engineering, and exercise training studies indicate that handle qualities, especially size and shape, can significantly influence force production and muscular activity, particularly of the forearm muscles, which affect the critical link in activities that require object manipulation. The purpose for this study was to examine the influence of three different handle conditions: standard handle (StandH), ball handle with the cable between the index and middle fingers (BallIM), and ball handle with the cable between the middle and ring fingers (BallMR), on activity levels (rmsEMG) of the triceps brachii lateral and long heads (TriHLat, TriHLong), brachioradialis (BR), flexor carpi radialis (FCR), extensor carpi ulnaris, and extensor digitorum (ED) during eight repetitions of standing triceps pushdown performed from 90° to 0° elbow flexion at 1.5 s per contractile stage. Handle order was randomized. No significant differences were seen for triceps or BR rmsEMG across handle conditions; however, relative patterns of activation did vary for the forearm muscles by handle condition, with more coordinated activation levels for the FCR and ED during the ball handle conditions. In addition, the rmsEMG for the ED was significantly higher during the BallIM than any other condition and during the BallMR than the StandH. These results indicate that the use of ball handles with the cable passing between different fingers

  9. Cognitive ability correlates positively with son birth and predicts cross-cultural variation of the offspring sex ratio.

    Dama, Madhukar Shivajirao

    2013-06-01

    Human populations show remarkable variation in the sex ratio at birth which is believed to be related to the parental condition. In the present study, the global variation of sex ratio at birth (SRB, proportion of male offspring born) was analyzed with respect to indirect measure of condition, the intelligence quotient (IQ). IQ correlates strongly with lifespan across nations, which makes it a good indicator of health of the large populations. Relation between three standard measures of average national IQ and SRB was studied using multiple linear regression models. Average national IQ was positively correlated with SRB (r = 0.54 to 0.57, p wealth, son preference, latitude, low birth weight, and neonatal mortality in the regression models. These results suggest that the striking variation of offspring sex ratio across nations could be caused in part by the difference in general condition of populations. PMID:23657672

  10. Cognitive ability correlates positively with son birth and predicts cross-cultural variation of the offspring sex ratio

    Dama, Madhukar Shivajirao

    2013-06-01

    Human populations show remarkable variation in the sex ratio at birth which is believed to be related to the parental condition. In the present study, the global variation of sex ratio at birth (SRB, proportion of male offspring born) was analyzed with respect to indirect measure of condition, the intelligence quotient (IQ). IQ correlates strongly with lifespan across nations, which makes it a good indicator of health of the large populations. Relation between three standard measures of average national IQ and SRB was studied using multiple linear regression models. Average national IQ was positively correlated with SRB ( r = 0.54 to 0.57, p effects of all the known covariates like fertility, maternal age, polygyny prevalence, wealth, son preference, latitude, low birth weight, and neonatal mortality in the regression models. These results suggest that the striking variation of offspring sex ratio across nations could be caused in part by the difference in general condition of populations.

  11. Prediction

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  12. Anti-glycated activity prediction of polysaccharides from two guava fruits using artificial neural networks.

    Yan, Chunyan; Lee, Jinsheng; Kong, Fansheng; Zhang, Dezhi

    2013-10-15

    High-efficiency ultrasonic treatment was used to extract the polysaccharides of Psidium guajava (PPG) and Psidium littorale (PPL). The aims of this study were to compare polysaccharide activities from these two guavas, as well as to investigate the relationship between ultrasonic conditions and anti-glycated activity. A mathematical model of anti-glycated activity was constructed with the artificial neural network (ANN) toolbox of MATLAB software. Response surface plots showed the correlation between ultrasonic conditions and bioactivity. The optimal ultrasonic conditions of PPL for the highest anti-glycated activity were predicted to be 256 W, 60 °C, and 12 min, and the predicted activity was 42.2%. The predicted highest anti-glycated activity of PPG was 27.2% under its optimal predicted ultrasonic condition. The experimental result showed that PPG and PPL possessed anti-glycated and antioxidant activities, and those of PPL were greater. The experimental data also indicated that ANN had good prediction and optimization capability. PMID:23987324

  13. Time Variation of Seismic Anisotropy, Stress and Cracks on Active Volcanoes (Invited)

    Savage, M. K.

    2013-12-01

    We summarize measurements of seismic anisotropy and its relation to other geophysical measurements of stress and cracks on eleven active volcanoes; Unzen (Unz), Sakurajima (Sak), Aso, Asama (Asm) and Kirishima (Kir) in Japan; Okmok (Okm) in Alaska, Ruapehu (Rua) and Tongariro (Ton) in New Zealand, Soufriere Hills (Sou) in Montserrat, Kilauea (Kil) in Hawaii and Piton de la Fournaise (PdF) in La Reunion. We used the MFAST shear wave splitting computer code, an objective code that is fully automatic except for the S arrival pick. Fast polarization directions (phi) should be parallel to cracks and hence the maximum horizontal stress direction. Time delays (dt) increase with path length and percent anisotropy, usually related to crack density. Where possible we used S waves from deep earthquakes to ensure that the movement of the earthquakes was not correlated with the volcanic activity. At some volcanoes we used families of repeating events with similar waveforms and at most volcanoes we also computed splitting at earthquakes local to the volcano. We compared the phi and dt variation in time to eruption occurrences and to other available parameters including seismicity rate, b-values, focal mechanisms, isotropic velocity changes from noise cross-correlation, Vp/Vs ratios, Geodetic measurements such as GPS and tilt, and gas flux. All volcanoes had some stations with excellent shear wave arrivals that yielded measureable splitting. Individual measurements showed scatter in most areas, but at most of the volcanoes, moving averages of phi or dt (or both) yielded time variations that correlated with other measurements related to volcanic activity or to stress changes or changes in crack-filling material such as gas flux. The multiplet studies did not yield slowly varying splitting but instead showed distinct jumps in splitting parameters at various times, which appears to be caused in part by cycle skipping. Time resolution of changes depends on the seismicity available

  14. Variation of North-South Asymmetry of Solar Flare Index and Associated Solar Activity

    A. B. BHATTACHARYA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The unequal distributions of various aspects of solar activity between the north and south hemisphere of the Sun have been reported in the paper. When we consider north and south asymmetries of both sunspot area and solar flare indices over the cycles 20 to 23 it is noted that (i there are large variations both in northern and southern sunspot areas, (ii both hemispheres have an asymmetric behavior in terms of a solar activity measure, (iiisunspot areas in northern and southern hemispheres exhibit 11 year periodicity when they were analyzed separately, (iv asymmetry at the end of prolonged cycle 23 is unusually high, (v the northern hemisphere is dominant up to 2001 but thereafter the southern hemisphere takes over from 2002 to the end of solar cycle 23 and then the northern hemisphere dominates in the beginning of cycle 24, (vi yearly plot of flare index reveals that the northern and southern hemisphere is not in phase wherein the northern hemisphere leads in phase by 2 years with two adjacent peaks.

  15. Impact of meso-net observations on short-term prediction of intense weather systems during PRWONAM: Part I—On wind variations

    Rao, Kusuma G.; Ramakrishna, G.; Narendra Reddy, N.

    2011-06-01

    Short-term prediction of wind variations as a function of height using the PSU/NCAR MM5 model with an optimum horizontal resolution of 3 km, and assimilation of meso-network measurements of PRWONAM, has been carried out for the southern peninsular region of India. The studies were made within the framework of the PRWONAM programme. The observed wind data used here are from the MST radar at Gadanki and GP Sondes at a few locations (SHAR, Bangalore, Gadanki, Chennai, Arakkonam, Cochin) in the peninsular region. During the southwest monsoon season, the wind fields showed coherent pattern in the vertical unlike during the spring season. Comparisons in wind variations between predictions and observations for Gadanki revealed an average bias of 3.84 m s-1 in the predicted mean wind above 8 km during the spring season, with 75% (63%) of instantaneous predictions falling in ±5 m s-1 error bounds with (without) bias correction. The percentage within these limits below 8 km altitude is 90%.

  16. A unified framework for activity recognition-based behavior analysis and action prediction in smart homes.

    Fatima, Iram; Fahim, Muhammad; Lee, Young-Koo; Lee, Sungyoung

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, activity recognition in smart homes is an active research area due to its applicability in many applications, such as assistive living and healthcare. Besides activity recognition, the information collected from smart homes has great potential for other application domains like lifestyle analysis, security and surveillance, and interaction monitoring. Therefore, discovery of users common behaviors and prediction of future actions from past behaviors become an important step towards allowing an environment to provide personalized service. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for activity recognition-based behavior analysis and action prediction. For this purpose, first we propose kernel fusion method for accurate activity recognition and then identify the significant sequential behaviors of inhabitants from recognized activities of their daily routines. Moreover, behaviors patterns are further utilized to predict the future actions from past activities. To evaluate the proposed framework, we performed experiments on two real datasets. The results show a remarkable improvement of 13.82% in the accuracy on average of recognized activities along with the extraction of significant behavioral patterns and precise activity predictions with 6.76% increase in F-measure. All this collectively help in understanding the users" actions to gain knowledge about their habits and preferences. PMID:23435057

  17. A Unified Framework for Activity Recognition-Based Behavior Analysis and Action Prediction in Smart Homes

    Sungyoung Lee

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, activity recognition in smart homes is an active research area due to its applicability in many applications, such as assistive living and healthcare. Besides activity recognition, the information collected from smart homes has great potential for other application domains like lifestyle analysis, security and surveillance, and interaction monitoring. Therefore, discovery of users common behaviors and prediction of future actions from past behaviors become an important step towards allowing an environment to provide personalized service. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for activity recognition-based behavior analysis and action prediction. For this purpose, first we propose kernel fusion method for accurate activity recognition and then identify the significant sequential behaviors of inhabitants from recognized activities of their daily routines. Moreover, behaviors patterns are further utilized to predict the future actions from past activities. To evaluate the proposed framework, we performed experiments on two real datasets. The results show a remarkable improvement of 13.82% in the accuracy on average of recognized activities along with the extraction of significant behavioral patterns and precise activity predictions with 6.76% increase in F-measure. All this collectively help in understanding the users” actions to gain knowledge about their habits and preferences.

  18. The use of early summer mosquito surveillance to predict late summer West Nile virus activity

    Ginsberg, Howard S.; Rochlin, Ilia; Campbell, Scott R.

    2010-01-01

    Utility of early-season mosquito surveillance to predict West Nile virus activity in late summer was assessed in Suffolk County, NY. Dry ice-baited CDC miniature light traps paired with gravid traps were set weekly. Maximum-likelihood estimates of WNV positivity, minimum infection rates, and % positive pools were generally well correlated. However, positivity in gravid traps was not correlated with positivity in CDC light traps. The best early-season predictors of WNV activity in late summer (estimated using maximum-likelihood estimates of Culex positivity in August and September) were early date of first positive pool, low numbers of mosquitoes in July, and low numbers of mosquito species in July. These results suggest that early-season entomological samples can be used to predict WNV activity later in the summer, when most human cases are acquired. Additional research is needed to establish which surveillance variables are most predictive and to characterize the reliability of the predictions.

  19. TEC variations during low solar activity period (2005-2007) near the Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly Crest region in India

    Bagiya, Mala S.; Joshi, H. P.; Iyer, K. N.; Aggarwal, M.; Ravindran, S.; Pathan, B. M.

    2009-03-01

    The dual frequency signals from the GPS satellites recorded at Rajkot (22.29° N, 70.74° E, Geographic, 14.03° N Geomagnetic) near the Equatorial ionization anomaly crest in India have been analyzed to study the ionospheric variations in terms of Total Electron Content (TEC) for the low solar activity period from April 2005 to December 2007. In this study, we describe the diurnal and seasonal variations of TEC, solar activity dependence of TEC and effects of a space weather related event, a geomagnetic storm on TEC. The diurnal variation of TEC shows pre-dawn minimum for a short period of time, followed by a steep early morning increase and then reaches maximum value between 14:00 LT and 16:00 LT. The mean diurnal variations during different seasons are brought out. It is found that TEC at Rajkot is at its maximum during Equinoctial months (March, April, September, October), and minimum during the Winter months (November, December, January, February), with intermediate values during Summer months (May, June, July, August), showing a semi annual variation. TEC values have been decreasing since 2005, onwards showing positive correlation with solar activity. TEC variations during the geomagnetic storm commencing 24 August 2005 with Dst=-216 nT are analysed. TEC shows a positive ionospheric storm effect on the first day of the storm and negative ionospheric storm effect on the next day. The equatorial Electrojet control on the development of the equatorial anomaly is also demonstrated.

  20. Active fault creep variations at Chihshang, Taiwan, revealed by creep meter monitoring, 1998-2001

    Lee, Jian-Cheng; Angelier, Jacques; Chu, Hao-Tsu; Hu, Jyr-Ching; Jeng, Fu-Shu; Rau, Ruey-Juin

    2003-11-01

    The daily creep meter data recorded at Chihshang in 1998-2001 are presented. The Chihshang creep meter experiment was set up across the Chihshang thrust fault, the most active segment of the Longitudinal Valley Fault, which is the present-day plate suture between the Eurasian and the Philippine Sea plates in eastern Taiwan. Near-continuous data recording at two sites revealed different surface fault motions yet similar annual shortening rates: 16.2 mm at the Tapo site (comprising two connected creep meters) and 15.0 mm at the Chinyuan site (three creep meters straddling parallel fault branches). Four of the five creep meters showed a seasonal variation, with the fault moving steadily during the rainy season from April to October, and remaining quiescent during the rest of the year. The only exception was recorded by the creep meter located on a mélange-composed hillslope, where local gravitational landsliding played an additional role other than tectonic faulting. Through comparison with daily precipitation data, we inferred that moderate rainfall suffices to trigger or facilitate slippage on the surface fault, during the transition period of the dry/wet season. During the observation period from 1998 to 2001, the subsurface seismicity exhibited clusters of microearthquakes on the Chihshang Fault at depths of 10-25 km. Recurrent earthquakes occurred regardless of whether the season was wet or dry, indicating that the stress relaxation associated with seismicity in the seismogenic zone did not transfer immediately up to the surface. The accumulated strain on the Chihshang Fault at shallow surface levels was released through creep during the wet season. In addition to these short-term seasonal variations, an apparent decrease in the annual slipping rate on the Chihshang Fault during the last few years deserves further investigation in order to mitigate against seismic hazard.

  1. The assessment of anticoagulant activity to predict bleeding outcome in atrial fibrillation patients receiving dabigatran etexilate.

    Chang, Yao-Ting; Hu, Yu-Feng; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chern, Chang-Ming; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Wu, Cheng-Hsueh; Sung, Shih-Hsien; Wang, Kang-Ling; Lu, Tse-Min; Chao, Tze-Fan; Lo, Li-Wei; Hsu, Li-Chi; Chung, Chih-Ping; Chang, Peter M-H; Hsu, Wei-Hsuan; Chiou, Chuen-Wang; Chen, Shih-Ann

    2016-06-01

    Special circumstances may require the measurement of the anticoagulant effect of dabigatran etexilate. No data currently link any given coagulation test to bleeding outcomes in patients receiving dabigatran etexilate for atrial fibrillation. Nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients receiving dabigatran etexilate of 110 mg (DE110) or 150 mg (DE150) were consecutively enrolled. The hemoclot thrombin inhibitor (HTI) assay, prothrombin time, and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) measurements were correlated with bleeding events during a prospective follow-up. There were 17 bleeding events (8.2%) in 208 patients (74.7 ± 10.3 years old, 67.9% male, median follow-up: 364 days), whereas 15 patients with bleeding events used DE110. Compared with DE110, the patients receiving DE150 were younger and more often male and had lower HAS-BLED and CHA2DS2VASc scores and better renal function. Patients' HTI levels were very variable (DE110, 10-90th percentile: 20.5-223.9 ng/ml). A receiver-operator characteristic curve gave a median cutoff HTI level of 117.7 ng/ml to predict bleeding events (C-statistics: 0.65; P = 0.036), but no cutoff could be determined for prothrombin time or APTT. Based on the Kaplan-Meier analysis, a dabigatran etexilate level greater than 117.7 ng/ml was associated with a higher bleeding rate (15.4% vs. 4.9%, P = 0.01). After multivariate Cox regression analysis, HTI levels, history of stroke, and male sex were independent risk factors for bleeding events. Dabigatran etexilate-HTI levels were independently associated with bleeding in patients receiving routine clinical care. Blood sampling at multiple time points might be needed to increase reliability because of high variation of dabigatran etexilate-HTI levels. PMID:26991859

  2. HPA axis genetic variation, pubertal status, and sex interact to predict amygdala and hippocampus responses to negative emotional faces in school-age children.

    Pagliaccio, David; Luby, Joan L; Bogdan, Ryan; Agrawal, Arpana; Gaffrey, Michael S; Belden, Andrew C; Botteron, Kelly N; Harms, Michael P; Barch, Deanna M

    2015-04-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests a role for stress exposure, particularly during early life, and for variation in genes involved in stress response pathways in neural responsivity to emotional stimuli. Understanding how individual differences in these factors predict differences in emotional responsivity may be important for understanding both normative emotional development and for understanding the mechanisms underlying internalizing disorders, like anxiety and depression, that have often been related to increased amygdala and hippocampus responses to negatively valenced emotional stimuli. The present study examined whether stress exposure and genetic profile scores (10 single nucleotide polymorphisms within four hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis genes: CRHR1, NR3C2, NR3C1, and FKBP5) predict individual differences in amygdala and hippocampus responses to fearful vs. neutral faces in school-age children (7-12 year olds; N = 107). Experience of more stressful and traumatic life events predicted greater left amygdala responses to negative emotional stimuli. Genetic profile scores interacted with sex and pubertal status to predict amygdala and hippocampus responses. Specifically, genetic profile scores were a stronger predictor of amygdala and hippocampus responses among pubertal vs. prepubertal children where they positively predicted responses to fearful faces among pubertal girls and positively predicted responses to neutral faces among pubertal boys. The current results suggest that genetic and environmental stress-related factors may be important in normative individual differences in responsivity to negative emotional stimuli, a potential mechanism underlying internalizing disorders. Further, sex and pubertal development may be key moderators of the effects of stress-system genetic variation on amygdala and hippocampus responsivity, potentially relating to sex differences in stress-related psychopathology. PMID:25583614

  3. Variation of Floods Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate and Human Activities in Poyang Lake, China

    LI Xianghu; ZHANG Qi

    2015-01-01

    The Poyang Lake is one of the most frequently flooded areas in China.Understanding the changing characteristics of floods as well as the affecting factors is an important prerequisite of flood disaster prevention and mitigation.The present study identified the characteristics variations of historical floods in the Poyang Lake and their tendencies based on the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test,and also investigated the related affecting factors,both from climate and human activities.The results revealed that the highest flood stages,duration as well as hazard coefficient of floods showed a long-term increasing linear trend during the last 60 years with the M-K statistic of 1.49,1.60 and 1.50,respectively.And,a slightly increasing linear trend in the timing of the highest stages indicated the floods occurred later and later during the last six decades.The rainfall during the flood season and subsequent discharges of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and runoff from the Poyang Lake Basin were mainly responsible for the severe flood situation in the Poyang Lake in the 1990s.In addition,the intensive human activities,including land reclamation and levee construction,also played a supplementary role in increasing severity of major floods.While,the fewer floods in the Poyang Lake after 2000 can be attributed to not only the less rainfall over the Poyang Lake Basin and low discharges of the Changjiang River during flood periods,but also the stronger influences of human activity which increased the floodwater storage of the Poyang Lake than before.

  4. Variations in ectoenzymatic hydrolytic activity in an oligotrophic environment (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea, W Mediterranean)

    Misic, Cristina; Castellano, Michela; Ruggieri, Nicoletta; Harriague, Anabella Covazzi

    2008-09-01

    The variations in the expression of two hydrolytic ectoenzymes (leucine aminopeptidase - LA - and β glucosidase — BG) were studied in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea during spring 2004. This area is characterised by a complex morphology and hydrodynamism, which generate significant differences between different sectors, particularly in the 0-100 m layer. However, the area generally exhibits oligotrophic features such as low autotrophic pigment and organic matter concentrations and a higher bacterial biomass than the phytoplanktonic one. Despite this general bottom-up pressure, adaptations by the microbial consumers were indicated by the ectoenzymatic activities and by the relationships between the enzymes, their organic substrates and their producers (namely the bacteria). In particular, bacteria were able to exploit the inorganic N supply (nitrite + nitrate provided by irregular intrusions of intermediate waters) to escape the bottom-up limitation and produce enzymes such as BG devoted to the degradation of cellulose remnants and, therefore, also able to take advantage on this refractory organic matter. In the 200-800 m layer, where trophic limitation was strong due to the low values of potentially-labile organic matter (namely proteins), the peculiar hydrodynamism led to the formation of nepheloid layers rich in organic matter, which provided the bacteria with substrates and allowed the development of a significant correlation between LA activity and its own organic substrate. Furthermore, a reduction of the bottom-up pressure was also indicated by a higher mean bacteria cell size in the entire water column of the central and eastern sectors, and a significantly increased expression of BG related to the increase in the cell size. The ectoenzymatic activities, therefore, suggested that the southern Tyrrhenian Sea should be considered as a mosaic of subsystems, where the peculiar hydrological features stimulate bacterial adaptations and enhance the channelling of

  5. New active drugs against liver stages of Plasmodium predicted by molecular topology.

    Mahmoudi, N.; Garcia-Domenech, R.; Galvez, J.; Farhati, K.; Franetich, J.F.; Sauerwein, R.W.; Hannoun, L.; Derouin, F.; Danis, M.; Mazier, D.

    2008-01-01

    We conducted a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) study based on a database of 127 compounds previously tested against the liver stage of Plasmodium yoelii in order to develop a model capable of predicting the in vitro antimalarial activities of new compounds. Topological indices we

  6. Prediction of in vitro and in vivo oestrogen receptor activity using hierarchical clustering

    In this study, hierarchical clustering classification models were developed to predict in vitro and in vivo oestrogen receptor (ER) activity. Classification models were developed for binding, agonist, and antagonist in vitro ER activity and for mouse in vivo uterotrophic ER bindi...

  7. Can Gymnastic Teacher Predict Leisure Activity Preference among Children with Developmental Coordination Disorders (DCD)?

    Engel-Yeger, Batya; Hanna-Kassis, Amany; Rosenblum, Sara

    2012-01-01

    The aims of the study were to analyze: (1) whether significant differences exist between children with typical development and children with developmental coordination disorders (DCD) in their preference to participate in leisure activities (2) whether the teacher estimation of activity form (TEAF) evaluation predicts participation preference.…

  8. TEC variations during low solar activity period (2005–2007) near the Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly Crest region in India

    Bagiya, Mala S.; H. P. Joshi; Iyer, K. N.; Aggarwal, M; Ravindran, S.; B. M. Pathan

    2009-01-01

    The dual frequency signals from the GPS satellites recorded at Rajkot (22.29° N, 70.74° E, Geographic, 14.03° N Geomagnetic) near the Equatorial ionization anomaly crest in India have been analyzed to study the ionospheric variations in terms of Total Electron Content (TEC) for the low solar activity period from April 2005 to December 2007. In this study, we describe the diurnal and seasonal variations of TEC, solar activity dependence of TEC and effects of a space weather related...

  9. Impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity and sedentary behaviors, but not reflective intentions, prospectively predict non-exercise activity thermogenesis.

    Boris Cheval

    Full Text Available Understanding the determinants of non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT is crucial, given its extensive health benefits. Some scholars have assumed that a proneness to react differently to environmental cues promoting sedentary versus active behaviors could be responsible for inter-individual differences in NEAT. In line with this reflection and grounded on the Reflective-Impulsive Model, we test the assumption that impulsive processes related to sedentary and physical activity behaviors can prospectively predict NEAT, operationalized as spontaneous effort exerted to maintain low intensity muscle contractions within the release phases of an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. Participants (n = 91 completed a questionnaire assessing their intentions to adopt physical activity behaviors and a manikin task to assess impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity behaviors (IAPA and sedentary behaviors (IASB. Participants were then instructed to perform a maximal handgrip strength task and an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. As hypothesized, multilevel regression analyses revealed that spontaneous effort was (a positively predicted by IAPA, (b negatively predicted by IASB, and (c was not predicted by physical activity intentions, after controlling for some confounding variables such as age, sex, usual PA level and average force provided during the maximal-contraction phases of the task. These effects remained constant throughout all the phases of the task. This study demonstrated that impulsive processes may play a unique role in predicting spontaneous physical activity behaviors. Theoretically, this finding reinforces the utility of a motivational approach based on dual-process models to explain inter-individual differences in NEAT. Implications for health behavior theories and behavior change interventions are outlined.

  10. A Unified Framework for Activity Recognition-Based Behavior Analysis and Action Prediction in Smart Homes

    Sungyoung Lee; Iram Fatima; Young-Koo Lee; Muhammad Fahim

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, activity recognition in smart homes is an active research area due to its applicability in many applications, such as assistive living and healthcare. Besides activity recognition, the information collected from smart homes has great potential for other application domains like lifestyle analysis, security and surveillance, and interaction monitoring. Therefore, discovery of users common behaviors and prediction of future actions from past behaviors become an important step t...

  11. Structure-Functional Study of Tyrosine and Methionine Dipeptides: An Approach to Antioxidant Activity Prediction

    Anna Torkova; Olga Koroleva; Ekaterina Khrameeva; Tatyana Fedorova; Mikhail Tsentalovich

    2015-01-01

    Quantum chemical methods allow screening and prediction of peptide antioxidant activity on the basis of known experimental data. It can be used to design the selective proteolysis of protein sources in order to obtain products with antioxidant activity. Molecular geometry and electronic descriptors of redox-active amino acids, as well as tyrosine and methionine-containing dipeptides, were studied by Density Functional Theory method. The calculated data was used to reveal several descriptors r...

  12. A note on periodicity of long-term variations of optical continuum in active galactic nuclei

    Lu, Kai-Xing; Li, Yan-Rong; Bi, Shao-Lan; Wang, Jian-Min

    2016-06-01

    Graham et al. found a sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and quasars from the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) that have long-term periodic variations in optical continuum. The nature of the periodicity remains uncertain. We investigate the periodic variability characteristics of the sample by testing the relations of the observed variability periods with AGN optical luminosity, black hole mass and accretion rates, and find no significant correlations. We also test the observed periods in several different aspects related to accretion discs surrounding single black holes, such as the Keplerian rotational periods of 5100 Å photon-emission regions and self-gravity dominated regions and the precessing period of warped discs. These tests shed new lights on understanding AGN variability in general. Under the assumption that the periodic behaviour is associated with supermassive black hole binary systems in particular, we compare the separations (r {D}_{bullet }) against characteristic radii of broad-line regions (R_riptscriptstyle BLR) of the binaries and find r {D}_{bullet }≈ 0.05R_riptscriptstyle BLR. This interestingly implies that these binaries have only circumbinary BLRs.

  13. A note on periodicity of long-term variations of optical continuum in active galactic nuclei

    Lu, Kai-Xing; Li, Yan-Rong; Bi, Shao-Lan; Wang, Jian-Min

    2016-04-01

    Graham et al. found a sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and quasars from the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) that have long-term periodic variations in optical continuum, the nature of the periodicity remains uncertain. We investigate the periodic variability characteristics of the sample by testing the relations of the observed variability periods with AGN optical luminosity, black hole mass and accretion rates, and find no significant correlations. We also test the observed periods in several different aspects related to accretion disks surrounding single black holes, such as the Keplerian rotational periods of 5100 Å photon-emission regions and self-gravity dominated regions and the precessing period of warped disks. These tests shed new lights on understanding AGN variability in general. Under the assumption that the periodic behavior is associated with SMBHB systems in particular, we compare the separations (D_{bullet }) against characteristic radii of broad-line regions (RBLR) of the binaries and find D_{bullet }≈ 0.05R_{BLR}. This interestingly implies that these binaries have only circumbinary BLRs.

  14. Nitrate reductase activity and its diurnal variation rhythm for Camptotheca acuminata seedlings

    SUNShi-qin; YANXiu-feng

    2004-01-01

    Nitrate reductase activity (NRA) in different plant organs and leaves in different positions of Camptotheca acuminata seedlings was determined by an In vivo assay, the diurnal variation rhythm of NRA in leaves of different positions was observed,and the correlations between leaf NRA, leaf area and lamina mass per unit area (LMA) were also examined. The results showed that NRA in the leaf was significantly highest, compared with that in other organs such as roots, stems and leaves. In this experiment, the 10 leaves were selected from the apex to the base of the seedlings in order. The different NRA occurred obviously in leaves of different positions of C. acuminata seedlings from the apex to the base, and NRA was higher in the 4th-6th leaves.The diurnal change rhythm of leaf NRA showed a one peak curve, and maximum NRA value appeared at about midday (at 12:30 or so). No obvious correlations between NRA and leaf area or lamina mass per unit area were observed. This study offered scientific foundation for the further research on nitrogen metabolism of C. acuminata.

  15. Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

    Mestyán, Márton; Kertész, János

    2012-01-01

    Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies becomes a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. One of the natural application of this would be prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains as a big challenge. Here, we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie could be predicted well in advance by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.

  16. Daily and seasonal variations of radon activity measured in Mystery Cave

    Mystery Cave, southeastern Minnesota, is the site of an ongoing study of how radon and radon progeny are affected by meteorological changes in and about the dave. Data on radon, radon progeny, temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, wind speed and direction, and rainfall are collected at 4-hour intervals at different locations within and just outside the cave. During winter months, average ambient radon levels ranged from 5 to 200 pCi/L. Transient levels above 500 pCi/L tended to correlate with failing barometric pressure, but not with the magnitude of ΔP. In summer, average ambient radon increased to around 300 pCi/L with short-term levels exceeding 500 pCi/L. Fluctuations related to temperature were also noted. Radon progeny generally correlate with radon and both showed rates of change faster than ingrowth or decay. In addition to the time variations in the radon activity levels, pulses were observed between monitoring locations. The probable correlation of radon-activity transport with aboveground meteorological changes and preliminary data on cave airflow is being studied. Previous grab sampling with Lucas cells and integrating alpha-track devices did not show either the 10- to 100-fold daily fluctuations or the pulses. As more continuous data become available, it is increasingly evident that radon fluctuates on time scales that range from hours to years, in response to conditions both inside and outside the cave system. Funding for this project was approved by the Minnesota legislature ML 1991, Chapter 264, Art. 1, Sec. 14, subd. 3 (I) as recommended by the Legislative Commission on Minnesota Resources from the Minnesota Future Resources Fund

  17. A Predictive Model of Daily Seismic Activity Induced by Mining, Developed with Data Mining Methods

    Jakubowski, Jacek

    2014-12-01

    The article presents the development and evaluation of a predictive classification model of daily seismic energy emissions induced by longwall mining in sector XVI of the Piast coal mine in Poland. The model uses data on tremor energy, basic characteristics of the longwall face and mined output in this sector over the period from July 1987 to March 2011. The predicted binary variable is the occurrence of a daily sum of tremor seismic energies in a longwall that is greater than or equal to the threshold value of 105 J. Three data mining analytical methods were applied: logistic regression,neural networks, and stochastic gradient boosted trees. The boosted trees model was chosen as the best for the purposes of the prediction. The validation sample results showed its good predictive capability, taking the complex nature of the phenomenon into account. This may indicate the applied model's suitability for a sequential, short-term prediction of mining induced seismic activity.

  18. Evaluation of Interindividual Human Variation in Bioactivation and DNA Adduct Formation of Estragole in Liver Predicted by Physiologically Based Kinetic/Dynamic and Monte Carlo Modeling.

    Punt, Ans; Paini, Alicia; Spenkelink, Albertus; Scholz, Gabriele; Schilter, Benoit; van Bladeren, Peter J; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

    2016-04-18

    Estragole is a known hepatocarcinogen in rodents at high doses following metabolic conversion to the DNA-reactive metabolite 1'-sulfooxyestragole. The aim of the present study was to model possible levels of DNA adduct formation in (individual) humans upon exposure to estragole. This was done by extending a previously defined PBK model for estragole in humans to include (i) new data on interindividual variation in the kinetics for the major PBK model parameters influencing the formation of 1'-sulfooxyestragole, (ii) an equation describing the relationship between 1'-sulfooxyestragole and DNA adduct formation, (iii) Monte Carlo modeling to simulate interindividual human variation in DNA adduct formation in the population, and (iv) a comparison of the predictions made to human data on DNA adduct formation for the related alkenylbenzene methyleugenol. Adequate model predictions could be made, with the predicted DNA adduct levels at the estimated daily intake of estragole of 0.01 mg/kg bw ranging between 1.6 and 8.8 adducts in 10(8) nucleotides (nts) (50th and 99th percentiles, respectively). This is somewhat lower than values reported in the literature for the related alkenylbenzene methyleugenol in surgical human liver samples. The predicted levels seem to be below DNA adduct levels that are linked with tumor formation by alkenylbenzenes in rodents, which were estimated to amount to 188-500 adducts per 10(8) nts at the BMD10 values of estragole and methyleugenol. Although this does not seem to point to a significant health concern for human dietary exposure, drawing firm conclusions may have to await further validation of the model's predictions. PMID:26952143

  19. Experience-based auditory predictions modulate brain activity to silence as do real sounds

    Chouiter, Leila; Tzovara, Athina; Dieguez, Sebastian; Annoni, Jean-Marie; Magezi, David; De Lucia, Marzia; Spierer, Lucas

    2016-01-01

    Interactions between stimuli's acoustic features and experience-based internal models of the environment enable listeners to compensate for the disruptions in auditory streams that are regularly encountered in noisy environments. However, whether auditory gaps are filled in predictively or restored a posteriori remains unclear. The current lack of positive statistical evidence that internal models can actually shape brain activity as would real sounds precludes accepting predictive accou...

  20. PREDICTION OF BIOLOGICAL ACTIVITY SPECTRA FOR SECONDARY METABOLITES FROM MARINE MACROALGAE CAULERPA SPP (CHLOROPHYTA – CAULERPALS

    R. Azhaguraj

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to evaluate the biological activity of Caulerpin β-Sitosterol, Taraxerol and Palmtic acid isolated from the marine macro algae Caulerpa spp. The PASS computer program was used in this study to predict the biological activity profile of the four Phenazine derivates. The results were analyzed to show various biological activities like pharmacological (Kinase inhibitor, Neuroprotector and Antiviral, Effects (Oxidoreductase inhibitor, Acid Phosphatase inhibitor and toxicological activity (Teratogen of these compounds. The PASS software is useful for the study of biological activity of secondary metabolites.

  1. The effect of gender on eye colour variation in European populations and an evaluation of the IrisPlex prediction model

    Pietroni, Carlotta; Andersen, Jeppe D.; Johansen, Peter;

    2014-01-01

    In two recent studies of Spanish individuals [1,2], gender was suggested as a factor that contributes to human eye colour variation. However, gender did not improve the predictive accuracy on blue, intermediate and brown eye colours when gender was included in the IrisPlex model [3]. In this study......, we investigate the role of gender as a factor that contributes to eye colour variation and suggest that the gender effect on eye colour is population specific. A total of 230 Italian individuals were typed for the six IrisPlex SNPs (rs12913832, rs1800407, rs12896399, rs1393350, rs16891982 and rs...... eye colour independently of ancestry. Furthermore, we found gender to be significantly associated with quantitative eye colour measurements in the Italian population sample. We found that the association was statistically significant only among Italian individuals typed as heterozygote GA for HERC2 rs...

  2. Comparison between measured and predicted resting metabolic rate in moderately active adolescents.

    De Lorenzo A; Bertini, I; Puijia, A; Testolin, G; Testolin, C

    1999-09-01

    The aim of this study was to check the validity of predictive equations for the calculation of resting metabolic rate (RMR) in moderately active adolescents. The RMR was measured in a sample of 25 healthy 15.5-18.2-year-old boys practicing soccer. The RMR was assessed by indirect calorimetry for 30 min following an overnight fast. Body composition was estimated from skinfold thickness measurements. Among the available equations to predict RMR, we decided to use those a of Molnar et al., Harris-Benedict, Schofield, and Cunningham. Measured and predicted values were compared by means of a one-way ANOVA. Also the Bland-Altman test was performed in order to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction equations compared to the measured value. The measured RMR was found to be 1834 +/- 160 kcal/day (mean +/- SD), while the Molnar et al., Schofield, Harris-Benedict, and Cunningham predicted values were 1707 +/- 78, 1866 +/- 89, 1779 +/- 84 and 1830 +/- 87 kcal/day, respectively. On average, compared to the measured values only the Molnar et al. equation differed significantly. On an individual basis, all the equations demonstrated considerable variability between measured and predicted RMRs. The predicted values also differed significantly. As regards the moderately active subjects (16-18 years old), we recommend the use of the Schofield equation, based on simple anthropometric parameters and also that of Cunningham, even if the estimation or measurement of fat-free mass may be cumbersome for everyday pediatric use. PMID:10664318

  3. Along strike variation of tremor activities and thermal structures in various subduction zones

    Yabe, S.; Ide, S.; Yoshioka, S.

    2012-12-01

    A family of slow earthquakes, e.g., deep low frequency tremors, low frequency earthquakes (LFEs), very low frequency earthquakes (VLFs) and slow slip events (SSEs), are observed in various subduction zones. These phenomena represent shear slip on the plate interface, and they are thought to be related to brittle-ductile transition behavior on the plate interface because they are often located near the transition zones of interplate coupling estimated from GPS data. Such slip behavior along the plate interface would be controlled by temperature. Furthermore, tremors are considered to be related to fluid dehydrated from the subducting slab, through temperature dependent chemical reactions. Therefore, tremors occurrences are expected to be influenced by temperature, though some studies have questioned about the relationship between tremor activity and temperature. Here we investigate the source locations of deep tremor using an envelope correlation method and compare them with the temperature and shear strength profiles along the plate interface calculated using a numerical model (Yoshioka and Sanshadokoro, 2002). The study areas include New Zealand, southern Chile, and Mexico, where tremor behavior changes significantly along the strike of the plate interface. Investigating such along-strike variation in individual subduction zone may clarify the temperature dependence of tremor because environmental conditions affecting tremor occurrence are similar, unlike the comparison between different subduction zones. In the Hikurangi subduction zone beneath the North Island, New Zealand, the depth of SSE are quite different along the strike, e.g., deeper in the central region and shallower in the northern region (e.g. Wallace and Beavan, 2010). We reanalyze tremors detected by previous studies (Kim et al., 2011; Ide, 2012) to estimate their absolute depth and confirm that tremors in North Island are on the plate interface in both the central and the northern regions. Thermal

  4. Prediction of cloud condensation nuclei activity for organic compounds using functional group contribution methods

    Petters, M. D.; Kreidenweis, S. M.; Ziemann, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    A wealth of recent laboratory and field experiments demonstrate that organic aerosol composition evolves with time in the atmosphere, leading to changes in the influence of the organic fraction to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectra. There is a need for tools that can realistically represent the evolution of CCN activity to better predict indirect effects of organic aerosol on clouds and climate. This work describes a model to predict the CCN activity of organic compounds from functional group composition. Following previous methods in the literature, we test the ability of semi-empirical group contribution methods in Köhler theory to predict the effective hygroscopicity parameter, kappa. However, in our approach we also account for liquid-liquid phase boundaries to simulate phase-limited activation behavior. Model evaluation against a selected database of published laboratory measurements demonstrates that kappa can be predicted within a factor of 2. Simulation of homologous series is used to identify the relative effectiveness of different functional groups in increasing the CCN activity of weakly functionalized organic compounds. Hydroxyl, carboxyl, aldehyde, hydroperoxide, carbonyl, and ether moieties promote CCN activity while methylene and nitrate moieties inhibit CCN activity. The model can be incorporated into scale-bridging test beds such as the Generator of Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere (GECKO-A) to evaluate the evolution of kappa for a complex mix of organic compounds and to develop suitable parameterizations of CCN evolution for larger-scale models.

  5. Temporal variations in microbial biomass C and cellulolytic enzyme activity in arable soils: effects of organic matter input

    Debosz, K.; Rasmussen, Peter Have; Pedersen, A. R.

    1999-01-01

    Temporal variations in soil microbial biomass C concentration and in activity of extracellular enzymes of the cellulolytic complex were investigated in a field experiment after eight years of cultivation with either low organic matter input (low-OM) or high organic matter input (high-OM). The...... cultivation systems differed in whether their source of fertiliser was mainly mineral or organic, in whether a winter cover crop was grown, and whether straw was mulched or removed. Sampling occurred at approximately monthly intervals, over a period of two years. Distinct temporal variations in microbial...... biomass C concentration and activity of extracellular enzymes of the cellulolytic complex were observed. The temporal pattern was generally similar in the low-OM and high-OM cultivation systems. Temporal variations may have been driven by environmental factors (e.g., temperature and moisture) and crop...

  6. Integrating Real-time and Manual Monitored Soil Moisture Data to Predict Hillslope Soil Moisture Variations with High Temporal Resolutions

    Zhu, Qing; Lv, Ligang; Zhou, Zhiwen; Liao, Kaihua

    2016-04-01

    Spatial-temporal variability of soil moisture 15 has been remaining an challenge to be better understood. A trade-off exists between spatial coverage and temporal resolution when using the manual and real-time soil moisture monitoring methods. This restricted the comprehensive and intensive examination of soil moisture dynamics. In this study, we aimed to integrate the manual and real-time monitored soil moisture to depict the hillslope dynamics of soil moisture with good spatial coverage and temporal resolution. Linear (stepwise multiple linear regression-SMLR) and non-linear models (support vector machines-SVM) were used to predict soil moisture at 38 manual sites (collected 1-2 times per month) with soil moisture automatically collected at three real-time monitoring sites (collected every 5 mins). By comparing the accuracies of SMLR and SVM for each manual site, optimal soil moisture prediction model of this site was then determined. Results show that soil moisture at these 38 manual sites can be reliably predicted (root mean square errorswetness index, profile curvature, and relative difference of soil moisture and its standard deviation influenced the selection of prediction model since they related to the dynamics of soil water distribution and movement. By using this approach, hillslope soil moisture spatial distributions at un-sampled times and dates were predicted after a typical rainfall event. Missing information of hillslope soil moisture dynamics was then acquired successfully. This can be benefit for determining the hot spots and moments of soil water movement, as well as designing the proper soil moisture monitoring plan at the field scale.

  7. Motor Skill Competence and Perceived Motor Competence: Which Best Predicts Physical Activity among Girls?

    Zeinab Khodaverdi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to determine which correlate, perceived motor competence or motor skill competence, best predicts girls' physical activity behavior.A sample of 352 girls (mean age=8.7, SD=0.3 yr participated in this study. To assess motor skill competence and perceived motor competence, each child completed the Test of Gross Motor Development-2 and Physical Ability sub-scale of Marsh's Self-Description Questionnaire. Children's physical activity was assessed by the Physical Activity Questionnaire for Older Children. Multiple linear regression model was used to determine whether perceived motor competence or motor skill competence best predicts moderate-to-vigorous self-report physical activity.Multiple regression analysis indicated that motor skill competence and perceived motor competence predicted 21% variance in physical activity (R(2=0.21, F=48.9, P=0.001, and motor skill competence (R(2=0.15, ᵝ=0.33, P= 0.001 resulted in more variance than perceived motor competence (R(2=0.06, ᵝ=0.25, P=0.001 in physical activity.Results revealed motor skill competence had more influence in comparison with perceived motor competence on physical activity level. We suggest interventional programs based on motor skill competence and perceived motor competence should be administered or implemented to promote physical activity in young girls.

  8. Can the monitoring of animal welfare parameters predict pork meat quality variation through the supply chain (from farm to slaughter)?

    Rocha, L M; Velarde, A; Dalmau, A; Saucier, L; Faucitano, L

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between the animal welfare conditions evaluated through the supply chain and pork quality variation. A total of 4,680 pigs from 12 farms-5 animal welfare improved raising system (AWIRS) and 7 conventional raising system (CON) farms-were assessed from farm to slaughter through a comprehensive audit protocol merging the European Welfare Quality, the Canadian Animal Care Assessment, and American Meat Institute audit guide criteria. At the abattoir, a subsample of 1,440 pigs (120 pigs/farm) was randomly chosen out of 24 loads (2 farms per wk) transported by 2 drivers (driver A and driver B) for the assessment of stunning effectiveness, carcass bruises, blood lactate levels, and meat quality traits. Meat quality was assessed in the longissimus lumborum (LL) muscle 24 h postmortem by measuring ultimate pH (pHu), color (L*, a*, and b*), and drip loss. Data were analyzed by the MIXED, GLIMMIX, and NAPAR1WAY procedures of SAS. Spearman correlations were calculated to determine the relationship between audit scores and meat quality traits. Better animal welfare conditions, as showed by greater final scores for good housing (GHo; = 0.001) and good health ( = 0.006) principles, were recorded at AWIRS farms. Pigs from AWIRS farms handled by driver B displayed a greater percentage of turning back ( = 0.01) and slips ( soft, and exudative pork percentage was greater ( skills as assessed by animal welfare audit protocols are important sources of variation in the behavioral response of pigs to preslaughter handling and may affect pork quality variation. However, the different live weight between CON and AWIRS pigs may have biased the meat quality results in this study. PMID:26812341

  9. Temporal variations in microbial biomass C and cellulolytic enzyme activity in arable soils: effects of organic matter input

    Debosz, K.; Rasmussen, Peter Have; Pedersen, A. R.

    1999-01-01

    Temporal variations in soil microbial biomass C concentration and in activity of extracellular enzymes of the cellulolytic complex were investigated in a field experiment after eight years of cultivation with either low organic matter input (low-OM) or high organic matter input (high-OM). The...... biomass C concentration and activity of extracellular enzymes of the cellulolytic complex were observed. The temporal pattern was generally similar in the low-OM and high-OM cultivation systems. Temporal variations may have been driven by environmental factors (e.g., temperature and moisture) and crop...... growth, i.e. by factors common to both systems but not differences in organic matter input. Pronounced and constant increases in beta-glucosidase activity (40%) and endocellulase activity (30%) in high-OM were detected across all sampling periods. The increases in microbial biomass C concentration and...

  10. Diurnal variation of upper tropospheric humidity and its relations to convective activities over tropical Africa

    E. S. Chung

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Diurnal variations of upper tropospheric humidity (UTH as well as middle tropospheric humidity (MTH were examined in conjunction with the diurnal cycle of convection over tropical Africa and the adjacent tropical Atlantic Ocean using Meteosat-8 measurements. Cloud and humidity features were also tracked to document the diurnal variations of humidity and clouds in the Lagrangian framework.

    A distinct diurnal variation of UTH (and MTH is noted over regions where tropical deep convective cloud systems are commonly observed. The amplitude of the UTH diurnal variation is larger over land, while its variations over convectively inactive subtropical regions are much smaller. The diurnal variation of UTH tends to peak during nighttime over land, lagging deep convection and high cloud whose maxima occurred in the late afternoon and the evening, respectively. The time lag between the maximum UTH and deep convection/high cloud maxima over the ocean appears to be longer in comparison to that found over land. It was also indicated that both the UTH (and MTH and the cirrus anvil cloud show a variation which is in phase, implying that moistening of the upper troposphere is closely linked to process of development and dissipation of deep convective clouds.

  11. Prediction of alcohol drinking in adolescents: Personality-traits, behavior, brain responses, and genetic variations in the context of reward sensitivity.

    Heinrich, Angela; Müller, Kathrin U; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J; Bokde, Arun L W; Bromberg, Uli; Büchel, Christian; Conrod, Patricia; Fauth-Bühler, Mira; Papadopoulos, Dimitri; Gallinat, Jürgen; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Ittermann, Bernd; Mann, Karl; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Paus, Tomáš; Pausova, Zdenka; Smolka, Michael; Ströhle, Andreas; Rietschel, Marcella; Flor, Herta; Schumann, Gunter; Nees, Frauke

    2016-07-01

    Adolescence is a time that can set the course of alcohol abuse later in life. Sensitivity to reward on multiple levels is a major factor in this development. We examined 736 adolescents from the IMAGEN longitudinal study for alcohol drinking during early (mean age=14.37) and again later (mean age=16.45) adolescence. Conducting structural equation modeling we evaluated the contribution of reward-related personality traits, behavior, brain responses and candidate genes. Personality seems to be most important in explaining alcohol drinking in early adolescence. However, genetic variations in ANKK1 (rs1800497) and HOMER1 (rs7713917) play an equal role in predicting alcohol drinking two years later and are most important in predicting the increase in alcohol consumption. We hypothesize that the initiation of alcohol use may be driven more strongly by personality while the transition to increased alcohol use is more genetically influenced. PMID:27180911

  12. Influence of sunspot number and magnetic activity on the diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field at mid to high latitudes

    Hamilton, R.A. (British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge); Hodder, B.M. (Natural Environment Research Council, Edinburgh (UK). Inst. of Geological Sciences)

    1984-02-01

    The variations of the diurnal range of the geomagnetic field with sunspot number and with magnetic activity was studied at mid and high latitude stations in the northern hemisphere at different seasons. The effect of increasing sunspot number is small at lower latitudes and increases with geomagnetic latitude, while the effect of increasing magnetic activity is to increase the range at all latitudes, very greatly at the higher geomagnetic latitudes.

  13. Variations in first principles calculated defect energies in GaAs and their effect on practical predictions

    Deepak; D Balamurugan; K Nandi

    2003-01-01

    There is an abundant literature on calculations of formation and ionization energies of point defects in GaAs. Since most of these energies, especially the formation energies, are difficult to measure, the calculations are primary means of obtaining their values. However, based on the assumptions of the calculations, the reported values differ greatly among the various calculations. In this paper we discuss the sources of errors and their impact on practical predictions valuable in GaAs device fabrication. In particular, we have compared a large set of computed energies and selected the most appropriate values. Then, in the context of GaAs material quality, we investigated the impact of errors in calculation of formation energies on the performance of the GaAs substrate for device fabrication. We find that in spite of the errors inherent in ab initio calculations, it is possible to correctly predict the behaviour of GaAs substrate.

  14. Interindividual Variation in Functionally Adapted Trait Sets Is Established During Postnatal Growth and Predictable Based on Bone Robustness

    Pandey, Nirnimesh; Bhola, Siddharth; Goldstone, Andrew; Chen, Fred; Chrzanowski, Jessica; Terranova, Carl J.; Ghillani, Richard; Jepsen, Karl J.

    2009-01-01

    Adults acquire unique sets of morphological and tissue-quality bone traits that are predictable based on robustness and deterministic of strength and fragility. How and when individual trait sets arise during growth has not been established. Longitudinal structural changes of the metacarpal diaphysis were measured for boys and girls from 3 mo to 8 yr of age using hand radiographs obtained from the Bolton-Brush collection. Robustness varied ∼2-fold among boys and girls, and individual values w...

  15. Interethnic variation of CYP2C19 alleles, 'predicted' phenotypes and 'measured' metabolic phenotypes across world populations.

    Fricke-Galindo, I; Céspedes-Garro, C; Rodrigues-Soares, F; Naranjo, M E G; Delgado, Á; de Andrés, F; López-López, M; Peñas-Lledó, E; LLerena, A

    2016-04-01

    The present study evaluates the worldwide frequency distribution of CYP2C19 alleles and CYP2C19 metabolic phenotypes ('predicted' from genotypes and 'measured' with a probe drug) among healthy volunteers from different ethnic groups and geographic regions, as well as the relationship between the 'predicted' and 'measured' CYP2C19 metabolic phenotypes. A total of 52 181 healthy volunteers were studied within 138 selected original research papers. CYP2C19*17 was 42- and 24-fold more frequent in Mediterranean-South Europeans and Middle Easterns than in East Asians (PIslands. Regarding CYP2C19 metabolic phenotype, poor metabolizers (PMs) were more frequent among Asians than in Europeans, contrarily to the phenomenon reported for CYP2D6. A correlation has been found between the frequencies of CYP2C19 poor metabolism 'predicted' from CYP2C19 genotypes (gPMs) and the poor metabolic phenotype 'measured' with a probe drug (mPMs) when subjects are either classified by ethnicity (r=0.94, P<0.001) or geographic region (r=0.99, P=0.002). Nevertheless, further research is needed in African and Asian populations, which are under-represented, and additional CYP2C19 variants and the 'measured' phenotype should be studied. PMID:26503820

  16. Individual variation in the propensity to attribute incentive salience to an appetitive cue predicts the propensity to attribute motivational salience to an aversive cue.

    Morrow, Jonathan D; Maren, Stephen; Robinson, Terry E

    2011-06-20

    It has been proposed that animals that attribute high levels of incentive salience to reward-related cues may be especially vulnerable to addiction. Individual variation has also been observed in the motivational value attributed to aversive cues, which may confer vulnerability to anxiety disorders such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). There may be a core behavioral trait that contributes to individual variation in the motivational value assigned to predictive cues regardless of emotional valence. To test this hypothesis, we used a Pavlovian conditioned approach procedure to classify rats based on whether they learned to approach and interact with a cue predicting food reward (sign-trackers) or learned upon cue presentation to go to the location of impending food delivery (goal-trackers), and then examined Pavlovian fear conditioning in the same animals. It has recently been proposed that sign-trackers are more vulnerable to substance abuse because they attribute greater incentive motivational value to drug cues. Here we show that sign-trackers also have a tendency to be more fearful of discrete cues that predict footshock. In addition, we found that goal-trackers exhibited greater contextual fear when placed back into the original fear-conditioning context in the absence of temporally discrete cues. These results suggest that there may be a subset of individuals who tend to attribute high levels of motivational salience to predictive cues regardless of emotional valence, which may predispose them to a number of psychiatric comorbidities including PTSD and substance abuse. Other individuals use contexts to appropriately modify their reactions to such salient stimuli. PMID:21316397

  17. Seasonal and magnetic activity variations of ionospheric electric fields above the southern mid-latitude station, Bundoora, Australia

    M. L. Parkinson

    Full Text Available We investigate the seasonal, local solar time, and geomagnetic activity variations of the average Doppler velocity measured by an HF digital ionosonde deployed at Bundoora, Australia (145.1° E, 37.7° S, geographic; 49° S magnetic. The Doppler velocities were heavily averaged to suppress the short-term effects (<3 hours of atmospheric gravity waves, and thereby obtain the diurnal variations attributed to the tidally-driven ionospheric dynamo and electric fields generated by magnetic disturbances. The observed seasonal variations in Doppler velocity were probably controlled by variations in the lower thermospheric winds and ionospheric conductivity above Bundoora and in the magnetically conjugate location. The diurnal variations of the meridional (field-perpendicular drifts and their perturbations exhibited a complex structure, and were generally smaller than the variations in the zonal drifts. The latter were basically strongly west-ward during the evening to early morning, and weakly east-ward during the late morning to just past noon. The zonal perturbations were strongly enhanced by increasing geomagnetic activity, and closely resembled the perturbation drifts measured by the incoherent scatter radar (ISR at Millstone Hill (71.5° W, 42.6° N; 57° N. There was also some resemblance between the diurnal variations in the meridional drifts. Overall, the comparisons suggest that with sufficient averaging, Doppler velocities measured with digital ionosondes at mid-latitudes correspond to true ion motions driven by ionospheric electric fields. This is a useful result because apart from the ISRs located in the American-European sector, there are no ground-based instruments capable of measuring electric fields in the mid-latitude ionosphere.

    Key words. Ionosphere (electric fields and currents; ionosphere atmosphere interactions; mid-latitude ionosphere

  18. Using Crater Lake chemistry to predict volcanic activity at Poás Volcano, Costa Rica

    Rowe, Gary L.; Ohsawa, Shinji; Takano, Bokuichiro; Brantley, Susan L.; Fernandez, Jose F.; Barquero, Jorge

    1992-08-01

    Monitoring of crater lake chemistry during the recent decline and disappearance of the crater lake of Poás Volcano revealed that large variations in SO4/Cl, F/Cl, and Mg/Cl ratios were caused by the enhanced release of HCl vapor from the lake surface due to increasing lake temperature and solution acidity. Variation in the concentration of polythionic acids (H2SxO6, x=4 6) was the most reliable predictor of renewed phreatic eruptive activity at the volcano, exhibiting sharp decreases three months prior to the initiation of phreatic eruptions in June 1987. Polythionic acids may offer a direct indicator of changing subsurface magmatic activity whereas chloride-based element ratios may be influenced by surface volatilization of HCl and subsequent recycling of acidic fluids in crater lake volcanoes.

  19. Seasonal Variation of Organogenetic Activity and Reserves Allocation in the Shoot Apex of Pinus pinaster Ait.

    JORDY, MARIE‐NOËLLE

    2004-01-01

    • Background and aims To understand better the basic growth characteristics of pines and the fundamental properties of the shoot apical meristem (SAM), variations within the shoot apex of buds were studied.

  20. Music-induced emotions can be predicted from a combination of brain activity and acoustic features.

    Daly, Ian; Williams, Duncan; Hallowell, James; Hwang, Faustina; Kirke, Alexis; Malik, Asad; Weaver, James; Miranda, Eduardo; Nasuto, Slawomir J

    2015-12-01

    It is widely acknowledged that music can communicate and induce a wide range of emotions in the listener. However, music is a highly-complex audio signal composed of a wide range of complex time- and frequency-varying components. Additionally, music-induced emotions are known to differ greatly between listeners. Therefore, it is not immediately clear what emotions will be induced in a given individual by a piece of music. We attempt to predict the music-induced emotional response in a listener by measuring the activity in the listeners electroencephalogram (EEG). We combine these measures with acoustic descriptors of the music, an approach that allows us to consider music as a complex set of time-varying acoustic features, independently of any specific music theory. Regression models are found which allow us to predict the music-induced emotions of our participants with a correlation between the actual and predicted responses of up to r=0.234,pmusic induced emotions can be predicted by their neural activity and the properties of the music. Given the large amount of noise, non-stationarity, and non-linearity in both EEG and music, this is an encouraging result. Additionally, the combination of measures of brain activity and acoustic features describing the music played to our participants allows us to predict music-induced emotions with significantly higher accuracies than either feature type alone (p<0.01). PMID:26544602

  1. The CR‐Ω+ Classification Algorithm for Spatio‐Temporal Prediction of Criminal Activity

    S. Godoy‐Calderón

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available We present a spatio‐temporal prediction model that allows forecasting of the criminal activity behavior in a particular region byusing supervised classification. The degree of membership of each pattern is interpreted as the forecasted increase or decreasein the criminal activity for the specified time and location. The proposed forecasting model (CR‐Ω+ is based on the family ofKora‐Ω Logical‐Combinatorial algorithms operating on large data volumes from several heterogeneous sources using aninductive learning process. We propose several modifications to the original algorithms by Bongard and Baskakova andZhuravlëv which improve the prediction performance on the studied dataset of criminal activity. We perform two analyses:punctual prediction and tendency analysis, which show that it is possible to predict punctually one of four crimes to beperpetrated (crime family, in a specific space and time, and 66% of effectiveness in the prediction of the place of crime, despiteof the noise of the dataset. The tendency analysis yielded an STRMSE (Spatio‐Temporal RMSE of less than 1.0.

  2. TEC variations during low solar activity period (2005–2007 near the Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly Crest region in India

    S. Ravindran

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The dual frequency signals from the GPS satellites recorded at Rajkot (22.29° N, 70.74° E, Geographic, 14.03° N Geomagnetic near the Equatorial ionization anomaly crest in India have been analyzed to study the ionospheric variations in terms of Total Electron Content (TEC for the low solar activity period from April 2005 to December 2007. In this study, we describe the diurnal and seasonal variations of TEC, solar activity dependence of TEC and effects of a space weather related event, a geomagnetic storm on TEC. The diurnal variation of TEC shows pre-dawn minimum for a short period of time, followed by a steep early morning increase and then reaches maximum value between 14:00 LT and 16:00 LT. The mean diurnal variations during different seasons are brought out. It is found that TEC at Rajkot is at its maximum during Equinoctial months (March, April, September, October, and minimum during the Winter months (November, December, January, February, with intermediate values during Summer months (May, June, July, August, showing a semi annual variation. TEC values have been decreasing since 2005, onwards showing positive correlation with solar activity. TEC variations during the geomagnetic storm commencing 24 August 2005 with Dst=−216 nT are analysed. TEC shows a positive ionospheric storm effect on the first day of the storm and negative ionospheric storm effect on the next day. The equatorial Electrojet control on the development of the equatorial anomaly is also demonstrated.

  3. Structure-Functional Study of Tyrosine and Methionine Dipeptides: An Approach to Antioxidant Activity Prediction

    Anna Torkova

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Quantum chemical methods allow screening and prediction of peptide antioxidant activity on the basis of known experimental data. It can be used to design the selective proteolysis of protein sources in order to obtain products with antioxidant activity. Molecular geometry and electronic descriptors of redox-active amino acids, as well as tyrosine and methionine-containing dipeptides, were studied by Density Functional Theory method. The calculated data was used to reveal several descriptors responsible for the antioxidant capacities of the model compounds based on their experimentally obtained antioxidant capacities against ABTS (2,2′-Azino-bis-(3-ethyl-benzothiazoline-6-sulfonate and peroxyl radical. A formula to predict antioxidant activity of peptides was proposed.

  4. A chemometric approach for prediction of antifungal activity of some benzoxazole derivatives against Candida albicans

    Podunavac-Kuzmanović Sanja O.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to promote and facilitate prediction of antifungal activity of the investigated series of benzoxazoles against Candida albicans. The clinical importance of this investigation is to simplify design of new antifungal agents against the fungi which can cause serious illnesses in humans. Quantitative structure activity relationship analysis was applied on nineteen benzoxazole derivatives. A multiple linear regression (MLR procedure was used to model the relationships between the molecular descriptors and the antifungal activity of benzoxazole derivatives. Two mathematical models have been developed as a calibration models for predicting the inhibitory activity of this class of compounds against Candida albicans. The quality of the models was validated by the leave-one-out technique, as well as by the calculation of statistical parameters for the established model. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 172012 i br. 172014

  5. Broad climatological variation of surface energy balance partitioning across land and ocean predicted from the maximum power limit

    Dhara, Chirag; Renner, Maik; Kleidon, Axel

    2016-07-01

    Longwave radiation and turbulent heat fluxes are the mechanisms by which the Earth's surface transfers heat into the atmosphere, thus affecting the surface temperature. However, the energy partitioning between the radiative and turbulent components is poorly constrained by energy and mass balances alone. We use a simple energy balance model with the thermodynamic limit of maximum power as an additional constraint to determine this partitioning. Despite discrepancies over tropical oceans, we find that the broad variation of heat fluxes and surface temperatures in the ERA-Interim reanalyzed observations can be recovered from this approach. The estimates depend considerably on the formulation of longwave radiative transfer, and a spatially uniform offset is related to the assumed cold temperature sink at which the heat engine operates. Our results suggest that the steady state surface energy partitioning may reflect the maximum power constraint.

  6. Activity in the right fusiform face area predicts the behavioural advantage for the perception of familiar faces.

    Weibert, Katja; Andrews, Timothy J

    2015-08-01

    People are extremely proficient at discriminating the identity of familiar faces, but are significantly worse with unfamiliar faces. Despite this clear behavioural difference in perception, the neural correlates of the advantage for familiar faces remain unclear. Here, we use an individual differences approach to explore the link between neural responses in face-selective regions and the behavioural advantage for the perception of familiar faces. First, we compared performance on an identity matching task with either familiar or unfamiliar faces. We found that participants were significantly better at matching the identity of familiar compared to unfamiliar faces. Next, we used fMRI to measure the response to familiar and unfamiliar faces. Consistent with the behavioural data, there was a significant difference in the neural response to familiar and unfamiliar faces in face-selective regions. Finally, we asked whether interindividual variation in behavioural performance could be predicted by corresponding variation in fMRI response. We found a significant correlation in the right fusiform face area (rFFA) between the difference in response to familiar and unfamiliar faces and corresponding differences on the face-matching task. That is, participants who showed a larger response to familiar compared to unfamiliar faces in the rFFA also matched familiar faces much more accurately than unfamiliar faces. No other face-selective region showed a correlation between neural and matching accuracy. These results provide a link between activity in the rFFA and the perception of familiar faces. PMID:26187507

  7. Predicting Kinase Activity in Angiotensin Receptor Phosphoproteomes Based on Sequence-Motifs and Interactions

    Bøgebo, Rikke; Horn, Heiko; Olsen, Jesper V;

    2014-01-01

    -arrestin dependent signalling. Two complimentary global phosphoproteomics studies have analyzed the complex signalling induced by the AT1aR. Here we integrate the data sets from these studies and perform a joint analysis using a novel method for prediction of differential kinase activity from phosphoproteomics data...... developed a new method for kinase-centric analysis of phosphoproteomes to pinpoint differential kinase activity in large-scale data sets....

  8. Application of Artificial Intelligence to the Prediction of the Antimicrobial Activity of Essential Oils

    Mathieu Daynac; Alvaro Cortes-Cabrera; Prieto, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    Essential oils (EOs) are vastly used as natural antibiotics in Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM). Their intrinsic chemical variability and synergisms/antagonisms between its components make difficult to ensure consistent effects through different batches. Our aim is to evaluate the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of their antimicrobial activity. Methods. The chemical composition and antimicrobial activity of 49 EOs, extracts, and/or fractions was extract...

  9. Brain Activity in Valuation Regions while Thinking about the Future Predicts Individual Discount Rates

    Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W.; Kim, B. Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

    2013-01-01

    People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future—specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals—predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite ...

  10. BRAIN REWARD ACTIVITY TO MASKED IN-GROUP SMILING FACES PREDICTS FRIENDSHIP DEVELOPMENT

    Chen, Pin-Hao A.; Whalen, Paul J.; Freeman, Jonathan B.; Taylor, James M.; Heatherton, Todd F.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined whether neural responses in the ventral striatum (VS) to in-group facial expressions—presented without explicit awareness—could predict friendship patterns in newly arrived individuals from China six months later. Individuals who initially showed greater VS activity in response to in-group happy expressions during functional neuroimaging later made considerably more in-group friends, suggesting that VS activity might reflect reward processes that drive in-group approach behaviors. PMID:26185595

  11. A general model for predicting coolant activity behaviour for fuel-failure monitoring analysis

    El-Jaby, A., E-mail: Ali.El-Jaby@cnsc-ccsn.gc.c [Department of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Royal Military College of Canada, P.O. Box 17000, Station Forces, Kingston, Ontario, K7K 7B4 (Canada); Lewis, B.J.; Thompson, W.T. [Department of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Royal Military College of Canada, P.O. Box 17000, Station Forces, Kingston, Ontario, K7K 7B4 (Canada); Iglesias, F. [Candesco Corporation, 230 Richmond Street West, 10th Floor, Toronto, Ontario, M5V 1V6 (Canada); Ip, M. [Bruce Power, 123 Front Street West, 4th Floor, Toronto, Ontario, M5J 2M2 (Canada)

    2010-04-01

    A mathematical treatment has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from operating defective nuclear fuel elements. The fission product activity in both the fuel-to-sheath gap and primary heat transport system as a function of time can be predicted during all reactor operating conditions, including: startup, steady-state, shutdown, and bundle-shifting manoeuvres. In addition, an improved ability to predict the coolant activity of the {sup 135}Xe isotope in commercial reactors is discussed. A method is also proposed to estimate both the burnup and the amount of tramp uranium deposits in-core. The model has been validated against in-reactor experiments conducted with defective fuel elements containing natural and artificial failures at the Chalk River Laboratories. Lastly, the model has been benchmarked against a defective fuel occurrence in a commercial reactor.

  12. A general model for predicting coolant activity behaviour for fuel-failure monitoring analysis

    A mathematical treatment has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from operating defective nuclear fuel elements. The fission product activity in both the fuel-to-sheath gap and primary heat transport system as a function of time can be predicted during all reactor operating conditions, including: startup, steady-state, shutdown, and bundle-shifting manoeuvres. In addition, an improved ability to predict the coolant activity of the 135Xe isotope in commercial reactors is discussed. A method is also proposed to estimate both the burnup and the amount of tramp uranium deposits in-core. The model has been validated against in-reactor experiments conducted with defective fuel elements containing natural and artificial failures at the Chalk River Laboratories. Lastly, the model has been benchmarked against a defective fuel occurrence in a commercial reactor.

  13. Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa

    Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Li, Laifang

    2016-07-01

    Seasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances (e.g., easterly waves) and the background environment in which they develop into tropical storms (i.e., the main development region). Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success. Predictions of named storms based on the July OLR field and trained only on the time period prior to the year being predicted yield a success rate of 87%, compared to the success rate of NOAA's August outlooks of 53% over the same period and with the same average uncertainty range (±2). The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer-term observed trends.

  14. A general model for predicting coolant activity behaviour for fuel-failure monitoring analysis

    El-Jaby, A.; Lewis, B. J.; Thompson, W. T.; Iglesias, F.; Ip, M.

    2010-04-01

    A mathematical treatment has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from operating defective nuclear fuel elements. The fission product activity in both the fuel-to-sheath gap and primary heat transport system as a function of time can be predicted during all reactor operating conditions, including: startup, steady-state, shutdown, and bundle-shifting manoeuvres. In addition, an improved ability to predict the coolant activity of the 135Xe isotope in commercial reactors is discussed. A method is also proposed to estimate both the burnup and the amount of tramp uranium deposits in-core. The model has been validated against in-reactor experiments conducted with defective fuel elements containing natural and artificial failures at the Chalk River Laboratories. Lastly, the model has been benchmarked against a defective fuel occurrence in a commercial reactor.

  15. Predicting active school travel: The role of planned behavior and habit strength

    Murtagh Shemane

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite strong support for predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior (TPB substantial variance in both intention and behavior is unaccounted for by the model’s predictors. The present study tested the extent to which habit strength augments the predictive validity of the TPB in relation to a currently under-researched behavior that has important health implications, namely children’s active school travel. Method Participants (N = 126 children aged 8–9 years; 59 % males were sampled from five elementary schools in the west of Scotland and completed questionnaire measures of all TPB constructs in relation to walking to school and both walking and car/bus use habit. Over the subsequent week, commuting steps on school journeys were measured objectively using an accelerometer. Hierarchical multiple regressions were used to test the predictive utility of the TPB and habit strength in relation to both intention and subsequent behavior. Results The TPB accounted for 41 % and 10 % of the variance in intention and objectively measured behavior, respectively. Together, walking habit and car/bus habit significantly increased the proportion of explained variance in both intention and behavior by 6 %. Perceived behavioral control and both walking and car/bus habit independently predicted intention. Intention and car/bus habit independently predicted behavior. Conclusions The TPB significantly predicts children’s active school travel. However, habit strength augments the predictive validity of the model. The results indicate that school travel is controlled by both intentional and habitual processes. In practice, interventions could usefully decrease the habitual use of motorized transport for travel to school and increase children’s intention to walk (via increases in perceived behavioral control and walking habit, and decreases in car/bus habit. Further research is needed to identify effective

  16. Predictive Control Applied to a Solar Desalination Plant Connected to a Greenhouse with Daily Variation of Irrigation Water Demand

    Lidia Roca

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The water deficit in the Mediterranean area is a known matter severely affecting agriculture. One way to avoid the aquifers’ exploitation is to supply water to crops by using thermal desalination processes. Moreover, in order to guarantee long-term sustainability, the required thermal energy for the desalination process can be provided by solar energy. This paper shows simulations for a case study in which a solar multi-effect distillation plant produces water for irrigation purposes. Detailed models of the involved systems are the base of a predictive controller to operate the desalination plant and fulfil the water demanded by the crops.

  17. Prediction of muscle activities from electrocorticograms in primary motor cortex of primates.

    Duk Shin

    Full Text Available Electrocorticography (ECoG has drawn attention as an effective recording approach for brain-machine interfaces (BMI. Previous studies have succeeded in classifying movement intention and predicting hand trajectories from ECoG. Despite such successes, however, there still remains considerable work for the realization of ECoG-based BMIs as neuroprosthetics. We developed a method to predict multiple muscle activities from ECoG measurements. We also verified that ECoG signals are effective for predicting muscle activities in time varying series when performing sequential movements. ECoG signals were band-pass filtered into separate sensorimotor rhythm bands, z-score normalized, and smoothed with a Gaussian filter. We used sparse linear regression to find the best fit between frequency bands of ECoG and electromyographic activity. The best average correlation coefficient and the normalized root-mean-square error were 0.92±0.06 and 0.06±0.10, respectively, in the flexor digitorum profundus finger muscle. The δ (1.5∼4Hz and γ2 (50∼90Hz bands contributed significantly more strongly than other frequency bands (P<0.001. These results demonstrate the feasibility of predicting muscle activity from ECoG signals in an online fashion.

  18. Early Prediction of Outcome of Activities of Daily Living After Stroke A Systematic Review

    Veerbeek, Janne M.; Kwakkel, Gert; van Wegen, Erwin E. H.; Ket, Johannes C. F.; Heymans, Martijn W.

    2011-01-01

    Background and Purpose-Knowledge about robust and unbiased factors that predict outcome of activities of daily living (ADL) is paramount in stroke management. This review investigates the methodological quality of prognostic studies in the early poststroke phase for final ADL to identify variables t

  19. The Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE Questionnaire; Does It Predict Physical Health?

    Lawrence L. Spriet

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available A lack of physical activity is common in older adults. With the increasing Canadian senior population, identifying the minimum amount of physical activity required to maintain the health of older adults is essential. This study determined whether relationships existed between the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE questionnaire scores and health-related measurements in community-dwelling older adults who were meal delivery volunteers. Based on observed relationships between PASE scores and health parameters, the study attempted to predict an optimal PASE score that would ensure health parameters fell in desired ranges for older adults. 297 community-dwelling older adults (61.3% female 60–88 years (72.1 ± 6.5 completed the PASE and were measured for body composition, cardiovascular and blood parameters, flexibility, and handgrip strength. Significant regression models using PASE were produced for the health-related measures, but the relationships were not meaningful due to low predictive capacity. However, correlational data suggested that a minimum PASE score of ~140 for males and ~120 for females predicted a favorable waist circumference. In conclusion, findings demonstrated that PASE scores cannot be used to predict healthy physical measures, although the relationships between PASE and WC could be used to encourage older adults to become more physically active.

  20. M-ficolin levels reflect disease activity and predict remission in early rheumatoid arthritis

    Ammitzbøll, Christian Gytz; Thiel, Steffen; Jensenius, Jens Christian;

    2013-01-01

    To assess plasma M-ficolin concentrations in disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-naive patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA), to investigate the correlation of M-ficolin concentrations with disease activity markers, and to determine the predictive value of M-ficolin with respect ...

  1. North-south asymmetry in solar activity: predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle

    Javaraiah, J

    2007-01-01

    Using Greenwich and SOON sunspot group data during the period 1874 -- 2005, we find that the sums of the areas of the sunspot groups in $0^\\circ$ -- $10^\\circ$ latitude-interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval, minus 1.35 year to plus 2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum--and in the same latitude interval of the southern hemisphere but plus 1.0 year to plus 1.75 year from the time of the maximum--of a sunspot cycle are well correlating with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of its immediate following cycle. Using this relationship it is possible to predict the amplitude of a sunspot cycle by about 9 -- 13 years in advance. We predicted $74 \\pm 10$ for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle~24. Variations in solar meridional flows during solar cycles and 9 -- 16 year variations in solar equatorial rotation may be responsible for the aforementioned relationship.

  2. Variation in trait trade-offs allows differentiation among predefined plant functional types: implications for predictive ecology.

    Verheijen, Lieneke M; Aerts, Rien; Bönisch, Gerhard; Kattge, Jens; Van Bodegom, Peter M

    2016-01-01

    Plant functional types (PFTs) aggregate the variety of plant species into a small number of functionally different classes. We examined to what extent plant traits, which reflect species' functional adaptations, can capture functional differences between predefined PFTs and which traits optimally describe these differences. We applied Gaussian kernel density estimation to determine probability density functions for individual PFTs in an n-dimensional trait space and compared predicted PFTs with observed PFTs. All possible combinations of 1-6 traits from a database with 18 different traits (total of 18 287 species) were tested. A variety of trait sets had approximately similar performance, and 4-5 traits were sufficient to classify up to 85% of the species into PFTs correctly, whereas this was 80% for a bioclimatically defined tree PFT classification. Well-performing trait sets included combinations of correlated traits that are considered functionally redundant within a single plant strategy. This analysis quantitatively demonstrates how structural differences between PFTs are reflected in functional differences described by particular traits. Differentiation between PFTs is possible despite large overlap in plant strategies and traits, showing that PFTs are differently positioned in multidimensional trait space. This study therefore provides the foundation for important applications for predictive ecology. PMID:26352461

  3. A correction factor to f-chart predictions of active solar fraction in active-passive heating systems

    Evans, B. L.; Beckman, W. A.; Duffie, J. A.; Mitchell, J. W.; Klein, S. A.

    1983-11-01

    The extent to which a passive system degrades the performance of an active solar space heating system was investigated, and a correction factor to account for these interactions was developed. The transient system simulation program TRNSYS is used to simulate the hour-by-hour performance of combined active-passive (hybrid) space heating systems in order to compare the active system performance with simplified design method predictions. The TRNSYS simulations were compared to results obtained using the simplified design calculations of the f-Chart method. Comparisons of TRNSYS and f-Chart were used to establish the accuracy of the f-Charts for active systems. A correlation was then developed to correct the monthly loads input into the f-Chart method to account for controller deadbands in both hybrid and active only buildings. A general correction factor was generated to be applied to the f-Chart method to produce more accurate and useful results for hybrid systems.

  4. Early functional magnetic resonance imaging activations predict language outcome after stroke.

    Saur, Dorothee; Ronneberger, Olaf; Kümmerer, Dorothee; Mader, Irina; Weiller, Cornelius; Klöppel, Stefan

    2010-04-01

    An accurate prediction of system-specific recovery after stroke is essential to provide rehabilitation therapy based on the individual needs. We explored the usefulness of functional magnetic resonance imaging scans from an auditory language comprehension experiment to predict individual language recovery in 21 aphasic stroke patients. Subjects with an at least moderate language impairment received extensive language testing 2 weeks and 6 months after left-hemispheric stroke. A multivariate machine learning technique was used to predict language outcome 6 months after stroke. In addition, we aimed to predict the degree of language improvement over 6 months. 76% of patients were correctly separated into those with good and bad language performance 6 months after stroke when based on functional magnetic resonance imaging data from language relevant areas. Accuracy further improved (86% correct assignments) when age and language score were entered alongside functional magnetic resonance imaging data into the fully automatic classifier. A similar accuracy was reached when predicting the degree of language improvement based on imaging, age and language performance. No prediction better than chance level was achieved when exploring the usefulness of diffusion weighted imaging as well as functional magnetic resonance imaging acquired two days after stroke. This study demonstrates the high potential of current machine learning techniques to predict system-specific clinical outcome even for a disease as heterogeneous as stroke. Best prediction of language recovery is achieved when the brain activation potential after system-specific stimulation is assessed in the second week post stroke. More intensive early rehabilitation could be provided for those with a predicted poor recovery and the extension to other systems, for example, motor and attention seems feasible. PMID:20299389

  5. Effects of seasonal variations on antioxidant activity of pink guava fruits

    Ahmad, Haniza; Abdullah, Aminah

    2014-09-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the effects of seasonal variations during rainy and hot season on antioxidant activity of pink guava fruits in approximately one year duration specifically on November 2012, December 2012, January 2013, March 2013, April 2013, May 2013, July 2013, August 2013 and November 2013. Fruit samples (Sungkai and Semenyih variants) were collected from Sime Darby Beverages plantation located in Sitiawan. The fruits were samples for 9 times from Nov 2012 to Nov 2013 except Feb 2013, Jun 2013, Sept 2013 and Oct 2013. Fruits were peeled, seeded and blended into uniform puree. Samples were then extracted for its antioxidant activity determination using 50% acetone. Antioxidant activity was evaluated using total phenolic compounds (TPC) assay, ferric-reducing antioxidant power assay (FRAP) and 1,1-diphenyl1-2-picrylhydrazyl free radical-scavenging capacity (DPPH). Analysis was conducted using 96-well microplate spectrophotometer UV. The highest TPC result was Semenyih var recorded 2192.80 mg GAE/100g FW whilst Sungkai var 1595.98 mg GAE/100g FW both on July 2013 with rainfall was at the least (45mm) and the lowest for Sungkai var was 792.75 mg GAE/100g FW and 1032.41 mg GAE/100g FW for Semenyih var, both on Nov 2012 with 185mm rainfall. There were significant negative correlation between TPC and rainfall (mm) for both Semenyih var (r = - 0.699, p<0.005, r2 = 0.489) and Sungkai var (r = -0.72, p<0.05, r2 = 0.531). The highest FRAP result (mg TE/100g FW) was 1677.74 for Semenyih var (Aug 2013, rainfall = 160.5mm) and the highest FRAP for Sungkai var was 1104.60 (Jul 2013, rainfall = 45.0mm) whereas the lowest for Semenyih and Sungkai var was 1090.22 (Mar 2013, rainfall = 97.5mm) and 767.88 (Nov 2012, rainfall = 185.50) respectively. There was weak negative correlation between FRAP and rainfall(mm) for both Sungkai var (r = - 0.324, p<0.05, r2 = 0.105) and Semenyih var (r = - 0.362, p<0.05, r2 = 0.132). The highest DPPH for Semenyih var was 88.40% (Aug

  6. Application of artificial neural network in precise prediction of cement elements percentages based on the neutron activation analysis

    Eftekhari Zadeh, E.; Feghhi, S. A. H.; Roshani, G. H.; Rezaei, A.

    2016-05-01

    Due to variation of neutron energy spectrum in the target sample during the activation process and to peak overlapping caused by the Compton effect with gamma radiations emitted from activated elements, which results in background changes and consequently complex gamma spectrum during the measurement process, quantitative analysis will ultimately be problematic. Since there is no simple analytical correlation between peaks' counts with elements' concentrations, an artificial neural network for analyzing spectra can be a helpful tool. This work describes a study on the application of a neural network to determine the percentages of cement elements (mainly Ca, Si, Al, and Fe) using the neutron capture delayed gamma-ray spectra of the substance emitted by the activated nuclei as patterns which were simulated via the Monte Carlo N-particle transport code, version 2.7. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) network is developed with four specific peaks related to Ca, Si, Al and Fe, which were extracted as inputs. The proposed RBF model is developed and trained with MATLAB 7.8 software. To obtain the optimal RBF model, several structures have been constructed and tested. The comparison between simulated and predicted values using the proposed RBF model shows that there is a good agreement between them.

  7. Variations observed in the respiratory activity of potato tubers (Solanum tuberosum L.) after a treatment with gamma radiation

    The present work studies the variations in the respiratory activity of irradiated and IPC treated potato tubers during a storage period of five months. By immediate effect of gamma radiation we can observe an increase in the oxygen consumption of the parenchyma in relation with the control tubers, such increase persists even fours months after gamma radiation. The respiratory activity is reduced in the IPC treated tubers. In the tissues cultivated in vitro the respiratory activity increases at the end of the cultivation period, not only in the control tissues but also in the irradiated ones, though this increase is greater in the control tissues. (Author) 15 refs

  8. Variations observed in the respiratory activity of potato tubers (Solanum tuberosum L.) after a treatment with gamma radiation

    The variations in the respiratory activity of irradiated and IPC treated potato tubers during a storage period of five months have been studied. By immediate effect of gamma radiation, an increase in the oxigen consumption of the parenchyma in relation with the control tubers has been observed. Such increase persits even four months after gamma radiation. The respiratory activity is reduced in the IPC treated tubers. In the tissues cultivated ''in vitro'' the respiratory activity increases at the end of the cultivation period, not only in the control tissues but also in the irradiated ones, though this increase is greater in the control tissues.(author)

  9. Variation of radon flux along active fault zones in association with earthquake occurrence

    Radon flux measurements were carried out at three radon stations along an active fault zone in the Langadas basin, Northern Greece by various techniques for earthquake prediction studies. Specially made devices with alpha track-etch detectors (ATDs) were installed by using LR-115, type II, non-strippable cellulose nitrate films (integrating method of measurements). Continuous monitoring of radon gas exhaling from the ground was also performed by using silicon diode detectors, Barasol and Clipperton type, in association with various probes and sensors including simultaneously registration of the meteorological parameters, such as precipitation height (rainfall events), temperature and barometric pressure. The obtained radon data were studied in parallel with the data of seismic events, such as the magnitude, ML of earthquakes, the epicentral distance, the hypocentral distance and the energy released during the earthquake event occurred at the fault zone during the period of measurements to find out any association between the rad on flux and the meteorological and seismological parameters. Seismic events with magnitude ML ≥ 4.0 appeared to be preceded by large precursory signals produced a well-defined 'anomaly' (peak) of radon flux prior to the event. In the results, the radon peaks in the obtained spectra appeared to be sharp and narrow. The rise time of a radon peak, that is the time period from the onset of a radon peak until the time of radon flux maximum is about a week, while the after time, that is the time interval between the time of radon flux maximum and the time of a seismic event ranges from about 3 weeks or more.

  10. FMR1 gene CGG repeat variation within the normal range is not predictive of ovarian response in IVF cycles.

    Morin, Scott J; Tiegs, Ashley W; Franasiak, Jason M; Juneau, Caroline R; Hong, Kathleen H; Werner, Marie D; Zhan, Yiping; Landis, Jessica; Scott, Richard T

    2016-05-01

    The relationship between FMR1 CGG premutation status and decreased ovarian responsiveness is well established. The association between FMR1 CGG repeat number in the currently defined normal range (less than 45 repeats) and ovarian reserve, however, is controversial. This retrospective study examined whether variation in CGG repeat number in the normal range was associated with markers of ovarian response in IVF cycles. The first IVF cycle of 3006 patients with FMR1 CGG repeat analysis was examined. Only patients carrying two alleles with less than 45 CGG repeats were included for analysis. The CGG repeat number furthest from the modal peak was plotted against number of mature oocytes retrieved and no correlation was identified. Patients were also separated into biallelic genotype groups, based on the recently proposed narrower "new normal" range of 26-34 CGG repeats. A linear regression showed that none of the biallelic genotype groups were associated with a decreased oocyte yield. The euploidy rates after comprehensive chromosomal screening were equivalent among the genotype groups. No difference was found in the rate of cycle cancellation for poor response. Despite increasing use, FMR1 CGG repeats in the normal range cannot be used as a predictor of ovarian response to gonadotrophin stimulation. PMID:27013081

  11. Reward prediction-related increases and decreases in tonic neuronal activity of the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus

    Ken-Ichi Okada

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The neuromodulators serotonin, acetylcholine, and dopamine have been proposed to play important roles in the execution of movement, control of several forms of attentional behavior, and reinforcement learning. While the response pattern of midbrain dopaminergic neurons and its specific role in reinforcement learning have been revealed, the roles of the other neuromodulators remain elusive. Reportedly, neurons in the dorsal raphe nucleus, one major source of serotonin, continually track the state of expectation of future rewards by showing a correlated response to the start of a behavioral task, reward cue presentation, and reward delivery. Here, we show that neurons in the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPTN, one major source of acetylcholine, showed similar encoding of the expectation of future rewards by a systematic increase or decrease in tonic activity. We recorded and analyzed PPTN neuronal activity in monkeys during a reward conditioned visually guided saccade task. The firing patterns of many PPTN neurons were tonically increased or decreased throughout the task period. The tonic activity pattern of neurons was correlated with their encoding of the predicted reward value; neurons exhibiting an increase or decrease in tonic activity showed higher or lower activity in the large reward-predicted trials, respectively. Tonic activity and reward-related modulation ended around the time of reward delivery. Additionally, some tonic changes in activity started prior to the appearance of the initial stimulus, and were related to the anticipatory fixational behavior. A partially overlapping population of neurons showed both the initial anticipatory response and subsequent predicted reward value-dependent activity modulation by their systematic increase or decrease of tonic activity. These bi-directional reward- and anticipatory behavior-related modulation patterns are suitable for the presumed role of the PPTN in reward processing and

  12. Phenotypic variation in metabolism and morphology correlating with animal swimming activity in the wild: relevance for the OCLTT (oxygen- and capacity-limitation of thermal tolerance), allocation and performance models

    Baktoft, Henrik; Jacobsen, Lene; Skov, Christian; Koed, Anders; Jepsen, Niels; Berg, Søren; Boel, Mikkel; Aarestrup, Kim; Svendsen, Jon Christian

    2016-01-01

    Ongoing climate change is affecting animal physiology in many parts of the world. Using metabolism, the oxygen- and capacitylimitation of thermal tolerance (OCLTT) hypothesis provides a tool to predict the responses of ectothermic animals to variation in temperature, oxygen availability and pH in the aquatic environment. The hypothesis remains controversial, however, and has been questioned in several studies. A positive relationship between aerobic metabolic scope and animal activity would b...

  13. PASS-Predicted Hepatoprotective Activity of Caesalpinia sappan in Thioacetamide-Induced Liver Fibrosis in Rats

    Farkaad A. Kadir

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The antifibrotic effects of traditional medicinal herb Caesalpinia sappan (CS extract on liver fibrosis induced by thioacetamide (TAA and the expression of transforming growth factor β1 (TGF-β1, α-smooth muscle actin (αSMA, and proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA in rats were studied. A computer-aided prediction of antioxidant and hepatoprotective activities was primarily performed with the Prediction Activity Spectra of the Substance (PASS Program. Liver fibrosis was induced in male Sprague Dawley rats by TAA administration (0.03% w/v in drinking water for a period of 12 weeks. Rats were divided into seven groups: control, TAA, Silymarin (SY, and CS 300 mg/kg body weight and 100 mg/kg groups. The effect of CS on liver fibrogenesis was determined by Masson’s trichrome staining, immunohistochemical analysis, and western blotting. In vivo determination of hepatic antioxidant activities, cytochrome P450 2E1 (CYP2E1, and matrix metalloproteinases (MPPS was employed. CS treatment had significantly increased hepatic antioxidant enzymes activity in the TAA-treated rats. Liver fibrosis was greatly alleviated in rats when treated with CS extract. CS treatment was noted to normalize the expression of TGF-β1, αSMA, PCNA, MMPs, and TIMP1 proteins. PASS-predicted plant activity could efficiently guide in selecting a promising pharmaceutical lead with high accuracy and required antioxidant and hepatoprotective properties.

  14. Predicting kinase activity in angiotensin receptor phosphoproteomes based on sequence-motifs and interactions.

    Rikke Bøgebo

    Full Text Available Recent progress in the understanding of seven-transmembrane receptor (7TMR signalling has promoted the development of a new generation of pathway selective ligands. The angiotensin II type I receptor (AT1aR is one of the most studied 7TMRs with respect to selective activation of the β-arrestin dependent signalling. Two complimentary global phosphoproteomics studies have analyzed the complex signalling induced by the AT1aR. Here we integrate the data sets from these studies and perform a joint analysis using a novel method for prediction of differential kinase activity from phosphoproteomics data. The method builds upon NetworKIN, which applies sophisticated linear motif analysis in combination with contextual network modelling to predict kinase-substrate associations with high accuracy and sensitivity. These predictions form the basis for subsequently nonparametric statistical analysis to identify likely activated kinases. This suggested that AT1aR-dependent signalling activates 48 of the 285 kinases detected in HEK293 cells. Of these, Aurora B, CLK3 and PKG1 have not previously been described in the pathway whereas others, such as PKA, PKB and PKC, are well known. In summary, we have developed a new method for kinase-centric analysis of phosphoproteomes to pinpoint differential kinase activity in large-scale data sets.

  15. Application of genetic algorithm - multiple linear regressions to predict the activity of RSK inhibitors

    Avval Zhila Mohajeri

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with developing a linear quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR model for predicting the RSK inhibition activity of some new compounds. A dataset consisting of 62 pyrazino [1,2-α] indole, diazepino [1,2-α] indole, and imidazole derivatives with known inhibitory activities was used. Multiple linear regressions (MLR technique combined with the stepwise (SW and the genetic algorithm (GA methods as variable selection tools was employed. For more checking stability, robustness and predictability of the proposed models, internal and external validation techniques were used. Comparison of the results obtained, indicate that the GA-MLR model is superior to the SW-MLR model and that it isapplicable for designing novel RSK inhibitors.

  16. Can the theory of planned behaviour predict the physical activity behaviour of individuals?

    Hobbs, Nicola; Dixon, Diane; Johnston, Marie; Howie, Kate

    2013-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) can identify cognitions that predict differences in behaviour between individuals. However, it is not clear whether the TPB can predict the behaviour of an individual person. This study employs a series of n-of-1 studies and time series analyses to examine the ability of the TPB to predict physical activity (PA) behaviours of six individuals. Six n-of-1 studies were conducted, in which TPB cognitions and up to three PA behaviours (walking, gym workout and a personally defined PA) were measured twice daily for six weeks. Walking was measured by pedometer step count, gym attendance by self-report with objective validation of gym entry and the personally defined PA behaviour by self-report. Intra-individual variability in TPB cognitions and PA behaviour was observed in all participants. The TPB showed variable predictive utility within individuals and across behaviours. The TPB predicted at least one PA behaviour for five participants but had no predictive utility for one participant. Thus, n-of-1 designs and time series analyses can be used to test theory in an individual. PMID:22943555

  17. Between-school variation in physical activity, aerobic fitness, and organized sports participation: a multi-level analysis.

    Kristensen, Peter L; Olesen, Line G; Ried-Larsen, Mathias; Grøntved, Anders; Wedderkopp, Niels; Froberg, Karsten; Andersen, Lars B

    2013-01-01

    A large proportion of a child's day is spent at school interacting with certain physical surroundings, teachers, and school friends. Thus, schools could have a marked impact on establishing physical activity habits. The aim of the present study was to assess between-school variation in physical activity, aerobic fitness, and organized sports participation. Altogether, we tested 1766 nine- and fifteen-year-old children attending 242 school classes at 35 different schools in Denmark in 1997-2003. The intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for objectively assessed physical activity ranged between 0.06 and 0.18 depending on the dimension of physical activity and the time considered (i.e. school time vs. leisure time). For aerobic fitness, an ICC of 0.10 was observed, whereas that for organized sports participation ranged between 0.01 and 0.10 depending on the age group. Studying between-school variation in physical activity provides information about the extent to which children adjust their physical activity habits according to the social and environmental circumstances that they share, and helps to plan future school-based physical activity studies, especially in terms of sample size and power calculation. PMID:22992067

  18. Variation in dietary intake and physical activity pattern as predictors of change in body mass index (BMI Z-score among Brazilian adolescents*

    Carla C. Enes

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To assess whether changes in dietary intake and physical activity pattern are associated with the annual body mass index (BMI z-score change among adolescents. Methods: The study was conducted in public schools in the city of Piracicaba, Sao Paulo, Brazil, with a probabilistic sample of 431 adolescents participating in wave I (2004 (hereafter, baseline and 299 in wave II (2005 (hereafter, follow-up. BMI, usual food intake, physical activity, screen time, sexual maturation and demographic variables were assessed twice. The association between annual change in food intake, physical activity, screen time, and annual BMI z-score changes were assessed by multiple regression. Results: The study showed a positive variation in BMI z-score over one-year. Among variables related to physical activity pattern only playing videogame and using computer increased over the year. The intake of fruits and vegetables and sugar-sweetened beverages increased over one year, while the others variables showed a reduction. An increased consumption of fatty foods (β = 0.04, p = 0.04 and sweetened natural fruit juices (β = 0.05, p = 0.03 was positively associated with the rise in BMI z-score. Conclusions: Unhealthy dietary habits can predict the BMI z-score gain more than the physical activity pattern. The intake of fatty foods and sweetened fruit juices is associated with the BMI z-score over one year.

  19. Kinetics of Hydrogen Radical Reactions with Toluene Including Chemical Activation Theory Employing System-Specific Quantum RRK Theory Calibrated by Variational Transition State Theory.

    Bao, Junwei Lucas; Zheng, Jingjing; Truhlar, Donald G

    2016-03-01

    Pressure-dependent reactions are ubiquitous in combustion and atmospheric chemistry. We employ a new calibration procedure for quantum Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel (QRRK) unimolecular rate theory within a chemical activation mechanism to calculate the pressure-falloff effect of a radical association with an aromatic ring. The new theoretical framework is applied to the reaction of H with toluene, which is a prototypical reaction in the combustion chemistry of aromatic hydrocarbons present in most fuels. Both the hydrogen abstraction reactions and the hydrogen addition reactions are calculated. Our system-specific (SS) QRRK approach is adjusted with SS parameters to agree with multistructural canonical variational transition state theory with multidimensional tunneling (MS-CVT/SCT) at the high-pressure limit. The new method avoids the need for the usual empirical estimations of the QRRK parameters, and it eliminates the need for variational transition state theory calculations as a function of energy, although in this first application we do validate the falloff curves by comparing SS-QRRK results without tunneling to multistructural microcanonical variational transition state theory (MS-μVT) rate constants without tunneling. At low temperatures, the two approaches agree well with each other, but at high temperatures, SS-QRRK tends to overestimate falloff slightly. We also show that the variational effect is important in computing the energy-resolved rate constants. Multiple-structure anharmonicity, torsional-potential anharmonicity, and high-frequency-mode vibrational anharmonicity are all included in the rate computations, and torsional anharmonicity effects on the density of states are investigated. Branching fractions, which are both temperature- and pressure-dependent (and for which only limited data is available from experiment), are predicted as a function of pressure. PMID:26841076

  20. Predicting active school travel: The role of planned behavior and habit strength

    Murtagh Shemane; Rowe David A; Elliott Mark A; McMinn David; Nelson Norah M

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Despite strong support for predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) substantial variance in both intention and behavior is unaccounted for by the model’s predictors. The present study tested the extent to which habit strength augments the predictive validity of the TPB in relation to a currently under-researched behavior that has important health implications, namely children’s active school travel. Method Participants (N = 126 children aged 8–9 years; 5...

  1. Which environmental factors predict seasonal variation in the coral health of Acropora digitifera and Acropora spicifera at Ningaloo Reef?

    Saskia Hinrichs

    Full Text Available The impact of physico-chemical factors on percent coral cover and coral health was examined on a spatial basis for two dominant Acropora species, A. digitifera and A. spicifera, at Ningaloo Reef (north-western Australia in the southeast Indian Ocean. Coral health was investigated by measuring metabolic indices (RNA/DNA ratio and protein concentration, energy levels (lipid ratio and autotrophic indices (chlorophyll a (chl a and zooxanthellae density at six stations during typical seasons (austral autumn 2010 (March and April, austral winter 2010 (August and during an extreme La Niña event in summer 2011 (February. These indices were correlated with 15 physico-chemical factors (measured immediately following coral sampling to identify predictors for health indices. Variations in metabolic indices (protein concentration and RNA/DNA ratio for A. spicifera were mainly explained by nitrogen, temperature and zooplankton concentrations under typical conditions, while for A. digitifera, light as well as phytoplankton, in particular picoeukaryotes, were important, possibly due to higher energy requirement for lipid synthesis and storage in A. digitifera. Optimum metabolic values occurred for both Acropora species at 26-28°C when autotrophic indices (chl a and zooxanthellae density were lowest. The extreme temperature during the La Niña event resulted in a shift of feeding modes, with an increased importance of water column plankton concentrations for metabolic rates of A. digitifera and light and plankton for A. spicifera. Our results suggest that impacts of high sea surface temperatures during extreme events such as La Niña may be mitigated via reduction on metabolic rates in coral host. The high water column plankton concentrations and associated low light levels resulted in a shift towards high symbiont densities, with lower metabolic rates and energy levels than the seasonal norm for the coral host.

  2. Which environmental factors predict seasonal variation in the coral health of Acropora digitifera and Acropora spicifera at Ningaloo Reef?

    Hinrichs, Saskia; Patten, Nicole L; Feng, Ming; Strickland, Daniel; Waite, Anya M

    2013-01-01

    The impact of physico-chemical factors on percent coral cover and coral health was examined on a spatial basis for two dominant Acropora species, A. digitifera and A. spicifera, at Ningaloo Reef (north-western Australia) in the southeast Indian Ocean. Coral health was investigated by measuring metabolic indices (RNA/DNA ratio and protein concentration), energy levels (lipid ratio) and autotrophic indices (chlorophyll a (chl a) and zooxanthellae density) at six stations during typical seasons (austral autumn 2010 (March and April), austral winter 2010 (August)) and during an extreme La Niña event in summer 2011 (February). These indices were correlated with 15 physico-chemical factors (measured immediately following coral sampling) to identify predictors for health indices. Variations in metabolic indices (protein concentration and RNA/DNA ratio) for A. spicifera were mainly explained by nitrogen, temperature and zooplankton concentrations under typical conditions, while for A. digitifera, light as well as phytoplankton, in particular picoeukaryotes, were important, possibly due to higher energy requirement for lipid synthesis and storage in A. digitifera. Optimum metabolic values occurred for both Acropora species at 26-28°C when autotrophic indices (chl a and zooxanthellae density) were lowest. The extreme temperature during the La Niña event resulted in a shift of feeding modes, with an increased importance of water column plankton concentrations for metabolic rates of A. digitifera and light and plankton for A. spicifera. Our results suggest that impacts of high sea surface temperatures during extreme events such as La Niña may be mitigated via reduction on metabolic rates in coral host. The high water column plankton concentrations and associated low light levels resulted in a shift towards high symbiont densities, with lower metabolic rates and energy levels than the seasonal norm for the coral host. PMID:23637770

  3. Predicting Child Physical Activity and Screen Time: Parental Support for Physical Activity and General Parenting Styles

    Langer, Shelby L; Crain, A. Lauren; Senso, Meghan M.; Levy, Rona L.; Sherwood, Nancy E

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine relationships between parenting styles and practices and child moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and screen time. Methods: Participants were children (6.9 ± 1.8 years) with a body mass index in the 70–95th percentile and their parents (421 dyads). Parent-completed questionnaires assessed parental support for child physical activity (PA), parenting styles and child screen time. Children wore accelerometers to assess MVPA. Results: Parenting style did not predi...

  4. Prostate volume changes during permanent seed brachytherapy: an analysis of intra-operative variations, predictive factors and clinical implication

    To determine prostate volume (Pvol) changes at 3 different time points during the course of I125 permanent seed brachytherapy (PB). To assess the impact of these changes on acute urinary retention (AUR) and dosimetric outcome. We analyzed 149 hormone-naïve patients. Measurements of the prostate volume were done using three-dimensional transrectal ultrasound (3D-TRUS) in the operating room before insertion of any needle (V1), after the insertion of 2 fixation needles with a harpoon (V2) and upon completion of the implant (V3). The quality of the implant was analyzed with the D90 (minimum dose in Grays received by 90% of the prostate volume) at day 30. Mean baseline prostate volume (V1) was 37.4 ± 9.6 cc. A volume increase of >5% was seen in 51% between V1-V2 (mean = 2.5 cc, p < 0.01), in 42% between V2-V3 (mean = 1.9 cc, p < 0.01) and in 71% between V1-V3 (mean = 4.5 cc, p < 0.01). Pvol changes caused by insertion of the fixation needles were not statistically different than those caused by the implant itself (p = 0.23). In multivariate linear regression analysis, baseline Pvol is predictive of Pvol changes between V2 and V1 and V3 and V1 but not between V3 and V2. The extent of prostate swelling had an influence on D90. An increase of 10% in prostate volume between V1 and V2 results in an increase of D90 at Day 30 by 11.7%. Baseline Pvol (V1) was the only predictor of the duration of urinary retention in both univariate and multivariate (p = 0.04) regression analysis. A large part of intraoperative swelling occurs already after the insertion of the fixation needles. This early prostate swelling predicts for D90 but not for AUR

  5. Does a variation in self-reported physical activity reflect variation in objectively measured physical activity, resting heart rate, and physical fitness? Results from the Tromso study

    Emaus, Aina; Degerstrøm, Jorid; Wilsgaard, Tom;

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: To study the association between self-reported physical activity (PA) and objectively measured PA, resting heart rate, and physical fitness. METHODS: During 2007-08, 5017 men and 5607 women aged 30-69 years attended the sixth survey of the Tromsø study. Self-reported PA during leisure......) (ml/kg/min) (women 0.40, p <0.001, men 0.44 p <0.001) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (>2000 counts/min) (women 0.28, p <0.01, men 0.25, p <0.01). The intra-class correlation coefficient between self-reported leisure PA and overall PA (counts/min) measured by accelerometer was 0.62 (95% CI 0.51, 0.71) for...... women and 0.59 (95% CI 0.47, 0.69) for men, and for VO₂(max) the intra-class correlation coefficient was 0.86 (95% CI 0.81, 0.90) for both sexes. Among all participants, an inverse dose-response relationship was observed between self-reported leisure PA and resting heart rate for both men and women (p...

  6. A model for signal processing and predictive control of semi-active structural control system

    M-H Shih; W-P Sung; Ching-Jong Wang

    2009-06-01

    The theory for structural control has been well developed and applied to perform excellent energy dissipation using dampers. Both active and semi-active control systems may be used to decide on the optimal switch point of the damper based on the current and past structural responses to the excitation of external forces. However, numerous noises may occur when the control signals are accessed and transported thus causing a delay of the damper. Therefore, a predictive control technique that integrates an improved method of detecting the control signal based on the direction of the structural motion, and a calculator for detecting the velocity using the least-square polynomial regression is proposed in this research. Comparisons of the analytical data and experimental results show that this predictor is effective in switching the moving direction of the semi-active damper. This conclusion is further verified using the component and shaking table test with constant amplitude but various frequencies, and the El Centro earthquake test. All tests confirm that this predictive control technique is effective to alleviate the time delay problem of semi-active dampers. This predictive control technique promotes about 30% to 40% reduction of the structural displacement response and about 35% to 45% reduction of the structural acceleration response.

  7. Resting lateralized activity predicts the cortical response and appraisal of emotions: an fNIRS study.

    Balconi, Michela; Grippa, Elisabetta; Vanutelli, Maria Elide

    2015-12-01

    This study explored the effect of lateralized left-right resting brain activity on prefrontal cortical responsiveness to emotional cues and on the explicit appraisal (stimulus evaluation) of emotions based on their valence. Indeed subjective responses to different emotional stimuli should be predicted by brain resting activity and should be lateralized and valence-related (positive vs negative valence). A hemodynamic measure was considered (functional near-infrared spectroscopy). Indeed hemodynamic resting activity and brain response to emotional cues were registered when subjects (N = 19) viewed emotional positive vs negative stimuli (IAPS). Lateralized index response during resting state, LI (lateralized index) during emotional processing and self-assessment manikin rating were considered. Regression analysis showed the significant predictive effect of resting activity (more left or right lateralized) on both brain response and appraisal of emotional cues based on stimuli valence. Moreover, significant effects were found as a function of valence (more right response to negative stimuli; more left response to positive stimuli) during emotion processing. Therefore, resting state may be considered a predictive marker of the successive cortical responsiveness to emotions. The significance of resting condition for emotional behavior was discussed. PMID:25862673

  8. Development of a predictive model to determine micropollutant removal using granular activated carbon

    D. J. de Ridder

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of organic micropollutants in drinking water and its sources has opened up a field of study related to monitoring concentration levels in water sources, evaluating their toxicity and estimating their removal in drinking water treatment processes. Because a large number of organic micropollutants is currently present (although in relatively low concentrations in drinking water sources, a method should be developed to select which micropollutants has to be evaluated with priority. In this paper, a screening model is presented that can predict solute removal by activated carbon, in ultrapure water and in natural water. Solute removal prediction is based on a combination of solute hydrophobicity (expressed as log D, the pH corrected log Kow, solute charge and the carbon dose. Solute molecular weight was also considered as model input parameter, but this solute property appeared to relate insufficiently to solute removal.

    Removal of negatively charged solutes by preloaded activated carbon was reduced while the removal of positively charged solutes was increased, compared with freshly regenerated activated carbon. Differences in charged solute removal by freshly regenerated activated carbon were small, indicating that charge interactions are an important mechanism in adsorption onto preloaded carbon. The predicted solute removal was within 20 removal-% deviation of experimentally measured values.

  9. Development of a predictive model to determine micropollutant removal using granular activated carbon

    D. J. de Ridder

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of organic micropollutants in drinking water and its sources has opened up a field of study related to monitoring concentration levels in water sources, evaluating their toxicity and estimating their removal in drinking water treatment processes. Because a large number of organic micropollutants is currently present (although in relatively low concentrations in drinking water sources, a method should be developed to select which micropollutants has to be evaluated with priority. In this paper, a screening model is presented that can predict solute removal by activated carbon, in ultrapure water and in natural water. Solute removal prediction is based on a combination of solute hydrophobicity (expressed as log D, the pH corrected log Kow, solute charge and the carbon dose. Solute molecular weight was also considered as model input parameter, but this solute property appeared to relate insufficiently to solute removal.

    Removal of negatively charged solutes by preloaded activated carbon was reduced while the removal of positively charged solutes was increased, compared with freshly regenerated activated carbon. Differences in charged solute removal by freshly regenerated activated carbon were small, indicating that charge interactions are an important mechanism in adsorption onto preloaded carbon. The predicted solute removal was within 20 removal-% deviation of experimentally measured values for most solutes.

  10. Statistical analysis and verification of 3-hourly geomagnetic activity probability predictions

    Wang, Jingjing; Zhong, Qiuzhen; Liu, Siqing; Miao, Juan; Liu, Fanghua; Li, Zhitao; Tang, Weiwei

    2015-12-01

    The Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) has classified geomagnetic activity into four levels: quiet to unsettled (Kp 6). The 3-hourly Kp index prediction product provided by the SEPC is updated half hourly. In this study, the statistical conditional forecast models for the 3-hourly geomagnetic activity level were developed based on 10 years of data and applied to more than 3 years of data, using the previous Kp index, interplanetary magnetic field, and solar wind parameters measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer as conditional parameters. The quality of the forecast models was measured and compared against verifications of accuracy, reliability, discrimination capability, and skill of predicting all geomagnetic activity levels, especially the probability of reaching the storm level given a previous "calm" (nonstorm level) or "storm" (storm level) condition. It was found that the conditional models that used the previous Kp index, the peak value of BtV (the product of the total interplanetary magnetic field and speed), the average value of Bz (the southerly component of the interplanetary magnetic field), and BzV (the product of the southerly component of the interplanetary magnetic field and speed) over the last 6 h as conditional parameters provide a relative operating characteristic area of 0.64 and can be an appropriate predictor for the probability forecast of geomagnetic activity level.

  11. Design and prediction of new acetylcholinesterase inhibitor via quantitative structure activity relationship of huprines derivatives.

    Zhang, Shuqun; Hou, Bo; Yang, Huaiyu; Zuo, Zhili

    2016-05-01

    Acetylcholinesterase (AChE) is an important enzyme in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Comparative quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analyses on some huprines inhibitors against AChE were carried out using comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA), comparative molecular similarity indices analysis (CoMSIA), and hologram QSAR (HQSAR) methods. Three highly predictive QSAR models were constructed successfully based on the training set. The CoMFA, CoMSIA, and HQSAR models have values of r (2) = 0.988, q (2) = 0.757, ONC = 6; r (2) = 0.966, q (2) = 0.645, ONC = 5; and r (2) = 0.957, q (2) = 0.736, ONC = 6. The predictabilities were validated using an external test sets, and the predictive r (2) values obtained by the three models were 0.984, 0.973, and 0.783, respectively. The analysis was performed by combining the CoMFA and CoMSIA field distributions with the active sites of the AChE to further understand the vital interactions between huprines and the protease. On the basis of the QSAR study, 14 new potent molecules have been designed and six of them are predicted to be more active than the best active compound 24 described in the literature. The final QSAR models could be helpful in design and development of novel active AChE inhibitors. PMID:26832327

  12. Predicting brain activation patterns associated with individual lexical concepts based on five sensory-motor attributes.

    Fernandino, Leonardo; Humphries, Colin J; Seidenberg, Mark S; Gross, William L; Conant, Lisa L; Binder, Jeffrey R

    2015-09-01

    While major advances have been made in uncovering the neural processes underlying perceptual representations, our grasp of how the brain gives rise to conceptual knowledge remains relatively poor. Recent work has provided strong evidence that concepts rely, at least in part, on the same sensory and motor neural systems through which they were acquired, but it is still unclear whether the neural code for concept representation uses information about sensory-motor features to discriminate between concepts. In the present study, we investigate this question by asking whether an encoding model based on five semantic attributes directly related to sensory-motor experience - sound, color, visual motion, shape, and manipulation - can successfully predict patterns of brain activation elicited by individual lexical concepts. We collected ratings on the relevance of these five attributes to the meaning of 820 words, and used these ratings as predictors in a multiple regression model of the fMRI signal associated with the words in a separate group of participants. The five resulting activation maps were then combined by linear summation to predict the distributed activation pattern elicited by a novel set of 80 test words. The encoding model predicted the activation patterns elicited by the test words significantly better than chance. As expected, prediction was successful for concrete but not for abstract concepts. Comparisons between encoding models based on different combinations of attributes indicate that all five attributes contribute to the representation of concrete concepts. Consistent with embodied theories of semantics, these results show, for the first time, that the distributed activation pattern associated with a concept combines information about different sensory-motor attributes according to their respective relevance. Future research should investigate how additional features of phenomenal experience contribute to the neural representation of conceptual

  13. Variation in daily flight activity and foraging patterns in colonies of uruçu - Melipona scutellaris Latreille (Apidae, Meliponini)

    2003-01-01

    The flight activities of five colonies of Melipona (Michmelia) scutellaris Latreille, 1811 kept among mixed fruit crop plantations in within fragments of Atlantic Rainforest in Pernambuco, NE-Brazil was examined. The daily deployment of foragers to collect pollen, nectar, resin and mud was observed. The colonies performed between 2,640 and 14,250 flights per day. Variations in the number of total daily flights were similar between colonies on all observation days. Proportional allocation of f...

  14. Molluscicidal activity of crown of Christ (Euphorbia splendens var. hislopii) (Euphorbiaceae) latex submitted to pH variation

    Vasconcellos Maurício Carvalho de; Santos José Augusto Albuquerque dos; Silva Ivonise Paz da; Lopes Fátima Eliana Ferreira; Schall Virgínia Torres

    2003-01-01

    Laboratory and field bioassays have confirmed the specificity of the molluscicidal activity of the Euphorbia splendens var. hislopii latex (crown of Christ) (Euphorbiaceae) over snails of the species Biomphalaria glabrata, B. tenagophila, B. straminea, B. pfeifferi and Bulinus sp. in the control of Schistosoma mansoni. In the present study, the effect of the pH variation on lethal concentration (LC90) over B. tenagophila was evaluated. Bioassays with the aqueous solutions of the latex ranging...

  15. Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Occurrence and Foraging Activity of Coastal Dolphins in Menai Bay, Zanzibar, Tanzania

    Andrew J Temple; Tregenza, Nick; Amir, Omar A.; Jiddawi, Narriman; Berggren, Per

    2016-01-01

    Understanding temporal patterns in distribution, occurrence and behaviour is vital for the effective conservation of cetaceans. This study used cetacean click detectors (C-PODs) to investigate spatial and temporal variation in occurrence and foraging activity of the Indo-Pacific bottlenose (Tursiops aduncus) and Indian Ocean humpback (Sousa plumbea) dolphins resident in the Menai Bay Conservation Area (MBCA), Zanzibar, Tanzania. Occurrence was measured using detection positive minutes. Inter-...

  16. Seasonal Variation in Total Phenolic and Flavonoid Contents and DPPH Scavenging Activity of Bellis perennis L. Flowers

    Tomáš Siatka; Marie Kašparová

    2010-01-01

    Variations in total phenolic and flavonoid contents as well as antioxidant activity of Bellis perennis (common daisy) flowers were investigated. The flowers were collected monthly (from March to October, i.e., during the usual flowering season of the plant) at three localities in three different years. Total flavonoids were determined spectrophotometrically by two methods: by formation of a complex with aluminium chloride after acidic hydrolysis of flower extracts (method 1) and by reaction w...

  17. Broca's region and Visual Word Form Area activation differ during a predictive Stroop task

    Wallentin, Mikkel; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg; Skakkebæk, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Competing theories attempt to explain the function of Broca's area in single word processing. Studies have found the region to be more active during processing of pseudo words than real words and during infrequent words relative to frequent words and during Stroop (incongruent) color words compared...... to Non-Stroop (congruent) words. Two related theories explain these findings as reflecting either “cognitive control” processing in the face of conflicting input or a linguistic prediction error signal, based on a predictive coding approach. The latter implies that processing cost refers to...... violations of expectations based on the statistical distributions of input. In this fMRI experiment we attempted to disentangle single word processing cost originating from cognitive conflict and that stemming from predictive expectation violation. Participants (N = 49) responded to whether the words “GREEN...

  18. Prediction of the antiglycation activity of polysaccharides from Benincasa hispida using a response surface methodology.

    Jiang, Xiang; Kuang, Fei; Kong, Fansheng; Yan, Chunyan

    2016-10-20

    Benincasa hispida is a popular vegetable in China. Our previous experiments suggested that polysaccharides isolated from B. hispida fruits (PBH) have antiglycation effect and DPPH free radical scavenging activity. Ultrasonic treatments can be used to extract polysaccharides from Benincasa hispida (PBH). The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation between the ultrasonic treatment conditions and the antiglycation activity of PBH. A mathematical model was generated with an artificial neural network (ANN) toolbox from MATLAB to analyze the effects of ultrasonic treatment conditions on antiglycation activity. The response surface plots showed relationships between ultrasonic extraction conditions and bioactivity. The R(2) value of the model was 0.9919, which suggested good fitness of the neural network. The application of genetic algorithms showed that the optimal ultrasonic extraction conditions resulted in the highest antiglycation activity for PBH. These were 150W, 46°C, and 35min. These conditions produced a predicted antiglycation activity of 41.2%; the actual activity was 40.9% under optimal conditions. This is very close to the predicted value. The experimental data indicated that the PBH possessed both antiglycation and antioxidant activities. The maximum actual value of antiglycation was 101.7% that of the positive control, and the PBH inhibited the DPPH free radicals with an EC50 value of 0.98mg/mL. This is 66.2% that of ascorbic acid. These results explained the observations that B. hispida can decrease glucose levels in diabetic patients. The experimental results also showed that the ANN could be used for optimization and prediction. PMID:27474577

  19. Predicting interwell heterogeneity in fluvial-deltaic reservoirs: Outcrop observations and applications of progressive facies variation through a depositional cycle

    Knox, P.R.; Barton, M.D. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    1997-08-01

    Nearly 11 billion barrels of mobile oil remain in known domestic fluvial-deltaic reservoirs despite their mature status. A large percentage of this strategic resource is in danger of permanent loss through premature abandonment. Detailed reservoir characterization studies that integrate advanced technologies in geology, geophysics, and engineering are needed to identify remaining resources that can be targeted by near-term recovery methods, resulting in increased production and the postponement of abandonment. The first and most critical step of advanced characterization studies is the identification of reservoir architecture. However, existing subsurface information, primarily well logs, provides insufficient lateral resolution to identify low-permeability boundaries that exist between wells and compartmentalize the reservoir. Methods to predict lateral variability in fluvial-deltaic reservoirs have been developed on the basis of outcrop studies and incorporate identification of depositional setting and position within a depositional cycle. The position of a reservoir within the framework of a depositional cycle is critical. Outcrop studies of the Cretaceous Ferron Sandstone of Utah have demonstrated that the architecture and internal heterogeneity of sandstones deposited within a given depositional setting (for example, delta front) vary greatly depending upon whether they were deposited in the early, progradational part of a cycle or the late, retrogradational part of a cycle. The application of techniques similar to those used by this study in other fluvial-deltaic reservoirs will help to estimate the amount and style of remaining potential in mature reservoirs through a quicklook evaluation, allowing operators to focus characterization efforts on reservoirs that have the greatest potential to yield additional resources.

  20. Nestling activity levels during begging behaviour predicts activity level and body mass in adulthood

    McCowan, Luke S.C.; Griffith, Simon C

    2014-01-01

    Across a range of species including humans, personality traits, or differences in behaviour between individuals that are consistent over time, have been demonstrated. However, few studies have measured whether these consistent differences are evident in very young animals, and whether they persist over an individual’s entire lifespan. Here we investigated the begging behaviour of very young cross-fostered zebra finch nestlings and the relationship between that and adult activity levels. We fo...

  1. Statistical analysis of automatically detected ion density variations recorded by DEMETER and their relation to seismic activity

    Michel Parrot

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available

    Many examples of ionospheric perturbations observed during large seismic events were recorded by the low-altitude satellite DEMETER. However, there are also ionospheric variations without seismic activity. The present study is devoted to a statistical analysis of the night-time ion density variations. Software was implemented to detect variations in the data before earthquakes world-wide. Earthquakes with magnitudes >4.8 were selected and classified according to their magnitudes, depths and locations (land, close to the coast, or below the sea. For each earthquake, an automatic search for ion density variations was conducted from 15 days before the earthquake, when the track of the satellite orbit was at less than 1,500 km from the earthquake epicenter. The result of this first step provided the variations relative to the background in the vicinity of the epicenter for each 15 days before each earthquake. In the second step, comparisons were carried out between the largest variations over the 15 days and the earthquake magnitudes. The statistical analysis is based on calculation of the median values as a function of the various seismic parameters (magnitude, depth, location. A comparison was also carried out with two other databases, where on the one hand, the locations of the epicenters were randomly modified, and on the other hand, the longitudes of the epicenters were shifted. The results show that the intensities of the ionospheric perturbations are larger prior to the earthquakes than prior to random events, and that the perturbations increase with the earthquake magnitudes.


  2. Predicting trace organic compound attenuation with spectroscopic parameters in powdered activated carbon processes.

    Ziska, Austin D; Park, Minkyu; Anumol, Tarun; Snyder, Shane A

    2016-08-01

    The removal of trace organic compounds (TOrCs) is of growing interest in water research and society. Powdered activated carbon (PAC) has been proven to be an effective method of removal for TOrCs in water, with the degree of effectiveness depending on dosage, contact time, and activated carbon type. In this study, the attenuation of TOrCs in three different secondary wastewater effluents using four PAC materials was studied in order to elucidate the effectiveness and efficacy of PAC for TOrC removal. With the notable exception of hydrochlorothiazide, all 14 TOrC indicators tested in this study exhibited a positive correlation of removal rate with their log Dow values, demonstrating that the main adsorption mechanism was hydrophobic interaction. As a predictive model, the modified Chick-Watson model, often used for the prediction of microorganism inactivation by disinfectants, was applied. The applied model exhibited good predictive power for TOrC attenuation by PAC in wastewater. In addition, surrogate models based upon spectroscopic measurements including UV absorbance at 254 nm and total fluorescence were applied to predict TOrC removal by PAC. The surrogate model was found to provide an excellent prediction of TOrC attenuation for all combinations of water quality and PAC type included in this study. The success of spectrometric parameters as surrogates in predicting TOrC attenuation by PAC are particularly useful because of their potential application in real-time on-line sensor monitoring and process control at full-scale water treatment plants, which could lead to significantly reduced operator response times and PAC operational optimization. PMID:27174829

  3. Physical meaning of the equinoctial effect for semi-annual variation in geomagnetic activity

    A. Yoshida

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Physical meaning of the equinoctial effect for semi-annual variation in geomagnetic activity is investigated based on the three-hourly am index and solar wind parameters. When the z component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM coordinates is southward, am indices are well correlated with BsVx2, where Bs is the southward component of the IMF and Vx is the solar wind velocity in the sun-earth direction. The am-BsVx2 relationship, however, depends on the range of Vx2: the am in higher ranges of Vx2 tends to be larger than am in lower ranges of Vx2 for the same value of BsVx2 for both equinoctial and solstitial epochs. Using the data sets of the same Vx2 range, it is shown that distribution of points in the am-BsVx2 diagram at the solstitial epochs overlaps with that at the equinoctial epochs and the average am values in each BsVx2 bin in solstitial epochs are closely consistent with those in equinoctial epochs, if Vx2 for each point at solstices are reduced to Vx2sin2 (Ψ where Ψ is the geomagnetic colatitude of the sub-solar point. Further, it is shown that monthly averages of the am index in the long period is well correlated with the values of sin2(ψ for the middle day of each month. These findings indicate that the factor that contributes to the generation of geomagnetic disturbance is not the velocity of the solar wind, but the component of the solar wind velocity perpendicular to the dipole axis of the geomagnetic

  4. Real-time prediction of neuronal population spiking activity using FPGA.

    Li, Will X Y; Cheung, Ray C C; Chan, Rosa H M; Song, Dong; Berger, Theodore W

    2013-08-01

    A field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based hardware architecture is proposed and utilized for prediction of neuronal population firing activity. The hardware system adopts the multi-input multi-output (MIMO) generalized Laguerre-Volterra model (GLVM) structure to describe the nonlinear dynamic neural process of mammalian brain and can switch between the two important functions: estimation of GLVM coefficients and prediction of neuronal population spiking activity (model outputs). The model coefficients are first estimated using the in-sample training data; then the output is predicted using the out-of-sample testing data and the field estimated coefficients. Test results show that compared with previous software implementation of the generalized Laguerre-Volterra algorithm running on an Intel Core i7-2620M CPU, the FPGA-based hardware system can achieve up to 2.66×10(3) speedup in doing model parameters estimation and 698.84 speedup in doing model output prediction. The proposed hardware platform will facilitate research on the highly nonlinear neural process of the mammal brain, and the cognitive neural prosthesis design. PMID:23893208

  5. Quantitative structure-activity relationship to predict acute fish toxicity of organic solvents.

    Levet, A; Bordes, C; Clément, Y; Mignon, P; Chermette, H; Marote, P; Cren-Olivé, C; Lantéri, P

    2013-10-01

    REACH regulation requires ecotoxicological data to characterize industrial chemicals. To limit in vivo testing, Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSARs) are advocated to predict toxicity of a molecule. In this context, the topic of this work was to develop a reliable QSAR explaining the experimental acute toxicity of organic solvents for fish trophic level. Toxicity was expressed as log(LC50), the concentration in mmol.L(-1) producing the 50% death of fish. The 141 chemically heterogeneous solvents of the dataset were described by physico-chemical descriptors and quantum theoretical parameters calculated via Density Functional Theory. The best subsets of solvent descriptors for LC50 prediction were chosen both through the Kubinyi function associated with Enhanced Replacement Method and a stepwise forward multiple linear regressions. The 4-parameters selected in the model were the octanol-water partition coefficient, LUMO energy, dielectric constant and surface tension. The predictive power and robustness of the QSAR developed were assessed by internal and external validations. Several techniques for training sets selection were evaluated: a random selection, a LC50-based selection, a balanced selection in terms of toxic and non-toxic solvents, a solvent profile-based selection with a space filling technique and a D-optimality onions-based selection. A comparison with fish LC50 predicted by ECOSAR model validated for neutral organics confirmed the interest of the QSAR developed for the prediction of organic solvent aquatic toxicity regardless of the mechanism of toxic action involved. PMID:23866172

  6. Single-trial prediction of reaction time variability from MEG brain activity.

    Ohata, Ryu; Ogawa, Kenji; Imamizu, Hiroshi

    2016-01-01

    Neural activity prior to movement onset contains essential information for predictive assistance for humans using brain-machine-interfaces (BMIs). Even though previous studies successfully predicted different goals for upcoming movements, it is unclear whether non-invasive recording signals contain the information to predict trial-by-trial behavioral variability under the same movement. In this paper, we examined the predictability of subsequent short or long reaction times (RTs) from magnetoencephalography (MEG) signals in a delayed-reach task. The difference in RTs was classified significantly above chance from 550 ms before the go-signal onset using the cortical currents in the premotor cortex. Significantly above-chance classification was performed in the lateral prefrontal and the right inferior parietal cortices at the late stage of the delay period. Thus, inter-trial variability in RTs is predictable information. Our study provides a proof-of-concept of the future development of non-invasive BMIs to prevent delayed movements. PMID:27250872

  7. Quantitative perturbation-based analysis of gene expression predicts enhancer activity in early Drosophila embryo.

    Sayal, Rupinder; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Pushel, Irina; Taylor, Benjamin R; Arnosti, David N

    2016-01-01

    Enhancers constitute one of the major components of regulatory machinery of metazoans. Although several genome-wide studies have focused on finding and locating enhancers in the genomes, the fundamental principles governing their internal architecture and cis-regulatory grammar remain elusive. Here, we describe an extensive, quantitative perturbation analysis targeting the dorsal-ventral patterning gene regulatory network (GRN) controlled by Drosophila NF-κB homolog Dorsal. To understand transcription factor interactions on enhancers, we employed an ensemble of mathematical models, testing effects of cooperativity, repression, and factor potency. Models trained on the dataset correctly predict activity of evolutionarily divergent regulatory regions, providing insights into spatial relationships between repressor and activator binding sites. Importantly, the collective predictions of sets of models were effective at novel enhancer identification and characterization. Our study demonstrates how experimental dataset and modeling can be effectively combined to provide quantitative insights into cis-regulatory information on a genome-wide scale. PMID:27152947

  8. The role of solar activity variations and ozonosphere state as global dimming of earth's atmosphere

    Александр Вадимович Холопцев

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The location of the segments of the Earth's atmosphere, in which important factors of interannual variations of monthly mean values of the optical density of clouds are coincident with them over time change the corresponding values of total ozone content and the Wolf numbers have been revealed. The impact of these changes on the effect of "global dimming" will intensify with further increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. 

  9. Limited ability of existing nomograms to predict outcomes in men undergoing active surveillance for prostate cancer

    Wang, SY; Cowan, JE; Clint Cary, K; Chan, JM; Carroll, PR; Cooperberg, MR

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To assess the ability of current nomograms to predict disease progression at repeat biopsy or at delayed radical prostatectomy (RP) in a prospectively accrued cohort of patients managed by active surveillance (AS). Materials and Methods: A total of 273 patients meeting low-risk criteria who were managed by AS and who underwent multiple biopsies and/or delayed RP were included in the study. The Kattan (base, medium and full), Steyerberg, Nakanishi and Chun nomograms were used to cal...

  10. Using activity-based modeling to predict spatial and temporal electrical vehicle power demand in Flanders

    Knapen, Luk; Kochan, Bruno; BELLEMANS, Tom; JANSSENS, Davy; Wets, Geert

    2012-01-01

    Electric power demand for household generated traffic is estimated as a function of time and space for the region of Flanders. An activity-based model is used to predict traffic demand. Electric vehicle (EV) type and charger characteristics are determined on the basis of car ownership and by assuming that EV categories market shares will be similar to the current ones for internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) published in government statistics. Charging opportunities at home and work locat...

  11. Prediction-error in the context of real social relationships modulates reward system activity

    Joshua ePoore; Jennifer ePfeifer; Elliot eBerkman; Tristen eInagaki; Benjamin Locke Welborn; Matthew eLieberman

    2012-01-01

    The human reward system is sensitive to both social (e.g., validation) and non-social rewards (e.g., money) and is likely integral for relationship development and reputation building. However, data is sparse on the question of whether implicit social reward processing meaningfully contributes to explicit social representations such as trust and attachment security in pre-existing relationships. This event-related fMRI experiment examined reward system prediction-error activity in response to...

  12. Drug Predictive Cues Activate Aversion-Sensitive Striatal Neurons That Encode Drug Seeking

    Wheeler, Daniel S.; Robble, Mykel A.; Hebron, Emily M.; Dupont, Matthew J.; Ebben, Amanda L.; Wheeler, Robert A

    2015-01-01

    Drug-associated cues have profound effects on an addict's emotional state and drug-seeking behavior. Although this influence must involve the motivational neural system that initiates and encodes the drug-seeking act, surprisingly little is known about the nature of such physiological events and their motivational consequences. Three experiments investigated the effect of a cocaine-predictive stimulus on dopamine signaling, neuronal activity, and reinstatement of cocaine seeking. In all exper...

  13. Macrophage activation marker soluble CD163 may predict disease progression in hepatocellular carcinoma

    Kazankov, Konstantin; Rode, Anthony; Simonsen, Kira;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Tumor associated macrophages are present in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and associated with a poor prognosis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the levels and dynamics of soluble (s)CD163, a specific macrophage activation marker, in patients with HCC. METHODS: In a......, baseline sCD163 appeared to predict a rapid HCC progression, as sCD163 increased during follow-up in HCC patients who showed progression....

  14. Prediction of vehicle activity for emissions estimation under oversaturated conditions along signalized arterials

    Skabardonis, Alexander; Geroliminis, Nikolaos; Christofa, Eleni

    2013-01-01

    The traditional methodology for estimating vehicle emissions based on vehicle miles traveled and average speed is not reliable because it does not consider the effects of congestion, control devices, and driving mode (cruise, acceleration, deceleration, and idle). We developed an analytical model to predict vehicle activity on signalized arterials with emphasis on oversaturated traffic conditions. The model depends only on loop detector data and signal settings as inputs and provides estimate...

  15. The influence of active region information on the prediction of solar flares: an empirical model using data mining

    M. Núñez

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Predicting the occurrence of solar flares is a challenge of great importance for many space weather scientists and users. We introduce a data mining approach, called Behavior Pattern Learning (BPL, for automatically discovering correlations between solar flares and active region data, in order to predict the former. The goal of BPL is to predict the interval of time to the next solar flare and provide a confidence value for the associated prediction. The discovered correlations are described in terms of easy-to-read rules. The results indicate that active region dynamics is essential for predicting solar flares.

  16. North-South differences in the Earth's high-latitude upper atmosphere dynamics: Influence of solar activity and seasonal variations

    Förster, Matthias; Cnossen, Ingrid

    2014-05-01

    Recent observations have shown that the upper thermospheric/ionospheric response to solar wind and IMF dependent drivers of the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (M-I-T) system can be very dissimilar in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. We present statistical studies of the high-latitude upper thermospheric neutral wind circulation patterns obtained from almost a decade of measurements with an accelerometer on board the CHAMP spacecraft. The influence of the solar activity and the dependence on seasonal variations is analysed with respect to average cross-polar wind velocities and high-latitude neutral wind vorticity values. Using the Coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere (CMIT) model, on the other hand, we simulated representative equinox as well as solstice intervals for low and high solar activity conditions. For the simulations, we used on the one hand side symmetric dipole and on the other realistic (IGRF) geomagnetic field configurations. The comparative survey of both the numerical simulation and the statistical observation results show some prominent asymmetries between the two hemispheres, which are caused by the different geographic-geomagnetic offsets and/or the different patterns of geomagnetic flux densities. The average cross-polar neutral wind velocities show a distinct seasonal variation with minimum values during the respective hemispheric winter solstice. The neutral wind vorticity values are generally larger in the Northern than the Southern Hemisphere, except for northern winter solstice conditions. The hemispheric differences become larger for higher solar activity and show a semidiurnal variation. In contrast, the spatial variance of the upper thermospheric neutral wind is usually considerably larger in the polar region of the Southern Hemisphere compared with the Northern, and the hemispheric difference shows a strong semidiurnal variation.

  17. Thrombin time and anti-IIa dabigatran's activity: hypothesis of thrombin time's predictive value.

    Le Guyader, Maïlys; Kaabar, Mohammed; Lemaire, Pierre; Pineau Vincent, Fabienne

    2015-01-01

    Dabigatran etexilate (Pradaxa®) is a new oral anticoagulant, competitive inhibitor, selective, fast, direct and reversible of thrombin. Dabigatran has an impact on a large panel of used coagulation tests. There is no relationship between thrombin time's lengthening and anti-IIa activity. This study defines thrombin time's predictive value, when its time is normal. The result of negative value is 97,6%. 255 patients were studied between January 2013 and July 2014. Thrombin time and anti-IIa activity were dosed for each patient. This study can be an assistant for therapeutic decision for laboratories without specialized test. PMID:26489812

  18. Creative elements: network-based predictions of active centres in proteins, cellular and social networks

    Csermely, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Active centres and hot spots of proteins have a paramount importance in enzyme action, protein complex formation and drug design. Recently a number of publications successfully applied the analysis of residue networks to predict active centres in proteins. Most real-world networks show a number of properties, such as small-worldness or scale-free degree distribution, which are rather general features of networks from molecules to the society. Based on extensive analogies I propose that the existing findings and methodology enable us to detect active centres in cells, social networks and ecosystems. Members of these active centres are creative elements of the respective networks, which may help them to survive unprecedented, novel challenges, and play a key role in the development, survival and evolvability of complex systems.

  19. Sources of variation and genetic profile of spontaneous, out-of-season ovulatory activity in the Chios sheep

    Kouttos Athanasios

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Organising the breeding plan of a seasonally breeding species, such as sheep, presents a challenge to farmers and the industry as a whole, since both economical and biological considerations need to be carefully balanced. Understanding the breeding activity of individual animals becomes a prerequisite for a successful breeding program. This study set out to investigate the sources of variation and the genetic profile of the spontaneous, out-of-season ovulatory activity of ewes of the Chios dairy sheep breed in Greece. The definition of the trait was based on blood progesterone levels, measured before exposing the ewes to rams, which marks the onset of the usual breeding season. Data were 707 records, taken over two consecutive years, of 435 ewes kept at the Agricultural Research Station of Chalkidiki in northern Greece. When all available pedigree was included, the total number of animals involved was 1068. On average, 29% of all ewes exhibited spontaneous, out-of-season ovulatory activity, with no substantial variation between the years. Significant sources of systematic variation were the ewe age and live weight, and the month of previous lambing. Older, heavier ewes, that had lambed early the previous autumn, exhibited more frequent activity. Heritability estimates were 0.216 (± 0.084 with a linear and 0.291 with a threshold model. The latter better accounts for the categorical nature of the trait. The linear model repeatability was 0.230 (± 0.095. The results obtained in this study support the notion that spontaneous out-of-season ovulatory activity can be considered in the development of a breeding plan for the Chios sheep breed.

  20. Seasonal Variation in Physical Activity among Preschool Children in a Northern Canadian City

    Carson, Valerie; Spence, John C.; Cutumisu, Nicoleta; Boule, Normand; Edwards, Joy

    2010-01-01

    Little research has examined seasonal differences in physical activity (PA) levels among children. Proxy reports of PA were completed by 1,715 parents on their children in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Total PA (TPA) minutes were calculated, and each participant was classified as active, somewhat active, or inactive. Logistic regression models were…

  1. Effect of variations in parameter values on the predicted radiological consequences of geologic disposal of high-level waste

    A preliminary assessment of the radiological consequences of geologic disposal of high level waste carried out at the National Radiological Protection Board identified several areas where further research is required before this disposal option can be fully evaluated. This paper summarizes an analysis of the sensitivity of the results of the preliminary assessment to the assumptions made and the values of the parameters used. The purpose of the analysis was to clarify research objectives rather than to derive the possible range of potential doses. Both the preliminary assessment and the sensitivity analysis deal only with disposal of vitrified reprocessing waste. The studies are essentially generic and not site or rock specific. However, where detailed assumptions are required, a repository in hard crystalline rock is considered. Only the consequences of groundwater contacting the waste and transporting radionuclides to the biosphere are dealt with in the sensitivity analysis since the preliminary assessment showed that this is the most likely release mechanism. The results summarized show that over the range of parameters considered, the geosphere transit times of almost all the radionuclides (99Tc and 129I are the only notable exceptions) are greater than the leach time. Peak doses are strongly dependent on groundwater velocity, pathlength and sorption constants, but are only marginally affected by the rate of release of radionuclides into groundwater. It can therefore be concluded that the main barrier to the return of activity to man's environment is that provided by slow migration through the geosphere while the leach resistance of the waste form is relatively unimportant

  2. The influence of active region information on the prediction of solar flares: an empirical model using data mining

    Núñez, M.; Fidalgo, R.; Baena, M.; R Morales

    2005-01-01

    Predicting the occurrence of solar flares is a challenge of great importance for many space weather scientists and users. We introduce a data mining approach, called Behavior Pattern Learning (BPL), for automatically discovering correlations between solar flares and active region data, in order to predict the former. The goal of BPL is to predict the interval of time to the next solar flare and provide a confidence value for the associated prediction. The discovered correlations are described...

  3. The influence of active region information on the prediction of solar flares: an empirical model using data mining

    Núñez, M.; Fidalgo, R.; Baena, M.; R Morales

    2005-01-01

    Predicting the occurrence of solar flares is a challenge of great importance for many space weather scientists and users. We introduce a data mining approach, called Behavior Pattern Learning (BPL), for automatically discovering correlations between solar flares and active region data, in order to predict the former. The goal of BPL is to predict the interval of time to the next solar flare and provide a confidence value for the associated prediction. The discovered correlat...

  4. The influence of active region information on the prediction of solar flares: an empirical model using data mining

    Núñez, M.; Fidalgo, R.; Baena, M.; Morales, R.

    2005-01-01

    International audience Predicting the occurrence of solar flares is a challenge of great importance for many space weather scientists and users. We introduce a data mining approach, called Behavior Pattern Learning (BPL), for automatically discovering correlations between solar flares and active region data, in order to predict the former. The goal of BPL is to predict the interval of time to the next solar flare and provide a confidence value for the associated prediction. The discovered ...

  5. Predictive value of QuantiFERON-TB Gold test for the risk of active tuberculosis

    Amalia I. Găvriluţ

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the predictive value of QuantiFERON-TB Gold (QFT-G test in screening for latenttuberculosis (TB progression to active TB in subjects with recent contact with active TB cases. Material and method: The study included72 subjects aged over 18 who had close contact with active TB cases in the last 3 months. Subjects have been evaluated clinically and radiographicallyevery six months after inclusion in the study, over a period of 2 years. Two immunological tests were used for estimation of latentTB: tuberculin skin testing and QFT-G test. Results: During follow-up (2 years, 7 subjects (10.1% were diagnosed with active TB. HepatitisB, type 2 diabetes, cancer, COPD, poor living conditions, positive tuberculine skin testing and QFT-G were associated with a high risk for onsetof active TB in univariate analysis (p<0.05. In multivariate analysis a positve QFT-G test showed a risk of developing active TB 2 yearsafter contact with patients with active disease, 8 times higher than a negative result (HR (hazard ratio, 8, CI95% 1.3% - 46.7%, p=0.02, whileHR given by the presence of diabetes was 5 (CI95% 1% - 23.8%, p=0.03. Conclusions: QFT-G test and the presence of type 2 diabetes wereindependent predictors for risk of active TB.

  6. Early language and executive skills predict variations in number and arithmetic skills in children at family-risk of dyslexia and typically developing controls

    Moll, Kristina; Snowling, Margaret J.; Göbel, Silke M.; Hulme, Charles

    2015-01-01

    Two important foundations for learning are language and executive skills. Data from a longitudinal study tracking the development of 93 children at family-risk of dyslexia and 76 controls was used to investigate the influence of these skills on the development of arithmetic. A two-group longitudinal path model assessed the relationships between language and executive skills at 3–4 years, verbal number skills (counting and number knowledge) and phonological processing skills at 4–5 years, and written arithmetic in primary school. The same cognitive processes accounted for variability in arithmetic skills in both groups. Early language and executive skills predicted variations in preschool verbal number skills, which in turn, predicted arithmetic skills in school. In contrast, phonological awareness was not a predictor of later arithmetic skills. These results suggest that verbal and executive processes provide the foundation for verbal number skills, which in turn influence the development of formal arithmetic skills. Problems in early language development may explain the comorbidity between reading and mathematics disorder. PMID:26412946

  7. A New Global Empirical Model of the Electron Temperature with the Inclusion of the Solar Activity Variations for IRI

    Truhlik, V.; Triskova, L.

    2012-01-01

    A data-base of electron temperature (T(sub e)) comprising of most of the available LEO satellite measurements in the altitude range from 350 to 2000 km has been used for the development of a new global empirical model of T(sub e) for the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). For the first time this will include variations with solar activity. Variations at five fixed altitude ranges centered at 350, 550, 850, 1400, and 2000 km and three seasons (summer, winter, and equinox) were represented by a system of associated Legendre polynomials (up to the 8th order) in terms of magnetic local time and the earlier introduced in vdip latitude. The solar activity variations of T(sub e) are represented by a correction term of the T(sub e) global pattern and it has been derived from the empirical latitudinal profiles of T(sub e) for day and night (Truhlik et al., 2009a). Comparisons of the new T(sub e) model with data and with the IRI 2007 Te model show that the new model agrees well with the data generally within standard deviation limits and that the model performs better than the current IRI T(sub e) model.

  8. Variations of circulating endothelial progenitor cells and transforming growth factor-beta-1 (TGF-β1) during thoracic radiotherapy are predictive for radiation pneumonitis

    The vascular endothelial cells are important targets of radiotherapy, which may be involved in the pathogenesis of radiation pneumonitis (RP). This study investigated the variations of circulating endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) and transforming growth factor-beta-1 (TGF-β1) during three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) in patients with non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and analyzed the correlation between these variations with the occurrence of RP. From November 2008 to November 2009, eighty-four consecutive patients receiving 3D-CRT for stage III disease were evaluated prospectively. Circulating EPCs and TGF-β1 levels were measured at baseline, every 2 weeks during, and at the end of treatment. RP was evaluated prospectively at 6 weeks after 3D-CRT. Thirty-eight patients (47.5%) experienced score 1 or more of RP. The baseline levels of EPCs and TGF-β1 were analyzed, no difference was found between patients with and without RP during and after 3D-CRT. By serial measurement of TGF-β1 and EPCs levels, we found that the mean levels of EPCs in the whole population remained stable during radiotherapy, but the mean levels of TGF-β1 increased slowly during radiotherapy. TGF-β1 and EPCs levels were all significantly higher at week 2, week 4 and week 6 in patients with RP than that in patients without RP, respectively. During the period of radiation treatment, TGF-β1 levels began to increase in the first 2 weeks and became significantly higher at week 6 (P < 0.01). EPCs levels also began to increase in the first 2 weeks and reached a peak at week 4. Using an ANOVA model for repeated-measures, we found significant associations between the levels of TGF-β1 and EPCs during the course of 3D-CRT and the risk of developing RP (P < 0.01). Most of the dosimetric factors showed a significant association with RP. Early variations of TGF-β1 and EPCs levels during 3D-CRT are significantly associated with the risk of RP. Variations of circulating TGF-β1

  9. Seasonal variation in daily activity patterns of free-ranging European ground squirrels (Spermophilus citellus).

    Everts, Lammina G; Strijkstra, Arjen M; Hut, Roelof A; Hoffmann, Ilse E; Millesi, Eva

    2004-01-01

    Daily aboveground activity of European ground squirrels (Spermophilus citellus) in their natural habitat was recorded with a visual scanning procedure during the active seasons of 1992 and 1993. Activity patterns were analyzed with respect to time of year and to the animal's reproductive state. Aboveground activity started on average 3.9 h (SD 0.6 h, n = 37 days) after civil twilight at dawn and ended on average 3.2 h (SD 0.9 h, n = 37 days) before civil twilight at dusk. Between onset and offset of activity, 54% was spent aboveground, of which 73% was spent foraging. Activity patterns were influenced by photoperiod, rainfall, and by reproductive state. During mating, reproductively active males started activity earlier than females and reproductively inactive males. For females, time spent foraging was high during lactation. The midpoint of daily activity was at 12:16 h (SD 0.37 h, n = 37 days). Activity patterns of European ground squirrels thus appear robustly positioned in the middle of the photoperiod. PMID:15129824

  10. Structure prediction and activity analysis of human heme oxygenase-1 and its mutant

    Zhen-Wei Xia; Wen-Pu Zhou; Wen-Jun Cui; Xue-Hong Zhang; Qing-Xiang Shen; Yun-Zhu Li; Shan-Chang Yu

    2004-01-01

    AIM: To predict wild human heme oxygenase-1 (whHO-1)and hHO-1 His25Ala mutant (△hHO-1) structures, to clone and express them and analyze their activities.METHODS: Swiss-PdbViewer and Antheprot 5.0 were used for the prediction of structure diversity and physicalchemical changes between wild and mutant hHO-1. hHO1 His25Ala mutant cDNA was constructed by site-directed mutagenesis in two plasmids of E. coli DH5α. Expression products were purified by ammonium sulphate precipitation and Q-Sepharose Fast Flow column chromatography, and their activities were measured.RESULTS: rHO-1 had the structure of a helical fold with the heme sandwiched between heme-heme oxygenase1 helices. Bond angle, dihedral angle and chemical bond in the active pocket changed after Ala25 was replaced by His25, but Ala25 was still contacting the surface and the electrostatic potential of the active pocket was negative. The mutated enzyme kept binding activity to heme. Two vectors pBHO-1 and pBHO-1(M) were constructed and expressed. Ammonium sulphate precipitation and column chromatography yielded 3.6-fold and 30-fold higher purities of whHO-1, respectively. The activity of △hHO-1 was reduced 91.21% after mutation compared with whHO-1.CONCLUSION: Proximal His25 ligand is crucial for normal hHO-1 catalytic activity. △hHO-1 is deactivated by mutation but keeps the same binding site as whHO-1. △hHO-1 might be a potential inhibitor of whHO-1 for preventing neonatal hyperbilirubinemia.

  11. Variation in activity of root extracellular phytase between genotypes of barley

    Asmar, Mohammad Farouq

    1997-01-01

    the genotypes performed differently with regard to the activity of the enzymes. The winter barley genotype, Marinka had the highest activity of root-associated extracellular phytase which differed significantly from Alexis and Senate, but not from Regatta. Alexis showed the lowest activity of root......Barley genotypes grown in nutrient solution under P nutrient stress and sterile conditions were compared in activity of root-associated and root-released extracellular phytase. The activity of root-associated phytase of all genotypes was about 10 times higher than that of root-released phytase and......-released extracellular phytase which differed significantly from those of Marinka and Regatta, but not from Senate. Generally, there was a significant correlation between the activity of root-associated and released extracellular phytase....

  12. Predictive Framework and Experimental Tests of the Kinetic Isotope Effect at Redox-Active Interfaces

    Kavner, A.; John, S.; Black, J. R.

    2013-12-01

    Electrochemical reactions provide a compelling framework to study kinetic isotope effects because redox-related processes are important for a wide variety of geological and environmental processes. In the laboratory, electrochemical reaction rates can be electronically controlled and measured in the laboratory using a potentiostat. This enables variation of redox reactions rates independent of changes in chemistry and, and the resulting isotope compositions of reactants and products can be separated and analyzed. In the past years, a series of experimental studies have demonstrated a large, light, and tunable kinetic isotope effect during electrodeposition of metal Fe, Zn, Li, Cu, and Mo from a variety of solutions (e.g. Black et al., 2009, 2010, 2011). A theoretical framework based on Marcus kinetic theory predicts a voltage-dependent kinetic isotope effect (Kavner et al., 2005, 2008), however while this framework was able to predict the tunable nature of the effect, it was not able to simultaneously predict absolute reaction rates and relative isotope rates. Here we present a more complete development of a statistical mechanical framework for simple interfacial redox reactions, which includes isotopic behavior. The framework is able to predict a kinetic isotope effect as a function of temperature and reaction rate, starting with three input parameters: a single reorganization energy which describes the overall kinetics of the electron transfer reaction, and the equilibrium reduced partition function ratios for heavy and light isotopes in the product and reactant phases. We show the framework, elucidate some of the predictions, and show direct comparisons against isotope fractionation data obtained during laboratory and natural environment redox processes. A. Kavner, A. Shahar, F. Bonet, J. Simon and E. Young (2005) Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 69(12), 2971-2979. A. Kavner, S. G. John, S. Sass, and E. A. Boyle (2008), Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, vol 72, pp. 1731

  13. Implicit theories about willpower predict the activation of a rest goal following self-control exertion.

    Job, Veronika; Bernecker, Katharina; Miketta, Stefanie; Friese, Malte

    2015-10-01

    Past research indicates that peoples' implicit theories about the nature of willpower moderate the ego-depletion effect. Only people who believe or were led to believe that willpower is a limited resource (limited-resource theory) showed lower self-control performance after an initial demanding task. As of yet, the underlying processes explaining this moderating effect by theories about willpower remain unknown. Here, we propose that the exertion of self-control activates the goal to preserve and replenish mental resources (rest goal) in people with a limited-resource theory. Five studies tested this hypothesis. In Study 1, individual differences in implicit theories about willpower predicted increased accessibility of a rest goal after self-control exertion. Furthermore, measured (Study 2) and manipulated (Study 3) willpower theories predicted an increased preference for rest-conducive objects. Finally, Studies 4 and 5 provide evidence that theories about willpower predict actual resting behavior: In Study 4, participants who held a limited-resource theory took a longer break following self-control exertion than participants with a nonlimited-resource theory. Longer resting time predicted decreased rest goal accessibility afterward. In Study 5, participants with an induced limited-resource theory sat longer on chairs in an ostensible product-testing task when they had engaged in a task requiring self-control beforehand. This research provides consistent support for a motivational shift toward rest after self-control exertion in people holding a limited-resource theory about willpower. PMID:26075793

  14. Predicting daily photosynthetically active radiation from global solar radiation in the Contiguous United States

    Highlights: • Relationships between the daily PAR and Rs are explored across the United States. • Ten existing models for the PAR fraction estimation are analyzed by 3 years data. • Validation of all obtained models by four statistical parameters. • Introduce the best model of the daily PAR prediction for seven SURFRAD sites. - Abstract: An investigation on the daily photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) with the global solar radiation (Rs) is conducted at 7 surface radiation budget monitoring stations across the Mainland United States by exploiting a 3 years (2009–2011) data achieve. The clearness index, the diffuse fraction and the skylight brightness along with the dew point temperature and the cosine of solar zenith angle are used to generate empirical relationships for predicting PAR from Rs. Records of 2009 and 2010 are employed for model establishment, while records of 2011 are used for validation. The accuracy of the models’ predictions is evaluated by four statistics parameters, including the coefficient of determination, the root mean square error, the mean percentage error and the relative standard deviation. Results show that the polynomial model taking the clearness index as main parameter plus the cosine of solar zenith angle has the best performance out of ten proposed models. And the clearness index is capable to be the indicator for PAR prediction, as a substitute of the combination of the diffuse fraction and the skylight brightness

  15. Predicting Flash Point of Organosilicon Compounds Using Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship Approach

    Chen-Peng Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The flash point (FP of a compound is the primary property used in the assessment of fire hazards for flammable liquids and is amongst the crucial information that people handling flammable liquids must possess as far as industrial safety is concerned. In this work, the FPs of 236 organosilicon compounds were collected and used to construct a quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR model for predicting their FPs. The CODESSA PRO software was adopted to calculate the required molecular descriptors, and 350 molecular descriptors were developed for each compound. A modified stepwise regression algorithm was applied to choose descriptors that were highly correlated with the FP of organosilicon compounds. The proposed model was a linear regression model consisting of six descriptors. This 6-descriptor model gave an R2 value of 0.9174, QLOO2 value of 0.9106, and Q2 value of 0.8989. The average fitting error and the average predictive error were found to be of 10.34 K and 11.22 K, respectively, and the average fitting error in percentage and the average predictive error in percentage were found to be of 3.30 and 3.60%, respectively. Compared with the known reproducibility of FP measurement using standard test method, these predicted results were of a satisfactory precision.

  16. Predicting risk-taking behavior from prefrontal resting-state activity and personality.

    Bettina Studer

    Full Text Available Risk-taking is subject to considerable individual differences. In the current study, we tested whether resting-state activity in the prefrontal cortex and trait sensitivity to reward and punishment can help predict risk-taking behavior. Prefrontal activity at rest was assessed in seventy healthy volunteers using electroencephalography, and compared to their choice behavior on an economic risk-taking task. The Behavioral Inhibition System/Behavioral Activation System scale was used to measure participants' trait sensitivity to reward and punishment. Our results confirmed both prefrontal resting-state activity and personality traits as sources of individual differences in risk-taking behavior. Right-left asymmetry in prefrontal activity and scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale, reflecting trait sensitivity to punishment, were correlated with the level of risk-taking on the task. We further discovered that scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale modulated the relationship between asymmetry in prefrontal resting-state activity and risk-taking. The results of this study demonstrate that heterogeneity in risk-taking behavior can be traced back to differences in the basic physiology of decision-makers' brains, and suggest that baseline prefrontal activity and personality traits might interplay in guiding risk-taking behavior.

  17. Visual cortex activity predicts subjective experience after reading books with colored letters.

    Colizoli, Olympia; Murre, Jaap M J; Scholte, H Steven; van Es, Daniel M; Knapen, Tomas; Rouw, Romke

    2016-07-29

    One of the most astonishing properties of synesthesia is that the evoked concurrent experiences are perceptual. Is it possible to acquire similar effects after learning cross-modal associations that resemble synesthetic mappings? In this study, we examine whether brain activation in early visual areas can be directly related to letter-color associations acquired by training. Non-synesthetes read specially prepared books with colored letters for several weeks and were scanned using functional magnetic resonance imaging. If the acquired letter-color associations were visual in nature, then brain activation in visual cortex while viewing the trained black letters (compared to untrained black letters) should predict the strength of the associations, the quality of the color experience, or the vividness of visual mental imagery. Results showed that training-related activation of area V4 was correlated with differences in reported subjective color experience. Trainees who were classified as having stronger 'associator' types of color experiences also had more negative activation for trained compared to untrained achromatic letters in area V4. In contrast, the strength of the acquired associations (measured as the Stroop effect) was not reliably reflected in visual cortex activity. The reported vividness of visual mental imagery was related to veridical color activation in early visual cortex, but not to the acquired color associations. We show for the first time that subjective experience related to a synesthesia-training paradigm was reflected in visual brain activation. PMID:26162617

  18. New mechanistically based model for predicting reduction of biosolids waste by ozonation of return activated sludge

    Isazadeh, Siavash; Feng, Min; Urbina Rivas, Luis Enrique; Frigon, Dominic, E-mail: dominic.frigon@mcgill.ca

    2014-04-01

    Highlights: • Biomass inactivation followed an exponential decay with increasing ozone doses. • From pure cultures, inactivation did not result in significant COD solubilization. • Ozone dose inactivation thresholds resulted from floc structure modifications. • Modeling description of biomass inactivation during RAS-ozonation was improved. • Model best describing inactivation resulted in best performance predictions. - Abstract: Two pilot-scale activated sludge reactors were operated for 98 days to provide the necessary data to develop and validate a new mathematical model predicting the reduction of biosolids production by ozonation of the return activated sludge (RAS). Three ozone doses were tested during the study. In addition to the pilot-scale study, laboratory-scale experiments were conducted with mixed liquor suspended solids and with pure cultures to parameterize the biomass inactivation process during exposure to ozone. The experiments revealed that biomass inactivation occurred even at the lowest doses, but that it was not associated with extensive COD solubilization. For validation, the model was used to simulate the temporal dynamics of the pilot-scale operational data. Increasing the description accuracy of the inactivation process improved the precision of the model in predicting the operational data.

  19. A general model for predicting coolant activity behaviour for fuel-failure monitoring analysis

    El-Jaby, A., E-mail: Ali.El-Jaby@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Lewis, B.J.; Thompson, W.T. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada); Iglesias, F.C. [Candesco Corp., Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ip, M. [Bruce Power, Toronto, (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    A mathematical treatment has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from operating defective nuclear fuel elements. The fission product activity in both the fuel-to-sheath gap and primary heat transport system as a function of time can be predicted during all reactor operating conditions, including: startup, steady-state, shutdown, and bundle-shifting manoeuvres. In addition, an improved ability to predict the coolant activity of the {sup 135}Xe isotope in commercial reactors is discussed. A method is also proposed to estimate both the burnup and the amount of tramp uranium deposits in-core. The model has been implemented as a stand-alone code written in the C++ computer programming language using a finite-difference variable-mesh numerical scheme for the mass transport equations in the UO{sub 2} fuel grain. The model has been validated against in-reactor experiments conducted with defective fuel elements containing natural and artificial failures at the Chalk River Laboratories. Lastly, the model has been benchmarked against a defective fuel occurrence in a commercial reactor. (author)

  20. Structure-Based Activity Prediction for an Enzyme of Unknown Function

    Hermann,J.; Marti-Arbona, R.; Fedorov, A.; Fedorov, E.; Almo, S.; Shoichet, B.; Raushel, F.

    2007-01-01

    With many genomes sequenced, a pressing challenge in biology is predicting the function of the proteins that the genes encode. When proteins are unrelated to others of known activity, bioinformatics inference for function becomes problematic. It would thus be useful to interrogate protein structures for function directly. Here, we predict the function of an enzyme of unknown activity, Tm0936 from Thermotoga maritima, by docking high-energy intermediate forms of thousands of candidate metabolites. The docking hit list was dominated by adenine analogues, which appeared to undergo C6-deamination. Four of these, including 5-methylthioadenosine and S-adenosylhomocysteine (SAH), were tested as substrates, and three had substantial catalytic rate constants (10{sup 5} M{sup -1} s{sup -1}). The X-ray crystal structure of the complex between Tm0936 and the product resulting from the deamination of SAH, S-inosylhomocysteine, was determined, and it corresponded closely to the predicted structure. The deaminated products can be further metabolized by T. maritima in a previously uncharacterized SAH degradation pathway. Structure-based docking with high-energy forms of potential substrates may be a useful tool to annotate enzymes for function.

  1. New mechanistically based model for predicting reduction of biosolids waste by ozonation of return activated sludge

    Highlights: • Biomass inactivation followed an exponential decay with increasing ozone doses. • From pure cultures, inactivation did not result in significant COD solubilization. • Ozone dose inactivation thresholds resulted from floc structure modifications. • Modeling description of biomass inactivation during RAS-ozonation was improved. • Model best describing inactivation resulted in best performance predictions. - Abstract: Two pilot-scale activated sludge reactors were operated for 98 days to provide the necessary data to develop and validate a new mathematical model predicting the reduction of biosolids production by ozonation of the return activated sludge (RAS). Three ozone doses were tested during the study. In addition to the pilot-scale study, laboratory-scale experiments were conducted with mixed liquor suspended solids and with pure cultures to parameterize the biomass inactivation process during exposure to ozone. The experiments revealed that biomass inactivation occurred even at the lowest doses, but that it was not associated with extensive COD solubilization. For validation, the model was used to simulate the temporal dynamics of the pilot-scale operational data. Increasing the description accuracy of the inactivation process improved the precision of the model in predicting the operational data

  2. A general model for predicting coolant activity behaviour for fuel-failure monitoring analysis

    A mathematical treatment has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from operating defective nuclear fuel elements. The fission product activity in both the fuel-to-sheath gap and primary heat transport system as a function of time can be predicted during all reactor operating conditions, including: startup, steady-state, shutdown, and bundle-shifting manoeuvres. In addition, an improved ability to predict the coolant activity of the 135Xe isotope in commercial reactors is discussed. A method is also proposed to estimate both the burnup and the amount of tramp uranium deposits in-core. The model has been implemented as a stand-alone code written in the C++ computer programming language using a finite-difference variable-mesh numerical scheme for the mass transport equations in the UO2 fuel grain. The model has been validated against in-reactor experiments conducted with defective fuel elements containing natural and artificial failures at the Chalk River Laboratories. Lastly, the model has been benchmarked against a defective fuel occurrence in a commercial reactor. (author)

  3. Sources of variation in habitual physical activity of children and adolescents

    Kristensen, Peter Lund; Korsholm, L; Møller, N C; Wedderkopp, N; Andersen, Lars Bo; Froberg, K

    2007-01-01

    inverse association was observed in the 14-16-year-olds. However, a post hoc analysis provided strong evidence that this latter result was biased by the accelerometers inability to pick up bicycling activities. Finally, boys were more physically active compared with girls, and maturity state was unrelated...

  4. Antecedent occipital alpha band activity predicts the impact of oculomotor events in perceptual switching

    Hironori eNakatani

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Oculomotor events such as blinks and saccades transiently interrupt the visual input and, even though this mostly goes undetected, these brief interruptions could still influence the percept. In particular, both blinking and saccades facilitate switching in ambiguous figures such as the Necker cube. To investigate the neural state antecedent to these oculomotor events during the perception of an ambiguous figure, we measured the human scalp electroencephalogram (EEG. When blinking led to perceptual switching, antecedent occipital alpha band activity exhibited a transient increase in amplitude. When a saccade led to switching, a series of transient increases and decreases in amplitude was observed in the antecedent occipital alpha band activity. Our results suggest that the state of occipital alpha band activity predicts the impact of oculomotor events on the percept.

  5. Seasonal variations of the phenolic constituents in bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) leaves, stems and fruits, and their antioxidant activity.

    Bujor, Oana-Crina; Le Bourvellec, Carine; Volf, Irina; Popa, Valentin I; Dufour, Claire

    2016-12-15

    The seasonal variations of the content and diversity of phenolic compounds, as well as the antioxidant activity of leaves, stems and fruits of bilberry collected in May, July and September, were evaluated for two consecutive years. UPLC/MS(n) analyses showed the predominance of anthocyanins in fruits, caffeic acid derivatives in leaves whereas flavanol oligomers represented more than half of the phenolic compounds in stems. Thioacidolysis revealed degrees of polymerization between 2 and 4 and (-)-epicatechin as the main flavanol unit. The sum of the phenolic compounds by UPLC was highly correlated with the total polyphenol content and the antioxidant activity in the DPPH test for all the extracts except for May leaves. The latter were relatively rich in p-coumaric acid derivatives. Seasonal effects were more marked for leaves, which exhibited higher antioxidant activities and phenolic contents in July and September when these parameters were at their highest in July for stems. PMID:27451155

  6. Neural activation during processing of aversive faces predicts treatment outcome in alcoholism.

    Charlet, Katrin; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Richter, Anne; Naundorf, Karina; Dornhof, Lina; Weinfurtner, Christopher E J; König, Friederike; Walaszek, Bernadeta; Schubert, Florian; Müller, Christian A; Gutwinski, Stefan; Seissinger, Annette; Schmitz, Lioba; Walter, Henrik; Beck, Anne; Gallinat, Jürgen; Kiefer, Falk; Heinz, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Neuropsychological studies reported decoding deficits of emotional facial expressions in alcohol-dependent patients, and imaging studies revealed reduced prefrontal and limbic activation during emotional face processing. However, it remains unclear whether this reduced neural activation is mediated by alcohol-associated volume reductions and whether it interacts with treatment outcome. We combined analyses of neural activation during an aversive face-cue-comparison task and local gray matter volumes (GM) using Biological Parametric Mapping in 33 detoxified alcohol-dependent patients and 33 matched healthy controls. Alcoholics displayed reduced activation toward aversive faces-neutral shapes in bilateral fusiform gyrus [FG; Brodmann areas (BA) 18/19], right middle frontal gyrus (BA46/47), right inferior parietal gyrus (BA7) and left cerebellum compared with controls, which were explained by GM differences (except for cerebellum). Enhanced functional activation in patients versus controls was found in left rostral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and medial frontal gyrus (BA10/11), even after GM reduction control. Increased ACC activation correlated significantly with less (previous) lifetime alcohol intake [Lifetime Drinking History (LDH)], longer abstinence and less subsequent binge drinking in patients. High LDH appear to impair treatment outcome via its neurotoxicity on ACC integrity. Thus, high activation of the rostral ACC elicited by affective faces appears to be a resilience factor predicting better treatment outcome. Although no group differences were found, increased FG activation correlated with patients' higher LDH. Because high LDH correlated with worse task performance for facial stimuli in patients, elevated activation in the fusiform 'face' area may reflect inefficient compensatory activation. Therapeutic interventions (e.g. emotion evaluation training) may enable patients to cope with social stress and to decrease relapses after detoxification. PMID

  7. Reading a suspenseful literary text activates brain areas related to social cognition and predictive inference.

    Moritz Lehne

    Full Text Available Stories can elicit powerful emotions. A key emotional response to narrative plots (e.g., novels, movies, etc. is suspense. Suspense appears to build on basic aspects of human cognition such as processes of expectation, anticipation, and prediction. However, the neural processes underlying emotional experiences of suspense have not been previously investigated. We acquired functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data while participants read a suspenseful literary text (E.T.A. Hoffmann's "The Sandman" subdivided into short text passages. Individual ratings of experienced suspense obtained after each text passage were found to be related to activation in the medial frontal cortex, bilateral frontal regions (along the inferior frontal sulcus, lateral premotor cortex, as well as posterior temporal and temporo-parietal areas. The results indicate that the emotional experience of suspense depends on brain areas associated with social cognition and predictive inference.

  8. Prediction of near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active fault

    Wang Haiyun; Xie Lili; Tao Xiaxin; Li Jie

    2006-01-01

    A method to predict near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active faults is proposed. First,macro-source parameters characterizing the entire source area, i.e., global source parameters, including fault length, fault width,rupture area, average slip on the fault plane, etc., are estimated by seismogeology survey, seismicity and seismic scaling laws.Second, slip distributions characterizing heterogeneity or roughness on the fault plane, i.e., local source parameters, are reproduced/evaluated by the hybrid slip model. Finally, the finite fault source model, developed from both the global and local source parameters, is combined with the stochastically synthetic technique of ground motion using the dynamic corner frequency based on seismology. The proposed method is applied to simulate the acceleration time histories on three base-rock stations during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Comparisons between the predicted and recorded acceleration time histories show that the method is feasible and practicable.

  9. Reading a suspenseful literary text activates brain areas related to social cognition and predictive inference.

    Lehne, Moritz; Engel, Philipp; Rohrmeier, Martin; Menninghaus, Winfried; Jacobs, Arthur M; Koelsch, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Stories can elicit powerful emotions. A key emotional response to narrative plots (e.g., novels, movies, etc.) is suspense. Suspense appears to build on basic aspects of human cognition such as processes of expectation, anticipation, and prediction. However, the neural processes underlying emotional experiences of suspense have not been previously investigated. We acquired functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data while participants read a suspenseful literary text (E.T.A. Hoffmann's "The Sandman") subdivided into short text passages. Individual ratings of experienced suspense obtained after each text passage were found to be related to activation in the medial frontal cortex, bilateral frontal regions (along the inferior frontal sulcus), lateral premotor cortex, as well as posterior temporal and temporo-parietal areas. The results indicate that the emotional experience of suspense depends on brain areas associated with social cognition and predictive inference. PMID:25946306

  10. Default Mode Network Activity Predicts Early Memory Decline in Healthy Young Adults Aged 18-31.

    Nelson, Steven M; Savalia, Neil K; Fishell, Andrew K; Gilmore, Adrian W; Zou, Fan; Balota, David A; McDermott, Kathleen B

    2016-08-01

    Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) research conducted in healthy young adults is typically done with the assumption that this sample is largely homogeneous. However, studies from cognitive psychology suggest that long-term memory and attentional control begin to diminish in the third decade of life. Here, 100 participants between the ages of 18 and 31 learned Lithuanian translations of English words in an individual differences study using fMRI. Long-term memory ability was operationalized for each participant by deriving a memory score from 3 convergent measures. Age of participant predicted memory score in this cohort. In addition, degree of deactivation during initial encoding in a set of regions occurring largely in the default mode network (DMN) predicted both age and memory score. The current study demonstrates that early memory decline may partially be accounted for by failure to modulate activity in the DMN. PMID:26209847

  11. Electromyographic Patterns during Golf Swing: Activation Sequence Profiling and Prediction of Shot Effectiveness.

    Verikas, Antanas; Vaiciukynas, Evaldas; Gelzinis, Adas; Parker, James; Olsson, M Charlotte

    2016-01-01

    This study analyzes muscle activity, recorded in an eight-channel electromyographic (EMG) signal stream, during the golf swing using a 7-iron club and exploits information extracted from EMG dynamics to predict the success of the resulting shot. Muscles of the arm and shoulder on both the left and right sides, namely flexor carpi radialis, extensor digitorum communis, rhomboideus and trapezius, are considered for 15 golf players (∼5 shots each). The method using Gaussian filtering is outlined for EMG onset time estimation in each channel and activation sequence profiling. Shots of each player revealed a persistent pattern of muscle activation. Profiles were plotted and insights with respect to player effectiveness were provided. Inspection of EMG dynamics revealed a pair of highest peaks in each channel as the hallmark of golf swing, and a custom application of peak detection for automatic extraction of swing segment was introduced. Various EMG features, encompassing 22 feature sets, were constructed. Feature sets were used individually and also in decision-level fusion for the prediction of shot effectiveness. The prediction of the target attribute, such as club head speed or ball carry distance, was investigated using random forest as the learner in detection and regression tasks. Detection evaluates the personal effectiveness of a shot with respect to the player-specific average, whereas regression estimates the value of target attribute, using EMG features as predictors. Fusion after decision optimization provided the best results: the equal error rate in detection was 24.3% for the speed and 31.7% for the distance; the mean absolute percentage error in regression was 3.2% for the speed and 6.4% for the distance. Proposed EMG feature sets were found to be useful, especially when used in combination. Rankings of feature sets indicated statistics for muscle activity in both the left and right body sides, correlation-based analysis of EMG dynamics and features

  12. Electromyographic Patterns during Golf Swing: Activation Sequence Profiling and Prediction of Shot Effectiveness

    Antanas Verikas

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes muscle activity, recorded in an eight-channel electromyographic (EMG signal stream, during the golf swing using a 7-iron club and exploits information extracted from EMG dynamics to predict the success of the resulting shot. Muscles of the arm and shoulder on both the left and right sides, namely flexor carpi radialis, extensor digitorum communis, rhomboideus and trapezius, are considered for 15 golf players (∼5 shots each. The method using Gaussian filtering is outlined for EMG onset time estimation in each channel and activation sequence profiling. Shots of each player revealed a persistent pattern of muscle activation. Profiles were plotted and insights with respect to player effectiveness were provided. Inspection of EMG dynamics revealed a pair of highest peaks in each channel as the hallmark of golf swing, and a custom application of peak detection for automatic extraction of swing segment was introduced. Various EMG features, encompassing 22 feature sets, were constructed. Feature sets were used individually and also in decision-level fusion for the prediction of shot effectiveness. The prediction of the target attribute, such as club head speed or ball carry distance, was investigated using random forest as the learner in detection and regression tasks. Detection evaluates the personal effectiveness of a shot with respect to the player-specific average, whereas regression estimates the value of target attribute, using EMG features as predictors. Fusion after decision optimization provided the best results: the equal error rate in detection was 24.3% for the speed and 31.7% for the distance; the mean absolute percentage error in regression was 3.2% for the speed and 6.4% for the distance. Proposed EMG feature sets were found to be useful, especially when used in combination. Rankings of feature sets indicated statistics for muscle activity in both the left and right body sides, correlation-based analysis of EMG

  13. Seasonal and annual variation in activity in wild male meadow voles (microtus pennsylvanicus)

    Project ZEUS was designed to characterize the effects of long-term gamma irradiation on free-ranging meadow voles, and to determine the lowest level of radiation at which biological effects are discernible in the population. Behavioural tests are considered important since recent testing has shown that behavioural effects occur at lower levels of a given toxicant than do pathological ones, and radiation effects may be similar. Overnight activity of wild male voles was investigated to see whether sufficient variability exists in this activity to suggest its retention as a routine test of these irradiated animals. Variables determined included number of activity periods, total amount of activity, and statistical measures derived from these. Results from nearly 2500 activity tests recorded during a seven-year period indicated the annual pattern of activity is more closely associated with the photo-period than to reproductive maturity. There was little variability in activity among years, limiting the usefulness of this test in the context of Project ZEUS, and further suggesting behaviour may have little relationship to the population density fluctuations occurring in meadow voles. Consequently, the recording of this behaviour has been terminated in favour of emphasizing aggression and open-field tests as the behavioural component of the Project ZEUS. (auth)

  14. Temporal variations of 7Be and 210Pb activity in aerosols at Xiamen, China

    Huang, Dekun

    2016-04-01

    The radionuclides serve as powerful tracers to identify and quantify several atmospheric processes, such as source, transport and mixing of air masses, air masses exchanging between various atmospheric layers, residence times of atmospheric gasses and pollutants. 7Be and 210Pb activities in aerosols were measurement from October, 2013 to September, 2015 at Xiamen (24°26'7.44″N, 118°5'31.30″N) in South China. The activity of 7Be and 210Pb in aerosols from 2013 to 2015 in Xiamen ranged from 0.26 to 9.05 (mean:4.15) mBq m-3 and from 0.14 to 2.64 (mean:1.05) mBq m-3, respectively. The mean activity of 7Be was comparable with the activities of other places in the same latitude, while the mean activity of 210Pb was lower than the activity of the locations at high altitudes. The possible reason is that Xiamen is a coastal city located on southwest Pacific. The activities of 7Be and 210Pb had a commonly low value in summer (July-September) and a high value in autumn (October-December), it may be controlled by the rainfall. There is significant relationship between the monthly 210Pb activities and the concentration of PM 2.5 and PM 10. In contrast, monthly 7Be activities only show significant correlation with the concentration of PM 10, which implies that 7Be and 210Pb can be used to trace the different sources of the aerosols. And the dry 7Be depositional fluxes increased with latitude along the coast of China (R2=0.92, n=8).

  15. Seasonal variation in the temperature sensitivity of proteolytic enzyme activity in temperate forest soils

    Brzostek, Edward R.; Finzi, Adrien C.

    2012-03-01

    Increasing soil temperature has the potential to alter the activity of the extracellular enzymes that mobilize nitrogen (N) from soil organic matter (SOM) and ultimately the availability of N for primary production. Proteolytic enzymes depolymerize N from proteinaceous components of SOM into amino acids, and their activity is a principal driver of the within-system cycle of soil N. The objectives of this study were to investigate whether the soils of temperate forest tree species differ in the temperature sensitivity of proteolytic enzyme activity over the growing season and the role of substrate limitation in regulating temperature sensitivity. Across species and sampling dates, proteolytic enzyme activity had relatively low sensitivity to temperature with a mean activation energy (Ea) of 33.5 kJ mol-1. Ea declined in white ash, American beech, and eastern hemlock soils across the growing season as soils warmed. By contrast, Eain sugar maple soil increased across the growing season. We used these data to develop a species-specific empirical model of proteolytic enzyme activity for the 2009 calendar year and studied the interactive effects of soil temperature (ambient or +5°C) and substrate limitation (ambient or elevated protein) on enzyme activity. Declines in substrate limitation had a larger single-factor effect on proteolytic enzyme activity than temperature, particularly in the spring. There was, however, a large synergistic effect of increasing temperature and substrate supply on proteolytic enzyme activity. Our results suggest limited increases in N availability with climate warming unless there is a parallel increase in the availability of protein substrates.

  16. Active Mirror Predictive and Requirements Verification Software (AMP-ReVS)

    Basinger, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    This software is designed to predict large active mirror performance at various stages in the fabrication lifecycle of the mirror. It was developed for 1-meter class powered mirrors for astronomical purposes, but is extensible to other geometries. The package accepts finite element model (FEM) inputs and laboratory measured data for large optical-quality mirrors with active figure control. It computes phenomenological contributions to the surface figure error using several built-in optimization techniques. These phenomena include stresses induced in the mirror by the manufacturing process and the support structure, the test procedure, high spatial frequency errors introduced by the polishing process, and other process-dependent deleterious effects due to light-weighting of the mirror. Then, depending on the maturity of the mirror, it either predicts the best surface figure error that the mirror will attain, or it verifies that the requirements for the error sources have been met once the best surface figure error has been measured. The unique feature of this software is that it ties together physical phenomenology with wavefront sensing and control techniques and various optimization methods including convex optimization, Kalman filtering, and quadratic programming to both generate predictive models and to do requirements verification. This software combines three distinct disciplines: wavefront control, predictive models based on FEM, and requirements verification using measured data in a robust, reusable code that is applicable to any large optics for ground and space telescopes. The software also includes state-of-the-art wavefront control algorithms that allow closed-loop performance to be computed. It allows for quantitative trade studies to be performed for optical systems engineering, including computing the best surface figure error under various testing and operating conditions. After the mirror manufacturing process and testing have been completed, the

  17. An Assessment of Variation in Active Ingredients of Ampucare from Different Zones of India

    Naveen Pathak

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The present study was designed to assess the variation in curcumin content of Curcuma longa rhizome and total polyphenols in Azadirachta indica bark samples procured from different zones of India. Physico-chemical tests such as total ash, acid insoluble ash, alcohol soluble extractive, water soluble extractive, volatile oil content etc. were also determined. A slight variation was seen in the bark samples of Azadirachta indica. Total ash ranged from 4.25±0.15 (East zone to 5.57±0.20 (Central zone whereas acid insoluble ash ranged from 0.80±0.07 (East zone to 1.52±0.06 (Central zone. Alcohol soluble extractive value of East zone sample was found to be more than 4 times higher 16.95±0.80 than that of central zone 3.85±0.12, where lowest value was recorded. Water soluble extractive value was also found to be highest in East zone sample 17.80±1.10 which was 2 times more than that of Central zone sample 8.45±0.15. This variation may be due to variation in climatic conditions, soil type, pollution stress etc. All the results were within the limits as given in The Ayurvedic Pharmacopoeia of India. Total Polyphenols ranged from 190.0 mgGAE/g of dry weight (Central zone to 510.0 mgGAE/g of dry weight (East zone. All the samples were found to be rich in total polyphenols. In Curcuma longa samples, Total ash ranged from 3.10±0.20 (South zone to 4.80±0.25 (North zone whereas acid insoluble ash ranged from 0.55±0.04 (South zone to 1.24±0.06 (North zone. Alcohol soluble extractive value was found to be highest in South zone sample 14.80±0.30 which was found to be more than 3 times higher than that of central zone 4.28±0.19 where lowest value was recorded. Water soluble extractive value was also found to be highest in West zone sample 12.55±0.69 and lowest in Central zone sample 8.90±0.37. Volatile oil ranged from 3.50±0.21 North zone sample to 5.50±0.20 South zone sample, where highest volatile oil was recovered. All the results were within

  18. Seasonal prediction of lightning activity in North Western Venezuela: Large-scale versus local drivers

    Muñoz, Á. G.; Díaz-Lobatón, J.; Chourio, X.; Stock, M. J.

    2016-05-01

    The Lake Maracaibo Basin in North Western Venezuela has the highest annual lightning rate of any place in the world (~ 200 fl km- 2 yr- 1), whose electrical discharges occasionally impact human and animal lives (e.g., cattle) and frequently affect economic activities like oil and natural gas exploitation. Lightning activity is so common in this region that it has a proper name: Catatumbo Lightning (plural). Although short-term lightning forecasts are now common in different parts of the world, to the best of the authors' knowledge, seasonal prediction of lightning activity is still non-existent. This research discusses the relative role of both large-scale and local climate drivers as modulators of lightning activity in the region, and presents a formal predictability study at seasonal scale. Analysis of the Catatumbo Lightning Regional Mode, defined in terms of the second Empirical Orthogonal Function of monthly Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS-TRMM) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite data for North Western South America, permits the identification of potential predictors at seasonal scale via a Canonical Correlation Analysis. Lightning activity in North Western Venezuela responds to well defined sea-surface temperature patterns (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Mode) and changes in the low-level meridional wind field that are associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone migrations, the Caribbean Low Level Jet and tropical cyclone activity, but it is also linked to local drivers like convection triggered by the topographic configuration and the effect of the Maracaibo Basin Nocturnal Low Level Jet. The analysis indicates that at seasonal scale the relative contribution of the large-scale drivers is more important than the local (basin-wide) ones, due to the synoptic control imposed by the former. Furthermore, meridional CAPE transport at 925 mb is identified as the best potential predictor for lightning activity in the Lake

  19. Thyroid hormone stimulation in vitro of red blood cell Ca2+-ATPase activity: interspecies variation.

    Davis, F B; Kite, J H; Davis, P J; Blas, S D

    1982-01-01

    In vitro susceptibility to thyroid hormone stimulation of membrane-associated Ca2+-ATPase activity has been examined in red blood cells from rat, rabbit, dog, monkey, and man. Monkey and human red cell Ca2+-ATPase activities responded comparably to 10(-10)M T4 or T3. Basal and thyroid hormone-stimulated Ca2+-ATPase activity in rabbit erythrocytes was four-fold higher than in primate red cells. Rat and dog red cell Ca2+-ATPase did not respond to iodothyronines in vitro. PMID:6459228

  20. Influence of monsoon over the warm pool on interannual variation on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

    Chen, Guanghua; Huang, Ronghui

    2008-03-01

    The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the thermal state over the warm pool (WP) is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years. The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.

  1. Variation in daily flight activity and foraging patterns in colonies of uruçu - Melipona scutellaris Latreille (Apidae, Meliponini

    Leonardo Monteiro Pierrot

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The flight activities of five colonies of Melipona (Michmelia scutellaris Latreille, 1811 kept among mixed fruit crop plantations in within fragments of Atlantic Rainforest in Pernambuco, NE-Brazil was examined. The daily deployment of foragers to collect pollen, nectar, resin and mud was observed. The colonies performed between 2,640 and 14,250 flights per day. Variations in the number of total daily flights were similar between colonies on all observation days. Proportional allocation of foragers to the different resources also among colonies showed similar variation. More than 90% of the pollen collection flights were made early in the morning. Nectar was collected in similar proportional frequencies with a reduction in activity at noon. On a single day, was observed atypical intense pollen foraging during the afternoon by all colonies. This indicates a high plasticity in foraging behaviour and efficient recruitment to resources which are presented by mass flowering trees with synchronised big bang or multiple bang flowering. Resource availability of the surrounding vegetation, therefore, seems to be the major factor in defining the forager activities on a given day.

  2. Activity Related Variations of High-Degree p-Mode Amplitude, Width and Energy in Solar Active Regions

    Maurya, R A; Chae, J

    2013-01-01

    We study the properties of high degree p-mode oscillations in flaring and dormant ARs and compare them with those in corresponding quiet regions (QRs) to find the association of mode parameters with magnetic and flare related activities. Our analysis of several flaring and dormant ARs, showed strong association of mode amplitude, width and energy with magnetic and flare activities although their changes are combined effects of foreshortening, filling factor, magnetic activity, flare activity, and measurement uncertainties. We find that the largest decrease in mode amplitude and background power of an AR are caused by the angular distance of the AR from the solar disc centre. After correcting the mode parameters for foreshortening and filling factor, we find that the mode amplitude of flaring and dormant ARs are smaller than in corresponding QRs, and decreases with increasing MAI suggesting a larger mode power suppression in ARs with stronger magnetic fields. The mode widths in ARs are larger than in correspon...

  3. Broca's region and Visual Word Form Area activation differ during a predictive Stroop task.

    Wallentin, Mikkel; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg; Skakkebæk, Anne

    2015-12-01

    Competing theories attempt to explain the function of Broca's area in single word processing. Studies have found the region to be more active during processing of pseudo words than real words and during infrequent words relative to frequent words and during Stroop (incongruent) color words compared to Non-Stroop (congruent) words. Two related theories explain these findings as reflecting either "cognitive control" processing in the face of conflicting input or a linguistic prediction error signal, based on a predictive coding approach. The latter implies that processing cost refers to violations of expectations based on the statistical distributions of input. In this fMRI experiment we attempted to disentangle single word processing cost originating from cognitive conflict and that stemming from predictive expectation violation. Participants (N = 49) responded to whether the words "GREEN" or "RED" were displayed in green or red (incongruent vs congruent colors). One of the colors, however, was presented three times as often as the other, making it possible to study both congruency and frequency effects independently. Auditory stimuli saying "GREEN" or "RED" had the same distribution, making it possible to study frequency effects across modalities. We found significant behavioral effects of both incongruency and frequency. A significant effect (p effect of frequency was observed and no interaction. Conjoined effects of incongruency and frequency were found in parietal regions as well as in the Visual Word Form Area (VWFA). No interaction between perceptual modality and frequency was found in VWFA suggesting that the region is not strictly visual. These findings speak against a strong version of the prediction error processing hypothesis in Broca's region. They support the idea that prediction error processes in the intermediate timeframe are allocated to more posterior parts of the brain. PMID:26478962

  4. Application of BASNEF Model to Predict Postpartum Physical Activity in Mothers Visiting Health Centers in Kermanshah

    Zohreh Ouji

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: The high risk of physical inactivity in the postpartum period is associated with increased risk of obesity and diabetes in mothers. Therefore, the present study used the beliefs, attitudes, subjective norms, and enabling factors (BASNEF model to identify the predictors of postpartum physical activity among women visiting health centers in Kermanshah (Western of Iran. Materials and Methods: This descriptive-analytical study was performed on 400 women who visited health centers in Kermanshah. Multistage sampling was adopted to select the participants. The subjects were asked to fill out a questionnaire containing demographic variables, the BASNEF model constructs, and a short form of the international physical activity questionnaire. Data were analyzed using logistic and linear regression analysis and Pearson’s correlation analysis in SPSS-18. Results: Most mothers (83% had low levels of physical activity. Knowledge, attitude, and subjective norms could significantly predict the intention to perform physical activity. These variables accounted for 21% of the variance in behavioral intention. Moreover, behavioral intention was the best predictor of postpartum physical activity behaviors (P<0.001 β = 0.140. Conclusion: Based on our findings, the majority of mothers were inactive during the postpartum period. Relevant interventions should thus be designed to modify mothers’ behavioral intention and promote physical activity after childbirth.

  5. Predicting mercury retention in utility gas cleaning systems with SCR/ESP/FGD combinations or activated carbon injection

    Krishnakumar, Balaji; Naik, Chitralkumar V.; Niksa, Stephen [Niksa Energy Associates LLC, Belmont, CA (United States); Fujiwara, Naoki [Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd, Chiba (Japan). Coal and Environment Research Lab.

    2013-07-01

    This paper presents validations of the Hg speciation predicted by NEA's MercuRator trademark package with an American field test database for 28 full-scale utility gas cleaning systems. It emphasizes SCR/ESP/FGD combinations and activated carbon injection because these two applications present the best long- term prospects for Hg control by coal-burning utilities. Validations of the extents of Hg{sup 0} oxidation across SCRs and of Hg retention in wet FGDs gave correlation coefficients greater than 0.9 for both units. A transport-based FGD analysis correctly assessed the potential for Hg{sup 0} re-emission in one limestone wet FGD. Among the ten stations in the SCR/ESP/FGD validations, the simulations correctly identified 3 of 4 of the relatively high Hg emissions rates; all four of the sites with moderate emissions rates; and both sites with the lowest emission rates. The validations for ACI applications demonstrated that Hg removals can be accurately estimated for the full domain of coal quality, LOI, and ACI rates for both untreated and brominated carbon sorbents. The predictions for ACI depict the test-to-test variations in most cases, and accurately describe the impact of ACI configuration and sorbent type. ACI into FFs is the most effective configuration, although ACI into ESPs often removes 90% or more Hg, provided that there is sufficient residence time and Cl in the flue gas. Brominated sorbents perform better than untreated carbons, unless SO{sub 3} condensation inhibits Hg adsorption.

  6. A model for predicting changes in the electrical conductivity, practical salinity, and absolute salinity of seawater due to variations in relative chemical composition

    R. Pawlowicz

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Salinity determination in seawater has been carried out for almost 30 years using the 1978 Practical Salinity Standard. However, the numerical value of so-called practical salinity, computed from electrical conductivity, differs slightly from the true or absolute salinity, defined as the mass of dissolved solids per unit mass of seawater. The difference arises because more recent knowledge about the composition of seawater is not reflected in the definition of practical salinity, which was chosen to maintain historical continuity with previous measures, and because of spatial and temporal variations in the relative composition of seawater. Accounting for these variations in density calculations requires the calculation of a correction factor δSA, which is known to range from 0 to 0.03 g kg−1 in the world oceans. Here a mathematical model relating compositional perturbations to δSA is developed, by combining a chemical model for the composition of seawater with a mathematical model for predicting the conductivity of multi-component aqueous solutions. Model calculations generally agree with estimates of δSA based on fits to direct density measurements, and show that biogeochemical perturbations affect conductivity only weakly. However, small systematic differences between model and density-based estimates remain. These may arise for several reasons, including uncertainty about the biogeochemical processes involved in the increase in Total Alkalinity in the North Pacific, uncertainty in the carbon content of IAPSO standard seawater, and uncertainty about the haline contraction coefficient for the constituents involved in biogeochemical processes. This model may then be important in constraining these processes, as well as in future efforts to improve parameterizations for δSA.

  7. D-amino acid oxidase activator gene (DAOA) variation affects cerebrospinal fluid homovanillic acid concentrations in healthy Caucasians

    Andreou, Dimitrios; Saetre, Peter; Werge, Thomas;

    2012-01-01

    The D-amino acid oxidase activator (DAOA) protein regulates the function of D-amino oxidase (DAO), an enzyme that catalyzes the oxidative deamination of D-3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine (D-DOPA) and D-serine. D-DOPA is converted to L-3,4-DOPA, a precursor of dopamine, whereas D-serine participates in...... dopamine turnover in healthy individuals, suggesting that disturbed dopamine turnover is a possible mechanism behind the observed associations between genetic variation in DAOA and behavioral phenotypes in humans....

  8. Difference in variation of glass transition activation energy between 1,2-propanediamine and 1,2-propanediol

    Terashima, Yukio

    2016-05-01

    Variations of the effective activation energy (Eα) throughout the glass transition were determined for 1,2-propanediamine (12PDA) and 1,2-propanediol (12PDO) by applying an isoconversional method to differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) data. Eα was found to markedly decrease throughout the glass transition of 12PDA, whereas such drastic change in Eα was not observed for 12PDO. Although the two simple liquids are similar in molecular structure and size, their trends in Eα and fragility m throughout the glass transition can be quite different. The significant disparity in the kinetic parameters can be caused by differences in hydrogen-bonding structure between 12PDA and 12PDO.

  9. A method for predicting the number of active bubbles in sonochemical reactors.

    Merouani, Slimane; Ferkous, Hamza; Hamdaoui, Oualid; Rezgui, Yacine; Guemini, Miloud

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of the number of active bubbles in acoustic cavitation field is very important for the prediction of the performance of ultrasonic reactors toward most chemical processes induced by ultrasound. The literature in this field is scarce, probably due to the complicated nature of the phenomena. We introduce here a relatively simple semi-empirical method for predicting the number of active bubbles in an acoustic cavitation field. By coupling the bubble dynamics in an acoustical field with chemical kinetics occurring in the bubble during oscillation, the amount of the radical species OH and HO2 and molecular H2O2 released by a single bubble was estimated. Knowing that the H2O2 measured experimentally during sonication of water comes from the recombination of hydroxyl (OH) and perhydroxyl (HO2) radicals in the liquid phase and assuming that in sonochemistry applications, the cavitation is transient and the bubble fragments at the first collapse, the number of bubbles formed per unit time per unit volume is then easily determined using material balances for H2O2, OH and HO2 in the liquid phase. The effect of ultrasonic frequency on the number of active bubbles was examined. It was shown that increasing ultrasonic frequency leads to a substantial increase in the number of bubbles formed in the reactor. PMID:25127247

  10. ChIP-seq Accurately Predicts Tissue-Specific Activity of Enhancers

    Visel, Axel; Blow, Matthew J.; Li, Zirong; Zhang, Tao; Akiyama, Jennifer A.; Holt, Amy; Plajzer-Frick, Ingrid; Shoukry, Malak; Wright, Crystal; Chen, Feng; Afzal, Veena; Ren, Bing; Rubin, Edward M.; Pennacchio, Len A.

    2009-02-01

    A major yet unresolved quest in decoding the human genome is the identification of the regulatory sequences that control the spatial and temporal expression of genes. Distant-acting transcriptional enhancers are particularly challenging to uncover since they are scattered amongst the vast non-coding portion of the genome. Evolutionary sequence constraint can facilitate the discovery of enhancers, but fails to predict when and where they are active in vivo. Here, we performed chromatin immunoprecipitation with the enhancer-associated protein p300, followed by massively-parallel sequencing, to map several thousand in vivo binding sites of p300 in mouse embryonic forebrain, midbrain, and limb tissue. We tested 86 of these sequences in a transgenic mouse assay, which in nearly all cases revealed reproducible enhancer activity in those tissues predicted by p300 binding. Our results indicate that in vivo mapping of p300 binding is a highly accurate means for identifying enhancers and their associated activities and suggest that such datasets will be useful to study the role of tissue-specific enhancers in human biology and disease on a genome-wide scale.

  11. Prediction-error in the context of real social relationships modulates reward system activity

    Joshua ePoore

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The human reward system is sensitive to both social (e.g., validation and non-social rewards (e.g., money and is likely integral for relationship development and reputation building. However, data is sparse on the question of whether implicit social reward processing meaningfully contributes to explicit social representations such as trust and attachment security in pre-existing relationships. This event-related fMRI experiment examined reward system prediction-error activity in response to a potent social reward—social validation—and this activity’s relation to both attachment security and trust in the context of real romantic relationships. During the experiment, participants’ expectations for their romantic partners’ positive regard of them were confirmed (validated or violated, in either positive or negative directions. Primary analyses were conducted using predefined regions of interest, the locations of which were taken from previously published research. Results indicate that activity for mid-brain and striatal reward system regions of interest was modulated by social reward expectation violation in ways consistent with prior research on reward prediction-error. Additionally, activity in the striatum during viewing of disconfirmatory information was associated with both increases in post-scan reports of attachment anxiety and decreases in post-scan trust, a finding that follows directly from representational models of attachment and trust.

  12. A model for predicting coolant activity behaviour for fuel-failure monitoring analysis

    A mathematical treatment has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from operating defective CANDU nuclear fuel elements. The activity in both the fuel-to-sheath gap and primary heat transport system (PHTS) coolant as a function of time can be predicted during all reactor operating conditions, including: startup, steady-state, shutdown, and bundle-shifting manoeuvres. The model has been implemented as the STAR (Steady-state and Transient Activity Release) code. This code is stand-alone developed in the C++ programming language using a custom-developed finite-difference variable-mesh (FDVM) numerical solution technique. The model parameters are derived from in-reactor X-2 defective fuel experiments conducted at Chalk River Laboratories (CRL). STAR has been successfully benchmarked against analytical solutions of the diffusional release-to-birth ratio and coolant activity concentration of 129I. In addition, STAR has been validated against two documented defect occurrences in the Bruce-B commercial nuclear generating station (NGS). (author)

  13. Eye Movements during Auditory Attention Predict Individual Differences in Dorsal Attention Network Activity

    Braga, Rodrigo M.; Fu, Richard Z.; Seemungal, Barry M.; Wise, Richard J. S.; Leech, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The neural mechanisms supporting auditory attention are not fully understood. A dorsal frontoparietal network of brain regions is thought to mediate the spatial orienting of attention across all sensory modalities. Key parts of this network, the frontal eye fields (FEF) and the superior parietal lobes (SPL), contain retinotopic maps and elicit saccades when stimulated. This suggests that their recruitment during auditory attention might reflect crossmodal oculomotor processes; however this has not been confirmed experimentally. Here we investigate whether task-evoked eye movements during an auditory task can predict the magnitude of activity within the dorsal frontoparietal network. A spatial and non-spatial listening task was used with on-line eye-tracking and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). No visual stimuli or cues were used. The auditory task elicited systematic eye movements, with saccade rate and gaze position predicting attentional engagement and the cued sound location, respectively. Activity associated with these separate aspects of evoked eye-movements dissociated between the SPL and FEF. However these observed eye movements could not account for all the activation in the frontoparietal network. Our results suggest that the recruitment of the SPL and FEF during attentive listening reflects, at least partly, overt crossmodal oculomotor processes during non-visual attention. Further work is needed to establish whether the network’s remaining contribution to auditory attention is through covert crossmodal processes, or is directly involved in the manipulation of auditory information. PMID:27242465

  14. A model for predicting coolant activity behaviour for fuel-failure monitoring analysis

    A mathematical treatment has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from operating defected nuclear fuel elements. Diffusion theory is used to account for fission-product migration in the fuel matrix and a source release into the fuel-to-clad gap. Precursor diffusion is also considered for the isotopes of I-132 and Xe-135, which have relatively long-lived precursors. The transport and release of fission products from the gap is treated as a first-order rate process as characterized by a gap escape-rate coefficient. The fission product activity in the gap and coolant follows from a mass balance considering losses due to radioactive decay, neutron transmutation and coolant purification. The activity in both the fuel-to-clad gap and coolant as a function of time can therefore be predicted during all reactor operations including reactor shutdown, startup and bundle-shifting maneuvers. The model has been implemented as the STAR (Steady state and Transient Activity Release) code for use on personal computers with a finite-element solution of the mass transport equations using FEMLAB. The model parameters are derived from in-reactor experiments conducted with defected fuel elements containing natural and artificial failures at the Chalk River Laboratories. The STAR code has also been successfully validated against an analytical solution and benchmarked against several defect occurrences in the Bruce Nuclear Generating Station. (author)

  15. Sex Differences on a Mental Rotation Task: Variations in Hemispheric Activation Between Children and College Students

    Roberts, Jonathan E.

    1998-01-01

    The area of cognitive research that has produced the most consistent sex differences is the area of spatial ability. Particularly, males usually perform better on mental rotation tasks than do females. One argument for these differences is that experience with spatial activity drives these differences, such that traditionally more masculine activities require more practice of spatial abilities. Another argument is biological in nature, such that there is either 1) a critical period of deve...

  16. Genetic variation in COMT activity impacts learning and dopamine release capacity in the striatum

    Simpson, Eleanor H.; Morud, Julia; Winiger, Vanessa; Biezonski, Dominik; Zhu, Judy P.; Bach, Mary Elizabeth; Malleret, Gael; Polan, H. Jonathan; Ng-Evans, Scott; Phillips, Paul E.M.; Kellendonk, Christoph; Kandel, Eric R.

    2014-01-01

    A common genetic polymorphism that results in increased activity of the dopamine regulating enzyme COMT (the COMT Val158 allele) has been found to associate with poorer cognitive performance and increased susceptibility to develop psychiatric disorders. It is generally assumed that this increase in COMT activity influences cognitive function and psychiatric disease risk by increasing dopamine turnover in cortical synapses, though this cannot be directly measured in humans. Here we explore a n...

  17. Knee and Hip Joint Kinematics Predict Quadriceps and Hamstrings Neuromuscular Activation Patterns in Drop Jump Landings

    Malfait, Bart; Dingenen, Bart; Smeets, Annemie; Staes, Filip; Pataky, Todd; Robinson, Mark A.; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Verschueren, Sabine

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The purpose was to assess if variation in sagittal plane landing kinematics is associated with variation in neuromuscular activation patterns of the quadriceps-hamstrings muscle groups during drop vertical jumps (DVJ). Methods Fifty female athletes performed three DVJ. The relationship between peak knee and hip flexion angles and the amplitude of four EMG vectors was investigated with trajectory-level canonical correlation analyses over the entire time period of the landing phase. EMG vectors consisted of the {vastus medialis(VM),vastus lateralis(VL)}, {vastus medialis(VM),hamstring medialis(HM)}, {hamstring medialis(HM),hamstring lateralis(HL)} and the {vastus lateralis(VL),hamstring lateralis(HL)}. To estimate the contribution of each individual muscle, linear regressions were also conducted using one-dimensional statistical parametric mapping. Results The peak knee flexion angle was significantly positively associated with the amplitudes of the {VM,HM} and {HM,HL} during the preparatory and initial contact phase and with the {VL,HL} vector during the peak loading phase (p<0.05). Small peak knee flexion angles were significantly associated with higher HM amplitudes during the preparatory and initial contact phase (p<0.001). The amplitudes of the {VM,VL} and {VL,HL} were significantly positively associated with the peak hip flexion angle during the peak loading phase (p<0.05). Small peak hip flexion angles were significantly associated with higher VL amplitudes during the peak loading phase (p = 0.001). Higher external knee abduction and flexion moments were found in participants landing with less flexed knee and hip joints (p<0.001). Conclusion This study demonstrated clear associations between neuromuscular activation patterns and landing kinematics in the sagittal plane during specific parts of the landing. These findings have indicated that an erect landing pattern, characterized by less hip and knee flexion, was significantly associated with an

  18. Predicting Endoscopic Disease Activity in Crohn's Disease : A New and Validated Noninvasive Disease Activity Index (The Utrecht Activity Index)

    Minderhoud, Itta M.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; van Bodegraven, Ad A.; van der Woude, C. Janneke; Hommes, Daniel W.; Dijkstra, Gerard; Fidder, Herma H.; Schwartz, Matthijs P.; Oldenburg, Bas

    2015-01-01

    Background:Mucosal healing is presently considered one of the primary goals in treatment of Crohn's disease (CD), but this can only be confirmed by endoscopy. We aimed to design and validate a new disease activity index based on a combination of clinical characteristics and readily available laborat

  19. Group structure predicts variation in proximity relationships between male-female and male-infant pairs of mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei).

    Rosenbaum, S; Maldonado-Chaparro, A A; Stoinski, T S

    2016-01-01

    Relationships between conspecifics are influenced by both ecological factors and the social organization they live in. Systematic variation of both--consistent with predictions derived from socioecology models--is well documented, but there is considerable variation within species and populations that is poorly understood. The mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei) is unusual because, despite possessing morphology associated with male contest competition (e.g., extreme sexual dimorphism), they are regularly observed in both single-male and multimale groups. Both male-female and male-infant bonds are strong because males provide protection against infanticide and/or predation. Risk of these threats varies with social structure, which may influence the strength of social relationships among group members (including females and offspring, if females with lower infant mortality risk are less protective of infants). Here, we investigate the relationship between group structure and the strength of proximity relationships between males and females, males and infants, and females and offspring. Data come from 10 social groups containing 1-7 adult males, monitored by the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund's Karisoke Research Center in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda. After controlling for group size and infant age, association strength was similar for male-female pairs across group types with both dominant and nondominant males, but male-infant relationships were strongest in single-male groups where paternity certainty was high and animals had fewer social partners to choose from. The male:female and male:infant ratios better predicted both male-female and male-infant associations than the absolute number of males, females, or infants did. The fewer the number of males per female or infant, the more both pair types associated. Dominant males in groups containing fewer males had higher eigenvector centrality (a measure of importance in a social network) than dominant males in groups

  20. Variation of Coenzyme F420 Activity and Methane Yield in Landfill Simulation of Organic Waste

    CHENG Yun-huan; SANG Shu-xun; HUANG Hua-zhou; LIU Xiao-juan; OUYANG Jin-bao

    2007-01-01

    A simulated landfill anaerobic bioreactor was used to characterize the anaerobic biodegradation and biogas generation of organic waste which was mainly composed of residuals of vegetables and foods. We investigated the dynamics of the coenzyme F420 activity and determined correlations between biogas yields, methane yields, methane concentration and coenzyme F420 activity. The experiment was carried out under different conditions from control without any treatment, addition of Fe3+, microorganism inoculation to a combination of Fe3+ addition and inoculation at a temperature of 36±2 ℃. The experiment was lasted 120 d and coenzyme F420 activity was analyzed using ultraviolet spectrophotometry. Experimental results indicated that activity of the coenzyme F420 treated by Fe3+ and microorganism inoculation increased substantially. The waste treated by inoculation had the greatest increase. When the waste was treated by Fe3+, inoculation and the combination of Fe3+ and inoculation, biogas yields increased by 46.9%, 132.6% and 153.1%, respectively; while the methane yields increased 4, 97 and 98 times. Methane concentration varied between 0 and 6% in the control reactor, from 0 to 14% for waste treated by the addition of Fe3+, from 0 to 59% for waste treated by inoculation and from 0 to 63% for waste treated by Fe3+ addition and inoculation. Correlations between coenzyme F420 activity and biogas production, methane production and methane concentration proved to be positively significant (p<0.05), except for the control. Consequently, coenzyme F420 activity could be used as an index for monitoring the ac-tivity of methanogens during anaerobic biodegradation of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste.