Epidemic threshold in directed networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

2013-12-01

Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

Obesity and kidney disease: hidden consequences of the epidemic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Obesity has become a worldwide epidemic, and its prevalence has been projected to grow by 40% in the next decade. This increasing prevalence has implications for the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and also for Chronic Kidney Disease. A high body mass index is one of the strongest risk factors for new-onset ...

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

2014-01-01

Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

Maternal Colonization With Group B Streptococcus and Serotype Distribution Worldwide: Systematic Review and Meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Neal J; Seale, Anna C; O'Driscoll, Megan; O'Sullivan, Catherine; Bianchi-Jassir, Fiorella; Gonzalez-Guarin, Juan; Lawn, Joy E; Baker, Carol J; Bartlett, Linda; Cutland, Clare; Gravett, Michael G; Heath, Paul T; Le Doare, Kirsty; Madhi, Shabir A; Rubens, Craig E; Schrag, Stephanie; Sobanjo-Ter Meulen, Ajoke; Vekemans, Johan; Saha, Samir K; Ip, Margaret

2017-11-06

Maternal rectovaginal colonization with group B Streptococcus (GBS) is the most common pathway for GBS disease in mother, fetus, and newborn. This article, the second in a series estimating the burden of GBS, aims to determine the prevalence and serotype distribution of GBS colonizing pregnant women worldwide. We conducted systematic literature reviews (PubMed/Medline, Embase, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature [LILACS], World Health Organization Library Information System [WHOLIS], and Scopus), organized Chinese language searches, and sought unpublished data from investigator groups. We applied broad inclusion criteria to maximize data inputs, particularly from low- and middle-income contexts, and then applied new meta-analyses to adjust for studies with less-sensitive sampling and laboratory techniques. We undertook meta-analyses to derive pooled estimates of maternal GBS colonization prevalence at national and regional levels. The dataset regarding colonization included 390 articles, 85 countries, and a total of 299924 pregnant women. Our adjusted estimate for maternal GBS colonization worldwide was 18% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17%-19%), with regional variation (11%-35%), and lower prevalence in Southern Asia (12.5% [95% CI, 10%-15%]) and Eastern Asia (11% [95% CI, 10%-12%]). Bacterial serotypes I-V account for 98% of identified colonizing GBS isolates worldwide. Serotype III, associated with invasive disease, accounts for 25% (95% CI, 23%-28%), but is less frequent in some South American and Asian countries. Serotypes VI-IX are more common in Asia. GBS colonizes pregnant women worldwide, but prevalence and serotype distribution vary, even after adjusting for laboratory methods. Lower GBS maternal colonization prevalence, with less serotype III, may help to explain lower GBS disease incidence in regions such as Asia. High prevalence worldwide, and more serotype data, are relevant to prevention efforts. © The Author 2017. Published by

Global stability results for a generalized Lotka-Volterra system with distributed delays. Applications to predator-prey and to epidemic systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Beretta, E; Capasso, V; Rinaldi, F

1988-01-01

The paper contains an extension of the general ODE system proposed in previous papers by the same authors, to include distributed time delays in the interaction terms. The new system describes a large class of Lotka-Volterra like population models and epidemic models with continuous time delays. Sufficient conditions for the boundedness of solutions and for the global asymptotic stability of nontrivial equilibrium solutions are given. A detailed analysis of the epidemic system is given with respect to the conditions for global stability. For a relevant subclass of these systems an existence criterion for steady states is also given.

Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa

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Clement Nyamunura Mweya

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Background: The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. Methods: Diverse ecological niche modelling techniques have been developed for this purpose: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Results: Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Conclusion: Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods.

Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Mweya, Clement Nyamunura; Kimera, Sharadhuli Iddi; Kija, John Bukombe; Mboera, Leonard E G

2013-01-01

The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods.

Epidemic waves of cholera in the last two decades in Mozambique.

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Langa, José Paulo; Sema, Cynthia; De Deus, Nilsa; Colombo, Mauro Maria; Taviani, Elisa

2015-07-04

Africa is increasingly affected by cholera. In Mozambique, cholera appeared in the early 1970s when the seventh pandemic entered Africa from the Indian subcontinent. In the following decades, several epidemics were registered in the country, the 1997-1999 epidemic being the most extended. Since then, Mozambique has been considered an endemic area for cholera, characterized by yearly outbreaks occurring with a seasonal pattern. At least three pandemic variants are thought to have originated in the Indian subcontinent and spread worldwide at different times. To understand the epidemiology of cholera in Mozambique, whether the disease re-emerges periodically or is imported by different routes of transmission, we investigated clinical V. cholerae O1 isolated during 1997-1999 and 2012-2014 epidemics. By detecting and characterizing seven genetic elements, the mobilome profile of each isolate was obtained. By comparing it to known seventh pandemic reference strains, it was possible to discern among different V. cholerae O1 variants active in the country. During 1997-1999, epidemic strains showed two different genetic profiles, both related to a pandemic clone that originated from India and was reported in other African countries in the 1990s. Isolates from 2012-2014 outbreaks showed a genetic background related to the pandemic strains currently active as the prevalent causative agent of cholera worldwide. Despite cholera being endemic in Mozambique, the epidemiology of the disease in the past 20 years has been strongly influenced by the cholera seventh pandemic waves that originated in the Indian subcontinent.

Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

2009-01-01

We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

Analysis of Impact of Geographical Environment and Socio-economic Factors on the Spatial Distribution of Kaohsiung Dengue Fever Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, Wei-Yin; Wen, Tzai-Hung; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2013-04-01

Taiwan is located in subtropical and tropical regions with high temperature and high humidity in the summer. This kind of climatic condition is the hotbed for the propagation and spread of the dengue vector mosquito. Kaohsiung City has been the worst dengue fever epidemic city in Taiwan. During the study period, from January 1998 to December 2011, Taiwan CDC recorded 7071 locally dengue epidemic cases in Kaohsiung City, and the number of imported case is 118. Our research uses Quantile Regression, a spatial infection disease distribution, to analyze the correlation between dengue epidemic and geographic environmental factors and human society factors in Kaohsiung. According to our experiment statistics, agriculture and natural forest have a positive relation to dengue fever(5.5~34.39 and 3.91~15.52). The epidemic will rise when the ratio for agriculture and natural forest increases. Residential ratio has a negative relation for quantile 0.1 to 0.4(-0.005~-0.78), and a positive relation for quantile 0.5 to0.9(0.01~18.0) . The mean income is also a significant factor in social economy field, and it has a negative relation to dengue fever(-0.01~-0.04). Conclusion from our research is that the main factor affecting the degree of dengue fever in predilection area is the residential proportion and the ratio of agriculture and natural forest plays an important role affecting the degree of dengue fever in non predilection area. Moreover, the serious epidemic area located by regression model is the same as the actual condition in Kaohsiung. This model can be used to predict the serious epidemic area of dengue fever and provide some references for the Health Agencies

Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

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Lemaitre, Bruno

2016-10-01

Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Characteristics of TB Epidemic and TB/HIV Co-Infection Epidemic: A 2007-2013 Retrospective Study in Urumqi, Xinjiang Province, China.

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Wang Wei

Full Text Available This study was aimed to find out epidemiologic characteristic of tuberculosis (TB cases, and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV positive cases among TB patients (TB/HIV co-infection through demographic, temporal, and spatial study in Urumqi.Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were applied to identify the epidemiologic characteristics and risk factors of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic. All addresses of each TB case, TB/HIV co-infection case, and administrative street were transformed into geographical coordinate. Subsequently, the geocoded address for 82 streets was transformed into a dot map used as the basis of spatial datasets. In addition, the paper also used quantile map and the spatial scan statistic in order to identify the spatial distribution and spatial clusters of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic.There was a declining trend of the notification rates of TB epidemic from 2007 to 2009, as well as a rising trend from 2010 to 2013. However, the notification rates of TB/HIV co-infection epidemic showed a rising trend from 2007 to 2010, and a declining trend from 2011 to 2013. Moreover, a significant share of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic happened between the age of 15 to 45 years old, indicating an increase in risk of TB and TB/HIV infection. It is worth noting that the risk of HIV infection for male TB patients was 2.947 times (95% CI [2.178, 3.988] than that of female patients. Han ethnicity and Uygur ethnicity in urban region accounted for a large proportion of total TB and TB/HIV co-infection cases. Most of the TB cases of minorities in Urumqi showed a statistically significant increase in risk of HIV infection than Han ethnicity in Urumqi. In addition, the spatial distribution of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic was highly skewed. Most of the local clusters were located in urban area and rural-urban continuum where showed an increase in risk of TB and TB

Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

2016-09-01

Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

[Paediatric emergencies; example of the management of winter epidemics].

Science.gov (United States)

Mercier, Jean-Christophe; Bellettre, Xavier; Lejay, Émilie; Desmarest, Marie; Titomanlio, Luigi

2015-01-01

Every year, epidemics of viral bronchiolitis and gastroenteritis occur with a significant increase in the number of visits (by a factor 1.8) and hospitalisations that can over-exceed bed capacity leading to transfer sick children to other hospitals. This kind of hospital 'crisis' is not limited to paediatrics, big cities or western nations. It is a worldwide worrying problem. Because our hospital sits in the Northern districts of Paris where a large community of m.ncants lives in poverty, our number of visits is high (mean 250 per day), and winter epidemics further jeopardise the difficult equilibrium achieved between quality management and waiting times. Thus, we have taken various initiatives in terms of organisation of the paediatric emergency department and other wards, including a "fast track" clinic, the opening of beds dedicated to winter epidemics, the institution of a "bed manager" in order to more easily find a bed, and a larger use of home hospitalisations. Furthermore, we created a specific committee which may decide on various indicators of tension whether it is necessary to cancel programmed hospitalisations or surgery.in order to resolve the emergency crisis. This kind of organisation can serve as a model for other hospitals facing winter epidemics crises.

Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

2017-10-01

The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

2011-12-01

A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

Retinopathy of prematurity blindness worldwide: phenotypes in the third epidemic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quinn GE

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Graham E Quinn Division of Ophthalmology, The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Wood Center, Philadelphia, PA, USA Abstract: Blindness due to retinopathy of prematurity (ROP is an increasing problem worldwide as improved levels of neonatal care are provided in countries with developing neonatal intensive care units. The occurrence of ROP blindness varies dramatically with the socioeconomic development of a country. In regions with high levels of neonatal care and adequate resources, ROP blindness is largely restricted to premature infants with very low birth weight and low gestational age while in middle- and low-income countries with regional variation in technology and capacity, limited health resources may well limit the care of the premature newborn. Keywords: ROP, international, blindness

Mean field theory of epidemic spreading with effective contacts on networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

2015-01-01

We present a general approach to the analysis of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model with effective contacts on networks, where each susceptible node will be infected with a certain probability only for effective contacts. In the network, each node has a given effective contact number. By using the one-vertex heterogenous mean-field (HMF) approximation and the pair HMF approximation, we obtain conditions for epidemic outbreak on degree-uncorrelated networks. Our results suggest that the epidemic threshold is closely related to the effective contact and its distribution. However, when the effective contact is only dependent of node degree, the epidemic threshold can be established by the degree distribution of networks.

Epidemic spreading in weighted networks: an edge-based mean-field solution.

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Yang, Zimo; Zhou, Tao

2012-05-01

Weight distribution greatly impacts the epidemic spreading taking place on top of networks. This paper presents a study of a susceptible-infected-susceptible model on regular random networks with different kinds of weight distributions. Simulation results show that the more homogeneous weight distribution leads to higher epidemic prevalence, which, unfortunately, could not be captured by the traditional mean-field approximation. This paper gives an edge-based mean-field solution for general weight distribution, which can quantitatively reproduce the simulation results. This method could be applied to characterize the nonequilibrium steady states of dynamical processes on weighted networks.

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

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Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

2016-01-01

Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

Inter-epidemic abundance and distribution of potential mosquito vectors for Rift Valley fever virus in Ngorongoro district, Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Mweya, Clement N; Kimera, Sharadhuli I; Mellau, Lesakit S B; Mboera, Leonard E G

2015-01-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis that primarily affects ruminants but also has the capacity to infect humans. To determine the abundance and distribution of mosquito vectors in relation to their potential role in the virus transmission and maintenance in disease epidemic areas of Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania. A cross-sectional entomological investigation was carried out before the suspected RVF outbreak in October 2012. Mosquitoes were sampled both outdoors and indoors using the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) light traps and Mosquito Magnets baited with attractants. Outdoor traps were placed in proximity with breeding sites and under canopy in banana plantations close to the sleeping places of animals. A total of 1,823 mosquitoes were collected, of which 87% (N=1,588) were Culex pipiens complex, 12% (N=226) Aedes aegypti, and 0.5% (N=9) Anopheles species. About two-thirds (67%; N=1,095) of C. pipiens complex and nearly 100% (N=225) of A. aegypti were trapped outdoors using Mosquito Magnets. All Anopheles species were trapped indoors using CDC light traps. There were variations in abundance of C. pipiens complex and A. aegypti among different ecological and vegetation habitats. Over three quarters (78%) of C. pipiens complex and most (85%) of the A. aegypti were trapped in banana and maize farms. Both C. pipiens complex and A. aegypti were more abundant in proximity with cattle and in semi-arid thorn bushes and lower Afro-montane. The highest number of mosquitoes was recorded in villages that were most affected during the RVF epidemic of 2007. Of the tested 150 pools of C. pipiens complex and 45 pools of A. aegypti, none was infected with RVF virus. These results provide insights into unique habitat characterisation relating to mosquito abundances and distribution in RVF epidemic-prone areas of Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania.

Preventing the Epidemic of Mental Ill Health: An Overview

OpenAIRE

Robson , Anthony ,

2013-01-01

International audience; Diet, lifestyle and environment do not just affect a person's health, they also determine the health of their children and possibly the health of their grandchildren. Mental ill health is an epidemic worldwide because of the combined effect of the modern diet and a sedentary lifestyle. Primary prevention of mental ill health starts, crucially, with optimal adult nutrition before the inception of pregnancy, includes breastfeeding, and continues throughout the life of th...

Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

2013-01-01

Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Gou

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into account the heterogeneity of degree, our model considers not only the heterogeneity of degree but also the heterogeneity of susceptibility and recovery rates. Then, we analytically study the basic reproductive number and the final epidemic size. Combining with numerical simulations, it is found that the basic reproductive number depends on the mean of distributions of susceptibility and disease course when both of them are independent. If the mean of these two distributions is identical, increasing the variance of susceptibility may block the spread of epidemics, while the corresponding increase in the variance of disease course has little effect on the final epidemic size. It is also shown that positive correlations between individual susceptibility, course of disease and the square of degree make the population more vulnerable to epidemic and avail to the epidemic prevalence, whereas the negative correlations make the population less vulnerable and impede the epidemic prevalence. Keywords: Networks, Heterogeneity, Susceptibility, Recovery rates, Correlation, The basic reproductive number, The final epidemic size

Inter-epidemic abundance and distribution of potential mosquito vectors for Rift Valley fever virus in Ngorongoro district, Tanzania

OpenAIRE

Mweya, Clement N.; Kimera, Sharadhuli I.; Mellau, Lesakit S. B.; Mboera, Leonard E. G.

2015-01-01

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis that primarily affects ruminants but also has the capacity to infect humans. Objective: To determine the abundance and distribution of mosquito vectors in relation to their potential role in the virus transmission and maintenance in disease epidemic areas of Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania. Methods: A cross-sectional entomological investigation was carried out before the suspected RVF outbreak in October 2012. Mos...

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendrik Baumann

Full Text Available Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

Science.gov (United States)

Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

2018-12-01

Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Carrión, E; Ivorra, B; Martínez-López, B; Ramos, A M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

2016-04-01

Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. The present work describes a new module integrated into Be-FAST to model the economic consequences of the spreading of classical swine fever (CSF) and other infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. CSF is financially one of the most damaging diseases in the swine industry worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the economic costs in the two last CSF epidemics (1997 and 2001) reached jointly more than 108 million euros. The present analysis suggests that severe CSF epidemics are associated with significant economic costs, approximately 80% of which are related to animal culling. Direct costs associated with control measures are strongly associated with the number of infected farms, while indirect costs are more strongly associated with epidemic duration. The economic model has been validated with economic information around the last outbreaks in Spain. These results suggest that our economic module may be useful for analysing and predicting economic consequences of livestock disease epidemics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GlobAl Distribution of GEnetic Traits (GADGET) web server: polygenic trait scores worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Chande, Aroon T; Wang, Lu; Rishishwar, Lavanya; Conley, Andrew B; Norris, Emily T; Valderrama-Aguirre, Augusto; Jordan, I King

2018-05-18

Human populations from around the world show striking phenotypic variation across a wide variety of traits. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are used to uncover genetic variants that influence the expression of heritable human traits; accordingly, population-specific distributions of GWAS-implicated variants may shed light on the genetic basis of human phenotypic diversity. With this in mind, we developed the GlobAl Distribution of GEnetic Traits web server (GADGET http://gadget.biosci.gatech.edu). The GADGET web server provides users with a dynamic visual platform for exploring the relationship between worldwide genetic diversity and the genetic architecture underlying numerous human phenotypes. GADGET integrates trait-implicated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from GWAS, with population genetic data from the 1000 Genomes Project, to calculate genome-wide polygenic trait scores (PTS) for 818 phenotypes in 2504 individual genomes. Population-specific distributions of PTS are shown for 26 human populations across 5 continental population groups, with traits ordered based on the extent of variation observed among populations. Users of GADGET can also upload custom trait SNP sets to visualize global PTS distributions for their own traits of interest.

Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

2013-02-01

Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Shobugawa, Yugo; Wiafe, Seth A; Saito, Reiko; Suzuki, Tsubasa; Inaida, Shinako; Taniguchi, Kiyosu; Suzuki, Hiroshi

2012-06-19

Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was -0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak, WSD value changed to be a

[A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

Science.gov (United States)

Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

1994-01-01

A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

The Diabetes Epidemic in Korea

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Junghyun Noh

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Diabetes is one of the foremost public health issues worldwide that can lead to complications in many organ systems, and has become a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Korea. According to data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS, about 2.7 million Koreans (8.0% aged 30 years or older had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in 2013. The prevalence of T2DM increased with age and rose from 5.6% in 2006 to 8.0% in 2013. Using data based on The Health Screening Service of the NHIS, 25% of Korean adults were reported to have prediabetes in 2013. The prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose tended to increase over time from 21.5% in 2006 to 25.0% in 2013. Even though nationwide health screening has been regularly conducted as a public service, the proportion of undiagnosed cases of diabetes was still reported to be on the higher side in the latest study. Based on the results of these epidemic studies, further actions will be needed to effectively implement lifestyle changes on a social level and increase measures for the early detection of diabetes to stem the tide of the epidemic.

Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

2013-12-01

Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

Sensitivity analysis of an individual-based model for simulation of influenza epidemics.

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Elaine O Nsoesie

Full Text Available Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes to these parameters (in addition to the transmissibility would be useful for future studies and real-time modeling during an influenza pandemic.In this study, we examined individual and joint effects of parameters and ranked parameters based on their influence on the dynamics of simulated epidemics. We also compared the sensitivity of the model across synthetic social networks for Montgomery County in Virginia and New York City (and surrounding metropolitan regions with demographic and rural-urban differences. In addition, we studied the effects of changing the mean infectious period on age-specific epidemics. The research was performed from a public health standpoint using three relevant measures: time to peak, peak infected proportion and total attack rate. We also used statistical methods in the design and analysis of the experiments. The results showed that: (i minute changes in the transmissibility and mean infectious period significantly influenced the attack rate; (ii the mean of the incubation period distribution appeared to be sufficient for determining its effects on the dynamics of epidemics; (iii the infectious period distribution had the strongest influence on the structure of the epidemic curves; (iv the sensitivity of the individual-based model was consistent across social networks investigated in this study and (v age-specific epidemics were sensitive to changes in the mean infectious period irrespective of the susceptibility of the other age groups. These findings suggest that small changes in some of the disease model parameters can significantly influence the uncertainty

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

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Shobugawa Yugo

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012 and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045, but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant. It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak

The relationship between human behavior and the process of epidemic spreading in a real social network

Science.gov (United States)

Grabowski, A.; Rosińska, M.

2012-07-01

On the basis of experimental data on interactions between humans we have investigated the process of epidemic spreading in a social network. We found that the distribution of the number of contacts maintained in one day is exponential. Data on frequency and duration of interpersonal interactions are presented. They allow us to simulate the spread of droplet-/-air-borne infections and to investigate the influence of human dynamics on the epidemic spread. Specifically, we investigated the influence of the distribution of frequency and duration of those contacts on magnitude, epidemic threshold and peak timing of epidemics propagating in respective networks. It turns out that a large increase in the magnitude of an epidemic and a decrease in epidemic threshold are visible if and only if both are taken into account. We have found that correlation between contact frequency and duration strongly influences the effectiveness of control measures like mass immunization campaigns.

Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

2018-05-01

The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

Inter-epidemic abundance and distribution of potential mosquito vectors for Rift Valley fever virus in Ngorongoro district, Tanzania

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Clement N. Mweya

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis that primarily affects ruminants but also has the capacity to infect humans. Objective: To determine the abundance and distribution of mosquito vectors in relation to their potential role in the virus transmission and maintenance in disease epidemic areas of Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania. Methods: A cross-sectional entomological investigation was carried out before the suspected RVF outbreak in October 2012. Mosquitoes were sampled both outdoors and indoors using the Centre for Disease Control (CDC light traps and Mosquito Magnets baited with attractants. Outdoor traps were placed in proximity with breeding sites and under canopy in banana plantations close to the sleeping places of animals. Results: A total of 1,823 mosquitoes were collected, of which 87% (N=1,588 were Culex pipiens complex, 12% (N=226 Aedes aegypti, and 0.5% (N=9 Anopheles species. About two-thirds (67%; N=1,095 of C. pipiens complex and nearly 100% (N=225 of A. aegypti were trapped outdoors using Mosquito Magnets. All Anopheles species were trapped indoors using CDC light traps. There were variations in abundance of C. pipiens complex and A. aegypti among different ecological and vegetation habitats. Over three quarters (78% of C. pipiens complex and most (85% of the A. aegypti were trapped in banana and maize farms. Both C. pipiens complex and A. aegypti were more abundant in proximity with cattle and in semi-arid thorn bushes and lower Afro-montane. The highest number of mosquitoes was recorded in villages that were most affected during the RVF epidemic of 2007. Of the tested 150 pools of C. pipiens complex and 45 pools of A. aegypti, none was infected with RVF virus. Conclusions: These results provide insights into unique habitat characterisation relating to mosquito abundances and distribution in RVF epidemic-prone areas of Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania.

[Chronic non-communicable diseases: a global epidemic of the 21st century].

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Karl; Gudnason, Vilmundur

2012-11-01

Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the cause of 86% of all deaths in the EU and 65% of deaths worldwide. A third of these deaths occur before the age of sixty years. The NCDs affect 40% of the adult population of the EU and two thirds of the population reaching retirement age suffers from two or more NCDs. The NCDs are a global epidemic challenging economic growth in most countries. According to the WHO, NCDs are one of the major threats to worldwide social and economic development in the 21st century. The problem is of great concern to the international community and was discussed at a High level meeting at the UN General Assembly in September 2011. In this paper we review the epidemic of NCDs both from a national and international perspective. We discuss the causes and consequences. In a second review paper we reflect on the political health policy issues raised by the international community in order to respond to the problem. These issues will become a major challenge for social and economic development in most countries of the world in the coming decades.

Dutch Q fever epidemic in a ‘One Health’ context: outbreaks, seroprevalence and occupational risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schimmer, Barbara

2018-01-01

Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii (C. burnetii). Small ruminants, in particular sheep and goats, have been associated with community Q fever outbreaks in other countries. Just prior to the Dutch Q fever epidemic, a nationwide survey indicated that only 2.4% of

Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

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Closas Pau

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

2015-01-01

Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

Zika virus, vectors, reservoirs, amplifying hosts, and their potential to spread worldwide: what we know and what we should investigate urgently.

Science.gov (United States)

Vorou, Rengina

2016-07-01

The widespread epidemic of Zika virus infection in South and Central America and the Caribbean in 2015, along with the increased incidence of microcephaly in fetuses born to mothers infected with Zika virus and the potential for worldwide spread, indicate the need to review the current literature regarding vectors, reservoirs, and amplification hosts. The virus has been isolated in Africa in mosquitoes of the genera Aedes, Anopheles, and Mansonia, and in Southeast Asia and the Pacific area in mosquitoes of the genus Aedes. Aedes albopictus has invaded several countries in Central Africa and all Mediterranean countries, and continues to spread throughout Central and Northern Europe. The wide distribution of the virus in animal hosts and vectors favors the emergence of recombinants. The virus has been isolated in monkeys, and antibodies have been detected in domestic sheep, goats, horses, cows, ducks, rodents, bats, orangutans, and carabaos. It is a public health imperative to define the domestic and wild animal reservoirs, amplification hosts, and vector capacity of the genera Aedes, Anopheles, and Mansonia. These variables will define the geographic distribution of Zika virus along with the indicated timing and scale of the environmental public health interventions worldwide. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014 [v2; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/5fh

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Robin J. Evans

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a simple linear model. It contains one major parameter - the average infectious period that defines the dynamics of epidemics. Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data collected worldwide. Predictions are provided by considering different scenarios involving the average times of infectiousness for the next few months and the end of the current epidemic is estimated according to each scenario.

The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith

2017-01-05

We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary fixed network topology where the n agents, or nodes of the network, have partial information about the epidemic state. The agents react by distancing themselves from their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent\\'s awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time 2-state Markov chains. Through a coupling technique, we establish monotonicity properties between the benchmark and awareness models. Particularly, we show that the expectation of any increasing random variable on the space of sample paths, e.g. eradication time or total infections, is lower for the awareness model. In addition, we give a characterization for this difference of expectations in terms of the coupling distribution. In simulations, we evaluate how different sources of information affect the spread of an epidemic.

Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

Scaling of the propagation of epidemics in a system of mobile agents

OpenAIRE

Gonzalez, M. C.; Herrmann, H. J.

2004-01-01

For a two-dimensional system of agents modeled by molecular dynamics, we simulate epidemics spreading, which was recently studied on complex networks. Our resulting network model is time-evolving. We study the transitions to spreading as function of density, temperature and infection time. In addition, we analyze the epidemic threshold associated to a power-law distribution of infection times.

The changing face of pediatric hypertension in the era of the childhood obesity epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, Joseph

2013-07-01

Historically, hypertension in childhood was thought to be an uncommon diagnosis, usually related to an underlying condition, most often parenchymal renal disease. Primary hypertension in childhood was felt to be quite rare. However, the worldwide childhood obesity epidemic has had a profound impact on the frequency of hypertension and other obesity-related conditions with the result that primary hypertension should now be viewed as one of the most common health conditions in the young. This review will present updated data on the prevalence of hypertension in children and adolescents, the impact of the childhood obesity epidemic on hypertension prevalence and blood pressure levels, shifts in how often primary hypertension is being diagnosed in childhood, and an overview of the pathophysiology of obesity-related hypertension. It is hoped that improved understanding of the significance of these issues will lead to improved recognition and treatment, which will be the key to averting an epidemic of cardiovascular disease in adulthood.

Epidemic spreading on complex networks with overlapping and non-overlapping community structure

Science.gov (United States)

Shang, Jiaxing; Liu, Lianchen; Li, Xin; Xie, Feng; Wu, Cheng

2015-02-01

Many real-world networks exhibit community structure where vertices belong to one or more communities. Recent studies show that community structure plays an import role in epidemic spreading. In this paper, we investigate how the extent of overlap among communities affects epidemics. In order to experiment on the characteristic of overlapping communities, we propose a rewiring algorithm that can change the community structure from overlapping to non-overlapping while maintaining the degree distribution of the network. We simulate the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic process on synthetic scale-free networks and real-world networks by applying our rewiring algorithm. Experiments show that epidemics spread faster on networks with higher level of overlapping communities. Furthermore, overlapping communities' effect interacts with the average degree's effect. Our work further illustrates the important role of overlapping communities in the process of epidemic spreading.

Distribution of sasX, pvl, and qacA/B genes in epidemic methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains isolated from East China

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Kong H

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Haishen Kong,1,2 Lingmei Fang,3 Rujin Jiang,4 Jixiang Tong2 1State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; 2Key Laboratory of Clinical In Vitro Diagnostic Techniques of Zhejiang Province, Department of Laboratory Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; 3Clinical Laboratory, Chunan First People’s Hospital, Zhejiang Province People’s Hospital Chunan Branch, Hangzhou, China; 4Clinical Laboratory, Yuhang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hangzhou, China Background: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA is a major nosocomial pathogen. Various virulence and antiseptic-resistant factors increase the pathogenicity of MRSA strains and allow for increased infection rates.Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence and distribution of virulence-associated and antiseptic-resistant genes from epidemic MRSA strains isolated from East China.Methods: A newly designed multiplex PCR assay was used to assess whether the virulence-associated genes sasX and pvl and the chlorhexidine tolerance gene qacA/B were present in 189 clinical isolates of MRSA. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST and Staphylococcal protein A (spa typing of these isolates were also performed. The frequency of these genes in isolates with epidemic sequence types (STs was investigated. Results: Twenty STs and 36 spa types with five epidemic clones (ST5-t311, ST59-t437, ST5-t002, ST239-t030, and ST239-t037 were identified. The prevalence of sasX, pvl, and qacA/B in all isolates was 5.8%, 10.1%, and 20.1%, respectively. The prevalences of these genes in isolates with ST5, ST59, ST239, and other ST genetic backgrounds were all significantly different (P<0.001. Isolates that had the highest frequency of sas

Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

Science.gov (United States)

Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

2017-01-01

Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Rachel; Barcellos, Christovam; Brasil, Patrícia; Cruz, Oswaldo G; Honório, Nildimar Alves; Kuper, Hannah; Carvalho, Marilia Sá

2018-01-09

The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide.

The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Lowe

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain–Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide.

Optimal control of epidemic information dissemination over networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Pin-Yu; Cheng, Shin-Ming; Chen, Kwang-Cheng

2014-12-01

Information dissemination control is of crucial importance to facilitate reliable and efficient data delivery, especially in networks consisting of time-varying links or heterogeneous links. Since the abstraction of information dissemination much resembles the spread of epidemics, epidemic models are utilized to characterize the collective dynamics of information dissemination over networks. From a systematic point of view, we aim to explore the optimal control policy for information dissemination given that the control capability is a function of its distribution time, which is a more realistic model in many applications. The main contributions of this paper are to provide an analytically tractable model for information dissemination over networks, to solve the optimal control signal distribution time for minimizing the accumulated network cost via dynamic programming, and to establish a parametric plug-in model for information dissemination control. In particular, we evaluate its performance in mobile and generalized social networks as typical examples.

Temperature profile data from XBT casts from a World-Wide Distribution 31 March 1985 to 24 November 1990 (NODC Accession 9700191)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Physical data were collected from XBT casts from from a World-Wide Distribution from 31 March 1985 to 24 November 1990. Physical parameters include temperature...

FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

2012-10-04

The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size

Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH), with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values predicted by our simulator match

Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martín Gonzalo

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH, with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values

Spatiotemporal modelling and mapping of the bubonic plague epidemic in India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christakos George

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This work studies the spatiotemporal evolution of bubonic plague in India during 1896–1906 using stochastic concepts and geographical information science techniques. In the past, most investigations focused on selected cities to conduct different kinds of studies, such as the ecology of rats. No detailed maps existed incorporating the space-time dependence structure and uncertainty sources of the epidemic system and providing a composite space-time picture of the disease propagation characteristics. Results Informative spatiotemporal maps were generated that represented mortality rates and geographical spread of the disease, and epidemic indicator plots were derived that offered meaningful characterizations of the spatiotemporal disease distribution. The bubonic plague in India exhibited strong seasonal and geographical features. During its entire duration, the plague continued to invade new geographical areas, while it followed a re-emergence pattern at many localities; its rate changed significantly during each year and the mortality distribution exhibited space-time heterogeneous patterns; prevalence usually occurred in the autumn and spring, whereas the plague stopped moving towards new locations during the summers. Conclusion Modern stochastic modelling and geographical information science provide powerful means to study the spatiotemporal distribution of the bubonic plague epidemic under conditions of uncertainty and multi-sourced databases; to account for various forms of interdisciplinary knowledge; and to generate informative space-time maps of mortality rates and propagation patterns. To the best of our knowledge, this kind of plague maps and plots become available for the first time, thus providing novel perspectives concerning the distribution and space-time propagation of the deadly epidemic. Furthermore, systematic maps and indicator plots make possible the comparison of the spatial-temporal propagation

Coevolution of Epidemics, Social Networks, and Individual Behavior: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jiangzhuo; Marathe, Achla; Marathe, Madhav

This research shows how a limited supply of antivirals can be distributed optimally between the hospitals and the market so that the attack rate is minimized and enough revenue is generated to recover the cost of the antivirals. Results using an individual based model find that prevalence elastic demand behavior delays the epidemic and change in the social contact network induced by isolation reduces the peak of the epidemic significantly. A microeconomic analysis methodology combining behavioral economics and agent-based simulation is a major contribution of this work. In this paper we apply this methodology to analyze the fairness of the stockpile distribution, and the response of human behavior to disease prevalence level and its interaction with the market.

Prediction of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in western Africa by using climate information

Science.gov (United States)

YAKA, D. P.; Sultan, B.; Tarbangdo, F.; Thiaw, W. M.

2013-12-01

The variations of certain climatic parameters and the degradation of ecosystems, can affect human's health by influencing the transmission, the spatiotemporal repartition and the intensity of infectious diseases. It is mainly the case of meningococcal meningitis (MCM) whose epidemics occur particularly in Sahelo-Soudanian climatic area of Western Africa under quite particular climatic conditions. Meningococcal Meningitis (MCM) is a contagious infection disease due to the bacteria Neisseria meningitis. MCM epidemics occur worldwide but the highest incidence is observed in the "meningitis belt" of sub-Saharan Africa, stretching from Senegal to Ethiopia. In spite of standards, strategies of prevention and control of MCS epidemic from World Health Organization (WHO) and States, African Sahelo-Soudanian countries remain frequently afflicted by disastrous epidemics. In fact, each year, during the dry season (February-April), 25 to 250 thousands of cases are observed. Children under 15 are particularly affected. Among favourable conditions for the resurgence and dispersion of the disease, climatic conditions may be important inducing seasonal fluctuations in disease incidence and contributing to explain the spatial pattern of the disease roughly circumscribed to the ecological Sahelo-Sudanian band. In this study, we tried to analyse the relationships between climatic factors, ecosystems degradation and MCM for a better understanding of MCM epidemic dynamic and their prediction. We have shown that MCM epidemics, whether at the regional, national or local level, occur in a specific period of the year, mainly from January to May characterised by a dry, hot and sandy weather. We have identified both in situ (meteorological synoptic stations) and satellitales climatic variables (NCEP reanalysis dataset) whose seasonal variability is dominating in MCM seasonal transmission. Statistical analysis have measured the links between seasonal variation of certain climatic parameters

Epidemic typhus.

Science.gov (United States)

Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

2008-07-01

Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

A threshold limit theorem for the stochastic logistic epidemic

OpenAIRE

Andersson, Håkan; Djehiche, Boualem

1998-01-01

The time until extinction for the closed SIS stochastic logistic epidemic model is investigated. We derive the asymptotic distribution for the extinction time as the population grows to infinity, under different initial conditions and for different values of the infection rate.

Estimating epidemic arrival times using linear spreading theory

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lawrence M.; Holzer, Matt; Shapiro, Anne

2018-01-01

We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is composed of a system of ordinary differential equations describing a meta-population susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental model defined on a network where each node represents a city and the edges represent the flight paths connecting cities. Making use of the linear determinacy of the system, we consider spreading speeds and arrival times in the system linearized about the unstable disease free state and compare these to arrival times in the nonlinear system. Two predictions are presented. The first is based upon expansion of the heat kernel for the linearized system. The second assumes that the dominant transmission pathway between any two cities can be approximated by a one dimensional lattice or a homogeneous tree and gives a uniform prediction for arrival times independent of the specific network features. We test these predictions on a real network describing worldwide airline traffic.

Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

2012-01-01

We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

2012-09-03

We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

Estimating the spatial distribution of a plant disease epidemic from a sample

Science.gov (United States)

Sampling is of central importance in plant pathology. It facilitates our understanding of how epidemics develop in space and time and can also be used to inform disease management decisions. Making inferences from a sample is necessary because we rarely have the resources to conduct a complete censu...

Temperature profile data from MBT casts in a world-wide distribution from 23 December 1964 to 19 December 1991 (NODC Accession 0000216)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using MBT casts from multiple platforms in a world-wide distribution from December 23, 1964 to December 19, 1991. Additonal...

Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

2015-01-01

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers.

Science.gov (United States)

Sazonov, Igor; Kelbert, Mark; Gravenor, Michael B

2016-04-01

We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia.

Science.gov (United States)

Atkins, Katherine E; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L; Galvani, Alison P

2016-04-01

The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Da Silva, Renato Aparecido Pimentel; Viana, Matheus Palhares; Da Fontoura Costa, Luciano

2012-01-01

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdös–Rényi (ER), Barabási–Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered. (paper)

Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

A distribution benefits model for improved information on worldwide crop production. Volume 1: Model structure and application to wheat

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, J.

1976-01-01

The improved model is suitable for the study of benefits of worldwide information on a variety of crops. Application to the previously studied case of worldwide wheat production shows that about $108 million per year of distribution benefits to the United States would be achieved by a satellite-based wheat information system meeting the goals of LACIE. The model also indicates that improved information alone will not change world stock levels unless production itself is stabilized. The United States benefits mentioned above are associated with the reduction of price fluctuations within the year and the more effective use of international trade to balance supply and demand. Price fluctuations from year to year would be reduced only if production variability were itself reduced.

Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

2015-06-01

The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

Obesity as malnutrition: the role of capitalism in the obesity global epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Jonathan C K

2012-01-01

The global obesity epidemic remains poorly understood, partly because it has emerged alongside persisting under-nutrition in many populations. At an abstract level, obesity develops from exposure to the "obesogenic niche," comprising diverse factors predisposing to weight gain. This article first explores how susceptibility to the obesogenic niche is influenced by developmental and life-history experience. Human growth is sensitive to early-life ecological conditions, under the transducing effect of maternal phenotype. Such plasticity is associated with subsequent variability in body composition and metabolism, impacting susceptibility to the obesogenic niche, albeit with heterogeneity across populations. Both nutritional constraint and nutritional excess during early life are associated with variability in relevant molecular pathways. The article then considers the fundamental contribution of capitalist economics to population under-nutrition and over-nutrition. Historically, capitalism contributed to the under-nutrition of many populations through demand for cheap labor. As the limiting factor for economic growth switched to consumption, capitalism has increasingly driven consumer behavior inducing widespread over-nutrition. In populations undergoing nutritional transition, many individuals encounter both under- and over-nutrition within the life course, elevating both susceptibility and exposure to the obesogenic niche. The interactions between global economic forces and nutritional shifts are distributed across generations, and are strongly transduced by maternal effects. The structural connections between undernourished and overnourished worldwide and between under- and over-nutrition within individual life-courses highlight the central role of capitalist economics in the global obesity epidemic. Prevention policies targeting individual behavior have proved ineffective and economic policies are arguably the optimal target for intervention. Copyright © 2012

Epidemic as a natural process.

Science.gov (United States)

Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

2018-05-01

Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

OpenAIRE

Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

2016-01-01

Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

Partial LVAD restores ventricular outputs and normalizes LV but not RV stress distributions in the acutely failing heart in silico

OpenAIRE

Sack, Kevin L.; Baillargeon, Brian; Acevedo-Bolton, Gabriel; Genet, Martin; Rebelo, Nuno; Kuhl, Ellen; Klein, Liviu; Weiselthaler, Georg M.; Burkhoff, Daniel; Franz, Thomas; Guccione, Julius M.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Heart failure is a worldwide epidemic that is unlikely to change as the population ages and life expectancy increases. We sought to detail significant recent improvements to the Dassault Systèmes Living Heart Model (LHM) and use the LHM to compute left ventricular (LV) and right ventricular (RV) myofiber stress distributions under the following 4 conditions: (1) normal cardiac function; (2) acute left heart failure (ALHF); (3) ALHF treated using an LV assist device (LVAD) flow rate o...

Susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemics on networks with general infection and cure times

Science.gov (United States)

Cator, E.; van de Bovenkamp, R.; Van Mieghem, P.

2013-06-01

The classical, continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) Markov epidemic model on an arbitrary network is extended to incorporate infection and curing or recovery times each characterized by a general distribution (rather than an exponential distribution as in Markov processes). This extension, called the generalized SIS (GSIS) model, is believed to have a much larger applicability to real-world epidemics (such as information spread in online social networks, real diseases, malware spread in computer networks, etc.) that likely do not feature exponential times. While the exact governing equations for the GSIS model are difficult to deduce due to their non-Markovian nature, accurate mean-field equations are derived that resemble our previous N-intertwined mean-field approximation (NIMFA) and so allow us to transfer the whole analytic machinery of the NIMFA to the GSIS model. In particular, we establish the criterion to compute the epidemic threshold in the GSIS model. Moreover, we show that the average number of infection attempts during a recovery time is the more natural key parameter, instead of the effective infection rate in the classical, continuous-time SIS Markov model. The relative simplicity of our mean-field results enables us to treat more general types of SIS epidemics, while offering an easier key parameter to measure the average activity of those general viral agents.

Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

2014-01-01

This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

2014-02-01

This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

Distributive justice and the harm to medical professionals fighting epidemics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Albertsen, Andreas; Thaysen, Jens Damgaard

2017-01-01

The exposure of doctors, nurses and other medical professionals to risks in the context of epidemics is significant. While traditional medical ethics offers the thought that these dangers may limit the extent to which a duty to care is applicable in such situations, it has less to say about what we......, cure and care for the vulnerable, luck egalitarianism seems to imply that their claim of justice to medical attention in case of infection is weak or non-existent. The article demonstrates how a recent interpretation of luck egalitarianism offers a solution to this problem. Redefining luck...

On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

2014-01-01

Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

Effective degree Markov-chain approach for discrete-time epidemic processes on uncorrelated networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Chao-Ran; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Guan, Jian-Yue

2014-11-01

Recently, Gómez et al. proposed a microscopic Markov-chain approach (MMCA) [S. Gómez, J. Gómez-Gardeñes, Y. Moreno, and A. Arenas, Phys. Rev. E 84, 036105 (2011)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.84.036105] to the discrete-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic process and found that the epidemic prevalence obtained by this approach agrees well with that by simulations. However, we found that the approach cannot be straightforwardly extended to a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic process (due to its irreversible property), and the epidemic prevalences obtained by MMCA and Monte Carlo simulations do not match well when the infection probability is just slightly above the epidemic threshold. In this contribution we extend the effective degree Markov-chain approach, proposed for analyzing continuous-time epidemic processes [J. Lindquist, J. Ma, P. Driessche, and F. Willeboordse, J. Math. Biol. 62, 143 (2011)JMBLAJ0303-681210.1007/s00285-010-0331-2], to address discrete-time binary-state (SIS) or three-state (SIR) epidemic processes on uncorrelated complex networks. It is shown that the final epidemic size as well as the time series of infected individuals obtained from this approach agree very well with those by Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are robust to the change of different parameters, including the total population size, the infection probability, the recovery probability, the average degree, and the degree distribution of the underlying networks.

Retrospective Analysis of the 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia

Science.gov (United States)

Atkins, Katherine E.; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S.; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G.; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L.; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L.; Galvani, Alison P.

2016-01-01

The 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40–80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. PMID:26928839

Elecnuc. Nuclear power plants worldwide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-01-01

This small folder presents a digest of some useful information concerning the nuclear power plants worldwide and the situation of nuclear industry at the end of 1997: power production of nuclear origin, distribution of reactor types, number of installed units, evolution and prediction of reactor orders, connections to the grid and decommissioning, worldwide development of nuclear power, evolution of power production of nuclear origin, the installed power per reactor type, market shares and exports of the main nuclear engineering companies, power plants constructions and orders situation, evolution of reactors performances during the last 10 years, know-how and development of nuclear safety, the remarkable facts of 1997, the future of nuclear power and the energy policy trends. (J.S.)

Diversity of multilayer networks and its impact on collaborating epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Min, Yong; Hu, Jiaren; Wang, Weihong; Ge, Ying; Chang, Jie; Jin, Xiaogang

2014-12-01

Interacting epidemics on diverse multilayer networks are increasingly important in modeling and analyzing the diffusion processes of real complex systems. A viral agent spreading on one layer of a multilayer network can interact with its counterparts by promoting (cooperative interaction), suppressing (competitive interaction), or inducing (collaborating interaction) its diffusion on other layers. Collaborating interaction displays different patterns: (i) random collaboration, where intralayer or interlayer induction has the same probability; (ii) concentrating collaboration, where consecutive intralayer induction is guaranteed with a probability of 1; and (iii) cascading collaboration, where consecutive intralayer induction is banned with a probability of 0. In this paper, we develop a top-bottom framework that uses only two distributions, the overlaid degree distribution and edge-type distribution, to model collaborating epidemics on multilayer networks. We then state the response of three collaborating patterns to structural diversity (evenness and difference of network layers). For viral agents with small transmissibility, we find that random collaboration is more effective in networks with higher diversity (high evenness and difference), while the concentrating pattern is more suitable in uneven networks. Interestingly, the cascading pattern requires a network with moderate difference and high evenness, and the moderately uneven coupling of multiple network layers can effectively increase robustness to resist cascading failure. With large transmissibility, however, we find that all collaborating patterns are more effective in high-diversity networks. Our work provides a systemic analysis of collaborating epidemics on multilayer networks. The results enhance our understanding of biotic and informative diffusion through multiple vectors.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A comprehensive review of a growing epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Kareem; Bhalla, Varun; Ezz El Regal, Mohammed; A-Kader, H Hesham

2014-01-01

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is quickly becoming one of the most prominent causes of liver disease worldwide. The increasing incidence of NAFLD is tied to the obesity epidemic and the subsequent metabolic derangements brought along with it. Current efforts to elucidate the mechanism and causes of the disease have answered some questions, but much remains unknown about NAFLD. The aim of this article is to discuss the current knowledge regarding the pathogenesis of the disease, as well as the current and future diagnostic, preventative, and therapeutic options available to clinicians for the management of NAFLD. PMID:25232245

HIV epidemic appraisals for assisting in the design of effective prevention programmes: shifting the paradigm back to basics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sharmistha Mishra

Full Text Available To design HIV prevention programmes, it is critical to understand the temporal and geographic aspects of the local epidemic and to address the key behaviours that drive HIV transmission. Two methods have been developed to appraise HIV epidemics and guide prevention strategies. The numerical proxy method classifies epidemics based on current HIV prevalence thresholds. The Modes of Transmission (MOT model estimates the distribution of incidence over one year among risk-groups. Both methods focus on the current state of an epidemic and provide short-term metrics which may not capture the epidemiologic drivers. Through a detailed analysis of country and sub-national data, we explore the limitations of the two traditional methods and propose an alternative approach.We compared outputs of the traditional methods in five countries for which results were published, and applied the numeric and MOT model to India and six districts within India. We discovered three limitations of the current methods for epidemic appraisal: (1 their results failed to identify the key behaviours that drive the epidemic; (2 they were difficult to apply to local epidemics with heterogeneity across district-level administrative units; and (3 the MOT model was highly sensitive to input parameters, many of which required extraction from non-regional sources. We developed an alternative decision-tree framework for HIV epidemic appraisals, based on a qualitative understanding of epidemiologic drivers, and demonstrated its applicability in India. The alternative framework offered a logical algorithm to characterize epidemics; it required minimal but key data.Traditional appraisals that utilize the distribution of prevalent and incident HIV infections in the short-term could misguide prevention priorities and potentially impede efforts to halt the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. An approach that characterizes local transmission dynamics provides a potentially more effective tool with

Equipment and services for worldwide applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1985-01-01

The report presents a digest of geothermal energy technology. The worldwide distribution of geothermal resources is described, and the degree to which various countries are exploiting their resources estimated. Detailed information about US technologies is presented, from exploration through applications to cost factors. (ACR)

On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

2015-12-01

The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dih-Ling Luh

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

Science.gov (United States)

Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

2007-04-01

In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

Object Distribution Networks for World-wide Document Circulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lijding, M.E.M.; Righetti, Claudio E.; Moldes, Leandro Navarro

1997-01-01

This paper presents an Object Distribution System (ODS), a distributed system inspired by the ultra-large scale distribution models used in everyday life (e.g. food or newspapers distribution chains). Beyond traditional mechanisms of approaching information to readers (e.g. caching and mirroring),

Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiyori T Urabe

Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

Chlorophyll, temperature, depth, and irradiance data from bottle in a world-wide distribution from 28 February 1964 to 02 April 1994 (NODC Accession 0000268)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Chlorophyll, temperature, depth, and irradiance data were collected using bottle from multiple vessels in a world-wide distribution from 28 February 1964 to 02 April...

Mean-field level analysis of epidemics in directed networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jiazeng [School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Liu, Zengrong [Mathematics Department, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China)], E-mail: wangjiazen@yahoo.com.cn, E-mail: zrongliu@online.sh.cn

2009-09-04

The susceptible-infected-removed spreading model in a directed graph is studied. The mean-field level rate equations are built with the degree-degree connectivity correlation element and the (in, out)-degree distribution. And the outbreak threshold is obtained analytically-it is determined by the combination of connectivity probability and the degree distribution. Furthermore, the methods of calculating the degree-degree correlations in directed networks are presented. The numerical results of the discrete epidemic processes in networks verify our analyses.

Mean-field level analysis of epidemics in directed networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Jiazeng; Liu, Zengrong

2009-01-01

The susceptible-infected-removed spreading model in a directed graph is studied. The mean-field level rate equations are built with the degree-degree connectivity correlation element and the (in, out)-degree distribution. And the outbreak threshold is obtained analytically-it is determined by the combination of connectivity probability and the degree distribution. Furthermore, the methods of calculating the degree-degree correlations in directed networks are presented. The numerical results of the discrete epidemic processes in networks verify our analyses.

A Bayesian method for inferring transmission chains in a partially observed epidemic.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marzouk, Youssef M.; Ray, Jaideep

2008-10-01

We present a Bayesian approach for estimating transmission chains and rates in the Abakaliki smallpox epidemic of 1967. The epidemic affected 30 individuals in a community of 74; only the dates of appearance of symptoms were recorded. Our model assumes stochastic transmission of the infections over a social network. Distinct binomial random graphs model intra- and inter-compound social connections, while disease transmission over each link is treated as a Poisson process. Link probabilities and rate parameters are objects of inference. Dates of infection and recovery comprise the remaining unknowns. Distributions for smallpox incubation and recovery periods are obtained from historical data. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo, we explore the joint posterior distribution of the scalar parameters and provide an expected connectivity pattern for the social graph and infection pathway.

Temperature profiles from MBT casts from a World-Wide distribution from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from 1948-04-08 to 1968-12-14 (NODC Accession 9300131)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected from MBT casts from a World-Wide distribution. Data were collected from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from 08 April 1948 to 14 Decmeber...

Chemical, temperature, and other data from bottle casts in a world-wide distribution from 04 October 1961 to 24 August 1990 (NODC Accession 0000231)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Chemical, temperature, and other data were collected using bottle casts in a world-wide distribution from multiple ships from October 4, 1961 to August 24, 1990....

[Epidemic situation and prevention and control strategy of clonorchiasis in Guangdong Province, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuo-Hui, Deng; Yue-Yi, Fang

2016-05-24

Clonorchiasis is one of the food-borne parasitic diseases. Adult parasites live in the human liver and gallbladder tube system, causing serious complications, such as gallstones, cholecystitis and cholangitis, and even bile duct cancer. The disease is very popular in our country, and the population infection rate is high. It is an important public health problem. Guangdong Province is the earliest province being found of clonorchiasis and with serious epidemic. In the second national human parasitic diseases distribution survey, the results showed that the average infection rate of Clonorchis sinensis in the epidemic areas in Guangdong was 16.42%. It is estimated that the population of C. sinensis infection is over 6 million. The prevention and control of clonorchiasis in China is still in the initial stage currently and we face many challenges such as unclear epidemic characteristics and transmission mode, and lack of long-term prevention and control mechanism. This article introduces the epidemic situation of clonorchiasis and prevention and control strategies and measures in Guangdong.

Temperature profiles from XBT casts from a World-Wide distribution from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from 1979-06-03 to 1988-05-27 (NODC Accession 8800182)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profiles were collected from XBT casts from a World-Wide distribution. Data were collected from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from 03 June 1979 to 27 May 1988. Data...

Hepatitis E epidemics in India

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

Different behaviors of epidemic spreading in scale-free networks with identical degree sequence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chu Xiangwei; Guan Jihong [School of Electronics and Information, Tongji University, 4800 Cao' an Road, Shanghai 201804 (China); Zhang Zhongzhi; Zhou Shuigeng [School of Computer Science, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Li Mo, E-mail: zhangzz@fudan.edu.c, E-mail: jhguan@tongj.edu.c, E-mail: sgzhou@fudan.edu.c [Software School, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China)

2010-02-12

Recently, the study of dynamical behaviors of the susceptible-infected (SI) disease model in complex networks, especially in Barabasi-Albert (BA) scale-free networks, has attracted much attention. Although some interesting phenomena have been observed, the formative reasons for those particular dynamical behaviors are still not well understood, despite the speculation that topological properties (for example the degree distribution) have a strong impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, we study the evolution behaviors of epidemic spreading on a class of scale-free networks sharing identical degree sequence, and observe significantly different evolution behaviors in the whole family of networks. We show that the power-law degree distribution does not suffice to characterize the dynamical behaviors of disease diffusion on scale-free networks.

Different behaviors of epidemic spreading in scale-free networks with identical degree sequence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu Xiangwei; Guan Jihong; Zhang Zhongzhi; Zhou Shuigeng; Li Mo

2010-01-01

Recently, the study of dynamical behaviors of the susceptible-infected (SI) disease model in complex networks, especially in Barabasi-Albert (BA) scale-free networks, has attracted much attention. Although some interesting phenomena have been observed, the formative reasons for those particular dynamical behaviors are still not well understood, despite the speculation that topological properties (for example the degree distribution) have a strong impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, we study the evolution behaviors of epidemic spreading on a class of scale-free networks sharing identical degree sequence, and observe significantly different evolution behaviors in the whole family of networks. We show that the power-law degree distribution does not suffice to characterize the dynamical behaviors of disease diffusion on scale-free networks.

Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

2016-08-01

Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

Real time bayesian estimation of the epidemic potential of emerging infectious diseases.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luís M A Bettencourt

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Fast changes in human demographics worldwide, coupled with increased mobility, and modified land uses make the threat of emerging infectious diseases increasingly important. Currently there is worldwide alert for H5N1 avian influenza becoming as transmissible in humans as seasonal influenza, and potentially causing a pandemic of unprecedented proportions. Here we show how epidemiological surveillance data for emerging infectious diseases can be interpreted in real time to assess changes in transmissibility with quantified uncertainty, and to perform running time predictions of new cases and guide logistics allocations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We develop an extension of standard epidemiological models, appropriate for emerging infectious diseases, that describes the probabilistic progression of case numbers due to the concurrent effects of (incipient human transmission and multiple introductions from a reservoir. The model is cast in terms of surveillance observables and immediately suggests a simple graphical estimation procedure for the effective reproductive number R (mean number of cases generated by an infectious individual of standard epidemics. For emerging infectious diseases, which typically show large relative case number fluctuations over time, we develop a bayesian scheme for real time estimation of the probability distribution of the effective reproduction number and show how to use such inferences to formulate significance tests on future epidemiological observations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Violations of these significance tests define statistical anomalies that may signal changes in the epidemiology of emerging diseases and should trigger further field investigation. We apply the methodology to case data from World Health Organization reports to place bounds on the current transmissibility of H5N1 influenza in humans and establish a statistical basis for monitoring its evolution in real time.

Temporal prediction of epidemic patterns in community networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael

2013-01-01

Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent behaviour in one region because of the invasion from an endemic population elsewhere. In this paper we address this issue and study a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemiological model on a network consisting of two communities, where the disease is endemic in one community but alternates between outbreaks and extinctions in the other. We provide a detailed characterization of the temporal dynamics of epidemic patterns in the latter community. In particular, we investigate the time duration of both outbreak and extinction, and the time interval between two consecutive inter-community infections, as well as their frequency distributions. Based on the mean-field theory, we theoretically analyse these three timescales and their dependence on the average node degree of each community, the transmission parameters and the number of inter-community links, which are in good agreement with simulations, except when the probability of overlaps between successive outbreaks is too large. These findings aid us in better understanding the bursty nature of disease spreading in a local community, and thereby suggesting effective time-dependent control strategies. (paper)

Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Mweya, Clement N; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

2017-07-01

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for Culex pipiens complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors' habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.

Spatial distribution and ecological environment analysis of great gerbil in Xinjiang Plague epidemic foci based on remote sensing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Mengxu; Wang, Juanle; Li, Qun; Cao, Chunxiang

2014-01-01

Yersinia pestis (Plague bacterium) from great gerbil was isolated in 2005 in Xinjiang Dzungarian Basin, which confirmed the presence of the plague epidemic foci. This study analysed the spatial distribution and suitable habitat of great gerbil based on the monitoring data of great gerbil from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as the ecological environment elements obtained from remote sensing products. The results showed that: (1) 88.5% (277/313) of great gerbil distributed in the area of elevation between 200 and 600 meters. (2) All the positive points located in the area with a slope of 0–3 degree, and the sunny tendency on aspect was not obvious. (3) All 313 positive points of great gerbil distributed in the area with an average annual temperature from 5 to 11 °C, and 165 points with an average annual temperature from 7 to 9 °C. (4) 72.8% (228/313) of great gerbil survived in the area with an annual precipitation of 120–200mm. (5) The positive points of great gerbil increased correspondingly with the increasing of NDVI value, but there is no positive point when NDVI is higher than 0.521, indicating the suitability of vegetation for great gerbil. This study explored a broad and important application for the monitoring and prevention of plague using remote sensing and geographic information system

Temperature profile data from XBT casts from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from a World-Wide distribution from 02 January 1990 to 31 December 1995 (NODC Accession 0001268)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — XBT data were collected from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from a World-Wide distribution from 02 January 1990 to 31 December 1995. Data were submitted by the UK Hydrographic...

Worldwide distribution of Total Reflection X-ray Fluorescence instrumentation and its different fields of application: A survey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klockenkämper, Reinhold, E-mail: reinhold.klockenkaemper@isas.de; Bohlen, Alex von

2014-09-01

A survey was carried out with users and manufacturers of Total Reflection X-ray Fluorescence instrumentation in order to demonstrate the worldwide distribution of TXRF equipment and the different fields of applications. In general, TXRF users come from universities and scientific institutes, from working places at synchrotron beam-lines, or laboratories in semiconductor fabs. TXRF instrumentation is distributed in more than 50 countries on six continents and is applied at about 200 institutes and laboratories. The number of running desktop instruments amounts to nearly 300 units. About 60 beamlines run working places dedicated to TXRF. About 300 floor-mounted instruments are estimated to be used in about 150 fabs of the semiconductor industry. In total, 13 different fields of applications could be registered statistically from three different aspects. - Highlights: • According to the survey world maps show the distribution of TXRF equipment. • Nearly 700 individual units are running actually in 57 countries of 6 continents. • Users work at 200 universities, 60 synchrotron-beamlines, and 150 semiconductor fabs. • 13 fields of applications (e.g. environmental, chemical) are evaluated statistically. • Manufacturers, conference members and authors lead to 3 different pie-charts.

Molecular Epidemiological Study of Mumps Epidemics of 2015 in Okinawa, Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuba, Yumani; Kyan, Hisako; Arakaki, Eri; Takara, Taketoshi; Kato, Takashi; Okano, Sho; Oshiro, Yuko; Kudaka, Jun; Kidokoro, Minoru

2017-05-24

Although major mumps epidemics occurred every 4-5 years in Okinawa Prefecture in Japan, no laboratory diagnoses were conducted. A mumps epidemic started in Okinawa in October 2014, and we collected clinical samples from 31 patients in 4 areas (Hokubu, Nanbu, Miyako, and Yaeyama) from July to December 2015, for virus isolation and RT-PCR, whose positive ratios were 52% and 87%, respectively. Phylogenetic analyses showed that all isolates were classified into genotype G, and with one exception, consisted of 2 subgenotypes, Ge (55.6%) and Gw (40.7%), which have been prominent in Japan recently. One isolate was classified in another lineage, which was detected in Japan for the first time, and was similar to a Hong Kong isolate from 2014. Remarkably, the geographic distributions of the 2 major lineages were separated. The Ge viruses were isolated from the main island of Okinawa and the Yaeyama Islands, whereas the Gw isolates were mainly detected from the Miyako Islands. These results suggest that the Ge and Gw mumps viruses mainly caused the mumps epidemics of 2015 in Okinawa, and that they spread independently in separate regions. This is the first report describing the molecular epidemiology of mumps epidemics in Okinawa Prefecture.

Temperature and other data from XBT and MBT casts in a world-wide distribution from 06 March 1958 to 01 April 1958 (NODC Accession 0000336)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature and other data were collected using XBT and MBT casts in a world-wide distribution from March 6, 1958 to April 1, 1958. Data were submitted by Duetsches...

Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

2017-01-01

We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

Modelling control of epidemics spreading by long-range interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dybiec, Bartłomiej; Kleczkowski, Adam; Gilligan, Christopher A

2009-10-06

We have studied the spread of epidemics characterized by a mixture of local and non-local interactions. The infection spreads on a two-dimensional lattice with the fixed nearest neighbour connections. In addition, long-range dynamical links are formed by moving agents (vectors). Vectors perform random walks, with step length distributed according to a thick-tail distribution. Two distributions are considered in this paper, an alpha-stable distribution describing self-similar vector movement, yet characterized by an infinite variance and an exponential power characterized by a large but finite variance. Such long-range interactions are hard to track and make control of epidemics very difficult. We also allowed for cryptic infection, whereby an infected individual on the lattice can be infectious prior to showing any symptoms of infection or disease. To account for such cryptic spread, we considered a control strategy in which not only detected, i.e. symptomatic, individuals but also all individuals within a certain control neighbourhood are treated upon the detection of disease. We show that it is possible to eradicate the disease by using such purely local control measures, even in the presence of long-range jumps. In particular, we show that the success of local control and the choice of the optimal strategy depend in a non-trivial way on the dispersal patterns of the vectors. By characterizing these patterns using the stability index of the alpha-stable distribution to change the power-law behaviour or the exponent characterizing the decay of an exponential power distribution, we show that infection can be successfully contained using relatively small control neighbourhoods for two limiting cases for long-distance dispersal and for vectors that are much more limited in their dispersal range.

Epidemics on adaptive networks with geometric constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Leah; Schwartz, Ira

2008-03-01

When a population is faced with an epidemic outbreak, individuals may modify their social behavior to avoid exposure to the disease. Recent work has considered models in which the contact network is rewired dynamically so that susceptibles avoid contact with infectives. We consider extensions in which the rewiring is subject to constraints that preserve key properties of the social network structure. Constraining to a fixed degree distribution destroys previously observed bistable behavior. The most effective rewiring strategy is found to depend on the spreading rate.

Real-time characterization of partially observed epidemics using surrogate models.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Safta, Cosmin; Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia; Crary, David (Applied Research Associates, Arlington, VA); Sargsyan, Khachik; Cheng, Karen (Applied Research Associates, Arlington, VA)

2011-09-01

We present a statistical method, predicated on the use of surrogate models, for the 'real-time' characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease, that may be available in the early epoch of an ongoing outbreak. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information on the dynamics of the etiologic agent in the affected population e.g., the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and epidemiological parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. In some cases, the inverse problem can be computationally expensive, primarily due to the epidemic simulator used inside the inversion algorithm. We present a method, based on replacing the epidemiological model with computationally inexpensive surrogates, that can reduce the computational time to minutes, without a significant loss of accuracy. The surrogates are created by projecting the output of an epidemiological model on a set of polynomial chaos bases; thereafter, computations involving the surrogate model reduce to evaluations of a polynomial. We find that the epidemic characterizations obtained with the surrogate models is very close to that obtained with the original model. We also find that the number of projections required to construct a surrogate model is O(10)-O(10{sup 2}) less than the number of samples required by the MCMC to construct a stationary posterior distribution; thus, depending upon the epidemiological models in question, it may be possible to omit the offline creation and caching of surrogate models, prior to their use in an inverse problem. The technique is demonstrated on synthetic data as well as

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

2015-01-01

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Liu

Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

Rhodotorula Endogenous Endophthalmitis: A Novel Harbinger of the Injection Drug Epidemic in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Preston M. Luong

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Endogenous endophthalmitis is a rare but feared infectious ocular complication of injection drug use (IDU. The recent opioid epidemic in the United States threatens to increase the incidence of this disease. We report the first case of endogenous endophthalmitis in the United States caused by the emerging fungal pathogen Rhodotorula in an injection drug user which led to no light perception vision (NLP. Worldwide experience with Rhodotorula endogenous endophthalmitis is limited, but existing cases suggest infection by this particular fungal genus has a grim prognosis.

Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis E C Rocha

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Sexual contact patterns, both in their temporal and network structure, can influence the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI. Most previous literature has focused on effects of network topology; few studies have addressed the role of temporal structure. We simulate disease spread using SI and SIR models on an empirical temporal network of sexual contacts in high-end prostitution. We compare these results with several other approaches, including randomization of the data, classic mean-field approaches, and static network simulations. We observe that epidemic dynamics in this contact structure have well-defined, rather high epidemic thresholds. Temporal effects create a broad distribution of outbreak sizes, even if the per-contact transmission probability is taken to its hypothetical maximum of 100%. In general, we conclude that the temporal correlations of our network accelerate outbreaks, especially in the early phase of the epidemics, while the network topology (apart from the contact-rate distribution slows them down. We find that the temporal correlations of sexual contacts can significantly change simulated outbreaks in a large empirical sexual network. Thus, temporal structures are needed alongside network topology to fully understand the spread of STIs. On a side note, our simulations further suggest that the specific type of commercial sex we investigate is not a reservoir of major importance for HIV.

Heterogeneous network epidemics: real-time growth, variance and extinction of infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Ball, Frank; House, Thomas

2017-09-01

Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular choice in theoretical studies since it combines the ability to specify the distribution of the number of contacts (degree) with analytical tractability. Here we consider the early real-time behaviour of the Markovian SIR epidemic model on a configuration model network using a multitype branching process. We find closed-form analytic expressions for the mean and variance of the number of infectious individuals as a function of time and the degree of the initially infected individual(s), and write down a system of differential equations for the probability of extinction by time t that are numerically fast compared to Monte Carlo simulation. We show that these quantities are all sensitive to the degree distribution-in particular we confirm that the mean prevalence of infection depends on the first two moments of the degree distribution and the variance in prevalence depends on the first three moments of the degree distribution. In contrast to most existing analytic approaches, the accuracy of these results does not depend on having a large number of infectious individuals, meaning that in the large population limit they would be asymptotically exact even for one initial infectious individual.

Large epidemic thresholds emerge in heterogeneous networks of heterogeneous nodes

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hui; Tang, Ming; Gross, Thilo

2015-08-01

One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been shown that network heterogeneity, i.e. a broad degree distribution, can lower the epidemic threshold at which epidemics can invade the system. Network heterogeneity can thus allow diseases with lower transmission probabilities to persist and spread. However, it has been pointed out that networks in which the properties of nodes are intrinsically heterogeneous can be very resilient to disease spreading. Heterogeneity in structure can enhance or diminish the resilience of networks with heterogeneous nodes, depending on the correlations between the topological and intrinsic properties. Here, we consider a plausible scenario where people have intrinsic differences in susceptibility and adapt their social network structure to the presence of the disease. We show that the resilience of networks with heterogeneous connectivity can surpass those of networks with homogeneous connectivity. For epidemiology, this implies that network heterogeneity should not be studied in isolation, it is instead the heterogeneity of infection risk that determines the likelihood of outbreaks.

Large epidemic thresholds emerge in heterogeneous networks of heterogeneous nodes.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hui; Tang, Ming; Gross, Thilo

2015-08-21

One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been shown that network heterogeneity, i.e. a broad degree distribution, can lower the epidemic threshold at which epidemics can invade the system. Network heterogeneity can thus allow diseases with lower transmission probabilities to persist and spread. However, it has been pointed out that networks in which the properties of nodes are intrinsically heterogeneous can be very resilient to disease spreading. Heterogeneity in structure can enhance or diminish the resilience of networks with heterogeneous nodes, depending on the correlations between the topological and intrinsic properties. Here, we consider a plausible scenario where people have intrinsic differences in susceptibility and adapt their social network structure to the presence of the disease. We show that the resilience of networks with heterogeneous connectivity can surpass those of networks with homogeneous connectivity. For epidemiology, this implies that network heterogeneity should not be studied in isolation, it is instead the heterogeneity of infection risk that determines the likelihood of outbreaks.

[Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

Science.gov (United States)

Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

2013-01-01

Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

2014-11-21

On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanling Lu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

2010-03-01

Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

Epidemic processes in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

2015-07-01

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

Epidemic spreading in annealed directed networks: susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Sungchul; Kim, Yup

2013-01-01

We investigate epidemic spreading in annealed directed scale-free networks with the in-degree (k) distribution P(in)(k)~k(-γ(in)) and the out-degree (ℓ) distribution, P(out)(ℓ)~ℓ(-γ(out)). The correlation of each node on the networks is controlled by the probability r(0≤r≤1) in two different algorithms, the so-called k and ℓ algorithms. For r=1, the k algorithm gives =, whereas the ℓ algorithm gives =. For r=0, = for both algorithms. As the prototype of epidemic spreading, the susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process on the networks are analyzed using the heterogeneous mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulations. The directedness of links and the correlation of the network are found to play important roles in the spreading, so that critical behaviors of both models are distinct from those on undirected scale-free networks.

An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-04-01

As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

Basic definitions for discrete modeling of computer worms epidemics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro Guevara López

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The information technologies have evolved in such a way that communication between computers or hosts has become common, so much that the worldwide organization (governments and corporations depends on it; what could happen if these computers stop working for a long time is catastrophic. Unfortunately, networks are attacked by malware such as viruses and worms that could collapse the system. This has served as motivation for the formal study of computer worms and epidemics to develop strategies for prevention and protection; this is why in this paper, before analyzing epidemiological models, a set of formal definitions based on set theory and functions is proposed for describing 21 concepts used in the study of worms. These definitions provide a basis for future qualitative research on the behavior of computer worms, and quantitative for the study of their epidemiological models.

Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

2007-01-01

Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

Temperature profiles from MBT casts from a World-Wide distribution from the ALASKA and other platforms from 1943-02-02 to 1964-10-10 (NODC Accession 9200027)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected from MBT casts from a a World-Wide distribution. Data were collected from the ALASKA and other platforms from 02 February...

Depth, chlorophyll, and total pigment data were collected using bottle casts in a world-wide distribution from 16 March 1997 to 30 January 1998 (NODC Accession 0000292)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Depth, chlorophyll, and total pigment data were collected using bottle casts from TIOGA and other platforms in a world-wide distribution from March 16, 1997 to...

Effects of contact network structure on epidemic transmission trees: implications for data required to estimate network structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2018-01-30

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is key to developing effective interventions to control or prevent an epidemic. The structure of the network of contacts over which the disease spreads has been shown to have a strong influence on the outcome of the epidemic, but an open question remains as to whether it is possible to estimate contact network features from data collected in an epidemic. The approach taken in this paper is to examine the distributions of epidemic outcomes arising from epidemics on networks with particular structural features to assess whether that structure could be measured from epidemic data and what other constraints might be needed to make the problem identifiable. To this end, we vary the network size, mean degree, and transmissibility of the pathogen, as well as the network feature of interest: clustering, degree assortativity, or attribute-based preferential mixing. We record several standard measures of the size and spread of the epidemic, as well as measures that describe the shape of the transmission tree in order to ascertain whether there are detectable signals in the final data from the outbreak. The results suggest that there is potential to estimate contact network features from transmission trees or pure epidemic data, particularly for diseases with high transmissibility or for which the relevant contact network is of low mean degree. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in west Africa.

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Benjamin Sultan

2005-01-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Every year West African countries within the Sahelo-Sudanian band are afflicted with major meningococcal meningitis (MCM disease outbreaks, which affect up to 200,000 people, mainly young children, in one of the world's poorest regions. The timing of the epidemic year, which starts in February and ends in late May, and the spatial distribution of disease cases throughout the "Meningitis Belt" strongly indicate a close linkage between the life cycle of the causative agent of MCM and climate variability. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly identified. METHODS AND FINDINGS: By comparing the information on cases and deaths of MCM from World Health Organization weekly reports with atmospheric datasets, we quantified the relationship between the seasonal occurrence of MCM in Mali, a West African country, and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Regional atmospheric indexes based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and climate: the onset of epidemics and the winter maximum defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean week (sixth week of the year; standard deviation, 2 wk and are highly correlated. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first that provides a clear, quantitative demonstration of the connections that exist between MCM epidemics and regional climate variability in Africa. Moreover, this statistically robust explanation of the MCM dynamics enables the development of an Early Warning Index for meningitis epidemic onset in West Africa. The development of such an index will undoubtedly help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control MCM disease within the so-called westward-eastward pan-African Meningitis Belt.

Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

2015-11-01

Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

Phylogenetic analysis of canine distemper virus in South America clade 1 reveals unique molecular signatures of the local epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Cristine D B; Gräf, Tiago; Ikuta, Nilo; Lehmann, Fernanda K M; Passos, Daniel T; Makiejczuk, Aline; Silveira, Marcos A T; Fonseca, André S K; Canal, Cláudio W; Lunge, Vagner R

2016-07-01

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a highly contagious pathogen for domestic dogs and several wild carnivore species. In Brazil, natural infection of CDV in dogs is very high due to the large non-vaccinated dog population, a scenario that calls for new studies on the molecular epidemiology. This study investigates the phylodynamics and amino-acid signatures of CDV epidemic in South America by analyzing a large dataset compiled from publicly available sequences and also by collecting new samples from Brazil. A population of 175 dogs with canine distemper (CD) signs was sampled, from which 89 were positive for CDV, generating 42 new CDV sequences. Phylogenetic analysis of the new and publicly available sequences revealed that Brazilian sequences mainly clustered in South America 1 (SA1) clade, which has its origin estimated to the late 1980's. The reconstruction of the demographic history in SA1 clade showed an epidemic expanding until the recent years, doubling in size every nine years. SA1 clade epidemic distinguished from the world CDV epidemic by the emergence of the R580Q strain, a very rare and potentially detrimental substitution in the viral genome. The R580Q substitution was estimated to have happened in one single evolutionary step in the epidemic history in SA1 clade, emerging shortly after introduction to the continent. Moreover, a high prevalence (11.9%) of the Y549H mutation was observed among the domestic dogs sampled here. This finding was associated (p<0.05) with outcome-death and higher frequency in mixed-breed dogs, the later being an indicator of a continuous exchange of CDV strains circulating among wild carnivores and domestic dogs. The results reported here highlight the diversity of the worldwide CDV epidemic and reveal local features that can be valuable for combating the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution of take-home opioid antagonist kits during a synthetic opioid epidemic in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael A Irvine, PhD

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Summary: Background: Illicit use of high-potency synthetic opioids has become a global issue over the past decade. This misuse is particularly pronounced in British Columbia, Canada, where a rapid increase in availability of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids in the local illicit drug supply during 2016 led to a substantial increase in overdoses and deaths. In response, distribution of take-home naloxone (THN overdose prevention kits was scaled up (6·4-fold increase throughout the province. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of the THN programme in terms of the number of deaths averted over the study period. Methods: We estimated the impact of THN kits on the ongoing epidemic among people who use illicit opioids in British Columbia and explored counterfactual scenarios for the provincial response. A Markov chain model was constructed explicitly including opioid-related deaths, fentanyl-related deaths, ambulance-attended overdoses, and uses of THN kits. The model was calibrated in a Bayesian framework incorporating population data between Jan 1, 2012, and Oct 31, 2016. Findings: 22 499 ambulance-attended overdoses and 2121 illicit drug-related deaths (677 [32%] deaths related to fentanyl were recorded in the study period, mostly since January, 2016. In the same period, 19 074 THN kits were distributed. We estimate that 298 deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 91–474 were averted by the THN programme. Of these deaths, 226 (95% CrI 125–340 were averted in 2016, following a rapid scale-up in distribution of kits. We infer a rapid increase in fentanyl adulterant at the beginning of 2016, with an estimated 2·3 times (95% CrI 2·0–2·9 increase from 2015 to 2016. Counterfactual modelling indicated that an earlier scale-up of the programme would have averted an additional 118 deaths (95% CrI 64–207. Our model also indicated that the increase in deaths could parsimoniously be explained through a change in the fentanyl

A network-based meta-population approach to model Rift Valley fever epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Ling; Scott, H Morgan; Cohnstaedt, Lee W; Scoglio, Caterina

2012-08-07

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has been expanding its geographical distribution with important implications for both human and animal health. The emergence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Middle East, and its continuing presence in many areas of Africa, has negatively impacted both medical and veterinary infrastructures and human morbidity, mortality, and economic endpoints. Furthermore, worldwide attention should be directed towards the broader infection dynamics of RVFV, because suitable host, vector and environmental conditions for additional epidemics likely exist on other continents; including Asia, Europe and the Americas. We propose a new compartmentalized model of RVF and the related ordinary differential equations to assess disease spread in both time and space; with the latter driven as a function of contact networks. Humans and livestock hosts and two species of vector mosquitoes are included in the model. The model is based on weighted contact networks, where nodes of the networks represent geographical regions and the weights represent the level of contact between regional pairings for each set of species. The inclusion of human, animal, and vector movements among regions is new to RVF modeling. The movement of the infected individuals is not only treated as a possibility, but also an actuality that can be incorporated into the model. We have tested, calibrated, and evaluated the model using data from the recent 2010 RVF outbreak in South Africa as a case study; mapping the epidemic spread within and among three South African provinces. An extensive set of simulation results shows the potential of the proposed approach for accurately modeling the RVF spreading process in additional regions of the world. The benefits of the proposed model are twofold: not only can the model differentiate the maximum number of infected individuals among different provinces, but also it can reproduce the different starting times of the outbreak in multiple locations

Temperature profile data from MBT casts from NAUKA and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 26 July 1966 to 09 September 1990 (NODC Accession 0000228)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using MBT casts in a World-wide distribution from the NAUKA, FIOLENT, LESNOYE, and other platforms from 26 July 1966 to 09...

Worldwide energy prospects and nuclear contribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-04-01

With a growing up worldwide population and a better standard of living, the global energy consumption will rise. The CO 2 emissions will increase too because of todays share of fossil fuels in the energy sources. This paper analyzes the possible contribution of nuclear energy in this context: economical and environmental aspects, political aspects (distribution of energy resources, energy dependence), energy efficiency, reduction of CO 2 emissions. (J.S.)

The threshold of a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Fengrong; Zhang, Xinhong

2018-02-01

In this paper, a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect in human population and saturation effect within avian population is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among avian population and human population in random environments. For stochastic avian-only system, persistence in the mean and extinction of the infected avian population are studied. For the avian-human influenza epidemic system, sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution are obtained. Furthermore, a threshold of this stochastic model which determines the outcome of the disease is obtained. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

2012-03-23

A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

Temperature profile data from MBT casts from NAUKA and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 18 June 1970 to 05 May 1989 (NODC Accession 0000229)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using MBT casts in a World-wide distribution from the NAUKA, AELITA, LESNOYE, and other platforms from 18 June 1970 to 05 May...

Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Ben

2016-03-07

A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental heterogeneity and variations in the velocity of bluetongue virus spread in six European epidemics.

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Nicolas, Gaëlle; Tisseuil, Clément; Conte, Annamaria; Allepuz, Alberto; Pioz, Maryline; Lancelot, Renaud; Gilbert, Marius

2018-01-01

Several epidemics caused by different bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes occurred in European ruminants since the early 2000. Studies on the spatial distribution of these vector-borne infections and the main vector species highlighted contrasted eco-climatic regions characterized by different dominant vector species. However, little work was done regarding the factors associated with the velocity of these epidemics. In this study, we aimed to quantify and compare the velocity of BTV epidemic that have affected different European countries under contrasted eco-climatic conditions and to relate these estimates to spatial factors such as temperature and host density. We used the thin plate spline regression interpolation method in combination with trend surface analysis to quantify the local velocity of different epidemics that have affected France (BTV-8 2007-2008, BTV-1 2008-2009), Italy (BTV-1 2014), Andalusia in Spain (BTV-1 2007) and the Balkans (BTV-4 2014). We found significant differences in the local velocity of BTV spread according to the country and epidemics, ranging from 7.9km/week (BTV-1 2014 Italy) to 24.4km/week (BTV-1 2008 France). We quantify and discuss the effect of temperature and local host density on this velocity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-06-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

[MANIFESTATIONS OF EPIDEMIC PROCESS AND TRANSMISSION ROUTES OF CAUSATIVE AGENT OF ENTEROVIRUS SEROUS MENINGITIS].

Science.gov (United States)

Sergevnin, V I; Tryasolobova, M A; Kudrevatykh, E V; Kuzovnikova, E Zh

2015-01-01

Study the manifestations of epidemic process and leading transmission routes of causative agents of enterovirus serous meningitis (SM) by results of laboratory studies and epidemiologic examination of epidemic nidi. During 2010 - 2014 a study for enterovirus was carried out in cerebrospinal fluid in 743 patients, hospitalized into medical organizations of Perm with primary diagnosis "serous meningitis", feces of 426 individuals, that had communicated with patients with SM of enterovirus etiology; 827 water samples from the distribution network, 295 water samples from open water and 57 washes from surface of vegetables and fruits. All the samples were studied in polymerase chain reaction, part--by a virological method. Epidemiologic examination of 350 epidemic nidi of SM was carried out. Enterovirus and (or) its RNA were detected in 62.0% of patients and 61.9% of individuals that had communicated with patients with enteroviris SM. ECHO 6 serotype enterovirus dominated among the causative agents. Maximum intensity of epidemic process of enterovirus SM, based on data from laboratory examination of patients, was detected in a group of organized pre-school and school age children during summer-autumn period. . Examination of epidemic nidi and laboratory control of environmental objects have shown that CV causative agent transmission factors are, in particular, unboiled water from decentralized sources (boreholes, wells, springs), water from open waters during bathing, as well as fresh vegetables, fruits, berries and meals produced from them. .

Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

McKelvie William R

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

Configuring the autism epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

2017-01-01

Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

Yellow fever in the Americas: the growing concern about new epidemics [version 2; referees: 2 approved

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Yeimer Ortiz-Martínez

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Yellow fever (YF is a haemorrhagic viral disease with a high case fatality rate. It is considered a reemerging infectious disease of remarkable importance. During the last outbreaks in Brazil (2016-2017, many cases of YF emerged despite high YF vaccination coverage in some areas. However, there are many areas and populations worldwide where vaccination coverage has been low for years (e.g. Nigeria, which increases the risk of major epidemics in such areas, as would be the case in many of the American territories. Several factors, including the vast border and migratory status of Brazil, the widespread distribution of Aedes mosquitoes and the lack of efficient health policies and surveillance systems, favor this complex epidemiological scenario of reemergence. Therefore, mass vaccination of the population at risk, public health awareness and preparedness are urgently needed in this region. This opinion article describes the current global epidemiological situation of YF, focusing especially on the Americas, as well the risk and vulnerabilities in the region that would be of concern for major expansion to other countries apart from Brazil. Also, imported risk from endemic area outside of Americas (i.e. Africa are of current concern.

Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

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Xiujuan Tang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith

2017-07-20

We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

The worldwide epidemic of diabetic retinopathy

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Yingfeng Zheng

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Diabetic retinopathy (DR, a major microvascular complication of diabetes, has a significant impact on the world′s health systems. Globally, the number of people with DR will grow from 126.6 million in 2010 to 191.0 million by 2030, and we estimate that the number with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR will increase from 37.3 million to 56.3 million, if prompt action is not taken. Despite growing evidence documenting the effectiveness of routine DR screening and early treatment, DR frequently leads to poor visual functioning and represents the leading cause of blindness in working-age populations. DR has been neglected in health-care research and planning in many low-income countries, where access to trained eye-care professionals and tertiary eye-care services may be inadequate. Demand for, as well as, supply of services may be a problem. Rates of compliance with diabetes medications and annual eye examinations may be low, the reasons for which are multifactorial. Innovative and comprehensive approaches are needed to reduce the risk of vision loss by prompt diagnosis and early treatment of VTDR.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-06-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-01-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

Searching for the corner seismic moment in worldwide data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Felgueiras, Miguel; Santos, Rui; Martins, João Paulo

2015-01-01

In this paper the existence of the corner frequency value for the seismic moment distribution is investigated, analysing worldwide data. Pareto based distributions, usually considered as the most suitable to this type of data, are fitted to the most recent data, available in a global earthquake catalog. Despite the undeniable finite nature of the seismic moment data, we conclude that no corner frequency can be established considering the available data set

Social and economic influences on human behavioural response in an emerging epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Phang, P.; Wiwatanapataphee, B.; Wu, Y. H.

2017-10-01

The human behavioural changes have been recognized as an important key in shaping the disease spreading and determining the success of control measures in the course of epidemic outbreaks. However, apart from cost-benefit considerations, in reality, people are heterogeneous in their preferences towards adopting certain protective actions to reduce their risk of infection, and social norms have a function in individuals’ decision making. Here, we studied the interplay between the epidemic dynamics, imitation dynamics and the heterogeneity of individual protective behavioural response under the considerations of both economic and social factors, with a simple mathematical compartmental model and multi-population game dynamical replicator equations. We assume that susceptibles in different subpopulations have different preferences in adopting either normal or altered behaviour. By incorporating both intra- and inter-group social pressure, the outcome of the strategy distribution depends on the initial proportion of susceptible with normal and altered strategies in both subpopulations. The increase of additional cost to susceptible with altered behaviour will discourage people to take up protective actions and hence results in higher epidemic final size. For a specific cost of altered behaviour, the social group pressure could be a “double edge sword”, though. We conclude that the interplays between individual protective behaviour adoption, imitation and epidemic dynamics are necessarily complex if both economic and social factors act on populations with existing preferences.

Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vlad Novitsky

2015-12-01

Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

Molecular markers for tracking the origin and worldwide distribution of invasive strains of Puccinia striiformis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Walter, Stephanie; Ali, Sajid; Kemen, Eric

2016-01-01

.g., the spreading of two aggressive and high temperature adapted strains to three continents since 2000. The combination of sequence-characterized amplified region (SCAR) markers, which were developed from two specific AFLP fragments, differentiated the two invasive strains, PstS1 and PstS2 from all other P....... striiformis strains investigated at a worldwide level. The application of the SCAR markers on 566 isolates showed that PstS1 was present in East Africa in the early 1980s and then detected in the Americas in 2000 and in Australia in 2002. PstS2 which evolved from PstS1 became widespread in the Middle East...... as the most plausible origin of the two invasive strains. The SCAR markers developed in the present study provide a rapid, inexpensive, and efficient tool to track the distribution of P. striiformis invasive strains, PstS1 and PstS2....

Large heterogeneity of the obesity epidemic in Danish adults

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heitmann, B.L.; Strøger, U.; Mikkelsen, K.L.

2004-01-01

group, except for an increasing trend among men aged 50 years and above. CONCLUSION: Although the overall Danish trend for obesity prevalence, similar to trends world-wide, showed a marked increase, the trend was very heterogeneous and generally neither uniform nor significantly positive; the changes......OBJECTIVE: To examine to what extent the obesity epidemic is a general phenomenon in adults by assessing the secular change, by birth cohort and age, in the prevalence of obesity and median body mass index (BMI) in Danish men and women measured between 1964 and 1994. DESIGN: Multiple cross......-sectional population surveys. SETTING: The greater Copenhagen area of Denmark. SUBJECTS: The study included 17,065 men (30 336 observations) and 13,417 women (24,065 observations), aged 20-84 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Trends in median BMI and prevalence of obesity estimated from measured height and weight in 10...

[Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

Science.gov (United States)

Sabbatani, Sergio

2003-03-01

When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

2016-09-13

Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia

2011-09-01

In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of

Worldwide electricity used in data centers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koomey, Jonathan G

2008-01-01

The direct electricity used by data centers has become an important issue in recent years as demands for new Internet services (such as search, music downloads, video-on-demand, social networking, and telephony) have become more widespread. This study estimates historical electricity used by data centers worldwide and regionally on the basis of more detailed data than were available for previous assessments, including electricity used by servers, data center communications, and storage equipment. Aggregate electricity use for data centers doubled worldwide from 2000 to 2005. Three quarters of this growth was the result of growth in the number of the least expensive (volume) servers. Data center communications and storage equipment each contributed about 10% of the growth. Total electricity use grew at an average annual rate of 16.7% per year, with the Asia Pacific region (without Japan) being the only major world region with growth significantly exceeding that average. Direct electricity used by information technology equipment in data centers represented about 0.5% of total world electricity consumption in 2005. When electricity for cooling and power distribution is included, that figure is about 1%. Worldwide data center power demand in 2005 was equivalent (in capacity terms) to about seventeen 1000 MW power plants.

Worldwide electricity used in data centers

Science.gov (United States)

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2008-07-01

The direct electricity used by data centers has become an important issue in recent years as demands for new Internet services (such as search, music downloads, video-on-demand, social networking, and telephony) have become more widespread. This study estimates historical electricity used by data centers worldwide and regionally on the basis of more detailed data than were available for previous assessments, including electricity used by servers, data center communications, and storage equipment. Aggregate electricity use for data centers doubled worldwide from 2000 to 2005. Three quarters of this growth was the result of growth in the number of the least expensive (volume) servers. Data center communications and storage equipment each contributed about 10% of the growth. Total electricity use grew at an average annual rate of 16.7% per year, with the Asia Pacific region (without Japan) being the only major world region with growth significantly exceeding that average. Direct electricity used by information technology equipment in data centers represented about 0.5% of total world electricity consumption in 2005. When electricity for cooling and power distribution is included, that figure is about 1%. Worldwide data center power demand in 2005 was equivalent (in capacity terms) to about seventeen 1000 MW power plants.

Air/delta/sea surface temperature, pressure, and other data from MISS GAIL in a world-wide distribution from 21 October 1957 to 18 April 1961 (NODC Accession 0000366)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Air/delta/sea surface temperature, pressure, and other data were collected from the MISS GAIL in a world-wide distribution from October 21, 1957 to April 18, 1961....

Zika virus: Endemic and epidemic ranges of Aedes mosquito transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David F. Attaway

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Summary: As evidence linking Zika virus with serious health complications strengthens, public health officials and clinicians worldwide need to know which locations are likely to be at risk for autochthonous Zika infections. We created risk maps for epidemic and endemic Aedes-borne Zika virus infections globally using a predictive analysis method that draws on temperature, precipitation, elevation, land cover, and population density variables to identify locations suitable for mosquito activity seasonally or year-round. Aedes mosquitoes capable of transmitting Zika and other viruses are likely to live year-round across many tropical areas in the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Our map provides an enhanced global projection of where vector control initiatives may be most valuable for reducing the risk of Zika virus and other Aedes-borne infections. Keywords: Geographic information systems, Geographic information science, Risk mapping, Zika, Aedes modeling

Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel E Leventhal

Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

2005-02-01

Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

Global Dynamics of Infectious Disease with Arbitrary Distributed Infectious Period on Complex Networks

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Xiaoguang Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Most of the current epidemic models assume that the infectious period follows an exponential distribution. However, due to individual heterogeneity and epidemic diversity, these models fail to describe the distribution of infectious periods precisely. We establish a SIS epidemic model with multistaged progression of infectious periods on complex networks, which can be used to characterize arbitrary distributions of infectious periods of the individuals. By using mathematical analysis, the basic reproduction number R0 for the model is derived. We verify that the R0 depends on the average distributions of infection periods for different types of infective individuals, which extend the general theory obtained from the single infectious period epidemic models. It is proved that if R0<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; otherwise the unique endemic equilibrium exists such that it is globally asymptotically attractive. Finally numerical simulations hold for the validity of our theoretical results is given.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

2014-06-15

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-01-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

Temperature profiles from XBT casts from a world-wide distribution from the EMERALD INDAH and other platforms from 28 November 2000 to 29 May 2001 (NODC Accession 0000465)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — XBT and other data were collected from a world-wide distribution from the EMERALD INDAH and other platforms from 28 November 2000 to 29 May 2001. Data were submitted...

A Descriptive Overview of the Burden, Distribution and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The purpose of this study was to describe the distribution, magnitude and characteristics of recent epidemics in Uganda, as a basis for informing policy on priorities for targeted prevention of epidemics. Methods: Qualitative and quantitative data was collected from the Epidemiological Surveillance Division of the Ministry of ...

Prevalence and trends of the diabetes epidemic in South Asia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

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Jayawardena Ranil

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Diabetes mellitus has reached epidemic proportions worldwide. South Asians are known to have an increased predisposition for diabetes which has become an important health concern in the region. We discuss the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes in South Asia and explore the differential risk factors reported. Methods Prevalence data were obtained by searching the Medline® database with; ‘prediabetes’ and ‘diabetes mellitus’ (MeSH major topic and ‘Epidemology/EP’ (MeSH subheading. Search limits were articles in English, between 01/01/1980–31/12/2011, on human adults (≥19 years. The conjunction of the above results was narrowed down with country names. Results The most recent reported prevalence of pre-diabetes:diabetes in regional countries were; Bangladesh–4.7%:8.5% (2004–2005;Rural, India–4.6%:12.5% (2007;Rural; Maldives–3.0%:3.7% (2004;National, Nepal–19.5%:9.5% (2007;Urban, Pakistan–3.0%:7.2% (2002;Rural, Sri Lanka–11.5%:10.3% (2005–2006;National. Urban populations demonstrated a higher prevalence of diabetes. An increasing trend in prevalence of diabetes was observed in urban/rural India and rural Sri Lanka. The diabetes epidemicity index decreased with the increasing prevalence of diabetes in respective countries. A high epidemicity index was seen in Sri Lanka (2005/2006–52.8%, while for other countries, the epidemicity index was comparatively low (rural India 2007–26.9%; urban India 2002/2005–31.3%, and urban Bangladesh–33.1%. Family history, urban residency, age, higher BMI, sedentary lifestyle, hypertension and waist-hip ratio were associated with an increased risks of diabetes. Conclusion A significant epidemic of diabetes is present in the South Asian region with a rapid increase in prevalence over the last two decades. Hence there is a need for urgent preventive and curative strategies .

Can epidemics be non-communicable?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

2015-01-01

This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

2015-01-01

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

Worldwide Report, Epidemiology, No. 327

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

1983-01-01

Partial Contents: Epidemiology, Human Diseases, Health, Malaria, AIDS, Homosexual Male, Medical Administration, Rabies, Tuberculosis, Encephalitis Statistics, Gastroenteritie, Mystery Diseases, Children, Epidemics...

Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Xiao-Pu

2007-01-01

Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

2010-01-01

The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

Permanence for a Delayed Nonautonomous SIR Epidemic Model with Density-Dependent Birth Rate

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Li Yingke

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Based on some well-known SIR models, a revised nonautonomous SIR epidemic model with distributed delay and density-dependent birth rate was considered. Applying some classical analysis techniques for ordinary differential equations and the method proposed by Wang (2002, the threshold value for the permanence and extinction of the model was obtained.

Temperature profile data from XBT casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 1982-05-24 to 1996-03-21 (NODC Accession 9600116)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using XBT casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 24 May 1982 to 21 March 1996....

NPP Tropical Forest: Consistent Worldwide Site Estimates, 1967-1999, R1

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains documented field measurements of NPP components for 39 old-growth tropical forests distributed worldwide between latitudes 23.58 N and 23.58...

Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

Science.gov (United States)

Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

2004-09-01

A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

Zika virus: Endemic and epidemic ranges of Aedes mosquito transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Attaway, David F; Waters, Nigel M; Geraghty, Estella M; Jacobsen, Kathryn H

As evidence linking Zika virus with serious health complications strengthens, public health officials and clinicians worldwide need to know which locations are likely to be at risk for autochthonous Zika infections. We created risk maps for epidemic and endemic Aedes-borne Zika virus infections globally using a predictive analysis method that draws on temperature, precipitation, elevation, land cover, and population density variables to identify locations suitable for mosquito activity seasonally or year-round. Aedes mosquitoes capable of transmitting Zika and other viruses are likely to live year-round across many tropical areas in the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Our map provides an enhanced global projection of where vector control initiatives may be most valuable for reducing the risk of Zika virus and other Aedes-borne infections. Copyright © 2016 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Historical Epidemics Cartography Generated by Spatial Analysis: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Three Medieval "Plagues" in Dijon

Science.gov (United States)

Galanaud, Pierre; Galanaud, Anne; Giraudoux, Patrick

2015-01-01

Objectives This work was designed to adapt Geographical Information System-based spatial analysis to the study of historical epidemics. We mapped "plague" deaths during three epidemics of the early 15th century, analyzed spatial distributions by applying the Kulldorff's method, and determined their relationships with the distribution of socio-professional categories in the city of Dijon. Materials and Methods Our study was based on a database including 50 annual tax registers (established from 1376 to 1447) indicating deaths and survivors among the heads of households, their home location, tax level and profession. The households of the deceased and survivors during 6 years with excess mortality were individually located on a georeferenced medieval map, established by taking advantage of the preserved geography of the historical center of Dijon. We searched for clusters of heads of households characterized by shared tax levels (high-tax payers, the upper decile; low-tax payers, the half charged at the minimum level) or professional activities and for clusters of differential mortality. Results High-tax payers were preferentially in the northern intramural part, as well as most wealthy or specialized professionals, whereas low-tax payers were preferentially in the southern part. During two epidemics, in 1400–1401 and 1428, areas of higher mortality were found in the northern part whereas areas of lower mortality were in the southern one. A high concentration of housing and the proximity to food stocks were common features of the most affected areas, creating suitable conditions for rats to pullulate. A third epidemic, lasting from 1438 to 1440 had a different and evolving geography: cases were initially concentrated around the southern gate, at the confluence of three rivers, they were then diffuse, and ended with residual foci of deaths in the northern suburb. Conclusion Using a selected historical source, we designed an approach allowing spatial analysis of

A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

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Brauer Fred

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

[Epidemics and pandemics in general practice. What can we learn from the swine flu (H1N1) and EHEC outbreak?].

Science.gov (United States)

Eisele, M; Hansen, H; Wagner, H-O; von Leitner, E; Pohontsch, N; Scherer, M

2014-06-01

As primary care givers with a coordinating function, general practitioners (GP) play a key role in dealing with epidemics and pandemics. As of yet, there are no studies in Germany describing the difficulties experienced by GPs in patient care during epidemics/pandemics. This study aimed at identifying the problem areas in GPs' patient care during the H1N1 and EHEC (enterohemorrhagic strain of Escherichia coli) outbreaks. With this information, recommendations for guaranteeing proper patient care during future epidemics/pandemics can be derived. In all, 12 qualitative, semi-structured, open guideline interviews with GPs in Hamburg and Lübeck were conducted, transcribed, and evaluated with qualitative content analysis. Five areas in ambulatory patient care were identified in which changes are needed from the primary care perspective: provision of information for GPs, workload, financing of epidemic-related measures, organization of the practices, care of those taken ill. The workload of GPs in particular can and should be reduced through successful, centralized information distribution during epidemics/pandemics. The GP's function as a coordinator should be supported and consolidated, in order to relieve the in-patient sector in cases of an epidemic/pandemic. Secured financing of epidemic-associated measures can help ensure patient care.

Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

2009-01-01

Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

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Shu Yang

Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

Fighting the Global Cancer Epidemic through Precise Measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

Cancer has passed heart disease to become the single leading cause of death worldwide. In 2000, there were 10.1 million new cases of cancer and 6.2 million deaths caused by cancer. By 2012, these numbers had risen respectively to 14.1 million and 8.2 million. As the global cancer epidemic continues to spread, the need for effective diagnosis and treatment is growing. Nuclear and other related technologies, such as diagnostic imaging techniques and radiotherapy, are fundamental to diagnosing and treating cancer. Both diagnostic imaging and radiotherapy involve radiation exposure, which can be highly effective for treating patients, but also dangerous to medical staff and patients if not used accurately and safely. Techniques such as medical dosimetry help to ensure the safe use of radiation. Medical dosimetry is a cornerstone of safe and effective cancer diagnosis and treatment. It deals with the measurement of absorbed doses and the optimization of dose delivery in radiation medicine. This includes activities such as audits and the calibration of equipment, the development and dissemination of dosimetry techniques, and the implementation of quality assurance programmes

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

2017-09-08

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

2017-09-01

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Stochastic persistence and stationary distribution in an SIS epidemic model with media coverage

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Wenjuan; Cai, Yongli; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

2018-02-01

This paper aims to study an SIS epidemic model with media coverage from a general deterministic model to a stochastic differential equation with environment fluctuation. Mathematically, we use the Markov semigroup theory to prove that the basic reproduction number R0s can be used to control the dynamics of stochastic system. Epidemiologically, we show that environment fluctuation can inhibit the occurrence of the disease, namely, in the case of disease persistence for the deterministic model, the disease still dies out with probability one for the stochastic model. So to a great extent the stochastic perturbation under media coverage affects the outbreak of the disease.

Temperature profile data from XBT casts from a world-wide distribution from the SEA-LAND NAVIGATOR and other platforms from 21 September 2000 to 18 March 2002 (NODC Accession 0000696)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profiles were collected by deploying XBT casts from the SEA-LAND NAVIGATOR and other platforms over a world-wide distribution from 21 September 2000 to...

Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raffaele Vardavas

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Paul

2008-09-01

Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

Burst of virus infection and a possibly largest epidemic threshold of non-Markovian susceptible-infected-susceptible processes on networks

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qiang; Van Mieghem, Piet

2018-02-01

Since a real epidemic process is not necessarily Markovian, the epidemic threshold obtained under the Markovian assumption may be not realistic. To understand general non-Markovian epidemic processes on networks, we study the Weibullian susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) process in which the infection process is a renewal process with a Weibull time distribution. We find that, if the infection rate exceeds 1 /ln(λ1+1 ) , where λ1 is the largest eigenvalue of the network's adjacency matrix, then the infection will persist on the network under the mean-field approximation. Thus, 1 /ln(λ1+1 ) is possibly the largest epidemic threshold for a general non-Markovian SIS process with a Poisson curing process under the mean-field approximation. Furthermore, non-Markovian SIS processes may result in a multimodal prevalence. As a byproduct, we show that a limiting Weibullian SIS process has the potential to model bursts of a synchronized infection.

Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: methods and validation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy B Hallett

2008-04-01

Full Text Available HIV surveillance of generalised epidemics in Africa primarily relies on prevalence at antenatal clinics, but estimates of incidence in the general population would be more useful. Repeated cross-sectional measures of HIV prevalence are now becoming available for general populations in many countries, and we aim to develop and validate methods that use these data to estimate HIV incidence.Two methods were developed that decompose observed changes in prevalence between two serosurveys into the contributions of new infections and mortality. Method 1 uses cohort mortality rates, and method 2 uses information on survival after infection. The performance of these two methods was assessed using simulated data from a mathematical model and actual data from three community-based cohort studies in Africa. Comparison with simulated data indicated that these methods can accurately estimates incidence rates and changes in incidence in a variety of epidemic conditions. Method 1 is simple to implement but relies on locally appropriate mortality data, whilst method 2 can make use of the same survival distribution in a wide range of scenarios. The estimates from both methods are within the 95% confidence intervals of almost all actual measurements of HIV incidence in adults and young people, and the patterns of incidence over age are correctly captured.It is possible to estimate incidence from cross-sectional prevalence data with sufficient accuracy to monitor the HIV epidemic. Although these methods will theoretically work in any context, we have able to test them only in southern and eastern Africa, where HIV epidemics are mature and generalised. The choice of method will depend on the local availability of HIV mortality data.

Temperature and nutrients data collected using bottle casts from the SKIF and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 06 July 1962 to 08 January 1990 (NODC Accession 0000856)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature and nutrients data were collected using bottle casts in a World-wide distribution from SKIF and other platforms. Data were collected from 06 July 1962 to...

Elevation and cholera: an epidemiological spatial analysis of the cholera epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2008-2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luque Fernandez Miguel A

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In highly populated African urban areas where access to clean water is a challenge, water source contamination is one of the most cited risk factors in a cholera epidemic. During the rainy season, where there is either no sewage disposal or working sewer system, runoff of rains follows the slopes and gets into the lower parts of towns where shallow wells could easily become contaminated by excretes. In cholera endemic areas, spatial information about topographical elevation could help to guide preventive interventions. This study aims to analyze the association between topographic elevation and the distribution of cholera cases in Harare during the cholera epidemic in 2008 and 2009. Methods We developed an ecological study using secondary data. First, we described attack rates by suburb and then calculated rate ratios using whole Harare as reference. We illustrated the average elevation and cholera cases by suburbs using geographical information. Finally, we estimated a generalized linear mixed model (under the assumption of a Poisson distribution with an Empirical Bayesian approach to model the relation between the risk of cholera and the elevation in meters in Harare. We used a random intercept to allow for spatial correlation of neighboring suburbs. Results This study identifies a spatial pattern of the distribution of cholera cases in the Harare epidemic, characterized by a lower cholera risk in the highest elevation suburbs of Harare. The generalized linear mixed model showed that for each 100 meters of increase in the topographical elevation, the cholera risk was 30% lower with a rate ratio of 0.70 (95% confidence interval=0.66-0.76. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the risk reduction with an overall estimate of the rate ratio between 20% and 40%. Conclusion This study highlights the importance of considering topographical elevation as a geographical and environmental risk factor in order to plan cholera preventive

Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

2015-09-01

Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

2013-06-01

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

Science.gov (United States)

Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

2013-01-01

Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

2015-12-01

Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christel Kamp

Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

2014-11-13

Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

OpenAIRE

Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

2017-01-01

Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Joel C.

2009-08-01

The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

Pain Therapy Guided by Purpose and Perspective in Light of the Opioid Epidemic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amie L. Severino

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Prescription opioid misuse is an ongoing and escalating epidemic. Although these pharmacological agents are highly effective analgesics prescribed for different types of pain, opioids also induce euphoria, leading to increasing diversion and misuse. Opioid use and related mortalities have developed in spite of initial claims that OxyContin, one of the first opioids prescribed in the USA, was not addictive in the presence of pain. These claims allayed the fears of clinicians and contributed to an increase in the number of prescriptions, quantity of drugs manufactured, and the unforeseen diversion of these drugs for non-medical uses. Understanding the history of opioid drug development, the widespread marketing campaign for opioids, the immense financial incentive behind the treatment of pain, and vulnerable socioeconomic and physical demographics for opioid misuse give perspective on the current epidemic as an American-born problem that has expanded to global significance. In light of the current worldwide opioid epidemic, it is imperative that novel opioids are developed to treat pain without inducing the euphoria that fosters physical dependence and addiction. We describe insights from preclinical findings on the properties of opioid drugs that offer insights into improving abuse-deterrent formulations. One finding is that the ability of some agonists to activate one pathway over another, or agonist bias, can predict whether several novel opioid compounds bear promise in treating pain without causing reward among other off-target effects. In addition, we outline how the pharmacokinetic profile of each opioid contributes to their potential for misuse and discuss the emergence of mixed agonists as a promising pipeline of opioid-based analgesics. These insights from preclinical findings can be used to more effectively identify opioids that treat pain without causing physical dependence and subsequent opioid abuse.

Pain Therapy Guided by Purpose and Perspective in Light of the Opioid Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Severino, Amie L.; Shadfar, Arash; Hakimian, Joshua K.; Crane, Oliver; Singh, Ganeev; Heinzerling, Keith; Walwyn, Wendy M.

2018-01-01

Prescription opioid misuse is an ongoing and escalating epidemic. Although these pharmacological agents are highly effective analgesics prescribed for different types of pain, opioids also induce euphoria, leading to increasing diversion and misuse. Opioid use and related mortalities have developed in spite of initial claims that OxyContin, one of the first opioids prescribed in the USA, was not addictive in the presence of pain. These claims allayed the fears of clinicians and contributed to an increase in the number of prescriptions, quantity of drugs manufactured, and the unforeseen diversion of these drugs for non-medical uses. Understanding the history of opioid drug development, the widespread marketing campaign for opioids, the immense financial incentive behind the treatment of pain, and vulnerable socioeconomic and physical demographics for opioid misuse give perspective on the current epidemic as an American-born problem that has expanded to global significance. In light of the current worldwide opioid epidemic, it is imperative that novel opioids are developed to treat pain without inducing the euphoria that fosters physical dependence and addiction. We describe insights from preclinical findings on the properties of opioid drugs that offer insights into improving abuse-deterrent formulations. One finding is that the ability of some agonists to activate one pathway over another, or agonist bias, can predict whether several novel opioid compounds bear promise in treating pain without causing reward among other off-target effects. In addition, we outline how the pharmacokinetic profile of each opioid contributes to their potential for misuse and discuss the emergence of mixed agonists as a promising pipeline of opioid-based analgesics. These insights from preclinical findings can be used to more effectively identify opioids that treat pain without causing physical dependence and subsequent opioid abuse. PMID:29740351

Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

Physical, chemical, meteorological, and nutrients data from bottle casts from a world-wide distribution from the YERMAK and other platforms from 15 January 1873 to 15 June 1967 (NODC Accession 0000505)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Physical, meteorological, and nutrients data were collected from bottle casts from the YERMAK and other platforms from a world-wide distribution from 15 January 1873...

DEVELOPMENT AND WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTION OF THE ANGLO NUBIAN GOAT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelika Stemmer

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The present study describes the formation of the Anglo Nubian breed in Britain and follows up the original transfer of the founder breeds to Britain in the 19th century. An overview on the worldwide spread of the Anglo Nubian from Britain to the USA and Canada, later to Africa and Asia as well as Latin America is given. Information was compiled through project reports, literature, statistical records where available and accessible and interviews with experts. It is concluded that the Anglo Nubian is an example of a breed developed by combining genetic resources from different parts of the world joining performance and adaptation to tropical conditions. The breed spread to all continents. Apart from being kept as purebreds, it is more often used in crossbreeding programmes in different regions of the world. The value of this genetic resource has been recognized a long time ago, but there seem to be no efforts to counteract the danger of loosing it by excessive use in uncontrolled crossbreeding.

Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

2016-01-01

The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

Alzheimer Disease and Its Growing Epidemic: Risk Factors, Biomarkers, and the Urgent Need for Therapeutics.

Science.gov (United States)

Hickman, Richard A; Faustin, Arline; Wisniewski, Thomas

2016-11-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) represents one of the greatest medical challenges of this century; the condition is becoming increasingly prevalent worldwide and no effective treatments have been developed for this terminal disease. Because the disease manifests at a late stage after a long period of clinically silent neurodegeneration, knowledge of the modifiable risk factors and the implementation of biomarkers is crucial in the primary prevention of the disease and presymptomatic detection of AD, respectively. This article discusses the growing epidemic of AD and antecedent risk factors in the disease process. Disease biomarkers are discussed, and the implications that this may have for the treatment of this currently incurable disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

Science.gov (United States)

Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

2009-03-01

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

OpenAIRE

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-01-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

The Efficacy of Epidemic Algorithms on Detecting Node Replicas in Wireless Sensor Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Narasimha Shashidhar

2015-12-01

Full Text Available A node replication attack against a wireless sensor network involves surreptitious efforts by an adversary to insert duplicate sensor nodes into the network while avoiding detection. Due to the lack of tamper-resistant hardware and the low cost of sensor nodes, launching replication attacks takes little effort to carry out. Naturally, detecting these replica nodes is a very important task and has been studied extensively. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed, randomized sensor duplicate detection algorithm called Discard to detect node replicas in group-deployed wireless sensor networks. Our protocol is an epidemic, self-organizing duplicate detection scheme, which exhibits emergent properties. Epidemic schemes have found diverse applications in distributed computing: load balancing, topology management, audio and video streaming, computing aggregate functions, failure detection, network and resource monitoring, to name a few. To the best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first attempt at exploring the potential of this paradigm to detect replicas in a wireless sensor network. Through analysis and simulation, we show that our scheme achieves robust replica detection with substantially lower communication, computational and storage requirements than prior schemes in the literature.

Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Christakos, G.; Olea, R.A.; Yu, H.-L.

2007-01-01

Background: This work demonstrates the importance of spatiotemporal stochastic modelling in constructing maps of major epidemics from fragmentary information, assessing population impacts, searching for possible etiologies, and performing comparative analysis of epidemics. Methods: Based on the theory previously published by the authors and incorporating new knowledge bases, informative maps of the composite space-time distributions were generated for important characteristics of two major epidemics: Black Death (14th century Western Europe) and bubonic plague (19th-20th century Indian subcontinent). Results: The comparative spatiotemporal analysis of the epidemics led to a number of interesting findings: (1) the two epidemics exhibited certain differences in their spatiotemporal characteristics (correlation structures, trends, occurrence patterns and propagation speeds) that need to be explained by means of an interdisciplinary effort; (2) geographical epidemic indicators confirmed in a rigorous quantitative manner the partial findings of isolated reports and time series that Black Death mortality was two orders of magnitude higher than that of bubonic plague; (3) modern bubonic plague is a rural disease hitting harder the small villages in the countryside whereas Black Death was a devastating epidemic that indiscriminately attacked large urban centres and the countryside, and while the epidemic in India lasted uninterruptedly for five decades, in Western Europe it lasted three and a half years; (4) the epidemics had reverse areal extension features in response to annual seasonal variations. Temperature increase at the end of winter led to an expansion of infected geographical area for Black Death and a reduction for bubonic plague, reaching a climax at the end of spring when the infected area in Western Europe was always larger than in India. Conversely, without exception, the infected area during winter was larger for the Indian bubonic plague; (5) during the

Physical and chemical data collected using bottle casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 1911-11-11 to 1990-03-18 (NODC Accession 9600072)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Physical and chemical data were collected using bottle casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 11 November 1911 to 18...

Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wayne T A Enanoria

Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

Science.gov (United States)

Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

[Current tuberculosis mortality world-wide].

Science.gov (United States)

Haefliger, E; Rieder, H L

1992-04-21

The mortality rate still is an important index for assessment of tuberculosis. Statistical records are kept on the mortality rate on a worldwide basis--more than in the case of other tuberculosis parameters. They allow us to make valuable comparisons. They are also useful because the mortality is closely related to the morbidity. The present thesis is based on comparative figures from the 1989 volume of the WHO Health Statistics Annual. Various countries have been specially selected by the publisher--and subsequently also by us--for sake of clarity. The figures vary strongly within these countries, which was to be expected. The mortality rate varies in Europe (for each 100,000 residents) e.g. from 0.2 in the Netherlands to 8.15 in the Soviet Union. In the Americas the rates vary from 0.4 for Canada to 12.9 for Ecuador. In the Western Pacific region the mortality rates vary from 0.35 for Australia to 14.65 for China. On a worldwide basis, the share of deaths from tuberculosis among all causes of death varies from 0.02% in the Netherlands to 2.10% in the Republic of Korea. The relation of tuberculosis deaths with regard to sexes in Switzerland: 75.7% men, 24.3% women, which is more or less the European average. The lower the mortality rate for tuberculosis are, the lower the difference between the sexes appears to be. Similar facts are found with regard to the distribution of tuberculosis deaths according to age groups: the lower the tuberculosis rate, the more tuberculosis is found in older age groups. The tuberculosis deaths are percentage-wise similarly distributed to the respiratory organs and the other tuberculosis forms.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The AIDS epidemic and economic input impact factors in Chongqing, China, from 2006 to 2012: a spatial-temporal analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yanqi; Xiao, Qin; Zhou, Liang; Ma, Dihui; Liu, Ling; Lu, Rongrong; Yi, Dali; Yi, Dong

2015-03-27

To analyse the spatial-temporal clustering of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Chongqing and to explore its association with the economic indices of AIDS prevention and treatment. Data on the HIV/AIDS epidemic and economic indices of AIDS prevention and treatment were obtained from the annual reports of the Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control for 2006-2012. Spatial clustering analysis, temporal-spatial clustering analysis, and spatial regression were used to conduct statistical analysis. The annual average new HIV infection rate, incidence rate for new AIDS cases, and rate of people living with HIV in Chongqing were 5.97, 2.42 and 28.12 per 100,000, respectively, for 2006-2012. The HIV/AIDS epidemic showed a non-random spatial distribution (Moran's I≥0.310; p<0.05). The epidemic hotspots were distributed in the 15 mid-western counties. The most likely clusters were primarily located in the central region and southwest of Chongqing and occurred in 2010-2012. The regression coefficients of the total amount of special funds allocated to AIDS and to the public awareness unit for the numbers of new HIV cases, new AIDS cases, and people living with HIV were 0.775, 0.976 and 0.816, and -0.188, -0.259 and -0.215 (p<0.002), respectively. The Chongqing HIV/AIDS epidemic showed temporal-spatial clustering and was mainly clustered in the mid-western and south-western counties, showing an upward trend over time. The amount of special funds dedicated to AIDS and to the public awareness unit showed positive and negative relationships with HIV/AIDS spatial clustering, respectively. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The Obesity Epidemic

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2011-07-18

Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

2016-04-01

There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

2016-04-01

There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

2009-03-01

We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Eames, K T D

2014-09-01

The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

Agent-based and phylogenetic analyses reveal how HIV-1 moves between risk groups: injecting drug users sustain the heterosexual epidemic in Latvia

Science.gov (United States)

Graw, Frederik; Leitner, Thomas; Ribeiro, Ruy M.

2012-01-01

Injecting drug users (IDU) are a driving force for the spread of HIV-1 in Latvia and other Baltic States, accounting for a majority of cases. However, in recent years, heterosexual cases have increased disproportionately. It is unclear how the changes in incidence patterns in Latvia can be explained, and how important IDU are for the heterosexual sub-epidemic. We introduce a novel epidemic model and use phylogenetic analyses in parallel to examine the spread of HIV-1 in Latvia between 1987 and 2010. Using a hybrid framework with a mean-field description for the susceptible population and an agent-based model for the infecteds, we track infected individuals and follow transmission histories dynamically formed during the simulation. The agent-based simulations and the phylogenetic analysis show that more than half of the heterosexual transmissions in Latvia were caused by IDU, which sustain the heterosexual epidemic. Indeed, we find that heterosexual clusters are characterized by short transmission chains with up to 63% of the chains dying out after the first introduction. In the simulations, the distribution of transmission chain sizes follows a power law distribution, which is confirmed by the phylogenetic data. Our models indicate that frequent introductions reduced the extinction probability of an autonomously spreading heterosexual HIV-1 epidemic, which now has the potential to dominate the spread of the overall epidemic in the future. Furthermore, our model shows that social heterogeneity of the susceptible population can explain the shift in HIV-1 incidence in Latvia over the course of the epidemic. Thus, the decrease in IDU incidence may be due to local heterogeneities in transmission, rather than the implementation of control measures. Increases in susceptibles, through social or geographic movement of IDU, could lead to a boost in HIV-1 infections in this risk group. Targeting individuals that bridge social groups would help prevent further spread of the

The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

2017-01-01

Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors.

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Joost R; May, Larissa; Haimar, Amine El

2013-09-01

Outbreaks of contagious diseases underscore the ever-looming threat of new epidemics. Compared to other disasters that inflict physical damage to infrastructure systems, epidemics can have more devastating and prolonged impacts on the population. This article investigates the interdependent economic and productivity risks resulting from epidemic-induced workforce absenteeism. In particular, we develop a dynamic input-output model capable of generating sector-disaggregated economic losses based on different magnitudes of workforce disruptions. An ex post analysis of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the national capital region (NCR) reveals the distribution of consequences across different economic sectors. Consequences are categorized into two metrics: (i) economic loss, which measures the magnitude of monetary losses incurred in each sector, and (ii) inoperability, which measures the normalized monetary losses incurred in each sector relative to the total economic output of that sector. For a simulated mild pandemic scenario in NCR, two distinct rankings are generated using the economic loss and inoperability metrics. Results indicate that the majority of the critical sectors ranked according to the economic loss metric comprise of sectors that contribute the most to the NCR's gross domestic product (e.g., federal government enterprises). In contrast, the majority of the critical sectors generated by the inoperability metric include sectors that are involved with epidemic management (e.g., hospitals). Hence, prioritizing sectors for recovery necessitates consideration of the balance between economic loss, inoperability, and other objectives. Although applied specifically to the NCR, the proposed methodology can be customized for other regions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

2017-11-01

In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

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Ángel G. Muñoz

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

epidemic teach us?

African Journals Online (AJOL)

frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2013-09-01

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2013-09-20

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Böttcher, L.; Woolley-Meza, O.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Herrmann, H. J.; Helbing, D.

2015-11-01

Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process.

2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Granel, Estelle

2006-01-01

The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

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Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

2017-09-01

Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

Spatio-temporal variation in prevalence of Rift Valley fever: a post-epidemic serum survey in cattle and wildlife in Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Lwande, Olivia Wesula; Paul, George Omondi; Chiyo, Patrick I; Ng'ang'a, Eliud; Otieno, Viola; Obanda, Vincent; Evander, Magnus

2015-01-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a fatal arthropod-borne zoonotic disease of livestock and humans. Since the identification of RVF in Kenya in the 1930s, repeated epizootics and epidemics coinciding with El Niño events have occurred in several locations in Africa and Saudi Arabia, causing mass deaths of livestock and humans. RVF is of great interest worldwide because of its negative effect on international livestock trade and its potential to spread globally. The latter is due to the increasing incidence of extreme climatic phenomena caused by global warming, as well as to the increase in global trade and international travel. How RVF is maintained and sustained between epidemics and epizootics is not clearly understood, but it has been speculated that wildlife reservoirs and trans-ovarian transmission in the vector may be important. Several studies have examined the role of wildlife and livestock in isolation or in a limited geographical location within the one country over a short time (usually less than a year). In this study, we examined the seroprevalence of anti-RVF antibodies in cattle and several wildlife species from several locations in Kenya over an inter-epidemic period spanning up to 7 years. A serological survey of immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to RVF using competitive ELISA was undertaken on 297 serum samples from different wildlife species at various locations in Kenya. The samples were collected between 2008 and 2015. Serum was also collected in 2014 from 177 cattle from Ol Pejeta Conservancy; 113 of the cattle were in close contact with wildlife and the other 64 were kept separate from buffalo and large game by an electric fence. The seroprevalence of RVF virus (RVFV) antibody was 11.6% in wildlife species during the study period. Cattle that could come in contact with wildlife and large game were all negative for RVFV. The seroprevalence was relatively high in elephants, rhinoceros, and buffalo, but there were no antibodies in zebras, baboons

Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

2012-08-01

Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Xiaoling; Wu Xiao; Zhang Duanming; Li Zhihao; Liang Fang; Wang Xiaoyu

2008-01-01

We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4

The need for data science in epidemic modelling. Comment on: "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al.

Science.gov (United States)

Danon, Leon; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen

2016-09-01

In their review, Chowell et al. consider the ability of mathematical models to predict early epidemic growth [1]. In particular, they question the central prediction of classical differential equation models that the number of cases grows exponentially during the early stages of an epidemic. Using examples including HIV and Ebola, they argue that classical models fail to capture key qualitative features of early growth and describe a selection of models that do capture non-exponential epidemic growth. An implication of this failure is that predictions may be inaccurate and unusable, highlighting the need for care when embarking upon modelling using classical methodology. There remains a lack of understanding of the mechanisms driving many observed epidemic patterns; we argue that data science should form a fundamental component of epidemic modelling, providing a rigorous methodology for data-driven approaches, rather than trying to enforce established frameworks. The need for refinement of classical models provides a strong argument for the use of data science, to identify qualitative characteristics and pinpoint the mechanisms responsible for the observed epidemic patterns.

Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV: a nationwide, population-based study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men.

Science.gov (United States)

Okano, Justin T; Robbins, Danielle; Palk, Laurence; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels; Blower, Sally

2016-07-01

Worldwide, approximately 35 million individuals are infected with HIV; about 25 million of these live in sub-Saharan Africa. WHO proposes using treatment as prevention (TasP) to eliminate HIV. Treatment suppresses viral load, decreasing the probability an individual transmits HIV. The elimination threshold is one new HIV infection per 1000 individuals. Here, we test the hypothesis that TasP can substantially reduce epidemics and eliminate HIV. We estimate the impact of TasP, between 1996 and 2013, on the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM), an epidemic UNAIDS has identified as a priority for elimination. We use a CD4-staged Bayesian back-calculation approach to estimate incidence, and the hidden epidemic (the number of HIV-infected undiagnosed MSM). To develop the back-calculation model, we use data from an ongoing nationwide population-based study: the Danish HIV Cohort Study. Incidence, and the hidden epidemic, decreased substantially after treatment was introduced in 1996. By 2013, incidence was close to the elimination threshold: 1·4 (median, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 0·4-2·1) new HIV infections per 1000 MSM and there were only 617 (264-858) undiagnosed MSM. Decreasing incidence and increasing treatment coverage were highly correlated; a treatment threshold effect was apparent. Our study is the first to show that TasP can substantially reduce a country's HIV epidemic, and bring it close to elimination. However, we have shown the effectiveness of TasP under optimal conditions: very high treatment coverage, and exceptionally high (98%) viral suppression rate. Unless these extremely challenging conditions can be met in sub-Saharan Africa, the WHO's global elimination strategy is unlikely to succeed. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

2017-10-01

The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

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Lyle Fearnley

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

OpenAIRE

Zhang, C.

2015-01-01

Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

Social networks and spreading of epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

2004-05-01

Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

Temperature, salinity, and nutrients data from CTD and bottle casts from a world-wide distribution from the ANDROMEDA and other platforms from 01 January 1923 to 31 December 1999 (NODC Accession 0000208)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — CTD and bottle data were collected from the ANDROMEDA and other platforms from a world-wide distribution from 01 January 1923 to 31 December 1999. Data were...

Temperature profile data collected using XBT and BT casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 1970-09-30 to 1979-08-05 (NODC Accession 8300089)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using XBT and BT casts from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 30 September 1970 to...

A geographic information system for the study of past epidemics: The 1705 epidemic in Martigues (Bouches-du-Rhône, France

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Stéfan Tzortzis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available At the beginning of the 18th century, the Provence region was hit by several severe epidemics whose causes are still not clearly understood.To draw up epidemic profiles and to identify the pathogenic agents concerned, we constituted a large onomastic database and built ageographic information system for Martigues, a medium-sized community in the south of France. The cross-linking of epidemiological,spatial and demographical data allows us to propose a new diagnosis for the epidemic which reached Martigues in the autumn of 1705.

Adaptive evolution of the spike gene of SARS coronavirus: changes in positively selected sites in different epidemic groups

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He Shao-Heng

2006-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is believed that animal-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS coronavirus (CoV is the cause of the SARS outbreak worldwide. The spike (S protein is one of the best characterized proteins of SARS-CoV, which plays a key role in SARS-CoV overcoming species barrier and accomplishing interspecies transmission from animals to humans, suggesting that it may be the major target of selective pressure. However, the process of adaptive evolution of S protein and the exact positively selected sites associated with this process remain unknown. Results By investigating the adaptive evolution of S protein, we identified twelve amino acid sites (75, 239, 244, 311, 479, 609, 613, 743, 765, 778, 1148, and 1163 in the S protein under positive selective pressure. Based on phylogenetic tree and epidemiological investigation, SARS outbreak was divided into three epidemic groups: 02–04 interspecies, 03-early-mid, and 03-late epidemic groups in the present study. Positive selection was detected in the first two groups, which represent the course of SARS-CoV interspecies transmission and of viral adaptation to human host, respectively. In contrast, purifying selection was detected in 03-late group. These indicate that S protein experiences variable positive selective pressures before reaching stabilization. A total of 25 sites in 02–04 interspecies epidemic group and 16 sites in 03-early-mid epidemic group were identified under positive selection. The identified sites were different between these two groups except for site 239, which suggests that positively selected sites are changeable between groups. Moreover, it was showed that a larger proportion (24% of positively selected sites was located in receptor-binding domain (RBD than in heptad repeat (HR1-HR2 region in 02–04 interspecies epidemic group (p = 0.0208, and a greater percentage (25% of these sites occurred in HR1–HR2 region than in RBD in 03-early

Mutually cooperative epidemics on power-law networks

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Peng-Bi; Colaiori, Francesca; Castellano, Claudio

2017-08-01

The spread of an infectious disease can, in some cases, promote the propagation of other pathogens favoring violent outbreaks, which cause a discontinuous transition to an endemic state. The topology of the contact network plays a crucial role in these cooperative dynamics. We consider a susceptible-infected-removed-type model with two mutually cooperative pathogens: An individual already infected with one disease has an increased probability of getting infected by the other. We present a heterogeneous mean-field theoretical approach to the coinfection dynamics on generic uncorrelated power-law degree-distributed networks and validate its results by means of numerical simulations. We show that, when the second moment of the degree distribution is finite, the epidemic transition is continuous for low cooperativity, while it is discontinuous when cooperativity is sufficiently high. For scale-free networks, i.e., topologies with diverging second moment, the transition is instead always continuous. In this way we clarify the effect of heterogeneity and system size on the nature of the transition, and we validate the physical interpretation about the origin of the discontinuity.

Genetic and phylogenetic evolution of HIV-1 in a low subtype heterogeneity epidemic: the Italian example

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tornesello Maria

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract The Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1 is classified into genetic groups, subtypes and sub-subtypes which show a specific geographic distribution pattern. The HIV-1 epidemic in Italy, as in most of the Western Countries, has traditionally affected the Intra-venous drug user (IDU and Homosexual (Homo risk groups and has been sustained by the genetic B subtype. In the last years, however, the HIV-1 transmission rate among heterosexuals has dramatically increased, becoming the prevalent transmission route. In fact, while the traditional risk groups have high levels of knowledge and avoid high-risk practices, the heterosexuals do not sufficiently perceive the risk of HIV-1 infection. This misperception, linked to the growing number of immigrants from non-Western Countries, where non-B clades and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs are prevalent, is progressively introducing HIV-1 variants of non-B subtype in the Italian epidemic. This is in agreement with reports from other Western European Countries. In this context, the Italian HIV-1 epidemic is still characterized by low subtype heterogeneity and represents a paradigmatic example of the European situation. The continuous molecular evolution of the B subtype HIV-1 isolates, characteristic of a long-lasting epidemic, together with the introduction of new subtypes as well as recombinant forms may have significant implications for diagnostic, treatment, and vaccine development. The study and monitoring of the genetic evolution of the HIV-1 represent, therefore, an essential strategy for controlling the local as well as global HIV-1 epidemic and for developing efficient preventive and therapeutic strategies.

Temperature profile data collected using XBT and BT casts in a world-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 1982-08-18 to 1982-12-21 (NODC Accession 8300007)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using XBT and BT casts from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms in a world-wide distribution from 18 August 1982 to 21...

[Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

Science.gov (United States)

Frøland, Anders

2015-01-01

The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

CERN Document Server

Allen, Linda J S

2015-01-01

This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

Epidemiology of Thyroid Cancer in an Area of Epidemic Thyroid Goiter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cossu, A.; Paliogiannis, P.; Scognamillo, F.; Attene, F.; Trignano, M.; Tanda, F.; Budroni, M.; Cesaraccio, R.; Palmieri, G.

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze and describe the epidemiological characteristics and trends of thyroid cancer in the province of Sassari (Sardinia, Italy), an area with epidemic thyroid goiter, in the period 1992-2010. Data were obtained from the local tumor registry which makes part of a wider registry web, coordinated today by the Italian Association for Tumor Registries. An increasing trend in the incidence of thyroid cancer in the province of Sassari was evidenced. This trend seems to follow the general worldwide trend and does not seem to be related to the high incidence of thyroid goiter in the area. The frequencies of the different histological subtypes were similar to those reported in numerous national and international reports. Women are affected earlier than men and, therefore, suffer greater professional, economic, and social impacts. Overall mortality is low and a relative 5-year survival is excellent, especially in comparison to other malignancies

Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

CERN Document Server

Draief, Moez

2009-01-01

Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

Modelling cholera epidemics: the role of waterways, human mobility and sanitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mari, L; Bertuzzo, E; Righetto, L; Casagrandi, R; Gatto, M; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I; Rinaldo, A

2012-02-07

We investigate the role of human mobility as a driver for long-range spreading of cholera infections, which primarily propagate through hydrologically controlled ecological corridors. Our aim is to build a spatially explicit model of a disease epidemic, which is relevant to both social and scientific issues. We present a two-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of the pathogen Vibrio cholerae owing to host movement, described here by means of a gravity-model approach. We test our model against epidemiological data recorded during the extensive cholera outbreak occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during 2000-2001. We show that long-range human movement is fundamental in quantifying otherwise unexplained inter-catchment transport of V. cholerae, thus playing a key role in the formation of regional patterns of cholera epidemics. We also show quantitatively how heterogeneously distributed drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect large-scale cholera transmission, and analyse the effects of different sanitation policies.

Modelling cholera epidemics: the role of waterways, human mobility and sanitation

Science.gov (United States)

Mari, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-01-01

We investigate the role of human mobility as a driver for long-range spreading of cholera infections, which primarily propagate through hydrologically controlled ecological corridors. Our aim is to build a spatially explicit model of a disease epidemic, which is relevant to both social and scientific issues. We present a two-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of the pathogen Vibrio cholerae owing to host movement, described here by means of a gravity-model approach. We test our model against epidemiological data recorded during the extensive cholera outbreak occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during 2000–2001. We show that long-range human movement is fundamental in quantifying otherwise unexplained inter-catchment transport of V. cholerae, thus playing a key role in the formation of regional patterns of cholera epidemics. We also show quantitatively how heterogeneously distributed drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect large-scale cholera transmission, and analyse the effects of different sanitation policies. PMID:21752809

Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by use of the efficient routing protocol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Han-Xin; Wu, Zhi-Xi

2014-01-01

Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of an efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exist optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an increase in the average network connectivity and the emergence of traffic congestion can suppress the epidemic outbreak. (paper)

Canine distemper virus infection among wildlife before and after the epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Suzuki, Junko; Nishio, Yohei; Kameo, Yuki; Terada, Yutaka; Kuwata, Ryusei; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Kazuo; Maeda, Ken

2015-11-01

In 2007-2008, a canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic occurred among wild animals in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan, and many mammals, including the wild boar and deer, were infected. In this study, CDV prevalence among wild animals was surveyed before and after the epidemic. At first, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with horseradish peroxidase-conjugated protein A/G was established to detect CDV antibodies in many mammalian species. This established ELISA was available for testing dogs, raccoons and raccoon dogs as well as virus-neutralization test. Next, a serological survey of wild mammalians was conducted, and it was indicated that many wild mammalians, particularly raccoons, were infected with CDV during the epidemic, but few were infected before and after the epidemic. On the other hand, many raccoon dogs died during the epidemic, but CDV remained prevalent in the remaining population, and a small epidemic occurred in raccoon dogs in 2012-2013. These results indicated that the epidemic of 2007-2008 may have been intensified by transmission to raccoons.

Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

2018-02-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

MOSES: A Matlab-based open-source stochastic epidemic simulator.

Science.gov (United States)

Varol, Huseyin Atakan

2016-08-01

This paper presents an open-source stochastic epidemic simulator. Discrete Time Markov Chain based simulator is implemented in Matlab. The simulator capable of simulating SEQIJR (susceptible, exposed, quarantined, infected, isolated and recovered) model can be reduced to simpler models by setting some of the parameters (transition probabilities) to zero. Similarly, it can be extended to more complicated models by editing the source code. It is designed to be used for testing different control algorithms to contain epidemics. The simulator is also designed to be compatible with a network based epidemic simulator and can be used in the network based scheme for the simulation of a node. Simulations show the capability of reproducing different epidemic model behaviors successfully in a computationally efficient manner.

Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. N. Kuperman

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

2014-09-01

In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

2018-01-01

Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

Stationary power fuel cell commercialization status worldwide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, M.C. [Dept. of Energy, Morgantown, WV (United States)

1996-12-31

Fuel cell technologies for stationary power are set to play a role in power generation applications worldwide. The worldwide fuel cell vision is to provide powerplants for the emerging distributed generation and on-site markets. Progress towards commercialization has occurred in all fuel cell development areas. Around 100 ONSI phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) units have been sold, with significant foreign sales in Europe and Japan. Fuji has apparently overcome its PAFC decay problems. Industry-driven molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC) programs in Japan and the U.S. are conducting megawatt (MW)-class demonstrations, which are bringing the MCFC to the verge of commercialization. Westinghouse Electric, the acknowledged world leader in tubular solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology, continues to set performance records and has completed construction of a 4-MW/year manufacturing facility in the U.S. Fuel cells have also taken a major step forward with the conceptual development of ultra-high efficiency fuel cell/gas turbine plants. Many SOFC developers in Japan, Europe, and North America continue to make significant advances.

Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

2015-01-01

In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network pe...... assigninglower repair times among the network nodes. They believe that the event-driven simulation model can be highly beneficialfor network providers, since it could be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost-effective networksurvivability design.......In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

Epidemic dynamics on a risk-based evolving social network

Science.gov (United States)

Antwi, Shadrack; Shaw, Leah

2013-03-01

Social network models have been used to study how behavior affects the dynamics of an infection in a population. Motivated by HIV, we consider how a trade-off between benefits and risks of sexual connections determine network structure and disease prevalence. We define a stochastic network model with formation and breaking of links as changes in sexual contacts. Each node has an intrinsic benefit its neighbors derive from connecting to it. Nodes' infection status is not apparent to others, but nodes with more connections (higher degree) are assumed more likely to be infected. The probability to form and break links is determined by a payoff computed from the benefit and degree-dependent risk. The disease is represented by a SI (susceptible-infected) model. We study network and epidemic evolution via Monte Carlo simulation and analytically predict the behavior with a heterogeneous mean field approach. The dependence of network connectivity and infection threshold on parameters is determined, and steady state degree distribution and epidemic levels are obtained. We also study a situation where system-wide infection levels alter perception of risk and cause nodes to adjust their behavior. This is a case of an adaptive network, where node status feeds back to change network geometry.

Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model for Early Warning at the Start of a Hand Foot Mouth Disease Epidemic in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China.

Science.gov (United States)

An, Qingyu; Wu, Jun; Fan, Xuesong; Pan, Liyang; Sun, Wei

2016-01-01

The hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a human syndrome caused by intestinal viruses like that coxsackie A virus 16, enterovirus 71 and easily developed into outbreak in kindergarten and school. Scientifically and accurately early detection of the start time of HFMD epidemic is a key principle in planning of control measures and minimizing the impact of HFMD. The objective of this study was to establish a reliable early detection model for start timing of hand foot mouth disease epidemic in Dalian and to evaluate the performance of model by analyzing the sensitivity in detectability. The negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the weekly baseline case number of HFMD and identified the optimal alerting threshold between tested difference threshold values during the epidemic and non-epidemic year. Circular distribution method was used to calculate the gold standard of start timing of HFMD epidemic. From 2009 to 2014, a total of 62022 HFMD cases were reported (36879 males and 25143 females) in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China, including 15 fatal cases. The median age of the patients was 3 years. The incidence rate of epidemic year ranged from 137.54 per 100,000 population to 231.44 per 100,000population, the incidence rate of non-epidemic year was lower than 112 per 100,000 population. The negative binomial regression model with AIC value 147.28 was finally selected to construct the baseline level. The threshold value was 100 for the epidemic year and 50 for the non- epidemic year had the highest sensitivity(100%) both in retrospective and prospective early warning and the detection time-consuming was 2 weeks before the actual starting of HFMD epidemic. The negative binomial regression model could early warning the start of a HFMD epidemic with good sensitivity and appropriate detection time in Dalian.

EVALUATION AND PREDICTIVE METHODS OF EPIDEMICAL SITUATION IN THE AREA OF ACUTE ENTERIC INFECTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malysh N.G.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Despite the fact, that nowadays acute intestinal infections (AII sick rate is decreasing, the aggravation of the epidemical situation is always there. Increased attention to AII caused by unpredictable epidemical rises of the AII diseases, which cannot be prevented without assessing the epidemical situation of these infections and forecasting of the levels of sick rate. However, developed mathematical methods of forecasting in most cases do not take into account the risk factors, also they are time-consuming and it is difficult to calculate them; and developed special computer programs, which predict infectious sick rates, are often in the lack in the institutions of sanitary-epidemiological service. An urgent problem for today is establishing of the most influential social and environmental factors, which can make a contribution to the spread of AII. The aim of this work was to improve the method of assessment and prediction of epidemic situation of AII by identifying the influence of climatic and demographic factors. Materials and methods. In order to determine the influence of meteorological and demographic factors on the epidemic process of acute intestinal infections the official reports of the State Sanitary and Epidemiological Service of Ukraine in Sumy region, the Department of Statistics, Sumy Regional Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring have been studied. Results and discussion. The work on the evaluation of the epidemiological situation of the AII begins from collecting data, according to the AII sick rate. The main source of this information is the logbook of infectious diseases, which recorded all sick people that were found in the area. It is necessary to gather the initial information, calculate the sick rate and monthly distribution of AII cases on investigated area and evaluate the tendency. At the same time with accounting of AII cases on investigated territory, takes place a monitoring of air

Temperature profile data collected using BT and XBT casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRIGE and other platforms from 1989-03-10 to 1990-08-01 (NODC Accession 9000239)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using XBT and BT casts from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRDIGE and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 10 March 1989...

Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

KAUST Repository

Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

2011-01-01

In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clement N Mweya

Full Text Available Rift Valley Fever (RVF is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics.Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district.Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Mweya, Clement N; Holst, Niels; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

2014-01-01

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics. Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD) and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML) files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district. Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. Report on the 1st Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, Harare, Zimbabwe, 26-29 September, 2004.

Science.gov (United States)

DaSilva, Joaquim; Garanganga, Brad; Teveredzi, Vonai; Marx, Sabine M; Mason, Simon J; Connor, Stephen J

2004-10-22

Malaria is a major public health problem for countries in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). While the endemicity of malaria varies enormously across this region, many of the countries have districts that are prone to periodic epidemics, which can be regional in their extent, and to resurgent outbreaks that are much more localized. These epidemics are frequently triggered by climate anomalies and often follow periods of drought. Many parts of Southern Africa have suffered rainfall deficit over the past three years and countries expect to see increased levels of malaria when the rains return to more 'normal' levels. Problems with drug and insecticide resistance are documented widely and the region contains countries with the highest rates of HIV prevalence to be found anywhere in the world. Consequently, many communities are vulnerable to severe disease outcomes should epidemics occur. The SADC countries have adopted the Abuja targets for Roll Back Malaria in Africa, which include improved epidemic detection and response, i.e., that 60% of epidemics will be detected within two weeks of onset, and 60% of epidemics will be responded to within two weeks of detection. The SADC countries recognize that to achieve these targets they need improved information on where and when to look for epidemics. The WHO integrated framework for improved early warning and early detection of malaria epidemics has been recognized as a potentially useful tool for epidemic preparedness and response planning. Following evidence of successful adoption and implementation of this approach in Botswana, the SADC countries, the WHO Southern Africa Inter-Country Programme on Malaria Control, and the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre decided to organize a regional meeting where countries could gather to assess their current control status and community vulnerability, consider changes in epidemic risk, and develop a detailed plan of action for the forthcoming 2004-2005 season. The

Temperature profile data collected using BT and XBT casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRIGE and other platforms from 1988-02-03 to 1990-03-31 (NODC Accession 9000094)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using XBT and BT casts from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRIGE in a World-wide distribution from 03 February 1988 to 31 March 1990....

Engaging 'communities': anthropological insights from the West African Ebola epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, A; Parker, M; Martineau, F; Leach, M

2017-05-26

The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa highlights how engaging with the sociocultural dimensions of epidemics is critical to mounting an effective outbreak response. Community engagement was pivotal to ending the epidemic and will be to post-Ebola recovery, health system strengthening and future epidemic preparedness and response. Extensive literatures in the social sciences have emphasized how simple notions of community, which project solidarity onto complex hierarchies and politics, can lead to ineffective policies and unintended consequences at the local level, including doing harm to vulnerable populations. This article reflects on the nature of community engagement during the Ebola epidemic and demonstrates a disjuncture between local realities and what is being imagined in post-Ebola reports about the lessons that need to be learned for the future. We argue that to achieve stated aims of building trust and strengthening outbreak response and health systems, public health institutions need to reorientate their conceptualization of 'the community' and develop ways of working which take complex social and political relationships into account.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

2016-01-01

In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

Human mobility and time spent at destination: impact on spatial epidemic spreading.

Science.gov (United States)

Poletto, Chiara; Tizzoni, Michele; Colizza, Vittoria

2013-12-07

Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that characterize real mobility networks favor the propagation of epidemics. Nevertheless, the studies conducted so far assumed the mobility process to be either Markovian (in which the memory of the origin of each traveler is lost) or non-Markovian with a fixed traveling time scale (in which individuals travel to a destination and come back at a constant rate). Available statistics however show that the time spent by travelers at destination is characterized by wide fluctuations, ranging from a single day up to several months. Such varying length of stay crucially affects the chance and duration of mixing events among hosts and may therefore have a strong impact on the spread of an emerging disease. Here, we present an analytical and a computational study of epidemic processes on a complex subpopulation network where travelers have memory of their origin and spend a heterogeneously distributed time interval at their destination. Through analytical calculations and numerical simulations we show that the heterogeneity of the length of stay alters the expression of the threshold between local outbreak and global invasion, and, moreover, it changes the epidemic behavior of the system in case of a global outbreak. Additionally, our theoretical framework allows us to study the effect of changes in the traveling behavior in response to the infection, by considering a scenario in which sick individuals do not leave their home location. Finally, we compare the results of our non-Markovian framework with those obtained with a classic Markovian approach and find relevant differences between the two, in the estimate of the epidemic invasion potential, as well as of the timing and the pattern of its spatial spread. These results highlight the importance of

Mathematical modeling of Avian Influenza epidemic with bird vaccination in constant population

Science.gov (United States)

Kharis, M.; Amidi

2018-03-01

The development of the industrial world and human life is increasingly modern and less attention to environmental sustainability causes the virus causes the epidemic has a high tendency to mutate so that the virus that initially only attack animals, is also found to have the ability to attack humans. The epidemics that lasted some time were bird flu epidemics and swine flu epidemics. The flu epidemic led to several deaths and many people admitted to the hospital. Strain (derivatives) of H5N1 virus was identified as the cause of the bird flu epidemic while the H1N1 strain of the virus was identified as the cause of the swine flu epidemic. The symptoms are similar to seasonal flu caused by H3N2 strain of the virus. Outbreaks of bird flu and swine flu initially only attacked animals, but over time some people were found to be infected with the virus.

Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

Science.gov (United States)

Frasso, Gianluca; Lambert, Philippe

2016-10-01

SummaryThe 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic compartmental model. The discrete time-stochastic model for the epidemic evolution is coupled to a set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of the expected proportions of subjects in each epidemic state. The unknown parameters are estimated in a Bayesian framework by combining data on the number of new (laboratory confirmed) Ebola cases reported by the Ministry of Health and prior distributions for the transition rates elicited using information collected by the WHO during the follow-up of specific Ebola cases. The time-varying disease transmission rate is modeled in a flexible way using penalized B-splines. Our framework represents a valuable stochastic tool for the study of an epidemic dynamic even when only irregularly observed and possibly aggregated data are available. Simulations and the analysis of the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola data highlight the merits of the proposed methodology. In particular, the flexible modeling of the disease transmission rate makes the estimation of the effective reproduction number robust to the misspecification of the initial epidemic states and to underreporting of the infectious cases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Interplay Between Hiv/aids Epidemics and Demographic Structures Based on Sexual Contact Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Tao; Wang, Bing-Hong

In this article, we propose a network spreading model for HIV epidemics, wherein each individual is represented by a node of the transmission network and the edges are the connections between individuals along which the infection may spread. The sexual activity of each individual, measured by its degree, is not homogeneous but obeys a power-law distribution. Due to the heterogeneity of activity, the infection can persistently exist at a very low prevalence, which has been observed in the real data but cannot be illuminated by previous models with homogeneous mixing hypothesis. The model displays a clear picture of hierarchical spread: In the early stage the infection is adhered to these high-risk persons, and then, diffuses toward low-risk population. Furthermore, we find that to reduce the risky behaviors is much more effective in the fight against HIV/AIDS rather than the antiretroviral drug therapies. The prediction results show that the development of epidemics can be roughly categorized into three patterns for different countries, and the pattern of a given country is mainly determined by the average sex-activity and transmission probability per sexual partner. In most cases, the effect of HIV epidemics on demographic structure is very small. However, for some extremely countries, like Botswana, the number of sex-active people can be depressed to nearly a half by AIDS.

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

2007-06-15

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

Science.gov (United States)

Nekovee, Maziar

2007-06-01

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nekovee, Maziar

2007-01-01

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

2018-04-01

Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

Epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, Xiangwei; Guan, Jihong; Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng

2009-01-01

Many empirical studies reveal that the weights and community structure are ubiquitous in various natural and artificial networks. In this paper, based on the SI disease model, we investigate the epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure. Two exponents, α and β, are introduced to weight the internal edges and external edges, respectively; and a tunable probability parameter q is also introduced to adjust the strength of community structure. We find the external weighting exponent β plays a much more important role in slackening the epidemic spreading and reducing the danger brought by the epidemic than the internal weighting exponent α. Moreover, a novel result we find is that the strong community structure is no longer helpful for slackening the danger brought by the epidemic in the weighted cases. In addition, we show the hierarchical dynamics of the epidemic spreading in the weighted scale-free networks with communities which is also displayed in the famous BA scale-free networks

Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda Valeri

Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

Trauma - the malignant epidemic

African Journals Online (AJOL)

national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

Epidemics on interconnected networks

Science.gov (United States)

Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

2012-06-01

Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

Science.gov (United States)

Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2013-10-01

Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

Lifestyle Choices Fuel Epidemics of Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease Among Asian Indians.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Keefe, Evan L; DiNicolantonio, James J; Patil, Harshal; Helzberg, John H; Lavie, Carl J

2016-01-01

Within the next 15years, India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous nation. Due to the rapid pace of urbanization and modernization fueling population growth, in conjunction with a genetic predisposition to insulin resistance, India is suffering a rising epidemic of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including coronary artery disease (CAD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and stroke. In addition to the genetic predisposition, major negative lifestyle factors are contributing to the alarming outbreak of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among the Asian Indian population; these factors include: 1) a diet high in added sugar, refined grains and other processed foods, 2) physical inactivity, 3) vitamin D deficiency (VDD), and 4) smoking/pollution. These risk factors are all highly modifiable, and steps to improve these issues should be taken urgently to avoid a worsening NCD crisis among the inhabitants of the South Asian subcontinent as well as for people with Asian Indian ethnicity worldwide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stable intergenerational associations of childhood overweight during the development of the obesity epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ajslev, Teresa A; Ängquist, Lars; Silventoinen, Karri

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups of chil......: Parent-child resemblance in childhood overweight showed small changes during the development of the obesity epidemic, suggesting that the obesogenic environment inducing the epidemic in Denmark influenced children irrespective of their familial predisposition.......OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups...

Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

International Journal of Educational Research ... Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s Perspectives and Challenges for School Counsellors ... Keywords: Cultural Practices, HIV Epidemic; Behaviour Change.

Islanding Operation of Distribution System with Distributed Generations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mahat, Pukar; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2010-01-01

The growing interest in distributed generations (DGs) due to environmental concern and various other reasons have resulted in significant penetration of DGs in many distribution system worldwide. DGs come with many benefits. One of the benefits is improved reliability by supplying load during power...

The origin and emergence of an HIV-1 epidemic:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne; Audelin, Anne M.; Helleberg, Marie

2014-01-01

To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic.......To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic....

Temperature, salinity, and nutrients data from CTD and bottle casts from a world-wide distribution from the CORNIDE DE SAAVEDRA and other platforms from 01 January 1914 to 12 December 1999 (NODC Accession 0000207)

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — CTD, bottle, and other data were collected from the CORNIDE DE SAAVEDRA and other platforms from a world-wide distribution from 01 January 1914 to 31 December 1999....

Health-Care Access during the Ebola Virus Epidemic in Liberia.

Science.gov (United States)

McQuilkin, Patricia A; Udhayashankar, Kanagasabai; Niescierenko, Michelle; Maranda, Louise

2017-09-01

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic, which began in West Africa in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, with more than 4,800 of these deaths occurring in Liberia. The epidemic had an additional effect of paralyzing the health-care systems in affected countries, which led to even greater mortality and morbidity. Little is known about the impact that the epidemic had on the provision of basic health care. During the period from March to May 2015, we undertook a nationwide, community-based survey to learn more about health-care access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. A cluster sampling strategy was used to administer a structured in-person survey to heads of households located within the catchment areas surrounding all 21 government hospitals in Liberia. A total of 543 heads of household from all 15 counties in Liberia participated in the study; more than half (67%) of urban respondents and 46% of rural respondents stated that it was very difficult or impossible to access health care during the epidemic. In urban areas, only 20-30% of patients seeking care during the epidemic received care, and in rural areas, only 70-80% of those seeking care were able to access it. Patients requiring prenatal and obstetric care and emergency services had the most difficulty accessing care. The results of this survey support the observation that basic health care was extremely difficult to access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. Our results underscore the critical need to support essential health-care services during humanitarian crises to minimize preventable morbidity and mortality.

Epidemic Propagation of Control Plane Failures in GMPLS Controlled Optical Transport Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the behaviour of a dataplane-decoupled GMPLS control plane, when it is affected by failures that spread in the network in an epidemic manner. In particular, we consider network nodes to be either fully functional, or having a failed control plane, or having both...... a failed control and data plane. Through large-scale network simulation, we evaluate the effect of epidemically spreading control plane failures in terms of blocked connections requests and the amount of stranded capacity due to a dysfunctional control plane. Furthermore, we investigate the effect...... of the epidemic and the epidemic spreading intensity. In particular, networks with long epidemic durations do not necessarily result in worst performance in terms of blocked requests and capacity. Also epidemic scenarios, resulting in worst impact on the network availability does not necessarily result in worst...

Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

Science.gov (United States)

Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

2014-01-01

Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

Epidemias em escala mundial e no Brasil Epidemics on a global scale and in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José da Rocha Carvalheiro

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Epidemias devem ser consideradas não como um tipo especial de doença, mas sim como parte de um complexo processo de distribuição de patologias no tempo e no espaço. Diversas classificações de doenças existem, sendo oficial a CID atualmente em sua décima versão. As cartas de controle, empregadas pelo serviço de saúde, permitem uma aproximação à fase, endêmica ou epidêmica, em que se encontram especialmente doenças sujeitas a vigilância em todo o mundo, as quarentenáveis. O conceito de surto deve ser encarado como um indício de concentração de episódios que merece estudo mais profundo. As mais importantes doenças transmissíveis no mundo em desenvolvimento são chamadas negligenciadas e merecem atenção especial das agências de fomento de pesquisa por não serem tidas como prioritárias pela indústria farmacêutica. No Brasil, a Agenda de Prioridades de Pesquisa em Saúde inclui diversas doenças dessa natureza e tem sido contempladas em editais do CNPq e do Ministério da Saúde.Epidemics must not be seen as a special kind of disease but as part of a complex process of distribution of pathologies over time and space. Among the different existing disease classifications, the ICD, currently in its 10th edition, is the official one. The control charts being employed by the health system allow estimating the stage of development, endemic or epidemic, of diseases, especially those subject to worldwide control, the quarantinable diseases. The concept outbreak should be understood as a signal for the concentration of episodes worth being studied in depth. The most important communicable diseases in the developing world, the so-called neglected diseases, deserve special attention from the research funding agencies for not ranging among the priorities of the pharmaceutical industry. In Brazil, the agenda of priorities in health research includes various diseases of this nature, which have been contemplated in calls for projects

Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, T.

2015-01-01

Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.

The limit distribution of the maximum increment of a random walk with regularly varying jump size distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Rackauskas, Alfredas

2010-01-01

In this paper, we deal with the asymptotic distribution of the maximum increment of a random walk with a regularly varying jump size distribution. This problem is motivated by a long-standing problem on change point detection for epidemic alternatives. It turns out that the limit distribution...... of the maximum increment of the random walk is one of the classical extreme value distributions, the Fréchet distribution. We prove the results in the general framework of point processes and for jump sizes taking values in a separable Banach space...

GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

2009-08-01

In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica Godwin

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Background: While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART. Thus, projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course of the epidemic, and ART coverage. Methods: We extend the current Bayesian probabilistic life expectancy projection methods of Raftery et al. (2013 to account for HIV prevalence and adult ART coverage in countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. Results: We evaluate our method using out-of-sample validation. We find that the proposed method performs better than the method that does not account for HIV prevalence or ART coverage for projections of life expectancy in countries with a generalized epidemic, while projections for countries without an epidemic remain essentially unchanged. Conclusions: In general, our projections show rapid recovery to pre-epidemic life expectancy levels in the presence of widespread ART coverage. After the initial life expectancy recovery, we project a steady rise in life expectancy until the end of the century. Contribution: We develop a simple Bayesian hierarchical model for long-term projections of life expectancy while accounting for HIV/AIDS prevalence and coverage of ART. The method produces well-calibrated projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics up to 2100 while having limited data demands.

Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nishiura Hiroshi

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Real-time forecasting of epidemics, especially those based on a likelihood-based approach, is understudied. This study aimed to develop a simple method that can be used for the real-time epidemic forecasting. Methods A discrete time stochastic model, accounting for demographic stochasticity and conditional measurement, was developed and applied as a case study to the weekly incidence of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009 in Japan. By imposing a branching process approximation and by assuming the linear growth of cases within each reporting interval, the epidemic curve is predicted using only two parameters. The uncertainty bounds of the forecasts are computed using chains of conditional offspring distributions. Results The quality of the forecasts made before the epidemic peak appears largely to depend on obtaining valid parameter estimates. The forecasts of both weekly incidence and final epidemic size greatly improved at and after the epidemic peak with all the observed data points falling within the uncertainty bounds. Conclusions Real-time forecasting using the discrete time stochastic model with its simple computation of the uncertainty bounds was successful. Because of the simplistic model structure, the proposed model has the potential to additionally account for various types of heterogeneity, time-dependent transmission dynamics and epidemiological details. The impact of such complexities on forecasting should be explored when the data become available as part of the disease surveillance.

Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Guthmann, J P

1995-12-01

In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

Gene therapy clinical trials worldwide to 2017: An update.

Science.gov (United States)

Ginn, Samantha L; Amaya, Anais K; Alexander, Ian E; Edelstein, Michael; Abedi, Mohammad R

2018-03-25

To date, almost 2600 gene therapy clinical trials have been completed, are ongoing or have been approved worldwide. Our database brings together global information on gene therapy clinical activity from trial databases, official agency sources, published literature, conference presentations and posters kindly provided to us by individual investigators or trial sponsors. This review presents our analysis of clinical trials that, to the best of our knowledge, have been or are being performed worldwide. As of our November 2017 update, we have entries on 2597 trials undertaken in 38 countries. We have analysed the geographical distribution of trials, the disease indications (or other reasons) for trials, the proportions to which different vector types are used, and the genes that have been transferred. Details of the analyses presented, and our searchable database are available via The Journal of Gene Medicine Gene Therapy Clinical Trials Worldwide website at: http://www.wiley.co.uk/genmed/clinical. We also provide an overview of the progress being made in gene therapy clinical trials around the world, and discuss key trends since the previous review, namely the use of chimeric antigen receptor T cells for the treatment of cancer and advancements in genome editing technologies, which have the potential to transform the field moving forward. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

2012-03-01

We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

Impact of clinical surveillance during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

duration, number of infected herds and the economic losses from an epidemic. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was enhanced to include simulation of surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and the model was used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing......The objectives of this study were to assess, whether the current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could reduce epidemic...... showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds within one week of the zones establishment, as the regulations demand. Extra resources for surveillance did not reduce the costs of the epidemics, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Furthermore...

The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

d'Albis, Hippolyte; Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle; Djemai, Elodie; Ducrot, Arnaud

2012-01-01

In this paper, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender- and age-structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We, therefore, conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.

Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1 Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Napp

Full Text Available Andalusia (Southern Spain is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (Rt, defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0. Here we apply a method using epidemic trees to estimate the between-herd case reproduction ratio directly from epidemic data allowing the spatial and temporal variability in transmission to be described. We then relate this variability to predictors describing the hosts, vectors and the environment to better understand why the epidemic spread more quickly in some regions or periods. The Rt value for the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia peaked in July at 4.6, at the start of the epidemic, then decreased to 2.2 by August, dropped below 1 by September (0.8, and by October it had decreased to 0.02. BTV spread was the consequence of both local transmission within established disease foci and BTV expansion to distant new areas (i.e. new foci, which resulted in a high variability in BTV transmission, not only among different areas, but particularly through time, which suggests that general control measures applied at broad spatial scales are unlikely to be effective. This high variability through time was probably due to the impact of temperature on BTV transmission, as evidenced by a reduction in the value of Rt by 0.0041 for every unit increase (day in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP, which is itself directly dependent on temperature. Moreover, within the range of values at which BTV-1 transmission occurred in Andalusia (20.6°C to 29.5°C there was a positive correlation between temperature and Rt values, although the

Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Huidong; Yan, Chuan; Xu, Lei; Büntgen, Ulf; Stenseth, Nils C; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-12-05

A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

Epidemic outbreaks in growing scale-free networks with local structure

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Shunjiang; Weng, Wenguo; Shen, Shifei; Fan, Weicheng

2008-09-01

The class of generative models has already attracted considerable interest from researchers in recent years and much expanded the original ideas described in BA model. Most of these models assume that only one node per time step joins the network. In this paper, we grow the network by adding n interconnected nodes as a local structure into the network at each time step with each new node emanating m new edges linking the node to the preexisting network by preferential attachment. This successfully generates key features observed in social networks. These include power-law degree distribution pk∼k, where μ=(n-1)/m is a tuning parameter defined as the modularity strength of the network, nontrivial clustering, assortative mixing, and modular structure. Moreover, all these features are dependent in a similar way on the parameter μ. We then study the susceptible-infected epidemics on this network with identical infectivity, and find that the initial epidemic behavior is governed by both of the infection scheme and the network structure, especially the modularity strength. The modularity of the network makes the spreading velocity much lower than that of the BA model. On the other hand, increasing the modularity strength will accelerate the propagation velocity.

Status of research reactor spent fuel world-wide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritchie, I.G.

2004-01-01

Results compiled in the research reactor spent fuel database are used to assess the status of research reactor spent fuel world-wide. Fuel assemblies, their types, enrichment, origin of enrichment and geological distribution among the industrialised and developed countries of the world are discussed. Fuel management practices in wet and dry storage facilities and the concerns of reactor operators about long-term storage of their spent fuel are presented and some of the activities carried out by the International Atomic Energy Agency to address the issues associated with research reactor spent fuel are outlined. (author)

Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

2012-01-01

In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection. (general)

Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changwang Zhang

Full Text Available Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

2015-01-01

Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

2015-08-01

During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

A social contagious model of the obesity epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, He; Yan, Zhijun; Chen, Yahong; Liu, Fangyan

2016-11-01

Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by WHO, followed by many empirical evidences to prove its infectiousness. However, the inter-person spreading dynamics of obesity are seldom studied. A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a social contagion process which cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease models. In this paper, we propose a novel belief decision model based on the famous Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to model obesity epidemic as the competing spread of two obesity-related behaviors: physical inactivity and physical activity. The transition of health states is described by an SIS model. Results reveal the existence of obesity epidemic threshold, above which obesity is quickly eradicated. When increasing the fading level of information spread, enlarging the clustering of initial obese seeds, or introducing small-world characteristics into the network topology, the threshold is easily met. Social discrimination against the obese people plays completely different roles in two cases: on one hand, when obesity cannot be eradicated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination may instead cause it breaking out.

Temperature profile and chemical data collected using XBT and CTD casts from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRIGE and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 1991-09-17 to 1995-03-23 (NODC Accession 9500074)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile and chemical data were collected using XBT and CTD casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRIGE and other platforms from 17...

Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiang Wan

Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

Utility and potential of rapid epidemic intelligence from internet-based sources.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, S J; Chughtai, A A; Macintyre, C R

2017-10-01

Rapid epidemic detection is an important objective of surveillance to enable timely intervention, but traditional validated surveillance data may not be available in the required timeframe for acute epidemic control. Increasing volumes of data on the Internet have prompted interest in methods that could use unstructured sources to enhance traditional disease surveillance and gain rapid epidemic intelligence. We aimed to summarise Internet-based methods that use freely-accessible, unstructured data for epidemic surveillance and explore their timeliness and accuracy outcomes. Steps outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist were used to guide a systematic review of research related to the use of informal or unstructured data by Internet-based intelligence methods for surveillance. We identified 84 articles published between 2006-2016 relating to Internet-based public health surveillance methods. Studies used search queries, social media posts and approaches derived from existing Internet-based systems for early epidemic alerts and real-time monitoring. Most studies noted improved timeliness compared to official reporting, such as in the 2014 Ebola epidemic where epidemic alerts were generated first from ProMED-mail. Internet-based methods showed variable correlation strength with official datasets, with some methods showing reasonable accuracy. The proliferation of publicly available information on the Internet provided a new avenue for epidemic intelligence. Methodologies have been developed to collect Internet data and some systems are already used to enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems. To improve the utility of Internet-based systems, the key attributes of timeliness and data accuracy should be included in future evaluations of surveillance systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

Science.gov (United States)

Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

2016-12-01

The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

The impact of multiple information on coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Yaohui; Yan, Zhijun

2018-02-01

Growing interest has emerged in the study of the interplay between awareness and epidemics in multiplex networks. However, previous studies on this issue usually assume that all aware individuals take the same level of precautions, ignoring individual heterogeneity. In this paper, we investigate the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks considering individual heterogeneity. Here, the precaution levels are heterogeneous and depend on three types of information: contact information and local and global prevalence information. The results show that contact-based precautions can decrease the epidemic prevalence and augment the epidemic threshold, but prevalence-based precautions, regardless of local or global information, can only decrease the epidemic prevalence. Moreover, unlike previous studies in single-layer networks, we do not find a greater impact of local prevalence information on the epidemic prevalence compared to global prevalence information. In addition, we find that the altruistic behaviors of infected individuals can effectively suppress epidemic spreading, especially when the level of contact-based precaution is high.

Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

2007-05-01

Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p first year of all 22 large outbreaks of typhus in recent Mexican history. No distinction is made between times of peace and war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

Spatio-temporal variation in prevalence of Rift Valley fever: a post-epidemic serum survey in cattle and wildlife in Kenya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olivia Wesula Lwande

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF is a fatal arthropod-borne zoonotic disease of livestock and humans. Since the identification of RVF in Kenya in the 1930s, repeated epizootics and epidemics coinciding with El Niño events have occurred in several locations in Africa and Saudi Arabia, causing mass deaths of livestock and humans. RVF is of great interest worldwide because of its negative effect on international livestock trade and its potential to spread globally. The latter is due to the increasing incidence of extreme climatic phenomena caused by global warming, as well as to the increase in global trade and international travel. How RVF is maintained and sustained between epidemics and epizootics is not clearly understood, but it has been speculated that wildlife reservoirs and trans-ovarian transmission in the vector may be important. Several studies have examined the role of wildlife and livestock in isolation or in a limited geographical location within the one country over a short time (usually less than a year. In this study, we examined the seroprevalence of anti-RVF antibodies in cattle and several wildlife species from several locations in Kenya over an inter-epidemic period spanning up to 7 years. Methods: A serological survey of immunoglobulin G (IgG antibodies to RVF using competitive ELISA was undertaken on 297 serum samples from different wildlife species at various locations in Kenya. The samples were collected between 2008 and 2015. Serum was also collected in 2014 from 177 cattle from Ol Pejeta Conservancy; 113 of the cattle were in close contact with wildlife and the other 64 were kept separate from buffalo and large game by an electric fence. Results: The seroprevalence of RVF virus (RVFV antibody was 11.6% in wildlife species during the study period. Cattle that could come in contact with wildlife and large game were all negative for RVFV. The seroprevalence was relatively high in elephants, rhinoceros, and buffalo, but

Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

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Tom Britton

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

2016-01-01

textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

Kanpur epidemic: Time course

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

Inter-epidemic transmission of Rift Valley fever in livestock in the Kilombero River Valley, Tanzania: a cross-sectional survey.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert D Sumaye

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In recent years, evidence of Rift Valley fever (RVF transmission during inter-epidemic periods in parts of Africa has increasingly been reported. The inter-epidemic transmissions generally pass undetected where there is no surveillance in the livestock or human populations. We studied the presence of and the determinants for inter-epidemic RVF transmission in an area experiencing annual flooding in southern Tanzania. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional sero-survey was conducted in randomly selected cattle, sheep and goats in the Kilombero river valley from May to August 2011, approximately four years after the 2006/07 RVF outbreak in Tanzania. The exposure status to RVF virus (RVFV was determined using two commercial ELISA kits, detecting IgM and IgG antibodies in serum. Information about determinants was obtained through structured interviews with herd owners. FINDINGS: An overall seroprevalence of 11.3% (n = 1680 was recorded; 5.5% in animals born after the 2006/07 RVF outbreak and 22.7% in animals present during the outbreak. There was a linear increase in prevalence in the post-epidemic annual cohorts. Nine inhibition-ELISA positive samples were also positive for RVFV IgM antibodies indicating a recent infection. The spatial distribution of seroprevalence exhibited a few hotspots. The sex difference in seroprevalence in animals born after the previous epidemic was not significant (6.1% vs. 4.6% for females and males respectively, p = 0.158 whereas it was significant in animals present during the outbreak (26.0% vs. 7.8% for females and males respectively, p15 km from the flood plain were more likely to have antibodies than those living <5 km (OR 1.92; 95% CI 1.04-3.56. Species, breed, herd composition, grazing practices and altitude were not associated with seropositivity. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate post-epidemic transmission of RVFV in the study area. The linear increase in seroprevalence in the post-epidemic annual cohorts

An epidemic of illicit fentanyl deaths in Cook County, Illinois: September 2005 through April 2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Denton, J Scott; Donoghue, Edmund R; McReynolds, Jennifer; Kalelkar, Mitra B

2008-03-01

Between September 2005 and April 2007, 350 fentanyl intoxication deaths were investigated and certified by the Cook County Medical Examiners Office. Investigations revealed that the majority of these fatalities were by intravenous injection of a white powder followed by a rapid collapse. The fentanyl was clandestinely produced in a lab in Toluca, Mexico and sold by the Mickey Cobra street gang. The term "Drop Dead" was coined for this "tainted heroin." Postmortem samples were screened by ELISA and confirmed by standard GC-MS methods. Fentanyl fatalities peaked at 47 per month in May and June 2006. Fifty-two percent were single fentanyl intoxications, with the remainder accompanied by either cocaine, morphine from heroin, or alcohol. This epidemic stressed the limited resources of the toxicology laboratory and autopsy service of the Medical Examiners Office. The clandestine lab was terminated, distributing gang members and leaders arrested, and the epidemic ceased in April 2007.

Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

2017-02-01

The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

2011-01-01

Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

2012-01-01

We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Hacker, Mariana A; Leite, Iuri C; Renton, Adrian; Torres, Tania Guillén de; Gracie, Renata; Bastos, Francisco I

2006-04-01

The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs) in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000) were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates). In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana A. Hacker

2006-04-01

Full Text Available The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000 were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates. In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

Heightened vulnerability to MDR-TB epidemics after controlling drug-susceptible TB.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason D Bishai

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/. Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen. At a case detection rate of 75%, improving therapeutic compliance from 50% to 75% can reduce the probability of an epidemic from 45% to 15%. Paradoxically, improving the case-detection rate from 50% to 75% when compliance with DOT is constant at 75% increases the probability of MDR-TB epidemics from 3% to 45%.The ability of MDR-TB to spread depends on the prevalence of drug-susceptible TB. Immunologic protection conferred by exposure to drug-susceptible TB can be a crucial factor that prevents MDR-TB epidemics when TB treatment is poor. Any single population that successfully reduces its burden of drug-susceptible TB will have reduced herd immunity to externally or internally introduced strains of MDR-TB and can experience heightened vulnerability to an epidemic. Since countries with good TB control may be more vulnerable, their self interest dictates greater promotion of case detection and DOTS implementation in countries with poor control to control their risk of MDR-TB.

Modeling and Analysis of Epidemic Diffusion within Small-World Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Liu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available To depict the rule of epidemic diffusion, two different models, the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS model and the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIQRS model, are proposed and analyzed within small-world network in this paper. Firstly, the epidemic diffusion models are constructed with mean-filed theory, and condition for the occurrence of disease diffusion is explored. Then, the existence and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium for these two complex epidemic systems are proved by differential equations knowledge and Routh-Hurwiz theory. At last, a numerical example which includes key parameters analysis and critical topic discussion is presented to test how well the proposed two models may be applied in practice. These works may provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with epidemic diffusion controlling problems.

Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yun; Ding, Li; Huang, Yun-Han; Guan, Zhi-Hong

2016-12-01

In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. Project supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61403284, 61272114, 61673303, and 61672112) and the Marine Renewable Energy Special Fund Project of the State Oceanic Administration of China (Grant No. GHME2013JS01).

Epidemic transmission on random mobile network with diverse infection periods

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Kezan; Yu, Hong; Zeng, Zhaorong; Ding, Yong; Ma, Zhongjun

2015-05-01

The heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity and time-varying topological structure are two realistic factors when we study epidemics on complex networks. Current research results have shown that the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can increase the epidemic threshold in a random mobile dynamical network with the same infection period. In this paper, we will focus on random mobile dynamical networks with diverse infection periods due to people's different constitutions and external circumstances. Theoretical results indicate that the epidemic threshold of the random mobile network with diverse infection periods is larger than the counterpart with the same infection period. Moreover, the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can play a significant impact on disease transmission. In particular, the homogeneity of individuals will avail to the spreading of epidemics. Numerical examples verify further our theoretical results very well.

A Data-Driven Air Transportation Delay Propagation Model Using Epidemic Process Models

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B. Baspinar

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In air transport network management, in addition to defining the performance behavior of the system’s components, identification of their interaction dynamics is a delicate issue in both strategic and tactical decision-making process so as to decide which elements of the system are “controlled” and how. This paper introduces a novel delay propagation model utilizing epidemic spreading process, which enables the definition of novel performance indicators and interaction rates of the elements of the air transportation network. In order to understand the behavior of the delay propagation over the network at different levels, we have constructed two different data-driven epidemic models approximating the dynamics of the system: (a flight-based epidemic model and (b airport-based epidemic model. The flight-based epidemic model utilizing SIS epidemic model focuses on the individual flights where each flight can be in susceptible or infected states. The airport-centric epidemic model, in addition to the flight-to-flight interactions, allows us to define the collective behavior of the airports, which are modeled as metapopulations. In network model construction, we have utilized historical flight-track data of Europe and performed analysis for certain days involving certain disturbances. Through this effort, we have validated the proposed delay propagation models under disruptive events.

Potential worldwide distribution of Fusarium dry root rot in common beans based on the optimal environment for disease occurrence.

Science.gov (United States)

Macedo, Renan; Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Yoshida, Fernanda; Silva-Abud, Lidianne Lemes; Lobo, Murillo

2017-01-01

Root rots are a constraint for staple food crops and a long-lasting food security problem worldwide. In common beans, yield losses originating from root damage are frequently attributed to dry root rot, a disease caused by the Fusarium solani species complex. The aim of this study was to model the current potential distribution of common bean dry root rot on a global scale and to project changes based on future expectations of climate change. Our approach used a spatial proxy of the field disease occurrence, instead of solely the pathogen distribution. We modeled the pathogen environmental requirements in locations where in-situ inoculum density seems ideal for disease manifestation. A dataset of 2,311 soil samples from commercial farms assessed from 2002 to 2015 allowed us to evaluate the environmental conditions associated with the pathogen's optimum inoculum density for disease occurrence, using a lower threshold as a spatial proxy. We encompassed not only the optimal conditions for disease occurrence but also the optimal pathogen's density required for host infection. An intermediate inoculum density of the pathogen was the best disease proxy, suggesting density-dependent mechanisms on host infection. We found a strong convergence on the environmental requirements of both the host and the disease development in tropical areas, mostly in Brazil, Central America, and African countries. Precipitation and temperature variables were important for explaining the disease occurrence (from 17.63% to 43.84%). Climate change will probably move the disease toward cooler regions, which in Brazil are more representative of small-scale farming, although an overall shrink in total area (from 48% to 49% in 2050 and 26% to 41% in 2070) was also predicted. Understanding pathogen distribution and disease risks in an evolutionary context will therefore support breeding for resistance programs and strategies for dry root rot management in common beans.

Potential worldwide distribution of Fusarium dry root rot in common beans based on the optimal environment for disease occurrence.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renan Macedo

Full Text Available Root rots are a constraint for staple food crops and a long-lasting food security problem worldwide. In common beans, yield losses originating from root damage are frequently attributed to dry root rot, a disease caused by the Fusarium solani species complex. The aim of this study was to model the current potential distribution of common bean dry root rot on a global scale and to project changes based on future expectations of climate change. Our approach used a spatial proxy of the field disease occurrence, instead of solely the pathogen distribution. We modeled the pathogen environmental requirements in locations where in-situ inoculum density seems ideal for disease manifestation. A dataset of 2,311 soil samples from commercial farms assessed from 2002 to 2015 allowed us to evaluate the environmental conditions associated with the pathogen's optimum inoculum density for disease occurrence, using a lower threshold as a spatial proxy. We encompassed not only the optimal conditions for disease occurrence but also the optimal pathogen's density required for host infection. An intermediate inoculum density of the pathogen was the best disease proxy, suggesting density-dependent mechanisms on host infection. We found a strong convergence on the environmental requirements of both the host and the disease development in tropical areas, mostly in Brazil, Central America, and African countries. Precipitation and temperature variables were important for explaining the disease occurrence (from 17.63% to 43.84%. Climate change will probably move the disease toward cooler regions, which in Brazil are more representative of small-scale farming, although an overall shrink in total area (from 48% to 49% in 2050 and 26% to 41% in 2070 was also predicted. Understanding pathogen distribution and disease risks in an evolutionary context will therefore support breeding for resistance programs and strategies for dry root rot management in common beans.

Know your epidemic, know your response: targeting HIV in Asia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lazarus, Jeff; Curth, Nadja; Bridge, Jamie

2010-01-01

This article provides an overview of the HIV epidemic in Asia, the context within which the epidemic is evolving, and the key actions to address the challenges faced by countries and risk groups. HIV epidemics across Asia are predominantly concentrated among most-at-risk populations. Although...... prevention and treatment services. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 and to achieve universal access to HIV treatment, these barriers must be overcome across Asia. High-impact programs must be targeted at those in need, with continuous...

Application of epidemic algorithms for smart grids control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krkoleva, Aleksandra

2012-01-01

Smart Grids are a new concept for electricity networks development, aiming to provide economically efficient and sustainable power system by integrating effectively the actions and needs of the network users. The thesis addresses the Smart Grids concept, with emphasis on the control strategies developed on the basis of epidemic algorithms, more specifically, gossip algorithms. The thesis is developed around three Smart grid aspects: the changed role of consumers in terms of taking part in providing services within Smart Grids; the possibilities to implement decentralized control strategies based on distributed algorithms; and information exchange and benefits emerging from implementation of information and communication technologies. More specifically, the thesis presents a novel approach for providing ancillary services by implementing gossip algorithms. In a decentralized manner, by exchange of information between the consumers and by making decisions on local level, based on the received information and local parameters, the group achieves its global objective, i. e. providing ancillary services. The thesis presents an overview of the Smart Grids control strategies with emphasises on new strategies developed for the most promising Smart Grids concepts, as Micro grids and Virtual power plants. The thesis also presents the characteristics of epidemic algorithms and possibilities for their implementation in Smart Grids. Based on the research on epidemic algorithms, two applications have been developed. These applications are the main outcome of the research. The first application enables consumers, represented by their commercial aggregators, to participate in load reduction and consequently, to participate in balancing market or reduce the balancing costs of the group. In this context, the gossip algorithms are used for aggregator's message dissemination for load reduction and households and small commercial and industrial consumers to participate in maintaining

Reemergence of enterovirus 71 epidemic in northern Taiwan, 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Shu-Ting; Chiang, Pai-Shan; Chung, Wan-Yu; Chia, Min-Yuan; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Wang, Ying-Hsiang; Lin, Tzou-Yien; Lee, Min-Shi

2015-01-01

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) belongs to picornavirus family and could be classified phylogenetically into three major genogroups (A, B and C) including 11 genotypes (A, B1-B5 and C1-C5). Since 1997, EV71 has caused large-scale of epidemics with neurological complications in Asian children. In Taiwan, nationwide EV71 epidemics with different predominant genotypes have occurred cyclically since 1998. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred again in 2012. We conducted genetic and antigenic characterizations of the 2012 epidemic. Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH) is a medical center in northern Taiwan. In CGMH, specimens were collected from pediatric inpatients with suspected enterovirus infections for virus isolation. Enterovirus isolates were serotyped and genotyped and sera from EV71 inpatients were collected for measuring neutralizing antibody titers. There were 10, 16 and 99 EV71 inpatients identified in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. There were 82 EV71 isolates genotyped, which identified 17 genotype C4a viruses and 65 genotype B5 viruses. The genotype B5 viruses were not detected until November 2011 and caused epidemics in 2012. Interestingly, the B5-2011 viruses were genetically distinguishable from the B5 viruses causing the 2008 epidemic and are likely introduced from China or Southeastern Asia. Based on antigenic analysis, minor antigenic variations were detected among the B5-2008, B5-2011, C4a-2008 and C4a-2012 viruses but these viruses antigenically differed from genotype A. Genotype B5 and C4a viruses antigenically differ from genotype A viruses which have disappeared globally for 30 years but have been detected in China since 2008. Enterovirus surveillance should monitor genetic and antigenic variations of EV71.

Elecnuc. Nuclear power plants worldwide; Elecnuc. Les centrales nucleaires dans le monde

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-07-01

This small folder presents a digest of some useful information concerning the nuclear power plants worldwide and the situation of nuclear industry at the end of 1997: power production of nuclear origin, distribution of reactor types, number of installed units, evolution and prediction of reactor orders, connections to the grid and decommissioning, worldwide development of nuclear power, evolution of power production of nuclear origin, the installed power per reactor type, market shares and exports of the main nuclear engineering companies, power plants constructions and orders situation, evolution of reactors performances during the last 10 years, know-how and development of nuclear safety, the remarkable facts of 1997, the future of nuclear power and the energy policy trends. (J.S.)

Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.

Science.gov (United States)

Shanks, G Dennis; Hu, Zheng; Waller, Michael; Lee, Seung-eun; Terfa, Daniel; Howard, Alan; van Heyningen, Elizabeth; Brundage, John F

2014-02-15

Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

Temperature profile data from XBT casts from a world-wide distribution from the SKOGAFOSS and other vessels as part of NOAA's Volunteer Observing Ships Program from 06 February 2002 to 10 April 2002 (NODC Accession 0000718)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profiles were collected from XBT casts from the SKOGAFOSS and other platforms from a world-wide distribution from 06 February 2002 to 10 April 2002. Data...

Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

1994-05-01

To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

Worldwide molecular epidemiology of HIV

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry I Z Requejo

2006-04-01

Full Text Available Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV is the worldwide disseminated causative agent of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS. HIV is a member of the Lentivirus genus of Retroviridae family and is grouped in two types named HIV-1 and HIV-2. These viruses have a notable ability to mutate and adapt to the new conditions of human environment. A large incidence of errors at the transcriptional level results in changes on the genetic bases during the reproductive cycle. The elevated genomic variability of HIV has carried important implications for the diagnosis, treatment and prevention as well as epidemiologic investigations. The present review describes important definitions and geographical distribution of subtypes, circulating recombinant forms and other genomic variations of HIV. The present study aimed at leading students of Biomedical Sciences and public health laboratory staff guidance to general and specific knowledge about the genomic variability of the HIV.

Epidemic spreading on contact networks with adaptive weights.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

2013-01-21

The heterogeneous patterns of interactions within a population are often described by contact networks, but the variety and adaptivity of contact strengths are usually ignored. This paper proposes a modified epidemic SIS model with a birth-death process and nonlinear infectivity on an adaptive and weighted contact network. The links' weights, named as 'adaptive weights', which indicate the intimacy or familiarity between two connected individuals, will reduce as the disease develops. Through mathematical and numerical analyses, conditions are established for population extermination, disease extinction and infection persistence. Particularly, it is found that the fixed weights setting can trigger the epidemic incidence, and that the adaptivity of weights cannot change the epidemic threshold but it can accelerate the disease decay and lower the endemic level. Finally, some corresponding control measures are suggested. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asthma in Latin America: the dawn of a new epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Pitrez, Paulo M; Stein, Renato T

2008-10-01

Asthma is a heterogeneous disease with high morbidity worldwide. Unlike the low prevalence of asthma and allergy found in many developing countries, especially in rural settings, its prevalence in Latin America is high. In these sites, nonatopic asthma seems to be the most common phenotype observed among school-age children. Therefore, it seems that asthma in Latin America has some particular characteristics that will be presented and discussed in this article. The prevalence of asthma-like symptoms in childhood is high in many populations studied in Latin America with similar frequencies to those reported in more developed countries. However, the mechanisms and risk factors associated with nonatopic asthma, which is the most prevalent phenotype in this region, have been scarcely studied. The better understanding of asthma phenotypes that prevail in Latin America and the investigation of determining factor studies may help establish new diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. These findings should affect public health policies for this new asthma epidemic through the combination of the atopic and nonatopic phenotypes. We hope that this article sheds some new light into these important and most relevant questions.

Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Duanming; He Minhua; Yu Xiaoling; Pan Guijun; Sun Hongzhang; Su Xiangying; Sun Fan; Yin Yanping; Li Rui; Liu Dan

2006-01-01

We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady states of epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δ c and p c below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δ c , it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG Duan-Ming; LIU Dan; HE Min-Hua; YU Xiao-Ling; PAN Gui-Jun; SUN Hong-Zhang; SU Xiang-Ying; SUN Fan; YIN Yan-Ping; LI Rui

2006-01-01

We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady statesof epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δc and pc below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δc, it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

Unusual dengue virus 3 epidemic in Nicaragua, 2009.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gamaliel Gutierrez

2011-11-01

Full Text Available The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4 cause the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans worldwide. In 2009, Nicaragua experienced the largest dengue epidemic in over a decade, marked by unusual clinical presentation, as observed in two prospective studies of pediatric dengue in Managua. From August 2009-January 2010, 212 dengue cases were confirmed among 396 study participants at the National Pediatric Reference Hospital. In our parallel community-based cohort study, 170 dengue cases were recorded in 2009-10, compared to 13-65 cases in 2004-9. In both studies, significantly more patients experienced "compensated shock" (poor capillary refill plus cold extremities, tachycardia, tachypnea, and/or weak pulse in 2009-10 than in previous years (42.5% [90/212] vs. 24.7% [82/332] in the hospital study (p<0.001 and 17% [29/170] vs. 2.2% [4/181] in the cohort study (p<0.001. Signs of poor peripheral perfusion presented significantly earlier (1-2 days in 2009-10 than in previous years according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. In the hospital study, 19.8% of subjects were transferred to intensive care, compared to 7.1% in previous years - similar to the cohort study. DENV-3 predominated in 2008-9, 2009-10, and 2010-11, and full-length sequencing revealed no major genetic changes from 2008-9 to 2010-11. In 2008-9 and 2010-11, typical dengue was observed; only in 2009-10 was unusual presentation noted. Multivariate analysis revealed only "2009-10" as a significant risk factor for Dengue Fever with Compensated Shock. Interestingly, circulation of pandemic influenza A-H1N1 2009 in Managua was shifted such that it overlapped with the dengue epidemic. We hypothesize that prior influenza A H1N1 2009 infection may have modulated subsequent DENV infection, and initial results of an ongoing study suggest increased risk of shock among children with anti-H1N1-2009 antibodies. This study demonstrates that parameters other than serotype, viral

Global stability of a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on networks with individual awareness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Ke-Zan; Xu Zhong-Pu; Zhu Guang-Hu; Ding Yong

2014-01-01

Recent research results indicate that individual awareness can play an important influence on epidemic spreading in networks. By local stability analysis, a significant conclusion is that the embedded awareness in an epidemic network can increase its epidemic threshold. In this paper, by using limit theory and dynamical system theory, we further give global stability analysis of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks with awareness. Results show that the obtained epidemic threshold is also a global stability condition for its endemic equilibrium, which implies the embedded awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold globally. Some numerical examples are presented to verify the theoretical results. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

Statistics of Epidemics in Networks by Passing Messages

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Munik Kumar

Epidemic processes are common out-of-equilibrium phenomena of broad interdisciplinary interest. In this thesis, we show how message-passing approach can be a helpful tool for simulating epidemic models in disordered medium like networks, and in particular for estimating the probability that a given node will become infectious at a particular time. The sort of dynamics we consider are stochastic, where randomness can arise from the stochastic events or from the randomness of network structures. As in belief propagation, variables or messages in message-passing approach are defined on the directed edges of a network. However, unlike belief propagation, where the posterior distributions are updated according to Bayes' rule, in message-passing approach we write differential equations for the messages over time. It takes correlations between neighboring nodes into account while preventing causal signals from backtracking to their immediate source, and thus avoids "echo chamber effects" where a pair of adjacent nodes each amplify the probability that the other is infectious. In our first results, we develop a message-passing approach to threshold models of behavior popular in sociology. These are models, first proposed by Granovetter, where individuals have to hear about a trend or behavior from some number of neighbors before adopting it themselves. In thermodynamic limit of large random networks, we provide an exact analytic scheme while calculating the time dependence of the probabilities and thus learning about the whole dynamics of bootstrap percolation, which is a simple model known in statistical physics for exhibiting discontinuous phase transition. As an application, we apply a similar model to financial networks, studying when bankruptcies spread due to the sudden devaluation of shared assets in overlapping portfolios. We predict that although diversification may be good for individual institutions, it can create dangerous systemic effects, and as a result

Obesity, insulin resistance and diabetes--a worldwide epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Seidell, J C

Obesity is now commonly defined in adults as a BMI > 30 kg/m2. The prevalence of obesity in established market economies (Europe, USA, Canada, Australia, etc.) varies greatly, but a weighed estimate suggests an average prevalence in the order of 15-20%. The prevalence in these countries generally

Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

2009-01-01

Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

Science.gov (United States)

Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population

Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

Science.gov (United States)

Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

2007-03-01

The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

The importance of thinking beyond the water-supply in cholera epidemics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Phelps, Matthew D.; Azman, Andrew S.; Lewnard, Joseph A.

2017-01-01

the contribution of long-cycle waterborne transmission between neighborhoods using historical municipal water infrastructure data, fitting the force of infection from hydraulic flow, then comparing model performance. We found the epidemic was characterized by considerable transmission heterogeneity. Some...... municipal water quality. We recommend public health planners consider programs aimed at interrupting short-cycle transmission as essential tools in the cholera control arsenal. Author summary: John Snow’s seminal work on the London cholera epidemic and Broadway pump helped establish cholera......-cycle transmission to the epidemic. We find transmission between neighborhoods during the epidemic did not follow water pipe connections, suggesting little evidence of long-cycle transmission. Instead, we suggest that short-cycle transmission was likely critical to the propagation of the outbreak. Interventions...

Worldwide seismicity in view of non-extensive statistical physics

Science.gov (United States)

Chochlaki, Kaliopi; Vallianatos, Filippos; Michas, George

2014-05-01

In the present work we study the distribution of worldwide shallow seismic events occurred from 1981 to 2011 extracted from the CMT catalog, with magnitude equal or greater than Mw 5.0. Our analysis based on the subdivision of the Earth surface into seismic zones that are homogeneous with regards to seismic activity and orientation of the predominant stress field. To this direction we use the Flinn-Engdahl regionalization (Flinn and Engdahl, 1965), which consists of 50 seismic zones as modified by Lombardi and Marzocchi (2007), where grouped the 50 FE zones into larger tectonically homogeneous ones, utilizing the cumulative moment tensor method. As a result Lombardi and Marzocchi (2007), limit the initial 50 regions to 39 ones, in which we apply the non- extensive statistical physics approach. The non-extensive statistical physics seems to be the most adequate and promising methodological tool for analyzing complex systems, such as the Earth's interior. In this frame, we introduce the q-exponential formulation as the expression of probability distribution function that maximizes the Sq entropy as defined by Tsallis, (1988). In the present work we analyze the interevent time distribution between successive earthquakes by a q-exponential function in each of the seismic zones defined by Lombardi and Marzocchi (2007).confirming the importance of long-range interactions and the existence of a power-law approximation in the distribution of the interevent times. Our findings supports the ideas of universality within the Tsallis approach to describe Earth's seismicity and present strong evidence on temporal clustering of seismic activity in each of the tectonic zones analyzed. Our analysis as applied in worldwide seismicity with magnitude equal or greater than Mw 5.5 and 6.) is presented and the dependence of our result on the cut-off magnitude is discussed. This research has been funded by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national resources under the

Physical, biological, and chemical data from radiometer, profiling reflectance radiometer, and CTD casts in a world-wide distribution as part of the SeaWiFS/SIMBIOS project from 13 September 1981 to 16 December 1999 (NODC Accession 0000632)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Physical, biological, and chemical data were collected using radiometer, profiling reflectance radiometer, and CTD casts in a world-wide distribution from 13...

Viral epidemics in a cell culture: novel high resolution data and their interpretation by a percolation theory based model.

Science.gov (United States)

Gönci, Balázs; Németh, Valéria; Balogh, Emeric; Szabó, Bálint; Dénes, Ádám; Környei, Zsuzsanna; Vicsek, Tamás

2010-12-20

Because of its relevance to everyday life, the spreading of viral infections has been of central interest in a variety of scientific communities involved in fighting, preventing and theoretically interpreting epidemic processes. Recent large scale observations have resulted in major discoveries concerning the overall features of the spreading process in systems with highly mobile susceptible units, but virtually no data are available about observations of infection spreading for a very large number of immobile units. Here we present the first detailed quantitative documentation of percolation-type viral epidemics in a highly reproducible in vitro system consisting of tens of thousands of virtually motionless cells. We use a confluent astroglial monolayer in a Petri dish and induce productive infection in a limited number of cells with a genetically modified herpesvirus strain. This approach allows extreme high resolution tracking of the spatio-temporal development of the epidemic. We show that a simple model is capable of reproducing the basic features of our observations, i.e., the observed behaviour is likely to be applicable to many different kinds of systems. Statistical physics inspired approaches to our data, such as fractal dimension of the infected clusters as well as their size distribution, seem to fit into a percolation theory based interpretation. We suggest that our observations may be used to model epidemics in more complex systems, which are difficult to study in isolation.

[The cholera epidemic of 1833 and mortality in Mexico City].

Science.gov (United States)

Velasco, M D

1992-01-01

The author examines the impact of the 1833 cholera epidemic in Mexico City, Mexico, on social, economic, and political aspects of life in that city. She finds that some five percent of the population died during the epidemic, and enumerates them by age and sex.

Ethical, legal and societal considerations on Zika virus epidemics complications in scaling-up prevention and control strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Tambo, Ernest; Madjou, Ghislaine; Khayeka-Wandabwa, Christopher; Olalubi, Oluwasogo A; Chengho, Chryseis F; Khater, Emad I M

2017-08-25

Much of the fear and uncertainty around Zika epidemics stem from potential association between Zika virus (ZIKV) complications on infected pregnant women and risk of their babies being born with microcephaly and other neurological abnormalities. However, much remains unknown about its mode of transmission, diagnosis and long-term pathogenesis. Worries of these unknowns necessitate the need for effective and efficient psychosocial programs and medical-legal strategies to alleviate and mitigate ZIKV related burdens. In this light, local and global efforts in maintaining fundamental health principles of moral, medical and legal decision-making policies, and interventions to preserve and promote individual and collectiveHuman Rights, autonomy, protection of the most vulnerable, equity, dignity, integrity and beneficence that should not be confused and relegated by compassionate humanitarian assistance and support. This paper explores the potential medical and ethical-legal implications of ZIKV epidemics emergency response packages and strategies alongside optimizing reproductive and mental health policies, programs and best practice measures. Further long-term cross-borders operational research is required in elucidating Zika-related population-based epidemiology, ethical-medical and societal implications in guiding evidence-based local and global ZIKV maternal-child health complications related approaches and interventions. Core programs and interventions including future Zika safe and effective vaccines for global Zika immunization program in most vulnerable and affected countries and worldwide should be prioritized.

World-wide environmental problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wohlers, H.C.

1975-01-01

Man and the physical and natural resources necessary to support him in a civilized society are on a collision course. It is simple to say that man cannot continue to grow in number at an ever-increasing rate without a destructive effect upon the environment. Positive scientific proof for this impending calamity is not now available, yet many indications--sometimes physical and sometimes natural--point toward major world-wide environmental troubles in the near future. A number of environmental problems are described, particularly as they relate to the total world system. A computer model simulating future world-wide environmental trends from 1900 to 2100 A.D. is evaluated and suggested as a major tool for data-gathering purposes to determine the extent of world-wide environmental problems. It is suggested that scientists take an active role in the study of the environment, particularly in relation to man's future on earth

Predicting St. Louis encephalitis virus epidemics: lessons from recent, and not so recent, outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Day, J F

2001-01-01

St. Louis encephalitis virus was first identified as the cause of human disease in North America after a large urban epidemic in St. Louis, Missouri, during the summer of 1933. Since then, numerous outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis have occurred throughout the continent. In south Florida, a 1990 epidemic lasted from August 1990 through January 1991 and resulted in 226 clinical cases and 11 deaths in 28 counties. This epidemic severely disrupted normal activities throughout the southern half of the state for 5 months and adversely impacted tourism in the affected region. The accurate forecasting of mosquito-borne arboviral epidemics will help minimize their impact on urban and rural population centers. Epidemic predictability would help focus control efforts and public education about epidemic risks, transmission patterns, and elements of personal protection that reduce the probability of arboviral infection. Research associated with arboviral outbreaks has provided an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses associated with epidemic prediction. The purpose of this paper is to review lessons from past arboviral epidemics and determine how these observations might aid our ability to predict and respond to future outbreaks.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

2011-01-01

textabstractThis paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large

Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of global data. ... Backward multiple linear regression analysis identified the proportion of Muslims, physicians density, and adolescent fertility rate are as the three most prominent factors linked with the national HIV epidemic. Conclusions: The findings support ...

Residential surface soil guidance values applied worldwide to the original 2001 Stockholm Convention POP pesticides.

Science.gov (United States)

Jennings, Aaron A; Li, Zijian

2015-09-01

Surface soil contamination is a worldwide problem. Many regulatory jurisdictions attempt to control human exposures with regulatory guidance values (RGVs) that specify a soil's maximum allowable concentration. Pesticides are important soil contaminants because of their intentional toxicity and widespread surface soil application. Worldwide, at least 174 regulatory jurisdictions from 54 United Nations member states have published more than 19,400 pesticide RGVs for at least 739 chemically unique pesticides. This manuscript examines the variability of the guidance values that are applied worldwide to the original 2001 Stockholm Convention persistent organic pollutants (POP) pesticides (Aldrin, Chlordane, DDT, Dieldrin, Endrin, Heptachlor, Mirex, and Toxaphene) for which at least 1667 RGVs have been promulgated. Results indicate that the spans of the RGVs applied to each of these pesticides vary from 6.1 orders of magnitude for Toxaphene to 10.0 orders of magnitude for Mirex. The distribution of values across these value spans resembles the distribution of lognormal random variables, but also contain non-random value clusters. Approximately 40% of all the POP RGVs fall within uncertainty bounds computed from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) RGV cancer risk model. Another 22% of the values fall within uncertainty bounds computed from the USEPA's non-cancer risk model, but the cancer risk calculations yield the binding (lowest) value for all POP pesticides except Endrin. The results presented emphasize the continued need to rationalize the RGVs applied worldwide to important soil contaminants. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-stage effects of awareness cascade on epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Quantong; Jiang, Xin; Lei, Yanjun; Li, Meng; Ma, Yifang; Zheng, Zhiming

2015-01-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. The dynamic process with human awareness is called awareness cascade, during which individuals exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals [Borge-Holthoefer et al., J. Complex Networks 1, 3 (2013), 10.1093/comnet/cnt006]. In this paper, to investigate the epidemic spreading with awareness cascade, we propose a local awareness controlled contagion spreading model on multiplex networks. By theoretical analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations, we find the emergence of an abrupt transition of epidemic threshold βc with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5 , which induces two-stage effects on epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. These findings indicate that the increase of α can accelerate the outbreak of epidemics. Furthermore, a simple 1D lattice model is investigated to illustrate the two-stage-like sharp transition at αc≈0.5 . The results can give us a better understanding of why some epidemics cannot break out in reality and also provide a potential access to suppressing and controlling the awareness cascading systems.

Spread pattern of the first dengue epidemic in the city of Salvador, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carvalho Marilia S

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The explosive epidemics of dengue that have been occurring in various countries have stimulated investigation into new approaches to improve understanding of the problem and to develop new strategies for controlling the disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of diffusion of the first dengue epidemic that occurred in the city of Salvador in 1995. Methods The epidemiological charts and records of notified cases of dengue in Salvador in 1995 constituted the source of data. The cases of the disease were georeferenced according to census areas (spatial units and epidemiological weeks (temporal unit. Kernel density estimation was used to identify the pattern of spatial diffusion using the R-Project computer software program. Results Of the 2,006 census areas in the city, 1,400 (70% registered cases of dengue in 1995 and the spatial distribution of these records revealed that by the end of 1995 practically the entire city had been affected by the virus, with the largest concentration of cases occurring in the western region, composed of census areas with a high population density and predominantly horizontal residences compared to the eastern region of the city, where there is a predominance of vertical residential buildings. Conclusion The pattern found in this study shows the characteristics of the classic process of spreading by contagion that is common to most infectious diseases. It was possible to identify the epicenter of the epidemic from which centrifugal waves of the disease emanated. Our results suggest that, if a more agile control instrument existed that would be capable of rapidly reducing the vector population within a few days or of raising the group immunity of the population by means of a vaccine, it would theoretically be possible to adopt control actions around the epicenter of the epidemic and consequently reduce the incidence of the disease in the city. This finding emphasizes

Is thermogenesis a significant causal factor in preventing the "globesity" epidemic?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Jens Carl; Gilman, Andrew P; Odland, Jon Øyvind

2010-08-01

During the last four decades the world has experienced an epidemic of overweight individuals in affluent as well as developing countries. The WHO has predicted a "globesity epidemic" with more than 1 billion adults being overweight and at least 300 million of these being clinically obese. Obesity among children and adolescents is of great significance. From a global population perspective, this epidemic in weight gain and its sequelae are the largest public health problems identified to date and have very significant adverse implications for population health, and have by now almost reached the proportion of a pandemic. While genetic changes have been discussed as a cause of the epidemic, there has been too little time since its start to enable enough genetic adaptation to take place for this to provide a valid explanation. Traditionally positive energy balance and sedentary life style have been regarded as the primary causal factors; however, these factors have so far failed to provide explanations for the entire problem. For these reasons it seems warranted to investigate other possible co-factors contributing to the "globesity epidemic" and to find efficient strategies to counteract further increases in the size and nature of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a potential preventive co-factor, thermogenesis. Special attention has been paid to the influence of ambient temperature as a grossly neglected factor in the debate. As most people today live and work at ambient temperatures close to their body temperature (the thermal neutral point), we hypothesise that this is an important causal co-factor in the "globesity" epidemic. The hypothesis: The null hypothesis that adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue in adult humans is not significant for weight loss is rejected. We propose the hypothesis that homoeothermic living conditions close to the thermogenic neutral level is an important causal co-factor in the "Globesity" Epidemic

[MPOWER--strategy for fighting the global tobacco epidemic].

Science.gov (United States)

Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

2009-01-01

It is estimated that tobacco use may cause death of 5 million people in 2008, which is higher than the number of deaths attributed to tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS and malaria taken together. By 2030, the number of deaths related to the tobacco epidemic could exceed annually even 8 million. Despite many difficulties, a growing number of countries undertake intensive actions aimed at tobacco control. The objective of this paper was to discuss the major objectives of the MPOWER Report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). The MPOWER package consists a set of six key and most effective strategies for fighting the global tobacco epidemic: 1) Monitoring tobacco consumption and the effectiveness of preventive measures; 2) Protect people from tobacco smoke; 3) Offer help to quit tobacco use; 4) Warn about the dangers of tobacco; 5) Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and 6) Raise taxes on tobacco. It is proven that these strategies implemented in the compatible way, effectively decreases tobacco use. In addition, MPOWER comprises epidemiological data, information on implemented tobacco control measures and their efficiency. MPOWER is the only one document of a somewhat strategic nature that is a source of information on the spread of tobacco epidemic, as well as of suggestions concerning specific actions for supporting the fight against this epidemic.

Viral conductance : Quantifying the robustness of networks with respect to spread of epidemics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Youssef, M.; Kooij, R.E.; Scoglio, C.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel measure, viral conductance (VC), to assess the robustness of complex networks with respect to the spread of SIS epidemics. In contrast to classical measures that assess the robustness of networks based on the epidemic threshold above which an epidemic takes place,

Eight challenges for network epidemic models

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Lorenzo Pellis

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

The worldwide ionospheric data base

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bilitza, D.

1989-04-01

The worldwide ionospheric data base is scattered over the entire globe. Different data sets are held at different institutions in the U.S., U.S.S.R., Australia, Europe, and Asia. The World Data Centers on the different continents archive and distribute part of the huge data base; the scope and cross section of the individual data holdings depend on the regional and special interest of the center. An attempt is made to pull together all the strings that point toward different ionospheric data holdings. Requesters are provided with the information about what is available and where to get it. An attempt is also made to evaluate the reliability and compatibility of the different data sets based on the consensus in the ionospheric research community. The status and accuracy of the standard ionospheric models are also discussed because they may facilitate first order assessment of ionospheric effects. This is a first step toward an ionospheric data directory within the framework of NSSDC's master directory

The worldwide ionospheric data base

Science.gov (United States)

Bilitza, Dieter

1989-01-01

The worldwide ionospheric data base is scattered over the entire globe. Different data sets are held at different institutions in the U.S., U.S.S.R., Australia, Europe, and Asia. The World Data Centers on the different continents archive and distribute part of the huge data base; the scope and cross section of the individual data holdings depend on the regional and special interest of the center. An attempt is made to pull together all the strings that point toward different ionospheric data holdings. Requesters are provided with the information about what is available and where to get it. An attempt is also made to evaluate the reliability and compatibility of the different data sets based on the consensus in the ionospheric research community. The status and accuracy of the standard ionospheric models are also discussed because they may facilitate first order assessment of ionospheric effects. This is a first step toward an ionospheric data directory within the framework of NSSDC's master directory.

Reiter′s Disease - Clinical Profile of Epidemic Form

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H S Girgia

1980-01-01

Full Text Available Absence of urethritis need not exclude the possiblity of Reiter′s disease in young males where conjunctivitis and polyarthritis are cardinal features. Appearance of cutaneous lesion early in the course of the disease heralds a poor prognosis specially in the rare epidemic form of the disease. Two cases of Reiter′s disease are reported. Both belonged to the dysentric type of the disease; sometimes ref to as the epidemic form. Relatively high dose of steroids necessary to control symptoms.

On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

Epidemic propagation on adaptive coevolutionary networks with preferential local-world reconnecting strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping; Gong Yong-Wang

2013-01-01

In the propagation of an epidemic in a population, individuals adaptively adjust their behavior to avoid the risk of an epidemic. Differently from existing studies where new links are established randomly, a local link is established preferentially in this paper. We propose a new preferentially reconnecting edge strategy depending on spatial distance (PR-SD). For the PR-SD strategy, the new link is established at random with probability p and in a shortest distance with the probability 1 − p. We establish the epidemic model on an adaptive network using Cellular Automata, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by numerical simulations. The results show that the smaller the value of parameter p, the more difficult the epidemic spread is. The PR-SD strategy breaks long-range links and establishes as many short-range links as possible, which causes the network efficiency to decrease quickly and the propagation of the epidemic is restrained effectively. (general)

Dynamic behavior of the interaction between epidemics and cascades on heterogeneous networks

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Jiang, Lurong; Jin, Xinyu; Xia, Yongxiang; Ouyang, Bo; Wu, Duanpo

2014-12-01

Epidemic spreading and cascading failure are two important dynamical processes on complex networks. They have been investigated separately for a long time. But in the real world, these two dynamics sometimes may interact with each other. In this paper, we explore a model combined with the SIR epidemic spreading model and a local load sharing cascading failure model. There exists a critical value of the tolerance parameter for which the epidemic with high infection probability can spread out and infect a fraction of the network in this model. When the tolerance parameter is smaller than the critical value, the cascading failure cuts off the abundance of paths and blocks the spreading of the epidemic locally. While the tolerance parameter is larger than the critical value, the epidemic spreads out and infects a fraction of the network. A method for estimating the critical value is proposed. In simulations, we verify the effectiveness of this method in the uncorrelated configuration model (UCM) scale-free networks.

Descriptive epidemiology of typhoid fever during an epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2012.

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Polonsky, Jonathan A; Martínez-Pino, Isabel; Nackers, Fabienne; Chonzi, Prosper; Manangazira, Portia; Van Herp, Michel; Maes, Peter; Porten, Klaudia; Luquero, Francisco J

2014-01-01

Typhoid fever remains a significant public health problem in developing countries. In October 2011, a typhoid fever epidemic was declared in Harare, Zimbabwe - the fourth enteric infection epidemic since 2008. To orient control activities, we described the epidemiology and spatiotemporal clustering of the epidemic in Dzivaresekwa and Kuwadzana, the two most affected suburbs of Harare. A typhoid fever case-patient register was analysed to describe the epidemic. To explore clustering, we constructed a dataset comprising GPS coordinates of case-patient residences and randomly sampled residential locations (spatial controls). The scale and significance of clustering was explored with Ripley K functions. Cluster locations were determined by a random labelling technique and confirmed using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. We analysed data from 2570 confirmed and suspected case-patients, and found significant spatiotemporal clustering of typhoid fever in two non-overlapping areas, which appeared to be linked to environmental sources. Peak relative risk was more than six times greater than in areas lying outside the cluster ranges. Clusters were identified in similar geographical ranges by both random labelling and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. The spatial scale at which typhoid fever clustered was highly localised, with significant clustering at distances up to 4.5 km and peak levels at approximately 3.5 km. The epicentre of infection transmission shifted from one cluster to the other during the course of the epidemic. This study demonstrated highly localised clustering of typhoid fever during an epidemic in an urban African setting, and highlights the importance of spatiotemporal analysis for making timely decisions about targetting prevention and control activities and reinforcing treatment during epidemics. This approach should be integrated into existing surveillance systems to facilitate early detection of epidemics and identify their spatial range.

Evaluating neighborhood structures for modeling intercity diffusion of large-scale dengue epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Hsu, Ching-Shun; Hu, Ming-Che

2018-05-03

Dengue fever is a vector-borne infectious disease that is transmitted by contact between vector mosquitoes and susceptible hosts. The literature has addressed the issue on quantifying the effect of individual mobility on dengue transmission. However, there are methodological concerns in the spatial regression model configuration for examining the effect of intercity-scale human mobility on dengue diffusion. The purposes of the study are to investigate the influence of neighborhood structures on intercity epidemic progression from pre-epidemic to epidemic periods and to compare definitions of different neighborhood structures for interpreting the spread of dengue epidemics. We proposed a framework for assessing the effect of model configurations on dengue incidence in 2014 and 2015, which were the most severe outbreaks in 70 years in Taiwan. Compared with the conventional model configuration in spatial regression analysis, our proposed model used a radiation model, which reflects population flow between townships, as a spatial weight to capture the structure of human mobility. The results of our model demonstrate better model fitting performance, indicating that the structure of human mobility has better explanatory power in dengue diffusion than the geometric structure of administration boundaries and geographic distance between centroids of cities. We also identified spatial-temporal hierarchy of dengue diffusion: dengue incidence would be influenced by its immediate neighboring townships during pre-epidemic and epidemic periods, and also with more distant neighbors (based on mobility) in pre-epidemic periods. Our findings suggest that the structure of population mobility could more reasonably capture urban-to-urban interactions, which implies that the hub cities could be a "bridge" for large-scale transmission and make townships that immediately connect to hub cities more vulnerable to dengue epidemics.

Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2012-07-07

Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

2016-12-01

Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Trading Freshness for Performance in Distributed Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

C. Hsieh, Deborah A. Wallach, Mike Burrows , Tushar Chandra, Andrew Fikes, and Robert E. Gruber. BigTable: A distributed storage system for structured... Larry Brilliant. Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data. Nature, pages 1012–1014, February 2009. 3.2 Goetz Graefe. Write

Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

2007-10-01

The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retno Widyaningrum

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

Defining epidemics in computer simulation models: How do definitions influence conclusions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolyn Orbann

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model structure. Papers describing computer models of infectious disease often lack a clear description of how the data are aggregated and whether or not non-epidemic runs are excluded from analyses. Given that there is no concrete quantitative definition of what constitutes an epidemic within the public health literature, each modeler must decide on a strategy for identifying epidemics during simulation runs. Here, an SEIR model was used to test the effects of how varying the cutoff for considering a run an epidemic changes potential interpretations of simulation outcomes. Varying the cutoff from 0% to 15% of the model population ever infected with the illness generated significant differences in numbers of dead and timing variables. These results are important for those who use models to form public health policy, in which questions of timing or implementation of interventions might be answered using findings from computer simulation models.

A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blower Sally

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the promise of a new universal long-term flu vaccine has become more tangible than ever before. Such a vaccine would protect against very many seasonal and pandemic flu strains for many years, making annual vaccination unnecessary. However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year. Findings To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics. Conclusions Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.

Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus 3C-Like Protease-Mediated Nucleocapsid Processing: Possible Link to Viral Cell Culture Adaptability.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaru-Ampornpan, Peera; Jengarn, Juggragarn; Wanitchang, Asawin; Jongkaewwattana, Anan

2017-01-15

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) causes severe diarrhea and high mortality rates in newborn piglets, leading to massive losses to the swine industry worldwide during recent epidemics. Intense research efforts are now focusing on defining viral characteristics that confer a growth advantage, pathogenicity, or cell adaptability in order to better understand the PEDV life cycle and identify suitable targets for antiviral or vaccine development. Here, we report a unique phenomenon of PEDV nucleocapsid (N) cleavage by the PEDV-encoded 3C-like protease (3Cpro) during infection. The identification of the 3Cpro cleavage site at the C terminus of N supported previous observations that PEDV 3Cpro showed a substrate requirement slightly different from that of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) 3Cpro and revealed a greater flexibility in its substrate recognition site. This cleavage motif is present in the majority of cell culture-adapted PEDV strains but is missing in emerging field isolates. Remarkably, reverse-genetics-derived cell culture-adapted PEDV AVCT12 harboring uncleavable N displayed growth retardation in Vero E6-APN cells compared to the wild-type virus. These observations altogether shed new light on the investigation and characterization of the PEDV nucleocapsid protein and its possible link to cell culture adaptation. Recurrent PEDV outbreaks have resulted in enormous economic losses to swine industries worldwide. To gain the upper hand in combating this disease, it is necessary to understand how this virus replicates and evades host immunity. Characterization of viral proteins provides important clues to mechanisms by which viruses survive and spread. Here, we characterized an intriguing phenomenon in which the nucleocapsids of some PEDV strains are proteolytically processed by the virally encoded main protease. Growth retardation in recombinant PEDV carrying uncleavable N suggests a replication advantage provided by the cleavage

Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

2014-02-21

Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

[Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

Science.gov (United States)

Hetzel, Géraldine

2014-01-01

The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

Estimating the transmission potential of supercritical processes based on the final size distribution of minor outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Yan, Ping; Sleeman, Candace K; Mode, Charles J

2012-02-07

Use of the final size distribution of minor outbreaks for the estimation of the reproduction numbers of supercritical epidemic processes has yet to be considered. We used a branching process model to derive the final size distribution of minor outbreaks, assuming a reproduction number above unity, and applying the method to final size data for pneumonic plague. Pneumonic plague is a rare disease with only one documented major epidemic in a spatially limited setting. Because the final size distribution of a minor outbreak needs to be normalized by the probability of extinction, we assume that the dispersion parameter (k) of the negative-binomial offspring distribution is known, and examine the sensitivity of the reproduction number to variation in dispersion. Assuming a geometric offspring distribution with k=1, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.97-1.38). When less dispersed with k=2, the maximum likelihood estimate of the reproduction number was 1.14. These estimates agreed with those published from transmission network analysis, indicating that the human-to-human transmission potential of the pneumonic plague is not very high. Given only minor outbreaks, transmission potential is not sufficiently assessed by directly counting the number of offspring. Since the absence of a major epidemic does not guarantee a subcritical process, the proposed method allows us to conservatively regard epidemic data from minor outbreaks as supercritical, and yield estimates of threshold values above unity. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing

2016-11-01

In this paper, we study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination. We obtain sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the stochastic system is also obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number Rbar0 of the deterministic system. Results show that time delay has important effects on the persistence and extinction of the epidemic.

Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: a spectral method.

Science.gov (United States)

Brand, Samuel P C; Tildesley, Michael J; Keeling, Matthew J

2015-04-07

Spatial structure and hence the spatial position of host populations plays a vital role in the spread of infection. In the majority of situations, it is only possible to predict the spatial spread of infection using simulation models, which can be computationally demanding especially for large population sizes. Here we develop an approximation method that vastly reduces this computational burden. We assume that the transmission rates between individuals or sub-populations are determined by a spatial transmission kernel. This kernel is assumed to be isotropic, such that the transmission rate is simply a function of the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals; as such this provides the ideal mechanism for modelling localised transmission in a spatial environment. We show that the spatial force of infection acting on all susceptibles can be represented as a spatial convolution between the transmission kernel and a spatially extended 'image' of the infection state. This representation allows the rapid calculation of stochastic rates of infection using fast-Fourier transform (FFT) routines, which greatly improves the computational efficiency of spatial simulations. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of this fast spectral rate recalculation (FSR) method with two examples: an idealised scenario simulating an SIR-type epidemic outbreak amongst N habitats distributed across a two-dimensional plane; the spread of infection between US cattle farms, illustrating that the FSR method makes continental-scale outbreak forecasting feasible with desktop processing power. The latter model demonstrates which areas of the US are at consistently high risk for cattle-infections, although predictions of epidemic size are highly dependent on assumptions about the tail of the transmission kernel. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperature profile data from XBT casts from a world-wide distribution from the SEA-LAND HAWAII and other platforms as part of NOAA's Volunteer Observing Ships Program from 05 January 2000 to 26 February 2002 (NODC Accession 0000679)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profiles were collected by using XBT casts from the SEA-LAND HAWAII and other platforms from a world-wide distribution from 05 January 2000 to 26...

Spread of epidemic disease on networks

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, M. E.

2002-07-01

The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

A break in the obesity epidemic?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

2015-01-01

Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qun; Chen, Qingmei; Jiang, Daqing

2016-05-01

This paper is concerned with the asymptotic properties of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic are established. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the epidemic is obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number R0 of the deterministic system.

The wisdom of crowds in action: Forecasting epidemic diseases with a web-based prediction market system.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Eldon Y; Tung, Chen-Yuan; Chang, Shu-Hsun

2016-08-01

The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of crowds on the Internet to effectively accomplish relatively high accuracy. This study presents the architecture of a PMS and demonstrates the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules. The system was implemented to predict infectious diseases in Taiwan with the wisdom of crowds in order to improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting. The PMS architecture contains three design components: database clusters, market engine, and Web applications. The system accumulated knowledge from 126 health professionals for 31 weeks to predict five disease indicators: the confirmed cases of dengue fever, the confirmed cases of severe and complicated influenza, the rate of enterovirus infections, the rate of influenza-like illnesses, and the confirmed cases of severe and complicated enterovirus infection. Based on the winning ratio, the PMS predicts the trends of three out of five disease indicators more accurately than does the existing system that uses the five-year average values of historical data for the same weeks. In addition, the PMS with the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules is easy to understand for health professionals and applicable to predict all the five disease indicators. The PMS architecture of this study affords organizations and individuals to implement it for various purposes in our society. The system can continuously update the data and improve prediction accuracy in monitoring and forecasting the trends of epidemic diseases. Future researchers could replicate and apply the PMS demonstrated in this study to more infectious diseases and wider

[Scabies epidemic in a sheltered workshop--what should be done?].

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, J; Wever, S; Lurz, C; Bröcker, E B

2000-02-01

Scabies is an infectious parasitic skin disease with a notable rising incidence in Germany. The disease is usually transmitted by close physical contact, but indirect spread e.g. by bedding is also possible. Due to its contagiousness, introduction of scabies into crowding living facilities, such as dormitories or kindergartens, can easily cause an epidemic outbreak. We describe an epidemic of scabies in a workshop for handicapped people in February 1998. A worker with severe scabies reported that numerous colleagues in both workshop and the associated hostel had complained of pruritus for months and that some of them already had undergone scabicide treatment. The number of contacts (staff, colleagues, friends, attendants, family) of our patient and the other already affected people was more than 460. The management of the workshop asked for help in handling the epidemic. We describe the cooperative efforts of the management, as well as hospital and private dermatologists, to evaluate all potential contacts and present a concept of treatment for the termination of such an epidemic outbreak of scabies.

Multiple effects of self-protection on the spreading of epidemics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zhigang; Zhang, Haifeng; Wang, Zhen

2014-01-01

Aside from the commonly considered strategies: vaccination or risk, in this work another basic policy self-protection strategy is incorporated into research of epidemics spreading. Then within the network-theoretical framework, we mainly explore the impact of self-protection strategy on the epidemic size and the eradication of infection. Interestingly, we find that the self-protection influence is multiple: given that the effectiveness of the self-protective strategy is negligible, nobody is willing to take up this act, both vaccination and risk traits dominate the whole system; On the contrary, when the effectiveness of self-protective policy is elevated, it becomes a popular strategy and the size of epidemic can be controlled at a relatively low level. However, one worse situation is present as well: when the effectiveness of self-protection is moderate, the infection probability and epidemic size can reach the maximal level. This is because that, under such a case, the emergence of the self-protective strategy neither inspires the enthusiasm of vaccination nor provides ideal effect

ATLAS Distributed Computing Automation

CERN Document Server

Schovancova, J; The ATLAS collaboration; Borrego, C; Campana, S; Di Girolamo, A; Elmsheuser, J; Hejbal, J; Kouba, T; Legger, F; Magradze, E; Medrano Llamas, R; Negri, G; Rinaldi, L; Sciacca, G; Serfon, C; Van Der Ster, D C

2012-01-01

The ATLAS Experiment benefits from computing resources distributed worldwide at more than 100 WLCG sites. The ATLAS Grid sites provide over 100k CPU job slots, over 100 PB of storage space on disk or tape. Monitoring of status of such a complex infrastructure is essential. The ATLAS Grid infrastructure is monitored 24/7 by two teams of shifters distributed world-wide, by the ATLAS Distributed Computing experts, and by site administrators. In this paper we summarize automation efforts performed within the ATLAS Distributed Computing team in order to reduce manpower costs and improve the reliability of the system. Different aspects of the automation process are described: from the ATLAS Grid site topology provided by the ATLAS Grid Information System, via automatic site testing by the HammerCloud, to automatic exclusion from production or analysis activities.

Worldwide Airfield Summary

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Worldwide Airfield Summary contains a selection of climatological data produced by the U.S. Air Force, Air Weather Service. The reports were compiled from dozens...

Temperature profile data from STD/CTD casts from the KNORR from a world-wide distribution during the International Decade of Ocean Exploration / Geochemical Ocean Section Study (IDOE/GEOSECS) project, 24 July 1972 - 09 June 1974 (NODC Accession 8200010)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature and salinity profile data were collected using STD/CTD casts from KNORR in a world-wide distribution from July 24, 1972 to June 9, 1974. Data were...

Dynamics of cholera epidemics with impulsive vaccination and disinfection.

Science.gov (United States)

Sisodiya, Omprakash Singh; Misra, O P; Dhar, Joydip

2018-04-01

Waterborne diseases have a tremendous influence on human life. The contaminated drinking water causes water-borne disease like cholera. Pulse vaccination is an important and effective strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A waterborne disease like cholera can also be controlled by using impulse technique. In this paper, we have proposed a delayed SEIRB epidemic model with impulsive vaccination and disinfection. We have studied the pulse vaccination strategy and sanitation to control the cholera disease. The existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic periodic solution are investigated both analytically and numerically. It is shown that there exists an infection-free periodic solution, using the impulsive dynamical system defined by the stroboscopic map. It is observed that the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive when the impulse period is less than some critical value. From the analysis of the model, we have obtained a sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic with pulse vaccination. The main highlight of this paper is to introduce impulse technique along with latent period into the SEIRB epidemic model to investigate the role of pulse vaccination and disinfection on the dynamics of the cholera epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Viral epidemics in a cell culture: novel high resolution data and their interpretation by a percolation theory based model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Balázs Gönci

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Because of its relevance to everyday life, the spreading of viral infections has been of central interest in a variety of scientific communities involved in fighting, preventing and theoretically interpreting epidemic processes. Recent large scale observations have resulted in major discoveries concerning the overall features of the spreading process in systems with highly mobile susceptible units, but virtually no data are available about observations of infection spreading for a very large number of immobile units. Here we present the first detailed quantitative documentation of percolation-type viral epidemics in a highly reproducible in vitro system consisting of tens of thousands of virtually motionless cells. We use a confluent astroglial monolayer in a Petri dish and induce productive infection in a limited number of cells with a genetically modified herpesvirus strain. This approach allows extreme high resolution tracking of the spatio-temporal development of the epidemic. We show that a simple model is capable of reproducing the basic features of our observations, i.e., the observed behaviour is likely to be applicable to many different kinds of systems. Statistical physics inspired approaches to our data, such as fractal dimension of the infected clusters as well as their size distribution, seem to fit into a percolation theory based interpretation. We suggest that our observations may be used to model epidemics in more complex systems, which are difficult to study in isolation.

Distributed Monitoring Infrastructure for Worldwide LHC Computing Grid

CERN Document Server

Andrade, Pedro; Bhatt, Kislay; Chand, Phool; Collados, David; Duggal, Vibhuti; Fuente, Paloma; Hayashi, Soichi; Imamagic, Emir; Joshi, Pradyumna; Kalmady, Rajesh; Karnani, Urvashi; Kumar, Vaibhav; Lapka, Wojciech; Quick, Robert; Tarragon, Jacobo; Teige, Scott; Triantafyllidis, Christos

2012-01-01

The journey of a monitoring probe from its development phase to the moment its execution result is presented in an availability report is a complex process. It goes through multiple phases such as development, testing, integration, release, deployment, execution, data aggregation, computation, and reporting. Further, it involves people with different roles (developers, site managers, VO managers, service managers, management), from different middleware providers (ARC, dCache, gLite, UNICORE and VDT), consortiums (WLCG, EMI, EGI, OSG), and operational teams (GOC, OMB, OTAG, CSIRT). The seamless harmonization of these distributed actors is in daily use for monitoring of the WLCG infrastructure. In this paper we describe the monitoring of the WLCG infrastructure from the operational perspective. We explain the complexity of the journey of a monitoring probe from its execution on a grid node to the visualization on the MyWLCG portal where it is exposed to other clients. This monitoring workflow profits from the i...

Epidemic spreading in networks with nonrandom long-range interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Estrada, Ernesto; Kalala-Mutombo, Franck; Valverde-Colmeiro, Alba

2011-09-01

An "infection," understood here in a very broad sense, can be propagated through the network of social contacts among individuals. These social contacts include both "close" contacts and "casual" encounters among individuals in transport, leisure, shopping, etc. Knowing the first through the study of the social networks is not a difficult task, but having a clear picture of the network of casual contacts is a very hard problem in a society of increasing mobility. Here we assume, on the basis of several pieces of empirical evidence, that the casual contacts between two individuals are a function of their social distance in the network of close contacts. Then, we assume that we know the network of close contacts and infer the casual encounters by means of nonrandom long-range (LR) interactions determined by the social proximity of the two individuals. This approach is then implemented in a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model accounting for the spread of infections in complex networks. A parameter called "conductance" controls the feasibility of those casual encounters. In a zero conductance network only contagion through close contacts is allowed. As the conductance increases the probability of having casual encounters also increases. We show here that as the conductance parameter increases, the rate of propagation increases dramatically and the infection is less likely to die out. This increment is particularly marked in networks with scale-free degree distributions, where infections easily become epidemics. Our model provides a general framework for studying epidemic spreading in networks with arbitrary topology with and without casual contacts accounted for by means of LR interactions.

A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with infectious force under intervention strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Yongli; Kang, Yun; Banerjee, Malay; Wang, Weiming

2015-12-01

In this paper, we extend a classical SIRS epidemic model with the infectious forces under intervention strategies from a deterministic framework to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) one through introducing random fluctuations. The value of our study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, by using the Markov semigroups theory, we prove that the reproduction number R0S can be used to govern the stochastic dynamics of SDE model. If R0S 1, under mild extra conditions, it has an endemic stationary distribution which leads to the stochastical persistence of the disease. Epidemiologically, we find that random fluctuations can suppress disease outbreak, which can provide us some useful control strategies to regulate disease dynamics.

Addressing Future Epidemics: Historical Human Rights Lessons from the AIDS Pandemic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ambar Mehta

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The Ebola epidemic in West Africa sparked many ethical and polarizing public health questions on how to adequately control transmission of the virus. These deliberations had and will continue to influence patients, healthcare workers, public perceptions of disease, and governmental responses. Such extensive and potential ramifications warranted an analysis of prior epidemics to sufficiently inform policy makers and prepare them and other authorities for future epidemics. We analyzed how the general public, medical institutions, federal government, and patients themselves responded during the early stages of the AIDS pandemic in two different countries and cultures, the United States and India. Discussion: Our analysis identified four key findings pertaining to the human rights of patients and healthcare workers and to the crucial roles of the government and medical community. The first demands that authoritative officials acknowledge the presence of high-risk behaviors and properly educate the public without stigmatizing groups of individuals. For this task, the medical community and federal government must form and display to the public a respectful and collaborative partnership towards battling the epidemic. These two synergistic endeavors will then allow appropriate officials to implement effective, yet civil, interventions for limiting transmission. Finally, the same officials must ensure that their interventions maintain the human rights of high-risk populations and of healthcare workers. Conclusions: Applying these findings to future epidemics of infectious diseases can aid policy makers in navigating complicated ethical and public health questions, and help prevent them from repeating past mistakes in handling epidemics.

Epidemic spread over networks with agent awareness and social distancing

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith

2016-04-20

We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary connected network topology when the agents receive personalized information about the current epidemic state. The agents utilize their available information to either reduce interactions with their neighbors (social distancing) when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent or resume normal interactions when they believe there is low risk of becoming infected. The information is a weighted combination of three sources: 1) the average states of nodes in contact neighborhoods 2) the average states of nodes in an information network 3) a global broadcast of the average epidemic state of the network. A 2n-state Markov Chain is first considered to model the disease dynamics with awareness, from which a mean-field discrete-time n-state dynamical system is derived, where each state corresponds to an agent\\'s probability of being infected. The nonlinear model is a lower bound of its linearized version about the origin. Hence, global stability of the origin (the diseasefree equilibrium) in the linear model implies global stability in the nonlinear model. When the origin is not stable, we show the existence of a nontrivial fixed point in the awareness model, which obeys a strict partial order in relation to the nontrivial fixed point of the dynamics without distancing. In simulations, we define two performance metrics to understand the effectiveness agent awareness has in reducing the spread of an epidemic. © 2015 IEEE.

Societal learning in epidemics: intervention effectiveness during the 2003 SARS outbreak in Singapore.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John M Drake

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Rapid response to outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is impeded by uncertain diagnoses and delayed communication. Understanding the effect of inefficient response is a potentially important contribution of epidemic theory. To develop this understanding we studied societal learning during emerging outbreaks wherein patient removal accelerates as information is gathered and disseminated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed an extension of a standard outbreak model, the simple stochastic epidemic, which accounts for societal learning. We obtained expressions for the expected outbreak size and the distribution of epidemic duration. We found that rapid learning noticeably affects the final outbreak size even when learning exhibits diminishing returns (relaxation. As an example, we estimated the learning rate for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS in Singapore. Evidence for relaxation during the first eight weeks of the outbreak was inconclusive. We estimated that if societal learning had occurred at half the actual rate, the expected final size of the outbreak would have reached nearly 800 cases, more than three times the observed number of infections. By contrast, the expected outbreak size for societal learning twice as effective was 116 cases. CONCLUSION: These results show that the rate of societal learning can greatly affect the final size of disease outbreaks, justifying investment in early warning systems and attentiveness to disease outbreak by both government authorities and the public. We submit that the burden of emerging infections, including the risk of a global pandemic, could be efficiently reduced by improving procedures for rapid detection of outbreaks, alerting public health officials, and aggressively educating the public at the start of an outbreak.

Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camila Buono

Full Text Available Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction [Formula: see text] of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted [Formula: see text]. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction [Formula: see text] of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of [Formula: see text] the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.

Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petter Holme

Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

Self-Defense Distributed Engagement Coordinator

Science.gov (United States)

2016-02-01

Distributed Engagement Coordinator MIT Lincoln Laboratory helped develop a unique decision support tool that automatically evaluates responses to...Laboratory researchers collaborated with scientists from the Operations Research Center at MIT’s Sloan School of Management to apply modern computational...epidemic.  A Technology Solution MIT Lincoln Laboratory, in collaboration with the Office of Naval Research (ONR), has developed an automated

Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

2009-01-01

Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

Long-range epidemic spreading in a random environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Juhász, Róbert; Kovács, István A; Iglói, Ferenc

2015-03-01

Modeling long-range epidemic spreading in a random environment, we consider a quenched, disordered, d-dimensional contact process with infection rates decaying with distance as 1/rd+σ. We study the dynamical behavior of the model at and below the epidemic threshold by a variant of the strong-disorder renormalization-group method and by Monte Carlo simulations in one and two spatial dimensions. Starting from a single infected site, the average survival probability is found to decay as P(t)∼t-d/z up to multiplicative logarithmic corrections. Below the epidemic threshold, a Griffiths phase emerges, where the dynamical exponent z varies continuously with the control parameter and tends to zc=d+σ as the threshold is approached. At the threshold, the spatial extension of the infected cluster (in surviving trials) is found to grow as R(t)∼t1/zc with a multiplicative logarithmic correction and the average number of infected sites in surviving trials is found to increase as Ns(t)∼(lnt)χ with χ=2 in one dimension.

Epidemic spreading and immunization strategy in multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarez Zuzek, Lucila G.; Buono, Camila; Braunstein, Lidia A.

2015-09-01

A more connected world has brought major consequences such as facilitate the spread of diseases all over the world to quickly become epidemics, reason why researchers are concentrated in modeling the propagation of epidemics and outbreaks in multilayer networks. In this networks all nodes interact in different layers with different type of links. However, in many scenarios such as in the society, a multiplex network framework is not completely suitable since not all individuals participate in all layers. In this paper, we use a partially overlapped, multiplex network where only a fraction of the individuals are shared by the layers. We develop a mitigation strategy for stopping a disease propagation, considering the Susceptible-Infected- Recover model, in a system consisted by two layers. We consider a random immunization in one of the layers and study the effect of the overlapping fraction in both, the propagation of the disease and the immunization strategy. Using branching theory, we study this scenario theoretically and via simulations and find a lower epidemic threshold than in the case without strategy.

Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Juanico, Drandreb Earl [Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines 1108 (Philippines); National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines 1101 (Philippines)

2015-05-15

Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks.

Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juanico, Drandreb Earl

2015-01-01

Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks

Beyond network structure: How heterogeneous susceptibility modulates the spread of epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Smilkov, Daniel; Hidalgo, Cesar A; Kocarev, Ljupco

2014-04-25

The compartmental models used to study epidemic spreading often assume the same susceptibility for all individuals, and are therefore, agnostic about the effects that differences in susceptibility can have on epidemic spreading. Here we show that-for the SIS model-differential susceptibility can make networks more vulnerable to the spread of diseases when the correlation between a node's degree and susceptibility are positive, and less vulnerable when this correlation is negative. Moreover, we show that networks become more likely to contain a pocket of infection when individuals are more likely to connect with others that have similar susceptibility (the network is segregated). These results show that the failure to include differential susceptibility to epidemic models can lead to a systematic over/under estimation of fundamental epidemic parameters when the structure of the networks is not independent from the susceptibility of the nodes or when there are correlations between the susceptibility of connected individuals.

[Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics].

Science.gov (United States)

Gendon, Iu Z; Vasil'ev, Iu M

2012-01-01

Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics is discussed. Optimal effect of school closure is observed when this measure is taken at the start of the epidemic or pandemic and for a sufficiently long time. School closure during high morbidity among schoolchildren, in the middle (at the peak) and by the end of epidemic or pandemic does not influence significantly the spread of influenza or morbidity. Significant economic losses and other negative consequences of school closure are noted. School closure may be the most appropriate during the emergence of influenza pandemic when the pandemic vaccine is not yet available, however timely mass immunization of schoolchildren against influenza may be a more appropriate measure than school closure for the reduction of influenza morbidity and spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.

Temperature profile and other data collected using bottle and CTD casts from the PARRAMATTA and other platforms in a world-wide distribution during the California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation (CALCOFI) project, 04 October 1903 to 19 December 1963 (NODC Accession 6300000)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic Station Data, temperature, and other data were collected using CTD and bottle casts from PARRAMATTA and other platforms in a world-wide distribution...

Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks

OpenAIRE

Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended anal...

Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Zobel, Emilie H; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter; von Scholten, Bernt Johan

2016-12-01

We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity epidemic and the increasing prevalence of accompanying complications, such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the global shift might also have direct effects on the increase in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, independently of overweight and obesity. The shift in the food supply is a major driver of the obesity epidemic.

[Chikungunya, La Réunion and Mayotte, 2005-2006: an epidemic without a story?].

Science.gov (United States)

Flahault, Antoine; Aumont, Gilles; Boisson, Véronique; de Lamballerile, Xavier; Favier, François; Fontenille, Didier; Gaüzère, Bernard-Alex; Journeaux, Sophie; Lotteau, Vincent; Paupy, Christophe; Sanquer, Marie-Anne; Setbon, Michel

2007-01-01

Many triggering factors for onset of emerging infectious diseases are now recognised, such as: globalisation, demographic increase, population movements, international trade, urbanisation, forest destruction, climate changes, loss in biodiversity, and extreme life conditions such as poverty, famine and war. Epidemic burden is often leading to disasters, in terms of human losses, as well as economic, political or social consequences. These outbreaks may jeopardize within a few weeks or months, industry, trade, or tourism. While dengue and its most severe forms (hemorrhagic and shock syndrome) is spreading all over the tropical world, another arbovirosis, chikungunya disease dramatically spread in Indian Ocean islands where 30 to 75% of population were infected in 2005 and 2006, and then extended its progression towards India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives islands with more than a million people infected with the East-African strain, replacing the former Asian strain which was known to prevail more than 30 years ago in India. Patients experience sequelae with disability, work loss, and rarely severe outcome recently identified in La Réunion and Mayotte (French overseas territories). No country, no part of the world may consider itself as protected against such events. However, consequences of emerging or re-emerging diseases are more and more unacceptable when they impact the poorest countries of the world. Viruses, bacteria, as well as wild animals, birds, or arthropods are not stopped by borders. It is time now to promote barriers against infectious diseases, including prevention, anticipation, disease surveillance and research. This is not only for humanitarian reasons, but also for contributing to a sustainable development with equity for worldwide population. This report presents comprehensive actions taken in 2006 for tracing the epidemic and mobilise research, as requested to the task force set up by the Prime Minister by March 20, 2006.

The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Courtwright, David T.

1991-01-01

Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

Epidemic assistance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: role of the Epidemic Intelligence Service, 1946-2005.

Science.gov (United States)

Thacker, Stephen B; Stroup, Donna F; Sencer, David J

2011-12-01

Since 1946, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has responded to urgent requests from US states, federal agencies, and international organizations through epidemic-assistance investigations (Epi-Aids). The authors describe the first 60 years of Epi-Aids, breadth of problems addressed, evolution of methodologies, scope of activities, and impact of investigations on population health. They reviewed Epi-Aid reports and EIS Bulletins, contacted current and former Epidemic Intelligence Service staff, and systematically searched the PubMed and Web of Science databases. They abstracted information on dates, location, staff involved, health problems, methods, and impacts of investigations according to a preplanned protocol. They assessed the methods presented as well as the quality of reports. During 1946-2005, a total of 4,484 investigations of health events were initiated by 2,815 Epidemic Intelligence Service officers. In the early years, the majority were in response to infectious agents, although environmental problems emerged. Investigations in subsequent years focused on occupational conditions, birth defects, reproductive health, tobacco use, cancer, violence, legal debate, and terrorism. These Epi-Aids heralded expansion of the agency's mission and presented new methods in statistics and epidemiology. Recommendations from Epi-Aids led to policy implementation, evaluation, or modification. Epi-Aids provide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the agility to respond rapidly to public health crises.

Temperature profile and other data collected using bottle and CTD casts from the HMAS DERWENT and other platforms from a world-wide distribution during the California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation (CALCOFI) project, 03 August 1904 to 31 December 1964 (NODC Accession 6400000)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic Station Data, temperature, and other data were collected using CTD and bottle casts from HMAS DERWENT and other platforms in a world-wide distribution...

Temperature profile and other data collected using bottle and CTD casts from the A. AGASSIZ and other platforms from a world-wide distribution during the California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation (CALCOFI) project, 06 January 1969 to 27 July 1977 (NODC Accession 8000006)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic Station Data, temperature, and other data were collected using CTD and bottle casts from A. AGASSIZ and other platforms in a world-wide distribution...

Recurrent epidemic cycles driven by intervention in a population of two susceptibility types

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juanico, Drandreb Earl O

2014-01-01

Epidemics have been known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, infectious diseases like influenza continue to appear intermittently over time. I have undertaken an analysis of a stochastic epidemic model to explore the hypothesis that intervention efforts actually drive epidemic cycles. Time series from simulations of the model reveal oscillations exhibiting a similar temporal signature as influenza epidemics. The power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which approximately corresponds to the apparent annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. Asymptotic solution to the backward Kolmogorov equation of the dynamics corresponds to an exponentially-decaying mean-exit time as a function of the intervention rate. Intervention must be implemented at a sufficiently high rate to extinguish the infection. The results demonstrate that intervention efforts can induce epidemic cycles, and that the temporal signature of cycles can provide early warning of imminent outbreaks

Neoliberal science, Chinese style: Making and managing the 'obesity epidemic'.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenhalgh, Susan

2016-08-01

Science and Technology Studies has seen a growing interest in the commercialization of science. In this article, I track the role of corporations in the construction of the obesity epidemic, deemed one of the major public health threats of the century. Focusing on China, a rising superpower in the midst of rampant, state-directed neoliberalization, I unravel the process, mechanisms, and broad effects of the corporate invention of an obesity epidemic. Largely hidden from view, Western firms were central actors at every stage in the creation, definition, and governmental management of obesity as a Chinese disease. Two industry-funded global health entities and the exploitation of personal ties enabled actors to nudge the development of obesity science and policy along lines beneficial to large firms, while obscuring the nudging. From Big Pharma to Big Food and Big Soda, transnational companies have been profiting from the 'epidemic of Chinese obesity', while doing little to effectively treat or prevent it. The China case suggests how obesity might have been constituted an 'epidemic threat' in other parts of the world and underscores the need for global frameworks to guide the study of neoliberal science and policymaking.

Virulence evolution at the front line of spreading epidemics.