WorldWideScience

Sample records for worldwide distributed epidemic

  1. The worldwide obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, P T; Leach, R; Kalamara, E; Shayeghi, M

    2001-11-01

    The recent World Health Organization (WHO) agreement on the standardized classification of overweight and obese, based on body mass index (BMI), allows a comparable analysis of prevalence rates worldwide for the first time. In Asia, however, there is a demand for a more limited range for normal BMIs (i.e., 18.5 to 22.9 kg/m(2) rather than 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m(2)) because of the high prevalence of comorbidities, particularly diabetes and hypertension. In children, the International Obesity Task-Force age-, sex-, and BMI-specific cutoff points are increasingly being used. We are currently evaluating BMI data globally as part of a new millennium analysis of the Global Burden of Disease. WHO is analyzing data in terms of 20 or more principal risk factors contributing to the primary causes of disability and lost lives in the 191 countries within the WHO. The prevalence rates for overweight and obese people are different in each region, with the Middle East, Central and Eastern Europe, and North America having higher prevalence rates. In most countries, women show a greater BMI distribution with higher obesity rates than do men. Obesity is usually now associated with poverty, even in developing countries. Relatively new data suggest that abdominal obesity in adults, with its associated enhanced morbidity, occurs particularly in those who had lower birth weights and early childhood stunting. Waist measurements in nationally representative studies are scarce but will now be needed to estimate the full impact of the worldwide obesity epidemic.

  2. Could viruses contribute to the worldwide epidemic of obesity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Richard L

    2008-01-01

    The prevalence of obesity in children increased rapidly starting about 1980 in both developed and developing countries. Studies of changes in diet and physical activity, television watching, and food advertisements on television suggest that these are not sufficient to explain the epidemic. The pattern of rapid spread is suggestive of an infectious origin. The concept of virus-induced obesity is not new. Eight viruses have been shown to cause obesity in animals and there is evidence for virus-induced obesity in humans. Recent evidence on animal and human adenoviruses suggests that these adenoviruses may infect adipocytes to alter enzymes and transcription factors resulting in accumulation of triglycerides and differentiation of preadipocytes into mature adipocytes. The E4orf1 gene of Ad-36 has been shown to be responsible for the adipogenic effect. It appears that a portion of the worldwide epidemic of obesity since 1980 could be due to infections with human adenoviruses.

  3. Worldwide distribution of Waardenburg syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, Chetan S; Isaacson, Glenn

    2003-09-01

    To clarify the multiracial occurrence of Waardenburg syndrome, we present a case series and literature review. A computerized review of the English-language literature was conducted to assess the distribution of reported occurrences of Waardenburg syndrome in populations around the world. We detail the clinical features of 2 family cohorts: one of Western European origin and the other from South Asia. A computerized literature review found sporadic cases of the syndrome in many ethnic groups, including Japanese, Taiwanese, and Middle Eastern families. The highest reported incidence is among Kenyan Africans. Waardenburg syndrome accounts for between 2% and 5% of cases of congenital deafness. It was first described in Northern European cohorts and is widely identified in fair-skinned populations. We hope to raise awareness of the worldwide distribution of this important cause of hearing loss.

  4. World-wide distribution automation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devaney, T.M.

    1994-01-01

    A worldwide power distribution automation system is outlined. Distribution automation is defined and the status of utility automation is discussed. Other topics discussed include a distribution management system, substation feeder, and customer functions, potential benefits, automation costs, planning and engineering considerations, automation trends, databases, system operation, computer modeling of system, and distribution management systems

  5. Retinopathy of prematurity blindness worldwide: phenotypes in the third epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quinn GE

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Graham E Quinn Division of Ophthalmology, The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Wood Center, Philadelphia, PA, USA Abstract: Blindness due to retinopathy of prematurity (ROP is an increasing problem worldwide as improved levels of neonatal care are provided in countries with developing neonatal intensive care units. The occurrence of ROP blindness varies dramatically with the socioeconomic development of a country. In regions with high levels of neonatal care and adequate resources, ROP blindness is largely restricted to premature infants with very low birth weight and low gestational age while in middle- and low-income countries with regional variation in technology and capacity, limited health resources may well limit the care of the premature newborn. Keywords: ROP, international, blindness

  6. Yellow Rust Epidemics Worldwide Were Caused by Pathogen Races from Divergent Genetic Lineages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Sajid; Rodriguez-Algaba, Julian; Thach, Tine; Sørensen, Chris K.; Hansen, Jens G.; Lassen, Poul; Nazari, Kumarse; Hodson, David P.; Justesen, Annemarie F.; Hovmøller, Mogens S.

    2017-01-01

    We investigated whether the recent worldwide epidemics of wheat yellow rust were driven by races of few clonal lineage(s) or populations of divergent races. Race phenotyping of 887 genetically diverse Puccinia striiformis isolates sampled in 35 countries during 2009–2015 revealed that these epidemics were often driven by races from few but highly divergent genetic lineages. PstS1 was predominant in North America; PstS2 in West Asia and North Africa; and both PstS1 and PstS2 in East Africa. PstS4 was prevalent in Northern Europe on triticale; PstS5 and PstS9 were prevalent in Central Asia; whereas PstS6 was prevalent in epidemics in East Africa. PstS7, PstS8 and PstS10 represented three genetic lineages prevalent in Europe. Races from other lineages were in low frequencies. Virulence to Yr9 and Yr27 was common in epidemics in Africa and Asia, while virulence to Yr17 and Yr32 were prevalent in Europe, corresponding to widely deployed resistance genes. The highest diversity was observed in South Asian populations, where frequent recombination has been reported, and no particular race was predominant in this area. The results are discussed in light of the role of invasions in shaping pathogen population across geographical regions. The results emphasized the lack of predictability of emergence of new races with high epidemic potential, which stresses the need for additional investments in population biology and surveillance activities of pathogens on global food crops, and assessments of disease vulnerability of host varieties prior to their deployment at larger scales. PMID:28676811

  7. Yellow Rust Epidemics Worldwide Were Caused by Pathogen Races from Divergent Genetic Lineages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajid Ali

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigated whether the recent worldwide epidemics of wheat yellow rust were driven by races of few clonal lineage(s or populations of divergent races. Race phenotyping of 887 genetically diverse Puccinia striiformis isolates sampled in 35 countries during 2009–2015 revealed that these epidemics were often driven by races from few but highly divergent genetic lineages. PstS1 was predominant in North America; PstS2 in West Asia and North Africa; and both PstS1 and PstS2 in East Africa. PstS4 was prevalent in Northern Europe on triticale; PstS5 and PstS9 were prevalent in Central Asia; whereas PstS6 was prevalent in epidemics in East Africa. PstS7, PstS8 and PstS10 represented three genetic lineages prevalent in Europe. Races from other lineages were in low frequencies. Virulence to Yr9 and Yr27 was common in epidemics in Africa and Asia, while virulence to Yr17 and Yr32 were prevalent in Europe, corresponding to widely deployed resistance genes. The highest diversity was observed in South Asian populations, where frequent recombination has been reported, and no particular race was predominant in this area. The results are discussed in light of the role of invasions in shaping pathogen population across geographical regions. The results emphasized the lack of predictability of emergence of new races with high epidemic potential, which stresses the need for additional investments in population biology and surveillance activities of pathogens on global food crops, and assessments of disease vulnerability of host varieties prior to their deployment at larger scales.

  8. Evidence that dirty electricity is causing the worldwide epidemics of obesity and diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milham, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    The epidemics of obesity and diabetes most apparent in recent years had their origins with Thomas Edison's development of distributed electricity in New York City in 1882. His original direct current (DC) generators suffered serious commutator brush arcing which is a major source of high-frequency voltage transients (dirty electricity). From the onset of the electrical grid, electrified populations have been exposed to dirty electricity. Diesel generator sets are a major source of dirty electricity today and are used almost universally to electrify small islands and places unreachable by the conventional electric grid. This accounts for the fact that diabetes prevalence, fasting plasma glucose and obesity are highest on small islands and other places electrified by generator sets and lowest in places with low levels of electrification like sub-Saharan Africa and east and Southeast Asia.

  9. Yellow Rust Epidemics Worldwide Were Caused by Pathogen Races from Divergent Genetic Lineages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ali, Sajid; Rodriguez Algaba, Julian; Thach, Tine

    2017-01-01

    population across geographical regions. The results emphasized the lack of predictability of emergence of new races with high epidemic potential, which stresses the need for additional investments in population biology and surveillance activities of pathogens on global food crops, and assessments of disease...... that these epidemics were often driven by races from few but highly divergent genetic lineages. PstS1 was predominant in North America; PstS2 in West Asia and North Africa; and both PstS1 and PstS2 in East Africa. PstS4 was prevalent in Northern Europe on triticale; PstS5 and PstS9 were prevalent in Central Asia......; whereas PstS6 was prevalent in epidemics in East Africa. PstS7, PstS8 and PstS10 represented three genetic lineages prevalent in Europe. Races from other lineages were in low frequencies. Virulence to Yr9 and Yr27 was common in epidemics in Africa and Asia, while virulence to Yr17 and Yr32 were prevalent...

  10. Dynamical Analysis of SIR Epidemic Models with Distributed Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wencai Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available SIR epidemic models with distributed delay are proposed. Firstly, the dynamical behaviors of the model without vaccination are studied. Using the Jacobian matrix, the stability of the equilibrium points of the system without vaccination is analyzed. The basic reproduction number R is got. In order to study the important role of vaccination to prevent diseases, the model with distributed delay under impulsive vaccination is formulated. And the sufficient conditions of globally asymptotic stability of “infection-free” periodic solution and the permanence of the model are obtained by using Floquet’s theorem, small-amplitude perturbation skills, and comparison theorem. Lastly, numerical simulation is presented to illustrate our main conclusions that vaccination has significant effects on the dynamical behaviors of the model. The results can provide effective tactic basis for the practical infectious disease prevention.

  11. Molecular epidemiology and emergence of worldwide epidemic clones of Neisseria meningitidis in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Hsiu-Li

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Meningococcal disease is infrequently found in Taiwan, a country with 23 million people. Between 1996 and 2002, 17 to 81 clinical cases of the disease were reported annually. Reported cases dramatically increased in 2001–2002. Our record shows that only serogroup B and W135 meningococci have been isolated from patients with meningococcal disease until 2000. However, serogroup A, C and Y meningococci were detected for the first time in 2001 and continued to cause disease through 2002. Most of serogroup Y meningococcus infections localized in Central Taiwan in 2001, indicating that a small-scale outbreak of meningococcal disease had occurred. The occurrence of a meningococcal disease outbreak and the emergence of new meningococcal strains are of public health concern. Methods Neisseria meningitidis isolates from patients with meningococcal disease from 1996 to 2002 were collected and characterized by serogrouping, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE and multilocus sequence typing (MLST. The genetic relatedness and clonal relationship between the isolates were analyzed by using the PFGE patterns and the allelic profiles of the sequence types (STs. Results Serogroups A, B, C, W135, Y, and non-serogroupable Neisseria meningitidis were, respectively, responsible for 2%, 50%, 2%, 35%, 9%, and 2% of 158 culture-confirmed cases of meningococcal disease in 1996–2002. Among 100 N. meningitidis isolates available for PFGE and MLST analyses, 51 different PFGE patterns and 30 STs were identified with discriminatory indices of 0.95 and 0.87, respectively. Of the 30 STs, 21 were newly identified and of which 19 were found in serogroup B isolates. A total of 40 PFGE patterns were identified in 52 serogroup B isolates with the patterns distributed over several distinct clusters. In contrast, the isolates within each of the serogroups A, C, W135, and Y shared high levels of PFGE pattern similarity. Analysis of the allelic profile of the

  12. Object Distribution Networks for World-wide Document Circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lijding, M.E.M.; Righetti, Claudio E.; Moldes, Leandro Navarro

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents an Object Distribution System (ODS), a distributed system inspired by the ultra-large scale distribution models used in everyday life (e.g. food or newspapers distribution chains). Beyond traditional mechanisms of approaching information to readers (e.g. caching and mirroring),

  13. DEVELOPMENT AND WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTION OF THE ANGLO NUBIAN GOAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelika Stemmer

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study describes the formation of the Anglo Nubian breed in Britain and follows up the original transfer of the founder breeds to Britain in the 19th century. An overview on the worldwide spread of the Anglo Nubian from Britain to the USA and Canada, later to Africa and Asia as well as Latin America is given. Information was compiled through project reports, literature, statistical records where available and accessible and interviews with experts. It is concluded that the Anglo Nubian is an example of a breed developed by combining genetic resources from different parts of the world joining performance and adaptation to tropical conditions. The breed spread to all continents. Apart from being kept as purebreds, it is more often used in crossbreeding programmes in different regions of the world. The value of this genetic resource has been recognized a long time ago, but there seem to be no efforts to counteract the danger of loosing it by excessive use in uncontrolled crossbreeding.

  14. Distributed Monitoring Infrastructure for Worldwide LHC Computing Grid

    CERN Document Server

    Andrade, Pedro; Bhatt, Kislay; Chand, Phool; Collados, David; Duggal, Vibhuti; Fuente, Paloma; Hayashi, Soichi; Imamagic, Emir; Joshi, Pradyumna; Kalmady, Rajesh; Karnani, Urvashi; Kumar, Vaibhav; Lapka, Wojciech; Quick, Robert; Tarragon, Jacobo; Teige, Scott; Triantafyllidis, Christos

    2012-01-01

    The journey of a monitoring probe from its development phase to the moment its execution result is presented in an availability report is a complex process. It goes through multiple phases such as development, testing, integration, release, deployment, execution, data aggregation, computation, and reporting. Further, it involves people with different roles (developers, site managers, VO managers, service managers, management), from different middleware providers (ARC, dCache, gLite, UNICORE and VDT), consortiums (WLCG, EMI, EGI, OSG), and operational teams (GOC, OMB, OTAG, CSIRT). The seamless harmonization of these distributed actors is in daily use for monitoring of the WLCG infrastructure. In this paper we describe the monitoring of the WLCG infrastructure from the operational perspective. We explain the complexity of the journey of a monitoring probe from its execution on a grid node to the visualization on the MyWLCG portal where it is exposed to other clients. This monitoring workflow profits from the i...

  15. Distribution of flexural deflection in the worldwide outer rise area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zi-Jun; Lin, Jing-Yi; Lin, Yi-Chin; Chin, Shao-Jinn; Chen, Yen-Fu

    2015-04-01

    The outer rise on the fringe of a subduction system is caused by an accreted load on the flexed oceanic lithosphere. The magnitude of the deflection is usually linked to the stress state beard by the oceanic plate. In a coupled subduction zone, the stress is abundantly accumulated across the plate boundary which should affect the flexural properties of the subducted plate. Thus, the variation of the outer rise in shape may reflect the seismogenic characteristics of the subduction system. In this study, we intent to find the correlation between the flexure deflection (Wb) of the outer rise and the subduction zone properties by comparing several slab parameters and the Wb distribution. The estimation of Wb is performed based on the available bathymetry data and the statistic analysis of earthquakes is from the global ISC earthquake catalog for the period of 1900-2015. Our result shows a progressive change of Wb in space, suggesting a robust calculation. The average Wb of worldwise subduction system spreads from 348 to 682 m. No visible distinction in the ranging of Wb was observed for different subduction zones. However, in a weak coupling subduction system, the standard variation of Wb has generally larger value. Relatively large Wb generally occurs in the center of the trench system, whereas small Wb for the two ends of trench. The comparison of Wb and several slab parameters shows that the Wb may be correlated with the maximal magnitude and the number of earthquakes. Otherwise, no clear relationship with other parameters can be obtained.

  16. Distributive justice and the harm to medical professionals fighting epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albertsen, Andreas; Thaysen, Jens Damgaard

    2017-01-01

    The exposure of doctors, nurses and other medical professionals to risks in the context of epidemics is significant. While traditional medical ethics offers the thought that these dangers may limit the extent to which a duty to care is applicable in such situations, it has less to say about what we......, cure and care for the vulnerable, luck egalitarianism seems to imply that their claim of justice to medical attention in case of infection is weak or non-existent. The article demonstrates how a recent interpretation of luck egalitarianism offers a solution to this problem. Redefining luck...

  17. Epidemic spreading on dynamical networks with temporary hubs and stable scale-free degree distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, An-Cai

    2014-01-01

    Recent empirical analyses of some realistic dynamical networks have demonstrated that their degree distributions are stable scale-free (SF), but the instantaneous well-connected hubs at one point of time can quickly become weakly connected. Motivated by these empirical results, we propose a simple toy dynamical agent-to-agent contact network model, in which each agent stays at one node of a static underlay network and the nearest neighbors swap their positions with each other. Although the degree distribution of the dynamical network model at any one time is equal to that in the static underlay network, the numbers and identities of each agent’s contacts will change over time. It is found that the dynamic interaction tends to suppress epidemic spreading in terms of larger epidemic threshold, smaller prevalence (the fraction of infected individuals) and smaller velocity of epidemic outbreak. Furthermore, the dynamic interaction results in the prevalence to undergo a phase transition at a finite threshold of the epidemic spread rate in the thermodynamic limit, which is in contradiction to the absence of an epidemic threshold in static SF networks. Some of these findings obtained from heterogeneous mean-field theory are in good agreement with numerical simulations. (paper)

  18. Maternal Colonization With Group B Streptococcus and Serotype Distribution Worldwide: Systematic Review and Meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Neal J; Seale, Anna C; O'Driscoll, Megan; O'Sullivan, Catherine; Bianchi-Jassir, Fiorella; Gonzalez-Guarin, Juan; Lawn, Joy E; Baker, Carol J; Bartlett, Linda; Cutland, Clare; Gravett, Michael G; Heath, Paul T; Le Doare, Kirsty; Madhi, Shabir A; Rubens, Craig E; Schrag, Stephanie; Sobanjo-Ter Meulen, Ajoke; Vekemans, Johan; Saha, Samir K; Ip, Margaret

    2017-11-06

    Maternal rectovaginal colonization with group B Streptococcus (GBS) is the most common pathway for GBS disease in mother, fetus, and newborn. This article, the second in a series estimating the burden of GBS, aims to determine the prevalence and serotype distribution of GBS colonizing pregnant women worldwide. We conducted systematic literature reviews (PubMed/Medline, Embase, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature [LILACS], World Health Organization Library Information System [WHOLIS], and Scopus), organized Chinese language searches, and sought unpublished data from investigator groups. We applied broad inclusion criteria to maximize data inputs, particularly from low- and middle-income contexts, and then applied new meta-analyses to adjust for studies with less-sensitive sampling and laboratory techniques. We undertook meta-analyses to derive pooled estimates of maternal GBS colonization prevalence at national and regional levels. The dataset regarding colonization included 390 articles, 85 countries, and a total of 299924 pregnant women. Our adjusted estimate for maternal GBS colonization worldwide was 18% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17%-19%), with regional variation (11%-35%), and lower prevalence in Southern Asia (12.5% [95% CI, 10%-15%]) and Eastern Asia (11% [95% CI, 10%-12%]). Bacterial serotypes I-V account for 98% of identified colonizing GBS isolates worldwide. Serotype III, associated with invasive disease, accounts for 25% (95% CI, 23%-28%), but is less frequent in some South American and Asian countries. Serotypes VI-IX are more common in Asia. GBS colonizes pregnant women worldwide, but prevalence and serotype distribution vary, even after adjusting for laboratory methods. Lower GBS maternal colonization prevalence, with less serotype III, may help to explain lower GBS disease incidence in regions such as Asia. High prevalence worldwide, and more serotype data, are relevant to prevention efforts. © The Author 2017. Published by

  19. Addressing population heterogeneity and distribution in epidemics models using a cellular automata approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Leonardo; Burguerner, Germán; Giovanini, Leonardo

    2014-04-12

    The spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based on cellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection of simple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of the objects, whose behaviour is defined through a set of simple rules that encode the individual behaviour and the transmission dynamic. An epidemic is characterized trough an individual-based-model built upon cellular automata. In the proposed model, each individual of the population is represented by a cell of the automata. This way of modeling an epidemic situation allows to individually define the characteristic of each individual, establish different scenarios and implement control strategies. A cellular automata model to study the time evolution of a heterogeneous populations through the various stages of disease was proposed, allowing the inclusion of individual heterogeneity, geographical characteristics and social factors that determine the dynamic of the desease. Different assumptions made to built the classical model were evaluated, leading to following results: i) for low contact rate (like in quarantine process or low density population areas) the number of infective individuals is lower than other areas where the contact rate is higher, and ii) for different initial spacial distributions of infected individuals different epidemic dynamics are obtained due to its influence on the transition rate and the reproductive ratio of disease. The contact rate and spatial distributions have a central role in the spread of a disease. For low density populations the spread is very low and the number of infected individuals is lower than in highly populated areas. The spacial distribution of the population and the disease focus as well as the geographical characteristic of the area play a central role in the dynamics of the

  20. GlobAl Distribution of GEnetic Traits (GADGET) web server: polygenic trait scores worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chande, Aroon T; Wang, Lu; Rishishwar, Lavanya; Conley, Andrew B; Norris, Emily T; Valderrama-Aguirre, Augusto; Jordan, I King

    2018-05-18

    Human populations from around the world show striking phenotypic variation across a wide variety of traits. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are used to uncover genetic variants that influence the expression of heritable human traits; accordingly, population-specific distributions of GWAS-implicated variants may shed light on the genetic basis of human phenotypic diversity. With this in mind, we developed the GlobAl Distribution of GEnetic Traits web server (GADGET http://gadget.biosci.gatech.edu). The GADGET web server provides users with a dynamic visual platform for exploring the relationship between worldwide genetic diversity and the genetic architecture underlying numerous human phenotypes. GADGET integrates trait-implicated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from GWAS, with population genetic data from the 1000 Genomes Project, to calculate genome-wide polygenic trait scores (PTS) for 818 phenotypes in 2504 individual genomes. Population-specific distributions of PTS are shown for 26 human populations across 5 continental population groups, with traits ordered based on the extent of variation observed among populations. Users of GADGET can also upload custom trait SNP sets to visualize global PTS distributions for their own traits of interest.

  1. Space Weather Monitors -- Preparing to Distribute Scientific Devices and Classroom Materials Worldwide for the IHY 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherrer, D. K.; Burress, B.

    2006-05-01

    Stanford's Solar Center, in conjunction with the Space, Telecommunications and Radioscience Laboratory and local educators, have developed inexpensive Space Weather Monitors that students around the world can use to track solar-induced changes to the Earth's ionosphere. Through the United Nations Basic Space Science Initiative (UNBSSI) and the IHY Education and Public Outreach Program, our Monitors have been designated for deployment to 191 countries for the International Heliophysical Year, 2007. In partnership with Chabot Space and Science Center, we are designing and developing classroom and educator support materials to accompany distribution of the monitors worldwide. Earth's ionosphere reacts strongly to the intense x-ray and ultraviolet radiation released by the Sun during solar events and by lightning during thunderstorms. Students anywhere in the world can directly monitor and track these sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs) by using a VLF radio receiver to monitor the signal strength from distant VLF transmitters and noting unusual changes as the waves bounce off the ionosphere. High school students "buy in" to the project by building their own antenna, a simple structure costing little and taking a couple hours to assemble. Data collection and analysis are handled by a local PC. Stanford is providing a centralized data repository where students and researchers can exchange and discuss data. Chabot Space & Science Center is an innovative teaching and learning center focusing on astronomy and the space sciences. Formed as a Joint Powers Agency with the City of Oakland (California), the Oakland Unified School District, the East Bay Regional Park District, and in collaboration with the Eastbay Astronomical Society, Chabot addresses the critical issue of broad access to the specialized information and facilities needed to improve K-12 science education and public science literacy. Up to 2,000 K-12 teachers annually take part in Chabot's professional

  2. Analysis of Impact of Geographical Environment and Socio-economic Factors on the Spatial Distribution of Kaohsiung Dengue Fever Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Wei-Yin; Wen, Tzai-Hung; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2013-04-01

    Taiwan is located in subtropical and tropical regions with high temperature and high humidity in the summer. This kind of climatic condition is the hotbed for the propagation and spread of the dengue vector mosquito. Kaohsiung City has been the worst dengue fever epidemic city in Taiwan. During the study period, from January 1998 to December 2011, Taiwan CDC recorded 7071 locally dengue epidemic cases in Kaohsiung City, and the number of imported case is 118. Our research uses Quantile Regression, a spatial infection disease distribution, to analyze the correlation between dengue epidemic and geographic environmental factors and human society factors in Kaohsiung. According to our experiment statistics, agriculture and natural forest have a positive relation to dengue fever(5.5~34.39 and 3.91~15.52). The epidemic will rise when the ratio for agriculture and natural forest increases. Residential ratio has a negative relation for quantile 0.1 to 0.4(-0.005~-0.78), and a positive relation for quantile 0.5 to0.9(0.01~18.0) . The mean income is also a significant factor in social economy field, and it has a negative relation to dengue fever(-0.01~-0.04). Conclusion from our research is that the main factor affecting the degree of dengue fever in predilection area is the residential proportion and the ratio of agriculture and natural forest plays an important role affecting the degree of dengue fever in non predilection area. Moreover, the serious epidemic area located by regression model is the same as the actual condition in Kaohsiung. This model can be used to predict the serious epidemic area of dengue fever and provide some references for the Health Agencies

  3. Effects of time, temperature, and storage container on the growth of Fusarium species: implications for the worldwide Fusarium keratitis epidemic of 2004-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bullock, John D; Elder, B Laurel; Khamis, Harry J; Warwar, Ronald E

    2011-02-01

    To demonstrate the effects of time, temperature, and container properties on the ability of ReNu with MoistureLoc (ReNuML; contains the antimicrobial agent alexidine) to inhibit growth of Fusarium species. ReNu with MoistureLoc was stored in its Bausch & Lomb (Rochester, New York) plastic or similarly sized glass containers for 1 and 4 weeks at room temperature, 42°C, and 56°C, and then tested for its ability to inhibit growth of 7 Fusarium isolates. ReNu with MoistureLoc stored in glass containers for 1 or 4 weeks at all 3 temperatures demonstrated no significant fungistatic deterioration. However, ReNuML stored at 56°C in its Bausch & Lomb plastic container demonstrated a statistically significant fungistatic deterioration compared with room temperature storage in its original plastic container or with glass container storage at any temperature. When exposed to elevated storage temperature, it appears that an interaction between ReNuML and its Bausch & Lomb plastic container adversely affects the fungistatic properties of ReNuML, which could have contributed to the Fusarium keratitis epidemic of 2004 through 2006.

  4. Inter-epidemic abundance and distribution of potential mosquito vectors for Rift Valley fever virus in Ngorongoro district, Tanzania

    OpenAIRE

    Mweya, Clement N.; Kimera, Sharadhuli I.; Mellau, Lesakit S. B.; Mboera, Leonard E. G.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis that primarily affects ruminants but also has the capacity to infect humans. Objective: To determine the abundance and distribution of mosquito vectors in relation to their potential role in the virus transmission and maintenance in disease epidemic areas of Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania. Methods: A cross-sectional entomological investigation was carried out before the suspected RVF outbreak in October 2012. Mos...

  5. Estimating the spatial distribution of a plant disease epidemic from a sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampling is of central importance in plant pathology. It facilitates our understanding of how epidemics develop in space and time and can also be used to inform disease management decisions. Making inferences from a sample is necessary because we rarely have the resources to conduct a complete censu...

  6. A distribution benefits model for improved information on worldwide crop production. Volume 1: Model structure and application to wheat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, J.

    1976-01-01

    The improved model is suitable for the study of benefits of worldwide information on a variety of crops. Application to the previously studied case of worldwide wheat production shows that about $108 million per year of distribution benefits to the United States would be achieved by a satellite-based wheat information system meeting the goals of LACIE. The model also indicates that improved information alone will not change world stock levels unless production itself is stabilized. The United States benefits mentioned above are associated with the reduction of price fluctuations within the year and the more effective use of international trade to balance supply and demand. Price fluctuations from year to year would be reduced only if production variability were itself reduced.

  7. Time dependent worldwide distribution of atmospheric neutrons and of their products. I, II, III.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merker, M.; Light, E. S.; Verschell, H. J.; Mendell, R. B.; Korff, S. A.

    1973-01-01

    Review of the experimental results obtained in a series of measurements of the fast neutron cosmic ray spectrum by means of high-altitude balloons and aircraft. These results serve as a basis for checking a Monte Carlo calculation of the entire neutron distribution and its products. A calculation of neutron production and transport in the earth's atmosphere is then discussed for the purpose of providing a detailed description of the morphology of secondary neutron components. Finally, an analysis of neutron observations during solar particle events is presented. The Monte Carlo output is used to estimate the contribution of flare particles to fluctuations in the steady state neutron distributions.

  8. Worldwide genealogy of Entamoeba histolytica: an overview to understand haplotype distribution and infection outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zermeño, Valeria; Ximénez, Cecilia; Morán, Patricia; Valadez, Alicia; Valenzuela, Olivia; Rascón, Edgar; Diaz, Daniel; Cerritos, René

    2013-07-01

    Although Entamoeba histolytica is one of the most prevalent intestinal parasites, how the different strains of this species are distributed all over the world and how different genotypes are associated with the infection outcome are yet to be fully understood. Recently, the use of a number of molecular markers has made the characterization of several genotypes in those regions with high incidence of amoebiasis possible. This work proposes the first genealogy of E. histolytica, with an haplotype network based on two tRNA gene-linked array of Short Tandem Repeats (STRs) reported until today, and 47 sequences from 39 new isolates of Mexican Amoebic Liver Abscesses (ALA) samples. One hundred and three sequences were obtained from D-A locus, their information about the geographic region of isolation as well as clinical diagnosis were also collected. One hundred and five sequences from N-K2 locus were also obtained as well as the region of isolation, but the information about clinical diagnosis was not available in all cases. The most abundant and widely distributed haplotype in the world is the one of E. histolytica HM1:IMSS strain. This was found in Mexico, Bangladesh, Japan, China and USA and is associated to symptomatic patients as well as asymptomatic cyst passers. Many other haplotypes were found only in a single country. Both genealogies suggest that there are no lineages within the networks that may be related to a particular geographic region or infection outcome. A concatenated analysis of the two molecular markers revealed 12 different combinations, which suggests the possibility of genetic recombination events. The present study is the first to propose a global genealogy of this species and suggests that there are still many genotypes to be discovered. The genotyping of new isolates will help to understand the great diversity and genetic structure of this parasite. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A Method for Citizen Scientists to Catalogue Worldwide Chlorociboria spp. Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarath M. Vega Gutierrez

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The blue-green pigment known as xylindein that is produced by species in the Chlorociboria genus is under heavy investigation for its potential in textile dyes, wood dyes, and solar cells. Xylindein has not yet been synthesized, and while its production can be stimulated under laboratory conditions, it is also plentiful in downed, decayed wood in forested lands. Unfortunately, little is known about the wood preference and forest type preference for this genus, especially outside New Zealand. To map the genus would be a massive undertaking, and herein a method by which citizen scientists could contribute to the distribution map of Chlorociboria species is proposed. The initial trial of this method found untrained participants successfully identified Chlorociboria stained wood in each instance, regardless of forest type. This simple, easy identification and classification system should be well received by citizen-scientists and is the first step towards a global understanding of how xylindein production might be managed for across various ecosystems.

  10. Inter-epidemic abundance and distribution of potential mosquito vectors for Rift Valley fever virus in Ngorongoro district, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mweya, Clement N; Kimera, Sharadhuli I; Mellau, Lesakit S B; Mboera, Leonard E G

    2015-01-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis that primarily affects ruminants but also has the capacity to infect humans. To determine the abundance and distribution of mosquito vectors in relation to their potential role in the virus transmission and maintenance in disease epidemic areas of Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania. A cross-sectional entomological investigation was carried out before the suspected RVF outbreak in October 2012. Mosquitoes were sampled both outdoors and indoors using the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) light traps and Mosquito Magnets baited with attractants. Outdoor traps were placed in proximity with breeding sites and under canopy in banana plantations close to the sleeping places of animals. A total of 1,823 mosquitoes were collected, of which 87% (N=1,588) were Culex pipiens complex, 12% (N=226) Aedes aegypti, and 0.5% (N=9) Anopheles species. About two-thirds (67%; N=1,095) of C. pipiens complex and nearly 100% (N=225) of A. aegypti were trapped outdoors using Mosquito Magnets. All Anopheles species were trapped indoors using CDC light traps. There were variations in abundance of C. pipiens complex and A. aegypti among different ecological and vegetation habitats. Over three quarters (78%) of C. pipiens complex and most (85%) of the A. aegypti were trapped in banana and maize farms. Both C. pipiens complex and A. aegypti were more abundant in proximity with cattle and in semi-arid thorn bushes and lower Afro-montane. The highest number of mosquitoes was recorded in villages that were most affected during the RVF epidemic of 2007. Of the tested 150 pools of C. pipiens complex and 45 pools of A. aegypti, none was infected with RVF virus. These results provide insights into unique habitat characterisation relating to mosquito abundances and distribution in RVF epidemic-prone areas of Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania.

  11. Inter-epidemic abundance and distribution of potential mosquito vectors for Rift Valley fever virus in Ngorongoro district, Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement N. Mweya

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis that primarily affects ruminants but also has the capacity to infect humans. Objective: To determine the abundance and distribution of mosquito vectors in relation to their potential role in the virus transmission and maintenance in disease epidemic areas of Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania. Methods: A cross-sectional entomological investigation was carried out before the suspected RVF outbreak in October 2012. Mosquitoes were sampled both outdoors and indoors using the Centre for Disease Control (CDC light traps and Mosquito Magnets baited with attractants. Outdoor traps were placed in proximity with breeding sites and under canopy in banana plantations close to the sleeping places of animals. Results: A total of 1,823 mosquitoes were collected, of which 87% (N=1,588 were Culex pipiens complex, 12% (N=226 Aedes aegypti, and 0.5% (N=9 Anopheles species. About two-thirds (67%; N=1,095 of C. pipiens complex and nearly 100% (N=225 of A. aegypti were trapped outdoors using Mosquito Magnets. All Anopheles species were trapped indoors using CDC light traps. There were variations in abundance of C. pipiens complex and A. aegypti among different ecological and vegetation habitats. Over three quarters (78% of C. pipiens complex and most (85% of the A. aegypti were trapped in banana and maize farms. Both C. pipiens complex and A. aegypti were more abundant in proximity with cattle and in semi-arid thorn bushes and lower Afro-montane. The highest number of mosquitoes was recorded in villages that were most affected during the RVF epidemic of 2007. Of the tested 150 pools of C. pipiens complex and 45 pools of A. aegypti, none was infected with RVF virus. Conclusions: These results provide insights into unique habitat characterisation relating to mosquito abundances and distribution in RVF epidemic-prone areas of Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania.

  12. Stochastic persistence and stationary distribution in an SIS epidemic model with media coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Wenjuan; Cai, Yongli; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2018-02-01

    This paper aims to study an SIS epidemic model with media coverage from a general deterministic model to a stochastic differential equation with environment fluctuation. Mathematically, we use the Markov semigroup theory to prove that the basic reproduction number R0s can be used to control the dynamics of stochastic system. Epidemiologically, we show that environment fluctuation can inhibit the occurrence of the disease, namely, in the case of disease persistence for the deterministic model, the disease still dies out with probability one for the stochastic model. So to a great extent the stochastic perturbation under media coverage affects the outbreak of the disease.

  13. The worldwide epidemic of diabetic retinopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingfeng Zheng

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Diabetic retinopathy (DR, a major microvascular complication of diabetes, has a significant impact on the world′s health systems. Globally, the number of people with DR will grow from 126.6 million in 2010 to 191.0 million by 2030, and we estimate that the number with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR will increase from 37.3 million to 56.3 million, if prompt action is not taken. Despite growing evidence documenting the effectiveness of routine DR screening and early treatment, DR frequently leads to poor visual functioning and represents the leading cause of blindness in working-age populations. DR has been neglected in health-care research and planning in many low-income countries, where access to trained eye-care professionals and tertiary eye-care services may be inadequate. Demand for, as well as, supply of services may be a problem. Rates of compliance with diabetes medications and annual eye examinations may be low, the reasons for which are multifactorial. Innovative and comprehensive approaches are needed to reduce the risk of vision loss by prompt diagnosis and early treatment of VTDR.

  14. Chlorophyll, temperature, depth, and irradiance data from bottle in a world-wide distribution from 28 February 1964 to 02 April 1994 (NODC Accession 0000268)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Chlorophyll, temperature, depth, and irradiance data were collected using bottle from multiple vessels in a world-wide distribution from 28 February 1964 to 02 April...

  15. Temperature profile data from MBT casts in a world-wide distribution from 23 December 1964 to 19 December 1991 (NODC Accession 0000216)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using MBT casts from multiple platforms in a world-wide distribution from December 23, 1964 to December 19, 1991. Additonal...

  16. Temperature profile data from MBT casts from NAUKA and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 26 July 1966 to 09 September 1990 (NODC Accession 0000228)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using MBT casts in a World-wide distribution from the NAUKA, FIOLENT, LESNOYE, and other platforms from 26 July 1966 to 09...

  17. Temperature profile data from MBT casts from NAUKA and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 18 June 1970 to 05 May 1989 (NODC Accession 0000229)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using MBT casts in a World-wide distribution from the NAUKA, AELITA, LESNOYE, and other platforms from 18 June 1970 to 05 May...

  18. Temperature profiles from XBT casts from a World-Wide distribution from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from 1979-06-03 to 1988-05-27 (NODC Accession 8800182)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profiles were collected from XBT casts from a World-Wide distribution. Data were collected from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from 03 June 1979 to 27 May 1988. Data...

  19. Temperature profiles from MBT casts from a World-Wide distribution from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from 1948-04-08 to 1968-12-14 (NODC Accession 9300131)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected from MBT casts from a World-Wide distribution. Data were collected from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from 08 April 1948 to 14 Decmeber...

  20. Temperature profile data from XBT casts from a World-Wide Distribution 31 March 1985 to 24 November 1990 (NODC Accession 9700191)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Physical data were collected from XBT casts from from a World-Wide Distribution from 31 March 1985 to 24 November 1990. Physical parameters include temperature...

  1. Chemical, temperature, and other data from bottle casts in a world-wide distribution from 04 October 1961 to 24 August 1990 (NODC Accession 0000231)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Chemical, temperature, and other data were collected using bottle casts in a world-wide distribution from multiple ships from October 4, 1961 to August 24, 1990....

  2. Temperature profile data from XBT casts from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from a World-Wide distribution from 02 January 1990 to 31 December 1995 (NODC Accession 0001268)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — XBT data were collected from MULTIPLE PLATFORMS from a World-Wide distribution from 02 January 1990 to 31 December 1995. Data were submitted by the UK Hydrographic...

  3. Depth, chlorophyll, and total pigment data were collected using bottle casts in a world-wide distribution from 16 March 1997 to 30 January 1998 (NODC Accession 0000292)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Depth, chlorophyll, and total pigment data were collected using bottle casts from TIOGA and other platforms in a world-wide distribution from March 16, 1997 to...

  4. Temperature and other data from XBT and MBT casts in a world-wide distribution from 06 March 1958 to 01 April 1958 (NODC Accession 0000336)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature and other data were collected using XBT and MBT casts in a world-wide distribution from March 6, 1958 to April 1, 1958. Data were submitted by Duetsches...

  5. Molecular markers for tracking the origin and worldwide distribution of invasive strains of Puccinia striiformis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walter, Stephanie; Ali, Sajid; Kemen, Eric

    2016-01-01

    .g., the spreading of two aggressive and high temperature adapted strains to three continents since 2000. The combination of sequence-characterized amplified region (SCAR) markers, which were developed from two specific AFLP fragments, differentiated the two invasive strains, PstS1 and PstS2 from all other P....... striiformis strains investigated at a worldwide level. The application of the SCAR markers on 566 isolates showed that PstS1 was present in East Africa in the early 1980s and then detected in the Americas in 2000 and in Australia in 2002. PstS2 which evolved from PstS1 became widespread in the Middle East...... as the most plausible origin of the two invasive strains. The SCAR markers developed in the present study provide a rapid, inexpensive, and efficient tool to track the distribution of P. striiformis invasive strains, PstS1 and PstS2....

  6. Worldwide distribution of Total Reflection X-ray Fluorescence instrumentation and its different fields of application: A survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klockenkämper, Reinhold, E-mail: reinhold.klockenkaemper@isas.de; Bohlen, Alex von

    2014-09-01

    A survey was carried out with users and manufacturers of Total Reflection X-ray Fluorescence instrumentation in order to demonstrate the worldwide distribution of TXRF equipment and the different fields of applications. In general, TXRF users come from universities and scientific institutes, from working places at synchrotron beam-lines, or laboratories in semiconductor fabs. TXRF instrumentation is distributed in more than 50 countries on six continents and is applied at about 200 institutes and laboratories. The number of running desktop instruments amounts to nearly 300 units. About 60 beamlines run working places dedicated to TXRF. About 300 floor-mounted instruments are estimated to be used in about 150 fabs of the semiconductor industry. In total, 13 different fields of applications could be registered statistically from three different aspects. - Highlights: • According to the survey world maps show the distribution of TXRF equipment. • Nearly 700 individual units are running actually in 57 countries of 6 continents. • Users work at 200 universities, 60 synchrotron-beamlines, and 150 semiconductor fabs. • 13 fields of applications (e.g. environmental, chemical) are evaluated statistically. • Manufacturers, conference members and authors lead to 3 different pie-charts.

  7. Potential worldwide distribution of Fusarium dry root rot in common beans based on the optimal environment for disease occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedo, Renan; Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Yoshida, Fernanda; Silva-Abud, Lidianne Lemes; Lobo, Murillo

    2017-01-01

    Root rots are a constraint for staple food crops and a long-lasting food security problem worldwide. In common beans, yield losses originating from root damage are frequently attributed to dry root rot, a disease caused by the Fusarium solani species complex. The aim of this study was to model the current potential distribution of common bean dry root rot on a global scale and to project changes based on future expectations of climate change. Our approach used a spatial proxy of the field disease occurrence, instead of solely the pathogen distribution. We modeled the pathogen environmental requirements in locations where in-situ inoculum density seems ideal for disease manifestation. A dataset of 2,311 soil samples from commercial farms assessed from 2002 to 2015 allowed us to evaluate the environmental conditions associated with the pathogen's optimum inoculum density for disease occurrence, using a lower threshold as a spatial proxy. We encompassed not only the optimal conditions for disease occurrence but also the optimal pathogen's density required for host infection. An intermediate inoculum density of the pathogen was the best disease proxy, suggesting density-dependent mechanisms on host infection. We found a strong convergence on the environmental requirements of both the host and the disease development in tropical areas, mostly in Brazil, Central America, and African countries. Precipitation and temperature variables were important for explaining the disease occurrence (from 17.63% to 43.84%). Climate change will probably move the disease toward cooler regions, which in Brazil are more representative of small-scale farming, although an overall shrink in total area (from 48% to 49% in 2050 and 26% to 41% in 2070) was also predicted. Understanding pathogen distribution and disease risks in an evolutionary context will therefore support breeding for resistance programs and strategies for dry root rot management in common beans.

  8. Potential worldwide distribution of Fusarium dry root rot in common beans based on the optimal environment for disease occurrence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renan Macedo

    Full Text Available Root rots are a constraint for staple food crops and a long-lasting food security problem worldwide. In common beans, yield losses originating from root damage are frequently attributed to dry root rot, a disease caused by the Fusarium solani species complex. The aim of this study was to model the current potential distribution of common bean dry root rot on a global scale and to project changes based on future expectations of climate change. Our approach used a spatial proxy of the field disease occurrence, instead of solely the pathogen distribution. We modeled the pathogen environmental requirements in locations where in-situ inoculum density seems ideal for disease manifestation. A dataset of 2,311 soil samples from commercial farms assessed from 2002 to 2015 allowed us to evaluate the environmental conditions associated with the pathogen's optimum inoculum density for disease occurrence, using a lower threshold as a spatial proxy. We encompassed not only the optimal conditions for disease occurrence but also the optimal pathogen's density required for host infection. An intermediate inoculum density of the pathogen was the best disease proxy, suggesting density-dependent mechanisms on host infection. We found a strong convergence on the environmental requirements of both the host and the disease development in tropical areas, mostly in Brazil, Central America, and African countries. Precipitation and temperature variables were important for explaining the disease occurrence (from 17.63% to 43.84%. Climate change will probably move the disease toward cooler regions, which in Brazil are more representative of small-scale farming, although an overall shrink in total area (from 48% to 49% in 2050 and 26% to 41% in 2070 was also predicted. Understanding pathogen distribution and disease risks in an evolutionary context will therefore support breeding for resistance programs and strategies for dry root rot management in common beans.

  9. Spatial distribution and ecological environment analysis of great gerbil in Xinjiang Plague epidemic foci based on remote sensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Mengxu; Wang, Juanle; Li, Qun; Cao, Chunxiang

    2014-01-01

    Yersinia pestis (Plague bacterium) from great gerbil was isolated in 2005 in Xinjiang Dzungarian Basin, which confirmed the presence of the plague epidemic foci. This study analysed the spatial distribution and suitable habitat of great gerbil based on the monitoring data of great gerbil from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as the ecological environment elements obtained from remote sensing products. The results showed that: (1) 88.5% (277/313) of great gerbil distributed in the area of elevation between 200 and 600 meters. (2) All the positive points located in the area with a slope of 0–3 degree, and the sunny tendency on aspect was not obvious. (3) All 313 positive points of great gerbil distributed in the area with an average annual temperature from 5 to 11 °C, and 165 points with an average annual temperature from 7 to 9 °C. (4) 72.8% (228/313) of great gerbil survived in the area with an annual precipitation of 120–200mm. (5) The positive points of great gerbil increased correspondingly with the increasing of NDVI value, but there is no positive point when NDVI is higher than 0.521, indicating the suitability of vegetation for great gerbil. This study explored a broad and important application for the monitoring and prevention of plague using remote sensing and geographic information system

  10. Global stability results for a generalized Lotka-Volterra system with distributed delays. Applications to predator-prey and to epidemic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beretta, E; Capasso, V; Rinaldi, F

    1988-01-01

    The paper contains an extension of the general ODE system proposed in previous papers by the same authors, to include distributed time delays in the interaction terms. The new system describes a large class of Lotka-Volterra like population models and epidemic models with continuous time delays. Sufficient conditions for the boundedness of solutions and for the global asymptotic stability of nontrivial equilibrium solutions are given. A detailed analysis of the epidemic system is given with respect to the conditions for global stability. For a relevant subclass of these systems an existence criterion for steady states is also given.

  11. Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement Nyamunura Mweya

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. Methods: Diverse ecological niche modelling techniques have been developed for this purpose: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Results: Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Conclusion: Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods.

  12. Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mweya, Clement Nyamunura; Kimera, Sharadhuli Iddi; Kija, John Bukombe; Mboera, Leonard E G

    2013-01-01

    The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods.

  13. Distribution of take-home opioid antagonist kits during a synthetic opioid epidemic in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Irvine, PhD

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Background: Illicit use of high-potency synthetic opioids has become a global issue over the past decade. This misuse is particularly pronounced in British Columbia, Canada, where a rapid increase in availability of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids in the local illicit drug supply during 2016 led to a substantial increase in overdoses and deaths. In response, distribution of take-home naloxone (THN overdose prevention kits was scaled up (6·4-fold increase throughout the province. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of the THN programme in terms of the number of deaths averted over the study period. Methods: We estimated the impact of THN kits on the ongoing epidemic among people who use illicit opioids in British Columbia and explored counterfactual scenarios for the provincial response. A Markov chain model was constructed explicitly including opioid-related deaths, fentanyl-related deaths, ambulance-attended overdoses, and uses of THN kits. The model was calibrated in a Bayesian framework incorporating population data between Jan 1, 2012, and Oct 31, 2016. Findings: 22 499 ambulance-attended overdoses and 2121 illicit drug-related deaths (677 [32%] deaths related to fentanyl were recorded in the study period, mostly since January, 2016. In the same period, 19 074 THN kits were distributed. We estimate that 298 deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 91–474 were averted by the THN programme. Of these deaths, 226 (95% CrI 125–340 were averted in 2016, following a rapid scale-up in distribution of kits. We infer a rapid increase in fentanyl adulterant at the beginning of 2016, with an estimated 2·3 times (95% CrI 2·0–2·9 increase from 2015 to 2016. Counterfactual modelling indicated that an earlier scale-up of the programme would have averted an additional 118 deaths (95% CrI 64–207. Our model also indicated that the increase in deaths could parsimoniously be explained through a change in the fentanyl

  14. Worldwide construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williamson, M.

    1994-01-01

    The paper lists major construction projects in worldwide processing and pipelining, showing capacities, contractors, estimated costs, and time of construction. The lists are divided into refineries, petrochemical plants, sulfur recovery units, gas processing plants, pipelines, and related fuel facilities. This last classification includes cogeneration plants, coal liquefaction and gasification plants, biomass power plants, geothermal power plants, integrated coal gasification combined-cycle power plants, and a coal briquetting plant

  15. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  16. Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overvad, Kim

    2018-01-01

    interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million......, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence...... participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights...

  17. Worldwide telemedicine services based on distributed multimedia electronic patient records by using the second generation Web server hyperwave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quade, G; Novotny, J; Burde, B; May, F; Beck, L E; Goldschmidt, A

    1999-01-01

    A distributed multimedia electronic patient record (EPR) is a central component of a medicine-telematics application that supports physicians working in rural areas of South America, and offers medical services to scientists in Antarctica. A Hyperwave server is used to maintain the patient record. As opposed to common web servers--and as a second generation web server--Hyperwave provides the capability of holding documents in a distributed web space without the problem of broken links. This enables physicians to browse through a patient's record by using a standard browser even if the patient's record is distributed over several servers. The patient record is basically implemented on the "Good European Health Record" (GEHR) architecture.

  18. Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

  19. Genome analysis of Mycoplasma synoviae strain MS-H, the most common M. synoviae strain with a worldwide distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Ling; Shahid, Muhammad A; Markham, John; Browning, Glenn F; Noormohammadi, Amir H; Marenda, Marc S

    2018-02-02

    The bacterial pathogen Mycoplasma synoviae can cause subclinical respiratory disease, synovitis, airsacculitis and reproductive tract disease in poultry and is a major cause of economic loss worldwide. The M. synoviae strain MS-H was developed by chemical mutagenesis of an Australian isolate and has been used as a live attenuated vaccine in many countries over the past two decades. As a result it may now be the most prevalent strain of M. synoviae globally. Differentiation of the MS-H vaccine from local field strains is important for epidemiological investigations and is often required for registration of the vaccine. The complete genomic sequence of the MS-H strain was determined using a combination of Illumina and Nanopore methods and compared to WVU-1853, the M. synoviae type strain isolated in the USA 30 years before the parent strain of MS-H, and MS53, a more recent isolate from Brazil. The vaccine strain genome had a slightly larger number of pseudogenes than the two other strains and contained a unique 55 kb chromosomal inversion partially affecting a putative genomic island. Variations in gene content were also noted, including a deoxyribose-phosphate aldolase (deoC) fragment and an ATP-dependent DNA helicase gene found only in MS-H. Some of these sequences may have been acquired horizontally from other avian mycoplasma species. MS-H was somewhat more similar to WVU-1853 than to MS53. The genome sequence of MS-H will enable identification of vaccine-specific genetic markers for use as diagnostic and epidemiological tools to better control M. synoviae.

  20. How far could the alien boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis spread? Worldwide estimation of its current and future potential distribution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Guareschi

    Full Text Available Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv is a corixid (Hemiptera originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of

  1. How Far Could the Alien Boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis Spread? Worldwide Estimation of Its Current and Future Potential Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guareschi, Simone; Coccia, Cristina; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Carbonell, José Antonio; Velasco, Josefa; Boyero, Luz; Green, Andy J.; Millán, Andrés

    2013-01-01

    Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on

  2. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  3. Worldwide Distribution of Cytochrome P450 Alleles: A Meta-analysis of Population-scale Sequencing Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y; Ingelman-Sundberg, M; Lauschke, V M

    2017-10-01

    Genetic polymorphisms in cytochrome P450 (CYP) genes can result in altered metabolic activity toward a plethora of clinically important medications. Thus, single nucleotide variants and copy number variations in CYP genes are major determinants of drug pharmacokinetics and toxicity and constitute pharmacogenetic biomarkers for drug dosing, efficacy, and safety. Strikingly, the distribution of CYP alleles differs considerably between populations with important implications for personalized drug therapy and healthcare programs. To provide a global distribution map of CYP alleles with clinical importance, we integrated whole-genome and exome sequencing data from 56,945 unrelated individuals of five major human populations. By combining this dataset with population-specific linkage information, we derive the frequencies of 176 CYP haplotypes, providing an extensive resource for major genetic determinants of drug metabolism. Furthermore, we aggregated this dataset into spectra of predicted functional variability in the respective populations and discuss the implications for population-adjusted pharmacological treatment strategies. © 2017 The Authors Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  4. Worldwide distribution of the MYH9 kidney disease susceptibility alleles and haplotypes: evidence of historical selection in Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taras K Oleksyk

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available MYH9 was recently identified as renal susceptibility gene (OR 3-8, p or = 60% than in European Americans (< 4%, revealing a genetic basis for a major health disparity. The population distributions of MYH9 risk alleles and the E-1 risk haplotype and the demographic and selective forces acting on the MYH9 region are not well explored. We reconstructed MYH9 haplotypes from 4 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs spanning introns 12-23 using available data from HapMap Phase II, and by genotyping 938 DNAs from the Human Genome Diversity Panel (HGDP. The E-1 risk haplotype followed a cline, being most frequent within sub-Saharan African populations (range 50-80%, less frequent in populations from the Middle East (9-27% and Europe (0-9%, and rare or absent in Asia, the Americas, and Oceania. The fixation indexes (F(ST for pairwise comparisons between the risk haplotypes for continental populations were calculated for MYH9 haplotypes; F(ST ranged from 0.27-0.40 for Africa compared to other continental populations, possibly due to selection. Uniquely in Africa, the Yoruba population showed high frequency extended haplotype length around the core risk allele (C compared to the alternative allele (T at the same locus (rs4821481, iHs = 2.67, as well as high population differentiation (F(ST(CEU vs. YRI = 0.51 in HapMap Phase II data, also observable only in the Yoruba population from HGDP (F(ST = 0.49, pointing to an instance of recent selection in the genomic region. The population-specific divergence in MYH9 risk allele frequencies among the world's populations may prove important in risk assessment and public health policies to mitigate the burden of kidney disease in vulnerable populations.

  5. Temperature profile data from XBT casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 1982-05-24 to 1996-03-21 (NODC Accession 9600116)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using XBT casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 24 May 1982 to 21 March 1996....

  6. Temperature profile data from XBT casts from a world-wide distribution from the SEA-LAND NAVIGATOR and other platforms from 21 September 2000 to 18 March 2002 (NODC Accession 0000696)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profiles were collected by deploying XBT casts from the SEA-LAND NAVIGATOR and other platforms over a world-wide distribution from 21 September 2000 to...

  7. Temperature profiles from XBT casts from a world-wide distribution from the EMERALD INDAH and other platforms from 28 November 2000 to 29 May 2001 (NODC Accession 0000465)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — XBT and other data were collected from a world-wide distribution from the EMERALD INDAH and other platforms from 28 November 2000 to 29 May 2001. Data were submitted...

  8. Temperature profile and chemical data collected using XBT and CTD casts from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRIGE and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 1991-09-17 to 1995-03-23 (NODC Accession 9500074)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile and chemical data were collected using XBT and CTD casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRIGE and other platforms from 17...

  9. Temperature, salinity, and nutrients data from CTD and bottle casts from a world-wide distribution from the ANDROMEDA and other platforms from 01 January 1923 to 31 December 1999 (NODC Accession 0000208)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — CTD and bottle data were collected from the ANDROMEDA and other platforms from a world-wide distribution from 01 January 1923 to 31 December 1999. Data were...

  10. Temperature profile data collected using BT and XBT casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRIGE and other platforms from 1989-03-10 to 1990-08-01 (NODC Accession 9000239)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using XBT and BT casts from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRDIGE and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 10 March 1989...

  11. Temperature, salinity, and nutrients data from CTD and bottle casts from a world-wide distribution from the CORNIDE DE SAAVEDRA and other platforms from 01 January 1914 to 12 December 1999 (NODC Accession 0000207)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — CTD, bottle, and other data were collected from the CORNIDE DE SAAVEDRA and other platforms from a world-wide distribution from 01 January 1914 to 31 December 1999....

  12. Temperature profile data from XBT casts from a world-wide distribution from the SKOGAFOSS and other vessels as part of NOAA's Volunteer Observing Ships Program from 06 February 2002 to 10 April 2002 (NODC Accession 0000718)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profiles were collected from XBT casts from the SKOGAFOSS and other platforms from a world-wide distribution from 06 February 2002 to 10 April 2002. Data...

  13. Temperature profile data collected using XBT and BT casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 1970-09-30 to 1979-08-05 (NODC Accession 8300089)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using XBT and BT casts from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 30 September 1970 to...

  14. Physical and chemical data collected using bottle casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 1911-11-11 to 1990-03-18 (NODC Accession 9600072)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Physical and chemical data were collected using bottle casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 11 November 1911 to 18...

  15. Temperature profile data collected using XBT and BT casts in a world-wide distribution from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms from 1982-08-18 to 1982-12-21 (NODC Accession 8300007)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using XBT and BT casts from NOAA Ship RESEARCHER and other platforms in a world-wide distribution from 18 August 1982 to 21...

  16. Air/delta/sea surface temperature, pressure, and other data from MISS GAIL in a world-wide distribution from 21 October 1957 to 18 April 1961 (NODC Accession 0000366)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Air/delta/sea surface temperature, pressure, and other data were collected from the MISS GAIL in a world-wide distribution from October 21, 1957 to April 18, 1961....

  17. Physical, biological, and chemical data from radiometer, profiling reflectance radiometer, and CTD casts in a world-wide distribution as part of the SeaWiFS/SIMBIOS project from 13 September 1981 to 16 December 1999 (NODC Accession 0000632)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Physical, biological, and chemical data were collected using radiometer, profiling reflectance radiometer, and CTD casts in a world-wide distribution from 13...

  18. Temperature and nutrients data collected using bottle casts from the SKIF and other platforms in a World-wide distribution from 06 July 1962 to 08 January 1990 (NODC Accession 0000856)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature and nutrients data were collected using bottle casts in a World-wide distribution from SKIF and other platforms. Data were collected from 06 July 1962 to...

  19. Temperature profile data collected using BT and XBT casts in a World-wide distribution from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRIGE and other platforms from 1988-02-03 to 1990-03-31 (NODC Accession 9000094)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected using XBT and BT casts from NOAA Ship MALCOLM BALDRIGE in a World-wide distribution from 03 February 1988 to 31 March 1990....

  20. Physical, chemical, meteorological, and nutrients data from bottle casts from a world-wide distribution from the YERMAK and other platforms from 15 January 1873 to 15 June 1967 (NODC Accession 0000505)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Physical, meteorological, and nutrients data were collected from bottle casts from the YERMAK and other platforms from a world-wide distribution from 15 January 1873...

  1. Temperature profiles from MBT casts from a World-Wide distribution from the ALASKA and other platforms from 1943-02-02 to 1964-10-10 (NODC Accession 9200027)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile data were collected from MBT casts from a a World-Wide distribution. Data were collected from the ALASKA and other platforms from 02 February...

  2. Temperature profile data from XBT casts from a world-wide distribution from the SEA-LAND HAWAII and other platforms as part of NOAA's Volunteer Observing Ships Program from 05 January 2000 to 26 February 2002 (NODC Accession 0000679)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profiles were collected by using XBT casts from the SEA-LAND HAWAII and other platforms from a world-wide distribution from 05 January 2000 to 26...

  3. Distribution of sasX, pvl, and qacA/B genes in epidemic methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains isolated from East China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kong H

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Haishen Kong,1,2 Lingmei Fang,3 Rujin Jiang,4 Jixiang Tong2 1State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; 2Key Laboratory of Clinical In Vitro Diagnostic Techniques of Zhejiang Province, Department of Laboratory Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; 3Clinical Laboratory, Chunan First People’s Hospital, Zhejiang Province People’s Hospital Chunan Branch, Hangzhou, China; 4Clinical Laboratory, Yuhang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hangzhou, China Background: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA is a major nosocomial pathogen. Various virulence and antiseptic-resistant factors increase the pathogenicity of MRSA strains and allow for increased infection rates.Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence and distribution of virulence-associated and antiseptic-resistant genes from epidemic MRSA strains isolated from East China.Methods: A newly designed multiplex PCR assay was used to assess whether the virulence-associated genes sasX and pvl and the chlorhexidine tolerance gene qacA/B were present in 189 clinical isolates of MRSA. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST and Staphylococcal protein A (spa typing of these isolates were also performed. The frequency of these genes in isolates with epidemic sequence types (STs was investigated. Results: Twenty STs and 36 spa types with five epidemic clones (ST5-t311, ST59-t437, ST5-t002, ST239-t030, and ST239-t037 were identified. The prevalence of sasX, pvl, and qacA/B in all isolates was 5.8%, 10.1%, and 20.1%, respectively. The prevalences of these genes in isolates with ST5, ST59, ST239, and other ST genetic backgrounds were all significantly different (P<0.001. Isolates that had the highest frequency of sas

  4. Hepatitis B and hepatitis C viruses: a review of viral genomes, viral induced host immune responses, genotypic distributions and worldwide epidemiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umar Saeed

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Hepatitis B and hepatitis C viruses (HCV are frequently propagating blood borne pathogens in global community. Viral hepatitis is primarily associated with severe health complications, such as liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic fibrosis and steatosis. A literature review was conducted on hepatitis B virus (HBV, HBV genome, genotypic distribution and global epidemiology of HBV, HCV, HCV genome, HCV and host immune responses, HCV genotypic distribution and global epidemiology. The valued information was subjected for review. HBV has strict tissue tropism to liver. The virus infecting hepatocytes produces large amount of hepatitis B surface antigen particles which lack the DNA. It has capability to integrate into host genome. It has been found that genotype C is most emerging genotype associated with more severe liver diseases (cirrhosis. The approximate prevalence rate of genotype C is 27.7% which represents a major threat to future generations. Approximately 8% of population is chronic carrier of HBV in developing countries. The chronic carrier rate of HBV is 2%-7% in Middle East, Eastern and Southern Europe, South America and Japan. Among HCV infected individuals, 15% usually have natural tendency to overcome acute viral infection, where as 85% of individuals were unable to control HCV infection. The internal ribosomal entry site contains highly conserved structures important for binding and appropriate positioning of viral genome inside the host cell. HCV infects only in 1%-10% of hepatocytes, but production of tumor necrosis factor alpha (from CD8+ cells and interferon-gamma cause destruction of both infected cells and non-infected surrounding cells. Almost 11 genotypes and above 100 subtypes of HCV exists worldwide with different geographical distribution. Many efforts are still needed to minimize global burden of these infections. For the complete eradication of HBV (just like small pox and polio via vaccination strategies

  5. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  6. Distributed load shedding: A new industrial technique, born in France, is going to contribute worldwide to a fairer transition in energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bivas, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the possibility of steering demand so as to help maintain an equilibrium on the electricity grid, distributed load shedding is a new activity with worldwide outreach. It will help us save up to 15% of energy by eliminating wastage - at no cost to consumers or taxpayers. It is profitable if we take into account the savings made for the grid as a whole in terms of energy and avoided investments. Suppliers oppose it, since they seek to sell more energy at a higher price. They even pretend that they want to take up this activity in spite of years of foot-dragging on this technology and an evident conflict of interests. Nonetheless, the regulatory framework is being set up with courageous, lucid support from public authorities. This technique, created by Voltalis in Europe, promises savings for the seven million all-electric households (many of them low-income) in France. It will directly create thousands of jobs. This technological, environmental and social innovation is evidence of the turn toward a fair energy transition made by France

  7. Streptococcus suis, an important pig pathogen and emerging zoonotic agent—an update on the worldwide distribution based on serotyping and sequence typing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyette-Desjardins, Guillaume; Auger, Jean-Philippe; Xu, Jianguo; Segura, Mariela; Gottschalk, Marcelo

    2014-01-01

    Streptococcus suis is an important pathogen causing economic problems in the pig industry. Moreover, it is a zoonotic agent causing severe infections to people in close contact with infected pigs or pork-derived products. Although considered sporadic in the past, human S. suis infections have been reported during the last 45 years, with two large outbreaks recorded in China. In fact, the number of reported human cases has significantly increased in recent years. In this review, we present the worldwide distribution of serotypes and sequence types (STs), as determined by multilocus sequence typing, for pigs (between 2002 and 2013) and humans (between 1968 and 2013). The methods employed for S. suis identification and typing, the current epidemiological knowledge regarding serotypes and STs and the zoonotic potential of S. suis are discussed. Increased awareness of S. suis in both human and veterinary diagnostic laboratories and further establishment of typing methods will contribute to our knowledge of this pathogen, especially in regions where complete and/or recent data is lacking. More research is required to understand differences in virulence that occur among S. suis strains and if these differences can be associated with specific serotypes or STs. PMID:26038745

  8. the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

  9. Obesity, insulin resistance and diabetes--a worldwide epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidell, J C

    Obesity is now commonly defined in adults as a BMI > 30 kg/m2. The prevalence of obesity in established market economies (Europe, USA, Canada, Australia, etc.) varies greatly, but a weighed estimate suggests an average prevalence in the order of 15-20%. The prevalence in these countries generally

  10. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  11. Detection of NAM-A1 Natural Variants in Bread Wheat Reveals Differences in Haplotype Distribution between a Worldwide Core Collection and European Elite Germplasm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabien Cormier

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In wheat, remobilization of nitrogen absorbed before anthesis and regulation of monocarpic senescence is a major issue in breeding for nutrient use efficiency. We identified natural variants of NAM-A1, a gene having the same role as its well-characterized homoeolog NAM-B1, a NAC transcription factor associated with senescence kinetics and nutrient remobilization to the grain. Differences in haplotype frequencies between a worldwide core collection and a panel of European elite varieties were assessed and discussed. Moreover, hypotheses for the loss of function of the most common haplotype in elite European germplasm are discussed.

  12. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  13. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  14. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  15. Worldwide cloud cover model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, O. E.; Sommerville, P. N.

    1979-01-01

    Classifying worldwide cloudiness into homogeneous regions, using a satellite data set containing day IR, night IR, incoming, and absorbed solar radiation measurements on a 2.5-degree latitude-longitude grid is considered. Methods of analysis are presented.

  16. Worldwide Airfield Summary

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Worldwide Airfield Summary contains a selection of climatological data produced by the U.S. Air Force, Air Weather Service. The reports were compiled from dozens...

  17. Recent invasion of world-wide wheat growing areas by two aggressive strains of Puccinia striiformis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walter, Stephanie; Ali, Sajid; Justesen, Annemarie Fejer

    2012-01-01

    The ever more frequent and severe large-scale epidemics of wheat yellow/stripe rust disease (caused by Puccinia striiformis) pose a severe threat to the world’s wheat production (Hovmøller et al. 2010). The onset of a new series of world-wide wheat yellow rust epidemics in 2000 has been linked...

  18. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  19. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  20. Elecnuc. Nuclear power plants worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    This small folder presents a digest of some useful information concerning the nuclear power plants worldwide and the situation of nuclear industry at the end of 1997: power production of nuclear origin, distribution of reactor types, number of installed units, evolution and prediction of reactor orders, connections to the grid and decommissioning, worldwide development of nuclear power, evolution of power production of nuclear origin, the installed power per reactor type, market shares and exports of the main nuclear engineering companies, power plants constructions and orders situation, evolution of reactors performances during the last 10 years, know-how and development of nuclear safety, the remarkable facts of 1997, the future of nuclear power and the energy policy trends. (J.S.)

  1. The Diabetes Epidemic in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junghyun Noh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is one of the foremost public health issues worldwide that can lead to complications in many organ systems, and has become a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Korea. According to data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS, about 2.7 million Koreans (8.0% aged 30 years or older had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in 2013. The prevalence of T2DM increased with age and rose from 5.6% in 2006 to 8.0% in 2013. Using data based on The Health Screening Service of the NHIS, 25% of Korean adults were reported to have prediabetes in 2013. The prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose tended to increase over time from 21.5% in 2006 to 25.0% in 2013. Even though nationwide health screening has been regularly conducted as a public service, the proportion of undiagnosed cases of diabetes was still reported to be on the higher side in the latest study. Based on the results of these epidemic studies, further actions will be needed to effectively implement lifestyle changes on a social level and increase measures for the early detection of diabetes to stem the tide of the epidemic.

  2. Nuclear energy worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fertel, M.

    2000-01-01

    In this short paper the author provides a list of tables and charts concerning the nuclear energy worldwide, the clean air benefits of nuclear energy, the nuclear competitiveness and the public opinion. He shows that the nuclear energy has a vital role to play in satisfying global energy and environmental goals. (A.L.B)

  3. EOR increases 24% worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moritis, G.

    1992-01-01

    Although the higher cost of enhanced oil recovery has taken its toll in projects, the Journal's worldwide EOR survey reveals that production from EOR is a significant and growing component of the world's oil production. This paper outlines hundreds of projects in 14 countries. Pilot, field wide, and planned projects are all included

  4. Worldwide Report, Epidemiology, No. 327

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1983-01-01

    Partial Contents: Epidemiology, Human Diseases, Health, Malaria, AIDS, Homosexual Male, Medical Administration, Rabies, Tuberculosis, Encephalitis Statistics, Gastroenteritie, Mystery Diseases, Children, Epidemics...

  5. Phenotypic and Genotypic Comparison of Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Duong

    Full Text Available Epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa have been found worldwide among the cystic fibrosis (CF patient population. Using pulse-field gel electrophoresis, the Prairie Epidemic Strain (PES has recently been found in one-third of patients attending the Calgary Adult CF Clinic in Canada. Using multi-locus sequence typing, PES isolates from unrelated patients were found to consistently have ST192. Though most patients acquired PES prior to enrolling in the clinic, some patients were observed to experience strain replacement upon transitioning to the clinic whereby local non-epidemic P. aeruginosa isolates were displaced by PES. Here we genotypically and phenotypically compared PES to other P. aeruginosa epidemic strains (OES found around the world as well as local non-epidemic CF P. aeruginosa isolates in order to characterize PES. Since some epidemic strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes, we assessed the pathogenic potential of PES to determine if these isolates are virulent, shared properties with OES, and if its phenotypic properties may offer a competitive advantage in displacing local non-epidemic isolates during strain replacement. As such, we conducted a comparative analysis using fourteen phenotypic traits, including virulence factor production, biofilm formation, planktonic growth, mucoidy, and antibiotic susceptibility to characterize PES, OES, and local non-epidemic isolates. We observed that PES and OES could be differentiated from local non-epidemic isolates based on biofilm growth with PES isolates being more mucoid. Pairwise comparisons indicated that PES produced significantly higher levels of proteases and formed better biofilms than OES but were more susceptible to antibiotic treatment. Amongst five patients experiencing strain replacement, we found that super-infecting PES produced lower levels of proteases and elastases but were more resistant to antibiotics compared to the displaced non-epidemic isolates. This

  6. Aspects on the history of transmission and favor of distribution of viruses by iatrogenic action: perhaps an example of a paradigm of the worldwide spread of HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gürtler, Lutz G; Eberle, Josef

    2017-08-01

    Transmission of infectious agents might be associated with iatrogenic actions of charitable help in health care. An example is the vaccination against yellow fever in USA that transmitted hepatitis B virus. Another example is injections of praziquantel for treatment and cure of schistosomiasis in Central and Northern Africa, with a focus in Egypt that has spread hepatitis C virus. There is no indication that human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 was spread by injection treatment for African trypanosomiasis, syphilis and treponematosis, but these treatments might have contributed to the early spread of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in Central Africa. Slave trade contributed as well to the spread of viruses from Africa to the Americas; it was stopped in 1850. Until that date HIV-1 was not transported to the Americas. By analysis of nucleic acid sequence data it can be concluded that the continental spread of HCV and HIV-1 might have started around 1920 with an exponential phase from 1940 to 1970. Further iatrogenic actions that promoted the spread of HCV and HIV-1 might be vaccinations to prevent deadly diseases. The successful vaccination was followed by diminution of the infectious agent in the population such as small pox, yellow fever and measles. Measurements to reduce the spread of plague and cholera were further benefits increasing survival of diseased subjects in a population. Thus, the reduction of exposure to deadly infectious agents might have given a chance to HIV-1 infected subjects to survive and for HIV-1 to be distributed around the world starting from Central Africa in the 1950s.

  7. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Worldwide epidemiology of fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Queiroz, Luiz Paulo

    2013-08-01

    Studying the epidemiology of fibromyalgia (FM) is very important to understand the impact of this disorder on persons, families and society. The recent modified 2010 classification criteria of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR), without the need of tender points palpation, allows that larger and nationwide surveys may be done, worldwide. This article reviews the prevalence and incidence studies done in the general population, in several countries/continents, the prevalence of FM in special groups/settings, the association of FM with some sociodemographic characteristics of the population, and the comorbidity of FM with others disorders, especially with headaches.

  9. Worldwide nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Royen, J.

    1981-01-01

    Worldwide nuclear power (WNP) is a companion volume to UPDATE. Our objective in the publication of WNP is to provide factual information on nuclear power programs and policies in foreign countries to U.S. policymakers in the Federal Government who are instrumental in defining the direction of nuclear power in the U.S. WNP is prepared by the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy from reports obtained from foreign Embassies in Washington, U.S. Embassies overseas, foreign and domestic publications, participation in international studies, and personal communications. Domestic nuclear data is included only where its presence is needed to provide easy and immediate comparisons with foreign data

  10. Worldwide installed geothermal power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laplaige, P.

    1995-01-01

    Worldwide electric energy production data are easy to compile, according to the informations given by individual countries. On the contrary, thermal applications of geothermics are difficult to quantify due to the variety of applications and the number of countries concerned. Exhaustive informations sometimes cannot be obtained from huge countries (China, Russia..) because of data centralization problems or not exploitable data transmission. Therefore, installed power data for geothermal heat production are given for 26 countries over the 57 that have answered the International Geothermal Association questionnaire. (J.S.). 1 fig., 2 tabs., 1 photo

  11. Compilation of ocean circulation and other data from ADCP current meters, CTD casts, tidal gauges, and other instruments from a World-Wide distribution by Oregon State University and other institutions as part of World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and other projects from 24 November 1985 to 30 December 2000 (NODC Accession 0000649)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Compilation of ocean circulation and other data were collected from a World-Wide distribution by Oregon State University (OSU) and other institutions as part of...

  12. Temperature profile data from STD/CTD casts from the KNORR from a world-wide distribution during the International Decade of Ocean Exploration / Geochemical Ocean Section Study (IDOE/GEOSECS) project, 24 July 1972 - 09 June 1974 (NODC Accession 8200010)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature and salinity profile data were collected using STD/CTD casts from KNORR in a world-wide distribution from July 24, 1972 to June 9, 1974. Data were...

  13. Temperature profile and other data collected using bottle and CTD casts from the A. AGASSIZ and other platforms from a world-wide distribution during the California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation (CALCOFI) project, 06 January 1969 to 27 July 1977 (NODC Accession 8000006)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic Station Data, temperature, and other data were collected using CTD and bottle casts from A. AGASSIZ and other platforms in a world-wide distribution...

  14. Temperature profile and other data collected using bottle and CTD casts from the HMAS DERWENT and other platforms from a world-wide distribution during the California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation (CALCOFI) project, 03 August 1904 to 31 December 1964 (NODC Accession 6400000)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic Station Data, temperature, and other data were collected using CTD and bottle casts from HMAS DERWENT and other platforms in a world-wide distribution...

  15. Temperature profile and other data collected using bottle and CTD casts from the PARRAMATTA and other platforms in a world-wide distribution during the California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation (CALCOFI) project, 04 October 1903 to 19 December 1963 (NODC Accession 6300000)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic Station Data, temperature, and other data were collected using CTD and bottle casts from PARRAMATTA and other platforms in a world-wide distribution...

  16. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  17. Worldwide nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1981-01-01

    Worldwide Nuclear Power (WNP) is a companion volume to Update. Our objective in the publication of WNP is to provide factual information on nuclear power programs and policies in foreign countries to U.S. policymakers in the Federal Government. Facts about the status of nuclear activities abroad should be available to those who are instrumental in defining the direction of nuclear power in the U.S. WNP is prepared by the Office of Nuclear Energy from reports obtained from foreign embassies in Washington, U.S. Embassies overseas, foreign and domestic publications, participation in international studies, and personal communications. It consists of two types of information, tabular and narrative. Domestic nuclear data is included only where its presence is needed to provide easy and immediate comparisons with foreign data. In general, complete U.S. information will be found in Update

  18. Obesity and kidney disease: hidden consequences of the epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obesity has become a worldwide epidemic, and its prevalence has been projected to grow by 40% in the next decade. This increasing prevalence has implications for the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and also for Chronic Kidney Disease. A high body mass index is one of the strongest risk factors for new-onset ...

  19. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  20. Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2017-05-01

    We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

  1. Worldwide molecular epidemiology of HIV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry I Z Requejo

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV is the worldwide disseminated causative agent of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS. HIV is a member of the Lentivirus genus of Retroviridae family and is grouped in two types named HIV-1 and HIV-2. These viruses have a notable ability to mutate and adapt to the new conditions of human environment. A large incidence of errors at the transcriptional level results in changes on the genetic bases during the reproductive cycle. The elevated genomic variability of HIV has carried important implications for the diagnosis, treatment and prevention as well as epidemiologic investigations. The present review describes important definitions and geographical distribution of subtypes, circulating recombinant forms and other genomic variations of HIV. The present study aimed at leading students of Biomedical Sciences and public health laboratory staff guidance to general and specific knowledge about the genomic variability of the HIV.

  2. A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

    2011-12-01

    A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

  3. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  4. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  5. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  6. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  7. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  8. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  9. Spatial distribution of radionuclides in soil around a coal-fired power plant: lead 210, polonium 210, radium 226, thorium 232, kalium 40 emitted with the fly ash and cesium 137 from the worldwide weapon testing fallout

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunzl, K.; Hoetzl, H.; Rosner, G.; Winkler, R.

    1984-09-01

    To determine the effect of airborne emissions of radionuclides from coal-fired power plants on the environment, the concentrations of the most important radionuclides were measured in soil samples from the local environments (0.4-5.2 km) as well as in fly ash. The spatial distribution of the radionuclides in the soil did not indicate any significantly increased concentrations in the area downwind of the plant compared to other areas; the ratios lead 210/radium 226 and polonium 210/radium 226 were within the range observed for unaffected soils. The emissions from the plant, though present, are obviously too small to significantly change the natural local distribution pattern of the radionuclides in the soil. A highly significant correlation between potassium 40 and thorium 232 was observed which was independent of the different types of soils found in this area. The concentration of cesium 137 in topsoil, which is the result of worldwide fallout from nuclear weapons testing, varied at some places even within a small distance (approx. 2 km) by up to one order of magnitude. Furthermore, it was observed that the concentration of cesium 137 in soils from cropland was on average a factor of 2 less than in those from grassland. This variability has to be considered in planning monitoring programs around nuclear power plants, which may also release this radionuclide. (A.V.)

  10. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  11. Nuclear materials transport worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stellpflug, J.

    1987-01-01

    This Greenpeace report shows: nuclear materials transport is an extremely hazardous business. There is no safe protection against accidents, kidnapping, or sabotage. Any moment of a day, at any place, a nuclear transport accident may bring the world to disaster, releasing plutonium or radioactive fission products to the environment. Such an event is not less probable than the MCA at Chernobyl. The author of the book in hand follows the secret track of radioactive materials around the world, from uranium mines to the nuclear power plants, from reprocessing facilities to the waste repositories. He explores the routes of transport and the risks involved, he gives the names of transport firms and discloses incidents and carelessness, tells about damaged waste drums and plutonium that 'disappeared'. He also tells about worldwide, organised resistance to such nuclear transports, explaining the Greenpeace missions on the open sea, or the 'day X' operation at the Gorleben site, informing the reader about protests and actions for a world freed from the threat of nuclear energy. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  13. The worldwide "wildfire" problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, A Malcolm; Stephens, Scott L; Cary, Geoffrey J

    2013-03-01

    The worldwide "wildfire" problem is headlined by the loss of human lives and homes, but it applies generally to any adverse effects of unplanned fires, as events or regimes, on a wide range of environmental, social, and economic assets. The problem is complex and contingent, requiring continual attention to the changing circumstances of stakeholders, landscapes, and ecosystems; it occurs at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Minimizing adverse outcomes involves controlling fires and fire regimes, increasing the resistance of assets to fires, locating or relocating assets away from the path of fires, and, as a probability of adverse impacts often remains, assisting recovery in the short-term while promoting the adaptation of societies in the long-term. There are short- and long-term aspects to each aspect of minimization. Controlling fires and fire regimes may involve fire suppression and fuel treatments such as prescribed burning or non-fire treatments but also addresses issues associated with unwanted fire starts like arson. Increasing the resistance of assets can mean addressing the design and construction materials of a house or the use of personal protective equipment. Locating or relocating assets can mean leaving an area about to be impacted by fire or choosing a suitable place to live; it can also mean the planning of land use. Assisting recovery and promoting adaptation can involve insuring assets and sharing responsibility for preparedness for an event. There is no single, simple, solution. Perverse outcomes can occur. The number of minimizing techniques used, and the breadth and depth of their application, depends on the geographic mix of asset types. Premises for policy consideration are presented.

  14. Worldwide effort against smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-07-01

    The 39th World Health Assembly, which met in May 1986, recognized the escalating health problem of smoking-related diseases and affirmed that tobacco smoking and its use in other forms are incompatible with the attainment of "Health for All by the Year 2000." If properly implemented, antismoking campaigns can decrease the prevalence of smoking. Nations as a whole must work toward changing smoking habits, and governments must support these efforts by officially stating their stand against smoking. Over 60 countries have introduced legislation affecting smoking. The variety of policies range from adopting a health education program designed to increase peoples' awareness of its dangers to increasing taxes to deter smoking by increasing tobacco prices. Each country must adopt an antismoking campaign which works most effectively within the cultural parameters of the society. Other smoking policies include: printed warnings on cigarette packages; health messages via radio, television, mobile teams, pamphlets, health workers, clinic walls, and newspapers; prohibition of smoking in public areas and transportation; prohibition of all advertisement of cigarettes and tobacco; and the establishment of upper limits of tar and nicotine content in cigarettes. The tobacco industry spends about $2000 million annually on worldwide advertising. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), controlling this overabundance of tobacco advertisements is a major priority in preventing the spread of smoking. Cigarette and tobacco advertising can be controlled to varying degrees, e.g., over a dozen countries have enacted a total ban on advertising on television or radio, a mandatory health warning must accompany advertisements in other countries, and tobacco companies often are prohibited from sponsoring sports events. Imposing a substantial tax on cigarettes is one of the most effective means to deter smoking. However, raising taxes and banning advertisements is not enough because

  15. Worldwide developments in uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoellen, E.E.

    1987-01-01

    World uranium production will continue to change in most major producing nations. Canadian production will increase and will be increasingly dominated by western producers as eastern Canadian high-cost production declines. Australian production will increase as major projects come into operation before 2000. US production will stabilize through the end of the century. South African production will be dependent upon the worldwide support for economic sanctions. China's entry into the world market injects yet another variable into the already cloudy supply picture. Many risks and uncertainties will face uranium producers through the 1980s. Recognizing that the uranium industry is not a fast-growing market, many existing and potential producers are seeking alternate investment courses, causing a restructuring of the world uranium production industry in ways not anticipated even a few years ago. During the restructuring process, world uranium production will most likely continue to exceed uranium consumption, resulting in a further buildup of world uranium inventories. Inventory sales will continue to redistribute this material. As inventory selling runs its course, users will turn to normal sources of supply, stimulating additional production to meet needs. Stimulation in the form of higher prices will be determined by how fast producers are willing and able to return to the market. Production costs are expected to have an increasing impact as it has become apparent that uranium resources are large in comparison to projected consumption. Conversely, security-of-supply issues have seemed to be of decreasing magnitude as Canada, Australia, and other non-US producers continue to meet delivery commitments

  16. Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-03-19

    Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in

  17. Equipment and services for worldwide applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-01-01

    The report presents a digest of geothermal energy technology. The worldwide distribution of geothermal resources is described, and the degree to which various countries are exploiting their resources estimated. Detailed information about US technologies is presented, from exploration through applications to cost factors. (ACR)

  18. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  19. Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

    2017-02-10

    The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

  20. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  1. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  3. The worldwide ionospheric data base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilitza, Dieter

    1989-01-01

    The worldwide ionospheric data base is scattered over the entire globe. Different data sets are held at different institutions in the U.S., U.S.S.R., Australia, Europe, and Asia. The World Data Centers on the different continents archive and distribute part of the huge data base; the scope and cross section of the individual data holdings depend on the regional and special interest of the center. An attempt is made to pull together all the strings that point toward different ionospheric data holdings. Requesters are provided with the information about what is available and where to get it. An attempt is also made to evaluate the reliability and compatibility of the different data sets based on the consensus in the ionospheric research community. The status and accuracy of the standard ionospheric models are also discussed because they may facilitate first order assessment of ionospheric effects. This is a first step toward an ionospheric data directory within the framework of NSSDC's master directory.

  4. The worldwide ionospheric data base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilitza, D.

    1989-04-01

    The worldwide ionospheric data base is scattered over the entire globe. Different data sets are held at different institutions in the U.S., U.S.S.R., Australia, Europe, and Asia. The World Data Centers on the different continents archive and distribute part of the huge data base; the scope and cross section of the individual data holdings depend on the regional and special interest of the center. An attempt is made to pull together all the strings that point toward different ionospheric data holdings. Requesters are provided with the information about what is available and where to get it. An attempt is also made to evaluate the reliability and compatibility of the different data sets based on the consensus in the ionospheric research community. The status and accuracy of the standard ionospheric models are also discussed because they may facilitate first order assessment of ionospheric effects. This is a first step toward an ionospheric data directory within the framework of NSSDC's master directory

  5. Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

    2013-12-01

    Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

  6. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  8. Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

    2018-12-01

    Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

  9. Worldwide energy prospects and nuclear contribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-04-01

    With a growing up worldwide population and a better standard of living, the global energy consumption will rise. The CO 2 emissions will increase too because of todays share of fossil fuels in the energy sources. This paper analyzes the possible contribution of nuclear energy in this context: economical and environmental aspects, political aspects (distribution of energy resources, energy dependence), energy efficiency, reduction of CO 2 emissions. (J.S.)

  10. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  11. Epidemics after Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

  12. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  13. Preventing the Epidemic of Mental Ill Health: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Robson , Anthony ,

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Diet, lifestyle and environment do not just affect a person's health, they also determine the health of their children and possibly the health of their grandchildren. Mental ill health is an epidemic worldwide because of the combined effect of the modern diet and a sedentary lifestyle. Primary prevention of mental ill health starts, crucially, with optimal adult nutrition before the inception of pregnancy, includes breastfeeding, and continues throughout the life of th...

  14. Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

    2018-05-01

    The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

  15. Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

  16. Warm mid-Cretaceous high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the southern Tethys Ocean and cool high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the Arctic Ocean: asymmetric worldwide distribution of dinoflagellates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masure, Edwige; Desmares, Delphine; Vrielynck, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    Dealing with 87 articles and using a Geographical Information System, Masure and Vrielynck (2009) have mapped worldwide biogeography of 38 Late Albian dinoflagellate cysts and have demonstrated Cretaceous oceanic bioclimatic belts. For comparison 30 Aptian species derived from 49 studies (Masure et al., 2013) and 49 Cenomanian species recorded from 33 articles have been encountered. Tropical, Subtropical, Boreal, Austral, bipolar and cosmopolitan species have been identified and Cretaceous dinoflagellate biomes are introduced. Asymmetric distribution of Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian subtropical Tethyan species, from 40°N to 70°S, demonstrates asymmetric Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients with warm water masses in high latitudes of Southern Ocean. The SST gradients were stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. We note that Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian dinoflagellates restricted to subtropical and subpolar latitudes met and mixed at 35-40°N, while they mixed from 30°S to 70°S and from 50°S to 70°S respectively in the Southern Hemisphere. Mixing belts extend on 5° in the Northern Hemisphere and along 40° (Aptian) and 20° (Late Albian/Cenomanian) in the Southern one. The board southern mixing belt of Tethyan and Austral dinoflagellates suggest co-occurrence of warm and cold currents. We record climatic changes such as the Early Aptian cooler period and Late Aptian and Albian warming through the poleward migration of species constrained to cool water masses. These species sensitive to temperature migrated from 35°N to 55°N through the shallow Greenland-Norwergian Seaway connecting the Central Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. While Tethyan species did not migrate staying at 40°N. We suggest that the Greenland-Norwergian Seaway might has been a barrier until Late Albian/Cenomanian for oceanic Tethyan dinoflagellates stopped either by the shallow water column or temperature and salinity

  17. The relationship between human behavior and the process of epidemic spreading in a real social network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A.; Rosińska, M.

    2012-07-01

    On the basis of experimental data on interactions between humans we have investigated the process of epidemic spreading in a social network. We found that the distribution of the number of contacts maintained in one day is exponential. Data on frequency and duration of interpersonal interactions are presented. They allow us to simulate the spread of droplet-/-air-borne infections and to investigate the influence of human dynamics on the epidemic spread. Specifically, we investigated the influence of the distribution of frequency and duration of those contacts on magnitude, epidemic threshold and peak timing of epidemics propagating in respective networks. It turns out that a large increase in the magnitude of an epidemic and a decrease in epidemic threshold are visible if and only if both are taken into account. We have found that correlation between contact frequency and duration strongly influences the effectiveness of control measures like mass immunization campaigns.

  18. World-wide environmental problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wohlers, H.C.

    1975-01-01

    Man and the physical and natural resources necessary to support him in a civilized society are on a collision course. It is simple to say that man cannot continue to grow in number at an ever-increasing rate without a destructive effect upon the environment. Positive scientific proof for this impending calamity is not now available, yet many indications--sometimes physical and sometimes natural--point toward major world-wide environmental troubles in the near future. A number of environmental problems are described, particularly as they relate to the total world system. A computer model simulating future world-wide environmental trends from 1900 to 2100 A.D. is evaluated and suggested as a major tool for data-gathering purposes to determine the extent of world-wide environmental problems. It is suggested that scientists take an active role in the study of the environment, particularly in relation to man's future on earth

  19. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  20. Aging Education: A Worldwide Imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Sandra L.

    2017-01-01

    Life expectancy is increasing worldwide. Unfortunately, people are generally not prepared for this long life ahead and have ageist attitudes that inhibit maximizing the "longevity dividend" they have been given. Aging education can prepare people for life's later years and combat ageism. It can reimage aging as a time of continued…

  1. Tube problems: worldwide statistics reviewed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    EPRI's Steam Generator Strategic Management Project issues an annual report on the progress being made in tackling steam generator problems worldwide, containing a wealth of detailed statistics on the status of operating units and degradation mechanisms encountered. A few highlights are presented from the latest report, issued in October 1993, which covers the period to 31 December 1992. (Author)

  2. Worldwide exposures to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, B.G.

    1993-01-01

    All of mankind is exposed to ionizing radiation from natural sources, from human practices that release natural and artificial radionuclides to the environment, and from medical radiation procedures. This paper reviews the assessment in the UNSCEAR 1993 Report of the exposures of human populations worldwide to the various sources of ionizing radiation

  3. Epidemics on adaptive networks with geometric constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Schwartz, Ira

    2008-03-01

    When a population is faced with an epidemic outbreak, individuals may modify their social behavior to avoid exposure to the disease. Recent work has considered models in which the contact network is rewired dynamically so that susceptibles avoid contact with infectives. We consider extensions in which the rewiring is subject to constraints that preserve key properties of the social network structure. Constraining to a fixed degree distribution destroys previously observed bistable behavior. The most effective rewiring strategy is found to depend on the spreading rate.

  4. Worldwide electricity used in data centers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koomey, Jonathan G

    2008-01-01

    The direct electricity used by data centers has become an important issue in recent years as demands for new Internet services (such as search, music downloads, video-on-demand, social networking, and telephony) have become more widespread. This study estimates historical electricity used by data centers worldwide and regionally on the basis of more detailed data than were available for previous assessments, including electricity used by servers, data center communications, and storage equipment. Aggregate electricity use for data centers doubled worldwide from 2000 to 2005. Three quarters of this growth was the result of growth in the number of the least expensive (volume) servers. Data center communications and storage equipment each contributed about 10% of the growth. Total electricity use grew at an average annual rate of 16.7% per year, with the Asia Pacific region (without Japan) being the only major world region with growth significantly exceeding that average. Direct electricity used by information technology equipment in data centers represented about 0.5% of total world electricity consumption in 2005. When electricity for cooling and power distribution is included, that figure is about 1%. Worldwide data center power demand in 2005 was equivalent (in capacity terms) to about seventeen 1000 MW power plants.

  5. Worldwide electricity used in data centers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2008-07-01

    The direct electricity used by data centers has become an important issue in recent years as demands for new Internet services (such as search, music downloads, video-on-demand, social networking, and telephony) have become more widespread. This study estimates historical electricity used by data centers worldwide and regionally on the basis of more detailed data than were available for previous assessments, including electricity used by servers, data center communications, and storage equipment. Aggregate electricity use for data centers doubled worldwide from 2000 to 2005. Three quarters of this growth was the result of growth in the number of the least expensive (volume) servers. Data center communications and storage equipment each contributed about 10% of the growth. Total electricity use grew at an average annual rate of 16.7% per year, with the Asia Pacific region (without Japan) being the only major world region with growth significantly exceeding that average. Direct electricity used by information technology equipment in data centers represented about 0.5% of total world electricity consumption in 2005. When electricity for cooling and power distribution is included, that figure is about 1%. Worldwide data center power demand in 2005 was equivalent (in capacity terms) to about seventeen 1000 MW power plants.

  6. Scaling of the propagation of epidemics in a system of mobile agents

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalez, M. C.; Herrmann, H. J.

    2004-01-01

    For a two-dimensional system of agents modeled by molecular dynamics, we simulate epidemics spreading, which was recently studied on complex networks. Our resulting network model is time-evolving. We study the transitions to spreading as function of density, temperature and infection time. In addition, we analyze the epidemic threshold associated to a power-law distribution of infection times.

  7. Worldwide reprocessing supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinto, S.

    1987-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to broadly examine the current situation in the LWR fuel reprocessing services market on a worldwide basis through 2010. The main factors influencing this market (nuclear programs, fuel discharges, reprocessing capacities, buyer philosophies, etc.) are identified in the paper and the most important are highlighted and discussed in more detail. Emphasis has been placed on the situation with respect to reprocessing in those countries having a significant influence on the reprocessing market

  8. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  9. [Paediatric emergencies; example of the management of winter epidemics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercier, Jean-Christophe; Bellettre, Xavier; Lejay, Émilie; Desmarest, Marie; Titomanlio, Luigi

    2015-01-01

    Every year, epidemics of viral bronchiolitis and gastroenteritis occur with a significant increase in the number of visits (by a factor 1.8) and hospitalisations that can over-exceed bed capacity leading to transfer sick children to other hospitals. This kind of hospital 'crisis' is not limited to paediatrics, big cities or western nations. It is a worldwide worrying problem. Because our hospital sits in the Northern districts of Paris where a large community of m.ncants lives in poverty, our number of visits is high (mean 250 per day), and winter epidemics further jeopardise the difficult equilibrium achieved between quality management and waiting times. Thus, we have taken various initiatives in terms of organisation of the paediatric emergency department and other wards, including a "fast track" clinic, the opening of beds dedicated to winter epidemics, the institution of a "bed manager" in order to more easily find a bed, and a larger use of home hospitalisations. Furthermore, we created a specific committee which may decide on various indicators of tension whether it is necessary to cancel programmed hospitalisations or surgery.in order to resolve the emergency crisis. This kind of organisation can serve as a model for other hospitals facing winter epidemics crises.

  10. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  11. A threshold limit theorem for the stochastic logistic epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Andersson, Håkan; Djehiche, Boualem

    1998-01-01

    The time until extinction for the closed SIS stochastic logistic epidemic model is investigated. We derive the asymptotic distribution for the extinction time as the population grows to infinity, under different initial conditions and for different values of the infection rate.

  12. Chronic interstitial nephritis in agricultural communities: a worldwide epidemic with social, occupational and environmental determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayasumana, Channa; Orantes, Carlos; Herrera, Raul; Almaguer, Miguel; Lopez, Laura; Silva, Luis Carlos; Ordunez, Pedro; Siribaddana, Sisira; Gunatilake, Sarath; De Broe, Marc E

    2017-02-01

    Increase in the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is observed in Central America, Sri Lanka and other tropical countries. It is named chronic interstitial nephritis in agricultural communities (CINAC). CINAC is defined as a form of CKD that affects mainly young men, occasionally women. Its aetiology is not linked to diabetes, hypertension, glomerulopathies or other known causes. CINAC patients live and work in poor agricultural communities located in CINAC endemic areas with a hot tropical climate, and are exposed to toxic agrochemicals through work, by ingestion of contaminated food and water, or by inhalation. The disease is characterized by low or absent proteinuria, small kidneys with irregular contours in CKD stages 3–4 presenting tubulo-interstitial lesions and glomerulosclerosis at renal biopsy. Although the aetiology of CINAC is unclear, it appears to be multifactorial. Two hypotheses emphasizing different primary triggers have been proposed: one related to toxic exposures in the agricultural communities, the other related to heat stress with repeated episodes of dehydration heath stress and dehydration. Existing evidence supports occupational and environmental toxins as the primary trigger. The heat stress and dehydration hypothesis, however, cannot explain: why the incidence of CINAC went up along with increasing mechanization of paddy farming in the 1990s; the non-existence of CINAC in hotter northern Sri Lanka, Cuba and Myanmar where agrochemicals are sparsely used; the mosaic geographical pattern in CINAC endemic areas; the presence of CINAC among women, children and adolescents who are not exposed to the harsh working conditions; and the observed extra renal manifestations of CINAC. This indicates that heat stress and dehydration may be a contributory or even a necessary risk factor, but which is not able to cause CINAC by itself.

  13. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  14. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  15. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  16. Partial LVAD restores ventricular outputs and normalizes LV but not RV stress distributions in the acutely failing heart in silico

    OpenAIRE

    Sack, Kevin L.; Baillargeon, Brian; Acevedo-Bolton, Gabriel; Genet, Martin; Rebelo, Nuno; Kuhl, Ellen; Klein, Liviu; Weiselthaler, Georg M.; Burkhoff, Daniel; Franz, Thomas; Guccione, Julius M.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Heart failure is a worldwide epidemic that is unlikely to change as the population ages and life expectancy increases. We sought to detail significant recent improvements to the Dassault Systèmes Living Heart Model (LHM) and use the LHM to compute left ventricular (LV) and right ventricular (RV) myofiber stress distributions under the following 4 conditions: (1) normal cardiac function; (2) acute left heart failure (ALHF); (3) ALHF treated using an LV assist device (LVAD) flow rate o...

  17. The incidence of abortion worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henshaw, S K; Singh, S; Haas, T

    1999-01-01

    Accurate measurement of induced abortion levels has proven difficult in many parts of the world. Health care workers and policymakers need information on the incidence of both legal and illegal induced abortion to provide the needed services and to reduce the negative impact of unsafe abortion on women's health. Numbers and rates of induced abortions were estimated from four sources: official statistics or other national data on legal abortions in 57 countries; estimates based on population surveys for two countries without official statistics; special studies for 10 countries where abortion is highly restricted; and worldwide and regional estimates of unsafe abortion from the World Health Organization. Approximately 26 million legal and 20 million illegal abortions were performed worldwide in 1995, resulting in a worldwide abortion rate of 35 per 1,000 women aged 15-44. Among the subregions of the world, Eastern Europe had the highest abortion rate (90 per 1,000) and Western Europe to the lowest rate (11 per 1,000). Among countries where abortion is legal without restriction as to reason, the highest abortion rate, 83 per 1,000, was reported for Vietnam and the lowest, seven per 1,000, for Belgium and the Netherlands. Abortion rates are no lower overall in areas where abortion is generally restricted by law (and where many abortions are performed under unsafe conditions) than in areas where abortion is legally permitted. Both developed and developing countries can have low abortion rates. Most countries, however, have moderate to high abortion rates, reflecting lower prevalence and effectiveness of contraceptive use. Stringent legal restrictions do not guarantee a low abortion rate.

  18. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  19. Worldwide Warehouse: A Customer Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    Management Office (PMO) and the customers (returnees and buyers) 23 will be developed or adapted from existing software programs. The hardware could be... customer requirements and desires is the first aspect to be approached. Sections 4.7 to 4.11 were dedicated to inivestigate those relationships and...R x NTIS CRA&I DTIC TAB WORLDWIDE WAREHOUSE: Ju’a-noj1c0[ed 0 A CUSTOMER PERSPECTIVE J-f-c-.tion .......... THESIS By D i s ib , tio

  20. Pace studying worldwide coke production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Pace Consultants Inc., Houston, has started a multiclient study of world-wide petroleum coke production, examining environmental initiatives and eventually forecasting prices of fuel grade coke. Pace expects coker expansions, increased operating severity, and reduced cycle times to boost coke supply to more than 50 million metric tons/year in 2000, compared with 39.7 million metric tons in 1992. Increased supply and tightened environmental rules in countries consuming large amounts of petroleum coke will be the main factors affecting coke markets. The paper discusses coke quality and the Japanese market

  1. Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sazonov, Igor; Kelbert, Mark; Gravenor, Michael B

    2016-04-01

    We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

  3. Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

    2017-01-01

    Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

  5. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  6. Worldwide spent fuel transportation logistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Best, R.E.; Garrison, R.F.

    1978-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the worldwide transportation requirements for spent fuel. Included are estimates of numbers and types of shipments by mode and cask type for 1985 and the year 2000. In addition, projected capital and transportation costs are presented. For the year 1977 and prior years inclusive, there is a cumulative worldwide requirement for approximately 300 MTU of spent fuel storage at away-from-reactor (AFR) facilities. The cumulative requirements for years through 1985 are projected to be nearly 10,000 MTU, and for the years through 2000 the requirements are conservatively expected to exceed 60,000 MTU. These AFR requirements may be related directly to spent fuel transportation requirements. In total nearly 77,000 total cask shipments of spent fuel will be required between 1977 and 2000. These shipments will include truck, rail, and intermodal moves with many ocean and coastal water shipments. A limited number of shipments by air may also occur. The US fraction of these is expected to include 39,000 truck shipments and 14,000 rail shipments. European shipments to regional facilities are expected to be primarily by rail or water mode and are projected to account for 16,000 moves. Pacific basin shipments will account for 4500 moves. The remaining are from other regions. Over 400 casks will be needed to meet the transportation demands. Capital investment is expected to reach $800,000,000 in 1977 dollars. Cumulative transport costs will be a staggering $4.4 billion dollars

  7. Dutch Q fever epidemic in a ‘One Health’ context: outbreaks, seroprevalence and occupational risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schimmer, Barbara

    2018-01-01

    Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii (C. burnetii). Small ruminants, in particular sheep and goats, have been associated with community Q fever outbreaks in other countries. Just prior to the Dutch Q fever epidemic, a nationwide survey indicated that only 2.4% of

  8. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  9. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  10. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  11. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

  12. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  13. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shobugawa, Yugo; Wiafe, Seth A; Saito, Reiko; Suzuki, Tsubasa; Inaida, Shinako; Taniguchi, Kiyosu; Suzuki, Hiroshi

    2012-06-19

    Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was -0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak, WSD value changed to be a

  14. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shobugawa Yugo

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012 and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045, but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant. It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an

  15. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak

  16. Worldwide Market For Scientific Lasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westra, Sicco

    1989-06-01

    I'm going to talk about the worldwide market for scientific lasers. I felt we should start with a quote from our soon-to-be President and learn from him how he feels about the commitment that the government should make to R&D. "R&D is the economic Fountain of Youth, and we really should take good care of it because that is where our business is for the future." If you read through that quote, it is very clear that at least before the election, he made a very strong commitment to this. It will be interesting to see over the next four years whether he keeps to that commitment or not, but I happen to totally agree with what he is saying here. The R&D market, as I see it, is certainly, as far as lasers are concerned, the growth place for new technology and applications.

  17. Wood-burning stoves worldwide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luis Teles de Carvalho, Ricardo

    global environmental health risk, since these sources are important contributors to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the ambient air that increase climate and health risks. This thesis explores the social-technical dimensions of both the use of wood-burning stoves (WBSs) and transition to the use......More than any time in our history, the wood-burning stove continues to be the most popular technology used for cooking and heating worldwide. According to the World Health Organization and recent scientific studies, the inefficient use of solid-fuels in traditional stoves constitutes the major...... systems, improved efficient retrofits and advanced stove innovations. In chapter 3, four popular wood-burning practices found in five countries were singled-out to be examined closely in four case studies: “cooking in Brazil”, “cooking and heating in Peru”, “heating in Portugal” and “recreational heat...

  18. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  19. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  20. Stationary power fuel cell commercialization status worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, M.C. [Dept. of Energy, Morgantown, WV (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Fuel cell technologies for stationary power are set to play a role in power generation applications worldwide. The worldwide fuel cell vision is to provide powerplants for the emerging distributed generation and on-site markets. Progress towards commercialization has occurred in all fuel cell development areas. Around 100 ONSI phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) units have been sold, with significant foreign sales in Europe and Japan. Fuji has apparently overcome its PAFC decay problems. Industry-driven molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC) programs in Japan and the U.S. are conducting megawatt (MW)-class demonstrations, which are bringing the MCFC to the verge of commercialization. Westinghouse Electric, the acknowledged world leader in tubular solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology, continues to set performance records and has completed construction of a 4-MW/year manufacturing facility in the U.S. Fuel cells have also taken a major step forward with the conceptual development of ultra-high efficiency fuel cell/gas turbine plants. Many SOFC developers in Japan, Europe, and North America continue to make significant advances.

  1. Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

  2. Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik Baumann

    Full Text Available Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

  3. Worldwide Research, Worldwide Participation: Web-Based Test Logger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David A.

    1998-01-01

    Thanks to the World Wide Web, a new paradigm has been born. ESCORT (steady state data system) facilities can now be configured to use a Web-based test logger, enabling worldwide participation in tests. NASA Lewis Research Center's new Web-based test logger for ESCORT automatically writes selected test and facility parameters to a browser and allows researchers to insert comments. All data can be viewed in real time via Internet connections, so anyone with a Web browser and the correct URL (universal resource locator, or Web address) can interactively participate. As the test proceeds and ESCORT data are taken, Web browsers connected to the logger are updated automatically. The use of this logger has demonstrated several benefits. First, researchers are free from manual data entry and are able to focus more on the tests. Second, research logs can be printed in report format immediately after (or during) a test. And finally, all test information is readily available to an international public.

  4. The Characteristics of TB Epidemic and TB/HIV Co-Infection Epidemic: A 2007-2013 Retrospective Study in Urumqi, Xinjiang Province, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Wei

    Full Text Available This study was aimed to find out epidemiologic characteristic of tuberculosis (TB cases, and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV positive cases among TB patients (TB/HIV co-infection through demographic, temporal, and spatial study in Urumqi.Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were applied to identify the epidemiologic characteristics and risk factors of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic. All addresses of each TB case, TB/HIV co-infection case, and administrative street were transformed into geographical coordinate. Subsequently, the geocoded address for 82 streets was transformed into a dot map used as the basis of spatial datasets. In addition, the paper also used quantile map and the spatial scan statistic in order to identify the spatial distribution and spatial clusters of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic.There was a declining trend of the notification rates of TB epidemic from 2007 to 2009, as well as a rising trend from 2010 to 2013. However, the notification rates of TB/HIV co-infection epidemic showed a rising trend from 2007 to 2010, and a declining trend from 2011 to 2013. Moreover, a significant share of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic happened between the age of 15 to 45 years old, indicating an increase in risk of TB and TB/HIV infection. It is worth noting that the risk of HIV infection for male TB patients was 2.947 times (95% CI [2.178, 3.988] than that of female patients. Han ethnicity and Uygur ethnicity in urban region accounted for a large proportion of total TB and TB/HIV co-infection cases. Most of the TB cases of minorities in Urumqi showed a statistically significant increase in risk of HIV infection than Han ethnicity in Urumqi. In addition, the spatial distribution of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic was highly skewed. Most of the local clusters were located in urban area and rural-urban continuum where showed an increase in risk of TB and TB

  5. [Current tuberculosis mortality world-wide].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haefliger, E; Rieder, H L

    1992-04-21

    The mortality rate still is an important index for assessment of tuberculosis. Statistical records are kept on the mortality rate on a worldwide basis--more than in the case of other tuberculosis parameters. They allow us to make valuable comparisons. They are also useful because the mortality is closely related to the morbidity. The present thesis is based on comparative figures from the 1989 volume of the WHO Health Statistics Annual. Various countries have been specially selected by the publisher--and subsequently also by us--for sake of clarity. The figures vary strongly within these countries, which was to be expected. The mortality rate varies in Europe (for each 100,000 residents) e.g. from 0.2 in the Netherlands to 8.15 in the Soviet Union. In the Americas the rates vary from 0.4 for Canada to 12.9 for Ecuador. In the Western Pacific region the mortality rates vary from 0.35 for Australia to 14.65 for China. On a worldwide basis, the share of deaths from tuberculosis among all causes of death varies from 0.02% in the Netherlands to 2.10% in the Republic of Korea. The relation of tuberculosis deaths with regard to sexes in Switzerland: 75.7% men, 24.3% women, which is more or less the European average. The lower the mortality rate for tuberculosis are, the lower the difference between the sexes appears to be. Similar facts are found with regard to the distribution of tuberculosis deaths according to age groups: the lower the tuberculosis rate, the more tuberculosis is found in older age groups. The tuberculosis deaths are percentage-wise similarly distributed to the respiratory organs and the other tuberculosis forms.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  6. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  7. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  8. Application of electron accelerator worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Machi, Sueo

    2003-01-01

    Electron accelerator is an important radiation source for radiation technology, which covers broad fields such as industry, health care, food and environmental protection. There are about 1,000 electron accelerators for radiation processing worldwide. Electron accelerator has advantage over Co-60 irradiator in term of high dose rate and power, assurance of safety, and higher economic performance at larger volume of irradiation. Accelerator generating higher energy in the range of 10 MeV and high power electron beam is now commercially available. There is a trend to use high-energy electron accelerator replacing Co-60 in case of large through-put of medical products. Irradiated foods, in particular species, are on the commercial market in 35 countries. Electron accelerator is used efficiently and economically for production of new or modified polymeric materials through radiation-induced cross-linking, grafting and polymerization reaction. Another important application of electron beam is the curing of surface coatings in the manufacture of products. Electron accelerators of large capacity are used for cleaning exhaust gases in industrial scale. Economic feasibility studies of this electron beam process have shown that this technology is more cost effective than the conventional process. It should be noted that the conventional limestone process produce gypsum as a by-product, which cannot be used in some countries. By contrast, the by-product of the electron beam process is a valuable fertilizer. (Y. Tanaka)

  9. Application of electron accelerator worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Machi, Sueo [Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, Inc., Tokyo (Japan)

    2003-02-01

    Electron accelerator is an important radiation source for radiation technology, which covers broad fields such as industry, health care, food and environmental protection. There are about 1,000 electron accelerators for radiation processing worldwide. Electron accelerator has advantage over Co-60 irradiator in term of high dose rate and power, assurance of safety, and higher economic performance at larger volume of irradiation. Accelerator generating higher energy in the range of 10 MeV and high power electron beam is now commercially available. There is a trend to use high-energy electron accelerator replacing Co-60 in case of large through-put of medical products. Irradiated foods, in particular species, are on the commercial market in 35 countries. Electron accelerator is used efficiently and economically for production of new or modified polymeric materials through radiation-induced cross-linking, grafting and polymerization reaction. Another important application of electron beam is the curing of surface coatings in the manufacture of products. Electron accelerators of large capacity are used for cleaning exhaust gases in industrial scale. Economic feasibility studies of this electron beam process have shown that this technology is more cost effective than the conventional process. It should be noted that the conventional limestone process produce gypsum as a by-product, which cannot be used in some countries. By contrast, the by-product of the electron beam process is a valuable fertilizer. (Y. Tanaka)

  10. Euthanasia and related practices worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelleher, M J; Chambers, D; Corcoran, P; Keeley, H S; Williamson, E

    1998-01-01

    The present paper examines the occurrence of matters relating to the ending of life, including active euthanasia, which is, technically speaking, illegal worldwide. Interest in this most controversial area is drawn from many varied sources, from legal and medical practitioners to religious and moral ethicists. In some countries, public interest has been mobilized into organizations that attempt to influence legislation relating to euthanasia. Despite the obvious international importance of euthanasia, very little is known about the extent of its practice, whether passive or active, voluntary or involuntary. This examination is based on questionnaires completed by 49 national representatives of the International Association for Suicide Prevention (IASP), dealing with legal and religious aspects of euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide, as well as suicide. A dichotomy between the law and medical practices relating to the end of life was uncovered by the results of the survey. In 12 of the 49 countries active euthanasia is said to occur while a general acceptance of passive euthanasia was reported to be widespread. Clearly, definition is crucial in making the distinction between active and passive euthanasia; otherwise, the entire concept may become distorted, and legal acceptance may become more widespread with the effect of broadening the category of individuals to whom euthanasia becomes an available option. The "slippery slope" argument is briefly considered.

  11. Worldwide Spacecraft Crew Hatch History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Gary

    2009-01-01

    The JSC Flight Safety Office has developed this compilation of historical information on spacecraft crew hatches to assist the Safety Tech Authority in the evaluation and analysis of worldwide spacecraft crew hatch design and performance. The document is prepared by SAIC s Gary Johnson, former NASA JSC S&MA Associate Director for Technical. Mr. Johnson s previous experience brings expert knowledge to assess the relevancy of data presented. He has experience with six (6) of the NASA spacecraft programs that are covered in this document: Apollo; Skylab; Apollo Soyuz Test Project (ASTP), Space Shuttle, ISS and the Shuttle/Mir Program. Mr. Johnson is also intimately familiar with the JSC Design and Procedures Standard, JPR 8080.5, having been one of its original developers. The observations and findings are presented first by country and organized within each country section by program in chronological order of emergence. A host of reference sources used to augment the personal observations and comments of the author are named within the text and/or listed in the reference section of this document. Careful attention to the selection and inclusion of photos, drawings and diagrams is used to give visual association and clarity to the topic areas examined.

  12. Worldwide status of HTR development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-06-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency convened a technical committee meeting on high temperature reactors (HTRs) from 12-14 Dec. 1977 at Agency Headquarters to provide a forum for the exchange of information on the status of HTR development programmes and to receive advice on the Agency programme in this field. The continuing high level of international interest in HTRs was evidenced by the participation from 11 countries and 2 organizations: Austria, Belgium, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Poland, Switzerland, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, United Kingdom of Great Britain, United States of America, Commission of the European Communities, and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. In order to promote the continuing exchange of technical information through the offices of the IAEA, a recommendation was made that the Agency establish a standing International Working Group on High Temperature Reactors (IWGHTR). This recommendation is being implemented in 1978. Considerable information on recent progress in HTR development was present at the technical committee meeting in technical reports and in progress reports on HTR development programmes. Since this material will not be published, this summary report on the worldwide status of HTR development at the beginning of 1978 has been prepared, based primarily on information presented at the December 1977 meeting

  13. Worldwide potential of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flavin, C

    1982-01-01

    A well-documented discussion is presented dealing with the worldwide potential of wind energy as a source of electrical and mechanical power. It is pointed out that 2% of the solar insolation is converted to wind kinetic energy; it is constantly renewed and nondepletable. Efficiency of windmills are discussed (20 to 40%) and payback periods of less than 5 years are cited. Effects of wind velocity and site location are described. Wind pumps are reviewed and the need for wind pumps, particularly in the developing countries is stressed. The generation of electricity by windmills using small turbines is reviewed and appears promising in areas with wind velocities greater than 12 mi/hr. The development of large windmills and groups of windmills (windfarms) for large scale electrical power is discussed, illustrated, and reviewed (offshore sites included). Environmental and safety problems are considered as well as the role of electrical utilities, government support and research activities. It is concluded that the potential contribution of wind energy is immense and that mechanical windmills may become one of the most important renewable technologies. Electrical generating potential is estimated at 20 to 30% of electrical needs. International programs are discussed briefly. 57 references. (MJJ)

  14. Epidemic spreading on complex networks with overlapping and non-overlapping community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Jiaxing; Liu, Lianchen; Li, Xin; Xie, Feng; Wu, Cheng

    2015-02-01

    Many real-world networks exhibit community structure where vertices belong to one or more communities. Recent studies show that community structure plays an import role in epidemic spreading. In this paper, we investigate how the extent of overlap among communities affects epidemics. In order to experiment on the characteristic of overlapping communities, we propose a rewiring algorithm that can change the community structure from overlapping to non-overlapping while maintaining the degree distribution of the network. We simulate the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic process on synthetic scale-free networks and real-world networks by applying our rewiring algorithm. Experiments show that epidemics spread faster on networks with higher level of overlapping communities. Furthermore, overlapping communities' effect interacts with the average degree's effect. Our work further illustrates the important role of overlapping communities in the process of epidemic spreading.

  15. Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

    2017-10-01

    The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

  16. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The t...

  17. Social networks and spreading of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

    2004-05-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

  18. A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

  19. Effective degree Markov-chain approach for discrete-time epidemic processes on uncorrelated networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Chao-Ran; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Guan, Jian-Yue

    2014-11-01

    Recently, Gómez et al. proposed a microscopic Markov-chain approach (MMCA) [S. Gómez, J. Gómez-Gardeñes, Y. Moreno, and A. Arenas, Phys. Rev. E 84, 036105 (2011)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.84.036105] to the discrete-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic process and found that the epidemic prevalence obtained by this approach agrees well with that by simulations. However, we found that the approach cannot be straightforwardly extended to a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic process (due to its irreversible property), and the epidemic prevalences obtained by MMCA and Monte Carlo simulations do not match well when the infection probability is just slightly above the epidemic threshold. In this contribution we extend the effective degree Markov-chain approach, proposed for analyzing continuous-time epidemic processes [J. Lindquist, J. Ma, P. Driessche, and F. Willeboordse, J. Math. Biol. 62, 143 (2011)JMBLAJ0303-681210.1007/s00285-010-0331-2], to address discrete-time binary-state (SIS) or three-state (SIR) epidemic processes on uncorrelated complex networks. It is shown that the final epidemic size as well as the time series of infected individuals obtained from this approach agree very well with those by Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are robust to the change of different parameters, including the total population size, the infection probability, the recovery probability, the average degree, and the degree distribution of the underlying networks.

  20. Obesity as malnutrition: the role of capitalism in the obesity global epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Jonathan C K

    2012-01-01

    The global obesity epidemic remains poorly understood, partly because it has emerged alongside persisting under-nutrition in many populations. At an abstract level, obesity develops from exposure to the "obesogenic niche," comprising diverse factors predisposing to weight gain. This article first explores how susceptibility to the obesogenic niche is influenced by developmental and life-history experience. Human growth is sensitive to early-life ecological conditions, under the transducing effect of maternal phenotype. Such plasticity is associated with subsequent variability in body composition and metabolism, impacting susceptibility to the obesogenic niche, albeit with heterogeneity across populations. Both nutritional constraint and nutritional excess during early life are associated with variability in relevant molecular pathways. The article then considers the fundamental contribution of capitalist economics to population under-nutrition and over-nutrition. Historically, capitalism contributed to the under-nutrition of many populations through demand for cheap labor. As the limiting factor for economic growth switched to consumption, capitalism has increasingly driven consumer behavior inducing widespread over-nutrition. In populations undergoing nutritional transition, many individuals encounter both under- and over-nutrition within the life course, elevating both susceptibility and exposure to the obesogenic niche. The interactions between global economic forces and nutritional shifts are distributed across generations, and are strongly transduced by maternal effects. The structural connections between undernourished and overnourished worldwide and between under- and over-nutrition within individual life-courses highlight the central role of capitalist economics in the global obesity epidemic. Prevention policies targeting individual behavior have proved ineffective and economic policies are arguably the optimal target for intervention. Copyright © 2012

  1. Searching for the corner seismic moment in worldwide data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felgueiras, Miguel; Santos, Rui; Martins, João Paulo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper the existence of the corner frequency value for the seismic moment distribution is investigated, analysing worldwide data. Pareto based distributions, usually considered as the most suitable to this type of data, are fitted to the most recent data, available in a global earthquake catalog. Despite the undeniable finite nature of the seismic moment data, we conclude that no corner frequency can be established considering the available data set

  2. How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gou

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into account the heterogeneity of degree, our model considers not only the heterogeneity of degree but also the heterogeneity of susceptibility and recovery rates. Then, we analytically study the basic reproductive number and the final epidemic size. Combining with numerical simulations, it is found that the basic reproductive number depends on the mean of distributions of susceptibility and disease course when both of them are independent. If the mean of these two distributions is identical, increasing the variance of susceptibility may block the spread of epidemics, while the corresponding increase in the variance of disease course has little effect on the final epidemic size. It is also shown that positive correlations between individual susceptibility, course of disease and the square of degree make the population more vulnerable to epidemic and avail to the epidemic prevalence, whereas the negative correlations make the population less vulnerable and impede the epidemic prevalence. Keywords: Networks, Heterogeneity, Susceptibility, Recovery rates, Correlation, The basic reproductive number, The final epidemic size

  3. Optimal control of epidemic information dissemination over networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Pin-Yu; Cheng, Shin-Ming; Chen, Kwang-Cheng

    2014-12-01

    Information dissemination control is of crucial importance to facilitate reliable and efficient data delivery, especially in networks consisting of time-varying links or heterogeneous links. Since the abstraction of information dissemination much resembles the spread of epidemics, epidemic models are utilized to characterize the collective dynamics of information dissemination over networks. From a systematic point of view, we aim to explore the optimal control policy for information dissemination given that the control capability is a function of its distribution time, which is a more realistic model in many applications. The main contributions of this paper are to provide an analytically tractable model for information dissemination over networks, to solve the optimal control signal distribution time for minimizing the accumulated network cost via dynamic programming, and to establish a parametric plug-in model for information dissemination control. In particular, we evaluate its performance in mobile and generalized social networks as typical examples.

  4. The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-01-05

    We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary fixed network topology where the n agents, or nodes of the network, have partial information about the epidemic state. The agents react by distancing themselves from their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent\\'s awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time 2-state Markov chains. Through a coupling technique, we establish monotonicity properties between the benchmark and awareness models. Particularly, we show that the expectation of any increasing random variable on the space of sample paths, e.g. eradication time or total infections, is lower for the awareness model. In addition, we give a characterization for this difference of expectations in terms of the coupling distribution. In simulations, we evaluate how different sources of information affect the spread of an epidemic.

  5. Epidemic spreading in weighted networks: an edge-based mean-field solution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zimo; Zhou, Tao

    2012-05-01

    Weight distribution greatly impacts the epidemic spreading taking place on top of networks. This paper presents a study of a susceptible-infected-susceptible model on regular random networks with different kinds of weight distributions. Simulation results show that the more homogeneous weight distribution leads to higher epidemic prevalence, which, unfortunately, could not be captured by the traditional mean-field approximation. This paper gives an edge-based mean-field solution for general weight distribution, which can quantitatively reproduce the simulation results. This method could be applied to characterize the nonequilibrium steady states of dynamical processes on weighted networks.

  6. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  7. Zika virus, vectors, reservoirs, amplifying hosts, and their potential to spread worldwide: what we know and what we should investigate urgently.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorou, Rengina

    2016-07-01

    The widespread epidemic of Zika virus infection in South and Central America and the Caribbean in 2015, along with the increased incidence of microcephaly in fetuses born to mothers infected with Zika virus and the potential for worldwide spread, indicate the need to review the current literature regarding vectors, reservoirs, and amplification hosts. The virus has been isolated in Africa in mosquitoes of the genera Aedes, Anopheles, and Mansonia, and in Southeast Asia and the Pacific area in mosquitoes of the genus Aedes. Aedes albopictus has invaded several countries in Central Africa and all Mediterranean countries, and continues to spread throughout Central and Northern Europe. The wide distribution of the virus in animal hosts and vectors favors the emergence of recombinants. The virus has been isolated in monkeys, and antibodies have been detected in domestic sheep, goats, horses, cows, ducks, rodents, bats, orangutans, and carabaos. It is a public health imperative to define the domestic and wild animal reservoirs, amplification hosts, and vector capacity of the genera Aedes, Anopheles, and Mansonia. These variables will define the geographic distribution of Zika virus along with the indicated timing and scale of the environmental public health interventions worldwide. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Diversity of multilayer networks and its impact on collaborating epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Yong; Hu, Jiaren; Wang, Weihong; Ge, Ying; Chang, Jie; Jin, Xiaogang

    2014-12-01

    Interacting epidemics on diverse multilayer networks are increasingly important in modeling and analyzing the diffusion processes of real complex systems. A viral agent spreading on one layer of a multilayer network can interact with its counterparts by promoting (cooperative interaction), suppressing (competitive interaction), or inducing (collaborating interaction) its diffusion on other layers. Collaborating interaction displays different patterns: (i) random collaboration, where intralayer or interlayer induction has the same probability; (ii) concentrating collaboration, where consecutive intralayer induction is guaranteed with a probability of 1; and (iii) cascading collaboration, where consecutive intralayer induction is banned with a probability of 0. In this paper, we develop a top-bottom framework that uses only two distributions, the overlaid degree distribution and edge-type distribution, to model collaborating epidemics on multilayer networks. We then state the response of three collaborating patterns to structural diversity (evenness and difference of network layers). For viral agents with small transmissibility, we find that random collaboration is more effective in networks with higher diversity (high evenness and difference), while the concentrating pattern is more suitable in uneven networks. Interestingly, the cascading pattern requires a network with moderate difference and high evenness, and the moderately uneven coupling of multiple network layers can effectively increase robustness to resist cascading failure. With large transmissibility, however, we find that all collaborating patterns are more effective in high-diversity networks. Our work provides a systemic analysis of collaborating epidemics on multilayer networks. The results enhance our understanding of biotic and informative diffusion through multiple vectors.

  9. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  10. The changing face of pediatric hypertension in the era of the childhood obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Joseph

    2013-07-01

    Historically, hypertension in childhood was thought to be an uncommon diagnosis, usually related to an underlying condition, most often parenchymal renal disease. Primary hypertension in childhood was felt to be quite rare. However, the worldwide childhood obesity epidemic has had a profound impact on the frequency of hypertension and other obesity-related conditions with the result that primary hypertension should now be viewed as one of the most common health conditions in the young. This review will present updated data on the prevalence of hypertension in children and adolescents, the impact of the childhood obesity epidemic on hypertension prevalence and blood pressure levels, shifts in how often primary hypertension is being diagnosed in childhood, and an overview of the pathophysiology of obesity-related hypertension. It is hoped that improved understanding of the significance of these issues will lead to improved recognition and treatment, which will be the key to averting an epidemic of cardiovascular disease in adulthood.

  11. Advances in apple culture worldwide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terence Robinson

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Over the last 60 years, planting densities for apple have increased as improved management systems have been developed. Dwarfing rootstocks have been the key to the dramatic changes in tree size, spacing and early production. The Malling series of dwarfing rootstocks (M.9 and M.26 have been the most important dwarfing rootstocks in the world but are poorly adapted in some areas of the world and they are susceptible to the bacterial disease fire blight and the soil disease complex, apple replant disease which limits their uses in some areas. Rootstock breeding programs in several parts of the world are developing improved rootstocks with resistance to fire blight, and replant disease, and improved cold hardiness and yield efficiency. A second important trend has been the increasing importance of new cultivars. New cultivars have provided opportunities for higher prices until they are over-produced. A new trend is the "variety club" in which variety owners manage the production and marketing of a new unique cultivar to bring higher prices to the growers and variety owners. This has led to many fruit growers being unable to plant or grow some new cultivars. Important rootstock and cultivar genes have been mapped and can be used in marker assisted selection of future rootstock and cultivar selections. Other important improvements in apple culture include the development of pre-formed trees, the development of minimal pruning strategies and limb angle bending which have also contributed to the dramatic changes in early production in the 2nd-5th years after planting. Studies on light interception and distribution have led to improved tree forms with better fruit quality. Simple pruning strategies and labor positioning platform machines have resulted in partial mechanization of pruning which has reduced management costs. Improved plant growth regulators for thinning and the development of a thinning prediction model based on tree carbohydrate balance

  12. Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Jones

    1985-01-01

    Quaking aspen is the most widely distributed native North American tree species (Little 1971, Sargent 1890). It grows in a great diversity of regions, environments, and communities (Harshberger 1911). Only one deciduous tree species in the world, the closely related Eurasian aspen (Populus tremula), has a wider range (Weigle and Frothingham 1911)....

  13. Yellow fever in the Americas: the growing concern about new epidemics [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeimer Ortiz-Martínez

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Yellow fever (YF is a haemorrhagic viral disease with a high case fatality rate. It is considered a reemerging infectious disease of remarkable importance. During the last outbreaks in Brazil (2016-2017, many cases of YF emerged despite high YF vaccination coverage in some areas. However, there are many areas and populations worldwide where vaccination coverage has been low for years (e.g. Nigeria, which increases the risk of major epidemics in such areas, as would be the case in many of the American territories. Several factors, including the vast border and migratory status of Brazil, the widespread distribution of Aedes mosquitoes and the lack of efficient health policies and surveillance systems, favor this complex epidemiological scenario of reemergence. Therefore, mass vaccination of the population at risk, public health awareness and preparedness are urgently needed in this region. This opinion article describes the current global epidemiological situation of YF, focusing especially on the Americas, as well the risk and vulnerabilities in the region that would be of concern for major expansion to other countries apart from Brazil. Also, imported risk from endemic area outside of Americas (i.e. Africa are of current concern.

  14. Prevalence and distribution of principal periodontal pathogens worldwide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rylev, Mette; Kilian, Mogens

    2008-01-01

    putative periodontal pathogens and particular subsets of these species vary between ethnic groups. Few of these differences can, with the limited information available, be directly related to differences in periodontal disease prevalence. Asian populations are regularly colonized with Actinobacillus...... actinomycetemcomitans serotype c with questionable pathogenic potential. Conversely, the JP2 clone of A. actinomycetemcomitans has enhanced virulence and causes significantly higher prevalence of aggressive periodontitis in adolescents whose descent can be traced back to the Mediterranean and Western parts of Africa....... Some genetically distinct types of Porphyromonas gingivalis are more associated with disease than others, but additional work is required to relate this to clinical differences. CONCLUSIONS: Studies that take into account differences linked to the genetics of both patients and potential pathogens...

  15. Prevalence and distribution of principal periodontal pathogens worldwide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rylev, Mette; Kilian, Mogens

    2008-01-01

    . Some genetically distinct types of Porphyromonas gingivalis are more associated with disease than others, but additional work is required to relate this to clinical differences. CONCLUSIONS: Studies that take into account differences linked to the genetics of both patients and potential pathogens...

  16. Real time bayesian estimation of the epidemic potential of emerging infectious diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís M A Bettencourt

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Fast changes in human demographics worldwide, coupled with increased mobility, and modified land uses make the threat of emerging infectious diseases increasingly important. Currently there is worldwide alert for H5N1 avian influenza becoming as transmissible in humans as seasonal influenza, and potentially causing a pandemic of unprecedented proportions. Here we show how epidemiological surveillance data for emerging infectious diseases can be interpreted in real time to assess changes in transmissibility with quantified uncertainty, and to perform running time predictions of new cases and guide logistics allocations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We develop an extension of standard epidemiological models, appropriate for emerging infectious diseases, that describes the probabilistic progression of case numbers due to the concurrent effects of (incipient human transmission and multiple introductions from a reservoir. The model is cast in terms of surveillance observables and immediately suggests a simple graphical estimation procedure for the effective reproductive number R (mean number of cases generated by an infectious individual of standard epidemics. For emerging infectious diseases, which typically show large relative case number fluctuations over time, we develop a bayesian scheme for real time estimation of the probability distribution of the effective reproduction number and show how to use such inferences to formulate significance tests on future epidemiological observations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Violations of these significance tests define statistical anomalies that may signal changes in the epidemiology of emerging diseases and should trigger further field investigation. We apply the methodology to case data from World Health Organization reports to place bounds on the current transmissibility of H5N1 influenza in humans and establish a statistical basis for monitoring its evolution in real time.

  17. Innovation in Science Education - World-Wide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baez, Albert V.

    The purpose of this book is to promote improvements in science education, world-wide, but particularly in developing countries. It is addressed to those in positions to make effective contributions to the improvement of science education. The world-wide role of science education, the goals of innovative activities, past experience in efforts to…

  18. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  19. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

    2005-02-01

    Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

  1. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  2. Epidemic waves of cholera in the last two decades in Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langa, José Paulo; Sema, Cynthia; De Deus, Nilsa; Colombo, Mauro Maria; Taviani, Elisa

    2015-07-04

    Africa is increasingly affected by cholera. In Mozambique, cholera appeared in the early 1970s when the seventh pandemic entered Africa from the Indian subcontinent. In the following decades, several epidemics were registered in the country, the 1997-1999 epidemic being the most extended. Since then, Mozambique has been considered an endemic area for cholera, characterized by yearly outbreaks occurring with a seasonal pattern. At least three pandemic variants are thought to have originated in the Indian subcontinent and spread worldwide at different times. To understand the epidemiology of cholera in Mozambique, whether the disease re-emerges periodically or is imported by different routes of transmission, we investigated clinical V. cholerae O1 isolated during 1997-1999 and 2012-2014 epidemics. By detecting and characterizing seven genetic elements, the mobilome profile of each isolate was obtained. By comparing it to known seventh pandemic reference strains, it was possible to discern among different V. cholerae O1 variants active in the country. During 1997-1999, epidemic strains showed two different genetic profiles, both related to a pandemic clone that originated from India and was reported in other African countries in the 1990s. Isolates from 2012-2014 outbreaks showed a genetic background related to the pandemic strains currently active as the prevalent causative agent of cholera worldwide. Despite cholera being endemic in Mozambique, the epidemiology of the disease in the past 20 years has been strongly influenced by the cholera seventh pandemic waves that originated in the Indian subcontinent.

  3. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  4. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  5. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  6. Mean-field level analysis of epidemics in directed networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiazeng [School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Liu, Zengrong [Mathematics Department, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China)], E-mail: wangjiazen@yahoo.com.cn, E-mail: zrongliu@online.sh.cn

    2009-09-04

    The susceptible-infected-removed spreading model in a directed graph is studied. The mean-field level rate equations are built with the degree-degree connectivity correlation element and the (in, out)-degree distribution. And the outbreak threshold is obtained analytically-it is determined by the combination of connectivity probability and the degree distribution. Furthermore, the methods of calculating the degree-degree correlations in directed networks are presented. The numerical results of the discrete epidemic processes in networks verify our analyses.

  7. Mean-field level analysis of epidemics in directed networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jiazeng; Liu, Zengrong

    2009-01-01

    The susceptible-infected-removed spreading model in a directed graph is studied. The mean-field level rate equations are built with the degree-degree connectivity correlation element and the (in, out)-degree distribution. And the outbreak threshold is obtained analytically-it is determined by the combination of connectivity probability and the degree distribution. Furthermore, the methods of calculating the degree-degree correlations in directed networks are presented. The numerical results of the discrete epidemic processes in networks verify our analyses.

  8. Cooperative epidemics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimi-Tafreshi, N.

    2016-04-01

    The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer overlapping, but we assume that each layer is random and locally loopless. Infection with one of the diseases increases the probability of getting infected with the other. Using the generating function method, we calculate exactly the fraction of individuals infected with both diseases (so-called coinfected clusters) in the stationary state, as well as the epidemic spreading thresholds and the phase diagram of the model. With increasing cooperation, we observe a tricritical point and the type of transition changes from continuous to hybrid. Finally, we compare the coinfected clusters in the case of cooperating diseases with the so-called "viable" clusters in networks with dependencies.

  9. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  10. Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Da Silva, Renato Aparecido Pimentel; Viana, Matheus Palhares; Da Fontoura Costa, Luciano

    2012-01-01

    Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdös–Rényi (ER), Barabási–Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered. (paper)

  11. Worldwide marine radioactivity studies assessing the picture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Povinec, P.P.; Togawa, O.

    1998-01-01

    A growing number of sources of radioactivity from human activities are found in the marine environment. They are known to include global nuclear fallout following atmospheric weapons tests, the Chernobyl accident, discharges of radionuclides from nuclear installations, past dumping of radioactive wastes, nuclear submarine accidents, contributions from nuclear testing sites, loss of radioactive sources, and the burn-up of satellites using radioisotopes as power sources. Overall, the world's marine environment contains radionuclides that differ from one region to another. Differences are due to dynamic marine environmental processes and the particular source of radionuclides in a region. Scientific assessments of marine radioactivity, therefore, require knowledge of both the source terms and oceanic processes. Radioactivity now is deposited unevenly over the world's oceans. Global fallout is known to be mainly due to nuclear weapon tests carried out in the 1960s. On the other hand, discharges from nuclear fuel reprocessing plants or past dumping of liquid and solid radioactive wastes generally are confined to more localized areas. Even so, soluble radionuclides have been transported over long distances by prevailing ocean currents. To estimate radionuclide inputs from local sources, scientists need to better understand the distribution of radionuclides throughout the world's oceans and seas. The understanding is important for analysing the results from scientific investigations of localized areas, such as part dumping sites, which then can be reviewed more thoroughly. As a contribution to fuller understanding of the marine environment, the IAEA's Marine Environment Laboratory (MEL) started a five-year project in 1996 entitled ''Research on Worldwide Marine Radioactivity (MARS)''. The work is supported by Japan's Science and Technology Agency (STA). This article briefly review this project, and describes related research activities and scientific investigations of MEL

  12. Worldwide trend of atmospheric mercury since 1995

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Slemr

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Concern about the adverse effects of mercury on human health and ecosystems has led to tightening emission controls since the mid 1980s. But the resulting mercury emissions reductions in many parts of the world are believed to be offset or even surpassed by the increasing emissions in rapidly industrializing countries. Consequently, concentrations of atmospheric mercury are expected to remain roughly constant. Here we show that the worldwide atmospheric mercury concentrations have decreased by about 20 to 38 % since 1996 as indicated by long-term monitoring at stations in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres combined with intermittent measurements of latitudinal distribution over the Atlantic Ocean. The total reduction of the atmospheric mercury burden of this magnitude within 14 years is unusually large among most atmospheric trace gases and is at odds with the current mercury emission inventories with nearly constant anthropogenic emissions over this period. This suggests a major shift in the biogeochemical cycle of mercury including oceans and soil reservoirs. Decreasing reemissions from the legacy of historical mercury emissions are the most likely explanation for this decline since the hypothesis of an accelerated oxidation rate of elemental mercury in the atmosphere is not supported by the observed trends of other trace gases. Acidification of oceans, climate change, excess nutrient input and pollution may also contribute by their impact on the biogeochemistry of ocean and soils. Consequently, models of the atmospheric mercury cycle have to include soil and ocean mercury pools and their dynamics to be able to make projections of future trends.

  13. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH), with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values predicted by our simulator match

  14. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martín Gonzalo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH, with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values

  15. Large heterogeneity of the obesity epidemic in Danish adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heitmann, B.L.; Strøger, U.; Mikkelsen, K.L.

    2004-01-01

    group, except for an increasing trend among men aged 50 years and above. CONCLUSION: Although the overall Danish trend for obesity prevalence, similar to trends world-wide, showed a marked increase, the trend was very heterogeneous and generally neither uniform nor significantly positive; the changes......OBJECTIVE: To examine to what extent the obesity epidemic is a general phenomenon in adults by assessing the secular change, by birth cohort and age, in the prevalence of obesity and median body mass index (BMI) in Danish men and women measured between 1964 and 1994. DESIGN: Multiple cross......-sectional population surveys. SETTING: The greater Copenhagen area of Denmark. SUBJECTS: The study included 17,065 men (30 336 observations) and 13,417 women (24,065 observations), aged 20-84 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Trends in median BMI and prevalence of obesity estimated from measured height and weight in 10...

  16. Basic definitions for discrete modeling of computer worms epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Guevara López

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The information technologies have evolved in such a way that communication between computers or hosts has become common, so much that the worldwide organization (governments and corporations depends on it; what could happen if these computers stop working for a long time is catastrophic. Unfortunately, networks are attacked by malware such as viruses and worms that could collapse the system. This has served as motivation for the formal study of computer worms and epidemics to develop strategies for prevention and protection; this is why in this paper, before analyzing epidemiological models, a set of formal definitions based on set theory and functions is proposed for describing 21 concepts used in the study of worms. These definitions provide a basis for future qualitative research on the behavior of computer worms, and quantitative for the study of their epidemiological models.

  17. Zika virus: Endemic and epidemic ranges of Aedes mosquito transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David F. Attaway

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary: As evidence linking Zika virus with serious health complications strengthens, public health officials and clinicians worldwide need to know which locations are likely to be at risk for autochthonous Zika infections. We created risk maps for epidemic and endemic Aedes-borne Zika virus infections globally using a predictive analysis method that draws on temperature, precipitation, elevation, land cover, and population density variables to identify locations suitable for mosquito activity seasonally or year-round. Aedes mosquitoes capable of transmitting Zika and other viruses are likely to live year-round across many tropical areas in the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Our map provides an enhanced global projection of where vector control initiatives may be most valuable for reducing the risk of Zika virus and other Aedes-borne infections. Keywords: Geographic information systems, Geographic information science, Risk mapping, Zika, Aedes modeling

  18. Zika virus: Endemic and epidemic ranges of Aedes mosquito transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attaway, David F; Waters, Nigel M; Geraghty, Estella M; Jacobsen, Kathryn H

    As evidence linking Zika virus with serious health complications strengthens, public health officials and clinicians worldwide need to know which locations are likely to be at risk for autochthonous Zika infections. We created risk maps for epidemic and endemic Aedes-borne Zika virus infections globally using a predictive analysis method that draws on temperature, precipitation, elevation, land cover, and population density variables to identify locations suitable for mosquito activity seasonally or year-round. Aedes mosquitoes capable of transmitting Zika and other viruses are likely to live year-round across many tropical areas in the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Our map provides an enhanced global projection of where vector control initiatives may be most valuable for reducing the risk of Zika virus and other Aedes-borne infections. Copyright © 2016 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

    2009-03-01

    The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

  20. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  1. Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014 [v2; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/5fh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin J. Evans

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a simple linear model. It contains one major parameter - the average infectious period that defines the dynamics of epidemics. Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data collected worldwide. Predictions are provided by considering different scenarios involving the average times of infectiousness for the next few months and the end of the current epidemic is estimated according to each scenario.

  2. Large epidemic thresholds emerge in heterogeneous networks of heterogeneous nodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hui; Tang, Ming; Gross, Thilo

    2015-08-01

    One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been shown that network heterogeneity, i.e. a broad degree distribution, can lower the epidemic threshold at which epidemics can invade the system. Network heterogeneity can thus allow diseases with lower transmission probabilities to persist and spread. However, it has been pointed out that networks in which the properties of nodes are intrinsically heterogeneous can be very resilient to disease spreading. Heterogeneity in structure can enhance or diminish the resilience of networks with heterogeneous nodes, depending on the correlations between the topological and intrinsic properties. Here, we consider a plausible scenario where people have intrinsic differences in susceptibility and adapt their social network structure to the presence of the disease. We show that the resilience of networks with heterogeneous connectivity can surpass those of networks with homogeneous connectivity. For epidemiology, this implies that network heterogeneity should not be studied in isolation, it is instead the heterogeneity of infection risk that determines the likelihood of outbreaks.

  3. Large epidemic thresholds emerge in heterogeneous networks of heterogeneous nodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hui; Tang, Ming; Gross, Thilo

    2015-08-21

    One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been shown that network heterogeneity, i.e. a broad degree distribution, can lower the epidemic threshold at which epidemics can invade the system. Network heterogeneity can thus allow diseases with lower transmission probabilities to persist and spread. However, it has been pointed out that networks in which the properties of nodes are intrinsically heterogeneous can be very resilient to disease spreading. Heterogeneity in structure can enhance or diminish the resilience of networks with heterogeneous nodes, depending on the correlations between the topological and intrinsic properties. Here, we consider a plausible scenario where people have intrinsic differences in susceptibility and adapt their social network structure to the presence of the disease. We show that the resilience of networks with heterogeneous connectivity can surpass those of networks with homogeneous connectivity. For epidemiology, this implies that network heterogeneity should not be studied in isolation, it is instead the heterogeneity of infection risk that determines the likelihood of outbreaks.

  4. Temporal prediction of epidemic patterns in community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent behaviour in one region because of the invasion from an endemic population elsewhere. In this paper we address this issue and study a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemiological model on a network consisting of two communities, where the disease is endemic in one community but alternates between outbreaks and extinctions in the other. We provide a detailed characterization of the temporal dynamics of epidemic patterns in the latter community. In particular, we investigate the time duration of both outbreak and extinction, and the time interval between two consecutive inter-community infections, as well as their frequency distributions. Based on the mean-field theory, we theoretically analyse these three timescales and their dependence on the average node degree of each community, the transmission parameters and the number of inter-community links, which are in good agreement with simulations, except when the probability of overlaps between successive outbreaks is too large. These findings aid us in better understanding the bursty nature of disease spreading in a local community, and thereby suggesting effective time-dependent control strategies. (paper)

  5. Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in west Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Sultan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Every year West African countries within the Sahelo-Sudanian band are afflicted with major meningococcal meningitis (MCM disease outbreaks, which affect up to 200,000 people, mainly young children, in one of the world's poorest regions. The timing of the epidemic year, which starts in February and ends in late May, and the spatial distribution of disease cases throughout the "Meningitis Belt" strongly indicate a close linkage between the life cycle of the causative agent of MCM and climate variability. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly identified. METHODS AND FINDINGS: By comparing the information on cases and deaths of MCM from World Health Organization weekly reports with atmospheric datasets, we quantified the relationship between the seasonal occurrence of MCM in Mali, a West African country, and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Regional atmospheric indexes based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and climate: the onset of epidemics and the winter maximum defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean week (sixth week of the year; standard deviation, 2 wk and are highly correlated. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first that provides a clear, quantitative demonstration of the connections that exist between MCM epidemics and regional climate variability in Africa. Moreover, this statistically robust explanation of the MCM dynamics enables the development of an Early Warning Index for meningitis epidemic onset in West Africa. The development of such an index will undoubtedly help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control MCM disease within the so-called westward-eastward pan-African Meningitis Belt.

  6. Sensitivity analysis of an individual-based model for simulation of influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine O Nsoesie

    Full Text Available Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes to these parameters (in addition to the transmissibility would be useful for future studies and real-time modeling during an influenza pandemic.In this study, we examined individual and joint effects of parameters and ranked parameters based on their influence on the dynamics of simulated epidemics. We also compared the sensitivity of the model across synthetic social networks for Montgomery County in Virginia and New York City (and surrounding metropolitan regions with demographic and rural-urban differences. In addition, we studied the effects of changing the mean infectious period on age-specific epidemics. The research was performed from a public health standpoint using three relevant measures: time to peak, peak infected proportion and total attack rate. We also used statistical methods in the design and analysis of the experiments. The results showed that: (i minute changes in the transmissibility and mean infectious period significantly influenced the attack rate; (ii the mean of the incubation period distribution appeared to be sufficient for determining its effects on the dynamics of epidemics; (iii the infectious period distribution had the strongest influence on the structure of the epidemic curves; (iv the sensitivity of the individual-based model was consistent across social networks investigated in this study and (v age-specific epidemics were sensitive to changes in the mean infectious period irrespective of the susceptibility of the other age groups. These findings suggest that small changes in some of the disease model parameters can significantly influence the uncertainty

  7. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  8. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  9. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  10. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  11. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  12. HIV epidemic appraisals for assisting in the design of effective prevention programmes: shifting the paradigm back to basics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharmistha Mishra

    Full Text Available To design HIV prevention programmes, it is critical to understand the temporal and geographic aspects of the local epidemic and to address the key behaviours that drive HIV transmission. Two methods have been developed to appraise HIV epidemics and guide prevention strategies. The numerical proxy method classifies epidemics based on current HIV prevalence thresholds. The Modes of Transmission (MOT model estimates the distribution of incidence over one year among risk-groups. Both methods focus on the current state of an epidemic and provide short-term metrics which may not capture the epidemiologic drivers. Through a detailed analysis of country and sub-national data, we explore the limitations of the two traditional methods and propose an alternative approach.We compared outputs of the traditional methods in five countries for which results were published, and applied the numeric and MOT model to India and six districts within India. We discovered three limitations of the current methods for epidemic appraisal: (1 their results failed to identify the key behaviours that drive the epidemic; (2 they were difficult to apply to local epidemics with heterogeneity across district-level administrative units; and (3 the MOT model was highly sensitive to input parameters, many of which required extraction from non-regional sources. We developed an alternative decision-tree framework for HIV epidemic appraisals, based on a qualitative understanding of epidemiologic drivers, and demonstrated its applicability in India. The alternative framework offered a logical algorithm to characterize epidemics; it required minimal but key data.Traditional appraisals that utilize the distribution of prevalent and incident HIV infections in the short-term could misguide prevention priorities and potentially impede efforts to halt the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. An approach that characterizes local transmission dynamics provides a potentially more effective tool with

  13. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  14. Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

  15. NPP Tropical Forest: Consistent Worldwide Site Estimates, 1967-1999, R1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains documented field measurements of NPP components for 39 old-growth tropical forests distributed worldwide between latitudes 23.58 N and 23.58...

  16. Effects of contact network structure on epidemic transmission trees: implications for data required to estimate network structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

    2018-01-30

    Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is key to developing effective interventions to control or prevent an epidemic. The structure of the network of contacts over which the disease spreads has been shown to have a strong influence on the outcome of the epidemic, but an open question remains as to whether it is possible to estimate contact network features from data collected in an epidemic. The approach taken in this paper is to examine the distributions of epidemic outcomes arising from epidemics on networks with particular structural features to assess whether that structure could be measured from epidemic data and what other constraints might be needed to make the problem identifiable. To this end, we vary the network size, mean degree, and transmissibility of the pathogen, as well as the network feature of interest: clustering, degree assortativity, or attribute-based preferential mixing. We record several standard measures of the size and spread of the epidemic, as well as measures that describe the shape of the transmission tree in order to ascertain whether there are detectable signals in the final data from the outbreak. The results suggest that there is potential to estimate contact network features from transmission trees or pure epidemic data, particularly for diseases with high transmissibility or for which the relevant contact network is of low mean degree. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Foreshock occurrence rates before large earthquakes worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.

  18. 1991 worldwide refining and gas processing directory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    This book ia an authority for immediate information on the industry. You can use it to find new business, analyze market trends, and to stay in touch with existing contacts while making new ones. The possibilities for business applications are numerous. Arranged by country, all listings in the directory include address, phone, fax and telex numbers, a description of the company's activities, names of key personnel and their titles, corporate headquarters, branch offices and plant sites. This newly revised edition lists more than 2000 companies and nearly 3000 branch offices and plant locations. This east-to-use reference also includes several of the most vital and informative surveys of the industry, including the U.S. Refining Survey, the Worldwide Construction Survey in Refining, Sulfur, Gas Processing and Related Fuels, the Worldwide Refining and Gas Processing Survey, the Worldwide Catalyst Report, and the U.S. and Canadian Lube and Wax Capacities Report from the National Petroleum Refiner's Association

  19. Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christakos, G.; Olea, R.A.; Yu, H.-L.

    2007-01-01

    Background: This work demonstrates the importance of spatiotemporal stochastic modelling in constructing maps of major epidemics from fragmentary information, assessing population impacts, searching for possible etiologies, and performing comparative analysis of epidemics. Methods: Based on the theory previously published by the authors and incorporating new knowledge bases, informative maps of the composite space-time distributions were generated for important characteristics of two major epidemics: Black Death (14th century Western Europe) and bubonic plague (19th-20th century Indian subcontinent). Results: The comparative spatiotemporal analysis of the epidemics led to a number of interesting findings: (1) the two epidemics exhibited certain differences in their spatiotemporal characteristics (correlation structures, trends, occurrence patterns and propagation speeds) that need to be explained by means of an interdisciplinary effort; (2) geographical epidemic indicators confirmed in a rigorous quantitative manner the partial findings of isolated reports and time series that Black Death mortality was two orders of magnitude higher than that of bubonic plague; (3) modern bubonic plague is a rural disease hitting harder the small villages in the countryside whereas Black Death was a devastating epidemic that indiscriminately attacked large urban centres and the countryside, and while the epidemic in India lasted uninterruptedly for five decades, in Western Europe it lasted three and a half years; (4) the epidemics had reverse areal extension features in response to annual seasonal variations. Temperature increase at the end of winter led to an expansion of infected geographical area for Black Death and a reduction for bubonic plague, reaching a climax at the end of spring when the infected area in Western Europe was always larger than in India. Conversely, without exception, the infected area during winter was larger for the Indian bubonic plague; (5) during the

  20. Mean field theory of epidemic spreading with effective contacts on networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

    2015-01-01

    We present a general approach to the analysis of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model with effective contacts on networks, where each susceptible node will be infected with a certain probability only for effective contacts. In the network, each node has a given effective contact number. By using the one-vertex heterogenous mean-field (HMF) approximation and the pair HMF approximation, we obtain conditions for epidemic outbreak on degree-uncorrelated networks. Our results suggest that the epidemic threshold is closely related to the effective contact and its distribution. However, when the effective contact is only dependent of node degree, the epidemic threshold can be established by the degree distribution of networks.

  1. Estimating epidemic arrival times using linear spreading theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lawrence M.; Holzer, Matt; Shapiro, Anne

    2018-01-01

    We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is composed of a system of ordinary differential equations describing a meta-population susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental model defined on a network where each node represents a city and the edges represent the flight paths connecting cities. Making use of the linear determinacy of the system, we consider spreading speeds and arrival times in the system linearized about the unstable disease free state and compare these to arrival times in the nonlinear system. Two predictions are presented. The first is based upon expansion of the heat kernel for the linearized system. The second assumes that the dominant transmission pathway between any two cities can be approximated by a one dimensional lattice or a homogeneous tree and gives a uniform prediction for arrival times independent of the specific network features. We test these predictions on a real network describing worldwide airline traffic.

  2. FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

    2012-10-04

    The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size

  3. Epidemias em escala mundial e no Brasil Epidemics on a global scale and in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José da Rocha Carvalheiro

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Epidemias devem ser consideradas não como um tipo especial de doença, mas sim como parte de um complexo processo de distribuição de patologias no tempo e no espaço. Diversas classificações de doenças existem, sendo oficial a CID atualmente em sua décima versão. As cartas de controle, empregadas pelo serviço de saúde, permitem uma aproximação à fase, endêmica ou epidêmica, em que se encontram especialmente doenças sujeitas a vigilância em todo o mundo, as quarentenáveis. O conceito de surto deve ser encarado como um indício de concentração de episódios que merece estudo mais profundo. As mais importantes doenças transmissíveis no mundo em desenvolvimento são chamadas negligenciadas e merecem atenção especial das agências de fomento de pesquisa por não serem tidas como prioritárias pela indústria farmacêutica. No Brasil, a Agenda de Prioridades de Pesquisa em Saúde inclui diversas doenças dessa natureza e tem sido contempladas em editais do CNPq e do Ministério da Saúde.Epidemics must not be seen as a special kind of disease but as part of a complex process of distribution of pathologies over time and space. Among the different existing disease classifications, the ICD, currently in its 10th edition, is the official one. The control charts being employed by the health system allow estimating the stage of development, endemic or epidemic, of diseases, especially those subject to worldwide control, the quarantinable diseases. The concept outbreak should be understood as a signal for the concentration of episodes worth being studied in depth. The most important communicable diseases in the developing world, the so-called neglected diseases, deserve special attention from the research funding agencies for not ranging among the priorities of the pharmaceutical industry. In Brazil, the agenda of priorities in health research includes various diseases of this nature, which have been contemplated in calls for projects

  4. A network-based meta-population approach to model Rift Valley fever epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Ling; Scott, H Morgan; Cohnstaedt, Lee W; Scoglio, Caterina

    2012-08-07

    Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has been expanding its geographical distribution with important implications for both human and animal health. The emergence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Middle East, and its continuing presence in many areas of Africa, has negatively impacted both medical and veterinary infrastructures and human morbidity, mortality, and economic endpoints. Furthermore, worldwide attention should be directed towards the broader infection dynamics of RVFV, because suitable host, vector and environmental conditions for additional epidemics likely exist on other continents; including Asia, Europe and the Americas. We propose a new compartmentalized model of RVF and the related ordinary differential equations to assess disease spread in both time and space; with the latter driven as a function of contact networks. Humans and livestock hosts and two species of vector mosquitoes are included in the model. The model is based on weighted contact networks, where nodes of the networks represent geographical regions and the weights represent the level of contact between regional pairings for each set of species. The inclusion of human, animal, and vector movements among regions is new to RVF modeling. The movement of the infected individuals is not only treated as a possibility, but also an actuality that can be incorporated into the model. We have tested, calibrated, and evaluated the model using data from the recent 2010 RVF outbreak in South Africa as a case study; mapping the epidemic spread within and among three South African provinces. An extensive set of simulation results shows the potential of the proposed approach for accurately modeling the RVF spreading process in additional regions of the world. The benefits of the proposed model are twofold: not only can the model differentiate the maximum number of infected individuals among different provinces, but also it can reproduce the different starting times of the outbreak in multiple locations

  5. Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

  6. WorldWide Web: Hypertext from CERN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickerson, Gord

    1992-01-01

    Discussion of software tools for accessing information on the Internet focuses on the WorldWideWeb (WWW) system, which was developed at the European Particle Physics Laboratory (CERN) in Switzerland to build a worldwide network of hypertext links using available networking technology. Its potential for use with multimedia documents is also…

  7. Youth Purpose Worldwide: A Tapestry of Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Seana

    2017-01-01

    Interest in youth purpose is growing among scholars around the world. With globalization, better understanding of life purposes in different countries becomes more important as this generation's youth are influenced by ideas and events anywhere. This special issue contributes to this inclusive, worldwide frame of mind by showcasing work done…

  8. Globalization of flora: inviting worldwide ecosystem disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew B. Carey

    2002-01-01

    Meeting the needs of expanding human populations has changed land use worldwide and presented a biodiversity crisis. Emerging related concerns are threats to native species from homogenization of world flora and the spread of exotic species by human activities (Soule 1990, United States Congress, Office of Technology Assessment 1993, Wilcove and others 1998, Soule and...

  9. World-Wide Web: The Information Universe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berners-Lee, Tim; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Describes the World-Wide Web (W3) project, which is designed to create a global information universe using techniques of hypertext, information retrieval, and wide area networking. Discussion covers the W3 data model, W3 architecture, the document naming scheme, protocols, document formats, comparison with other systems, experience with the W3…

  10. STREPTOCOCCUS: A WORLDWIDE FISH HEALTH PROBLEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streptococcus iniae and S. agalactiae are important emergent pathogens that affect many fish species worldwide, especially in warm-water regions. In marine and freshwater systems, these Gram-positive bacteria cause significant economic losses, estimated at hundreds of millions of dollars annually. ...

  11. RoboEarth: connecting robots worldwide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zweigle, O.; Molengraft, van de M.J.G.; D'Andrea, R.; Häussermann, K.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present the core concept and the benefits of an approach called RoboEarth which will be highly beneficial for future robotic applications in science and industry. RoboEarth is a world-wide platform which robots can use to exchange position and map information as well as

  12. Modelling control of epidemics spreading by long-range interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dybiec, Bartłomiej; Kleczkowski, Adam; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2009-10-06

    We have studied the spread of epidemics characterized by a mixture of local and non-local interactions. The infection spreads on a two-dimensional lattice with the fixed nearest neighbour connections. In addition, long-range dynamical links are formed by moving agents (vectors). Vectors perform random walks, with step length distributed according to a thick-tail distribution. Two distributions are considered in this paper, an alpha-stable distribution describing self-similar vector movement, yet characterized by an infinite variance and an exponential power characterized by a large but finite variance. Such long-range interactions are hard to track and make control of epidemics very difficult. We also allowed for cryptic infection, whereby an infected individual on the lattice can be infectious prior to showing any symptoms of infection or disease. To account for such cryptic spread, we considered a control strategy in which not only detected, i.e. symptomatic, individuals but also all individuals within a certain control neighbourhood are treated upon the detection of disease. We show that it is possible to eradicate the disease by using such purely local control measures, even in the presence of long-range jumps. In particular, we show that the success of local control and the choice of the optimal strategy depend in a non-trivial way on the dispersal patterns of the vectors. By characterizing these patterns using the stability index of the alpha-stable distribution to change the power-law behaviour or the exponent characterizing the decay of an exponential power distribution, we show that infection can be successfully contained using relatively small control neighbourhoods for two limiting cases for long-distance dispersal and for vectors that are much more limited in their dispersal range.

  13. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  14. Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

  15. Status of research reactor spent fuel world-wide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritchie, I.G.

    2004-01-01

    Results compiled in the research reactor spent fuel database are used to assess the status of research reactor spent fuel world-wide. Fuel assemblies, their types, enrichment, origin of enrichment and geological distribution among the industrialised and developed countries of the world are discussed. Fuel management practices in wet and dry storage facilities and the concerns of reactor operators about long-term storage of their spent fuel are presented and some of the activities carried out by the International Atomic Energy Agency to address the issues associated with research reactor spent fuel are outlined. (author)

  16. Gene therapy clinical trials worldwide to 2017: An update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginn, Samantha L; Amaya, Anais K; Alexander, Ian E; Edelstein, Michael; Abedi, Mohammad R

    2018-03-25

    To date, almost 2600 gene therapy clinical trials have been completed, are ongoing or have been approved worldwide. Our database brings together global information on gene therapy clinical activity from trial databases, official agency sources, published literature, conference presentations and posters kindly provided to us by individual investigators or trial sponsors. This review presents our analysis of clinical trials that, to the best of our knowledge, have been or are being performed worldwide. As of our November 2017 update, we have entries on 2597 trials undertaken in 38 countries. We have analysed the geographical distribution of trials, the disease indications (or other reasons) for trials, the proportions to which different vector types are used, and the genes that have been transferred. Details of the analyses presented, and our searchable database are available via The Journal of Gene Medicine Gene Therapy Clinical Trials Worldwide website at: http://www.wiley.co.uk/genmed/clinical. We also provide an overview of the progress being made in gene therapy clinical trials around the world, and discuss key trends since the previous review, namely the use of chimeric antigen receptor T cells for the treatment of cancer and advancements in genome editing technologies, which have the potential to transform the field moving forward. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Permanence for a Delayed Nonautonomous SIR Epidemic Model with Density-Dependent Birth Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Yingke

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on some well-known SIR models, a revised nonautonomous SIR epidemic model with distributed delay and density-dependent birth rate was considered. Applying some classical analysis techniques for ordinary differential equations and the method proposed by Wang (2002, the threshold value for the permanence and extinction of the model was obtained.

  18. Prediction of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in western Africa by using climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    YAKA, D. P.; Sultan, B.; Tarbangdo, F.; Thiaw, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    The variations of certain climatic parameters and the degradation of ecosystems, can affect human's health by influencing the transmission, the spatiotemporal repartition and the intensity of infectious diseases. It is mainly the case of meningococcal meningitis (MCM) whose epidemics occur particularly in Sahelo-Soudanian climatic area of Western Africa under quite particular climatic conditions. Meningococcal Meningitis (MCM) is a contagious infection disease due to the bacteria Neisseria meningitis. MCM epidemics occur worldwide but the highest incidence is observed in the "meningitis belt" of sub-Saharan Africa, stretching from Senegal to Ethiopia. In spite of standards, strategies of prevention and control of MCS epidemic from World Health Organization (WHO) and States, African Sahelo-Soudanian countries remain frequently afflicted by disastrous epidemics. In fact, each year, during the dry season (February-April), 25 to 250 thousands of cases are observed. Children under 15 are particularly affected. Among favourable conditions for the resurgence and dispersion of the disease, climatic conditions may be important inducing seasonal fluctuations in disease incidence and contributing to explain the spatial pattern of the disease roughly circumscribed to the ecological Sahelo-Sudanian band. In this study, we tried to analyse the relationships between climatic factors, ecosystems degradation and MCM for a better understanding of MCM epidemic dynamic and their prediction. We have shown that MCM epidemics, whether at the regional, national or local level, occur in a specific period of the year, mainly from January to May characterised by a dry, hot and sandy weather. We have identified both in situ (meteorological synoptic stations) and satellitales climatic variables (NCEP reanalysis dataset) whose seasonal variability is dominating in MCM seasonal transmission. Statistical analysis have measured the links between seasonal variation of certain climatic parameters

  19. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  20. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  1. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  2. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-06-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  3. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  4. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  5. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-01-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

  6. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  7. Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia

    2011-09-01

    In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of

  8. Worldwide review of nuclear power developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rippon, Simon.

    1985-01-01

    In the Western world during 1984, some 26 new reactors with a total capacity of about 26 GWe were commissioned. This review discusses political and economic factors affecting nuclear power worldwide. Developments, or the lack of them, in the following areas are considered: U.S.A., Japan, Western Europe, Turkey, South East Asia, China, India, South and Central America and Eastern Europe. China is predicted to be the next big market

  9. CMS Centres Worldwide - a New Collaborative Infrastructure

    CERN Document Server

    Taylor, Lucas

    2011-01-01

    Webcasts, and generic Web tools such as CMS-TV for broadcasting live monitoring and outreach information. Being Web-based and experiment-independent, these systems could easily be extended to other organizations. We describe the experiences of using CMS Centres Worldwide in the CMS data-taking operations as well as for major media events with several hundred TV channels, radio stations, and many more press journalists simultaneously around the world.

  10. Worldwide Report, Nuclear Development and Proliferation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-07-09

    ACTIVITIES AT KIEV VEGETABLE MARKET Moscow SOVETSKAYA ROSSIYA in Russian 16 May 86 p 6 PARTY COMMITrEE ACTIVITIES AT C(1ERNOBYL Moscow PRAVDA in...Agreement (Martin F. Yriart; Buenos Aires AMBITO FINANCIERO , 12 May 86) 22 NEAR EAST/SOUTH ASIA BANGLADESH OBSERVER: Nuclear Technology Growth Playing...University physicists. Scanditronix began to market the product in earnest worldwide in the mid- seventies. At the same time, anxiety was growing within FOA

  11. Selection signatures in worldwide sheep populations.

    OpenAIRE

    Fariello, Maria-Ines; Servin, Bertrand; Tosser-Klopp, Gwenola; Rupp, Rachel; Moreno, Carole; San Cristobal, Magali; Boitard, Simon; Drögemüller, Cord; The International Sheep Genomics Consortium, ISGC

    2014-01-01

    The diversity of populations in domestic species offers great opportunities to study genome response to selection. The recently published Sheep HapMap dataset is a great example of characterization of the world wide genetic diversity in sheep. In this study, we re-analyzed the Sheep HapMap dataset to identify selection signatures in worldwide sheep populations. Compared to previous analyses, we made use of statistical methods that (i) take account of the hierarchical structure of sheep popula...

  12. Selection Signatures in Worldwide Sheep Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Fariello, Maria-Ines; Servin, Bertrand; Tosser-Klopp, Gwenola; Rupp, Rachel; Moreno, Carole; Cristobal, Magali San; Boitard, Simon

    2014-01-01

    The diversity of populations in domestic species offers great opportunities to study genome response to selection. The recently published Sheep HapMap dataset is a great example of characterization of the world wide genetic diversity in sheep. In this study, we re-analyzed the Sheep HapMap dataset to identify selection signatures in worldwide sheep populations. Compared to previous analyses, we made use of statistical methods that (i) take account of the hierarchical structure of sheep popula...

  13. 1996 Portfolio of leading powerplants worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    This report covers activity in the electric power industry worldwide. The report is divided into three sections: Asia; Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and the Americas. The topics of the articles include major expansion programs for the primary power generating options, selected plant profiles; effect of the availability of natural gas on plans for coal-fired plants; and the pioneering of technologies in North America

  14. The software development process in worldwide collaborations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amako, K.

    1998-01-01

    High energy physics experiments in future colliders are inevitably large scale international collaborations. In these experiments, software development has to be done by a large number of physicists, software engineers and computer scientists, dispersed all over the world. The major subject of this paper is to discuss on various aspects of software development in the worldwide environment. These include software engineering and methodology, software development process and management. (orig.)

  15. The threshold of a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fengrong; Zhang, Xinhong

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect in human population and saturation effect within avian population is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among avian population and human population in random environments. For stochastic avian-only system, persistence in the mean and extinction of the infected avian population are studied. For the avian-human influenza epidemic system, sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution are obtained. Furthermore, a threshold of this stochastic model which determines the outcome of the disease is obtained. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

  16. Neurocysticercosis as an infectious acquired epilepsy worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Doodipala Samba; Volkmer, Randy

    2017-11-01

    Aside from brain injury and genetic causes, there is emerging information on brain infection and inflammation as a common cause of epilepsy. Neurocysticercosis (NCC), the most common cause of epilepsy worldwide, is caused by brain cysts from the Taenia solium tapeworm. In this article, we provide a critical analysis of current and emerging information on the relationship between NCC infection and epilepsy occurrence. We searched PubMed and other databases for reports on the prevalence of NCC and incidence of epilepsy in certain regions worldwide. NCC is caused by brain cysts from the T. solium and related tapeworms. Many people with NCC infection may develop epilepsy but the rates are highly variable. MRI imaging shows many changes including localization of cysts as well as the host response to treatment. Epilepsy, in a subset of NCC patients, appears to be due to hippocampal sclerosis. Serologic and brain imaging profiles are likely diagnostic biomarkers of NCC infection and are also used to monitor the course of treatments. Limited access to these tools is a key limitation to identify and treat NCC-related epilepsy in places with high prevalence of this parasite infestation. Overall, NCC is a common infection in many patients with epilepsy worldwide. Additional clinical and animal studies could confirm common pathology of NCC as a postinfectious epilepsy that is curable. Copyright © 2017 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Temperature profile and other data collected using bottle and CTD casts from the GASCOYNE and other platforms from a world-wide distribution during the California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation (CALCOFI) project, 14 November 1916 to 27 December 1961 (NODC Accession 6100000)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic Station Data and temperature, depth, and other data were collected using CTD and bottle casts from GASCOYNE and other platforms in a world-wide...

  18. [MANIFESTATIONS OF EPIDEMIC PROCESS AND TRANSMISSION ROUTES OF CAUSATIVE AGENT OF ENTEROVIRUS SEROUS MENINGITIS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergevnin, V I; Tryasolobova, M A; Kudrevatykh, E V; Kuzovnikova, E Zh

    2015-01-01

    Study the manifestations of epidemic process and leading transmission routes of causative agents of enterovirus serous meningitis (SM) by results of laboratory studies and epidemiologic examination of epidemic nidi. During 2010 - 2014 a study for enterovirus was carried out in cerebrospinal fluid in 743 patients, hospitalized into medical organizations of Perm with primary diagnosis "serous meningitis", feces of 426 individuals, that had communicated with patients with SM of enterovirus etiology; 827 water samples from the distribution network, 295 water samples from open water and 57 washes from surface of vegetables and fruits. All the samples were studied in polymerase chain reaction, part--by a virological method. Epidemiologic examination of 350 epidemic nidi of SM was carried out. Enterovirus and (or) its RNA were detected in 62.0% of patients and 61.9% of individuals that had communicated with patients with enteroviris SM. ECHO 6 serotype enterovirus dominated among the causative agents. Maximum intensity of epidemic process of enterovirus SM, based on data from laboratory examination of patients, was detected in a group of organized pre-school and school age children during summer-autumn period. . Examination of epidemic nidi and laboratory control of environmental objects have shown that CV causative agent transmission factors are, in particular, unboiled water from decentralized sources (boreholes, wells, springs), water from open waters during bathing, as well as fresh vegetables, fruits, berries and meals produced from them. .

  19. Environmental heterogeneity and variations in the velocity of bluetongue virus spread in six European epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, Gaëlle; Tisseuil, Clément; Conte, Annamaria; Allepuz, Alberto; Pioz, Maryline; Lancelot, Renaud; Gilbert, Marius

    2018-01-01

    Several epidemics caused by different bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes occurred in European ruminants since the early 2000. Studies on the spatial distribution of these vector-borne infections and the main vector species highlighted contrasted eco-climatic regions characterized by different dominant vector species. However, little work was done regarding the factors associated with the velocity of these epidemics. In this study, we aimed to quantify and compare the velocity of BTV epidemic that have affected different European countries under contrasted eco-climatic conditions and to relate these estimates to spatial factors such as temperature and host density. We used the thin plate spline regression interpolation method in combination with trend surface analysis to quantify the local velocity of different epidemics that have affected France (BTV-8 2007-2008, BTV-1 2008-2009), Italy (BTV-1 2014), Andalusia in Spain (BTV-1 2007) and the Balkans (BTV-4 2014). We found significant differences in the local velocity of BTV spread according to the country and epidemics, ranging from 7.9km/week (BTV-1 2014 Italy) to 24.4km/week (BTV-1 2008 France). We quantify and discuss the effect of temperature and local host density on this velocity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Lowe

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain–Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide.

  1. The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Barcellos, Christovam; Brasil, Patrícia; Cruz, Oswaldo G; Honório, Nildimar Alves; Kuper, Hannah; Carvalho, Marilia Sá

    2018-01-09

    The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide.

  2. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

  3. Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, Anne Margrethe; Cowan, Susan A; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND:: In Denmark 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behaviour for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns...

  4. CDC Vital Signs: Today's Heroin Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the MMWR Science Clips Today’s Heroin Epidemic More people at risk, multiple drugs abused Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This Page Overview Problem Infographics What Can Be Done Issue Details Overview Heroin use has increased across the US among men and ...

  5. The Prescription Opioid Pain Medication Overdose Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-04-19

    Overdose related to prescription opioids has become an epidemic. This podcast discusses the risks of this type of drug sometimes used to treat pain, and how to protect yourself. .  Created: 4/19/2016 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 4/19/2016.

  6. Alternative risk financing instruments for swine epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2003-01-01

    Swine epidemics can have very large devastating financial consequences. Governments generally bear the direct losses, such as the value of destroyed animals. Consequential losses, such as the losses resulting from empty buildings and movement standstills, are completely borne by the farmers (and

  7. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  8. [Notes about other epidemics in Colonial Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laval, Enrique

    2015-10-01

    In chronicles or in the historiography of the Colony in Chile there are few references about epidemics different to smallpox; like typhus, typhoid fever, dysentery, etc. Almost all, fast spreading in the country and some with high lethality, which led to overflowing the capacity of hospitals in the Chilean colonial period.

  9. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  10. Cholera Epidemic Control | Zachariah | Malawi Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malawi Medical Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 13, No 1 (2001) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Cholera Epidemic Control. R Zachariah. Full Text: EMAIL FREE ...

  11. Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJzermans, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

  12. Worldwide perspectives of nuclear power use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gueldner, R.

    2007-01-01

    The article covers the topic of nuclear power from the point of view of a representative of the World Nuclear Association (WNA). It is to address not only global trends, but also to provide an opportunity to describe his impressions to a German whose main job is with an international company in Paris, and whose WNA desk is set up in London. In retrospect, there had hardly been a time when nuclear power was held in the same high regard, internationally, as it is now. In the most recent World Climate Report, which is always the result of international consensus, nuclear power is referred to as one of the currently available, economically viable key technologies in the fight against climate change. Worldwide, roughly half the electricity generated practically without any CO 2 emissions is produced in nuclear power plants. Moreover, it is not only climate protection which gives a boost to nuclear power. Also the threats facing important sources of fossil fuel supply have greatly contributed to this development. As regards the use of nuclear power in Germany, the facts are known: Longer periods of operation of nuclear power plants could save a lot of money and even more CO 2 . This is good for the environment, the economy and, ultimately, for the population in Germany. Competence preservation is an important topic in our industry. We are on the right way, worldwide, in this respect. One example to be mentioned is the common initiative of international organizations, co-initiated especially also by WNA, to establish the World Nuclear University. This institution is in the process of becoming a wellspring of talent specializing in nuclear technology worldwide. (orig.)

  13. A worldwide perspective on actinide burning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burch, W.D.

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide interest has been evident over the past few years in reexamining the merits of recovering the actinides from spent light-water reactor (LWR) fuel and transmuting them in fast reactors to reduce hazards in geologic repositories. This paper will summarize some of the recent activities in this field. Several countries are embarked on programs of reprocessing and vitrification of present wastes, from which removal of the actinides is largely precluded. The United States is assessing the ideas related to the fast reactor program and the potential application to defense wastes. 18 refs., 2 figs

  14. Worldwide deposition of 90Sr through 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, R.J.; Juzdan, Z.R.

    1986-10-01

    The deposition of 90 Sr in the Northern Hemisphere during 1984 was 0.3 PBq (0.008 MCi), while that of the Southern Hemisphere was 0.1 PBq (0.003 MCi). This resulted in a total deposition on the surface of the earth during 1984 of 0.4 PBq (0.011 MCi). This is the lowest total yearly deposit since the initiation of the Environmental Measurements Laboratory's global fallout program in the mid-1950's. The worldwide cumulative deposit decreased to 357 PBq (9.6 MCi)

  15. Reviss to market Russian isotopes worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latham, I.A.

    1992-01-01

    The culmination of two years of detailed negotiations saw the formation of Reviss Services in April 1992. This joint venture company is a collaboration between Amersham International (Health Science Group), the Mayak Production Association (manufacturer of radioisotopes) and AO Techsnabexport (the Russian export agency). It is set up to enable a variety of Russian-manufactured radioisotopes to be marketed worldwide. Formation of the joint venture company was made possible by the recent political changes in the former Soviet Union, allowing the three parties to extend their long-standing commercial trading relationship into a full working partnership. (Author)

  16. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  17. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  18. Epidemic of cell phone virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pu; González, Marta; Barabási, Albert-László.

    2008-03-01

    Standard operating systems and Bluetooth technology will be a trend for future cell phone features. These will enable cell phone viruses to spread either through SMS or by sending Bluetooth requests when cell phones are physically close enough. The difference in spreading methods gives these two types of viruses' different epidemiological characteristics. SMS viruses' spread is mainly based on people's social connections, whereas the spreading of Bluetooth viruses is affected by people's mobility patterns and population distribution. Using cell phone data recording calls, SMS and locations of more than 6 million users, we study the spread of SMS and Bluetooth viruses and characterize how the social network and the mobility of mobile phone users affect such spreading processes.

  19. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  20. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  1. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  2. Rhodotorula Endogenous Endophthalmitis: A Novel Harbinger of the Injection Drug Epidemic in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preston M. Luong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Endogenous endophthalmitis is a rare but feared infectious ocular complication of injection drug use (IDU. The recent opioid epidemic in the United States threatens to increase the incidence of this disease. We report the first case of endogenous endophthalmitis in the United States caused by the emerging fungal pathogen Rhodotorula in an injection drug user which led to no light perception vision (NLP. Worldwide experience with Rhodotorula endogenous endophthalmitis is limited, but existing cases suggest infection by this particular fungal genus has a grim prognosis.

  3. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A comprehensive review of a growing epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Kareem; Bhalla, Varun; Ezz El Regal, Mohammed; A-Kader, H Hesham

    2014-01-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is quickly becoming one of the most prominent causes of liver disease worldwide. The increasing incidence of NAFLD is tied to the obesity epidemic and the subsequent metabolic derangements brought along with it. Current efforts to elucidate the mechanism and causes of the disease have answered some questions, but much remains unknown about NAFLD. The aim of this article is to discuss the current knowledge regarding the pathogenesis of the disease, as well as the current and future diagnostic, preventative, and therapeutic options available to clinicians for the management of NAFLD. PMID:25232245

  4. Epidemic dynamics on a risk-based evolving social network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antwi, Shadrack; Shaw, Leah

    2013-03-01

    Social network models have been used to study how behavior affects the dynamics of an infection in a population. Motivated by HIV, we consider how a trade-off between benefits and risks of sexual connections determine network structure and disease prevalence. We define a stochastic network model with formation and breaking of links as changes in sexual contacts. Each node has an intrinsic benefit its neighbors derive from connecting to it. Nodes' infection status is not apparent to others, but nodes with more connections (higher degree) are assumed more likely to be infected. The probability to form and break links is determined by a payoff computed from the benefit and degree-dependent risk. The disease is represented by a SI (susceptible-infected) model. We study network and epidemic evolution via Monte Carlo simulation and analytically predict the behavior with a heterogeneous mean field approach. The dependence of network connectivity and infection threshold on parameters is determined, and steady state degree distribution and epidemic levels are obtained. We also study a situation where system-wide infection levels alter perception of risk and cause nodes to adjust their behavior. This is a case of an adaptive network, where node status feeds back to change network geometry.

  5. On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

    2015-12-01

    The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

  6. Analytical modeling of worldwide medical radiation use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mettler, F.A. Jr.; Davis, M.; Kelsey, C.A.; Rosenberg, R.; Williams, A.

    1987-01-01

    An analytical model was developed to estimate the availability and frequency of medical radiation use on a worldwide basis. This model includes medical and dental x-ray, nuclear medicine, and radiation therapy. The development of an analytical model is necessary as the first step in estimating the radiation dose to the world's population from this source. Since there is no data about the frequency of medical radiation use in more than half the countries in the world and only fragmentary data in an additional one-fourth of the world's countries, such a model can be used to predict the uses of medical radiation in these countries. The model indicates that there are approximately 400,000 medical x-ray machines worldwide and that approximately 1.2 billion diagnostic medical x-ray examinations are performed annually. Dental x-ray examinations are estimated at 315 million annually and approximately 22 million in-vivo diagnostic nuclear medicine examinations. Approximately 4 million radiation therapy procedures or courses of treatment are undertaken annually

  7. Worldwide status of burbot and conservation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stapanian, Martin A.; Paragamian, Vaughn L.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Jackson, James R.; Lappalainen, Jyrki; Evenson, Matthew J.; Neufeld, Matthew D.

    2010-01-01

    Although burbot (Lota lota Gadidae) are widespread and abundant throughout much of their natural range, there are many populations that have been extirpated, endangered or are in serious decline. Due in part to the species’ lack of popularity as a game and commercial fish, few regions consider burbot in management plans. We review the worldwide population status of burbot and synthesize reasons why some burbot populations are endangered or declining, some burbot populations have recovered and some burbot populations do not recover despite management measures. Burbot have been extirpated in much of Western Europe and the United Kingdom and are threatened or endangered in much of North America and Eurasia. Pollution and habitat change, particularly the effects of dams, appear to be the main causes for declines in riverine burbot populations. Pollution and the adverse effects of invasive species appear to be the main reasons for declines in lacustrine populations. Warmer water temperatures, due either to discharge from dams or climate change, have been noted in declining burbot populations at the southern extent of their range. Currently, fishing pressure does not appear to be limiting burbot populations world-wide. We suggest mitigation measures for burbot population recovery, particularly those impacted by dams and invasive species.

  8. Origins of food crops connect countries worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achicanoy, Harold A.; Bjorkman, Anne D.; Navarro-Racines, Carlos; Guarino, Luigi; Flores-Palacios, Ximena; Engels, Johannes M. M.; Wiersema, John H.; Dempewolf, Hannes; Sotelo, Steven; Ramírez-Villegas, Julian; Castañeda-Álvarez, Nora P.; Fowler, Cary; Jarvis, Andy; Rieseberg, Loren H.; Struik, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Research into the origins of food plants has led to the recognition that specific geographical regions around the world have been of particular importance to the development of agricultural crops. Yet the relative contributions of these different regions in the context of current food systems have not been quantified. Here we determine the origins (‘primary regions of diversity’) of the crops comprising the food supplies and agricultural production of countries worldwide. We estimate the degree to which countries use crops from regions of diversity other than their own (‘foreign crops’), and quantify changes in this usage over the past 50 years. Countries are highly interconnected with regard to primary regions of diversity of the crops they cultivate and/or consume. Foreign crops are extensively used in food supplies (68.7% of national food supplies as a global mean are derived from foreign crops) and production systems (69.3% of crops grown are foreign). Foreign crop usage has increased significantly over the past 50 years, including in countries with high indigenous crop diversity. The results provide a novel perspective on the ongoing globalization of food systems worldwide, and bolster evidence for the importance of international collaboration on genetic resource conservation and exchange.

  9. Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Closas Pau

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

  10. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-06-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

  11. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  12. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  13. Susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemics on networks with general infection and cure times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cator, E.; van de Bovenkamp, R.; Van Mieghem, P.

    2013-06-01

    The classical, continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) Markov epidemic model on an arbitrary network is extended to incorporate infection and curing or recovery times each characterized by a general distribution (rather than an exponential distribution as in Markov processes). This extension, called the generalized SIS (GSIS) model, is believed to have a much larger applicability to real-world epidemics (such as information spread in online social networks, real diseases, malware spread in computer networks, etc.) that likely do not feature exponential times. While the exact governing equations for the GSIS model are difficult to deduce due to their non-Markovian nature, accurate mean-field equations are derived that resemble our previous N-intertwined mean-field approximation (NIMFA) and so allow us to transfer the whole analytic machinery of the NIMFA to the GSIS model. In particular, we establish the criterion to compute the epidemic threshold in the GSIS model. Moreover, we show that the average number of infection attempts during a recovery time is the more natural key parameter, instead of the effective infection rate in the classical, continuous-time SIS Markov model. The relative simplicity of our mean-field results enables us to treat more general types of SIS epidemics, while offering an easier key parameter to measure the average activity of those general viral agents.

  14. Asthma in Latin America: the dawn of a new epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitrez, Paulo M; Stein, Renato T

    2008-10-01

    Asthma is a heterogeneous disease with high morbidity worldwide. Unlike the low prevalence of asthma and allergy found in many developing countries, especially in rural settings, its prevalence in Latin America is high. In these sites, nonatopic asthma seems to be the most common phenotype observed among school-age children. Therefore, it seems that asthma in Latin America has some particular characteristics that will be presented and discussed in this article. The prevalence of asthma-like symptoms in childhood is high in many populations studied in Latin America with similar frequencies to those reported in more developed countries. However, the mechanisms and risk factors associated with nonatopic asthma, which is the most prevalent phenotype in this region, have been scarcely studied. The better understanding of asthma phenotypes that prevail in Latin America and the investigation of determining factor studies may help establish new diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. These findings should affect public health policies for this new asthma epidemic through the combination of the atopic and nonatopic phenotypes. We hope that this article sheds some new light into these important and most relevant questions.

  15. Fighting the Global Cancer Epidemic through Precise Measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    Cancer has passed heart disease to become the single leading cause of death worldwide. In 2000, there were 10.1 million new cases of cancer and 6.2 million deaths caused by cancer. By 2012, these numbers had risen respectively to 14.1 million and 8.2 million. As the global cancer epidemic continues to spread, the need for effective diagnosis and treatment is growing. Nuclear and other related technologies, such as diagnostic imaging techniques and radiotherapy, are fundamental to diagnosing and treating cancer. Both diagnostic imaging and radiotherapy involve radiation exposure, which can be highly effective for treating patients, but also dangerous to medical staff and patients if not used accurately and safely. Techniques such as medical dosimetry help to ensure the safe use of radiation. Medical dosimetry is a cornerstone of safe and effective cancer diagnosis and treatment. It deals with the measurement of absorbed doses and the optimization of dose delivery in radiation medicine. This includes activities such as audits and the calibration of equipment, the development and dissemination of dosimetry techniques, and the implementation of quality assurance programmes

  16. Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittoria Colizza

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus, which is now widespread in Southeast Asia and which diffused recently in some areas of the Balkans region and Western Europe, has raised a public alert toward the potential occurrence of a new severe influenza pandemic. Here we study the worldwide spread of a pandemic and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal. For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV drugs. We investigated the effect of the use of AV drugs in the event that therapeutic protocols can be carried out with maximal coverage for the populations in all countries. In view of the wide diversity of AV stockpiles in different regions of the world, we also studied scenarios in which only a limited number of countries are prepared (i.e., have considerable AV supplies. In particular, we compared different plans in which, on the one hand, only prepared and wealthy countries benefit from large AV resources, with, on the other hand, cooperative containment scenarios in which countries with large AV stockpiles make a small portion of their supplies available worldwide. CONCLUSIONS: We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit

  17. A worldwide survey of fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennies, H.H.

    1986-01-01

    While the completion of the SNR 300 was accompanied by manifold discussions on questions relevant to safety and energy policies in the Federal Republic of Germany and as a result considerable scheduling delays and exceeding of budgets were recorded, breeder reactor technology has been progressing worldwide. The transition from the development phase with small trial reactors to the construction and operation of large performance reactors was completed systematically, in particular in France and the Soviet Union. Even though the uranium supply situation does not make a short-term and comprehensive employment of fast breeder reactors essential, technology has meanwhile been advanced to such a level and extensive operating experience is on hand to enable the construction and safe operation of fast breeder reactors. A positive answer has long been found to the question of the realization of a breeding rate to guarantee the breeding effect. There remain now the endeavors to achieve a reduction in investment and fuel cycle costs. (orig.) [de

  18. Worldwide clustering of the corruption perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulus, Michal; Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2015-06-01

    We inspect a possible clustering structure of the corruption perception among 134 countries. Using the average linkage clustering, we uncover a well-defined hierarchy in the relationships among countries. Four main clusters are identified and they suggest that countries worldwide can be quite well separated according to their perception of corruption. Moreover, we find a strong connection between corruption levels and a stage of development inside the clusters. The ranking of countries according to their corruption perfectly copies the ranking according to the economic performance measured by the gross domestic product per capita of the member states. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first one to present an application of hierarchical and clustering methods to the specific case of corruption.

  19. Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Andersen, Lars Bo; Bugge, Anna

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes...... in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes...... prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes...

  20. World-Wide Web the information universe

    CERN Document Server

    Berners-Lee, Tim; Groff, Jean-Francois; Pollermann, Bernd

    1992-01-01

    Purpose - The World-Wide Web (W-3) initiative is a practical project designed to bring a global information universe into existence using available technology. This paper seeks to describe the aims, data model, and protocols needed to implement the "web" and to compare them with various contemporary systems. Design/methodology/approach - Since Vannevar Bush's article, men have dreamed of extending their intellect by making their collective knowledge available to each individual by using machines. Computers provide us two practical techniques for human-knowledge interface. One is hypertext, in which links between pieces of text (or other media) mimic human association of ideas. The other is text retrieval, which allows associations to be deduced from the content of text. The W-3 ideal world allows both operations and provides access from any browsing platform. Findings - Various server gateways to other information systems have been produced, and the total amount of information available on the web is...

  1. Cell therapy worldwide: an incipient revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Mahendra; Mason, Chris; Solomon, Susan

    2015-01-01

    The regenerative medicine field is large, diverse and active worldwide. A variety of different organizational and product models have been successful, and pioneering entrepreneurs have shown both what can work and, critically, what does not. Evolving regulations, novel funding mechanisms combined with new technological breakthroughs are keeping the field in a state of flux. The field struggles to cope with the lack of infrastructure and investment, it nevertheless has evolved from its roots in human stem cell therapy and tissue and organ transplants to a field composed of a variety of products from multiple cell sources with approval for use in numerous countries. Currently, tens of thousands of patients have been treated with some kind of cell therapy.

  2. Worldwide Increasing Incidences of Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godar, D. E.

    2011-01-01

    The incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) has been increasing at a steady rate in fair-skinned populations around the world for decades. Scientists are not certain why CMM has been steadily increasing, but strong, intermittent UVB (290-320 nm) exposures, especially sunburn episodes, probably initiate, CMM, while UVA (321-400 nm) passing through glass windows in offices and cars probably promotes it. The CMM incidence may be increasing at an exponential rate around the world, but it definitely decreases with increasing latitude up to∼ 50 degree N where it reverses and increases with the increasing latitude. The inversion in the incidence of CMM may occur because there is more UVA relative to UVB for most of the year at higher latitudes. If windows, allowing UVA to enter our indoor-working environment and cars, are at least partly responsible for the increasing incidence of CMM, then UV filters can be applied to reduce the rate of increase worldwide.

  3. Selection signatures in worldwide sheep populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fariello, Maria-Ines; Servin, Bertrand; Tosser-Klopp, Gwenola; Rupp, Rachel; Moreno, Carole; San Cristobal, Magali; Boitard, Simon

    2014-01-01

    The diversity of populations in domestic species offers great opportunities to study genome response to selection. The recently published Sheep HapMap dataset is a great example of characterization of the world wide genetic diversity in sheep. In this study, we re-analyzed the Sheep HapMap dataset to identify selection signatures in worldwide sheep populations. Compared to previous analyses, we made use of statistical methods that (i) take account of the hierarchical structure of sheep populations, (ii) make use of linkage disequilibrium information and (iii) focus specifically on either recent or older selection signatures. We show that this allows pinpointing several new selection signatures in the sheep genome and distinguishing those related to modern breeding objectives and to earlier post-domestication constraints. The newly identified regions, together with the ones previously identified, reveal the extensive genome response to selection on morphology, color and adaptation to new environments.

  4. Towards worldwide height unification using ocean information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. L. Woodworth

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes how we are contributing to worldwide height system unification (WHSU by using ocean models together with sea level (tide gauge and altimeter information, geodetic (GPS and levelling data, and new geoid models based on information from the GRACE and GOCE gravity missions, to understand how mean sea level (MSL varies from place to place along the coast. For the last two centuries, MSL has been used to define datums for national levelling systems. However, there are many problems with this. One consequence of WHSU will be the substitution of conventional datums as a reference for heights with the use of geoid, as the only true "level" or datum. This work is within a number of GOCE-related activities funded by the European Space Agency. The study is focused on the coastlines of North America and Europe where the various datasets are most copious.

  5. CMS Centres Worldwide - a New Collaborative Infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, Lucas

    2011-01-01

    The CMS Experiment at the LHC has established a network of more than fifty inter-connected 'CMS Centres' at CERN and in institutes in the Americas, Asia, Australasia, and Europe. These facilities are used by people doing CMS detector and computing grid operations, remote shifts, data quality monitoring and analysis, as well as education and outreach. We present the computing, software, and collaborative tools and videoconferencing systems. These include permanently running 'telepresence' video links (hardware-based H.323, EVO and Vidyo), Webcasts, and generic Web tools such as CMS-TV for broadcasting live monitoring and outreach information. Being Web-based and experiment-independent, these systems could easily be extended to other organizations. We describe the experiences of using CMS Centres Worldwide in the CMS data-taking operations as well as for major media events with several hundred TV channels, radio stations, and many more press journalists simultaneously around the world.

  6. Climate Change Impacts on Worldwide Coffee Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, T.; Rising, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Coffee (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) plays a vital role in many countries' economies, providing necessary income to 25 million members of tropical countries, and supporting a $81 billion industry, making it one of the most valuable commodities in the world. At the same time, coffee is at the center of many issues of sustainability. It is vulnerable to climate change, with disease outbreaks becoming more common and suitable regions beginning to shift. We develop a statistical production model for coffee which incorporates temperature, precipitation, frost, and humidity effects using a new database of worldwide coffee production. We then use this model to project coffee yields and production into the future based on a variety of climate forecasts. This model can then be used together with a market model to forecast the locations of future coffee production as well as future prices, supply, and demand.

  7. Overview and forecast on forestry productions worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenjun, Zhang

    2007-02-01

    Our world is largely dependent upon the forestry productions. Through the exploitation of forest reserves, we manufacture various industrial products, furniture, and obtain fuel and energy. Forestry productions should be conducted without large-scale deforestation and environmental degradation. In present study we perform a review and forecast analysis on forestry productions worldwide, with the objectives of providing an insight into the trend for several types of forestry productions in the future, and providing referential data for sustainable forestry productions and environmental management. Polynomial functions are used to fit trajectories of forestry productions since 1961 and forecasts during the coming 20 years are given in detail. If the past pattern continues, world fibreboard production would dramatically grow and reach 224,300,000 +/- 44,400,000 m(3) by the year 2020, an increase up to 240.7 to 408.9% as compared to the present level. Roundwood production of the world would change by -55.5 to 70.4% and reach 3,526,600,000 +/- 2,066,800,000 m(3) by 2020. In 2020 world production of sawlogs and veneer logs would change by -100 to 164.6% and reach 1,212,900,000 +/- 1,242,600,000 m(3). Global wood fuel production would change by -68.9 to 1.4% and reach 1,130,900,000 +/- 600,800,000 m(3) by 2020. Forestry productions in developed countries would largely surpass productions in developing countries in the near future. World forestry production grew since 1961 excluding wood fuel. Roundwood and wood fuel account for the critical proportions in the forestry productions. Wood fuel production has being declined and rapid growing of roundwood production has slowed in recent years. Widespread use of regenerative wood substitutes and worldwide afforestation against deforestation will be among the most effective ways to reduce deforestation and environment degradation associated with forestry productions.

  8. Child homicide perpetrators worldwide: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stöckl, Heidi; Dekel, Bianca; Morris-Gehring, Alison; Watts, Charlotte; Abrahams, Naeemah

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to describe child homicide perpetrators and estimate their global and regional proportion to inform prevention strategies to reduce child homicide mortality worldwide. A systematic review of 9431 studies derived from 18 databases led to the inclusion of 126 studies after double screening. All included studies reported a number or proportion of child homicides perpetrators. 169 countries and homicide experts were surveyed in addition. The median proportion for each perpetrator category was calculated by region and overall and by age groups and sex. Data were obtained for 44 countries. Overall, parents committed 56.5% (IQR 23.7-69.6) of child homicides, 58.4% (0.0-66.7) of female and 46.8% (14.1-63.8) of male child homicides. Acquaintances committed 12.6% (5.9-31.3) of child homicides. Almost a tenth (9.2% (IQR 0.0-21.9) of child homicides had missing information on the perpetrator. The largest proportion of parental homicides of children was found in high-income countries (64.2%; 44.7-71.8) and East Asia and Pacific Region (61.7%; 46.7-78.6). Parents committed the majority (77.8% (61.5-100.0)) of homicides of children under the age of 1 year. For adolescents, acquaintances were the main group of homicide perpetrators (36.9%, 6.6-51.8). There is a notable lack of studies from low-income and middle-income countries and children above the age of 1 year. Children face the highest risk of homicide by parents and someone they know. Increased investment into the compilation of routine data on child homicide, and the perpetrators of this homicide is imperative for understanding and ultimately reducing child homicide mortality worldwide. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42015030125.

  9. DEVELOPMENT OF WOOD-BASED PRODUCTS WORLDWIDE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius C. BARBU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The tendency in recent decades for manufacturing plants of semi-finished products such as composite panels, has been to invest in order to achieve high production capacities (>2,000 m³/day for panels and >3,000 t/day for paper with one line. The trend of concentrating the primary processing capacities and manufacturing wood-based panels will continue for the next few years not only in Europe but in North and South America as well. The ten largest panel manufacturers had a combined manufacturing capacity that exceeded a third of the worldwide production capacity. The financial crisis that started in 2008 has caused the closure of a large number of factories especially in North America and Central Europe. Small- and medium-sized producers will only survive if they will continue to specialize in the manufacture of panel types and sizes (niche products that are “unprofitable” for mega-groups. The installed production capacity worldwide of all wood-based composite panels combined (includes PY, PB, MDF, OSB rose by more than 2.5 times between 1980 and 2005 (225 mil.m³, and continues to increase despite the crises reaching approx. 300 mil.m³ in 2013. The forecast for the coming years varies greatly from continent to continent. In North America and Central Europe, both a consolidation of the available production capacities and the closure of less efficient older lines are expected. The lowest point of the effect of the financial crisis on the building industry seems to have been overcome. The furniture production companies will continue to move from one continent and region to another.

  10. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  11. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  12. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  13. Ciguatera fish poisoning. A southern California epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, E D; Tanner, P; Turchen, S G; Tunget, C L; Manoguerra, A; Clark, R F

    1995-01-01

    Ciguatera fish poisoning results from the bioconcentration of a variety of toxins produced by marine dinoflagellates. Signs and symptoms vary widely, but it usually presents as gastrointestinal and neurologic complaints beginning shortly after the ingestion of fish containing the toxins. Symptoms may persist for months and sometimes even years. Although cases have been reported throughout the United States, epidemics are most common along tropical and subtropical coasts and usually involve the ingestion of large carnivorous fish. We review the literature and report the first epidemic of 25 cases of ciguatera fish poisoning presenting to area hospitals in Southern California that were successfully tracked by the Department of Health Services and isolated to fish caught off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Images Figure 1. PMID:7667980

  14. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  15. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  16. Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

    2014-06-01

    Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

  17. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petter Holme

    Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  18. Emergence of epidemics in rapidly varying networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna

    2013-01-01

    We describe a simple model mimicking disease spreading on a network with dynamically varying connections, and investigate the dynamical consequences of switching links in the network. Our central observation is that the disease cycles get more synchronized, indicating the onset of epidemics, as the underlying network changes more rapidly. This behavior is found for periodically switched links, as well as links that switch randomly in time. We find that the influence of changing links is more pronounced in networks where the nodes have lower degree, and the disease cycle has a longer infective stage. Further, when the switching of links is periodic we observe finer dynamical features, such as beating patterns in the emergent oscillations and resonant enhancement of synchronization, arising from the interplay between the time-scales of the connectivity changes and that of the epidemic outbreaks

  19. [The depression epidemic does not exist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2009-01-01

    There has been much discussion in the media about the question of the existence of a depression epidemic. This leads on to the questions of whether the social and economic approaches are adequate, and what the alternatives are. The concept of the disease 'depression' can be defined using a medical model, or from a patient's or a societal perspective. From a medical perspective, indeed a depression epidemic has ensued from the increased prosperity and the associated decompression of the mortality rate. Society responded with preventative measures and policies aimed at improving functioning in the workplace. However, patients with a major depressive disorder (MDD) who are eligible for treatment are often not motivated to take it up, or are undertreated. Research is necessary in order to explore what patients think about the identification and treatment of depression. The confusion regarding the concept of depression found in the media, needs to be cleared.

  20. New Approaches to the Methamphetamine Epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Zusman, Mara B.

    2004-01-01

    Methamphetamine abuse has become an epidemic in the United States. As methamphetamine becomes increasingly available, more and more people are trying – and becoming addicted to – this potent drug. But although methamphetamine is made using over-the-counter (OTC) drugs containing pseudoephedrine, shifting OTC drugs containing pseudoephedrine to prescription status is not the solution to the methamphetamine crisis. Rather, society must adopt a comprehensive...

  1. The 1982 epidemic--roller skating injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunker, T. D.

    1983-01-01

    A series of 100 roller skating injuries is presented. Roller skating injuries have been occurring at a higher rate than the previously reported skateboarding epidemic of 1977. The severity of injury has been lower, 32% fractures and dislocations occurring whilst roller skating, compared to 60% whilst skateboarding. In particular a striking reduction is seen in ankle fractures. Fifty questionnaires detailing method of injury were analysed. Images p205-a Fig. 1 Fig. 2 PMID:6652406

  2. Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model for Early Warning at the Start of a Hand Foot Mouth Disease Epidemic in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Qingyu; Wu, Jun; Fan, Xuesong; Pan, Liyang; Sun, Wei

    2016-01-01

    The hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a human syndrome caused by intestinal viruses like that coxsackie A virus 16, enterovirus 71 and easily developed into outbreak in kindergarten and school. Scientifically and accurately early detection of the start time of HFMD epidemic is a key principle in planning of control measures and minimizing the impact of HFMD. The objective of this study was to establish a reliable early detection model for start timing of hand foot mouth disease epidemic in Dalian and to evaluate the performance of model by analyzing the sensitivity in detectability. The negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the weekly baseline case number of HFMD and identified the optimal alerting threshold between tested difference threshold values during the epidemic and non-epidemic year. Circular distribution method was used to calculate the gold standard of start timing of HFMD epidemic. From 2009 to 2014, a total of 62022 HFMD cases were reported (36879 males and 25143 females) in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China, including 15 fatal cases. The median age of the patients was 3 years. The incidence rate of epidemic year ranged from 137.54 per 100,000 population to 231.44 per 100,000population, the incidence rate of non-epidemic year was lower than 112 per 100,000 population. The negative binomial regression model with AIC value 147.28 was finally selected to construct the baseline level. The threshold value was 100 for the epidemic year and 50 for the non- epidemic year had the highest sensitivity(100%) both in retrospective and prospective early warning and the detection time-consuming was 2 weeks before the actual starting of HFMD epidemic. The negative binomial regression model could early warning the start of a HFMD epidemic with good sensitivity and appropriate detection time in Dalian.

  3. The spreading time in SIS epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2018-03-01

    In a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) process, we investigate the spreading time Tm, which is the time when the number of infected nodes in the metastable state is first reached, starting from the outbreak of the epidemics. We observe that the spreading time Tm resembles a lognormal-like distribution, though with different deep tails, both for the Markovian and the non-Markovian infection process, which implies that the spreading time can be very long with a relatively high probability. In addition, we show that a stronger virus, with a higher effective infection rate τ or an earlier timing of the infection attempts, does not always lead to a shorter average spreading time E [Tm ] . We numerically demonstrate that the average spreading time E [Tm ] in the complete graph and the star graph scales logarithmically as a function of the network size N for a fixed fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state.

  4. Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, T.

    2015-01-01

    Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.

  5. Lessons Learned from Microgrid Demonstrations Worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Zhou, Nan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Qu, Min [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Romankiewicz, John [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-01-31

    The survey leads to policy recommendations for starting a microgrid demonstration program and overall development of microgrid and distributed energy. Additionally, specific recommendations have been made for China specifically.

  6. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  7. Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

    2014-02-21

    Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

  8. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  9. Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  10. [Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzel, Géraldine

    2014-01-01

    The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

  11. Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-07

    Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  13. Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Buono

    Full Text Available Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction [Formula: see text] of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted [Formula: see text]. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction [Formula: see text] of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of [Formula: see text] the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.

  14. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  15. Overview of drug-resistant tuberculosis worldwide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali A Velayati

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Even in the 21st century, we are losing the battle against eradication of tuberculosis (TB. In 2015, 9.6 million people were estimated to have fallen ill with TB, of which 1.5 million people died. This is the real situation despite the well-structured treatment programs and availability of effective treatment options since the 1950s. The high mortality rate has been associated with other risk factors, such as the HIV epidemic, underlying diseases, and decline of socioeconomic standards. Furthermore, the problem of drug resistance that was recognized in the early days of the chemotherapeutic era raises serious concerns. Although resistance to a single agent is the most common type, resistance to multiple agents is less frequent but of greater concern. The World Health Organization estimated approximately 5% of all new TB cases involved multidrug-resistant (MDR-TB. The estimation for MDR-TB is 3.3% for new cases, and 20.5% for previously treated cases. Failure to identify and appropriately treat MDR-TB patients has led to more dangerous forms of resistant TB. Based on World Health Organization reports, 5% of global TB cases are now considered to be extensively drug resistant (XDR, defined as MDR with additional resistance to both fluoroquinolones and at least one second-line injectable drug. XDR-TB had been reported by 105 countries by 2015. An estimated 9.7% of people with MDR-TB have XDR-TB. More recently, another dangerous form of TB bacillus was identified, which was named totally drug resistant (TDR-TB or extremely drug resistant TB. These strains were resistant to all first- and second-line anti-TB drugs. Collectively, it is accepted that 2% of MDR-TB strains turn to be TDR-TB. This number, however, may not reflect the real situation, as many laboratories in endemic TB countries do not have proper facilities and updated protocols to detect the XDR or TDR-TB strains. Nevertheless, existing data emphasize the need for additional control

  16. Ethical pharmaceutical promotion and communications worldwide: codes and regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    The international pharmaceutical industry has made significant efforts towards ensuring compliant and ethical communication and interaction with physicians and patients. This article presents the current status of the worldwide governance of communication practices by pharmaceutical companies, concentrating on prescription-only medicines. It analyzes legislative, regulatory, and code-based compliance control mechanisms and highlights significant developments, including the 2006 and 2012 revisions of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations (IFPMA) Code of Practice. Developments in international controls, largely built upon long-established rules relating to the quality of advertising material, have contributed to clarifying the scope of acceptable company interactions with healthcare professionals. This article aims to provide policy makers, particularly in developing countries, with an overview of the evolution of mechanisms governing the communication practices, such as the distribution of promotional or scientific material and interactions with healthcare stakeholders, relating to prescription-only medicines. PMID:24679064

  17. Affordable Digital Planetariums with WorldWide Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfield, P.; Connolly, A.; Fay, J.; Sayres, C.; Tofflemire, B.

    2011-09-01

    Digital planetariums can provide a broader range of educational experiences than the more classical planetariums that use star-balls. This is because of their ability to project images, content from current research, and the 3-D distribution of the stars and galaxies. While there are hundreds of planetariums in the country, the reason that few of these are fully digital is the cost. In collaboration with Microsoft Research (MSR), we have developed a way to digitize existing planetariums for approximately $40,000 using freely available software. We describe here how off the shelf equipment, together with a WorldWide Telescope client, can provide a rich and truly interactive experience. This will enable students and the public to pan though multi-wavelength full-sky scientific data sets, explore 3-D visualizations of our Solar System (including trajectories of millions of minor planets), near-by stars, and the SDSS galaxy catalog.

  18. Ethical pharmaceutical promotion and communications worldwide: codes and regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francer, Jeffrey; Izquierdo, Jose Zamarriego; Music, Tamara; Narsai, Kirti; Nikidis, Chrisoula; Simmonds, Heather; Woods, Paul

    2014-03-29

    The international pharmaceutical industry has made significant efforts towards ensuring compliant and ethical communication and interaction with physicians and patients. This article presents the current status of the worldwide governance of communication practices by pharmaceutical companies, concentrating on prescription-only medicines. It analyzes legislative, regulatory, and code-based compliance control mechanisms and highlights significant developments, including the 2006 and 2012 revisions of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations (IFPMA) Code of Practice.Developments in international controls, largely built upon long-established rules relating to the quality of advertising material, have contributed to clarifying the scope of acceptable company interactions with healthcare professionals. This article aims to provide policy makers, particularly in developing countries, with an overview of the evolution of mechanisms governing the communication practices, such as the distribution of promotional or scientific material and interactions with healthcare stakeholders, relating to prescription-only medicines.

  19. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  20. WATER REALITY IN UKRAINE AND WORLDWIDE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. F. Dolina

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The paper analyzes the state of water management in Ukraine and worldwide, as well as the best practices in this area. Methodology. The study was carried out based on the analysis of literature sources and reporting data on the state of water management in Ukraine, European countries, the USA (2010-2016. Findings. The water state analysis in the regions of Ukraine showed that the quality in most cases is close to or meets the requirements for drinking water. Drinking tap water requires post-treatment in all regions of the country. The main issue for today is the production of the necessary equipment for treatment plants. Unfortunately, not all equipment is produced in Ukraine. The condition of rural water pipelines is of particular concern. Among the tested pipelines 7.3% do not comply with the rules and regulations. At the same time, only 25% of villages in Ukraine are provided with centralized water supply. Originality. The authors presented the results of a comprehensive review of the world's issues on disinfection of drinking and waste water, where various methods are used, partly in combination with each other in Ukraine and the worldwide. The main unresolved issue today is the issue of the residual quantity of drugs in the drinking water. The main environmental threat of the world scale is the presence of medicines in drinking water. The treatment facilities are not suitable for the decomposition or trapping of medicinal products. Nowhere in the world there is protection from these substances. One of the key issues in the solution of drinking water production is seawater desalination. To reduce the cost of desalination of sea water the SWRO-membrane technology is used. Practical value. Water problems are number one problems all over the world and in Ukraine as well. It is necessary to provide for additional financing to solve problems in the preparation and purification of waters, not with whatever funds remain, taking into

  1. Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mweya, Clement N; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

    2017-07-01

    Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for Culex pipiens complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors' habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.

  2. [Chronic non-communicable diseases: a global epidemic of the 21st century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Karl; Gudnason, Vilmundur

    2012-11-01

    Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the cause of 86% of all deaths in the EU and 65% of deaths worldwide. A third of these deaths occur before the age of sixty years. The NCDs affect 40% of the adult population of the EU and two thirds of the population reaching retirement age suffers from two or more NCDs. The NCDs are a global epidemic challenging economic growth in most countries. According to the WHO, NCDs are one of the major threats to worldwide social and economic development in the 21st century. The problem is of great concern to the international community and was discussed at a High level meeting at the UN General Assembly in September 2011. In this paper we review the epidemic of NCDs both from a national and international perspective. We discuss the causes and consequences. In a second review paper we reflect on the political health policy issues raised by the international community in order to respond to the problem. These issues will become a major challenge for social and economic development in most countries of the world in the coming decades.

  3. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  4. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  5. Phytophthora infestans population structure: A worldwide scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardenas, Martha; Danies, Giovanna; Tabima, Javier; Bernal, Adriana; Restrepo, Silvia

    2012-01-01

    Phytophthora infestans, the causal agent of late blight disease in potato and other members of the Solanaceae family, is responsible for causing the Irish potato famine and, even today, it causes enormous economic losses all over the world. For the establishment of an adequate pest management strategy, the determination of the pathogen's population structure is required. To characterize P. infestans populations worldwide two allozymes, Gpi (Glucose-6-phospate isomerase) and Pep (Pep tidase), the RG57 DNA RFLP fingerprinting probe, as well as resistance to the fungicide metalaxyl and mating type, have been used as markers. P. infestans populations in Mexico have been one of the main focuses of research in the population biology of this pathogen because this country has been considered as one of the possible centers of origin of this oomycete. In this review we present the population structure of P. infestans in Mexico, Europe, Africa, Asia, North America, and South America, expanding it on the present situation of P. infestans in Colombia. Finally, we will discuss different lines of research that are being carried out today with respect to P. infestans in Colombia, which have shown the importance of continuing the study of this devastating plant pathogen in our country.

  6. Phytophthora infestans population structure: a worldwide scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martha Cárdenas Toquica

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Phytophthora infestans, the causal agent of late blight disease in potato and other members of the Solanaceae family, is responsible for causing the Irish potato famine and, even today, it causes enormous economic losses all over the world. For the establishment of an adequate pest management strategy, the determination of population structure is required. To characterize P. infestans populations worldwide two allozymes, Gpi (Glucose-6-phospate isomerase and Pep (Peptidase, the RG57 DNA RFLP fingerprinting probe, as well as resistance to the fungicide metalaxyl and the mating type, have been used as markers. P. infestans populations in Mexico have been one of the main focuses of research in the population biology of this pathogen because this country has been considered as one of the possible centers of origin of this oomycete. In this review we present the population structure of P. infestans in Mexico, Europe, Africa, Asia, North America, and South America expanding on the present situation of P. infestans in Colombia. Finally, we will discuss different lines of research that are being carried out today with respect to P. infestans in Colombia, which have shown the importance of continuing the study of this devastating plant pathogen in our country.

  7. Geophysical worldwide networks: basic concepts and techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruzie, G.; Baubron, G.

    1997-01-01

    The detection of nuclear explosions around the globe requires the setting up of networks of sensors on a worldwide basis. Such equipment should be able to transmit on-line data in real-time or pseudo real-time to a center or processing centers. The high level of demanded reliability for the data (generally better than 99 %) also has an impact on the accuracy and precision of the sensors and the communications technology, as well as the systems used for on-line checking. In the light of these requirements, DAM has developed a data gathering network based on the principle of VSTA duplex links which ensures the on-line transmission of data and operational parameters towards the Processing Centre via a hub. In the other direction, the Centre can act on a number of parameters in order to correct them if necessary, or notify the local maintenance team. To optimize the reliability of the main components of this system, the detection stations as well as their associated beacons have low consumption and can be supplied by solar panels, thus facilitating the installation of the networks. The seismic network on the French national territory is composed of 40 stations built on the principles outlined above. In order to gather data from stations established outside France, DAM is planning to use an analogue system to transmit data in on-line as well as off-line mode. (authors)

  8. Worldwide Engagement for Sustainable Energy Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-01

    Almost 40 years after the Agency’s founding, the IEA responsibility for ensuring access to global oil supplies is still a core mandate. Yet over the course of its history, the IEA’s responsibilities have expanded along with both the international energy economy and conceptions of energy security itself. Our mission to promote secure and sustainable energy provision spans the energy mix. At the same time, a changing global energy map means that the industrialised nations of the world no longer dominate energy consumption. The IEA must work in close co-operation with partner countries and organisations worldwide to achieve its three core objectives: energy security, economic prosperity, and environmental sustainability. Working toward international commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause global climate change; facilitating energy technology exchange, innovation and deployment; improving modern energy access to the billions of people who are without it; bolstering both cleanliness and security through energy efficiency; and promoting flexible and functioning energy markets – these efforts complement our traditional core responsibilities of mitigating the effects of supply disruptions and improving statistical transparency.

  9. The Worldwide Oil Spill Model (WOSM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, E.L.; Howlett, E.; Jayko, K.; Reed, M.; Spaulding, M.; Kolluru, V.

    1993-01-01

    The Worldwide Oil Spill Model (WOSM) is a standalone microcomputer-based state-of-the-art oil spill model system for use in oil spill response decision support, planning, research, training, and contingency planning. WOSM was developed under support provided by a consortium of oil companies and government agencies. WOSM represents the next generation of oil spill model beyond the OILMAP modelling system (Spaulding et al, 1992). WOSM is designed in a shell architecture in which the only parameters that change are those that describe the area in which the spill model is to be applied. A limited function geographic information system (GIS) is integrated within the model system, and the spill modelling shell has been extended to include interfaces to other GIS systems and digital data. WOSM contains all the databases, data manipulation and graphical display tools, and models to simulate any type of oil spill. The user has control over which weathering processes are to be modelled, and WOSM data input tools enable continual refinement of model predictions as more refined data is imported. Use of WOSM is described and illustrated, showing sample screens and applications. WOSM algorithms and file structure are also outlined. An example test case of a spill in the Juan de Fuca strait is included. 29 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab

  10. Worldwide Increasing Incidences of Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dianne E. Godar

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM has been increasing at a steady rate in fair-skinned populations around the world for decades. Scientists are not certain why CMM has been steadily increasing, but strong, intermittent UVB (290–320 nm exposures, especially sunburn episodes, probably initiate, CMM, while UVA (321–400 nm passing through glass windows in offices and cars probably promotes it. The CMM incidence may be increasing at an exponential rate around the world, but it definitely decreases with increasing latitude up to ~50°N where it reverses and increases with the increasing latitude. The inversion in the incidence of CMM may occur because there is more UVA relative to UVB for most of the year at higher latitudes. If windows, allowing UVA to enter our indoor-working environment and cars, are at least partly responsible for the increasing incidence of CMM, then UV filters can be applied to reduce the rate of increase worldwide.

  11. Worldwide supply of Framatome ANP Fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jouan, J.

    2002-01-01

    Framatome-ANP is organized according to a matrix structure with 4 business groups and 3 regional divisions. The fuel business group with a workforce of about 4600 people is active in all the trades needed to design and manufacture nuclear fuel. The activity ranges from the production of zirconium alloys to the production of finished fuel assemblies, facilities are located in France, Germany and Usa. Framatome-ANP is the foremost vendor of LWR fuel worldwide with 41 % of the PWR market share and 22 % of the BWR market share. The global operating experience built up is based on more than 150.000 fuel assemblies delivered to 169 reactors in 18 countries. This long history has allowed Framatome-ANP to develop an efficient quality-improvement program based on experience feedback, for instance fuel rod failures induced by debris have been almost completely eliminated with the introduction of anti-debris devices equipping bottom nozzles. Framatome-ANP has developed a large range of engineering services, for instance core design teams can provide the most cost-effective fuel management schemes for cycle lengths from 6 to 24 months. The first technology transfer between China entities and Framatome related to the AFA-2G technology started in 1991 and was completed successfully in 1994. Since this date the Chinese manufacturer has supplied fuel reload for the units of Daya-Bay. (A.C.)

  12. Insular threat associations within taxa worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclerc, Camille; Courchamp, Franck; Bellard, Céline

    2018-04-23

    The global loss of biodiversity can be attributed to numerous threats. While pioneer studies have investigated their relative importance, the majority of those studies are restricted to specific geographic regions and/or taxonomic groups and only consider a small subset of threats, generally in isolation despite their frequent interaction. Here, we investigated 11 major threats responsible for species decline on islands worldwide. We applied an innovative method of network analyses to disentangle the associations of multiple threats on vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants in 15 insular regions. Biological invasions, wildlife exploitation, and cultivation, either alone or in association, were found to be the three most important drivers of species extinction and decline on islands. Specifically, wildlife exploitation and cultivation are largely associated with the decline of threatened plants and terrestrial vertebrates, whereas biological invasions mostly threaten invertebrates and freshwater fish. Furthermore, biodiversity in the Indian Ocean and near the Asian coasts is mostly affected by wildlife exploitation and cultivation compared to biological invasions in the Pacific and Atlantic insular regions. We highlighted specific associations of threats at different scales, showing that the analysis of each threat in isolation might be inadequate for developing effective conservation policies and managements.

  13. Bitcoin – the World-Wide Currency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuba Olena А.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at researching bitcoin, the digital currency. It has been found that Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, that is, the virtual money, which has no material equivalent. The history of creation and development of cryptocurrency was reviewed. There is a reduction in volatility, which guarantees the security of currency, as well as the increase in currency volume and the inability to estimate the profitability of bitcoins. The dynamics of the value of digital currency in US dollars over recent years has been analyzed. Improvement of attitude of many countries to the considered cryptocurrency, in particular the USA, Germany, Spain, Canada, Australia, Israel and Scandinavian countries has been identified. The reasons of Ukraine’s interest in Bitcoin have been considered. Possibilities of creation of cryptocurrency on the territory of Ukraine have been analyzed, i.e. cost of electricity for mining, the legal status of mining firms, and the attitude of the National Bank of Ukraine to the digital currency. It has been concluded that the recognition of Bitcoin by the world countries in the future will allow it to be granted the status of world-wide currency.

  14. Economic impact of traditional medicine practice worldwide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana V. Pejcic

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this literature review was to summarize available findings from publications that reported expenditure on traditional/complementary and alternative medicine (TM/CAM within a representative general population sample of a nation or a defined geographical area. A total of 24 publications met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. The expenditure on TM/CAM varies worldwide, but direct comparison of the findings of publications included in this review is limited due to the differences in the definitions of TM/CAM, inclusion of various forms of TM/CAM, use of different names and categorization, as well as differences in reported currencies and time periods in which data were collected. Data about the expenditure on TM/CAM in most countries throughout the world are scarce. Further national studies should be conducted in order to provide up-to-date assessment of the TM/CAM related expenditure patterns and use. Uniform nomenclature, definition of TM/CAM and standardized instruments would provide basis for comparability of data of studies conducted in various regions and time periods.

  15. Evolution of Toilets Worldwide through the Millennia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgios P. Antoniou

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Throughout history, various civilizations developed methodologies for the collection and disposal of human waste. The methodologies throughout the centuries have been characterized by technological peaks on the one hand, and by the disappearance of the technologies and their reappearance on the other. The purpose of this article is to trace the development of sewage collection and transport with an emphasis on toilets in ancient civilizations. Evolution of the major achievements in the scientific fields of sanitation with emphasis on the lavatory (or toilets technologies through the centuries up to the present are presented. Valuable insights into ancient wastewater technologies and management with their apparent characteristics of durability, adaptability to the environment, and sustainability are provided. Gradual steps improved the engineering results until the establishment of the contemporary toilet system, which provides a combined solution for flushing, odor control, and the sanitation of sewerage. Even though the lack of proper toilet facilities for a great percentage of the present day global population is an embarrassing fact, the worldwide efforts through millennia for the acquisition of a well-engineered toilet were connected to the cultural level of each period.

  16. Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Wanders, Niko; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Over the past 50 years, human water use has more than doubled and affected streamflow over various regions of the world. However, it remains unclear to what degree human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought (the occurrence of anomalously low streamflow). Here, we quantify over the period 1960–2010 the impact of human water consumption on the intensity and frequency of hydrological drought worldwide. The results show that human water consumption substantially reduced local and downstream streamflow over Europe, North America and Asia, and subsequently intensified the magnitude of hydrological droughts by 10–500%, occurring during nation- and continent-wide drought events. Also, human water consumption alone increased global drought frequency by 27 (±6)%. The intensification of drought frequency is most severe over Asia (35 ± 7%), but also substantial over North America (25 ± 6%) and Europe (20 ± 5%). Importantly, the severe drought conditions are driven primarily by human water consumption over many parts of these regions. Irrigation is responsible for the intensification of hydrological droughts over the western and central US, southern Europe and Asia, whereas the impact of industrial and households’ consumption on the intensification is considerably larger over the eastern US and western and central Europe. Our findings reveal that human water consumption is one of the more important mechanisms intensifying hydrological drought, and is likely to remain as a major factor affecting drought intensity and frequency in the coming decades. (letter)

  17. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  18. Phylogenetic analysis of canine distemper virus in South America clade 1 reveals unique molecular signatures of the local epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Cristine D B; Gräf, Tiago; Ikuta, Nilo; Lehmann, Fernanda K M; Passos, Daniel T; Makiejczuk, Aline; Silveira, Marcos A T; Fonseca, André S K; Canal, Cláudio W; Lunge, Vagner R

    2016-07-01

    Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a highly contagious pathogen for domestic dogs and several wild carnivore species. In Brazil, natural infection of CDV in dogs is very high due to the large non-vaccinated dog population, a scenario that calls for new studies on the molecular epidemiology. This study investigates the phylodynamics and amino-acid signatures of CDV epidemic in South America by analyzing a large dataset compiled from publicly available sequences and also by collecting new samples from Brazil. A population of 175 dogs with canine distemper (CD) signs was sampled, from which 89 were positive for CDV, generating 42 new CDV sequences. Phylogenetic analysis of the new and publicly available sequences revealed that Brazilian sequences mainly clustered in South America 1 (SA1) clade, which has its origin estimated to the late 1980's. The reconstruction of the demographic history in SA1 clade showed an epidemic expanding until the recent years, doubling in size every nine years. SA1 clade epidemic distinguished from the world CDV epidemic by the emergence of the R580Q strain, a very rare and potentially detrimental substitution in the viral genome. The R580Q substitution was estimated to have happened in one single evolutionary step in the epidemic history in SA1 clade, emerging shortly after introduction to the continent. Moreover, a high prevalence (11.9%) of the Y549H mutation was observed among the domestic dogs sampled here. This finding was associated (p<0.05) with outcome-death and higher frequency in mixed-breed dogs, the later being an indicator of a continuous exchange of CDV strains circulating among wild carnivores and domestic dogs. The results reported here highlight the diversity of the worldwide CDV epidemic and reveal local features that can be valuable for combating the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Worldwide seismicity in view of non-extensive statistical physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chochlaki, Kaliopi; Vallianatos, Filippos; Michas, George

    2014-05-01

    In the present work we study the distribution of worldwide shallow seismic events occurred from 1981 to 2011 extracted from the CMT catalog, with magnitude equal or greater than Mw 5.0. Our analysis based on the subdivision of the Earth surface into seismic zones that are homogeneous with regards to seismic activity and orientation of the predominant stress field. To this direction we use the Flinn-Engdahl regionalization (Flinn and Engdahl, 1965), which consists of 50 seismic zones as modified by Lombardi and Marzocchi (2007), where grouped the 50 FE zones into larger tectonically homogeneous ones, utilizing the cumulative moment tensor method. As a result Lombardi and Marzocchi (2007), limit the initial 50 regions to 39 ones, in which we apply the non- extensive statistical physics approach. The non-extensive statistical physics seems to be the most adequate and promising methodological tool for analyzing complex systems, such as the Earth's interior. In this frame, we introduce the q-exponential formulation as the expression of probability distribution function that maximizes the Sq entropy as defined by Tsallis, (1988). In the present work we analyze the interevent time distribution between successive earthquakes by a q-exponential function in each of the seismic zones defined by Lombardi and Marzocchi (2007).confirming the importance of long-range interactions and the existence of a power-law approximation in the distribution of the interevent times. Our findings supports the ideas of universality within the Tsallis approach to describe Earth's seismicity and present strong evidence on temporal clustering of seismic activity in each of the tectonic zones analyzed. Our analysis as applied in worldwide seismicity with magnitude equal or greater than Mw 5.5 and 6.) is presented and the dependence of our result on the cut-off magnitude is discussed. This research has been funded by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national resources under the

  20. Linking Knowledge Worldwide Annual Report, 1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Netherlands Organisation for International Cooperation in Higher Education, The Hague.

    This annual report discusses the work and progress of the Netherlands Organization for International Cooperation in Higher Education (Nuffic), which is devoted to achieving increased intercultural understanding, an equitable distribution of knowledge and infrastructure over all parts of the world, and improvement in the quality of education.…

  1. Unusual dengue virus 3 epidemic in Nicaragua, 2009.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gamaliel Gutierrez

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4 cause the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans worldwide. In 2009, Nicaragua experienced the largest dengue epidemic in over a decade, marked by unusual clinical presentation, as observed in two prospective studies of pediatric dengue in Managua. From August 2009-January 2010, 212 dengue cases were confirmed among 396 study participants at the National Pediatric Reference Hospital. In our parallel community-based cohort study, 170 dengue cases were recorded in 2009-10, compared to 13-65 cases in 2004-9. In both studies, significantly more patients experienced "compensated shock" (poor capillary refill plus cold extremities, tachycardia, tachypnea, and/or weak pulse in 2009-10 than in previous years (42.5% [90/212] vs. 24.7% [82/332] in the hospital study (p<0.001 and 17% [29/170] vs. 2.2% [4/181] in the cohort study (p<0.001. Signs of poor peripheral perfusion presented significantly earlier (1-2 days in 2009-10 than in previous years according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. In the hospital study, 19.8% of subjects were transferred to intensive care, compared to 7.1% in previous years - similar to the cohort study. DENV-3 predominated in 2008-9, 2009-10, and 2010-11, and full-length sequencing revealed no major genetic changes from 2008-9 to 2010-11. In 2008-9 and 2010-11, typical dengue was observed; only in 2009-10 was unusual presentation noted. Multivariate analysis revealed only "2009-10" as a significant risk factor for Dengue Fever with Compensated Shock. Interestingly, circulation of pandemic influenza A-H1N1 2009 in Managua was shifted such that it overlapped with the dengue epidemic. We hypothesize that prior influenza A H1N1 2009 infection may have modulated subsequent DENV infection, and initial results of an ongoing study suggest increased risk of shock among children with anti-H1N1-2009 antibodies. This study demonstrates that parameters other than serotype, viral

  2. A Bayesian method for inferring transmission chains in a partially observed epidemic.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzouk, Youssef M.; Ray, Jaideep

    2008-10-01

    We present a Bayesian approach for estimating transmission chains and rates in the Abakaliki smallpox epidemic of 1967. The epidemic affected 30 individuals in a community of 74; only the dates of appearance of symptoms were recorded. Our model assumes stochastic transmission of the infections over a social network. Distinct binomial random graphs model intra- and inter-compound social connections, while disease transmission over each link is treated as a Poisson process. Link probabilities and rate parameters are objects of inference. Dates of infection and recovery comprise the remaining unknowns. Distributions for smallpox incubation and recovery periods are obtained from historical data. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo, we explore the joint posterior distribution of the scalar parameters and provide an expected connectivity pattern for the social graph and infection pathway.

  3. Different behaviors of epidemic spreading in scale-free networks with identical degree sequence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chu Xiangwei; Guan Jihong [School of Electronics and Information, Tongji University, 4800 Cao' an Road, Shanghai 201804 (China); Zhang Zhongzhi; Zhou Shuigeng [School of Computer Science, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Li Mo, E-mail: zhangzz@fudan.edu.c, E-mail: jhguan@tongj.edu.c, E-mail: sgzhou@fudan.edu.c [Software School, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China)

    2010-02-12

    Recently, the study of dynamical behaviors of the susceptible-infected (SI) disease model in complex networks, especially in Barabasi-Albert (BA) scale-free networks, has attracted much attention. Although some interesting phenomena have been observed, the formative reasons for those particular dynamical behaviors are still not well understood, despite the speculation that topological properties (for example the degree distribution) have a strong impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, we study the evolution behaviors of epidemic spreading on a class of scale-free networks sharing identical degree sequence, and observe significantly different evolution behaviors in the whole family of networks. We show that the power-law degree distribution does not suffice to characterize the dynamical behaviors of disease diffusion on scale-free networks.

  4. Coevolution of Epidemics, Social Networks, and Individual Behavior: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiangzhuo; Marathe, Achla; Marathe, Madhav

    This research shows how a limited supply of antivirals can be distributed optimally between the hospitals and the market so that the attack rate is minimized and enough revenue is generated to recover the cost of the antivirals. Results using an individual based model find that prevalence elastic demand behavior delays the epidemic and change in the social contact network induced by isolation reduces the peak of the epidemic significantly. A microeconomic analysis methodology combining behavioral economics and agent-based simulation is a major contribution of this work. In this paper we apply this methodology to analyze the fairness of the stockpile distribution, and the response of human behavior to disease prevalence level and its interaction with the market.

  5. Different behaviors of epidemic spreading in scale-free networks with identical degree sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu Xiangwei; Guan Jihong; Zhang Zhongzhi; Zhou Shuigeng; Li Mo

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the study of dynamical behaviors of the susceptible-infected (SI) disease model in complex networks, especially in Barabasi-Albert (BA) scale-free networks, has attracted much attention. Although some interesting phenomena have been observed, the formative reasons for those particular dynamical behaviors are still not well understood, despite the speculation that topological properties (for example the degree distribution) have a strong impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, we study the evolution behaviors of epidemic spreading on a class of scale-free networks sharing identical degree sequence, and observe significantly different evolution behaviors in the whole family of networks. We show that the power-law degree distribution does not suffice to characterize the dynamical behaviors of disease diffusion on scale-free networks.

  6. Epidemic spreading in annealed directed networks: susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Sungchul; Kim, Yup

    2013-01-01

    We investigate epidemic spreading in annealed directed scale-free networks with the in-degree (k) distribution P(in)(k)~k(-γ(in)) and the out-degree (ℓ) distribution, P(out)(ℓ)~ℓ(-γ(out)). The correlation of each node on the networks is controlled by the probability r(0≤r≤1) in two different algorithms, the so-called k and ℓ algorithms. For r=1, the k algorithm gives =, whereas the ℓ algorithm gives =. For r=0, = for both algorithms. As the prototype of epidemic spreading, the susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process on the networks are analyzed using the heterogeneous mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulations. The directedness of links and the correlation of the network are found to play important roles in the spreading, so that critical behaviors of both models are distinct from those on undirected scale-free networks.

  7. Retrospective Analysis of the 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Katherine E.; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S.; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G.; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L.; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L.; Galvani, Alison P.

    2016-01-01

    The 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40–80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. PMID:26928839

  8. Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Katherine E; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L; Galvani, Alison P

    2016-04-01

    The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  9. [Epidemic situation and prevention and control strategy of clonorchiasis in Guangdong Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo-Hui, Deng; Yue-Yi, Fang

    2016-05-24

    Clonorchiasis is one of the food-borne parasitic diseases. Adult parasites live in the human liver and gallbladder tube system, causing serious complications, such as gallstones, cholecystitis and cholangitis, and even bile duct cancer. The disease is very popular in our country, and the population infection rate is high. It is an important public health problem. Guangdong Province is the earliest province being found of clonorchiasis and with serious epidemic. In the second national human parasitic diseases distribution survey, the results showed that the average infection rate of Clonorchis sinensis in the epidemic areas in Guangdong was 16.42%. It is estimated that the population of C. sinensis infection is over 6 million. The prevention and control of clonorchiasis in China is still in the initial stage currently and we face many challenges such as unclear epidemic characteristics and transmission mode, and lack of long-term prevention and control mechanism. This article introduces the epidemic situation of clonorchiasis and prevention and control strategies and measures in Guangdong.

  10. Social and economic influences on human behavioural response in an emerging epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phang, P.; Wiwatanapataphee, B.; Wu, Y. H.

    2017-10-01

    The human behavioural changes have been recognized as an important key in shaping the disease spreading and determining the success of control measures in the course of epidemic outbreaks. However, apart from cost-benefit considerations, in reality, people are heterogeneous in their preferences towards adopting certain protective actions to reduce their risk of infection, and social norms have a function in individuals’ decision making. Here, we studied the interplay between the epidemic dynamics, imitation dynamics and the heterogeneity of individual protective behavioural response under the considerations of both economic and social factors, with a simple mathematical compartmental model and multi-population game dynamical replicator equations. We assume that susceptibles in different subpopulations have different preferences in adopting either normal or altered behaviour. By incorporating both intra- and inter-group social pressure, the outcome of the strategy distribution depends on the initial proportion of susceptible with normal and altered strategies in both subpopulations. The increase of additional cost to susceptible with altered behaviour will discourage people to take up protective actions and hence results in higher epidemic final size. For a specific cost of altered behaviour, the social group pressure could be a “double edge sword”, though. We conclude that the interplays between individual protective behaviour adoption, imitation and epidemic dynamics are necessarily complex if both economic and social factors act on populations with existing preferences.

  11. Molecular Epidemiological Study of Mumps Epidemics of 2015 in Okinawa, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuba, Yumani; Kyan, Hisako; Arakaki, Eri; Takara, Taketoshi; Kato, Takashi; Okano, Sho; Oshiro, Yuko; Kudaka, Jun; Kidokoro, Minoru

    2017-05-24

    Although major mumps epidemics occurred every 4-5 years in Okinawa Prefecture in Japan, no laboratory diagnoses were conducted. A mumps epidemic started in Okinawa in October 2014, and we collected clinical samples from 31 patients in 4 areas (Hokubu, Nanbu, Miyako, and Yaeyama) from July to December 2015, for virus isolation and RT-PCR, whose positive ratios were 52% and 87%, respectively. Phylogenetic analyses showed that all isolates were classified into genotype G, and with one exception, consisted of 2 subgenotypes, Ge (55.6%) and Gw (40.7%), which have been prominent in Japan recently. One isolate was classified in another lineage, which was detected in Japan for the first time, and was similar to a Hong Kong isolate from 2014. Remarkably, the geographic distributions of the 2 major lineages were separated. The Ge viruses were isolated from the main island of Okinawa and the Yaeyama Islands, whereas the Gw isolates were mainly detected from the Miyako Islands. These results suggest that the Ge and Gw mumps viruses mainly caused the mumps epidemics of 2015 in Okinawa, and that they spread independently in separate regions. This is the first report describing the molecular epidemiology of mumps epidemics in Okinawa Prefecture.

  12. Epidemiology of foodborne diseases: a worldwide review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, E C

    1997-01-01

    Acute foodborne disease infections and intoxications are much more of a concern to governments and the food industry today than a few decades ago. Some of the factors that have led to this include the identification of new agents that have caused life-threatening conditions; the finding that traditional agents are being associated with foods that were of no concern previously: an increasing number of large outbreaks being reported; the impact of foodborne disease on children, the aging population and the immunocompromised; migrant populations demanding their traditional foods in the countries of settlement; the ease of worldwide shipment of fresh and frozen food; and the development of new food industries, including aquaculture. However, to meaningfully monitor increases or decreases in foodborne disease requires an effective surveillance system at the local, national and international levels. To date, resources have been limited for most countries and regions to do this, and our current knowledge is based, for the most part, on passive reporting mechanisms. Laboratory isolation data and reports of notifiable diseases have some value in observing timely changes in case numbers of some enteric diseases, but they usually do not indicate the reasons for these trends. Special epidemiological studies are useful for the area covered, but it is often questionable whether they can be extrapolated to other areas or countries. Outbreak investigations tell us that a certain set of circumstances led to illness and that another outbreak may occur under similar but not necessarily identical conditions. Control programmes have often been triggered by the conclusions from investigations of specific outbreaks. Unfortunately, the agent/ food combination leading to illness in many of the reported incidents were not predicted from existing databases, and no doubt foodborne agents will continue to surprise food control agencies in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, data from around

  13. Worldwide QA networks for radiotherapy dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izewska, J.; Svensson, H.; Ibbott, G.

    2002-01-01

    A number of national or international organizations have developed various types and levels of external audits for radiotherapy dosimetry. There are three major programmes who make available external audits, based on mailed TLD (thermoluminescent dosimetry), to local radiotherapy centres on a regular basis. These are the IAEA/WHO TLD postal dose audit service operating worldwide, the European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (ESTRO) system, EQUAL, in European Union (EU) and the Radiological Physics Center (RPC) in North America. The IAEA, in collaboration with WHO, was the first organization to initiate TLD audits on an international scale in 1969, using mailed system, and has a well-established programme for providing dose verification in reference conditions. Over 32 years, the IAEA/WHO TLD audit service has checked the calibration of more than 4300 radiotherapy beams in about 1200 hospitals world-wide. Only 74% of those hospitals who receive TLDs for the first time have results with deviation between measured and stated dose within acceptance limits of ±5%, while approximately 88% of the users that have benefited from a previous TLD audit are successful. EQUAL, an audit programme set up in 1998 by ESTRO, involves the verification of output for high energy photon and electron beams, and the audit of beam parameters in non-reference conditions. More than 300 beams are checked each year, mainly in the countries of EU, covering approximately 500 hospitals. The results show that although 98% of the beam calibrations are within the tolerance level of ±5%, a second check was required in 10% of the participating centres, because a deviation larger than ±5% was observed in at least one of the beam parameters in non-reference conditions. EQUAL has been linked to another European network (EC network) which tested the audit methodology prior to its application. The RPC has been funded continuously since 1968 to monitor radiation therapy dose delivery at

  14. Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Carrión, E; Ivorra, B; Martínez-López, B; Ramos, A M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

    2016-04-01

    Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. The present work describes a new module integrated into Be-FAST to model the economic consequences of the spreading of classical swine fever (CSF) and other infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. CSF is financially one of the most damaging diseases in the swine industry worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the economic costs in the two last CSF epidemics (1997 and 2001) reached jointly more than 108 million euros. The present analysis suggests that severe CSF epidemics are associated with significant economic costs, approximately 80% of which are related to animal culling. Direct costs associated with control measures are strongly associated with the number of infected farms, while indirect costs are more strongly associated with epidemic duration. The economic model has been validated with economic information around the last outbreaks in Spain. These results suggest that our economic module may be useful for analysing and predicting economic consequences of livestock disease epidemics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Electricity of the future: a worldwide challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Ladoucette, Ph.; Chevalier, J.M.; Barbaso, F.; Becache, P.; Belmans, P.; Brottes, F.; Chevet, P.F.; Chone, F.; David, A.; Delorme, Ph.; Hadjsaid, N.; Jalabert, M.; Julliard, Y.; Kott, B.; Lenoir, J.C.; Lewiner, C.; Maillard, D.; Moisan, F.; Pelletier, Ph.; Poniatowski, L.; Rozes, St.; Rytoft, C.; Sanchez Jimenez, M.; Seyrling, G.; Vu, A.

    2010-01-01

    The increase of power consumption, the development of renewable energy sources and the emergence of new usages like the electric-powered car are as many challenges that put the reliability and the reactivity of our power grids to the test. These grids have to change to become 'intelligent' thanks to the integration of new information and communication technologies over the overall supply chain, from the energy generation to its end use by consumers. For the first time in France, the actors of this change explain their opinion about this revolution and put it in perspective with its full extent and complexity. Changing power grids to make them intelligent is first of all a technical challenge but also a society challenge: the consumer will become an actor involved in the mastery of his energy demand and a renewable energy producer capable to interact with the grid in an increasing manner. This worldwide change that we are going to be the witnesses comes up against numerous obstacles. The aim of this book is to examine the determining factors of the success of this large scale change through its technical, economical and social dimensions. It shows that the emergence of such an advanced power system cannot be possible neither without the reconciliation between some contradictory goals, nor without a strong coordination between the actors. Content: Part 1 - intelligent power networks to answer the 21. century challenges: 1 - the European and French dimension of the electric power sector; 2 - towards a carbon-free economy; 3 - a power grid facing new challenges; 4 - the pre-figuration of intelligent power grids; 5 - the deployment of intelligent (smart) grids; Part 2 - perspectives of smart grids development: 1 - the future of power networks; 2 - a new industrial era; Part 3 - the consumer's position in the deployment of future grids: 1 - changing behaviours; 2 - making the consumer a 'consum'actor'. Synthesis and conclusion. (J.S.)

  16. Application of epidemic algorithms for smart grids control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krkoleva, Aleksandra

    2012-01-01

    Smart Grids are a new concept for electricity networks development, aiming to provide economically efficient and sustainable power system by integrating effectively the actions and needs of the network users. The thesis addresses the Smart Grids concept, with emphasis on the control strategies developed on the basis of epidemic algorithms, more specifically, gossip algorithms. The thesis is developed around three Smart grid aspects: the changed role of consumers in terms of taking part in providing services within Smart Grids; the possibilities to implement decentralized control strategies based on distributed algorithms; and information exchange and benefits emerging from implementation of information and communication technologies. More specifically, the thesis presents a novel approach for providing ancillary services by implementing gossip algorithms. In a decentralized manner, by exchange of information between the consumers and by making decisions on local level, based on the received information and local parameters, the group achieves its global objective, i. e. providing ancillary services. The thesis presents an overview of the Smart Grids control strategies with emphasises on new strategies developed for the most promising Smart Grids concepts, as Micro grids and Virtual power plants. The thesis also presents the characteristics of epidemic algorithms and possibilities for their implementation in Smart Grids. Based on the research on epidemic algorithms, two applications have been developed. These applications are the main outcome of the research. The first application enables consumers, represented by their commercial aggregators, to participate in load reduction and consequently, to participate in balancing market or reduce the balancing costs of the group. In this context, the gossip algorithms are used for aggregator's message dissemination for load reduction and households and small commercial and industrial consumers to participate in maintaining

  17. Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  18. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  19. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  20. Spatiotemporal modelling and mapping of the bubonic plague epidemic in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christakos George

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This work studies the spatiotemporal evolution of bubonic plague in India during 1896–1906 using stochastic concepts and geographical information science techniques. In the past, most investigations focused on selected cities to conduct different kinds of studies, such as the ecology of rats. No detailed maps existed incorporating the space-time dependence structure and uncertainty sources of the epidemic system and providing a composite space-time picture of the disease propagation characteristics. Results Informative spatiotemporal maps were generated that represented mortality rates and geographical spread of the disease, and epidemic indicator plots were derived that offered meaningful characterizations of the spatiotemporal disease distribution. The bubonic plague in India exhibited strong seasonal and geographical features. During its entire duration, the plague continued to invade new geographical areas, while it followed a re-emergence pattern at many localities; its rate changed significantly during each year and the mortality distribution exhibited space-time heterogeneous patterns; prevalence usually occurred in the autumn and spring, whereas the plague stopped moving towards new locations during the summers. Conclusion Modern stochastic modelling and geographical information science provide powerful means to study the spatiotemporal distribution of the bubonic plague epidemic under conditions of uncertainty and multi-sourced databases; to account for various forms of interdisciplinary knowledge; and to generate informative space-time maps of mortality rates and propagation patterns. To the best of our knowledge, this kind of plague maps and plots become available for the first time, thus providing novel perspectives concerning the distribution and space-time propagation of the deadly epidemic. Furthermore, systematic maps and indicator plots make possible the comparison of the spatial-temporal propagation

  1. The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet L Mills

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

  2. EU and worldwide geothermal energy inventory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2005-01-01

    Based on the world geothermal congress of April 2005, this document puts the different applications of this sector into perspective. At the end of 2004, the installed electrical capacity in European Union countries amounted to 822,1 MWe and thermal capacity to 6589,8 MWth (including 4531 MWth of heat pumps). Statistics on the geothermal energy situation and distribution are presented and analyzed. A comparison between current trend and white paper objectives is also provided. (A.L.B.)

  3. Generalized epidemic process on modular networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kihong; Baek, Yongjoo; Kim, Daniel; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2014-05-01

    Social reinforcement and modular structure are two salient features observed in the spreading of behavior through social contacts. In order to investigate the interplay between these two features, we study the generalized epidemic process on modular networks with equal-sized finite communities and adjustable modularity. Using the analytical approach originally applied to clique-based random networks, we show that the system exhibits a bond-percolation type continuous phase transition for weak social reinforcement, whereas a discontinuous phase transition occurs for sufficiently strong social reinforcement. Our findings are numerically verified using the finite-size scaling analysis and the crossings of the bimodality coefficient.

  4. CHEMICAL VERSUS SERUM TREATMENT OF EPIDEMIC MENINGITIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flexner, S; Amoss, H L

    1916-05-01

    Claims of efficiency have been made at two widely separated periods for the chemical treatment of epidemic meningitis, in the first instance for lysol and in the second for protargol. The use of lysol was long since abandoned; the recommendation for protargol is based on a single series of cases, small in number. Because of the variable severity of epidemics of meningitis, small reliance can be placed on results of treatment limited in extent to small numbers of cases and to one locality. A more uniform and accurate measure of the value of a method of treatment is provided by animals infected experimentally with pathogenic cultures of meningococci. Young guinea pigs respond in a definite manner to intraperitoneal inoculation of virulent meningococci. Neither protargol nor lysol proved to have any curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. Monkeys respond in a characteristic manner to the inoculation of virulent cultures into the subarachnoid space. Protargol displayed no curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. On the contrary, both lysol and protargol exert antileukotactic and antiphagocytic effects, and are also potent protoplasmic poisons, and the leukocytes with which they come in contact are injured and made to degenerate. According to the extent to which these harmful properties are exerted, the chemicals promote the advance rather than restrain the progress of meningococcic infection. Recovery from meningococcic infection in man and animals is accomplished chiefly through the process of phagocytosis. The specific antiserum acts curatively by increasing the emigration of leukocytes, by promoting phagocytosis directly, and by agglutinating the meningococci, and also by neutralizing endotoxin. Any means which interfere with and reduce these essential processes retard or prevent recovery. Both lysol and protargol interfere with and diminish the emigration of leukocytes and the phagocytosis

  5. Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2018-03-01

    We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  7. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

  8. Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

    2017-01-01

    Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

  9. Spatio-temporal variation in prevalence of Rift Valley fever: a post-epidemic serum survey in cattle and wildlife in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lwande, Olivia Wesula; Paul, George Omondi; Chiyo, Patrick I; Ng'ang'a, Eliud; Otieno, Viola; Obanda, Vincent; Evander, Magnus

    2015-01-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a fatal arthropod-borne zoonotic disease of livestock and humans. Since the identification of RVF in Kenya in the 1930s, repeated epizootics and epidemics coinciding with El Niño events have occurred in several locations in Africa and Saudi Arabia, causing mass deaths of livestock and humans. RVF is of great interest worldwide because of its negative effect on international livestock trade and its potential to spread globally. The latter is due to the increasing incidence of extreme climatic phenomena caused by global warming, as well as to the increase in global trade and international travel. How RVF is maintained and sustained between epidemics and epizootics is not clearly understood, but it has been speculated that wildlife reservoirs and trans-ovarian transmission in the vector may be important. Several studies have examined the role of wildlife and livestock in isolation or in a limited geographical location within the one country over a short time (usually less than a year). In this study, we examined the seroprevalence of anti-RVF antibodies in cattle and several wildlife species from several locations in Kenya over an inter-epidemic period spanning up to 7 years. A serological survey of immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to RVF using competitive ELISA was undertaken on 297 serum samples from different wildlife species at various locations in Kenya. The samples were collected between 2008 and 2015. Serum was also collected in 2014 from 177 cattle from Ol Pejeta Conservancy; 113 of the cattle were in close contact with wildlife and the other 64 were kept separate from buffalo and large game by an electric fence. The seroprevalence of RVF virus (RVFV) antibody was 11.6% in wildlife species during the study period. Cattle that could come in contact with wildlife and large game were all negative for RVFV. The seroprevalence was relatively high in elephants, rhinoceros, and buffalo, but there were no antibodies in zebras, baboons

  10. Spatio-temporal variation in prevalence of Rift Valley fever: a post-epidemic serum survey in cattle and wildlife in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivia Wesula Lwande

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF is a fatal arthropod-borne zoonotic disease of livestock and humans. Since the identification of RVF in Kenya in the 1930s, repeated epizootics and epidemics coinciding with El Niño events have occurred in several locations in Africa and Saudi Arabia, causing mass deaths of livestock and humans. RVF is of great interest worldwide because of its negative effect on international livestock trade and its potential to spread globally. The latter is due to the increasing incidence of extreme climatic phenomena caused by global warming, as well as to the increase in global trade and international travel. How RVF is maintained and sustained between epidemics and epizootics is not clearly understood, but it has been speculated that wildlife reservoirs and trans-ovarian transmission in the vector may be important. Several studies have examined the role of wildlife and livestock in isolation or in a limited geographical location within the one country over a short time (usually less than a year. In this study, we examined the seroprevalence of anti-RVF antibodies in cattle and several wildlife species from several locations in Kenya over an inter-epidemic period spanning up to 7 years. Methods: A serological survey of immunoglobulin G (IgG antibodies to RVF using competitive ELISA was undertaken on 297 serum samples from different wildlife species at various locations in Kenya. The samples were collected between 2008 and 2015. Serum was also collected in 2014 from 177 cattle from Ol Pejeta Conservancy; 113 of the cattle were in close contact with wildlife and the other 64 were kept separate from buffalo and large game by an electric fence. Results: The seroprevalence of RVF virus (RVFV antibody was 11.6% in wildlife species during the study period. Cattle that could come in contact with wildlife and large game were all negative for RVFV. The seroprevalence was relatively high in elephants, rhinoceros, and buffalo, but

  11. Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: a spectral method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Samuel P C; Tildesley, Michael J; Keeling, Matthew J

    2015-04-07

    Spatial structure and hence the spatial position of host populations plays a vital role in the spread of infection. In the majority of situations, it is only possible to predict the spatial spread of infection using simulation models, which can be computationally demanding especially for large population sizes. Here we develop an approximation method that vastly reduces this computational burden. We assume that the transmission rates between individuals or sub-populations are determined by a spatial transmission kernel. This kernel is assumed to be isotropic, such that the transmission rate is simply a function of the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals; as such this provides the ideal mechanism for modelling localised transmission in a spatial environment. We show that the spatial force of infection acting on all susceptibles can be represented as a spatial convolution between the transmission kernel and a spatially extended 'image' of the infection state. This representation allows the rapid calculation of stochastic rates of infection using fast-Fourier transform (FFT) routines, which greatly improves the computational efficiency of spatial simulations. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of this fast spectral rate recalculation (FSR) method with two examples: an idealised scenario simulating an SIR-type epidemic outbreak amongst N habitats distributed across a two-dimensional plane; the spread of infection between US cattle farms, illustrating that the FSR method makes continental-scale outbreak forecasting feasible with desktop processing power. The latter model demonstrates which areas of the US are at consistently high risk for cattle-infections, although predictions of epidemic size are highly dependent on assumptions about the tail of the transmission kernel. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Epidemic spreading in networks with nonrandom long-range interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Ernesto; Kalala-Mutombo, Franck; Valverde-Colmeiro, Alba

    2011-09-01

    An “infection,” understood here in a very broad sense, can be propagated through the network of social contacts among individuals. These social contacts include both “close” contacts and “casual” encounters among individuals in transport, leisure, shopping, etc. Knowing the first through the study of the social networks is not a difficult task, but having a clear picture of the network of casual contacts is a very hard problem in a society of increasing mobility. Here we assume, on the basis of several pieces of empirical evidence, that the casual contacts between two individuals are a function of their social distance in the network of close contacts. Then, we assume that we know the network of close contacts and infer the casual encounters by means of nonrandom long-range (LR) interactions determined by the social proximity of the two individuals. This approach is then implemented in a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model accounting for the spread of infections in complex networks. A parameter called “conductance” controls the feasibility of those casual encounters. In a zero conductance network only contagion through close contacts is allowed. As the conductance increases the probability of having casual encounters also increases. We show here that as the conductance parameter increases, the rate of propagation increases dramatically and the infection is less likely to die out. This increment is particularly marked in networks with scale-free degree distributions, where infections easily become epidemics. Our model provides a general framework for studying epidemic spreading in networks with arbitrary topology with and without casual contacts accounted for by means of LR interactions.

  13. Epidemic spreading in networks with nonrandom long-range interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Ernesto; Kalala-Mutombo, Franck; Valverde-Colmeiro, Alba

    2011-09-01

    An "infection," understood here in a very broad sense, can be propagated through the network of social contacts among individuals. These social contacts include both "close" contacts and "casual" encounters among individuals in transport, leisure, shopping, etc. Knowing the first through the study of the social networks is not a difficult task, but having a clear picture of the network of casual contacts is a very hard problem in a society of increasing mobility. Here we assume, on the basis of several pieces of empirical evidence, that the casual contacts between two individuals are a function of their social distance in the network of close contacts. Then, we assume that we know the network of close contacts and infer the casual encounters by means of nonrandom long-range (LR) interactions determined by the social proximity of the two individuals. This approach is then implemented in a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model accounting for the spread of infections in complex networks. A parameter called "conductance" controls the feasibility of those casual encounters. In a zero conductance network only contagion through close contacts is allowed. As the conductance increases the probability of having casual encounters also increases. We show here that as the conductance parameter increases, the rate of propagation increases dramatically and the infection is less likely to die out. This increment is particularly marked in networks with scale-free degree distributions, where infections easily become epidemics. Our model provides a general framework for studying epidemic spreading in networks with arbitrary topology with and without casual contacts accounted for by means of LR interactions.

  14. Canine parvovirus: the worldwide occurrence of antigenic variants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Carla; Thompson, Gertrude

    2016-09-01

    The most important enteric virus infecting canids is canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2). CPV is the aetiologic agent of a contagious disease, mainly characterized by clinical gastroenteritis signs in younger dogs. CPV-2 emerged as a new virus in the late 1970s, which could infect domestic dogs, and became distributed in the global dog population within 2 years. A few years later, the virus's original type was replaced by a new genetic and antigenic variant, called CPV-2a. Around 1984 and 2000, virus variants with the single change to Asp or Glu in the VP2 residue 426 were detected (sometimes termed CPV-2b and -2c). The genetic and antigenic changes in the variants have also been correlated with changes in their host range; in particular, in the ability to replicate in cats and also host range differences in canine and other tissue culture cells. CPV-2 variants have been circulating among wild carnivores and have been well-documented in several countries around the world. Here, we have reviewed and summarized the current information about the worldwide distribution and evolution of CPV-2 variants since they emerged, as well as the host ranges they are associated with.

  15. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  16. Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

    2014-11-13

    Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

  17. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

  18. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  19. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  20. A worldwide fuel strategy by AREVA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bordy, Michel

    2004-01-01

    Operating as a global company, inside AREVA the Fuel Sector implements a common strategy among three Business Units of fuel activities. These Business Units which are in Framatome ANP Zirconium, Manufacturing and Design and Sales Units, are operated in Germany (former Siemens activity), in USA (former BWFC Babcock and Wilcox Fuel Co,. and SPC Siemens Power Co. activities), in Belgium and in France (former Framatome activity). They have resources and facilities which are cooperatively working on R and D, engineering, project management, sales and services to achieve synergy on a cross-business basis. Based on its experience of worldwide activities and taking advantage of its diversified fuel design knowledge, Framatome ANP proposes a full range of fuel products and services on the BWR and PWR markets. With the ability to supply all fuel assembly arrays and fuel pellet types, supplemented by the range of stationary and movable core components, and completed by a full-range of on-site fuel services and performance of fuel packing and delivery, Framatome ANP is positioned as a major participant on the world fuel market. Today, Framatome ANP takes advantage of the cross-fertilization in the short term of existing products which include four original PWR fuel designs of HTP TM alloy as the reference material for cladding tubes, guide thimbles, and grids, -- Gradual incorporation of the valuable high-stiffiness MONOBLOC tM guide thimble, -- Progressive integressive integration of the High Mechanical Performance (HMP) Inconel end grid, -- Planned standardization of mechanical components such as nozzles, holddown systems and top and bottom connections. As a continuation of its existing technology, Framatome ANP is developing improved technical features within the scope of the Alliance fuel assembly qualification program. With an irradiation program ranging up to a burnup of 70 MWd/kgU expected to be reached in 2006, Alliance shows excellent behaviour with very low corrosion

  1. Radiation safety and vascular access: attitudes among cardiologists worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidovich, Mladen I., E-mail: miv@uic.edu [Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Khan, Asrar A. [Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Xie, Hui [Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Cancer Center, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Shroff, Adhir R. [Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (United States)

    2015-03-15

    Objectives: To determine opinions and perceptions of interventional cardiologists on the topic of radiation and vascular access choice. Background: Transradial approach for cardiac catheterization has been increasing in popularity worldwide. There is evidence that transradial access (TRA) may be associated with increasing radiation doses compared to transfemoral access (TFA). Methods: We distributed a questionnaire to collect opinions of interventional cardiologists around the world. Results: Interventional cardiologists (n = 5332) were contacted by email to complete an on-line survey from September to October 2013. The response rate was 20% (n = 1084). TRA was used in 54% of percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs). Most TRAs (80%) were performed with right radial access (RRA). Interventionalists perceived that TRA was associated with higher radiation exposure compared to TFA and that RRA was associated with higher radiation exposure that left radial access (LRA). Older interventionalists were more likely to use radiation protection equipment and those who underwent radiation safety training gave more importance to ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable). Nearly half the respondents stated they would perform more TRA if the radiation exposure was similar to TFA. While interventionalists in the United States placed less importance to certain radiation protective equipment, European operators were more concerned with physician and patient radiation. Conclusions: Interventionalists worldwide reported higher perceived radiation doses with TRA compared to TFA and RRA compared to LRA. Efforts should be directed toward encouraging consistent radiation safety training. Major investment and application of novel radiation protection tools and radiation dose reduction strategies should be pursued. - Highlights: • We examined radiation safety and arterial access practices among 1000 cardiologists. • Radial access is perceived as having higher radiation dose compared to

  2. 1991 worldwide natural gas industry directory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This book provides information for the natural gas industry, just as other PennWell directories have for the petroleum industry. Comprehensive in scope, each company listing includes address, phone, fax telex and cable numbers, key personnel, subsidiaries, branches and brief descriptions. The directory is organized in major areas of operation and includes sections on: Distribution, Drilling/Exploration/Production, Gas Utilities, Gathering/Transmission, Industry Associations/Organizations, LNG, LPG, Marketing, Processing, Regulatory Agencies, and Service, Supply and Manufacturers. An invaluable reference source for the natural gas professional

  3. The opioid overdose epidemic: opportunities for pharmacists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu LT

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Li-Tzy Wu,1–4 Udi E Ghitza,5 Anne L Burns,6 Paolo Mannelli,1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, 2Department of Medicine, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, 4Center for Child and Family Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, 5Center for Clinical Trials Network, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD, 6American Pharmacists Association, Washington, DC, USA The USA is experiencing an opioid overdose epidemic. It has been driven largely by prescription opioids and intensified by a surge of illicit opioids (e.g., heroin and fentanyl.1,2 Drug-involved overdose, mainly opioids (e.g., prescription opioids and heroin, is a leading cause of accidental death in the USA. The opioid overdose epidemic has been escalating consistently for over a decade.2 Every day, an estimated 91 Americans die from opioid-related overdose.3 Opioid overdose appears to have disproportionally affected men, adults aged 25–64 years, and non-Hispanic whites.2

  4. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2011-01-01

    Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection) while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment). For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  5. [The cholera epidemic in Latin America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsvik, O

    1992-05-30

    An outbreak of cholera started in Peru in January 1991 and spread through most Latin American countries within a year. This was the first known epidemic of cholera in America for more than a century. In 1991, 321,334 persons were reported to have cholera in Peru, 119,063 were hospitalized, and 2,906 died. Other countries like Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Chile, El Salvador, Venezuela and Honduras were also affected, but these countries combined accounted for only 20% of the cases registered in Peru. In April 1992, all Latin American countries except Uruguay, Paraguay and French Guyana have reported cholera. The mortality rate for the epidemic in Latin America was only 1%, mainly owing to good oral rehydration treatment provided by Local health services and the Pan American Health Organization. The causative organism was Vibrio cholerae, serogroup O1, serotype Inaba (and Ogawa) of the El Tor biotype. Genetic characterization shows this strain to be unique, and the designation is reserved for the Latin American strain, distinguishing it from the other El Tor isolates from the 7th pandemic.

  6. Devastating epidemics in recent ages Greek populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsiou, Antonia; Michalaki, Vasiliki; Anagnostopoulou, Helen N

    2017-12-01

    In the recent Greek ages the most devastating epidemics were plague, smallpox, leprosy and cholera. In 1816 plague struck the Ionian and Aegean Islands, mainland Greece, Constantinople and Smyrna. The Venetians ruling the Ionian Islands effectively combated plague in contrast to the Ottomans ruling all other regions. In 1922, plague appeared in Patras refugees who were expelled by the Turks from Smyrna and Asia Minor. Inoculation against smallpox was first performed in Thessaly by the Greek women, and the Greek doctors Emmanouel Timonis (1713, Oxford) and Jakovos Pylarinos (1715, Venice) made relevant scientific publications. The first leper colony opened in Chios Island. In Crete, Spinalonga was transformed into a leper island, which following the Independence War against Turkish occupation and the unification of Crete with Greece in 1913, was classified as an International Leper Hospital. Cholera struck Greece in 1853-1854 brought by the French troops during the Crimean War, and again during the Balkan Wars (1912-13) when the Bulgarian troops brought cholera to northern Greece. Due to successive wars, medical assistance was not always available, so desperate people turned many times to religion through processions in honor of local saints, for their salvation in epidemics.

  7. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martial L Ndeffo Mbah

    Full Text Available Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment. For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  8. America's Opioid Epidemic: Supply and Demand Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J; Schumacher, Mark A

    2017-11-01

    America is in the midst of an opioid epidemic characterized by aggressive prescribing practices, highly prevalent opioid misuse, and rising rates of prescription and illicit opioid overdose-related deaths. Medical and lay public sentiment have become more cautious with respect to prescription opioid use in the past few years, but a comprehensive strategy to reduce our reliance on prescription opioids is lacking. Addressing this epidemic through reductions in unnecessary access to these drugs while implementing measures to reduce demand will be important components of any comprehensive solution. Key supply-side measures include avoiding overprescribing, reducing diversion, and discouraging misuse through changes in drug formulations. Important demand-side measures center around educating patients and clinicians regarding the pitfalls of opioid overuse and methods to avoid unnecessary exposure to these drugs. Anesthesiologists, by virtue of their expertise in the use of these drugs and their position in guiding opioid use around the time of surgery, have important roles to play in reducing patient exposure to opioids and providing education about appropriate use. Aside from the many immediate steps that can be taken, clinical and basic research directed at understanding the interaction between pain and opioid misuse is critical to identifying the optimal use of these powerful pain relievers in clinical practice.

  9. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katayoun Farrahi

    Full Text Available Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  10. Modelling the dynamics of nonendemic epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramani, A.; Grammaticos, B.; Satsuma, J.

    2009-01-01

    We present two models for an epidemic where the individuals are infective over a fixed period of time and which never becomes endemic i.e., no infective individuals remain after the epidemic has run its course. The first model is based on a delay-difference scheme. We show that, as a function of the delay (which corresponds to the period of infectiveness) the percentage of non-infected population varies over a wide range. We present also a variant of our model where the recovery rate follows a Poisson law and obtain a discrete version of the SIR model. We estimate the percentage of non-infected population in the two models, show that they lead to almost the same values and present an explanation of this fact. The second model is based on the assumption that the infection is spread by carriers. Under the hypothesis that the carriers are relatively long-lived, and that the number of the infected ones is a relatively small fraction of the total population of potential carriers, we show that the model reduces to the same version of the discrete SIR obtained by our first model.

  11. Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

    2016-04-01

    We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

  12. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrahi, Katayoun; Emonet, Rémi; Cebrian, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  13. Colliding Epidemics and the Rise of Cryptococcosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina C. Chang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Discovered more than 100 years ago as a human pathogen, the Cryptococcus neoformans–Cryptococcus gattii (C. neoformans–C. gattii complex has seen a large global resurgence in its association with clinical disease in the last 30 years. First isolated in fermenting peach juice, and identified as a human pathogen in 1894 in a patient with bone lesions, this environmental pathogen has now found niches in soil, trees, birds, and domestic pets. Cryptococcosis is well recognized as an opportunistic infection and was first noted to be associated with reticuloendothelial cancers in the 1950s. Since then, advances in transplant immunology, medical science and surgical techniques have led to increasing numbers of solid organ transplantations (SOT and hematological stem cell transplantations being performed, and the use of biological immunotherapeutics in increasingly high-risk and older individuals, have contributed to the further rise in cryptococcosis. Globally, however, the major driver for revivification of cryptococcosis is undoubtedly the HIV epidemic, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where access to care and antiretroviral therapy remains limited and advanced immunodeficiency, poverty and malnutrition remains the norm. As a zoonotic disease, environmental outbreaks of both human and animal cryptococcosis have been reported, possibly driven by climate change. This is best exemplified by the resurgence of C. gattii infection in Vancouver Island, Canada, and the Pacific Northwest of the United States since 1999. Here we describe how the colliding epidemics of HIV, transplantation and immunologics, climate change and migration have contributed to the rise of cryptococcosis.

  14. Epidemic impacts of a community empowerment intervention for HIV prevention among female sex workers in generalized and concentrated epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirtz, Andrea L; Pretorius, Carel; Beyrer, Chris; Baral, Stefan; Decker, Michele R; Sherman, Susan G; Sweat, Michael; Poteat, Tonia; Butler, Jennifer; Oelrichs, Robert; Semini, Iris; Kerrigan, Deanna

    2014-01-01

    Sex workers have endured a high burden of HIV infection in and across HIV epidemics. A comprehensive, community empowerment-based HIV prevention intervention emphasizes sex worker organization and mobilization to address HIV risk and often includes community-led peer education, condom distribution, and other activities. Meta-analysis of such interventions suggests a potential 51% reduction in inconsistent condom use. Mathematical modeling exercises provide theoretical insight into potential impacts of the intervention on HIV incidence and burden in settings where interventions have not yet been implemented. We used a deterministic model, Goals, to project the impact on HIV infections when the community empowerment interventions were scaled up among female sex workers in Kenya, Thailand, Brazil, and Ukraine. Modeling scenarios included expansion of the comprehensive community empowerment-based HIV prevention intervention from baseline coverage over a 5-year period (5-65% in Kenya and Ukraine; 10-70% in Thailand and Brazil), while other interventions were held at baseline levels. A second exercise increased the intervention coverage simultaneously with equitable access to ART for sex workers. Impacts on HIV outcomes among sex workers and adults are observed from 2012-2016 and, compared to status quo when all interventions are held constant. Optimistic but feasible coverage (65%-70%) of the intervention demonstrated a range of impacts on HIV: 220 infections averted over 5 yrs. among sex workers in Thailand, 1,830 in Brazil, 2,220 in Ukraine, and 10,800 infections in Kenya. Impacts of the intervention for female sex workers extend to the adult population, cumulatively averting 730 infections in Thailand to 20,700 adult infections in Kenya. Impacts vary by country, influenced by HIV prevalence in risk groups, risk behaviors, intervention use, and population size. A community empowerment approach to HIV prevention and access to universal ART for female sex workers is a

  15. A database of worldwide glacier thickness observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gärtner-Roer, I.; Naegeli, K.; Huss, M.

    2014-01-01

    One of the grand challenges in glacier research is to assess the total ice volume and its global distribution. Over the past few decades the compilation of a world glacier inventory has been well-advanced both in institutional set-up and in spatial coverage. The inventory is restricted to glacier...... the different estimation approaches. This initial database of glacier and ice caps thickness will hopefully be further enlarged and intensively used for a better understanding of the global glacier ice volume and its distribution....... surface observations. However, although thickness has been observed on many glaciers and ice caps around the globe, it has not yet been published in the shape of a readily available database. Here, we present a standardized database of glacier thickness observations compiled by an extensive literature...... review and from airborne data extracted from NASA's Operation IceBridge. This database contains ice thickness observations from roughly 1100 glaciers and ice caps including 550 glacier-wide estimates and 750,000 point observations. A comparison of these observational ice thicknesses with results from...

  16. Genetic and phylogenetic evolution of HIV-1 in a low subtype heterogeneity epidemic: the Italian example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tornesello Maria

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1 is classified into genetic groups, subtypes and sub-subtypes which show a specific geographic distribution pattern. The HIV-1 epidemic in Italy, as in most of the Western Countries, has traditionally affected the Intra-venous drug user (IDU and Homosexual (Homo risk groups and has been sustained by the genetic B subtype. In the last years, however, the HIV-1 transmission rate among heterosexuals has dramatically increased, becoming the prevalent transmission route. In fact, while the traditional risk groups have high levels of knowledge and avoid high-risk practices, the heterosexuals do not sufficiently perceive the risk of HIV-1 infection. This misperception, linked to the growing number of immigrants from non-Western Countries, where non-B clades and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs are prevalent, is progressively introducing HIV-1 variants of non-B subtype in the Italian epidemic. This is in agreement with reports from other Western European Countries. In this context, the Italian HIV-1 epidemic is still characterized by low subtype heterogeneity and represents a paradigmatic example of the European situation. The continuous molecular evolution of the B subtype HIV-1 isolates, characteristic of a long-lasting epidemic, together with the introduction of new subtypes as well as recombinant forms may have significant implications for diagnostic, treatment, and vaccine development. The study and monitoring of the genetic evolution of the HIV-1 represent, therefore, an essential strategy for controlling the local as well as global HIV-1 epidemic and for developing efficient preventive and therapeutic strategies.

  17. Statistics of Epidemics in Networks by Passing Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Munik Kumar

    Epidemic processes are common out-of-equilibrium phenomena of broad interdisciplinary interest. In this thesis, we show how message-passing approach can be a helpful tool for simulating epidemic models in disordered medium like networks, and in particular for estimating the probability that a given node will become infectious at a particular time. The sort of dynamics we consider are stochastic, where randomness can arise from the stochastic events or from the randomness of network structures. As in belief propagation, variables or messages in message-passing approach are defined on the directed edges of a network. However, unlike belief propagation, where the posterior distributions are updated according to Bayes' rule, in message-passing approach we write differential equations for the messages over time. It takes correlations between neighboring nodes into account while preventing causal signals from backtracking to their immediate source, and thus avoids "echo chamber effects" where a pair of adjacent nodes each amplify the probability that the other is infectious. In our first results, we develop a message-passing approach to threshold models of behavior popular in sociology. These are models, first proposed by Granovetter, where individuals have to hear about a trend or behavior from some number of neighbors before adopting it themselves. In thermodynamic limit of large random networks, we provide an exact analytic scheme while calculating the time dependence of the probabilities and thus learning about the whole dynamics of bootstrap percolation, which is a simple model known in statistical physics for exhibiting discontinuous phase transition. As an application, we apply a similar model to financial networks, studying when bankruptcies spread due to the sudden devaluation of shared assets in overlapping portfolios. We predict that although diversification may be good for individual institutions, it can create dangerous systemic effects, and as a result

  18. Lecture 7: Worldwide LHC Computing Grid Overview

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This presentation will introduce in an informal, but technically correct way the challenges that are linked to the needs of massively distributed computing architectures in the context of the LHC offline computing. The topics include technological and organizational aspects touching many aspects of LHC computing, from data access, to maintenance of large databases and huge collections of files, to the organization of computing farms and monitoring. Fabrizio Furano holds a Ph.D in Computer Science and has worked in the field of Computing for High Energy Physics for many years. Some of his preferred topics include application architectures, system design and project management, with focus on performance and scalability of data access. Fabrizio has experience in a wide variety of environments, from private companies to academic research in particular in object oriented methodologies, mainly using C++. He has also teaching experience at university level in Software Engineering and C++ Programming.

  19. Mutually cooperative epidemics on power-law networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Peng-Bi; Colaiori, Francesca; Castellano, Claudio

    2017-08-01

    The spread of an infectious disease can, in some cases, promote the propagation of other pathogens favoring violent outbreaks, which cause a discontinuous transition to an endemic state. The topology of the contact network plays a crucial role in these cooperative dynamics. We consider a susceptible-infected-removed-type model with two mutually cooperative pathogens: An individual already infected with one disease has an increased probability of getting infected by the other. We present a heterogeneous mean-field theoretical approach to the coinfection dynamics on generic uncorrelated power-law degree-distributed networks and validate its results by means of numerical simulations. We show that, when the second moment of the degree distribution is finite, the epidemic transition is continuous for low cooperativity, while it is discontinuous when cooperativity is sufficiently high. For scale-free networks, i.e., topologies with diverging second moment, the transition is instead always continuous. In this way we clarify the effect of heterogeneity and system size on the nature of the transition, and we validate the physical interpretation about the origin of the discontinuity.

  20. [Epidemics and pandemics in general practice. What can we learn from the swine flu (H1N1) and EHEC outbreak?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisele, M; Hansen, H; Wagner, H-O; von Leitner, E; Pohontsch, N; Scherer, M

    2014-06-01

    As primary care givers with a coordinating function, general practitioners (GP) play a key role in dealing with epidemics and pandemics. As of yet, there are no studies in Germany describing the difficulties experienced by GPs in patient care during epidemics/pandemics. This study aimed at identifying the problem areas in GPs' patient care during the H1N1 and EHEC (enterohemorrhagic strain of Escherichia coli) outbreaks. With this information, recommendations for guaranteeing proper patient care during future epidemics/pandemics can be derived. In all, 12 qualitative, semi-structured, open guideline interviews with GPs in Hamburg and Lübeck were conducted, transcribed, and evaluated with qualitative content analysis. Five areas in ambulatory patient care were identified in which changes are needed from the primary care perspective: provision of information for GPs, workload, financing of epidemic-related measures, organization of the practices, care of those taken ill. The workload of GPs in particular can and should be reduced through successful, centralized information distribution during epidemics/pandemics. The GP's function as a coordinator should be supported and consolidated, in order to relieve the in-patient sector in cases of an epidemic/pandemic. Secured financing of epidemic-associated measures can help ensure patient care.

  1. The origin and emergence of an HIV-1 epidemic:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne; Audelin, Anne M.; Helleberg, Marie

    2014-01-01

    To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic.......To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic....

  2. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  3. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

  4. [The cholera epidemic of 1833 and mortality in Mexico City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, M D

    1992-01-01

    The author examines the impact of the 1833 cholera epidemic in Mexico City, Mexico, on social, economic, and political aspects of life in that city. She finds that some five percent of the population died during the epidemic, and enumerates them by age and sex.

  5. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  6. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  7. On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

  8. The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

    2018-01-01

    Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

  9. Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

    2015-12-01

    Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

  10. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large

  11. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  12. Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis E C Rocha

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Sexual contact patterns, both in their temporal and network structure, can influence the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI. Most previous literature has focused on effects of network topology; few studies have addressed the role of temporal structure. We simulate disease spread using SI and SIR models on an empirical temporal network of sexual contacts in high-end prostitution. We compare these results with several other approaches, including randomization of the data, classic mean-field approaches, and static network simulations. We observe that epidemic dynamics in this contact structure have well-defined, rather high epidemic thresholds. Temporal effects create a broad distribution of outbreak sizes, even if the per-contact transmission probability is taken to its hypothetical maximum of 100%. In general, we conclude that the temporal correlations of our network accelerate outbreaks, especially in the early phase of the epidemics, while the network topology (apart from the contact-rate distribution slows them down. We find that the temporal correlations of sexual contacts can significantly change simulated outbreaks in a large empirical sexual network. Thus, temporal structures are needed alongside network topology to fully understand the spread of STIs. On a side note, our simulations further suggest that the specific type of commercial sex we investigate is not a reservoir of major importance for HIV.

  13. A Descriptive Overview of the Burden, Distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this study was to describe the distribution, magnitude and characteristics of recent epidemics in Uganda, as a basis for informing policy on priorities for targeted prevention of epidemics. Methods: Qualitative and quantitative data was collected from the Epidemiological Surveillance Division of the Ministry of ...

  14. Overview of glyphosate-resistant weeds worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heap, Ian; Duke, Stephen O

    2018-05-01

    Glyphosate is the most widely used and successful herbicide discovered to date, but its utility is now threatened by the occurrence of several glyphosate-resistant weed species. Glyphosate resistance first appeared in Lolium rigidum in an apple orchard in Australia in 1996, ironically the year that the first glyphosate-resistant crop (soybean) was introduced in the USA. Thirty-eight weed species have now evolved resistance to glyphosate, distributed across 37 countries and in 34 different crops and six non-crop situations. Although glyphosate-resistant weeds have been identified in orchards, vineyards, plantations, cereals, fallow and non-crop situations, it is the glyphosate-resistant weeds in glyphosate-resistant crop systems that dominate the area infested and growing economic impact. Glyphosate-resistant weeds present the greatest threat to sustained weed control in major agronomic crops because this herbicide is used to control weeds with resistance to herbicides with other sites of action, and no new herbicide sites of action have been introduced for over 30 years. Industry has responded by developing herbicide resistance traits in major crops that allow existing herbicides to be used in a new way. However, over reliance on these traits will result in multiple-resistance in weeds. Weed control in major crops is at a precarious point, where we must maintain the utility of the herbicides we have until we can transition to new weed management technologies. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  15. Historical Epidemics Cartography Generated by Spatial Analysis: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Three Medieval "Plagues" in Dijon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galanaud, Pierre; Galanaud, Anne; Giraudoux, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Objectives This work was designed to adapt Geographical Information System-based spatial analysis to the study of historical epidemics. We mapped "plague" deaths during three epidemics of the early 15th century, analyzed spatial distributions by applying the Kulldorff's method, and determined their relationships with the distribution of socio-professional categories in the city of Dijon. Materials and Methods Our study was based on a database including 50 annual tax registers (established from 1376 to 1447) indicating deaths and survivors among the heads of households, their home location, tax level and profession. The households of the deceased and survivors during 6 years with excess mortality were individually located on a georeferenced medieval map, established by taking advantage of the preserved geography of the historical center of Dijon. We searched for clusters of heads of households characterized by shared tax levels (high-tax payers, the upper decile; low-tax payers, the half charged at the minimum level) or professional activities and for clusters of differential mortality. Results High-tax payers were preferentially in the northern intramural part, as well as most wealthy or specialized professionals, whereas low-tax payers were preferentially in the southern part. During two epidemics, in 1400–1401 and 1428, areas of higher mortality were found in the northern part whereas areas of lower mortality were in the southern one. A high concentration of housing and the proximity to food stocks were common features of the most affected areas, creating suitable conditions for rats to pullulate. A third epidemic, lasting from 1438 to 1440 had a different and evolving geography: cases were initially concentrated around the southern gate, at the confluence of three rivers, they were then diffuse, and ended with residual foci of deaths in the northern suburb. Conclusion Using a selected historical source, we designed an approach allowing spatial analysis of

  16. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-08

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  17. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-01

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  18. Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne T A Enanoria

    Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

  19. Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

    2018-04-01

    Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

  20. The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eames, K T D

    2014-09-01

    The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.