The Unusual Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere Winter of 2002

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.

2003-01-01

The southern hemisphere stratospheric winter of 2002 was the most unusual winter yet observed in the southern hemisphere climate record. Temperatures near the edge of the Antarctic polar vortex were considerably warmer than normal over the entire course of the winter. The polar night jet was considerably weaker than normal, and was displaced more poleward than has been observed in previous winters. These record high temperatures and weak jet resulted from a series of wave events that took place over the course of the winter. The first large event occurred on 15 May, and the final warming occurred on 25 October. The propagation of these wave events from the troposphere is diagnosed from time series of Eliassen-Palm flux vectors. The wave events tended to occur irregularly over the course of the winter, and pre-conditioned the polar night jet for the extremely large wave event of 22 September. This large wave event resulted in the first ever observed major stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere. This wave event split the Antarctic ozone hole. The combined effect of the wave events of the 2002 winter resulted in the smallest ozone hole observed since 1988.

The Rapid Arctic Warming and Its Impact on East Asian Winter Weather in Recent Decade

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S. J.; Kim, B. M.; Kim, J. H.

2015-12-01

The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than the lower latitudes. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in winters of the recent decade, the cold-air outbreaks over East Asia occur more frequently and stronger than in 1990s. By accompanying the snow over East Asia, the strong cold surges have led to a severe socio-economic impact. Such severe cold surges in recent decade over east Asia is consistent with the more dominant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), that may be attributed by the Arctic amplification. In both observation-based reanalysis and numerical model experiments, the Arctic sea ice melting leads to the weakening of the AO polarity by reducing the meridional temperature gradient through a heat flux feedback. The Arctic warming and associated sea ice melting over the Kara-Barents area in late fall and early winter first release a lot of heat to the atmosphere from the ocean by a strong contrast in temperature and moisture and higher height anomaly is developed over the Kara/Barents and the Ural mountains The anomalous anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic strengthen the Siberian High and at the same time the east Asian trough is developed over the western coast of the North Pacific. Through the passage between the margin of the Siberian High and east Asian tough, an extremely cold air is transported from east Siberia to east Asia for sometimes more than a week. Such a severe sold air brings about the moisture from nearby ocean, largely influencing the daily lives and economy in north East China, Korea, and Japan. The recent Arctic and associated sea ice melting is not only contributed to the local climate and weather, but also a severe weather in mid-latitudes through a modulation in polar vortex.

Air mass exchange across the polar vortex edge during a simulated major stratospheric warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Günther

Full Text Available The dynamics of the polar vortex in winter and spring play an important role in explaining observed low ozone values. A quantification of physical and chemical processes is necessary to obtain information about natural and anthropogenic causes of fluctuations of ozone. This paper aims to contribute to answering the question of how permeable the polar vortex is. The transport into and out of the vortex ("degree of isolation" remains the subject of considerable debate. Based on the results of a three-dimensional mechanistic model of the middle atmosphere, the possibility of exchange of air masses across the polar vortex edge is investigated. Additionally the horizontal and vertical structure of the polar vortex is examined. The model simulation used for this study is related to the major stratospheric warming observed in February 1989. The model results show fair agreement with observed features of the major warming of 1989. Complex structures of the simulated polar vortex are illustrated by horizontal and vertical cross sections of potential vorticity and inert tracer. A three-dimensional view of the polar vortex enables a description of the vortex as a whole. During the simulation two vortices and an anticyclone, grouped together in a very stable tripolar structure, and a weaker, more amorphous anticyclone are formed. This leads to the generation of small-scale features. The results also indicate that the permeability of the vortex edges is low because the interior of the vortices remain isolated during the simulation.

Air mass exchange across the polar vortex edge during a simulated major stratospheric warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Günther

1995-07-01

Full Text Available The dynamics of the polar vortex in winter and spring play an important role in explaining observed low ozone values. A quantification of physical and chemical processes is necessary to obtain information about natural and anthropogenic causes of fluctuations of ozone. This paper aims to contribute to answering the question of how permeable the polar vortex is. The transport into and out of the vortex ("degree of isolation" remains the subject of considerable debate. Based on the results of a three-dimensional mechanistic model of the middle atmosphere, the possibility of exchange of air masses across the polar vortex edge is investigated. Additionally the horizontal and vertical structure of the polar vortex is examined. The model simulation used for this study is related to the major stratospheric warming observed in February 1989. The model results show fair agreement with observed features of the major warming of 1989. Complex structures of the simulated polar vortex are illustrated by horizontal and vertical cross sections of potential vorticity and inert tracer. A three-dimensional view of the polar vortex enables a description of the vortex as a whole. During the simulation two vortices and an anticyclone, grouped together in a very stable tripolar structure, and a weaker, more amorphous anticyclone are formed. This leads to the generation of small-scale features. The results also indicate that the permeability of the vortex edges is low because the interior of the vortices remain isolated during the simulation.

Terra Data Confirm Warm, Dry U.S. Winter

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

New maps of land surface temperature and snow cover produced by NASA's Terra satellite show this year's winter was warmer than last year's, and the snow line stayed farther north than normal. The observations confirm earlier National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that the United States was unusually warm and dry this past winter. (Click to read the NASA press release and to access higher-resolution images.) For the last two years, a new sensor aboard Terra has been collecting the most detailed global measurements ever made of our world's land surface temperatures and snow cover. The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is already giving scientists new insights into our changing planet. Average temperatures during December 2001 through February 2002 for the contiguous United States appear to have been unseasonably warm from the Rockies eastward. In the top image the coldest temperatures appear black, while dark green, blue, red, yellow, and white indicate progressively warmer temperatures. MODIS observes both land surface temperature and emissivity, which indicates how efficiently a surface absorbs and emits thermal radiation. Compared to the winter of 2000-01, temperatures throughout much of the U.S. were warmer in 2001-02. The bottom image depicts the differences on a scale from dark blue (colder this year than last) to red (warmer this year than last). A large region of warm temperatures dominated the northern Great Plains, while the area around the Great Salt Lake was a cold spot. Images courtesy Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC, based upon data courtesy Zhengming Wan, MODIS Land Science Team member at the University of California, Santa Barbara's Institute for Computational Earth System Science

Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Damm, Andrea; Greuell, Wouter; Landgren, Oskar; Prettenthaler, Franz

2017-01-01

Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons challenge the winter tourism industry. In this study the impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe's ski tourism related NUTS-3 regions are quantified. Using time series regression models, the relationship between

The responses of microbial temperature relationships to seasonal change and winter warming in a temperate grassland.

Science.gov (United States)

Birgander, Johanna; Olsson, Pål Axel; Rousk, Johannes

2018-01-18

Microorganisms dominate the decomposition of organic matter and their activities are strongly influenced by temperature. As the carbon (C) flux from soil to the atmosphere due to microbial activity is substantial, understanding temperature relationships of microbial processes is critical. It has been shown that microbial temperature relationships in soil correlate with the climate, and microorganisms in field experiments become more warm-tolerant in response to chronic warming. It is also known that microbial temperature relationships reflect the seasons in aquatic ecosystems, but to date this has not been investigated in soil. Although climate change predictions suggest that temperatures will be mostly affected during winter in temperate ecosystems, no assessments exist of the responses of microbial temperature relationships to winter warming. We investigated the responses of the temperature relationships of bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in a temperate grassland to seasonal change, and to 2 years' winter warming. The warming treatments increased winter soil temperatures by 5-6°C, corresponding to 3°C warming of the mean annual temperature. Microbial temperature relationships and temperature sensitivities (Q 10 ) could be accurately established, but did not respond to winter warming or to seasonal temperature change, despite significant shifts in the microbial community structure. The lack of response to winter warming that we demonstrate, and the strong response to chronic warming treatments previously shown, together suggest that it is the peak annual soil temperature that influences the microbial temperature relationships, and that temperatures during colder seasons will have little impact. Thus, mean annual temperatures are poor predictors for microbial temperature relationships. Instead, the intensity of summer heat-spells in temperate systems is likely to shape the microbial temperature relationships that govern the soil-atmosphere C

Polar vortex evolution during Northern Hemispheric winter 2004/05

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Chshyolkova

2007-06-01

Full Text Available As a part of the project "Atmospheric Wave Influences upon the Winter Polar Vortices (0–100 km" of the CAWSES program, data from meteor and Medium Frequency radars at 12 locations and MetO (UK Meteorological Office global assimilated fields have been analyzed for the first campaign during the Northern Hemispheric winter of 2004/05. The stratospheric state has been described using the conventional zonal mean parameters as well as Q-diagnostic, which allows consideration of the longitudinal variability. The stratosphere was cold during winter of 2004/05, and the polar vortex was relatively strong during most of the winter with relatively weak disturbances occurring at the end of December and the end of January. For this winter the strongest deformation with the splitting of the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere was observed at the end of February. Here the results show strong latitudinal and longitudinal differences that are evident in the stratospheric and mesospheric data sets at different stations. Eastward winds are weaker and oscillations with planetary wave periods have smaller amplitudes at more poleward stations. Accordingly, the occurrence, time and magnitude of the observed reversal of the zonal mesospheric winds associated with stratospheric disturbances depend on the local stratospheric conditions. In general, compared to previous years, the winter of 2004/05 could be characterized by weak planetary wave activity at stratospheric and mesospheric heights.

Winter is losing its cool

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, S.

2017-12-01

Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health to ecosystems, transportation, and recreation. This study quantifies the severity of winter and its spatial-temporal variations using a newly developed winter severity index and daily temperature, snowfall and snow depth. The winter severity and the number of extreme winter days are decreasing across the global terrestrial areas during 1901-2015 except the southeast United States and isolated regions in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are dominated by winter warming, while the changes in daily snowfall and snow depth played a secondary role. The simulations of multiple CMIP5 climate models can well capture the spatial and temporal variations of the observed changes in winter severity and extremes during 1951-2005. The models are consistent in projecting a future milder winter under various scenarios. The winter severity is projected to decrease 60-80% in the middle-latitude Northern Hemisphere under the business-as-usual scenario. The winter arrives later, ends earlier and the length of winter season will be notably shorter. The changes in harsh winter in the polar regions are weak, mainly because the warming leads to more snowfall in the high latitudes.

Chemical ozone losses in Arctic and Antarctic polar winter/spring season derived from SCIAMACHY limb measurements 2002–2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Sonkaew

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Stratospheric ozone profiles are retrieved for the period 2002–2009 from SCIAMACHY measurements of limb-scattered solar radiation in the Hartley and Chappuis absorption bands of ozone. This data set is used to determine the chemical ozone losses in both the Arctic and Antarctic polar vortices by averaging the ozone in the vortex at a given potential temperature. The chemical ozone losses at isentropic levels between 450 K and 600 K are derived from the difference between observed ozone abundances and the ozone modelled taking diabatic cooling into account, but no chemical ozone loss. Chemical ozone losses of up to 30–40% between mid-January and the end of March inside the Arctic polar vortex are reported. Strong inter-annual variability of the Arctic ozone loss is observed, with the cold winters 2004/2005 and 2006/2007 showing chemical ozone losses inside the polar vortex at 475 K, where 1.7 ppmv and 1.4 ppmv of ozone were removed, respectively, over the period from 22 January to beginning of April and 0.9 ppmv and 1.2 ppmv, respectively, during February. For the winters of 2007/2008 and 2002/2003, ozone losses of about 0.8 ppmv and 0.4 ppmv, respectively are estimated at the 475 K isentropic level for the period from 22 January to beginning of April. Essentially no ozone losses were diagnosed for the relatively warm winters of 2003/2004 and 2005/2006. The maximum ozone loss in the SCIAMACHY data set was found in 2007 at the 600 K level and amounted to about 2.1 ppmv for the period between 22 January and the end of April. Enhanced losses close to this altitude were found in all investigated Arctic springs, in contrast to Antarctic spring. The inter-annual variability of ozone losses and PSC occurrence rates observed during Arctic spring is consistent with the known QBO effects on the Arctic polar vortex, with exception of the unusual Arctic winter 2008/2009.

The maximum total ozone mass loss of about 25 million tons was found in the

Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A

2018-03-13

Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.

Optimization of AGS Polarized Proton Operation with the Warm Helical Snake

CERN Document Server

Takano, Junpei; Bai, Mei; Brown, Kevin A; Gardner, Chris J; Glenn, Joseph; Hattori, Toshiyuki; Huang, Haixin; Luccio, Alfredo U; MacKay, William W; Okamura, Masahiro; Roser, Thomas; Tepikian, Steven; Tsoupas, Nicholaos

2005-01-01

A normal conducting helical dipole partial Siberian snake (Warm Snake) has been installed in the Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for overcoming all of imperfection depolarizing resonances and reducing the transverse coupling resonances caused by the solenoidal Siberian snake which had been operated in AGS before the last polarized run. The polarized proton beam has been accelerated successfully with the warm snake and the polarization at extraction of the AGS was increased to 50% as opposed to 40% with the solenoidal snake. The magnetic field and beam trajectory in the warm snake was calculated by using the OPERA-3D/TOSCA software. We present optimization of the warm snake with beam during RUN5.

Does the recent warming hiatus exist over northern Asia for winter wind chill temperature?

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Ying

2017-04-01

Wind chill temperature (WCT) describes the joint effect of wind velocity and air temperature on exposed body skin and could support policy makers in designing plans to reduce the risks of notably cold and windy weather. This study examined winter WCT over northern Asia during 1973-2013 by analyzing in situ station data. The winter WCT warming rate over the Tibetan Plateau slowed during 1999-2013 (-0.04 °C/decade) compared with that during 1973-1998 (0.67 °C/decade). The winter WCT warming hiatus has also been observed in the remainder of Northern Asia with trends of 1.11 °C/decade during 1973-1998 but -1.02 °C/decade during 1999-2013, except for the Far East of Russia (FE), where the winter WCT has continued to heat up during both the earlier period of 1973-1998 (0.54 °C/decade) and the recent period of 1999-2013 (0.75 °C/decade). The results indicate that the influence of temperature on winter WCT is greater than that of wind speed over northern Asia. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with air temperature and wind speed were analyzed to identify the causes for the warming hiatus of winter WCT over northern Asia. The distributions of sea level pressure and 500 hPa height anomalies during 1999-2013 transported cold air from the high latitudes to middle latitudes, resulting in low air temperature over Northern Asia except for the Far East of Russia. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the increase in wind speed offset the increase in air temperature during 1999-2013. For the Far East, the southerly wind from the Western Pacific drove the temperature up during the 1999-2013 period via warm advection.

Attribution of polar warming to human influence

OpenAIRE

Gillett, NP; Stone, DA; Stott, PA; Nozawa, T; Karpechko, AY; Hegerl, GC; Wehner, MF; Jones, PD

2008-01-01

The polar regions have long been expected to warm strongly as a result of anthropogenic climate change, because of the positive feedbacks associated with melting ice and snow. Several studies have noted a rise in Arctic temperatures over recent decades, but have not formally attributed the changes to human influence, owing to sparse observations and large natural variability. Both warming and cooling trends have been observed in Antarctica, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ...

Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species

Science.gov (United States)

Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J.; Bergman, Harold L.; Cherrington, Brian D.

2018-02-01

We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows ( Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters ( Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species.

Science.gov (United States)

Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J; Bergman, Harold L; Cherrington, Brian D

2018-02-01

We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows (Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters (Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

Exceptional Arctic warmth of early winter 2016 and attribution to global warming

Science.gov (United States)

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Macias-Fauria, Marc; King, Andrew; Uhe, Peter; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; Karoly, David; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2017-04-01

The dark polar winters usually sport the coldest extremes on Earth, however this winter, the North Pole and the surrounding Arctic region have experienced record high temperatures in November and December, with daily means reaching 15 °C (27 °F) above normal and a November monthly mean that was 13 °C (23 °F) above normal on the pole. November also saw a brief retreat of sea-ice that was virtually unprecedented in nearly 40 years of satellite records, followed by a record low in November sea ice area since 1850. Unlike the Antarctic, Arctic lands are inhabited and their socio-economic systems are greatly affected by the impacts of extreme and unprecedented sea ice dynamics and temperatures, such as for example, the timing of marine mammal migrations, and refreezing rain on snow that prevents reindeer from feeding. Here we report on our multi-method rapid attribution analysis of North Pole November-December temperatures. To quantify the rarity of the event, we computed the November-December averaged temperature around the North Pole (80-90 °N) in the (short but North-pole covering) ERA-interim reanalysis. To put the event in context of natural variability, we use a longer and closely related time series based on the northern most meteorological observations on land (70-80 °N). This allows for a reconstruction of Arctic temperatures back to about 1900. We also perform a multi-method analysis of North Pole temperatures with two sets of climate models: the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, and a large ensemble of model runs in the so-called Weather@Home project. Physical mechanisms that are responsible for temperature and sea ice variability in the North Pole region are also discussed. The observations and the bias-corrected CMIP5 ensemble point to a return period of about 50 to 200 years in the present climate, i.e., the probability of such an extreme is about 0.5% to 2% every year, with a large uncertainty. The observations show that November-December temperatures

Titan's Emergence from Winter

Science.gov (United States)

Flasar, F. Michael; Achterberg, Richard; Jennings, Donald; Schinder, Paul

2011-01-01

We summarize the changes in Titans thermal structure derived from Cassini CIRS and radio-occultation data during the transition from winter to early spring. Titan's surface, and middle atmosphere show noticeable seasonal change, whereas that in most of the troposphere is mated. This can be understood in terms of the relatively small radiative relaxation time in the middle atmosphere and much larger time scale in the troposphere. The surface exhibits seasonal change because the heat capacity in an annual skin depth is much smaller than that in the lowest scale height of the troposphere. Surface temperatures rise 1 K at raid and high latitudes in the winter northern hemisphere and cool in the southern hemisphere. Changes in in the middle atmosphere are more complicated. Temperatures in the middle stratosphere (approximately 1 mbar) increase by a few kelvin at mid northern latitudes, but those at high latitudes first increase as that region moves out of winter shadow, and then decrease. This probably results from the combined effect of increased solar heating as the suit moves higher in the sky and the decreased adiabatic warming as the sinking motions associated with the cross-equatorial meridional cell weaken. Consistent with this interpretation, the warm temperatures observed higher up at the winter polar stratopause cool significantly.

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz

2015-01-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100years long Betulanana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates...... a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betulanana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910-1930 to 1990-2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming....... Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20years from a period with thick snow depths (1991-1996) and a positive effect on Betulanana radial growth, to a period (1997-2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter...

Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Damm

2017-08-01

Under +2 °C warming, the weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays related to skiing tourism in Europe amounts to up to 10.1 million nights per winter season, which is +7.3 million overnight stays additionally at risk compared to the reference period (1971–2000. Among the top four European skiing tourism nations – Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland – France and Switzerland show the lowest increase in risk of losses in winter overnight stays. The highest weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays – in the reference period as well as in the +2 °C scenarios – is found in Austria, followed by Italy. These two countries account for the largest fraction of winter overnight stays in skiing related NUTS-3 regions.

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo

2015-06-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910-1930 to 1990-2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991-1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997-2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed 'greening of the Arctic' which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons

'Downward control' of the mean meridional circulation and temperature distribution of the polar winter stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Rolando R.; Boville, Byron A.

1994-01-01

According to the 'downward control' principle, the extratropical mean vertical velocity on a given pressure level is approximately proportional to the meridional gradient of the vertically integrated zonal force per unit mass exerted by waves above that level. In this paper, a simple numerical model that includes parameterizations of both planetary and gravity wave breaking is used to explore the influence of gravity wave breaking in the mesosphere on the mean meridional circulation and temperature distribution at lower levels in the polar winter stratosphere. The results of these calculations suggest that gravity wave drag in the mesosphere can affect the state of the polar winter stratosphere down to altitudes below 30 km. The effect is most important when planetary wave driving is relatively weak: that is, during southern winter and in early northern winter. In southern winter, downwelling weakens by a factor of 2 near the stratospause and by 20% at 30 km when gravity wave drag is not included in the calculations. As a consequence, temperatures decrease considerably throughout the polar winter stratosphere (over 20 K above 40 km and as much as 8 K at 30 km, where the effect is enhanced by the long radiative relaxation timescale). The polar winter states obtained when gravity wave drag is omitted in this simple model resemble the results of simulations with some general circulation models and suggest that some of the shortcomings of the latter may be due to a deficit in mesospheric momentum deposition by small-scale gravity waves.

Persistent reduction of segment growth and photosynthesis in a widespread and important sub-Arctic moss species after cessation of three years of experimental winter warming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bjerke, J.W.; Bokhorst, S.F.; Callaghan, T.V.; Phoenix, G.K.

2017-01-01

Winter is a period of dormancy for plants of cold environments. However, winter climate is changing, leading to an increasing frequency of stochastic warm periods (winter warming events) and concomitant reductions in snow cover. These conditions can break dormancy for some plants and expose them to

Extreme winter warming events more negatively impact small rather than large soil fauna: shift in community composition explained by traits not taxa.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Bjerke, J.W.; Callaghan, T.V.; Huyer-Brugman, F.A.; Berg, M.P.

2012-01-01

Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate

Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damyanov, Nikolay N; Mysak, Lawrence A; Damon Matthews, H

2012-01-01

Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada. (letter)

Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

Science.gov (United States)

Damyanov, Nikolay N.; Damon Matthews, H.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

2012-03-01

Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.

Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some, but not all species in high arctic Svalbard

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Semenchuk, Philipp R.; Elberling, Bo; Cooper, Elisabeth J.

2013-01-01

octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme...... winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering...... events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas...

Polar mesosphere winter echoes during MaCWAVE

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S. Kirkwood

2006-07-01

Full Text Available During the MaCWAVE winter campaign in January 2003, layers of enhanced echo power known as PMWE (Polar Mesosphere Winter Echoes were detected by the ESRAD 52 MHz radar on several occasions. The cause of these echoes is unclear and here we use observations by meteorological and sounding rockets and by lidar to test whether neutral turbulence or aerosol layers might be responsible. PMWE were detected within 30 min of meteorological rocket soundings (falling spheres on 5 separate days. The observations from the meteorological rockets show that, in most cases, conditions likely to be associated with neutral atmospheric turbulence are not observed at the heights of the PMWE. Observations by instrumented sounding rockets confirm low levels of turbulence and indicate considerable small-scale structure in charge density profiles. Comparison of falling sphere and lidar data, on the other hand, show that any contribution of aerosol scatter to the lidar signal at PMWE heights is less than the detection threshold of about 10%.

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore.

Science.gov (United States)

Albon, Steve D; Irvine, R Justin; Halvorsen, Odd; Langvatn, Rolf; Loe, Leif E; Ropstad, Erik; Veiberg, Vebjørn; van der Wal, René; Bjørkvoll, Eirin M; Duff, Elizabeth I; Hansen, Brage B; Lee, Aline M; Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun

2017-04-01

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a

Anthropogenic flank attack on polar bears: Interacting consequences of climate warming and pollutant exposure

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Bjørn Munro Jenssen

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Polar bears (Ursus maritimus are subjected to several anthropogenic threats, climate warming and exposure to pollutants being two of these. For polar bears, one of the main effects of climate warming is limited access to prey, due to loss of their sea ice habitat. This will result in prolonged fasting periods and emaciation and condition related negative effects on survival and reproduction success. Prolonged fasting will result in increases of the tissue concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs in polar bears, and thus increase the probability for POP levels to exceed threshold levels for effects on health, and thus on reproductive success and survival. There are clear potentials for interactions between impacts of climate warming and impacts of pollutant exposure on polar bears. It is likely that that fasting-induced increases of POPs will add to mortality rates and decrease reproductive success beyond effects caused by loss of habitat alone. However, there is a lack of studies that have addressed this. Thus, there is a need to focus on population effects of POP exposure in polar bears, and to consider such effects in relation to the effects of climate induced habitat loss.

The Winter Cooling Trend in Eastern China during the Recent Global Warming Hiatus Period and Its Possible Reason

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, T.; Li, S.; Luo, F.; Han, Z.

2017-12-01

The authors analyzed the observed winter surface air temperature in eastern mainland China during the recent global warming hiatus period through 1998-2013. The results suggest a substantial cooling trend of about -1.0°/decade in Eastern China, Northeast China and Southeast China. Mechanism exploration indicates that the displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet and the associated Rossby wave may have contributed to the cooling trend. A southward shift of the East Asian polar together with a northward shift of the subtropical jet caused the enhancement of the northern East Asian trough and Siberian High. A diagnostic analysis suggests that the Arctic sea ice loss, ENSO and North Atlantic SST all play a role. With the three factors removed, the air temperature trend is -0.35, -0.08 and -0.44°/decade over East China, Northeast China and Southeast China, respectively.

Climatic warming increases winter wheat yield but reduces grain nitrogen concentration in east China.

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Yunlu Tian

Full Text Available Climatic warming is often predicted to reduce wheat yield and grain quality in China. However, direct evidence is still lacking. We conducted a three-year experiment with a Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI facility to examine the responses of winter wheat growth and plant N accumulation to a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C predicted to prevail by 2050 in East China. Three warming treatments (AW: all-day warming; DW: daytime warming; NW: nighttime warming were applied for an entire growth period. Consistent warming effects on wheat plant were recorded across the experimental years. An increase of ca. 1.5°C in daily, daytime and nighttime mean temperatures shortened the length of pre-anthesis period averagely by 12.7, 8.3 and 10.7 d (P<0.05, respectively, but had no significant impact on the length of the post-anthesis period. Warming did not significantly alter the aboveground biomass production, but the grain yield was 16.3, 18.1 and 19.6% (P<0.05 higher in the AW, DW and NW plots than the non-warmed plot, respectively. Warming also significantly increased plant N uptake and total biomass N accumulation. However, warming significantly reduced grain N concentrations while increased N concentrations in the leaves and stems. Together, our results demonstrate differential impacts of warming on the depositions of grain starch and protein, highlighting the needs to further understand the mechanisms that underlie warming impacts on plant C and N metabolism in wheat.

Differential impacts of ocean acidification and warming on winter and summer progeny of a coastal squid (Loligo vulgaris).

Science.gov (United States)

Rosa, Rui; Trübenbach, Katja; Pimentel, Marta S; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Dionísio, Gisela; Calado, Ricardo; Pörtner, Hans O; Repolho, Tiago

2014-02-15

Little is known about the capacity of early life stages to undergo hypercapnic and thermal acclimation under the future scenarios of ocean acidification and warming. Here, we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses to these climate change-related variables (2°C above winter and summer average spawning temperatures and ΔpH=0.5 units) during the early ontogeny of the squid Loligo vulgaris. Embryo survival rates ranged from 92% to 96% under present-day temperature (13-17°C) and pH (8.0) scenarios. Yet, ocean acidification (pH 7.5) and summer warming (19°C) led to a significant drop in the survival rates of summer embryos (47%, Pocean acidification and summer warming scenarios. The occurrence of prolonged embryogenesis along with lowered thermal tolerance limits under such conditions is expected to negatively affect the survival success of squid early life stages during the summer spawning period, but not winter spawning.

Stratospheric warmings - The quasi-biennial oscillation Ozone Hole in the Antarctic but not the Arctic - Correlations between the Solar Cycle, Polar Temperatures, and an Equatorial Oscillation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoppe, Ulf-Peter

2010-05-15

This report is a tutorial and overview over some of the complex dynamic phenomena in the polar and equatorial stratosphere, and the unexpected correlation that exists between these and the solar cycle. Sudden stratospheric warmings (stratwarms) occur in the polar stratosphere in winter, but not equally distributed between the two hemispheres. As a result, the ozone hole in the springtime polar stratosphere is much more severe in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a dynamic phenomenon of the equatorial stratosphere. Through processes not fully understood, the phase of the QBO (easterly or westerly) influences the onset of stratwarms. In addition, a correlation between the stratospheric winter temperature over the poles and the solar cycle has been found, but only if the datapoints are ordered by the phase of the QBO. - The best explanations and figures from four recent textbooks are selected, and abstracts of most relevant publications from the six last years are collected, with the most relevant portions for these subjects highlighted. - In addition to being basic science, the understanding of these phenomena is important in the context of the ozone hole, the greenhouse effect, as well as anthropogenic and natural climate change. (author)

High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world's northernmost polar desert.

Science.gov (United States)

Weijers, Stef; Buchwal, Agata; Blok, Daan; Löffler, Jörg; Elberling, Bo

2017-11-01

Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulT emx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulT emx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to

Are winter-active species vulnerable to climate warming? A case study with the wintergreen terrestrial orchid, Tipularia discolor.

Science.gov (United States)

Marchin, Renée M; Dunn, Robert R; Hoffmann, William A

2014-12-01

In the eastern United States, winter temperature has been increasing nearly twice as fast as summer temperature, but studies of warming effects on plants have focused on species that are photosynthetically active in summer. The terrestrial orchid Tipularia discolor is leafless in summer and acquires C primarily in winter. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis in T. discolor is higher than the maximum temperature throughout most of its growing season, and therefore growth can be expected to increase with warming. Contrary to this hypothesis, experimental warming negatively affected reproductive fitness (number of flowering stalks, flowers, fruits) and growth (change in leaf area from 2010 to 2012) in T. discolor. Temperature in June-July was critical for flowering, and mean July temperature greater than 29 °C (i.e., 2.5 °C above ambient) eliminated reproduction. Warming of 1.2 °C delayed flowering by an average of 10 days and fruiting by an average of 5 days. Warming of 4.4 °C reduced relative growth rates by about 60%, which may have been partially caused by the direct effects of temperature on photosynthesis and respiration. Warming indirectly increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by 0.2-0.5 kPa, and leaf-to-air VPD over 1.3 kPa restricted stomatal conductance of T. discolor to 10-40% of maximum conductance. These results highlight the need to account for changes in VPD when estimating temperature responses of plant species under future warming scenarios. Increasing temperature in the future will likely be an important limiting factor to the distribution of T. discolor, especially along the southern edge of its range.

Validation of a limited area model over Dome C, Antarctic Plateau, during winter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gallee, Hubert; Gorodetskaya, Irina V. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement, CNRS, 54, rue Moliere, BP. 96, St Martin d' Heres Cedex (France)

2010-01-15

The limited area model MAR (Modele Atmospherique Regional) is validated over the Antarctic Plateau for the period 2004-2006, focussing on Dome C during the cold season. MAR simulations are made by initializing the model once and by forcing it through its lateral and top boundaries by the ECMWF operational analyses. Model outputs compare favourably with observations from automatic weather station (AWS), radiometers and atmospheric soundings. MAR is able to simulate the succession of cold and warm events which occur at Dome C during winter. Larger longwave downwelling fluxes (LWD) are responsible for higher surface air temperatures and weaker surface inversions during winter. Warm events are better simulated when the small Antarctic precipitating snow particles are taken into account in radiative transfer computations. MAR stratosphere cools during the cold season, with the coldest temperatures occurring in conjunction with warm events at the surface. The decrease of saturation specific humidity associated with these coldest temperatures is responsible for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) especially in August-September. PSCs then contribute to the surface warming by increasing the surface downwelling longwave flux. (orig.)

Winter warming delays dormancy release, advances budburst, alters carbohydrate metabolism and reduces yield in a temperate shrub

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie

2015-01-01

Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during winter. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, warming is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated ...

Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America

Science.gov (United States)

Biederman, Joel A.; Scott, Russell L.; John A. Arnone,; Jasoni, Richard L.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Moreo, Michael T.; Papuga, Shirley A.; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Schreiner-McGraw, Adam P.; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2018-01-01

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate how the amount and seasonal timing of water availability regulate CO2 exchange between shrublands and the atmosphere. We use eddy covariance data from six US sites across the three warm deserts of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of ∼100–400mm, annual temperatures of 13–18°C, and records of 2–8 years (33 site-years in total). The Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave Deserts present gradients in both mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution between the wet-winter Mojave Desert and the wet-summer Chihuahuan Desert. We found that due to hydrologic losses during the wettest summers in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts, evapotranspiration (ET) was a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive dryland CO2 exchange. In contrast with recent synthesis studies across diverse dryland biomes, we found that NEP could not be directly predicted from ET due to wintertime decoupling of the relationship between ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE=GEP/ET) did not differ between winter and summer. Carbon use efficiency (CUE=NEP/GEP), however, was greater in winter because Reco returned a smaller fraction of carbon to the atmosphere (23% of GEP) than in summer (77%). Combining the water-carbon relations found here with historical precipitation since 1980, we estimate that lower average winter precipitation during the 21st century reduced the net carbon sink of the three deserts by an average of 6.8TgC yr1. Our results highlight that winter precipitation is critical to the annual carbon balance of these

South-coast cyclone in Japan during El Niño-caused warm winters

Science.gov (United States)

Ueda, Hiroaki; Amagai, Yuusuke; Hayasaki, Masamitsu

2017-05-01

La Niña conditions during boreal winter sometimes brings excessive snowfall in Japan, especially on the East Sea/Sea of Japan coastal and mountain areas through intensified northwesterly cold winds caused by La-Niña related atmospheric teleconnection. Meanwhile, snowfall events also increase in the Pacific coast area of Japan during the El Niño state due to extratropical cyclones passing along the south coast of Japan (hereafter referred to as South-coast cyclone). In the present study, we investigated year-to-year snowfall/rainfall variations based on meteorological station data and cyclone tracks identified by using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis. The result clearly indicates increase of the South-coast cyclone during El Niño-developing winters, which is consistent with excessive snow-fall in the northern part of the Pacific coast. Strong subtropical jet hampers cyclogenesis due to less vertical interaction through the trapping of upper-level eddies. During El Niño-developing winters, the subtropical jet is weakened over East Asia, indicating dynamic linkage to increased cyclone frequency. In addition to this, both the deepening of the upper-tropospheric trough over East Asia and anomalous low-tropospheric northwest anticyclones extending from the Philippines toward Japan are also consistent with the enhancement of cyclogenesis over the East China Sea as well as warm winter in Japan.

The anxieties of a science diplomat: field coproduction of climate knowledge and the rise and fall of Hans Ahlmann's polar warming".

Science.gov (United States)

Sörlin, Sverker

2011-01-01

In the decades between the world wars there were several attempts to document and explain perceived tendencies of atmospheric warming. Hans Ahlmann, a seminal figure in modern glaciology and a science policy adviser and diplomat, constructed a theory of "polar warming" using field results from glacier melting in the Arctic. This article aims to link the rise and fall of "polar warming" with Ahlmann's style of fieldwork. In Ahlmann's view, fieldwork should (1) enhance credibility of polar climate science by emulating laboratory methods and (2) secure knowledge in remote places through collaboration with local residents and fieldworkers. The bodily nature of this style of knowledge production turned out to be an asset in establishing Ahlmann's theory of polar warming but ultimately proved nonresilient to theories of anthropogenic climate change, which became influential from the 1950s onward.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Warm and Dry Spells (WDS in Austral Winter over Central South America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Satyamurty

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The horizontal and vertical structure of unusually warm and dry spells (WDS over the central parts of South America during the winter and post-winter months (JJAS are studied. During WDS the mean temperature and humidity anomalies over central Brazil are about +4.1°C and −13.2%, respectively. The mean duration of WDS is 11 days and their mean frequency is less than one per year during the months of JJAS. Apparently, WDS have no preference for the phase of ENSO. Widespread and persistent subsidence in the middle troposphere is observed in tropical Brazil during WDS, which renders the lower tropospheric air warm and dry. The negative anomalies of the specific humidity are observed to be associated with the subsidence regions. A strong, slow moving ridge in the eastern South Pacific and a low-pressure center in northern Argentina are important surface characteristics during the WDS. A more detailed investigation of two specific WDS events, a strong event (August–September 1999 and a moderate one (June 2002, shows a blocking-like situation in the 500-hPa geopotential and surface pressure fields in the Pacific. The South Atlantic subtropical high somewhat approaches the continent. Strong northerlies over the central and eastern parts of Brazil are also observed in the lower troposphere. During WDS the regional circulation acquires summertime characteristics, except for the absence of precipitation, and the circulation in the meridional plane is in the opposite sense from the Hadley circulation. A frontal system, supported by a 500-hPa trough, advances into central Brazil, causing the dissipation of the anomalous situation.

A numerical study of the South China Sea Warm Current during winter monsoon relaxation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Cong; Ding, Yang; Bao, Xianwen; Bi, Congcong; Li, Ruixiang; Zhang, Cunjie; Shen, Biao; Wan, Kai

2018-03-01

Using a Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model, we investigated the dynamic mechanism of the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) during winter monsoon relaxation. The model reproduces the mean surface circulation of the NSCS during winter, while model-simulated subtidal currents generally capture its current pattern. The model shows that the current over the continental shelf is generally southwestward, under a strong winter monsoon condition, but a northeastward counter-wind current usually develops between 50-and 100-m isobaths, when the monsoon relaxes. Model experiments, focusing on the wind relaxation process, show that sea level is elevated in the northwestern South China Sea (SCS), related to the persistent northeasterly monsoon. Following wind relaxation, a high sea level band builds up along the mid-shelf, and a northeastward current develops, having an obvious vertical barotropic structure. Momentum balance analysis indicates that an along-shelf pressure gradient provides the initial driving force for the SCSWC during the first few days following wind relaxation. The SCSWC subsequently reaches a steady quasi-geostrophic balance in the cross-shelf direction, mainly linked to sea level adjustment over the shelf. Lagrangian particle tracking experiments show that both the southwestward coastal current and slope current contribute to the northeastward movement of the SCSWC during winter monsoon relaxation.

Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

2005-01-01

Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...... rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however...

Effects of experimental warming and nitrogen addition on soil respiration and CH4 fluxes from crop rotations of winter wheat–soybean/fallow

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, L; Hu, C; Yang, P

2015-01-01

Soil respiration and CH4 emissions play a significant role in the global carbon balance. However, in situ studies in agricultural soils on responses of soil respiration and CH4 fluxes to climate warming are still sparse, especially from long-term studies with year-round heating. A warming...... by affecting soil NH4 concentration. Across years, CH4 emissions were negatively correlated with soil temperature in N1 treatment. Soil respiration showed clear seasonal fluctuations, with the largest emissions during summer and smallest in winter. Warming and nitrogen fertilization had no significant effects...... on total cumulative soil CO2 fluxes. Soil respiration was positively correlated with microbial biomass C, and microbial biomass C was not affected significantly by warming or nitrogen addition. The lack of significant effects of warming on soil respiration may have resulted from: (1) warming-induced soil...

Polar stratospheric cloud observations by MIPAS on ENVISAT: detection method, validation and analysis of the northern hemisphere winter 2002/2003

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Spang

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS on ENVISAT has made extensive measurements of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs in the northern hemisphere winter 2002/2003. A PSC detection method based on a ratio of radiances (the cloud index has been implemented for MIPAS and is validated in this study with respect to ground-based lidar and space borne occultation measurements. A very good correspondence in PSC sighting and cloud altitude between MIPAS detections and those of other instruments is found for cloud index values of less than four. Comparisons with data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE III are used to further show that the sensitivity of the MIPAS detection method for this threshold value of cloud index is approximately equivalent to an extinction limit of 10-3km-1 at 1022nm, a wavelength used by solar occultation experiments. The MIPAS cloud index data are subsequently used to examine, for the first time with any technique, the evolution of PSCs throughout the Arctic polar vortex up to a latitude close to 90° north on a near-daily basis. We find that the winter of 2002/2003 is characterised by three phases of very different PSC activity. First, an unusual, extremely cold phase in the first three weeks of December resulted in high PSC occurrence rates. This was followed by a second phase of only moderate PSC activity from 5-13 January, separated from the first phase by a minor warming event. Finally there was a third phase from February to the end of March where only sporadic and mostly weak PSC events took place. The composition of PSCs during the winter period has also been examined, exploiting in particular an infra-red spectral signature which is probably characteristic of NAT. The MIPAS observations show the presence of these particles on a number of occasions in December but very rarely in January. The PSC type differentiation from MIPAS indicates that future comparisons of PSC

Possible Effects of Climate Warming on Selected Populations of Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Stirling Ian

2006-01-01

Polar bears are dependent on sea ice for survival. Climate warming in the Arctic has caused significant declines in coverage and thickness of sea ice in the polar basin and progressively earlier breakup in some areas. In four populations of polar bears in the eastern Canadian Arctic (including Western Hudson Bay), Inuit hunters report more bears near settlements during the open water period in recent years. These observations have been interpreted as evidence of increasing population size, resulting in increases in hunting quotas. However, long-term data on the population size and condition of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, and population and harvest data from Baffin Bay, make it clear that those two populations at least are declining, not increasing. While the details vary in different arctic regions, analysis of passive-microwave satellite imagery, beginning in the late 1970s, indicates that the sea ice is breaking up at progressively earlier dates, so that bears must fast for longer periods during the open water season. Thus, at least part of the explanation for the appearance of more bears in coastal communities is likely that they are searching for alternative food sources because their stored body fat depots are being exhausted. We hypothesize that, if the climate continues to warm as projected by the IPCC, then polar bears in all five populations discussed in this paper will be stressed and are likely to decline in numbers, probably significantly so. As these populations decline, there will likely also be continuing, possibly increasing, numbers of problem interactions between bears and humans as the bears seek alternate food sources. Taken together, the data reported in this paper suggest that a precautionary approach be taken to the harvesting of polar bears and that the potential effects of climate warming be incorporated into planning for the management and conservation of this species throughout the Arctic.

Polar bears experience skeletal muscle atrophy in response to food deprivation and reduced activity in winter and summer

Science.gov (United States)

Whiteman, John P.; Harlow, Henry J.; Durner, George M.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rourke, Bryan C.; Robles, Manuel; Amstrup, Steven C.; Ben-David, Merav

2017-01-01

When reducing activity and using stored energy during seasonal food shortages, animals risk degradation of skeletal muscles, although some species avoid or minimize the resulting atrophy while experiencing these conditions during hibernation. Polar bears may be food deprived and relatively inactive during winter (when pregnant females hibernate and hunting success declines for other demographic groups) as well as summer (when sea ice retreats from key foraging habitats). We investigated muscle atrophy in samples of biceps femoris collected from free-ranging polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) throughout their annual cycle. Atrophy was most pronounced in April–May as a result of food deprivation during the previous winter, with muscles exhibiting reduced protein concentration, increased water content, and lower creatine kinase mRNA. These animals increased feeding and activity in spring (when seal prey becomes more available), initiating a period of muscle recovery. During the following ice melt of late summer, ~30% of SBS bears abandon retreating sea ice for land; in August, these ‘shore’ bears exhibited no muscle atrophy, indicating that they had fully recovered from winter food deprivation. These individuals subsequently scavenged whale carcasses deposited by humans and by October, had retained good muscle condition. In contrast, ~70% of SBS bears follow the ice north in late summer, into deep water with less prey. These ‘ice’ bears fast; by October, they exhibited muscle protein loss and rapid changes in myosin heavy-chain isoforms in response to reduced activity. These findings indicate that, unlike other bears during winter hibernation, polar bears without food in summer cannot mitigate atrophy. Consequently, prolonged summer fasting resulting from climate change-induced ice loss creates a risk of greater muscle atrophy and reduced abilities to travel and hunt.

Polar bears experience skeletal muscle atrophy in response to food deprivation and reduced activity in winter and summer

Science.gov (United States)

Harlow, Henry J.; Durner, George M.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rourke, Bryan C.; Robles, Manuel; Amstrup, Steven C.; Ben-David, Merav

2017-01-01

Abstract When reducing activity and using stored energy during seasonal food shortages, animals risk degradation of skeletal muscles, although some species avoid or minimize the resulting atrophy while experiencing these conditions during hibernation. Polar bears may be food deprived and relatively inactive during winter (when pregnant females hibernate and hunting success declines for other demographic groups) as well as summer (when sea ice retreats from key foraging habitats). We investigated muscle atrophy in samples of biceps femoris collected from free-ranging polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) throughout their annual cycle. Atrophy was most pronounced in April–May as a result of food deprivation during the previous winter, with muscles exhibiting reduced protein concentration, increased water content, and lower creatine kinase mRNA. These animals increased feeding and activity in spring (when seal prey becomes more available), initiating a period of muscle recovery. During the following ice melt of late summer, ~30% of SBS bears abandon retreating sea ice for land; in August, these ‘shore’ bears exhibited no muscle atrophy, indicating that they had fully recovered from winter food deprivation. These individuals subsequently scavenged whale carcasses deposited by humans and by October, had retained good muscle condition. In contrast, ~70% of SBS bears follow the ice north in late summer, into deep water with less prey. These ‘ice’ bears fast; by October, they exhibited muscle protein loss and rapid changes in myosin heavy-chain isoforms in response to reduced activity. These findings indicate that, unlike other bears during winter hibernation, polar bears without food in summer cannot mitigate atrophy. Consequently, prolonged summer fasting resulting from climate change-induced ice loss creates a risk of greater muscle atrophy and reduced abilities to travel and hunt. PMID:28835844

Polar bears experience skeletal muscle atrophy in response to food deprivation and reduced activity in winter and summer.

Science.gov (United States)

Whiteman, John P; Harlow, Henry J; Durner, George M; Regehr, Eric V; Rourke, Bryan C; Robles, Manuel; Amstrup, Steven C; Ben-David, Merav

2017-01-01

When reducing activity and using stored energy during seasonal food shortages, animals risk degradation of skeletal muscles, although some species avoid or minimize the resulting atrophy while experiencing these conditions during hibernation. Polar bears may be food deprived and relatively inactive during winter (when pregnant females hibernate and hunting success declines for other demographic groups) as well as summer (when sea ice retreats from key foraging habitats). We investigated muscle atrophy in samples of biceps femoris collected from free-ranging polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) throughout their annual cycle. Atrophy was most pronounced in April-May as a result of food deprivation during the previous winter, with muscles exhibiting reduced protein concentration, increased water content, and lower creatine kinase mRNA. These animals increased feeding and activity in spring (when seal prey becomes more available), initiating a period of muscle recovery. During the following ice melt of late summer, ~30% of SBS bears abandon retreating sea ice for land; in August, these 'shore' bears exhibited no muscle atrophy, indicating that they had fully recovered from winter food deprivation. These individuals subsequently scavenged whale carcasses deposited by humans and by October, had retained good muscle condition. In contrast, ~70% of SBS bears follow the ice north in late summer, into deep water with less prey. These 'ice' bears fast; by October, they exhibited muscle protein loss and rapid changes in myosin heavy-chain isoforms in response to reduced activity. These findings indicate that, unlike other bears during winter hibernation, polar bears without food in summer cannot mitigate atrophy. Consequently, prolonged summer fasting resulting from climate change-induced ice loss creates a risk of greater muscle atrophy and reduced abilities to travel and hunt.

Thermal Thresholds of Phytoplankton Growth in Polar Waters and Their Consequences for a Warming Polar Ocean

KAUST Repository

Coello-Camba, Alexandra

2017-06-02

Polar areas are experiencing the steepest warming rates on Earth, a trend expected to continue in the future. In these habitats, phytoplankton communities constitute the basis of the food web and their thermal tolerance may dictate how warming affects these delicate environments. Here, we compiled available data on thermal responses of phytoplankton growth in polar waters. We assembled 53 growth-vs.-temperature curves (25 from the Arctic, 28 from the Southern oceans), indicating the limited information available for these ecosystems. Half of the data from Arctic phytoplankton came from natural communities where low ambient concentrations could limit growth rates. Phytoplankton from polar waters grew faster under small temperature increases until reaching an optimum (TOPT), and slowed when temperatures increased beyond this value. This left-skewed curves were characterized by higher activation energies (Ea) for phytoplankton growth above than below the TOPT. Combining these thermal responses we obtained a community TOPT of 6.5°C (±0.2) and 5.2°C (±0.1) for Arctic and Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities, respectively. These threshold temperatures were already exceeded at 70°N during the first half of August 2013, evidenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs, satellite data, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov). We forecasted SSTs for the end of the twenty-first century by assuming an overall 3°C increase, equivalent to a low emission scenario. Our forecasts show that SSTs at 70°N are expected to exceed TOPT during summer by 2100, and during the first half of August at 75°N. While recent Arctic spring temperatures average 0.5°C and −0.7°C at 70°N and 75°N, respectively, they could increase to 2.8°C at 70°N and 2.2°C at 75°N as we approach 2100. Such temperature increases could lead to intense phytoplankton blooms, shortened by fast nutrient consumption. As SSTs increase, thermal thresholds for phytoplankton growth would be eventually exceeded during bloom

Thermal Thresholds of Phytoplankton Growth in Polar Waters and Their Consequences for a Warming Polar Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra Coello-Camba

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Polar areas are experiencing the steepest warming rates on Earth, a trend expected to continue in the future. In these habitats, phytoplankton communities constitute the basis of the food web and their thermal tolerance may dictate how warming affects these delicate environments. Here, we compiled available data on thermal responses of phytoplankton growth in polar waters. We assembled 53 growth-vs.-temperature curves (25 from the Arctic, 28 from the Southern oceans, indicating the limited information available for these ecosystems. Half of the data from Arctic phytoplankton came from natural communities where low ambient concentrations could limit growth rates. Phytoplankton from polar waters grew faster under small temperature increases until reaching an optimum (TOPT, and slowed when temperatures increased beyond this value. This left-skewed curves were characterized by higher activation energies (Ea for phytoplankton growth above than below the TOPT. Combining these thermal responses we obtained a community TOPT of 6.5°C (±0.2 and 5.2°C (±0.1 for Arctic and Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities, respectively. These threshold temperatures were already exceeded at 70°N during the first half of August 2013, evidenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs, satellite data, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov. We forecasted SSTs for the end of the twenty-first century by assuming an overall 3°C increase, equivalent to a low emission scenario. Our forecasts show that SSTs at 70°N are expected to exceed TOPT during summer by 2100, and during the first half of August at 75°N. While recent Arctic spring temperatures average 0.5°C and −0.7°C at 70°N and 75°N, respectively, they could increase to 2.8°C at 70°N and 2.2°C at 75°N as we approach 2100. Such temperature increases could lead to intense phytoplankton blooms, shortened by fast nutrient consumption. As SSTs increase, thermal thresholds for phytoplankton growth would be eventually exceeded

Thermal Thresholds of Phytoplankton Growth in Polar Waters and Their Consequences for a Warming Polar Ocean

KAUST Repository

Coello-Camba, Alexandra; Agusti, Susana

2017-01-01

Polar areas are experiencing the steepest warming rates on Earth, a trend expected to continue in the future. In these habitats, phytoplankton communities constitute the basis of the food web and their thermal tolerance may dictate how warming affects these delicate environments. Here, we compiled available data on thermal responses of phytoplankton growth in polar waters. We assembled 53 growth-vs.-temperature curves (25 from the Arctic, 28 from the Southern oceans), indicating the limited information available for these ecosystems. Half of the data from Arctic phytoplankton came from natural communities where low ambient concentrations could limit growth rates. Phytoplankton from polar waters grew faster under small temperature increases until reaching an optimum (TOPT), and slowed when temperatures increased beyond this value. This left-skewed curves were characterized by higher activation energies (Ea) for phytoplankton growth above than below the TOPT. Combining these thermal responses we obtained a community TOPT of 6.5°C (±0.2) and 5.2°C (±0.1) for Arctic and Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities, respectively. These threshold temperatures were already exceeded at 70°N during the first half of August 2013, evidenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs, satellite data, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov). We forecasted SSTs for the end of the twenty-first century by assuming an overall 3°C increase, equivalent to a low emission scenario. Our forecasts show that SSTs at 70°N are expected to exceed TOPT during summer by 2100, and during the first half of August at 75°N. While recent Arctic spring temperatures average 0.5°C and −0.7°C at 70°N and 75°N, respectively, they could increase to 2.8°C at 70°N and 2.2°C at 75°N as we approach 2100. Such temperature increases could lead to intense phytoplankton blooms, shortened by fast nutrient consumption. As SSTs increase, thermal thresholds for phytoplankton growth would be eventually exceeded during bloom

Impacts of winter NPO on subsequent winter ENSO: sensitivity to the definition of NPO index

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang

2018-01-01

This study investigates the linkage between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on seven different NPO indices. Results show that the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter El Niño is sensitive to how the NPO is defined. A significant NPO-El Niño connection is obtained when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific extends to near-equatorial regions. The anomalous cyclone induces warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through modulating surface heat fluxes. These warm SST anomalies are able to maintain into the following spring and summer through an air-sea coupled process and in turn induce significant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. In contrast, the NPO-El Niño relationship is unclear when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific is confined to off-equatorial regions and cannot induce significant warm SST anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific. The present study suggests that definitions of NPO should be taken into account when using NPO to predict ENSO. In particular, we recommend defining the NPO index based on the empirical orthogonal function technique over appropriate region that does not extend too far north.

Polar vortices on Earth and Mars: A comparative study of the climatology and variability from reanalyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, D M; Montabone, L; Thomson, S; Read, P L

2015-01-01

Polar vortices on Mars provide case-studies to aid understanding of geophysical vortex dynamics and may help to resolve long-standing issues regarding polar vortices on Earth. Due to the recent development of the first publicly available Martian reanalysis dataset (MACDA), for the first time we are able to characterise thoroughly the structure and evolution of the Martian polar vortices, and hence perform a systematic comparison with the polar vortices on Earth. The winter atmospheric circulations of the two planets are compared, with a specific focus on the structure and evolution of the polar vortices. The Martian residual meridional overturning circulation is found to be very similar to the stratospheric residual circulation on Earth during winter. While on Earth this residual circulation is very different from the Eulerian circulation, on Mars it is found to be very similar. Unlike on Earth, it is found that the Martian polar vortices are annular, and that the Northern Hemisphere vortex is far stronger than its southern counterpart. While winter hemisphere differences in vortex strength are also reported on Earth, the contrast is not as large. Distinctions between the two planets are also apparent in terms of the climatological vertical structure of the vortices, in that the Martian polar vortices are observed to decrease in size at higher altitudes, whereas on Earth the opposite is observed. Finally, it is found that the Martian vortices are less variable through the winter than on Earth, especially in terms of the vortex geometry. During one particular major regional dust storm on Mars (Martian year 26), an equatorward displacement of the vortex is observed, sharing some qualitative characteristics of sudden stratospheric warmings on Earth.

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansen, Brage B; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Loe, Leif E; Coulson, Stephen J; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

2014-01-01

One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

2014-11-01

One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

Cold climate bioventing with soil warming in Alaska

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sayles, G.D.; Brenner, R.C.; Leeson, A.; Hinchee, R.E.; Vogel, C.M.

1995-01-01

In the heart of Alaska, a 3-year field study was conducted of bioventing in conjunction with several soil warming methods. The contamination was JP-4 jet fuel. The soil warming methods evaluated, chosen for their apparent low cost, were (1) application of warm water at a low rate, (2) enhanced solar warming by covering the surface with clear plastic in the summer and covering the surface with insulation in the winter, and (3) buried heat pipe. The warm water and buried heat tape methods performed best, maintaining summer-like 10 to 20 C temperatures in the test plots year round, compared to the temperature of the unheated control plot, which dipped to -1 C in the winter. The solar/insulation warming method showed a modest improvement in temperature over the unheated control test plot. The annual average temperatures of the warm water, heat tape, solar, and control plots were 16.9, 14.5, 6.1, and 3.5 C, respectively. The biodegradation rates, measured by in situ respirometry, were higher in plots with higher temperatures and followed the Arrhenius relationship. Despite the low temperature, significant biodegradation was observed in the unheated plot during the winter

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Experimental warming-driven soil drying reduced N2O emissions from fertilized crop rotations of winter wheat-soybean/fallow, 2009-2014

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, L; Hu, C; Yang, P

2016-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agricultural soils play an important role in the global greenhouse gas budget. However, the response of N2O emissions from nitrogen fertilized agricultural soils to climate warming is not yet well understood. A field experiment with simulated warming (T) using...... infrared heaters and its control (C) combined with a nitrogen (N1) fertilization treatment (315 kg N ha−1 y−1) and no nitrogen treatment (N0) was conducted over five years at an agricultural research station in the North China Plain in a winter wheat–soybean double cropping system. N2O fluxes were measured...

The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Dörnbrack

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event.

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

Science.gov (United States)

Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Novel psychrotolerant picocyanobacteria isolated from Chesapeake Bay in the winter.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yongle; Jiao, Nianzhi; Chen, Feng

2015-08-01

Picocyanobacteria are major primary producers in the ocean, especially in the tropical or subtropical oceans or during warm seasons. Many "warm" picocyanobacterial species have been isolated and characterized. However, picocyanobacteria in cold environments or cold seasons are much less studied. In general, little is known about the taxonomy and ecophysiology of picocyanobacteria living in the winter. In this study, 17 strains of picocyanobacteria were isolated from Chesapeake Bay, a temperate estuarine ecosystem, during the winter months. These winter isolates belong to five distinct phylogenetic lineages, and are distinct from the picocyanobacteria previously isolated from the warm seasons. The vast majority of the winter isolates were closely related to picocyanobacteria isolated from other cold environments like Arctic or subalpine waters. The winter picocyanobacterial isolates were able to maintain slow growth or prolonged dormancy at 4°C. Interestingly, the phycoerythrin-rich strains outperformed the phycocyanin-rich strains at cold temperature. In addition, winter picocyanobacteria changed their morphology when cultivated at 4°C. The close phylogenetic relationship between the winter picocyanobacteria and the picocyanobacteria living in high latitude cold regions indicates that low temperature locations select specific ecotypes of picocyanobacteria. © 2015 Phycological Society of America.

Polar-night O3, NO2 and NO3 distributions during sudden stratospheric warmings in 2003–2008 as seen by GOMOS/Envisat

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Kyrölä

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW are large-scale transient events, which have a profound effect on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation in winter. During the SSW events the temperature in stratosphere increases by several tens of Kelvins and zonal winds decelerate or reverse in direction. Changes in temperature and dynamics significantly affect the chemical composition of the middle atmosphere. In this paper, the response of the middle-atmosphere trace gases during several sudden stratospheric warmings in 2003–2008 is investigated using measurements from the GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars instrument on board the Envisat satellite. We have analyzed spatial and temporal changes of NO2 and NO3 in the stratosphere, and of ozone in the whole middle atmosphere. To facilitate our analyses, we have used the temperature profiles data from the MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder instrument on board the Aura satellite, as well as simulations by the FinROSE chemistry-transport model and the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry model (SIC. NO3 observations in the polar winter stratosphere during SSWs are reported for the first time. Changes in chemical composition are found not to be restricted to the stratosphere, but to extend to mesosphere and lower thermosphere. They often exhibit a complicated structure, because the distribution of trace gases is affected by changes in both chemistry and dynamics. The tertiary ozone maximum in the mesosphere often disappears with the onset of SSW, probably because of strong mixing processes. The strong horizontal mixing with outside-vortex air is well observed also in NO2 data, especially in cases of enhanced NO2 inside the polar vortex before SSW. Almost in all of the considered events, ozone near the secondary maximum decreases with onset of SSW. In both experimental data and FinROSE modelling, ozone changes are positively correlated with temperature changes in the lower stratosphere

Observed Decrease of North American Winter Temperature Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; McKinnon, K. A.; Huybers, P. J.

2015-12-01

There is considerable interest in determining whether temperature variability has changed in recent decades. Model ensembles project that extratropical land temperature variance will detectably decrease by 2070. We use quantile regression of station observations to show that decreasing variability is already robustly detectable for North American winter during 1979--2014. Pointwise trends from GHCND stations are mapped into a continuous spatial field using thin-plate spline regression, resolving small-scales while providing uncertainties accounting for spatial covariance and varying station density. We find that variability of daily temperatures, as measured by the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles, has decreased markedly in winter for both daily minima and maxima. Composites indicate that the reduced spread of winter temperatures primarily results from Arctic amplification decreasing the meridional temperature gradient. Greater observed warming in the 5th relative to the 95th percentile stems from asymmetric effects of advection during cold versus warm days; cold air advection is generally from northerly regions that have experienced greater warming than western or southwestern regions that are generally sourced during warm days.

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melanie A Harsch

Full Text Available Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5 with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C, dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm. Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

Science.gov (United States)

Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

Global warming: Sea ice and snow cover

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walsh, J.E.

1993-01-01

In spite of differences among global climate simulations under scenarios where atmospheric CO 2 is doubled, all models indicate at least some amplification of greenouse warming at the polar regions. Several decades of recent data on air temperature, sea ice, and snow cover of the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are summarized to illustrate the general compatibility of recent variations in those parameters. Despite a data void over the Arctic Ocean, some noteworthy patterns emerge. Warming dominates in winter and spring, as projected by global climate models, with the warming strongest over subpolar land areas of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and northern Eurasia. A time-longitude summary of Arctic sea ice variations indicates that timescales of most anomalies range from several months to several years. Wintertime maxima of total sea ice extent contain no apparent secular trends. The statistical significance of trends in recent sea ice variations was evaluated by a Monte Carlo procedure, showing a statistically significant negative trend in the summer. Snow cover data over the 20-y period of record show a noticeable decrease of Arctic snow cover in the late 1980s. This is of potential climatic significance since the accompanying decrease of surface albedo leads to a rapid increase of solar heating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

Science.gov (United States)

Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dodds, Kevin; Horton, Radley M.

2016-01-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

The major stratospheric final warming in 2016: dispersal of vortex air and termination of Arctic chemical ozone loss

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. L. Manney

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The 2015/16 Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere appeared to have the greatest potential yet seen for record Arctic ozone loss. Temperatures in the Arctic lower stratosphere were at record lows from December 2015 through early February 2016, with an unprecedented period of temperatures below ice polar stratospheric cloud thresholds. Trace gas measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS show that exceptional denitrification and dehydration, as well as extensive chlorine activation, occurred throughout the polar vortex. Ozone decreases in 2015/16 began earlier and proceeded more rapidly than those in 2010/11, a winter that saw unprecedented Arctic ozone loss. However, on 5–6 March 2016 a major final sudden stratospheric warming ("major final warming", MFW began. By mid-March, the mid-stratospheric vortex split after being displaced far off the pole. The resulting offspring vortices decayed rapidly preceding the full breakdown of the vortex by early April. In the lower stratosphere, the period of temperatures low enough for chlorine activation ended nearly a month earlier than that in 2011 because of the MFW. Ozone loss rates were thus kept in check because there was less sunlight during the cold period. Although the winter mean volume of air in which chemical ozone loss could occur was as large as that in 2010/11, observed ozone values did not drop to the persistently low values reached in 2011.We use MLS trace gas measurements, as well as mixing and polar vortex diagnostics based on meteorological fields, to show how the timing and intensity of the MFW and its impact on transport and mixing halted chemical ozone loss. Our detailed characterization of the polar vortex breakdown includes investigations of individual offspring vortices and the origins and fate of air within them. Comparisons of mixing diagnostics with lower-stratospheric N2O and middle-stratospheric CO from MLS (long-lived tracers show rapid vortex erosion and

High-speed solar wind streams and polar mesosphere winter echoes at Troll, Antarctica

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S. Kirkwood

2015-06-01

Full Text Available A small, 54 MHz wind-profiler radar, MARA, was operated at Troll, Antarctica (72° S, 2.5° E, continuously from November 2011 to January 2014, covering two complete Antarctic winters. Despite very low power, MARA observed echoes from heights of 55–80 km (polar mesosphere winter echoes, PMWE on 60% of all winter days (from March to October. This contrasts with previous reports from radars at high northern latitudes, where PWME have been reported only by very high power radars or during rare periods of unusually high electron density at PMWE heights, such as during solar proton events. Analysis shows that PWME at Troll were not related to solar proton events but were often closely related to the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams (HSS at the Earth, with PWME appearing at heights as low as 56 km and persisting for up to 15 days following HSS arrival. This demonstrates that HSS effects penetrate directly to below 60 km height in the polar atmosphere. Using local observations of cosmic-noise absorption (CNA, a theoretical ionization/ion-chemistry model and a statistical model of precipitating energetic electrons associated with HSS, the electron density conditions during the HSS events are estimated. We find that PMWE detectability cannot be explained by these variations in electron density and molecular-ion chemistry alone. PWME become detectable at different thresholds depending on solar illumination and height. In darkness, PWME are detected only when the modelled electron density is above a threshold of about 1000 cm−3, and only above 75 km height, where negative ions are few. In daylight, the electron density threshold falls by at least 2 orders of magnitude and PWME are found primarily below 75 km height, even in conditions when a large proportion of negative ions is expected. There is also a strong dawn–dusk asymmetry with PWME detected very rarely during morning twilight but often during evening twilight. This behaviour cannot be

High-speed solar wind streams and polar mesosphere winter echoes at Troll, Antarctica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirkwood, S.; Belova, E. [Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna (Sweden). Polar Atmospheric Research; Osepian, A. [Polar Geophysical Institute, Murmansk (Russian Federation); Lee, Y.S. [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-01

A small, 54 MHz wind-profiler radar, MARA, was operated at Troll, Antarctica (72 S, 2.5 E), continuously from November 2011 to January 2014, covering two complete Antarctic winters. Despite very low power, MARA observed echoes from heights of 55-80 km (polar mesosphere winter echoes, PMWE) on 60% of all winter days (from March to October). This contrasts with previous reports from radars at high northern latitudes, where PWME have been reported only by very high power radars or during rare periods of unusually high electron density at PMWE heights, such as during solar proton events. Analysis shows that PWME at Troll were not related to solar proton events but were often closely related to the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) at the Earth, with PWME appearing at heights as low as 56 km and persisting for up to 15 days following HSS arrival. This demonstrates that HSS effects penetrate directly to below 60 km height in the polar atmosphere. Using local observations of cosmic-noise absorption (CNA), a theoretical ionization/ion-chemistry model and a statistical model of precipitating energetic electrons associated with HSS, the electron density conditions during the HSS events are estimated. We find that PMWE detectability cannot be explained by these variations in electron density and molecular-ion chemistry alone. PWME become detectable at different thresholds depending on solar illumination and height. In darkness, PWME are detected only when the modelled electron density is above a threshold of about 1000 cm{sup -3}, and only above 75 km height, where negative ions are few. In daylight, the electron density threshold falls by at least 2 orders of magnitude and PWME are found primarily below 75 km height, even in conditions when a large proportion of negative ions is expected. There is also a strong dawn-dusk asymmetry with PWME detected very rarely during morning twilight but often during evening twilight. This behaviour cannot be explained if PMWE

Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Bintanja, R; Krikken, F

2016-12-02

Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.

Establishment and verification of solar radiation calculation model of glass daylighting roof in hot summer and warm winter zone in China

OpenAIRE

Zheng, Caidan; Wu, Peihao; Costanzo, Vincenzo; Wang, Yuchen; Yang, Xiaokun

2017-01-01

In this paper, solar heat gain through glass daylighting roof is deeply studied by theoretical calculation method, taking Guangzhou in the Hot Summer and Warm Winter (HSWW) zone as an example. The direct solar radiation is calculated by Bouguer formula whereas the diffuse solar radiation is calculated by Berlage formula, representing the basis for the calculation method of the solar radiation intensity through the glass daylighting roof. Through the establishment of solar radiation calculatio...

Long-term changes of South China Sea surface temperatures in winter and summer

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Young-Gyu; Choi, Ara

2017-07-01

Utilizing available atmospheric and oceanographic reanalysis data sets, the long-term trend in South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 and the governing processes are investigated. Both winter and summer SST increased by comparable amounts, but the warming patterns and the governing processes were different. Strong warming in winter occurred in a deep central area, and during summer in the southern region. In winter the net heat flux into the sea increased, contributing to the warming. The spatial pattern of the heat flux, however, was different from that of the warming. Heat flux increased over the coastal area where warming was weaker, but decreased over the deeper area where warming was stronger. The northeasterly monsoon wind weakened lowering the shoreward Ekman transport and the sea surface height gradient. The cyclonic gyre which transports cold northern water to the south weakened, thereby warming the ocean. The effect was manifested more strongly along the southward western boundary current inducing warming in the deep central part. In summer however, the net surface heat flux decreased and could not contribute to the warming. Over the southern part of the SCS, the weakening of the southwesterly summer monsoon reduced southeastward Ekman transport, which is parallel to the mean SST gradient. Southeastward cold advection due to Ekman transport was reduced, thereby warming the surface near the southeastern boundary of the SCS. Upwelling southeast of Vietnam was also weakened, raising the SST east of Vietnam contributing to the southern summer warming secondarily. The weakening of the winds in each season was the ultimate cause of the warming, but the responses of the ocean that lead to the warming were different in winter and summer.

"New Climate" Warmed, "New Atmospheric Circulation" and "Extreme" Meteorological Phenomena associated with El Niño 2015-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Karrouk, M. S.

2016-12-01

Cumulating ocean-atmospheric thermal energy caused by global warming has resulted in the reversal of the energy balance towards the poles. This situation is characterized by a new ocean-continental thermal distribution: over the ocean, the balance is more in excess than in the mainland, if not the opposite when the balance is negative inland.Thanks to satellite observation and daily monitoring of meteorological conditions for more than ten years, we have observed that the positive balance has shifted more towards the poles, mainly in the northern hemisphere. Subtropical anticyclones are strengthened and have extended to high latitudes, especially over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. This situation creates global peaks strengthened in winter periods, and imposes on cosmic cold the deep advection toward the south under the form of planetary valleys "Polar Vortex".This situation imposes on the jet stream a pronounced ripple and installs a meridional atmospheric circulation in winter, which brings the warm tropical air masses to reach the Arctic Circle, and cold polar air masses to reach North Africa and Florida.This situation creates unusual atmospheric events, characterized by hydrothermal "extreme" conditions: excessive heat at high latitudes, accompanied by heavy rains and floods, as well as cold at low latitudes and the appearance of snow in the Sahara!The populations are profoundly influenced by the new phenomena. The socioeconomic infrastructures can no longer assume their basic functions and man when unprotected is weak and hence the advanced vulnerability of all the regions especially those belonging to poor and developing countriesRecent studies have shown that global and regional climate system is affected by extreme events of El Niño. Statistical and dynamic links have been confirmed in Northern Africa and Western Europe; hence the importance of the fall situation and winter 2015-2016.These conditions are the consequences of the "New Climate" warmed

Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae in subarctic bogs are more sensitive to soil warming in the growing season than in winter: the results of eight-year field climate manipulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsyganov, Andrey N; Aerts, Rien; Nijs, Ivan; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Beyens, Louis

2012-05-01

Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming, winter snow addition solely and winter snow addition together with spring warming on testate amoeba assemblages after eight years of experimental field climate manipulations. All manipulations were accomplished using open top chambers in a dry blanket bog located in the sub-Arctic (Abisko, Sweden). We estimated sensitivity of abundance, diversity and assemblage structure of living and empty shell assemblages of testate amoebae in the living and decaying layers of Sphagnum. Our results show that, in a sub-arctic climate, testate amoebae are more sensitive to climate changes in the growing season than in winter. Summer warming reduced species richness and shifted assemblage composition towards predominance of xerophilous species for the living and empty shell assemblages in both layers. The higher soil temperatures during the growing season also decreased abundance of empty shells in both layers hinting at a possible increase in their decomposition rates. Thus, although possible effects of climate changes on preservation of empty shells should always be taken into account, species diversity and structure of testate amoeba assemblages in dry subarctic bogs are sensitive proxies for climatic changes during the growing season. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models

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C. Blume

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA; a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX; a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP; and support vector regression (SVR. These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.

Perspectives in Winter Limnology: Closing the annual cycle of freezing lakes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salonen, K.; Leppäranta, M.; Viljanen, M.; Gulati, R.D.

2009-01-01

Winter has traditionally been considered as an ecologically insignificant season and, together with technical difficulties, this has led winter limnology to lag behind summer limnology. Recently, rapidly expanding interest in climate warming has increased water research in winter. It has also become

Diagnostic Comparison of Meteorological Analyses during the 2002 Antarctic Winter

Science.gov (United States)

Manney, Gloria L.; Allen, Douglas R.; Kruger, Kirstin; Naujokat, Barbara; Santee, Michelle L.; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Pawson, Steven; Swinbank, Richard; Randall, Cora E.; Simmons, Adrian J.;

Features of ozone intraannual variability in polar regions based on ozone sounding data obtained at the Resolute and Amundsen-Scott stations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gruzdev, A.N.; Sitnov, S.A. (AN SSSR, Institut Fiziki Atmosfery, Moscow (USSR))

1991-04-01

Ozone sounding data obtained at the Resolute and Amundsen-Scott stations are used to analyze ozone intraannual variability in Southern and Northern polar regions. For the Arctic, in particular, features associated with winter stratospheric warmings, stratospheric-tropospheric exchange, and the isolated evolution of surface ozone are noted. Correlative connections between ozone and temperature making it possible to concretize ozone variability mechanisms are analyzed. 31 refs.

Temperature Trends in the Polar Mesosphere between 2002-2007 using TIMED/SABER Data

Science.gov (United States)

Goldberg, Richard A.; Kutepov, Alexander A.; Pesnell, William Dean; Latteck, Ralph; Russell, James M.

2008-01-01

The TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The TIMED/SABER instrument is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure a large number of minor constituents as well as the temperature of the region. In this study, we have concentrated on the polar mesosphere, to investigate the temperature characteristics as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We used the recently revised SABER dataset (1.07) that contains improved temperature retrievals in the Earth polar summer regions. Weekly averages are used to make comparisons between the winter and summer, as well as to study the variability in different quadrants of each hemisphere. For each year studied, the duration of polar summer based on temperature measurements compares favorably with the PMSE (Polar Mesospheric Summer Echoes) season measured by radar at the ALOMAR Observatory in Norway (69 N). The PMSE period should also define the summer period suitable for the occurrence of polar mesospheric clouds. The unusual short and relatively warm polar summer in the northern hemisphere

Vertical Wave Coupling associated with Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events analyzed in an Isentropic-Coordinate NWP Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bleck, R.; Sun, S.; Benjamin, S.; Brown, J. M.

2017-12-01

Two- to four-week predictions of stratospheric sudden warming events during the winter seasons of 1999-2014, carried out with a high-resolution icosahedral NWP model using potential temperature as vertical coordinate, are inspected for commonalities in the evolution of both minor and major warmings. Emphasis is on the evolution of the potential vorticity field at different levels in the stratosphere, as well as on the sign and magnitude of the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux vector suggestive of wave forcing in either direction. Material is presented shedding light on the skill of the model (FIM, developed at NOAA/ESRL) in predicting stratospheric warmings generally 2 weeks in advance. With an icosahedral grid ideally suited for studying polar processes, and a vertical coordinate faithfully reproducing details in the evolution of the potential vorticity and EP flux vector fields, FIM is found to be a good tool for investigating the SSW mechanism.

Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

Science.gov (United States)

Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

2015-10-01

Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unusial winter 2011/2012 in Slovakia

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Faško, P.; Lapin, M.; Matejovič, P.; Pecho, Jozef

2012-01-01

Roč. 15, č. 1 (2012), s. 19-26 ISSN 1335-339X Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : winter characteristics * climate variabilit * climate change * global warming Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

Role of the ocean mixed layer processes in the response of the North Pacific winter SST and MLD to global warming in CGCMs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign [Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Global Environmental Laboratory, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yeh, Sang-Wook [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea, Republic of)

2012-03-15

It is investigated how the changes of winter sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth (MLD) under climate change projections are predicted differently in the North Pacific depending on the coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), and how they are related to the dynamical property of the simulated ocean mixed layer. For this purpose the dataset from eleven CGCMs reported to IPCC's AR4 are used, while detailed analysis is given to the MRI and MIROC models. Analysis of the CGCM data reveals that the increase of SST and the decrease of MLD in response to global warming tend to be smaller for the CGCM in which the ratio of ocean heat transport (OHT) to surface heat flux (SHF), R (=OHT/SHF), is larger in the heat budget of the mixed layer. The negative correlation is found between the changes of OHT and SHF under global warming, which may weaken the response to global warming in the CGCM with larger R. It is also found that the models with low horizontal resolution tend to give broader western boundary currents, larger R, and the smaller changes of SST and MLD under global warming. (orig.)

Intensified Arctic warming under greenhouse warming by vegetation–atmosphere–sea ice interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Linderholm, Hans W; Chen, Deliang; Kim, Baek-Min; Jun, Sang-Yoon

2014-01-01

Observations and modeling studies indicate that enhanced vegetation activities over high latitudes under an elevated CO 2 concentration accelerate surface warming by reducing the surface albedo. In this study, we suggest that vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interactions over high latitudes can induce an additional amplification of Arctic warming. Our hypothesis is tested by a series of coupled vegetation-climate model simulations under 2xCO 2 environments. The increased vegetation activities over high latitudes under a 2xCO 2 condition induce additional surface warming and turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which are transported to the Arctic through the atmosphere. This causes additional sea-ice melting and upper-ocean warming during the warm season. As a consequence, the Arctic and high-latitude warming is greatly amplified in the following winter and spring, which further promotes vegetation activities the following year. We conclude that the vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction gives rise to additional positive feedback of the Arctic amplification. (letter)

Nonmigrating tidal activity related to the sudden stratospheric warming in the Arctic winter of 2003/2004

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Pancheva

2009-03-01

Full Text Available This paper is focused on the nonmigrating tidal activity seen in the SABER/TIMED temperatures that is related to the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW taking place in the Arctic winter of 2003/2004. The emphasis is on the nonmigrating diurnal tides observed in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere which is usually accepted to be insignificant in comparison with that in the upper mesosphere and thermosphere. By using different independent spectral methods we found a significant amplification in December–January of the following nonmigrating 24-h tides: zonally symmetric (s=0, eastward propagating with zonal wavenumber 1 (E1, and westward propagating with zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3 (W2 and W3 tides. It has been found that the double peak nonmigrating tidal amplifications located in the stratosphere (~40 km and in the lower mesosphere (~70 km are a consequence of the maintained hydrostatic relation. By detailed comparison of the evolution and spatial structure of the nonmigrating diurnal tides with those of the migrating diurnal tide and stationary planetary waves (SPWs evidence for a SPW-migrating tide interaction as a source of nonmigrating tides has been presented. Therefore, the nonmigrating 24-h tides turn out to be an important component of the middle atmosphere dynamics during the major SSW in the Arctic winter of 2003/2004.

Improving Conservation of Florida Manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris): Conceptualization and Contributions Toward a Regional Warm-Water Network Management Strategy for Sustainable Winter Habitat

Science.gov (United States)

Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig

2013-01-01

We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.

The Anomalous Winter of 1783-1784: Was the Laki Eruption or an Analog of the 2009-2010 Winter to Blame?

Science.gov (United States)

D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Seager, Richard; Smerdon, Jason E.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Cook, Edward R.

2011-01-01

The multi ]stage eruption of the Icelandic volcano Laki beginning in June, 1783 is speculated to have caused unusual dry fog and heat in western Europe and cold in North America during the 1783 summer, and record cold and snow the subsequent winter across the circum-North Atlantic. Despite the many indisputable impacts of the Laki eruption, however, its effect on climate, particularly during the 1783.1784 winter, may be the most poorly constrained. Here we test an alternative explanation for the unusual conditions during this time: that they were caused primarily by a combined negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and an El Nino ]Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm event. A similar combination of NAO ]ENSO phases was identified as the cause of record cold and snowy conditions during the 2009.2010 winter in Europe and eastern North America. 600-year tree-ring reconstructions of NAO and ENSO indices reveal values in the 1783.1784 winter second only to their combined severity in 2009.2010. Data sources and model simulations support our hypothesis that a combined, negative NAO ]ENSO warm phase was the dominant cause of the anomalous winter of 1783.1784, and that these events likely resulted from natural variability unconnected to Laki.

Coupling in the middle atmosphere related to the 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. J. de Wit

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The previously reported observation of anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing at mesopause heights around the onset of the January 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW over Trondheim, Norway (63° N, 10° E, is placed in a global perspective using Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS temperature observations from the Aura satellite. It is shown that this anomalous forcing results in a clear cooling over Trondheim about 10 km below mesopause heights. Conversely, near the mesopause itself, where the gravity wave forcing was measured, observations with meteor radar, OH airglow and MLS show no distinct cooling. Polar cap zonal mean temperatures show a similar vertical profile. Longitudinal variability in the high northern-latitude mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT is characterized by a quasi-stationary wave-1 structure, which reverses phase at altitudes below ~ 0.1 hPa. This wave-1 develops prior to the SSW onset, and starts to propagate westward at the SSW onset. The latitudinal pole-to-pole temperature structure associated with the major SSW shows a warming (cooling in the winter stratosphere (mesosphere which extends to about 40° N. In the stratosphere, a cooling extending over the equator and far into the summer hemisphere is observed, whereas in the mesosphere an equatorial warming is noted. In the Southern Hemisphere mesosphere, a warm anomaly overlaying a cold anomaly is present, which is shown to propagate downward in time. This observed structure is in accordance with the temperature perturbations predicted by the proposed interhemispheric coupling mechanism for cases of increased winter stratospheric planetary wave activity, of which major SSWs are an extreme case. These results provide observational evidence for the interhemispheric coupling mechanism, and for the wave-mean flow interaction believed to be responsible for the establishment of the anomalies in the summer hemisphere.

Variations of Kelvin waves around the TTL region during the stratospheric sudden warming events in the Northern Hemisphere winter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Jia

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variabilities of Kelvin waves during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW events are investigated by the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and the results are validated by the COSMIC temperature data. A case study on an exceptionally large SSW event in 2009, and a composite analysis comprising 18 events from 1980 to 2013 are presented. During SSW events, the average temperature increases by 20 K in the polar stratosphere, while the temperature in the tropical stratosphere decreases by about 4 K. Kelvin wave with wave numbers 1 and 2, and periods 10–20 days, clearly appear around the tropical tropopause layer (TTL during SSWs. The Kelvin wave activity shows obvious coupling with the convection localized in the India Ocean and western Pacific (Indo-Pacific region. Detailed analysis suggests that the enhanced meridional circulation driven by the extratropical planetary wave forcing during SSW events leads to tropical upwelling, which further produces temperature decrease in the tropical stratosphere. The tropical upwelling and cooling consequently result in enhancement of convection in the equatorial region, which excites the strong Kelvin wave activity. In addition, we investigated the Kelvin wave acceleration to the eastward zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere during SSW events. The composite analysis shows that the proportion of Kelvin wave contribution ranges from 5 to 35 % during SSWs, much larger than in the non-SSW mid-winters (less than 5 % in the stratosphere. However, the Kelvin wave alone is insufficient to drive the equatorial eastward zonal wind anomalies during the SSW events, which suggests that the effects of other types of equatorial waves may not be neglected.

Global Warming, New Climate, New Atmospheric Circulation and New Water Cycle in North Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Karrouk, M. S.

2017-12-01

Global warming has now reached the energetic phase of H2O's return to the ground after the saturation of the atmosphere in evaporation since the 80s and 90s of the last century, which were characterized by severe droughts, mainly in Africa.This phase is the result of the accumulation of thermal energy exchanges in the Earth-Ocean-Atmosphere system that resulted in the thrust reversal of the energy balance toward the poles. This situation is characterized by a new thermal distribution: above the ocean, the situation is more in surplus compared to the mainland, or even opposite when the balance is negative on the land, and in the atmosphere, warm thermal advection easily reach the North Pole (planetary crests), as well as cold advection push deep into North Africa and the Gulf of Mexico (planetary valleys: Polar Vortex).This "New Ground Energy Balance" establishes a "New Meridian Atmospheric Circulation (MAC)" with an undulating character throughout the year, including the winter characterized by intense latitudinal very active energy exchanges between the surplus areas (tropical) and the deficit (polar) on the one hand, and the atmosphere, the ocean and the continent on the other.The excess radiation balance increases the potential evaporation of the atmosphere and provides a new geographical distribution of Moisture and Water worldwide: the excess water vapor is easily converted by cold advection (Polar Vortex) to heavy rains that cause floods or snow storms that paralyze the normal functioning of human activities, which creates many difficulties for users and leaves damage and casualties, but ensures water availability missing since a long time in many parts of the world, in Africa, Europe and America.The new thermal distribution reorganizes the geography of atmospheric pressure: the ocean energy concentration is transmitted directly to the atmosphere, and the excess torque is pushed northward. The Azores anticyclone is strengthened and is a global lock by the

Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania.

Science.gov (United States)

Juknys, Romualdas; Velička, Rimantas; Kanapickas, Arvydas; Kriaučiūnienė, Zita; Masilionytė, Laura; Vagusevičienė, Ilona; Pupalienė, Rita; Klepeckas, Martynas; Sujetovienė, Gintarė

2017-10-01

Climate warming and a shift in the timing of phenological phases, which lead to changes in the duration of the vegetation period may have an essential impact on the productivity of winter crops. The main purpose of this study is to examine climate change-related long-term (1961-2015) changes in the duration of both initial (pre-winter) and main (post-winter) winter wheat vegetation seasons and to present the projection of future phenological changes until the end of this century. Delay and shortening of pre-winter vegetation period, as well as the advancement and slight extension of the post-winter vegetation period, resulted in the reduction of whole winter wheat vegetation period by more than 1 week over the investigated 55 years. Projected changes in the timing of phenological phases which define limits of a main vegetation period differ essentially from the observed period. According to pessimistic (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) scenario, the advancement of winter wheat maturity phase by almost 30 days and the shortening of post-winter vegetation season by 15 days are foreseen for a far (2071-2100) projection. An increase in the available chilling amount is specific not only to the investigated historical period (1960-2015) but also to the projected period according to the climate change scenarios of climate warming for all three projection periods. Consequently, the projected climate warming does not pose a threat of plant vernalization shortage in the investigated geographical latitudes.

North-south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, Anders; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2017-09-19

There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply side-through the mitigation of greenhouse gases-and from the demand side-through adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the world's third-largest electricity market-the 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level dose-response functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006-2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common dose-response function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each country's currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on today's European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigation-in line with the Paris agreement-to unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (∼3 to ∼7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (∼-6 to ∼-2% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity.

Large-scale irregularities of the winter polar topside ionosphere according to data from Swarm satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Lukianova, R. Yu.; Bogoutdinov, Sh. R.

2017-11-01

An analysis of the electron density measurements ( Ne) along the flyby trajectories over the high-latitude region of the Northern Hemisphere under winter conditions in 2014 and 2016 has shown that the main large-scale structure observed by Swarm satellites is the tongue of ionization (TOI). At the maximum of the solar cycle ( F 10.7 = 160), the average value of Ne in the TOI region at an altitude of 500 km was 8 × 104 cm-3. Two years later, at F 10.7 = 100, Ne 5 × 104 cm-3 and Ne 2.5 × 104 cm-3 were observed at altitudes of 470 and 530 km, respectively. During the dominance of the azimuthal component of the interplanetary magnetic field, the TOI has been observed mainly on the dawn or dusk side depending on the sign of B y . Simultaneous observations of the convective plasma drift velocity in the polar cap show the transpolar flow drift to the dawn ( B y y generation of large-scale irregularities in the polar ionosphere.

Collapse of the 2017 Winter Beaufort High: A Response to Thinning Sea Ice?

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, G. W. K.; Schweiger, A.; Zhang, J.; Steele, M.

2018-03-01

The winter Arctic atmosphere is under the influence of two very different circulation systems: extratropical cyclones travel along the primary North Atlantic storm track from Iceland toward the eastern Arctic, while the western Arctic is characterized by a quasi-stationary region of high pressure known as the Beaufort High. The winter (January through March) of 2017 featured an anomalous reversal of the normally anticyclonic surface winds and sea ice motion in the western Arctic. This reversal can be traced to a collapse of the Beaufort High as the result of the intrusion of low-pressure systems from the North Atlantic, along the East Siberian Coast, into the Arctic Basin. Thin sea ice as the result of an extremely warm autumn (October through December) of 2016 contributed to the formation of an anomalous thermal low over the Barents Sea that, along with a northward shift of the tropospheric polar vortex, permitted this intrusion. The collapse of the Beaufort High during the winter of 2017 was associated with simultaneous 2-sigma sea level pressure, surface wind, and sea ice circulation anomalies in the western Arctic. As the Arctic sea ice continues to thin, such reversals may become more common and impact ocean circulation, sea ice, and biology.

Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Luedeling, Eike; Girvetz, Evan H; Semenov, Mikhail A; Brown, Patrick H

2011-01-01

Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields. We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4,293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections, Safe Winter Chill (SWC), the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years, was estimated for all scenarios using the "Dynamic Model" and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios, but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill, potentially threatening production there. In contrast, SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged, and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios, with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions, compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG. The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts, however, adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change, efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements, to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill, and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops.

Polar Frontal Migration in the Warm Late Pliocene: Diatom Evidence from The Wilkes Land Margin, East Antarctic

Science.gov (United States)

Riesselman, C. R.; Taylor-Silva, B.; Patterson, M. O.

2017-12-01

The Late Pliocene is the most recent interval in Earth's history to sustain global temperatures within the range of warming predicted for the 21st century. Published global reconstructions and climate models find an average +2° C summer SST anomaly relative to modern during the 3.3-3.0 Ma PRISM interval, when atmospheric CO2 concentrations last reached 400 ppm. Here, we present a new diatom-based reconstruction of Pliocene interglacial sea surface conditions from IODP Site U1361, on the East Antarctic continental rise. U1361 biogenic silica concentrations document the alternation of diatom-rich and diatom-poor lithologies; we interpret 8 diatom-rich mudstones within this sequence to record interglacial periods between 3.8 and 2.8 Ma. We find that open-ocean conditions in the mid-Pliocene became increasingly influenced by sea ice from 3.6-3.2 Ma, prior to the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This cooling trend was interrupted by a temporary southward migration of the Antarctic Polar Front, bathing U1361 in warmer subantarctic waters during a single interglacial, marine isotope stage KM3 (3.17-3.15 Ma), that corresponds to a maximum in summer insolation at 65°S. Following this interval of transient warmth, interglacial periods became progressively cooler starting at 3 Ma, coinciding with a transition from obliquity to precession as the dominant orbital driver of Antarctic ice sheet fluctuations. Building on the identification of a single outlier interglacial within the PRISM interval, we have revisited older reconstructions to explore the response of the Southern Ocean/cryosphere system to peak late Pliocene warmth. By applying a modern chronostratigraphic framework to those low-resolution "mean interglacial" records, we identify the same frontal migration in 4 other cores in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, documenting a major migration of the polar front during a key interval of warm climate. These new results suggest that increased summer

On the relation between ionospheric winter anomalies and solar wind

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rumi, G.C.

2001-01-01

There are two different winter anomalies. A small one that appears in connection with ionization at relatively low latitudes in the bottom of the D-region of the ionosphere. There, the electron densities in the winter happen to be less than should be expected. On the other hand, the classic winter anomaly is present when in the winter the upper D-region, again at relatively low latitudes, has more ionization than should be expected. Both these effects are due to the slant compression of the geomagnetic field produced by the solar wind in the wind in the winter season (which is, of course, the summer season when reference is made to events in the other hemisphere). It is shown that the small winter anomaly is a consequence of a hemispheric imbalance in the flux of galactic cosmic rays determined by the obliquely distorted geomagnetic field. It is shown that the standard winter anomaly can be ascribed to the influx of a super solar wind, which penetrates into the Earth's polar atmosphere down to E-region, heights and, duly concentrated through a funneling action at the winter pole of the distorted geomagnetic field, slows down the winter polar vortex. An equatorward motion of the polar air with its content of nitric oxide brings about the excess of ionization in the upper D-region at lower latitudes. The experimentally observed rhythmic recurrence of the upper winter anomaly is correlated to a possible rhythmic recurrence of the super solar wind. The actual detection of the upper winter anomaly could yield some information on the velocity of the basic solar wind. A by-product of the present analysis, the determination of Γ, the coefficient of collisional detachment of the electrons from the O 2 - ions, is presented in the Appendix

On the relation between ionospheric winter anomalies and solar wind

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rumi, G.C. [Lecco, (Italy)

2001-06-01

There are two different winter anomalies. A small one that appears in connection with ionization at relatively low latitudes in the bottom of the D-region of the ionosphere. There, the electron densities in the winter happen to be less than should be expected. On the other hand, the classic winter anomaly is present when in the winter the upper D-region, again at relatively low latitudes, has more ionization than should be expected. Both these effects are due to the slant compression of the geomagnetic field produced by the solar wind in the wind in the winter season (which is, of course, the summer season when reference is made to events in the other hemisphere). It is shown that the small winter anomaly is a consequence of a hemispheric imbalance in the flux of galactic cosmic rays determined by the obliquely distorted geomagnetic field. It is shown that the standard winter anomaly can be ascribed to the influx of a super solar wind, which penetrates into the Earth's polar atmosphere down to E-region, heights and, duly concentrated through a funneling action at the winter pole of the distorted geomagnetic field, slows down the winter polar vortex. An equatorward motion of the polar air with its content of nitric oxide brings about the excess of ionization in the upper D-region at lower latitudes. The experimentally observed rhythmic recurrence of the upper winter anomaly is correlated to a possible rhythmic recurrence of the super solar wind. The actual detection of the upper winter anomaly could yield some information on the velocity of the basic solar wind. A by-product of the present analysis, the determination of {gamma}, the coefficient of collisional detachment of the electrons from the O{sub 2} {sup -} ions, is presented in the Appendix.

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

A successful forecast of an El Nino winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerr, R.A.

1992-01-01

This year, for the first time, weather forecasters used signs of a warming in the tropical Pacific as the basis for a long-range prediction of winter weather patterns across the United States. Now forecasters are talking about the next step: stretching the lead time for such forecasts by a year or more. That seems feasible because although this Pacific warming was unmistakable by the time forecasters at the National Weather Service's Climate Analysis Center (CAC) in Camp Springs, Maryland, issued their winter forecast, the El Nino itself had been predicted almost 2 years in advance by a computer model. Next time around, the CAC may well be listening to the modelers and predicting El Nino-related patterns of warmth and flooding seasons in advance

North–south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming

Science.gov (United States)

Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, Anders; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2017-01-01

There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply side—through the mitigation of greenhouse gases—and from the demand side—through adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the world’s third-largest electricity market—the 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level dose–response functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006–2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common dose–response function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each country’s currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on today’s European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigation—in line with the Paris agreement—to unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (∼3 to ∼7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (∼−6 to ∼−2% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity. PMID:28847939

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, Hoffman H. N.; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Zhou, Wen

2018-01-01

We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December-March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals-Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.

Fungi regulate response of N2O production to warming and grazing in a Tibetan grassland

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Lei; Wang, Shiping; Xu, Xingliang; Wang, Yanfen; Rui, Yichao; Zhou, Xiaoqi; Shen, Qinhua; Wang, Jinzhi; Jiang, Lili; Luo, Caiyun; Gu, Tianbao; Ma, Wenchao; Chen, Guanyi

2018-03-01

Lack of understanding of the effects of warming and winter grazing on soil fungal contribution to nitrous oxide (N2O) production has limited our ability to predict N2O fluxes under changes in climate and land use management, because soil fungi play an important role in driving terrestrial N cycling. Here, we examined the effects of 10 years' warming and winter grazing on soil N2O emissions potential in an alpine meadow. Our results showed that soil bacteria and fungi contributed 46 % and 54 % to nitrification, and 37 % and 63 % to denitrification, respectively. Neither warming nor winter grazing affected the activity of enzymes responsible for overall nitrification and denitrification. However, warming significantly increased the enzyme activity of bacterial nitrification and denitrification to 53 % and 55 %, respectively. Warming significantly decreased enzyme activity of fungal nitrification and denitrification to 47 % and 45 %, respectively, while winter grazing had no such effect. We conclude that soil fungi could be the main source for N2O production potential in the Tibetan alpine grasslands. Warming and winter grazing may not affect the potential for soil N2O production potential, but climate warming can alter biotic pathways responsible for N2O production. These findings indicate that characterizing how fungal nitrification/denitrification contributes to N2O production, as well as how it responds to environmental and land use changes, can advance our understanding of N cycling. Therefore, our results provide some new insights about ecological controls on N2O production and lead to refine greenhouse gas flux models.

Understanding factors influencing vulnerable older people keeping warm and well in winter: a qualitative study using social marketing techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Tod, Angela Mary; Lusambili, Adelaide; Homer, Catherine; Abbott, Joanne; Cooke, Joanne Mary; Stocks, Amanda Jayne; McDaid, Kathleen Anne

2012-01-01

To understand the influences and decisions of vulnerable older people in relation to keeping warm in winter. A qualitative study incorporating in-depth, semi-structured individual and group interviews, framework analysis and social marketing segmentation techniques. Rotherham, South Yorkshire, UK. 50 older people (>55) and 25 health and social care staff underwent individual interview. The older people also had household temperature measurements. 24 older people and 19 health and social care staff participated in one of the six group interviews. Multiple complex factors emerged to explain whether vulnerable older people were able to keep warm. These influences combined in various ways that meant older people were not able to or preferred not to access help or change home heating behaviour. Factors influencing behaviours and decisions relating to use of heating, spending money, accessing cheaper tariffs, accessing benefits or asking for help fell into three main categories. These were situational and contextual factors, attitudes and values, and barriers. Barriers included poor knowledge and awareness, technology, disjointed systems and the invisibility of fuel and fuel payment. Findings formed the basis of a social marketing segmentation model used to develop six pen portraits that illustrated how factors that conspire against older people being able to keep warm. The findings illustrate how and why vulnerable older people may be at risk of a cold home. The pen portraits provide an accessible vehicle and reflective tool to raise the capacity of the NHS in responding to their needs in line with the Cold Weather Plan.

Winter cooling in the northern Arabian Sea

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

PrasannaKumar, S.; Prasad, T.G.

forcing that leads to the observed high productivity during winter in the northern Arabian Sea. The weak northerly winds and increased solar insolation during the inter-monsoon period, led to the development of a highly stratified upper layer with warm sea...

Effects of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Identified in Midlatitude Mesospheric Rayleigh-Scatter Lidar Temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Sox, L.; Wickwar, V. B.; Fish, C. S.; Herron, J. P.

2014-12-01

Mesospheric temperature anomalies associated with Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) have been observed extensively in the polar regions. However, observations of these anomalies at midlatitudes are sparse. The very dense 11-year data set, collected between 1993-2004, with the Rayleigh-scatter lidar at the Atmospheric Lidar Observatory (ALO; 41.7°N, 111.8°W) at the Center for Atmospheric and Space Sciences (CASS) on the campus of Utah State University (USU), has been carefully examined for such anomalies. The temperatures derived from these data extend over the mesosphere, from 45 to 90 km. During this period extensive data were acquired during seven major SSW events. In this work we aim to determine the characteristics of the midlatitude mesospheric temperatures during these seven major SSWs. To do this, comparisons were made between the temperature profiles on individual nights before, during, and after the SSW events and the corresponding derived climatological temperature profiles (31-day by 11-year average) for those nights. A consistent disturbance pattern was observed in the mesospheric temperatures during these SSWs. A distinct shift from the nominal winter temperature pattern to a pattern more characteristic of summer temperatures was seen in the midlatitude mesosphere close to when the zonal winds in the polar stratosphere (at 10 hPa, 60° N) reversed from eastward to westward. This shift lasted for several days. This change in pattern included coolings in the upper mesosphere, comparable to those seen in the polar regions, and warmings in the lower mesosphere.

Winter temperature affects the prevalence of ticks in an Arctic seabird.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sébastien Descamps

Full Text Available The Arctic is rapidly warming and host-parasite relationships may be modified by such environmental changes. Here, I showed that the average winter temperature in Svalbard, Arctic Norway, explained almost 90% of the average prevalence of ticks in an Arctic seabird, the Brünnich's guillemot Uria lomvia. An increase of 1°C in the average winter temperature at the nesting colony site was associated with a 5% increase in the number of birds infected by these ectoparasites in the subsequent breeding season. Guillemots were generally infested by only a few ticks (≤5 and I found no direct effect of tick presence on their body condition and breeding success. However, the strong effect of average winter temperature described here clearly indicates that tick-seabird relationships in the Arctic may be strongly affected by ongoing climate warming.

On the sizes and observable effects of dust particles in polar mesospheric winter echoes

Science.gov (United States)

Havnes, O.; Kassa, M.

2009-05-01

In the present paper, recent radar and heating experiments on the polar mesospheric winter echoes (PMWE) are analyzed with the radar overshoot model. The PMWE dust particles that influence the radar backscatter most likely have sizes around 3 nm. For dust to influence the electrons in the PMWE layers, it must be charged; therefore, we have discussed the charging of nanometer-sized particles and found that the photodetachment effect, where photons of energy less than the work function of the dust material can remove excess electrons, probably is dominant at sunlit conditions. For moderate and low electron densities, very few of the dust smaller than ˜3 nm will be charged. We suggest that the normal requirement that disturbed magnetospheric conditions with ionizing precipitation must be present to create observable PMWE is needed mainly to create sufficiently high electron densities to overcome the photodetachment effect and charge the PMWE dust particles. We have also suggested other possible effects of the photodetachment on the occurrence rate of the PMWE. We attribute the lack of PMWE-like radar scattering layers in the lower mesosphere during the summer not only to a lower level of turbulence than in winter but also to that dust particles are removed from these layers due to the upward wind draught in the summer mesospheric circulation system. It is likely that this last effect will completely shut off the PMWE-like radar layers in the lower parts of the mesosphere.

Polar winter cloud depolarization measurements with the CANDAC Rayleigh-Mie-Raman Lidar

Science.gov (United States)

McCullough, E. M.; Nott, G. J.; Duck, T. J.; Sica, R. J.; Doyle, J. G.; Pike-thackray, C.; Drummond, J. R.

2011-12-01

Clouds introduce a significant positive forcing to the Arctic radiation budget and this is strongest during the polar winter when shortwave radiation is absent (Intrieri et al., 2002). The amount of forcing depends on the occurrence probability and optical depth of the clouds as well as the cloud particle phase (Ebert and Curry 1992). Mixed-phase clouds are particularly complex as they involve interactions between three phases of water (vapour, liquid and ice) coexisting in the same cloud. Although significant progress has been made in characterizing wintertime Arctic clouds (de Boer et al., 2009 and 2011), there is considerable variability in the relative abundance of particles of each phase, in the morphology of solid particles, and in precipitation rates depending on the meteorology at the time. The Canadian Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Change (CANDAC) Rayleigh-Mie-Raman Lidar (CRL) was installed in the Canadian High Arctic at Eureka, Nunavut (80°N, 86°W) in 2008-2009. The remotely-operated system began with measurement capabilities for multi-wavelength aerosol extinction, water vapour mixing ratio, and tropospheric temperature profiles, as well as backscatter cross section coefficient and colour ratio. In 2010, a new depolarization channel was added. The capability to measure the polarization state of the return signal allows the characterization of the cloud in terms of liquid and ice water content, enabling the lidar to probe all three phases of water in these clouds. Lidar depolarization results from 2010 and 2011 winter clouds at Eureka will be presented, with a focus on differences in downwelling radiation between mixed phase clouds and ice clouds. de Boer, G., E.W. Eloranta, and M.D. Shupe (2009), Arctic mixed-phase stratiform cloud properties from multiple years of surface-based measurements at two high-latitude locations, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 66 (9), 2874-2887. de Boer, G., H. Morrison, M. D. Shupe, and R. Hildner (2011

Subseasonal Reversal of East Asian Surface Temperature Variability in Winter 2014/15

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xinping; Li, Fei; He, Shengping; Wang, Huijun

2018-06-01

Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover (ASIC) in September-October 2014 was lower than normal, and warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurred in the Niño4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO|+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO|+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Niño4 phase (autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO|+ phase modulation, warm Niño4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January-February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January-February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO|+ phase, the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia.

Stay Warm in Winter (A Cup of Health with CDC)

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

When frigid winter temperatures hit the U.S., the risk for unhealthy exposure to cold increases substantially. In this podcast, Dr. Jonathan Meiman discusses the dangers of exposure to extremely cold temperatures.

Polar Bear Population Status in the Southern Beaufort Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Regehr, Eric V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, Ian

2006-01-01

Polar bears depend entirely on sea ice for survival. In recent years, a warming climate has caused major changes in the Arctic sea ice environment, leading to concerns regarding the status of polar bear populations. Here we present findings from long-term studies of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) region of the U.S. and Canada, which are relevant to these concerns. We applied open population capture-recapture models to data collected from 2001 to 2006, and estimated there were 1,526 (95% CI = 1,211; 1,841) polar bears in the SBS region in 2006. The number of polar bears in this region was previously estimated to be approximately 1,800. Because precision of earlier estimates was low, our current estimate of population size and the earlier ones cannot be statistically differentiated. For the 2001-06 period, the best fitting capture-recapture model provided estimates of total apparent survival of 0.43 for cubs of the year (COYs), and 0.92 for all polar bears older than COYs. Because the survival rates for older polar bears included multiple sex and age strata, they could not be compared to previous estimates. Survival rates for COYs, however, were significantly lower than estimates derived in earlier studies (P = 0.03). The lower survival of COYs was corroborated by a comparison of the number of COYs per adult female for periods before (1967-89) and after (1990-2006) the winter of 1989-90, when warming temperatures and altered atmospheric circulation caused an abrupt change in sea ice conditions in the Arctic basin. In the latter period, there were significantly more COYs per adult female in the spring (P = 0.02), and significantly fewer COYs per adult female in the autumn (P adult males captured from 1990 to 2006 were smaller than those captured before 1990. The smaller stature of males was especially notable because it corresponded with a higher mean age of adult males. Male polar bears continue to grow into their teens, and if adequately nourished

BLIZZARDS OF THE WINTER OF 2011-2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ION MARINICĂ

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the main blizzards from the winter of 2011-2012, caused by the radical weather change on January 25th, 2012. After the excessively droughty autumn of 2011 (Marinică, Marinică, 2012, the warm December on the whole was followed by a warm January in the first 25 days, and then a sudden change of the thermal time type occurred. The excessively cold interval January 26th- February 15th, 2012 caused many human victims in the entire country and at the level of the whole European continent, as well as significant material damages, this short episode of severe winter has been one of the coldest of the history of climatic observations. The analysis is a continuation of extended studies on the ever-growing climatic oscillations and risks, as a consequence of the climatic variability increase in Romania (Bogdan, Marinică, 2007, 2009.The paper is useful for a broad category of specialists interested in the climate and climatic risk.

Loss of sea ice during winter north of Svalbard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ingrid H. Onarheim

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean has up to now been strongest during summer. In contrast, the sea ice concentration north of Svalbard has experienced a larger decline during winter since 1979. The trend in winter ice area loss is close to 10% per decade, and concurrent with a 0.3°C per decade warming of the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean in this region. Simultaneously, there has been a 2°C per decade warming of winter mean surface air temperature north of Svalbard, which is 20–45% higher than observations on the west coast. Generally, the ice edge north of Svalbard has retreated towards the northeast, along the Atlantic Water pathway. By making reasonable assumptions about the Atlantic Water volume and associated heat transport, we show that the extra oceanic heat brought into the region is likely to have caused the sea ice loss. The reduced sea ice cover leads to more oceanic heat transferred to the atmosphere, suggesting that part of the atmospheric warming is driven by larger open water area. In contrast to significant trends in sea ice concentration, Atlantic Water temperature and air temperature, there is no significant temporal trend in the local winds. Thus, winds have not caused the long-term warming or sea ice loss. However, the dominant winds transport sea ice from the Arctic Ocean into the region north of Svalbard, and the local wind has influence on the year-to-year variability of the ice concentration, which correlates with surface air temperatures, ocean temperatures, as well as the local wind.

Stay Warm in Winter (A Minute of Health with CDC)

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2015-02-26

Hypothermia occurs when the core body temperature is less than 95 degrees. This podcast discusses strategies to prevent hypothermia due to frigid winters temperatures.  Created: 2/26/2015 by MMWR.   Date Released: 2/26/2015.

Soil warming for utilization and dissipation of waste heat in Pennsylvania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeWalle, D.R.; Chapura, A.M. Jr.

1978-01-01

The feasibility of using soil warming for utilization and dissipation of reject heat from power plants was demonstrated in a year-long test operation of a field prototype in Pennsylvania. A parallel network of 5-mm-diam polyethylene pipes was buried at a 0.3-m depth and with 0.6-m spacing in the soil covering a 15- x 60-m area to convey hot water simulating condenser cooling water from a power plant. Crop response to the heated soil varied: Snap beans and warm season forage crops such as sudangrass responded with increased yields, while cool season forage crops experienced decreased yields. Winter wheat yields were also increased, but winter barley was winter-killed due to delayed development of cold tolerance in the warm soil. Heat dissipation from the buried pipes was primarily by thermal conduction to the soil surface. Rates of heat loss from the buried pipes were most accurately predicted using an equation that included an explicit term for heat conduction below the pipes. Estimated soil warming land area necessary to dissipate all the reject heat from a 33% efficiency, 1500-MW electrical power plant based on minimum measured summer heat loss rates was 76 km 2 compared to the economic optimum of 18.2 km 2 determined as the least-cost system

Ventimolina stellata gen. et sp. nov. (Haptophyta, Papposphaeraceae) from warm water regions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Helge Abildhauge; Østergaard, Jette B.; Cros, Lluïsa

2015-01-01

It has been known for some time that the distinctive polar weakly calcified coccolithophores are also present in samples from lower latitudes. While polar species may actually have a geographic range that vastly extends beyond the polar realms, it is often the case that the warm water regions...... contribute species that can be allocated to genera previously described based on polar material. We are currently in the process of formally dealing with the warm water species diversity affiliated with the family Papposphaeraceae. In this paper we describe a new genus and species Ventimolina stellata based...

Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

2015-02-01

Higher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling studies have focused on the magnitude and frequency of extreme events during the growth period but did not consider the effect of higher temperature on crop phenology. Based on an extensive set of climate and phenology observations for Germany and period 1951-2009, interpolated to 1 × 1 km resolution and provided as supplementary data to this article (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/10/024012/mmedia), we demonstrate a strong relationship between the mean temperature in spring and the day of heading (DOH) of winter wheat. We show that the cooling effect due to the 14 days earlier DOH almost fully compensates for the adverse effect of global warming on frequency and magnitude of crop heat stress. Earlier heading caused by the warmer spring period can prevent exposure to extreme heat events around anthesis, which is the most sensitive growth stage to heat stress. Consequently, the intensity of heat stress around anthesis in winter crops cultivated in Germany may not increase under climate change even if the number and duration of extreme heat waves increase. However, this does not mean that global warning would not harm crop production because of other impacts, e.g. shortening of the grain filling period. Based on the trends for the last 34 years in Germany, heat stress (stress thermal time) around anthesis would be 59% higher in year 2009 if the effect of high temperatures on accelerating wheat phenology were ignored. We conclude that climate impact assessments need to consider both the effect of high temperature on grain set at anthesis but also on crop phenology.

Can a nudge keep you warm? Using nudges to reduce excess winter deaths: insight from the Keeping Warm in Later Life Project (KWILLT).

Science.gov (United States)

Allmark, Peter; Tod, Angela M

2014-03-01

Nudges are interventions that aim to change people's behaviour through changing the environment in which they choose rather than appealing to their reasoning. Nudges have been proposed as of possible use in relation to health-related behaviour. However, nudges have been criticized as ethically dubious because they bypass peoples reasoning and (anyway) are of little help in relation to affecting ill-health that results from social determinants, such as poverty. Reducing the rate of excess winter deaths (EWDs) is a public health priority; however, EWD seems clearly to be socially determined such that nudges arguably have little role. This article defends two claims: (i) nudges could have a place in tackling even the heavily socially determined problem of EWD. We draw on evidence from an empirical study, the Keeping Warm in Later Life Project (KWILLT), to argue that in some cases the risk of cold is within the person's control to some extent such that environmental modifications to influence behaviour such as nudges are possible. (ii) Some uses of behavioural insights in the form of nudges are acceptable, including some in the area of EWD. We suggest a question-based framework by which to judge the ethical acceptability of nudges.

Stay Warm in Winter (A Cup of Health with CDC)

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2015-02-26

When frigid winter temperatures hit the U.S., the risk for unhealthy exposure to cold increases substantially. In this podcast, Dr. Jonathan Meiman discusses the dangers of exposure to extremely cold temperatures.  Created: 2/26/2015 by MMWR.   Date Released: 2/26/2015.

The effects of the Indo-Pacific warm pool on the stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Xin; Li, Jianping; Xie, Fei; Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Yanjie; Zhao, Sen; Zhang, Jiankai; Li, Yang

2017-03-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) plays a key role in influencing East Asian climate, and even affects global-scale climate change. This study defines IPWP Niño and IPWP Niña events to represent the warm and cold phases of IPWP SST anomalies, respectively, and investigates the effects of these events on stratospheric circulation and temperature. Results from simulations forced by observed SST anomalies during IPWP Niño and Niña events show that the tropical lower stratosphere tends to cool during IPWP Niño events and warm during IPWP Niña events. The responses of the northern and southern polar vortices to IPWP Niño events are fairly symmetric, as both vortices are significantly warmed and weakened. However, the responses of the two polar vortices to IPWP Niña events are of opposite sign: the northern polar vortex is warmed and weakened, but the southern polar vortex is cooled and strengthened. These features are further confirmed by composite analysis using reanalysis data. A possible dynamical mechanism connecting IPWP SST to the stratosphere is suggested, in which IPWP Niño and Niña events excite teleconnections, one similar to the Pacific-North America pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and a Rossby wave train in the Southern Hemisphere, which project onto the climatological wave in the mid-high latitudes, intensifying the upward propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere and, in turn, affecting the polar vortex.

Volcanos and el Nino - signal separation in Winter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirchner, I.; Graf, H.F.

1993-12-01

The aim of this study is the detection of climate signals following violent volcanic eruptions in relation to those forced by El Nino during winter in higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The applied statistical methods are a combination of the local t-test statistics and signal detection methods based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of shortwave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in subtropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland is well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is only weak in high latitudes during winter. The local anomalies in the El Nino forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combination of high stratospheric aerosol loading and El Nino leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Nino or stratospheric aerosol alone. Over Europe, generally the volcanic signal dominates, and in the Pacific region the El Nino forcing determines the observed and the simulated anomalies in winter. (orig./KW)

Volcanos and el Nino - signal separation in Winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, I.; Graf, H.F.

1993-01-01

The aim of this study is the detection of climate signals following violent volcanic eruptions in relation to those forced by El Nino during winter in higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The applied statistical methods are a combination of the local t-test statistics and signal detection methods based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of shortwave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in subtropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland is well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is only weak in high latitudes during winter. The local anomalies in the El Nino forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combination of high stratospheric aerosol loading and El Nino leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Nino or stratospheric aerosol alone. Over Europe, generally the volcanic signal dominates, and in the Pacific region the El Nino forcing determines the observed and the simulated anomalies in winter. (orig./KW)

Chronic environmental stress enhances tolerance to seasonal gradual warming in marine mussels.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ionan Marigómez

Full Text Available In global climate change scenarios, seawater warming acts in concert with multiple stress sources, which may enhance the susceptibility of marine biota to thermal stress. Here, the responsiveness to seasonal gradual warming was investigated in temperate mussels from a chronically stressed population in comparison with a healthy one. Stressed and healthy mussels were subjected to gradual temperature elevation for 8 days (1°C per day; fall: 16-24°C, winter: 12-20°C, summer: 20-28°C and kept at elevated temperature for 3 weeks. Healthy mussels experienced thermal stress and entered the time-limited survival period in the fall, became acclimated in winter and exhibited sublethal damage in summer. In stressed mussels, thermal stress and subsequent health deterioration were elicited in the fall but no transition into the critical period of time-limited survival was observed. Stressed mussels did not become acclimated to 20°C in winter, when they experienced low-to-moderate thermal stress, and did not experience sublethal damage at 28°C in summer, showing instead signs of metabolic rate depression. Overall, although the thermal threshold was lowered in chronically stressed mussels, they exhibited enhanced tolerance to seasonal gradual warming, especially in summer. These results challenge current assumptions on the susceptibility of marine biota to the interactive effects of seawater warming and pollution.

Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus and climate change: Importance of winter forage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thrine Moen Heggberget

2002-06-01

Full Text Available As a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, climate change is predicted to be particularly pronounced, although regionally variable, in the vast arctic, sub-arctic and alpine tundra areas of the northern hemisphere. Here, we review winter foraging conditions for reindeer and caribou (Rangifer tarandus living in these areas, and consider diet, forage quality and distribution, accessibility due to snow variation, and effects of snow condition on reindeer and caribou populations. Finally, we hypothesise how global warming may affect wild mountain reindeer herds in South Norway. Energy-rich lichens often dominate reindeer and caribou diets. The animals also prefer lichens, and their productivity has been shown to be higher on lichen-rich than on lichen-poor ranges. Nevertheless, this energy source appears to be neither sufficient as winter diet for reindeer or caribou (at least for pregnant females nor necessary. Some reindeer and caribou populations seem to be better adapted to a non-lichen winter diet, e.g. by a larger alimentary tract. Shrubs appear to be the most common alternative winter forage, while some grasses appear to represent a good, nutritionally-balanced winter diet. Reindeer/caribou make good use of a wide variety of plants in winter, including dead and dry parts that are digested more than expected based on their fibre content. The diversity of winter forage is probably important for the mineral content of the diet. A lichen-dominated winter diet may be deficient in essential dietary elements, e.g. minerals. Sodium in particular may be marginal in inland winter ranges. Our review indicates that most Rangifer populations with lichen-dominated winter diets are either periodically or continuously heavily harvested by humans or predators. However, when population size is mainly limited by food, accessible lichen resources are often depleted. Plant studies simulating climatic change indicate that a warmer, wetter

Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

2013-04-01

We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

Science.gov (United States)

Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

1992-10-01

One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

Excess winter mortality and cold temperatures in a subtropical city, Guangzhou, China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chun-Quan Ou

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented. METHODS: This study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution. RESULTS: The mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52% from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24% from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%. We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (rs=-0.738, P=0.037, but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95% CI:0.34%-2.40% and 0.88% (95% CI:0.11%-1.64% in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively. CONCLUSION: Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate

Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

Science.gov (United States)

Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowland, F. S.

2010-01-01

The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

Cross-stratified Wood: Enigmatic Woody Debris Deposits in Warm-Polar Fluvial Sediments (Pliocene Beaufort Formation, Nunavut)

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, N. S.; Gosse, J. C.; Rybczynski, N.

2012-04-01

Woody debris has been an important sediment component and a significant geomorphic agent in pristine fluvial systems since the Devonian. In recent years a large volume of research has focussed on various aspects of the importance of woody debris within the fluvial realm; from the evolutionary significance of fossil wood accumulations in the rock record to studies of the biogeomorphological and ecological importance of woody debris in modern rivers. In this presentation we describe cross-stratified woody debris deposits comprising organic detritus from a boreal-type treeline forest that included species of pine, birch, poplar, alder, spruce, eastern cedar, and larch, in both shrub and tree form. The cross-stratified wood is an enigmatic subset of fine woody debris which, to our knowledge, has never before been described from either the global stratigraphic record or modern fluvial environments. The deposits we describe are located within the Pliocene Beaufort Formation on Meighen Island, Nunavut, Canada, at a latitude of 80°N, and are compared with other cross-stratified woody debris deposits that have been noted elsewhere in the Pliocene of the Canadian Arctic. We make the robust observation that these deposits appear to be geographically and stratigraphically restricted to polar latitudes from a period of warm climatic conditions during the Pliocene (15-20 °C warmer mean annual temperature than the present day). In this regard it is possible to speculate that the transport of large amounts of woody debris as bedload is potentially a unique feature of forested high latitude rivers. Such bedload deposition requires a large amount of woody debris with a greater density than the fluid transporting it. The softwood composition of the debris suggests that this was most likely attained by saturation and subsequent entrainment of extensive accumulations of deadwood, promoted by unusually high rates of tree mortality and low rates of bacterial decomposition arising from

Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B. [Univ. of Kentucky, Lexington, KY (United States). Dept. of Forestry

1998-12-31

The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomass samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife habitat.

Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B.

1998-01-01

The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomass samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife habitat

Preliminary Evidence for the Amplification of Global Warming in Shallow, Intertidal Estuarine Waters

Science.gov (United States)

Over the past 50 years, mean annual water temperature in northeastern U.S. estuaries has increased by approximately 1.2°C, with most of the warming recorded in the winter and early spring. We hypothesize that this warming may be amplified in the shallow (<2m), nearshore portions ...

Biogeochemical Impact of Snow Cover and Cyclonic Intrusions on the Winter Weddell Sea Ice Pack

Science.gov (United States)

Tison, J.-L.; Schwegmann, S.; Dieckmann, G.; Rintala, J.-M.; Meyer, H.; Moreau, S.; Vancoppenolle, M.; Nomura, D.; Engberg, S.; Blomster, L. J.; Hendrickx, S.; Uhlig, C.; Luhtanen, A.-M.; de Jong, J.; Janssens, J.; Carnat, G.; Zhou, J.; Delille, B.

2017-12-01

Sea ice is a dynamic biogeochemical reactor and a double interface actively interacting with both the atmosphere and the ocean. However, proper understanding of its annual impact on exchanges, and therefore potentially on the climate, notably suffer from the paucity of autumnal and winter data sets. Here we present the results of physical and biogeochemical investigations on winter Antarctic pack ice in the Weddell Sea (R. V. Polarstern AWECS cruise, June-August 2013) which are compared with those from two similar studies conducted in the area in 1986 and 1992. The winter 2013 was characterized by a warm sea ice cover due to the combined effects of deep snow and frequent warm cyclones events penetrating southward from the open Southern Ocean. These conditions were favorable to high ice permeability and cyclic events of brine movements within the sea ice cover (brine tubes), favoring relatively high chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations. We discuss the timing of this algal activity showing that arguments can be presented in favor of continued activity during the winter due to the specific physical conditions. Large-scale sea ice model simulations also suggest a context of increasingly deep snow, warm ice, and large brine fractions across the three observational years, despite the fact that the model is forced with a snowfall climatology. This lends support to the claim that more severe Antarctic sea ice conditions, characterized by a longer ice season, thicker, and more concentrated ice are sufficient to increase the snow depth and, somehow counterintuitively, to warm the ice.

Development of the warm snake and acceleration of polarized protons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takano, Junpei

2007-01-01

Acceleration of polarized protons is one of interesting issues of the high energy and accelerator physics. As known as the proton spin crisis, the total of the quark spin is not equal to the proton spin. To explore sources of the proton spin, it has been required to accelerate polarized protons to higher energy as hundreds GeV with higher polarization. However it is difficult to accelerate the polarized protons to higher energy with preserving higher polarization by using circular accelerators since the polarized beam crosses several types of depolarizing resonances. To overcome the depolarizing resonances, unique components are employed to the accelerator chain at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). On this description, developing a normal conducting helical dipole partial Siberian snake is explained in detail. As the results of upgrading the accelerators, the polarization has been increased recently. (author)

Generating highly polarized nuclear spins in solution using dynamic nuclear polarization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wolber, J.; Ellner, F.; Fridlund, B.

2004-01-01

A method to generate strongly polarized nuclear spins in solution has been developed, using Dynamic Nuclear Polarization (DNP) at a temperature of 1.2K, and at a field of 3.354T, corresponding to an electron spin resonance frequency of 94GHz. Trityl radicals are used to directly polarize 13C...... and other low-γ nuclei. Subsequent to the DNP process, the solid sample is dissolved rapidly with a warm solvent to create a solution of molecules with highly polarized nuclear spins. Two main applications are proposed: high-resolution liquid state NMR with enhanced sensitivity, and the use...

Rocket measurements of positive ions during polar mesosphere winter echo conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Brattli

2006-01-01

Full Text Available On 18 January 2005, two small, instrumented rockets were launched from Andøya Rocket Range (69.3° N, 16° E during conditions with Polar Mesosphere Winter Echoes (PMWE. Each of the rockets was equipped with a Positive Ion Probe (PIP and a Faraday rotation/differential absorption experiment, and was launched as part of a salvo of meteorological rockets measuring temperature and wind using falling spheres and chaff. Layers of PMWE were detected between 55 and 77 km by the 53.5 MHz ALWIN radar. The rockets were launched during a solar proton event, and measured extremely high ion densities, of order 1010 m−3, in the region where PMWE were observed. The density measurements were analyzed with the wavelet transform technique. At large length scales, ~103 m, the power spectral density can be fitted with a k−3 wave number dependence, consistent with saturated gravity waves. Outside the PMWE layers the k−3 spectrum extends down to approximately 102 m where the fluctuations are quickly damped and disappear into the instrumental noise. Inside the PMWE layers the spectrum at smaller length scales is well fitted with a k−5/3 dependence over two decades of scales. The PMWE are therefore clearly indicative of turbulence, and the data are consistent with the turbulent dissipation of breaking gravity waves. We estimate a lower limit for the turbulent energy dissipation rate of about 10−2 W/kg in the upper (72 km layer.

The Middle Atmosphere Program: Winter In Northern Europe (MAP/WINE)

Science.gov (United States)

Vonzahn, U.

1982-04-01

The goals of map/wind (winter in Northern Europe) are to better understand: (1) the interaction of planetary waves of tropospheric origin; (2) the temporal and spatial development of sudden stratospheric warmings; (3) the temporal and spatial development of mesospheric cooling events in conjunction with stratospheric warmings; (4) the vertical and horizontal transport of minor constituents; (5) the effects on the chemistry of neutral and charged species of the large temperature changes occurring during stratospheric warmings and mesospheric cooling; (6) sources of turbulent energy; (7) the temporal and spatial development of turbulent layers; and (8) the contributions of dynamical processes to the heating and cooling of the mesospheric and turbopause region.

A vortex dynamics perspective on stratospheric sudden warmings

OpenAIRE

Matthewman, N. J.

2009-01-01

A vortex dynamics approach is used to study the underlying mechanisms leading to polar vortex breakdown during stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). Observational data are used in chapter 2 to construct climatologies of the Arctic polar vortex structure during vortex-splitting and vortex-displacement SSWs occurring between 1958 and 2002. During vortex-splitting SSWs, polar vortex breakdown is shown to be typically independent of height (barotropic), whereas breakdown during vor...

Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

2015-01-01

Higher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling studies have focused on the magnitude and frequency of extreme events during the growth period but did not consider the effect of higher temperature on crop phenology. Based on an extensive set of climate and phenology observations for Germany and period 1951–2009, interpolated to 1 × 1 km resolution and provided as supplementary data to this article (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/10/024012/mmedia), we demonstrate a strong relationship between the mean temperature in spring and the day of heading (DOH) of winter wheat. We show that the cooling effect due to the 14 days earlier DOH almost fully compensates for the adverse effect of global warming on frequency and magnitude of crop heat stress. Earlier heading caused by the warmer spring period can prevent exposure to extreme heat events around anthesis, which is the most sensitive growth stage to heat stress. Consequently, the intensity of heat stress around anthesis in winter crops cultivated in Germany may not increase under climate change even if the number and duration of extreme heat waves increase. However, this does not mean that global warning would not harm crop production because of other impacts, e.g. shortening of the grain filling period. Based on the trends for the last 34 years in Germany, heat stress (stress thermal time) around anthesis would be 59% higher in year 2009 if the effect of high temperatures on accelerating wheat phenology were ignored. We conclude that climate impact assessments need to consider both the effect of high temperature on grain set at anthesis but also on crop phenology. (letter)

Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

Science.gov (United States)

Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret

2015-01-01

The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

Analysis of the Warmest Arctic Winter, 2015-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Cullather, Richard I.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Boisvert, Linette N.; Brucker, Ludovic; Lee, Jae N.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

2016-01-01

December through February 2015-2016 defines the warmest winter season over the Arctic in the observational record. Positive 2m temperature anomalies were focused over regions of reduced sea ice cover in the Kara and Barents Seas and southwestern Alaska. A third region is found over the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. The period is marked by a strong synoptic pattern which produced melting temperatures in close proximity to the North Pole in late December and anomalous high pressure near the Taymyr Peninsula. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Atlantic contributed to warming over Eurasian high-latitude land surfaces, and El Niño-related teleconnections explain warming over southwestern Alaska and British Columbia, while warm anomalies over the central Arctic are associated with physical processes including the presence of enhanced atmospheric water vapor and an increased downwelling longwave radiative flux. Preconditioning of sea ice conditions by warm temperatures affected the ensuing spring extent.

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

Polarized Electrons for Linear Colliders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clendenin, J.

2004-01-01

Future electron-positron linear colliders require a highly polarized electron beam with a pulse structure that depends primarily on whether the acceleration utilizes warm or superconducting rf structures. The International Linear Collider (ILC) will use cold structures for the main linac. It is shown that a dc-biased polarized photoelectron source such as successfully used for the SLC can meet the charge requirements for the ILC micropulse with a polarization approaching 90%

Videographic Education: Owning the Polar Crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Vachon, R. W.; Buhr, S. M.

2007-12-01

Television and internet-served video is an increasingly important media tool for reaching into society. This talk will present clips from a film designed to educate the public about warming in the polar regions, the socioeconomic and environmental implications of this warming; and the actions we can take to slow down human contributions to climate change. This talk will present a short film Owning the Polar Crisis, which is drawn from footage for Polar Visions, a four segment film available for educational audiences and the public.. The films are unique in that they draw from the perspectives of well-known climate scientists, citizens from all over the planet and natives of the Arctic. The compelling images were taken from numerous locations around the Arctic, including Alaska and Greenland. Owning the Polar Crisis was filmed, directed and produced by Dr. Ryan Vachon, a climate scientist and videographer with an intimate knowledge of the subject matter.

Arctic warming, moisture increase and circulation changes observed in the Ny-Ålesund homogenized radiosonde record

Science.gov (United States)

Maturilli, Marion; Kayser, Markus

2017-10-01

Radiosonde measurements obtained at the Arctic site Ny-Ålesund (78.9°N, 11.9°E), Svalbard, from 1993 to 2014 have been homogenized accounting for instrumentation discontinuities by correcting known errors in the manufacturer provided profiles. The resulting homogenized radiosonde record is provided as supplementary material at http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.845373. From the homogenized data record, the first Ny-Ålesund upper-air climatology of wind, temperature and humidity is presented, forming the background for the analysis of changes during the 22-year period. Particularly during the winter season, a strong increase in atmospheric temperature and humidity is observed, with a significant warming of the free troposphere in January and February up to 3 K per decade. This winter warming is even more pronounced in the boundary layer below 1 km, presumably amplified by mesoscale processes including e.g. orographic effects or the boundary layer capping inversion. Though the largest contribution to the increasing atmospheric water vapour column in winter originates from the lowermost 2 km, no increase in the contribution by specific humidity inversions is detected. Instead, we find an increase in the humidity content of the large-scale background humidity profiles. At the same time, the tropospheric flow in winter is found to occur less frequent from northerly directions and to the same amount more frequent from the South. We conclude that changes in the atmospheric circulation lead to an enhanced advection of warm and moist air from lower latitudes to the Svalbard region in the winter season, causing the warming and moistening of the atmospheric column above Ny-Ålesund, and link the observations to changes in the Arctic Oscillation.

The History of Winter: teachers as scientists

Science.gov (United States)

Koenig, L.; Courville, Z.; Wasilewski, P. J.; Gow, T.; Bender, K. J.

2013-12-01

The History of Winter (HOW) is a NASA Goddard Space Flight Center-funded teacher enrichment program that was started by Dr. Peter Wasilewski (NASA), Dr. Robert Gabrys (NASA) and Dr. Tony Gow (Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, or CRREL) in 2001 and continues with support and involvement of scientists from both the NASA Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory and CREEL. The program brings educators mostly from middle and high schools but also from state parks, community colleges and other institutions from across the US to the Northwood School (a small, private boarding school) in Lake Placid, NY for one week to learn about several facets of winter, polar, and snow research, including the science and history of polar ice core research, lake ice formation and structure, snow pack science, winter ecology, and remote sensing including current and future NASA cryospheric missions. The program receives support from the Northwood School staff to facilitate the program. The goal of the program is to create 'teachers as scientists' which is achieved through several hands-on field experiences in which the teachers have the opportunity to work with polar researchers from NASA, CRREL and partner Universities to dig and sample snow pits, make ice thin sections from lake ice, make snow shelters, and observe under-ice lake ecology. The hands-on work allows the teachers to use the same tools and techniques used in polar research while simultaneously introducing science concepts and activities to support their classroom work. The ultimate goal of the program is to provide the classroom teachers with the opportunity to learn about current and timely cryospheric research as well as to engage in real fieldwork experiences. The enthusiasm generated during the week-long program is translated into classroom activities with guidance from scientists, teachers and educational professionals. The opportunity to engage with polar researchers, both young investigators and renowned

Dynamic response of wind turbine towers in warm permafrost

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Benjamin Still; ZhaoHui Joey Yang; Simon Evans; FuJun Niu

2014-01-01

Wind is a great source of renewable energy in western Alaska. Consistent winds blow across the barren tundra underlain by warm permafrost in the winter season, when the energy demand is the highest. Foundation engineering in warm permafrost has always been a challenge in wind energy development. Degrading warm permafrost poses engineering issues to design, construction, and operation of wind turbines. This paper describes the foundation design of a wind turbine built in western Alaska. It presents a sys-tem for response monitoring and load assessment, and data collected from September 2013 to March 2014. The dynamic proper-ties are assessed based on the monitoring data, and seasonal changes in the dynamic properties of the turbine tower-foundation system and likely resonance between the spinning blades and the tower structure are discussed. These analyses of a wind turbine in warm permafrost are valuable for designing or retrofitting of foundations in warm permafrost.

Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lockwood, M; Harrison, R G; Woollings, T; Solanki, S K

2010-01-01

Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century. The Maunder minimum (about 1650-1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe. Motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK, we investigate the possible connection with solar activity. We identify regionally anomalous cold winters by detrending the Central England temperature (CET) record using reconstructions of the northern hemisphere mean temperature. We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic. We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect. Average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest an 8% chance of a return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303-29): the results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.

Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany — winter season

Science.gov (United States)

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-05-01

Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021-2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation.

Snow Based Winter Tourism and Kinds of Adaptations to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Breiling, M.

2009-04-01

Austria is the most intensive winter tourism country in the world with some 4% contribution in the national GNP. Snow based winter tourism became the lead economy of mountain areas, covering two thirds of the country and is by far economically more important than agriculture and forestry. While natural snow was the precondition for the establishment of winter tourism, artificial snow is nowadays the precondition to maintain winter tourism in the current economic intensity. Skiing originally low tech, is developing increasingly into high tech. While skiing was comparatively cheap in previous days due to natural snow, skiing is getting more expensive and exclusive for a higher income class due to the relative high production costs. Measures to adapt to a warmer climate can be divided into three principle types: physical adaptation, technical adaptation - where artificial snow production plays a major role - and social adaptation. It will be discussed under which conditions each adaptation type seems feasible in dependence of the level of warming. In particular physical and technical adaptations are related to major investments. Practically every ski resort has to decide about what is an appropriate, economically cost efficient level of adaptation. Adapting too much reduces profits. Adapting too little does not bring enough income. The optimal level is often not clear. In many cases public subsidies help to collect funds for adaptation and to keep skiing profitable. The possibility to adapt on local, regional or on national scales will depend on the degree of warming, the future price of artificial snow production and the public means foreseen to support the winter tourism industry.

The Physics of Polarization

Science.gov (United States)

Landi Degl'Innocenti, Egidio

2015-10-01

The introductory lecture that has been delivered at this Symposium is a condensed version of an extended course held by the author at the XII Canary Island Winter School from November 13 to November 21, 2000. The full series of lectures can be found in Landi Degl'Innocenti (2002). The original reference is organized in 20 Sections that are here itemized: 1. Introduction, 2. Description of polarized radiation, 3. Polarization and optical devices: Jones calculus and Muller matrices, 4. The Fresnel equations, 5. Dichroism and anomalous dispersion, 6. Polarization in everyday life, 7. Polarization due to radiating charges, 8. The linear antenna, 9. Thomson scattering, 10. Rayleigh scattering, 11. A digression on Mie scattering, 12. Bremsstrahlung radiation, 13. Cyclotron radiation, 14. Synchrotron radiation, 15. Polarization in spectral lines, 16. Density matrix and atomic polarization, 17. Radiative transfer and statistical equilibrium equations, 18. The amplification condition in polarized radiative transfer, and 19. Coupling radiative transfer and statistical equilibrium equations.

The 8th-10 th January 2009 snowfalls: a case of Mediterranean warm advection event

Science.gov (United States)

Aguado, F.; Ayensa, E.; Barriga, M.; Del Hoyo, J.; Fernández, A.; Garrido, N.; Martín, A.; Martín, F.; Roa, I. Martínez, A.; Pascual, R.

2009-09-01

From 8 th to 10 th of January 2009, significant snowfalls were reported in many areas of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. This relevant event was very important from the meteorological and social impact point of views. The snow affected many zones, especially the regions of Madrid, Castilla & León and Castilla-La Mancha (Spanish central plateau) with the persistence and thickness of solid precipitation. Up to twenty-five centimetres of snow were reported in some places. On 9th of January the snowfalls caused great social and media impact due to the fact that they took place in the early hours in the Madrid metropolitan areas, affecting both air traffic and land transport. The "Madrid-Barajas" airport was closed and the city was collapsed during several hours. A study of this situation appears in the poster. The snowstorm was characterized by the previous irruption of an European continental polar air mass, that subsequently interacted with a wet and warm air mass of Mediterranean origin, all preceded by low level easterly flows. This type of snowfall is called "warm advection". These winter situations are very efficient from precipitation point of view, generating significant snowfalls and affecting a lot of areas.

Condiciones medias de invierno y ondas cuasi-estacionarias de Rossby asociadas a la frecuencia invernal de noches frias y cálidas en Argentina subtropical Mean winter conditions and quasi-stationary Rossby waves associated with the winter frequency of warm and cold nights in subtropical Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo A Agosta

2012-12-01

nights (TN10 and warm nights (TN90 during winter (JJA over subtropical Argentina, to the north of 40°S and surrounding areas (ASA from meteorological stations and NCEP/DOE AMIP-II and ECMWF ERA-interim reanalysis data. It is found that the frequency of warm nights (Tmin over percentile 90, TN90 is modulated at interannual scales by quasi-stationary wave propagation induced by convection anomalies in the Indic and Pacific. The high frequency of warm nights is associated with anomalous warming over the central equatorial Pacific (positive phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO. The low frequency of warm nights is linked to anomalous convection over the monsoon Indian area and the western tropical southern Indic. Hence quasi-stationary Rossby wave activity propagation is favored over the Indic, Pacific and southern South America. Such a teleconnection favors in turn the high fequency of cold nights (Tmin below percentile 10, TN10. Instead, the low frequency of cold nights is linked to the low-frequency variability of the Southern Hemisphere high-latitude mode (SAM. It is found that winters with high (low frequency of cold (warm nights are characterized by a strengthening (weakening of the subtropical jet over southern South America and adjacent areas. The current remote forcings are related with atmospheric/oceanic processes that are interconnected at seasonal-interseasonal scales, which could allow us to develop statistical-dynamical forecasts for the higher or lower occurrence of warm or cold nights in winter.

Seasonal forecasts of northern hemisphere winter 2009/10

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fereday, D R; Maidens, A; Arribas, A; Scaife, A A; Knight, J R

2012-01-01

Northern hemisphere winter 2009/10 was exceptional for atmospheric circulation: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was the lowest on record for over a century. This contributed to cold conditions over large areas of Eurasia and North America. Here we use two versions of the Met Office GloSea4 seasonal forecast system to investigate the predictability of this exceptional winter. The first is the then operational version of GloSea4, which uses a low top model and successfully predicted a negative NAO in forecasts produced in September, October and November 2009. The second uses a new high top model, which better simulates sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). This is particularly relevant for 2009/10 due to its unusual combination of a strong El Niño and an easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase, favouring SSW development. SSWs are shown to play an influential role in surface conditions, producing a stronger sea level pressure signal and improving predictions of the 2009/10 winter. (letter)

Large-scale dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere during the MAP/WINE campaign winter 1983 to 1984 in comparison with other winters

Science.gov (United States)

Petzoldt, K.

1989-04-01

For the MAP/WINE winter temperature and wind measurements of rockets were combined with SSU radiances (Stratospheric Sounder Unit onboard the NOAA satellites) and stratopause heights from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) to get a retrieved data set including all available information. By means of this data set a hemispheric geopotential height, temperature and geostrophic wind fields eddy transports for wave mean flow interaction and potential vorticity for the interpretation of nonlinear wave breaking could be computed. Wave reflection at critical lines was investigated with respect of stratospheric warmings. The meridional gradient of the potential vorticity and focusing of wave activity is compared with derived data from satellite observations during other winters.

[Effects of Warming and Straw Application on Soil Respiration and Enzyme Activity in a Winter Wheat Cropland].

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shu-tao; Sang, Lin; Zhang, Xu; Hu, Zheng-hua

2016-02-15

In order to investigate the effects of warming and straw application on soil respiration and enzyme activity, a field experiment was performed from November 2014 to May 2015. Four treatments, which were control (CK), warming, straw application, and warming and straw application, were arranged in field. Seasonal variability in soil respiration, soil temperature and soil moisture for different treatments were measured. Urease, invertase, and catalase activities for different treatments were measured at the elongation, booting, and anthesis stages. The results showed that soil respiration in different treatments had similar seasonal variation patterns. Seasonal mean soil respiration rates for the CK, warming, straw application, and warming and straw application treatments were 1.46, 1.96, 1.92, and 2.45 micromol x (m2 x s)(-1), respectively. ANOVA indicated that both warming and straw applications significantly (P soil respiration compared to the control treatment. The relationship between soil respiration and soil temperature in different treatments fitted with the exponential regression function. The exponential regression functions explained 34.3%, 28.1%, 24.6%, and 32.0% variations of soil respiration for CK, warming, straw application, and warming and straw application treatments, respectively. Warming and straw applications significantly (P soil respiration and urease activity fitted with a linear regression function, with the P value of 0.061. The relationship between soil respiration and invertase (P = 0.013), and between soil respiration and catalase activity (P = 0.002) fitted well with linear regression functions.

Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Northern Polar Summer Periods of 2002-2010 using TIMED/SABER Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Goldberg, Richard A.; Feofilov, A. G.; Pesnell, W. D.; Kutepov, A. A.

2012-01-01

It has been found that for more than one polar summer season between 2002-2010, the northern polar mesospheric region near and above about 80 km was warmer than normal. The strongest warming effect of this type was observed to occur during northern summer 2002. Theoretical studies have implied that these "anomalies" were preceded by unusual dynamical processes in the southern hemisphere. We have analyzed temperature distributions measured by the SABER limb scanning infrared radiometer aboard the NASA TIMED satellite between 2002-2010 at altitudes from 15 to 110 km and for latitudes between 83 S to 83 N. We describe the approach to trace the inter-hemispheric temperature correlations demonstrating the global features that were unique for the "anomalous" northern polar summers. From our analysis of SABER data from 2002-2010, the anomalous heating for the northern mesopause region during northern summer was accompanied by stratospheric heating in the equatorial region. In the winter hemisphere it is accompanied by heating in the lower stratosphere and mesopause region, and cooling in the stratopause region. Also, all the elements of the temperature anomaly structure appear to develop and fade away nearly simultaneously, thereby suggesting either a global influence or a rapid exchange.

Global warming leads to more uniform spring phenology across elevations.

Science.gov (United States)

Vitasse, Yann; Signarbieux, Constant; Fu, Yongshuo H

2018-01-30

One hundred years ago, Andrew D. Hopkins estimated the progressive delay in tree leaf-out with increasing latitude, longitude, and elevation, referred to as "Hopkins' bioclimatic law." What if global warming is altering this well-known law? Here, based on ∼20,000 observations of the leaf-out date of four common temperate tree species located in 128 sites at various elevations in the European Alps, we found that the elevation-induced phenological shift (EPS) has significantly declined from 34 d⋅1,000 m -1 conforming to Hopkins' bioclimatic law in 1960, to 22 d⋅1,000 m -1 in 2016, i.e., -35%. The stronger phenological advance at higher elevations, responsible for the reduction in EPS, is most likely to be connected to stronger warming during late spring as well as to warmer winter temperatures. Indeed, under similar spring temperatures, we found that the EPS was substantially reduced in years when the previous winter was warmer. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining EPS over the last six decades. Future climate warming may further reduce the EPS with consequences for the structure and function of mountain forest ecosystems, in particular through changes in plant-animal interactions, but the actual impact of such ongoing change is today largely unknown.

A study of energy performance and audit of commercial mall in hot-summer/warm-winter climate zone in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhisheng, Li; Jiawen, Liao; Xiaoxia, Wang [School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510006 (China); Lin, Yaolin [Building Energy Solutions and Technologies, Inc, San Jose Office, San Jose, CA 95134 (United States); Xuhong, Liu [School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510643 (China)

2013-08-15

The building energy performance improvement of large-scale public buildings is very important to release China's energy shortage pressure. The aim of the study is to find out the building energy saving potentials of large-scale public and commercial buildings by energy audit. In this paper, the energy consumption, energy performance, and audit were carried out for a typical commercial mall, the so-called largest mall in Asia, located in a hot-summer and warm-winter climate zone. The total annual energy consumption reaches 210.01 kWh/m{sup 2}, of which lighting energy consumption accounts for 30.03 kWh/m{sup 2} and the lift and elevator energy consumption accounts for 40.46 kWh/m{sup 2}. It is by far higher than that of the average building energy consumption in the same category. However, the annual heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) energy consumption is only 87.19 kWh/m{sup 2} even though they run 24/7. It proves that the energy performance of the HVAC system is good. Therefore, the building energy savings potential mainly relies on reducing the excessive usage of lighting, lifts, and elevators.

Running Club Warm Up Staves Off Winter's Chill

CERN Multimedia

2001-01-01

Not deterred by winter's chill, over 900 runners met at the CERN Prévesin site for Escalade training. Think the sudden cold snap is a reason to stay indoors? Think again! The CERN running club has just recently had the honour of holding the November 11th Escalade training session, and with over 900 runners present at the Prévessin site it was clear that the chilly temperatures were no barrier whatsoever. The story behind Escalade training starts back in 1977 when a group of running enthusiasts from the Stade Genève club decided to organize a running race in the Old Town in conjunction with the Escalade festivities. They were told that no normal people would think of organizing a running race in the month of December, but fortunately they ignored the advice! From the initial 50 or so runners, these Escalade races have grown into an institution and now attract upwards of 15,000 people of all ages from 5 to over 80 each year. And with over 30% of each year's runners participat...

Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Yutong; Zeng, Ning; Mariotti, Annarita; Wang, Hui; Kumar, Arun; Sánchez, René Lobato; Jha, Bhaskar

2018-06-01

In this study, the relationships between Central America/Mexico (CAM) winter precipitation and tropical Pacific/Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are examined based on 68-year (1948-2015) observations and 59-year (1957-2015) atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SSTs. The covariability of the winter precipitation and SSTs is quantified using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method with observational data. The first SVD mode relates out-of-phase precipitation anomalies in northern Mexico and Central America to the tropical Pacific El Niño/La Niña SST variation. The second mode links a decreasing trend in the precipitation over Central America to the warming of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, as well as in the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean. The first mode represents 67% of the covariance between the two fields, indicating a strong association between CAM winter precipitation and El Niño/La Niña, whereas the second mode represents 20% of the covariance. The two modes account for 32% of CAM winter precipitation variance, of which, 17% is related to the El Niño/La Niña SST and 15% is related to the SST warming trend. The atmospheric circulation patterns, including 500-hPa height and low-level winds obtained by linear regressions against the SVD SST time series, are dynamically consistent with the precipitation anomaly patterns. The model simulations driven by the observed SSTs suggest that these precipitation anomalies are likely a response to tropical SST forcing. It is also shown that there is significant potential predictability of CAM winter precipitation given tropical SST information.

Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jianyang Xia; Yiqi Luo; Jiquan Chen; Shilong Piao; Ciais, Philippe; Shiqiang Wan

2014-01-01

Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30 degrees and 90 degrees N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research. (authors)

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

OpenAIRE

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-01-01

Background Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises...

Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James E. Overland

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Recent Arctic changes are likely due to coupled Arctic amplification mechanisms with increased linkage between Arctic climate and sub-Arctic weather. Historically, sea ice grew rapidly in autumn, a strong negative radiative feedback. But increased sea-ice mobility, loss of multi-year sea ice, enhanced heat storage in newly sea ice-free ocean areas, and modified wind fields form connected positive feedback processes. One-way shifts in the Arctic system are sensitive to the combination of episodic intrinsic atmospheric and ocean variability and persistent increasing greenhouse gases. Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 showed a unique connectivity between the Arctic and more southern weather patterns when the typical polar vortex was replaced by high geopotential heights over the central Arctic and low heights over mid-latitudes that resulted in record snow and low temperatures, a warm Arctic—cold continents pattern. The negative value of the winter (DJF 2009/10 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index associated with enhanced meridional winds was the lowest observed value since the beginning of the record in 1865. Wind patterns in December 2007 and 2008 also show an impact of warmer Arctic temperatures. A tendency for higher geopotential heights over the Arctic and enhanced meridional winds are physically consistent with continued loss of sea ice over the next 40 years. A major challenge is to understand the interaction of Arctic changes with climate patterns such as the NAO, Pacific North American and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;

Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xiangdong; Lu Chuhan; Guan Zhaoyong

2012-01-01

Extreme cold winter weather events over Eurasia have occurred more frequently in recent years in spite of a warming global climate. To gain further insight into this regional mismatch with the global mean warming trend, we analyzed winter cyclone and anticyclone activities, and their interplay with the regional atmospheric circulation pattern characterized by the semi-permanent Siberian high. We found a persistent weakening of both cyclones and anticyclones between the 1990s and early 2000s, and a pronounced intensification of anticyclone activity afterwards. It is suggested that this intensified anticyclone activity drives the substantially strengthening and northwestward shifting/expanding Siberian high, and explains the decreased midlatitude Eurasian surface air temperature and the increased frequency of cold weather events. The weakened tropospheric midlatitude westerlies in the context of the intensified anticyclones would reduce the eastward propagation speed of Rossby waves, favoring persistence and further intensification of surface anticyclone systems. (letter)

Wheat production in Bangladesh: its future in the light of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Hossain, Akbar; Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.

2012-01-01

Background and aims The most fundamental activity of the people of Bangladesh is agriculture. Modelling projections for Bangladesh indicate that warmer temperatures linked to climate change will severely reduce the growth of various winter crops (wheat, boro rice, potato and winter vegetables) in the north and central parts. In summer, crops in south-eastern parts of the country are at risk from increased flooding as sea levels increase. Key facts Wheat is one of the most important winter crops and is temperature sensitive and the second most important grain crop after rice. In this review, we provide an up-to-date and detailed account of wheat research of Bangladesh and the impact that global warming may have on agriculture, especially wheat production. Although flooding is not of major importance or consequence to the wheat crop at present, some perspectives are provided on this stress since wheat is flood sensitive and the incidence of flooding is likely to increase. Projections This information and projections will allow wheat breeders to devise new breeding programmes to attempt to mitigate future global warming. We discuss what this implies for food security in the broader context of South Asia. PMID:23304431

Polar bears and sea ice habitat change

Science.gov (United States)

Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Butterworth, Andy

2017-01-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is an obligate apex predator of Arctic sea ice and as such can be affected by climate warming-induced changes in the extent and composition of pack ice and its impacts on their seal prey. Sea ice declines have negatively impacted some polar bear subpopulations through reduced energy input because of loss of hunting habitats, higher energy costs due to greater ice drift, ice fracturing and open water, and ultimately greater challenges to recruit young. Projections made from the output of global climate models suggest that polar bears in peripheral Arctic and sub-Arctic seas will be reduced in numbers or become extirpated by the end of the twenty-first century if the rate of climate warming continues on its present trajectory. The same projections also suggest that polar bears may persist in the high-latitude Arctic where heavy multiyear sea ice that has been typical in that region is being replaced by thinner annual ice. Underlying physical and biological oceanography provides clues as to why polar bear in some regions are negatively impacted, while bears in other regions have shown no apparent changes. However, continued declines in sea ice will eventually challenge the survival of polar bears and efforts to conserve them in all regions of the Arctic.

Superconducting polarizing magnet for a movable polarized target

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anishchenko, N.G.; Bartenev, V.D.; Blinov, N.A.

1998-01-01

The superconducting polarizing magnet was constructed for the JINR (Dubna) movable polarized target (MPT) with working volume 200 mm long and 30 mm in diameter. The magnet provides a polarizing magnetic field up to 6 T in the centre with the uniformity of 4.5 x 10 -4 in the working volume of the target. The magnet contains a main solenoidal winding 558 mm long and 206/144 mm in diameters, and compensating and correcting winding placed at its ends. The windings are made of a NbTi wire, impregnated with the epoxy resin and placed in the horizontal cryostat. The diameter of the 'warm' aperture of the magnet cryostat is 96 mm. The design and technology of the magnet winding are described. Results of the magnetic field map measurements, using a NMR-magnetometer are given. A similar magnet constructed at DAPNIA, CEA/Saclay (France), represented a model for the present development. The MPT array is installed in the beam line of polarized neutrons produced by break-up of polarized deuterons extracted from the synchrophasotron of the Laboratory of High Energies (LHE), JINR (Dubna)

Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rode, Karyn D; Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; St Martin, Michelle; Douglas, David C; Olson, Jay

2015-01-01

Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013) when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia), highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

A study of auroral activity in the nightside polar cap

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Q.

1989-01-01

Using various ground observations at South Pole, Antarctica (invariant magnetic latitude -74 degree) and its conjugate point, Frobisher Bay, Canada, the author has studied the following aspects of nightside polar cap auroral activity: the appearance and disappearance of polar cap auroras (diffuse and discrete) associated with substorms and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) variations; auroral optical emission line intensities; and the seasonal variation of auroral conjugacy. The observations show that the polar cap auroras usually fade away before the expansive phase of a substorm and bright auroral arcs reach high latitude (-74 degree) near the recovery phase. Just before the auroras fade away the discrete polar cap auroral arcs, which are usually on the poleward boundary of the diffuse aurora, intensify for 1 to 2 minutes. The observations also indicate the IMF may have stronger control over polar cap auroral activity than do substorms. A search for energy spectral variation of precipitating electrons using the intensities of 630.0 nm (0) and 427 nm (N 2 + ) auroral emission lines reveals no dramatic changes in the energy spectrum; instead, the data show possible atmospheric scattering and geometric effects on the photometric measurements while the bright auroral arc is moving into the polar cap. The conjugate observations show that the stormtime auroral electrojet current, which is associated with the bright auroral arc, in most cases reaches higher (lower) latitudes in the winter (summer) hemisphere. An asymmetric plasma sheet (with respect to the neutral sheet) is proposed, which expands deeper into the winter lobe, under a tilted geomagnetic dipole. Accordingly, the winter polar cap would have smaller area and the auroral electrojet would be at higher latitude

Characteristics of Winter Surface Air Temperature Anomalies in Moscow in 1970-2016 under Conditions of Reduced Sea Ice Area in the Barents Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Shukurov, K. A.; Semenov, V. A.

2018-01-01

On the basis of observational data on daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (BS), the characteristics of strong positive and negative winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been studied in comparison with BS SIC data obtained in 1949-2016. An analysis of surface backward trajectories of air-particle motions has revealed the most probable paths of both cold and warm air invasions into Moscow and located regions that mostly affect strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies that cause strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been revealed. Changes in the ways of both cold and warm air invasions have been found, as well as an increase in the frequency of blocking anticyclones in 2005-2016 when compared to 1970-1999. The results suggest that a winter SIC decrease in the BS in 2005-2016 affects strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow due to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking anticyclones to the south of and over the BS.

Winter-to-winter variations in indoor radon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mose, D.G.; Mushrush, G.W.; Kline, S.W.

1989-01-01

Indoor radon concentrations in northern Virginia and central Maryland show a strong dependence on weather. Winter tends to be associated with higher than average indoor radon, and summer with lower than average. However, compared to the winter of 1986-1987, the winter of 1987-1988 was warmer and drier. Consequently, winter-to-winter indoor radon decreased by about 25%. This winter-to-winter decrease is unexpectedly large, and simulates winter-to-summer variations that have been reported

Diurnal and seasonal occurrence of polar patches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Rodger

1996-05-01

Full Text Available Analysis of the diurnal and seasonal variation of polar patches, as identified in two years of HF-radar data from Halley, Antarctica during a period near sunspot maximum, shows that there is a broad maximum in occurrence centred about magnetic noon, not local noon. There are minima in occurrence near midsummer and midwinter, with maxima in occurrence between equinox and winter. There are no significant correlations between the occurrence of polar patches and the corresponding hourly averages of the solar wind and IMF parameters, except that patches usually occur when the interplanetary magnetic field has a southward component. The results can be understood in terms of UT and seasonal differences in the plasma concentration being convected from the dayside ionosphere into the polar cap. In summer and winter the electron concentrations in the polar cap are high and low, respectively, but relatively unstructured. About equinox, a tongue of enhanced ionisation is convected into the polar cap; this tongue is then structured by the effects of the interplanetary magnetic field, but these Halley data cannot be used to separate the various competing mechanisms for patch formation. The observed diurnal and seasonal variation in the occurrence of polar patches are largely consistent with predictions of Sojka et al. (1994 when their results are translated into the southern hemisphere. However, the ionospheric effects of flux transfer events are still considered essential in their formation, a feature not yet included in the Sojka et al. model.

A lunar polar expedition

Science.gov (United States)

Dowling, Richard; Staehle, Robert L.; Svitek, Tomas

1992-09-01

Advanced exploration and development in harsh environments require mastery of basic human survival skill. Expeditions into the lethal climates of Earth's polar regions offer useful lessons for tommorrow's lunar pioneers. In Arctic and Antarctic exploration, 'wintering over' was a crucial milestone. The ability to establish a supply base and survive months of polar cold and darkness made extensive travel and exploration possible. Because of the possibility of near-constant solar illumination, the lunar polar regions, unlike Earth's may offer the most hospitable site for habitation. The World Space Foundation is examining a scenario for establishing a five-person expeditionary team on the lunar north pole for one year. This paper is a status report on a point design addressing site selection, transportation, power, and life support requirements.

The seesaw effect of winter temperature change on the recruitment of cotton bollworms Helicoverpa armigera through mismatched phenology.

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, Gadi V P; Shi, Peijian; Hui, Cang; Cheng, Xiaofei; Ouyang, Fang; Ge, Feng

2015-12-01

Knowing how climate change affects the population dynamics of insect pests is critical for the future of integrated pest management. Rising winter temperatures from global warming can drive increases in outbreaks of some agricultural pests. In contrast, here we propose an alternative hypothesis that both extremely cold and warm winters can mismatch the timing between the eclosion of overwintering pests and the flowering of key host plants. As host plants normally need higher effective cumulative temperatures for flowering than insects need for eclosion, changes in flowering time will be less dramatic than changes in eclosion time, leading to a mismatch of phenology on either side of the optimal winter temperature. We term this the "seesaw effect." Using a long-term dataset of the Old World cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in northern China, we tested this seesaw hypothesis by running a generalized additive model for the effects of the third generation moth in the preceding year, the winter air temperature, the number of winter days below a critical temperature and cumulative precipitation during winter on the demography of the overwintering moth. Results confirmed the existence of the seesaw effect of winter temperature change on overwintering populations. Pest management should therefore consider the indirect effect of changing crop phenology (whether due to greenhouse cultivation or to climate change) on pest outbreaks. As arthropods from mid- and high latitudes are actually living in a cooler thermal environment than their physiological optimum in contrast to species from lower latitudes, the effects of rising winter temperatures on the population dynamics of arthropods in the different latitudinal zones should be considered separately. The seesaw effect makes it more difficult to predict the average long-term population dynamics of insect pests at high latitudes due to the potential sharp changes in annual growth rates

Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

2002-01-01

The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

Warming and nitrogen fertilization effects on winter wheat yields in northern China varied between four years

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Liting; Hu, Chunsheng; Olesen, Jørgen E

2013-01-01

per m2. This suggests that the wheat yield loss may be related to reduction of spike number, which was affected by decreased soil water content under warming. Warming tended to give larger yield reductions at higher nitrogen fertilizer rates, and this may be related to larger water consumption...... with both higher nitrogen and temperature leading to water shortages. These effects indicate that wheat yield loss from warming was primarily associated with more severe water shortage from greater evapotranspiration under warming. The large crop canopy in the fertilized plot may further have enhanced......). The volumetric water content decreased significantly before heading by 9.3, 3.9, 2.4 and 1.2 vol% in the soil depth of 0.10, 0.20, 0.40, 0.60 m in N2 and by 5.9, 1.4, 1.3 and 1.2 vol% in N1 from heating compared with no heating. The duration of the entire growth period was shortened by on average 7 days...

Dynamics of the polar mesopause and lower thermosphere region as observed in the night airglow emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myraboe, H.K.

1988-02-01

This work utilizes night airglow emissions to deduce temperatures, dynamics, energetics, transport and photochemistry of the polar 80-110 km atmospheric region. The morphological behaviour of the polar 80-110 km region as seen in the night airglow emissions is best described by quasi regular to regular variations in the temperature and in the intensities of the emissions with periods ranging from minutes to a few days. Temperature amplitudes are seen from a few degrees up to ±50 K. Intensity changes up to several hundred percent may occur. Gravity waves from below are generally found to be present in the region, being responsible for much of the short period variations. The long period variations are seen to be related to circulation changes in the lower atmosphere. Stratospheric warmings are generally associated by a cooling of the 80-110 km region by a ratio approximately twice as large in amplitude as the heating at the 10 mbar level. The semidiurnal tide is found to be dominant with a peak to peak amplitude of about 5 K, in contrast to model calculations. Effects from geomagnetic phenomena on the energetics and dynamics of the region are not seen and, if present, have to be small or rare as compared to the influence from below. There is a mesopause temperature maximum at winter solstice. Pronounced differences in the day to day and seasonal behaviour of the odd oxygen associated nightglows at the North and South Pole are found. This may indicate fundamental differences at the two poles in the winter mesopause region circulation and energetics

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

2018-03-01

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

Abnormal Winter Melting of the Arctic Sea Ice Cap Observed by the Spaceborne Passive Microwave Sensors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seongsuk Lee

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The spatial size and variation of Arctic sea ice play an important role in Earth’s climate system. These are affected by conditions in the polar atmosphere and Arctic sea temperatures. The Arctic sea ice concentration is calculated from brightness temperature data derived from the Defense Meteorological Satellite program (DMSP F13 Special Sensor Microwave/Imagers (SSMI and the DMSP F17 Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS sensors. Many previous studies point to significant reductions in sea ice and their causes. We investigated the variability of Arctic sea ice using the daily and monthly sea ice concentration data from passive microwave observations to identify the sea ice melting regions near the Arctic polar ice cap. We discovered the abnormal melting of the Arctic sea ice near the North Pole even during the summer and the winter. This phenomenon is hard to explain only surface air temperature or solar heating as suggested by recent studies. We propose a hypothesis explaining this phenomenon. The heat from the deep sea in Arctic Ocean ridges and/or the hydrothermal vents might be contributing to the melting of Arctic sea ice. This hypothesis could be verified by the observation of warm water column structure below the melting or thinning arctic sea ice through the project such as Coriolis dataset for reanalysis (CORA.

Climate. Meeting the challenge of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Mann, Michael; Greene, Charles; Salas y Melia, David; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Journe, Venance; Guegan, Jean-Francois; ); Bopp, Laurent; Magnan, Alexandre; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bally, Rene; Duponnois, Robin; Giodda, Alain; MOATTI, JEAN-PAUL; Recio, Carlos; Santana, Luis; Hulot, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Meritet, Sophie; Jacobson, Mark; Delucchi, Mark; Julliard, Romain; Balibar, Sebastien; Prevot, Anne-Caroline; Colleony, Agathe; Mangin, Loic

2015-01-01

The contributions of this publication first discuss and comment the cost of inaction in front of global warming. The authors deny the existence of a climate pause, explain the existence of harsh winters in Europe in the context of global warming, outline that models developed and used in the 1960 already predicted the present trend, discuss the complex relationships between climate change and health, outline the threats on the oceans (acidification, impact on marine species, level rise) and consequently on mankind. A second set of contributions addresses opportunities to be implemented now: to plant trees along the Sahara, the example of an ecologic island (El Hierro, Canaries Islands), the commitment of communities, associations and citizens, the necessary energy transition, innovation at the service of climate, the role of finances and investments. The third set of contributions addresses perspectives: to do without fossil energies, how to reduce the impact of global warming in cities (by planting trees and closing shutters), the emergence of participative science, arguments against climate sceptics, a difficult change of behaviours

Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.

Science.gov (United States)

Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban

2013-01-01

The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective.

Simulations of the general circulation of the Martian atmosphere. I - Polar processes

Science.gov (United States)

Pollack, James B.; Haberle, Robert M.; Schaeffer, James; Lee, Hilda

1990-01-01

Numerical simulations of the Martian atmosphere general circulation are carried out for 50 simulated days, using a three-dimensional model, based on the primitive equations of meteorology, which incorporated the radiative effects of atmospheric dust on solar and thermal radiation. A large number of numerical experiments were conducted for alternative choices of seasonal date and dust optical depth. It was found that, as the dust content of the winter polar region increased, the rate of atmospheric CO2 condensation increased sharply. It is shown that the strong seasonal variation in the atmospheric dust content observed might cause a number of hemispheric asymmetries. These asymmetries include the greater prevalence of polar hoods in the northern polar region during winter, the lower albedo of the northern polar cap during spring, and the total dissipation of the northern CO2 ice cap during the warmer seasons.

Artificial asymmetric warming reduces nectar yield in a Tibetan alpine species of Asteraceae.

Science.gov (United States)

Mu, Junpeng; Peng, Youhong; Xi, Xinqiang; Wu, Xinwei; Li, Guoyong; Niklas, Karl J; Sun, Shucun

2015-11-01

Asymmetric warming is one of the distinguishing features of global climate change, in which winter and night-time temperatures are predicted to increase more than summer and diurnal temperatures. Winter warming weakens vernalization and hence decreases the potential to flower for some perennial herbs, and night warming can reduce carbohydrate concentrations in storage organs. This study therefore hypothesized that asymmetric warming should act to reduce flower number and nectar production per flower in a perennial herb, Saussurea nigrescens, a key nectar plant for pollinators in Tibetan alpine meadows. A long-term (6 years) warming experiment was conducted using open-top chambers placed in a natural meadow and manipulated to achieve asymmetric increases in temperature, as follows: a mean annual increase of 0·7 and 2·7 °C during the growing and non-growing seasons, respectively, combined with an increase of 1·6 and 2·8 °C in the daytime and night-time, respectively, from June to August. Measurements were taken of nectar volume and concentration (sucrose content), and also of leaf non-structural carbohydrate content and plant morphology. Six years of experimental warming resulted in reductions in nectar volume per floret (64·7 % of control), floret number per capitulum (8·7 %) and capitulum number per plant (32·5 %), whereas nectar concentration remained unchanged. Depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates was significantly higher in the warmed than in the ambient condition. Overall plant density was also reduced by warming, which, when combined with reductions in flower development and nectar volumes, led to a reduction of ∼90 % in nectar production per unit area. The negative effect of asymmetric warming on nectar yields in S. nigrescens may be explained by a concomitant depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates. The results thus highlight a novel aspect of how climate change might affect plant-pollinator interactions and plant

Uncertainties in forecasting the response of polar bears to global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, David C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Butterworth, Andy

2017-01-01

Several sources of uncertainty affect how precisely the future status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) can be forecasted. Foremost are unknowns about the future levels of global greenhouse gas emissions, which could range from an unabated increase to an aggressively mitigated reduction. Uncertainties also arise because different climate models project different amounts and rates of future warming (and sea ice loss)—even for the same emission scenario. There are also uncertainties about how global warming could affect the Arctic Ocean’s food web, so even if climate models project the presence of sea ice in the future, the availability of polar bear prey is not guaranteed. Under a worst-case emission scenario in which rates of greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unabated to century’s end, the uncertainties about polar bear status center on a potential for extinction. If the species were to persist, it would likely be restricted to a high-latitude refugium in northern Canada and Greenland—assuming a food web also existed with enough accessible prey to fuel weight gains for surviving onshore during the most extreme years of summer ice melt. On the other hand, if emissions were to be aggressively mitigated at the levels proposed in the Paris Climate Agreement, healthy polar bear populations would probably continue to occupy all but the most southern areas of their contemporary summer range. While polar bears have survived previous warming phases—which indicate some resiliency to the loss of sea ice habitat—what is certain is that the present pace of warming is unprecedented and will increasingly expose polar bears to historically novel stressors.

Southern Hemisphere circulation signals in connection with winter rainfall forecasting in central Chile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rutlant, J.; Aceituno, P.

1991-05-01

The possibility of detecting easterly propagating low frequency signals in the Southern Hemispheric circulation is explored in connection with the assessment of a possible seasonal rainfall forecast in central Chile. The analysis has focused on the seasonal variability associated with the biennial component of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and on the one resulting from superimposed intraseasonal oscillations, in relation with winter precipitation and individual rainfall events, respectively. Based on a previous work, relating wet winters to frequent blocks to the SW of South America during warm events of the SO, time-longitude cross sections of a 5-day average blocking index (BI) calculated from ECMWF 200 hPa daily hemispheric analyses for the period 1980-1987 are presented. A general eastward displacement of western and central Pacific positive BI areas seems to characterize the developing phase of warm SO events and vice versa, while intraseasonal variability patterns appear to be related to single rainstorms, either when the positive BI phase of the wave amplifies while crossing the western Pacific or when it reaches the far southeastern Pacific, frequently with a double block structure. It is concluded that the behaviour of both sources of variability is consistent with previously described teleconnection patterns for ENSO events in the southern winter, and that a primary prospect for winter precipitation and for the occurrence of relatively large individual rainstorms in central Chile could be obtained following the filtered BI and 500 hPa height anomalies in both time scales during the fall season. (author). 28 refs, 12 figs

Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world

Science.gov (United States)

Cattiaux, J.; Cassou, C.

2015-12-01

Strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow over Europe control a large part of the temperature variability over most of the continent. Reduced westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold conditions in winter and warm conditions in summer. Here we propose to define the onset of these two seasons as the calendar day where the daily circulation/temperature relationship over Western Europe switches sign. According to this meteorologically-based metrics assessed from several observational datasets, we provide robust evidence for an earlier summer onset by ~10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from model ensemble simulations dedicated to detection-attribution show that this calendar advance is incompatible with the sole internal climate variability and can be attributed to anthropogenic forcings. Late winter snow disappearance over Eastern Europe affects cold air intrusion to the West when easterlies blow, and is mainly responsible for the observed present-day and near-future summer advance. Our findings agree with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe, for which they provide a novel dynamical interpretation beyond the traditionally evoked global warming effect. Based on business-as-usual scenario, a seasonal shift of ~25 days is expected by 2100 for summer onset, while no clear signal arises for winter onset.

Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoerling, M.P.; Xu, T.; Bates, G.T. [Climate Diagnostics Center NOAA, Boulder, CO 80305-3328 (United States); Hurrell, J.W.; Phillips, A.S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

2004-09-01

Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden ''switch-on'' of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts. (orig.)

Raising of Operating a Motor Vehicle Effects on Environment in Winter

Science.gov (United States)

Ertman, S. A.; Ertman, J. A.; Zakharov, D. A.

2016-08-01

Severe low-temperature conditions, in which considerable part of Russian Motor Park is operated, affect vehicles negatively. Cold weather causes higher fuel consumption and C02 emissions always. It is because of temperature profile changing of automobile motors, other systems and materials. For enhancement of car operation efficiency in severe winter environment the dependency of engine warm-up and cooling time on ambient air temperature and wind speed described by multifactorial mathematical models is established. -On the basis of experimental research it was proved that the coolant temperature constitutes the engine representative temperature and may be used as representative temperature of engine at large. The model of generation of integrated index for vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines was developed. the method for evaluation of vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines allows to decrease higher fuel consumption in cold climate.

Effects of recent warm and cold spells on European plant phenology

Science.gov (United States)

Menzel, A.; Estrella, N.; Seifert, H.

2009-04-01

Europe or the percentages of crossing 3sd were greater than 1%, respectively. For spring phases, e.g., we analysed the warm spring spells of March, April and spring 1989, February and March 1990, March 2001, February 2002, and the cold spells of February 1952, spring 1955, February 1956, and March 1996. Due to the restrictions of the COST database, we used as phenological reference 1930-1939 average data from European maps published by SCHNELLE in 1965. They comprise mean starting dates of five phenological seasons from spring to autumn include beginning of (1) sowing of summer cereals for the season of earliest to early spring, (2) flowering of apple in full spring, (3) formation of ears of winter wheat in the middle of early summer, (4) harvest of winter wheat at the end of full summer, and (5) sowing of winter wheat in the later part of full autumn. The maps were scanned in two pieces on a A3 scanner. A highly novel semi-automatic procedure for classification and digitalisation in ArcGIS and Definiens Developer was set up to orthorectify the map, to eliminate all background artefacts, redundant mapping, such as the grid, altitudinal shading, rivers, annotations, and to digitise the isoline information as shape files. Finally, the mean onset dates were re-assembled on a 0.5° grid. Phenological extremes were calculated as deviations of the actual onset dates in the COST725 database from the corresponding seasonal mean by SCHNELLE seasons at the nearest grid point. The results highlight that cold and warm spells are in general very well mirrored by phenology. Apparent spatial differences might result from different chilling conditions in winter leading to non linear responses of warming in spring. Warm spells may result in spatially heterogeneous acceleration of plant development, the impact of cold spells should be more homogenous in space.

Investigation the Concentration and Trend of Winter Precipitation of Iranian Border Stations over the Last Half Century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keyvan Khalili

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Climate change in the current era is a very important environmental challenge. Our understanding of the impacts of human activities on the environment, especially those related to global warming caused by increased greenhouse gases indicates that, most probably, a number of hydro-climatic parameters are changing. Based on the scientific reports, the average temperature of the earth has increased about 0.6 degrees centigrade over the 20th century and it is expected that the amount of evaporation continues to rise. In this case, the atmosphere would be able to transport larger amounts of water vapor, influencing the amount of atmospheric precipitations (21. Low precipitation and its severe fluctuations in the daily, seasonal and annual time scales are the intrinsic characteristics of Iran’s climates. Based on the research background, it seems that no comprehensive study has been conducted on concentration of winter precipitation in Iran. The aim of this study is to calculate the concentration and Trend of precipitation of Iranian border stations over the last half-century. Materials and Methods: Iran with an area of over16480000 square kilometers is situated in the northern hemisphere and southwest of Asia. Almost all parts of Iran have four seasons. In general, a year can be divided into two warm and cold seasons. In this study, 18 stations were selected among more than 200 synoptic stations existing in the country, for investigating the concentration and precipitation trend. PCI Index The PCI index has been proposed as an index of precipitation concentration. The seasonal scales of this index are calculated as equation 1(18: (1 Where Pi is the amount of monthly precipitation in the ith month. Based on the proposed formula, the minimum value of theoretical PCI is 8.3, indicating absolute uniformity in the precipitation concentration (i.e. the same amount of precipitation occurs every month. Trend analysis The aim of process test

Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A.Yu.; Anstey, J.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Baldwin, M.P.; Black, R.X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.;

Effects of the "New Climate" warmed in Northern Africa and Western Europe: the situation of meteorological drought and floods 2015-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Karrouk, M. S.

2016-12-01

"New Climate" subjected to North Africa, Western Europe and geoclimatic midlatitude space atmospheric effects of the new regime characterized by the supremacy of the Meridian Atmospheric Circulation (MAC), by alternating cool conditions (humidity) heat (drought) along the year, and imposes situation of anxiety and perplexity towards their socio-economic activities; shoved agricultural calendar, hesitant policymakers, uncertainty and waiting, ... etc.The recent example of the fall-winter 2015-2016 is indicative of the conditions that have left a deep psychological, economic and social footprint on the North African and West European people.During this period, the summer heat has extended to the end of autumn and even winter. And precipitation contracted by more than 51% of accumulated rainfall autumn in Morocco, compared with the same period a normal year. A slowdown in economic growth has been felt since last December and was extended until the rains return (and snow!) In mid February 2016.Weather conditions during this period were marked by the succession and persistence of very active planetary crests (Azores anticyclone), projected to the northern borders of Western Europe (Heat Christmas 2015!), rejecting the negative waves (polar Vortex) to the east: Algeria, Tunisia, Italy, the Balkans, Anatolia, and even the Middle East.These conditions are the consequences of the "New Climate" warmed, strengthened by the strong El Niño event in 2015.The identification of hemispheric and regional climate mechanisms of these atmospheric regime systems based on energy balance and atmospheric circulation will be defined, with links of cause and effect, in view of integrating these characters to extreme events in the New Climate Warmed.

Extension of the PMV model to non-air-conditioned building in warm climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

2002-01-01

The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

2001-01-01

Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown on-board sequential, sun-synchronous, polar orbiting NOAA operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by the satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help the onboard warm black body temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically weighted global mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid-troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 K per decade (with an uncertainty of 0.05 K per decade) during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite deuced result.

Vertical and interhemispheric links in the stratosphere-mesosphere as revealed by the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS temperature data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Xu

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The coupling processes in the middle atmosphere have been a subject of intense research activity because of their effects on atmospheric circulation, structure, variability, and the distribution of chemical constituents. In this study, the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder temperature data are used to reveal the vertical and interhemispheric coupling processes in the stratosphere-mesosphere during four Northern Hemisphere winters (2004/2005–2007/2008. The UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office assimilated data and mesospheric winds from MF (medium frequency radars are also applied to help highlight the coupling processes.

In this study, a clear vertical link can be seen between the stratosphere and mesosphere during winter months. The coolings and reversals of northward meridional winds in the polar winter mesosphere are often observed in relation to warming events (Sudden Stratospheric Warming, SSW for short and the associated changes in zonal winds in the polar winter stratosphere. An upper-mesospheric cooling usually precedes the beginning of the warming in the stratosphere by 1–2 days.

Inter-hemispheric coupling has been identified initially by a correlation analysis using the year-to-year monthly zonal mean temperature. Then the correlation analyses are performed based upon the daily zonal mean temperature. From the original time sequences, significant positive (negative correlations are generally found between zonal mean temperatures at the Antarctic summer mesopause and in the Arctic winter stratosphere (mesosphere during northern mid-winters, although these correlations are dominated by the low frequency variability (i.e. the seasonal trend. Using the short-term oscillations (less than 15 days, the statistical result, by looking for the largest magnitude of correlation within a range of time-lags (0 to 10 days; positive lags mean that the Antarctic summer mesopause is lagging, indicates

Vertical and interhemispheric links in the stratosphere-mesosphere as revealed by the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS temperature data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Xu

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The coupling processes in the middle atmosphere have been a subject of intense research activity because of their effects on atmospheric circulation, structure, variability, and the distribution of chemical constituents. In this study, the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder temperature data are used to reveal the vertical and interhemispheric coupling processes in the stratosphere-mesosphere during four Northern Hemisphere winters (2004/2005–2007/2008. The UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office assimilated data and mesospheric winds from MF (medium frequency radars are also applied to help highlight the coupling processes. In this study, a clear vertical link can be seen between the stratosphere and mesosphere during winter months. The coolings and reversals of northward meridional winds in the polar winter mesosphere are often observed in relation to warming events (Sudden Stratospheric Warming, SSW for short and the associated changes in zonal winds in the polar winter stratosphere. An upper-mesospheric cooling usually precedes the beginning of the warming in the stratosphere by 1–2 days. Inter-hemispheric coupling has been identified initially by a correlation analysis using the year-to-year monthly zonal mean temperature. Then the correlation analyses are performed based upon the daily zonal mean temperature. From the original time sequences, significant positive (negative correlations are generally found between zonal mean temperatures at the Antarctic summer mesopause and in the Arctic winter stratosphere (mesosphere during northern mid-winters, although these correlations are dominated by the low frequency variability (i.e. the seasonal trend. Using the short-term oscillations (less than 15 days, the statistical result, by looking for the largest magnitude of correlation within a range of time-lags (0 to 10 days; positive lags mean that the Antarctic summer mesopause is lagging, indicates that the temporal

The role of atmospheric nuclear explosions on the stagnation of global warming in the mid 20th century

Science.gov (United States)

Fujii, Yoshiaki

2011-04-01

This study suggests that the cause of the stagnation in global warming in the mid 20th century was the atmospheric nuclear explosions detonated between 1945 and 1980. The estimated GST drop due to fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions based on the published simulation results by other researchers (a single column model and Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) has served to explain the stagnation in global warming. Atmospheric nuclear explosions can be regarded as full-scale in situ tests for nuclear winter. The non-negligible amount of GST drop from the actual atmospheric explosions suggests that nuclear winter is not just a theory but has actually occurred, albeit on a small scale. The accuracy of the simulations of GST by IPCC would also be improved significantly by introducing the influence of fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions into their climate models; thus, global warming behavior could be more accurately predicted.

Chemical and Dynamical Impacts of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on Arctic Ozone Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Strahan, S. E.; Douglass, A. R.; Steenrod, S. D.

2016-01-01

We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields to quantify heterogeneous chemical ozone loss in Arctic winters 2005-2015. Comparisons to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder N2O and O3 observations show the GMI simulation credibly represents the transport processes and net heterogeneous chemical loss necessary to simulate Arctic ozone. We find that the maximum seasonal ozone depletion varies linearly with the number of cold days and with wave driving (eddy heat flux) calculated from MERRA fields. We use this relationship and MERRA temperatures to estimate seasonal ozone loss from 1993 to 2004 when inorganic chlorine levels were in the same range as during the Aura period. Using these loss estimates and the observed March mean 63-90N column O3, we quantify the sensitivity of the ozone dynamical resupply to wave driving, separating it from the sensitivity of ozone depletion to wave driving. The results show that about 2/3 of the deviation of the observed March Arctic O3 from an assumed climatological mean is due to variations in O3 resupply and 13 is due to depletion. Winters with a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) before mid-February have about 1/3 the depletion of winters without one and export less depletion to the midlatitudes. However, a larger effect on the spring midlatitude ozone comes from dynamical differences between warm and cold Arctic winters, which can mask or add to the impact of exported depletion.

Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bintanja, R.; Krikken, F.

2016-01-01

Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-Albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-The-Art global

Communicating Certainty About Nuclear Winter

Science.gov (United States)

Robock, A.

2013-12-01

Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), I inserted a paragraph pointing out that volcanic eruptions serve as an analog that supports new work on nuclear winter. This is the first time that nuclear winter has been in the IPCC report. I will tell the story of the discussions within our chapter, with review editors, and with the IPCC leadership that resulted in a box in Chapter 8 that discusses nuclear winter. We gave a briefing to John Holdren, the President's Science Advisor, about the work. Daniel Ellsberg, Fidel Castro, and Mikhail Gorbachev found out about our work, and used the results to appeal for nuclear abolition. In 2013 the work was featured at the Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons in Oslo, Norway attended by 132 nations, and I gave a TEDx talk, I published an opinion piece on the CNN website, and I gave an invited public lecture in Nagasaki, Japan, all about the climatic consequences of nuclear war. I am now using Twitter and Facebook to communicate about nuclear winter. The threat that nuclear weapons pose to the planet is a much easier problem to solve than global warming. We need to eliminate nuclear weapons so we have the luxury of working on the global warming problem without the possibility of the existential global threat still posed by the global nuclear arsenal.

[Temporal and spatial change of climate resources and meteorological disasters under climate change during winter crop growing season in Guangdong Province, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hua; Chen, Hui Hua; Tang, Li Sheng; Wang, Juan Huai; Tang, Hai Yan

2018-01-01

Trend analysis method was applied to analyze the general variation characteristics of the climate resources and meteorological disasters of growing season of the winter planting in Guangdong before (1961-1996) and after climate warming (1997-2015). Percentile method was employed to determine thresholds for extreme cold and drought in major planting regions, and the characteristics of extreme disasters since climate warming were analyzed. The results showed that, by comparing 1997-2015 with 1961-1996, the heat value in winter growing season increased significantly. The belt with a higher heat value, where the average temperature was ≥15 ℃ and accumulated temperature was ≥2200 ℃·d, covered the main winter production regions as Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Meizhou and Guangzhou. Meanwhile, the precipitation witnessed a slight increase. The regions with precipitations of 250-350 mm included Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and Meizhou. Chilling injury in the winter planting season in the regions decreased, the belt with an accumulated chilling of climate resources and the occurrence law of meteorological disasters in growing season.

Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavers, David A; Allan, Richard P; Brayshaw, David J; Villarini, Gabriele; Lloyd-Hughes, Benjamin; Wade, Andrew J

2013-01-01

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing. (letter)

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-01-01

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

IOCCG Report Number 16, 2015 Ocean Colour Remote Sensing in Polar Seas . Chapter 2; The Polar Environment: Sun, Clouds, and Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Perovich, Don; Stamnes, Knut; Stuart, Venetia (Editor)

2015-01-01

The polar regions are places of extremes. There are months when the regions are enveloped in unending darkness, and months when they are in continuous daylight. During the daylight months the sun is low on the horizon and often obscured by clouds. In the dark winter months temperatures are brutally cold, and high winds and blowing snow are common. Even in summer, temperatures seldom rise above 0degC. The cold winter temperatures cause the ocean to freeze, forming sea ice. This sea ice cover acts as a barrier limiting the transfer of heat, moisture, and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean. It also greatly complicates the optical signature of the surface. Taken together, these factors make the polar regions a highly challenging environment for optical remote sensing of the ocean.

How Will Climate Warming Affect Non-Native Pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus Populations in the U.K.?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grzegorz Zięba

Full Text Available Of the non-native fishes introduced to the U.K., the pumpkinseed is one of six species predicted to benefit from the forecasted climate warming conditions. To demonstrate the potential response of adults and their progeny to a water temperature increase, investigations of parental pumpkinseed acclimatization, reproduction and YOY over-wintering were carried out in outdoor experimental ponds under ambient and elevated water temperature regimes. No temperature effects were observed on either adult survivorship and growth, and none of the assessed reproductive activity variables (total spawning time, spawning season length, number of spawning bouts appeared to be responsible for the large differences observed in progeny number and biomass. However, it was demonstrated in a previous study [Zięba G. et al., 2010] that adults in the heated ponds began spawning earlier than those of the ambient ponds. Ambient ponds produced 2.8× more progeny than the heated ponds, but these progeny were significantly smaller, probably due to their late hatching date, and subsequently suffered very high mortality over the first winter. Pumpkinseed in the U.K. will clearly benefit from climate warming through earlier seasonal reproduction, resulting in larger progeny going into winter, and as a result, higher over-winter survivorship would be expected relative to that which occurs under the present climatic regime.

Relationship between the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and the onset of stratospheric final warming in the northern Hemisphere

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Jinggao; Li, Tim; Xu, Haiming

2018-01-01

The seasonal timing or onset date of the stratospheric final warming (SFWOD) events has a considerable interannual variability. This paper reports a statistically significant relationship between the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and SFWOD in the Northern Hemisphere in two sub-periods (1951-1978 and 1979-2015). Specifically, in the first (second) sub-period, the NPGO is negatively (positively) linked with SFWOD. Composite analyses associated with anomalous NPGO years are conducted to diagnose the dynamic processes of the NPGO-SFWOD link. During 1951-1978, positive NPGO years tend to strengthen the Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern in the mid-troposphere in boreal winter. The strengthened PNA pattern in February leads to strong planetary wave activity in the extratropical stratosphere from late February to March and causes the early onset of SFW in early April. By contrast, a strengthened Western Pacific pattern from January to early February in negative NPGO years causes a burst of planetary waves in both the troposphere and extratropical stratosphere from late January to mid-February and results in more winter stratospheric sudden warming events, which, in turn, leads to a dormant spring and a late onset of SFW in late April. During 1979-2015, positive (negative) NPGO years strongly strengthen (weaken) the mid-tropospheric Aleutian low and the Western Pacific pattern from January to mid-March, leading to increased (decreased) planetary wavenumber-1 activity in the stratosphere from mid- to late winter and thus more (less) winter stratospheric sudden warming events and late (early) onsets of SFW in early May (mid-April).

Global Warming: A Review of the Debates on the Causes ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

USER

Humans have changed the chemistry of the earth's atmosphere; most .... computer models predict that the effects of global warming will be very strong in the polar ..... to Monckton (2011) and Riebeek (2007), a natural decline in cloud cover.

Influence of the Gulf Stream on the Barents Sea ice retreat and Eurasian coldness during early winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Watanabe, Masahiro

2014-01-01

Abnormal sea-ice retreat over the Barents Sea during early winter has been considered a leading driver of recent midlatitude severe winters over Eurasia. However, causal relationships between such retreat and the atmospheric circulation anomalies remains uncertain. Using a reanalysis dataset, we found that poleward shift of a sea surface temperature front over the Gulf Stream likely induces warm southerly advection and consequent sea-ice decline over the Barents Sea sector, and a cold anomaly over Eurasia via planetary waves triggered over the Gulf Stream region. The above mechanism is supported by the steady atmospheric response to the diabatic heating anomalies over the Gulf Stream region obtained with a linear baroclinic model. The remote atmospheric response from the Gulf Stream would be amplified over the Barents Sea region via interacting with sea-ice anomaly, promoting the warm Arctic and cold Eurasian pattern. (letter)

Evolution of stratospheric ozone during winter 2002/2003 as observed by a ground-based millimetre wave radiometer at Kiruna, Sweden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

U. Raffalski

2005-01-01

Full Text Available We present ozone measurements from the millimetre wave radiometer installed at the Swedish Institute of Space Physics (Institutet för rymdfysik, IRF in Kiruna (67.8° N, 20.4° E, 420 m asl. Nearly continuous operation in the winter of 2002/2003 allows us to give an overview of ozone evolution in the stratosphere between 15 and 55 km. In this study we present a detailed analysis of the Arctic winter 2002/2003. By means of a methodology using equivalent latitudes we investigate the meteorological processes in the stratosphere during the entire winter/spring period. During the course of the winter strong mixing into the vortex took place in the middle and upper stratosphere as a result of three minor and one major warming event, but no evidence was found for significant mixing in the lower stratosphere. Ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere during this winter was estimated by measurements on those days when Kiruna was well inside the Arctic polar vortex. The days were carefully chosen using a definition of the vortex edge based on equivalent latitudes. At the 475 K isentropic level a cumulative ozone loss of about 0.5 ppmv was found starting in January and lasting until mid-March. The early ozone loss is probably a result of the very cold temperatures in the lower stratosphere in December and the geographical extension of the vortex to lower latitudes where solar irradiation started photochemical ozone loss in the pre-processed air. In order to correct for dynamic effects of the ozone variation due to diabatic subsidence of air masses inside the vortex, we used N2O measurements from the Odin satellite for the same time period. The derived ozone loss in the lower stratosphere between mid-December and mid-March varies between 1.1±0.1 ppmv on the 150 ppbv N2O isopleth and 1.7±0.1 ppmv on the 50 ppbv N2O isopleth.

Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter cyclones variability over the 20th century derived from ERA-20C reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Varino, Filipa; Arbogast, Philippe; Joly, Bruno; Riviere, Gwendal; Fandeur, Marie-Laure; Bovy, Henry; Granier, Jean-Baptiste

2018-03-01

The multi-decadal variations of wintertime extra-tropical cyclones during the last century are studied using a vorticity-based tracking algorithm applied to the long-term ERA-20C reanalysis from ECMWF. The variability of moderate-to-deep extra-tropical winter cyclones in ERA-20C show three distinct periods. Two at the beginning and at the end of the century (1900-1935 and 1980-2010) present weak or no significant trends in the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and only some regional trends. The period in between (1935-1980) is marked by a significant increase in Northern Hemisphere moderate-to-deep cyclones frequency. During the latter period, polar regions underwent a significant cooling over the whole troposphere that increased and shifted poleward the mid-latitude meridional temperature gradient and the baroclinicity. This is linked to positive-to-negative shifts of the PDO between 1935 and 1957 and of the AMO between 1957 and 1980 which mainly reinforced the storm-track eddy generation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions respectively, as seen from baroclinic conversion from mean to eddy potential energy. As a result, both the North Pacific and North Atlantic extra-tropical storms increase in frequency during the two subperiods (1935-1957 and 1957-1980), together with other storm-track quantities such as the high-frequency eddy kinetic energy. In contrast, the first and third periods are characterized by a warming of the polar temperatures. However, as the stronger warming is confined to the lower troposphere, the baroclinicity do not uniformly increase in the whole troposphere. This may explain why the recent rapid increase in polar temperatures has not affected the behaviour of extratropical cyclones very much. Finally, the large magnitude of the positive trend found in moderate-to-deep cyclone frequency during the second period is still questioned as the period is marked by an important increase in the number of assimilated observations. However, the

Unusually amplified summer or winter indoor levels of radon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gammage, R.B.; Dudney, C.S.; Wilson, D.L.

1993-01-01

The ratios of winter/summer indoor radon levels for houses in different regions of the southern Appalachians are characterized by individual log-normal distributions with geometric means both above and below unity. In some counties and cities, subpopulations of houses have unusually exaggerated winter/summer ratios of indoor radon, as well as high indoor radon levels, during periods of either warm or cool weather. It is proposed that in many instances, houses are communicating with larger than normal underground reservoirs of radon-bearing air in hilly karst terrains; differences between the outdoor and underground air temperatures are believed to provide density gradients producing aerostatic pressure differences for seasonally directed underground transport and subsequently elevated indoor radon. These seasonal movements of air are analogous to the well-known underground chimney effects, which produce interzonal flows of air inside caves

The MaCWAVE program to study gravity wave influences on the polar mesosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. A. Goldberg

2006-07-01

was suggested to be due to enhanced planetary wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere and a surprising degree of inter-hemispheric coupling. The winter program was designed to study the upward propagation and penetration of mountain waves from northern Scandinavia into the MLT at a site favored for such penetration. As the major response was expected to be downstream (east of Norway, these motions were measured with similar rocket sequences to those used in the summer campaign, but this time at Esrange. However, a major polar stratospheric warming just prior to the rocket launch window induced small or reversed stratospheric zonal winds, which prevented mountain wave penetration into the mesosphere. Instead, mountain waves encountered critical levels at lower altitudes and the observed wave structure in the mesosphere originated from other sources. For example, a large-amplitude semidiurnal tide was observed in the mesosphere on 28 and 29 January, and appears to have contributed to significant instability and small-scale structures at higher altitudes. The resulting energy deposition was found to be competitive with summertime values. Hence, our MaCWAVE measurements as a whole are the first to characterize influences in the MLT region of planetary wave activity and related stratospheric warmings during both winter and summer.

Climate change in winter versus the growing-season leads to different effects on soil microbial activity in northern hardwood forests

Science.gov (United States)

Sorensen, P. O.; Templer, P. H.; Finzi, A.

2014-12-01

Mean winter air temperatures have risen by approximately 2.5˚ C per decade over the last fifty years in the northeastern U.S., reducing the maximum depth of winter snowpack by approximately 26 cm over this period and the duration of winter snow cover by 3.6 to 4.2 days per decade. Forest soils in this region are projected to experience a greater number of freeze-thaw cycles and lower minimum winter soil temperatures as the depth and duration of winter snow cover declines in the next century. Climate change is likely to result not only in lower soil temperatures during winter, but also higher soil temperatures during the growing-season. We conducted two complementary experiments to determine how colder soils in winter and warmer soils in the growing-season affect microbial activity in hardwood forests at Harvard Forest, MA and Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH. A combination of removing snow via shoveling and buried heating cables were used to induce freeze-thaw events during winter and to warm soils 5˚C above ambient temperatures during the growing-season. Increasing the depth and duration of soil frost via snow-removal resulted in short-term reductions in soil nitrogen (N) production via microbial proteolytic enzyme activity and net N mineralization following snowmelt, prior to tree leaf-out. Declining mass specific rates of carbon (C) and N mineralization associated with five years of snow removal at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest may be an indication of microbial physiological adaptation to winter climate change. Freeze-thaw cycles during winter reduced microbial extracellular enzyme activity and the temperature sensitivity of microbial C and N mineralization during the growing-season, potentially offsetting nutrient and soil C losses due to soil warming in the growing-season. Our multiple experimental approaches show that winter climate change is likely to contribute to reduced microbial activity in northern hardwood forests.

Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karyn D Rode

Full Text Available Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013 when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia, highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Durner, George M.; Douglas, David C.; Nielson, R.M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.; Mauritzen, Mette; Born, E.W.; Wiig, O.; Deweaver, E.; Serreze, Mark C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Holland, M.M.; Maslanik, J.; Aars, Jon; Bailey, D.A.; Derocher, A.E.

2009-01-01

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic

Environmental life cycle assessments of producing maize, grass-clover, ryegrass and winter wheat straw for biorefinery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parajuli, Ranjan; Kristensen, Ib Sillebak; Knudsen, Marie Trydeman

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to assess the potential environmental impacts of producing maize, grass-clover, ryegrass, and straw from winter wheat as biomass feedstocks for biorefinery. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method included the following impact categories: Global Warming Potential (GWP100),...

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

Science.gov (United States)

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A

2011-02-08

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

A consistent definition of the Arctic polar vortex breakup in both the lower and upper stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, W.; Seo, J.

2014-12-01

Breakup of the polar vortex is a dominant feature of the seasonal transition from winter to summer in the stratosphere, which significantly affects stratospheric O3 concentration and tropospheric weather. Previously several criteria for the vortex breakup have been suggested based on the potential vorticity (PV) and wind speed, however, those mainly have focused on the lower stratospheric vortex of which spatiotemporal evolution and decay are more continuous than those of the upper stratospheric vortex. To find a consistent criterion for the vortex breakup in both the lower and upper stratosphere, the present study defined a polar vortex breakup day as when PV gradient at the polar vortex edge becomes lower than that at the subtropical edge on the area equivalent latitude based on PV. With applying the new definition to the UK Met Office reanalysis data, the breakup days of the Arctic polar vortices on 18 isentropic levels from 450 K to 1300 K were calculated for the period of 1993-2005. In comparison with CH4, N2O and O3 measured by the ILAS and POAM II/III satellite instruments, the breakup days are well consistent with changes in the distribution of such tracers as well as their zonal standard deviations associated with the vortex structure breaking and irreversible mixing. The vortex breakup in the upper stratosphere occurs more or less a month prior to that in the middle and lower stratosphere while the stratospheric final warming events occurs simultaneously in the upper and lower stratosphere.

Warming patterns in regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gomez-Navarro, J.J.; Montavez, J.P.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Garcia-Valero, J.A. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Delegacion Territorial en Murcia (ES). Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera

2010-06-15

A set of four regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula has been performed. Simulations were driven by two General Circulation Models (consisting of two versions of the same atmospheric model coupled to two different ocean models) under two different SRES scenario. The XXI century has been simulated following a full-transient approach with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF) is applied to the monthly mean series of daily maximum and minimum 2-metre temperature to extract the warming signal. The first EOF is able to capture the spatial structure of the warming. The obtained warming patterns are fairly dependent on the month, but hardly change with the tested scenarios and GCM versions. Their shapes are related to geographical parameters, such as distance to the sea and orography. The main differences among simulations mostly concern the temporal evolution of the warming. The temperature trend is stronger for maximum temperatures and depends on the scenario and the driving GCM. This asymmetry, as well as the different warming rates in summer and winter, leads to a continentalization of the climate over the IP. (orig.)

Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers

Science.gov (United States)

Oltmanns, Marilena; Karstensen, Johannes; Fischer, Jürgen

2018-04-01

A shutdown of ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, triggered by enhanced melting over Greenland, is regarded as a potential transition point into a fundamentally different climate regime1-3. Noting that a key uncertainty for future convection resides in the relative importance of melting in summer and atmospheric forcing in winter, we investigate the extent to which summer conditions constrain convection with a comprehensive dataset, including hydrographic records that are over a decade in length from the convection regions. We find that warm and fresh summers, characterized by increased sea surface temperatures, freshwater concentrations and melting, are accompanied by reduced heat and buoyancy losses in winter, which entail a longer persistence of the freshwater near the surface and contribute to delaying convection. By shortening the time span for the convective freshwater export, the identified seasonal dynamics introduce a potentially critical threshold that is crossed when substantial amounts of freshwater from one summer are carried over into the next and accumulate. Warm and fresh summers in the Irminger Sea are followed by particularly short convection periods. We estimate that in the winter 2010-2011, after the warmest and freshest Irminger Sea summer on our record, 40% of the surface freshwater was retained.

Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Harsch, Melanie A; Hulme, Philip E; McGlone, Matt S; Duncan, Richard P

2009-10-01

Treelines are temperature sensitive transition zones that are expected to respond to climate warming by advancing beyond their current position. Response to climate warming over the last century, however, has been mixed, with some treelines showing evidence of recruitment at higher altitudes and/or latitudes (advance) whereas others reveal no marked change in the upper limit of tree establishment. To explore this variation, we analysed a global dataset of 166 sites for which treeline dynamics had been recorded since 1900 AD. Advance was recorded at 52% of sites with only 1% reporting treeline recession. Treelines that experienced strong winter warming were more likely to have advanced, and treelines with a diffuse form were more likely to have advanced than those with an abrupt or krummholz form. Diffuse treelines may be more responsive to warming because they are more strongly growth limited, whereas other treeline forms may be subject to additional constraints.

Persisting and strong warming hiatus over eastern China during the past two decades

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao

2017-10-01

During the past two decades since 1997, eastern China has experienced a warming hiatus punctuated by significant cooling in daily-minimum temperature (Tmin), particularly during early-mid winter. By arbitrarily configuring start and end years, a ‘vantage hiatus period’ in eastern China is detected over 1998-2013, during when the domain-averaged Tmin exhibited the strongest cooling trend and the number of significant cooling stations peaked. Regions most susceptible to the warming hiatus are located in North China, the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and South China, where significant cooling in Tmin persisted through 2016. This sustained hiatus gave rise to increasingly frequent and severe cold extremes there. Concerning its prolonged persistency and great cooling rate, the recent warming hiatus over eastern China deviates much from most historical short-term trends during the past five decades, and thus could be viewed as an outlier against the prevalent warming context.

Remote identification of potential polar bear maternal denning habitat in northern Alaska using airborne LiDAR

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, B. M.; Durner, G. M.; Stoker, J.; Shideler, R.; Perham, C.; Liston, G. E.

2013-12-01

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations throughout the Arctic are being threatened by reductions in critical sea ice habitat. Throughout much of their range, polar bears give birth to their young in winter dens that are excavated in snowdrifts. New-born cubs, which are unable to survive exposure to Arctic winter weather, require 2-3 months of the relatively warm, stable, and undisturbed environment of the den for their growth. In the southern Beaufort Sea (BS), polar bears may den on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP).The proportion of dens occurring on land has increased because of reductions in stable multi-year ice, increases in unconsolidated ice, and lengthening of the fall open-water period. Large portions of the ACP are currently being used for oil and gas activities and proposed projects will likely expand this footprint in the near future. Since petroleum exploration and development activities increase during winter there is the potential for human activities to disturb polar bears in maternal dens. Thus, maps showing the potential distribution of terrestrial denning habitat can help to mitigate negative interactions. Prior remote sensing efforts have consisted of manual interpretation of vertical aerial photography and automated classification of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture (IfSAR) derived digital terrain models (DTM) (5-m spatial resolution) focused on the identification of snowdrift forming landscape features. In this study, we assess the feasibility of airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data (2-m spatial resolution) for the automated classification of potential polar bear maternal denning habitat in a 1,400 km2 area on the central portion of the ACP. The study region spans the BS coast from the Prudhoe Bay oilfield in the west to near Point Thompson in the east and extends inland from 10 to 30 km. Approximately 800 km2 of the study area contains 19 known den locations, 51 field survey sites with information on bank height and

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Palm, Stephen P.; Strey, Sara T.; Spinhirne, James; Markus, Thorsten

2010-01-01

Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of 5 years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anticorrelation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice!free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7% and 10%, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5% 7%. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Because longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

Warming, soil moisture, and loss of snow increase Bromus tectorum’s population growth rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aldo Compagnoni

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Climate change threatens to exacerbate the impacts of invasive species. In temperate ecosystems, direct effects of warming may be compounded by dramatic reductions in winter snow cover. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum is arguably the most destructive biological invader in basins of the North American Intermountain West, and warming could increase its performance through direct effects on demographic rates or through indirect effects mediated by loss of snow. We conducted a two-year experimental manipulation of temperature and snow pack to test whether 1 warming increases cheatgrass population growth rate and 2 reduced snow cover contributes to cheatgrass’ positive response to warming. We used infrared heaters operating continuously to create the warming treatment, but turned heaters on only during snowfalls for the snowmelt treatment. We monitored cheatgrass population growth rate and the vital rates that determine it: emergence, survival and fecundity. Growth rate increased in both warming and snowmelt treatments. The largest increases occurred in warming plots during the wettest year, indicating that the magnitude of response to warming depends on moisture availability. Warming increased both fecundity and survival, especially in the wet year, while snowmelt contributed to the positive effects of warming by increasing survival. Our results indicate that increasing temperature will exacerbate cheatgrass impacts, especially where warming causes large reductions in the depth and duration of snow cover.

Amplified warming projections for high altitude regions of the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes from CMIP5 models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rangwala, Imtiaz; Sinsky, Eric; Miller, James R

2013-01-01

We use output from global climate models available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios to investigate whether the projected warming in mountains by the end of the 21st century is significantly different from that in low elevation regions. To remove the effects of latitudinal variation in warming rates, we focus on seasonal changes in the mid-latitude band of the northern hemisphere between 27.5° N and 40° N, where the two major mountain systems are the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas in Asia and the Rocky Mountains in the United States. Results from the multi-model ensemble indicate that warming rates in mountains will be enhanced relative to non-mountain regions at the same latitude, particularly during the cold season. The strongest correlations of enhanced warming with elevation are obtained for the daily minimum temperature during winter, with the largest increases found for the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas. The model projections indicate that this occurs, in part, because of proportionally greater increases in downward longwave radiation at higher elevations in response to increases in water vapor. The mechanisms for enhanced increases in winter and spring maximum temperatures in the Rockies appear to be influenced more by increases in surface absorption of solar radiation owing to a reduced snow cover. Furthermore, the amplification of warming with elevation is greater for a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario. (letter)

Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America

Science.gov (United States)

Kam, Jonghun; Knutson, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C. D.

2018-01-01

Over regions where snow-melt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snow melt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, a detection/attribution of changes in mid-latitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. In this study, robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability is evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central U.S., where winter-spring streamflows have been coming earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western U.S./southwestern Canada and in extreme northeastern U.S./Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow-free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments.

Polar Biomedical Research - An Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

1982-10-01

on agriculture and imported food and fuel silviculture Attenuated solar spectrum Reduces ultraviolet radiation, leading to possible vitamin D...for an expanded population. Any experiments in polar regions in food production involving geothermal heat, solar energy, hydroponics, or aquaculture...to water problems are those of accumulation of solid waste. During winter, such waste, including garbage and disposable diapers , near dwellings is a

Mediterranean climate change and Indian Ocean warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Hurrel, J.

2006-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) responses to 20. century changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases are diagnosed, with emphasis on their relationship to observed regional climate change over the Mediterranean region. A major question is whether the Mediterranean region's drying trend since 1950 can be understood as a consequence of the warming trend in tropical SSTs. We focus on the impact of Indian Ocean warming, which is itself the likely result of increasing greenhouse gases. It is discovered that a strong projection onto the positive polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index characterizes the atmospheric response structure to the 1950-1999 warming of Indian Ocean SSTs. This influence appears to be robust in so far as it is reproduced in ensembles of experiments using three different GCMs. Both the equilibrium and transient responses to Indian Ocean warming are examined. Under each scenario, the latitude of prevailing mid latitude westerlies shifts poleward during the November-April period. The consequence is a drying of the Mediterranean region, whereas northern Europe and Scandinavia receive increased precipitation in concert with the poleward shift of storminess. The IPCC (TAR) 20. century coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations forced by observed greenhouse gas changes also yield a post-1950 drying trend over the Mediterranean. We argue that this feature of human-induced regional climate change is the outcome of a dynamical feedback, one involving Indian Ocean warming and a requisite adjustment of atmospheric circulation systems to such ocean warming

Winter survival of Scots pine seedlings under different snow conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Domisch, Timo; Martz, Françoise; Repo, Tapani; Rautio, Pasi

2018-04-01

Future climate scenarios predict increased air temperatures and precipitation, particularly at high latitudes, and especially so during winter. Soil temperatures, however, are more difficult to predict, since they depend strongly on the fate of the insulating snow cover. 'Rain-on-snow' events and warm spells during winter can lead to thaw-freeze cycles, compacted snow and ice encasement, as well as local flooding. These adverse conditions could counteract the otherwise positive effects of climatic changes on forest seedling growth. In order to study the effects of different winter and snow conditions on young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings, we conducted a laboratory experiment in which 80 1-year-old Scots pine seedlings were distributed between four winter treatments in dasotrons: ambient snow cover (SNOW), compressed snow and ice encasement (ICE), flooded and frozen soil (FLOOD) and no snow (NO SNOW). During the winter treatment period and a 1.5-month simulated spring/early summer phase, we monitored the needle, stem and root biomass of the seedlings, and determined their starch and soluble sugar concentrations. In addition, we assessed the stress experienced by the seedlings by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence, electric impedance and photosynthesis of the previous-year needles. Compared with the SNOW treatment, carbohydrate concentrations were lower in the FLOOD and NO SNOW treatments where the seedlings had almost died before the end of the experiment, presumably due to frost desiccation of aboveground parts during the winter treatments. The seedlings of the ICE treatment showed dead needles and stems only above the snow and ice cover. The results emphasize the importance of an insulating and protecting snow cover for small forest tree seedlings, and that future winters with changed snow patterns might affect the survival of tree seedlings and thus forest productivity.

Think Warm Thoughts: Plan Ahead for Summertime Information Literacy Programs! The College Connection

Science.gov (United States)

Kasowitz-Scheer, Abby

2009-01-01

It's winter! While it is frosty outside, one can at least think warm thoughts by starting now to plan ahead for summer information literacy programs. This article is designed to provide some ideas for planning next summer's reading, sleuthing, and research programs. It features a variety of programs organized by academic librarians this past…

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat

Science.gov (United States)

Rupp, T. Scott; Olson, Mark; Adams, Layne G.; Dale, Bruce W.; Joly, Kyle; Henkelman, Jonathan; Collins, William B.; Starfield, Anthony M.

2006-01-01

Caribou are an integral component of high‐latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long‐term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5‐fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce–lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.

Chrysophyte cysts from lake sediments reveal the submillennial winter/spring climate variability in the northwestern Mediterranean region throughout the Holocene

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pla, Sergi [Queen' s University, PEARL, Department of Biology, Kingston, ON (Canada); Catalan, Jordi [CSIC, CSIC-UB Limnology Group, Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB), Blanes (Spain)

2005-02-01

In the last decade, much effort was dedicated to the reconstruction of past climate at high temporal resolution. Here, we show the suitability of chrysophyte cysts from lake sediments for revealing continental climate variability when used in sensitive sites, such as those in high mountains. We demonstrate that altitude is a main factor influencing the present distribution of chrysophytes and develop a transfer function to evaluate the local ''altitude anomaly'' on a lake site throughout time. Based on our knowledge of chrysophyte ecology, the altitude anomalies are interpreted as winter/spring climate signatures. The method was applied to a Holocene record from a lake in the Pyrenees showing submillennial climatic variability in this northwestern Mediterranean zone. A warming trend was present from the early Holocene to 4 kyear BP. Comparison with pollen-based reconstructions of summer temperatures denoted a contrasting decrease in continentality between the two parts of the Holocene. Oscillations of 1 cycle per ca. 2,000 years appeared throughout the record. The warmest Holocene winters were recorded during the Medieval Warm Period at ca. AD900 and 450 and the Roman Warm Period (2.7-2.4 kyear BP). Winters in the period AD1,050-1,175 were inferred to be as cold as in the Little Ice Age. The period between 3 and 7 kyear BPshowed lower intensity in the fluctuations than in early and late Holocene. The cold event, 8,200 years ago, appeared embedded in a warm fluctuation. Another cold fluctuation was recorded around 9 kyear BP, which is in agreement with Irish and Greenland records. (orig.)

Vulnerability and resilience of the carbon exchange o a subarctic peatland to an extreme winter event

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Rasse, Daniel P.; Lund, Magnus

2018-01-01

impact of this event. Our results indicate that gross primary production (GPP) exhibited a delayed response to temperature following snowmelt. From snowmelt up to the peak of summer, this reduced carbon uptake by 14 (0-24) g Cm-2 (similar to 12% of GPP in that period)-similar to the effect of interannual......Extreme winter events that damage vegetation are considered an important climatic cause of arctic browning-a reversal of the greening trend of the region-and possibly reduce the carbon uptake of northern ecosystems. Confirmation of a reduction in CO2 uptake due to winter damage, however, remains...... event. The warm summer also increased ecosystem respiration, which limited net carbon uptake. This study shows that damage from a single extreme winter event can have an ecosystem-wide impact on CO2 uptake, and highlights the importance of including winter-induced shrub damage in terrestrial ecosystem...

Update of the Polar SWIFT model for polar stratospheric ozone loss (Polar SWIFT version 2)

Science.gov (United States)

Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

2017-07-01

The Polar SWIFT model is a fast scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone depletion in polar winter. It is intended for use in global climate models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) to enable the simulation of mutual interactions between the ozone layer and climate. To date, climate models often use prescribed ozone fields, since a full stratospheric chemistry scheme is computationally very expensive. Polar SWIFT is based on a set of coupled differential equations, which simulate the polar vortex-averaged mixing ratios of the key species involved in polar ozone depletion on a given vertical level. These species are O3, chemically active chlorine (ClOx), HCl, ClONO2 and HNO3. The only external input parameters that drive the model are the fraction of the polar vortex in sunlight and the fraction of the polar vortex below the temperatures necessary for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. Here, we present an update of the Polar SWIFT model introducing several improvements over the original model formulation. In particular, the model is now trained on vortex-averaged reaction rates of the ATLAS Chemistry and Transport Model, which enables a detailed look at individual processes and an independent validation of the different parameterizations contained in the differential equations. The training of the original Polar SWIFT model was based on fitting complete model runs to satellite observations and did not allow for this. A revised formulation of the system of differential equations is developed, which closely fits vortex-averaged reaction rates from ATLAS that represent the main chemical processes influencing ozone. In addition, a parameterization for the HNO3 change by denitrification is included. The rates of change of the concentrations of the chemical species of the Polar SWIFT model are purely chemical rates of change in the new version, whereas in the original Polar SWIFT model, they included a transport effect caused by the

Effect of global warming on willingness to pay for uninterrupted electricity supply in European nations

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Jed; Moeltner, Klaus; Reichl, Johannes; Schmidthaler, Michael

2018-01-01

Predicted changes in temperature and other weather events may damage the electricity grid and cause power outages. Understanding the costs of power outages and how these costs change over time with global warming can inform outage-mitigation-investment decisions. Here we show that across 19 EU nations the value of uninterrupted electricity supply is strongly related to local temperatures, and will increase as the climate warms. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of data from a choice experiment and respondent-specific temperature measures reveals estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid an hour of power outage between €0.32 and €1.86 per household. WTP varies on the basis of season and is heterogeneous between European nations. Winter outages currently cause larger per household welfare losses than summer outages per hour of outage. However, this dynamic will begin to shift under plausible future climates, with summer outages becoming substantially more costly and winter outages becoming slightly less costly on a per-household, per-hour basis.

What Caused the Winter Drought in Western Nepal during Recent Years?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, S-Y (Simon); Yoon, Jin-Ho; Gillies, R.; Cho, Changrae

2013-11-01

Western Nepal has experienced consecutive and worsened winter drought conditions since 2000 culminating in a severe drought episode during 2008-2009. In this study, the meteorological conditons and a historical pespective of the winter droughts in western Nepal were analyzed using respectively instumental records and a paleoclimatic drought index. Althought decadal-scale drought conditions were found to be recurrent in the paleoclimate record, the severity of the recent decadal drought (since 2000) clearly stands out in the 700 years of record and, this is suggestive of potential anthropogenic influences in the recent decades. Meteorological diagnosis using atmospheric reanalysis in the recent decades revealed that (1) winter drought in western Nepal is linked to the Arctic Oscillation and its decadal variability, which initiates a tropospheric short-wave train across the Europe, Eurasia and South Asia, and that (2) the persistent warming of the Indian Ocean likely contributes to the suppression of rainfall through enhanced local Hadley circultion. It is therefore conceivable that the recent spells of decadal drought in Nepal drought are symptomatic of both natural variability and anthropogenic influences.

Diurnal Freeze-Thaw Cycles Modify Winter Soil Respiration in a Desert Shrub-Land Ecosystem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Liu

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Winter soil respiration (Rs is becoming a significant component of annual carbon budgets with more warming in winter than summer. However, little is known about the controlling mechanisms of winter Rs in dryland. We made continuous measurements of Rs in four microsites (non-crust (BS, lichen (LC, moss (MC, and a mixture of moss and lichen (ML in a desert shrub-land ecosystem northern China, to investigate the causes of Rs dynamics in winter. The mean winter Rs ranged from 0.10 to 0.17 µmol CO2 m−2·s−1 across microsites, with the highest value in BS. Winter Q10 (known as the increase in respiration rate per 10 °C increase in temperature values (2.8–19 were much higher than those from the growing season (1.5. Rs and Q10 were greatly enhanced in freeze-thaw cycles compared to frozen days. Diurnal patterns of Rs between freeze-thaw and frozen days differed. Although the freeze-thaw period was relatively short, its cumulative Rs contributed significantly to winter Rs. The presence of biocrust might induce lower temperature, thus having fewer freeze-thaw cycles relative to bare soil, leading to the lower Rs for microsites with biocrusts. In conclusion, winter Rs in drylands was sensitive to soil temperature (Ts and Ts-induced freeze-thaw cycles. The temperature impact on Rs varied among soil cover types. Winter Rs in drylands may become more important as the climate is continuously getting warmer.

A comparison of pine and spruce in recovery from winter stress; changes in recovery kinetics, and the abundance and phosphorylation status of photosynthetic proteins during winter.

Science.gov (United States)

Merry, Ryan; Jerrard, Jacob; Frebault, Julia; Verhoeven, Amy

2017-09-01

During winter evergreens maintain a sustained form of thermal energy dissipation that results in reduced photochemical efficiency measured using the chlorophyll fluorescence parameter Fv/Fm. Eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.) and white spruce [Picea glauca (Moench) Voss] have been shown to differ in their rate of recovery of Fv/Fm from winter stress. The goal of this study was to monitor changes in photosynthetic protein abundance and phosphorylation status during winter recovery that accompany these functional changes. An additional goal was to determine whether light-dependent changes in light harvesting complex II (LHCII) phosphorylation occur during winter conditions. We used a combination of field measurements and recovery experiments to monitor chlorophyll fluorescence and photosynthetic protein content and phosphorylation status. We found that pine recovered three times more slowly than spruce, and that the kinetics of recovery in spruce included a rapid and slow component, while in pine there was only a rapid component to recovery. Both species retained relatively high amounts of the light harvesting protein Lhcb5 (CP26) and the PsbS protein during winter, suggesting a role for these proteins in sustained thermal dissipation. Both species maintained high phosphorylation of LHCII and the D1 protein in darkness during winter. Pine and spruce differed in the kinetics of the dephosphorylation of LHCII and D1 upon warming, suggesting the rate of dephosphorylation of LHCII and D1 may be important in the rapid component of recovery from winter stress. Finally, we demonstrated that light-dependent changes in LHII phosphorylation do not continue to occur on subzero winter days and that needles are maintained in a phosphorylation pattern consistent with the high light conditions to which those needles are exposed. Our results suggest a role for retained phosphorylation of both LHCII and D1 in maintenance of the photosynthetic machinery in a winter conformation

Stratospheric minor species vertical distributions during polar winter by balloon borne UV-Vis spectrometry

Science.gov (United States)

Pommereau, J. P.; Piquard, J.

1994-01-01

A light, relatively cheap and easy to operate balloonborne UV-visible spectrometer was designed for investigating ozone photochemistry in the Arctic winter. The instrument was flown 11 times during the European Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Experiment (EASOE) in winter 1991-92 in Northern Scandinavia. The first simultaneous measurements of vertical distributions of aerosols, PSC's, O3, NO2 and OClO inside the vortex during flight no. 6 on 16 January, in cold conditions are reported, which show that nitrogen oxides were almost absent (lower than 100 ppt) in the stratosphere below 22 km, while a layer of relatively large OClO concentration (15 ppt) was present at the altitude of the minimum temperature.

King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Stenseth, Nils C; Park, Young-Hyang; Pradel, Roger; Grémillet, David; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon

2008-02-19

Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species, king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However, the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely, adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e., a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice, their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey, adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26 degrees C warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.

Update of the Polar SWIFT model for polar stratospheric ozone loss (Polar SWIFT version 2

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I. Wohltmann

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The Polar SWIFT model is a fast scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone depletion in polar winter. It is intended for use in global climate models (GCMs and Earth system models (ESMs to enable the simulation of mutual interactions between the ozone layer and climate. To date, climate models often use prescribed ozone fields, since a full stratospheric chemistry scheme is computationally very expensive. Polar SWIFT is based on a set of coupled differential equations, which simulate the polar vortex-averaged mixing ratios of the key species involved in polar ozone depletion on a given vertical level. These species are O3, chemically active chlorine (ClOx, HCl, ClONO2 and HNO3. The only external input parameters that drive the model are the fraction of the polar vortex in sunlight and the fraction of the polar vortex below the temperatures necessary for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. Here, we present an update of the Polar SWIFT model introducing several improvements over the original model formulation. In particular, the model is now trained on vortex-averaged reaction rates of the ATLAS Chemistry and Transport Model, which enables a detailed look at individual processes and an independent validation of the different parameterizations contained in the differential equations. The training of the original Polar SWIFT model was based on fitting complete model runs to satellite observations and did not allow for this. A revised formulation of the system of differential equations is developed, which closely fits vortex-averaged reaction rates from ATLAS that represent the main chemical processes influencing ozone. In addition, a parameterization for the HNO3 change by denitrification is included. The rates of change of the concentrations of the chemical species of the Polar SWIFT model are purely chemical rates of change in the new version, whereas in the original Polar SWIFT model, they included a transport effect

Evolution of a Gaussian laser beam in warm collisional magnetoplasma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jafari, M. J.; Jafari Milani, M. R., E-mail: mrj.milani@gmail.com [Plasma Physics Research School, NSTRI, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Niknam, A. R. [Laser and Plasma Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2016-07-15

In this paper, the spatial evolution of an intense circularly polarized Gaussian laser beam propagated through a warm plasma is investigated, taking into account the ponderomotive force, Ohmic heating, external magnetic field, and collisional effects. Using the momentum transfer and energy equations, both modified electron temperature and electron density in plasma are obtained. By introducing the complex dielectric permittivity of warm magnetized plasma and using the complex eikonal function, coupled differential equations for beam width parameter are established and solved numerically. The effects of polarization state of laser and magnetic field on the laser spot size evolution are studied. It is observed that in case of the right-handed polarization, an increase in the value of external magnetic field causes an increase in the strength of the self-focusing, especially in the higher values, and consequently, the self-focusing occurs in shorter distance of propagation. Moreover, the results demonstrate the existence of laser intensity and electron temperature ranges where self-focusing can occur, while the beam diverges outside of these regions; meanwhile, in these intervals, there exists a turning point for each of intensity and temperature in which the self-focusing process has its strongest strength. Finally, it is found that the self-focusing effect can be enhanced by increasing the plasma frequency (plasma density).

Different Stratospheric Polar Vortex States linked to Cold-Spells in North America and Northern Eurasia

Science.gov (United States)

Kretschmer, M.; Cohen, J. L.; Runge, J.; Coumou, D.

2017-12-01

The stratospheric polar vortex in boreal winter can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby surface weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak states of the vortex, e.g. associated with Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs), often precede a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and thus increase the risk of mid-latitude cold-spells especially over Eurasia. Here we show using cluster analysis that next to the well-documented relationship between a zonally symmetric disturbed vortex and a negative NAO, there exists a zonally asymmetric pattern linked to a negative Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in the northeastern US, like for example observed in February 2014. The latter is more synoptic in time-scale but occurs more frequently than SSWs. A causal effect network (CEN) approach gives insights into the underlying physical pathways and time-lags showing that high-pressure around Greenland leads to vertical wave activity over eastern Siberia leading to downward propagating waves over Alaska and high pressure over the North Pacific. Moreover, composites propose that a rather strong mid-stratospheric vortex seems to be favorable for this zonally asymmetric and reflective mechanism. Overall, the mutual relationship between stratospheric circulation and high-latitude blocking in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans is complex and involves mechanisms operating at different time-scales. Our results suggest that the stratospheric influence on winter circulation should not exclusively be analyzed in terms of a downward propagating Northern Annular Mode (NAM) signal and SSWs. In particular when studying the stratospheric impacts on North American temperature it is crucial to also consider the more transient and zonally asymmetric events which might help to improve seasonal winter predictions for this region.

Methane Cycling in a Warming Wetland

Science.gov (United States)

Noyce, G. L.; Megonigal, P.; Rich, R.; Kirwan, M. L.; Herbert, E. R.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon (C) storage, but the future of these systems is uncertain. In June 2016, we initiated an in-situ, active, whole-ecosystem warming experiment in the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland to quantify how warming and elevated CO2 affect the stability of coastal wetland soil C pools and contemporary rates of C sequestration. Transects are located in two plant communities, dominated by C3 sedges or C4 grasses. The experiment has a gradient design with air and soil warming treatments ranging from ambient to +5.1 °C and heated plots consistently maintain their target temperature year-round. In April 2017, an elevated CO2 treatment was crossed with temperature in the C3community. Ongoing measurements include soil elevation, C fluxes, porewater chemistry and redox potential, and above- and below-ground growth and biomass. In both years, warming increased methane (CH4) emissions (measured at 3-4 week intervals) from spring through fall at the C3 site, but had little effect on emissions from the C4 site. Winter (Dec-Mar) emissions showed no treatment effect. Stable isotope analysis of dissolved CH4 and DIC also indicated that warming had differing effects on CH4 pathways in the two vegetation communities. To better understand temperature effects on rates of CH4 production and oxidation, 1 m soil cores were collected from control areas of the marsh in summer 2017 and incubated at temperatures ranging from 4 °C to 35 °C. Warming increased CH4 production and oxidation rates in surface samples and oxidation rates in the rooting zone samples from both sites, but temperature responses in deep (1 m) soil samples were minimal. In the surface and rooting zone samples, production rates were also consistently higher in C3 soils compared to C4 soils, but, contrary to our expectations, the temperature response was stronger in the C4 soils. However, oxidation in C3 rooting zone samples did have a strong temperature response. The

Severe European winters in a secular perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Hoy, Andreas; Hänsel, Stephanie

2017-04-01

Temperature conditions during the winter time are substantially shaped by a strong year-to-year variability. European winters since the late 1980s - compared to previous decades and centuries - were mainly characterised by a high temperature level, including recent record-warm winters. Yet, comparably cold winters and severe cold spells still occur nowadays, like recently observed from 2009 to 2013 and in early 2017. Central England experienced its second coldest December since start of observations more than 350 years ago in 2010, and some of the lowest temperatures ever measured in northern Europe (below -50 °C in Lapland) were recorded in January 1999. Analysing thermal characteristics and spatial distribution of severe (historical) winters - using early instrumental data - helps expanding and consolidating our knowledge of past weather extremes. This contribution presents efforts towards this direction. We focus on a) compiling and assessing a very long-term instrumental, spatially widespread and well-distributed, high-quality meteorological data set to b) investigate very cold winter temperatures in Europe from early measurements until today. In a first step, we analyse the longest available time series of monthly temperature averages within Europe. Our dataset extends from the Nordic countries up to the Mediterranean and from the British Isles up to Russia. We utilise as much as possible homogenised times series in order to ensure reliable results. Homogenised data derive from the NORDHOM (Scandinavia) and HISTALP (greater alpine region) datasets or were obtained from national weather services and universities. Other (not specifically homogenised) data were derived from the ECA&D dataset or national institutions. The employed time series often start already during the 18th century, with Paris & Central England being the longest datasets (from 1659). In a second step, daily temperature averages are involved. Only some of those series are homogenised, but

Relative effects of precipitation variability and warming on tallgrass prairie ecosystem function

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P. A. Fay

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Precipitation and temperature drive many aspects of terrestrial ecosystem function. Climate change scenarios predict increasing precipitation variability and temperature, and long term experiments are required to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of interannual climate variation, increased growing season (intra-annual rainfall variability, and warming. We present results from an experiment applying increased growing season rainfall variability and year round warming in native tallgrass prairie. During ten years of study, total growing season rainfall varied 2-fold, and we found ~50–200% interannual variability in plant growth and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP, leaf carbon assimilation (A_CO2, and soil CO₂ efflux (J_CO2 despite only ~40% variation in mean volumetric soil water content (0–15 cm, Θ₁₅. Interannual variation in soil moisture was thus amplified in most measures of ecosystem response. Differences between years in Θ₁₅ explained the greatest portion (14–52% of the variation in these processes. Experimentally increased intra-annual season rainfall variability doubled the amplitude of intra-annual soil moisture variation and reduced Θ₁₅ by 15%, causing most ecosystem processes to decrease 8–40% in some or all years with increased rainfall variability compared to ambient rainfall timing, suggesting reduced ecosystem rainfall use efficiency. Warming treatments increased soil temperature at 5 cm depth, particularly during spring, fall, and winter. Warming advanced canopy green up in spring, increased winter J_CO2, and reduced summer J_CO2 and forb ANPP, suggesting that the effects of warming differed in cooler versus warmer parts of the year. We conclude that (1 major ecosystem processes in this grassland may be substantially altered by predicted changes in

Moonlight Drives Ocean-Scale Mass Vertical Migration of Zooplankton during the Arctic Winter.

Science.gov (United States)

Last, Kim S; Hobbs, Laura; Berge, Jørgen; Brierley, Andrew S; Cottier, Finlo

2016-01-25

In extreme high-latitude marine environments that are without solar illumination in winter, light-mediated patterns of biological migration have historically been considered non-existent [1]. However, diel vertical migration (DVM) of zooplankton has been shown to occur even during the darkest part of the polar night, when illumination levels are exceptionally low [2, 3]. This paradox is, as yet, unexplained. Here, we present evidence of an unexpected uniform behavior across the entire Arctic, in fjord, shelf, slope and open sea, where vertical migrations of zooplankton are driven by lunar illumination. A shift from solar-day (24-hr period) to lunar-day (24.8-hr period) vertical migration takes place in winter when the moon rises above the horizon. Further, mass sinking of zooplankton from the surface waters and accumulation at a depth of ∼50 m occurs every 29.5 days in winter, coincident with the periods of full moon. Moonlight may enable predation of zooplankton by carnivorous zooplankters, fish, and birds now known to feed during the polar night [4]. Although primary production is almost nil at this time, lunar vertical migration (LVM) may facilitate monthly pulses of carbon remineralization, as they occur continuously in illuminated mesopelagic systems [5], due to community respiration of carnivorous and detritivorous zooplankton. The extent of LVM during the winter suggests that the behavior is highly conserved and adaptive and therefore needs to be considered as "baseline" zooplankton activity in a changing Arctic ocean [6-9]. VIDEO ABSTRACT. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A winter survey of domestic heating among elderly patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, R; Blair, A; King, D

1996-02-01

Elderly people have a greater need for domestic heating given the time they spend at home and the decline in the body thermoregulation that occurs with ageing. The use of domestic heating by 200 mentally competent newly admitted elderly in patients was evaluated by means of a questionnaire survey. Most patients (69%) were aware of the addition of value added tax (VAT) to their fuel bill and 31% said they had reduced the amount of heating they use because of this. A third of patients (29.5%) said they had difficulty keeping warm prior to this admission. The majority of patients said they could not manage to keep warm in the winter without financial hardship. In addition, 29% said they had reduced the amount spent on food in order to pay for fuel bills. This study suggests that cold may contribute to hospital admissions in elderly patients. This should have implications for government spending and taxation policy on domestic heating.

Observations of middle atmospheric H2O and O3 during the 2010 major sudden stratospheric warming by a network of microwave radiometers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Kämpfer

2012-08-01

Full Text Available In this study, we present middle atmospheric water vapor (H2O and ozone (O3 measurements obtained by ground-based microwave radiometers at three European locations in Bern (47° N, Onsala (57° N and Sodankylä (67° N during Northern winter 2009/2010. In January 2010, a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurred in the Northern Hemisphere whose signatures are evident in the ground-based observations of H2O and O3. The observed anomalies in H2O and O3 are mostly explained by the relative location of the polar vortex with respect to the measurement locations. The SSW started on 26 January 2010 and was most pronounced by the end of January. The zonal mean temperature in the middle stratosphere (10 hPa increased by approximately 25 Kelvin within a few days. The stratospheric vortex weakened during the SSW and shifted towards Europe. In the mesosphere, the vortex broke down, which lead to large scale mixing of polar and midlatitudinal air. After the warming, the polar vortex in the stratosphere split into two weaker vortices and in the mesosphere, a new, pole-centered vortex formed with maximum wind speed of 70 m s−1 at approximately 40° N. The shift of the stratospheric vortex towards Europe was observed in Bern as an increase in stratospheric H2O and a decrease in O3. The breakdown of the mesospheric vortex during the SSW was observed at Onsala and Sodankylä as a sudden increase in mesospheric H2O. The following large-scale descent inside the newly formed mesospheric vortex was well captured by the H2O observations in Sodankylä. In order to combine the H2O observations from the three different locations, we applied the trajectory mapping technique on our H2O observations to derive synoptic scale maps of the H2O distribution. Based on our observations and the 3-D wind field, this method allows determining the approximate development of the stratospheric and mesospheric polar vortex and demonstrates the potential of a network of ground

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

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L. Pei

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Over the past decades, Beijing, the capital city of China, has encountered increasingly frequent persistent haze events (PHE. While the increased pollutant emissions are considered as the most important reason, changes in regional atmospheric circulations associated with large-scale climate warming also play a role. In this study, we find a significant positive trend of PHE in Beijing for the winters from 1980 to 2016 based on updated daily observations. This trend is closely related to an increasing frequency of extreme anomalous southerly episodes in North China, a weakened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere and a northward shift of the East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere. These conditions together depict a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM system, which is then found to be associated with an anomalous warm, high-pressure system in the middle–lower troposphere over the northwestern Pacific. A practical EAWM index is defined as the seasonal meridional wind anomaly at 850 hPa in winter over North China. Over the period 1900–2016, this EAWM index is positively correlated with the sea surface temperature anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, which indicates a wavy positive trend, with an enhanced positive phase since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest an observation-based mechanism linking the increase in PHE in Beijing with large-scale climatic warming through changes in the typical regional atmospheric circulation.

Polar bears at risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Norris, S.; Rosentrater, L.; Eid, P.M. [WWF International Arctic Programme, Oslo (Norway)

2002-05-01

Polar bears, the world's largest terrestrial carnivore, spend much of their lives on the arctic sea ice. This is where they hunt and move between feeding, denning, and resting areas. The world population, estimated at 22,000 bears, is made up of 20 relatively distinct populations varying in size from a few hundred to a few thousand animals. About 60 per cent of all polar bears are found in Canada. In general, the status of this species is stable, although there are pronounced differences between populations. Reductions in the extent and thickness of sea ice has lead the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group to describe climate change as one of the major threats facing polar bears today. Though the long-term effects of climate change will vary in different areas of the Arctic, impacts on the condition and reproductive success of polar bears and their prey are likely to be negative. Longer ice-free periods resulting from earlier break-up of sea ice in the spring and later formation in the fall is already impacting polar bears in the southern portions of their range. In Canada's Hudson Bay, for example, bears hunt on the ice through the winter and into early summer, after which the ice melts completely, forcing bears ashore to fast on stored fat until freeze-up in the fall. The time bears have on the ice to hunt and build up their body condition is cut short when the ice melts early. Studies from Hudson Bay show that for every week earlier that ice break-up occurs, bears will come ashore 10 kg lighter and in poorer condition. It is likely that populations of polar bears dividing their time between land and sea will be severely reduced and local extinctions may occur as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and sea ice melts. Expected changes in regional weather patterns will also impact polar bears. Rain in the late winter can cause maternity dens to collapse before females and cubs have departed, thus exposing occupants to the elements and to predators. Such

Centralised electricity production from winter cereals biomass grown under central-northern Spain conditions: Global warming and energy yield assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sastre, C.M.; Maletta, E.; González-Arechavala, Y.; Ciria, P.; Santos, A.M.; Val, A. del; Pérez, P.; Carrasco, J.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We assess the sustainability of electricity production from winter cereals biomass. • Productivity ranks are generated from different genotypes cultivated in real farms. • GHG and energy balances show better performance compared to natural gas electricity. • Cereals yields below 8 odt/ha do not accomplish objective 60% of GHG savings. • Marginal yields and sustainability criteria are discussed suggesting optimization. - Abstract: The goal of this paper is to assess the sustainability of electricity production from winter cereals grown in one of the most important Spanish agricultural areas, Castilla y León Region, situated in central-northern Spain. This study analyses greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and energy balances of electricity production in a 25 MWe power plant that was powered using straw biomass from three annual winter cereals (rye, triticale and oat) grown as dedicated energy crops. The results of these analyses were compared with those of electricity produced from natural gas in Spanish power plants. Assessments were performed using a wide range of scenarios, mainly based on the biomass yield variability obtained in demonstration plots of twelve different winter cereal genotypes. Demonstration plots were established in two different locations (provinces of Soria and León) of the Castilla y León Region during two crop seasons (2009/2010 and 2010/2011) using common management practices and input rates for rain-fed agriculture in these regions. Our results suggest that production of electricity from winter cereals biomass combustion yielded considerable reductions in terms of GHG emissions when compared to electricity from natural gas. Nevertheless, the results show that low biomass yields that are relatively frequent for Spanish farmers on low productivity lands may produce no significant reductions in GHG in comparison with electricity from natural gas. Consequently, the agronomic management of winter cereals should be re

Recent increased warming of the Alaskan marine Arctic due to midlatitude linkages

Science.gov (United States)

Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Ballinger, Thomas J.

2018-01-01

Alaskan Arctic waters have participated in hemispheric-wide Arctic warming over the last two decades at over two times the rate of global warming. During 2008-13, this relative warming occurred only north of the Bering Strait and the atmospheric Arctic front that forms a north-south thermal barrier. This front separates the southeastern Bering Sea temperatures from Arctic air masses. Model projections show that future temperatures in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas continue to warm at a rate greater than the global rate, reaching a change of +4°C by 2040 relative to the 1981-2010 mean. Offshore at 74°N, climate models project the open water duration season to increase from a current average of three months to five months by 2040. These rates are occasionally enhanced by midlatitude connections. Beginning in August 2014, additional Arctic warming was initiated due to increased SST anomalies in the North Pacific and associated shifts to southerly winds over Alaska, especially in winter 2015-16. While global warming and equatorial teleconnections are implicated in North Pacific SSTs, the ending of the 2014-16 North Pacific warm event demonstrates the importance of internal, chaotic atmospheric natural variability on weather conditions in any given year. Impacts from global warming on Alaskan Arctic temperature increases and sea-ice and snow loss, with occasional North Pacific support, are projected to continue to propagate through the marine ecosystem in the foreseeable future. The ecological and societal consequences of such changes show a radical departure from the current Arctic environment.

The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

2014-01-01

A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

Specificity Responses of Grasshoppers in Temperate Grasslands to Diel Asymmetric Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Tingjuan; Hao, Shuguang; Sun, Osbert Jianxin; Kang, Le

2012-01-01

Background Global warming is characterized by not only an increase in the daily mean temperature, but also a diel asymmetric pattern. However, most of the current studies on climate change have only concerned with the mean values of the warming trend. Although many studies have been conducted concerning the responses of insects to climate change, studies that address the issue of diel asymmetric warming under field conditions are not found in the literature. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a field climate manipulative experiment and investigated developmental and demographic responses to diel asymmetric warming in three grasshopper species (an early-season species Dasyhippus barbipes, a mid-season species Oedaleus asiaticus, and a late-season species Chorthippus fallax). It was found that warming generally advanced the development of eggs and nymphs, but had no apparent impacts on the hatching rate of eggs, the emergence rate of nymphs and the survival and fecundity of adults in all the three species. Nighttime warming was more effective in advancing egg development than the daytime warming. The emergence time of adults was differentially advanced by warming in the three species; it was advanced by 5.64 days in C. fallax, 3.55 days in O. asiaticus, and 1.96 days in D. barbipes. This phenological advancement was associated with increases in the effective GDDs accumulation. Conclusions/Significance Results in this study indicate that the responses of the three grasshopper species to warming are influenced by several factors, including species traits, developmental stage, and the thermal sensitivity of the species. Moreover, species with diapausing eggs are less responsive to changes in temperature regimes, suggesting that development of diapausing eggs is a protective mechanism in early-season grasshopper for avoiding the risk of pre-winter hatching. Our results highlight the need to consider the complex relationships between climate change and

Arctic vegetation damage by winter-generated coal mining pollution released upon thawing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elberling, B.; Søndergaard, J.; Jensen, L.A.

2007-01-01

summer period. Here we show that heat generation within an oxidizing, sulfidic, coal-mining waste-rock pile in Svalbard (78° N) is high enough to keep the pile warm (roughly 5 °C throughout the year) despite mean annual air temperatures below -5 °C. Consequently, weathering processes continue year...... the adverse environmental impacts of cold region coal-mining need to pay more attention to winter processes including AMD generation and accumulation of weathering products....

Spatial Analysis of the Effects of the Anomalous Winter of 2014/15 on 157 Ski Resorts Located in Western North America

Science.gov (United States)

Bahbahani, K. M.; Pidwirny, M. J.

2017-12-01

The winter of 2014/2015 was one of the warmest in recent history for many locations in western North America. The cause of this climate irregularity was the development of extremely warm ocean surface waters (The Blob) over much of the eastern North Pacific Ocean. During this winter season, many ski resorts in western Canada and the United States either did not open or were forced to close their ski season early. Here, we examine climate data from 157 ski resorts to develop a picture of where the effected locations were in western North America. Using the climate database software ClimateBC and ClimateNA, high quality downscaled historical data was generated for the winter season (December, January, and February) for the variables mean temperature, snowfall, and rainfall. Values for winter of 2014/15 were statistically compared to the 30-year normal period from 1981-2010. Z-scores were calculated for 2014/15 relative to the selected 30-year normal period. These Z-score values were then mapped using ArcGIS. From the mean winter temperature map, it is apparent that abnormally warm temperatures influenced many ski resorts in California, Nevada, western Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah, southern Idaho, and parts of southern British Columbia. The winter snowfall map shows anomalous below normal conditions only at two resorts in south-central British Columbia and a single above normal situation at one site in central Colorado. The winter rainfall map displays that many ski resorts in New Mexico, Arizona, southern Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, western Washington, and southwestern British Columbia experienced exceptional above normal winter season rainfalls. It is highly likely that the next Blob will be forecasted many months in advance of its occurrence. The results of this study have identified which ski resorts could be climatically influenced by such an event. This information may help reduce potential financial losses to ski resorts and their associated

Time-lapse imagery of Adélie penguins reveals differential winter strategies and breeding site occupation.

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Black, Caitlin; Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; Lunn, Daniel; Hart, Tom

2018-01-01

Polar seabirds adopt different over-wintering strategies to survive and build condition during the critical winter period. Penguin species either reside at the colony during the winter months or migrate long distances. Tracking studies and survey methods have revealed differences in winter migration routes among penguin species and colonies, dependent on both biotic and abiotic factors present. However, scan sampling methods are rarely used to reveal non-breeding behaviors during winter and little is known about presence at the colony site over this period. Here we show that Adélie penguins on the Yalour Islands in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) are present year-round at the colony and undergo a mid-winter peak in abundance during winter. We found a negative relationship between daylight hours and penguin abundance when either open water or compact ice conditions were present, suggesting that penguins return to the breeding colony when visibility is lowest for at-sea foraging and when either extreme low or high levels of sea ice exist offshore. In contrast, Adélie penguins breeding in East Antarctica were not observed at the colonies during winter, suggesting that Adélie penguins undergo differential winter strategies in the marginal ice zone on the WAP compared to those in East Antarctica. These results demonstrate that cameras can successfully monitor wildlife year-round in areas that are largely inaccessible during winter.

Linkages between Icelandic Low position and SE Greenland winter precipitation

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Berdahl, M.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Hammann, A. C.; Mioduszewski, J.; Hameed, S.; Tedesco, M.; Stroeve, J. C.; Mote, T. L.

2015-12-01

Greenland's largest flux of precipitation occurs in its Southeast (SE) region. An understanding of the mechanisms controlling precipitation in this region is lacking despite its disproportionate importance in the mass balance of Greenland and the consequent contributions to sea level rise. We use weather station data from the Danish Meteorological Institute to reveal the governing influences on precipitation in SE Greenland during the winter and fall. We find that precipitation in the fall is significantly correlated to the longitude of the Icelandic Low and the NAO. Winter precipitation is correlated with the strength and longitude of the Icelandic Low, as well as the NAO. We show that in years of extreme high precipitation, onshore winds dominate, thereby advecting more moisture inland. In low precipitation years, winds are more westerly, approaching the stations from land. Understanding the controls of SE Greenland precipitation will help us predict how future precipitation in this key region may change in a warming climate.

The Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

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Palm, Stephen P.; Strey, Sara T.; Spinhirne, James; Markus, Thorsten

2010-01-01

Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of five years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anti-correlation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7 and 10 percent, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5 to 7 percent. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Since longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

Variability of Diurnal Temperature Range During Winter Over Western Himalaya: Range- and Altitude-Wise Study

Science.gov (United States)

Shekhar, M. S.; Devi, Usha; Dash, S. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Amreek

2018-04-01

The current trends in diurnal temperature range, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and sun shine hours over different ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya during winter have been studied. Analysis of 25 years of data shows an increasing trend in diurnal temperature range over all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya during winter, thereby confirming regional warming of the region due to present climate change and global warming. Statistical studies show significant increasing trend in maximum temperature over all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya. Minimum temperature shows significant decreasing trend over Pir Panjal and Shamshawari range and significant increasing trend over higher altitude of Western Himalaya. Similarly, sunshine hours show significant decreasing trend over Karakoram range. There exists strong positive correlation between diurnal temperature range and maximum temperature for all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya. Strong negative correlation exists between diurnal temperature range and minimum temperature over Shamshawari and Great Himalaya range and lower altitude of Western Himalaya. Sunshine hours show strong positive correlation with diurnal temperature range over Pir Panjal and Great Himalaya range and lower and higher altitudes.

Assessing the ability to derive rates of polar middle-atmospheric descent using trace gas measurements from remote sensors

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Ryan, Niall J.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Hoffmann, Christoph G.; Palm, Mathias; Raffalski, Uwe; Notholt, Justus

2018-02-01

We investigate the reliability of using trace gas measurements from remote sensing instruments to infer polar atmospheric descent rates during winter within 46-86 km altitude. Using output from the Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) between 2008 and 2014, tendencies of carbon monoxide (CO) volume mixing ratios (VMRs) are used to assess a common assumption of dominant vertical advection of tracers during polar winter. The results show that dynamical processes other than vertical advection are not negligible, meaning that the transport rates derived from trace gas measurements do not represent the mean descent of the atmosphere. The relative importance of vertical advection is lessened, and exceeded by other processes, during periods directly before and after a sudden stratospheric warming, mainly due to an increase in eddy transport. It was also found that CO chemistry cannot be ignored in the mesosphere due to the night-time layer of OH at approximately 80 km altitude. CO VMR profiles from the Kiruna Microwave Radiometer and the Microwave Limb Sounder were compared to SD-WACCM output, and show good agreement on daily and seasonal timescales. SD-WACCM CO profiles are combined with the CO tendencies to estimate errors involved in calculating the mean descent of the atmosphere from remote sensing measurements. The results indicate errors on the same scale as the calculated descent rates, and that the method is prone to a misinterpretation of the direction of air motion. The true rate of atmospheric descent is seen to be masked by processes, other than vertical advection, that affect CO. We suggest an alternative definition of the rate calculated using remote sensing measurements: not as the mean descent of the atmosphere, but as an effective rate of vertical transport for the trace gas under observation.

On the cryogenic removal of NOy from the Antarctic polar stratosphere

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S. Smyshlyaev

2003-06-01

Full Text Available We review current knowledge about the annual cycle of transport of nitrogen oxides to, and removal from, the polar stratosphere, with particular attention to Antarctica where the annual winter denitrifi cation process is both regular in occurrence and severe in effect. Evidence for a large downward fl ux of NOy from the mesosphere to the stratosphere, fi rst seen briefl y in the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS data from the Arctic winter of 1978-1979, has been found during the 1990s in both satellite and ground-based observations, though this still seems to be omitted from many atmospheric models. When incorporated in the Stony Brook- St. Petersburg two dimensional (2D transport and chemistry model, more realistic treatment of the NOy fl ux, along with sulfate transport from the mesosphere, sulfate aerosol formation where temperature is favorable, and the inclusion of a simple ion-cluster reaction, leads to good agreement with observed HNO3 formation in the mid-winter middle to upper stratosphere. To further emphasize the importance of large fl uxes of thermospheric and mesospheric NOy into the polar stratosphere, we have used observations, supplemented with model calculations, to defi ne new altitude dependent correlation curves between N2O and NOy. These are more suitable than those previously used in the literature to represent conditions within the Antarctic vortex region prior to and during denitrifi cation by Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC particles. Our NOy -N2O curves lead to a 40% increase in the average amount of NOy removed during the Antarctic winter with respect to estimates calculated using NOy-N2O curves from the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS/ATLAS-3 data set.

Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

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Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah

2017-12-01

The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity

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Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

Focusing on this recent extreme wet year over California, this study investigates the warming impacts on the snowpack and the flood severity over the Sierra Nevada (SN), where the majority of the precipitation occurs during the winter season and early spring. One of our goals is to quantify anthropogenic warming impacts on the snow water equivalent (SWE) including recent historical warming and prescribed future projected warming scenarios; This work also explores to what extent flooding risk has increased under those warming cases. With a good representation of the historical precipitation and snowpack over the Sierra Nevada from the historical reference run at 9km (using WRF), the results from the offline Noah-MP simulations with perturbed near-surface temperatures reveal magnificent impacts of warming to the loss of the average snowpack. The reduction of the SWE under warming mainly results from the decreased rain-to-snow conversion with a weaker effect from increased snowmelt. Compared to the natural case, the past industrial warming decreased the maximum SWE by about one-fifth averaged over the study area. Future continuing warming can result in around one-third reduction of current maximum SWE under RCP4.5 emissions scenario, and the loss can reach to two-thirds under RCP8.5 as a "business-as-usual" condition. The impact of past warming is particularly outstanding over the North SN region where precipitation dominates and over the middle elevation regions where the snow mainly distributes. In the future, the warming impact on SWE progresses to higher regions, and so to the south and east. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the projected mid-elevation snowpack almost disappears by April 1st with even high-elevation snow reduced by about half. Along with the loss of the snowpack, as the temperature warms, floods can also intensify with increased early season runoff especially under heavy-rainy days caused by the weakened rain-to-snow processes and

Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

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McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2010-01-01

A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease.

Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

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Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature

Passive Optimization Design Based on Particle Swarm Optimization in Rural Buildings of the Hot Summer and Warm Winter Zone of China

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Shilei Lu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The development of green building is an important way to solve the environmental problems of China’s construction industry. Energy conservation and energy utilization are important for the green building evaluation criteria (GBEC. The objective of this study is to evaluate the quantitative relationship between building shape parameter, envelope parameters, shading system, courtyard and the energy consumption (EC as well as the impact on indoor thermal comfort of rural residential buildings in the hot summer and warm winter zone (HWWZ. Taking Quanzhou (Fujian Province of China as an example, based on the field investigation, EnergyPlus is used to build the building performance model. In addition, the classical particle swarm optimization algorithm in GenOpt software is used to optimize the various factors affecting the EC. Single-objective optimization has provided guidance to the multi-dimensional optimization and regression analysis is used to find the effects of a single input variable on an output variable. Results shows that the energy saving rate of an optimized rural residence is about 26–30% corresponding to the existing rural residence. Moreover, the payback period is about 20 years. A simple case study is used to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed optimization analysis. The optimization can be used to guide the design of new rural construction in the area and the energy saving transformation of the existing rural houses, which can help to achieve the purpose of energy saving and comfort.

Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding.

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Fu, Yongshuo H; Zhao, Hongfang; Piao, Shilong; Peaucelle, Marc; Peng, Shushi; Zhou, Guiyun; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Menzel, Annette; Peñuelas, Josep; Song, Yang; Vitasse, Yann; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Janssens, Ivan A

2015-10-01

Earlier spring leaf unfolding is a frequently observed response of plants to climate warming. Many deciduous tree species require chilling for dormancy release, and warming-related reductions in chilling may counteract the advance of leaf unfolding in response to warming. Empirical evidence for this, however, is limited to saplings or twigs in climate-controlled chambers. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, here we show that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance of leaf unfolding per °C warming) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days °C(-1) during 1980-1994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days °C(-1) during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also have a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining ST, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce ST and therefore result in a slowdown in the advance of tree spring phenology.

Polar oceans in a changing climate.

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Barnes, David K A; Tarling, Geraint A

2017-06-05

Most of Earth's surface is blue or white, but how much of each would depend on the time of observation. Our planet has been through phases of snowball (all frozen), greenhouse (all liquid seas) and icehouse (frozen and liquid). Even during current icehouse conditions, the extent of ice versus water has changed considerably between ice ages and interglacial periods. Water has been vital for life on Earth and has driven and been influenced by transitions between greenhouse and icehouse. However, neither the possession of water nor having liquid and frozen seas are unique to Earth (Figure 1). Frozen water oceans on the moons Enceladus and Europa (and possibly others) and the liquid and frozen hydrocarbon oceans on Titan probably represent the most likely areas to find extraterrestrial life. We know very little about life in Earth's polar oceans, yet they are the engine of the thermohaline 'conveyor-belt', driving global circulation of heat, oxygen, carbon and nutrients as well as setting sea level through change in ice-mass balance. In regions of polar seas, where surface water is particularly cold and dense, it sinks to generate a tropic-ward flow on the ocean floor of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Cold water holds more gas, so this sinking water exports O 2 and nutrients, thereby supporting life in the deep sea, as well as soaking up CO 2 from the atmosphere. Water from mid-depths at lower latitudes flows in to replace the sinking polar surface water. This brings heat. The poles are cold because they receive the least energy from the sun, and this extreme light climate varies on many different time scales. To us, the current warm, interglacial conditions seem normal, yet such phases have represented only ∼10% of Homo sapiens' existence. Variations in Earth's orbit (so called 'Milankovitch cycles') have driven cyclical alternation of glaciations (ice ages) and warmer interglacials. Despite this, Earth's polar regions have been our planet's most

Controls on winter ecosystem respiration in temperate and boreal ecosystems

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T. Wang

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Winter CO₂ fluxes represent an important component of the annual carbon budget in northern ecosystems. Understanding winter respiration processes and their responses to climate change is also central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks in the future. However, the factors influencing the spatial and temporal patterns of winter ecosystem respiration (R_eco of northern ecosystems are poorly understood. For this reason, we analyzed eddy covariance flux data from 57 ecosystem sites ranging from ~35° N to ~70° N. Deciduous forests were characterized by the highest winter R_eco rates (0.90 ± 0.39 g C m⁻² d⁻¹, when winter is defined as the period during which daily air temperature remains below 0 °C. By contrast, arctic wetlands had the lowest winter R_eco rates (0.02 ± 0.02 g C m⁻² d⁻¹. Mixed forests, evergreen needle-leaved forests, grasslands, croplands and boreal wetlands were characterized by intermediate winter R_eco rates (g C m⁻² d⁻¹ of 0.70(±0.33, 0.60(±0.38, 0.62(±0.43, 0.49(±0.22 and 0.27(±0.08, respectively. Our cross site analysis showed that winter air (T_air and soil (T_soil temperature played a dominating role in determining the spatial patterns of winter R_eco in both forest and managed ecosystems (grasslands and croplands. Besides temperature, the seasonal amplitude of the leaf area index (LAI, inferred from satellite observation, or growing season gross primary productivity, which we use here as a proxy for the amount of recent carbon available for R_eco in the subsequent winter, played a marginal role in winter CO₂ emissions from forest ecosystems. We found that winter R_eco sensitivity to temperature variation across space (

Time-lapse imagery of Adélie penguins reveals differential winter strategies and breeding site occupation

Science.gov (United States)

Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; Lunn, Daniel

2018-01-01

Polar seabirds adopt different over-wintering strategies to survive and build condition during the critical winter period. Penguin species either reside at the colony during the winter months or migrate long distances. Tracking studies and survey methods have revealed differences in winter migration routes among penguin species and colonies, dependent on both biotic and abiotic factors present. However, scan sampling methods are rarely used to reveal non-breeding behaviors during winter and little is known about presence at the colony site over this period. Here we show that Adélie penguins on the Yalour Islands in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) are present year-round at the colony and undergo a mid-winter peak in abundance during winter. We found a negative relationship between daylight hours and penguin abundance when either open water or compact ice conditions were present, suggesting that penguins return to the breeding colony when visibility is lowest for at-sea foraging and when either extreme low or high levels of sea ice exist offshore. In contrast, Adélie penguins breeding in East Antarctica were not observed at the colonies during winter, suggesting that Adélie penguins undergo differential winter strategies in the marginal ice zone on the WAP compared to those in East Antarctica. These results demonstrate that cameras can successfully monitor wildlife year-round in areas that are largely inaccessible during winter. PMID:29561876

Winter Arctic sea ice growth: current variability and projections for the coming decades

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Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Webster, M.; Holland, M. M.; Bailey, D. A.; Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice increases in both extent and thickness during the cold winter months ( October to May). Winter sea ice growth is an important factor controlling ocean ventilation and winter water/deep water formation, as well as determining the state and vulnerability of the sea ice pack before the melt season begins. Key questions for the Arctic community thus include: (i) what is the current magnitude and variability of winter Arctic sea ice growth and (ii) how might this change in a warming Arctic climate? To address (i), our current best guess of pan-Arctic sea ice thickness, and thus volume, comes from satellite altimetry observations, e.g. from ESA's CryoSat-2 satellite. A significant source of uncertainty in these data come from poor knowledge of the overlying snow depth. Here we present new estimates of winter sea ice thickness from CryoSat-2 using snow depths from a simple snow model forced by reanalyses and satellite-derived ice drift estimates, combined with snow depth estimates from NASA's Operation IceBridge. To address (ii), we use data from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble Project, to explore sea ice volume and growth variability, and how this variability might change over the coming decades. We compare and contrast the model simulations to observations and the PIOMAS ice-ocean model (over recent years/decades). The combination of model and observational analysis provide novel insight into Arctic sea ice volume variability.

A closer look at the relationships between meridional mass circulation pulses in the stratosphere and cold air outbreak patterns in northern hemispheric winter

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Yu, Yueyue; Cai, Ming; Ren, Rongcai; Rao, Jian

2018-01-01

The relationship between continental-scale cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in the mid-latitudes and pulse signals in the stratospheric mass circulation in Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) is investigated using ERA-Interim data for the 32 winters from 1979 to 2011. Pulse signals in the stratospheric mass circulation include "PULSE_TOT", "PULSE_W1", and "PULSE_W2" events, defined as a period of stronger meridional mass transport into the polar stratosphere by total flow, wavenumber-1, and wavenumber-2, respectively. Each type of PULSE event occurs on average 4-6 times per winter. A robust relationship is found between two dominant patterns of winter CAOs and PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. Cold temperature anomalies tend to occur over Eurasia with the other continent anomalously warm during the 2 weeks before the peak dates of PULSE_W1 events, while the opposite temperature anomaly pattern can be found after the peak dates; and during the 1-2 weeks centered on the peak dates of PULSE_W2 events, a higher probability of occurrence of CAOs is found over both continents. These relationships become more robust for PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events of larger peak intensity. PULSE_TOT events are classified into five types, which have a distinct coupling relationship with PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. The specific pattern of CAOs associated with each type of PULSE_TOT event is found to be a combination of the CAO patterns associated with PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. The percentage of PULSE_TOT events belonging to the types that are dominated by PULSE_W2 events increases with the peak intensity of PULSE_TOT events. Accordingly, the related CAO pattern is close to that associated with PULSE_W1 for PULSE_TOT events with small-to-medium intensity, but tends to resemble that associated with PULSE_W2 events as the peak intensity of PULSE_TOT events increases.

Testing our understanding of Arctic denitrification using MIPAS-E satellite measurements in winter 2002/2003

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S. Davies

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Observations of gas-phase HNO3 and N2O in the polar stratosphere from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding aboard the ENVISAT satellite (MIPAS-E were made during the cold Arctic winter of 2002/2003. Vortex temperatures were unusually low in early winter and remained favourable for polar stratospheric cloud formation and denitrification until mid-January. MIPAS-E observations provide the first dataset with sufficient coverage of the polar vortex in mid-winter which enables a reasonable estimate of the timing of onset and spatial distribution of denitrification of the Arctic lower stratosphere to be performed. We use the observations from MIPAS-E to test the evolution of denitrification in the DLAPSE (Denitrification by Lagrangian Particle Sedimentation microphysical denitrification model coupled to the SLIMCAT chemical transport model. In addition, the predicted denitrification from a simple equilibrium nitric acid trihydrate-based scheme is also compared with MIPAS-E. Modelled denitrification is compared with in-vortex NOy and N2O observations from the balloon-borne MarkIV interferometer in mid-December. Denitrification was clearly observed by MIPAS-E in mid-December 2002 and reached 80% in the core of the vortex by early January 2003. The DLAPSE model is broadly able to capture both the timing of onset and the spatial distribution of the observed denitrification. A simple thermodynamic equilibrium scheme is able to reproduce the observed denitrification in the core of the vortex but overestimates denitrification closer to the vortex edge. This study also suggests that the onset of denitrification in simple thermodynamic schemes may be earlier than in the MIPAS-E observations.

Mie lidar and radiosonde observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

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Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.

2011-03-01

During a major sudden stratospheric warming event (21-27 January 2009), Mie-lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show persistent occurrence of cirrus clouds. Outgoing long-wave radiation averaged for 70°E-90°E, decreases to a low value (170 W/m2) on 27 January 2009 over equator indicating deep convection. The zonal mean ERA-Interim data reveal large northward and upward circulation over equatorial upper troposphere. The latitude-longitude map of ERA-Interim zonal mean potential vorticity (PV) indicates two tongues of high PV emanating from polar latitudes and extending further down to equator. Radiosonde observations at Gadanki show the presence of ∼40% relative humidity at 11-13 km and lower tropopause temperature. It is inferred that the tropical circulation change due to PV intrusion leads to deep convection, which along with high humidity and low tropopause temperature leading to the formation of persistent cirrus clouds, the occurrence frequency of which is normally less during winter season over Gadanki.

Summer warming and changes in snow depth is reflected in the growth rings of Alaskan tundra shrubs (Toolik Lake)

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Buchwal, A.; Welker, J. M.

2016-12-01

Arctic change is being manifested by shifts in the vegetation composition and abundance throughout many regions of the Arctic. These changes are primarily reflected by increases in shrub growth and density, but the extent to which shrub growth is expressed in greater shrub ring width and the degree to which natural and experimental warming correspond and or whether the secondary effect of deeper snow in winter acts to alter shrub ring growh and or shrub biomass is yet to be determined for Arctic Alaska. In order to explore growth response of arctic shrubs to on-going and predicted temperature and snow depth increase we investigated shrubs' annual growth rings using dendrochronological methods applied to plants growing under control and experimental treatments in Toolik Lake, Northern Alaska. Specifically we evaluated the effects of a 20-year experimental warming (due to open top chambers, OTC's) and snow depth increases on the growth rings pattern of two common shrub species of Northern Alaska, i.e. Betula nana and Salix pulchra. By applying a serial sectioning method patterns of annual growth were investigated across the entire plant including below-ground parts. Moreover this procedure allowed for a complete cross-dating and a detection of irregular radial growth, including common missing and partially missing rings. We found that the natural warming in Alaska occurring over the past 20 years is stimulating shrub ring growth, more so for Betula than for Salix. Experimental warming (simulating conditions in approximately 2030) stimulated the secondary growth ratio; however the allocation pattern between below-ground and above-ground is quite variable between individual shrubs. In addition, annual growth rings analyses were supplemented by quantitative wood anatomy properties, such as vessel size and density. Our findings indicate that there can be differential growth ring responses of deciduous shrubs to natural climate warming, that growth ring increases reflect

Atmospheric Circulation Response to Episodic Arctic Warming in an Idealized Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hell, M. C.; Schneider, T.; Li, C.

2017-12-01

Recent Arctic sea ice loss has drawn attention as a potential driver of fall/winter circulation changes. Past work has shown that sea ice loss can be related to a stratospheric polar vortex breakdown, with the result of long-delayed surface weather phenomena in late winter/early spring. In this study, we separate the atmospheric dynamic components and mean timescales to episodic polar surface heat fluxes using large ensembles of an idealized GCM in absence of continents and seasons. The atmospheric ensemble-mean response is linear related to the surface forcing strength and insensitive to the forcing symmetry. Analyses in the Transformed Eulerian Mean show that the responses can be separated into 1) an in-phase thermal adjustment, and 2) a lagged, eddy-driven component invoking long-standing anomalies in the lower stratosphere. The mid-latitude adjustment to the episodically reduced baroclinity leads to stratosphere-directed eddy-heat fluxes, establishing a stratospheric temperature anomaly responsible for vortex break down. In addition, we discuss the dependence on the background state via correlation in ensemble member space. Thus, we range the role of arctic perturbations in the transient large-scale circulation.

Winter distribution of euphausiids ( Euphausiacea) in the Barents Sea (2000-2005)

Science.gov (United States)

Zhukova, Natalia G.; Nesterova, Valentina N.; Prokopchuk, Irina P.; Rudneva, Galina B.

2009-10-01

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Barents Sea euphausiids populations in the warm period (2000-2005) based on the study of their structure dynamics and distribution under the influence of abiotic and biotic factors. For estimation of their aggregations in the bottom layer, the traditional method was used with the help of the modified egg net (0.2 m 2 opening area, 564 μm mesh size). The net is used for collecting euphausiids in the autumn-winter period when their activity is reduced, which results in high-catch efficiency. The findings confirmed the major formation patterns of the euphausiids species composition associated with climate change in the Arctic basin. As before, in the warm years, one can see a clear-cut differentiation of space distribution of the dominant euphausiids Thysanoessa genus with localization of the more thermophilic Thysanoessa inermis in the north-west Barents Sea and Thysanoessa raschii in the east. The major euphausiids aggregations are formed of these species. In 2004, the first data of euphausiids distribution in the northern Barents Sea (77-79°N) were obtained, and demonstrated extremely high concentrations of T. inermis in this area, with the biomass as high as 1.7-2.4 g m -2 in terms of dry weight. These data have improved our knowledge of the distribution and euphausiids abundance during periods of elevated sea-water temperatures in the Barents Sea. The oceanic Atlantic species were found to increase in abundance due to elevated advection to the Barents Sea during the study period. Thus, after nearly a 30-year-long absence of the moderate subtropical Nematoscelis megalops in the Barents Sea, they were found again in 2003-2005. However in comparison with 1960, the north-east border of its distribution considerably shifted to 73°50'N 50°22'E. The portion of Meganyctiphanes norvegica also varied considerably—from 10% to 20% of the total euphausiids population in the warm 1950s-1960s almost to complete

Arctic amplification: does it impact the polar jet stream?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentin P. Meleshko

2016-10-01

Full Text Available It has been hypothesised that the Arctic amplification of temperature changes causes a decrease in the northward temperature gradient in the troposphere, thereby enhancing the oscillation of planetary waves leading to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. To test this hypothesis, we study the response of the atmosphere to Arctic amplification for a projected summer sea-ice-free period using an atmospheric model with prescribed surface boundary conditions from a state-of-the-art Earth system model. Besides a standard global warming simulation, we also conducted a sensitivity experiment with sea ice and sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic. We show that when global climate warms, enhancement of the northward heat transport provides the major contribution to decrease the northward temperature gradient in the polar troposphere in cold seasons, causing more oscillation of the planetary waves. However, while Arctic amplification significantly enhances near-surface air temperature in the polar region, it is not large enough to invoke an increased oscillation of the planetary waves.

A Thermally Insulating Textile Inspired by Polar Bear Hair.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Ying; Gong, Huaxin; Wang, Yujie; Li, Dewen; Bai, Hao

2018-04-01

Animals living in the extremely cold environment, such as polar bears, have shown amazing capability to keep warm, benefiting from their hollow hairs. Mimicking such a strategy in synthetic fibers would stimulate smart textiles for efficient personal thermal management, which plays an important role in preventing heat loss and improving efficiency in house warming energy consumption. Here, a "freeze-spinning" technique is used to realize continuous and large-scale fabrication of fibers with aligned porous structure, mimicking polar bear hairs, which is difficult to achieve by other methods. A textile woven with such biomimetic fibers shows an excellent thermal insulation property as well as good breathability and wearability. In addition to passively insulating heat loss, the textile can also function as a wearable heater, when doped with electroheating materials such as carbon nanotubes, to induce fast thermal response and uniform electroheating while maintaining its soft and porous nature for comfortable wearing. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere during polar mesosphere winter echoes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F.-J. Lübken

2006-01-01

Full Text Available In January 2005, a total of 18 rockets were launched from the Andøya Rocket Range in Northern Norway (69° N into strong VHF radar echoes called 'Polar Mesosphere Winter Echoes' (PMWE. The echoes were observed in the lower and middle mesosphere during large solar proton fluxes. In general, PMWE occur much more seldom compared to their summer counterparts PMSE (typical occurrence rates at 69° N are 1–3% vs. 80%, respectively. Our in-situ measurements by falling sphere, chaff, and instrumented payloads provide detailed information about the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere and therefore allow an unprecedented study of the background atmosphere during PMWE. There are a number of independent observations indicating that neutral air turbulence has caused PMWE. Ion density fluctuations show a turbulence spectrum within PMWE and no fluctuations outside. Temperature lapse rates close to the adiabatic gradient are observed in the vicinity of PMWE indicating persistent turbulent mixing. The spectral broadening of radar echoes is consistent with turbulent velocity fluctuations. Turbulence also explains the mean occurrence height of PMWE (~68–75 km: viscosity increases rapidly with altitude and destroys any small scale fluctuations in the upper mesosphere, whereas electron densities are usually too low in the lower mesosphere to cause significant backscatter. The seasonal variation of echoes in the lower mesosphere is in agreement with a turbulence climatology derived from earlier sounding rocket flights. We have performed model calculations to study the radar backscatter from plasma fluctuations caused by neutral air turbulence. We find that volume reflectivities observed during PMWE are in quantitative agreement with theory. Apart from turbulence the most crucial requirement for PMWE is a sufficiently large number of electrons, for example produced by solar proton events. We have studied the sensitivity of the radar echo strength on

Warming effects on the urban hydrology in cold climate regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Järvi, L; Grimmond, C S B; McFadden, J P; Christen, A; Strachan, I B; Taka, M; Warsta, L; Heimann, M

2017-07-19

While approximately 338 million people in the Northern hemisphere live in regions that are regularly snow covered in winter, there is little hydro-climatologic knowledge in the cities impacted by snow. Using observations and modelling we have evaluated the energy and water exchanges of four cities that are exposed to wintertime snow. We show that the presence of snow critically changes the impact that city design has on the local-scale hydrology and climate. After snow melt, the cities return to being strongly controlled by the proportion of built and vegetated surfaces. However in winter, the presence of snow masks the influence of the built and vegetated fractions. We show how inter-year variability of wintertime temperature can modify this effect of snow. With increasing temperatures, these cities could be pushed towards very different partitioning between runoff and evapotranspiration. We derive the dependency of wintertime runoff on this warming effect in combination with the effect of urban densification.

The Impact of Cloud Properties on Young Sea Ice during Three Winter Storms at N-ICE2015

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, S. Y.; Walden, V. P.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.

2017-12-01

The impact of clouds on sea ice varies significantly as cloud properties change. Instruments deployed during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice field campaign (N-ICE2015) are used to study how differing cloud properties influence the cloud radiative forcing at the sea ice surface. N-ICE2015 was the first campaign in the Arctic winter since SHEBA (1997/1998) to study the surface energy budget of sea ice and the associated effects of cloud properties. Cloud characteristics, surface radiative and turbulent fluxes, and meteorological properties were measured throughout the field campaign. Here we explore how cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties affect young, thin sea ice during three winter storms from 31 January to 15 February 2015. This time period is of interest due to the varying surface and atmospheric conditions, which showcase the variety of conditions the newly-formed sea ice can experience during the winter. This period was characterized by large variations in the ice surface and near-surface air temperatures, with highs near 0°C when warm, moist air was advected into the area and lows reaching -40°C during clear, calm periods between storms. The advection of warm, moist air into the area influenced the cloud properties and enhanced the downwelling longwave flux. For most of the period, downwelling longwave flux correlates closely with the air temperature. However, at the end of the first storm, a drop in downwelling longwave flux of about 50 Wm-2 was observed, independent of any change in surface or air temperature or cloud fraction, indicating a change in cloud properties. Lidar data show an increase in cloud height during this period and a potential shift in cloud phase from ice to mixed-phase. This study will describe the cloud properties during the three winter storms and discuss their impacts on surface energy budget.

Surface wind energy trends near Taiwan in winter since 1871

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010. The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.

Ecosystem CO2 production during winter in a Swedish subarctic region: the relative importance of climate and vegetation type

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grogan, Paul; Jonasson, Sven Evert

2006-01-01

General circulation models consistently predict that regional warming will be most rapid in the Arctic, that this warming will be predominantly in the winter season, and that it will often be accompanied by increasing snowfall. Paradoxically, despite the strong cold season emphasis in these predi...... will respond to climate change during winter because they indicate a threshold (~1 m) above which there would be little effect of increased snow accumulation on wintertime biogeochemical cycling....... in these predictions, we know relatively little about the plot and landscape-level controls on tundra biogeochemical cycling in wintertime as compared to summertime. We investigated the relative influence of vegetation type and climate on CO2 production rates and total wintertime CO2 release in the Scandinavian...... subarctic. Ecosystem respiration rates and a wide range of associated environmental and substrate pool size variables were measured in the two most common vegetation types of the region (birch understorey and heath tundra) at four paired sites along a 50 km transect through a strong snow depth gradient...

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David D Gustine

Full Text Available Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs, and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21% than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%. Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Gustine, David D; Brinkman, Todd J; Lindgren, Michael A; Schmidt, Jennifer I; Rupp, T Scott; Adams, Layne G

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Coherent Multidecadal Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability in the North Atlantic: Blocking Corresponds with Warm Subpolar Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Hakkinen, Sirpa M.; Rhines, P. B.; Worthen, D. L.

2012-01-01

Winters with frequent atmospheric blocking, in a band of latitudes from Greenland to Western Europe, are found to persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean. This is evident in atmospheric reanalysis data, both modern and for the full 20th century. Blocking is approximately in phase with Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV). Wintertime atmospheric blocking involves a highly distorted jetstream, isolating large regions of air from the westerly circulation. It influences the ocean through windstress-curl and associated air/sea heat flux. While blocking is a relatively high-frequency phenomenon, it is strongly modulated over decadal timescales. The blocked regime (weaker ocean gyres, weaker air-sea heat flux, paradoxically increased transport of warm subtropical waters poleward) contributes to the warm phase of AMV. Atmospheric blocking better describes the early 20thC warming and 1996-2010 warm period than does the NAO index. It has roots in the hemispheric circulation and jet stream dynamics. Subpolar Atlantic variability covaries with distant AMOC fields: both these connections may express the global influence of the subpolar North Atlantic ocean on the global climate system.

Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

Science.gov (United States)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

2018-03-01

The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

High magnetic field uniformity superconducting magnet for a movable polarized target

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anishchenko, N.G.; Bartenev, V.D.; Blinov, N.A.

1998-01-01

The superconducting polarizing magnet was constructed for movable polarized target (MPT) with working volume 200 mm long and 30 mm in diameter. The magnet provides a polarizing magnetic field up to 6 T with the uniformity of 4.5 x 10 -4 in the working volume of the target. The magnet windings are made of a NbTi wire, impregnated with the epoxy resin and placed in the horizontal cryostat with 'warm' aperture diameter of 96 mm. The design and technology of the magnet winding are described. Results of the magnetic field map measurements using a NMR-magnetometer are given. The MPT set-up is installed in the beam line of polarized neutrons produced by break-up of polarized deuterons extracted from the Synchrophasotron of the Laboratory of High Energies (LHE), JINR, Dubna

A Possible Link Between Winter Arctic Sea Ice Decline and a Collapse of the Beaufort High?

Science.gov (United States)

Petty, Alek A.

2018-03-01

A new study by Moore et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076446) highlights a collapse of the anticyclonic "Beaufort High" atmospheric circulation over the western Arctic Ocean in the winter of 2017 and an associated reversal of the sea ice drift through the southern Beaufort Sea (eastward instead of the predominantly westward circulation). The authors linked this to the loss of sea ice in the Barents Sea, anomalous warming over the region, and the intrusion of low-pressure cyclones along the eastern Arctic. In this commentary we discuss the significance of this observation, the challenges associated with understanding these possible linkages, and some of the alternative hypotheses surrounding the impacts of winter Arctic sea ice loss.

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

An energy balance model exploration of the impacts of interactions between surface albedo, cloud cover and water vapor on polar amplification

Science.gov (United States)

Södergren, A. Helena; McDonald, Adrian J.; Bodeker, Gregory E.

2017-11-01

We examine the effects of non-linear interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and cloud cover (referred to as climate variables) on amplified warming of the polar regions, using a new energy balance model. Our simulations show that the sum of the contributions to surface temperature changes due to any variable considered in isolation is smaller than the temperature changes from coupled feedback simulations. This non-linearity is strongest when all three climate variables are allowed to interact. Surface albedo appears to be the strongest driver of this non-linear behavior, followed by water vapor and clouds. This is because increases in longwave radiation absorbed by the surface, related to increases in water vapor and clouds, and increases in surface absorbed shortwave radiation caused by a decrease in surface albedo, amplify each other. Furthermore, our results corroborate previous findings that while increases in cloud cover and water vapor, along with the greenhouse effect itself, warm the polar regions, water vapor also significantly warms equatorial regions, which reduces polar amplification. Changes in surface albedo drive large changes in absorption of incoming shortwave radiation, thereby enhancing surface warming. Unlike high latitudes, surface albedo change at low latitudes are more constrained. Interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and clouds drive larger increases in temperatures in the polar regions compared to low latitudes. This is in spite of the fact that, due to a forcing, cloud cover increases at high latitudes and decreases in low latitudes, and that water vapor significantly enhances warming at low latitudes.

Impact of thermal time shift on wheat phenology and yield under warming climate in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Dengpan; Qi, Yongqing; Li, Zhiqiang; Wang, Rende; Moiwo, Juana P.; Liu, Fengshan

2017-03-01

Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In this study, field observations at 10 stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHP) are used in combination with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model to determine the effect of thermal time shift on the phenology and potential yield of wheat from 1981-2009. Warming climate speeds up winter wheat development and thereby decreases the duration of the wheat growth period. However, APSIM-Wheat model simulation suggests prolongation of the period from flowering to maturity (Gr) of winter wheat by 0.2-0.8 d•10yr-1 as the number of days by which maturity advances, which is less than that by which flowering advances. Based on computed thermal time of the two critical growth phases of wheat, total thermal time from floral initiation to flowering (TT_floral_initiation) increasesd in seven out of the 10 investigated stations. Alternatively, total thermal time from the start of grainfilling to maturity (TT_start_ grain_fill) increased in all investigated stations, except Laiyang. It is thus concluded that thermal time shift during the past three decades (1981-2009) prolongs Gr by 0.2-3.0 d•10yr-1 in the study area. This suggests that an increase in thermal time (TT) of the wheat growth period is critical for mitigating the effect of growth period reduction due to warming climatic condition. Furthermore, climate change reduces potential yield of winter wheat in 80% of the stations by 2.3-58.8 kg•yr-1. However, thermal time shift (TTS) increases potential yield of winter wheat in most of the stations by 3.0-51.0 kg•yr-1. It is concluded that wheat cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production in the study area.

Recession of the Northern polar cap from the PFS Mars Express observations

Science.gov (United States)

Zasova, L. V.; Formisano, V.; Moroz, V. I.; Giuranna, M.; Grassi, D.; Hansen, G.; Ignatiev, N. I.; Maturilli, A.; Pfs Team

Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) has two spectral channels, devoted to the thermal and solar reflected spectral range investigations. The first observations by PFS of the Northern hemisphere ,which includes the North pole, occurred at Ls= 342 (northern winter). Surface temperature alone the orbit shows that the CO2 ice polar cap, where the surface temperature is found around 150K and below, is extended down to about 62 N. The spectra at latitudes above 80 N are obtained at polar darkness and at latitudes below 80 at illumination by the low Sun. Retrieved temperature profiles of the atmosphere at darkness show that temperature of the atmosphere is low enough to allow the CO2 condensation up to about 25 km. Between 70 and 80 latitude the upper levels of the atmosphere are heated by the Sun, but condensation of the CO2 may occur in the near surface layer below 5 km. The water ice clouds exist at lower latitudes with maximum opacity at the edge of the polar cap. More detailed investigation of the data obtained in winter as well as of the measurements in the northern spring will be presented.

Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, Stephen G; Castro de la Guardia, Laura; Derocher, Andrew E; Sahanatien, Vicki; Tremblay, Bruno; Huard, David

2014-01-01

Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling. Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands. Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Regehr, E.V.; Lunn, N.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2007-01-01

Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.

2012-01-01

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe. (orig.)

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2012-12-15

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe. (orig.)

Developing a module for estimating climate warming effects on hydropower pricing in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guégan, Marion; Uvo, Cintia B.; Madani, Kaveh

2012-01-01

Climate warming is expected to alter hydropower generation in California through affecting the annual stream-flow regimes and reducing snowpack. On the other hand, increased temperatures are expected to increase hydropower demand for cooling in warm periods while decreasing demand for heating in winter, subsequently altering the annual hydropower pricing patterns. The resulting variations in hydropower supply and pricing regimes necessitate changes in reservoir operations to minimize the revenue losses from climate warming. Previous studies in California have only explored the effects of hydrological changes on hydropower generation and revenues. This study builds a long-term hydropower pricing estimation tool, based on artificial neural network (ANN), to develop pricing scenarios under different climate warming scenarios. Results suggest higher average hydropower prices under climate warming scenarios than under historical climate. The developed tool is integrated with California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) to facilitate simultaneous consideration of climate warming on hydropower supply, demand and pricing. EBHOM estimates an additional 5% drop in annual revenues under a dry warming scenario when climate change impacts on pricing are considered, with respect to when such effects are ignored, underlining the importance of considering changes in hydropower demand and pricing in future studies and policy making. - Highlights: ► Addressing the major gap in previous climate change and hydropower studies in California. ► Developing an ANN-based long-term hydropower price estimation tool. ► Estimating climate change effects on hydropower demand and pricing in California. ► Investigating the sensitivity of hydropower operations to future price changes. ► Underlining the importance of consideration of climate change impacts on electricity pricing.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

2015-01-01

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

Warming in the Nordic Seas, North Atlantic storms and thinning Arctic sea ice

Science.gov (United States)

Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Walsh, John E.; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Smirnov, Alexander V.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice over the last few decades has experienced a significant decline in coverage both in summer and winter. The currently warming Atlantic Water layer has a pronounced impact on sea ice in the Nordic Seas (including the Barents Sea). More open water combined with the prevailing atmospheric pattern of airflow from the southeast, and persistent North Atlantic storms such as the recent extremely strong Storm Frank in December 2015, lead to increased energy transport to the high Arctic. Each of these storms brings sizeable anomalies of heat to the high Arctic, resulting in significant warming and slowing down of sea ice growth or even melting. Our analysis indicates that the recently observed sea ice decline in the Nordic Seas during the cold season around Svalbard, Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, and the associated heat release from open water into the atmosphere, contributed significantly to the increase in the downward longwave radiation throughout the entire Arctic. Added to other changes in the surface energy budget, this increase since the 1960s to the present is estimated to be at least 10 W m-2, which can result in thinner (up to at least 15-20 cm) Arctic ice at the end of the winter. This change in the surface budget is an important contributing factor accelerating the thinning of Arctic sea ice.

Winters fuels report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The outlook for distillate fuel oil this winter is for increased demand and a return to normal inventory patterns, assuming a resumption of normal, cooler weather than last winter. With industrial production expected to grow slightly from last winter's pace, overall consumption is projected to increase 3 percent from last winter, to 3.4 million barrels per day during the heating season (October 1, 1995-March 31, 1996). Much of the supply win come from stock drawdowns and refinery production. Estimates for the winter are from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) 4th Quarter 1995 Short-Tenn Energy Outlook (STEO) Mid-World Oil Price Case forecast. Inventories in place on September 30, 1995, of 132 million barrels were 9 percent below the unusually high year-earlier level. Inventories of high-sulfur distillate fuel oil, the principal type used for heating, were 13 percent lower than a year earlier. Supply problems are not anticipated because refinery production and the ready availability of imports should be adequate to meet demand. Residential heating off prices are expected to be somewhat higher than last winter's, as the effects of lower crude oil prices are offset by lower distillate inventories. Heating oil is forecast to average $0.92 per gallon, the highest price since the winter of 1992-93. Diesel fuel (including tax) is predicted to be slightly higher than last year at $1.13 per gallon. This article focuses on the winter assessment for distillate fuel oil, how well last year's STEO winter outlook compared to actual events, and expectations for the coming winter. Additional analyses include regional low-sulfur and high-sulfur distillate supply, demand, and prices, and recent trends in distillate fuel oil inventories

Effect of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean warming since the late 1970s on wintertime Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate interdecadal changes

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Cuijiao; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Sun, Xuguang; Yang, Dejian; Jiang, Yiquan; Feng, Tao; Liang, Jin

2018-04-01

Observation reveals that the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean (TPIO) has experienced a pronounced interdecadal warming since the end of the 1970s. Meanwhile, the wintertime midlatitude Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate have also undergone substantial interdecadal changes. The effect of the TPIO warming on these interdecadal changes are identified by a suite of AMIP-type atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the model is integrated from September 1948 to December 1999 with prescribed historical, observed realistic sea surface temperature (SST) in a specific region and climatological SST elsewhere. Results show that the TPIO warming reproduces quite well the observed Northern Hemispheric wintertime interdecadal changes, suggesting that these interdecadal changes primarily originate from the TPIO warming. However, each sub-region of TPIO has its own distinct contribution. Comparatively, the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) and tropical western Pacific (TWP) warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive-phase PNA-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Pacific sector, while the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming tends to cancel these contributions. Meanwhile, the TIO and TWP warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive NAO-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Atlantic sector as well as the interdecadal anomalies over the Eurasian sector, although the TWP warming's contribution is relatively small. These remote responses are directly attributed to the TPIO warming-induced tropical convection, rainfall and diabatic heating increases, in which the TIO warming has the most significant effect. Moreover, the TPIO warming excites a Gill-type pattern anomaly over the tropical western Pacific, with a low-level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea. Of three sub-regions, the TIO warming dominates such a pattern, although the TWP warming tends to cancel this effect

Peatland Woody Plant Growth Responses to Warming and Elevated CO2 in a Southern-boreal Raised Bog Ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, J. R.; Hanson, P. J.; Warren, J.; Ward, E. J.; Brice, D. J.; Graham, J.

2017-12-01

Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) is an in situ warming by elevated CO2 manipulation located in a high-carbon, spruce peatland in northern Minnesota. Warming treatments combined a 12-m diameter open topped chamber with internally recirculating warm air and soil deep heating to simulate a broad range of future warming treatments. Deep below ground soil warming rates are 0, +2.25, +4.5, +6.75, and +9 °C. Deep belowground warming was initiated in June 2014 followed by air warming in August 2015. In June 2016, elevated CO2 atmospheres (eCO2 at + 500 ppm) were added to half of the warming treatments in a regression design. Our objective was to track long-term vegetation responses to warming and eCO2. Annual tree growth is based on winter measurement of circumference of all Picea mariana and Larix laricina trees within each 113 m2 plot, automated dendrometers, terrestrial LIDAR scanning of tree heights and canopy volumes, and destructive allometry. Annual shrub growth is measured in late summer by destructive clipping in two 0.25 m2 sub-plots and separation of the current year tissues. During the first year of warming, tree basal area growth was reduced for Picea, but not Larix trees. Growth responses for the woody shrub vegetation remains highly variable with a trend towards increasing growth with warming. Elevated CO2 enhancements of growth are not yet evident in the data. Second-year results will also be reported. Long-term hypotheses for increased woody plant growth under warming include potential enhancements driven by increased nutrient availability from warming induced decomposition of surface peats.

A fifty year record of winter glacier melt events in southern Chile, 38°–42°S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brock, Ben W; Burger, Flavia; Montecinos, Aldo; Rivera, Andrés

2012-01-01

Little is known about the frequency and potential mass balance impact of winter glacier melt events. In this study, daily atmospheric temperature soundings from the Puerto Montt radiosonde (41.43°S) are used to reconstruct winter melting events at the glacier equilibrium line altitude in the 38°–42°S region of southern Chile, between 1960 and 2010. The representativeness of the radiosonde temperatures to near-surface glacier temperatures is demonstrated using meteorological records from close to the equilibrium line on two glaciers in the region over five winters. Using a degree-day model we estimate an average of 0.28 m of melt and 21 melt days in the 15 June–15 September period each year, with high inter-annual variability. The majority of melt events are associated with midlatitude migratory high pressure systems crossing Chile and northwesterly flows, that force adiabatic compression and warm advection, respectively. There are no trends in the frequency or magnitude of melt events over the period of record, but the annual frequency of winter melt days shows a significant, although rather weak and probably non-linear, relationship to late winter and early spring values of a multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). (letter)

Rational Irrationality: Modeling Climate Change Belief Polarization Using Bayesian Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, John; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2016-01-01

Belief polarization is said to occur when two people respond to the same evidence by updating their beliefs in opposite directions. This response is considered to be "irrational" because it involves contrary updating, a form of belief updating that appears to violate normatively optimal responding, as for example dictated by Bayes' theorem. In light of much evidence that people are capable of normatively optimal behavior, belief polarization presents a puzzling exception. We show that Bayesian networks, or Bayes nets, can simulate rational belief updating. When fit to experimental data, Bayes nets can help identify the factors that contribute to polarization. We present a study into belief updating concerning the reality of climate change in response to information about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The study used representative samples of Australian and U.S. Among Australians, consensus information partially neutralized the influence of worldview, with free-market supporters showing a greater increase in acceptance of human-caused global warming relative to free-market opponents. In contrast, while consensus information overall had a positive effect on perceived consensus among U.S. participants, there was a reduction in perceived consensus and acceptance of human-caused global warming for strong supporters of unregulated free markets. Fitting a Bayes net model to the data indicated that under a Bayesian framework, free-market support is a significant driver of beliefs about climate change and trust in climate scientists. Further, active distrust of climate scientists among a small number of U.S. conservatives drives contrary updating in response to consensus information among this particular group. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Seasonality intensification and long-term winter cooling as a part of the Late Pliocene climate development

Science.gov (United States)

Klotz, Stefan; Fauquette, Séverine; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Uhl, Dieter; Suc, Jean-Pierre; Mosbrugger, Volker

2006-01-01

A mutual climatic range method is applied to the Mediterranean marine pollen record of Semaforo (Vrica section, Calabria, Italy) covering the period from ∼2.46 Ma to ∼2.11 Ma. The method yields detailed information on summer, annual and winter temperatures and on precipitation during the nine obliquity and precession-controlled 'glacial' periods (marine isotope stages 96 to 80) and eight 'interglacial' periods (marine isotope stages 95 to 81) characterising this time interval. The reconstruction reveals higher temperatures of at least 2.8 °C in mean annual and 2.2 °C in winter temperatures, and 500 mm in precipitation during the 'interglacials' as compared to the present-day climate in the study area. During the 'glacials', temperatures are generally lower as compared to the present-day climate in the region, but precipitation is equivalent. Along the consecutive 'interglacials', a trend toward a reduction in annual and winter temperatures by more than 2.3 °C, and toward a higher seasonality is observed. Along the consecutive 'glacials', a trend toward a strong reduction in all temperature parameters of at least 1.6 °C is reconstructed. Climatic amplitudes of 'interglacial-glacial' transitions increase from the older to the younger cycles for summer and annual temperatures. The cross-spectral analyses suggest obliquity related warm/humid-cold/dry 'interglacial-glacial' cycles which are superimposed by precession related warm/dry- cold/humid cycles. A time displacement in the development of temperatures and precipitation is indicated for the obliquity band by temperatures generally leading precipitation change at ∼4 kyr, and on the precession band of ∼9.6 kyr in maximum.

Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

2017-01-01

The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

Exceptional Air Mass Transport and Dynamical Drivers of an Extreme Wintertime Arctic Warm Event

Science.gov (United States)

Binder, Hanin; Boettcher, Maxi; Grams, Christian M.; Joos, Hanna; Pfahl, Stephan; Wernli, Heini

2017-12-01

At the turn of the years 2015/2016, maximum surface temperature in the Arctic reached record-high values, exceeding the melting point, which led to a strong reduction of the Arctic sea ice extent in the middle of the cold season. Here we show, using a Lagrangian method, that a combination of very different airstreams contributed to this event: (i) warm low-level air of subtropical origin, (ii) initially cold low-level air of polar origin heated by surface fluxes, and (iii) strongly descending air heated by adiabatic compression. The poleward transport of these warm airstreams occurred along an intense low-level jet between a series of cyclones and a quasi-stationary anticyclone. The complex 3-D configuration that enabled this transport was facilitated by continuous warm conveyor belt ascent into the upper part of the anticyclone. This study emphasizes the combined role of multiple transport processes and transient synoptic-scale dynamics for establishing an extreme Arctic warm event.

Door still open for action on issue of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crow, P.

1992-01-01

Global warming may or may not be a legitimate environmental threat, but Washington lobbyists consider it a legislative threat. It does not appear the current Congress will limit or tax use of U.S. fossil fuels, whose burning releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This paper reports that some scientists have claimed a concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will result in a significant warming of the earth by 2050, threatening agriculture, altering ecosystems, and even melting polar ice and causing rising oceans to flood coastal areas and islands. In 1990 a United Nations panel of climate scientists predicted a 2 degrees C. increase in world temperatures within 35 years and 6 degrees by the end of the next century. Some scientists say preventing further increases will require a 60% reduction in current CO 2 emissions. The oil industry already is beginning to feel heat from the global warming issue. The Environmental Protection Agency calculates energy production and use is responsible for 57% of current emissions caused by man

Dark winter how the sun is causing a 30-year cold spell

CERN Document Server

Casey, John L

2014-01-01

Climate change has been a perplexing problem for years. In Dark Winter, author John L. Casey, a former White House national space policy advisor, NASA headquarters consultant, and space shuttle engineer tells the truth about ominous changes taking place in the climate and the Sun. Casey's research into the Sun's activity, which began almost a decade ago, resulted in discovery of a solar cycle that is now reversing from its global warming phase to that of dangerous global cooling for the next thirty years or more. This new cold climate will dramatically impact the world's citizens. In Dark Wint

Why Do Some Evergreen Species Keep Their Leaves for a Second Winter, While Others Lose Them?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter J. Grubb

2014-10-01

Full Text Available In subtropical montane semi-moist forest in SW China (SMSF, a large majority of evergreen tree and tall shrub species was found to have only one cohort of old leaves in early spring. In contrast, almost all species of evergreen tree and tall shrub in warm temperate rain forest (WTRF in Japan and sclerophylls in Mediterranean-climate forest (MSF of the Mediterranean Basin have two or more cohorts of old leaves in early spring; they drop their oldest cohort during or soon after leaf outgrowth in spring. Japanese WTRF has no dry season and MSF a dry summer. SMSF has a dry winter. On four evergreen Rhododendron species from SW China with only one cohort of old leaves in spring when in cultivation in Scotland, the majority of leaves in the senescing cohort fell by the end of December. We hypothesize that with dry winters, there is an advantage to dropping older leaves in autumn, because there is a low chance of appreciable positive assimilation in winter and a high chance of desiccation, reducing the resorption of dry mass and mineral nutrients from ageing leaves. Our hypothesis may be extended to cover evergreens at high altitude or high latitude that experience cold soils in winter.

Survival of rapidly fluctuating natural low winter temperatures by High Arctic soil invertebrates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Convey, Peter; Abbandonato, Holly; Bergan, Frode

2015-01-01

The extreme polar environment creates challenges for its resident invertebrate communities and the stress tolerance of some of these animals has been examined over many years. However, although it is well appreciated that standard air temperature records often fail to describe accurately conditions...... microhabitats. To assess survival of natural High Arctic soil invertebrate communities contained in soil and vegetation cores to natural winter temperature variations, the overwintering temperatures they experienced were manipulated by deploying cores in locations with varying snow accumulation: No Snow...... and did not decrease below -12. °C. Those under deep snow were even more stable and did not decline below -2. °C. Despite these striking differences in winter thermal regimes, there were no clear differences in survival of the invertebrate fauna between treatments, including oribatid, prostigmatid...

Treeline advances along the Urals mountain range - driven by improved winter conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Hagedorn, Frank; Shiyatov, Stepan G; Mazepa, Valeriy S; Devi, Nadezhda M; Grigor'ev, Andrey A; Bartysh, Alexandr A; Fomin, Valeriy V; Kapralov, Denis S; Terent'ev, Maxim; Bugman, Harald; Rigling, Andreas; Moiseev, Pavel A

2014-11-01

High-altitude treelines are temperature-limited vegetation boundaries, but little quantitative evidence exists about the impact of climate change on treelines in untouched areas of Russia. Here, we estimated how forest-tundra ecotones have changed during the last century along the Ural mountains. In the South, North, Sub-Polar, and Polar Urals, we compared 450 historical and recent photographs and determined the ages of 11,100 trees along 16 altitudinal gradients. In these four regions, boundaries of open and closed forests (crown covers above 20% and 40%) expanded upwards by 4 to 8 m in altitude per decade. Results strongly suggest that snow was an important driver for these forest advances: (i) Winter precipitation has increased substantially throughout the Urals (~7 mm decade(-1) ), which corresponds to almost a doubling in the Polar Urals, while summer temperatures have only changed slightly (~0.05°C decade(-1) ). (ii) There was a positive correlation between canopy cover, snow height and soil temperatures, suggesting that an increasing canopy cover promotes snow accumulation and, hence, a more favorable microclimate. (iii) Tree age analysis showed that forest expansion mainly began around the year 1900 on concave wind-sheltered slopes with thick snow covers, while it started in the 1950s and 1970s on slopes with shallower snow covers. (iv) During the 20th century, dominant growth forms of trees have changed from multistemmed trees, resulting from harsh winter conditions, to single-stemmed trees. While 87%, 31%, and 93% of stems appearing before 1950 were from multistemmed trees in the South, North and Polar Urals, more than 95% of the younger trees had a single stem. Currently, there is a high density of seedlings and saplings in the forest-tundra ecotone, indicating that forest expansion is ongoing and that alpine tundra vegetation will disappear from most mountains of the South and North Urals where treeline is already close to the highest peaks. © 2014

Combined effects of elevated temperature and CO2 enhance threat from low temperature hazard to winter wheat growth in North China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Kaiyan; Zhou, Guangsheng; Lv, Xiaomin; Guo, Jianping; Ren, Sanxue

2018-03-12

We examined the growth and yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) in response to the predicted elevated CO 2 concentration and temperature to determine the mechanism of the combined impacts in North China Plain. An elevated treatment (CO 2 : 600 μmol mol -1 , temperature: +2.5~3.0 °C, ECTI) and a control treatment (ambient CO 2 and temperature, CK) were conducted in open-top chambers from October 2013 to June 2016. Post-winter growth stages of winter wheat largely advanced and shifted to a cooler period of nature season under combined impact of elevated CO 2 and temperature during the entire growing season. The mean temperature and accumulated photosynthetic active radiations (PAR) over the post-winter growing period in ECTI decreased by 0.8-1.5 °C and 10-13%, respectively compared with that in CK, negatively impacted winter wheat growth. As a result, winter wheat in ECTI suffered from low temperature hazards during critical period of floret development and anthesis and grain number per ear was reduced by 10-31% in the three years. Although 1000-kernel weight in ECTI increased by 8-9% mainly due to elevated CO 2 , increasing CO 2 concentration from 400 to 600 μmol mol -1 throughout the growth stage was not able to offset the adverse effect of warming on winter wheat growth and yield.

Winter range expansion of a hummingbird is associated with urbanization and supplementary feeding

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Eric M.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic changes to the landscape and climate cause novel ecological and evolutionary pressures, leading to potentially dramatic changes in the distribution of biodiversity. Warm winter temperatures can shift species' distributions to regions that were previously uninhabitable. Further, urbanization and supplementary feeding may facilitate range expansions and potentially reduce migration tendency. Here we explore how these factors interact to cause non-uniform effects across a species's range. Using 17 years of data from the citizen science programme Project FeederWatch, we examined the relationships between urbanization, winter temperatures and the availability of supplementary food (i.e. artificial nectar) on the winter range expansion (more than 700 km northward in the past two decades) of Anna's hummingbirds (Calypte anna). We found that Anna's hummingbirds have colonized colder locations over time, were more likely to colonize sites with higher housing density and were more likely to visit feeders in the expanded range compared to the historical range. Additionally, their range expansion mirrored a corresponding increase over time in the tendency of people to provide nectar feeders in the expanded range. This work illustrates how humans may alter the distribution and potentially the migratory behaviour of species through landscape and resource modification. PMID:28381617

Gaz de France first quarter 2007 sales: an 11 per cent drop due to an exceptionally warm winter: a 1.3 per cent increase on an average-climate basis. Non-audited IFRS data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Paris, May 14 2007 - For the first quarter 2007, Gaz de France Group posted euro 9,053 million in consolidated sales. This 11 per cent decrease on the same period in 2006 is a direct result of the extremely warm weather conditions in France and Europe this winter. In contrast, under average climate conditions sales improved by 1.3 per cent. In France, where the winter of 2006/2007 was the warmest in fifty years, sales were impacted by 18 billion kWh in the quarter compared to a quarter with average-climate conditions and 32 billion kWh compared to the first quarter 2006 which, in contrast, was colder than normal. The impact of the weather had similar effects on sales outside France. The highly unusual weather conditions also had an indirect impact on the market and, consequently, on both gas production and the arbitrage activities. Not withstanding these effects, the Group continued to consolidate its position in foreign markets, with sales outside France reaching euro 3,341 million. The share of sales outside France increased by 3 points in the first quarter of 2007 versus first quarter 2006 to 37 per cent as at end March 2007. The group reiterates the 2007 financial objective as presented at the full year 2006 results: '2007 will be a year of consolidation and the EBITDA should be in line with that of 2006'.

Gaz de France first quarter 2007 sales: an 11 per cent drop due to an exceptionally warm winter: a 1.3 per cent increase on an average-climate basis. Non-audited IFRS data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Paris, May 14 2007 - For the first quarter 2007, Gaz de France Group posted euro 9,053 million in consolidated sales. This 11 per cent decrease on the same period in 2006 is a direct result of the extremely warm weather conditions in France and Europe this winter. In contrast, under average climate conditions sales improved by 1.3 per cent. In France, where the winter of 2006/2007 was the warmest in fifty years, sales were impacted by 18 billion kWh in the quarter compared to a quarter with average-climate conditions and 32 billion kWh compared to the first quarter 2006 which, in contrast, was colder than normal. The impact of the weather had similar effects on sales outside France. The highly unusual weather conditions also had an indirect impact on the market and, consequently, on both gas production and the arbitrage activities. Not withstanding these effects, the Group continued to consolidate its position in foreign markets, with sales outside France reaching euro 3,341 million. The share of sales outside France increased by 3 points in the first quarter of 2007 versus first quarter 2006 to 37 per cent as at end March 2007. The group reiterates the 2007 financial objective as presented at the full year 2006 results: '2007 will be a year of consolidation and the EBITDA should be in line with that of 2006'

Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate

Science.gov (United States)

Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Grosse, Guido; Bondurant, Allen C.; Romanovksy, Vladimir E.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Parsekian, Andrew D.

2016-01-01

Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1 m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (2.4°C), with MABT above freezing 5 of the last 7 years. This is in comparison to slower rates of warming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.

Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

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Stephen G Hamilton

Full Text Available Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

Severe haze in Hangzhou in winter 2013/14 and associated meteorological anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yini; Zhu, Zhiwei; Luo, Ling; Zhang, Jiwei

2018-03-01

Aerosol pollution over eastern China has worsened considerably in recent years, resulting in heavy haze weather with low visibility and poor air quality. The present study investigates the characteristics of haze weather in Hangzhou city, and aims to unravel the meteorological anomalies associated with the heavy haze that occurred over Hangzhou in winter 2013/14. On the interannual timescale, because of the neutral condition of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies during winter 2013/14, no significant circulation and convection anomalies were induced over East Asia, leading to a stable atmospheric condition favorable for haze weather in Hangzhou. Besides, the shift of the polar vortex, caused by changes in surface temperature and ice cover at high latitudes, induced a barotropic anomalous circulation dipole pattern. The southerly anomaly associated with this anomalous dipole pattern hindered the transportation of cold/clear air mass from Siberia to central-eastern China, leading to abnormal haze during winter 2013/14 in Hangzhou. On the intraseasonal timescale, an eastward-propagating mid-latitude Rossby wave train altered the meridional wind anomaly over East Asia, causing the intraseasonal variability of haze weather during 2013/14 in Hangzhou.

A-train CALIOP and MLS observations of early winter Antarctic polar stratospheric clouds and nitric acid in 2008

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A. Lambert

2012-03-01

Full Text Available A-train Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS observations are used to investigate the development of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs and the gas-phase nitric acid distribution in the early 2008 Antarctic winter. Observational evidence of gravity-wave activity is provided by Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS radiances and infrared spectroscopic detection of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT in PSCs is obtained from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS. Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-5 DAS analyses are used to derive Lagrangian trajectories and to determine temperature-time histories of air parcels. We use CALIOP backscatter and depolarization measurements to classify PSCs and the MLS measurements to determine the corresponding gas-phase HNO₃ as a function of temperature. For liquid PSCs the uptake of HNO₃ follows the theoretical equilibrium curve for supercooled ternary solutions (STS, but at temperatures about 1 K lower as determined from GEOS-5. In the presence of solid phase PSCs, above the ice frost-point, the HNO₃ depletion occurs over a wider range of temperatures (+2 to −7 K distributed about the NAT equilibrium curve. Rapid gas-phase HNO₃ depletion is first seen by MLS from from 23–25 May 2008, consisting of a decrease in the volume mixing ratio from 14 ppbv (parts per billion by volume to 7 ppbv on the 46–32 hPa (hectopascal pressure levels and accompanied by a 2–3 ppbv increase by renitrification at the 68 hPa pressure level. The observed region of depleted HNO₃ is substantially smaller than the region bounded by the NAT existence temperature threshold. Temperature-time histories of air parcels demonstrate that the depletion is more clearly correlated with prior exposure to temperatures a few kelvin above the frost-point. From the combined data we infer the presence

The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme northern hemisphere winter of 2013/14

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Watson, Peter; Weisheimer, Antje; Knight, Jeff; Palmer, Tim

2016-04-01

In the 2013/14 winter, the eastern USA was exceptionally cold, the Bering Strait region was exceptionally warm, California was in the midst of drought and the UK suffered severe flooding. It has been suggested that elevated SSTs in the tropical West Pacific (TWPAC) were partly to blame due to their producing a Rossby wavetrain that propagated into the extratropics. We find that seasonal forecasts with the tropical atmosphere relaxed towards a reanalysis give 2013/14 winter-mean anomalies with strong similarities to those observed in the Northern Hemisphere, indicating that low-latitude anomalies had a role in the development of the extremes. Relaxing just the TWPAC produces a strong wavetrain over the North Pacific and North America in January, but not in the winter-mean. This suggests that anomalies in this region alone had a large influence, but cannot explain the extremes through the whole winter. We also examine the response to applying the observed TWPAC SST anomalies in two atmospheric general circulation models. We find that this does produce winter-mean anomalies in the North Pacific and North America resembling those observed, but that the tropical forcing of Rossby waves due to the applied SST anomalies appears stronger than that in reanalysis, except in January. Therefore both experiments indicate that the TWPAC influence was important, but the true strength of the TWPAC influence is uncertain. None of the experiments indicate a strong systematic impact of the TWPAC anomalies on Europe.

Implications of the circumpolar genetic structure of polar bears for their conservation in a rapidly warming Arctic.

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Elizabeth Peacock

Full Text Available We provide an expansive analysis of polar bear (Ursus maritimus circumpolar genetic variation during the last two decades of decline in their sea-ice habitat. We sought to evaluate whether their genetic diversity and structure have changed over this period of habitat decline, how their current genetic patterns compare with past patterns, and how genetic demography changed with ancient fluctuations in climate. Characterizing their circumpolar genetic structure using microsatellite data, we defined four clusters that largely correspond to current ecological and oceanographic factors: Eastern Polar Basin, Western Polar Basin, Canadian Archipelago and Southern Canada. We document evidence for recent (ca. last 1-3 generations directional gene flow from Southern Canada and the Eastern Polar Basin towards the Canadian Archipelago, an area hypothesized to be a future refugium for polar bears as climate-induced habitat decline continues. Our data provide empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis. The direction of current gene flow differs from earlier patterns of gene flow in the Holocene. From analyses of mitochondrial DNA, the Canadian Archipelago cluster and the Barents Sea subpopulation within the Eastern Polar Basin cluster did not show signals of population expansion, suggesting these areas may have served also as past interglacial refugia. Mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA data from polar and the paraphyletic brown bear (U. arctos uncovered offset signals in timing of population expansion between the two species, that are attributed to differential demographic responses to past climate cycling. Mitogenomic structure of polar bears was shallow and developed recently, in contrast to the multiple clades of brown bears. We found no genetic signatures of recent hybridization between the species in our large, circumpolar sample, suggesting that recently observed hybrids represent localized events. Documenting changes in subpopulation

Implications of the circumpolar genetic structure of polar bears for their conservation in a rapidly warming Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Peacock, Elizabeth; Sonsthagen, Sarah A; Obbard, Martyn E; Boltunov, Andrei; Regehr, Eric V; Ovsyanikov, Nikita; Aars, Jon; Atkinson, Stephen N; Sage, George K; Hope, Andrew G; Zeyl, Eve; Bachmann, Lutz; Ehrich, Dorothee; Scribner, Kim T; Amstrup, Steven C; Belikov, Stanislav; Born, Erik W; Derocher, Andrew E; Stirling, Ian; Taylor, Mitchell K; Wiig, Øystein; Paetkau, David; Talbot, Sandra L

2015-01-01

We provide an expansive analysis of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) circumpolar genetic variation during the last two decades of decline in their sea-ice habitat. We sought to evaluate whether their genetic diversity and structure have changed over this period of habitat decline, how their current genetic patterns compare with past patterns, and how genetic demography changed with ancient fluctuations in climate. Characterizing their circumpolar genetic structure using microsatellite data, we defined four clusters that largely correspond to current ecological and oceanographic factors: Eastern Polar Basin, Western Polar Basin, Canadian Archipelago and Southern Canada. We document evidence for recent (ca. last 1-3 generations) directional gene flow from Southern Canada and the Eastern Polar Basin towards the Canadian Archipelago, an area hypothesized to be a future refugium for polar bears as climate-induced habitat decline continues. Our data provide empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis. The direction of current gene flow differs from earlier patterns of gene flow in the Holocene. From analyses of mitochondrial DNA, the Canadian Archipelago cluster and the Barents Sea subpopulation within the Eastern Polar Basin cluster did not show signals of population expansion, suggesting these areas may have served also as past interglacial refugia. Mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA data from polar and the paraphyletic brown bear (U. arctos) uncovered offset signals in timing of population expansion between the two species, that are attributed to differential demographic responses to past climate cycling. Mitogenomic structure of polar bears was shallow and developed recently, in contrast to the multiple clades of brown bears. We found no genetic signatures of recent hybridization between the species in our large, circumpolar sample, suggesting that recently observed hybrids represent localized events. Documenting changes in subpopulation connectivity will allow

Implications of the circumpolar genetic structure of polar bears for their conservation in a rapidly warming Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Peacock, Elizabeth; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Boltunov, Andrei N.; Regehr, Eric V.; Ovsyanikov, Nikita; Aars, Jon; Atkinson, Stephen N.; Sage, George K.; Hope, Andrew G.; Zeyl, Eve; Bachmann, Lutz; Ehrich, Dorothee; Scribner, Kim T.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Born, Erik W.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Stirling, Ian; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Wiig, Øystein; Paetkau, David; Talbot, Sandra L.

2015-01-01

We provide an expansive analysis of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) circumpolar genetic variation during the last two decades of decline in their sea-ice habitat. We sought to evaluate whether their genetic diversity and structure have changed over this period of habitat decline, how their current genetic patterns compare with past patterns, and how genetic demography changed with ancient fluctuations in climate. Characterizing their circumpolar genetic structure using microsatellite data, we defined four clusters that largely correspond to current ecological and oceanographic factors: Eastern Polar Basin, Western Polar Basin, Canadian Archipelago and Southern Canada. We document evidence for recent (ca. last 1–3 generations) directional gene flow from Southern Canada and the Eastern Polar Basin towards the Canadian Archipelago, an area hypothesized to be a future refugium for polar bears as climate-induced habitat decline continues. Our data provide empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis. The direction of current gene flow differs from earlier patterns of gene flow in the Holocene. From analyses of mitochondrial DNA, the Canadian Archipelago cluster and the Barents Sea subpopulation within the Eastern Polar Basin cluster did not show signals of population expansion, suggesting these areas may have served also as past interglacial refugia. Mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA data from polar and the paraphyletic brown bear (U. arctos) uncovered offset signals in timing of population expansion between the two species, that are attributed to differential demographic responses to past climate cycling. Mitogenomic structure of polar bears was shallow and developed recently, in contrast to the multiple clades of brown bears. We found no genetic signatures of recent hybridization between the species in our large, circumpolar sample, suggesting that recently observed hybrids represent localized events. Documenting changes in subpopulation connectivity will

Preliminary Evidence for the Amplification of Global Warming in Shallow, Intertidal Estuarine Waters.

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Autumn Oczkowski

Full Text Available Over the past 50 years, mean annual water temperature in northeastern U.S. estuaries has increased by approximately 1.2°C, with most of the warming recorded in the winter and early spring. A recent survey and synthesis of data from four locations in Southern Rhode Island has led us to hypothesize that this warming may be amplified in the shallow (<1 m, nearshore portions of these estuaries. While intertidal areas are not typically selected as locations for long-term monitoring, we compiled data from published literature, theses, and reports that suggest that enhanced warming may be occurring, perhaps at rates three times higher than deeper estuarine waters. Warmer spring waters may be one of the factors influencing biota residing in intertidal regions both in general as well as at our specific sites. We observed greater abundance of fish, and size of Menidia sp., in recent (2010-2012 seine surveys compared to similar collections in 1962. While any linkages are speculative and data are preliminary, taken together they suggest that shallow intertidal portions of estuaries may be important places to look for the effects of climate change.

Preliminary Evidence for the Amplification of Global Warming in Shallow, Intertidal Estuarine Waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Oczkowski, Autumn; McKinney, Richard; Ayvazian, Suzanne; Hanson, Alana; Wigand, Cathleen; Markham, Erin

2015-01-01

Over the past 50 years, mean annual water temperature in northeastern U.S. estuaries has increased by approximately 1.2°C, with most of the warming recorded in the winter and early spring. A recent survey and synthesis of data from four locations in Southern Rhode Island has led us to hypothesize that this warming may be amplified in the shallow (<1 m), nearshore portions of these estuaries. While intertidal areas are not typically selected as locations for long-term monitoring, we compiled data from published literature, theses, and reports that suggest that enhanced warming may be occurring, perhaps at rates three times higher than deeper estuarine waters. Warmer spring waters may be one of the factors influencing biota residing in intertidal regions both in general as well as at our specific sites. We observed greater abundance of fish, and size of Menidia sp., in recent (2010-2012) seine surveys compared to similar collections in 1962. While any linkages are speculative and data are preliminary, taken together they suggest that shallow intertidal portions of estuaries may be important places to look for the effects of climate change.

Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy.

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Jeffrey A; van den Berg, Daphne; Ellers, Jacintha; Kampen, Remko; Crowther, Thomas W; Roessingh, Peter; Verheggen, Bart; Nuijten, Rascha J M; Post, Eric; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Stirling, Ian; Balgopal, Meena; Amstrup, Steven C; Mann, Michael E

2018-04-01

Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a "poster species" for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere.

Evaluation of the tropospheric flows to a major Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming event using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data with a PSU/NCAR nudging MM5V3 model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, K.

2008-04-01

Previous studies of the exceptional 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming event lead to some uncertainty, namely the question of whether excessive heat fluxes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are a symptom or cause of the 2002 SH warming event. In this work, we use a hemispheric version of the MM5 model with nudging capability and we devised a novel approach to separately test the significance of the stratosphere and troposphere for this year. We paired the flow conditions from 2002 in the stratosphere and troposphere, respectively, against the conditions in 1998 (a year with displaced polar vortex) and in 1948 (a year with strong polar vortex that coincided with the geographical South Pole). Our experiments show that the flow conditions from below determine the stratospheric flow features over the polar region. Regardless of the initial stratospheric conditions in 1998 or 1948, when we simulated these past stratospheres with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conditions constrained to 2002 levels, the simulated middle stratospheres resemble those observed in 2002 stratosphere over the polar region. On the other hand, when the 2002 stratosphere was integrated with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conductions constrained to 1948 and 1998, respectively, the simulated middle stratospheric conditions over the polar region shift toward those of 1948 and 1998. Thus, our experiments further support the wave-forcing theory as the cause of the 2002 SH warming event.

Why on the snow? Winter emergence strategies of snow-active Chironomidae (Diptera) in Poland.

Science.gov (United States)

Soszyńska-Maj, Agnieszka; Paasivirta, Lauri; Giłka, Wojciech

2016-10-01

A long-term study of adult non-biting midges (Chironomidae) active in winter on the snow in mountain areas and lowlands in Poland yielded 35 species. The lowland and mountain communities differed significantly in their specific composition. The mountain assemblage was found to be more diverse and abundant, with a substantial contribution from the subfamily Diamesinae, whereas Orthocladiinae predominated in the lowlands. Orthocladius wetterensis Brundin was the most characteristic and superdominant species in the winter-active chironomid communities in both areas. Only a few specimens and species of snow-active chironomids were recorded in late autumn and early winter. The abundance of chironomids peaked in late February in the mountain and lowland areas with an additional peak in the mountain areas in early April. However, this second peak of activity consisted mainly of Orthocladiinae, as Diamesinae emerged earliest in the season. Most snow-active species emerged in mid- and late winter, but their seasonal patterns differed between the 2 regions as a result of the different species composition and the duration of snow cover in these regions. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient tests yielded positive results between each season and the number of chironomid individuals recorded in the mountain area. A positive correlation between air temperature, rising to +3.5 °C, and the number of specimens recorded on the snow in the mountain community was statistically significant. The winter emergence and mate-searching strategies of chironomids are discussed in the light of global warming, and a brief compilation of most important published data on the phenomena studied is provided. © 2015 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Climate warming could increase recruitment success in glacier foreland plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Mondoni, Andrea; Pedrini, Simone; Bernareggi, Giulietta; Rossi, Graziano; Abeli, Thomas; Probert, Robin J; Ghitti, Michele; Bonomi, Costantino; Orsenigo, Simone

2015-11-01

Glacier foreland plants are highly threatened by global warming. Regeneration from seeds on deglaciated terrain will be crucial for successful migration and survival of these species, and hence a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on seedling recruitment is urgently needed to predict future plant persistence in these environments. This study presents the first field evidence of the impact of climate change on recruitment success of glacier foreland plants. Seeds of eight foreland species were sown on a foreland site at 2500 m a.s.l., and at a site 400 m lower in altitude to simulate a 2·7 °C increase in mean annual temperature. Soil from the site of origin was used to reproduce the natural germination substrate. Recruitment success, temperature and water potential were monitored for 2 years. The response of seed germination to warming was further investigated in the laboratory. At the glacier foreland site, seedling emergence was low (0 to approx. 40 %) and occurred in summer in all species after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, at the warmer site there was a shift from summer to autumn emergence in two species and a significant increase of summer emergence (13-35 % higher) in all species except two. Survival and establishment was possible for 60-75 % of autumn-emerged seedlings and was generally greater under warmer conditions. Early snowmelt in spring caused the main ecological factors enhancing the recruitment success. The results suggest that warming will influence the recruitment of glacier foreland species primarily via the extension of the snow-free period in spring, which increases seedling establishment and results in a greater resistance to summer drought and winter extremes. The changes in recruitment success observed here imply that range shifts or changes in abundance are possible in a future warmer climate, but overall success may be dependent on interactions with shifts in other components of the

Coupled Effects of Climatic and Socio-economic Factors on Winter Cropping in India

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Jain, M.; Mondal, P.; Galford, G. L.; DeFries, R. S.

2015-12-01

India is predicted to be one of the most vulnerable regions in terms of agricultural sensitivity to future climate changes. Approximately 69% of India's population is rural, and over 55% of the working population relies on agriculture for sustenance and livelihoods. Indian smallholder farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland represent 78% of the total Indian farmers and produce 41% of the country's food crops. These smallholder farmers are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes due to limited access to technology, infrastructure, markets, and institutional or financial support in the case of adverse climatic events. Baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability will provide useful information for regional-level, and eventually state- and national-level, strategies and policies that promote adaption to climate variability. We use a decade of remote sensing analysis of cropping patterns and climatic factors along with census data for irrigation and demographic factors to understand winter cropping trajectories across agro-ecological zones in India. Findings from multiple agro-ecological zones indicate that there are three primary trajectories in winter cropping in India - increasing, fluctuating, and decreasing. In the Central Indian Highlands, for example, the most dominant trend is that of fluctuating cropped area, ranging between ~37,300 km2 in 2010 and ~21,100 km2 in 2013, which is associated with village-level access to irrigation and local labor dynamics. Clay soil type and increasing irrigation coverage were associated with intensification. Yet, suitable soil type and access to irrigation do not reduce vulnerability to high daytime temperatures that is negatively associated with winter crop cover. With pronounced winter warming projected in the coming decades, effective adaptation by smallholder farmers would require additional strategies, such as access to fine-scale temperature forecasts

Magneto-optical polarization rotation in a ladder-type atomic system for tunable offset locking

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parniak, Michał, E-mail: michal.parniak@fuw.edu.pl; Leszczyński, Adam; Wasilewski, Wojciech [Institute of Experimental Physics, Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw, Pasteura 5, 02-093 Warsaw (Poland)

2016-04-18

We demonstrate an easily tunable locking scheme for stabilizing frequency-sum of two lasers on a two-photon ladder transition based on polarization rotation in warm rubidium vapors induced by magnetic field and circularly polarized drive field. Unprecedented tunability of the two-photon offset frequency is due to strong splitting and shifting of magnetic states in external field. In our experimental setup, we achieve two-photon detuning of up to 700 MHz.

Effects of lead structure in Bering Sea pack ice on the flight costs of wintering spectacled eiders

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Bump, Joseph K.; Lovvorn, James R.

2004-10-01

In polar regions, sea ice is critical habitat for many marine birds and mammals. The quality of pack ice habitat depends on the duration and spacing of leads (openings in the ice), which determine access to water and air for diving endotherms, and how often and how far they must move as leads open and close. Recent warming trends have caused major changes in the extent and nature of sea ice at large scales used in climate models. However, no studies have analyzed lead structure in terms of habitat for ice-dependent endotherms, or effects of climate on ice habitat at scales relevant to their daily movements. Based on observations from an icebreaker and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, we developed methods to describe the dynamics and thermodynamics of lead structure relative to use by spectacled eiders ( Somateria fischeri) wintering in pack ice of the Bering Sea. By correlating lead structure with weather variables, we then used these methods to estimate changes in lead dynamics from 1945 to 2002, and effects of such changes on flight costs of the eiders. For 1991-1992, when images were available about every 3 days throughout winter, SAR images were divided among five weather regimes defined by wind speed, wind direction, and air temperature. Based on 12.5-m pixels, lead shape, compass orientation, and fetch across leads did not differ among the weather regimes. However, the five regimes differed in total area of open water, leads per unit area, and distance between leads. Lead duration was modeled based on air temperature, wind, and fetch. Estimates of mean daily flight time for eiders, based on lead duration and distance between neighboring leads, differed among regimes by 0 to 15 min. Resulting flight costs varied from 0 to 158 kJ day -1, or from 0% to 11% of estimated field metabolic rate. Over 57 winters (1945-2002), variation among years in mean daily flight time was most influenced by the north-south wind component, which determined pack divergence

New winter hardy winter bread wheat cultivar (Triticum aestivum L. Voloshkova

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Л. М. Голик

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Creation of Initial raw for breeding of winter wheat by change of the development type under low temperatures influence was described. Seeds of spring wheat were vernalized in aluminum weighting bottle. By using low temperatures at sawing of M2-6 at the begin ind of optimal terms of sawing of winter wheat, new winter-hardy variety of Voloshkova was bred.

33 CFR 100.109 - Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. 100.109 Section 100.109 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.109 Winter Harbor...

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Twentieth-century warming and the dendroclimatology of declining yellow-cedar forests in southeastern Alaska

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beier, C.M. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Biology and Wildlife; Sink, S.E.; Juday, G.P. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Hennon, P.E.; D' Amore, D.V. [United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Juneau, AK (United States). Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory

2008-06-15

The decline of yellow cedar in temperate rainforests in southeastern Alaska was investigated. Dieback of the species has been observed as early as 1909. The dehardening process for the species is highly temperature-dependent. Declining stands have been found in open-canopy forests on poorly drained sites. Historical climate data sets were compiled suing extensive tree-ring chronologies. The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that a specific suite of microclimatic conditions that occur during late winter involving early dehardening, reduced snowpack, and freezing injury are responsible. The assumption was tested by examining regional climatic trends and growth responses of declining cedar populations. Results of the study showed increasing winter temperatures in the region which have resulted in the frequent occurrence of severe thaw-freeze events. Late winter weather was the best predictor of annual growth for surviving trees. Results of the study also verified the impact of elevational gradients of temperature and snow cover on the exposure of the trees to climatic stressors. It was concluded that yellow cedars may continue to decline with continued climatic warming. 36 refs., 6 tabs., 8 figs.

The dynamics in the upper atmospheres of Mars and Titan

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Jared M.

2008-06-01

This thesis explores the dynamics of two terrestrial bodies: Mars and Titan. At Mars, the coupled Mars General Circulation Model - Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MGCM-MTGCM) is employed to investigate the phenomenon known as Mars winter polar warming. At Titan, a new theoretical model, the Titan Global Ionosphere - Thermosphere Model (T-GITM), is developed, based upon previous work by Ridley et al. [2006]. Using this new model, three separate numerical studies quantify the impacts of solar cycle, seasons, and lower boundary zonal winds on the Titan thermosphere structure and dynamics. At Mars, this thesis investigates thermospheric winter polar warming through three major studies: (1) a systematic analysis of vertical dust mixing in the lower atmosphere and its impact upon the dynamics of the lower thermosphere (100-130 km), (2) an interannual investigation utilizing three years of lower atmosphere infrared (IR) dust optical depth data acquired by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument on board Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), and finally (3) a brief study of the MTGCM's response to variations in upward propagating waves and tides from the lower atmosphere. Ultimately, this investigation suggests that an interhemispheric summer-to-winter Hadley circulation, originating in the lower atmosphere and extending into the upper atmosphere, is responsible for thermospheric winter polar warming [ Bell etal. , 2007]. A major branch of this thesis builds upon the previous work of Müller-Wodarg et al. [2000], Müller-Wodarg et al. [2003], M7uuml;ller-Wodarg et al. [2006], and Yelle et al. [2006] as it attempts to explain the structures in Titan's upper atmosphere, between 500-1500 km. Building also upon the recent development of GITM by Ridley et al. [2006], this thesis presents a new theoretical framework, T-GITM. This model is then employed to conduct a series of numerical experiments to quantify the impacts of the solar cycle, the season, and the

Variation in the hindgut microbial communities of the Florida manatee, Trichechus manatus latirostris over winter in Crystal River, Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Merson, Samuel D.; Ouwerkerk, Diane; Gulino, Lisa-Maree; Klieve, Athol; Bonde, Robert K.; Burgess, Elizabeth A.; Lanyon, Janet M.

2014-01-01

The Florida manatee, Trichechus manatus latirostris, is a hindgut-fermenting herbivore. In winter, manatees migrate to warm water overwintering sites where they undergo dietary shifts and may suffer from cold-induced stress. Given these seasonally induced changes in diet, the present study aimed to examine variation in the hindgut bacterial communities of wild manatees overwintering at Crystal River, west Florida. Faeces were sampled from 36 manatees of known sex and body size in early winter when manatees were newly arrived and then in mid-winter and late winter when diet had probably changed and environmental stress may have increased. Concentrations of faecal cortisol metabolite, an indicator of a stress response, were measured by enzyme immunoassay. Using 454-pyrosequencing, 2027 bacterial operational taxonomic units were identified in manatee faeces following amplicon pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene V3/V4 region. Classified sequences were assigned to eight previously described bacterial phyla; only 0.36% of sequences could not be classified to phylum level. Five core phyla were identified in all samples. The majority (96.8%) of sequences were classified as Firmicutes (77.3 ± 11.1% of total sequences) or Bacteroidetes (19.5 ± 10.6%). Alpha-diversity measures trended towards higher diversity of hindgut microbiota in manatees in mid-winter compared to early and late winter. Beta-diversity measures, analysed through permanova, also indicated significant differences in bacterial communities based on the season.

Comprehension of the Electric Polarization as a Function of Low Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Changshi

2017-01-01

Polarization response to warming plays an increasingly important role in a number of ferroelectric memory devices. This paper reports on the theoretical explanation of the relationship between polarization and temperature. According to the Fermi-Dirac distribution, the basic property of electric polarization response to temperature in magnetoelectric multiferroic materials is theoretically analyzed. The polarization in magnetoelectric multiferroic materials can be calculated by low temperature using a phenomenological theory suggested in this paper. Simulation results revealed that the numerically calculated results are in good agreement with experimental results of some inhomogeneous multiferroic materials. Numerical simulations have been performed to investigate the influences of both electric and magnetic fields on the polarization in magnetoelectric multiferroic materials. Furthermore, polarization behavior of magnetoelectric multiferroic materials can be predicted by low temperature, electric field and magnetic induction using only one function. The calculations offer an insight into the understanding of the effects of heating and magnetoelectric field on electrical properties of multiferroic materials and offer a potential to use similar methods to analyze electrical properties of other memory devices.

Polarization Studies in Fast-Ion Beam Spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trabert, E

2001-01-01

In a historical review, the observations and the insight gained from polarization studies of fast ions interacting with solid targets are presented. These began with J. Macek's recognition of zero-field quantum beats in beam-foil spectroscopy as indicating alignment, and D.G. Ellis' density operator analysis that suggested the observability of orientation when using tilted foils. Lastly H. Winter's studies of the ion-beam surface interaction at grazing incidence yielded the means to produce a high degree of nuclear orientation in ion beams

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

OpenAIRE

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatmen...

Simulated warm polar currents during the middle Permian

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winguth, A M.E.; Kutzbach, J E [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (USA). Center for Climatic Research; Heinze, C; Maier-Reimer, E; Mikolajewicz, U [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Rowley, D; Rees, A; Ziegler, A M [Chicago Univ., IL (United States). Dept. of Geophysical Sciences

2001-05-01

During Permian Stage 6 (Wordian, Kazanian) the Pangaean supercontinent was surrounded by a superocean - Panthalassa. An ocean general circulation model has been coupled to an atmospheric energy balance model to simulate the sensitivity of the Wordian climate ({proportional_to}265 million years ago) to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, high latitude geography, and Earth orbital configurations. The model shows a high sensitivity of the ocean circulation to changes in the greenhouse gas forcing, ranging from a forceful southern circulation at low CO{sub 2} concentration (present level) to a more symmetric circulation cell with deep water formation in both hemispheres at high CO{sub 2} concentration (8 x present level). The simulated climate with 4 x present level CO{sub 2} concentration agrees generally well with climate-sensitive sediments and phytogeographic patterns. In this experiment, the model simulates strong subtropical gyres with similarities to the modern South Pacific circulation and moderate surface temperatures on the southern continent Gondwana, resulting from a strong poleward heat transport in the ocean. An even more moderate climate can be generated if high latitude land is removed so that ocean currents can penetrate into the polar regions or if orbital configurations favor high summer insolation over Gondwana. (orig.)

Polar cap electric field structures with a northward interplanetary magnetic field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burke, W.J.; Kelley, M.C.; Sagalyn, R.C.; Smiddy, M.; Lai, S.T.

1979-01-01

Polar cap electric fields patterns are presented from times when the S3-2 Satellite was near the dawn-dusk meridian and IMF data were available. With B/sub z/> or =0.7γ, two characteristic types of electric field patterns were measured in the polar cap. In the sunlit polar cap the convection pattern usually consisted of four cells. Two of the cells were confined to the polar cap with sunward convection in the central portion of the cap. The other pair of cells were marked by anti-sunward flow along the flanks of the polar cap and by sunward flow in the auroral oval. These observations are interpreted in terms of a model for magnetic merging at the poleward wall of the dayside polar cusp. The sunward flow in the auroral zone is not predicted by the magnetic model and may be due to a viscous interaction between the solar wind and and magnetosphere. The second type, which was observed in some of the summer hemisphere passes and all of the winter ones, was characterized by an electric field pattern which was very turbulent, and may be related to inhomogeneous merging

Lightning Evolution In Two North Central Florida Summer Multicell Storms and Three Winter/Spring Frontal Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Caicedo, J. A.; Uman, M. A.; Pilkey, J. T.

2018-01-01

We present the first lightning evolution studies, via the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and radar, performed in North Central Florida. Parts of three winter/spring frontal storms (cold season) and two complete summer (warm season) multicell storms are studied. Storm parameters measured are as follows: total number of flashes, flash-type classification, first flashes, flash initiation altitude, flash initiation power, flash rate (flashes per minute), charge structure, altitude and temperature ranges of the inferred charge regions, atmospheric isotherm altitude, radar base reflectivity (dBZ), and radar echo tops (EET). Several differences were found between summer multicell and winter/spring frontal storms in North Central Florida: (1) in winter/spring storms, the range of altitudes that all charge regions occupy is up to 1 km lower in altitude than in summer storms, as are the 0°C, -10°C, and -20°C isotherms; (2) lightning activity in summer storms is highly correlated with changes in radar signatures, in particular, echo tops; and (3) the LMA average initiation power of all flash types in winter/frontal storms is about an order of magnitude larger than that for summer storms. In relation to storms in other geographical locations, North Central Florida seasonal storms were found to have similarities in most parameters studied with a few differences, examples in Florida being (1) colder initiation altitudes for intracloud flashes, (2) charge regions occupying larger ranges of atmospheric temperatures, and (3) winter/spring frontal storms not having much lightning activity in the stratiform region.

Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Kenan; Yang, Xiaoguang; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen; Liu, Zhijuan; Lu, Shuo

2016-01-01

Understanding how changing climate and cultivars influence crop phenology and potential yield is essential for crop adaptation to future climate change. In this study, crop and daily weather data collected from six sites across the North China Plain were used to drive a crop model to analyze the impacts of climate change and cultivar development on the phenology and production of winter wheat from 1981 to 2005. Results showed that both the growth period (GP) and the vegetative growth period (VGP) decreased during the study period, whereas changes in the reproductive growth period (RGP) either increased slightly or had no significant trend. Although new cultivars could prolong the winter wheat phenology (0.3∼3.8 days per decade for GP), climate warming impacts were more significant and mainly accounted for the changes. The harvest index and kernel number per stem weight have significantly increased. Model simulation indicated that the yield of winter wheat exhibited increases (5.0∼19.4%) if new cultivars were applied. Climate change demonstrated a negative effect on winter wheat yield as suggested by the simulation driven by climate data only (-3.3 to -54.8 kg ha(-1) year(-1), except for Lushi). Results of this study also indicated that winter wheat cultivar development can compensate for the negative effects of future climatic change.

Statistical polarization in greenhouse gas emissions: Theory and evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Remuzgo, Lorena; Trueba, Carmen

2017-01-01

The current debate on climate change is over whether global warming can be limited in order to lessen its impacts. In this sense, evidence of a decrease in the statistical polarization in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could encourage countries to establish a stronger multilateral climate change agreement. Based on the interregional and intraregional components of the multivariate generalised entropy measures (Maasoumi, 1986), Gigliarano and Mosler (2009) proposed to study the statistical polarization concept from a multivariate view. In this paper, we apply this approach to study the evolution of such phenomenon in the global distribution of the main GHGs. The empirical analysis has been carried out for the time period 1990–2011, considering an endogenous grouping of countries (Aghevli and Mehran, 1981; Davies and Shorrocks, 1989). Most of the statistical polarization indices showed a slightly increasing pattern that was similar regardless of the number of groups considered. Finally, some policy implications are commented. - Highlights: • We study the evolution of global polarization in GHG emissions. • We consider the four main GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O and F-gases. • We use the multidimensional polarization indices (). • We consider an endogenous grouping of countries (). • Most of the polarization indices showed a slightly increasing pattern.

Monstrous Ice Cloud System in Titan's Present South Polar Stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Carrie; Samuelson, Robert; McLain, Jason; Achterberg, Richard; Flasar, F. Michael; Milam, Stefanie

2015-11-01

During southern autumn when sunlight was still available, Cassini's Imaging Science Subsystem discovered a cloud around 300 km near Titan's south pole (West, R. A. et al., AAS/DPS Abstracts, 45, #305.03, 2013); the cloud was later determined by Cassini's Visible and InfraRed Mapping Spectrometer to contain HCN ice (de Kok et al., Nature, 514, pp 65-67, 2014). This cloud has proven to be only the tip of an extensive ice cloud system contained in Titan's south polar stratosphere, as seen through the night-vision goggles of Cassini's Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS). As the sun sets and the gloom of southern winter approaches, evidence is beginning to accumulate from CIRS far-IR spectra that a massive system of nitrile ice clouds is developing in Titan's south polar stratosphere. Even during the depths of northern winter, nothing like the strength of this southern system was evident in corresponding north polar regions.From the long slant paths that are available from limb-viewing CIRS far-IR spectra, we have the first definitive detection of the ν6 band of cyanoacetylene (HC3N) ice in Titan’s south polar stratosphere. In addition, we also see a strong blend of nitrile ice lattice vibration features around 160 cm-1. From these data we are able to derive ice abundances. The most prominent (and still chemically unidentified) ice emission feature, the Haystack, (at 220 cm-1) is also observed. We establish the vertical distributions of the ice cloud systems associated with both the 160 cm-1 feature and the Haystack. The ultimate aim is to refine the physical and possibly the chemical relationships between the two. Transmittance thin film spectra of nitrile ice mixtures obtained in our Spectroscopy for Planetary ICes Environments (SPICE) laboratory are used to support these analyses.

Climatology of winter transition days for the contiguous USA, 1951-2007

Science.gov (United States)

Hondula, David M.; Davis, Robert E.

2011-01-01

In middle and high latitudes, climate change could impact the frequency and characteristics of frontal passages. Although transitions between air masses are significant features of the general circulation that influence human activities and other surface processes, they are much more difficult to objectively identify than single variables like temperature or even extreme events like fires, droughts, and floods. The recently developed Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) provides a fairly objective means of identifying frontal passages. In this research, we determine the specific meteorological patterns represented by the SSC's Transition category, a "catch-all" group that attempts to identify those days that cannot be characterized as a single, homogeneous air mass type. The result is a detailed transition climatology for the continental USA. We identify four subtypes of the Transition category based on intra-day sea level pressure change and dew point temperature change. Across the contiguous USA, most transition days are identified as cold fronts and warm fronts during the winter season. Among the two less common subtypes, transition days in which the dew point temperature and pressure both rise are more frequently observed across the western states, and days in which both variables fall are more frequently observed in coastal regions. The relative frequencies of wintertime warm and cold fronts have changed over the period 1951-2007. Relative cold front frequency has significantly increased in the Northeast and Midwest regions, and warm front frequencies have declined in the Midwest, Rocky Mountain, and Pacific Northwest regions. The overall shift toward cold fronts and away from warm fronts across the northern USA arises from a combination of an enhanced ridge over western North America and a northward shift of storm tracks throughout the mid-latitudes. These results are consistent with projections of climate change associated with elevated greenhouse gas

Holocene climate variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Weldeab

2013-10-01

Full Text Available We established a multi-proxy time series comprising analyses of major elements in bulk sediments, Sr and Nd isotopes, grain size of terrigenous fraction, and δ18O and δ13C in tests of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral from a marine sediment sequence recovered off the Orange River. The records reveal coherent patterns of variability that reflect changes in wind strength, precipitation over the river catchments, and upwelling of cold and nutrient-rich coastal waters off western South Africa. The wettest episode of the Holocene in the winter rainfall zone (WRZ of South Africa occurred during the "Little Ice Age" (700–100 cal years BP most likely in response to a northward shift of the austral westerlies. Wet phases and strengthened coastal water upwellings are companied by a decrease of Agulhas water leakage into the South Atlantic and a reduced dust incursion over Antarctica, as indicated in previous studies. A continuous aridification trend in the WRZ and a weakening of the southern Benguela Upwelling System (BUS between 9000 and 5500 cal years BP parallel with increase of dust deposition over Antarctica and an enhanced leakage of warm Agulhas water into the eastern South Atlantic. The temporal relationship between precipitation changes in the WRZ, the thermal state of the coastal surface water, and leakage of warm water in the South Atlantic, and variation of dust incursion over Antarctica suggests a causal link that most likely was related to latitudinal shifts of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Our results of the mid-Holocene time interval may serve as an analogue to a possible long-term consequence of the current and future southward shift of the westerlies. Furthermore, warming of the coastal surface water as a result of warm Agulhas water incursion into the southern BUS may affect coastal fog formation.

Identifying the Molecular Origin of Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Bera, Partha P.; Francisco, Joseph S.; Lee, Timothy J.

2009-01-01

We have investigated the physical characteristics of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to assess which properties are most important in determining the efficiency of a GHG. Chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), nitrogen fluorides, and various other known atmospheric trace molecules have been included in this study. Compounds containing the halogens F or Cl have in common very polar X-F or X-Cl bonds, particularly the X-F bonds. It is shown that as more F atoms bond to the same central atom, the bond dipoles become larger as a result of the central atom becoming more positive. This leads to a linear increase in the total or integrated XF bond dipole derivatives for the molecule, which leads to a non-linear (quadratic) increase in infrared (IR) intensity. Moreover, virtually all of the X-F bond stretches occur in the atmospheric IR window as opposed to X-H stretches, which do not occur in the atmospheric window. It is concluded that molecules possessing several F atoms will always have a large radiative forcing parameter in the calculation of their global warming potential. Some of the implications for global warming and climate change are discussed.

Possible climate warming effects on vegetation, forests, biotic (insect, pathogene) disturbances and agriculture in Central Siberia for 1960- 2050

Science.gov (United States)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Soja, A. J.; Lysanova, G. I.; Baranchikov, Y. N.; Kuzmina, N. A.

2012-04-01

Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last half a century (1960-2010). Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3°C warmer in the north and 1-2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1-2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Our goal was to summarize results of research we have done for the last decade in the context of climate warming and its consequences for biosystems in Central Siberia. We modeled climate change effects on vegetation shifts, on forest composition and agriculture change, on the insect Siberian moth (Dendrolimus suprans sibiricus Tschetv) and pathogene (Lophodermium pinastri Chev) ranges in Central Siberia for a century (1960-2050) based on historical climate data and GCM-predicted data. Principal results are: In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over 50% of central Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats; At least half of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture at the end of the century although potential croplands would be limited by the availability of suitable soils agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming Crop production may twofold increase as climate warms during the century; traditional crops (grain, potato

The penalty of a long, hot summer. Photosynthetic acclimation to high CO2 and continuous light in "living fossil" conifers.

Science.gov (United States)

Osborne, Colin P; Beerling, David J

2003-10-01

Deciduous forests covered the ice-free polar regions 280 to 40 million years ago under warm "greenhouse" climates and high atmospheric pCO2. Their deciduous habit is frequently interpreted as an adaptation for minimizing carbon losses during winter, but experiments with "living fossils" in a simulated warm polar environment refute this explanation. Measured carbon losses through leaf abscission of deciduous trees are significantly greater than losses through winter respiration in evergreens, yet annual rates of primary productivity are similar in all species. Here, we investigate mechanisms underlying this apparent paradox by measuring the seasonal patterns of leaf photosynthesis (A) under pCO2 enrichment in the same trees. During spring, A increased significantly in coastal redwood (Sequoia sempervirens), dawn redwood (Metasequoia glyptostroboides), and swamp cypress (Taxodium distichum) at an elevated pCO2 of 80 Pa compared with controls at 40 Pa. However, strong acclimation in Rubisco carboxylation capacity (Vc,max) completely offset the CO2 response of A in all species by the end of 6 weeks of continuous illumination in the simulated polar summer. Further measurements demonstrated the temporary nature of acclimation, with increases in Vc,max during autumn restoring the CO2 sensitivity of A. Contrary to expectations, the acclimation of Vc,max was not always accompanied by accumulation of leaf carbohydrates, but was associated with a decline in leaf nitrogen in summer, suggesting an alteration of the balance in plant sources and sinks for carbon and nitrogen. Preliminary calculations using A indicated that winter carbon losses through deciduous leaf abscission and respiration were recovered by 10 to 25 d of canopy carbon fixation during summer, thereby explaining the productivity paradox.

The Penalty of a Long, Hot Summer. Photosynthetic Acclimation to High CO2 and Continuous Light in “Living Fossil” Conifers1

Science.gov (United States)

Osborne, Colin P.; Beerling, David J.

2003-01-01

Deciduous forests covered the ice-free polar regions 280 to 40 million years ago under warm “greenhouse” climates and high atmospheric pCO2. Their deciduous habit is frequently interpreted as an adaptation for minimizing carbon losses during winter, but experiments with “living fossils” in a simulated warm polar environment refute this explanation. Measured carbon losses through leaf abscission of deciduous trees are significantly greater than losses through winter respiration in evergreens, yet annual rates of primary productivity are similar in all species. Here, we investigate mechanisms underlying this apparent paradox by measuring the seasonal patterns of leaf photosynthesis (A) under pCO2 enrichment in the same trees. During spring, A increased significantly in coastal redwood (Sequoia sempervirens), dawn redwood (Metasequoia glyptostroboides), and swamp cypress (Taxodium distichum) at an elevated pCO2 of 80 Pa compared with controls at 40 Pa. However, strong acclimation in Rubisco carboxylation capacity (Vc,max) completely offset the CO2 response of A in all species by the end of 6 weeks of continuous illumination in the simulated polar summer. Further measurements demonstrated the temporary nature of acclimation, with increases in Vc,max during autumn restoring the CO2 sensitivity of A. Contrary to expectations, the acclimation of Vc,max was not always accompanied by accumulation of leaf carbohydrates, but was associated with a decline in leaf nitrogen in summer, suggesting an alteration of the balance in plant sources and sinks for carbon and nitrogen. Preliminary calculations using A indicated that winter carbon losses through deciduous leaf abscission and respiration were recovered by 10 to 25 d of canopy carbon fixation during summer, thereby explaining the productivity paradox. PMID:12972654

Polar-Direct-Drive Experiments on OMEGA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marshall, F.J.; Craxton, R.S.; Bonino, M.J.; Epstein, R.; Glebov, V.Yu.; Jacobs-Perkins, D.; Knauer, J.P.; Marozas, J.A.; McKenty, P.W.; Noyes, S.G.; Radha, P.B.; Seka, W.; Skupsky, S.; Smalyuk

2006-01-01

Polar direct drive (PDD), a promising ignition path for the NIF while the beams are in the indirect-drive configuration, is currently being investigated on the OMEGA laser system by using 40 beams in six rings repointed to more uniformly illuminate the target. The OMEGA experiments are being performed with standard, ''warm'' targets with and without the use of an equatorial ''Saturn-like'' toroidally shaped CH ring. Target implosion symmetry is diagnosed with framed x-ray backlighting using additional OMEGA beams and by time-integrated x-ray imaging of the stagnating core

Polar bears: the fate of an icon.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzgerald, Kevin T

2013-11-01

Polar bears are one of the most iconic animals on our planet. Worldwide, even people who would never see one are drawn to these charismatic arctic ice hunters. They are the world's largest terrestrial carnivore, and despite being born on land, they spend most of their lives out on the sea ice and are considered a marine mammal. Current global studies estimate there are around 20,000 animals in some 19 discrete circumpolar populations. Aside from pregnant females denning in the winter months to give birth, the white bears do not hibernate. They spend their winters on the sea ice hunting seals, an activity they are spectacularly adapted for. Research on these animals is incredibly difficult because of the inhospitable surroundings they inhabit and how inaccessible they make the bears. For many years, the sum of our understanding of the natural history of polar bears came from tracks, scats, the remains of their kills, abandoned dens, and anecdotal observations of native hunters, explorers, and early biologists. Nonetheless, the last 40 years have seen a much better picture of their biology emerge thanks to, first, dedicated Canadian researchers and, later, truly international efforts of workers from many countries. Veterinarians have contributed to our knowledge of the bears by delivering and monitoring anesthesia, obtaining blood samples, performing necropsies, investigating their reproduction, conducting radiotelemetry studies, and examining their behavior. Recently, new technologies have been developed that revolutionize the study of the lives and natural history of undisturbed polar bears. These advances include better satellite radiotelemetry equipment and the development of remote-controlled miniature devices equipped with high-definition cameras. Such new modalities provide dramatic new insights into the life of polar bears. The remarkable degree of specialized adaptation to life on the sea ice that allowed the bears to be successful is the very reason that

Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. N. Musselman

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In a warmer climate, the fraction of annual meltwater produced at high melt rates in mountainous areas is projected to decline due to a contraction of the snow-cover season, causing melt to occur earlier and under lower energy conditions. How snowmelt rates, including extreme events relevant to flood risk, may respond to a range of warming over a mountain front is poorly known. We present a model sensitivity study of snowmelt response to warming across a 3600 m elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, USA. A snow model was run for three distinct years and verified against extensive ground observations. To simulate the impact of climate warming on meltwater production, measured meteorological conditions were modified by +1 to +6 °C. The total annual snow water volume exhibited linear reductions (−10 % °C−1 consistent with previous studies. However, the sensitivity of snowmelt rates to successive degrees of warming varied nonlinearly with elevation. Middle elevations and years with more snowfall were prone to the largest reductions in snowmelt rates, with lesser changes simulated at higher elevations. Importantly, simulated warming causes extreme daily snowmelt (99th percentiles to increase in spatial extent and intensity, and shift from spring to winter. The results offer insight into the sensitivity of mountain snow water resources and how the rate and timing of water availability may change in a warmer climate. The identification of future climate conditions that may increase extreme melt events is needed to address the climate resilience of regional flood control systems.

"Winter of our anxiety" by J. Steinbeck in USSR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhdanova Liya Iskanderovna

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the features of the Soviet reception of the novel by John Steinbeck. «The winter of our anxiety» published in the USSR within the sunset of «thaw» in 1962. Despite the restrained assessment of the novel at its homeland and the general low opinion about the post-war work of Steinbeck, in the USSR «Winter of our anxiety» was accepted very warmly, after the Nobel committee of Soviet critics began to talk about the return of «old times of Steinbeck>s «Grapes of wrath». However, no doubt that the reason for the success of this book in the USSR was not much Steinbeck>s «critics of bourgeois reality», the «American Dream», which commonly was written by the domestic press as guessable Soviet readers parallels between the way the main character of the novel Ethan Allen Hawley, committed them to choose between good and evil, «money and humanity» - and his own life, ambiguous and unstable situation of the creative intelligentsia in the Soviet Union at the beginning of 1960. However, the inability to say publicly about his own doubts and problems that inevitably led to a repetition of the rhetoric of the 1930s reduced the value of the novel «Winter of our anxiety» in denouncing the American way of life. Documentary base article made reviews of the novel members of the editorial board of the magazine «Foreign Literature «, research works by R.D. Orlova «Money against humanity» («Foreign Literature», 1962, № 3 and I.M. Levidova «Postwar books of John Steinbeck» («Questions of Literature», 1962, № 8.

Winter Weather Emergencies

Science.gov (United States)

Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

A Climatology of Polar Stratospheric Cloud Types by MIPAS-Envisat

Science.gov (United States)

Spang, Reinhold; Hoffmann, Lars; Griessbach, Sabine; Orr, Andrew; Höpfner, Michael; Müller, Rolf

2015-04-01

For Chemistry Climate Models (CCM) it is still a challenging task to properly represent the evolution of the polar vortices over the entire winter season. The models usually do not include comprehensive microphysical modules to evolve the formation of different types of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) over the winter. Consequently, predictions on the development and recovery of the future ozone hole have relatively large uncertainties. A climatological record of hemispheric measurement of PSC types could help to better validate and improve the PSC schemes in CCMs. The Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument onboard the ESA Envisat satellite operated from July 2002 to April 2012. The infra-red limb emission measurements compile a unique dataset of day and night measurements of polar stratospheric clouds up to the poles. From the spectral measurements in the 4.15-14.6 microns range it is possible to select a number of atmospheric window regions and spectral signatures to classify PSC cloud types like nitric acid hydrates, sulfuric ternary solution droplets, and ice particles. The cloud detection sensitivity is similar to space borne lidars, but MIPAS adds complementary information due to its different measurement technique (limb instead of nadir) and wavelength region. Here we will describe a new classification method for PSCs based on the combination of multiple brightness temperature differences (BTD) and colour ratios. Probability density functions (PDF) of the MIPAS measurements in conjunction with a database of radiative transfer model calculations of realistic PSC particle size distributions enable the definition of regions attributed to specific or mixed types clouds. Applying a naive bias classifier for independent criteria to all defined classes in four 2D PDF distributions, it is possible to assign the most likely PSC type to any measured cloud spectrum. Statistical Monte Carlo test have been applied to quantify

Human disturbances of denning polar bears in Alaska

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amstrup, S.C.

1993-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) give birth in dens of snow and ice. The altricial neonates cannot leave the den for >2 months post-partum and are potentially vulnerable to disturbances near dens. The coastal plain (1002) area of Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) lies in a region of known polar bear denning and also may contain >9 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Polar bears in dens could be affected in many ways by hydrocarbon development. The distribution of dens on ANWR was documented between 1981 and 1992 and responses of bears in dens to various anthropogenic disturbances were observed. Of 44 dens located by radiotelemetry on the mainland coast of Alaska and Canada, 20 (45%) were on ANWR and 15 (34%) were within the 1002 area. Thus, development of ANWR will increase the potential that denning polar bears are disturbed by human activities. However, perturbations resulting from capture, marking, and radiotracking maternal bears did not affect litter sizes or stature of cubs produced. Likewise, 10 of 12 denned polar bears tolerated exposure to exceptional levels of activity. This tolerance and the fact that investment in the denning effort increases through the winter indicated that spatial and temporal restrictions on developments could prevent the potential for many disruptions of denned bears from being realized. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

Acute gastric dilatation and volvulus in a free-living polar bear

Science.gov (United States)

Amstrup, Steven C.; Nielsen, Carol A.

1989-01-01

A large, adult male polar bear (Ursus maritimus) was found dead on a barrier island north of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska (USA), in June 1987. There were no external signs of trauma. A twisted distended stomach, distinctive parenchymal and fascial congestion, and significant difficulty in repositioning the anterior abdominal organs, indicated that gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) was the proximate cause of death. Polar bears frequently consume large quantities of food at one time and have large stomachs that are well adapted to periodic gorging. The scarcity of food in winter and early spring, combined with voluntary fasting and protracted vigorous activity during the breeding season in late spring may have predisposed this bear to GDV. The relationship between GDV and postprandial exercise emphasizes the need for a better understanding of how the present human invasion of arctic habitats may influence polar bear activities.

Magnetic Field Perturbations from Currents in the Dark Polar Regions During Quiet Geomagnetic Conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friis-Christensen, Eigil; Finlay, Chris; Hesse, M.

2017-01-01

In the day-side sunlit polar ionosphere the varying and IMF dependent convection creates strong ionospheric currents even during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Observations during such times are often excluded when using satellite data to model the internal geomagneticmain field. Observations from...... the night-side or local winter during quiet conditions are, however, also influenced by variations in the IMF. In this paper we briefly review the large scale features of the ionospheric currents in the polar regions with emphasis on the current distribution during undisturbed conditions. We examine...

Storing snow for the next winter: Two case studies on the application of snow farming.

Science.gov (United States)

Grünewald, Thomas; Wolfsperger, Fabian

2016-04-01

Snow farming is the conservation of snow during the warm half-year. This means that large piles of snow are formed in spring in order to be conserved over the summer season. Well-insulating materials such as chipped wood are added as surface cover to reduce melting. The aim of snow farming is to provide a "snow guaranty" for autumn or early winter - this means that a specific amount of snow will definitively be available, independent of the weather conditions. The conserved snow can then be used as basis for the preparation of winter sports grounds such as cross-country tracks or ski runs. This helps in the organization of early winter season sport events such as World Cup races or to provide appropriate training conditions for athletes. We present a study on two snow farming projects, one in Davos (Switzerland) and one in the Martell valley of South Tyrol. At both places snow farming has been used for several years. For the summer season 2015, we monitored both snow piles in order to assess the amount of snow conserved. High resolution terrestrial laser scanning was performed to measure snow volumes of the piles at the beginning and at the end of the summer period. Results showed that only 20% to 30 % of the snow mass was lost due to ablation. This mass loss was surprisingly low considering the extremely warm and dry summer. In order to identify the most relevant drivers of snow melt we also present simulations with the sophisticated snow cover models SNOWPACK and Alpine3D. The simulations are driven by meteorological input data recorded in the vicinity of the piles and enable a detailed analysis of the relevant processes controlling the energy balance. The models can be applied to optimize settings for snow farming and to examine the suitability of new locations, configurations or cover material for future snow farming projects.

Global Warming on Triton

Science.gov (United States)

Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.;

Winter Activity of Coastal Plain Populations of Bat Species Affected by White-Nose Syndrome and Wind Energy Facilities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John F Grider

Full Text Available Across the entire distribution of a species, populations may have variable responses to environmental perturbations. Many bat species experience mortality in large portions of their range during hibernation and along migratory paths to and from wintering grounds, from White-nose syndrome (WNS and wind energy development, respectively. In some areas, warm temperatures may allow bats to remain active through winter, thus decreasing their susceptibility to WNS and/or mortality associated with migration to wintering grounds. These areas could act as a refugia and be important for the persistence of local populations. To determine if warmer temperatures affect bat activity, we compared year-round activity of bat populations in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont of North Carolina, USA, two regions that differ in winter temperature. We established six recording stations, four along a 295-kilometer north-south transect in the Coastal Plain, and two in the Piedmont of North Carolina. We recorded bat activity over two years. We supplemented our recordings with mist-net data. Although bat activity was lower during winter at all sites, the odds of recording a bat during winter were higher at Coastal Plain sites when compared with Piedmont sites. Further, bats in the Piedmont had a lower level of winter activity compared to summer activity than bats in the Coastal Plain that had more similar levels of activity in the winter and summer. We found high bat species richness on the Coastal Plain in winter, with winter-active species including those known to hibernate throughout most of their range and others known to be long distance migrants. In particular, two species impacted by WNS, the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis and tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus, were present year round in the Coastal Plain. The tricolored bat was also present year-round in the Piedmont. In the Coastal Plain, the long distance migratory hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus

Winter Activity of Coastal Plain Populations of Bat Species Affected by White-Nose Syndrome and Wind Energy Facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Grider, John F; Larsen, Angela L; Homyack, Jessica A; Kalcounis-Rueppell, Matina C

2016-01-01

Across the entire distribution of a species, populations may have variable responses to environmental perturbations. Many bat species experience mortality in large portions of their range during hibernation and along migratory paths to and from wintering grounds, from White-nose syndrome (WNS) and wind energy development, respectively. In some areas, warm temperatures may allow bats to remain active through winter, thus decreasing their susceptibility to WNS and/or mortality associated with migration to wintering grounds. These areas could act as a refugia and be important for the persistence of local populations. To determine if warmer temperatures affect bat activity, we compared year-round activity of bat populations in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont of North Carolina, USA, two regions that differ in winter temperature. We established six recording stations, four along a 295-kilometer north-south transect in the Coastal Plain, and two in the Piedmont of North Carolina. We recorded bat activity over two years. We supplemented our recordings with mist-net data. Although bat activity was lower during winter at all sites, the odds of recording a bat during winter were higher at Coastal Plain sites when compared with Piedmont sites. Further, bats in the Piedmont had a lower level of winter activity compared to summer activity than bats in the Coastal Plain that had more similar levels of activity in the winter and summer. We found high bat species richness on the Coastal Plain in winter, with winter-active species including those known to hibernate throughout most of their range and others known to be long distance migrants. In particular, two species impacted by WNS, the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) and tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), were present year round in the Coastal Plain. The tricolored bat was also present year-round in the Piedmont. In the Coastal Plain, the long distance migratory hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) was active in the

The intensity of precipitation during extratropical cyclones in global warming simulations: a link to cyclone intensity?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watterson, I.G. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale (Australia)

2006-01-01

Simulations of global warming over the coming century from two CSIRO GCMs are analysed to assess changes in the intensity of extratropical cyclones, and the potential role of increased latent heating associated with precipitation during cyclones. A simple surface cyclone detection scheme is applied to a four-member ensemble of simulations from the Mark 2 GCM, under rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal distribution of cyclones appears broadly realistic during 1961-1990. By 2071-2100, with 3 K global warming, numbers over 20 deg N to 70 deg N decrease by 6% in winter and 2% annually, with similar results for the south. The average intensity of cyclones, from relative central pressure and other measures, is largely unchanged however. 30-yr extremes of dynamic intensity also show little clear change, including values averaged over continents. Mean rain rates at cyclone centres are typically at least double rates from all days. Rates during cyclones increase by an average 14% in the northern winter under global warming. Rates over adjacent grid squares and during the previous day increase similarly, as do extreme rates. Results from simulations of the higher-resolution (1.8 deg grid) Mark 3 GCM are similar, with widespread increases in rain rates but not in cyclone intensity. The analyses suggest that latent heating during storms increases, as anticipated due to the increased moisture capacity of the warmer atmosphere. However, any role for enhanced heating in storm development in the GCMs is apparently masked by other factors. An exception is a 5% increase in extreme intensity around 55 deg S in Mark 3, despite decreased numbers of lows, a factor assessed using extreme value theory. Further studies with yet higher-resolution models may be needed to examine the potential realism of these results, particularly with regard to extremes at smaller scale.

Nonlinear Response of the Stratosphere and the North Atlantic-European Climate to Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A. Yu.; Kornblueh, L.

2018-05-01

The response of the northern winter atmospheric circulation for two consecutive global warming periods of 2 K is examined in a grand ensemble (68 members) of idealized CO2 increase experiments performed with the same climate model. The comparison of the atmospheric responses for the two periods shows remarkable differences, indicating the nonlinearity of the response. The nonlinear signature of the atmospheric and surface responses is reminiscent of the positive phase of the annular mode of variability. The stratospheric vortex response shifts from an easterly wind change for the first 2 K to a westerly wind change for the second 2 K. The North Atlantic storm track shifts poleward only in the second period. A weaker November Arctic amplification during the second period suggests that differences in Arctic sea ice changes can act to trigger the atmospheric nonlinear response. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling thereafter can provide for the persistence of this nonlinearity throughout the winter.

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

Science.gov (United States)

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

1990-01-01

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Comparison of subjective symptoms and cold prevention measures in winter between traffic control workers and construction workers in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Inaba, Ryoichi; Kurokawa, Junichi; Mirbod, Seyed Mohammad

2009-07-01

To help making comfortable workplaces and to prevent health disorders induced by the exposure to moderate cold in two different groups of out-door workers, we conducted a survey to compare subjective symptoms and cold prevention measures in winter between traffic control workers and construction workers. The subjects of this study were 98 male traffic control workers and 149 male workers engaged in building construction. Work loads of traffic control workers and construction workers were estimated at RMR1-2 and RMR2-4, respectively. All subjects were asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire covering age, occupational career, working figure, present illness, past history of diseases, individual preventive measures to the cold, subjective symptoms in the winter (43 items) and subjective symptoms occurred during daytime working in the winter (6 items). In two parts of the construction workplaces (the place where a morning assembly was held and on the 7th floor of the construction site) dry bulb, wet bulb and globe temperatures were measured in January. Windchill Index (kcal/cm,(2) x h) was calculated by the measured dry bulb temperature and wind velocity. Mean values of dry bulb temperature between 9:00 and 16:30 in the place where a morning assembly was held for three days were between 4.8 +/- 1.2 degrees C at 9:00 am and 9.3 +/- 1.1 degrees C at noon. Mean values of Windchill Index in the place where a morning assembly was held were between 490.8+/-23.9 kcal/cm(2) x h at 9:30 am and 608.2+/-47.3 kcal/cm(2) x h at 2:30 pm. Occupational career, monthly working days, daily working hours, one way commuting hours, and daily smoking numbers of the traffic control workers were significantly shorter than the construction workers (pconstruction workers (0.7%). Prevalence of wearing a warm underwear, body warmer, warm trousers, underpants, warm socks, shoe warmer and muffler in the traffic control workers were significantly higher than the construction workers. The

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2014-01-01

The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

2015-06-01

Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Next Generation Polar Seismic Instrumentation Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, T.; Beaudoin, B. C.; Gridley, J.; Anderson, K. R.

2011-12-01

Polar region logistics are the limiting factor for deploying deep field seismic arrays. The IRIS PASSCAL Instrument Center, in collaboration with UNAVCO, designed and deployed several systems that address some of the logistical constraints of polar deployments. However, continued logistics' pressures coupled with increasingly ambitious science projects require further reducing the logistics required for deploying both summer and over winter stations. Our focus is to reduce station power requirements and bulk, thereby minimizing the time and effort required to deploy these arrays. We will reduce the weight of the battery bank by incorporating the most applicable new high energy-density battery technology. Using these batteries will require a completely new power management system along with an appropriate smart enclosure. The other aspect will be to integrate the digitizing system with the sensor. Both of these technologies should reduce the install time and shipping volume plus weight while reducing some instrument costs. We will also continue work on an effective Iridium telemetry solution for automated data return. The costs and limitations of polar deep-field science easily justifies a specialized development effort but pays off doubly in that we will continue to leverage the advancements in reduced logistics and increased performance for the benefit of low-latitude seismic research.

Polar ocean stratification in a cold climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Haug, Gerald H

2004-03-04

The low-latitude ocean is strongly stratified by the warmth of its surface water. As a result, the great volume of the deep ocean has easiest access to the atmosphere through the polar surface ocean. In the modern polar ocean during the winter, the vertical distribution of temperature promotes overturning, with colder water over warmer, while the salinity distribution typically promotes stratification, with fresher water over saltier. However, the sensitivity of seawater density to temperature is reduced as temperature approaches the freezing point, with potential consequences for global ocean circulation under cold climates. Here we present deep-sea records of biogenic opal accumulation and sedimentary nitrogen isotopic composition from the Subarctic North Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean. These records indicate that vertical stratification increased in both northern and southern high latitudes 2.7 million years ago, when Northern Hemisphere glaciation intensified in association with global cooling during the late Pliocene epoch. We propose that the cooling caused this increased stratification by weakening the role of temperature in polar ocean density structure so as to reduce its opposition to the stratifying effect of the vertical salinity distribution. The shift towards stratification in the polar ocean 2.7 million years ago may have increased the quantity of carbon dioxide trapped in the abyss, amplifying the global cooling.

Global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

Effect of soil warming and rainfall patterns on soil N cycling in northern Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Patil, Raveendra Hanumantagoud; Lægdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

2010-01-01

. These changes may affect soil moisture regimes, soil water drainage, soil nitrogen (N) availability and N leaching to aquatic environment and N2O emissions to atmosphere. Thus it is important to study the effects of increased soil temperature and varying rainfall patterns on soil N cycling in arable land from...... temperate climates, which is a major source of N pollution. An open-field lysimeter study was carried out during 2008-2009 in Denmark on loamy sand soil (Typic Hapludult) with three factors: number of rainy days, rainfall amount and soil warming. Number of rainy days included the mean monthly rainy days...... by 5 °C at 0.1 m depth as ‘heated' and non-heated as ‘control' treatments. Automated mobile rain-out shelter and irrigation system, and insulated buried heating cables were used to impose the treatments. Soil warming, compared with unheated control, advanced winter wheat crop development, and increased...

Statistical polarization in greenhouse gas emissions: Theory and evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Remuzgo, Lorena; Trueba, Carmen

2017-11-01

The current debate on climate change is over whether global warming can be limited in order to lessen its impacts. In this sense, evidence of a decrease in the statistical polarization in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could encourage countries to establish a stronger multilateral climate change agreement. Based on the interregional and intraregional components of the multivariate generalised entropy measures (Maasoumi, 1986), Gigliarano and Mosler (2009) proposed to study the statistical polarization concept from a multivariate view. In this paper, we apply this approach to study the evolution of such phenomenon in the global distribution of the main GHGs. The empirical analysis has been carried out for the time period 1990-2011, considering an endogenous grouping of countries (Aghevli and Mehran, 1981; Davies and Shorrocks, 1989). Most of the statistical polarization indices showed a slightly increasing pattern that was similar regardless of the number of groups considered. Finally, some policy implications are commented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of northern Eurasian snow cover in autumn on the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern during the following January and its linkage to stationary planetary waves

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xinping; He, Shengping; Li, Fei; Wang, Huijun

2018-03-01

The connection between Eurasian snow cover (SC) in autumn and Eurasian winter mean surface air temperature (SAT) has been identified by many studies. However, some recent observations indicate that early and late winter climate sometimes shows an out-of-phase relationship, suggesting that the winter mean situation might obscure the important relationships that are relevant for scientific research and applications. This study investigates the relationship between October northern Eurasian SC (NESC; 58°-68°N, 30°-90°E) and Eurasian SAT during the winter months and finds a significant relationship only exists in January. Generally, following reduced October NESC, the East Asian trough and Ural high are intensified in January, and anomalous northeasterly winds prevail in mid-latitudes, causing cold anomalies over Eurasia. Meanwhile, anomalous southwesterly winds along the northern fringe of the Ural high favor warm anomalies in the Arctic. The dynamical mechanism for the connection between NESC in October and the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) anomaly in January is further investigated from the perspective of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity. It is found that planetary waves with zonal wavenumber-1 (ZWN1) play a dominant role in this process. Specifically, the ZWN1 pattern of planetary-scale waves concurrent with October NESC anomaly extends from the surface to the upper-stratosphere. It persists in the stratosphere through November-December and propagates downward to the surface by the following January, making the connection between October NESC and January climate possible. Additionally, the influence of October NESC on the January WACE pattern has intensified since the early-2000s.

Defining Winter and Identifying Synoptic Air Mass Change in the Northeast and Northern Plains U.S. since 1950

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, C. J.; Pennington, D.; Beitscher, M. R.; Godek, M. L.

2017-12-01

Understanding and forecasting the characteristics of winter weather change in the northern U.S. is vital to regional economy, agriculture, tourism and resident life. This is especially true in the Northeast and Northern Plains where substantial changes to the winter season have already been documented in the atmospheric science and biological literature. As there is no single established definition of `winter', this research attempts to identify the winter season in both regions utilizing a synoptic climatological approach with air mass frequencies. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is used to determine the daily air mass/ weather type conditions since 1950 at 40 locations across the two regions. Annual frequencies are first computed as a baseline reference. Then winter air mass frequencies and departures from normal are calculated to define the season along with the statistical significance. Once the synoptic winter is established, long-term regional changes to the season and significance are explored. As evident global changes have occurred after 1975, an Early period of years prior to 1975 and a Late set for all years following this date are compared. Early and Late record synoptic changes are then examined to assess any thermal and moisture condition changes of the regional winter air masses over time. Cold to moderately dry air masses dominate annually in both regions. Northeast winters are also characterized by cold to moderate dry air masses, with coastal locations experiencing more Moist Polar types. The Northern Plains winters are dominated by cold, dry air masses in the east and cold to moderate dry air masses in the west. Prior to 1975, Northeast winters are defined by an increase in cooler and wetter air masses. Dry Tropical air masses only occur in this region after 1975. Northern Plains winters are also characterized by more cold, dry air masses prior to 1975. More Dry Moderate and Moist Moderate air masses have occurred since 1975. These results

Preparing for polar-drive ignition on the National Ignition Facility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

McKenty P.W.

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The implementation of polar drive (PD at the National Ignition Facility (NIF will enable the execution of direct-drive implosions while the facility is configured for x-ray drive. The Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE, in collaboration with LLNL, LANL and GA, is implementing PD on the NIF. LLE has designed and participates in the use of PD implosions for diagnostic commissioning on the NIF. LLE has an active experimental campaign to develop PD in both warm and cryogenic target experiments on OMEGA. LLE and its partners are developing a Polar Drive Project Execution Plan, which will provide a detailed outline of the requirements, resources, and timetable leading to PD-ignition experiments on the NIF.

Partisan differences in the relationship between newspaper coverage and concern over global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xiaoquan; Rolfe-Redding, Justin; Kotcher, John E

2016-07-01

The effects of news media on public opinion about global warming have been a topic of much interest in both academic and popular discourse. Empirical evidence in this regard, however, is still limited and somewhat mixed. This study used data from the 2006 General Social Survey in combination with a content analysis of newspaper coverage of the same time period to examine the relationship between general news climate and public concern about global warming. Results showed a pattern of political polarization, with increased coverage associated with growing divergence between Democrats and Republicans. Further analysis also showed evidence of reactivity in partisan response to coverage from different news outlets. These findings point to a particular form of politically motivated, biased processing of news information. © The Author(s) 2014.

Recent Intensified Winter Coldness in the Mid-High Latitudes of Eurasia and Its Relationship with Daily Extreme Low Temperature Variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuhan Lu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Observational records in recent decades show a large-scale decrease in the cold-season temperature variance in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes under continuous global warming. However, severe low temperature events in winter frequently occurred in midlatitude Eurasia (MEA in the last decade. Here, we define a new coldness intensity (CI index for the near-surface based on the amplitude of daily anomalously cold temperatures in winter to demonstrate the CI of the variability of low temperature extremes. The results show that a sign-consistent mode dominates the CI variation in MEA, with a marked intensification during the last decade via empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis. This leading mode is significantly related to the frequency of winter extreme events. The associated circulations are characterized by a remarkable anomalous anticyclone in Northwest Eurasia, which induced substantial cold advection in MEA. The widespread intensified CI in MEA is closely linked with strong surface anticyclones and synoptic blocking in the mid-high latitudes (25°E–85°E. Coincidently, positive phase shifts of the first two leading modes of the extratropical circulation, which feature similar blocking-like anomalies in the northwestern Eurasian subarctic, jointly play an important role in the recent frequency of severe winters.

Effects of dirty snow in nuclear winter simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vogelmann, A.M.; Robock, A.; Ellingson, R.G.

1988-01-01

A large-scale nuclear war would inject smoke into the atmosphere from burning forests, cities, and industries in targeted areas. This smoke could fall out onto snow and ice and would lower cryospheric albedos by as much as 50%. A global energy balance climate model is used to investigate the maximum effect these ''dirty snow'' albedos have on the surface temperature in nuclear winter simulations which span several years. These effects are investigated for different nuclear winter scenarios, snow precipitation rates, latitudinal distributions of smoke, and seasonal timings. We find that dirty snow, in general, would have a small temperature effect at mid- and low latitudes but could have a large temperature effect at polar latitudes, particularly if the soot is able to reappear significantly in later summers. Factors which limit the climatic importance of the dirty snow are (1) the dirty snow albedo is lowest when the atmosphere still contains a large amount of light-absorbing smoke; (2) even with dirty snow, sea ice areas can still increase, which helps maintain colder temperatures through the sea ice thermal inertial feedback; (3) the snow and ice areas affected by the dirty snow albedos are largest when there is little seasonal solar insolation; and (4) the area affected by the dirty snow is relatively small under all circumstances. copyright American Geophysical Union 1988

Impacts of warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in a typical tropical marine ecosystem

KAUST Repository

Gittings, John; Raitsos, Dionysios E.; Krokos, George; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2018-01-01

In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998-2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms.

Impacts of warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in a typical tropical marine ecosystem

KAUST Repository

Gittings, John

2018-01-29

In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998-2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms.

Stationary Planetary Waves in the Mars Winter Atmosphere as seen by the Radio Science Experiment MaRS on Mars Express