WorldWideScience

Sample records for wildfire ignition risk

  1. Some Wildfire Ignition Causes Pose More Risk of Destroying Houses than Others.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Kathryn M; Penman, Trent D; Price, Owen F

    2016-01-01

    Many houses are at risk of being destroyed by wildfires. While previous studies have improved our understanding of how, when and why houses are destroyed by wildfires, little attention has been given to how these fires started. We compiled a dataset of wildfires that destroyed houses in New South Wales and Victoria and, by comparing against wildfires where no houses were destroyed, investigated the relationship between the distribution of ignition causes for wildfires that did and did not destroy houses. Powerlines, lightning and deliberate ignitions are the main causes of wildfires that destroyed houses. Powerlines were 6 times more common in the wildfires that destroyed houses data than in the wildfires where no houses were destroyed data and lightning was 2 times more common. For deliberate- and powerline-caused wildfires, temperature, wind speed, and forest fire danger index were all significantly higher and relative humidity significantly lower (P houses compared with wildfires where no houses were destroyed. For all powerline-caused wildfires the first house destroyed always occurred on the day of ignition. In contrast, the first house destroyed was after the day of ignition for 78% of lightning-caused wildfires. Lightning-caused wildfires that destroyed houses were significantly larger (P houses. Our results suggest that targeting fire prevention strategies around ignition causes, such as improving powerline safety and targeted arson reduction programmes, and reducing fire spread may decrease the number of wildfires that destroy houses.

  2. Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Horses Wildfire virtual field trips Wildfire Risk Reduction Community Service Projects Engaging Youth in Reducing Wildfire Risk report ... NFPA reports on wildfire and articles from NFPA Journal Wildfire training This training, Assessing Structure Ignition Potential ...

  3. WILDFIRE IGNITION RESISTANCE ESTIMATOR WIZARD SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT REPORT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, M.; Robinson, C.; Gupta, N.; Werth, D.

    2012-10-10

    This report describes the development of a software tool, entitled “WildFire Ignition Resistance Estimator Wizard” (WildFIRE Wizard, Version 2.10). This software was developed within the Wildfire Ignition Resistant Home Design (WIRHD) program, sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Infrastructure Protection & Disaster Management Division. WildFIRE Wizard is a tool that enables homeowners to take preventive actions that will reduce their home’s vulnerability to wildfire ignition sources (i.e., embers, radiant heat, and direct flame impingement) well in advance of a wildfire event. This report describes the development of the software, its operation, its technical basis and calculations, and steps taken to verify its performance.

  4. Wildfire ignition resistant home design(WIRHD) program: Full-scale testing and demonstration final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quarles, Stephen, L.; Sindelar, Melissa

    2011-12-13

    The primary goal of the Wildfire ignition resistant home design(WIRHD) program was to develop a home evaluation tool that could assess the ignition potential of a structure subjected to wildfire exposures. This report describes the tests that were conducted, summarizes the results, and discusses the implications of these results with regard to the vulnerabilities to homes and buildings.

  5. Modeling the Spatial Pattern of Wildfire Ignition and Burned Area in Southern Californian Mediterranean Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faivre, N.; Jin, Y.; Goulden, M.; Randerson, J. T.

    2013-12-01

    Wildfire ignition requires a combination of an ignition source and suitable weather and fuel conditions. Models of fire occurrence and burned area provide a good understanding of the physical and climatic factors that constrain and promote fire spread and recurrence, but information on how humans influence ignition patterns and burned area is still lacking at a scale compatible with integrated fire management. We first investigated the relative importance of the physical, climatic, and human factors regulating ignition probability across Southern California. A 30-year exploratory analysis of one-way relationships indicated that distance to roads, distance to housing, and topographic slope were the major determinants of ignition occurrence and frequency. A logistic regression model explained 70% of spatial variability in ignition occurrence (presence or absence of an ignition in each 3 km grid cell) whereas a Poisson-type regression model explained 45% of the spatial variability in ignition frequency in national forests across Southern California. Predicted ignition probability was a key indicator of the spatial variability of burned area, explaining approximately 9% of the variance for Santa Ana fires and 21% of the variance for non-Santa Ana fires across Southern California. In a second step we combined the previous ignition modeling framework with other data sources to model the spatial distribution of burned area. Preliminary results showed that average wind speed alone explained approximately 30% of the spatial variation in burned area from Santa Ana fires. Further integration of the effects of fuel continuity, moisture, and accumulation and their interaction with wind speed and direction improved our spatial assessment of burned area risk in Southern California. Our results may have implications for strategic fire management in the region.

  6. Wildfire risk transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Jessica R; Calkin, David E; Thompson, Matthew P

    2015-02-01

    Wildfires are a global phenomenon that in some circumstances can result in human casualties, economic loss, and ecosystem service degradation. In this article we spatially identify wildfire risk transmission pathways and locate the areas of highest exposure of human populations to wildland fires under severe, but not uncommon, weather events. We quantify varying levels of exposure in terms of population potentially affected and tie the exposure back to the spatial source of the risk for the Front Range of Colorado, USA. We use probabilistic fire simulation modeling to address where fire ignitions are most likely to cause the highest impact to human communities, and to explore the role that various landowners play in that transmission of risk. Our results indicated that, given an ignition and the right fire weather conditions, large areas along the Front Range in Colorado could be exposed to wildfires with high potential to impact human populations, and that overall private ignitions have the potential to impact more people than federal ignitions. These results can be used to identify high-priority areas for wildfire risk mitigation using various mitigation tools. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis Published 2014. This article is a U.S. government work and is in the public domain for the USA.

  7. Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, Alan A; Evers, Cody R; Day, Michelle A; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Barros, Ana M G; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

    2017-01-01

    We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments.

  8. Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan A Ager

    Full Text Available We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments.

  9. Understanding public perspectives of wildfire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah McCaffrey

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, heightened attention to the social dimensions of wildfire has led to increased discussion of wildfire risk. One focus has been on the need to enhance the wildfire risk perception among homeowners living in high fire hazard areas. The underlying supposition is that once they understand risk, homeowners will then take action to reduce their exposure....

  10. Human-ignited wildfire patterns and responses to policy shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. L. Chas-Amil; J. P. Prestemon; C. J. McClean; J. Touza

    2015-01-01

    Development of efficient forest wildfire policies requires an understanding of the underlying reasons behind forest fire occurrences. Globally, there is a close relationship between forest wildfires and human activities; most wildfires are human events due to negligence (e.g., agricultural burning escapes) and deliberate actions (e.g., vandalism, pyromania, revenge,...

  11. The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of tribal land units in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeff Prestemon; David T. Butry; Douglas S. Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Research shows that some categories of human-ignited wildfires may be forecastable, owing to their temporal clustering, with the possibility that resources could be predeployed to help reduce the incidence of such wildfires. We estimated several kinds of incendiary and other human-ignited wildfire forecast models at the weekly time step for tribal land units in the...

  12. Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology

    Science.gov (United States)

    A Paige Fischer; Thomas A Spies; Toddi A Steelman; Cassandra Moseley; Bart R Johnson; John D Bailey; Alan A Ager; Patrick Bourgeron; Susan Charnley; Brandon M Collins; Jeff Kline; Jessica E Leahy; Jeremy S Littell; James DA Millington; Max Nielsen-Pincus; Christine S Olsen; Travis B Paveglio; Christopher I Roos; Michelle M Steen-Adams; Forrest R Stevens; Jelena Vukomanovic; Eric White; David MJS Bowman

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in...

  13. Assessing wildfire risks at multiple spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justin Fitch

    2008-01-01

    In continuation of the efforts to advance wildfire science and develop tools for wildland fire managers, a spatial wildfire risk assessment was carried out using Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis was performed at two scales. The small-scale assessment covered the entire state of New Mexico, while...

  14. Wildfire communication and climate risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric. Toman

    2017-01-01

    Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire...

  15. How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calkin, David E; Cohen, Jack D; Finney, Mark A; Thompson, Matthew P

    2014-01-14

    Recent fire seasons in the western United States are some of the most damaging and costly on record. Wildfires in the wildland-urban interface on the Colorado Front Range, resulting in thousands of homes burned and civilian fatalities, although devastating, are not without historical reference. These fires are consistent with the characteristics of large, damaging, interface fires that threaten communities across much of the western United States. Wildfires are inevitable, but the destruction of homes, ecosystems, and lives is not. We propose the principles of risk analysis to provide land management agencies, first responders, and affected communities who face the inevitability of wildfires the ability to reduce the potential for loss. Overcoming perceptions of wildland-urban interface fire disasters as a wildfire control problem rather than a home ignition problem, determined by home ignition conditions, will reduce home loss.

  16. Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, A. Paige; Spies, Thomas A; Steelman, Toddi A; Moseley, Cassandra; Johnson, Bart R.; Bailey, John D.; Ager, Alan A; Bourgeron, Patrick S.; Charnley, Susan; Collins, Brandon M.; Kline, Jeffrey D; Leahy, Jessica E; Littell, Jeremy; Millington, James D. A.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max; Olsen, Christine S; Paveglio, Travis B; Roos, Christopher I.; Steen-Adams, Michelle M; Stevens, Forrest R; Vukomanovic, Jelena; White, Eric M; Bowman, David M J S

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS.

  17. Combining ungrouped and grouped wildfire data to estimate fire risk

    KAUST Repository

    Hernandez-Magallanes, I.

    2013-10-11

    © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Frequently, models are required to combine information obtained from different data sources and on different scales. In this work, we are interested in estimating the risk of wildfire ignition in the USA for a particular time and location by merging two levels of data, namely, individual points and aggregate count of points into areas. The data for federal lands consist of the point location and time of each fire. Nonfederal fires are aggregated by county for a particular year. The probability model is based on the wildfire point process. Assuming a smooth intensity function, a locally weighted likelihood fit is used, which incorporates the group effect. A logit model is used under the assumption of the existence of a latent process, and fuel conditions are included as a covariate. The model assessment is based on a residual analysis, while the False Discovery Rate detects spatial patterns. A benefit of the proposed model is that there is no need of arbitrary aggregation of individual fires into counts. A map of predicted probability of ignition for the Midwest US in 1990 is included. The predicted ignition probabilities and the estimated total number of expected fires are required for the allocation of resources.

  18. Wildfire Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M.; Calkin, D. E.; Hand, M. S.; Kreitler, J.

    2014-12-01

    In this presentation we address federal wildfire risk management largely through the lens of economics, targeting questions related to costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and tradeoffs. Beyond risks to resources and assets such as wildlife habitat, watersheds, and homes, wildfires present financial risk and budgetary instability for federal wildfire management agencies due to highly variable annual suppression costs. Despite its variability, the costs of wildfire management have continued to escalate and account for an ever-growing share of overall agency budgets, compromising abilities to attain other objectives related to forest health, recreation, timber management, etc. Trends associated with a changing climate and human expansion into fire-prone areas could lead to additional suppression costs in the future, only further highlighting the need for an ability to evaluate economic tradeoffs in investments across the wildfire management spectrum. Critically, these economic analyses need to accurately capture the complex spatial and stochastic aspects of wildfire, the inherent uncertainty associated with monetizing environmental impacts of wildfire, the costs and effectiveness of alternative management policies, and linkages between pre-fire investments and active incident management. Investing in hazardous fuels reduction and forest restoration in particular is a major policy lever for pre-fire risk mitigation, and will be a primary focus of our presentation. Evaluating alternative fuel management and suppression policies could provide opportunities for significant efficiency improvements in the development of risk-informed management fire management strategies. Better understanding tradeoffs of fire impacts and costs can help inform policy questions such as how much of the landscape to treat and how to balance investments in treating new areas versus maintaining previous investments. We will summarize current data needs, knowledge gaps, and other factors

  19. Wildfires caused by self-heating ignition of carbon-rich soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restuccia, Francesco; Huang, Xinyan; Rein, Guillermo

    2017-04-01

    Carbon-rich soils, like peat, cover more than 3% of the earth's land surface, and store roughly three times more carbon than the earth's plants. Carbon-rich soils are reactive porous materials, prone to smouldering combustion if the inert and moisture content are low enough. An example of carbon-rich soil combustion happens in peatlands, which are prone to wildfires both in boreal and tropical regions and where combustion is a commonly seen phenomena. The experimental work presented here focuses on understanding one of the ways carbon-rich soil can ignite. The ignition phenomenon is known as self-heating, which is due to soil undergoing spontaneous exothermic reactions in the presence of oxygen. In this work we investigate the effect of soil inorganic content by creating under controlled conditions soil samples with inorganic contents ranging from 3% to 86% of dry weight. Combining oven experiments with the Frank-Kamenetskii theory of ignition, the lumped kinetic and thermal parameters are determined. We then use these parameters to upscale the laboratory experiments to soil layers of different depths for a range of ambient temperatures ranging from 0 °C to 40 °C. Experimental results show that self-heating ignition in the different soil layers is possible. The kinetic analysis predicts the critical soil layer thicknesses required for self-ignition. For example, at 40 °C a soil layer of 3% inorganic content can be ignited through self-heating if it is thicker than 8.8 m. This is also the first experimental quantification of soil self-heating showing that indeed it is possible that wildfires are initiated by self-heating of the soil.

  20. Homebuyers and wildfire risk: A Colorado Springs case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia Ann Champ; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Christopher M. Barth

    2010-01-01

    In recent years, the threat that wildfire poses to homes has received much attention in both the mainstream press and academic literature. However, little is known about how homebuyers consider wildfire risk during the home-purchase process. In the context of a unique wildfire education program, we consider two approaches to examining the relationship between wildfire...

  1. No Fire Days of Rest: Relating California Wildfire Ignitions to Days of the Week

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendix, J.; Commons, M.

    2014-12-01

    In California, the majority of wildfires are started by humans, rather than by natural ignitions (i.e. lightning). Given this importance of human activity, it is logical that patterns of ignition should be related to social, as well as ecological factors. In this paper, we explore the relationship of ignition to human behavior at a fine temporal scale: days of the week. Because more people typically enter both wildlands and the wildland-urban interface on weekends, we hypothesized that more wildfires would start on Saturdays and Sundays than on other days of the week. We used data from California's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP) database for human-caused fires occurring from 1950 through 2009, and omitted those that would not reasonably relate to day of the week (e.g. "Power Line"). These criteria yielded a dataset of 8644 fires over the 60-year period. Overall, 15.5% of the fires began on Saturdays, and 16.4% began on Sundays. This compares to the 14.3% that would be expected if ignitions were evenly distributed through the week. However, different patterns of weekend ignition emerge depending on time period, specific fire cause, and the type of administrative unit in which the fires occurred. The proportion of fires beginning on the weekend declined from a high in the 1950s (17.3% Saturdays, 18.5% Sundays) to a low in the 1990s (13.5% Saturdays, 14.4% Sundays), before rebounding in the 2000s to close to the long-term average (15.3% Saturdays, 16.8% Sundays). "Campfire" was the ignition source most concentrated on weekends, with 20.6% of the fires attributed to this cause starting on Saturdays, and 20.2% on Sundays. By contrast, "Equipment" was under-represented on the weekend (13.5% Saturdays, 13.9% Sundays). Fires in California State Parks clearly show a weekend bias, with 19.4% initiated on Saturdays, and 16.7% on Sundays. On National Forests, 15.5% of fires began on Saturdays, and 18.4% on Sundays. Many fires were on private land, much of which is

  2. Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael S. Hand; Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Dave Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to...

  3. A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling Wildfire Risk on Changing Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burzynski, A. M.; Beavers, A.

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) maintains approximately 28 million acres of land across 420 of their largest installations. These sites harbored 425 federally listed Threatened and Endangered species as of 2013, representing a density of rare species that is several times greater than any other land management agency in the U.S. This is a major driver of DoD natural resources policy and many of these species are affected by wildland fire, both positively and negatively. Military installations collectively experience thousands of wildfires per year, and the majority of ignitions are caused by mission and training activities that can be planned to accommodate fire risk. Motivated by the need for accurately modeled wildfire under the unique land-use conditions of military installations and the assessment of risk exposure at installations throughout the U.S., we developed custom, FARSITE-based scientific software that applies a Monte Carlo approach to wildfire risk analysis. This simulation accounts for the dynamics of vegetation and weather over time, as well as the spatial and temporal distribution of wildfire ignitions, and can be applied to landscapes up to several million acres in size. The data-driven simulation provides insight that feeds directly into mitigation decision-making and can be used to assess future risk scenarios, both real and hypothetical. We highlight an example of a future scenario comparing wildfire behavior between unmitigated fuels and one in which a prescribed burn program is implemented. The same process can be used for a variety of scenarios including changes in vegetation (e.g. new or altered grazing regimes, extreme weather, or drought) and changes in spatiotemporal ignition probability. The modeling capabilities that we apply to predicting wildfire risk on military lands are also relevant to the greater scientific community for modeling wildland fire in the context of environmental change, historical ecology, or climate change.

  4. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Michael S. Hand; David E. Calkin; Tyron J. Venn; Matthew P. Thompson

    2013-01-01

    Federal policy has embraced risk management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risks of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risk aversion, and risk seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers...

  5. Emerging concepts in wildfire risk assessment and management (Publ.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson

    2015-01-01

    A quantitative measure of wildfire risk across a landscape - expected net change in value of resources and assets exposed to wildfire - was established nearly a decade ago. Assessments made using that measure have been completed at spatial extents ranging from an individual county to the continental United States. The science of wildfire risk assessment and management...

  6. FIRESTORM: Modelling the water quality risk of wildfire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, C. I.; Sheridan, G. J.; Smith, H. G.; Jones, O.; Chong, D.; Tolhurst, K.

    2012-04-01

    Following wildfire, loss of vegetation and changes to soil properties may result in decreases in infiltration rates, less rainfall interception, and higher overland flow velocities. Rainfall events affecting burn areas before vegetation recovers can cause high magnitude erosion events that impact on downstream water quality. For cities and towns that rely upon fire-prone forest catchments for water supply, wildfire impacts on water quality represent a credible risk to water supply security. Quantifying the risk associated with the occurrence of wildfires and the magnitude of water quality impacts has important implications for managing water supplies. At present, no suitable integrative model exists that considers the probabilistic nature of system inputs as well as the range of processes and scales involved in this problem. We present FIRESTORM, a new model currently in development that aims to determine the range of sediment and associated contaminant loads that may be delivered to water supply reservoirs from the combination of wildfire and subsequent rainfall events. This Monte Carlo model incorporates the probabilistic nature of fire ignition, fire weather and rainfall, and includes deterministic models for fire behaviour and locally dominant erosion processes. FIRESTORM calculates the magnitude and associated annual risk of catchment-scale sediment loads associated with the occurrence of wildfire and rainfall generated by two rain event types. The two event types are localised, high intensity, short-duration convective storms, and widespread, longer duration synoptic-scale rainfall events. Initial application and testing of the model will focus on the two main reservoirs supplying water to Melbourne, Australia, both of which are situated in forest catchments vulnerable to wildfire. Probabilistic fire ignition and weather scenarios have been combined using 40 years of fire records and weather observations. These are used to select from a dataset of over 80

  7. Landowner response to wildfire risk: Adaptation, mitigation or doing nothing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianbang Gan; Adam Jarrett; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

    2015-01-01

    Wildfire has brought about ecological, economic, and social consequences that engender human responses in many parts of the world. How to respond to wildfire risk is a common challenge across the globe particularly in areas where lands are controlled by many small private owners because effective wildfire prevention and protection require coordinated efforts of...

  8. Wildfire Smoke and Health Risk Communication Workshop and Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    This workshop piloted an interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder research problem formulation approach to improve understanding of knowledge gaps in health risk communication concerning wildfire smoke.

  9. Landowner response to wildfire risk: Adaptation, mitigation or doing nothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Jianbang; Jarrett, Adam; Johnson Gaither, Cassandra

    2015-08-15

    Wildfire has brought about ecological, economic, and social consequences that engender human responses in many parts of the world. How to respond to wildfire risk is a common challenge across the globe particularly in areas where lands are controlled by many small private owners because effective wildfire prevention and protection require coordinated efforts of neighboring stakeholders. We explore (i) wildfire response strategies adopted by family forestland owners in the southern United States, one of the most important and productive forest regions in the world, through a landowner survey; and (ii) linkages between the responses of these landowners and their characteristics via multinomial logistic regression. We find that landowners used diverse strategies to respond to wildfire risk, with the most popular responses being "doing nothing" and combined adaptation and mitigation, followed by adaptation or mitigation alone. Landowners who had lost properties to wildfire, lived on their forestlands, had a forest management plan, and were better educated were more likely to proactively respond to wildfire risk. Our results indicate the possibility to enhance the effectiveness of collective action of wildfire risk response by private forestland owners and to coordinate wildfire response with forest conservation and certification efforts. These findings shed new light on engaging private landowners in wildfire management in the study region and beyond. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Living in a tinderbox: wildfire risk perceptions and mitigating behaviours

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia A. Champ; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Christopher M. Barth

    2013-01-01

    The loss of homes to wildfires is an important issue in the USA and other countries. Yet many homeowners living in fire-prone areas do not undertake mitigating actions, such as clearing vegetation, to decrease the risk of losing their home. To better understand the complexity of wildfire risk-mitigation decisions and the role of perceived risk, we conducted a survey of...

  11. Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildfires are fires that burn out of control in a natural area, like a forest, grassland, or ... of the public and firefighters. Humans cause most wildfires. It can be an accident, like when people ...

  12. Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

    2015-01-01

    Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

  13. A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin

    2013-01-01

    Wildfires can result in significant, long-lasting impacts to ecological, social, and economic systems. It is necessary, therefore, to identify and understand the risks posed by wildland fire, and to develop cost-effective mitigation strategies accordingly. This report presents a general framework with which to assess wildfire risk and explore mitigation options, and...

  14. Wildfire risk and home purchase decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia Champ; Geoffrey Donovan; Christopher. Barth

    2008-01-01

    In the last 20 years, wildfire damages and the costs of wildfire suppression have risen dramatically. This trend has been attributed to three main factors: climate change, increased fuel loads from a century of wildfire suppression, and increased housing development in fire-prone areas., There is little that fire managers can do about climate change, and current fuel...

  15. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Hand, Michael S; Calkin, David E; Venn, Tyron J; Thompson, Matthew P

    2013-06-01

    Federal policy has embraced risa management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risas of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risa aversion, and risa seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers respond to wildfire risa, including the potential effect of wildfires (on ecological values, structures, and safety) and the likelihood of different fire outcomes. We use responses to a choice experiment questionnaire of U.S. federal wildfire managers to measure attitudes toward several components of wildfire risa and to test whether observed risa attitudes are consistent with the efficient allocation of wildfire suppression resources. Our results indicate that fire managers' decisions are consistent with nonexpected utility theories of decisions under risa. Managers may overallocate firefighting resources when the likelihood or potential magnitude of damage from fires is low, and sensitivity to changes in the probability of fire outcomes depends on whether probabilities are close to one or zero and the magnitude of the potential harm. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Wildfire risk transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessica R. Haas; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires are a global phenomenon that in some circumstances can result in human casualties, economic loss, and ecosystem service degradation. In this article we spatially identify wildfire risk transmission pathways and locate the areas of highest exposure of human populations to wildland fires under severe, but not uncommon, weather events. We quantify varying levels...

  17. Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Mark A. Finney

    2009-01-01

    Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of...

  18. Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, Alan A; Kline, Jeffrey D; Fischer, A Paige

    2015-08-01

    We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire-prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape-scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; A. Paige Fisher

    2015-01-01

    We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social...

  20. Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Check and re-check for smoke, sparks or hidden embers throughout the house, including the roof and ... link) American Red Cross (link) Wildfire Banners and Web Badges (link) NFPA’s Firewise Communities Program (link) Fire ...

  1. Response of native Hawaiian woody species to lava-ignited wildfires in tropical forests and shrublands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alison Ainsworth; J. Boone Kauffman

    2009-01-01

    Wildfires are rare in the disturbance history of Hawaiian forests but may increase in prevalence due to invasive species and global climate change. We documented survival rates and adaptations facilitating persistence of native woody species following 2002–2003 wildfires in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, Hawaii. Fires occurred during an El Niño drought and were...

  2. Wildfire risk adaptation: propensity of forestland owners to purchase wildfire insurance in the southern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianbang Gan; Adam Jarrett; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

    2014-01-01

    Economic and ecological damages caused by wildfire are alarming, and such damages are expected to rise with changes in wildfire regimes, calling for more effective wildfire mitigation and adaptation strategies. Among wildfire adaptation options for forestland owners is purchasing wildfire insurance, which provides compensation to those insured if a wildfire damages...

  3. Optimal timing of wildfire prevention education

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. T. Butry; J. P. Prestemon; K. L. Abt

    2010-01-01

    Public outreach and wildfire education activities have been shown to limit the number of unintentional human-caused ignitions (i.e., 'accidental' wildfires). Such activities include the airing of public service announcements, visiting with homeowners in at-risk areas, distributing informative brochures and flyers, hosting of public forums (with presentations...

  4. The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the wildland urban interface in Sydney, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

    2013-12-01

    In order to quantify the risks from fire at the wildland urban interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of the 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire's weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting >2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances >10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). Overall, 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

  5. A conceptual framework for coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire to improve fireshed planning and risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeff Kline; Alan A. Ager; Paige Fischer

    2015-01-01

    The need for improved methods for managing wildfire risk is becoming apparent as uncharacteristically large wildfires in the western US and elsewhere exceed government capacities for their control and suppression. We propose a coupled biophysical-social framework to managing wildfire risk that relies on wildfire simulation to identify spatial patterns of wildfire risk...

  6. Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Michael S; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Calkin, David E; Thompson, Matthew P

    2015-10-01

    Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery-choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation-related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) and "bad" (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. 76 FR 44301 - Information Collection; Homeowner Risk Reduction Behaviors Concerning Wildfire Risks and Climate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-25

    ... Behaviors Concerning Wildfire Risks and Climate Change Impacts. The information will be collected from... INFORMATION: Title: Understanding the Threats of Wildfire & Climate Change: Risk Mitigation Behaviors of... risk, and climate change. The objective of this study is to help decisionmakers better understand the...

  8. Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

    2009-01-01

    The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management

  9. TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, Rodman Ray [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Koo, Eunmo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Honig, Kristen Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); White, Judith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Funk, David John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-08-10

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautions that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is

  10. Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

  11. A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessica R. Haas; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

    2013-01-01

    Ongoing human development into fire-prone areas contributes to increasing wildfire risk to human life. It is critically important, therefore, to have the ability to characterize wildfire risk to populated places, and to identify geographic areas with relatively high risk. A fundamental component of wildfire risk analysis is establishing the likelihood of wildfire...

  12. Trying not to get burned: Understanding homeowners' wildfire risk-mitigation behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia A. Champ; Nicholas Flores

    2012-01-01

    Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation...

  13. Pathology of wildfire risk: A characterization of social and ecological dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Paige Fischer; Thomas A Spies; Toddi A Steelman; Cassandra Moseley; Bart R Johnson; John D Bailey; Alan A Ager; Patrick Bourgeron; Susan Charnley; Brandon M Collins; Jeffrey D Kline; Jessica E Leahy; Jeremy S Littell; James DA Millington; Max Nielsen-Pincus; Christine S Olsen; Travis B Paveglio; Christopher I Roos; Michelle M Steen-Adams; Forrest R Stevens; Jelena Vukomanovic; Eric M White; David M. J. S. Bowman

    2016-01-01

    Despite dramatic increases in suppression spending, the risk of life and property loss associated with wildfire has continued to rise in recent decades. Economic losses from wildfires have doubled in the United States and suppression expenses have tripled between 2002 and 2012 compared to the decade prior. Loss of property to wildfire has outpaced efforts to reduce...

  14. Is timber insurable? A study of wildfire Risks in the U.S. forest sector using spatio-temporal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuan Chen; Barry K. Goodwin; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2014-01-01

    In the U.S. forest products industry, wildfire is one of the leading causes of damage and economic losses. While individual wildfire behavior is well studied, new literature is emerging on broad-scale (e.g., county-level) wildfire risks. Our paper studies wildfire risks using crucial informational vari­ ables across both spatio units and time periods....

  15. Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, A.; Finney, M.

    2009-04-01

    Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and intensity maps over large areas (10,000 - 2,000,000 ha). The MTT algorithm is parallelized for multi-threaded processing and is imbedded in a number of research and applied fire modeling applications. High performance computers (e.g., 32-way 64 bit SMP) are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the 32 bit desktop FlamMap3 program (www.fire.org). Extensive testing has shown that this algorithm can replicate large fire boundaries in the heterogeneous landscapes that typify much of the wildlands in the western U.S. In this paper, we describe the application of the MTT algorithm to understand spatial patterns of burn probability (BP), and to analyze wildfire risk to key human and ecological values. The work is focused on a federally-managed 2,000,000 ha landscape in the central interior region of Oregon State, USA. The fire-prone study area encompasses a wide array of topography and fuel types and a number of highly valued resources that are susceptible to fire. We quantitatively defined risk as the product of the probability of a fire and the resulting consequence. Burn probabilities at specific intensity classes were estimated for each 100 x 100 m pixel by simulating 100,000 wildfires under burn conditions that replicated recent severe wildfire events that occurred under conditions where fire suppression was generally ineffective (97th percentile, August weather). We repeated the simulation under milder weather (70th percentile, August weather) to replicate a "wildland fire use scenario" where suppression is minimized to

  16. Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

    2011-01-01

    The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

  17. Social amplification of wildfire risk: The role of social interactions and information sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Katherine L. Dickinson; Patricia A. Champ; Nicholas Flores

    2013-01-01

    Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire-prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social...

  18. Earth, wind, and fire: Wildfire risk perceptions in a hurricane-prone environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soren M. Newman; Matthew S. Carroll; Pamela J. Jakes; Daniel R. Williams; Lorie L. Higgins

    2014-01-01

    Wildfire is one of several potential disturbances that could have extraordinary impacts on individuals and communities in fire-prone areas. In this article we describe disturbance risk perceptions from interviews with residents in three Florida communities that face significant wildfire and hurricane risk. Although they live in areas characterized by emergency managers...

  19. Provision of a wildfire risk map: informing residents in the wildland urban interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mozumder, Pallab; Helton, Ryan; Berrens, Robert P

    2009-11-01

    Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.

  20. Addressing Wildfire Risk in Forest Management Planning with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susete Marques

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires impact the outcomes of forest management plans. Addressing that impact is thus critical for effective forest ecosystem management planning. This paper presents research on the use of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM methods that integrate wildfire risk in planning contexts characterized by multiple objectives. Specifically, an a posteriori preference modeling approach is developed that adds wildfire criteria to a set of objectives representing ecosystem services supply values. Wildfire risk criteria are derived from stand-level wildfire occurrence and damage models as well as from the characteristics of neighboring stands that may impact wildfire probability and spread. A forested landscape classified into 1976 stands is used for testing purposes. The management planning criteria include the carbon stock, harvest volumes for three forest species, the volume of the ending inventory, and resistance to wildfire risk indicators. Results show the potential of multiple criteria decision making methods to provide information about trade-offs between wildfire risk and the supply of provisioning (timber as well as regulatory (carbon ecosystem services. This information may contribute to the effectiveness of forest ecosystem management planning.

  1. Probabilistic risk models for multiple disturbances: an example of forest insects and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

    2010-01-01

    Building probabilistic risk models for highly random forest disturbances like wildfire and forest insect outbreaks is a challenging. Modeling the interactions among natural disturbances is even more difficult. In the case of wildfire and forest insects, we looked at the probability of a large fire given an insect outbreak and also the incidence of insect outbreaks...

  2. Race and wildfire risk perceptions among rural forestland owners in north-central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miriam Wyman; Sparkle Malone; Taylor Stein; Cassandra Johnson

    2012-01-01

    The southern United States is susceptible to wildfire, from its climate, growing seasons, lightning frequency, and decades of fire suppression. With much known about wildfire’s biophysical risks, less is understood about sociodemographic obstacles, including race, income, and education. Blacks in the rural southeastern United States are typically among the most...

  3. Cost shared wildfire risk mitigation in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado: Survey evidence on participation and willingness to pay

    Science.gov (United States)

    James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Travis Warziniack; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

    2014-01-01

    Wildland-urban interface (WUI) homeowners who do not mitigate the wildfire risk on their properties impose a negative externality on society. To reduce the social costs of wildfire and incentivise homeowners to take action, cost sharing programs seek to reduce the barriers that impede wildfire risk mitigation. Using survey data from a WUI community in western Colorado...

  4. Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Don Helmbrecht; Dave E. Calkin

    2013-01-01

    The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails...

  5. Preventing erosive risks after wildfire in Spain: advances and gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández Filgueira, Cristina; Vega Hidalgo, José A.; Fontúrbel Lliteras, Teresa

    2017-04-01

    Galicia (NW Spain) is one of the most wildfire-affected areas in Western Europe and where the highest soil losses following fire are recorded in the Iberian Peninsula. During the last decade, mitigation of hydrological and erosive risk has been an important objective for researchers and forest managers. For this reason, research carried out has focused on three main issues: i) the development of operational tools to prioritize post-fire soil stabilization actions, based on soil burn severity indicators and remote sensed information, and testing of their ability to reflect degradation risk in relevant soil properties and subsequent soil erosion, ii) the development and testing of different soil stabilization treatments and their effectiveness for reducing erosion, following their application at broad scale, under the specific environmental conditions of Galicia and iii) the assessment of the performance of current erosion models as well as the development of empirical models to predict post-fire soil losses. On the other hand, the use of forest resources is an essential component of the regional incomes in NW Spain and consequently there is a pressing necessity for investigation on techniques suitable for reconciling soil conservation and sustainable use of those resources. In the framework of wildfire impacts this involve many and complex challenges. This scenario contrast with most of the Iberian Peninsula under Mediterranean influence where salvage logging is not a priority. As in other regions, post-fire hydrologic and erosive risk modeling, including threatened resources vulnerability evaluation is also a capital research need, particularly in a climate change context where dramatic changes in drivers such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and fire regime are expected. The study was funded by the National Institute of Agricultural Research of Spain (INIA) through project RTA2014-00011-C06-02, cofunded by FEDER and the Plan de Mejora e Innovación Forestal de

  6. Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland-urban interface homeowners' wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Olsen, Christine S; Kline, Jeffrey D; Ager, Alan A; Olsen, Keith A; Short, Karen C

    2017-01-01

    Expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and the increasing size and number of wildfires has policy-makers and wildfire managers seeking ways to reduce wildfire risk in communities located near fire-prone forests...

  7. Living with fire: How social scientists are helping wildland-urban interface communities reduce wildfire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian Cooke; Daniel Williams; Travis Paveglio; Matthew Carroll

    2016-01-01

    Reducing wildfire risk to lives and property is a critical issue for policy makers, land managers, and citizens who reside in high-risk fire areas of the United States - this is especially the case in the Rocky Mountain region and other western states. In order for a wildfire risk reduction effort to be effective in a U.S. wildland-urban interface (WUI)...

  8. Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Cody R. Evers; Michelle A. Day; Haiganoush K. Preisler; Ana M. G. Barros; Max. Nielsen-Pincus

    2017-01-01

    We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of...

  9. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Risk in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunjin An

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the statistical association of wildfire risk with climatic conditions and non-climate variables in 48 continental US states. Because the response variable “wildfire risk” is a fractional variable bounded between zero and one, we use a non-linear panel data model to recognize the bounded nature of the response variable. We estimate the non-linear panel data model (fractional probit using the Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE approach to ensure that the parameter estimation is efficient. The statistical model, coupled with the future climates projected by Global Climate Models (GCMs, is then employed to assess the impact of global climate change on wildfire risk. Our regression results show that wildfire risk is positively related to spring, summer, and winter temperatures and human population density whereas it is negatively associated with precipitation. The simulation results based on GCMs and the regression model indicate that climate change will intensify wildfire risk throughout the entire US, especially in the South Central region, posing an increasing wildfire threat and thus calling for more effective wildfire management strategies.

  10. Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J.; Mahood, Adam L.

    2017-01-01

    The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal “fire niche” in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2, the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2, primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards. PMID:28242690

  11. Wildfire-specific Fine Particulate Matter and Risk of Hospital Admissions in Urban and Rural Counties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jia Coco; Wilson, Ander; Mickley, Loretta J; Dominici, Francesca; Ebisu, Keita; Wang, Yun; Sulprizio, Melissa P; Peng, Roger D; Yue, Xu; Son, Ji-Young; Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L

    2017-01-01

    The health impacts of wildfire smoke, including fine particles (PM2.5), are not well understood and may differ from those of PM2.5 from other sources due to differences in concentrations and chemical composition. First, for the entire Western United States (561 counties) for 2004-2009, we estimated daily PM2.5 concentrations directly attributable to wildfires (wildfires-specific PM2.5), using a global chemical transport model. Second, we defined smoke wave as ≥2 consecutive days with daily wildfire-specific PM2.5 > 20 μg/m, with sensitivity analysis considering 23, 28, and 37 μg/m. Third, we estimated the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions associated with smoke waves for Medicare enrollees. We used a generalized linear mixed model to estimate the relative risk of hospital admissions on smoke wave days compared with matched comparison days without wildfire smoke. We estimated that about 46 million people of all ages were exposed to at least one smoke wave during 2004 to 2009 in the Western United States. Of these, 5 million are Medicare enrollees (≥65 years). We found a 7.2% (95% confidence interval: 0.25%, 15%) increase in risk of respiratory admissions during smoke wave days with high wildfire-specific PM2.5 (>37 μg/m) compared with matched non smoke wave days. We did not observe an association between smoke wave days with wildfire-specific PM2.5 ≤ 37 μg/mand respiratory or cardiovascular admissions. Respiratory effects of wildfire-specific PM2.5 may be stronger than that of PM2.5 from other sources. Short-term exposure to wildfire-specific PM2.5was associated with risk of respiratory diseases in the elderly population in the Western United States during severe smoke days. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B137.

  12. A spatial evaluation of global wildfire-water risks to human and natural systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Bladon, Kevin D; Miller, Carol; Parisien, Marc-André; Mathieu, Jérôme; Flannigan, Mike D

    2018-01-01

    The large mediatic coverage of recent massive wildfires across the world has emphasized the vulnerability of freshwater resources. The extensive hydrogeomorphic effects from a wildfire can impair the ability of watersheds to provide safe drinking water to downstream communities and high-quality water to maintain riverine ecosystem health. Safeguarding water use for human activities and ecosystems is required for sustainable development; however, no global assessment of wildfire impacts on water supply is currently available. Here, we provide the first global evaluation of wildfire risks to water security, in the form of a spatially explicit index. We adapted the Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response risk analysis framework to select a comprehensive set of indicators of fire activity and water availability, which we then aggregated to a single index of wildfire-water risk using a simple additive weighted model. Our results show that water security in many regions of the world is potentially vulnerable, regardless of socio-economic status. However, in developing countries, a critical component of the risk is the lack of socio-economic capability to respond to disasters. Our work highlights the importance of addressing wildfire-induced risks in the development of water security policies; the geographic differences in the components of the overall risk could help adapting those policies to different regional contexts. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland-urban interface homeowners' wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christine S. Olsen; Jeffrey D. Kline; Alan A. Ager; Keith A. Olsen; Karen C. Short

    2017-01-01

    Expansion of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) and the increasing size and number of wildfires has policy-makers and wildfire managers seeking ways to reduce wildfire risk in communities located near fire-prone forests. It is widely acknowledged that homeowners can reduce their exposure to wildfire risk by using nonflammable building materials and reducing tree...

  14. Developing an online tool for identifying at-risk populations to wildfire smoke hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidyanathan, Ambarish; Yip, Fuyuen; Garbe, Paul

    2017-11-16

    Wildfire episodes pose a significant public health threat in the United States. Adverse health impacts associated with wildfires occur near the burn area as well as in places far downwind due to wildfire smoke exposures. Health effects associated with exposure to particulate matter arising from wildfires can range from mild eye and respiratory tract irritation to more serious outcomes such as asthma exacerbation, bronchitis, and decreased lung function. Real-time operational forecasts of wildfire smoke concentrations are available but they are not readily integrated with information on vulnerable populations necessary to identify at-risk communities during wildfire smoke episodes. Efforts are currently underway at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to develop an online tool that utilizes short-term predictions and forecasts of smoke concentrations and integrates them with measures of population-level vulnerability for identifying at-risk populations to wildfire smoke hazards. The tool will be operationalized on a national scale, seeking input and assistance from several academic, federal, state, local, Tribal, and Territorial partners. The final product will then be incorporated into CDC's National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (http://ephtracking.cdc.gov), providing users with access to a suite of mapping and display functionalities. A real-time vulnerability assessment tool incorporating standardized health and exposure datasets, and prevention guidelines related to wildfire smoke hazards is currently unavailable for public health practitioners and emergency responders. This tool could strengthen existing situational awareness competencies, and expedite future response and recovery efforts during wildfire episodes. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. Application of Wildfire Risk Assessment Results to Wildfire Response Planning in the Southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew P. Thompson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available How wildfires are managed is a key determinant of long-term socioecological resiliency and the ability to live with fire. Safe and effective response to fire requires effective pre-fire planning, which is the main focus of this paper. We review general principles of effective federal fire management planning in the U.S., and introduce a framework for incident response planning consistent with these principles. We contextualize this framework in relation to a wildland fire management continuum based on federal fire management policy in the U.S. The framework leverages recent advancements in spatial wildfire risk assessment—notably the joint concepts of in situ risk and source risk—and integrates assessment results with additional geospatial information to develop and map strategic response zones. We operationalize this framework in a geographic information system (GIS environment based on landscape attributes relevant to fire operations, and define Potential wildland fire Operational Delineations (PODs as the spatial unit of analysis for strategic response. Using results from a recent risk assessment performed on several National Forests in the Southern Sierra Nevada area of California, USA, we illustrate how POD-level summaries of risk metrics can reduce uncertainty surrounding potential losses and benefits given large fire occurrence, and lend themselves naturally to design of fire and fuel management strategies. To conclude we identify gaps, limitations, and uncertainties, and prioritize future work to support safe and effective incident response.

  16. Wildfire Risk Assessment in a Typical Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interface of Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

  17. Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, David E; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W; Ager, Alan A

    2011-08-01

    In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at regional and national scales. Three main components are required to generate wildfire risk outputs: (1) burn probability maps generated from wildfire simulations, (2) spatially identified highly valued resources (HVRs), and (3) response functions that describe the effects of fire (beneficial or detrimental) on the HVR. Analyzing fire effects has to date presented a major challenge to integrated risk assessments, due to a limited understanding of the type and magnitude of changes wrought by wildfire to ecological and other nonmarket values. This work advances wildfire effects analysis, recognizing knowledge uncertainty and appropriately managing it through the use of an expert systems approach. Specifically, this work entailed consultation with 10 fire and fuels program management officials from federal agencies with fire management responsibilities in order to define quantitative resource response relationships as a function of fire intensity. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept application of the wildland fire risk assessment tool, using the state of Oregon as a case study.

  18. Decision making for wildfires: A guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary A. Taber; Lisa M. Elenz; Paul G. Langowski

    2013-01-01

    This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the process is equally applicable to non-Federal...

  19. A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carol Miller; Alan A. Ager

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyze the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels...

  20. Understanding Gaps Between the Risk Perceptions of Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Residents and Wildfire Professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meldrum, James R; Champ, Patricia A; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Warziniack, Travis; Barth, Christopher M; Falk, Lilia C

    2015-09-01

    Research across a variety of risk domains finds that the risk perceptions of professionals and the public differ. Such risk perception gaps occur if professionals and the public understand individual risk factors differently or if they aggregate risk factors into overall risk differently. The nature of such divergences, whether based on objective inaccuracies or on differing perspectives, is important to understand. However, evidence of risk perception gaps typically pertains to general, overall risk levels; evidence of and details about mismatches between the specific level of risk faced by individuals and their perceptions of that risk is less available. We examine these issues with a paired data set of professional and resident assessments of parcel-level wildfire risk for private property in a wildland-urban interface community located in western Colorado, United States. We find evidence of a gap between the parcel-level risk assessments of a wildfire professional and numerous measures of residents' risk assessments. Overall risk ratings diverge for the majority of properties, as do judgments about many specific property attributes and about the relative contribution of these attributes to a property's overall level of risk. However, overall risk gaps are not well explained by many factors commonly found to relate to risk perceptions. Understanding the nature of these risk perception gaps can facilitate improved communication by wildfire professionals about how risks can be mitigated on private lands. These results also speak to the general nature of individual-level risk perception. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. A model for assessing water quality risk in catchments prone to wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhans, Christoph; Smith, Hugh; Chong, Derek; Nyman, Petter; Lane, Patrick; Sheridan, Gary

    2017-04-01

    Post-fire debris flows can have erosion rates up to three orders of magnitude higher than background rates. They are major sources of fine suspended sediment, which is critical to the safety of water supply from forested catchments. Fire can cover parts or all of these large catchments and burn severity is often heterogeneous. The probability of spatial and temporal overlap of fire disturbance and rainfall events, and the susceptibility of hillslopes to severe erosion determine the risk to water quality. Here we present a model to calculate recurrence intervals of high magnitude sediment delivery from runoff-generated debris flows to a reservoir in a large catchment (>100 km2) accounting for heterogeneous burn conditions. Debris flow initiation was modelled with indicators of surface runoff and soil surface erodibility. Debris flow volume was calculated with an empirical model, and fine sediment delivery was calculated using simple, expert-based assumptions. In a Monte-Carlo simulation, wildfire was modelled with a fire spread model using historic data on weather and ignition probabilities for a forested catchment in central Victoria, Australia. Multiple high intensity storms covering the study catchment were simulated using Intensity-Frequency-Duration relationships, and the runoff indicator calculated with a runoff model for hillslopes. A sensitivity analysis showed that fine sediment is most sensitive to variables related to the texture of the source material, debris flow volume estimation, and the proportion of fine sediment transported to the reservoir. As a measure of indirect validation, denudation rates of 4.6 - 28.5 mm ka-1 were estimated and compared well to other studies in the region. From the results it was extrapolated that in the absence of fire management intervention the critical sediment concentrations in the studied reservoir could be exceeded in intervals of 18 - 124 years.

  2. The science and opportunity of wildfire risk assessment (Chapter 6)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Alan A. Ager; Mark A. Finney; Dave E. Calkin; Nicole M. Vaillant

    2012-01-01

    Wildfire management within the United States continues to increase in complexity, as the converging drivers of (1) increased development into fire-prone areas, (2) accumulated fuels from historic management practices, and (3) climate change potentially magnify threats to social and ecological values (Bruins et al., 2010; Gude et al., 2008; Littell et al., 2009). The...

  3. Accepting uncertainty, assessing risk: decision quality in managing wildfire, forest resource values, and new technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey G. Borchers

    2005-01-01

    The risks, uncertainties, and social conflicts surrounding uncharacteristic wildfire and forest resource values have defied conventional approaches to planning and decision-making. Paradoxically, the adoption of technological innovations such as risk assessment, decision analysis, and landscape simulation models by land management organizations has been limited. The...

  4. Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

  5. Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence: A new approach to spatially model wildfire risk potential in central Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Cristián; Castillo, Miguel; García-Chevesich, Pablo; Barrios, Juan

    2018-02-01

    A spatial modeling was applied to Chilean wildfire occurrence, through the Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory and considering the 2006-2010 period for the Valparaiso Region (central Chile), a representative area for this experiment. Results indicate strong spatial correlation between documented wildfires and cumulative evidence maps, resulting in a powerful tool for future wildfire risk prevention programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Simulating effects of land use policies on extent of the wildland urban interface and wildfire risk in Flathead County, Montana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paveglio, Travis B; Prato, Tony; Hardy, Michael

    2013-11-30

    This study used a wildfire loss simulation model to evaluate how different land use policies are likely to influence wildfire risk in the wildland urban interface (WUI) for Flathead County, Montana. The model accounts for the complex socio-ecological interactions among climate change, economic growth, land use change and policy, homeowner mitigations, and forest treatments in Flathead County's WUI over the five 10-year subperiods comprising the future evaluation period (i.e., 2010-2059). Wildfire risk, defined as expected residential losses from wildfire [E(RLW)], depends on the number of residential properties on parcels, the probability that parcels burn, the probability of wildfire losses to residential structures on properties given the parcels on which those properties are located burn, the average percentage of wildfire-related losses in aesthetic values of residential properties, and the total value (structures plus land) of residential properties. E(RLW) for the five subperiods is simulated for 2010 (referred to as the current), moderately restrictive, and highly restrictive land use policy scenarios, a moderate economic growth scenario and the A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results demonstrate that increasingly restrictive land use policy for Flathead County significantly reduces the amount and footprint of future residential development in the WUI. In addition, shifting from the current to a moderately restrictive land use policy for Flathead County significantly reduces wildfire risk for the WUI, but shifting from the current to a highly restrictive land use policy does not significantly reduce wildfire risk in the WUI. Both the methods and results of the study can help land and wildfire managers to better manage future wildfire risk and identify residential areas having potentially high wildfire risk. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland-urban interface homeowners' wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine S. Olsen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI and the increasing size and number of wildfires has policy-makers and wildfire managers seeking ways to reduce wildfire risk in communities located near fire-prone forests. It is widely acknowledged that homeowners can reduce their exposure to wildfire risk by using nonflammable building materials and reducing tree density near the home, among other actions. Although these actions can reduce the vulnerability of homes to wildfire, many homeowners do not take them. We examined the influence of risk factors on homeowners' perceived wildfire risk components using a survey of WUI homeowners in central Oregon (USA and biophysical data that described wildfire risk as predicted by wildfire simulation models, past wildfire, and vegetation characteristics. Our analysis included homeowners' perceptions of the likelihood of wildfire and resulting damage, and examined how these factors contribute to homeowners' likelihood to conduct mitigation actions. We developed an empirical model of homeowners' risk perceptions and mitigation behavior, which served as input into an agent-based model to examine potential landscape and behavior changes over 50 years. We found homeowners' wildfire risk perceptions to be positively correlated with hazardous conditions predicted by fuel models and weakly predictive of mitigation behavior. Homeowners' perceived chance of wildfire was positively correlated with actual probability of wildfire, while their perceived chance of damage to the home was positively correlated with potential wildfire intensity. Wildfire risk perceptions also were found to be correlated with past wildfire experience. Our results suggest that homeowners may be savvy observers of landscape conditions, which act as "feedbacks" that enhance homeowners' concerns about wildfire hazard and motivate them to take mitigation action. Alternatively, homeowners living in hazardous locations are somehow receiving the

  8. Winter grazing decreases wildfire risk, severity, and behavior in semi-arid sagebrush rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildfires are an ecological and economic risk for many semi-arid rangelands which has resulted in increased pressure for pre-suppression management of fuels. In rangelands, fuel management treatment options are limited by costs. We evaluated winter grazing as a tool to manage fuels and alter fire ...

  9. Assessing the effect of a fuel break network to reduce burnt area and wildfire risk transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiago M. Oliveira; Ana M. G. Barros; Alan A. Ager; Paulo M. Fernandes

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires pose complex challenges to policymakers and fire agencies. Fuel break networks and area-wide fuel treatments are risk-management options to reduce losses from large fires. Two fuel management scenarios covering 3% of the fire-prone Algarve region of Portugal and differing in the intensity of treatment in 120-m wide fuel breaks were examined and compared with...

  10. Wildfire risk management on a landscape with public and private ownership: Who pays for protection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwenlyn Busby; Heidi J. Albers

    2010-01-01

    Wildfire, like many natural hazards, affects large landscapes with many landowners and the risk individual owners face depends on both individual and collective protective actions. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit game theoretic model to examine the strategic interaction between landowners' hazard mitigation decisions on a landscape with public and...

  11. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy. Ascher

    2011-01-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

  12. ArcFuels: an ArcMap toolbar for fuel treatment planning and wildfire risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicole M. Vaillant; Alan A. Ager

    2014-01-01

    Fire behavior modeling and geospatial analysis can provide tremendous insight to land managers in defining both the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments in the context of land management goals and public expectations. ArcFuels is a streamlined fuel management planning and wildfire risk assessment system that creates a trans-scale (stand to large landscape...

  13. Assessing watershed-wildfire risks on National Forest System lands in the Rocky Mountain Region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Paul G. Langowski; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Jessica R. Haas; Elise M. Bowne

    2013-01-01

    Wildfires can cause significant negative impacts to water quality with resultant consequences for the environment and human health and safety, as well as incurring substantial rehabilitation and water treatment costs. In this paper we will illustrate how state-of-the-art wildfire simulation modeling and geospatial risk assessment methods can be brought to bear to...

  14. Capacity to adapt to environmental change: evidence from a network of organizations concerned with increasing wildfire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Paige Fischer; Lorien Jasny

    2017-01-01

    Because wildfire size and frequency are expected to increase in many forested areas in the United States, organizations involved in forest and wildfire management could arguably benefit from working together and sharing information to develop strategies for how to adapt to this increasing risk. Social capital theory suggests that actors in cohesive networks are...

  15. Comparing resource values at risk from wildfires with Forest Service fire suppression expenditures: Examples from 2003 western Montana wildfire season

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Calkin; Kevin Hyde; Krista Gebert; Greg Jones

    2005-01-01

    Determining the economic effectiveness of wildfire suppression activities is complicated by difficulties in identifying the area that would have burned and the associated resource value changes had suppression resources not been employed. We developed a case study using break-even analysis for two large wildfires from the 2003 fire season in western Montana -- the...

  16. Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahia Devisscher

    Full Text Available Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can

  17. Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land

  18. Using risk analysis to reveal opportunities for the management of unplanned ignitions in wilderness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Barnett; Carol Miller; Tyron J. Venn

    2016-01-01

    A goal of fire management in wilderness is to allow fire to play its natural ecological role without intervention. Unfortunately, most unplanned ignitions in wilderness are suppressed, in part because of the risk they might pose to values outside of the wilderness. We capitalize on recent advances in fire risk analysis to demonstrate a risk-based approach for revealing...

  19. Determination of the risk of self-ignition of coals and biomass materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Torrent, J; Ramírez-Gómez, Á; Querol-Aragón, E; Grima-Olmedo, C; Medic-Pejic, L

    2012-04-30

    The safe storage, processing and handling of coals and biomass resources requires their tendency to self-ignite be understood; fires caused by self-ignition have occurred on many occasions in ports and at industrial plants. This work provides information on the tendency of several types of coal and four types of biomass to self-ignite. Data were obtained using the isothermal oven procedure and analyzed using the Frank-Kamenetskii method and a scaling procedure, both contemplated in standard EN15188. The results obtained throw light on the optimum volumes and storage times of the studied materials. The results also validate the methodology followed for determining the risk of self-ignition. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

    2013-04-01

    The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  1. Do investments in wildfire risk reduction lead to downstream watershed service outcomes? An integrated wildfire-erosion-economic analysis of return on investment from fuel treatments in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C.; Jones, K.; Addington, R.; Cannon, J.; Cheng, T.; Gannon, B.; Kampf, S. K.; Saavedra, F.; Wei, Y.; Wolk, B.

    2016-12-01

    Large, severe wildfires negatively impact forested watersheds in the Western United States and jeopardize critical ecosystem services. Specifically, severe wildfires increase overland flow and runoff that contains sediment and debris, and cause other natural hazards such as floods. High erosion from burned watersheds can fill water supply reservoirs and clog water filtration systems, which has direct costs to water utilities in the form of increased water treatment costs and damage to infrastructure. With increasing wildfire risk due to global climate change and other factors, municipal water providers and users have been investing in management practices to reduce high-severity wildfire risk and increase source water security. In this research we integrate wildfire and erosion prediction models to estimate the return on investment from wildfire fuel treatments in the Upper South Platte watershed, southwest of Denver, Colorado. Denver Water and the U.S. Forest Service created the Forest-To-Faucets Partnership, one of the first payments for watershed services (PWS) programs in the United States. To date they have spent more than $30 million in the Upper South Platte to restore forests and conduct fuel reduction work across landownerships. However, due to the lack of appropriate analytical tools, it is still unclear what returns are being achieved with these investments, aside from the total number of acres treated. In this analysis we consider three treatment scenarios - current fuel treatment investments, a series of investments based on prioritization criteria, and investments based on accessibility - and model potential burn probability, fire severity and erosion. We then estimate the economic benefits of avoiding runoff using past expenditures by Denver Water and compare these to treatment costs. This research directly informs management practices in the Upper South Platte watershed and provides a framework that can inform decisions to optimize location, size

  2. Wildfire seasonality and land use: when do wildfires prefer to burn?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajocco, Sofia; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Ricotta, Carlo

    2010-05-01

    Because of the increasing anthropogenic fire activity, understanding the role of land-use in shaping wildfire regimes has become a major concern. In the last decade, an increasing number of studies have been carried out on the relationship between land-use and wildfire patterns, in order to identify land-use types where fire behaves selectively, showing a marked preference (or avoidance) in terms of fire incidence. By contrast, the temporal aspects of the relationship between landuse types and wildfire occurrence have received far less attention. The aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the period 2000-2006 to identify land-use types where wildfires occur earlier or later than expected from a random null model. The study highlighted a close relationship between the timing of fire occurrence and land-cover that is primarily governed by two complementary processes: climatic factors that act indirectly on the timing of wildfires determining the spatial distribution of land-use types, and human population and human pressure that directly influence fire ignition. From a practical viewpoint, understanding the temporal trends of wildfires within the different land-use classes can be an effective decision-support tool for fire agencies in managing fire risk and for producing provisional models of fire behavior under changing climatic scenarios and evolving landscapes.

  3. A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac C. Grenfell; Karin L. Riley; Karen C. Short

    2011-01-01

    This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for...

  4. Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochrane, M.A.; Moran, C.J.; Wimberly, M.C.; Baer, A.D.; Finney, M.A.; Beckendorf, K.L.; Eidenshink, J.; Zhu, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72 000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314 000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.

  5. A global assessment of wildfire risks to human and environmental water security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme wildfire events extensively affect hydrosystem stability and generate an important threat to the reliability of the water supply for human and natural communities. While actively studied at the watershed scale, the development of a global vision of wildfire risk to water security has only been undertaken recently, pointing at potential water security concerns in an era of global changes. In order to address this concern, we propose a global-scale analysis of the wildfire risk to surface water supplies based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. Based on the literature, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. Each indicator was assigned a DPSIR category. Then, we collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the wildfire-water risk (WWR). For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, for analysis. Overall, our results show a distinct pattern of medium-to-high risk levels in areas where sizeable wildfire activity, water resources, and water consumption are concomitant, which mainly encompasses temperate and sub-tropical zones. A closer look at hydrobelts reveals differences in the factors driving the risk, with fire activity being the primary factor of risk in the circumboreal forest, and freshwater resource density being prevalent in tropical areas. We also identified major urban areas across the world whose source waters should be protected from extreme fire events, particularly when

  6. Wildfire Perception and Community Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Jason S.; Matarrita-Cascante, David; Stedman, Richard C.; Luloff, A. E.

    2010-01-01

    Given increasing political and financial commitments to wildfire preparedness, risk policy demands that risk identification, assessment, and mitigation activities are balanced among diverse resident groups. Essential for this is the understanding of residents' perceptions of wildfire risks. This study compares wildfire-risk perceptions of…

  7. Is seeing believing? Perceptions of wildfire risk over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia A. Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

    2016-01-01

    Ongoing challenges to understanding how hazard exposure and disaster experiences influence perceived risk lead us to ask: Is seeing believing? We approach risk perception by attending to two components of overall risk perception: perceived probability of an event occurring and perceived consequences if an event occurs. Using a two-period longitudinal data set...

  8. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robyn S; Winter, Patricia L; Maguire, Lynn A; Ascher, Timothy

    2011-05-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206 individuals in the USDA Forest Service with authority to choose how to manage a wildfire event (i.e., line officers and incident command personnel). The results indicate that the subjects exhibited loss aversion, choosing the safe option more often when the consequences of the choice were framed as potential gains, but this tendency was less pronounced among those with risk seeking attitudes. The subjects also exhibited discounting, choosing to minimize short-term over long-term risk due to a belief that future risk could be controlled, but this tendency was less pronounced among those with more experience. Finally, the subjects, in particular those with more experience, demonstrated a status quo bias, choosing suppression more often when their reported status quo was suppression. The results of this study point to a need to carefully construct the decision process to ensure that the uncertainty and conflicting objectives inherent in wildfire management do not result in the overuse of common heuristics. Individual attitudes toward risk or an agency culture of risk aversion may counterbalance such heuristics, whereas increased experience may lead to overconfident intuitive judgments and a failure to incorporate new and relevant information into the decision. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Application of wildfire risk assessment results to wildfire response planning in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Phil Bowden; April Brough; Joe H. Scott; Julie Gilbertson-Day; Alan Taylor; Jennifer Anderson; Jessica Haas

    2016-01-01

    How wildfires are managed is a key determinant of long-term socioecological resiliency and the ability to live with fire. Safe and effective response to fire requires effective pre-fire planning, which is the main focus of this paper. We review general principles of effective federal fire management planning in the U.S., and introduce a framework for incident...

  10. Who Among the Elderly Is Most Vulnerable to Exposure to and Health Risks of Fine Particulate Matter From Wildfire Smoke?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jia Coco; Wilson, Ander; Mickley, Loretta J; Ebisu, Keita; Sulprizio, Melissa P; Wang, Yun; Peng, Roger D; Yue, Xu; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L

    2017-09-15

    Wildfires burn more than 7 million acres in the United States annually, according to the US Forest Service. Little is known about which subpopulations are more vulnerable to health risks from wildfire smoke, including those associated with fine particulate matter. We estimated exposure to fine particles specifically from wildfires, as well as the associations between the presence of wildfire-specific fine particles and the amount of hospital admissions for respiratory causes among subpopulations older than 65 years of age in the western United States (2004-2009). Compared with other populations, higher fractions of persons who were black, lived in urban counties, and lived in California were exposed to more than 1 smoke wave (high-pollution episodes from wildfire smoke). The risks of respiratory admissions on smoke-wave days compared with non-smoke-wave days increased 10.4% (95% confidence interval: 1.9, 19.6) for women and 21.7% (95% confidence interval: 0.4, 47.3) for blacks. Our findings suggest that increased risks of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke was significantly higher for women than for men (10.4% vs. 3.7%), blacks than whites (21.7% vs. 6.9%), and, although associations were not statistically different, people in lower-education counties than higher-educated counties (12.7% vs. 6.1%). Our study raised important environmental justice issues that can inform public health programs and wildfire management. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of wildfires, evidence on vulnerable subpopulations can inform disaster preparedness and the understanding of climate change consequences. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Resilience of diversity-disease risk interactions following wildfire disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devon A. Gaydos; Krishna Pacifici; Ross K. Meentemeyer; David. M. Rizzo

    2017-01-01

    The potential for biodiversity to mitigate risk of infectious diseases in ecological communities – known as the diversity-disease risk hypothesis – is fundamental to understanding links between landscape change and environmental health of forests affected by sudden oak death (SOD). Previous research of the Phytophthora ramorum pathosystem...

  12. Assessing the Impact of Active Land Management in Mitigating Wildfire Threat to Source Water Supply Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bladon, K. D.; Silins, U.; Emelko, M. B.; Flannigan, M.; Dupont, D.; Robinne, F.; Wang, X.; Parisien, M. A.; Stone, M.; Thompson, D. K.; Tymstra, C.; Schroeder, D.; Kienzle, S. W.; Anderson, A.

    2014-12-01

    The vast majority of surface water supplies in Alberta originates in forested regions of the province, and supports approximately 94 municipal utilities, 208 communities, and 67% of the provincial population. These surface water supplies are highly vulnerable to contamination inputs and changing water conditions associated with wildfires. A provincial scale risk analysis framework is being used to investigate the magnitude and likelihood of wildfire occurrence in source water regions to evaluate the potential for altered water quality and quantity. The initial analysis identified which forested regions and which municipal drinking water treatment facilities are most at risk from wildfire. The efficacy of several current and potential landscape treatments to mitigate wildfire threats, along with the likely outcome of these treatments on mitigation of potential impacts of wildfire to drinking water treatment, are being modeled. A Monte Carlo modeling approach incorporating wildfire regime characteristics is used to simulate the ignition and growth of wildfires and generate outcome distributions for the different mitigation strategies. Cumulative changes in water quality at large river basin scales are being modeled and linked to water treatment impacts with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). A critical foundation of this approach is the close interaction of a large, trans-disciplinary team of researchers capable of integrating highly diverse issues of landscape wildfire dynamics, cross-scale water supply issues, and their linkage to downstream risks to drinking water treatment engineering.

  13. Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

  14. Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

    2011-09-01

    In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

  15. Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: Status and needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Hyde; Matthew B. Dickinson; Gil Bohrer; David Calkin; Louisa Evers; Julie Gilbertson-Day; Tessa Nicolet; Kevin Ryan; Christina Tague

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire management has moved beyond a singular focus on suppression, calling for wildfire management for ecological benefit where no critical human assets are at risk. Processes causing direct effects and indirect, long-term ecosystem changes are complex and multidimensional. Robust risk-assessment tools are required that account for highly variable effects on...

  16. Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel S. Madsen; Hylton J. G. Haynes; Sarah M. McCaffrey

    2018-01-01

    As wildland fires have had increasing negative impacts on a range of human values, in many parts of the United States (U.S.) and around the world, collaborative risk reduction efforts among agencies, homeowners, and fire departments are needed to improve wildfire safety and mitigate risk. Using interview data from 46 senior officers from local fire departments around...

  17. Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: Application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott

    2015-01-01

    We develop a novel risk assessment approach that integrates complementary, yet distinct, spatial modeling approaches currently used in wildfire risk assessment. Motivation for this work stems largely from limitations of existing stochastic wildfire simulation systems, which can generate pixel-based outputs of fire behavior as well as polygon-based outputs of simulated...

  18. Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a

  19. Quantification of annual wildfire risk; A spatio-temporal point process approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Pereira

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Policy responses for local and global firemanagement depend heavily on the proper understanding of the fire extent as well as its spatio-temporal variation across any given study area. Annual fire risk maps are important tools for such policy responses, supporting strategic decisions such as location-allocation of equipment and human resources. Here, we define risk of fire in the narrow sense as the probability of its occurrence without addressing the loss component. In this paper, we study the spatio-temporal point patterns of wildfires and model them by a log Gaussian Cox processes. Themean of predictive distribution of randomintensity function is used in the narrow sense, as the annual fire risk map for next year.

  20. PROTERINA-C: assessing the effects of Climate Change to enhance Community adaptation and Civil Protection response to wildfire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossu, Quirico Antonio; Gaetani, Francesco; Bodini, Antonella; Entrade, Erika; Fiorucci, Paolo; Parodi, Ulderica; Canu, Simona; Manca, Floriana

    2010-05-01

    PROTERINA C is a project funded by the EU under the Italy-France Maritime Programme. The objective of PROTERINA C is to make a multi sectorial assessment of the impact of climate change over an area of South Europe particularly affected by large and destructive wildfires: Sardinia, Liguria (Italy) and Corsica (France). A key concern of PROTERINA C is to investigate on the effects that climate change could have on the environment (fuels) and, in turn, on the whole wildfire risk of the considered area. A set of structural and non-structural measures to mitigate the effects of climate change on wildfire risk will be considered and eventually implemented with reference to some pilot areas. In this work we present the results obtained from the Phase 2 of the project, whose objective was to investigate on the influence that possible climate change signals could have on wildfire risk. Observational data (daily rainfall and temperature data) have been analyzed using time series with more than 30 years of complete records. This analysis, including trend analysis of a few selected indices of extreme events, has been used to characterize the territory with reference to the sizing and the timing of the wildfires occurred within the same period of time. The work provided a comprehensive analysis on the effects that climate conditions have on the average state of different kinds of fuels and, in turn, on wildfire risk scenarios, highlighting the biota and the zones of the considered area more exposed to the effects that climate change has on their vulnerability. The partnership of PROTERINA C includes the Civil Protection Directorates and the Environmental Agencies of Liguria and Sardinia Regions, along with scientific and academic bodies from Sardinia, Liguria and Corsica.

  1. Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk assessment for wildfire in the Western United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell

    2012-01-01

    Wildfire is one of the two most significant disturbance agents (the other being insects) in forest ecosystems of the Western United States, and in a warmer climate, will drive changes in forest composition, structure, and function (Dale et al. 2001, McKenzie et al. 2004). Although wildfire is highly stochastic in space and time, sufficient data exist to establish clear...

  2. Living with wildfire in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia A. Champ; Nicholas Flores; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

    2010-01-01

    In this presentation, we describe results of a survey to homeowners living in wildfire-prone areas of two counties along the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. The survey was designed to elicit information on homeowners' experience with wildfire, perceptions of wildfire risk on their property and neighboring properties, mitigation efforts undertaken...

  3. Science You Can Use Bulletin: Fire on the mountain: What motivates homeowners to reduce their wildfire risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sue Miller; Patty Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

    2013-01-01

    New home building in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) continues unabated, despite the high financial and human costs of fighting fires in these areas. The goal of this research is to understand, through surveys and expert assessments, the attitudes and perceptions of WUI homeowners as they relate to taking action to reduce wildfire risk on their property. It also...

  4. How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    David E. Calkin; Jack D. Cohen; Mark A. Finney; Matthew P. Thompson

    2014-01-01

    .... Wildfires in the wildland-urban interface on the Colorado Front Range, resulting in thousands of homes burned and civilian fatalities, although devastating, are not without historical reference...

  5. Outreach programs, peer pressure, and common sense: What motivates homeowners to mitigate wildfire risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah M. McCaffrey; Melanie Stidham; Eric Toman; Bruce. Shindler

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes...

  6. A spatial evaluation of global wildfire-water risks to human and natural systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois-Nicolas Robinne; Kevin D. Bladon; Carol Miller; Marc-Andre Parisien; Jerome Mathieu; Mike D. Flannigan

    2017-01-01

    The large mediatic coverage of recent massive wildfires across the world has emphasized the vulnerability of freshwater resources. The extensive hydrogeomorphic effects from a wildfire can impair the ability of watersheds to provide safe drinking water to downstream communities and high-quality water to maintain riverine ecosystem health. Safeguarding water use for...

  7. Comparing production function models for wildfire risk analysis in the wildland-urban interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2005-01-01

    Wildfires create damages in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) that total hundreds of millions of dollars annually in the United States. Understanding how fires are produced in built-up areas near and within fire prone landscapes requires evaluating and quantifling the roles that humans play in fire regimes. We outline a typology of wildfire production functions (WPFs...

  8. Capacity to adapt to environmental change: evidence from a network of organizations concerned with increasing wildfire risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Paige. Fischer

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Because wildfire size and frequency are expected to increase in many forested areas in the United States, organizations involved in forest and wildfire management could arguably benefit from working together and sharing information to develop strategies for how to adapt to this increasing risk. Social capital theory suggests that actors in cohesive networks are positioned to build trust and mutual understanding of problems and act collectively to address these problems, and that actors engaged with diverse partners are positioned to access new information and resources that are important for innovation and complex problem solving. We investigated the patterns of interaction within a network of organizations involved in forest and wildfire management in Oregon, USA, for evidence of structural conditions that create opportunities for collective action and learning. We used descriptive statistical analysis of social network data gathered through interviews to characterize the structure of the network and exponential random graph modeling to identify key factors in the formation of network ties. We interpreted our findings through the lens of social capital theory to identify implications for the network's capacity to engage in collective action and complex problem-solving about how to adapt to environmental change. We found that tendencies to associate with others with similar management goals, geographic emphases, and attitudes toward wildfire were strong mechanisms shaping network structure, potentially constraining interactions among organizations with diverse information and resources and limiting opportunities for learning and complex problem-solving needed for adaptation. In particular, we found that organizations with fire protection and forest restoration goals comprised distinct networks despite sharing concern about the problem of increasing wildfire risk.

  9. Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, Alan A; Day, Michelle A; McHugh, Charles W; Short, Karen; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Finney, Mark A; Calkin, David E

    2014-12-01

    Substantial investments in fuel management activities on national forests in the western US are part of a national strategy to reduce human and ecological losses from catastrophic wildfire and create fire resilient landscapes. Prioritizing these investments within and among national forests remains a challenge, partly because a comprehensive assessment that establishes the current wildfire risk and exposure does not exist, making it difficult to identify national priorities and target specific areas for fuel management. To gain a broader understanding of wildfire exposure in the national forest system, we analyzed an array of simulated and empirical data on wildfire activity and fuel treatment investments on the 82 western US national forests. We first summarized recent fire data to examine variation among the Forests in ignition frequency and burned area in relation to investments in fuel reduction treatments. We then used simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale spatial variation in burn probability and intensity. We also estimated the probability of a mega-fire event on each of the Forests, and the transmission of fires ignited on national forests to the surrounding urban interface. The analysis showed a good correspondence between recent area burned and predictions from the simulation models. The modeling also illustrated the magnitude of the variation in both burn probability and intensity among and within Forests. Simulated burn probabilities in most instances were lower than historical, reflecting fire exclusion on many national forests. Simulated wildfire transmission from national forests to the urban interface was highly variable among the Forests. We discuss how the results of the study can be used to prioritize investments in hazardous fuel reduction within a comprehensive multi-scale risk management framework. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Wildfires and post-fire erosion risk in a coastal area under severe anthropic pressure associated with the touristic fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canu, Annalisa; Arca, Bachisio; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Valeriano Pintus, Gian; Ferrara, Roberto; Duce, Pierpaolo

    2017-04-01

    In the last decades a rapid and intense development of the tourism industry led to an increasing of anthropic pressure on several coastal areas of Sardinia. This fact not only modified the coastal aesthetics, but has also generated an increase of risk for the environment. This phenomenon affected also the ancient structure of the landscape with a negative impact mainly caused by the following factors: land abandonment, wildfire occurrence, post-fire erosion, urbanization. These regional changes can be analyzed in detail by considering the geo-diachronic dynamics. The main objectives of this work were i) to perform a diachronic analysis of land use and land cover dynamics, ii) to analyse the recent dynamics of wildfires, and iii) to predict the soil erosion risk in relation to land use change occurred between the 1950s and the 2000s. The study was realized in a coastal area located in North-East Sardinia where the geo-historical processes were summarized and organized in a geographic information system that has been employed to examine the landscape variations at three different time steps: 1954, 1977 and 2000. In addition, different scenarios of wildfire propagation were simulated by FlamMap in order to estimate the spatial pattern of fire danger factors in the study area. Afterwards, maps of post-fire soil erosion were produced to identify the temporal and spatial variations of the erosion risk. The results show how the changes in land use and the significant and rapid increase of the residential areas affect the risk of both wildfires and post-fire soil erosion. The study reveals the capabilities of this type of approach and can be used by management agencies and policy makers e in sustainable landscape management planning. This approach can be extended to other regions of the Mediterranean basin characterized by complex interactions among landscape and anthropic factors affecting the environmental risk.

  11. Assessing landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources in a Mediterranean area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcasena, Fermín J; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

    2015-05-01

    We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km(2) located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

  12. Ignition potential of rifle bullets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trevor Maynard; Mark Finney; Sara McAllister; Ian Grob

    2013-01-01

    In January 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service's Rocky Mountain Research Station and National Technology and Development Centers performed experiments to evaluate the potential for rifle bullets to ignite organic matter after striking hard surfaces. Outdoor target shooting is often suspected as a wildfire cause, but investigators currently do...

  13. Investigation of the decline in reported smoking-caused wildfires in the USA from 2000 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    David T. Butry; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Douglas S. Thomas

    2014-01-01

    The number of smoking-caused wildfires has been falling nationwide. In national forests in 2011, smoking-caused wildfires represented only 10% of their 1980 level. No other cause of wildfire has experienced this level of decline. For 12 states, we evaluate the rate of smoking-caused wildfires and find it is a function of weather, other ignitions, the number of adult...

  14. Examining alternative fuel management strategies and the relative contribution of National Forest System land to wildfire risk to adjacent homes - A pilot assessment on the Sierra National Forest, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

    2016-01-01

    Determining the degree of risk that wildfires pose to homes, where across the landscape the risk originates, and who can best mitigate risk are integral elements of effective co-management of wildfire risk. Developing assessments and tools to help provide this information is a high priority for federal land management agencies such as the US Forest Service (...

  15. Wildfire Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M.

    2013-12-01

    Decisions relating to wildfire management are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, and are made by a broad range of individuals, across a multitude of environmental and socioeconomic contexts. In this presentation I will review progress towards identification and characterization of uncertainties and how this information can support wildfire decision-making. First, I will review a typology of uncertainties common to wildfire management, highlighting some of the more salient sources of uncertainty and how they present challenges to assessing wildfire risk. This discussion will cover the expanding role of burn probability modeling, approaches for characterizing fire effects, and the role of multi-criteria decision analysis, and will provide illustrative examples of integrated wildfire risk assessment across a variety of planning scales. Second, I will describe a related uncertainty typology that focuses on the human dimensions of wildfire management, specifically addressing how social, psychological, and institutional factors may impair cost-effective risk mitigation. This discussion will encompass decision processes before, during, and after fire events, with a specific focus on active management of complex wildfire incidents. An improved ability to characterize uncertainties faced in wildfire management could lead to improved delivery of decision support, targeted communication strategies, and ultimately to improved wildfire management outcomes.

  16. Living with wildfire in Telluride Fire Protection District, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    James R. Meldrum; Lilia C. Falk; Jamie Gomez; Christopher M. Barth; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Travis Warziniack; Patricia A. Champ

    2017-01-01

    Residents in the wildland-urban interface can play an important role in reducing wildfires’ negative effects by performing wildfire risk mitigation on their properties. This report offers insight into the wildfire risk mitigation activities and related considerations such as attitudes, experiences, and concern about wildfire, for residents of the Telluride Fire...

  17. Globally-Applicable Predictive Wildfire Model   a Temporal-Spatial GIS Based Risk Analysis Using Data Driven Fuzzy Logic Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Dool, G.

    2017-11-01

    This study (van den Dool, 2017) is a proof of concept for a global predictive wildfire model, in which the temporal-spatial characteristics of wildfires are placed in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and the risk analysis is based on data-driven fuzzy logic functions. The data sources used in this model are available as global datasets, but subdivided into three pilot areas: North America (California/Nevada), Europe (Spain), and Asia (Mongolia), and are downscaled to the highest resolution (3-arc second). The GIS is constructed around three themes: topography, fuel availability and climate. From the topographical data, six derived sub-themes are created and converted to a fuzzy membership based on the catchment area statistics. The fuel availability score is a composite of four data layers: land cover, wood loads, biomass, biovolumes. As input for the climatological sub-model reanalysed daily averaged, weather-related data is used, which is accumulated to a global weekly time-window (to account for the uncertainty within the climatological model) and forms the temporal component of the model. The final product is a wildfire risk score (from 0 to 1) by week, representing the average wildfire risk in an area. To compute the potential wildfire risk the sub-models are combined usinga Multi-Criteria Approach, and the model results are validated against the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.

  18. GLOBALLY-APPLICABLE PREDICTIVE WILDFIRE MODEL   A TEMPORAL–SPATIAL GIS BASED RISK ANALYSIS USING DATA DRIVEN FUZZY LOGIC FUNCTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. van den Dool

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study (van den Dool, 2017 is a proof of concept for a global predictive wildfire model, in which the temporal–spatial characteristics of wildfires are placed in a Geographical Information System (GIS, and the risk analysis is based on data-driven fuzzy logic functions. The data sources used in this model are available as global datasets, but subdivided into three pilot areas: North America (California/Nevada, Europe (Spain, and Asia (Mongolia, and are downscaled to the highest resolution (3-arc second. The GIS is constructed around three themes: topography, fuel availability and climate. From the topographical data, six derived sub-themes are created and converted to a fuzzy membership based on the catchment area statistics. The fuel availability score is a composite of four data layers: land cover, wood loads, biomass, biovolumes. As input for the climatological sub-model reanalysed daily averaged, weather-related data is used, which is accumulated to a global weekly time-window (to account for the uncertainty within the climatological model and forms the temporal component of the model. The final product is a wildfire risk score (from 0 to 1 by week, representing the average wildfire risk in an area. To compute the potential wildfire risk the sub-models are combined usinga Multi-Criteria Approach, and the model results are validated against the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.

  19. A burning problem: social dynamics of disaster risk reduction through wildfire mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan Charnley; Melissa R. Poe; Alan A. Ager; Thomas A. Spies; Emily K. Platt; Keith A. Olsen

    2015-01-01

    Disasters result from hazards affecting vulnerable people. Most disasters research by anthropologists focuses on vulnerability; this article focuses on natural hazards. We use the case of wildfire mitigation on United States Forest Service lands in the northwestern United States to examine social, political, and economic variables at multiple scales that influence fire...

  20. Towards enhanced risk management: Planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher J. Dunn; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

    2017-01-01

    Wildfire’s economic, ecological and social impacts are on the rise, fostering the realisation that business-as-usual fire management in the United States is not sustainable. Current response strategies may be inefficient and contributing to unnecessary responder exposure to hazardous conditions, but significant knowledge gaps constrain clear and comprehensive...

  1. How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Calkin; Jack D. Cohen; Mark A. Finney; Matthew P. Thompson

    2014-01-01

    Recent fire seasons in the western United States are some of the most damaging and costly on record. Wildfires in the wildlandurban interface on the Colorado Front Range, resulting in thousands of homes burned and civilian fatalities, although devastating, are not without historical reference. These fires are consistent with the characteristics of large, damaging,...

  2. Before, During, and After a Wildfire

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2007-11-01

    More and more people are making their homes in woodland settings – in or near forests, rural areas, or remote mountain sites - areas in which wildfires are more likely to occur. Wildfires often begin unnoticed. They spread quickly, igniting brush, trees, and homes. CDC recommends taking steps before, during, and after local wildfires to reduce the effect they have on your life.  Created: 11/1/2007 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 11/1/2007.

  3. FireSmart®-ForestWise: Managing Wildlife and Wildfire Risk in the Wildland/Urban Interface-a Canadian Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan Westhaver; Richard D. Revel; Brad C. Hawkes

    2007-01-01

    Reducing the risk of losses from wildfires that threaten homes and communities is a growing priority in Canada. To reduce risk, “FireSmart®” standards have been adopted nationwide for managing forest fuel. However, these standards largely disregard interests of wildlife and conservation of wildlife habitat – thus raising concerns...

  4. AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalabokidis, Kostas; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark; Athanasis, Nikos; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Vasilakos, Christos

    2016-03-01

    We describe a Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool to manage wildland fire hazards in Greece (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing online access to information that is essential for wildfire management. The system uses a number of spatial and non-spatial data sources to support key system functionalities. Land use/land cover maps were produced by combining field inventory data with high-resolution multispectral satellite images (RapidEye). These data support wildfire simulation tools that allow the users to examine potential fire behavior and hazard with the Minimum Travel Time fire spread algorithm. End-users provide a minimum number of inputs such as fire duration, ignition point and weather information to conduct a fire simulation. AEGIS offers three types of simulations, i.e., single-fire propagation, point-scale calculation of potential fire behavior, and burn probability analysis, similar to the FlamMap fire behavior modeling software. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were utilized for wildfire ignition risk assessment based on various parameters, training methods, activation functions, pre-processing methods and network structures. The combination of ANNs and expected burned area maps are used to generate integrated output map of fire hazard prediction. The system also incorporates weather information obtained from remote automatic weather stations and weather forecast maps. The system and associated computation algorithms leverage parallel processing techniques (i.e., High Performance Computing and Cloud Computing) that ensure computational power required for real-time application. All AEGIS functionalities are accessible to authorized end-users through a web-based graphical user interface. An innovative smartphone application, AEGIS App, also

  5. Preliminary results from a survey of U.S. Forest Service wildfire managers' attitudes toward aviation personnel exposure and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew Wibbenmeyer; Michael Hand; David Calkin

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (USFS) has, in recent years, increasingly emphasized the importance of safety to its employees, but wildfire management remains a risky endeavor. While wildfire management decisions affecting safety and exposure of firefighters to the wildland fire environment may be aided by decision support tools such the Wildfire...

  6. Are wildfire management resources in the United States efficiently allocated to protect resources at risk? A case study from Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derek T. O' Donnell; Tyron J. Venna; David E. Calkin

    2014-01-01

    Federal wildfire management agencies in the United States are under substantial pressure to reduce and economically justify their expenditures. To support economically efficient management of wildfires, managers need better estimates of the resource benefits and avoided damage costs associated with alternative wildfire management strategies. This paper reports findings...

  7. Identify methods to reduce the risk of explosions and fires caused by frictional ignition hazards.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Phillips, HR

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available This report describes outcome of a literature review of the extensive research conducted worldwide into the phenomenon of frictional ignition, a review of whether machines currently used in South Africa comply with known principles for reducing...

  8. Wildfire in the United Kingdom: status and key issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julia. McMorrow

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the status of wildfire risk in the United Kingdom and examines some of the key issues in U.K. wildfire management. Wildfires challenge the resources of U.K. Fire and Rescue Services (FRSs), especially in dry years, yet FRSs are poorly equipped and trained to deal with wildfire. A brief geography of U.K. wildfires is presented using fire statistics...

  9. Statistical modelling of wildfire size and intensity: a step toward meteorological forecasting of summer extreme fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, C.; Keribin, C.; Drobinski, P.; Turquety, S.

    2015-12-01

    In this article we investigate the use of statistical methods for wildfire risk assessment in the Mediterranean Basin using three meteorological covariates, the 2 m temperature anomaly, the 10 m wind speed and the January-June rainfall occurrence anomaly. We focus on two remotely sensed characteristic fire variables, the burnt area (BA) and the fire radiative power (FRP), which are good proxies for fire size and intensity respectively. Using the fire data we determine an adequate parametric distribution function which fits best the logarithm of BA and FRP. We reconstruct the conditional density function of both variables with respect to the chosen meteorological covariates. These conditional density functions for the size and intensity of a single event give information on fire risk and can be used for the estimation of conditional probabilities of exceeding certain thresholds. By analysing these probabilities we find two fire risk regimes different from each other at the 90 % confidence level: a "background" summer fire risk regime and an "extreme" additional fire risk regime, which corresponds to higher probability of occurrence of larger fire size or intensity associated with specific weather conditions. Such a statistical approach may be the ground for a future fire risk alert system.

  10. Piloted ignition of live forest fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. McAllister; I. Grenfell; A. Hadlow; W. M. Jolly; M. Finney; J. Cohen

    2012-01-01

    The most unpredictable and uncontrollable wildfires are those that burn in the crowns of live vegetation. The fuels that feed these crown fires are mostly live, green foliage. Unfortunately, little is known about how live fuels combust. To understand how live fuels burn, piloted ignition experiments were performed with lodgepole pine and Douglas-fir. The thermal...

  11. Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paveglio, Travis B; Edgeley, Catrin M; Stasiewicz, Amanda M

    2018-03-02

    A growing body of research focuses on identifying patterns among human populations most at risk from hazards such as wildfire and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. Emerging policy surrounding wildfire management emphasizes the need to better understand such social vulnerability-or human populations' potential exposure to and sensitivity from wildfire-related impacts, including their ability to reduce negative impacts from the hazard. Studies of social vulnerability to wildfire often pair secondary demographic data with a variety of vegetation and wildfire simulation models to map potential risk. However, many of the assumptions made by those researchers about the demographic, spatial or perceptual factors that influence social vulnerability to wildfire have not been fully evaluated or tested against objective measures of potential wildfire risk. The research presented here utilizes self-reported surveys, GIS data, and wildfire simulations to test the relationships between select perceptual, demographic, and property characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for potential wildfire related damages or exposure. We also evaluate how those characteristics relate to property owners' performance of mitigations or support for fire management. Our results suggest that parcel characteristics provide the most significant explanation of variability in wildfire exposure, sensitivity and overall wildfire risk, while the positive relationship between income or property values and components of social vulnerability stands in contrast to typical assumptions from existing literature. Respondents' views about agency or government management helped explain a significant amount of variance in wildfire sensitivity, while the importance of wildfire risk in selecting a residence was an important influence on mitigation action. We use these and other results from our effort to discuss updated

  12. Understanding gaps between the risk perceptions of wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents and wildfire professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Travis Warziniack; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

    2015-01-01

    Research across a variety of risk domains finds that the risk perceptions of professionals and the public differ. Such risk perception gaps occur if professionals and the public understand individual risk factors differently or if they aggregate risk factors into overall risk differently. The nature of such divergences, whether based on objective inaccuracies or on...

  13. Predicting wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia Andrews; Mark Finney; Mark Fischetti

    2007-01-01

    The number of catastrophic wildfires in the U.S. has been steadily rising. The nation has spent more than $1 billion annually to suppress such fires in eight of the past 10 years. In 2005 a record 8.7 million acres burned, only to be succeeded by 9.9 million acres in 2006. And this year is off to a furious start. To a great extent, the increase in fires stems from a...

  14. Drivers of Wildfire Occurrence Patterns in Wetlands of Riverine Bioregion in New South Wales, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Lim, Samsung; Sharples, Jason

    2017-04-01

    In inland wetlands in Australia, wildfires not only threaten human lives and cause economic loss as in other landscapes but also injure or kill fire-sensitive wetland species such as river red gums. Therefore, understanding of the drivers regulating wetland wildfire occurrence patterns is vital from the perspectives of fire risk reduction and ecosystem management. There are currently very few published quantitative studies characterising wildfire occurrence in inland wetland areas in Australia. This study aims to address the following questions in a quantitative way: What determines the occurrence of inland wetland wildfires, and are these factors different compared with those in other ecosystems? Which factors play more important roles than the others? In this study, historical wildfire records over the period of 1970-2016 and across the Riverina bioregion of New South Wales (NSW) are sourced from a number of fire management agencies, with lightning- and human-caused fires being analysed separately. Bivariate and multivariate Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) are developed to understand top-down (weather) and bottom-up (vegetation and ignition source) factors acting on the patterns of wetland wildfire occurrence. The relative importance of these factors is evaluated based on their contribution to the final model. Fires are expected to be less likely to start from wetlands than other landscapes since the fine fuel loads are generally low and fuels are usually too moist to burn. However, prolonged drought can increase the probability of wetland wildfire occurrence due to the drying out of the understory fuels. Fires are intuitively less likely to occur at the inundation area or during flooding periods. The relationship between fire occurrence probability and flood frequency is expected to be non-linear, with fire probability being the highest at intermediate flooding frequencies because flooding of different frequency regulates biomass accumulation and fuel moisture

  15. Effects of forest management on California Spotted Owls: implications for reducing wildfire risk in fire‐prone forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tempel, Douglas J; Gutiérrez, R J; Whitmore, Sheila A; Reetz, Matthew J; Stoelting, Ricka E; Berigan, William J; Seamans, Mark E; Zachariah Peery, M

    Management of many North American forests is challenged by the need to balance the potentially competing objectives of reducing risks posed by high-severity wildfires and protecting threatened species. In the Sierra Nevada, California, concern about high-severity fires has increased in recent decades but uncertainty exists over the effects of fuel-reduction treatments on species associated with older forests, such as the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). Here, we assessed the effects of forest conditions, fuel reductions, and wildfire on a declining population of Spotted Owls in the central Sierra Nevada using 20 years of demographic data collected at 74 Spotted Owl territories. Adult survival and territory colonization probabilities were relatively high, while territory extinction probability was relatively low, especially in territories that had relatively large amounts of high canopy cover (≥70%) forest. Reproduction was negatively associated with the area of medium-intensity timber harvests characteristic of proposed fuel treatments. Our results also suggested that the amount of edge between older forests and shrub/sapling vegetation and increased habitat heterogeneity may positively influence demographic rates of Spotted Owls. Finally, high-severity fire negatively influenced the probability of territory colonization. Despite correlations between owl demographic rates and several habitat variables, life stage simulation (sensitivity) analyses indicated that the amount of forest with high canopy cover was the primary driver of population growth and equilibrium occupancy at the scale of individual territories. Greater than 90% of medium-intensity harvests converted high-canopy-cover forests into lower-canopy-cover vegetation classes, suggesting that landscape-scale fuel treatments in such stands could have short-term negative impacts on populations of California Spotted Owls. Moreover, high-canopy-cover forests declined by an average of

  16. Ecosystem Service Valuation through Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Design, Governance, and Outcomes of the Flagstaff Watershed Protection Project (FWPP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roy Miller

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The full value of benefits rendered from healthy watersheds is difficult to estimate, and ecosystem service (ES valuation sometimes necessarily occurs in the form of costs incurred or avoided. Along these lines, social-ecological systems including Payment for Watershed Services (PWS are increasing in frequency and can help land management entities to bridge budget shortfalls for funding needed watershed restoration forestry treatments. The Flagstaff Watershed Protection Project (FWPP is a bond-financed wildfire risk mitigation partnership and PWS program in Northern Arizona, the only forest management project that utilizes a municipal bond as the financial mechanism in conjunction with a partnership governance structure to invest in federal land management. The purpose of this research was to describe this new governance structure to understand the potential benefits to communities and federal land management agencies for protecting watershed services. Data were derived from document review and key informant interviews (n = 9. FWPP institutional design and governance structures were tailored to maximize community strengths and encompassed several advantages over traditional federal land management models; these advantages include increased collaboration and institutional support, financial security, and public approval. The FWPP represents an innovative PWS system that can help showcase unique community and federal forest management partnerships that benefit watershed health in western US communities.

  17. Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michele Salis; Alan A. Ager; Fermin J. Alcasena; Bachisio Arca; Mark A. Finney; Grazia Pellizzaro; Donatella Spano

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn...

  18. Wildfires and tourist behaviors in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brijesh Thapa; Ignatius Cahyanto; Stephen M. Holland; James D. Absher

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of wildfires on tourism have largely been examined with emphasis on economic losses and recovery strategies. Given the limited research from a demand perspective, this study examined tourist risk perceptions and reactionary behaviors toward wildfires in Florida. Data (N ¼ 771) was collected among a U.S. sample of non-resident overnight leisure travelers...

  19. The Spotting Distribution of Wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Martin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In wildfire science, spotting refers to non-local creation of new fires, due to downwind ignition of brands launched from a primary fire. Spotting is often mentioned as being one of the most difficult problems for wildfire management, because of its unpredictable nature. Since spotting is a stochastic process, it makes sense to talk about a probability distribution for spotting, which we call the spotting distribution. Given a location ahead of the fire front, we would like to know how likely is it to observe a spot fire at that location in the next few minutes. The aim of this paper is to introduce a detailed procedure to find the spotting distribution. Most prior modelling has focused on the maximum spotting distance, or on physical subprocesses. We will use mathematical modelling, which is based on detailed physical processes, to derive a spotting distribution. We discuss the use and measurement of this spotting distribution in fire spread, fire management and fire breaching. The appendix of this paper contains a comprehensive review of the relevant underlying physical sub-processes of fire plumes, launching fire brands, wind transport, falling and terminal velocity, combustion during transport, and ignition upon landing.

  20. Thermal Ignition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boettcher, Philipp Andreas

    Accidental ignition of flammable gases is a critical safety concern in many industrial applications. Particularly in the aviation industry, the main areas of concern on an aircraft are the fuel tank and adjoining regions, where spilled fuel has a high likelihood of creating a flammable mixture. To this end, a fundamental understanding of the ignition phenomenon is necessary in order to develop more accurate test methods and standards as a means of designing safer air vehicles. The focus of this work is thermal ignition, particularly auto-ignition with emphasis on the effect of heating rate, hot surface ignition and flame propagation, and puffing flames. Combustion of hydrocarbon fuels is traditionally separated into slow reaction, cool flame, and ignition regimes based on pressure and temperature. Standard tests, such as the ASTM E659, are used to determine the lowest temperature required to ignite a specific fuel mixed with air at atmospheric pressure. It is expected that the initial pressure and the rate at which the mixture is heated also influences the limiting temperature and the type of combustion. This study investigates the effect of heating rate, between 4 and 15 K/min, and initial pressure, in the range of 25 to 100 kPa, on ignition of n-hexane air mixtures. Mixtures with equivalence ratio ranging from 0.6 to 1.2 were investigated. The problem is also modeled computationally using an extension of Semenov's classical auto-ignition theory with a detailed chemical mechanism. Experiments and simulations both show that in the same reactor either a slow reaction or an ignition event can take place depending on the heating rate. Analysis of the detailed chemistry demonstrates that a mixture which approaches the ignition region slowly undergoes a significant modification of its composition. This change in composition induces a progressive shift of the explosion limit until the mixture is no longer flammable. A mixture that approaches the ignition region

  1. A stochastic germ-grain model to estimate wildfire induced debris flow risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, G. J.; Jones, O. D.; Nyman, P.; Lane, P. N.

    2011-12-01

    Debris flows following wildfire can wash sediment and ash into streams and reservoirs, contaminating water supplies for cities and towns. The fire behavior and erosion processes preceding these contamination events are frequently modeled separately. However climate change may alter both the size and frequency of fires, as well as the intensity and frequency of post-fire erosive storm events. What are the water quality risks associated with these possible simultaneous changes to both the fire and erosive rainfall regimes? When assessing changes in risk due to climate change we argue that the most important property of the system is the "volume" of the intersection in space and time of burnt areas and debris-flow generating storms. The modeling focus should therefore be directed at quantifying changes in the overlap (in space and time) between fire and debris-flow generating storm events, rather than at the geophysical processes that drive them individually. In this presentation we propose the use of a germ-grain based coverage process model to quantify the size of this intersection as a function of the regional fire regime and the local rainfall properties. In this new model we consider fires and debris-flow generating storms as independent stochastic processes with properties of spatial extent, temporal duration, and frequency of occurrence. The approach is illustrated in Figure 1, where we have superimposed random realizations of fires (large discs) and erosive storm processes (small discs) in space (horizontal axis) and time (vertical axis). The volume of intersection of the two processes, shown by the overlap of the large and small discs, gives a measure of hazard of debris flows, and we can quantify how the magnitude of this hazard changes in response to changing fire and rainfall regimes. We use fire history and climatology data to parameterize the germ-grain model for historic conditions in the South East of Australia to illustrate how the model parameters

  2. How wildfire risk is related to urban planning and Fire Weather Index in SE France (1990-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, D M; Carrega, P; Ren, Y; Caillouet, P; Bouillon, C; Robert, S

    2018-04-15

    Wildfires burn >450,000ha of forest every year in Euro-Mediterranean countries. Many fires originate in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) where housing density and weather conditions affect fire occurrence. Housing density is determined by long term land use policies while weather conditions evolve quickly. The first objective was to quantify the impacts of land use policy on WUI characteristics and fire risk in SE France during 1990-2012. The second objective was to quantify how Fire Weather Index (FWI) is related to fire occurrence. WUI was mapped from 1990, 1999, and 2012 building layers and crossed with a NDVI derived vegetation layer. In all, 12 WUI categories were derived: 4 building density classes and 3 vegetation layers. The I87 FWI was based on daily temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and soil water content. Despite a 30% increase in the number of new buildings, WUI area increased by only 5% as new housing filled in open space in existing WUI area. This trend can be linked to national level urban planning legislation and forest fire protection laws. Major driver variables determining housing location were aspect, slope, and distance to city centers. Fire frequency and burned area were nonlinearly related to FWI: 73% of the 99 fires occurred during weeks with FWI values ≥90 even though these accounted for only 44% of all weeks. Burned area was even more sensitive to FWI since 97% of total burned area occurred during weeks with mean FWI values ≥90. All days with burned areas >100ha had FWI values >150. The study demonstrated that WUI legislation can be an efficient tool to limit WUI fire risk. FWI results suggest the predicted increase in extreme summer heat events with global warming could increase burned area as firefighting resources are stretched beyond capacity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Probabilistic soil erosion modeling using the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMIT) after wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. R. Robichaud; W. J. Elliot; J. W. Wagenbrenner

    2011-01-01

    The decision of whether or not to apply post-fire hillslope erosion mitigation treatments, and if so, where these treatments are most needed, is a multi-step process. Land managers must assess the risk of damaging runoff and sediment delivery events occurring on the unrecovered burned hillslope. We developed the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) to address this need...

  4. From Data to Knowledge — Faster: GOES Early Fire Detection System to Inform Operational Wildfire Response and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koltunov, A.; Quayle, B.; Prins, E. M.; Ambrosia, V. G.; Ustin, S.

    2014-12-01

    Fire managers at various levels require near-real-time, low-cost, systematic, and reliable early detection capabilities with minimal latency to effectively respond to wildfire ignitions and minimize the risk of catastrophic development. The GOES satellite images collected for vast territories at high temporal frequencies provide a consistent and reliable source for operational active fire mapping realized by the WF-ABBA algorithm. However, their potential to provide early warning or rapid confirmation of initial fire ignition reports from conventional sources remains underutilized, partly because the operational wildfire detection has been successfully optimized for users and applications for which timeliness of initial detection is a low priority, contrasting to the needs of first responders. We present our progress in developing the GOES Early Fire Detection (GOES-EFD) system, a collaborative effort led by University of California-Davis and USDA Forest Service. The GOES-EFD specifically focuses on first detection timeliness for wildfire incidents. It is automatically trained for a monitored scene and capitalizes on multiyear cross-disciplinary algorithm research. Initial retrospective tests in Western US demonstrate significantly earlier identification detection of new ignitions than existing operational capabilities and a further improvement prospect. The GOES-EFD-β prototype will be initially deployed for the Western US region to process imagery from GOES-NOP and the rapid and 4 times higher spatial resolution imagery from GOES-R — the upcoming next generation of GOES satellites. These and other enhanced capabilities of GOES-R are expected to significantly improve the timeliness of fire ignition information from GOES-EFD.

  5. Spatial and temporal changes in land cover and its relation to the wildfire risk in Montes de Zuera (NE-Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iñiguez-Remón, E.; Badía-Villas, D.; Ibarra-Benlloch, P.

    2012-04-01

    Land cover changes in a territory can be as result of the diverse human activities, and also, by the dynamic natural ecosystem. The analysis of these changes constitutes a fundamental indicator in improving the knowledge towards a potential sustainable development (OSE, 2006). This paper analyzes the evolution of the land cover at detailed scale 1:5000, along the years 1957, 1984, and 2005, in the Montes de Zuera (UTM: 665000-680000 East /4640000-4650000 North), nearby Zaragoza city (NE-Spain). Despite they are located in the midst of the semiarid Central Ebro Basin, the area have an uncommon, extensive and dense forest cover. For these reasons, Montes de Zuera form part of the "Natura 2000 Network" of Aragon. Because this region has a high incidence of wildfires and, as a measure to prevent them, land cover changes have been analyzed in this study. To get this objective, a methodology is developed based on GIS and Remote Sensing tools, and this makes it possible to establish the relationship between the dynamic land cover and "fire hazard". According to FAO (1986), fire hazard is the measure of risk of wildfire, which is explained by the presence of combustible materials available to burn (Chuvieco et al, 2004). It is understood that the areas with major fire hazard present a high vulnerability to suffer vast wildfires. To develop this work, the type of vegetation, its distribution and the state of maturity of the forest masses are analyzed. Moreover, the wildfires that occurred during the last five decades have been located, and the forest masses and the processes (anthropic and natural) associated to them have been characterized in the regions affected by vast wildfires. Moreover, the cartography of fire hazard is obtained, and this is useful tool to fre prevention and to promote the sustainable management of the forest masses. Two regions with high rate of fire hazards are differentiated (region 1 and region 2). The Aleppo pine cover occupies the majority of

  6. Measuring the efficacy of a wildfire education program in Colorado Springs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    G.H. Donovan; P.A. Champ; D.T. Butry

    2007-01-01

    We examine an innovative wildfire risk education program in Colorado Springs, which rated the wildfire risk of 35,000 homes in the city's wildland urban interface. Evidence from home sales before and after the program's implementation suggests that the program was successful at changing homebuyers' attitudes toward wildfire risk, particularly preferences...

  7. Influence of fuels, weather and the built environment on the exposure of property to wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penman, Trent D.; Collins, Luke S.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment – either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates.

  8. Influence of fuels, weather and the built environment on the exposure of property to wildfire.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trent D Penman

    Full Text Available Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment--either fuel reduction (prescribed fire or fuel removal (fuel breaks. Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates.

  9. Wildfire Risk Main Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The model combines three modeled fire behavior parameters (rate of spread, flame length, crown fire potential) and one modeled ecological health measure (fire regime...

  10. Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew Thompson; David Calkin; Joe H. Scott; Michael. Hand

    2017-01-01

    Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and risk‐based information to support the management of active wildfire incidents. WFDSS offers a wide range...

  11. Wildfires in Chernobyl-contaminated forests and risks to the population and the environment: a new nuclear disaster about to happen?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Balkanski, Yves; Cozic, Anne; Hao, Wei Min; Møller, Anders Pape

    2014-12-01

    Radioactive contamination in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia after the Chernobyl accident left large rural and forest areas to their own fate. Forest succession in conjunction with lack of forest management started gradually transforming the landscape. During the last 28 years dead wood and litter have dramatically accumulated in these areas, whereas climate change has increased temperature and favored drought. The present situation in these forests suggests an increased risk of wildfires, especially after the pronounced forest fires of 2010, which remobilized Chernobyl-deposited radioactive materials transporting them thousand kilometers far. For the aforementioned reasons, we study the consequences of different forest fires on the redistribution of (137)Cs. Using the time frequency of the fires that occurred in the area during 2010, we study three scenarios assuming that 10%, 50% and 100% of the area are burnt. We aim to sensitize the scientific community and the European authorities for the foreseen risks from radioactivity redistribution over Europe. The global model LMDZORINCA that reads deposition density of radionuclides and burnt area from satellites was used, whereas risks for the human and animal population were calculated using the Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model and the computerized software ERICA Tool, respectively. Depending on the scenario, whereas between 20 and 240 humans may suffer from solid cancers, of which 10-170 may be fatal. ERICA predicts insignificant changes in animal populations from the fires, whereas the already extreme radioactivity background plays a major role in their living quality. The resulting releases of (137)Cs after hypothetical wildfires in Chernobyl's forests are classified as high in the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES). The estimated cancer incidents and fatalities are expected to be comparable to those predicted for Fukushima. This is attributed to the fact that the distribution of radioactive fallout after the

  12. Community wildfire protection plans: enhancing collaboration and building scoial capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel R. Williams; Pamela J. Jakes; Sam Burns; Antony Cheng

    2009-01-01

    The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 (HFRA) was enacted to reduce wildfire risk to communities and other at-risk lands through a collaborative process of planning, prioritizing and implementing hazardous fuel reduction projects. One of the key features of HFRA is the development of community wildfire protection plans (CWPPs). We studied the development of CWPPs...

  13. Modelling Spatial Patterns and Drivers of Wildfires in Honduras Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez Vasquez, M. C.; Chen, C. F.; Chiang, S. H.

    2016-12-01

    Forests in Honduras are one of the most important resources as they provide a wide range of environmental, economic, and social benefits. However, they are endangered as a result of the relentless occurrence of wildfires during the dry season. Despite the knowledge acquired by the population concerning the effects of wildfires, the frequency is increasing, a pattern attributable to the numerous ignition sources linked to human activity. The purpose of this study is to integrate the wildfire occurrences throughout the 2010-2015 period with a series of anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic variables using the random forest algorithm (RF). We use a series of variables that represent the anthropogenic activity, the flammability of vegetation, climatic conditions, and topography. To represent the anthropogenic activity, we included the continuous distances to rivers, roads, and settlements. To characterize the vegetation flammability, we used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized multi-band drought index (NMDI) acquired from MODIS surface reflectance data. Additionally, we included the topographical variables elevation, slope, and solar radiation derived from the ASTER global digital elevation model (GDEM V2). To represent the climatic conditions, we employed the land surface temperature (LST) product from the MODIS sensor and the WorldClim precipitation data. We analyzed the explanatory variables through native RF variable importance analysis and jackknife test, and the results revealed that the dry fuel conditions and low precipitation combined with the proximity to non-paved roads were the major drivers of wildfires. Furthermore, we predicted the areas with highest wildfire susceptibility, which are located mainly in the central and eastern regions of the country, within coniferous and mixed forests. Results acquired were validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the point biserial correlation

  14. Wildfire smoke exposure and human health: Significant gaps in research for a growing public health issue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Carolyn; Tesfaigzi, Yohannes; Bassein, Jed A; Miller, Lisa A

    2017-10-01

    Understanding the effect of wildfire smoke exposure on human health represents a unique interdisciplinary challenge to the scientific community. Population health studies indicate that wildfire smoke is a risk to human health and increases the healthcare burden of smoke-impacted areas. However, wildfire smoke composition is complex and dynamic, making characterization and modeling difficult. Furthermore, current efforts to study the effect of wildfire smoke are limited by availability of air quality measures and inconsistent air quality reporting among researchers. To help address these issues, we conducted a substantive review of wildfire smoke effects on population health, wildfire smoke exposure in occupational health, and experimental wood smoke exposure. Our goal was to evaluate the current literature on wildfire smoke and highlight important gaps in research. In particular we emphasize long-term health effects of wildfire smoke, recovery following wildfire smoke exposure, and health consequences of exposure in children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Design of a probabilistic wildfire alert system for Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Ben; Dacre, Helen; Lopez Saldana, Gerardo; Charlton-Perez, Andrew

    2017-04-01

    During the past 50 years over 200,000 wildfires have burned nearly 2.3 million hectares in Chile, leading to significant economic consequences. To improve wildfire warning capabilities, statistical models have been developed by the University of Chile for 15 different geographic regions of the country to quantify wildfire risk based on a set of specific meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, accumulated precipitation, and time of year). Currently, the warning system uses data input from ground-based weather stations and alerts are issued one day ahead. This project improves upon the current system by using variables from ensemble weather prediction datasets (TIGGE archive from ECMWF) as input to the wildfire risk model. This allows development of a probabilistic alert system that takes into account uncertainties in the specific meteorological forecast variables used in the wildfire risk model. This also allows the wildfire risk index to be calculated up to seven days ahead. The integration of the statistical wildfire risk model with the ensemble weather prediction system provides additional information about uncertainty to improve resource allocation decisions. The new system is evaluated using MODIS satellite wildfire detection datasets from 2008-2015 for each of the 15 geographic wildfire risk regions. The prototype alert system is then compared to alerts made using forecast variables from the operational ensemble weather prediction system used by the Chilean Meteorological Service. Finally, a novel method to update the wildfire risk statistical model parameters in real time based on observed spatial and temporal wildfire patterns will be presented.

  16. Wildfire Smoke Emissions webinar

    Science.gov (United States)

    This webinar presented by Wayne Cascio will highlight updates to the Wildfire Smoke Guide, as well as the Smoke Sense app, which is a mobile application that gets air quality information to people impacted by wildfire smoke, and helps those affected learn

  17. Wildfire Smoke Health Watch

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-07-23

    Smoke from wildfires can be dangerous to your health. In this podcast, you will learn the health threats of wildfire smoke and steps you can take to minimize these effects.  Created: 7/23/2012 by Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (PHPR).   Date Released: 7/23/2012.

  18. Factors related to building loss due to wildfires in the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia M. Alexandre; Susan I. Stewart; Nicholas S. Keuler; Murray K. Clayton; Miranda H. Mockrin; Avi Bar-Massada; Alexandra D. Syphard; Volker C. Radeloff

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire is globally an important ecological disturbance affecting biochemical cycles and vegetation composition, but also puts people and their homes at risk. Suppressing wildfires has detrimental ecological effects and can promote larger and more intense wildfires when fuels accumulate, which increases the threat to buildings in the wildland- urban interface (WUI)....

  19. The adaptive capacity of New Zealand communities to wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamela J. Jakes; E.R. Langer

    2012-01-01

    When we think of natural disasters in New Zealand, we tend to think of earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. However, a series of events is placing New Zealand communities at greater risk of wildfire. In a case study of a rural New Zealand community that experienced wildfire, process elements such as networks and relationships among locals, development and application of...

  20. Determining Fire Dates and Locating Ignition Points With Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akli Benali

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Each wildfire has its own “history”, burns under specific conditions and leads to unique environmental impacts. Information on where and when it has started and its duration is important to improve understanding on the dynamics of individual wildfires. This information is typically included in fire databases that are known to have: (i multiple error sources; (ii limited spatial coverage and/or time span, and; (iii often unknown accuracy and uncertainty. Satellite data have a large potential to reduce such limitations. We used active fire data from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS to estimate fire start/end dates and ignition location(s for large wildfires that occurred in Alaska, Portugal, Greece, California and southeastern Australia. We assessed the agreement between satellite-derived estimates and data from fire databases, and determined the associated uncertainty. Fire dates and ignition location(s were estimated for circa 76% of the total burnt area extent for the five study regions. The ability to estimate fire dates and ignitions from satellite data increased with fire size. The agreement between reported and estimated fire dates was very good for start dates (Model efficiency index, MEF = 0.91 and reasonable for end dates (MEF = 0.73. The spatio-temporal agreement between reported and satellite-derived wildfire ignitions showed temporal lags and distances within 12 h and 2 km, respectively. Uncertainties associated with ignition estimates were generally larger than the disagreements with data reported in fire databases. Our results show how satellite data can contribute to improve information regarding dates and ignitions of large wildfires. This contribution can be particularly relevant in regions with scarce fire information, while in well-documented areas it can be used to complement, potentially detect, and correct inconsistencies in existing fire databases. Using data from other existing and/or upcoming

  1. Pre-wildfire management treatments interact with fire severity to have lasting effects on post-wildfire vegetation response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristen L. Shive; Carolyn H. Sieg; Peter Z. Fule

    2013-01-01

    Land managers are routinely applying fuel reduction treatments to mitigate the risk of severe, stand-replacing fire in ponderosa pine communities of the southwestern US. When these treatments are burned by wildfire they generally reduce fire severity, but less is known about how they influence post-wildfire vegetation recovery, as compared to pre-fire untreated areas....

  2. A Home Ignition Assessment Model Applied to Structures in the Wildland-Urban Interface

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biswas, Kaushik [ORNL; Werth, David [Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC; Gupta, Narendra [Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC

    2013-01-01

    The issue of exterior fire threat to buildings, from either wildfires in the wildland-urban interface or neighboring structure fires, is critically important. To address this, theWildfire Ignition Resistant Home Design (WIRHD) program was initiated. The WIRHD program developed a tool, theWildFIREWizard, that will allow homeowners to estimate the external fire threat to their homes based on specific features and characteristics of the homes and yards. The software then makes recommendations to reduce the threat. The inputs include the structural and material features of the home and information about any ignition sources or flammable objects in its immediate vicinity, known as the home ignition zone. The tool comprises an ignition assessment model that performs explicit calculations of the radiant and convective heating of the building envelope from the potential ignition sources. This article describes a series of material ignition and flammability tests that were performed to calibrate and/or validate the ignition assessment model. The tests involved exposing test walls with different external siding types to radiant heating and/or direct flame contact.The responses of the test walls were used to determine the conditions leading to melting, ignition, or any other mode of failure of the walls. Temperature data were used to verify the model predictions of temperature rises and ignition times of the test walls.

  3. Wildfire Danger Potential in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Myoung, B.; Kim, S. H.; Fujioka, F. M.; Kim, J.

    2015-12-01

    Wildfires are an important concern in California (CA) which is characterized by the semi-arid to arid climate and vegetation types. Highly variable winter precipitation and extended hot and dry warm season in the region challenge an effective strategic fire management. Climatologically, the fire season which is based on live fuel moisture (LFM) of generally below 80% in Los Angeles County spans 4 months from mid-July to mid-November, but it has lasted over 7 months in the past several years. This behavior is primarily due to the ongoing drought in CA during the last decade, which is responsible for frequent outbreaks of severe wildfires in the region. Despite their importance, scientific advances for the recent changes in wildfire risk and effective assessments of wildfire risk are lacking. In the present study, we show impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulations on an early start and then extended length of fire seasons. For example, the strong relationships of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with springtime temperature and precipitation in the SWUS that was recently revealed by our team members have led to an examination of the possible impact of NAO on wildfire danger in the spring. Our results show that the abnormally warm and dry spring conditions associated with positive NAO phases can cause an early start of a fire season and high fire risks throughout the summer and fall. For an effective fire danger assessment, we have tested the capability of satellite vegetation indices (VIs) in replicating in situ LFM of Southern CA chaparral ecosystems by 1) comparing seasonal/interannual characteristics of in-situ LFM with VIs and 2) developing an empirical model function of LFM. Unlike previous studies attempting a point-to-point comparison, we attempt to examine the LFM relationship with VIs averaged over different areal coverage with chamise-dominant grids (i.e., 0.5 km to 25 km radius circles). Lastly, we discuss implications of the results for fire danger

  4. Role of buoyant flame dynamics in wildfire spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, Mark A; Cohen, Jack D; Forthofer, Jason M; McAllister, Sara S; Gollner, Michael J; Gorham, Daniel J; Saito, Kozo; Akafuah, Nelson K; Adam, Brittany A; English, Justin D

    2015-08-11

    Large wildfires of increasing frequency and severity threaten local populations and natural resources and contribute carbon emissions into the earth-climate system. Although wildfires have been researched and modeled for decades, no verifiable physical theory of spread is available to form the basis for the precise predictions needed to manage fires more effectively and reduce their environmental, economic, ecological, and climate impacts. Here, we report new experiments conducted at multiple scales that appear to reveal how wildfire spread derives from the tight coupling between flame dynamics induced by buoyancy and fine-particle response to convection. Convective cooling of the fine-sized fuel particles in wildland vegetation is observed to efficiently offset heating by thermal radiation until convective heating by contact with flames and hot gasses occurs. The structure and intermittency of flames that ignite fuel particles were found to correlate with instabilities induced by the strong buoyancy of the flame zone itself. Discovery that ignition in wildfires is critically dependent on nonsteady flame convection governed by buoyant and inertial interaction advances both theory and the physical basis for practical modeling.

  5. Wildfire Disasters and Nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanes, Patricia Frohock

    2016-12-01

    Multiple factors contribute to wildfires in California and other regions: drought, winds, climate change, and spreading urbanization. Little has been done to study the multiple roles of nurses related to wildfire disasters. Major nursing organizations support disaster education for nurses. It is essential for nurses to recognize their roles in each phase of the disaster cycle: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Skills learned in the US federal all-hazards approach to disasters can then be adapted to more specific disasters, such as wildfires, and issues affecting health care. Nursing has an important role in each phase of the disaster cycle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. HM-60 pyrotechnic igniters ignition improvement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valk, G.C. de; Zee, F.W.M.; Gadiot, G.M.H.J.L.

    1990-01-01

    For the start and ignition equipment (a turbo pump starter and two igiters) of the HM60-Vulcain, the main engine of Ariane 5, Europe's future launcher, special propellants based on ampsaiurr nitrate have been developed. As the ignition of such propellants is more sensitive to the well known igition

  7. Non-accidental health impacts of wildfire smoke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youssouf, Hassani; Liousse, Catherine; Roblou, Laurent; Assamoi, Eric-Michel; Salonen, Raimo O; Maesano, Cara; Banerjee, Soutrik; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella

    2014-11-14

    Wildfires take a heavy toll on human health worldwide. Climate change may increase the risk of wildfire frequency. Therefore, in view of adapted preventive actions, there is an urgent need to further understand the health effects and public awareness of wildfires. We conducted a systematic review of non-accidental health impacts of wildfire and incorporated lessons learned from recent experiences. Based on the literature, various studies have established the relationship between one of the major components of wildfire, particulate matter (particles with diameter less than 10 µm (PM10) and less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5)) and cardiorespiratory symptoms in terms of Emergency Rooms visits and hospital admissions. Associations between wildfire emissions and various subclinical effects have also been established. However, few relationships between wildfire emissions and mortality have been observed. Certain segments of the population may be particularly vulnerable to smoke-related health risks. Among them, people with pre-existing cardiopulmonary conditions, the elderly, smokers and, for professional reasons, firefighters. Potential action mechanisms have been highlighted. Overall, more research is needed to better understand health impact of wildfire exposure.

  8. Non-Accidental Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassani Youssouf

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires take a heavy toll on human health worldwide. Climate change may increase the risk of wildfire frequency. Therefore, in view of adapted preventive actions, there is an urgent need to further understand the health effects and public awareness of wildfires. We conducted a systematic review of non-accidental health impacts of wildfire and incorporated lessons learned from recent experiences. Based on the literature, various studies have established the relationship between one of the major components of wildfire, particulate matter (particles with diameter less than 10 µm (PM10 and less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5 and cardiorespiratory symptoms in terms of Emergency Rooms visits and hospital admissions. Associations between wildfire emissions and various subclinical effects have also been established. However, few relationships between wildfire emissions and mortality have been observed. Certain segments of the population may be particularly vulnerable to smoke-related health risks. Among them, people with pre-existing cardiopulmonary conditions, the elderly, smokers and, for professional reasons, firefighters. Potential action mechanisms have been highlighted. Overall, more research is needed to better understand health impact of wildfire exposure.

  9. Disaster Distress Helpline: Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... disaster-related resources. Wildfires are usually triggered by lightning or accidents and often go unnoticed at first. ... for 2004, 2009, and 2010. DAWN is a public health surveillance system that monitors drug-related ED ...

  10. Wildfire Prevention Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Wildlife Coordinating Group, Boise, ID.

    This document provides information and guidance on wildfire prevention strategies. Chapters include: (1) "Introduction"; (2) "How to Use this Guide"; (3) "Fire Cause Classification"; (4) "Relative Effectiveness"; (5) "Degree of Difficulty"; (6) "Intervention Techniques"; (7)…

  11. Wildfires: Information for Parents

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Particulate Air (HEPA) filters or other room air filtration systems that do not generate ozone are recommended. ... child to excessive or unnecessary TV or other media coverage of the wildfire. Answer your child’s questions ...

  12. Dual coil ignition system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huberts, Garlan J.; Qu, Qiuping; Czekala, Michael Damian

    2017-03-28

    A dual coil ignition system is provided. The dual coil ignition system includes a first inductive ignition coil including a first primary winding and a first secondary winding, and a second inductive ignition coil including a second primary winding and a second secondary winding, the second secondary winding connected in series to the first secondary winding. The dual coil ignition system further includes a diode network including a first diode and a second diode connected between the first secondary winding and the second secondary winding.

  13. Early Detection of Lightning Caused Wildfires and Prediction of Wildfire Behavior through Energy Distribution, Atmospherics, Geophysics, the Sun's Azimuth, and Topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesige, C.; Nava, E.

    2016-12-01

    In the midst of a changing climate we have seen extremes in weather events: lightning, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes. All of these ride on an imbalance of magnetic and electrical distribution about the earth including what goes on from the atmospheric and geophysic levels. There is relevance to the important role the sun plays in developing and feeding of the extreme weather events along with the sun's role helping to create a separation of charges on earth furthering climactic extremes. Focusing attention in North America and on how the sun, atmospheric and geophysic winds come together producing lightning events, there are connections between energy distribution in the environment, lightning caused wildfires, and extreme wildfire behavior. Lightning caused wildfires and extreme fire behavior have become enhanced with the changing climate conditions. Even with strong developments in wildfire science, there remains a lack in full understanding of connections that create a lightning caused wildfire event and lack of monitoring advancements in predicting extreme fire behavior. Several connections have been made in our research allowing us to connect multiple facets of the environment in regards to electric and magnetic influences on wildfires. Among them include: irradiance, winds, pressure systems, humidity, and topology. The connections can be made to develop better detection systems of wildfires, establish with more accuracy areas of highest risk for wildfire and extreme wildfire behavior, and prediction of wildfire behavior. A platform found within the environment can also lead to further understanding and monitoring of other extreme weather events in the future.

  14. Exploring how alternative mapping approaches influence fireshed assessment and human community exposure to wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

    2015-01-01

    Attaining fire-adapted human communities has become a key focus of collaborative planning on landscapes across the western United States and elsewhere. The coupling of fire simulation with GIS has expanded the analytical base to support such planning efforts, particularly through the "fireside" concept that identifies areas where wildfires could ignite and...

  15. Examining Atmospheric and Ecological Drivers of Wildfires, Modeling Wildfire Occurrence in the Southwest United States, and Using Atmospheric Sounding Observations to Verify National Weather Service Spot Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauslar, Nicholas J.

    This dissertation is comprised of three different papers that all pertain to wildland fire applications. The first paper performs a verification analysis on mixing height, transport winds, and Haines Index from National Weather Service spot forecasts across the United States. The final two papers, which are closely related, examine atmospheric and ecological drivers of wildfire for the Southwest Area (SWA) (Arizona, New Mexico, west Texas, and Oklahoma panhandle) to better equip operational fire meteorologists and managers to make informed decisions on wildfire potential in this region. The verification analysis here utilizes NWS spot forecasts of mixing height, transport winds and Haines Index from 2009-2013 issued for a location within 50 km of an upper sounding location and valid for the day of the fire event. Mixing height was calculated from the 0000 UTC sounding via the Stull, Holzworth, and Richardson methods. Transport wind speeds were determined by averaging the wind speed through the boundary layer as determined by the three mixing height methods from the 0000 UTC sounding. Haines Index was calculated at low, mid, and high elevation based on the elevation of the sounding and spot forecast locations. Mixing height forecasts exhibited large mean absolute errors and biased towards over forecasting. Forecasts of transport wind speeds and Haines Index outperformed mixing height forecasts with smaller errors relative to their respective means. The rainfall and lightning associated with the North American Monsoon (NAM) can vary greatly intra- and inter-annually and has a large impact on wildfire activity across the SWA by igniting or suppressing wildfires. NAM onset thresholds and subsequent dates are determined for the SWA and each Predictive Service Area (PSA), which are sub-regions used by operational fire meteorologists to predict wildfire potential within the SWA, April through September from 1995-2013. Various wildfire activity thresholds using the number

  16. Can private land conservation reduce wildfire risk to homes? A case study in San Diego County, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butsic, Van; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bar-Massada, Avi

    2017-01-01

    The purchase of private land for conservation purposes is a common way to prevent the exploitation of sensitive ecological areas. However, private land conservation can also provide other benefits, one of these being natural hazard reduction. Here, we investigated the impacts of private land conservation on fire risk to homes in San Diego County, California. We coupled an econometric land use change model with a model that estimates the probability of house loss due to fire in order to compare fire risk at the county and municipality scale under alternative private land purchasing schemes and over a 20 year time horizon. We found that conservation purchases could reduce fire risk on this landscape, and the amount of risk reduction was related to the targeting approach used to choose which parcels were conserved. Conservation land purchases that targeted parcels designated as high fire hazard resulted in lower fire risk to homes than purchases that targeted low costs or high likelihood to subdivide. This result was driven by (1) preventing home placement in fire prone areas and (2) taking land off the market, and hence increasing development densities in other areas. These results raise the possibility that resource conservation and fire hazard reduction may benefit from combining efforts. With adequate planning, future conservation purchases could have synergistic effects beyond just protecting ecologically sensitive areas.

  17. Experimental investigations of the minimum ignition energy and the minimum ignition temperature of inert and combustible dust cloud mixtures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Addai, Emmanuel Kwasi, E-mail: emmanueladdai41@yahoo.com; Gabel, Dieter; Krause, Ulrich

    2016-04-15

    Highlights: • Ignition sensitivity of a highly flammable dust decreases upon addition of inert dust. • Minimum ignition temperature of a highly flammable dust increases when inert concentration increase. • Minimum ignition energy of a highly flammable dust increases when inert concentration increase. • The permissible range for the inert mixture to minimize the ignition risk lies between 60 to 80%. - Abstract: The risks associated with dust explosions still exist in industries that either process or handle combustible dust. This explosion risk could be prevented or mitigated by applying the principle of inherent safety (moderation). This is achieved by adding an inert material to a highly combustible material in order to decrease the ignition sensitivity of the combustible dust. The presented paper deals with the experimental investigation of the influence of adding an inert dust on the minimum ignition energy and the minimum ignition temperature of the combustible/inert dust mixtures. The experimental investigation was done in two laboratory scale equipment: the Hartmann apparatus and the Godbert-Greenwald furnace for the minimum ignition energy and the minimum ignition temperature test respectively. This was achieved by mixing various amounts of three inert materials (magnesium oxide, ammonium sulphate and sand) and six combustible dusts (brown coal, lycopodium, toner, niacin, corn starch and high density polyethylene). Generally, increasing the inert materials concentration increases the minimum ignition energy as well as the minimum ignition temperatures until a threshold is reached where no ignition was obtained. The permissible range for the inert mixture to minimize the ignition risk lies between 60 to 80%.

  18. Spreading like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-01

    The 2017 wildfire season has seen unusually high fire levels in many parts of the world, with extensive and severe fires occurring in Chile, the Mediterranean, Russia, the US, Canada and even Greenland. Is this a sign of things to come?

  19. The carbon balance of reducing wildfire risk and restoring process: an analysis of 10-year post-treatment carbon dynamics in a mixed-conifer forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan L. Wiechmann; Matthew D. Hurteau; Malcolm P. North; George W. Koch; Lucie Jerabkova

    2015-01-01

    Forests sequester carbon from the atmosphere, helping mitigate climate change. In fire-prone forests, burn events result in direct and indirect emissions of carbon. High fire-induced tree mortality can cause a transition from a carbon sink to source, but thinning and prescribed burning can reduce fire severity and carbon loss when wildfire occurs. However, treatment...

  20. Ignition tuning for the National Ignition Campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Landen O.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The overall goal of the indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion [1] tuning campaigns [2] is to maximize the probability of ignition by experimentally correcting for likely residual uncertainties in the implosion and hohlraum physics [3] used in our radiation-hydrodynamic computational models, and by checking for and resolving unexpected shot-to-shot variability in performance [4]. This has been started successfully using a variety of surrogate capsules that set key laser, hohlraum and capsule parameters to maximize ignition capsule implosion velocity, while minimizing fuel adiabat, core shape asymmetry and ablator-fuel mix.

  1. Does personal experience affect choice-based preferences for wildfire protection programs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armando González-Cabán; Thomas P. Holmes; John B. Loomis; José J. Sánchez

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate homeowner preferences and willingness to pay for wildfire protection programs using a choice experiment with three attributes: risk, loss, and cost. A phone-mail-phone survey was used to collect data from homeowners predominantly living in medium and high wildfire risk communities in Florida. We tested three hypotheses: (1) homeowner...

  2. A Mixed Logit Model of Homeowner Preferences for Wildfire Hazard Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

    2010-01-01

    People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...

  3. The effect of personal experience on choice-based preferences for wildfire protection programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tom Holmes; Armando Gonzalez-Caban; John Loomis; Jose Sanchez

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate homeowner preferences and willingness to pay for wildfire protection programs using a choice experiment with three attributes: risk, loss and cost. Preference heterogeneity among survey respondents was examined using three econometric models and risk preferences were evaluated by comparing willingness to pay for wildfire protection...

  4. Integration of Lightning- and Human-Caused Wildfire Occurrence Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vilar, Lara; Nieto Solana, Hector; Martín, M. Pilar

    2010-01-01

    Fire risk indices are useful tools for fire prevention actions by fire managers. A fire ignition is either the result of lightning or human activities. In European Mediterranean countries most forest fires are due to human activities. However, lightning is still an important fire ignition source ...

  5. Wildfire and landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santi, P.; Cannon, S.; DeGraff, J.

    2013-01-01

    Wildfire is a worldwide phenomenon that is expected to increase in extent and severity in the future, due to fuel accumulations, shifting land management practices, and climate change. It immediately affects the landscape by removing vegetation, depositing ash, influencing water-repellent soil formation, and physically weathering boulders and bedrock. These changes typically lead to increased erosion through sheetwash, rilling, dry ravel, and increased mass movement in the form of floods, debris flow, rockfall, and landslides. These process changes bring about landform changes as hillslopes are lowered and stream channels aggrade or incise at increased rates. Furthermore, development of alluvial fans, debris fans, and talus cones are enhanced. The window of disturbance to the landscape caused by wildfire is typically on the order of three to four years, with some effects persisting up to 30 years.

  6. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

    2017-10-01

    We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. 16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) Extremely flammable contact adhesives and other similar liquid or semi-liquid products in containers over... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk... TO OTHER ACTS UNDER THE CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY ACT § 1145.3 Extremely flammable contact adhesives...

  8. Just blowing smoke? Residents’ social construction of communication about wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Paveglio; Matthew S. Carroll; James D. Absher; Todd. Norton

    2009-01-01

    This study uses social constructionism as a basis for understanding the effectiveness of communication about wildfire risk between agency officials and wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents. Risk communication literature demonstrates a welldocumented difference in the way land managers and stakeholders conceptualize risk. This is especially true of fire because...

  9. Acoustic Igniter Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — An acoustic igniter eliminates the need to use electrical energy to drive spark systems to initiate combustion in liquid-propellant rockets. It does not involve the...

  10. Diesel engine ignition modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elsden, M.; Gutheil, E.; Warnatz, J.; Nehse, M.

    1997-12-31

    The ability to correctly predict the self-ignition behaviour of a compression ignition engine is extremely important when trying to model the complex fluid dynamics and chemical processes found within these engines. Correct prediction of the ignition timing and location is clearly a necessary starting point for the calculation of the fuel combustion process. However, the complex mixing processes and chemical reactions which govern ignition are not easily claculated simultaneously during the engine cycle. This paper presents, a method of coupling the detailed pre-compustion chemistry to the in-cylinder fluid dynamics occurring in the complex geometry of a modern diesel engine. The chemistry is pre-calculated for laminar conditions and linked to the CFD calculation through the use of lookup tables. Development of the radical pool, which leads to auto-ignition, is calculated for a range of pressures, temperatures and mixture fractions, using a detailed chemical mechanism (200 species, 1200 reactions). A lookup table is formed relating the concentration of a representative radical to its reaction rate. Due to the non-monotonic behaviour of this radical it is necessary to solve for a monotonic species and relate this concentration to that of the ignition tracking species. The transport equation for the species is implemented in the engine simulation code KIVA-3. Closure of the mean chemical reaction term is accemplished by integration of the laminar reaction rates, obtained from the look-up table, over PDFs for temperature, mixture fraction and radical concentration. The results are encouraging. The ignition timing is predicted well for a range of injection timing. While no direct experimental data is available for the ignition location in this engine, the predicted location agrees well with other studies. (orig.)

  11. Fusion ignition via a magnetically-assisted fast ignition approach

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, W -M; Sheng, Z -M; Li, Y T; Zhang, J

    2016-01-01

    Significant progress has been made towards laser-driven fusion ignition via different schemes, including direct and indirect central ignition, fast ignition, shock ignition, and impact ignition schemes. However, to reach ignition conditions, there are still various technical and physical challenges to be solved for all these schemes. Here, our multi-dimensional integrated simulation shows that the fast-ignition conditions could be achieved when two 2.8 petawatt heating laser pulses counter-propagate along a 3.5 kilotesla external magnetic field. Within a period of 5 picoseconds, the laser pulses heat a nuclear fuel to reach the ignition conditions. Furthermore, we present the parameter windows of lasers and magnetic fields required for ignition for experimental test.

  12. Wildfires in Chile: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Úbeda, Xavier; Sarricolea, Pablo

    2016-11-01

    This paper reviews the literature examining the wildfire phenomenon in Chile. Since ancient times, Chile's wildfires have shaped the country's landscape, but today, as in many other parts of the world, the fire regime - pattern, frequency and intensity - has grown at an alarming rate. In 2014, > 8000 fires were responsible for burning c. 130,000 ha, making it the worst year in Chile's recent history. The reasons for this increase appear to be the increment in the area planted with flammable species; the rejection of these landscape modifications on the part of local communities that target these plantations in arson attacks; and, the adoption of intensive forest management practices resulting in the accumulation of a high fuel load. These trends have left many native species in a precarious situation and forest plantation companies under considerable financial pressure. An additional problem is posed by fires at the wildland urban interface (WUI), threatening those inhabitants that live in Chile's most heavily populated cities. The prevalence of natural fires in Chile; the relationship between certain plant species and fire in terms of seed germination strategies and plant adaptation; the relationship between fire and invasive species; and, the need for fire prevention systems and territorial plans that include fire risk assessments are some of the key aspects discussed in this article. Several of the questions raised will require further research, including just how fire-dependent the ecosystems in Chile are, how the forest at the WUI can be better managed to prevent human and material damage, and how best to address the social controversy that pits the Mapuche population against the timber companies.

  13. Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E Calkin

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Over the last two decades wildfire activity, damage, and management cost within the US have increased substantially. These increases have been associated with a number of factors including climate change and fuel accumulation due to a century of active fire suppression. The increased fire activity has occurred during a time of significant ex-urban development of the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI along with increased demand on water resources originating on forested landscapes. These increased demands have put substantial pressure on federal agencies charged with wildfire management to continue and expand the century old policy of aggressive wildfire suppression. However, aggressive wildfire suppression is one of the major factors that drive the increased extent, intensity, and damage associated with the small number of large wildfires that are unable to be suppressed. In this paper we discuss the positive feedback loops that lead to demands for increasing suppression response while simultaneously increasing wildfire risk in the future. Despite a wealth of scientific research that demonstrates the limitations of the current management paradigm pressure to maintain the existing system are well entrenched and driven by the existing social systems that have evolved under our current management practice. Interestingly, US federal wildland fire policy provides considerable discretion for managers to pursue a range of management objectives; however, societal expectations and existing management incentive structures result in policy implementation that is straining the resilience of fire adapted ecosystems and the communities that reside in and adjacent to them.

  14. Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

    2017-07-01

    Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

  15. Seeking common ground: protecting homes from wildfires while making forests more resilient to fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noreen Parks; Alan Ager

    2011-01-01

    Federal policies direct public-land managers to reduce wildfire risks for urban areas close to wildlands, while broader agency goals call for landscape restoration to create fire-resilient forests. This study used wildfires simulation modeling to examine the tradeoffs between focusing fuel reduction efforts on a wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Oregon’s Blue Mountains...

  16. Examining heterogeneity and wildfire management expenditures using spatially and temporally descriptive data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael S. Hand; Matthew P. Thompson; Dave Calkin

    2016-01-01

    Increasing costs of wildfire management have highlighted the need to better understand suppression expenditures and potential tradeoffs of land management activities that may affect fire risks. Spatially and temporally descriptive data is used to develop a model of wildfire suppression expenditures, providing new insights into the role of spatial and temporal...

  17. Categorizing the social context of the wildland urban interface: Adaptive capacity for wildfire and community "archetypes"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavis B. Paveglio; Cassandra Moseley; Matthew S. Carroll; Daniel R. Williams; Emily Jane Davis; A. Paige Fischer

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the local context that shapes collective response to wildfire risk continues to be a challenge for scientists and policymakers. This study utilizes and expands on a conceptual approach for understanding adaptive capacity to wildfire in a comparison of 18 past case studies. The intent is to determine whether comparison of local social context and community...

  18. Analyzing the transmission of wildfire exposure on a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Mark A. Finney; Ken Vance-Borland; Nicole M. Vaillant

    2014-01-01

    We develop the idea of risk transmission from large wildfires and apply network analyses to understand its importance on a 0.75 million ha US national forest. Wildfires in the western US frequently burn over long distances (e.g., 20–50 km) through highly fragmented landscapes with respect to ownership, fuels, management intensity, population density, and ecological...

  19. Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of suppression expenditure models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael S. Hand; Krista M. Gebert; Jingjing Liang; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson; Mo Zhou

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, increased wildland fire activity over the last 15 years has resulted in increased pressure to balance the cost, benefits, and risks of wildfire management. Amid increased public scrutiny and a highly variable wildland fire environment, a substantial body of research has developed to study factors affecting the cost-effectiveness of wildfire...

  20. Simulation and optimization for an experimental environment to wildfire resource management and planning: firefight project modelling and architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Figueras Jové, Jaume; Guasch Petit, Antonio; Fonseca Casas, Pau; Casanovas Garcia, Josep

    2013-01-01

    Firefighting resource management is crucial to contain and extinguish wildfires. Resource optimization in wildfire containment can help to reduce the dangers and risks to both human (firemen and area inhabitants) and natural environment. The use of simulation to predict wildfire evolution combined with optimization techniques can lead to an optimal resource deployment and management to minimize natural and human risks. This article proposes a simulation and optimization architecture; a well-d...

  1. Mapping of forest species and tree density using new Earth observation sensors for wildfire applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keramitsoglou, Iphigenia; Kontoes, Charalambos; Koutroumbas, Konstantinos; Sykioti, Olga; Sifakis, Nicolaos

    2005-10-01

    The success of any decision support system for managing wildfires lies on its ability to simulate fire evolution. Therefore, accurate information on the natural fuel material in any area of interest is necessary. The present study aims to provide methodological tools to explore in depth the potential of new Earth Observation data for horizontal mapping of vegetated areas. Two approaches are mainly described. The first one deals with the classification of ASTER visible, near- and short-wave infrared images in a detailed nomenclature including both different species and tree densities. This is important for wildfire studies since the same vegetation classes may represent completely different risk ignition levels depending on their morphological characteristics (i.e., trees height and density). The improvement of class separability using hyperspectral images acquired by Hyperion is also investigated. The second approach refers to a pattern recognition software tool for single tree counting using a very high spatial resolution image acquired by IKONOS-2 satellite. According to this approach, the regions dense in plants are identified by applying a suitable thresholding on the image. The resulted regions are further processed in order to estimate the number and location of single trees based on a pre-specified crown size per stratified zone. The outcome of the latter approach may provide direct evidence of tree density relating to ground biomass. Finally, the two approaches are used in a complementary manner to explore the possibilities offered by new sensor technology to override past limitations in species and fuel classification due to inadequate spectral/spatial resolution. The pilot application area is Mount. Pendeli and the east side of Mount. Parnitha, in the prefecture of Attiki, Greece.

  2. Living with wildfire in Larimer County, Colorado, 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia A. Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Nicholas Flores

    2011-01-01

    The devastating impact of wildfire on residents living in fire prone areas has become an all too common media story in recent years. While significant efforts have been made to inform residents in fire prone areas of the risk, it is not clear to what extent property owners are taking action to reduce risk. Likewise, we know little about what factors are related to...

  3. Living with wildfire in Boulder County, Colorado, 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia A. Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Nicholas Flores

    2011-01-01

    The devastating impact of wildfire on residents living in fire prone areas has become an all too common media story in recent years. While significant efforts have been made to inform residents in fire prone areas of the risk, it is not clear to what extent property owners are taking action to reduce risk. Likewise, we know little about what factors are related to...

  4. Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coco Liu, Jia; Mickley, Loretta J.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yue, Xu; Peng, Roger D.; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L.

    2016-12-01

    Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) specifically from wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046-2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county (n = 561) from wildfire PM2.5 under climate change in the Western US. Results. The increase in intense wildfire smoke days from climate change would result in an estimated 178 (95% confidence interval: 6.2, 361) additional respiratory hospital admissions in the Western US, accounting for estimated future increase in the elderly population. Climate change is estimated to impose an additional 4990 high-pollution smoke days. Central Colorado, Washington and southern California are estimated to experience the highest percentage increase in respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change. Conclusion. Although the increase in number of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke seems modest, these results provide important scientific evidence of an often-ignored aspect of wildfire impact, and information on their anticipated spatial distribution. Wildfires can cause serious social burdens such as property damage and suppression cost, but can also raise health problems. The results provide information that can be incorporated into development of environmental and health policies in response to climate change. Climate change adaptation policies could incorporate scientific evidence on health risks from natural disasters such as wildfires.

  5. Capturing spatiotemporal variation in wildfires for improving postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessments: Chapter 20

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Jessica R.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Tillery, Anne C.; Scott, Joe H.

    2017-01-01

    Wildfires can increase the frequency and magnitude of catastrophic debris flows. Integrated, proactive natural hazard assessment would therefore characterize landscapes based on the potential for the occurrence and interactions of wildfires and postwildfire debris flows. This chapter presents a new modeling effort that can quantify the variability surrounding a key input to postwildfire debris-flow modeling, the amount of watershed burned at moderate to high severity, in a prewildfire context. The use of stochastic wildfire simulation captures variability surrounding the timing and location of ignitions, fire weather patterns, and ultimately the spatial patterns of watershed area burned. Model results provide for enhanced estimates of postwildfire debris-flow hazard in a prewildfire context, and multiple hazard metrics are generated to characterize and contrast hazards across watersheds. Results can guide mitigation efforts by allowing planners to identify which factors may be contributing the most to the hazard rankings of watersheds.

  6. Synoptic patterns associated with wildfires caused by lightning in Castile and Leon, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. García-Ortega

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The Iberian Peninsula presents the highest number of wildfires in Europe. In the NW of Spain in particular, wildfires are the natural risk with the greatest economic impact in this region. Wildfires caused by lightning are closely related to the triggering of convective phenomena. The prediction of thunderstorms is a very complex task because these weather events have a local character and are highly dependent on mesoscale atmospheric conditions. The development of convective storms is directly linked to the existence of a synoptic environment favoring convection. The aim of this study is to classify the atmospheric patterns that provide favorable environments for the occurrence of wildfires caused by lightning in the region of Castile and Leon, Spain. The database used for the study contains 376 wildfire days from the period 1987–2006. NCEP data reanalysis has been used. The atmospheric fields used to characterise each day were: geopotential heights and temperatures at 500 hPa and 850 hPa, relative humidity and the horizontal wind at 850 hPa. A Principal Component Analysis in T-mode followed by a Cluster Analysis resulted in a classification of wildfire days into five clusters. The characteristics of these clusters were analysed and described, focusing particularly on the study of those wildfire days in which more than one wildfire was detected. In these cases the main feature observed was the intensification of the disturbance typical of the cluster to which the wildfire belongs.

  7. Flammability properties of British heathland and moorland vegetation: models for predicting fire ignition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santana, Victor M; Marrs, Rob H

    2014-06-15

    Temperate ecosystems, for example British heathlands and moorlands, are predicted to experience an increase in severe summer drought and wildfire frequency over the next few decades. The development of fire ignition probability models is fundamental for developing fire-danger rating systems and predicting wildfire outbreaks. This work assessed the flammability properties of the fuel complex of British moorlands as a function of their moisture content under laboratory conditions. Specifically, we aimed to develop: (1) models of the probability of fire ignition in peat/litter fuel-beds (litter of four different plant species, Sphagnum moss and peat); (2) flammability properties in terms of ignitability, sustainability, consumability and combustibility of these peat/litter fuel-beds; (3) the probability of ignition in a canopy-layer of Calluna vulgaris (the most dominant heath/moor species in Britain) as a function of its dead-fuel proportion and moisture content; (4) the efficacy of standardized smouldering and flaming ignition sources in developing sustained ignitions. For this, a series of laboratory experiments simulating the fuel structure of moor vegetation were performed. The flammability properties in peat/litter fuel-beds were influenced strongly by the fuel moisture content. There were small differences in moisture thresholds for experiencing initial flaming ignitions (35-59%), however, the threshold for sustained ignitions (i.e. spreading a fixed distance from the ignition point) varied across a much wider range (19-55%). Litter/peat fuel-beds were classified into three groups: fuel-beds with high ignitability and combustibility, fuel-beds with high levels of sustainability, and fuel-beds with low levels in all flammability descriptors. The probability of ignition in the upper Calluna-vegetation layer was influenced by both the proportion of dead fuels and their moisture content, ranging from 19% to 35% of moisture as dead fuel proportion increased

  8. Surging wildfire activity in a grassland biome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Victoria M.; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Twidwell, Dirac

    2017-06-01

    Rapid changes in wildfire patterns are documented globally, increasing pressure to identify regions that may experience increases in wildfire in future decades. Temperate grassland and savanna biomes were some of the most frequently burned regions on Earth; however, large wildfires have been largely absent from the Great Plains of North America over the last century. In this paper, we conduct an in-depth analysis of changes in large wildfire (>400 ha) regime characteristics over a 30 year period across the Great Plains. For the entire biome, (i) the average number of large wildfires increased from 33.4 ± 5.6 per year from 1985 to 1994 to 116.8 ± 28.8 wildfires per year from 2005 to 2014, (ii) total area burned by large wildfires increased 400%, (iii) over half the ecoregions had greater than a 70% probability of a large wildfire occurring in the last decade, and (iv) seasonality of large wildfires remained relatively similar.

  9. Wildfires Tracked by Minnesota DNR

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — This theme shows the locations of wildfires for which the DNR was the primary responding agency. These include fires not only on state lands, but also rural private...

  10. Pattern and process of prescribed fires influence effectiveness at reducing wildfire severity in dry coniferous forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkle, Robert S.; Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin L.

    2012-01-01

    We examined the effects of three early season (spring) prescribed fires on burn severity patterns of summer wildfires that occurred 1–3 years post-treatment in a mixed conifer forest in central Idaho. Wildfire and prescribed fire burn severities were estimated as the difference in normalized burn ratio (dNBR) using Landsat imagery. We used GIS derived vegetation, topography, and treatment variables to generate models predicting the wildfire burn severity of 1286–5500 30-m pixels within and around treated areas. We found that wildfire severity was significantly lower in treated areas than in untreated areas and significantly lower than the potential wildfire severity of the treated areas had treatments not been implemented. At the pixel level, wildfire severity was best predicted by an interaction between prescribed fire severity, topographic moisture, heat load, and pre-fire vegetation volume. Prescribed fire severity and vegetation volume were the most influential predictors. Prescribed fire severity, and its influence on wildfire severity, was highest in relatively warm and dry locations, which were able to burn under spring conditions. In contrast, wildfire severity peaked in cooler, more mesic locations that dried later in the summer and supported greater vegetation volume. We found considerable evidence that prescribed fires have landscape-level influences within treatment boundaries; most notable was an interaction between distance from the prescribed fire perimeter and distance from treated patch edges, which explained up to 66% of the variation in wildfire severity. Early season prescribed fires may not directly target the locations most at risk of high severity wildfire, but proximity of these areas to treated patches and the discontinuity of fuels following treatment may influence wildfire severity and explain how even low severity treatments can be effective management tools in fire-prone landscapes.

  11. Estimating carbon emissions from African wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lehsten

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available We developed a technique for studying seasonal and interannual variation in pyrogenic carbon emissions from Africa using a modelling approach that scales burned area estimates from L3JRC, a map recently generated from remote sensing of burn scars instead of active fires. Carbon fluxes were calculated by the novel fire model SPITFIRE embedded within the dynamic vegetation model framework LPJ-GUESS, using daily climate input.

    For the time period from 2001 to 2005 an average area of 195.5±24×104 km2 was burned annually, releasing an average of 723±70 Tg C to the atmosphere; these estimates for the biomass burned are within the range of previously published estimates. Despite the fact that the majority of wildfires are ignited by humans, strong relationships between climatic conditions (particularly precipitation, net primary productivity and overall biomass burnt emerged. Our investigation of the relationships between burnt area and carbon emissions and their potential drivers available litter and precipitation revealed uni-modal responses to annual precipitation, with a maximum around 1000 mm for burned area and emissions, or 1200 mm for litter availability. Similar response patterns identified in savannahs worldwide point to precipitation as a chief determinant for short-term variation in fire regime. A considerable variability that cannot be explained by fire-precipitation relationships alone indicates the existence of additional factors that must be taken into account.

  12. Wildfires in Algeria: problems and challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Meddour-Sahar O

    2015-01-01

    In the scenario of the Mediterranean area, where about 54 000 fires and 0.4 million hectares of forest are burned and annually registered (2006-2010), the rank for Algeria is non-negligible with 4.11 million hectares of forest. The annual number of fires and the size of area burned depict a critical situation, which became rather dramatic in 2012. Climate change projections and the estimated changes to wildfire risk for the future decades (2030-2060) indicate that the entire Maghreb region, i...

  13. Predicted fates of ground-nesting bees in soil heated by wildfire: Thermal tolerances of life stages and a survey of nesting depths

    Science.gov (United States)

    James H. Cane; John L. Neff

    2011-01-01

    Periodic wildfire defines plant community composition and dynamics in many of the world's semi-arid biomes, whose climates and floras also favor wild bee diversity. Invasive flammable grasses, deforestation, historical fire suppression and human ignition are increasing fire frequency and intensifying its severity, as well as introducing fire to previously...

  14. Circumpolar spatio-temporal patterns and contributing climatic factors of wildfire activity in the Arctic tundra from 2001–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masrur, Arif; Petrov, Andrey N.; DeGroote, John

    2018-01-01

    Recent years have seen an increased frequency of wildfire events in different parts of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Contemporary studies have largely attributed these wildfire events to the Arctic’s rapidly changing climate and increased atmospheric disturbances (i.e. thunderstorms). However, existing research has primarily examined the wildfire–climate dynamics of individual large wildfire events. No studies have investigated wildfire activity, including climatic drivers, for the entire tundra biome across multiple years, i.e. at the planetary scale. To address this limitation, this paper provides a planetary/circumpolar scale analyses of space-time patterns of tundra wildfire occurrence and climatic association in the Arctic over a 15 year period (2001–2015). In doing so, we have leveraged and analyzed NASA Terra’s MODIS active fire and MERRA climate reanalysis products at multiple temporal scales (decadal, seasonal and monthly). Our exploratory spatial data analysis found that tundra wildfire occurrence was spatially clustered and fire intensity was spatially autocorrelated across the Arctic regions. Most of the wildfire events occurred in the peak summer months (June–August). Our multi-temporal (decadal, seasonal and monthly) scale analyses provide further support to the link between climate variability and wildfire activity. Specifically, we found that warm and dry conditions in the late spring to mid-summer influenced tundra wildfire occurrence, spatio-temporal distribution, and fire intensity. Additionally, reduced average surface precipitation and soil moisture levels in the winter–spring period were associated with increased fire intensity in the following summer. These findings enrich contemporary knowledge on tundra wildfire’s spatial and seasonal patterns, and shed new light on tundra wildfire–climate relationships in the circumpolar context. Furthermore, this first pan-Arctic analysis provides a strong incentive and direction for future

  15. A cellular automaton model of wildfire propagation and extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith C. Clarke; James A. Brass; Phillip J. Riggan

    1994-01-01

    We propose a new model to predict the spatial and temporal behavior of wildfires. Fire spread and intensity were simulated using a cellular automaton model. Monte Carlo techniques were used to provide fire risk probabilities for areas where fuel loadings and topography are known. The model assumes predetermined or measurable environmental variables such as wind...

  16. Uncertainties in Predicting Debris Flow Hazards Following Wildfire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hyde, K.D.; Riley, Karin; Stoof, C.R.

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire increases the probability of debris flows posing hazardous conditions where values-at-risk exist downstream of burned areas. Conditions and processes leading to postfire debris flows usually follow a general sequence defined here as the postfire debris flow hazard cascade: biophysical

  17. Best management practices for creating a community wildfire protection plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamela J. Jakes; Christine Esposito; Sam Burns; Antony S. Cheng; Kristen C. Nelson; Victoria E. Sturtevant; Daniel R. Williams

    2012-01-01

    A community wildfire protection plan (CWPP) is a means of bringing local solutions to wildland fire management. In developing and implementing CWPPs, communities assume a leadership role in reducing wildfi re risk on federal and nonfederal land. In this publication, we identify best management practices for CWPP development and implementation based on the experiences...

  18. The Central Pine Barrens of Long Island, New York - Steps to improve community preparedness for wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel Hudson; Kristen Nelson; Erika Lang

    2004-01-01

    This handout provides cooperators and high fire risk communities in the area in and around the central pine barrens of Long Island, New York examples of steps to take to increase wildfire preparedness.

  19. Shock Tube Ignition Delay Data Affected by Localized Ignition Phenomena

    KAUST Repository

    Javed, Tamour

    2016-12-29

    Shock tubes have conventionally been used for measuring high-temperature ignition delay times ~ O(1 ms). In the last decade or so, the operating regime of shock tubes has been extended to lower temperatures by accessing longer observation times. Such measurements may potentially be affected by some non-ideal phenomena. The purpose of this work is to measure long ignition delay times for fuels exhibiting negative temperature coefficient (NTC) and to assess the impact of shock tube non-idealities on ignition delay data. Ignition delay times of n-heptane and n-hexane were measured over the temperature range of 650 – 1250 K and pressures near 1.5 atm. Driver gas tailoring and long length of shock tube driver section were utilized to measure ignition delay times as long as 32 ms. Measured ignition delay times agree with chemical kinetic models at high (> 1100 K) and low (< 700 K) temperatures. In the intermediate temperature range (700 – 1100 K), however, significant discrepancies are observed between the measurements and homogeneous ignition delay simulations. It is postulated, based on experimental observations, that localized ignition kernels could affect the ignition delay times at the intermediate temperatures, which lead to compression (and heating) of the bulk gas and result in expediting the overall ignition event. The postulate is validated through simple representative computational fluid dynamic simulations of post-shock gas mixtures which exhibit ignition advancement via a hot spot. The results of the current work show that ignition delay times measured by shock tubes may be affected by non-ideal phenomena for certain conditions of temperature, pressure and fuel reactivity. Care must, therefore, be exercised in using such data for chemical kinetic model development and validation.

  20. Ignition target design for the National Ignition Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haan, S.W.; Pollaine, S.M.; Lindl, J.D. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM (United States)] [and others

    1996-06-01

    The goal of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) is to produce significant thermonuclear burn from a target driven with a laser or ion beam. To achieve that goal, the national ICF Program has proposed a laser capable of producing ignition and intermediate gain. The facility is called the National Ignition Facility (NIF). This article describes ignition targets designed for the NIF and their modeling. Although the baseline NIF target design, described herein, is indirect drive, the facility will also be capable of doing direct-drive ignition targets - currently being developed at the University of Rochester.

  1. A systematic review of the physical health impacts from non-occupational exposure to wildfire smoke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jia C; Pereira, Gavin; Uhl, Sarah A; Bravo, Mercedes A; Bell, Michelle L

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is likely to increase the threat of wildfires, and little is known about how wildfires affect health in exposed communities. A better understanding of the impacts of the resulting air pollution has important public health implications for the present day and the future. We performed a systematic search to identify peer-reviewed scientific studies published since 1986 regarding impacts of wildfire smoke on health in exposed communities. We reviewed and synthesized the state of science of this issue including methods to estimate exposure, and identified limitations in current research. We identified 61 epidemiological studies linking wildfire and human health in communities. The U.S. and Australia were the most frequently studied countries (18 studies on the U.S., 15 on Australia). Geographic scales ranged from a single small city (population about 55,000) to the entire globe. Most studies focused on areas close to fire events. Exposure was most commonly assessed with stationary air pollutant monitors (35 of 61 studies). Other methods included using satellite remote sensing and measurements from air samples collected during fires. Most studies compared risk of health outcomes between 1) periods with no fire events and periods during or after fire events, or 2) regions affected by wildfire smoke and unaffected regions. Daily pollution levels during or after wildfire in most studies exceeded U.S. EPA regulations. Levels of PM10, the most frequently studied pollutant, were 1.2 to 10 times higher due to wildfire smoke compared to non-fire periods and/or locations. Respiratory disease was the most frequently studied health condition, and had the most consistent results. Over 90% of these 45 studies reported that wildfire smoke was significantly associated with risk of respiratory morbidity. Exposure measurement is a key challenge in current literature on wildfire and human health. A limitation is the difficulty of estimating pollution specific to wildfires

  2. A systematic review of the physical health impacts from non-occupational exposure to wildfire smoke

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jia C.; Pereira, Gavin; Uhl, Sarah A.; Bravo, Mercedes A.; Bell, Michelle L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Climate change is likely to increase threat of wildfires, and little is known about how wildfires affect health in exposed communities. A better understanding of the impacts of the resulting air pollution has important public health implications for the present day and the future. Method We performed a systematic search to identify peer-reviewed scientific studies published since 1986 regarding impacts of wildfire smoke on health in exposed communities. We reviewed and synthesized the state of science of this issue including methods to estimate exposure, and identified limitations in current research. Results We identified 61 epidemiological studies linking wildfire and human health in communities. The U.S. and Australia were the most frequently studied countries (18 studies on the U.S., 15 on Australia). Geographic scales ranged from a single small city (population about 55,000) to the entire globe. Most studies focused on areas close to fire events. Exposure was most commonly assessed with stationary air pollutant monitors (35 of 61 studies). Other methods included using satellite remote sensing and measurements from air samples collected during fires. Most studies compared risk of health outcomes between 1) periods with no fire events and periods during or after fire events, or 2) regions affected by wildfire smoke and unaffected regions. Daily pollution levels during or after wildfire in most studies exceeded U.S. EPA regulations. Levels of PM10, the most frequently studied pollutant, were 1.2 to 10 times higher due to wildfire smoke compared to non-fire periods and/or locations. Respiratory disease was the most frequently studied health condition, and had the most consistent results. Over 90% of these 45 studies reported that wildfire smoke was significantly associated with risk of respiratory morbidity. Conclusion Exposure measurement is a key challenge in current literature on wildfire and human health. A limitation is the difficulty of estimating

  3. Economic optimisation of wildfire intervention activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    David T. Butry; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Karen L. Abt; Ronda Sutphen

    2010-01-01

    We describe how two important tools of wildfire management, wildfire prevention education and prescribed fire for fuels management, can be coordinated to minimise the combination of management costs and expected societal losses resulting from wildland fire. We present a long-run model that accounts for the dynamics of wildfire, the effects of fuels management on...

  4. Net benefits of wildfire prevention education efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry; Karen L. Abt; Ronda. Sutphen

    2010-01-01

    Wildfire prevention education efforts involve a variety of methods, including airing public service announcements, distributing brochures, and making presentations, which are intended to reduce the occurrence of certain kinds of wildfires. A Poisson model of preventable Florida wildfires from 2002 to 2007 by fire management region was developed. Controlling for...

  5. Central ignition scenarios for TFTR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zweben, S.J.; Redi, M.H.; Bateman, G.

    1986-03-01

    The possibility of obtaining ignition in TFTR by means of very centrally peaked density profiles is examined. It is shown that local central alpha heating can be made to exceed local central energy losses (''central ignition'') under global conditions for which Q greater than or equal to 1. Time dependent 1-D transport simulations show that the normal global ignition requirements are substantially relaxed for plasmas with peaked density profiles. 18 refs., 18 figs.

  6. Transboundary Collaborations to Enhance Wildfire Suppression in Protected Areas of the Black Sea Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. N. Zaimes

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available For the most effective and efficient management of certain natural resources (e.g. protected areas and disasters (e.g. wildfires transboundary approaches are needed. In addition in the management of protected areas, the role of wildfire should be incorporated, something that was ignored in the past and led to catastrophic wildfires. The Black Sea is a region that wildfires in the protected areas are expected to increase. This has to do with the abandonment of rural areas and the higher temperatures, especially during summer, due to climate change. Interesting is also the fact that some countries of the region have extensive experience while other do not have neither the experience nor the necessary infrastructures to face large wildfires. A transboundary collaboration would be very beneficial to the countries with limited experiences and capacities to suppress wildfires. The objective of this study is to be proactive by developing innovative tools to help suppress wildfires and enhancing the knowledge on wildfires and protected areas. The innovative tools included 4 different research activities and products. Firstly, an online Digital Geodatabase for the six pilot areas was developed. Next forest fire fuels and maps were developed while a forest fire behavior model was run to create the overall fire risk maps for the pilot areas. To estimate water resources and watershed streamflows the hydrologic model SWAT was validated and calibrated for the pilot areas. The final activities included a multi-criteria decision analysis to select the optimal location of the water reservoirs and the use of spatial analyst to provide the optimal routes to reach reservoirs by the fire vehicles. To enhance the responsible agency personnel along with stakeholders knowledge of the region, a Neighborhood Network with regular quarterly meetings was established. Participants for all six project countries were present in the meetings. Overall, new tool that will enhance

  7. Soil erosion influenced by wildfire and pre-fire plantation method in NW Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández Filgueira, Cristina; Vega Hidalgo, José Antonio; Fonturbel Lliteras, Teresa

    2017-04-01

    Erosion is a major concern in areas affected by high-severity wildfires. Soil characteristics associated with past forestry management can play a significant role in post-wildfire soil loss through increments in soil erodibility or as a result of sediment exhaustion. In areas such as NW Spain where there is a long history of intensive land use, this factor may be critical for explaining soil loss after wildfire. The objective of this study was to determine whether plantation method can significantly influence soil loss in the first year after wildfire in a P. sylvestris plantation affected wildfire in NW Spain. For these purpose, we measured hillslope-scale sediment production rates and site characteristics during the first year after wildfire in 30 plots. Treatments consisted in pre-fire ploughing+ wildfire, plantation holes+ wildfire and no preparation method+wildfire. Soil burn severity was high as average. During the first year following fire, soil losses varied from 0.9 t/ha in the ploughed areas to 4.6 t/ha in the plantation wholes. The treatment with no terrain preparation yielded 3.0 t/ha during the same period of time. These results suggest that pre-fire ploughed areas are not a priority for soil erosion risk mitigation after wildfire. The study was funded by the National Institute of Agricultural Research of Spain (INIA) through project RTA2014-00011-C06-02, cofunded by FEDER and the Plan de Mejora e Innovación Forestal de Galicia (2010-2020) and INDITEX.

  8. Dormant season grazing may decrease wildfire probability by increasing fuel moisture and reducing fuel amount and continuity

    Science.gov (United States)

    1. Wildfire is an ecological and economic risk for many semi-arid rangelands across the globe. This coupled with extreme wildfire seasons and mega-fires over the last decade have resulted in a call for more pre-suppression management actions. Dormant season grazing has been suggested as a treatment...

  9. Climate Change, Fuels, and Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-29

    Climate Change , Fuels, and Wildfire November 29, 2011 Partners in Environmental Technology Technical Symposium & Workshop SERDP|ESTCP Anthony...NOV 2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Climate Change , Fuels, and Wildfire 5a. CONTRACT...drivers of fire activity in very diverse ecosystems in California and the Northern Rockies, and summarize how climate change may affect these. In order to

  10. Ignition of Propellants Through Nanostructured Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-31

    and nano- energetics for ignition of fuel spray. There are a number of properties that are desirable for an ignition system. Ideally an ignition...system should be robust, efficient , reliable, simple, low cost, and flexible. Also, an ignition system should initiate combustion under a broad range...ignition properties of nanoparticles and nano- energetics for the ignition of a fuel spray. We believed that we could improve the robustness, simplicity

  11. Protection from erosion following wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot

    2006-01-01

    Erosion in the first year after a wildfire can be up to three orders of magnitude greater than the erosion from undisturbed forests. To mitigate potential postfire erosion, various erosion control treatments are applied on highly erodible areas with downstream resources in need of protection. Because postfire erosion rates generally decline by an order of magnitude for...

  12. Wildfire: A Family Activity Book.

    Science.gov (United States)

    WGBH-TV, Boston, MA.

    This family activity book provides information for discovering and demonstrating the science of fire--how firefighters decide which fires to let burn and which to put out, how fires start and spread, and what to do when they flare up. Chapters include: (1) "A Game about Wildfire"; (2) "Create a Fire Safety Commercial"; (3)…

  13. Estimating wildfire behavior and effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank A. Albini

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents a brief survey of the research literature on wildfire behavior and effects and assembles formulae and graphical computation aids based on selected theoretical and empirical models. The uses of mathematical fire behavior models are discussed, and the general capabilities and limitations of currently available models are outlined.

  14. Eucalypt smoke and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maleknia, Simin D.; Bell, Tina L.; Adams, Mark A.

    2009-01-01

    Eucalypt contributions to biogenic sources of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in Australia are estimated at teragram (Tg = 1012 g) amounts each year. Biogenic VOCs include plant-specific isoprenoids (isoprene and a range of terpenes) and other reactive organic compounds (i.e., acids, aldehydes and ketones). Atmospheric reactions of VOCs are numerous and many have significant environmental impact. Wildfires increase both the amounts of VOCs released and the complexity of their reactions. Proton-transfer reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS), gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS) and direct analysis in real time (DART) mass spectrometry were applied to analyze release of VOCs as a function of temperatures ranging from ambient to combustion. PTR-MS enabled trace level analysis of VOCs from a complex forest atmosphere and revealed the release of terpenes associated with leaf damage during a storm. Temperature profile studies revealed ion abundances (i.e., emissions of VOCs) could be correlated with boiling points and vapor pressures of specific compounds. PTR-MS analysis of VOCs resulting from heating fresh leaf (E. grandis) material suggested that emissions of protonated methanol (m/z 33) and protonated acetaldehyde (m/z 45) were greatest at ~60 °C while m/z 137 and 153 (associated with a series of terpenes) showed monotonic increases in ion abundance over a wide temperature range from ambient to 200 °C. GCMS analysis of fresh and senescent leaves of E. grandis showed that a series of VOCs (ethylvinylketone, diethylketone, 2-ethylfuran, hexanal and hexenals) are present only in fresh leaves while several terpenes ([alpha] and [beta] pinenes, [alpha]-phellandrene, eucalyptol, [gamma]-terpinene) were common in both. DART analysis of fresh leaf and stem of E. sideroxylon identified tissue-specific VOCs (e.g., methanol and ethanol were more abundant in stems). PTR-MS combustion studies of senescent leaves (E. grandis) identified two distinct, temperature

  15. Assessing wildfire occurrence probability in Pinus pinaster Ait. stands in Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques, S.; Garcia-Gonzalo, J.; Botequim, B.; Ricardo, A.; Borges, J. G.; Tome, M.; Oliveira, M. M.

    2012-11-01

    Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) is an important conifer from the western Mediterranean Basin extending over 22% of the forest area in Portugal. In the last three decades nearly 4% of Maritime pine area has been burned by wildfires. Yet no wildfire occurrence probability models are available and forest and fire management planning activities are thus carried out mostly independently of each other. This paper presents research to address this gap. Specifically, it presents a model to assess wildfire occurrence probability in regular and pure Maritime pine stands in Portugal. Emphasis was in developing a model based on easily available inventory data so that it might be useful to forest managers. For that purpose, data from the last two Portuguese National Forest Inventories (NFI) and data from wildfire perimeters in the years from 1998 to 2004 and from 2006 to 2007 were used. A binary logistic regression model was build using biometrics data from the NFI. Biometric data included indicators that might be changed by operations prescribed in forest planning. Results showed that the probability of wildfire occurrence in a stand increases in stand located at steeper slopes and with high shrubs load while it decreases with precipitation and with stand basal area. These results are instrumental for assessing the impact of forest management options on wildfire probability thus helping forest managers to reduce the risk of wildfires. (Author) 57 refs.

  16. A qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk perception and treatment options as related to wildfires in the USDA FS Region 3 National Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingrid M. Martin; Wade E. Martin; Carol B. Raish

    2011-01-01

    As the incidence of devastating fires rises, managing the risk posed by these fires has become critical. This report provides important information to examine the ways that different groups or disaster subcultures develop the mentalities or perceived realities that affect their views and responses concerning risk and disaster preparedness. Fire risk beliefs and...

  17. Piezoelectrically Initiated Pyrotechnic Igniter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quince, Asia; Dutton, Maureen; Hicks, Robert; Burnham, Karen

    2013-01-01

    This innovation consists of a pyrotechnic initiator and piezoelectric initiation system. The device will be capable of being initiated mechanically; resisting initiation by EMF, RF, and EMI (electromagnetic field, radio frequency, and electromagnetic interference, respectively); and initiating in water environments and space environments. Current devices of this nature are initiated by the mechanical action of a firing pin against a primer. Primers historically are prone to failure. These failures are commonly known as misfires or hang-fires. In many cases, the primer shows the dent where the firing pin struck the primer, but the primer failed to fire. In devices such as "T" handles, which are commonly used to initiate the blowout of canopies, loss of function of the device may result in loss of crew. In devices such as flares or smoke generators, failure can result in failure to spot a downed pilot. The piezoelectrically initiated ignition system consists of a pyrotechnic device that plugs into a mechanical system (activator), which on activation, generates a high-voltage spark. The activator, when released, will strike a stack of electrically linked piezo crystals, generating a high-voltage, low-amperage current that is then conducted to the pyro-initiator. Within the initiator, an electrode releases a spark that passes through a pyrotechnic first-fire mixture, causing it to combust. The combustion of the first-fire initiates a primary pyrotechnic or explosive powder. If used in a "T" handle, the primary would ramp the speed of burn up to the speed of sound, generating a shock wave that would cause a high explosive to go "high order." In a flare or smoke generator, the secondary would produce the heat necessary to ignite the pyrotechnic mixture. The piezo activator subsystem is redundant in that a second stack of crystals would be struck at the same time with the same activation force, doubling the probability of a first strike spark generation. If the first

  18. Longitudinal Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response to Wildfire, Bastrop County, Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Katie R; Feldt, Bonnie A; Zane, David F; Haywood, Tracy; Jones, Russell W; Horney, Jennifer A

    2016-01-01

    On September 4, 2011, a wildfire ignited in Bastrop County, Texas, resulting in losses of 34,068 acres of land and 1,645 homes and 2 deaths. At the request of the Texas Department of State Health Services Health Service Region 7 and the Bastrop County Office of Emergency Management, Community Assessments for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) were conducted in the weeks following the wildfire and again 3.5 years later to assess both the immediate and long-term public health and preparedness impacts of the wildfire. The objective of these assessments was to learn more about the trajectory of disaster recovery, including rebuilding, evacuation, household emergency planning, and mental and physical health outcomes among both adults and children. In 2015, households exposed to the 2011 wildfires were significantly more likely to have established a family meeting place and evacuation route, to have confidence in the local government's ability to respond to disaster, and to report symptoms of depression and higher stress. Longitudinal assessments using the CASPER method can provide actionable information for improved planning, preparedness, and recovery to public health and emergency management agencies and community residents.

  19. Characterizing Early Succession Following Wildfires at Different Severities in Boreal Bog and Fen Peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, E. J.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Kane, E. S.; Wagenbrenner, J. W.; Endres, S.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic-boreal region is experiencing changes in climate, trending toward warmer summers, resulting in a greater occurrence of wildfires with longer burning periods and higher intensities. Drought-like conditions have dried surface fuels, leading to a higher probability of ignition, even in lowland peatlands. Previous work has been done to characterize post-fire succession rates in Arctic-boreal upland sites, but much less is known of fire effects and early successional dynamics in lowlands. Wildland fires are the number one disturbance in Canada's Northwest Territories (NWT), which characteristically burn at high intensities with large flame fronts, and result in some of the biggest wildfires in the world. Areas surrounding the Great Slave Lake, NWT—including parts of the Taiga Plains, Taiga Shield, and Boreal Plains ecozones—experienced exceptional wildfire activity in 2014 and 2015. We characterized burn severity of the bog and fen peat surface and canopy layers at several burned sites. To determine if the severe ground or crown wildfires were stand-replacing events, we characterized post-fire vegetation in peatlands in 2015 and 2016 based on seedling regeneration. We stratified sites according to estimated water residence times across the three ecozones and made comparisons between data collected at the same sites across years. This work adds much needed context for post-fire succession in boreal peatland ecosystems, as the susceptibility of these systems to burning will continue to increase with a warming climate.

  20. Extreme Wildfire Spread and Behaviour: Case Studies from North Sardinia, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salis, M.; Arca, B.; Ager, A.; Fois, C.; Bacciu, V.; Duce, P.; Spano, D.

    2012-04-01

    Worldwide, fire seasons are usually characterized by the occurrence of one or more days with extreme environmental conditions, such as heat waves associated with strong winds. On these days, fires can quickly get out of hand originating large and severe wildfires. In these cases, containment and extinguishment phases are critical, considering that the imperative goal is to keep fire crews, people and animals safe. In this work we will present a set of large and severe wildfires occurred with extreme environmental conditions in the northern area of Sardinia. The most recent wildfire we will describe was ignited on July 13, 2011 in the Oschiri municipality (40°43' N; 9°06' E), and burned about 2,500 ha of wooded and herbaceous pastures and oakwoods in few hours. The second wildfire we will present was ignited on July 23, 2009 in the Bonorva municipality (40°25' N; 8° 46' E), and was responsible for the death of two people and several damages to houses, animals and farms. This wildfire lasted on July 25, and burned about 10,000 ha of wooded and herbaceous pastures; the most of the area was burned during the first day. The last wildfire we will describe was ignited on July 23, 2007 in the Oniferi municipality (40°16' N; 9° 16' E) and burned about 9,000 ha of wooded and herbaceous pastures and oakwoods; about 8,000 ha were burned after 11 hours of propagation. All these wildfires were ignited in days characterized by very hot temperatures associated to the effect of air masses moving from inland North Africa to the Mediterranean Basin, and strong winds from west-south west. This is one of the typical weather pattern associated with large and severe wildfires in North Sardinia, and is well documented in the last years. Weather conditions, fuels and topography factors related to each case study will be accurately analyzed. Moreover, a detailed overview of observed fire spread and behavior and post-fire vegetation recovery will be presented. The fire spread and

  1. The 2007 southern California wildfires: Lessons in complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, J.E.; Safford, H.; Fotheringham, C.J.; Franklin, J.; Moritz, M.

    2009-01-01

    The 2007 wildfire season in southern California burned over 1,000,000 ac (400,000 ha) and included several megafires. We use the 2007 fires as a case study to draw three major lessons about wildfires and wildfire complexity in southern California. First, the great majority of large fires in southern California occur in the autumn under the influence of Santa Ana windstorms. These fires also cost the most to contain and cause the most damage to life and property, and the October 2007 fires were no exception because thousands of homes were lost and seven people were killed. Being pushed by wind gusts over 100 kph, young fuels presented little barrier to their spread as the 2007 fires reburned considerable portions of the area burned in the historic 2003 fire season. Adding to the size of these fires was the historic 2006-2007 drought that contributed to high dead fuel loads and long distance spotting. As in 2003, young chaparral stands and fuel treatments were not reliable barriers to fire in October 2007. Second, the Zaca Fire in July and August 2007 showed that other factors besides high winds can sometimes combine to create conditions for large fires in southern California. Spring and summer fires in southern California chaparral are usually easily contained because of higher fuel moisture and the general lack of high winds. However, the Zaca Fire burned in a remote wilderness area of rugged terrain that made access difficult. In addition, because of its remoteness, anthropogenic ignitions have been low and stand age and fuel loads were high. Coupled with this was severe drought that year that generated fuel moisture levels considerably below normal for early summer. A third lesson comes from 2007 conifer forest fires in the southern California mountains. In contrast to lower elevation chaparral, fire suppression has led to major increases in conifer forest fuels that can lead to unnaturally severe fires when ignitions escape control. The Slide and Grass Valley

  2. Amphibian responses to wildfire in the western united states: Emerging patterns from short-term studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossack, B.R.; Pilliod, D.S.

    2011-01-01

    The increased frequency and severity of large wildfires in the western United States is an important ecological and management issue with direct relevance to amphibian conservation. Although the knowledge of fire effects on amphibians in the region is still limited relative to most other vertebrate species, we reviewed the current literature to determine if there are evident patterns that might be informative for conservation or management strategies. Of the seven studies that compared pre- and post-wildfire data on a variety of metrics, ranging from amphibian occupancy to body condition, two reported positive responses and five detected negative responses by at least one species. Another seven studies used a retrospective approach to compare effects of wildfire on populations: two studies reported positive effects, three reported negative effects from wildfire, and two reported no effects. All four studies that included plethodontid salamanders reported negative effects on populations or individuals; these effects were greater in forests where fire had been suppressed and in areas that burned with high severity. Species that breed in streams are also vulnerable to post-wildfire changes in habitat, especially in the Southwest. Wildfire is also important for maintaining suitable habitat for diverse amphibian communities, although those results may not be evident immediately after an area burns. We expect that wildfire will extirpate few healthy amphibian populations, but it is still unclear how populations will respond to wildfire in the context of land management (including pre- and post-fire timber harvest) and fragmentation. Wildfire may also increase the risk of decline or extirpation for small, isolated, or stressed (e.g., from drought or disease) populations. Improved understanding of how these effects vary according to changes in fire frequency and severity are critical to form more effective conservation strategies for amphibians in the western United States.

  3. Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoennagel, Tania; Balch, Jennifer K; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Dennison, Philip E; Harvey, Brian J; Krawchuk, Meg A; Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Morgan, Penelope; Moritz, Max A; Rasker, Ray; Turner, Monica G; Whitlock, Cathy

    2017-05-02

    Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland-urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are ( i ) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; ( ii ) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; ( iii ) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and ( iv ) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland-urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire.

  4. Situating Hazard Vulnerability: People's Negotiations with Wildfire Environments in the U.S. Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Timothy W.; Bolin, Bob

    2009-09-01

    This article is based on a multimethod study designed to clarify influences on wildfire hazard vulnerability in Arizona’s White Mountains, USA. Findings reveal that multiple factors operating across scales generate socially unequal wildfire risks. At the household scale, conflicting environmental values, reliance on fire insurance and firefighting institutions, a lack of place dependency, and social vulnerability (e.g., a lack of financial, physical, and/or legal capacity to reduce risks) were found to be important influences on wildfire risk. At the regional-scale, the shift from a resource extraction to environmental amenity-based economy has transformed ecological communities, produced unequal social distributions of risks and resources, and shaped people’s social and environmental interactions in everyday life. While working-class locals are more socially vulnerable than amenity migrants to wildfire hazards, they have also been more active in attempting to reduce risks in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire. Social tensions between locals and amenity migrants temporarily dissolved immediately following the disaster, only to be exacerbated by the heightened perception of risk and the differential commitment to hazard mitigation displayed by these groups over a 2-year study period. Findings suggest that to enhance wildfire safety, environmental managers should acknowledge the environmental benefits associated with hazardous landscapes, the incentives created by risk management programs, and the specific constraints to action for relevant social groups in changing human-environmental context.

  5. The Growing Public Health Impact of Wildfire Smoke Emissions Webinar

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is a brief discussion of wildfire smoke and its health effects along with tools available to provide public health guidance during wildfire events, including the Wildfire Smoke Guide for Public Health Officials

  6. Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

    2015-09-01

    continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load, and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

  7. Wildfire and Spatial Patterns in Forests in Northwestern Mexico: The United States Wishes It Had Similar Fire Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott L. Stephens

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the ecological effect of wildfire is important to resource managers, especially from forests in which past anthropogenic influences, e.g., fire suppression and timber harvesting, have been limited. Changes to forest structure and regeneration patterns were documented in a relatively unique old-growth Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forest in northwestern Mexico after a July 2003 wildfire. This forested area has never been harvested and fire suppression did not begin until the 1970s. Fire effects were moderate especially considering that the wildfire occurred at the end of a severe, multi-year (1999-2003 drought. Shrub consumption was an important factor in tree mortality and the dominance of Jeffrey pine increased after fire. The Baja California wildfire enhanced or maintained a patchy forest structure; similar spatial heterogeneity should be included in US forest restoration plans. Most US forest restoration plans include thinning from below to separate tree crowns and attain a narrow range for residual basal area/ha. This essentially produces uniform forest conditions over broad areas that are in strong contrast to the resilient forests in northern Baja California. In addition to producing more spatial heterogeneity in restoration plans of forests that once experienced frequent, low-moderate intensity fire regimes, increased use of US wildfire management options such as wildland fire use as well as appropriate management responses to non-natural ignitions could also be implemented at broader spatial scales to increase the amount of burning in western US forests.

  8. Mitigating wildfire carbon loss in managed northern peatlands through restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granath, Gustaf; Moore, Paul A.; Lukenbach, Maxwell C.; Waddington, James M.

    2016-06-01

    Northern peatlands can emit large amounts of carbon and harmful smoke pollution during a wildfire. Of particular concern are drained and mined peatlands, where management practices destabilize an array of ecohydrological feedbacks, moss traits and peat properties that moderate water and carbon losses in natural peatlands. Our results demonstrate that drained and mined peatlands in Canada and northern Europe can experience catastrophic deep burns (>200 t C ha-1 emitted) under current weather conditions. Furthermore, climate change will cause greater water losses in these peatlands and subject even deeper peat layers to wildfire combustion. However, the rewetting of drained peatlands and the restoration of mined peatlands can effectively lower the risk of these deep burns, especially if a new peat moss layer successfully establishes and raises peat moisture content. We argue that restoration efforts are a necessary measure to mitigate the risk of carbon loss in managed peatlands under climate change.

  9. Creation a Geo Big Data Outreach and Training Collaboratory for Wildfire Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altintas, I.; Sale, J.; Block, J.; Cowart, C.; Crawl, D.

    2015-12-01

    student internships. Students have worked closely with WIFIRE researchers on various projects including the development of statistical models of wildfire ignition probabilities for southern California, and the development of a smartphone app for crowd-sourced wildfire reporting through social networks such as Twitter and Facebook.

  10. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  11. Nanoporous Silicon Ignition of JA2 Propellant

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    suggested the use of an additional igniter material. Nano bismuth oxide and nano cuprous oxide thermites were both attempted as supplemental igniter...materials. The nano bismuth oxide thermite did not ignite the JA2, but the nano cuprous thermite did succussfully provide ignition. 15. SUBJECT TERMS...nanoporous silicon, JA2 propellant, thermite , ignition 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 26

  12. Sheltering patterns and utilization following the 2007 southern California wildfires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Thomas D; Jenkins, J Lee; Sauer, Lauren M; Hsieh, Yu-Hsiang; Calvello, Emilie; Hsu, Edbert

    2009-01-01

    The 2007 southern California wildfires resulted in over 500,000 residents being displaced. A team from Johns Hopkins University and the American Red Cross surveyed 163 families at shelters and local assistance centers during the disaster. The responses were used to evaluate the needs and movement patterns of a displaced population. The data were also used to determine the risk factors associated with needing sheltering. There is a lower than expected reliance on public shelters, and displaced persons move frequently.

  13. DTRA National Ignition Facility (NIF)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-16

    fusion ignition in a spherical capsule containing fusion fuel, which consists of the hydrogen isotopes deuterium and tritium. Ignition is taken to...mean that the fusion energy yield from the deuterium -tritium reactions is to be at least equal to the laser energy delivered to the target that...or a mixture of gases, such as krypton and xenon, at a pressure of about one atmosphere. The gas is contained in a thin-walled beryllium cylinder

  14. Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Mark A. Finney; David E. Calkin; Michael S. Hand; Mark J. Browne; Martin Halek; Karen C. Short; Isaac C. Grenfell

    2015-01-01

    Wildfire activity and escalating suppression costs continue to threaten the financial health of federal land management agencies. In order to minimize and effectively manage the cost of financial risk, agencies need the ability to quantify that risk. A fundamental aim of this research effort, therefore, is to develop a process for generating risk-based metrics for...

  15. Conceptual Design - Polar Drive Ignition Campaign

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, R

    2012-04-05

    The Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE) at the University of Rochester is proposing a collaborative effort with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL), the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), and General Atomics (GA) with the goal of developing a cryogenic polar drive (PD) ignition platform on the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The scope of this proposed project requires close discourse among theorists, experimentalists, and laser and system engineers. This document describes how this proposed project can be broken into a series of parallel independent activities that, if implemented, could deliver this goal in the 2017 timeframe. This Conceptual Design document is arranged into two sections: mission need and design requirements. Design requirements are divided into four subsystems: (1) A point design that details the necessary target specifications and laser pulse requirements; (2) The beam smoothing subsystem that describes the MultiFM 1D smoothing by spectral dispersion (SSD); (3) New optical elements that include continuous phase plates (CPP's) and distributed polarization rotators (DPR's); and (4) The cryogenic target handling and insertion subsystem, which includes the design, fabrication, testing, and deployment of a dedicated PD ignition target insertion cryostat (PD-ITIC). This document includes appendices covering: the primary criteria and functional requirements, the system design requirements, the work breakdown structure, the target point design, the experimental implementation plan, the theoretical unknowns and technical implementation risks, the estimated cost and schedule, the development plan for the DPR's, the development plan for MultiFM 1D SSD, and a list of acronym definitions. While work on the facility modifications required for PD ignition has been in progress for some time, some of the technical details required to define the specific modifications for a Conceptual Design

  16. Improving European Wildfire Emergency Information Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bielski, Conrad; Whitmore, Ceri; O'Brien, Victoria; Zeug, Gunter; Kalas, Milan; Porras, Ignasi; Solé, Josep Maria; Gálvez, Pedro; Navarro, Maria; Nurmi, Pertti; Kilpinen, Juha; Ylinen, Kaisa; Furllanelo, Cesare; Maggio, Valerio; Alikadic, Azra; Dolci, Claudia

    2017-04-01

    European wildfires are a seasonal natural hazard that many regions must battle regularly. However, as European urbanization continues to encroach on natural areas and the climate changes it is likely that the frequency of wildfires will increase likewise the number of areas prone to wildfires. It is therefore paramount not only to increase public awareness of this natural hazard but also to be prepared by improving wildfire hazard forecasting, monitoring, and mapping. As part of the H2020 funded project entitled Improving Resilience to Emergencies through Advanced Cyber Technologies: I-REACT (Grant Agreement #700256) , there is a task with the goal to develop models and implement technologies to improve the support around the entire emergency management cycle with respect to wildfire hazards. Based on operational weather forecasts, pan-European geospatial data as well as regularly acquired Earth Observation imagery through the Copernicus program, and other sources of information such as social media channels a European wildfire service is being developed. This will be achieved by improving on the successes of the European Forest Fire Information Service (EFFIS) and the guidance of emergency managers experienced in wildfire hazards. Part of the research will be to reduce the number of false alarms. However, once a wildfire has been identified, the system focuses on the disaster region to provide situational information to the decision makers applying state-of-the-art approaches to improve disaster response. Post-wildfire information will continue to be produced for damage and recovery assessments. Ultimately, I-REACT expects to reduce wildfire costs to life, property and livelihood. This work will improve wildfire disaster emergency management through the development and integration of new data and technologies respectively as well as the knowledge from emergency managers who not only understand the hazard itself but also can provide insights into the information

  17. Multimodal Friction Ignition Tester

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Eddie; Howard, Bill; Herald, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    The multimodal friction ignition tester (MFIT) is a testbed for experiments on the thermal and mechanical effects of friction on material specimens in pressurized, oxygen-rich atmospheres. In simplest terms, a test involves recording sensory data while rubbing two specimens against each other at a controlled normal force, with either a random stroke or a sinusoidal stroke having controlled amplitude and frequency. The term multimodal in the full name of the apparatus refers to a capability for imposing any combination of widely ranging values of the atmospheric pressure, atmospheric oxygen content, stroke length, stroke frequency, and normal force. The MFIT was designed especially for studying the tendency toward heating and combustion of nonmetallic composite materials and the fretting of metals subjected to dynamic (vibrational) friction forces in the presence of liquid oxygen or pressurized gaseous oxygen test conditions approximating conditions expected to be encountered in proposed composite material oxygen tanks aboard aircraft and spacecraft in flight. The MFIT includes a stainless-steel pressure vessel capable of retaining the required test atmosphere. Mounted atop the vessel is a pneumatic cylinder containing a piston for exerting the specified normal force between the two specimens. Through a shaft seal, the piston shaft extends downward into the vessel. One of the specimens is mounted on a block, denoted the pressure block, at the lower end of the piston shaft. This specimen is pressed down against the other specimen, which is mounted in a recess in another block, denoted the slip block, that can be moved horizontally but not vertically. The slip block is driven in reciprocating horizontal motion by an electrodynamic vibration exciter outside the pressure vessel. The armature of the electrodynamic exciter is connected to the slip block via a horizontal shaft that extends into the pressure vessel via a second shaft seal. The reciprocating horizontal

  18. Harvesting morels after wildfire in Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tricia L. Wurtz; Amy L. Wiita; Nancy S. Weber; David. Pilz

    2005-01-01

    Morels are edible, choice wild mushrooms that sometimes fruit prolifically in the years immediately after an area has been burned by wildfire. Wildfires are common in interior Alaska; an average of 708,700 acres burned each year in interior Alaska between 1961 and 2000, and in major fire years, over 2 million acres burned. We discuss Alaska's boreal forest...

  19. Thinking of Wildfire as a Natural Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah McCaffrey

    2004-01-01

    Natural hazards theory with its emphasis on understanding the human-hazard interaction has much to offer in better understanding how individuals respond to the wildfire hazard. Ironically, very few natural hazards studies have actually looked at wildfires, despite the insights the field might offer. This report is structured around four interrelated questions that are...

  20. Mapping the Relationship Between Wildfire and Poverty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathy Lynn; Wendy Gerlitz

    2006-01-01

    Wildfires and related government roles and responsibilities for federal wildland management are prominent in our national consciousness because of the increased severity in the last decade of fires on and around public lands. In recent years, laws, strategies, and implementation documents have been issued to direct federal efforts for wildfire prevention, firefighting...

  1. Wind erosion of soils burned by wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    N. S. Wagenbrenner; M. J. Germino; B. K. Lamb; R. B. Foltz; P. R. Robichaud

    2011-01-01

    Wind erosion and aeolian transport processes are largely unstudied in the post-wildfire environment, but recent studies have shown that wind erosion can play a major role in burned landscapes. A wind erosion monitoring system was installed immediately following a wildfire in southeastern Idaho, USA to measure wind erosion from the burned area (Figure 1). This paper...

  2. Rehabilitation and recovery following wildfires: a synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee H. MacDonald

    1989-01-01

    Wildfires traditionally have been regarded as a threat to many of the multiple resources produced by forest lands. Timber, fish, recreation, and water are all important forest products that can be adversely affected by wildfires. The greatest threat, however, is to the long-term productivity of the land. Foresters are particularly aware of this threat because the...

  3. Israel wildfires: future trends, impacts and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittenberg, Lea

    2017-04-01

    Forest fires in the Euro-Mediterranean region burn about 450,000 ha each year. In Israel, the frequency and extent of wildfires have been steadily increasing over the past decades, culminating in several large and costly fires in 2010, 2012 and 2016. The extensive development of forest areas since the 1950's and the accumulation of fuel in the forests, has led to increased occurrences of high intensity fires. Land-use changes and human population growth are the most prevailing and common determinant of wildfire occurrence and impacts. Climate extremes, possibly already a sign of regional climate change, are another frequent determinant of increasing wildfire risk. Therefore, the combination of extreme dry spells, high fuel loads and increased anthropogenic pressure on the open spaces result in an overall amplified wildfire risk. These fires not only cause loss of life and damage to properties but also carry serious environmental repercussions. Combustion of standing vegetation and the leaf litter leave the soil bare and vulnerable to runoff and erosion, thereby increasing risks of flooding. Today, all of Israel's open spaces, forests, natural parks, major metropolitan centers, towns and villages are embedded within the wildland urban interface (WUI). Typically, wildfires near or in the WUI occur on uplands and runoff generated from the burned area poses flooding risks in urban and agricultural zones located downstream. Post-fire management aims at reducing associated hazards as collapsing trees and erosion risk. Often the time interval between a major fire and the definition of priority sites is in the order of days-to-weeks since administrative procedures, financial estimates and implementation of post-fire salvage logging operations require time. Defining the magnitude of the burn scar and estimating its potential impact on runoff and erosion must therefore be done quickly. A post-fire burn severity, runoff and erosion model is a useful tool in estimating

  4. Review: laser ignition for aerospace propulsion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven A. O’Briant

    2016-03-01

    This paper aims to provide the reader an overview of advanced ignition methods, with an emphasis on laser ignition and its applications to aerospace propulsion. A comprehensive review of advanced ignition systems in aerospace applications is performed. This includes studies on gas turbine applications, ramjet and scramjet systems, and space and rocket applications. A brief overview of ignition and laser ignition phenomena is also provided in earlier sections of the report. Throughout the reading, research papers, which were presented at the 2nd Laser Ignition Conference in April 2014, are mentioned to indicate the vast array of projects that are currently being pursued.

  5. Enhanced Model for Fast Ignition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mason, Rodney J. [Research Applications Corporation, Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2010-10-12

    Laser Fusion is a prime candidate for alternate energy production, capable of serving a major portion of the nation's energy needs, once fusion fuel can be readily ignited. Fast Ignition may well speed achievement of this goal, by reducing net demands on laser pulse energy and timing precision. However, Fast Ignition has presented a major challenge to modeling. This project has enhanced the computer code ePLAS for the simulation of the many specialized phenomena, which arise with Fast Ignition. The improved code has helped researchers to understand better the consequences of laser absorption, energy transport, and laser target hydrodynamics. ePLAS uses efficient implicit methods to acquire solutions for the electromagnetic fields that govern the accelerations of electrons and ions in targets. In many cases, the code implements fluid modeling for these components. These combined features, "implicitness and fluid modeling," can greatly facilitate calculations, permitting the rapid scoping and evaluation of experiments. ePLAS can be used on PCs, Macs and Linux machines, providing researchers and students with rapid results. This project has improved the treatment of electromagnetics, hydrodynamics, and atomic physics in the code. It has simplified output graphics, and provided new input that avoids the need for source code access by users. The improved code can now aid university, business and national laboratory users in pursuit of an early path to success with Fast Ignition.

  6. Igniter heater EMI transient test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, M.

    1989-01-01

    Testing to evaluate Redesigned Solid Rocket Motor igniter heater electromagnetic interference (EMI) effects on the Safe and Arm (S and A) device was completed. It was suspected that EMI generated by the igniter heater and it's associated electromechanical relay could cause a premature firing of the NASA Standard Initiators (NSIs) inside the S and A. The maximum voltage induced into the NSI fire lines was 1/4 of the NASA specified no-fire limit of one volt (SKB 26100066). As a result, the igniter heaters are not expected to have any adverse EMI effects on the NSIs. The results did show, however, that power switching causes occasional high transients within the igniter heater power cable. These transients could affect the sensitive equipment inside the forward skirt. It is therefore recommended that the electromechanical igniter heater relays be replaced with zero crossing solid state relays. If the solid state relays are installed, it is also recommended that they be tested for EMI transient effects.

  7. Housing arrangement and location determine the likelihood of housing loss due to wildfire.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra D Syphard

    Full Text Available Surging wildfires across the globe are contributing to escalating residential losses and have major social, economic, and ecological consequences. The highest losses in the U.S. occur in southern California, where nearly 1000 homes per year have been destroyed by wildfires since 2000. Wildfire risk reduction efforts focus primarily on fuel reduction and, to a lesser degree, on house characteristics and homeowner responsibility. However, the extent to which land use planning could alleviate wildfire risk has been largely missing from the debate despite large numbers of homes being placed in the most hazardous parts of the landscape. Our goal was to examine how housing location and arrangement affects the likelihood that a home will be lost when a wildfire occurs. We developed an extensive geographic dataset of structure locations, including more than 5500 structures that were destroyed or damaged by wildfire since 2001, and identified the main contributors to property loss in two extensive, fire-prone regions in southern California. The arrangement and location of structures strongly affected their susceptibility to wildfire, with property loss most likely at low to intermediate structure densities and in areas with a history of frequent fire. Rates of structure loss were higher when structures were surrounded by wildland vegetation, but were generally higher in herbaceous fuel types than in higher fuel-volume woody types. Empirically based maps developed using housing pattern and location performed better in distinguishing hazardous from non-hazardous areas than maps based on fuel distribution. The strong importance of housing arrangement and location indicate that land use planning may be a critical tool for reducing fire risk, but it will require reliable delineations of the most hazardous locations.

  8. Housing arrangement and location determine the likelihood of housing loss due to wildfire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D; Keeley, Jon E; Massada, Avi Bar; Brennan, Teresa J; Radeloff, Volker C

    2012-01-01

    Surging wildfires across the globe are contributing to escalating residential losses and have major social, economic, and ecological consequences. The highest losses in the U.S. occur in southern California, where nearly 1000 homes per year have been destroyed by wildfires since 2000. Wildfire risk reduction efforts focus primarily on fuel reduction and, to a lesser degree, on house characteristics and homeowner responsibility. However, the extent to which land use planning could alleviate wildfire risk has been largely missing from the debate despite large numbers of homes being placed in the most hazardous parts of the landscape. Our goal was to examine how housing location and arrangement affects the likelihood that a home will be lost when a wildfire occurs. We developed an extensive geographic dataset of structure locations, including more than 5500 structures that were destroyed or damaged by wildfire since 2001, and identified the main contributors to property loss in two extensive, fire-prone regions in southern California. The arrangement and location of structures strongly affected their susceptibility to wildfire, with property loss most likely at low to intermediate structure densities and in areas with a history of frequent fire. Rates of structure loss were higher when structures were surrounded by wildland vegetation, but were generally higher in herbaceous fuel types than in higher fuel-volume woody types. Empirically based maps developed using housing pattern and location performed better in distinguishing hazardous from non-hazardous areas than maps based on fuel distribution. The strong importance of housing arrangement and location indicate that land use planning may be a critical tool for reducing fire risk, but it will require reliable delineations of the most hazardous locations.

  9. Housing arrangement and location determine the likelihood of housing loss due to wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Massada, Avi Bar; Brennan, Teresa J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2012-01-01

    Surging wildfires across the globe are contributing to escalating residential losses and have major social, economic, and ecological consequences. The highest losses in the U.S. occur in southern California, where nearly 1000 homes per year have been destroyed by wildfires since 2000. Wildfire risk reduction efforts focus primarily on fuel reduction and, to a lesser degree, on house characteristics and homeowner responsibility. However, the extent to which land use planning could alleviate wildfire risk has been largely missing from the debate despite large numbers of homes being placed in the most hazardous parts of the landscape. Our goal was to examine how housing location and arrangement affects the likelihood that a home will be lost when a wildfire occurs. We developed an extensive geographic dataset of structure locations, including more than 5500 structures that were destroyed or damaged by wildfire since 2001, and identified the main contributors to property loss in two extensive, fire-prone regions in southern California. The arrangement and location of structures strongly affected their susceptibility to wildfire, with property loss most likely at low to intermediate structure densities and in areas with a history of frequent fire. Rates of structure loss were higher when structures were surrounded by wildland vegetation, but were generally higher in herbaceous fuel types than in higher fuel-volume woody types. Empirically based maps developed using housing pattern and location performed better in distinguishing hazardous from non-hazardous areas than maps based on fuel distribution. The strong importance of housing arrangement and location indicate that land use planning may be a critical tool for reducing fire risk, but it will require reliable delineations of the most hazardous locations.

  10. Housing Arrangement and Location Determine the Likelihood of Housing Loss Due to Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Massada, Avi Bar; Brennan, Teresa J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2012-01-01

    Surging wildfires across the globe are contributing to escalating residential losses and have major social, economic, and ecological consequences. The highest losses in the U.S. occur in southern California, where nearly 1000 homes per year have been destroyed by wildfires since 2000. Wildfire risk reduction efforts focus primarily on fuel reduction and, to a lesser degree, on house characteristics and homeowner responsibility. However, the extent to which land use planning could alleviate wildfire risk has been largely missing from the debate despite large numbers of homes being placed in the most hazardous parts of the landscape. Our goal was to examine how housing location and arrangement affects the likelihood that a home will be lost when a wildfire occurs. We developed an extensive geographic dataset of structure locations, including more than 5500 structures that were destroyed or damaged by wildfire since 2001, and identified the main contributors to property loss in two extensive, fire-prone regions in southern California. The arrangement and location of structures strongly affected their susceptibility to wildfire, with property loss most likely at low to intermediate structure densities and in areas with a history of frequent fire. Rates of structure loss were higher when structures were surrounded by wildland vegetation, but were generally higher in herbaceous fuel types than in higher fuel-volume woody types. Empirically based maps developed using housing pattern and location performed better in distinguishing hazardous from non-hazardous areas than maps based on fuel distribution. The strong importance of housing arrangement and location indicate that land use planning may be a critical tool for reducing fire risk, but it will require reliable delineations of the most hazardous locations. PMID:22470499

  11. Interpreting federal policy at the local level: the wildland-urban interface concept in wildfire protection planning in the eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephanie A. Grayzeck-Souter; Kristen C. Nelson; Rachel F. Brummel; Pamela Jakes; Daniel R. Williams

    2009-01-01

    In 2003, the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA) called for USA communities at risk of wildfire to develop Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs) requiring local, state and federal actors to work together to address hazardous fuels reduction and mitigation efforts. CWPPs can provide the opportunity for local government to influence actions on adjacent public...

  12. Development of Augmented Spark Impinging Igniter System for Methane Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, William M.; Osborne, Robin J.; Greene, Sandra E.

    2017-01-01

    The Lunar Cargo Transportation and Landing by Soft Touchdown (Lunar CATALYST) program is establishing multiple no-funds-exchanged Space Act Agreement (SAA) partnerships with U.S. private sector entities. The purpose of this program is to encourage the development of robotic lunar landers that can be integrated with U.S. commercial launch capabilities to deliver payloads to the lunar surface. As part of the efforts in Lander Technologies, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is developing liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid methane (LCH4) engine technology to share with the Lunar CATALYST partners. Liquid oxygen and liquid methane propellants are attractive owing to their relatively high specific impulse for chemical propulsion systems, modest storage requirements, and adaptability to NASA's Journey to Mars plans. Methane has also been viewed as a possible propellant choice for lunar missions, owing to the performance benefits and as a technology development stepping stone to Martian missions. However, in the development of methane propulsion, methane ignition has historically been viewed as a high risk area in the development of such an engine. A great deal of work has been conducted in the past decade devoted to risk reduction in LOX/CH4 ignition. This paper will review and summarize the history and results of LOX/CH4 ignition programs conducted at NASA. More recently, a NASA-developed Augmented Spark Impinging (ASI) igniter body, which utilizes a conventional spark exciter system, is being tested with LOX/CH4 to help support internal and commercial engine development programs, such as those in Lunar CATALYST. One challenge with spark exciter systems, especially at altitude conditions, is the ignition lead that transmits the high voltage pulse from the exciter to the spark igniter (spark plug). The ignition lead can be prone to corona discharge, reducing the energy delivered by the spark and potentially causing non-ignition events. For the current work, a

  13. Polishing the prism: improving wildfire mitigation planning by coupling landscape and social dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey Koch; Alan Ager; Jeff Kline; Paige Fischer

    2016-01-01

    Effectively addressing wildfire risk to communities on large multi-owner landscapes requires an understanding of the biophysical factors that influence risk, such as fuel loads, topography, and weather, and social factors such as the capacity and willingness for communities to engage in fire-mitigation activities. Biophysical and social processes often are disconnected...

  14. Restoring forest structure and process stabilizes forest carbon in wildfire-prone southwestern ponderosa pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew D. Hurteau; Shuang Liang; Katherine L. Martin; Malcolm P. North; George W. Koch; Bruce A. Hungate

    2016-01-01

    Changing climate and a legacy of fire-exclusion have increased the probability of high-severity wildfire, leading to an increased risk of forest carbon loss in ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern USA. Efforts to reduce high-severity fire risk through forest thinning and prescribed burning require both the removal and emission of carbon from these forests, and...

  15. Goals, obstacles and effective strategies of wildfire mitigation programs in the Wildland-Urban Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margaret A. Reams; Terry K. Haines; Cheryl R. Renner; Michael W. Wascom; Harish Kingre

    2005-01-01

    The dramatic expansion into the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) places property, natural assets, and human life at risk from wildfire destruction. The U.S. National Fire Plan encourages communities to implement laws and outreach programs for pre-fire planning to mitigate the risk to area residents. Starting in 2003, we surveyed the administrators of regulatory and...

  16. Uranium Carbide Powder Ignition Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berthinier, C.; Coullomb, S.; Rado, C.; Le Guyadec, F. [CEA, DEN, DTEC, SDTC, LEME, F-30207 Bagnols-sur-Ceze (France); Chatillon, C.; Blanquet, E.; Boichot, R. [SIMAP, Sciences et Ingenierie des Materiaux et Procedes, INPG-CNRS-UJF ENSEEG, BP 75, 38402 St Martin-d' Heres (France)

    2009-06-15

    Mixed (U, Pu) carbide, constituted by means of 80% of uranium monocarbide (UC), is considered as a possible fuel material for future gas fast reactors or sodium fast reactor. However, UC undergoes a strong exothermic reaction with air and fine powders of UC are pyrophoric. Thus, it is necessary to understand this high reactivity in order to determine safe handling conditions for the production and reprocessing of carbide fuels. UC powder was obtained by arc melting and milling. The reactivity of uranium carbide was studied in oxidizing atmosphere and different experimental devices were used to determine ignition temperatures. The phases formed at the various observed stages of the oxidation process were determined by post-mortem X ray diffraction analysis. Studies were first performed using small quantities of UC powder (around 50 mg) in Differential Thermal Analysis / Thermogravimetric Analysis (DTA/TGA) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). Experiments were realized using different parameters, such as heating rate and gas flow rate and composition, to determine their influence on pyro-phoricity. Results obtained with small quantities (tens of milligrams) revealed that UC powder is highly reactive in air in the range 200- 250 deg. C. Studies were also performed in the 'Pyro' test facility multi-function furnace allowing CCD camera recording, during heating and ignition, through view-ports. Lower ignition temperatures, around 100 deg. C, were obtained using around 1 g UC powder samples. Results are discussed and analysed with theory of burning curve ignition and numerical simulations. Simulations aim to understand the influence of the different parameters on pyro-phoricity. Small scale simulations (on a spherical grain) confirm the influence of UC grains size, heat rate and gas composition on powder ignition temperature with small quantities. The issue is now to understand the influence of grain pile form factor and volume on the pyro-phoricity of

  17. Büroo Ignite = Ignite office / Priit Põldme, Reet Sepp

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Põldme, Priit, 1971-

    2013-01-01

    Büroo Ignite (Tatari 25, Tallinn) sisekujundusest. Sisearhitektid Priit Põldme ja Reet Sepp (SAB Joonprojekt). Arhitektid Heiki Taras ja Ahti Luhaäär (Arhitektibüroo Pilter ja Taras). Sisearhitekti ja ESLi aastapreemiate žürii esimehe Kaido Kivi arvamus

  18. Hydrologic responses to restored wildfire regimes revealed by soil moisture-vegetation relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisramé, Gabrielle; Thompson, Sally; Stephens, Scott

    2018-02-01

    Many forested mountain watersheds worldwide evolved with frequent fire, which Twentieth Century fire suppression activities eliminated, resulting in unnaturally dense forests with high water demand. Restoration of pre-suppression forest composition and structure through a variety of management activities could improve forest resilience and water yields. This study explores the potential for "managed wildfire", whereby naturally ignited fires are allowed to burn, to alter the water balance. Interest in this type of managed wildfire is increasing, yet its long-term effects on water balance are uncertain. We use soil moisture as a spatially-distributed hydrologic indicator to assess the influence of vegetation, fire history and landscape position on water availability in the Illilouette Creek Basin in Yosemite National Park. Over 6000 manual surface soil moisture measurements were made over a period of three years, and supplemented with continuous soil moisture measurements over the top 1m of soil in three sites. Random forest and linear mixed effects models showed a dominant effect of vegetation type and history of vegetation change on measured soil moisture. Contemporary and historical vegetation maps were used to upscale the soil moisture observations to the basin and infer soil moisture under fire-suppressed conditions. Little change in basin-averaged soil moisture was inferred due to managed wildfire, but the results indicated that large localized increases in soil moisture had occurred, which could have important impacts on local ecology or downstream flows.

  19. A Wildfire Behavior Modeling System at Los Alamos National Laboratory for Operational Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S.W. Koch; R.G.Balice

    2004-11-01

    To support efforts to protect facilities and property at Los Alamos National Laboratory from damages caused by wildfire, we completed a multiyear project to develop a system for modeling the behavior of wildfires in the Los Alamos region. This was accomplished by parameterizing the FARSITE wildfire behavior model with locally gathered data representing topography, fuels, and weather conditions from throughout the Los Alamos region. Detailed parameterization was made possible by an extensive monitoring network of permanent plots, weather towers, and other data collection facilities. We also incorporated a database of lightning strikes that can be used individually as repeatable ignition points or can be used as a group in Monte Carlo simulation exercises and in other randomization procedures. The assembled modeling system was subjected to sensitivity analyses and was validated against documented fires, including the Cerro Grande Fire. The resulting modeling system is a valuable tool for research and management. It also complements knowledge based on professional expertise and information gathered from other modeling technologies. However, the modeling system requires frequent updates of the input data layers to produce currently valid results, to adapt to changes in environmental conditions within the Los Alamos region, and to allow for the quick production of model outputs during emergency operations.

  20. Health effects of the 2003 Southern California wildfires on children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Künzli, Nino; Avol, Ed; Wu, Jun; Gauderman, W James; Rappaport, Ed; Millstein, Joshua; Bennion, Jonathan; McConnell, Rob; Gilliland, Frank D; Berhane, Kiros; Lurmann, Fred; Winer, Arthur; Peters, John M

    2006-12-01

    In late October 2003, Southern California wildfires burned more than 3,000 km2. The wildfires produced heavy smoke that affected several communities participating in the University of Southern California Children's Health Study (CHS). To study the acute effects of fire smoke on the health of CHS participants. A questionnaire was used to assess smoke exposure and occurrence of symptoms among CHS high-school students (n = 873; age, 17-18 yr) and elementary-school children (n = 5,551; age, 6-7 yr), in a total of 16 communities. Estimates of particulate matter (PM10) concentrations during the 5 d with the highest fire activity were used to characterize community smoke level. All symptoms (nose, eyes, and throat irritations; cough; bronchitis; cold; wheezing; asthma attacks), medication usage, and physician visits were associated with individually reported exposure differences within communities. Risks increased monotonically with the number of reported smoky days. For most outcomes, reporting rates between communities were also associated with the fire-related PM10 levels. Associations tended to be strongest among those without asthma. Individuals with asthma were more likely to take preventive action, such as wearing masks or staying indoors during the fire. Exposure to wildfire smoke was associated with increased eye and respiratory symptoms, medication use, and physician visits.

  1. 33 CFR 183.410 - Ignition protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Ignition protection. 183.410... Ignition protection. (a) Each electrical component must not ignite a propane gas and air mixture that is 4... both vertically and horizontally the distance of the open space between the fuel source and the...

  2. Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires in the Northern Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heel, Michael; Sass, Oliver; Friedmann, Arne; Wetzel, Karl-Friedrich

    2010-05-01

    Wildfires in the northern Alps are rare compared to e.g. the Mediterranean region. However, fires occurring on the dry, south-exposed slopes of the inner-alpine valleys can constitute a significant disturbance of the ecosystems in the sub-alpine belt. We reconstructed the younger regional wildfire history (last few centuries) of a part of the the Northern Limestone Alps using chronicles, forestry and fire brigade records as well as historical pictures (postcards, aerial photos etc.), local names and interviews with local people. The long-term fire frequency was investigated using mire drillings, charcoal in soils and dendrochronology. In the surrounding of the Karwendel, Wetterstein and Mieminger Mountains we have identified c. 400 forest fires to date. The earliest detected fire dates to more than 2900 years; the largest one (in 1705) affected an area of several thousand hectares. Approximately 90% of the fires are man-made (negligence, arson, railway) which explains the concentration on the south-exposed slopes of the densely populated Inn valley. Most of the larger fires take place in the altitudinal belt between 1400 and 1900 m a.s.l.; apart from very few exceptions, they are restricted to southerly orientations. Locally, mean recurrence intervals of 200-300 years occur which is similar to e.g. boreal forests in Canada. We observed a strong seasonality with 40% of the fires occurring in spring and 30% in summer. There is a weak correlation with the weather conditions in the one or two weeks before the fire with dry periods promoting wildfire ignition and burnt area size; however, there are many exceptions from the rule. The 1940ies stands out for more than twice as much fires than in all other decades which is both due to climatic and anthropogenic causes. Today, there is an apparent trend towards more frequent and smaller fires. The frequency is biased by the multitude of available documentation today (e.g. websites of fire brigades), while the decreasing size

  3. Determination of parameters used to prevent ignition of stored materials and to protect against explosions in food industries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Alvaro; García-Torrent, Javier; Aguado, Pedro J

    2009-08-30

    There are always risks associated with silos when the stored material has been characterized as prone to self-ignition or explosion. Further research focused on the characterization of agricultural materials stored in silos is needed due to the lack of data found in the literature. The aim of this study was to determine the ignitability and explosive parameters of several agricultural products commonly stored in silos in order to assess the risk of ignition and dust explosion. Minimum Ignition Temperature, with dust forming a cloud and deposited in a layer, Lower Explosive Limit, Minimum Ignition Energy, Maximum Explosion Pressure and Maximum Explosion Pressure Rise were determined for seven agricultural materials: icing sugar, maize, wheat and barley grain dust, alfalfa, bread-making wheat and soybean dust. Following characterization, these were found to be prone to producing self-ignition when stored in silos under certain conditions.

  4. Economics of wildfire management the development and application of suppression expenditure models

    CERN Document Server

    Hand, Michael S; Liang, Jingjing; Thompson, Matthew P

    2014-01-01

    In this age of climatic and financial uncertainty, it becomes increasingly important to balance the cost, benefits and risk of wildfire management. In the United States, increased wildland fire activity over the last 15 years has resulted in drastic damage and loss of life. An associated rapid increase in fire management costs has consumed higher portions of budgets of public entities involved in wildfire management, challenging their ability to fulfill other responsibilities. Increased public scrutiny highlights the need to improve wildland fire management for cost effectiveness. This book closely examines the development of basic wildfire suppression cost models for the United States and their application to a wide range of settings from informing incident decision making to programmatic review. The book also explores emerging trends in suppression costs and introduces new spatially explicit cost models to account for characteristics of the burned landscape. Finally, it discusses how emerging risk assessmen...

  5. Plasma ignition of LOVA propellants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driel, C.A. van; Boluijt, A.G.; Schilt, A.

    2010-01-01

    Ignition experiments were performed using a gun simulator which is equipped with a burst disk. This equipment facilitates the application of propellant loading densities which are comparable to those applied in regular ammunitions. For this study the gun simulator was equipped with a plasma jet

  6. Ecohydrological Controls on Peat Consumption During Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, D. K.; Wotton, M.; Turetsky, M. R.; Flannigan, M.; Benscoter, B.; Waddington, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Peat oxidation by smouldering combustion during wildfire represents a carbon flux, though episodic, able to release over 3 kg C ^{m-2} to the atmosphere, along with numerous trace-gas by-products of combustion. In peatlands, smouldering is dominated by a vertical heat transfer and combustion mechanism. We conducted laboratory and modelling studies to examine the interaction of peatland microtopography and hydrology on depth of burn during wildfire. Many peat profiles show a distinct thermodynamic resistance to combustion. Except in cases of extreme drought, Sphagnum fuscum hummocks have sufficiently high water retention such that more energy is required to drive off the water in the upper moss layers than is derived by the combustion of the dry peat. Although our model runs suggest if hummocks of S. fuscum are dry enough to burn the uppermost moss layers (2-3 cm), there is a higher probability of deep ( 30 cm) burning in the hummock due to a 'chain reaction' of combustion through the physically similar peat layers underneath. Enhanced summer water table draw-down and fire intensity serves to increase depth of burn only slightly into deeper humic peat layers in the presence of a water table and hydrostatic equilibrium. However, laboratory water retention analyses show that this humified peat retains less water per unit mass, despite being of greater average bulk density to less humified peat. Thus, smouldering combustion of humic peat has the potential to be more severe compared to less humified peat given the same distance from the water table. In shallow peatlands where the water table can fall beyond the basal mineral layer, evaporative demand is entirely satisfied by loss of water stored in the unsaturated zone. Similarly, in peatlands drained for forestry, transpiration can draw water out of the rooting zone in excess of rates of capillary rise, resulting in non-equilibrium conditions and enhanced risk of deep combustion. In both cases, upper peat horizons can

  7. Desensitizing nano powders to electrostatic discharge ignition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steelman, Ryan [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Clark, Billy [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Pantoya, Michelle L. [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Heaps, Ronald J. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Daniels, Michael A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Electrostatic discharge (ESD) is a main cause for ignition in powder media ranging from grain silos to fireworks. Nanoscale particles are orders of magnitude more ESD ignition sensitive than their micron scale counterparts. This study shows that at least 13 vol. % carbon nanotubes (CNT) added to nano-aluminum and nano-copper oxide particles (nAl + CuO) eliminates ESD ignition sensitivity. The CNT act as a conduit for electric energy and directs electric charge through the powder to desensitize the reactive mixture to ignition. For nanoparticles, the required CNT concentration for desensitizing ESD ignition acts as a diluent to quench energy propagation.

  8. Laser ignition application in a space experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Larry C.; Culley, Dennis E.

    1993-01-01

    A laser ignition system is proposed for the Combustion Experiment Module on an orbiting spacecraft. The results of a design study are given using the scheduled 'Flame Ball Experiment' as the design guidelines. Three laser ignition mechanisms and wavelengths are evaluated. A prototype laser is chosen and its specifications are given, followed by consideration of the beam optical arrangement, the ignition power requirement, the laser ignition system weight, size, reliability, and laser cooling and power consumption. Electromagnetic interference to the onboard electronics caused by the laser ignition process is discussed. Finally, ground tests are suggested.

  9. Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David; Welty, Justin; Arkle, Robert

    2017-01-01

    Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years’ growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1–3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

  10. Refining the cheatgrass-fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David S; Welty, Justin L; Arkle, Robert S

    2017-10-01

    Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years' growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1-3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

  11. Wildfire policy and management in England: an evolving response from Fire and Rescue Services, forestry and cross-sector groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazzard, Rob; McMorrow, Julia; Aylen, Jonathan

    2016-06-05

    Severe wildfires are an intermittent problem in England. The paper presents the first analysis of wildfire policy, showing its halting evolution over two decades. First efforts to coordinate wildfire management came from local fire operation groups, where stakeholders such as fire services, land owners and amenity groups shared knowledge and equipment to tackle the problem. A variety of structures and informal management solutions emerged in response to local needs. Knowledge of wildfire accumulated within regional and national wildfire forums and academic networks. Only later did the need for central emergency planning and the response to climate change produce a national policy response. Fire statistics have allowed wildfires to be spatially evidenced on a national scale only since 2009. National awareness of wildfire was spurred by the 2011 fire season, and the high-impact Swinley Forest fire, which threatened critical infrastructure and communities within 50 miles of London. Severe wildfire was included in the National Risk Register for the first time in 2013. Cross-sector approaches to wildfire proved difficult as government responsibility is fragmented along the hazard chain. Stakeholders such as the Forestry Commission pioneered good practice in adaptive land management to build fire resilience into UK forests. The grass-roots evolution of participatory solutions has also been a key enabling process. A coordinated policy is now needed to identify best practice and to promote understanding of the role of fire in the ecosystem.This article is part of a themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  12. Wildfire and the future of water supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bladon, Kevin D; Emelko, Monica B; Silins, Uldis; Stone, Micheal

    2014-08-19

    In many parts of the world, forests provide high quality water for domestic, agricultural, industrial, and ecological needs, with water supplies in those regions inextricably linked to forest health. Wildfires have the potential to have devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems and community drinking water supply through impacts on water quantity and quality. In recent decades, a combination of fuel load accumulation, climate change, extensive droughts, and increased human presence in forests have resulted in increases in area burned and wildfire severity-a trend predicted to continue. Thus, the implications of wildfire for many downstream water uses are increasingly concerning, particularly the provision of safe drinking water, which may require additional treatment infrastructure and increased operations and maintenance costs in communities downstream of impacted landscapes. A better understanding of the effects of wildfire on water is needed to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to protect globally critical water supplies originating in forested environments.

  13. Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... calendar Spanish-language seminars in Latin America and Spain Public Education By topic Toggle this sub-menu ... 1 says about Christmas trees For the fire service Top causes of fire Expand ... Candle social media posts Cooking Expand sub-navigation Safety messages ...

  14. Wildfire risk estimation in the Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.A. Ager; H.K. Preisler; B. Arca; D Spano; M. Salis

    2014-01-01

    We analyzed wildland fire occurrence and size data from Sardinia, Italy, and Corsica, France, to examine spatiotemporal patterns of fire occurrence in relation to weather, land use, anthropogenic features, and time of year. Fires on these islands are largely human caused and can be attributed to negligence, agro-pastoral land use, and arson. Of particular interest was...

  15. Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

    2008-12-01

    We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for

  16. Climatic Events and Historical Disturbances Control Acute and Chronic Water-Quality Impairment After Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, S. F.; Martin, D. A.; McCleskey, R. B.; Writer, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    concentration, presents a substantial challenge to water-treatment facilities. Climate change is projected to increase wildfire risk and possibly storm frequency and intensity, and thus the risk of wildfire impacts on water supplies is likely to worsen in the future.

  17. Tritium and ignition target management at the National Ignition Facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draggoo, Vaughn

    2013-06-01

    Isotopic mixtures of hydrogen constitute the basic fuel for fusion targets of the National Ignition Facility (NIF). A typical NIF fusion target shot requires approximately 0.5 mmoles of hydrogen gas and as much as 750 GBq (20 Ci) of 3H. Isotopic mix ratios are specified according to the experimental shot/test plan and the associated test objectives. The hydrogen isotopic concentrations, absolute amounts, gas purity, configuration of the target, and the physical configuration of the NIF facility are all parameters and conditions that must be managed to ensure the quality and safety of operations. An essential and key step in the preparation of an ignition target is the formation of a ~60 μm thick hydrogen "ice" layer on the inner surface of the target capsule. The Cryogenic Target Positioning System (Cryo-Tarpos) provides gas handling, cyro-cooling, x-ray imaging systems, and related instrumentation to control the volumes and temperatures of the multiphase (solid, liquid, and gas) hydrogen as the gas is condensed to liquid, admitted to the capsule, and frozen as a single spherical crystal of hydrogen in the capsule. The hydrogen fuel gas is prepared in discrete 1.7 cc aliquots in the LLNL Tritium Facility for each ignition shot. Post-shot hydrogen gas is recovered in the NIF Tritium Processing System (TPS). Gas handling systems, instrumentation and analytic equipment, material accounting information systems, and the shot planning systems must work together to ensure that operational and safety requirements are met.

  18. Shock ignition targets: gain and robustness vs ignition threshold factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atzeni, Stefano; Antonelli, Luca; Schiavi, Angelo; Picone, Silvia; Volponi, Gian Marco; Marocchino, Alberto

    2017-10-01

    Shock ignition is a laser direct-drive inertial confinement fusion scheme, in which the stages of compression and hot spot formation are partly separated. The hot spot is created at the end of the implosion by a converging shock driven by a final ``spike'' of the laser pulse. Several shock-ignition target concepts have been proposed and relevant gain curves computed (see, e.g.). Here, we consider both pure-DT targets and more facility-relevant targets with plastic ablator. The investigation is conducted with 1D and 2D hydrodynamic simulations. We determine ignition threshold factors ITF's (and their dependence on laser pulse parameters) by means of 1D simulations. 2D simulations indicate that robustness to long-scale perturbations increases with ITF. Gain curves (gain vs laser energy), for different ITF's, are generated using 1D simulations. Work partially supported by Sapienza Project C26A15YTMA, Sapienza 2016 (n. 257584), Eurofusion Project AWP17-ENR-IFE-CEA-01.

  19. Progress toward ignition at the National Ignition Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkel, D. E.; Edwards, M. J.; Amendt, P. A.; Benedetti, R.; Berzak Hopkins, L.; Bleuel, D.; Boehly, T. R.; Bradley, D. K.; Caggiano, J. A.; Callahan, D. A.; Celliers, P. M.; Cerjan, C. J.; Clark, D.; Collins, G. W.; Dewald, E. L.; Dittrich, T. R.; Divol, L.; Dixit, S. N.; Doeppner, T.; Edgell, D.; Eggert, J.; Farley, D.; Frenje, J. A.; Glebov, V.; Glenn, S. M.; Haan, S. W.; Hamza, A.; Hammel, B. A.; Haynam, C. A.; Hammer, J. H.; Heeter, R. F.; Herrmann, H. W.; Ho, D.; Hurricane, O.; Izumi, N.; Gatu Johnson, M.; Jones, O. S.; Kalantar, D. H.; Kauffman, R. L.; Kilkenny, J. D.; Kline, J. L.; Knauer, J. P.; Koch, J. A.; Kritcher, A.; Kyrala, G. A.; LaFortune, K.; Landen, O. L.; Lasinski, B. F.; Ma, T.; Mackinnon, A. J.; Macphee, A. J.; Mapoles, E.; Milovich, J. L.; Moody, J. D.; Meeker, D.; Meezan, N. B.; Michel, P.; Moore, A. S.; Munro, D. H.; Nikroo, A.; Olson, R. E.; Opachich, K.; Pak, A.; Parham, T.; Patel, P.; Park, H.-S.; Petrasso, R. P.; Ralph, J.; Regan, S. P.; Remington, B. A.; Rinderknecht, H. G.; Robey, H. F.; Rosen, M. D.; Ross, J. S.; Rygg, R.; Salmonson, J. D.; Sangster, T. C.; Schneider, M. B.; Smalyuk, V.; Spears, B. K.; Springer, P. T.; Storm, E.; Strozzi, D. J.; Suter, L. J.; Thomas, C. A.; Town, R. P. J.; Williams, E. A.; Weber, S. V.; Wegner, P. J.; Wilson, D. C.; Widmann, K.; Yeamans, C.; Zylstra, A.; Lindl, J. D.; Atherton, L. J.; Hsing, W. W.; MacGowan, B. J.; Van Wonterghem, B. M.; Moses, E. I.

    2013-12-01

    Progress toward ignition at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) has been focused on furthering the understanding of implosion performance. Implosion performance depends on the capsule fuel shape, on higher mode asymmetries that may cause hydrodynamic instabilities to quench ignition, on time-dependent asymmetries introduced by the hohlraum target, and on ablator performance. Significant findings in each of these four areas is reported. These investigations have led to improved in-flight capsule shape, a demonstration that a capsule robust to mix can generate high levels of neutrons (7.7 × 1014), hohlraum modifications that should ultimately provide improved beam propagation and better laser coupling, and fielding of capsules with high-density carbon (HDC) ablators. A capsule just fielded with a HDC ablator and filled with DT gas generated a preliminary record level of neutrons at 1.6 × 1015, or 5 kJ of energy. Future plans include further improvements to fuel shape and hohlraum performance, fielding robust capsules at higher laser power and energy, and tuning the HDC capsule. A capsule with a nanocrystalline diamond (HDC) ablator on a DT ice layer will be fielded at NIF later this year.

  20. An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) Hospitals, Wildfires Highest Priority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adelaine, Sabrina A; Sato, Mizuki; Jin, Yufang; Godwin, Hilary

    2017-10-01

    Introduction Although many studies have delineated the variety and magnitude of impacts that climate change is likely to have on health, very little is known about how well hospitals are poised to respond to these impacts. Hypothesis/Problem The hypothesis is that most modern hospitals in urban areas in the United States need to augment their current disaster planning to include climate-related impacts. Using Los Angeles County (California USA) as a case study, historical data for emergency department (ED) visits and projections for extreme-heat events were used to determine how much climate change is likely to increase ED visits by mid-century for each hospital. In addition, historical data about the location of wildfires in Los Angeles County and projections for increased frequency of both wildfires and flooding related to sea-level rise were used to identify which area hospitals will have an increased risk of climate-related wildfires or flooding at mid-century. Only a small fraction of the total number of predicted ED visits at mid-century would likely to be due to climate change. By contrast, a significant portion of hospitals in Los Angeles County are in close proximity to very high fire hazard severity zones (VHFHSZs) and would be at greater risk to wildfire impacts as a result of climate change by mid-century. One hospital in Los Angeles County was anticipated to be at greater risk due to flooding by mid-century as a result of climate-related sea-level rise. This analysis suggests that several Los Angeles County hospitals should focus their climate-change-related planning on building resiliency to wildfires. Adelaine SA , Sato M , Jin Y , Godwin H . An assessment of climate change impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) hospitals, wildfires highest priority. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):556-562.

  1. Forecasting European Wildfires Today and in the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro Abellan, Maria; Porras Alegre, Ignasi; María Sole, Josep; Gálvez, Pedro; Bielski, Conrad; Nurmi, Pertti

    2017-04-01

    probabilistic output of the FWI for different regions in Europe. This work will improve the currently available information to various wildfire information users such as fire departments, the civil protection, local authorities, etc., where accurate and reliable information in extreme weather situations are vital for improving planning and risk management.

  2. Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra D Syphard

    Full Text Available Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide

  3. Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

    2013-01-01

    Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for

  4. Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D; Bar Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E

    2013-01-01

    Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for

  5. Pre-wildfire fuel reduction treatments result in more resilient forest structure a decade after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camille Stevens-Rumann; Kristen Shive; Peter Fule; Carolyn H. Sieg

    2013-01-01

    Increasing size and severity of wildfires have led to an interest in the effectiveness of forest fuels treatments on reducing fire severity and post-wildfire fuels. Our objective was to contrast stand structure and surface fuel loadings on treated and untreated sites within the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski Fire area. Data from 140 plots on seven paired treated-untreated sites...

  6. Airborne measurements and emission estimates of greenhouse gases and other trace constituents from the 2013 California Yosemite Rim wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, E. L.; Iraci, L. T.; Singh, H. B.; Tanaka, T.; Roby, M. C.; Hamill, P.; Clements, C. B.; Lareau, N.; Contezac, J.; Blake, D. R.; Simpson, I. J.; Wisthaler, A.; Mikoviny, T.; Diskin, G. S.; Beyersdorf, A. J.; Choi, Y.; Ryerson, T. B.; Jimenez, J. L.; Campuzano-Jost, P.; Loewenstein, M.; Gore, W.

    2016-02-01

    This paper presents airborne measurements of multiple atmospheric trace constituents including greenhouse gases (such as CO2, CH4, O3) and biomass burning tracers (such as CO, CH3CN) downwind of an exceptionally large wildfire. In summer 2013, the Rim wildfire, ignited just west of the Yosemite National Park, California, and burned over 250,000 acres of the forest during the 2-month period (17 August to 24 October) before it was extinguished. The Rim wildfire plume was intercepted by flights carried out by the NASA Ames Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) on 29 August and the NASA DC-8, as part of SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys), on 26 and 27 August during its intense, primary burning period. AJAX revisited the wildfire on 10 September when the conditions were increasingly smoldering, with slower growth. The more extensive payload of the DC-8 helped to bridge key measurements that were not available as part of AJAX (e. g. CO). Data analyses are presented in terms of emission ratios (ER), emission factors (EF) and combustion efficiency and are compared with previous wildfire studies. ERs were 8.0 ppb CH4 (ppm CO2)-1 on 26 August, 6.5 ppb CH4 (ppm CO2)-1 on 29 August and 18.3 ppb CH4 (ppm CO2)-1 on 10 September 2013. The increase in CH4 ER from 6.5 to 8.0 ppb CH4 (ppm CO2)-1 during the primary burning period to 18.3 ppb CH4 (ppm CO2)-1 during the fire's slower growth period likely indicates enhanced CH4 emissions from increased smoldering combustion relative to flaming combustion. Given the magnitude of the Rim wildfire, the impacts it had on regional air quality and the limited sampling of wildfire emissions in the western United States to date, this study provides a valuable dataset to support forestry and regional air quality management, including observations of ERs of a wide number of species from the Rim wildfire.

  7. Airborne Measurements and Emission Estimates of Greenhouse Gases and Other Trace Constituents From the 2013 California Yosemite Rim Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, E. L.; Iraci, L. T.; Singh, H. B.; Tanaka, T.; Roby, M. C.; Hamill, P.; Clements, C. B.; Lareau, N.; Contezac, J.; Blake, D. R.; hide

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents airborne measurements of multiple atmospheric trace constituents including greenhouse gases (such as CO2, CH4, O3) and biomass burning tracers (such as CO, CH3CN) downwind of an exceptionally large wildfire. In summer 2013, the Rim wildfire, ignited just west of the Yosemite National Park, California, and burned over 250,000 acres of the forest during the 2-month period (17 August to 24 October) before it was extinguished. The Rim wildfire plume was intercepted by flights carried out by the NASA Ames Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) on 29 August and the NASA DC-8, as part of SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys), on 26 and 27 August during its intense, primary burning period. AJAX revisited the wildfire on 10 September when the conditions were increasingly smoldering, with slower growth. The more extensive payload of the DC-8 helped to bridge key measurements that were not available as part of AJAX (e. g. CO). Data analyses are presented in terms of emission ratios (ER), emission factors (EF) and combustion efficiency and are compared with previous wildfire studies. ERs were 8.0 ppb CH4/(ppm CO2) on 26 August, 6.5 ppb CH4 (ppm CO2)1 on 29 August and 18.3 ppb CH4 (ppm CO2)1 on 10 September 2013. The increase in CH4 ER from 6.5 to 8.0 ppb CH4/(ppm CO2) during the primary burning period to 18.3 ppb CH4/(ppm CO2) during the fire's slower growth period likely indicates enhanced CH4 emissions from increased smoldering combustion relative to flaming combustion. Given the magnitude of the Rim wildfire, the impacts it had on regional air quality and the limited sampling of wildfire emissions in the western United States to date, this study provides a valuable dataset to support forestry and regional air quality management, including observations of ERs of a wide number of species from the Rim wildfire.

  8. What are the most fire-dangerous atmospheric circulations in the Eastern-Mediterranean? Analysis of the synoptic wildfire climatology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire management is closely linked to robust forecasts of changes in wildfire risk related to meteorological conditions. This link can be bridged either through fire weather indices or through statistical techniques that directly relate atmospheric patterns to wildfire activity. In the present work the COST-733 classification schemes are applied in order to link wildfires in Greece with synoptic circulation patterns. The analysis reveals that the majority of wildfire events can be explained by a small number of specific synoptic circulations, hence reflecting the synoptic climatology of wildfires. All 8 classification schemes used, prove that the most fire-dangerous conditions in Greece are characterized by a combination of high atmospheric pressure systems located N to NW of Greece, coupled with lower pressures located over the very Eastern part of the Mediterranean, an atmospheric pressure pattern closely linked to the local Etesian winds over the Aegean Sea. During these events, the atmospheric pressure has been reported to be anomalously high, while anomalously low 500hPa geopotential heights and negative total water column anomalies were also observed. Among the various classification schemes used, the 2 Principal Component Analysis-based classifications, namely the PCT and the PXE, as well as the Leader Algorithm classification LND proved to be the best options, in terms of being capable to isolate the vast amount of fire events in a small number of classes with increased frequency of occurrence. It is estimated that these 3 schemes, in combination with medium-range to seasonal climate forecasts, could be used by wildfire risk managers to provide increased wildfire prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Agencies, educators, communities and wildfire: partnerships to enhance environmental education for youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martha C. Monroe; Heidi L. Ballard; Annie Oxarart; Victoria E. Sturtevant; Pamela J. Jakes; Emily R. Evans

    2015-01-01

    We studied seven programs that engage youth from 10 to 18 years old in wildfire risk reduction in their communities in the United States through in-depth interviews to examine the nature and role of community-school partnerships in resource-focused environmental education. While the programs use a variety of strategies, from Scout badge to summer school, they exhibit...

  10. Science You Can Use Bulletin: Wildfire triage: Targeting mitigation based on social, economic, and ecological values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl Malcolm; Matthew Thompson; Dave Calkin; Mark Finney; Alan Ager

    2012-01-01

    Evaluating the risks of wildfire relative to the valuable resources found in any managed landscape requires an interdisciplinary approach. Researchers at the Rocky Mountain Research Station and Western Wildland Threat Assessment Center developed such a process, using a combination of techniques rooted in fire modeling and ecology, economics, decision sciences, and the...

  11. Getting ahead of the wildfire problem: Quantifying and mapping management challenges and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher D. O' Connor; Matthew P. Thompson; Francisco Rodriguez y Silva

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire is a global phenomenon that plays a vital role in regulating and maintaining many natural and human-influenced ecosystems but that also poses considerable risks to human populations and infrastructure. Fire managers are charged with balancing the short-term protection of human assets sensitive to fire exposure against the potential long-term benefits...

  12. A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Jeffrey D. Kaiden; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

    2013-01-01

    Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with...

  13. Community wildfire protection planning: is the Healthy Forests Restoration Act's vagueness genius?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamela J. Jakes; Kristen C. Nelson; Sherry A. Enzler; Sam Burns; Antony S. Cheng; Victoria Sturtevant; Daniel R. Williams; Alexander Bujak; Rachel F. Brummel; Stephanie Grayzeck-Souter; Emily. Staychock

    2011-01-01

    The Healthy Forests Restoration Act of 2003 (HFRA) encourages communities to develop community wildfire protection plans (CWPPs) to reduce their wildland fire risk and promote healthier forested ecosystems. Communities who have developed CWPPs have done so using many different processes, resulting in plans with varied form and content. We analysed data from 13 case-...

  14. The effect of climate anomalies and human ignition factor on wildfires in Russian boreal forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achard, Frédéric; Eva, Hugh D; Mollicone, Danilo; Beuchle, René

    2008-07-12

    Over the last few years anomalies in temperature and precipitation in northern Russia have been regarded as manifestations of climate change. During the same period exceptional forest fire seasons have been reported, prompting many authors to suggest that these in turn are due to climate change. In this paper, we examine the number and areal extent of forest fires across boreal Russia for the period 2002-2005 within two forest categories: 'intact forests' and 'non-intact forests'. Results show a far lower density of fire events in intact forests (5-14 times less) and that those events tend to be in the first 10 km buffer zone inside intact forest areas. Results also show that, during exceptional climatic years (2002 and 2003), fire event density is twice that found during normal years (2004 and 2005) and average areal extent of fire events (burned area) in intact forests is 2.5 times larger than normal. These results suggest that a majority of the fire events in boreal Russia are of human origin and a maximum of one-third of their impact (areal extension) can be attributed to climate anomalies alone, the rest being due to the combined effect of human disturbances and climate anomalies.

  15. On the Piloted Ignition of Solid Fuels in Spacecraft Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fereres-Rapoport, Sonya M.

    The effect of environmental variables on the ignition of solid combustible materials is explored through a combination of experimental, analytical and numerical analyses. This research stems from NASA's design requirement to reduce the cabin internal pressure and increase the oxygen concentration in human space vehicles and in future lunar habitats of the Constellation Program. These new environmental conditions may result in an increased fire risk of combustible solid materials due to higher flame temperatures (attributed to enhanced oxygen) and reduced convective heat losses from heated surfaces (attributed to reduced pressure). In particular, the influence of low pressure on ignition is emphasized here because little is known concerning this topic. A series of experiments conducted in a laboratory-scale combustion wind tunnel with externally irradiated samples of PMMA (polymethyl-methacrylate) showed that both the ignition delay time and the fuel mass flux at ignition decrease when the ambient pressure is lowered. An analytical model is used to identify the governing processes that lead to these results and then a numerical model is applied to quantify the influence of ambient variables (particularly pressure) on the piloted ignition of PMMA. The numerical model verifies the phenomenological explanations inferred from the experimental findings and the qualitative analytical results, and correctly simulates the thermo-physical mechanisms leading to ignition. It is concluded that reduced pressure environments result in: (1) smaller convective heat losses from the heated material to the surroundings due to a thickening of the thermal boundary layer next to the solid fuel surface, allowing for the material to heat more rapidly and pyrolyze faster; and, (2) a lower mass flux of volatiles required to reach the lean flammability limit of the gases at the pilot, leading to earlier ignition, due mainly to an enlarged boundary layer and a thicker fuel species profile

  16. Oxyhydrogen ignition and flame propagation under cryogenic temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayashi, A.K.; Fujiwara, T.

    1983-03-01

    One dimensional numerical calculations were performed for ignition and flame propagation of oxyhydrogen mixtures under cryogenic conditions. Three aspects on ignition problems were studied an effect of ambient temperature on the minimum ignition energy, an effect of initial pressure on the minimum ignition energy per mass, and an effect of energy deposit rate on the minimum ignition energy.

  17. Oxyhydrogen Ignition and Flame Propagation Under Cryogenic Temperatures

    OpenAIRE

    HAYASHI, A. Koichi; Fujiwara, T.

    1983-01-01

    One-dimensional numerical calculations were performed for ignition and flame propagation of oxyhydrogen mixtures under cryogenic conditions. Three aspects on ignition problems were studied; 1) an effect of ambient temperature on the minimum ignition energy, 2) an effect of initial pressure on the minimum ignition energy per mass, and 3) an effect of energy deposit rate on the minimum ignition energy.

  18. A sustained-arc ignition system for internal combustion engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birchenough, A. G.

    1977-01-01

    A sustained-arc ignition system was developed for internal combustion engines. It produces a very-long-duration ignition pulse with an energy in the order of 100 millijoules. The ignition pulse waveform can be controlled to predetermined actual ignition requirements. The design of the sustained-arc ignition system is presented in the report.

  19. Indirect drive ignition at the National Ignition Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meezan, N. B.; Edwards, M. J.; Hurricane, O. A.; Patel, P. K.; Callahan, D. A.; Hsing, W. W.; Town, R. P. J.; Albert, F.; Amendt, P. A.; Berzak Hopkins, L. F.; Bradley, D. K.; Casey, D. T.; Clark, D. S.; Dewald, E. L.; Dittrich, T. R.; Divol, L.; Döppner, T.; Field, J. E.; Haan, S. W.; Hall, G. N.; Hammel, B. A.; Hinkel, D. E.; Ho, D. D.; Hohenberger, M.; Izumi, N.; Jones, O. S.; Khan, S. F.; Kline, J. L.; Kritcher, A. L.; Landen, O. L.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; MacKinnon, A. J.; MacPhee, A. G.; Masse, L.; Milovich, J. L.; Nikroo, A.; Pak, A.; Park, H.-S.; Peterson, J. L.; Robey, H. F.; Ross, J. S.; Salmonson, J. D.; Smalyuk, V. A.; Spears, B. K.; Stadermann, M.; Suter, L. J.; Thomas, C. A.; Tommasini, R.; Turnbull, D. P.; Weber, C. R.

    2017-01-01

    This paper reviews scientific results from the pursuit of indirect drive ignition on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and describes the program’s forward looking research directions. In indirect drive on the NIF, laser beams heat an x-ray enclosure called a hohlraum that surrounds a spherical pellet. X-ray radiation ablates the surface of the pellet, imploding a thin shell of deuterium/tritium (DT) that must accelerate to high velocity (v  >  350 km s-1) and compress by a factor of several thousand. Since 2009, substantial progress has been made in understanding the major challenges to ignition: Rayleigh Taylor (RT) instability seeded by target imperfections; and low-mode asymmetries in the hohlraum x-ray drive, exacerbated by laser-plasma instabilities (LPI). Requirements on velocity, symmetry, and compression have been demonstrated separately on the NIF but have not been achieved simultaneously. We now know that the RT instability, seeded mainly by the capsule support tent, severely degraded DT implosions from 2009-2012. Experiments using a ‘high-foot’ drive with demonstrated lower RT growth improved the thermonuclear yield by a factor of 10, resulting in yield amplification due to alpha particle heating by more than a factor of 2. However, large time dependent drive asymmetry in the LPI-dominated hohlraums remains unchanged, preventing further improvements. High fidelity 3D hydrodynamic calculations explain these results. Future research efforts focus on improved capsule mounting techniques and on hohlraums with little LPI and controllable symmetry. In parallel, we are pursuing improvements to the basic physics models used in the design codes through focused physics experiments.

  20. Wildfires Rage in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    Large plumes of smoke rising from devastating wildfires burning near Los Angeles and San Diego on Sunday, October 26, 2003, are highlighted in this set of images from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). These images include a natural color view from MISR's nadir camera (left) and an automated stereo height retrieval (right). The tops of the smoke plumes range in altitude from 500 - 3000 meters, and the stereo retrieval clearly differentiates the smoke from patches of high-altitude cirrus. Plumes are apparent from fires burning near the California-Mexico border, San Diego, Camp Pendleton, the foothills of the San Bernardino Mountains, and in and around Simi Valley. The majority of the smoke is coming from the fires near San Diego and the San Bernardino Mountains.The Multiangle Imaging Spectro Radiometer observes the daylit Earth continuously and every 9 days views the entire globe between 82o north and 82o south latitude. These data products were generated from a portion of the imagery acquired during Terra orbit 20510. The panels cover an area of 329 kilometers x 543 kilometers, and utilize data from blocks 62 to 66 within World Reference System-2 path 40.MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology.

  1. Local Ignition in Carbon-Oxygen White Dwarfs. I. One-Zone Ignition and Spherical Shock Ignition of Detonations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dursi, L. Jonathan; Timmes, F. X.

    2006-04-01

    The details of ignition of Type Ia supernovae remain fuzzy, despite the importance of this input for any large-scale model of the final explosion. Here, we begin a process of understanding the ignition of these hot spots by examining the burning of one zone of material, and then we investigate the ignition of a detonation due to rapid heating at single point. We numerically measure the ignition delay time for onset of burning in mixtures of degenerate material and provide fitting formulae for conditions of relevance in the Type Ia problem. Using the neon abundance as a proxy for the white dwarf progenitor's metallicity, we then find that ignition times can decrease by ~20% with the addition of even 5% of neon by mass. When temperature fluctuations that successfully kindle a region are very rare, such a reduction in ignition time can increase the probability of ignition by orders of magnitude. If the neon comes largely at the expense of carbon, a similar decrease in the ignition time can occur. We then consider the ignition of a detonation by an explosive energy input in one localized zone, for example, a Sedov blast wave leading to a shock-ignited detonation. Building on previous work on curved detonations, we confirm that surprisingly large inputs of energy are required to successfully launch a detonation, leading to required match heads of ~4500 detonation thicknesses-tens of centimeters to hundreds of meters-which is orders of magnitude larger than naive considerations might suggest. This is a very difficult constraint to meet for some pictures of a deflagration-to-detonation transition, such as a Zel'dovich gradient mechanism ignition in the distributed burning regime.

  2. Rehabilitation and Cheatgrass Suppression Following Great Basin Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    The occurrence of wildfires in Great Basin environments has become an annual event. The introduction and subsequent invasion of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) plays a very large role in the frequency and size of these wildfires. With each passing wildfire season, more and more habitats are converted...

  3. Living with wildfire in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    James R. Meldrum; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia Colter Falk; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Travis Warziniack; Patricia. Champ

    2013-01-01

    Over the past 50 years, Colorado has experienced an increase in the number and size of wildfires on its public and private lands. Nationwide, expenditures on wildfire suppression have increased for decades and now are measured in the billions of tax dollars. Current trends in climate changes, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and expansion of the...

  4. Introduction to this special issue on statistics for wildfire processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcia Gumpertz

    2009-01-01

    This special issue on statistics for wildfire processes brings together foresters, wildfire ecologists, statisticians, mathematicians, and economists. All of these disciplines bring different interests, approaches and expertise to the modeling of wildfire processes. It is not necessarily easy, however, to communicate across disciplines or follow the developments in a...

  5. A review of state and local regulation for wildfire mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry K. Haines; Cheryl R. Renner; Margaret A. Reams

    2008-01-01

    Wildfire may result from natural processes or as the result of human actions (Ffolliott 1988, Mees 1990). As a natural phenomenon, it is important in sustaining forest health in fire-dependent ecosystems. While some wildfire may be ecologically beneficial, it poses a threat to residential communities located within or adjacent to the forest. Wildfire is considered a...

  6. Wildfire incidence and management in the forest transition zone of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A survey was conducted in eight communities in the forest transition zone to assess the perceptions of farmers on farming-related wildfire incidences, specific activities in farming associated with incidence of wildfires and coping measures being used by farmers to manage wildfires. Farmers in the studied settlements hold ...

  7. The importance of considering external influences during presuppression wildfire planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc R. Wiitala; Andrew E. Wilson

    2008-01-01

    Few administrative units involved in wildland fire protection are islands unto themselves when it comes to wildfire activity and suppression. If not directly affected by the wildfire workload of their neighbors, they are affected by the availability of nationally shared resources impacted by wildfire activity at the regional and national scale. These external...

  8. Estimating the avoided fuel-reatment costs of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey H. Donovan; Thomas C. Brown

    2008-01-01

    Although the importance of wildfire to fire-adapted ecosystems is widely recognized, wildfire management has historically placed less emphasis on the beneficial effects of wildfire. We estimate the avoided fuel treatment cost for 10 ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) stands on the Umatilla National Forest in the Pacific Northwest. Results show that...

  9. Recent advances towards an integrated assessment of wildfire effects in forest plantations in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keizer, Jan Jacob; Abrantes, Nelson; Nunes, João Pedro; Caetano, Ana; Campos, Isabel; Faria, Silvia; Gonzaléz-Pelayo, Oscar; Hoogerwerf, Annelou; Malvar, Maruxa; Martins, Martinho; Methorst, Michael; Oliveira, Bruna; Prats, Sergio; Puga, João; Ré, Ana; Silva, Flávio; Serpa, Dalila; Varela, Marifé; Verheijen, Frank; Vieira, Diana

    2017-04-01

    Wildfires have been a common phenomenon during the warm and dry summers in Portugal over the past decades, having affected, on average, some 100.000 ha per year and, in extremis, roughly 450.000 ha in 2005. Existing forecasts do not suggest major improvements in the next few decades, due to likely future climate conditions that are to be even more propitious to fire ignition and spreading and, arguably, the nature of the underlying causes that are deeply-rooted in Portugal's present-day society as well as in its rural and forest policies. Since the dramatic wildfire summers of 2003 and 2005, the earth surface processes (esp) team has been working towards its ultimate goal of a model-based tool in support of post-fire land management which would allow identifying and mapping areas with high erosion risk after fire and post-fire land management operations and would allow predicting the effectiveness of emergency stabilization measures to reduce this risk. Although this tool is still in its infancy, in recent years the esp team has made some progress with modelling post-fire runoff and erosion, and its reduction by mulching with forest logging residues, with a special focus on soil water repellency in the adaptation of existing models to recently burned conditions (Vieira et al., 2014; Nunes et al., 2016; Van Eck et al., 2016). This modelling work will be addressed in detail by another presentation at this EGU conference (Nunes et al., 2017). The esp team does, however, dispose of a wealth of field data to further its modelling efforts, not just at the plot to field scale but also at the scale of small experimental catchments (typically less than 1 km2), not just for single fires but also for recurrent fires, not just for "doing nothing" and typical post-fire forestry operations (logging, wood extraction, bench terracing) but also for various soil conservation measures (hydro-mulching, forest logging residues mulching, shrub barriers), and not just for runoff and

  10. Differential respiratory health effects from the 2008 northern California wildfires: A spatiotemporal approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Colleen E; Jerrett, Michael; Tager, Ira B; Petersen, Maya L; Mann, Jennifer K; Balmes, John R

    2016-10-01

    We investigated health effects associated with fine particulate matter during a long-lived, large wildfire complex in northern California in the summer of 2008. We estimated exposure to PM2.5 for each day using an exposure prediction model created through data-adaptive machine learning methods from a large set of spatiotemporal data sets. We then used Poisson generalized estimating equations to calculate the effect of exposure to 24-hour average PM2.5 on cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations and ED visits. We further assessed effect modification by sex, age, and area-level socioeconomic status (SES). We observed a linear increase in risk for asthma hospitalizations (RR=1.07, 95% CI=(1.05, 1.10) per 5µg/m(3) increase) and asthma ED visits (RR=1.06, 95% CI=(1.05, 1.07) per 5µg/m(3) increase) with increasing PM2.5 during the wildfires. ED visits for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were associated with PM2.5 during the fires (RR=1.02 (95% CI=(1.01, 1.04) per 5µg/m(3) increase) and this effect was significantly different from that found before the fires but not after. We did not find consistent effects of wildfire smoke on other health outcomes. The effect of PM2.5 during the wildfire period was more pronounced in women compared to men and in adults, ages 20-64, compared to children and adults 65 or older. We also found some effect modification by area-level median income for respiratory ED visits during the wildfires, with the highest effects observed in the ZIP codes with the lowest median income. Using a novel spatiotemporal exposure model, we found some evidence of differential susceptibility to exposure to wildfire smoke. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Vegetation structure and fire weather influence variation in burn severity and fuel consumption during peatland wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, G. M.; Domènech, R.; Gray, A.; Johnson, P. C. D.

    2016-01-01

    Temperate peatland wildfires are of significant environmental concern but information on their environmental effects is lacking. We assessed variation in burn severity and fuel consumption within and between wildfires that burnt British moorlands in 2011 and 2012. We adapted the composite burn index (pCBI) to provide semi-quantitative estimates of burn severity. Pre- and post-fire surface (shrubs and graminoids) and ground (litter, moss, duff) fuel loads associated with large wildfires were assessed using destructive sampling and analysed using a generalised linear mixed model (GLMM). Consumption during wildfires was compared with published estimates of consumption during prescribed burns. Burn severity and fuel consumption were related to fire weather, assessed using the Canadian Fire Weather Index System (FWI System), and pre-fire vegetation type. pCBI varied 1.6 fold between, and up to 1.7 fold within, wildfires. pCBI was higher where moisture codes of the FWI System indicated drier fuels. Spatial variation in pre- and post-fire fuel load accounted for a substantial proportion of the variance in fuel loads. Average surface fuel consumption was a linear function of pre-fire fuel load. Average ground fuel combustion completeness could be predicted by the Buildup Index. Carbon release ranged between 0.36 and 1.00 kg C m-2. The flammability of ground fuel layers may explain the higher C release-rates seen for wildfires in comparison to prescribed burns. Drier moorland community types appear to be at greater risk of severe burns than blanket-bog communities.

  12. Public Health Impact of Wildfire Emissions: Up-date on the Wildfire Smoke Guide, Public Health Information and Communications Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA Tools and Resources Webinar: Public Health Impact of Wildfire Smoke Emissions Specific strategies to reduce smoke exposure and the Smoke Sense App As the start of the summer wildfire season approaches, public officials, communities and individuals need up-to-date wildfire smo...

  13. Assessing wildfire exposure in the Wildland-Urban Interface area of the mountains of central Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argañaraz, J P; Radeloff, V C; Bar-Massada, A; Gavier-Pizarro, G I; Scavuzzo, C M; Bellis, L M

    2017-07-01

    Wildfires are a major threat to people and property in Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) communities worldwide, but while the patterns of the WUI in North America, Europe and Oceania have been studied before, this is not the case in Latin America. Our goals were to a) map WUI areas in central Argentina, and b) assess wildfire exposure for WUI communities in relation to historic fires, with special emphasis on large fires and estimated burn probability based on an empirical model. We mapped the WUI in the mountains of central Argentina (810,000 ha), after digitizing the location of 276,700 buildings and deriving vegetation maps from satellite imagery. The areas where houses and wildland vegetation intermingle were classified as Intermix WUI (housing density > 6.17 hu/km2 and wildland vegetation cover > 50%), and the areas where wildland vegetation abuts settlements were classified as Interface WUI (housing density > 6.17 hu/km2, wildland vegetation cover wildfires and most of the buildings located in areas of higher burn probability. Our findings can help focus fire management activities in areas of higher risk, and ultimately provide support for landscape management and planning aimed at reducing wildfire risk in WUI communities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Multipoint ignition by flame dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rychter, T.J.

    1989-03-01

    In conventional piston engines exothermic chemical reactions occur in flames that are tightly localized in space. This is a cause of many problems encountered in engine combustion, such as knock and cycle-to-cycle variability. An alternative to the classical combustion process based on the propagation of the flame can be the initiation of exothermic reactions by a set of ignition centers causing multipoint initiation of combustion. This can be achieved by spreading the chemically active hot gases through the combustion chamber. In practice this has been done by combustion-product recirculation or by the use of jets. Numerous investigations have been reported on the combustion system in which a jet of chemically active hot gases is dynamically introduced into the main combustion chamber causing multipoint ignition of a premixed charge. The jet has been generated either by burning a rich mixture in a large prechamber, in a small torch cell, or by the discharge of a relatively large amount of electrical energy in a small cavity to produce a jet of plasma. A way to reduce significantly the energy to generate the plasma jet has been proposed and has proved to be especially advantageous fur burning mixtures near their flammability limits.

  15. Plasma torch igniter for scramjets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Timothy C.; O'Brien, Walter F.; Northam, G. Burton; Eggers, James M.

    1989-01-01

    A small, uncooled plasma torch was developed and used in combination with an injector designed to study ignition and flameholding in hydrogen-fueled supersonic flows. The plasma torch was operated on mixtures of hydrogen and argon with total flows of 10 to 70 scfh. The fuel injector design consisted of five small upstream pilot fuel injectors, a rearward facing step for recirculation, and three main fuel injectors downstream of the step. The plasma torch was located in the recirculation region, and all injection was perpendicular to the Mach 2 stream. Both semi-freejet and ducted tests were conducted. The experimental results indicate that a low power plasma torch operating on a 1:1 volumetric mixture of hydrogen and argon and located in the recirculation zone fueled by the upstream pilot fuel injectors is a good igniter for flow conditions simulating a flight Mach number of 3.7. The total temperature required to autoignite the hydrogen fuel for this injector geometry was 2640 R. The injector configuration was shown to be a good flameholder over a wide range of total temperature. Spectroscopic measurements were used to verify the presence of air total temperatures below 1610 R.

  16. Numerical simulation of spark ignition including ionization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiele, M; Selle, S; Riedel, U; Warnatz, J; Maas, U

    2000-01-01

    A detailed understanding of the processes associated Midi spark ignition, as a first step during combustion, is of great importance fur clean operation of spark ignition engines. In the past 10 years. a growing concern for environmental protection, including low emission of pollutants, has increased

  17. Piezoelectric Ignition of Nanocomposite Energetic Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Sensitivity, Piezoelectric Crystals, Nanoparticles, Thermites Eric Collins, Michelle L Pantoya, Andreas Neuber, Michael Daniels, Daniel Prentice...use of PZT as an alternative ignition source. Key Words: Aluminum, Ignition, Combustion, Piezocrystal, Nanoparticles, Thermites ... thermites ,” Combustion and Flame, vol. 138, no. 4, pp. 373–383, Sep. 2004. [13] T. Bazyn, N. Glumac, H. Krier, T. S. Ward, M. Schoenitz, and E. L

  18. Advanced ignition and propulsion technology program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenborg, R.; Early, J.; Lester, C.

    1998-11-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Reliable engine re-ignition plays a crucial role in enabling commercial and military aircraft to fly safely at high altitudes. This project addressed research elements critical to the optimization of laser-based igniter. The effort initially involved a collaborative research and development agreement with B.F. Goodrich Aerospace and Laser Fare, Inc. The work involved integrated experiments with theoretical modeling to provide a basic understanding of the chemistry and physics controlling the laser-induced ignition of fuel aerosols produced by turbojet engine injectors. In addition, the authors defined advanced laser igniter configurations that minimize laser packaging size, weight, complexity and power consumption. These innovative ignition concepts were shown to reliably ignite jet fuel aerosols over a broad range of fuel/air mixture and a t fuel temperatures as low as -40 deg F. The demonstrated fuel ignition performance was highly superior to that obtained by the state-of-the-art, laser-spark ignition method utilizing comparable laser energy. The authors also developed a laser-based method that effectively removes optically opaque deposits of fuel hydrocarbon combustion residues from laser window surfaces. Seven patents have been either issued or are pending that resulted from the technology developments within this project.

  19. Physical characteristics of welding arc ignition process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Linan; Song, Yonglun; Xiao, Tianjiao; Ran, Guowei

    2012-07-01

    The existing research of welding arc mainly focuses on the stable combustion state and the research on the mechanism of welding arc ignition process is quite lack. The tungsten inert gas(TIG) touch arc ignition process is observed via a high speed camera and the high time resolution spectral diagnosis system. The changing phenomenon of main ionized element provided the electrons in the arc ignition is found. The metallic element is the main contributor to provide the electrons at the beginning of the discharging, and then the excitated shielding gas element replaces the function of the metallic element. The electron density during the period of the arc ignition is calculated by the Stark-broadened lines of Hα. Through the discussion with the repeatability in relaxation phenomenon, the statistical regularity in the arc ignition process is analyzed. The similar rules as above are observed through the comparison with the laser-assisted arc ignition experiments and the metal inert gas(MIG) arc ignition experiments. This research is helpful to further understanding on the generation mechanism of welding arc ignition and also has a certain academic and practical significance on enriching the welding physical theoretical foundation and improving the precise monitoring on automatic arc welding process.

  20. Modelling piloted ignition of wood and plastics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blijderveen, M. van; Bramer, E.A.; Brem, G.

    2012-01-01

    To gain insight in the startup of an incinerator, this article deals with piloted ignition. A newly developed model is described to predict the piloted ignition times of wood, PMMA and PVC. The model is based on the lower flammability limit and the adiabatic flame temperature at this limit. The

  1. LANDFIRE 2010 - updated data to support wildfire and ecological management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Kurtis J.; Connot, Joel A.; Peterson, Birgit E.; Picotte, Joshua J.

    2013-01-01

    Wildfire is a global phenomenon that affects human populations and ecosystems. Wildfire effects occur at local to global scales impacting many people in different ways (Figure 1). Ecological concerns due to land use, fragmentation, and climate change impact natural resource use, allocation, and conservation. Access to consistent and current environmental data is a constant challenge, yet necessary for understanding the complexities of wildfire and ecological management. Data products and tools from the LANDFIRE Program help decision-makers to clarify problems and identify possible solutions when managing fires and natural resources. LANDFIRE supports the reduction of risk from wildfire to human lives and property, monitoring of fire danger, prediction of fire behavior on active incidents, and assessment of fire severity and impacts on natural systems [1] [2] [3]. LANDFIRE products are unique in that they are nationally consistent and provide the only complete geospatial dataset describing vegetation and wildland fuel information for the entire U.S. As such, LANDFIRE data are useful for many ecological applications [3]. For example, LANDFIRE data were recently integrated into a decision-support system for resource management and conservation decision-making along the Appalachian Trail. LANDFIRE is a joint effort between the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Wildland Fire, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Fire & Aviation Management, and The Nature Conservancy. To date, seven versions of LANDFIRE data have been released, with each successive version improving the quality of the data, adding additional features, and/or updating the time period represented by the data. The latest version, LANDFIRE 2010 (LF 2010), released mid-2013, represents circa 2010 landscape conditions and succeeds LANDFIRE 2008 (LF 2008), which represented circa 2008 landscape conditions. LF 2010 used many of the same processes developed for the LF 2008 effort [3]. Ongoing

  2. What are the socio-economic conditions of local areas affected by wildfires in Portugal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Sandra; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, José Miguel

    2017-04-01

    The socio-economic context of wildfire distribution is paramount to understand the conditions that influence the vulnerability and resilience levels of different communities exposed to wildfire risk. This research had the main purpose to assess the social and economic dimensions of fire occurrence in Portugal, the country most affected by wildfires in Europe. Differences in fire incidence levels, obtained from number of fire events and burned areas recorded between 2007 and 2014, were examined in relation to socio-economic data from the latest Census at local level, describing conditions regarding exposure levels, sociodemographic patterns, infrastructures, agricultural activities and labour conditions for the civil parishes of mainland Portugal. To identify differences between parishes, two groups were retrieved for fire events and burned areas separately, based on quantiles and keeping only the highest and lowest 20% of wildfire incidence data. The relationships between the wildfire incidence groups and the socio-economic variables were assessed with a stepwise approach based on classification trees. First, irrelevant variables for identifying differences between the groups were removed by an interactive process based on misclassification rates. The second step used random Forest analysis with the selected variables to compute the strength of association and rank variables by importance. The third step applied cluster analysis to determine if the clusters created only with the selected independent variables were equivalent to the initial groups. Results showed that the social and economic conditions of civil parishes vary with wildfire incidence levels. Population density, proportion of foreigners, overcrowded housing conditions, proportion of houses occupied seasonally, and agricultural variables, such as pastures and livestock density, appeared as relevant to distinguish the two fire incidence groups, although with differences in their level of importance and

  3. Theoretical study on ignition compensating temperature sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingfang Liu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Temperature sensitivity of the propellant has significant influence on the interior ballistic performance of guns. Many physical and chemical approaches are employed to decrease this temperature sensitivity of the propellant. In this article, it is proposed that the temperature sensitivity of the propellant is changed by altering the factors required to ignition. A one-dimensional two-phase flow interior ballistic model is established to analyze the relation between ignition factors and temperature sensitivity. The simulation results show that the propellant temperature sensitivity is changed by altering the ignition factors. That is, the interior ballistic performance is affected by altering the size of fire hole, breaking liner pressure, and ignition location. Based on the simulation results, the temperature sensitivity can be controlled by matching of charges and intelligent control ignition system.

  4. Understanding Biomass Ignition in Power Plant Mills

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwarzer, Lars; Jensen, Peter Arendt; Glarborg, Peter

    2017-01-01

    % oxygen with those under inert atmosphere revealed two distinct pathways, pyrolysis and exothermic heterogeneous oxidation. At low temperatures and sufficient oxygen availability, heterogeneous oxidation of the solid seems to be favored over pyrolysis for wood, but not for coal. Current ignition models do......Converting existing coal fired power plants to biomass is a readily implemented strategy to increase the share of renewable energy. However, changing from one fuel to another is not straightforward: Experience shows that wood pellets ignite more readily than coal in power plant mills or storages....... This is not very well explained by apply-ing conventional thermal ignition theory. An experimental study at lab scale, using pinewood as an example fuel, was conducted to examine self-heating and self-ignition. Supplemental experiments were performed with bituminous coal. Instead of characterizing ignition...

  5. A novel three-axis cylindrical hohlraum designed for inertial confinement fusion ignition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Longyu; Li, Hang; Jing, Longfei; Lin, Zhiwei; Zhang, Lu; Li, Liling; Ding, Yongkun; Jiang, Shaoen; Liu, Jie; Zheng, Jian

    2016-10-05

    A novel ignition hohlraum for indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion is proposed, which is named three-axis cylindrical hohlraum (TACH). TACH is a kind of 6 laser entrance holes (LEHs) hohlraum, which is orthogonally jointed of three cylindrical hohlraums. Laser beams are injected through every entrance hole with the same incident angle of 55°. A view-factor simulation result shows that the time-varying drive asymmetry of TACH is less than 1.0% in the whole drive pulse period without any supplementary technology. Coupling efficiency of TACH is close to that of 6 LEHs spherical hohlraum with corresponding size. Its plasma-filling time is close to that of typical cylindrical ignition hohlraum. Its laser plasma interaction has as low backscattering as the outer cone of the cylindrical ignition hohlraum. Therefore, TACH combines most advantages of various hohlraums and has little predictable risk, providing an important competitive candidate for ignition hohlraum.

  6. Measuring the consequences of wildfires in a Bayesian network with vulnerability and exposure indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papakosta, Panagiota; Botzler, Sebastian; Krug, Kai; Straub, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    Mediterranean climate type areas have always been experiencing fire events. However, population growth and expansion of urban centers into wildland areas during the 20th century (expansion of wildland-urban interface) has increased the threat to humans and their activities. Life and property losses, damage on infrastructure and crops, and forest degradation are some of the damages caused by wildfires. Although fires repeatedly occur along the Mediterranean basin, not all areas have experienced severe consequences. The extent of damage by wildfires is influenced by several factors, such as population density, vegetation type, topography, weather conditions and social preparedness [1]. Wildfire consequence estimation by means of vulnerability and exposure indicators is an essential part of wildfire risk analysis. Vulnerability indicators express the conditions that increase the susceptibility of a site to the impact of wildfires and exposure indicators describe the elements at risk [2],[3]. Appropriate indicators to measure wildfire vulnerability and exposure can vary with scale and site. The consequences can be classified into economic, social, environmental and safety, and they can be tangible (human life losses, buildings damaged) or intangible (damage of cultural heritage site). As a consequence, a variety of approaches exist and there is a lack of generalized unified easy-to-implement methodologies. In this study we present a methodology for measuring consequences of wildfires in a Mediterranean area in the mesoscale (1 km² spatial resolution). Vulnerability and exposure indicators covering all consequence levels are identified and their interrelations are stressed. Variables such as building materials, roofing type, and average building values are included in the economic vulnerability level. Safety exposure is expressed by population density, demographic structure, street density and distance to closest fire station. Environmental vulnerability of protected

  7. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolly, W Matt; Cochrane, Mark A; Freeborn, Patrick H; Holden, Zachary A; Brown, Timothy J; Williamson, Grant J; Bowman, David M J S

    2015-07-14

    Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km(2) (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km(2) (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.

  8. Assessing Wildland Fire Risk Transmission to Communities in Northern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fermín J. Alcasena

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain. Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306 in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert judgement. Fire exposure was estimated by simulating 50,000 fire events that replicated extreme (97th percentile historical fire weather conditions. Spatial ignition probabilities were used in the simulations to account for non-random ignitions, and were estimated from a fire occurrence model generated with an artificial neural network. The results showed that ignition probability explained most of spatial variation in risk, with economic value of structures having only a minor effect. Average expected loss to residential houses from a single wildfire event in the study area was 7955€, and ranged from a low of 740 to the high of 28,725€. Major fire flow-paths were analyzed to understand fire transmission from surrounding municipalities and showed that incoming fires from the north exhibited strong pathways into the core of the study area, and fires spreading from the south had the highest likelihood of reaching target residential structures from the longest distances (>5 km. Community firesheds revealed the scale of risk to communities and extended well beyond administrative boundaries. The results provided a quantitative risk assessment that can be used by insurance companies and local landscape managers to prioritize and allocate investments to treat wildland fuels and identify clusters of high expected loss within communities. The methodological framework can be extended to other fire-prone southern European Union countries where communities are threatened by large wildland fires.

  9. Modeling Evacuate versus Shelter-in-Place Decisions in Wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A. Drews

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Improving community resiliency to wildfire is a challenging problem in the face of ongoing development in fire-prone regions. Evacuation and shelter-in-place are the primary options for reducing wildfire casualties, but it can be difficult to determine which option offers the most protection in urgent scenarios. Although guidelines and policies have been proposed to inform this decision, a formal approach to evaluating protective options would help advance protective-action theory. We present an optimization model based on the premise that protecting a community can be viewed as assigning threatened households to one of three actions: evacuation, shelter-in-refuge, or shelter-in-home. While evacuation generally offers the highest level of life protection, it can place residents at greater risk when little time is available. This leads to complex trade-offs involving expected fire intensity, available time, and the quality and accessibility of in-place shelter. An application of the model is presented to illustrate a range of issues that can arise across scenarios.

  10. Big sagebrush seed bank densities following wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Big sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) is a critical shrub to many wildlife species including sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pygmy rabbit (Brachylagus idahoensis). Big sagebrush is killed by wildfires and big sagebrush seed is generally short-lived and do not s...

  11. Wildfire Health and Economic Impacts Case Study###

    Science.gov (United States)

    Since 2008 eastern North Carolina experienced 6 major wildfires, far exceeding the historic 50 year expected rate of return. Initiated by the lighting strikes, these fires spread across multiple feet deep, dry and extremely vulnerable peat bogs. The fires produced massive amounts...

  12. Adaptation to wildfire: A fish story

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Kirkland; Rebecca Flitcroft; Gordon Reeves; Paul Hessburg

    2017-01-01

    In the Pacific Northwest, native salmon and trout are some of the toughest survivors on the block. Over time, these fish have evolved behavioral adaptations to natural disturbances, and they rely on these disturbances to deliver coarse sediment and wood that become complex stream habitat. Powerful disturbances such as wildfire, postfire landslides, and debris flows may...

  13. The effects of wildfire prevention activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas Thomas; David Butry; Jeffrey Prestemon

    2013-01-01

    Eighty percent of wildfires are human caused. Unintentional human-caused fires can be caused by carelessness, failure of equipment, or a number of other factors. A significant proportion of the literature on accidents, in general, focuses on occupational accidents. Approximately 80 % to 90 % of these accidents are thought to be due to human error (Heinrich et al 1980...

  14. Understanding ecological transitions under recurrent wildfire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Devisscher, Tahia; Malhi, Yadvinder; Rojas Landívar, Víctor Diego; Oliveras Menor, Imma

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires in tropical forests are likely to become a more dominant disturbance due to future increasing feedbacks between rapid frontier expansion and more frequent droughts. This study evaluates the effects of fire recurrence on seasonally dry tropical forests of the Chiquitania region, located

  15. The lost summer: Community experiences of large wildfires in Trinity County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emily J. Davis; Cassandra Moseley; Pamela Jakes; Max. Nielsen-Pincus

    2011-01-01

    As wildfires are increasing in scale and duration, and communities are increasingly located where these wildfires are occurring, we need a clearer understanding of how large wildfires affect economic and social well being. These wildfires can have complex impacts on rural public lands communities. They can threaten homes, public health, and livelihoods. Wildfires can...

  16. Trial by fire: Community Wildfire Protection Plans put to the test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamela J. Jakes; Victoria. Sturtevant

    2013-01-01

    Research has found that community wildfire protection planning can make significant contributions to wildfire mitigation and preparedness, but can the planning process and resulting Community Wildfire Protection Plans make a difference to wildfire response and recovery? In case studies conducted in four USA communities with Community Wildfire Protection Plans in place...

  17. Historical reconstructions of California wildfires vary by data source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2016-01-01

    Historical data are essential for understanding how fire activity responds to different drivers. It is important that the source of data is commensurate with the spatial and temporal scale of the question addressed, but fire history databases are derived from different sources with different restrictions. In California, a frequently used fire history dataset is the State of California Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP) fire history database, which circumscribes fire perimeters at a relatively fine scale. It includes large fires on both state and federal lands but only covers fires that were mapped or had other spatially explicit data. A different database is the state and federal governments’ annual reports of all fires. They are more complete than the FRAP database but are only spatially explicit to the level of county (California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection – Cal Fire) or forest (United States Forest Service – USFS). We found substantial differences between the FRAP database and the annual summaries, with the largest and most consistent discrepancy being in fire frequency. The FRAP database missed the majority of fires and is thus a poor indicator of fire frequency or indicators of ignition sources. The FRAP database is also deficient in area burned, especially before 1950. Even in contemporary records, the huge number of smaller fires not included in the FRAP database account for substantial cumulative differences in area burned. Wildfires in California account for nearly half of the western United States fire suppression budget. Therefore, the conclusions about data discrepancies and the implications for fire research are of broad importance.

  18. The National Ignition Facility project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paisner, J.A.; Boyes, J.D.; Kumpan, S.A.; Sorem, M.

    1996-06-01

    The Secretary of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) commissioned a Conceptual Design Report (CDR) for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) in January 1993 as part of a Key Decision Zero (KD0), justification of Mission Need. Motivated by the progress to date by the Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) program in meeting the Nova Technical Contract goals established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1989, the Secretary requested a design using a solid-state laser driver operating at the third harmonic (0.35 {mu}m) of neodymium (Nd) glass. The participating ICF laboratories signed a Memorandum of Agreement in August 1993, and established a Project organization, including a technical team from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the Laboratory for Laser Energetics at the University of Rochester. Since then, the authors completed the NIF conceptual design, based on standard construction at a generic DOE Defense Program`s site, and issued a 7,000-page, 27-volume CDR in May 1994. Over the course of the conceptual design study, several other key documents were generated, including a Facilities Requirements Document, a Conceptual Design Scope and Plan, a Target Physics Design Document, a Laser Design Cost Basis Document, a Functional Requirements Document, an Experimental Plan for Indirect Drive Ignition, and a Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) Document. DOE used the PHA to categorize the NIF as a low-hazard, non-nuclear facility. This article presents an overview of the NIF project.

  19. Fighting fire and fatigue: sleep quantity and quality during multi-day wildfire suppression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Grace E; Aisbett, Brad; Hall, Sarah J; Ferguson, Sally A

    2016-07-01

    This study examined firefighters' sleep quantity and quality throughout multi-day wildfire suppression, and assessed the impact of sleep location, shift length, shift start time and incident severity on these variables. For 4 weeks, 40 volunteer firefighters' sleep was assessed using wrist actigraphy. Analyses revealed that the quantity of sleep obtained on fire days was restricted, and pre- and post-sleep fatigue ratings were higher, compared to non-fire days. On fire days, total sleep time was less when: (i) sleep location was in a tent or vehicle, (ii) shifts were greater than 14 h and (iii) shifts started between 05:00 and 06:00 h. This is the first empirical investigation providing objective evidence that firefighters' sleep is restricted during wildfire suppression. Furthermore, sleep location, shift length and shift start time should be targeted when designing appropriate controls to manage fatigue-related risk and preserve firefighters' health and safety during wildfire events. Practitioner Summary: During multi-day wildfire suppression, firefighters' sleep quantity was restricted, and pre- and post-sleep fatigue ratings were higher, compared to non-fire days. Furthermore, total sleep time was less when: (i) sleep occurred in a tent/vehicle, (ii) shifts were >14 h and (iii) shifts started between 05:00 and 06:00 h.

  20. Ignition by excimer laser photolysis of ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, D.; Dunn-Rankin, D.; Hom, K.; Brown, N. J.

    1986-10-01

    We have ignited mixtures of hydrogen, oxygen, and ozone in closed cells with 248 nm radiation from a KrF excimer laser. Ozone, the only significant absorber in this system, absorbs a single photon and produces oxygen atoms which initiate combustion. A discretized, time-dependent Beer's law model is used to demonstrate that the radical concentration immediately after photolysis is a function of laser power, ozone concentration, focal length, and separation between the lens and reaction cell. Spark schileren photographs are used to visualize the ignition events and identify the ignition sites. The effects of equivalence ratio, pressure, and the initial gas temperature on the minimum ozone concentration needed to produce ignition are presented, and only the initial temperature has a significant effect. Modelling studies of the ignition process aid in the interpretation of the experimental results, and show that the ignition we observe is not due solely to thermal effects, but is strongly dependent on the number and type of radicals present initially after photolysis. Ignition using other hydrocarbons as fuels was also demonstrated.

  1. Definition of Ignition in Inertial Confinement Fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopherson, A. R.; Betti, R.

    2017-10-01

    Defining ignition in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) is an unresolved problem. In ICF, a distinction must be made between the ignition of the hot spot and the propagation of the burn wave in the surrounding dense fuel. Burn propagation requires that the hot spot is robustly ignited and the dense shell exhibits enough areal density. Since most of the energy gain comes from burning the dense shell, in a scale of increasing yields, hot-spot ignition comes before high gains. Identifying this transition from hot-spot ignition to burn-wave propagation is key to defining ignition in general terms applicable to all fusion approaches that use solid DT fuel. Ad hoc definitions such as gain = 1 or doubling the temperature are not generally valid. In this work, we show that it is possible to identify the onset of ignition through a unique value of the yield amplification defined as the ratio of the fusion yield including alpha-particle deposition to the fusion yield without alphas. Since the yield amplification is a function of the fractional alpha energy fα =EαEα 2Ehs 2Ehs (a measurable quantity), it appears possible not only to define ignition but also to measure the onset of ignition by the experimental inference of the fractional alpha energy and yield amplification. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy Office of Fusion Energy Services under Award Number DE-FC02-04ER54789 and National Nuclear Security Administration under Award Number DE-NA0001944.

  2. Investigating Galaxy Merger Signatures with IGNITE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagursky, Matthew J.; Lotz, J. M.

    2009-01-01

    I present the software package IGNITE, the Interacting Galaxy Non-Interactive Tail Extractor. Its purpose is to locate tidal tails and quantify their morphological and photometric properties. I demonstrate the effective use of IGNITE on the case galaxy of NGC 2623 and report the photometric and morphological signatures of tidal tails in this galaxy. The future of the IGNITE package is a merge with other successful software packages aimed at quantifying merging galaxies to further enhance the accuracy of the quantitative measurements of morphologies and photometry profiles of merging galaxy candidates

  3. Electrical Arc Ignition Testing for Constellation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, Kyle; Gallus, Timothy; Smith, Sarah

    2009-01-01

    NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Materials and Processes Branch requested that NASA JSC White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) perform testing for the Constellation Program to evaluate the hazard of electrical arc ignition of materials that could be in close proximity to batteries. Specifically, WSTF was requested to perform wire-break electrical arc tests to determine the current threshold for ignition of generic cotton woven fabric samples with a fixed voltage of 3.7 V, a common voltage for hand-held electrical devices. The wire-break test was developed during a previous test program to evaluate the hazard of electrical arc ignition inside the Extravehicular Mobility Unit [1].

  4. Multitemporal Modelling of Socio-Economic Wildfire Drivers in Central Spain between the 1980s and the 2000s: Comparing Generalized Linear Models to Machine Learning Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilar, Lara; Gómez, Israel; Martínez-Vega, Javier; Echavarría, Pilar; Riaño, David; Martín, M Pilar

    2016-01-01

    The socio-economic factors are of key importance during all phases of wildfire management that include prevention, suppression and restoration. However, modeling these factors, at the proper spatial and temporal scale to understand fire regimes is still challenging. This study analyses socio-economic drivers of wildfire occurrence in central Spain. This site represents a good example of how human activities play a key role over wildfires in the European Mediterranean basin. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and machine learning Maximum Entropy models (Maxent) predicted wildfire occurrence in the 1980s and also in the 2000s to identify changes between each period in the socio-economic drivers affecting wildfire occurrence. GLM base their estimation on wildfire presence-absence observations whereas Maxent on wildfire presence-only. According to indicators like sensitivity or commission error Maxent outperformed GLM in both periods. It achieved a sensitivity of 38.9% and a commission error of 43.9% for the 1980s, and 67.3% and 17.9% for the 2000s. Instead, GLM obtained 23.33, 64.97, 9.41 and 18.34%, respectively. However GLM performed steadier than Maxent in terms of the overall fit. Both models explained wildfires from predictors such as population density and Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), but differed in their relative contribution. As a result of the urban sprawl and an abandonment of rural areas, predictors like WUI and distance to roads increased their contribution to both models in the 2000s, whereas Forest-Grassland Interface (FGI) influence decreased. This study demonstrates that human component can be modelled with a spatio-temporal dimension to integrate it into wildfire risk assessment.

  5. Ignitable solids having an arrayed structure and methods thereof

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adams, David P.; Reeves, Robert V.; Grubbs, Robert K.; Henry, Michael David

    2017-08-08

    The present invention relates to the design and manufacture of an ignitable solid, where the solid is composed of an array of ignitable regions. In some examples, the array provides a three-dimensional periodic arrangement of such ignitable regions. The ignitable region can have any useful geometry and geometric arrangement within the solid, and methods of making such regions are also described herein.

  6. 30 CFR 35.20 - Autogenous-ignition temperature test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Autogenous-ignition temperature test. 35.20... Autogenous-ignition temperature test. (a) Purpose. The purpose of this test, referred to hereinafter as the ignition-temperature test, is to determine the lowest autogenous-ignition temperature of a hydraulic fluid...

  7. Development status of the ignition system for Vinci

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frenken, G.; Vermeulen, E.; Bouquet, F.; Sanders, H.M.

    2002-01-01

    The development status of ignition system for the new cryogenic upper stage engine Vinci is presented. The concept differs from existing upper stage ignition systems as its functioning is engine independent. The system consists of a spark torch igniter, a highpressure igniter feed system and an

  8. A high-resolution modelling approach on spatial wildfire distribution in the Tyrolean Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malowerschnig, Bodo; Sass, Oliver

    2013-04-01

    Global warming will cause increasing danger of wildfires in Austria, which can have long-lasting consequences on woodland ecosystems. The protective effect of forest can be severely diminished, leading to natural hazards like avalanches and rockfall. However, data on wildfire frequency and distribution have been sparse and incomplete for Austria. Long-lasting postfire degradation under adverse preconditions (steep slopes, limestone) was a common phenomenon in parts of the Tyrolean Alps several decades ago and should become relevant again under a changing fire frequency. The FIRIA project compiles historical wildfire data, information on fuel loads, fire weather indices (FWI) and vegetation recovery patterns. The governing climatic, topographic and socio-economic factors of forest fire distribution were assessed to trigger a distribution model of currently fire-prone areas in Tyrol. By collecting data from different sources like old newspapers archives and fire-fighter databases, we were able to build up a fire database of wildfire occurrences containing more than 1400 forest fires since the 15th century in Tyrol. For the period from 1993 to 2011, the database is widely complete and covers 482 fires. Using a non-parametrical statistical method it was possible to select the best suited fire weather index (FWI) for the prediction. The testing of 19 FWI's shows that it is necessary to use two discriminative indices to differentiate between summer and winter season. Together with compiled topographic, socio-economic, infrastructure and forest maps, the dataset was the base for a multifactorial analysis, performed by comparing the maximum entropy approach (Maxent) with an ensemble classifier (Random Forests). Both approaches have their background in the spatial habitat distribution and are easy to adapt to the requirements of a wildfire ignition model. The aim of this modelling approach was to determine areas which are particularly prone to wildfire. Due to the

  9. Exposure to electrocution by automotive ignition system in the work environment of car service employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Fryśkowski

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Automotive ignition system diagnostic procedures involve a specific kind of action due to the presence of high voltage pulses rated of roughly several dozen kilovolts. Therefore, the repairers employed at car service coming into direct contact with electrical equipment of ignition systems are exposed to risk of electric shock. Typically, the electric discharge energy of automotive ignition systems is not high enough to cause fibrillation due to the electric effect on the heart. Nevertheless, there are drivers and car service employees who use electronic cardiac pacemakers susceptible to high voltage pulses. The influence of high-voltage ignition systems on the human body, especially in case of electric injury, has not been comprehensively elucidated. Therefore, relatively few scientific papers address this problem. The aim of this paper is to consider the electrical injury danger from automotive ignition systems, especially in people suffering from cardiac diseases. Some examples of the methods to reduce electric shock probability during diagnostic procedures of spark-ignition combustion engines are presented and discussed. Med Pr 2014;65(3:419–427

  10. [Exposure to electrocution by automotive ignition system in the work environment of car service employees].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryśkowski, Bernard; Swiatek-Fryśkowska, Dorota

    2014-01-01

    Automotive ignition system diagnostic procedures involve a specific kind of action due to the presence of high voltage pulses rated of roughly several dozen kilovolts. Therefore, the repairers employed at car service coming into direct contact with electrical equipment of ignition systems are exposed to risk of electric shock. Typically, the electric discharge energy of automotive ignition systems is not high enough to cause fibrillation due to the electric effect on the heart. Nevertheless, there are drivers and car service employees who use electronic cardiac pacemakers susceptible to high voltage pulses. The influence of high-voltage ignition systems on the human body, especially in case of electric injury, has not been comprehensively elucidated. Therefore, relatively few scientific papers address this problem. The aim of this paper is to consider the electrical injury danger from automotive ignition systems, especially in people suffering from cardiac diseases. Some examples of the methods to reduce electric shock probability during diagnostic procedures of spark-ignition combustion engines are presented and discussed.

  11. Laser-plasma interaction physics for shock ignition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goyon C.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In the shock ignition scheme, the ICF target is first compressed with a long (nanosecond pulse before creating a convergent shock with a short (∼100 ps pulse to ignite thermonuclear reactions. This short pulse is typically (∼2.1015–1016 W/cm2 above LPI (Laser Plasma Instabilities thresholds. The plasma is in a regime where the electron temperature is expected to be very high (2–4 keV and the laser coupling to the plasma is not well understood. Emulating LPI in the corona requires large and hot plasmas produced by high-energy lasers. We conducted experiments on the LIL (Ligne d'Integration Laser, 10 kJ at 3ω and the LULI2000 (0.4 kJ at 2ω facilities, to approach these conditions and study absorption and LPI produced by a high intensity beam in preformed plasmas. After introducing the main risks associated with the short pulse propagation, we present the latest experiment we conducted on LPI in relevant conditions for shock ignition.

  12. Plasma igniter for internal-combustion engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breshears, R. R.; Fitzgerald, D. J.

    1978-01-01

    Hot ionized gas (plasma) ignites air/fuel mixture in internal combustion engines more effectively than spark. Electromagnetic forces propel plasma into combustion zone. Combustion rate is not limited by flame-front speed.

  13. High energy gain by volume ignition-A tutorial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliezer, S.; Martinez-Val, J.M.; Piera, M. [Institute of Nuclear Fusion, Polytechnical University of Madrid (Spain); Hora, H. [Institute of Nuclear Fusion, Polytechnical University of Madrid (Spain)]|[Theoretical Physics Department, University of New South Wales, Kensington (Australia)

    1994-10-05

    Ignition models for Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) are analyzed on the basis of fuel energy balances. Spark ignition models are in general identified as more effective alternatives than raw volume ignition. Nevertheless, it is demonstrated that volume ignition can yield very high energy gains comparable to spark ignition if the whole picture is properly taken into account. References are made to some outstanding experiments and to numerical simulations which support this tutorial explanation. {copyright} 1994 {ital American} {ital Institute} {ital of} {ital Physics}

  14. Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

    2016-01-01

    fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

  15. Dynamic Regime of Ignition of Solid Propellant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zolotorev Nikolay

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a dynamic regime of exposure of the radiant flux on the sample of gun-cotton. Obtained time the ignition of gun-cotton in the heating conditions of increasing heat flux in the range from 0.2 W/cm2 to 22 W/cm2. A comparison of the delay times of the ignition when heated variable and constant heat flux.

  16. Comprehensive Computational Modeling of Hypergolic Propellant Ignition

    OpenAIRE

    Sardeshmukh, Swanand Vijay

    2013-01-01

    Ignition and combustion of hypergolic propellants mono-methyl hydrazine (MMH) and red fuming nitric acid (RFNA) is investigated computationally. A hierarchical approach is chosen to study parametric behavior of isolated processes and complex interactions thereof, in this transient phenomenon. Starting with a homogeneous reactor, performance of three reduced kinetic mechanisms is assessed first, followed by the study of auto-ignition delay as a function of initial composition and thermal state...

  17. Regeneration and invasion of cottonwood riparian forest following wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wonkka, Carissa L.; Twidwell, Dirac; Bielski, Christine H.; Allen, Craig R.; Stambaugh, Michael C.

    2017-01-01

    Populus deltoides is considered to be a weak resprouter and highly susceptible to wildfire, but few post-wildfire studies have tracked P. deltoides response and resprouting within the Great Plains of North America. Following a wildfire in southwestern Kansas, U.S.A., we surveyed burned and unburned areas of a cottonwood riparian forest along the Cimarron River that included a major understory invader, tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb.). We tested the following hypotheses, which are consistent with the current understanding of P. deltoides response to wildfire in the Great Plains: (1) regeneration of P. deltoides will be low in areas burned by the wildfire; (2) the number of dead P. deltoides individuals will be greater in the wildfire than unburned areas; and (3) tamarisk regeneration will be higher than P. deltoides regeneration in the wildfire areas because tamarisk is considered a stronger resprouter. We found evidence contrary to two of our hypotheses 3 years following the wildfire. (1) P. deltoides regeneration was high following the wildfire, averaging 692 individuals/ha. (2) The number of dead mature cottonwood trees was greater in wildfire plots than in unburned plots. (3) There was more P. deltoides regeneration than tamarisk regeneration following wildfire. These findings, which diverge from the majority of studies examining P. deltoides regeneration in the Great Plains, suggest that differing local environmental and forest stand conditions, coupled with the timing and intensity of the fire, could be important determinants of riparian forest species' responses to wildfire.

  18. Empirical evidence for multi-scaled controls on wildfire size distributions in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Povak, N.; Hessburg, P. F., Sr.; Salter, R. B.

    2014-12-01

    Ecological theory asserts that regional wildfire size distributions are examples of self-organized critical (SOC) systems. Controls on SOC event-size distributions by virtue are purely endogenous to the system and include the (1) frequency and pattern of ignitions, (2) distribution and size of prior fires, and (3) lagged successional patterns after fires. However, recent work has shown that the largest wildfires often result from extreme climatic events, and that patterns of vegetation and topography may help constrain local fire spread, calling into question the SOC model's simplicity. Using an atlas of >12,000 California wildfires (1950-2012) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), we fit four different power-law models and broken-stick regressions to fire-size distributions across 16 Bailey's ecoregions. Comparisons among empirical fire size distributions across ecoregions indicated that most ecoregion's fire-size distributions were significantly different, suggesting that broad-scale top-down controls differed among ecoregions. One-parameter power-law models consistently fit a middle range of fire sizes (~100 to 10000 ha) across most ecoregions, but did not fit to larger and smaller fire sizes. We fit the same four power-law models to patch size distributions of aspect, slope, and curvature topographies and found that the power-law models fit to a similar middle range of topography patch sizes. These results suggested that empirical evidence may exist for topographic controls on fire sizes. To test this, we used neutral landscape modeling techniques to determine if observed fire edges corresponded with aspect breaks more often than expected by random. We found significant differences between the empirical and neutral models for some ecoregions, particularly within the middle range of fire sizes. Our results, combined with other recent work, suggest that controls on ecoregional fire size distributions are multi-scaled and likely are not purely SOC. California

  19. Tokamak two-fluid ignition conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guazzotto, L.; Betti, R.

    2017-08-01

    This work focuses on modeling the properties needed by a plasma to reach ignition, where ignition is the condition in which fusion power is produced at the steady state without any external input power. We extend the classic work by Lawson giving the ptotτE (product between density, temperature, and energy confinement time) needed for ignition [J. D. Lawson, Proc. Phys. Soc. London, Sect. B 70, 6 (1957)] by improving the original zero-dimensional, single fluid model. The effect of multi-fluid physics is included, by distinguishing ions, electrons, and α particles. The effects of one-dimensional density and temperature profiles are also considered. It is found that the multi-fluid model predicts a larger Lawson product required for ignition than the single-fluid one. A detailed analysis of the energy confinement times for each species and energy equilibration times between species shows that the electron energy confinement time is the parameter more strongly affecting the Lawson product needed for ignition. It is also found that peaked profiles (of either temperature or density) require a smaller Lawson product for ignition than flat profiles.

  20. Physiological work demands of Spanish wildland firefighters during wildfire suppression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Marroyo, Jose A; López-Satue, Jorge; Pernía, Raul; Carballo, Belén; García-López, Juan; Foster, Carl; Villa, José G

    2012-02-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze the physiological demands and thermal strain of wildland firefighters during real wildfire suppression. The response of core temperature and heart rate (HR) were analyzed in 200 wildland firefighters during wildfire suppression activities of different duration: 5 h (n = 34). The exercise workload (TRIMP), the physiological strain index (PSI), and cumulative heat strain index (CHSI) were calculated using the time spent in different intensity zones, the HR, and core temperature. Mean HR was significantly higher (P wildfires 5 h (116 ± 32 bpm). The time spent in higher intensity zones increased (P wildfire duration increased. TRIMP accumulation increased with wildfire duration (54.9 ± 3.2, 167.4 ± 5.9, 296.0 ± 8.3, 511.7 ± 12.8 in 5 h, respectively). Neither core temperature (37.4 ± 0.1°C) nor PSI (4.5 ± 0.2) were influenced by wildfire duration. The CHSI increased (p 5 h (10,703 ± 710). The results demonstrate the high work strain sustained by Spanish wildland firefighters during wildfire suppression. Both workload and CHSI increased with the wildfires duration although the pace of work was faster in wildfires of a shorter duration.

  1. Listening and learning from traditional knowledge and western science: A dialogue on contemporary challenges of forest health and wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larry Mason; Germaine White; Gary Morishima; Ernesto Alvarado; Louise Andrew; Fred Clark; Mike Durglo; Jim Durglo; John Eneas; Jim Erickson; Margaret Friedlander; Kathy Hamel; Colin Hardy; Tony Harwood; Faline Haven; Everett Isaac; Laurel James; Robert Kenning; Adrian Leighton; Pat Pierre; Carol Raish; Bodie Shaw; Steven Smallsalmon; Vernon Stearns; Howard Teasley; Matt Weingart; Spus Wilder

    2012-01-01

    Native Americans relied on fire to maintain a cultural landscape that sustained their lifeways for thousands of years. Within the past 100 years, however, policies of fire exclusion have disrupted ecological processes, elevating risk of wildfire, insects, and disease, affecting the health and availability of resources on which the tribes depend. On Indian Reservations...

  2. Landscape-scale fuel treatment and wildfire impacts on carbon stocks and fire hazard in California spotted owl habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay A. Chiono; Danny L. Fry; Brandon M. Collins; Andrea H. Chatfield; Scott L. Stephens

    2017-01-01

    Forest managers are challenged with meeting numerous demands that often include wildlife habitat and carbon (C) sequestration. We used a probabilistic framework of wildfire occurrence to (1) estimate the potential for fuel treatments to reduce fire risk and hazard across the landscape and within protected California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis...

  3. Technology and the study of wildfire: Middle school students study the impacts of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox-Gliessman, D.; Kerski, J.J.

    2005-01-01

    Various technologies that can assist students in exploring the human and environmental impacts of wildfire and in communicating their findings are discussed. Wildfires occur in many parts of the world, and provide an excellent opportunity for students to study local and global interdisciplinary issues using technology. Prior to the beginning of the field study, students take instructions in both their math and science classes about the distinction and appropriate uses of quantitative and qualitative data. Use of computer programs such as Excel spreadsheets which can contain data, and interaction of research and technology group with students, can help them collect best of the information and in making an accurate report.

  4. The normalised wildfire ash index (NWAI): a remote sensing approach for quantifying post-wildfire ash loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris, Chafer; Doerr, Stefan; Santin, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The impacts of wildfire ash, the powdery residue from fuel burning, on post-fire ecosystems are many and diverse. Ash is a source of nutrients and can help the recovery of vegetation. It can also contain substantial amounts of recalcitrant carbon and thus contribute to long-term carbon storage. In its initial state, the ash layer on the ground can protect the bare soil, mitigating post-fire water erosion by runoff. However, when the adsorbent capability of this layer is exceeded, ash can be transported into the hydrological network and be a major contributor to water contamination. Ash can also contribute to post-fire mass movements such as debris flows. The eco-hydro-geomorphic impacts of ash on post-fire ecosystems are therefore important, but remain poorly quantified. A fundamental step in that direction is the understanding of ash production and distribution at the landscape scale, which would allow incorporating ash as a key parameter into post-fire risk models. We have developed a new spectral index (NWAI) using Landsat imagery to model the spatial distribution of ash loads in the post-fire landscape. It was developed based on a severe wildfire that burnt 13,000 ha of dry eucalyptus forest near Sydney and has also been tested for a forested area burnt by the catastrophic 2009 Black Saturday fires near Melbourne. Although ecosystem and fire characteristics differed substantially between the Sydney and Melbourne fires, our NWAI index performs well. In this contribution we will discuss the (i) the principles of the NWAI and (ii) its potential for pollution risk forecasting.

  5. Minitature electro-pyrotechnic igniter, and ignition head for the same

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, L.D. van; Schuurbiers, C.A.H.; Tata Nardini, F.

    2014-01-01

    An electric non-pyrotechnic ignition head (100) suitable for use in an electro- pyrotechnic igniter (1), comprising: a housing (102) defining a front opening (106); - an electrically insulative, thermally conductive bridge filament support body (130) that is at least partly disposed in said front

  6. Ignition delay times of Gasoline Distillation Cuts measured with Ignition Quality Tester

    KAUST Repository

    Naser, Nimal

    2017-04-21

    Tailoring fuel properties to maximize the efficiency of internal combustion engines is a way towards achieving cleaner combustion systems. In this work, the ignition properties of various gasoline fuel distillation cuts are analyzed to better understand fuel properties of the full boiling range fuel. An advanced distillation column (ADC) provides a more realistic representation of volatility characteristics, which can be modeled using equilibrium thermodynamic methods. The temperature reported is that of the liquid, as opposed to the vapor temperature in conventional ASTM D86 distillation standard. Various FACE (fuels for advanced combustion engines) gasolines were distilled and various cuts were obtained. The separated fractions were then tested in an ignition quality tester (IQT) to see the effect of chemical composition of different fractions on their ignition delay time. Fuels with lower aromatic content showed decreasing ignition delay time with increasing boiling point (i.e., molecular weight). However, fuels with higher aromatic content showed an initial decrease in ignition delay time with increasing boiling point, followed by drastic increase in ignition delay time due to fractions containing aromatics. This study also provides an understanding on contribution of different fractions to the ignition delay time of the fuel, which provides insights into fuel stratification utilized in gasoline compression ignition (GCI) engines to tailor heat release rates.

  7. Development of wildfires in Australia over the last century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieradzik, Lars Peter; Haverd, Vanessa; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep G.; Smith, Ben

    2017-04-01

    Wildfires and their emissions are key biospheric processes in the modeling of the carbon cycle that still are insufficiently understood. In Australia, fire emissions constitute a large flux of carbon from the biosphere to the atmosphere of approximately 1.3 times larger than the annual fossil fuel emissions. In addition, fire plays a big role in determining the composition of vegetation which in turn affects land-atmosphere fluxes. Annualy, up to 4% of the vegetated land-surface area is burned which amounts to up to 3% of global NPP and results in the reslease of about 2 Pg carbon into the atmosphere. There are indications that burned area has decreased globally over recent decades but so far there is not a clear trend in the development in fire-intensity and fuel availability. Net emissions from wildfires are not generally included in global and regional carbon budgets, because it is assumed that gross fire emissions are in balance with post-fire carbon uptake by recovering vegetation. This is a valid assumption as long as climate and fire regimes are in equilibrium, but not when the climate and other drivers are changing. We present a study on the behaviour of wildfires on the Australian continent over the last century (1911 - 2012) introducing the novel fire model BLAZE (BLAZe induced biosphere-atmosphere flux Estimator) that has been designed to address the feedbacks between climate, fuel loads, and fires. BLAZE is used within the Australian land-surface model CABLE (Community Atmophere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model). The study shows two significant outcomes: A regional shift in fire patterns shift during this century due to fire suppression and greening effects as well as an increase of potential fire-line intensity (the risk that a fire becomes more intense), especially in regions where most of Australia's population resides. This strongly emphasises the need to further investigate fire dynamics under future climate scenarios. The fire model BLAZE has been

  8. Aerospace Laser Ignition/Ablation Variable High Precision Thruster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Jonathan W. (Inventor); Edwards, David L. (Inventor); Campbell, Jason J. (Inventor)

    2015-01-01

    A laser ignition/ablation propulsion system that captures the advantages of both liquid and solid propulsion. A reel system is used to move a propellant tape containing a plurality of propellant material targets through an ignition chamber. When a propellant target is in the ignition chamber, a laser beam from a laser positioned above the ignition chamber strikes the propellant target, igniting the propellant material and resulting in a thrust impulse. The propellant tape is advanced, carrying another propellant target into the ignition chamber. The propellant tape and ignition chamber are designed to ensure that each ignition event is isolated from the remaining propellant targets. Thrust and specific impulse may by precisely controlled by varying the synchronized propellant tape/laser speed. The laser ignition/ablation propulsion system may be scaled for use in small and large applications.

  9. Advances in Modeling Direct-Drive Ignition at the National Ignition Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, T. J. B.; Marozas, J. A.

    2017-10-01

    Polar direct drive (PDD) makes it possible to perform direct-drive-ignition experiments at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) while the facility is configured for indirect drive. We present for the first time PDD ignition-relevant target designs with decreased laser intensities. These designs include the physical effects of cross-beam energy transfer (CBET) and nonlocal heat transport, both of which substantially affect the target drive. In the PDD configuration, a multiwavelength detuning strategy was found to be effective in mitigating the loss of coupling caused by CBET, allowing for implosion speeds comparable to those of previous designs. Target designs will be presented that span the region from alpha-particle heating to ignition. In addition, ignition-relevant designs will also be discussed for use in symmetric direct drive on the NIF. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration under Award Number DE-NA0001944.

  10. Biomass ignition in mills and storages – is it explained by conventional thermal ignition theory?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwarzer, Lars; Jensen, Peter Arendt; Glarborg, Peter

    Self-ignition temperatures determined in the framework of conventional thermal ignition theory does not explain why biomass is much more susceptible to spontaneous ignition in power plant mills or storages. Examining the onset of reactions at low temperatures may provide a better understanding...... of the process, which can then be incorporated into refined models of self-ignition for biomass and other organic solids. In the present study, the slow, transient heating of several lignocellulosic biomasses and a bituminous coal from ambient temperature to around 300° C were investigated in a lab scale tube......, suggesting that a heterogeneous oxidation is the dominating mechanism in self-ignition. It could also be shown that both mechanisms compete for reactive material. While oxidation was exothermic, pyrolysis was largely thermally neutral in these experiments. Reaction behavior was seen to depend highly...

  11. Evidence of debris flow occurrence after wildfire in southeast Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyman, Petter; Sheridan, Gary; Smith, Hugh; Lane, Patrick

    2010-05-01

    With the recent increase in wildfire activity in the southeast Australia, an apparent gap has emerged in relation to our understanding of how the landscape responds to fire and the role of extreme erosion events in the region. Numerous reports of ‘flash floods", "mud torrents' and "landslides" in fire affected areas have only recently been recognised as significant events that warrant more detailed investigation. The aims of this study were to i) collect and show evidence of debris flow occurrence following recent wildfires in Victoria; ii) identify thresholds and key hydrological properties; and iii) present preliminary data on erosion rates from selected debris flows. The result showed that twelve out of fifteen recorded extreme erosion events originated from runoff generated debris flows. These occurred in Dry Eucalypt forests in steep and severely burnt headwater catchments throughout mountainous regions of north-, central- and eastern Victoria. The debris flows were triggered by intense, short duration rainfall events with annual exceedance probability in the order of 20%. This is the first study that documents the occurrence of runoff generated debris flows in Australia, so the observations and data are compared with the existing knowledge from similar post-fire responses in the western USA. Typical features common to both systems include low infiltration capacity of burnt catchments, widespread sheet erosion and levee lined rills on steep upper hillslopes and severe channel erosion initiated in response to convergent flow in previously un-scoured drainage lines. Runoff generated debris flow were not recorded in wet or damp forest types suggesting that this process is less likely to operate in these forest environments. One isolated case of mass failure generated debris flow was recorded in wet forest. The outcome of the study indicates that runoff generated debris flows are an important process to be considered during post-fire risk assessment of

  12. 3rd Conference on Ignition Systems for Gasoline Engines

    CERN Document Server

    Sens, Marc

    2017-01-01

    The volume includes selected and reviewed papers from the 3rd Conference on Ignition Systems for Gasoline Engines in Berlin in November 2016. Experts from industry and universities discuss in their papers the challenges to ignition systems in providing reliable, precise ignition in the light of a wide spread in mixture quality, high exhaust gas recirculation rates and high cylinder pressures. Classic spark plug ignition as well as alternative ignition systems are assessed, the ignition system being one of the key technologies to further optimizing the gasoline engine.

  13. Piloted Ignition Regimes of Wildland Fuel Beds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, J. C.; Simeoni, A.; Colella, F.; Torero, J. L.

    2012-04-01

    Pine needle litters, a key fuel in North American and Mediterranean forest systems, are highly porous fuel beds. They provide a source of continuous fuel medium that can be easily ignited and will sustain flame spread in forest fires. This study is a continuation of previous piloted ignition experimentation [1]. Here, focus was drawn to the influence of airflow in a porous fuel bed for three species: Pinus halepensis, Pinus strobus, and Pinus resinosa. Each needle species is characterized by surface-to-volume ratio and density. The tests samples are characterized by the bulk density, porosity and absorptivity. The needles are subjected to an external radiant heat flux using the FM Global Fire Propagation Apparatus. Ignition delay times and surface temperatures were recorded under a range of different test conditions (basket open area, flow conditions and different level of the radiant heat flux). A comparison of the results indicates that the flow condition must be considered for the modeling of such fuel beds. For conditions where the air flow through the sample is blocked a solid like behavior can be observed. The results show that this cannot be granted for open sample baskets. The goal of this study is to understand the effects, cooling and mixing, of airflow through the porous medium on the time to ignition of the sample and aid in the development of new models for characterizing the ignition behavior.

  14. Review of Progress in Fast Ignition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tabak, M; Town, R; Lasinski, B; Snavely, R; Clark, D; Wilks, S; Key, M; Hatchett, S; Stevens, R; Campbell, E; Mima, K; Tanaka, K; Kodama, R; Atzeni, S

    2004-11-08

    Marshall Rosenbluth's extensive contributions included seminal analysis of the inertial fusion program. Over the last decade he avidly followed the efforts of many scientists around the world who have studied Fast Ignition, an alternate form of inertial fusion. In this scheme, the fuel is first compressed by a long pulse driver and then ignited by the short pulse laser. Due to technological advances, external energy sources (such as short pulse lasers) can focus intensity equivalent to that produced by the hydrodynamic stagnation of conventional inertial fusion capsules. This review will discuss the ignition requirements and gain curves starting from simple models and then describing how these are modified, as more detailed physics understanding is included. The critical design issues revolve around two questions: How can the compressed fuel be efficiently assembled? And how can power from the driver be delivered to the ignition region? Schemes to shorten the distance between the critical surface and the ignition region will de discussed. The status of the project is compared with our requirements for success. Future research directions will be outlined.

  15. Analytical model for fast-shock ignition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Ghasemi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available A model and its improvements are introduced for a recently proposed approach to inertial confinement fusion, called fast-shock ignition (FSI. The analysis is based upon the gain models of fast ignition, shock ignition and considerations for the fast electrons penetration into the pre-compressed fuel to examine the formation of an effective central hot spot. Calculations of fast electrons penetration into the dense fuel show that if the initial electron kinetic energy is of the order ∼4.5 MeV, the electrons effectively reach the central part of the fuel. To evaluate more realistically the performance of FSI approach, we have used a quasi-two temperature electron energy distribution function of Strozzi (2012 and fast ignitor energy formula of Bellei (2013 that are consistent with 3D PIC simulations for different values of fast ignitor laser wavelength and coupling efficiency. The general advantages of fast-shock ignition in comparison with the shock ignition can be estimated to be better than 1.3 and it is seen that the best results can be obtained for the fuel mass around 1.5 mg, fast ignitor laser wavelength ∼0.3  micron and the shock ignitor energy weight factor about 0.25.

  16. Capsule Design for Hybrid Shock Ignition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgaertel, J. A.; Dodd, E. S.; Loomis, E. N.

    2014-10-01

    Hybrid Shock-Ignition (HSI) is an alternate fusion energy concept that combines indirect drive and shock ignition schemes in order to access new regimes in National Ignition Facility (NIF) hohlraum physics. Building off of tetrahedral hohlraum experiments at the OMEGA laser facility, we have preliminary designs for spherical hohlraums that combine symmetrically arranged laser entrance holes for indirect-drive beams (to initially compress the capsule) and holes for direct-drive beams to drive a strong ignitor shock (to further compress and ignite the fuel). A LANL Eulerian hydrodynamic code is being used to find optimal laser drive, hohlraum, and capsule specifications, via criteria such as implosion symmetry, implosion time, and neutron yield. At first, drive will be modeled using a radiation source to mimic the hohlraum drive, and later, ignitor beams will be added. Initial capsule designs will be presented for experiments to develop the HSI platform on the sub-ignition scale OMEGA laser facility in FY15. Supported under the U.S. Department of Energy by the Los Alamos National Security, LLC under Contract DE-AC52-06NA25396. LA-UR-14-25071.

  17. Dark Matter Ignition of Type Ia Supernovae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramante, Joseph

    2015-10-02

    Recent studies of low redshift type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) indicate that half explode from less than Chandrasekhar mass white dwarfs, implying ignition must proceed from something besides the canonical criticality of Chandrasekhar mass SN Ia progenitors. We show that 1-100 PeV mass asymmetric dark matter, with imminently detectable nucleon scattering interactions, can accumulate to the point of self-gravitation in a white dwarf and collapse, shedding gravitational potential energy by scattering off nuclei, thereby heating the white dwarf and igniting the flame front that precedes SN Ia. We combine data on SN Ia masses with data on the ages of SN Ia-adjacent stars. This combination reveals a 2.8σ inverse correlation between SN Ia masses and ignition ages, which could result from increased capture of dark matter in 1.4 vs 1.1 solar mass white dwarfs. Future studies of SN Ia in galactic centers will provide additional tests of dark-matter-induced type Ia ignition. Remarkably, both bosonic and fermionic SN Ia-igniting dark matter also resolve the missing pulsar problem by forming black holes in ≳10  Myr old pulsars at the center of the Milky Way.

  18. Wildfires as dominant force driving farming systems in the forest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Wildfires have become very influential in the ecology and socio-economic aspects of the rural landscape in the transition zone of Ghana. Eight farming communities around four forest reserves with short fire-return intervals were studied to determine major changes in farming systems that can be attributed to wildfires.

  19. Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.L. Westerling; B.P. Bryant; H.K. Preisler; T.P. Holmes; H.G. Hildalgo; T. Das; S.R. Shrestha

    2011-01-01

    Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre...

  20. Wildfire Restoration and Rehabilitation: Triage in Pursuit of Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper reports on the synthesis of "Wildfire Rehabilitation and Restoration" workshop that was part of a larger conference-workshop "Wildfires and Invasive Plants in American Deserts" sponsored by the Society for Range Management in Reno, Nevada in December 2008. The workshop started out with i...

  1. Working with community leadership to promote wildfire preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erika A. Lang; Kristen C. Nelson; Pamela Jakes

    2006-01-01

    This study provides insights into the role of local leaders in wildfire preparedness, specifically, how leaders motivate residents to work together. We found that community leaders become involved in wildfire preparedness for a number of reasons and bring important skills with them from past experiences. The majority of leaders were involved in multiple leadership...

  2. Amphibians and wildfire in the U.S. Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake R. Hossack

    2006-01-01

    Recent evidence of amphibian declines along with outbreaks of large wildfires in western North American conifer forests has underscored our lack of knowledge about effects of fire on amphibians in these ecosystems. Understanding the connection between amphibian declines and wildfire is proving complex in some areas because the past century of fire suppression and other...

  3. Role of buoyant flame dynamics in wildfire spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Jack D. Cohen; Jason M. Forthofer; Sara S. McAllister; Michael J. Gollner; Daniel J. Gorham; Kozo Saito; Nelson K. Akafuah; Brittany A. Adam; Justin D. English

    2015-01-01

    Large wildfires of increasing frequency and severity threaten local populations and natural resources and contribute carbon emissions into the earth-climate system. Although wildfires have been researched and modeled for decades, no verifiable physical theory of spread is available to form the basis for the precise predictions needed to manage fires more effectively...

  4. Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald McKenzie; Uma Shankar; Robert E. Keane; E. Natasha Stavros; Warren E. Heilman; Douglas G. Fox; Allen C. Riebau

    2014-01-01

    Smoke from wildfires has adverse biological and social consequences, and various lines of evidence suggest that smoke from wildfires in the future may be more intense and widespread, demanding that methods be developed to address its effects on people, ecosystems, and the atmosphere. In this paper, we present the essential ingredients of a modeling system for...

  5. Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska's changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is altering wildfire activity across Alaska, with increased area burned projected for the future. Changes in wildfire are expected to affect the need for management and suppression resources, however the potential economic implications of these needs have not been ...

  6. Post-wildfire regeneration of rangeland productivity and functionality ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Wildfires can have significant impacts on rangeland productivity and functionality causing substantial economic losses to affected farmers. In August 2011, such wildfires swept through the North West province of South Africa, destroying large areas of grazing and farm infrastructure. There is little information available on ...

  7. Effects of wildfire on soil nutrients in Mediterranean ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caon, L.; Vallejo, V.R.; Ritsema, C.J.; Geissen, V.

    2014-01-01

    High-intensity and fast-spreading wildfires are natural in the Mediterranean basin. However, since 1960, wildfire occurrence has increased because of changes in land use, which resulted in extensive land abandonment, increases in the fuel load and continuity in the landscape. The level of soil

  8. Exercises in Pro/Engineer Wildfire 5.0

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Georg Kronborg

    2011-01-01

    Exercises in the CAD system ProEngineer corresponding to an introduction covering basic functionality. Updated note for Wildfire 5.0......Exercises in the CAD system ProEngineer corresponding to an introduction covering basic functionality. Updated note for Wildfire 5.0...

  9. National database for calculating fuel available to wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald McKenzie; Nancy H.F. French; Roger D. Ottmar

    2012-01-01

    Wildfires are increasingly emerging as an important component of Earth system models, particularly those that involve emissions from fires and their effects on climate. Currently, there are few resources available for estimating emissions from wildfires in real time, at subcontinental scales, in a spatially consistent manner. Developing subcontinental-scale databases...

  10. Efficient and Equitable Design of Wildfire Mitigation Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; Karen L. Abt; Robert Huggett; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2007-01-01

    Natural resource economists have addresssed the economic effienciency of expenditures on wildfire mitigation for nearly a century (Gope and Gorte 1979). Beginning with the work of Sparhawk (1925), the theory of efficent wildfire mitigation developed alolng conceptual lines drawn form neoclassical economics. The objective of the traditional least-cost-plus-loss model...

  11. The effects of a wildfire on pine seedling recruitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paula C. Gnehm; Brad Hadley

    2007-01-01

    We investigated the effects of a single arson wildfire by comparing its impact on pine seedling recruitment with that of both prescribed fire and unburned compartments. Although a t-test detected no significant difference in pine seedling recruitment (p = 0.38), the "wildfire" treatment produced 127 more seedlings than the unburned...

  12. Assessing landscape vulnerability to wildfire in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicole M. Vaillant; Crystal A. Kolden; Alistair M. S. Smith

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire is an ever present, natural process shaping landscapes. Having the ability to accurately measure and predict wildfire occurrence and impacts to ecosystem goods and services, both retrospectively and prospectively, is critical for adaptive management of landscapes. Landscape vulnerability is a concept widely utilized in the ecosystem management literature that...

  13. Effects of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey A Hicke; Morris C. Johnson; Jane L. Hayes; Haiganoush K. Preisler

    2012-01-01

    Millions of trees killed by bark beetles in western North America have raised concerns about subsequent wildfire, but studies have reported a range of conclusions, often seemingly contradictory, about effects on fuels and wildfire. In this study, we reviewed and synthesized the published literature on modifications to fuels and fire characteristics following beetle-...

  14. Suppression cost forecasts in advance of wildfire seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Karen Abt; Krista Gebert

    2008-01-01

    Approaches for forecasting wildfire suppression costs in advance of a wildfire season are demonstrated for two lead times: fall and spring of the current fiscal year (Oct. 1–Sept. 30). Model functional forms are derived from aggregate expressions of a least cost plus net value change model. Empirical estimates of these models are used to generate advance-of-season...

  15. Assessing Climate Change in Early Warm Season and Impacts on Wildfire Potential in the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J.; Nghiem, S. V.; Fujioka, F.; Myoung, B.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires are an important concern in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) where the prevalent semi-arid to arid climate, vegetation types and hot and dry warm seasons challenge strategic fire management. Although they are part of the natural cycle related to the region's climate, significant growth of urban areas and expansion of the wildland-urban interface, have made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. Previous studies also showed that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts due to large variations in wet season rainfall and has suffered from a number of severe wildfires in the recent decades. Despite the increasing trend in large wildfires, future wildfire risk assessment studies at regional scales for proactive adaptations are lacking. Our previous study revealed strong correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperatures during March-June in SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry conditions in an NAO-positive spring, combined with reduced winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and extend it for several seasons, from late spring to fall. A strong interannual variation of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) during the early warm season was also found in the 35 year period 1979 - 2013 of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the climate change impact that early warm season temperatures have on future wildfire danger potential. Our study reported here examines fine-resolution fire-weather variables for 2041-2070 projected in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The local wildfire potential in future climate is investigated using both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the

  16. Peat properties and water retention in boreal forested peatlands subject to wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Dan K.; Waddington, James M.

    2013-06-01

    Peat cores from a recently burned peatland and one over 75 years since fire in Alberta, Canada were analyzed for physical properties and water retention. Wildfire exposed denser peat at the peat surface, more so in hollow than hummock microforms. Water retention in peat has implications for postfire Sphagnum regeneration, as this more dense peat requires smaller volumes of water loss before a critical growth-inhibiting pore-water pressure of -100 mb is reached. Simulations of water retention after fire showed that hollow microforms are at a higher risk of losing low-density surface peat, which moderates water table (WT) declines via high specific yield. Exposure of dense peat to the surface after fire increases surface moisture under a constant WT. The net effect of decreasing specific yield and increasing water retention at the surface has implications on hydrologic stability and resilience of boreal peatlands to future wildfire risk under a changing climate. Earth system models incorporating wildfire disturbance in boreal peatlands would benefit from the inclusion of these hydrological feedbacks in this globally significant carbon reservoir.

  17. Valuing morbidity effects of wildfire smoke exposure from the 2007 Southern California wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikuho Kochi; Patricia A. Champ; John B. Loomis; Geoffrey H. Donovan

    2016-01-01

    This study estimated the economic costs associated with morbidity from the wildfires that occurred in 2007 in southern California. We used the excess number of hospital admissions and emergency department visits to quantify the morbidity effects and used medical costs to estimate the economic impact. With data from 187 hospital facilities and 140 emergency departments...

  18. National Ignition Facility Target Chamber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wavrik, R W; Cox, J R; Fleming, P J

    2000-10-05

    On June 11, 1999 the Department of Energy dedicated the single largest piece of the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in Livermore, California. The ten (10) meter diameter aluminum target high vacuum chamber will serve as the working end of the largest laser in the world. The output of 192 laser beams will converge at the precise center of the chamber. The laser beams will enter the chamber in two by two arrays to illuminate 10 millimeter long gold cylinders called hohlraums enclosing 2 millimeter capsule containing deuterium, tritium and isotopes of hydrogen. The two isotopes will fuse, thereby creating temperatures and pressures resembling those found only inside stars and in detonated nuclear weapons, but on a minute scale. The NIF Project will serve as an essential facility to insure safety and reliability of our nation's nuclear arsenal as well as demonstrating inertial fusion's contribution to creating electrical power. The paper will discuss the requirements that had to be addressed during the design, fabrication and testing of the target chamber. A team from Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and LLNL with input from industry performed the configuration and basic design of the target chamber. The method of fabrication and construction of the aluminum target chamber was devised by Pitt-Des Moines, Inc. (PDM). PDM also participated in the design of the chamber in areas such as the Target Chamber Realignment and Adjustment System, which would allow realignment of the sphere laser beams in the event of earth settlement or movement from a seismic event. During the fabrication of the target chamber the sphericity tolerances had to be addressed for the individual plates. Procedures were developed for forming, edge preparation and welding of individual plates. Construction plans were developed to allow the field construction of the target chamber to occur parallel to other NIF construction activities. This

  19. Impact of drought on wildfires in Iberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia M.; DaCamara, Carlos; Sousa, Pedro; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2015-04-01

    Southern European countries, and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in particular, have been vastly affected by summer wildfires (Trigo et al., 2013). This condition is hampered by the frequent warm and dry meteorological conditions found in summer which play a significant role in the triggering and spreading of wildfires. These meteorological conditions are also particularly important for the onset and end of drought periods, a phenomenon that has recurrently affected the IP (Gouveia et al., 2012). Moreover, the IP corresponds to one of the most sensitive areas to current and future climate change, and recent and future trends towards a dryer and warmer Mediterranean climate (Sousa et al., 2014) will tend to exacerbate these problems. The main scope of this study was to investigate the impact of drought on wildfires' burned areas in the IP. The objective was to examine the correlation between drought, as expressed by both the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010), and wildfire burned areas. The SPI and SPEI were both calculated for 4 large regions (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes were shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions (Trigo et al., 2013). In this study, the drought indices were determined for the time scales of 3 and 6 months for August and for 12 months in September, thus representing the summer and annual drought. The correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the 3 months SPEI and SPI relatively to the 6 and 12 time scales, which indicates that drought and fires relation is a small-size scale process. Moreover, the correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the Northern and Southwestern regions both for SPEI for 3 and 6

  20. Progress on LMJ targets for ignition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cherfils-Clerouin, C; Boniface, C; Bonnefille, M; Dattolo, E; Galmiche, D; Gauthier, P; Giorla, J; Laffite, S; Liberatore, S; Loiseau, P; Malinie, G; Masse, L; Masson-Laborde, P E; Monteil, M C; Poggi, F; Seytor, P; Wagon, F; Willien, J L, E-mail: catherine.cherfils@cea.f [CEA, DAM, DIF, F-91297 Arpajon (France)

    2009-12-15

    Targets designed to produce ignition on the Laser Megajoule (LMJ) are being simulated in order to set specifications for target fabrication. The LMJ experimental plans include the attempt of ignition and burn of an ICF capsule with 160 laser beams, delivering up to 1.4 MJ and 380 TW. New targets needing reduced laser energy with only a small decrease in robustness have then been designed for this purpose. Working specifically on the coupling efficiency parameter, i.e. the ratio of the energy absorbed by the capsule to the laser energy, has led to the design of a rugby-ball shaped cocktail hohlraum; with these improvements, a target based on the 240-beam A1040 capsule can be included in the 160-beam laser energy-power space. Robustness evaluations of these different targets shed light on critical points for ignition, which can trade off by tightening some specifications or by preliminary experimental and numerical tuning experiments.

  1. Progress on LMJ targets for ignition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cherfils-Clerouin, C; Boniface, C; Bonnefille, M; Fremerye, P; Galmiche, D; Gauthier, P; Giorla, J; Lambert, F; Laffite, S; Liberatore, S; Loiseau, P; Malinie, G; Masse, L; Masson-Laborde, P E; Monteil, M C; Poggi, F; Seytor, P; Wagon, F; Willien, J L, E-mail: catherine.cherfils@cea.f [CEA, DAM, DIF, F-91297 Arpajon (France)

    2010-08-01

    Targets designed to produce ignition on the Laser MegaJoule are presented. The LMJ experimental plans include the attempt of ignition and burn of an ICF capsule with 160 laser beams, delivering up to 1.4MJ and 380TW. New targets needing reduced laser energy with only a small decrease in robustness have then been designed for this purpose. Working specifically on the coupling efficiency parameter, i.e. the ratio of the energy absorbed by the capsule to the laser energy, has led to the design of a rugby-shaped cocktail hohlraum. 1D and 2D robustness evaluations of these different targets shed light on critical points for ignition, that can be traded off by tightening some specifications or by preliminary experimental and numerical tuning experiments.

  2. Thermonuclear microdetonation macron accelerator for impact ignition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winterberg, F.

    2008-03-01

    It is proposed to replace the expensive ~150 kJ petawatt laser as a means for the fast ignition of a highly compressed dense DT target by a small flyer plate propelled to high velocities by a thermonuclear microdetonation ignited at one end of a super-pinch. It appears that this can most efficiently be done with the previously proposed modification of the dense plasma focus device, adding a high voltage relativistic electron beam emitting diode inside the coaxial plasma focus discharge tube, igniting at the end of the plasma focus pinch column a thermonuclear detonation wave, propagating in the axial direction and accelerating at the end of the pinch a flyer plate to a velocity of 103 km s-1.

  3. Improving the ignition quality of fuels

    KAUST Repository

    Sarathy, Mani

    2017-06-08

    Provided herein are compounds and methods of producing compounds for improving ignition quality and combustion efficiency of fuels, for example fossil fuels. In various aspects we generate highly oxygenated compounds from hydrocarbon feedstocks. The feedstock can be a branched alkane or n-alkane having a chain length greater than or equal to 6, a cycloalkane with a 5 or 6 membered ring structure, or a alkylated cycloalkane with 5 or more carbon atoms. The reactant can be fed in the gas- phase to a partial oxidation reactor (with or without a catalyst), and at a fixed temperature, mixture composition, and residence time. The reactant can be converted to a mixture of products including keto hydroperoxides, diketo hydroperoxides, keto dihydroperoxides, hydroperoxyl cyclic ethers, and alkenyl hydroperoxides. The compounds are inherently unstable and can quickly decompose to highly reactive radical species that can be used to improve the ignition quality of a fuel and advance ignition in an engine.

  4. Ignition of THKP and TKP pyrotechnic powders :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maharrey, Sean P.; Erikson, William W; Highley, Aaron M.; Wiese-Smith, Deneille; Kay, Jeffrey J

    2014-03-01

    We have conducted Simultaneous Thermogravimetric Modulated Beam Mass Spectrometry (STMBMS) experiments on igniter/actuator pyrotechnic powders to characterize the reactive processes controlling the ignition and combustion behavior of these materials. The experiments showed a complex, interactive reaction manifold involving over ten reaction pathways. A reduced dimensionality reaction manifold was developed from the detailed 10-step manifold and is being incorporated into existing predictive modeling codes to simulate the performance of pyrotechnic powders for NW component development. The results from development of the detailed reaction manifold and reduced manifold are presented. The reduced reaction manifold has been successfully used by SNL/NM modelers to predict thermal ignition events in small-scale testing, validating our approach and improving the capability of predictive models.

  5. Target Visualization at the National Ignition Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potter, Daniel Abraham [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    2011-01-01

    As the National Ignition Facility continues its campaign to achieve ignition, new methods and tools will be required to measure the quality of the targets used to achieve this goal. Techniques have been developed to measure target surface features using a phase-shifting diffraction interferometer and Leica Microsystems confocal microscope. Using these techniques we are able to produce a detailed view of the shell surface, which in turn allows us to refine target manufacturing and cleaning processes. However, the volume of data produced limits the methods by which this data can be effectively viewed by a user. This paper introduces an image-based visualization system for data exploration of target shells at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. It aims to combine multiple image sets into a single visualization to provide a method of navigating the data in ways that are not possible with existing tools.

  6. The contemporary scale and context of wildfire in Hawai'i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clay Trauernicht; Elizabeth Pickett; Christian Giardina; Creighton M. Litton; Susan Cordell; Andrew Beavers

    2015-01-01

    Wildfire is a major threat to natural resources and native species in Hawai'i, but the frequency and extent of wildfires across the archipelago has not been well quantified. Our objective was to summarize the available wildfire data for Hawai‘i and synthesize the social and ecological dimensions of wildfire drivers, impacts, and management responses. We...

  7. Methane and Ethanol Ignition Behind Shock Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Matveeva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Toughening environmental standards for concentration of emitting greenhouse gas (GHG and soot particulates in combustion of the hydrocarbon fuels initiate development of new fuels. One of the perspectives for development is the partial or complete replacement of fossil fuels with biofuel. Alcohols and, in particular, ethanol are the promising types of biofuel. A number of publications experimentally show the use of ethanol as an additive to the traditional fuels in internal combustion engines with forced ignition and self-ignition. The paper carries out an experimental study of the ignition of stoichiometric mixtures of methane / oxygen, ethanol / oxygen and methane / ethanol / oxygen behind shock waves. The experiments were conducted in a shock tube of standard construction behind reflected shock waves in the range of temperatures and pressures, respectively, 1140-1825 K and 4.82-5.98 bars. The temperature dependences of the ignition delays were measured for mixtures of 3.3% CH4 + 6.7% O2 + Ar, 2.5% C2H5OH + 7.5% O2 + Ar, 1.5% CH4 + 1.5% C2H5OH + 7.5% O2 + Ar. It is shown that the addition of ethanol to the methane / oxygen mixture reduces a value of the ignition delays. A kinetic simulation of the ignition process of the combustible compositions under study was carried out. The experimental data were used to try out the kinetic mechanisms from the literature. For one mechanism, we failed to reach a good agreement with experimental data for all three variants of the mixtures studied. The paper analyses the change in the kinetic ways of ethanol consumption and formation in combustion of the ethanol-methane mixture and shows a disagreement between the existing kinetic mechanisms. The new experimental data obtained in the paper can further help when developing the kinetic mechanisms of combustion of various traditional fuel mixtures with alcohols, in particular, with ethanol.

  8. Plasma igniter for internal combustion engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, D. J.; Breshears, R. R. (Inventor)

    1978-01-01

    An igniter for the air/fuel mixture used in the cylinders of an internal combustion engine is described. A conventional spark is used to initiate the discharge of a large amount of energy stored in a capacitor. A high current discharge of the energy in the capacitor switched on by a spark discharge produces a plasma and a magnetic field. The resultant combined electromagnetic current and magnetic field force accelerates the plasma deep into the combustion chamber thereby providing an improved ignition of the air/fuel mixture in the chamber.

  9. National Ignition Facility project acquisition plan revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clobes, A.R.

    1996-10-01

    The purpose of this National Ignition Facility Acquisition Plan is to describe the overall procurement strategy planned for the National Ignition Facility M Project. It was prepared for the NIP Prood Office by the NIF Procurement Manager.

  10. Aqueous Ethanol Ignition and Engine Studies, Phase I

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    Our objectives were to design a micro-dilution tunnel for monitoring engine emissions, measure ignition temperature and heat release from ethanol-water-air mixtures on platinum, and initiate a computational fluid dynamics model of a catalytic igniter...

  11. Low Energy Electronic Ignition System for NOFBX Thrusters Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose to develop a miniature, low RF noise ignition module for NOFBX propulsion systems. This ignition module is designed utilizing unique properties of the...

  12. Evaluation of the New Mexico ignition interlock program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    This Evaluation of the New Mexico Ignition Interlock Program begins by summarizing the development of : alcohol ignition interlock devices, laws, and programs during the past 22 years. It then reviews the laws that : were written in New Mexico from 1...

  13. Highly Durable Catalysts for Ignition of Advanced Monopropellants Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Monopropellants are readily ignited or decomposed over a bed of solid catalyst. A serious limitation of existing catalysts in the ignition of advanced...

  14. Effect of Oxygen Concentration on Autogenous Ignition Temperature and Pneumatic Impact Ignitability of Nonmetallic Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sarah

    2009-01-01

    Extensive test data exist on the ignitability of nonmetallic materials in pure oxygen, but these characteristics are not as well understood for lesser oxygen concentrations. In this study, autogenous ignition temperature testing and pneumatic impact testing were used to better understand the effects of oxygen concentration on ignition of nonmetallic materials. Tests were performed using oxygen concentrations of 21, 34, 45, and 100 %. The following materials were tested: PTFE Teflon(Registered Trademark), Buna-N, Silicone, Zytel(Registered Trademark) 42, Viton(registered Trademark) A, and Vespel(Registered Trademark) SP-21.

  15. Qualification of Magnesium/Teflon/Viton Pyrotechnic Composition Used in Rocket Motors Ignition System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana de Barros

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The application of fluoropolymers in high-energy-release pyrotechnic compositions is common in the space and defense areas. Pyrotechnic compositions of magnesium/Teflon/Viton are widely used in military flares and pyrogen igniters for igniting the solid propellant of a rocket motor. Pyrotechnic components are considered high-risk products as they may cause catastrophic accidents if initiated or ignited inadvertently. To reduce the hazards involved in the handling, storage and transportation of these devices, the magnesium/Teflon/Viton composition was subjected to various sensitivity tests, DSC and had its stability and compatibility tested with other materials. This composition obtained satisfactory results in all the tests, which qualifies it as safe for production, handling, use, storage and transportation.

  16. Assessing fire risk in the wildland-urban interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Haight; David T. Cleland; Roger B. Hammer; Volker B. Radeloff; T. Scott Rupp

    2004-01-01

    Identifying areas of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) that are prone to severe wildfire is an important step in prioritizing fire prevention and preparedness projects. Our objective is to determine at a regional scale the relative risk of severe wildfire in WUI areas and the numbers of people and houses in high-risk areas. For a study area in northern lower Michigan...

  17. Urban Sprawl and Wildfire Danger along the Wildland-Urban Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, S. V.; Kafatos, M.; Myoung, B.

    2015-12-01

    Urban sprawl has created an extensive wildland-urban interface (WUI) where urban areas encroach well into the wilderness that is highly susceptible to wildfire danger. To monitor urbanization along WUI, an innovative approach based on the Dense Sampling Method with the Rosette Transform (DSM-RT) enables the use of satellite scatterometer data to obtain observations without gaps in time and in space at 1-km posting in the decade of the 2000s. To explain how the satellite signature processed with DSM-RT represents physical urban infrastructures, the case of the mega city of Los Angeles is presented with the DSM-RT satellite image overlaid on three-dimensional buildings and road network from the commercial and industrial core of the city to the residential suburb extended into the wild land. Then the rate of urban development in the 2000s in terms of physical urban infrastructure change, rather than the arbitrary boundary defined by administrative or legislative measures, for 14 cities along the San Gabriel Mountains in California are evaluated to rank the degree of urbanization along the local WUI, which may increase the probability of fire ignitions and fire impacts. Moreover, the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from the MODIS Aqua satellite is used to estimate live fuel moisture (LFM) conditions around the WUI to evaluate fire danger levels, which are consistent to the specific definition currently used by fire agencies in making real-life decisions for fire preparedness pro-actively before the fire occurrence. As an example, a map of EVI-derived LFM for the Colby Fire in 2014 showing a complex spatial pattern of LFM reduction along an extensive WUI illustrates satellite advantage in monitoring LFM over the vast wild land in Southern California. Since the method is based on global satellite data, it is applicable to regions prone to wildfires across the world.

  18. A global distribution of the ignitability component of flammability based on climatic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karali, Anna; Fyllas, Nikolaos M.; Hatzaki, Maria; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Nastos, Panagiotis

    2017-04-01

    Fire regime is the result of complex interactions among ignition, topography, weather and vegetation. Even though the influence of vegetation varies regionally, it remains the only component that can be directly managed in order to reduce the negative impacts of wildland fires. Therefore, reliable information on vegetation flammability is required, making it one of the essential components of fire risk assessment and management. Specific Leaf Area (SLA [cm2 g-1], the ratio of leaf area to leaf dry mass) has received little attention regarding its relationship with ignitability and, thus, flammability. However, recent studies on a regional scale have shown that leaves of higher SLA are more ignitable. Thus, in the framework of the current study, the ignitability, as a function of SLA on global scale, is explored. In order to calculate SLA, a linear regression model combining SLA and climate data has been used (Maire et al., 2015). The climate data used for its calculation include the maximum monthly fractional sunshine duration, the maximum monthly temperature and the number of days with daily mean temperature above 0°C for each grid cell, obtained from the ERA-Interim gridded observations database. Subsequently, the ignitability component of flammability is calculated on a global scale using a bivariate regression relationship with SLA based on experimental burns of leaf materials (Grootemaat et al., 2015). The global distribution of ignitability can subsequently be combined with fire weather index (FWI) values for the development of an integrated index of forest fire vulnerability for the current and future climate, using CMIP5 climate model outputs. This will enable the integration of functional biogeographic data with widely applied fire risk assessment methodologies at regional to global spatial scales.

  19. 14 CFR 25.981 - Fuel tank ignition prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel tank ignition prevention. 25.981 Section 25.981 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION... ignition prevention. (a) No ignition source may be present at each point in the fuel tank or fuel tank...

  20. 14 CFR 23.1165 - Engine ignition systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... supplemented by a generator that is automatically available as an alternate source of electrical energy to... ignition. (e) Each turbine engine ignition system must be independent of any electrical circuit that is not... generators must be large enough to meet the simultaneous demands of the engine ignition system and the...

  1. An experimental investigation of iso-octane ignition phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walton, S.M.; He, X.; Zigler, B.T.; Wooldridge, M.S.; Atreya, A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Michigan, 2350 Hayward St., Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2125 (United States)

    2007-08-15

    High-speed digital imaging has been used in rapid compression facility (RCF) studies to investigate ignition phenomena of iso-octane/air mixtures. Sequential images were captured for each experiment. The results indicate the existence of two ignition regimes. In one domain, ignition is rapid, typically less than 76 {mu}s, and ignition occurs simultaneously throughout the test volume. In the other domain, reaction fronts form and propagate within the test volume prior to volumetric ignition. The data span equivalence ratios from {phi}=0.20 to 1.98, with inert/O{sub 2} gas ratios from 1.38 to 5.89, pressures from 8.7 to 16.6 atm, and temperatures from 903 to 1020 K. The transition between the two regimes is discussed in the context of the mixture composition and experimental conditions. The analysis shows that the fuel mole fraction is a key parameter dictating the boundary between the modes of ignition. Below a critical mole fraction limit, volumetric ignition is observed; above the critical limit, reaction fronts are consistently present prior to volumetric ignition. The ignition delay times for both ignition regimes are well reproduced using a homogeneous simulation with detailed reaction chemistry, when the state conditions are modified to account for the presence of the reaction fronts. The results are discussed in terms of proposed reaction chemistry, ignition theory, and previous studies of iso-octane ignition. (author)

  2. 40 CFR 261.21 - Characteristic of ignitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Characteristic of ignitability. 261.21... (CONTINUED) IDENTIFICATION AND LISTING OF HAZARDOUS WASTE Characteristics of Hazardous Waste § 261.21 Characteristic of ignitability. (a) A solid waste exhibits the characteristic of ignitability if a representative...

  3. Wildfires Dynamics in Siberian Larch Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgenii I. Ponomarev

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Wildfire number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45°–73° N were studied based on NOAA/AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Terra/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data and field measurements for the period 1996–2015. In addition, fire return interval (FRI along the south-north transect was analyzed. Both the number of forest fires and the size of the burned area increased during recent decades (p < 0.05. Significant correlations were found between forest fires, burned areas and air temperature (r = 0.5 and drought index (The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI (r = −0.43. Within larch stands along the transect, wildfire frequency was strongly correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.91. Fire danger period length decreased linearly from south to north along the transect.  Fire return interval increased from 80 years at 62° N to 200 years at the Arctic Circle (66°33’ N, and to about 300 years near the northern limit of closed forest stands (about 71°+ N. That increase was negatively correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = −0.95.

  4. Stormwater contaminant loading following southern California wildfires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Eric D; Brown, Jeffrey S; Hogue, Terri S; Burke, Megan P; Kinoshita, Alicia

    2012-11-01

    Contaminant loading associated with stormwater runoff from recently burned areas is poorly understood, despite the fact that it has the potential to affect downstream water quality. The goal of the present study is to assess regional patterns of runoff and contaminant loading from wildfires in urban fringe areas of southern California. Postfire stormwater runoff was sampled from five wildfires that each burned between 115 and 658 km(2) of natural open space between 2003 and 2009. Between two and five storm events were sampled per site over the first one to two years following the fires for basic constituents, metals, nutrients, total suspended solids, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Results were compared to data from 16 unburned natural areas and six developed sites. Mean copper, lead, and zinc flux (kg/km(2)) were between 112- and 736-fold higher from burned catchments and total phosphorus was up to 921-fold higher compared to unburned natural areas. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon flux was four times greater from burned areas than from adjacent urban areas. Ash fallout on nearby unburned watersheds also resulted in a threefold increase in metals and PAHs. Attenuation of elevated concentration and flux values appears to be driven mainly by rainfall magnitude. Contaminant loading from burned landscapes has the potential to be a substantial contribution to the total annual load to downstream areas in the first several years following fires. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  5. Is Managed Wildfire Protecting Yosemite National Park from Drought?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisrame, G. F. S.; Thompson, S. E.; Stephens, S.; Collins, B.; Kelly, M.; Tague, N.

    2016-12-01

    Fire suppression in many dry forest types has left a legacy of dense, homogeneous forests. Such landscapes have high water demands and fuel loads, and when burned can result in catastrophically large fires. These characteristics are undesirable in the face of projected warming and drying in the Western US. This project explores the potential of managed wildfire - a forest management strategy in which fires caused by lightning are allowed to burn naturally as long as certain safety parameters are met - to reverse the effects of fire suppression. The Illilouette Creek Basin in Yosemite National Park has experienced 40 years of managed wildfire, reducing forest cover and increasing meadow and shrubland areas. We have collected evidence from field measurements and remote sensing which suggest that managed wildfire increases landscape and hydrologic heterogeneity, and likely improves resilience to disturbances such as fire and drought. Vegetation maps created from aerial photos show an increase in landscape heterogeneity following the introduction of managed wildfire. Soil moisture observations during the drought years of 2013-2016 suggest that transitions from dense forest to shrublands or meadows can increase summer soil moisture. In the winter of 2015-2016, snow depth measurements showed deeper spring snowpacks in burned areas compared to dense forests. Our study provides a unique view of relatively long-term effects of managed wildfire on vegetation change, ecohydrology, and drought resistance. Understanding these effects is increasingly important as the use of managed wildfire becomes more widely accepted, and as the likelihood of both drought and wildfire increases.

  6. Effect of two successive wildfires in Pinus halepensis stands of central Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Spanos

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available We estimated differences, five years after a wildfire, in soil and vegetation between Pinus halepensis stands that were once burnt (1998 and stands that were burnt twice in a short time interval (1995 and 1998, in the area of Penteli, central Greece. The parameters monitored were the physical and chemical attributes of upper soil layer and the vegetation composition, density and height. The results showed that five years after the wildfire, soil pH did not differ between areas burnt once and twice, while the organic matter was higher in the once-burnt areas. The vegetation composition was similar in the two areas and the dominant species were those pre-existing the fire. On the contrary, vegetation density was considerably lower in the twice-burnt areas. The height of woody species oscillated in the same levels in the two areas. The plant community was composed mainly by resprouting species, like Quercus coccifera, Pistacia lentiscus, or Phillyrea latifolia, and less individuals from seed-regenerated species, like Pinus halepensis, Cistus monspeliensis, and C. creticus. It is suggested that the recurrence of wildfire affected negatively the ecosystem attributes, and contributed to the increased risk of degradation.

  7. Premature ignition of a rocket motor.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, Darlene Ruth

    2010-10-01

    During preparation for a rocket sled track (RST) event, there was an unexpected ignition of the zuni rocket motor (10/9/08). Three Sandia staff and a contractor were involved in the accident; the contractor was seriously injured and made full recovery. The data recorder battery energized the low energy initiator in the rocket.

  8. Ignitability of materials in transitional heating regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Dietenberger

    2004-01-01

    Piloted ignition behavior of materials, particularly wood products, during transitions between heating regimes is measured and modeled in a cone calorimetry (ISO 5660) heating environment. These include (1) effect of material thickness, density, moisture content, and paint coating variations on thermal response characteristics, (2) effect of fire retardant treatment...

  9. A Statistical Representation of Pyrotechnic Igniter Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shuyue; Cooper, Marcia

    2017-06-01

    The output of simplified pyrotechnic igniters for research investigations is statistically characterized by monitoring the post-ignition external flow field with Schlieren imaging. Unique to this work is a detailed quantification of all measurable manufacturing parameters (e.g., bridgewire length, charge cavity dimensions, powder bed density) and associated shock-motion variability in the tested igniters. To demonstrate experimental precision of the recorded Schlieren images and developed image processing methodologies, commercial exploding bridgewires using wires of different parameters were tested. Finally, a statistically-significant population of manufactured igniters were tested within the Schlieren arrangement resulting in a characterization of the nominal output. Comparisons between the variances measured throughout the manufacturing processes and the calculated output variance provide insight into the critical device phenomena that dominate performance. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  10. Plasma ignition for medium calibre ammunition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driel, C.A. van; Schilt, A.; Simor, M.; Schaffers, P.; Weise, T.

    2012-01-01

    Gun performance is usually affected by the operating temperature of the ammunition or weapon. This is caused by several factors, amongst which the temperature dependency of the propellant ignition and combustion processes. Compensation of temperature effects on weapon or ammunition performance is

  11. Catalytic bi-propellant ignition technology development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouquet, F.; Mayer, A.; Snijders, H.; Brauers, B.

    2010-01-01

    For the next generation high thrust engine Aerospace Propulsion Products (APP) and TNO Defence Security and Safety are developing technology for a high-power innovative restartable igniter working on 90% hydrogen peroxide and a liquid or gaseous fuel (ethanol, methane or hydrogen). This development

  12. Impacts assessment for the National Ignition Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bay Area Economics

    1996-12-01

    This report documents the economic and other impacts that will be created by the National Ignition Facility (NIF) construction and ongoing operation, as well as the impacts that may be created by new technologies that may be developed as a result of NIF development and operation.

  13. Neutron generation from impact fast ignition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watari, T; Sakaiya, T; Azechi, H; Nakai, M; Shiraga, H; Shigemori, K; Hosoda, H; Saito, H; Arikawa, Y; Sakawa, Y; Fujioka, S; Hironaka, Y; Murakami, M [Institute of Laser Engineering, Osaka univ. (Japan); Karasik, M; Gardner, J; Bates, J; Colombant, D; Weber, J; Obenschain, S [Naval Research Laboratory, Washington DC (United States); Aglitsky, Y [Science Applications International Corporation, McLean, Virginia (United States)], E-mail: twatari@ile.osaka-u.ac.jp (and others)

    2008-05-15

    We have proposed a new ignition scheme of Fast Ignition, called 'Impact Fast Ignition (IFI)', in which a compressed fuel is ignited by impact collision of a fragment of separately imploded fuel. We have started experiments that used CD colliding foils as the fundamental experiment and integrated experiment of the IFI. In the fundamental experiment, we used targets which are consists of two CD foils (thickness of 20 {mu}m) with a 600 {mu}m separation. We have irradiated one of the CD foils by laser beams of the energy of 2 kJ in total and accelerated. The accelerated CD foil collides with another foil, and neutrons were generated by the nuclear fusion reaction on the heated foil. In this experiment, we measured the neutron yield of 10{sup 6}. In the integrated experiment, we used CD shell targets with a gold cone which had a hemispherical impactor. The shell was imploded using 9 beams and the impactor was accelerated using 3 beams of the GEKKO XII laser system. The laser energy was 350 J per beam. Observed maximum neutron yield was 2 x 10{sup 6}. This yield was 80 times as large as that without impactor. We will present the experimental details and results.

  14. Birth weight following pregnancy during the 2003 Southern California wildfires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holstius, David M; Reid, Colleen E; Jesdale, Bill M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel

    2012-09-01

    In late October 2003, a series of wildfires exposed urban populations in Southern California to elevated levels of air pollution over several weeks. Previous research suggests that short-term hospital admissions for respiratory outcomes increased specifically as a result of these fires. We assessed the impact of a wildfire event during pregnancy on birth weight among term infants. Using records for singleton term births delivered to mothers residing in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) during 2001-2005 (n = 886,034), we compared birth weights from pregnancies that took place entirely before or after the wildfire event (n = 747,590) with those where wildfires occurred during the first (n = 60,270), second (n = 39,435), or third (n = 38,739) trimester. The trimester-specific effects of wildfire exposure were estimated using a fixed-effects regression model with several maternal characteristics included as covariates. Compared with pregnancies before and after the wildfires, mean birth weight was estimated to be 7.0 g lower [95% confidence interval (CI): -11.8, -2.2] when the wildfire occurred during the third trimester, 9.7 g lower when it occurred during the second trimester (95% CI: -14.5, -4.8), and 3.3 g lower when it occurred during the first trimester (95% CI: -7.2, 0.6). Pregnancy during the 2003 Southern California wildfires was associated with slightly reduced average birth weight among infants exposed in utero. The extent and increasing frequency of wildfire events may have implications for infant health and development.

  15. Effects of season on ignition of live wildland fuels using the forced ignition and flame spread test apparatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. McAllister; D. R. Weise

    2017-01-01

    An understanding of what variables affect the ignition of live wildland fuels is crucial to predicting crown fire spread, the most poorly understood type of wildland fire. Ignition tests were performed over the course of an entire year for ten species (three species in year one, seven in year two) to evaluate seasonal changes in flammability. Ignition delay and mass...

  16. Recent results of full-spatial scale modeling of fast ignition and shock ignition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonge, J.; May, J.; Mori, W. B.; Fiuza, F.; Marti, M.; Fonseca, R. A.; Davies, J. R.; Silva, L. O.

    2010-11-01

    We show recent results of full-spatial scale modeling of fast ignition and shock ignition, from both full-PIC and the recently developed hybrid-PIC capability of OSIRIS 2.0. Our results show full-scale modeling of fast ignition over full density and time scales, where laser absorption, electron beam divergence, and energy deposition in the compressed core will be addressed in a self-consistent manner. Full-PIC and hybrid-PIC simulations of isolated targets will be presented, illustrating the importance of this type of modeling in order to accurately infer the beam divergence and transport properties. We will also demonstrate the possibility of performing full-scale simulations of shock ignition with the new hybrid-PIC capability, using compressed target profiles from hydrodynamic simulations, and studying the self-consistent laser absorption, electron transport, and energy deposition that can lead to the generation of the shock required for ignition. Work supported by DOE under DE-FC02-04-ER54789 and DE-FG52-09NA29552, and NSF under NSF-Phy-0904039, FCT (Portugal), and the HiPER project. Simulations performed on Hoffman at UCLA, Thresher at SDSC, and Intrepid at ANL supported by Incite grant FastIgnitionPIC.

  17. Ignition and explosion of nanopowders: something new under the dust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufaud, Olivier; Vignes, Alexis; Henry, François; Perrin, Laurent; Bouillard, Jacques

    2011-07-01

    This work deals with the study of ignition and explosion characteristics of nanoparticles. It has been carried out on various powders: zinc, aluminum, carbon blacks... Specific behaviours have been highlighted during the first phase of this project (Nanosafe 2). For instance, it has been demonstrated that there mainly exists two combustion regimes that are either kinetically controlled, for small size particles, or diffusion controlled, for large size particles (generally with diameters greater than 1 or 2 μm). It has been found that as the particle size decreases, minimum ignition temperature and minimum ignition energy decrease (even lower than 1 mJ), indicating higher potential inflammation and explosion risks for metallic nanopowders. Moreover, the presence of agglomerates in the nanopowders could modify their reactivity. Thus, the explosion severity of Al powders tends to increase as the specific surface area decreases, before reaching a peak for 1 μm particle size. These results are essential for industries producing or handling nanopowders in order to propose/design new and proper prevention and protection means. Nevertheless, the validity of the classical characterization tools with regard to nanopowders should be discussed. For example, the experimental laminar flame velocity of Al dusts has been compared to a theoretical one, determined by Huang's model, which assumes that the propagation of the flame is run mainly by conduction. It has shown a good agreement. However, under certain conditions, the Al flame propagation is expected to be mainly conducted by radiation. Two hypotheses can then be made. On the one hand, it can be assumed that the 20 L sphere probably disturbs the flame propagation and thermal mechanisms by absorbing radiation (wall quenching effect). On the other hand, it has been observed, thanks to the use of a high speed camera that the preheating zone is smaller for some nanopowders than for micro-particles (figure below). It could

  18. Ignition and timing a guide to rebuilding, repair and replacement

    CERN Document Server

    Beever, Colin

    2015-01-01

    An essential guide to ignition and timing, for classic car owners and restorers. Aimed at both keen amateurs and professionals alike, Ignition and Timing covers the history and evolution of the automotive ignition system, and how to fit, modify and maintain your system for optimum timing and maximum performance. Topics covered include understanding and fault-testing the coil ignition system; post-war distributors and aftermarket systems; how to fit electronic ignitions and modify the distributor, including twin-point distributors; rebuilding and maintenance; Lucas, Delco and Bosch systems

  19. Predicting sediment delivery from debris flows after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyman, Petter; Smith, Hugh G.; Sherwin, Christopher B.; Langhans, Christoph; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Sheridan, Gary J.

    2015-12-01

    Debris flows are an important erosion process in wildfire-prone landscapes. Predicting their frequency and magnitude can therefore be critical for quantifying risk to infrastructure, people and water resources. However, the factors contributing to the frequency and magnitude of events remain poorly understood, particularly in regions outside western USA. Against this background, the objectives of this study were to i) quantify sediment yields from post-fire debris flows in southeast Australian highlands and ii) model the effects of landscape attributes on debris flow susceptibility. Sediment yields from post-fire debris flows (113-294 t ha- 1) are 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than annual background erosion rates from undisturbed forests. Debris flow volumes ranged from 539 to 33,040 m3 with hillslope contributions of 18-62%. The distribution of erosion and deposition above the fan were related to a stream power index, which could be used to model changes in yield along the drainage network. Debris flow susceptibility was quantified with a logistic regression and an inventory of 315 debris flow fans deposited in the first year after two large wildfires (total burned area = 2919 km2). The differenced normalised burn ratio (dNBR or burn severity), local slope, radiative index of dryness (AI) and rainfall intensity (from rainfall radar) were significant predictors in a susceptibility model, which produced excellent results in terms identifying channels that were eroded by debris flows (Area Under Curve, AUC = 0.91). Burn severity was the strongest predictor in the model (AUC = 0.87 when dNBR is used as single predictor) suggesting that fire regimes are an important control on sediment delivery from these forests. The analysis showed a positive effect of AI on debris flow probability in landscapes where differences in moisture regimes due to climate are associated with large variation in soil hydraulic properties. Overall, the results from this study based in the

  20. Quantity, composition and water contamination potential of ash produced under different wildfire severities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santín, Cristina; Doerr, Stefan H; Otero, Xosé L; Chafer, Chris J

    2015-10-01

    Wildfires frequently threaten water quality through the transfer of eroded ash and soil into rivers and reservoirs. The ability to anticipate risks for water resources from wildfires is fundamental for implementing effective fire preparedness plans and post-fire mitigation measures. Here we present a new approach that allows quantifying the amount and characteristics of ash generated under different wildfire severities and its respective water contamination potential. This approach is applied to a wildfire in an Australian dry sclerophyll eucalypt forest, but can be adapted for use in other environments. The Balmoral fire of October 2013 affected 12,694 ha of Sydney's forested water supply catchment. It produced substantial ash loads that increased with fire severity, with 6, 16 and 34 Mg ha(-1) found in areas affected by low, high and extreme fire severity, respectively. Ash bulk density was also positively related to fire severity. The increase with fire severity in the total load and bulk density of the ash generated is mainly attributed to a combination of associated increases in (i) total amount of fuel affected by fire and (ii) contribution of charred mineral soil to the ash layer. Total concentrations of pollutants and nutrients in ash were mostly unrelated to fire severity and relatively low compared to values reported for wildfire ash in other environments (e.g. 4.0-7.3mg As kg(-1); 2.3-4.1 B mg kg(-1); 136-154 P mg kg(-1)). Solubility of the elements analysed was also low, less than 10% of the total concentration for all elements except for B (6-14%) and Na (30-50%). This could be related to a partial loss of soluble components by leaching and/or wind erosion before the ash sampling (10 weeks after the fire and before major ash mobilisation by water erosion). Even with their relatively low concentrations of potential pollutants, the substantial total ash loads found here represent a water contamination risk if transported into the hydrological network

  1. Discharge ignition behavior of the Space Station plasma contactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarver-Verhey, Timothy R.; Hamley, John A.

    1995-01-01

    Ignition testing of hollow cathode assemblies being developed for the Space Station plasma contactor system has been initiated to validate reliable multiple restart capability. An ignition approach was implemented that was derived from an earlier arcjet program that successfully demonstrated over 11,600 ignitions. For this, a test profile was developed to allow accelerated cyclic testing at expected operating conditions. To date, one hollow cathode assembly has been used to demonstrate multiple ignitions. A prototype hollow cathode assembly has achieved 3,615 successful ignitions at a nominal anode voltage of 18.0 V. During the ignition testing several parameters were investigated, of which the heater power and pre-heat time were the only parameters found to significantly impact ignition rate.

  2. Wildfire: distributed, Grid-enabled workflow construction and execution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Issac Praveen

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We observe two trends in bioinformatics: (i analyses are increasing in complexity, often requiring several applications to be run as a workflow; and (ii multiple CPU clusters and Grids are available to more scientists. The traditional solution to the problem of running workflows across multiple CPUs required programming, often in a scripting language such as perl. Programming places such solutions beyond the reach of many bioinformatics consumers. Results We present Wildfire, a graphical user interface for constructing and running workflows. Wildfire borrows user interface features from Jemboss and adds a drag-and-drop interface allowing the user to compose EMBOSS (and other programs into workflows. For execution, Wildfire uses GEL, the underlying workflow execution engine, which can exploit available parallelism on multiple CPU machines including Beowulf-class clusters and Grids. Conclusion Wildfire simplifies the tasks of constructing and executing bioinformatics workflows.

  3. Airborne Wide Area Imager for Wildfire Mapping and Detection Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — An advanced airborne imaging system for fire detection/mapping is proposed. The goal of the project is to improve control and management of wildfires in order to...

  4. Wildfire: It's Economic Impact on Grazing Livestock in Northern Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honeycutt, S.

    2015-12-01

    As the climate changes and Nevada experiences long severe drought, a key understanding of the economic impacts of wildfire on grazing livestock is essential in the assurance of livestock production in future management of Nevada's rangeland. The focus of this research is to determine the economic impact in the reduction of rangeland available for livestock grazing due to wildfires. The datasets utilized in this research are from 2007 & 2012 and include Bureau of Land Management wildfire, grazing allotments and herd management area geospatial data along with USDA Census of Agriculture, Inventory & Sales Information for cattle & calves, sheep & lambs, and goats. Presented in the results will be the direct, indirect, and induced economic effects of wildfires on rangeland production.

  5. Atmospheric Infrasound during a Large Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vance, Alexis; Elbing, Brian

    2017-11-01

    Numerous natural and manmade sources generate infrasound, including tornado producing storms, human heart, hurricanes, and volcanoes. Infrasound is currently being studied as part of Collaboration Leading Operational UAS Development for Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (CLOUD MAP), which is a multi-university collaboration focused on development and implementation of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and integration with sensors for atmospheric measurements. To support this effort a fixed infrasonic microphone located in Stillwater, Oklahoma has been monitoring atmospheric emissions since September of 2016. While severe storm systems is the primary focus of this work, the system also captures a wide range of infrasonic sources from distances in excess of 300 miles due to an acoustic ceiling and weak atmospheric absorption. The current presentation will focus on atmospheric infrasound observations during a large wildfire on the Kansas-Oklahoma border that occurred between March 6-22, 2017. This work was supported by NSF Grant 1539070.

  6. Entropy Generation Analysis of Wildfire Propagation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Guelpa

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Entropy generation is commonly applied to describe the evolution of irreversible processes, such as heat transfer and turbulence. These are both dominating phenomena in fire propagation. In this paper, entropy generation analysis is applied to a grassland fire event, with the aim of finding possible links between entropy generation and propagation directions. The ultimate goal of such analysis consists in helping one to overcome possible limitations of the models usually applied to the prediction of wildfire propagation. These models are based on the application of the superimposition of the effects due to wind and slope, which has proven to fail in various cases. The analysis presented here shows that entropy generation allows a detailed analysis of the landscape propagation of a fire and can be thus applied to its quantitative description.

  7. How to Ignite an Atmospheric Pressure Microwave Plasma Torch without Any Additional Igniters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leins, Martina; Gaiser, Sandra; Schulz, Andreas; Walker, Matthias; Schumacher, Uwe; Hirth, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    This movie shows how an atmospheric pressure plasma torch can be ignited by microwave power with no additional igniters. After ignition of the plasma, a stable and continuous operation of the plasma is possible and the plasma torch can be used for many different applications. On one hand, the hot (3,600 K gas temperature) plasma can be used for chemical processes and on the other hand the cold afterglow (temperatures down to almost RT) can be applied for surface processes. For example chemical syntheses are interesting volume processes. Here the microwave plasma torch can be used for the decomposition of waste gases which are harmful and contribute to the global warming but are needed as etching gases in growing industry sectors like the semiconductor branch. Another application is the dissociation of CO2. Surplus electrical energy from renewable energy sources can be used to dissociate CO2 to CO and O2. The CO can be further processed to gaseous or liquid higher hydrocarbons thereby providing chemical storage of the energy, synthetic fuels or platform chemicals for the chemical industry. Applications of the afterglow of the plasma torch are the treatment of surfaces to increase the adhesion of lacquer, glue or paint, and the sterilization or decontamination of different kind of surfaces. The movie will explain how to ignite the plasma solely by microwave power without any additional igniters, e.g., electric sparks. The microwave plasma torch is based on a combination of two resonators — a coaxial one which provides the ignition of the plasma and a cylindrical one which guarantees a continuous and stable operation of the plasma after ignition. The plasma can be operated in a long microwave transparent tube for volume processes or shaped by orifices for surface treatment purposes. PMID:25938699

  8. Improving Air Support for Wildfire Management in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    older aircraft and save the overhead from purchasing new, more advanced ones. Thus blame for the Station Fire escape and escalation falls on the...helicopter-to-fight- alaskan -blazes-1.1836360; The Associated Press, “Alaska-based Firefighters Head South to Help Fight Fires in the Western U.S...Wildfires- Alaska. Canadian and U.S. Alaskan crews fought wildfires in the others country in the summer of 2014, continuing the long standing trend of

  9. Obama administration outlines new strategy for wildfire season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendel, JoAnna

    2014-04-01

    As the wildfire season approaches, the Obama administration has released its new National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy, developed by federal, state, tribal, and community partners. The strategy outlines new approaches to maintain healthy `landscapes, prepare communities for the fire season, and better address the nation's fire threats. "Through more strategic coordination with local communities the National Cohesive Strategy will help us better protect 46 million homes in 70,000 communities from catastrophic wildfires," U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said.

  10. WIFIRE Data Model and Catalog for Wildfire Data and Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altintas, I.; Crawl, D.; Cowart, C.; Gupta, A.; Block, J.; de Callafon, R.

    2014-12-01

    The WIFIRE project (wifire.ucsd.edu) is building an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. WIFIRE may be used by wildfire management authorities in the future to predict wildfire rate of spread and direction, and assess the effectiveness of high-density sensor networks in improving fire and weather predictions. WIFIRE has created a data model for wildfire resources including sensed and archived data, sensors, satellites, cameras, modeling tools, workflows and social information including Twitter feeds. This data model and associated wildfire resource catalog includes a detailed description of the HPWREN sensor network, SDG&E's Mesonet, and NASA MODIS. In addition, the WIFIRE data-model describes how to integrate the data from multiple heterogeneous sources to provide detailed fire-related information. The data catalog describes 'Observables' captured by each instrument using multiple ontologies including OGC SensorML and NASA SWEET. Observables include measurements such as wind speed, air temperature, and relative humidity, as well as their accuracy and resolution. We have implemented a REST service for publishing to and querying from the catalog using Web Application Description Language (WADL). We are creating web-based user interfaces and mobile device Apps that use the REST interface for dissemination to wildfire modeling community and project partners covering academic, private, and government laboratories while generating value to emergency officials and the general public. Additionally, the Kepler scientific workflow system is instrumented to interact with this data catalog to access real-time streaming and archived wildfire data and stream it into dynamic data-driven wildfire models at scale.

  11. Measuring the effect of fuel treatments on forest carbon using landscape risk analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Ager

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Wildfire simulation modelling was used to examine whether fuel reduction treatments can potentially reduce future wildfire emissions and provide carbon benefits. In contrast to previous reports, the current study modelled landscape scale effects of fuel treatments on fire spread and intensity, and used a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire effects on carbon pools to account for stochastic wildfire occurrence. The study area was a 68 474 ha watershed located on the Fremont-Winema National Forest in southeastern Oregon, USA. Fuel reduction treatments were simulated on 10% of the watershed (19% of federal forestland. We simulated 30 000 wildfires with random ignition locations under both treated and untreated landscapes to estimate the change in burn probability by flame length class resulting from the treatments. Carbon loss functions were then calculated with the Forest Vegetation Simulator for each stand in the study area to quantify change in carbon as a function of flame length. We then calculated the expected change in carbon from a random ignition and wildfire as the sum of the product of the carbon loss and the burn probabilities by flame length class. The expected carbon difference between the non-treatment and treatment scenarios was then calculated to quantify the effect of fuel treatments. Overall, the results show that the carbon loss from implementing fuel reduction treatments exceeded the expected carbon benefit associated with lowered burn probabilities and reduced fire severity on the treated landscape. Thus, fuel management activities resulted in an expected net loss of carbon immediately after treatment. However, the findings represent a point in time estimate (wildfire immediately after treatments, and a temporal analysis with a probabilistic framework used here is needed to model carbon dynamics over the life cycle of the fuel treatments. Of particular importance is the long-term balance between emissions from the

  12. Integrated thermodynamic model for ignition target performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Springer P.T.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available We have derived a 3-dimensional synthetic model for NIF implosion conditions, by predicting and optimizing fits to a broad set of x-ray and nuclear diagnostics obtained on each shot. By matching x-ray images, burn width, neutron time-of-flight ion temperature, yield, and fuel ρr, we obtain nearly unique constraints on conditions in the hotspot and fuel in a model that is entirely consistent with the observables. This model allows us to determine hotspot density, pressure, areal density (ρr, total energy, and other ignition-relevant parameters not available from any single diagnostic. This article describes the model and its application to National Ignition Facility (NIF tritium–hydrogen–deuterium (THD and DT implosion data, and provides an explanation for the large yield and ρr degradation compared to numerical code predictions.

  13. Ignitability and explosibility of gases and vapors

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Tingguang

    2015-01-01

    The book provides a systematic view on flammability and a collection of solved engineering problems in the fields of dilution and purge, mine gas safety, clean burning safety and gas suppression modeling. For the first time, fundamental principles of energy conservation are used to develop theoretical flammability diagrams and are then explored to understand various safety-related mixing problems. This provides the basis for a fully-analytical solution to any flammability problem. Instead of the traditional view that flammability is a fundamental material property, here flammability is discovered to be a result of the explosibility of air and the ignitability of fuel, or a process property. By exploring the more fundamental concepts of explosibility and ignitability, the safety targets of dilution and purge can be better defined and utilized for guiding safe operations in process safety. This book provides various engineering approaches to mixture flammability, benefiting not only the safety students, but al...

  14. Laser-plasma interactions for fast ignition

    CERN Document Server

    Kemp, A J; Debayle, A; Johzaki, T; Mori, W B; Patel, P K; Sentoku, Y; Silva, L O

    2013-01-01

    In the electron-driven fast-ignition approach to inertial confinement fusion, petawatt laser pulses are required to generate MeV electrons that deposit several tens of kilojoules in the compressed core of an imploded DT shell. We review recent progress in the understanding of intense laser plasma interactions (LPI) relevant to fast ignition. Increases in computational and modeling capabilities, as well as algorithmic developments have led to enhancement in our ability to perform multi-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of LPI at relevant scales. We discuss the physics of the interaction in terms of laser absorption fraction, the laser-generated electron spectra, divergence, and their temporal evolution. Scaling with irradiation conditions such as laser intensity are considered, as well as the dependence on plasma parameters. Different numerical modeling approaches and configurations are addressed, providing an overview of the modeling capabilities and limitations. In addition, we discuss the compa...

  15. Transport Simulations for Fast Ignition on NIF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strozzi, D J; Tabak, M; Grote, D P; Cohen, B I; Shay, H D; Town, R J; Kemp, A J; Key, M

    2009-10-26

    We are designing a full hydro-scale cone-guided, indirect-drive FI coupling experiment, for NIF, with the ARC-FIDO short-pulse laser. Current rad-hydro designs with limited fuel jetting into cone tip are not yet adequate for ignition. Designs are improving. Electron beam transport simulations (implicit-PIC LSP) show: (1) Magnetic fields and smaller angular spreads increase coupling to ignition-relevant 'hot spot' (20 um radius); (2) Plastic CD (for a warm target) produces somewhat better coupling than pure D (cryogenic target) due to enhanced resistive B fields; and (3) The optimal T{sub hot} for this target is {approx} 1 MeV; coupling falls by 3x as T{sub hot} rises to 4 MeV.

  16. The hidden cost of wildfires: Economic valuation of health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, L.A.; Champ, P.A.; Loomis, J.B.

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing concern that human health impacts from exposure to wildfire smoke are ignored in estimates of monetized damages from wildfires. Current research highlights the need for better data collection and analysis of these impacts. Using unique primary data, this paper quantifies the economic cost of health effects from the largest wildfire in Los Angeles County's modern history. A cost of illness estimate is $9.50 per exposed person per day. However, theory and empirical research consistently find that this measure largely underestimates the true economic cost of health effects from exposure to a pollutant in that it ignores the cost of defensive actions taken as well as disutility. For the first time, the defensive behavior method is applied to calculate the willingness to pay for a reduction in one wildfire smoke induced symptom day, which is estimated to be $84.42 per exposed person per day. ?? 2011.

  17. Impact on mortality of biomass combustion from wildfires in Spain: A regional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linares, C; Carmona, R; Salvador, P; Díaz, J

    2017-12-06

    Studies that analyse the impact on mortality of particulate matter (PM) produced by biomass combustion from wildfires mostly focus on a single city or on cities in different countries, with very few concentrating on one country as a whole. Accordingly, the aim of this paper was to analyse the impact that PM has on daily mortality in Spain on days with biomass combustion from wildfires. To analyse natural PM advections the Ministry of Agriculture and Fishing, Food & Environment divides Spain into 9 geographical regions. One province representative of each region for was selected analysis purposes, with provincial daily natural-cause mortality across the period 2004-2009 as the dependent variable, and daily mean PM concentrations in the provincial capital as the independent variable. We controlled for the effect of other chemical pollutants (NO2 and O3), maximum daily temperature on heat-wave days, day of the week, trends, seasonalities and the autoregressive nature of the series, using generalised linear models with the Poisson regression link to calculate relative risks (RRs) and the increase in RR (IRR) of PM-related mortality. The analysis was performed for days with and without biomass advections (DBA and DNBA respectively), with a breakdown by year, summer, and the remainder of the year (i.e., excluding summer). The results indicated that daily mean PM concentrations were higher on DBA than on DNBA, with statistically significant differences in most provinces. Furthermore, PM10 was associated with higher daily mortality on DBA in regions where wildfires were most frequent, but not in the remaining provinces. This translated as an IRR per 10μg/m3 of PM of 7.93 (2.36-13.81) in the North-west, 3.76 (1.36-6.22) in the Centre and 4.46 (2.99-5.94) in the South-west, values which in all cases were statistically higher than those obtained on DNBA. The increase in PM caused by biomass advections from wildfires is linked to a significant IRR of mortality in Spain. Hence

  18. IGNITION IMPROVEMENT OF LEAN NATURAL GAS MIXTURES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jason M. Keith

    2005-02-01

    This report describes work performed during a thirty month project which involves the production of dimethyl ether (DME) on-site for use as an ignition-improving additive in a compression-ignition natural gas engine. A single cylinder spark ignition engine was converted to compression ignition operation. The engine was then fully instrumented with a cylinder pressure transducer, crank shaft position sensor, airflow meter, natural gas mass flow sensor, and an exhaust temperature sensor. Finally, the engine was interfaced with a control system for pilot injection of DME. The engine testing is currently in progress. In addition, a one-pass process to form DME from natural gas was simulated with chemical processing software. Natural gas is reformed to synthesis gas (a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide), converted into methanol, and finally to DME in three steps. Of additional benefit to the internal combustion engine, the offgas from the pilot process can be mixed with the main natural gas charge and is expected to improve engine performance. Furthermore, a one-pass pilot facility was constructed to produce 3.7 liters/hour (0.98 gallons/hour) DME from methanol in order to characterize the effluent DME solution and determine suitability for engine use. Successful production of DME led to an economic estimate of completing a full natural gas-to-DME pilot process. Additional experimental work in constructing a synthesis gas to methanol reactor is in progress. The overall recommendation from this work is that natural gas to DME is not a suitable pathway to improved natural gas engine performance. The major reasons are difficulties in handling DME for pilot injection and the large capital costs associated with DME production from natural gas.

  19. Catalytic Ignition and Combustion of Lean Mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-01-01

    possible link between the thermodynamic quantity and kinetic parameters stems from the principle of thermal ignition developed by Frank -Kamenetskii...initial modelling stage needs to be made. In the following the theory of Frank -Kamenetkii, as extended by Hia et al., is summarized with an emphasis on...surface as the third "reactant" cannot be ignored. In the case of hydrogen adsorption on platinum surface, Netter and Kneringer (1975) found that there is

  20. Decommissioning plan for the National Ignition Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brereton, S., LLNL

    1998-05-27

    The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a US Department of Energy inertial confinement laser fusion experimental facility currently under construction at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). To ensure that decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) issues at the end-of-life are manageable, this subject has received attention from an early stage. This paper summarizes the NIF D&D issues, and the status of the D&D plan.