WorldWideScience

Sample records for weather induces outbreaks

  1. Dry weather induces outbreaks of human West Nile virus infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belant Jerrold L

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since its first occurrence in the New York City area during 1999, West Nile virus (WNV has spread rapidly across North America and has become a major public health concern in North America. By 2002, WNV was reported in 40 states and the District of Columbia with 4,156 human and 14,539 equine cases of infection. Mississippi had the highest human incidence rate of WNV during the 2002 epidemic in the United States. Epidemics of WNV can impose enormous impacts on local economies. Therefore, it is advantageous to predict human WNV risks for cost-effective controls of the disease and optimal allocations of limited resources. Understanding relationships between precipitation and WNV transmission is crucial for predicting the risk of the human WNV disease outbreaks under predicted global climate change scenarios. Methods We analyzed data on the human WNV incidences in the 82 counties of Mississippi in 2002, using standard morbidity ratio (SMR and Bayesian hierarchical models, to determine relationships between precipitation and human WNV risks. We also entertained spatial autocorrelations of human WNV risks with conditional autocorrelative (CAR models, implemented in WinBUGS 1.4.3. Results We observed an inverse relationship between county-level human WNV incidence risk and total annual rainfall during the previous year. Parameters representing spatial heterogeneity in the risk of human exposure to WNV improved model fit. Annual precipitation of the previous year was a predictor of spatial variation of WNV risk. Conclusions Our results have broad implications for risk assessment of WNV and forecasting WNV outbreaks. Assessing risk of vector-born infectious diseases will require understanding of complex ecological relationships. Based on the climatologically characteristic drought occurrence in the past and on climate model predictions for climate change and potentially greater drought occurrence in the future, we suggest that the

  2. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    McMichael, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental c...

  3. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  4. Outbreaks of the cotton tipworm, Crocidosema plebejana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), related to weather in Southeast Queensland, Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, J.G.; Gage, S.H.

    1986-10-01

    The cotton tipworm, Crocidosema plebejana (Zeller), has periodically caused serious damage to seedling cotton in Southeast Queensland. An analysis of data over 11 years revealed that outbreaks of this pest are weather related. A heat/precipitation ratio (weather index) was calculated and compared with population levels of the tipworm. Outbreaks were strongly correlated to cool and wet weather during March--November, the principal growth period of the weed host Malva parviflora (L.). Infestations were minor when conditions were dry. A prediction based on this index is compared with field infestation levels in 1984. 16 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.

  5. Outbreaks of Hantavirus induced by seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buceta, J.; Escudero, C.; de La Rubia, F. J.; Lindenberg, Katja

    2004-02-01

    Using a model for rodent population dynamics, we study outbreaks of Hantavirus infection induced by the alternation of seasons. Neither season by itself satisfies the environmental requirements for propagation of the disease. This result can be explained in terms of the seasonal interruption of the relaxation process of the mouse population toward equilibrium, and may shed light on the reported connection between climate variations and outbreaks of the disease.

  6. Predicting the start week of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks using real time weather variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gesteland Per H

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV, a major cause of bronchiolitis, has a large impact on the census of pediatric hospitals during outbreak seasons. Reliable prediction of the week these outbreaks will start, based on readily available data, could help pediatric hospitals better prepare for large outbreaks. Methods Naïve Bayes (NB classifier models were constructed using weather data from 1985-2008 considering only variables that are available in real time and that could be used to forecast the week in which an RSV outbreak will occur in Salt Lake County, Utah. Outbreak start dates were determined by a panel of experts using 32,509 records with ICD-9 coded RSV and bronchiolitis diagnoses from Intermountain Healthcare hospitals and clinics for the RSV seasons from 1985 to 2008. Results NB models predicted RSV outbreaks up to 3 weeks in advance with an estimated sensitivity of up to 67% and estimated specificities as high as 94% to 100%. Temperature and wind speed were the best overall predictors, but other weather variables also showed relevance depending on how far in advance the predictions were made. The weather conditions predictive of an RSV outbreak in our study were similar to those that lead to temperature inversions in the Salt Lake Valley. Conclusions We demonstrate that Naïve Bayes (NB classifier models based on weather data available in real time have the potential to be used as effective predictive models. These models may be able to predict the week that an RSV outbreak will occur with clinical relevance. Their clinical usefulness will be field tested during the next five years.

  7. Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-21

    emergence or re-emergence of disease vectors and pathogens of global public health relevance such as West Nile virus, malaria, dengue virus, cholera , Murray... Diseases (ProMED-mail), World Organiza- tion for Animal Health (OIE) (http://www.oie.int/) and US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention data records...Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns Assaf Anyamba1,4*, Jennifer L. Small1,5

  8. Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Britch, Seth C.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Reynolds, Curt A.; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

    2014-01-01

    We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused,10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

  9. Recent weather extremes and impacts on agricultural production and vector-borne disease outbreak patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L; Britch, Seth C; Tucker, Compton J; Pak, Edwin W; Reynolds, Curt A; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J

    2014-01-01

    We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

  10. Infiltration as Ventilation: Weather-Induced Dilution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherman, Max H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Turner, William J.N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Walker, Iain S. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-06-01

    The purpose of outdoor air ventilation is to dilute or remove indoor contaminants to which occupants are exposed. It can be provided by mechanical or natural means. In most homes, especially older homes, weather-driven infiltration provides the dominant fraction of the total ventilation. As we seek to provide good indoor air quality at minimum energy cost, it is important to neither over-ventilate nor under-ventilate. Thus, it becomes critically important to evaluate correctly the contribution infiltration makes to the total outdoor air ventilation rate. Because weather-driven infiltration is dependent on building air leakage and weather-induced pressure differences, a given amount of air leakage will provide different amounts of infiltration. Varying rates of infiltration will provide different levels of contaminant dilution and hence effective ventilation. This paper derives these interactions and then calculates the impact of weather-driven infiltration for different climates. A new “N-factor” is introduced to provide a convenient method for calculating the ventilation contribution of infiltration for over 1,000 locations across North America. The results of this work could be used in indoor air quality standards (specifically ASHRAE 62.2) to account for the contribution of weather-driven infiltration towards the dilution of indoor pollutants.

  11. Weather conditions prior to major outbreaks of meningococcol meningitis in the United Kingdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, C. G.

    1992-03-01

    Meningitis has been a notifiable disease in the United Kingdom for some 70 years. Only in recent years, stimulated by the work of the Meningitis Trust, has there been a more general awareness of the geographical distribution of cases, with certain locations being more prone than others to episodic outbreaks of the disease. In this paper we consider weather conditions prior to major outbreaks of meningitis in Hereford and Worcester, and Cleveland and the northwest Midlands. Possible causal links to air quality and large temporal changes of relative humidity are found from analysis of case data. However, whilst the diagnostic studies reported are encouraging, an independent test of the relative humidity gradient criterion using independent data for Gloucester was not successful. It is clear that meteorological and air quality data actually of the area from which the disease is reported must be analysed more fully to sustain or overrule the hypothesis proposed. In addition, the need for further clinical research into the likelihood of disease triggers generated by atmospheric smoke, dust and moisture is identified.

  12. Dry weather induces outbreaks of human West Nile virus infections

    OpenAIRE

    Belant Jerrold L; Minnis Richard B; Wang Guiming; Wax Charles L

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Since its first occurrence in the New York City area during 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across North America and has become a major public health concern in North America. By 2002, WNV was reported in 40 states and the District of Columbia with 4,156 human and 14,539 equine cases of infection. Mississippi had the highest human incidence rate of WNV during the 2002 epidemic in the United States. Epidemics of WNV can impose enormous impacts on local econom...

  13. Salt-Induced Physical Weathering of Stone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiro, M.; Ruiz-Agudo, E.; Rodriguez-Navarro, C.

    2010-12-01

    Salt weathering is recognized as an important mechanism that contributes to the modeling and shaping of the earth’s surface, in a range of environments spanning from the Sahara desert to Antarctica. It also contributes to the degradation and loss of cultural heritage, particularly carved stone and historic buildings. Soluble salts have recently been suggested to contribute to the shaping of rock outcrops on Mars and are being identified in other planetary bodies such as the moons of Jupiter (Europa and IO)1. Soluble salts such as sulfates, nitrates, chlorides and carbonates of alkali and alkali earth metals can crystallize within the porous system of rocks and building stones, exerting sufficient pressure against the pore walls to fracture the substrate. This physical damage results in increased porosity, thus providing a higher surface area for salt-enhanced chemical weathering. To better understand how salt-induced physical weathering occurs, we have studied the crystallization of the particularly damaging salt, sodium sulfate2, in a model system (a sintered porous glass of controlled porosity and pore size). For this elusive task of studying sub-surface crystallization in pores, we combined a variety of instruments to identify which phases crystallized during evaporation and calculated the supersaturation and associated crystallization pressure that caused damage. The heat of crystallization was measured using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), providing the timing of crystallization events and phase transitions3, while the evaporation rate was recorded using thermal gravimetry (TG). These methods enabled calculation of the sodium sulfate concentration in solution at every point during evaporation. Two-dimensional X-ray diffraction (2D-XRD) performs synchrotron-like experiments in a normal lab by using a Molybdenum X-ray source (more than 5 times more penetrative than conventional Copper source). Using this method, we determined that the first phase to

  14. Intra- and interseasonal autoregressive prediction of dengue outbreaks using local weather and regional climate for a tropical environment in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastin, Matthew D; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Wexler, Joshua; Self, Cameron

    2014-09-01

    Dengue fever transmission results from complex interactions between the virus, human hosts, and mosquito vectors-all of which are influenced by environmental factors. Predictive models of dengue incidence rate, based on local weather and regional climate parameters, could benefit disease mitigation efforts. Time series of epidemiological and meteorological data for the urban environment of Cali, Colombia are analyzed from January of 2000 to December of 2011. Significant dengue outbreaks generally occur during warm-dry periods with extreme daily temperatures confined between 18°C and 32°C--the optimal range for mosquito survival and viral transmission. Two environment-based, multivariate, autoregressive forecast models are developed that allow dengue outbreaks to be anticipated from 2 weeks to 6 months in advance. These models have the potential to enhance existing dengue early warning systems, ultimately supporting public health decisions on the timing and scale of vector control efforts.

  15. Outbreaks of Yuzu Dieback in Goheung Area: Possible Causes Deduced from Weather Extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang-Hyung Kim

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Starting in 2012, severe diebacks usually accompanied by abundant gum exudation have occurred on yuzu trees in Goheung-gun, Jeonnam Province, where severely affected trees were occasionally killed. On-farm surveys were conducted at 30 randomly-selected orchards located at Pungyang-myeon, Goheung-gun, and the resulting disease incidences were 18.5% and 39.6% for dieback and gumming symptoms, respectively. Black spots on branches and leaves also appeared on infected trees showing a typical dieback symptom. Morphological and molecular identifications of the isolated fungal organisms from lesions on the symptomatic leaves and branches revealed that they are identical to Phomopsis citri, known to cause gummosis. In order to find the reason for this sudden epidemic, we investigated the weather conditions that are exclusively distinct from previous years, hypothesizing that certain weather extremes might have caused the severe induction of pre-existing disease for yuzu. There were two extreme temperature drops beyond the yuzu’s cold hardiness limit right after an abnormally-warm-temperature-rise during the winter of 2011–12, which could cause severe frost damage resulting in mechanical injuries and physiological weakness to the affected trees. Furthermore, there was an increased frequency of strong wind events, seven times in 2012 compared to only a few times in the previous years, that could also lead to extensive injuries on branches. In conclusion, we estimated that the possible damages by severe frost and frequent strong wind events during 2012 could cause the yuzu trees to be vulnerable to subsequent fungal infection by providing physical entries and increasing plant susceptibility to infections.

  16. Outbreaks of Yuzu Dieback in Goheung Area: Possible Causes Deduced from Weather Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwang-Hyung; Kim, Gyoung Hee; Son, Kyeong In; Koh, Young Jin

    2015-09-01

    Starting in 2012, severe diebacks usually accompanied by abundant gum exudation have occurred on yuzu trees in Goheung-gun, Jeonnam Province, where severely affected trees were occasionally killed. On-farm surveys were conducted at 30 randomly-selected orchards located at Pungyang-myeon, Goheung-gun, and the resulting disease incidences were 18.5% and 39.6% for dieback and gumming symptoms, respectively. Black spots on branches and leaves also appeared on infected trees showing a typical dieback symptom. Morphological and molecular identifications of the isolated fungal organisms from lesions on the symptomatic leaves and branches revealed that they are identical to Phomopsis citri, known to cause gummosis. In order to find the reason for this sudden epidemic, we investigated the weather conditions that are exclusively distinct from previous years, hypothesizing that certain weather extremes might have caused the severe induction of pre-existing disease for yuzu. There were two extreme temperature drops beyond the yuzu's cold hardiness limit right after an abnormally-warm-temperature-rise during the winter of 2011-12, which could cause severe frost damage resulting in mechanical injuries and physiological weakness to the affected trees. Furthermore, there was an increased frequency of strong wind events, seven times in 2012 compared to only a few times in the previous years, that could also lead to extensive injuries on branches. In conclusion, we estimated that the possible damages by severe frost and frequent strong wind events during 2012 could cause the yuzu trees to be vulnerable to subsequent fungal infection by providing physical entries and increasing plant susceptibility to infections.

  17. Forecasting challenges during the severe weather outbreak in Central Europe on 25 June 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Púčik, Tomáš; Francová, Martina; Rýva, David; Kolář, Miroslav; Ronge, Lukáš

    2011-06-01

    On 25 June 2008, severe thunderstorms caused widespread damage and two fatalities in the Czech Republic. Significant features of the storms included numerous downbursts on a squall line that exhibited a bow echo reflectivity pattern, with sustained wind gusts over 32 m/s at several reporting stations. Moreover, a tornado and several downbursts of F2 intensity occurred within the convective system, collocated with the development of mesovortices within the larger scale bow echo. The extent of the event was sufficient to call it a derecho, as the windstorm had affected Eastern Germany, Southern Poland, Slovakia, Austria and Northern Hungary as well. Ahead of the squall line, several well-organized isolated cells occurred, exhibiting supercellular characteristics, both from a radar and visual perspective. These storms produced large hail and also isolated severe wind gusts. This paper deals mostly with the forecasting challenges that were experienced by the meteorologist on duty during the evolution of this convective scenario. The main challenge of the day was to identify the region that would be most affected by severe convection, especially as the numerical weather prediction failed to anticipate the extent and the progress of the derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Convective storms developed in an environment conducive to severe thunderstorms, with strong wind shear confined mostly to the lower half of the troposphere. These developments also were strongly influenced by mesoscale factors, especially a mesolow centered over Austria and its trough stretching to Eastern Bohemia. The paper demonstrates how careful mesoscale analysis could prove useful in dealing with such convective situations. Remote-sensing methods are also shown to be useful in such situations, especially when they can offer sufficient lead time to issue a warning, which is not always the case.

  18. Drought induces spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks across northwestern Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Sarah J; Veblen, Thomas T; Eisenhart, Karen S; Jarvis, Daniel; Kulakowski, Dominik

    2014-04-01

    This study examines influences of climate variability on spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak across northwestern Colorado during the period 1650 2011 CE. Periods of broad-scale outbreak reconstructed using documentary records and tree rings were dated to 1843-1860, 1882-1889, 1931-1957, and 2004-2010. Periods of outbreak were compared with seasonal temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and indices of ocean-atmosphere oscillation that include the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Classification trees showed that outbreaks can be predicted most successfully from above average annual AMO values and above average summer VPD values, indicators of drought across Colorado. Notably, we find that spruce beetle outbreaks appear to be predicted best by interannual to multidecadal variability in drought, not by temperature alone. This finding may imply that spruce beetle outbreaks are triggered by decreases in host tree defenses, which are hypothesized to occur with drought stress. Given the persistence of the AMO, the shift to a positive AMO phase in the late 1990s is likely to promote continued spruce beetle disturbance.

  19. Using Satellite Imagery to Identify Tornado Damage Tracks and Recovery from the April 27, 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Tony A.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Bell, Jordan R.

    2014-01-01

    Emergency response to natural disasters requires coordination between multiple local, state, and federal agencies. Single, relatively weak tornado events may require comparatively simple response efforts; but larger "outbreak" events with multiple strong, long-track tornadoes can benefit from additional tools to help expedite these efforts. Meteorologists from NOAA's National Weather Service conduct field surveys to map tornado tracks, assess damage, and determine the tornado intensity following each event. Moderate and high resolution satellite imagery can support these surveys by providing a high-level view of the affected areas. Satellite imagery could then be used to target areas for immediate survey or to corroborate the results of the survey after it is completed. In this study, the feasibility of using satellite imagery to identify tornado damage tracks was determined by comparing the characteristics of tracks observed from low-earth orbit to tracks assessed during the official NWS storm survey process. Of the 68 NWS confirmed centerlines, 24 tracks (35.3%) could be distinguished from other surface features using satellite imagery. Within each EF category, 0% of EF-0, 3% of EF-1, 50% of EF-2, 77.7% of EF-3, 87.5% of EF-4 and 100% of EF-5 tornadoes were detected. It was shown that satellite data can be used to identify tornado damage tracks in MODIS and ASTER NDVI imagery, where damage to vegetation creates a sharp drop in values though the minimum EF-category which can be detected is dependent upon the type of sensor used and underlying vegetation. Near-real time data from moderate resolution sensors compare favorably to field surveys after the event and suggest that the data can provide some value in the assessment process.

  20. Changes in rodent abundance and weather conditions potentially drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in Xi'an, China, 2005-2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huai-Yu Tian

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Increased risks for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS caused by Hantaan virus have been observed since 2005, in Xi'an, China. Despite increased vigilance and preparedness, HFRS outbreaks in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were larger than ever, with a total of 3,938 confirmed HFRS cases and 88 deaths in 2010 and 2011.Data on HFRS cases and weather were collected monthly from 2005 to 2012, along with active rodent monitoring. Wavelet analyses were performed to assess the temporal relationship between HFRS incidence, rodent density and climatic factors over the study period. Results showed that HFRS cases correlated to rodent density, rainfall, and temperature with 2, 3 and 4-month lags, respectively. Using a Bayesian time-series Poisson adjusted model, we fitted the HFRS outbreaks among humans for risk assessment in Xi'an. The best models included seasonality, autocorrelation, rodent density 2 months previously, and rainfall 2 to 3 months previously. Our models well reflected the epidemic characteristics by one step ahead prediction, out-of-sample.In addition to a strong seasonal pattern, HFRS incidence was correlated with rodent density and rainfall, indicating that they potentially drive the HFRS outbreaks. Future work should aim to determine the mechanism underlying the seasonal pattern and autocorrelation. However, this model can be useful in risk management to provide early warning of potential outbreaks of this disease.

  1. Record-low primary productivity and high plant damage in the Nordic Arctic Region in 2012 caused by multiple weather events and pest outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerke, Jarle W.; Rune Karlsen, Stein; Arild Høgda, Kjell; Malnes, Eirik; Jepsen, Jane U.; Lovibond, Sarah; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Tømmervik, Hans

    2014-08-01

    The release of cold temperature constraints on photosynthesis has led to increased productivity (greening) in significant parts (32-39%) of the Arctic, but much of the Arctic shows stable (57-64%) or reduced productivity (browning, factors dampening the greening effect of more maritime regions have remained elusive. Here we show how multiple anomalous weather events severely affected the terrestrial productivity during one water year (October 2011-September 2012) in a maritime region north of the Arctic Circle, the Nordic Arctic Region, and contributed to the lowest mean vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) recorded this century. Procedures for field data sampling were designed during or shortly after the events in order to assess both the variability in effects and the maximum effects of the stressors. Outbreaks of insect and fungal pests also contributed to low greenness. Vegetation greenness in 2012 was 6.8% lower than the 2000-11 average and 58% lower in the worst affected areas that were under multiple stressors. These results indicate the importance of events (some being mostly neglected in climate change effect studies and monitoring) for primary productivity in a high-latitude maritime region, and highlight the importance of monitoring plant damage in the field and including frequencies of stress events in models of carbon economy and ecosystem change in the Arctic. Fourteen weather events and anomalies and 32 hypothesized impacts on plant productivity are summarized as an aid for directing future research.

  2. Different delays-induced regime shifts in a stochastic insect outbreak dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Jiakui; Zeng, Chunhua; Xie, Qingshuang; Guan, Lin; Dong, Xiaohui; Yang, Fengzao

    2016-11-01

    Considering time delays in the deterministic and stochastic forces, we construct stochastic delayed differential equations to investigate the regime shifts in an insect ecosystem. The stationary probability distribution (SPD) and mean first passage time (MFPT) are obtained, respectively. Our main results show: (i) The multiplicative noise, positive cross-correlation noise between two noises and time delays can induce the regime shifts from the boom outbreak state to the bust one, but the additive noise and negative cross-correlation can induce the regime shifts from the bust outbreak state to the boom one; (ii) For the negative cross-correlation, the MFPT as a function of noise strengths exhibits one maximum, which shows the characteristic of the noise-delayed switching for the boom outbreak state, but for the no cross-correlation or positive cross-correlation, the MFPT decreases with the noise strengths; (iii) Two different types of time delays play same roles on the maximal MFPT with additive noise, and play opposite roles on the maximal MFPT with multiplicative noise. The mechanisms for noises-and delays-induced regime shifts between two states can be explained physically through the effective potential of ecological model.

  3. Drug-induced pulmonary arterial hypertension: a recent outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gérald Simonneau

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH is a rare disorder characterised by progressive obliteration of the pulmonary microvasculature resulting in elevated pulmonary vascular resistance and premature death. According to the current classification PAH can be associated with exposure to certain drugs or toxins, particularly to appetite suppressant intake drugs, such as aminorex, fenfluramine derivatives and benfluorex. These drugs have been confirmed to be risk factors for PAH and were withdrawn from the market. The supposed mechanism is an increase in serotonin levels, which was demonstrated to act as a growth factor for the pulmonary artery smooth muscle cells. Amphetamines, phentermine and mazindol were less frequently used, but are considered possible risk factors, for PAH. Dasatinib, dual Src/Abl kinase inhibitor, used in the treatment of chronic myelogenous leukaemia was associated with cases of severe PAH, potentially in part reversible after dasatinib withdrawal. Recently, several studies have raised the issue of potential endothelial dysfunction that could be induced by interferon, and a few cases of PAH have been reported with interferon therapy. PAH remains a rare complication of these drugs, suggesting possible individual susceptibility, and further studies are needed to identify patients at risk of drug-induced PAH.

  4. Direct radiative effects induced by intense desert dust outbreaks over the broader Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkikas, Antonis; Obiso, Vincenzo; Vendrell, Lluis; Basart, Sara; Jorba, Oriol; Pérez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Hatzianastassiou, Nikos; Gassó, Santiago; Baldasano, Jose Maria

    2016-04-01

    over desert areas. The mean regional NET DREs, under clear-sky conditions, vary between -10 to 2, -3 to 25, -35 to 3 and -22 to 3 Wm-2 for TOA, ATMAB, SURF and NETSURF, respectively. According to our results, dust outbreaks can cause a decrease of temperature at 2 meters by 4 °C during daytime while an increase of a similar magnitude is found at night. Moreover, negative feedbacks on dust emissions and aerosol optical depth are observed when dust-radiation interactions are activated. Our analysis clearly shows that taking into account the dust radiative effects in numerical simulations (RADON) the model's ability to reproduce the temperature fields as well as the downwelling radiation fluxes at the surface is improved. The former is confirmed by the evaluation of the model's outputs against ERA-Interim reanalyses datasets and weather stations observations (Integrated Surface Database, ISD) while the latter is justified through the comparison of model's downwelling SW/LW radiation fluxes at the surface with ground measurements from 6 Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) stations. A similar analysis is also attempted for the dust aerosol optical depth at 550 nm using the AERONET ground retrievals as reference measurements.

  5. Plant-induced weathering of a basaltic rock: experimental evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinsinger, Philippe; Fernandes Barros, Omar Neto; Benedetti, Marc F.; Noack, Yves; Callot, Gabriel

    2001-01-01

    The active role of higher plants in the weathering of silicate minerals and rocks is still a question for debate. The present work aimed at providing experimental evidence of the important role of a range of crop plants in such processes. In order to quantitatively assess the possible effect of these diverse plant species on the weathering of a basaltic rock, two laboratory experiments were carried out at room temperature. These compared the amounts of elements released from basalt when leached with a dilute salt solution in the presence or absence of crop plants grown for up to 36 days. For Si, Ca, Mg, and Na, plants resulted in an increase in the release rate by a factor ranging from 1 to 5 in most cases. Ca and Na seemed to be preferentially released relative to other elements, suggesting that plagioclase dissolved faster than the other constituents of the studied basalt. Negligible amounts of Fe were released in the absence of plants as a consequence of the neutral pH and atmospheric pO 2 that were maintained in the leaching solution. However, the amounts of Fe released from basalt in the presence of plants were up to 100- to 500-fold larger than in the absence of plants, for banana and maize. The kinetics of dissolution of basalt in the absence of plants showed a constantly decreasing release rate over the whole duration of the experiment (36 days). No steady state value was reached both in the absence and presence of banana plants. However, in the latter case, the rates remained at a high initial level over a longer period of time (up to 15 days) before starting to decrease. For Fe, the maximum rate of release was reached beyond 4 days and this rate remained high up to 22 days of growth of banana. The possible mechanisms responsible for this enhanced release of elements from basalt in the presence of plants are discussed. Although these mechanisms need to be elucidated, the present results clearly show that higher plants can considerably affect the kinetics

  6. On the dual nature of lichen-induced rock surface weathering in contrasting micro-environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, Joana; Gonçalves, João; Oliveira, Cláudia; Favero-Longo, Sergio E; Paz-Bermúdez, Graciela; Almeida, Rubim; Prieto, Beatriz

    2016-10-01

    Contradictory evidence from biogeomorphological studies has increased the debate on the extent of lichen contribution to differential rock surface weathering in both natural and cultural settings. This study, undertaken in Côa Valley Archaeological Park, aimed at evaluating the effect of rock surface orientation on the weathering ability of dominant lichens. Hyphal penetration and oxalate formation at the lichen-rock interface were evaluated as proxies of physical and chemical weathering, respectively. A new protocol of pixel-based supervised image classification for the analysis of periodic acid-Schiff stained cross-sections of colonized schist revealed that hyphal spread of individual species was not influenced by surface orientation. However, hyphal spread was significantly higher in species dominant on northwest facing surfaces. An apparently opposite effect was noticed in terms of calcium oxalate accumulation at the lichen-rock interface; it was detected by Raman spectroscopy and complementary X-ray microdiffraction on southeast facing surfaces only. These results suggest that lichen-induced physical weathering may be most severe on northwest facing surfaces by means of an indirect effect of surface orientation on species abundance, and thus dependent on the species, whereas lichen-induced chemical weathering is apparently higher on southeast facing surfaces and dependent on micro-environmental conditions, giving only weak support to the hypothesis that lichens are responsible for the currently observed pattern of rock-art distribution in Côa Valley. Assumptions about the drivers of open-air rock-art distribution patterns elsewhere should also consider the micro-environmental controls of lichen-induced weathering, to avoid biased measures of lichen contribution to rock-art deterioration.

  7. Effects of time delay and space on herbivore dynamics: linking inducible defenses of plants to herbivore outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Gui-Quan; Wang, Su-Lan; Ren, Qian; Jin, Zhen; Wu, Yong-Ping

    2015-01-01

    Empirical results indicate that inducible defenses of plants have effects on herbivore populations. However, little is known about how inducible defenses of plants have influences on herbivore outbreak when space effect is considered. To reveal the relationship between inducible defenses and herbivore outbreak, we present a mathematical model to describe the interaction of them. It was found that time delay plays dual effects in the persistence of herbivore populations: (i) large value of time delay may be associated with small density of herbivore populations, and thus causes the populations to run a higher risk of extinction; (ii) moderate value of time delay is beneficial for maintaining herbivore density in a determined range which may promote the persistence of herbivore populations. Additionally, we revealed that interaction of time delay and space promotes the growth of average density of herbivore populations during their outbreak period which implied that time delay may drive the resilience of herbivore populations. Our findings highlight the close relationship between inducible defenses of plants and herbivore outbreak. PMID:26084812

  8. Effects of time delay and space on herbivore dynamics: linking inducible defenses of plants to herbivore outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Gui-Quan; Wang, Su-Lan; Ren, Qian; Jin, Zhen; Wu, Yong-Ping

    2015-06-18

    Empirical results indicate that inducible defenses of plants have effects on herbivore populations. However, little is known about how inducible defenses of plants have influences on herbivore outbreak when space effect is considered. To reveal the relationship between inducible defenses and herbivore outbreak, we present a mathematical model to describe the interaction of them. It was found that time delay plays dual effects in the persistence of herbivore populations: (i) large value of time delay may be associated with small density of herbivore populations, and thus causes the populations to run a higher risk of extinction; (ii) moderate value of time delay is beneficial for maintaining herbivore density in a determined range which may promote the persistence of herbivore populations. Additionally, we revealed that interaction of time delay and space promotes the growth of average density of herbivore populations during their outbreak period which implied that time delay may drive the resilience of herbivore populations. Our findings highlight the close relationship between inducible defenses of plants and herbivore outbreak.

  9. Natural Outbreak of BVDV-1d-Induced Mucosal Disease Lacking Intestinal Lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, M V; Konradt, G; de Souza, S O; Bassuino, D M; Silveira, S; Mósena, A C S; Canal, C W; Pavarini, S P; Driemeier, D

    2017-03-01

    Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) belongs to the Pestivirus genus, which is further divided into subgenotypes (1a-1u and 2a-c). When persistent infection occurs, the calf will be immunotolerant to BVDV and possibly develop mucosal disease. This study describes an outbreak of BVDV-1d-induced mucosal disease lacking intestinal lesions. Eleven calves presented with anorexia, sialorrhea, lameness, recumbency, and death. Three calves were necropsied, showing ulceration of the interdigital skin and the oral and nasal mucosa; linear ulcers in the tongue, esophagus, and rumen; and rounded ulcers in the abomasum. Microscopically, mucosa and skin had superficial necrosis, with single-cell necrosis and vacuolation in epithelial cells, and severe parakeratosis. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) showed BVDV antigen in the cytoplasm of epithelial cells in skin and mucosa. All 11 dead calves were positive upon reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for the detection of Pestivirus along with another 11 live calves from the herd, which were positive again by RT-PCR and IHC after a 4-week interval. Sequencing of the 5' untranslated region and N-terminal protease showed that viruses from these 22 calves were homologous and of subgenotype BVDV-1d. Cytopathic BVDV was isolated from 8 of 11 dead calves, but only noncytopathic BVDV was isolated from the 11 live animals. The findings indicate that this was an outbreak of mucosal disease caused by BVDV-1d, with high morbidity, and lesions restricted to the upper alimentary system and skin and absent from intestine. Thus, the epidemiological and pathological features in this form of mucosal disease may be similar to vesicular diseases, including foot and mouth disease.

  10. Natural disaster-induced environmental migration from the Indian subcontinent resulting in malaria outbreak in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavrouli, Maria; Mavroulis, Spyridon; Piperaki, Evangelia-Theofano; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos; Tsakris, Athanassios

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hydrometeorological disasters such as floods and hurricanes can severely damage human life, natural and built environment and economic development. Consequently, they can result in environmental migration (EM). In case of infectious disease (ID) outbreaks during the post-disaster period and subsequent EM, environmental refugees from endemic regions serve as ID carriers to their new residence sites altering the spatial ID distribution and incidence. The continuous massive influx of environmental refugees from malaria endemic regions to non-endemic ones can build up a parasite reservoir among naive host populations. Initially, serum specimens were collected in 2012 from asymptomatic individuals, 298 Greeks and 721 immigrants residing in areas of documented local malaria transmission in Laconia (Southern Peloponnese) and in Eastern Attica, Greece. Sera were tested for antibodies against Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum using the Malaria-Ab ELISA (IBL International GMBH, Hamburg, Germany). Taking into account that Greece has been declared malaria free by the WHO since 1974, we conducted an extensive and systematic literature review related to natural disasters leading among others to increased malaria risk in Indian Subcontinent and respective forced EM in order to detect relative possible causes of reintroduction and localized outbreaks of malaria in Greece. Regarding the country of origin, information was available for 685 (95%) of the 721 immigrants. Of the 678 immigrants from Indian Subcontinent, 627 (92.5%) originated from Pakistan, 24 (3.53%) Afghanistan, 24 (3.53%) India and 3 (0.44%) Bangladesh. Of the 721 immigrants, 582 and 124 resided in Laconia and Eastern Attica respectively. Seventy-one immigrants residing in Laconia and 14 in Eastern Attica were positive for antimalarial antibodies, while none of the 298 Greeks residing in Laconia (N=248) and Attica (N=50) was found positive. Based on already published scientific data, Pakistan has been exposed

  11. Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, Shigeru; Kataoka, Ryuho; Pulkkinen, Antti; Watari, Shinichi

    2016-01-01

    Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

  12. Weather radar data correlate to hail-induced mortality in grassland birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carver, Amber; Ross, Jeremy D.; Augustine, David J.; Skagen, Susan K.; Dwyer, Angela M.; Tomback, Diana F.; Wunder, Michael B.

    2017-01-01

    Small-bodied terrestrial animals such as songbirds (Order Passeriformes) are especially vulnerable to hail-induced mortality; yet, hail events are challenging to predict, and they often occur in locations where populations are not being studied. Focusing on nesting grassland songbirds, we demonstrate a novel approach to estimate hail-induced mortality. We quantify the relationship between the probability of nests destroyed by hail and measured Level-III Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data, including atmospheric base reflectivity, maximum estimated size of hail and maximum estimated azimuthal wind shear. On 22 June 2014, a hailstorm in northern Colorado destroyed 102 out of 203 known nests within our research site. Lark bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) nests comprised most of the sample (n = 186). Destroyed nests were more likely to be found in areas of higher storm intensity, and distributions of NEXRAD variables differed between failed and surviving nests. For 133 ground nests where nest-site vegetation was measured, we examined the ameliorative influence of woody vegetation, nest cover and vegetation density by comparing results for 13 different logistic regression models incorporating the independent and additive effects of weather and vegetation variables. The most parsimonious model used only the interactive effect of hail size and wind shear to predict the probability of nest survival, and the data provided no support for any of the models without this predictor. We conclude that vegetation structure may not mitigate mortality from severe hailstorms and that weather radar products can be used remotely to estimate potential for hail mortality of nesting grassland birds. These insights will improve the efficacy of grassland bird population models under predicted climate change scenarios.

  13. Cholera outbreaks in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Martin A; Delrieu, Isabelle; Heyerdahl, Leonard; Gessner, Bradford D

    2014-01-01

    an infectious dose of Vibrio cholerae and on the virulence of the implicated strain. Cholera transmission can then be amplified by several factors including contamination of human water- or food sources; climate and extreme weather events; political and economic crises; high population density combined with poor quality informal housing and poor hygiene practices; spread beyond a local community through human travel and animals, e.g., water birds. At an individual level, cholera risk may increase with decreasing immunity and hypochlorhydria, such as that induced by Helicobacter pylori infection, which is endemic in much of Africa, and may increase individual susceptibility and cholera incidence. Since contaminated water is the main vehicle for the spread of cholera, the obvious long-term solution to eradicate the disease is the provision of safe water to all African populations. This requires considerable human and financial resources and time. In the short and medium term, vaccination may help to prevent and control the spread of cholera outbreaks. Regardless of the intervention, further understanding of cholera biology and epidemiology is essential to identify populations and areas at increased risk and thus ensure the most efficient use of scarce resources for the prevention and control of cholera.

  14. Accelerated weathering-induced degradation of poly(lactic acid) fiber studied by near-infrared (NIR) hyperspectral imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzawa, Hideyuki; Nishida, Masakazu; Tanaka, Toshiyuki; Kanematsu, Wataru

    2012-04-01

    Hydrolysis degradation of a set of drawn poly(lactic acid) (PLA) fibers was induced by an accelerated weathering test, radiating ultraviolet (UV) light under a certain temperature and humidity. The fine features of the transient behavior of the PLA fibers were captured by near-infrared (NIR) hyperspectral imaging. The PLA fibers showed a gradual decrease in mechanical property (e.g., tensile strength), indicating hydrolysis degradation. Thus, the detailed analysis of the spectral variation, in turn, offers useful information on the molecular-level degradation behavior of the drawn PLA fibers. The variation of the spectral intensity as well as band position shift of the crystalline band of PLA was analyzed. The spectral intensity of the crystalline band of PLA showed gradual decrease, suggesting the decrease in molecular weight induced by the hydrolysis degradation. In addition, the crystalline band also exhibited a coinciding shift to the lower wavenumber direction with the weathering test, revealing cleavage-induced crystallization of the PLA samples. Consequently, the hydrolysis degradation induced by the weathering test substantially accelerates predominant degradation of the amorphous structure of the PLA and such variation of the molecular structure, in turn, brings less ductility to the PLA fiber.

  15. Microorganism-induced weathering of clay minerals in a hydromorphic soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Hanlie; Fang, Qian; Cheng, Liuling; Wang, Chaowen; Churchman, Gordon Jock

    2016-07-01

    pedogenesis process, as ferrihydrite is usually formed with the assistance of biota. Redoximorphic processes will chemically affect phyllosilicates by changing their charge, and Fe(III) in illite may serve as electron acceptor for Fe(III)-reducing microorganisms. This leads to an increase in negative charge in the illite structure which could be neutralized by electrostatic displacement of interlayer cations and adsorption of protons, thereby promoting transformation of illite to mixed-layer illite-smectite and dissolution of the pre-existing illite mineral. Our results suggest that microorganisms brought about iron leaching and dominated the alteration of clay minerals by redox processes, and different mineral volumes formed in the net-like B horizon of the hydromorphic soil were attributed to the microorganism-induced weathering process.

  16. Case report of cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis after chemoradiotherapy with cisplatin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindts, Isabelle; Stellamans, Karin; Planckaert, Nikie; Goethals, Laurence [AZ Groeninge Hospital, Department of Radiation Oncology, Kortrijk (Belgium); Bonny, Michiel [AZ Groeninge Hospital, Department of Dermatology, Kortrijk (Belgium)

    2014-08-15

    The radiation recall reaction (RRR) is an inflammatory reaction that occurs in previously irradiated areas. The phenomenon is probably due to an idiosyncratic hypersensitivity reaction, in which a second agent can recall the inflammatory reaction. This case report documents a cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis (RRD). We observed a severe RRD in a patient after chemoradiotherapy treatment with cisplatin for a nasopharyngeal carcinoma, precipitated by cold temperatures, which developed 9 days after completion of therapy. In the medical literature, RRD following extreme cold temperatures seems to be a peculiar event. Until further information on the interaction is available, future studies on combined chemotherapy with cisplatin should be carefully monitored and any side effects clearly documented. This case suggests that environmental conditions may play a contributing role in the development of RRD. This case also implies that neither fraction size nor total radiation dose is a determining factor in the development of the dermatologic reaction. (orig.) [German] Die ''Radiation-Recall-Reaktion'' (RRR) ist eine Entzuendungsreaktion, die in zuvor bestrahlten Bereichen auftritt. Das Phaenomen wird wahrscheinlich durch eine spezifische Ueberempfindlichkeitsreaktion verursacht, bei der ein zweites Agens die Entzuendungsreaktion hervorruft. Dieser Fallbericht beschreibt eine kaltwetterinduzierte RR-Hautentzuendung. Wir beobachteten bei dem Patienten nach einer Radiochemotherapie mit Cisplatin aufgrund eines Nasopharynxkarzinoms eine heftige RR-Dermatitis (RRD) aufgrund kalter Temperaturen, die sich 9 Tage nach Therapiebeendigung entwickelte. In der medizinischen Literatur scheint eine RRD infolge extrem kalter Temperaturen ein besonderes Ereignis. Bis weitere Informationen zu der Interaktion verfuegbar sind, sollten zukuenftige Studien zur Kombinationstherapie mit Cisplatin sorgfaeltig ueberwacht und Nebenwirkungen eindeutig dokumentiert

  17. Response of the Adriatic Sea to an intense cold air outbreak: Dense water dynamics and wave-induced transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benetazzo, A.; Bergamasco, A.; Bonaldo, D.; Falcieri, F. M.; Sclavo, M.; Langone, L.; Carniel, S.

    2014-11-01

    The paper describes formation and spreading of dense shelf waters in the Adriatic Sea (North Adriatic Dense Water, NAdDW) during the winter of 2012 as a consequence of an intense and long cold air outbreak of northeasterly Bora winds. As a result, during February 2012 northern Adriatic Sea water temperature dropped to about 6 °C and density exceeded 1030 kg/m3, most likely the maximum value since 1929. NAdDW dynamics has been investigated by means of a 3-D ocean-wave coupled model running on a high resolution and eddy-permitting grid. The numerical experiments have relied on the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment-Transport (COAWST) system forced one-way with atmospheric forcings provided by the model COSMO-I7. A suite of observational data has been used to characterize the Bora event and evaluate numerical model performance. At sub-basin scales, the newly formed waters flowing southerly have produced a water renewal of the northern Adriatic, as more than 50% of water volumes have left the basin. Dense waters volume transports, evaluated through different Adriatic cross-sections, have been modulated by tides (damped for the densest water masses) and reached about 1 Sv. The contribution of wave-induced forcings has been quantified and examined, indicating that these represent a major driving mechanism during NAdDW production and spreading phases. This work provides evidence that NAdDW is spread accordingly with two different mechanisms: at early stages of its formation, the wind-driven ocean circulation pushes newly formed waters to leave the northern basin with relatively high speeds (about 0.30 m/s). Later on, remaining NAdDW leaks slowly out (0.09 m/s as average) from the production site. Residence times of dense waters in the north, middle, and south Adriatic Sea are also documented.

  18. Bacterially induced weathering of ultramafic rock and its implications for phytoextraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerra-Castro, Cristina; Kidd, Petra; Kuffner, Melanie; Prieto-Fernández, Ángeles; Hann, Stephan; Monterroso, Carmela; Sessitsch, Angela; Wenzel, Walter; Puschenreiter, Markus

    2013-09-01

    The bioavailability of metals in soil is often cited as a limiting factor of phytoextraction (or phytomining). Bacterial metabolites, such as organic acids, siderophores, or biosurfactants, have been shown to mobilize metals, and their use to improve metal extraction has been proposed. In this study, the weathering capacities of, and Ni mobilization by, bacterial strains were evaluated. Minimal medium containing ground ultramafic rock was inoculated with either of two Arthrobacter strains: LA44 (indole acetic acid [IAA] producer) or SBA82 (siderophore producer, PO4 solubilizer, and IAA producer). Trace elements and organic compounds were determined in aliquots taken at different time intervals after inoculation. Trace metal fractionation was carried out on the remaining rock at the end of the experiment. The results suggest that the strains act upon different mineral phases. LA44 is a more efficient Ni mobilizer, apparently solubilizing Ni associated with Mn oxides, and this appeared to be related to oxalate production. SBA82 also leads to release of Ni and Mn, albeit to a much lower extent. In this case, the concurrent mobilization of Fe and Si indicates preferential weathering of Fe oxides and serpentine minerals, possibly related to the siderophore production capacity of the strain. The same bacterial strains were tested in a soil-plant system: the Ni hyperaccumulator Alyssum serpyllifolium subsp. malacitanum was grown in ultramafic soil in a rhizobox system and inoculated with each bacterial strain. At harvest, biomass production and shoot Ni concentrations were higher in plants from inoculated pots than from noninoculated pots. Ni yield was significantly enhanced in plants inoculated with LA44. These results suggest that Ni-mobilizing inoculants could be useful for improving Ni uptake by hyperaccumulator plants.

  19. Dependency of outbreaks distribution from insects - defoliators' seasonal development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina Meshkova

    2003-01-01

    Analysis of data on the population dynamics of foliage browsing insects in time and space was conducted in the Ukraine. For each of the main species, correlation indices were calculated between outbreak characteristics (mean and specific foci area, outbreak probability), weather elements (air temperature, precipitation), indices (hydrothermal coefficient, winter...

  20. Will climate change affect outbreak patterns of planthoppers in Bangladesh?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, M P; Huang, Dingcheng; Nachman, G; Ahmed, Nur; Begum, Mahfuz Ara; Rabbi, M F

    2014-01-01

    Recently, planthoppers outbreaks have intensified across Asia resulting in heavy rice yield losses. The problem has been widely reported as being induced by insecticides while other factors such as global warming that could be potential drivers have been neglected. Here, we speculate that global warming may increase outbreak risk of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål.). We present data that demonstrate the relationship between climate variables (air temperature and precipitation) and the abundance of brown planthopper (BPH) during 1998-2007. Data show that BPH has become significantly more abundant in April over the 10-year period, but our data do not indicate that this is due to a change in climate, as no significant time trends in temperature and precipitation could be demonstrated. The abundance of BPH varied considerably between months within a year which is attributed to seasonal factors, including the availability of suitable host plants. On the other hand, the variation within months is attributed to fluctuations in monthly temperature and precipitation among years. The effects of these weather variables on BPH abundance were analyzed statistically by a general linear model. The statistical model shows that the expected effect of increasing temperatures is ambiguous and interacts with the amount of rainfall. According to the model, months or areas characterized by a climate that is either cold and dry or hot and wet are likely to experience higher levels of BPH due to climate change, whereas other combinations of temperature and rainfall may reduce the abundance of BPH. The analysis indicates that global warming may have contributed to the recent outbreaks of BPH in some rice growing areas of Asia, and that the severity of such outbreaks is likely to increase if climate change exaggerates. Our study highlights the need to consider climate change when designing strategies to manage planthoppers outbreaks.

  1. Outbreaks and Investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and save lives. Recent Fungal Outbreaks and Investigations Histoplasmosis in the Dominican Republic Histoplasmosis outbreak among tunnel ... please visit the Fungal Rhizopus Investigation web page. Histoplasmosis in an Illinois Prison Histoplasmosis outbreak at a ...

  2. Disease Outbreak News

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... MERS-CoV) Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza at the Human-Animal Interface (HAI) Related documents WHO outbreak communication guide 2008 WHO outbreak communications guidelines Outbreak communication: ...

  3. Weather-induced ischemia and arrhythmia in patients undergoing cardiac rehabilitation: another difference between men and women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Alexandra; Schuh, Angela; Maetzel, Friedrich-Karl; Rückerl, Regina; Breitner, Susanne; Peters, Annette

    2008-07-01

    Given the accumulating evidence that people with underlying heart disease are a particularly vulnerable group for triggers like changing meteorological parameters, the objective of this longitudinal study was to analyze the influence of weather parameters on blood pressure, arrhythmia and ischemia in cardiovascular patients. A panel study with repeated measurements was conducted in a rehabilitation clinic in Timmendorfer Strand (Baltic Sea, Germany) with 872 cardiovascular patients. Heart rate, blood pressure and electrocardiography changes were measured during repeated bicycle ergometries. Generalized Estimating Equations were used for regression analyses of immediate, delayed and cumulative influences of the daily measured meteorological data. For men, a decrease in air temperature and in water vapor pressure doubled the risk of ST-segment depression during ergometry [odds ratio (OR) for 1 day delay: 1.88 (1.24; 2.83) for air temperature] with a delay of 1-2 days. For women, an increase of their heart rate before the start of the ergometry [same day: 4.36 beats/min (0.99; 7.74) for air temperature] and a 2- to 3-fold higher risk for ventricular ectopic beats [1 day delay: OR 2.43 (1.17; 5.05) for air temperature] was observed with an increase in temperature and water vapor pressure in almost all analyzed time-windows. The study indicates that meteorological parameters can induce changes in heart function which may lead to adverse cardiovascular events especially in susceptible, diseased individuals. The observed effect on ST-segment depression could be a link between the association of weather changes and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

  4. Solar-induced weathering of rocks: integrating instrumental and numerical studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallet, B.; Eppes, M. C.; Mackenzie-Helnwein, P.; Warren, K.; McFadden, L.; Gillespie, A.; Putkonen, J.; Swami, S.; Shi, J.

    2011-12-01

    The contribution of solar-driven thermal cycling to the progressive breakdown of surface rocks on the Earth and other planets is controversial. We introduce a current study of the physical state in boulders that integrates modern instrumental and numerical approaches to quantify the surface temperature, stresses, strains, and microfracture activity in exposed boulders, and to shed light on the processes underlying this form of mechanical weathering. We are monitoring the surface and environmental conditions of two ~30 cm dia. granite boulders (one in North Carolina, one in New Mexico) in the field for ~1 yr each. Each rock is instrumented with 8 thermocouples, 8 strain gauges, a surface moisture sensor and 6 Acoustic Emission (AE) sensors to monitor microfracture activity continuously. These sensors and a full meteorological station, including soil-moisture probes, are combined into a single, remotely accessible system. AE events can be located to within 2.5 cm. We are able 1) to spatially and temporally correlate microcrack growth (AE events) with the rock surface and environmental conditions experienced by the rock, and 2) to validate modeling results. The modeling work addresses two coupled problems: 1) the time-varying thermal regime of rocks exposed to diurnal variations in solar radiation as dictated by latitude, and time of the year, as well as the surface emissivity and thermal properties of the rock and soil, and size and shape of the rock, and 2) the corresponding time-varying stress and strain fields in the rocks using representative elastic properties and realistic rock shape and orientation. AE events tend to occur shortly after sunset (6-9 pm) in the upper portion of the boulder. Most of the events occur in summer and winter months for the NC boulder. The majority occur in bursts of tens to hundreds over periods of a few minutes, and are often associated with environmental factors other than simple diurnal warming and cooling, such as wind gusts, that

  5. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  6. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  7. Extreme water-related weather events and waterborne disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cann, K F; Thomas, D Rh; Salmon, R L; Wyn-Jones, A P; Kay, D

    2013-04-01

    Global climate change is expected to affect the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme water-related weather events such as excessive precipitation, floods, and drought. We conducted a systematic review to examine waterborne outbreaks following such events and explored their distribution between the different types of extreme water-related weather events. Four medical and meteorological databases (Medline, Embase, GeoRef, PubMed) and a global electronic reporting system (ProMED) were searched, from 1910 to 2010. Eighty-seven waterborne outbreaks involving extreme water-related weather events were identified and included, alongside 235 ProMED reports. Heavy rainfall and flooding were the most common events preceding outbreaks associated with extreme weather and were reported in 55·2% and 52·9% of accounts, respectively. The most common pathogens reported in these outbreaks were Vibrio spp. (21·6%) and Leptospira spp. (12·7%). Outbreaks following extreme water-related weather events were often the result of contamination of the drinking-water supply (53·7%). Differences in reporting of outbreaks were seen between the scientific literature and ProMED. Extreme water-related weather events represent a risk to public health in both developed and developing countries, but impact will be disproportionate and likely to compound existing health disparities.

  8. Modeling dengue outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, Marcelo; Barmak, Daniel H; Dorso, Claudio O; Solari, Hernán G; Natiello, Mario A

    2011-08-01

    We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by the sole action of the mosquito. Exponential, deterministic and experimental distributions for the (human) exposed period are considered in two weather scenarios, one corresponding to temperate climate and the other to tropical climate. Virus circulation, final epidemic size and duration of outbreaks are considered showing that the results present little sensitivity to the statistics followed by the exposed period provided the median of the distributions are in coincidence. Only the time between an introduced (imported) case and the appearance of the first symptomatic secondary case is sensitive to this distribution. We finally show that the IBM model introduced is precisely a realization of a compartmental model, and that at least in this case, the choice between compartmental models or IBM is only a matter of convenience.

  9. Mirador - Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth Science data access made simple. Our weather system includes the dynamics of the atmosphere and its interaction with the oceans and land. The improvement of...

  10. Modeling cholera outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Dennis L; Longini, Ira M; Morris, J Glenn

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool for studying infectious disease outbreak dynamics and simulating the effects of possible interventions. Here, we describe approaches to modeling cholera outbreaks and how models have been applied to explore intervention strategies, particularly in Haiti. Mathematical models can play an important role in formulating and evaluating complex cholera outbreak response options. Major challenges to cholera modeling are insufficient data for calibrating models and the need to tailor models for different outbreak scenarios.

  11. Modeling cholera outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longini, Ira M.; Morris, J. Glenn

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool for studying infectious disease outbreak dynamics and simulating the effects of possible interventions. Here, we describe approaches to modeling cholera outbreaks and how models have been applied to explore intervention strategies, particularly in Haiti. Mathematical models can play an important role in formulating and evaluating complex cholera outbreak response options. Major challenges to cholera modeling are insufficient data for calibrating models and the need to tailor models for different outbreak scenarios. PMID:23412687

  12. 'Is it the weather?'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Jacobsen (Ben); W.A. Marquering (Wessel)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe show that results in the recent strand of the literature that tries to explain stock returns by weather induced mood shifts of investors might be data-driven inference. More specifically, we consider two recent studies (Kamstra, Kramer and Levi, 2003a and Cao and Wei, 2004) that claim

  13. Implications of weather-induced tree mortality on forest carbon dynamics based on remeasured forest inventory plots in the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Vittorio, A. V.; Chambers, J. Q.

    2011-12-01

    Forest tree mortality plays an important role in the global carbon budget through so-called 'background' mortality rates and larger, less frequent mortality events. The actual mortality turnover rates of forest biomass are not well understood and can vary with forest type, stand characteristics, and environmental conditions. Different agents, such as fire, insects, disease, and weather, operate on different time scales and have different effects on ecosystems. These differences make it difficult, but important, to determine a continuum of return frequencies for agent-specific mortality, especially when making projections of forest carbon balance. Some regional and global ecosystem models include a separate fire component to account for burn emissions, but events such as hurricanes can also influence carbon dynamics and are not simulated. Thus, the effects of potential changes in hurricane frequency and intensity over time would not be captured by existing models. Furthermore, many regional and global ecosystem models assume a single, non-fire mortality rate for all forests, which likely introduces bias to projections of forest carbon balance. Using the United States Forest Service (USFS) Forest Inventory Analysis DataBase (FIADB) we estimated historic (~1970 - 2010) mortality rates for Eastern United States forests. We present spatially-explicit estimates of total mortality and of agent-specific mortality due to insects, disease, fire, weather, and harvest. These estimates show that uniform mortality rates in ecosystem models might be improved if varied spatially. The relative contribution of weather-induced mortality indicates that it results from smaller, more frequent events in addition to the effects of more extreme events such as hurricanes. Evidence of relatively high, hurricane-induced mortality suggests that the effects of extreme weather events should be explicitly modeled.

  14. Increase in outbreaks of gastroenteritis linked to bathing water in Finland in summer 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauppinen, Ari; Al-Hello, Haider; Zacheus, Outi; Kilponen, Jaana; Maunula, Leena; Huusko, Sari; Lappalainen, Maija; Miettinen, Ilkka; Blomqvist, Soile; Rimhanen-Finne, Ruska

    2017-01-01

    An increased number of suspected outbreaks of gastroenteritis linked to bathing water were reported to the Finnish food- and waterborne outbreak (FWO) registry in July and August 2014. The investigation reports were assessed by a national outbreak investigation panel. Eight confirmed outbreaks were identified among the 15 suspected outbreaks linked to bathing water that had been reported to the FWO registry. According to the outbreak investigation reports, 1,453 persons fell ill during these outbreaks. Epidemiological and microbiological data revealed noroviruses as the main causative agents. During the outbreaks, exceptionally warm weather had boosted the use of beaches. Six of eight outbreaks occurred at small lakes; for those, the investigation strongly suggested that the beach users were the source of contamination. In one of those eight outbreaks, an external source of contamination was identified and elevated levels of faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) were noted in water. In the remaining outbreaks, FIB analyses were insufficient to describe the hygienic quality of the water. Restrictions against bathing proved effective in controlling the outbreaks. In spring 2015, the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) and the National Supervisory Authority for Welfare and Health (Valvira) published guidelines for outbreak control to prevent bathing water outbreaks. PMID:28251888

  15. Pilot Inter-Laboratory Studies for Evaluating Weathering-Induced Release of Carbon Nanotubes from Solid Matrices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanomaterials are increasingly being used in polymer composites to enhance the properties of these materials. Here we present results of a pilot inter-laboratory study to simulate the effects of weathering on the potential release of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT) from thei...

  16. Pilot Inter-Laboratory Studies for Evaluating Weathering-Induced Release of Carbon Nanotubes from Solid Matrices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanomaterials are increasingly being used in polymer composites to enhance the properties of these materials. Here we present results of a pilot inter-laboratory study to simulate the effects of weathering on the potential release of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT) from thei...

  17. Modeling cholera outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    Chao, Dennis L.; Ira M Longini; Morris, J. Glenn

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool for studying infectious disease outbreak dynamics and simulating the effects of possible interventions. Here, we describe approaches to modeling cholera outbreaks and how models have been applied to explore intervention strategies, particularly in Haiti. Mathematical models can play an important role in formulating and evaluating complex cholera outbreak response options. Major challenges to cholera modeling are insufficient data for calibrating mo...

  18. Modeling cholera outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    Dennis L Chao; Longini, Ira M.; Morris, J. Glenn

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool for studying infectious disease outbreak dynamics and simulating the effects of possible interventions. Here, we describe approaches to modeling cholera outbreaks and how models have been applied to explore intervention strategies, particularly in Haiti. Mathematical models can play an important role in formulating and evaluating complex cholera outbreak response options. Major challenges to cholera modeling are insufficient data for calibrating mo...

  19. Weather induced effects on extensive air showers observed with the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory

    CERN Document Server

    Bleve, Carla

    2007-01-01

    The rate of events measured with the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory is found to be modulated by the weather conditions. This effect is due to the increasing amount of matter traversed by the shower as the ground pressure increases and to the inverse proportionality of the Moliere radius to the air density near ground. Air-shower simulations with different realistic profiles of the atmosphere support this interpretation of the observed effects.

  20. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

    2012-12-11

    Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003-2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.

  1. Stormy Weather

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    Inspired by the deep abyss of the unknown; a constant source for investigation and discovery, heating and destruction, all simultaneously. Beneath the deep darkness, millions of species vibrantly thrive in another universe wholly untouched by human hands, though affected by their choices. The weathered pieces and people associated with seaside villages, the deep wrinkles that tell a story of one's life and experiences like

  2. Weather-induced mass deaths of the Common House Swift Apus affinis in Thengumarahada Village of the Nilgiris, southern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ramakrishnan

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Weather influences all living organisms, especially wild animals. In the case of birds, inclement weather conditions may affect them during migration and feeding that could cause mass mortality in the same species or many related species. This paper describes an incidence of mass deaths of the Common House Swift Apus affinis at Thengumarahada Village of Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu, southern India during February 2008. The samples of the dead birds were sent for toxicological and bacteriological examination at Southern Regional Disease Diagnostic Laboratory, Bangalore. Spot post mortems were also conducted by forest veterinarians. Results of the diagnostic analysis revealed that mass mortality might be due to extreme weather conditions leading to acute dehydration, shock and death. The postmortem reports say that the crop and the gastro intestinal tract (GI were found empty in all the cases, suggesting starvation. We thus conclude that unseasonal heavy rains and non availability of food could have led to hypothermia and starvation of birds over a long period resulting in mass mortality.

  3. [Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of enteroviruses inducing the outbreaks and seasonal rises of morbidity in different regions of the Republic of Belarus].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amvros'eva, T V; Poklonskaia, N V; Bezruchko, A A; Fisenko, E G

    2006-01-01

    As shown by the results of the analysis, viruses ECHO 30 circulating over the period of the last 8 years in Belarus, belonged to 3 different genetic subtypes which earlier or simultaneously circulated in other European states. The outbreaks of enterovirus infections (EVI) were facilitated by the appearance of a genetic viral subtype, relatively "new" for human population, and which had not earlier circulated on this territory. Thus, the development of outbreak morbidity in 2003 was caused by a change in the dominating subtype of virus ECHO 30, which caused the outbreak of 1997. The relatively "soft" rise of morbidity in 2004 was due to the continued circulation of the same subtype of virus ECHO 30, that in 2003. The largest outbreaks of EVI in the Republic of Belarus had a number of considerable differences: the outbreak of 1997 in Gomel was characterized by the genetic heterogeneity of infective agents, being simultaneously geographically localized within the limits of one city. However, during the outbreaks of 2003 the circulation of genetically closely related viruses of the one subtype among the population of geographically remote regions of the country was registered.

  4. The effects of climate variables on the outbreak of dengue in Queensland 2008-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Tasnim; Bambrick, Hilary

    2013-07-04

    Outbreaks of dengue occur in Queensland, Australia nearly every summer. In 2008-2009, there was an unusually large, protracted outbreak of dengue, comprised of 1,200 cases. We investigated the weather variables and their contribution to the 2008-2009 dengue outbreak in Queensland. Case data were obtained from the Communicable Disease Branch of Queensland Health for 2000-2010 for the towns of Cairns and Townsville. Monthly weather data (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). We used a negative binomial model to test associations between these variables and dengue. Lagged models were also created for one, two and three months. Our models suggest all weather variables but not the SOI were associated with dengue in both Cairns and Townsville, without a lag (pRainfall and temperature preceding the 2008-2009 outbreak were also not significantly different (p<0.01) from other years. Short-term (non-lagged) weather variables were associated with the number of dengue cases in Cairns and Townsville. No lag was seen and no association was seen between the SOI and the number of dengue cases, which suggests there may be limited potential to predict large dengue outbreaks using climate variability. The large outbreak in 2008-2009 may have been driven by other, non-weather factors in addition to the immediate weather effect.

  5. Fuel oil-induced adrenal hypertrophy in ranch mink (Mustela vison): effects of sex, fuel oil weathering, and response to adrenocorticotropic hormone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr, F C; Lasley, B; Bursian, S

    2010-01-01

    Environmental contamination by petroleum hydrocarbons from anthropogenic sources can be a cause of stress for free-ranging wildlife. The response of wildlife to chemical contaminants requires that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis be precisely regulated to allow for proper glucocorticoid-mediated adaptive responses. Chronic oral exposure to low concentrations of bunker C fuel oil causes the development of adrenal hypertrophy in male ranch mink (Mustela vison) without increasing serum or fecal glucocorticoid concentrations. This hypertrophy is an adaptive response to fuel oil-induced adrenal insufficiency. To determine if the same phenomenon occurs in female mink or male mink exposed to artificially weathered fuel oil, female mink were fed 0 ppm (mineral oil) or 420 ppm fuel oil and male mink were exposed to 0 ppm, 420 ppm fuel oil, or 480 ppm artificially weathered fuel oil in the diet for 60-62 days. At the end of the exposure, serum glucocorticoid concentrations were assayed along with body and organ weight measurements. Fecal glucocorticoid concentrations were assayed at time points throughout the exposure. Male mink fed fuel oil or weathered fuel oil and female mink fed fuel oil had adrenal enlargement without any significant increases in the serum or fecal concentration of glucocorticoids, which is consistent with fuel oil-induced adrenal insufficiency. To address the physiological consequences of adrenal insufficiency, fuel oil-exposed male mink were administered an adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) stimulation test. Fuel oil-exposed animals had a smaller incremental increase in serum glucocorticoid concentration after ACTH challenge compared to control animals. Our findings provide further evidence that the HPA axis of fuel oil-exposed animals is compromised and, therefore, not able to respond appropriately to the diverse stressors found in the environment.

  6. Enterovirus 71 Outbreak, Brunei

    OpenAIRE

    AbuBakar, Sazaly; Sam, I-Ching; Yusof, Jaliha; Lim, Meng Keang; Misbah, Suzana; ,; Hooi, Poh-Sim

    2009-01-01

    Enterovirus 71 (EV71) outbreaks occur periodically in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2006, Brunei reported its first major outbreak of EV71 infections, associated with fatalities from neurologic complications. Isolated EV71 strains formed a distinct lineage with low diversity within subgenogroup B5, suggesting recent introduction and rapid spread within Brunei.

  7. Biosurveillance in outbreak investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaydos-Daniels, S Cornelia; Rojas Smith, Lucia; Farris, Tonya R

    2013-03-01

    Following the terrorist attacks of September 11 and the anthrax attacks in 2001, public health entities implemented automated surveillance systems based on disease syndromes for early detection of bioterror events and to increase timeliness of responses. Despite widespread adoption, syndromic surveillance systems' ability to provide early notification of outbreaks is unproven, and there is little documentation on their role in outbreak response. We hypothesized that biosurveillance is used in practice to augment classical outbreak investigations, and we used case studies conducted in 2007-08 to determine (1) which steps in outbreak investigations were best served by biosurveillance, and (2) which steps presented the greatest opportunities for improvement. The systems used in the case studies varied in how they functioned, and there were examples in which syndromic systems had identified outbreaks before other methods. Biosurveillance was used successfully for all steps of outbreak investigations. Key advantages of syndromic systems were sensitivity, timeliness, and flexibility and as a source of data for situational awareness. Limitations of biosurveillance were a lack of specificity, reliance on chief complaint data, and a lack of formal training for users. Linking syndromic data to triage notes and medical chart data would substantially increase the value of biosurveillance in the conduct of outbreak investigations and reduce the burden on health department staff.

  8. Environmental triggers of Past Ebola Outbreaks in Africa, 1981 - 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dartevelle, S.; NguyRobertson, A. L.

    2016-12-01

    Ebola virus, especially its most common and lethal form, Zaire Ebolavirus, has eluded scientists nearly 50 years. What is its primary host? Why does it go dormant to suddenly to reappear full force years later? What are the driving forces behind its intriguing dynamic? It has been surmised that local environmental factors (such as droughts, seasons) might be at play behind the on-and-off Ebola outbreak outbursts. However, so far, no clear lead has been demonstrated making Ebola a constant hidden lethal menace lurking in the environment for many African communities. We have analyzed long-term time-series of three environmental variables that influence the controlling factor behind the cycle of Ebola virus outbreaks: (i) vegetation health, as determined from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) collected by AVHRR and MODIS satellite sensors, and the weather variables (ii) temperature and (iii) precipitation from the Climate Forecast System ver. 2. Time series data were averaged monthly and spatially over a 100 km grid around past known outbreak locations. Seasonal effects were removed from these time series before applying statistical analyses identifying causal linkages between NDVI, temperature, precipitation and Ebola outbreaks. Likewise, possible tipping-points prior to outbreaks (i.e., early warning signals of an upcoming outbreak) were identified. Our results indicate that there is a causal dynamic link between outbreaks and the three environmental variables examined months prior to an outbreak. This was likely due to an abnormal change in the local precipitation pattern which influence NDVI values and to a lesser extent temperature. Furthermore, our results provide evidence that these factors demonstrate early warning signals of a dynamical system at a tipping-point, prior to a future outbreak. These tipping-point or early warning models may open new ways to furthermore develop forecast models of future Ebola outbreaks. [US Government — Approved

  9. National Outbreak Reporting System

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) is a web-based platform designed to support reporting to CDC by local, state, and territorial health departments in the...

  10. An Outbreak of Late-Term Abortions, Premature Births, and Congenital Deformities Associated with a Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus 1 Subtype b that Induces Thrombocytopenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) genotype 1 subtype b caused an outbreak of premature births, late term abortions, brachygnathism, growth retardation, brain deformities and rare other skeletal deformities in Holstein calves born to first calf heifers on one dairy. Experimental challenge of three,...

  11. The use of weather surveillance radar and high-resolution three dimensional weather data to monitor a spruce budworm mass exodus flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan Boulanger; Frédéric Fabry; Alamelu Kilambi; Deepa S. Pureswaran; Brian R. Sturtevant; Rémi. Saint-Amant

    2017-01-01

    The likely spread of the current spruce budworm (SBW; Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak fromhigh to low density areas brings to the forefront a pressing need to understand its dispersal dynamics and to document mass exodus flights in relation to weather patterns. In this study, we used the weather surveillance radar of Val d'Irène in...

  12. Monthly Weather Review

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  13. Weather Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacmeister, Julio T.

    Awareness of weather and concern about weather in the proximate future certainly must have accompanied the emergence of human self-consciousness. Although weather is a basic idea in human existence, it is difficult to define precisely.

  14. Evaluation of the Repeatability of the Delta Q Duct Leakage Testing TechniqueIncluding Investigation of Robust Analysis Techniques and Estimates of Weather Induced Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickerhoff, Darryl; Walker, Iain

    2008-08-01

    The DeltaQ test is a method of estimating the air leakage from forced air duct systems. Developed primarily for residential and small commercial applications it uses the changes in blower door test results due to forced air system operation. Previous studies established the principles behind DeltaQ testing, but raised issues of precision of the test, particularly for leaky homes on windy days. Details of the measurement technique are available in an ASTM Standard (ASTM E1554-2007). In order to ease adoption of the test method, this study answers questions regarding the uncertainty due to changing weather during the test (particularly changes in wind speed) and the applicability to low leakage systems. The first question arises because the building envelope air flows and pressures used in the DeltaQ test are influenced by weather induced pressures. Variability in wind induced pressures rather than temperature difference induced pressures dominates this effect because the wind pressures change rapidly over the time period of a test. The second question needs to answered so that DeltaQ testing can be used in programs requiring or giving credit for tight ducts (e.g., California's Building Energy Code (CEC 2005)). DeltaQ modeling biases have been previously investigated in laboratory studies where there was no weather induced changes in envelope flows and pressures. Laboratory work by Andrews (2002) and Walker et al. (2004) found biases of about 0.5% of forced air system blower flow and individual test uncertainty of about 2% of forced air system blower flow. The laboratory tests were repeated by Walker and Dickerhoff (2006 and 2008) using a new ramping technique that continuously varied envelope pressures and air flows rather than taking data at pre-selected pressure stations (as used in ASTM E1554-2003 and other previous studies). The biases and individual test uncertainties for ramping were found to be very close (less than 0.5% of air handler flow) to those

  15. Weathered MC252 crude oil-induced anemia and abnormal erythroid morphology in double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) with light microscopic and ultrastructural description of Heinz bodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harr, Kendal E; Cunningham, Fred L; Pritsos, Chris A; Pritsos, Karen L; Muthumalage, Thivanka; Dorr, Brian S; Horak, Katherine E; Hanson-Dorr, Katie C; Dean, Karen M; Cacela, Dave; McFadden, Andrew K; Link, Jane E; Healy, Katherine A; Tuttle, Pete; Bursian, Steven J

    2017-07-19

    Injury assessment of birds following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill in 2010 was part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment. One reported effect was hemolytic anemia with the presence of Heinz bodies (HB) in birds, however, the role of route and magnitude of exposure to oil is unknown. The purpose of the present study was to determine if double-crested cormorants (Phalacocorax auritis; DCCO) exposed orally and dermally to artificially weathered crude oil would develop hemolytic anemia including HB and reticulocytosis. In the oral experiment, sub-adult, mixed-sex DCCOs were fed control (n = 8) or oil-injected fish with a daily target dose of 5 (n = 9) or 10 (n = 9) ml oil/kg for 21 days. Then, subadult control (n = 12) and treated (n = 13) cormorant groups of similar sex-ratio were dermally treated with approximately 13ml of water or weathered MC252 crude oil, respectively, every 3 days for 6 dosages approximating 20% surface coverage. Collected whole blood samples were analyzed by light (new methylene blue) and transmission electron microscopy. Both oral and dermal treatment with weathered DWH MC252 crude oil induced regenerative, but inadequately compensated, anemia due to hemolysis and hematochezia as indicated by decreased packed cell volume, relative increase in reticulocytes with lack of difference in corrected reticulocyte count, and morphologic evidence of oxidant damage at the ultrastructural level. Hemoglobin precipitation, HB formation, degenerate organelles, and systemic oxidant damage were documented. Heinz bodies were typically <2µm in length and smaller than in mammals. These oblong cytoplasmic inclusions were difficult to see upon routine blood smear evaluation and lacked the classic button appearance found in mammalian red blood cells. They could be found as light, homogeneous blue inclusions upon new methylene blue staining. Ultrastructurally, HB appeared as homogeneous, electron-dense structures within the cytosol and lacked membranous

  16. Planning for smallpox outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Neil M.; Keeling, Matt J.; John Edmunds, W.; Gani, Raymond; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Anderson, Roy M.; Leach, Steve

    2003-10-01

    Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

  17. Weather in Your Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannegieter, Sandy; Wirkler, Linda

    Facts and activities related to weather and meteorology are presented in this unit. Separate sections cover the following topics: (1) the water cycle; (2) clouds; (3) the Beaufort Scale for rating the speed and force of wind; (4) the barometer; (5) weather prediction; (6) fall weather in Iowa (sleet, frost, and fog); (7) winter weather in Iowa…

  18. Measles (Rubeola) Cases and Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... outbreak of 383 cases, occurring primarily among unvaccinated Amish communities in Ohio. Many of the cases in ... of spread in communities with groups of unvaccinated people. The U.S. experienced several outbreaks in 2008 including ...

  19. Responding to Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-04-27

    In this podcast, a team of CDC specialists travels to Uganda and tracks the source of an Ebola outbreak where CDC scientists are studying bats for clues to the Ebola mystery.  Created: 4/27/2009 by National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne, and Enteric Diseases (NCZVED).   Date Released: 4/27/2009.

  20. Foodborne Norovirus Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-09-17

    Dr. Aron Hall, a CDC epidemiologist specializing in noroviruses, discusses foodborne norovirus outbreaks.  Created: 9/17/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID); National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 9/17/2012.

  1. Investigating Listeria Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2013-01-04

    Dr. Emily Cartwright, Infectious Disease fellow at Emory University and former EIS Officer with CDC’s Division of Foodborne, Waterborne, and Environmental Diseases discusses foodborne Listeria outbreaks.  Created: 1/4/2013 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 1/8/2013.

  2. Forecasting rodent outbreaks in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leirs, Herwig; Verhagen, Ron; Verheyen, Walter

    1996-01-01

    1. Rainfall data were collated for years preceding historical outbreaks of Mastomys rats in East Africa in order to test the hypothesis that such outbreaks occur after long dry periods. 2. Rodent outbreaks were generally not preceded by long dry periods. 3. Population dynamics of Mastomys natalen...

  3. Effects of weather and plague-induced die-offs of prairie dogs on the fleas of northern grasshopper mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salkeld, Daniel J; Stapp, Paul

    2009-05-01

    Plague, the disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, can have devastating impacts on black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus Ord). Other mammal hosts living on prairie dog colonies may be important in the transmission and maintenance of plague. We examined the flea populations of northern grasshopper mice (Onychomys leucogaster Wied) before, during, and after plague epizootics in northern Colorado and studied the influence of host and environmental factors on flea abundance patterns. Grasshopper mice were frequently infested with high numbers of fleas, most commonly Pleochaetis exilis Jordan and Thrassis fotus Jordan. Flea loads changed in response to both environmental temperature and rainfall. After plague-induced prairie dog die-offs, flea loads and likelihood of infestation were unchanged for P. exilis, but T. fotus loads declined.

  4. Heavy rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks: the Walkerton example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auld, Heather; MacIver, D; Klaassen, J

    Recent research indicates that excessive rainfall has been a significant contributor to historical waterborne disease outbreaks. The Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, provided an analysis and testimony to the Walkerton Inquiry on the excessive rainfall events, including an assessment of the historical significance and expected return periods of the rainfall amounts. While the onset of the majority of the Walkerton, Ontario, Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter outbreak occurred several days after a heavy rainfall on May 12, the accumulated 5-d rainfall amounts from 8-12 May were particularly significant. These 5-d accumulations could, on average, only be expected once every 60 yr or more in Walkerton and once every 100 yr or so in the heaviest rainfall area to the south of Walkerton. The significant link between excess rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks, in conjunction with other multiple risk factors, indicates that meteorological and climatological conditions need to be considered by water managers, public health officials, and private citizens as a significant risk factor for water contamination. A system to identify and project the impacts of such challenging or extreme weather conditions on water supply systems could be developed using a combination of weather/climate monitoring information and weather prediction or quantitative precipitation forecast information. The use of weather monitoring and forecast information or a "wellhead alert system" could alert water system and water supply managers on the potential response of their systems to challenging weather conditions and additional requirements to protect health. Similar approaches have recently been used by beach managers in parts of the United States to predict day-to-day water quality for beach advisories.

  5. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davey, Victoria

    The emergence of new, transmissible infections poses a significant threat to human populations. As the 2009 novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic and the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic demonstrate, we have observed the effects of rapid spread of illness in non-immune populations and experienced disturbing uncertainty about future potential for human suffering and societal disruption. Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of a newly emerged infectious organism are usually gathered in retrospect as the outbreak evolves and affects populations. Knowledge of potential effects of outbreaks and epidemics and most importantly, mitigation at community, regional, national and global levels is needed to inform policy that will prepare and protect people. Study of possible outcomes of evolving epidemics and application of mitigation strategies is not possible in observational or experimental research designs, but computational modeling allows conduct of `virtual' experiments. Results of well-designed computer simulations can aid in the selection and implementation of strategies that limit illness and death, and maintain systems of healthcare and other critical resources that are vital to public protection. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

  6. Land Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  7. Project Weather and Water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Pal J. Kirkeby

    2000-01-01

    Introduces Project Weather and Water with the goal of developing and testing ideas of how to implement weather topics and water physics in an integrated way. Discusses teacher preparation, implementation, and evaluation of this project. (ASK)

  8. Pilot Weather Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

  9. Natural Weathering Exposure Station

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

  10. Surface Weather Observations Hourly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  11. Surface Weather Observing Manuals

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Manuals and instructions for taking weather observations. Includes the annual Weather Bureau 'Instructions for Preparing Meteorological Forms...' and early airways...

  12. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  13. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  14. National Convective Weather Diagnostic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  15. Internet Weather Source

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  16. Weather Radar Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

  17. The power of weather

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Huurman; Francesco Ravazzolo; Chen Zhou

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the predictive power of weather for electricity prices in day ahead markets in real time. We find that next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of Scandinavian day-ahead electricity prices substantially in terms of point forecasts, suggesting that weather forecasts can price the weather premium. This improvement strengthens the confidence in the forecasting model, which results in high center-mass predictive densities. In density forecast, such a predictive...

  18. Application of Humidity Data for Predictions of Influenza Outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, J.; Thrastarson, H. T.; Yeo, E.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal influenza outbreaks infect millions of people, cause hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide, and leave an immense economic footprint. Potential forecasting of the timing and intensity of these outbreaks can help mitigation and response efforts (e.g., the management and organization of vaccines, drugs and other resources). Absolute (or specific) humidity has been identified as an important driver of the seasonal behavior of influenza outbreaks in temperate regions. Building upon this result, we incorporate humidity data from both NASA's AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder) instrument and ERA-Interim re-analysis into a SIRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) type numerical epidemiological model, comprising a prediction system for influenza outbreaks. Data for influenza activity is obtained from sources such as Google Flu Trends and the CDC (Center for Disease Control) and used for comparison and assimilation. The accuracy and limitations of the prediction system are tested with hindcasts of outbreaks in the United States for the years 2005-2015. Our results give support to the hypothesis that local weather conditions drive the seasonality of influenza in temperate regions. The implementation of influenza forecasts that make use of NCEP humidity forecasts is also discussed.

  19. Weather Fundamentals: Meteorology. [Videotape].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998

    The videos in this educational series, for grades 4-7, help students understand the science behind weather phenomena through dramatic live-action footage, vivid animated graphics, detailed weather maps, and hands-on experiments. This episode (23 minutes) looks at how meteorologists gather and interpret current weather data collected from sources…

  20. Cold-Weather Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Surgery? A Week of Healthy Breakfasts Shyness Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth > For Teens > Cold-Weather Sports A A A What's in this article? ... Equipment Ahh, winter! Shorter days. Frigid temperatures. Foul weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports ...

  1. Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karahan, Sinan; Windhorst, Robert D.

    2009-01-01

    Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots

  2. Weather Conditions, Weather Information and Car Crashes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriaan Perrels

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic safety is the result of a complex interaction of factors, and causes behind road vehicle crashes require different measures to reduce their impacts. This study assesses how strongly the variation in daily winter crash rates associates with weather conditions in Finland. This is done by illustrating trends and spatiotemporal variation in the crash rates, by showing how a GIS application can evidence the association between temporary rises in regional crash rates and the occurrence of bad weather, and with a regression model on crash rate sensitivity to adverse weather conditions. The analysis indicates that a base rate of crashes depending on non-weather factors exists, and some combinations of extreme weather conditions are able to substantially push up crash rates on days with bad weather. Some spatial causation factors, such as variation of geophysical characteristics causing systematic differences in the distributions of weather variables, exist. Yet, even in winter, non-spatial factors are normally more significant. GIS data can support optimal deployment of rescue services and enhance in-depth quantitative analysis by helping to identify the most appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. However, the supportive role of GIS should not be inferred as existence of highly significant spatial causation.

  3. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  4. [Legionnaire's disease outbreak].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrufet-Barqué, M Pilar; Sauca-Subias, Goretti; Force-Sanmartín, Lluís; Felip-Benach, Angela; Martínez-Pérez, Encarna; Capdevila-Morell, Josep A

    2006-02-11

    To describe an outbreak of Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 in Mataró, Catalunya, Spain, in August 2002. The source of the microorganism was a cooling tower. Prospective and observational study with analysis of epidemiological, clinical, and microbiological data. 151 patients were affected (62% male), with a mean age of 58.4 years old. Seven patients were classified as Pontiac Fever and 144 suffered from pneumonia. The diagnosis of pneumonia was confirmed in 79% of cases, was considered suspicious in 14% and probable in 7%. Forty per cent of patients were smokers and 53.5% had comorbidities, mainly diabetes mellitus (22%). Chief symptoms were fever (97%), chills and muscular pain (63% respectively), headache (54%) and cough (53%). Pulmonary condensation was the more frequent radiological feature (71%). Normal pulmonary exploration was observed in 38%. Forty-three per cent of cases were severely ill, and 16% of patients belonged to Fine's IV and V class. Antigenuria was the most important test for diagnosis, which confirmed 76% of cases. Legionella spp. was obtained in respiratory secretions of 10 patients. Molecular analysis confirmed clonality between respiratory microorganisms and that obtained in the cooling tower. The outbreak involved an important number of subjects in a short period of time. Antigenuria was the most useful test. However, the isolation of L. pneumophila from patients permitted the prompt identification of microorganism's source in a cooling tower. The low mortality observed probably relates to a rapid diagnosis and its target treatment.

  5. Disease Outbreaks Caused by Water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craun, Gunther F.

    1978-01-01

    Presents a literature review of the disease outbreaks caused by drinking polluted water, covering publications of 1976-77. Some of the waterborn outbreaks included are: (1) cholera; (2) gastroenteritis; (3) giardiasis; and (4) typhoid fever and salmonellosis. A list of 66 references is also presented. (HM)

  6. Increased Rotavirus Prevalence in Diarrheal Outbreak Precipitated by Localized Flooding, Solomon Islands, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Forrest K; Ko, Albert I; Becha, Chris; Joshua, Cynthia; Musto, Jennie; Thomas, Sarah; Ronsse, Axelle; Kirkwood, Carl D; Sio, Alison; Aumua, Audrey; Nilles, Eric J

    2016-05-01

    Flooding on 1 of the Solomon Islands precipitated a nationwide epidemic of diarrhea that spread to regions unaffected by flooding and caused >6,000 cases and 27 deaths. Rotavirus was identified in 38% of case-patients tested in the city with the most flooding. Outbreak potential related to weather reinforces the need for global rotavirus vaccination.

  7. Benign Weather Modification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    operational interest in modifying weather to support combat operations increased, ultimately leading to a multi-service effort called PROJECT POPEYE . The goal...This, coupled with the revelations concerning weather modification use in the Vietnam War (PROJECT POPEYE ), was a double blow to weather modification...AWS-TR-74-247, June 1984. Cobb, James T., Jr., et. al. Project Popeye : Final Report. China Lake, CA: Naval Weapons Center, 1967. Langmuir, Irving

  8. Is Weather Chaotic?

    CERN Document Server

    Raidl, A

    1998-01-01

    The correlation dimension and K2-entropy are estimated from meteorological time- series. The results lead us to claim that seasonal variability of weather is under influence of low dimensional dynamics, whereas changes of weather from day to day are governed by high dimensional system(s). Error-doubling time of this system is less than 3 days. We suggest that the outstanding feature of the weather dynamics is deterministic chaos.

  9. Space Weather Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

  10. Space Weather Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Space Weather Analysis archives are model output of ionospheric, thermospheric and magnetospheric particle populations, energies and electrodynamics

  11. Why Consumers Buy Lottery Tickets When the Sun Goes Down on Them. The Depleting Nature of Weather-Induced Bad Moods.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Bruyneel (Sabrina); S. Dewitte (Siegfried); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.G. Dekimpe (Marnik)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractWe propose that weather conditions can influence consumers’ engagement in lottery play. A longitudinal study on the extent of lottery play in Belgium shows that lottery expenditures are indeed higher after reduced exposure to sunshine, even after controlling for people’s inertia, time-v

  12. Cholera outbreaks in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramamurthy, Thandavarayan; Sharma, Naresh C

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is a global health problem as several thousands of cases and deaths occur each year. The unique epidemiologic attribute of the disease is its propensity to occur as outbreaks that may flare-up into epidemics, if not controlled. The causative bacterial pathogen Vibrio cholerae prevails in the environment and infects humans whenever there is a breakdown in the public health component. The Indian subcontinent is vulnerable to this disease due its vast coastlines with areas of poor sanitation, unsafe drinking water, and overcrowding. Recently, it was shown that climatic conditions also play a major role in the persistence and spread of cholera. Constant change in the biotypes and serotypes of V. cholerae are also important aspects that changes virulence and survival of the pathogen. Such continuous changes increase the infection ability of the pathogen affecting the susceptible population including the children. The short-term carrier status of V. cholerae has been studied well at community level and this facet significantly contributes to the recurrence of cholera. Several molecular tools recognized altering clonality of V. cholerae in relation with the advent of a serogroup or serotype. Rapid identification systems were formulated for the timely detection of the pathogen so as to identify and control the outbreak and institute proper treatment of the patients. The antimicrobials used in the past are no longer useful in the treatment of cholera as V. cholerae has acquired several mechanisms for multiple antimicrobial resistance. This upsurge in antimicrobial resistance directly influences the management of the disease. This chapter provides an overview of cholera prevalence in India, possible sources of infection, and molecular epidemiology along with antimicrobial resistance of V. cholerae.

  13. Weather and emotional state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spasova, Z.

    2010-09-01

    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  14. Evaporation and weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, H.A.R. de; Feddes, R.A.; Holtslag, A.A.M.; Lablans, W.N.; Schuurmans, C.J.E.; Shuttleworth, W.J.

    1987-01-01

    Data on evaporation to be used in agriculture, hydrology, forestry, etc. are usually supplied by meteorologists. Meteorologists themselves also use evaporation data. Air mass properties determining weather are strongly dependent on the input of water vapour from the surface. So for weather

  15. Designing a Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Harry T.

    2012-01-01

    The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

  16. Evaporation and weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, H.A.R. de; Feddes, R.A.; Holtslag, A.A.M.; Lablans, W.N.; Schuurmans, C.J.E.; Shuttleworth, W.J.

    1987-01-01

    Data on evaporation to be used in agriculture, hydrology, forestry, etc. are usually supplied by meteorologists. Meteorologists themselves also use evaporation data. Air mass properties determining weather are strongly dependent on the input of water vapour from the surface. So for weather predictio

  17. Weather and road capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore......, the capacity of the highway seems to be reduced in bad weather and there are indications that travel time variability is also increased, at least in free-flow conditions. Heavy precipitation reduces speed and capacity by around 5-8%, whereas snow primarily reduces capacity. Other weather variables......-parametrically against traffic density and in step 2 the residuals from step 1 are regressed linearly against the weather variables. The choice of a non-parametric method is made to avoid constricting ties from a parametric specification and because the focus here is not on the relationship between traffic flow...

  18. Weather in Mountainous Terrain (Overcoming Scientific Barriers to Weather Support)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-15

    Weather in Mountainous Terrain (Overcoming Scientific Barriers to Weather Support) Fiesta Resort & Conference Center Tempe, AZ February 1...Meteorology Overcoming Scientific Barriers to Weather Support Fiesta Resort & Conference Center Tempe, AZ February 1 & 2, 2010 Hosted by University

  19. Fire severity unaffected by spruce beetle outbreak in spruce-fir forests in southwestern Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrus, Robert A; Veblen, Thomas T; Harvey, Brian J; Hart, Sarah J

    2016-04-01

    Recent large and severe outbreaks of native bark beetles have raised concern among the general public and land managers about potential for amplified fire activity in western North America. To date, the majority of studies examining bark beetle outbreaks and subsequent fire severity in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have focused on outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests, but few studies, particularly field studies, have addressed the effects of the severity of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) infestation on subsequent fire severity in subalpine Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) forests. In Colorado, the annual area infested by spruce beetle outbreaks is rapidly rising, while MPB outbreaks are subsiding; therefore understanding this relationship is of growing importance. We collected extensive field data in subalpine forests in the eastern San Juan Mountains, southwestern Colorado, USA, to investigate whether a gray-stage (beetle infestation affected fire severity. Contrary to the expectation that bark beetle infestation alters subsequent fire severity, correlation and multivariate generalized linear regression analysis revealed no influence of pre-fire spruce beetle severity on nearly all field or remotely sensed measurements of fire severity. Findings were consistent across moderate and extreme burning conditions. In comparison to severity of the pre-fire beetle outbreak, we found that topography, pre-outbreak basal area, and weather conditions exerted a stronger effect on fire severity. Our finding that beetle infestation did not alter fire severity is consistent with previous retrospective studies examining fire activity following other bark beetle outbreaks and reiterates the overriding influence of climate that creates conditions conducive to large, high-severity fires in the subalpine zone of Colorado. Both bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires

  20. Repetitive dengue outbreaks in East Africa: A proposed phased mitigation approach may reduce its impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Marycelin; Villinger, Jandouwe; Masiga, Daniel K

    2016-05-01

    Dengue outbreaks have persistently occurred in eastern African countries for several decades. We assessed each outbreak to identify risk factors and propose a framework for prevention and impact mitigation. Seven out of ten countries in eastern Africa and three islands in the Indian Ocean have experienced dengue outbreaks between 1823 and 2014. Major risk factors associated with past dengue outbreaks include climate, virus and vector genetics and human practices. Appropriate use of dengue diagnostic tools and their interpretation are necessary for both outbreak investigations and sero-epidemiological studies. Serosurvey findings during inter-epidemic periods have not been adequately utilised to prevent re-occurrence of dengue outbreaks. Local weather variables may be used to predict dengue outbreaks, while entomological surveillance can complement other disease-mitigation efforts during outbreaks and identify risk-prone areas during inter-epidemic periods. The limitations of past dengue outbreak responses and the enormous socio-economic impacts of the disease on human health are highlighted. Its repeated occurrence in East Africa refutes previous observations that susceptibility may depend on race. Alternate hypotheses on heterotypic protection among flaviviruses may not be applied to all ecologies. Prevention and mitigation of severe dengue outbreaks should necessarily consider the diverse factors associated with their occurrence. Implementation of phased dengue mitigation activities can enforce timely and judicious use of scarce resources, promote environmental sanitation, and drive behavioural change, hygienic practices and community-based vector control. Understanding dengue epidemiology and clinical symptoms, as determined by its evolution, are significant to preventing future dengue epidemics.

  1. Comparison of Influenza Outbreaks in the Republic of Kazakhstan and Russia Induced by 2009 Yearly New Variant of A(H1N1)Influenza Virus

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Karpova L S; Ospanov K S; Baiserkin B S; Boibosinov E U; Popovtseva N M; Stolyarova T P; Stolyarov K A; Mamadaliyev S M; Khairullin B M; Sandybayev N T; Kydyrbayev Zh K; Orynbayev M B

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the work is the comparison of the epidemiology of influenza and acute respiratory virus infections(ARVI)in the Republic of Kazakhstan with the corresponding influenza epidemic in Russia induced by influenza pandemic virus A/California/07/2009 in 2009. Data on influenza and ARVI from the Republic of Kazakhstan and Federal Center of influenza was collected and investigated over the course of several weeks from hospitalized patients with the same diagnosis among all population and in age groups on 16 territories of Kazakhstan and in 49 major cities of Russia. The epidemic in Kazakhstan resembled the Russian epidemic in terms of its abnormally early beginning,expression of monoaetiology,the spread of the epidemic into all territories and start of the epidemics among adult population. High percentage of hospitalized people and lethal outcome were registered in this epidemic. Similarity of epidemic process character in corresponding border-line territories of both countries was found out.

  2. Oil Rig Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather observations taken at offshore platforms along the United States coastlines. The majority are located in oil-rich areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of...

  3. Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

  4. Cape Kennedy Weather Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Digitized data taken from original weather observations taken at Cape Kennedy Air Force Station, Florida. Elements recorded are wind speed and direction,...

  5. Monthly Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms is a set of historical manuscript records for the period 1893-1948. The collection includes two very similar form types: Form...

  6. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  7. Weather Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

  8. Space Weather Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

  9. Genetically optimizing weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, S. B.; Staats, Kai; Romero-Colmenero, Encarni

    2016-07-01

    humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction) into a database. Built upon this database, we have developed a remarkably simple approach to derive a functional weather predictor. The aim is provide up to the minute local weather predictions in order to e.g. prepare dome environment conditions ready for night time operations or plan, prioritize and update weather dependent observing queues. In order to predict the weather for the next 24 hours, we take the current live weather readings and search the entire archive for similar conditions. Predictions are made against an averaged, subsequent 24 hours of the closest matches for the current readings. We use an Evolutionary Algorithm to optimize our formula through weighted parameters. The accuracy of the predictor is routinely tested and tuned against the full, updated archive to account for seasonal trends and total, climate shifts. The live (updated every 5 minutes) SALT weather predictor can be viewed here: http://www.saao.ac.za/ sbp/suthweather_predict.html

  10. Cockpit weather information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Jeffrey Chen-Yu (Inventor)

    2000-01-01

    Weather information, periodically collected from throughout a global region, is periodically assimilated and compiled at a central source and sent via a high speed data link to a satellite communication service, such as COMSAT. That communication service converts the compiled weather information to GSDB format, and transmits the GSDB encoded information to an orbiting broadcast satellite, INMARSAT, transmitting the information at a data rate of no less than 10.5 kilobits per second. The INMARSAT satellite receives that data over its P-channel and rebroadcasts the GDSB encoded weather information, in the microwave L-band, throughout the global region at a rate of no less than 10.5 KB/S. The transmission is received aboard an aircraft by means of an onboard SATCOM receiver and the output is furnished to a weather information processor. A touch sensitive liquid crystal panel display allows the pilot to select the weather function by touching a predefined icon overlain on the display's surface and in response a color graphic display of the weather is displayed for the pilot.

  11. Simulation study of the mechanisms underlying outbreaks of clinical disease caused by Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae in finishing pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinkenberg, D; Tobias, T J; Bouma, A; van Leengoed, L A M G; Stegeman, J A

    2014-10-01

    Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae is a major cause of respiratory disease in pigs. Many farms are endemically infected without apparent disease, but occasionally severe outbreaks of pleuropneumonia occur. To prevent and control these outbreaks without antibiotics, the underlying mechanisms of these outbreaks need to be understood. Outbreaks are probably initiated by a trigger (common risk factor) changing the host-pathogen interaction, but it is unclear whether this trigger causes all cases directly (trigger mechanism), or whether the first case starts a transmission chain inducing disease in the infected contacts (transmission mechanism). The aim of this study was to identify conditions under which these mechanisms could cause A. pleuropneumoniae outbreaks, and to assess means for prevention and control. Outbreaks were first characterised by data from a literature review, defining an average outbreak at 12 weeks of age, affecting 50% of animals within 4 days. Simple mathematical models describing the two mechanisms can reproduce average outbreaks, with two observations supporting the trigger mechanism: (1) disease should be transmitted 50 times faster than supported by literature if there is a transmission chain; and (2) the trigger mechanism is consistent with the absence of reported outbreaks in young pigs as they have not yet been colonised by the bacterium. In conclusion, outbreaks of A. pleuropneumoniae on endemic farms are most likely caused by a trigger inducing pneumonia in already infected pigs, but more evidence is needed to identify optimum preventive interventions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Norovirus: U.S. Trends and Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... from contaminated water and raspberries irrigated with contaminated water have caused norovirus outbreaks. Norovirus on Cruise Ships Over 90% of diarrheal disease outbreaks on cruise ships are caused by norovirus ( ...

  13. Drought May Beckon Bigger West Nile Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_163495.html Drought May Beckon Bigger West Nile Outbreaks Dry environment ... found that epidemics were larger during years of drought. There were also bigger outbreaks in areas that ...

  14. TOWARDS MODELING DISEASE OUTBREAK NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farag Azzedin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Disease outbreak detection, monitoring and notification systems play an important role in assessing threats to public health since disease outbreaks are becoming increasingly common world-wide. There are several systems in use around the world, with coverage of national, international and global disease outbreaks. These systems use different taxonomies and classifications for the detection and prioritization of potential disease outbreaks. In this paper, we study and analyze the current disease outbreak systems. Subsequently, we extract features and functions of typical and generic disease outbreak systems. We then propose a generic model for disease outbreak notification systems. Our effort is directed towards standardizing the design process for typical disease outbreak systems.

  15. Lacreek NWR pelican disease outbreak briefing

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Briefing for the Region 6 Regional Biologist on a disease outbreak at Lacreek National Wildlife Refuge. Pelican were the most affected species by the outbreak. It is...

  16. Space weather & telecommunications

    CERN Document Server

    Goodman, John M

    2006-01-01

    This book is both a survey of practical concepts for forecasting the performance of various telecommunication systems as well as a balanced treatment of space-weather phenomena that give rise to telecommunication impairment episodes. It bridges the gap in the relationship that exists between the following two disciplines: space weather and telecommunication system performance. There are a number of books that address one of the two disciplines in some detail, but only merely mention the other as an afterthought. In this book the author has married the two disciplines so that the readership can

  17. Forecasting rodent outbreaks in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leirs, Herwig; Verhagen, Ron; Verheyen, Walter

    1996-01-01

    natalensis rats in Tanzania are significantly affected by the distribution of rainfall during the rainy season. 4. All previous rodent outbreaks in Tanzania were preceded by abundant rainfall early in the rainy season, i.e, towards the end of the year. 5. A flow chart is constructed to assess the likelihood...

  18. Chikungunya fever outbreak, Bhutan, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wangchuk, Sonam; Chinnawirotpisan, Piyawan; Dorji, Tshering; Tobgay, Tashi; Dorji, Tandin; Yoon, In-Kyu; Fernandez, Stefan

    2013-10-01

    In 2012, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was reported for the first time in Bhutan. IgM ELISA results were positive for 36/210 patient samples; PCR was positive for 32/81. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed that Bhutan CHIKV belongs to the East/Central/South African genotype. Appropriate responses to future outbreaks require a system of surveillance and improved laboratory capacity.

  19. Dress for the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.

    2010-01-01

    "If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

  20. Microbial Weathering of Olivine

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, D. S.; Longazo, T. G.; Wentworth, S. J.; Southam, G.

    2002-01-01

    Controlled microbial weathering of olivine experiments displays a unique style of nanoetching caused by biofilm attachment to mineral surfaces. We are investigating whether the morphology of biotic nanoetching can be used as a biosignature. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  1. Winter Weather: Indoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  2. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  3. Winter Weather Checklists

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  4. Weather at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruggeman, David Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-04-19

    This report gives general information about how to become a meteorologist and what kinds of jobs exist in that field. Then it goes into detail about why weather is monitored at LANL, how it is done, and where the data can be accessed online.

  5. Cold Weather Pet Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... they can be knocked over, potentially starting a fire. Check your furnace before the cold weather sets in to make ... avoided because of the risk of burns or fire. Heated pet mats should also be used ... to burrow, get them back inside quickly because they are showing signs of ...

  6. Dress for the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.

    2010-01-01

    "If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

  7. Weatherization Works: An interim report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kinney, L.F. [Synertech Systems Corp., Syracuse, NY (United States)

    1993-11-01

    The National Weatherization Evaluation is the first comprehensive evaluation of the Weatherization Assistance Program since 1984. The evaluation was designed to accomplish the following goals: Estimate energy savings and cost effectiveness; Assess nonenergy impacts; Describe the weatherization network; Characterize the eligible population and resources; and Identify factors influencing outcomes and opportunities for the future. As a national program, weatherization incorporates considerable diversity due to regional differences. Therefore, evaluation results are presented both in aggregate and for three climate regions: cold, moderate and hot.

  8. Weatherization Works: An interim report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kinney, L.F. [Synertech Systems Corp., Syracuse, NY (United States)

    1993-11-01

    The National Weatherization Evaluation is the first comprehensive evaluation of the Weatherization Assistance Program since 1984. The evaluation was designed to accomplish the following goals: Estimate energy savings and cost effectiveness; Assess nonenergy impacts; Describe the weatherization network; Characterize the eligible population and resources; and Identify factors influencing outcomes and opportunities for the future. As a national program, weatherization incorporates considerable diversity due to regional differences. Therefore, evaluation results are presented both in aggregate and for three climate regions: cold, moderate and hot.

  9. Space Weather Studies at Istanbul Technical University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaymaz, Zerefsan

    2016-07-01

    This presentation will introduce the Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory of Istanbul Technical University (ITU). It has been established to support the educational needs of the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011 to conduct scientific research in Space Weather, Space Environment, Space Environment-Spacecraft Interactions, Space instrumentation and Upper Atmospheric studies. Currently the laboratory has some essential infrastructure and the most instrumentation for ionospheric observations and ground induced currents from the magnetosphere. The laboratory has two subunits: SWIFT dealing with Space Weather Instrumentation and Forecasting unit and SWDPA dealing with Space Weather Data Processing and Analysis. The research area covers wide range of upper atmospheric and space science studies from ionosphere, ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, distant magnetotail, magnetopause and bow shock studies, as well as solar and solar wind disturbances and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. We also study the spacecraft environment interaction and novel plasma instrument design. Several scientific projects have been carried out in the laboratory. Operational objectives of our laboratory will be carried out with the collaboration of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory and the facilities are in the process of integration to their prediction services. Educational and research objectives, as well as the examples from the research carried out in our laboratory will be demonstrated in this presentation.

  10. Ecological consequences of mountain pine beetle outbreaks for wildlife in western North American forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saab, Victoria A.; Latif, Quresh S.; Rowland, Mary M.; Johnson, Tracey N.; Chalfoun, Anna D.; Buskirk, Steven W.; Heyward, Joslin E.; Dresser, Matthew A.

    2014-01-01

    Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) (MPB) outbreaks are increasingly prevalent in western North America, causing considerable ecological change in pine (Pinus spp.) forests with important implications for wildlife. We reviewed studies examining wildlife responses to MPB outbreaks and postoutbreak salvage logging to inform forest management and guide future research. Our review included 16 studies describing MPB outbreak relationships with 89 bird species and 6 studies describing relationships with 11 mammalian species, but no studies of reptiles or amphibians. We included studies that compared wildlife response metrics temporally (before versus after the outbreak) and spatially (across sites that varied in severity of outbreak) in relation to beetle outbreaks. Outbreaks ranged in size from 20,600 to ≥107 ha and studies occurred 1‐30 years after the peak MPB outbreak, but most studies were conducted over the short-term (i.e., ≤6 years after the peak of MPB-induced tree mortality). Birds were the only taxa studied frequently; however, high variability existed among those studies to allow many inferences, although some patterns were evident. Avian studies concluded that cavity-nesting species responded more favorably to beetle-killed forests than species with open-cup nests, and species nesting in the shrub layer favored outbreak forests compared with ground and open-cup canopy nesters that generally showed mixed relationships. Bark-drilling species as a group clearly demonstrated a positive short-term association with MPB epidemics compared with that of other foraging assemblages. Cavity-nesting birds that do not consume bark beetles (i.e., secondary cavity-nesting species and nonbark-drilling woodpeckers) also exhibited some positive responses to MPB outbreaks, although not as pronounced or consistent as those of bark-drilling woodpeckers. Mammalian responses to MPB outbreaks were mixed. Studies consistently reported negative effects of MPB

  11. North America Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

  12. Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) is an integrated database of severe weather records for the United States. SWDI enables a user to search through a variety...

  13. Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piciullo, Luca; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

    2017-06-01

    The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when

  14. Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Piciullo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS, operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013–2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events. To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed

  15. Changes in lead and zinc lability during weathering-induced acidification of desert mine tailings: Coupling chemical and micro-scale analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Sarah M.; White, Scott A.; Thompson, Thomas L.; Maier, Raina M.; Chorover, Jon

    2009-01-01

    Desert mine tailings may accumulate toxic metals in the near surface centimeters because of low water through-flux rates. Along with other constraints, metal toxicity precludes natural plant colonization even over decadal time scales. Since unconsolidated particles can be subjected to transport by wind and water erosion, potentially resulting in direct human and ecosystem exposure, there is a need to know how the lability and form of metals change in the tailings weathering environment. A combination of chemical extractions, X-ray diffraction, micro-X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, and micro-Raman spectroscopy were employed to study Pb and Zn contamination in surficial arid mine tailings from the Arizona Klondyke State Superfund Site. Initial site characterization indicated a wide range in pH (2.5 to 8.0) in the surficial tailings pile. Ligand-promoted (DTPA) extractions, used to assess plant-available metal pools, showed decreasing available Zn and Mn with progressive tailings acidification. Aluminum shows the inverse trend, and Pb and Fe show more complex pH dependence. Since the tailings derive from a common source and parent mineralogy, it is presumed that variations in pH and “bioavailable” metal concentrations result from associated variation in particle-scale geochemistry. Four sub-samples, ranging in pH from 2.6 to 5.4, were subjected to further characterization to elucidate micro-scale controls on metal mobility. With acidification, total Pb (ranging from 5 – 13 g kg−1) was increasingly associated with Fe and S in plumbojarosite aggregates. For Zn, both total (0.4 – 6 g kg−1) and labile fractions decreased with decreasing pH. Zinc was found to be primarily associated with the secondary Mn phases manjiroite and chalcophanite. The results suggest that progressive tailings acidification diminishes the overall lability of the total Pb and Zn pools. PMID:20161492

  16. What characterizes planetary space weather?

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    International audience; Space weather has become a mature discipline for the Earth space environment. With increasing efforts in space exploration, it is becoming more and more necessary to understand the space environments of bodies other than Earth. This is the background for an emerging aspect of the space weather discipline: planetary space weather. In this article, we explore what characterizes planetary space weather, using some examples throughout the solar system. We consider energy s...

  17. Severe Weather Planning for Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Barbara McNaught; Strong, Christopher; Bunting, Bill

    2008-01-01

    Flash floods, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes occur with rapid onset and often no warning. Decisions must be made quickly and actions taken immediately. This paper provides tips for schools on: (1) Preparing for Severe Weather Emergencies; (2) Activating a Severe Weather Plan; (3) Severe Weather Plan Checklist; and (4) Periodic Drills and…

  18. Whether weather affects music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aplin, Karen L.; Williams, Paul D.

    2012-09-01

    The creative output of composers, writers, and artists is often influenced by their surroundings. To give a literary example, it has been claimed recently that some of the characters in Oliver Twist and A Christmas Carol were based on real-life people who lived near Charles Dickens in London [Richardson, 2012]. Of course, an important part of what we see and hear is not only the people with whom we interact but also our geophysical surroundings. Of all the geophysical phenomena to influence us, the weather is arguably the most significant because we are exposed to it directly and daily. The weather was a great source of inspiration for artists Claude Monet, John Constable, and William Turner, who are known for their scientifically accurate paintings of the skies [e.g., Baker and Thornes, 2006].

  19. Experiences with vaccination and epidemiological investigations on an anthrax outbreak in Australia in 1997.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, A J; Galvin, J W; Rubira, R J; Condron, R J; Bradley, T

    1999-08-01

    Between January and February 1997, there was a severe outbreak of anthrax on 83 properties in north-central Victoria, Australia. Vaccination was used as a major tool to control the outbreak by establishing a vaccination buffer zone 30 km by 20 km. In all, 78, 649 cattle in 457 herds were vaccinated in a three week program. In the face of the outbreak, there was a delay before vaccination was able to stop deaths. In the 10 days following vaccination 144 cases of confirmed anthrax occurred and 38 cases occurred more than 10 days after vaccination. When all cattle on at-risk properties were revaccinated in October and early November 1997, there were only two confirmed cases of anthrax in vaccinated seven and nine month old calves in the following anthrax season. Investigations into the epidemiology of the outbreak were unable to establish a single major association for the spread of the disease by flies, biting insects, carrion scavengers, wind, manufactured feed, milk factory tanker routes, veterinary visits, animal treatments, movements of personnel between farms or burning of carcases. The weather conditions in the outbreak area were part of a long dry spell with periods of high daily and night temperatures, continuing high humidity over the period and higher than normal soil temperatures. It is possible that extensive earth works in the district involving irrigated pasture renovation and water channel and drainage renovation could have disturbed old anthrax graves. It is postulated that these works released spores that were dispersed in the preceding wet winter across poorly drained areas that formed the axis for the outbreak. The earth moving renovations establishing irrigation in the area were conducted in the late 1890s, and before the occurrence of anthrax outbreaks were recorded. The axis of the outbreak was the major stock route for cattle and sheep moving from southern Victoria to northern Victoria and southern New South Wales, and undoubtedly there would

  20. The Weather Man

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋涵毅

    2009-01-01

    Secondly. the weather man一定会告诉我们每天的最高和最低温度(the highest and the lowest temperature)。我们用℃来表示摄氏度,有的地方则用°F,那是华氏温度。°F=9/5×℃+32

  1. Tactical Weather Expert System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objective of this project was to assess the feasibility of developing an expert system for tactical weather prediction. Using WILLARD, an expert ...indicate that intelligent interpretations of cloud formations can be made. These inferences can then be automatically passed to the expert system for...processing as another piece of information. It is anticipated that this technology will significantly reduce the dependence of the expert system on a

  2. Space Weather Ballooning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Tony; Johnson, Sam; Koske-Phillips, Amelia; White, Michael; Yarborough, Amelia; Lamb, Aaron; Herbst, Anna; Molina, Ferris; Gilpin, Justin; Grah, Olivia; Perez, Ginger; Reid, Carson; Harvey, Joey; Schultz, Jamie

    2016-10-01

    We have developed a "Space Weather Buoy" for measuring upper atmospheric radiation from cosmic rays and solar storms. The Buoy, which is carried to the stratosphere by helium balloons, is relatively inexpensive and uses off-the-shelf technology accessible to small colleges and high schools. Using this device, we have measured two Forbush Decreases and a small surge in atmospheric radiation during the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm of March 2015.

  3. Weathering the financial storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsson, Tjörvi; Pétursson, Thórarinn G.

    2011-01-01

    to explain a significant share of the cross-country variation in the depth and duration of the crisis and provide quite sharp predictions of the incidence of banking and currency crises. This suggests that country-specific initial conditions played an important role in determining the economic impact...... of the crisis and, in particular, that countries with sound fundamentals and flexible economic frameworks were better able to weather the financial storm....

  4. Early Detection of Disease Outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The ability to detect disease outbreaks early is important in order to minimize morbidity and mortality through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures. Many national, state, and local health departments are launching disease surveillance systems with daily analyses of hospital emergency department visits, ambulance dispatch calls, or pharmacy sales for which population-at-risk information is unavailable or irrelevant. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We propose a pr...

  5. Areosynchronous weather imager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puschell, Jeffery J.; Lock, Robert

    2016-09-01

    Mars is characterized by rapidly changing, poorly understood weather that is a concern for future human missions. Future Areosynchronous Mars Orbit (AMO) communication satellites offer possible platforms for Mars weather imagers similar to the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) weather imagers that have been observing Earth since 1966. This paper describes an AReosynchronous Environmental Suite (ARES) that includes two imagers: one with two emissive infrared bands (10.8 μm and 12.0 μm) at 4 km resolution and the other with three VNIR bands (500 nm, 700 nm, 900 nm) at 1 km resolution. ARES stares at Mars and provides full disk coverage as fast as every 40 sec in the VNIR bands and every 2 min in the emissive bands with good sensitivity (SNR 200 in the VNIR for typical radiances and NEDT 0.2K at 180 K scene temperature in the emissive infrared). ARES size, mass, power and data rate characteristics are compatible with expectations for hosted payloads onboard future AMO communication satellites. Nevertheless, more work is needed to optimize ARES for future missions, especially in terms of trades between data rate, full disk coverage rate, sensitivity, number of spectral bands and spatial resolution and in study of approaches for maintaining accurate line of sight knowledge during data collection.

  6. Swine flu - A pandemic outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jini George

    Full Text Available Hippocrates had described influenza like outbreak in 412 B.C. and since then repeated influenza like epidemics and pandemics have been recorded in recent times. One of the greatest killers of all time was the pandemic of swine flu (Spanish flu of 1918-1919, when 230 million people died. Annual influenza epidemics are estimated to affect 5–15% of the global population, resulting in severe illness in 3–5 million patients causing 250,000–500,000 deaths worldwide. Severe illness and deaths occur mainly in the high-risk populations of infants, the elderly and chronically ill patients. The 2009 outbreak of swine flu is thought to be a mutation more specifically a reassortment of four known strains of influenza A virus subtype H1N1; one endemic in humans, one endemic in birds, and two endemic in pigs. WHO officially declared the outbreak to be a pandemic on June 11, 2009, but stressed that the new designation was a result of the global "spread of the virus," not its severity. [Vet World 2009; 2(12.000: 472-474

  7. Weather Monitoring Station: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mr. Dipak V. Sose

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Weather monitoring plays a very important role in human life hence study of weather system is necessary. Currently there are two types of the weather monitoring stations available i.e. wired and wireless. Wireless system has some advantages over the wired one hence popular now a days. The parameters are include in weather monitoring usually temperature, humidity atmospheric pressure, light intensity, rainfall etc. There are many techniques existed using different processor such as PIC, AVR, ARM etc. Analog to digital channel are used to fetch the analog output of the sensors. The wireless techniques used in the weather monitoring having GSM, FM channel, Zigbee, RF etc Protocols

  8. Dengue disease outbreak definitions are implicitly variable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver J. Brady

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Infectious diseases rarely exhibit simple dynamics. Outbreaks (defined as excess cases beyond response capabilities have the potential to cause a disproportionately high burden due to overwhelming health care systems. The recommendations of international policy guidelines and research agendas are based on a perceived standardised definition of an outbreak characterised by a prolonged, high-caseload, extra-seasonal surge. In this analysis we apply multiple candidate outbreak definitions to reported dengue case data from Brazil to test this assumption. The methods identify highly heterogeneous outbreak characteristics in terms of frequency, duration and case burden. All definitions identify outbreaks with characteristics that vary over time and space. Further, definitions differ in their timeliness of outbreak onset, and thus may be more or less suitable for early intervention. This raises concerns about the application of current outbreak guidelines for early warning/identification systems. It is clear that quantitatively defining the characteristics of an outbreak is an essential prerequisite for effective reactive response. More work is needed so that definitions of disease outbreaks can take into account the baseline capacities of treatment, surveillance and control. This is essential if outbreak guidelines are to be effective and generalisable across a range of epidemiologically different settings.

  9. Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Year-Old Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth > For Parents > Can the Weather Affect My ... empeorar el asma de mi hijo? Weather and Asthma The effect of weather on asthma symptoms isn' ...

  10. Space Weather Services of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  11. Space Weather Services of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, KiChang; Kim, Jae-Hun; Kim, Young Yun; Kwon, Yongki; Wi, Gwan-sik

    2016-07-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  12. Ongoing outbreak of dengue serotype-3 in Solomon Islands, January to May 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Nogareda

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In January 2013, clinicians in Honiara, Solomon Islands noted several patients presenting with dengue-like illness. Serum from three cases tested positive for dengue by rapid diagnostic test. Subsequent increases in cases were reported, and the outbreak was confirmed as being dengue serotype-3 by further laboratory tests. This report describes the ongoing outbreak investigation, findings and response. Methods: Enhanced dengue surveillance was implemented in the capital, Honiara, and in the provinces. This included training health staff on dengue case definitions, data collection and reporting. Vector surveillance was also conducted. Results: From 3 January to 15 May 2013, 5254 cases of suspected dengue were reported (101.8 per 10 000 population, including 401 hospitalizations and six deaths. The median age of cases was 20 years (range zero to 90, and 86% were reported from Honiara. Both Aedes aegyti and Aedes albopictus were identified in Honiara. Outbreak response measures included clinical training seminars, vector control activities, implementation of diagnostic and case management protocols and a public communication campaign. Discussion: This was the first large dengue outbreak documented in Solomon Islands. Factors that may have contributed to this outbreak include a largely susceptible population, the presence of a highly efficient dengue vector in Honiara, a high-density human population with numerous breeding sites and favourable weather conditions for mosquito proliferation. Although the number of cases has plateaued since 1 April, continued enhanced nationwide surveillance and response activities are necessary.

  13. Four Foodborne Disease Outbreaks Caused by a New Type of Enterotoxin-Producing Clostridium perfringens

    OpenAIRE

    Monma, Chie; Hatakeyama, Kaoru; Obata, Hiromi; Yokoyama, Keiko; Konishi, Noriko; Itoh, Takeshi; Kai, Akemi

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiological and bacteriological investigations on four foodborne outbreaks caused by a new type of enterotoxin-producing Clostridium perfringens are described. C. perfringens isolated from patients of these outbreaks did not produce any known enterotoxin and did not carry the C. perfringens enterotoxin gene. However, the culture filtrates of these isolates induced the accumulation of fluid in rabbit ileal loop tests. The molecular weight of the new enterotoxin may be between 50,000 an...

  14. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities’ preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities’ capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change. PMID:27649547

  15. Statistics of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. D. Malamud

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The standard measures of the intensity of a tornado in the USA and many other countries are the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales. These scales are based on the damage that a tornado causes. Another measure of the strength of a tornado is its path length of touchdown, L. In this study we consider severe tornadoes, which we define as L≥10 km, in the continental USA (USA Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Database. We find that for the period 1982–2011, for individual severe tornadoes (L≥10 km: (i There is a strong linear scaling between the number of severe tornadoes in a year and their total path length in that year. (ii The cumulative frequency path length data suggests that, not taking into account any changing trends over time, we would expect in a given year (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥115 km and in a decade (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥215 km. (iii The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of severe tornado touchdown path lengths, 20<L<200 km, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 3. We then take the total path length of severe tornadoes in a convective day (12:00–12:00 UTC, LD, as a measure of the strength of a 24-h USA tornado outbreak. We find that: (i For 1982–2011, the number of severe tornadoes in a USA convective day outbreak has a strong power-law relationship (exponent 0.80 on the convective day total path length, LD. (ii For 1952–2011, the cumulative frequency path length data for severe tornado outbreaks suggests that we would expect in a given year (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with total path length LD≥480 km and in a decade (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with a total path length LD≥1200 km. (iii For 1982–2011, the noncumulative frequency-length statistics of tornado

  16. Extreme Space Weather Impact: An Emergency Management Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacAlester, Mark H.; Murtagh, William

    2014-08-01

    In 2010, the Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) partnered with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to investigate the potential for extreme space weather conditions to impact National Security/Emergency Preparedness communications—those communications vital to a functioning government and to emergency and disaster response—in the United States. Given the interdependencies of modern critical infrastructure, the initial systematic review of academic research on space weather effects on communications expanded to other critical infrastructure sectors, federal agencies, and private sector organizations. While the effort is ongoing, and despite uncertainties inherent with this hazard, FEMA and the SWPC did draw some conclusions. If electric power remains available, an extreme space weather event will result in the intermittent loss of HF and similar sky wave radio systems, minimal direct impact to public safety line-of-sight radio and commercial cellular services, a relatively small loss of satellite services as a percentage of the total satellite fleet, interference or intermittent loss of satellite communications and GPS navigation and timing signals, and no first-order impact to consumer electronic devices. Vulnerability of electric power to an extreme geomagnetic storm remains the primary concern from an emergency management perspective, but actual impact is not well understood at present. A discussion of potential impacts to infrastructure from the loss of electric power from any hazard is provided using the 2011 record tornado outbreak in Alabama as an example.

  17. The Weather in Richmond

    OpenAIRE

    Harless, William Edwin

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: The Weather in Richmond is a short documentary about the Oilers, the football team at Richmond High School in downtown Richmond, California, as they struggle in 2012 with the legacy of winning no games, with the exception of a forfeit, in two years. The video documents the city of Richmond’s poverty and violence, but it also is an account of the city’s cultural diversity, of the city’s industrial history and of the hopes of some of the people who grow up there. The...

  18. Combating bad weather

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta

    2015-01-01

    Every year lives and properties are lost in road accidents. About one-fourth of these accidents are due to low vision in foggy weather. At present, there is no algorithm that is specifically designed for the removal of fog from videos. Application of a single-image fog removal algorithm over each video frame is a time-consuming and costly affair. It is demonstrated that with the intelligent use of temporal redundancy, fog removal algorithms designed for a single image can be extended to the real-time video application. Results confirm that the presented framework used for the extension of the

  19. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  20. Protracted outbreak of S. Enteritidis PT 21c in a large Hamburg nursing home

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domke Paul-Gerhard

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During August 2006, a protracted outbreak of Salmonella (S. Enteritidis infections in a large Hamburg nursing home was investigated. Methods A site visit of the home was conducted and food suppliers' premises tested for Salmonella. Among nursing home residents a cohort study was carried out focusing on foods consumed in the three days before the first part of the outbreak. Instead of relying on residents' memory, data from the home's patient food ordering system was used as exposure data. S. Enteritidis isolates from patients and suspected food vehicles were phage typed and compared. Results Within a population of 822 nursing home residents, 94 case patients among residents (1 fatality and 17 among staff members were counted 6 through 29 August. The outbreak peaked 7 through 9 August, two days after a spell of very warm summer weather. S. Enteritidis was consistently recovered from patients' stools throughout the outbreak. Among the food items served during 5 through 7 August, the cohort study pointed to afternoon cake on all three days as potential risk factors for disease. Investigation of the bakery supplying the cake yielded S. Enteritidis from cakes sampled 31 August. Comparison of the isolates by phage typing demonstrated both isolates from patients and the cake to be the exceedingly rare phage type 21c. Conclusion Cake (various types served on various days contaminated with S. Enteritidis were the likely vehicle of the outbreak in the nursing home. While the cakes were probably contaminated with low pathogen dose throughout the outbreak period, high ambient summer temperatures and failure to keep the cake refrigerated led to high pathogen dose in cake on some days and in some of the housing units. This would explain the initial peak of cases, but also the drawn out nature of the outbreak with cases until the end of August. Suggestions are made to nursing homes, aiding in outbreak prevention. Early outbreak detection is

  1. Measles & rubella outbreaks in Maharashtra State, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil R Vaidya

    2016-01-01

    Interpretation & conclusions: Altogether, 94 measles and rubella outbreaks were confirmed in 2013 in the State of Maharasthra indicating the necessity to increase measles vaccine coverage in the State.

  2. Briefing highlights space weather risks to GPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tretkoff, Ernie

    2011-07-01

    Solar storms, which are expected to increase as the Sun nears the most active phase of the solar cycle, can disrupt a variety of technologies on which society relies. Speakers at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C., focused on how space weather can affect the Global Positioning System (GPS), which is used in a wide range of industries, including commercial air travel, agriculture, national security, and emergency response. Rocky Stone, chief technical pilot for United Airlines, noted that GPS allows more aircraft to be in airspace, saves fuel, and helps aircraft move safely on runways. “Improvements in space weather forecasting need to be pursued,” he said. Precision GPS has also “changed the whole nature of farming,” said Ron Hatch, Director of Navigation Systems, NavCom Technology/John Deere. GPS makes it possible for tractors to be driven in the most efficient paths and for fertilizer and water to be applied precisely to the areas that most need them. Space weather-induced degradation of GPS signals can cause significant loss to farms that rely on GPS. Elizabeth Zimmerman, Deputy Associate Administrator for the Office of Response and Recovery at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), described how FEMA relies on GPS for disaster recovery. The agency is developing an operations plan for dealing with space weather, she said.

  3. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  4. Estimating the joint disease outbreak-detection time when an automated biosurveillance system is augmenting traditional clinical case finding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yanna; Adamou, Christina; Dowling, John N; Cooper, Gregory F

    2008-04-01

    The goals of automated biosurveillance systems are to detect disease outbreaks early, while exhibiting few false positives. Evaluation measures currently exist to estimate the expected detection time of biosurveillance systems. Researchers also have developed models that estimate clinician detection of cases of outbreak diseases, which is a process known as clinical case finding. However, little research has been done on estimating how well biosurveillance systems augment traditional outbreak detection that is carried out by clinicians. In this paper, we introduce a general approach for doing so for non-endemic disease outbreaks, which are characteristic of bioterrorist induced diseases, such as respiratory anthrax. We first layout the basic framework, which makes minimal assumptions, and then we specialize it in several ways. We illustrate the method using a Bayesian outbreak detection algorithm called PANDA, a model of clinician outbreak detection, and simulated cases of a windborne anthrax release. This analysis derives a bound on how well we would expect PANDA to augment clinician detection of an anthrax outbreak. The results support that such analyses are useful in assessing the extent to which computer-based outbreak detection systems are expected to augment traditional clinician outbreak detection.

  5. Road Weather and Connected Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisano, P.; Boyce, B. C.

    2015-12-01

    On average, there are over 5.8 M vehicle crashes each year of which 23% are weather-related. Weather-related crashes are defined as those crashes that occur in adverse weather or on slick pavement. The vast majority of weather-related crashes happen on wet pavement (74%) and during rainfall (46%). Connected vehicle technologies hold the promise to transform road-weather management by providing improved road weather data in real time with greater temporal and geographic accuracy. This will dramatically expand the amount of data that can be used to assess, forecast, and address the impacts that weather has on roads, vehicles, and travelers. The use of vehicle-based measurements of the road and surrounding atmosphere with other, more traditional weather data sources, and create road and atmospheric hazard products for a variety of users. The broad availability of road weather data from mobile sources will vastly improve the ability to detect and forecast weather and road conditions, and will provide the capability to manage road-weather response on specific roadway links. The RWMP is currently demonstrating how weather, road conditions, and related vehicle data can be used for decision making through an innovative Integrated Mobile Observations project. FHWA is partnering with 3 DOTs (MN, MI, & NV) to pilot these applications. One is a mobile alerts application called the Motorists Advisories and Warnings (MAW) and a maintenance decision support application. These applications blend traditional weather information (e.g., radar, surface stations) with mobile vehicle data (e.g., temperature, brake status, wiper status) to determine current weather conditions. These weather conditions, and other road-travel-relevant information, are provided to users via web and phone applications. The MAW provides nowcasts and short-term forecasts out to 24 hours while the EMDSS application can provide forecasts up to 72 hours in advance. The three DOTs have placed readers and external

  6. Rough weather rescue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-07-01

    This report, which was commissioned by the Offshore Division of the Health and Safety Executive, reviews the type of equipment and techniques used to rescue people from the water around offshore platforms in rough weather. It also examines the limitations of the equipment in extreme conditions and reports the views of the various industry sectors (as determined by a questionnaire survey). The type of incidents covered by the report include: man overboard; helicopter ditching; and evacuation from totally enclosed motor propelled survival craft (TEMPSC) and life rafts. The report considers: the approach taken by other oil-producing countries; current escape, evacuation and rescue (EER) practices for the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS); environmental limits; methods for rescue and recovery from the water and TEMPSC; launch and recovery systems; fast rescue craft (FSC) and daughter craft; emergency response and rescue vessels; helicopters; casualty personal protection equipment; claimed versus actual equipment performance; training and practice procedures; attitudes to environmental limits; lessons learnt from incidents; mechanical recovery devices; equipment design and use in rough weather; and recommendations for improvements.

  7. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Eric J

    2012-12-18

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  8. Weathering of rock 'Ginger'

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    One of the more unusual rocks at the site is Ginger, located southeast of the lander. Parts of it have the reddest color of any material in view, whereas its rounded lobes are gray and relatively unweathered. These color differences are brought out in the inset, enhanced at the upper right. In the false color image at the lower right, the shape of the visible-wavelength spectrum (related to the abundance of weathered ferric iron minerals) is indicated by the hue of the rocks. Blue indicates relatively unweathered rocks. Typical soils and drift, which are heavily weathered, are shown in green and flesh tones. The very red color in the creases in the rock surface correspond to a crust of ferric minerals. The origin of the rock is uncertain; the ferric crust may have grown underneath the rock, or it may cement pebbles together into a conglomerate. Ginger will be a target of future super-resolution studies to better constrain its origin.Mars Pathfinder is the second in NASA's Discovery program of low-cost spacecraft with highly focused science goals. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, developed and manages the Mars Pathfinder mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) was developed by the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory under contract to JPL. Peter Smith is the Principal Investigator. JPL is an operating division of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

  9. Space Weather- Physics and Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Bothmer, Volker

    2007-01-01

    This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

  10. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  11. Small Sensors for Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas, A. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Naval Research Laboratory is actively pursuing enhancing the nation's space weather sensing capability. One aspect of this plan is the concept of flying Space Weather sensor suites on host spacecraft as secondary payloads. The emergence and advancement of the CubeSat spacecraft architecture has produced a viable platform for scientifically and operationally relevant Space Weather sensing. This talk will provide an overview of NRL's low size weight and power sensor technologies targeting Space Weather measurements. A summary of on-orbit results of past and current missions will be presented, as well as an overview of future flights that are manifested and potential constellation missions.

  12. Bishop Paiute Weatherization Training Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlos Hernandez

    2010-01-28

    The DOE Weatherization Training Grant assisted Native American trainees in developing weatherization competencies, creating employment opportunities for Bishop Paiute tribal members in a growing field. The trainees completed all the necessary training and certification requirements and delivered high-quality weatherization services on the Bishop Paiute Reservation. Six tribal members received all three certifications for weatherization; four of the trainees are currently employed. The public benefit includes (1) development of marketable skills by low-income Native individuals, (2) employment for low-income Native individuals in a growing industry, and (3) economic development opportunities that were previously not available to these individuals or the Tribe.

  13. SIR epidemics with multiple seeds percolate without outbreaks

    CERN Document Server

    Hasegawa, Takehisa

    2015-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with multiple seeds on a random regular graph. Many researchers have studied the epidemic threshold of epidemic models above which a global outbreak can occur, starting from an infinitesimal fraction of seeds. However, there have been few studies on the epidemic models with finite fractions of seeds. The aim of this paper is to clarify what happens on phase transitions in such cases. The SIR model on networks exhibits two percolation transitions. We derive the percolation transition points for the SIR model with multiple seeds to show that as the infection rate increases epidemic clusters generated from each seed percolate before a single seed can induce a global outbreak.

  14. Timely Response and Containment of 2016 Cholera Outbreak in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cholera outbreak to guide outbreak preparedness and timely response ... place to investigate an outbreak of diarrhoeal disease of undetermined ... brought to Kapisha health post for treatment. Although ..... in place it has spread rapidly in Haiti.

  15. Unexpected Rift Valley fever outbreak, northern Mauritania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Mamy, Ahmed B O; Baba, Mohamed Ould; Barry, Yahya; Isselmou, Katia; Dia, Mamadou L; El Kory, Mohamed O B; Diop, Mariam; Lo, Modou Moustapha; Thiongane, Yaya; Bengoumi, Mohammed; Puech, Lilian; Plee, Ludovic; Claes, Filip; de La Rocque, Stephane; Doumbia, Baba

    2011-10-01

    During September-October 2010, an unprecedented outbreak of Rift Valley fever was reported in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania after exceptionally heavy rainfall. Camels probably played a central role in the local amplification of the virus. We describe the main clinical signs (hemorrhagic fever, icterus, and nervous symptoms) observed during the outbreak.

  16. Measles Outbreak among Unvaccinated Children in Bajura

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Sitaula

    2010-12-01

    CFR of this outbreak is higher than the national CFR. Vaccine efficacy of 50% points towards the need for investigation of vaccine logistics and cold chain system. Moreover, this laboratory test confirmed an outbreak showing that the measles virus could be imported from an endemic region and rapidly spread through a susceptible population who were previously not immunized.

  17. [Cyclospora cayetanensis outbreak in travelers to Cuba].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Olivencia, Germán; Herrero, Maria Dolores; Subirats, Mercedes; Rivas González, Pablo; Puente, Sabino

    2008-11-01

    Initially described in travelers, outbreaks of cyclosporiasis were soon linked to imported food products. An outbreak of cyclosporiasis in Spanish travelers is described. After identification of Cyclospora cayetanensis in stool analyses, a specific questionnaire was completed. Pyrosis was described in 57% of cases (4/7). Peptic symptoms can be a useful clue to indicate the diagnosis of cyclosporiasis in patients with travelers' diarrhea.

  18. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  19. Using Forecasting to Teach Weather Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsubota, Y.; Takahashi, T.

    2009-09-01

    Weather affects our lives and hence, is a popular topic in daily conversations and in the media. Therefore, it is not only important to teach weather, but is also a good idea to use 'weather' as a topic in science teaching. Science education has two main objectives: to acquire scientific concepts and methods. Weather forecasting is an adequate theme to teach scientific methods because it is dependent on observation. However, it is not easy to forecast weather using only temporal observation. We need to know the tendency of 'weather change' via consecutive and/or continuous weather observation. Students will acquire scientific-observation skills through weather observation. Data-processing skills would be enhanced through a weather-forecasting contest. A contest should be announced within 5 days of school events, such as a school excursion and field day. Students submit their own weather forecast by gathering weather information through the internet, news paper and so on. A weather-forecasting contest compels the student to observe the weather more often. We currently have some different weather forecasts. For example, American weather-related companies such as ACCU weather and Weather Channel provide weather forecast for the many locations all over the world. Comparing these weather forecasting with actual weather, participants such as students could evaluate the differences between forecasted and actual temperatures. Participants will judge the best weather forecast based on the magnitude of the difference. Also, participants evaluate the 'hitting ratio' of each weather forecast. Students can learn elementary statistics by comparing various weather forecasts. We have developed our weather web-site that provides our own weather forecasting and observation. Students acquire science skills using our weather web-site. We will report our lessen plans and explain our weather web-site.

  20. Weather Fundamentals: Hurricanes & Tornadoes. [Videotape].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998

    The videos in this educational series, for grades 4-7, help students understand the science behind weather phenomena through dramatic live-action footage, vivid animated graphics, detailed weather maps, and hands-on experiments. This episode (23 minutes) features information on the deadliest and most destructive storms on Earth. Through satellite…

  1. Tibetan History of Weather Monitoring

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2004-01-01

    Modem weather monitoring began in Tibet at the end of the 19th century. In 1894, the British set up a weather monitoting station in Chunpei of Yadong,which continued to operate until August 1956. In the 1940s, the Nationalist Govemment's Ministry of Communications set up a rainfall measuring station in Qamdo, Xikang Province.

  2. Weather Modification: Finding Common Ground.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garstang, Michael; Bruintjes, Roelof; Serafin, Robert; Orville, Harold; Boe, Bruce; Cotton, William; Warburton, Joseph

    2005-05-01

    Research and operational approaches to weather modification expressed in the National Research Council's 2003 report on “Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research” and in the Weather Modification Association's response to that report form the basis for this discussion. There is agreement that advances in the past few decades over a broad front of understanding physical processes and in technology have not been comprehensively applied to weather modification. Such advances need to be capitalized upon in the form of a concerted and sustained national effort to carry out basic and applied research in weather modification. The need for credible scientific evidence and the pressure for action should be resolved. Differences in the perception of current knowledge, the utility of numerical models, and the specific needs of research and operations in weather modification must be addressed. The increasing demand for water and the cost to society inflicted by severe weather require that the intellectual, technical, and administrative resources of the nation be combined to resolve whether and to what degree humans can influence the weather.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

  3. Japanese space weather research activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, M.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present existing and planned Japanese space weather research activities. The program consists of several core elements, including a space weather prediction system using numerical forecasts, a large-scale ground-based observation network, and the cooperative framework "Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP)" based on a Grant-in Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas.

  4. Weather to Make a Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyle, Julie E.; Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.

    2006-01-01

    DECIDE is a teacher-friendly, integrated approach designed to stimulate learning by allowing students to make decisions about situations they face in their lives while using scientific weather principles. This learning unit integrates weather science, decision theory, mathematics, statistics, geography, and reading in a context of decision…

  5. Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian

    2014-08-01

    There has been an ostensibly large number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the past decade. An open question that is critically important for scientists and policy makers is whether any such increase in weather extremes is natural or anthropogenic in origin. One mechanism proposed to explain the increased frequency of extreme weather events is the amplification of mid-latitude atmospheric planetary waves. Disproportionately large warming in the northern polar regions compared with mid-latitudes--and associated weakening of the north-south temperature gradient--may favour larger amplitude planetary waves, although observational evidence for this remains inconclusive. A better understanding of the role of planetary waves in causing mid-latitude weather extremes is essential for assessing the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts of future planetary wave changes. Here we show that months of extreme weather over mid-latitudes are commonly accompanied by significantly amplified quasi-stationary mid-tropospheric planetary waves. Conversely, months of near-average weather over mid-latitudes are often accompanied by significantly attenuated waves. Depending on geographical region, certain types of extreme weather (for example, hot, cold, wet, dry) are more strongly related to wave amplitude changes than others. The findings suggest that amplification of quasi-stationary waves preferentially increases the probabilities of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia.

  6. Statistics of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. D. Malamud

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The standard measures of the intensity of a tornado in the USA and many other countries are the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales. These scales are based on the damage that a tornado causes. Another measure of the strength of a tornado is its path length of touchdown, L. In this study we consider 4061 severe tornadoes (defined as L≥10 km in the continental USA for the time period 1981–2010 (USA Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Database. We find for individual severe tornadoes: (i The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of severe tornado touchdown path lengths, 20 < L < 200 km, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 3. (ii There is a strong linear scaling between the number of severe tornadoes in a year and their total path lengths in that year. We then take the total path length of severe tornadoes in a day, LD, as a measure of the strength of a 24-hour USA tornado outbreak. We find that: (i On average, the number of days per year with at least one continental USA severe tornado (path length L≥10 km has increased 16% in the 30-year period 1981–2010. (ii The daily numbers of severe tornadoes in a USA outbreak have a strong power-law relationship (exponent 0.87 on their daily total path lengths, LD, over the range 20 < LD < 1000 km dy−1. (iii The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of tornado outbreaks, 10 < LD < 1000 km dy−1, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 1.7. We believe that our robust scaling results provide evidence that touchdown path lengths can be used as quantitative measures of the systematic properties of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks.

  7. Cool Stars and Space Weather

    CERN Document Server

    Vidotto, A A; Cameron, A C; Morin, J; Villadsen, J; Saar, S; Alvarado, J; Cohen, O; Holzwarth, V; Poppenhaeger, K; Reville, V

    2014-01-01

    Stellar flares, winds and coronal mass ejections form the space weather. They are signatures of the magnetic activity of cool stars and, since activity varies with age, mass and rotation, the space weather that extra-solar planets experience can be very different from the one encountered by the solar system planets. How do stellar activity and magnetism influence the space weather of exoplanets orbiting main-sequence stars? How do the environments surrounding exoplanets differ from those around the planets in our own solar system? How can the detailed knowledge acquired by the solar system community be applied in exoplanetary systems? How does space weather affect habitability? These were questions that were addressed in the splinter session "Cool stars and Space Weather", that took place on 9 Jun 2014, during the Cool Stars 18 meeting. In this paper, we present a summary of the contributions made to this session.

  8. Detection of Weather Radar Clutter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Weather radars provide valuable information on precipitation in the atmosphere but due to the way radars work, not only precipitation is observed by the weather radar. Weather radar clutter, echoes from non-precipitating targets, occur frequently in the data, resulting in lowered data quality....... Especially in the application of weather radar data in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting a high data quality is important. Clutter detection is one of the key components in achieving this goal. This thesis presents three methods for detection of clutter. The methods use supervised...... and precipitating and non-precipitating clouds. Another method uses the difference in the motion field of clutter and precipitation measured between two radar images. Furthermore, the direction of the wind field extracted from a weather model is used. The third method uses information about the refractive index...

  9. An epidemic outbreak of cryptosporidiosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mølbak, Kåre; Højlyng, Niels; Ingholt, Liselotte

    1990-01-01

    In the first year of a prospective community study of childhood diarrhea conducted in a semiurban area in the capital of Guinea Bissau, Cryptosporidium sp. was found in 73 (6.0%) of 1216 episodes of diarrhea. The parasite was the second most prevalent intestinal parasite, and the only one...... significantly associated with diarrhea (OR = 2.79, P = 0.0006). The seasonal distribution was striking, with a peak prevalence in the beginning of the rainy season (May 17.6%) when an epidemic outbreak of diarrhea started. The prevalence was highest in children younger than 18 months, an age at which...... prevalences of other intestinal parasites were low. This reverse age pattern may possibly be explained by the small infective dose needed to create severe infections, by air-borne transmission and by the development of protective immunity....

  10. Zika virus outbreak in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heukelbach, Jorg; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Kelvin, Alyson Ann; de Oliveira, Wanderson Kleber; Pamplona de Góes Cavalcanti, Luciano

    2016-02-28

    Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is spreading rapidly within the Americas after originating from an outbreak in Brazil. We describe the current ZIKV infection epidemic in Brazil and the neurological symptoms arising. First cases of an acute exanthematic disease were reported in Brazil's Northeast region at the end of 2014. In March 2015, autochthonous ZIKV was determined to be the causative agent of the exanthematic disease. As cases of neurological syndromes in regions where ZIKV, dengue and/or Chikungunya viruses co-circulate were reported, ZIKV was also identified in the cerebrospinal fluid of patients with acute neurological syndromes and previous exanthematic disease. By the end of September 2015, an increasing number of infants with small head circumference or microcephaly were noted in Brazil's Northeast which was estimated to be 29 cases between August and October. ZIKV was identified in blood and tissue samples of a newborn and in mothers who had given birth to infants with microcephaly and ophthalmological anomalies. In 2015, there were an estimated 440,000 - 1,300,000 Zika cases in Brazil. There have been 4,783 suspected cases of microcephaly, most of them in the Northeast of Brazil associated with 76 deaths. The Ministry of Health is intensifying control measures against the mosquito Aedes aegypti and implemented intensive surveillance actions. Further studies are needed to confirm the suspected association between ZIKV infection and microcephaly; to identify antiviral, immunotherapy, or prophylactic vaccine; to introduce diagnostic ELISA testing. Clinical and epidemiological studies must be performed to describe viral dynamics and expansion of the outbreak.

  11. Artificial weathering of granite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Hermo, B.

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes a series of artificial weathering tests run on granite designed to: simulate the action of weathering agents on buildings and identify the underlying mechanisms, determine the salt resistance of different types of rock; evaluate consolidation and water-repellent treatment durability; and confirm hypotheses about the origin of salts such as gypsum that are often found in granite buildings. Salt crystallization tests were also conducted, using sodium chloride, sodium sulphate, calcium sulphate and seawater solutions. One of these tests was conducted in a chamber specifically designed to simulate salt spray weathering and another in an SO2 chamber to ascertain whether granite is subject to sulphation. The test results are analyzed and discussed, along with the shortcomings of each type of trial as a method for simulating the decay observed in monuments. The effect of factors such as wet-dry conditions, type of saline solution and the position of the planes of weakness on the type of decay is also addressed.En este trabajo se hace una síntesis de varios ensayos de alteración artificial realizados con rocas graníticas. Estos ensayos tenían distintos objetivos: reproducir las formas de alteración encontradas en los edificios para llegar a conocer los mecanismos que las generan, determinar la resistencia de las diferentes rocas a la acción de las sales, evaluar la durabilidad de tratamientos de consolidación e hidrofugación y constatar hipótesis acerca del origen de algunas sales, como el yeso, que aparecen frecuentemente en edificios graníticos. En los ensayos de cristalización de sales se utilizaron disoluciones de cloruro de sodio, sulfato de sodio, sulfato de calcio y agua de mar. Uno de estos ensayos se llevó a cabo en una cámara especialmente diseñada para reproducir la alteración por aerosol marino y otro se realizó en una cámara de SO2, con el objeto de comprobar si en rocas graníticas se puede producir

  12. Lessons from the Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looi, Lai-Meng; Chua, Kaw-Bing

    2007-12-01

    The Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia (September 1998 to May 1999) resulted in 265 cases of acute encephalitis with 105 deaths, and near collapse of the billion-dollar pig-farming industry. Because it was initially attributed to Japanese encephalitis, early control measures were ineffective, and the outbreak spread to other parts of Malaysia and nearby Singapore. The isolation of the novel aetiological agent, the Nipah virus (NiV), from the cerebrospinal fluid of an outbreak victim was the turning point which led to outbreak control 2 months later. Together with the Hendra virus, NiV is now recognised as a new genus, Henipavirus (Hendra + Nipah), in the Paramyxoviridae family. Efforts of the local and international scientific community have since elucidated the epidemiology, clinico-pathophysiology and pathogenesis of this new disease. Humans contracted the infection from close contact with infected pigs, and formed the basis for pig-culling that eventually stopped the outbreak. NiV targeted medium-sized and small blood vessels resulting in endothelial multinucleated syncytia and fibrinoid necrosis. Autopsies revealed disseminated cerebral microinfarctions resulting from vasculitis-induced thrombosis and direct neuronal involvement. The discovery of NiV in the urine and saliva of Malaysian Island flying foxes (Pteropus hypomelanus and Petropus vampyrus) implicated these as natural reservoir hosts of NiV. It is probable that initial transmission of NiV from bats to pigs occurred in late 1997/early 1998 through contamination of pig swill by bat excretions, as a result of migration of these forest fruitbats to cultivated orchards and pig-farms, driven by fruiting failure of forest trees during the El Nino-related drought and anthropogenic fires in Indonesia in 1997-1998. This outbreak emphasizes the need for sharing information of any unusual illnesses in animals and humans, an open-minded approach and close collaboration and co-ordination between the medical

  13. Effectiveness and timing of vaccination during school measles outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonačić Marinović, Axel Antonio; Swaan, Corien; Wichmann, Ole; van Steenbergen, Jim; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2012-09-01

    Despite high vaccination coverage in most European countries, large community outbreaks of measles do occur, normally clustered around schools and resulting from suboptimal vaccination coverage. To determine whether or when it is worth implementing outbreak-response vaccination campaigns in schools, we used stochastic outbreak models to reproduce a public school outbreak in Germany, where no vaccination campaign was implemented. We assumed 2 scenarios covering the baseline vaccination ratio range (91.3%-94.3%) estimated for that school and computed outbreaks assuming various vaccination delays. In one scenario, reacting (i.e., implementing outbreak-response vaccination campaigns) within 12-24 days avoided large outbreaks and reacting within 50 days reduced outbreak size. In the other scenario, reacting within 6-14 days avoided large outbreaks and reacting within 40 days reduced the outbreak size. These are realistic time frames for implementing school outbreak response vaccination campaigns. High baseline vaccination ratios extended the time needed for effective response.

  14. Past locust outbreaks in the Czech Lands: do they indicate particular climatic patterns?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, Rudolf; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Valášek, Hubert; Kiss, Andrea; Kotyza, Oldřich

    2014-04-01

    Outbreaks of locusts, probably Locusta migratoria, were once relatively frequent phenomena in Central Europe. Documentary evidence reaching back as far as the fourteenth century provides information about these events in the Czech Lands. The stages of morphological development of locusts are influenced by a number of natural conditions, including climate. The question remains as to the extent to which the occurrence of locusts may be attributed to particular weather/climatic patterns in a given year (period) in Central Europe. Available documentary sources recording locust outbreaks in the Czech Lands are presented. The chronology thus created shows their occurrence peaked in the seventeenth century, followed in severity by the eighteenth and sixteenth centuries. Some of the largest outbreaks recorded (1338, 1474-1475, 1542-1546, 1693, 1712 and 1748-1749) are analysed in detail. Seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns in Central Europe during the years in which the locust outbreaks took place show no particular climatic features compared with the years without them, with the exception of cooler and wetter springs and wetter summers.

  15. Space weathering of asteroids

    CERN Document Server

    Shestopalov, D I; Cloutis, E A

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of laboratory experiments simulating space weathering optical effects on atmosphereless planetary bodies reveals that the time needed to alter the spectrum of an ordinary chondrite meteorite to resemble the overall spectral shape and slope of an S-type asteroid is about ~ 0.1 Myr. The time required to reduce the visible albedo of samples to ~ 0.05 is ~ 1 Myr. Since both these timescales are much less than the average collisional lifetime of asteroids larger than several kilometers in size, numerous low-albedo asteroids having reddish spectra with subdued absorption bands should be observed instead of an S-type dominated population. It is not the case because asteroid surfaces cannot be considered as undisturbed, unlike laboratory samples. We have estimated the number of collisions occurring in the time of 105 yr between asteroids and projectiles of various sizes and show that impact-activated motions of regolith particles counteract the progress of optical maturation of asteroid surfaces. Continual r...

  16. Cold-Weather Sports and Your Family

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Feeding Your 1- to 2-Year-Old Cold-Weather Sports and Your Family KidsHealth > For Parents > Cold- ... once the weather turns frosty. Beating the Cold-Weather Blahs Once a chill is in the air, ...

  17. Space weathering on airless bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieters, Carle M.; Noble, Sarah K.

    2016-10-01

    Space weathering refers to alteration that occurs in the space environment with time. Lunar samples, and to some extent meteorites, have provided a benchmark for understanding the processes and products of space weathering. Lunar soils are derived principally from local materials but have accumulated a range of optically active opaque particles (OAOpq) that include nanophase metallic iron on/in rims formed on individual grains (imparting a red slope to visible and near-infrared reflectance) and larger iron particles (which darken across all wavelengths) such as are often found within the interior of recycled grains. Space weathering of other anhydrous silicate bodies, such as Mercury and some asteroids, produces different forms and relative abundance of OAOpq particles depending on the particular environment. If the development of OAOpq particles is minimized (such as at Vesta), contamination by exogenic material and regolith mixing become the dominant space weathering processes. Volatile-rich bodies and those composed of abundant hydrous minerals (dwarf planet Ceres, many dark asteroids, and outer solar system satellites) are affected by space weathering processes differently than the silicate bodies of the inner solar system. However, the space weathering products of these bodies are currently poorly understood and the physics and chemistry of space weathering processes in different environments are areas of active research.

  18. GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David; Nyenhuis, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin; Pappenberger, Florian

    2013-04-01

    "Understanding the Earth system — its weather, climate, oceans, atmosphere, water, land, geodynamics, natural resources, ecosystems, and natural and human-induced hazards — is crucial to enhancing human health, safety and welfare, alleviating human suffering including poverty, protecting the global environment, reducing disaster losses, and achieving sustainable development. Observations of the Earth system constitute critical input for advancing this understanding." With this in mind, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) started implementing the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). GEOWOW, short for "GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water", is supporting this objective. GEOWOW's main challenge is to improve Earth observation data discovery, accessibility and exploitability, and to evolve GEOSS in terms of interoperability, standardization and functionality. One of the main goals behind the GEOWOW project is to demonstrate the value of the TIGGE archive in interdisciplinary applications, providing a vast amount of useful and easily accessible information to the users through the GEO Common Infrastructure (GCI). GEOWOW aims at developing funcionalities that will allow easy discovery, access and use of TIGGE archive data and of in-situ observations, e.g. from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), to support applications such as river discharge forecasting.TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) is a key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. The TIGGE archive consists of ensemble weather forecast data from ten global NWP centres, starting from October 2006, which has been made available for scientific research. The TIGGE archive has been used to analyse hydro-meteorological forecasts of flooding in Europe as well as in China. In general the analysis has been favourable in terms of

  19. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Amandu Matua

    Full Text Available Ebola hemorrhagic fever, caused by the highly virulent RNA virus of the filoviridaefamily, has become one of the world's most feared pathogens. The virus induces acute fever and death, often associated with hemorrhagic symptoms in up to 90% of infected patients. The known sub-types of the virus are Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest, Bundibugyoand RestonEbola viruses. In the past, outbreaks were limited to the East and Central African tropical belt with the exception of Ebola Reston outbreaks that occurred in animal facilities in the Philippines, USA and Italy. The on-going outbreak in West Africa that is causing numerous deaths and severe socio-economic challenges has resulted in widespread anxiety globally. This panic may be attributed to the intense media interest, the rapid spread of the virus to other countries like United States and Spain, and moreover, to the absence of an approved treatment or vaccine. Informed by this widespread fear and anxiety, we analyzed the commonly used strategies to manage and control Ebola outbreaks and proposed new approaches that could improve epidemic management and control during future outbreaks. We based our recommendations on epidemic management practices employed during recent outbreaks in East, Central and West Africa, and synthesis of peer-reviewed publications as well as published "field" information from individuals and organizations recently involved in the management of Ebola epidemics. The current epidemic management approaches are largely "reactive", with containment efforts aimed at halting spread of existing outbreaks. We recommend that for better outcomes, in addition to "reactive" interventions, "pre-emptive" strategies also need to be instituted. We conclude that emphasizing both "reactive" and "pre-emptive" strategies is more likely to lead to better epidemic preparedness and response at individual, community, institutional, and government levels, resulting in timely containment of future Ebola

  20. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matua, Gerald Amandu; Van der Wal, Dirk Mostert; Locsin, Rozzano C

    2015-01-01

    Ebola hemorrhagic fever, caused by the highly virulent RNA virus of the filoviridae family, has become one of the world's most feared pathogens. The virus induces acute fever and death, often associated with hemorrhagic symptoms in up to 90% of infected patients. The known sub-types of the virus are Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest, Bundibugyo and Reston Ebola viruses. In the past, outbreaks were limited to the East and Central African tropical belt with the exception of Ebola Reston outbreaks that occurred in animal facilities in the Philippines, USA and Italy. The on-going outbreak in West Africa that is causing numerous deaths and severe socio-economic challenges has resulted in widespread anxiety globally. This panic may be attributed to the intense media interest, the rapid spread of the virus to other countries like United States and Spain, and moreover, to the absence of an approved treatment or vaccine. Informed by this widespread fear and anxiety, we analyzed the commonly used strategies to manage and control Ebola outbreaks and proposed new approaches that could improve epidemic management and control during future outbreaks. We based our recommendations on epidemic management practices employed during recent outbreaks in East, Central and West Africa, and synthesis of peer-reviewed publications as well as published "field" information from individuals and organizations recently involved in the management of Ebola epidemics. The current epidemic management approaches are largely "reactive", with containment efforts aimed at halting spread of existing outbreaks. We recommend that for better outcomes, in addition to "reactive" interventions, "pre-emptive" strategies also need to be instituted. We conclude that emphasizing both "reactive" and "pre-emptive" strategies is more likely to lead to better epidemic preparedness and response at individual, community, institutional, and government levels, resulting in timely containment of future Ebola outbreaks. Copyright

  1. Space Weather Forecasting: An Enigma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojka, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    The space age began in earnest on October 4, 1957 with the launch of Sputnik 1 and was fuelled for over a decade by very strong national societal concerns. Prior to this single event the adverse effects of space weather had been registered on telegraph lines as well as interference on early WWII radar systems, while for countless eons the beauty of space weather as mid-latitude auroral displays were much appreciated. These prior space weather impacts were in themselves only a low-level science puzzle pursued by a few dedicated researchers. The technology boost and innovation that the post Sputnik era generated has almost single handedly defined our present day societal technology infrastructure. During the decade following Neil's walk on the moon on July 21, 1969 an international thrust to understand the science of space, and its weather, was in progress. However, the search for scientific understand was parsed into independent "stove pipe" categories: The ionosphere-aeronomy, the magnetosphere, the heliosphere-sun. The present day scientific infrastructure of funding agencies, learned societies, and international organizations are still hampered by these 1960's logical divisions which today are outdated in the pursuit of understanding space weather. As this era of intensive and well funded scientific research progressed so did societies innovative uses for space technologies and space "spin-offs". Well over a decade ago leaders in technology, science, and the military realized that there was indeed an adverse side to space weather that with each passing year became more severe. In 1994 several U.S. agencies established the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) to focus scientific attention on the system wide issue of the adverse effects of space weather on society and its technologies. Indeed for the past two decades a significant fraction of the scientific community has actively engaged in understanding space weather and hence crossing the "stove

  2. Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters

    CERN Document Server

    Healey, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Australia is a vast land in which weather varies significantly in different parts of the continent. Recent extreme weather events in Australia, such as the Queensland floods and Victorian bushfires, are brutal reminders of nature's devastating power. Is global warming increasing the rate of natural disasters? What part do La Niña and El Niño play in the extreme weather cycle? Cyclones, floods, severe storms, bushfires, landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis - what are the natural and man-made causes of these phenomena, how predictable are they, and how prepared are we for the impacts of natural dis

  3. STEREO Space Weather and the Space Weather Beacon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biesecker, D. A.; Webb, D F.; SaintCyr, O. C.

    2007-01-01

    The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) is first and foremost a solar and interplanetary research mission, with one of the natural applications being in the area of space weather. The obvious potential for space weather applications is so great that NOAA has worked to incorporate the real-time data into their forecast center as much as possible. A subset of the STEREO data will be continuously downlinked in a real-time broadcast mode, called the Space Weather Beacon. Within the research community there has been considerable interest in conducting space weather related research with STEREO. Some of this research is geared towards making an immediate impact while other work is still very much in the research domain. There are many areas where STEREO might contribute and we cannot predict where all the successes will come. Here we discuss how STEREO will contribute to space weather and many of the specific research projects proposed to address STEREO space weather issues. We also discuss some specific uses of the STEREO data in the NOAA Space Environment Center.

  4. Outbreak of neurological disorder associated with Streptococcus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Outbreak of neurological disorder associated with Streptococcus suis in a pig ... Kenya was referred to Department of Veterinary Pathology, Microbiology and ... was a hemolytic S. suis that was isolated from meninges and lungs tissues.

  5. Infection control during filoviral hemorrhagic fever outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N Raabe Vanessa

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Breaking the human-to-human transmission cycle remains the cornerstone of infection control during filoviral (Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever outbreaks. This requires effective identification and isolation of cases, timely contact tracing and monitoring, proper usage of barrier personal protection gear by health workers, and safely conducted burials. Solely implementing these measures is insufficient for infection control; control efforts must be culturally sensitive and conducted in a transparent manner to promote the necessary trust between the community and infection control team in order to succeed. This article provides a review of the literature on infection control during filoviral hemorrhagic fever outbreaks focusing on outbreaks in a developing setting and lessons learned from previous outbreaks. The primary search database used to review the literature was PUBMED, the National Library of Medicine website.

  6. Outbreak of Nosocomial Listeriosis — Texas, 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: Invasive listeriosis is a potentially fatal foodborne disease caused by Listeria monocytogenes. In February 2010, a listeriosis cluster was identified in Texas. We investigated to confirm the outbreak, identify the source, and prevent additional infections. Methods: All clinical isol...

  7. Anthrax Outbreaks in Bangladesh, 2009–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Apurba; Khan, Salah Uddin; Hasnat, Mohammed Abul; Parveen, Shahana; Islam, M. Saiful; Mikolon, Andrea; Chakraborty, Ranjit Kumar; Ahmed, Be-Nazir; Ara, Khorsed; Haider, Najmul; Zaki, Sherif R.; Hoffmaster, Alex R.; Rahman, Mahmudur; Luby, Stephen P.; Hossain, M. Jahangir

    2012-01-01

    During August 2009–October 2010, a multidisciplinary team investigated 14 outbreaks of animal and human anthrax in Bangladesh to identify the etiology, pathway of transmission, and social, behavioral, and cultural factors that led to these outbreaks. The team identified 140 animal cases of anthrax and 273 human cases of cutaneous anthrax. Ninety one percent of persons in whom cutaneous anthrax developed had history of butchering sick animals, handling raw meat, contact with animal skin, or were present at slaughtering sites. Each year, Bacillus anthracis of identical genotypes were isolated from animal and human cases. Inadequate livestock vaccination coverage, lack of awareness of the risk of anthrax transmission from animal to humans, social norms and poverty contributed to these outbreaks. Addressing these challenges and adopting a joint animal and human health approach could contribute to detecting and preventing such outbreaks in the future. PMID:22492157

  8. KZBW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  9. Fish Springs weather CY 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Weather data for calendar year 2011 at Fish Springs National Wildlife Refuge. Data is provided for each month and includes maximum temperature, minimum temperature,...

  10. Fish Springs weather CY 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Weather data for calendar year 2010 at Fish Springs National Wildlife Refuge. Data is provided for each month and includes maximum temperature, minimum temperature,...

  11. The science of space weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwood, Jonathan P

    2008-12-13

    The basic physics underpinning space weather is reviewed, beginning with a brief overview of the main causes of variability in the near-Earth space environment. Although many plasma phenomena contribute to space weather, one of the most important is magnetic reconnection, and recent cutting edge research in this field is reviewed. We then place this research in context by discussing a number of specific types of space weather in more detail. As society inexorably increases its dependence on space, the necessity of predicting and mitigating space weather will become ever more acute. This requires a deep understanding of the complexities inherent in the plasmas that fill space and has prompted the development of a new generation of scientific space missions at the international level.

  12. KZOA Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  13. KZSE Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  14. KZMA Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  15. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  16. Surface Weather Observations (Pre-1893)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly weather records from U.S. Army Forts stations (~1820-1871), U.S. Army Signal Service Stations (1871-1892), Smithsonian Institution voluntary observer network...

  17. KZLC Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  18. Weather data communication and utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcfarland, R. H.; Nickum, J. D.; Mccall, D. L.

    1983-01-01

    The communication of weather data to aircraft is discussed. Problems encountered because of the great quantities of data available and the limited capacity to transfer this via radio link to an aircraft are discussed. Display devices are discussed.

  19. Practical Weathering for Geology Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodder, A. Peter

    1990-01-01

    The design and data management of an activity to study weathering by increasing the rate of mineral dissolution in a microwave oven is described. Data analysis in terms of parabolic and first-order kinetics is discussed. (CW)

  20. WARP Weather Information Network Server

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — WINS is the dissemination module of the WARP system that provides an interface to various NAS Users/systems that require weather data/products/information from WARP...

  1. Northern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Daily Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Part I consists of plotted and analyzed daily maps of sea-level and 500-mb maps for 0300, 0400, 1200, 1230, 1300, and 1500...

  2. Foodborne outbreaks in Canada linked to produce: 2001 through 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozak, G K; MacDonald, D; Landry, L; Farber, J M

    2013-01-01

    Foodborne disease outbreaks associated with fresh fruits and vegetables have been increasing in occurrence worldwide. Canada has one of the highest per capita consumption rates of fresh fruits and vegetables in the world. In this article, we review the foodborne disease outbreaks linked to produce consumption in Canada from 2001 through 2009. The 27 produce-related outbreaks included an estimated 1,549 cases of illness. Bacterial infection outbreaks represented 66% of the total. Among these, Salmonella was the most frequent agent (50% of outbreaks) followed by Escherichia coli (33%) and Shigella (17%). Cyclospora cayetanensis was the only parasite detected and was associated with seven outbreaks. Among the foodborne viruses, only hepatitis A was implicated in two outbreaks. The food vehicles most commonly implicated in outbreaks were leafy greens and herbs (26% of outbreaks), followed by seed sprouts (11%). Contamination sources and issues related to the future control of fresh produce-related foodborne disease outbreaks also are discussed.

  3. Titan: Callisto With Weather?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J. M.; Pappalardo, R. T.

    2008-12-01

    , Titan might have accreted relatively cold. Without being in a forced resonance, Titan's interior may have never undergone significant tidal heating. Analogous to Callisto's tenuous CO2 atmosphere, believed to be generated by sublimation of interior ices, interior clathrated methane within Titan may slowly diffuse outward from the cold interior, rather than the atmosphere being replenished by cryovolcanism. The hypothesis that Titan is "Callisto with weather" -- with geological processes that are principally exogenic -- can be tested through geophysical and thermal modeling, and by modeling the evolution of landscapes that are shaped by exogenic processes alone.

  4. Weather Regimes: The Challenge in Extended-Range Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhold, Brian

    1987-01-01

    A hypothesis to explain the low-frequency (10- to 90-day) variance of the mid-latitude atmosphere is presented. In this hypothesis it is proposed that the planetary-scale waves forced by topography or other zonal inhomogeneities and the day-to-day weather disturbances (synoptic scales) influence each other to generate weather regimes. These quasi-stable flow configurations are responsible for short-range climate anomalies such as droughts, heat waves, deep freezes, and excessive precipitation, as the weather-producing disturbances are organized into storm tracks. Onset and disruption of the weather regimes may be induced by the anomalous development of perhaps a single cyclonic disturbance, which can throw the quasi equilibrium out of balance. Thus, rapid changes in flow regimes can occur almost at random. The development and transition of weather regimes may then be purely internal (that is, depending only upon the properties of the fluid motions themselves) to the atmospheric dynamics. This internal quality suggests that the chaotic, abrupt short-range climatic behavior of the mid-latitudes is a natural behavior of the system that requires no assistance from the outside. The weather regime concept presents a different view of the extended-range atmospheric behavior than the stimulus-response model, such as the atmospheric response to the El Nino.

  5. An outbreak of cardiovascular syndromes requiring urgent medical treatment and its association with environmental factors: an ecological study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willmore Alan

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In April 2005, syndromic surveillance based on statistical control chart methods in Sydney, Australia, signalled increasing incidence of urgent emergency department visits for cardiovascular and chest pain syndromes compared to the preceding twelve months. This paper aimed to determine whether environmental factors could have been responsible for this 'outbreak'. Methods The outcome studied was daily counts of emergency department visits for cardiovascular or chest pain syndromes that were considered immediately or imminently life threatening on arrival at hospital. The outbreak had a mean daily count of 5.7 visits sustained for eight weeks, compared with 4.0 in the same months in previous years. Poisson regression was used to systematically assess the emergency department visits in relation to available daily weather and pollution variables by first finding the best model that explained short-term variation in the outcome over the period 25 January 2002 to 31 May 2005, and then assessing interactions of all available variables with the 'outbreak' period, April-May 2005. Rate ratios were estimated for an interquartile increase in each variable meaning that the ratio measures the relative increase (or decrease in the emergency department visits for an interquartile increase in the weather or pollution variable. The rate ratios for the outbreak period measure the relative increase (or decrease in the emergency department visits for an interquartile increase in the weather or pollution variable during the outbreak period only. Results The best fitting model over the whole study period included minimum temperature with a rate ratio (RR of 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI, 0.77–0.96, maximum relative humidity of 1.09 (95% CI 1.05–1.14 and minimum daily particulate matter less than 10 microns (PM10 of 1.05 (95% CI, 1.01–1.09. During the outbreak period, maximum temperature (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.03–1.57, solar radiation (RR 1

  6. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  7. Waterborne outbreak control: which disinfectant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, E W; Hoff, J C; Lippy, E C

    1982-12-01

    Drinking water disinfection was shown to be an important public health measure around the turn of the century. In the United States, it was perhaps the single most important factor in controlling typhoid fever, a waterborne disease that was rampant throughout the world during the last century. It may also be assumed that disinfection was important in limiting the number of cases of other diseases known to be capable of waterborne transmission, i.e., cholera, amebiasis, shigellosis, salmonellosis, and hepatitis A. Even though modern treatment has eliminated water as a major vehicle of infectious disease transmission, outbreaks still occur. In fact, the annual number has been increasing since 1966. Interruption in chlorination or failure to achieve adequate levels of chlorine residual is the most often identified deficiency of the involved water supplies. This finding indicates that waterborne microbial pathogens remain as a potential health threat and underscores the importance of disinfection. From the outset, chlorination has been the drinking water disinfectant of choice in the country. Numerous studies have demonstrated its ability to inactivate bacterial, viral, and protozoal pathogens when applied under proper conditions. However, the finding that chlorinated organics that are potentially carcinogenic are formed has prompted an evaluation of alternative disinfectants. The viable alternatives to chlorine currently under consideration for widespread use are ozone, chlorine dioxide, and chloramines. In terms of biocidal efficiency, ozone is the most potent of the three. Chlorine dioxide is about the equivalent of free chlorine in the hypochlorous acid form but much more efficient than the hypochlorite form of free chlorine. The chloramines are weaker biocides than hypochlorite. Although this general order of ranking of efficiency holds for diverse types of microorganisms, quantitative comparisons vary with different microorganisms and experimental conditions.

  8. Four foodborne disease outbreaks caused by a new type of enterotoxin-producing Clostridium perfringens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monma, Chie; Hatakeyama, Kaoru; Obata, Hiromi; Yokoyama, Keiko; Konishi, Noriko; Itoh, Takeshi; Kai, Akemi

    2015-03-01

    The epidemiological and bacteriological investigations on four foodborne outbreaks caused by a new type of enterotoxin-producing Clostridium perfringens are described. C. perfringens isolated from patients of these outbreaks did not produce any known enterotoxin and did not carry the C. perfringens enterotoxin gene. However, the culture filtrates of these isolates induced the accumulation of fluid in rabbit ileal loop tests. The molecular weight of the new enterotoxin may be between 50,000 and 100,000, although the known C. perfringens enterotoxin is ca. 35,000. This new enterotoxin was heat labile, and its biological activities were inactivated by heating for 5 min at 60°C. The new enterotoxin was sensitive to pH values higher than 11.0 and protease treatment but was resistant to trypsin treatment. These results suggest that the new enterotoxin may be a protein. Although C. perfringens enterotoxin induced morphological changes in Vero cells, the changes induced by the new enterotoxin differed from those by the known C. perfringens enterotoxin. The new enterotoxin also induced morphological changes in L929 cells, whereas the known C. perfringens enterotoxin did not, because L929 cells lacked an appropriate enterotoxin receptor. Although C. perfringens enterotoxin is recognized as the only diarrheagenic toxin responsible for C. perfringens foodborne outbreaks, the results of the present study indicate that C. perfringens isolated from these four outbreaks produced a new type of enterotoxin.

  9. Measles Outbreak in Pediatric Hematology and Oncology Patients in Shanghai, 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan-Ling Ge

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: The outcome of measles outbreak in previously vaccinated oncology and post-HSCT pediatric patients during chemotherapy and immunosuppressant medication was severe. Complete loss of protective immunity induced by measles vaccine during chemotherapy was the potential reason. Improved infection control practice was critical for the prevention of measles in malignancy patients and transplant recipients.

  10. Forecasting fluctuating outbreaks in seasonally driven epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Lewi

    2009-03-01

    Seasonality is a driving force that has major impact on the spatio-temporal dynamics of natural systems and their populations. This is especially true for the transmission of common infectious diseases such as influenza, measles, chickenpox, and pertussis. Here we gain new insights into the nonlinear dynamics of recurrent diseases through the analysis of the classical seasonally forced SIR epidemic model. Despite many efforts over the last decades, it has been difficult to gain general analytical insights because of the complex synchronization effects that can evolve between the external forcing and the model's natural oscillations. The analysis advanced here attempts to make progress in this direction by focusing on the dynamics of ``skips'' where we identify and predict years in which the epidemic is absent rather than outbreak years. Skipping events are intrinsic to the forced SIR model when parameterised in the chaotic regime. In fact, it is difficult if not impossible to locate realistic chaotic parameter regimes in which outbreaks occur regularly each year. This contrasts with the well known Rossler oscillator whose outbreaks recur regularly but whose amplitude vary chaotically in time (Uniform Phase Chaotic Amplitude oscillations). The goal of the present study is to develop a ``language of skips'' that makes it possible to predict under what conditions the next outbreak is likely to occur, and how many ``skips'' might be expected after any given outbreak. We identify a new threshold effect and give clear analytical conditions that allow accurate predictions. Moreover, the time of occurrence (i.e., phase) of an outbreak proves to be a useful new parameter that carries important epidemiological information. In forced systems, seasonal changes can prevent late-initiating outbreaks (i.e., having high phase) from running to completion. These principles yield forecasting tools that should have relevance for the study of newly emerging and reemerging diseases.

  11. Measles & rubella outbreaks in Maharashtra State, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidya, Sunil R; Kamble, Madhukar B; Chowdhury, Deepika T; Kumbhar, Neelakshi S

    2016-02-01

    Under the outbreak-based measles surveillance in Maharashtra State the National Institute of Virology at Pune receives 3-5 serum samples from each outbreak and samples from the local hospitals in Pune for laboratory diagnosis. This report describes one year data on the measles and rubella serology, virus isolation and genotyping. Maharashtra State Health Agencies investigated 98 suspected outbreaks between January-December 2013 in the 20 districts. Altogether, 491 serum samples were received from 20 districts and 126 suspected cases from local hospitals. Samples were tested for the measles and rubella IgM antibodies by commercial enzyme immunoassay (EIA). To understand the diagnostic utility, a subset of serum samples (n=53) was tested by measles focus reduction neutralization test (FRNT). Further, 37 throat swabs and 32 urine specimens were tested by measles reverse transcription (RT)-PCR and positive products were sequenced. Virus isolation was performed in Vero hSLAM cells. Of the 98 suspected measles outbreaks, 61 were confirmed as measles, 12 as rubella and 21 confirmed as the mixed outbreaks. Four outbreaks remained unconfirmed. Of the 126 cases from the local hospitals, 91 were confirmed for measles and three for rubella. Overall, 93.6 per cent (383/409) confirmed measles cases were in the age group of 0-15 yr. Measles virus was detected in 18 of 38 specimens obtained from the suspected cases. Sequencing of PCR products revealed circulation of D4 (n=9) and D8 (n=9) strains. Four measles viruses (three D4 & one D8) were isolated. Altogether, 94 measles and rubella outbreaks were confirmed in 2013 in the State of Maharasthra indicating the necessity to increase measles vaccine coverage in the State.

  12. Quantitative Chemical Indices of Weathered Igneous Rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A study was conducted to compare the effectiveness of different weathering indices for characterising weathered igneous rocks of Hong Kong. Among eight chemical indices evaluated in this study, the Parker index has been found most suitable for a quantitative description of state of weathering. Based on geochemical results of 174 samples, the index decreases almost linearly with an increasing extent of weathering. The results enable a better understanding of the modification of geotechnical properties of igneous rocks associated with weathering processes.

  13. Weather Regime-Dependent Predictability: Sequentially Linked High-Impact Weather Events over the United States during March 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Winters, A. C.; Keyser, D.

    2016-12-01

    High-impact weather events (HWEs), defined by episodes of excessive precipitation or periods of well above or well below normal temperatures, can pose important predictability challenges on medium-range (8-16 day) time scales. Furthermore, HWEs can contribute disproportionately to temperature and precipitation anomaly statistics for a particular season. This disproportionate contribution suggests that HWEs need to be considered in describing and understanding the dynamical and thermodynamic processes that operate at the weather-climate intersection. HWEs typically develop in conjunction with highly amplified flow patterns that permit an extensive latitudinal exchange of polar and tropical air masses. Highly amplified flow patterns over North America often occur in response to a reconfiguration of the large-scale upstream flow pattern over the North Pacific Ocean. The large-scale flow pattern over the North Pacific, North America, and western North Atlantic during the latter half of March 2016 was characterized by frequent cyclonic wave breaking (CWB). This large-scale flow pattern enabled three sequentially linked HWEs to develop over the continental United States. The first HWE was a challenging-to-predict cyclogenesis event on 23-24 March in the central Plains that resulted in both a major snowstorm along the Colorado Front Range and a severe weather outbreak over the central and southern Plains. The second HWE was a severe weather outbreak that occurred over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys on 27-28 March. The third HWE was the development of well below normal temperatures over the eastern United States that followed the formation of a high-latitude omega block over northwestern North America during 28 March-1 April. This study will examine (1) the role that CWB over the North Pacific and North America played in the evolution of the flow pattern during late-March 2016 and the development of the three HWEs and (2) the skill of GFS operational and ensemble

  14. Space Weather - the Economic Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisi, M. M.; Gibbs, M.

    2015-12-01

    Following on from the UK Government's placement of space weather on it's National Risk Register, in 2011, and the Royal Academy of Engineering's study into the impacts of a severe space weather event, the next piece of key evidence, to underpin future investment decisions, is understanding the socio-economic impact of space weather This poster outlines a study, funded by the UK Space Agency, which will assess the socio-economic cost of space weather, both severe events, such as 1989 & a modern day repeat of the Carrington storm and also the cost of day-to-day impacts. The study will go on to estimate the cost benefit of forecasting and also investigate options for an operational L5 spacecraft mission and knowledge exchange activities with the South African Space Agency. The findings from the initial space weather socio-economic literature review will be presented along with other findings to date and sets out the tasks for the remainder of this programme of work.

  15. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  16. Weathering of the New Albany Shale, Kentucky, USA: I. Weathering zones defined by mineralogy and major-element composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuttle, M.L.W.; Breit, G.N.

    2009-01-01

    Comprehensive understanding of chemical and mineralogical changes induced by weathering is valuable information when considering the supply of nutrients and toxic elements from rocks. Here minerals that release and fix major elements during progressive weathering of a bed of Devonian New Albany Shale in eastern Kentucky are documented. Samples were collected from unweathered core (parent shale) and across an outcrop excavated into a hillside 40 year prior to sampling. Quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogical data record progressive shale alteration across the outcrop. Mineral compositional changes reflect subtle alteration processes such as incongruent dissolution and cation exchange. Altered primary minerals include K-feldspars, plagioclase, calcite, pyrite, and chlorite. Secondary minerals include jarosite, gypsum, goethite, amorphous Fe(III) oxides and Fe(II)-Al sulfate salt (efflorescence). The mineralogy in weathered shale defines four weathered intervals on the outcrop-Zones A-C and soil. Alteration of the weakly weathered shale (Zone A) is attributed to the 40-a exposure of the shale. In this zone, pyrite oxidization produces acid that dissolves calcite and attacks chlorite, forming gypsum, jarosite, and minor efflorescent salt. The pre-excavation, active weathering front (Zone B) is where complete pyrite oxidation and alteration of feldspar and organic matter result in increased permeability. Acidic weathering solutions seep through the permeable shale and evaporate on the surface forming abundant efflorescent salt, jarosite and minor goethite. Intensely weathered shale (Zone C) is depleted in feldspars, chlorite, gypsum, jarosite and efflorescent salts, but has retained much of its primary quartz, illite and illite-smectite. Goethite and amorphous FE(III) oxides increase due to hydrolysis of jarosite. Enhanced permeability in this zone is due to a 14% loss of the original mass in parent shale. Denudation rates suggest that characteristics of Zone C

  17. Severe dengue outbreak in Yunnan, China, 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Chun Zhang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, the impact of dengue has increased both geographically and in intensity, and this disease is now a threat to approximately half of the world's population. An unexpected large outbreak of dengue fever was reported in Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China, in 2013. This was the first autochthonous outbreak with a significant proportion of severe dengue cases in mainland China in a decade. According to the 2009 World Health Organization guidelines, half of the 136 laboratory confirmed cases during the epidemic were severe dengue. The clinical presentation included severe haemorrhage (such as massive vaginal and gastrointestinal bleeding, severe plasma leakage (such as pleural effusion, ascites, or hypoproteinaemia, and organ involvement (such as myocarditis and lung impairment; 21 cases eventually deteriorated to shock. During this outbreak, all severe cases occurred in adults, among whom about 43% had co-morbid conditions. Nucleic acid detection and virus isolation confirmed dengue virus serotype 3 (DENV-3 to be the pathogenic agent of this outbreak. Phylogenetic analyses of envelope gene sequences showed that these DENV-3 isolates belonged to genotype II. This finding is of great importance to understand the circulation of DENV and predict the risk of severe disease in mainland China. Here, we provide a brief report of the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, and aetiology of this dengue fever outbreak, and characterize DENV strains isolated from clinical specimens.

  18. Space Weather, Environment and Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean

    2006-01-01

    Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

  19. An Outbreak of Foodborne Botulism in Ontario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mona R Loutfy

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Botulism is a rare paralytic illness resulting from a potent neurotoxin produced by Clostridium botulinum. Botulism in Canada is predominately due to C botulinum type E and affects mainly the First Nations and Inuit populations. The most recent outbreak of botulism in Ontario was in Ottawa in 1991 and was caused by C botulinum type A. We report an outbreak of foodborne type B botulism in Ontario, which implicated home-canned tomatoes. The outbreak was characterized by mild symptoms in two cases and moderately severe illness in one case. The investigation shows the importance of considering the diagnosis of botulism in patients presenting with cranial nerve and autonomic dysfunction, especially when combined with gastrointestinal complaints; it also highlights the importance of proper home canning technique.

  20. Outbreak of Mysterious Illness Among Hospital Staff

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Peter; Ebbehøj, Niels Erik

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Hospitals are rarely reported as settings for mass psychogenic illness (MPI). The present report scrutinizes an outbreak of probable MPI among hospital staff, with medical intervention reinforcing the course of the illness. CASE REPORT: Four of seven staff members in an emergency depa....... Outbreaks of illness in a group of symptomatic victims without indication of significant physical disease should be managed by observation and limited intervention.......BACKGROUND: Hospitals are rarely reported as settings for mass psychogenic illness (MPI). The present report scrutinizes an outbreak of probable MPI among hospital staff, with medical intervention reinforcing the course of the illness. CASE REPORT: Four of seven staff members in an emergency...... the following 9 days, 14 possible poisoning victims were identified, 6 of whom were transferred for HBO. After hospital stays with repeated HBO treatment and examinations without identification of significant physical disease, the majority of the 10 HBO-treated victims remained symptomatic, some on prolonged...

  1. Pneumonic Plague Outbreak, Northern Madagascar, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Vincent; Herindrainy, Perlinot; Soanandrasana, Rahelinirina; Ratsitoharina, Maherisoa; Rakotomanana, Fanjasoa; Andrianalimanana, Samuel; Scholz, Holger C.; Rajerison, Minoarisoa

    2015-01-01

    Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, is endemic to Madagascar, particularly to the central highlands. Although plague has not been previously reported in northern Madagascar, an outbreak of pneumonic plague occurred in this remote area in 2011. Over a 27-day period, 17 suspected, 2 presumptive, and 3 confirmed human cases were identified, and all 15 untreated 20 patients died. Molecular typing of Y. pestis isolated from 2 survivors and 5 Rattus rattus rat samples identified the Madagascar-specific 1.ORI3-k single-nucleotide polymorphism genotype and 4 clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat patterns. This outbreak had a case-fatality rate of 100% for nontreated patients. The Y. pestis 1.ORI3-k single-nucleotide polymorphism genotype might cause larger epidemics. Multidrug-resistant strains and persistence of the pathogen in natural foci near human settlements pose severe risks to populations in plague-endemic regions and require outbreak response strategies. PMID:25530466

  2. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  3. Detecting and responding to a dengue outbreak: evaluation of existing strategies in country outbreak response planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Julia; Kroeger, Axel; Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia; O'Dempsey, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Background. Dengue outbreaks are occurring with increasing frequency and intensity. Evidence-based epidemic preparedness and effective response are now a matter of urgency. Therefore, we have analysed national and municipal dengue outbreak response plans. Methods. Thirteen country plans from Asia, Latin America and Australia, and one international plan were obtained from the World Health Organization. The information was transferred to a data analysis matrix where information was extracted according to predefined and emerging themes and analysed for scope, inconsistencies, omissions, and usefulness. Findings. Outbreak response planning currently has a considerable number of flaws. Outbreak governance was weak with a lack of clarity of stakeholder roles. Late timing of responses due to poor surveillance, a lack of combining routine data with additional alerts, and lack of triggers for initiating the response weakened the functionality of plans. Frequently an outbreak was not defined, and early response mechanisms based on alert signals were neglected. There was a distinct lack of consideration of contextual influences which can affect how an outbreak detection and response is managed. Conclusion. A model contingency plan for dengue outbreak prediction, detection, and response may help national disease control authorities to develop their own more detailed and functional context specific plans.

  4. Developing An Explanatory Prediction Model Based On Rainfall Patterns For Cholera Outbreaks In Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Merwe, M. R.; Du Preez, M.

    2012-12-01

    Cholera has become endemic in coastal and inland areas within the tropics as well as areas outside of the tropics in Africa. Climate conditions and weather patterns differ between areas reporting cholera cases in Africa. Some areas experience two rainfall seasons compared to areas with only one rainfall season in a year. Further, climate variability or ENSO events affect local weather conditions differently. La Niña, i.e. cold events lead to higher than normal rainfall in areas in southern Africa compared to areas close to the equator in eastern Africa which report less than normal rainfall. Time series analysis of cholera cases and rainfall data at different spatial resolutions highlight the overlap of the rainfall season with the reporting of cholera cases. Cholera cases are also reported in between rainy seasons in different areas but the incidence is significantly less compared to the rainy season. An increase in the intensity of outbreaks is also noted during the rainy season following a drier than normal 'dry' season. This necessitates the understanding of the reasons for the observed correlation between rainfall season and cholera outbreaks in order to develop a prediction model which can accurately predict the likelihood of an outbreak. Due to the complexities associated with accurately predicting weather data more than seven days ahead of time it is necessary to identify global drivers with a lagged effect on local rainfall patterns. Climate variability, i.e. ENSO is investigated at different temporal scales; spatial locations and time lags. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) measured closed to the equator and in the southern parts of the Indian Ocean are more closely associated with rainfall anomalies at specific time lags in equatorial, East African, south East African and central African areas compared to SSTa measured in different regions in the Pacific Ocean. An explanatory prediction model is developed for conditions in Mozambique (coastal

  5. Dynamic monitoring and prediction of Dianchi Lake cyanobacteria outbreaks in the context of rapid urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yi; Yang, Kun; Yu, Zhenyu; Chen, Junyi; Xu, Yufei; Zhou, Xiaolu; Yang, Yang

    2017-02-01

    Water crises have been among the most serious environmental problems worldwide since the twenty-first century. A water crisis is marked by a severe shortage of water resources and deteriorating water quality. As an important component of water resources, lake water quality has deteriorated rapidly in the context of fast urbanization and climate change. This deterioration has altered the water ecosystem structure and influenced lake functionality. To curb these trends, various strategies and procedures have been used in many urban lakes. Among these procedures, accurate and responsive water environment monitoring is the basis of the forecasting and prevention of large-scale cyanobacteria outbreaks and improvement of water quality. To dynamically monitor and predict the outbreak of cyanobacteria in Dianchi Lake, in this study, wireless sensors networks (WSNs) and the geographic information system (GIS) are used to monitor water quality at the macro-scale and meso-scale. Historical, real-time water quality and weather condition data were collected, and a combination prediction model (adaptive grey model (AGM) and back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN)) was proposed. The correlation coefficient (R) of the simulation experiment reached 0.995. Moreover, we conducted an empirical experiment in Dianchi Lake, Yunnan, China using the proposed method. R was 0.93, and the predicting error was 4.77. The results of the experiment suggest that our model has good performance for water quality prediction and can forecast cyanobacteria outbreaks. This system provides responsive forewarning and data support for lake protection and pollution control.

  6. Do insect outbreaks reduce the severity of subsequent forest fires?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meigs, Garrett W.; Zald, Harold S. J.; Campbell, John L.; Keeton, William S.; Kennedy, Robert E.

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of rapid environmental change is an essential scientific frontier, particularly given the threat of climate- and land use-induced changes in disturbance regimes. In western North America, recent widespread insect outbreaks and wildfires have sparked acute concerns about potential insect-fire interactions. Although previous research shows that insect activity typically does not increase wildfire likelihood, key uncertainties remain regarding insect effects on wildfire severity (i.e., ecological impact). Recent assessments indicate that outbreak severity and burn severity are not strongly associated, but these studies have been limited to specific insect or fire events. Here, we present a regional census of large wildfire severity following outbreaks of two prevalent bark beetle and defoliator species, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and western spruce budworm (Choristoneura freemani), across the US Pacific Northwest. We first quantify insect effects on burn severity with spatial modeling at the fire event scale and then evaluate how these effects vary across the full population of insect-fire events (n = 81 spanning 1987-2011). In contrast to common assumptions of positive feedbacks, we find that insects generally reduce the severity of subsequent wildfires. Specific effects vary with insect type and timing, but both insects decrease the abundance of live vegetation susceptible to wildfire at multiple time lags. By dampening subsequent burn severity, native insects could buffer rather than exacerbate fire regime changes expected due to land use and climate change. In light of these findings, we recommend a precautionary approach when designing and implementing forest management policies intended to reduce wildfire hazard and increase resilience to global change.

  7. Recent Activities on the Embrace Space Weather Regional Warning Center: the New Space Weather Data Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dal Lago, Alisson; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Takahashi, Hisao; Costa, D. Joaquim; Banik Padua, Marcelo; Campos Velho, Haroldo

    2016-07-01

    On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is known by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement "Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial" Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The mission of the Embrace/INPE program is to monitor the Solar-Terrestrial environment, the magnetosphere, the upper atmosphere and the ground induced currents to prevent effects on technological and economic activities. The Embrace/INPE system monitors the physical parameters of the Sun-Earth environment, such as Active Regions (AR) in the Sun and solar radiation by using radio telescope, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) information by satellite and ground-based cosmic ray monitoring, geomagnetic activity by the magnetometer network, and ionospheric disturbance by ionospheric sounders and using data collected by four GPS receiver network, geomagnetic activity by a magnetometer network, and provides a forecasting for Total Electronic Content (TEC) - 24 hours ahead - using a version of the SUPIM model which assimilates the two latter data using nudging approach. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. Regarding outreach, it has being published a daily bulletin in Portuguese and English with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus. Recently, a comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under commissioning to allow an easy and direct access to all the space weather data collected by Embrace through the Embrace web Portal. The information being released encompasses data from: (a) the Embrace Digisonde Network (Embrace DigiNet) that monitors

  8. Salmonellosis outbreak due to chicken contact leading to a foodborne outbreak associated with infected delicatessen workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedican, Erin; Miller, Ben; Ziemer, Brian; LeMaster, Pam; Jawahir, Selina; Leano, Fe; Smith, Kirk

    2010-08-01

    Salmonella is the most common bacterial cause of foodborne outbreaks in the United States. Starting in June 2007, investigation of a cluster of Salmonella Montevideo cases with indistinguishable pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns resulted in the identification of an outbreak associated with contact with chickens purchased from a single hatchery. Nine Minnesota cases from May through August 2007 were part of this outbreak. Cases with the outbreak PFGE pattern of Salmonella Montevideo continued to occur in Minnesota after August, but none of these cases reported chicken contact. The majority of these cases resided in the same town in rural Minnesota. Routine interviews revealed that all cases from these counties purchased groceries from the same local grocery store, with two specifically reporting consuming items from the grocery store delicatessen in the week before illness. As a result, an investigation into the delicatessen was initiated. Illness histories and stool samples were collected from all delicatessen employees, and food and environmental samples were collected. None of the employees reported experiencing recent gastrointestinal symptoms, but the outbreak PFGE subtype of Salmonella Montevideo was identified from stool from two food workers. Food and environmental samples collected tested negative for Salmonella. One of the positive employees reported having chickens at home, but the animals did not test positive for Salmonella. The positive food workers were excluded from work until they had two consecutive negative stool cultures for Salmonella. There was no evidence of ongoing transmission thereafter. This was an outbreak of Salmonella Montevideo infections that began as an animal-contact-associated outbreak which subsequently resulted in a foodborne outbreak associated with infected food workers. These outbreaks illustrate the complex epidemiology of salmonellosis.

  9. Cholera outbreaks in South-East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharati, Kaushik; Bhattacharya, S K

    2014-01-01

    This chapter highlights the cholera situation in South Asia and the Bay of Bengal region, the original 'homeland' of cholera. A detailed discussion of cholera outbreaks in individual countries in South-East Asia follows. The countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) SEARO (South-East Asia Region) region are discussed first, followed by discussions about the other countries in South-East Asia that do not fall within the purview of the WHO SEARO classification of the member countries of the region. Therefore, the chapter attempts to provide a comprehensive yet precise outline of the major cholera outbreaks that have occurred in the region over the years.

  10. The National Eclipse Weather Experiment: an assessment of citizen scientist weather observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, L; Portas, A M; Gray, S L; Harrison, R G

    2016-09-28

    The National Eclipse Weather Experiment (NEWEx) was a citizen science project designed to assess the effects of the 20 March 2015 partial solar eclipse on the weather over the United Kingdom (UK). NEWEx had two principal objectives: to provide a spatial network of meteorological observations across the UK to aid the investigation of eclipse-induced weather changes, and to develop a nationwide public engagement activity-based participation of citizen scientists. In total, NEWEx collected 15 606 observations of air temperature, cloudiness and wind speed and direction from 309 locations across the UK, over a 3 h window spanning the eclipse period. The headline results were processed in near real time, immediately published online, and featured in UK national press articles on the day of the eclipse. Here, we describe the technical development of NEWEx and how the observations provided by the citizen scientists were analysed. By comparing the results of the NEWEx analyses with results from other investigations of the same eclipse using different observational networks, including measurements from the University of Reading's Atmospheric Observatory, we demonstrate that NEWEx provided a fair representation of the change in the UK meteorological conditions throughout the eclipse. Despite the simplicity of the approach adopted, robust reductions in both temperature and wind speed during the eclipse were observed.This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'.

  11. Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Huang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDS: Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas, and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR:1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.01-2.28, monthly minimum temperature ((oC (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93, monthly relative humidity (% (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37, monthly rainfall (mm (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81 and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (% (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50. In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.

  12. Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Williams, Gail; Clements, Archie C A; Hu, Wenbiao

    2013-01-01

    Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas), and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR):1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-2.28), monthly minimum temperature ((o)C) (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93), monthly relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37), monthly rainfall (mm) (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81) and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50). In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67). Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.

  13. Tomorrow's Forecast: Oceans and Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smigielski, Alan

    1995-01-01

    This issue of "Art to Zoo" focuses on weather and climate and is tied to the traveling exhibition Ocean Planet from the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History. The lessons encourage students to think about the profound influence the oceans have on planetary climate and life on earth. Sections of the lesson plan include: (1) "Ocean…

  14. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  15. Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Hassan; Eshow, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview, presents the high level software architecture of DWR, based on the CTAS software framework and the Direct-To automation tool. The document also covers external and internal data flows, required dataset, changes to the Direct-To software for DWR, collection of software statistics, and the code structure.

  16. Mexican Space Weather Service (SCIESMEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; De la Luz, V.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Corona-Romero, P.; Gonzalez, L. X.

    2015-12-01

    Recent modifications of the Civil Protection Law in Mexico include now specific mentions to space hazards and space weather phenomena. During the last few years, the UN has promoted international cooperation on Space Weather awareness, studies and monitoring. Internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a Space Weather Service in Mexico (SCIESMEX). The SCIESMEX (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) is operated by the Geophysics Institute at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The UNAM has the experience of operating several critical national services, including the National Seismological Service (SSN); besides that has a well established scientific group with expertise in space physics and solar- terrestrial phenomena. The SCIESMEX is also related with the recent creation of the Mexican Space Agency (AEM). The project combines a network of different ground instruments covering solar, interplanetary, geomagnetic, and ionospheric observations. The SCIESMEX has already in operation computing infrastructure running the web application, a virtual observatory and a high performance computing server to run numerical models. SCIESMEX participates in the International Space Environment Services (ISES) and in the Inter-progamme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) of the Word Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  17. Analysis of epidemiological data of foodborne outbreak reported in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mehdi Soltan Dallal

    2015-02-01

    Conclusion: The knowledge of bacterial agent of foodborne diseases and determination of antimicrobial resistance pattern are helpful to reduce the rate of foodborne outbreaks, the cost of treatment. The prevention control of outbreaks is also very important.

  18. Weather-Corrected Performance Ratio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dierauf, T.; Growitz, A.; Kurtz, S.; Cruz, J. L. B.; Riley, E.; Hansen, C.

    2013-04-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) system performance depends on both the quality of the system and the weather. One simple way to communicate the system performance is to use the performance ratio (PR): the ratio of the electricity generated to the electricity that would have been generated if the plant consistently converted sunlight to electricity at the level expected from the DC nameplate rating. The annual system yield for flat-plate PV systems is estimated by the product of the annual insolation in the plane of the array, the nameplate rating of the system, and the PR, which provides an attractive way to estimate expected annual system yield. Unfortunately, the PR is, again, a function of both the PV system efficiency and the weather. If the PR is measured during the winter or during the summer, substantially different values may be obtained, making this metric insufficient to use as the basis for a performance guarantee when precise confidence intervals are required. This technical report defines a way to modify the PR calculation to neutralize biases that may be introduced by variations in the weather, while still reporting a PR that reflects the annual PR at that site given the project design and the project weather file. This resulting weather-corrected PR gives more consistent results throughout the year, enabling its use as a metric for performance guarantees while still retaining the familiarity this metric brings to the industry and the value of its use in predicting actual annual system yield. A testing protocol is also presented to illustrate the use of this new metric with the intent of providing a reference starting point for contractual content.

  19. Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Schauberger, Bernhard; Arneth, Almut; Balkovič, Juraj; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Müller, Christoph; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schewe, Jacob; Schmid, Erwin; Warszawski, Lila; Levermann, Anders

    2017-06-01

    Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

  20. Predicting and mitigating impacts of extreme space weather (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, D. N.

    2010-12-01

    Vulnerability of society to extreme space weather is an issue of increasing worldwide concern. For example, electric power networks connecting widely separated geographic areas may incur devastating damage induced by geomagnetic storms. Also, the miniaturization of electronic components in spacecraft systems makes them potentially much more susceptible to damage during space weather disturbances. The conclusion of a recent National Academy of Sciences report was that severe space weather events can cause tens of millions to many billions of dollars of damage to space and ground-based assets during major solar storms. The most extreme events could cause months-long power outages and could cost >1$ trillion. In this presentation, we discuss broad socioeconomic impacts of space weather and also discuss the immense potential benefits of improved space weather forecasts. Such forecasts take advantage of our increased understanding of the Earth’s space environmental conditions and the causative solar drivers. We consider scenarios of how forecasts could be used most effectively by policy makers and management officials.

  1. Forest dynamics after successive spruce budworm outbreaks in mixedwood forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard, Mathieu; Kneeshaw, Daniel; Bergeron, Yves

    2006-09-01

    In order to assess the long-term spatiotemporal influence of the spruce budworm in sub-boreal mixedwood forests, we studied the effect of three successive outbreaks in a region of western Quebec, Canada. We used dendrochronology to detect past outbreaks in three areas (111-185 ha), based on the recruitment age of balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and on growth patterns of white spruce (Picea glauca), the two main host species of this defoliating insect. We also used a series of aerial photographs taken between 1935 and 2003 to evaluate overstory mortality and post-outbreak succession patterns in these same areas. Individual outbreaks had a spatially homogenous impact on host species throughout the region, but successive outbreaks differed in intensity: the two outbreaks around 1910 and 1980 caused widespread mortality in the overstory, but an outbreak around 1945 had little impact, probably because the forest mosaic had not yet recuperated from the 1910 outbreak. No clear outbreak was detected in the later part of the 19th century. In portions of the study areas where the 1910 outbreak had a major impact, between 36% and 50% of the stands were reoccupied by balsam fir stands in the period up to the 1980 outbreak (cyclic succession), the rest being at least partly replaced by nonhost species such as Betula spp. Changes in forest composition after the 1910 outbreak were mostly associated with upper-slope positions in all study areas. The 1980 outbreak also had a higher impact than earlier outbreaks in lower-slope positions dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana)-balsam fir mixtures. These results suggest that, at the regional scale, the abundance of mature or over-mature balsam fir stands does not determine the outbreak cycle. When an outbreak occurs, however, its impact will be strongly constrained by forest characteristics such as stand composition and structure, which are themselves influenced by previous disturbances and slope position.

  2. Ground Zero revisits shape outbreaks: Zika and beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Manrique, Pedro D; Johnson, Neil F

    2016-01-01

    During an infection outbreak, many people continue to revisit Ground Zero - such as the one square mile of Miami involved in the current Zika outbreak- for work, family or social reasons. Public health planning must account for the counterintuitive ways in which this human flow affects the outbreak's duration, severity and time-to-peak. Managing this flow of revisits can allow the outbreak's evolution to be tailored.

  3. OpenWeather: a peer-to-peer weather data transmission protocol

    CERN Document Server

    Yanes, Adrian

    2011-01-01

    The study of the weather is performed using instruments termed weather stations. These weather stations are distributed around the world, collecting the data from the different phenomena. Several weather organizations have been deploying thousands of these instruments, creating big networks to collect weather data. These instruments are collecting the weather data and delivering it for later processing in the collections points. Nevertheless, all the methodologies used to transmit the weather data are based in protocols non adapted for this purpose. Thus, the weather stations are limited by the data formats and protocols used in them, not taking advantage of the real-time data available on them. We research the weather instruments, their technology and their network capabilities, in order to provide a solution for the mentioned problem. OpenWeather is the protocol proposed to provide a more optimum and reliable way to transmit the weather data. We evaluate the environmental factors, such as location or bandwi...

  4. Estimating the impact of wintry weather on transportation in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juga, I.; Rauhala, J.; Vajda, A.

    2010-09-01

    Wintry weather conditions have high impact on transportation. Sub-zero temperatures combined to snowfall result in traffic jams and increased accident rate. Dense snowfall causes poor grip between the road surface and tires and reduces the visibility, thus increasing the risk for severe pile-ups on highways. Low temperature and snowfall have a strong negative impact also on railway traffic and aviation, as experienced in Europe during winter 2009/10. Many big airfields in Central Europe were closed during several days and thousands of people had to spend the night at the airport or in the hotels nearby. The estimated total costs from a single major snowfall event can climb up to 1.3 billion pounds (1.5 billion euro), as happened in UK on 1-2 February 2009. By investigating the effect of hazardous winter weather conditions on different transport modes the worst situations can be identified and impact thresholds for different weather parameters and their combination can be assessed. In this study we estimate the impact thresholds for snowfall, wind gust and temperature as well as for their combination, the blizzard. This work is based on an impact review collected from literature and media reports as well as on local studies concerning the link between snowfall and traffic accidents for example. From the study on six winters it appears for example that a snowfall of 10 cm/24 h resulted in a double car accident rate on average in southern Finland. Such situations can be regarded as high impact cases (peak days of traffic accidents). It is estimated that climate change and global warming will decrease the average yearly number of wintry days in Europe. Even the northern part will probably have a shorter period of snow cover during the coming decades. However, the variability between different winters will remain and cold air outbreaks with even heavy snowfall can occasionally occur also during mild winters. Several studies have shown that the more uncommon some

  5. Spatial Distibution of Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks in Relation to Climate and Stand Characteristics:A Dendroecological Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Elizabeth M. Campbell; René I. Alfaro; Brad Hawkes

    2007-01-01

    Principal components analysis, followed by K-means cluster analysis, was used to detect variations in the timing and magnitude of Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. growth releases attributed to mountain pine beetle outbreaks in 31 stands of central British Columbia. Four major growth release patterns were identified from 1970 to 2000.Variations in the timing of growth releases among clustered stands corresponded well to aerial survey data indicating the timing of beetle outbreaks in the study area. Redundancy analysis was used to determine how variations in the timing and magnitude of growth releases attributed to beetle outbreaks changed with variations in climate or stand conditions over the study area. The first RDA axis, which accounted for 39% of the variations in growth patterns among stands, was significantly (P<0.05) correlated with gradients in the percentage of pine in stands killed by mountain pine beetle, summer aridity, variation in summer precipitation, distance from initial infestation site, average pine age, and maximum August temperatures. The second RDA axis explained 6% of the variations and was significantly correlated with gradients in the beetle climate suitability index, extreme cold month temperatures, and site index. Comparisons of growth release patterns with aerial survey data and redundancy analyses indicated that dendrochronological techniques are useful for identifying mountain pine beetle outbreaks in central British Columbia, particularly among stands that had a density high enough to produce a growth release signal. Provided future studies account for interannual weather fluctuations, identification of growth increases due to stand thinning caused by beetle outbreaks will be useful for reconstructing the history of beetle outbreaks over much longer time periods.

  6. Rift Valley fever outbreak, southern Mauritania, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sow, Abdourahmane; Faye, Ousmane; Ba, Yamar; Ba, Hampathé; Diallo, Diawo; Faye, Oumar; Loucoubar, Cheikh; Boushab, Mohamed; Barry, Yahya; Diallo, Mawlouth; Sall, Amadou Alpha

    2014-02-01

    After a period of heavy rainfall, an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurred in southern Mauritania during September-November 2012. A total of 41 human cases were confirmed, including 13 deaths, and 12 Rift Valley fever virus strains were isolated. Moudjeria and Temchecket Departments were the most affected areas.

  7. How Will Climate Change Impact Cholera Outbreaks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Rahimikolu, J.; Akanda, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Environmental parameters associated with cholera are well documented. However, cholera continues to be a global public health threat. Uncertainty in defining environmental processes affecting growth and multiplication of the cholera bacteria can be affected significantly by changing climate at different temporal and spatial scales, either through amplification of the hydroclimatic cycle or by enhanced variability of large scale geophysical processes. Endemic cholera in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia has a unique pattern of two seasonal peaks and there are associated with asymmetric and episodic variability in river discharge. The first cholera outbreak in spring is related with intrusion of bacteria laden coastal seawater during low river discharge. Cholera occurring during the fall season is hypothesized to be associated with high river discharge related to a cross-contamination of water resources and, therefore, a second wave of disease, a phenomenon characteristic primarily in the inland regions. Because of difficulties in establishing linkage between coarse resolutions of the Global Climate Model (GCM) output and localized disease outbreaks, the impact of climate change on diarrheal disease has not been explored. Here using the downscaling method of Support Vector Machines from HADCM3 and ECHAM models, we show how cholera outbreak patterns are changing in the Bengal Delta. Our preliminary results indicate statistically significant changes in both seasonality and magnitude in the occurrence of cholera over the next century. Endemic cholera is likely to transform into epidemic forms and new geographical areas will be at risk for cholera outbreaks.

  8. [First ciguatera outbreak in Germany in 2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedemann, Miriam

    2016-12-01

    In November 2012, 23 cases of ciguatera with typical combinations of gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms occurred in Germany after consumption of imported tropical fish (Lutjanus spp.). A questionnaire was used to gather information on the disease course and fish consumption. All patients suffered from pathognomonic cold allodynia. Aside from two severe courses of illness, all other cases showed symptoms of moderate intensity. During a three-year follow-up, seven patients reported prolonged paresthesia for more than one year. Two of them reported further neuropathies over almost three years. This is the first time that long-term persistence of symptoms has been documented in detail. Outbreak cases were allocated to eight clusters in seven German cities. A further cluster was prevented by the successful recall of ciguatoxic fish. Three clusters were confirmed by the detection of ciguatoxin in samples of suspicious and recalled fish. An extrapolation on the basis of ciguatoxic samples revealed twenty prevented cases of ciguatera. Further officially unknown cases should be assumed. During the outbreak investigations, inadvertently falsely labelled fish species and fishing capture areas on import and retail level documents were observed. The ascertainment of cases and the outbreak investigations proved to be difficult due to inconsistent case reports to poisons centers, local health and veterinary authorities. In Germany, many physicians are unaware of the disease pattern of ciguatera and the risks caused by tropical fish. The occurrence of further outbreaks during the following years emphasizes the increasing significance of ciguatera in Germany.

  9. Imported Measles Outbreak in a University.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narain, Jai P.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    In 1981, a measles outbreak in an Arkansas university involved 16 students and 4 others. The first two cases were in students who had recently returned from Honduras. Only two of the students were considered adequately immunized. A voluntary immunization clinic held on campus resulted in 67 percent of 3,076 students being vaccinated. (Author/KH)

  10. Quantifying reporting timeliness to improve outbreak control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonačić Marinović, Axel; Swaan, Corien; van Steenbergen, Jim; Kretzschmar, MEE

    2015-01-01

    The extent to which reporting delays should be reduced to gain substantial improvement in outbreak control is unclear. We developed a model to quantitatively assess reporting timeliness. Using reporting speed data for 6 infectious diseases in the notification system in the Netherlands, we calculated

  11. First Outbreak of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Rahman, Mahbubur; Rahman, Khalilur; Siddque, A. K.; Shoma, Shereen; A. H. M. Kamal; Ali, K.S.; Nisaluk, Ananda; Breiman, Robert F

    2002-01-01

    During the first countrywide outbreak of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bangladesh, we conducted surveillance for dengue at a hospital in Dhaka. Of 176 patients, primarily adults, found positive for dengue, 60.2% had dengue fever, 39.2% dengue hemorrhagic fever, and 0.6% dengue shock syndrome. The Dengue virus 3 serotype was detected in eight patients.

  12. Canine distemper outbreak in rhesus monkeys, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhang, Shoufeng; Fan, Quanshui; Liu, Hua; Zhang, Fuqiang; Wang, Wei; Liao, Guoyang; Hu, Rongliang

    2011-08-01

    Since 2006, canine distemper outbreaks have occurred in rhesus monkeys at a breeding farm in Guangxi, People's Republic of China. Approximately 10,000 animals were infected (25%-60% disease incidence); 5%-30% of infected animals died. The epidemic was controlled by vaccination. Amino acid sequence analysis of the virus indicated a unique strain.

  13. E. Coli: Preventing Outbreaks at Camp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Mary D.

    1996-01-01

    One strain of E. coli is not usually found in foods, but has been related to consumption of undercooked ground beef. Symptoms are stomach cramps and diarrhea, and 2-7% of infections lead to hemolytic uremic syndrome, which is life threatening. Camps can prevent outbreaks by avoiding uncooked meat on overnight campouts and requiring appropriate…

  14. Diphtheria outbreak in Norway: lessons learned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Inge; Wallace, Sean; Mengshoel, Anne Torunn; Høiby, E Arne; Brandtzæg, Petter

    2011-12-01

    We describe an outbreak of diphtheria in Norway that occurred in 2008 and affected 3 unvaccinated family members. The epidemic caught the public health system off-guard on most levels; the diagnosis was distrusted due to its rarity, no diphtheria anti-toxin was available, and notification procedures were not rigorously followed.

  15. Lessons in Outbreak a Consumer perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, A.R.H.

    2008-01-01

    Lessons in Outbreak a Consumer perspective. Arnout Fischer Consumer risk perceptions is not necessarily the same as an economic weighing of risks and benefits. Consumers tend to be risk averse, tend to estimate catastrophic, unnatural or involuntary risks as larger, while personal lifestyle risks te

  16. Nosocomial outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Pernille; Lundgren, Jens Dilling; Kjaeldgaard, P;

    1991-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To describe a nosocomial outbreak of cryptosporidiosis during four months after June 1989. SETTING--A department of infectious diseases in Copenhagen, seeing about half the patients with AIDS in Denmark. SUBJECTS--73 HIV antibody negative subjects and 60 antibody positive subjects...

  17. An outbreak of Plesimonus Shigelloides in Zebrafish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plesiomonas shigelloides is a flagellated, gram-negative rod that is an emergent pathogen associated with human gastroenteritis. Recently, we experienced a disease outbreak in zebrafish that were obtained from a commercial source. Fourteen days after being held at 27°C in our flow-through quarantine...

  18. Cholera outbreak--southern Sudan, 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-10

    Vibrio cholerae causes cholera, an acute infectious diarrheal disease that can result in death without appropriate therapy, depending on the severity of the disease. War, poverty, inadequate sanitation, and large numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) are major precursors to cholera outbreaks. In 2005, Southern Sudan ended its 22-year civil war with North Sudan; as a result, IDPs and refugees are returning to the south. During April--June 2007, investigators from the Southern Sudan Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program (SS-FELTP) and CDC investigated a cholera outbreak in the town of Juba, Southern Sudan. This report summarizes the results of that investigation, which found that 3,157 persons were diagnosed with suspected cholera during January--June 2007, with 74 deaths resulting from the disease. An environmental investigation revealed suboptimal hygiene practices and a lack of water and sanitation infrastructure in Juba. A case-control study indicated that persons less likely to have cholera were more likely to have consumed hot meals containing meat during the outbreak. Contaminated food or water were not identified as possible sources of the cholera outbreak in Juba. However, this might be attributed to limitations of the study, including small sample size. Cholera can reach epidemic proportions if adequate control measures are not implemented early. Mass media campaigns are important for current and new residents in Juba to understand the importance of proper food handling, clean water, and optimal hygiene practices to prevent the spread of cholera.

  19. Eco-Evolutionary Theory and Insect Outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Páez, David J; Dukic, Vanja; Dushoff, Jonathan; Fleming-Davies, Arietta; Dwyer, Greg

    2017-06-01

    Eco-evolutionary theory argues that population cycles in consumer-resource interactions are partly driven by natural selection, such that changes in densities and changes in trait values are mutually reinforcing. Evidence that the theory explains cycles in nature, however, is almost nonexistent. Experimental tests of model assumptions are logistically impractical for most organisms, while for others, evidence that population cycles occur in nature is lacking. For insect baculoviruses in contrast, tests of model assumptions are straightforward, and there is strong evidence that baculoviruses help drive population cycles in many insects, including the gypsy moth that we study here. We therefore used field experiments with the gypsy moth baculovirus to test two key assumptions of eco-evolutionary models of host-pathogen population cycles: that reduced host infection risk is heritable and that it is costly. Our experiments confirm both assumptions, and inserting parameters estimated from our data into eco-evolutionary insect-outbreak models gives cycles closely resembling gypsy moth outbreak cycles in North America, whereas standard models predict unrealistic stable equilibria. Our work shows that eco-evolutionary models are useful for explaining outbreaks of forest insect defoliators, while widespread observations of intense selection on defoliators in nature and of heritable and costly resistance in defoliators in the lab together suggest that eco-evolutionary dynamics may play a general role in defoliator outbreaks.

  20. E. Coli: Preventing Outbreaks at Camp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Mary D.

    1996-01-01

    One strain of E. coli is not usually found in foods, but has been related to consumption of undercooked ground beef. Symptoms are stomach cramps and diarrhea, and 2-7% of infections lead to hemolytic uremic syndrome, which is life threatening. Camps can prevent outbreaks by avoiding uncooked meat on overnight campouts and requiring appropriate…

  1. October 2012 Multistate Fungal Meningitis Outbreak

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-10-17

    This podcast gives an overview of the October 2012 multistate fungal meningitis outbreak, including symptoms to watch for and a website for up-to-date information.  Created: 10/17/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 10/17/2012.

  2. Nosocomial outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Pernille; Lundgren, Jens Dilling; Kjaeldgaard, P

    1991-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To describe a nosocomial outbreak of cryptosporidiosis during four months after June 1989. SETTING--A department of infectious diseases in Copenhagen, seeing about half the patients with AIDS in Denmark. SUBJECTS--73 HIV antibody negative subjects and 60 antibody positive subjects...

  3. Pneumonia outbreaks in calves and finishers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-19

    Pneumonia in calves and finishers. Ovarian tumour in a calf . Abortion associated with bovine herpesvirus 1 in a suckler herd. Parasitic gastroenteritis causing illthrift and death in sheep. Outbreaks of acute fasciolosis in sheep. These are among matters discussed in the disease surveillance report for December 2015 from SAC Consulting: Veterinary Services (SAC C VS). British Veterinary Association.

  4. Nanopore Sequencing as a Rapidly Deployable Ebola Outbreak Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoenen, Thomas; Groseth, Allison; Rosenke, Kyle; Fischer, Robert J; Hoenen, Andreas; Judson, Seth D; Martellaro, Cynthia; Falzarano, Darryl; Marzi, Andrea; Squires, R Burke; Wollenberg, Kurt R; de Wit, Emmie; Prescott, Joseph; Safronetz, David; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Bushmaker, Trenton; Feldmann, Friederike; McNally, Kristin; Bolay, Fatorma K; Fields, Barry; Sealy, Tara; Rayfield, Mark; Nichol, Stuart T; Zoon, Kathryn C; Massaquoi, Moses; Munster, Vincent J; Feldmann, Heinz

    2016-02-01

    Rapid sequencing of RNA/DNA from pathogen samples obtained during disease outbreaks provides critical scientific and public health information. However, challenges exist for exporting samples to laboratories or establishing conventional sequencers in remote outbreak regions. We successfully used a novel, pocket-sized nanopore sequencer at a field diagnostic laboratory in Liberia during the current Ebola virus outbreak.

  5. A Methanol Intoxication Outbreak From Recreational Ingestion of Fracking Fluid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collister, David; Duff, Graham; Palatnick, Wesley; Komenda, Paul; Tangri, Navdeep; Hingwala, Jay

    2017-01-19

    Single-patient methanol intoxications are a common clinical presentation, but outbreaks are rare and usually occur in settings in which there is limited access to ethanol and methanol is consumed as a substitute. In this case report, we describe an outbreak of methanol intoxications that was challenging from a public health perspective and discuss strategies for managing such an outbreak.

  6. Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome outbreak, Brazil, December 2009-January 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terças, Ana Cláudia Pereira; Atanaka dos Santos, Marina; Pignatti, Marta Gislene; Espinosa, Mariano Martinez; Via, Alba Valéria Gomes de Melo; Menegatti, Jaqueline Aparecida

    2013-11-01

    An outbreak of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome occurred in the Sobradinho Indian settlement of the Kayabí ethnic group in northern Mato Grosso during December 2009-January 2010. We conducted a retrospective study to clarify the outbreak's epidemiologic and clinical characteristics. Results suggest a relationship between the outbreak and deforestation and farming expansion in indigenous areas.

  7. Two Linked Enteroinvasive Escherichia coli Outbreaks, Nottingham, UK, June 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor, Vanessa; Robbins, Vivienne; Bayliss, Laura; Chattaway, Marie Anne; Dallman, Tim; Ready, Derren; Aird, Heather; Puleston, Richard; Hawker, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    Enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) outbreaks are uncommon in Europe. In June 2014, two EIEC outbreaks occurred in Nottingham, UK, within 2 days; outbreak A was linked to a takeaway restaurant and outbreak B to a wedding party. We conducted 2 analytical studies: a case–control study for outbreak A and a cohort study for outbreak B. We tested microbiological and environmental samples, including by using whole-genome sequencing. For both outbreaks combined, we identified 157 probable case-patients; 27 were laboratory-confirmed as EIEC O96:H19–positive. Combined epidemiologic, microbiological, and environmental findings implicated lettuce as the vehicle of infection in outbreak A, but the source of the organism remained unknown. Whole-genome sequencing identified the same organism in cases from both outbreaks, but no epidemiologic link was confirmed. These outbreaks highlight that EIEC has the capacity to cause large and severe gastrointestinal disease outbreaks and should be considered as a potential pathogen in foodborne outbreaks in Europe. PMID:27314432

  8. Fire Danger and Fire Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (formerly Weather Bureau) and Forest Service developed a program to track meteorological conditions conducive to forest fires, resulting...

  9. SIGWX Charts - High Level Significant Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — High level significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts are provided for the en-route portion of international flights. NOAA's National Weather Service Aviation Center...

  10. Integrating Sphere-based Weathering Device

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:In the artificial ultraviolet (UV) weathering of materials, a need exists for weathering devices that can uniformly illuminate test specimens with a high...

  11. NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit is an application that provides simple visualization and data export of weather and climatological data archived at NCDC. The...

  12. Newspaper Clippings and Articles (Weather-related)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather-related newspaper articles and photos, almost exclusively from Baltimore, MD and nearby areas. Includes storm damage, rainfall reports, and weather's affect...

  13. Rainmakers: why bad weather means good productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jooa Julia; Gino, Francesca; Staats, Bradley R

    2014-05-01

    People believe that weather conditions influence their everyday work life, but to date, little is known about how weather affects individual productivity. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we predict and find that bad weather increases individual productivity and that it does so by eliminating potential cognitive distractions resulting from good weather. When the weather is bad, individuals appear to focus more on their work than on alternate outdoor activities. We investigate the proposed relationship between worse weather and higher productivity through 4 studies: (a) field data on employees' productivity from a bank in Japan, (b) 2 studies from an online labor market in the United States, and (c) a laboratory experiment. Our findings suggest that worker productivity is higher on bad-, rather than good-, weather days and that cognitive distractions associated with good weather may explain the relationship. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of our research.

  14. National Weather Service County Warning Area Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains polygons corresponding to the County Warning Areas (CWAs) of each Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in the National Weather Service (NWS).

  15. National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

    Science.gov (United States)

    weather.gov Site Map News Organization Search for: SPC NCEP All NOAA Search by city or zip ... Fire Wx Outlooks RSS Feeds E-Mail Alerts Weather Information Storm Reports Storm Reports Dev. NWS Hazards ...

  16. Adaptive Weather Forecasting using Local Meteorological Information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    In general, meteorological parameters such as temperature, rain and global radiation are important for agricultural systems. Anticipating on future conditions is most often needed in these systems. Weather forecasts then become of substantial importance. As weather forecasts are subject to

  17. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives ñ especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes ñ financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

  18. World War II Weather Record Transmittances

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World War II Weather Record Transmittances are a record of the weather and meteorological data observed during World War II and transferred to the archive. It...

  19. Titanic Weather Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-04-01

    New Detailed VLT Images of Saturn's Largest Moon Optimizing space missions Titan, the largest moon of Saturn was discovered by Dutch astronomer Christian Huygens in 1655 and certainly deserves its name. With a diameter of no less than 5,150 km, it is larger than Mercury and twice as large as Pluto. It is unique in having a hazy atmosphere of nitrogen, methane and oily hydrocarbons. Although it was explored in some detail by the NASA Voyager missions, many aspects of the atmosphere and surface still remain unknown. Thus, the existence of seasonal or diurnal phenomena, the presence of clouds, the surface composition and topography are still under debate. There have even been speculations that some kind of primitive life (now possibly extinct) may be found on Titan. Titan is the main target of the NASA/ESA Cassini/Huygens mission, launched in 1997 and scheduled to arrive at Saturn on July 1, 2004. The ESA Huygens probe is designed to enter the atmosphere of Titan, and to descend by parachute to the surface. Ground-based observations are essential to optimize the return of this space mission, because they will complement the information gained from space and add confidence to the interpretation of the data. Hence, the advent of the adaptive optics system NAOS-CONICA (NACO) [1] in combination with ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) at the Paranal Observatory in Chile now offers a unique opportunity to study the resolved disc of Titan with high sensitivity and increased spatial resolution. Adaptive Optics (AO) systems work by means of a computer-controlled deformable mirror that counteracts the image distortion induced by atmospheric turbulence. It is based on real-time optical corrections computed from image data obtained by a special camera at very high speed, many hundreds of times each second (see e.g. ESO Press Release 25/01 , ESO PR Photos 04a-c/02, ESO PR Photos 19a-c/02, ESO PR Photos 21a-c/02, ESO Press Release 17/02, and ESO Press Release 26/03 for earlier NACO

  20. Decision Making Models Using Weather Forecast Information

    OpenAIRE

    Hiramatsu, Akio; Huynh, Van-Nam; Nakamori, Yoshiteru

    2007-01-01

    The quality of weather forecast has gradually improved, but weather information such as precipitation forecast is still uncertainty. Meteorologists have studied the use and economic value of weather information, and users have to translate weather information into their most desirable action. To maximize the economic value of users, the decision maker should select the optimum course of action for his company or project, based on an appropriate decision strategy under uncertain situations. In...

  1. Human angiostrongyliasis outbreak in Dali, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shan Lv

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several angiostrongyliasis outbreaks have been reported in recent years but the disease continues to be neglected in public health circles. We describe an outbreak in Dali, southwest China in order to highlight some key problems for the control of this helminth infection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: All available medical records of suspected angiostrongyliasis patients visiting hospitals in Dali in the period 1 October 2007-31 March 2008 were reviewed, and tentative diagnoses of varying strengths were reached according to given sets of criteria. Snails collected from local markets, restaurants and natural habitats were also screened for the presence of Angiostrongylus cantonensis. A total of 33 patients met criteria for infection, and 11 among them were classified as clinically confirmed. An additional eight patients were identified through a surveillance system put in operation in response to the outbreak. The epidemic lasted for 8 months with its peak in February 2008. Of the 33 patients, 97.0% complained of severe headache. 84.8% patients had high eosinophil cell counts either in the peripheral blood or in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF. Three-quarters of the patients were treated with a combination of albendazole and corticosteroids, resulting in significantly improved overall conditions. Twenty-two patients reported the consumption of raw or undercooked snails prior to the onset of the symptoms, and approximately 1.0% of the Pomacea canaliculata snails on sale were found to be infected with A. cantonensis. The snails were also found in certain habitats around Dali but no parasites were detected in these populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The import and sale of infected P. canaliculata is the likely trigger for this angiostrongyliasis outbreak. Awareness of angiostrongyliasis must be raised, and standardized diagnosis and treatment are needed in order to provide clinicians with a guide to address this disease. Health education

  2. Space Weather Receives First "Impact Rating"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanzerotti, Louis J.

    2007-08-01

    Journal Citation Reports, published by Thomson Scientific (http://scientific.thomson.com/isi/), has issued its first impact factor for Space Weather. It is 1.610. I consider this number to be very good, strongly validating the impact that Space Weather has already made in its short life within the community of space weather professionals.

  3. Space Weather Effects on Range Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    www.windows2universe.org/space_weather/space_weather.html What are scientists talking about when they say “space weather”? How is it like weather on...particle events observed by ground level, high latitude neutron monitors and the Concorde observations are summarised in Table 1 (Refs. 12 & 13), which

  4. Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are cou

  5. 49 CFR 195.224 - Welding: Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Welding: Weather. 195.224 Section 195.224 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... PIPELINE Construction § 195.224 Welding: Weather. Welding must be protected from weather conditions...

  6. Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

  7. The Early Years: The Wonders of Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy

    2013-01-01

    This article reports on the wonders of winter weather, as it often inspires teachers' and students' interest in collecting weather data, especially if snow falls. Beginning weather data collection in preschool will introduce children to the concepts of making regular observations of natural phenomena, recording the observations (data),…

  8. Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are cou

  9. Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

  10. Simulator Of A "Weather" Cloud

    OpenAIRE

    Khramenkova, Ksenia; Hermant, Olivier; Pawlak, Renaud

    2012-01-01

    International audience; In this article a cloud simulator for the "weather" cloud is considered. The purpose of such a simulator is evaluating different cloud architectures and algorithms before implementation. The main idea is to analyze the performance beforehand, in order to avoid unsuitable algorithms being implemented in a real cloud. Two methods of request allocation policies to the nodes are considered. Their behavior in terms of interaction with nodes' cachememory is compared. Finally...

  11. Weather, Climate and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, T.

    2016-12-01

    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  12. The Weather and Climate Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansari, S.; Del Greco, S.; Hankins, B.

    2010-12-01

    The Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT) is free, platform independent software distributed from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The WCT allows the visualization and data export of weather and climate data, including Radar, Satellite and Model data. By leveraging the NetCDF for Java library and Common Data Model, the WCT is extremely scalable and capable of supporting many new datasets in the future. Gridded NetCDF files (regular and irregularly spaced, using Climate-Forecast (CF) conventions) are supported, along with many other formats including GRIB. The WCT provides tools for custom data overlays, Web Map Service (WMS) background maps, animations and basic filtering. The export of images and movies is provided in multiple formats. The WCT Data Export Wizard allows for data export in both vector polygon/point (Shapefile, Well-Known Text) and raster (GeoTIFF, ESRI Grid, VTK, Gridded NetCDF) formats. These data export features promote the interoperability of weather and climate information with various scientific communities and common software packages such as ArcGIS, Google Earth, MatLAB, GrADS and R. The WCT also supports an embedded, integrated Google Earth instance. The Google Earth Browser Plugin allows seamless visualization of data on a native 3-D Google Earth instance linked to the standard 2-D map. Level-II NEXRAD data for Hurricane Katrina GPCP (Global Precipitation Product), visualized in 2-D and internal Google Earth view.

  13. Positive lightning and severe weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, C.; Murphy, B.

    2003-04-01

    In recent years researchers have noticed that severe weather (tornados, hail and damaging winds) are closely related to the amount of positive lightning occurring in thunderstorms. On 4 July 1999, a severe derecho (wind storm) caused extensive damage to forested regions along the United States/Canada border, west of Lake Superior. There were 665,000 acres of forest destroyed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW) in Minnesota and Quetico Provincial Park in Canada, with approximately 12.5 million trees blown down. This storm resulted in additional severe weather before and after the occurrence of the derecho, with continuous cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurring for more than 34 hours during its path across North America. At the time of the derecho the percentage of positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning measured by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) was greater than 70% for more than three hours, with peak values reaching 97% positive CG lightning. Such high ratios of +CG are rare, and may be useful indicators for short-term forecasts of severe weather.

  14. Faster Detection of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks to Support Polio Eradication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Isobel M; Chenoweth, Paul; Okayasu, Hiro; Donnelly, Christl A; Aylward, R Bruce; Grassly, Nicholas C

    2016-03-01

    As the global eradication of poliomyelitis approaches the final stages, prompt detection of new outbreaks is critical to enable a fast and effective outbreak response. Surveillance relies on reporting of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases and laboratory confirmation through isolation of poliovirus from stool. However, delayed sample collection and testing can delay outbreak detection. We investigated whether weekly testing for clusters of AFP by location and time, using the Kulldorff scan statistic, could provide an early warning for outbreaks in 20 countries. A mixed-effects regression model was used to predict background rates of nonpolio AFP at the district level. In Tajikistan and Congo, testing for AFP clusters would have resulted in an outbreak warning 39 and 11 days, respectively, before official confirmation of large outbreaks. This method has relatively high specificity and could be integrated into the current polio information system to support rapid outbreak response activities.

  15. Operational Space Weather Activities in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Thomas; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terrance; Viereck, Rodney; Murtagh, William; Rutledge, Robert

    2016-07-01

    We review the current activities in the civil operational space weather forecasting enterprise of the United States. The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, working with partners in the Air Force as well as international operational forecast services to provide predictions, data, and products on a large variety of space weather phenomena and impacts. In October 2015, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and associated Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) that define how the nation will better forecast, mitigate, and respond to an extreme space weather event. The SWAP defines actions involving multiple federal agencies and mandates coordination and collaboration with academia, the private sector, and international bodies to, among other things, develop and sustain an operational space weather observing system; develop and deploy new models of space weather impacts to critical infrastructure systems; define new mechanisms for the transition of research models to operations and to ensure that the research community is supported for, and has access to, operational model upgrade paths; and to enhance fundamental understanding of space weather through support of research models and observations. The SWAP will guide significant aspects of space weather operational and research activities for the next decade, with opportunities to revisit the strategy in the coming years through the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council.

  16. Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program network. Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mihlmester, P.E.; Koehler, W.C. Jr.; Beyer, M.A. [Aspen Systems Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Applied Management Sciences Div.; Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Beschen, D.A. Jr. [Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Weatherization Assistance Programs

    1992-02-01

    The Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Network was designed to describe the national network of State and local agencies that provide WAP services to qualifying low-income households. The objective of this study was to profile the current WAP network. To achieve the objective, two national surveys were conducted: one survey collected data from 49 State WAP agencies (including the coterminous 48 States and the District of Columbia), and the second survey collected data from 920 (or 81 percent) of the local WAP agencies.

  17. An emm5 Group A Streptococcal Outbreak Among Workers in a Factory Manufacturing Telephone Accessories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mingliang; Wang, Wenqing; Tu, Lihong; Zheng, Yaxu; Pan, Hao; Wang, Gangyi; Chen, Yanxin; Zhang, Xi; Zhu, Linying; Chen, Jian; Chen, Min

    2017-01-01

    Ranked among the top10 infectious causes of death worldwide, group A Streptococcus (GAS) causes small- and large-scale outbreaks, depending on the trigger as transmission of a GAS strain or expansion of predominant clones. In China, GAS infections other than scarlet fever are not notifiable. In Shanghai, an epidemiological investigation was initiated after two successive severe pneumonia cases with one death in a digital factory, from where outbreaks are less widely reported. The investigation was performed using emm typing, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) typing, superantigen profiling, and genome analysis. This enabled characterization of relatedness among the outbreak isolates and identification of the mobile genetic elements present. Among 57 patients with respiratory symptoms investigated in the factory, emm5 GAS strains were isolated from 8 patients. The eight GAS infection cases comprising one fatal severe pneumonia case, six influenza-like illness cases, and one pharyngitis case. Two risk factors were identified: adult with an age of 18-20 years and close contact with a GAS patient or carrier. GAS attack rate was 14.0% (8/57), and GAS carriage rate was probably around 2.7% (14/521) based on surveys in two nearby districts. All the 10 outbreak associated isolates were assigned to emm5 and sequence type ST-99 (emm5/ST-99), harbored superantigen genes speC, speG, and smeZ, and were assigned to two similar PFGE patterns (clones). Among the outbreak associated isolates, all carried ermA with resistance to erythromycin and inducible resistance to clindamycin, and eight (80%) carried a tetM gene with resistance to tetracycline. Among the 14 carriage isolates, 12 were emm12/ST-36, and 2 were emm1/ST-28, all with superantigen genes speC, speG, ssa, and smeZ. All the carriage isolates harbored ermB and tetM with resistance to erythromycin, clindamycin, and tetracycline. Genome analysis showed the two outbreak clones were closely related and possessed new

  18. A Short Overview of Ebola Outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masumeh Saeidi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available   Ebola virus disease (formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever is a severe, often fatal illness, with a death rate of up to 90%. The illness affects humans and nonhuman primates (monkeys, gorillas, and chimpanzees. Ebola first appeared in 1976 in two simultaneous outbreaks, one in a village near the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the other in a remote area of Sudan. The origin of the virus is unknown but fruit bats (Pteropodidae are considered the likely host of the Ebola virus, based on available evidence. In the current outbreak in West Africa, the majority of cases in humans have occurred as a result of human-to-human transmission. Infection occurs from direct contact through broken skin or mucous membranes with the blood, or other bodily fluids or secretions (stool, urine, saliva, semen of infected people.

  19. A Short Overview of Ebola Outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masumeh Saeidi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available   Ebola virus disease (formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever is a severe, often fatal illness, with a death rate of up to 90%. The illness affects humans and nonhuman primates (monkeys, gorillas, and chimpanzees. Ebola first appeared in 1976 in two simultaneous outbreaks, one in a village near the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the other in a remote area of Sudan. The origin of the virus is unknown but fruit bats (Pteropodidae are considered the likely host of the Ebola virus, based on available evidence. In the current outbreak in West Africa, the majority of cases in humans have occurred as a result of human-to-human transmission. Infection occurs from direct contact through broken skin or mucous membranes with the blood, or other bodily fluids or secretions (stool, urine, saliva, semen of infected people.

  20. Severe Dengue Fever Outbreak in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Sheng-Fan; Wang, Wen-Hung; Chang, Ko; Chen, Yen-Hsu; Tseng, Sung-Pin; Yen, Chia-Hung; Wu, Deng-Chyang; Chen, Yi-Ming Arthur

    2016-01-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a vector-borne disease caused by dengue viruses (DENVs). Epidemic dengue occurs intermittently in Taiwan. In 2014, Taiwan experienced its largest DF outbreak. There were 15,732 DF cases reported. There were a total of 136 dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, of which 20 resulted in death. Most DF cases were reported in southern Taiwan. A total of 15,043 (96%) cases were from Kaohsiung, a modern city in southern Taiwan. This report reviews DF epidemics in Taiwan during 2005–2014. The correlation between DF and DHF along with temperature and precipitation were conjointly examined. We conclude that most dengue epidemics in Taiwan resulted from imported DF cases. Results indicate three main factors that may have been associated with this DF outbreak in Kaohsiung: an underground pipeline explosion combined with subsequent rainfall and higher temperature. These factors may have enhanced mosquito breeding activity, facilitating DENV transmission. PMID:26572871

  1. Quasi-neutral theory of epidemic outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar A Pinto

    Full Text Available Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scale-free or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for "accidental pathogens" which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way.

  2. Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Oscar A.; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2011-01-01

    Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scale-free or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for “accidental pathogens” which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way. PMID:21760930

  3. Rock-weathering by lichens in Antarctic:patterns and mechanisms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Saxicolous species of lichens are able to induce and accelerate weathering of their rocksubstrate, and effects of lichens on substrate can be attributed to both physical and chemical causes.This paper is focused on biotic weathering actions of epilithic and endolithic species on the differentrock types (sandstones and volcanogenic rocks) in Antarctica. The patterns, mechanisms, processes andneoformations of rock-weathering resulting from lichen colonization are expounded in detail.Furthermore, it is pointed out that, for a better understanding of the impacts of lichens onenvironments, the studies on the rate of biotic weathering and the comprehensive involvement of thelichen effects on weathering of natural rocks remain to be carried out in Antarctica.

  4. The impact of weather conditions on Culex pipiens and Culex restuans (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance: a case study in Peel Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiafeng; Ogden, Nick H; Zhu, Huaiping

    2011-03-01

    Mosquito populations are sensitive to long-term variations in climate and short-term variations in weather. Mosquito abundance is a key determinant of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases, such as West Nile virus (WNV). In this work, the short-term impact of weather conditions (temperature and precipitation) on Culex pipiens L.-Culex restuans Theobald mosquito abundance in Peel Region, Ontario, Canada, was investigated using the 2002-2009 mosquito data collected from the WNV surveillance program managed by Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care and a gamma-generalized linear model. There was a clear association between weather conditions (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito abundance, which allowed the definition of threshold criteria for temperature and precipitation conditions for mosquito population growth. A predictive statistical model for mosquito population based on weather conditions was calibrated using real weather and mosquito surveillance data, and validated using a subset of surveillance data. Results showed that WNV vector abundance on any one day could be predicted with reasonable accuracy from relationships with mean degree-days >9 degrees C over the 11 preceding days, and precipitation 35 d previously. This finding provides optimism for the development of weather-generated forecasting for WNV risk that could be used in decision support systems for interventions such as mosquito control.

  5. Cooler temperatures inductive to locust outbreaks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    @@ A joint study by Prof. ZHANG Zhibin from the CAS Institute of Zoology and his co-workers from Norway, US and Swiss have indicated that historical outbreaks of migratory locusts in China were associated with cold spells, suggesting that China's projected climate warming could decrease the pest's numbers. The study was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on 17 September, 2007.

  6. A dynamical model for bark beetle outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Křivan, Vlastimil; Lewis, Mark; Bentz, Barbara J; Bewick, Sharon; Lenhart, Suzanne M; Liebhold, Andrew

    2016-10-21

    Tree-killing bark beetles are major disturbance agents affecting coniferous forest ecosystems. The role of environmental conditions on driving beetle outbreaks is becoming increasingly important as global climatic change alters environmental factors, such as drought stress, that, in turn, govern tree resistance. Furthermore, dynamics between beetles and trees are highly nonlinear, due to complex aggregation behaviors exhibited by beetles attacking trees. Models have a role to play in helping unravel the effects of variable tree resistance and beetle aggregation on bark beetle outbreaks. In this article we develop a new mathematical model for bark beetle outbreaks using an analogy with epidemiological models. Because the model operates on several distinct time scales, singular perturbation methods are used to simplify the model. The result is a dynamical system that tracks populations of uninfested and infested trees. A limiting case of the model is a discontinuous function of state variables, leading to solutions in the Filippov sense. The model assumes an extensive seed-bank so that tree recruitment is possible even if trees go extinct. Two scenarios are considered for immigration of new beetles. The first is a single tree stand with beetles immigrating from outside while the second considers two forest stands with beetle dispersal between them. For the seed-bank driven recruitment rate, when beetle immigration is low, the forest stand recovers to a beetle-free state. At high beetle immigration rates beetle populations approach an endemic equilibrium state. At intermediate immigration rates, the model predicts bistability as the forest can be in either of the two equilibrium states: a healthy forest, or a forest with an endemic beetle population. The model bistability leads to hysteresis. Interactions between two stands show how a less resistant stand of trees may provide an initial toe-hold for the invasion, which later leads to a regional beetle outbreak in the

  7. Avalanche outbreaks emerging in cooperative contagions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Weiran; Chen, Li; Ghanbarnejad, Fakhteh; Grassberger, Peter

    2015-11-01

    The spreading of contagions can exhibit a percolation transition, which separates transitory prevalence from outbreaks that reach a finite fraction of the population. Such transitions are commonly believed to be continuous, but empirical studies have shown more violent spreading modes when the participating agents are not limited to one type. Striking examples include the co-epidemic of the Spanish flu and pneumonia that occurred in 1918 (refs , ), and, more recently, the concurrent prevalence of HIV/AIDS and a host of diseases. It remains unclear to what extent an outbreak in the presence of interacting pathogens differs from that due to an ordinary single-agent process. Here we study a mechanistic model for understanding contagion processes involving inter-agent cooperation. Our stochastic simulations reveal the possible emergence of a massive avalanche-like outbreak right at the threshold, which is manifested as a discontinuous phase transition. Such an abrupt change arises only if the underlying network topology supports a bottleneck for cascaded mutual infections. Surprisingly, all these discontinuous transitions are accompanied by non-trivial critical behaviours, presenting a rare case of hybrid transition. The findings may imply the origin of catastrophic occurrences in many realistic systems, from co-epidemics to financial contagions.

  8. Outbreak of Enterovirus - 71 Meningitis in Calicut

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CK Sasidharan

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Enterovirus 71(EV 71 causes wide spectrum of infections ranging from asymptomatic conditions to clinical syndromes like diarrhea, rash, hand-foot-and mouth disease (HFMD, herpangina, aseptic meningitis, encephalitis, myocarditis, acute flaccid paralysis, bulbar and brainstem encephalitis Guillain Barre syndrome, pulmonary haemorrhage. This study deals with an outbreak of aseptic meningitis in children caused by EV 71 virus. Methods: The authors report an outbreak of aseptic meningitis in children in and around Calicut in June 2008. Clinical and laboratory study was done in collaboration with National Centre for Disease Control, New Delhi. 149 children with aseptic meningitis were studied and followed up from June 2008 to May 2009. Result: All children had clinical features suggestive of aseptic meningitis and serology showed the rising antibody titre against EV 71 virus infection. CSF analysis also showed four fold rise in antibodies in one and ≥ 1:2 neutralising antibodies titer against EV- 71 in four samples indicating meningitis due to EV-71. Conclusion: EV 71 was identified as the causative agent of the outbreak of aseptic meningitis in the study and the fact that the EV 71 infection has evolved from minor illness like HFMD to major illness like aseptic meningitis from the same locality is truly alarming.

  9. Foodborne outbreak of group G streptococcal pharyngitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stryker, W S; Fraser, D W; Facklam, R R

    1982-09-01

    An outbreak of pharyngitis associated with beta-hemolytic streptococci of Lancefield group G occurred among persons who had attended a convention that was held June 21-24, 1979, in a Florida hotel. Seventy-two (31 per cent) of 231 interviewed conventioneers were ill. Group G streptococci were isolated from the throats of 10 (63 per cent) of 16 persons with pharyngitis and 1 (2 per cent) of 41 persons without pharyngitis (p less than 10(-5)). Antistreptolysin O titers in convalescent-phase serum samples from persons with pharyngitis were significantly higher than those from age-matched controls. Fifty-seven (51 per cent) of 111 conventioneers who had attended a convention luncheon developed pharyngitis compared with 12 (10 per cent) of 117 persons who did not (p less than 10(-9)). All persons who had attended the luncheon and had become ill had eaten a chicken salad served at the luncheon. Their median incubation period was two days. The cook who had prepared this chicken salad developed pharyngitis after the luncheon and had a throat culture positive for group G streptococci. No instances of rheumatic fever were identified and secondary illness in household contracts was rare. This outbreak indicates that group G streptococci can cause outbreaks of pharyngitis similar to those caused by group A streptococci and suggests that penicillin therapy and prophylaxis may not be needed.

  10. Environmental Variation Generates Environmental Opportunist Pathogen Outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila, Jani; Kaitala, Veijo; Laakso, Jouni; Ruokolainen, Lasse

    2015-01-01

    Many socio-economically important pathogens persist and grow in the outside host environment and opportunistically invade host individuals. The environmental growth and opportunistic nature of these pathogens has received only little attention in epidemiology. Environmental reservoirs are, however, an important source of novel diseases. Thus, attempts to control these diseases require different approaches than in traditional epidemiology focusing on obligatory parasites. Conditions in the outside-host environment are prone to fluctuate over time. This variation is a potentially important driver of epidemiological dynamics and affect the evolution of novel diseases. Using a modelling approach combining the traditional SIRS models to environmental opportunist pathogens and environmental variability, we show that epidemiological dynamics of opportunist diseases are profoundly driven by the quality of environmental variability, such as the long-term predictability and magnitude of fluctuations. When comparing periodic and stochastic environmental factors, for a given variance, stochastic variation is more likely to cause outbreaks than periodic variation. This is due to the extreme values being further away from the mean. Moreover, the effects of variability depend on the underlying biology of the epidemiological system, and which part of the system is being affected. Variation in host susceptibility leads to more severe pathogen outbreaks than variation in pathogen growth rate in the environment. Positive correlation in variation on both targets can cancel the effect of variation altogether. Moreover, the severity of outbreaks is significantly reduced by increase in the duration of immunity. Uncovering these issues helps in understanding and controlling diseases caused by environmental pathogens.

  11. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  12. Evolution of Oxidative Continental Weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konhauser, Kurt; Lalonde, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    The Great Oxidation Event (GOE) is currently viewed as a protracted process during which atmospheric oxygen levels increased above 10-5 times the present atmospheric level. This value is based on the loss of sulphur isotope mass independent fractionation (S-MIF) from the rock record, beginning at 2.45 Ga and disappearing by 2.32 Ga. However, a number of recent papers have pushed back the timing for oxidative continental weathering, and by extension, the onset of atmospheric oxygenation several hundreds of million years earlier despite the presence of S-MIF (e.g., Crowe et al., 2013). This apparent discrepancy can, in part, be resolved by the suggestion that recycling of older sedimentary sulphur bearing S-MIF might have led to this signal's persistence in the rock record for some time after atmospheric oxygenation (Reinhard et al., 2013). Here we suggest another possibility, that the earliest oxidative weathering reactions occurred in environments at profound redox disequilibrium with the atmosphere, such as biological soil crusts, riverbed and estuarine sediments, and lacustrine microbial mats. We calculate that the rate of O2 production via oxygenic photosynthesis in these terrestrial microbial ecosystems provides largely sufficient oxidizing potential to mobilise sulphate and a number of redox-sensitive trace metals from land to the oceans while the atmosphere itself remained anoxic with its attendant S-MIF signature. These findings reconcile geochemical signatures in the rock record for the earliest oxidative continental weathering with the history of atmospheric sulphur chemistry, and demonstrate the plausible antiquity of a terrestrial biosphere populated by cyanobacteria. Crowe, S.A., Dossing, L.N., Beukes, N.J., Bau, M., Kruger, S.J., Frei, R. & Canfield, D.E. Atmospheric oxygenation three billion years ago. Nature 501, 535-539 (2013). Reinhard, C.T., Planavsky, N.J. & Lyons, T.W. Long-term sedimentary recycling of rare sulphur isotope anomalies. Nature 497

  13. Insurance adaptation to extreme weather

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wakeford, C. [Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    This paper examined the role of climate change as a catalyst for specific changes in insurance practices. The presentation addressed how insurance companies are adapting behaviours in response to increasing climate variability and growth in severe weather damage. It discussed ancient examples of insurance as well as more modern insurance practices. Statistics on the number of disasters, global natural disaster economic and insured losses and infrastructure spending are presented. Internal adaptation such as prospective underwriting and incentives and external adaptation such as working with governments and organizations and individuals were also discussed. It was concluded that directions for the future include continued research, heightened awareness and more resilient communities. 3 tabs.

  14. Epidemiology of foodborne Norovirus outbreaks in Catalonia, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Godoy Pere

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Noroviruses are one of the principal biological agents associated with the consumption of contaminated food. The objective of this study was to analyse the size and epidemiological characteristics of foodborne outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Catalonia, a region in the northeast of Spain. Methods In all reported outbreaks of gastroenteritis associated with food consumption, faecal samples of persons affected were analysed for bacteria and viruses and selectively for parasites. Study variables included the setting, the number of people exposed, age, sex, clinical signs and hospital admissions. The study was carried out from October 2004 to October 2005. Results Of the 181 outbreaks reported during the study period, 72 were caused by Salmonella and 30 by norovirus (NoV; the incidence rates were 14.5 and 9.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. In 50% of the NoV outbreaks and 27% of the bacterial outbreaks (p = 0.03 the number of persons affected was ≥10; 66.7% of NoV outbreaks occurred in restaurants; no differences in the attack rates were observed according to the etiology. Hospitalizations were more common (p = 0.03 in bacterial outbreaks (8.6% than in NoV outbreaks (0.15%. Secondary cases accounted for 4% of cases in NoV outbreaks compared with 0.3% of cases in bacterial outbreaks (p Conclusion Norovirus outbreaks were larger but less frequent than bacterial outbreaks, suggesting that underreporting is greater for NoV outbreaks. Food handlers should receive training on the transmission of infections in diverse situations. Very strict control measures on handwashing and environmental disinfection should be adopted in closed or partially-closed institutions.

  15. Weathering of ordinary chondrites from Oman: Correlation of weathering parameters with 14C terrestrial ages and a refined weathering scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurfluh, Florian J.; Hofmann, Beda A.; Gnos, Edwin; Eggenberger, Urs; Jull, A. J. Timothy

    2016-09-01

    We have investigated 128 14C-dated ordinary chondrites from Oman for macroscopically visible weathering parameters, for thin section-based weathering degrees, and for chemical weathering parameters as analyzed with handheld X-ray fluorescence. These 128 14C-dated meteorites show an abundance maximum of terrestrial age at 19.9 ka, with a mean of 21.0 ka and a pronounced lack of samples between 0 and 10 ka. The weathering degree is evaluated in thin section using a refined weathering scale based on the current W0 to W6 classification of Wlotzka (1993), with five newly included intermediate steps resulting in a total of nine (formerly six) steps. We find significant correlations between terrestrial ages and several macroscopic weathering parameters. The correlation of various chemical parameters including Sr and Ba with terrestrial age is not very pronounced. The microscopic weathering degree of metal and sulfides with newly added intermediate steps shows the best correlation with 14C terrestrial ages, demonstrating the significance of the newly defined weathering steps. We demonstrate that the observed 14C terrestrial age distribution can be modeled from the abundance of meteorites with different weathering degrees, allowing the evaluation of an age-frequency distribution for the whole meteorite population.

  16. Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rall, Jonathan A.R.; Abshire, James B.; Spinhirne, James D.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    An autonomous, low-power atmospheric lidar instrument is being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This compact, portable lidar will operate continuously in a temperature controlled enclosure, charge its own batteries through a combination of a small rugged wind generator and solar panels, and transmit its data from remote locations to ground stations via satellite. A network of these instruments will be established by co-locating them at remote Automatic Weather Station (AWS) sites in Antarctica under the auspices of the National Science Foundation (NSF). The NSF Office of Polar Programs provides support to place the weather stations in remote areas of Antarctica in support of meteorological research and operations. The AWS meteorological data will directly benefit the analysis of the lidar data while a network of ground based atmospheric lidar will provide knowledge regarding the temporal evolution and spatial extent of Type la polar stratospheric clouds (PSC). These clouds play a crucial role in the annual austral springtime destruction of stratospheric ozone over Antarctica, i.e. the ozone hole. In addition, the lidar will monitor and record the general atmospheric conditions (transmission and backscatter) of the overlying atmosphere which will benefit the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Prototype lidar instruments have been deployed to the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station (1995-96, 2000) and to an Automated Geophysical Observatory site (AGO 1) in January 1999. We report on data acquired with these instruments, instrument performance, and anticipated performance of the AWS Lidar.

  17. Space weather and space anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A large database of anomalies, registered by 220 satellites in different orbits over the period 1971-1994 has been compiled. For the first time, data from 49 Russian Kosmos satellites have been included in a statistical analysis. The database also contains a large set of daily and hourly space weather parameters. A series of statistical analyses made it possible to quantify, for different satellite orbits, space weather conditions on the days characterized by anomaly occurrences. In particular, very intense fluxes (>1000 pfu at energy >10 MeV of solar protons are linked to anomalies registered by satellites in high-altitude (>15000 km, near-polar (inclination >55° orbits typical for navigation satellites, such as those used in the GPS network, NAVSTAR, etc. (the rate of anomalies increases by a factor ~20, and to a much smaller extent to anomalies in geostationary orbits, (they increase by a factor ~4. Direct and indirect connections between anomaly occurrence and geomagnetic perturbations are also discussed.

  18. Weathering effects on the structure and reactivity of US coals: Final report, July 15, 1984-July 14, 1987. [Many data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meuzelaar, H.L.C.; Hill, G.R.; Yun, Yongseung; Jakab, E.; Windig, W.; Urban, D.; Yon, Kyung Yol; Oestreich, J.; East, J.

    1987-01-01

    This report covers the work performed from July 1984 to July 1987 under the project entitled ''Weathering Effects on Structure and Reactivity of US Coals'' (grant number FG22-84PC70798). The main objectives of the study were to investigate the structural changes in coal during the weathering process as well as to develop a simple, reliable weathering index, which can monitor indirectly the weathering-induced changes in physical and chemical properties. Although there have been numerous publications on structure and reactivity of coal, most data reported in the literature thus far have been obtained on coal samples of uncertain weathering status and therefore need to be interpreted with great caution. Weathering has a profound effect on many important coal properties such as heating value, caking characteristics, acidity, flotability and reactivity in liquefaction, combustion and gasification processes. The objective of developing a weathering index is to predict these coal property changes due to weathering without resorting to real-time measurements or pilot plant runs. This report is comprised of four main chapters: I. Structural Changes due to Weathering; II. Material Balance in Weathering Process; III. Development of a Reliable Weathering Index; and IV. Proposed Weathering Mechanisms. A battery of sophisticated analytical tools and techniques was employed during this study. Pyrolysis mass spectrometry in time-integrated, as well as in time-resolved modes with computer-aided data analysis techniques (such as factor and discriminant analysis), gas chromatography, thermogravimetry/mass spectrometry and solvent extraction were used for determining the role of oxygen during the weathering process. Pyrolysis mass spectrometry, Free Swelling Index and a novel slurry pH technique were employed as weathering indicators. 170 refs.

  19. Electronic Outbreak Surveillance in Germany: A First Evaluation for Nosocomial Norovirus Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauri, Anja M.; Westbrock, Hans-Jürgen; Claus, Herman; Geis, Steffen; Giernat, Siegfried; Forβbohm, Michael; Uphoff, Helmut

    2011-01-01

    Background In Germany, surveillance for infectious disease outbreaks is integrated into an electronic surveillance system. For 2007, the national surveillance database contains case-based information on 201,224 norovirus cases, three-quarters of which are linked to outbreaks. We evaluated the data quality of the national database in reflecting nosocomial norovirus outbreak (NNO) data available in 19 Hessian local public health authorities (LPHAs) and the influence of differences between LPHA's follow-up procedures for laboratory notifications of Norovirus positive stool samples on outbreak underascertainment. Methods Data on NNO beginning in 2007 and notified to the 19 LPHAs were extracted from the national database, investigated regarding internal validity and compared to data collected from LPHAs for a study on NNO control. LPHAs were questioned whether they routinely contacted all persons for whom a laboratory diagnosis of norovirus infection was notified. The number of outbreaks per 1,000 hospital beds and the number of cases within NNOs for acute care and rehabilitation hospitals were compared between counties with and without complete follow-up. Results The national database contained information on 155 NNOs, including 3,115 cases. Cases were missed in the national database in 58 (37%) of the outbreaks. Information on hospitalisation was incorrect for an estimated 47% of NNO cases. Information on county of infection was incorrect for 24% (199/820) of cases being forwarded between LPHAs for data entry. Reported NNO incidence and number of NNO cases in acute care hospitals was higher in counties with complete follow-up (incidence-rate ratio (IRR) 2.7, 95% CI 1.4–5.7, p-value 0.002 and IRR 2.1, 95% CI 1.9–2.4, p-value 0.001, respectively). Conclusions Many NNOs are not notified by hospitals and differences in LPHA procedures have an impact on the number of outbreaks captured in the surveillance system. Forwarding of case-by-case data on Norovirus outbreak

  20. Socio-epidemiological determinants of 2002 plague outbreak in Himachal Pradesh, India: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Sonu; Kaur, Harvinder; Gupta, Anil Kumar; Chauhan, Umesh; Singh, Amarjeet

    2014-04-08

    This qualitative investigation was conducted to determine the socio-epidemiological factors related to the plague outbreak (2002) in Himachal Pradesh (HP), India. The data for socio-epidemiological factors related to the plague outbreak (2002) in HP was obtained from residents through 150 in-depth Interviews (IDI) and 30 Focus Group Discussions (FGD) during six visits (from May 2011 to April 2012) by the research team. Natives, health officials and the nomadic population were interviewed. According to their opinion and viewpoints data was collected and their lifestyle and hunting practices were studied in detail. Tape recorders were used during various FGDs and IDIs. The interviews and FGDs were later transcribed and coded. In-depth analysis of the recorded data was done using an inductive thematic analysis approach. The study reports that the outbreak in 2002 in a few villages of Himachal Pradesh was that of plague and it occurred by the contact of an index case with wild animals after hunting and de-skinning. The first wave of plague transmission which took 16 lives of residents was followed by a second wave of transmission in a ward of a tertiary care hospital where one visitor acquired it from relatives of the index case and succumbed. The life-style practices of residents (hunting behavior, long stay in caves and jungles, overcrowding in houses, poor hygiene and sanitation, belief in 'God' and faith healers for cure of diseases) was optimal for the occurrence and rapid spread of such a communicable disease. The man-rodent contact is intensified due to the practice of hunting in such a rodent-ridden environment. The residents harbor a strong belief that plague occurs due to the wrath of gods. Various un-reported outbreaks of plague were also observed by officials, residents and old folk. The persistence of plague in HP is favoured by its hilly terrain, inaccessible areas, inclement weather (snow) in winters, unhygienic lifestyle, hunting practices of residents

  1. Prediction Techniques in Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhukov, Andrei

    2016-07-01

    The importance of forecasting space weather conditions is steadily increasing as our society is becoming more and more dependent on advanced technologies that may be affected by disturbed space weather. Operational space weather forecasting is still a difficult task that requires the real-time availability of input data and specific prediction techniques that are reviewed in this presentation, with an emphasis on solar and interplanetary weather. Key observations that are essential for operational space weather forecasting are listed. Predictions made on the base of empirical and statistical methods, as well as physical models, are described. Their validation, accuracy, and limitations are discussed in the context of operational forecasting. Several important problems in the scientific basis of predicting space weather are described, and possible ways to overcome them are discussed, including novel space-borne observations that could be available in future.

  2. Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

  3. Modeling wind fields and fire propagation following bark beetle outbreaks in spatially-heterogeneous pinyon-juniper woodland fuel complexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodman R. Linn; Carolyn H. Sieg; Chad M. Hoffman; Judith L. Winterkamp; Joel D. McMillin

    2013-01-01

    We used a physics-based model, HIGRAD/FIRETEC, to explore changes in within-stand wind behavior and fire propagation associated with three time periods in pinyon-juniper woodlands following a drought-induced bark beetle outbreak and subsequent tree mortality. Pinyon-juniper woodland fuel complexes are highly heterogeneous. Trees often are clumped, with sparse patches...

  4. Epidemiology of Histoplasmosis Outbreaks, United States, 1938-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedict, Kaitlin; Mody, Rajal K

    2016-03-01

    Histoplasmosis has been described as the most common endemic mycosis in the United States. However, histoplasmosis is not nationally notifiable. Its presumed geographic distribution is largely derived from skin test surveys performed during the 1940s, and information about its local features comes primarily from outbreak investigations. We conducted a literature review to assess epidemiologic features of histoplasmosis outbreaks in the United States. During 1938-2013, a total of 105 outbreaks involving 2,850 cases were reported in 26 states and the territory of Puerto Rico. Common exposure settings were chicken coops and buildings or other structures undergoing renovation or demolition. Birds, bats, or their droppings were reported to be present in 77% of outbreak settings, and workplace exposures were reported in 41% of outbreaks. The continued occurrence of histoplasmosis outbreaks, particularly work-related ones involving known disturbance of bird or bat droppings, highlights the need to increase awareness of the disease.

  5. Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES) in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY) and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

  6. Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Watari

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

  7. Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natuzzi, Eileen S; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

    2016-08-03

    Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development.

  8. Cholera outbreak in Senegal in 2005: was climate a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Constantin de Magny

    Full Text Available Cholera is an acute diarrheal illness caused by Vibrio cholerae and occurs as widespread epidemics in Africa. In 2005, there were 31,719 cholera cases, with 458 deaths in the Republic of Senegal. We retrospectively investigated the climate origin of the devastating floods in mid-August 2005, in the Dakar Region of Senegal and the subsequent outbreak of cholera along with the pattern of cholera outbreaks in three other regions of that country. We compared rainfall patterns between 2002 and 2005 and the relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and precipitation over Senegal for 2005. Results showed a specific pattern of rainfall throughout the Dakar region during August, 2005, and the associated rainfall anomaly coincided with an exacerbation of the cholera epidemic. Comparison of rainfall and epidemiological patterns revealed that the temporal dynamics of precipitation, which was abrupt and heavy, was presumably the determining factor. Analysis of the SST gradient showed that the Atlantic Ocean SST variability in 2005 differed from that of 2002 to 2004, a result of a prominent Atlantic meridional mode. The influence of this intense precipitation on cholera transmission over a densely populated and crowded region was detectable for both Dakar and Thiès, Senegal. Thus, high resolution rainfall forecasts at subseasonal time scales should provide a way forward for an early warning system in Africa for cholera and, thereby, trigger epidemic preparedness. Clearly, attention must be paid to both natural and human induced environmental factors to devise appropriate action to prevent cholera and other waterborne disease epidemics in the region.

  9. Cholera outbreak in Senegal in 2005: was climate a factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Magny, Guillaume Constantin; Thiaw, Wassila; Kumar, Vadlamani; Manga, Noël M; Diop, Bernard M; Gueye, Lamine; Kamara, Mamina; Roche, Benjamin; Murtugudde, Raghu; Colwell, Rita R

    2012-01-01

    Cholera is an acute diarrheal illness caused by Vibrio cholerae and occurs as widespread epidemics in Africa. In 2005, there were 31,719 cholera cases, with 458 deaths in the Republic of Senegal. We retrospectively investigated the climate origin of the devastating floods in mid-August 2005, in the Dakar Region of Senegal and the subsequent outbreak of cholera along with the pattern of cholera outbreaks in three other regions of that country. We compared rainfall patterns between 2002 and 2005 and the relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and precipitation over Senegal for 2005. Results showed a specific pattern of rainfall throughout the Dakar region during August, 2005, and the associated rainfall anomaly coincided with an exacerbation of the cholera epidemic. Comparison of rainfall and epidemiological patterns revealed that the temporal dynamics of precipitation, which was abrupt and heavy, was presumably the determining factor. Analysis of the SST gradient showed that the Atlantic Ocean SST variability in 2005 differed from that of 2002 to 2004, a result of a prominent Atlantic meridional mode. The influence of this intense precipitation on cholera transmission over a densely populated and crowded region was detectable for both Dakar and Thiès, Senegal. Thus, high resolution rainfall forecasts at subseasonal time scales should provide a way forward for an early warning system in Africa for cholera and, thereby, trigger epidemic preparedness. Clearly, attention must be paid to both natural and human induced environmental factors to devise appropriate action to prevent cholera and other waterborne disease epidemics in the region.

  10. Prevention of child injuries during tornadoes: cases from the 2011 tornado outbreak in Alabama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Christine M; Baker, Mark D; Monroe, Kathy W

    2012-12-01

    Tornadoes and violent weather pose a hazard to children, yet little is known about the use of personal protective devices during storms. An outbreak of tornadoes on April 27, 2011, resulted in the deaths of 23 children in Alabama. Records from 60 patients seen in a pediatric emergency department for tornado-related injuries were reviewed to identify the use of injury prevention devices. Three children directly exposed to a violent tornado (Enhanced Fujita Scale 4) were using safety equipment, specifically, a helmet and infant car seats. These 3 children sustained only minor injuries. Personal protective devices may have played a role in preventing child injuries from tornadoes. To our knowledge, this is the first report in the medical literature on helmet and infant car seat use as child protective devices during tornadoes.

  11. An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bech

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an observational study of the tornado outbreak that took place on the 7 September 2005 in the Llobregat delta river, affecting a densely populated and urbanised area and the Barcelona International airport (NE Spain. The site survey confirmed at least five short-lived tornadoes. Four of them were weak (F0, F1 and the other one was significant (F2 on the Fujita scale. They started mostly as waterspouts and moved later inland causing extensive damage estimated in 9 million Euros, three injured people but fortunately no fatalities. Large scale forcing was provided by upper level diffluence and low level warm air advection. Satellite and weather radar images revealed the development of the cells that spawned the waterspouts along a mesoscale convergence line in a highly sheared and relatively low buoyant environment. Further analysis indicated characteristics that could be attributed indistinctively to non-supercell or to mini-supercell thunderstorms.

  12. Modeling classical swine fever outbreak-related outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankar eYadav

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The study was carried out to estimate classical swine fever (CSF outbreak-related outcomes such as epidemic duration and number of infected, vaccinated, and depopulated premises, using defined most likely CSF outbreak scenarios. Risk metrics were established using empirical data to select the most likely CSF outbreak scenarios in Indiana. The scenarios were simulated using a stochastic between-premises disease spread model to estimate outbreak-related outcomes. A total of 19 single-site (i.e., with a single-index premises at the onset of an outbreak and 15 multiple-site (i.e., with more than one index premises at the onset of an outbreak outbreak scenarios of CSF were selected using the risk metrics. The number of index premises in the multiple-site outbreak scenarios ranged from 4 to 32. The multiple-site outbreak scenarios were further classified into clustered (N=6 and non-clustered (N=9 groups. The estimated median (5th, 95th percentiles epidemic duration (days was 224 (24, 343 in the single-site and was 190 (157, 251 and 210 (167, 302 in the clustered and non-clustered multiple-site outbreak scenarios, respectively. The median (5th, 95th percentiles number of infected premises was 323 (0, 488 in the single-site outbreak scenarios and was 529 (395, 662 and 465 (295, 640 in the clustered and non-clustered multiple-site outbreak scenarios, respectively. Both the number and spatial distribution of the index premises affected the outcome estimates. The results also showed the importance of implementing vaccinations to accommodate depopulation in the CSF outbreak controls. The use of routinely collected surveillance data in the risk metrics and disease spread model allows end users to generate timely outbreak-related information based on the initial outbreak’s characteristics. Swine producers can use this information to make an informed decision on management of swine operations and continuity of business so that potential losses could be

  13. [Salmonellosis outbreaks in the Czech Republic in 2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myšková, Petra; Karpíšková, Renáta; Dědičová, Daniela

    2013-07-01

    In 2012, the Brno laboratory of the National Institute of Public Health investigated 143 human and 10 food-borne Salmonella strains. All strains were linked to salmonellosis outbreaks in various areas or represented rare serotypes that had emerged more often in some periods. These strains were matched to 22 outbreaks reported in the Czech Republic. Phenotyping and genotyping revealed that the cause of most outbreaks (82%) was the serotype Enteritidis, but other serotypes that are rare in the Czech Republic (S. Mikawasima, S. 9,12:l,v:-, S. Indiana, or S. Stanley) were also involved in some outbreaks.

  14. Typing of Salmonella enterica serovar Saintpaul: an outbreak investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baggesen, Dorte Lau; Wegener, Henrik Caspar; Christensen, J.P.

    1996-01-01

    factor, antibiogram typing, plasmid profiling, ribotyping and pulsed field gel electrophoresis, in order to identify the most probable source of infection. After typing, the source of the investigated outbreak remains obscure because so far no isolates with traits of the outbreak strain have been...... explanation for the failure to find isolates with traits of the outbreak strain could be the presence of a third, but so far unidentified, source. The present investigation illustrates the necessity of using more than one epidemiological typing method for outbreak investigation. This is especially important...

  15. Traffic Control Under Complex Weather Conditions in Suining Airport

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕维峰

    2014-01-01

    Complex weather conditions is meaning thunderstorm freezing turbulence wind-shear low visibility weather affect the flight safety. When confronted with complex weather conditions,the controllers should know the weather condition and trend weather,and notify the aircraft under your control zone.The controllers provide the required services to the pilots,help the pilots to avoid the complex weather.In this paper, through different complex weathers under different control command,get the different methods of control.

  16. Thermal stress weathering and the spalling of Antarctic rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamp, J. L.; Marchant, D. R.; Mackay, S. L.; Head, J. W.

    2017-01-01

    Using in situ field measurements, laboratory analyses, and numerical modeling, we test the potential efficacy of thermal stress weathering in the flaking of millimeter-thick alteration rinds observed on cobbles and boulders of Ferrar Dolerite on Mullins Glacier, McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV). In particular, we examine whether low-magnitude stresses, arising from temperature variations over time, result in thermal fatigue weathering, yielding slow crack propagation along existing cracks and ultimate flake detachment. Our field results show that during summer months clasts of Ferrar Dolerite experience large-temperature gradients across partially detached alteration rinds (>4.7°C mm-1) and abrupt fluctuations in surface temperature (up to 12°C min-1); the latter are likely due to the combined effects of changing solar irradiation and cooling from episodic winds. The results of our thermal stress model, coupled with subcritical crack growth theory, suggest that thermal stresses induced at the base of thin alteration rinds 2 mm thick, common on rocks exposed for 105 years, may be sufficient to cause existing cracks to propagate under present-day meteorological forcing, eventually leading to rind detachment. The increase in porosity observed within alteration rinds relative to unaltered rock interiors, as well as predicted decreases in rind strength based on allied weathering studies, likely facilitates thermal stress crack propagation through a reduction of fracture toughness. We conclude that thermal stress weathering may be an active, though undervalued, weathering process in hyperarid, terrestrial polar deserts such as the stable upland region of the MDV.

  17. Modelling strategies for controlling SARS outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gumel, Abba B.; Ruan, Shigui; Day, Troy; Watmough, James; Brauer, Fred; van den Driessche, P.; Gabrielson, Dave; Bowman, Chris; Alexander, Murray E.; Ardal, Sten; Wu, Jianhong; Sahai, Beni M.

    2004-01-01

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a new, highly contagious, viral disease, emerged in China late in 2002 and quickly spread to 32 countries and regions causing in excess of 774 deaths and 8098 infections worldwide. In the absence of a rapid diagnostic test, therapy or vaccine, isolation of individuals diagnosed with SARS and quarantine of individuals feared exposed to SARS virus were used to control the spread of infection. We examine mathematically the impact of isolation and quarantine on the control of SARS during the outbreaks in Toronto, Hong Kong, Singapore and Beijing using a deterministic model that closely mimics the data for cumulative infected cases and SARS-related deaths in the first three regions but not in Beijing until mid-April, when China started to report data more accurately. The results reveal that achieving a reduction in the contact rate between susceptible and diseased individuals by isolating the latter is a critically important strategy that can control SARS outbreaks with or without quarantine. An optimal isolation programme entails timely implementation under stringent hygienic precautions defined by a critical threshold value. Values below this threshold lead to control, but those above are associated with the incidence of new community outbreaks or nosocomial infections, a known cause for the spread of SARS in each region. Allocation of resources to implement optimal isolation is more effective than to implement sub-optimal isolation and quarantine together. A community-wide eradication of SARS is feasible if optimal isolation is combined with a highly effective screening programme at the points of entry. PMID:15539347

  18. Functional Characterization of Adaptive Mutations during the West African Ebola Virus Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietzel, Erik; Schudt, Gordian; Krähling, Verena; Matrosovich, Mikhail; Becker, Stephan

    2017-01-15

    The Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa started in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, threatened to destabilize a whole region, and showed how easily health crises can turn into humanitarian disasters. EBOV genomic sequences of the West African outbreak revealed nonsynonymous mutations, which induced considerable public attention, but their role in virus spread and disease remains obscure. In this study, we investigated the functional significance of three nonsynonymous mutations that emerged early during the West African EBOV outbreak. Almost 90% of more than 1,000 EBOV genomes sequenced during the outbreak carried the signature of three mutations: a D759G substitution in the active center of the L polymerase, an A82V substitution in the receptor binding domain of surface glycoprotein GP, and an R111C substitution in the self-assembly domain of RNA-encapsidating nucleoprotein NP. Using a newly developed virus-like particle system and reverse genetics, we found that the mutations have an impact on the functions of the respective viral proteins and on the growth of recombinant EBOVs. The mutation in L increased viral transcription and replication, whereas the mutation in NP decreased viral transcription and replication. The mutation in the receptor binding domain of the glycoprotein GP improved the efficiency of GP-mediated viral entry into target cells. Recombinant EBOVs with combinations of the three mutations showed a growth advantage over the prototype isolate Makona C7 lacking the mutations. This study showed that virus variants with improved fitness emerged early during the West African EBOV outbreak. The dimension of the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa was unprecedented. Amino acid substitutions in the viral L polymerase, surface glycoprotein GP, and nucleocapsid protein NP emerged, were fixed early in the outbreak, and were found in almost 90% of the sequences. Here we showed that these mutations affected the functional activity of

  19. Hepatitis A outbreak associated with kava drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Jo-Anne; Kurien, Thomas T; Huppatz, Clare

    2014-03-31

    Hepatitis A is caused by the hepatitis A virus (HAV), with transmission occurring through the faecal-oral route. In May 2013, a case of hepatitis A infection was reported to a Western Australian regional public health unit, with infection acquired in Fiji. Following this, 2 further cases were linked to the index case by kava drinking and 1 further case was a household contact of a secondary case. This outbreak highlights that the preparation of kava drink and/or the use of a common drinking vessel could be a vehicle for the transmission of HAV.

  20. Fungal outbreak in a show cave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurado, V; Porca, E; Cuezva, S; Fernandez-Cortes, A; Sanchez-Moral, S; Saiz-Jimenez, C

    2010-08-01

    Castañar de Ibor Cave (Spain) was discovered in 1967 and declared a Natural Monument in 1997. In 2003 the cave was opened to public visits. Despite of extensive control, on 26 August 2008 the cave walls and sediments appeared colonized by long, white fungal mycelia. This event was the result of an accidental input of detritus on the afternoon of 24 August 2008. We report here a fungal outbreak initiated by Mucor circinelloides and Fusarium solani and the methods used to control it.

  1. The first outbreak of camelpox in Syria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Zi'abi, Omar; Nishikawa, Hiroaki; Meyer, Hermann

    2007-05-01

    In this study we report the first outbreak of camelpox in two provinces in Syria. Clinical symptoms started with fever, salivation and general exanthema. The main features were facial and legs oedema, pustules on the mucosa of the lips and a high rate of abortion. Lesions may also occur on the whole body including scrotum and udder. Specimens were investigated by electron microscopy, virus isolation in cell culture and embryonated eggs and by immunohistochemistry. The causative agent was identified as camelpox virus by polymerase chain reaction and sequencing of the hemagglutinin gene.

  2. The Use of Chemoprophylaxis after Floods to Reduce the Occurrence and Impact of Leptospirosis Outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cristina Schneider

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Record-breaking and devastating rainfall events have occurred in the past decade. Rain and floods are considered the main risk factors for leptospirosis and several outbreaks have been reported following extreme weather events. In such situations, one possible intervention to prevent leptospirosis cases in high-risk groups is the use of chemoprophylaxis. However, not enough evidence of its effect is available. The objectives of this study were to review the literature on the current practices of chemoprophylaxis for leptospirosis and to explore, using a mathematical model, how various chemoprophylaxis scenarios may affect the progression of a leptospirosis outbreak. Twenty-six peer-reviewed publications were selected (10 quantitative studies, two systematic reviews and 14 articles of other types. Oral doxycycline was the most used antibiotic for chemoprophylaxis of leptospirosis. Post-exposure prophylaxis was assessed in four studies following a natural disaster. Although evidence of the effectiveness of post-exposure prophylaxis is inconsistent, the direction of association supported a protective effect for morbidity and mortality. The theoretical model showed how the assumed benefit of chemoprophylaxis was influenced by the time and rate of administration. Future models should consider the heterogeneity of affected communities, improved estimates of the effect of chemoprophylaxis on leptospirosis infection and disease, as well as potential detrimental impacts. Additional research is critical to provide clear evidence-based recommendations for leptospirosis control during an outbreak. The results of this study suggest that chemoprophylaxis may provide some protection in reducing the number of leptospirosis cases after a high-risk exposure; however, the effective benefit may depend on a variety of factors such as the timing and coverage of prophylaxis. The information summarized can be used to support decision-making during a high-risk event.

  3. Infectious disease exposures and outbreaks at a South African neonatal unit with review of neonatal outbreak epidemiology in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dramowski, A; Aucamp, M; Bekker, A; Mehtar, S

    2017-04-01

    Hospitalized neonates are vulnerable to infection, with pathogen exposures occurring in utero, intrapartum, and postnatally. African neonatal units are at high risk of outbreaks owing to overcrowding, understaffing, and shared equipment. Neonatal outbreaks attended by the paediatric infectious diseases and infection prevention (IP) teams at Tygerberg Children's Hospital, Cape Town (May 1, 2008 to April 30, 2016) are described, pathogens, outbreak size, mortality, source, and outbreak control measures. Neonatal outbreaks reported from Africa (January 1, 1996 to January 1, 2016) were reviewed to contextualize the authors' experience within the published literature from the region. Thirteen outbreaks affecting 148 babies (11 deaths; 7% mortality) over an 8-year period were documented, with pathogens including rotavirus, influenza virus, measles virus, and multidrug-resistant bacteria (Serratia marcescens, Acinetobacter baumannii, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and vancomycin-resistant enterococci). Although the infection source was seldom identified, most outbreaks were associated with breaches in IP practices. Stringent transmission-based precautions, staff/parent education, and changes to clinical practices contained the outbreaks. From the African neonatal literature, 20 outbreaks affecting 524 babies (177 deaths; 34% mortality) were identified; 50% of outbreaks were caused by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae. Outbreaks in hospitalized African neonates are frequent but under-reported, with high mortality and a predominance of Gram-negative bacteria. Breaches in IP practice are commonly implicated, with the outbreak source confirmed in less than 50% of cases. Programmes to improve IP practice and address antimicrobial resistance in African neonatal units are urgently required. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Environmental health aspects of drinking water-borne outbreak due to karst flooding: case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dura, Gyula; Pándics, Tamás; Kádár, Mihály; Krisztalovics, Katalin; Kiss, Zoltánné; Bodnár, Judit; Asztalos, Agnes; Papp, Erzsébet

    2010-09-01

    Climate change may increase the incidence of waterborne diseases due to extreme rainfall events, and consequent microbiological contamination of the water source and supply. As a result of the complexity of the pathways from the surface to the consumer, it is difficult to detect an association between rainfall and human disease. The water supply of a Hungarian city, Miskolc (174,000 inhabitant), is mainly based on karstic water, a vulnerable underground water body. A large amount of precipitation fell on the catchment area of the karstic water source, causing an unusually strong karstic water flow and flooding, and subsequent microbiological contamination. The presence of several potential sources of contamination in the protective zone of the karstic water source should be emphasized. The water supplier was unprepared to treat the risk of waterborne outbreak caused by an extreme weather event. Public health intervention and hygienic measures were taken in line with epidemiological actions, focusing on the protection of consumers by providing safe drinking water. The contamination was identified, and measures were taken for risk reduction and prevention. This case study underlines the increasing importance of preparedness for extreme water events in order to protect the karstic water sources and to avoid waterborne outbreaks.

  5. Weather Satellite Enterprise Information Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamilkowski, M. L.; Grant, K. D.; Miller, S. W.; Cochran, S.

    2015-12-01

    NOAA & NASA are acquiring the next-generation civilian operational weather satellite: Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Contributing the afternoon orbit & ground system (GS) to replace current NOAA POES Satellites, its sensors will collect meteorological, oceanographic & climatological data. The JPSS Common Ground System (CGS), consisting of C3 and IDP segments, is developed by Raytheon. It now flies the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, transferring data between ground facilities, processing them into environmental products for NOAA weather centers, and expanding to support JPSS-1 in 2017. As a multi-mission system, CGS provides combinations of C3, data processing, and product delivery for numerous NASA, NOAA, DoD and international missions.The CGS provides a wide range of support to a number of missions: Command and control and mission management for the S-NPP mission today, expanding this support to the JPSS-1 satellite mission in 2017 Data acquisition for S-NPP, the JAXA's Global Change Observation Mission - Water (GCOM-W1), POES, and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and Coriolis/WindSat for the DoD Data routing over a global fiber network for S-NPP, JPSS-1, GCOM-W1, POES, DMSP, Coriolis/WindSat, NASA EOS missions, MetOp for EUMETSAT and the National Science Foundation Environmental data processing and distribution for S-NPP, GCOM-W1 and JPSS-1 The CGS plays a key role in facilitating the movement and value-added enhancement of data all the way from satellite-based sensor data to delivery to the consumers who generate forecasts and produce watches and warnings. This presentation will discuss the information flow from sensors, through data routing and processing, and finally to product delivery. It will highlight how advances in architecture developed through lessons learned from S-NPP and implemented for JPSS-1 will increase data availability and reduce latency for end user applications.

  6. Weather pattern climatology of the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barchet, W.R.; Davis, W.E.

    1984-01-01

    In this study the geographic domain covered the 48 conterminous states of the United States. The daily synoptic weather pattern was classified into nine types for the 10-year period January 1, 1969 to December 31, 1978. Weather pattern types were defined relative to the classical polar front model of a mid-latitude cyclonic storm system and its associated air masses. Guidelines for classifying weather patterns on an operational basis were developed. These were applied to 3652 daily surface weather maps to produce a time series of weather pattern type at 120 grid points of a 160 point, 3/sup 0/ latitude by 4/sup 0/ longitude array over the United States. Statistics on the frequency of occurrence, persistence and alternation of weather patterns were calculated for each grid point. Summary statistics for the entire grid and for six regions were also presented. Frequency of occurrence and persistence were found to depend on the size and speed of movement of the weather pattern. Large, slow moving air masses had higher frequency of occurrence and longer persistence than small (fronts) or rapidly moving (or changing) features (fronts, storm centers). Some types showed distinct regional preferences. The subtropical maritime high occurred mainly in the south central and southeast. An indeterminate weather pattern type accounted for those weather patterns that did not fit the polar front model or were too disorganized to be classified. The intermountain thermal low of the desert southwest was one such feature that dominated both frequency of occurrence and persistence in this region. Alternation from one weather pattern to another followed the polar front model of a moving cyclonic storm. The tendency for anticyclonic weather patterns to become disorganized as they weakened was seen in the high percentage of these patterns that changed to an indeterminate pattern as they aged.

  7. Provenance control on chemical indices of weathering (Taiwan river sands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzanti, Eduardo; Resentini, Alberto

    2016-05-01

    Geochemical parameters obtained from the analysis of sediments and sedimentary rocks are widely used to infer weathering and paleo-weathering conditions in source areas. Chemical indices of weathering, however, may not reflect weathering only, or even principally. The concentration of chemical elements in terrigenous sediments is constrained by the original mineralogy of source rocks, and is thus provenance-dependent. Moreover, the mineralogy and consequently the geochemistry of sediments may undergo substantial modifications by diverse physical processes during transport and deposition, including recycling and hydraulic sorting by size, density or shape, and/or by chemical dissolution and precipitation during diagenesis. Around the island of Taiwan, temperature and rainfall are consistently high and relatively homogeneous, and no significant correlation is observed between geochemical and climatic parameters. Physical erosion, fostered by landslides induced by frequent earthquakes and typhoons, prevails because of high relief and extreme rates of tectonic uplift. In such a dynamic orogenic setting, all chemical indices of weathering are controlled principally by the geology of source terranes. Sedimentaclastic and metasedimentaclastic sands carried by western Taiwan rivers draining the pro-wedge display the strongest depletion in Na, Ca, Mg and Sr relative to average upper continental crust, and no depletion or even enrichment in K, Rb and Ba. Low WIP indices reflect erosion of phyllosilicate-dominated rocks in the Slate Belt and extensive recycling of clastic rocks exposed in the Western Foothills. Instead, metamorphiclastic sands carried by eastern Taiwan rivers draining the retro-wedge show no depletion or even enrichment in Mg and Ca, and low CIA and PIA, reflecting contributions from the Tailuko Belt and Coastal Range. Volcaniclastic sands have the same CIA values of their andesitic source rocks (47 ± 1 versus 47 ± 7), indicating that weathering is

  8. The Application of Synoptic Weather Forecasting Rules to Selected Weather Situations in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Fred E.

    The document describes the use of weather maps and data in teaching introductory college courses in synoptic meteorology. Students examine weather changes at three-hour intervals from data obtained from the "Monthly Summary of Local Climatological Data." Weather variables in the local summary include sky cover, air temperature, dew point, relative…

  9. Hedging Weather Risk for Corn Production in Northeastern China: The Efficiency of Weather-indexed Insurance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, Baojing; Guo, Changhao; Kooten, van G.C.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The paper analyzes the hedging efficiency of weather-indexed insurance for corn production in Northeast of China. The purpose of this paper is to identify the potential weather variables that impact corn yields and to analyze the efficiency of weather-indexed insurance under varying

  10. A difficult Arctic science issue: Midlatitude weather linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.

    2016-09-01

    There is at present unresolved uncertainty whether Arctic amplification (increased air temperatures and loss of sea ice) impacts the location and intensities of recent major weather events in midlatitudes. There are three major impediments. The first is the null hypothesis where the shortness of time series since major amplification (∼15 years) is dominated by the variance of the physical process in the attribution calculation. This makes it impossible to robustly distinguish the influence of Arctic forcing of regional circulation from random events. The second is the large chaotic jet stream variability at midlatitudes producing a small Arctic forcing signal-to-noise ratio. Third, there are other potential external forcings of hemispheric circulation, such as teleconnections driven by tropical and midlatitude sea surface temperature anomalies. It is, however, important to note and understand recent emerging case studies. There is evidence for a causal connection of Barents-Kara sea ice loss, a stronger Siberian High, and cold air outbreaks into eastern Asia. Recent cold air penetrating into the southeastern United States was related to a shift in the long-wave atmospheric wind pattern and reinforced by warmer temperatures west of Greenland. Arctic Linkages is a major research challenge that benefits from an international focus on the topic.

  11. Identifying outbreaks of sexually transmitted infection: who cares?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evans Meirion R

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current routine surveillance schemes for sexually transmitted infections (STIs in the United Kingdom (UK are not designed for outbreak identification. Recognising STI outbreaks, therefore, depends almost entirely on the alertness of health professionals. The objective of this study was to explore health professionals' knowledge of, and attitudes towards, identification and investigation of STI outbreaks in Wales. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey in Wales in June 2005, and sent a questionnaire to consultants of genitourinary medicine (GUM, n = 11, a consultant microbiologist from each laboratory (n = 14, all consultants in communicable disease control (n = 5, and to epidemiologists of the National Public Health Service (n = 4. Results 26 (76% of 34 survey recipients responded. Of these, 17 (65% ranked the investigation of STI outbreaks as important or very important, and 19 (73% perceived participation in the investigation of an STI outbreak as part of their responsibility. Only six (25% respondents had actively searched their computer system or patient records for a possible STI outbreak in the previous twelve months, and 15 (63% had never looked for an outbreak. Of seven GUM physicians who said they had identified at least one STI outbreak, three had never informed public health authorities. Conclusion Prompt identification and coordinated investigation of outbreaks, usually through a multidisciplinary outbreak control team, is central to the control of many infectious diseases. This does not appear to be the case for STIs, which we believe represents a lost opportunity to reduce transmission. Besides improved surveillance methods, a change in culture towards STI outbreaks is needed among health professionals in Wales.

  12. Medium-range fire weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

    1991-01-01

    The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

  13. Uncertainty analysis of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.; Doeswijk, T.G.

    2010-01-01

    The indoor climate of many storage facilities for agricultural produce is controlled by mixing ambient air with the air flow through the store room. Hence, the indoor climate is affected by the ambient weather conditions. Given hourly fluctuating energy tariffs, weather forecasts over some days are

  14. Uncertainty analysis of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.; Doeswijk, T.G.

    2010-01-01

    The indoor climate of many storage facilities for agricultural produce is controlled by mixing ambient air with the air flow through the store room. Hence, the indoor climate is affected by the ambient weather conditions. Given hourly fluctuating energy tariffs, weather forecasts over some days are

  15. Adaptive Weather Forecasting using Local Meteorological Information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    In general, meteorological parameters such as temperature, rain and global radiation are important for agricultural systems. Anticipating on future conditions is most often needed in these systems. Weather forecasts then become of substantial importance. As weather forecasts are subject to uncertain

  16. The Early Years: About the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy

    2015-01-01

    Observing and documenting elements of weather teach children about using tools and their senses to learn about the environment. This column discusses resources and science topics related to students in grades preK to 2. This month's issue describes an activity where students indirectly document local weather by counting outdoor clothing types worn…

  17. AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.

  18. Measles Outbreak - Minnesota April-May 2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Victoria; Banerjee, Emily; Kenyon, Cynthia; Strain, Anna; Griffith, Jayne; Como-Sabetti, Kathryn; Heath, Jennifer; Bahta, Lynn; Martin, Karen; McMahon, Melissa; Johnson, Dave; Roddy, Margaret; Dunn, Denise; Ehresmann, Kristen

    2017-07-14

    On April 10, 2017, the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) was notified about a suspected measles case. The patient was a hospitalized child aged 25 months who was evaluated for fever and rash, with onset on April 8. The child had no history of receipt of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine and no travel history or known exposure to measles. On April 11, MDH received a report of a second hospitalized, unvaccinated child, aged 34 months, with an acute febrile rash illness with onset on April 10. The second patient's sibling, aged 19 months, who had also not received MMR vaccine, had similar symptoms, with rash onset on March 30. Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) testing of nasopharyngeal swab or throat specimens performed at MDH confirmed measles in the first two patients on April 11, and in the third patient on April 13; subsequent genotyping identified genotype B3 virus in all three patients, who attended the same child care center. MDH instituted outbreak investigation and response activities in collaboration with local health departments, health care facilities, child care facilities, and schools in affected settings. Because the outbreak occurred in a community with low MMR vaccination coverage, measles spread rapidly, resulting in thousands of exposures in child care centers, schools, and health care facilities. By May 31, 2017, a total of 65 confirmed measles cases had been reported to MDH (Figure 1); transmission is ongoing.

  19. Learn about Earth Science: Weather. [CD-ROM].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000

    This CD-ROM, designed for students in grades K-2, explores the world of weather. Students investigate weather to learn about climate and the seasons, how animals adapt to weather changes, how clouds tell us about conditions, and how weather plays a part in our everyday lives. The weather calendar lets students record and write about conditions…

  20. Pushing the Envelope of Extreme Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. D.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) is one of the few that had superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing millions of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares and the accompanying coronal mass ejections could strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet. What level of solar activity would be necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of the Earth? Can we map out the envelope of space weather along the evolution of the Sun? What would space weather look like if the Sun stopped producing a magnetic field? To what extreme should Space Weather go? These are the extremes of Space Weather explored in this talk.

  1. Space weather: European Space Agency perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, E. J.; Hilgers, A.

    Spacecraft and payloads have become steadily more sophisticated and therefore more susceptible to space weather effects. ESA has long been active in applying models and tools to the problems associated with such effects on its spacecraft. In parallel, ESA and European agencies have built a highly successful solar-terrestrial physics capability. ESA is now investigating the marriage of these technological and scientific capabilities to address perceived user needs for space weather products and services. Two major ESA-sponsored studies are laying the groundwork for a possible operational European space weather service. The wide-ranging activities of ESA in the Space Weather/Space Environment domain are summarized and recent important examples of space weather concerns given.

  2. Surveillance for Waterborne Disease Outbreaks Associated with Drinking Water, United States 2009-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Despite advancements in water management and sanitation, waterborne disease outbreaks continue to occur in the United States. CDC collects data on waterborne disease outbreaks submitted from all states and territories* through the Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance Syst...

  3. Weatherization works: Final report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G.; Kinney, L.F.

    1994-09-01

    In 1990, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored a comprehensive evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program, the nation`s largest residential energy conservation program. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) managed the five-part study. This document summarizes the findings of the evaluation. Its conclusions are based mainly on data from the 1989 program year (supplemented by data from 1991-92). The evaluation concludes that the Program meets the objectives of its enabling legislation and fulfills its mission statement. Specifically, it (1) saves energy, (2) lowers fuel bills, and (3) improves the health and safety of dwellings occupied by low-income people. In addition, the Program achieves its mission in a cost-effective manner based on each of three perspectives employed by the evaluators. Finally, the evaluation estimates that the investments made in 1989 will, over a 20-year lifetime, save the equivalent of 12 million barrels of oil, roughly the amount of oil added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in each of the past several years.

  4. Whether the weather drives patterns of endemic amphibian chytridiomycosis: a pathogen proliferation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Kris A; Skerratt, Lee F; Garland, Stephen; Kriticos, Darren; McCallum, Hamish

    2013-01-01

    The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth) is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis) it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30) were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ~72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1) GI30, 2) frog body size and 3) rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex) and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling) influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario modelling and

  5. Whether the weather drives patterns of endemic amphibian chytridiomycosis: a pathogen proliferation approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kris A Murray

    Full Text Available The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30 were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ~72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1 GI30, 2 frog body size and 3 rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario

  6. Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.; Jenkins, K.; Mander, S.; Walsh, C.

    2016-12-01

    Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

  7. Developing a Time Series Predictive Model for Dengue in Zhongshan, China Based on Weather and Guangzhou Dengue Surveillance Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingtao Zhang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is a re-emerging infectious disease of humans, rapidly growing from endemic areas to dengue-free regions due to favorable conditions. In recent decades, Guangzhou has again suffered from several big outbreaks of dengue; as have its neighboring cities. This study aims to examine the impact of dengue epidemics in Guangzhou, China, and to develop a predictive model for Zhongshan based on local weather conditions and Guangzhou dengue surveillance information.We obtained weekly dengue case data from 1st January, 2005 to 31st December, 2014 for Guangzhou and Zhongshan city from the Chinese National Disease Surveillance Reporting System. Meteorological data was collected from the Zhongshan Weather Bureau and demographic data was collected from the Zhongshan Statistical Bureau. A negative binomial regression model with a log link function was used to analyze the relationship between weekly dengue cases in Guangzhou and Zhongshan, controlling for meteorological factors. Cross-correlation functions were applied to identify the time lags of the effect of each weather factor on weekly dengue cases. Models were validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves and k-fold cross-validation.Our results showed that weekly dengue cases in Zhongshan were significantly associated with dengue cases in Guangzhou after the treatment of a 5 weeks prior moving average (Relative Risk (RR = 2.016, 95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.845-2.203, controlling for weather factors including minimum temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. ROC curve analysis indicated our forecasting model performed well at different prediction thresholds, with 0.969 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC for a threshold of 3 cases per week, 0.957 AUC for a threshold of 2 cases per week, and 0.938 AUC for a threshold of 1 case per week. Models established during k-fold cross-validation also had considerable AUC (average 0.938-0.967. The sensitivity and

  8. Salmonellosis Outbreak Traced to Playground Sand, Australia, 2007–2009

    OpenAIRE

    Staff, Michael; Musto, Jennie; Hogg, Geoff; Janssen, Monika; Rose, Karrie

    2012-01-01

    A community outbreak of gastroenteritis in Australia during 2007–2009 was caused by ingestion of playground sand contaminated with Salmonella enterica Paratyphi B, variant Java. The bacterium was also isolated from local wildlife. Findings support consideration of nonfood sources during salmonellosis outbreak investigations and indicate transmission through the animal–human interface.

  9. Salmonellosis Outbreak Traced to Playground Sand, Australia, 2007–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musto, Jennie; Hogg, Geoff; Janssen, Monika; Rose, Karrie

    2012-01-01

    A community outbreak of gastroenteritis in Australia during 2007–2009 was caused by ingestion of playground sand contaminated with Salmonella enterica Paratyphi B, variant Java. The bacterium was also isolated from local wildlife. Findings support consideration of nonfood sources during salmonellosis outbreak investigations and indicate transmission through the animal–human interface. PMID:22709539

  10. Multiple Synchronous Outbreaks of Puumala Virus, Germany, 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettinger, Jakob; Hofmann, Jorg; Enders, Martin; Tewald, Friedemann; Oehme, Rainer M.; Rosenfeld, Ulrike M.; Ali, Hanan Sheikh; Schlegel, Mathias; Essbauer, Sandra; Osterberg, Anja; Jacob, Jens; Reil, Daniela; Klempa, Boris; Ulrich, Rainer G.

    2012-01-01

    To investigate 2,017 cases of hantavirus disease in Germany, we compared 38 new patient-derived Puumala virus RNA sequences identified in 2010 with bank vole–derived small segment RNA sequences. The epidemic process was driven by outbreaks of 6 Puumala virus clades comprising strains of human and vole origin. Each clade corresponded to a different outbreak region. PMID:22932394

  11. Web-based Investigation of Multistate Salmonellosis Outbreak

    OpenAIRE

    Srikantiah, Padmini; Bodager, Dean; Toth, Bill; Kass-Hout, Taha; Hammond, Roberta; Stenzel, Sara; Hoekstra, R. M.; Adams, Jennifer; Van Duyne, Susan; Mead, Paul S.

    2005-01-01

    We investigated a large outbreak of Salmonella enterica serotype Javiana among attendees of the 2002 U.S. Transplant Games, including 1,500 organ transplant recipients. Web-based survey methods identified pre-diced tomatoes as the source of this outbreak, which highlights the utility of such investigative tools to cope with the changing epidemiology of foodborne diseases.

  12. Synchronized and mixed outbreaks of coupled recurrent epidemics

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng, Muhua; Min, Byungjoon; Liu, Zonghua

    2016-01-01

    Epidemic spreading has been studied for a long time and most of them are focused on the growing aspect of a single epidemic outbreak. Recently, we extended the study to the case of recurrent epidemics (Sci. Rep. {\\bf 5}, 16010 (2015)) but limited only to a single network. We here report from the real data of coupled regions or cities that the recurrent epidemics in two coupled networks are closely related to each other and can show either synchronized outbreak phase where outbreaks occur simultaneously in both networks or mixed outbreak phase where outbreaks occur in one network but do not in another one. To reveal the underlying mechanism, we present a two-layered network model of coupled recurrent epidemics to reproduce the synchronized and mixed outbreak phases. We show that the synchronized outbreak phase is preferred to be triggered in two coupled networks with the same average degree while the mixed outbreak phase is preferred for the case with different average degrees. Further, we show that the coupli...

  13. Large outbreaks of Salmonella Typhimurium infection in Denmark in 2008

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ethelberg, S.; Wingstrand, Anne; Jensen, T.

    2008-01-01

    An outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium phage type U292 has been ongoing in Denmark since 1 April, with 1,054 cases registered until 23 October 2008. Extensive investigations including hypothesis-generating interviews, matched case-control studies, cohort studies in embedded outbreaks, shopping list...

  14. Case Series: Outbreak of Conversion Disorder among Amish Adolescent Girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassady, Joslyn D.; Kirschke, David L.; Jones, Timothy F.; Craig, Allen S.; Bermudez, Ovidio B.; Schaffner, William

    2005-01-01

    Objective: Outbreak investigations are challenging in a cross-cultural context, and outbreaks of psychiatric disease are rare in any community. We investigated a cluster of unexplained debilitating illness among Amish girls. Method: We reviewed the medical records of cases, consulted with health care providers, performed active case finding,…

  15. Outbreak of varicella in a highly vaccinated preschool population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiye Fu

    2015-08-01

    Conclusions: Breakthrough infection with fever in vaccinated person may be as infectious as varicella in unvaccinated persons. High single-dose varicella vaccination coverage is effective in reducing varicella incidence, but not sufficient to prevent outbreak. To control varicella outbreak a second dose may deserve additional consideration.

  16. Large outbreaks of Salmonella Typhimurium infection in Denmark in 2008

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ethelberg, S.; Wingstrand, Anne; Jensen, T.

    2008-01-01

    An outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium phage type U292 has been ongoing in Denmark since 1 April, with 1,054 cases registered until 23 October 2008. Extensive investigations including hypothesis-generating interviews, matched case-control studies, cohort studies in embedded outbreaks, shopping list...

  17. Case Series: Outbreak of Conversion Disorder among Amish Adolescent Girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassady, Joslyn D.; Kirschke, David L.; Jones, Timothy F.; Craig, Allen S.; Bermudez, Ovidio B.; Schaffner, William

    2005-01-01

    Objective: Outbreak investigations are challenging in a cross-cultural context, and outbreaks of psychiatric disease are rare in any community. We investigated a cluster of unexplained debilitating illness among Amish girls. Method: We reviewed the medical records of cases, consulted with health care providers, performed active case finding,…

  18. Epidemic features affecting the performance of outbreak detection algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuang Jie

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Outbreak detection algorithms play an important role in effective automated surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed to improve the performance of outbreak detection, few published studies have examined how epidemic features of infectious disease impact on the detection performance of algorithms. This study compared the performance of three outbreak detection algorithms stratified by epidemic features of infectious disease and examined the relationship between epidemic features and performance of outbreak detection algorithms. Methods Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA, cumulative sum (CUSUM and moving percentile method (MPM algorithms were applied. We inserted simulated outbreaks into notifiable infectious disease data in China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS, and compared the performance of the three algorithms with optimized parameters at a fixed false alarm rate of 5% classified by epidemic features of infectious disease. Multiple linear regression was adopted to analyse the relationship of the algorithms’ sensitivity and timeliness with the epidemic features of infectious diseases. Results The MPM had better detection performance than EWMA and CUSUM through all simulated outbreaks, with or without stratification by epidemic features (incubation period, baseline counts and outbreak magnitude. The epidemic features were associated with both sensitivity and timeliness. Compared with long incubation, short incubation had lower probability (β* = −0.13, P  Conclusions The results of this study suggest that the MPM is a prior algorithm for outbreak detection and differences of epidemic features in detection performance should be considered in automatic surveillance practice.

  19. A study of the 2006 Chikungunya epidemic outbreak in Mauritius

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mr. V. Pydiah

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Chikungunya epidemic outbreaks have affected more than 1 million people in 2005-2006 in many Indian Ocean islands and in India. Mauritius experienced a major outbreak in February/March 2006 following a minor outbreak in April/May 2005. No cases have been registered on the island since August 2006. The objectives of this study were to understand the timing and development of the 2006-outbreak in Mauritius, to investigate the possibility of a future outbreak, and to propose measures to prevent the recurrence of an epidemic in Mauritius. Mauritius rainfall, temperature and humidity data were analyzed. A door-to-door household census-type survey was carried out in a study locality on the island. A compartmental human-mosquito interaction model was integrated to understand outbreak evolutions in the surveyed locality and in a theoretical locality. It was observed that the onset of the 2006-outbreak in February followed an abnormally high rainfall in the third week of January 2006. 51% of the surveyed population was found to be suspected Chikungunya cases. Computer simulations indicated that a small number of infected humans and mosquitoes existed in the surveyed locality at the outbreak onset. From simulations in the theoretical locality, it was deduced that the level of infectivity in some localities may be below a herd immunity threshold and that the additional percentage of infected inhabitants in a follow-up epidemic would be significantly reduced with the case-reactive control of infected adult mosquitoes.

  20. Tuberculosis Outbreak Investigations in the U.S.

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-02-22

    In this podcast, Dr Kiren Mitruka, medical officer with CDC's Tuberculosis Outbreak Investigations team, discusses tuberculosis outbreak investigations in the U.S. from 2002-2008.  Created: 2/22/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 3/22/2011.

  1. Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization – Human Capacity Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiita, Joanne

    2013-07-30

    The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal members’ homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

  2. A Century of Monitoring Weather and Crops: The Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddinghaus, Thomas R.; Le Comte, Douglas M.

    1992-02-01

    Publication of a national weekly weather summary called the Weekly Weather Chronicle began in 1872. This summary was the precursor of today's Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (WWCB), a publication that reports global weather and climate conditions relevant to agricultural interests, as well as current national activities and assessments of crop and livestock conditions. The WWCB is produced by the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF), a world agricultural weather information center located in the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) headquarters in Washington, D.C., and jointly staffed by units of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climats. Analysis Center and USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board and National Agricultural Statistics Service. Besides featuring charts and tables (e.g., temperature and precipitation maps and crop progress and condition tables), the WWCB contains summaries and special stories highlighting significant weather events affecting agriculture, such as droughts, torrential rains, floods, unusual warmth, heat waves, severe freezes, heavy snowfall, blizzards, damaging storms, and hurricanes.

  3. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  4. Cost of dengue outbreaks: literature review and country case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Dengue disease surveillance and vector surveillance are presumed to detect dengue outbreaks at an early stage and to save – through early response activities – resources, and reduce the social and economic impact of outbreaks on individuals, health systems and economies. The aim of this study is to unveil evidence on the cost of dengue outbreaks. Methods Economic evidence on dengue outbreaks was gathered by conducting a literature review and collecting information on the costs of recent dengue outbreaks in 4 countries: Peru, Dominican Republic, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The literature review distinguished between costs of dengue illness including cost of dengue outbreaks, cost of interventions and cost-effectiveness of interventions. Results Seventeen publications on cost of dengue showed a large range of costs from 0.2 Million US$ in Venezuela to 135.2 Million US$ in Brazil. However, these figures were not standardized to make them comparable. Furthermore, dengue outbreak costs are calculated differently across the publications, and cost of dengue illness is used interchangeably with cost of dengue outbreaks. Only one paper from Australia analysed the resources saved through active dengue surveillance. Costs of vector control interventions have been reported in 4 studies, indicating that the costs of such interventions are lower than those of actual outbreaks. Nine papers focussed on the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccines or dengue vector control; they do not provide any direct information on cost of dengue outbreaks, but their modelling methodologies could guide future research on cost-effectiveness of national surveillance systems. The country case studies – conducted in very different geographic and health system settings - unveiled rough estimates for 2011 outbreak costs of: 12 million US$ in Vietnam, 6.75 million US$ in Indonesia, 4.5 million US$ in Peru and 2.8 million US$ in Dominican Republic (all in 2012 US$). The proportions of the

  5. Cholera outbreak in Homa Bay County, Kenya, 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Githuku, Jane Njoki; Boru, Waqo Gufu; Hall, Casey Daniel; Gura, Zeinab; Oyugi, Elvis; Kishimba, Rogath Saika; Semali, Innocent; Farhat, Ghada Nadim; Mattie Park, Meeyoung

    2017-01-01

    Cholera is among the re-emerging diseases in Kenya. Beginning in December 2014, a persistent outbreak occurred involving 29 out of the 47 countries. Homa Bay County in Western Kenya was among the first counties to report cholera cases from January to April 2015. This case study is based on an outbreak investigation conducted by FELTP residents in Homa Bay County in February 2015. It simulates an outbreak investigation including laboratory confirmation, active case finding, descriptive epidemiology and implementation of control measures. This case study is designed for the training of basic level field epidemiology trainees or any other health care workers working in public health-related fields. It can be administered in 2-3 hours. Used as adjunct training material, the case study provides the trainees with competencies in investigating an outbreak in preparation for the actual real-life experience of such outbreaks.

  6. Consequences of BSE disease outbreaks in the Canadian beef industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Čechura

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examines farm to wholesale prices spreads to measure the impact of the BSE disease outbreak on the Canadian beef industry. The study uses structure break tests developed by Gregory and Hansen (1996 and Hansen (1992 examine possible breaks within co integrating relationships. The study finds evidence that the industry began realignment as a result of the UK BSE disease outbreak, and the Canadian BSE disease outbreak was simply the largest realignment of the process beginning with the UK disease outbreak. However, the only statistically significant break was the BSE disease outbreak itself in May 2003. Stability was not restored until the border was reopened in 2005. Specific results indicated that the processing sector exploited the border closure in May 2003 to enhance its market power and that the system returned to a competitive one after the border re-opened in July 2005.

  7. Molecular investigation of tularemia outbreaks, Spain, 1997-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariza-Miguel, Jaime; Johansson, Anders; Fernández-Natal, María Isabel; Martínez-Nistal, Carmen; Orduña, Antonio; Rodríguez-Ferri, Elías F; Hernández, Marta; Rodríguez-Lázaro, David

    2014-05-01

    Tularemia outbreaks occurred in northwestern Spain in 1997-1998 and 2007-2008 and affected >1,000 persons. We assessed isolates involved in these outbreaks by using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis with 2 restriction enzymes and multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis of 16 genomic loci of Francisella tularensis, the cause of this disease. Isolates were divided into 3 pulsotypes by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and 8 allelic profiles by multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis. Isolates obtained from the second tularemia outbreak had the same genotypes as isolates obtained from the first outbreak. Both outbreaks were caused by genotypes of genetic subclade B.Br:FTNF002-00, which is widely distributed in countries in central and western Europe. Thus, reemergence of tularemia in Spain was not caused by the reintroduction of exotic strains, but probably by persistence of local reservoirs of infection.

  8. Weather Station and Sensor Locations, MDTA Roadway weather station, weather stations, weather sensors, Roadway weather sensors, RWIS, MDTA weather sensors, Published in 2009, 1:1200 (1in=100ft) scale, Maryland Transportation Authority.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — This Weather Station and Sensor Locations dataset, published at 1:1200 (1in=100ft) scale, was produced all or in part from Hardcopy Maps information as of 2009. It...

  9. Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) Project: Dissemination of Weather Information for the Reduction of Aviation Weather-Related Accident Causal Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarrell, Michael; Tanger, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) is part of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project, which is part of the NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program. The goals of WINCOMM are to facilitate the exchange of tactical and strategic weather information between air and ground. This viewgraph presentation provides information on data link decision factors, architectures, validation goals. WINCOMM is capable of providing en-route communication air-to-ground, ground-to-air, and air-to-air, even on international or intercontinental flights. The presentation also includes information on the capacity, cost, and development of data links.

  10. The Methanol Poisoning Outbreaks in Libya 2013 and Kenya 2014.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morten Rostrup

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of methanol poisoning occur frequently on a global basis, affecting poor and vulnerable populations. Knowledge regarding methanol is limited, likely many cases and even outbreaks go unnoticed, with patients dying unnecessarily. We describe findings from the first three large outbreaks of methanol poisoning where Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF responded, and evaluate the benefits of a possible future collaboration between local health authorities, a Non-Governmental Organisation and international expertise.Retrospective study of three major methanol outbreaks in Libya (2013 and Kenya (May and July 2014. Data were collected from MSF field personnel, local health personnel, hospital files, and media reports.In Tripoli, Libya, over 1,000 patients were poisoned with a reported case fatality rate of 10% (101/1,066. In Kenya, two outbreaks resulted in approximately 341 and 126 patients, with case fatality rates of 29% (100/341 and 21% (26/126, respectively. MSF launched an emergency team with international experts, medications and equipment, however, the outbreaks were resolving by the time of arrival.Recognition of an outbreak of methanol poisoning and diagnosis seem to be the most challenging tasks, with significant delay from time of first presentations to public health warnings being issued. In spite of the rapid response from an emergency team, the outbreaks were nearly concluded by the time of arrival. A major impact on the outcome was not seen, but large educational trainings were conducted to increase awareness and knowledge about methanol poisoning. Based on this training, MSF was able to send a local emergency team during the second outbreak, supporting that such an approach could improve outcomes. Basic training, simplified treatment protocols, point-of-care diagnostic tools, and early support when needed, are likely the most important components to impact the consequences of methanol poisoning outbreaks in these challenging

  11. Influence of pH during chemical weathering of bricks: Long term exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rörig-Dalgaard, Inge; Charola, A. Elena

    2016-01-01

    Within the framework of environmental weathering of bricks in historical structures, this study focuses on new bricks currently employed for restoration projects. The bricks were subjected to an accelerated chemical weathering test by immersion in solutions with pH ranging from 3 to 13 for differ......Within the framework of environmental weathering of bricks in historical structures, this study focuses on new bricks currently employed for restoration projects. The bricks were subjected to an accelerated chemical weathering test by immersion in solutions with pH ranging from 3 to 13...... for different lengths of time up to 432 days, data to 288 days are presented since the project is still ongoing. The study analyzed the changes of pH induced in the solutions by the presence of the bricks (this also served to adjust the pH to the intended value), as well as the concentration of various ions...

  12. On-line data acquisition system for Aanderaa weather station

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    AshokKumar, K.; Diwan, S.G.

    Aanderaa Weather Station can be installed at unattended remote places for collection of various weather parameters at regular preselected intervals. The weather parameters are recorded on the magnetic spool inside a battery operated datalogger which...

  13. Operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kukkonen, J.; Balk, T.; Schultz, D.M.; Baklanov, A.; Klein, T.; Miranda, A.I.; Monteiro, A.; Hirtl, M.; Tarvainen, V.; Boy, M.; Peuch, V.H.; Poupkou, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Finardi, S.; Sofiev, M.; Sokhi, R.; Lehtinen, K.; Karatzas, K.; San José, R.; Astitha, M.; Kallos, G.; Schaap, M.; Reimer, E.; Jakobs, H.; Eben, K.

    2011-01-01

    Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed

  14. Weatherization Works: Final Report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.

    2001-02-01

    In 1990, the US Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored a comprehensive evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program, the nation's largest residential energy conservation program. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) managed the five-part study. This document summarizes the findings of the evaluation. Its conclusions are based mainly on data from the 1989 program year. The evaluation concludes that the Program meets the objectives of its enabling legislation and fulfills its mission statement. Specifically, it saves energy, lowers fuel bills, and improves the health and safety of dwellings occupied by low-income people. In addition, the Program achieves its mission in a cost-effective manner based on each of three perspectives employed by the evaluators. Finally, the evaluation estimates that the investments made in 1989 will, over a 20-year lifetime, save the equivalent of 12 million barrels of oil, roughly the amount of oil added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in each of the past several years. The Program's mission is to reduce the heating and cooling costs for low-income families--particularly the elderly, persons with disabilities, and children by improving the energy efficiency of their homes and ensuring their health and safety. Substantial progress has been made, but the job is far from over. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) reports that the average low-income family spends 12 percent of its income on residential energy, compared to only 3% for the average-income family. Homes where low-income families live also have a greater need for energy efficiency improvements, but less money to pay for them.

  15. MEASURING SYSTEM OF ADVERSE WEATHER PHENOMENA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ćurić

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Measuring system of adverse weather phenomena. The adverse weather phenomena in nowadays are becoming an extraordinary problem in human life and human activity. Therefore, it seems very important to know the thresholds of adverse weather phenomena. These thresholds can be calculated in different ways, but some experience has shown that for weather elements which departures from normal follow the normal distribution suits to use the Gaussian curve of frequency distribution (temperature and pressure. For such weather elements the normal curve of frequency distribution may be used for classification of thresholds. For weather elements which departures do not depend on such a frequency distribution configuration (precipitation amounts may be used a decile method. For wind speed thresholds, the Beaufort scale units can be used for calculation. In this paper the threshold scales for four basic weather elemnts are presented. All these scales contain four steps each. They are defined: normal, above normal, much above normal and extraordinary above normal or normal, below normal, much below normal and extraordinary below normal. The examples by observations of Meteorological Observatory in Belgrade are presented.

  16. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddox, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Jain, P.; Garneau, J. W.; Berrios, D. H.; Pulkinnen, A.; Rowland, D.

    2008-12-01

    Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions is therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products, along with the lack of single-portal access, renders its practical use for space weather analysis and forecasting unfeasible. There exists a compelling need for accurate real-time forecasting of both large-scale and local space environments - and their probable impacts for missions. A vital design driver for any system that is created to solve this problem lies in the fact that information needs to be presented in a form that is useful and as such, must be both easily accessible and understandable. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis System is a joint development project at NASA GSFC between the Space Weather Laboratory, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Applied Engineering & Technology Directorate, and NASA HQ Office Of Chief Engineer. The iSWA system will be a turnkey, web-based dissemination system for NASA-relevant space weather information that combines forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models with concurrent space environment information. It will be customer configurable and adaptable for use as a powerful decision making tool offering an unprecedented ability to analyze the present and expected future space weather impacts on virtually all NASA human and robotic missions. We will discuss some of the key design considerations for the system and present some of the initial space weather analysis products that have been created to date.

  17. On possible influence of space weather on agricultural markets: Necessary conditions and probable scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pustil'nik, L.; Yom Din, G.

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area-specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysismethods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable manifestation of the influence of space weather on prices, discovered in the statistics of intervals between the price hikes and phase price asymmetry. We show that the effects of phase price asymmetry persist even during the early modern period in the U.S. in the production of the durum wheat. Within the proposed approach, we analyze the statistics of depopulation in the eighteenth and nineteenth century Iceland, induced by the famine due to a sharp livestock reduction owing to, in its turn, the lack of foodstuff due to the local weather anomalies. A high statistical significance of temporal matching of these events with the periods of extreme solar activity is demonstrated. We discuss the possible consequences of the observed global climate change in the formation of new areas of risk farming, sensitive to space weather.

  18. An outbreak of Ebola in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okware, S I; Omaswa, F G; Zaramba, S; Opio, A; Lutwama, J J; Kamugisha, J; Rwaguma, E B; Kagwa, P; Lamunu, M

    2002-12-01

    An outbreak of Ebola disease was reported from Gulu district, Uganda, on 8 October 2000. The outbreak was characterized by fever and haemorrhagic manifestations, and affected health workers and the general population of Rwot-Obillo, a village 14 km north of Gulu town. Later, the outbreak spread to other parts of the country including Mbarara and Masindi districts. Response measures included surveillance, community mobilization, case and logistics management. Three coordination committees were formed: National Task Force (NTF), a District Task Force (DTF) and an Interministerial Task Force (IMTF). The NTF and DTF were responsible for coordination and follow-up of implementation of activities at the national and district levels, respectively, while the IMTF provided political direction and handled sensitive issues related to stigma, trade, tourism and international relations. The international response was coordinated by the World Health Organization (WHO) under the umbrella organization of the Global Outbreak and Alert Response Network. A WHO/CDC case definition for Ebola was adapted and used to capture four categories of cases, namely, the 'alert', 'suspected', 'probable' and 'confirmed cases'. Guidelines for identification and management of cases were developed and disseminated to all persons responsible for surveillance, case management, contact tracing and Information Education Communication (IEC). For the duration of the epidemic that lasted up to 16 January 2001, a total of 425 cases with 224 deaths were reported countrywide. The case fatality rate was 53%. The attack rate (AR) was highest in women. The average AR for Gulu district was 12.6 cases/10 000 inhabitants when the contacts of all cases were considered and was 4.5 cases/10 000 if limited only to contacts of laboratory confirmed cases. The secondary AR was 2.5% when nearly 5000 contacts were followed up for 21 days. Uganda was finally declared Ebola free on 27 February 2001, 42 days after the last case

  19. BCG protects toddlers during a tuberculosis outbreak.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Gaensbauer, J T

    2009-05-01

    In 2007, an outbreak of tuberculosis occurred in a toddler population attending two child care centres in Cork, Ireland. Of 268 children exposed, 18 were eventually diagnosed with active tuberculosis. We present the initial clinical and radiographic characteristics of the active disease group. Mantoux testing was positive in only 66% of cases. All cases were either pulmonary or involved hilar adenopathy on chest radiograph; there were no cases of disseminated disease or meningitis. 24% of the exposed children had been previously vaccinated with BCG, and no case of active disease was found in this group (p = 0.016), suggesting a profound protective effect of BCG in this population. Our experience provides evidence supporting a protective effect of BCG against pulmonary disease in young children.

  20. Hepatitis E outbreak on cruise ship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Said, Bengü; Ijaz, Samreen; Kafatos, George; Booth, Linda; Thomas, H Lucy; Walsh, Amanda; Ramsay, Mary; Morgan, Dilys

    2009-11-01

    In 2008, acute hepatitis E infection was confirmed in 4 passengers returning to the United Kingdom after a world cruise. Epidemiologic investigation showed that of 789 persons who provided blood samples, 195 (25%) were seropositive, 33 (4%) had immunoglobulin [Ig] M levels consistent with recent acute infection (11 of these persons were symptomatic), and 162 (21%) had IgG only, consistent with past infection. Passenger mean age was 68 years. Most (426/789, 54%) passengers were female, yet most with acute infection (25/33, 76%) were male. Sequencing of RNA from 3 case-patients identified hepatitis E virus genotype 3, closely homologous to genotype 3 viruses from Europe. Significant association with acute infection was found for being male, drinking alcohol, and consuming shellfish while on board (odds ratio 4.27, 95% confidence interval 1.23-26.94, p = 0.019). This was probably a common-source foodborne outbreak.

  1. Jovian magnetospheric weathering of Europa's nonice surface material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibbitts, Charles A.; Paranicas, Christopher; Blaney, Diana L.; Murchie, Scott; Seelos, Frank

    2016-10-01

    Jovian plasma and energetic charged particles bombard the Galilean satellites. These satellites vary from volcanically active (Io) to a nearly primordial surface (Callisto). These satellites are imbedded in a harsh and complex particle radiation environment that weathers their surfaces, and thus are virtual laboratories for understanding how particle bombardment alters the surfaces of airless bodies. Europa orbits deeply in the Jovian radiation belts and may have an active surface, where space weathering and geologic processes can interact in complex ways with a range of timescales. At Europa's surface temperature of 80K to 130K, the hydrated nonice material and to a lesser extent, water ice, will be thermally stable over geologic times and will exhibit the effects of weathering. The ice on the surface of Europa is amorphous and contains trace products such as H2O2 [1] due to weathering. The nonice material, which likely has an endogenic component [2] may also be partially amorphous and chemically altered as a result of being weathered by electrons, Iogenic sulfur, or other agents [3]. This hydrated salt or frozen brine likely compositionally 'matures' over time as the more weakly bound constituents are preferentially removed compared with Ca and Mg [4]. Electron bombardment induces chemical reactions through deposition of energy (e.g., ionizations) possibly explaining some of the nonice material's redness [5,6]. Concurrently, micrometeroid gardening mixes the upper surface burying weathered and altered material while exposing both fresh material and previous altered material, potentially with astrobiological implications. Our investigation of the spectral alteration of nonice analog materials irradiated by 10s keV electrons demonstrates the prevalence of this alteration and we discuss relevance to potential measurements by the Europa MISE instrument.References: [1] Moore, M. and R. Hudson, (2000), Icarus, 145, 282-288; [2] McCord et al., (1998), Science, 280, 1242

  2. Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, William N.

    2006-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic

  3. An outbreak of suspected cutaneous leishmaniasis in Ghana: lessons learnt and preparation for future outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kweku, Margaret A; Odoom, Shirley; Puplampu, Naiki; Desewu, Kwame; Nuako, Godwin Kwakye; Gyan, Ben; Raczniak, Greg; Kronmann, Karl C; Koram, Kwadwo; Botero, Silvia; Boakye, Daniel; Akuffo, Hannah

    2011-01-01

    Human cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) has previously been reported in West Africa, but more recently, sporadic reports of CL have increased. Leishmania major has been identified from Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Three zymodemes (MON-26, MON-117, and MON-74, the most frequent) have been found. The geographic range of leishmaniasis is limited by the sand fly vector, its feeding preferences, and its capacity to support internal development of specific species of Leishmania. The risk of acquiring CL has been reported to increase considerably with human activity and epidemics of CL have been associated with deforestation, road construction, wars, or other activities where humans intrude the habitat of the vector. In the Ho Municipality in the Volta Region of Ghana, a localised outbreak of skin ulcers, possibly CL, was noted in 2003 without any such documented activity. This outbreak was consistent with CL as evidenced using various methods including parasite identification, albeit, in a small number of patients with ulcers. This paper reports the outbreak in Ghana. The report does not address a single planned study but rather a compilation of data from a number of ad-hoc investigations in response to the outbreak plus observations and findings made by the authors. It acknowledges that a number of the observations need to be further clarified. What is the detailed epidemiology of the disease? What sparked the epidemic? Can it happen again? What was the causative agent of the disease, L. major or some other Leishmania spp.? What were the main vectors and animal reservoirs? What are the consequences for surveillance of the disease and the prevention of its reoccurrence when the communities see a self-healing disease and may not think it is important?

  4. An outbreak of suspected cutaneous leishmaniasis in Ghana: lessons learnt and preparation for future outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Boakye

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Human cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL has previously been reported in West Africa, but more recently, sporadic reports of CL have increased. Leishmania major has been identified from Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Three zymodemes (MON-26, MON-117, and MON-74, the most frequent have been found. The geographic range of leishmaniasis is limited by the sand fly vector, its feeding preferences, and its capacity to support internal development of specific species of Leishmania. The risk of acquiring CL has been reported to increase considerably with human activity and epidemics of CL have been associated with deforestation, road construction, wars, or other activities where humans intrude the habitat of the vector. In the Ho Municipality in the Volta Region of Ghana, a localised outbreak of skin ulcers, possibly CL, was noted in 2003 without any such documented activity. This outbreak was consistent with CL as evidenced using various methods including parasite identification, albeit, in a small number of patients with ulcers.This paper reports the outbreak in Ghana. The report does not address a single planned study but rather a compilation of data from a number of ad-hoc investigations in response to the outbreak plus observations and findings made by the authors. It acknowledges that a number of the observations need to be further clarified. What is the detailed epidemiology of the disease? What sparked the epidemic? Can it happen again? What was the causative agent of the disease, L. major or some other Leishmania spp.? What were the main vectors and animal reservoirs? What are the consequences for surveillance of the disease and the prevention of its reoccurrence when the communities see a self-healing disease and may not think it is important?

  5. Weather station with a web server

    OpenAIRE

    Repinc, Matej

    2013-01-01

    In this diploma thesis we present the process of making a cheap weather station using Arduino prototyping platform and its functionality. The weather station monitors current temperature, humidity of air and air pressure. The station has its own simple HTTP server that is used to relay current data in two different formats: JSON encoded data and simple HTML website. The weather station can also send data to a pre-defined server used for data collection. We implemented a web site where data an...

  6. The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Peter; Thorpe, Alan; Brunet, Gilbert

    2015-09-01

    Advances in numerical weather prediction represent a quiet revolution because they have resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances over many years that, with only a few exceptions, have not been associated with the aura of fundamental physics breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the impact of numerical weather prediction is among the greatest of any area of physical science. As a computational problem, global weather prediction is comparable to the simulation of the human brain and of the evolution of the early Universe, and it is performed every day at major operational centres across the world.

  7. Space weather and coronal mass ejections

    CERN Document Server

    Howard, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Space weather has attracted a lot of attention in recent times. Severe space weather can disrupt spacecraft, and on Earth can be the cause of power outages and power station failure. It also presents a radiation hazard for airline passengers and astronauts. These ""magnetic storms"" are most commonly caused by coronal mass ejections, or CMES, which are large eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun that can reach speeds of several thousand km/s. In this SpringerBrief, Space Weather and Coronal Mass Ejections, author Timothy Howard briefly introduces the coronal mass ejection, its sc

  8. PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: All Weather Friendship Keeps Rising

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    @@ Tangible Suggestions on Promoting All Weather Bilateral Trade I would first of all like to extend warm greetings from the people of Pakistan to the people of China on the 55th year of all weather friendship between our two countries and this all weather friendship will keep rising. Succeeding generations in both countries have ever since carefully nurtured this friendship which has blossomed into beautiful and all comprehensive partnership for peace and development. Pakistan China friendship is rooted in the ethos of our peoples.It evokes spontaneous love, respect, admiration and touches a receptive cord in every heart that resonates and energizes this unique relationship.

  9. Weather and childbirth: A further search for relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Dennis M.

    1995-09-01

    Previous attempts to find relationships between weather and parturition (childbirth) and its onset (the beginning of labor pains) have revealed, firstly, limited but statistically significant relationships between weather conditions much colder than the day before, with high winds and low pressure, and increased onsets; and secondly, increased numbers of childbirths during periods of atmospheric pressure rise (highly statistically significant). To test these findings, this study examined weather data coincident childbirth data from a hospital at Bryan-College Station, Texas (for a period of 30 cool months from 1987 to 1992). Tests for (1) days of cold fronts, (2) a day before and a day after the cold front, (3) days with large temperature increases, and (4) decreases from the day before revealed no relationship with mean daily rate of onset. Cold days with high winds and low pressure had significantly fewer onsets, a result that is the opposite of previous findings. The postulated relationship between periods of pressure rise and increased birth frequency was negative, i.e., significantly fewer births occurred at those times — again, the opposite of the apparent occurrence in an earlier study. The coincidence of diurnal variations in both atmospheric pressure and frequency of childbirths, was shown to account for fairly strong negative associations between the two variables. This same reasoning might explain the positive association found in an earlier study. A comparison has been made between childbirth and onset as the response variable, and the advantage is emphasized of using data from women whose labor is not induced.

  10. Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganushkina, Natalia; Jaynes, Allison; Liemohn, Michael

    2017-10-01

    One of the definitions of space weather describes it as the time-varying space environment that may be hazardous to technological systems in space and/or on the ground and/or endanger human health or life. The ring current has its contributions to space weather effects, both in terms of particles, ions and electrons, which constitute it, and magnetic and electric fields produced and modified by it at the ground and in space. We address the main aspects of the space weather effects from the ring current starting with brief review of ring current discovery and physical processes and the Dst-index and predictions of the ring current and storm occurrence based on it. Special attention is paid to the effects on satellites produced by the ring current electrons. The ring current is responsible for several processes in the other inner magnetosphere populations, such as the plasmasphere and radiation belts which is also described. Finally, we discuss the ring current influence on the ionosphere and the generation of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC).

  11. Convective weather hazards in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, MN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumenfeld, Kenneth A.

    This dissertation investigates the frequency and intensity of severe convective storms, and their associated hazards, in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA), Minnesota. Using public severe weather reports databases and high spatial density rain gauge data, annual frequencies and return-periods are calculated for tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flood-inducing rainfall. The hypothesis that severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are less likely in the central TCMA than in surrounding areas also is examined, and techniques for estimating 100-year rainfall amounts are developed and discussed. This research finds that: (i) storms capable of significant damage somewhere within the TCMA recur annually (sometimes multiple times per year), while storms virtually certain to cause such damage recur every 2-3 years; (ii) though severe weather reports data are not amenable to classical comparative statistical testing, careful treatment of them suggests all types and intensity categories of severe convective weather have been and should continue to be approximately as common in the central TCMA as in surrounding areas; and (iii) applications of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics and areal analyses of rainfall data lead to significantly larger (25-50%) estimates of 100-year rainfall amounts in the TCMA and parts of Minnesota than those currently published and used for precipitation design. The growth of the TCMA, the popular sentiment that downtown areas somehow deter severe storms and tornadoes, and the prior underestimation of extreme rainfall thresholds for precipitation design, all act to enhance local susceptibility to hazards from severe convective storms.

  12. NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard; hide

    2012-01-01

    The NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing forecasts, alerts, research, and educational support to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to the needs of the general space weather community. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, custom space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts. There are many challenges in providing accurate descriptions of past, present, and expected space weather events - and the Space Weather Center at NASA GSFC employs several innovative solutions to provide access to a comprehensive collection of both observational data, as well as space weather model/simulation data. We'll describe the challenges we've faced with managing hundreds of data streams, running models in real-time, data storage, and data dissemination. We'll also highlight several systems and tools that are utilized by the Space Weather Center in our daily operations, all of which are available to the general community as well. These systems and services include a web-based application called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), two mobile space weather applications for both IOS and Android devices, an external API for web-service style access to data, google earth compatible data products, and a downloadable client-based visualization tool.

  13. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management; Powernext Weather, des indices de reference pour gerer le risque meteo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  14. Impact of Tactical and Strategic Weather Avoidance on Separation Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refai, Mohamad S.; Windhorst, Robert

    2011-01-01

    The ability to keep flights away from weather hazards while maintaining aircraft-to-aircraft separation is critically important. The Advanced Airspace Concept is an automation concept that implements a ground-based strategic conflict resolution algorithm for management of aircraft separation. The impact of dynamic and uncertain weather avoidance on this concept is investigated. A strategic weather rerouting system is integrated with the Advanced Airspace Concept, which also provides a tactical weather avoidance algorithm, in a fast time simulation of the Air Transportation System. Strategic weather rerouting is used to plan routes around weather in the 20 minute to two-hour time horizon. To address forecast uncertainty, flight routes are revised at 15 minute intervals. Tactical weather avoidance is used for short term trajectory adjustments (30 minute planning horizon) that are updated every minute to address any weather conflicts (instances where aircraft are predicted to pass through weather cells) that are left unresolved by strategic weather rerouting. The fast time simulation is used to assess the impact of tactical weather avoidance on the performance of automated conflict resolution as well as the impact of strategic weather rerouting on both conflict resolution and tactical weather avoidance. The results demonstrate that both tactical weather avoidance and strategic weather rerouting increase the algorithm complexity required to find aircraft conflict resolutions. Results also demonstrate that tactical weather avoidance is prone to higher airborne delay than strategic weather rerouting. Adding strategic weather rerouting to tactical weather avoidance reduces total airborne delays for the reported scenario by 18% and reduces the number of remaining weather violations by 13%. Finally, two features are identified that have proven important for strategic weather rerouting to realize these benefits; namely, the ability to revise reroutes and the use of maneuvers

  15. Epidemiology of foodborne norovirus outbreaks, United States, 2001-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Aron J; Eisenbart, Valerie G; Etingüe, Amy Lehman; Gould, L Hannah; Lopman, Ben A; Parashar, Umesh D

    2012-10-01

    Noroviruses are the leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States. To better guide interventions, we analyzed 2,922 foodborne disease outbreaks for which norovirus was the suspected or confirmed cause, which had been reported to the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2001-2008. On average, 365 foodborne norovirus outbreaks were reported annually, resulting in an estimated 10,324 illnesses, 1,247 health care provider visits, 156 hospitalizations, and 1 death. In 364 outbreaks attributed to a single commodity, leafy vegetables (33%), fruits/nuts (16%), and mollusks (13%) were implicated most commonly. Infected food handlers were the source of 53% of outbreaks and may have contributed to 82% of outbreaks. Most foods were likely contaminated during preparation and service, except for mollusks, and occasionally, produce was contaminated during production and processing. Interventions to reduce the frequency of foodborne norovirus outbreaks should focus on food workers and production of produce and shellfish.

  16. National Ignition Facility wet weather construction plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kugler, A N

    1998-01-01

    This report presents a wet weather construction plan for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) construction project. Construction of the NIF commenced in mid- 1997, and excavation of the site was completed in the fall. Preparations for placing concrete foundations began in the fall, and above normal rainfall is expected over the tinter. Heavy rainfall in late November impacted foundation construction, and a wet weather construction plan was determined to be needed. This wet weather constiction plan recommends a strategy, techniques and management practices to prepare and protect the site corn wet weather effects and allow construction work to proceed. It is intended that information in this plan be incorporated in the Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) as warranted.

  17. Improving Local Weather Forecasts for Agricultural Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    For controlling agricultural systems, weather forecasts can be of substantial importance. Studies have shown that forecast errors can be reduced in terms of bias and standard deviation using forecasts and meteorological measurements from one specific meteorological station. For agricultural systems

  18. Space weather research and forecast in USA

    CERN Document Server

    Pevtsov, Alexei A

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, scientific research in space weather is funded by several Government Agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). For commercial purposes, space weather forecast is made by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Observations come from the network of groundbased observatories funded via various sources, as well as from the instruments on spacecraft. Numerical models used in forecast are developed in the framework of individual research projects. Later, the most promising models are selected for additional testing at SWPC. In order to increase the application of models in research and education, NASA in collaboration with other agencies created Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). In mid-1990, US scientific community presented compelling evidence for developing the National Program on Space Weather, and in 1995, such program has been formally created...

  19. Improving Local Weather Forecasts for Agricultural Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    For controlling agricultural systems, weather forecasts can be of substantial importance. Studies have shown that forecast errors can be reduced in terms of bias and standard deviation using forecasts and meteorological measurements from one specific meteorological station. For agricultural systems

  20. Europe's First Space Weather Think Tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilensten, Jean; Clark, Toby; Belehaki, Anna

    2004-04-01

    A new European intergovernmental action devoted to space weather has been recently approved. This paper describes the political and scientific context in which this action takes place, and the goals of this action, called COST 724.

  1. The fate of chromium during tropical weathering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berger, Alfons; Frei, Robert

    2014-01-01

    . The negatively fractionated δ53Cr values measured in the weathering profile relative to the unaltered tonalitic bedrock characterized by a high temperature magmatic inventory Cr isotope signature are consistent with loss of a positively fractionated Cr(VI) pool formed during weathering. The predicted existence......We performed a mineral, geochemical and Cr–Sr–Pb isotope study on a laterite profile developed on ca. 540 Ma old tonalitic bedrock in Madagascar with special emphasis on the behavior of chromium during tropical weathering. The observed strong depletions of Ca, Si, and P, and enrichment of Fe and Al...... of the soil profile relative to stage one altered saprolite. This gain in Cr is accompanied by decreasing δ53Cr values and can be explained by partial immobilization (possibly by adsorption/coprecipitation on/with Fe-oxy-hydroxides) of mobile Cr(III) during upward transport in the weathering profile...

  2. Case characteristics among Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak and non-outbreak cases in Saudi Arabia from 2012 to 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alhamlan, F S; Majumder, M S; Brownstein, J S; Hawkins, J; Al-Abdely, H M; Alzahrani, A; Obaid, D A; Al-Ahdal, M N; BinSaeed, A

    2017-01-01

    Objectives As of 1 November 2015, the Saudi Ministry of Health had reported 1273 cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS); among these cases, which included 9 outbreaks at several hospitals, 717 (56%) patients recovered, 14 (1%) remain hospitalised and 543 (43%) died. This study aimed to determine the epidemiological, demographic and clinical characteristics that distinguished cases of MERS contracted during outbreaks from those contracted sporadically (ie, non-outbreak) between 2012 and 2015 in Saudi Arabia. Design Data from the Saudi Ministry of Health of confirmed outbreak and non-outbreak cases of MERS coronavirus (CoV) infections from September 2012 through October 2015 were abstracted and analysed. Univariate and descriptive statistical analyses were conducted, and the time between disease onset and confirmation, onset and notification and onset and death were examined. Results A total of 1250 patients (aged 0–109 years; mean, 50.825 years) were reported infected with MERS-CoV. Approximately two-thirds of all MERS cases were diagnosed in men for outbreak and non-outbreak cases. Healthcare workers comprised 22% of all MERS cases for outbreak and non-outbreak cases. Nosocomial infections comprised one-third of all Saudi MERS cases; however, nosocomial infections occurred more frequently in outbreak than non-outbreak cases (pnosocomial infections have fuelled MERS outbreaks. Given that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a worldwide religious travel destination, localised outbreaks may have massive global implications and effective outbreak preventive measures are needed. PMID:28082362

  3. Building test data from real outbreaks for evaluating detection algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Texier, Gaetan; Jackson, Michael L; Siwe, Leonel; Meynard, Jean-Baptiste; Deparis, Xavier; Chaudet, Herve

    2017-01-01

    Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method-ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler). We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor) on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1) resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak signals.

  4. Building test data from real outbreaks for evaluating detection algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Texier, Gaetan; Jackson, Michael L.; Siwe, Leonel; Meynard, Jean-Baptiste; Deparis, Xavier; Chaudet, Herve

    2017-01-01

    Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method—ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler). We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor) on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1) resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak signals. PMID

  5. Wildfire, Ecosystems and Climate in Siberia: Developing Weather and Climate Data Sets for Use in Fire Weather and Bioclimatic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westberg, D. J.; Soja, A. J.; Stackhouse, P. W.

    2007-12-01

    A primary driving force of land cover change in boreal regions is fire, and extreme fire seasons are influenced by local weather and ultimately climate. It is predicted that fire frequency, area burned, fire severity, fire season length, and severe fire seasons will increase under current climate change scenarios. Already, there is evidence of an increased number of extreme fire seasons in Siberia that correlate with current warming. Our overall goal is to explore the degree to which current and future climate variability has and will affect wildfire-induced land cover change and to highlight the significance of the interaction between the biosphere and the climate system. Developing reliable weather and climate data provides the backbone of this research, which is to examine the relationships between weather, extreme fire events, and fire-induced land cover change in the changing climate of Siberia. The primary focus in this presentation is the description of the assembled weather and climate data sets and the verification efforts, followed by an example where the data set is used in a fire prediction application. Ground- based weather observations from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for the years 1983-2006, have been used to verify various modeled meteorological parameters from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) data. Specifically, we have extracted "Summary of the Day" and "Integrated Surface Hourly (ISH)" weather data from the NCDC. The ISH data has been processed to obtain hourly observation times for all stations in Siberia, including Mongolia and parts of northern China. A subset of these stations have been selected for validation purposes if they meet a criteria of having at least 75% of the possible reporting observations per day and 75% of the possible days in each month. GEOS-4 data interpolated to a 1x1 degree grid have compared well with the NCDC station data, covering the burning season from April through September

  6. CRADE OF SAND AND DUST STORM WEATHER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Niu Ruoyun; Tian Cuiying; Bi Baogui; Yang Keming; Wang Youheng; Tuo Ya; Ding Haifang; Zhang Tairen

    2011-01-01

    Background Sand and dust storm,as one of the main disastrous weathers that affect northern China,not only affect the people health and normal life,but cause the short-term climatic changes due to the direct and indirect radiation of the earth-atmosphere system through the dust floating in the sky.The sand end dust weather and its potential harm on the national economy,ecological environment,social activities and other aspects have aroused worldwide concern.

  7. Space Weather Gets Real—on Smartphones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiska, W. Kent; Crowley, Geoff; Oh, Seung Jun; Guhathakurta, Madhulika

    2010-10-01

    True to the saying that "a picture is worth a thousand words," society's affinity for visual images has driven innovative efforts to see space weather as it happens. The newest frontiers of these efforts involve applications, or apps, on cellular phones, allowing space weather researchers, operators, and teachers, as well as other interested parties, to have the ability to monitor conditions in real time with just the touch of a button.

  8. Key findings of the national weatherization evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G.

    1994-10-01

    In 1990, the U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a comprehensive evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program, the nation`s largest residential energy conservation program. The primary goal of the evaluation was to establish whether the Program meets the objectives of its enabling legislation and fulfills its mission statement, to reduce the heating and cooling costs for low-income families-particularly the elderly, persons with disabilities, and children by improving the energy-efficiency of their homes and ensuring their health and safety. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed a five-part study which produced a series of documents evaluating the Program. The objective of this document is to summarize the findings of the five-part National Weatherization Evaluation. The five studies were as follows: (1) Network Study-this study characterized the weatherization network`s leveraging, capabilities, procedures, staff, technologies, and innovations; (2) Resources and Population Study-this study profiled low-income weatherization resources, the weatherized population, and the population remaining to be served; (3) Multifamily Study-this study described the nature and extent of weatherization activities in larger multifamily buildings; (4) Single-family Study-this study estimated the national savings and cost- effectiveness of weatherizing single-family and small multifamily dwellings that use natural gas or electricity for space heating; (5) Fuel-Oil Study-this study estimated the savings and cost-effectiveness of weatherizing single-family homes, located in nine northeastern states, that use fuel oil for space heating. This paper provides a brief overview of each study`s purposes, research methods and most important findings.

  9. Dew architectures - Dew annouces the good weather

    OpenAIRE

    Beysens, Daniel; Broggini, Filippo; Milimouk-Melnytchouk, Iryna; Ouazzani, Jalil; Tixier, Nicolas

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Dew is a natural phenomenon that occurs under particular weather conditions (clear nocturnal sky, humid air, low wind) and on a surface specially designed for this purpose (high radiative cooling properties, special architectural design). Depending on the weather conditions and the surface characteristics, the water yield can give up to 0.7 litres per square meter and per night. Although the collection of rain water on roof turns out to be relatively simple, dew harves...

  10. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    monsoon and b) tropical cyclones. Basically the climate of India is domi- nated by the south west monsoon season which accounts for about 75% of the annual rainfall. The extreme weather events occur over India are: Floods, Droughts, Tropical Cyclones..., Heat Waves and Cold Waves, Storms Surges, Hail Storms, Thunderstorms, Dust Storms. Floods, droughts and tropical cyclones have specific significance a far as India is concerned. Floods and droughts are the two sides of the weather phenomena...

  11. Ongoing outbreak of invasive listeriosis, Germany, 2012 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruppitsch, Werner; Prager, Rita; Halbedel, Sven; Hyden, Patrick; Pietzka, Ariane; Huhulescu, Steliana; Lohr, Dorothee; Schönberger, Katharina; Aichinger, Elisabeth; Hauri, Anja; Stark, Klaus; Vygen, Sabine; Tietze, Erhard; Allerberger, Franz; Wilking, Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    Listeriosis patient isolates in Germany have shown a new identical pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) pattern since 2012 (n = 66). Almost all isolates (Listeria monocytogenes serotype 1/2a) belonged to cases living in southern Germany, indicating an outbreak with a so far unknown source. Case numbers in 2015 are high (n = 28). No outbreak cases outside Germany have been reported. Next generation sequencing revealed the unique cluster type CT1248 and confirmed the outbreak. Investigations into the source are ongoing.

  12. Consecutive salmonella outbreaks traced to the same bakery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, M R; Tromans, J P; Dexter, E L; Ribeiro, C D; Gardner, D

    1996-04-01

    Two consecutive community outbreaks of Salmonella enteritidis phage type 4 (PT4) traced to the same bakery occurred in Cardiff, Wales during August-September 1992. In the first outbreak, illness was associated with eating custard slices (odds ratio 23.8, 95% confidence interval 6.5-94.4, P sponge cake retained by a case and from two fresh cream cakes and four environmental swabs obtained at the bakery. This incident illustrates the hazard of widespread environmental contamination with salmonella and the need for thorough environmental cleansing for any premises implicated in an outbreak of food poisoning.

  13. Crisis prevention and management during SARS outbreak, Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quah, Stella R; Hin-Peng, Lee

    2004-02-01

    We discuss crisis prevention and management during the first 3 months of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Singapore. Four public health issues were considered: prevention measures, self-health evaluation, SARS knowledge, and appraisal of crisis management. We conducted telephone interviews with a representative sample of 1,201 adults, > or = 21 years of age. We found that sex, age, and attitude (anxiety and perception of open communication with authorities) were associated with practicing preventive measures. Analysis of Singapore's outbreak improves our understanding of the social dimensions of infectious disease outbreaks.

  14. Phylogenetic analysis of a transfusion-transmitted hepatitis A outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hettmann, Andrea; Juhász, Gabriella; Dencs, Ágnes; Tresó, Bálint; Rusvai, Erzsébet; Barabás, Éva; Takács, Mária

    2017-02-01

    A transfusion-associated hepatitis A outbreak was found in the first time in Hungary. The outbreak involved five cases. Parenteral transmission of hepatitis A is rare, but may occur during viraemia. Direct sequencing of nested PCR products was performed, and all the examined samples were identical in the VP1/2A region of the hepatitis A virus genome. HAV sequences found in recent years were compared and phylogenetic analysis showed that the strain which caused these cases is the same as that had spread in Hungary recently causing several hepatitis A outbreaks throughout the country.

  15. Topographic imprint on chemical weathering in deeply weathered soil-mantled landscapes (southern Brazil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, Veerle; Schoonejans, Jerome; Ameijeiras-Marino, Yolanda; Opfergelt, Sophie; Minella, Jean

    2017-04-01

    The regolith mantle is defined as the thin layer of unconsolidated material overlaying bedrock that contributes to shape the Earth's surface. The development of the regolith mantle in a landscape is the result of in-situ weathering, atmospheric input and downhill transport of weathering products. Bedrock weathering - the physical and chemical transformations of rock to soil - contributes to the vertical development of the regolith layer through downward propagation of the weathering front. Lateral transport of soil particles, aggregates and solutes by diffusive and concentrated particle and solute fluxes result in lateral redistribution of weathering products over the hillslope. In this study, we aim to expand the empirical basis on long-term soil evolution at the landscape scale through a detailed study of soil weathering in subtropical soils. Spatial variability in chemical mass fluxes and weathering intensity were studied along two toposequences with similar climate, lithology and vegetation but different slope morphology. This allowed us to isolate the topographic imprint on chemical weathering and soil development. The toposequences have convexo-concave slope morphology, and eight regolith profiles were analysed involving the flat upslope, steep midslope and flat toeslope part. Our data show a clear topographic imprint on soil development. Along hillslope, the chemical weathering intensity of the regolith profiles increases with distance from the crest. In contrast to the upslope positions, the soils in the basal concavities develop on in-situ and transported regolith. While the chemical weathering extent on the slope convexities (the upslope profiles) is similar for the steep and gentle toposequence, there is a clear difference in the rate of increase of the chemical weathering extent with distance from the crest. The increase of chemical weathering extent along hillslope is highest for the steep toposequence, suggesting that topography enhances soil particle

  16. Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

  17. Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.; Pappenberger, F.; Tanpipat, V.; Wang, X.

    2015-01-01

    The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5 latitude by 2-3 longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia,Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DCD1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRAs precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphereocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.

  18. Development of a Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.; Pappenberger, F.; Tanpipat, V.; Wang, X.

    2015-06-01

    The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC = 1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRA's precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere-ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.

  19. Operational Space Weather in USAF Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smithtro, C.; Quigley, S.

    2006-12-01

    Most education programs offering space weather courses are understandably and traditionally heavily weighted with theoretical space physics that is the basis for most of what is researched and modeled. While understanding the theory is a good and necessary grounding for anyone working the field of space weather, few military or commercial jobs employ such theory in real-time operations. The operations sites/centers are much more geared toward use of applied theory-resultant models, tools and products. To ensure its operations centers personnel, commanders, real-time system operators and other customers affected by the space environment are educated on available and soon-to-be operational space weather models and products, the USAF has developed applicable course/lecture material taught at various institutions to include the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) and the Joint Weather Training Complex (335th/TRS/OUA). Less frequent training of operational space weather is available via other venues that will be discussed, and associated course material is also being developed for potential use at the National Security Space Institute (NSSI). This presentation provides an overview of the programs, locations, courses and material developed and/or taught by or for USAF personnel dealing with operational space weather. It also provides general information on student research project results that may be used in operational support, along with observations regarding logistical and professional benefits of teaching such non-theoretical/non-traditional material.

  20. Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shu-Chieh; Luna, Rocio; Johnson, Walter W.

    2013-01-01

    Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

  1. CCMC: Serving research and space weather communities with unique space weather services, innovative tools and resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Maddox, Marlo

    2015-04-01

    With the addition of Space Weather Research Center (a sub-team within CCMC) in 2010 to address NASA’s own space weather needs, CCMC has become a unique entity that not only facilitates research through providing access to the state-of-the-art space science and space weather models, but also plays a critical role in providing unique space weather services to NASA robotic missions, developing innovative tools and transitioning research to operations via user feedback. With scientists, forecasters and software developers working together within one team, through close and direct connection with space weather customers and trusted relationship with model developers, CCMC is flexible, nimble and effective to meet customer needs. In this presentation, we highlight a few unique aspects of CCMC/SWRC’s space weather services, such as addressing space weather throughout the solar system, pushing the frontier of space weather forecasting via the ensemble approach, providing direct personnel and tool support for spacecraft anomaly resolution, prompting development of multi-purpose tools and knowledge bases, and educating and engaging the next generation of space weather scientists.

  2. The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. [Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States); Witherspoon, M.J. [National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States); Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1992-05-01

    This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy`s national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

  3. The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. (Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States)); Witherspoon, M.J. (National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States)); Brown, M.A. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States))

    1992-05-01

    This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy's national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

  4. Cost of a measles outbreak in a remote island economy: 2014 Federated States of Micronesia measles outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Jamison; Tippins, Ashley; Nyaku, Mawuli; Eckert, Maribeth; Helgenberger, Louisa; Underwood, J Michael

    2017-10-13

    After 20years with no reported measles cases, on May 15, 2014 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was notified of two cases testing positive for measles-specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). Under the Compact of Free Association, FSM receives immunization funding and technical support from the United States (US) domestic vaccination program managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In a collaborative effort, public health officials and volunteers from FSM and the US government worked to respond and contain the measles outbreak through an emergency mass vaccination campaign, contact tracing, and other outbreak investigation activities. Contributions were also made by United Nations Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) and World Health Organization (WHO). Total costs incurred as a result of the outbreak were nearly $4,000,000; approximately $10,000 per case. Direct medical costs (≈$141,000) were incurred in the treatment of those individuals infected, as well as lost productivity of the infected and informal caregivers (≈$250,000) and costs to contain the outbreak (≈$3.5 million). We assessed the economic burden of the 2014 measles outbreak to FSM, as well as the economic responsibilities of the US. Although the US paid the majority of total costs of the outbreak (≈67%), examining each country's costs relative to their respective economy illustrates a far greater burden to FSM. We demonstrate that while FSM was heavily assisted by the US in responding to the 2014 Measles Outbreak, the outbreak significantly impacted their economy. FSM's economic burden from the outbreak is approximately equivalent to their entire 2016 Fiscal Year budget dedicated to education. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Economic Costs of Measles Outbreak in the Netherlands, 2013–2014

    OpenAIRE

    Suijkerbuijk, A.W.; Woudenberg, T.; Hahne, S.J.; Lochlainn, L.N.; de Melker, H. E.; Ruijs, W.L.M.; Lugner, A.K.

    2015-01-01

    In 2013 and 2014, the Netherlands experienced a measles outbreak in orthodox Protestant communities with low measles-mumps-rubella vaccination coverage. Assessing total outbreak costs is needed for public health outbreak preparedness and control. Total costs of this outbreak were an estimated $4.7 million.

  6. Epidemiology of restaurant-associated foodborne disease outbreaks, United States, 1998-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelo, K M; Nisler, A L; Hall, A J; Brown, L G; Gould, L H

    2017-02-01

    Although contamination of food can occur at any point from farm to table, restaurant food workers are a common source of foodborne illness. We describe the characteristics of restaurant-associated foodborne disease outbreaks and explore the role of food workers by analysing outbreaks associated with restaurants from 1998 to 2013 reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System. We identified 9788 restaurant-associated outbreaks. The median annual number of outbreaks was 620 (interquartile range 618-629). In 3072 outbreaks with a single confirmed aetiology reported, norovirus caused the largest number of outbreaks (1425, 46%). Of outbreaks with a single food reported and a confirmed aetiology, fish (254 outbreaks, 34%) was most commonly implicated, and these outbreaks were commonly caused by scombroid toxin (219 outbreaks, 86% of fish outbreaks). Most outbreaks (79%) occurred at sit-down establishments. The most commonly reported contributing factors were those related to food handling and preparation practices in the restaurant (2955 outbreaks, 61%). Food workers contributed to 2415 (25%) outbreaks. Knowledge of the foods, aetiologies, and contributing factors that result in foodborne disease restaurant outbreaks can help guide efforts to prevent foodborne illness.

  7. Economic Costs of Measles Outbreak in the Netherlands, 2013-2014

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suijkerbuijk, A.W.; Woudenberg, T.; Hahne, S.J.; Lochlainn, L.N.; Melker, H.E. de; Ruijs, W.L.M.; Lugner, A.K.

    2015-01-01

    In 2013 and 2014, the Netherlands experienced a measles outbreak in orthodox Protestant communities with low measles-mumps-rubella vaccination coverage. Assessing total outbreak costs is needed for public health outbreak preparedness and control. Total costs of this outbreak were an estimated $4.7 m

  8. Economic Costs of Measles Outbreak in the Netherlands, 2013-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suijkerbuijk, Anita W M; Woudenberg, Tom; Hahné, Susan J M; Nic Lochlainn, Laura; de Melker, Hester E; Ruijs, Wilhelmina L M; Lugnér, Anna K

    2015-11-01

    In 2013 and 2014, the Netherlands experienced a measles outbreak in orthodox Protestant communities with low measles-mumps-rubella vaccination coverage. Assessing total outbreak costs is needed for public health outbreak preparedness and control. Total costs of this outbreak were an estimated $4.7 million.

  9. The first outbreak of eastern equine encephalitis in Vermont: outbreak description and phylogenetic relationships of the virus isolate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kali D Saxton-Shaw

    Full Text Available The first known outbreak of eastern equine encephalitis (EEE in Vermont occurred on an emu farm in Rutland County in 2011. The first isolation of EEE virus (EEEV in Vermont (VT11 was during this outbreak. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that VT11 was most closely related to FL01, a strain from Florida isolated in 2001, which is both geographically and temporally distinct from VT11. EEEV RNA was not detected in any of the 3,905 mosquito specimens tested, and the specific vectors associated with this outbreak are undetermined.

  10. Space weather in the EU’s FP7 Space Theme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiarini Paola

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Technological infrastructures in space and on ground provide services on which modern society and economies rely. Space weather related research is funded under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP7 of the European Union in response to the need of protecting such critical infrastructures from the damage which could be caused by extreme space weather events. The calls for proposals published under the topic “Security of space assets from space weather events” of the FP7 Space Theme aimed to improve forecasts and predictions of disruptive space weather events as well as identify best practices to limit the impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructures and their data provision. Space weather related work was also funded under the topic “Exploitation of space science and exploration data”, which aims to add value to space missions and Earth-based observations by contributing to the effective scientific exploitation of collected data. Since 2007 a total of 20 collaborative projects have been funded, covering a variety of physical phenomena associated with space weather, from ionospheric disturbances and scintillation, to geomagnetically induced currents at Earth’s surface, to coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles. This article provides an overview of the funded projects, touching upon some results and referring to specific websites for a more exhaustive description of the projects’ outcomes.

  11. A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Freitas Ribeiro

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP, Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

  12. A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Ana Freitas; Tengan, Ciléa; Sato, Helena Keico; Spinola, Roberta; Mascheretti, Melissa; França, Ana Cecilia Costa; Port-Carvalho, Marcio; Pereira, Mariza; Souza, Renato Pereira de; Amaku, Marcos; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-04-01

    We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

  13. Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: Results of a National Academies Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friday, E.; Barron, E. J.; Elfring, C.; Geller, L.

    2002-12-01

    When a major East Coast snowstorm was forecast during the winter of 2001, people began preparing - both the public and the decision-makers responsible for public services. There was an air of urgency, heightened because just the previous year the region had been hit hard by a storm of unpredicted strength. But this time, the storm never materialized and people were left wondering what went "wrong" with the forecast. Did something go wrong or did forecasters just fail to communicate their information in an effective way? Did they convey a sense of the likelihood of the event and keep people up to date as information changed? In the summer of 2001, the National Academies' Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate hosted a workshop designed to explore the communication of uncertainty in weather and climate information. Workshop participants examined five case studies that were chosen to illustrate a range of forecast timescales and certainty levels. The cases were: Red River Flood, Grand Forks, April 1997; East Coast Winter Storm, March 2001; Oklahoma-Kansas Tornado Outbreak, May 3, 1999; El Nino 1997-1998, and Climate Change Science, a report issued in 2001. In each of these cases, participants examined who said what, when, to whom, how, and with what effect. The last two cases specifically address climate-related topics. This paper summarizes the final workshop report (Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: Summary of a Workshop, NRC 2002), including an overview of the five cases and lessons learned about communicating uncertainties in weather and climate forecasts. Among other findings, the report stresses that communication and appropriate dissemination of information, including information about uncertainty in the forecasts and the forecaster's confidence in the product, should be an integral, ongoing part of the forecasting process, not an afterthought. Explaining uncertainty should be an integral part of what weather and climate

  14. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures.

  15. The history of dengue outbreaks in the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brathwaite Dick, Olivia; San Martín, José L; Montoya, Romeo H; del Diego, Jorge; Zambrano, Betzana; Dayan, Gustavo H

    2012-10-01

    Dengue is a viral disease usually transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Dengue outbreaks in the Americas reported in medical literature and to the Pan American Health Organization are described. The outbreak history from 1600 to 2010 was categorized into four phases: Introduction of dengue in the Americas (1600-1946); Continental plan for the eradication of the Ae. aegypti (1947-1970) marked by a successful eradication of the mosquito in 18 continental countries by 1962; Ae. aegypti reinfestation (1971-1999) caused by the failure of the mosquito eradication program; Increased dispersion of Ae. aegypti and dengue virus circulation (2000-2010) characterized by a marked increase in the number of outbreaks. During 2010 > 1.7 million dengue cases were reported, with 50,235 severe cases and 1,185 deaths. A dramatic increase in the number of outbreaks has been reported in recent years. Urgent global action is needed to avoid further disease spread.

  16. Mitigating measles outbreaks in West Africa post-Ebola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truelove, Shaun A; Moss, William J; Lessler, Justin

    2015-01-01

    The Ebola outbreak in 2014-2015 devastated the populations, economies and healthcare systems of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. With this devastation comes the impending threat of outbreaks of other infectious diseases like measles. Strategies for mitigating these risks must include both prevention, through vaccination, and case detection and management, focused on surveillance, diagnosis and appropriate clinical care and case management. With the high transmissibility of measles virus, small-scale reactive vaccinations will be essential to extinguish focal outbreaks, while national vaccination campaigns are needed to guarantee vaccination coverage targets are reached in the long term. Rapid and multifaceted strategies should carefully navigate challenges present in the wake of Ebola, while also taking advantage of current Ebola-related activities and international attention. Above all, resources and focus currently aimed at these countries must be utilized to build up the deficit in infrastructure and healthcare systems that contributed to the extent of the Ebola outbreak.

  17. An isolated outbreak of diphtheria in South Africa, 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahomed, S; Archary, M; Mutevedzi, P; Mahabeer, Y; Govender, P; Ntshoe, G; Kuhn, W; Thomas, J; Olowolagba, A; Blumberg, L; McCarthy, K; Mlisana, K; DU Plessis, M; VON Gottberg, A; Moodley, P

    2017-07-01

    An outbreak of respiratory diphtheria occurred in two health districts in the province of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa in 2015. A multidisciplinary outbreak response team was involved in the investigation and management of the outbreak. Fifteen cases of diphtheria were identified, with ages ranging from 4 to 41 years. Of the 12 cases that were under the age of 18 years, 9 (75%) were not fully immunized for diphtheria. The case fatality was 27%. Ninety-three household contacts, 981 school or work contacts and 595 healthcare worker contacts were identified and given prophylaxis against Corynebacterium diphtheriae infection. A targeted vaccination campaign for children aged 6-15 years was carried out at schools in the two districts. The outbreak highlighted the need to improve diphtheria vaccination coverage in the province and to investigate the feasibility of offering diphtheria vaccines to healthcare workers.

  18. Molecular epidemiological characteristics of norovirus gastroenteritis outbreaks in Guangdong province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUI LI; LING FANG; LI RONG ZOU; CHANG WEN KE; PING HUANG; JI CHENG HUANG

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to study the molecular epidemiological characteristics of norovirus gastroenteritis outbreaks in Guangdong. During October 2003 and December 2004, fecal and anal swabs specimens collected from 13 outbreaks of non-bacterial gastroenteritis were tested for norovirus. Specimens were detected by RT-PCR and sequenced. The descriptive data were also collected. Eight in 13 outbreaks of gastroenteritis were positive for norovirus. All of 8 virus strains were identified as genogroup Ⅱ but belonged to 3 genotypes. Six strains were G Ⅱ-4 genotype. Norovirus is a major cause of outbreaks of nonbacterial gastroenteritis in Guangdong province and has a wide distribution. The illness happended from late autumn to winter. The prevalent strains were genogroup Ⅱ virus.

  19. An outbreak of Streptococcus pneumoniae in an Italian nursing home.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Papalia

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Streptococcus pneumoniae is the main cause of community-acquired pneumonia worldwide; pneumonia occurs sporadically in most cases, but rare outbreaks have been reported. We  describe an outbreak occurred in a 21-guests nursing home for elders in Aosta (Italy; outbreak occurred in april 2014 over a 2 weeks period, resulting in 12 out 20 guests affected (all with high fever and respiratory symptoms, two deaths (at home, nine patients referred  to Hospital Emergency Room, and eight admissions. Urinary streptococcus antigen was positive in seven out of eight patient tested. None of the nursing home guests were vaccinated against Streptococcus pneumoniaeThe Hospital Medical Direction and Public Health Service gave support and adopted strategies to contain the outbreak spread.We underline the need for pneumococcal vaccination in nursing homes/ Long-term care facilities; accurate check of hygiene behaviours in those setting is also mandatory.   

  20. Impact of climate change on larch budmoth cyclic outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyengar, Sudharsana V.; Balakrishnan, Janaki; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-06-01

    Periodic outbreaks of the larch budmoth Zeiraphera diniana population (and the massive forest defoliation they engender) have been recorded in the Alps over the centuries and are known for their remarkable regularity. But these have been conspicuously absent since 1981. On the other hand, budmoth outbreaks have been historically unknown in the larches of the Carpathian Tatra mountains. To resolve this puzzle, we propose here a model which includes the influence of climate and explains both the 8–9 year periodicity in the budmoth cycle and the variations from this, as well as the absence of cycles. We successfully capture the observed trend of relative frequencies of outbreaks, reproducing the dominant periodicities seen. We contend that the apparent collapse of the cycle in 1981 is due to changing climatic conditions following a tipping point and propose the recurrence of the cycle with a changed periodicity of 40 years – the next outbreak could occur in 2021. Our model also predicts longer cycles.