WorldWideScience

Sample records for weather induces outbreaks

  1. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  2. Analysis and Modeling of Influenza Outbreaks as Driven by Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrastarson, H. T.; Teixeira, J.; Serman, E. A.; Parekh, A.; Yeo, E.

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal influenza outbreaks are a major source of illness, mortality and economic burden worldwide. Attributing what drives the seasonality of the outbreaks is still an unsettled problem. But in temperate regions absolute humidity conditions are a strong candidate (Shaman et al., 2010) and some studies have associated temperature conditions with influenza outbreaks. We use humidity and temperature data from NASA's AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder) instrument as well as data for influenza incidence in the US and South Africa to explore the connection between weather and influenza seasonality at different spatial scales. We also incorporate influenza surveillance data, satellite data and humidity forecasts into a numerical epidemiological prediction system. Our results give support for the role of local weather conditions as drivers of the seasonality of influenza in temperate regions. This can have implications for public health efforts where forecasting of the timing and intensity of influenza outbreaks has a great potential role (e.g., aiding management and organization of vaccines, drugs and other resources).

  3. Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Britch, Seth C.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Reynolds, Curt A.; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

    2014-01-01

    We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused,10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

  4. Recent weather extremes and impacts on agricultural production and vector-borne disease outbreak patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assaf Anyamba

    Full Text Available We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

  5. Salt-Induced Physical Weathering of Stone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiro, M.; Ruiz-Agudo, E.; Rodriguez-Navarro, C.

    2010-12-01

    Salt weathering is recognized as an important mechanism that contributes to the modeling and shaping of the earth’s surface, in a range of environments spanning from the Sahara desert to Antarctica. It also contributes to the degradation and loss of cultural heritage, particularly carved stone and historic buildings. Soluble salts have recently been suggested to contribute to the shaping of rock outcrops on Mars and are being identified in other planetary bodies such as the moons of Jupiter (Europa and IO)1. Soluble salts such as sulfates, nitrates, chlorides and carbonates of alkali and alkali earth metals can crystallize within the porous system of rocks and building stones, exerting sufficient pressure against the pore walls to fracture the substrate. This physical damage results in increased porosity, thus providing a higher surface area for salt-enhanced chemical weathering. To better understand how salt-induced physical weathering occurs, we have studied the crystallization of the particularly damaging salt, sodium sulfate2, in a model system (a sintered porous glass of controlled porosity and pore size). For this elusive task of studying sub-surface crystallization in pores, we combined a variety of instruments to identify which phases crystallized during evaporation and calculated the supersaturation and associated crystallization pressure that caused damage. The heat of crystallization was measured using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), providing the timing of crystallization events and phase transitions3, while the evaporation rate was recorded using thermal gravimetry (TG). These methods enabled calculation of the sodium sulfate concentration in solution at every point during evaporation. Two-dimensional X-ray diffraction (2D-XRD) performs synchrotron-like experiments in a normal lab by using a Molybdenum X-ray source (more than 5 times more penetrative than conventional Copper source). Using this method, we determined that the first phase to

  6. Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-21

    extracted from the USDA Production, Supply, and Distribution Online (PSD) electronic database (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/) for the focal regions...Precipitation Climatology Project [31] (Table 1). Various publicly-available databases were surveyed to develop maps of outbreak locations of dengue, Rift...rates of leaf photosynthesis and severely reduced the development of floral buds thus reducing yields [33]. Direct losses from the drought approached $10

  7. Weathering the storm: how lodgepole pine trees survive mountain pine beetle outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbilgin, Nadir; Cale, Jonathan A; Hussain, Altaf; Ishangulyyeva, Guncha; Klutsch, Jennifer G; Najar, Ahmed; Zhao, Shiyang

    2017-06-01

    Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks in western North America killed millions of lodgepole pine trees, leaving few survivors. However, the mechanism underlying the ability of trees to survive bark beetle outbreaks is unknown, but likely involve phytochemicals such as monoterpenes and fatty acids that can drive beetle aggregation and colonization on their hosts. Thus, we conducted a field survey of beetle-resistant lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees to retrospectively deduce whether these phytochemicals underlie their survival by comparing their chemistry to that of non-attacked trees in the same stands. We also compared beetle attack characteristics between resistant and beetle-killed trees. Beetle-killed trees had more beetle attacks and longer ovipositional galleries than resistant trees, which also lacked the larval establishment found in beetle-killed trees. Resistant trees contained high amounts of toxic and attraction-inhibitive compounds and low amounts of pheromone-precursor and synergist compounds. During beetle host aggregation and colonization, these compounds likely served three critical roles in tree survival. First, low amounts of pheromone-precursor (α-pinene) and synergist (mycrene, terpinolene) compounds reduced or prevented beetles from attracting conspecifics to residual trees. Second, high amounts of 4-allyanisole further inhibited beetle attraction to its pheromone. Finally, high amounts of toxic limonene, 3-carene, 4-allyanisole, α-linolenic acid, and linoleic acid inhibited beetle gallery establishment and oviposition. We conclude that the variation of chemotypic expression of local plant populations can have profound ecological consequences including survival during insect outbreaks.

  8. Forecasting challenges during the severe weather outbreak in Central Europe on 25 June 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Púčik, Tomáš; Francová, Martina; Rýva, David; Kolář, Miroslav; Ronge, Lukáš

    2011-06-01

    On 25 June 2008, severe thunderstorms caused widespread damage and two fatalities in the Czech Republic. Significant features of the storms included numerous downbursts on a squall line that exhibited a bow echo reflectivity pattern, with sustained wind gusts over 32 m/s at several reporting stations. Moreover, a tornado and several downbursts of F2 intensity occurred within the convective system, collocated with the development of mesovortices within the larger scale bow echo. The extent of the event was sufficient to call it a derecho, as the windstorm had affected Eastern Germany, Southern Poland, Slovakia, Austria and Northern Hungary as well. Ahead of the squall line, several well-organized isolated cells occurred, exhibiting supercellular characteristics, both from a radar and visual perspective. These storms produced large hail and also isolated severe wind gusts. This paper deals mostly with the forecasting challenges that were experienced by the meteorologist on duty during the evolution of this convective scenario. The main challenge of the day was to identify the region that would be most affected by severe convection, especially as the numerical weather prediction failed to anticipate the extent and the progress of the derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Convective storms developed in an environment conducive to severe thunderstorms, with strong wind shear confined mostly to the lower half of the troposphere. These developments also were strongly influenced by mesoscale factors, especially a mesolow centered over Austria and its trough stretching to Eastern Bohemia. The paper demonstrates how careful mesoscale analysis could prove useful in dealing with such convective situations. Remote-sensing methods are also shown to be useful in such situations, especially when they can offer sufficient lead time to issue a warning, which is not always the case.

  9. Using Satellite Imagery to Identify Tornado Damage Tracks and Recovery from the April 27, 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Tony A.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Bell, Jordan R.

    2014-01-01

    Emergency response to natural disasters requires coordination between multiple local, state, and federal agencies. Single, relatively weak tornado events may require comparatively simple response efforts; but larger "outbreak" events with multiple strong, long-track tornadoes can benefit from additional tools to help expedite these efforts. Meteorologists from NOAA's National Weather Service conduct field surveys to map tornado tracks, assess damage, and determine the tornado intensity following each event. Moderate and high resolution satellite imagery can support these surveys by providing a high-level view of the affected areas. Satellite imagery could then be used to target areas for immediate survey or to corroborate the results of the survey after it is completed. In this study, the feasibility of using satellite imagery to identify tornado damage tracks was determined by comparing the characteristics of tracks observed from low-earth orbit to tracks assessed during the official NWS storm survey process. Of the 68 NWS confirmed centerlines, 24 tracks (35.3%) could be distinguished from other surface features using satellite imagery. Within each EF category, 0% of EF-0, 3% of EF-1, 50% of EF-2, 77.7% of EF-3, 87.5% of EF-4 and 100% of EF-5 tornadoes were detected. It was shown that satellite data can be used to identify tornado damage tracks in MODIS and ASTER NDVI imagery, where damage to vegetation creates a sharp drop in values though the minimum EF-category which can be detected is dependent upon the type of sensor used and underlying vegetation. Near-real time data from moderate resolution sensors compare favorably to field surveys after the event and suggest that the data can provide some value in the assessment process.

  10. Population density and phenology of Tetranychus urticae Koch (Acari: Tetranychidae) is linked to sulfur-induced outbreaks of this pest

    Science.gov (United States)

    The twospotted spider mite, Tetranychus urticae Koch, is a worldwide pest of numerous agronomic and horticultural plants. Sulfur fungicides are known to induce outbreaks of this pest on several crops, although mechanisms associated with sulfur-induced mite outbreaks are largely unknown. Studies were...

  11. Drug-induced pulmonary arterial hypertension: a recent outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gérald Simonneau

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH is a rare disorder characterised by progressive obliteration of the pulmonary microvasculature resulting in elevated pulmonary vascular resistance and premature death. According to the current classification PAH can be associated with exposure to certain drugs or toxins, particularly to appetite suppressant intake drugs, such as aminorex, fenfluramine derivatives and benfluorex. These drugs have been confirmed to be risk factors for PAH and were withdrawn from the market. The supposed mechanism is an increase in serotonin levels, which was demonstrated to act as a growth factor for the pulmonary artery smooth muscle cells. Amphetamines, phentermine and mazindol were less frequently used, but are considered possible risk factors, for PAH. Dasatinib, dual Src/Abl kinase inhibitor, used in the treatment of chronic myelogenous leukaemia was associated with cases of severe PAH, potentially in part reversible after dasatinib withdrawal. Recently, several studies have raised the issue of potential endothelial dysfunction that could be induced by interferon, and a few cases of PAH have been reported with interferon therapy. PAH remains a rare complication of these drugs, suggesting possible individual susceptibility, and further studies are needed to identify patients at risk of drug-induced PAH.

  12. Record-low primary productivity and high plant damage in the Nordic Arctic Region in 2012 caused by multiple weather events and pest outbreaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjerke, Jarle W; Jepsen, Jane U; Lovibond, Sarah; Tømmervik, Hans; Rune Karlsen, Stein; Arild Høgda, Kjell; Malnes, Eirik; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun

    2014-01-01

    The release of cold temperature constraints on photosynthesis has led to increased productivity (greening) in significant parts (32–39%) of the Arctic, but much of the Arctic shows stable (57–64%) or reduced productivity (browning, <4%). Summer drought and wildfires are the best-documented drivers causing browning of continental areas, but factors dampening the greening effect of more maritime regions have remained elusive. Here we show how multiple anomalous weather events severely affected the terrestrial productivity during one water year (October 2011–September 2012) in a maritime region north of the Arctic Circle, the Nordic Arctic Region, and contributed to the lowest mean vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) recorded this century. Procedures for field data sampling were designed during or shortly after the events in order to assess both the variability in effects and the maximum effects of the stressors. Outbreaks of insect and fungal pests also contributed to low greenness. Vegetation greenness in 2012 was 6.8% lower than the 2000–11 average and 58% lower in the worst affected areas that were under multiple stressors. These results indicate the importance of events (some being mostly neglected in climate change effect studies and monitoring) for primary productivity in a high-latitude maritime region, and highlight the importance of monitoring plant damage in the field and including frequencies of stress events in models of carbon economy and ecosystem change in the Arctic. Fourteen weather events and anomalies and 32 hypothesized impacts on plant productivity are summarized as an aid for directing future research. (letter)

  13. Direct radiative effects induced by intense desert dust outbreaks over the broader Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkikas, Antonis; Obiso, Vincenzo; Vendrell, Lluis; Basart, Sara; Jorba, Oriol; Pérez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Hatzianastassiou, Nikos; Gassó, Santiago; Baldasano, Jose Maria

    2016-04-01

    over desert areas. The mean regional NET DREs, under clear-sky conditions, vary between -10 to 2, -3 to 25, -35 to 3 and -22 to 3 Wm-2 for TOA, ATMAB, SURF and NETSURF, respectively. According to our results, dust outbreaks can cause a decrease of temperature at 2 meters by 4 °C during daytime while an increase of a similar magnitude is found at night. Moreover, negative feedbacks on dust emissions and aerosol optical depth are observed when dust-radiation interactions are activated. Our analysis clearly shows that taking into account the dust radiative effects in numerical simulations (RADON) the model's ability to reproduce the temperature fields as well as the downwelling radiation fluxes at the surface is improved. The former is confirmed by the evaluation of the model's outputs against ERA-Interim reanalyses datasets and weather stations observations (Integrated Surface Database, ISD) while the latter is justified through the comparison of model's downwelling SW/LW radiation fluxes at the surface with ground measurements from 6 Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) stations. A similar analysis is also attempted for the dust aerosol optical depth at 550 nm using the AERONET ground retrievals as reference measurements.

  14. Forecasting Space Weather-Induced GPS Performance Degradation Using Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filjar, R.; Filic, M.; Milinkovic, F.

    2017-12-01

    Space weather and ionospheric dynamics have a profound effect on positioning performance of the Global Satellite Navigation System (GNSS). However, the quantification of that effect is still the subject of scientific activities around the world. In the latest contribution to the understanding of the space weather and ionospheric effects on satellite-based positioning performance, we conducted a study of several candidates for forecasting method for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. First, a 5-days set of experimentally collected data was established, encompassing the space weather and ionospheric activity indices (including: the readings of the Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) monitors, components of geomagnetic field strength, global Kp index, Dst index, GPS-derived Total Electron Content (TEC) samples, standard deviation of TEC samples, and sunspot number) and observations of GPS positioning error components (northing, easting, and height positioning error) derived from the Adriatic Sea IGS reference stations' RINEX raw pseudorange files in quiet space weather periods. This data set was split into the training and test sub-sets. Then, a selected set of supervised machine learning methods based on Random Forest was applied to the experimentally collected data set in order to establish the appropriate regional (the Adriatic Sea) forecasting models for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. The forecasting models were developed in the R/rattle statistical programming environment. The forecasting quality of the regional forecasting models developed was assessed, and the conclusions drawn on the advantages and shortcomings of the regional forecasting models for space weather-caused GNSS positioning performance deterioration.

  15. Study on Mineral Weathering induced by Soil Ecosystem Engineers

    OpenAIRE

    阿部, 進

    2016-01-01

    研究成果の概要(和文):本研究ではまず、土壌動物による鉱物風化作用に関する研究の現状と課題を明らかにするため、既往の研究のレビューを行った。また、ナイジェリア産のシロアリ塚土壌の試料を用いて、対照土壌との鉱物組成の比較を行なった結果、土壌動物が鉱物風化に及ぼす影響は小さいため、野外調査でその影響を定量的に調査することが難しいことを確認した。他方、熱帯の強風下土壌におけるシロアリの営巣活動に起因する遊離酸化鉱物の移動・集積が土壌生成過程で無視できない影響を及ぼすことを示唆した。この他、インドネシアの火山灰土壌地帯において、土地利用や管理主方が土壌動物相の変遷と非晶質鉱物の含有量に変化をもたらすことを明らかにした。研究成果の概要(英文):First of all, the present study reviewed the literature on mineral weathering by soil fauna to highlight the current status and future challenges in this study topic. Then, the...

  16. On the dual nature of lichen-induced rock surface weathering in contrasting micro-environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, Joana; Gonçalves, João; Oliveira, Cláudia; Favero-Longo, Sergio E; Paz-Bermúdez, Graciela; Almeida, Rubim; Prieto, Beatriz

    2016-10-01

    Contradictory evidence from biogeomorphological studies has increased the debate on the extent of lichen contribution to differential rock surface weathering in both natural and cultural settings. This study, undertaken in Côa Valley Archaeological Park, aimed at evaluating the effect of rock surface orientation on the weathering ability of dominant lichens. Hyphal penetration and oxalate formation at the lichen-rock interface were evaluated as proxies of physical and chemical weathering, respectively. A new protocol of pixel-based supervised image classification for the analysis of periodic acid-Schiff stained cross-sections of colonized schist revealed that hyphal spread of individual species was not influenced by surface orientation. However, hyphal spread was significantly higher in species dominant on northwest facing surfaces. An apparently opposite effect was noticed in terms of calcium oxalate accumulation at the lichen-rock interface; it was detected by Raman spectroscopy and complementary X-ray microdiffraction on southeast facing surfaces only. These results suggest that lichen-induced physical weathering may be most severe on northwest facing surfaces by means of an indirect effect of surface orientation on species abundance, and thus dependent on the species, whereas lichen-induced chemical weathering is apparently higher on southeast facing surfaces and dependent on micro-environmental conditions, giving only weak support to the hypothesis that lichens are responsible for the currently observed pattern of rock-art distribution in Côa Valley. Assumptions about the drivers of open-air rock-art distribution patterns elsewhere should also consider the micro-environmental controls of lichen-induced weathering, to avoid biased measures of lichen contribution to rock-art deterioration. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  17. Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sijun; Chen, Jiaping; Wang, Jianming; Wu, Zhuchao; Wu, Weihua; Xu, Zhiwei; Hu, Wenbiao; Xu, Fei; Tong, Shilu; Shen, Hongbing

    2017-10-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in China and an accurate prediction of epidemic can improve the effectiveness of HFMD control. This study aims to develop a weather-based forecasting model for HFMD using the information on climatic variables and HFMD surveillance in Nanjing, China. Daily data on HFMD cases and meteorological variables between 2010 and 2015 were acquired from the Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively. A multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed and validated by dividing HFMD infection data into two datasets: the data from 2010 to 2013 were used to construct a model and those from 2014 to 2015 were used to validate it. Moreover, we used weekly prediction for the data between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2015 and leave-1-week-out prediction was used to validate the performance of model prediction. SARIMA (2,0,0)52 associated with the average temperature at lag of 1 week appeared to be the best model (R 2 = 0.936, BIC = 8.465), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. In the validation of the constructed model, the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well between 2014 and 2015. There was a high agreement rate between the predicted values and the observed values (sensitivity 80%, specificity 96.63%). This study suggests that the SARIMA model with average temperature could be used as an important tool for early detection and prediction of HFMD outbreaks in Nanjing, China.

  18. Natural disaster-induced environmental migration from the Indian subcontinent resulting in malaria outbreak in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavrouli, Maria; Mavroulis, Spyridon; Piperaki, Evangelia-Theofano; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos; Tsakris, Athanassios

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hydrometeorological disasters such as floods and hurricanes can severely damage human life, natural and built environment and economic development. Consequently, they can result in environmental migration (EM). In case of infectious disease (ID) outbreaks during the post-disaster period and subsequent EM, environmental refugees from endemic regions serve as ID carriers to their new residence sites altering the spatial ID distribution and incidence. The continuous massive influx of environmental refugees from malaria endemic regions to non-endemic ones can build up a parasite reservoir among naive host populations. Initially, serum specimens were collected in 2012 from asymptomatic individuals, 298 Greeks and 721 immigrants residing in areas of documented local malaria transmission in Laconia (Southern Peloponnese) and in Eastern Attica, Greece. Sera were tested for antibodies against Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum using the Malaria-Ab ELISA (IBL International GMBH, Hamburg, Germany). Taking into account that Greece has been declared malaria free by the WHO since 1974, we conducted an extensive and systematic literature review related to natural disasters leading among others to increased malaria risk in Indian Subcontinent and respective forced EM in order to detect relative possible causes of reintroduction and localized outbreaks of malaria in Greece. Regarding the country of origin, information was available for 685 (95%) of the 721 immigrants. Of the 678 immigrants from Indian Subcontinent, 627 (92.5%) originated from Pakistan, 24 (3.53%) Afghanistan, 24 (3.53%) India and 3 (0.44%) Bangladesh. Of the 721 immigrants, 582 and 124 resided in Laconia and Eastern Attica respectively. Seventy-one immigrants residing in Laconia and 14 in Eastern Attica were positive for antimalarial antibodies, while none of the 298 Greeks residing in Laconia (N=248) and Attica (N=50) was found positive. Based on already published scientific data, Pakistan has been exposed

  19. Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, Shigeru; Kataoka, Ryuho; Pulkkinen, Antti; Watari, Shinichi

    2016-01-01

    Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

  20. Case report of cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis after chemoradiotherapy with cisplatin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kindts, Isabelle; Stellamans, Karin; Planckaert, Nikie; Goethals, Laurence; Bonny, Michiel

    2014-01-01

    The radiation recall reaction (RRR) is an inflammatory reaction that occurs in previously irradiated areas. The phenomenon is probably due to an idiosyncratic hypersensitivity reaction, in which a second agent can recall the inflammatory reaction. This case report documents a cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis (RRD). We observed a severe RRD in a patient after chemoradiotherapy treatment with cisplatin for a nasopharyngeal carcinoma, precipitated by cold temperatures, which developed 9 days after completion of therapy. In the medical literature, RRD following extreme cold temperatures seems to be a peculiar event. Until further information on the interaction is available, future studies on combined chemotherapy with cisplatin should be carefully monitored and any side effects clearly documented. This case suggests that environmental conditions may play a contributing role in the development of RRD. This case also implies that neither fraction size nor total radiation dose is a determining factor in the development of the dermatologic reaction. (orig.) [de

  1. Case report of cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis after chemoradiotherapy with cisplatin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindts, Isabelle; Stellamans, Karin; Planckaert, Nikie; Goethals, Laurence [AZ Groeninge Hospital, Department of Radiation Oncology, Kortrijk (Belgium); Bonny, Michiel [AZ Groeninge Hospital, Department of Dermatology, Kortrijk (Belgium)

    2014-08-15

    The radiation recall reaction (RRR) is an inflammatory reaction that occurs in previously irradiated areas. The phenomenon is probably due to an idiosyncratic hypersensitivity reaction, in which a second agent can recall the inflammatory reaction. This case report documents a cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis (RRD). We observed a severe RRD in a patient after chemoradiotherapy treatment with cisplatin for a nasopharyngeal carcinoma, precipitated by cold temperatures, which developed 9 days after completion of therapy. In the medical literature, RRD following extreme cold temperatures seems to be a peculiar event. Until further information on the interaction is available, future studies on combined chemotherapy with cisplatin should be carefully monitored and any side effects clearly documented. This case suggests that environmental conditions may play a contributing role in the development of RRD. This case also implies that neither fraction size nor total radiation dose is a determining factor in the development of the dermatologic reaction. (orig.) [German] Die ''Radiation-Recall-Reaktion'' (RRR) ist eine Entzuendungsreaktion, die in zuvor bestrahlten Bereichen auftritt. Das Phaenomen wird wahrscheinlich durch eine spezifische Ueberempfindlichkeitsreaktion verursacht, bei der ein zweites Agens die Entzuendungsreaktion hervorruft. Dieser Fallbericht beschreibt eine kaltwetterinduzierte RR-Hautentzuendung. Wir beobachteten bei dem Patienten nach einer Radiochemotherapie mit Cisplatin aufgrund eines Nasopharynxkarzinoms eine heftige RR-Dermatitis (RRD) aufgrund kalter Temperaturen, die sich 9 Tage nach Therapiebeendigung entwickelte. In der medizinischen Literatur scheint eine RRD infolge extrem kalter Temperaturen ein besonderes Ereignis. Bis weitere Informationen zu der Interaktion verfuegbar sind, sollten zukuenftige Studien zur Kombinationstherapie mit Cisplatin sorgfaeltig ueberwacht und Nebenwirkungen eindeutig dokumentiert

  2. Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim

    2018-03-01

    Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.

  3. Antibody induced by immunization with the Jeryl Lynn mumps vaccine strain effectively neutralizes a heterologous wild-type mumps virus associated with a large outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Steven A; Qi, Li; Audet, Susette A; Sullivan, Bradley; Carbone, Kathryn M; Bellini, William J; Rota, Paul A; Sirota, Lev; Beeler, Judy

    2008-08-15

    Recent mumps outbreaks in older vaccinated populations were caused primarily by genotype G viruses, which are phylogenetically distinct from the genotype A vaccine strains used in the countries affected by the outbreaks. This finding suggests that genotype A vaccine strains could have reduced efficacy against heterologous mumps viruses. The remote history of vaccination also suggests that waning immunity could have contributed to susceptibility. To examine these issues, we obtained consecutive serum samples from children at different intervals after vaccination and assayed the ability of these samples to neutralize the genotype A Jeryl Lynn mumps virus vaccine strain and a genotype G wild-type virus obtained during the mumps outbreak that occurred in the United States in 2006. Although the geometric mean neutralizing antibody titers against the genotype G virus were approximately one-half the titers measured against the vaccine strain, and although titers to both viruses decreased with time after vaccination, antibody induced by immunization with the Jeryl Lynn mumps vaccine strain effectively neutralized the outbreak-associated virus at all time points tested.

  4. Bacterially Induced Weathering of Ultramafic Rock and Its Implications for Phytoextraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidd, Petra; Kuffner, Melanie; Prieto-Fernández, Ángeles; Hann, Stephan; Monterroso, Carmela; Sessitsch, Angela; Wenzel, Walter; Puschenreiter, Markus

    2013-01-01

    The bioavailability of metals in soil is often cited as a limiting factor of phytoextraction (or phytomining). Bacterial metabolites, such as organic acids, siderophores, or biosurfactants, have been shown to mobilize metals, and their use to improve metal extraction has been proposed. In this study, the weathering capacities of, and Ni mobilization by, bacterial strains were evaluated. Minimal medium containing ground ultramafic rock was inoculated with either of two Arthrobacter strains: LA44 (indole acetic acid [IAA] producer) or SBA82 (siderophore producer, PO4 solubilizer, and IAA producer). Trace elements and organic compounds were determined in aliquots taken at different time intervals after inoculation. Trace metal fractionation was carried out on the remaining rock at the end of the experiment. The results suggest that the strains act upon different mineral phases. LA44 is a more efficient Ni mobilizer, apparently solubilizing Ni associated with Mn oxides, and this appeared to be related to oxalate production. SBA82 also leads to release of Ni and Mn, albeit to a much lower extent. In this case, the concurrent mobilization of Fe and Si indicates preferential weathering of Fe oxides and serpentine minerals, possibly related to the siderophore production capacity of the strain. The same bacterial strains were tested in a soil-plant system: the Ni hyperaccumulator Alyssum serpyllifolium subsp. malacitanum was grown in ultramafic soil in a rhizobox system and inoculated with each bacterial strain. At harvest, biomass production and shoot Ni concentrations were higher in plants from inoculated pots than from noninoculated pots. Ni yield was significantly enhanced in plants inoculated with LA44. These results suggest that Ni-mobilizing inoculants could be useful for improving Ni uptake by hyperaccumulator plants. PMID:23793627

  5. Extreme Weather and Civil War in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks?

    OpenAIRE

    Maystadt, Jean-Francois; Ecker, Olivier; Mabiso, Athur

    2013-01-01

    Climate change leads to more frequent and more intense droughts in Somalia. In a global context, weather shocks have been found to perpetuate poverty and fuel civil conflict. By relating regional and temporal variations in violent conflict outbreaks with drought incidence and severity, we show that this causality is valid also for Somalia at the local level. We find that livestock price shocks drive drought-induced conflicts through reducing the opportunity costs of conflict participation. Ou...

  6. Elemental and mineralogical imaging of a weathered limestone rock by double-pulse micro-Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senesi, Giorgio S.; Campanella, Beatrice; Grifoni, Emanuela; Legnaioli, Stefano; Lorenzetti, Giulia; Pagnotta, Stefano; Poggialini, Francesco; Palleschi, Vincenzo; De Pascale, Olga

    2018-05-01

    The present work aims to evaluate the alteration conditions of historical limestone rocks exposed to urban environment using the Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) technique. The approach proposed is based on the microscale three dimensional (3D) compositional imaging of the sample through double-pulse micro-Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (DP-μLIBS) in conjunction with optical microscopy. DP-μLIBS allows to perform a quick and detailed in-depth analysis of the composition of the weathered artifact by creating a 'virtual thin section' (VTS) of the sample which can estimate the extent of the alteration processes occurred at the limestone surface. The DP-μLIBS analysis of these thin sections showed a reduction with depth of the elements (mainly Fe, Si and Na) originating from atmospheric dust, particulate deposition and the surrounding environment (due to the proximity of the sea), whereas, the LIBS signal of Ca increased in intensity from the black crust to the limestone underneath.

  7. Coxiella burnetii Shedding Routes and Antibody Response after Outbreaks of Q Fever-Induced Abortion in Dairy Goat Herds▿

    OpenAIRE

    Rousset, Elodie; Berri, Mustapha; Durand, Benoit; Dufour, Philippe; Prigent, Myriam; Delcroix, Thibault; Touratier, Anne; Rodolakis, Annie

    2008-01-01

    Q fever is a zoonosis caused by Coxiella burnetii, a bacterium largely carried by ruminants and shed into milk, vaginal mucus, and feces. The main potential hazard to humans and animals is due to shedding of bacteria that can then persist in the environment and be aerosolized. The purpose of this study was to evaluate shedding after an outbreak of Q fever abortion in goat herds and to assess the relationship with the occurrence of abortions and antibody responses. Aborting and nonaborting goa...

  8. Weather-induced variability of cesium 137 content in overground part of automorphic soil plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliashevich, H.V.

    2000-01-01

    Daily variability of specific cesium 137 content in plants (12 species) from 30-km zone of Chernobyl NPP in summer time under the influence of climatic factors is shown. The rise of residual solar radiation (exceeding 2 MJ/m 2 in a day) and average diurnal temperature over 10 - 15 degrees centigrade (for different species) induced decrease in activity of overground phyto mass while precipitation takes opposite effect. A threshold and non-threshold type of cesium 137 accumulation in plants was recorded at higher daily fall-out. Critical sum of diurnal precipitation for the latter case in 5 species (Agropyron repens (L.) P.B., Bromus inermis Leyss., Origanum vulgare L., Festuca arundinacea Shreb., Acer plata noides L.) is in the range of 20 - 25 mm

  9. Disease Outbreak News

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... MERS-CoV) Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza at the Human-Animal Interface (HAI) Related documents WHO outbreak communication guide 2008 WHO outbreak communications guidelines Outbreak communication: ...

  10. An Experimental Study on the Water-Induced Strength Reduction in Zigong Argillaceous Siltstone with Different Degree of Weathering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-chuan Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The water-softening property of soft rocks is a key problem in geotechnical engineering. A typical red-bed soft rock (the Zigong argillaceous siltstones with different weathering degree is selected as an example to study the water-softening property and the influence of degree of weathering. A series of mechanical and microstructure tests are carried out to analyze the weathering characteristics and mechanism of the Zigong argillaceous siltstones. The results of mechanical experiments reveal that the water content and the weathering degree of rock specimens both have a weakening effect on the compressive and shear strengths. According to the results of present microstructure tests, the mechanical properties of the Zigong argillaceous siltstones are closely correlated with their physical properties, including internal microstructure and material composition for highly weathered rocks or moderately weathered rocks (in both natural and saturation conditions. Finally, experimental results indicate that the changes of microstructure and internal materials are two main factors that influence rock strength parameters after contacting with water and that these properties reflect the rock weathering degree. In a word, when red-bed soft rocks are encountered in geotechnical engineering, special attention should be paid to presence of water.

  11. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  12. Weather Instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brantley, L. Reed, Sr.; Demanche, Edna L.; Klemm, E. Barbara; Kyselka, Will; Phillips, Edwin A.; Pottenger, Francis M.; Yamamoto, Karen N.; Young, Donald B.

    This booklet presents some activities to measure various weather phenomena. Directions for constructing a weather station are included. Instruments including rain gauges, thermometers, wind vanes, wind speed devices, humidity devices, barometers, atmospheric observations, a dustfall jar, sticky-tape can, detection of gases in the air, and pH of…

  13. Disneyland Measles Outbreak

    OpenAIRE

    Palladino, Erica

    2015-01-01

    This media information sheet analyzes print and online coverage of the 2015 Disneyland measles outbreak. The frameworks that the media used to report on the outbreak presented vaccination as the only viable option from preventing the spread of measles. Reporting also failed to mention that the 2015 Disneyland measles outbreak was smaller than U.S. measles outbreaks in 2013 and 2014.

  14. Coxiella burnetii shedding routes and antibody response after outbreaks of Q fever-induced abortion in dairy goat herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousset, Elodie; Berri, Mustapha; Durand, Benoit; Dufour, Philippe; Prigent, Myriam; Delcroix, Thibault; Touratier, Anne; Rodolakis, Annie

    2009-01-01

    Q fever is a zoonosis caused by Coxiella burnetii, a bacterium largely carried by ruminants and shed into milk, vaginal mucus, and feces. The main potential hazard to humans and animals is due to shedding of bacteria that can then persist in the environment and be aerosolized. The purpose of this study was to evaluate shedding after an outbreak of Q fever abortion in goat herds and to assess the relationship with the occurrence of abortions and antibody responses. Aborting and nonaborting goats were monitored by PCR for C. burnetii shedding 15 and 30 days after the abortion episodes. PCR analysis of all samples showed that 70% (n = 50) of the aborting and 53% (n = 70) of the nonaborting goats were positive. C. burnetii was shed into vaginal mucus, feces, and milk of 44%, 21%, and 38%, respectively, of goats that aborted and 27%, 20%, and 31%, respectively, of goats that delivered normally. Statistical comparison of these shedding results did not reveal any difference between these two groups. PCR results obtained for the vaginal and fecal routes were concordant in 81% of cases, whereas those for milk correlated with only 49% of cases with either vaginal or fecal shedding status. Serological analysis, using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA), and complement fixation tests, showed that at least 24% of the seronegative goats shed bacteria. Positive vaginal and fecal shedding, unlike positive milk shedding, was observed more often in animals that were weakly positive or negative by ELISA or IFA. Two opposite shedding trends were thus apparent for the milk and vaginal-fecal routes. Moreover, this study showed that a nonnegligible proportion of seronegative animals that delivered normally could excrete C. burnetii.

  15. Biology and outbreaks of Microdiprion pallipes (Hymenoptera; Diprionidae) in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olofsson, E. (Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Entomology)

    1994-01-01

    During outbreaks, Microdiprion pallipes (Fall.) is the most destructive of the pine sawflies in Sweden. Its distribution includes most provinces, but damaging outbreaks have until recently occurred only in two inland areas in northern Sweden. These areas are characterised by high elevation, a harsh climate, and slow tree growth. The four recorded outbreak periods showed a 10 year periodicity. Outside these areas, a lesser outbreak occurred in 1988 to 1990, on the east coast (province of Uppland). Outbreak patterns, life history variation, and mortality factors were studied. Factors that may explain the distribution of outbreaks and the population patterns were identified.Experimental and observational evidence on the potential of various factors to influence fecundity, dispersal, and survival was evaluated. In the outbreak areas, there were few major population factors. Parasitism by Rhorus substitutor (Thunb.) was the largest cause of larval mortality and the only important density-dependent mortality factor. The different diapause strategies of M. pallipes and R. substitutor may contribute to stabilize this system. Different flight periods of the host and the parasitoid may explain a possible correlation between weather and outbreaks. Elsewhere in Sweden, where low population densities prevail, there may be similarities in population processes between M. pallipes and the other widely distributed diprionids with solitary larvae, which never have attained outbreak densities in Sweden. Interactions with other diprionids through shared natural enemies may be an important population process and may influence the distribution of outbreaks. 37 refs, 4 figs, 11 tabs

  16. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  17. Space weather events in July 1982 and October 2003 and the effects of geomagnetically induced currents on Swedish technical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Wik

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we analyse in detail two famous space weather events; a railway problem on 13–14 July 1982 and a power blackout on 30 October 2003. Both occurred in Sweden during very intensive space weather storms and each of them a few years after the sunspot maximum. This paper provides a description of the conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind leading to the two GIC events on the ground. By applying modelling techniques introduced and developed in our previous paper, we also calculate the horizontal geoelectric field at the Earth's surface in southern Sweden during the two storms as well as GIC flowing in the southern Swedish 400 kV power grid during the event in October 2003. The results from the calculations agree with all measured data available. In the July-1982 storm, the geomagnetic field variation, ΔBx, reached values up to ~2500 nT/min and the geoelectric field reached values in the order of several volts per kilometer. In the October-2003 storm, the geomagnetic field fluctuations were smaller. However, GIC of some hundreds of amperes flowed in the power grid during the October-2003 event. Technological issues related to the railway signalling in July 1982 and to the power network equipment in October 2003 are also discussed.

  18. National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

  19. Evaluation of the Repeatability of the Delta Q Duct Leakage Testing TechniqueIncluding Investigation of Robust Analysis Techniques and Estimates of Weather Induced Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickerhoff, Darryl; Walker, Iain

    2008-08-01

    The DeltaQ test is a method of estimating the air leakage from forced air duct systems. Developed primarily for residential and small commercial applications it uses the changes in blower door test results due to forced air system operation. Previous studies established the principles behind DeltaQ testing, but raised issues of precision of the test, particularly for leaky homes on windy days. Details of the measurement technique are available in an ASTM Standard (ASTM E1554-2007). In order to ease adoption of the test method, this study answers questions regarding the uncertainty due to changing weather during the test (particularly changes in wind speed) and the applicability to low leakage systems. The first question arises because the building envelope air flows and pressures used in the DeltaQ test are influenced by weather induced pressures. Variability in wind induced pressures rather than temperature difference induced pressures dominates this effect because the wind pressures change rapidly over the time period of a test. The second question needs to answered so that DeltaQ testing can be used in programs requiring or giving credit for tight ducts (e.g., California's Building Energy Code (CEC 2005)). DeltaQ modeling biases have been previously investigated in laboratory studies where there was no weather induced changes in envelope flows and pressures. Laboratory work by Andrews (2002) and Walker et al. (2004) found biases of about 0.5% of forced air system blower flow and individual test uncertainty of about 2% of forced air system blower flow. The laboratory tests were repeated by Walker and Dickerhoff (2006 and 2008) using a new ramping technique that continuously varied envelope pressures and air flows rather than taking data at pre-selected pressure stations (as used in ASTM E1554-2003 and other previous studies). The biases and individual test uncertainties for ramping were found to be very close (less than 0.5% of air handler flow) to those

  20. Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

  1. Monthly Weather Review

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  2. Outbreaks and Investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Who Gets Fungal Infections? People living with HIV/AIDS Organ Transplant Patients Cancer Patients Hospitalized Patients Stem Cell Transplant Patients Medications that Weaken Your Immune System Outbreaks Rhizopus Investigation CDC at Work Global Fungal Diseases Cryptococcal Meningitis ...

  3. Investigating Listeria Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Dr. Emily Cartwright, Infectious Disease fellow at Emory University and former EIS Officer with CDC’s Division of Foodborne, Waterborne, and Environmental Diseases discusses foodborne Listeria outbreaks.

  4. National Outbreak Reporting System

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) is a web-based platform designed to support reporting to CDC by local, state, and territorial health departments in the...

  5. Weathering and landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

    2005-04-01

    In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

  6. Planning for smallpox outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Neil M.; Keeling, Matt J.; John Edmunds, W.; Gani, Raymond; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Anderson, Roy M.; Leach, Steve

    2003-10-01

    Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

  7. Responding to Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-04-27

    In this podcast, a team of CDC specialists travels to Uganda and tracks the source of an Ebola outbreak where CDC scientists are studying bats for clues to the Ebola mystery.  Created: 4/27/2009 by National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne, and Enteric Diseases (NCZVED).   Date Released: 4/27/2009.

  8. Investigating Listeria Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2013-01-04

    Dr. Emily Cartwright, Infectious Disease fellow at Emory University and former EIS Officer with CDC’s Division of Foodborne, Waterborne, and Environmental Diseases discusses foodborne Listeria outbreaks.  Created: 1/4/2013 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 1/8/2013.

  9. Foodborne Norovirus Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-09-17

    Dr. Aron Hall, a CDC epidemiologist specializing in noroviruses, discusses foodborne norovirus outbreaks.  Created: 9/17/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID); National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 9/17/2012.

  10. Considerations in the weathering of wood-plastic composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicole M. Stark

    2007-01-01

    During weathering, wood-plastic composites (WPCs) can fade and lose stiffness and strength. Weathering variables that induce these changes include exposure to UV light and water. Each variable degrades WPCs independently, but can also act synergistically. Recent efforts have highlighted the need to understand how WPCs weather, and to develop schemes for protection. The...

  11. WEATHER INDEX- THE BASIS OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botos Horia Mircea

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

  12. Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

  13. Mariners Weather Log

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Mariners Weather Log (MWL) is a publication containing articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact...

  14. National Convective Weather Diagnostic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  15. Pilot Weather Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

  16. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  17. Weather Radar Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

  18. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  19. Surface Weather Observations Hourly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  20. Radar Weather Observation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Radar Weather Observation is a set of archived historical manuscripts stored on microfiche. The primary source of these radar weather observations manuscript records...

  1. Land Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  2. Internet Weather Source

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  3. Natural Weathering Exposure Station

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

  4. Space Weather in Operation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The “Space Weather in Operations” effort will provide on-demand and near-real time space weather event information to the Data Access Toolkit (DAT), which is the...

  5. Cold-Weather Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

  6. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  7. Progress in space weather predictions and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundstedt, H.

    The methods of today's predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday's statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today's applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.

  8. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davey, Victoria

    The emergence of new, transmissible infections poses a significant threat to human populations. As the 2009 novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic and the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic demonstrate, we have observed the effects of rapid spread of illness in non-immune populations and experienced disturbing uncertainty about future potential for human suffering and societal disruption. Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of a newly emerged infectious organism are usually gathered in retrospect as the outbreak evolves and affects populations. Knowledge of potential effects of outbreaks and epidemics and most importantly, mitigation at community, regional, national and global levels is needed to inform policy that will prepare and protect people. Study of possible outcomes of evolving epidemics and application of mitigation strategies is not possible in observational or experimental research designs, but computational modeling allows conduct of `virtual' experiments. Results of well-designed computer simulations can aid in the selection and implementation of strategies that limit illness and death, and maintain systems of healthcare and other critical resources that are vital to public protection. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

  9. Fitting outbreak models to data from many small norovirus outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eamon B. O’Dea

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Infectious disease often occurs in small, independent outbreaks in populations with varying characteristics. Each outbreak by itself may provide too little information for accurate estimation of epidemic model parameters. Here we show that using standard stochastic epidemic models for each outbreak and allowing parameters to vary between outbreaks according to a linear predictor leads to a generalized linear model that accurately estimates parameters from many small and diverse outbreaks. By estimating initial growth rates in addition to transmission rates, we are able to characterize variation in numbers of initially susceptible individuals or contact patterns between outbreaks. With simulation, we find that the estimates are fairly robust to the data being collected at discrete intervals and imputation of about half of all infectious periods. We apply the method by fitting data from 75 norovirus outbreaks in health-care settings. Our baseline regression estimates are 0.0037 transmissions per infective-susceptible day, an initial growth rate of 0.27 transmissions per infective day, and a symptomatic period of 3.35 days. Outbreaks in long-term-care facilities had significantly higher transmission and initial growth rates than outbreaks in hospitals.

  10. Forecasting rodent outbreaks in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leirs, Herwig; Verhagen, Ron; Verheyen, Walter

    1996-01-01

    1. Rainfall data were collated for years preceding historical outbreaks of Mastomys rats in East Africa in order to test the hypothesis that such outbreaks occur after long dry periods. 2. Rodent outbreaks were generally not preceded by long dry periods. 3. Population dynamics of Mastomys...... natalensis rats in Tanzania are significantly affected by the distribution of rainfall during the rainy season. 4. All previous rodent outbreaks in Tanzania were preceded by abundant rainfall early in the rainy season, i.e, towards the end of the year. 5. A flow chart is constructed to assess the likelihood...

  11. Incentives for reporting disease outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramanan Laxminarayan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Countries face conflicting incentives to report infectious disease outbreaks. Reports of outbreaks can prompt other countries to impose trade and travel restrictions, which has the potential to discourage reporting. However, reports can also bring medical assistance to contain the outbreak, including access to vaccines. METHODS: We compiled data on reports of meningococcal meningitis to the World Health Organization (WHO from 54 African countries between 1966 and 2002, a period is marked by two events: first, a large outbreak reported from many countries in 1987 associated with the Hajj that resulted in more stringent requirements for meningitis vaccination among pilgrims; and second, another large outbreak in Sub-Saharan Africa in 1996 that led to a new international mechanism to supply vaccines to countries reporting a meningitis outbreak. We used fixed-effects regression modeling to statistically estimate the effect of external forcing events on the number of countries reporting cases of meningitis to WHO. FINDINGS: We find that the Hajj vaccination requirements started in 1988 were associated with reduced reporting, especially among countries with relatively fewer cases reported between 1966 and 1979. After the vaccine provision mechanism was in place in 1996, reporting among countries that had previously not reported meningitis outbreaks increased. INTERPRETATION: These results indicate that countries may respond to changing incentives to report outbreaks when they can do so. In the long term, these incentives are likely to be more important than surveillance assistance in prompt reporting of outbreaks.

  12. Space Weather Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

  13. Cockpit weather information needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Charles H.

    1992-01-01

    The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

  14. Using Remote Sensing, Weather, and Demographic Data to Create Risk Maps for Zika, Dengue, and Chikungunya in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manore, C.; Conrad, J.; Del Valle, S.; Ziemann, A.; Fairchild, G.; Generous, E. N.

    2017-12-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases such as Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses have dynamics coupled to weather, ecology, human infrastructure, socio-economic demographics, and behavior. We use time-varying remote sensing and weather data, along with demographics and ecozones to predict risk through time for Zika, dengue, and chikungunya outbreaks in Brazil. We use distributed lag methods to quantify the lag between outbreaks and weather. Our statistical model indicates that the relationships between the variables are complex, but that quantifying risk is possible with the right data at appropriate spatio-temporal scales.

  15. Weather and emotional state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spasova, Z.

    2010-09-01

    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  16. Gastroenteritis outbreaks on cruise ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mouchtouri, Varvara A; Verykouki, Eleni; Zamfir, Dumitru

    2017-01-01

    When an increased number of acute gastroenteritis (AG) cases is detected among tourists staying at the same accommodation, outbreak management plans must be activated in a timely manner to prevent large outbreaks. Syndromic surveillance data collected between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2013...

  17. Increased Rotavirus Prevalence in Diarrheal Outbreak Precipitated by Localized Flooding, Solomon Islands, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Forrest K; Ko, Albert I; Becha, Chris; Joshua, Cynthia; Musto, Jennie; Thomas, Sarah; Ronsse, Axelle; Kirkwood, Carl D; Sio, Alison; Aumua, Audrey; Nilles, Eric J

    2016-05-01

    Flooding on 1 of the Solomon Islands precipitated a nationwide epidemic of diarrhea that spread to regions unaffected by flooding and caused >6,000 cases and 27 deaths. Rotavirus was identified in 38% of case-patients tested in the city with the most flooding. Outbreak potential related to weather reinforces the need for global rotavirus vaccination.

  18. Fabulous Weather Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael

    2007-01-01

    Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

  19. Designing a Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Harry T.

    2012-01-01

    The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

  20. KSC Weather and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Launa; Huddleston, Lisa; Smith, Kristin

    2016-01-01

    This briefing outlines the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Weather organization, past research sponsored or performed, current organization, responsibilities, and activities, the evolution of weather support, future technologies, and an update on the status of the buoys located offshore of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and KSC.

  1. Weather and road capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore...

  2. Tales of future weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

    2015-01-01

    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

  3. Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Erhard M.

    1987-06-01

    Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

  4. Fair weather atmospheric electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R G

    2011-01-01

    Not long after Franklin's iconic studies, an atmospheric electric field was discovered in 'fair weather' regions, well away from thunderstorms. The origin of the fair weather field was sought by Lord Kelvin, through development of electrostatic instrumentation and early data logging techniques, but was ultimately explained through the global circuit model of C.T.R. Wilson. In Wilson's model, charge exchanged by disturbed weather electrifies the ionosphere, and returns via a small vertical current density in fair weather regions. New insights into the relevance of fair weather atmospheric electricity to terrestrial and planetary atmospheres are now emerging. For example, there is a possible role of the global circuit current density in atmospheric processes, such as cloud formation. Beyond natural atmospheric processes, a novel practical application is the use of early atmospheric electrostatic investigations to provide quantitative information on past urban air pollution.

  5. Physical Patterns Associated with 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Fernanda; Salem, Thomas

    2012-02-01

    The National Weather Service office in Memphis, Tennessee has aimed their efforts to improve severe tornado forecasting. Everything is not known about tornadogenesis, but one thing is: tornadoes tend to form within supercell thunderstorms. Hence, 27 April 2011 and 25 May 2011 were days when a Tornado Outbreak was expected to arise. Although 22 tornadoes struck the region on 27 April 2011, only 1 impacted the area on 25 May 2011. In order to understand both events, comparisons of their physical features were made. These parameters were studied using the Weather Event Simulator system and the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction database. This research concentrated on the Surface Frontal Analysis, NAM40 700mb Dew-Points, NAM80 250mb Wind Speed and NAM20 500mb Vorticity images as well as 0-6 km Shear, MUCAPE and VGP mesoscale patterns. As result of this research a Dry-Line ahead of a Cold Front, Dew-points 5C and higher, and high Vorticity values^ were synoptic patterns that influenced to the formation of supercell tornadoes. Finally, MUCAPE and VGP favored the possibility of tornadoes occurrence on 25 May 2011, but shear was the factor that made 27 April 2011 a day for a Tornado Outbreak weather event.

  6. Sun, weather, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

  7. Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

  8. Weather Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

  9. Oil Rig Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather observations taken at offshore platforms along the United States coastlines. The majority are located in oil-rich areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of...

  10. Waste glass weathering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.

    1994-01-01

    The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass

  11. Cape Kennedy Weather Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Digitized data taken from original weather observations taken at Cape Kennedy Air Force Station, Florida. Elements recorded are wind speed and direction,...

  12. Winter weather demand considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  13. NOAA Weather Radio

    Science.gov (United States)

    del tiempo incluido. Si eres quieres ser avisado de las advertencias y relojes de día o de noche, un Weather Radio relojes son independientes o basadas en el Condado (parroquia basados en Luisiana), aunque

  14. Space Weather Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

  15. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  16. Winter Weather: Indoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  17. Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  18. Winter Weather Checklists

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  19. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  20. Surface Weather Observations Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms is a set of historical manuscript records for the period 1893-1948. The collection includes two very similar form types: Form...

  1. Fire severity unaffected by spruce beetle outbreak in spruce-fir forests in southwestern Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrus, Robert A; Veblen, Thomas T; Harvey, Brian J; Hart, Sarah J

    2016-04-01

    Recent large and severe outbreaks of native bark beetles have raised concern among the general public and land managers about potential for amplified fire activity in western North America. To date, the majority of studies examining bark beetle outbreaks and subsequent fire severity in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have focused on outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests, but few studies, particularly field studies, have addressed the effects of the severity of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) infestation on subsequent fire severity in subalpine Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) forests. In Colorado, the annual area infested by spruce beetle outbreaks is rapidly rising, while MPB outbreaks are subsiding; therefore understanding this relationship is of growing importance. We collected extensive field data in subalpine forests in the eastern San Juan Mountains, southwestern Colorado, USA, to investigate whether a gray-stage (fire) spruce beetle infestation affected fire severity. Contrary to the expectation that bark beetle infestation alters subsequent fire severity, correlation and multivariate generalized linear regression analysis revealed no influence of pre-fire spruce beetle severity on nearly all field or remotely sensed measurements of fire severity. Findings were consistent across moderate and extreme burning conditions. In comparison to severity of the pre-fire beetle outbreak, we found that topography, pre-outbreak basal area, and weather conditions exerted a stronger effect on fire severity. Our finding that beetle infestation did not alter fire severity is consistent with previous retrospective studies examining fire activity following other bark beetle outbreaks and reiterates the overriding influence of climate that creates conditions conducive to large, high-severity fires in the subalpine zone of Colorado. Both bark beetle outbreaks and

  2. Space weather effects on ground based technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, T.

    Space weather can affect a variety of forms of ground-based technology, usually as a result of either the direct effects of the varying geomagnetic field, or as a result of the induced electric field that accompanies such variations. Technologies affected directly by geomagnetic variations include magnetic measurements made d ringu geophysical surveys, and navigation relying on the geomagnetic field as a direction reference, a method that is particularly common in the surveying of well-bores in the oil industry. The most obvious technology affected by induced electric fields during magnetic storms is electric power transmission, where the example of the blackout in Quebec during the March 1989 magnetic storm is widely known. Additionally, space weather effects must be taken into account in the design of active cathodic protection systems on pipelines to protect them against corrosion. Long-distance telecommunication cables may also have to be designed to cope with space weather related effects. This paper reviews the effects of space weather in these different areas of ground-based technology, and provides examples of how mitigation against hazards may be achieved. (The paper does not include the effects of space weather on radio communication or satellite navigation systems).

  3. Chemical Weathering on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolotov, Mikhail

    2018-01-01

    Chemical and phase compositions of Venus's surface could reflect history of gas- and fluid-rock interactions, recent and past climate changes, and a loss of water from the Earth's sister planet. The concept of chemical weathering on Venus through gas-solid type reactions has been established in 1960s after the discovery of hot and dense CO2-rich atmosphere inferred from Earth-based and Mariner 2 radio emission data. Initial works suggested carbonation, hydration, and oxidation of exposed igneous rocks and a control (buffering) of atmospheric gases by solid-gas type chemical equilibria in the near-surface lithosphere. Calcite, quartz, wollastonite, amphiboles, and Fe oxides were considered likely secondary minerals. Since the late 1970s, measurements of trace gases in the sub-cloud atmosphere by Pioneer Venus and Venera entry probes and Earth-based infrared spectroscopy doubted the likelihood of hydration and carbonation. The H2O gas content appeared to be low to allow a stable existence of hydrated and a majority of OH-bearing minerals. The concentration of SO2 was too high to allow the stability of calcite and Ca-rich silicates with respect to sulfatization to CaSO4. In 1980s, the supposed ongoing consumption of atmospheric SO2 to sulfates gained support by the detection of an elevated bulk S content at Venera and Vega landing sites. The induced composition of the near-surface atmosphere implied oxidation of ferrous minerals to magnetite and hematite, consistent with the infrared reflectance of surface materials. The likelihood of sulfatization and oxidation has been illustrated in modeling experiments at simulated Venus conditions. Venus's surface morphology suggests that hot surface rocks and fines of mainly mafic composition contacted atmospheric gases during several hundreds of millions years since a global volcanic resurfacing. Some exposed materials could have reacted at higher and lower temperatures in a presence of diverse gases at different altitudinal

  4. Casebook on application for weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-11-01

    This book introduces the excellent cases on application using weather at the industry, research center and public office. It lists the names and application cases in 2008 and 2009, which includes research on decease in risk by weather in the industry by Sam sung institute of safety and environment, service on weather information for people by KT, application with weather information in the flight by Korean air, use on weather information for prevention of disasters by Masan city hall, upgrade for business with weather marketing, center for river forecast in NOAA and the case using weather management for high profit margins.

  5. Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorđević Bojan S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

  6. Multiple origins of outbreak populations of a native insect pest in an agro-ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, T; Sakurai, T; Sakakibara, M; Watanabe, T

    2011-06-01

    Native insects can become epidemic pests in agro-ecosystems. A population genetics approach was applied to analyze the emergence and spread of outbreak populations of native insect species. Outbreaks of the mirid bug, Stenotus rubrovittatus, have rapidly expanded over Japan within the last two decades. To characterize the outbreak dynamics of this species, the genetic structure of local populations was assessed using polymorphisms of the mtDNA COI gene and six microsatellite loci. Results of the population genetic analysis suggested that S. rubrovittatus populations throughout Japan were genetically isolated by geographic distance and separated into three genetic clusters occupying spatially segregated regions. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that the genetic structure of S. rubrovittatus reflected post-glacial colonization. Early outbreaks of S. rubrovittatus in the 1980s occurred independently of genetically isolated populations. The genetic structure of the populations did not fit the pattern of an outbreak expansion, and therefore the data did not support the hypothesis that extensive outbreaks were caused by the dispersal of specific pestiferous populations. Rather, the historical genetic structure prior to the outbreaks was maintained throughout the increase in abundance of the mirid bug. Our study indicated that changes in the agro-environment induced multiple outbreaks of native pest populations. This implies that, given suitable environmental conditions, local populations may have the potential to outbreak even without invasion of populations from other environmentally degraded areas.

  7. Outbreak Column 16: Cognitive errors in outbreak decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Evonne T

    2015-01-01

    During outbreaks, decisions must be made without all the required information. People, including infection prevention and control teams (IPCTs), who have to make decisions during uncertainty use heuristics to fill the missing data gaps. Heuristics are mental model short cuts that by-and-large enable us to make good decisions quickly. However, these heuristics contain biases and effects that at times lead to cognitive (thinking) errors. These cognitive errors are not made to deliberately misrepresent any given situation; we are subject to heuristic biases when we are trying to perform optimally. The science of decision making is large; there are over 100 different biases recognised and described. Outbreak Column 16 discusses and relates these heuristics and biases to decision making during outbreak prevention, preparedness and management. Insights as to how we might recognise and avoid them are offered.

  8. Weather In Some Islands

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王良华

    2007-01-01

    There are four seasons in a year. When spring comes, the weather is mild(温和的). Summer comes after spring. Summer is the hottest season of the year. Autumn follows summer. It is the best season of the year. Winter is the coldest season of the year. Some islands(岛) have their own particular(特别的) seasons because their weather is very much affected(影响) by the oceans(海洋) around them. In Britain, winter is not very cold and summer is not very hot.

  9. Changes in lead and zinc lability during weathering-induced acidification of desert mine tailings: Coupling chemical and micro-scale analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayes, Sarah M.; White, Scott A.; Thompson, Thomas L.; Maier, Raina M.; Chorover, Jon

    2009-01-01

    Desert mine tailings may accumulate toxic metals in the near surface centimeters because of low water through-flux rates. Along with other constraints, metal toxicity precludes natural plant colonization even over decadal time scales. Since unconsolidated particles can be subjected to transport by wind and water erosion, potentially resulting in direct human and ecosystem exposure, there is a need to know how the lability and form of metals change in the tailings weathering environment. A combination of chemical extractions, X-ray diffraction, micro-X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, and micro-Raman spectroscopy were employed to study Pb and Zn contamination in surficial arid mine tailings from the Arizona Klondyke State Superfund Site. Initial site characterization indicated a wide range in pH (2.5-8.0) in the surficial tailings pile. Ligand-promoted (DTPA) extractions, used to assess plant-available metal pools, showed decreasing available Zn and Mn with progressive tailings acidification. Aluminum shows the inverse trend, and Pb and Fe show more complex pH dependence. Since the tailings derive from a common source and parent mineralogy, it is presumed that variations in pH and 'bio-available' metal concentrations result from associated variation in particle-scale geochemistry. Four sub-samples, ranging in pH from 2.6 to 5.4, were subjected to further characterization to elucidate micro-scale controls on metal mobility. With acidification, total Pb (ranging from 5 to 13 g kg -1 ) was increasingly associated with Fe and S in plumbojarosite aggregates. For Zn, both total (0.4-6 g kg -1 ) and labile fractions decreased with decreasing pH. Zinc was found to be primarily associated with the secondary Mn phases manjiroite and chalcophanite. The results suggest that progressive tailings acidification diminishes the overall lability of the total Pb and Zn pools.

  10. Dress for the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.

    2010-01-01

    "If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

  11. Climate, weather, and hops

    Science.gov (United States)

    As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

  12. Weather and Flight Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Scott

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews some of the weather hazards involved with flight testing. Some of the hazards reviewed are: turbulence, icing, thunderstorms and winds and windshear. Maps, pictures, satellite pictures of the meteorological phenomena and graphs are included. Also included are pictures of damaged aircraft.

  13. Weatherization Works: Weatherization Assistance Program Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The United States demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  14. Space Weather Studies at Istanbul Technical University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaymaz, Zerefsan

    2016-07-01

    This presentation will introduce the Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory of Istanbul Technical University (ITU). It has been established to support the educational needs of the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011 to conduct scientific research in Space Weather, Space Environment, Space Environment-Spacecraft Interactions, Space instrumentation and Upper Atmospheric studies. Currently the laboratory has some essential infrastructure and the most instrumentation for ionospheric observations and ground induced currents from the magnetosphere. The laboratory has two subunits: SWIFT dealing with Space Weather Instrumentation and Forecasting unit and SWDPA dealing with Space Weather Data Processing and Analysis. The research area covers wide range of upper atmospheric and space science studies from ionosphere, ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, distant magnetotail, magnetopause and bow shock studies, as well as solar and solar wind disturbances and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. We also study the spacecraft environment interaction and novel plasma instrument design. Several scientific projects have been carried out in the laboratory. Operational objectives of our laboratory will be carried out with the collaboration of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory and the facilities are in the process of integration to their prediction services. Educational and research objectives, as well as the examples from the research carried out in our laboratory will be demonstrated in this presentation.

  15. Selection tool for foodborne norovirus outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoef, Linda P B; Kroneman, Annelies; van Duynhoven, Yvonne; Boshuizen, Hendriek; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Koopmans, Marion

    2009-01-01

    Detection of pathogens in the food chain is limited mainly to bacteria, and the globalization of the food industry enables international viral foodborne outbreaks to occur. Outbreaks from 2002 through 2006 recorded in a European norovirus surveillance database were investigated for virologic and epidemiologic indicators of food relatedness. The resulting validated multivariate logistic regression model comparing foodborne (n = 224) and person-to-person (n = 654) outbreaks was used to create a practical web-based tool that can be limited to epidemiologic parameters for nongenotyping countries. Non-genogroup-II.4 outbreaks, higher numbers of cases, and outbreaks in restaurants or households characterized (sensitivity = 0.80, specificity = 0.86) foodborne outbreaks and reduced the percentage of outbreaks requiring source-tracing to 31%. The selection tool enabled prospectively focused follow-up. Use of this tool is likely to improve data quality and strain typing in current surveillance systems, which is necessary for identification of potential international foodborne outbreaks.

  16. Norovirus: U.S. Trends and Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... harvested from contaminated water and raspberries irrigated with contaminated water have caused norovirus outbreaks. Norovirus on Cruise Ships Over 90% of diarrheal disease outbreaks on cruise ships are caused by norovirus ( ...

  17. Reporting and Surveillance for Norovirus Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Vaccine Surveillance Network (NVSN) Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) Estimates of Foodborne Illness in the United States CDC's Vessel Sanitation Program CDC Feature: Surveillance for Norovirus Outbreaks Top ...

  18. Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) is an integrated database of severe weather records for the United States. SWDI enables a user to search through a variety...

  19. North America Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

  20. Geography and Weather: Mountain Meterology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogil, H. Michael; Collins, H. Thomas

    1990-01-01

    Provided are 26 ideas to help children explore the effects of mountains on the weather. Weather conditions in Nepal and Colorado are considered separately. Nine additional sources of information are listed. (CW)

  1. TOWARDS MODELING DISEASE OUTBREAK NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Farag Azzedin; Jaweed Yazdani,; Salahadin Adam; Mustafa Ghaleb

    2014-01-01

    Disease outbreak detection, monitoring and notification systems play an important role in assessing threats to public health since disease outbreaks are becoming increasingly common world-wide. There are several systems in use around the world, with coverage of national, international and global disease outbreaks. These systems use different taxonomies and classifications for the detection and prioritization of potential disease outbreaks. In this paper, we study and analyze th...

  2. Measles (Rubeola) Cases and Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Address What’s this? Submit What's this? Submit Button Measles Cases and Outbreaks Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) ... Español: Casos y brotes de sarampión Number of measles cases by year since 2010 Measles cases per ...

  3. Outbreak of Sporotrichosis, Western Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feeney, Kynan T.; Whittle, Amanda J.; Altman, Shelley A.; Speers, David J.

    2007-01-01

    A cluster of sporotrichosis cases occurred in the Busselton-Margaret River region of Western Australia from 2000 to 2003. Epidemiologic investigation and mycologic culture for Sporothrix schenckii implicated hay initially distributed through a commercial hay supplier as the source of the outbreak. Declining infection rates have occurred after various community measures were instigated. PMID:17953099

  4. Larval outbreaks in West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Magnus; Raundrup, Katrine; Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    effects of a larval outbreak in 2011 on vegetation productivity and CO2 exchange. We estimate a decreased carbon (C) sink strength in the order of 118–143 g C m−2, corresponding to 1210–1470 tonnes C at the Kobbefjord catchment scale. The decreased C sink was, however, counteracted the following years...

  5. Different responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors among Shanghai, Hong Kong, and British Columbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xi-Ling; Yang, Lin; He, Dai-Hai; Chiu, Alice Py; Chan, Kwok-Hung; Chan, King-Pan; Zhou, Maigeng; Wong, Chit-Ming; Guo, Qing; Hu, Wenbiao

    2017-06-01

    Weather factors have long been considered as key sources for regional heterogeneity of influenza seasonal patterns. As influenza peaks coincide with both high and low temperature in subtropical cities, weather factors may nonlinearly or interactively affect influenza activity. This study aims to assess the nonlinear and interactive effects of weather factors with influenza activity and compare the responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors in two subtropical regions of southern China (Shanghai and Hong Kong) and one temperate province of Canada (British Columbia). Weekly data on influenza activity and weather factors (i.e., mean temperature and relative humidity (RH)) were obtained from pertinent government departments for the three regions. Absolute humidity (AH) was measured by vapor pressure (VP), which could be converted from temperature and RH. Generalized additive models were used to assess the exposure-response relationship between weather factors and influenza virus activity. Interactions of weather factors were further assessed by bivariate response models and stratification analyses. The exposure-response curves of temperature and VP, but not RH, were consistent among three regions/cities. Bivariate response model revealed a significant interactive effect between temperature (or VP) and RH (P weather factors in developing a universal model to explain seasonal outbreaks of influenza. However, further research is needed to assess the association between weather factors and influenza activity in a wider context of social and environmental conditions.

  6. Identification of the Key Weather Factors Affecting Overwintering Success of Apolygus lucorum Eggs in Dead Host Tree Branches

    OpenAIRE

    Pan, Hongsheng; Liu, Bing; Lu, Yanhui; Desneux, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the effects of weather on insect population dynamics is crucial to simulate and forecast pest outbreaks, which is becoming increasingly important with the effects of climate change. The mirid bug Apolygus lucorum is an important pest on cotton, fruit trees and other crops in China, and primarily lays its eggs on dead parts of tree branches in the fall for subsequent overwintering. As such, the eggs that hatch the following spring are most strongly affected by ambient weather fac...

  7. Central American Flying Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    CEILING; VISIBILITY; WIND, PRECIPITATIDNc’--." HAZE, SMOKE, TEMPORALE ; MOUNTAIN WAVE; MILITARY METEOROLOGY. 4k- / ’A. bstract; Asummary of~ing weather...1 The " Temporale " ....................................1 Mountain Waves ......................I...............1 Severe Thunderstorms...charts. The for any part of Central America lies in having: Tactical Pilota.e Chart series , produced by the Df -.nse Mapping Agency, is * A good, basic

  8. World Weather Extremes. Revision,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    Ext r-,ncs, Weekl Weather and Crop Bull, Vol. 43, No. 9, pp. 6-8, 27 Feb 56. 21A. ntoli, La Piu Alta Temperatura del Mondo," [The HiLhest Temperi... Temperatura in Libia", Boll Soc Geogr Ita’iana, ser. 8, Vol. 7, pp. 59-71, 1954. 23J. Gentilli, "Libyan Climate", Geograph Rev, V0 l. 45, No. 2, p. 269 S" Apr

  9. Ecological consequences of mountain pine beetle outbreaks for wildlife in western North American forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saab, Victoria A.; Latif, Quresh S.; Rowland, Mary M.; Johnson, Tracey N.; Chalfoun, Anna D.; Buskirk, Steven W.; Heyward, Joslin E.; Dresser, Matthew A.

    2014-01-01

    Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) (MPB) outbreaks are increasingly prevalent in western North America, causing considerable ecological change in pine (Pinus spp.) forests with important implications for wildlife. We reviewed studies examining wildlife responses to MPB outbreaks and postoutbreak salvage logging to inform forest management and guide future research. Our review included 16 studies describing MPB outbreak relationships with 89 bird species and 6 studies describing relationships with 11 mammalian species, but no studies of reptiles or amphibians. We included studies that compared wildlife response metrics temporally (before versus after the outbreak) and spatially (across sites that varied in severity of outbreak) in relation to beetle outbreaks. Outbreaks ranged in size from 20,600 to ≥107 ha and studies occurred 1‐30 years after the peak MPB outbreak, but most studies were conducted over the short-term (i.e., ≤6 years after the peak of MPB-induced tree mortality). Birds were the only taxa studied frequently; however, high variability existed among those studies to allow many inferences, although some patterns were evident. Avian studies concluded that cavity-nesting species responded more favorably to beetle-killed forests than species with open-cup nests, and species nesting in the shrub layer favored outbreak forests compared with ground and open-cup canopy nesters that generally showed mixed relationships. Bark-drilling species as a group clearly demonstrated a positive short-term association with MPB epidemics compared with that of other foraging assemblages. Cavity-nesting birds that do not consume bark beetles (i.e., secondary cavity-nesting species and nonbark-drilling woodpeckers) also exhibited some positive responses to MPB outbreaks, although not as pronounced or consistent as those of bark-drilling woodpeckers. Mammalian responses to MPB outbreaks were mixed. Studies consistently reported negative effects of MPB

  10. NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

  11. Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... English Español Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth / For Parents / Can the Weather Affect My ... Asthma? Print Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Yes. Weather conditions can bring on asthma symptoms. ...

  12. Space Weather Services of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  13. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

  14. Impacts of Extreme Space Weather Events on Power Grid Infrastructure: Physics-Based Modelling of Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (GICs) During Carrington-Class Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, M. G.; Bent, R.; Chen, Y.; Delzanno, G. L.; Jeffery, C. A.; Jordanova, V. K.; Morley, S.; Rivera, M. K.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.; Woodroffe, J. R.; Engel, M.

    2017-12-01

    Large geomagnetic storms can have devastating effects on power grids. The largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded - called the Carrington Event - occurred in 1859 and produced Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) strong enough to set fires in telegraph offices. It has been estimated that if such a storm occurred today, it would have devastating, long-lasting effects on the North American power transmission infrastructure. Acutely aware of this imminent threat, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) was recently instructed to establish requirements for transmission system performance during geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) events and, although the benchmarks adopted were based on the best available data at the time, they suffer from a severely limited physical understanding of the behavior of GMDs and the resulting GICs for strong events. To rectify these deficiencies, we are developing a first-of-its-kind data-informed modelling capability that will provide transformational understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for the most harmful intense localized GMDs and their impacts on real power transmission networks. This work is being conducted in two separate modes of operation: (1) using historical, well-observed large storm intervals for which robust data-assimilation can be performed, and (2) extending the modelling into a predictive realm in order to assess impacts of poorly and/or never-before observed Carrington-class events. Results of this work are expected to include a potential replacement for the current NERC benchmarking methodology and the development of mitigation strategies in real power grid networks. We report on progress to date and show some preliminary results of modeling large (but not yet extreme) events.

  15. The Weather in Richmond

    OpenAIRE

    Harless, William Edwin

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: The Weather in Richmond is a short documentary about the Oilers, the football team at Richmond High School in downtown Richmond, California, as they struggle in 2012 with the legacy of winning no games, with the exception of a forfeit, in two years. The video documents the city of Richmond’s poverty and violence, but it also is an account of the city’s cultural diversity, of the city’s industrial history and of the hopes of some of the people who grow up there. The...

  16. Combating bad weather

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta

    2015-01-01

    Every year lives and properties are lost in road accidents. About one-fourth of these accidents are due to low vision in foggy weather. At present, there is no algorithm that is specifically designed for the removal of fog from videos. Application of a single-image fog removal algorithm over each video frame is a time-consuming and costly affair. It is demonstrated that with the intelligent use of temporal redundancy, fog removal algorithms designed for a single image can be extended to the real-time video application. Results confirm that the presented framework used for the extension of the

  17. Weather Balloon Ascent Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denny, Mark

    2016-05-01

    The physics of a weather balloon is analyzed. The surprising aspect of the motion of these balloons is that they ascend to great altitudes (typically 35 km) at a more or less constant rate. Such behavior is not surprising near the ground—say for a helium-filled party balloon rising from street level to the top of the Empire State building—but it is unexpected for a balloon that rises to altitudes where the air is rarefied. We show from elementary physical laws why the ascent rate is approximately constant.

  18. Briefing highlights space weather risks to GPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tretkoff, Ernie

    2011-07-01

    Solar storms, which are expected to increase as the Sun nears the most active phase of the solar cycle, can disrupt a variety of technologies on which society relies. Speakers at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C., focused on how space weather can affect the Global Positioning System (GPS), which is used in a wide range of industries, including commercial air travel, agriculture, national security, and emergency response. Rocky Stone, chief technical pilot for United Airlines, noted that GPS allows more aircraft to be in airspace, saves fuel, and helps aircraft move safely on runways. “Improvements in space weather forecasting need to be pursued,” he said. Precision GPS has also “changed the whole nature of farming,” said Ron Hatch, Director of Navigation Systems, NavCom Technology/John Deere. GPS makes it possible for tractors to be driven in the most efficient paths and for fertilizer and water to be applied precisely to the areas that most need them. Space weather-induced degradation of GPS signals can cause significant loss to farms that rely on GPS. Elizabeth Zimmerman, Deputy Associate Administrator for the Office of Response and Recovery at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), described how FEMA relies on GPS for disaster recovery. The agency is developing an operations plan for dealing with space weather, she said.

  19. Swine flu - A pandemic outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jini George

    Full Text Available Hippocrates had described influenza like outbreak in 412 B.C. and since then repeated influenza like epidemics and pandemics have been recorded in recent times. One of the greatest killers of all time was the pandemic of swine flu (Spanish flu of 1918-1919, when 230 million people died. Annual influenza epidemics are estimated to affect 5–15% of the global population, resulting in severe illness in 3–5 million patients causing 250,000–500,000 deaths worldwide. Severe illness and deaths occur mainly in the high-risk populations of infants, the elderly and chronically ill patients. The 2009 outbreak of swine flu is thought to be a mutation more specifically a reassortment of four known strains of influenza A virus subtype H1N1; one endemic in humans, one endemic in birds, and two endemic in pigs. WHO officially declared the outbreak to be a pandemic on June 11, 2009, but stressed that the new designation was a result of the global "spread of the virus," not its severity. [Vet World 2009; 2(12.000: 472-474

  20. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  1. Dengue disease outbreak definitions are implicitly variable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver J. Brady

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Infectious diseases rarely exhibit simple dynamics. Outbreaks (defined as excess cases beyond response capabilities have the potential to cause a disproportionately high burden due to overwhelming health care systems. The recommendations of international policy guidelines and research agendas are based on a perceived standardised definition of an outbreak characterised by a prolonged, high-caseload, extra-seasonal surge. In this analysis we apply multiple candidate outbreak definitions to reported dengue case data from Brazil to test this assumption. The methods identify highly heterogeneous outbreak characteristics in terms of frequency, duration and case burden. All definitions identify outbreaks with characteristics that vary over time and space. Further, definitions differ in their timeliness of outbreak onset, and thus may be more or less suitable for early intervention. This raises concerns about the application of current outbreak guidelines for early warning/identification systems. It is clear that quantitatively defining the characteristics of an outbreak is an essential prerequisite for effective reactive response. More work is needed so that definitions of disease outbreaks can take into account the baseline capacities of treatment, surveillance and control. This is essential if outbreak guidelines are to be effective and generalisable across a range of epidemiologically different settings.

  2. Vodcasting Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins Petersen, Carolyn; Erickson, P. J.; Needles, M.

    2009-01-01

    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of vodcasts (video podcasts) produced by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, MA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, MA). This paper discusses the production and distribution of the series via Webcast, Youtube, and other avenues. It also presents preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness and outreach of the project through feedback from both formal and information education venues. The vodcast series is linked to the NASA Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology project award "Multi-Instrument Investigation of Inner-Magnetospheric/Ionosphere Disturbances.” It is being carried out by Principal Investigator Dr. John Foster, under the auspices of NASA Grant # NNX06AB86G. The research involves using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) observations to study the location, extent, and duration of perturbations within stormtime ionospheric electric fields at mid- to low latitudes. It combines ground-based global positioning system (GPS) TEC data, incoherent scatter radar measurements of the mid-latitude ionospheric state, and DMSP satellite observations to characterize conditions which lead to severe low-latitude ionospheric perturbations. Each vodcast episode covers a certain aspect of space weather and the research program.

  3. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Eric J

    2012-12-18

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  4. Solar weather monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Hochedez

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

  5. Weathering of rock 'Ginger'

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    One of the more unusual rocks at the site is Ginger, located southeast of the lander. Parts of it have the reddest color of any material in view, whereas its rounded lobes are gray and relatively unweathered. These color differences are brought out in the inset, enhanced at the upper right. In the false color image at the lower right, the shape of the visible-wavelength spectrum (related to the abundance of weathered ferric iron minerals) is indicated by the hue of the rocks. Blue indicates relatively unweathered rocks. Typical soils and drift, which are heavily weathered, are shown in green and flesh tones. The very red color in the creases in the rock surface correspond to a crust of ferric minerals. The origin of the rock is uncertain; the ferric crust may have grown underneath the rock, or it may cement pebbles together into a conglomerate. Ginger will be a target of future super-resolution studies to better constrain its origin.Mars Pathfinder is the second in NASA's Discovery program of low-cost spacecraft with highly focused science goals. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, developed and manages the Mars Pathfinder mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) was developed by the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory under contract to JPL. Peter Smith is the Principal Investigator. JPL is an operating division of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

  6. Space Weather- Physics and Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Bothmer, Volker

    2007-01-01

    This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

  7. Statistics of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. D. Malamud

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The standard measures of the intensity of a tornado in the USA and many other countries are the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales. These scales are based on the damage that a tornado causes. Another measure of the strength of a tornado is its path length of touchdown, L. In this study we consider severe tornadoes, which we define as L≥10 km, in the continental USA (USA Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Database. We find that for the period 1982–2011, for individual severe tornadoes (L≥10 km: (i There is a strong linear scaling between the number of severe tornadoes in a year and their total path length in that year. (ii The cumulative frequency path length data suggests that, not taking into account any changing trends over time, we would expect in a given year (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥115 km and in a decade (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥215 km. (iii The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of severe tornado touchdown path lengths, 20<L<200 km, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 3. We then take the total path length of severe tornadoes in a convective day (12:00–12:00 UTC, LD, as a measure of the strength of a 24-h USA tornado outbreak. We find that: (i For 1982–2011, the number of severe tornadoes in a USA convective day outbreak has a strong power-law relationship (exponent 0.80 on the convective day total path length, LD. (ii For 1952–2011, the cumulative frequency path length data for severe tornado outbreaks suggests that we would expect in a given year (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with total path length LD≥480 km and in a decade (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with a total path length LD≥1200 km. (iii For 1982–2011, the noncumulative frequency-length statistics of tornado

  8. Artificial changes of weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.D.; Vasil'ev, I.V.; Fedulina, I.N.; Zakizhan, Z.Z.; Khalimov, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    Unfavorable weather conditions have undesirable ecological consequences, causes remarkable economical damage. In the paper authors consider physical factors and technical methods of influence on cloud formation. (author)

  9. Outbreaks of Tularemia in a Boreal Forest Region Depends on Mosquito Prevalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rydén, Patrik; Björk, Rafael; Schäfer, Martina L.; Lundström, Jan O.; Petersén, Bodil; Lindblom, Anders; Forsman, Mats; Sjöstedt, Anders

    2012-01-01

    Background. We aimed to evaluate the potential association of mosquito prevalence in a boreal forest area with transmission of the bacterial disease tularemia to humans, and model the annual variation of disease using local weather data. Methods. A prediction model for mosquito abundance was built using weather and mosquito catch data. Then a negative binomial regression model based on the predicted mosquito abundance and local weather data was built to predict annual numbers of humans contracting tularemia in Dalarna County, Sweden. Results. Three hundred seventy humans were diagnosed with tularemia between 1981 and 2007, 94% of them during 7 summer outbreaks. Disease transmission was concentrated along rivers in the area. The predicted mosquito abundance was correlated (0.41, P tularemia (temporal correlation, 0.76; P tularemia in a tularemia-endemic boreal forest area of Sweden and that environmental variables can be used as risk indicators. PMID:22124130

  10. Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

    1964-01-01

    Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

  11. Outbreak of ocular toxoplasmosis in Coimbatore, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palanisamy Manikandan

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that infects up to a third of the world′s population. Infection is mainly acquired by ingestion of food that is contaminated with oocysts. We report an outbreak of ocular toxoplasmosis, which is an acute acquired type rather than reactivation of congenital toxoplasmosis. Our preliminary investigation points to municipal water contamination. This outbreak only proves the need of an effective public health system and health education in curtailing any outbreak.

  12. Protracted outbreak of S. Enteritidis PT 21c in a large Hamburg nursing home

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domke Paul-Gerhard

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During August 2006, a protracted outbreak of Salmonella (S. Enteritidis infections in a large Hamburg nursing home was investigated. Methods A site visit of the home was conducted and food suppliers' premises tested for Salmonella. Among nursing home residents a cohort study was carried out focusing on foods consumed in the three days before the first part of the outbreak. Instead of relying on residents' memory, data from the home's patient food ordering system was used as exposure data. S. Enteritidis isolates from patients and suspected food vehicles were phage typed and compared. Results Within a population of 822 nursing home residents, 94 case patients among residents (1 fatality and 17 among staff members were counted 6 through 29 August. The outbreak peaked 7 through 9 August, two days after a spell of very warm summer weather. S. Enteritidis was consistently recovered from patients' stools throughout the outbreak. Among the food items served during 5 through 7 August, the cohort study pointed to afternoon cake on all three days as potential risk factors for disease. Investigation of the bakery supplying the cake yielded S. Enteritidis from cakes sampled 31 August. Comparison of the isolates by phage typing demonstrated both isolates from patients and the cake to be the exceedingly rare phage type 21c. Conclusion Cake (various types served on various days contaminated with S. Enteritidis were the likely vehicle of the outbreak in the nursing home. While the cakes were probably contaminated with low pathogen dose throughout the outbreak period, high ambient summer temperatures and failure to keep the cake refrigerated led to high pathogen dose in cake on some days and in some of the housing units. This would explain the initial peak of cases, but also the drawn out nature of the outbreak with cases until the end of August. Suggestions are made to nursing homes, aiding in outbreak prevention. Early outbreak detection is

  13. Terminal weather information management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Alfred T.

    1990-01-01

    Since the mid-1960's, microburst/windshear events have caused at least 30 aircraft accidents and incidents and have killed more than 600 people in the United States alone. This study evaluated alternative means of alerting an airline crew to the presence of microburst/windshear events in the terminal area. Of particular interest was the relative effectiveness of conventional and data link ground-to-air transmissions of ground-based radar and low-level windshear sensing information on microburst/windshear avoidance. The Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator located at Ames Research Center was employed in a line oriented simulation of a scheduled round-trip airline flight from Salt Lake City to Denver Stapleton Airport. Actual weather en route and in the terminal area was simulated using recorded data. The microburst/windshear incident of July 11, 1988 was re-created for the Denver area operations. Six experienced airline crews currently flying scheduled routes were employed as test subjects for each of three groups: (1) A baseline group which received alerts via conventional air traffic control (ATC) tower transmissions; (2) An experimental group which received alerts/events displayed visually and aurally in the cockpit six miles (approx. 2 min.) from the microburst event; and (3) An additional experimental group received displayed alerts/events 23 linear miles (approx. 7 min.) from the microburst event. Analyses of crew communications and decision times showed a marked improvement in both situation awareness and decision-making with visually displayed ground-based radar information. Substantial reductions in the variability of decision times among crews in the visual display groups were also found. These findings suggest that crew performance will be enhanced and individual differences among crews due to differences in training and prior experience are significantly reduced by providing real-time, graphic display of terminal weather hazards.

  14. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. The Challenge of Weather Prediction Old and Modern Ways of Weather Forecasting. B N Goswami. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1997 pp 8-15. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  15. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  16. Weatherization Assistance Program Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2018-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy e ciency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety. The Program supports 8,500 jobs and provides weatherization services to approximately 35,000 homes every year using DOE funds.

  17. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  18. Artificial weathering of granite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Hermo, B.

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes a series of artificial weathering tests run on granite designed to: simulate the action of weathering agents on buildings and identify the underlying mechanisms, determine the salt resistance of different types of rock; evaluate consolidation and water-repellent treatment durability; and confirm hypotheses about the origin of salts such as gypsum that are often found in granite buildings. Salt crystallization tests were also conducted, using sodium chloride, sodium sulphate, calcium sulphate and seawater solutions. One of these tests was conducted in a chamber specifically designed to simulate salt spray weathering and another in an SO2 chamber to ascertain whether granite is subject to sulphation. The test results are analyzed and discussed, along with the shortcomings of each type of trial as a method for simulating the decay observed in monuments. The effect of factors such as wet-dry conditions, type of saline solution and the position of the planes of weakness on the type of decay is also addressed.En este trabajo se hace una síntesis de varios ensayos de alteración artificial realizados con rocas graníticas. Estos ensayos tenían distintos objetivos: reproducir las formas de alteración encontradas en los edificios para llegar a conocer los mecanismos que las generan, determinar la resistencia de las diferentes rocas a la acción de las sales, evaluar la durabilidad de tratamientos de consolidación e hidrofugación y constatar hipótesis acerca del origen de algunas sales, como el yeso, que aparecen frecuentemente en edificios graníticos. En los ensayos de cristalización de sales se utilizaron disoluciones de cloruro de sodio, sulfato de sodio, sulfato de calcio y agua de mar. Uno de estos ensayos se llevó a cabo en una cámara especialmente diseñada para reproducir la alteración por aerosol marino y otro se realizó en una cámara de SO2, con el objeto de comprobar si en rocas graníticas se puede producir

  19. Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

  20. Measles Outbreak among Unvaccinated Children in Bajura

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Sitaula

    2010-12-01

    CFR of this outbreak is higher than the national CFR. Vaccine efficacy of 50% points towards the need for investigation of vaccine logistics and cold chain system. Moreover, this laboratory test confirmed an outbreak showing that the measles virus could be imported from an endemic region and rapidly spread through a susceptible population who were previously not immunized.

  1. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  2. MRSA outbreak at a transplantation unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RMC Romanelli

    Full Text Available Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA infections frequently complicate the post-operative course of transplant recipients, and despite nasal carriage and endemic colonization, MRSA outbreaks are not commonly described. This study reports a case of MRSA outbreak and discusses infection control measures and recommendations for this situation.

  3. Salmonella outbreak among railway and airline passengers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatakka, M

    1992-01-01

    A widespread outbreak by Salmonella infantis, infecting a total of 226 people, occurred in Finland at the beginning of August 1986. Of those infected, 107 were railway passengers, 91 were airline passengers and 28 were employed in a food processing establishment. The outbreak among the railway passengers was caused by egg sandwiches, the airline passengers were infected by a meal served on board and the catering employees by the breakfast served in the establishment. The outbreak was caused by food prepared in the establishment's kitchen. The employees' breakfasts had probably been contaminated by an employee who was a symptom-free Salmonella infantis carrier, and a number of the employees subsequently became infected, leading to widespread contamination of the food prepared in the establishment. The spread of the outbreak was further influenced by a heatwave at the time and by shortcomings in the cold storage facilities. The kitchen's hygiene supervision and the quality control of its output were reorganized after the outbreak.

  4. GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David; Nyenhuis, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin; Pappenberger, Florian

    2013-04-01

    "Understanding the Earth system — its weather, climate, oceans, atmosphere, water, land, geodynamics, natural resources, ecosystems, and natural and human-induced hazards — is crucial to enhancing human health, safety and welfare, alleviating human suffering including poverty, protecting the global environment, reducing disaster losses, and achieving sustainable development. Observations of the Earth system constitute critical input for advancing this understanding." With this in mind, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) started implementing the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). GEOWOW, short for "GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water", is supporting this objective. GEOWOW's main challenge is to improve Earth observation data discovery, accessibility and exploitability, and to evolve GEOSS in terms of interoperability, standardization and functionality. One of the main goals behind the GEOWOW project is to demonstrate the value of the TIGGE archive in interdisciplinary applications, providing a vast amount of useful and easily accessible information to the users through the GEO Common Infrastructure (GCI). GEOWOW aims at developing funcionalities that will allow easy discovery, access and use of TIGGE archive data and of in-situ observations, e.g. from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), to support applications such as river discharge forecasting.TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) is a key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. The TIGGE archive consists of ensemble weather forecast data from ten global NWP centres, starting from October 2006, which has been made available for scientific research. The TIGGE archive has been used to analyse hydro-meteorological forecasts of flooding in Europe as well as in China. In general the analysis has been favourable in terms of

  5. The Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on Fire Outbreaks in the Amazon Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, L. B. M.; Romao, M.; Freitas, A. C. V.

    2017-12-01

    The combination of alterations in land use cover and severe droughts may dramatically increase fire outbreaks. Tropical convection in the Amazon Basin is regulated mainly by large-scale atmospheric systems such as the Walker circulation. Many of the documented drought episodes in the Amazon occurred during intense El Niño events such as those recorded in 1926, 1983, 1997-1998, and 2010. However, not all El Niño events are related to drought in the Amazon. Recent studies have also pointed out the importance of the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the modulation of the Amazonian climate, as observed during the drought episodes in 2005 and 2010. This work investigates the fire outbreak tendency in the Amazon region, and the influence of large-scale circulation on these events. Data from the Fire Program of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE) show a substantial increase in the number of fire outbreaks in the last few years, especially during 2016. However, in the 2017 year a sharp drop in fire outbreaks reaching levels similar to the years prior to 2016 is being noted, already showing a reduction of 54% in relation to the preceding 2016 year. The 2015-2016 period was marked by one of the strongest El Niño in history. This was reflected in the increase of the number of fire outbreaks due to the increase of the drought and temperature elevation period. On the other hand, the 2017 year is being characterized by a condition of neutrality in relation to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, and have overall presented positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. Variations of these systems and their relation to fire outbreaks is demonstrated.

  6. Post-Palaeozoic evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda by tectonically controlled deep weathering and stripping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, R. G.; Howard, K. W. F.

    1998-11-01

    A model for the evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda is developed using available geotectonic, climatic, sedimentological and chronological data. The model demonstrates the pivotal role of tectonic uplift in inducing cycles of stripping, and tectonic quiescence for cycles of deep weathering. It is able to account for the development of key landforms, such as inselbergs and duricrust-capped plateaux, which previous hypotheses of landscape evolution that are based on climatic or eustatic controls are unable to explain. Development of the Ugandan landscape is traced back to the Permian. Following late Palaeozoic glaciation, a trend towards warmer and more humid climates through the Mesozoic enabled deep weathering of the Jurassic/mid-Cretaceous surface in Uganda during a period of prolonged tectonic quiescence. Uplift associated with the opening South Atlantic Ocean terminated this cycle and instigated a cycle of stripping between the mid-Cretaceous and early Miocene. Deep weathering on the succeeding Miocene to recent (African) surface has occurred from Miocene to present but has been interrupted in the areas adjacent to the western rift where development of a new drainage base level has prompted cycles of stripping in the Miocene and Pleistocene.

  7. Arctic-midlatitude weather linkages in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin

    2018-06-01

    There is intense public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact midlatitude weather such as cold air outbreaks on the central and east side of continents. Although there is progress in linkage research for eastern Asia, a clear gap is conformation for North America. We show two stationary temperature/geopotential height patterns where warmer Arctic temperatures have reinforced existing tropospheric jet stream wave amplitudes over North America: a Greenland/Baffin Block pattern during December 2010 and an Alaska Ridge pattern during December 2017. Even with continuing Arctic warming over the past decade, other recent eastern US winter months were less susceptible for an Arctic linkage: the jet stream was represented by either zonal flow, progressive weather systems, or unfavorable phasing of the long wave pattern. The present analysis lays the scientific controversy over the validity of linkages to the inherent intermittency of jet stream dynamics, which provides only an occasional bridge between Arctic thermodynamic forcing and extended midlatitude weather events.

  8. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  9. Inferences from the Chronology of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks in Human Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, C.; Usmani, M.; Colwell, R. R.; Jutla, A.

    2017-12-01

    Dengue and Zika virus are becoming global health threats. With a recent resurgence of Zika virus in the Americas, there is a renewed interest to understand the physical pathways on interactions of vectors with human population. However, the challenge is in the availability of the vectors and viruses in regions that have suffered from outbreaks of these infections. Aedes spp. mosquitoes are the primary vectors of both Zika and Dengue viruses. The critical question is how one species of mosquito is able to transmit two different infections. Therefore, there is a need to understand the coherence and co-emergence behavior of Dengue and Zika infections. Our dominant hypothesis is that Dengue precedes Zika viruses. Here, we will show a global chronological trend of Dengue and Zika virus, or how an outbreak of dengue may lead to an outbreak of Zika virus, as regions with Zika virus outbreaks had demonstrated peak dengue incidences in prior months. We will also present global trends on key climatological and weather processes as a function of the emergence of these two viruses. We anticipate that this information can be used concurrently with geographical and meteorological information to more accurately predict the spread of Zika virus.

  10. Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease Updated:Sep 16,2015 Th is winter ... and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Cardiovascular Conditions • Conditions Home • Arrhythmia and Atrial Fibrillation • Cardiac ...

  11. Detection of Weather Radar Clutter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    classification and use a range of different techniques and input data. The first method uses external information from multispectral satellite images to detect clutter. The information in the visual, near-infrared, and infrared parts of the spectrum can be used to distinguish between cloud and cloud-free areas......Weather radars provide valuable information on precipitation in the atmosphere but due to the way radars work, not only precipitation is observed by the weather radar. Weather radar clutter, echoes from non-precipitating targets, occur frequently in the data, resulting in lowered data quality....... Especially in the application of weather radar data in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting a high data quality is important. Clutter detection is one of the key components in achieving this goal. This thesis presents three methods for detection of clutter. The methods use supervised...

  12. KZHU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  13. Practical Weathering for Geology Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodder, A. Peter

    1990-01-01

    The design and data management of an activity to study weathering by increasing the rate of mineral dissolution in a microwave oven is described. Data analysis in terms of parabolic and first-order kinetics is discussed. (CW)

  14. Northern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Daily Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Part I consists of plotted and analyzed daily maps of sea-level and 500-mb maps for 0300, 0400, 1200, 1230, 1300, and 1500...

  15. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    around the sun. If weather is also governed by physical laws, why ... radiate according to Planck's law (higher the temperature of the black body ..... First law of thermodynamics. Relates ... (Third Edition) Charles E Merrill Publishing. Company.

  16. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  17. KZOA Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  18. KZJX Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  19. KZBW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  20. KZFW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  1. KZSE Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  2. KZME Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  3. KZDV Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  4. KZNY Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  5. KZDC Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  6. KZAU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  7. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  8. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matua, Gerald Amandu; Van der Wal, Dirk Mostert; Locsin, Rozzano C

    2015-01-01

    Ebola hemorrhagic fever, caused by the highly virulent RNA virus of the filoviridae family, has become one of the world's most feared pathogens. The virus induces acute fever and death, often associated with hemorrhagic symptoms in up to 90% of infected patients. The known sub-types of the virus are Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest, Bundibugyo and Reston Ebola viruses. In the past, outbreaks were limited to the East and Central African tropical belt with the exception of Ebola Reston outbreaks that occurred in animal facilities in the Philippines, USA and Italy. The on-going outbreak in West Africa that is causing numerous deaths and severe socio-economic challenges has resulted in widespread anxiety globally. This panic may be attributed to the intense media interest, the rapid spread of the virus to other countries like United States and Spain, and moreover, to the absence of an approved treatment or vaccine. Informed by this widespread fear and anxiety, we analyzed the commonly used strategies to manage and control Ebola outbreaks and proposed new approaches that could improve epidemic management and control during future outbreaks. We based our recommendations on epidemic management practices employed during recent outbreaks in East, Central and West Africa, and synthesis of peer-reviewed publications as well as published "field" information from individuals and organizations recently involved in the management of Ebola epidemics. The current epidemic management approaches are largely "reactive", with containment efforts aimed at halting spread of existing outbreaks. We recommend that for better outcomes, in addition to "reactive" interventions, "pre-emptive" strategies also need to be instituted. We conclude that emphasizing both "reactive" and "pre-emptive" strategies is more likely to lead to better epidemic preparedness and response at individual, community, institutional, and government levels, resulting in timely containment of future Ebola outbreaks. Copyright

  9. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  10. Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

  11. Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

  12. EPIDEMIOLOGY OF CHOLERA OUTBREAK IN KAMPALA ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hi-tech

    77 No. 7 July 2000. EPIDEMIOLOGY OF CHOLERA OUTBREAK IN KAMPALA, UGANDA ... spread much (106 cases in 1995), resulting in a low level of immunity ... An intensive social ... development of a network of community health workers,.

  13. Infection control during filoviral hemorrhagic fever outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N Raabe Vanessa

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Breaking the human-to-human transmission cycle remains the cornerstone of infection control during filoviral (Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever outbreaks. This requires effective identification and isolation of cases, timely contact tracing and monitoring, proper usage of barrier personal protection gear by health workers, and safely conducted burials. Solely implementing these measures is insufficient for infection control; control efforts must be culturally sensitive and conducted in a transparent manner to promote the necessary trust between the community and infection control team in order to succeed. This article provides a review of the literature on infection control during filoviral hemorrhagic fever outbreaks focusing on outbreaks in a developing setting and lessons learned from previous outbreaks. The primary search database used to review the literature was PUBMED, the National Library of Medicine website.

  14. Carcass Management During Avian Influenza Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page on Avian Influenza (AI) describes carcass management during Avian Flu outbreaks, including who oversees carcass management, how they're managed, environmental concerns from carcass management, and disinfection. The page also describes what AI is.

  15. Giardiasis in Bergen. Outbreak and clinical consequences.

    OpenAIRE

    Wensaas, Knut-Arne

    2011-01-01

    Background Giardia lamblia is a common cause of waterborne disease. It is endemic in many parts of the world, especially where sanitation is poor, but in Europe and North America it is most often encountered in outbreaks following contamination of drinking water. The first registered outbreak of giardiasis affecting a large community in Norway happened in Bergen in the autumn of 2004. The reservoir “Svartediket” was the source, and the water probably held Giardia cysts for s...

  16. Weathering of the New Albany Shale, Kentucky, USA: I. Weathering zones defined by mineralogy and major-element composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuttle, M.L.W.; Breit, G.N.

    2009-01-01

    Comprehensive understanding of chemical and mineralogical changes induced by weathering is valuable information when considering the supply of nutrients and toxic elements from rocks. Here minerals that release and fix major elements during progressive weathering of a bed of Devonian New Albany Shale in eastern Kentucky are documented. Samples were collected from unweathered core (parent shale) and across an outcrop excavated into a hillside 40 year prior to sampling. Quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogical data record progressive shale alteration across the outcrop. Mineral compositional changes reflect subtle alteration processes such as incongruent dissolution and cation exchange. Altered primary minerals include K-feldspars, plagioclase, calcite, pyrite, and chlorite. Secondary minerals include jarosite, gypsum, goethite, amorphous Fe(III) oxides and Fe(II)-Al sulfate salt (efflorescence). The mineralogy in weathered shale defines four weathered intervals on the outcrop-Zones A-C and soil. Alteration of the weakly weathered shale (Zone A) is attributed to the 40-a exposure of the shale. In this zone, pyrite oxidization produces acid that dissolves calcite and attacks chlorite, forming gypsum, jarosite, and minor efflorescent salt. The pre-excavation, active weathering front (Zone B) is where complete pyrite oxidation and alteration of feldspar and organic matter result in increased permeability. Acidic weathering solutions seep through the permeable shale and evaporate on the surface forming abundant efflorescent salt, jarosite and minor goethite. Intensely weathered shale (Zone C) is depleted in feldspars, chlorite, gypsum, jarosite and efflorescent salts, but has retained much of its primary quartz, illite and illite-smectite. Goethite and amorphous FE(III) oxides increase due to hydrolysis of jarosite. Enhanced permeability in this zone is due to a 14% loss of the original mass in parent shale. Denudation rates suggest that characteristics of Zone C

  17. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  18. Weather Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Bobriková

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on valuation of a weather derivative with payoffs depending on temperature. We use historical data from the weather station in the Slovak town Košice to obtain unique prices of option contracts in an incomplete market. Numerical examples of prices of some contracts are presented, using the Burn analysis. We provide an example of how a weather contract can be designed to hedge the financial risk of a suboptimal temperature condition. The comparative comparison of the selected option hedging strategies has shown the best results for the producers in agricultural industries who hedges against an unfavourable weather conditions. The results of analysis proved that by buying put option or call option, the farmer establishes the highest payoff in the case of temperature decrease or increase. The Long Straddle Strategy is the most expensive but is available to the farmer who hedges against a high volatility in temperature movement. We conclude with the findings that weather derivatives could be useful tools to diminish the financial losses for agricultural industries highly dependent for temperature.

  19. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    OpenAIRE

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

  20. Weather Regime-Dependent Predictability: Sequentially Linked High-Impact Weather Events over the United States during March 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Winters, A. C.; Keyser, D.

    2016-12-01

    High-impact weather events (HWEs), defined by episodes of excessive precipitation or periods of well above or well below normal temperatures, can pose important predictability challenges on medium-range (8-16 day) time scales. Furthermore, HWEs can contribute disproportionately to temperature and precipitation anomaly statistics for a particular season. This disproportionate contribution suggests that HWEs need to be considered in describing and understanding the dynamical and thermodynamic processes that operate at the weather-climate intersection. HWEs typically develop in conjunction with highly amplified flow patterns that permit an extensive latitudinal exchange of polar and tropical air masses. Highly amplified flow patterns over North America often occur in response to a reconfiguration of the large-scale upstream flow pattern over the North Pacific Ocean. The large-scale flow pattern over the North Pacific, North America, and western North Atlantic during the latter half of March 2016 was characterized by frequent cyclonic wave breaking (CWB). This large-scale flow pattern enabled three sequentially linked HWEs to develop over the continental United States. The first HWE was a challenging-to-predict cyclogenesis event on 23-24 March in the central Plains that resulted in both a major snowstorm along the Colorado Front Range and a severe weather outbreak over the central and southern Plains. The second HWE was a severe weather outbreak that occurred over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys on 27-28 March. The third HWE was the development of well below normal temperatures over the eastern United States that followed the formation of a high-latitude omega block over northwestern North America during 28 March-1 April. This study will examine (1) the role that CWB over the North Pacific and North America played in the evolution of the flow pattern during late-March 2016 and the development of the three HWEs and (2) the skill of GFS operational and ensemble

  1. Establishing a milkborne disease outbreak profile: potential food defense implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newkirk, Ryan; Hedberg, Craig; Bender, Jeff

    2011-03-01

    The main objectives of this study were to establish baseline characteristics for milkborne outbreaks, establish an expected milkborne outbreak profile, and identify potential indicators of food terrorism. This study used 1990-2006 data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Annual Listings of Disease Outbreaks and the Foodborne Outbreak Database (FOOD) to establish epidemiologic baseline characteristics for disease outbreaks associated with fluid milk. FOOD data from 2007 were used to qualitatively validate the potential of the baseline characteristics and the expected outbreak profile. Eighty-three fluid milkborne outbreaks were reported between 1990 and 2006, resulting in 3621 illnesses. The mean number of illnesses per outbreak was 43.6 (illness range: 2-1644). Consumption of unpasteurized milk was associated with 55.4% of reported outbreaks. Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli, and Salmonella spp. caused 51.2%, 10.8%, and 9.6% of reported outbreaks, respectively. Private homes accounted for 41.0% of outbreak locations. Number ill, outbreak location, and etiology were the primary characteristics which could signal a potential intentional contamination event. In 2007, one pasteurized milk outbreak caused by Listeria was flagged as aberrative compared with the expected outbreak profile. The creation and dissemination of expected outbreak profiles and epidemiologic baseline characteristics allow public health and Homeland Security officials to quickly assess the potential of intentional food contamination. A faster public health and medical system response can result in decreased morbidity and mortality.

  2. Space Weather, Environment and Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean

    2006-01-01

    Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

  3. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  4. Vodcasting space weather: The Space Weather FX vodcast series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins Petersen, C.; Erickson, P. J.

    2008-06-01

    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of nine vodcasts (video podcasts) being created by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, Massachusetts, USA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, Massachusetts, USA). This paper describes the project, its science and outreach goals, and introduces the principal participants.

  5. Impact of the 4 April 2014 Saharan dust outbreak on the photovoltaic power generation in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, Daniel; Steiner, Andrea; Bachmann, Vanessa; Gasch, Philipp; Förstner, Jochen; Deetz, Konrad; Vogel, Bernhard; Vogel, Heike

    2017-11-01

    The importance for reliable forecasts of incoming solar radiation is growing rapidly, especially for those countries with an increasing share in photovoltaic (PV) power production. The reliability of solar radiation forecasts depends mainly on the representation of clouds and aerosol particles absorbing and scattering radiation. Especially under extreme aerosol conditions, numerical weather prediction has a systematic bias in the solar radiation forecast. This is caused by the design of numerical weather prediction models, which typically account for the direct impact of aerosol particles on radiation using climatological mean values and the impact on cloud formation assuming spatially and temporally homogeneous aerosol concentrations. These model deficiencies in turn can lead to significant economic losses under extreme aerosol conditions. For Germany, Saharan dust outbreaks occurring 5 to 15 times per year for several days each are prominent examples for conditions, under which numerical weather prediction struggles to forecast solar radiation adequately. We investigate the impact of mineral dust on the PV-power generation during a Saharan dust outbreak over Germany on 4 April 2014 using ICON-ART, which is the current German numerical weather prediction model extended by modules accounting for trace substances and related feedback processes. We find an overall improvement of the PV-power forecast for 65 % of the pyranometer stations in Germany. Of the nine stations with very high differences between forecast and measurement, eight stations show an improvement. Furthermore, we quantify the direct radiative effects and indirect radiative effects of mineral dust. For our study, direct effects account for 64 %, indirect effects for 20 % and synergistic interaction effects for 16 % of the differences between the forecast including mineral dust radiative effects and the forecast neglecting mineral dust.

  6. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control

    OpenAIRE

    Matua, Gerald Amandu; Wal, Dirk Mostert Van der; Locsin, Rozzano C.

    2015-01-01

    Ebola hemorrhagic fever, caused by the highly virulent RNA virus of the filoviridae family, has become one of the world's most feared pathogens. The virus induces acute fever and death, often associated with hemorrhagic symptoms in up to 90% of infected patients. The known sub-types of the virus are Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest, Bundibugyo and Reston Ebola viruses. In the past, outbreaks were limited to the East and Central African tropical belt with the exception of Ebola Reston outbreaks that o...

  7. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  8. Recent Activities on the Embrace Space Weather Regional Warning Center: the New Space Weather Data Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dal Lago, Alisson; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Takahashi, Hisao; Costa, D. Joaquim; Banik Padua, Marcelo; Campos Velho, Haroldo

    2016-07-01

    On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is known by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement "Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial" Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The mission of the Embrace/INPE program is to monitor the Solar-Terrestrial environment, the magnetosphere, the upper atmosphere and the ground induced currents to prevent effects on technological and economic activities. The Embrace/INPE system monitors the physical parameters of the Sun-Earth environment, such as Active Regions (AR) in the Sun and solar radiation by using radio telescope, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) information by satellite and ground-based cosmic ray monitoring, geomagnetic activity by the magnetometer network, and ionospheric disturbance by ionospheric sounders and using data collected by four GPS receiver network, geomagnetic activity by a magnetometer network, and provides a forecasting for Total Electronic Content (TEC) - 24 hours ahead - using a version of the SUPIM model which assimilates the two latter data using nudging approach. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. Regarding outreach, it has being published a daily bulletin in Portuguese and English with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus. Recently, a comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under commissioning to allow an easy and direct access to all the space weather data collected by Embrace through the Embrace web Portal. The information being released encompasses data from: (a) the Embrace Digisonde Network (Embrace DigiNet) that monitors

  9. Measles & rubella outbreaks in Maharashtra State, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidya, Sunil R.; Kamble, Madhukar B.; Chowdhury, Deepika T.; Kumbhar, Neelakshi S.

    2016-01-01

    Background & objectives: Under the outbreak-based measles surveillance in Maharashtra State the National Institute of Virology at Pune receives 3-5 serum samples from each outbreak and samples from the local hospitals in Pune for laboratory diagnosis. This report describes one year data on the measles and rubella serology, virus isolation and genotyping. Methods: Maharashtra State Health Agencies investigated 98 suspected outbreaks between January-December 2013 in the 20 districts. Altogether, 491 serum samples were received from 20 districts and 126 suspected cases from local hospitals. Samples were tested for the measles and rubella IgM antibodies by commercial enzyme immunoassay (EIA). To understand the diagnostic utility, a subset of serum samples (n=53) was tested by measles focus reduction neutralization test (FRNT). Further, 37 throat swabs and 32 urine specimens were tested by measles reverse transcription (RT)-PCR and positive products were sequenced. Virus isolation was performed in Vero hSLAM cells. Results: Of the 98 suspected measles outbreaks, 61 were confirmed as measles, 12 as rubella and 21 confirmed as the mixed outbreaks. Four outbreaks remained unconfirmed. Of the 126 cases from the local hospitals, 91 were confirmed for measles and three for rubella. Overall, 93.6 per cent (383/409) confirmed measles cases were in the age group of 0-15 yr. Measles virus was detected in 18 of 38 specimens obtained from the suspected cases. Sequencing of PCR products revealed circulation of D4 (n=9) and D8 (n=9) strains. Four measles viruses (three D4 & one D8) were isolated. Interpretation & conclusions: Altogether, 94 measles and rubella outbreaks were confirmed in 2013 in the State of Maharasthra indicating the necessity to increase measles vaccine coverage in the State. PMID:27121521

  10. Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marković Todor

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.

  11. Root-driven Weathering Impacts on Mineral-Organic Associations in Deep Soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiluweit, M.; Garcia Arredondo, M.; Tfaily, M. M.; Kukkadapu, R. K.; Schulz, M. S.; Lawrence, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Plant roots dramatically reshape the soil environments through the release of organic compounds. While root-derived organic compounds are recognized as an important source of soil C, their role in promoting weathering reactions has largely been overlooked. On the one hand, root-driven weathering may generate mineral-organic associations, which can protect soil C for centuries to millennia. On the other hand, root-driven weathering also transforms minerals, potentially disrupting protective mineral-organic associations in the process. Hence root-derived C may not only initiate C accumulation, but also diminish C stocks through disruption of mineral-organic associations. Here we determined the impact of rhizogenic weathering on mineral-organic associations, and associated changes in C storage, across the Santa Cruz Marine Terrace chronosequence (65ka-226ka). Using a combination of high-resolution mass spectrometry, Mössbauer, and X-ray (micro)spectroscopy, we examined mineral-organic associations of deep soil horizons characterized by intense rhizogenic weathering gradients. Initial rhizogenic weathering dramatically increased C stocks, which is directly linked to an increase of microbially-derived C bound to monomeric Fe and Al and nano-goethite. As weathering proceeded, the soil C stocks declined concurrent with an increasingly plant-derived C signature and decreasing crystallinity. X-ray spectromicroscopic analyses revealed strong spatial associations between C and Fe during initial weathering stages, indicative of protective mineral-organic associations. In contrast, later weathering stages showed weaker spatial relationships between C and Fe. We conclude that rhizogenic weathering enhance C storage by creating protective mineral-organic associations in the initial weathering stages. As root-driven weathering proceeds, minerals are transformed into more crystalline phases that retain lower amounts of C. Our results demonstrate that root-induced weathering

  12. Restoration of severely weathered wood

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Sam. Williams; Mark. Knaebe

    2000-01-01

    Severely weathered window units were used to test various restoration methods and pretreatments. Sanded and unsanded units were pretreated with a consolidant or water repellent preservative, finished with an oil- or latex-based paint system, and exposed outdoors near Madison, WI, for five years. Pretreatments were applied to both window sashes (stiles and rails) and...

  13. Weather delay costs to trucking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    Estimates of the nations freight sector of transportation range to upwards of $600 billion of total gross domestic product with 70 percent of total value and 60 percent of total weight moving by truck. Weather-related delays can add significantly ...

  14. Synoptic weather conditions during BOBMEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    sions when the strong wind field appeared spread over the peninsula and central India. This was also seen both in OLR and in vertical velocity fields prepared by National Centre for Medium. Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). A band of low OLR (150–160watts/sqm) could be seen in the south and adjoining central ...

  15. NOAA Weather Radio - All Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Non-Zero All Hazards Logo Emergency Alert Description Event Codes Fact Sheet FAQ Organization Search -event information for all types of hazards: weather (e.g., tornadoes, floods), natural (e.g Management or Preparedness, civil defense, police or mayor/commissioner sets up linkages to send messages on

  16. A decade of weather extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

  17. Fatigue Strength of Weathering Steel

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kunz, Ludvík; Lukáš, Petr; Klusák, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 1 (2012), s. 18-22 ISSN 1392-1320 Grant - others:GA MPO(CZ) FT/TA5/076 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : fatigue of weathering steel * corrosion pits * fatigue notch factor Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 0.522, year: 2012

  18. Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Hassan; Eshow, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview, presents the high level software architecture of DWR, based on the CTAS software framework and the Direct-To automation tool. The document also covers external and internal data flows, required dataset, changes to the Direct-To software for DWR, collection of software statistics, and the code structure.

  19. Skywatch: The Western Weather Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, Richard A.

    The western United States is a region of mountains and valleys with the world's largest ocean next door. Its weather is unique. This book discusses how water, wind, and environmental conditions combine to create the climatic conditions of the region. Included are sections describing: fronts; cyclones; precipitation; storms; tornadoes; hurricanes;…

  20. Accelerated laboratory weathering of acrylic lens materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, Thomas; Richter, Steffen; Kogler, René; Pasierb, Mike; Walby, Christopher

    2015-09-01

    Flat samples from various poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) formulations were subjected to outdoor weathering in Arizona and Florida, EMMAQUA® accelerated outdoor weathering, and two accelerated laboratory weathering procedures at 3 Sun irradiance which, imitate dry (Arizona) and wet (Florida) conditions. The main mode of degradation is yellowing and not the generation of haze for any weathering procedure within the investigated radiant exposure. Higher UV absorber concentrations lead to smaller changes in optical properties and in the resulting relative concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) module efficiencies. Comparison of sample properties after various weathering procedures reveals that the influence of weathering factors other than radiant exposure depends on the sample as well.

  1. Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Schauberger, Bernhard; Arneth, Almut; Balkovič, Juraj; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Müller, Christoph; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schewe, Jacob; Schmid, Erwin; Warszawski, Lila; Levermann, Anders

    2017-06-01

    Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

  2. The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

  3. Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Huang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDS: Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas, and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR:1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.01-2.28, monthly minimum temperature ((oC (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93, monthly relative humidity (% (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37, monthly rainfall (mm (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81 and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (% (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50. In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.

  4. [Hospital hygiene - outbreak management of nosocomial infections].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerwat, Klaus; Wulf, Hinnerk

    2012-04-01

    According to §6, section 3 of the German Protection against Infections Act [Infektionsschutzgesetz (IfSG)] an outbreak is defined as the occurrence in large numbers of nosocomial infections for which an epidemiological relationship is probable or can be assumed. About 2-10% of nosocomial infections in hospitals (about 5% in intensive care wards) occur within the framework of an outbreak. The heaped occurrence of nosocomial infections can be declared according to the prescribed surveillance of nosocomial infections (§23 IfSG) when, in the course of this assessment, a statistically significant increase in the rate of infections becomes apparent. On the other hand, the occurrence of an outbreak can also be recognized through the vigilance of all involved personnel and a general sensibilization towards this subject. The names of patients involved in outbreaks need not be reported to the responsible health authorities. As a consequence of the report the health authorities become involved in the investigation to determine the cause and its elimination, and to provide support and advice. The outbreak management should be oriented on the respective recommendations of the Robert Koch Institute. © Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart · New York.

  5. Simple visit behavior unifies complex Zika outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.D. Manrique

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available New outbreaks of Zika in the U.S. are imminent. Human nature dictates that many individuals will continue to revisit affected ‘Ground Zero’ patches, whether out of choice, work or family reasons − yet this feature is missing from traditional epidemiological analyses. Here we show that this missing visit-revisit mechanism is by itself capable of explaining quantitatively the 2016 human Zika outbreaks in all three Ground Zero patches. Our findings reveal counterintuitive ways in which this human flow can be managed to tailor any future outbreak’s duration, severity and time-to-peak. Effective public health planning can leverage these results to impact the evolution of future outbreaks via soft control of the overall human flow, as well as to suggest best-practice visitation behavior for local residents.

  6. Landscape Epidemiology of Tularemia Outbreaks in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, Kerstin; Bäck, Erik; Eliasson, Henrik; Berglund, Lennart; Granberg, Malin; Karlsson, Linda; Larsson, Pär; Forsman, Mats

    2009-01-01

    Summer outbreaks of tularemia that occurred from 1995 through 2005 in 2 locations in Sweden affected 441 persons. We performed an epidemiologic investigation of these outbreaks using a novel strategy, involving high-resolution genotyping of Francisella tularensis isolates obtained from 136 patients (using 18 genetic markers developed from 6 F. tularensis genome sequences) and interviews with the patients. Strong spatial associations were found between F. tularensis subpopulations and the places of disease transmission; infection by some subpopulations occurred within areas as small as 2 km2, indicating unidentified environmental point sources of tularemia. In both locations, disease clusters were associated with recreational areas beside water, and genetic subpopulations were present throughout the tularemia season and persisted over years. High-resolution genotyping in combination with patients’ statements about geographic places of disease transmission provided valuable indications of likely sources of infection and the causal genotypes during these tularemia outbreaks. PMID:19961673

  7. An Outbreak of Foodborne Botulism in Ontario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mona R Loutfy

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Botulism is a rare paralytic illness resulting from a potent neurotoxin produced by Clostridium botulinum. Botulism in Canada is predominately due to C botulinum type E and affects mainly the First Nations and Inuit populations. The most recent outbreak of botulism in Ontario was in Ottawa in 1991 and was caused by C botulinum type A. We report an outbreak of foodborne type B botulism in Ontario, which implicated home-canned tomatoes. The outbreak was characterized by mild symptoms in two cases and moderately severe illness in one case. The investigation shows the importance of considering the diagnosis of botulism in patients presenting with cranial nerve and autonomic dysfunction, especially when combined with gastrointestinal complaints; it also highlights the importance of proper home canning technique.

  8. NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit is an application that provides simple visualization and data export of weather and climatological data archived at NCDC. The...

  9. Vehicle automation and weather : challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-25

    Adverse weather has major impacts on the safety and operations of all roads, from signalized arterials to Interstate highways. Weather affects driver behavior, vehicle performance, pavement friction, and roadway infrastructure, thereby increasing the...

  10. National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

    Science.gov (United States)

    weather.gov Site Map News Organization Search for: SPC NCEP All NOAA Search by city or zip ... Fire Wx Outlooks RSS Feeds E-Mail Alerts Weather Information Storm Reports Storm Reports Dev. NWS Hazards ...

  11. Integrating Sphere-based Weathering Device

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:In the artificial ultraviolet (UV) weathering of materials, a need exists for weathering devices that can uniformly illuminate test specimens with a high...

  12. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  13. World War II Weather Record Transmittances

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World War II Weather Record Transmittances are a record of the weather and meteorological data observed during World War II and transferred to the archive. It...

  14. Newspaper Clippings and Articles (Weather-related)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather-related newspaper articles and photos, almost exclusively from Baltimore, MD and nearby areas. Includes storm damage, rainfall reports, and weather's affect...

  15. Fire Danger and Fire Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (formerly Weather Bureau) and Forest Service developed a program to track meteorological conditions conducive to forest fires, resulting...

  16. Adaptive Weather Forecasting using Local Meteorological Information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    In general, meteorological parameters such as temperature, rain and global radiation are important for agricultural systems. Anticipating on future conditions is most often needed in these systems. Weather forecasts then become of substantial importance. As weather forecasts are subject to

  17. SIGWX Charts - High Level Significant Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — High level significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts are provided for the en-route portion of international flights. NOAA's National Weather Service Aviation Center...

  18. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

  19. Detecting and Responding to a Dengue Outbreak: Evaluation of Existing Strategies in Country Outbreak Response Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Harrington

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Dengue outbreaks are occurring with increasing frequency and intensity. Evidence-based epidemic preparedness and effective response are now a matter of urgency. Therefore, we have analysed national and municipal dengue outbreak response plans. Methods. Thirteen country plans from Asia, Latin America and Australia, and one international plan were obtained from the World Health Organization. The information was transferred to a data analysis matrix where information was extracted according to predefined and emerging themes and analysed for scope, inconsistencies, omissions, and usefulness. Findings. Outbreak response planning currently has a considerable number of flaws. Outbreak governance was weak with a lack of clarity of stakeholder roles. Late timing of responses due to poor surveillance, a lack of combining routine data with additional alerts, and lack of triggers for initiating the response weakened the functionality of plans. Frequently an outbreak was not defined, and early response mechanisms based on alert signals were neglected. There was a distinct lack of consideration of contextual influences which can affect how an outbreak detection and response is managed. Conclusion. A model contingency plan for dengue outbreak prediction, detection, and response may help national disease control authorities to develop their own more detailed and functional context specific plans.

  20. Salmonellosis outbreak due to chicken contact leading to a foodborne outbreak associated with infected delicatessen workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedican, Erin; Miller, Ben; Ziemer, Brian; LeMaster, Pam; Jawahir, Selina; Leano, Fe; Smith, Kirk

    2010-08-01

    Salmonella is the most common bacterial cause of foodborne outbreaks in the United States. Starting in June 2007, investigation of a cluster of Salmonella Montevideo cases with indistinguishable pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns resulted in the identification of an outbreak associated with contact with chickens purchased from a single hatchery. Nine Minnesota cases from May through August 2007 were part of this outbreak. Cases with the outbreak PFGE pattern of Salmonella Montevideo continued to occur in Minnesota after August, but none of these cases reported chicken contact. The majority of these cases resided in the same town in rural Minnesota. Routine interviews revealed that all cases from these counties purchased groceries from the same local grocery store, with two specifically reporting consuming items from the grocery store delicatessen in the week before illness. As a result, an investigation into the delicatessen was initiated. Illness histories and stool samples were collected from all delicatessen employees, and food and environmental samples were collected. None of the employees reported experiencing recent gastrointestinal symptoms, but the outbreak PFGE subtype of Salmonella Montevideo was identified from stool from two food workers. Food and environmental samples collected tested negative for Salmonella. One of the positive employees reported having chickens at home, but the animals did not test positive for Salmonella. The positive food workers were excluded from work until they had two consecutive negative stool cultures for Salmonella. There was no evidence of ongoing transmission thereafter. This was an outbreak of Salmonella Montevideo infections that began as an animal-contact-associated outbreak which subsequently resulted in a foodborne outbreak associated with infected food workers. These outbreaks illustrate the complex epidemiology of salmonellosis.

  1. Hydrogen outbreak of Zirconium Molybdate Hihydrate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miura, Yasuhiko; Fukuda, Kazuhiro; Ochi, Eiji

    2008-01-01

    JNFL is planning to construct a facility for enclosing the hull and end pieces produced due to reprocessing of spent fuel into stainless canisters after compressing, while those hull and end pieces enclosed into the stainless canisters are called 'compressed hulls'. Since the compressed hulls contain moisture absorbent Zirconium Molybdate Hihydrate accompanying hull and end pieces, there is a risk of outbreak of radiolysisradiolysis gas such as hydrogen, etc. by radiolysisradiolysis. This report intends to state the result of radiation irradiation experiment with the purpose of examining the volume of hydrogen outbreak from Zirconium Molybdate Hihydrate of the compressed hulls. (author)

  2. Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

  3. 49 CFR 195.224 - Welding: Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Welding: Weather. 195.224 Section 195.224 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... PIPELINE Construction § 195.224 Welding: Weather. Welding must be protected from weather conditions that...

  4. The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

    2002-01-01

    The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

  5. The Early Years: The Wonders of Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy

    2013-01-01

    This article reports on the wonders of winter weather, as it often inspires teachers' and students' interest in collecting weather data, especially if snow falls. Beginning weather data collection in preschool will introduce children to the concepts of making regular observations of natural phenomena, recording the observations (data),…

  6. 36 CFR 910.71 - Weather protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Weather protection. 910.71 Section 910.71 Parks, Forests, and Public Property PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION GENERAL... DEVELOPMENT AREA Glossary of Terms § 910.71 Weather protection. Weather protection means a seasonal or...

  7. Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are

  8. Cave breakdown by vadose weathering.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osborne R. Armstrong L.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Vadose weathering is a significant mechanism for initiating breakdown in caves. Vadose weathering of ore bodies, mineral veins, palaeokarst deposits, non-carbonate keystones and impure, altered or fractured bedrock, which is intersected by caves, will frequently result in breakdown. Breakdown is an active, ongoing process. Breakdown occurs throughout the vadose zone, and is not restricted to large diameter passages, or to cave ceilings. The surfaces of disarticulated blocks are commonly coated, rather than having fresh broken faces, and blocks continue to disintegrate after separating from the bedrock. Not only gypsum, but also hydromagnesite and aragonite are responsible for crystal wedging. It is impossible to study or identify potential breakdown foci by surface surveys alone, in-cave observation and mapping are essential.

  9. Coccidioidomycosis Outbreaks, United States and Worldwide, 1940-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freedman, Michael; Jackson, Brendan R; McCotter, Orion; Benedict, Kaitlin

    2018-03-01

    Coccidioidomycosis causes substantial illness and death in the United States each year. Although most cases are sporadic, outbreaks provide insight into the clinical and environmental features of coccidioidomycosis, high-risk activities, and the geographic range of Coccidioides fungi. We identified reports published in English of 47 coccidioidomycosis outbreaks worldwide that resulted in 1,464 cases during 1940-2015. Most (85%) outbreaks were associated with environmental exposures; the 2 largest outbreaks resulted from an earthquake and a large dust storm. More than one third of outbreaks occurred in areas where the fungus was not previously known to be endemic, and more than half of outbreaks involved occupational exposures. Coccidioidomycosis outbreaks can be difficult to detect and challenging to prevent given the unknown effectiveness of environmental control methods and personal protective equipment; therefore, increased awareness of coccidioidomycosis outbreaks is needed among public health professionals, healthcare providers, and the public.

  10. Analysis of epidemiological data of foodborne outbreak reported in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mehdi Soltan Dallal

    2015-02-01

    Conclusion: The knowledge of bacterial agent of foodborne diseases and determination of antimicrobial resistance pattern are helpful to reduce the rate of foodborne outbreaks, the cost of treatment. The prevention control of outbreaks is also very important.

  11. Weather, Climate and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, T.

    2016-12-01

    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  12. Hydrologic applications of weather radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Dong-Jun; Habib, Emad; Andrieu, Hervé; Morin, Efrat

    2015-12-01

    By providing high-resolution quantitative precipitation information (QPI), weather radars have revolutionized hydrology in the last two decades. With the aid of GIS technology, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) have enabled routine high-resolution hydrologic modeling in many parts of the world. Given the ever-increasing need for higher-resolution hydrologic and water resources information for a wide range of applications, one may expect that the use of weather radar will only grow. Despite the tremendous progress, a number of significant scientific, technological and engineering challenges remain to realize its potential. New challenges are also emerging as new areas of applications are discovered, explored and pursued. The purpose of this special issue is to provide the readership with some of the latest advances, lessons learned, experiences gained, and science issues and challenges related to hydrologic applications of weather radar. The special issue features 20 contributions on various topics which reflect the increasing diversity as well as the areas of focus in radar hydrology today. The contributions may be grouped as follows:

  13. An outbreak of Salmonella gastroenteritis in an urban jail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcabes, P; O'Sullivan, B; Nadal, E; Mouzon, M

    1988-12-01

    An outbreak of gastroenteritis in New York City's largest jail involved 145 cases over a two-month period. The outbreak was unusual in that two Salmonella strains (serogroups B and D) were involved. Management of the outbreak involved screening kitchen workers by culture of stool samples, and education regarding personal hygiene. Obstacles to investigation and management of the outbreak arose out of the special nature of the jail environment; these included jurisdictional problems and high turnover of the inmate population.

  14. Space weather and power grids: findings and outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Andersson, Emmelie; Murtagh, William; Mitchison, Neil

    2014-05-01

    The impact of space weather on the power grid is a tangible and recurring threat with potentially serious consequences on society. Of particular concern is the long-distance high-voltage power grid, which is vulnerable to the effects of geomagnetic storms that can damage or destroy equipment or lead to grid collapse. In order to launch a dialogue on the topic and encourage authorities, regulators and operators in European countries and North America to learn from each other, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, and NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Centre, with the contribution of the UK Civil Contingencies Secretariat, jointly organised a workshop on the impact of extreme space weather on the power grid on 29-30 October 2013. Being structured into 6 sessions, the topics addressed were space-weather phenomena and the dynamics of their impact on the grid, experiences with prediction and now-casting in the USA and in Europe, risk assessment and preparedness, as well as policy implications arising from increased awareness of the space-weather hazard. The main workshop conclusions are: • There is increasing awareness of the risk of space-weather impact among power-grid operators and regulators and some countries consider it a priority risk to be addressed. • The predictability of space-weather phenomena is still limited and relies, in part, on data from ageing satellites. NOAA is working with NASA to launch the DSCOVR solar wind spacecraft, the replacement for the ACE satellite, in early 2015. • In some countries, models and tools for GIC prediction and grid impact assessment have been developed in collaboration with national power grids but equipment vulnerability models are scarce. • Some countries have successfully hardened their transmission grids to space-weather impact and sustained relatively little or no damage due to currents induced by past moderate space-weather events. • While there is preparedness

  15. Nanopore Sequencing as a Rapidly Deployable Ebola Outbreak Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoenen, Thomas; Groseth, Allison; Rosenke, Kyle; Fischer, Robert J; Hoenen, Andreas; Judson, Seth D; Martellaro, Cynthia; Falzarano, Darryl; Marzi, Andrea; Squires, R Burke; Wollenberg, Kurt R; de Wit, Emmie; Prescott, Joseph; Safronetz, David; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Bushmaker, Trenton; Feldmann, Friederike; McNally, Kristin; Bolay, Fatorma K; Fields, Barry; Sealy, Tara; Rayfield, Mark; Nichol, Stuart T; Zoon, Kathryn C; Massaquoi, Moses; Munster, Vincent J; Feldmann, Heinz

    2016-02-01

    Rapid sequencing of RNA/DNA from pathogen samples obtained during disease outbreaks provides critical scientific and public health information. However, challenges exist for exporting samples to laboratories or establishing conventional sequencers in remote outbreak regions. We successfully used a novel, pocket-sized nanopore sequencer at a field diagnostic laboratory in Liberia during the current Ebola virus outbreak.

  16. Cholera outbreak in districts around Lake Chilwa, Malawi: Lessons ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cholera is endemic in Malawi with seasonal outbreaks during the wet season. People living around Lake Chilwa rely on the lake for their water supply. From May 2009 to May 2010, a cholera outbreak occurred in fishing communities around Lake Chilwa. This paper describes the outbreak response and lessons learned for ...

  17. Grasshopper species composition shifts following a severe rangeland grasshopper outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little is known about how grasshopper species abundances shift during and following severe outbreaks, as sampling efforts usually end when outbreaks subside. Grasshopper densities, species composition and vegetation have infrequently been sampled during and after a severe outbreak in the western U.S...

  18. Management of Nosocomial Scabies, an Outbreak of Occupational Disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jungbauer, Frank H. W.; Veenstra-Kyuchukova, Yanka K.; Koeze, Jacqueline; KruijtSpanjer, Martijn R.; Kardaun, Sylvia H.

    Background The optimal approach to managing institutional scabies outbreaks has yet to be defined. We report on outbreak managements are needed. Methods We report on a large outbreak of scabies in three acute care wards in a tertiary university teaching hospital in the Netherlands. Results The

  19. Fish and Shellfish Associated Disease Outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, M.

    1978-01-01

    Presents a literature review of disease outbreaks related to fish and shellfish, covering publications of 1976-77. This review covers the chemical, bacterial, and viral diseases that are transmitted by fish and shellfish. A list of 50 references is also presented. (HM)

  20. Canine distemper outbreak in rhesus monkeys, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhang, Shoufeng; Fan, Quanshui; Liu, Hua; Zhang, Fuqiang; Wang, Wei; Liao, Guoyang; Hu, Rongliang

    2011-08-01

    Since 2006, canine distemper outbreaks have occurred in rhesus monkeys at a breeding farm in Guangxi, People's Republic of China. Approximately 10,000 animals were infected (25%-60% disease incidence); 5%-30% of infected animals died. The epidemic was controlled by vaccination. Amino acid sequence analysis of the virus indicated a unique strain.

  1. E. Coli: Preventing Outbreaks at Camp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Mary D.

    1996-01-01

    One strain of E. coli is not usually found in foods, but has been related to consumption of undercooked ground beef. Symptoms are stomach cramps and diarrhea, and 2-7% of infections lead to hemolytic uremic syndrome, which is life threatening. Camps can prevent outbreaks by avoiding uncooked meat on overnight campouts and requiring appropriate…

  2. Pneumonia outbreaks in calves and finishers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-19

    Pneumonia in calves and finishers. Ovarian tumour in a calf . Abortion associated with bovine herpesvirus 1 in a suckler herd. Parasitic gastroenteritis causing illthrift and death in sheep. Outbreaks of acute fasciolosis in sheep. These are among matters discussed in the disease surveillance report for December 2015 from SAC Consulting: Veterinary Services (SAC C VS). British Veterinary Association.

  3. [First ciguatera outbreak in Germany in 2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedemann, Miriam

    2016-12-01

    In November 2012, 23 cases of ciguatera with typical combinations of gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms occurred in Germany after consumption of imported tropical fish (Lutjanus spp.). A questionnaire was used to gather information on the disease course and fish consumption. All patients suffered from pathognomonic cold allodynia. Aside from two severe courses of illness, all other cases showed symptoms of moderate intensity. During a three-year follow-up, seven patients reported prolonged paresthesia for more than one year. Two of them reported further neuropathies over almost three years. This is the first time that long-term persistence of symptoms has been documented in detail. Outbreak cases were allocated to eight clusters in seven German cities. A further cluster was prevented by the successful recall of ciguatoxic fish. Three clusters were confirmed by the detection of ciguatoxin in samples of suspicious and recalled fish. An extrapolation on the basis of ciguatoxic samples revealed twenty prevented cases of ciguatera. Further officially unknown cases should be assumed. During the outbreak investigations, inadvertently falsely labelled fish species and fishing capture areas on import and retail level documents were observed. The ascertainment of cases and the outbreak investigations proved to be difficult due to inconsistent case reports to poisons centers, local health and veterinary authorities. In Germany, many physicians are unaware of the disease pattern of ciguatera and the risks caused by tropical fish. The occurrence of further outbreaks during the following years emphasizes the increasing significance of ciguatera in Germany.

  4. How Will Climate Change Impact Cholera Outbreaks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Rahimikolu, J.; Akanda, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Environmental parameters associated with cholera are well documented. However, cholera continues to be a global public health threat. Uncertainty in defining environmental processes affecting growth and multiplication of the cholera bacteria can be affected significantly by changing climate at different temporal and spatial scales, either through amplification of the hydroclimatic cycle or by enhanced variability of large scale geophysical processes. Endemic cholera in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia has a unique pattern of two seasonal peaks and there are associated with asymmetric and episodic variability in river discharge. The first cholera outbreak in spring is related with intrusion of bacteria laden coastal seawater during low river discharge. Cholera occurring during the fall season is hypothesized to be associated with high river discharge related to a cross-contamination of water resources and, therefore, a second wave of disease, a phenomenon characteristic primarily in the inland regions. Because of difficulties in establishing linkage between coarse resolutions of the Global Climate Model (GCM) output and localized disease outbreaks, the impact of climate change on diarrheal disease has not been explored. Here using the downscaling method of Support Vector Machines from HADCM3 and ECHAM models, we show how cholera outbreak patterns are changing in the Bengal Delta. Our preliminary results indicate statistically significant changes in both seasonality and magnitude in the occurrence of cholera over the next century. Endemic cholera is likely to transform into epidemic forms and new geographical areas will be at risk for cholera outbreaks.

  5. Nosocomial outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Pernille; Lundgren, Jens Dilling; Kjaeldgaard, P

    1991-01-01

    admitted as inpatients during the transmission period of the outbreak (20 June-14 August), of whom 18 (17 with AIDS, one with AIDS related complex), developed cryptosporidiosis. Two further HIV negative subjects (one departmental secretary, one visiting relative) developed cryptosporidiosis. MAIN OUTCOME...

  6. October 2012 Multistate Fungal Meningitis Outbreak

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-10-17

    This podcast gives an overview of the October 2012 multistate fungal meningitis outbreak, including symptoms to watch for and a website for up-to-date information.  Created: 10/17/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 10/17/2012.

  7. Preparing for a Pandemic Flu Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittbenner, Richard

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses the things college leaders should know and do in case of a pandemic influenza outbreak. The author talks about four principles that will guide college leaders in developing a pandemic influenza plan and presents the 10 elements of an effective college pandemic planning process.

  8. Canine Distemper Outbreak in Rhesus Monkeys, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhang, Shoufeng; Fan, Quanshui; Liu, Hua; Zhang, Fuqiang; Wang, Wei; Liao, Guoyang

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006, canine distemper outbreaks have occurred in rhesus monkeys at a breeding farm in Guangxi, People’s Republic of China. Approximately 10,000 animals were infected (25%–60% disease incidence); 5%–30% of infected animals died. The epidemic was controlled by vaccination. Amino acid sequence analysis of the virus indicated a unique strain. PMID:21801646

  9. Quantifying reporting timeliness to improve outbreak control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonačić Marinović, Axel; Swaan, Corien; van Steenbergen, Jim; Kretzschmar, MEE

    The extent to which reporting delays should be reduced to gain substantial improvement in outbreak control is unclear. We developed a model to quantitatively assess reporting timeliness. Using reporting speed data for 6 infectious diseases in the notification system in the Netherlands, we calculated

  10. Outbreak of Mysterious Illness Among Hospital Staff

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Peter; Ebbehøj, Niels Erik

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Hospitals are rarely reported as settings for mass psychogenic illness (MPI). The present report scrutinizes an outbreak of probable MPI among hospital staff, with medical intervention reinforcing the course of the illness. CASE REPORT: Four of seven staff members in an emergency...

  11. Lessons in Outbreak a Consumer perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, A.R.H.

    2008-01-01

    Lessons in Outbreak a Consumer perspective. Arnout Fischer Consumer risk perceptions is not necessarily the same as an economic weighing of risks and benefits. Consumers tend to be risk averse, tend to estimate catastrophic, unnatural or involuntary risks as larger, while personal lifestyle risks

  12. Characterization of synoptic patterns causing dust outbreaks that affect the Arabian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermida, L.; Merino, A.; Sánchez, J. L.; Fernández-González, S.; García-Ortega, E.; López, L.

    2018-01-01

    Dust storms pose serious weather hazards in arid and semiarid regions of the earth. Understanding the main synoptic conditions that give rise to dust outbreaks is important for issuing forecasts and warnings to the public in cases of severe storms. The aim of the present study is to determine synoptic patterns that are associated with or even favor dust outbreaks over the Arabian Peninsula. In this respect, red-green-blue dust composite images from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are used to detect dust outbreaks affecting the Arabian Peninsula, with possible influences in southwestern Asia and northeastern Africa, between 2005 and 2013. The Meteosat imagery yielded a sample of 95 dust storm days. Meteorological fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of wind fields at 10 m and 250 hPa, mean sea level pressure, and geopotential heights at 850 and 500 hPa were obtained for the dust storm days. Using principal component analysis in T-mode and non-hierarchical k-means clustering, we obtained four major atmospheric circulation patterns associated with dust outbreaks during the study days. Cluster 4 had the largest number of days with dust events, which were constrained to summer, and cluster 3 had the fewest. In clusters 1, 2 and 3, the jet stream favored the entry of a low-pressure area or trough that varied in location between the three clusters. Their most northerly location was found in cluster 4, along with an extensive low-pressure area supporting strong winds over the Arabian Peninsula. The spatial distribution of aerosol optical depth for each cluster obtained was characterized using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data. Then, using METAR stations, clusters were also characterized in terms of frequency and visibility.

  13. Measles outbreak linked to European B3 outbreaks, Wales, United Kingdom, 2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Jonny; Davies, Llion; McCarthy, Joanne; Perry, Malorie; Moore, Catherine; Cottrell, Simon; Bowley, Mererid; Williams, Chris; Shankar, Ananda Giri; Stiff, Rhianwen

    2017-10-01

    The United Kingdom achieved interrupted endemic measles transmission for 36 months in 2016. Despite this, ongoing challenges from sporadic measles cases typically imported from abroad remain. We summarise a B3 measles genotype outbreak in south-east Wales occurring between May and September 2017, linked with other European outbreaks, and lessons learnt. Seventeen confirmed cases and one probable case occurred principally in education and healthcare-settings. Six confirmed cases attended healthcare settings when infectious, without being isolated.

  14. Management of Animal Botulism Outbreaks: From Clinical Suspicion to Practical Countermeasures to Prevent or Minimize Outbreaks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anniballi, Fabrizio; Fiore, Alfonsina; Löfström, Charlotta

    2013-01-01

    and economic concern because of its high mortality rate. Moreover, meat or other products from affected animals entering the food chain may result in a public health problem. To this end, early diagnosis is crucial to define and apply appropriate veterinary public health measures. Clinical diagnosis is based...... outbreaks. In this article we outline all phases of management of animal botulism outbreaks occurring in wet wild birds, poultry, cattle, horses, and fur farm animals....

  15. outbreak of hepatitis 'E' in risalpur garrison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif, T.B.; Tariq, W.U.Z.

    2007-01-01

    Hepatitis E virus is an RNA virus. It results in epidemics/outbreaks in geographical areas lacking clean water and sanitation. It is excreted in stools and is enterically transmitted (faeco-oral route). The clinical picture resembles other acute hepatitis and diagnosis is clinched by detecting anti-HEV IgM in infected individuals. It is a self-limiting disease and does not progress to chronicity. There is no vaccine available so far, to confer immunity against HEV infection. HEV is endemic in many parts of the world and has resulted in many epidemics / outbreaks worldwide. It is also endemic in Pakistan and epidemics / outbreaks have generally been under reported. To establish the cause of outbreak Blood samples of the patients (n=195), admitted in isolation ward were collected aseptically for routine baseline investigations and hepatitis screening. Separate blood samples were sent to Armed Forces Institute of pathology (AFIP), Rawalpindi for detection of antibodies to hepatitis E virus (Anti HEV IgM). Water samples collected during the outbreak were tested by multiple tube technique. MPN (Most Probable Number) method was used to determine faecal coliform bacteria per 100 ml of water sample. All the patients (n=195) on admission had raised ALT (Alanine Aminotransferase) levels along with hyperbilirubinemia, 37% had raised TLC with polymorphonuclear response. None had HBsAg (Hepatitis B surface antign) or anti-HCV (antibodies to hepatitis C virus), 23% had prolonged PT (Prothrombin Time). Samples despatched to AFIP Rawalpindi confirmed the presence of anti-HEV IgM. Follow up analysis revealed many fold increase in ALT levels. Average stay in the Hospital was 23.6 days per patient. All the water samples were declared unfit for drinking due to high coliform count. At present, no vaccine is available to protect against HEV infection. Mainstay for prevention and occurrence is to formulate cost-effective strategies for improvement of self/environmental hygiene and

  16. Human angiostrongyliasis outbreak in Dali, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shan Lv

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several angiostrongyliasis outbreaks have been reported in recent years but the disease continues to be neglected in public health circles. We describe an outbreak in Dali, southwest China in order to highlight some key problems for the control of this helminth infection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: All available medical records of suspected angiostrongyliasis patients visiting hospitals in Dali in the period 1 October 2007-31 March 2008 were reviewed, and tentative diagnoses of varying strengths were reached according to given sets of criteria. Snails collected from local markets, restaurants and natural habitats were also screened for the presence of Angiostrongylus cantonensis. A total of 33 patients met criteria for infection, and 11 among them were classified as clinically confirmed. An additional eight patients were identified through a surveillance system put in operation in response to the outbreak. The epidemic lasted for 8 months with its peak in February 2008. Of the 33 patients, 97.0% complained of severe headache. 84.8% patients had high eosinophil cell counts either in the peripheral blood or in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF. Three-quarters of the patients were treated with a combination of albendazole and corticosteroids, resulting in significantly improved overall conditions. Twenty-two patients reported the consumption of raw or undercooked snails prior to the onset of the symptoms, and approximately 1.0% of the Pomacea canaliculata snails on sale were found to be infected with A. cantonensis. The snails were also found in certain habitats around Dali but no parasites were detected in these populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The import and sale of infected P. canaliculata is the likely trigger for this angiostrongyliasis outbreak. Awareness of angiostrongyliasis must be raised, and standardized diagnosis and treatment are needed in order to provide clinicians with a guide to address this disease. Health education

  17. Cholera Outbreaks in Urban Bangladesh In 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, Farhana; Hossain, M Jahangir; Kundu, Subodh Kumar; Naser, Abu Mohd; Rahman, Mahmudur; Luby, Stephen P

    In 2011, a multidisciplinary team investigated two diarrhoea outbreaks affecting urban Bangladeshi communities from the districts of Bogra and Kishorganj to identify etiology, pathways of transmission, and factors contributing to these outbreaks. We defined case-patients with severe diarrhoea as residents from affected communities admitted with ≥3 loose stools per day. We listed case-patients, interviewed and examined them, and collected rectal swabs. We visited the affected communities to explore the water and sanitation infrastructure. We tested the microbial load of water samples from selected case household taps, tube wells, and pump stations. We conducted anthropological investigations to understand community perceptions regarding the outbreaks. We identified 21 case-patients from Bogra and 84 from Kishorganj. The median age in Bogra was 23 years, and 21 years in Kishorganj. There were no reported deaths. We isolated Vibrio in 29% (5/17) of rectal swabs from Bogra and in 40% (8/20) from Kishorganj. We found Vibrio in 1/8 tap water samples from Bogra and in both of the samples from Kishorganj. We did not find Vibrio in water samples from pumps or tube wells in either outbreak. Ground water extracted through deep tube wells was supplied intermittently through interconnected pipes without treatment in both areas. We found leakages in the water pipes in Bogra, and in Kishorganj water pipes passed through open sewers. The rapid onset of severe diarrhoea predominantly affecting adults and the isolation of cholera in rectal swabs confirmed that these outbreaks were caused by Vibrio cholerae . The detection of Vibrio in water samples organisms from taps but not from pumps or tube wells, suggested contamination within the pipes. Safe water provision is difficult in municipalities where supply is intermittent, and where pipes commonly leak. Research to develop and evaluate water purification strategies could identify appropriate approaches for ensuring safe drinking

  18. Human angiostrongyliasis outbreak in Dali, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Shan; Zhang, Yi; Chen, Shao-Rong; Wang, Li-Bo; Fang, Wen; Chen, Feng; Jiang, Jin-Yong; Li, Yuan-Lin; Du, Zun-Wei; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2009-09-22

    Several angiostrongyliasis outbreaks have been reported in recent years but the disease continues to be neglected in public health circles. We describe an outbreak in Dali, southwest China in order to highlight some key problems for the control of this helminth infection. All available medical records of suspected angiostrongyliasis patients visiting hospitals in Dali in the period 1 October 2007-31 March 2008 were reviewed, and tentative diagnoses of varying strengths were reached according to given sets of criteria. Snails collected from local markets, restaurants and natural habitats were also screened for the presence of Angiostrongylus cantonensis. A total of 33 patients met criteria for infection, and 11 among them were classified as clinically confirmed. An additional eight patients were identified through a surveillance system put in operation in response to the outbreak. The epidemic lasted for 8 months with its peak in February 2008. Of the 33 patients, 97.0% complained of severe headache. 84.8% patients had high eosinophil cell counts either in the peripheral blood or in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Three-quarters of the patients were treated with a combination of albendazole and corticosteroids, resulting in significantly improved overall conditions. Twenty-two patients reported the consumption of raw or undercooked snails prior to the onset of the symptoms, and approximately 1.0% of the Pomacea canaliculata snails on sale were found to be infected with A. cantonensis. The snails were also found in certain habitats around Dali but no parasites were detected in these populations. The import and sale of infected P. canaliculata is the likely trigger for this angiostrongyliasis outbreak. Awareness of angiostrongyliasis must be raised, and standardized diagnosis and treatment are needed in order to provide clinicians with a guide to address this disease. Health education campaigns could limit the risk, and a hospital-based surveillance system should be

  19. Yellow Fever outbreak in Darfur, Sudan in October 2012; the initial outbreak investigation report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed A. Soghaier

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Introduction: Sudan is subject to repeated outbreaks, including Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (VHF, which is considered to be a very serious illness. Yellow Fever (YF outbreaks in Sudan have been reported from the 1940s through 2005. In 2012, a new outbreak of YF occurred in the Darfur region. Objective: To identify the potential for an outbreak, to diagnose the disease and to be able to recognize its cause among the initial reported cases. Methodology: >This is a descriptive and investigative field study that applies standard communicable disease outbreak investigation steps. The study involved clinical, serological, entomological and environmental surveys. Results: The field investigation confirmed the outbreak and identified its cause to be YF. Conclusion: National surveillance systems should be strong enough to detect VHFs in a timely manner. Local health facilities should be prepared to promptly treat the initial cases because the case fatality ratios (CFRs are usually very high among the index cases. Keywords: Yellow Fever, Sudan, Darfur, VHFs, Soghaier

  20. Yellow Fever outbreak in Darfur, Sudan in October 2012; the initial outbreak investigation report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soghaier, Mohammed A; Hagar, Ahmed; Abbas, Mohammed A; Elmangory, Mutasim M; Eltahir, Khalid M; Sall, Amadou A

    2013-10-01

    Sudan is subject to repeated outbreaks, including Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (VHF), which is considered to be a very serious illness. Yellow Fever (YF) outbreaks in Sudan have been reported from the 1940s through 2005. In 2012, a new outbreak of YF occurred in the Darfur region. To identify the potential for an outbreak, to diagnose the disease and to be able to recognize its cause among the initial reported cases. >This is a descriptive and investigative field study that applies standard communicable disease outbreak investigation steps. The study involved clinical, serological, entomological and environmental surveys. The field investigation confirmed the outbreak and identified its cause to be YF. National surveillance systems should be strong enough to detect VHFs in a timely manner. Local health facilities should be prepared to promptly treat the initial cases because the case fatality ratios (CFRs) are usually very high among the index cases. Copyright © 2013 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Federal Aviation Administration weather program to improve aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedan, R. W.

    1983-01-01

    The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

  2. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  3. Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Jakowski

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems. SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

  4. Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Jakowski

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems.

    SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

  5. Graphical tools for TV weather presentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najman, M.

    2010-09-01

    Contemporary meteorology and its media presentation faces in my opinion following key tasks: - Delivering the meteorological information to the end user/spectator in understandable and modern fashion, which follows industry standard of video output (HD, 16:9) - Besides weather icons show also the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, climatological data, satellite and radar images, observed weather as actual as possible. - Does not compromise the accuracy of presented data. - Ability to prepare and adjust the weather show according to actual synoptic situtation. - Ability to refocus and completely adjust the weather show to actual extreme weather events. - Ground map resolution weather data presentation need to be at least 20 m/pixel to be able to follow the numerical weather prediction model resolution. - Ability to switch between different numerical weather prediction models each day, each show or even in the middle of one weather show. - The graphical weather software need to be flexible and fast. The graphical changes nee to be implementable and airable within minutes before the show or even live. These tasks are so demanding and the usual original approach of custom graphics could not deal with it. It was not able to change the show every day, the shows were static and identical day after day. To change the content of the weather show daily was costly and most of the time impossible with the usual approach. The development in this area is fast though and there are several different options for weather predicting organisations such as national meteorological offices and private meteorological companies to solve this problem. What are the ways to solve it? What are the limitations and advantages of contemporary graphical tools for meteorologists? All these questions will be answered.

  6. Faster Detection of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks to Support Polio Eradication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Isobel M; Chenoweth, Paul; Okayasu, Hiro; Donnelly, Christl A; Aylward, R Bruce; Grassly, Nicholas C

    2016-03-01

    As the global eradication of poliomyelitis approaches the final stages, prompt detection of new outbreaks is critical to enable a fast and effective outbreak response. Surveillance relies on reporting of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases and laboratory confirmation through isolation of poliovirus from stool. However, delayed sample collection and testing can delay outbreak detection. We investigated whether weekly testing for clusters of AFP by location and time, using the Kulldorff scan statistic, could provide an early warning for outbreaks in 20 countries. A mixed-effects regression model was used to predict background rates of nonpolio AFP at the district level. In Tajikistan and Congo, testing for AFP clusters would have resulted in an outbreak warning 39 and 11 days, respectively, before official confirmation of large outbreaks. This method has relatively high specificity and could be integrated into the current polio information system to support rapid outbreak response activities.

  7. A review of critical care nursing and disease outbreak preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makamure, Miranda; Makamure, Muriel; Mendiola, Williane; Renteria, Daisy; Repp, Melissa; Willden, Azshwee

    2013-01-01

    The impact of disease outbreaks continues to increase globally. As frontline staff, critical care nurses (CCNs) are more likely to be confronted with the need to care for affected patients. With different pathological diseases emerging, CCNs play an integral role in disease outbreaks. The advanced skill set of CCNs is pivotal in the management and care of patients during an outbreak. Lack of planning and preparation before disease outbreaks leads to detrimental patient outcomes. Panic, chaos, and fear for personal safety cause stress and anxiety for unprepared nurses. However, this problem can be resolved. Comprehensive planning, training, and education can better prepare intensive care unit nurses for disease outbreaks. This article reviews some of the current literature on intensive care unit nurse preparedness for disease outbreaks in the United States. This article also offers strategies that may be used to better prepare CCNs for disease outbreaks.

  8. Modeling extreme (Carrington-type) space weather events using three-dimensional MHD code simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Glocer, A.

    2013-12-01

    There is growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure and systems. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made towards the modeling of space weather events. Three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, and have played a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for existing global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events that have a ground footprint comparable (or larger) to the Carrington superstorm. Results are presented for an initial simulation run with ``very extreme'' constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated ground induced geoelectric field to such extreme driving conditions. We also discuss the results and what they might mean for the accuracy of the simulations. The model is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in earth conductors such as power transmission grids.

  9. GHOST: global hepatitis outbreak and surveillance technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longmire, Atkinson G; Sims, Seth; Rytsareva, Inna; Campo, David S; Skums, Pavel; Dimitrova, Zoya; Ramachandran, Sumathi; Medrzycki, Magdalena; Thai, Hong; Ganova-Raeva, Lilia; Lin, Yulin; Punkova, Lili T; Sue, Amanda; Mirabito, Massimo; Wang, Silver; Tracy, Robin; Bolet, Victor; Sukalac, Thom; Lynberg, Chris; Khudyakov, Yury

    2017-12-06

    Hepatitis C is a major public health problem in the United States and worldwide. Outbreaks of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections associated with unsafe injection practices, drug diversion, and other exposures to blood are difficult to detect and investigate. Effective HCV outbreak investigation requires comprehensive surveillance and robust case investigation. We previously developed and validated a methodology for the rapid and cost-effective identification of HCV transmission clusters. Global Hepatitis Outbreak and Surveillance Technology (GHOST) is a cloud-based system enabling users, regardless of computational expertise, to analyze and visualize transmission clusters in an independent, accurate and reproducible way. We present and explore performance of several GHOST implemented algorithms using next-generation sequencing data experimentally obtained from hypervariable region 1 of genetically related and unrelated HCV strains. GHOST processes data from an entire MiSeq run in approximately 3 h. A panel of seven specimens was used for preparation of six repeats of MiSeq libraries. Testing sequence data from these libraries by GHOST showed a consistent transmission linkage detection, testifying to high reproducibility of the system. Lack of linkage among genetically unrelated HCV strains and constant detection of genetic linkage between HCV strains from known transmission pairs and from follow-up specimens at different levels of MiSeq-read sampling indicate high specificity and sensitivity of GHOST in accurate detection of HCV transmission. GHOST enables automatic extraction of timely and relevant public health information suitable for guiding effective intervention measures. It is designed as a virtual diagnostic system intended for use in molecular surveillance and outbreak investigations rather than in research. The system produces accurate and reproducible information on HCV transmission clusters for all users, irrespective of their level of bioinformatics

  10. Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.

    2017-12-01

    The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) details the activities, outcomes, and timelines to build a "Space Weather Ready Nation." NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and Abt Associates are working together on two SWAP initiatives: (1) identifying, describing, and quantifying the socio-economic impacts of moderate and severe space weather; and (2) outreach to engineers and operators to better understand user requirements for space weather products and services. Both studies cover four technological sectors (electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and GNSS users) and rely heavily on industry input. Findings from both studies are essential for decreasing vulnerabilities and enhancing preparedness.

  11. Space weather and space anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A large database of anomalies, registered by 220 satellites in different orbits over the period 1971-1994 has been compiled. For the first time, data from 49 Russian Kosmos satellites have been included in a statistical analysis. The database also contains a large set of daily and hourly space weather parameters. A series of statistical analyses made it possible to quantify, for different satellite orbits, space weather conditions on the days characterized by anomaly occurrences. In particular, very intense fluxes (>1000 pfu at energy >10 MeV of solar protons are linked to anomalies registered by satellites in high-altitude (>15000 km, near-polar (inclination >55° orbits typical for navigation satellites, such as those used in the GPS network, NAVSTAR, etc. (the rate of anomalies increases by a factor ~20, and to a much smaller extent to anomalies in geostationary orbits, (they increase by a factor ~4. Direct and indirect connections between anomaly occurrence and geomagnetic perturbations are also discussed.

  12. Vulnerability and adaptation to severe weather events in the American southwest

    OpenAIRE

    Boero, Riccardo; Bianchini, Laura; Pasqualini, Donatella

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can induce changes in the frequency of severe weather events representing a threat to socio-economic development. It is thus of uttermost importance to understand how the vulnerability to the weather of local communities is determined and how adaptation public policies can be effectively put in place. We focused our empirical analysis on the American Southwest. Results show that, consistently with the predictions of an investment model, economic characteristics signaling loc...

  13. Modeling the evolution of natural cliffs subject to weathering. 1, Limit analysis approach

    OpenAIRE

    Utili, Stefano; Crosta, Giovanni B.

    2011-01-01

    Retrogressive landsliding evolution of natural slopes subjected to weathering has been modeled by assuming Mohr-Coulomb material behavior and by using an analytical method. The case of weathering-limited slope conditions, with complete erosion of the accumulated debris, has been modeled. The limit analysis upper-bound method is used to study slope instability induced by a homogeneous decrease of material strength in space and time. The only assumption required in the model concerns the degree...

  14. New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stough, H. Paul, III; Watson, James F., Jr.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Jarrell, Michael A.; Bogue, Rodney K.

    2005-01-01

    Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

  15. Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

  16. Nosocomial outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Pernille; Lundgren, Jens Dilling; Kjaeldgaard, P

    1991-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To describe a nosocomial outbreak of cryptosporidiosis during four months after June 1989. SETTING--A department of infectious diseases in Copenhagen, seeing about half the patients with AIDS in Denmark. SUBJECTS--73 HIV antibody negative subjects and 60 antibody positive subjects...... admitted as inpatients during the transmission period of the outbreak (20 June-14 August), of whom 18 (17 with AIDS, one with AIDS related complex), developed cryptosporidiosis. Two further HIV negative subjects (one departmental secretary, one visiting relative) developed cryptosporidiosis. MAIN OUTCOME...... out ice for cold drinks. The mean incubation time was at least 13 days-that is, twice that in HIV-negative patients. Of the 18 patients with AIDS who developed cryptosporidiosis, five recovered, two were symptomless carriers, three died of unrelated causes, and eight died after prolonged diarrhoea...

  17. Severe Dengue Fever Outbreak in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Sheng-Fan; Wang, Wen-Hung; Chang, Ko; Chen, Yen-Hsu; Tseng, Sung-Pin; Yen, Chia-Hung; Wu, Deng-Chyang; Chen, Yi-Ming Arthur

    2016-01-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a vector-borne disease caused by dengue viruses (DENVs). Epidemic dengue occurs intermittently in Taiwan. In 2014, Taiwan experienced its largest DF outbreak. There were 15,732 DF cases reported. There were a total of 136 dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, of which 20 resulted in death. Most DF cases were reported in southern Taiwan. A total of 15,043 (96%) cases were from Kaohsiung, a modern city in southern Taiwan. This report reviews DF epidemics in Taiwan during 2005-2014. The correlation between DF and DHF along with temperature and precipitation were conjointly examined. We conclude that most dengue epidemics in Taiwan resulted from imported DF cases. Results indicate three main factors that may have been associated with this DF outbreak in Kaohsiung: an underground pipeline explosion combined with subsequent rainfall and higher temperature. These factors may have enhanced mosquito breeding activity, facilitating DENV transmission. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  18. A Short Overview of Ebola Outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masumeh Saeidi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available   Ebola virus disease (formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever is a severe, often fatal illness, with a death rate of up to 90%. The illness affects humans and nonhuman primates (monkeys, gorillas, and chimpanzees. Ebola first appeared in 1976 in two simultaneous outbreaks, one in a village near the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the other in a remote area of Sudan. The origin of the virus is unknown but fruit bats (Pteropodidae are considered the likely host of the Ebola virus, based on available evidence. In the current outbreak in West Africa, the majority of cases in humans have occurred as a result of human-to-human transmission. Infection occurs from direct contact through broken skin or mucous membranes with the blood, or other bodily fluids or secretions (stool, urine, saliva, semen of infected people.

  19. Discovering network behind infectious disease outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeno, Yoshiharu

    2010-11-01

    Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network and reveal the transmission parameters which govern the stochastic spreads over the network from a dataset on an infectious disease outbreak in the early growth phase. Populations in a combination of epidemiological compartment models and a meta-population network model are described by stochastic differential equations. Probability density functions are derived from the equations and used for the maximal likelihood estimation of the topology and parameters. The method is tested with computationally synthesized datasets and the WHO dataset on the SARS outbreak.

  20. Diagnostic Evasion of Highly-Resistant Microorganisms: A Critical Factor in Nosocomial Outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xuewei; Friedrich, Alexander W; Bathoorn, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Highly resistant microorganisms (HRMOs) may evade screening strategies used in routine diagnostics. Bacteria that have evolved to evade diagnostic tests may have a selective advantage in the nosocomial environment. Evasion of resistance detection can result from the following mechanisms: low-level expression of resistance genes not resulting in detectable resistance, slow growing variants, mimicry of wild-type-resistance, and resistance mechanisms that are only detected if induced by antibiotic pressure. We reviewed reports on hospital outbreaks in the Netherlands over the past 5 years. Remarkably, many outbreaks including major nation-wide outbreaks were caused by microorganisms able to evade resistance detection by diagnostic screening tests. We describe various examples of diagnostic evasion by several HRMOs and discuss this in a broad and international perspective. The epidemiology of hospital-associated bacteria may strongly be affected by diagnostic screening strategies. This may result in an increasing reservoir of resistance genes in hospital populations that is unnoticed. The resistance elements may horizontally transfer to hosts with systems for high-level expression, resulting in a clinically significant resistance problem. We advise to communicate the identification of HRMOs that evade diagnostics within national and regional networks. Such signaling networks may prevent inter-hospital outbreaks, and allow collaborative development of adapted diagnostic tests.

  1. Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Watari

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

  2. Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

  3. Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial enhanced weathering

    OpenAIRE

    Moosdorf, Nils; Renforth, Philip; Hartmann, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Terrestrial enhanced weathering, the spreading of ultramafic silicate rock flour to enhance natural weathering rates, has been suggested as part of a strategy to reduce global atmospheric CO2 levels. We budget potential CO2 sequestration against associated CO2 emissions to assess the net CO2 removal of terrestrial enhanced weathering. We combine global spatial data sets of potential source rocks, transport networks, and application areas with associated CO2 emissions in optimistic and pessimi...

  4. [Effect of weather on odontogenic abscesses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, G; Schmidseder, R

    1978-11-01

    An increased frequency of odontogenous abcesses was observed on certain days in the course of routine clinical practice. We therefore investigated the possibility of a statistically significant weather-related odontogenous soft-tissue purulence originating from chronic apical periodontitis. Medical reports of patients treated between 1970 and 1977 were used. Our study indicated that the frequency of odontogenous abcesses was significantly higher with cyclonic weather conditions, i.e., weather with low barometric pressure.

  5. Models of Weather Impact on Air Traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao

    2017-01-01

    Flight delays have been a serious problem in the national airspace system costing about $30B per year. About 70 of the delays are attributed to weather and upto two thirds of these are avoidable. Better decision support tools would reduce these delays and improve air traffic management tools. Such tools would benefit from models of weather impacts on the airspace operations. This presentation discusses use of machine learning methods to mine various types of weather and traffic data to develop such models.

  6. Availability of high quality weather data measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Elsa; Johansen, Jakob Berg; Furbo, Simon

    In the period 2016-2017 the project “Availability of high quality weather data measurements” is carried out at Department of Civil Engineering at the Technical University of Denmark. The aim of the project is to establish measured high quality weather data which will be easily available...... for the building energy branch and the solar energy branch in their efforts to achieve energy savings and for researchers and students carrying out projects where measured high quality weather data are needed....

  7. Nosocomial outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa endophthalmitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos, I; Valencia, R; Torres, M J; Cantos, A; Conde, M; Aznar, J

    2006-11-01

    We describe an outbreak of nosocomial endophthalmitis due to a common source, which was determined to be trypan blue solution prepared in the hospital's pharmacy service. We assume that viable bacteria probably gained access to the trypan blue stock solution during cooling after autoclaving. The temporal cluster of Pseudomonas aeruginosa endophthalmitis was readily perceived on the basis of clinical and microbiological findings, and an exogenous source of contamination was unequivocally identified by means of DNA fingerprinting.

  8. Factors determining dengue outbreak in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Rohani; Suzilah, Ismail; Wan Najdah, Wan Mohamad Ali; Topek, Omar; Mustafakamal, Ibrahim; Lee, Han Lim

    2018-01-01

    A large scale study was conducted to elucidate the true relationship among entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors that contributed to dengue outbreak in Malaysia. Two large areas (Selayang and Bandar Baru Bangi) were selected in this study based on five consecutive years of high dengue cases. Entomological data were collected using ovitraps where the number of larvae was used to reflect Aedes mosquito population size; followed by RT-PCR screening to detect and serotype dengue virus in mosquitoes. Notified cases, date of disease onset, and number and type of the interventions were used as epidemiological endpoint, while rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and air pollution index (API) were indicators for environmental data. The field study was conducted during 81 weeks of data collection. Correlation and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model were used to determine the relationship. The study showed that, notified cases were indirectly related with the environmental data, but shifted one week, i.e. last 3 weeks positive PCR; last 4 weeks rainfall; last 3 weeks maximum relative humidity; last 3 weeks minimum and maximum temperature; and last 4 weeks air pollution index (API), respectively. Notified cases were also related with next week intervention, while conventional intervention only happened 4 weeks after larvae were found, indicating ample time for dengue transmission. Based on a significant relationship among the three factors (epidemiological, entomological and environmental), estimated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model for both locations produced high accuracy 84.9% for Selayang and 84.1% for Bandar Baru Bangi in predicting the actual notified cases. Hence, such model can be used in forestalling dengue outbreak and acts as an early warning system. The existence of relationships among the entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors can be used to build an early warning system for the prediction of dengue outbreak so

  9. Optimizing Placement of Weather Stations: Exploring Objective Functions of Meaningful Combinations of Multiple Weather Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, A.; Dietterich, T.; Selker, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Many regions of the world lack ground-based weather data due to inadequate or unreliable weather station networks. For example, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have unreliable, sparse networks of weather stations. The absence of these data can have consequences on weather forecasting, prediction of severe weather events, agricultural planning, and climate change monitoring. The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO.org) project seeks to address these problems by deploying and operating a large network of weather stations throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. To design the TAHMO network, we must determine where to place weather stations within each country. We should consider how we can create accurate spatio-temporal maps of weather data and how to balance the desired accuracy of each weather variable of interest (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, etc.). We can express this problem as a joint optimization of multiple weather variables, given a fixed number of weather stations. We use reanalysis data as the best representation of the "true" weather patterns that occur in the region of interest. For each possible combination of sites, we interpolate the reanalysis data between selected locations and calculate the mean average error between the reanalysis ("true") data and the interpolated data. In order to formulate our multi-variate optimization problem, we explore different methods of weighting each weather variable in our objective function. These methods include systematic variation of weights to determine which weather variables have the strongest influence on the network design, as well as combinations targeted for specific purposes. For example, we can use computed evapotranspiration as a metric that combines many weather variables in a way that is meaningful for agricultural and hydrological applications. We compare the errors of the weather station networks produced by each optimization problem formulation. We also compare these

  10. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  11. Outbreak of Enterovirus - 71 Meningitis in Calicut

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CK Sasidharan

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Enterovirus 71(EV 71 causes wide spectrum of infections ranging from asymptomatic conditions to clinical syndromes like diarrhea, rash, hand-foot-and mouth disease (HFMD, herpangina, aseptic meningitis, encephalitis, myocarditis, acute flaccid paralysis, bulbar and brainstem encephalitis Guillain Barre syndrome, pulmonary haemorrhage. This study deals with an outbreak of aseptic meningitis in children caused by EV 71 virus. Methods: The authors report an outbreak of aseptic meningitis in children in and around Calicut in June 2008. Clinical and laboratory study was done in collaboration with National Centre for Disease Control, New Delhi. 149 children with aseptic meningitis were studied and followed up from June 2008 to May 2009. Result: All children had clinical features suggestive of aseptic meningitis and serology showed the rising antibody titre against EV 71 virus infection. CSF analysis also showed four fold rise in antibodies in one and ≥ 1:2 neutralising antibodies titer against EV- 71 in four samples indicating meningitis due to EV-71. Conclusion: EV 71 was identified as the causative agent of the outbreak of aseptic meningitis in the study and the fact that the EV 71 infection has evolved from minor illness like HFMD to major illness like aseptic meningitis from the same locality is truly alarming.

  12. Avalanche outbreaks emerging in cooperative contagions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Weiran; Chen, Li; Ghanbarnejad, Fakhteh; Grassberger, Peter

    2015-11-01

    The spreading of contagions can exhibit a percolation transition, which separates transitory prevalence from outbreaks that reach a finite fraction of the population. Such transitions are commonly believed to be continuous, but empirical studies have shown more violent spreading modes when the participating agents are not limited to one type. Striking examples include the co-epidemic of the Spanish flu and pneumonia that occurred in 1918 (refs , ), and, more recently, the concurrent prevalence of HIV/AIDS and a host of diseases. It remains unclear to what extent an outbreak in the presence of interacting pathogens differs from that due to an ordinary single-agent process. Here we study a mechanistic model for understanding contagion processes involving inter-agent cooperation. Our stochastic simulations reveal the possible emergence of a massive avalanche-like outbreak right at the threshold, which is manifested as a discontinuous phase transition. Such an abrupt change arises only if the underlying network topology supports a bottleneck for cascaded mutual infections. Surprisingly, all these discontinuous transitions are accompanied by non-trivial critical behaviours, presenting a rare case of hybrid transition. The findings may imply the origin of catastrophic occurrences in many realistic systems, from co-epidemics to financial contagions.

  13. Sverdlovsk Anthrax Outbreak: An Educational Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, S. J.; van der Vink, G.

    2002-05-01

    In April and May of 1979 an Anthrax epidemic broke out in the city of Sverdlovsk (now Ekaterinburg) in the former Soviet Union. Sixty-four people were reported to have died from the outbreak, although there is still debate concerning the actual number of victims. While Soviet officials initially attributed this outbreak to contaminated meat, the US Government maintained that the outbreak was due to a leakage from a biological weapons facility. We have created and implemented an undergraduate educational exercise based on the forensic analysis of this event. Students were provided case data of the victims, area satellite images and meteorological data. One goal of the exercise was for students to reconstruct the most probable scenario of events through valid inference based on the limited information and uncertainties associated with the data set. Another goal was to make students sensitive to issues of biological weapons and bioterrorism. The exercise was highly rated by students even before the events of September 11. There is a clear need to educate students, particularly in the sciences, to be aware of the signatures of terrorist activities. Evidence of terrorist activities is more likely to appear from unintended discoveries than from active intelligence gathering. We believe our national security can be enhanced by sensitizing those that monitor the natural environment to the signatures of terrorist activities through the types of educational exercises that we have developed.

  14. Modeling wind fields and fire propagation following bark beetle outbreaks in spatially-heterogeneous pinyon-juniper woodland fuel complexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodman R. Linn; Carolyn H. Sieg; Chad M. Hoffman; Judith L. Winterkamp; Joel D. McMillin

    2013-01-01

    We used a physics-based model, HIGRAD/FIRETEC, to explore changes in within-stand wind behavior and fire propagation associated with three time periods in pinyon-juniper woodlands following a drought-induced bark beetle outbreak and subsequent tree mortality. Pinyon-juniper woodland fuel complexes are highly heterogeneous. Trees often are clumped, with sparse patches...

  15. Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  16. The Spirit of North Dakota: Alive in Weatherization; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    North Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  17. A Tribute to Weatherization Solutions in South Dakota: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    South Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  18. Weatherization Savings Takes Root in New Mexico: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    New Mexico demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  19. Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  20. Weatherization in Arkansas: A Gem of a Program: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Arkansas demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  1. New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  2. Weatherization is a Hit in Michigan: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Michigan demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  3. Weatherization Builds on Delaware's Innovative Past: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Delaware demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  4. Taking Weatherization to New Heights in Colorado: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Colorado demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  5. Weatherization: Wyoming's Hidden Resource; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Wyoming demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  6. Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D& R International

    2001-10-10

    Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  7. Road weather information for travelers : improving road weather messages and dissemination methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) recently completed a study titled Human Factors Analysis of Road Weather Advisory and Control Information (Publication No. FHWAJPO- 10-053). The goal of the study was to...

  8. Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D& R International

    2001-10-10

    Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  9. Weatherization Sails on Maryland's Legacy of Innovation: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Maryland demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  10. New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D& R International

    2001-10-10

    New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  11. Weatherization Plays a Starring Role in Mississippi: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D& R International

    2001-10-10

    Mississippi demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  12. Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natuzzi, Eileen S.; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

    2016-01-01

    Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. PMID:27091867

  13. Mumps vaccine performance among university students during a mumps outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, Margaret M; Jordan, Hannah T; Curns, Aaron T; Quinlan, Patricia A; Ens, Kim A; Denning, Patricia M; Dayan, Gustavo H

    2008-04-15

    The largest reported mumps outbreak at a US college in 19 years occurred in 2006 at a Kansas university with a 2-dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination policy. We assessed vaccine performance and mumps risk factors, including the possibility of waning vaccine protection. Case students were compared with a cohort of the university's approximately 19,000 undergraduates. The secondary attack rate for clinical mumps was determined among roommates exposed to case students. Time from receipt of the second dose of MMR vaccine was compared between case students and roommates without mumps. Coverage with > or =2 dose of MMR vaccine was > or =95% among 140 undergraduate case students and 444 cohort students. The secondary attack rate for clinical mumps among roommates who had received 2 doses of vaccine ranged from 2.2% to 7.7%, depending on the case definition. Compared with roommates without mumps, case students were more likely (odds ratio, 2.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-4.82) to have received their second dose of MMR vaccine > or =10 years earlier. The odds of being a case student increased with each 1-year increase in time from receipt of the second dose of MMR vaccine (odds ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.68) among case students and roommates aged 18-19 years but not among those aged > or =20 years. Students aged 18-19 years had a higher risk of mumps (risk ratio, 3.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-6.16), compared with students aged > or =22 years; women living in dormitories had increased risk of mumps (risk ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-3.76), compared with men not living in dormitories. High 2-dose MMR coverage protected many students from developing mumps but was not sufficient to prevent the mumps outbreak. Vaccine-induced protection may wane. Similar US settings where large numbers of young adults from wild-type naive cohorts live closely together may be at particular risk for mumps outbreaks.

  14. A Severe Weather Laboratory Exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate Class Using Active Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundstein, Andrew; Durkee, Joshua; Frye, John; Andersen, Theresa; Lieberman, Jordan

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a new severe weather laboratory exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate class, appropriate for first and second year college students (including nonscience majors), that incorporates inquiry-based learning techniques. In the lab, students play the role of meteorologists making forecasts for severe weather. The…

  15. Socio-epidemiological determinants of 2002 plague outbreak in Himachal Pradesh, India: a qualitative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background This qualitative investigation was conducted to determine the socio-epidemiological factors related to the plague outbreak (2002) in Himachal Pradesh (HP), India. Methods The data for socio-epidemiological factors related to the plague outbreak (2002) in HP was obtained from residents through 150 in-depth Interviews (IDI) and 30 Focus Group Discussions (FGD) during six visits (from May 2011 to April 2012) by the research team. Natives, health officials and the nomadic population were interviewed. According to their opinion and viewpoints data was collected and their lifestyle and hunting practices were studied in detail. Tape recorders were used during various FGDs and IDIs. The interviews and FGDs were later transcribed and coded. In-depth analysis of the recorded data was done using an inductive thematic analysis approach. Results The study reports that the outbreak in 2002 in a few villages of Himachal Pradesh was that of plague and it occurred by the contact of an index case with wild animals after hunting and de-skinning. The first wave of plague transmission which took 16 lives of residents was followed by a second wave of transmission in a ward of a tertiary care hospital where one visitor acquired it from relatives of the index case and succumbed. The life-style practices of residents (hunting behavior, long stay in caves and jungles, overcrowding in houses, poor hygiene and sanitation, belief in ‘God’ and faith healers for cure of diseases) was optimal for the occurrence and rapid spread of such a communicable disease. The man-rodent contact is intensified due to the practice of hunting in such a rodent-ridden environment. The residents harbor a strong belief that plague occurs due to the wrath of gods. Various un-reported outbreaks of plague were also observed by officials, residents and old folk. The persistence of plague in HP is favoured by its hilly terrain, inaccessible areas, inclement weather (snow) in winters, unhygienic lifestyle

  16. Impact of the 4 April 2014 Saharan dust outbreak on the photovoltaic power generation in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Rieger

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The importance for reliable forecasts of incoming solar radiation is growing rapidly, especially for those countries with an increasing share in photovoltaic (PV power production. The reliability of solar radiation forecasts depends mainly on the representation of clouds and aerosol particles absorbing and scattering radiation. Especially under extreme aerosol conditions, numerical weather prediction has a systematic bias in the solar radiation forecast. This is caused by the design of numerical weather prediction models, which typically account for the direct impact of aerosol particles on radiation using climatological mean values and the impact on cloud formation assuming spatially and temporally homogeneous aerosol concentrations. These model deficiencies in turn can lead to significant economic losses under extreme aerosol conditions. For Germany, Saharan dust outbreaks occurring 5 to 15 times per year for several days each are prominent examples for conditions, under which numerical weather prediction struggles to forecast solar radiation adequately. We investigate the impact of mineral dust on the PV-power generation during a Saharan dust outbreak over Germany on 4 April 2014 using ICON-ART, which is the current German numerical weather prediction model extended by modules accounting for trace substances and related feedback processes. We find an overall improvement of the PV-power forecast for 65 % of the pyranometer stations in Germany. Of the nine stations with very high differences between forecast and measurement, eight stations show an improvement. Furthermore, we quantify the direct radiative effects and indirect radiative effects of mineral dust. For our study, direct effects account for 64 %, indirect effects for 20 % and synergistic interaction effects for 16 % of the differences between the forecast including mineral dust radiative effects and the forecast neglecting mineral dust.

  17. Cholera outbreak in Senegal in 2005: was climate a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Constantin de Magny

    Full Text Available Cholera is an acute diarrheal illness caused by Vibrio cholerae and occurs as widespread epidemics in Africa. In 2005, there were 31,719 cholera cases, with 458 deaths in the Republic of Senegal. We retrospectively investigated the climate origin of the devastating floods in mid-August 2005, in the Dakar Region of Senegal and the subsequent outbreak of cholera along with the pattern of cholera outbreaks in three other regions of that country. We compared rainfall patterns between 2002 and 2005 and the relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and precipitation over Senegal for 2005. Results showed a specific pattern of rainfall throughout the Dakar region during August, 2005, and the associated rainfall anomaly coincided with an exacerbation of the cholera epidemic. Comparison of rainfall and epidemiological patterns revealed that the temporal dynamics of precipitation, which was abrupt and heavy, was presumably the determining factor. Analysis of the SST gradient showed that the Atlantic Ocean SST variability in 2005 differed from that of 2002 to 2004, a result of a prominent Atlantic meridional mode. The influence of this intense precipitation on cholera transmission over a densely populated and crowded region was detectable for both Dakar and Thiès, Senegal. Thus, high resolution rainfall forecasts at subseasonal time scales should provide a way forward for an early warning system in Africa for cholera and, thereby, trigger epidemic preparedness. Clearly, attention must be paid to both natural and human induced environmental factors to devise appropriate action to prevent cholera and other waterborne disease epidemics in the region.

  18. Modeling rock weathering in small watersheds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pacheco, F.A.L.; van der Weijden, C.H.

    2014-01-01

    Many mountainous watersheds are conceived as aquifer media where multiple groundwater flow systems have developed (Tóth, 1963), and as bimodal landscapes where differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled rock has occurred (Wahrhaftig, 1965). The results of a weathering algorithm (Pacheco and

  19. Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial enhanced weathering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosdorf, Nils; Renforth, Phil; Hartmann, Jens

    2014-05-06

    Terrestrial enhanced weathering, the spreading of ultramafic silicate rock flour to enhance natural weathering rates, has been suggested as part of a strategy to reduce global atmospheric CO2 levels. We budget potential CO2 sequestration against associated CO2 emissions to assess the net CO2 removal of terrestrial enhanced weathering. We combine global spatial data sets of potential source rocks, transport networks, and application areas with associated CO2 emissions in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The results show that the choice of source rocks and material comminution technique dominate the CO2 efficiency of enhanced weathering. CO2 emissions from transport amount to on average 0.5-3% of potentially sequestered CO2. The emissions of material mining and application are negligible. After accounting for all emissions, 0.5-1.0 t CO2 can be sequestered on average per tonne of rock, translating into a unit cost from 1.6 to 9.9 GJ per tonne CO2 sequestered by enhanced weathering. However, to control or reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations substantially with enhanced weathering would require very large amounts of rock. Before enhanced weathering could be applied on large scales, more research is needed to assess weathering rates, potential side effects, social acceptability, and mechanisms of governance.

  20. The Early Years: About the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy

    2015-01-01

    Observing and documenting elements of weather teach children about using tools and their senses to learn about the environment. This column discusses resources and science topics related to students in grades preK to 2. This month's issue describes an activity where students indirectly document local weather by counting outdoor clothing types worn…

  1. Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

    2010-01-01

    Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

  2. Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, N. J.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Merkin, V. G.; Stephens, G. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Barnes, R. J.; Anderson, B. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Kelly, M. A.; Berger, T. E.; Bonadonna, L. C. M. F.; Hesse, M.; Sharma, S.

    2015-12-01

    National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review the space weather system developed for the Van Allen Probes mission, together with other datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL. We will look at how these, and results from future missions such as Solar Probe Plus, could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

  3. Android Smartphone Relevance to Military Weather Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    lithium -ion battery that may be replaced by the user (unlike Apple iPod Touch devices), thus spare batteries can be carried. If there is only sporadic...Android Smartphone Relevance to Military Weather Applications by David Sauter ARL-TR-5793 October 2011...Android Smartphone Relevance to Military Weather Applications David Sauter Computational and Information Sciences Directorate, ARL

  4. AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.

  5. Weathered antlers as a source of DNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy G. Lopez; Paul Beier

    2012-01-01

    We tested antlers of Coues white-tailed (Odocoileus virginianus couesi) and mule deer (O. hemionus) in various stages of natural decomposition to determine the degree of weathering that cast antlers could endure and still yield usable DNA. Based on physical characteristics, we partitioned antlers into 7 weathering categories ranging from freshly cast (class 1) to...

  6. An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bech

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an observational study of the tornado outbreak that took place on the 7 September 2005 in the Llobregat delta river, affecting a densely populated and urbanised area and the Barcelona International airport (NE Spain. The site survey confirmed at least five short-lived tornadoes. Four of them were weak (F0, F1 and the other one was significant (F2 on the Fujita scale. They started mostly as waterspouts and moved later inland causing extensive damage estimated in 9 million Euros, three injured people but fortunately no fatalities. Large scale forcing was provided by upper level diffluence and low level warm air advection. Satellite and weather radar images revealed the development of the cells that spawned the waterspouts along a mesoscale convergence line in a highly sheared and relatively low buoyant environment. Further analysis indicated characteristics that could be attributed indistinctively to non-supercell or to mini-supercell thunderstorms.

  7. Prevention of child injuries during tornadoes: cases from the 2011 tornado outbreak in Alabama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Christine M; Baker, Mark D; Monroe, Kathy W

    2012-12-01

    Tornadoes and violent weather pose a hazard to children, yet little is known about the use of personal protective devices during storms. An outbreak of tornadoes on April 27, 2011, resulted in the deaths of 23 children in Alabama. Records from 60 patients seen in a pediatric emergency department for tornado-related injuries were reviewed to identify the use of injury prevention devices. Three children directly exposed to a violent tornado (Enhanced Fujita Scale 4) were using safety equipment, specifically, a helmet and infant car seats. These 3 children sustained only minor injuries. Personal protective devices may have played a role in preventing child injuries from tornadoes. To our knowledge, this is the first report in the medical literature on helmet and infant car seat use as child protective devices during tornadoes.

  8. A Methanol Intoxication Outbreak From Recreational Ingestion of Fracking Fluid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collister, David; Duff, Graham; Palatnick, Wesley; Komenda, Paul; Tangri, Navdeep; Hingwala, Jay

    2017-05-01

    Single-patient methanol intoxications are a common clinical presentation, but outbreaks are rare and usually occur in settings in which there is limited access to ethanol and methanol is consumed as a substitute. In this case report, we describe an outbreak of methanol intoxications that was challenging from a public health perspective and discuss strategies for managing such an outbreak. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Functional Characterization of Adaptive Mutations during the West African Ebola Virus Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietzel, Erik; Schudt, Gordian; Krähling, Verena; Matrosovich, Mikhail; Becker, Stephan

    2017-01-15

    The Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa started in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, threatened to destabilize a whole region, and showed how easily health crises can turn into humanitarian disasters. EBOV genomic sequences of the West African outbreak revealed nonsynonymous mutations, which induced considerable public attention, but their role in virus spread and disease remains obscure. In this study, we investigated the functional significance of three nonsynonymous mutations that emerged early during the West African EBOV outbreak. Almost 90% of more than 1,000 EBOV genomes sequenced during the outbreak carried the signature of three mutations: a D759G substitution in the active center of the L polymerase, an A82V substitution in the receptor binding domain of surface glycoprotein GP, and an R111C substitution in the self-assembly domain of RNA-encapsidating nucleoprotein NP. Using a newly developed virus-like particle system and reverse genetics, we found that the mutations have an impact on the functions of the respective viral proteins and on the growth of recombinant EBOVs. The mutation in L increased viral transcription and replication, whereas the mutation in NP decreased viral transcription and replication. The mutation in the receptor binding domain of the glycoprotein GP improved the efficiency of GP-mediated viral entry into target cells. Recombinant EBOVs with combinations of the three mutations showed a growth advantage over the prototype isolate Makona C7 lacking the mutations. This study showed that virus variants with improved fitness emerged early during the West African EBOV outbreak. The dimension of the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa was unprecedented. Amino acid substitutions in the viral L polymerase, surface glycoprotein GP, and nucleocapsid protein NP emerged, were fixed early in the outbreak, and were found in almost 90% of the sequences. Here we showed that these mutations affected the functional activity of

  10. Pushing the Envelope of Extreme Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. D.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) is one of the few that had superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing millions of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares and the accompanying coronal mass ejections could strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet. What level of solar activity would be necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of the Earth? Can we map out the envelope of space weather along the evolution of the Sun? What would space weather look like if the Sun stopped producing a magnetic field? To what extreme should Space Weather go? These are the extremes of Space Weather explored in this talk.

  11. [Waterborne diseases outbreaks in the Czech Republic, 1995-2005].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozísek, F; Jeligová, H; Dvoráková, A

    2009-08-01

    Despite considerable advances in drinking water safety assurance and adherence to the public health standards, waterborne diaseases outbreaks have still been observed even in industrialized countries. The study objective was to map such outbreaks in the Czech Republic in 1995-2005. In this study, an outbreak is the occurrence of more cases of disease than normally expected within a specific place over a given period of time and a waterborne disease is a disease where water is the vehicle or source of infection. The data on waterborne outbreaks was obtained from the EPIDAT database (national infectious diseases reporting system) information provided by epidemiologists of all regional public health authorities and the National Reference Laboratory for Legionella. In 1995 - 2005, 33 outbreaks with water indicated as the route of transmission were recorded in the Czech Republic. The leading cause was unsafe drinking water (27 outbreaks), mainly from wells (19 outbreaks); nevertheless, the most serious consequences were observed in two outbreaks caused by microbiologically contaminated hot water. Other sources of waterborne infection were mineral water springs, a swimming pool and a brook. The total of reported cases of waterborne diseases was 1655, 356 hospitalisations and ten deaths due to legionellosis were recorded. The highest number of outbreaks (7) as well as the highest number of cases (841) were reported in 1997. Comparison of two five-year periods, i.e. 1996-2000 and 2001-2005, showed a nearly one third decrease in the total of outbreaks and a half reduction in the total of cases in the latter. In view of the limited length of monitoring, it is not possible to say with certainty whether it is a random distribution or an actual trend. Almost two thirds of cases were diagnosed as acute gastroenteritis of probable infectious origin and other frequent waterborne diseases were viral hepatitis A and bacillary dysentery. When analyzing the described outbreaks, it

  12. Typing of Salmonella enterica serovar Saintpaul: an outbreak investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baggesen, Dorte Lau; Wegener, Henrik Caspar; Christensen, J.P.

    1996-01-01

    factor, antibiogram typing, plasmid profiling, ribotyping and pulsed field gel electrophoresis, in order to identify the most probable source of infection. After typing, the source of the investigated outbreak remains obscure because so far no isolates with traits of the outbreak strain have been...... explanation for the failure to find isolates with traits of the outbreak strain could be the presence of a third, but so far unidentified, source. The present investigation illustrates the necessity of using more than one epidemiological typing method for outbreak investigation. This is especially important...

  13. Typhoid outbreak investigation in Dzivaresekwa, suburb of Harare ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Typhoid outbreak investigation in Dzivaresekwa, suburb of Harare City, Zimbabwe, 2011. Monica Muti, Notion Gombe, Mufuta Tshimanga, Lucia Takundwa, Donewell Bangure, Stanley Mungofa, Prosper Chonzi ...

  14. Portable Weather Applications for General Aviation Pilots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlstrom, Ulf; Ohneiser, Oliver; Caddigan, Eamon

    2016-09-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the potential benefits and impact on pilot behavior from the use of portable weather applications. Seventy general aviation (GA) pilots participated in the study. Each pilot was randomly assigned to an experimental or a control group and flew a simulated single-engine GA aircraft, initially under visual meteorological conditions (VMC). The experimental group was equipped with a portable weather application during flight. We recorded measures for weather situation awareness (WSA), decision making, cognitive engagement, and distance from the aircraft to hazardous weather. We found positive effects from the use of the portable weather application, with an increased WSA for the experimental group, which resulted in credibly larger route deviations and credibly greater distances to hazardous weather (≥30 dBZ cells) compared with the control group. Nevertheless, both groups flew less than 20 statute miles from hazardous weather cells, thus failing to follow current weather-avoidance guidelines. We also found a credibly higher cognitive engagement (prefrontal oxygenation levels) for the experimental group, possibly reflecting increased flight planning and decision making on the part of the pilots. Overall, the study outcome supports our hypothesis that portable weather displays can be used without degrading pilot performance on safety-related flight tasks, actions, and decisions as measured within the constraints of the present study. However, it also shows that an increased WSA does not automatically translate to enhanced flight behavior. The study outcome contributes to our knowledge of the effect of portable weather applications on pilot behavior and decision making. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  15. Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.

    2017-12-01

    Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

  16. Two listeria outbreaks caused by smoked fish consumption-using whole-genome sequencing for outbreak investigations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gillesberg Lassen, S.; Ethelberg, S.; Björkman, J. T.

    2016-01-01

    low-intensity, extended time-period outbreaks and link them to food products from two different contaminated production facilities with sufficient strength for food authorities to intervene on. Cold smoked and gravad fish constitute risk products and may be responsible for more listeriosis cases than......Listeria monocytogenes may contaminate and persist in food production facilities and cause repeated, seemingly sporadic, illnesses over extended periods of time. We report on the investigation of two such concurrent outbreaks. We compared patient isolates and available isolates from foods and food...... polymorphism differences. We performed routine food consumption interviews of L. monocytogenes patients and compared outbreak cases with sporadic cases. Two outbreaks were defined, each consisting of ten outbreak cases in the period 2013-15. Seven outbreak cases and a fetus in gestational week 38 died...

  17. Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

    2017-12-01

    A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

  18. The Use of Chemoprophylaxis after Floods to Reduce the Occurrence and Impact of Leptospirosis Outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Maria Cristina; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Min, Kyung-Duk; Leonel, Deise Galan; Baca-Carrasco, David; Gompper, Matthew E; Hartskeerl, Rudy; Munoz-Zanzi, Claudia

    2017-06-03

    Record-breaking and devastating rainfall events have occurred in the past decade. Rain and floods are considered the main risk factors for leptospirosis and several outbreaks have been reported following extreme weather events. In such situations, one possible intervention to prevent leptospirosis cases in high-risk groups is the use of chemoprophylaxis. However, not enough evidence of its effect is available. The objectives of this study were to review the literature on the current practices of chemoprophylaxis for leptospirosis and to explore, using a mathematical model, how various chemoprophylaxis scenarios may affect the progression of a leptospirosis outbreak. Twenty-six peer-reviewed publications were selected (10 quantitative studies, two systematic reviews and 14 articles of other types). Oral doxycycline was the most used antibiotic for chemoprophylaxis of leptospirosis. Post-exposure prophylaxis was assessed in four studies following a natural disaster. Although evidence of the effectiveness of post-exposure prophylaxis is inconsistent, the direction of association supported a protective effect for morbidity and mortality. The theoretical model showed how the assumed benefit of chemoprophylaxis was influenced by the time and rate of administration. Future models should consider the heterogeneity of affected communities, improved estimates of the effect of chemoprophylaxis on leptospirosis infection and disease, as well as potential detrimental impacts. Additional research is critical to provide clear evidence-based recommendations for leptospirosis control during an outbreak. The results of this study suggest that chemoprophylaxis may provide some protection in reducing the number of leptospirosis cases after a high-risk exposure; however, the effective benefit may depend on a variety of factors such as the timing and coverage of prophylaxis. The information summarized can be used to support decision-making during a high-risk event.

  19. The Use of Chemoprophylaxis after Floods to Reduce the Occurrence and Impact of Leptospirosis Outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cristina Schneider

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Record-breaking and devastating rainfall events have occurred in the past decade. Rain and floods are considered the main risk factors for leptospirosis and several outbreaks have been reported following extreme weather events. In such situations, one possible intervention to prevent leptospirosis cases in high-risk groups is the use of chemoprophylaxis. However, not enough evidence of its effect is available. The objectives of this study were to review the literature on the current practices of chemoprophylaxis for leptospirosis and to explore, using a mathematical model, how various chemoprophylaxis scenarios may affect the progression of a leptospirosis outbreak. Twenty-six peer-reviewed publications were selected (10 quantitative studies, two systematic reviews and 14 articles of other types. Oral doxycycline was the most used antibiotic for chemoprophylaxis of leptospirosis. Post-exposure prophylaxis was assessed in four studies following a natural disaster. Although evidence of the effectiveness of post-exposure prophylaxis is inconsistent, the direction of association supported a protective effect for morbidity and mortality. The theoretical model showed how the assumed benefit of chemoprophylaxis was influenced by the time and rate of administration. Future models should consider the heterogeneity of affected communities, improved estimates of the effect of chemoprophylaxis on leptospirosis infection and disease, as well as potential detrimental impacts. Additional research is critical to provide clear evidence-based recommendations for leptospirosis control during an outbreak. The results of this study suggest that chemoprophylaxis may provide some protection in reducing the number of leptospirosis cases after a high-risk exposure; however, the effective benefit may depend on a variety of factors such as the timing and coverage of prophylaxis. The information summarized can be used to support decision-making during a high-risk event.

  20. Whether the weather drives patterns of endemic amphibian chytridiomycosis: a pathogen proliferation approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kris A Murray

    Full Text Available The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30 were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ~72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1 GI30, 2 frog body size and 3 rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario

  1. Whether the weather drives patterns of endemic amphibian chytridiomycosis: a pathogen proliferation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Kris A; Skerratt, Lee F; Garland, Stephen; Kriticos, Darren; McCallum, Hamish

    2013-01-01

    The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth) is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis) it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30) were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ~72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1) GI30, 2) frog body size and 3) rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex) and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling) influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario modelling and

  2. High-risk regions and outbreak modelling of tularemia in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desvars-Larrive, A; Liu, X; Hjertqvist, M; Sjöstedt, A; Johansson, A; Rydén, P

    2017-02-01

    Sweden reports large and variable numbers of human tularemia cases, but the high-risk regions are anecdotally defined and factors explaining annual variations are poorly understood. Here, high-risk regions were identified by spatial cluster analysis on disease surveillance data for 1984-2012. Negative binomial regression with five previously validated predictors (including predicted mosquito abundance and predictors based on local weather data) was used to model the annual number of tularemia cases within the high-risk regions. Seven high-risk regions were identified with annual incidences of 3·8-44 cases/100 000 inhabitants, accounting for 56·4% of the tularemia cases but only 9·3% of Sweden's population. For all high-risk regions, most cases occurred between July and September. The regression models explained the annual variation of tularemia cases within most high-risk regions and discriminated between years with and without outbreaks. In conclusion, tularemia in Sweden is concentrated in a few high-risk regions and shows high annual and seasonal variations. We present reproducible methods for identifying tularemia high-risk regions and modelling tularemia cases within these regions. The results may help health authorities to target populations at risk and lay the foundation for developing an early warning system for outbreaks.

  3. Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization – Human Capacity Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiita, Joanne

    2013-07-30

    The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal members’ homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

  4. Varicella outbreak in Sudanese refugees from Calais.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesens, O; Baud, O; Henquell, C; Lhermet Nurse, A; Beytout, J

    2016-05-01

    We describe an outbreak of varicella in 31 Sudanese refugees (all except one were male, mean age: 26 ± 1), from the Calais migrant camp and sheltered in a French transit area. The attack rate was 39%. Adults are scantly immunized against varicella zoster virus in East Africa and may be exposed to epidemics once in France. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. An outbreak of tinea gladiatorum in Lanzarote.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pique, E; Copado, R; Cabrera, A; Olivares, M; Fariña, M C; Escalonilla, P; Soriano, M L; Requena, L

    1999-01-01

    Canary Islands wrestling is a variant of the sport played exclusively in that region, and is associated with close participant contact. An outbreak of a fungal infection, so-called tinea gladiatorum, amongst such wrestlers in Lanzarote, one island in the archipelago is now described. 102 wrestlers from the eight teams on the island were examined; some of the clubs are 50 km apart; 45 wrestlers (44.1% of those examined) were noted to be affected. To our knowledge, this is the largest reported series of patients with tinea gladiatorum and the only one to demonstrate such infection in a variety of geographical locations.

  6. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  7. Developing a Time Series Predictive Model for Dengue in Zhongshan, China Based on Weather and Guangzhou Dengue Surveillance Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yingtao; Wang, Tao; Liu, Kangkang; Xia, Yao; Lu, Yi; Jing, Qinlong; Yang, Zhicong; Hu, Wenbiao; Lu, Jiahai

    2016-02-01

    Dengue is a re-emerging infectious disease of humans, rapidly growing from endemic areas to dengue-free regions due to favorable conditions. In recent decades, Guangzhou has again suffered from several big outbreaks of dengue; as have its neighboring cities. This study aims to examine the impact of dengue epidemics in Guangzhou, China, and to develop a predictive model for Zhongshan based on local weather conditions and Guangzhou dengue surveillance information. We obtained weekly dengue case data from 1st January, 2005 to 31st December, 2014 for Guangzhou and Zhongshan city from the Chinese National Disease Surveillance Reporting System. Meteorological data was collected from the Zhongshan Weather Bureau and demographic data was collected from the Zhongshan Statistical Bureau. A negative binomial regression model with a log link function was used to analyze the relationship between weekly dengue cases in Guangzhou and Zhongshan, controlling for meteorological factors. Cross-correlation functions were applied to identify the time lags of the effect of each weather factor on weekly dengue cases. Models were validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and k-fold cross-validation. Our results showed that weekly dengue cases in Zhongshan were significantly associated with dengue cases in Guangzhou after the treatment of a 5 weeks prior moving average (Relative Risk (RR) = 2.016, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.845-2.203), controlling for weather factors including minimum temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. ROC curve analysis indicated our forecasting model performed well at different prediction thresholds, with 0.969 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for a threshold of 3 cases per week, 0.957 AUC for a threshold of 2 cases per week, and 0.938 AUC for a threshold of 1 case per week. Models established during k-fold cross-validation also had considerable AUC (average 0.938-0.967). The sensitivity and specificity

  8. Developing a Time Series Predictive Model for Dengue in Zhongshan, China Based on Weather and Guangzhou Dengue Surveillance Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingtao Zhang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is a re-emerging infectious disease of humans, rapidly growing from endemic areas to dengue-free regions due to favorable conditions. In recent decades, Guangzhou has again suffered from several big outbreaks of dengue; as have its neighboring cities. This study aims to examine the impact of dengue epidemics in Guangzhou, China, and to develop a predictive model for Zhongshan based on local weather conditions and Guangzhou dengue surveillance information.We obtained weekly dengue case data from 1st January, 2005 to 31st December, 2014 for Guangzhou and Zhongshan city from the Chinese National Disease Surveillance Reporting System. Meteorological data was collected from the Zhongshan Weather Bureau and demographic data was collected from the Zhongshan Statistical Bureau. A negative binomial regression model with a log link function was used to analyze the relationship between weekly dengue cases in Guangzhou and Zhongshan, controlling for meteorological factors. Cross-correlation functions were applied to identify the time lags of the effect of each weather factor on weekly dengue cases. Models were validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves and k-fold cross-validation.Our results showed that weekly dengue cases in Zhongshan were significantly associated with dengue cases in Guangzhou after the treatment of a 5 weeks prior moving average (Relative Risk (RR = 2.016, 95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.845-2.203, controlling for weather factors including minimum temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. ROC curve analysis indicated our forecasting model performed well at different prediction thresholds, with 0.969 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC for a threshold of 3 cases per week, 0.957 AUC for a threshold of 2 cases per week, and 0.938 AUC for a threshold of 1 case per week. Models established during k-fold cross-validation also had considerable AUC (average 0.938-0.967. The sensitivity and

  9. The effects of weathering on the physical and mechanical properties of igneous and metamorphic saprolites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rocchi, Irene; Coop, M. R.; Maccarini, M.

    2017-01-01

    The present paper presents three extensive datasets of laboratory testing on weathered geomaterials, which are emblematic of soil types widely found worldwide. The overall dataset includes soils originating from igneous and metamorphic rocks, either coarse or fine grained and having either felsic...... or mafic minerals. In particular, the data are interpreted to highlight the effects that weathering has on the physical and mechanical properties of these natural geomaterials comparing them with published data with the aim to provide a general framework of interpretation that takes into account...... this geological process and links soil mechanics to engineering geology. Generally, weathering induces a reduction in the grain size, both due to physical actions (e.g. opening of grain contacts) and to the chemical decomposition of minerals resulting in the formation of clay minerals. As weathering proceeds...

  10. Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) Project: Dissemination of Weather Information for the Reduction of Aviation Weather-Related Accident Causal Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarrell, Michael; Tanger, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) is part of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project, which is part of the NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program. The goals of WINCOMM are to facilitate the exchange of tactical and strategic weather information between air and ground. This viewgraph presentation provides information on data link decision factors, architectures, validation goals. WINCOMM is capable of providing en-route communication air-to-ground, ground-to-air, and air-to-air, even on international or intercontinental flights. The presentation also includes information on the capacity, cost, and development of data links.

  11. Live Attenuated Yellow Fever 17D Vaccine: A Legacy Vaccine Still Controlling Outbreaks In Modern Day.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Natalie D; Barrett, Alan D T

    2017-03-01

    Live attenuated 17D vaccine is considered one of the safest and efficacious vaccines developed to date. This review highlights what is known and the gaps in knowledge of vaccine-induced protective immunity. Recently, the World Health Organization modifying its guidance from 10-year booster doses to one dose gives lifelong protection in most populations. Nonetheless, there are some data suggesting immunity, though protective, may wane over time in certain populations and more research is needed to address this question. Despite having an effective vaccine to control yellow fever, vaccine shortages were identified during outbreaks in 2016, eventuating the use of a fractional-dosing campaign in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Limited studies hinder identification of the underlying mechanism(s) of vaccine longevity; however, concurrent outbreaks during 2016 provide an opportunity to evaluate vaccine immunity following fractional dosing and insights into vaccine longevity in populations where there is limited information.

  12. Classification of weathered crude oils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogt, N.B.; Sjoegren, C.E.; Lichtenthaler, G.

    1987-01-01

    The NORDTEST procedure (1) for oil spill identification has been applied successfully at several occasions. The NORDTEST procedure includes analyses of sulfur (XRF), vanadium and nickel (ICP/AAS), GC, HPLC and UV-fluorescence. The NORDTEST procedure does not include GC-MS as an analytical method. As part of a joint Nordic to evaluate the NORDTEST procedure for oil identification, with participants from Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway, thirty artificially weathered crude oils from four geographical regions have been analyzed (2). The analytical methods evaluated include sulfur analysis, vanadium and nickel analysis, infrared analysis, UV-fluorescence, gas chromatography, high pressure liquid chromatography and high resolution GC-mass spectrometry. Figure 1 shows the distribution of variables analyzed in each analytical method. The 190 variables from GC-MS were split into 7 groups according to chemical considerations. These were steranes (25 var.), triterpanes (16 var.), di(+)aromatics (63 var.), sulf. aromatics (30 var.), monoaromatics (19 var.), cycloalkanes (15 var.) and n-alkanes (22) variables. The data from these chemical analyses have been evaluated for use in oil spill identification purposes

  13. Designing a better weather display

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Colin; Plumlee, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    The variables most commonly displayed on weather maps are atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, and surface temperature. But they are usually shown separately, not together on a single map. As a design exercise, we set the goal of finding out if it is possible to show all three variables (two 2D scalar fields and a 2D vector field) simultaneously such that values can be accurately read using keys for all variables, a reasonable level of detail is shown, and important meteorological features stand out clearly. Our solution involves employing three perceptual "channels", a color channel, a texture channel, and a motion channel in order to perceptually separate the variables and make them independently readable. We conducted an experiment to evaluate our new design both against a conventional solution, and against a glyph-based solution. The evaluation tested the abilities of novice subjects both to read values using a key, and to see meteorological patterns in the data. Our new scheme was superior especially in the representation of wind patterns using the motion channel, and it also performed well enough in the representation of pressure using the texture channel to suggest it as a viable design alternative.

  14. BALTRAD Advanced Weather Radar Networking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Michelson

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available BALTRAD software exchanges weather-radar data internationally, operationally, and in real-time, and it processes the data using a common toolbox of algorithms available to every node in the decentralized radar network. This approach enables each node to access and process its own and international data to meet its local needs. The software system is developed collaboratively by the BALTRAD partnership, mostly comprising the national Meteorological and Hydrological institutes in the European Union’s Baltic Sea Region. The most important sub-systems are for data exchange, data management, scheduling and event handling, and data processing. C, Java, and Python languages are used depending on the sub-system, and sub-systems communicate using well-defined interfaces. Software is available from a dedicated Git server. BALTRAD software has been deployed throughout Europe and more recently in Canada. Funding statement: From 2009–2014, the BALTRAD and BALTRAD+ projects were part-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund and European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument, with project numbers #009 and #101, respectively.

  15. Space Weather: The Solar Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schwenn Rainer

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available The term space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and that can affect human life and health. Our modern hi-tech society has become increasingly vulnerable to disturbances from outside the Earth system, in particular to those initiated by explosive events on the Sun: Flares release flashes of radiation that can heat up the terrestrial atmosphere such that satellites are slowed down and drop into lower orbits, solar energetic particles accelerated to near-relativistic energies may endanger astronauts traveling through interplanetary space, and coronal mass ejections are gigantic clouds of ionized gas ejected into interplanetary space that after a few hours or days may hit the Earth and cause geomagnetic storms. In this review, I describe the several chains of actions originating in our parent star, the Sun, that affect Earth, with particular attention to the solar phenomena and the subsequent effects in interplanetary space.

  16. Space Weather: The Solar Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenn, Rainer

    2006-08-01

    The term space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and that can affect human life and health. Our modern hi-tech society has become increasingly vulnerable to disturbances from outside the Earth system, in particular to those initiated by explosive events on the Sun: Flares release flashes of radiation that can heat up the terrestrial atmosphere such that satellites are slowed down and drop into lower orbits, solar energetic particles accelerated to near-relativistic energies may endanger astronauts traveling through interplanetary space, and coronal mass ejections are gigantic clouds of ionized gas ejected into interplanetary space that after a few hours or days may hit the Earth and cause geomagnetic storms. In this review, I describe the several chains of actions originating in our parent star, the Sun, that affect Earth, with particular attention to the solar phenomena and the subsequent effects in interplanetary space.

  17. Weatherization Works: Final Report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.

    2001-02-01

    In 1990, the US Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored a comprehensive evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program, the nation's largest residential energy conservation program. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) managed the five-part study. This document summarizes the findings of the evaluation. Its conclusions are based mainly on data from the 1989 program year. The evaluation concludes that the Program meets the objectives of its enabling legislation and fulfills its mission statement. Specifically, it saves energy, lowers fuel bills, and improves the health and safety of dwellings occupied by low-income people. In addition, the Program achieves its mission in a cost-effective manner based on each of three perspectives employed by the evaluators. Finally, the evaluation estimates that the investments made in 1989 will, over a 20-year lifetime, save the equivalent of 12 million barrels of oil, roughly the amount of oil added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in each of the past several years. The Program's mission is to reduce the heating and cooling costs for low-income families--particularly the elderly, persons with disabilities, and children by improving the energy efficiency of their homes and ensuring their health and safety. Substantial progress has been made, but the job is far from over. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) reports that the average low-income family spends 12 percent of its income on residential energy, compared to only 3% for the average-income family. Homes where low-income families live also have a greater need for energy efficiency improvements, but less money to pay for them.

  18. Internet-accessible real-time weather information system

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Desa, E.; Mehra, P.; Desa, E.; Gouveia, A.D.

    An internet-accessible real-time weather information system has been developed. This system provides real-time accessibility to weather information from a multitude of spatially distributed weather stations. The Internet connectivity also offers...

  19. On-line data acquisition system for Aanderaa weather station

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    AshokKumar, K.; Diwan, S.G.

    Aanderaa Weather Station can be installed at unattended remote places for collection of various weather parameters at regular preselected intervals. The weather parameters are recorded on the magnetic spool inside a battery operated datalogger which...

  20. Characteristics of pertussis outbreaks in Catalonia, Spain, 1997 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Inma; Broner, Sonia; Soldevila, Núria; Martínez, Ana; Godoy, Pere; Sala-Farré, Maria-Rosa; Company, Maria; Rius, Cristina; Domínguez, Angela; Group Of Catalonia, The Pertussis Working

    2015-01-01

    In Catalonia, pertussis outbreaks must be reported to the Department of Health. This study analyzed pertussis outbreaks between 1997 and 2010 in general and according to the characteristics of the index cases. The outbreak rate, hospitalization rate and incidence of associated cases and their 95%CI were calculated. Index cases were classified in two groups according to age (<15 years and ≥15 years) and the vaccine type received: whole cell vaccine (DTwP) or acellular vaccine (DTaP). During the study period, 230 outbreaks were reported. The outbreak rate was 2.43 × 10(-6) persons-year, and outbreaks ranged from 2 to 32 cases, with a median duration of 18 days. There were 771 associated cases, with an incidence rate of 0.8 × 10(-5) persons-year.   After classifying outbreaks according to the age of the index case, 126 outbreaks (1.3 × 10(-6) persons-year) had an index case aged <15 y and 87 (0.87 × 10(-6) person-year) had an index case aged ≥15 y (RR = 1.44, 95%CI 1.10-1.90; P = 0.007). Between 2003 and 2010, after the introduction of the acellular vaccine, the index case was vaccinated with DTwP vaccine in 25 outbreaks (0.43 × 10(-6) persons-year) and with DTaP vaccine in 32 outbreaks (0.55 × 10(-6) person-year) (RR = 0.78, 95%CI 0.46-1.31; P = 0.35). Of cases, 37.2% were correctly vaccinated, suggesting waning immunity of pertussis vaccine protection and endogenous circulation of pertussis. A greater number of outbreaks had an index case aged <15 y. No changes in the disease incidence, associated cases and hospitalization rate were observed after the introduction of DTaP.

  1. Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganushkina, Natalia; Jaynes, Allison; Liemohn, Michael

    2017-11-01

    One of the definitions of space weather describes it as the time-varying space environment that may be hazardous to technological systems in space and/or on the ground and/or endanger human health or life. The ring current has its contributions to space weather effects, both in terms of particles, ions and electrons, which constitute it, and magnetic and electric fields produced and modified by it at the ground and in space. We address the main aspects of the space weather effects from the ring current starting with brief review of ring current discovery and physical processes and the Dst-index and predictions of the ring current and storm occurrence based on it. Special attention is paid to the effects on satellites produced by the ring current electrons. The ring current is responsible for several processes in the other inner magnetosphere populations, such as the plasmasphere and radiation belts which is also described. Finally, we discuss the ring current influence on the ionosphere and the generation of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC).

  2. Mumps outbreak in Incheon, Korea, 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seon Young Cho

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose : Recently, we have noticed an increase in the number of patients with mumps in Incheon, Korea. The aim of this study is to estimate the regional trend in mumps incidence and to evaluate the factors related to the recent increase. Methods : We reviewed the medical records of 66 patients with mumps who had been admitted to Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital from July 1999 to June 2009. We compared the differences in records between “outbreak, 2009” and “nonoutbreak, 2000&#8211;2008.” Results : Of the 66 patients, 35 (53% were admitted in 2009, and 31 (47% were admitted between 2000 and 2008. Most of the patients admitted during the outbreak were over 15 years of age (80.0%, were born before 1993 (77.1%, and had received a single dose of mumps vaccine (62.9%. There were no significant differences in contact history, present address, clinical manifestations, and complications, except for orchitis, between the two groups. Conclusion : There was a sharp increase in the number of inpatients with mumps who were born before 1993 and who were over 15 years of age. We recommend that a booster vaccination be considered for adolescents and young adults born before 1993 who are susceptible to mumps infection due to their reduced opportunities for receiving two doses of mumps vaccine.

  3. Identification of resistance and virulence factors in an epidemic Enterobacter hormaechei outbreak strain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paauw, A.; Caspers, M.P.M.; Leverstein-van Hall, M.A.; Schuren, F.H.J.; Montijn, R.C.; Verhoef, J.; Fluit, A.C.

    2009-01-01

    Bacterial strains differ in their ability to cause hospital outbreaks. Using comparative genomic hybridization, Enterobacter cloacae complex isolates were studied to identify genetic markers specific for Enterobacter cloacae complex outbreak strains. No outbreak-specific genes were found that were

  4. Space weather and coronal mass ejections

    CERN Document Server

    Howard, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Space weather has attracted a lot of attention in recent times. Severe space weather can disrupt spacecraft, and on Earth can be the cause of power outages and power station failure. It also presents a radiation hazard for airline passengers and astronauts. These ""magnetic storms"" are most commonly caused by coronal mass ejections, or CMES, which are large eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun that can reach speeds of several thousand km/s. In this SpringerBrief, Space Weather and Coronal Mass Ejections, author Timothy Howard briefly introduces the coronal mass ejection, its sc

  5. Weather and Air Quality Data of Helsinki

    OpenAIRE

    Bhuiyan, Fairuz

    2016-01-01

    The topic of this thesis is “Weather and air quality data of Helsinki” and the main objective was researching, analyzing and classifying the contents and of the weather and air quality data for the Cityzer project. The final objective was to map and understand the data and the business ecosystem around it, and then classify the data and paint a picture of the whole ecosystem around the data. The aim was to work with the weather companies and partners, such as Vaisala, Pegasor, The Finnish...

  6. Assessing Weather Curiosity in University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, A. E.

    2017-12-01

    This research focuses upon measuring an individual's level of trait curiosity about the weather using the Weather Curiosity Scale (WCS). The measure consists of 15 self-report items that describe weather preferences and/or behaviors that people may perform more or less frequently. The author reports on two initial studies of the WCS that have used the responses of 710 undergraduate students from a large university in the southeastern United States. In the first study, factor analysis of the 15 items indicated that the measure was unidimensional - suggesting that its items singularly assessed weather curiosity. The WCS also was internally consistent as evidenced by an acceptable Cronbach's alpha, a = .81). The second study sought to identify other personality variables that may relate with the WCS scores and thus illuminate the nature of weather curiosity. Several clusters of personality variables appear to underlie the curiosity levels people exhibited, the first of which related to perceptual curiosity (r = .59). Being curious about sights, sounds, smells, and textures generally related somewhat to curiosity about weather. Two measures of trait sensitivity to environmental stimulation, the Highly Sensitive Person Scale (r = .47) and the Orientation Sensitivity Scale of the Adult Temperament Questionnaire (r = .43), also predicted weather curiosity levels. Finally, possessing extraverted personality traits (r = .34) and an intense style of experiencing one's emotions (r = .33) related to weather curiosity. How can this measure be used in K-12 or post-secondary settings to further climate literacy? First, the WCS can identify students with natural curiosities about weather and climate so these students may be given more challenging instruction that will leverage their natural interests. Second, high-WCS students may function as weather and climate ambassadors during inquiry-based learning activities and thus help other students who are not as oriented to the

  7. NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard; hide

    2012-01-01

    The NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing forecasts, alerts, research, and educational support to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to the needs of the general space weather community. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, custom space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts. There are many challenges in providing accurate descriptions of past, present, and expected space weather events - and the Space Weather Center at NASA GSFC employs several innovative solutions to provide access to a comprehensive collection of both observational data, as well as space weather model/simulation data. We'll describe the challenges we've faced with managing hundreds of data streams, running models in real-time, data storage, and data dissemination. We'll also highlight several systems and tools that are utilized by the Space Weather Center in our daily operations, all of which are available to the general community as well. These systems and services include a web-based application called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), two mobile space weather applications for both IOS and Android devices, an external API for web-service style access to data, google earth compatible data products, and a downloadable client-based visualization tool.

  8. Modeling extreme "Carrington-type" space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Glocer, Alex

    2014-06-01

    There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst˜=-1600 nT.

  9. Space Weather Research in Armenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilingarian, A. A.

    DVIN for ASEC (Data Visualization interactive Network for Aragats Space Environmental Center) is product for accessing and analysis the on-line data from Solar Monitors located at high altitude research station on Mt. Aragats in Armenia. Data from ASEC monitors is used worldwide for scientific purposes and for monitoring of severe solar storms in progress. Alert service, based on the automatic analysis of variations of the different species of cosmic ray particles is available for subscribers. DVIN advantages: DVIN is strategically important as a scientific application to help develop space science and to foster global collaboration in forecasting potential hazards of solar storms. It precisely fits with the goals of the new evolving information society to provide long-term monitoring and collection of high quality scientific data, and enables adequate dialogue between scientists, decision makers, and civil society. The system is highly interactive and exceptional information is easily accessible online. Data can be monitored and analyzed for desired time spans in a fast and reliable manner. The ASEC activity is an example of a balance between the scientific independence of fundamental research and the needs of civil society. DVIN is also an example of how scientific institutions can apply the newest powerful methods of information technologies, such as multivariate data analysis, to their data and also how information technologies can provide convenient and reliable access to this data and to new knowledge for the world-wide scientific community. DVIN provides very wide possibilities for sharing data and sending warnings and alerts to scientists and other entities world-wide, which have fundamental and practical interest in knowing the space weather conditions.

  10. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management; Powernext Weather, des indices de reference pour gerer le risque meteo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  11. Measles Cases during Ebola Outbreak, West Africa, 2013-2106.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colavita, Francesca; Biava, Mirella; Castilletti, Concetta; Quartu, Serena; Vairo, Francesco; Caglioti, Claudia; Agrati, Chiara; Lalle, Eleonora; Bordi, Licia; Lanini, Simone; Guanti, Michela Delli; Miccio, Rossella; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Capobianchi, Maria R; Di Caro, Antonino

    2017-06-01

    The recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa caused breakdowns in public health systems, which might have caused outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. We tested 80 patients admitted to an Ebola treatment center in Freetown, Sierra Leone, for measles. These patients were negative for Ebola virus. Measles virus IgM was detected in 13 (16%) of the patients.

  12. Large outbreaks of Salmonella Typhimurium infection in Denmark in 2008

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ethelberg, S.; Wingstrand, Anne; Jensen, T.

    2008-01-01

    An outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium phage type U292 has been ongoing in Denmark since 1 April, with 1,054 cases registered until 23 October 2008. Extensive investigations including hypothesis-generating interviews, matched case-control studies, cohort studies in embedded outbreaks, shopping list...

  13. High case fatality cholera outbreak in Western Kenya, August 2010 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Cholera is a disease caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholera and has been an important public health problem since its first pandemic in 1817. Kenya has had numerous outbreaks of cholera ever since it was first detected there during 1971. In August 2010 an outbreak of cholera occurred in Kuria West District ...

  14. Tuberculosis Outbreak Investigations in the U.S.

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-02-22

    In this podcast, Dr Kiren Mitruka, medical officer with CDC's Tuberculosis Outbreak Investigations team, discusses tuberculosis outbreak investigations in the U.S. from 2002-2008.  Created: 2/22/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 3/22/2011.

  15. First chikungunya outbreak in Pakistan: a trail of viral attacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.H. Mallhi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite explicit warning from the National Institute of Health, Pakistan experienced its first chikungunya outbreak in the metropolis of Karachi. We underscore the attention of health authorities and healthcare professionals towards contributing factors associated with this outbreak and the measures required to combat this viral disease.

  16. Outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Sequence Type 120, Peru, 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Escalona, Narjol; Gavilan, Ronnie G; Toro, Magaly; Zamudio, Maria L; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

    2016-07-01

    In 2009, an outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus occurred in Piura, Cajamarca, Lambayeque, and Lima, Peru. Whole-genome sequencing of clinical and environmental samples from the outbreak revealed a new V. parahaemolyticus clone. All the isolates identified belonged to a single clonal complex described exclusively in Asia before its emergence in Peru.

  17. Outbreaks of gastroenteritis linked to lettuce, Denmark, January 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ethelberg, S.; Lisby, M.; Bottiger, B.

    2010-01-01

    At least 11 linked outbreaks of gastroenteritis with a total of 260 cases have occurred in Denmark in mid January 2010. Investigations showed that the outbreaks were caused by norovirus of several genotypes and by enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli. Lettuce of the lollo bionda type grown in France...

  18. Teachers' Risk Perception and Needs in Addressing Infectious Disease Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Emmy M. Y.; Cheng, May M. H.; Lo, S.K.

    2010-01-01

    The outbreak of the Influenza A (H1N1) virus has led to numerous precautionary school closures in several countries. No research is available on the school teachers' perceptions as a health protective resource in controlling communicable disease outbreaks. The purposes of this study were to examine the risk perception, the perceived understanding…

  19. Case Series: Outbreak of Conversion Disorder among Amish Adolescent Girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassady, Joslyn D.; Kirschke, David L.; Jones, Timothy F.; Craig, Allen S.; Bermudez, Ovidio B.; Schaffner, William

    2005-01-01

    Objective: Outbreak investigations are challenging in a cross-cultural context, and outbreaks of psychiatric disease are rare in any community. We investigated a cluster of unexplained debilitating illness among Amish girls. Method: We reviewed the medical records of cases, consulted with health care providers, performed active case finding,…

  20. High case fatality cholera outbreak in Western Kenya, August 2010

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    Abstract. Introduction: Cholera is a disease caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholera and has been an important public health problem since its first pandemic in 1817. Kenya has had numerous outbreaks of cholera ever since it was first detected there during 1971. In August 2010 an outbreak of cholera occurred in Kuria ...

  1. An outbreak of food poisoning among children attending an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives. To describe an outbreak of food. poisoning at a major international sports event in Johannesburg and to determine the likely cause and source of the outbreak. Design. A descriptive, case-control study. Setting. An international sports event in Johannesburg. Methods. A questionnaire survey of involved children ...

  2. Cost of dengue outbreaks: literature review and country case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, Hans-Christian; Butenschoen, Vicki Marie; Tran, Hien Tinh; Gozzer, Ernesto; Skewes, Ronald; Mahendradhata, Yodi; Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia; Kroeger, Axel; Farlow, Andrew

    2013-11-06

    Dengue disease surveillance and vector surveillance are presumed to detect dengue outbreaks at an early stage and to save--through early response activities--resources, and reduce the social and economic impact of outbreaks on individuals, health systems and economies. The aim of this study is to unveil evidence on the cost of dengue outbreaks. Economic evidence on dengue outbreaks was gathered by conducting a literature review and collecting information on the costs of recent dengue outbreaks in 4 countries: Peru, Dominican Republic, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The literature review distinguished between costs of dengue illness including cost of dengue outbreaks, cost of interventions and cost-effectiveness of interventions. Seventeen publications on cost of dengue showed a large range of costs from 0.2 Million US$ in Venezuela to 135.2 Million US$ in Brazil. However, these figures were not standardized to make them comparable. Furthermore, dengue outbreak costs are calculated differently across the publications, and cost of dengue illness is used interchangeably with cost of dengue outbreaks. Only one paper from Australia analysed the resources saved through active dengue surveillance. Costs of vector control interventions have been reported in 4 studies, indicating that the costs of such interventions are lower than those of actual outbreaks. Nine papers focussed on the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccines or dengue vector control; they do not provide any direct information on cost of dengue outbreaks, but their modelling methodologies could guide future research on cost-effectiveness of national surveillance systems.The country case studies--conducted in very different geographic and health system settings - unveiled rough estimates for 2011 outbreak costs of: 12 million US$ in Vietnam, 6.75 million US$ in Indonesia, 4.5 million US$ in Peru and 2.8 million US$ in Dominican Republic (all in 2012 US$). The proportions of the different cost components (vector control

  3. Cost of dengue outbreaks: literature review and country case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Dengue disease surveillance and vector surveillance are presumed to detect dengue outbreaks at an early stage and to save – through early response activities – resources, and reduce the social and economic impact of outbreaks on individuals, health systems and economies. The aim of this study is to unveil evidence on the cost of dengue outbreaks. Methods Economic evidence on dengue outbreaks was gathered by conducting a literature review and collecting information on the costs of recent dengue outbreaks in 4 countries: Peru, Dominican Republic, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The literature review distinguished between costs of dengue illness including cost of dengue outbreaks, cost of interventions and cost-effectiveness of interventions. Results Seventeen publications on cost of dengue showed a large range of costs from 0.2 Million US$ in Venezuela to 135.2 Million US$ in Brazil. However, these figures were not standardized to make them comparable. Furthermore, dengue outbreak costs are calculated differently across the publications, and cost of dengue illness is used interchangeably with cost of dengue outbreaks. Only one paper from Australia analysed the resources saved through active dengue surveillance. Costs of vector control interventions have been reported in 4 studies, indicating that the costs of such interventions are lower than those of actual outbreaks. Nine papers focussed on the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccines or dengue vector control; they do not provide any direct information on cost of dengue outbreaks, but their modelling methodologies could guide future research on cost-effectiveness of national surveillance systems. The country case studies – conducted in very different geographic and health system settings - unveiled rough estimates for 2011 outbreak costs of: 12 million US$ in Vietnam, 6.75 million US$ in Indonesia, 4.5 million US$ in Peru and 2.8 million US$ in Dominican Republic (all in 2012 US$). The proportions of the

  4. Impact of Tactical and Strategic Weather Avoidance on Separation Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refai, Mohamad S.; Windhorst, Robert

    2011-01-01

    The ability to keep flights away from weather hazards while maintaining aircraft-to-aircraft separation is critically important. The Advanced Airspace Concept is an automation concept that implements a ground-based strategic conflict resolution algorithm for management of aircraft separation. The impact of dynamic and uncertain weather avoidance on this concept is investigated. A strategic weather rerouting system is integrated with the Advanced Airspace Concept, which also provides a tactical weather avoidance algorithm, in a fast time simulation of the Air Transportation System. Strategic weather rerouting is used to plan routes around weather in the 20 minute to two-hour time horizon. To address forecast uncertainty, flight routes are revised at 15 minute intervals. Tactical weather avoidance is used for short term trajectory adjustments (30 minute planning horizon) that are updated every minute to address any weather conflicts (instances where aircraft are predicted to pass through weather cells) that are left unresolved by strategic weather rerouting. The fast time simulation is used to assess the impact of tactical weather avoidance on the performance of automated conflict resolution as well as the impact of strategic weather rerouting on both conflict resolution and tactical weather avoidance. The results demonstrate that both tactical weather avoidance and strategic weather rerouting increase the algorithm complexity required to find aircraft conflict resolutions. Results also demonstrate that tactical weather avoidance is prone to higher airborne delay than strategic weather rerouting. Adding strategic weather rerouting to tactical weather avoidance reduces total airborne delays for the reported scenario by 18% and reduces the number of remaining weather violations by 13%. Finally, two features are identified that have proven important for strategic weather rerouting to realize these benefits; namely, the ability to revise reroutes and the use of maneuvers

  5. [Outbreaks of viral hepatitis E in the Czech Republic?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trmal, Josef; Pavlík, Ivo; Vasícková, Petra; Matejícková, Ladislava; Simůnková, Lenka; Luks, Stanislav; Pazderková, Jana

    2012-05-01

    Until recently, viral hepatitis E (VHE) has typically been an imported infection, related to travel to developing countries. A number of travel-unrelated VHE cases currently diagnosed in the Czech Republic. Outcomes of the epidemiological investigations of two VHE outbreaks associated with the consumption of pork and pork products at pig-slaughtering feasts are presented. Thirteen cases have been reported in the first outbreak and eight cases in the second outbreak. The epidemiological investigations are described and the experience gained in analysing suspected biological specimens is presented. The source of infection has not been identified in the first outbreak while in the other one, a link between human cases and infection in farm pigs was revealed for the first time. Although the epidemiological investigation may not always lead to the detection of the VHE source, it must be conducted in any outbreak and can only be successful when done in cooperation of the public health authorities with the veterinary health agency.

  6. Molecular Investigation of Tularemia Outbreaks, Spain, 1997–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariza-Miguel, Jaime; Johansson, Anders; Fernández-Natal, María Isabel; Martínez-Nistal, Carmen; Orduña, Antonio; Rodríguez-Ferri, Elías F.; Hernández, Marta

    2014-01-01

    Tularemia outbreaks occurred in northwestern Spain in 1997–1998 and 2007–2008 and affected >1,000 persons. We assessed isolates involved in these outbreaks by using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis with 2 restriction enzymes and multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis of 16 genomic loci of Francisella tularensis, the cause of this disease. Isolates were divided into 3 pulsotypes by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and 8 allelic profiles by multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis. Isolates obtained from the second tularemia outbreak had the same genotypes as isolates obtained from the first outbreak. Both outbreaks were caused by genotypes of genetic subclade B.Br:FTNF002–00, which is widely distributed in countries in central and western Europe. Thus, reemergence of tularemia in Spain was not caused by the reintroduction of exotic strains, but probably by persistence of local reservoirs of infection. PMID:24750848

  7. Molecular Characterization of Two Major Dengue Outbreaks in Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto-Garita, Claudio; Somogyi, Teresita; Vicente-Santos, Amanda; Corrales-Aguilar, Eugenia

    2016-07-06

    Dengue virus (DENV) (Flavivirus, Flaviviridae) is a reemerging arthropod-borne virus with a worldwide circulation, transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Since the first detection of its main transmitting vector in 1992 and the invasion of DENV-1 in 1993, Costa Rica has faced dengue outbreaks yearly. In 2007 and 2013, Costa Rica experienced two of the largest outbreaks in terms of total and severe cases. To provide genetic information about the etiologic agents producing these outbreaks, we conducted phylogenetic analysis of viruses isolated from human samples. A total of 23 DENV-1 and DENV-2 sequences were characterized. These analyses signaled that DENV-1 genotype V and DENV-2 American/Asian genotype were circulating in those outbreaks. Our results suggest that the 2007 and 2013 outbreak viral strains of DENV-1 and DENV-2 originated from nearby countries and underwent in situ microevolution. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  8. Road weather management performance measures : 2012 update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    In 2007, the Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) conducted a study with stakeholders from the transportation and meteorological communities to define eleven performance measures that would enable the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to determ...

  9. Passenger bus industry weather information application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-21

    Adverse weather significantly affects the United States national transportation system, including commercial companies : that rely on highways to support their enterprises. The Passenger Bus (Motorcoach) Industry (PBI) is one such affected : user who...

  10. Weather Station: Palau: Koror: Ngeanges Island

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Since 2007, the Coral Reef Research Foundation (CRRF) has operated a Campbell Scientific automatic weather station (AWS) in Palau designed to measure...

  11. Developments in weather responsive traffic management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    This report provides a comprehensive overview of weather-responsive traffic management practices. It focuses on what WRTM strategies exist, where they have been used, the benefits realized, what improvements are needed, and how to implement and evalu...

  12. Pre-Weather Bureau Observation Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The collection consists of monthly weather records from U.S. Army Forts stations (~1820-1871), U.S. Army Signal Service Stations (1871-1892), Smithsonian Institution...

  13. Characterization of weathering profile in granites and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    and Environmental Engineering (2iE), 01 BP 594 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. 2Laboratoire ...... A 1984 Isotope studies as a final stage in groundwater investigations on ... of the hydrogeology of deeply weathered crystalline rock: Evidence ...

  14. Weather Station: Hawaii: Oahu: Coconut Island

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology (HIMB) automatic weather station (AWS) records hourly measurements of precipitation, air temperature, wind speed and...

  15. Robotic weather balloon launchers spread in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Julia

    2018-04-01

    Last week, things began stirring inside the truck-size box that sat among melting piles of snow at the airport in Fairbanks, Alaska. Before long, the roof of the box yawned open and a weather balloon took off into the sunny afternoon, instruments dangling. The entire launch was triggered with the touch of a button, 5 kilometers away at an office of the National Weather Service (NWS). The flight was smooth, just one of hundreds of twice-daily balloon launches around the world that radio back crucial data for weather forecasts. But most of those balloons are launched by people; the robotic launchers, which are rolling out across Alaska, are proving to be controversial. NWS says the autolaunchers will save money and free up staff to work on more pressing matters. But representatives of the employee union question their reliability, and say they will hasten the end of Alaska's remote weather offices, where forecasting duties and hours have already been slashed.

  16. Bringing Space Weather Down to Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiff, P. H.; Sumners, C.

    2005-05-01

    Most of the public has no idea what Space Weather is, but a number of innovative programs, web sites, magazine articles, TV shows and planetarium shows have taken space weather from an unknown quantity to a much more visible field. This paper reviews new developments, including the new Space Weather journal, the very popular spaceweather.com website, new immersive planetarium shows that can go "on the road", and well-publicized Sun-Earth Day activities. Real-time data and reasonably accurate spaceweather forecasts are available from several websites, with many subscribers. Even the renaissance of amateur radio because of Homeland Security brings a new generation of learners to wonder what is going on in the Sun today. The NSF Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling has a dedicated team to reach both the public and a greater diversity of new scientists.

  17. Estimated Cost to a Restaurant of a Foodborne Illness Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, Sarah M; Asti, Lindsey; Nyathi, Sindiso; Spiker, Marie L; Lee, Bruce Y

    Although outbreaks of restaurant-associated foodborne illness occur periodically and make the news, a restaurant may not be aware of the cost of an outbreak. We estimated this cost under varying circumstances. We developed a computational simulation model; scenarios varied outbreak size (5 to 250 people affected), pathogen (n = 15), type of dining establishment (fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining), lost revenue (ie, meals lost per illness), cost of lawsuits and legal fees, fines, and insurance premium increases. We estimated that the cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak ranged from $3968 to $1.9 million for a fast-food restaurant, $6330 to $2.1 million for a fast-casual restaurant, $8030 to $2.2 million for a casual-dining restaurant, and $8273 to $2.6 million for a fine-dining restaurant, varying from a 5-person outbreak, with no lost revenue, lawsuits, legal fees, or fines, to a 250-person outbreak, with high lost revenue (100 meals lost per illness), and a high amount of lawsuits and legal fees ($1 656 569) and fines ($100 000). This cost amounts to 10% to 5790% of a restaurant's annual marketing costs and 0.3% to 101% of annual profits and revenue. The biggest cost drivers were lawsuits and legal fees, outbreak size, and lost revenue. Pathogen type affected the cost by a maximum of $337 000, the difference between a Bacillus cereus outbreak (least costly) and a listeria outbreak (most costly). The cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak to a restaurant can be substantial and outweigh the typical costs of prevention and control measures. Our study can help decision makers determine investment and motivate research for infection-control measures in restaurant settings.

  18. The Methanol Poisoning Outbreaks in Libya 2013 and Kenya 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostrup, Morten; Edwards, Jeffrey K; Abukalish, Mohamed; Ezzabi, Masoud; Some, David; Ritter, Helga; Menge, Tom; Abdelrahman, Ahmed; Rootwelt, Rebecca; Janssens, Bart; Lind, Kyrre; Paasma, Raido; Hovda, Knut Erik

    2016-01-01

    Outbreaks of methanol poisoning occur frequently on a global basis, affecting poor and vulnerable populations. Knowledge regarding methanol is limited, likely many cases and even outbreaks go unnoticed, with patients dying unnecessarily. We describe findings from the first three large outbreaks of methanol poisoning where Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) responded, and evaluate the benefits of a possible future collaboration between local health authorities, a Non-Governmental Organisation and international expertise. Retrospective study of three major methanol outbreaks in Libya (2013) and Kenya (May and July 2014). Data were collected from MSF field personnel, local health personnel, hospital files, and media reports. In Tripoli, Libya, over 1,000 patients were poisoned with a reported case fatality rate of 10% (101/1,066). In Kenya, two outbreaks resulted in approximately 341 and 126 patients, with case fatality rates of 29% (100/341) and 21% (26/126), respectively. MSF launched an emergency team with international experts, medications and equipment, however, the outbreaks were resolving by the time of arrival. Recognition of an outbreak of methanol poisoning and diagnosis seem to be the most challenging tasks, with significant delay from time of first presentations to public health warnings being issued. In spite of the rapid response from an emergency team, the outbreaks were nearly concluded by the time of arrival. A major impact on the outcome was not seen, but large educational trainings were conducted to increase awareness and knowledge about methanol poisoning. Based on this training, MSF was able to send a local emergency team during the second outbreak, supporting that such an approach could improve outcomes. Basic training, simplified treatment protocols, point-of-care diagnostic tools, and early support when needed, are likely the most important components to impact the consequences of methanol poisoning outbreaks in these challenging contexts.

  19. Seafloor weathering buffering climate: numerical experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farahat, N. X.; Archer, D. E.; Abbot, D. S.

    2013-12-01

    Continental silicate weathering is widely held to consume atmospheric CO2 at a rate controlled in part by temperature, resulting in a climate-weathering feedback [Walker et al., 1981]. It has been suggested that weathering of oceanic crust of warm mid-ocean ridge flanks also has a CO2 uptake rate that is controlled by climate [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001; Brady and Gislason, 1997]. Although this effect might not be significant on present-day Earth [Caldeira, 1995], seafloor weathering may be more pronounced during snowball states [Le Hir et al., 2008], during the Archean when seafloor spreading rates were faster [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001], and on waterworld planets [Abbot et al., 2012]. Previous studies of seafloor weathering have made significant contributions using qualitative, generally one-box, models, and the logical next step is to extend this work using a spatially resolved model. For example, experiments demonstrate that seafloor weathering reactions are temperature dependent, but it is not clear whether the deep ocean temperature affects the temperature at which the reactions occur, or if instead this temperature is set only by geothermal processes. Our goal is to develop a 2-D numerical model that can simulate hydrothermal circulation and resulting alteration of oceanic basalts, and can therefore address such questions. A model of diffusive and convective heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous media simulates hydrothermal circulation through porous oceanic basalt. Unsteady natural convection is solved for using a Darcy model of porous media flow that has been extensively benchmarked. Background hydrothermal circulation is coupled to mineral reaction kinetics of basaltic alteration and hydrothermal mineral precipitation. In order to quantify seafloor weathering as a climate-weathering feedback process, this model focuses on hydrothermal reactions that influence carbon uptake as well as ocean alkalinity: silicate rock dissolution, calcium and magnesium leaching

  20. Laboratory weathering of combusted oil shale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essington, M.E.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the mineralogy and leachate chemistry of three combusted oil shales (two Green River Formation and one New Albany) in a laboratory weathering environment using the humidity cell technique. The mineralogy of the combusted western oil shales (Green River Formation) is process dependent. In general, processing resulted in the formation of anhydrite, lime, periclase, and hematite. During the initial stages of weathering, lime, periclase, and hematite. During the initial stages of weathering, lime, periclase, and anhydrite dissolve and ettringite precipitates. The initial leachates are highly alkaline, saline, and dominated by Na, hydroxide, and SO 4 . As weathering continues, ettringite precipitates. The initial leachates are highly alkaline, saline, and dominated by Na, hydroxide, and SO 4 . As weathering continues, ettringite dissolves, gypsum and calcite precipitate, and the leachates are dominated by Mg, SO 4 , and CO 3 . Leachate pH is rapidly reduced to between 8.5 and 9 with leaching. The combusted eastern oil shale (New Albany) is composed of quartz, illite, hematite, and orthoclase. Weathering results in the precipitation of gypsum. The combusted eastern oil shale did not display a potential to produce acid drainage. Leachate chemistry was dominated by Ca and SO 4 . Element concentrations continually decreased with weathering. IN a western disposal environment receiving minimal atmospheric precipitation, spent oil shale will remain in the initial stages of weathering, and highly alkaline and saline conditions will dominate leachate chemistry. In an eastern disposal environment, soluble salts will be rapidly removed from the spent oil shale to potentially affect the surrounding environment

  1. Water geochemistry of the Xijiang basin rivers, South China: Chemical weathering and CO2 consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Zhifang; Liu Congqiang

    2010-01-01

    Research highlights: → The Xijiang River is the second largest river in China and flows through a large carbonate rock region in South China. → Sulfuric acid, which emanate from acid precipitation and the oxidation of sulfide minerals, is involved as a proton donor in weathering reactions in the Xijiang basin. → Calculated results show that the contribution of cations from rock weathering induced by sulfuric acid accounts for approximately 11.2%. → The flux of CO 2 released into the atmosphere is approximately 0.41 x 10 12 gC yr -1 produced by sulfuric acid-induced carbonate weathering in the Xijiang basin. → Sulfuric acid-induced carbonate weathering could counterbalance a significant part of the CO 2 consumed by silicate weathering. - Abstract: The Xijiang River, the mainstream of the Zhujiang (Pearl) River, which is the second largest river in China in terms of discharge, flows through a large carbonate rock region in South China. The chemical and Sr isotopic compositions of the Xijiang waters were determined during the high-flow season in order to understand the chemical weathering processes, associated CO 2 consumption and anthropogenic influences within the carbonate-dominated basin. The major ion compositions of the river waters are characterized by the dominance of Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , HCO 3 - and are significantly rich in SO 4 2- . The SO 4 2- is mainly derived from the oxidation of sulfide minerals and acid precipitation caused by coal combustion. Chemical and Sr isotopic compositions of the river waters indicate that four reservoirs (carbonates, silicates, evaporites and anthropogenic inputs) contribute to the total dissolved loads. The chemical weathering rates of carbonates and silicates for the Xijiang basin are estimated to be approximately 78.5 and 7.45 ton km -2 a -1 , respectively. The total chemical weathering rate of rocks for the Xijiang basin is approximately 86.1 ton km -2 a -1 or 42 mm ka -1 , which is much higher than global mean

  2. Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

  3. Topographic imprint on chemical weathering in deeply weathered soil-mantled landscapes (southern Brazil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, Veerle; Schoonejans, Jerome; Ameijeiras-Marino, Yolanda; Opfergelt, Sophie; Minella, Jean

    2017-04-01

    The regolith mantle is defined as the thin layer of unconsolidated material overlaying bedrock that contributes to shape the Earth's surface. The development of the regolith mantle in a landscape is the result of in-situ weathering, atmospheric input and downhill transport of weathering products. Bedrock weathering - the physical and chemical transformations of rock to soil - contributes to the vertical development of the regolith layer through downward propagation of the weathering front. Lateral transport of soil particles, aggregates and solutes by diffusive and concentrated particle and solute fluxes result in lateral redistribution of weathering products over the hillslope. In this study, we aim to expand the empirical basis on long-term soil evolution at the landscape scale through a detailed study of soil weathering in subtropical soils. Spatial variability in chemical mass fluxes and weathering intensity were studied along two toposequences with similar climate, lithology and vegetation but different slope morphology. This allowed us to isolate the topographic imprint on chemical weathering and soil development. The toposequences have convexo-concave slope morphology, and eight regolith profiles were analysed involving the flat upslope, steep midslope and flat toeslope part. Our data show a clear topographic imprint on soil development. Along hillslope, the chemical weathering intensity of the regolith profiles increases with distance from the crest. In contrast to the upslope positions, the soils in the basal concavities develop on in-situ and transported regolith. While the chemical weathering extent on the slope convexities (the upslope profiles) is similar for the steep and gentle toposequence, there is a clear difference in the rate of increase of the chemical weathering extent with distance from the crest. The increase of chemical weathering extent along hillslope is highest for the steep toposequence, suggesting that topography enhances soil particle

  4. "Share weather" : Design and evaluation of a new concept for sharing weather information

    OpenAIRE

    Elevant, Katarina

    2013-01-01

    Already centuries ago, humans had observed the weather in their everyday lives, seeking ways to understand, comprehend, and predict it. Until the present day, weather has had tremendous impacts on our lives and with climate change human civilizations as well. With new media technologies weather constitutes a part of the information services used by many residents of modern cities, people and businesses worldwide. The rise of Web 2.0, a cyberspace where individuals may connect and interact und...

  5. Weather-Driven Variation in Dengue Activity in Australia Examined Using a Process-Based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannister-Tyrrell, Melanie; Williams, Craig; Ritchie, Scott A.; Rau, Gina; Lindesay, Janette; Mercer, Geoff; Harley, David

    2013-01-01

    The impact of weather variation on dengue transmission in Cairns, Australia, was determined by applying a process-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) that incorporated local meteorologic, entomologic, and demographic data. Analysis showed that inter-annual weather variation is one of the significant determinants of dengue outbreak receptivity. Cross-correlation analyses showed that DENSiM simulated epidemics of similar relative magnitude and timing to those historically recorded in reported dengue cases in Cairns during 1991–2009, (r = 0.372, P < 0.01). The DENSiM model can now be used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on dengue transmission. Understanding the impact of climate variation on the geographic range, seasonality, and magnitude of dengue transmission will enhance development of adaptation strategies to minimize future disease burden in Australia. PMID:23166197

  6. Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.; hide

    2015-01-01

    The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5 latitude by 2-3 longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia,Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DCD1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRAs precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphereocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.

  7. Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shu-Chieh; Luna, Rocio; Johnson, Walter W.

    2013-01-01

    Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

  8. Weather derivatives or how an energy company can hedge its weather risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tahghighi, A.; Carpentier, Ph.

    2000-01-01

    This paper gives a detailed overview of weather derivatives and explains where this new class of financial products falls. The emergence of weather derivatives came about as a response to a need in the energy sector to hedge this sector's weather risks. This article focuses on the nature of these financial contracts, what they include and how they are priced. This article concludes by stating that energy companies in Europe can no longer afford to remain exposed to weather risks in an increasingly privatized and competitive market

  9. The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. (Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States)); Witherspoon, M.J. (National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States)); Brown, M.A. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States))

    1992-05-01

    This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy's national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

  10. The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. [Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States); Witherspoon, M.J. [National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States); Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1992-05-01

    This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy`s national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

  11. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  12. An outbreak of Ebola in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okware, S I; Omaswa, F G; Zaramba, S; Opio, A; Lutwama, J J; Kamugisha, J; Rwaguma, E B; Kagwa, P; Lamunu, M

    2002-12-01

    An outbreak of Ebola disease was reported from Gulu district, Uganda, on 8 October 2000. The outbreak was characterized by fever and haemorrhagic manifestations, and affected health workers and the general population of Rwot-Obillo, a village 14 km north of Gulu town. Later, the outbreak spread to other parts of the country including Mbarara and Masindi districts. Response measures included surveillance, community mobilization, case and logistics management. Three coordination committees were formed: National Task Force (NTF), a District Task Force (DTF) and an Interministerial Task Force (IMTF). The NTF and DTF were responsible for coordination and follow-up of implementation of activities at the national and district levels, respectively, while the IMTF provided political direction and handled sensitive issues related to stigma, trade, tourism and international relations. The international response was coordinated by the World Health Organization (WHO) under the umbrella organization of the Global Outbreak and Alert Response Network. A WHO/CDC case definition for Ebola was adapted and used to capture four categories of cases, namely, the 'alert', 'suspected', 'probable' and 'confirmed cases'. Guidelines for identification and management of cases were developed and disseminated to all persons responsible for surveillance, case management, contact tracing and Information Education Communication (IEC). For the duration of the epidemic that lasted up to 16 January 2001, a total of 425 cases with 224 deaths were reported countrywide. The case fatality rate was 53%. The attack rate (AR) was highest in women. The average AR for Gulu district was 12.6 cases/10 000 inhabitants when the contacts of all cases were considered and was 4.5 cases/10 000 if limited only to contacts of laboratory confirmed cases. The secondary AR was 2.5% when nearly 5000 contacts were followed up for 21 days. Uganda was finally declared Ebola free on 27 February 2001, 42 days after the last case

  13. Cryptosporidiosis Outbreak Associated With a Single Hotel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fill, Mary-Margaret A; Lloyd, Jennifer; Chakraverty, Tamal; Sweat, David; Manners, Judy; Garman, Katie; Hlavsa, Michele C; Roellig, Dawn M; Dunn, John R; Schaffner, William; Jones, Timothy F

    2017-05-01

    We investigated a gastrointestinal illness cluster among persons who attended a baseball tournament (>200 teams) during July 2015. We interviewed representatives of 19 teams; illness was reported among only the 9 (47%) teams that stayed at Hotel A (p Hotel A was significantly associated with illness (odds ratio: 7.3; 95% confidence interval: 3.6, 15.2). Eight out of nine (89%) stool specimens tested were positive for Cryptosporidium, with C. hominis IfA12G1 subtype identified in two specimens. The environmental health assessment detected a low free available chlorine level, and pool water tested positive for E. coli and total coliforms. A possible diarrheal contamination event, substantial hotel pool use, and use of cyanuric acid might have contributed to this outbreak and magnitude. Aquatic facilities practicing proper operation and maintenance (e.g., following the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Model Aquatic Health Code) can protect the public’s health.

  14. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petter Holme

    Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  15. BCG protects toddlers during a tuberculosis outbreak.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Gaensbauer, J T

    2009-05-01

    In 2007, an outbreak of tuberculosis occurred in a toddler population attending two child care centres in Cork, Ireland. Of 268 children exposed, 18 were eventually diagnosed with active tuberculosis. We present the initial clinical and radiographic characteristics of the active disease group. Mantoux testing was positive in only 66% of cases. All cases were either pulmonary or involved hilar adenopathy on chest radiograph; there were no cases of disseminated disease or meningitis. 24% of the exposed children had been previously vaccinated with BCG, and no case of active disease was found in this group (p = 0.016), suggesting a profound protective effect of BCG in this population. Our experience provides evidence supporting a protective effect of BCG against pulmonary disease in young children.

  16. Space weather in the EU’s FP7 Space Theme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiarini Paola

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Technological infrastructures in space and on ground provide services on which modern society and economies rely. Space weather related research is funded under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP7 of the European Union in response to the need of protecting such critical infrastructures from the damage which could be caused by extreme space weather events. The calls for proposals published under the topic “Security of space assets from space weather events” of the FP7 Space Theme aimed to improve forecasts and predictions of disruptive space weather events as well as identify best practices to limit the impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructures and their data provision. Space weather related work was also funded under the topic “Exploitation of space science and exploration data”, which aims to add value to space missions and Earth-based observations by contributing to the effective scientific exploitation of collected data. Since 2007 a total of 20 collaborative projects have been funded, covering a variety of physical phenomena associated with space weather, from ionospheric disturbances and scintillation, to geomagnetically induced currents at Earth’s surface, to coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles. This article provides an overview of the funded projects, touching upon some results and referring to specific websites for a more exhaustive description of the projects’ outcomes.

  17. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B

  18. Mechanisms for chemostatic behavior in catchments: implications for CO2 consumption by mineral weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clow, David W.; Mast, M. Alisa

    2010-01-01

    Concentrations of weathering products in streams often show relatively little variation compared to changes in discharge, both at event and annual scales. In this study, several hypothesized mechanisms for this “chemostatic behavior” were evaluated, and the potential for those mechanisms to influence relations between climate, weathering fluxes, and CO2 consumption via mineral weathering was assessed. Data from Loch Vale, an alpine catchment in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, indicates that cation exchange and seasonal precipitation and dissolution of amorphous or poorly crystalline aluminosilicates are important processes that help regulate solute concentrations in the stream; however, those processes have no direct effect on CO2 consumption in catchments. Hydrograph separation analyses indicate that old water stored in the subsurface over the winter accounts for about one-quarter of annual streamflow, and almost one-half of annual fluxes of Na and SiO2 in the stream; thus, flushing of old water by new water (snowmelt) is an important component of chemostatic behavior. Hydrologic flushing of subsurface materials further induces chemostatic behavior by reducing mineral saturation indices and increasing reactive mineral surface area, which stimulate mineral weathering rates. CO2 consumption by carbonic acid mediated mineral weathering was quantified using mass-balance calculations; results indicated that silicate mineral weathering was responsible for approximately two-thirds of annual CO2 consumption, and carbonate weathering was responsible for the remaining one-third. CO2 consumption was strongly dependent on annual precipitation and temperature; these relations were captured in a simple statistical model that accounted for 71% of the annual variation in CO2 consumption via mineral weathering in Loch Vale.

  19. Surveillance for foodborne disease outbreaks - United States, 1998-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, L Hannah; Walsh, Kelly A; Vieira, Antonio R; Herman, Karen; Williams, Ian T; Hall, Aron J; Cole, Dana

    2013-06-28

    Foodborne diseases cause an estimated 48 million illnesses each year in the United States, including 9.4 million caused by known pathogens. Foodborne disease outbreak surveillance provides valuable insights into the agents and foods that cause illness and the settings in which transmission occurs. CDC maintains a surveillance program for collection and periodic reporting of data on the occurrence and causes of foodborne disease outbreaks in the United States. This surveillance system is the primary source of national data describing the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths; etiologic agents; implicated foods; contributing factors; and settings of food preparation and consumption associated with recognized foodborne disease outbreaks in the United States. 1998-2008. The Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System collects data on foodborne disease outbreaks, defined as the occurrence of two or more cases of a similar illness resulting from the ingestion of a common food. Public health agencies in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, U.S. territories, and Freely Associated States have primary responsibility for identifying and investigating outbreaks and use a standard form to report outbreaks voluntarily to CDC. During 1998-2008, reporting was made through the electronic Foodborne Outbreak Reporting System (eFORS). During 1998-2008, CDC received reports of 13,405 foodborne disease outbreaks, which resulted in 273,120 reported cases of illness, 9,109 hospitalizations, and 200 deaths. Of the 7,998 outbreaks with a known etiology, 3,633 (45%) were caused by viruses, 3,613 (45%) were caused by bacteria, 685 (5%) were caused by chemical and toxic agents, and 67 (1%) were caused by parasites. Among the 7,724 (58%) outbreaks with an implicated food or contaminated ingredient reported, 3,264 (42%) could be assigned to one of 17 predefined commodity categories: fish, crustaceans, mollusks, dairy, eggs, beef, game, pork, poultry, grains/beans, oils

  20. 44 CFR 15.3 - Access to Mt. Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Access to Mt. Weather. 15.3... HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER § 15.3 Access to Mt. Weather. Mt. Weather contains classified material and areas...

  1. Changes in fire weather distributions: effects on predicted fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucy A. Salazar; Larry S. Bradshaw

    1984-01-01

    Data that represent average worst fire weather for a particular area are used to index daily fire danger; however, they do not account for different locations or diurnal weather changes that significantly affect fire behavior potential. To study the effects that selected changes in weather databases have on computed fire behavior parameters, weather data for the...

  2. Strontium stable isotope behaviour accompanying basalt weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, K. W.; Parkinson, I. J.; Gíslason, S. G. R.

    2016-12-01

    The strontium (Sr) stable isotope composition of rivers is strongly controlled by the balance of carbonate to silicate weathering (Krabbenhöft et al. 2010; Pearce et al. 2015). However, rivers draining silicate catchments possess distinctly heavier Sr stable isotope values than their bedrock compositions, pointing to significant fractionation during weathering. Some have argued for preferential release of heavy Sr from primary phases during chemical weathering, others for the formation of secondary weathering minerals that incorporate light isotopes. This study presents high-precision double-spike Sr stable isotope data for soils, rivers, ground waters and estuarine waters from Iceland, reflecting both natural weathering and societal impacts on those environments. The bedrock in Iceland is dominantly basaltic, d88/86Sr ≈ +0.27, extending to lighter values for rhyolites. Geothermal waters range from basaltic Sr stable compositions to those akin to seawater. Soil pore waters reflect a balance of input from primary mineral weathering, precipitation and litter recycling and removal into secondary phases and vegetation. Rivers and ground waters possess a wide range of d88/86Sr compositions from +0.101 to +0.858. Elemental and isotope data indicate that this fractionation primarily results from the formation or dissolution of secondary zeolite (d88/86Sr ≈ +0.10), but also carbonate (d88/86Sr ≈ +0.22) and sometimes anhydrite (d88/86Sr ≈ -0.73), driving the residual waters to heavier or lighter values, respectively. Estuarine waters largely reflect mixing with seawater, but are also be affected by adsorption onto particulates, again driving water to heavy values. Overall, these data indicate that the stability and nature of secondary weathering phases, exerts a strong control on the Sr stable isotope composition of silicate rivers. [1] Krabbenhöft et al. (2010) Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 4097-4109. [2] Pearce et al. (2015) Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 157, 125-146.

  3. Pre-outbreak forest conditions mediate the effects of spruce beetle outbreaks on fuels in subalpine forests of Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Kulakowski, Dominik; Veblen, Thomas T

    2018-03-01

    Over the past 30 years, forest disturbances have increased in size, intensity, and frequency globally, and are predicted to continue increasing due to climate change, potentially relaxing the constraints of vegetation properties on disturbance regimes. However, the consequences of the potentially declining importance of vegetation in determining future disturbance regimes are not well understood. Historically, bark beetles preferentially attack older trees and stands in later stages of development. However, as climate warming intensifies outbreaks by promoting growth of beetle populations and compromising tree defenses, smaller diameter trees and stands in early stages of development now are being affected by outbreaks. To date, no study has considered how stand age and other pre-outbreak forest conditions mediate the effects of outbreaks on surface and aerial fuel arrangements. We collected fuels data across a chronosequence of post-outbreak sites affected by spruce beetle (SB) between the 1940s and the 2010s, stratified by young (130 yr) post-fire stands. Canopy and surface fuel loads were calculated for each tree and stand, and available crown fuel load, crown bulk density, and canopy bulk densities were estimated. Canopy bulk density and density of live canopy individuals were reduced in all stands affected by SB, though foliage loss was proportionally greater in old stands as compared to young stands. Fine surface fuel loads in young stands were three times greater shortly (fuels decreased to below endemic (i.e., non-outbreak) levels. In both young and old stands, the net effect of SB outbreaks during the 20th and 21st centuries reduced total canopy fuels and increased stand-scale spatial heterogeneity of canopy fuels following outbreak. Importantly, the decrease in canopy fuels following outbreaks was greater in young post-fire stands than in older stands, suggesting that SB outbreaks may more substantially reduce risk of active crown fire when they affect

  4. Building test data from real outbreaks for evaluating detection algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Texier, Gaetan; Jackson, Michael L; Siwe, Leonel; Meynard, Jean-Baptiste; Deparis, Xavier; Chaudet, Herve

    2017-01-01

    Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method-ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler). We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor) on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1) resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak signals.

  5. Building test data from real outbreaks for evaluating detection algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetan Texier

    Full Text Available Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method-ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler. We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1 resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak

  6. Hepatitis A outbreaks in the vaccination era in Catalonia, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Ana; Broner, Sonia; Torner, Nuria; Godoy, Pere; Batalla, Joan; Alvarez, Josep; Barrabeig, Irene; Camps, Neus; Carmona, Gloria; Minguell, Sofía; Sala, Rosa; Caylà, Joan; Domínguez, Angela

    2011-01-01

    Hepatitis A outbreaks have a major impact on public health services and involve case investigation and intervention measures to susceptible contacts. At the end of 1998 a universal vaccination program with a combined hepatitis A+B vaccine was started in Catalonia (Spain) in 12-years-old preadolescents. The objective of this study was to compare the characteristics of hepatitis A outbreaks in the periods before and after the introduction of the preadolescent vaccination program and to estimate the preventable fraction of cases associated to outbreaks. The incidence rates of outbreaks, cases and hospitalization associated with each outbreak were calculated. Two periods were considered: before (1991-1998) and after (2000-2007) the introduction of mass vaccination. The preventable fraction and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of cases associated with outbreaks was calculated. The rate of associated cases with outbreaks was higher in the period before the vaccination program than in the post vaccination period (1.53 per 100,000 person-year vs 1.12 ; pcases associated to outbreaks was 19.6%(95%CI 6.7-32.5) in the 0-4 years group and 16.7% (95% CI 6.0-27.5) in the 5-14 years group, but the highest figure (38.6%; 95%CI 21.3-55.9) was observed in the 15-24 years age group. The estimated proportion of cases associated with outbreaks that would theoretically have been prevented with the vaccination program suggests that substantial benefits have been obtained in Catalonia in people aged less than 25 years.

  7. [Norovirus outbreaks in hospitals and nursing homes in Catalonia, Spain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoy, Pere; Domínguez, Angela; Alvarez, Josep; Camps, Neus; Barrabeig, Irene; Bartolomé, Rosa; Sala, María Rosa; Ferre, Dolors; Pañella, Helena; Torres, Joan; Minguell, Sofía; Alsedà, Miquel; Pumares, Analía

    2009-01-01

    The low infectious dose and multiple transmission routes favour the appearance of norovirus outbreaks. The objective of this study was to compare the incidence of norovirus outbreaks in hospitals and nursing homes in Catalonia. A descriptive study of norovirus outbreaks between 15/10/2004 and 30/10/2005 was carried out. An epidemiological survey was completed for each outbreak. Norovirus in clinical samples was determined by PCR techniques. The incidence in each centre and the annual incidence of outbreaks by centre were calculated. Differences were calculated using the chi-square test and the Student's t test, taking a p value of > 0.05 as significant. Seventeen outbreaks (6 in hospitals and 11 in nursing homes) were detected. The global attack rate was 33.4% (652/1951) and was slightly higher in nursing homes (35.2%) than in hospitals (31.4%). A total of 94.1% (16/17) of outbreaks were caused by person-to-person transmission and only 5.9% (1/17) by foods. The mean number of days between the first and last case was 11.4 (SD = 6.9). The mean duration of symptoms was 2.39 days (SD=1.6), and was higher hospitals, 2.63 (SD=1.7), than in nursing homes, 1.97 (SD=1.7) (p < 0.0001). Norovirus is responsible for a large number of outbreaks due to person-to-person transmission. Control should be standardized to reduce the number and duration of outbreaks.

  8. A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Ana Freitas; Tengan, Ciléa; Sato, Helena Keico; Spinola, Roberta; Mascheretti, Melissa; França, Ana Cecilia Costa; Port-Carvalho, Marcio; Pereira, Mariza; Souza, Renato Pereira de; Amaku, Marcos; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-04-01

    We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

  9. A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Freitas Ribeiro

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP, Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

  10. Using Artificial Intelligence to Inform Pilots of Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.

    2006-01-01

    An automated system to assist a General Aviation (GA) pilot in improving situational awareness of weather in flight is now undergoing development. This development is prompted by the observation that most fatal GA accidents are attributable to loss of weather awareness. Loss of weather awareness, in turn, has been attributed to the difficulty of interpreting traditional preflight weather briefings and the difficulty of both obtaining and interpreting traditional in-flight weather briefings. The developmental automated system not only improves weather awareness but also substantially reduces the time a pilot must spend in acquiring and maintaining weather awareness.

  11. Measles outbreak investigation in Guji zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belda, Ketema; Tegegne, Ayesheshem Ademe; Mersha, Amare Mengistu; Bayenessagne, Mekonnen Getahun; Hussein, Ibrahim; Bezabeh, Belay

    2017-01-01

    Despite the increase of immunization coverage (administrative) of measles in the country, there are widespread outbreaks of measles. In this respect, we investigated one of the outbreaks that occurred in hard to reach kebeles of Guji Zone, Oromia region, to identify the contributing factors that lead to the protracted outbreak of measles. We used a cross-sectional study design to investigate a measles outbreak in Guji zone, Oromia region. Data entry and analysis was performed using EPI-Info version 7.1.0.6 and MS-Microsoft Excel. In three months' time a total of 1059 suspected cases and two deaths were reported from 9 woredas affected by a measles outbreak in Guji zone. The cumulative attack rate of 81/100,000 population and case fatality ratio of 0.2% was recorded. Of these, 821 (77.5%) cases were measles vaccine. Although, all age groups were affected under five years old were more affected 495 (48%) than any other age groups. In response to the outbreak, an outbreak response immunization was organized at the 11th week of the epidemic, when the epidemic curve started to decline. 6 months to14 years old were targeted for outbreak response immunization and the overall coverage was 97 % (range: 90-103%). Case management with vitamin A supplementation, active case search, and health education was some of the activities carried out to curb the outbreak. We conclude that low routine immunization coverage in conjunction with low access to routine immunization in hard to reach areas, low community awareness in utilization of immunization service, inadequate cold chain management and delivery of a potent vaccine in hard to reach woredas/kebeles were likely contributed to the outbreak that's triggered a broad spread epidemic affecting mostly children without any vaccination. We also figured that the case-based surveillance lacks sensitivity and timely confirmation of the outbreak, which as a result outbreak response immunization were delayed. We recommend establishing

  12. Crisis prevention and management during SARS outbreak, Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quah, Stella R; Hin-Peng, Lee

    2004-02-01

    We discuss crisis prevention and management during the first 3 months of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Singapore. Four public health issues were considered: prevention measures, self-health evaluation, SARS knowledge, and appraisal of crisis management. We conducted telephone interviews with a representative sample of 1,201 adults, > or = 21 years of age. We found that sex, age, and attitude (anxiety and perception of open communication with authorities) were associated with practicing preventive measures. Analysis of Singapore's outbreak improves our understanding of the social dimensions of infectious disease outbreaks.

  13. Weatherization and Indoor Air Quality: Measured Impacts in Single Family Homes Under the Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pigg, Scott [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Cautley, Dan [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Francisco, Paul [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Hawkins, Beth A [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Brennan, Terry M [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2014-09-01

    This report summarizes findings from a national field study of indoor air quality parameters in homes treated under the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). The study involved testing and monitoring in 514 single-family homes (including mobile homes) located in 35 states and served by 88 local weatherization agencies.

  14. WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

    2012-01-01

    A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

  15. Artificial weathering of oils by rotary evaporator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fieldhouse, B.; Hollebone, B.P.; Singh, N.R.; Tong, T.S.; Mullin, J.

    2009-01-01

    Oil weathering has a considerable affect on the behaviour, impact and ultimate fate of an oil spill. As such, efforts have been made to study weathering as a whole using bench-scale procedures. The studies are generally divided into individual processes where the effect of other major processes are introduce as an amended sample input rather than a concurrent process. The weathering process that has the greatest effect immediately following an oil spill is evaporation, particularly for lighter oils. The rotary evaporator apparatus offers a convenient means of producing artificially weathered oil for laboratory studies. This paper reported on a study that examined the representativeness of samples obtained by this method compared to pan evaporation and the impact of changes to the apparatus or method parameters on sample chemistry. Experiments were performed on Alberta Sweet Mixed Blend no. 5 in a rotary evaporator under varying conditions of temperature and air flow at ambient pressure using 2 apparatus. The rate of mass loss increased with temperature and air flow rate as expected, but the quantitative relationships could not be defined from the data due to contributions by other uncontrolled factors. It was concluded that the rotary evaporator is not suited for evaporation rate studies, but rather for producing samples suitable for use in other studies. Chemical analysis showed that the relative abundance distributions of target n-alkane hydrocarbons varied with the degree of weathering of an oil in a consistent manner at ambient pressure, regardless of the temperature, rate of air exchange or other factors related to the apparatus and procedure. The composition of the artificially weathered oil was also consistent with that from an open pan simulation of a weathered oil slick. Loss of water content varied with the conditions of evaporation because of the differential rates of evaporation due to relative humidity considerations. It was concluded that weathering

  16. Training Early Career Space Weather Researchers and other Space Weather Professionals at the CISM Space Weather Summer School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.

    2011-12-01

    This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.

  17. Direct radiative effects during intense Mediterranean desert dust outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gkikas

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The direct radiative effect (DRE during 20 intense and widespread dust outbreaks, which affected the broader Mediterranean basin over the period March 2000–February 2013, has been calculated with the NMMB-MONARCH model at regional (Sahara and European continent and short-term temporal (84 h scales. According to model simulations, the maximum dust aerosol optical depths (AODs range from  ∼  2.5 to  ∼  5.5 among the identified cases. At midday, dust outbreaks locally induce a NET (shortwave plus longwave strong atmospheric warming (DREATM values up to 285 W m−2; Niger–Chad; dust AODs up to  ∼  5.5 and a strong surface cooling (DRENETSURF values down to −337 W m−2, whereas they strongly reduce the downward radiation at the ground level (DRESURF values down to −589 W m−2 over the Eastern Mediterranean, for extremely high dust AODs, 4.5–5. During night-time, reverse effects of smaller magnitude are found. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA, positive (planetary warming DREs up to 85 W m−2 are found over highly reflective surfaces (Niger–Chad; dust AODs up to  ∼  5.5 while negative (planetary cooling DREs down to −184 W m−2 (Eastern Mediterranean; dust AODs 4.5–5 are computed over dark surfaces at noon. Dust outbreaks significantly affect the mean regional radiation budget, with NET DREs ranging from −8.5 to 0.5 W m−2, from −31.6 to 2.1 W m−2, from −22.2 to 2.2 W m−2 and from −1.7 to 20.4 W m−2 for TOA, SURF, NETSURF and ATM, respectively. Although the shortwave DREs are larger than the longwave ones, the latter are comparable or even larger at TOA, particularly over the Sahara at midday. As a response to the strong surface day-time cooling, dust outbreaks cause a reduction in the regional sensible and latent heat fluxes by up to 45 and 4 W m−2, respectively, averaged over land areas of the simulation domain. Dust outbreaks reduce the

  18. Iron isotopic fractionation during continental weathering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fantle, Matthew S.; DePaolo, Donald J.

    2003-10-01

    The biological activity on continents and the oxygen content of the atmosphere determine the chemical pathways through which Fe is processed at the Earth's surface. Experiments have shown that the relevant chemical pathways fractionate Fe isotopes. Measurements of soils, streams, and deep-sea clay indicate that the {sup 56}Fe/{sup 54}Fe ratio ({delta}{sup 56}Fe relative to igneous rocks) varies from +1{per_thousand} for weathering residues like soils and clays, to -3{per_thousand} for dissolved Fe in streams. These measurements confirm that weathering processes produce substantial fractionation of Fe isotopes in the modern oxidizing Earth surface environment. The results imply that biologically-mediated processes, which preferentially mobilize light Fe isotopes, are critical to Fe chemistry in weathering environments, and that the {delta}{sup 56}Fe of marine dissolved Fe should be variable and negative. Diagenetic reduction of Fe in marine sediments may also be a significant component of the global Fe isotope cycle. Iron isotopes provide a tracer for the influence of biological activity and oxygen in weathering processes through Earth history. Iron isotopic fractionation during weathering may have been smaller or absent in an oxygen-poor environment such as that of the early Precambrian Earth.

  19. Solar EUV irradiance for space weather applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viereck, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    Solar EUV irradiance is an important driver of space weather models. Large changes in EUV and x-ray irradiances create large variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere. Proxies such as the F10.7 cm radio flux, have provided reasonable estimates of the EUV flux but as the space weather models become more accurate and the demands of the customers become more stringent, proxies are no longer adequate. Furthermore, proxies are often provided only on a daily basis and shorter time scales are becoming important. Also, there is a growing need for multi-day forecasts of solar EUV irradiance to drive space weather forecast models. In this presentation we will describe the needs and requirements for solar EUV irradiance information from the space weather modeler's perspective. We will then translate these requirements into solar observational requirements such as spectral resolution and irradiance accuracy. We will also describe the activities at NOAA to provide long-term solar EUV irradiance observations and derived products that are needed for real-time space weather modeling.

  20. Space Weather: Where Is The Beef?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koskinen, H. E. J.

    Space weather has become a highly fashionable topic in solar-terrestrial physics. It is perhaps the best tool to popularise the field and it has contributed significantly to the dialogue between solar, magnetospheric, and ionospheric scientist, and also to mu- tual understanding between science and engineering communities. While these are laudable achievements, it is important for the integrity of scientific space weather re- search to recognise the central open questions in the physics of space weather and the progress toward solving them. We still lack sufficient understanding of the solar physics to be able to tell in advance when and where a solar eruption will take place and whether it will turn to a geoeffective event. There is much to do to understand ac- celeration of solar energetic particles and propagation of solar mass ejecta toward the Earth. After more than 40 years of research scientific discussion of energy and plasma transfer through the magnetopause still deals mostly with qualitative issues and the rapid acceleration processes in the magnetosphere are not yet explained in a satisfac- tory way. Also the coupling to the ionosphere and from there to the strong induction effects on ground is another complex of research problems. For space weather science the beef is in the investigation of these and related topics, not in marketing half-useful space weather products to hesitant customers.

  1. Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardegree, Stuart P.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Brunson, Mark W.; Germino, Matthew; Hegewisch, Katherine C.; Moffet, Corey A.; Pilliod, David S.; Roundy, Bruce A.; Boehm, Alex R.; Meredith, Gwendwr R.

    2018-01-01

    Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.

  2. Space Weather Outreach: Connection to STEM Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dusenbery, P. B.

    2008-12-01

    Many scientists are studying the Sun-Earth system and attempting to provide timely, accurate, and reliable space environment observations and forecasts. Research programs and missions serve as an ideal focal point for creating educational content, making this an ideal time to inform the public about the importance and value of space weather research. In order to take advantage of this opportunity, the Space Science Institute (SSI) is developing a comprehensive Space Weather Outreach program to reach students, educators, and other members of the public, and share with them the exciting discoveries from this important scientific discipline. The Space Weather Outreach program has the following five components: (1) the Space Weather Center Website that includes online educational games; (2) Small Exhibits for Libraries, Shopping Malls, and Science Centers; (3) After-School Programs; (4) Professional Development Workshops for Educators, and (5) an innovative Evaluation and Education Research project. Its overarching goal is to inspire, engage, and educate a broad spectrum of the public and make strategic and innovative connections between informal and K-12 education communities. An important factor in the success of this program will be its alignment with STEM standards especially those related to science and mathematics. This presentation will describe the Space Weather Outreach program and how standards are being used in the development of each of its components.

  3. Measuring weather for aviation safety in the 1980's

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedan, R. W.

    1980-01-01

    Requirements for an improved aviation weather system are defined and specifically include the need for (1) weather observations at all airports with instrument approaches, (2) more accurate and timely radar detection of weather elements hazardous to aviation, and (3) better methods of timely distribution of both pilot reports and ground weather data. The development of the discrete address beacon system data link, Doppler weather radar network, and various information processing techniques are described.

  4. Dynamic Weather Routes: A Weather Avoidance Concept for Trajectory-Based Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, B. David; Love, John

    2011-01-01

    The integration of convective weather modeling with trajectory automation for conflict detection, trial planning, direct routing, and auto resolution has uncovered a concept that could help controllers, dispatchers, and pilots identify improved weather routes that result in significant savings in flying time and fuel burn. Trajectory automation continuously and automatically monitors aircraft in flight to find those that could potentially benefit from improved weather reroutes. Controllers, dispatchers, and pilots then evaluate reroute options to assess their suitability given current weather and traffic. In today's operations aircraft fly convective weather avoidance routes that were implemented often hours before aircraft approach the weather and automation does not exist to automatically monitor traffic to find improved weather routes that open up due to changing weather conditions. The automation concept runs in real-time and employs two keysteps. First, a direct routing algorithm automatically identifies flights with large dog legs in their routes and therefore potentially large savings in flying time. These are common - and usually necessary - during convective weather operations and analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic shows many aircraft with short cuts that indicate savings on the order of 10 flying minutes. The second and most critical step is to apply trajectory automation with weather modeling to determine what savings could be achieved by modifying the direct route such that it avoids weather and traffic and is acceptable to controllers and flight crews. Initial analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic suggests a savings of roughly 50% of the direct route savings could be achievable.The core concept is to apply trajectory automation with convective weather modeling in real time to identify a reroute that is free of weather and traffic conflicts and indicates enough time and fuel savings to be considered. The concept is interoperable with today

  5. Descriptive Study of an Outbreak of Avian Urolithiasis in a Large Commercial Egg Complex in Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hicham SID

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Avian urolithiasis is one of the major causes of mortality in poultry. However, in Algeria this condition has never been described. An outbreak of avian urolithiasis was observed on a large commercial egg complex in the department of Chlef (West of Algeria. The clinical features of this condition are to be described. Mortality associated to urolithiasis started at the onset of egg production, estimated to 0.7 % per week. Urolithiasis induced an egg drop estimated to 12%. Dead and live layers were both necropsied and examined for kidney lesions. Most of the birds examined presented enlarged ureters, renal atrophy and visceral gout deposition.

  6. Cost of a measles outbreak in a remote island economy: 2014 Federated States of Micronesia measles outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Jamison; Tippins, Ashley; Nyaku, Mawuli; Eckert, Maribeth; Helgenberger, Louisa; Underwood, J Michael

    2017-10-13

    After 20years with no reported measles cases, on May 15, 2014 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was notified of two cases testing positive for measles-specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). Under the Compact of Free Association, FSM receives immunization funding and technical support from the United States (US) domestic vaccination program managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In a collaborative effort, public health officials and volunteers from FSM and the US government worked to respond and contain the measles outbreak through an emergency mass vaccination campaign, contact tracing, and other outbreak investigation activities. Contributions were also made by United Nations Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) and World Health Organization (WHO). Total costs incurred as a result of the outbreak were nearly $4,000,000; approximately $10,000 per case. Direct medical costs (≈$141,000) were incurred in the treatment of those individuals infected, as well as lost productivity of the infected and informal caregivers (≈$250,000) and costs to contain the outbreak (≈$3.5 million). We assessed the economic burden of the 2014 measles outbreak to FSM, as well as the economic responsibilities of the US. Although the US paid the majority of total costs of the outbreak (≈67%), examining each country's costs relative to their respective economy illustrates a far greater burden to FSM. We demonstrate that while FSM was heavily assisted by the US in responding to the 2014 Measles Outbreak, the outbreak significantly impacted their economy. FSM's economic burden from the outbreak is approximately equivalent to their entire 2016 Fiscal Year budget dedicated to education. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Epidemiology of restaurant-associated foodborne disease outbreaks, United States, 1998-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelo, K M; Nisler, A L; Hall, A J; Brown, L G; Gould, L H

    2017-02-01

    Although contamination of food can occur at any point from farm to table, restaurant food workers are a common source of foodborne illness. We describe the characteristics of restaurant-associated foodborne disease outbreaks and explore the role of food workers by analysing outbreaks associated with restaurants from 1998 to 2013 reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System. We identified 9788 restaurant-associated outbreaks. The median annual number of outbreaks was 620 (interquartile range 618-629). In 3072 outbreaks with a single confirmed aetiology reported, norovirus caused the largest number of outbreaks (1425, 46%). Of outbreaks with a single food reported and a confirmed aetiology, fish (254 outbreaks, 34%) was most commonly implicated, and these outbreaks were commonly caused by scombroid toxin (219 outbreaks, 86% of fish outbreaks). Most outbreaks (79%) occurred at sit-down establishments. The most commonly reported contributing factors were those related to food handling and preparation practices in the restaurant (2955 outbreaks, 61%). Food workers contributed to 2415 (25%) outbreaks. Knowledge of the foods, aetiologies, and contributing factors that result in foodborne disease restaurant outbreaks can help guide efforts to prevent foodborne illness.

  8. Space Weather Research Towards Applications in Europe

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean

    2007-01-01

    This book shows the state of the art in Europe on a very new discipline, Space Weather. This discipline lies at the edge between science and industry. This book reflects such a position, with theoretic papers and applicative papers as well. It is divided into 5 chapters. Each chapter starts with a short introduction, which shows the coherence of a given domain. Then, 4 to 5 contributions written by the best specialists in Europe give detailed hints of a hot topic in space weather. From the reading of this book, it becomes evident that space weather is a living discipline, full of promises and already full of amazing realizations. The strength of Europe is clear through the book, but it is also clear that this discipline is world wide.

  9. The impact of weather on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulman, F G

    1984-01-01

    The impact of weather on human health is a well-known fact, yet, alas, neglected in the past. Bioclimatology, a vast field of medical knowledge, has only been developed in the past few years. It shows that the air we breathe has a profound influence on our well-being. Electrical charges of the air, such as ions, spherics and electrofields can affect our endocrine, vegetative and autonomous nerve system. It may even be responsible for post-operative thromboembolism. The present article describes weather reactions, electric radiations, climate rhythm, medical aspects of weather changes, and their effect on health and disease. Special devotion is also given to the manifestations of evil winds.

  10. Effect of weather on football attendances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cairns, J A

    1984-01-01

    On the premise that weather should have an effect on spectator attendance at sports events in outdoor settings (a topic which has received surprisingly little formalized study), the author examined the record of home attendances for three football teams in Scotland. In general, it was found that the greater the rainfall on the day of the match the lower the attendance. Dividing spectators into different groups, it was further found that an additional hour of sunshine was associated 162 more adults attending Aberdeen matches, while high temperatures appeared to increase juvenile attendance (by 57 for ever 1 deg. C. rise in temperature). Weather disruption of football games is attended by a number of costs, both direct and indirect. Quantifying the impact of weather can shed substantial light on the problem of scheduling for the season. For example, since certain periods are, on average, wetter than others, rescheduling to drier periods might encourage greater attendance.

  11. Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäkinen, H; Kaseva, J; Trnka, M

    2018-01-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme...... weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21° to 61.34° and longitudes −6.02° to 26.24°) during the period 1991–2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (≥31 °C...... wheat cultivars that responded positively (+10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (−15 °C and −20 °C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently...

  12. SWIFF: Space weather integrated forecasting framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederiksen Jacob Trier

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available SWIFF is a project funded by the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Commission to study the mathematical-physics models that form the basis for space weather forecasting. The phenomena of space weather span a tremendous scale of densities and temperature with scales ranging 10 orders of magnitude in space and time. Additionally even in local regions there are concurrent processes developing at the electron, ion and global scales strongly interacting with each other. The fundamental challenge in modelling space weather is the need to address multiple physics and multiple scales. Here we present our approach to take existing expertise in fluid and kinetic models to produce an integrated mathematical approach and software infrastructure that allows fluid and kinetic processes to be modelled together. SWIFF aims also at using this new infrastructure to model specific coupled processes at the Solar Corona, in the interplanetary space and in the interaction at the Earth magnetosphere.

  13. Activities of NICT space weather project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

    NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

  14. Healthy Housing Opportunities During Weatherization Work

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, J.; Tohn, E.

    2011-03-01

    In the summer and early fall of 2010, the National Center for Healthy Housing interviewed people from a selection of state and local agencies that perform weatherizations on low-income housing in order to gauge their approach to improving the health and safety of the homes. The interviews provided a strong cross section of what work agencies can do, and how they go about funding this work when funds from the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) do not cover the full extent of the repairs. The report also makes recommendations for WAP in how to assist agencies to streamline and maximize the health and safety repairs they are able to make in the course of a standard weatherization.

  15. Optimized Strategies for Detecting Extrasolar Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallinan, Gregg

    2018-06-01

    Fully understanding the implications of space weather for the young solar system, as well as the wider population of planet-hosting stars, requires remote sensing of space weather in other stellar systems. Solar coronal mass ejections can be accompanied by bright radio bursts at low frequencies (typically measurement of the magnetic field strength of the planet, informing on whether the atmosphere of the planet can survive the intense magnetic activity of its host star. However, both stellar and planetary radio emission are highly variable and optimal strategies for detection of these emissions requires the capability to monitor 1000s of nearby stellar/planetary systems simultaneously. I will discuss optimized strategies for both ground and space-based experiments to take advantage of the highly variable nature of the radio emissions powered by extrasolar space weather to enable detection of stellar CMEs and planetary magnetospheres.

  16. A coronagraph for operational space weather predication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Kevin F.

    2017-09-01

    Accurate prediction of the arrival of solar wind phenomena, in particular coronal mass ejections (CMEs), at Earth, and possibly elsewhere in the heliosphere, is becoming increasingly important given our ever-increasing reliance on technology. The potentially severe impact on human technological systems of such phenomena is termed space weather. A coronagraph is arguably the instrument that provides the earliest definitive evidence of CME eruption; from a vantage point on or near the Sun-Earth line, a coronagraph can provide near-definitive identification of an Earth-bound CME. Currently, prediction of CME arrival is critically dependent on ageing science coronagraphs whose design and operation were not optimized for space weather services. We describe the early stages of the conceptual design of SCOPE (the Solar Coronagraph for OPErations), optimized to support operational space weather services.

  17. Quantitative impact of aerosols on numerical weather prediction. Part II: Impacts to IR radiance assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquis, J. W.; Campbell, J. R.; Oyola, M. I.; Ruston, B. C.; Zhang, J.

    2017-12-01

    This is part II of a two-part series examining the impacts of aerosol particles on weather forecasts. In this study, the aerosol indirect effects on weather forecasts are explored by examining the temperature and moisture analysis associated with assimilating dust contaminated hyperspectral infrared radiances. The dust induced temperature and moisture biases are quantified for different aerosol vertical distribution and loading scenarios. The overall impacts of dust contamination on temperature and moisture forecasts are quantified over the west coast of Africa, with the assistance of aerosol retrievals from AERONET, MPL, and CALIOP. At last, methods for improving hyperspectral infrared data assimilation in dust contaminated regions are proposed.

  18. Natural weathering of archaeo-metallurgical slags: an analog for present day vitrified wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahe-le-Carlier, C.

    2000-01-01

    The study of the natural alteration of ancient vitreous slags (100 to 4000 years) suggests a single global mechanism. In a first stage, weathering consists of a selective extraction of the modifier cations of glass (including Pb and Ba). This phenomenon is associated with an increase of the solution pH, inducing the glass dissolution (Al, Fe). Pb and Ba are extracted from weathered glass. Pb is located in Fe-hydroxides, Ba may form sulfides. The rate of alteration varies from 20 to 180 μm per 1000 years. (authors)

  19. An Outbreak of Sheep Pox in Zabajkalskij kray of Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksyutov, R A; Gavrilova, E V; Agafonov, A P; Taranov, O S; Glotov, A G; Miheev, V N; Shchelkunov, S N; Sergeev, A N

    2015-08-01

    In this study, we investigated recent sheep pox outbreaks that occurred in Ononsky and Borzunsky regions of Zabajkalskij kray of Russia. The outbreaks involved in 2756 animals of which 112 were infected and 3 were slaughtered. Samples of injured skin of infected sheep were analysed by electron microscopy and CaPV-specific P32 gene amplification. Following sequence analysis of entire P32 gene showed that both specimens were identical to the sequence of several sheep poxvirus isolates from China and India. The close location of China to the last decade's Russian outbreaks suggest that possible future outbreaks in Russia could occur along the border regions with countries where sheep and goat pox are not controlled. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  20. Mitigating measles outbreaks in West Africa post-Ebola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truelove, Shaun A; Moss, William J; Lessler, Justin

    2015-01-01

    The Ebola outbreak in 2014-2015 devastated the populations, economies and healthcare systems of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. With this devastation comes the impending threat of outbreaks of other infectious diseases like measles. Strategies for mitigating these risks must include both prevention, through vaccination, and case detection and management, focused on surveillance, diagnosis and appropriate clinical care and case management. With the high transmissibility of measles virus, small-scale reactive vaccinations will be essential to extinguish focal outbreaks, while national vaccination campaigns are needed to guarantee vaccination coverage targets are reached in the long term. Rapid and multifaceted strategies should carefully navigate challenges present in the wake of Ebola, while also taking advantage of current Ebola-related activities and international attention. Above all, resources and focus currently aimed at these countries must be utilized to build up the deficit in infrastructure and healthcare systems that contributed to the extent of the Ebola outbreak.

  1. Biosecurity and Biodefense: Lessons from Ebola Virus Outbreak

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Lebea, Phiyani J

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available , should a contagious outbreak be suspected. Such a policy would be adopted by regional member states since diseases such as Ebola respect no national boundaries. Secondly, research infrastructure including BSL 4 laboratories that address research on animal...

  2. Successful Multi-partner Response to a Cholera Outbreak

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    46987.2

    World Health Organisation,. Country Office ... a global threat to public health and a key indicator of inadequate .... While the cholera outbreak in Lusaka was first reported in. Kanyama ... restaurants, markets, schools and other public places of.

  3. ORIGINAL ARTICLES Outbreak of Rift Valley fever affecting ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    and veterinarians are at an increased risk of infection.4,6-8 No human- to-human transmission has been ... Outbreak Response Unit, National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) of the National Health .... Notification & initial interviews.

  4. An isolated outbreak of diphtheria in South Africa, 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahomed, S; Archary, M; Mutevedzi, P; Mahabeer, Y; Govender, P; Ntshoe, G; Kuhn, W; Thomas, J; Olowolagba, A; Blumberg, L; McCarthy, K; Mlisana, K; DU Plessis, M; VON Gottberg, A; Moodley, P

    2017-07-01

    An outbreak of respiratory diphtheria occurred in two health districts in the province of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa in 2015. A multidisciplinary outbreak response team was involved in the investigation and management of the outbreak. Fifteen cases of diphtheria were identified, with ages ranging from 4 to 41 years. Of the 12 cases that were under the age of 18 years, 9 (75%) were not fully immunized for diphtheria. The case fatality was 27%. Ninety-three household contacts, 981 school or work contacts and 595 healthcare worker contacts were identified and given prophylaxis against Corynebacterium diphtheriae infection. A targeted vaccination campaign for children aged 6-15 years was carried out at schools in the two districts. The outbreak highlighted the need to improve diphtheria vaccination coverage in the province and to investigate the feasibility of offering diphtheria vaccines to healthcare workers.

  5. Ebola Viral Hemorrhagic Disease Outbreak in West Africa- Lessons ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... to contain the Ebola epidemic. Key words: Ebola, viral hemorrhagic fever, West Africa, lessons, Uganda .... the corresponding surveillance systems for detecting priority diseases. ... A major outbreak of Yellow Fe- ver was reported in five ...

  6. Control Measures Used during Lymphogranuloma Venereum Outbreak, Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulscher, Marlies E.J.L.; Vos, Dieuwke; van de Laar, Marita J.W.; Fenton, Kevin A.; van Steenbergen, Jim E.; van der Meer, Jos W.M.; Grol, Richard P.T.M.

    2008-01-01

    To assess the response to the reemergence of lymphogranuloma venereum, we conducted a cross-sectional survey by administering a structured questionnaire to representatives from 26 European countries. Responses were received from 18 countries. The ability to respond quickly and the measures used for outbreak detection and control varied. Evidence-based criteria were not consistently used to develop recommendations. We did not develop criteria to determine the effectiveness of the recommendations. The degree of preparedness for an unexpected outbreak, as well as the ability of countries to respond quickly to alerts, varied, which indicates weaknesses in the ability to control an outbreak. More guidance is needed to implement and evaluate control measures used during international outbreaks. PMID:18394274

  7. LOCAL WEATHER CLASSIFICATIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL APPLICATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna PIOTROWICZ

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Two approaches of local weather type definitions are presented and illustrated for selected stations of Poland and Hungary. The subjective classification, continuing long traditions, especially in Poland, relies on diurnal values of local weather elements. The main types are defined according to temperature with some sub-types considering relative sunshine duration, diurnal precipitation totals, relative humidity and wind speed. The classification does not make a difference between the seasons of the year, but the occurrence of the classes obviously reflects the annual cycle. Another important feature of this classification is that only a minor part of the theoretically possible combination of the various types and sub-types occurs in all stations of both countries. The objective version of the classification starts from ten possible weather element which are reduced to four according to factor analysis, based on strong correlation between the elements. This analysis yields 3 to 4 factors depending on the specific criteria of selection. The further cluster analysis uses four selected weather elements belonging to different rotated factors. They are the diurnal mean values of temperature, of relative humidity, of cloudiness and of wind speed. From the possible ways of hierarchical cluster analysis (i.e. no a priori assumption on the number of classes, the method of furthest neighbours is selected, indicating the arguments of this decision in the paper. These local weather types are important tools in understanding the role of weather in various environmental indicators, in climatic generalisation of short samples by stratified sampling and in interpretation of the climate change.

  8. An introduction to Space Weather Integrated Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, D.; Feng, X.

    2012-12-01

    The need for a software toolkit that integrates space weather models and data is one of many challenges we are facing with when applying the models to space weather forecasting. To meet this challenge, we have developed Space Weather Integrated Modeling (SWIM) that is capable of analysis and visualizations of the results from a diverse set of space weather models. SWIM has a modular design and is written in Python, by using NumPy, matplotlib, and the Visualization ToolKit (VTK). SWIM provides data management module to read a variety of spacecraft data products and a specific data format of Solar-Interplanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element MHD model (SIP-CESE MHD model) for the study of solar-terrestrial phenomena. Data analysis, visualization and graphic user interface modules are also presented in a user-friendly way to run the integrated models and visualize the 2-D and 3-D data sets interactively. With these tools we can locally or remotely analysis the model result rapidly, such as extraction of data on specific location in time-sequence data sets, plotting interplanetary magnetic field lines, multi-slicing of solar wind speed, volume rendering of solar wind density, animation of time-sequence data sets, comparing between model result and observational data. To speed-up the analysis, an in-situ visualization interface is used to support visualizing the data 'on-the-fly'. We also modified some critical time-consuming analysis and visualization methods with the aid of GPU and multi-core CPU. We have used this tool to visualize the data of SIP-CESE MHD model in real time, and integrated the Database Model of shock arrival, Shock Propagation Model, Dst forecasting model and SIP-CESE MHD model developed by SIGMA Weather Group at State Key Laboratory of Space Weather/CAS.

  9. Introducing the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, R. D.

    2015-12-01

    The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations beginning in 1980 called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded datasets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC=1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously-identified in MERRA's precipitation and reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED is being used by researchers around the world for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at large scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere-ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models. These applications will be discussed. More information on GFWED can be found at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/impacts/gfwed/

  10. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Ebola Virus Disease 2013-2014 Outbreak in West Africa: An Analysis of the Epidemic Spread and Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Cenciarelli

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Ebola virus epidemic burst in West Africa in late 2013, started in Guinea, reached in a few months an alarming diffusion, actually involving several countries (Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal, and Mali. Guinea and Liberia, the first nations affected by the outbreak, have put in place measures to contain the spread, supported by international organizations; then they were followed by the other nations affected. In the present EVD outbreak, the geographical spread of the virus has followed a new route: the achievement of large urban areas at an early stage of the epidemic has led to an unprecedented diffusion, featuring the largest outbreak of EVD of all time. This has caused significant concerns all over the world: the potential reaching of far countries from endemic areas, mainly through fast transports, induced several countries to issue information documents and health supervision for individuals going to or coming from the areas at risk. In this paper the geographical spread of the epidemic was analyzed, assessing the sequential appearance of cases by geographic area, considering the increase in cases and mortality according to affected nations. The measures implemented by each government and international organizations to contain the outbreak, and their effectiveness, were also evaluated.

  12. Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

    2014-09-01

    Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.

  13. Space weather impact on radio device operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berngardt O.I.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the space weather impact on operation of radio devices. The review is based on recently published papers, books, and strategic scientific plans of space weather investigations. The main attention is paid to ionospheric effects on propagation of radiowaves, basically short ones. Some examples of such effects are based on 2012–2016 ISTP SB RAS EKB radar data: attenuation of ground backscatter signals during solar flares, effects of traveling ionospheric disturbances of different scales in ground backscatter signals, effects of magnetospheric waves in ionospheric scatter signals.

  14. Estuary wader capacity following severe weather mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.A.; Baillie, S.R.; Clark, N.A.; Langston, R.H.W.

    1993-01-01

    The building of a tidal power barrage across an estuary may lead to substantial changes in its ecology. Many of Britain's estuaries hold internationally important numbers of waders. Careful consideration, therefore, needs to be given to the likely effects of tidal power barrages on wader populations. The opportunity for increased understanding of the mechanisms which govern wader populations was provided by a period of severe winter weather in 1991, which resulted in a substantial mortality of waders in eastern England. Such conditions are known to be stressful to birds and the study objectives were to investigate both the effects of and recovery from severe weather. (author)

  15. Space weather impact on radio device operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berngardt, Oleg

    2017-09-01

    This paper reviews the space weather impact on operation of radio devices. The review is based on recently published papers, books, and strategic scientific plans of space weather investigations. The main attention is paid to ionospheric effects on propagation of radiowaves, basically short ones. Some examples of such effects are based on 2012–2016 ISTP SB RAS EKB radar data: attenuation of ground backscatter signals during solar flares, effects of traveling ionospheric disturbances of different scales in ground backscatter signals, effects of magnetospheric waves in ionospheric scatter signals.

  16. Rapid weather information dissemination in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Heinemann, P. H.; Gerber, J. F.; Crosby, F. L.; Smith, D. L.

    1984-01-01

    The development of the Florida Agricultural Services and Technology (FAST) plan to provide ports for users to call for weather information is described. FAST is based on the Satellite Frost Forecast System, which makes a broad base of weather data available to its users. The methods used for acquisition and dissemination of data from various networks under the FAST plan are examined. The system provides color coded IR or thermal maps, precipitation maps, and textural forecast information. A diagram of the system is provided.

  17. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

    2014-05-01

    Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

  18. Investigation of possible sun-weather relationships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Businger, S.

    1978-01-01

    Statistical correlations between anomalous solar activity (as denoted by large solar flares, active plages, and interplanetary magnetic sector boundaries) and the circulation of the troposphere are reviewed. Two indices (measuring atmospheric vorticity and mean zonal geostrophic flow in the northern hemisphere) are analyzed in an effort to reveal possible sun-weather relationships. The result of this analysis provides no additional statistical evidence for a connection between solar activity and the weather. Finally, physical mechanisms that have been suggested to explain the claimed correlations are discussed

  19. Statistical Analysis of Asian WeatherDerivatives

    OpenAIRE

    Jiao, Yue

    2009-01-01

    Since last decade, weather derivatives have been traded by Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME) to hedge the weather risk. In addition to HDD,CDD and CAT, which are index written on the temperature in U.S. and Europe, Pacific Rim Index is newly developed and actively traded nowadays. In terms of the great value of research on this new instrument, we study the temperature dynamics of 4 cities in Asia: Tokyo, Osaka, Taipei and Beijing by a continuous-time autoregressive process. We further inferred...

  20. Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

    This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice.......This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....