WorldWideScience

Sample records for weather events influence

  1. Influence of different weather events on concentrations of particulate matter with different sizes in Lanzhou, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xinyuan Feng; Shigong Wang

    2012-01-01

    The formation and development of weather events has a great impact on the diffusion,accumulation and transport of air pollutants,and causes great changes in the particulate pollution level.It is very important to study their influence on particulate pollution.Lanzhou is one of the most particulate-polluted cities in China and even in the world.Particulate matter (PM) including TSP,PM>10,PM2.5-10,PM2.5 and PM1.0 concentrations were simultaneously measured during 2005-2007 in Lanzhou to evaluate the influence of three kinds of weather events - dust,precipitation and cold front - on the concentrations of PM with different sizes and detect the temporal evolution.The main results are as follows:(1) the PM pollution in Lanzhou during dust events was very heavy and the rate of increase in the concentration of PM2.5-10 was the highest of the five kinds of particles.During dust-storm events,the highest peaks of the concentrations of fine particles (PM2.5 and PM1.0) occurred 3 hr later than those of coarse particles (PM>10 and PM2.5-10).(2) The major effect of precipitation events on PM is wet scavenging.The scavenging rates of particles were closely associated with the kinds of precipitation events.The scavenging rates of TSP,PM>10 and PM2.5-10 by convective precipitation were several times as high as those caused by frontal precipitation for the same precipitation amount,the reason being the different formation mechanism and precipitation characteristics of the two kinds of precipitation.Moreover,there exists a limiting value for the scavenging rates of particles by precipitation.(3) The major effect of cold-front events on particles is clearance.However,during cold-front passages,the PM concentrations could sometimes rise first and decrease afterwards,which is the critical difference in the influence of cold fronts on the concentrations of particulate pollutants vs.gaseous pollutants.

  2. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    McMichael, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental c...

  3. Soil biotic legacy effects of extreme weather events influence plant invasiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meisner, A.; De Deyn, G.B.; De Boer, W.; Van der Putten, W.H.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase future abiotic stresses on ecosystems through extreme weather events leading to more extreme drought and rainfall incidences [Jentsch A, et al. (2007) Front Ecol Environ 5(7):365–374]. These fluctuations in precipitation may affect soil biota, soil processes [E

  4. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  5. Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lydersen, Jamie M; Collins, Brandon M.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Matchett, John R.; Shive, Kristen L.; Povak, Nicholas A.; Kane, Van R.; Smith, Douglas F.

    2017-01-01

    Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western U.S. Given this increase there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation and water balance on fire severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across scales. Both fuels treatments and previous low to moderate severity wildfire reduced the prevalence of high severity fire. In general, areas without recent fuels treatments and areas that previously burned at high severity tended to have a greater proportion of high severity fire in the Rim Fire. Areas treated with prescribed fire, especially when combined with thinning, had the lowest proportions of high severity. Proportion of the landscape burned at high severity was most strongly influenced by fire weather and proportional area previously treated for fuels or burned by low to moderate severity wildfire. The proportion treated needed to effectively reduce the amount of high fire severity fire varied by spatial scale of analysis, with smaller spatial scales requiring a greater proportion treated to see an effect on fire severity. When moderate and high severity fire encountered a previously treated area, fire severity was significantly reduced in the treated area relative to the adjacent untreated area. Our results show that fuels treatments and low to moderate severity wildfire can reduce fire severity in a subsequent wildfire, even when burning under fire growth conditions. These results serve as further evidence that both fuels treatments and lower severity wildfire can increase forest resilience.

  6. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Coumou, Dim

    2017-01-01

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability. PMID:28345645

  7. Remote measurement of cloud microphysics and its influence in predicting high impact weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bipasha, Paul S.; Jinya, John

    2016-05-01

    observations from A-Train , geostationary and futuristic imaging spectroscopic sensors, a multi-dimensional, and multi-scalar exploration of cloud systems is anticipated leading to accurate prediction of high impact weather events.

  8. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  9. How extreme weather events can influence the way of thinking about forest management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemblińska, Klaudia; Merbold, Lutz; Urbaniak, Marek; Haeni, Matthias; Olejnik, Janusz

    2014-05-01

    One third of the total area of Poland, which is covered by forests, is currently managed by "The State National Forest Holding" - the biggest organization in Europe managing forests. Common management practice is based on clear-cutting the vegetation to maintaining forests and ensuring regrowth. While sufficient information exists on the quantity of harvested biomass and particularly its economic value, little knowledge exists on the overall environmental impact of such management including the carbon budgets of forests in Poland. At the same time these forests are very vulnerable to extreme events such as wind throws. Large wind throws can be used as an experimental platform to study both, the effects of extreme events itself but also the effects of management such as clear-cuts, due to the fact that after such kind of natural disasters similar steps then following clear-cuts are implemented. These activities include the removal of whole trees, collection of branches and pulling out stems with heavy machinery, causing additional disturbance. In this study, we aim at providing information to fill the current knowledge gap of changing C budget after clear-cuts and wind throws. We hypothesize large C losses after clear-cuts and ask whether one can improve current forest management to "save" C and/or enhance C sequestration? To answer this specific question we used the eddy covariance (EC) method to adequately measure the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) between a deforested area and the atmosphere (treatment) and compare it to measurements from an intact forest of the same type (control). Both sites have the same soil type (brunic arenosoil - after FAO classification) which is sandy and relatively not fertile. Moreover, main species and composition were similar. The treatment area was chosen after the occurrence of a 20min-lasting tornado in July 2012 in Western Poland. The storm resulted in the destruction of more than 500 ha of 75-year old pine forest

  10. Holocene Landscape Dynamics in the Ammer Rv. Catchment (Bavarian Alps) - Influence of extreme weather events and land use on soil erosion using peat bogs as geoarchives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwindt, Daniel; Manthe, Pierre; Völkel, Jörg

    2016-04-01

    Soil degradation and the loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) induced by erosion events significantly influence soils and fertility as parts of the ecosystem services and play an important role with regard to global carbon dynamics. Soil erosion is strongly correlated with anthropogenic land use since the Neolithic Revolution around 8.000 BP. Likewise the effect of extreme weather events on soil erosion is of great interest with regard to the recent climate change debate, predicting a strong increase of extreme weather events. Aim of this study is the reconstruction of the Holocene landscape dynamic as influenced by land use and climate conditions. In this study peat bogs containing layers of colluvial sediments directly correlated to soil erosion were used as geoarchives for landscape dynamics. A temporal classification of extreme erosion events was established by dating organic material via 14C within both, colluvial layers as well as their direct peat surroundings. Detection and characterization of peat bogs containing colluvial sediments was based on geomorphological mapping, the application of geophysical methods (ERT - electrical resistivity tomography, GPR - ground penetrating radar) and core soundings. Laboratory analysis included the analysis of particle sizes and the content of organic material. We investigated 16 peat bogs following the altitudinal gradient of the Ammer River from alpine and subalpine towards lowland environments. A deposition of colluvial material could be detected in 4 peat bogs, all situated in the lower parts of the catchment. The minerogenic entry into peat bogs occurred throughout the Holocene as revealed by radiocarbon dating. A distinct cluster of erosional events e.g. during the little ice age could not be detected. Therefore, soil erosion dynamics and the appearance of colluvial sediments within peat bogs must rather be regarded as an effect of land use, actually farming and crop cultivation, or small-scale morphodynamic like

  11. Crop Diversiifcation in Coping with Extreme Weather Events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Ji-kun; JIANG Jing; WANG Jin-xia; HOU Ling-ling

    2014-01-01

    Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather events, the question of how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their negative impacts has received great attention from policy makers. The overall goals of this study are to examine whether farmers adapt to extreme weather events through crop diversiifcation and which factors inlfuence farmers’ decisions on crop diversiifcation against extreme weather events in China. To limit the scope of this study, we focus on drought and lfood events only. Based on a unique large-scale household survey in nine provinces, this study ifnds that farmers respond to extreme weather events by increasing crop diversiifcation. Their decision to diversify crops is significantly influenced by their experiences of extreme weather events in the previous year. Such results are understandable because farmers’ behaviors are normally based on their expectations. Moreover, household characteristics also affect farmers’ decisions on crop diversiifcation strategy, and their effects differ by farmers’ age and gender. This paper concludes with several policy implications.

  12. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    monsoon and b) tropical cyclones. Basically the climate of India is domi- nated by the south west monsoon season which accounts for about 75% of the annual rainfall. The extreme weather events occur over India are: Floods, Droughts, Tropical Cyclones..., Heat Waves and Cold Waves, Storms Surges, Hail Storms, Thunderstorms, Dust Storms. Floods, droughts and tropical cyclones have specific significance a far as India is concerned. Floods and droughts are the two sides of the weather phenomena...

  13. Investigating Space Weather Events Impacting the Spitzer Space Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Leo Y.; Hunt, Joseph C. Jr.; Stowers, Kennis; Lowrance, Patrick; Stewart, Andrzej; Travis, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Our understanding of the dynamical process in the space environment has increased dramatically. A relatively new field of study called "Space Weather" has emerged in the last few decades. Fundamental to the study of space weather is an understanding of how space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections impact spacecraft in varying orbits and distances around the Sun. Specialized space weather satellite monitoring systems operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) allow scientists to predict space weather events affecting critical systems on and orbiting the Earth. However, the Spitzer Space Telescope is in an orbit far outside the areas covered by those space weather monitoring systems. This poses a challenge for the Spitzer's Mission Operations Team in determining whether space weather events affect Spitzer.

  14. Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2013-12-01

    Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

  15. Constructing Data Albums for Significant Severe Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Ethan; Zavodsky, Bradley; Ramachandran, Rahul; Kulkarni, Ajinkya; Li, Xiang; Bakare, Rohan; Basyal, Sabin; Conover, Helen

    2014-01-01

    Data Albums provide a one-stop-shop combining datasets from NASA, NWS, online new sources, and social media. Data Albums will help meteorologists better understand severe weather events to improve predictive models. Developed a new ontology for severe weather based off current hurricane Data Album and selected relevant NASA datasets for inclusion.

  16. Extreme water-related weather events and waterborne disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cann, K F; Thomas, D Rh; Salmon, R L; Wyn-Jones, A P; Kay, D

    2013-04-01

    Global climate change is expected to affect the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme water-related weather events such as excessive precipitation, floods, and drought. We conducted a systematic review to examine waterborne outbreaks following such events and explored their distribution between the different types of extreme water-related weather events. Four medical and meteorological databases (Medline, Embase, GeoRef, PubMed) and a global electronic reporting system (ProMED) were searched, from 1910 to 2010. Eighty-seven waterborne outbreaks involving extreme water-related weather events were identified and included, alongside 235 ProMED reports. Heavy rainfall and flooding were the most common events preceding outbreaks associated with extreme weather and were reported in 55·2% and 52·9% of accounts, respectively. The most common pathogens reported in these outbreaks were Vibrio spp. (21·6%) and Leptospira spp. (12·7%). Outbreaks following extreme water-related weather events were often the result of contamination of the drinking-water supply (53·7%). Differences in reporting of outbreaks were seen between the scientific literature and ProMED. Extreme water-related weather events represent a risk to public health in both developed and developing countries, but impact will be disproportionate and likely to compound existing health disparities.

  17. Measuring the effects of extreme weather events on yields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.P. Powell

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather events are expected to increase worldwide, therefore, anticipating and calculating their effects on crop yields is important for topics ranging from food security to the economic viability of biomass products. Given the local nature of weather, particularly precipitation, effects are best measured at a local level. This paper analyzes weather events at the level of the farm for a specific crop, winter wheat. Once it has been established that extreme events are expected to continue occurring at historically high levels for farming locations throughout the Netherlands, the effects of those events on wheat yields are estimated while controlling for the other major input factors affecting yields. Econometric techniques are applied to an unbalanced panel data set of 334 farms for a period of up to 12 years. Analyzes show that the number of days with extreme high temperatures in Dutch wheat growing regions has significantly increased since the early 1900s, while the number of extreme low temperature events has fallen over that same period. The effects of weather events on wheat yields were found to be time specific in that the week in which an event occurred determined its effect on yields. High temperature events and precipitation events were found to significantly decrease yields.

  18. The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Li-Wei

    2017-09-01

    The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

  19. High resolution simulations of extreme weather event in south Sardinia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessy, C.

    2010-05-01

    In the last decade, like most region of Mediterranean Europe, Sardinia has experienced severe precipitation events generating flash floods resulting in loss of lives and large economic damage. A numerical meteorological operational set-up is applied in the local weather service with the aim to improve the operational short range weather forecast of the Service with particular attention to intense, mostly rare and potentially severe, events. On the early hours of 22 October 2008 an intense and almost stationary mesoscale convective system interested particularly the south of Sardinia, heavy precipitation caused a flash flood with fatalities and numerous property damages. The event was particularly intense: about 400 mm of rain in 12 hours (a peak of 150 mm in an hour) were misured by the regional network of weather stations and these values appear extremely meaningfulls since those are about seven times the climatological monthly rainfall for that area and nearly the climatological annual rainfall. With the aim to improve significantly quantitative precipitation forecasting, it was evaluated a different set-up of a high resolution convection resolving model (MM5) initialised with different initial and boundary conditions (ECMWF and NCAR). In this paper it is discussed the meteorological system related to the mentioned event by using different numerical weather models (GCM and LAM) combined with conventional data, radar Doppler and Meteosat images. Preliminary results say that a different set-up of a non hydrostatic model can forecast severe convection events in advance of about one day and produce more realistic rainfall than that current operational and also improve the weather forecasts to respect the ECMWF-GCM. So it could drive an operational alert system in order to limit the risks associated with heavy precipitation events.

  20. On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Pete

    2012-01-01

    By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

  1. On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Pete

    2012-01-01

    By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

  2. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  3. System for autonomous identification and nowcasting of space weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatsuma, T.; Akioka, M.; Ishibashi, H.

    Using near-real time space environment data obtained from GOES and ACE satellites, we have developed algorithm for autonomous identification of space weather events, such as solar flares, proton events, and geomagnetic storms, and a procedure for nowcasting of these events which satisfy criteria of alert level. At first, we have introduced NOAA/SEC's definition of X-ray flare as the prototype algorithm. However, we have found that this algorithm sometimes misses the occurrence of LDE-type flare. So we tried to imporove the algorithm for detecting LDE-type flare. Nowcasting information is provided by e-mail message written in Japanese. This information can be received by a cellular phone. This system provides us an opportunity of monitoring space weather environment 24 hours a day without using human resources. This system is now in test operating phase. In this summer, we will start nowcasting of severe space weather events as a new domestic service of Regional Warning Center of Tokyo, which belongs to International Space Environment Service (ISES). Detailed descriptions of this system, algorithm of event identification, and the results of our test operation will be presented.

  4. Observations and Impact Assessments of Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, D. N.

    2007-05-01

    "Space weather" refers to conditions on the Sun, in the solar wind, and in Earth`s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere. Activity on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections can lead to high levels of radiation in space and can cause major magnetic storms at the Earth. Space radiation can come as energetic particles or as electromagnetic emissions. Adverse conditions in the near-Earth space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids. This can lead to a variety of socioeconomic losses. Astronauts and airline passengers exposed to high levels of radiation are also at risk. Society`s vulnerability to space weather effects is an issue of increasing concern. We are dependent on technological systems that are becoming more susceptible to space weather disturbances. We also have a permanent human presence in space with the International Space Station and the President and NASA have expressed a desire to expand our human space activities with missions to the moon and Mars. This will make space weather of even greater concern in the future. In this talk I will describe many space weather effects and will describe some of the societal and economic impacts that extreme events have had.

  5. Anticipatory Water Management: Using ensemble weather forecasts for critical events

    OpenAIRE

    Van Andel, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    Day-to-day water management is challenged by meteorological extremes, causing floods and droughts. Often operational water managers are informed too late about these upcoming events to be able to respond and mitigate their effects, such as by taking flood control measures or even requiring evacuation of local inhabitants. Therefore, the use of weather forecast information with hydrological models can be invaluable for the operational water manager to expand the forecast horizon and to have ti...

  6. Protecting against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeuring, Jelmer

    2011-01-01

    Protection against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events Severe weather events can have considerable impact on society, including tourism organisations and tourists. Providing accurate and timely information about possible risks due to environmental

  7. Protecting against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeuring, Jelmer

    2011-01-01

    Protection against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events Severe weather events can have considerable impact on society, including tourism organisations and tourists. Providing accurate and timely information about possible risks due to environmental

  8. Space weather effects of Cycle 24 SEP events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, C. M.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Mason, G. M.; Vourlidas, A.

    2012-12-01

    When coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are fast and massive enough they can generate interplanetary shocks that accelerate particles to tens or hundreds of MeV/nucleon. These solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a space weather hazard to astronauts and sensitive space-based equipment. If the CME is directed towards Earth and impacts the magnetosphere it can trigger a geomagnetic storm, resulting in a variety of detrimental effects on communication systems and power grids. Although to date, solar cycle 24 has not produced many large-fluence SEP events nor many geoeffective CMEs, we will compare the activity experienced so far to the most significant events of cycle 23. Possible implications for the remainder of the cycle will also be discussed.

  9. Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frauenfelder, Regula; Solheim, Anders; Isaksen, Ketil; Romstad, Bård; Dyrrdal, Anita V.; Ekseth, Kristine H. H.; Gangstø Skaland, Reidun; Harbitz, Alf; Harbitz, Carl B.; Haugen, Jan E.; Hygen, Hans O.; Haakenstad, Hilde; Jaedicke, Christian; Jónsson, Árni; Klæboe, Ronny; Ludvigsen, Johanna; Meyer, Nele K.; Rauken, Trude; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Kjetil

    2016-04-01

    With the latest results on expected future increase in air temperature and precipitation changes reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the climate robustness of important infrastructure is of raising concern in Norway, as well as in the rest of Europe. Economic consequences of natural disasters have increased considerably since 1950. In addition to the effect of demographic changes such as population growth, urbanization and more and more concentration of valuable assets, this increase is also related to an augmenting frequency of extreme events, such as storms, flooding, drought, and landslides. This change is also observable in Norway, where the increased frequency of strong precipitation has led to frequent flooding and landslide events during the last 20 years. A number of studies show that climate change causes an increase in both frequency and intensity of several types of extreme weather, especially when it comes to precipitation. Such extreme weather events greatly affect the transport infrastructure, with numerous and long closures of roads and railroads, in addition to damage and repair costs. Frequent closures of railroad and roads lead to delay or failure in delivery of goods, which again may lead to a loss of customers and/or - eventually - markets. Much of the Norwegian transport infrastructure is more than 50 years old and therefore not adequately dimensioned, even for present climatic conditions. In order to assess these problems and challenges posed to the Norwegian transport infrastructure from present-day and future extreme weather events, the project "Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk)" was performed under the research Council of Norway program 'NORKLIMA', between 2009 and 2013. The main results of the project are: - Moderate to strong precipitation events have become more frequent and more intense in Norway over the last 50 years, and this trend continues throughout the 21st

  10. Temporal and spatial variations of high-impact weather events in China during 1959-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Jun; Wen, Kangmin; Cui, Linli

    2017-07-01

    The variation and trend in the frequency and duration of four types of high-impact weather (HIW) events were examined using daily surface climate data and linear regression method, and results show that for both the frequency and the duration, the trends of hot weather events were not significant in most parts of China, though for the China as a whole, they had increased with rates of 0.4 days and 0.1 spells of hot weather per decade respectively. The frequency of cold weather events had decreased significantly in most parts of China, particularly in northern, northeastern, and western China, where it increased at rates of 2-8 days per decade in most stations, but the duration of cold weather events were not significant in most parts of China. The frequency of gale weather events had decreased in almost all of China, with a rate of 3.7 days per decade for the China as a whole, and the duration of gale weather events had decreased mainly in northeastern and northern China, western Xinjiang, southwestern Sichuan, and some coastal areas of Liaoning, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Fujian. The frequency of rainstorm weather events was not significant in most parts of China, and the duration of rainstorm weather events was not significant in the whole of China. With global climate change, there would be an increase in the hot and rainstorm weather events, so mitigation/adaptation strategies for such weather events are essential for local government and social public.

  11. Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

    2017-06-19

    Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

  12. Weather Support for the 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Ma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Beijing 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Competitions (referred to as OPSC hereafter were held at Qingdao during August 9–23 and September 7–13 2008, respectively. The Qingdao Meteorological Bureau was the official provider of weather support for the OPSC. Three-dimensional real-time information with high spatial-temporal resolution was obtained by the comprehensive observation system during the OPSC, which included weather radars, wind profile radars, buoys, automated weather stations, and other conventional observations. The refined forecasting system based on MM5, WRF, and statistical modules provided point-specific hourly wind forecasts for the five venues, and the severe weather monitoring and forecasting system was used in short-term forecasts and nowcasts for rainstorms, gales, and hailstones. Moreover, latest forecasting products, warnings, and weather information were communicated conveniently and timely through a synthetic, speedy, and digitalized network system to different customers. Daily weather information briefings, notice boards, websites, and community short messages were the main approaches for regatta organizers, athletes, and coaches to receive weather service products at 8:00 PM of each day and whenever new updates were available. During the period of OPSC, almost one hundred people were involved in the weather service with innovative service concept, and the weather support was found to be successful and helpful to the OPSC.

  13. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity.

  14. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

    2017-03-01

    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3° C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2° per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  15. Analysis of weather condition influencing fire regime in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacciu, Valentina; Masala, Francesco; Salis, Michele; Sirca, Costantino; Spano, Donatella

    2014-05-01

    Fires have a crucial role within Mediterranean ecosystems, with both negative and positive impacts on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In addition, several authors are in agreement suggesting that, during the past decades, changes on fire patterns have occurred, especially in terms of fire-prone areas expansion and fire season lengthening. Climate and weather are two of the main controlling agents, directly and indirectly, of fire regime influencing vegetation productivity, causing water stress, igniting fires through lightning, or modulating fire behavior through wind. On the other hand, these relationships could be not warranted in areas where most ignitions are caused by people (Moreno et al. 2009). Specific analyses of the driving forces of fire regime across countries and scales are thus still required in order to better anticipate fire seasons and also to advance our knowledge of future fire regimes. The objective of this work was to improve our knowledge of the relative effects of several weather variables on forest fires in Italy for the period 1985-2008. Meteorological data were obtained through the MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) database, interpolated at 25x25 km scale. Fire data were provided by the JRC (Join Research Center) and the CFVA (Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale, Sardinia). A hierarchical cluster analysis, based on fire and weather data, allowed the identification of six homogeneous areas in terms of fire occurrence and climate (pyro-climatic areas). Two statistical techniques (linear and non-parametric models) were applied in order to assess if inter-annual variability in weather pattern and fire events had a significant trend. Then, through correlation analysis and multi-linear regression modeling, we investigated the

  16. Weather conditions can influence rheumatic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergés, Josep; Montell, Eulàlia; Tomàs, Elena; Cumelles, Gemma; Castañeda, Guido; Marti, Núria; Möller, Ingrid

    2004-01-01

    In daily clinical practice, many patients attribute joint pain to weather conditions. There is little information published on this subject and most of it is contradictory. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of climatic conditions in rheumatic patients. The present work was carried out with patients attending the Instituto Poal de Reumatologia of Barcelona and the data were analyzed by Bioibérica Farma (Spain). It was a prospective, double-blind study including 92 patients with rheumatic disorders (80 with osteoarthritis, 12 with rheumatoid arthritis) compared to a control group of 42 subjects. The evaluation of pain (Huskisson VAS) and functional capacity (Health Assessment Questionnaire, HAQ) were determined daily during one month. The climatic variables studied were temperature, humidity and barometric pressure. The results obtained have been subject to binary regression analysis. Our data demonstrate that osteoarthritic patients experience increased joint pain in response to a decrease in pressure, indicating that low atmospheric pressure conditions exacerbate joint pain in these patients. Our work also suggests that some meteorological variables affect the occurrence of pain in rheumatoid arthritis, since we have found that low temperature increases the risk of joint pain. Therefore, these data suggest that in the future it may be possible to modulate pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments for some osteoarthritic patients depending on the predictable weather conditions in order to avoid, as much as possible, the disease-associated joint pain and functional incapacity, thus improving patients' quality of life.

  17. An Urban Resilience to Extreme Weather Events Framework for Development of Post Event Learning and Transformative Adaptation in Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solecki, W. D.; Friedman, E. S.; Breitzer, R.

    2016-12-01

    Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are becoming an immediate priority for urban coastal practitioners and stakeholders, adding complexity to decisions concerning risk management for short-term action and long-term needs of city climate stakeholders. The conflict between the prioritization of short versus long-term events by decision-makers creates disconnect between climate science and its applications. The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), a NOAA RISA team, is developing a set of mechanisms to help bridge this gap. The mechanisms are designed to promote the application of climate science on extreme weather events and their aftermath. It is in the post event policy window where significant opportunities for science-policy linkages exist. In particular, CCRUN is interested in producing actionable and useful information for city managers to use in decision-making processes surrounding extreme weather events and climate change. These processes include a sector specific needs assessment survey instrument and two tools for urban coastal practitioners and stakeholders. The tools focus on post event learning and connections between resilience and transformative adaptation. Elements of the two tools are presented. Post extreme event learning supports urban coastal practitioners and decision-makers concerned about maximizing opportunities for knowledge transfer and assimilation, and policy initiation and development following an extreme weather event. For the urban U.S. Northeast, post event learning helps coastal stakeholders build the capacity to adapt to extreme weather events, and inform and develop their planning capacity through analysis of past actions and steps taken in response to Hurricane Sandy. Connecting resilience with transformative adaptation is intended to promote resilience in urban Northeast coastal settings to the long-term negative consequences of extreme weather events. This is done through a knowledge co

  18. The Relation between Extreme Weather Events and the Solar Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battinelli, P.; di Fazio, A.; Torelli, M.

    The oscillating part of the solar irradiance drives the cyclic component of the variations of the terrestrial atmosphere's thermodynamic state. In particular, the average temperature, and thus the turbulent atmospheric fuxes, are influenced. Reliable temperature data exist from ~220,000 years, while accurate solar irradiance space measurements (not affected by the atmosphere's absorption) are available only since 1979. Actually, there is a rather long data-set regarding solar activity, indicated by the Wolf number, which is found to be well correlated with the total solar flux. Thus, we use the Wolf number as a quantitative proxy of the incident flux, even in the interval before the space-based measurements. The fraction of solar energy trapped in the atmosphere due to the re-absorption of the infrared radiation by the greenhouse gases is an increasing function of time (in the latter 150-160 years). Over this interval, we spectrally analyzed the time series of both the Wolf number and the frequencies of extreme meteorological events, isolating and removing in the latter the cyclic components due to the periodic part of the radiative forcing exherted by the Sun. We were thus able to determine the time trend in the data regarding the observed frequencies of the U.S. continental tornadoes (National Center for Atmospheric Research) and of the global cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms on all ocean basins, National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration). We find, for both the data sets an exponential behaviour, with e-folding times: for the cyclones tau ~= 110 years, and for the tornadoes tau ~= 70 years. We are happy to have given --through this work-- a contribution to the interdisciplinary scientific process coordinated by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) through the ICSU (International Council of Scientific Unions) which takes place a latere of the international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  19. Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejduk, Matthew D.; Newman, Lauri K.; Besser, Rebecca L.; Pachura, Daniel A.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

  20. Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Mason, Tom; Wood, Erin L.

    2015-01-01

    Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

  1. Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Mason, Tom; Wood, Erin L.

    2015-01-01

    Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

  2. On possible influence of space weather on agricultural markets: Necessary conditions and probable scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pustil'nik, L.; Yom Din, G.

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area-specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysismethods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable manifestation of the influence of space weather on prices, discovered in the statistics of intervals between the price hikes and phase price asymmetry. We show that the effects of phase price asymmetry persist even during the early modern period in the U.S. in the production of the durum wheat. Within the proposed approach, we analyze the statistics of depopulation in the eighteenth and nineteenth century Iceland, induced by the famine due to a sharp livestock reduction owing to, in its turn, the lack of foodstuff due to the local weather anomalies. A high statistical significance of temporal matching of these events with the periods of extreme solar activity is demonstrated. We discuss the possible consequences of the observed global climate change in the formation of new areas of risk farming, sensitive to space weather.

  3. Influences of the Weather and Climate on Wintering Migratory Bird in Dongting Lake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG; Ju-mei; NIU; Ling-zhi; YAO; Yi; QIN; Hong

    2012-01-01

    [Objective] The research aimed to study influences of the weather and climate on wintering migratory bird in Dongting Lake. [Method] Bird analysis data provided by East Dongting Lake National Nature Reserve and wintering migratory bird monitoring data in big and small west lakes in recent 5 years were used. By combing water level data and various meteorological factors in Chenglingji, wintering migratory bird in Dongting Lake was analyzed. [Result] Abnormal precipitation led to drought or flood in Dongting Lake, causing significant adverse effect on the birds. Abnormal climate was important reason for that wintering migratory bird greatly reduced, such as high temperature and later going south of the strong cold air. Extreme weather and climate events led that some birds in Dongting Lake significantly reduced. Meteorological element had certain influence to bird survey. We should select a reasonable investigation time based on weather and climate. In Birding Festival, weather had little effect on bird species observation. In the migratory season of bird, we could see many birds in fine cold weather after a strong cold air, which suitable for observing bird. When it was low temperature or less rain in autumn, and was high temperature or more rain and sunshine in early winter, it was suitable for migratory birds wintering in Dongting Lake. Ardea cinerea, Anser fabalis and Anser erythropus were more in sunny days while Phalacrocorax carbo was more in rainy weather. Grus grus was more in heavy wind weather while Recurvirostra avosetta was more in small wind weather. [Conclusion] The research provided scientific basis for studying migratory bird in east Dongting Lake.

  4. Influences of wetland plants on weathered acidic mine tailings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eva Stoltz; Maria Greger [Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden). Department of Botany

    2006-11-15

    Establishment of Carex rostrata, Eriophorum angustifolium and Phragmites australis on weathered, acidic mine tailings (pH {approximately} 3) and their effect on pH in tailings were investigated in a field experiment. The amendments, sewage sludge and an ashes-sewage sludge mixture, were used as plant nutrition and their influence on the metal and As concentrations of plant shoots was analysed. An additional experiment was performed in greenhouse with E. angustifolium and sewage sludge as amendments in both weathered and unweathered tailings. After one year, plants grew better in amendments containing ashes in the field, also in those plants the metal and As shoot concentrations were generally lower than in other treatments. After two years, the only surviving plants were found in sewage sludge mixed with ashes. No effect on pH by plants was found in weathered acidic mine tailings in either field- or greenhouse experiment.

  5. Modeling the influence of organic acids on soil weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Corey; Harden, Jennifer; Maher, Kate

    2014-08-01

    Biological inputs and organic matter cycling have long been regarded as important factors in the physical and chemical development of soils. In particular, the extent to which low molecular weight organic acids, such as oxalate, influence geochemical reactions has been widely studied. Although the effects of organic acids are diverse, there is strong evidence that organic acids accelerate the dissolution of some minerals. However, the influence of organic acids at the field-scale and over the timescales of soil development has not been evaluated in detail. In this study, a reactive-transport model of soil chemical weathering and pedogenic development was used to quantify the extent to which organic acid cycling controls mineral dissolution rates and long-term patterns of chemical weathering. Specifically, oxalic acid was added to simulations of soil development to investigate a well-studied chronosequence of soils near Santa Cruz, CA. The model formulation includes organic acid input, transport, decomposition, organic-metal aqueous complexation and mineral surface complexation in various combinations. Results suggest that although organic acid reactions accelerate mineral dissolution rates near the soil surface, the net response is an overall decrease in chemical weathering. Model results demonstrate the importance of organic acid input concentrations, fluid flow, decomposition and secondary mineral precipitation rates on the evolution of mineral weathering fronts. In particular, model soil profile evolution is sensitive to kaolinite precipitation and oxalate decomposition rates. The soil profile-scale modeling presented here provides insights into the influence of organic carbon cycling on soil weathering and pedogenesis and supports the need for further field-scale measurements of the flux and speciation of reactive organic compounds.

  6. Modeling the influence of organic acids on soil weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Corey R.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Maher, Kate

    2014-01-01

    Biological inputs and organic matter cycling have long been regarded as important factors in the physical and chemical development of soils. In particular, the extent to which low molecular weight organic acids, such as oxalate, influence geochemical reactions has been widely studied. Although the effects of organic acids are diverse, there is strong evidence that organic acids accelerate the dissolution of some minerals. However, the influence of organic acids at the field-scale and over the timescales of soil development has not been evaluated in detail. In this study, a reactive-transport model of soil chemical weathering and pedogenic development was used to quantify the extent to which organic acid cycling controls mineral dissolution rates and long-term patterns of chemical weathering. Specifically, oxalic acid was added to simulations of soil development to investigate a well-studied chronosequence of soils near Santa Cruz, CA. The model formulation includes organic acid input, transport, decomposition, organic-metal aqueous complexation and mineral surface complexation in various combinations. Results suggest that although organic acid reactions accelerate mineral dissolution rates near the soil surface, the net response is an overall decrease in chemical weathering. Model results demonstrate the importance of organic acid input concentrations, fluid flow, decomposition and secondary mineral precipitation rates on the evolution of mineral weathering fronts. In particular, model soil profile evolution is sensitive to kaolinite precipitation and oxalate decomposition rates. The soil profile-scale modeling presented here provides insights into the influence of organic carbon cycling on soil weathering and pedogenesis and supports the need for further field-scale measurements of the flux and speciation of reactive organic compounds.

  7. Classification of rainfall events for weather forecasting purposes in andean region of Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez Hincapié, Joan Nathalie; Romo Melo, Liliana; Vélez Upegui, Jorge Julian; Chang, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    This work presents a comparative analysis of the results of applying different methodologies for the identification and classification of rainfall events of different duration in meteorological records of the Colombian Andean region. In this study the work area is the urban and rural area of Manizales that counts with a monitoring hydro-meteorological network. This network is composed of forty-five (45) strategically located stations, this network is composed of forty-five (45) strategically located stations where automatic weather stations record seven climate variables: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, rainfall, solar radiation and barometric pressure. All this information is sent wirelessly every five (5) minutes to a data warehouse located at the Institute of Environmental Studies-IDEA. With obtaining the series of rainfall recorded by the hydrometeorological station Palogrande operated by the National University of Colombia in Manizales (http://froac.manizales.unal.edu.co/bodegaIdea/); it is with this information that we proceed to perform behavior analysis of other meteorological variables, monitored at surface level and that influence the occurrence of such rainfall events. To classify rainfall events different methodologies were used: The first according to Monjo (2009) where the index n of the heavy rainfall was calculated through which various types of precipitation are defined according to the intensity variability. A second methodology that permitted to produce a classification in terms of a parameter β introduced by Rice and Holmberg (1973) and adapted by Llasat and Puigcerver, (1985, 1997) and the last one where a rainfall classification is performed according to the value of its intensity following the issues raised by Linsley (1977) where the rains can be considered light, moderate and strong fall rates to 2.5 mm / h; from 2.5 to 7.6 mm / h and above this value respectively for the previous classifications. The main

  8. Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over Coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Brigode

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Classifications of atmospheric weather patterns (WPs are widely used for the description of the climate of a given region and are employed for many applications, such as weather forecasting, downscaling of global circulation model outputs and reconstruction of past climates. WP classifications were recently used to improve the statistical characterisation of heavy rainfall. In this context, bottom-up approaches, combining spatial distribution of heavy rainfall observations and geopotential height fields have been used to define WP classifications relevant for heavy rainfall statistical analysis. The definition of WPs at the synoptic scale creates an interesting variable which could be used as a link between the global scale of climate signals and the local scale of precipitation station measurements. We introduce here a new WP classification centred on the British Columbia Coastal region (Canada and based on a bottom-up approach. Five contrasted WPs composed this classification, four rainy WPs and one non-rainy WP, the anticyclonic pattern. The four rainy WPs are mainly observed in the winter months (October to March, which is the period of heavy precipitation events in Coastal BC and is thus consistent with the local climatology. The combination of this WP classification with the seasonal description of rainfall is shown to be useful for splitting observed precipitation series into more homogeneous sub-samples and thus identifying, for each station, the synoptic situations that generate the highest hazard in terms of heavy rainfall events. El Niño Southern Oscillations significantly influence the frequency of occurrence of two Coastal BC WPs. Within each WP, ENSO seem to influence only the frequency of rainy events and not the magnitudes of heavy rainfall events. Consequently, MEWP heavy rainfall estimations do not show significant evolution of heavy rainfall behaviour between Niño and Niña winters. However, the WP approach captures the

  9. Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Brigode

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Classifications of atmospheric weather patterns (WPs are widely used for the description of the climate of a given region and are employed for many applications, such as weather forecasting, downscaling of global circulation model outputs and reconstruction of past climates. WP classifications were recently used to improve the statistical characterisation of heavy rainfall. In this context, bottom-up approaches, combining spatial distribution of heavy rainfall observations and geopotential height fields have been used to define WP classifications relevant for heavy rainfall statistical analysis. The definition of WPs at the synoptic scale creates an interesting variable which could be used as a link between the global scale of climate signals and the local scale of precipitation station measurements. We introduce here a new WP classification centred on the British Columbia (BC coastal region (Canada and based on a bottom-up approach. Five contrasted WPs composed this classification, four rainy WPs and one non-rainy WP, the anticyclonic pattern. The four rainy WPs are mainly observed in the winter months (October to March, which is the period of heavy precipitation events in coastal BC and is thus consistent with the local climatology. The combination of this WP classification with the seasonal description of rainfall is shown to be useful for splitting observed precipitation series into more homogeneous sub-samples (i.e. sub-samples constituted by days having similar atmospheric circulation patterns and thus identifying, for each station, the synoptic situations that generate the highest hazard in terms of heavy rainfall events. El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO significantly influence the frequency of occurrence of two coastal BC WPs. Within each WP, ENSO seem to influence only the frequency of rainy events and not the magnitudes of heavy rainfall events. Consequently, heavy rainfall estimations do not show significant evolution of heavy

  10. Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigode, P.; Mićović, Z.; Bernardara, P.; Paquet, E.; Garavaglia, F.; Gailhard, J.; Ribstein, P.

    2013-04-01

    Classifications of atmospheric weather patterns (WPs) are widely used for the description of the climate of a given region and are employed for many applications, such as weather forecasting, downscaling of global circulation model outputs and reconstruction of past climates. WP classifications were recently used to improve the statistical characterisation of heavy rainfall. In this context, bottom-up approaches, combining spatial distribution of heavy rainfall observations and geopotential height fields have been used to define WP classifications relevant for heavy rainfall statistical analysis. The definition of WPs at the synoptic scale creates an interesting variable which could be used as a link between the global scale of climate signals and the local scale of precipitation station measurements. We introduce here a new WP classification centred on the British Columbia (BC) coastal region (Canada) and based on a bottom-up approach. Five contrasted WPs composed this classification, four rainy WPs and one non-rainy WP, the anticyclonic pattern. The four rainy WPs are mainly observed in the winter months (October to March), which is the period of heavy precipitation events in coastal BC and is thus consistent with the local climatology. The combination of this WP classification with the seasonal description of rainfall is shown to be useful for splitting observed precipitation series into more homogeneous sub-samples (i.e. sub-samples constituted by days having similar atmospheric circulation patterns) and thus identifying, for each station, the synoptic situations that generate the highest hazard in terms of heavy rainfall events. El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) significantly influence the frequency of occurrence of two coastal BC WPs. Within each WP, ENSO seem to influence only the frequency of rainy events and not the magnitudes of heavy rainfall events. Consequently, heavy rainfall estimations do not show significant evolution of heavy rainfall

  11. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents.

  12. Major Space Weather Events during the Weak Solar Cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

    2012-01-01

    We report on the level of solar activity during cycles 23 and 24 as the cycles build toward the corresponding solar maxima. The prolonged minimum period that followed solar cycle 23 and the weaker magnetic field at the poles seem to have resulted in a weaker level of activity during cycle 24. The double speak structure often observed in the maximum phases seems to be present during cycle 24, with the first peak having a sunspot number of only N90. large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, major geomagnetic storms, and radio-emitting interplanetary shocks have been observed in relatively sma:ier numbers. While the number of large SEP events during the rise phase of cycles 24 is not too different from that of cycle 23, they are generally less intense. Five ground level enhancement (GlE) events occurred up to the first activity peak in cycle 23, while a lone GlE event has been observed during the corresponding phase in cycle 24. There were 35 large (Dst S -100 nT) geomagnetic storms during the first 4.5 years of cycle 23, while only 5 occurred during cycle 24. The subdued activity during cycle 23 is consistent with the low numbers of type II radio bursts, full halo CMEs, and interplanetary shocks.

  13. Anticipatory Water Management: Using ensemble weather forecasts for critical events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Andel, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    Day-to-day water management is challenged by meteorological extremes, causing floods and droughts. Often operational water managers are informed too late about these upcoming events to be able to respond and mitigate their effects, such as by taking flood control measures or even requiring evacuatio

  14. Anticipatory water management: using ensemble weather forecasts for critical events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Andel, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    Day-to-day water management is challenged by meteorological extremes, causing floods and droughts. Often operational water managers are informed too late about these upcoming events to be able to respond and mitigate their effects, such as by taking flood control measures or even requiring evacuatio

  15. Anticipatory Water Management: Using ensemble weather forecasts for critical events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Andel, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    Day-to-day water management is challenged by meteorological extremes, causing floods and droughts. Often operational water managers are informed too late about these upcoming events to be able to respond and mitigate their effects, such as by taking flood control measures or even requiring evacuatio

  16. Anticipatory water management: using ensemble weather forecasts for critical events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Andel, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    Day-to-day water management is challenged by meteorological extremes, causing floods and droughts. Often operational water managers are informed too late about these upcoming events to be able to respond and mitigate their effects, such as by taking flood control measures or even requiring evacuatio

  17. Anticipatory water management: using ensemble weather forecasts for critical events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Andel, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    Day-to-day water management is challenged by meteorological extremes, causing floods and droughts. Often operational water managers are informed too late about these upcoming events to be able to respond and mitigate their effects, such as by taking flood control measures or even requiring

  18. Anticipatory Water Management: Using ensemble weather forecasts for critical events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Andel, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    Day-to-day water management is challenged by meteorological extremes, causing floods and droughts. Often operational water managers are informed too late about these upcoming events to be able to respond and mitigate their effects, such as by taking flood control measures or even requiring

  19. Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke

    2016-01-01

    In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013.

  20. Influences of weather phenomena on automotive laser radar systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasshofer, R. H.; Spies, M.; Spies, H.

    2011-07-01

    Laser radar (lidar) sensors provide outstanding angular resolution along with highly accurate range measurements and thus they were proposed as a part of a high performance perception system for advanced driver assistant functions. Based on optical signal transmission and reception, laser radar systems are influenced by weather phenomena. This work provides an overview on the different physical principles responsible for laser radar signal disturbance and theoretical investigations for estimation of their influence. Finally, the transmission models are applied for signal generation in a newly developed laser radar target simulator providing - to our knowledge - worldwide first HIL test capability for automotive laser radar systems.

  1. Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Brian E.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kendall, William L.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

    2012-01-01

    Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heat waves, are expected to become more severe and more frequent in the coming years, and understanding their impacts on demographic rates is of increasing interest to both evolutionary ecologists and conservation practitioners. An individual's breeding probability can be a sensitive indicator of the decision to initiate reproductive behavior under varying environmental conditions, has strong fitness consequences, and can be considered the first step in a life history trade-off between allocating resources for breeding activities or self-survival.

  2. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

  3. Addressing the Influence of Space Weather on Airline Navigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, Lawrence

    2012-01-01

    The advent of satellite-based augmentation systems has made it possible to navigate aircraft safely using radio signals emitted by global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) such as the Global Positioning System. As a signal propagates through the earth's ionosphere, it suffers delay that is proportional to the total electron content encountered along the raypath. Since the magnitude of this total electron content is strongly influenced by space weather, the safety and reliability of GNSS for airline navigation requires continual monitoring of the state of the ionosphere and calibration of ionospheric delay. This paper examines the impact of space weather on GNSS-based navigation and provides an overview of how the Wide Area Augmentation System protects its users from positioning error due to ionospheric disturbances

  4. Lightning jump as a nowcast predictor: Application to severe weather events in Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farnell, C.; Rigo, T.; Pineda, N.

    2017-01-01

    Several studies reported sudden increases in the total lightning flash rate (intra-cloud+cloud-to-ground) preceding the occurrence of severe weather (large hail, wind gusts associated to thunderstorms and/or tornadoes). Named ;Lightning Jump;, this pattern has demonstrated to be of operational applicability in the forecasting of severe weather phenomena. The present study introduces the application of a lightning jump algorithm, with an identification of cells based solely on total lightning data, revealing that there is no need of radar data to trigger severe weather warnings. The algorithm was validated by means of a dataset severe weather events occurred in Catalonia in the period 2009-2014. Results obtained revealed very promising.

  5. An Ensemble Approach to Extreme Space Weather Event Probability -- A First Look

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonas, S.; Fronczyk, K.; McCarron, E.; Pratt, L. M.

    2015-12-01

    An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social wellbeing. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events occur less frequently with only several historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) forensically examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events; and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present an analysis of several of these studies. We created a unified statistical framework to visualize previous analyses, and developed a model from an ensemble using statistical methods. We look at geomagnetic disturbance probability across multiple return periods. We discuss what the most likely 100-year extreme event (a parameter of interest to policy makers and planners) and the return period for other extreme historical events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policy makers and planners, the current limitations (in data and understanding) when compared to other hazards, and the gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.

  6. Influences of wetland plants on weathered acidic mine tailings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stoltz, Eva [Department of Botany, Stockholm University, Lilla Frescativaegen 5, S-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)]. E-mail: eva.stoltz@botan.su.se; Greger, Maria [Department of Botany, Stockholm University, Lilla Frescativaegen 5, S-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)]. E-mail: maria.greger@botan.su.se

    2006-11-15

    Establishment of Carex rostrata, Eriophorum angustifolium and Phragmites australis on weathered, acidic mine tailings (pH {approx}3) and their effect on pH in tailings were investigated in a field experiment. The amendments, sewage sludge and an ashes-sewage sludge mixture, were used as plant nutrition and their influence on the metal and As concentrations of plant shoots was analysed. An additional experiment was performed in greenhouse with E. angustifolium and sewage sludge as amendments in both weathered and unweathered tailings. After one year, plants grew better in amendments containing ashes in the field, also in those plants the metal and As shoot concentrations were generally lower than in other treatments. After two years, the only surviving plants were found in sewage sludge mixed with ashes. No effect on pH by plants was found in weathered acidic mine tailings in either field- or greenhouse experiment. - Wetland plant establishment on acidic mine tailings may contribute to a reduced metal release and a stabilisation of pH.

  7. Weather Regime-Dependent Predictability: Sequentially Linked High-Impact Weather Events over the United States during March 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Winters, A. C.; Keyser, D.

    2016-12-01

    High-impact weather events (HWEs), defined by episodes of excessive precipitation or periods of well above or well below normal temperatures, can pose important predictability challenges on medium-range (8-16 day) time scales. Furthermore, HWEs can contribute disproportionately to temperature and precipitation anomaly statistics for a particular season. This disproportionate contribution suggests that HWEs need to be considered in describing and understanding the dynamical and thermodynamic processes that operate at the weather-climate intersection. HWEs typically develop in conjunction with highly amplified flow patterns that permit an extensive latitudinal exchange of polar and tropical air masses. Highly amplified flow patterns over North America often occur in response to a reconfiguration of the large-scale upstream flow pattern over the North Pacific Ocean. The large-scale flow pattern over the North Pacific, North America, and western North Atlantic during the latter half of March 2016 was characterized by frequent cyclonic wave breaking (CWB). This large-scale flow pattern enabled three sequentially linked HWEs to develop over the continental United States. The first HWE was a challenging-to-predict cyclogenesis event on 23-24 March in the central Plains that resulted in both a major snowstorm along the Colorado Front Range and a severe weather outbreak over the central and southern Plains. The second HWE was a severe weather outbreak that occurred over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys on 27-28 March. The third HWE was the development of well below normal temperatures over the eastern United States that followed the formation of a high-latitude omega block over northwestern North America during 28 March-1 April. This study will examine (1) the role that CWB over the North Pacific and North America played in the evolution of the flow pattern during late-March 2016 and the development of the three HWEs and (2) the skill of GFS operational and ensemble

  8. Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

    2012-10-01

    Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth's surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

  9. Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Brian E; Cattau, Christopher E; Fletcher, Robert J; Kendall, William L; Kitchens, Wiley M

    2012-12-01

    Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heat waves, are expected to become more severe and more frequent in the coming years, and understanding their impacts on demographic rates is of increasing interest to both evolutionary ecologists and conservation practitioners. An individual's breeding probability can be a sensitive indicator of the decision to initiate reproductive behavior under varying environmental conditions, has strong fitness consequences, and can be considered the first step in a life history trade-off between allocating resources for breeding activities or self-survival. Using a 14-year time series spanning large variation in climatic conditions and the entirety of a population's breeding range, we estimated the effects of extreme weather conditions (drought) on the state-specific probabilities of breeding and survival of an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). Our analysis accounted for uncertainty in breeding status assignment, a common source of uncertainty that is often ignored when states are based on field observations. Breeding probabilities in adult kites (> 1 year of age) decreased during droughts, whereas the probability of breeding in young kites (1 year of age) tended to increase. Individuals attempting to breed showed no evidence of reduced future survival. Although population viability analyses of this species and other species often implicitly assume that all adults will attempt to breed, we find that breeding probabilities were significantly reproductive effort may be constrained by an individual's quality and/or despotic behavior among individuals attempting to breed.

  10. Research on Trends in Extreme Weather Events and their Effects on Grapevine in Romanian Viticulture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Mihaela Bucur

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work was to investigate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in various centers from Romania’s viticultural regions: winter frost, extreme temperatures during the growing season and summer droughts. Winter frost damaging the vine is a significant risk to grape production, mainly in the plains and lowlands to the foothills. The frequency of winter frost damaging the vine has increased during the last decades, in the context of climate change. Also, there has been found a significant increase in the number of hot days (Tmax > 30°C and very hot days (Tmax > 35°C. The evolution of these extreme events was followed in Craiova, Constanta, Bucharest, Timisoara, Cluj-Napoca, Oradea and Iasi, between 1977 and 2015. The long term study (18 years conducted in the experimental plantation of the University of Agronomic Sciences and Veterinary Medicine Bucharest revealed their influence on vine. During the last two decades, there has been registered a trend of increasing the frequency and intensity of winter frost, damaging vine (Tmin 30°C and > 35°C and droughts that adversely affect viticulture, production and quality of grapes and wine. The highest warming trends were observed for northern viticultural regions (Transylvania and Moldavia and for the seaside. Although the intensification of heat waves increases sugar accumulation in the berries, they trigger a significant reduction in grape production and in titrable acidity, requiring corrections and resulting in unbalanced wines. Meanwhile, droughts trigger production decrease. To avoid negative effects on vine, it is necessary to take measures, both on a short, medium and long term.

  11. DADA: Data Assimilation for the Detection and Attribution of Weather and Climate-related Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannart, Alexis; Bocquet, Marc; Carrassi, Alberto; Ghil, Michael; Naveau, Philippe; Pulido, Manuel; Ruiz, Juan; Tandeo, Pierre

    2015-04-01

    We describe a new approach allowing for near real time, systematic causal attribution of weather and climate-related events. The method is purposely designed to allow its operability at meteorological centers by synergizing causal attribution with data treatments that are routinely performed when numerically forecasting the weather, thereby taking advantage of their powerful computational and observational capacity. Namely, we show that causal attribution can be obtained as a by-product of the so-called data assimilation procedures that are run on a daily basis to update the meteorological model with new atmospheric observations. We explain the theoretical rationale of this approach and sketch the most prominent features of a "data assimilation-based detection and attribution" (DADA) procedure. The proposal is illustrated in the context of the 3-variables Lorenz model. Several practical and theoretical research questions that need to be addressed to make the proposal readily operational within weather forecasting centers are finally laid out.

  12. Identifying Hail Signatures in Satellite Imagery from the 9-10 August 2011 Severe Weather Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dryden, Rachel L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Cole, Tony A.; Bell, Jordan

    2014-01-01

    Severe thunderstorms can produce large hail that causes property damage, livestock fatalities, and crop failure. However, detailed storm surveys of hail damage conducted by the National Weather Service (NWS) are not required. Current gaps also exist between Storm Prediction Center (SPC) hail damage estimates and crop-insurance payouts. NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites can be used to support NWS damage assessments, particularly to crops during the growing season. The two-day severe weather event across western Nebraska and central Kansas during 9-10 August 2011 offers a case study for investigating hail damage signatures by examining changes in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from MODIS imagery. By analyzing hail damage swaths in satellite imagery, potential economic losses due to crop damage can be quantified and further improve the estimation of weather impacts on agriculture without significantly increasing manpower requirements.

  13. The Influence of Cockpit Weather Automation on Pilot Perception and Decision-Making in Severe Weather Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambs, Kryn M.

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This research examines situations in which a pilot either chooses to use, or refrains from using weather-related automation systems, and how the presence of such systems influences a pilot’s decision-making, performance and ability to perceive danger in severe weather conditions. Results indicate that the influence of automation on a pilot’s perception and decision-making process is dependent upon the pilot’s ability to perform manual flight tasks, independent of the automation. Pilots are more likely to continue flight into severe weather conditions and less likely to identify hazardous weather changes when an imbalance exists between a pilot’s flight experience, confidence in ability to manually operate the aircraft, and reliance on automation systems.

  14. Geostationary Communications Satellites as Sensors for the Space Weather Environment: Telemetry Event Identification Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlton, A.; Cahoy, K.

    2015-12-01

    Reliability of geostationary communication satellites (GEO ComSats) is critical to many industries worldwide. The space radiation environment poses a significant threat and manufacturers and operators expend considerable effort to maintain reliability for users. Knowledge of the space radiation environment at the orbital location of a satellite is of critical importance for diagnosing and resolving issues resulting from space weather, for optimizing cost and reliability, and for space situational awareness. For decades, operators and manufacturers have collected large amounts of telemetry from geostationary (GEO) communications satellites to monitor system health and performance, yet this data is rarely mined for scientific purposes. The goal of this work is to acquire and analyze archived data from commercial operators using new algorithms that can detect when a space weather (or non-space weather) event of interest has occurred or is in progress. We have developed algorithms, collectively called SEER (System Event Evaluation Routine), to statistically analyze power amplifier current and temperature telemetry by identifying deviations from nominal operations or other events and trends of interest. This paper focuses on our work in progress, which currently includes methods for detection of jumps ("spikes", outliers) and step changes (changes in the local mean) in the telemetry. We then examine available space weather data from the NOAA GOES and the NOAA-computed Kp index and sunspot numbers to see what role, if any, it might have played. By combining the results of the algorithm for many components, the spacecraft can be used as a "sensor" for the space radiation environment. Similar events occurring at one time across many component telemetry streams may be indicative of a space radiation event or system-wide health and safety concern. Using SEER on representative datasets of telemetry from Inmarsat and Intelsat, we find events that occur across all or many of

  15. Reported weather events in medieval Hungary: the 11th-15th centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    In the presentation an overview of weather events, documented in contemporary written sources - available both in private and institutional evidence -, is provided: geographically the study covers the Hungarian kingdom (occasionally also with sources from the medieval Croatian kingdoms) that included most parts of the Carpathian Basin. Even if the temporal coverage extends the high and late medieval period between 1000 to 1500, most of the data comes from the late medieval times, with special emphasis on the 15th century. Most of the information is available regarding cold spells (e.g. early and late frosts), but especially cold winter periods. Nevertheless, contemporary documentary evidence - mainly legal documentation (charters), official and private correspondence, partly narratives and town accounts - also consists of evidence concerning other, weather-related extreme events such as (thunder)storms, floods and droughts. Apart from the discussion of the availability and type of these events, based on the relative frequency of occurrence we can define periods when a higher frequency and magnitude of weather-related events were reported that is mainly not dependent on changing source densities. These detectable periods (e.g. the early and mid-14th, early and late 15th centuries) are also a further, separate topic of discussion in the presentation.

  16. Influences of rainfall variables and antecedent discharge on urban effluent concentrations and loads in wet weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zuxin; Xiong, Lijun; Li, Huaizheng; Liao, Zhengliang; Yin, Hailong; Wu, Jun; Xu, Jin; Chen, Hao

    2017-04-01

    For storm drainages inappropriately connected with sewage, wet weather discharge is a major factor that adversely affects receiving waters. A study of the wet weather influences of rainfall-discharge variables on storm drainages connected with sewage was conducted in the downtown Shanghai area (374 ha). Two indicators, event mean concentration (EMC) and event pollutant load per unit area (EPL), were used to describe the pollution discharge during 20 rain events. The study showed that the total rainfall and discharge volume were important factors that affect the EMCs and EPLs of the chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus, and especially those of NH4(+)-N. The pollutant concentrations at the beginning of the discharge and the discharge period were also major factors that influence the EMCs of these three pollutants. Regression relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and discharge volume/ EPLs (R(2) = 0.824-0.981) were stronger than the relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and EMCs. These regression equations can be considered reliable in the system, with a relative validation error of less than ±10% for the discharge volume, and less than ±20% for the EPLs. The results presented in this paper provide guidance for effectively controlling pollution in similar storm drainages.

  17. Army Corps of Engineers: Efforts to Assess the Impact of Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    southern California dam, which allowed the Corps to retain rainwater to help respond to the state’s extreme drought conditions . The Corps has assessed...anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and adapt to changing conditions and to withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions with minimal damage. As directed... Extreme Weather Events in the Planning Process Page 16 GAO-15-660 Army Corps of Engineers adapting projects to this projected change.27

  18. Research on Trends in Extreme Weather Events and their Effects on Grapevine in Romanian Viticulture

    OpenAIRE

    Georgeta Mihaela Bucur; Anca Cristina Babes

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this work was to investigate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in various centers from Romania’s viticultural regions: winter frost, extreme temperatures during the growing season and summer droughts. Winter frost damaging the vine is a significant risk to grape production, mainly in the plains and lowlands to the foothills. The frequency of winter frost damaging the vine has increased during the last decades, in the context of climate change. Also, there has be...

  19. Links between Synoptic Weather Types and Extreme Wet Events in the Arabian Peninsula (1960-2100)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2014-05-01

    In this work, an automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was applied to classify daily weather types in the Arabian Peninsula. The output catalogue included ten basic weather types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the peninsula (i.e., cyclonic, anticyclonic and directional). These large-scale patterns were first defined for the observed climate (1960-2013), allowing for an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations in circulation-rainfall relationships over the peninsula using rainfall data from 209 weather observatories. The same methodology was then applied to assess how the defined weather types will be presented in future climate simulations (under RCP45 and RCP85 emission scenarios) and to explore their probable dependency with rainfall characteristics. In this regard, daily simulated SLP derived from an ensemble of 12 climate models within the CMIP5 project were used for two future time-slices (2035-2060 and 2075-2100). Our findings indicate that the cyclonic (C) type represented the most frequent classification with 69.2% of days, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also found that the main circulation features influencing winter (spring) rainfall across the peninsula are the strong influence of the anticyclonic (easterly and southeasterly) air masses. Generally, the role of airflows originating from the Indian Ocean is larger than those of the Mediterranean and the Red Seas. The trend results of defined weather types show that the cyclonic (anticyclonic) conditions tend to decrease (increase). This picture is likely to continue during the 21st century. The only exception corresponds to the summer season. Here, understanding the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula can be important for the understanding of climatic variability and thus developing circulation-based downscaling methods in this region.

  20. Hydro-geomorphologic events in Portugal and its association with Circulation weather types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Susana; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Rebelo, Luís; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Zêzere, José L.

    2017-04-01

    Floods and landslides correspond to the most hazardous weather driven natural disasters in Portugal. A recent improvement on their characterization has been achieved with the gathering of basic information on past floods and landslides that caused social consequences in Portugal for the period 1865-2015 through the DISASTER database (Zêzere et al., 2014). This database was built under the assumption that strong social impacts of floods and landslides are sufficient relevant to be reported consistently by national and regional newspapers. The DISASTER database contains detailed information on the location, date of occurrence and social impacts (fatalities, injuries, missing people, evacuated and homeless people) of each individual hydro-geomorphologic case (1677 flood cases and 292 landslide cases). These hydro-geomorphologic disaster cases are grouped in a restrict number of DISASTER events that were selected according to the following criteria: a set of at least 3 DISASTER cases sharing the same trigger in time (with no more than 3 days without cases), which have a widespread spatial extension related to the triggering mechanism and a certain magnitude. In total, the DISASTER database includes 134 events (3.7 average days of duration) that generated high social impacts in Portugal (962 fatalities and 40878 homeless people). Each DISASTER event was characterized with the following attributes: hydro-geomorphologic event type (e.g landslides, floods, flash floods, urban floods); date of occurrence (year, month and days); duration in days; spatial location in GIS; number of fatalities, injured, evacuated and homeless people; and weather type responsible for triggering the event. The atmospheric forcing at different time scales is the main trigger for the hydro-meteorological DISASTER events occurred in Portugal. In this regard there is an urge for a more systematic assessment of the weather types associated to flood and landslide damaging events to correctly

  1. The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knipp, D. J.; Ramsay, A. C.; Beard, E. D.; Boright, A. L.; Cade, W. B.; Hewins, I. M.; McFadden, R. H.; Denig, W. F.; Kilcommons, L. M.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

    2016-09-01

    Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01 and 9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high-frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently, record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. An important and long-lasting outcome of this storm was more formal Department of Defense-support for current-day space weather forecasting. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the twentieth century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the twentieth century, despite the apparent lack of large geomagnetically induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

  2. Modernizing Distribution System Restoration to Achieve Grid Resiliency Against Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Solution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Chen; Wang, Jianhui; Ton, Dan

    2017-07-01

    Recent severe power outages caused by extreme weather hazards have highlighted the importance and urgency of improving the resilience of the electric power grid. As the distribution grids still remain vulnerable to natural disasters, the power industry has focused on methods of restoring distribution systems after disasters in an effective and quick manner. The current distribution system restoration practice for utilities is mainly based on predetermined priorities and tends to be inefficient and suboptimal, and the lack of situational awareness after the hazard significantly delays the restoration process. As a result, customers may experience an extended blackout, which causes large economic loss. On the other hand, the emerging advanced devices and technologies enabled through grid modernization efforts have the potential to improve the distribution system restoration strategy. However, utilizing these resources to aid the utilities in better distribution system restoration decision-making in response to extreme weather events is a challenging task. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated solution: a distribution system restoration decision support tool designed by leveraging resources developed for grid modernization. We first review the current distribution restoration practice and discuss why it is inadequate in response to extreme weather events. Then we describe how the grid modernization efforts could benefit distribution system restoration, and we propose an integrated solution in the form of a decision support tool to achieve the goal. The advantages of the solution include improving situational awareness of the system damage status and facilitating survivability for customers. The paper provides a comprehensive review of how the existing methodologies in the literature could be leveraged to achieve the key advantages. The benefits of the developed system restoration decision support tool include the optimal and efficient allocation of repair

  3. Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Neil; Guillod, Benoit; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim

    2015-04-01

    Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models Neil Massey, Benoit P. Guillod, Friederike E. L. Otto, Myles R. Allen, Richard Jones, Jim W. Hall Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Extreme events can have large impacts on societies and are therefore being increasingly studied. In particular, climate change is expected to impact the frequency and intensity of these events. However, a major limitation when investigating extreme weather events is that, by definition, only few events are present in observations. A way to overcome this issue it to use large ensembles of model simulations. Using the volunteer distributed computing (VDC) infrastructure of weather@home [1], we run a very large number (10'000s) of RCM simulations over the European domain at a resolution of 25km, with an improved land-surface scheme, nested within a free-running GCM. Using VDC allows many thousands of climate model runs to be computed. Using observations for the GCM boundary forcings we can run historical "hindcast" simulations over the past 100 to 150 years. This allows us, due to the chaotic variability of the atmosphere, to ascertain how likely an extreme event was, given the boundary forcings, and to derive synthetic event sets. The events in these sets did not actually occur in the observed record but could have occurred given the boundary forcings, with an associated probability. The event sets contain time-series of fields of meteorological variables that allow impact modellers to assess the loss the event would incur. Projections of events into the future are achieved by modelling projections of the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary forcings, by combining the variability of the SST in the observed record with a range of warming signals derived from the varying responses of SSTs in the CMIP5 ensemble to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in three RCP scenarios. Simulating the future with a

  4. When Siberia came to the Netherlands: The response of continental black-tailed godwits to a rare spring weather event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senner, Nathan R.; Verhoeven, Mo A.; Abad-Go´mez, Jose´ M.; Gutie´rrez, Jorge S.; Hooijmeijer, Jos C. E. W.; Kentie, Rosemarie; Masero, Jose´ A.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Piersma, Theunis

    2015-01-01

    Summary Extreme weather events have the potential to alter both short- and long-term population dynamics as well as community- and ecosystem-level function. Such events are rare and stochastic, making it difficult to fully document how organisms respond to them and predict the repercussions of similar events in the future.

  5. When Siberia came to the Netherlands : The response of continental black-tailed godwits to a rare spring weather event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Senner, Nathan R; Verhoeven, Mo A; Abad-Gómez, José M; Gutiérrez, Jorge S; Hooijmeijer, Jos C E W; Kentie, Rosemarie; Masero, José A; Tibbitts, T Lee; Piersma, Theunis

    2015-01-01

    Extreme weather events have the potential to alter both short- and long-term population dynamics as well as community- and ecosystem-level function. Such events are rare and stochastic, making it difficult to fully document how organisms respond to them and predict the repercussions of similar event

  6. Influence of meteorological events on obstetrical data in cattle and swine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickie, M B; Sabo, P; Schaller, A

    1994-09-01

    In a interdisciplinary scientific cooperation involving human and veterinarian obstetricians and meteorologists, an attempt was made to correlate the obstetrical data of cows and pigs with meteorologically defined weather events. During the observation period of 10 years the parturitions of cattle (n = 645) showed no significant statistical connection to the weather on day of delivery, the day before parturition or the day after. The only significant result in cattle was a shortening of the gestation period by 4.9 days in a group of cows that went into labour on, or after, the sixth day of a constant weather situation. Significant variations in the duration of gestation in swine (n = 786) were related to the weather on the day of delivery; central high-gradient anticyclonic spring, summer and autumn weather was linked to an extension of the pregnancy by nearly 1 day, while cyclonic central low-gradient weather during autumn was related to a shortening of pregnancy by approximately 1 day. The weather on the day before parturition was also correlated with the duration of gestation in swine. In this respect, low-gradient cyclonic autumn weather coincided with gestation periods that were reduced by 0.95 days, while central anticyclonic winter and spring weather coincided with extensions of gestation of 0.98 and 1.12 days, respectively. Compared with labour during low-gradient anticyclonic weather, the course of labour in pigs was significantly protracted by approximately 1.5 h during low-gradient cyclonic weather. Weather fronts on the day before, the day after or on the day of labour had no influence on the gestation and parturition data collected in either species.

  7. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-11-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  8. Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hari Prasad

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.

  9. The use of normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events and their relation to Weather Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.

    2009-09-01

    measures we can evaluate if there is any preferable WT responsible for high or low values of anomalies. Hart, R.E and R.H. Grumm (2001) Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectivily. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 2426-2442. Jones, P. D., M. Hulme, K. R. Briffa (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with anobjective classification scheme. International Journal of Climatology, 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., J.J. Taboada and L.Gimeno (2008). Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). International Journal of Climatology 28(11): 1493:1505 DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646.

  10. A database of high-impact weather events in Greece: a descriptive impact analysis for the period 2001–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Papagiannaki

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the development of a database of high-impact weather events that occurred in Greece since 2001. The selected events are related to the occurrence of floods, flash floods, hail, snow/frost, tornados, windstorms, heat waves and lightning with adverse consequences (excluding those related to agriculture. The database includes, among others, the geographical distribution of the recorded events, relevant meteorological data, a brief description of the induced impacts and references in the press. This paper further offers an extensive analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution of high-impact weather events for the period 2001–2011, taking into account the intensity of weather conditions and the consequent impact on the society. Analysis of the monthly distribution of high-impact weather events showed that they are more frequent during October and November. More than 80 people lost their lives, half of which due to flash floods. In what concerns the spatial distribution of high-impact weather events, among the 51 prefectures of the country, Attica, Thessaloniki, Elia and Halkidiki were the most frequently affected areas, mainly by flash floods. Significant was also the share of tornados in Elia, of windstorms in Attica, of lightning and hail events in Halkidiki and of snow/frost events in Thessaloniki.

  11. The Extreme Climate Index: a novel and multi-hazard index for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2017-04-01

    In this presentation we introduce the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events in African countries, thus indicating that a shift to a new climate regime is underway in a particular area. This index has been developed in the context of XCF (eXtreme Climate Facilities) project lead by ARC (African Risk Capacity, specialised agency of the African Union), and will be used in the payouts triggering mechanism of an insurance programme against risks related to the increase of frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events due to climate regimes' changes. The main hazards covered by ECI will be extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding region-specific risk events such as tropical cyclones for the most vulnerable areas. It will be based on data coming from consistent, sufficiently long, high quality historical records and will be standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be comparable. The first step to construct such an index is to define single hazard indicators. In this first study we focused on extreme dry/wet and heat events, using for their description respectively the well-known SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and an index developed by us, called SHI (Standardized Heat-waves Index). The second step consists in the development of a computational strategy to combine these, and possibly other indices, so that the ECI can describe, by means of a single indicator, different types of climatic extremes. According to the methodology proposed in this paper, the ECI is defined by two statistical components: the ECI intensity, which indicates whether an event is extreme or not; the angular component, which represent the contribution of each hazard to the overall intensity of the index. The ECI can thus be used to identify "extremes" after defining a

  12. Cosmic rays and other space weather effects influenced on satellite operation, technologies, biosphere and people health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lev, Dorman

    2016-07-01

    Satellite anomalies (or malfunctions), including total distortion of electronics and loose of some satellites cost for Insurance Companies billions dollars per year. During especially active periods the probability of big satellite anomalies and their loosing increased very much. Now, when a great number of civil and military satellites are continuously worked for our practice life, the problem of satellite anomalies became very important. Many years ago about half of satellite anomalies were caused by technical reasons (for example, for Russian satellites Kosmos), but with time with increasing of production quality, this part became smaller and smaller. The other part, which now is dominated, caused by different space weather effects (energetic particles of CR and generated/trapped in the magnetosphere, and so on). We consider only satellite anomalies not caused by technical reasons: the total number of such anomalies about 6000 events, and separately for high and low altitude orbit satellites (5000 and about 800 events, correspondingly for high and low altitude satellites). No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and solar proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (account under developing of the anomaly frequency models and forecasting. We consider also influence of CR on frequency of gene mutations and evolution of biosphere (we show that if it will be no CR, the Earth's civilization will be start only after milliards years later, what will be too late), CR role in thunderstorm phenomena and discharges, space weather effects on space technologies and radiation effects from solar and galactic CR in dependence of cutoff rigidities and altitude, influence magnetic storms accompanied by CR Forbush-effects on people health (increasing frequency of infarct myocardial and brain strokes), increasing frequency of car

  13. Some proves of integrated influence of geomagnetic activity and weather changes on human health

    CERN Document Server

    Khabarova, O V

    2008-01-01

    Our environment includes many factors, and each person on the Earth is permanently influenced by two of them: weather and magnetic field. It was found in the works of many investigators that the weather changes correlate with human health state. In the same time, disturbances of geomagnetic field (as one of the space weather manifestations) may influence bioobjects, including people. In this work we demonstrate the cumulative effect of different external factors (space weather and meteorological weather parameters) on human health on the base of medical experimental data (blood pressure and heart rate data rows for 86 people). It is shown that inclusion both solar-geomagnetic and weather parameters in simulation process give adjusting mixed parameter, which correlates with health state significantly better, than separated environmental parameters do.

  14. The CAULDRON game: Helping decision makers understand extreme weather event attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, P.; Otto, F. E. L.

    2014-12-01

    There is a recognition from academics and stakeholders that climate science has a fundamental role to play in the decision making process, but too frequently there is still uncertainty about what, when, how and why to use it. Stakeholders suggest that it is because the science is presented in an inaccessible manner, while academics suggest it is because the stakeholders do not have the scientific knowledge to understand and apply the science appropriately. What is apparent is that stakeholders need support, and that there is an onus on academia to provide it. This support is even more important with recent developments in climate science, such as extreme weather event attribution. We are already seeing the impacts of extreme weather events around the world causing lost of life and damage to property and infrastructure with current research suggesting that these events could become more frequent and more intense. If this is to be the case then a better understanding of the science will be vital in developing robust adaptation and business planning. The use of games, role playing and simulations to aid learning has long been understood in education but less so as a tool to support stakeholder understanding of climate science. Providing a 'safe' space where participants can actively engage with concepts, ideas and often emotions, can lead to deep understanding that is not possible through more passive mechanisms such as papers and web sites. This paper reports on a game that was developed through a collaboration led by the Red Cross/Red Crescent, University of Oxford and University of Reading to help stakeholders understand the role of weather event attribution in the decision making process. The game has already been played successfully at a number of high profile events including COP 19 and the African Climate Conference. It has also been used with students as part of a postgraduate environmental management course. As well as describing the design principles of the

  15. PRECURSOR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR HAIL-EVENT FORECASTING IN THE MOLDAVIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VASILICĂ ISTRATE

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available he present work analysed a statistically representative number of severe convective events which caused hail and material damage during 1990-2015. For these episodes heights of 0oC, -6oC, -10oC and -20oC isotherms were analyzed. In the layers between these four isotherms, the formation and growth of hailstones occur. The height of these isotherms in the period preceding hail is essential in weather forecast of this phenomenon. Lifted index values recorded before hail events are also correlated with height isotherms. The altitudinal differences between the height of -6oC and -20oC isotherm and freezing level which represents intervals of initiation and formation of hail are identified. Not at last the values of the meteorological indices used to forecast the potential formation and hail falling in extracarpathian Moldavia are presented in details.

  16. Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hosek

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event.

    The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.

  17. Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosek, J.; Musilek, P.; Lozowski, E.; Pytlak, P.

    2011-02-01

    The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event. The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.

  18. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Laetitia H M; Graham, Hilary M; White, Piran C L

    2016-11-08

    The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies) or Asia (seven studies), whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies), closely followed by flooding (six studies). No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events.

  19. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laetitia H. M. Schmitt

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies or Asia (seven studies, whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies, closely followed by flooding (six studies. No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events.

  20. Mitigation Efforts in Rural Communities after Extreme Weather Events - New Insights for Stakeholders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesela Radovic

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate changes are undoubtedly course of the increasing frequency of extreme whether events all over the world. Rural communities belong to the “group of victims” which is greatly jeopardized by consequences of the extreme weather events. Having in mind limited capacities for the preparedness, response and recovery after any kind of emergency it is clear that the rural community mostly needs external help. That is the point of this paper: to make new insights about this important issue, and to discuss: “how to provide adequate help in the rural communities and build adequate adaptive and response capacities”. In many countries agriculture and rural tourism are main economic activities in the rural area and its interruption could be the obstacle for implementation of sustainable development. Various stakeholders omit to be aware of this issue. Emergency agencies and many others have to make the comprehensive plan for rural communities (having in mind all its limitations. In the Republic of Serbia rural communities do not have enough capacity for recovery and usually it takes many years after an event. A minimum of an economic recovery standard has to be created for the rural community. It also has to be a specific contingency plan in the future reorganizations of emergency services in Serbia and at the Western Balkan region. It should be one of the priority issues for stakeholders in the near future in disaster risk reduction. Providing equal access to resources to population in the rural community after the extreme weather event has to be the priority task for policy makers and all actors in emergency management.

  1. When Siberia came to the Netherlands: the response of continental black-tailed godwits to a rare spring weather event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Senner, N.R.; Verhoeven, M.A.; Abad-Gómez, J.; Gutiérrez, J.S.; Hooijmeijer, J.C.E.W.; Kentie, R.; Masero, J.A.; Tibbitts, T.L; Piersma, T.

    2015-01-01

    1. Extreme weather events have the potential to alter both short- and long-term population dynamics as well as community- and ecosystem-level function. Such events are rare and stochastic,making it difficult to fully document how organisms respond to them and predict therepercussions of similar even

  2. Insurance as an adaptation strategy for extreme weather events indeveloping countries and economies in transition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Evan

    2004-06-30

    The insurance industry can play a material role indecreasing the vulnerability of developing countries and economies intransition to weather-related natural disasters while simultaneouslysupporting both its own market-based objectives and the objectives ofsustainable development. Although insurance is not a "silver bullet" forthe problems posed by natural disasters in emerging markets,public-private partnerships can enhance insurance's ability to spread therisks and manage the costs of weather-related disasters as well as toincrease the pool of people who have access to coverage. (For simplicityin this report, the phrase "emerging markets" is intended to encompassdeveloping countries and economies in transition.) Promising strategiesfor emerging markets involve establishing innovative products and systemsfor delivering insurance and using technologies and practices that bothreduce vulnerability to disaster-related insurance losses and supportsustainable development (including reducing greenhouse gas emissions).These strategies can enhance sustainable development efforts and increasethe insurability of risks, making insurance markets in emerging marketsmore viable. Emerging markets are especially vulnerable to extremeweather events, which impede development by causing physical damage,compromising human and ecosystem health, diverting scarce resources todisaster relief and recovery, and deterring future investment andinsurance availability by amplifying the risks faced by foreigninterests. An average of 300 million people are affected or killed eachyear by weather-related disasters in emerging markets. Characteristics ofemerging markets contributing to their particular vulnerability incontrast to developed nations include: greater frequency of poverty;weaker lifelines (transportation, communication, utilities, emergencyresponse, and hospitals); poorer quality of construction and absence ofor deficiencies in building codes and other regulations; and

  3. Relationship Between HIMAWARI-8-DERIVED Overshooting Tops and Extreme Weather Events in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, H. M.; Kim, M. A.; Im, J.

    2016-06-01

    Severe weathers such as heavy rainfall, floods, strong wind, and lightning are closely related with the strong convection activities of atmosphere. Overshooting tops sometimes occur by deep convection above tropopause, penetrating into the lower stratosphere. Due to its high potential energy, the detection of OT is crucial to understand the climatic phenomena. Satellite images are useful to detect the dynamics of atmospheric conditions using cloud observation. This study used machine learning methods for extracting OTs. The reference cases were built using CloudSat, CALIPSO, and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data with Himawari-8 imagery. As reference cases, 11 OT events were detected. The aim of this study is the investigation of relationship between OTs cases and the occurrences of heavy rainfall. For investigation of OT effects, TRMM daily rain rate data (mm/hr) were collected and averaged at 25 km intervals until 250km from the center of OT cases. As the result, precipitation rate clearly coincides with the distance from the center of OT occurrence.

  4. Extreme weather event in spring 2013 delayed breeding time of Great Tit and Blue Tit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glądalski, Michał; Bańbura, Mirosława; Kaliński, Adam; Markowski, Marcin; Skwarska, Joanna; Wawrzyniak, Jarosław; Zieliński, Piotr; Bańbura, Jerzy

    2014-12-01

    The impact of climatic changes on life cycles by re-scheduling the timing of reproduction is an important topic in studies of biodiversity. Global warming causes and will probably cause in the future not only raising temperatures but also an increasing frequency of extreme weather events. In 2013, the winter in central and north Europe ended late, with low temperatures and long-retained snow cover--this extreme weather phenomenon acted in opposition to the increasing temperature trend. In 2013, thermal conditions measured by the warmth sum in the period 15 March–15 April, a critical time for early breeding passerines, went far beyond the range of the warmth sums for at least 40 preceding years. Regardless of what was the reason for the extreme early spring 2013 and assuming that there is a potential for more atypical years because of climate change, we should look closely at every extreme phenomenon and its consequences for the phenology of organisms. In this paper, we report that the prolonged occurrence of winter conditions during the time that is crucial for Blue Tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and Great Tit (Parus major) reproduction caused a substantial delay in the onset of egg laying in comparison with typical springs.

  5. The plasmasphere during a space weather event: first results from the PLASMON project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reda Jan

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The results of the first 18 months of the PLASMON project are presented. We have extended our three, existing ground-based measuring networks, AWDANet (VLF/whistlers, EMMA/SANSA (ULF/FLRs, and AARDDVARK (VLF/perturbations on transmitters’ signal, by three, eight, and four new stations, respectively. The extended networks will allow us to achieve the four major scientific goals, the automatic retrieval of equatorial electron densities and density profiles of the plasmasphere by whistler inversion, the retrieval of equatorial plasma mass densities by EMMA and SANSA from FLRs, developing a new, data assimilative model of plasmasphere and validating the model predictions through comparison of modeled REP losses with measured data by AARDDVARK network. The first results on each of the four objectives are presented through a case study on a space weather event, a dual storm sudden commencement which occurred on August 3 and 4, 2010.

  6. A twenty-first century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, A.B.; Anderson, M.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ralph, F.M.; Hinojosa, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Hartman, R.K.; Reynolds, D.W.; Johnson, L.E.; Schneider, T.L.; Cifelli, R.; Toth, Z.; Gutman, S.I.; King, C.W.; Gehrke, F.; Johnston, P.E.; Walls, C.; Mann, Dorte; Gottas, D.J.; Coleman, T.

    2013-01-01

    During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. In order to improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, is required. Here we describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue – water management – in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most severe wintertime storms.

  7. Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

    2014-12-23

    Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  8. Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace I. Davies

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  9. Aerosol climatology and planetary boundary influence at the Jungfraujoch analyzed by synoptic weather types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Collaud Coen

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Fourteen years of meteorological parameters, aerosol variables (absorption and scattering coefficients, aerosol number concentration and trace gases (CO, NOx, SO2 measured at the Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l. have been analyzed as a function of different synoptic weather types. The Schüepp synoptic weather type of the Alps (SYNALP classification from the Alpine Weather Statistics (AWS was used to define the synoptic meteorology over the whole Swiss region. The seasonal contribution of each synoptic weather type to the aerosol concentration was deduced from the aerosol annual cycles while the planetary boundary layer (PBL influence was estimated by means of the diurnal cycles. Since aerosols are scavenged by precipitation, the diurnal cycle of the CO concentration was also used to identify polluted air masses. SO2 and NOx concentrations were used as precursor tracers for new particle formation and growth, respectively. The aerosol optical parameters and number concentration show elevated loadings during advective weather types during the December–March period and for the convective anticyclonic and convective indifferent weather types during the April–September period. This study confirms the consensus view that the JFJ is mainly influenced by the free troposphere during winter and by injection of air parcels from the PBL during summer. A more detailed picture is, however, drawn where the JFJ is completely influenced by free tropospheric air masses in winter during advective weather types and largely influenced by the PBL also during the night in summer during the subsidence weather type. Between these two extreme situations, the PBL influence at the JFJ depends on both the time of year and the synoptic weather type. The fraction of PBL air transported to the JFJ was estimated by the relative increase of the specific humidity and CO.

  10. Predictability of extreme weather events for NE U.S.: improvement of the numerical prediction using a Bayesian regression approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Kallos, G. B.

    2015-12-01

    Weather prediction accuracy has become very important for the Northeast U.S. given the devastating effects of extreme weather events in the recent years. Weather forecasting systems are used towards building strategies to prevent catastrophic losses for human lives and the environment. Concurrently, weather forecast tools and techniques have evolved with improved forecast skill as numerical prediction techniques are strengthened by increased super-computing resources. In this study, we examine the combination of two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) by utilizing a Bayesian regression approach to improve the prediction of extreme weather events for NE U.S. The basic concept behind the Bayesian regression approach is to take advantage of the strengths of two atmospheric modeling systems and, similar to the multi-model ensemble approach, limit their weaknesses which are related to systematic and random errors in the numerical prediction of physical processes. The first part of this study is focused on retrospective simulations of seventeen storms that affected the region in the period 2004-2013. Optimal variances are estimated by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to out-of-sample weather events. The applicability and usefulness of this approach are demonstrated by conducting an error analysis based on in-situ observations from meteorological stations of the National Weather Service (NWS) for wind speed and wind direction, and NCEP Stage IV radar data, mosaicked from the regional multi-sensor for precipitation. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of the modeled-observed pairs for meteorological variables using various combinations of the sixteen events as predictors of the seventeenth. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained results for wind speed, wind direction and precipitation, as well as set the research steps that will be

  11. No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka H Malinowska

    Full Text Available Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i trends in distribution patterns, (ii the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity, or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat. Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest.

  12. Insurance as an adaptation strategy for extreme weather events indeveloping countries and economies in transition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Evan

    2004-06-30

    The insurance industry can play a material role indecreasing the vulnerability of developing countries and economies intransition to weather-related natural disasters while simultaneouslysupporting both its own market-based objectives and the objectives ofsustainable development. Although insurance is not a "silver bullet" forthe problems posed by natural disasters in emerging markets,public-private partnerships can enhance insurance's ability to spread therisks and manage the costs of weather-related disasters as well as toincrease the pool of people who have access to coverage. (For simplicityin this report, the phrase "emerging markets" is intended to encompassdeveloping countries and economies in transition.) Promising strategiesfor emerging markets involve establishing innovative products and systemsfor delivering insurance and using technologies and practices that bothreduce vulnerability to disaster-related insurance losses and supportsustainable development (including reducing greenhouse gas emissions).These strategies can enhance sustainable development efforts and increasethe insurability of risks, making insurance markets in emerging marketsmore viable. Emerging markets are especially vulnerable to extremeweather events, which impede development by causing physical damage,compromising human and ecosystem health, diverting scarce resources todisaster relief and recovery, and deterring future investment andinsurance availability by amplifying the risks faced by foreigninterests. An average of 300 million people are affected or killed eachyear by weather-related disasters in emerging markets. Characteristics ofemerging markets contributing to their particular vulnerability incontrast to developed nations include: greater frequency of poverty;weaker lifelines (transportation, communication, utilities, emergencyresponse, and hospitals); poorer quality of construction and absence ofor deficiencies in building codes and other regulations; and

  13. STATISTICAL INFLUENCE OF LOCAL WEATHER ON CARDIOVASCULAR MORTALITY IN HUNGARY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. MIKA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Possible effects of weather anomalies on mortality in cardiovascular illnesses are investigated in Hungary. Long-term (1971-2005 archives of ca. 2.0 million fatalities are analyzed. The mortality data are individually opposed to seven diurnal meteorological parameters, i.e. the mean, maxima and minima of temperature, cloudiness, wind speed, relative humidity and sea-level pressure. All investigations are performed for Budapest, with ca. 2 million urban dwellers, and for the rest of the county (the ‘rural’, representing over 8 million inhabitants in average of the 35 investigated years. The results support the decreasing (in winter and increasing (in summer effect of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in the rural environment, but this effect is not evident in summer for Budapest. Statistical effects of the other weather variables are less unequivocal.

  14. Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesk, Corey; Rowhani, Pedram; Ramankutty, Navin

    2016-01-07

    In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.

  15. Evaluating aerosol impacts on Numerical Weather Prediction in two extreme dust and biomass-burning events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, Samuel; Benedetti, Angela; Jones, Luke; Razinger, Miha; Haiden, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    The WMO-sponsored Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) set up a project aimed at understanding the importance of aerosols for numerical weather prediction (NWP). Three cases are being investigated by several NWP centres with aerosol capabilities: a severe dust case that affected Southern Europe in April 2012, a biomass burning case in South America in September 2012, and an extreme pollution event in Beijing (China) which took place in January 2013. At ECMWF these cases are being studied using the MACC-II system with radiatively interactive aerosols. Some preliminary results related to the dust and the fire event will be presented here. A preliminary verification of the impact of the aerosol-radiation direct interaction on surface meteorological parameters such as 2m Temperature and surface winds over the region of interest will be presented. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) verification using AERONET data will also be discussed. For the biomass burning case, the impact of using injection heights estimated by a Plume Rise Model (PRM) for the biomass burning emissions will be presented.

  16. Verification of ensemble forecasts of Mediterranean high-impact weather events against satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Chaboureau

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts at kilometre scale of two severe storms over the Mediterranean region are verified against satellite observations. In complement to assessing the forecasts against ground-based measurements, brightness temperature (BT images are computed from forecast fields and directly compared to BTs observed from satellite. The so-called model-to-satellite approach is very effective in identifying systematic errors in the prediction of cloud cover for BTs in the infrared window and in verifying the forecasted convective activity with BTs in the microwave range. This approach is combined with the calculation of meteorological scores for an objective evaluation of ensemble forecasts. The application of the approach is shown in the context of two Mediterranean case studies, a tropical-like storm and a heavy precipitating event. Assessment of cloud cover and convective activity using satellite observations in the infrared (10.8 μm and microwave regions (183–191 GHz provides results consistent with other traditional methods using rainfall measurements. In addition, for the tropical-like storm, differences among forecasts occur much earlier in terms of cloud cover and deep convective activity than they do in terms of deepening and track. Further, the underdispersion of the ensemble forecasts of the two high-impact weather events is easily identified with satellite diagnostics. This suggests that such an approach could be a useful method for verifying ensemble forecasts, particularly in data-sparse regions.

  17. The First Documented Space Weather Event That Perturbed the Communication Networks in Iberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, P.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.; Trigo, R. M.

    2016-07-01

    In this work, we review the first space weather event that affected significantly a number of communication networks in the Iberian Peninsula (Southwest of Europe). The event took place on 31 October 1903, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 14 (the lowest since the Dalton Minimum). We describe the widespread problems that occurred in the telegraph communication network in two midlatitude countries (Portugal and Spain), that was practically interrupted from 09 h30 to 21 h00 UT. Different impacts on the telegraphic communication are described and shown to be dependent on the large-scale orientation of the wires. In order to put these results into a wider context we provide measurements of the concurrent geomagnetic field that are available from the observatories of Coimbra (Portugal) and San Fernando (Spain). The measurements confirm the simultaneous occurrence of large geomagnetic disturbances. In particular, the magnetograms recorded in Coimbra show a clear and large amplitude storm sudden commencement around 05 h30. The main phase, with a H (horizontal component of geomagnetic field) maximum range of ~500 nT, started approximately 1 h later and lasted for almost 10 h, suggesting that the interplanetary magnetic field was strongly southward for long time.

  18. A hypothesis on nanodust as a source of energy for extreme weather events and climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkovich, Simon

    2013-03-01

    There are many phenomena that attract energy, the source of which cannot be unerringly identified. Among those are: excess heat alleged to nuclear processes, sonoluminescence, wire fragmentation under high voltage pulses, diverse biophysical experiences, and some atmospheric effects, like ball lightning and terrestrial gamma rays. Destructive atmospheric events associated with intense air movements, such as hurricanes and tornadoes, expend huge amounts of energy equivalent to very many nuclear bombs. Our paper indicates a possibility for a new source of energy due to the so-called ``hot-clocking'' effect related to the holographic mechanism of the Universe that establishes the exclusive property of nonlocality. This may uncover energy in various unusual appearances, particularly, in the suspected trend of global warming as a direct contribution to the extreme weather events. The surmised clocking impacts from holographic reference beam can reveal themselves through gaseous aerosols and suspended contaminants that may have been increased with human technogenesis. According to recent EPRI report nanopowder for Ni-Pd alloys in the size range of 5-10 nm was found to cause small amounts of excess power, about 4 watt per gram. So, using a minimal norm of contamination (20 micrograms per cubic meter) as an approximate guide, we could estimate that the whole atmosphere would thus generate dozens of terawatts, a contribution comparable to that of the Sun.

  19. AgroClimate: Simulating and Monitoring the Risk of Extreme Weather Events from a Crop Phenology Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraisse, C.; Pequeno, D.; Staub, C. G.; Perry, C.

    2016-12-01

    Climate variability, particularly the occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as dry spells and heat stress during sensitive crop developmental phases can substantially increase the prospect of reduced crop yields. Yield losses or crop failure risk due to stressful weather conditions vary mainly due to stress severity and exposure time and duration. The magnitude of stress effects is also crop specific, differing in terms of thresholds and adaptation to environmental conditions. To help producers in the Southeast USA mitigate and monitor the risk of crop losses due to extreme weather events we developed a web-based tool that evaluates the risk of extreme weather events during the season taking into account the crop development stages. Producers can enter their plans for the upcoming season in a given field (e.g. crop, variety, planting date, acreage etc.), select or not a specific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, and will be presented with the probabilities (ranging from 0 -100%) of extreme weather events occurring during sensitive phases of the growing season for the selected conditions. The DSSAT models CERES-Maize, CROPGRO-Soybean, CROPGRO-Cotton, and N-Wheat phenology models have been translated from FORTRAN to a standalone versions in R language. These models have been tested in collaboration with Extension faculty and producers during the 2016 season and their usefulness for risk mitigation and monitoring evaluated. A companion AgroClimate app was also developed to help producers track and monitor phenology development during the cropping season.

  20. Oxidative Weathering of Archean Sulfides: Implications for the Great Oxidation Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, A.; Romaniello, S. J.; Reinhard, C.; Garcia-Robledo, E.; Revsbech, N. P.; Canfield, D. E.; Lyons, T. W.; Anbar, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    The first widely accepted evidence for oxidation of Earth's atmosphere and oceans occurs ~2.45 Ga immediately prior to the Great Oxidation Event (GOE). A major line of evidence for this transition includes the abundances and isotopic variations of redox-sensitive transition metals in marine sediments (e.g., Fe, Mo, Re, Cr, and U). It is often assumed that oxidative weathering is required to liberate these redox-sensitive elements from sulfide minerals in the crust, and hence that their presence in early Archean marine sediments signifies that oxidative weathering was stimulated by small and/or transient "whiffs" of O2 in the environment.1 However, studies of crustal sulfide reactivity have not been conducted at O2 concentrations as low as those that would have prevailed when O2 began its rise during the late Archean (estimated at consumed dissolved O2 in a range of pH-buffered solutions.3Our data extend the range of experimental pyrite oxidation rates in the literature by three orders of magnitude from ~10-3 present atmospheric O2 to ~10-6. We find that molybdenite and pyrite oxidation continues to law and reaction order of pyrite oxidation kinetics change significantly at nanomolar concentrations of O2 when compared to previous compilations.2 Our results provide new empirical data that should allow for more precise quantitative constraints on atmospheric pO2 based on the sedimentary rock record. 1Anbar, A.D. et al., 2007. Science, 317, i. 5846: 1903-1906. 2Williamson & Rimstidt, 1994. Geochim. et Cosmochim. Acta, 58, n. 24: 5443-5454. 3Lehner et al., 2015. PLoS ONE, 10, n. 6: 1-15.

  1. An analysis of high-impact, low-predictive skill severe weather events in the northeast U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Matthew T.

    An objective evaluation of Storm Prediction Center slight risk convective outlooks, as well as a method to identify high-impact severe weather events with poor-predictive skill are presented in this study. The objectives are to assess severe weather forecast skill over the northeast U.S. relative to the continental U.S., build a climatology of high-impact, low-predictive skill events between 1980--2013, and investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic differences between severe weather events with low-predictive skill and high-predictive skill over the northeast U.S. Severe storm reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes are used to calculate skill scores including probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and threat scores (TS) for each convective outlook. Low predictive skill events are binned into low POD (type 1) and high FAR (type 2) categories to assess temporal variability of low-predictive skill events. Type 1 events were found to occur in every year of the dataset with an average of 6 events per year. Type 2 events occur less frequently and are more common in the earlier half of the study period. An event-centered composite analysis is performed on the low-predictive skill database using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis 0.5° gridded dataset to analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions prior to high-impact severe weather events with varying predictive skill. Deep-layer vertical shear between 1000--500 hPa is found to be a significant discriminator in slight risk forecast skill where high-impact events with less than 31-kt shear have lower threat scores than high-impact events with higher shear values. Case study analysis of type 1 events suggests the environment over which severe weather occurs is characterized by high downdraft convective available potential energy, steep low-level lapse rates, and high lifting condensation level heights that contribute to an elevated risk of severe wind.

  2. Communicating and managing change during extreme weather events: promising practices for responding to urgent and emergent climate threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Tim L

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale weather events in the USA such as hurricanes Sandy, Isaac and Katrina challenge traditional approaches to change communication and management (CCM) before during and after crises. A major challenge (as well as opportunity) is addressing change from the 'whole-community' perspective affecting a spectrum of people, policies, processes, behaviours and outcomes. When CCM is used effectively, one of its fundamental advantages is creating a sense of urgency. This paper looks at optimising communication during extreme weather events, engaging stakeholders, harnessing the power of social media and change, and correlating organisational and individual behaviours and actions. The strategic blend of change management and crisis communication strategies and tactics in CCM is a central feature in the response to the full range of extreme weather scenarios.

  3. Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

    2010-12-01

    Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

  4. Interpreting Climate Model Projections of Extreme Weather Events for Decision Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrus, S. J.; Notaro, M.

    2014-12-01

    The proliferation of output from climate model ensembles, such as CMIP3 and CMIP5, has greatly expanded access to future projections, but there is no accepted blueprint for how this data should be interpreted. Decision makers are thus faced with difficult questions when trying to utilize such information: How reliable are the multi-model mean projections? How should the changes simulated by outlier models be treated? How can raw projections of temperature and precipitation be translated into probabilities? The multi-model average is often regarded as the most accurate single estimate of future conditions, but higher-order moments representing the variance and skewness of the distribution of projections provide important information about uncertainty. We have analyzed a set of statistically downscaled climate model projections from the CMIP3 archive to conduct an assessment of extreme weather events at a level designed to be relevant for decision makers. Our analysis uses the distribution of 13 GCM projections to derive the inter-model standard deviation (and coefficient of variation, COV), skewness, and percentile ranges for simulated changes in extreme heat, cold, and precipitation during the middle and late 21st century for the A1B emissions scenario. These metrics help to establish the overall confidence level across the entire range of projections (via the inter-model COV), relative confidence in the simulated high-end versus low-end changes (via skewness), and probabilistic uncertainty bounds derived from a bootstrapping technique. Over our analysis domain centered on the United States Midwest, some primary findings include: (1) Greater confidence in projections of less extreme cold than more extreme heat and intense precipitation, (2) Greater confidence in the low-end than high-end projections of extreme heat, and (3) Higher spatial and temporal variability in the confidence of projected increases of heavy precipitation. In addition, our bootstrapping

  5. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez L, D, E-mail: dlopez@centrogeo.org.m [Centro de Investigacion en GeografIa y Geomatica, Ing. Jorge L. Tamayo A.C., Contoy 137, col. Lomas de Padierna, del Tlalpan, Maxico D.F (Mexico)

    2009-11-01

    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  6. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

    2001-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

  7. Evaluation of environmental fate and sinks of PCDD/Fs during specific extreme weather events in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Kai Hsien; Lin, Chuan-Yao; Ou Yang, Chang-Feng; Hsu, Shih Chieh; Chen, Ya Fang; Luo, Shangde; Kao, Shuh Ji

    2013-11-01

    Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) are persistent organic pollutants (POPs) that are formed and released unintentionally from anthropogenic sources. The high persistence of PCDD/Fs results in the concentrations of these contaminants in environment decreasing only very slowly. Two transport pathways, air and water, carry PCDD/Fs into all regions of the world. Recently, more frequent extreme weather events, such as storms and floods, have been projected to occur as a result of global warming. Extreme weather events have a documented impact on the remobilization and subsequent bioavailability of POPs. In this study, three specific episodes, namely winter monsoon, southeast biomass burning and tropical cyclone (typhoon) events, which influence the environmental fate and transport of PCDD/Fs in Taiwan, were evaluated based on a climate change scenario. During the winter (northeast) monsoon period, the temperature and relative humidity observed in northern Taiwan decreases sharply. During this time, the quantity of PCDD/Fs adsorbed onto suspended particles, as observed at background sites, was found to increase from 300 ± 127 to 630 ± 115 pg I-TEQ g-TSP-1, which is even higher than that measured in Taipei City (438 ± 80 pg I-TEQ g-TSP-1). Hence, the winter monsoon not only brings cold air but also transports air pollutants and dust over long distances from mainland China to Taiwan. During the 2010 Southeast Asia biomass burning events (2010/3/22-3/28), the level of atmospheric PCDD/Fs were measured in central Taiwan (Mt. Lulin) and in the source region of northern Thailand (Chiang Mai); this revealed that the variations in atmospheric PCDD/F concentrations at these two sites followed a similar pattern. On 25 March 2010, the atmospheric PCDD/F concentration increased dramatically from 1.43 to 6.09 fg I-TEQ m-3 at Mt. Lulin and from 7.64 to 12.1 fg I-TEQ m-3 in northern Thailand. However, the atmospheric PCDD

  8. The influence of adverse weather conditions on probability of congestion on dutch motorways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stralen, W.J.H. van; Calvert, S.C.; Molin, E.J.E.

    2015-01-01

    Weather conditions are widely acknowledged to contribute to the occurrence of congestion on motorway traffic by influencing both traffic supply and traffic demand. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that explicitly integrates supply and demand effects in predicting the influence

  9. The influence of adverse weather conditions on probability of congestion on dutch motorways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Stralen, W.J.H.; Calvert, S.C.; Molin, E.J.E.

    2015-01-01

    Weather conditions are widely acknowledged to contribute to the occurrence of congestion on motorway traffic by influencing both traffic supply and traffic demand. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that explicitly integrates supply and demand effects in predicting the influence o

  10. Investigating Massive Dust Events Using a Coupled Weather-Chemistry Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raman, A.; Arellano, A. F.

    2012-12-01

    Prediction of local to regional scale dust events is challenging due to the complex nature of key processes driving emission, transport, and deposition of mineral dust. In particular, it is difficult to map precisely the sources of mineral dust across heterogeneous land surface properties and land-use changes. This is especially true for Arizona haboobs. These dust storm events are typically driven by thunderstorms and down-bursts over arid regions generating high atmospheric loading of dust in the order of hundreds to thousands of microgram per cubic meter. Modeling and prediction of these events are further complicated by the limitations in satellite-derived and in-situ measurements of dust and related geophysical variables. Here, we investigate the capability of a coupled weather-chemistry model in predicting Arizona haboobs. In particular, this research focuses on the simulation of July 5, 2011 Phoenix haboob using Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport Model (GOCART) dust scheme. We evaluate the ability of WRF-Chem in simulating the haboob using satellite retrievals of aerosol extinction properties and mass concentrations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite (CALIPSO) and high resolution SEVIRI false color dust product, in conjunction with in-situ PM10 and PM2.5 measurements. The study uses a nested modeling domain covering Utah, California and Arizona at a horizontal resolution of 5.4 km (outer) and 1.8 km (inner). Boundary conditions for the model are obtained from NOAA Global Forecasting System six-hourly forecast. We present results illustrating the key features of the haboobs, such as the cold pools and surface wind speeds driving the horizontal and vertical structure of the dust, as well as the patterns of dust transport and deposition. Although the spatio-temporal patterns of the haboob

  11. Identifying biologically meaningful hot-weather events using threshold temperatures that affect life-history.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan J Cunningham

    Full Text Available Increases in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves are frequently evoked in climate change predictions. However, there is no universal definition of a heat wave. Recent, intense hot weather events have caused mass mortalities of birds, bats and even humans, making the definition and prediction of heat wave events that have the potential to impact populations of different species an urgent priority. One possible technique for defining biologically meaningful heat waves is to use threshold temperatures (T(thresh above which known fitness costs are incurred by species of interest. We set out to test the utility of this technique using T(thresh values that, when exceeded, affect aspects of the fitness of two focal southern African bird species: the southern pied babbler Turdiodes bicolor (T(thresh = 35.5 °C and the common fiscal Lanius collaris (T(thresh = 33 °C. We used these T(thresh values to analyse trends in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves of magnitude relevant to the focal species, as well as the annual number of hot days (maximum air temperature > T(thresh, in north-western South Africa between 1961 and 2010. Using this technique, we were able to show that, while all heat wave indices increased during the study period, most rapid increases for both species were in the annual number of hot days and in the maximum intensity (and therefore intensity variance of biologically meaningful heat waves. Importantly, we also showed that warming trends were not uniform across the study area and that geographical patterns in warming allowed both areas of high risk and potential climate refugia to be identified. We discuss the implications of the trends we found for our focal species, and the utility of the T(thresh technique as a conservation tool.

  12. Identifying biologically meaningful hot-weather events using threshold temperatures that affect life-history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Susan J; Kruger, Andries C; Nxumalo, Mthobisi P; Hockey, Philip A R

    2013-01-01

    Increases in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves are frequently evoked in climate change predictions. However, there is no universal definition of a heat wave. Recent, intense hot weather events have caused mass mortalities of birds, bats and even humans, making the definition and prediction of heat wave events that have the potential to impact populations of different species an urgent priority. One possible technique for defining biologically meaningful heat waves is to use threshold temperatures (T(thresh)) above which known fitness costs are incurred by species of interest. We set out to test the utility of this technique using T(thresh) values that, when exceeded, affect aspects of the fitness of two focal southern African bird species: the southern pied babbler Turdiodes bicolor (T(thresh) = 35.5 °C) and the common fiscal Lanius collaris (T(thresh) = 33 °C). We used these T(thresh) values to analyse trends in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves of magnitude relevant to the focal species, as well as the annual number of hot days (maximum air temperature > T(thresh)), in north-western South Africa between 1961 and 2010. Using this technique, we were able to show that, while all heat wave indices increased during the study period, most rapid increases for both species were in the annual number of hot days and in the maximum intensity (and therefore intensity variance) of biologically meaningful heat waves. Importantly, we also showed that warming trends were not uniform across the study area and that geographical patterns in warming allowed both areas of high risk and potential climate refugia to be identified. We discuss the implications of the trends we found for our focal species, and the utility of the T(thresh) technique as a conservation tool.

  13. Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

    2013-12-01

    Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban

  14. Hypothetical scenario exercises to improve planning and readiness for drinking water quality management during extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Cunliffe, David; Khan, Stuart J

    2017-03-15

    Two hypothetical scenario exercises were designed and conducted to reflect the increasingly extreme weather-related challenges faced by water utilities as the global climate changes. The first event was based on an extreme flood scenario. The second scenario involved a combination of weather events, including a wild forest fire ('bushfire') followed by runoff due to significant rainfall. For each scenario, a panel of diverse personnel from water utilities and relevant agencies (e.g. health departments) formed a hypothetical water utility and associated regulatory body to manage water quality following the simulated extreme weather event. A larger audience participated by asking questions and contributing key insights. Participants were confronted with unanticipated developments as the simulated scenarios unfolded, introduced by a facilitator. Participants were presented with information that may have challenged their conventional experiences regarding operational procedures in order to identify limitations in current procedures, assumptions, and readily available information. The process worked toward the identification of a list of specific key lessons for each event. At the conclusion of each simulation a facilitated discussion was used to establish key lessons of value to water utilities in preparing them for similar future extreme events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A

    2015-11-06

    Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions.

  16. The demographic impact of extreme events: stochastic weather drives survival and population dynamics in a long-lived seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederiksen, M; Daunt, F; Harris, M P; Wanless, S

    2008-09-01

    1. Most scenarios for future climate change predict increased variability and thus increased frequency of extreme weather events. To predict impacts of climate change on wild populations, we need to understand whether this translates into increased variability in demographic parameters, which would lead to reduced population growth rates even without a change in mean parameter values. This requires robust estimates of temporal process variance, for example in survival, and identification of weather covariates linked to interannual variability. 2. The European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis (L.) shows unusually large variability in population size, and large-scale mortality events have been linked to winter gales. We estimated first-year, second-year and adult survival based on 43 years of ringing and dead recovery data from the Isle of May, Scotland, using recent methods to quantify temporal process variance and identify aspects of winter weather linked to survival. 3. Survival was highly variable for all age groups, and for second-year and adult birds process variance declined strongly when the most extreme year was excluded. Survival in these age groups was low in winters with strong onshore winds and high rainfall. Variation in first-year survival was not related to winter weather, and process variance, although high, was less affected by extreme years. A stochastic population model showed that increasing process variance in survival would lead to reduced population growth rate and increasing probability of extinction. 4. As in other cormorants, shag plumage is only partially waterproof, presumably an adaptation to highly efficient underwater foraging. We speculate that this adaptation may make individuals vulnerable to rough winter weather, leading to boom-and-bust dynamics, where rapid population growth under favourable conditions allows recovery from periodic large-scale weather-related mortality. 5. Given that extreme weather events are predicted to become

  17. The influence of weather on the thermal performance of solar heating systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon; Shah, Louise Jivan

    2003-01-01

    The influence of weather on the thermal performance of solar combi systems, solar domestic hot water systems and solar heating plants is investigated. The investigation is based on weather data from the Danish Design Reference Year, DRY and weather data measured for a period from 1990 until 2002....... The investigation is based on calculations with validated models. Solar heating systems with different solar collector types, heat storage volumes and solar fractions are included in the investigation. The yearly solar radiation varies with approximately 20 % in the period from 1990 until 2002. The calculations...... show that the thermal performance of the investigated systems varies due to the weather variation. The variation of the yearly thermal performance of a solar heating plant is about 40 % while the variation of the yearly thermal performance of a solar domestic hot water system is about 30...

  18. Investigating Subjective Experience and the Influence of Weather Among Individuals With Fibromyalgia: A Content Analysis of Twitter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Yong-Bin; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Burstein, Frada; Whittle, Samuel

    2017-01-01

    Background Little is understood about the determinants of symptom expression in individuals with fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS). While individuals with FMS often report environmental influences, including weather events, on their symptom severity, a consistent effect of specific weather conditions on FMS symptoms has yet to be demonstrated. Content analysis of a large number of messages by individuals with FMS on Twitter can provide valuable insights into variation in the fibromyalgia experience from a first-person perspective. Objective The objective of our study was to use content analysis of tweets to investigate the association between weather conditions and fibromyalgia symptoms among individuals who tweet about fibromyalgia. Our second objective was to gain insight into how Twitter is used as a form of communication and expression by individuals with fibromyalgia and to explore and uncover thematic clusters and communities related to weather. Methods Computerized sentiment analysis was performed to measure the association between negative sentiment scores (indicative of severe symptoms such as pain) and coincident environmental variables. Date, time, and location data for each individual tweet were used to identify corresponding climate data (such as temperature). We used graph analysis to investigate the frequency and distribution of domain-related terms exchanged in Twitter and their association strengths. A community detection algorithm was applied to partition the graph and detect different communities. Results We analyzed 140,432 tweets related to fibromyalgia from 2008 to 2014. There was a very weak positive correlation between humidity and negative sentiment scores (r=.009, P=.001). There was no significant correlation between other environmental variables and negative sentiment scores. The graph analysis showed that “pain” and “chronicpain” were the most frequently used terms. The Louvain method identified 6 communities. Community 1 was related

  19. Investigating Subjective Experience and the Influence of Weather Among Individuals With Fibromyalgia: A Content Analysis of Twitter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delir Haghighi, Pari; Kang, Yong-Bin; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Burstein, Frada; Whittle, Samuel

    2017-01-19

    Little is understood about the determinants of symptom expression in individuals with fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS). While individuals with FMS often report environmental influences, including weather events, on their symptom severity, a consistent effect of specific weather conditions on FMS symptoms has yet to be demonstrated. Content analysis of a large number of messages by individuals with FMS on Twitter can provide valuable insights into variation in the fibromyalgia experience from a first-person perspective. The objective of our study was to use content analysis of tweets to investigate the association between weather conditions and fibromyalgia symptoms among individuals who tweet about fibromyalgia. Our second objective was to gain insight into how Twitter is used as a form of communication and expression by individuals with fibromyalgia and to explore and uncover thematic clusters and communities related to weather. Computerized sentiment analysis was performed to measure the association between negative sentiment scores (indicative of severe symptoms such as pain) and coincident environmental variables. Date, time, and location data for each individual tweet were used to identify corresponding climate data (such as temperature). We used graph analysis to investigate the frequency and distribution of domain-related terms exchanged in Twitter and their association strengths. A community detection algorithm was applied to partition the graph and detect different communities. We analyzed 140,432 tweets related to fibromyalgia from 2008 to 2014. There was a very weak positive correlation between humidity and negative sentiment scores (r=.009, P=.001). There was no significant correlation between other environmental variables and negative sentiment scores. The graph analysis showed that "pain" and "chronicpain" were the most frequently used terms. The Louvain method identified 6 communities. Community 1 was related to feelings and symptoms at the time

  20. Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004-08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yumul, Graciano P; Cruz, Nathaniel A; Servando, Nathaniel T; Dimalanta, Carla B

    2011-04-01

    Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.

  1. Planetary boundary influence at the Jungfraujoch analyzed by aerosol cycles and synoptic weather types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Collaud Coen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Fourteen years of meteorological parameters, aerosol variables (absorption and scattering coefficients, aerosol number concentration and trace gases (CO, NOx, SO2 measured at the Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l. have been analyzed as a function of different synoptic weather types. The Alpine Weather Statistics (AWS classification was used to define the synoptic meteorology over the whole Swiss region. The seasonal contribution of each synoptic weather type to the aerosol concentration was deduced from the aerosol annual cycles while the planetary boundary layer (PBL influence was estimated by means of the diurnal cycles. Since aerosols are scavenged by precipitation, the diurnal cycle of the CO concentration was also used to identify polluted air masses. SO2 and NOx concentrations were used as precursor tracers for new particle formation and growth. This study confirms the consensus view that the JFJ is mainly influenced by the free troposphere during winter and by injection of air parcels from the PBL during summer. A more detailed picture is, however, drawn where the JFJ is completely influenced by free tropospheric air masses in winter during advective weather types and largely influenced by the PBL also during the night in summer during the subsidence weather type. Between these two extreme situations, the PBL influence at the JFJ depends on both the time of year and the synoptic weather type. The fraction of PBL air transported to the JFJ was estimated by the relative increase of the specific humidity and CO.

  2. Space Weather Influence on the Earth wheat markets: past, present, and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pustil'Nik, Lev

    We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agriculture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works (I, II) included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the question, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predominant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low

  3. Influencer events in episode rules: a way to impact the occurrence of events

    OpenAIRE

    Fahed, Lina; Brun, Armelle; Boyer, Anne

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Episode rules are event patterns mined from a single event sequence. They are mainly used to predict the occurrence of events (the consequent of the rule), once the antecedent has occurred. The occurrence of the consequent of a rule may however be disturbed by the occurrence of another event in the sequence (that does not belong to the antecedent). We refer such an event to as an influencer event. To the best of our knowledge, the identification of such events in the c...

  4. Do weather changes influence pain levels in women with fibromyalgia, and can psychosocial variables moderate these influences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smedslund, Geir; Eide, Hilde; Kristjansdottir, Ólöf Birna; Nes, Andrea Aparecida Gonçalves; Sexton, Harold; Fors, Egil A.

    2014-09-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the association between fibromyalgia pain and weather, and to investigate whether psychosocial factors influence this relationship. Women with chronic widespread pain/fibromyalgia ( N = 50) enrolled in a larger study, were recruited from a 4-week inpatient rehabilitation program in Norway ( 2009-2010), and reported their pain and psychological factors up to three times per day (morning, afternoon, evening) for 5 weeks. These ratings were then related to the official local weather parameters. Barometric pressure recorded simultaneously impacted pain significantly while temperature, relative humidity, and solar flux did not. No psychological variables influenced the weather-pain interaction. No weather parameter predicted change in the subsequent pain measures. The magnitude of the inverse association between pain and barometric pressure was very small, and none of the psychological variables studied influenced the association between pain and barometric pressure. All in all, the evidence for a strong weather-pain association in fibromyalgia seems limited at best.

  5. Damaging events along roads during bad weather periods: a case study in Calabria (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrucci, O.; Pasqua, A. A.

    2012-02-01

    The study focuses on circumstances that affect people during periods of bad weather conditions characterised by winds, rainfall, landslides, flooding, and storm surges. A methodological approach and its application to a study area in southern Italy are presented here. A 10-yr database was generated by mining data from a newspaper. Damaging agents were sorted into five types: flood, urban flooding, landslide, wind, and storm surge. Damage to people occurred in 126 cases, causing 13 victims, 129 injured and about 782 people involved but not injured. For cases of floods, urban flooding and landslides, the analysis does not highlight straightforward relationships between rainfall and damage to people, even if the events showed different features according to the months of occurrence. The events occurring between May and October were characterised by concentrated and intense rainfall, and between May and July, the highest values of hourly (103 mm on the average) and monthly rainfall (114 mm on the average) were recorded. Urban flooding and flash floods were the most common damaging agents: injured, involved people and more rarely, cases with victims were reported. Between November and April, the highest number of events was recorded. Rainfall presented longer durations and hourly and sub-hourly rainfall were lower than those recorded between May and October. Landslides were the most frequent damaging agents but the highest number of cases with victims, which occurred between November and January, were mainly related to floods and urban flooding. Motorists represent the totality of the victims; 84% of the people were injured and the whole of people involved. All victims were men, and the average age was 43 yr. The primary cause of death was drowning caused by floods, and the second was trauma suffered in car accidents caused by urban flooding. The high number of motorists rescued in submerged cars reveals an underestimation of danger in the case of floods, often

  6. Damaging events along roads during bad weather periods: a case study in Calabria (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Petrucci

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The study focuses on circumstances that affect people during periods of bad weather conditions characterised by winds, rainfall, landslides, flooding, and storm surges. A methodological approach and its application to a study area in southern Italy are presented here. A 10-yr database was generated by mining data from a newspaper. Damaging agents were sorted into five types: flood, urban flooding, landslide, wind, and storm surge. Damage to people occurred in 126 cases, causing 13 victims, 129 injured and about 782 people involved but not injured.

    For cases of floods, urban flooding and landslides, the analysis does not highlight straightforward relationships between rainfall and damage to people, even if the events showed different features according to the months of occurrence. The events occurring between May and October were characterised by concentrated and intense rainfall, and between May and July, the highest values of hourly (103 mm on the average and monthly rainfall (114 mm on the average were recorded. Urban flooding and flash floods were the most common damaging agents: injured, involved people and more rarely, cases with victims were reported.

    Between November and April, the highest number of events was recorded. Rainfall presented longer durations and hourly and sub-hourly rainfall were lower than those recorded between May and October. Landslides were the most frequent damaging agents but the highest number of cases with victims, which occurred between November and January, were mainly related to floods and urban flooding.

    Motorists represent the totality of the victims; 84% of the people were injured and the whole of people involved. All victims were men, and the average age was 43 yr. The primary cause of death was drowning caused by floods, and the second was trauma suffered in car accidents caused by urban flooding. The high number of motorists rescued in submerged cars reveals an underestimation of

  7. Influence of local calibration on the quality of online wet weather discharge monitoring: feedback from five international case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caradot, Nicolas; Sonnenberg, Hauke; Rouault, Pascale; Gruber, Günter; Hofer, Thomas; Torres, Andres; Pesci, Maria; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

    2015-01-01

    This paper reports about experiences gathered from five online monitoring campaigns in the sewer systems of Berlin (Germany), Graz (Austria), Lyon (France) and Bogota (Colombia) using ultraviolet-visible (UV-VIS) spectrometers and turbidimeters. Online probes are useful for the measurement of highly dynamic processes, e.g. combined sewer overflows (CSO), storm events, and river impacts. The influence of local calibration on the quality of online chemical oxygen demand (COD) measurements of wet weather discharges has been assessed. Results underline the need to establish local calibration functions for both UV-VIS spectrometers and turbidimeters. It is suggested that practitioners calibrate locally their probes using at least 15-20 samples. However, these samples should be collected over several events and cover most of the natural variability of the measured concentration. For this reason, the use of automatic peristaltic samplers in parallel to online monitoring is recommended with short representative sampling campaigns during wet weather discharges. Using reliable calibration functions, COD loads of CSO and storm events can be estimated with a relative uncertainty of approximately 20%. If no local calibration is established, concentrations and loads are estimated with a high error rate, questioning the reliability and meaning of the online measurement. Similar results have been obtained for total suspended solids measurements.

  8. A Classification of Event Sequences in the Influence Network

    CERN Document Server

    Walsh, James Lyons

    2016-01-01

    We build on the classification in [1] of event sequences in the influence network as respecting collinearity or not, so as to determine in future work what phenomena arise in each case. Collinearity enables each observer to uniquely associate each particle event of influencing with one of the observer's own events, even in the case of events of influencing the other observer. We further classify events as to whether they are spacetime events that obey in the fine-grained case the coarse-grained conditions of [2], finding that Newton's First and Second Laws of motion are obeyed at spacetime events. A proof of Newton's Third Law under particular circumstances is also presented.

  9. Origins of forecast skill of weather and climate events on verifiable time scales

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Verification of weather and seasonal forecasts, as well as the statistical analysis of the spatial and temporal description of forecast and observed fields, are necessary to improve on our understanding of the capabilities of models to describe...

  10. Vulnerability and adaptation to severe weather events in the American southwest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Boero

    2015-06-01

    In conclusion, our findings suggest that determinants of economic growth support lower vulnerability to the weather and increase options for financing adaptation and recovery policies, but also that only some communities are likely to benefit from those processes.

  11. Learning from today's extreme weather events to increase our resilience to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruin, I.; Lutoff, C.; Borga, M.; Creutin, J.-D.; Anquetin, S.; Gruntfest, E.; Scolobig, A.

    2009-04-01

    reflecting individuals and community responses to the crisis. Most of the time this information is hard to gather as no methodology has been developed for it. Social impacts of extreme weather event are related by public media during and shortly after the event. The impacts are documented by public agencies such as rescue services, medical care facilities, insurance companies in the limit of their respective missions and of their means. It appears during exceptional crises, the reporting, routinely done by these institutions, is made very difficult because the pace of rescue operations is too great (for example, almost 3000 people were rescued in one night during the September 2002 event). Social consequences are also partially summarized in the framework of official investigations led by state institutions after the crisis (see, for instance the report of Huet et al. (2003) in French). All in all, the resulting information appears to be fragmented and too heterogeneous to be used for statistical analysis and for monitoring long-term evolution of social vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The behavioral data collection is only possible in the framework of an organized partnership between scientists from different disciplines and operational services as national and European civil protection structures. An opportunity for settling this type of collaboration maybe find through existing structures as research observatories like the "Cévennes-Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory" (OHM-CV) located in Southern France and the "North-eastern Italy Hydrometeorological Observatory", located in NE Italy. These natural observatories stem from a research initiative aiming to understand intense Mediterranean storms that lead to devastating flash floods. A primary objective is to bring together the skills of meteorologists and hydrologists, model designers and experimentalists, researchers and practitioners to cope with these events that are so difficult to predict

  12. Interactions between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems: influence on weather and climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pielke, R.A.; Avissar, R.; Raupach, M.; Dolman, A.J.; Zeng, X.B.; Denning, A.S.

    1998-01-01

    This paper overviews the short-term (biophysical) and long-term tout to around 100 year timescales; biogeochemical and biogeographical) influences of the land surface on weather and climate. From our review of the literature, the evidence is convincing that terrestrial ecosystem dynamics on these

  13. Interactions between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems: influence on weather and climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pielke, R.A.; Avissar, R.; Raupach, M.; Dolman, A.J.; Zeng, X.B.; Denning, A.S.

    1998-01-01

    This paper overviews the short-term (biophysical) and long-term tout to around 100 year timescales; biogeochemical and biogeographical) influences of the land surface on weather and climate. From our review of the literature, the evidence is convincing that terrestrial ecosystem dynamics on these ti

  14. The influence of adverse weather conditions on the probability of congestion on Dutch motorways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Stralen, W.; Calvert, S.C.; Molin, E.J.E.

    2014-01-01

    Weather conditions are widely acknowledged to contribute to the occurrence of congestion on motorway traffic by influencing both traffic supply and traffic demand. However, to the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that explicitly integrates supply and demand effects in predicting the

  15. The influence of adverse weather conditions on the probability of congestion on Dutch motorways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Stralen, W.; Calvert, S.C.; Molin, E.J.E.

    2014-01-01

    Weather conditions are widely acknowledged to contribute to the occurrence of congestion on motorway traffic by influencing both traffic supply and traffic demand. However, to the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that explicitly integrates supply and demand effects in predicting the inf

  16. US CLIVAR Working Group: Arctic Change and Possible Influence on Mid-latitude Climate and Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, J. L.; Zhang, X.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent events of extreme weather across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, including extreme heat and rainfall events and recent severe winters. The possible link between Arctic change and mid-latitude weather has spurred a rush of new observational and modeling studies. These studies have argued that heavy precipitation events and heat waves are at least partially attributable to Arctic warming. A growing number of recent studies even argue that recent extreme winter weather is related to AA. In part due to the high impact of extreme weather on our society, some of these studies linking AA to the increased frequency of extreme weather have garnered public and media attention. At the same time, uncertainties from the large intrinsic variability of the system, the short observational record due to the recentness of AA and the shortcomings of global climate models have also resulted in much skepticism in any argued links between AA and severe weather. This in turn has resulted in a number of workshops trying to frame the problem and laying the groundwork to improve our understanding of Arctic-mid-latitude linkages and accurate attribution of extreme weather events. Although these workshops identified existing problems and difficulties, and provided broad recommendations, they did not synthesize the diversified research results to identify where community consensus and gaps exist. Therefore we have assembled many of the leading scientists researching Arctic-mid-latitude linkages as part of a US CLIVAR working group. Through the three-year efforts of this working group, we will use the outcome of the previous workshops and newly planned activities to guide the synthesis efforts, coordinate on-going research to fill out key gaps, and provide specific

  17. Space Weather Influence on the Earth Climate: Possible Manifestations in Wheat Markets Reaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pustilnik, Lev; Yom Din, Gregory; Zagnetko, Alexander

    We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agri-culture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial con-nections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simul-taneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the ques-tion, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predomi-nant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low

  18. Short-Range prediction of a Mediterranean Severe weather event using EnKF: Configuration tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrio Carrio, Diego Saul; Homar Santaner, Víctor

    2014-05-01

    The afternoon of 4th October 2007, severe damaging winds and torrential rainfall affected the Island of Mallorca. This storm produced F2-F3 tornadoes in the vicinity of Palma, with one person killed and estimated damages to property exceeding 10 M€. Several studies have analysed the meteorological context in which this episode unfolded, describing the formation of a train of multiple thunderstorms along a warm front and the evolution of a squall line organized from convective activity initiated offshore Murcia during that morning. Couhet et al. (2011) attributed the correct simulation of the convective system and particularly its organization as a squall line to the correct representation of a convergence line at low-levels over the Alboran Sea during the first hours of the day. The numerical prediction of mesoscale phenomena which initiates, organizes and evolves over the sea is an extremely demanding challenge of great importance for coastal regions. In this study, we investigate the skill of a mesoscale ensemble data assimilation system to predict the severe phenomena occurred on 4th October 2007. We use an Ensemble Kalman Filter which assimilates conventional (surface, radiosonde and AMDAR) data using the DART implementation from (NCAR). On the one hand, we analyse the potential of the assimilation cycle to advect critical observational data towards decisive data-void areas over the sea. Furthermore, we assess the sensitivity of the ensemble products to the ensemble size, grid resolution, assimilation period and physics diversity in the mesoscale model. In particular, we focus on the effect of these numerical configurations on the representation of the convective activity and the precipitation field, as valuable predictands of high impact weather. Results show that the 6-h EnKF assimilation period produces initial fields that successfully represent the environment in which initiation occurred and thus the derived numerical predictions render improved

  19. Designing Resilient and Productive Grasses with Plasticity to Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loka, D.; Humphreys, M.; Gwyn Jones, D.; Scullion, J.; Doonan, J.; Gasior, D.; Harper, J.; Farrell, M.; Kingston-Smith, A.; Dodd, R.; Chadwick, D.; Hill, P.; Robinson, D.; Jones, D.

    2016-12-01

    Grasslands occupy more than 70% of the world's agricultural land and are major providers of healthy feed for livestock and for ecosystem services. Global warming is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as drought and flooding and will reduce persistency of currently productive but stress sensitive forage grass varieties, thereby challenging global food security and compromising on their existing ecosystem functionality. New perennial grass varieties, tolerant to the onsets of more than one abiotic stresses, are required in order to achieve sustainable grassland production and function over years under adverse environmental conditions. Identifying and selecting reliable morphological and physiological traits associated with increased resistance to multiple stress conditions is a prerequisite to ensure future grasslands resilience. The objectives of our study were to select from diverse and novel Festulolium (ryegrass spp. x fescue spp. hybrids) grass populations capable of providing optimal combinations of good forage production together with resilience to multiple stresses and to monitor morphological and physiological responses under multiple stress conditions. The grasses were: Festulolium variety Prior (L. perenne x F. pratensis), shown to alter soil structure and hydrology to mitigate run-off and flooding; two advanced breeding populations of diploid L. perenne with genes for drought tolerance derived from the Mediterranean fescue species F. arundinacea and F. glaucescens; two tetraploid hybrid populations involving L. perenne in combination with F. glaucescens and F. mairei (from North Africa), respectively. As controls, Festulolium variety AberNiche and L. perenne variety AberWolf varieties, were used. Treatments consisted of: A) Control; plants maintained at optimum conditions, B) Flood; plants were flooded for 6 weeks followed by a 4-week recovery, C) Drought; plants received limited quantity of water for 12 weeks

  20. Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

    2015-12-01

    High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

  1. Impacts of Extreme Hot Weather Events on Electricity Consumption in Baden-Wuerttemberg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimler, S.

    2009-04-01

    Changes in electricity consumption due to hot weather events were examined for the German federal state Baden-Württemberg. The analysis consists of three major steps: Firstly, an analysis of the media coverage on the hot summer of 2003 gives direct and indirect information about changes in electricity demand due to changes in consumption patterns. On the one hand there was an overall increase in electricity demand due to the more frequent use of air conditionings, fans, cooling devices and water pumps. On the other hand shifts in electricity consumption took place due to modifications in daily routines: if possible, core working times were scheduled earlier, visitor streams in gastronomy and at events shifted from noon to evening hours, a temporal shifting of purchases took place in early morning or evening hours, and an increased night-activity was documented by a higher number of police operations due to noise disturbances. In a second step, some of the findings of the media analysis were quantified for households in the city region of Karlsruhe. For the chosen electric device groups refrigerators, mini-coolers, air conditionings, fans and electric stoves the difference between the consumption on a hot summer day and a normal summer day was computed. For this purpose, assumptions had to be made on the share of affected households, affected devices or usage patterns. These assumptions were summarized into three scenarios on low, medium and high heat induced changes in electricity consumption. In total, the quantification resulted in a range of about 7.5 to 9.2 % of heat-induced over-consumption related to the average amount of electrical load that is normally provided to Karlsruhe households on a summer's day. A third analysis of summer load curves aimed at testing the following hypotheses derived from the media analysis regarding changes in every-day routines and their effects on shifts in load profiles. To test the hypotheses, correlation tests were applied. (1

  2. Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

    2015-01-01

    Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change. PMID:26551357

  3. The influence of aspect on the biological weathering of granites: observations from the Kunlun Mountains, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Kevin; Arocena, Joselito M.; Boelhouwers, Jan; Liping, Zhu

    2005-04-01

    Bedrock and boulder weathering in the higher elevation, permafrost areas of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau have usually been ascribed to frost action. For short periods during two summers, an attempt was made to better elucidate weathering processes in this region. A combination of visual observation coupled with rudimentary data regarding removable weathered material from the four cardinal aspects of granite boulders at elevations of 4600-5000 m in the Kunlun Mountains (Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau) showed that there was a distinct aspect influence (south>west>north>east) on weathering. It was also observed that there were aspect-constrained variations in chasmoendolithic communities and for lichen distribution. To further aid understanding, temperature data for the four aspects were collected for several weeks during the summers of 2 years, with data recording at 1-min intervals using ultraresponsive (0.05 s), high precision (0.1 °C), ultrasmall (0.15 mm diameter) thermocouples; humidity data were also collected at the rock face. Based on these data, an attempt is made to evaluate the nature of granite weathering in this region. To better understand what the impact of the lichens/endolithic communities was and how this varies, use is made of XRD and SEM analyses on samples from each aspect. In addition, iron-rich patinas were found on a number of the boulders, and these too were analyzed in an attempt to see their relationship (if any) to the biological action.

  4. Lithological influences on contemporary and long-term regolith weathering at the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buss, Heather L.; Lara, Maria Chapela; Moore, Oliver; Kurtz, Andrew C.; Schulz, Marjorie S.; White, Arthur F.

    2017-01-01

    Lithologic differences give rise to the differential weatherability of the Earth’s surface and globally variable silicate weathering fluxes, which provide an important negative feedback on climate over geologic timescales. To isolate the influence of lithology on weathering rates and mechanisms, we compare two nearby catchments in the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory in Puerto Rico, which have similar climate history, relief and vegetation, but differ in bedrock lithology. Regolith and pore water samples with depth were collected from two ridgetops and at three sites along a slope transect in the volcaniclastic Bisley catchment and compared to existing data from the granitic Río Icacos catchment. The depth variations of solid-state and pore water chemistry and quantitative mineralogy were used to calculate mass transfer (tau) and weathering solute profiles, which in turn were used to determine weathering mechanisms and to estimate weathering rates.Regolith formed on both lithologies is highly leached of most labile elements, although Mg and K are less depleted in the granitic than in the volcaniclastic profiles, reflecting residual biotite in the granitic regolith not present in the volcaniclastics. Profiles of both lithologies that terminate at bedrock corestones are less weathered at depth, near the rock-regolith interfaces. Mg fluxes in the volcaniclastics derive primarily from dissolution of chlorite near the rock-regolith interface and from dissolution of illite and secondary phases in the upper regolith, whereas in the granitic profile, Mg and K fluxes derive from biotite dissolution. Long-term mineral dissolution rates and weathering fluxes were determined by integrating mass losses over the thickness of solid-state weathering fronts, and are therefore averages over the timescale of regolith development. Resulting long-term dissolution rates for minerals in the volcaniclastic regolith include chlorite: 8.9 × 10−14 mol m−2 s−1, illite: 2.1

  5. Lithological influences on contemporary and long-term regolith weathering at the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buss, Heather L.; Chapela Lara, María; Moore, Oliver W.; Kurtz, Andrew C.; Schulz, Marjorie S.; White, Art F.

    2017-01-01

    Lithologic differences give rise to the differential weatherability of the Earth's surface and globally variable silicate weathering fluxes, which provide an important negative feedback on climate over geologic timescales. To isolate the influence of lithology on weathering rates and mechanisms, we compare two nearby catchments in the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory in Puerto Rico, which have similar climate history, relief and vegetation, but differ in bedrock lithology. Regolith and pore water samples with depth were collected from two ridgetops and at three sites along a slope transect in the volcaniclastic Bisley catchment and compared to existing data from the granitic Río Icacos catchment. The depth variations of solid-state and pore water chemistry and quantitative mineralogy were used to calculate mass transfer (tau) and weathering solute profiles, which in turn were used to determine weathering mechanisms and to estimate weathering rates. Regolith formed on both lithologies is highly leached of most labile elements, although Mg and K are less depleted in the granitic than in the volcaniclastic profiles, reflecting residual biotite in the granitic regolith not present in the volcaniclastics. Profiles of both lithologies that terminate at bedrock corestones are less weathered at depth, near the rock-regolith interfaces. Mg fluxes in the volcaniclastics derive primarily from dissolution of chlorite near the rock-regolith interface and from dissolution of illite and secondary phases in the upper regolith, whereas in the granitic profile, Mg and K fluxes derive from biotite dissolution. Long-term mineral dissolution rates and weathering fluxes were determined by integrating mass losses over the thickness of solid-state weathering fronts, and are therefore averages over the timescale of regolith development. Resulting long-term dissolution rates for minerals in the volcaniclastic regolith include chlorite: 8.9 × 10-14 mol m-2 s-1, illite: 2.1 × 10-14 mol m

  6. Influences of air pollutants on polymeric materials. Natural weathering of polymers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reichert, T.F.R. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Chemische Technologie, Pfinztal-Berghausen (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Polymeric materials are affected during their entire service life by a number of environmental influences. These originate from both man made and natural sources. Such environmental influences include solar radiation, temperature, humidity and air pollutant effects. They all act together, some independently and some synergistically, to influence material properties, as well as functionality, service life, quality and reliability of the poly materials and systems. The main degradation process is chain scission with loss of molecular weight and oxidation, followed by fading of colours and loss of gloss and mechanical strength. Due to the large number of different types of polymers there are many types of degradation processes and it is difficult to generalise about the effects of the environment on organic materials. Materials, as opposed to organisms, have no self-repair mechanism which allows them to tolerate a certain level of stress. In principle, therefore, it is not possible to define critical levels for the effects of pollutants on materials below which no deterioration occurs. Material deterioration by weathering is normally a very slow process lasting some or more years. Therefore attempts have been made to produce deterioration in short-term experiments by using high stress levels. The limits for the high stress levels are given by the comparability of the obtained damage from artificially accelerated weathering with these from real natural weathering. To investigate the damage caused by air pollutants on polymeric materials, samples were natural weathered with some light exposed and some dark stored samples in different climatic and polluted areas of Germany. The weathering stations are closed to the continuously measuring stations for air quality

  7. Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natuzzi, Eileen S; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

    2016-08-03

    Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development.

  8. Influences of extreme weather, climate and pesticide use on invertebrates in cereal fields over 42 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewald, Julie A; Wheatley, Christopher J; Aebischer, Nicholas J; Moreby, Stephen J; Duffield, Simon J; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Morecroft, Michael B

    2015-11-01

    Cereal fields are central to balancing food production and environmental health in the face of climate change. Within them, invertebrates provide key ecosystem services. Using 42 years of monitoring data collected in southern England, we investigated the sensitivity and resilience of invertebrates in cereal fields to extreme weather events and examined the effect of long-term changes in temperature, rainfall and pesticide use on invertebrate abundance. Of the 26 invertebrate groups examined, eleven proved sensitive to extreme weather events. Average abundance increased in hot/dry years and decreased in cold/wet years for Araneae, Cicadellidae, adult Heteroptera, Thysanoptera, Braconidae, Enicmus and Lathridiidae. The average abundance of Delphacidae, Cryptophagidae and Mycetophilidae increased in both hot/dry and cold/wet years relative to other years. The abundance of all 10 groups usually returned to their long-term trend within a year after the extreme event. For five of them, sensitivity to cold/wet events was lowest (translating into higher abundances) at locations with a westerly aspect. Some long-term trends in invertebrate abundance correlated with temperature and rainfall, indicating that climate change may affect them. However, pesticide use was more important in explaining the trends, suggesting that reduced pesticide use would mitigate the effects of climate change.

  9. Climate change, extreme weather events, air pollution and respiratory health in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sario, M; Katsouyanni, K; Michelozzi, P

    2013-09-01

    Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges.

  10. Extreme Space Weather Events and Charging Hazard Assessments in Lunar Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minow, Joseph I.; Parker, Linda N.; Blackwell, William C., Jr.

    2008-01-01

    The sunlit lunar surface charges to positive potentials with mean values of a few tens of volts where photoelectron currents dominate the charging process. In contrast, surfaces in darkness may charge to negative potentials on the order of a few hundred volts when the charging process is dominated by hot electron populations in the absence of solar photons. Recently, observations of electron beams measured by instruments on spacecraft in low lunar orbit have been interpreted as evidence for extreme lunar surface potentials exceeding a few kilovolts suggesting that lunar orbital and surface plasma environments may contain charging risks similar to geostationary orbit during extreme space weather conditions. Space system design for successful operation in a wide range of lunar environments will therefore require evaluation of charging hazards during extreme space weather conditions. We present results from a study of space weather environments conducted to obtained credible extreme charging environments for use in charging hazard assessments for lunar missions including extreme conditions encountered when the Moon is in the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the Earth's magnetotail.

  11. Subcritical crack growth and mechanical weathering: a new consideration of how moisture influences rock erosion rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eppes, Martha-Cary; Keanini, Russell; Hancock, Gregory S.

    2016-04-01

    The contributions of moisture to the mechanical aspects of rock weathering and regolith production are poorly quantified. In particular, geomorphologists have largely overlooked the role of subcritical crack growth processes in physical weathering and the fact that moisture strongly influences the rates of those processes. This influence is irrespective of the function that moisture plays in stress loading mechanisms like freezing or hydration. Here we present a simple numerical model that explores the efficacy of subcritical crack growth in granite rock subaerially exposed under a range of moisture conditions. Because most weathering-related stress loading for rocks found at, or near, Earth's surface (hereafter surface rocks) is cyclic, we modeled crack growth using a novel combination of Paris' Law and Charles' Law. This combination allowed us to apply existing empirically-derived data for the stress corrosion index of Charles' Law to fatigue cracking. For stress, we focused on the relatively straightforward case of intergranular stresses that arise during solar-induced thermal cycling by conductive heat transfer, making the assumption that such stresses represent a universal minimum weathering stress experienced by all surface rocks. Because all other tensile weathering-related stresses would be additive in the context of crack growth, however, our model can be adapted to include other stress loading mechanisms. We validated our calculations using recently published thermal-stress-induced cracking rates. Our results demonstrate that 1) weathering-induced stresses as modeled herein, and as published by others, are sufficient to propagate fractures subcritically over long timescales with or without the presence of water 2) fracture propagation rates increase exponentially with respect to moisture, specifically relative humidity 3) fracture propagation rates driven by thermal cycling are strongly dependent on the magnitude of diurnal temperature ranges and the

  12. Using a Six Sigma Fishbone Analysis Approach To Evaluate the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Salmonella Positives in Young Chicken Slaughter Establishments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linville, John W; Schumann, Douglas; Aston, Christopher; Defibaugh-Chavez, Stephanie; Seebohm, Scott; Touhey, Lucy

    2016-12-01

    A six sigma fishbone analysis approach was used to develop a machine learning model in SAS, Version 9.4, by using stepwise linear regression. The model evaluated the effect of a wide variety of variables, including slaughter establishment operational measures, normal (30-year average) weather, and extreme weather events on the rate of Salmonella -positive carcasses in young chicken slaughter establishments. Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) verification carcass sampling data, as well as corresponding data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, from September 2011 through April 2015, were included in the model. The results of the modeling show that in addition to basic establishment operations, normal weather patterns, differences from normal and disaster events, including time lag weather and disaster variables, played a role in explaining the Salmonella percent positive that varied by slaughter volume quartile. Findings show that weather and disaster events should be considered as explanatory variables when assessing pathogen-related prevalence analysis or research and slaughter operational controls. The apparent significance of time lag weather variables suggested that at least some of the impact on Salmonella rates occurred after the weather events, which may offer opportunities for FSIS or the poultry industry to implement interventions to mitigate those effects.

  13. The influence of weather conditions on road safety : an assessment of the effect of precipitation and temperature.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijleveld, F.D. & Churchill, T.

    2009-01-01

    The influence of changes in extreme weather conditions is often identified as a cause of fluctuations in road safety and the resulting numbers of crashes and casualties. This report focuses on an analysis of the aggregate, accumulated effect of weather conditions (precipitation and temperature) on t

  14. Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

    OpenAIRE

    Hosek, J.; P. Musilek; E. Lozowski; Pytlak, P.

    2011-01-01

    The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply...

  15. Joint influence of meteorological events on light trapping of turnip moth (Scotia segetum Schiff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puskas János

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The light-trap collecting results, showing its flight activity, of turnip moth (Scotia segetum S c h i f f was examined connected with meteorological events. These factors were instability line, the convergence zone, the cyclogenesis, the country-wide rain, the cold- and warm weather fronts, the maritime- and continental moderate, arctic and subtropical air masses used the data published in "Calendar of Weather Phenomena" between 1967 and 1990 by National Meteorological Service. There were 29832 moths caught during 3232 night by 64 light-trap stations in the examined period. During one night more light-traps operated, therefore 25.021 observing data were worked up. We mean that the observing data are the same as the catching data at one night, at one observing station. The data of meteorological events were collected into groups according to their occurrence on one day alone or together with other ones. They were collected into separated groups according to arriving after a day without any meteorological events or if there were any of them on the previous day. The values of relative catch (RC were calculated daily for each observing stations and generations used the catching data. There was made a comparison between the relative catch (RC values and the meteorological events belonging to the data and on previous and following days. Then the relative catch values were summarized and averaged daily. The differences of daily average values of significance levels were controlled with t-test in all the groups. More than 95% significance levels were found in 36 groups. The favourable and infavourable influences of each event are the strongest at that time, when have influence not only alone but also with other effects simultaneously or they follow one another in a short time. Our results prove clearly, it is not enough to examine exclusively the modifying influence of each meteorological event on light-trap collecting. The success of light trapping is

  16. Use of VIIRS DNB Data to Monitor Power Outages and Restoration for Significant Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary; Molthan, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    NASA fs Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project operates from NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. The team provides unique satellite data to the National Weather Service (NWS) and other agencies and organizations for weather analysis. While much of its work is focused on improving short-term weather forecasting, the SPoRT team supported damage assessment and response to Hurricane Superstorm Sandy by providing imagery that highlighted regions without power. The team used data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite. The VIIRS low-light sensor, known as the day-night-band (DNB), can detect nighttime light from wildfires, urban and rural communities, and other human activity which emits light. It can also detect moonlight reflected from clouds and surface features. Using real time VIIRS data collected by our collaborative partner at the Space Science and Engineering Center of the University of Wisconsin, the SPoRT team created composite imagery to help detect power outages and restoration. This blackout imagery allowed emergency response teams from a variety of agencies to better plan and marshal resources for recovery efforts. The blackout product identified large-scale outages, offering a comprehensive perspective beyond a patchwork GIS mapping of outages that utility companies provide based on customer complaints. To support the relief efforts, the team provided its imagery to the USGS data portal, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other agencies used in their relief efforts. The team fs product helped FEMA, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Army monitor regions without power as part of their disaster response activities. Disaster responders used the images to identify possible outages and effectively distribute relief resources. An enhanced product is being developed and integrated into a web

  17. Synoptic examples of solar-terrestrial storming events for space weather education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habash Krause, L.; Knipp, D. J.

    2005-05-01

    With the ever-growing dependence on space based systems as part of modern society's day-to-day infrastructure, space weather courses are playing an increasingly important role in many educational venues. Because courses of this nature are often conducted as survey courses, bounding the scope and the level of depth of material to be covered in any given course remains a challenge. Often students may "lose the forest for the trees;" that is, they may focus on the details of individual processes to the point where it is difficult to grasp the connections between processes that are germane to a complete understanding of space weather. With this paper, the authors present a set of examples of candidate storms that we believe are effective at tying together storms on the sun with those in the near-earth space environment and the resulting space weather effects on manmade systems. We propose that it would be most appropriate to present these so-called synoptic storm studies toward the end of the course. The idea is to build on the understanding of specific processes that have been learned throughout the course. Each study would begin with a storm on the sun, and then progress through the modification of the solar wind due to the solar storm, then the interaction between the solar wind and the earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, upper atmosphere, and then finally any ground-based processes. The study would conclude with the effects on man-made systems. The candidate studies that will be covered in the talk include the May 1989 storm that resulted in massive power outages in Canada, the May 1998 compound storm, and the October 2004 Halloween storms that produced the largest x-ray flares on record to date.

  18. Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

    2017-02-01

    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

  19. Assimilation of Sentinel-1 estimates of Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) into a Numerical Weather Model for a more accurate forecast of extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateus, Pedro; Nico, Giovanni; Catalao, Joao

    2017-04-01

    In the last two decades, SAR interferometry has been used to obtain maps of Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV).This maps are characterized by their high spatial resolution when compared to the currently available PWV measurements (e.g. GNSS, radiometers or radiosondes). Several previous works have shown that assimilating PWV values, mainly derived from GNSS observations, into Numerical Weather Models (NWMs) can significantly improve rainfall predictions.It is noteworthy that the PWV-derived from GNSS observations have a high temporal resolution but a low spatialone. In addition, there are many regions without any GNSS stations, where temporal and spatial distribution of PWV areonly available through satellite measurements. The first attempt to assimilate InSAR-derived maps of PWV (InSAR-PWV) into a NWM was made by Pichelli et al. [1].They used InSAR-PWV maps obtained from ENVISAT-ASAR images and the mesoscale weather prediction model MM5 over the city of Rome, Italy. The statistical indices show that the InSAR-PWVdata assimilation improves the forecast of weak to moderateprecipitation (model over the city of Lisbon, Portugal, during a light rain event not forecast by the model.Results showed that after data assimilation, there is a bias correction of the PWV field and an improvement in the forecast of the weakto moderate rainfall up to 9 h after the assimilation time. We used, for the first time, the Weather Research and Forecast Data Assimilation (WRFDA) model, at micro-scale resolutions (3 km), over the Iberian Peninsula (focusing on the southern region of Spain) and during a convective cell associated with a local heavy rainfall event, to study the impact of assimilation PWV maps obtained from SAR interferometric phase calculated using images acquired by the Sentinel-1 satellite. It's worth noting that, in this case, the model without assimilation PWV maps fails to reproduce the amount and the region of heavy rainfall. The assimilation of InSAR-PWV maps with high

  20. Worldwide influence of Lamb Weather Types on Temperature, Precipitation and Wind Speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortesi, Nicola; Torralba, Veronica; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Peña-Angulo, Dhais; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier

    2016-04-01

    One of the main objectives of synoptic climatology is the detection of large-scale atmospheric drivers determining local climate variability. Especially in the extra-tropical regions, synoptic circulation plays an important role in driving local climate; for example, it is known that Atlantic weather fronts are responsible of a high amount of winter precipitation in Europe. In this research, the Weather Type catalogue developed by Lamb to classify the continuum of the atmospheric circulation in 10-26 classes was obtained individually at each grid point of the mean sea level pressure Era-Interim dataset (spatial resolution 0.7°), spanning the whole world. Although the analysis was performed globally, Tropical and Polar regions were excluded, the former because the Coriolis effect is weak at 0-23° N-S (nullifying the vorticity index), and the latter due to the spatial distortion of the Lamb grid at very high latitudes. Each resulting Weather Type was related to the local observed average daily 2-m Temperature, Precipitation and 10-m Wind speed anomalies from Era-Interim during last 30 years (1985-2014) to identify the Weather Types that behave as climate drivers at seasonal and yearly time scale. While some countries and regions have already been analysed in detail individually at higher spatial and/or temporal resolutions, this study provides a global view, filling the existing gap in literature, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (South Africa, South America, Australia) and over oceans, providing a bigger picture of the influence of Weather Types on climate.

  1. NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INFLUENCE OF INDIAN OCEAN SSTA ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN ASIAN MONSOON REGION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) exerts great influence on the generation of global weather and climate. Much progress has been made with respect to SSTA in the Pacific Ocean region in contrast to the Indian Ocean. The IAP9L model, which is developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Science, is used to simulate the influence of the Indian Ocean SSTA on the general circulation and weather/climate anomalies in the monsoon region of Asia. It is found that the warm (cool) SSTA in the equatorial low latitudes of the Indian Ocean triggers winter (summer) teleconnection patterns in middle and higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere that are similar to PNA or EAP. They play a very important role in the anomaly of circulation or weather and climate in the middle and lower latitudes of the Asian summer monsoon region. With the warm (cool) SSTA forcing in the Indian Ocean, the Asian summer monsoon sets up at a late (early) date and withdraws at a early (late) date, lasting for a short (long) duration at a weak (strong) intensity. The Indian Ocean SSTA is shown to be an indicator for precipitation variation in China.

  2. A Comparitive Analysis of the Influence of Weather on the Flight Altitudes of Birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; van Loon, Emiel; van Gasteren, Hans; van Belle, Jelmer; Bouten, Willem; Buurma, Luit

    2006-01-01

    Birds pose a serious risk to flight safety worldwide. A Bird Avoidance Model (BAM) is being developed in the Netherlands to reduce the risk of bird aircraft collisions. In order to develop a temporally and spatially dynamic model of bird densities, data are needed on the flight-altitude distribution of birds and how this is influenced by weather. This study focuses on the dynamics of flight altitudes of several species of birds during local flights over land in relation to meteorological conditions.We measured flight altitudes of several species in the southeastern Netherlands using tracking radar during spring and summer 2000. Representatives of different flight strategy groups included four species: a soaring species (buzzard ), an obligatory aerial forager (swift Apus apus), a flapping and gliding species (blackheaded gull Larus ridibundus), and a flapping species (starling Sturnus vulgaris).Maximum flight altitudes varied among species, during the day and among days. Weather significantly influenced the flight altitudes of all species studied. Factors such as temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric instability, cloud cover, and sea level pressure were related to flight altitudes. Different combinations of factors explained 40% 70% of the variance in maximum flight altitudes. Weather affected flight strategy groups differently. Compared to flapping species, buzzards and swifts showed stronger variations in maximum daily altitude and f lew higher under conditions reflecting stronger thermal convection. The dynamic vertical distributions of birds are important for risk assessment and mitigation measures in flight safety as well as wind turbine studies.

  3. Household and Community Assets and Farmers’ Adaptation to Extreme Weather Event:the Case of Drought in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yang-jie; HUANG Ji-kun; WANG Jin-xia

    2014-01-01

    Under climate change, rising frequency and serious extreme weather events have challenged agricultural production. Designing appropriate adaptation measures to the extreme weather events require rigorous and empirical analysis. The overall goals of this study are to understand physical adaptation measures taken by farmers and the impacts of household and community assets on farmers’ adaptation when they face drought. The analyses are based on a unique data set collected from a household survey in three provinces in China. The survey results show that though not common on annual basis, some farmers did use physical adaptation measures to ifght drought. Regression analysis reveals that both household and community assets significantly affect farmers’ adaptation behaviors. Improving households’ social capital and wealth, communities’ network and access to government’s anti-drought service can facilitate farmers’ adaptation to drought. Results indicate that community’s irrigation infrastructure and physical adaptation taken by farmers can substitute each other. Further analysis shows that the households taking adaptation measures have higher crop yields than those without taking these measures. The paper concludes with several policy implications.

  4. Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    KAUST Repository

    Deng, Liping

    2015-05-01

    The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite, in situ, and reanalysis data. Here, we focus on characterizing the initial synoptic features and examining the impact of model parameterization and resolution on the reproduction of a number of flood-producing rainfall events that occurred over the western Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. Analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data suggests that mesoscale convective systems associated with strong moisture convergence ahead of a trough were the major initial features for the occurrence of these intense rain events. The WRF Model was able to simulate the heavy rainfall, with driving convective processes well characterized by a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The use of higher (1 km vs 5 km) resolution along the Jeddah coastline favors the simulation of local convective systems and adds value to the simulation of heavy rainfall, especially for deep-convection-related extreme values. At the 5-km resolution, corresponding to an intermediate study domain, simulation without a cumulus scheme led to the formation of deeper convective systems and enhanced rainfall around Jeddah, illustrating the need for careful model scheme selection in this transition resolution. In analysis of multiple nested WRF simulations (25, 5, and 1 km), localized volume and intensity of heavy rainfall together with the duration of rainstorms within the Jeddah catchment area were captured reasonably well, although there was evidence of some displacements of rainstorm events.

  5. Influence of vegetations and snow cover on sand-dust events in the west of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Xingkui; CHEN Hong

    2006-01-01

    By using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with the resolution of 80km(80km, satellite remote sensing data, derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis showed that surface vegetation cover in large areas of northwest China took on a significantly increasing trend between 1982 and 1994, and decreased after 1995. The first two temporal coefficients corresponding to respective eigenvector can reflect the annual change of vegetation exactly in the west of China. The correlation analysis between NDVI and the frequency of sand storms, blowing sand and floating dust illuminate that annual change of vegetation is one of the most important factors affecting disaster weather, such as sand-dust events. Meanwhile, correlation analyses also demonstrate that the snowfall in the part of western China plays an important role in sand-dust events. In this study, the influence of vegetation and snow cover in the west of China on the frequency of sand-dust events is revealed directly in virtue of remote sensing data, weather observational data and statistical methods.

  6. A real-time assessment of factors influencing medication events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dollarhide, Adrian W; Rutledge, Thomas; Weinger, Matthew B; Fisher, Erin Stucky; Jain, Sonia; Wolfson, Tanya; Dresselhaus, Timothy R

    2014-01-01

    Reducing medical error is critical to improving the safety and quality of healthcare. Physician stress, fatigue, and excessive workload are performance-shaping factors (PSFs) that may influence medical events (actual administration errors and near misses), but direct relationships between these factors and patient safety have not been clearly defined. This study assessed the real-time influence of emotional stress, workload, and sleep deprivation on self-reported medication events by physicians in academic hospitals. During an 18-month study period, 185 physician participants working at four university-affiliated teaching hospitals reported medication events using a confidential reporting application on handheld computers. Emotional stress scores, perceived workload, patient case volume, clinical experience, total sleep, and demographic variables were also captured via the handheld computers. Medication event reports (n = 11) were then correlated with these demographic and PSFs. Medication events were associated with 36.1% higher perceived workload (p sleep (p = .10). These results confirm the effect of factors influencing medication events, and support attention to both provider and hospital environmental characteristics for improving patient safety.

  7. Impact of KITcube data on the prediction of maritime convective severe weather. Test for HYMEX IOP13 event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrio Carrio, Diego Saul; Homar Santaner, Víctor; Corsmeier, Ulrich

    2015-04-01

    The Special Observation Period 1 (SOP1) was a great milestone reached by the HyMeX scientific community. Observations sampling on 20 cases of severe weather were taken under an unprecedented international collaboration. The nderlying objective of this campaign was to improve the knowledge of the mechanisms leading to heavy precipitation and flash flooding in the Mediterranean. One of the most active platforms during the campaign was the KITcube-observatory of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, a mobile platform that includes ground-based remote sensors (radar and lidar) and instruments for in-situ measurements. During SOP1, the KITcube operated on the island of Corsica, providing direct observational data on severe weather occurring in the north-eastern region of the Western Mediterranean. IOP 13 occurred between 15-16 October 2012 and it was characterized by heavy rains over northern and central Italy. Storms formed over the French coastlands and over the sea, progressing eastwards across the Gulf of Genoa. The most affected areas were north-eastern Italy (160mm/24h), LiguriaTuscany (120mm/24h) and central Italy (600mm/24h). The prediction of these maritime convection driven cases is highly demanding for both operational offices and high resolution numerical models. Ensemble data assimilation methods provide the tools to combine observational and modeling information to formalize the problem of optimal use and transference of information in the initialization and integration of a forecasting system. We test the benefits offered by an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) system for the prediction of the IOP13 event. We assess the impacts of various in-situ special observations taken by the KITcube team during this event on the forecasts of socially sensible parameters such as probability of severe and accumulated precipitation. We discuss these impacts not only on the forecasts products but also in terms of the relevant physical mechanisms involved in the event.

  8. Classification of weather patterns to study the influence of meteorological characteristics on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Chia-Hua; Cheng, Fang-Yi

    2016-11-01

    Yunlin County is located in the central part of western Taiwan with major emissions from the Mailiao industrial park, the Taichung Power Plants and heavy traffic. In order to understand the influence of meteorological conditions on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, we applied a two-stage cluster analysis method using the daily averaged surface winds from four air quality monitoring stations in Yunlin County to classify the weather pattern. The study period includes 1095 days from Jan 2013 to December 2015. The classification results show that the low PM2.5 concentration occurs when the synoptic weather in Taiwan is affected by the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow. The high PM2.5 concentration occurs when Taiwan is under the influence of weak synoptic weather conditions and continental high-pressure peripheral circulation. A high PM2.5 event was studied and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model was performed. The result indicated that due to being blocked by the Central Mountain Range, Yunlin County, which is situated on the leeside of the mountains, exhibits low wind speed and strong subsidence behavior that favors PM2.5 accumulation.

  9. Ionospheric response to the space weather event of 18 November 2003 -- An investigation

    CERN Document Server

    Kumar, Pankaj; Taori, Alok; Chandra, Ramesh; Bisht, Shuchi

    2010-01-01

    The present study explores the ionospheric effects of the well cited solar flare events (M3.2, M3.9/2N) of 18 November 2003 associated with CMEs. The H{\\alpha} observations of these flares (taken with 15 cm Solar Tower Telescope at ARIES, Nainital) have been analysed to see an association of these flare events with the geomagnetic storm occurred on 20 November 2003. The ionospheric data from Puerto Rico (18.5{\\deg}N, 67.2{\\deg}W), Dyess (32.4{\\deg}N, 99.7{\\deg}W) and Millstone Hill (42.6{\\deg}N, 71.5{\\deg}W) together with the disturbance storm time indices (Dst index) variability exhibited a corresponding associations having a delay in the solar wind parameters, triggered by these flare events.

  10. On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, D; Ringwood, John; Condon, M.

    2004-01-01

    Weather information is an important factor in load forecasting models. This weather information usually takes the form of actual weather readings. However, online operation of load forecasting models requires the use of weather forecasts, with associated weather forecast errors. A technique is proposed to model weather forecast errors to reflect current accuracy. A load forecasting model is then proposed which combines the forecasts of several load forecasting models. This approach allows the...

  11. Hydrogeological hazards and weather events: Triggering and evolution of shallow landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore Monteleone

    2014-06-01

    The complex nature of these instability events that affect anthropized areas does not allow specific approaches for the defence of single good, but it finds a more effective solution based on the extensive knowledge of territory, perhaps at the scale of individual or several watersheds.

  12. Simulation of the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME Was Earth Directed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Galvin, A. B.; Simunac, Kristin; Baker, Daniel N.; Li, Xinlin; Zheng, Yihua; Glocer, Alex

    2013-01-01

    Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

  13. The Dynamics of Stellar Coronae Harboring Hot-jupiters II. A Space Weather Event on A Hot-jupiter

    CERN Document Server

    Cohen, O; Drake, J J; Sokolov, I V; Gombosi, T I

    2011-01-01

    We carry out a numerical simulation depicting the effects of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) event on a close-in giant planet in an extrasolar system. We drive the CME in a similar manner as in simulations of space weather events on Earth. The simulation includes the planetary orbital motion, which leads to the forming of a comet-like planetary magnetotail which is oriented almost perpendicular to the direction of propagation of the CME. The combination of this feature and the fact that the CME does not expand much by the time it reaches the planet leads to a unique CME-magnetosphere interaction, where the CME itself is highly affected by the presence of the planetary magnetosphere. We find that the planet is well-shielded from CME penetration, even for a relatively weak internal magnetic field. The planetary angular momentum loss associated with such an event is negligible compared to the total planetary angular momentum. We also find that the energy which is deposited in the magnetosphere is much higher than ...

  14. Conjunction Assessment Late-Notice High-Interest Event Investigation: Space Weather Aspects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachura, D.; Hejduk, M. D.

    2016-01-01

    Late-notice events usually driven by large changes in primary (protected) object or secondary object state. Main parameter to represent size of state change is component position difference divided by associated standard deviation (epsilon divided by sigma) from covariance. Investigation determined actual frequency of large state changes, in both individual and combined states. Compared them to theoretically expected frequencies. Found that large changes ( (epsilon divided by sigma) is greater than 3) in individual object states occur much more frequently than theory dictates. Effect is less pronounced in radial components and in events with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 1 (sup -5) (1e-5). Found combined state matched much closer to theoretical expectation, especially for radial and cross-track. In-track is expected to be the most vulnerable to modeling errors, so not surprising that non-compliance largest in this component.

  15. Influence of coronal holes on CMEs in causing SEP events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cheng-Long Shen; Jia Yao; Yu-Ming Wang; Pin-Zhong Ye; Xue-Pu Zhao; Shui Wang

    2010-01-01

    The issue of the influence of coronal holes(CHs)on coronal mass ejections(CMEs)in causing solar energetic particle(SEP)events is revisited.It is a continuation and extension of our previous work,in which no evident effects of CHs on CMEs in generating SEPs were found by statistically investigating 56 CME events.This result is consistent with the conclusion obtained by Kahler in 2004.We extrapolate the coronal magnetic field,define CHs as the regions consisting of only open magnetic field lines and perform a similar analysis on this issue for 76 events in total by extending the study interval to the end of 2008.Three key parameters,CH proximity,CH area and CH relative position,are involved in the analysis.The new result confirms the previous conclusion that CHs did not show any evident effect on CMEs in causing SEP events.

  16. The influence of the weather on tourist experiences: Analysing travel blog narratives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeuring, J.; Peters, K.B.M.

    2013-01-01

    As one of its main resources, weather is an integral part of tourism. Yet little is known about how individual tourists experience the weather and how it affects the subjective perception of their holidays. The weather appears to have a prominent place in language and the use of the weather in

  17. The influence of the weather on tourist experiences: Analysing travel blog narratives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeuring, J.; Peters, K.B.M.

    2013-01-01

    As one of its main resources, weather is an integral part of tourism. Yet little is known about how individual tourists experience the weather and how it affects the subjective perception of their holidays. The weather appears to have a prominent place in language and the use of the weather in narra

  18. The influence of the weather on tourist experiences: Analysing travel blog narratives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeuring, J.; Peters, K.B.M.

    2013-01-01

    As one of its main resources, weather is an integral part of tourism. Yet little is known about how individual tourists experience the weather and how it affects the subjective perception of their holidays. The weather appears to have a prominent place in language and the use of the weather in narra

  19. Influence of surface modified nano silica on alkyd binder before and after accelerated weathering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nikolic, Miroslav; Nguyen, Hiep Dinh; Daugaard, Anders Egede

    2016-01-01

    Introduction of nano fillers in exterior wood coatings is not straight forward. Influence on aging of polymer binder needs to be taken into account along with possible benefits that nano fillers can provide immediately after application. This study shows the influence of two differently modified...... hydrophobic nano silica on an alkyd binder for exterior wood coatings. One month after application, the highest strength and energy required to break the films was obtained with addition of 3% disilazane modified silica. Changes in tensile properties were accompanied with a small increase in glass transition...... temperature. However, the highest stability upon accelerated weathering, measured by ATR-IR and DMA, was for nano composites with the highest amount of nano filler. The reasons for the observed changes are discussed together with the appearance of a feature that is possibly a secondary relaxation of alkyd...

  20. Controlling Stormwater Quality with Filter Soil—Event and Dry Weather Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Cederkvist

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The use of filter soil is increasing for control of quality of stormwater runoff prior to infiltration or discharge. This study aimed to gain knowledge about treatment efficacy of filter soils at field scale. Percolate samples from swale-trench systems with filter soil based on agricultural till with/without limestone were monitored for 15 and 9 rain events respectively. Further, two curb extensions with filter soil based on landfill soil were monitored for 10 and 8 events. Pollutant concentrations in percolate were compared to influent samples from the catchment area. Additionally one of the curb extensions was tested twice by adding high-dose synthetic influent containing runoff pollutants of concern. Despite generally low influent pollutant levels, phosphorus, copper, zinc, lead and some polyaromatic hydrocarbons exceeded guiding criteria for protection of groundwater and freshwater. Concentrations in the percolate were in most cases reduced, but phosphorus increased and despite reduced concentrations copper, lead and benzo(apyrene still exceeded guiding criteria. Pollutants from the synthetic influent were efficiently retained, except the pesticide MCPA. Filter soil based on landfill soil tended to perform better than agricultural till. No impact of limestone was observed. Overall the filter soils performed well in retaining pollutants, despite simultaneous processes of mobilization and immobilization.

  1. The influence of seasonality and weather changes on premature birth incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muresan, Daniel; Staicu, Adelina; Zaharie, Gabriela; Marginean, Claudiu; Rotar, Ioana Cristina

    2017-01-01

    Although the effects of meteorological factors on the general population health are widely documented, little is known about their influence on human pregnancy and birth. The present study aims at analyzing the influence of the atmospheric conditions on premature births. One hundred and eight nine cases of premature births were included in the study, with a gestational age between 24 to 37 weeks of amenorrhea. Cases with antepartum fetal death and those with uncertain gestational age have been excluded. Daily weather data were obtained using http://www.wunderground.com site. A Pearson's product-moment correlation was run to assess the relationship between weekly preterm birth incidence and the total number of premature births and the mean maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax, Tmin), maximum and minimum average humidity (Umax, Umin), maximum and minimum atmospheric pressure mean (P max, P min), average wind speed and average quantity precipitations, calculated for one calendar week. Approximately 7.7% of all births during the study period occurred before 37 weeks of gestation, the main reason for hospitalization being premature rupture of membranes (45%). The analysis revealed a moderate positive correlation between weekly preterm birth incidence and the average temperature (r=0.306, n=52, p=0.027) and a moderate positive correlation between weekly preterm birth incidence and temperature variation (r=0.307, n=52, p=0.007). Our study found no significant statistic correlation between the humidity variation, pressure variation, and wind speed. The incidence of premature births can be influenced by variations of specific weather factors, especially during the weeks characterized by large fluctuations in temperature. The results obtained might inspire the construction of multicenter studies to investigate more thoroughly the adverse effects of some meteorological factors that can influence the outcomes of human pregnancy.

  2. The Influence of Weather Variation, Urban Design and Built Environment on Objectively Measured Sedentary Behaviour in Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarun Reddy Katapally

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available With emerging evidence indicating that independent of physical activity, sedentary behaviour (SB can be detrimental to health, researchers are increasingly aiming to understand the influence of multiple contexts such as urban design and built environment on SB. However, weather variation, a factor that continuously interacts with all other environmental variables, has been consistently underexplored. This study investigated the influence of diverse environmental exposures (including weather variation, urban design and built environment on SB in children. This cross-sectional observational study is part of an active living research initiative set in the Canadian prairie city of Saskatoon. Saskatoon’s neighbourhoods were classified based on urban street design into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear types of neighbourhoods. Diverse environmental exposures were measured including, neighbourhood built environment, and neighbourhood and household socioeconomic environment. Actical accelerometers were deployed between April and June 2010 (spring-summer to derive SB of 331 10–14 year old children in 25 one week cycles. Each cycle of accelerometry was conducted on a different cohort of children within the total sample. Accelerometer data were matched with localized weather patterns derived from Environment Canada weather data. Multilevel modeling using Hierarchical Linear and Non-linear Modeling software was conducted by factoring in weather variation to depict the influence of diverse environmental exposures on SB. Both weather variation and urban design played a significant role in SB. After factoring in weather variation, it was observed that children living in grid-pattern neighbourhoods closer to the city centre (with higher diversity of destinations were less likely to be sedentary. This study demonstrates a methodology that could be replicated to integrate geography-specific weather patterns with existing cross

  3. Influence of short-term solar disturbances on the fair weather conduction current

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elhalel Gal

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The fair weather atmospheric electrical current (Jz couples the ionosphere to the lower atmosphere and thus provides a route by which changes in solar activity can modify processes in the lower troposphere. This paper examines the temporal variations and spectral characteristics of continuous measurements of Jz conducted at the Wise Observatory in Mitzpe-Ramon, Israel (30°35′ N, 34°45′ E, during two large CMEs, and during periods of increased solar wind density. Evidence is presented for the effects of geomagnetic storms and sub-storms on low latitude Jz during two coronal mass ejections (CMEs, on 24–25th October 2011 and 7–8th March 2012, when the variability in Jz increased by an order of magnitude compared to normal fair weather conditions. The dynamic spectrum of the increased Jz fluctuations exhibit peaks in the Pc5 frequency range. Similar low frequency characteristics occur during periods of enhanced solar wind proton density. During the October 2011 event, the periods of increased fluctuations in Jz lasted for 7 h and coincided with fluctuations of the inter-planetary magnetic field (IMF detected by the ACE satellite. We suggest downward mapping of ionospheric electric fields as a possible mechanism for the increased fluctuations.

  4. Large-scale weather dynamics during the 2015 haze event in Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djamil, Yudha; Lee, Wen-Chien; Tien Dat, Pham; Kuwata, Mikinori

    2017-04-01

    The 2015 haze event in South East Asia is widely considered as a period of the worst air quality in the region in more than a decade. The source of the haze was from forest and peatland fire in Sumatra and Kalimantan Islands, Indonesia. The fires were mostly came from the practice of forest clearance known as slash and burn, to be converted to palm oil plantation. Such practice of clearance although occurs seasonally but at 2015 it became worst by the impact of strong El Nino. The long period of dryer atmosphere over the region due to El Nino makes the fire easier to ignite, spread and difficult to stop. The biomass emission from the forest and peatland fire caused large-scale haze pollution problem in both Islands and further spread into the neighboring countries such as Singapore and Malaysia. In Singapore, for about two months (September-October, 2015) the air quality was in the unhealthy level. Such unfortunate condition caused some socioeconomic losses such as school closure, cancellation of outdoor events, health issues and many more with total losses estimated as S700 million. The unhealthy level of Singapore's air quality is based on the increasing pollutant standard index (PSI>120) due to the haze arrival, it even reached a hazardous level (PSI= 300) for several days. PSI is a metric of air quality in Singapore that aggregate six pollutants (SO2, PM10, PM2.5, NO2, CO and O3). In this study, we focused on PSI variability in weekly-biweekly time scales (periodicity < 30 days) since it is the least understood compare to their diurnal and seasonal scales. We have identified three dominant time scales of PSI ( 5, 10 and 20 days) using Wavelet method and investigated their large-scale atmospheric structures. The PSI associated large-scale column moisture horizontal structures over the Indo-Pacific basin are dominated by easterly propagating gyres in synoptic (macro) scale for the 5 days ( 10 and 20 days) time scales. The propagating gyres manifest as cyclical

  5. Analysis of Synoptic Weather Types and Its Influence on Precipitation in the Marmara Region (NW Turkey)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baltaci, H.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Karaca, M.

    2012-04-01

    more common in the fall season 11% due to the expansion of spatial extent of the anticyclone center located over the Caspian Sea. Daily precipitation records for the period of between 2001 and 2010 belong to 14 meteorological stations in the region were investigated to understand the influence of synoptic weather types on precipitation. Based on daily precipitation records, about one-third of the NE-patterns result in precipitation which is slightly larger than patterns from other directions. The corresponding values for SW-, N- and S-patterns are 29%, 25% and 25%, respectively. Northerly patterns (N and NE) causes more frequent precipitation on the northern and eastern parts of the region. On the other hand, southerly patterns (S and SW) are more influential and cause more frequent precipitation on the south and northwestern parts of the region. Therefore, frequency of synoptic weather types and daily precipitation records suggest that precipitation regimes are of a different nature in northern and southern parts of the Marmara region. Keywords Synoptic weather types; Marmara Region; Lamb classification; Rainfall patterns

  6. Reducing the prediction uncertainties of high-impact weather and climate events: An overview of studies at LASG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Wansuo; Feng, Rong

    2017-02-01

    This paper summarizes recent progress at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences in studies on targeted observations, data assimilation, and ensemble prediction, which are three effective strategies to reduce the prediction uncertainties and improve the forecast skill of weather and climate events. Considering the limitations of traditional targeted observation approaches, LASG researchers have developed a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation-based targeted observation strategy to optimize the design of the observing network. This strategy has been employed to identify sensitive areas for targeted observations of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical cyclones, and has been demonstrated to be effective in improving the forecast skill of these events. To assimilate the targeted observations into the initial state of a numerical model, a dimension-reducedprojection- based four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) approach has been proposed and is used operationally to supply accurate initial conditions in numerical forecasts. The performance of DRP-4DVar is good, and its computational cost is much lower than the standard 4DVar approach. Besides, ensemble prediction, which is a practical approach to generate probabilistic forecasts of the future state of a particular system, can be used to reduce the prediction uncertainties of single forecasts by taking the ensemble mean of forecast members. In this field, LASG researchers have proposed an ensemble forecast method that uses nonlinear local Lyapunov vectors (NLLVs) to yield ensemble initial perturbations. Its application in simple models has shown that NLLVs are more useful than bred vectors and singular vectors in improving the skill of the ensemble forecast. Therefore, NLLVs represent a candidate for possible development as an

  7. The characteristics of clusters of weather and extreme climate events in China during the past 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Ping; Hou Wei; Feng Guo-Lin

    2012-01-01

    The pick-up algorithm by the k-th order cluster for the closest distance is used in the fields of weather and climactic events,and the technical terms clustered index and high clustered region are defined to investigate their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in China during the past 50 years.The results show that the contribution of extreme high-temperature event clusters changed in the period from the 1960s to the 1970s,and its strength was enhanced.On the other hand,the decreasing trend in the clusters of low-temperature extremes can be taken as a signal for warmer winters to follow in the decadal time scale.Torrential rain and heavy rainfall clusters have both been lessened in the past 50 years,and have different cluster characteristics because of their definitions.Regions with high clustered indexes are concentrated in southern China.The spatial evolution of the heavy rainfall clusters reveals that clustered heavy rainfall has played an important role in the rain-belt pattern over China during the last 50 years.

  8. No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malinowska, A.H.; Strien, van A.J.; Verboom, J.; Wallis de Vries, M.F.; Opdam, P.

    2014-01-01

    Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather

  9. Understanding Space Weather influence on earthquake triggering to shield people living in seismic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khachikyan, Galina; Inchin, Alexander; Kim, Alexander; Khassanov, Eldar

    2016-07-01

    There is an idea at present that space weather can influence not only the technological infrastructure and people's health, but seismic activity as well. Space weather impact on the Earth results from magnetic reconnection between the Sun's and Earth's magnetic fields. The effectiveness of reconnection depends on sign and magnitude of Z-components in solar wind magnetic field and earth's magnetic field as measured in the geocentric solar magnetosphere (GSM) coordinate system. The more negative value of Zgsm in the solar wind magnetic field, and the more positive value of Zgsm in the geomagnetic field, the more solar wind energy penetrates into the earth's environment due to reconnection. It was found recently by Khachikyan et al. [2012, http://www.scirp.org/journal/ijg] that maximal possible earthquake magnitude in a particular seismic region (seismic potential - Mmax) may be determined, in first approximation, on the base of maximal geomagnetic Zgsm value in this region, namely: Mmax = (5.22 +- 0.17) + (0.78 +- 0.06) x [abs (Zgsm)]. In this report we present statistical results on association between variations in space weather and global seismic activity, and demonstrate that a great Sumatra earthquake (M=9.1, on December 26, 2004, at 00:58:53 GMT) indeed occurred in region where the geomagnetic Zgsm components are largest at the globe. In the time of earthquake occurrence, geomagnetic Zgsm value in the epicenter (3.30N, 95.980E) was equal to ~37147 nT. A range of possible maximal magnitude, as estimated from above relation, could be of 8.8 - 9.2. The recorded magnitude M=9.1 is within this range.

  10. Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, William J; Orzell, Steve L; Slocum, Matthew G

    2015-01-01

    Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of

  11. Potential of sequential EnKF for the short-range prediction of a maritime severe weather event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrió, D. S.; Homar, V.

    2016-09-01

    The Western Mediterranean coastlands are persistently affected by severe phenomena related to maritime convective systems. Areas with low density of observations around highly populated regions pose serious forecasting challenges due to the risk of misrepresenting crucial structures. This forecast problem is exemplified by the squall line that affected Mallorca (Spain) on 4th October 2007. Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) assimilation algorithms exploit the statistical information conveyed by ensembles and are specially suited for regions with poor knowledge about climatological error statistics and covariances. We investigate the potential for predictability improvement from the assimilation of standard observations in the squall line event. Ensemble forecasts are assessed in terms of probabilistic products which clearly bring out the differences between assimilation and control experiments. Results show the large improvements rendered by the EnKF system in terms of severe weather threat. The attribution of these improvements is discussed in terms of the environmental ingredients linked to squall line formation. Experiments reveal that forecast improvements are fully attributable to the ability of EnKF to accurately represent the convergent flow over the Alboran Sea responsible for the thunderstorm initiation. Additional sensitivity experiments are performed to confirm the hypothesised primary role of the terrestrial observations in the accurate representation of the low-level convergent flow. These experiments confirm the ability of the sequential assimilation system in conveying crucial observational information from terrestrial to marine areas, and thus bestowing the EnKF a central role in future upgrades of high impact weather prediction systems in the Western Mediterranean region.

  12. Influence of weather and climate on subjective symptom intensity in atopic eczema

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vocks, E.; Busch, R.; Fröhlich, C.; Borelli, S.; Mayer, H.; Ring, J.

    The frequent clinical observation that the course of atopic eczema, a skin disease involving a disturbed cutaneous barrier function, is influenced by climate and weather motivated us to analyse these relationships biometrically. In the Swiss high-mountain area of Davos the intensity of itching experienced by patients with atopic eczema was evaluated and compared to 15 single meteorological variables recorded daily during an entire 7-year observation period. By means of univariate analyses and multiple regressions, itch intensity was found to be correlated with some meteorological variables. A clear-cut inverse correlation exists with air temperature (coefficient of correlation: -0.235, Peczema is significantly dependent on meteorological conditions. The data suggest that, in patients with atopic eczema, a certain range of thermo-hygric atmospheric conditions with a balance of heat and water loss on the skin surface is essential for the skin to feel comfortable.

  13. Influence of Fast Global Variations of Solar Magnetic Fields on Space Weather in Cycle 23

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    S. I. Molodykh; G.A. Zherebtsov; V.A. Kovalenko; J.X. Wang; V.I. Sidorov

    2005-01-01

    It is established that the large-scale and global magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere do not change smoothly, and long-lasting periods of gradual variations are superseded by fast structural changes of the global magnetic field. Periods of fast global changes on the Sun are accompanied by anomalous manifestations in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field. There is a regular recurrence of these periods in each cycle of solar activity, and the periods are characterized by enhanced flaring activity that reflects fast changes in magnetic structures. Is demonstrated, that the fast changes have essential influencing on a condition of space weather, as most strong geophysical disturbances are connected to sporadic phenomena on the Sun. An explanation has been offered for the origin of anomalous geomagnetic disturbances that are unidentifiable in traditionally used solar activity indices. Is shown, main physical mechanism that leads to fast variations of the magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere is the reconnection process.

  14. Influence of seasonal weather and climate variability on crop yields in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2013-07-01

    The climatic sensitivity of four important agriculture crops (wheat, barley, oats, potatoes) in a northern temperate bioclimatic region is investigated using national-level yield data for 1963-2005. The climate variables include monthly and annual meteorological data, derived bioclimatic metrics, and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Statistical analysis shows that significant relationships between yield and climate vary depending on the crop type and month but highlight the influence of precipitation (negative correlation) and sunshine duration (positive correlation) rather than temperature. Soil moisture deficit is shown to be a particular useful indicator of yield with drier summers providing the best yields for Scotland as a whole. It is also tentatively inferred that the sensitivity of these crops, particularly wheat and barley, to soil moisture deficits has increased in recent years. This suggests that improved crop yields are optimised for dry sunny years despite the continued prevalence of considerable inter-annual variability in seasonal weather.

  15. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    López L, D.

    2009-11-01

    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  16. Planning support system for climate adaptation: Composing effective sets of blue-green measures to reduce urban vulnerability to extreme weather events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voskamp, I.M.; Ven, Van de F.H.M.

    2015-01-01

    The risk of pluvial flooding, heat stress and drought is increasing due to climate change. To increase urban resilience to extreme weather events, it is essential to combine green and blue infrastructure and link enhanced storage capacity in periods of water surplus with moments of water shortage as

  17. Planning support system for climate adaptation: Composing effective sets of blue-green measures to reduce urban vulnerability to extreme weather events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voskamp, I.M.; Ven, Van de F.H.M.

    2015-01-01

    The risk of pluvial flooding, heat stress and drought is increasing due to climate change. To increase urban resilience to extreme weather events, it is essential to combine green and blue infrastructure and link enhanced storage capacity in periods of water surplus with moments of water shortage as

  18. Caught in the Solar Wind: A Study of Space Weather and its Influence on Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, R.; Chuckran, A.; Erickson, P. J.

    2007-12-01

    Space weather is a phenomenon that is becoming more familiar to the general public. As people are increasingly reliant on 21st century technology, the potential for disruption to their daily lives also rises. As the sun approaches its next solar maximum in 2011 or 2012, the peak of Cycle 24 is expected to be the highest of the satellite age, perhaps surpassing that of Cycle 19 in 1957-58. In this teaching unit, we have attempted to create a series of lessons that sheds light on the concept of space weather and the sun's influences on earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere. Within this unit, we have provided ample opportunities for students to access and interpret real scientific data from a variety of sources. The main location is the web site www.spaceweather.com , which has near real time data from satellites such as SOHO, STEREO, ACE and POES. This data is easily viewed and explained within the site, and with appropriate instruction, students can regularly gather data, make predictions, and draw conclusions based on the current behavior of the sun. Examples include sunspot number and development, speed and density of solar wind, orientation and strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, location of coronal holes, planetary K index and X-ray solar flares. Depending on the level of the students, some or all of this data can be compiled over a period of time to better understand the behavior of the sun as well as its influence on Earth. The goal of this unit is to provide a vehicle for students to understand how data is used by scientists. Once they have the base knowledge, students may be able to construct their own questions and follow through with research. An inquiry-based approach is incorporated whenever possible. With the onset of a potentially active solar cycle in the near future, teachers have the opportunity to make a dramatic connection between the natural world and their daily lives. Solar storms can cause disruption to telephone communication

  19. Response of the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere during the space weather events of April 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. L. C. Lima

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available A digital ionosonde, of the type known as Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosonde (CADI, has been in routine operation at São José dos Campos (23.2° S, 45.9° W; dip latitude 17.6° S, Brazil, since August 2000. A new CADI was installed at Palmas (10.2° S, 48.2° W; dip latitude 5.5° S, Brazil, in April 2002. The two CADIs are part of a new network being established in a collaborative program between UNIVAP and CEULP/ULBRA, to study the equatorial and low-latitude ionospheric regions in Brazil. In this paper we present and discuss the effects of the space weather events during 17-20 April 2002, as evidenced by the ionospheric parameter changes from simultaneous observations at São José dos Campos and Palmas. A comparison of the observed ionospheric parameters (h'F, hpF2 and foF2 at the two stations, separated only by about 1460km, shows both similarities and differences associated with the geomagnetic disturbances. Also, a comparison of the observed F-region parameters with the ASPEN-TIMEGCM model results is presented. The model results show reasonable agreement during the quiet period of observations, but some discrepancies have been observed during the geomagnetic disturbances.

  20. Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Omony, George William

    2016-10-01

    This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa (EA), using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The analysis was based on observed daily rainfall from 23 weather stations, with length varying within 1961 and 2010. The indices considered are: wet days (R ≥1 mm), annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), simple daily intensity index (SDII), heavy precipitation days (R ≥ 10 mm), very heavy precipitation days (R ≥ 20 mm), and severe precipitation (R ≥ 50 mm). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical analysis was carried out to identify trends in the data. Temporal precipitation distribution was different from station to station. Almost all indices considered are decreasing with time. The analysis shows that the PRCPTOT, very heavy precipitation, and severe precipitation are generally declining insignificantly at 5 % significant level. The PRCPTOT is evidently decreasing over Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) as compared to other parts of EA. The number of days that recorded heavy rainfall is generally decreasing but starts to rise in the last decade although the changes are insignificant. Both PRCPTOT and heavy precipitation show a recovery in trend starting in the 1990s. The SDII shows a reduction in most areas, especially the in ASAL. The changes give a possible indication of the ongoing climate variability and change which modify the rainfall regime of EA. The results form a basis for further research, utilizing longer datasets over the entire region to reduce the generalizations made herein. Continuous monitoring of extreme events in EA is critical, given that rainfall is projected to increase in the twenty-first century.

  1. Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descamps, Sébastien; Tarroux, Arnaud; Varpe, Øystein; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Tveraa, Torkild; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon

    2015-01-01

    Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success and population growth rate. We used detailed data on daily individual nest survival in a year with frequent and heavy snow storms, and long term data on petrel productivity (i.e., number of chicks produced) at the colony level. Our results indicated that snow storms are an important determinant of nest survival and overall productivity. Snow storm events explained 30% of the daily nest survival within the 2011/2012 season and nearly 30% of the interannual variation in colony productivity in period 1985-2014. Snow storms are a key driver of Antarctic petrel breeding success, and potentially population dynamics. We also found state-dependent effects of snow storms and chicks in poor condition were more likely to die during a snow storm than chicks in good condition. This stresses the importance of considering interactions between individual heterogeneity and extreme weather events to understand both individual and population responses to climate change.

  2. “It Was Raining All the Time!”: Ex Post Tourist Weather Perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Gössling

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The importance of weather for tourism is now widely recognized. However, no research has so far addressed weather events from retrospective viewpoints, and, in particular, the role of “extreme” events in longer-term holiday memories. To better understand the character of ex post weather experiences and their importance in destination image perceptions and future travel planning behavior, this exploratory study addressed a sample of 50 tourists from three globally important source markets: Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Results indicate that weather events do not dominate long-term memories of tourist experiences. Yet, weather events are important in shaping destination image, with “rain” being the single most important weather variable negatively influencing perceptions. Results also suggest that weather events perceived as extreme can involve considerable emotions. The study of ex post traveler memories consequently makes a valuable contribution to the understanding of the complexity of “extreme weather” events for tourist demand responses.

  3. On Possible Influence of Space Weather on Agricultural Markets: Necessary Conditions and Probable Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Pustilnik, Lev

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area of specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysis methods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable m...

  4. The influence of weather conditions during gestation on life histories in a wild Arctic ungulate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douhard, Mathieu; Loe, Leif Egil; Stien, Audun; Bonenfant, Christophe; Irvine, R Justin; Veiberg, Vebjørn; Ropstad, Erik; Albon, Steve

    2016-10-26

    The internal predictive adaptive response (internal PAR) hypothesis predicts that individuals born in poor conditions should start to reproduce earlier if they are likely to have reduced performance in later life. However, whether this is the case remains unexplored in wild populations. Here, we use longitudinal data from a long-term study of Svalbard reindeer to examine age-related changes in adult female life-history responses to environmental conditions experienced in utero as indexed by rain-on-snow (ROSutero). We show that females experiencing high ROSutero had reduced reproductive success only from 7 years of age, independent of early reproduction. These individuals were able to maintain the same annual reproductive success between 2 and 6 years as phenotypically superior conspecifics that experienced low ROSutero Young females born after high ROSutero engage in reproductive events at lower body mass (about 2.5 kg less) than those born after low ROSutero The mean fitness of females that experienced poor environmental conditions in early life was comparable with that of females exposed to good environmental conditions in early life. These results are consistent with the idea of internal PAR and suggest that the life-history responses to early-life conditions can buffer the delayed effects of weather on population dynamics.

  5. Influence of Met-Ocean Condition Forecasting Uncertainties on Weather Window Predictions for Offshore Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    The article briefly presents a novel methodology of weather window estimation for offshore operations and mainly focuses on effects of met-ocean condition forecasting uncertainties on weather window predictions when using the proposed methodology. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology...... to include stochastic variables, representing met-ocean forecasting uncertainties and the results of such modification are given in terms of predicted weather windows for a selected test case....

  6. Quantifying the effect of interannual ocean variability on the attribution of extreme climate events to human influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risser, Mark D.; Stone, Dáithí A.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Wehner, Michael F.; Angélil, Oliver

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in computational resources motivate the use of uncoupled, atmosphere/land-only climate models with prescribed ocean conditions run over a short period, leading up to and including an event of interest. In this approach, large ensembles of high-resolution simulations can be generated under factual observed conditions and counterfactual conditions that might have been observed in the absence of human interference; these can be used to estimate the change in probability of the given event due to anthropogenic influence. However, using a prescribed ocean state ignores the possibility that estimates of attributable risk might be a function of the ocean state. Thus, the uncertainty in attributable risk is likely underestimated, implying an over-confidence in anthropogenic influence. In this work, we estimate the year-to-year variability in calculations of the anthropogenic contribution to extreme weather based on large ensembles of atmospheric model simulations. Our results both quantify the magnitude of year-to-year variability and categorize the degree to which conclusions of attributable risk are qualitatively affected. The methodology is illustrated by exploring extreme temperature and precipitation events for the northwest coast of South America and northern-central Siberia; we also provides results for regions around the globe. While it remains preferable to perform a full multi-year analysis, the results presented here can serve as an indication of where and when attribution researchers should be concerned about the use of atmosphere-only simulations.

  7. The influence of weather and environment on pulmonary embolism: pollutants and fossil fuels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clauss, Ralf; Mayes, Julian; Hilton, Paul; Lawrenson, Ross

    2005-01-01

    Previous publications have highlighted seasonal variations in the incidence of thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, and that weather patterns can influence these. While medical risk factors for pulmonary thrombo-embolism such as age, obesity, hypercoagulable states, cancer, previous thrombo-embolism, immobility, limb paralysis, surgery, major illness, trauma, hypotension, tachypnoea and right ventricular hypokinesis are not directly implicated regarding environmental factors such as weather, they could be influenced indirectly by these. This would be especially relevant in polluted areas that are associated with a higher pulmonary embolism risk. Routine nuclear medicine lung ventilation/perfusion studies (V/Q scans) of 2071 adult patients referred to the nuclear medicine department of the Royal Surrey County Hospital in Guildford, UK, between January 1998 and October 2002 were reviewed and 316 of these patients were classified as positive for pulmonary embolism with high probability scan on PIOPED criteria. The occurrence of positive scans was compared to environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, vapour pressure, air pressure and rainfall. Multiple linear regression was used to establish the significance of these relations. The incidence of pulmonary embolism was positively related to vapour pressure and rainfall. The most significant relation was to vapour pressure (p=0.010) while rainfall was less significant (p=0.017). There was no significant relation between pulmonary embolism and air pressure, humidity or temperature. It is postulated that rainfall and water vapour may be contributary factors in thrombosis and pulmonary embolism by way of pollutants that are carried as condensation nuclei in micro-droplets of water. In particular, fossil fuel pollutants are implicated as these condensation nuclei. Pollutants may be inhaled by populations exposed to windborne vapour droplets in cities or airports. Polluted vapour droplets may be absorbed by the lung

  8. Influence of Tidal Forces on the Triggering of Seismic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga, Péter; Grafarend, Erik

    2017-05-01

    Tidal stresses are generated in any three-dimensional body influenced by an external inhomogeneous gravity field of rotating planets or moons. In this paper, as a special case, stresses caused within the solid Earth by the body tides are discussed from viewpoint of their influence on seismic activity. The earthquake triggering effects of the Moon and Sun are usually investigated by statistical comparison of tidal variations and temporal distribution of earthquake activity, or with the use of mathematical or experimental modelling of physical processes in earthquake prone structures. In this study, the magnitude of the lunisolar stress tensor in terms of its components along the latitude of the spherical surface of the Earth as well as inside the Earth (up to the core-mantle boundary) were calculated for the PREM (Dziewonski and Anderson in Phys Earth Planet Inter 25(4):297-356, 1981). Results of calculations prove that stress increases as a function of depth reaching a value around some kPa at the depth of 900-1500 km, well below the zone of deep earthquakes. At the depth of the overwhelming part of seismic energy accumulation (around 50 km) the stresses of lunisolar origin are only (0.0-1.0)·103 Pa. Despite the fact that these values are much smaller than the earthquake stress drops (1-30 MPa) (Kanamori in Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 22:207-237, 1994) this does not exclude the possibility of an impact of tidal forces on outbreak of seismic events. Since the tidal potential and its derivatives are coordinate dependent and the zonal, tesseral and sectorial tides have different distributions from the surface down to the CMB, the lunisolar stress cannot influence the break-out of every seismological event in the same degree. The influencing lunisolar effect of the solid earth tides on earthquake occurrences is connected first of all with stress components acting parallel to the surface of the Earth. The influence of load tides is limited to the loaded area and its

  9. An observational analysis: Tropical relative to Arctic influence on midlatitude weather in the era of Arctic amplification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Judah

    2016-05-01

    The tropics, in general, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in particular are almost exclusively relied upon for seasonal forecasting. Much less considered and certainly more controversial is the idea that Arctic variability is influencing midlatitude weather. However, since the late 1980s and early 1990s, the Arctic has undergone the most rapid warming observed globally, referred to as Arctic amplification (AA), which has coincided with an observed increase in extreme weather. Analysis of observed trends in hemispheric circulation over the period of AA more closely resembles variability associated with Arctic boundary forcings than with tropical forcing. Furthermore, analysis of intraseasonal temperature variability shows that the cooling in midlatitude winter temperatures has been accompanied by an increase in temperature variability and not a decrease, popularly referred to as "weather whiplash."

  10. Influence of geomagnetic activity and earth weather changes on heart rate and blood pressure in young and healthy population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozheredov, V. A.; Chibisov, S. M.; Blagonravov, M. L.; Khodorovich, N. A.; Demurov, E. A.; Goryachev, V. A.; Kharlitskaya, E. V.; Eremina, I. S.; Meladze, Z. A.

    2017-05-01

    There are many references in the literature related to connection between the space weather and the state of human organism. The search of external factors influence on humans is a multi-factor problem and it is well known that humans have a meteo-sensitivity. A direct problem of finding the earth weather conditions, under which the space weather manifests itself most strongly, is discussed in the present work for the first time in the helio-biology. From a formal point of view, this problem requires identification of subset (magnetobiotropic region) in three-dimensional earth's weather parameters such as pressure, temperature, and humidity, corresponding to the days when the human body is the most sensitive to changes in the geomagnetic field variations and when it reacts by statistically significant increase (or decrease) of a particular physiological parameter. This formulation defines the optimization of the problem, and the solution of the latter is not possible without the involvement of powerful metaheuristic methods of searching. Using the algorithm of differential evolution, we prove the existence of magnetobiotropic regions in the earth's weather parameters, which exhibit magneto-sensitivity of systolic, diastolic blood pressure, and heart rate of healthy young subjects for three weather areas (combinations of atmospheric temperature, pressure, and humidity). The maximum value of the correlation confidence for the measurements attributable to the days of the weather conditions that fall into each of three magnetobiotropic areas is an order of 0.006, that is almost 10 times less than the confidence, equal to 0.05, accepted in many helio-biological researches.

  11. Influence of geomagnetic activity and earth weather changes on heart rate and blood pressure in young and healthy population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozheredov, V. A.; Chibisov, S. M.; Blagonravov, M. L.; Khodorovich, N. A.; Demurov, E. A.; Goryachev, V. A.; Kharlitskaya, E. V.; Eremina, I. S.; Meladze, Z. A.

    2016-11-01

    There are many references in the literature related to connection between the space weather and the state of human organism. The search of external factors influence on humans is a multi-factor problem and it is well known that humans have a meteo-sensitivity. A direct problem of finding the earth weather conditions, under which the space weather manifests itself most strongly, is discussed in the present work for the first time in the helio-biology. From a formal point of view, this problem requires identification of subset (magnetobiotropic region) in three-dimensional earth's weather parameters such as pressure, temperature, and humidity, corresponding to the days when the human body is the most sensitive to changes in the geomagnetic field variations and when it reacts by statistically significant increase (or decrease) of a particular physiological parameter. This formulation defines the optimization of the problem, and the solution of the latter is not possible without the involvement of powerful metaheuristic methods of searching. Using the algorithm of differential evolution, we prove the existence of magnetobiotropic regions in the earth's weather parameters, which exhibit magneto-sensitivity of systolic, diastolic blood pressure, and heart rate of healthy young subjects for three weather areas (combinations of atmospheric temperature, pressure, and humidity). The maximum value of the correlation confidence for the measurements attributable to the days of the weather conditions that fall into each of three magnetobiotropic areas is an order of 0.006, that is almost 10 times less than the confidence, equal to 0.05, accepted in many helio-biological researches.

  12. Influence of weather on traffic flow: An extensive stochastic multi-effect capacity and demand analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calvert, S.C.; Snelder, M.

    2016-01-01

    Traffic is affected by a wide range of variables. An influential and commonly occurring variable on traffic flow is the weather. Weather conditions affect both traffic demand as well as road capacity and in doing so also affect the traffic fluency, or rather the ability of traffic to maintain a cert

  13. Influence of weathering and pre-existing large scale fractures on gravitational slope failure: insights from 3-D physical modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bachmann

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a new 3-D physical modelling technique we investigated the initiation and evolution of large scale landslides in presence of pre-existing large scale fractures and taking into account the slope material weakening due to the alteration/weathering. The modelling technique is based on the specially developed properly scaled analogue materials, as well as on the original vertical accelerator device enabling increases in the 'gravity acceleration' up to a factor 50. The weathering primarily affects the uppermost layers through the water circulation. We simulated the effect of this process by making models of two parts. The shallower one represents the zone subject to homogeneous weathering and is made of low strength material of compressive strength σl. The deeper (core part of the model is stronger and simulates intact rocks. Deformation of such a model subjected to the gravity force occurred only in its upper (low strength layer. In another set of experiments, low strength (σw narrow planar zones sub-parallel to the slope surface (σwl were introduced into the model's superficial low strength layer to simulate localized highly weathered zones. In this configuration landslides were initiated much easier (at lower 'gravity force', were shallower and had smaller horizontal size largely defined by the weak zone size. Pre-existing fractures were introduced into the model by cutting it along a given plan. They have proved to be of small influence on the slope stability, except when they were associated to highly weathered zones. In this latter case the fractures laterally limited the slides. Deep seated rockslides initiation is thus directly defined by the mechanical structure of the hillslope's uppermost levels and especially by the presence of the weak zones due to the weathering. The large scale fractures play a more passive role and can only influence the shape and the volume of the sliding units.

  14. Deep convective events influence ozone variability in southeast South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamelin, B.; Carvalho, L. V.

    2016-12-01

    When tropospheric greenhouse gasses are deposited in the stratosphere (especially water vapor) the system chemically responds with incoming solar radiation to destroy ozone. As a result, these processes have a cooling effect on the stratosphere, and a warming effect in the troposphere. Areas in South America influenced by the South Atlantic Convergent Zone, the Chaco Low, and South American Low Level Jet are associated with large mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and are experiencing decreased ozone levels above 150 mb. Utilizing Aqua's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) V6 level 3 data from 2002 to 2016, deep convective events are identified in Southeast South America between 22°S - 36°S (Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Southern Paraguay and Northeast Argentina) and analyzed as a contributor to changes in the upper tropopause-lower stratosphere (UTLS) ozone during the austral spring. These events are established to identify the transport of tropospheric greenhouse gasses to the lower stratosphere (especially water vapor and methane) related to ozone loss between 150 - 10 mb due to direct injection above the cold point tropopause, determine UTLS temperature variations, and classify lower stratospheric hydration.

  15. The influence of temperature in a capillary imbibition salt weathering simulation test on Mokattam limestone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aly, N.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Limestone is one of the most frequent building stones used in monuments in Egypt from ancient Egyptian times and salt weathering is one of the main threats to these monuments. During this work, cylindrical limestone samples (2 cm diameter and approx. 4 cm length from Mokattam group, one of the most frequent materials in historic Cairo, were subjected, in a purpose-made simulation chamber, to laboratory salt weathering tests with a 10% weight NaCl solution at different temperatures (20, 30, 40 °C. During each test, temperature was kept constant and salt solutions flowed continuously imbibing samples by capillary rise resembling the way they get into building stone in many real cases. Air temperature, relative humidity inside the simulation chamber and also samples weight were digitally monitored and recorded. Results show the influence of temperature and the ratio between imbibitions and evaporation on the dynamics of salt crystallization in the samples.Los monumentos egipcios se construyeron frecuentemente con caliza desde la antigüedad y uno de sus principales agentes de deterioro son las sales. Por ejemplo, en la zona histórica de El Cairo son frecuentes las calizas del grupo Mokattam. Cilindros (2 cm de diámetro y aproximadamente 4 cm de altura de esta caliza se sometieron a ensayos de deterioro por sales en una cámara experimental específicamente diseñada. Se utilizó una solución salina (10% en peso de NaCl a diferentes temperaturas (20 °C, 30 °C, 40 °C que se mantuvieron constantes en cada ensayo. La solución fluía constantemente embebiendo las muestras por capilaridad, simulando lo que ocurre en casos reales. La temperatura del aire, humedad relativa en la cámara y peso de las muestras se monitorizaron con sensores digitales. Los resultados muestran la influencia de la temperatura y del balance entre imbibición y evaporación en la dinámica de la cristalización de sales en las muestras.

  16. Investigating the influence of subsurface heterogeneity on chemical weathering in the critical zone using high resolution reactive transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, S.; Rajaram, H.

    2014-12-01

    The critical zone (CZ) represents a major life-sustaining realm of the terrestrial surface. The processes controlling the development and transformation of the CZ are important to continued health of the planet as human influence continues to grow. The CZ encompasses the shallow subsurface, a region of reaction, unsaturated flow, and transport. Chemical weathering in the subsurface is one of the important processes involved in the formation and functioning of the CZ. We present two case studies of reactive transport modeling to investigate the influence of subsurface heterogeneity and unsaturated flow on chemical weathering processes in the CZ. The model is implemented using the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN. Heterogeneity in subsurface flow is represented using multiple realizations of conductive fracture networks in a hillslope cross-section. The first case study is motivated by observations at the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory (BCCZO) including extensive hydrologic and geochemical datasets. The simulations show that fractures greatly enhance weathering as compared to a homogeneous porous medium. Simulations of north-facing slope hydrology with prolonged snowmelt pulses also increases weathering rates, showing the importance of slope aspect on weathering intensity. Recent work elucidates deteriorating water quality caused by climate change in the CZ of watersheds where acid rock drainage (ARD) occurs. The more complex reactions of ARD require a customized kinetic reaction module with PFLOTRAN. The second case study explores the mechanisms by which changes in hydrologic forcing, air and ground temperatures, and water table elevations influence ARD. For instance, unreacted pyrite exposed by a water table drop was shown to produce a 125% increase in annual pyrite oxidization rate, which provides one explanation for increased ARD.

  17. The influence of circulation weather patterns at different spatial scales on drought variability in the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Cristina Russo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Europe has suffered several extreme weather events which were responsible for considerable ecological and economic losses in the last few decades. In Southern Europe, droughts are one of the most frequent extreme weather events, causing severe damages and various fatalities.The main goal of this study is to determine the role of Circulation Weather Types (CWT on spatial and temporal variability of droughts by means the new multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. This study aims also to identify the main CWTs associated with winter and summer droughts over different regions of Iberian Peninsula.During the period between 1950 and 2012, the most frequent CWTs were found to be the Anticyclonic (A, Cyclonic (C, North (N and Northeast (NE types. The trend analysis for winter season shows a clear increase of frequency CWTs associated to dry events (A, East and Southeast and a decrease of frequency of C and northern types while in summer a clear decrease of NE is observed.The spatial patterns of correlation between SPEI and CWT show large patterns of negative correlations with winter frequencies of A and eastern weather types, while the reverse occurs with C and western types. This feature is highlighted on a regional approach. The NE type presents negative correlations Central, Northwestern and Southwestern regions during winter and positive correlations in Eastern region during summer. In opposition, the West type presents positive correlations in all regions (except Eastern region during winter and does not present significant correlations during summer. In general, the predominant CWT associated to winter or summer drought conditions differs greatly between regions. The winter droughts are associated mainly with high frequency of E types and low frequency of W types for all areas, while the summer drought in eastern sectors are linked with low frequency of C type, as well as the western regions are related with the N

  18. Record-low primary productivity and high plant damage in the Nordic Arctic Region in 2012 caused by multiple weather events and pest outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerke, Jarle W.; Rune Karlsen, Stein; Arild Høgda, Kjell; Malnes, Eirik; Jepsen, Jane U.; Lovibond, Sarah; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Tømmervik, Hans

    2014-08-01

    The release of cold temperature constraints on photosynthesis has led to increased productivity (greening) in significant parts (32-39%) of the Arctic, but much of the Arctic shows stable (57-64%) or reduced productivity (browning, factors dampening the greening effect of more maritime regions have remained elusive. Here we show how multiple anomalous weather events severely affected the terrestrial productivity during one water year (October 2011-September 2012) in a maritime region north of the Arctic Circle, the Nordic Arctic Region, and contributed to the lowest mean vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) recorded this century. Procedures for field data sampling were designed during or shortly after the events in order to assess both the variability in effects and the maximum effects of the stressors. Outbreaks of insect and fungal pests also contributed to low greenness. Vegetation greenness in 2012 was 6.8% lower than the 2000-11 average and 58% lower in the worst affected areas that were under multiple stressors. These results indicate the importance of events (some being mostly neglected in climate change effect studies and monitoring) for primary productivity in a high-latitude maritime region, and highlight the importance of monitoring plant damage in the field and including frequencies of stress events in models of carbon economy and ecosystem change in the Arctic. Fourteen weather events and anomalies and 32 hypothesized impacts on plant productivity are summarized as an aid for directing future research.

  19. Influence of pH during chemical weathering of bricks: Long term exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rörig-Dalgaard, Inge; Charola, A. Elena

    2016-01-01

    Within the framework of environmental weathering of bricks in historical structures, this study focuses on new bricks currently employed for restoration projects. The bricks were subjected to an accelerated chemical weathering test by immersion in solutions with pH ranging from 3 to 13 for differ......Within the framework of environmental weathering of bricks in historical structures, this study focuses on new bricks currently employed for restoration projects. The bricks were subjected to an accelerated chemical weathering test by immersion in solutions with pH ranging from 3 to 13...... for different lengths of time up to 432 days, data to 288 days are presented since the project is still ongoing. The study analyzed the changes of pH induced in the solutions by the presence of the bricks (this also served to adjust the pH to the intended value), as well as the concentration of various ions...

  20. Moving events in time: Time-referent hand–arm movements influence perceived temporal distance to past events

    OpenAIRE

    Semin, Gün Refik; Blom, Stephanie S. A. H.

    2013-01-01

    We examine and find support for the hypothesis that time-referent hand-arm movements influence temporal judgments. In line with the concept of ""left is associated with earlier times, and right is associated with later times,"" we show that performing left (right) hand-arm movements while thinking about a past event increases (decreases) the perceived temporal distance to the event. These findings show for the first time that hand-arm movements can influence the perceived temporal distance to...

  1. Weighting Statistical Inputs for Data Used to Support Effective Decision Making During Severe Emergency Weather and Environmental Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Adrian

    2010-01-01

    National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) weather and atmospheric environmental organizations are insatiable consumers of geophysical, hydrometeorological and solar weather statistics. The expanding array of internet-worked sensors producing targeted physical measurements has generated an almost factorial explosion of near real-time inputs to topical statistical datasets. Normalizing and value-based parsing of such statistical datasets in support of time-constrained weather and environmental alerts and warnings is essential, even with dedicated high-performance computational capabilities. What are the optimal indicators for advanced decision making? How do we recognize the line between sufficient statistical sampling and excessive, mission destructive sampling ? How do we assure that the normalization and parsing process, when interpolated through numerical models, yields accurate and actionable alerts and warnings? This presentation will address the integrated means and methods to achieve desired outputs for NASA and consumers of its data.

  2. Weighting Statistical Inputs for Data Used to Support Effective Decision Making During Severe Emergency Weather and Environmental Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Adrian

    2010-01-01

    National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) weather and atmospheric environmental organizations are insatiable consumers of geophysical, hydrometeorological and solar weather statistics. The expanding array of internet-worked sensors producing targeted physical measurements has generated an almost factorial explosion of near real-time inputs to topical statistical datasets. Normalizing and value-based parsing of such statistical datasets in support of time-constrained weather and environmental alerts and warnings is essential, even with dedicated high-performance computational capabilities. What are the optimal indicators for advanced decision making? How do we recognize the line between sufficient statistical sampling and excessive, mission destructive sampling ? How do we assure that the normalization and parsing process, when interpolated through numerical models, yields accurate and actionable alerts and warnings? This presentation will address the integrated means and methods to achieve desired outputs for NASA and consumers of its data.

  3. Influence and hazard of disastrous space weather on power grid in China%Influence and hazard of disastrous space weather on power grid in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Lianguang; Zheng Kuan; Liu Chunming

    2011-01-01

    Based on the measured data of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in Guangdong Ling' ao 500 kV power networks during several magnetic storms at the peak years of 23rd Solar Cycle, the GIC calculation results of 750 kV planning power grid in Shartxi, Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia, the structure and characteristics of power networks from 500 kV to 1 000 kV, and super magnetic storm in 1859 are analyzed in this paper. Through the analysis, the possible impacts of extreme space weather on the future ultra-high voltage (UHV) grid, the security of large-scale power system in China are expounded, and the research suggestions coping with the strong solar storms are proposed.

  4. It is raining mice and voles: which weather conditions influence the activity of Apodemus flavicollis and Myodes glareolus?

    OpenAIRE

    Wróbel, Aleksandra; Bogdziewicz, Michał

    2015-01-01

    Rodents constitute a crucial part of food chains in many ecosystems; thus, changes in their activity might influence many other species in the community. Moreover, daily variations in activity appear to be an important adaptation, helping rodents to cope with fluctuating intensity of predation pressure and food availability. We investigated how the nightly activity of the yellow-necked mouse (Apodemus flavicollis) and the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) changes with weather conditions. Increased...

  5. Chemical Weathering in the San Gabriel Mountains of California: The influence of erosion rates, soil depth, and transport processes on soil chemical losses (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, J. L.; Hartshorn, A. S.; Heimsath, A. M.; Dibiase, R. A.; Whipple, K. X.

    2010-12-01

    What controls the chemical weathering of soils in actively eroding landscapes? In this study, we explore the tectonic signature on soil weathering in the San Gabriel Mountains (SGM) of California, where propagating waves of incision triggered by increasing rock uplift have resulted in distinctly different hillslope morphologies and erosion rates across the range. We quantify downslope patterns of soil weathering across this landscape using sites that bracket low-gradient hillslopes of the stable upland plateau and hillslopes near the margins of the incising landscape. We use elemental mass balances in rock and soil to index the weathered extent of soils, and couple these extents with previously measured 10Be-derived soil production rates to calculate rates of soil weathering and erosion. Across all sites, Tau-Si—the fractional loss or gain of Si from parent material—averages -0.32±0.04, and the weathered extent of soils generally increases with increasing distance from the hillcrest. However, weathering intensities decrease as hillslope gradients steepen beyond 30°. Chemical weathering extents on slopes controlling mineral supply and residence time. These patterns are consistent with previously published predictive models for denudation-weathering relationships based on mineral weathering kinetics. Variable weathering extents in soils indicate that soil weathering in the SGM is largely kinetically limited. This work provides a field-based quantification of the complex relationship between soil erosion and chemical weathering, and together our data suggest that tectonic forcing strongly influences soil weathering rates and extents through its control on erosion rates, transport processes and soil thickness.

  6. Coastal vegetation and its influence on the 2004 tsunami event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laso Bayas, J. C.; Marohn, C.; Dercon, G.; Dewi, S.; Piepho, H. P.; Joshi, L.; van Noordwijk, M.; Cadisch, G.

    2012-04-01

    A tsunami event has several effects once it reaches the shore. Infrastructure damage and casualties are two of its most dire consequences. The intensity of these damages is related to the wave force, which in turn is mostly determined by seaquake intensity and offshore properties. Nevertheless, once on land, the energy of the wave is attenuated by gravity (elevation) and friction (land cover). Despite being promoted as 'bio-shields' against wave impact, tree-belts lack quantitative evidence of their performance in such extreme events, and have been criticized for creating a false sense of security. We have studied some of the land uses in sites affected by the 2004 tsunami event, especially in coastal areas close to the coast of Indonesia, more specifically in the west coast of Aceh, Sumatra. Using transects perpendicular to the coast we analyzed the influence of coastal vegetation, particularly cultivated trees, on the impact of the 2004 tsunami. We developed a spatial statistical model that uses a land cover roughness coefficient to account for the resistance offered by different land uses to the wave advance. The coefficient was built using satellite imagery, land cover maps, land use characteristics such as stem diameter, height, and planting density, as well as a literature review. The spatial generalized linear mixed models used determined that while distance to coast was the dominant determinant of impact (casualties and infrastructure damage), the existing coastal vegetation in front of settlements also significantly reduced casualties by an average of 5%. Despite this positive effect of coastal vegetation in front of a settlement, we also found out that dense vegetation behind villages endangered human lives and increased structural damage. We believe that possibly debris carried by the backwash may have contributed to these dissimilar effects of land cover. The models developed in Indonesia are currently being adapted and tested for the effects that the

  7. Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

  8. Spatial influence and oceanic thermal response to Santa Ana events along the Baja California peninsula

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro, R. [Facultad de Ciencias Marinas, Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Ensenada, Baja California (Mexico)]. E-mail: rubenc@uabc.mx; Mascarenhas, A.; Martinez-Diaz-de-leon, A. [Instituto de Investigaciones Oceanologicas, Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Ensenada, Baja California (Mexico); Durazo, R. [Facultad de Ciencias Marinas, Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Ensenada, Baja California, (Mexico); Gil Silva, E. [Instituto de Investigaciones Oceanologicas, Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Ensenada, Baja California, (Mexico)

    2006-07-15

    Meteorological data were recorded at eight stations located along the coast of the Pacific Ocean and three along the coast of the Gulf of California, aimed to assess the spatial influence of Santa Ana weather conditions in the Baja California peninsula. February 2002 featured two Santa Ana events: one from the 9 to the 12 and another from the 21 to the 22. The first Santa Ana event had the strongest winds, however relative humidity and temperature behaved similarly on both events at some stations. Data from the Pacific Ocean showed typical Santa Ana condition patterns: wind speed and temperature increase opposed to decreased relative humidity values. Data from the Gulf of California did not show the typical temperature rise of a Santa Ana condition, but there was a decrease on the amplitude of the diurnal variability of air temperature and relative humidity as well as a marked increase on wind strength. Wind direction during the Santa Ana events on the Pacific side was NE and NW on the Gulf of California. NE winds are associated to the shift on the position of the North Pacific High Pressure Center, which moves towards the continent. Data suggest that relative humidity may be the best parameter to monitor both occurrence and length of Santa Ana conditions on the Pacific side. Normal weather conditions show a negative air-sea temperature difference, but during both Santa Ana events this difference was positive and higher than 10 degrees Celsius. Latent and sensible heat fluxes drastically increased during both events, reaching values more than three times higher than those for normal conditions, which is due to the presence of strong winds combined with a drier and hotter air mass over the ocean. [Spanish] Con el proposito de estudiar la influencia espacial de condiciones Santa Ana a lo largo de la peninsula de Baja California, se registraron datos meteorologicos en ocho estaciones localizadas en el lado del Pacifico y tres estaciones en el Golfo de California. En

  9. Stressful life events and depressive symptoms: influences of gender, event severity, and depression history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Sungeun; Conner, Kenneth R

    2009-11-01

    Informed by Post's (1992) kindling hypothesis, the study examined the association between depressive symptoms and varying levels of perceived life events as determined by respondents, as well as the moderating role of depression history and gender. Severe life events were significantly associated with current depressive symptoms among never depressed women but not among women with depression history. Such a moderating role of depression history was not observed among men where severe life events were associated with current depressive symptoms in men regardless of depression history. No moderating effects of gender and depression history were obtained for mild and moderate life events, but these events were significantly associated with current depressive symptoms. These results support Post's kindling hypothesis for severe life events but not for mild or moderate life events, and further only in women.

  10. Factors Influencing Knowledge, Food Safety Practices and Food Preferences During Warm Weather of Salmonella and Campylobacter Cases in South Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milazzo, Adriana; Giles, Lynne C; Zhang, Ying; Koehler, Ann P; Hiller, Janet E; Bi, Peng

    2017-03-01

    To assess food safety practices, food shopping preferences, and eating behaviors of people diagnosed with Salmonella or Campylobacter infection in the warm seasons, and to identify socioeconomic factors associated with behavior and practices. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among Salmonella and Campylobacter cases with onset of illness from January 1 to March 31, 2013. Multivariable logistic regression analyses examined relationships between socioeconomic position and food safety knowledge and practices, shopping and food preferences, and preferences, perceptions, and knowledge about food safety information on warm days. Respondents in our study engaged in unsafe personal and food hygiene practices. They also carried out unsafe food preparation practices, and had poor knowledge of foods associated with an increased risk of foodborne illness. Socioeconomic position did not influence food safety practices. We found that people's reported eating behaviors and food preferences were influenced by warm weather. Our study has explored preferences and practices related to food safety in the warm season months. This is important given that warmer ambient temperatures are projected to rise, both globally and in Australia, and will have a substantial effect on the burden of infectious gastroenteritis including foodborne disease. Our results provide information about modifiable behaviors for the prevention of foodborne illness in the household in the warm weather and the need for information to be disseminated across the general population. An understanding of the knowledge and factors associated with human behavior during warmer weather is critical for public health interventions on foodborne prevention.

  11. Research on the different content of weathered sand influence on expansive characteristic of a highway expansive soil in Yichang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Jun; Li Xinchun; Zhang Guodong; Tang Yunwei; Xie Zhigang

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims at widespread presence of expansive soil which can be obtained in the project from Xiaoxita to Yaqueling first-class highway rebuilding engineering in Yichang City of Hubei Province and weathered sand which can be made full use locally,many experiments have been made. Compaction experiments and expan-sibility index indoor experiments of undisturbed expansive soil and expansive soil mixed with sand ranging from 10%to 50%have been made. Through the test mixing undisturbed expansive soil with different content of weath-ered sand,it can change the expansive soil water characteristics and compaction characteristics. It can influence the expansibility of the expansive soil index and significantly inhibit the expansibility of the expansive soil and reach the standard of roadbed filler.

  12. The influence of the weather on recreational behaviour: a micro econometric approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berkhout, P.H.G.; Brouwer, N.M.

    2005-01-01

    In this article the relationship between the weather and water-based recreational behavior is investigated at the microlevel. The relation is estimated by applying a zero-inflated negative binomial count model on a large dataset consisting of individually reported day-tripping behavior during a

  13. Space Weather Influence on Relative Motion Control using the Touchless Electrostatic Tractor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Erik A.; Schaub, Hanspeter

    2016-09-01

    With recent interest in the use of electrostatic forces for contactless tugging and attitude control of noncooperative objects for orbital servicing and active debris mitigation, the need for a method of remote charge control arises. In this paper, the use of a directed electron beam for remote charge control is considered in conjunction with the relative motion control. A tug vehicle emits an electron beam onto a deputy object, charging it negatively. At the same time, the tug is charged positively due to beam emission, resulting in an attractive electrostatic force. The relative position feedback control between the tug and the passive debris object is studied subject to the charging being created through an electron beam. Employing the nominal variations of the GEO space weather conditions across longitude slots, two electrostatic tugging strategies are considered. First, the electron beam current is adjusted throughout the orbit in order to maximize this resulting electrostatic force. This open-loop control strategy compensates for changes in the nominally expected local space weather environment in the GEO region to adjust for fluctuations in the local plasma return currents. Second, the performance impact of using a fixed electron beam current on the electrostatic tractor is studied if the same natural space weather variations are assumed. The fixed electron beam current shows a minor performance penalty (<5 %) while providing a much simpler implementation that does not require any knowledge of local space weather conditions.

  14. The influence of weather on fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis. [in human body

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchenko, V. I.

    1974-01-01

    Analysis of fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis indices by month showed an increase in the activity of these processes from winter to summer (1967-1968). At all seasons of the year, fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis increase during weather of the cyclonic type with passage of fronts and sharp fluctuations in meteorological factors in the atmosphere.

  15. Influence of weather and climate variables on the basal area growth of individual shortleaf pine trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradip Saud; Thomas B. Lynch; Duncan S. Wilson; John Stewart; James M. Guldin; Bob Heinemann; Randy Holeman; Dennis Wilson; Keith Anderson

    2015-01-01

    An individual-tree basal area growth model previously developed for even-aged naturally occurring shortleaf pine trees (Pinus echinata Mill.) in western Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma did not include weather variables. Individual-tree growth and yield modeling of shortleaf pine has been carried out using the remeasurements of over 200 plots...

  16. Characterizing response of total suspended solids and total phosphorus loading to weather and watershed characteristics for rainfall and snowmelt events in agricultural watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danz, Mari E.; Corsi, Steven; Brooks, Wesley R.; Bannerman, Roger T.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the response of total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) to influential weather and watershed variables is critical in the development of sediment and nutrient reduction plans. In this study, rainfall and snowmelt event loadings of TSS and TP were analyzed for eight agricultural watersheds in Wisconsin, with areas ranging from 14 to 110 km2 and having four to twelve years of data available. The data showed that a small number of rainfall and snowmelt runoff events accounted for the majority of total event loading. The largest 10% of the loading events for each watershed accounted for 73–97% of the total TSS load and 64–88% of the total TP load. More than half of the total annual TSS load was transported during a single event for each watershed at least one of the monitored years. Rainfall and snowmelt events were both influential contributors of TSS and TP loading. TSS loading contributions were greater from rainfall events at five watersheds, from snowmelt events at two watersheds, and nearly equal at one watershed. The TP loading contributions were greater from rainfall events at three watersheds, from snowmelt events at two watersheds and nearly equal at three watersheds. Stepwise multivariate regression models for TSS and TP event loadings were developed separately for rainfall and snowmelt runoff events for each individual watershed and for all watersheds combined by using a suite of precipitation, melt, temperature, seasonality, and watershed characteristics as predictors. All individual models and the combined model for rainfall events resulted in two common predictors as most influential for TSS and TP. These included rainfall depth and the antecedent baseflow. Using these two predictors alone resulted in an R2 greater than 0.7 in all but three individual models and 0.61 or greater for all individual models. The combined model yielded an R2 of 0.66 for TSS and 0.59 for TP. Neither the individual nor the combined models were

  17. Event Structure Influences Language Production: Evidence from Structural Priming in Motion Event Description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunger, Ann; Papafragou, Anna; Trueswell, John C.

    2013-01-01

    This priming study investigates the role of conceptual structure during language production, probing whether English speakers are sensitive to the structure of the event encoded by a prime sentence. In two experiments, participants read prime sentences aloud before describing motion events. Primes differed in 1) syntactic frame, 2) degree of lexical and conceptual overlap with target events, and 3) distribution of event components within frames. Results demonstrate that conceptual overlap between primes and targets led to priming of (a) the information that speakers chose to include in their descriptions of target events, (b) the way that information was mapped to linguistic elements, and (c) the syntactic structures that were built to communicate that information. When there was no conceptual overlap between primes and targets, priming was not successful. We conclude that conceptual structure is a level of representation activated during priming, and that it has implications for both Message Planning and Linguistic Formulation. PMID:24072953

  18. Major, trace and REE geochemistry in contrasted chlorite schist weathering profiles from southern Cameroon: Influence of the Nyong and Dja Rivers water table fluctuations in geochemical evolution processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onana, Vincent Laurent; Ntouala, Roger Firmin Donald; Tang, Sylvie Noa; Effoudou, Estelle Ndome; Kamgang, Veronique Kabeyene; Ekodeck, Georges Emmanuel

    2016-12-01

    Three weathering profiles developed on chlorite schists, formations on which little studies have been conducted, were chosen to understand the weathering processes prevailing downslope in Southern Cameroon. The materials nearest to Nyong River at Ayos weather under the influence of the fluctuations of groundwater table and acid rain, while those from Bengbis and Mbalmayo weather under the influence of acid rain. The result is the thickening of materials and weathering profiles, without formation of a nodular ferruginous horizon at Ayos. The Ayos weathered materials (CIA ∼ 92) are the most altered and the least lateritised (IOL ∼ 32). The most stable systems are Hf - U - Nb - Ti - Zr - Mo - W (Bengbis), Yb - U - Nb - Ti - Zr - Hf - Mo - W - Th (Mbalmayo) and Th - Nb - Zr - Hf - Mo - Ta (Ayos). Molybdenum accumulations are important in the studied materials. Uranium accumulations are found only in Mbalmayo. Coarse saprolitic materials at Ayos are the most depleted and fractionated in REE ((La/Yb)N = 0.07, Ce/Ce* = 2.24), while superficial clayey materials are less fractionated. This process is reversed at Bengbis and Mbalmayo. By contrast, weathered materials at Ayos do not show any Eu anomalies (as in Bengbis and Mbalmayo). Weathered materials from Bengbis, nearest to the Dja River, have (La/Yb)N < 1 ratios, indicating the relative immobility of HREE relative to LREE due to xenotime abnormally rich in HREE (HREE-PO4). Weak Ce anomalies (1.05-2.24) are ubiquitous in all the studied materials.

  19. Dynamical contibution of Mean Potential Vorticity pseudo-observations derived from MetOp/GOME2 Ozone data into weather forecast, a Mediterranean High Precipitation Event study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sbii, Siham; Zazoui, Mimoun; Semane, Noureddine

    2015-04-01

    In the absence of observations covering the upper troposphere - lower stratophere, headquarters of several disturbances, and knowing that satellites are uniquely capable of providing uniform data coverage globally, a methodology is followed [1] to convert Total Column Ozone, observed by MetOp/GOME2, into pseudo-observations of Mean Potential Vorticity (MPV). The aim is to study the dynamical impact of Ozone data in the prediction of a Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Event observed during 28-29 September 2012 in the context of HYMEX1. This study builds on a previously described methodology [2] that generates numerical weather prediction model initial conditions from ozone data. Indeed, the assimilation of MPV in a 3D-var framework is based on a linear regression between observed Ozone and vertical integrated Ertel PV. The latter is calculated using dynamical fields from the moroccan operational limited area model ALADIN-MAROC according to [3]: δθ fp p0 -R δU δV P V = - gξaδp- g-R-(p )Cp [(δp-)2 + (δp-)2] (1) Where ξa is the vertical component of the absolute vorticity, U and V the horizontal wind components, θ the potential temperature, R gas constant, Cp specific heat at constant pressure, p the pressure, p0 a reference pressure, g the gravity and f is the Coriolis parameter. The MPV is estimated using the following expression: --1--∫ P2 M PV = P1 - P2 P P V.δp 1 (2) With P1 = 500hPa and P2 = 100hPa In the present study, the linear regression is performed over September 2012 with a correlation coefficient of 0.8265 and is described as follows: M P V = 5.314610- 2 *O3 - 13.445 (3) where O3 and MPV are given in Dobson Unit (DU) and PVU (1 PV U = 10-6 m2 K kg-1 s-1), respectively. It is found that the ozone-influenced upper-level initializing fields affect the precipitation forecast, as diagnosed by a comparison with the ECMWF model. References [1] S. Sbii, N. Semane, Y. Michel, P. Arbogast and M. Zazoui (2012). Using METOP/GOME-2 data and MSG ozone

  20. Evaluating effects of climate variability, extreme weather events and thinning on carbon and water exchanges in managed temperate forests in eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arain, M.; Brodeur, J. J.; Trant, J.; Thorne, R.; Peichl, M.; Kula, M.; Parsaud, A.; Khader, R.

    2013-12-01

    In this study the impact of climate variability and extreme weather events on gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), ecosystem respiration (RE), net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and evapotranspiration (E) is evaluated in an age-sequence (74-, 39- and 11-years old) of temperate pine (Pinus strobus L.) forests, north of Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada using ten years (2003-2012) of eddy covariance flux and meteorological data. Fluxes from conifer stands are also compared with measurements made in an 80-year-old deciduous (Carolinian) forest, established in 2012. All four sites are managed forests and part of the Turkey Point Flux Station and global Fluxnet. Ten-year mean NEP values were 169 (75 to 312), 371 (305 to 456, over 2008-2012) and 141 (-10 to 420) g C/m2/year in the 74-, 39-, and 11-year-old stand, respectively, while mean NEP in the 80-year-old deciduous stand was 286 g C/m2/year in 2012. This region is affected by low frequency climate oscillations, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The study period experienced four distinct extreme weather patterns: warm and dry springs in 2005 and 2012, extremely wet and warm summer in 2006, a summer drought in 2007 and warm summers in 2010 and 2012. In February-March 2012, the 74-year-old stand was selectively thinned and approximately 30% of trees were removed to improve light and water availability and stimulate growth of remaining trees. Thinning and warm/dry spring reduced NEP in the first post-thinning year, with mean annual NEP of 75 g C/m2/year in 2012. Increased supply of dead organic matter and warm temperatures in 2012 increased RE much more than GEP, resulting in lower annual NEP. Heat stress and drought in spring of 2005 reduced NEP of the 74-year stand to 78 g C/m2/year. The impact of this extreme weather event on NEP was similar to that observed in 2012 when stand experienced a drastic structural change, dry spring and warm temperatures throughout the

  1. Influences of weather on Ixodes scapularis nymphal densities at long-term study sites in Connecticut.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Laura E; Scott, Jennifer A; Stafford, Kirby C

    2015-04-01

    Tick species worldwide are implicated in transmission of pathogens that cause mild to severe diseases in humans and livestock. Although tick population densities are often highly correlated with tick-borne disease rates, we currently know little about which factors underlie annual changes in those tick population densities. We used a 25-year dataset of Ixodes scapularis drag-sampling surveys at two locations in CT, USA, to investigate the relationship between average nymphal density from mid-May to mid-August and monthly, lagged regional weather variables. The dataset was randomly split into two data subsets, one for hypothesis development and one for hypothesis testing. Nymphal density showed the strongest association with the Standardized Precipitation Index for January of the same year that density data were collected in the analysis based on the hypothesis development data subset. This association was positive; nymphal tick density increased with regional winter precipitation. Nymphal density was positively associated with this same weather variable in the hypothesis testing data subset. Weather conditions during the coldest months of the year may serve as a bottleneck to tick populations, thereby functioning as an important correlate of not only annual blacklegged tick nymphal densities the following summer, but also entomological risk associated with tick-borne pathogens transmitted by this species. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  2. [Influence of weather in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction in Galicia (Spain)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-García, José Manuel; Dosil Díaz, Olga; Taboada Hidalgo, Juan José; Fernández, José Ramón; Sánchez-Santos, Luis

    2015-08-07

    To assess the interactions between weather and the impact of each individual meteorological parameters in the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions (AMI) in Galicia. Retrospective study analyzing the number of AMI diagnosed and transferred to the hospital by the Emergencies Sanitary System of Galicia between 2002 and 2009. We included patients with clinical and ECG findings of AMI. The correlation between 10-minute meteorological variables (temperature, humidity, pressure, accumulated rainfall and wind speed) recorded by MeteoGalicia and the incidence of AMI was assessed. A total of 4,717 AMI were registered (72.8% men, 27.2% women). No seasonal variations were found. No significant correlations were detected with regard to average daily temperature (P=.683) or wind speed (P=.895). Correlation between atmospheric pressure and incidence of AMI was significant (P<.005), as well as with the daily relative humidity average (P=.005). Our study showed a statistical significant association with atmospheric pressure and with the daily relative humidity average. Since the local conditions of weather are widely variable, future studies should establish the relationship between weather patterns (including combinations of meteorological parameters), rather than seasonal variations, and the incidence of AMI. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  3. Extratropical Cyclogenesis and Frontal Waves on Mars: Influences on Dust, Weather and the Planet's climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

    2012-01-01

    Between late autumn and early spring, middle and high latitudes on Mars exhibit strong equatortopole mean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic periodwaves) [1,2]. For a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, these large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. The wavelike disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Through cyclonic/anticyclonic winds, intense shear deformations, contractions-dilatations in temperature and density, and sharp perturbations amongst atmospheric tracers (i.e., dust, volatiles (e.g., water vapor) and condensates (e.g., water-ice cloud particles)), Mars extratropical weather systems have significant subsynoptic scale ramifications by supporting atmospheric frontal waves (Fig. 1).

  4. Influence of weather factors on seasonal population dynamics of Coelaenomenodera elaeidis (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae and its natural enemies in NIFOR, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Aneni

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The leaf miner (Coelaenomenodera elaeidis Mlk is the major pest of the oil palm. The seasonality of C. elaeidis, its natural enemies and their relationship with temperature, rainfall and relative humidity was observed between January 2009 and December 2010 at the main station of the Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research, Nigeria. Past leaf miner population estimates were obtained from NIFOR entomology division from 1976 - 1980. This study analyses temporal patterns in leaf miner abundance, and elucidates general patterns and factors influencing leaf miner abundance. Multiple linear regressions were used to analyze the relationship between abundance of leaf miner, its parasitoids and predators and the following climatic variables: maximum and minimum temperature (oC, rainfall (mm and relative humidity (%. For the analyses, climate variables from the month of collection (control variable or from the month before the collection (delayed variable were used. The abundance of leaf miner and predatory ants peaked in the dry season, while parasitoids were most abundant in the rainy season. Significant correlations (P is not great than 0.05 were found between leaf miner, its natural enemies and both control and delayed weather variables. For all years, maximum temperature was the most dominant variable for all the leaf miner stages. Significant correlations were found between leaf miner, its natural enemies and both control and delayed weather variables. This indicates that the weather variables at both the month of collection and with a delayed month in relation to collection is critical for pest-weather evaluation. This is important for leaf miner control. Temperature, rainfall and relative humidity had an effect on the population of C. elaeidis, and this effect was manifested primarily in seasonal fluctuations in oil palm agroecosystems. Dry season months with resultant higher temperatures recorded higher population of C. elaeidis.

  5. Spatiotemporal Variance of Global Horizontal Moisture Transport and the Influence of Strong ENSO Events Using ERA-Interim Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutta, E. J.; Hubbart, J. A.; Svoma, B. M.; Eichler, T. P.; Lupo, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented as a leading source of seasonal to inter-annual variations in global weather and climate. Strong ENSO events have been shown to alter the location and magnitude of Hadley and Walker circulations that maintain equilibrium at tropical latitudes and regulate moisture transport into mid-latitude storm tracks. Broad impacts associated with ENSO events include anomalous regional precipitation (ARP) and temperature patterns and subsequent impacts to socioeconomic and human health systems. Potential socioeconomic and human health impacts range from regional changes in water resources and agricultural productivity to local storm water management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. Evidence is mounting to suggest that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency of heavy precipitation events, which compounds impacts of ARP patterns associated with strong El Nino events. Therefore, the need exists to identify common regional patterns of spatiotemporal variance of horizontal moisture flux (HMF) during months (Oct-Feb) associated with the peak intensity (Oceanic Nino Index [ONI]) of the three strongest El Nino (ONI > µ + 2σ) and La Nina (ONI improved seasonal precipitation forecasts at regional scales and subsequent improvements to local water resource management. There is potential for future work objectively comparing these results with output from Earth System Models to improve representation of ENSO's influence on spatiotemporal variance of horizontal moisture transport.

  6. COST Action ES1206: Advanced GNSS Tropospheric Products for Monitoring Severe Weather Events and Climate (GNSS4SWEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jonathan; Guerova, Guergana; Dousa, Jan; Dick, Galina; de Haan, Siebren; Pottiaux, Eric; Bock, Olivier; Pacione, Rosa

    2017-04-01

    GNSS is a well established atmospheric observing technique which can accurately sense atmospheric water vapour, the most abundant greenhouse gas, accounting for up to 70% of atmospheric warming. Water vapour is typically under-sampled in modern operational meteorological observing systems and obtaining and exploiting additional high-quality humidity observations is essential to improve weather forecasting and climate monitoring. COST Action ES1206 is a 4-year project, running from 2013 to 2017, which is coordinating the research activities and improved capabilities from concurrent developments in the GNSS, meteorological and climate communities. For the first time, the synergy of multi-GNSS constellations is used to develop new, more advanced tropospheric products, exploiting the full potential of multi-GNSS on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales - from real-time products monitoring and forecasting severe weather, to the highest quality post-processed products suitable for climate research. The Action also promotes the use of meteorological data as an input to real-time GNSS services and is stimulating the transfer of knowledge and data throughout Europe and beyond.

  7. Tectonic uplift and denudation rate influence soil chemical weathering intensity in a semi-arid environment, southeast Spain: physico-chemical and mineralogical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Opfergelt, Sophie; Schoonejans, Jérôme; Vanacker, Veerle; Sonnet, Philippe; Delmelle, Pierre

    2015-04-01

    Tectonic uplift is known to influence denudation rates. Denudation, including chemical weathering and physical erosion, affects soil production rates and weathering intensities. At topographic steady state, weathering can be transport- or weathering-limited. In the transport-limited regime, low denudation rates should lead to comparatively high weathering intensities, while in the weathering-limited case high denudation rates are associated with lower weathering intensities. Here, we test if this relationship applies to semi-arid environments where chemical weathering is generally slow. Three catchments (EST, FIL and CAB) were studied in the Internal Zone of the Betic Cordillera in southeast Spain, spanning a range of increasing uplift rates (10-170 mm/kyr) and increasing denudation rates (20-250 mm/kyr) from EST to CAB. In each catchment, two ridgetop soil profiles were sampled down to the bedrock. The three catchments have similar vegetation and climatic conditions, with precipitation of 250- 315 mm/yr and mean annual temperature of 15-17 °C. The mineralogy of the bedrock, as determined by XRD, is similar across the three catchments and is characterized by the presence of quartz, muscovite, clinochlore, biotite and plagioclase. This primary mineral assemblage is also found in the catchment soils, indicating that the soils studied derive from the same parent material. The soil clay-size fraction is dominated by kaolinite, vermiculite and illite. However, the proportions of the soil primary and secondary minerals vary between the catchment sites. The abundance of biotite decreases from CAB (14%) to EST (4%), whereas the quartz and clay contents show an opposite tendency (from 30 to 69% and 9.9 to 14.3%, respectively). Further, the abundance of vermiculite increases from CAB to EST. The results are interpreted in terms of increasing weathering intensity from CAB to EST by weathering of biotite into vermiculite and enrichment of soils on more weathering resistant

  8. Moving Events in Time: Time-Referent Hand-Arm Movements Influence Perceived Temporal Distance to Past Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blom, Stephanie S. A. H.; Semin, Gun R.

    2013-01-01

    We examine and find support for the hypothesis that time-referent hand-arm movements influence temporal judgments. In line with the concept of "left is associated with earlier times, and right is associated with later times," we show that performing left (right) hand-arm movements while thinking about a past event increases (decreases) the…

  9. Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather. Part 11: Meteorological Aspects of the Battle of Waterloo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, J.

    1993-03-01

    The Waterloo Campaign extended from 15 to 18 June 1815, with the decisive Battle of Waterloo taking place on the 18th. The campaign involved the "Army of the North" of Napoleon on the one hand, and the Anglo-Dutch and Prussian armies on the other. The latter were commanded, respectively, by the Duke of Wellington and Prince Blücher. A shallow but active low and associated warm and cold fronts crossed the battle area on the 16th and 17th.The weather had important effects on the battles. On the 16th, in a battle between part of the French army and part of the Prussian army, at the village of Ligny, about 40 km south-southeast of Brussels, thunderstorms connected with the passage of the aforementioned warm front made the use of muskets impracticable.However, the most important weather effects developed on the 17th and during the night from the 17th to the 18th. Violent thunderstorms occurred early in the afternoon of the 17th close to Ligny, while Napoleon was in the process of attacking the Anglo-Dutch force at Quatre Bras. The rains turned the ground into a quagmire, making it impossible for the French artillery and cavalry, and even for the infantry, to move across the fields in extended order, as required by the emperor. The French advance was so greatly slowed down that Wellington was able to withdraw his lighter force to a better position near Waterloo. Thus, the Anglo-Dutch force was almost completely preserved for the decisive battle of the next day.The rainshowers of the 17th and the night from the 17th to the 18th softened the ground to an extent that, on the morning of the 18th, Napoleon and his artillery experts judged that the battle-the Battle of Waterloo-could not be started before a late hour of the forenoon [1130 local standard time (LST)]. Until the arrival of the Prussian force, about 1600 LST and later, the battle tended to go in favor of the French, but the Prussians turned the tide of the fighting.The paper quotes judgments of military

  10. The influence of weather and lemmings on spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in the arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Barry G; Franke, Alastair; Derocher, Andrew E

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is occurring more rapidly in the Arctic than other places in the world, which is likely to alter the distribution and abundance of migratory birds breeding there. A warming climate can provide benefits to birds by decreasing spring snow cover, but increases in the frequency of summer rainstorms, another product of climate change, may reduce foraging opportunities for insectivorous birds. Cyclic lemming populations in the Arctic also influence bird abundance because Arctic foxes begin consuming bird eggs when lemmings decline. The complex interaction between summer temperature, precipitation, and the lemming cycle hinder our ability to predict how Arctic-breeding birds will respond to climate change. The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between annual variation in weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance and spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in a tundra ecosystem in central Nunavut, Canada: songbirds, shorebirds, gulls, loons, and geese. We spatially stratified our study area based on vegetation productivity, terrain ruggedness, and freshwater abundance, and conducted distance sampling to estimate strata-specific densities of each guild during the summers of 2010-2012. We also monitored temperature, rainfall, spring snow cover, and lemming abundance each year. Spatial variation in bird abundance matched what was expected based on previous ecological knowledge, but weather and lemming abundance also significantly influenced the abundance of some guilds. In particular, songbirds were less abundant during the cool, wet summer with moderate snow cover, and shorebirds and gulls declined with lemming abundance. The abundance of geese did not vary over time, possibly because benefits created by moderate spring snow cover were offset by increased fox predation when lemmings were scarce. Our study provides an example of a simple way to monitor the correlation between weather, spring snow

  11. COST Action ES1206: Advanced GNSS Tropospheric Products for Monitoring Severe Weather Events and Climate (GNSS4SWEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jonathan; Guerova, Guergana; Dousa, Jan; Dick, Galina; de Haan, Siebren; Pottiaux, Eric; Bock, Olivier; Pacione, Rosa

    2016-04-01

    GNSS is a well established atmospheric observing system which can accurately sense water vapour, the most abundant greenhouse gas, accounting for 60-70% of atmospheric warming. Water vapour observations are currently under-sampled in operational meteorology and obtaining and exploiting additional high-quality humidity observations is essential to improve severe weather forecasting and climate monitoring. Inconsistencies introduced into long-term time series from improved GNSS processing algorithms make climate trend analysis challenging. Ongoing re-processing efforts using state-of-the-art models are underway which will provide consistent time series' of tropospheric data, using 15+ years of GNSS observations and from over 600 stations worldwide. These datasets will enable validation of systematic biases from a range of instrumentation, improve the knowledge of climatic trends of atmospheric water vapour, and will potentially be of great benefit to global and regional NWP reanalyses and climate model simulations (e.g. IPCC AR5)

  12. Statistical analysis of agronomical factors and weather conditions influencing deoxynivalenol levels in oats in Scandinavia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindblad, M; Börjesson, T; Hietaniemi, V; Elen, O

    2012-01-01

    The relationship between weather data and agronomical factors and deoxynivalenol (DON) levels in oats was examined with the aim of developing a predictive model. Data were collected from a total of 674 fields during periods of up to 10 years in Finland, Norway and Sweden, and included DON levels in the harvested oats crop, agronomical factors and weather data. The results show that there was a large regional variation in DON levels, with higher levels in one region in Norway compared with other regions in Norway, Finland and Sweden. In this region the median DON level was 1000 ng g⁻¹ and the regulatory limit for human consumption (1750 ng g⁻¹) was exceeded in 28% of the samples. In other regions the median DON levels ranged from 75 to 270 ng g⁻¹, and DON levels exceeded 1750 ng g⁻¹ in 3-8% of the samples. Including more variables than region in a multiple regression model only increased the adjusted coefficient of determination from 0.17 to 0.24, indicating that very little of the variation in DON levels could be explained by weather data or agronomical factors. Thus, it was not possible to predict DON levels based on the variables included in this study. Further studies are needed to solve this problem. Apparently the infection and/or growth of DON producing Fusarium species are promoted in certain regions. One possibility may be to study the species distribution of fungal communities and their changes during the oats cultivation period in more detail.

  13. Evaluation of stochastic weather generators for capturing the statistics of extreme precipitation events in the Catskill Mountain watersheds, New York State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, N.; Frei, A.; Owens, E. M.; Chen, J.

    2015-12-01

    Watersheds located in the Catskill Mountains area, part of the eastern plateau climate region of New York, contributes about 90% of New York City's municipal water supply, serving 9 million New Yorkers with about 1.2 billion gallons of clean drinking water each day. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection has an ongoing series of studies to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the availability of high quality water in this water supply system. Recent studies identify increasing trends in total precipitation and in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in this region. The objectives of the present study are: to analyze the proba­bilistic structure of extreme precipitation based on historical observations: and to evaluate the abilities of stochastic weather generators (WG), statistical models that produce synthetic weather time series based on observed statistical properties at a particular location, to simulate the statistical properties of extreme precipitation events over this region. The generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) has been applied to the annual block maxima of precipitation for 60 years (1950 to 2009) observed data in order to estimate the events with return periods of 50, 75, and 100 years. These results were then used to evaluate a total of 13 WGs were : 12 parametric WGs including all combinations of three different orders of Markov chain (MC) models (1st , 2nd and 3rd) and four different probability distributions (exponential, gamma, skewed normal and mixed exponential); and one semi parametric WG based on k-nearest neighbor bootstrapping. Preliminary results suggest that three-parameter (skewed normal and mixed exponential distribution) and semi-parametric (k-nearest neighbor bootstrapping) WGs are more consistent with observations. It is also found that first order MC models perform as well as second or third order MC models.

  14. Plant development scores from fixed-date photographs: the influence of weather variables and recorder experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, T. H.; Huber, K.; Croxton, P. J.

    2006-05-01

    In 1944, John Willis produced a summary of his meticulous record keeping of weather and plants over the 30 years 1913 1942. This publication contains fixed-date, fixed-subject photography taken on the 1st of each month from January to May, using as subjects snowdrop Galanthus nivalis, daffodil Narcissus pseudo-narcissus, horse chestnut Aesculus hippocastanum and beech Fagus sylvatica. We asked 38 colleagues to assess rapidly the plant development in each of these photographs according to a supplied five-point score. The mean scores from this exercise were assessed in relation to mean monthly weather variables preceding the date of the photograph and the consistency of scoring was examined according to the experience of the recorders. Plant development was more strongly correlated with mean temperature than with minimum or maximum temperatures or sunshine. No significant correlations with rainfall were detected. Whilst mean scores were very similar, botanists were more consistent in their scoring of developmental stages than non-botanists. However, there was no overall pattern for senior staff to be more consistent in scoring than junior staff. These results suggest that scoring of plant development stages on fixed dates could be a viable method of assessing the progress of the season. We discuss whether such recording could be more efficient than traditional phenology, especially in those sites that are not visited regularly and hence are less amenable to frequent or continuous observation to assess when a plant reaches a particular growth stage.

  15. Fabric anisotropy and its influence on physical weathering of different types of Carrara marbles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiss, Bernd; Weiss, Thomas

    2000-11-01

    To evaluate the texture-controlled part on the thermally induced degradation of marbles, the anisotropic thermal dilatation was calculated from texture analyses of four exemplary samples from the Carrara area in Italy and compared to experimentally measured dilatation coefficients. The thermal dilatation as determined in the experiment is controlled by an intrinsic part (anisotropic single crystal properties and texture) and an extrinsic part (e.g. thermally induced microcracks). As expected from theoretical calculations, there is a correlation between the strongest dilatation and the c-axis maxima and the weakest dilatation and the a-axis maxima according to the single crystal data of calcite. However, a quantitative correlation could not be established. Obviously, other fabric parameters like the grain size, grain shape anisotropies, grain boundary geometries and microcrack formation during heating modify the texture-controlled part significantly. After thermal treatment up to 130°C, all samples show a residual strain. However, the magnitude and directional dependence is remarkably different and is unequivocally correlated to both the microstructure and the texture. Since the number of parameters controlling the physical weathering is very large, a comprehensive quantification of fabrics is indispensible for the understanding of thermally controlled degradation processes of physical weathering in marbles.

  16. Mesoscale and Local Scale Evaluations of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates by Weather Radar Products during a Heavy Rainfall Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basile Pauthier

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A 24-hour heavy rainfall event occurred in northeastern France from November 3 to 4, 2014. The accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE by PANTHERE and ANTILOPE radar-based gridded products during this particular event, is examined at both mesoscale and local scale, in comparison with two reference rain-gauge networks. Mesoscale accuracy was assessed for the total rainfall accumulated during the 24-hour event, using the Météo France operational rain-gauge network. Local scale accuracy was assessed for both total event rainfall and hourly rainfall accumulations, using the recently developed HydraVitis high-resolution rain gauge network Evaluation shows that (1 PANTHERE radar-based QPE underestimates rainfall fields at mesoscale and local scale; (2 both PANTHERE and ANTILOPE successfully reproduced the spatial variability of rainfall at local scale; (3 PANTHERE underestimates can be significantly improved at local scale by merging these data with rain gauge data interpolation (i.e., ANTILOPE. This study provides a preliminary evaluation of radar-based QPE at local scale, suggesting that merged products are invaluable for applications at very high resolution. The results obtained underline the importance of using high-density rain-gauge networks to obtain information at high spatial and temporal resolution, for better understanding of local rainfall variation, to calibrate remotely sensed rainfall products.

  17. Structure and predictive skill of strong northeasterly wind events using a limited area numerical weather prediction model at Iqaluit, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M. Hanesiak

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Strong northeasterly wind events are infrequent over Baffin Island, but are potentially hazardous for aviation and the local community of Iqaluit (the capital of Nunavut, Canada. Three strong northeasterly wind events in this region are examined in this study, using the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale-Limited Area Model (GEM-LAM with a horizontal grid spacing of 2.5 km; in-situ observations; and reanalysis data. The skill of the GEM-LAM in simulating these events is examined. With the exception of one event, the GEM-LAM was successful at predicting the large-scale flow in terms of the circulation pattern, timing of the synoptic set-up and the low-level flow over the Hall Peninsula. The onset and cessation of strong winds and timing of major wind shifts was typically well handled by the model to within ~3 h, but with a tendency to underestimate the peak wind speed. The skill of the surface wind forecasts at Iqaluit is critically dependent on the predicted timing and location of the hydraulic jump and the grid point selected to represent Iqaluit. Examination of the observed and modelled data suggest that the strong northeasterly wind events have several features in common: (1 strong gradient-driven flow across the Hall Peninsula, (2 mean-state critical layer (or reverse shear over the Hall Peninsula, (3 a low-level inversion, typically above the maximum barrier height immediately upstream of the Hall Peninsula, (4 subcritical flow, typically present upstream of the Hall Peninsula and (5 a hydraulic jump in the vicinity of Frobisher Bay. The modelled atmospheric conditions upwind of the Hall Peninsula immediately prior to the formation of the hydraulic jump (and acceleration of winds over the lee slope are largely consistent with the prediction of propagating hydraulic jumps presented in the literature.

  18. The influence of weather on the risk of pain exacerbation in patients with knee osteoarthritis - a case-crossover study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, M L; Zhang, Y; Metcalf, B; Makovey, J; Bennell, K L; March, L; Hunter, D J

    2016-12-01

    To quantify the risk of knee pain exacerbation associated with temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and precipitation in persons with knee osteoarthritis. A web-based case-crossover study was conducted. Participants with a diagnosis of symptomatic, radiographic knee osteoarthritis were measured at baseline and followed for 3 months. Participants were instructed to log on to the study website if they perceived experiencing knee pain exacerbation (hazard period). Pain exacerbation was defined as an increase of ≥2 on a 0-10 numeric rating scale (NRS) from the participant's mildest pain reported at baseline. A time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted to anchor the corresponding hazard date to four control periods within a particular 35-day interval. Data on maximum and minimum temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), barometric pressure (hPa) and precipitation (mm) were obtained for the hazard and control periods from the publicly available meteorological database of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The associations were assessed using conditional logistic regression. Of the 345 participants recruited, 171 participants (women: 64%, mean age: 62 years, mean BMI: 30.2 kg/m(2)) experienced at least one episode of pain exacerbation, yielding 1,425 observations included in the analyses. There was no apparent association between temperature, relative humidity, air pressure or precipitation and risk of knee pain exacerbation. Despite anecdotal reports from patients, change in weather factors does not appear to influence the risk of pain exacerbation in persons with knee osteoarthritis. Additional studies should quantify the association of weather and risk of pain exacerbation in regions with more extreme weather conditions. Copyright © 2016 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Assessing Extreme Events for Anthropogenic Influence: Examples of Recent Cases for Australian Temperatures, U.S. Precipitation, and Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, T. R.; Zeng, F. J.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Duffy, P.; Arnold, J. R.; Massey, C.; Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Bender, M.; Morin, M.

    2014-12-01

    The degree to which particular extreme weather and climate events are assessed as being attributable to anthropogenic climate change (e.g., that anthropogenic forcing influenced their probability of occurrence or other characteristics) can vary dramatically from case to case. One example assessed at GFDL is the record or near-record annual mean temperature over a large region of Australia in 2013. According to this analysis of the CMIP5 models, the event was largely attributable to anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. Another 2013 case was the extreme positive annual mean precipitation anomalies in 5x5 degree gridded (GHCN) precipitation data that were observed along the U.S./Canadian border region. This is a region with a detectable long-term increase of precipitation since 1900. Nonetheless, the 2013 event is assessed as primarily attributable to internal (unforced) climate variability and only partly attributable to external forcing (natural and anthropogenic combined). There are many outstanding challenges to these studies. Among these are the limitations to historical data length, data quality, model ensemble size, and model control run length. Furthermore, there is room for improvement in addressing model biases, station/gridcell scale mismatches, modeling the extreme ends of the distributions e.g. with Generalized Extreme Value methods, etc. Another project assesses anthropogenic influences on the track and evolution (but not the likelihood) of Sandy-like storms. Assuming the existence of a Sandy-like storm under non-industrial conditions, we use CMIP5 model simulations, a global atmospheric model time slice experiment, and regional hurricane model idealized simulations to suggest that the unusual left turn the storm took may have been made more likely by anthropogenic climate forcing. This does not imply that Sandy-like events are less likely in the non-industrial climate, because we assumed the existence of such a storm to begin with.

  20. Vegetation structure and fire weather influence variation in burn severity and fuel consumption during peatland wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Davies

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Temperate peatland wildfires are of significant environmental concern but information on their environmental effects is lacking. We assessed variation in burn severity and fuel consumption within and between wildfires that burnt British moorlands in 2011 and 2012. We adapted the Composite Burn Index (pCBI to provide semi-quantitative estimates of burn severity. Pre- and post-fire surface (shrubs and graminoids and ground (litter, moss, duff fuel loads associated with large wildfires were assessed using destructive sampling and analysed using a Generalised Linear Mixed Model (GLMM. Consumption during wildfires was compared with published estimates of consumption during prescribed burns. Burn severity and fuel consumption were related to fire weather, assessed using the Canadian Fire Weather Index System (FWI System, and pre-fire fuel structure. pCBI varied 1.6 fold between, and up to 1.7 fold within, wildfires. pCBI was higher where moisture codes of the FWI System indicated drier fuels. Spatial variation in pre- and post-fire fuel load accounted for a substantial proportion of the variance in fuel loads. Average surface fuel consumption was a linear function of pre-fire fuel load. Average ground fuel combustion completeness could be predicted by the Buildup Index. Carbon release ranged between 0.36 and 1.00 kg C m−2. The flammability of ground fuel layers may explain the higher C release-rates seen for wildfires in comparison to prescribed burns. Drier moorland community types appear to be at greater risk of severe burns than blanket-bog communities.

  1. Improving solar wind persistence forecasts: Removing transient space weather events, and using observations away from the Sun-Earth line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohutova, Petra; Bocquet, François-Xavier; Henley, Edmund M.; Owens, Matthew J.

    2016-10-01

    This study demonstrates two significant ways of improving persistence forecasts of the solar wind, which exploit the relatively unchanging nature of the ambient solar wind to provide 27 day forecasts, when using data from the Lagrangian L1 point. Such forecasts are useful as a prediction tool for the ambient wind, and for benchmarking of solar wind models. We show that solar wind persistence forecasts can be improved by removing transient solar wind features such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Using CME indicators to automatically identify CME-contaminated periods in ACE data from 1998 to 2011, and replacing these with solar wind from a previous synodic rotation, persistence forecasts improve (relative to a baseline): skill scores for Bz, a crucial parameter for determining solar wind geoeffectiveness, improve by 7.7 percentage points when using a proton temperature-based indicator with good operational potential. We also show that persistence forecasts can be improved by using measurements away from L1, to reduce the requirement on coronal stability for an entire synodic period, at the cost of reduced lead time. Using STEREO-B data from 2007 to 2013 to create such a reduced lead time persistence forecast, we show that Bz skill scores improve by 17.1 percentage points relative to ACE. Finally, we report on implications for persistence forecasts from any future missions to the L5 Lagrangian point and on the successful operational implementation (in spring 2015) of the normal (ACE-based) and reduced lead time (STEREO-based) persistence forecasts in the Met Office's Space Weather Operations Centre, as well as plans for future improvements.

  2. Large Scale Influences on Drought and Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collow, A.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Koster, R. D.; Eichmann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Observations indicate that extreme weather events are increasing and it is likely that this trend will continue through the 21st century. However, there is uncertainty and disagreement in recent literature regarding the mechanisms by which extreme temperature and precipitation events are increasing, including the suggestion that enhanced Arctic warming has resulted in an increase in blocking events and a more meridional flow. A steady gradual increase in heavy precipitation events has been observed in the Midwestern and Northeastern United States, while the Southwestern United States, particularly California, has experienced suppressed precipitation and an increase in consecutive dry days over the past few years. The frequency, intensity, and duration of heavy precipitation events in the Midwestern United States and Northeastern United States, as well as drought in the Southwestern United States are examined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2). Indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices representing drought and heavy precipitation events have been calculated using the MERRA-2 dataset for the period of 1980 through 2014. Trends in these indices are analyzed and the indices are compared to large scale circulations and climate modes using a composite and statistical linkages approach. Statistically significant correlations are present in the summer months between heavy precipitation events and meridional flow despite the lack of enhanced Arctic warming, contradicting the suggested mechanisms. Weaker, though still significant, correlations are observed in the winter months when the Arctic is warming more rapidly than the Midlatitudes.

  3. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti and dengue as influenced by weather and human behavior in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Barrera

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies on the influence of weather on Aedes aegypti dynamics in Puerto Rico suggested that rainfall was a significant driver of immature mosquito populations and dengue incidence, but mostly in the drier areas of the island. We conducted a longitudinal study of Ae. aegypti in two neighborhoods of the metropolitan area of San Juan city, Puerto Rico where rainfall is more uniformly distributed throughout the year. We assessed the impacts of rainfall, temperature, and human activities on the temporal dynamics of adult Ae. aegypti and oviposition. Changes in adult mosquitoes were monitored with BG-Sentinel traps and oviposition activity with CDC enhanced ovitraps. Pupal surveys were conducted during the drier and wetter parts of the year in both neighborhoods to determine the contribution of humans and rains to mosquito production. Mosquito dynamics in each neighborhood was compared with dengue incidence in their respective municipalities during the study. Our results showed that: 1. Most pupae were produced in containers managed by people, which explains the prevalence of adult mosquitoes at times when rainfall was scant; 2. Water meters were documented for the first time as productive habitats for Ae. aegypti; 3. Even though Puerto Rico has a reliable supply of tap water and an active tire recycling program, water storage containers and discarded tires were important mosquito producers; 4. Peaks in mosquito density preceded maximum dengue incidence; and 5. Ae. aegypti dynamics were driven by weather and human activity and oviposition was significantly correlated with dengue incidence.

  4. Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Dengue as Influenced by Weather and Human Behavior in San Juan, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrera, Roberto; Amador, Manuel; MacKay, Andrew J.

    2011-01-01

    Previous studies on the influence of weather on Aedes aegypti dynamics in Puerto Rico suggested that rainfall was a significant driver of immature mosquito populations and dengue incidence, but mostly in the drier areas of the island. We conducted a longitudinal study of Ae. aegypti in two neighborhoods of the metropolitan area of San Juan city, Puerto Rico where rainfall is more uniformly distributed throughout the year. We assessed the impacts of rainfall, temperature, and human activities on the temporal dynamics of adult Ae. aegypti and oviposition. Changes in adult mosquitoes were monitored with BG-Sentinel traps and oviposition activity with CDC enhanced ovitraps. Pupal surveys were conducted during the drier and wetter parts of the year in both neighborhoods to determine the contribution of humans and rains to mosquito production. Mosquito dynamics in each neighborhood was compared with dengue incidence in their respective municipalities during the study. Our results showed that: 1. Most pupae were produced in containers managed by people, which explains the prevalence of adult mosquitoes at times when rainfall was scant; 2. Water meters were documented for the first time as productive habitats for Ae. aegypti; 3. Even though Puerto Rico has a reliable supply of tap water and an active tire recycling program, water storage containers and discarded tires were important mosquito producers; 4. Peaks in mosquito density preceded maximum dengue incidence; and 5. Ae. aegypti dynamics were driven by weather and human activity and oviposition was significantly correlated with dengue incidence. PMID:22206021

  5. Effect of densifying the GNSS GBAS network on monitoring the troposphere zenith total delay and precipitable water vapour content during severe weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapłon, Jan; Stankunavicius, Gintautas

    2016-04-01

    The dense ground based augmentation networks can provide the important information for monitoring the state of neutral atmosphere. The GNSS&METEO research group at Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences (WUELS) is operating the self-developed near real-time service estimating the troposphere parameters from GNSS data for the area of Poland. The service is operational since December 2012 and it's results calculated from ASG-EUPOS GBAS network (120 stations) data are supporting the EGVAP (http://egvap.dmi.dk) project. At first the zenith troposphere delays (ZTD) were calculated in hourly intervals, but since September 2015 the service was upgraded to include SmartNet GBAS network (Leica Geosystems Polska - 150 stations). The upgrade included as well: increasing the result interval to 30 minutes, upgrade from Bernese GPS Software v. 5.0 to Bernese GNSS Software v. 5.2 and estimation of the ZTD and it's horizontal gradients. Processing includes nowadays 270 stations. The densification of network from 70 km of mean distance between stations to 40 km created the opportunity to investigate on it's impact on resolution of estimated ZTD and integrated water vapour content (IWV) fields during the weather events of high intensity. Increase in density of ZTD measurements allows to define better the meso-scale features within different synoptic systems (e.g. frontal waves, meso-scale convective systems, squall lines etc). These meso-scale structures, as a rule are short living but fast developing and hardly predictable by numerical models. Even so, such limited size systems can produce very hazardous phenomena - like widespread squalls and thunderstorms, tornadoes, heavy rains, snowfalls, hail etc. because of prevalence of Cb clouds with high concentration of IWV. Study deals with two meteorological events: 2015-09-01 with the devastating squalls and rainfall bringing 2M Euro loss of property in northern Poland and 2015-10-12 with the very active front bringing

  6. Space weathering of asteroidal surfaces. Influence on the UV-Vis spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaňuchová, Z.; Baratta, G. A.; Garozzo, M.; Strazzulla, G.

    2010-07-01

    Context. The surfaces of airless bodies in the Solar System are continuously altered by the bombardment of micrometeoroids and irradiation by solar wind, flares, and cosmic particles. Major effects of this process - space weathering - are darkening and “reddening” of the spectra of surface materials, as well as a “degrading” of absorption features. Aims: We studied the changes induced by energetic ion irradiation in the ultraviolet-visual-near-infrared (UV-Vis-NIR) (0.2-0.98 μm) reflectance spectra of targets selected to mimic the surfaces of airless bodies in the inner Solar System. Our chosen targets are olivine pellets, pure or covered by an organic polymer (polystyrene), which is transparent before irradiation. Polystyrene is used as a template for organic matter of low volatility that can be present on asteroidal surfaces. Moreover we measured the changes induced by ion irradiation in the absorption coefficient of the polymer. The purpose was to have a tool to better compare laboratory with observed spectra and distinguish between planetary objects with pure silicate surfaces and those whose surface is covered by organic matter exposed to cosmic ion bombardment. Methods: The samples were irradiated in vacuum, at room temperature, with 200 keV protons or 200-400 keV argon ions. Before, during, and after irradiation diffuse reflectance spectra were acquired. Polystyrene films were also deposited on quartz substrates and irradiated while transmittance spectra were recorded. Results: We measured the variations of the absorption coefficient of polystyrene as a function of ion fluence. We showed that after ion irradiation the diffuse reflectance spectra of the samples covered by organics exhibit a much more significant variation than those of pure silicates. The spectra of targets made of olivine plus polystyrene can be fitted by using the measured absorption coefficient of polystyrene. Conclusions: The results obtained for pure olivine extend to the UV the

  7. Events and Controversies: Influences of a Shocking News Event on Information Seeking

    CERN Document Server

    Koutra, Danai; Horvitz, Eric

    2014-01-01

    It has been suggested that online search and retrieval contributes to the intellectual isolation of users within their preexisting ideologies, where people's prior views are strengthened and alternative viewpoints are infrequently encountered. This so-called "filter bubble" phenomenon has been called out as especially detrimental when it comes to dialog among people on controversial, emotionally charged topics, such as the labeling of genetically modified food, the right to bear arms, the death penalty, and online privacy. We seek to identify and study information-seeking behavior and access to alternative versus reinforcing viewpoints following shocking, emotional, and large-scale news events. We choose for a case study to analyze search and browsing on gun control/rights, a strongly polarizing topic for both citizens and leaders of the United States. We study the period of time preceding and following a mass shooting to understand how its occurrence, follow-on discussions, and debate may have been linked to...

  8. THE INFLUENCE OF INTERCROPS AND FARMYARD MANURE FERTILIZATION IN CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON CONSUMPTION VALUE OF POTATO TUBERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANNA PŁAZA

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of research carried out over 1999-2002 with the aims to determine the influence of intercrops and farmyard manure fertilization on consumption value of potato tubers in changeable weather conditions. The following combinations of intercrops fertilization were taken into account: the control plot (without intercrop fertilization, farmyard manure, undersown crop (birdsfoot trefoil, birdsfoot trefoil + Italian ryegrass, Italian ryegrass, stubble crop (oleiferous radish, oleiferous radish – mulch. The results pointed that, the conditions of vegetation period, significantly modified the consumption values of potato tubers. The consumption value of potato tubers which were fertilized with intercrops was formed on approximated level, as the potato which was fertilized with farmyard manure. The best consumption features, especially taste, had potatoes which were fertilized with birdsfoot trefoil and with the mixture of birdsfoot trefoil and Italian ryegrass.

  9. The influence of regional urbanization and abnormal weather conditions on the processes of human climatic adaptation on mountain resorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artamonova, M.; Golitsyn, G.; Senik, I.; Safronov, A.; Babyakin, A.; Efimenko, N.; Povolotskaya, N.; Topuriya, D.; Chalaya, E.

    2012-04-01

    This work is a further development in the study of weather pathogenic index (WPI) and negative influence of urbanization processes on the state of people's health with adaptation disorder. This problem is socially significant. According to the data of the WHO, in the world there are from 20 to 45% of healthy people and from 40 to 80% of people with chronic diseases who suffer from the raised meteosensitivity. As a result of our researches of meteosensitivity of people during their short-duration on mountain resorts there were used negative adaptive reactions (NAR) under 26 routine tests, stress-reactions under L.H. Garkavi's hemogram, vegetative indices, tests of neuro-vascular reactivity, signs of imbalance of vegetative and neurohumoral regulation according to the data of biorhythm fractal analysis and sudden aggravations of diseases (SAD) as an indicator of negative climatic and urbanization influence. In 2010-2011 the Caucasian mountain resorts were having long periods of climatic anomalies, strengthening of anthropogenic emissions and forest fires when record-breaking high waves of NAR and SAD were noticed. There have also been specified indices ranks of weather pathogenicity from results of comparison of health characteristics with indicators of synoptico-dynamic processes according to Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); air ionization N+, N-, N+/N- spectra of aerosol particles (the size from 500 to 20000 nanometers) and concentrations of chemically active gases (O3, NO, NO2, ), volatile phytoorganic substances in the surface atmosphere, bactericidal characteristics of vegetation by criterion χ2 (not above 0,05). It has allowed us to develop new physiological optimum borders, norm and pessimum, to classify emergency ecologo-weather situations, to develop a new techniques of their forecasting and prevention of meteopathic reactions with meteosensitive patients (Method of treatment and the early (emergency) and planned prevention meteopatic reactions

  10. Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Folmer, M. J.; Jedlovec, G. J.

    2014-01-01

    Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), 32-km North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) interpolated to a 12-km grid, and 13-km Rapid Refresh analyses.

  11. Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodie, Jedediah; Johnson, Heather; Mitchell, Michael; Zager, Peter; Proffitt, Kelly; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kauffman, Matthew; Johnson, Bruce; Bissonette, John; Bishop, Chad; Gude, Justin; Herbert, Jeff; Hersey, Kent; Hurley, Mark; Lukacs, Paul M.; McCorquodale, Scott; McIntire, Eliot; Nowak, Josh; Sawyer, Hall; Smith, Douglas; White, P.J.

    2013-01-01

    Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. Proportional hazard analysis revealed that 'baseline' (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by <2%. When human factors were included, ‘total’ adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as

  12. Frey syndrome: factors influencing the time to event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafont, M; Whyte, A; Whyte, J; Saura, E; Tejedor, M T

    2015-07-01

    Frey syndrome is a common complication after parotidectomy. The time from surgery to disease onset may be quite long; therefore, a time-to-event analysis was performed for the occurrence of this syndrome post-parotidectomy. Three hundred and thirty-four patients who underwent a parotidectomy between January 2002 and November 2012 were identified (retrospective study). Of these patients, 102 developed Frey syndrome post-surgery and 232 did not. The time-to-onset analysis enabled us to estimate the risk ratio associated with different types of parotid gland tumours, various parotidectomy procedures, and repeat parotidectomy, which is useful for predicting preoperative and surgical risk. The risk of developing Frey syndrome was lower in patients with malignant tumours than in those with benign tumours (risk ratio 0.351, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.155-0.594). Risk ratios for lumpectomy PA (pre-auricular area), superficial parotidectomy, and total parotidectomy with respect to lumpectomy T (tail) were 4.378 (95% CI 1.168-16.410), 8.040 (95% CI 3.286-19.670), and 8.174 (95% CI 3.076-21.723), respectively. Repeat parotidectomy also increased the risk of developing Frey syndrome (risk ratio 3.214, 95% CI 1.547-6.678). No effect of the use of a superficial muscular aponeurotic system (SMAS) flap on the risk of developing Frey syndrome was detected (P=0.888).

  13. Is Weather Chaotic?

    CERN Document Server

    Raidl, A

    1998-01-01

    The correlation dimension and K2-entropy are estimated from meteorological time- series. The results lead us to claim that seasonal variability of weather is under influence of low dimensional dynamics, whereas changes of weather from day to day are governed by high dimensional system(s). Error-doubling time of this system is less than 3 days. We suggest that the outstanding feature of the weather dynamics is deterministic chaos.

  14. The influence of critical zone processes on the Mg isotope budget in a tropical, highly weathered andesitic catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapela Lara, María; Buss, Heather L.; Pogge von Strandmann, Philip A. E.; Schuessler, Jan A.; Moore, Oliver W.

    2017-04-01

    In order to assess the effects of critical zone processes on Mg concentrations and isotopic signatures of tropical streams, we studied a well constrained, highly weathered andesitic volcaniclastic catchment in the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory, Puerto Rico. Our results indicate that dissolved Mg concentrations and isotope ratios in the regolith pore water are mainly controlled by rain input, with weathering inputs being more important at sites with thinner regolith (2.7-0.9 m deep) and at depth (>8 m) on a thick ridgetop regolith (∼10 m). In addition to mixing of precipitation and weathering-sourced Mg, an isotopic fractionation process is taking place between dissolved Mg and the regolith, likely during dissolution or recrystallisation of Fe(III)-(hydro)oxides under alternating redox conditions. Bulk regolith is isotopically heavier than both the bedrock and the exchangeable fraction (δ26Mgregolith-bedrock = +0.03 to +0.47‰), consistent with the preferential incorporation of heavy 26Mg into secondary minerals with some exchange of sorbed Mg with isotopically lighter pore water. Magnesium concentrations in the stream show a typical dilution behaviour during a storm event, but the [Mg] - δ26Mg pattern cannot be explained by mixing of rain and pore water; the data are best explained by a steady-state fractionation model with α = 1.00115. During baseflow the stream has δ26Mg = +0.01‰, higher than any of the water samples or the bedrock. In-situ analysis of the Mg isotopic composition of bedrock minerals points at the dissolution of Mg-rich chlorite (δ26Mg = +0.19‰) as the most likely source of this isotopically heavy Mg, with mass balance calculations indicating chlorite dissolution is also the main source of Mg to the stream. Overall, our study highlights the importance of atmospheric input of nutrients to the vegetation in tropical areas covered by thick, highly leached regolith, whereas the Mg flux and Mg isotopic signature of watershed exports

  15. Do Weather Phenomena Have Any Influence on the Occurrence of Spontaneous Pneumothorax?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vodička, Josef; Vejvodová, Šárka; Šmíd, David; Fichtl, Jakub; Špidlen, Vladimír; Kormunda, Stanislav; Hostýnek, Jiří; Moláček, Jiří

    2016-05-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the impact of weather phenomena on the occurrence of spontaneous pneumothorax (SP) in the Plzeň region (Czech Republic). A retrospective analysis of 450 cases of SP in 394 patients between 1991 and 2013. We observed changes in average daily values of atmospheric pressure, air temperature and daily maximum wind gust for each day of that period and their effect on the development of SP. The risk of developing SP is 1.41 times higher (P=.0017) with air pressure changes of more than±6.1hPa. When the absolute value of the air temperature changes by more than±0.9°C, the risk of developing SP is 1.55 times higher (P=.0002). When the wind speed difference over the 5 days prior to onset of SP is less than 13m/sec, then the risk of SP is 2.16 times higher (P=.0004). If the pressure difference is greater than±6.1hPa and the temperature difference is greater than±0.9°C or the wind speed difference during the 5 days prior to onset of SP is less than 10.7m/s, the risk of SP is 2.04 times higher (P≤.0001). Changes in atmospheric pressure, air temperature and wind speed are undoubtedly involved in the development of SP, but don't seem to be the only factors causing rupture of blebs or emphysematous bullae. Copyright © 2015 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  16. Space Weather Influence on Power Systems: Prediction, Risk Analysis, and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatsenko, Vitaliy

    2016-04-01

    This report concentrates on dynamic probabilistic risk analysis of optical elements for complex characterization of damages using physical model of solid state lasers and predictable level of ionizing radiation and space weather. The following main subjects will be covered by our report: (a) solid-state laser model; (b) mathematical models for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; and (c) software for modeling and prediction of ionizing radiation. A probabilistic risk assessment method for solid-state lasers is presented with consideration of some deterministic and stochastic factors. Probabilistic risk assessment is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in solid-state lasers for the purpose of cost-e®ectively improving their safety and performance. This method based on the Conditional Value-at-Risk measure (CVaR) and the expected loss exceeding Value-at-Risk (VaR). We propose to use a new dynamical-information approach for radiation damage risk assessment of laser elements by cosmic radiation. Our approach includes the following steps: laser modeling, modeling of ionizing radiation in°uences on laser elements, probabilistic risk assessment methods, and risk minimization. For computer simulation of damage processes at microscopic and macroscopic levels the following methods are used: () statistical; (b) dynamical; (c) optimization; (d) acceleration modeling, and (e) mathematical modeling of laser functioning. Mathematical models of space ionizing radiation in°uence on laser elements were developed for risk assessment in laser safety analysis. This is a so-called `black box' or `input-output' models, which seeks only to reproduce the behaviour of the system's output in response to changes in its inputs. The model inputs are radiation in°uences on laser systems and output parameters are dynamical characteristics of the solid laser. Algorithms and software for optimal structure and parameters of

  17. Vegetation, topography and daily weather influenced burn severity in central Idaho and western Montana forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan S. Birch; Penelope Morgan; Crystal A. Kolden; John T. Abatzoglou; Gregory K. Dillon; Andrew T. Hudak; Alistair M. S. Smith

    2015-01-01

    Burn severity as inferred from satellite-derived differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) is useful for evaluating fire impacts on ecosystems but the environmental controls on burn severity across large forest fires are both poorly understood and likely to be different than those influencing fire extent. We related dNBR to environmental variables including vegetation,...

  18. Investigation of boundary-layer wind predictions during nocturnal low-level jet events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirocha, Jeff D.; Simpson, Matthew D.; Fast, Jerome D.; Berg, Larry K.; Baskett, R.

    2016-04-01

    Simulations of two periods featuring three consecutive low level jet (LLJ) events in the US Upper Great Plains during the autumn of 2011 were conducted to explore the impacts of various setup configurations and physical process models on simulated flow parameters within the lowest 200 m above the surface, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sensitivities of simulated flow parameters to the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface model (LSM) physics options, were assessed. Data from a Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) system, deployed to the Weather Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP; Finley et al. 2013) were used to evaluate the accuracy of simulated wind speed and direction at 80 m above the surface, as well as their vertical distributions between 120 and 40 m, covering the typical span of contemporary tall wind turbines. All of the simulations qualitatively captured the overall diurnal cycle of wind speed and stratification, producing LLJs during each overnight period, however large discrepancies occurred at certain times for each simulation in relation to the observations. 54-member ensembles encompassing changes of the above discussed configuration parameters displayed a wide range of simulated vertical distributions of wind speed and direction, and potential temperature, reflecting highly variable representations of stratification during the weakly stable overnight conditions. Root mean square error (RMSE) statistics show that different ensemble members performed better and worse in various simulated parameters at different times, with no clearly superior configuration . Simulations using a PBL parameterization designed specifically for the stable conditions investigated herein provided superior overall simulations of wind speed at 80 m, demonstrating the efficacy of targeting improvements of physical process models in areas of known deficiencies. However, the considerable magnitudes of the

  19. Adverse event reporting in Slovenia - the influence of safety culture, supervisors and communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birk Karin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The provision of safe healthcare is considered a priority in European Union (EU member states. Along with other preventative measures in healthcare, the EU also strives to eliminate the “causes of harm to human health”. The aim of this survey was to determine whether safety culture, supervisors and communication between co-workers influence the number of adverse event reports submitted to the heads of clinical departments and to the management of an institution. Methods. This survey is based on cross-sectional analysis. It was carried out in the largest Slovenian university hospital. We received 235 completed questionnaires. Respondents included professionals in the fields of nursingcare, physiotherapy, occupational therapy and radiological technology. Results. Safety culture influences the number of adverse event reports submitted to the head of a clinical department from the organizational point of view. Supervisors and communication between co-workers do not influence the number of adverse event reports. Conclusion. It can be concluded that neither supervisors nor the level of communication between co-workers influence the frequency of adverse event reporting, while safety culture does influence it from an organizational point of view. The presumed factors only partly influence the number of submitted adverse event reports, thus other causes of under-reporting must be sought elsewhere.

  20. Linked Extreme Weather Events during Winter 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 in the Context of Northern Hemisphere Circulation Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Archambault, H. M.; Cordeira, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    /PNA phase transition was associated with an extreme weather event that brought severe and record-setting cold to parts of the U.S. and Mexico, a powerful snow and ice storm in the Central U.S., and a subsequent and spectacular warm-up east of the Rockies. The purpose of this presentation will be to present an overview of the structure and evolution of the large-scale NH circulation anomalies during the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 winters. Emphasis will be placed on showing how individual synoptic-scale weather events (e.g., recurving and transitioning western Pacific tropical cyclones, diabatically driven upper-level outflow from organized deep convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and western North Atlantic storminess) contributed to the formation of significant and persistent large-scale circulation anomalies and how these large-scale circulation anomalies in turn impacted the storm tracks, regional temperature and precipitation anomalies, and the associated extreme weather.

  1. The Influence of Radon (Gas and Progeny) and Weather Conditions on Ambient Dose Equivalent Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Márquez, J L; Benito, G; Saez, J C; Navarro, N; Alvarez, A; Quiñones, J

    2016-08-13

    The purpose of this study is to identify the influence of radon (gas and progeny) on the ambient dose equivalent rate measured at the reference station ESMERALDA, where continuous measurements of the ambient dose equivalent rate (every 10 min) combined with activity concentration measurements of radon gas and radon progeny as well as meteorological parameters have been collected. This study has been performed using a correlation study based on a principal components analysis and the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.

  2. Quick assessment of the influence of the Hepatitis B vaccine event on children's vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chenyan; Sun, Xiaojin; Wei, Ning; Yu, Wenzhou; Cui, Fuqiang; Wang, Huaqing; Li, Li; Zhang, Lijie; Shi, Guoqing; An, Zhijie

    2016-10-02

    From December 2013 to January 2014, a large number of medias in China reported negative information about Hepatitis B vaccine (HepB) safety issues using eye-catching titles, such as "3 infants in Hunan inoculated with HepB occurred adverse event, and 2 died," and that caused crisis of confidence in vaccination, which we called "HepB event." The progress of "HepB event" could be divided into 3 stages which were initiation, peak and ending stages. In order to evaluate the influence of "HepB event" on the attitudes of participants toward Hepatitis B vaccine safety and their intention of vaccinating their children in different stages, and provide evidence for authority departments as soon as possible to take measures to prevent decrease of HepB coverage rate, a quick field investigation was carried out. Using convenience sampling methods during the initiation, peak and ending stages of the "HepB event." In the 3 stages of the "HepB event," the awareness rate of the event among participants was rapidly rising, showing that the participants paid great attention to the event, and the information was spread very quickly. The proportion of participants who knew the event but thought that the Hepatitis B vaccine was unsafe were 31%, 37% and 26% respectively in 3 stages. In addition, the acceptance of vaccination by the participants was influenced, the proportion of participants who would like to delay or reject vaccinating their children was up to 43% in the peak stage of the event. The "HepB event" had impacted on the participants' confidence in the safety of Hepatitis B vaccine. For such event, relevant authority departments need effectively communicate with the media and the public, and promptly issue positive information and the investigation result, thereby reducing the negative impact of the event, and improve the vaccine confidence among the public.

  3. Space-time clustering analysis of wildfires: The influence of dataset characteristics, fire prevention policy decisions, weather and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário G; Tonini, Marj

    2016-07-15

    The present study focuses on the dependence of the space-time permutation scan statistics (STPSS) (1) on the input database's characteristics and (2) on the use of this methodology to assess changes on the fire regime due to different type of climate and fire management activities. Based on the very strong relationship between weather and the fire incidence in Portugal, the detected clusters will be interpreted in terms of the atmospheric conditions. Apart from being the country most affected by the fires in the European context, Portugal meets all the conditions required to carry out this study, namely: (i) two long and comprehensive official datasets, i.e. the Portuguese Rural Fire Database (PRFD) and the National Mapping Burnt Areas (NMBA), respectively based on ground and satellite measurements; (ii) the two types of climate (Csb in the north and Csa in the south) that characterizes the Mediterranean basin regions most affected by the fires also divide the mainland Portuguese area; and, (iii) the national plan for the defence of forest against fires was approved a decade ago and it is now reasonable to assess its impacts. Results confirmed (1) the influence of the dataset's characteristics on the detected clusters, (2) the existence of two different fire regimes in the country promoted by the different types of climate, (3) the positive impacts of the fire prevention policy decisions and (4) the ability of the STPSS to correctly identify clusters, regarding their number, location, and space-time size in spite of eventual space and/or time splits of the datasets. Finally, the role of the weather on days when clustered fires were active was confirmed for the classes of small, medium and large fires. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. The Influence of Weather and Lunar Phases on the Flight Activity of Paederus Rove Beetles (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, F S; Lobo, S E P D; Lima, D C B; Brito, J M; Costa-Neta, B M

    2015-06-01

    Despite the medical importance of Paederus beetles, no studies have studied the influence of the abiotic factors on the flight activity and nighttime dispersal of these insects in Brazil. Therefore, the influence of both climatic factors and moon phase on black-light catches of Paederus rove beetles was investigated. Paederus beetles were attracted to a black light source hourly from 1800 to 0600 hours, and data on weather conditions as well as moon phase data were taken for every sampling date. Overall, 543 individuals of Paederus beetles belonging to four species were captured: P. protensus, P. columbinus, P. brasiliensis, and P. mutans. Paederus beetles were mostly active in the warmest parts of the studied nights. Variations in nighttime temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, and moon phases appear not to affect Paederus flight. The diurnal temperature was observed to affect the night hourly dispersal of Paederus rove beetles as well as their distribution pattern during the entire period of study. The true environmental condition responsible for Paederus beetles seasonal pattern and daily night dispersal in northeastern Brazil were the annual moisture and drought cycles and the diurnal maximum temperatures, respectively. Significant trap catches were observed in the earliest hours after sunset (1800-2100), and people must be aware of this fact, as it can notably increase the risk of acquiring linearis dermatitis from the contact with large numbers of active Paederus.

  5. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  6. The influence of urinary incontinence in the sexual satisfaction and quality of life in women weather.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Letícia Fernandez Frigo

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Backgound and Objectives: The loss of urinary incontinence can affect up to 50% of women at some stage of their lives and about 60 % of women over 60 and this may influence sexual satisfaction. The objective of this study is to evaluate the influence of urinary incontinence and sexual satisfaction before the quality of life in menopausal women. Methods: The sample consisted of 28 women in climacteric period aged 43 to 70 years of age. These were submitted to three questionnaires to assess sexual satisfaction, type of UI and quality of life, the QS-f, physiotherapeutic evaluation forms in urogynecology and SF-36, respectively. Results: In 46.42% of women met the UI of the mixed type, 50% of respondents had changes in your sex life, 42.85% reported never feel like having sex, thereby also affecting the quality of social life. Conclusion: The present study highlights the importance of a treatment that achieves positive results in reducing the symptoms of urinary incontinence, thus benefiting the quality of life and sexuality of these women. KEYWORDS: Urinary Incontinence. Quality of life. Climacteric.

  7. Temporal occurrence of two morpho butterflies (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae): influence of weather and food resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Geraldo; Nascimento, André Rangel; Malinov, Ivan Konstantinov; Diniz, Ivone R

    2014-04-01

    The seasonality of fruit-feeding butterflies is very well known. However, few studies have analyzed the influence of climatic variables and resource availability on the temporal distributions of butterflies. Morpho helenor achillides (C. Felder and R. Felder 1867) and Morpho menelaus coeruleus (Perry 1810) (Nymphalidae) were used as models to investigate the influences of climatic factors and food resources on the temporal distribution of these Morphinae butterflies. These butterflies were collected weekly from January 2005 to December 2006 in the Parque Nacional de Brasília (PNB). In total, 408 individuals were collected, including 274 of M. helenor and 134 of M. menelaus. The relative abundance of the two species was similar in 2005 (n = 220) and 2006 (n = 188). Of the variables considered, only the relative humidity and resource availability measured in terms of phenology of zoochorous fruits of herbaceous plants explained a large proportion of the variation in the abundance of these butterflies. Both of the explanatory variables were positively associated with the total abundance of individuals and with the abundances of M. helenor and M. menelaus considered separately. The phenology of anemochorous fruits was negatively associated with butterfly abundance. The temporal distribution of the butterflies was better predicted by the phenology of the zoochorous fruits of herbaceous plants than by the climatic predictors.

  8. Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karahan, Sinan; Windhorst, Robert D.

    2009-01-01

    Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots

  9. Detectability in Audio-Visual Surveys of Tropical Rainforest Birds: The Influence of Species, Weather and Habitat Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Alexander S; Marques, Tiago A; Shoo, Luke P; Williams, Stephen E

    2015-01-01

    Indices of relative abundance do not control for variation in detectability, which can bias density estimates such that ecological processes are difficult to infer. Distance sampling methods can be used to correct for detectability, but in rainforest, where dense vegetation and diverse assemblages complicate sampling, information is lacking about factors affecting their application. Rare species present an additional challenge, as data may be too sparse to fit detection functions. We present analyses of distance sampling data collected for a diverse tropical rainforest bird assemblage across broad elevational and latitudinal gradients in North Queensland, Australia. Using audio and visual detections, we assessed the influence of various factors on Effective Strip Width (ESW), an intuitively useful parameter, since it can be used to calculate an estimate of density from count data. Body size and species exerted the most important influence on ESW, with larger species detectable over greater distances than smaller species. Secondarily, wet weather and high shrub density decreased ESW for most species. ESW for several species also differed between summer and winter, possibly due to seasonal differences in calling behavior. Distance sampling proved logistically intensive in these environments, but large differences in ESW between species confirmed the need to correct for detection probability to obtain accurate density estimates. Our results suggest an evidence-based approach to controlling for factors influencing detectability, and avenues for further work including modeling detectability as a function of species characteristics such as body size and call characteristics. Such models may be useful in developing a calibration for non-distance sampling data and for estimating detectability of rare species.

  10. Detectability in Audio-Visual Surveys of Tropical Rainforest Birds: The Influence of Species, Weather and Habitat Characteristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander S Anderson

    Full Text Available Indices of relative abundance do not control for variation in detectability, which can bias density estimates such that ecological processes are difficult to infer. Distance sampling methods can be used to correct for detectability, but in rainforest, where dense vegetation and diverse assemblages complicate sampling, information is lacking about factors affecting their application. Rare species present an additional challenge, as data may be too sparse to fit detection functions. We present analyses of distance sampling data collected for a diverse tropical rainforest bird assemblage across broad elevational and latitudinal gradients in North Queensland, Australia. Using audio and visual detections, we assessed the influence of various factors on Effective Strip Width (ESW, an intuitively useful parameter, since it can be used to calculate an estimate of density from count data. Body size and species exerted the most important influence on ESW, with larger species detectable over greater distances than smaller species. Secondarily, wet weather and high shrub density decreased ESW for most species. ESW for several species also differed between summer and winter, possibly due to seasonal differences in calling behavior. Distance sampling proved logistically intensive in these environments, but large differences in ESW between species confirmed the need to correct for detection probability to obtain accurate density estimates. Our results suggest an evidence-based approach to controlling for factors influencing detectability, and avenues for further work including modeling detectability as a function of species characteristics such as body size and call characteristics. Such models may be useful in developing a calibration for non-distance sampling data and for estimating detectability of rare species.

  11. On the relationship between learning strategy and feedback processing in the weather prediction task--Evidence from event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustemeier, Martina; Schwabe, Lars; Bellebaum, Christian

    2013-03-01

    Previous work has shown that both declarative and non-declarative strategies can be engaged in probabilistic classification learning. With respect to the neural correlates of these strategies, earlier studies have focused on the classification process itself. In the present experiment, we asked whether the feedback for classification performance is processed differently by declarative and non-declarative learners. We recorded event-related potentials (ERPs) while participants performed a modified version of the weather prediction task, a well-known probabilistic classification learning task. ERP analysis focused on two ERP components typically associated with feedback processing, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P300. FRN amplitude was not affected by learning strategy. The P300, however, was more pronounced in declarative learners, particularly at frontal electrode site Fz. In addition, P300 topography was different in declarative learners, with amplitude differences between negative and positive feedback being more pronounced over the frontal than the parietal cortex. Differences in feedback processing between groups were still seen after declarative learners had switched to a non-declarative strategy in later phases of the task. Our findings provide evidence for different neural mechanisms of feedback processing in declarative and non-declarative learning. This difference emerges at later stages of feedback processing, after the typical time window of the FRN.

  12. Investigating the association between weather conditions, calendar events and socio-economic patterns with trends in fire incidence: an Australian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, Jonathan; Higgs, Gary; Rohde, David; Chhetri, Prem

    2011-06-01

    Fires in urban areas can cause significant economic, physical and psychological damage. Despite this, there has been a comparative lack of research into the spatial and temporal analysis of fire incidence in urban contexts. In this paper, we redress this gap through an exploration of the association of fire incidence to weather, calendar events and socio-economic characteristics in South-East Queensland, Australia using innovative technique termed the quad plot. Analysing trends in five fire incident types, including malicious false alarms (hoax calls), residential buildings, secondary (outdoor), vehicle and suspicious fires, results suggest that risk associated with all is greatly increased during school holidays and during long weekends. For all fire types the lowest risk of incidence was found to occur between one and six a.m. It was also found that there was a higher fire incidence in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods and there was some evidence to suggest that there may be a compounding impact of high temperatures in such areas. We suggest that these findings may be used to guide the operations of fire services through spatial and temporal targeting to better utilise finite resources, help mitigate risk and reduce casualties.

  13. Does Sport Event Involvement Influence Brand Recognition of Official Sponsors and Ambush Marketers?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piątkowska Monika

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of the study is to verify how event involvement in the UEFA Euro 2012 influenced the recognition of both sponsors’ and ambushers’ brands. Computer-Assisted Personal Interviews were conducted on a representative sample of the Polish society (N = 1,000. On the basis of five groups of consumers regarding involvement in the event, authors examined brand recognition, using Top of Mind Awareness (TOMA tests of official sponsors and ambushers.

  14. Whatever the weather: ambient temperature does not influence the proportion of males born in New Zealand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barnaby J Dixson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The proportion of male births has been shown to be over 50% in temperate climates around the world. Given that fluctuations in ambient temperature have previously been shown to affect sex allocation in humans, we examined the hypothesis that ambient temperature predicts fluctuations in the proportion of male births in New Zealand. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We tested three main hypotheses using time series analyses. Firstly, we used historical annual data in New Zealand spanning 1876-2009 to test for a positive effect of ambient temperature on the proportion of male births. The proportion of males born ranged by 3.17%, from 0.504 to 0.520, but no significant relationship was observed between male birth rates and mean annual temperature in the concurrent or previous years. Secondly, we examined whether changes in annual ambient temperature were negatively related to the proportion of male stillbirths from 1929-2009 and whether the proportion of male stillbirths negatively affected the proportion of male live births. We found no evidence that fewer male stillbirths occurred during warmer concurrent or previous years, though a declining trend in the proportion of male stillbirths was observed throughout the data. Thirdly, we tested whether seasonal ambient temperatures, or deviations from those seasonal patterns, were positively related to the proportion of male births using monthly data from 1980-2009. Patterns of male and female births are seasonal, but very similar throughout the year, resulting in a non-seasonal proportion of male births. However, no cross correlations between proportion of male births and lags of temperature were significant. CONCLUSIONS: Results showed, across all hypotheses under examination, that ambient temperatures were not related to the proportion of male births or the proportion of male stillbirths in New Zealand. While there is evidence that temperature may influence human sex allocation elsewhere

  15. Weatherization Works: An interim report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kinney, L.F. [Synertech Systems Corp., Syracuse, NY (United States)

    1993-11-01

    The National Weatherization Evaluation is the first comprehensive evaluation of the Weatherization Assistance Program since 1984. The evaluation was designed to accomplish the following goals: Estimate energy savings and cost effectiveness; Assess nonenergy impacts; Describe the weatherization network; Characterize the eligible population and resources; and Identify factors influencing outcomes and opportunities for the future. As a national program, weatherization incorporates considerable diversity due to regional differences. Therefore, evaluation results are presented both in aggregate and for three climate regions: cold, moderate and hot.

  16. Weatherization Works: An interim report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kinney, L.F. [Synertech Systems Corp., Syracuse, NY (United States)

    1993-11-01

    The National Weatherization Evaluation is the first comprehensive evaluation of the Weatherization Assistance Program since 1984. The evaluation was designed to accomplish the following goals: Estimate energy savings and cost effectiveness; Assess nonenergy impacts; Describe the weatherization network; Characterize the eligible population and resources; and Identify factors influencing outcomes and opportunities for the future. As a national program, weatherization incorporates considerable diversity due to regional differences. Therefore, evaluation results are presented both in aggregate and for three climate regions: cold, moderate and hot.

  17. Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor V. Karyakin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The 9th ARRCN Symposium 2015 was held during 21st–25th October 2015 at the Novotel Hotel, Chumphon, Thailand, one of the most favored travel destinations in Asia. The 10th ARRCN Symposium 2017 will be held during October 2017 in the Davao, Philippines. International Symposium on the Montagu's Harrier (Circus pygargus «The Montagu's Harrier in Europe. Status. Threats. Protection», organized by the environmental organization «Landesbund für Vogelschutz in Bayern e.V.» (LBV was held on November 20-22, 2015 in Germany. The location of this event was the city of Wurzburg in Bavaria.

  18. Development of a System to Generate Near Real Time Tropospheric Delay and Precipitable Water Vapor in situ at Geodetic GPS Stations, to Improve Forecasting of Severe Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, A. W.; Bock, Y.; Geng, J.; Gutman, S. I.; Laber, J. L.; Morris, T.; Offield, D. G.; Small, I.; Squibb, M. B.

    2012-12-01

    We describe a system under development for generating ultra-low latency tropospheric delay and precipitable water vapor (PWV) estimates in situ at a prototype network of geodetic GPS sites in southern California, and demonstrating their utility in forecasting severe storms commonly associated with flooding and debris flow events along the west coast of North America through infusion of this meteorological data at NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL). The first continuous geodetic GPS network was established in southern California in the early 1990s and much of it was converted to real-time (latency tropospheric zenith delays, which can be converted into mm-accuracy PWV using collocated pressure and temperature measurements, the basis for GPS meteorology (Bevis et al. 1992, 1994; Duan et al. 1996) as implemented by NOAA with a nationwide distribution of about 300 GPS-Met stations providing PW estimates at subhourly resolution currently used in operational weather forecasting in the U.S. We improve upon the current paradigm of transmitting large quantities of raw data back to a central facility for processing into higher-order products. By operating semi-autonomously, each station will provide low-latency, high-fidelity and compact data products within the constraints of the narrow communications bandwidth that often occurs in the aftermath of natural disasters. The onsite ambiguity-resolved precise point positioning solutions are enabled by a power-efficient, low-cost, plug-in Geodetic Module for fusion of data from in situ sensors including GPS and a low-cost MEMS meteorological sensor package. The decreased latency (~5 minutes) PW estimates will provide the detailed knowledge of the distribution and magnitude of PW that NWS forecasters require to monitor and predict severe winter storms, landfalling atmospheric rivers, and summer thunderstorms associated with the North American monsoon. On the

  19. An evaluation study of WRF-ARW model with observations during a usual low pressure system over eastern Mediterranean area (Greece) and comparison of the results with an extreme weather event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmanouil, George; Vlachogiannis, Diamanto; Sfetsos, Athanasios; Karozis, Stelios; Tasopoulou, Antonia

    2016-04-01

    The accurate simulation of weather conditions is becoming more and more an issue of increased research interest and public demand. Because of the uncertainty in forecasting such phenomena, the investigation of the choice of a proper model configuration to simulate in a satisfactory way usual weather conditions, as well as extreme events is of crucial importance. In the framework of providing reliable weather forecasting, the WRF atmospheric model was employed to simulate the weather conditions during a usual for the area low pressure system that passed over the Greek peninsula during 2015 (September, 18-24). NCEP FNL analysis data were used for model input. The model configuration was setup to include three nested domains with increasing horizontal resolution inwards (11km, 2km and 0.5km respectively), centered in Attica area. The model parameterization was concluded following a number of sensitivity tests, previously carried out for other weather events including extremes in the same area, such as the Cleopatra cyclone. The main meteorological variables were analyzed and evaluation of the results was performed against in-situ measurements by the network of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service stations. The comparison of the September low-pressure event and the Cleopatra case study model results in temperature showed good agreement with the observations in both cases. Study of the precipitation fields yielded significant improvement compared to the analysis data of the NCEP FNL and the comparison between the model results and observed values was found to be good locally at some stations. The overall conclusion was that the model parameterization and applied methodology proved to be an efficient and useful tool for studying and forecasting such events.

  20. Weathering a Dynamic Seascape: Influences of Wind and Rain on a Seabird's Year-Round Activity Budgets.

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    Pierre A Pistorius

    Full Text Available How animals respond to varying environmental conditions is fundamental to ecology and is a question that has gained impetus due to mounting evidence indicating negative effects of global change on biodiversity. Behavioural plasticity is one mechanism that enables individuals and species to deal with environmental changes, yet for many taxa information on behavioural parameters and their capacity to change are lacking or restricted to certain periods within the annual cycle. This is particularly true for seabirds where year-round behavioural information is intrinsically challenging to acquire due to their reliance on the marine environment where they are difficult to study. Using data from over 13,000 foraging trips throughout the annual cycle, acquired using new-generation automated VHF technology, we described sex-specific, year-round activity budgets in Cape gannets. Using these data we investigated the role of weather (wind and rain on foraging activity and time allocated to nest attendance. Foraging activity was clearly influenced by wind speed, wind direction and rainfall during and outside the breeding season. Generally, strong wind conditions throughout the year resulted in relatively short foraging trips. Birds spent longer periods foraging when rainfall was moderate. Nest attendance, which was sex-specific outside of the breeding season, was also influenced by meteorological conditions. Large amounts of rainfall (> 2.5 mm per hour and strong winds (> 13 m s-1 resulted in gannets spending shorter amounts of time at their nests. We discuss these findings in terms of life history strategies and implications for the use of seabirds as bio-indicators.

  1. Impact of tephra falls on Andean communities: The influences of eruption size and weather conditions during the 1999-2001 activity of Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Pennec, Jean-Luc; Ruiz, Gorki A.; Ramón, Patricio; Palacios, Enrique; Mothes, Patricia; Yepes, Hugo

    2012-03-01

    Repeated ash fall events have occurred during the 1999-ongoing eruption of Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, notably during the late 1999 and August 2001 eruptive phases. While the eruptive styles were similar, these two phases had different impacts on nearby rural and urban Andean populations: ash falls in late 1999 had limited effects on human health and farming, whereas the 2001 phase resulted in medical problems, death of animals in livestock, and damages to houses and crops. Here we investigate the origin of this difference by estimating the size of the August 2001 event (VEI, magnitude, intensity), and by comparing monitoring information of the 1999 and 2001 phases (duration, explosion rate, column height, SO2 output rate). The results show that both phases ranked at VEI 3, although the longer 1999 phase was likely larger than the 2001 phase. Mass magnitude (M) and intensity (I) indexes calculated for the 2001 phase reach M ≈ 2.7 and I ≈ 6.5 when based on ash fall layer data, but increase to M ≈ 3.2 and I ≈ 7.0 when ballistic products are included. We investigated the influence of rain fall and wind flow regimes on ash dispersion, sedimentation and remobilization. The analysis indicates that the harmful effect of the 2001 phase resulted from unfavorable conditions that combined volcanological and seasonal origins, including: a) a low elevation of the ash plume above rural regions owed to a usually bent-over column, b) ash sedimentation in a narrow area west of the volcano under sub-steady wind directions, c) anticipated ash settling by frequent rain flushing of low intensity, and d) formation of a wet cohesive ash coating on buildings and harvests. Conversely, the stronger 1999 phase injected a large amount of ash at higher elevation in the dry season; the ash was widely disseminated across the whole Ecuadorian territory and beyond, and was frequently removed by rain and winds. In summary, our study illustrates the influences of eruption size and weather

  2. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  3. The Long-term Middle Atmospheric Influence of Very Large Solar Proton Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Charles H.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Vitt, Francis M.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Randall, Cora E.; Fleming, Eric L.; Frith, Stacey M.

    2008-01-01

    Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone originates from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) and has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the long-term (> few months) influences of solar proton events from 1963 through 2004 on stratospheric ozone and temperature. There were extremely large solar proton events in 1972, 1989,2000,2001, and 2003. These events caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen-containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The nitrogen-containing compounds, called odd nitrogen, lasted much longer than the hydrogen-containing compounds and led to long-lived stratospheric impacts. An extremely active period for these events occurred in the five-year period, 2000- 2004, and caused increases in odd nitrogen which lasted for several months after individual events. Associated stratospheric ozone decreases of >lo% were calculated

  4. Event-based plausibility immediately influences on-line language comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuki, Kazunaga; Chow, Tracy; Hare, Mary; Elman, Jeffrey L; Scheepers, Christoph; McRae, Ken

    2011-07-01

    In some theories of sentence comprehension, linguistically relevant lexical knowledge, such as selectional restrictions, is privileged in terms of the time-course of its access and influence. We examined whether event knowledge computed by combining multiple concepts can rapidly influence language understanding even in the absence of selectional restriction violations. Specifically, we investigated whether instruments can combine with actions to influence comprehension of ensuing patients of (as in Rayner, Warren, Juhuasz, & Liversedge, 2004; Warren & McConnell, 2007). Instrument-verb-patient triplets were created in a norming study designed to tap directly into event knowledge. In self-paced reading (Experiment 1), participants were faster to read patient nouns, such as hair, when they were typical of the instrument-action pair (Donna used the shampoo to wash vs. the hose to wash). Experiment 2 showed that these results were not due to direct instrument-patient relations. Experiment 3 replicated Experiment 1 using eyetracking, with effects of event typicality observed in first fixation and gaze durations on the patient noun. This research demonstrates that conceptual event-based expectations are computed and used rapidly and dynamically during on-line language comprehension. We discuss relationships among plausibility and predictability, as well as their implications. We conclude that selectional restrictions may be best considered as event-based conceptual knowledge rather than lexical-grammatical knowledge.

  5. Using Forecasting to Teach Weather Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsubota, Y.; Takahashi, T.

    2009-09-01

    Weather affects our lives and hence, is a popular topic in daily conversations and in the media. Therefore, it is not only important to teach weather, but is also a good idea to use 'weather' as a topic in science teaching. Science education has two main objectives: to acquire scientific concepts and methods. Weather forecasting is an adequate theme to teach scientific methods because it is dependent on observation. However, it is not easy to forecast weather using only temporal observation. We need to know the tendency of 'weather change' via consecutive and/or continuous weather observation. Students will acquire scientific-observation skills through weather observation. Data-processing skills would be enhanced through a weather-forecasting contest. A contest should be announced within 5 days of school events, such as a school excursion and field day. Students submit their own weather forecast by gathering weather information through the internet, news paper and so on. A weather-forecasting contest compels the student to observe the weather more often. We currently have some different weather forecasts. For example, American weather-related companies such as ACCU weather and Weather Channel provide weather forecast for the many locations all over the world. Comparing these weather forecasting with actual weather, participants such as students could evaluate the differences between forecasted and actual temperatures. Participants will judge the best weather forecast based on the magnitude of the difference. Also, participants evaluate the 'hitting ratio' of each weather forecast. Students can learn elementary statistics by comparing various weather forecasts. We have developed our weather web-site that provides our own weather forecasting and observation. Students acquire science skills using our weather web-site. We will report our lessen plans and explain our weather web-site.

  6. The influence of March 2004 events in the resolution of the final status of Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MSc. Bahri Hyseni

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In the paper on March 2004 events, I tried to compare relevant factors such as the lack of a defined final status, economic prob-lems, organized crime and others, and conclude on the extent of the influence of those factors on the final settlement of the Kosovo status.

  7. The influence of news-events on health after disaster: a longitudinal study in general practice.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen, P.M.H. ten; Morren, M.; Yzermans, C.J.

    2009-01-01

    This study investigates the influence of local and international news events on utilization of health services resources and health complaints as presented by victims of a fireworks depot disaster. It was hypothesized that victims (N = 2,854) will show more utilization and health complaints to their

  8. The Influence of Sponsor-Event Congruence in Sponsorship of Music Festivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penny Hutabarat

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses the research on the Influence of Sponsor-Event Congruence toward Brand Image, Attitudes toward the Brand and Purchase Intention. Having reviewed the literatures and arranged the hypotheses, the data has been gathered by distributing the questionnaire to 155 audiences at the Java Jazz Music Festival, firstly with convenience sampling and then snowballing sampling approach. The analysis of data was executed with Structural Equation Modeling (SEM. The result shows the sponsor-event congruence variable has a positive impact toward brand image and attitudes toward the brand sponsor. Brand Image also has a positive impact toward purchase intention; in contrary attitudes toward the brand do not have a positive purchase intention. With those results, to increase the sponsorship effectiveness, the role of congruency is very significant in the sponsorship event. Congruency is a key influencer to trigger the sponsorship effectiveness. Congruency between the event and the sponsor is able to boost up the brand image and bring out favorable attitudes towards the brand for the success of marketing communication programs, particularly sponsorship. In addition to it, image transfer gets higher due to the congruency existence (fit between sponsor and event and directs the intention creation to buy sponsor brand product/service (purchase intention. In conclusion, sponsor-event congruence has effect on consumer responds toward sponsorship, either on the cognitive level, affective and also behavior.

  9. An Analysis of a Severe Turbulence Event Encountered by an Aircraft over the South China Sea and the Application of Numerical Weather Prediction Models in the Early Alerting of the Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. W. Chan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the literature, there is rather limited number of accounts of significant turbulence over the South China Sea, which is an area of busy air traffic. The present paper documents the meteorological observations of an aircraft over the seas west of the Philippines on encountering severe turbulence associated with an area of convection. From the valuable flight data available from this aircraft, it is found that, on encountering the significant turbulence, the aircraft experienced increase in wind speed, strong downdraft, high windshear hazard factor, and, most importantly, high level of eddy dissipation rate, which is a measure of turbulence intensity in civil aviation. The application of numerical weather prediction (NWP models in the forecasting of this severe turbulence case is also studied. It turns out that the cumulonimbus extent and in-cloud turbulence potential products from World Area Forecast System may have some indication of the occurrence of significant turbulence associated with convection in the area concerned. A mesoscale NWP model even forecasts the possibility of moderate-to-severe turbulence about 24 to 27 hours ahead of the event.

  10. Great Historical Events that were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 9, the Year Leading to the Revolution of 1789 in France (II).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, J.; Dettwiller, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper is an extension of an earlier paper (Neumann 1977) on historical events affected by the weather. More data are published herein on rainfall, pressure and temperature for spring-early summer 1788, when a severe drought struck France during anticyclonic conditions, leading to a crop failure. It is estimated that the grain harvest was 35%-40% below the mean for 1774-88. (The wine-grape harvest was even more catastrophic.) The shortfall led to increasingly high bread prices. The prices reached the highest level on 14 July 1789 (Bastille Day). Since workers spent about 55% of their income on bread and flour prior to 1788, bread riots had already broken out in August 1788. The number and violence of the riots tended to increase with time, causing a destabilization of public order.A meteorological factor of secondary importance was the harsh winter of 1788-89, which brought additional suffering to the lower classes. The price of heating materials rose, and water mills could not be operated because of the ice.Until April 1789 the numerous riots did not have, in most cases, anti-regime overtones. After May, however, the disturbances assumed political overtones, especially in Paris. This was due to agitation by the bourgeoisie who desired the abolition of the many privileges of the nobility and Church, and the lifting of restrictions on some economic activities. The bread riots, caused by the high bread prices (and, ultimately, by the drought), were used by the middle class for overthrowing the existing regime.In France of the 1700s, the number of poor depended on the price of bread which, first and foremost, was determined by the harvest.

  11. Progress in the development of ATHAM-Fluidity: A new high-resolution atmospheric model for simulating localised extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savre, Julien; Herzog, Michael; Percival, James; Pain, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7-PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions) project, a new high-resolution non hydrostatic atmospheric model is currently developed: ATHAM-Fluidity. Unlike many existing atmospheric models, ATHAM-Fluidity's dynamical core is based on a mixed finite-element discretisation designed to operate on unstructured and adaptive meshes, for an optimized use of computational power. The model is designed to simulate extreme weather conditions at local scales (on the order of 50x50 km2) and will ultimately help better understand and assess the impacts of heavy precipitation events in coastal areas. As such, ATHAM-Fluidity will constitute an important component of a suite of multi-physics models, including for example storm surge and flood modelling systems, whose role will particularly consist in producing high-resolution precipitation maps in areas of interest. A series of case studies identified within PEARL (for example Greve, Denmark, an area particularly vulnerable to floods and storm surges) will be further investigated using ATHAM-Fluidity and this integrated modelling framework. In order to successfully achieve its tasks, ATHAM-Fluidity must be equipped with a series of physical parameterisations to capture the formation and evolution of clouds and heavy precipitation. After a careful evaluation of ATHAM-Fluidity under dry atmospheric conditions [Savre et al., submitted to MWR 2015] for which the performances of the dynamical core and mesh adaptivity algorithm have been assessed, the model has recently been extended to handle moist atmospheric conditions and clouds. These new developments include the implementation of ATHAM's active tracer concept to account for atmospheric moisture and hydrometeors, as well as a warm two-moment bulk microphysics scheme to parameterise the formation and evolution of liquid clouds and precipitation. In addition, a turbulence diffusion closure, specifically designed for Large Eddy

  12. Indirect consequences of extreme weather and climate events and their associations with physical health in coastal Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Beier

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Bangladesh is one of the countries in the world which is most prone to natural disasters. The overall situation is expected to worsen, since extreme weather and climate events (EWCE are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. Indirect consequences caused in the events’ aftermath widen the range of possible adverse health outcomes. Objective: To assess the association of indirect consequences of EWCE and physical health. Design: We used recent cross-sectional self-reported data from 16 coastal villages in Bangladesh. A total of 980 households were surveyed using a structured questionnaire. The outcome of physical health was categorized into three groups, reflecting the severity of reported diseases by the respective source of treatment as a proxy variable (hospital/clinic for severe disease, other source/no treatment for moderate disease, and no disease. The final statistical analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression. Results: Severe diseases were significantly associated with drinking water from open sources [odds ratio (OR: 4.26, 95% confidence interval (CI: 2.25–8.09] and tube wells (OR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.43–4.01, moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 6.24, 95% CI: 2.76–14.11, food scarcity (OR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.16–3.40, and the perception of increased employment problems (OR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.18–4.07. Moderate diseases were significantly associated with moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 2.65, 95% CI: 1.28–5.48 and fully experienced food scarcity (OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.16–2.63. For both categories, women and the elderly had higher chances for diseases. Conclusions: Indirect consequences of EWCE were found to be associated with adverse health outcomes. Basic needs such as drinking water, food production, and employment opportunities are particularly likely to become threatened by EWCE and, thus, may lead to a higher likelihood of ill-health. Intervention strategies should concentrate on

  13. Indirect consequences of extreme weather and climate events and their associations with physical health in coastal Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Dominik; Brzoska, Patrick; Khan, Mobarak Hossain

    2015-01-01

    Background Bangladesh is one of the countries in the world which is most prone to natural disasters. The overall situation is expected to worsen, since extreme weather and climate events (EWCE) are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. Indirect consequences caused in the events’ aftermath widen the range of possible adverse health outcomes. Objective To assess the association of indirect consequences of EWCE and physical health. Design We used recent cross-sectional self-reported data from 16 coastal villages in Bangladesh. A total of 980 households were surveyed using a structured questionnaire. The outcome of physical health was categorized into three groups, reflecting the severity of reported diseases by the respective source of treatment as a proxy variable (hospital/clinic for severe disease, other source/no treatment for moderate disease, and no disease). The final statistical analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression. Results Severe diseases were significantly associated with drinking water from open sources [odds ratio (OR): 4.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.25–8.09] and tube wells (OR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.43–4.01), moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 6.24, 95% CI: 2.76–14.11), food scarcity (OR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.16–3.40), and the perception of increased employment problems (OR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.18–4.07). Moderate diseases were significantly associated with moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 2.65, 95% CI: 1.28–5.48) and fully experienced food scarcity (OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.16–2.63). For both categories, women and the elderly had higher chances for diseases. Conclusions Indirect consequences of EWCE were found to be associated with adverse health outcomes. Basic needs such as drinking water, food production, and employment opportunities are particularly likely to become threatened by EWCE and, thus, may lead to a higher likelihood of ill-health. Intervention strategies should concentrate on protection and

  14. Weather and emotional state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spasova, Z.

    2010-09-01

    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  15. Super-extreme event's influence on a Weierstrass-Mandelbrot Continuous-Time Random Walk

    CERN Document Server

    Gubiec, Tomasz; Kutner, Ryszard; Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    Two utmost cases of super-extreme event's influence on the velocity autocorrelation function (VAF) were considered. The VAF itself was derived within the hierarchical Weierstrass-Mandelbrot Continuous-Time Random Walk (WM-CTRW) formalism, which is able to cover a broad spectrum of continuous-time random walks. Firstly, we studied a super-extreme event in a form of a sustained drift, whose duration time is much longer than that of any other event. Secondly, we considered a super-extreme event in the form of a shock with the size and velocity much larger than those corresponding to any other event. We found that the appearance of these super-extreme events substantially changes the results determined by extreme events (the so called "black swans") that are endogenous to the WM-CTRW process. For example, changes of the VAF in the latter case are in the form of some instability and distinctly differ from those caused in the former case. In each case these changes are quite different compared to the situation with...

  16. The influence of weather on health-related help-seeking behavior of senior citizens in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ho Ting; Chiu, Marcus Yu Lung; Wu, Cynthia Sau Ting; Lee, Tsz Cheung

    2015-03-01

    It is believed that extreme hot and cold weather has a negative impact on general health conditions. Much research focuses on mortality, but there is relatively little community health research. This study is aimed at identifying high-risk groups who are sensitive to extreme weather conditions, in particular, very hot and cold days, through an analysis of the health-related help-seeking patterns of over 60,000 Personal Emergency Link (PE-link) users in Hong Kong relative to weather conditions. In the study, 1,659,716 PE-link calls to the help center were analyzed. Results showed that females, older elderly, people who did not live alone, non-subsidized (relatively high-income) users, and those without medical histories of heart disease, hypertension, stroke, and diabetes were more sensitive to extreme weather condition. The results suggest that using official government weather forecast reports to predict health-related help-seeking behavior is feasible. An evidence-based strategic plan could be formulated by using a method similar to that used in this study to identify high-risk groups. Preventive measures could be established for protecting the target groups when extreme weather conditions are forecasted.

  17. A Spatial Hierarchical Analysis of the Temporal Influences of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Weather on Dengue in Kalutara District, Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasad Liyanage

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is the major public health burden in Sri Lanka. Kalutara is one of the highly affected districts. Understanding the drivers of dengue is vital in controlling and preventing the disease spread. This study focuses on quantifying the influence of weather variability on dengue incidence over 10 Medical Officer of Health (MOH divisions of Kalutara district. Weekly weather variables and data on dengue notifications, measured at 10 MOH divisions in Kalutara from 2009 to 2013, were retrieved and analysed. Distributed lag non-linear model and hierarchical-analysis was used to estimate division specific and overall relationships between weather and dengue. We incorporated lag times up to 12 weeks and evaluated models based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Consistent exposure-response patterns between different geographical locations were observed for rainfall, showing increasing relative risk of dengue with increasing rainfall from 50 mm per week. The strongest association with dengue risk centred around 6 to 10 weeks following rainfalls of more than 300 mm per week. With increasing temperature, the overall relative risk of dengue increased steadily starting from a lag of 4 weeks. We found similarly a strong link between the Oceanic Niño Index to weather patterns in the district in Sri Lanka and to dengue at a longer latency time confirming these relationships. Part of the influences of rainfall and temperature can be seen as mediator in the causal pathway of the Ocean Niño Index, which may allow a longer lead time for early warning signals. Our findings describe a strong association between weather, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue in Sri Lanka.

  18. Convective Scale Ensemble Prediction System in KMA for Early Warning of High Impact Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic and societal damages due to severe weather events have been increasing in association with the concentration of human and economic resources such as in metropolitan areas. Severe weather events are often associated with rapidly developing convective scale systems, which are strongly influenced by topography, land use, and urbanization, etc. In the forecast those kinds of severe weather events, the high resolution numerical model is crucial to predict these convective scale severe weather events. However, the NWP models have an inherent limitation in the predictability of atmospheric phenomena, especially in predicting the severe weather. It is partly due to the poor resolution and model physics and partly due to the uncertainty of meteorological events. Nowadays most operational centers are being asked to develop more effective early detection systems that can be used to reduce the risk associated with severe weather events. Furthermore, forecasters need to assess and quantify the risk of occurrence of rare but destructive events. Thus, a policy in KMA to provide the probabilistic information of the severe events in limited area using ensemble method was adapted to meets these needs of the effective early warning systems. Ensemble forecasting using finite members is one of the feasible methods to quantify possibilities of extreme severe weather events. The ensemble forecasting has proved to be a successful way of dealing with that kind of inherent uncertainty of weather and climate forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system (LENS) using the Unified Model (UM) in KMA was developed and evaluated for the warm season of 2015. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution(3-km) limited area ensemble prediction system showed beneficial probabilistic forecast skill in predicting the heavy precipitation events. The sensitive experiment to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in model physics on the

  19. How do en route events around the Gulf of Mexico influence landbird populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Emily B.; Barrow, Wylie; Buler, Jeffrey J.; Deppe, Jill L.; Farnsworth, Andrew; Marra, Peter P.; McWilliams, Scott R.; Mehlman, David W; Wilson, R. Randy; Woodrey, Mark S; Moore, Frank R.

    2017-01-01

    Habitats around the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide critical resources for Nearctic–Neotropical migratory landbirds, the majority of which travel across or around the GOM every spring and fall as they migrate between temperate breeding grounds in North America and tropical wintering grounds in the Caribbean and Central and South America. At the same time, ecosystems in the GOM are changing rapidly, with unknown consequences for migratory landbird populations, many of which are experiencing population declines. In general, the extent to which events encountered en route limit migratory bird populations is not well understood. At the same time, information from weather surveillance radar, stable isotopes, tracking, eBird, and genetic datasets is increasingly available to address many of the unanswered questions about bird populations that migrate through stopover and airspace habitats in the GOM. We review the state of the science and identify key research needs to understand the impacts of en route events around the GOM region on populations of intercontinental landbird migrants that breed in North America, including: (1) distribution, timing, and habitat associations; (2) habitat characteristics and quality; (3) migratory connectivity; and (4) threats to and current conservation status of airspace and stopover habitats. Finally, we also call for the development of unified and comprehensive long-term monitoring guidelines and international partnerships to advance our understanding of the role of habitats around the GOM in supporting migratory landbird populations moving between temperate breeding grounds and wintering grounds in Mexico, Central and South America, and the Caribbean.

  20. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities’ preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities’ capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change. PMID:27649547

  1. Diagnosis of a Cold Wave Weather Event in March 2011 in Ningxia%2011年3月宁夏一次寒潮天气过程诊断

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈豫英; 陈楠; 聂金鑫; 穆建华; 辛尧胜

    2012-01-01

    were low trough moving east,the value of ground cold high pressure center reached to 1 062.7 hPa and it split and influenced Ningxia;After the burst of cold air,strong cold advection appeared over Ningxia,strong wind and dust occurred over the strong wind zone,convergence zone,vertical motion zone and vorticity gradient zone,and there was the vertical structure of convergence in lower level,divergence in middle level and convergence in high level,but there was no sandstorm occurred in Ningxia.Finally,we gave out the prediction conceptual model and forecast points of spring cold wave weather event in Ningxia.

  2. Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 8, Germany's War on the Soviet Union, 1941-45. II. Some Important Weather Forecasts, 1942-45.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, J.; Flohn, H.

    1988-07-01

    Short- to medium-range weather forecasts were prepared by Soviet meteorologists for the Battle of Stalingrad. These included forecasts for days suitable for massing troops and equipment and for starting the Soviet offensive in November 1942 that resulted in the encirclement of the German 6th Army. Another forecast was connected with the operation of artificial thickening of the ice cover of the Volga River in the Stalingrad area that made it possible to drive tanks from the cast bank to the west bank of the river (width: about 1 km).In January 1943 a German Panzer army had to be withdrawn from the Caucasus. To accelerate the retreat, light elements of that army crossed some 42 km of the ice cover of the Gulf of Taganrog (Sea of Azov). The crossing was authorized after a meteorologist proved his estimate of the ice-cover thickness by landing in a light plane on the ice.In January 1945 weather forecasts played an important role in the major Soviet (2 200 000 troops and 5 000 warplanes) Oder-Vistula offensive. Marshal Koney writes with appreciation of the correct weather forecasts.In the Appendix, considerations that led German meteorologists to formulate a forecast for a minimum of five days of fog or low clouds from the Ardennes to southern England are reviewed. This forecast was used by the German High Command for the start of the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944.

  3. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  4. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  5. Numerical simulation of heavy precipitation events using mesoscale weather forecast models. Validation with radar data and diagnosis of the atmospheric moisture budget; Numerische Simulation von Starkniederschlagsereignissen mit mesoskaligen Wettervorhersagemodellen. Ueberpruefung mit Radar-Daten und Diagnose der atmosphaerischen Wasserbilanz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keil, C.

    2000-07-01

    Convective precipitation systems contribute substantially to the summertime rainfall maximum in the northern Alpine region. The capability of mesoscale weather forecast models in capturing such heavy precipitation events is investigated. The complementary application of so far hardly used areal radar data and conventional rain gauge observations enables a case-study-type evaluation of summertime precipitation episodes. Different rainfall episodes are simulated with the former operational model (DM, meshsize 14 km) of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The influence of the horizontal resolution and the parameterization of moist convection is subsequently studied with a higher resolution atmospheric model (MC2, meshsize 2 km). Diagnostic studies on the atmospheric water budget regarding the rainfall episode, which instigated the Oder-flood in summer 1997, allow an examination of the origin of the moisture and the genesis of the copious precipitation. (orig.) [German] Konvektive Niederschlagssysterne tragen im Nordalpenraum wesentlich zum sommerlichen Niederschlagsmaximum bei. Die Faehigkeit mesoskaliger Wettervorhersagemodelle, solche Starkniederschlagsereignisse zu erfassen, wird in dieser Arbeit untersucht. Durch den komplementaeren Gebrauch von, bisher kaum genutzten, flaechendeckenden Radardaten und konventionellen Niederschlagsmessungen des Bodenmessnetzes werden Modellergebnisse sommerlicher Niederschlagssysteme fallstudienhaft detailliert ueberprueft. Fuer verschiedene Starkniederschlagsereignisse werden dazu Modellsimulationen mit dem in den 90er Jahren operationellen Modell (DM, Maschenweite 14 km) des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD) durchgefuehrt. Zur Untersuchung des Einflusses der horizontalen Maschenweite und der Niederschlagsparametrisierung werden ferner numerische Simulationen mit einem hoeher aufloesdenden Atmosphaerenmodell (MC2, Maschenweite 2 km) behandelt. Anhand diagnostischer Untersuchungen der atmosphaerischen Wasserbilanz laesst sich ausserdem die

  6. Influence of a water regulation event on the age of Yellow River water in the Bohai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhen; Wang, Haiyan; Guo, Xinyu; Liu, Zhe; Gao, Huiwang; Zhang, Guiling

    2017-10-01

    Abrupt changes in freshwater inputs from large rivers usually imply regime shifts in coastal water environments. The influence of a water regulation event on the age of the Yellow River water in the Bohai was modeled using constituent-oriented age and residence time theory to better understand the change in the environmental function of the hydrodynamic field owing to human activities. The water ages in Laizhou Bay, the central basin, and the Bohai strait are sensitive to water regulation. The surface ages in those areas can decrease by about 300 days, particularly in July, and the age stratification is also strengthened. A water regulation event can result in declines in the water age in early July ahead of declines in the water age under climatological conditions (without the regulation event) by about 1 and 5 months in the central basin and Laizhou Bay, respectively. The change in the coastal circulation due to the water regulation event is the primary reason for the change in the Yellow River water age. The high Yellow River flow rate can enhance the density flow and, therefore, reduce the age of the Yellow River water. The subsequent impact of a single water regulation event can last about 1.0 to 4.0 years in different subregions.

  7. Marine microbial communities of the Great Barrier Reef lagoon are influenced by riverine floodwaters and seasonal weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angly, Florent E; Heath, Candice; Morgan, Thomas C; Tonin, Hemerson; Rich, Virginia; Schaffelke, Britta; Bourne, David G; Tyson, Gene W

    2016-01-01

    The role of microorganisms in maintaining coral reef health is increasingly recognized. Riverine floodwater containing herbicides and excess nutrients from fertilizers compromises water quality in the inshore Great Barrier Reef (GBR), with unknown consequences for planktonic marine microbial communities and thus coral reefs. In this baseline study, inshore GBR microbial communities were monitored along a 124 km long transect between 2011 and 2013 using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Members of the bacterial orders Rickettsiales (e.g., Pelagibacteraceae) and Synechococcales (e.g., Prochlorococcus), and of the archaeal class Marine Group II were prevalent in all samples, exhibiting a clear seasonal dynamics. Microbial communities near the Tully river mouth included a mixture of taxa from offshore marine sites and from the river system. The environmental parameters collected could be summarized into four groups, represented by salinity, rainfall, temperature and water quality, that drove the composition of microbial communities. During the wet season, lower salinity and a lower water quality index resulting from higher river discharge corresponded to increases in riverine taxa at sites near the river mouth. Particularly large, transient changes in microbial community structure were seen during the extreme wet season 2010-11, and may be partially attributed to the effects of wind and waves, which resuspend sediments and homogenize the water column in shallow near-shore regions. This work shows that anthropogenic floodwaters and other environmental parameters work in conjunction to drive the spatial distribution of microorganisms in the GBR lagoon, as well as their seasonal and daily dynamics.

  8. The Sun as a Non-state Actor: The Implications on Military Operations and Theater Security of a Catastrophic Space Weather Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-03

    at night as though it were daylight. There are accounts of the aurora rousing people from their sleep in Bermuda and Hawaii, again, unusually...solar flares (orange triangles ) as measured by the magnitudes of their X-ray 10. William J. Burke...Meteorology. 10 emissions (numbers inside the triangles ) are superimposed. 14 The high correlation between severe space weather and the solar

  9. Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 8, Germany's War on the Soviet Union, 1941-45. I. Long-range Weather Forecasts for 1941-42 and Climatological Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, J.; Flohn, H.

    1987-06-01

    A brief account is given of Baur's long-range weather forecast prepared in the autumn of 1941 for the 1941-42 winter in Eastern Europe. Baur's forecast called for a normal' or mild winter but the winter turned out to be one of the most severe winters on record. The cold, the icy winds and blizzards gravely hit the German armies and coincided with the first major Soviet counteroffensive of the war. A Soviet weather forecast for January 1942, also called for a mild month.A review of the climatological studies prepared for the war indicates that the occurrence of mud periods of considerable intensity in autumn was not considered. The autumn 1941 mud period immobilized most of the German armies for a month and caused the attempted final German assault on Moscow to take place in an early and severe winter.Hitter would not tolerate the mention of winter and still less the mention of the retreat of Napoleon's Grande Armée from Russia.The support given by Soviet meteorologists and hydrologists to the Red Army is sketched. For the 1941-42 winter the more-important short- to medium-range forecasts included a forecast for 7 November (anniversary of the October Revolution) at Moscow and a forecast for the start of Zhukov's counteroffensive in the Battle of Moscow in December 1941.

  10. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-09

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  11. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-01

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  12. Traumatic life events and suicide risk among jail inmates: The influence of types of events, time period and significant others.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blaauw, E.; Arensman, E.; Kraaij, V.; Winkel, F.W.; Bout, R.

    2002-01-01

    Relationships between traumatic life events and suicide risk were studied in two samples of jail inmates with a low (N D 216) and a high (N D 51) suicide risk. Although nonsuicidal inmates reported a high prevalence of traumatic life events, suicidal inmates reported even higher prevalence rates. Su

  13. A szélsőséges időjárási jelenségek hatásai (Effects of the Extreme Weather Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamás Molnár

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Economist Sir Nicholas Stern warned that the global warming could cause major blow to the world economy than the two world wars and the crisis in the 1930s. But where are we in this process now and what can be expected in the near future and what opportunities we are to curb the negative effects and to slow down the global warming. The world’s population is more than 7 billion people now and we will live more than 9 billion on the planet in 2050 according to the conservative estimation because daily the number of inhabitants increases by approximitaly a quarter of a million people (National Rural Strategy, 2020. The water and ecosystem resources are diminishing due to overuse and the values of ecological footprint are very high especially in the developed countries. The increase of extreme weather events and its effects associated with the global warming have also growing impact on agricultural production. This phenomenon is important because to solve the famine and the water shortage will be much bigger problem due to climate change than today. The VAHAVA reports (change-impact-response draw also attention to the issue which is also important for experts of climate change: Is it clearly climate change and if so than what the role of the human activity in it is? It seems clear that the assumption is almost poetic as the earth sends clear messages: the concentration of greenhouse gases increased suddenly in the atmosphere (carbon-dioxide, methan, nitrous oxide, etc, the average temperature continues to rise (increasing number of hot records, the sea temperature is also rising, the area of glaciers is shrinking dramatically and prolonged drought and flood waters in some places appear. The habitats of plans and animals, routes of bird migration change. The negative effects of extreme weather events thus represent a broad problem area. The effects can be devide into several groups. Some of them have impact already relatively short-term (for

  14. Considering the Influence of Multi-weather-factors to Forecasting the Water Requirement of Well Irrigation Rice Based on ANN Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FU Qiang; FU Hong; LIANG Chuan

    2004-01-01

    The author considered the influences of several weather factors, such as air temperature, sunlight, saturation deficiency, wind speed and so on to forecasting the water requirement of well irrigation rice based on Artificial Neutron Network. Through dealing with the time series of water requirement and its influence factors, the author applied the multi-dimension data correlation analysis to ensure the net structure. Thus, the ANN model to forecast the water requirement of well irrigation rice has been built. By means of the ANN model, uncertainty relation between water requirement and many influence factors among the interior and exterior can be discovered. The results of ANN model is good, and can provide some references for establishing the water saving irrigation system.

  15. Mirador - Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth Science data access made simple. Our weather system includes the dynamics of the atmosphere and its interaction with the oceans and land. The improvement of...

  16. The influence of event-related knowledge on verb-argument processing in aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickey, Michael Walsh; Warren, Tessa

    2015-01-01

    Event-related conceptual knowledge outside the language system rapidly affects verb-argument processing in unimpaired adults (McRae and Matsuki, 2009). Some have argued that verb-argument processing is in fact reducible to the activation of such event-related knowledge. However, data favoring this conclusion have come primarily from college-aged healthy adults, for whom both linguistic and conceptual semantic processing is fast and automatic. This study examined the influence of event-related knowledge on verb-argument processing among adults with aphasia (n = 8) and older unimpaired controls (n = 60), in two self-paced reading studies. Participants read sentences containing a plausible verb-argument combination (Mary used a knife to chop the large carrots before dinner), a combination that violated event-related world knowledge (Mary used some bleach to clean the large carrots before dinner), or a combination that violated the verb's selectional restrictions (Mary used a pump to inflate the large carrots before dinner). The participants with aphasia naturally split into two groups: Group 1 (n = 4) had conceptual-semantic impairments (evidenced by poor performance on tasks like Pyramids & Palm Trees) but reasonably intact language processing (higher Western Aphasia Battery Aphasia Quotients), while Group 2 (n = 4) had intact conceptual semantics but poorer language processing. Older unimpaired controls and aphasic Group 1 showed rapid on-line disruption for sentences with selectional-restriction violations (SRVs) and event-related knowledge violations, and also showed SRV-specific penalties in sentence-final acceptability judgments (Experiment 1) and comprehension questions (Experiment 2). In contrast, Group 2 showed very few reliable differences across conditions in either on-line or off-line measures. This difference between aphasic groups suggests that verb-related information and event-related knowledge may be dissociated in aphasia. Furthermore, it suggests

  17. Space Weather Effects on Range Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    www.windows2universe.org/space_weather/space_weather.html What are scientists talking about when they say “space weather”? How is it like weather on...particle events observed by ground level, high latitude neutron monitors and the Concorde observations are summarised in Table 1 (Refs. 12 & 13), which

  18. Memory for positive, negative and neutral events in younger and older adults: Does emotion influence binding in event memory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earles, Julie L; Kersten, Alan W; Vernon, Laura L; Starkings, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    When remembering an event, it is important to remember both the features of the event (e.g., a person and an action) and the connections among features (e.g., who performed which action). Emotion often enhances memory for stimulus features, but the relationship between emotion and the binding of features in memory is unclear. Younger and older adults attempted to remember events in which a person performed a negative, positive or neutral action. Memory for the action was enhanced by emotion, but emotion did not enhance the ability of participants to remember which person performed which action. Older adults were more likely than younger adults to make binding errors in which they incorrectly remembered a familiar actor performing a familiar action that had actually been performed by someone else, and this age-related associative deficit was found for both neutral and emotional actions. Emotion not only increased correct recognition of old events for older and younger adults but also increased false recognition of events in which a familiar actor performed a familiar action that had been performed by someone else. Thus, although emotion may enhance memory for the features of an event, it does not increase the accuracy of remembering who performed which action.

  19. 2009年一次华北强桑拿天气过程的动力识别%Dynamical identification of a heavy "sauna" weather event in northern China in 2009

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨帅; 高守亭; 陈斌

    2012-01-01

    本文数值模拟并诊断分析了2009年7月华北的一次桑拿天过程,分析了高温高湿天气的环流特征,温度、湿度的水平和垂直分布特征,位涡分布特征等.分析发现,此次桑拿天事件高层为反气旋性环流的高压控制,水平分布图上,低层相对湿度大.垂直剖面上,中低层为下沉气流和暖湿区,有明显的水汽梯度和垂直温度梯度,有倾斜的位涡分布.既然桑拿天发生在夏季普遍高温的大环境之下,因此靠单纯的温度或湿度来动力识别和诊断桑拿天,有较大难度.本文抓住华北地区桑拿天过程高温、高湿、高位涡的特点,引入一个适合于桑拿天的湿热力位涡参数(MTPV,它表示为▽q·(▽θ×▽Q),这里q是湿度,表示为大气或者云中水汽和所有水凝物的总和,θ是位温,Q是位涡),对桑拿天进行动力诊断分析,并通过实际个例的计算分析作出简化.个例分析发现,此次高温高湿的桑拿天过程伴随MTPV的异常.虽然2009年7月此次华北地区桑拿天过程有较高的温度,较大的湿度和倾斜位涡发展,但是单个变量的范围远大于我们要研究的华北地区桑拿天的爆发范围.而结合这三个变量引入的MTPV及其简化形式,无论从经向还是纬向剖面图来看,MTPV的异常大值区相对集中在北京及其周边的华北地区对流层的低层,并维持.因而,MTPV及其简化形式均能对此次高温高湿的桑拿天进行较好的动力识别.%A "sauna" weather event in northem China in July 2009 is numerically simulated and diagnostically analyzed. The atmospheric circulation characteristics, the horizontal and vertical distributions of temperatures and moistures, and the distribution of potential vorticities are studied. It is found that anticyclone dominates the upper troposphere during the "sauna" weather event. In the horizontal chart, the relative humidity in the lower troposphere is large. From the vertical

  20. Multi-scale control influences sense of agency: Investigating intentional binding using event-control approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Devpriya; Srinivasan, Narayanan

    2017-03-01

    Control exercised by humans through interactions with the environment is critical for sense of agency. Here, we investigate how control at multiple levels influence implicit sense of agency measured using intentional binding. Participants are asked to hit a moving target using a joystick with noisy control followed by an intentional binding task initiated by the target hitting action. Perceptual-motor level control was manipulated through noise in the joystick controller (experiment 1) and goal-level control in terms of feedback about successful hit (experiments 2a and 2b). In the first experiment, intentional binding increased with amount of joystick control only when goal was not achieved and independent otherwise suggesting that the two levels interact hierarchically. In the second experiment, the estimated duration was dependent on when participants knew about goal completion. The results are similar to those obtained with explicit measures of sense of agency indicating that multi-scale event control influences agency.

  1. Producing Daily and Embedded Hourly Rainfall Data Using a Novel Weather Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Pin Tung

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of worldwide extreme drought and flood events has risen significantly in recent years. Many studies confer that climate change may cause more intensive and extreme events. Simulating the impact of climate change often requires weather data as inputs to assessment models. Stochastic weather generators have been developed to produce weather data with the same temporal resolution based on the outputs of GCMs. Reservoir simulation normally uses operational rules in daily and hourly time steps for water supply and flood reduction, respectively. Simulating consecutive drought and flood events simultaneously requires a weather generator to produce different temporal resolution data. This work develops a continuous weather generator to generate daily and hourly precipitation data for regular wet days and severe storms, respectively. Daily rainfall data is generated for regular wet days using Exponential distribution or Weibull distribution, while the total rainfall data for severe storms is generated using the Pearson type III or Log Pearson type III distribution. Moreover, hourly rainfall is determined based on generated hyetographs. Simulation results indicate that the proposed continuous weather generator can generate daily and hourly rainfall reasonably. The proposed weather generator is thus highly promising for use in evaluating how climate change impacts reservoir operations that are significantly influenced by more frequent and intensive consecutive drought and flood events.

  2. Urbanization Alters the Influence of Weather and an Index of Forest Productivity on Avian Community Richness and Guild Abundance in the Seattle Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Shryock

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Fluctuations in weather and forest productivity influence the abundance and richness of bird populations, however in a rapidly urbanizing landscape the relative importance of each factor may vary. We assessed this possibility in the Seattle, WA, USA region by correlating 10 years of bird richness and relative abundance of nine guilds indicative of their tolerance of human development, migration, diet and use of human food subsidies with an annual index of forest productivity (vegetation greenness derived from a 250 m resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI product from the MODIS satellite and weather (variation in the Oceanic Niño Index, which estimates the strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a major driver of local temperature and precipitation. We found that variation in NDVI exerted a strong influence on the richness of the avian community and the abundance of guilds in landscapes undergoing active development, but was less influential in areas of established housing development or forested reserves. Relative to NDVI, weather was much less influential on the abundance of guilds at actively changing sites, and slightly more influential in forest reserves and established developments. Following the warm winter and during the dry summer associated with a strong El Niño, migrants and herbivores declined in changing landscapes, insectivores declined in established developments, and herbivores declined while synanthropic species increased in reserves. These changes may presage the effects of climate change in the Pacific Northwest, which are expected to be similar to El Niño conditions. To buffer these changes in native bird communities, planners, developers, regulators, and home owners should minimize the loss of vegetation during development and attempt to quickly achieve mature landscaping that preferably provides food and shelter for birds.

  3. Remote Sensing of Clouds And Precipitation: Event-Based Characterization, Life Cycle Evolution, and Aerosol Influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaili, Rebekah Bradley

    Global climate models, numerical weather prediction, and flood models rely on accurate satellite precipitation products, which are the only datasets that are continuous in time and space across the globe. While there are more earth observing satellites than ever before, gaps in precipitation retrievals exist due to sensor and orbital limitations of low-earth (LEO) satellites, which are overcome by merging data from different sensors in satellite precipitation products (SPPs). Using cloud tracking at higher resolutions than the spatio-temporal scales of LEO satellites, this thesis examines how clouds typically form in the atmosphere, the rate that cloud size and temperature evolve over the life cycle, and the time of day that cloud development take place. This thesis found that cloud evolution was non-linear, which disagrees with the linear interpolation schemes used in SPPs. Longer lasting clouds tended to achieve their temperature and size maturity milestones at different times, while these stages often occurred simultaneously in shorter lasting clouds. Over the ocean, longer lasting clouds were found to occur more frequently at night, while shorter lasting clouds were more common during the daytime. This thesis also examines whether large-scale Saharan dust outbreaks can impact the trajectories and intensity of cloud clusters in the tropical Atlantic, which is predicted by modeling studies. The presented results show that proximity to Saharan dust outbreaks shifts Atlantic cloud development northward and intense storms becoming more common, whereas on days with low dust loading small-scale, warmer clouds are more common. A simplified view of cloud evolution in merged rainfall retrievals is a possible source of errors, which can propagate into higher level analysis. This thesis investigates the difference in the intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation in IMERG, a next-generation satellite precipitation product with ground radar observations over the

  4. The influence of international and domestic events in the evolution of forest inventory and reporting consistency in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Brad Smith

    2009-01-01

    This article takes a brief chronological look at resource inventory and reporting and links to international influences. It explores events as drivers of more consistent data within the United States and highlights key dates and events in the evolution of inventory policy and practice. From King George to L?Ecole nationale forestiere to the Food and Agriculture...

  5. Poly-Lactide/Exfoliated C30B Interactions and Influence on Thermo-Mechanical Properties Due to Artificial Weathering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy Margarita Chávez-Montes

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Thermal stability as well as enhanced mechanical properties of poly-lactide (PLA can increase PLA applications for short-use products. The conjunction of adequate molecular weight (MW as well as satisfactory thermo-mechanical properties, together, can lead to the achievement of suitable properties. However, PLA is susceptible to thermal degradation and thus an undesired decay of MW and a decrease of its mechanical properties during processing. To avoid this PLA degradation, nanofiller is incorporated as reinforcement to increase its thermo-mechanical properties. There are many papers focusing on filler effects on the thermal stability and mechanical properties of PLA/nanocomposites; however, these investigations lack an explanation of polymer/filler interactions. We propose interactions between PLA and Cloisite30B (C30B as nanofiller. We also study the effects on the thermal and mechanical properties due to molecular weight decay after exposure to artificial weathering. PLA blank and nanocomposites were subjected to three time treatments (0, 176, and 360 h of exposure to artificial weathering in order to achieve comparable materials with different MW. MW was acquired by means of Gel Permeation Chromatography (GPC. Thermo-mechanical properties were investigated through Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA, Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC, X-ray Diffraction (XRD, Dynamic Mechanical Thermal Analysis (DMTA and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR.

  6. Influence of soil and hydrocarbon properties on the solvent extraction of high-concentration weathered petroleum from contaminated soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, Hong; Hua, Zhengtao; Li, Xingang; Li, Hong; Wu, Guozhong

    2014-05-01

    Petroleum ether was used to extract petroleum hydrocarbons from soils collected from six oil fields with different history of exploratory and contamination. It was capable of fast removing 76-94 % of the total petroleum hydrocarbons including 25 alkanes (C11-C35) and 16 US EPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from soils at room temperature. The partial least squares analysis indicated that the solvent extraction efficiencies were positively correlated with soil organic matter, cation exchange capacity, moisture, pH, and sand content of soils, while negative effects were observed in the properties reflecting the molecular size (e.g., molecular weight and number of carbon atoms) and hydrophobicity (e.g., water solubility, octanol-water partition coefficient, soil organic carbon partition coefficient) of hydrocarbons. The high concentration of weathered crude oil at the order of 10(5) mg kg(-1) in this study was demonstrated adverse for solvent extraction by providing an obvious nonaqueous phase liquid phase for hydrocarbon sinking and increasing the sequestration of soluble hydrocarbons in the insoluble oil fractions during weathering. A full picture of the mass distribution and transport mechanism of petroleum contaminants in soils will ultimately require a variety of studies to gain insights into the dynamic interactions between environmental indicator hydrocarbons and their host oil matrix.

  7. How events determine spreading patterns: information transmission via internal and external influences on social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chuang; Zhan, Xiu-Xiu; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Sun, Gui-Quan; Hui, Pak Ming

    2015-11-01

    Recently, information transmission models motivated by the classical epidemic propagation, have been applied to a wide-range of social systems, generally assume that information mainly transmits among individuals via peer-to-peer interactions on social networks. In this paper, we consider one more approach for users to get information: the out-of-social-network influence. Empirical analyzes of eight typical events’ diffusion on a very large micro-blogging system, Sina Weibo, show that the external influence has significant impact on information spreading along with social activities. In addition, we propose a theoretical model to interpret the spreading process via both internal and external channels, considering three essential properties: (i) memory effect; (ii) role of spreaders; and (iii) non-redundancy of contacts. Experimental and mathematical results indicate that the information indeed spreads much quicker and broader with mutual effects of the internal and external influences. More importantly, the present model reveals that the event characteristic would highly determine the essential spreading patterns once the network structure is established. The results may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of the underlying dynamics of information transmission on real social networks.

  8. Analysis of a Cold Wave Weather Process in Chengdu in March 2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to analyze one cold wave weather process in Chengdu in March in 2010.[Method] Based on the NCEP 1°×1° 6 h interval reanalysis data and daily observation data,using synoptic analysis and diagnosis methods,and combining with the cold wave forecast index in spring of Sichuan,a cold wave event covering the whole region between March 21 and 24,2010 was analyzed from the aspects of circulation background,influencing weather systems and weather causation.[Result] Results showed that the 500...

  9. Influence of forest and rangeland management on anadromous fish habitat in Western North America: impacts of natural events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas N. Swanston

    1980-01-01

    Natural events affecting vegetative cover and the hydrology and stability of a stream and its parent watershed are key factors influencing the quality of anadromous fish habitat. High intensity storms, drought, soil mass movement, and fire have the greatest impacts. Wind, stream icing, and the influence of insects and disease are important locally...

  10. Chemistry of rain events in West Africa: evidence of dust and biogenic influence in convective systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Desboeufs

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper documents the chemical composition of 7 rain events associated with mesoscale convective systems sampled at the supersite of Banizoumbou, Niger, during the first special observation periods (June–July 2006 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA experiment. Time-resolved rain sampling was performed in order to discriminate the local dust scavenged at the beginning of rain event from the aerosol particles incorporated in the cloud at the end of the rain. The total elemental composition is dominated by Al, Si, Fe and Ca, indicating a high influence of dust and limited marine or anthropogenic contribution. After the aerosol wash-out, the elemental concentrations normalized to Al and the microscopic observations of diatoms, a tracer of the Bodélé depression, both indicate that the total elemental composition of rainwater is controlled by dust originating from North-eastern Saharan sources and probably incorporated in the convective cloud from the Harmattan layer. The low variability of the rain composition over the measurement period indicates a regional and temporal homogeneity of dust composition in the Harmattan layer. In the dissolved phase, the dominant anions are nitrate (NO3, sulphate (SO42− and chloride (Cl. However, between June and July we observe an increasing contribution of the organic anions (formate, acetate, oxalate associated with biogenic emissions to the total ion composition. These results confirm the large influence of biogenic emissions on the rain composition over Sahel during the wet season. The paper concludes on the capacity of mesoscale convective systems to carry simultaneously dust and biogenic compounds originating from different locations and depose them jointly. It also discusses the potential biogeochemical impact of such a phenomenon.

  11. Disease activity and lifestyle influence comorbidities and cardiovascular events in patients with acromegaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardella, Chiara; Cappellani, Daniele; Urbani, Claudio; Manetti, Luca; Marconcini, Giulia; Tomisti, Luca; Lupi, Isabella; Rossi, Giuseppe; Scattina, Ilaria; Lombardi, Martina; Di Bello, Vitantonio; Marcocci, Claudio; Martino, Enio; Bogazzi, Fausto

    2016-11-01

    The primary objective of this study is to identify the predictors of comorbidities and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) that can develop after diagnosis of acromegaly. The role of therapy for acromegaly in the event of such complications was also evaluated. Retrospective cohort study was conducted on 200 consecutive acromegalic patients in a tertiary referral center. The following outcomes were evaluated: diabetes, hypertension and MACE. Each patient was included in the analysis of a specific outcome, unless they were affected when acromegaly was diagnosed, and further classified as follows: (i) in remission after adenomectomy (Hx), (ii) controlled by somatostatin analogues (SSA) (SSAc) or (iii) not controlled by SSA (SSAnc). Data were evaluated using Cox regression analysis. After diagnosis of acromegaly, diabetes occurred in 40.8% of patients. The SSAnc group had a three-fold higher risk of diabetes (HR: 3.32, P = 0.006), whereas the SSAc group had a 1.4-fold higher risk of diabetes (HR: 1.43, P = 0.38) compared with the Hx group. Hypertension occurred in 35.5% of patients, after diagnosis. The determinants of hypertension were age (HR: 1.06, P = 0.01) and BMI (HR: 1.05, P = 0.01). MACE occurred in 11.8% of patients, after diagnosis. Age (HR: 1.09, P = 0.005) and smoking habit (HR: 5.95, P = 0.01) were predictors of MACE. Conversely, therapy for acromegaly did not influence hypertension or MACE. After diagnosis of acromegaly, control of the disease (irrespective of the type of treatment) and lifestyle are predictors of comorbidities and major adverse cardiovascular events. © 2016 European Society of Endocrinology.

  12. The influence of orolingual pressure on the timing of pharyngeal pressure events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Catriona M; Huckabee, Maggie Lee

    2007-01-01

    This study explored the influence of two methods of effortful swallow execution on the timing of pharyngeal pressure events. Participants were asked to either emphasize or minimize tongue-to-palate contact during performance of the maneuver. Twenty healthy participants were evaluated using concurrent submental surface electromyography (sEMG), orolingual manometry, and pharyngeal manometry. Each subject performed three repetitions of three counterbalanced tasks (noneffortful dry swallows, effortful dry swallows with tongue-to-palate emphasis, and effortful dry swallows with tongue-to-palate de-emphasis). Four variables were measured: Onset Lag vs. sEMG Peak, Peak Lag vs. sEMG Peak, Total Duration, and Percent Rise Time to Peak. Compared to noneffortful swallows, the effortful swallow task elicited significantly earlier onsets and peaks of pharyngeal pressures relative to the submental sEMG peak. Total pressure event durations were greater and rise times were significantly shorter. When comparing the two methods of effortful swallow execution, a longer latency to peak proximal pharyngeal pressure was found in the tongue-to-palate emphasis condition. These results support the interpretation that the effortful swallow maneuver involves generation of higher velocity bolus driving forces that propel the bolus into and through the pharynx with greater efficiency and that pressure is then sustained to facilitate more complete bolus clearance.

  13. Influence of negative emotion on the framing effect: evidence from event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Qingguo; Pei, Guanxiong; Wang, Kai

    2015-04-15

    The framing effect is the phenomenon in which different descriptions of an identical problem can result in different choices. The influence of negative emotions on the framing effect and its neurocognitive basis are important issues, especially in the domain of saving lives, which is essential and highly risky. In each trial of our experiment, the emotion stimulus is presented to the participants, followed by the decision-making stimulus, which comprises certain and risky options with the same expected value. Each pair of options is positively or negatively framed. The behavioral results indicate a significant interactive effect between negative emotion and frame; thus, the risk preference under the positive frame can be enhanced by negative emotions, whereas this finding is not true under the negative frame. The event-related potential analysis indicates that choosing certain options under the positive frame with negative emotion priming generates smaller P2 and P3 amplitudes and a larger N2 amplitude than with neutral emotion priming. The event-related potential findings indicate that individuals can detect risk faster and experience more conflict and increased decision difficulty if they choose certain options under the positive frame with negative priming compared with neutral priming.

  14. Influence of the freshwater forcing pathway on the AMOC during 8.2k event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, A.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Small, J.; Rosenbloom, N. A.

    2015-12-01

    The collapse of the proglacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway and the discharge of the lake water into the Hudson Bay were identified as the cause of the cold event occurred around 8.2 thousand years before present day (8.2kybp). This event has been widely studied using coupled climate models by adding freshwater forcing into the subpolar North Atlantic. However, results from the coarse resolution coupled models differ from that of a high resolution forced standalone ocean model simulation. Here we use a state-of-art fully coupled high-resolution climate model with 1/10 degree horizontal resolution for the ocean and sea ice, and ¼ degree for the atmosphere and land components to study the influence of the freshwater forcing to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this simulation, 2 Sv freshwater is added into the North Atlantic along a narrow band of west Baffin Bay to North of Labrador Sea for two years, then the freshwater forcing is switched off. Our preliminary results show that AMOC weakens by over 30% within the first 10 years, and recovers afterwards. The added freshwater were partly transported into the subpolar North Atlantic and partly into the subtropical gyre. The latter part was carried by Gulf Stream into the subpolar North Atlantic about 25 years later.

  15. Prestimulus EEG microstates influence visual event-related potential microstates in field maps with 47 channels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondakor, I; Lehmann, D; Michel, C M; Brandeis, D; Kochi, K; Koenig

    1997-01-01

    The influence of the immediate prestimulus EEG microstate (sub-second epoch of stable topography/map landscape) on the map landscape of visually evoked 47-channel event-related potential (ERP) microstates was examined using the frequent, non-target stimuli of a cognitive paradigm (12 volunteers). For the two frequent prestimulus microstate classes (oriented left anterior-right posterior and right anterior-left posterior), ERP map series were selectively averaged. The post-stimulus ERP grand average map series was segmented into microstates; 10 were found. The centroid locations of positive and negative map areas extracted as landscape descriptors. Significant differences (MANOVAs and t-tests) between the two prestimulus classes were found in four of the ten ERP microstates. The relative orientation of the two ERP microstate classes was the same as prestimulus in some ERP microstates, but reversed in others. Thus, brain electric microstates at stimulus arrival influence the landscapes of the post-stimulus ERP maps and therefore, information processing; prestimulus microstate effects differed for different post-stimulus ERP microstates.

  16. Event-related potential evidence on the influence of accentuation in spoken discourse comprehension in Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoqing; Hagoort, Peter; Yang, Yufang

    2008-05-01

    In an event-related potential experiment with Chinese discourses as material, we investigated how and when accentuation influences spoken discourse comprehension in relation to the different information states of the critical words. These words could either provide new or old information. It was shown that variation of accentuation influenced the amplitude of the N400, with a larger amplitude for accented than for deaccented words. In addition, there was an interaction between accentuation and information state. The N400 amplitude difference between accented and deaccented new information was smaller than that between accented and deaccented old information. The results demonstrate that, during spoken discourse comprehension, listeners rapidly extract the semantic consequences of accentuation in relation to the previous discourse context. Moreover, our results show that the N400 amplitude can be larger for correct (new, accented words) than incorrect (new, deaccented words) information. This, we argue, proves that the N400 does not react to semantic anomaly per se, but rather to semantic integration load, which is higher for new information.

  17. Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters

    CERN Document Server

    Healey, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Australia is a vast land in which weather varies significantly in different parts of the continent. Recent extreme weather events in Australia, such as the Queensland floods and Victorian bushfires, are brutal reminders of nature's devastating power. Is global warming increasing the rate of natural disasters? What part do La Niña and El Niño play in the extreme weather cycle? Cyclones, floods, severe storms, bushfires, landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis - what are the natural and man-made causes of these phenomena, how predictable are they, and how prepared are we for the impacts of natural dis

  18. Stormy Weather

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    Inspired by the deep abyss of the unknown; a constant source for investigation and discovery, heating and destruction, all simultaneously. Beneath the deep darkness, millions of species vibrantly thrive in another universe wholly untouched by human hands, though affected by their choices. The weathered pieces and people associated with seaside villages, the deep wrinkles that tell a story of one's life and experiences like

  19. Influence of bulk microphysics schemes upon Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.6.1 nor'easter simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Stephen D.; Decker, Steven G.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Shi, Jainn J.; Mohr, Karen I.

    2017-03-01

    This study evaluated the impact of five single- or double-moment bulk microphysics schemes (BMPSs) on Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) simulations of seven intense wintertime cyclones impacting the mid-Atlantic United States; 5-day long WRF simulations were initialized roughly 24 h prior to the onset of coastal cyclogenesis off the North Carolina coastline. In all, 35 model simulations (five BMPSs and seven cases) were run and their associated microphysics-related storm properties (hydrometer mixing ratios, precipitation, and radar reflectivity) were evaluated against model analysis and available gridded radar and ground-based precipitation products. Inter-BMPS comparisons of column-integrated mixing ratios and mixing ratio profiles reveal little variability in non-frozen hydrometeor species due to their shared programming heritage, yet their assumptions concerning snow and graupel intercepts, ice supersaturation, snow and graupel density maps, and terminal velocities led to considerable variability in both simulated frozen hydrometeor species and radar reflectivity. WRF-simulated precipitation fields exhibit minor spatiotemporal variability amongst BMPSs, yet their spatial extent is largely conserved. Compared to ground-based precipitation data, WRF simulations demonstrate low-to-moderate (0.217-0.414) threat scores and a rainfall distribution shifted toward higher values. Finally, an analysis of WRF and gridded radar reflectivity data via contoured frequency with altitude diagrams (CFADs) reveals notable variability amongst BMPSs, where better performing schemes favored lower graupel mixing ratios and better underlying aggregation assumptions.

  20. Impact of weather variability on nitrate leaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Karl; Premrov, Alina; Hackett, Richard; Coxon, Catherine

    2016-04-01

    The loss of nitrate (NO3 - N) to water via leaching and overland flow contributes to eutrophication of freshwaters, transitional and near coastal waters with agriculture contributing significantly to nitrogen (N) loading to these water. Environmental regulations, such as the Nitrates and Water Framework Directives, have increased constraints on farmers to improve N management in regions at risk of NO3--N loss to water. In addition, farmers also have to manage their systems within a changing climate as the imapcts of climate change begin to impact resulting in more frequent extreme events such as floods and droughts. The objective of this study was to investigate the link between weather volatility and the concentration of leached NO3--N spring barley. Leaching was quantified under spring barley grown on a well-drained, gravelly sandy soil using ceramic cup samplers over 6 drainage years under the same farming practices and treatments. Soil solution NO3--N concentrations under spring barley grown by conventional inversion ploughing and reduced tillage were compared to weather parameters over the period. Weather was recorded at a national Met Eireann weather station on site. Soil solution NO3--N varied significantly between years. Within individual years NO3--N concentrations varied over the drainage season, with peak concentrations generally observed in the autumn time, decreasing thereafter. Under both treatments there was a three-fold difference in mean annual soil solution NO3--N concentration over the 6 years with no change in the agronomic practices (crop type, tillage type and fertiliser input). Soil solution nitrate concentrations were significantly influenced by weather parameters such as rainfall, effective drainage and soil moisture deficit. The impact of climate change in Ireland could lead to increased NO3--N loss to water further exacerbating eutrophication of sensitive estuaries. The increased impact on eutrophication of waters, related to climatic

  1. Whether weather affects music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aplin, Karen L.; Williams, Paul D.

    2012-09-01

    The creative output of composers, writers, and artists is often influenced by their surroundings. To give a literary example, it has been claimed recently that some of the characters in Oliver Twist and A Christmas Carol were based on real-life people who lived near Charles Dickens in London [Richardson, 2012]. Of course, an important part of what we see and hear is not only the people with whom we interact but also our geophysical surroundings. Of all the geophysical phenomena to influence us, the weather is arguably the most significant because we are exposed to it directly and daily. The weather was a great source of inspiration for artists Claude Monet, John Constable, and William Turner, who are known for their scientifically accurate paintings of the skies [e.g., Baker and Thornes, 2006].

  2. Cool Stars and Space Weather

    CERN Document Server

    Vidotto, A A; Cameron, A C; Morin, J; Villadsen, J; Saar, S; Alvarado, J; Cohen, O; Holzwarth, V; Poppenhaeger, K; Reville, V

    2014-01-01

    Stellar flares, winds and coronal mass ejections form the space weather. They are signatures of the magnetic activity of cool stars and, since activity varies with age, mass and rotation, the space weather that extra-solar planets experience can be very different from the one encountered by the solar system planets. How do stellar activity and magnetism influence the space weather of exoplanets orbiting main-sequence stars? How do the environments surrounding exoplanets differ from those around the planets in our own solar system? How can the detailed knowledge acquired by the solar system community be applied in exoplanetary systems? How does space weather affect habitability? These were questions that were addressed in the splinter session "Cool stars and Space Weather", that took place on 9 Jun 2014, during the Cool Stars 18 meeting. In this paper, we present a summary of the contributions made to this session.

  3. The North Atlantic Oscillation Influence on the Wave Regime in Portugal: An Extreme Wave Event Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-03-01

    storm wave classification criterion used by the Portuguese Weather Services (Instituto de Meteorologia ) or in the Portuguese Navy IH, a simple...PORTUGAL 13. Dr Nuno Moreira Instituto de Meteorologia Rua C ao Aeroporto Lisboa – PORTUGAL 14. LCDR Juan Conforto Sección de Oceanografía

  4. How Social Ties Influence Consumer: Evidence from Event-Related Potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luan, Jing; Yao, Zhong; Bai, Yan

    2017-01-01

    A considerable amount of marketing research has reported that consumers are more saliently influenced by friends (strong social ties) than by acquaintances and strangers (weak social ties). To shed light on the neural and psychological processes underlying such phenomenon, in this study we designed an amended S1-S2 paradigm (product-[reviewer-review]) that is based on realistic consumer purchase experiences. After incoming all given information (product, reviewer, review), participants were required to state their purchase intentions. The neurocognitive and emotional processes related to friend and stranger stimuli were delineated to suggest how social ties influence consumers during their shopping processes. Larger P2 (fronto-central scalp areas) and P3 (central and posterior-parietal scalp areas) components under stranger condition were elicited successfully. These findings demonstrate that the cognitive and emotional processing of friend and stranger stimuli occurs at stages of neural activity, and can be indicated by the P2 and P3 components. Electrophysiological data also support the hypothesis that different neural and emotional processing magnitude and strength underlie friend and stranger effect in the context of consumer purchase. During this process, the perception of stimuli evoked P2, subsequently emotional processing and attention modulation were activated and indicated by P2 and P3. The friend dominated phenomenon can be interpreted as the result of distinctive neurocognitive and emotional processing magnitude, which suggests that psychological and emotional factors can guide consumer decision making. This study consolidates that event related potential (ERP) methodology is likely to be a more sensitive method for investigating consumer behaviors. From the perspectives of management and marketing, our findings show that the P2 and P3 components can be employed as an indicator to probe the influential factors of consumer purchase intentions.

  5. How Social Ties Influence Consumer: Evidence from Event-Related Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhong

    2017-01-01

    A considerable amount of marketing research has reported that consumers are more saliently influenced by friends (strong social ties) than by acquaintances and strangers (weak social ties). To shed light on the neural and psychological processes underlying such phenomenon, in this study we designed an amended S1-S2 paradigm (product-[reviewer-review]) that is based on realistic consumer purchase experiences. After incoming all given information (product, reviewer, review), participants were required to state their purchase intentions. The neurocognitive and emotional processes related to friend and stranger stimuli were delineated to suggest how social ties influence consumers during their shopping processes. Larger P2 (fronto-central scalp areas) and P3 (central and posterior-parietal scalp areas) components under stranger condition were elicited successfully. These findings demonstrate that the cognitive and emotional processing of friend and stranger stimuli occurs at stages of neural activity, and can be indicated by the P2 and P3 components. Electrophysiological data also support the hypothesis that different neural and emotional processing magnitude and strength underlie friend and stranger effect in the context of consumer purchase. During this process, the perception of stimuli evoked P2, subsequently emotional processing and attention modulation were activated and indicated by P2 and P3. The friend dominated phenomenon can be interpreted as the result of distinctive neurocognitive and emotional processing magnitude, which suggests that psychological and emotional factors can guide consumer decision making. This study consolidates that event related potential (ERP) methodology is likely to be a more sensitive method for investigating consumer behaviors. From the perspectives of management and marketing, our findings show that the P2 and P3 components can be employed as an indicator to probe the influential factors of consumer purchase intentions. PMID

  6. 琼州海峡沿岸大风分布规律及影响系统分析%Analysis on Distribution Pattern of High Wind Events in Qiongzhou Strait Coastal Zones and Its Weather Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭冬艳; 姜涛; 陈有龙; 辛吉武

    2011-01-01

    Based on the data from automatic weather stations in the Qiongzhou Strait northern and southern coasts,the distribution patterns of high wind events in both coastal zones were analyzed.And the difference between them was also analyzed using weather systems.The high wind events are defined into two kinds:sustained winds and gust winds.The results are as follows:In southern coast,the high wind events are more frequent than in northern coast,but the speeds of gust winds are obviously bigger in northern coast than in southern coast.The high wind events in northern coastal zones and the sustained wind events in southern coastal zones mainly happen in autumn and winter but rare in other seasons,and the sustained wind events in both coastal zones mainly occurred by cold air.But the gust wind events in the southern coastal are quite special,which mainly happen in autumn and rarely occurred by cold air.In both coastal zones of the Qiongzhou Strait,the high wind events happen with more frequency and bigger speed on the east entrance than on the west entrance,and with the least in the middle of coastal zones.There exist pronounced phenomena that the northeast high wind was donsinant in both coasts of the strait.The high wind events are more easily occurred by cold air from east than from west.The Qiongzhou Strait can obviously make the turbulent intensity of cold air turning weak.%利用琼州海峡南北沿岸自动气象站2007年9月至2010年8月风向、风速资料,分析了最大风和极大风两种大风事件标准下的海峡沿岸大风分布规律,并基于大风天气影响系统分析南北沿岸大风的差异。结果表明:琼州海峡南侧沿岸大风事件多于北侧沿岸,其中最大风标准下的大风事件南侧沿岸明显多于北侧沿岸,但极大风标准下的大风事件北侧沿岸则多于南侧沿岸,且极大风风速明显偏大;北侧沿岸两种大风事件及南侧沿岸最大风事件均主要出现在秋冬季节,其中,两

  7. Weather Modification: Finding Common Ground.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garstang, Michael; Bruintjes, Roelof; Serafin, Robert; Orville, Harold; Boe, Bruce; Cotton, William; Warburton, Joseph

    2005-05-01

    Research and operational approaches to weather modification expressed in the National Research Council's 2003 report on “Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research” and in the Weather Modification Association's response to that report form the basis for this discussion. There is agreement that advances in the past few decades over a broad front of understanding physical processes and in technology have not been comprehensively applied to weather modification. Such advances need to be capitalized upon in the form of a concerted and sustained national effort to carry out basic and applied research in weather modification. The need for credible scientific evidence and the pressure for action should be resolved. Differences in the perception of current knowledge, the utility of numerical models, and the specific needs of research and operations in weather modification must be addressed. The increasing demand for water and the cost to society inflicted by severe weather require that the intellectual, technical, and administrative resources of the nation be combined to resolve whether and to what degree humans can influence the weather.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

  8. Cooking and disgust sensitivity influence preference for attending insect-based food events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamerman, Eric J

    2016-01-01

    Insects are energy-efficient and sustainable sources of animal protein in a world with insufficient food resources to feed an ever-increasing population. However, much of the western world refuses to eat insects because they perceive them as disgusting. This research finds that both animal reminder disgust and core disgust reduced people's willingness to attend a program called "Bug Appétit" in which insects were served as food. Additionally, people who were low in sensitivity to animal reminder disgust were more willing to attend this program after having been primed to think about cooking. Cooking is a process by which raw ingredients are transformed into finished products, reducing the "animalness" of meat products that renders them disgusting. Sensitivity to core disgust did not interact with cooking to influence willingness to attend the program. While prior research has emphasized that direct education campaigns about the benefits of entomophagy (the consumption of insects) can increase willingness to attend events at which insect-based food is served, this is the first demonstration that indirect priming can have a similar effect among a subset of the population.

  9. The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šraj Mojca

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Substantial evidence shows that the frequency of hydrological extremes has been changing and is likely to continue to change in the near future. Non-stationary models for flood frequency analyses are one method of accounting for these changes in estimating design values. The objective of the present study is to compare four models in terms of goodness of fit, their uncertainties, the parameter estimation methods and the implications for estimating flood quantiles. Stationary and non-stationary models using the GEV distribution were considered, with parameters dependent on time and on annual precipitation. Furthermore, in order to study the influence of the parameter estimation approach on the results, the maximum likelihood (MLE and Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC methods were compared. The methods were tested for two gauging stations in Slovenia that exhibit significantly increasing trends in annual maximum (AM discharge series. The comparison of the models suggests that the stationary model tends to underestimate flood quantiles relative to the non-stationary models in recent years. The model with annual precipitation as a covariate exhibits the best goodness-of-fit performance. For a 10% increase in annual precipitation, the 10-year flood increases by 8%. Use of the model for design purposes requires scenarios of future annual precipitation. It is argued that these may be obtained more reliably than scenarios of extreme event precipitation which makes the proposed model more practically useful than alternative models.

  10. The influence of gender and gender typicality on autobiographical memory across event types and age groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grysman, Azriel; Fivush, Robyn; Merrill, Natalie A; Graci, Matthew

    2016-08-01

    Gender differences in autobiographical memory emerge in some data collection paradigms and not others. The present study included an extensive analysis of gender differences in autobiographical narratives. Data were collected from 196 participants, evenly split by gender and by age group (emerging adults, ages 18-29, and young adults, ages 30-40). Each participant reported four narratives, including an event that had occurred in the last 2 years, a high point, a low point, and a self-defining memory. Additionally, all participants completed self-report measures of masculine and feminine gender typicality. The narratives were coded along six dimensions-namely coherence, connectedness, agency, affect, factual elaboration, and interpretive elaboration. The results indicated that females expressed more affect, connection, and factual elaboration than males across all narratives, and that feminine typicality predicted increased connectedness in narratives. Masculine typicality predicted higher agency, lower connectedness, and lower affect, but only for some narratives and not others. These findings support an approach that views autobiographical reminiscing as a feminine-typed activity and that identifies gender differences as being linked to categorical gender, but also to one's feminine gender typicality, whereas the influences of masculine gender typicality were more context-dependent. We suggest that implicit gendered socialization and more explicit gender typicality each contribute to gendered autobiographies.

  11. Rainmakers: why bad weather means good productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jooa Julia; Gino, Francesca; Staats, Bradley R

    2014-05-01

    People believe that weather conditions influence their everyday work life, but to date, little is known about how weather affects individual productivity. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we predict and find that bad weather increases individual productivity and that it does so by eliminating potential cognitive distractions resulting from good weather. When the weather is bad, individuals appear to focus more on their work than on alternate outdoor activities. We investigate the proposed relationship between worse weather and higher productivity through 4 studies: (a) field data on employees' productivity from a bank in Japan, (b) 2 studies from an online labor market in the United States, and (c) a laboratory experiment. Our findings suggest that worker productivity is higher on bad-, rather than good-, weather days and that cognitive distractions associated with good weather may explain the relationship. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of our research.

  12. [The influence of weather conditions on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases by the example of West Nile fever in Russia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platonov, A E

    2006-01-01

    Climate changes must influence the incidence of vector-borne infections, but their effects cannot be revealed due to lack of long-term observations. The impact of short-term weather changes may be used as a model. In Russia the biggest numbers of clinical cases of mosquito-borne West Nile infection were registered in 1999 in Volgograd and Astrakhan regions. The analysis of climatic dataset since 1900 shows that 1999 was the hottest year in Volgograd in the 20th century due to a very mild winter (December-March) and a rather hot summer (June-September). The author of the article puts forward a hypothesis that high winter temperatures favored the survival of over-wintering mosquito vectors, and high summer temperature facilitated the growth of the virus in the mosquitoes, as well as propagation of the mosquitoes themselves. The author assumes that conventional threshold temperatures for "beneficial for WNF conditions" in Russia are > or = 3 degrees C in winter, and > or = 22 degrees C in summer. These conditions coincided only in 1948 and 1999. In Astrakhan the "beneficial for WNF conditions" were registered in 30 out of 147 years of observation, and in 12 years between 1964 and 2003. This is not surprising that Astrakhan region is endemic for WNF in accordance with clinical and epidemiological data collected since the sixties. These findings give some hints on the WNF predisposing factors, as well as possibility of weather surveillance and prediction of WNF outbreaks in temperate climatic zones such as Southern Russia.

  13. COMT Val158Met polymorphism interacts with stressful life events and parental warmth to influence decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Qinghua He; Gui Xue; Chuansheng Chen; Zhong-Lin Lu; Chunhui Chen; Xuemei Lei; Yuyun Liu; Jin Li; Bi Zhu; Moyzis, Robert K.; Qi Dong; Antoine Bechara

    2012-01-01

    Both genetic and environmental factors have been shown to influence decision making, but their relative contributions and interactions are not well understood. The present study aimed to reveal possible gene-environment interactions on decision making in a large healthy sample. Specifically, we examined how the frequently studied COMT Val158Met polymorphism interacted with an environmental risk factor (i.e., stressful life events) and a protective factor (i.e., parental warmth) to influence a...

  14. Bidirectional Cross-Linguistic Influence in Event Conceptualization? Expressions of Path among Japanese Learners of English

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Amanda; Gullberg, Marianne

    2011-01-01

    Typological differences in expressions of motion are argued to have consequences for event conceptualization. In SLA, studies generally find transfer of L1 expressions and accompanying event construals, suggesting resistance to the restructuring of event conceptualization. The current study tackles such restructuring in SLA within the context of…

  15. Eye Movements Reveal the Influence of Event Structure on Reading Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swets, Benjamin; Kurby, Christopher A.

    2016-01-01

    When we read narrative texts such as novels and newspaper articles, we segment information presented in such texts into discrete events, with distinct boundaries between those events. But do our eyes reflect this event structure while reading? This study examines whether eye movements during the reading of discourse reveal how readers respond…

  16. Bidirectional Cross-Linguistic Influence in Event Conceptualization? Expressions of Path among Japanese Learners of English

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Amanda; Gullberg, Marianne

    2011-01-01

    Typological differences in expressions of motion are argued to have consequences for event conceptualization. In SLA, studies generally find transfer of L1 expressions and accompanying event construals, suggesting resistance to the restructuring of event conceptualization. The current study tackles such restructuring in SLA within the context of…

  17. Long-Term Weather Data Measurements From A Danish Climate Station And The Weather’s Influence On The Thermal Performance Of Solar Collectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skalík Lukáš

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A weather data evaluation from a climate station in Lyngby, Denmark, was carried out. Twenty years of measurements show that the increase in global radiation was almost 3.5 kWh/m2 per year, corresponding to a growth of the yearly global radiation of 7 % for the last 20 years. The global radiation variation between the least sunny year to the sunniest year was 20%. The increase in diffuse radiation was 1.9 kWh/m2 per year, corresponding to 20 years’ growth of up to 7 %. The annual diffuse radiation of nearly 19 % varied from the least cloudy year to the cloudiest year. A small increase was measured for the ambient air temperature. The measurements showed a yearly increase of 0.04 K per year. The average yearly ambient air temperature variation from the coldest to the warmest year was 3.1 K. According to the seasonal growth of the parameters measured, the ambient air temperature and diffuse radiation increased the most in the summer period, while the global radiation significantly increased in the spring months. The calculations of the solar collector's thermal performance in Lyngby showed that the energy output was mostly dependent on beam radiation. The ambient air temperature did not have a high influence on the thermal performance of the solar collectors compared to the influence of the total solar radiation.

  18. Prospective association between negative life events and initiation of sexual intercourse: the influence of family structure and family income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheney, Marshall K; Oman, Roy F; Vesely, Sara K; Aspy, Cheryl B; Tolma, Eleni L; John, Robert

    2015-03-01

    We examined the prospective association between negative life events and time to initiation of sexual intercourse and the influence of family structure and family income on this association. We followed up a randomly selected sample (n=649) of ethnically diverse parents and their children aged 12 to 17 years over a 5-year period. We conducted Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to examine the relation between negative life events and time to initiation of sexual intercourse. Family structure and family income were assessed as confounders. Negative life events were significant predictors of time to initiation of sexual intercourse in adolescents. After controlling for demographic variables, youths reporting 1 negative life event had a hazard of initiation of sexual intercourse 1.40 times greater and youths reporting 2 or more negative life events had a hazard of initiation of sexual intercourse 1.61 times greater compared with youths reporting no negative life events. Family structure and family income were not significant confounders of the relation between initiation of sexual intercourse and negative life events. Interventions to prevent initiation of sexual intercourse should focus on youths with recent negative life events, regardless of family income and structure.

  19. Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jón Einar Jónsson

    Full Text Available Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1 demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2 impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918 and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995. In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers

  20. Did American social and economic events from 1865 to 1898 influence D.D. Palmer the chiropractor and entrepreneur?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batinić, Josip; Skowron, Mirek; Hammerich, Karin

    2013-09-01

    This paper explores how the social landscape of the latter half of the nineteenth century influenced D. D. Palmer and the many occupations he pursued. It focuses on the geographical area where D. D. lived from 1865 to 1898. This paper will show how the American social and economic events of the time provided favourable circumstances for D.D.'s entrepreneurial successes.

  1. Extreme weather/climate events and disaster prevention and mitigation under global warming background%气候变暖背景下的极端天气气候事件与防灾减灾

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    翟盘茂; 刘静

    2012-01-01

    The definitions of extreme weather/climate events and "climate extreme" are discussed in the paper. On the basis of classifying the extreme events into four categories ( namely extremes caused by variations in a single variable, events related to weather phenomena, compound events and climate extremes) , the related extreme indices as well as their trends and corresponding impacts under the background of global warming are summarized. The results showed that intense precipitation events over mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River tend to be more frequent. Heat waves in eastern China are stronger and drought trend in northeast China and northern China, especially at the end of 20th century and at the beginning of 21 century, is increasing. Furthermore, drought events are frequent in southwest China over recent ten years. In order to minimize losses caused by the increasing meteorological disasters, it is extraordinary essential to strengthen the capability in monitoring and warning of high-impact extremes. Meanwhile, it is also necessary to strengthen engineering defense measures based on changes in extreme events to prevent flash floods and urban waterlogged disasters induced by intense precipitation as well as droughts and heat waves associated with insufficient precipitation.%首先概括极端天气气候事件以及“气候极值”的相关定义,并把极端事件分为单要素的极端事件、与天气现象有关的极端事件、多要素极端事件和极端气候事件.在此基础上,总结上述几类极端事件在气候变暖背景下的变化趋势及影响.指出气候变暖背景下我国长江中下游区域强降水事件更趋频繁,我国东部地区高温热浪天气更为明显;东北华北地区干旱趋势增加,尤其在20世纪末期和21世纪初期最为明显;近10年来西南地区干旱频繁发生.为减轻日益增加的重大气象灾害的损失,我国有必要加强高影响极端事件的监测、预警能力建设,同

  2. The Influence of Freezing Drizzle on Wire Icing during Freezing Fog Events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Yue; NIU Shengjie; L(U) Jingjing

    2013-01-01

    Both direct and indirect effects of freezing drizzle on ice accretion were analyzed for ten freezing drizzle events during a comprehensive ice thickness,fog,and precipitation observation campaign carried out during the winter of 2008 and 2009 at Enshi Radar Station (30°17′N,109°16′E),Hubei Province,China.The growth rate of ice thickness was 0.85 mm h-1 during the freezing drizzle period,while the rate was only 0.4 mm h-1 without sleet and freezing drizzle.The rain intensity,liquid water content (LWC),and diameter of freezing drizzle stayed at low values.The development of microphysical properties of fog was suppressed in the freezing drizzle period.A threshold diameter (Dc) was proposed to estimate the influence of freezing drizzle on different size ranges of fog droplets.Fog droplets with a diameter less than Dc would be affected slightly by freezing drizzle,while larger fog droplets would be affected significantly.Dc had a correlation with the average rain intensity,with a correlation coefficient of 0.78.The relationships among the microphysical properties of fog droplets were all positive when the effect of freezing drizzle was weak,while they became poor positive correlations,or even negative correlations during freezing drizzle period.The direct contribution of freezing drizzle to ice thickness was about 14.5%.Considering both the direct and indirect effects,we suggest that freezing drizzle could act as a “catalyst” causing serious icing conditions.

  3. Pushing the Envelope of Extreme Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. D.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) is one of the few that had superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing millions of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares and the accompanying coronal mass ejections could strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet. What level of solar activity would be necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of the Earth? Can we map out the envelope of space weather along the evolution of the Sun? What would space weather look like if the Sun stopped producing a magnetic field? To what extreme should Space Weather go? These are the extremes of Space Weather explored in this talk.

  4. Influence of an extreme high water event on survival, reproduction, and distribution of snail kites in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennetts, R.E.; Kitchens, W.M.; Dreitz, V.J.

    2002-01-01

    Hydrology frequently has been reported as the environmental variable having the greatest influence on Florida snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis) populations. Although drought has received the most attention, high-water conditions also have been reported to affect kites. Years of high water generally have been reported to be favorable for nesting, although prolonged high water may be detrimental to sustaining suitable habitat. During 1994 and 1995, southern Florida experienced an extreme high water event. This event enabled us to compare survival, nesting success, number of young per successful nest, and spatial distribution of nesting before, during, and after the event. We found no evidence of an effect (either negative or positive) on survival of adult kites. In contrast, juvenile kites experienced the highest survival during the event, although our data suggest greater annual variability than can be explained by the event alone. We found no evidence of an effect of the high water event on nest success or number of young per successful nest. Nest success was highest during the event in the southern portion of the range but was quite similar to other years, both before and after the event. Our data do indicate a substantial shift in the spatial distribution of nesting birds. During the event, nesting activity shifted to higher elevations (i.e., shallower water) in the major nesting areas of the Everglades region. Nesting also occurred in Big Cypress National Preserve during the event, which is typically too dry to support nesting kites. Thus, our data indicate a potential short-term benefit of increased juvenile survival and an expansion of nesting habitat. However, the deterioration of habitat quality from prolonged high water precludes any recommendation for such conditions to be maintained for extended periods. ?? 2002, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  5. Rainfall timing and runoff: The influence of the criterion for rain event separation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Molina-Sanchis Isabel

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Rain is not uniform in time and space in semiarid areas and its distribution is very important for the runoff process. Hydrological studies usually divide rainfall into events. However, defining rain events is complicated, and rain characteristics vary depending on how the events are delimited. Choosing a minimum inter-event time (MIT is a commonly used criterion. Our hypothesis is that there will be an optimal MIT that explains the maximum part of the variance of the runoff, with time to runoff used as a surrogate. The objective is to establish a procedure in order to decide upon this optimal MIT. We developed regressions between time to runoff (T0 and three descriptive variables of rain. Our results show that the optimum MIT is 1 hour, which seems to be the minimum period of time required for water in larger macropores to drain and sufficiently modify the effect of antecedent soil moisture on the runoff generation process. Rain events are classified into three significantly different groups: (1 large and intense rains, (2 light rains on wet soil, and (3 light rains on dry soil. Intense rains produce most of the runoff, but there were significant differences between small events in the runoff generated. Of rain events, 63.75% are single-tip events, and many could be dew.

  6. Daily hay fever forecast in the Netherlands. Radio broadcasting of the expected influence of the weather or subjective complaints of hay fever sufferers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spieksma, F T

    1980-10-01

    The literature on local pollen counts and their significance for hay fever is reviewed and a system for forecasting hay fever is described. Such forecasts have been broadcast by radio in The Netherlands since 1977. The hay fever forecast takes the form of a prognosis (in terms of three grades) of the influence of the expected whether situation on tomorrow's course of the subjective complaints of hay fever sufferers. It is not a forecast of the pollen count. When the subjective complaints of about 150 hay fever patients were used as reference for evaluation, the forecasts proved to have been correct in 72, 85, and 88% of the cases in 1977, 1978, and 1979, respectively. The practical usefulness and the limitations of the system are briefly discussed, with emphasis on the principle that not the local pollen count but the weather should be taken as the main determinative factor for the expected subjective experiences in a group of hay fever sufferers in a certain region.

  7. Influence of the details of topography on weather forecast - evaluation of HARMONIE experiments in the Sochi Olympics domain over the Caucasian mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rontu, Laura; Wastl, Clemens; Niemela, Sami

    2016-02-01

    New fine-resolution surface elevation data was implemented into HARMONIE-AROME-SURFEX Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system. The grid-scale mean orography, used as a basis of the model's terrain-following vertical coordinate, as well as variables for suggested new parametrizations of radiation and momentum fluxes were derived. Validation against the surface observations from the Sochi Winter Olympic Games 2014, provided by the WMO FROST-2014 program at the Caucasian mountains, showed minor degradation of the of then screen-level temperature forecast when only the source orography was updated. Implementation of the orographic radiation parametrizations allowed to alleviate the degradation of scores. Detailed sensitivity studies, done by using three-dimensional and single-column experiments, showed that substantial and physically realistic changes in the downwelling short- and longwave radiation fluxes took place locally. However, their influence on the the simulated screen-level temperature remained small. Comparison of the simulated and observed radiation fluxes would offer a reliable alternative for validation of NWP models. Unfortunately, surface-level radiation observations were not made during the Sochi Olympics.

  8. Influence of weather conditions on fly abundance and its implications for transmission of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus in the North Island of New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henning, J; Schnitzler, F-R; Pfeiffer, D U; Davies, P

    2005-09-01

    Blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) and flesh flies (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) are potential vectors of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) in New Zealand. The associations between habitat and weather factors on the abundance of these flies were investigated. Between October 1999 and June 2001, flies were trapped on open pasture and in dense vegetation patches on farmland in the Himatangi area of the North Island. Five calliphorid species were trapped commonly at scrub edges and the most abundant sarcophagid, Oxysarcodexia varia Walker, was trapped mainly on open pasture. An abundance peak of O. varia was probably associated with the occurrence of a rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) outbreak in the study area. Overall abundance of flies varied according to habitat and species, and species numbers differed between seasons and years. The all-day minimum temperature 3 weeks before trapping was a significant variable in all models of fly abundance, whereas average rainfall did not affect fly abundance. The all-day temperature range was significant only for O. varia. The influence of other climatic factors varied between fly species. Climate dependent variations in fly abundance may contribute to the risk of transmission of RHD, which occurred intermittently on the site during the study period.

  9. Operational Space Weather Activities in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Thomas; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terrance; Viereck, Rodney; Murtagh, William; Rutledge, Robert

    2016-07-01

    We review the current activities in the civil operational space weather forecasting enterprise of the United States. The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, working with partners in the Air Force as well as international operational forecast services to provide predictions, data, and products on a large variety of space weather phenomena and impacts. In October 2015, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and associated Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) that define how the nation will better forecast, mitigate, and respond to an extreme space weather event. The SWAP defines actions involving multiple federal agencies and mandates coordination and collaboration with academia, the private sector, and international bodies to, among other things, develop and sustain an operational space weather observing system; develop and deploy new models of space weather impacts to critical infrastructure systems; define new mechanisms for the transition of research models to operations and to ensure that the research community is supported for, and has access to, operational model upgrade paths; and to enhance fundamental understanding of space weather through support of research models and observations. The SWAP will guide significant aspects of space weather operational and research activities for the next decade, with opportunities to revisit the strategy in the coming years through the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council.

  10. The Influence of Major Life Events on Economic Attitudes in a World of Gene-Environment Interplay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatemi, Peter K.

    2014-01-01

    The role of “genes” on political attitudes has gained attention across disciplines. However, person-specific experiences have yet to be incorporated into models that consider genetic influences. Relying on a gene-environment interplay approach, this study explicates how life-events, such as losing one’s job or suffering a financial loss, influence economic policy attitudes. The results indicate genetic and environmental variance on support for unions, immigration, capitalism, socialism and property tax is moderated by financial risks. Changes in the magnitude of genetic influences, however, are temporary. After two years, the phenotypic effects of the life events remain on most attitudes, but changes in the sources of individual differences do not. Univariate twin models that estimate the independent contributions of genes and environment on the variation of attitudes appear to provide robust baseline indicators of sources of individual differences. These estimates, however, are not event or day specific. In this way, genetic influences add stability, while environment cues change, and this process is continually updated. PMID:24860199

  11. Monthly Weather Review

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  12. Weather Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacmeister, Julio T.

    Awareness of weather and concern about weather in the proximate future certainly must have accompanied the emergence of human self-consciousness. Although weather is a basic idea in human existence, it is difficult to define precisely.

  13. Priming psychic and conjuring abilities of a magic demonstration influences event interpretation and random number generation biases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine eMohr

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Magical ideation and belief in the paranormal is considered to represent a trait-like character; people either believe in it or not. Yet, anecdotes indicate that exposure to an anomalous event can turn sceptics into believers. This transformation is likely to be accompanied by altered cognitive functioning such as impaired judgements of event likelihood. Here, we investigated whether the exposure to an anomalous event changes individuals’ explicit traditional (religious and non-traditional (e.g. paranormal beliefs as well as cognitive biases that have previously been associated with non-traditional beliefs, e.g. repetition avoidance when producing random numbers in a mental dice task. In a classroom, 91 students saw a magic demonstration after their psychology lecture. Before the demonstration, half of the students were told that the performance was done respectively by a conjuror (magician group or a psychic (psychic group. The instruction influenced participants’ explanations of the anomalous event. Participants in the magician, as compared to the psychic group, were more likely to explain the event through conjuring abilities while the reverse was true for psychic abilities. Moreover, these explanations correlated positively with their prior traditional and non-traditional beliefs. Finally, we observed that the psychic group showed more repetition avoidance than the magician group, and this effect remained the same regardless of whether assessed before or after the magic demonstration. We conclude that pre-existing beliefs and contextual suggestions both influence people’s interpretations of anomalous events and associated cognitive biases. Beliefs and associated cognitive biases are likely flexible well into adulthood and change with actual life events.

  14. Space Weather Forecasting: An Enigma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojka, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    The space age began in earnest on October 4, 1957 with the launch of Sputnik 1 and was fuelled for over a decade by very strong national societal concerns. Prior to this single event the adverse effects of space weather had been registered on telegraph lines as well as interference on early WWII radar systems, while for countless eons the beauty of space weather as mid-latitude auroral displays were much appreciated. These prior space weather impacts were in themselves only a low-level science puzzle pursued by a few dedicated researchers. The technology boost and innovation that the post Sputnik era generated has almost single handedly defined our present day societal technology infrastructure. During the decade following Neil's walk on the moon on July 21, 1969 an international thrust to understand the science of space, and its weather, was in progress. However, the search for scientific understand was parsed into independent "stove pipe" categories: The ionosphere-aeronomy, the magnetosphere, the heliosphere-sun. The present day scientific infrastructure of funding agencies, learned societies, and international organizations are still hampered by these 1960's logical divisions which today are outdated in the pursuit of understanding space weather. As this era of intensive and well funded scientific research progressed so did societies innovative uses for space technologies and space "spin-offs". Well over a decade ago leaders in technology, science, and the military realized that there was indeed an adverse side to space weather that with each passing year became more severe. In 1994 several U.S. agencies established the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) to focus scientific attention on the system wide issue of the adverse effects of space weather on society and its technologies. Indeed for the past two decades a significant fraction of the scientific community has actively engaged in understanding space weather and hence crossing the "stove

  15. Space Weather - the Economic Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisi, M. M.; Gibbs, M.

    2015-12-01

    Following on from the UK Government's placement of space weather on it's National Risk Register, in 2011, and the Royal Academy of Engineering's study into the impacts of a severe space weather event, the next piece of key evidence, to underpin future investment decisions, is understanding the socio-economic impact of space weather This poster outlines a study, funded by the UK Space Agency, which will assess the socio-economic cost of space weather, both severe events, such as 1989 & a modern day repeat of the Carrington storm and also the cost of day-to-day impacts. The study will go on to estimate the cost benefit of forecasting and also investigate options for an operational L5 spacecraft mission and knowledge exchange activities with the South African Space Agency. The findings from the initial space weather socio-economic literature review will be presented along with other findings to date and sets out the tasks for the remainder of this programme of work.

  16. The Influence of green areas and roof albedos on air temperatures during Extreme Heat Events in Berlin, Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Schubert

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The mesoscale atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (CCLM with the Double Canyon Effect Parametrization Scheme (DCEP is applied to investigate possible adaption measures to extreme heat events (EHEs for the city of Berlin, Germany. The emphasis is on the effects of a modified urban vegetation cover and roof albedo on near-surface air temperatures. Five EHEs with a duration of 5 days or more are identified for the period 2000 to 2009. A reference simulation is carried out for each EHE with current vegetation cover, roof albedo and urban canopy parameters (UCPs, and is evaluated with temperature observations from weather stations in Berlin and its surroundings. The derivation of the UCPs from an impervious surface map and a 3-D building data set is detailed. Characteristics of the simulated urban heat island for each EHE are analysed in terms of these UCPs. In addition, six sensitivity runs are examined with a modified vegetation cover of each urban grid cell by -25%, 5% and 15%, with a roof albedo increased to 0.40 and 0.65, and with a combination of the largest vegetation cover and roof albedo, respectively. At the weather stations' grid cells, the results show a maximum of the average diurnal change in air temperature during each EHE of 0.82 K and -0.48 K for the -25% and 15% vegetation covers, -0.50 K for the roof albedos of 0.65, and -0.63 K for the combined vegetation and albedo case. The largest effects on the air temperature are detected during midday.

  17. How did you feel when "The Crocodile Hunter" died? Voicing and silencing in conversation influences memory for an autobiographical event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Celia B; Barnier, Amanda J; Sutton, John; Keil, Paul G

    2010-02-01

    Conversations about the past can involve voicing and silencing; processes of validation and invalidation that shape recall. In this experiment we examined the products and processes of remembering a significant autobiographical event in conversation with others. Following the death of Australian celebrity Steve Irwin, in an adapted version of the collaborative recall paradigm, 69 participants described and rated their memories for hearing of his death. Participants then completed a free recall phase where they either discussed the event in groups of three or wrote about the event on their own. Finally, participants completed the original questionnaire again, both 1 week and 1 month after the free recall phase. Discussion influenced later memories for hearing of Irwin's death, particularly memories for emotion and shock. Qualitative analysis of the free recall phase suggested that during conversation a shared understanding of the event developed, but that emotional reactions to the event were silenced in ways that minimised the event's impact. These findings are discussed in terms of the processes and consequences of sharing public and personal memories in conversation.

  18. Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Calisto

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available We have modeled the atmospheric impact of a major solar energetic particle event similar in intensity to what is thought of the Carrington Event of 1–2 September 1859. Ionization rates for the August 1972 solar proton event, which had an energy spectrum comparable to the Carrington Event, were scaled up in proportion to the fluence estimated for both events. We have assumed such an event to take place in the year 2020 in order to investigate the impact on the modern, near future atmosphere. Effects on atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics were investigated using the 3-D Chemistry Climate Model SOCOL v2.0. We find significant responses of NOx, HOx, ozone, temperature and zonal wind. Ozone and NOx have in common an unusually strong and long-lived response to this solar proton event. The model suggests a 3-fold increase of NOx generated in the upper stratosphere lasting until the end of November, and an up to 10-fold increase in upper mesospheric HOx. Due to the NOx and HOx enhancements, ozone reduces by up to 60–80% in the mesosphere during the days after the event, and by up to 20–40% in the middle stratosphere lasting for several months after the event. Total ozone is reduced by up to 20 DU in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 10 DU in the Southern Hemisphere. Free tropospheric and surface air temperatures show a significant cooling of more than 3 K and zonal winds change significantly by 3–5 m s−1 in the UTLS region. In conclusion, a solar proton event, if it took place in the near future with an intensity similar to that ascribed to of the Carrington Event of 1859, must be expected to have a major impact on atmospheric composition throughout the middle atmosphere, resulting in significant and persistent decrease in total ozone.

  19. Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Calisto

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We have modeled the atmospheric impact of a major solar energetic particle event similar in intensity to what is thought of the Carrington Event of 1–2 September 1859. Ionization rates for the August 1972 solar proton event, which had an energy spectrum comparable to the Carrington Event, were scaled up in proportion to the fluence estimated for both events. We have assumed such an event to take place in the year 2020 in order to investigate the impact on the modern, near future atmosphere. Effects on atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics were investigated using the 3-D Chemistry Climate Model SOCOL v2.0. We find significant responses of NOx, HOx, ozone, temperature and zonal wind. Ozone and NOx have in common an unusually strong and long-lived response to this solar proton event. The model suggests a 3-fold increase of NOx generated in the upper stratosphere lasting until the end of November, and an up to 10-fold increase in upper mesospheric HOx. Due to the NOx and HOx enhancements, ozone reduces by up to 60–80% in the mesosphere during the days after the event, and by up to 20–40% in the middle stratosphere lasting for several months after the event. Total ozone is reduced by up to 20 DU in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 10 DU in the Southern Hemisphere. Free tropospheric and surface air temperatures show a significant cooling of more than 3 K and zonal winds change significantly by 3–5 m s−1 in the UTLS region. In conclusion, a solar proton event, if it took place in the near future with an intensity similar to that ascribed to of the Carrington Event of 1859, must be expected to have a major impact on atmospheric composition throughout the middle atmosphere, resulting in significant and persistent decrease in total ozone.

  20. The Influence of Patient Characteristics on Anticholinergic Events in Older People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Saji Salahudeen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: To examine patient characteristics that predict adverse anticholinergic-type events in older people. Methods: This retrospective population-level study included 2,248 hospitalised patients. Individual data on medicines that are commonly associated with anticholinergic events (delirium, constipation and urinary retention were identified. Patient characteristics examined were medicines with anticholinergic effects (ACh burden, age, sex, non-anticholinergic medicines (non-ACM, Charlson comorbidity index scores and ethnicity. The Akaike information criterion was used for model selection. The data were analysed using logistic regression models for anticholinergic events using the software NONMEM. Results: ACh burden was found to be a significant independent predictor for developing an anticholinergic event [adjusted odds ratio (aOR: 3.21, 95% CI: 1.23-5.81] for those taking an average of 5 anticholinergic medicines compared to those taking 1. Both non-ACM and age were also independent risk factors (aOR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.31-1.51 and aOR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.05-1.10, respectively. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first study that has examined population-level data in a nonlinear model framework to predict anticholinergic-type adverse events. This study evaluated the relationship between important patient characteristics and the occurrence of anticholinergic-type events. These findings reinforce the clinical significance of reviewing anticholinergic medicines in older people.

  1. The Poggendorff illusion effect influenced by top-down control: evidence from an event-related brain potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Shu; Su, Yanhua; Wu, Xin; Qiu, Jiang

    2011-10-26

    Event-related brain potentials were used to examine the neural correlates of the visual illusion effect in the Poggendorff illusion. In this study, there were three tasks, namely, illusion task 1, illusion task 2 (similar to the classical Poggendorff figures, where the two oblique lines in which individuals were prone to judge to be collinear, were not collinear in fact), and baseline task. Scalp event-related brain potential analysis revealed that (a) both illusion task 1 and illusion task 2 elicited a more negative event-related brain potential deflection (N400-600) than did baseline task, approximately 400 ms after onset of the stimuli, and (b) high-level cognitive control system is, through enhancing the influence of the context on identifying the relationships of the two oblique lines, involved in generating the Poggendorff illusion.

  2. International Practica Experiences as Events of Influence in a Teacher Candidates' Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynes, Nancy; Allison, John; Julien-Schultz, Lynn

    2012-01-01

    Experience may influence beliefs and beliefs may influence practices. Following these premises, we investigated teacher candidates' post experience reflections nine months after an international practicum where they taught for three weeks in rural Kenya. Teacher candidates were placed in non-governmental organization (NGO) sponsored schools on the…

  3. The Importance of First Impressions: Early Events in Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection Influence Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony M. Cadena

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Tuberculosis remains a major health threat in much of the world. New vaccines against Mycobacterium tuberculosis are essential for preventing infection, disease, and transmission. However, the host immune responses that need to be induced by an effective vaccine remain unclear. Increasingly, it has become clear that early events in infection are of major importance in the eventual outcome of the infection. Studying such events in humans is challenging, as they occur within the lung and thoracic lymph nodes, and any clinical signs of early infection are relatively nonspecific. Nonetheless, clinical studies and animal models of tuberculosis have provided new insights into the local events that occur in the first few weeks of tuberculosis. Development of an effective vaccine requires a clear understanding of the successful (and detrimental early host responses against M. tuberculosis, with the goal to improve upon natural immune responses and prevent infection or disease.

  4. The Importance of First Impressions: Early Events in Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection Influence Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadena, Anthony M; Flynn, JoAnne L; Fortune, Sarah M

    2016-04-05

    Tuberculosis remains a major health threat in much of the world. New vaccines against Mycobacterium tuberculosis are essential for preventing infection, disease, and transmission. However, the host immune responses that need to be induced by an effective vaccine remain unclear. Increasingly, it has become clear that early events in infection are of major importance in the eventual outcome of the infection. Studying such events in humans is challenging, as they occur within the lung and thoracic lymph nodes, and any clinical signs of early infection are relatively nonspecific. Nonetheless, clinical studies and animal models of tuberculosis have provided new insights into the local events that occur in the first few weeks of tuberculosis. Development of an effective vaccine requires a clear understanding of the successful (and detrimental) early host responses against M. tuberculosis, with the goal to improve upon natural immune responses and prevent infection or disease.

  5. Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century

    OpenAIRE

    Notaro, Michael; Schummer, Michael; Zhong, Yafang; Vavrus, Stephen; Van Den Elsen, Lena; Coluccy, John; Hoving, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a o...

  6. Influences of land use and antecedent dry-weather period on pollution level and ecological risk of heavy metals in road-deposited sediment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jin; Hua, Pei; Krebs, Peter

    2017-09-01

    Road-deposited sediment and its adsorbed pollutants have been regarded as significant sources of urban diffuse pollution. In this study, the solid-phase concentrations (mg/g), surface load (mg/m(2)) and chemical fractionation of zinc (Zn), copper (Cu) and cadmium (Cd) were determined. Geo-accumulation (Igeo) and ecological risk (RI) indexes were employed for metal risk assessment. Results show that the highest solid-phase concentrations of Zn and Cu were usually found at an industrial area. However, Cd had the highest solid-phase concentrations at a rural area, followed by a commercial area. The surface loads of Zn and Cu decreased along the city centre to city border gradient. However, Cd was distributed irregularly. In terms of chemical fractionation, the predominant components of Zn and Cd were identified in the unstable exchangeable fractions, indicating high potential ecological risks to the aquatic environments. Cu posed a comparably low risk due to the high proportions of the stable components of residual and oxidisable fractions. According to a two-dimensional hierarchical cluster analysis, Zn and Cu surface loads were dominantly influenced by the antecedent dry-weather period; Cd contents were strongly land-use type dependent. In addition, the enrichment capability was ranked as Zn > Cu > Cd determined by Igeo index. The sampling site dependent potential ecological risk was determined as rural area (R) > commercial city centre (W) > federal highway (B) > industrial area (I) > main road (S) > secondary road (A) by the RI index. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A Century of Monitoring Weather and Crops: The Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddinghaus, Thomas R.; Le Comte, Douglas M.

    1992-02-01

    Publication of a national weekly weather summary called the Weekly Weather Chronicle began in 1872. This summary was the precursor of today's Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (WWCB), a publication that reports global weather and climate conditions relevant to agricultural interests, as well as current national activities and assessments of crop and livestock conditions. The WWCB is produced by the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF), a world agricultural weather information center located in the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) headquarters in Washington, D.C., and jointly staffed by units of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climats. Analysis Center and USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board and National Agricultural Statistics Service. Besides featuring charts and tables (e.g., temperature and precipitation maps and crop progress and condition tables), the WWCB contains summaries and special stories highlighting significant weather events affecting agriculture, such as droughts, torrential rains, floods, unusual warmth, heat waves, severe freezes, heavy snowfall, blizzards, damaging storms, and hurricanes.

  8. Weather in Your Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannegieter, Sandy; Wirkler, Linda

    Facts and activities related to weather and meteorology are presented in this unit. Separate sections cover the following topics: (1) the water cycle; (2) clouds; (3) the Beaufort Scale for rating the speed and force of wind; (4) the barometer; (5) weather prediction; (6) fall weather in Iowa (sleet, frost, and fog); (7) winter weather in Iowa…

  9. Global Significant Weather and Climate Events in 2013 and the Possible Causes%2013年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王艳姣; 高蓓; 周兵; 姜彤; 龚志强; 司东

    2014-01-01

    worldwide in 2013.In early 2013,extreme cold waves and snowstorm attacked parts of Asia,Europe and North America while Australia experienced extreme high temperatures;from June to September,the Central Europe,parts of the Asia and North America suffered rainstorms and floods, while the hot weather hits the most of the Northern Hemisphere in same period.Since June,tropical storms and hurricanes attacked the East Asia,Southeast Asia and the east coast of America.The analysis results show that atmospheric circulation anomalies are the main causes for the above global extreme weather and climate events,and the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies contribute to the atmospher-ic circulation anomalies by air-sea interaction.In addition,during the process of global warming,the aver- age temperature and its amplitudes of variation are all increasing,resulting in the increase of the frequen-cies of extreme weather and climate events,which has provided the favorable conditions for the occurrence of abnormal weathers in many countries and regions of the world.

  10. 2011年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾%Some Extreme Events of Weather, Climate, and Related Phenomena in 2011

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈洪滨; 范学花

    2012-01-01

    2011年世界各地极端天气事件频发.1月,朝鲜半岛经历1945年来最长的寒潮天气;同期,强暴风雪袭击美国,1亿人受影响;4月8日,持续干旱大风导致德国北部小镇遭遇沙尘暴;7~10月的季风强降水致使泰国遭遇自1942年以来最严重的洪灾;高温少雨致使东非地区、南美洲地区的古巴经历严重干旱;9月北极海冰的体积达历史最小.5~9月,我国平均高温日数为1961年以来历史同期次多,多地刷新高温历史极值;2011年我国平均年降水量创60年来最低,多地遭遇严重干旱;而华西和黄淮经历异常严重秋汛.%Extreme events of weather and climate happened frequently over the world in 2011. The longest cold snap since 1945 impacted the Korean peninsula in January. At the same time, the strong winter storm with snowy weather impacted 100 million people across the United States. Storms and heavy monsoonal rains from July to October contributed to the worst flooding in Thailand since 1942. Crippling drought gripped East Africa and Cuba in South America. A freak sandstorm driven by extremely dry conditions and strong winds swept across the town of Rostock in the northern part of Germany on 8 ApriL Arctic sea-ice volume was estimated at a new lowest record in September. The number of high temperature days in China during the period of May to September in 2011 ranked the second since 1961 and the maximum temperature records were broken in many stations. The annual precipitation is the lowest in recent 60 years, which led to the extreme drought in many regions of China. Severe autumn flood happened in western China and Huanghe River - Huaihe River basins.

  11. Quantifying the spatio-temporal pattern of the ground impact of space weather events using dynamical networks formed from the SuperMAG database of ground based magnetometer stations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dods, Joe; Chapman, Sandra; Gjerloev, Jesper

    2016-04-01

    Quantitative understanding of the full spatial-temporal pattern of space weather is important in order to estimate the ground impact. Geomagnetic indices such as AE track the peak of a geomagnetic storm or substorm, but cannot capture the full spatial-temporal pattern. Observations by the ~100 ground based magnetometers in the northern hemisphere have the potential to capture the detailed evolution of a given space weather event. We present the first analysis of the full available set of ground based magnetometer observations of substorms using dynamical networks. SuperMAG offers a database containing ground station magnetometer data at a cadence of 1min from 100s stations situated across the globe. We use this data to form dynamic networks which capture spatial dynamics on timescales from the fast reconfiguration seen in the aurora, to that of the substorm cycle. Windowed linear cross-correlation between pairs of magnetometer time series along with a threshold is used to determine which stations are correlated and hence connected in the network. Variations in ground conductivity and differences in the response functions of magnetometers at individual stations are overcome by normalizing to long term averages of the cross-correlation. These results are tested against surrogate data in which phases have been randomised. The network is then a collection of connected points (ground stations); the structure of the network and its variation as a function of time quantify the detailed dynamical processes of the substorm. The network properties can be captured quantitatively in time dependent dimensionless network parameters and we will discuss their behaviour for examples of 'typical' substorms and storms. The network parameters provide a detailed benchmark to compare data with models of substorm dynamics, and can provide new insights on the similarities and differences between substorms and how they correlate with external driving and the internal state of the

  12. Tomorrow's Forecast: Oceans and Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smigielski, Alan

    1995-01-01

    This issue of "Art to Zoo" focuses on weather and climate and is tied to the traveling exhibition Ocean Planet from the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History. The lessons encourage students to think about the profound influence the oceans have on planetary climate and life on earth. Sections of the lesson plan include: (1) "Ocean…

  13. Change and Stability in Active and Passive Social Influence Dynamics during Natural Drinking Events: A Longitudinal Measurement-Burst Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullum, Jerry; O'Grady, Megan; Armeli, Stephen; Tennen, Howard

    2012-01-01

    We examined the link between social norms and active social influences occurring during natural social drinking contexts. Across 4 yearly measurement-bursts, college students (N = 523) reported daily for 30-day periods on drinking norms, drinking offers, how many drinks they accepted, and personal drinking levels during social drinking events. In contexts where drinking norms were higher, students were more likely to both receive and comply with drinking offers. These acute social influences were highly stable throughout college, but affected men and women differently across time: Women received more drinking offers than men, especially at the beginning of college and when norms were higher, but men complied with more drinking offers per occasion. These effects were not attributable to between-person differences in social drinking motives or drinking levels, nor to within-person patterns of situation-selection. The present work suggests that context-specific drinking norms catalyze active social influence attempts, and further promote compliance drinking.

  14. Proportionate Responses to Life Events Influence Clinicians' Judgments of Psychological Abnormality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Nancy S.; Paulus, Daniel J.; Gonzalez, Jeffrey S.; Khalife, Danielle

    2012-01-01

    Psychological abnormality is a fundamental concept in the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" ("DSM-IV-TR"; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) and in all clinical evaluations. How do practicing clinical psychologists use the context of life events to judge the abnormality of a person's current behaviors? The appropriate…

  15. 40 CFR 50.14 - Treatment of air quality monitoring data influenced by exceptional events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Management Program or the State has ensured that the burner employed basic smoke management practices. If an exceptional event occurs using the basic smoke management practices approach, the State must undertake a... & initialdescription deadline Detailed documentationsubmission deadline PM2.5/24-Hr Standard (35 µg/m3) Promulgated...

  16. Proportionate Responses to Life Events Influence Clinicians' Judgments of Psychological Abnormality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Nancy S.; Paulus, Daniel J.; Gonzalez, Jeffrey S.; Khalife, Danielle

    2012-01-01

    Psychological abnormality is a fundamental concept in the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" ("DSM-IV-TR"; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) and in all clinical evaluations. How do practicing clinical psychologists use the context of life events to judge the abnormality of a person's current behaviors? The appropriate…

  17. The Influence of Contour Fragmentation on Recognition Memory: An Event-Related Potential Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodeur, Mathieu B.; Debruille, J. Bruno; Renoult, Louis; Prevost, Marie; Dionne-Dostie, Emmanuelle; Buchy, Lisa; Lepage, Martin

    2011-01-01

    The present study was carried out to examine how the event-related potentials to fragmentation predict recognition success. Stimuli were abstract meaningless figures that were either complete or fragmented to various extents but still recoverable. Stimuli were first encoded as part of a symmetry discrimination task. In a subsequent recognition…

  18. Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Dethloff, Klaus; Francis, Jennifer A.; Hall, Richard J.; Hanna, Edward; Kim, Seong-Joong; Screen, James A.; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Vihma, Timo

    2016-11-01

    Are continuing changes in the Arctic influencing wind patterns and the occurrence of extreme weather events in northern mid-latitudes? The chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation precludes easy answers. The topic is a major science challenge, as continued Arctic temperature increases are an inevitable aspect of anthropogenic climate change. We propose a perspective that rejects simple cause-and-effect pathways and notes diagnostic challenges in interpreting atmospheric dynamics. We present a way forward based on understanding multiple processes that lead to uncertainties in Arctic and mid-latitude weather and climate linkages. We emphasize community coordination for both scientific progress and communication to a broader public.

  19. Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Weather Forecasts in the ECMWF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozzo, A.; Benedetti, A.; Rodwell, M. J.; Bechtold, P.; Remy, S.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols play an important role in the energy balance of the Earth system via direct scattering and absorpiton of short-wave and long-wave radiation and indirect interaction with clouds. Diabatic heating or cooling by aerosols can also modify the vertical stability of the atmosphere and influence weather pattern with potential impact on the skill of global weather prediction models. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides operational daily analysis and forecast of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for five aerosol species using a prognostic model which is part of the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-IFS). The aerosol component was developed during the research project Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC). Aerosols can have a large impact on the weather forecasts in case of large aerosol concentrations as found during dust storms or strong pollution events. However, due to its computational burden, prognostic aerosols are not yet feasible in the ECMWF operational weather forecasts, and monthly-mean climatological fields are used instead. We revised the aerosol climatology used in the operational ECMWF IFS with one derived from the MACC reanalysis. We analyse the impact of changes in the aerosol radiative effect on the mean model climate and in medium-range weather forecasts, also in comparison with prognostic aerosol fields. The new climatology differs from the previous one by Tegen et al 1997, both in the spatial distribution of the total AOD and the optical properties of each aerosol species. The radiative impact of these changes affects the model mean bias at various spatial and temporal scales. On one hand we report small impacts on measures of large-scale forecast skill but on the other hand details of the regional distribution of aerosol concentration have a large local impact. This is the case for the northern Indian Ocean where the radiative impact of the mineral

  20. Influence of heavy ion flux on single event effect testing in memory devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jie; Liu, Jie; Sun, Youmei; Hou, Mingdong; Xi, Kai; Liu, Tianqi; Wang, Bin; Ye, Bing

    2017-09-01

    The natural space presents a particle flux variable environment and choosing a suitable flux value for ground-based single event experiments is an unresolved problem so far. In this work, various types of memory devices have been tested over the ion flux range from 10 to 105 ions/(cm2·s) using different ions covering LET from 10.1 to 99.8 MeV·cm2/mg. It was found that for most devices the error rates of single event upsets are affected by the applied flux value. And the effect involving flux becomes prominent as it is increased above 103 ions/(cm2·s). Different devices behave differently as the flux is increased and the flux effect depends strongly on the LET of the impinging ions. The results concluded in this experiment are discussed in detail and recommendations for choosing appropriate experimental flux are given.

  1. The influence of adverse events on the quality of nursing care and patients’ safety

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Mika; Grażyna Nowak-Starz; Ireneusz Kotela

    2015-01-01

    Introduction : High quality of medical services is essential to proper healthcare functioning and to achieve aims. High quality of nursing care should have the same characteristics as the whole healthcare system. Although current healthcare systems focus on best quality medical services, the number of adverse events is increasing. It sometimes happens that a patient suffers injuries not due to his/her illness, but because of poorly organised healthcare. Aim of the research : To assess t...

  2. Influence of the Arab Spring Events on International Political Processes: Expert Opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataliya А. Pipchenko

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the effects of the Arab Spring on international political processes and establishes that the global community is interested in this topic from time to time, when confrontations heat up in the Middle East or in connection with the international political reaction to the events taking place in Syria; the greatest interest in this topic is demonstrated by users from the Middle East and Asia, as well as from the USA and Canada.

  3. Respective influence of veterinarians and local institutional stakeholders on the event-driven surveillance system for bovine brucellosis in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronner, Anne; Morignat, Eric; Calavas, Didier

    2015-08-01

    The event-driven surveillance system for bovine brucellosis implemented in France aims to ensure the early detection of cases of bovine brucellosis, a disease of which the country has been declared free since 2005. It consists of mandatory notification of bovine abortions by farmers and veterinarians. However, as underlined by a previous qualitative study, several factors influence the decision-making process of actors in the field. This process is particularly influenced by the level of cooperation between institutional stakeholders in their département (a French département being an administrative and territorial unit), veterinarians and farmers. In this context, the objectives of this study were 1) to quantify the respective influence of veterinarians and all local institutional stakeholders on the proportion of notifying farmers and identify which actors have most influence on farmers' decisions; 2) to analyse whether the influence of veterinarians is correlated with that of local institutional stakeholders. In addition to factors relating to the farm itself (production type and herd size), the proportion of notifying farmers was influenced by the number of veterinarians per practice and the veterinary practice's membership of a technical association. This proportion was also influenced by unknown factors relating to the veterinary practice and, to a lesser extent, the département in which the farm was located. There was no correlation between variability in the proportion of notifying farmers among veterinary practices per département and the effect of the département itself. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the influence of veterinarians and local institutional stakeholders on the notification process for a mandatory disease. In addition to carrying out regulatory interventions, veterinarians play a major role in encouraging farmers to participate in the surveillance systems. The results of this study, combined with a previous

  4. Radiation Belt Environment Model: Application to Space Weather and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fok, Mei-Ching H.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the dynamics and variability of the radiation belts are of great scientific and space weather significance. A physics-based Radiation Belt Environment (RBE) model has been developed to simulate and predict the radiation particle intensities. The RBE model considers the influences from the solar wind, ring current and plasmasphere. It takes into account the particle drift in realistic, time-varying magnetic and electric field, and includes diffusive effects of wave-particle interactions with various wave modes in the magnetosphere. The RBE model has been used to perform event studies and real-time prediction of energetic electron fluxes. In this talk, we will describe the RBE model equation, inputs and capabilities. Recent advancement in space weather application and artificial radiation belt study will be discussed as well.

  5. Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Catto, Jennifer L.

    2017-01-01

    Phenomena such as cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms can cause extreme weather in various regions throughout the world. Although these phenomena have been examined in numerous studies, they have not all been systematically examined in combination with each other, including in relation to extreme precipitation and extreme winds throughout the world. Consequently, the combined influence of these phenomena represents a substantial gap in the current understanding of the causes of extreme weather events. Here we present a systematic analysis of cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms in combination with each other, as represented by seven different types of storm combinations. Our results highlight the storm combinations that most frequently cause extreme weather in various regions of the world. The highest risk of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speeds is found to be associated with a triple storm type characterized by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Our findings reveal new insight on the relationships between cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms and clearly demonstrate the importance of concurrent phenomena in causing extreme weather.

  6. To what extent can global warming events influence scaling properties of climatic fluctuations in glacial periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Carbone, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    The Earth's climate is an extremely unstable complex system consisting of nonlinear and still rather unknown interactions among atmosphere, land surface, ice and oceans. The system is mainly driven by solar irradiance, even if internal components as volcanic eruptions and human activities affect the atmospheric composition thus acting as a driver for climate changes. Since the extreme climate variability is the result of a set of phenomena operating from daily to multi-millennial timescales, with different correlation times, a study of the scaling properties of the system can evidence non-trivial persistent structures, internal or external physical processes. Recently, the scaling properties of the paleoclimate changes have been analyzed by distinguish between interglacial and glacial climates [Shao and Ditlevsen, 2016]. The results show that the last glacial record (20-120 kyr BP) presents some elements of multifractality, while the last interglacial period (0-10 kyr BP), say the Holocene period, seems to be characterized by a mono-fractal structure. This is associated to the absence of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the interglacial climate that could be the cause for the absence of multifractality. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the period between 18 and 27 kyr BP, i.e. during the Last Glacial Period, in which a single DO event have been registred. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) we were able to detect a timescale separation within the Last Glacial Period (20-120 kyr BP) in two main components: a high-frequency component, related to the occurrence of DO events, and a low-frequency one, associated to the cooling/warming phase switch [Alberti et al., 2014]. Here, we investigate the scaling properties of the climate fluctuations within the Last Glacial Period, where abrupt climate changes, characterized by fast increase of temperature usually called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, have been particularly pronounced. By using the

  7. Global markets and the differential effects of climate and weather on conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, K. C.; Hsiang, S. M.; Cane, M. A.

    2011-12-01

    Both climate and weather have been attributed historically as possible drivers for violence. Previous empirical studies have either focused on isolating local idiosyncratic weather variation or have conflated weather with spatially coherent climatic changes. This paper provides the first study of the differential impacts of climate and weather variation by employing methods developed in earlier work linking the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the onset of civil conflicts. By separating the effects of climate from local weather, we are able to test possible mechanisms by which atmospheric changes can cause violence. It is generally difficult to separate the effect of year-to-year climate variations from other global events that might drive conflict. We avoid this problem by examining the set of tropical countries that are strongly teleconnected to ENSO. For this region, the ENSO cycle parallels the common year-to-year pattern of violence. Using ENSO, we isolate the influence of climatic changes from other global determinants of violence and compare it with the effect of local weather variations. We find that while climate affects the onset of civil conflicts in teleconnected countries, local weather has no significant effect. Productivity overall as well as across major sectors is more affected by local weather than by climatic variation. This is particularly evident in the agricultural sector where total value and cereal yield decline much greater from a 1°C increase in local temperature than a 1°C increase in ENSO. However, when examining the effect on food prices, we find that ENSO is associated with a large and statistically significant increase in cereal prices but no effect from hotter local temperatures. Altogether, this evidence points toward the ability of global and regional commodity markets to insure against the effects of local weather variation and their limitations in containing losses from aggregate shocks such as El Nino events. We posit

  8. To what extent does variability of historical rainfall series influence extreme event statistics of sewer system surcharge and overflows?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Thorndahl, Søren

    2009-01-01

    In urban drainage modelling long term extreme statistics has become an important basis for decision-making e.g. in connection with renovation projects. Therefore it is of great importance to minimize the uncertainties concerning long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer...... overflow (CSO) in drainage systems. These uncertainties originate from large uncertainties regarding rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper investigates how the choice of rainfall time series influences the extreme events statistics of max water levels in manholes and CSO...... gauges are located at a distance of max 20 kilometers from the catchment. All gauges are included in the Danish national rain gauge system which was launched in 1976. The paper describes to what extent the extreme events statistics based on these 9 series diverge from each other and how this diversity...

  9. To what extent does variability of historical rainfall series influence extreme event statistics of sewer system surcharge and overflows?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Thorndahl, Søren

    2008-01-01

    In urban drainage modeling long term extreme statistics has become an important basis for decision-making e.g. in connection with renovation projects. Therefore it is of great importance to minimize the uncertainties concerning long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer...... overflow (CSO) in drainage systems. These uncertainties originate from large uncertainties regarding rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper investigates how the choice of rainfall time series influences the extreme events statistics of max water levels in manholes and CSO...... gauges are located at a distance of max 20 kilometers from the catchment. All gauges are included in the Danish national rain gauge system which was launched in 1976. The paper describes to what extent the extreme events statistics based on these 9 series diverge from each other and how this diversity...

  10. Influence of 5-jet events on the measurement of the mass of the W boson in e+ e- collisions

    CERN Document Server

    Christiansen, Tim

    2000-01-01

    A measurement of the mass of the W boson in hadronic e+e -> W+W- decays was performed with 183 pb-1 of data recorded with the OPAL detector at a centre-of-mass energy of s = 189 GeV. Using a one-dimensional reweighting technique where the W width is fixed to its Standard Model prediction, the mass was determined to M4q W = 80.360+-0.105stat. +- 0.093syst.GeV Furthermore, the influence of a reconstruction of W+W- > qq¯qq¯ (g) events as five jets on both the statistical and the systematic uncertainty was studied and optimised. It was also shown the feasibility of a two-dimensional analysis, a simultaneous fit to the two W masses of each event.

  11. The influence of caffeine on spatial-selective attention : an event-related potential study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Ruiter, MB; Snel, J; Lorist, MM; Ruijter, J

    2000-01-01

    Objectives: Following the indications of previous studies that caffeine might have a specific effect on the processing of spatial information compared with other types of information, the present study investigated the influence of caffeine on an often used spatial-selective attention task. Methods:

  12. Early Top-Down Influences on Bistable Perception Revealed by Event-Related Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitts, Michael A.; Gavin, William J.; Nerger, Janice L.

    2008-01-01

    A longstanding debate exists in the literature concerning bottom-up vs. top-down influences on bistable perception. Recently, a technique has been developed to measure early changes in brain activity (via ERPs) related to perceptual reversals (Kornmeier & Bach, 2004). An ERP component, the reversal negativity (RN) has been identified, and is…

  13. The impacts of weather and pollution on human mortality in Birmingham, Alabama and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smoyer, Karen E.; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Greene, J. Scott; Ye, Hengchun

    2000-06-01

    Past studies have examined how both extreme weather and atmospheric pollutants influence human mortality. However, the differential and/or synergistic impacts of weather and pollution on mortality are poorly understood. This relationship is particularly notable in summer, when both extreme weather and high pollution episodes are frequent. The goal of this study is to describe the relationship between atmospheric conditions (as characterized by weather and air pollution) and mortality in the summer season for Birmingham, Alabama and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. To assess the health impacts of both weather and pollution (ozone and total suspended particulates, or TSP), we used a synoptic, or air mass-based, approach to take into account the entire weather situation, rather than individual weather elements. This method was used to identify offensive air masses, which are associated with elevated mortality, and then to investigate which individual or combination of atmospheric conditions poses the greatest threat to human health in terms of acute (daily) mortality.In both cities, offensive weather events have a greater impact on acute mortality than high concentrations of TSP or ozone. The highest mortality levels occur when the hottest, but not the most polluted, air mass is present in each city. In Philadelphia, neither TSP nor ozone appear to contribute an add on effect to weather-related mortality. Under non-offensive weather situations, pollution concentrations are associated with increased mortality in Philadelphia. Yet, regardless of pollution concentration, mortality levels are much lower for these air masses than for offensive events. Pollution appears to be more important for mortality in Birmingham. Although Birmingham's high-mortality (offensive) air mass is not the most polluted, offensive air mass days with high pollution concentrations nonetheless exhibit higher mean mortality than offensive air mass days with low pollution concentrations. Also different

  14. Weather and Tourism: Thermal Comfort and Zoological Park Visitor Attendance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Perkins

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Weather events have the potential to greatly impact business operations and profitability, especially in outdoor-oriented economic sectors such as Tourism, Recreation, and Leisure (TRL. Although a substantive body of work focuses on the macroscale impacts of climate change, less is known about how daily weather events influence attendance decisions, particularly relating to the physiological thermal comfort levels of each visitor. To address this imbalance, this paper focuses on ambient thermal environments and visitor behavior at the Phoenix and Atlanta zoos. Daily visitor attendances at each zoo from September 2001 to June 2011, were paired with the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET to help measure the thermal conditions most likely experienced by zoo visitors. PET was calculated using hourly atmospheric variables of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and cloud cover from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at each zoological park location and then classified based on thermal comfort categories established by the American Society of Heating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE. The major findings suggested that in both Phoenix and Atlanta, optimal thermal regimes for peak attendance occurred within “slightly warm” and “warm” PET-based thermal categories. Additionally, visitors seemed to be averse to the most commonly occurring thermal extreme since visitors appeared to avoid the zoo on excessively hot days in Phoenix and excessively cold days in Atlanta. Finally, changes in the daily weather impacted visitor attendance as both zoos experienced peak attendance on days with dynamic changes in the thermal regimes and depressed attendances on days with stagnant thermal regimes. Building a better understanding of how weather events impact visitor demand can help improve our assessments of the potential impacts future climate change may have on tourism.

  15. Space weather monitoring with neutron monitor measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steigies, Christian [Christian-Albrechts-Universitaet zu Kiel (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Space Weather affects many areas of the modern society, advance knowledge about space weather events is important to protect personnel and infrastructure. Cosmic Rays (CR) measurements by ground-based Neutron Monitors are influenced by Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), the intensity of the ever present Cosmic Rays is reduced in a Forbush decrease (Fd). In the case of very energetic CMEs, the measured intensity can be significantly increased in a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE). By detecting the anisotropy of the CR environment, a CME can be detected hours before it arrives at Earth. During a GLE the high-energy particles from the Sun can be detected before the more abundant lower energy particles arrive at Earth, thus allowing to take protective measures. Since the beginning of the Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB) project, which has been started in 2008 with funding from the European Commission, real-time data from Neutron Monitors around the world has been made available through one web-portal. We have more than doubled the number of stations providing data since the start of the project to now over 30 stations. The effectiveness of the ALERT applications which are based on NMDB data has been shown by the recent GLE71. We present different applications through which the measurements and different data products are accessible.

  16. Space Weather, Environment and Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean

    2006-01-01

    Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

  17. Does the type of event influence how user interactions evolve on Twitter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena del Val

    Full Text Available The number of people using on-line social networks as a new way of communication is continually increasing. The messages that a user writes in these networks and his/her interactions with other users leave a digital trace that is recorded. Thanks to this fact and the use of network theory, the analysis of messages, user interactions, and the complex structures that emerge is greatly facilitated. In addition, information generated in on-line social networks is labeled temporarily, which makes it possible to go a step further analyzing the dynamics of the interaction patterns. In this article, we present an analysis of the evolution of user interactions that take place in television, socio-political, conference, and keynote events on Twitter. Interactions have been modeled as networks that are annotated with the time markers. We study changes in the structural properties at both the network level and the node level. As a result of this analysis, we have detected patterns of network evolution and common structural features as well as differences among the events.

  18. Space Weather Effects of Coronal Mass Ejection

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K. N. Iyer; R. M. Jadav; A. K. Jadeja; P. K. Manoharan; Som Sharma; Hari Om Vats

    2006-06-01

    This paper describes the space weather effects of a major CME which was accompanied by extremely violent events on the Sun. The signatures of the event in the interplanetary medium (IPM) sensed by Ooty Radio Telescope, the solar observations by LASCO coronagraph onboard SOHO, GOES X-ray measurements, satellite measurements of the interplanetary parameters, GPS based ionospheric measurements, the geomagnetic storm parameter Dst and ground based ionosonde data are used in the study to understand the space weather effects in the different regions of the solar-terrestrial environment. The effects of this event are compared and possible explanations attempted.

  19. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

    2014-05-01

    Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

  20. Weathering a Perfect Storm from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.

  1. Significant influence of the boreal summer monsoon flow on the Indian Ocean response during dipole events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Krishnan; Panickal, Swapna

    2010-05-01

    A majority of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events in the last 50-years were accompanied by enhanced summer-monsoon circulation and above-normal precipitation over central-north India. Given that IODs peak during boreal-autumn following the summer-monsoon season, this study examines the role of the summer-monsoon flow on the Indian Ocean (IO) response using a suite of ocean model experiments and supplementary data-diagnostics. The present results indicate that if the summer-monsoon Hadley-type circulation strengthens during positive-IOD events, then the strong off-equatorial south-easterly winds over the northern flanks of the intensified Australian High can effectively promote upwelling in the south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean and amplify the zonal-gradient of the IO heat-content response. While it is noted that a strong-monsoon cross-equatorial flow by itself may not generate a dipole-like response, a strengthening (weakening) of monsoon easterlies to the south-of-equator during positive-IOD events tends to reinforce (hinder) the zonal-gradient of the upper-ocean heat-content response. The findings show that an intensification of monsoonal-winds during positive-IOD periods produces nonlinear amplification of easterly wind-stress anomalies to the south-of-equator due to the nonlinear dependence of wind-stress on wind-speed. It is noted that such an off-equatorial intensification of easterlies over SH enhances upwelling in the eastern IO off Sumatra-Java; and the thermocline shoaling provides a zonal pressure-gradient which drives anomalous eastward equatorial under-currents (EUC) in the sub-surface. Furthermore, the combination of positive-IOD and stronger-than-normal monsoonal flow favors intensification of shallow transient meridional-overturning circulation in the eastern IO; and enhances the feed of cold subsurface off-equatorial waters to the EUC. References: P. Swapna and R. Krishnan 2008: Geophy. Res. Lett. 35, L14S04, doi: 10.1029/ 2008GL033430 R

  2. Information structure influences depth of syntactic processing: event-related potential evidence for the Chomsky illusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Bastiaansen, Marcel; Yang, Yufang; Hagoort, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Information structure facilitates communication between interlocutors by highlighting relevant information. It has previously been shown that information structure modulates the depth of semantic processing. Here we used event-related potentials to investigate whether information structure can modulate the depth of syntactic processing. In question-answer pairs, subtle (number agreem