Sample records for warning system based

  1. A review of studies on community based early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Macherera


    Full Text Available Community-based early warning systems involve community driven collection and analysis of information that enable warning messages to help a community to react to a hazard and reduce the resulting loss or harm. Most early warning systems are designed at the national or global level. Local communities’ capacity to predict weather conditions using indigenous knowledge has been demonstrated in studies focusing on climate change and agriculture in some African countries. This review was motivated by successes made in non-disease specific community-based early warning systems with a view to identify opportunities for developing similar systems for malaria. This article reviewed the existing community-based early warning systems documented in literature. The types of disasters that are addressed by these systems and the methodologies utilised in the development of the systems were identified. The review showed that most of the documented community-based early warning systems focus on natural disasters such as floods, drought, and landslides. Community-based early warning systems for human diseases are very few, even though such systems exist at national and regional and global levels. There is a clear gap in terms of community-based malaria early warning systems. The methodologies for the development of the community-based early warning systems reviewed mainly derive from the four elements of early warning systems; namely risk knowledge, monitoring, warning communication and response capability. The review indicated the need for the development of community based early warning systems for human diseases. Keywords: community; early warning; disaster; hazards

  2. A review of studies on community based early warning systems


    Margaret Macherera; Moses J. Chimbari


    Community-based early warning systems involve community driven collection and analysis of information that enable warning messages to help a community to react to a hazard and reduce the resulting loss or harm. Most early warning systems are designed at the national or global level. Local communities’ capacity to predict weather conditions using indigenous knowledge has been demonstrated in studies focusing on climate change and agriculture in some African countries. This review was motivated...

  3. Software for ASS-500 based early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipinski, P.; Isajenko, K.


    The article describes the software for the management of early warning system based on ASS-500 station. The software can communicate with the central computer using TCP/IP protocol. This allows remote control of the station through modem or local area network connection. The article describes Windows based user interface of the program

  4. LED-Based High-Voltage Lines Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eldar MUSA


    Full Text Available LED-based system, running with the current of high-voltage lines and converting the current flowing through the line into the light by using a toroid transformer, has been developed. The transformer’s primary winding is constituted by the high voltage power line. Toroidal core consists of two equal parts and the secondary windings are evenly placed on these two parts. The system is mounted on the high-voltage lines as a clamp. The secondary winding ends are connected in series by the connector on the clamp. LEDs are supplied by the voltage at the ends of secondary. Current flowing through highvoltage transmission lines is converted to voltage by the toroidal transformer and the light emitting LEDs are supplied with this voltage. The theory of the conversion of the current flowing through the line into the light is given. The system, running with the current of the line and converting the current into the light, has been developed. System has many application areas such as warning high voltage lines (warning winches to not hinder the high-voltage lines when working under the lines, warning planes to not touch the high-voltage lines, remote measurement of high-voltage line currents, and local illumination of the line area

  5. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe


    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  6. Design of Early Warning System Based on Wireless Sensor Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gan Bo


    Full Text Available In order to solve the shortcomings of the landslide monitoring technology method, a set of landslides monitoring and early warning system is designed. It can achieve real-time sensor data acquisition, remote transmission and query display. In addition, aiming at the harsh environment of landslide monitoring and the performance requirements of the monitoring system, an improved minimum hop routing protocol is proposed. It can reduce network energy consumption, enhance network robustness, and improve node layout and networking flexibility. In order to realize the remote transmission of data, GPRS wireless communication is used to transmit monitoring data. Combined with remote monitoring center, real-time data display, query, preservation and landslide warning and prediction are realized. The results show that the sensor data acquisition system is accurate, the system is stable, and the node network is flexible. Therefore, the monitoring system has a good use value.

  7. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System for Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Brigandì


    Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall

  8. Analysis and design of the ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging (United States)

    Wang, Wen-cong; Hu, Hui-jun; Jin, Dong-dong; Chu, Xin-bo; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Liu, Jin-sheng; Xiao, Ting; Shao, Si-pei


    Ultraviolet warning technology is one of the important methods for missile warning. It provides a very effective way to detect the target for missile approaching alarm. With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. Compared to infrared warning, the ultraviolet warning has high efficiency and low false alarm rate. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge of missile warning technology. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. For the ultraviolet warning system, the optimal working waveband is 250 nm 280 nm (Solar Blind UV) due to the strong absorption of ozone layer. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure includes a primary optical system, an ultraviolet reflector array, an ultraviolet imaging system and an ultraviolet interference imaging system. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm.A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

  9. Collision warning system based on probability density functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broek, T.H.A. van den; Ploeg, J.


    In this paper, a collision warning method between the host vehicle and target object(s) is studied. A probabilistic collision warning method is proposed, which is, in particular, useful for objects, e.g. vulnerable road users, which trajectories can rapidly change heading and/or velocity with

  10. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.


    Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the

  11. Research on Vegetable Pest Warning System Based on Multidimensional Big Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changzhen Zhang


    Full Text Available Pest early warning technology is part of the prerequisite for the timely and effective control of pest outbreaks. Traditional pest warning system with artificial mathematical statistics, radar, and remote sensing has some deficiency in many aspects, such as higher cost, weakness of accuracy, low efficiency, and so on. In this study, Pest image data was collected and information about four major vegetable pests (Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius, Phyllotreta striolata (Fabricius, Plutella xylostella (Linnaeus, and Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande (Thysanoptera, Thripidae in southern China was extracted. A multi-sensor network system was constructed to collect small-scale environmental data on vegetable production sites. The key factors affecting the distribution of pests were discovered by multi-dimensional information, such as soil, environment, eco-climate, and meteorology of vegetable fields, and finally, the vegetable pest warning system that is based on multidimensional big data (VPWS-MBD was implemented. Pest and environmental data from Guangzhou Dongsheng Bio-Park were collected from June 2017 to February 2018. The number of pests is classified as level I (0–56, level II (57–131, level III (132–299, and level IV (above 300 by K-Means algorithm. The Pearson correlation coefficient and the grey relational analysis algorithm were used to calculate the five key influence factors of rainfall, soil temperature, air temperature, leaf surface humidity, and soil moisture. Finally, Back Propagation (BP Neural Network was used for classification prediction. The result shows: I-level warning accuracy was 96.14%, recall rate was 97.56%; II-level pest warning accuracy was 95.34%, the recall rate was 96.45%; III-level pest warning accuracy of 100%, the recall rate was 96.28%; IV-level pest warning accuracy of 100%, recall rate was 100%. It proves that the early warning system can effectively predict vegetable pests and achieve the early warning of

  12. Radar-based Flood Warning System for Houston, Texas and Its Performance Evaluation (United States)

    Fang, N.; Bedient, P.


    Houston has a long history of flooding problems as a serious nature. For instance, Houstonians suffered from severe flood inundation during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and Hurricane Ike in 2008. Radar-based flood warning systems as non-structural tools to provide accurate and timely warnings to the public and private entities are greatly needed for urban areas prone to flash floods. Fortunately, the advent of GIS, radar-based rainfall estimation using NEXRAD, and real-time delivery systems on the internet have allowed flood alert systems to provide important advanced warning of impending flood conditions. Thus, emergency personnel can take proper steps to mitigate against catastrophic losses. The Rice and Texas Medical Center (TMC) Flood Alert System (FAS2) has been delivering warning information with 2 to 3 hours of lead time to facility personnel in a readily understood format for more than 40 events since 1997. The system performed well during these major rainfall events with R square value of 93%. The current system has been improved by incorporating a new hydraulic prediction tool - FloodPlain Map Library (FPML). The FPML module aims to provide visualized information such as floodplain maps and water surface elevations instead of just showing hydrographs in real time based on NEXRAD radar rainfall data. During Hurricane Ike (September, 2008), FAS2 successfully provided precise and timely flood warning information to TMC with the peak flow difference of 3.6% and the volume difference of 5.6%; timing was excellent for this double-peaked event. With the funding from the Texas Department of Transportation, a similar flood warning system has been developed at a critical transportation pass along Highway 288 in Houston, Texas. In order to enable emergency personnel to begin flood preparation with as much lead time as possible, FAS2 is being used as a prototype to develop warning system for other flood-prone areas such as City of Sugar Land.

  13. Strategic framework for socioeconomic viability of community-based early warning system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, M.J.C. van den; Posthumus, A.L.


    Christian Aid, Cordaid, PVGS and Practical Action established a community-based early warning system for cross-border floods between India and Nepal in 45 Indian villages. The project will scale to 95 villages early 2016. The number of stakeholders and organizational levels of this system with four

  14. Environmental Warning System Based on the DPSIR Model: A Practical and Concise Method for Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenqi Wang


    Full Text Available Though we are in urgent need of environmental warnings to slow environmental deterioration, currently, there is no internationally concise method for environmental warnings. In addition, the existing approaches do not combine the three aspects of ecology, resources, and environment. At the same time, the three elements of the environment (air, water, and soil are separated in most environmental warning systems. Thus, the method this paper gives is an innovative attempt and aims to make environmental assessment more practical. This paper establishes the index system of an environmental early warning based on the Driving–Pressure–State–Influence–Response (DPSIR model. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP method was used to determine the weights. Next, single and integrated index methods further assess the environmental warning state, in which the weighted summation method is used to summarize the data and results. The case of Tianjin is used to confirm the applicability of this method. In conclusion, the method in this paper is more well-behaved and, therefore, more suitable to assist cities in their environmental assessment.

  15. Development of a hybrid earthquake early warning system based on single sensor technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gravirov, V.V.; Kislov, K.V.


    There are two methods to earthquake early warning system: the method based on a network of seismic stations and the single-sensor method. Both have advantages and drawbacks. The current systems rely on high density seismic networks. Attempts at implementing techniques based on the single-station principle encounter difficulties in the identification of earthquake in noise. The noise may be very diverse, from stationary to impulsive. It seems a promising line of research to develop hybrid warning systems with single-sensors being incorporated in the overall early warning network. This will permit using all advantages and will help reduce the radius of the hazardous zone where no earthquake warning can be produced. The main problems are highlighted and the solutions of these are discussed. The system is implemented to include three detection processes in parallel. The first is based on the study of the co-occurrence matrix of the signal wavelet transform. The second consists in using the method of a change point in a random process and signal detection in a moving time window. The third uses artificial neural networks. Further, applying a decision rule out the final earthquake detection is carried out and estimate its reliability. (author)

  16. An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks. (United States)

    Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong


    Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords

  17. Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67 (United States)

    Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.


    Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

  18. Radiation early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitzer, C.; Kloesch, W.; Stadtmann, H.


    A prototype station for a Radiation Early Warning Network has been designed and set up at the Austrian Research Centre Seibersdorf. This unit was developed to measure all relevant parameters necessary to detect and track radioactive contamination at an early stage. The station consists of the following components: Radiation measuring channel for ambient gamma dose rate. Meteorological measurement channels for air temperature and humidity, wind direction and wind speed, and precipitation. Data processing and storage unit. The system is capable of unattended operation and data acquisition even under adverse environmental conditions. Connection to a central processing platform may be achieved via leased line, dial up over public switched telephone network (PSTN), or radio-frequency transmission. The remote station will continue acquiring and storing data for at least a month, even if the communications link is broken. Multiple stations can be combined to form a network, providing detailed information about radiological and meteorological data at each site. Thus increased ambient radiation levels may be discovered, tracked, and forecasted based on calculations using current and local weather data

  19. Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System (United States)

    Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.


    A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will

  20. Research on Disaster Early Warning and Disaster Relief Integrated Service System Based on Block Data Theory (United States)

    Yang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, C.; Tang, D.


    With the continuous development of social economy, the interaction between mankind and nature has become increasingly evident. Disastrous global catastrophes have occurred from time to time, causing huge losses to people's lives and property. All governments recognize the importance of the establishment of disaster early warning and release mechanisms, and it is also an urgent issue to improve the comprehensive service level of emergency response and disaster relief. However, disaster early warning and emergency relief information is usually generated by different departments, and the diverse data sources, difficult integration, and limited release speed have always been difficult issues to be solved. Block data is the aggregation of various distributed (point data) and segmentation (data) big data on a specific platform and make them happen continuous polymerization effect, block data theory is a good solution to cross-sectoral, cross-platform Disaster information data sharing and integration problems. This paper attempts to discuss the integrated service mechanism of disaster information aggregation and disaster relief based on block data theory and introduces a location-based integrated service system for disaster early warning and disaster relief.

  1. Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models (United States)

    Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab


    Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53

  2. Evaluation of a radar-based proximity warning system for off-highway dump trucks. (United States)

    Ruff, Todd


    A radar-based proximity warning system was evaluated by researchers at the Spokane Research Laboratory of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health to determine if the system would be effective in detecting objects in the blind spots of an off-highway dump truck. An average of five fatalities occur each year in surface mines as a result of an equipment operator not being aware of a smaller vehicle, person or change in terrain near the equipment. Sensor technology that can detect such obstacles and that also is designed for surface mining applications is rare. Researchers worked closely with the radar system manufacturer to test and modify the system on large, off-highway dump trucks at a surface mine over a period of 2 years. The final system was thoroughly evaluated by recording video images from a camera on the rear of the truck and by recording all alarms from the rear-mounted radar. Data show that the system reliably detected small vehicles, berms, people and other equipment. However, alarms from objects that posed no immediate danger were common, supporting the assertion that sensor-based systems for proximity warning should be used in combination with other devices, such as cameras, that would allow the operator to check the source of any alarm.

  3. Development of SNS Stream Analysis Based on Forest Disaster Warning Information Service System (United States)

    Oh, J.; KIM, D.; Kang, M.; Woo, C.; Kim, D.; Seo, J.; Lee, C.; Yoon, H.; Heon, S.


    Forest disasters, such as landslides and wildfires, cause huge economic losses and casualties, and the cost of recovery is increasing every year. While forest disaster mitigation technologies have been focused on the development of prevention and response technologies, they are now required to evolve into evacuation and border evacuation, and to develop technologies fused with ICT. In this study, we analyze the SNS (Social Network Service) stream and implement a system to detect the message that the forest disaster occurred or the forest disaster, and search the keyword related to the forest disaster in advance in real time. It is possible to detect more accurate forest disaster messages by repeatedly learning the retrieved results using machine learning techniques. To do this, we designed and implemented a system based on Hadoop and Spark, a distributed parallel processing platform, to handle Twitter stream messages that open SNS. In order to develop the technology to notify the information of forest disaster risk, a linkage of technology such as CBS (Cell Broadcasting System) based on mobile communication, internet-based civil defense siren, SNS and the legal and institutional issues for applying these technologies are examined. And the protocol of the forest disaster warning information service system that can deliver the SNS analysis result was developed. As a result, it was possible to grasp real-time forest disaster situation by real-time big data analysis of SNS that occurred during forest disasters. In addition, we confirmed that it is possible to rapidly propagate alarm or warning according to the disaster situation by using the function of the forest disaster warning information notification service. However, the limitation of system application due to the restriction of opening and sharing of SNS data currently in service and the disclosure of personal information remains a problem to be solved in the future. Keyword : SNS stream, Big data, Machine

  4. A test-based method for the assessment of pre-crash warning and braking systems. (United States)

    Bálint, András; Fagerlind, Helen; Kullgren, Anders


    In this paper, a test-based assessment method for pre-crash warning and braking systems is presented where the effectiveness of a system is measured by its ability to reduce the number of injuries of a given type or severity in car-to-car rear-end collisions. Injuries with whiplash symptoms lasting longer than 1 month and MAIS2+ injuries in both vehicles involved in the crash are considered in the assessment. The injury reduction resulting from the impact speed reduction due to a pre-crash system is estimated using a method which has its roots in the dose-response model. Human-machine interaction is also taken into account in the assessment. The results reflect the self-protection as well as the partner-protection performance of a pre-crash system in the striking vehicle in rear-end collisions and enable a comparison between two or more systems. It is also shown how the method may be used to assess the importance of warning as part of a pre-crash system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk-Based Evaluation of Flood Warning and Preparedness Systems. Volume 2 - Technical

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Haimes, Yacov Y


    ... for both structural and nonstructural measures. The unifing theme of these results is that the design and evaluation of structural and nonstructural measures for flood mitigation, including flood warning and preparedness systems, is an integrative...

  6. A Method to Increase Drivers' Trust in Collision Warning Systems Based on Reliability Information of Sensor (United States)

    Tsutsumi, Shigeyoshi; Wada, Takahiro; Akita, Tokihiko; Doi, Shun'ichi

    Driver's workload tends to be increased during driving under complicated traffic environments like a lane change. In such cases, rear collision warning is effective for reduction of cognitive workload. On the other hand, it is pointed out that false alarm or missing alarm caused by sensor errors leads to decrease of driver' s trust in the warning system and it can result in low efficiency of the system. Suppose that reliability information of the sensor is provided in real-time. In this paper, we propose a new warning method to increase driver' s trust in the system even with low sensor reliability utilizing the sensor reliability information. The effectiveness of the warning methods is shown by driving simulator experiments.

  7. Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Intrieri


    Full Text Available A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System: An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC, where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

  8. Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application (United States)

    Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale


    A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

  9. Development and validation of a weather-based warning system to advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot on turfgrass (United States)

    Smith, D. L.; Kerns, J. P.; Walker, N. R.; Payne, A. F.; Horvath, B.; Inguagiato, J. C.; Kaminski, J. E.; Tomaso-Peterson, M.


    Dollar spot is one of the most common diseases of golf course turfgrass and numerous fungicide applications are often required to provide adequate control. Weather-based disease warning systems have been developed to more accurately time fungicide applications; however, they tend to be ineffective and are not currently in widespread use. The primary objective of this research was to develop a new weather-based disease warning system to more accurately advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot activity across a broad geographic and climactic range. The new dollar spot warning system was developed from data collected at field sites in Madison, WI and Stillwater, OK in 2008 and warning system validation sites were established in Madison, WI, Stillwater, OK, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Starkville, MS, and Storrs, CT between 2011 and 2016. A meta-analysis of all site-years was conducted and the most effective warning system for dollar spot development consisted of a five-day moving average of relative humidity and average daily temperature. Using this model the highest effective probability that provided dollar spot control similar to that of a calendar-based program across the numerous sites and years was 20%. Additional analysis found that the 20% spray threshold provided comparable control to the calendar-based program while reducing fungicide usage by up to 30%, though further refinement may be needed as practitioners implement this warning system in a range of environments not tested here. The weather-based dollar spot warning system presented here will likely become an important tool for implementing precision disease management strategies for future turfgrass managers, especially as financial and regulatory pressures increase the need to reduce pesticide usage on golf course turfgrass. PMID:29522560

  10. A web based on-line radiation early warning system for emergency preparedness and response centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhujbal, Vaibhav; Saindane, Shashank S.; Narasaiah, M.V.R.; Murali, S.


    The topography of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay site, where all major components of nuclear fuel cycle activities are located is very complex in nature. The assessment of the radiological impact, if any, due to atmospheric releases from these facilities within BARC site is being carried out by using a Local Area Network (LAN) based Radiation Early Warning System and meteorological parameters. The upgraded system is aimed at providing data during normal operation of the various facilities at site and for providing early warning to decision makers in case of any onset of an emergency. It is carried out by acquiring both on-line and off-line data on releases from the plants, the environmental radiation dose rate at selected locations and other related parameters. The monitors placed at these selected locations including strategic point around the BARC site can also help in detecting any attempt of unauthorized trafficking of the radioactive sources. This paper explains different aspects of the system operating at BARC

  11. Communication architecture of an early warning system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Angermann


    Full Text Available This article discusses aspects of communication architecture for early warning systems (EWS in general and gives details of the specific communication architecture of an early warning system against tsunamis. While its sensors are the "eyes and ears" of a warning system and enable the system to sense physical effects, its communication links and terminals are its "nerves and mouth" which transport measurements and estimates within the system and eventually warnings towards the affected population. Designing the communication architecture of an EWS against tsunamis is particularly challenging. Its sensors are typically very heterogeneous and spread several thousand kilometers apart. They are often located in remote areas and belong to different organizations. Similarly, the geographic spread of the potentially affected population is wide. Moreover, a failure to deliver a warning has fatal consequences. Yet, the communication infrastructure is likely to be affected by the disaster itself. Based on an analysis of the criticality, vulnerability and availability of communication means, we describe the design and implementation of a communication system that employs both terrestrial and satellite communication links. We believe that many of the issues we encountered during our work in the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009 on the design and implementation communication architecture are also relevant for other types of warning systems. With this article, we intend to share our insights and lessons learned.

  12. A flash flood early warning system based on rainfall thresholds and daily soil moisture indexes (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe


    Main focus of the paper is to present a flash flood early warning system, developed for Civil Protection Agency for the Sicily Region, for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes. As matter of fact, flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. In this context, some kind of hydrological precursors can be considered to improve the effectiveness of the emergency actions (i.e. early flood warning). Now, it is well known how soil moisture is an important factor in flood formation, because the runoff generation is strongly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture conditions of the catchment. The basic idea of the work here presented is to use soil moisture indexes derived in a continuous form to define a first alert phase in a flash flood forecasting chain and then define a unique rainfall threshold for a given day for the subsequent alarm phases activation, derived as a function of the soil moisture conditions at the beginning of the day. Daily soil moisture indexes, representative of the moisture condition of the catchment, were derived by using a parsimonious and simply to use approach based on the IHACRES model application in a modified form developed by the authors. It is a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method and on the unit hydrograph approach that requires only rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data. It consists of two modules. In the first a non linear loss model, based on the SCS-CN method, was used to transform total rainfall into effective rainfall. In the second, a linear convolution of effective rainfall was performed using a total unit hydrograph with a configuration of

  13. A WebGIS-Based Information System for Monitoring and Warning of Geological Disasters for Lanzhou City, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Miao


    Full Text Available Monitoring and warning of geological disasters accurately and in a timely fashion would dramatically mitigate casualties and economic losses. This paper takes Lanzhou city as an example and designs a Web-based system, namely the information system for geological disaster monitoring and warning (ISGDMW. Presented are its framework, key developing technologies, database, and working flow. The information system adopts a Browser/Server (B/S structure and has three-tier architecture, combining in-situ monitoring instruments, the wireless sensor network, WebGIS techniques and the grey system theory. The framework of the ISGDMW can be divided into three categories: (1 in-situ monitoring system, it aims to monitor geological disaster sites and get state information of geological disaster sites; (2 database, manage in-situ monitoring data, antecedent field investigating data and basic data; (3 analyzing and warning system, analyze in-situ monitoring data, understand the deformation trend of the potential geological disaster, and release disaster warning information to the public. The ISGDMW allow the processes of geological disaster monitoring, in-situ monitoring data analysis, geological disaster warning to be implemented in an efficient and quick way, and can provide scientific suggestions to commanders for quick response to the possibility of geological disaster.

  14. Landslide and Flood Warning System Prototypes based on Wireless Sensor Networks (United States)

    Hloupis, George; Stavrakas, Ilias; Triantis, Dimos


    Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are one of the emerging areas that received great attention during the last few years. This is mainly due to the fact that WSNs have provided scientists with the capability of developing real-time monitoring systems equipped with sensors based on Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS). WSNs have great potential for many applications in environmental monitoring since the sensor nodes that comprised from can host several MEMS sensors (such as temperature, humidity, inertial, pressure, strain-gauge) and transducers (such as position, velocity, acceleration, vibration). The resulting devices are small and inexpensive but with limited memory and computing resources. Each sensor node contains a sensing module which along with an RF transceiver. The communication is broadcast-based since the network topology can change rapidly due to node failures [1]. Sensor nodes can transmit their measurements to central servers through gateway nodes without any processing or they make preliminary calculations locally in order to produce results that will be sent to central servers [2]. Based on the above characteristics, two prototypes using WSNs are presented in this paper: A Landslide detection system and a Flood warning system. Both systems sent their data to central processing server where the core of processing routines exists. Transmission is made using Zigbee and IEEE 802.11b protocol but is capable to use VSAT communication also. Landslide detection system uses structured network topology. Each measuring node comprises of a columnar module that is half buried to the area under investigation. Each sensing module contains a geophone, an inclinometer and a set of strain gauges. Data transmitted to central processing server where possible landslide evolution is monitored. Flood detection system uses unstructured network topology since the failure rate of sensor nodes is expected higher. Each sensing module contains a custom water level sensor

  15. Study on integrated approach of Nuclear Accident Hazard Predicting, Warning, and Optimized Controlling System based on GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Lijuan; Huang Shunxiang; Wang Xinming


    The issue of nuclear safety becomes the attention focus of international society after the nuclear accident happened in Fukushima. Aiming at the requirements of the prevention and controlling of Nuclear Accident establishment of Nuclear Accident Hazard Predicting, Warning and optimized Controlling System (NAPWS) is a imperative project that our country and army are desiderating, which includes multiple fields of subject as nuclear physics, atmospheric science, security science, computer science and geographical information technology, etc. Multiplatform, multi-system and multi-mode are integrated effectively based on GIS, accordingly the Predicting, Warning, and Optimized Controlling technology System of Nuclear Accident Hazard is established. (authors)

  16. An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm (United States)

    Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.


    Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

  17. Setting up a French national flash flood warning system for ungauged catchments based on the AIGA method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javelle Pierre


    Full Text Available Occurring at small temporal and spatial scales, flash floods (FF can cause severe economic damages and human losses. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French Ministry in charge of Ecology has decided to set up a national FF warning system over the French territory. This automated system will be run by the SCHAPI, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting, providing warnings for fast-responding ungauged catchments (area ranging from ~10 to ~1000 km2. It will therefore be complementary to the SCHAPI’s national “vigilance” system which concerns only gauged catchments. The FF warning system to be implemented in 2017 will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014. This method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project ( It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km2 resolution to reference flood quantiles of different (e.g., 2-, 10- and 50-year return periods. Therefore the system characterizes in real time the severity of ongoing events by the range of the return period estimated by AIGA at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France and takes into account the baseflow and the initial soil humidity conditions to better estimate the basin response to rainfall inputs. To meet the requirements of the future FF warning system, the AIGA method has been extended to the whole French territory (except Corsica and overseas French territories. The calibration, regionalization and validation procedures of the hydrologic model were carried out using data for ~700 hydrometric stations from the 2002-2015 period. Performance of the warning system was evaluated with various contingency criteria (e.g., probability of detection and success rate. Furthermore, specific

  18. Earthquake Early Warning Systems


    Pei-Yang Lin


    Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

  19. Research on fatigue driving pre-warning system based on multi-information fusion (United States)

    Zhao, Xuyang; Ye, Wenwu


    With the development of science and technology, transportation network has grown faster. But at the same time, the quantity of traffic accidents due to fatigue driving grows faster as well. In the meantime, fatigue driving has been one of the main causes of traffic accidents. Therefore, it is indispensable for us to study the detection of fatigue driving to help to driving safety. There are numerous approaches in discrimination method. Each type of method has its reasonable theoretical basis, but the disadvantages of traditional fatigue driving detection methods have been more and more obvious since we study the traditional physiology and psychological features of fatigue drivers. So we set up a new system based on multi-information fusion and pattern recognition theory. In the paper, the fatigue driving pre-warning system discriminates fatigue by analyzing the characteristic parameters, the parameters derived from the steering wheel angle, the driver's power of gripping and the heart rate. And the data analysis system is established based on fuzzy C-means clustering theory. Finally, KNN classifier is used to establish the relation between feature indexes and fatigue degree. It is verified that the system has the better accuracy, agility and robustness according to our confirmatory experiment.

  20. Computer Vision Based Smart Lane Departure Warning System for Vehicle Dynamics Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambarish G. Mohapatra


    Full Text Available Collision Avoidance System solves many problems caused by traffic congestion worldwide and a synergy of new information technologies for simulation, real-time control and communications networks. The above system is characterized as an intelligent vehicle system. Traffic congestion has been increasing world-wide as a result of increased motorization, urbanization, population growth and changes in population density. Congestion reduces utilization of the transportation infrastructure and increases travel time, air pollution, fuel consumption and most importantly traffic accidents. The main objective of this work is to develop a machine vision system for lane departure detection and warning to measure the lane related parameters such as heading angle, lateral deviation, yaw rate and sideslip angle from the road scene image using standard image processing technique that can be used for automation of steering a motor vehicle. The exact position of the steering wheel can be monitored using a steering wheel sensor. This core part of this work is based on Hough transformation based edge detection technique for the detection of lane departure parameters. The prototype designed for this work has been tested in a running vehicle for the monitoring of real-time lane related parameters.

  1. Web3DGIS-Based System for Reservoir Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning


    Huang Huang; Jianhua Ni; Yu Zhang; Tianlu Qian; Dingtao Shen; Jiechen Wang


    Landslides are the most frequent type of natural disaster, and they bring about large-scale damage and are a threat to human lives and infrastructure; therefore, the ability to conduct real-time monitoring and early warning is important. In this study, a Web3DGIS (Web3D geographic information systems) system for monitoring and forecasting landslides was developed using the Danjiangkou Reservoir area as a case study. The development of this technique involved system construction, functional de...

  2. Design of flood early warning system with wifi network based on smartphone (United States)

    Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad


    Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.

  3. Early Warning System of Flood Disaster Based on Ultrasonic Sensors and Wireless Technology (United States)

    Indrasari, W.; Iswanto, B. H.; Andayani, M.


    A flood disaster provides considerable losses to the people who live around the river. To mitigate losses of material due to flood disaster required an early warning system of flood disaster. For that reason, it necessary to design a system that provide alert to the people prior the flood disaster. And this paper describes development of a device for early detection system of flood disasters. This device consists of two ultrasonic sensors as a water level detector, and a water flow sensor as a water flow velocity sensor. The wireless technology and GSM is used as an information medium. The system is designed based on water level conditions in the Katulampa Dam, Bogor. Characterization of water level detector showed that the device effectively works in a range of water level of 14-250 cm, with a maximum relative error of 4.3%. Meanwhile the wireless works properly as far as 75 m, and the SMS transmission time is 8.20 second.

  4. An Accurate Gaussian Process-Based Early Warning System for Dengue Fever


    Albinati, Julio; Meira Jr, Wagner; Pappa, Gisele Lobo


    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease present in all Brazilian territory. Brazilian government, however, lacks an accurate early warning system to quickly predict future dengue outbreaks. Such system would help health authorities to plan their actions and to reduce the impact of the disease in the country. However, most attempts to model dengue fever use parametric models which enforce a specific expected behaviour and fail to capture the inherent complexity of dengue dynamics. Therefore, ...

  5. Proposal of secure camera-based radiation warning system for nuclear detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchiya, Ken'ichi; Kurosawa, Kenji; Akiba, Norimitsu; Kakuda, Hidetoshi; Imoto, Daisuke; Hirabayashi, Manato; Kuroki, Kenro


    Counter-terrorisms against radiological and nuclear threat are significant issues toward Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games. In terms of cost benefit, it is not easy to build a warning system for nuclear detection to prevent a Dirty Bomb attack (dispersion of radioactive materials using a conventional explosive) or a Silent Source attack (hidden radioactive materials) from occurring. We propose a nuclear detection system using the installed secure cameras. We describe a method to estimate radiation dose from noise pattern in CCD images caused by radiation. Some dosimeters under neutron and gamma-ray irradiations (0.1mSv-100mSv) were taken in CCD video camera. We confirmed amount of noise in CCD images increased in radiation exposure. The radiation detection using CMOS in secure cameras or cell phones has been implemented. However, in this presentation, we propose a warning system including neutron detection to search shielded nuclear materials or radiation exposure devices using criticality. (author)

  6. Structure health assessment and warning system (SHAWS) (United States)

    Bock, Daniel M.; Kim, Keehoon; Mapar, Jalal


    We are developing a Structure Health Assessment and Warning System (SHAWS) based on building displacement measurements and wireless communication. SHAWS will measure and predict the stability/instability of a building, determine whether it is safe for emergency responders to enter during an emergency, and provide individual warnings on the condition of the structure. SHAWS incorporates remote sensing nodes (RSNs) installed on the exterior frame of a building. Each RSN includes a temperature sensor, a three-axis accelerometer making static-acceleration measurements, and a ZigBee wireless system (IEEE 802.15.4). The RSNs will be deployed remotely using an air cannon delivery system, with each RSN having an innovative adhesive structure for fast (<10 min) and strong installation under emergency conditions. Once the building has moved past a threshold (~0.25 in./building story), a warning will be issued to emergency responders. In addition to the RSNs, SHAWS will include a base station located on an emergency responder's primary vehicle, a PDA for mobile data display to guide responders, and individual warning modules that can be worn by each responder. The individual warning modules will include visual and audio indicators with a ZigBee receiver to provide the proper degree of warning to each responder.

  7. Excessive Heat Events and National Security: Building Resilience based on Early Warning Systems (United States)

    Vintzileos, A.


    Excessive heat events (EHE) affect security of Nations in multiple direct and indirect ways. EHE are the top cause for morbidity/mortality associated to any atmospheric extremes. Higher energy consumption used for cooling can lead to black-outs and social disorder. EHE affect the food supply chain reducing crop yield and increasing the probability of food contamination during delivery and storage. Distribution of goods during EHE can be severely disrupted due to mechanical failure of transportation equipment. EHE during athletic events e.g., marathons, may result to a high number of casualties. Finally, EHE may also affect military planning by e.g. reducing hours of exercise and by altering combat gear. Early warning systems for EHE allow for building resilience. In this paper we first define EHE as at least two consecutive heat days; a heat day is defined as a day with a maximum heat index with probability of occurrence that exceeds a certain threshold. We then use retrospective forecasts performed with a multitude of operational models and show that it is feasible to forecast EHE at forecast lead of week-2 and week-3 over the contiguous United States. We finally introduce an improved definition of EHE based on an intensity index and investigate forecast skill of the predictive system in the tropics and subtropics.

  8. Developing the remote sensing-based early warning system for monitoring TSS concentrations in Lake Mead. (United States)

    Imen, Sanaz; Chang, Ni-Bin; Yang, Y Jeffrey


    Adjustment of the water treatment process to changes in water quality is a focus area for engineers and managers of water treatment plants. The desired and preferred capability depends on timely and quantitative knowledge of water quality monitoring in terms of total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations. This paper presents the development of a suite of nowcasting and forecasting methods by using high-resolution remote-sensing-based monitoring techniques on a daily basis. First, the integrated data fusion and mining (IDFM) technique was applied to develop a near real-time monitoring system for daily nowcasting of the TSS concentrations. Then a nonlinear autoregressive neural network with external input (NARXNET) model was selected and applied for forecasting analysis of the changes in TSS concentrations over time on a rolling basis onward using the IDFM technique. The implementation of such an integrated forecasting and nowcasting approach was assessed by a case study at Lake Mead hosting the water intake for Las Vegas, Nevada, in the water-stressed western U.S. Long-term monthly averaged results showed no simultaneous impact from forest fire events on accelerating the rise of TSS concentration. However, the results showed a probable impact of a decade of drought on increasing TSS concentration in the Colorado River Arm and Overton Arm. Results of the forecasting model highlight the reservoir water level as a significant parameter in predicting TSS in Lake Mead. In addition, the R-squared value of 0.98 and the root mean square error of 0.5 between the observed and predicted TSS values demonstrates the reliability and application potential of this remote sensing-based early warning system in terms of TSS projections at a drinking water intake. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Towards a Predictive Analytics-Based Intelligent Malaria Outbreak Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babagana Modu


    Full Text Available Malaria, as one of the most serious infectious diseases causing public health problems in the world, affects about two-thirds of the world population, with estimated resultant deaths close to a million annually. The effects of this disease are much more profound in third world countries, which have very limited medical resources. When an intense outbreak occurs, most of these countries cannot cope with the high number of patients due to the lack of medicine, equipment and hospital facilities. The prevention or reduction of the risk factor of this disease is very challenging, especially in third world countries, due to poverty and economic insatiability. Technology can offer alternative solutions by providing early detection mechanisms that help to control the spread of the disease and allow the management of treatment facilities in advance to ensure a more timely health service, which can save thousands of lives. In this study, we have deployed an intelligent malaria outbreak early warning system, which is a mobile application that predicts malaria outbreak based on climatic factors using machine learning algorithms. The system will help hospitals, healthcare providers, and health organizations take precautions in time and utilize their resources in case of emergency. To our best knowledge, the system developed in this paper is the first publicly available application. Since confounding effects of climatic factors have a greater influence on the incidence of malaria, we have also conducted extensive research on exploring a new ecosystem model for the assessment of hidden ecological factors and identified three confounding factors that significantly influence the malaria incidence. Additionally, we deploy a smart healthcare application; this paper also makes a significant contribution by identifying hidden ecological factors of malaria.

  10. Fuzzy logic inference-based Pavement Friction Management and real-time slippery warning systems: A proof of concept study. (United States)

    Najafi, Shahriar; Flintsch, Gerardo W; Khaleghian, Seyedmeysam


    Minimizing roadway crashes and fatalities is one of the primary objectives of highway engineers, and can be achieved in part through appropriate maintenance practices. Maintaining an appropriate level of friction is a crucial maintenance practice, due to the effect it has on roadway safety. This paper presents a fuzzy logic inference system that predicts the rate of vehicle crashes based on traffic level, speed limit, and surface friction. Mamdani and Sugeno fuzzy controllers were used to develop the model. The application of the proposed fuzzy control system in a real-time slippery road warning system is demonstrated as a proof of concept. The results of this study provide a decision support model for highway agencies to monitor their network's friction and make appropriate judgments to correct deficiencies based on crash risk. Furthermore, this model can be implemented in the connected vehicle environment to warn drivers of potentially slippery locations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. A probabilistic approach of the Flash Flood Early Warning System (FF-EWS) in Catalonia based on radar ensemble generation (United States)

    Velasco, David; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Corral, Carles; Llort, Xavier; Velasco, Enrique


    Early Warning Systems (EWS) are commonly identified as the most efficient tools in order to improve the preparedness and risk management against heavy rains and Flash Floods (FF) with the objective of reducing economical losses and human casualties. In particular, flash floods affecting torrential Mediterranean catchments are a key element to be incorporated within operational EWSs. The characteristic high spatial and temporal variability of the storms requires high-resolution data and methods to monitor/forecast the evolution of rainfall and its hydrological impact in small and medium torrential basins. A first version of an operational FF-EWS has been implemented in Catalonia (NE Spain) under the name of EHIMI system (Integrated Tool for Hydrometeorological Forecasting) with the support of the Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Flash flood warnings are issued based on radar-rainfall estimates. Rainfall estimation is performed on radar observations with high spatial and temporal resolution (1km2 and 10 minutes) in order to adapt the warning scale to the 1-km grid of the EWS. The method is based on comparing observed accumulated rainfall against rainfall thresholds provided by the regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The so-called "aggregated rainfall warning" at every river cell is obtained as the spatially averaged rainfall over its associated upstream draining area. Regarding the time aggregation of rainfall, the critical duration is thought to be an accumulation period similar to the concentration time of each cachtment. The warning is issued once the forecasted rainfall accumulation exceeds the rainfall thresholds mentioned above, which are associated to certain probability of occurrence. Finally, the hazard warning is provided and shown to the decision-maker in terms of exceeded return periods at every river cell covering the whole area of Catalonia. The objective of the present work includes the

  12. The Global Emergency Observation and Warning System (United States)

    Bukley, Angelia P.; Mulqueen, John A.


    Based on an extensive characterization of natural hazards, and an evaluation of their impacts on humanity, a set of functional technical requirements for a global warning and relief system was developed. Since no technological breakthroughs are required to implement a global system capable of performing the functions required to provide sufficient information for prevention, preparedness, warning, and relief from natural disaster effects, a system is proposed which would combine the elements of remote sensing, data processing, information distribution, and communications support on a global scale for disaster mitigation.

  13. An Architecture for Automated Fire Detection Early Warning System Based on Geoprocessing Service Composition (United States)

    Samadzadegan, F.; Saber, M.; Zahmatkesh, H.; Joze Ghazi Khanlou, H.


    Rapidly discovering, sharing, integrating and applying geospatial information are key issues in the domain of emergency response and disaster management. Due to the distributed nature of data and processing resources in disaster management, utilizing a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) to take advantages of workflow of services provides an efficient, flexible and reliable implementations to encounter different hazardous situation. The implementation specification of the Web Processing Service (WPS) has guided geospatial data processing in a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) platform to become a widely accepted solution for processing remotely sensed data on the web. This paper presents an architecture design based on OGC web services for automated workflow for acquisition, processing remotely sensed data, detecting fire and sending notifications to the authorities. A basic architecture and its building blocks for an automated fire detection early warning system are represented using web-based processing of remote sensing imageries utilizing MODIS data. A composition of WPS processes is proposed as a WPS service to extract fire events from MODIS data. Subsequently, the paper highlights the role of WPS as a middleware interface in the domain of geospatial web service technology that can be used to invoke a large variety of geoprocessing operations and chaining of other web services as an engine of composition. The applicability of proposed architecture by a real world fire event detection and notification use case is evaluated. A GeoPortal client with open-source software was developed to manage data, metadata, processes, and authorities. Investigating feasibility and benefits of proposed framework shows that this framework can be used for wide area of geospatial applications specially disaster management and environmental monitoring.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Samadzadegan


    Full Text Available Rapidly discovering, sharing, integrating and applying geospatial information are key issues in the domain of emergency response and disaster management. Due to the distributed nature of data and processing resources in disaster management, utilizing a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA to take advantages of workflow of services provides an efficient, flexible and reliable implementations to encounter different hazardous situation. The implementation specification of the Web Processing Service (WPS has guided geospatial data processing in a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA platform to become a widely accepted solution for processing remotely sensed data on the web. This paper presents an architecture design based on OGC web services for automated workflow for acquisition, processing remotely sensed data, detecting fire and sending notifications to the authorities. A basic architecture and its building blocks for an automated fire detection early warning system are represented using web-based processing of remote sensing imageries utilizing MODIS data. A composition of WPS processes is proposed as a WPS service to extract fire events from MODIS data. Subsequently, the paper highlights the role of WPS as a middleware interface in the domain of geospatial web service technology that can be used to invoke a large variety of geoprocessing operations and chaining of other web services as an engine of composition. The applicability of proposed architecture by a real world fire event detection and notification use case is evaluated. A GeoPortal client with open-source software was developed to manage data, metadata, processes, and authorities. Investigating feasibility and benefits of proposed framework shows that this framework can be used for wide area of geospatial applications specially disaster management and environmental monitoring.

  15. Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time-variable rainfall thresholds (United States)

    Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.


    We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region

  16. Environment Agency England flood warning systems (United States)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter


    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

  17. An Infrastructure for a Traffic Warning System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønsted, Jeppe; Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael


    The LIWAS Trafc Warning System aims at providingearly warning to vehicles about road conditions, such aswhether the road is slippery. The LIWAS system is currentlybeing developed and consists of two main parts:sensors for determining the state of the road and a communicationinfrastructure...... supporting inter-vehicle communication.This paper presents our results on requirementsidentication, design, and prototyping of the infrastructure.The infrastructure combines communication via mobilephones with communication based on the principles ofad-hoc networking, and it supports units in being...... updatedduring operation. The presented prototypes and associatedexperimental results demonstrate the main functionalitiesof the communication infrastructure, and have led to theinitial deployment of LIWAS units....

  18. A Case Study of Array-based Early Warning System for Tsunami Offshore Ventura, California (United States)

    Xie, Y.; Meng, L.


    Extreme scenarios of M 7.5+ earthquakes on the Red Mountain and Pitas Point faults can potentially generate significant local tsunamis in southern California. The maximum water elevation could be as large as 10 m in the nearshore region of Oxnard and Santa Barbara. Recent development in seismic array processing enables rapid tsunami prediction and early warning based on the back-projection approach (BP). The idea is to estimate the rupture size by back-tracing the seismic body waves recorded by stations at local and regional distances. A simplified source model of uniform slip is constructed and used as an input for tsunami simulations that predict the tsunami wave height and arrival time. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in southern California by implementing it in a simulated real-time environment and applying to a hypothetical M 7.7 Dip-slip earthquake scenario on the Pitas Point fault. Synthetic seismograms are produced using the SCEC broadband platform based on the 3D SoCal community velocity model. We use S-wave instead of P-wave to avoid S-minus-P travel times shorter than rupture duration. Two clusters of strong-motion stations near Bakersfield and Palmdale are selected to determine the back-azimuth of the strongest high-frequency radiations (0.5-1 Hz). The back-azimuths of the two clusters are then intersected to locate the source positions. The rupture area is then approximated by enclosing these BP radiators with an ellipse or a polygon. Our preliminary results show that the extent of 1294 square kilometers rupture area and magnitude of 7.6 obtained by this approach is reasonably close to the 1849 square kilometers and 7.7 of the input model. The average slip of 7.3 m is then estimated according to the scaling relation between slip and rupture area, which is close to the actual average dislocation amount, 8.3 m. Finally, a tsunami simulation is conducted to assess the wave height and arrival time. The errors of -3 to +9 s in arrival time

  19. Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi, K.


    The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the

  20. A warning system based on the RFID technology for running-out of injection fluid. (United States)

    Huang, Chi-Fang; Lin, Jen-Hung


    For providing an automatic warning system of running-out of injection fluid, RFID technology is applied in this work to propose an infrastructure with low cost to help nurses and patient's company. Specially, a RFID tag is designed and attached on a bag of intravenous drip to demonstrate the benefits in the present system. The main idea of this system is that, tag is disabled when the bag is not empty because of the EM loading due to the liquid contained. The bag can be any kind in the current market and be without any electronic attachment or modification. LAN (Local Area Network) is also applied as a part of this infrastructure for data transmission.

  1. Web3DGIS-Based System for Reservoir Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Huang


    Full Text Available Landslides are the most frequent type of natural disaster, and they bring about large-scale damage and are a threat to human lives and infrastructure; therefore, the ability to conduct real-time monitoring and early warning is important. In this study, a Web3DGIS (Web3D geographic information systems system for monitoring and forecasting landslides was developed using the Danjiangkou Reservoir area as a case study. The development of this technique involved system construction, functional design, organizing and managing multi-source spatial data, and implementing a forecasting plan and landslide-forecasting model. By integrating sensor technologies, spatial information technologies, 3D visualization technologies, and a landslide-forecasting model, the results of this study provide a tool for real-time monitoring at potential landslide sites. When relevant data from these sites reach threshold values, the model automatically initiates forecasting procedures, and sends information to disaster prevention sectors for emergency management.

  2. Warning: digital systems ahead

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albrigo, T.


    Digital systems will continue to enhance operation and safety in the nuclear industry. However, they are complex and operators have found it difficult to demonstrate the levels of reliability needed to justify their use. This article describes just some of the varied experiences collected by Arizona Public Service and lessons learned which show clearly why caution must be used whenever and wherever these are introduced. (author)

  3. Driving-Simulator-Based Test on the Effectiveness of Auditory Red-Light Running Vehicle Warning System Based on Time-To-Collision Sensor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuedong Yan


    Full Text Available The collision avoidance warning system is an emerging technology designed to assist drivers in avoiding red-light running (RLR collisions at intersections. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of auditory warning information on collision avoidance behaviors in the RLR pre-crash scenarios and further to examine the casual relationships among the relevant factors. A driving-simulator-based experiment was designed and conducted with 50 participants. The data from the experiments were analyzed by approaches of ANOVA and structural equation modeling (SEM. The collisions avoidance related variables were measured in terms of brake reaction time (BRT, maximum deceleration and lane deviation in this study. It was found that the collision avoidance warning system can result in smaller collision rates compared to the without-warning condition and lead to shorter reaction times, larger maximum deceleration and less lane deviation. Furthermore, the SEM analysis illustrate that the audio warning information in fact has both direct and indirect effect on occurrence of collisions, and the indirect effect plays a more important role on collision avoidance than the direct effect. Essentially, the auditory warning information can assist drivers in detecting the RLR vehicles in a timely manner, thus providing drivers more adequate time and space to decelerate to avoid collisions with the conflicting vehicles.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Samadzadegan


    Full Text Available Environmental monitoring systems deal with time-sensitive issues which require quick responses in emergency situations. Handling the sensor observations in near real-time and obtaining valuable information is challenging issues in these systems from a technical and scientific point of view. The ever-increasing population growth in urban areas has caused certain problems in developing countries, which has direct or indirect impact on human life. One of applicable solution for controlling and managing air quality by considering real time and update air quality information gathered by spatially distributed sensors in mega cities, using sensor web technology for developing monitoring and early warning systems. Urban air quality monitoring systems using functionalities of geospatial information system as a platform for analysing, processing, and visualization of data in combination with Sensor Web for supporting decision support systems in disaster management and emergency situations. This system uses Sensor Web Enablement (SWE framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC, which offers a standard framework that allows the integration of sensors and sensor data into spatial data infrastructures. SWE framework introduces standards for services to access sensor data and discover events from sensor data streams as well as definition set of standards for the description of sensors and the encoding of measurements. The presented system provides capabilities to collect, transfer, share, process air quality sensor data and disseminate air quality status in real-time. It is possible to overcome interoperability challenges by using standard framework. In a routine scenario, air quality data measured by in-situ sensors are communicated to central station where data is analysed and processed. The extracted air quality status is processed for discovering emergency situations, and if necessary air quality reports are sent to the authorities. This research

  5. An Interoperable Architecture for Air Pollution Early Warning System Based on Sensor Web (United States)

    Samadzadegan, F.; Zahmatkesh, H.; Saber, M.; Ghazi khanlou, H. J.


    Environmental monitoring systems deal with time-sensitive issues which require quick responses in emergency situations. Handling the sensor observations in near real-time and obtaining valuable information is challenging issues in these systems from a technical and scientific point of view. The ever-increasing population growth in urban areas has caused certain problems in developing countries, which has direct or indirect impact on human life. One of applicable solution for controlling and managing air quality by considering real time and update air quality information gathered by spatially distributed sensors in mega cities, using sensor web technology for developing monitoring and early warning systems. Urban air quality monitoring systems using functionalities of geospatial information system as a platform for analysing, processing, and visualization of data in combination with Sensor Web for supporting decision support systems in disaster management and emergency situations. This system uses Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), which offers a standard framework that allows the integration of sensors and sensor data into spatial data infrastructures. SWE framework introduces standards for services to access sensor data and discover events from sensor data streams as well as definition set of standards for the description of sensors and the encoding of measurements. The presented system provides capabilities to collect, transfer, share, process air quality sensor data and disseminate air quality status in real-time. It is possible to overcome interoperability challenges by using standard framework. In a routine scenario, air quality data measured by in-situ sensors are communicated to central station where data is analysed and processed. The extracted air quality status is processed for discovering emergency situations, and if necessary air quality reports are sent to the authorities. This research proposed an

  6. QuakeUp: An advanced tool for a network-based Earthquake Early Warning system (United States)

    Zollo, Aldo; Colombelli, Simona; Caruso, Alessandro; Elia, Luca; Brondi, Piero; Emolo, Antonio; Festa, Gaetano; Martino, Claudio; Picozzi, Matteo


    The currently developed and operational Earthquake Early warning, regional systems ground on the assumption of a point-like earthquake source model and 1-D ground motion prediction equations to estimate the earthquake impact. Here we propose a new network-based method which allows for issuing an alert based upon the real-time mapping of the Potential Damage Zone (PDZ), e.g. the epicentral area where the peak ground velocity is expected to exceed the damaging or strong shaking levels with no assumption about the earthquake rupture extent and spatial variability of ground motion. The platform includes the most advanced techniques for a refined estimation of the main source parameters (earthquake location and magnitude) and for an accurate prediction of the expected ground shaking level. The new software platform (QuakeUp) is under development at the Seismological Laboratory (RISSC-Lab) of the Department of Physics at the University of Naples Federico II, in collaboration with the academic spin-off company RISS s.r.l., recently gemmated by the research group. The system processes the 3-component, real-time ground acceleration and velocity data streams at each station. The signal quality is preliminary assessed by checking the signal-to-noise ratio both in acceleration, velocity and displacement and through dedicated filtering algorithms. For stations providing high quality data, the characteristic P-wave period (τ_c) and the P-wave displacement, velocity and acceleration amplitudes (P_d, Pv and P_a) are jointly measured on a progressively expanded P-wave time window. The evolutionary measurements of the early P-wave amplitude and characteristic period at stations around the source allow to predict the geometry and extent of PDZ, but also of the lower shaking intensity regions at larger epicentral distances. This is done by correlating the measured P-wave amplitude with the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and Instrumental Intensity (I_MM) and by mapping the measured and

  7. Automatic early warning systems for the environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lesjak Martin


    Full Text Available Computerized, continuous monitoring environmental early warning systems are complex networks that merge measurements with the information technology. Accuracy, consistency, reliability and data quality are their most important features. Several effects may disturb their characteristics: hostile environment, unreliable communications, poor quality of equipment nonqualified users or service personnel. According to our experiences, a number of measures should be taken to enhance system performances and to maintain them at the desired level. In the paper, we are presenting an analysis of system requirements, possible disturbances and corrective measures that give the main directives for the design, construction and exploitation of the environmental early warning systems. Procedures which ensure data integrity and quality are mentioned. Finally, the contemporary system approach based on the LAN/WAN network topology with Intranet/Internet software is proposed, together with case descriptions of two already operating systems, based on computer-network principle.

  8. ERT to aid in WSN based early warning system for landslides (United States)

    T, H.


    Amrita University's landslide monitoring and early warning system using Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) consists of heterogeneous sensors like rain gauge, moisture sensor, piezometer, geophone, inclinometer, tilt meter etc. The information from the sensors are accurate and limited to that point. In order to monitor a large area, ERT can be used in conjunction with WSN technology. To accomplish the feasibility of ERT in landslide early warning along with WSN technology, we have conducted experiments in Amrita's landslide laboratory setup. The experiment was aimed to simulate landslide, and monitor the changes happening in the soil using moisture sensor and ERT. Simulating moisture values from resistivity measurements to a greater accuracy can help in landslide monitoring for large areas. For accomplishing the same we have adapted two mathematical approaches, 1) Regression analysis between resistivity measurements and actual moisture values from moisture sensor, and 2) Using Waxman Smith model to simulate moisture values from resistivity measurements. The simulated moisture values from Waxman Smith model is compared with the actual moisture values and the Mean Square Error (MSE) is found to be 46.33. Regression curve is drawn for the resistivity vs simulated moisture values from Waxman model, and it is compared with the regression curve of actual model, which is shown in figure-1. From figure-1, it is clear that there the regression curve from actual moisture values and the regression curve from simulated moisture values, follow the similar pattern and there is a small difference between them. Moisture values can be simulated to a greater accuracy using actual regression equation, but the limitation is that, regression curves will differ for different sites and different soils. Regression equation from actual moisture values can be used, if we have conducted experiment in the laboratory for a particular soil sample, otherwise with the knowledge of soil properties

  9. Community Based Warning and Evacuation System against Debris Flow in the Upper Jeneberang River, Gowa, South Sulawesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutikno Hardjosuwarno


    Full Text Available Gigantic collapse of the Caldera wall of Mt. Bawakaraeng (2,830 m in March 2004 had supplied the sediment volume of 230 million to the most upper stream of Jeneberang River, which flowed down to the lower reach in the form of debris flow which is triggered by rainfall. The purpose of the research is to provide a system which is able to forecast the occurrence of debris flow, to identify the weak points along the river course, to identify the hazard areas and how to inform effectively and efficiently the warning messages to the inhabitants in the dangerous area by using the existing modern equipment combined with the traditional one. The standard rainfall which is used to judge the occurrence of debris flow was established by Yano method. It is based on the historical data of rainfall that trigger and not trigger to the occurrence of debris flow which is widely used in Japan so far. The hazard area was estimated by Two-Dimensional Simulation Model for debris flow, the debris flow arrival time at each point in the river were estimated by dividing their distance from reference point by debris flow velocity, where the check dam no. 7-1 in Manimbahoi was designated as reference point. The existing evacuation routes were checked by field survey, the strength and coverage of sound for kentongan and manual siren were examined using sound pressure level at the location of the existing monitoring post and the effectiveness of warning and evacuation were evaluated by comparing the warning and evacuation time against the debris flow arrival time. It was resulted that debris flow occurrence was triggered by short duration of high rainfall intensity, long duration of low rainfall intensity and the outbreak of natural dam which is formed by land slide or bank collapses. The hazard area of upper Jeneberang River are mostly located on the river terraces where the local inhabitants earn their living through cultivating the river terraces as paddy fields, dry

  10. A Conceptual Flash Flood Early Warning System for Africa, Based on Terrestrial Microwave Links and Flash Flood Guidance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joost C. B. Hoedjes


    Full Text Available A conceptual flash flood early warning system for developing countries is described. The system uses rainfall intensity data from terrestrial microwave communication links and the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite, i.e., two systems that are already in place and operational. Flash flood early warnings are based on a combination of the Flash Flood Guidance method and a hydrological model. The system will be maintained and operated through a public-private partnership, which includes a mobile telephone operator, a national meteorological service and an emergency relief service. The mobile telephone operator acts as both the supplier of raw input data and the disseminator of early warnings. The early warning system could significantly reduce the number of fatalities due to flash floods, improve the efficiency of disaster risk reduction efforts and play an important role in strengthening the resilience to climate change of developing countries in Africa. This paper describes the system that is currently being developed for Kenya.

  11. A Study about the 3S-based Great Ruins Monitoring and Early-warning System (United States)

    Xuefeng, W.; Zhongyuan, H.; Gongli, L.; Li, Z.


    Large-scale urbanization construction and new countryside construction, frequent natural disasters, and natural corrosion pose severe threat to the great ruins. It is not uncommon that the cultural relics are damaged and great ruins are occupied. Now the ruins monitoring mainly adopt general monitoring data processing system which can not effectively exert management, display, excavation analysis and data sharing of the relics monitoring data. Meanwhile those general software systems require layout of large number of devices or apparatuses, but they are applied to small-scope relics monitoring only. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to make use of the stereoscopic cartographic satellite technology to improve and supplement the great ruins monitoring index system and combine GIS and GPS to establish a highly automatic, real-time and intelligent great ruins monitoring and early-warning system in order to realize collection, processing, updating, spatial visualization, analysis, distribution and sharing of the monitoring data, and provide scientific and effective data for the relics protection, scientific planning, reasonable development and sustainable utilization.

  12. Highway-rail intersection GPS-based in-vehicle warning systems - literature review and recommendations. (United States)


    In 2008, there were 2,395 incidents at highway-rail intersections (level crossings) in the United States, resulting in 939 injuries and 287 fatalities. Crossing elimination, grade separation, and the implementation of traditional warning devices are ...

  13. Vehicle infrastructure integration (VII) based road-condition warning system for highway collision prevention. (United States)


    As a major ITS initiative, the Vehicle Infrastructure Integration (VII) program is to revolutionize : transportation by creating an enabling communication infrastructure that will open up a wide range of : safety applications. The road-condition warn...

  14. Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time variable rainfall thresholds (United States)

    Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.


    We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b), makes use of LAMI rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain-gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult and it provides different outputs. Switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a very straightforward view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain-gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the high spatial variability of the physical features, which affects the relationship between rainfall and landslides, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of 332 rain gauges, it allows monitoring each alert zone separately and warnings can be issued independently from an alert zone to another. An important feature of the warning system is the use of thresholds that may vary in time adapting at the conditions of the rainfall path recorded by the rain-gauges. Depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set, the comparison with the threshold may produce different outcomes. Therefore, a recursive algorithm was developed to check and compare with the thresholds all possible starting times, highlighting the worst scenario and showing in the WebGIS interface at what time and how much the rainfall path has exceeded or will exceed the most critical threshold. Besides forecasting and monitoring the hazard scenario

  15. Early Warning System Ghana: how to successfully implement a disaster early warning system in a data scarce region (United States)

    Udo, Job; Jungermann, Nicole


    Ghana is a country frequently struck by natural disasters like floods and droughts. Timely warning or detection of such disasters will mitigate the negative impact on lives and property. However, local data and monitoring systems necessary to provide such a warning are hardly available. The availability and improvement of internet, mobile phones and satellites has provided new possibilities for disaster warning systems in data scarce regions such as Ghana. Our presentation describes the development of an early warning system (EWS) in Ghana completely based on satellite based open data. The EWS provides a flood or drought hazard warning on sub-catchment level and links the warning to a more detailed flood or drought risk map, to enable the disaster coordinator to send warnings or relieve more efficiently to areas that have the highest risk. This is especially relevant because some areas for which the system is implemented are very remote. The system is developed and tested to be robust and operational especially in remote areas. This means that the necessary information is also available under limited internet conditions and not dependent on local computer facilities. In many rural areas in Ghana communities rely on indigenous knowledge when it comes to flood or drought disaster forecasting. The EWS has a feature that allows indigenous knowledge indicators to be taken into account in the warning and makes easy comparison possible with the satellite based warnings.

  16. Non-invasive, home-based electroencephalography hypoglycaemia warning system for personal monitoring using skin surface electrodes: a single-case feasibility study. (United States)

    Clewett, Christopher J; Langley, Phillip; Bateson, Anthony D; Asghar, Aziz; Wilkinson, Antony J


    Hypoglycaemia unawareness is a common condition associated with increased risk of severe hypoglycaemia. The purpose of the authors' study was to develop a simple to use, home-based and non-invasive hypoglycaemia warning system based on electroencephalography (EEG), and to demonstrate its use in a single-case feasibility study. A participant with type 1 diabetes forms a single-person case study where blood sugar levels and EEG were recorded. EEG was recorded using skin surface electrodes placed behind the ear located within the T3 region by the participant in the home. EEG was analysed retrospectively to develop an algorithm which would trigger a warning if EEG changes associated with hypoglycaemia onset were detected. All hypoglycaemia events were detected by the EEG hypoglycaemia warning algorithm. Warnings were triggered with blood glucose concentration levels at or below 4.2 mmol/l in this participant and no warnings were issued when in euglycaemia. The feasibility of a non-invasive EEG-based hypoglycaemia warning system for personal monitoring in the home has been demonstrated in a single case study. The results suggest that further studies are warranted to evaluate the system prospectively in a larger group of participants.

  17. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wächter


    Full Text Available Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT, the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean.

    Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies.

    In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS, a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS have been successfully incorporated.

    In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC, new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP and event-driven architecture (EDA are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  18. Radiation warning system in Slovenia (ROSS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arh, S.


    Recognizing that a radiological accident may have a widespread effect, the Slovenian government has decided to establish an early warning system. The aim of it is to detect any incident (domestic or foreign) involving radioactivity as fast as possible, to initiate appropriate measures, and to give immediate warning to the population

  19. Design of vehicle intelligent anti-collision warning system (United States)

    Xu, Yangyang; Wang, Ying


    This paper mainly designs a low cost, high-accuracy, micro-miniaturization, and digital display and acousto-optic alarm features of the vehicle intelligent anti-collision warning system that based on MCU AT89C51. The vehicle intelligent anti-collision warning system includes forward anti-collision warning system, auto parking systems and reversing anti-collision radar system. It mainly develops on the basis of ultrasonic distance measurement, its performance is reliable, thus the driving safety is greatly improved and the parking security and efficiency enhance enormously.

  20. Research and Application of an Air Quality Early Warning System Based on a Modified Least Squares Support Vector Machine and a Cloud Model (United States)

    Wang, Jianzhou; Niu, Tong; Wang, Rui


    The worsening atmospheric pollution increases the necessity of air quality early warning systems (EWSs). Despite the fact that a massive amount of investigation about EWS in theory and practicality has been conducted by numerous researchers, studies concerning the quantification of uncertain information and comprehensive evaluation are still lacking, which impedes further development in the area. In this paper, firstly a comprehensive warning system is proposed, which consists of two vital indispensable modules, namely effective forecasting and scientific evaluation, respectively. For the forecasting module, a novel hybrid model combining the theory of data preprocessing and numerical optimization is first developed to implement effective forecasting for air pollutant concentration. Especially, in order to further enhance the accuracy and robustness of the warning system, interval forecasting is implemented to quantify the uncertainties generated by forecasts, which can provide significant risk signals by using point forecasting for decision-makers. For the evaluation module, a cloud model, based on probability and fuzzy set theory, is developed to perform comprehensive evaluations of air quality, which can realize the transformation between qualitative concept and quantitative data. To verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the warning system, extensive simulations based on air pollutants data from Dalian in China were effectively implemented, which illustrate that the warning system is not only remarkably high-performance, but also widely applicable. PMID:28257122

  1. Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Marchi


    Full Text Available Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows, their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and nonstructural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche

  2. Caltrans fog detection and warning system. (United States)


    The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) has implemented a fog detection and warning system on Highway 99 near Fresno. The entire central valley region is susceptible to Tule fog, which can reduce visibility tremendously, sometimes to n...

  3. Detection of Deteriorating Patients on Surgical Wards Outside the ICU by an Automated MEWS-Based Early Warning System With Paging Functionality. (United States)

    Heller, Axel R; Mees, Sören T; Lauterwald, Benjamin; Reeps, Christian; Koch, Thea; Weitz, Jürgen


    The establishment of early warning systems in hospitals was strongly recommended in recent guidelines to detect deteriorating patients early and direct them to adequate care. Upon reaching predefined trigger criteria, Medical Emergency Teams (MET) should be notified and directed to these patients. The present study analyses the effect of introducing an automated multiparameter early warning score (MEWS)-based early warning system with paging functionality on 2 wards hosting patients recovering from highly complex surgical interventions. The deployment of the system was accompanied by retrospective data acquisition during 12 months (intervention) using 4 routine databases: Hospital patient data management, anesthesia database, local data of the German Resuscitation Registry, and measurement logs of the deployed system (intervention period only). A retrospective 12-month data review using the same aforementioned databases before the deployment of the system served as control. Control and intervention phases were separated by a 6-month washout period for the installation of the system and for training. Data from 3827 patients could be acquired from 2 surgical wards during the two 12-month periods, 1896 patients in the control and 1931 in the intervention cohorts. Patient characteristics differed between the 2 observation phases. American Society of Anesthesiologists risk classification and duration of surgery as well as German DRG case-weight were significantly higher in the intervention period. However, the rate of cardiac arrests significantly dropped from 5.3 to 2.1 per 1000 admissions in the intervention period (P automated MEWS-based early warning system with paging functionality.

  4. ATTACK WARNING: Costs to Modernize NORAD's Computer System Significantly Understated

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cross, F


    ...) Integrated Tactical Warning and Attack Assessment (ITW/AA) system. These subsystems provide critical strategic surveillance and attack warning and assessment information to United States and Canadian leaders...

  5. The 2014 Karnali River Floods in Western Nepal: Making Community Based Early Warning Systems Work When Data Is Lacking (United States)

    Dugar, S.; MacClune, K.; Venkateswaran, K.; Yadav, S.; Szoenyi, M.


    Implementing Community Based Flood Early Warning System (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal is challenging. Complex topography and geology combined with a sparse network of river and rainfall gauges and little predictive meteorological capacity both nationally and regionally dramatically constrain EWS options. This paper provides a synopsis of the hydrological and meteorological conditions that led to flooding in the Karnali River, West Nepal during mid-August 2014, and analyses the effectiveness of flood EWS in the region. On August 14-15, 2014, a large, slow moving weather system deposited record breaking rainfall in the foothills of the Karnali River catchment. Precipitation depths of 200 to 500 mm were recorded over a 24-hour period, which led to rapid rise of river heights. At the Chisapani river gauge station used for the existing EWS, where the Karnali River exits the Himalaya onto the Indo-Gangetic Plain, water levels rapidly exceeded the 11 meter danger level. Between 3 to 6 am, water levels rose from 11 to 16. 1 meters, well beyond the design height of 15 meters. Analysis suggests that 2014 floods may have been a one-in-1000 year event. Starting with the onset of intense rainfall, the Chisapani gauge reader was in regular communication with downstream stakeholders and communities providing them with timely information regarding rising water level. This provided people just enough time to move to safe places with their livestock and key assets. Though households still lost substantial assets, without the EWS, floodwaters would have caught communities completely unaware and damage would almost certainly have been much worse. In particular, despite the complications associated with access to the Chisapani gauge and failure of critical communication nodes during the floods, EWS was instrumental in saving lives. This study explores both the details of the flood event and performance of the early warning system, and identifies lessons learned to help

  6. GEODATA: Information System Based on Geospatial for Early Warning Tracking and Analysis Agricultural Plant Diseases in Central Java (United States)

    Prasetyo, S. Y. J.; Agus, Y. H.; Dewi, C.; Simanjuntak, B. H.; Hartomo, K. D.


    The Government of Indonesia is currently faced with the problems of food, especially rice. It needs in large numbers that have to import from neighboring countries. Actually, the Indonesian government has the ability to produce rice to meet national needs but is still faced with the problem of pest attack rice annually increasing extent. One of the factors is that geographically Indonesia located on the migration path of world rice insect pests (called BPH or Brown Planthoppers) (Nilaparvata lugens Stal.) It leads endemic status annually. One proposed strategy to be applied is to use an early warning system based on a specific region of the main pest population. The proposed information system called GEODATA. GEODATA is Geospatial Outbreak of Disease Tracking and Analysis. The system works using a library ESSA (Exponential Smoothing - Spatial Autocorrelation) developed in previous studies in Satya Wacana Christian University. GEODATA built to meet the qualifications required surveillance device by BMKG (Indonesian Agency of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics’ Central Java Provinces), BPTPH (Indonesian Agency of Plant Protection and Horticulture) Central Java Provinces, BKP-KP District Boyolali, Central Java, (Indonesian Agency of Food Security and Agriculture Field Supervisor, District Boyolali, Central Java Provinces) and farmer groups. GIS GEODATA meets the needs of surveillance devices that include: (1) mapping of the disease, (2) analysis of the dynamics of the disease, and (3) prediction of attacks / disease outbreaks in a particular region. GIS GEODATA is currently under implementation in the laboratory field observations of plant pest in Central Java province, Indonesia.

  7. Methodology for Developing Hydrological Models Based on an Artificial Neural Network to Establish an Early Warning System in Small Catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Sušanj


    Full Text Available In some situations, there is no possibility of hazard mitigation, especially if the hazard is induced by water. Thus, it is important to prevent consequences via an early warning system (EWS to announce the possible occurrence of a hazard. The aim and objective of this paper are to investigate the possibility of implementing an EWS in a small-scale catchment and to develop a methodology for developing a hydrological prediction model based on an artificial neural network (ANN as an essential part of the EWS. The methodology is implemented in the case study of the Slani Potok catchment, which is historically recognized as a hazard-prone area, by establishing continuous monitoring of meteorological and hydrological parameters to collect data for the training, validation, and evaluation of the prediction capabilities of the ANN model. The model is validated and evaluated by visual and common calculation approaches and a new evaluation for the assessment. This new evaluation is proposed based on the separation of the observed data into classes based on the mean data value and the percentages of classes above or below the mean data value as well as on the performance of the mean absolute error.

  8. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products. (United States)

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily


    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.

  9. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products (United States)

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily


    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

  10. Reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards: Concept and application to debris flow warning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel


    Early Warning Systems (EWS) are increasingly applied to mitigate the risks posed by natural hazards. To compare the effect of EWS with alternative risk reduction measures and to optimize their design and operation, their reliability and effectiveness must be quantified. In the present contribution, a framework approach to the evaluation of threshold-based EWS for natural hazards is presented. The system reliability is classically represented by the Probability of Detection (POD) and Probability of False Alarms (PFA). We demonstrate how the EWS effectiveness, which is a measure of risk reduction, can be formulated as a function of POD and PFA. To model the EWS and compute the reliability, we develop a framework based on Bayesian Networks, which is further extended to a decision graph, facilitating the optimization of the warning system. In a case study, the framework is applied to the assessment of an existing debris flow EWS. The application demonstrates the potential of the framework for identifying the important factors influencing the effectiveness of the EWS and determining optimal warning strategies and system configurations. - Highlights: • Warning systems are increasingly applied measures to reduce natural hazard risks. • Bayesian Networks (BN) are powerful tools to quantify warning system's reliability. • The effectiveness is defined to assess the optimality of warning systems. • By extending BNs to decision graphs, the optimal warning strategy is identified. • Sensors positioning significantly influence the effectiveness of warning systems

  11. An Online Fault Pre-warning System of the Rolling Mill Screw-down Device Based on Virtual Instrument

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Bai


    Full Text Available A traditional off-line screw-down monitoring system performs not well on real-time signal analysis or process, which cannot provide simultaneous fault pre-warning either. A diagnostic monitoring system as well as a remotely accessible graphic user interface is presented in this paper. The main objective of this work is to develop an online and available technique for monitoring the kinetic, hydrodynamic and electrical parameters of the rolling mill screw-down device, and analyze these figures to support online fault pre-warning. A series of transducers are installed in suitable locations to measure parameters decried above including the vibration acceleration of a rolling mill stand, the rolling force of a screw-down device, the stroke of a hydraulic cylinder, the system source pressure, the in-cylinder stress and the output value of an electro-hydraulic servo valve. An industrial personal computer picks up the information transformed by an extra high-speed data acquisition board embedded inside, processes the signals via a software designed by means of Laborary Virtual Instrument Engineering Workbench (LabVIEW and indicates fault conditions through the graphic user interface. Besides, the data of the overall system can be published over the Internet using LabVIEW Web Server capabilities. The results of experiments suggest that the system works well on real-time data acquisition and online fault pre- warning. The statistics saved contributes to the research of vibration performance and malfunction analysis of a rolling mill.

  12. Time-to-impact estimation in passive missile warning systems (United States)

    Şahıngıl, Mehmet Cihan


    A missile warning system can detect the incoming missile threat(s) and automatically cue the other Electronic Attack (EA) systems in the suit, such as Directed Infrared Counter Measure (DIRCM) system and/or Counter Measure Dispensing System (CMDS). Most missile warning systems are currently based on passive sensor technology operating in either Solar Blind Ultraviolet (SBUV) or Midwave Infrared (MWIR) bands on which there is an intensive emission from the exhaust plume of the threatening missile. Although passive missile warning systems have some clear advantages over pulse-Doppler radar (PDR) based active missile warning systems, they show poorer performance in terms of time-to-impact (TTI) estimation which is critical for optimizing the countermeasures and also "passive kill assessment". In this paper, we consider this problem, namely, TTI estimation from passive measurements and present a TTI estimation scheme which can be used in passive missile warning systems. Our problem formulation is based on Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The algorithm uses the area parameter of the threat plume which is derived from the used image frame.

  13. Highlights of satellite-based forest change recognition and tracking using the ForWarn System (United States)

    Steven P. Norman; William W. Hargrove; Joseph P. Spruce; William M. Christie; Sean W. Schroeder


    For a higher resolution version of this file, please use the following link: www.geobabble.orgSatellite-based remote sensing can assist forest managers with their need to recognize disturbances and track recovery. Despite the long...

  14. Early warning monitoring system of modular expansion joints based on dynamic behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peelen, W.H.A.; Vervuurt, A.H.J.M.; Zuada Coelho, B.E.; Leendertz, H.


    One of the existing modular expansion joints of the Martinus Nijhoff Bridge in the Netherlands was monitored with the purpose of extending its service life for on year until replacement in 2011. Based on an analysis of the failure mechanisms of this (type of) joint, strain gauges were used as

  15. Grid-cell-based crop water accounting for the famine early warning system (United States)

    Verdin, James; Klaver, Robert


    Rainfall monitoring is a regular activity of food security analysts for sub-Saharan Africa due to the potentially disastrous impact of drought. Crop water accounting schemes are used to track rainfall timing and amounts relative to phenological requirements, to infer water limitation impacts on yield. Unfortunately, many rain gauge reports are available only after significant delays, and the gauge locations leave large gaps in coverage. As an alternative, a grid-cell-based formulation for the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) was tested for maize in Southern Africa. Grids of input variables were obtained from remote sensing estimates of rainfall, meteorological models, and digital soil maps. The spatial WRSI was computed for the 1996-97 and 1997-98 growing seasons. Maize yields were estimated by regression and compared with a limited number of reports from the field for the 1996-97 season in Zimbabwe. Agreement at a useful level (r = 0·80) was observed. This is comparable to results from traditional analysis with station data. The findings demonstrate the complementary role that remote sensing, modelling, and geospatial analysis can play in an era when field data collection in sub-Saharan Africa is suffering an unfortunate decline. Published in 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Agro-climatology Analysis Tools and Knowledge Base Products for Food Security Applications (United States)

    Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Anthony, M.; Palka, S.; Martinez, J.; Hussain, R.


    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) supports the use of Earth observation data for food security monitoring through its role as an implementing partner of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). The USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center has developed tools designed to aid food security analysts in developing assumptions of agro-climatological outcomes. There are four primary steps to developing agro-climatology assumptions; including: 1) understanding the climatology, 2) evaluating current climate modes, 3) interpretation of forecast information, and 4) incorporation of monitoring data. Analysts routinely forecast outcomes well in advance of the growing season, which relies on knowledge of climatology. A few months prior to the growing season, analysts can assess large-scale climate modes that might influence seasonal outcomes. Within two months of the growing season, analysts can evaluate seasonal forecast information as indicators. Once the growing season begins, monitoring data, based on remote sensing and field information, can characterize the start of season and remain integral monitoring tools throughout the duration of the season. Each subsequent step in the process can lead to modifications of the original climatology assumption. To support such analyses, we have created an agro-climatology analysis tool that characterizes each step in the assumption building process. Satellite-based rainfall and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based products support both the climatology and monitoring steps, sea-surface temperature data and knowledge of the global climate system inform the climate modes, and precipitation forecasts at multiple scales support the interpretation of forecast information. Organizing these data for a user-specified area provides a valuable tool for food security analysts to better formulate agro-climatology assumptions that feed into food security assessments. We have also developed a knowledge

  17. A simplified early-warning system for imminent landslide prediction based on failure index fragility curves developed through numerical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ozturk


    Full Text Available Early-warning systems (EWSs are crucial to reduce the risk of landslide, especially where the structural measures are not fully capable of preventing the devastating impact of such an event. Furthermore, designing and successfully implementing a complete landslide EWS is a highly complex task. The main technical challenges are linked to the definition of heterogeneous material properties (geotechnical and geomechanical parameters as well as a variety of the triggering factors. In addition, real-time data processing creates a significant complexity, since data collection and numerical models for risk assessment are time consuming tasks. Therefore, uncertainties in the physical properties of a landslide together with the data management represent the two crucial deficiencies in an efficient landslide EWS. Within this study the application is explored of the concept of fragility curves to landslides; fragility curves are widely used to simulate systems response to natural hazards, i.e. floods or earthquakes. The application of fragility curves to landslide risk assessment is believed to simplify emergency risk assessment; even though it cannot substitute detailed analysis during peace-time. A simplified risk assessment technique can remove some of the unclear features and decrease data processing time. The method is based on synthetic samples which are used to define the approximate failure thresholds for landslides, taking into account the materials and the piezometric levels. The results are presented in charts. The method presented in this paper, which is called failure index fragility curve (FIFC, allows assessment of the actual real-time risk in a case study that is based on the most appropriate FIFC. The application of an FIFC to a real case is presented as an example. This method to assess the landslide risk is another step towards a more integrated dynamic approach to a potential landslide prevention system. Even if it does not define

  18. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems (United States)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.


    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  19. Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems (United States)

    Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin


    ). TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application: The technical development is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards already applies to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services. This is a first step towards best practices and service lifecycles for Early Warning Centre IT service management, including Service Level Agreements (SLA) and Service Certification. While on a global scale the integration of TEWS progresses towards Systems of Systems (SoS), there is still an absence of accredited and reliable certifications for national TEWS or regional Tsunami Early Warning Systems of Systems (TEWSoS). Concepts for TEWS operations have already been published under the guidance of the IOC, and can now be complemented by the recent research advances concerning SoS architecture. Combined with feedback from the real world, such as the NEAMwave 2012 Tsunami exercise in the Mediterranean, this can serve as a starting point to formulate initial requirements for TEWS and TEWSoS certification: Certification activities will cover the establishment of new TEWS and TEWSoS, and also both maintenance and enhancement of existing TEWS/TEWSoS. While the IOC is expected to take a central role in the development of the certification strategy, it remains to be defined which bodies will actually conduct the certification process. Certification requirements and results are likely to become a valuable information source for various target groups, ranging from national policy decision makers, government agency planners, national and local government preparedness officials, TWC staff members, Disaster Responders, the media and the insurance industry.

  20. Experiences on the development of a Community Based Early Warning System for mountain risks in northern Italy (United States)

    Garcia, Carolina; Sterlacchini, Simone; de Amicis, Mattia; Fontana, Michele; Trozzi, Arianna; Frigerio, Ivan


    In the framework of the European project Mountain Risks (, one of the projects currently developed is a methodology to integrate risk management and evacuation emergency plans, focused on prevention as a key element for disaster risk reduction, applied in the Mountain Community Valtellina of Tirano, an area recurrently affected by several mountain hazards. Taking into account the actual state of disaster risk reduction initiatives in the study area, including the existence of a real time emergency plan based on GIS (Geographical Information Systems), DSS (Decision Support Systems), and ICT (Information & Communication Technology), but knowing the lack involvement of the general community in any of the preparation activities developed until the present and the lack of divulgation of the current emergency plan, it was decided that the methodology that could better adapt to the actual conditions of the study area would be a non structural Community Based Early Warning System (CBEWS). A CBEWS has been recognized by institutions as the UN and the INSDR, as an effective and important strategy for disaster risk reduction. This strategy is broadly used especially in developing countries and has proved its effectiveness in many disasters crisis all over the world. In spite of that, possibly for political and social reasons, there are really few applications of CBEWS in developed countries which has made the elaboration of this research project a particularly difficult process due to the lack of previous references with similar conditions to the one in the study area. Difficulties related to any multidisciplinary work which also involves the general community have been faced during the development of the project such as the differences in language (both the technical jargon of the different disciplines and the native language), time restrictions, the process of learning and adapting to different social structures, the process of contacting several

  1. Russian eruption warning systems for aviation (United States)

    Neal, C.; Girina, O.; Senyukov, S.; Rybin, A.; Osiensky, J.; Izbekov, P.; Ferguson, G.


    More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

  2. Accuracy and Efficiency of Recording Pediatric Early Warning Scores Using an Electronic Physiological Surveillance System Compared With Traditional Paper-Based Documentation. (United States)

    Sefton, Gerri; Lane, Steven; Killen, Roger; Black, Stuart; Lyon, Max; Ampah, Pearl; Sproule, Cathryn; Loren-Gosling, Dominic; Richards, Caitlin; Spinty, Jean; Holloway, Colette; Davies, Coral; Wilson, April; Chean, Chung Shen; Carter, Bernie; Carrol, E D


    Pediatric Early Warning Scores are advocated to assist health professionals to identify early signs of serious illness or deterioration in hospitalized children. Scores are derived from the weighting applied to recorded vital signs and clinical observations reflecting deviation from a predetermined "norm." Higher aggregate scores trigger an escalation in care aimed at preventing critical deterioration. Process errors made while recording these data, including plotting or calculation errors, have the potential to impede the reliability of the score. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a controlled study of documentation using five clinical vignettes. We measured the accuracy of vital sign recording, score calculation, and time taken to complete documentation using a handheld electronic physiological surveillance system, VitalPAC Pediatric, compared with traditional paper-based charts. We explored the user acceptability of both methods using a Web-based survey. Twenty-three staff participated in the controlled study. The electronic physiological surveillance system improved the accuracy of vital sign recording, 98.5% versus 85.6%, P < .02, Pediatric Early Warning Score calculation, 94.6% versus 55.7%, P < .02, and saved time, 68 versus 98 seconds, compared with paper-based documentation, P < .002. Twenty-nine staff completed the Web-based survey. They perceived that the electronic physiological surveillance system offered safety benefits by reducing human error while providing instant visibility of recorded data to the entire clinical team.

  3. Flash floods warning technique based on wireless communication networks data (United States)

    David, Noam; Alpert, Pinhas; Messer, Hagit


    Flash floods can occur throughout or subsequent to rainfall events, particularly in cases where the precipitation is of high-intensity. Unfortunately, each year these floods cause severe property damage and heavy casualties. At present, there are no sufficient real time flash flood warning facilities found to cope with this phenomenon. Here we show the tremendous potential of flash floods advanced warning based on precipitation measurements of commercial microwave links. As was recently shown, wireless communication networks supply high resolution precipitation measurements at ground level while often being situated in flood prone areas, covering large parts of these hazardous regions. We present the flash flood warning potential of the wireless communication system for two different cases when floods occurred at the Judean desert and at the northern Negev in Israel. In both cases, an advanced warning regarding the hazard could have been announced based on this system. • This research was supported by THE ISRAEL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (grant No. 173/08). This work was also supported by a grant from the Yeshaya Horowitz Association, Jerusalem. Additional support was given by the PROCEMA-BMBF project and by the GLOWA-JR BMBF project.

  4. The Development of case based Early Warning and Response System (EWRS for communicable diseases with diarrhea (2008, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sema Sevken


    Full Text Available AIM: Routine surveys do not detect early waterborn and foodborn infections which are mostly observed during the summer. This is a pilot project that is being implemented in Kocaeli, Malatya and Trabzon cities to detect and control diarrhoeal illnesses in the early stages. The aim of the project is to develop an applicable Early Warning System (EWRS that can be implemented throughout the country. METHOD: This research is a partial report of the diarrhoeal illnesses that were indicated in between 01/08/2008 – 01/10/2008. The weekly cases were calculated by moving averages of three week time in the same period of time in 2007. Then the results were converted to daily counts after adding 10% (threshold value of the average of weekly observed counts. The daily expected case counts were collected from public hospitals and public village clinics in the same period of time by using the diagnosis which was defined as ICD10 code in advance. Having analysised the data in SPSS 15.0 programme, descriptive and pearson’s correlative statistics were done. RESULTS: The findings fromKocaeli andr Trabzon were analysed by the pearson’s correlation and there was not a meaningful relationship between getting over the threshold and the precaution components. In Malatya, 206 warnings were recorded. The rate of the incidence was 0.2 – 23.2 per 1000 population in per week. The rate of the invasive E.coli outbreak which was experienced in Battalgazi was 22.1 per 1000 population. With the help of the EWRS, the risk of epidemi was determined 18 days in advance, then retrospectively EARS_X programme has statisticly confirmed the case as an “epidemi”. It was also confirmed that there was an intermediate level, a positive and statistical significant relationship between the weekly measured amount of chlorine residue and the threshold with pearson’s correlation.(r = 0,45; p< 0,001. The correlation between number of bacterial samples and thresholds were also similar

  5. Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs (United States)

    Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington


    Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to

  6. How to select a proper early warning threshold to detect infectious disease outbreaks based on the China infectious disease automated alert and response system (CIDARS). (United States)

    Wang, Ruiping; Jiang, Yonggen; Michael, Engelgau; Zhao, Genming


    China Centre for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC) developed the China Infectious Disease Automated Alert and Response System (CIDARS) in 2005. The CIDARS was used to strengthen infectious disease surveillance and aid in the early warning of outbreak. The CIDARS has been integrated into the routine outbreak monitoring efforts of the CDC at all levels in China. Early warning threshold is crucial for outbreak detection in the CIDARS, but CDCs at all level are currently using thresholds recommended by the China CDC, and these recommended thresholds have recognized limitations. Our study therefore seeks to explore an operational method to select the proper early warning threshold according to the epidemic features of local infectious diseases. The data used in this study were extracted from the web-based Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System (NIDRIS), and data for infectious disease cases were organized by calendar week (1-52) and year (2009-2015) in Excel format; Px was calculated using a percentile-based moving window (moving window [5 week*5 year], x), where x represents one of 12 centiles (0.40, 0.45, 0.50….0.95). Outbreak signals for the 12 Px were calculated using the moving percentile method (MPM) based on data from the CIDARS. When the outbreak signals generated by the 'mean + 2SD' gold standard were in line with a Px generated outbreak signal for each week during the year of 2014, this Px was then defined as the proper threshold for the infectious disease. Finally, the performance of new selected thresholds for each infectious disease was evaluated by simulated outbreak signals based on 2015 data. Six infectious diseases were selected in this study (chickenpox, mumps, hand foot and mouth diseases (HFMD), scarlet fever, influenza and rubella). Proper thresholds for chickenpox (P75), mumps (P80), influenza (P75), rubella (P45), HFMD (P75), and scarlet fever (P80) were identified. The selected proper thresholds for these

  7. Online-data Bases On Natural-hazard Research, Early-warning Systems and Operative Disaster Prevention Programs (United States)

    Hermanns, R. L.; Zentel, K.-O.; Wenzel, F.; Hövel, M.; Hesse, A.

    In order to benefit from synergies and to avoid replication in the field of disaster re- duction programs and related scientific projects it is important to create an overview on the state of art, the fields of activity and their key aspects. Therefore, the German Committee for Disaster Reduction intends to document projects and institution related to natural disaster prevention in three databases. One database is designed to docu- ment scientific programs and projects related to natural hazards. In a first step data acquisition concentrated on projects carried out by German institutions. In a second step projects from all other European countries will be archived. The second database focuses on projects on early-warning systems and has no regional limit. Data mining started in November 2001 and will be finished soon. The third database documents op- erational projects dealing with disaster prevention and concentrates on international projects or internationally funded projects. These databases will be available on the internet end of spring 2002 ( and will be updated continuously. They will allow rapid and concise information on various international projects, pro- vide up-to-date descriptions, and facilitate exchange as all relevant information in- cluding contact addresses are available to the public. The aim of this contribution is to present concepts and the work done so far, to invite participation, and to contact other organizations with similar objectives.

  8. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.


    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  9. Earthquake early warning system using real-time signal processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.


    An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.

  10. Risk Measure and Early-Warning System of China's Stock Market Based on Price-Earnings Ratio and Price-to-Book Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongda Chen


    Full Text Available Based on the actual situation of China's stock market, this paper proposes a method for measuring the stock market's risk and early-warning methods which are based on price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio. The study found that the method of VaR can capture the bigger daily drops in a period, and if the drop is at the periodical top of the index, the probability of a sharp index decline will be very high. It also confirmed that the method is feasible and practical for people to use. In the long run, this method really can send early-warning signals of sharp decline; the warning levels increase as the index rises. The study also found that index will not fall after every warning but will continue going forward because of inertia, particularly during a big trend.

  11. Demonstration of a Novel Synchrophasor-based Situational Awareness System: Wide Area Power System Visualization, On-line Event Replay and Early Warning of Grid Problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosso, A.


    Since the large North Eastern power system blackout on August 14, 2003, U.S. electric utilities have spent lot of effort on preventing power system cascading outages. Two of the main causes of the August 14, 2003 blackout were inadequate situational awareness and inadequate operator training In addition to the enhancements of the infrastructure of the interconnected power systems, more research and development of advanced power system applications are required for improving the wide-area security monitoring, operation and planning in order to prevent large- scale cascading outages of interconnected power systems. It is critically important for improving the wide-area situation awareness of the operators or operational engineers and regional reliability coordinators of large interconnected systems. With the installation of large number of phasor measurement units (PMU) and the related communication infrastructure, it will be possible to improve the operators’ situation awareness and to quickly identify the sequence of events during a large system disturbance for the post-event analysis using the real-time or historical synchrophasor data. The purpose of this project was to develop and demonstrate a novel synchrophasor-based comprehensive situational awareness system for control centers of power transmission systems. The developed system named WASA (Wide Area Situation Awareness) is intended to improve situational awareness at control centers of the power system operators and regional reliability coordinators. It consists of following main software modules: • Wide-area visualizations of real-time frequency, voltage, and phase angle measurements and their contour displays for security monitoring. • Online detection and location of a major event (location, time, size, and type, such as generator or line outage). • Near-real-time event replay (in seconds) after a major event occurs. • Early warning of potential wide-area stability problems. The system has been

  12. An automatic tsunami warning system: TREMORS application in Europe (United States)

    Reymond, D.; Robert, S.; Thomas, Y.; Schindelé, F.


    An integrated system named TREMORS (Tsunami Risk Evaluation through seismic Moment of a Real-time System) has been installed in EVORA station, in Portugal which has been affected by historical tsunamis. The system is based on a three component long period seismic station linked to a compatible IBM_PC with a specific software. The goals of this system are the followings: detect earthquake, locate them, compute their seismic moment, give a seismic warning. The warnings are based on the seismic moment estimation and all the processing are made automatically. The finality of this study is to check the quality of estimation of the main parameters of interest in a goal of tsunami warning: the location which depends of azimuth and distance, and at last the seismic moment, M 0, which controls the earthquake size. The sine qua non condition for obtaining an automatic location is that the 3 main seismic phases P, S, R must be visible. This study gives satisfying results (automatic analysis): ± 5° errors in azimuth and epicentral distance, and a standard deviation of less than a factor 2 for the seismic moment M 0.

  13. 49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus. (United States)


    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION GRADE CROSSING SIGNAL SYSTEM SAFETY AND STATE ACTION PLANS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.211 Security of warning system apparatus...

  14. Landslides affecting critical infrastructures: the use of a GB-InSAR based warning system in Calatabiano (Southern Italy). (United States)

    Nolesini, Teresa; Frodella, William; Bardi, Federica; Intrieri, Emanuele; Carlà, Tommaso; Solari, Lorenzo; Dotta, Giulia; Ferrigno, Federica; Casagli, Nicola


    Landslides represent one of the most frequent geo-hazard, not only causing a serious threat to human lives, but also determining socio-economic losses, countable in billions of Euros and expressed in terms of damage to property, infrastructures and environmental degradation. Recent events show a significant increase in the number of disasters with natural and/or technological causes, which could have potentially serious consequences for Critical Infrastructures (CI). Where these infrastructures tend to fail or to be destroyed, the resulting cascade effect (chain of accidents) could lead to catastrophic damage and affect people, the environment and the economy. In the field of landslide detection, mapping, monitoring and management, the availability of advanced remote sensing technologies, which allow systematic and easily updatable acquisitions of data, may enhance the implementation of near real time monitoring activity and the production of landslide maps, optimizing field work. This work aims at presenting an example of the advantages given by the combined use of advanced remote sensing techniques, such as Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR), Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) and Infrared Thermography (IRT), in order to monitor and map the Calatabiano landslide, located in the Catania Province (Sicily Island, Southern Italy). The landslide occurred on October 24th 2015, after a period of heavy rainfall, causing the rupture of a water pipeline transect of the aqueduct supplying water to the city of Messina. As a consequence of this event a considerable lack in water resources occurred for a large number of the city inhabitants. A provisional by-pass, consisting of three 350 m long pipes passing through the landslide area, was implemented in order to restore the city water supplies during the emergency management phase. In this framework an integrated monitoring network was implemented, in order to assess the residual risk by analyzing

  15. Recommendations to harmonize European early warning dosimetry network systems (United States)

    Dombrowski, H.; Bleher, M.; De Cort, M.; Dabrowski, R.; Neumaier, S.; Stöhlker, U.


    After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, followed by the Fukushima Nuclear power plant accident 25 years later, it became obvious that real-time information is required to quickly gain radiological information. As a consequence, the European countries established early warning network systems with the aim to provide an immediate warning in case of a major radiological emergency, to supply reliable information on area dose rates, contamination levels, radioactivity concentrations in air and finally to assess public exposure. This is relevant for governmental decisions on intervention measures in an emergency situation. Since different methods are used by national environmental monitoring systems to measure area dose rate values and activity concentrations, there are significant differences in the results provided by different countries. Because European and neighboring countries report area dose rate data to a central data base operated on behalf of the European Commission, the comparability of the data is crucial for its meaningful interpretation, especially in the case of a nuclear accident with transboundary implications. Only by harmonizing measuring methods and data evaluation, is the comparability of the dose rate data ensured. This publication concentrates on technical requirements and methods with the goal to effectively harmonize area dose rate monitoring data provided by automatic early warning network systems. The requirements and procedures laid down in this publication are based on studies within the MetroERM project, taking into account realistic technical approaches and tested procedures.

  16. Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques (United States)

    Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.


    Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

  17. A scheme for evaluating a local queue warning system.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botma, H. & Oei, H.-L.


    This article outlines a method of evaluating a 'local queue warning system', in principle intended only to warn drivers of unexpected congestion at known discontinuities of the road geomctry (bottleneck) and give them advisory speed indications. A prerequisite for installing this system is therefore

  18. Monitoring and Warning of Landslides Based On Rainfall (United States)

    Yudhbir, Y.

    Management issues of landslide hazards assume much greater significance in poorest segments of society living in landslide risk prone hilly areas in developing countries. Analysis of the temporal recurrence of landslides shows that disastrous events occur with a frequency higher than the social and economic capacity of these societies to recover from previous events. In the context of landslide hazard management in In- dian Himalayan states this problem assumes much greater significance. Majority of the population lives on hill slopes which experience repeated landsliding activity es- pecially during the summer monsoon rains. Considering the high cost of structural control measures and the lack of necessary spatial database in respect of Quaternary geology, detailed topography and geohydrology etc., there is an acute need to develop a monitoring and warning system which is economical, easy to operate and does not require high technological inputs. Since most of the landslides in these areas are triggered by high incidence of rain, it appears attractive to explore development of a monitoring and warning network based on critical rainfall intensity thresholds. Such an option for management of landslide hazards would also provide useful meteorological data required for assessment of wa- ter resources, soil loss due to erosion, agricultural practices and flood incidence. In this paper, available approaches to the prediction and warning of landslide based on rainfall data will be critically reviewed. Various criteria recommended in litera- ture for threshold rainfall values in rain induced ground movements/failures would be compared and these relationships will be contrasted with the limited data available for the Indian Himalayan landslides. A plan for a network of automatic rain gauges and a suitable warning system will be discussed.

  19. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables (United States)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.


    are usually only suited for rigid processes. We show how improvements can be achieved by using decision tables and rule-based adaptive workflows. Decision tables have been shown to be an intuitive tool that can be used by domain experts to express rule sets that can be interpreted automatically at runtime. Adaptive workflows use a rule-based approach to increase the flexibility of workflows by providing mechanisms to adapt workflows based on context changes, human intervention and availability of services. The combination of workflows, decision tables and rule-based adaption creates a framework that opens up new possibilities for flexible and adaptable workflows, especially, for use in early warning and crisis management systems.

  20. Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools (United States)

    Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.


    In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance

  1. Is More Better? - Night Vision Enhancement System's Pedestrian Warning Modes and Older Drivers. (United States)

    Brown, Timothy; He, Yefei; Roe, Cheryl; Schnell, Thomas


    Pedestrian fatalities as a result of vehicle collisions are much more likely to happen at night than during day time. Poor visibility due to darkness is believed to be one of the causes for the higher vehicle collision rate at night. Existing studies have shown that night vision enhancement systems (NVES) may improve recognition distance, but may increase drivers' workload. The use of automatic warnings (AW) may help minimize workload, improve performance, and increase safety. In this study, we used a driving simulator to examine performance differences of a NVES with six different configurations of warning cues, including: visual, auditory, tactile, auditory and visual, tactile and visual, and no warning. Older drivers between the ages of 65 and 74 participated in the study. An analysis based on the distance to pedestrian threat at the onset of braking response revealed that tactile and auditory warnings performed the best, while visual warnings performed the worst. When tactile or auditory warnings were presented in combination with visual warning, their effectiveness decreased. This result demonstrated that, contrary to general sense regarding warning systems, multi-modal warnings involving visual cues degraded the effectiveness of NVES for older drivers.

  2. Flood forecasting and early warning system for Dungun River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hafiz, I; Sidek, L M; Basri, H; Fukami, K; Hanapi, M N; Livia, L; Nor, M D


    Floods can bring such disasters to the affected dweller due to loss of properties, crops and even deaths. The damages to properties and crops by the severe flooding are occurred due to the increase in the economic value of the properties as well as the extent of the flood. Flood forecasting and warning system is one of the examples of the non-structural measures which can give early warning to the affected people. People who live near the flood-prone areas will be warned so that they can evacuate themselves and their belongings before the arrival of the flood. This can considerably reduce flood loss and damage and above all, the loss of human lives. Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model is a runoff analysis model converting rainfall into runoff for a given river basin. The simulation can be done using either ground or satellite-based rainfall to produce calculated discharge within the river. The calculated discharge is used to generate the flood inundation map within the catchment area for the selected flood event using Infowork RS.

  3. 14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system. (United States)


    ... to the terrain awareness and warning system audio and visual warnings. (d) Exceptions. Paragraphs (a... after March 29, 2002. Except as provided in paragraph (d) of this section, no person may operate a... minimum meets the requirements for Class B equipment in Technical Standard Order (TSO)-C151. (b) Airplanes...

  4. Flood forecasting and warning systems in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali Awan, Shaukat


    Meteorologically, there are two situations which may cause three types of floods in Indus Basin in Pakistan: i) Meteorological Situation for Category-I Floods when the seasonal low is a semi permanent weather system situated over south eastern Balochistan, south western Punjab, adjoining parts of Sindh get intensified and causes the moisture from the Arabian Sea to be brought up to upper catchments of Chenab and Jhelum rivers. (ii) Meteorological Situation for Category-11 and Category-111 Floods, which is linked with monsoon low/depression. Such monsoon systems originate in Bay of Bengal region and then move across India in general west/north westerly direction arrive over Rajasthan or any of adjoining states of India. Flood management in Pakistan is multi-functional process involving a number of different organizations. The first step in the process is issuance of flood forecast/warning, which is performed by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) utilizing satellite cloud pictures and quantitative precipitation measurement radar data, in addition to the conventional weather forecasting facilities. For quantitative flood forecasting, hydrological data is obtained through the Provincial Irrigation Department and WAPDA. Furthermore, improved rainfall/runoff and flood routing models have been developed to provide more reliable and explicit flood information to a flood prone population.(Author)

  5. Research and application of a hybrid model based on dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation for establishing air quality forecasting and early warning system: A case study in China. (United States)

    Xu, Yunzhen; Du, Pei; Wang, Jianzhou


    As the atmospheric environment pollution has been becoming more and more serious in China, it is highly desirable to develop a scientific and effective early warning system that plays a great significant role in analyzing and monitoring air quality. However, establishing a robust early warning system for warning the public in advance and ameliorating air quality is not only an extremely challenging task but also a public concerned problem for human health. Most previous studies are focused on improving the prediction accuracy, which usually ignore the significance of uncertainty information and comprehensive evaluation concerning air pollutants. Therefore, in this paper a novel robust early warning system was successfully developed, which consists of three modules: evaluation module, forecasting module and characteristics estimating module. In this system, a new dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed and applied to determine air quality levels and primary pollutants, which can be regarded as the research objectives; Moreover, to further mine and analyze the characteristics of air pollutants, four different distribution functions and interval forecasting method are also employed that can not only provide predictive range, confidence level and the other uncertain information of the pollutants future values, but also assist decision-makers in reducing and controlling the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. Case studies utilizing hourly PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO 2 data collected from Tianjin and Shanghai in China are applied as illustrative examples to estimate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed system. Experimental results obviously indicated that the developed novel early warning system is much suitable for analyzing and monitoring air pollution, which can also add a novel viable option for decision-makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Diagnosis and Early Warning of Wind Turbine Faults Based on Cluster Analysis Theory and Modified ANFIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quan Zhou


    Full Text Available The construction of large-scale wind farms results in a dramatic increase of wind turbine (WT faults. The failure mode is also becoming increasingly complex. This study proposes a new model for early warning and diagnosis of WT faults to solve the problem of Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA systems, given that the traditional threshold method cannot provide timely warning. First, the characteristic quantity of fault early warning and diagnosis analyzed by clustering analysis can obtain in advance abnormal data in the normal threshold range by considering the effects of wind speed. Based on domain knowledge, Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS is then modified to establish the fault early warning and diagnosis model. This approach improves the accuracy of the model under the condition of absent and sparse training data. Case analysis shows that the effect of the early warning and diagnosis model in this study is better than that of the traditional threshold method.

  7. Hybrid Intelligent Warning System for Boiler tube Leak Trips

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Deshvin


    Full Text Available Repeated boiler tube leak trips in coal fired power plants can increase operating cost significantly. An early detection and diagnosis of boiler trips is essential for continuous safe operations in the plant. In this study two artificial intelligent monitoring systems specialized in boiler tube leak trips have been proposed. The first intelligent warning system (IWS-1 represents the use of pure artificial neural network system whereas the second intelligent warning system (IWS-2 represents merging of genetic algorithms and artificial neural networks as a hybrid intelligent system. The Extreme Learning Machine (ELM methodology was also adopted in IWS-1 and compared with traditional training algorithms. Genetic algorithm (GA was adopted in IWS-2 to optimize the ANN topology and the boiler parameters. An integrated data preparation framework was established for 3 real cases of boiler tube leak trip based on a thermal power plant in Malaysia. Both the IWSs were developed using MATLAB coding for training and validation. The hybrid IWS-2 performed better than IWS-1.The developed system was validated to be able to predict trips before the plant monitoring system. The proposed artificial intelligent system could be adopted as a reliable monitoring system of the thermal power plant boilers.

  8. A remote oil spill detection system for early warning of spills at waterfront or land-based facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parsons, M.J.; Stocky, W.D.; Westerlind, J.; Gram, H.R.; Jadamec, M.P.; Johnson, J.R.


    Early detection of spills during loading/unloading of crude oil or products at terminals or plants is essential for quickly stopping the spill and minimizing its impact. Such detection is particularly difficult at night or in remote areas. In order to provide a reliable and inexpensive spill detection system for such an application, a joint development process was undertaken to redesign an oil spill detection buoy system which had been successfully tested in the 1970s. The sensor's operation is based on the stimulated fluorescence of oil and selective wavelength detection of this fluorescence. The prototype system consists of a flotation buoy for remote deployment of the sensor, rechargeable battery supply, a land-based computer base station, and radio signal transmitter. The oil spill detection buoy was modified in 1991 and tested in the laboratory. Field trials are under way and tests to date have confirmed the unit's ability to detect oil and to differentiate between various types of oil and/or products, particularly if the software is alerted to the type of product being transferred. 2 figs

  9. Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of a rockfall warning system (United States)

    Bründl, Michael; Sättele, Martina; Krautblatter, Michael; Straub, Daniel


    Rockslides and rockfalls can pose high risk to human settlements and traffic infrastructure. In addition to structural mitigation measures like rockfall nets, warning systems are increasingly installed to reduce rockfall risks. Whereas for structural mitigation measures with reducing effects on the spatial extent a structured evaluation method is existing, no or only few approaches to assess the effectiveness for warning systems are known. Especially for higher magnitude rockfalls structural mitigation measures are not effective, and reliable early warning systems will be essential in future. In response to that, we developed a classification and a framework to assess the reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems (Sättele et al, 2015a; 2016). Here, we demonstrate an application for the rockfall warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012 (Sättele et al., 2015b). We show that it is necessary to design such a warning system as fail-safe construction, which has to incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. With a hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting an event and on initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on related intervention cost. We conclude that it is possible to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of warning systems, which helps to optimize mitigation strategies against rockfall events. References Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Reliability and effectiveness of warning systems for natural hazards: concept and application to debris flow warning, Rel. Eng. Syst. Safety, 142, 192-202, 2015a. Sättele, M., Krautblatter, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Forecasting rock slope failure: How reliable and effective are warning systems?, Landslides, 605, 1-14, 2015b. Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and

  10. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.


    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  11. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System: a case study of the 2010 Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Ulutas


    Full Text Available This study analyzes the response of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS in relation to a case study: the Kepulaunan Mentawai earthquake and related tsunami, which occurred on 25 October 2010. The GDACS, developed by the European Commission Joint Research Center, combines existing web-based disaster information management systems with the aim to alert the international community in case of major disasters. The tsunami simulation system is an integral part of the GDACS. In more detail, the study aims to assess the tsunami hazard on the Mentawai and Sumatra coasts: the tsunami heights and arrival times have been estimated employing three propagation models based on the long wave theory. The analysis was performed in three stages: (1 pre-calculated simulations by using the tsunami scenario database for that region, used by the GDACS system to estimate the alert level; (2 near-real-time simulated tsunami forecasts, automatically performed by the GDACS system whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismological data providers; and (3 post-event tsunami calculations using GCMT (Global Centroid Moment Tensor fault mechanism solutions proposed by US Geological Survey (USGS for this event. The GDACS system estimates the alert level based on the first type of calculations and on that basis sends alert messages to its users; the second type of calculations is available within 30–40 min after the notification of the event but does not change the estimated alert level. The third type of calculations is performed to improve the initial estimations and to have a better understanding of the extent of the possible damage. The automatic alert level for the earthquake was given between Green and Orange Alert, which, in the logic of GDACS, means no need or moderate need of international humanitarian assistance; however, the earthquake generated 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands where 431 people died

  12. Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France (United States)

    Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline


    The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then

  13. The Telemetric Early Warning Environmental Radiation Monitoring System of Cyprus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christofides, S [Medical Physics Department, Nicosia General Hospital, Nicosia (Cyprus)


    This paper presents the hardware design, the development of the software and the use of the Telemetric Early Warning Environmental Radiation Monitoring System (TEWERMS) of Cyprus. (author). 3 refs, 6 figs.

  14. Designing Fatigue Warning Systems: The perspective of professional drivers. (United States)

    Meng, Fanxing; Li, Shuling; Cao, Lingzhi; Peng, Qijia; Li, Musen; Wang, Chunhui; Zhang, Wei


    Professional drivers have been characterized as experiencing heavy fatigue resulting from long driving time in their daily work. This study aimed to explore the potential demand of Fatigue Warning Systems (FWSs) among professional drivers as a means of reducing the danger of fatigue driving and to examine their opinions regarding the design of FWSs. Six focus groups with 35 participants and a questionnaire survey with 600 respondents were conducted among Chinese truck and taxi drivers to collect qualitative and quantitative data concerning the current situation of fatigue driving and opinions regarding the design of FWSs. The results revealed that both truck and taxi drivers had a positive attitude toward FWSs, and they hoped this system could not only monitor and warn them regarding their fatigue but also somewhat relieve their fatigue before they could stop and rest. As for warning signals, participants preferred auditory warnings, as opposed to visual, vibrotactile or electric stimuli. Interestingly, it was proposed that verbal warnings involving the information regarding consequences of fatigue driving or the wishes of drivers' family members would be more effective. Additionally, different warning patterns, including graded, single and continuous warnings, were discussed in the focus group. Finally, the participants proposed many other suggestions, as well as their concerns regarding FWSs, which will provide valuable information for companies who wish to develop FWSs for professional drivers. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. An Event Reporting and Early-Warning Safety System Based on the Internet of Things for Underground Coal Mines: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung Wan Jo


    Full Text Available Fatal accidents associated with underground coal mines require the implementation of high-level gas monitoring and miner’s localization approaches to promote underground safety and health. This study introduces a real-time monitoring, event-reporting and early-warning platform, based on cluster analysis for outlier detection, spatiotemporal statistical analysis, and an RSS range-based weighted centroid localization algorithm for improving safety management and preventing accidents in underground coal mines. The proposed platform seamlessly integrates monitoring, analyzing, and localization approaches using the Internet of Things (IoT, cloud computing, a real-time operational database, application gateways, and application program interfaces. The prototype has been validated and verified at the operating underground Hassan Kishore coal mine. Sensors for air quality parameters including temperature, humidity, CH4, CO2, and CO demonstrated an excellent performance, with regression constants always greater than 0.97 for each parameter when compared to their commercial equivalent. This framework enables real-time monitoring, identification of abnormal events (>90%, and verification of a miner’s localization (with <1.8 m of error in the harsh environment of underground mines. The main contribution of this study is the development of an open source, customizable, and cost-effective platform for effectively promoting underground coal mine safety. This system is helpful for solving the problems of accessibility, serviceability, interoperability, and flexibility associated with safety in coal mines.

  16. Regional early flood warning system: design and implementation (United States)

    Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.


    This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.

  17. A web-based Tamsui River flood early-warning system with correction of real-time water stage using monitoring data (United States)

    Liao, H. Y.; Lin, Y. J.; Chang, H. K.; Shang, R. K.; Kuo, H. C.; Lai, J. S.; Tan, Y. C.


    Taiwan encounters heavy rainfalls frequently. There are three to four typhoons striking Taiwan every year. To provide lead time for reducing flood damage, this study attempt to build a flood early-warning system (FEWS) in Tanshui River using time series correction techniques. The predicted rainfall is used as the input for the rainfall-runoff model. Then, the discharges calculated by the rainfall-runoff model is converted to the 1-D river routing model. The 1-D river routing model will output the simulating water stages in 487 cross sections for the future 48-hr. The downstream water stage at the estuary in 1-D river routing model is provided by storm surge simulation. Next, the water stages of 487 cross sections are corrected by time series model such as autoregressive (AR) model using real-time water stage measurements to improve the predicted accuracy. The results of simulated water stages are displayed on a web-based platform. In addition, the models can be performed remotely by any users with web browsers through a user interface. The on-line video surveillance images, real-time monitoring water stages, and rainfalls can also be shown on this platform. If the simulated water stage exceeds the embankments of Tanshui River, the alerting lights of FEWS will be flashing on the screen. This platform runs periodically and automatically to generate the simulation graphic data of flood water stages for flood disaster prevention and decision making.

  18. Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger S. Pulwarty


    Full Text Available Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all “natural” hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia. To cross the spectrum of potential drivers and impacts, drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. An early warning system is much more than a forecast – it is a linked risk information (including people׳s perception of risk and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance. We draw on the lessons of over 21 drought early warning systems around the world, in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. Using the rich experience of information systems across the globe, this paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making in response to a changing climate.

  19. Geoethical issues involved in Tsunami Warning System concepts and operations (United States)

    Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Tinti, Stefano


    The main goal of a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) is to mitigate the effect of an incoming tsunami by alerting coastal population early enough to allow people to evacuate safely from inundation zones. Though this representation might seem oversimplified, nonetheless, achieving successfully this goal requires a positive synergy of geoscience, communication, emergency management, technology, education, social sciences, politics. Geoethical issues arise always when there is an interaction between geoscience and society, and TWS is a paradigmatic case where interaction is very strong and is made critical because a) the formulation of the tsunami alert has to be made in a time as short as possible and therefore on uncertain data, and b) any evaluation error (underestimation or overestimation) can lead to serious (and sometimes catastrophic) consequences involving wide areas and a large amount of population. From the geoethical point of view three issues are critical: how to (i) combine forecasts and uncertainties reasonably and usefully, (ii) cope and possibly solve the dilemma whether it is better over-alerting or under-alerting population and (iii) deal with responsibility and liability of geoscientists, TWS operators, emergency operators and coastal population. The discussion will be based on the experience of the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center (HL-NTWC, Greece), which operates on 24/7 basis as a special unit of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, and acts also as Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) in the framework of the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) of the IOC/UNESCO. Since August 2012, when HL-NTWC was officially declared as operational, 14 tsunami warning messages have been disseminated to a large number of subscribers after strong submarine earthquakes occurring in Greece and elsewhere in the eastern Mediterranean. It is recognized that the alerting process

  20. Leakage warning system for flexible underwater pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, E; Bernstein, L


    Underwater pipelines for unloading oil tankers, e.g. in 30 km distance from the harbour site, are required to be flexible and require supervision. This is done by implementation of oil sensitive sensors between the inner rubber tube and the following impregnated textile layer. The generated sensor signals, influenced by leak oil, have to be wireless transmitted from 150 meters under water to the supervisory station at the coast. Sensor configurations are described, to derive the point of the leakage from the topologized warning signals.

  1. Progress in the development of a S-RETGEM-based detector for an early forest fire warning system (United States)

    Charpak, G.; Benaben, P.; Breuil, P.; Martinengo, P.; Nappi, E.; Peskov, V.


    We present a prototype of a Strip Resistive Thick GEM (S-RETGEM) photosensitive gaseous detector filled with Ne and ethylferrocene (EF) vapours at a total pressure of 1 atm for an early forest fire detection system. Measurements show that it is one hundred times more sensitive than the best commercial ultraviolet (UV) flame detectors; and therefore, it is able to reliably detect a flame of ~ 1.5 × 1.5 × 1.5 m3 at a distance of about 1 km. An additional and unique feature of this detector is its imaging capability, which in combination with other techniques, may significantly reduce false fire alarms rate when operating in an automatic mode. Preliminary results conducted with air-filled photosensitive gaseous detectors are also presented. The main advantages of this approach include both the simplicity of manufacturing and affordability of construction materials such as plastics and glues specifically reducing detector production cost. The sensitivity of these air-filled detectors at certain conditions may be as high as those filled with Ne and EF. Long-term tests of such sealed detectors indicate a significant progress in this direction. We believe that our detectors utilized in addition to other flame and smoke sensors will exceptionally increase the capability to detect forest fire at a very early stage of development. Our future efforts will be focused on attempts to commercialize such detectors utilizing our aforementioned findings.

  2. Progress in the development of a S RETGEM-based detector for an early forest fire warning system

    CERN Document Server

    Charpak, Georges; Breuil, P; Martinengo, P; Nappi, E; Peskov, V


    In this paper we present a prototype of a Strip Resistive Thick GEM photosensitive gaseous detector filled with Ne and ethylferrocene vapours at a total pressure of 1 atm for an early forest fire detection system. Tests show that it is one hundred times more sensitive than the best commercial ultraviolet flame detectors and therefore, it is able to reliably detect a flame of 1.5x1.5x1.5 m3 at a distance of about 1km. An additional and unique feature of this detector is its imaging capability, which in combination with other techniques, may significantly reduce false fire alarms when operating in an automatic mode. Preliminary results conducted with air filled photosensitive gaseous detectors are also presented. The approach main advantages include both the simplicity of manufacturing and affordability of construction materials such as plastics and glues specifically reducing detector production cost. The sensitivity of these air filled detectors at certain conditions may be as high as those filled with Ne and...

  3. Atmospheric control on ground and space based early warning system for hazard linked to ash injection into the atmosphere (United States)

    Caudron, Corentin; Taisne, Benoit; Whelley, Patrick; Garces, Milton; Le Pichon, Alexis


    Violent volcanic eruptions are common in the Southeast Asia which is bordered by active subduction zones with hundreds of active volcanoes. The physical conditions at the eruptive vent are difficult to estimate, especially when there are only a few sensors distributed around the volcano. New methods are therefore required to tackle this problem. Among them, satellite imagery and infrasound may rapidly provide information on strong eruptions triggered at volcanoes which are not closely monitored by on-site instruments. The deployment of an infrasonic array located at Singapore will increase the detection capability of the existing IMS network. In addition, the location of Singapore with respect to those volcanoes makes it the perfect site to identify erupting blasts based on the wavefront characteristics of the recorded signal. There are ~750 active or potentially active volcanoes within 4000 kilometers of Singapore. They have been combined into 23 volcanic zones that have clear azimuth with respect to Singapore. Each of those zones has been assessed for probabilities of eruptive styles, from moderate (Volcanic Explosivity Index of 3) to cataclysmic (VEI 8) based on remote morphologic analysis. Ash dispersal models have been run using wind velocity profiles from 2010 to 2012 and hypothetical eruption scenarios for a range of eruption explosivities. Results can be used to estimate the likelihood of volcanic ash at any location in SE Asia. Seasonal changes in atmospheric conditions will strongly affect the potential to detect small volcanic eruptions with infrasound and clouds can hide eruption plumes from satellites. We use the average cloud cover for each zone to estimate the probability of eruption detection from space, and atmospheric models to estimate the probability of eruption detection with infrasound. Using remote sensing in conjunction with infrasound improves detection capabilities as each method is capable of detecting eruptions when the other is 'blind

  4. Vulnerability analysis for a drought Early Warning System (United States)

    Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca


    Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a

  5. Development of structural health monitoring and early warning system for reinforced concrete system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iranata, Data; Wahyuni, Endah; Murtiadi, Suryawan; Widodo, Amien; Riksakomara, Edwin; Sani, Nisfu Asrul


    Many buildings have been damaged due to earthquakes that occurred recently in Indonesia. The main cause of the damage is the large deformation of the building structural component cannot accommodate properly. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS) to measure precisely the deformation of the building structural component in the real time conditions. This paper presents the development of SHMS for reinforced concrete structural system. This monitoring system is based on deformation component such as strain of reinforcement bar, concrete strain, and displacement of reinforced concrete component. Since the deformation component has exceeded the limit value, the warning message can be sent to the building occupies. This warning message has also can be performed as early warning system of the reinforced concrete structural system. The warning message can also be sent via Short Message Service (SMS) through the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network. Hence, the SHMS should be integrated with internet modem to connect with GSM network. Additionally, the SHMS program is verified with experimental study of simply supported reinforced concrete beam. Verification results show that the SHMS has good agreement with experimental results

  6. Flood early warning system in I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samadi, Slina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila


    advance. Studies show -that not only frequency but also intensity of floods have been increased during recent years. Flood risk mitigation measures aim at modifying either the flood producing processes, or the flood hazards, or exposure and vulnerability to flooding. The analysis and response to flood risk needs to be integrated in a systemic manner: that is to say, in a manner that recognizes all the factors present in natural hazard systems and their interactions. A guideline for integrated flood risk management was established, in our country. It is covered land-use regulation; the integration of structural and non-structural measures; the integration of flood risk management plans with related plans; and recommendations on inter provincial cooperation on flood risk management. Based on the above-mentioned components, the National Flood Early Warning System in 1. R. of Iran (NFEWSI) has been designed and introduced to the government, by IRIMO (2001) and Climatological Research Institute (CRI, 2001) and it is on operation in the country from 2000. the NFEWSI consists from three main parts: 1. Observation, 2. Forecast and Warning Issue, 3. Response.(Author)

  7. Meteotsunamis, destructive tsunami-like waves: from observations and simulations towards a warning system (MESSI) (United States)

    Sepic, Jadranka; Vilibic, Ivica


    Atmospherically-generated tsunami-like waves, also known as meteotsunamis, pose a severe threat for exposed coastlines. Although not as destructive as ordinary tsunamis, several meters high meteotsunami waves can bring destruction, cause loss of human lives and raise panic. For that reason, MESSI, an integrative meteotsunami research & warning project, has been developed and will be presented herein. The project has a threefold base: (1) research of atmosphere-ocean interaction with focus on (i) source processes in the atmosphere, (ii) energy transfer to the ocean and (iii) along-propagation growth of meteotsunami waves; (2) estimation of meteotsunami occurrence rates in past, present and future climate, and mapping of meteotsunami hazard; (3) construction of a meteotsunami warning system prototype, with the latter being the main objective of the project. Due to a great frequency of meteotsunamis and its complex bathymetry which varies from the shallow shelf in the north towards deep pits in the south, with a number of funnel-shaped bays and harbours substantially amplifying incoming tsunami-like waves, the Adriatic, northernmost of the Mediterranean seas, has been chosen as an ideal area for realization of the MESSI project and implementation of the warning system. This warning system will however be designed to allow for a wider applicability and easy-to-accomplish transfer to other endangered locations. The architecture of the warning system will integrate several components: (1) real-time measurements of key oceanographic and atmospheric parameters, (2) coupled atmospheric-ocean models run in real time (warning) mode, and (3) semi-automatic procedures and protocols for warning of civil protection, local authorities and public. The effectiveness of the warning system will be tested over the historic events.

  8. Practical Application of Site-Specific Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanda, Katsuhisa


    The development of an on-site warning system was reported. This system improves the timing of warnings and reduces the number of false alarms by improving the method of estimating the JMA seismic intensity using earthquake early warning system information based on site-specific data. Moreover, the development of an application for practical use in a construction company and an integrated system for realizing system shutdown was also reported. The concept of this system is based on the following. Seismic intensity is not distributed concentrically, and the attenuation relationship cannot explain the distribution of seismic intensity precisely. The standard method of seismic intensity prediction is construed as 'attenuation relationship + soil amplification factor', but this may be improved in the reformulation 'original attenuation relationship for each site + correction factors dependent on the epicenter location and depth' using a seismic intensity database that includes data on recent and historical earthquakes. (authors)

  9. Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile (United States)

    Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.


    Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

  10. Oak Ridge Reservation Public Warning Siren System Annual Test Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R. F. Gee


    The full operational test of the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) Public Warning Siren System (PWSS) was successfully conducted on September 27, 2000. The annual test is a full-scale sounding of the individual siren systems around each of the three Department of Energy (DOE) sites in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The purpose of the annual test is to demonstrate and validate the siren systems' ability to alert personnel outdoors in the Immediate Notification Zones (INZ) (approximately two miles) around each site. The success of this test is based on two critical functions of the siren system. The first function is system operability. The system is considered operable if 90% of the sirens are operational. System diagnostics and direct field observations were used to validate the operability of the siren systems. Based on the diagnostic results and field observations, greater than 90% of the sirens were considered operational. The second function is system audibility. The system is considered audible if the siren could be heard in the immediate notification zones around each of the three sites. Direct field observations, along with sound level measurements, were used to validate the audibility of the siren system. Based on the direct field observations and sound level measurements, the siren system was considered audible. The combination of field observations, system diagnostic status reports, and sound level measurements provided a high level of confidence that the system met and would meet operational requirements upon demand. As part of the overall system test, the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) activated the Emergency Alerting System (EAS), which utilized area radio stations to make announcements regarding the test and to remind residents of what to do in the event of an actual emergency

  11. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt (United States)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.


    This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

  12. Flood early warning system : Design, implementation and computational modules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Shirshov, G.S.; Melnikova, N.B.; Belleman, R.G.; Rusadi, F.I.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Gouldby, B.P.; Lhomme, J.; Balis, B.; Bubak, M.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Ozhigin, A.V.; Lang, B.; Meijer, R.J.


    We present a prototype of the flood early warning system (EWS) developed within the UrbanFlood FP7 project. The system monitors sensor networks installed in flood defenses (dikes, dams, embankments, etc.), detects sensor signal abnormalities, calculates dike failure probability, and simulates

  13. Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems. (United States)

    Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan


    The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.

  14. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements


    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J.


    Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, an...

  15. Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System (United States)

    Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.


    Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

  16. Safety early warning research for highway construction based on case-based reasoning and variable fuzzy sets. (United States)

    Liu, Yan; Yi, Ting-Hua; Xu, Zhen-Jun


    As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established.

  17. Safety Early Warning Research for Highway Construction Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Variable Fuzzy Sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu


    Full Text Available As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR, this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods’ effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established.

  18. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus. (United States)


    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating characteristics of electromagnetic, electronic, or... limits within which the system is designed to operate. ...

  19. A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. V. Martina


    Full Text Available Operational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyses using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability.

  20. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management (United States)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.


    hazard assessment and emergency response. Great importance is attached to the scientific understanding of hazards and protective structures, while analysis of socio-economic impacts and risk assessment are not considered enough. The reduction of vulnerability has to be taken into greater account. Also the information needs of different stakeholders have to be identified at an early stage and should be integrated in the development of early warning systems. The content of the warning message must be simple, understandable and should cover instructions on how to react. Further the timeliness of the messages has to be guarented. In this context the aim of the landslide monitoring and early warning system SLEWS (Sensor Based Landslide Early Warning System) is to integrate the above mentioned aspects of a holistic disaster and risk management. The technology of spatial data infrastructures and web services provides the use of multiple communication channels within an early warning system. Thus people-centred early warning messages and information about slope stability can be sent in nearly real-time. It has to be underlined that the technological information process is just one element of an effective warning system. Moreover the warning system has also to be considered as a social system and has to make allowance to socio-economic and gender aspects : «[...] Develop early warning systems that are people centered, in particular systems whose warnings are timely and understandable to those at risk, which take into account the demographic, gender, cultural and livelihood characteristics of the target audiences, including guidance on how to act upon warnings, and that support effective operations by disaster managers and other decision makers » (Hyogo Framework, 2005) References : UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION SECRETARIAT (UNISDR) (2006): Developing early warning systems: a checklist, Third international conference on early warning (EWC III

  1. The Food Early Warning System Project in Somalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leblanc, M.


    Full Text Available The article describes shortly the objectives of a Food Early Warning System (FEWS project, as well as its organisation. The specifie case of Somalia, where the project had to evolve in increasingly difficult situations, and the solutions used so as to preserve the output, are described.

  2. Development of Early Warning Methods for Electric Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jóhannsson, Hjörtur

    This thesis concerns the development of methods that can provide, in realtime, an early warning for an emerging blackout in electric power systems. The blackout in E-Denmark and S-Sweden on September 23, 2003 is the main motivation for the method development. The blackout was caused by occurrence...

  3. Signal Processing Methods for Flood Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Kozionov, A.P.; Kusherbaeva, V.T.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Meijer, R.J.; Hinkelmann, R.; Nasermoaddeli, M.H.; Liong, S.Y.; Savic, D.; Fröhle, P.; Daemrich, K.F.


    We present in a data-driven approach for detection of anomalies in earthen dam (dike) behaviour that can indicate the onset of flood defence structure failure. This approach is implemented in the UrbanFlood early warning system's Artificial Intelligence component that processes dike measurements in

  4. Drunk driving warning system (DDWS). Volume 2, Field test evaluation (United States)


    The Drunk Driving Warning System (DDWS) is a vehicle-mounted device for testing driver impairment and activating alarms. The driver must pass a steering competency test (the Critical Tracking Task or CTT) in order to drive the car in a normal manner....

  5. Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment (United States)

    Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke


    Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

  6. The International Atomic Energy Agency shows keen interest. Innovative warning system for nuclear proliferation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smet, S.; Van der Meer, K.


    In order to prevent nuclear proliferation, nuclear fuels and other strategic materials have to be responsibly managed. Non-proliferation aims to counteract the uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear materials worldwide. SCK-CEN is developing an innovative nuclear warning system based on political and economic indicators. Such a system should allow the early detection of the development of a nuclear weapons programme.

  7. The new Euskalmet coastal-maritime warning system (United States)

    Gaztelumendi, Santiago; Egaña, Joseba; Liria, Pedro; Gonzalez, Manuel; Aranda, José Antonio; Anitua, Pedro


    This work presents the main characteristics of the Basque Meteorology Agency (Euskalmet) maritime-coastal risk warning system, with special emphasis on the latest updates, including a clear differentiation on specific warning messages addressing sea conditions for navigation purposes in the first 2 nautical miles, and expected coastal impacts. Some details of the warning bulletin for maritime and coastal risk situations are also presented, together with other communication products and strategies used in coastal and maritime severe episodes at the Basque coast. Today, three different aspects are included in the coastal-maritime risk warning system in Basque Country, related to the main potential severe events that affecting coastal activities. - "Galerna" risk relates to a sudden wind reversal that can severely affect coastal navigation and recreational activities. - "Navigation" risk relates to severe sea state conditions for 0-2 miles, affecting different navigation activities. - "Coastal impact" risk relates to adverse wave characteristics and tidal surges that induce flooding events and different impacts in littoral areas.

  8. Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia (United States)

    Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir


    Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly

  9. Development of a Global Agricultural Hotspot Detection and Early Warning System (United States)

    Lemoine, G.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Csak, G.


    The number of web based platforms for crop monitoring has grown rapidly over the last years and anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators can be accessed online thanks to a number of web based portals. However, while these systems make available a large amount of crop monitoring data to the agriculture and food security analysts, there is no global platform which provides agricultural production hotspot warning in a highly automatic and timely manner. Therefore a web based system providing timely warning evidence as maps and short narratives is currently under development by the Joint Research Centre. The system (called "HotSpot Detection System of Agriculture Production Anomalies", HSDS) will focus on water limited agricultural systems worldwide. The automatic analysis of relevant meteorological and vegetation indicators at selected administrative units (Gaul 1 level) will trigger warning messages for the areas where anomalous conditions are observed. The level of warning (ranging from "watch" to "alert") will depend on the nature and number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. Information regarding the extent of the agricultural areas concerned by the anomaly and the progress of the agricultural season will complement the warning label. In addition, we are testing supplementary detailed information from other sources for the areas triggering a warning. These regard the automatic web-based and food security-tailored analysis of media (using the JRC Media Monitor semantic search engine) and the automatic detection of active crop area using Sentinel 1, upcoming Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 imagery processed in Google Earth Engine. The basic processing will be fully automated and updated every 10 days exploiting low resolution rainfall estimates and satellite vegetation indices. Maps, trend graphs and statistics accompanied by short narratives edited by a team of crop monitoring experts, will be made available on the website on a

  10. Experiences integrating autonomous components and legacy systems into tsunami early warning systems (United States)

    Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.


    Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special

  11. Warning systems in a computerized nursing process for Intensive Care Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Couto Carvalho Barra


    Full Text Available A hybrid study combining technological production and methodological research aiming to establish associations between the data and information that are part of a Computerized Nursing Process according to the ICNP® Version 1.0, indicators of patient safety and quality of care. Based on the guidelines of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the American Association of Critical Care Nurses for the expansion of warning systems, five warning systems were developed: potential for iatrogenic pneumothorax, potential for care-related infections, potential for suture dehiscence in patients after abdominal or pelvic surgery, potential for loss of vascular access, and potential for endotracheal extubation. The warning systems are a continuous computerized resource of essential situations that promote patient safety and enable the construction of a way to stimulate clinical reasoning and support clinical decision making of nurses in intensive care.

  12. REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece (United States)

    Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis


    Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

  13. Developing effective warning systems: Ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand (United States)

    Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Christianson, Amy; Becker, Julia; Keys, Harry


    PurposeThis paper examines the unique challenges to volcanic risk management associated with having a ski area on an active volcano. Using a series of simulated eruption/lahar events at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, as a context, a model of risk management that integrates warning system design and technology, risk perceptions and the human response is explored. Principal resultsDespite increases in the observed audibility and comprehension of the warning message, recall of public education content, and people's awareness of volcanic risk, a persistent minority of the public continued to demonstrate only moderate awareness of the correct actions to take during a warning and failed to respond effectively. A relationship between level of staff competence and correct public response allowed the level of public response to be used to identify residual risk and additional staff training needs. The quality of staff awareness, action and decision-making has emerged as a critical factor, from detailed staff and public interviews and from exercise observations. Staff actions are especially important for mobilising correct public response at Ruapehu ski areas due to the transient nature of the visitor population. Introduction of education material and staff training strategies that included the development of emergency decision-making competencies improved knowledge of correct actions, and increased the proportion of people moving out of harm's way during blind tests. Major conclusionsWarning effectiveness is a function of more than good hazard knowledge and the generation and notification of an early warning message. For warning systems to be effective, these factors must be complemented by accurate knowledge of risk and risk management actions. By combining the Ruapehu findings with those of other warning system studies in New Zealand, and internationally, a practical five-step model for effective early warning systems is discussed. These steps must be based upon sound and

  14. [Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model]. (United States)

    Xu, Mei; Liu, Chun la; Li, Dan; Zhong, Xiao Lin


    Tourism ecological security early warning is of great significance both to the coordination of ecological environment protection and tourism industry rapid development in tourism destination, and the sustainable and healthy development of regional social and economy. Firstly, based on the DPSIR model, the tourism ecological security early warning index system of Zhangjiajie was constructed from 5 aspects, which were driving force, pressure, state, impact and response. Then, by using the improved TOPSIS method, the tourism ecological security situation of Zhangjiajie from 2001 to 2014 was analyzed. Lastly, by using the grey GM (1,1) model, the tourism ecological security evolution trend of 2015-2020 was predicted. The results indicated that, on the whole, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security showed a slightly upward trend during 2001-2014, the warning degree was the moderate warning. In terms of each subsystem, warning degree of the driving force system and the pressure system of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological secu-rity were on the rise, which evolved from light warning to heavy warning; warning degree of the state system and the impact system had not changed so much, and had been in the moderate warning; warning degree of the response system was on the decline, which changed from huge warning to no warning during 2001-2014. According to the current development trend, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security would rise further in 2015-2020, and the warning degree would turn from moderate warning into light warning, but the task of coordinating the relationship between tourism development and ecological construction and environmental protection would be still arduous.

  15. Airbus windshear warning and guidance system (United States)

    Bonafe, J. L.


    From its first designed airplane, Airbus considered mandatory a help in the crew's decision-making process to initiate an escape maneuver and help to successfully realize it. All the Airbus airplanes designed since 1975 included an alpha-floor function and a speed reference control law imbedded in the speed reference system (SRS) box for A 300 and FAC and FCC for A 310, A300/600 and the A 320. Alpha-Floor function takes into account the airplane energy situation considering angle of attack and observed longitudinal situation in order to apply immediately the full power without any pilot action. Speed reference managers control airspeed and/or ground speed in order to survive a maximum in shear situation. In order to comply with the new FAA regulation: Aerospatiale and Airbus developed more efficient systems. A comparison between 1975 and a newly developed system is given. It is explained how the new system improves the situation.

  16. Vrancea early warning system for Bucharest and industrial objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, C.; Marmureanu, A.; Grigore, A.; Tataru, D.


    Romania is an earthquake prone area and it is of crucial importance to obtain quantitative information needed for seismic risk mitigation and related public policies and seismic safety measures. The most damaging earthquakes in Romania concentrate in the Vrancea region, located at the sharp bend of the Eastern Carpathians Arc, in a well confined focal volume at intermediate depths between 60 km and 200 km.Vrancea earthquakes are documented for at least a millennium (since 985 a.c.) and represent very peculiar characteristics. They are a permanent threat for large urban areas on the Romanian territory and extended areas in Europe. Bucharest is among the cities mostly affected by destructive earthquakes. The early warning system in Romania is to provide individuals and communities exposed to disaster risk given by strong Vrancea earthquakes, with accurate information about an impending hazard as early as possible, to act in a timely and appropriate manner to reduce probability of suffering, personal damage, death and property losses. The purpose of this early system is to issue messages at sites of interest before the destructive seismic energy arrives. Early warning system is a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings/alerts. It needs to become part of a management information system for decision - making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and as a part of national and local strategies for disaster risk reduction. (authors)

  17. Vrancea early warning system for Bucharest and industrial objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wenzel, Friedemann; Bonjer, K. P.


    Romania is an earthquake prone area and it is of crucial importance to obtain quantitative information needed for seismic risk mitigation and related public policies and seismic safety measures. The most damaging earthquakes in Romania concentrate in the Vrancea region, located at the sharp bend of the Eastern Carpathians Arc, in a well confined focal volume at intermediate depths between 60 km and 200 km. Vrancea earthquakes are documented for at least a millennium (since 985 a.c.) and represent very peculiar characteristics. They are a permanent threat for large urban areas on the Romanian territory and extended areas in Europe. Bucharest is among the mega cities mostly affected by destructive earthquakes. The early warning system in Romania is to provide individuals and communities exposed to disaster risk due to strong Vrancea earthquakes, with accurate information about an impending hazard as early as possible, to act in a timely and appropriate manner to reduce probability of suffering, personal damage, death and property losses. The purpose of this early system is to issue messages at sites of interest before the destructive seismic energy arrives. Early warning system is a technological instrument to detect, monitor and issue warnings/alerts. It needs to become part of a management information system for decision - making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and as a part of national and local strategies for disaster risk reduction. (authors)

  18. Flood Monitoring and Early Warning System Using Ultrasonic Sensor (United States)

    Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.


    The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.

  19. Tsunami Early Warning via a Physics-Based Simulation Pipeline (United States)

    Wilson, J. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Ward, S. N.; Komjathy, A.


    Through independent efforts, physics-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and atmospheric signatures of these phenomenon have been developed. With the goal of producing tsunami forecasts and early warning tools for at-risk regions, we join these three spheres to create a simulation pipeline. The Virtual Quake simulator can produce thousands of years of synthetic seismicity on large, complex fault geometries, as well as the expected surface displacement in tsunamigenic regions. These displacements are used as initial conditions for tsunami simulators, such as Tsunami Squares, to produce catalogs of potential tsunami scenarios with probabilities. Finally, these tsunami scenarios can act as input for simulations of associated ionospheric total electron content, signals which can be detected by GNSS satellites for purposes of early warning in the event of a real tsunami. We present the most recent developments in this project.

  20. Silent Warning: Understanding the National Terrorism Advisory System (United States)


    NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited SILENT WARNING...PERFORMING OR GANIZATION NA:i\\ti E (S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SP ONSORING /MONIT ORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND...Homeland Sectu’ity Advisory System, Boston Marathon bombing, Christmas Day bomber, tmderwear bomber, hum cane , cotmteiteiTO!’ism, CT AB

  1. Indications and Warning Analysis Management System IWAMS. A Design Study (United States)


    White Album by Joan Didion . Copyright © 1979 by Joan Didion . Reprinted with the permission of Simon and Schuster. "Indications, Warning, and Crisis...and the system. The chief symptom is memorably suggested in these passages by the writer, Joan Didion , on an illness she has suffered. Referring to...Science Review, Vol. 73, 1979, pp, 171-180. 210 IWAMS (40) "We tell ourselves": See Joan Didion , The White Album. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1979, p. 11

  2. Emergency warning via automated distribution system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glasser, J.C.


    Due to the Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant accident of March 28, 1979, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Federal Emergency Management Agency require a general upgrading of existing Emergency Preparedness Plans. NUREG-0654/FEMA REP-1, Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, dated October 1980, describes the Emergency Plans required and includes the Plant Operator's Onsite Plan, as well as the State, County, and Local Offsite Plans. As part of these Emergency Preparedness Plans, an Emergency Notification System is required to alert the general population within the Emergency Planning Zone surrounding a Nuclear Power Plant that a general emergency has occurred and that they should tune to an Emergency Broadcast Station for further information and instructions. The emergency notification system for Beaver Valley Power Station is described. The system is the capability of alerting 100% of the population with 5 mi of Beaver Valley Power Station within 15 min, and the capability of alerting 100% of the population within 10 mi of Beaver Valley Power Station within 45 min

  3. Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željka Asanović


    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to create an adequate early warning model for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The probability of banking crisis occurrence is calculated using discrete dependent variable models, more precisely, estimating logit regression. Afterwards, seven simple logit regressions that individually have two explanatory variables are estimated. Adequate weights have been assigned to all seven regressions using the technique of Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of this technique is that it takes into account the model uncertainty by considering various combinations of models in order to minimize the author’s subjective judgment when determining reliable early warning indicators. The results of Bayesian model averaging largely coincide with the results of a previously estimated dynamic logit model. Indicators of credit expansion, thanks to their performances, have a dominant role in early warning models for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The results have also shown that the Montenegrin banking system is significantly exposed to trends on the global level.

  4. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Schöne


    Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

    The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

    The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  5. Study of Water Pollution Early Warning Framework Based on Internet of Things (United States)

    Chengfang, H.; Xiao, X.; Dingtao, S.; Bo, C.; Xiongfei, W.


    In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Chengfang


    Full Text Available In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

  7. Upgrade of the early warning system in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarvari, A.; Cindro, M.; Krizman, M.; Mitic, D.


    The main task of the Early Warning System in Slovenia is to warn the competent authorities of the increase of external radiation. Only an efficient Ewes can cope with the situation that we have in case of nuclear or radiation accident. For such purposes the measuring locations have to fulfil some basic radiation monitoring criteria (population density, distance from NPP, precipitation, land use). In this article the results of each criterion as well as the total set is described. The results of the applied criteria are presented with colour contour images. The purpose of this article is to allocate the critical areas on the territory of Slovenia that have to be considered in final determination of the appropriate measuring locations. (author)

  8. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements. (United States)

    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J


    Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word "WARNING", and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

  9. Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania (United States)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen


    Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing

  10. Improvements of existing early warning system in Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomisa, T.


    The gamma radiation early warning system in Croatia was established in 1993. The first configuration contained 3 measuring stations connected to the monitoring center and up today the system is expanded with 5 additional locations. Each location is equipped with the MFM202 gamma-monitor and additional equipment that is not unique for all locations. This difference in remote equipment configuration caused by different communication medium used, is the reason to improve existing system trough equipment unification introducing PLC unit in the standard configuration. Such configuration enables additional functions such as automatic alerting and collecting meteorological data. (author)

  11. Strengthening flood warning systems: the benefits of encouraging social preparedness (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Seibert, Jan


    Flood warning and response have normally been focused on the technical aspects and disregarded the connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social dimensions. An increasing body of research, however, points at the importance of considering socio-hydrological aspects to improve flood damage mitigation. One of the key factors is the preparedness of the public and first responders during flood situations, which is influenced by many behavioural traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or denial. In this study, we investigate the impact of social preparedness on the efficiency of flood early warning systems by using the recency of flood experience as a proxy for social preparedness. To this end, we developed a stylised model and a synthetic data-set to perform a hypothetical analysis. The main findings point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially when the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. More specifically, efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings from this study provide insights into the importance of considering social preparedness in decision-making for disaster risk reduction.

  12. Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea (United States)

    Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil


    Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory

  13. A tsunami early warning system for the coastal area modeling (United States)

    Soebroto, Arief Andy; Sunaryo, Suhartanto, Ery


    The tsunami disaster is a potential disaster in the territory of Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago country and close to the ocean deep. The tsunami occurred in Aceh province in 2004. Early prevention efforts have been carried out. One of them is making "tsunami buoy" which has been developed by BPPT. The tool puts sensors on the ocean floor near the coast to detect earthquakes on the ocean floor. Detection results are transmitted via satellite by a transmitter placed floating on the sea surface. The tool will cost billions of dollars for each system. Another constraint was the transmitter theft "tsunami buoy" in the absence of guard. In this study of the system has a transmission system using radio frequency and focused on coastal areas where costs are cheaper, so that it can be applied at many beaches in Indonesia are potentially affected by the tsunami. The monitoring system sends the detection results to the warning system using a radio frequency with a capability within 3 Km. Test results on the sub module sensor monitoring system generates an error of 0.63% was taken 10% showed a good quality sensing. The test results of data transmission from the transceiver of monitoring system to the receiver of warning system produces 100% successful delivery and reception of data. The test results on the whole system to function 100% properly.

  14. Drought early warning system in I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samadi, Sina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila


    Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate; it occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. It occurs in high as well as low rainfall areas. Drought is the consequence of a natural reduction in the amount of precipitation received over an extended period of time, usually a season or more in length, although other climatic factors (such as high temperatures, high winds, and low relative humidity) are often associated with it in many regions of the world and can significantly aggravate the severity of the event. Most parts of the 1. R. of Iran have a high degree of aridity and pronounced rainfall variability in large parts of their territories and are therefore highly vulnerable to drought. Therefore, drought is one of greatest natural disasters in our country. Among all natural disasters, droughts occur the most frequently, have the longest duration, cover the largest area, and cause the greatest losses in agricultural production. The quantification of impacts and the provision of disaster relief are far more difficult tasks for drought than they are for other natural hazards. Since, the drought is a normal part of climate, it is difficult to determine its onset, development, and end. This fact emphasizes the importance of developing comprehensive monitoring or early warning systems. Drought prediction (monthly, seasonal, or yearly trends) is particularly useful for the drought planning and mitigation. Drought Early Warning System is applied as a pilot study during the last two years. The NDEWSI is based on the monitoring drought indices, such as SPI, Palmer and NDVI, and preparedness, where will be discussed in this paper. In this paper, we have presented a brief drought analysis using the SPI and demonstrated its potential use for drought analysis with minimal data requirements. It is our view that development of a drought monitoring system, based largely on meteorological and climatic information, can be a great help for early assessment of drought impacts in

  15. Automation warning system against driver falling asleep in-traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dymov I. S.


    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the development of a new automation recognition and warning system against driver falling asleep in-traffic. The issue of the physical condition control of professional drivers on the voyage has been considered both on the part of efficiency and quality of its determination, and in terms of improving overall road safety. The existing and widely used devices for determining the transition to the stage of sleep of drivers being in-traffic have been analyzed. Their advantages and disadvantages have been detected. It has been established that the main negative factor preventing the mass introduction of pre-existing warning systems is the need to wear one or another monitoring device before starting the movement. Carried out project research work has proposed a complex monitoring of the physical and physiological condition of driving person as a new warning method against falling asleep in-traffic. The proposed variations of algorithmic implementations can be used in long-distance trucks and passenger vehicles. Two different versions of the automatic control status of the driver physical condition have been considered. The first approach has proposed the use of sensors of the biometric parameters of body, pulsus, body temperature, and hands on wheel pressure sensors. The second one has proposed using the tracking cameras. Both for the first and second versions of the automation system a toolset of control devices is being installed inside the vehicle and have no physical, so irritating action on the driver. Software approach for the false operation rejection of the devices has been developed. The paper considers the flow diagrams of the automatic systems and logical structure of analysis and decision-making. The set of impacts intended for driver's awakening has been proposed. The conclusion about the engineering perspectives of the proposed approach of projected automation systems has been made.

  16. Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the U.S. for Warn Early Warning System for Forest Threats (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Norman, Steve; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip


    U.S. forests occupy approx 751 million acres (approx 1/3 of total land). Several abiotic and biotic damage agents disturb, damage, kill, and/or threaten these forests. Regionally extensive forest disturbances can also threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work at finer scales. daily MODIS data provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis, leveraging vegetation phenology. In response, the USFS and NASA began collaborating in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS).

  17. Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change (United States)

    Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.


    Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology

  18. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ce Shang


    Full Text Available Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

  19. DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim


    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the

  20. An Early Warning System for Oil Security in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingsong Wang


    Full Text Available The oil system security in a country or region will affect its sustainable development ability. China’s oil security has risen to the national strategic level. It is urgent to construct an early warning indicator system to reflect the oil security level accurately, as well as to diagnose and assess the oil system status effectively and put forward the corresponding proposals for ensuring oil security. An early warning indicator system of China’s oil system covering 23 sub-indicators from three aspects, i.e., resource security, market security and consumption security, was constructed using the SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions factor analysis method. It shows that China’s oil system safety level has been seriously threatened and is generally declining. However, due to the strong introduction of energy policies and increasing energy utilization technology in recent years, the increasing proportion of new energy, renewable energy and oil substitutes eases the energy security threats. In response to complex oil security issues, the Chinese government needs to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control at the policy level continuously, increase efforts to explore resource reserves, upgrade energy conservation and emission reduction technologies, develop new alternatives for oil products, and reduce the dependence on international oil imports.

  1. The Effect of Sonic Booms on Earthquake Warning Systems (United States)

    Wurman, Gilead; Haering, Edward A, Jr.; Price, Michael J.


    Several aerospace companies are designing quiet supersonic business jets for service over the United States. These aircraft have the potential to increase the occurrence of mild sonic booms across the country. This leads to interest among earthquake warning (EQW) developers and the general seismological community in characterizing the effect of sonic booms on seismic sensors in the field, their potential impact on EQW systems, and means of discriminating their signatures from those of earthquakes. The SonicBREWS project (Sonic Boom Resistant Earthquake Warning Systems) is a collaborative effort between Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. (SWS) and NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. This project aims to evaluate the effects of sonic booms on EQW sensors. The study consists of exposing high-sample-rate (1000 sps) triaxial accelerometers to sonic booms with overpressures ranging from 10 to 600 Pa in the free field and the built environment. The accelerometers record the coupling of the sonic boom to the ground and surrounding structures, while microphones record the acoustic wave above ground near the sensor. Sonic booms are broadband signals with more high-frequency content than earthquakes. Even a 1000 sps accelerometer will produce a significantly aliased record. Thus the observed peak ground velocity is strongly dependent on the sampling rate, and increases as the sampling rate is reduced. At 1000 sps we observe ground velocities that exceed those of P-waves from ML 3 earthquakes at local distances, suggesting that sonic booms are not negligible for EQW applications. We present the results of several experiments conducted under SonicBREWS showing the effects of typical-case low amplitude sonic booms and worst-case high amplitude booms. We show the effects of various sensor placements and sensor array geometries. Finally, we suggest possible avenues for discriminating sonic booms from earthquakes for the purposes of EQW.

  2. Near Real Time Flood Warning System for National Capital Territory of Delhi (United States)

    Goyal, A.; Yadav, H.; Tyagi, H.; Gosain, A. K.


    Extreme floods are common phenomena during Indian Monsoons. The National Capital Territory area of India, Delhi, frequently experiences fluvial as well as pluvial inundation due to its proximity to river Yamuna and poor functioning of its stormwater drainage system. The urban floods result in severe waterlogging and heavy traffic snarls, bringing life in this megapolis to a halt. The city has witnessed six major floods since 1900 and thus its residents are well conscious of potential flood risks but the city still lacks a flood warning system. The flood related risks can be considerably reduced, if not eliminated, by issuing timely warnings and implementing adaptive measures. Therefore, the present study attempts to develop a web based platform that integrates Web-GIS technology and mathematical simulation modelling to provide an effective and reliable early flood warning service for Delhi. The study makes use of India Metorological Department's Doppler radar-derived near real time rainfall estimates of 15 minutes time step. The developed SWMM model has been validated using information from gauges, monitoring sensors and crowd sourcing techniques and utilises capabilities of cloud computing on server side for fast processing. This study also recommends safe evacuation policy and remedial measures for flooding hotspots as part of flood risk management plan. With heightened risk of floods in fast urbanizing areas, this work becomes highly pertinent as flood warning system with adequate lead time can not only save precious lives but can also substantially reduce flood damages.

  3. Dynamic Critical Rainfall-Based Flash Flood Early Warning and Forecasting for Medium-Small Rivers (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Yang, D.; Hu, J.


    China is extremely frequent food disasters hit countries, annual flood season flash floods triggered by rainfall, mudslides, landslides have caused heavy casualties and property losses, not only serious threaten the lives of the masses, but the majority of seriously restricting the mountain hill areas of economic and social development and the people become rich, of building a moderately prosperous society goals. In the next few years, China will focus on prevention and control area in the flash flood disasters initially built "for the surveillance, communications, forecasting, early warning and other non-engineering measure based, non-engineering measures and the combinations of engineering measures," the mitigation system. The latest progresses on global torrential flood early warning and forecasting techniques are reviewed in this paper, and then an early warning and forecasting approach is proposed on the basis of a distributed hydrological model according to dynamic critical rainfall index. This approach has been applied in Suichuanjiang River basin in Jiangxi province, which is expected to provide valuable reference for building a national flash flood early warning and forecasting system as well as control of such flooding.

  4. Early warning systems of financial crises: implementation of a currency crisis model for Uganda


    Heun, Michael; Schlink, Torsten


    The objective of this paper is to implement a prototype of a currency crisis model as part of an early warning system framework for Uganda. The financial systems of developing countries like Uganda are especially vulnerable and therefore robust instruments to predict crises are needed. Our model is based on the signals approach developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). The basic idea of the signals approach is to monitor several indicators that tend ...

  5. An organizational early-warning system for safety, health, and environmental crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrivastava, P.


    Early-warning systems have played an important role in preventing major industrial accidents and technological disasters. These systems record critical operating and performance parameters and raise warnings or alarms if these parameters cross acceptable limits. Most early-warning systems used in hazardous industries focus on the technological system and to a lesser extent on their human operators. However, industrial disasters are caused not only by technological and human failure, but also by organizational, regulatory, infrastructural, and community preparedness failures. Hazardous industries can benefit from the development of early-warning systems that have a broader scope than the core technology. These systems could cover financial, human resource, organizational policies, regulatory, infrastructural, and community-related variables. This paper develops some basic concepts that can help build managerially useful early-warning systems for safety, health, and environmental (SHE) incidents. It identifies variables that should be tracked, the threshold levels for these variables, and possible managerial reactions to warnings

  6. Hybrid Intrusion Forecasting Framework for Early Warning System (United States)

    Kim, Sehun; Shin, Seong-Jun; Kim, Hyunwoo; Kwon, Ki Hoon; Han, Younggoo

    Recently, cyber attacks have become a serious hindrance to the stability of Internet. These attacks exploit interconnectivity of networks, propagate in an instant, and have become more sophisticated and evolutionary. Traditional Internet security systems such as firewalls, IDS and IPS are limited in terms of detecting recent cyber attacks in advance as these systems respond to Internet attacks only after the attacks inflict serious damage. In this paper, we propose a hybrid intrusion forecasting system framework for an early warning system. The proposed system utilizes three types of forecasting methods: time-series analysis, probabilistic modeling, and data mining method. By combining these methods, it is possible to take advantage of the forecasting technique of each while overcoming their drawbacks. Experimental results show that the hybrid intrusion forecasting method outperforms each of three forecasting methods.

  7. Comparison of Expected Crash and Injury Reduction from Production Forward Collision and Lane Departure Warning Systems. (United States)

    Kusano, Kristofer D; Gabler, Hampton C


    The U.S. New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) now tests for forward collision warning (FCW) and lane departure warning (LDW). The design of these warnings differs greatly between vehicles and can result in different real-world field performance in preventing or mitigating the effects of collisions. The objective of this study was to compare the expected number of crashes and injured drivers that could be prevented if all vehicles in the fleet were equipped with the FCW and LDW systems tested under the U.S. NCAP. To predict the potential crashes and serious injury that could be prevented, our approach was to computationally model the U.S. crash population. The models simulated all rear-end and single-vehicle road departure collisions that occurred in a nationally representative crash database (NASS-CDS). A sample of 478 single-vehicle crashes from NASS-CDS 2012 was the basis for 24,822 simulations for LDW. A sample of 1,042 rear-end collisions from NASS-CDS years 1997-2013 was the basis for 7,616 simulations for FCW. For each crash, 2 simulations were performed: (1) without the system present and (2) with the system present. Models of each production safety system were based on 54 model year 2010-2014 vehicles that were evaluated under the NCAP confirmation procedure for LDW and/or FCW. NCAP performed 40 LDW and 45 FCW tests of these vehicles. The design of the FCW systems had a dramatic impact on their potential to prevent crashes and injuries. Between 0 and 67% of crashes and 2 and 69% of moderately to fatally injured drivers in rear-end impacts could have been prevented if all vehicles were equipped with the FCW systems. Earlier warning times resulted in increased benefits. The largest effect on benefits, however, was the lower operating speed threshold of the systems. Systems that only operated at speeds above 20 mph were less than half as effective as those that operated above 5 mph with similar warning times. The production LDW systems could have prevented

  8. False alarms and missed events: the impact and origins of perceived inaccuracy in tornado warning systems. (United States)

    Ripberger, Joseph T; Silva, Carol L; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C; Carlson, Deven E; James, Mark; Herron, Kerry G


    Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow-up question--Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are--in part-a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets (United States)

    Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang


    Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

  10. Space systems for disaster warning, response, and recovery

    CERN Document Server

    Madry, Scott


    This SpringerBrief provides a general overview of the role of satellite applications for disaster mitigation, warning, planning, recovery and response. It covers both the overall role and perspective of the emergency management community as well as the various space applications that support their work. Key insights are provided as to how satellite telecommunications, remote sensing, navigation systems, GIS, and the emerging domain of social media are utilized in the context of emergency management needs and requirements. These systems are now critical in addressing major man-made and natural disasters. International policy and treaties are covered along with various case studies from around the world. These case studies indicate vital lessons that have been learned about how to use space systems more effectively in addressing the so-called “Disaster Cycle.” This book is appropriate for practicing emergency managers, Emergency Management (EM) courses, as well as for those involved in various space applica...

  11. Health warnings promote healthier dietary decision making: Effects of positive versus negative message framing and graphic versus text-based warnings. (United States)

    Rosenblatt, Daniel H; Bode, Stefan; Dixon, Helen; Murawski, Carsten; Summerell, Patrick; Ng, Alyssa; Wakefield, Melanie


    Food product health warnings have been proposed as a potential obesity prevention strategy. This study examined the effects of text-only and text-and-graphic, negatively and positively framed health warnings on dietary choice behavior. In a 2 × 5 mixed experimental design, 96 participants completed a dietary self-control task. After providing health and taste ratings of snack foods, participants completed a baseline measure of dietary self-control, operationalized as participants' frequency of choosing healthy but not tasty items and rejecting unhealthy yet tasty items to consume at the end of the experiment. Participants were then randomly assigned to one of five health warning groups and presented with 10 health warnings of a given form: text-based, negative framing; graphic, negative framing; text, positive framing; graphic, positive framing; or a no warning control. Participants then completed a second dietary decision making session to determine whether health warnings influenced dietary self-control. Linear mixed effects modeling revealed a significant interaction between health warning group and decision stage (pre- and post-health warning presentation) on dietary self-control. Negatively framed graphic health warnings promoted greater dietary self-control than other health warnings. Negatively framed text health warnings and positively framed graphic health warnings promoted greater dietary self-control than positively framed text health warnings and control images, which did not increase dietary self-control. Overall, HWs primed healthier dietary decision making behavior, with negatively framed graphic HWs being most effective. Health warnings have potential to become an important element of obesity prevention. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library (United States)

    Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.


    Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All technical development in TRIDEC is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards applies also to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services: A set of best practices for IT service management is used to align the TEWS software services with the requirements by the Early Warning Centre management by defining Service Level Agreements (SLA) and ensuring appliance. For this, the concept of service lifecycles is adapted for the TEWS domain, which is laid out in the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) by the United Kingdom's Office of Government Commerce (OGC). The cyclic procedures, tasks and checklists described by ITIL are used to establish a baseline to plan, implement, and maintain TEWS service components in the long run. This allows to ensure compliance with given international TEWS standards and to measure improvement of the provided services against a gold-standard.

  13. Multicriteria Early Warning System of Enterprises against the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Korol


    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of the enterprises. In the article author compares the effectiveness of multicriteria early warning system with the traditional discriminant analysis model of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Market. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. Additionally, author has used the macroeconomic variables in developed multicriteria system. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.  

  14. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso


    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  15. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system (United States)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal


    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  16. Designing the upgrade of the Early Warning System in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cindro, M.; Mitic, D.; Stritar, A.


    When designing an upgrade of early warning network for radiological emergencies one has to consider physical criteria as well as technical and financial possibilities, making the system the best possible compromise between the above mentioned aspects. In the case of the Slovenian Early Warning System (EWS) upgrade, the design was even harder because of the need to implement the existing measuring sites into the new scheme. We plan to add 35 new locations with external radiation and meteorology measurements to the 42 already existing sites. In the article we will describe the selection criteria for measuring sites and the requirements for the measuring equipment as well as a discussion of the physical quantities that need to be measured. In addition to gamma dose rate measurements, which are essential for radiological emergencies, meteorological measurements also provide vital information for the assessment of the situation. Especially we describe an additional necessary meteorological equipment which has to be installed. Today's communication technologies offer many possibilities for data transfer from the measuring site to the central data gathering unit and one has to choose the most appropriate one, primarily considering reliability but also cost effectiveness. For that reason new measuring sites will be at the locations already used for meteorological measurements by the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia. The Central Unit (CU) of such a network is the core of the system were all data have to be controlled, analysed and presented to the operator providing him with as much data as possible in a simple and clear fashion. (author)


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.S. Murty


    Full Text Available Canada has coastlines on three of the four oceans on the globe, namely, the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans. The Pacific and Atlantic oceans are connected to the Arctic Ocean in the north, but still they are three distinct oceans, and need three individual tsunami warning systems. Tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are not as well documented as in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. From what is known, tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are rare and probably are small in amplitude. Because of very low population density, around the Canadian Arctic, at present, there is no priority for a tsunami warning system for Arctic Canada. For the Pacific Ocean, a tsunami warning system is in existence since 1948. In at least one sense, the warning aspects of the tsunami warning system for the Pacific coast of Canada, is relatively simple and straight forward, because it involves only the federal government (PSEPC and the provincial government of British Columbia (PEP. For the Atlantic Ocean, A tsunami warning system is now being established. The warning aspects will be some what more complex for eastern Canada, since it not only involves the federal government, but also five provinces, namely, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Quebec. The Alaska tsunami warning center (ATWC in Palmer, Alaska, provides tsunami warnings for both Pacific and Atlantic Canada.

  18. A holistic approach to SIM platform and its application to early-warning satellite system (United States)

    Sun, Fuyu; Zhou, Jianping; Xu, Zheyao


    This study proposes a new simulation platform named Simulation Integrated Management (SIM) for the analysis of parallel and distributed systems. The platform eases the process of designing and testing both applications and architectures. The main characteristics of SIM are flexibility, scalability, and expandability. To improve the efficiency of project development, new models of early-warning satellite system were designed based on the SIM platform. Finally, through a series of experiments, the correctness of SIM platform and the aforementioned early-warning satellite models was validated, and the systematical analyses for the orbital determination precision of the ballistic missile during its entire flight process were presented, as well as the deviation of the launch/landing point. Furthermore, the causes of deviation and prevention methods will be fully explained. The simulation platform and the models will lay the foundations for further validations of autonomy technology in space attack-defense architecture research.

  19. Development of a Low Cost Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan (United States)

    Wu, Y. M.


    The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.

  20. Armenian earthquake WWER-440 NNPs and Turkish early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bektur, Y.


    On December 7, 1988 a severe earthquake occurred at Spitak, approximately 90-100 km far from the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant in Yerivan. Another one named Vrancea earthquake which occurred on 4 March, 1977. During this earthquake, the Kozloduj NPP (Bulgaria) was strongly damaged. Until this event, seismic loadings had received scant attention in the siting of WWER's. However after the Kozlodui damage Soviet designers changed their opinion. In this study, the seismicity of the Black Sea region and eastern Europe, seismic requirements for WWER's and the changes in plants for which to resistant against to the earthquake are given. During the earthquake radiation levels obtained by Turkish early warning system is also given

  1. Rapid earthquake magnitude determination for Vrancea early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Alexandru


    Due to the huge amount of recorded data, an automatic procedure was developed and used to test different methods to rapidly evaluate earthquake magnitude from the first seconds of the P wave. In order to test all the algorithms involved in detection and rapid earthquake magnitude estimation, several tests were performed, in order to avoid false alarms. A special detection algorithm was developed, that is based on the classical STA/LTA algorithm and tuned for early warning purpose. A method to rapidly estimate magnitude in 4 seconds from detection of P wave in the epicenter is proposed. The method was tested on al recorded data, and the magnitude error determination is acceptable taking into account that it is computed from only 3 stations in a very short time interval. (author)

  2. Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert System: Testing and certification platform (United States)

    Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kohler, Monica D.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Andrews, Jennifer; Meier, Men-Andrin; Ahmad, Mohammad; Henson, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Smith, Deborah


    Earthquake early warning systems provide warnings to end users of incoming moderate to strong ground shaking from earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. An essential aspect of the earthquake early warning system is the development of a framework to test modifications to code to ensure functionality and assess performance. In 2016, a Testing and Certification Platform (TCP) was included in the development of the Production Prototype version of ShakeAlert. The purpose of the TCP is to evaluate the robustness of candidate code that is proposed for deployment on ShakeAlert Production Prototype servers. TCP consists of two main components: a real‐time in situ test that replicates the real‐time production system and an offline playback system to replay test suites. The real‐time tests of system performance assess code optimization and stability. The offline tests comprise a stress test of candidate code to assess if the code is production ready. The test suite includes over 120 events including local, regional, and teleseismic historic earthquakes, recentering and calibration events, and other anomalous and potentially problematic signals. Two assessments of alert performance are conducted. First, point‐source assessments are undertaken to compare magnitude, epicentral location, and origin time with the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, as well as to evaluate alert latency. Second, we describe assessment of the quality of ground‐motion predictions at end‐user sites by comparing predicted shaking intensities to ShakeMaps for historic events and implement a threshold‐based approach that assesses how often end users initiate the appropriate action, based on their ground‐shaking threshold. TCP has been developed to be a convenient streamlined procedure for objectively testing algorithms, and it has

  3. EURADOS intercomparison 2006 to harmonise European early warning dosimetry systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dombrowski, H.; Neumaier, S.; Thompson, I. M. G.; Wissmann, F.


    In 2006, the European Radiation Dosimetry (EURADOS) Working Group on Environmental Radiation Monitoring (WG3) organised a third European intercomparison of dosimetry systems operated in national early warning networks. Similar to the intercomparisons in 1999 and 2002, the main aim of this exercise was to support the process of harmonisation of area monitoring in Europe by providing the network operators with basic information on the calibration and performance of their dosimetry systems. In order to characterise these systems, their following basic parameters were investigated: the response to terrestrial and cosmic radiation, the detectors' inherent background, the response at low dose rates, the energy dependence of the response as well as the sensitivity of the detector systems to small changes of the dose rate in a natural environmental radiation field. In the 2006 EURADOS intercomparison, scientists from seven countries participated to study the characteristics of 11 detector systems. All results are presented in terms of the operational quantity ambient dose equivalent, H * (10). The advent of this quantity has caused the development of new detector systems for area monitoring. Some of these new systems participated in a EURADOS intercomparison for the first time. The results are consistently presented together with uncertainties so that statistical effects can be distinguished from real detector features, which improves the interpretation of the results. By using the results of this intercomparison, some detectors were re-calibrated. The achievable improvements concerning harmonisation in dose-rate measurements in the natural environment are discussed. (authors)

  4. Open Source Seismic Software in NOAA's Next Generation Tsunami Warning System (United States)

    Hellman, S. B.; Baker, B. I.; Hagerty, M. T.; Leifer, J. M.; Lisowski, S.; Thies, D. A.; Donnelly, B. K.; Griffith, F. P.


    The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a project spearheaded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to update the United States' Tsunami Warning System software currently employed at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (Eva Beach, Hawaii) and the National Tsunami Warning Center (Palmer, Alaska). This entirely open source software project will integrate various seismic processing utilities with the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's core software, AWIPS2. For the real-time and near real-time seismic processing aspect of this project, NOAA has elected to integrate the open source portions of GFZ's SeisComP 3 (SC3) processing system into AWIPS2. To provide for better tsunami threat assessments we are developing open source tools for magnitude estimations (e.g., moment magnitude, energy magnitude, surface wave magnitude), detection of slow earthquakes with the Theta discriminant, moment tensor inversions (e.g. W-phase and teleseismic body waves), finite fault inversions, and array processing. With our reliance on common data formats such as QuakeML and seismic community standard messaging systems, all new facilities introduced into AWIPS2 and SC3 will be available as stand-alone tools or could be easily integrated into other real time seismic monitoring systems such as Earthworm, Antelope, etc. Additionally, we have developed a template based design paradigm so that the developer or scientist can efficiently create upgrades, replacements, and/or new metrics to the seismic data processing with only a cursory knowledge of the underlying SC3.

  5. Real-Time Target Motion Animation for Missile Warning System Testing (United States)


    T. Perkins, R. Sundberg, J. Cordell, Z. Tun , and M. Owen, Real-time Target Motion Animation for Missile Warning System Testing, Proc. SPIE Vol 6208...Z39-18 Real-time target motion animation for missile warning system testing Timothy Perkins*a, Robert Sundberga, John Cordellb, Zaw Tunb, Mark

  6. Advanced driver assistance systems: Using multimodal redundant warnings to enhance road safety. (United States)

    Biondi, Francesco; Strayer, David L; Rossi, Riccardo; Gastaldi, Massimiliano; Mulatti, Claudio


    This study investigated whether multimodal redundant warnings presented by advanced assistance systems reduce brake response times. Warnings presented by assistance systems are designed to assist drivers by informing them that evasive driving maneuvers are needed in order to avoid a potential accident. If these warnings are poorly designed, they may distract drivers, slow their responses, and reduce road safety. In two experiments, participants drove a simulated vehicle equipped with a forward collision avoidance system. Auditory, vibrotactile, and multimodal warnings were presented when the time to collision was shorter than five seconds. The effects of these warnings were investigated with participants performing a concurrent cell phone conversation (Exp. 1) or driving in high-density traffic (Exp. 2). Braking times and subjective workload were measured. Multimodal redundant warnings elicited faster braking reaction times. These warnings were found to be effective even when talking on a cell phone (Exp. 1) or driving in dense traffic (Exp. 2). Multimodal warnings produced higher ratings of urgency, but ratings of frustration did not increase compared to other warnings. Findings obtained in these two experiments are important given that faster braking responses may reduce the potential for a collision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Impact of a warning CPOE system on the inappropriate pill splitting of prescribed medications in outpatients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Chen Hsu

    Full Text Available Prescribing inappropriate pill splitting is not rare in clinical practice. To reduce inappropriate pill splitting, we developed an automatic warning system linked to a computerized physician order entry (CPOE system for special oral formulation drugs in outpatient settings. We examined the impact of the warning system on inappropriate prescribing of pill splitting and assess prescribers' responses to the warnings.Drugs with extended-release or enteric-coated formulations that were not originally intended to be split were recognized as "special oral formulations". A hard-stop system which could examine non-integer doses of drugs with special oral formulations, provide warnings to interrupt inappropriate prescriptions was integrated in CPOE in a medical center since June 2010. We designed an intervention study to compare the inappropriate splitting before and after the implementation of the warning system (baseline period 2010 January to May vs. intervention period 2010 June to 2011 August. During the intervention period, prescription changes in response to a warning were logged and analyzed.A total of 470,611 prescribed drug items with 34 different drugs with special oral formulations were prescribed in the study period. During the 15-month intervention period, 909 warnings for 26 different drugs were triggered among 354,523 prescribed drug items with special oral formulations. The warning rate of inappropriate splitting in the late intervention period was lower than those in baseline period (0.16% vs. 0.61%, incidence rate ratio 0.27, 95% CI 0.23-0.31, P<0.001. In respond to warnings, physicians had to make adjustments, of which the majority was changing to an unsplit pill (72.9%.The interruptive warning system could avoid the prescriptions with inappropriate pill splitting. Accordingly, physicians changed their behavior of prescribing special oral formulations regarding inappropriate pill splitting. We suggest the establishment of such system

  8. Operational Forecasting and Warning systems for Coastal hazards in Korea (United States)

    Park, Kwang-Soon; Kwon, Jae-Il; Kim, Jin-Ah; Heo, Ki-Young; Jun, Kicheon


    Coastal hazards caused by both Mother Nature and humans cost tremendous social, economic and environmental damages. To mitigate these damages many countries have been running the operational forecasting or warning systems. Since 2009 Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) has been developed by the leading of Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) in Korea and KOOS has been operated in 2012. KOOS is consists of several operational modules of numerical models and real-time observations and produces the basic forecasting variables such as winds, tides, waves, currents, temperature and salinity and so on. In practical application systems include storm surges, oil spills, and search and rescue prediction models. In particular, abnormal high waves (swell-like high-height waves) have occurred in the East coast of Korea peninsula during winter season owing to the local meteorological condition over the East Sea, causing property damages and the loss of human lives. In order to improve wave forecast accuracy even very local wave characteristics, numerical wave modeling system using SWAN is established with data assimilation module using 4D-EnKF and sensitivity test has been conducted. During the typhoon period for the prediction of sever waves and the decision making support system for evacuation of the ships, a high-resolution wave forecasting system has been established and calibrated.

  9. Application of the Haines Index in the fire warning system (United States)

    Kalin, Lovro; Marija, Mokoric; Tomislav, Kozaric


    Croatia, as all Mediterranean countries, is strongly affected by large wildfires, particularly in the coastal region. In the last two decades the number and intensity of fires has been significantly increased, which is unanimously associated with climate change, e.g. global warming. More extreme fires are observed, and the fire-fighting season has been expanded to June and September. The meteorological support for fire protection and planning is therefore even more important. At the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia a comprehensive monitoring and warning system has been established. It includes standard components, such as short term forecast of Fire Weather Index (FWI), but long range forecast as well. However, due to more frequent hot and dry seasons, FWI index often does not provide additional information of extremely high fire danger, since it regularly takes the highest values for long periods. Therefore the additional tools have been investigated. One of widely used meteorological products is the Haines index (HI). It provides information of potential fire growth, taking into account only the vertical instability of the atmosphere, and not the state of the fuel. Several analyses and studies carried out at the Service confirmed the correlation of high HI values with large and extreme fires. The Haines index forecast has been used at the Service for several years, employing European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) global prediction model, as well as the limited-area Aladin model. The verification results show that these forecast are reliable, when compared to radiosonde measurements. All these results provided the introduction of the additional fire warnings, that are issued by the Service's Forecast Department.

  10. Near real-time GPS applications for tsunami early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Falck


    Full Text Available GPS (Global Positioning System technology is widely used for positioning applications. Many of them have high requirements with respect to precision, reliability or fast product delivery, but usually not all at the same time as it is the case for early warning applications. The tasks for the GPS-based components within the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009 are to support the determination of sea levels (measured onshore and offshore and to detect co-seismic land mass displacements with the lowest possible latency (design goal: first reliable results after 5 min. The completed system was designed to fulfil these tasks in near real-time, rather than for scientific research requirements. The obtained data products (movements of GPS antennas are supporting the warning process in different ways. The measurements from GPS instruments on buoys allow the earliest possible detection or confirmation of tsunami waves on the ocean. Onshore GPS measurements are made collocated with tide gauges or seismological stations and give information about co-seismic land mass movements as recorded, e.g., during the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 2004 (Subarya et al., 2006. This information is important to separate tsunami-caused sea height movements from apparent sea height changes at tide gauge locations (sensor station movement and also as additional information about earthquakes' mechanisms, as this is an essential information to predict a tsunami (Sobolev et al., 2007.

    This article gives an end-to-end overview of the GITEWS GPS-component system, from the GPS sensors (GPS receiver with GPS antenna and auxiliary systems, either onshore or offshore to the early warning centre displays. We describe how the GPS sensors have been installed, how they are operated and the methods used to collect, transfer and process the GPS data in near real-time. This includes the sensor system design, the communication

  11. Perancangan Prototype Early Warning System pada Kontrol On/Off Belt Conveyor Menggunakan PLC Siemens S7-300

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taufik Taufik


    Full Text Available Nowadays, automation system become an important aspect of the manufacturing process because could make integration manufacturing process on it more effective and more efficient. PLC or Programmable Logic Controller is one kind of automation system. Many industries use PLC as automation control device in the manufacturing process to control all kind of process. For example at transportation process of coals in generator industry. Coals could be burned because main elements of coals are carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Base on this prototype early warning system design, we get the result if sensor thermocouple detects temperature larger than setpoint temperature (it is 2000C, then PLC will give an order to shut down the output, that is a belt conveyor. The result of this prototype design could use at coals transportation as an early warning system. The design of prototype early warning system could detect and prevent fire because of the consequence of burned coals until spreading of fire could be avoided.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronak Shah


    Full Text Available This work precisely evaluates whether browser security warnings are as ineffective as proposed by popular sentiments and past writings. This research used different kinds of Android mobile browsers as well as desktop browsers to evaluate security warnings. Security experts and developers should give emphasis on making a user aware of security warnings and should not neglect aim of communicating this to users. Security experts and system architects should emphasis the goal of communicating security information to end users. In most of the browsers, security warnings are not emphasized, and browsers simply do not show warnings, or there are a number of ways to hide those warnings of malicious sites. This work precisely finds that how inconsistent browsers really are in prompting security warnings. In particular, majority of the modern mobile web browsers are vulnerable to these security threats. We find inconsistency in SSL warnings among web browsers. Based on this work, we make recommendations for warning designers and researchers.

  13. Warning system based on theoretical-experimental study of dispersion of soluble pollutants in rivers Sistema de alerta com base em estudo teórico-experimental de dispersão de poluentes solúveis em rios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso B. de M. Ribeiro


    Full Text Available Information about capacity of transport and dispersion of soluble pollutants in natural streams are important in the management of water resources, especially in planning preventive measures to minimize the problems caused by accidental or intentional waste, in public health and economic activities that depend on the use of water. Considering this importance, this study aimed to develop a warning system for rivers, based on experimental techniques using tracers and analytical equations of one-dimensional transport of soluble pollutants conservative, to subsidizing the decision-making in the management of water resources. The system was development in JAVA programming language and MySQL database can predict the travel time of pollutants clouds from a point of eviction and graphically displays the temporal distribution of concentrations of passage clouds, in a particular location, downstream from the point of its launch.Informações sobre a capacidade de transporte e dispersão de poluentes solúveis em cursos de água naturais são importantes no gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos, principalmente no planejamento preventivo de medidas que visem a minimizar problemas à saúde pública e às atividades econômicas que dependem do uso da água, ocasionados por despejos acidentais ou intencionais. Considerando tal importância, este trabalho teve como objetivo desenvolver um sistema de alerta para rios, com base em resultados experimentais, utilizando técnicas de traçadores e equações analíticas de transporte unidimensional de poluentes solúveis conservativos, visando a subsidiar a tomada de decisão no gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos. O sistema desenvolvido em linguagem de programação JAVA e banco de dados MySQL permite prever o tempo de percurso da nuvem de poluentes a partir de um ponto de despejo de um poluente e apresenta, graficamente, a distribuição temporal de concentrações da passagem da nuvem, em um determinado local,

  14. Design and evaluation of warning systems: application to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pe Benito-Claudio, C.


    This study starts by defining and explaining key concepts about warning, both as a process and a system. Thereafter, it presents a quantitative, probabilistic, and decision-oriented methodology for designing and evaluating a warning system. It illustrates the methodology for the case of rare, controllable, and potentially disastrous technological events, such as accidents in nuclear power plants. The methodology covers and links the three principal components of a warning system - signal (which is mainly technical), warning dissemination, and warning response (which are mainly social) - thereby allowing the relative evaluation of technological and social measures for reducing risks. Analytical principles and techniques of risk and decision analyses are applied. It defines a probabilistic performance measure to characterize each component of a warning system, and a value measure to assess the overall effectiveness of the system. An important aspect of this work is the integration, into one analytical model, of the results of engineering studies, such as probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants, and of empirical findings on human response to warning in sociological research. The models, calculations, and sensitivity analyses are done with influence diagrams that are both intuitive and mathematical. This work puts particular emphasis on the study of behavioral response of individuals to warning

  15. Application of a multi-channel system for continuous monitoring and an early warning system. (United States)

    Lee, J H; Song, C H; Kim, B C; Gu, M B


    A multi-channel continuous toxicity monitoring system developed in our laboratory, based on two-stage mini-bioreactors, was successfully implemented in the form of computer-based data acquisition. The multi-channel system consists of a series of a two-stage minibioreactor systems connected by a fiber optic probe to a luminometer, and uses genetically engineered bioluminescent bacteria for the detection of the potential toxicity from the soluble chemicals. This system can be stably and continuously operated due to the separation of the culture reactor from the test reactor and accomplish easy and long-term monitoring without system shut down by abrupt inflows of severe polluting chemicals. Four different recombinant bioluminescent bacteria were used in different channels so that the modes of the samples toxicities can be reasonably identified and evaluated based upon the response signature of each channel. The bioluminescent signatures were delivered from four channels by switching one at once, while the data is automatically logged to an IBM compatible computer. We also achieved the enhancement of the system through the manipulation of the dilution rate and the use of thermo-lux fusion strains. Finally, this system is now being implemented to a drinking water reservoir and river for remote sensing as an early warning system.

  16. Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τ c and P d method for earthquake early warning systems (United States)

    Jin, Xing; Zhang, Hongcai; Li, Jun; Wei, Yongxiang; Ma, Qiang


    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ c and P d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.

  17. Experiences from site-specific landslide early warning systems (United States)

    Michoud, C.; Bazin, S.; Blikra, L. H.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.


    Landslide early warning systems (EWSs) have to be implemented in areas with large risk for populations or infrastructures when classical structural remediation measures cannot be set up. This paper aims to gather experiences of existing landslide EWSs, with a special focus on practical requirements (e.g., alarm threshold values have to take into account the smallest detectable signal levels of deployed sensors before being established) and specific issues when dealing with system implementations. Within the framework of the SafeLand European project, a questionnaire was sent to about one-hundred institutions in charge of landslide management. Finally, we interpreted answers from experts belonging to 14 operational units related to 23 monitored landslides. Although no standard requirements exist for designing and operating EWSs, this review highlights some key elements, such as the importance of pre-investigation work, the redundancy and robustness of monitoring systems, the establishment of different scenarios adapted to gradual increasing of alert levels, and the necessity of confidence and trust between local populations and scientists. Moreover, it also confirms the need to improve our capabilities for failure forecasting, monitoring techniques and integration of water processes into landslide conceptual models.

  18. Evaluating the effectiveness of warning systems for nuclear power plant emergencies: criteria and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sorensen, J.H.


    The accident at Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant in 1979 was an emergency management disaster. Chief among the problems was ineffective public warning and communications. While it is difficult to assign blame for that condition to any given party or determine if it was due to unique situational factors, the failure led to fairly significant regulatory changes in the arena of public warning and notification. These changes are intended to avoid the problems that arose during the TMI accident. This chapter reviews these regulations and suggests an alternative set of criteria for evaluating warning systems. The criteria are used to assess the effectiveness of the warning system at the Ft. St. Vrain nuclear power plant in Colorado. The paper concludes with some discussion of the lessons learned from the TMI experience as they apply to warning systems for all nuclear generating stations

  19. Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor (United States)

    Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.


    Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.

  20. Effect of audio in-vehicle red light-running warning message on driving behavior based on a driving simulator experiment. (United States)

    Yan, Xuedong; Liu, Yang; Xu, Yongcun


    Drivers' incorrect decisions of crossing signalized intersections at the onset of the yellow change may lead to red light running (RLR), and RLR crashes result in substantial numbers of severe injuries and property damage. In recent years, some Intelligent Transport System (ITS) concepts have focused on reducing RLR by alerting drivers that they are about to violate the signal. The objective of this study is to conduct an experimental investigation on the effectiveness of the red light violation warning system using a voice message. In this study, the prototype concept of the RLR audio warning system was modeled and tested in a high-fidelity driving simulator. According to the concept, when a vehicle is approaching an intersection at the onset of yellow and the time to the intersection is longer than the yellow interval, the in-vehicle warning system can activate the following audio message "The red light is impending. Please decelerate!" The intent of the warning design is to encourage drivers who cannot clear an intersection during the yellow change interval to stop at the intersection. The experimental results showed that the warning message could decrease red light running violations by 84.3 percent. Based on the logistic regression analyses, drivers without a warning were about 86 times more likely to make go decisions at the onset of yellow and about 15 times more likely to run red lights than those with a warning. Additionally, it was found that the audio warning message could significantly reduce RLR severity because the RLR drivers' red-entry times without a warning were longer than those with a warning. This driving simulator study showed a promising effect of the audio in-vehicle warning message on reducing RLR violations and crashes. It is worthwhile to further develop the proposed technology in field applications.

  1. ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast (United States)

    Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.


    Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.

  2. The GNSS-based component for the new Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS (United States)

    Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.; Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Hoeberechts, J.; Rothacher, M.


    Introduction Nowadays GNSS technologies are used for a large variety of precise positioning applications. The accuracy can reach the mm level depending on the data analysis methods. GNSS technologies thus offer a high potential to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes and of tsunami waves on the ocean by GNSS instruments on a buoy. Although GNSS-based precise positioning is a standard method, it is not yet common to apply this technique under tight time constraints and, hence, in the absence of precise satellite orbits and clocks. The new developed GNSS-based component utilises on- and offshore measured GNSS data and is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG, Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Motivation After the Tsunami event of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) to develop a tsunami early warning system for Indonesia. The GFZ Potsdam (German Research Centre for Geosciences) as the consortial leader of GITEWS also covers several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of the GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component. Brief system description The system covers all aspects from sensor stations with new developed hard- and software designs, manufacturing and installation of stations, real-time data transfer issues, a new developed automatic near real-time data processing and a graphical user interface for early warning centre operators including training on the system. GNSS sensors are installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre where they are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. For

  3. Enhancing Famine Early Warning Systems with Improved Forecasts, Satellite Observations and Hydrologic Simulations (United States)

    Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J.; Thiaw, W. M.; Hoell, A.; Korecha, D.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Magadzire, T.; Novella, N.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Robjohn, M.; Pomposi, C.; Galu, G.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Harrison, L.; Davenport, F.; Husak, G. J.; Endalkachew, E.


    Drought early warning science, in support of famine prevention, is a rapidly advancing field that is helping to save lives and livelihoods. In 2015-2017, a series of extreme droughts afflicted Ethiopia, Southern Africa, Eastern Africa in OND and Eastern Africa in MAM, pushing more than 50 million people into severe food insecurity. Improved drought forecasts and monitoring tools, however, helped motivate and target large and effective humanitarian responses. Here we describe new science being developed by a long-established early warning system - the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. FEWS NET research is advancing rapidly on several fronts, providing better climate forecasts and more effective drought monitoring tools that are being used to support enhanced famine early warning. We explore the philosophy and science underlying these successes, suggesting that a modal view of climate change can support enhanced seasonal prediction. Under this modal perspective, warming of the tropical oceans may interact with natural modes of variability, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, to enhance Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature gradients during both El Niño and La Niña-like climate states. Using empirical data and climate change simulations, we suggest that a sequence of droughts may commence in northern Ethiopia and Southern Africa with the advent of a moderate-to-strong El Niño, and then continue with La Niña/West Pacific related droughts in equatorial eastern East Africa. Scientifically, we show that a new hybrid statistical-dynamic precipitation forecast system, the FEWS NET Integrated Forecast System (FIFS), based on reformulations of the Global Ensemble Forecast System weather forecasts and National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal climate predictions, can effectively anticipate recent East and Southern African drought events. Using cross-validation, we

  4. CISN ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Monitoring Tools (United States)

    Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.


    CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.

  5. Drunk driving warning system (DDWS). Volume 1, System concept and description (United States)


    The Drunk Driving Warning System (DDWS) is a vehicle-mounted device for testing driver impairment and activating alarms. The driver must pass a steering competency test in order to drive the car in a normal manner. The emergency flasher system operat...

  6. The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project (United States)

    Mandl, Daniel; Frye, Stuart; Cappelaere, Pat; Sohlberg, Robert; Handy, Matthew; Grossman, Robert


    Over the past year few years, an international collaboration has developed a pilot project under the auspices of Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Disasters team. The overall team consists of civilian satellite agencies. For this pilot effort, the development team consists of NASA, Canadian Space Agency, Univ. of Maryland, Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Ukraine Space Research Institute and Joint Research Center(JRC) for European Commission. This development team collaborates with regional , national and international agencies to deliver end-to-end disaster coverage. In particular, the team in collaborating on this effort with the Namibia Department of Hydrology to begin in Namibia . However, the ultimate goal is to expand the functionality to provide early warning over the South Africa region. The initial collaboration was initiated by United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs and CEOS Working Group for Information Systems and Services (WGISS). The initial driver was to demonstrate international interoperability using various space agency sensors and models along with regional in-situ ground sensors. In 2010, the team created a preliminary semi-manual system to demonstrate moving and combining key data streams and delivering the data to the Namibia Department of Hydrology during their flood season which typically is January through April. In this pilot, a variety of moderate resolution and high resolution satellite flood imagery was rapidly delivered and used in conjunction with flood predictive models in Namibia. This was collected in conjunction with ground measurements and was used to examine how to create a customized flood early warning system. During the first year, the team made use of SensorWeb technology to gather various sensor data which was used to monitor flood waves traveling down basins originating in Angola, but eventually flooding villages in Namibia. The team made use of standardized interfaces such as those articulated

  7. Geodetic Finite-Fault-based Earthquake Early Warning Performance for Great Earthquakes Worldwide (United States)

    Ruhl, C. J.; Melgar, D.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.


    GNSS-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms estimate fault-finiteness and unsaturated moment magnitude for the largest, most damaging earthquakes. Because large events are infrequent, algorithms are not regularly exercised and insufficiently tested on few available datasets. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a GNSS-based finite-fault algorithm developed as part of the ShakeAlert EEW system in the western US. Performance evaluations using synthetic earthquakes offshore Cascadia showed that G-larmS satisfactorily recovers magnitude and fault length, providing useful alerts 30-40 s after origin time and timely warnings of ground motion for onshore urban areas. An end-to-end test of the ShakeAlert system demonstrated the need for GNSS data to accurately estimate ground motions in real-time. We replay real data from several subduction-zone earthquakes worldwide to demonstrate the value of GNSS-based EEW for the largest, most damaging events. We compare predicted ground acceleration (PGA) from first-alert-solutions with those recorded in major urban areas. In addition, where applicable, we compare observed tsunami heights to those predicted from the G-larmS solutions. We show that finite-fault inversion based on GNSS-data is essential to achieving the goals of EEW.

  8. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald


    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are

  9. A Novel Early Warning System Based on a Sediment Microbial Fuel Cell for In Situ and Real Time Hexavalent Chromium Detection in Industrial Wastewater. (United States)

    Zhao, Shuai; Liu, Pu; Niu, Yongyan; Chen, Zhengjun; Khan, Aman; Zhang, Pengyun; Li, Xiangkai


    Hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) is a well-known toxic heavy metal in industrial wastewater, but in situ and real time monitoring cannot be achieved by current methods used during industrial wastewater treatment processes. In this study, a Sediment Microbial Fuel Cell (SMFC) was used as a biosensor for in situ real-time monitoring of Cr(VI), which was the organic substrate is oxidized in the anode and Cr(VI) is reduced at the cathode simultaneously. The pH 6.4 and temperature 25 °C were optimal conditions for the operation. Under the optimal conditions, linearity (R² = 0.9935) of the generated voltage was observed in the Cr(VI) concentration range from 0.2 to 0.7 mg/L. The system showed high specificity for Cr(VI), as other co-existing ions such as Cu 2+ , Zn 2+ , and Pb 2+ did not interfere with Cr(VI) detection. In addition, when the sediment MFC-based biosensor was applied for measuring Cr(VI) in actual wastewater samples, a low deviation (real time in situ detection of Cr(VI) in industrial wastewaters.

  10. Citizen Science to Support Community-based Flood Early Warning and Resilience Building (United States)

    Paul, J. D.; Buytaert, W.; Allen, S.; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Bhusal, J.; Cieslik, K.; Clark, J.; Dewulf, A.; Dhital, M. R.; Hannah, D. M.; Liu, W.; Nayaval, J. L.; Schiller, A.; Smith, P. J.; Stoffel, M.; Supper, R.


    In Disaster Risk Management, an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments towards more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Combined with technologies for robust and low-cost sensor networks, a citizen science approach has recently emerged as a promising direction in the provision of extensive, real-time information for flood early warning systems. Here we present the framework and initial results of a major new international project, Landslide EVO, aimed at increasing local resilience against hydrologically induced disasters in western Nepal by exploiting participatory approaches to knowledge generation and risk governance. We identify three major technological developments that strongly support our approach to flood early warning and resilience building in Nepal. First, distributed sensor networks, participatory monitoring, and citizen science hold great promise in complementing official monitoring networks and remote sensing by generating site-specific information with local buy-in, especially in data-scarce regions. Secondly, the emergence of open source, cloud-based risk analysis platforms supports the construction of a modular, distributed, and potentially decentralised data processing workflow. Finally, linking data analysis platforms to social computer networks and ICT (e.g. mobile phones, tablets) allows tailored interfaces and people-centred decision- and policy-support systems to be built. Our proposition is that maximum impact is created if end-users are involved not only in data collection, but also over the entire project life-cycle, including the analysis and provision of results. In this context, citizen science complements more traditional knowledge generation practices, and also enhances multi-directional information provision, risk management, early-warning systems and local resilience building.

  11. Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments (United States)

    Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem


    of the earth flow site will be monitored by differential GPS to get high precision information on displacements of marked points. Photogrammtetry based on octocopter surveys will provide spatial information on movement patterns. A similar approach will be followed for the debris flow catchment. Here, the focus lies on a monitoring of the landslide failures in the source area which prepares the material for subsequent debris flow transport. In addition to the methods already mentioned, repeated terrestrial laserscanning campaigns will be used to monitor geomorphological changes at all sites. All important data, which can be single measurements, episodic or continuous monitoring data for a given point (e.g. rainfall, inclination) or of spatial character (e.g. LiDAR measurements), are collected and analysed on an external server. Automatic data analysis methods, such as progressive failure analysis, are carried out automatically based on field measurements. The data and results from all monitoring sites are visualised on a web-based platform which enables registered users to analyse the respective information in near-real-time. Moreover, thresholds can be determined which trigger automated warning messages to the involved scientists if thresholds are exceeded by field measurements. The described system will enable scientists and decision-makers to access the latest data from the monitoring systems. Automatic alarms are raised when thresholds are exceeded to inform them about potentially hazardous changes. Thereby, a more efficient hazard management and early warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, rockfall, debris flow, earth flow, monitoring, early warning system.

  12. Evolution of an Early Illness Warning System to Monitor Frail Elders in Independent Living

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory L. Alexander


    Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of an early illness warning system used by an interdisciplinary team composed of clinicians and engineers in an independent living facility. The early illness warning system consists of algorithms which analyze resident activity patterns obtained from sensors embedded in residents' apartments. The engineers designed an automated reasoning system to generate clinically relevant alerts which are sent to clinicians when significant changes occur in the sensor data, for example declining activity levels. During January 2010 through July 2010, clinicians and engineers conducted weekly iterative review cycles of the early illness warning system to discuss concerns about the functionality of the warning system, to recommend solutions for the concerns, and to evaluate the implementation of the solutions. A total of 45 concerns were reviewed during this period. Iterative reviews resulted in greater efficiencies and satisfaction for clinician users who were monitoring elder activity patterns.

  13. Disaster warning system: Satellite feasibility and comparison with terrestrial systems. Volume 1: Executive summary (United States)

    Spoor, J. H.; Hodge, W. H.; Fluk, M. J.; Bamford, T. F.


    The Disaster Warning System (DWS) is a conceptual system which will provide the National Weather Service (NWS) with communication services in the 1980s to help minimize losses caused by natural disasters. The object of this study is a comparative analysis between a terrestrial DWS and a satellite DWS. Baseline systems satisfying the NOAA requirements were synthesized in sufficient detail so that a comparison could be made in terms of performance and cost. The cost of both baseline systems is dominated by the disaster warning and spotter reporting functions. An effort was undertaken to reduce system cost through lower-capacity alternative systems generated by modifying the baseline systems. By reducing the number of required channels and modifying the spotter reporting techniques, alternative satellite systems were synthesized. A terrestrial alternative with the coverage reduced to an estimated 95 percent of the population was considered.

  14. Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico (United States)

    Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.


    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  15. Emergency Communications: The Emergency Alert System (EAS) and All-Hazard Warnings

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Moore, Linda K; Reese, Shawn


    ... tested. Much has been accomplished in recent years but the current hodgepodge of warning and alert systems is inadequate for fully alerting the public about terrorist attacks or natural disasters...

  16. Criteria for evaluating the condition of a tropical cyclone warning system. (United States)

    Parker, D


    This paper evaluates the condition (i.e. health) of a tropical cyclone warning system (TCWS) during a 'quiet period' between infrequent intense cyclones. Capacity to make pre-disaster evaluations is important--disaster warning systems need to be in sound condition before, not after, disaster. The research--part of the UK's International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction Flagship Programme--focuses upon an evaluatory method first used on flood warning systems. The Criteria-development Matrix comprises social, organisational and institutional criteria by which a TCWS may be assessed using a five-stage development scale. This method is used to evaluate Mauritius's TCWS using in-depth interview data. Ways to enhance the method and apply it to other disaster warning systems are discussed. The TCWS in Mauritius is a relatively sound one from which others can learn. Weaknesses requiring attention for Mauritius's TCWS to progress to an advanced level of development are identified.

  17. Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought (United States)

    Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.


    By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

  18. A Prototype Flood Early Warning SensorWeb System for Namibia (United States)

    Sohlberg, R. A.; Mandl, D.; Frye, S. W.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Szarzynski, J.; Policelli, F.; van Langenhove, G.


    During the past two years, there have been extensive floods in the country of Namibia, Africa which have affected up to a quarter of the population. Via a collaboration between a group funded by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) at NASA that has been performing various SensorWeb prototyping activities for disasters, the Department of Hydrology in Namibia and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) , experiments were conducted on how to apply various satellite resources integrated into a SensorWeb architecture along with in-situ sensors such as river gauges and rain gauges into a flood early warning system. The SensorWeb includes a global flood model and a higher resolution basin specific flood model. Furthermore, flood extent and status is monitored by optical and radar types of satellites and integrated via some automation. We have taken a practical approach to find out how to create a working system by selectively using the components that provide good results. The vision for the future is to combine this with the country side dwelling unit data base to create risk maps that provide specific warnings to houses within high risk areas based on near term predictions. This presentation will show some of the highlights of the effort thus far plus our future plans.

  19. Implementation of a Seismic Early Warning System in Portugal Mainland (United States)

    Madureira, Guilherme; Carrilho, Fernando


    Portugal mainland is located near the border between the Eurasian and Nubian plates, whose interaction is the main responsible for a significant seismic activity in the area, with historical occurrence of several catastrophic events (e.g. Lisbon 1755 earthquake [Mag 8.7]), most of which haviguilhng epicenter rise in submerged area, located in the Cadiz Gulf and Southwest of San Vincent Cape. Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is presently a very effective concept to be applied in the mitigation of the effects caused by large earthquakes. For the mentioned area a feasibility study of a EEWS was made in the ALERT-ES project. It was found that the system could be effective to protect cities and infrastructures located at larger distances (ex: Lisbon) from the areas, located south and southwest of PT mainland, where the larger earthquakes are expected to be originated. Considering the use of a new strong-motion network recently implemented in the south of PT mainland, we concluded that the lead-times could be improved. We opted by the implementation of the well known computational platform PRESTO. In the adaptation of the mentioned platform to the local reality one of the challenges was the computation of fast moment magnitude estimates, because regional attenuation must be properly considered, and a specific study was made on this issue. The several simulations that were performed showed a reasonably good performance of the system, both on magnitude evaluation and epicentre location. However we also noted that the problems in the acquisition instruments are a very important source of disturbance in the performance of the EEWS, pointing to a need of a very accurate quality control of the strong-motion network. Considering end-users, we are also developing specific software for intensity estimation at the target places and to trigger visual and audio alerts in accordance to the expected level of shaking. This work is supported by the EU project TSUMAPS-NEAM, Agreement Number

  20. Multi-terminal remote monitoring and warning system using Micro Air Vehicle for dangerous environment (United States)

    Yu, Yanan; Wang, Xiaoxun; He, Chengcheng; Lai, Chenlong; Liu, Yuanchao


    For overcoming the problems such as remote operation and dangerous tasks, multi-terminal remote monitoring and warning system based on STC89C52 Micro Control Unit and wireless communication technique was proposed. The system with MCU as its core adopted multiple sets of sensor device to monitor environment parameters of different locations, such as temperature, humidity, smoke other harmful gas concentration. Data information collected was transmitted remotely by wireless transceiver module, and then multi-channel data parameter was processed and displayed through serial communication protocol between the module and PC. The results of system could be checked in the form of web pages within a local network which plays a wireless monitoring and warning role. In a remote operation, four-rotor micro air vehicle which fixed airborne data acquisition device was utilized as a middleware between collecting terminal and PC to increase monitoring scope. Whole test system has characteristics of simple construction, convenience, real time ability and high reliability, which could meet the requirements of actual use.

  1. Systemic banking crisis early warning systems using dynamic bayesian networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dabrowski, JJ


    Full Text Available discrete switching state variable st, a latent continuous variable ht and an observable continuous variable vt. The graphical model of the SLDS is illustrated in Figure 2. The latent and observable variables form a linear dy- namic system (LDS). The LDS... is a state space model (Barber, 2012). The SLDS is modelled according to the following state space equations ht = A(st)ht−1 + ηht (st), (7.1) vt = B(st)ht + ηvt (st). (7.2) The matrix A(st) is referred to as the state transition matrix or the system...

  2. An Early Warning System Based on Syndromic Surveillance to Detect Potential Health Emergencies among Migrants: Results of a Two-Year Experience in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Napoli


    Full Text Available Profound geopolitical changes have impacted the southern and eastern Mediterranean since 2010 and defined a context of instability that is still affecting several countries today. Insecurity combined with the reduction of border controls has led to major population movements in the region and to migration surges from affected countries to southern Europe, especially to Italy. To respond to the humanitarian emergency triggered by this migration surge, Italy implemented a syndromic surveillance system in order to rapidly detect potential public health emergencies in immigrant reception centres. This system was discontinued after two years. This paper presents the results of this experience detailing its strengths and weaknesses in order to document the applicability and usefulness of syndromic surveillance in this specific context.

  3. Early warning system realized by ENVINET a.s., domestic and abroad

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sury, J.; Skala, L.; Holcak, P.; Matousek, P.


    Within recent years, research and development has expanded the portfolio of applied results in the field of early warning systems - both stationary and mobile standalone. Their implementation in different areas all over the world in different climatic conditions and their coincidence of possible communication interface software, databases, data collection and assessment of the radiation situations allow the users to respond to possible events and thus significantly affect the decision-making level for the preventive countermeasures including their utilization during radiation accidents. Some of the results will be presented during the presentation: - Implementation of monitoring stations in Varazdin, Velika Gorica, Sisak, Virovitica, Beli Manastir, Zadar, Knin and Ploce in Croatia 2014. Other locations such as Plitvice, Sibenik and Koprivnica are also considered. Radiometric monitoring station NuEM RAMS, dose rate from 10 nSv h -1 to 1 Sv h -1 . - Implementation of radiation monitoring stations in Warszawa, Zagan, Wroclaw, Szczecin, Krakow, Lublin, Gdynia, Bydgoszcz, Rzeszow, Bartoszyce, Srem, Swinoujscie, and Ustka in Poland 2014-2015. Radiometric monitoring station NuEM RAMS, dose rate from 10 nSv h -1 to 9 Sv h -1 . Purpose of stations - for a radiation monitoring network in a given area and for integration into the networks of early warning system. Measurement by using smart probe with 2 (3) GM tubes according to a measuring range. Power supply from photo-voltaic panel for the standalone mode. Transmission of measured data is done by using a GSM network. Data are stored into database at a web server. - Early warning system in Latvia 2013-2014. 20 pcs of stationary spectrometric AGR or IGS type or equivalent stations, NaI (Tl) or LaBr detector for on-line identification of radionuclides based on integrated isotope base with at least 10 indicated radionuclides (K-40, Mo-99, Ru-103, Rh -106, Te-129, I-131, Te-132, I-133, Cs-134, Cs-137, and Ba-140). Objective

  4. A flexible hydrological warning system in Denmark for real-time surface water and groundwater simulations (United States)

    He, Xin; Stisen, Simon; Wiese, Marianne B.; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans


    In Denmark, increasing focus on extreme weather events has created considerable demand for short term forecasts and early warnings in relation to groundwater and surface water flooding. The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) has setup, calibrated and applied a nationwide water resources model, the DK-Model, primarily for simulating groundwater and surface water flows and groundwater levels during the past 20 years. So far, the DK-model has only been used in offline historical and future scenario simulations. Therefore, challenges arise in operating such a model for online forecasts and early warnings, which requires access to continuously updated observed climate input data and forecast data of precipitation, temperature and global radiation for the next 48 hours or longer. GEUS has a close collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute in order to test and enable this data input for the DK model. Due to the comprehensive physical descriptions of the DK-Model, the simulation results can potentially be any component of the hydrological cycle within the models domain. Therefore, it is important to identify which results need to be updated and saved in the real-time mode, since it is not computationally economical to save every result considering the heavy load of data. GEUS have worked closely with the end-users and interest groups such as water planners and emergency managers from the municipalities, water supply and waste water companies, consulting companies and farmer organizations, in order to understand their possible needs for real time simulation and monitoring of the nationwide water cycle. This participatory process has been supported by a web based questionnaire survey, and a workshop that connected the model developers and the users. For qualifying the stakeholder engagement, GEUS has selected a representative catchment area (Skjern River) for testing and demonstrating a prototype of the web based hydrological warning system at the

  5. Integration of Disaster Detection and Warning System for a Smart Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Chieh Wang


    Full Text Available For firefighters and rescuers, the disaster relief works are difficulty performed in the tunnels because of their constricted space. To reduce the losses of accident, the safety of tunnels and factories should be ordinarily kept under surveillance. Hence, a multisensor based smart tracked vehicle is designed for the application of autonomous detection and surveillance in this paper. Besides, multisensors, communication modules, wireless cameras, an electronic compass, and a GPS module are installed in the vehicle. The key feature is the integration of disaster detection and warning systems so that the vehicle can move autonomously. Furthermore, a LabVIEW graphical programming software is applied to design a human machine interface (HMI and integrate all systems such that the vehicle can be guided by High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSHPA based remote control. Moreover, basic stamp microcontrollers are utilized as its control kernel such that the remote monitoring and control system (RMCS can be constructed successfully.

  6. The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) - Application in Early Warning Systems for Natural Hazard (United States)

    Lendholt, Matthias; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim


    The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [1] is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In conjunction with the Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element (-DE) [2] these data formats can be used for warning message dissemination in early warning systems for natural hazards. Application took place in the DEWS (Distance Early Warning System) [3] project where CAP serves as central message format containing both human readable warnings and structured data for automatic processing by message receivers. In particular the spatial reference capabilities are of paramount importance both in CAP and EDXL. Affected areas are addressable via geo codes like HASC (Hierarchical Administrative Subdivision Codes) [4] or UN/LOCODE [5] but also with arbitrary polygons that can be directly generated out of GML [6]. For each affected area standardized criticality values (urgency, severity and certainty) have to be set but also application specific key-value-pairs like estimated time of arrival or maximum inundation height can be specified. This enables - together with multilingualism, message aggregation and message conversion for different dissemination channels - the generation of user-specific tailored warning messages. [1] CAP, [2] EDXL-DE, [3] DEWS, [4] HASC, "Administrative Subdivisions of Countries: A Comprehensive World Reference, 1900 Through 1998" ISBN 0-7864-0729-8 [5] UN/LOCODE, [6] GML,

  7. An Experimental Seismic Data and Parameter Exchange System for Tsunami Warning Systems (United States)

    Hoffmann, T. L.; Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Weber, B.; Becker, J.; Heinloo, A.; Hoffmann, M.


    For several years GFZ Potsdam is operating a global earthquake monitoring system. Since the beginning of 2008, this system is also used as an experimental seismic background data center for two different regional Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS), the IOTWS (Indian Ocean) and the interim NEAMTWS (NE Atlantic and Mediterranean). The SeisComP3 (SC3) software, developed within the GITEWS (German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System) project, capable to acquire, archive and process real-time data feeds, was extended for export and import of individual processing results within the two clusters of connected SC3 systems. Therefore not only real-time waveform data are routed to the attached warning centers through GFZ but also processing results. While the current experimental NEAMTWS cluster consists of SC3 systems in six designated national warning centers in Europe, the IOTWS cluster presently includes seven centers, with another three likely to join in 2009/10. For NEAMTWS purposes, the GFZ virtual real-time seismic network (GEOFON Extended Virtual Network -GEVN) in Europe was substantially extended by adding many stations from Western European countries optimizing the station distribution. In parallel to the data collection over the Internet, a GFZ VSAT hub for secured data collection of the EuroMED GEOFON and NEAMTWS backbone network stations became operational and first data links were established through this backbone. For the Southeast Asia region, a VSAT hub has been established in Jakarta already in 2006, with some other partner networks connecting to this backbone via the Internet. Since its establishment, the experimental system has had the opportunity to prove its performance in a number of relevant earthquakes. Reliable solutions derived from a minimum of 25 stations were very promising in terms of speed. For important events, automatic alerts were released and disseminated by emails and SMS. Manually verified solutions are added as soon as they become

  8. The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) adaption in National Early Warning Alerting Systems of China (United States)

    Li, Chao


    The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [1] is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In China, from local communities to entire nations, there was a patchwork of specialized hazard public alerting systems. And each system was often designed just for certain emergency situations and for certain communications media. Application took place in the NEWAS (National Early Warning Alerting Systems) [2]project where CAP serves as central message to integrate all kind of hazard situations, including the natural calamity, accident disaster, public health emergency , social safety etc. Officially operated on May 2015, NEWAS now has completed docking work with 14 departments including civil administration, safety supervision, forestry, land, water conservancy, earthquake, traffic, meteorology, agriculture, tourism, food and drug supervision, public security and oceanic administration. Thus, several items in CAP has been modified, redefined and extended according to the various grading standards and publishing strategies, as well as the characteristics of Chinese Geocoding. NEWAS successfully delivers information to end users through 4 levels (i.e. State, province, prefecture and county) structure and by various means. [1] CAP, [2]

  9. Design of early warning system for nuclear preparedness case study at Serpong (United States)

    Farid, M. M.; Prawito, Susila, I. P.; Yuniarto, A.


    One effort to protect the environment from the increasing of potentially environmental radiation hazards as an impact of radiation discharge around nuclear facilities is by a continuous monitoring of the environmental radiation in real time It is important to disclose the dose rate information to public or authorities for radiological protection. In this research, we have designed a nuclear preparedness early warning system around the Serpong nuclear facility. The design is based on Arduino program, general packet radio service (GPRS) shield, and radio frequencies technology to transmit environmental radiation result of the measurement and meteorological data. Data was collected at a certain location at The Center for Informatics and Nuclear Strategic Zone Utilization BATAN Serpong. The system consistency models are defined by the quality of data and the level of radiation exposure in the deployed environment. Online users can access the website which displays the radiation dose on the environment marked on Google Map. This system is capable to issue an early warning emergency when the dose reaches three times of the background radiation exposure value, 250 nSv/hour.

  10. Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices (United States)

    Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.


    Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

  11. Birth, growth and progresses through the last twelve years of a regional scale landslide warning system (United States)

    Fanti, Riccardo; Segoni, Samuele; Rosi, Ascanio; Lagomarsino, Daniela; Catani, Filippo


    SIGMA is a regional landslide warning system that operates in the Emilia Romagna region (Italy). In this work, we depict its birth and the continuous development process, still ongoing, after over a decade of operational employ. Traditionally, landslide rainfall thresholds are defined by the empirical correspondence between a rainfall database and a landslide database. However, in the early stages of the research, a complete catalogue of dated landslides was not available. Therefore, the prototypal version of SIGMA was based on rainfall thresholds defined by means of a statistical analysis performed over the rainfall time series. SIGMA was purposely designed to take into account both shallow and deep seated landslides and it was based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of accumulated rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering. The statistical distribution of the rainfall series was analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) were used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. In the warning system, the measured and the forecasted rainfall are compared with these thresholds. Since the response of slope stability to rainfall may be complex, SIGMA is based on a decision algorithm aimed at identifying short but exceptionally intense rainfalls and mild but exceptionally prolonged rains: while the former are commonly associated with shallow landslides, the latter are mainly associated with deep-seated landslides. In the first case, the rainfall threshold is defined by high σ values and short durations (i.e. a few days); in the second case, σ values are lower but the decision algorithm checks long durations (i.e. some months). The exact definition of "high" and "low" σ values and of "short" and "long" duration varied through time according as it was adjusted during the evolution of the model. Indeed, since 2005, a constant work was carried out to gather and organize newly available data (rainfall

  12. Research on cost early warning of textile industry based on AC algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaolu Meng


    Full Text Available In recent years, the textile industry faces huge pressure domestically and internationally. With a small profit margin in the textile industry, it becomes very important to improve the economic efficiency and the cost management. Therefore, establishing an effective cost early warning system for the textile industry is necessary. The proposal of AC algorithm predicts the cost alert completely based on the historical data without estimating or assuming the future trend of the input variables in advance. Based on its advantages, the length of pattern (k is 2, 3, 4 or 5, and then we respectively build the cost early warning model. According to the results of comparison, the model with k =3 has the strongest predictive ability. The predictive error of the total cost is 1.8%, smaller than that of others. Then, this paper predicts the cost alert of the next five years by the model with k =3. The results show that the cost alert has certain volatility. Accordingly, we proposed some suggestions to cope with the crisis. This paper also provides references for the industry, government and relevant investors.

  13. Development of an advanced radioactive airborne particle monitoring system for use in early warning networks. (United States)

    Baeza, A; Corbacho, J A; Caballero, J M; Ontalba, M A; Vasco, J; Valencia, D


    Automatic real-time warning networks are essential for the almost immediate detection of anomalous levels of radioactivity in the environment. In the case of Extremadura region (SW Spain), a radiological network (RARE) has been operational in the vicinity of the Almaraz nuclear power plant and in other areas farther away since 1992. There are ten air monitoring stations equipped with Geiger-Müller counters in order to evaluate the external ambient gamma dose rate. Four of these stations have a commercial system that provides estimates of the total artificial alpha and beta activity concentrations in aerosols, and of the 131 I activity (gaseous fraction). Despite experience having demonstrated the benefits and robustness of these commercial systems, important improvements have been made to one of these air monitoring systems. In this paper, the analytical and maintenance shortcomings of the original commercial air monitoring system are described first; the new custom-designed advanced air monitoring system is then presented. This system is based mainly on the incorporation of gamma spectrometry using two scintillation detectors, one of NaI:Tl and the other of LaBr 3 :Ce, and compact multichannel analysers. Next, a comparison made of the results provided by the two systems operating simultaneously at the same location for three months shows the advantages of the new advanced air monitoring system. As a result, the gamma spectrometry analysis allows passing from global alpha and beta activity determinations due to artificial radionuclides in aerosols, and the inaccurate measurement of the gaseous 131 I activity concentration, to the possibility of identifying a large number of radionuclides and quantifying each of their activity concentrations. Moreover, the new station's dual capacity is designed to work in early warning monitoring mode and surveillance monitoring mode. This is based on custom developed software that includes an intelligent system to issue the

  14. Detection of rain events in radiological early warning networks with spectro-dosimetric systems (United States)

    Dąbrowski, R.; Dombrowski, H.; Kessler, P.; Röttger, A.; Neumaier, S.


    Short-term pronounced increases of the ambient dose equivalent rate, due to rainfall are a well-known phenomenon. Increases in the same order of magnitude or even below may also be caused by a nuclear or radiological event, i.e. by artificial radiation. Hence, it is important to be able to identify natural rain events in dosimetric early warning networks and to distinguish them from radiological events. Novel spectrometric systems based on scintillators may be used to differentiate between the two scenarios, because the measured gamma spectra provide significant nuclide-specific information. This paper describes three simple, automatic methods to check whether an dot H*(10) increase is caused by a rain event or by artificial radiation. These methods were applied to measurements of three spectrometric systems based on CeBr3, LaBr3 and SrI2 scintillation crystals, investigated and tested for their practicability at a free-field reference site of PTB.

  15. Evaluation of a sudden brake warning system: effect on the response time of the following driver. (United States)

    Isler, Robert B; Starkey, Nicola J


    This study used a video-based braking simulation dual task to carry out a preliminary evaluation of the effect of a sudden brake warning system (SBWS) in a leading passenger vehicle on the response time of the following driver. The primary task required the participants (N=25, 16 females, full NZ license holders) to respond to sudden braking manoeuvres of a lead vehicle during day and night driving, wet and dry conditions and in rural and urban traffic, while concurrently performing a secondary tracking task using a computer mouse. The SBWS in the lead vehicle consisted of g-force controlled activation of the rear hazard lights (the rear indicators flashed), in addition to the standard brake lights. Overall, the results revealed that responses to the braking manoeuvres of the leading vehicles when the hazard lights were activated by the warning system were 0.34 s (19%) faster compared to the standard brake lights. The SBWS was particularly effective when the simulated braking scenario of the leading vehicle did not require an immediate and abrupt braking response. Given this, the SBWS may also be beneficial for allowing smoother deceleration, thus reducing fuel consumption. These preliminary findings justify a larger, more ecologically valid laboratory evaluation which may lead to a naturalistic study in order to test this new technology in 'real world' braking situations. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The Effect of Activating Early Warning System on Motahari Hospital Preparedness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Delshad


    Full Text Available Background: One of the important aspects of hospital preparedness in disasters is its rapid early warning system. In this study, the activation of early warning system was evaluated under the monitoring of disasters workgroup of the Ministry of Health based on the national program of “hospitals preparedness in disasters” in Shahid Motahari Hospital.  Materials and Methods: The sample was composed of 801 adults exposed to the earthquake. Two months after the earthquake, all subjects were surveyed with measures administrated in a standard order as follows: demographic data sheet, disaster experiences scale (DES, general health questionnaire (GHQ, and symptom checklist 90-revised (SCL-90-R. Results: The results revealed that 23% of the survivors in the exposed group had ASD, 10% had anxiety symptoms, 7.5% depression, 4% MADD, 5% psychosomatic disorders, 10% phobia, 7% aggressive behavior, and 10% insomnia. Conclusion: This article has summarized the current status of information on mental disorders caused by experiencing or witnessing a life threatening severe earthquake. The experience of fear, helplessness, and panic during the earthquake, and the appraisal by the victims of serious psychological, social, as well as demographical consequences after the earthquake, were positively related to the subscale scores and the total score of GHQ, SCL-90-R, and DES.

  17. Development of a national Flash flood warning system in France using the AIGA method: first results and main issues (United States)

    Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine


    Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project ( It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

  18. Unveiling the truth: warnings reduce the repetition-based truth effect. (United States)

    Nadarevic, Lena; Aßfalg, André


    Typically, people are more likely to consider a previously seen or heard statement as true compared to a novel statement. This repetition-based "truth effect" is thought to rely on fluency-truth attributions as the underlying cognitive mechanism. In two experiments, we tested the nature of the fluency-attribution mechanism by means of warning instructions, which informed participants about the truth effect and asked them to prevent it. In Experiment 1, we instructed warned participants to consider whether a statement had already been presented in the experiment to avoid the truth effect. However, warnings did not significantly reduce the truth effect. In Experiment 2, we introduced control questions and reminders to ensure that participants understood the warning instruction. This time, warning reduced, but did not eliminate the truth effect. Assuming that the truth effect relies on fluency-truth attributions, this finding suggests that warned participants could control their attributions but did not disregard fluency altogether when making truth judgments. Further, we found no evidence that participants overdiscount the influence of fluency on their truth judgments.

  19. Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area (United States)

    Liu, D. L.; Zhang, S. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zhao, L. Q.; Jiang, Y. H.; Tang, D.; Leng, X. P.


    The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

  20. Toward a cross-border early-warning system for Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Stankiewicz


    Full Text Available Rapidly expanding urban areas in Central Asia are increasingly vulnerable to seismic risk; but at present, no earthquake early warning (EEW systems exist in the region despite their successful implementation in other earthquake-prone areas. Such systems aim to provide short (seconds to tens of seconds warnings of impending disaster, enabling the first risk mitigation and damage control steps to be taken. This study presents the feasibility of a large scale cross-border regional system for Central Asian countries. Genetic algorithms are used to design efficient EEW networks, computing optimal station locations and trigger thresholds in recorded ground acceleration. Installation of such systems within 3 years aims to both reducing the endemic lack of strong motion data in Central Asia that is limiting the possibility of improving seismic hazard assessment, and at providing the first regional earthquake early warning system in the area.

  1. Landslide early warning system prototype with GIS analysis indicates by soil movement and rainfall (United States)

    Artha, Y.; Julian, E. S.


    The aim of this paper is developing and testing of landslide early warning system. The early warning system uses accelerometersas ground movement and tilt-sensing device and a water flow sensor. A microcentroller is used to process the input signal and activate the alarm. An LCD is used to display the acceleration in x,y and z axis. When the soil moved or shifted and rainfall reached 100 mm/day, the alarm rang and signal were sentto the monitoring center via a telemetry system.Data logging information and GIS spatial data can be monitored remotely as tables and graphics as well as in the form of geographical map with the help of web-GIS interface. The system were tested at Kampung Gerendong, Desa Putat Nutug, Kecamatan Ciseeng, Kabupaten Bogor. This area has 3.15 cumulative score, which mean vulnerable to landslide. The results show that the early warning system worked as planned.

  2. Introduction of structural health and safety monitoring warning systems for Shenzhen-Hong Kong Western Corridor Shenzhen Bay Bridge (United States)

    Li, N.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhou, X. T.; Leng, J.; Liang, Z.; Zheng, C.; Sun, X. F.


    Though the brief introduction of the completed structural health and safety monitoring warning systems for Shenzhen-Hongkong western corridor Shenzhen bay highway bridge (SZBHMS), the self-developed system frame, hardware and software scheme of this practical research project are systematically discussed in this paper. The data acquisition and transmission hardware and the basic software based on the NI (National Instruments) Company virtual instruments technology were selected in this system, which adopted GPS time service receiver technology and so on. The objectives are to establish the structural safety monitoring and status evaluation system to monitor the structural responses and working conditions in real time and to analyze the structural working statue using information obtained from the measured data. It will be also provided the scientific decision-making bases for the bridge management and maintenance. Potential technical approaches to the structural safety warning systems, status identification and evaluation method are presented. The result indicated that the performance of the system has achieved the desired objectives, ensure the longterm high reliability, real time concurrence and advanced technology of SZBHMS. The innovate achievement which is the first time to implement in domestic, provide the reference for long-span bridge structural health and safety monitoring warning systems design.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Oktaviani


    Full Text Available The background of this study was the lack of awareness Indonesian society toward syariah life insurance andit needed to be investigated whether there was a problem on its financial instruments by using Early WarningSystem ratio. The purpose of this study was to prove the influence of Early Warning System ratio for contributionrevenue growth syariah life insurance companies in Indonesia period 2010-2013. The sampling techniqueused was purposive sampling. Samples that acquired the criteria were 10 companies. Data were analyzedusing multiple linear regression. The ratio of the Early Warning System consisted of 6 solvencies: solvencymargin ratio, change in surplus ratio, return on investment ratio, liquidity ratio, agent’s balance to surplusratio and technical ratio. The result of this study was Early Warning System ratio influenced simultaneouslyon contribution revenue growth ratio and partial contribution of technical ratio influenced positively tocontribution revenue growth ratio. So, Early Warning System ratio could be applied in order to increasecontribution revenue growth of life insurance syariah units companies.

  4. Technology, conflict early warning systems, public health, and human rights. (United States)

    Pham, Phuong N; Vinck, Patrick


    Public health and conflict early warning are evolving rapidly in response to technology changes for the gathering, management, analysis and communication of data. It is expected that these changes will provide an unprecedented ability to monitor, detect, and respond to crises. One of the potentially most profound and lasting expected change affects the roles of the various actors in providing and sharing information and in responding to early warning. Communities and civil society actors have the opportunity to be empowered as a source of information, analysis, and response, while the role of traditional actors shifts toward supporting those communities and building resilience. However, by creating new roles, relationships, and responsibilities, technology changes raise major concerns and ethical challenges for practitioners, pressing the need for practical guidelines and actionable recommendations in line with existing ethical principles. Copyright © 2012 Pham and Vinck. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

  5. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier


    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: PMID:26910315

  6. A Steady-State Visual Evoked Potential Brain-Computer Interface System Evaluation as an In-Vehicle Warning Device (United States)

    Riyahi, Pouria

    This thesis is part of current research at Center for Intelligence Systems Research (CISR) at The George Washington University for developing new in-vehicle warning systems via Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs). The purpose of conducting this research is to contribute to the current gap between BCI and in-vehicle safety studies. It is based on the premise that accurate and timely monitoring of human (driver) brain's signal to external stimuli could significantly aide in detection of driver's intentions and development of effective warning systems. The thesis starts with introducing the concept of BCI and its development history while it provides a literature review on the nature of brain signals. The current advancement and increasing demand for commercial and non-medical BCI products are described. In addition, the recent research attempts in transportation safety to study drivers' behavior or responses through brain signals are reviewed. The safety studies, which are focused on employing a reliable and practical BCI system as an in-vehicle assistive device, are also introduced. A major focus of this thesis research has been on the evaluation and development of the signal processing algorithms which can effectively filter and process brain signals when the human subject is subjected to Visual LED (Light Emitting Diodes) stimuli at different frequencies. The stimulated brain generates a voltage potential, referred to as Steady-State Visual Evoked Potential (SSVEP). Therefore, a newly modified analysis algorithm for detecting the brain visual signals is proposed. These algorithms are designed to reach a satisfactory accuracy rate without preliminary trainings, hence focusing on eliminating the need for lengthy training of human subjects. Another important concern is the ability of the algorithms to find correlation of brain signals with external visual stimuli in real-time. The developed analysis models are based on algorithms which are capable of generating results

  7. 14 CFR 121.360 - Ground proximity warning-glide slope deviation alerting system. (United States)


    ... deviation alerting system. 121.360 Section 121.360 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... Equipment Requirements § 121.360 Ground proximity warning-glide slope deviation alerting system. (a) No... system that meets the performance and environmental standards of TSO-C92 (available from the FAA, 800...

  8. Developing a dengue early warning system using time series model: Case study in Tainan, Taiwan (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang


    Dengue fever (DF) is a climate-sensitive disease that has been emerging in southern regions of Taiwan over the past few decades, causing a significant health burden to affected areas. This study aims to propose a predictive model to implement an early warning system so as to enhance dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used herein to forecast dengue cases. Temporal correlation between dengue incidences and climate variables were examined by Pearson correlation analysis and Cross-correlation tests in order to identify key determinants to be included as predictors. The dengue surveillance data between 2000 and 2009, as well as their respective climate variables were then used as inputs for the model. We validated the model by forecasting the number of dengue cases expected to occur each week between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. In addition, we analyzed historical dengue trends and found that 25 cases occurring in one week was a trigger point that often led to a dengue outbreak. This threshold point was combined with the season-based framework put forth by the World Health Organization to create a more accurate epidemic threshold for a Tainan-specific warning system. A Seasonal ARIMA model with the general form: (1,0,5)(1,1,1)52 is identified as the most appropriate model based on lowest AIC, and was proven significant in the prediction of observed dengue cases. Based on the correlation coefficient, Lag-11 maximum 1-hr rainfall (r=0.319, Pclimate variables. Comparing the four multivariate models(i.e.1, 4, 9 and 13 weeks ahead), we found that including the climate variables improves the prediction RMSE as high as 3.24%, 10.39%, 17.96%, 21.81% respectively, in contrast to univariate models. Furthermore, the ability of the four multivariate models to determine whether the epidemic threshold would be exceeded in any given week during the forecasting period of 2010-2015 was

  9. Security warning method and system for worker safety during live-line working (United States)

    Jiang, Chilong; Zou, Dehua; Long, Chenhai; Yang, Miao; Zhang, Zhanlong; Mei, Daojun


    Live-line working is an essential part in the operations in an electric power system. Live-line workers are required to wear shielding clothing. Shielding clothing, however, acts as a closed environment for the human body. Working in a closed environment for a long time can change the physiological responses of the body and even endanger personal safety. According to the typical conditions of live-line working, this study synthesizes environmental factors related to shielding clothing and the physiological factors of the body to establish the heart rate variability index RMSSD and the comprehensive security warning index SWI. On the basis of both indices, this paper proposes a security warning method and system for the safety live-line workers. The system can monitor the real-time status of workers during live-line working to provide security warning and facilitate the effective safety supervision by the live operation center during actual live-line working.

  10. Early warning system of drought for risk assessment and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chub, V.E.; Agaltseva, N.A.; Myagkov, S.V.


    In Article 10 point 2 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification and Drought it is pointed out that the National Action Plans 'envisage the strengthening of the national basis of the climatic, meteorological and hydrological studies and the extending the possibilities for the creation of the system of the early drought forecasting'. The Pilot Project << Early warning system of Drought,, was executed in Uzbekistan at support of Germany project on Convention to combat Desertification (GTZ-CCD). The objective of the project is the creation of the regional automated information system for the early drought warning (AISEWS). In the framework of the project it is proposed to fulfil the main following tasks: - development of concepts of preparing the databases on drought factors and keeping on the databank of drought conditions on territory of Republic Uzbekistan; - the creation of the regional informational basis of the hydro meteorological and agrometeorological information and the system of its keeping on the basis of GIS technique; - analysis of hydro meteorological situations causing the drought in the Aral sea basin; - experimental agrometeorological (in the course of the field studies) and numerical estimation of the parameters of the model of the runoff formation and soil drought; - adaptation of the models complex set of the runoff formation for hydrological objects; - development of out the technique for the long-term drought forecasting basing on the mathematical models of the runoff formation in the river basin; -development of the computer information system for the early drought forecasting with the elements of the operational information transfer to the users. For the Central Asian region the drought means, first of all, the deficit of the water resources that is why the forecasting of the water availability in rivers in the years with the water deficit is of the utmost importance. The following tasks should be fulfilled for the achieving the designed

  11. Towards the construction of a Drought Early Warning System in México (United States)

    Neri, C.; Magaña, V. O.


    Droughts in Mexico are related to severe impacts in agricultural and livestock activities, water management and with the occurrence of wildfire. Droughts are recurrent, on time scales from years to decades. The impacts however, depend on the vulnerability. The negative impacts may be reduced by studying and monitoring the dynamical evolution of meteorological drought, and by identifying the factors that result in vulnerability, in the context of risk management. Considering the analysis of the vulnerability in the northern of Mexico, a semiarid region highly vulnerable to drought, a Drought Early Warning System was created based on the use of climate information. The first step was to identify the capacity to provide useful climate information to develop prevention actions. Results confirm that the drought in northern Mexico is a well-diagnosed phenomenon from the point of view of impacts in various sectors. However, the use of climate information is still very limited resulting in response to mitigate drought impacts rather than preparing for drought. Part of the problem is the limited capacity to interpret probabilistic forecasts to define actions. Therefore, a key element in a Drought Early Warning System is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using climate diagnosis and forecast. A preventive response to drought may be defined if the severity and duration surpass a threshold value after which a decision action should be made. In order to establish the relevance of indicators for drought risk management, retroactive analyses have been developed considering the case of northwestern Mexico. After a vulnerability analysis that considers the institutional capacity to make use of climate information, a Drought Early warning System has been designed that considers a number of actions that may be put

  12. A new Bayesian Inference-based Phase Associator for Earthquake Early Warning (United States)

    Meier, Men-Andrin; Heaton, Thomas; Clinton, John; Wiemer, Stefan


    State of the art network-based Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide warnings for large magnitude 7+ earthquakes. Although regions in the direct vicinity of the epicenter will not receive warnings prior to damaging shaking, real-time event characterization is available before the destructive S-wave arrival across much of the strongly affected region. In contrast, in the case of the more frequent medium size events, such as the devastating 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake, providing timely warning to the smaller damage zone is more difficult. For such events the "blind zone" of current systems (e.g. the CISN ShakeAlert system in California) is similar in size to the area over which severe damage occurs. We propose a faster and more robust Bayesian inference-based event associator, that in contrast to the current standard associators (e.g. Earthworm Binder), is tailored to EEW and exploits information other than only phase arrival times. In particular, the associator potentially allows for reliable automated event association with as little as two observations, which, compared to the ShakeAlert system, would speed up the real-time characterizations by about ten seconds and thus reduce the blind zone area by up to 80%. We compile an extensive data set of regional and teleseismic earthquake and noise waveforms spanning a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and tectonic regimes. We pass these waveforms through a causal real-time filterbank with passband filters between 0.1 and 50Hz, and, updating every second from the event detection, extract the maximum amplitudes in each frequency band. Using this dataset, we define distributions of amplitude maxima in each passband as a function of epicentral distance and magnitude. For the real-time data, we pass incoming broadband and strong motion waveforms through the same filterbank and extract an evolving set of maximum amplitudes in each passband. We use the maximum amplitude distributions to check

  13. SafeLand guidelines for landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Europe - Design and required technology (United States)

    Bazin, S.


    Landslide monitoring means the comparison of landslide characteristics like areal extent, speed of movement, surface topography and soil humidity from different periods in order to assess landslide activity. An ultimate "universal" methodology for this purpose does not exist; every technology has its own advantages and disadvantages. End-users should carefully consider each one to select the methodologies that represent the best compromise between pros and cons, and are best suited for their needs. Besides monitoring technology, there are many factors governing the choice of an Early Warning System (EWS). A people-centred EWS necessarily comprises five key elements: (1) knowledge of the risks; (2) identification, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; (3) operational centre; (4) communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and (5) local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that EWSs need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. The aim of the present work is to provide guidelines for establishing the different components for landslide EWSs. One of the main deliverables of the EC-FP7 SafeLand project addresses the technical and practical issues related to monitoring and early warning for landslides, and identifies the best technologies available in the context of both hazard assessment and design of EWSs. This deliverable targets the end-users and aims to facilitate the decision process by providing guidelines. For the purpose of sharing the globally accumulated expertise, a screening study was done on 14 EWSs from 8 different countries. On these bases, the report presents a synoptic view of existing monitoring methodologies and early-warning strategies and their applicability for different landslide types, scales and risk management steps. Several comprehensive checklists and toolboxes are also included to support informed

  14. Developing a drought early warning information system for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas (United States)

    Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford


    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to develop and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projects focus on...

  15. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms (United States)

    Harriman, Lindsey M.


    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  16. Banking Crisis Early Warning Model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taha Zaghdoudi


    Full Text Available The succession of banking crises in which most have resulted in huge economic and financial losses, prompted several authors to study their determinants. These authors constructed early warning models to prevent their occurring. It is in this same vein as our study takes its inspiration. In particular, we have developed a warning model of banking crises based on a Bayesian approach. The results of this approach have allowed us to identify the involvement of the decline in bank profitability, deterioration of the competitiveness of the traditional intermediation, banking concentration and higher real interest rates in triggering bank crisis.

  17. Computerized control and warning system for uranium mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheeran, C.T.; Franklin, J.C.


    A commercially available microprocessor-based system capable of monitoring 512 channels has been interfaced with monitors for radon, working level, air velocity, and fan power. The basic system utilizes both Z80 and 8080 microprocessors in a desktop central processing unit (CPU). CPU hardware includes keyboard, video display (CRT), and disk drive; a printer is used to keep permanent data records. Signals from all channels are transmitted to the computer in digital form where they are processed for alarm status. Software developed for the system allows for audiovisual alarms in the event of low and high readings, rate change, change of state, or communication failure. Up to six channels can be continuously displayed on the CRT for current readings. Shift reports and trend logs may be generated to help the ventilation engineer determine average working levels and ventilation effectiveness. Additional software permits the operator to program command sequencies which may be used to automatically restart fans after a power outage

  18. Evaluation on the Implementation of Early Warning System for Debris Flow in Merapi Area (Case Study at Boyong River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Cahyadi Achmad


    Full Text Available One of disasters caused by volcanic activity of Mount Merapi is secondary disaster. The disaster usually occurs after eruption and this volcanic activity produces volcanic and pyroclastic material deposit around the top of the mountain as a result of previous eruption. This material might collapse downward in the form of debris flow as it is affected by natural event such as high intensity rainfall. Therefore, a research is needed to analyze whether existing forecasting and early warning system are capable to provide information for the people living in hazardous area before the debris flood occur. This research was carried out using field survey, observation and interview method. Data analysis used qualitative descriptive method by making description of actual condition of the researched location general condition and qualitative analysis of telemetry system installed on Mount Merapi. The qualitative analysis of telemetry system covers network, hardware, software, power supply, security system, operation and maintenance, also human resources. Research analysis used primary and secondary data. Research results revealed that mean rainfall intensity above of 60 mm/hour might trigger debris flood. Early warning should be given at the rainfall intensity level of 50-55 mm/hour, and debris flood time travel from the upstream to the observed location in Pulowatu Village is 45 minute. Based on the analysis of the present forecasting and early warning system, it is known that some of the equipment is not well functioned, so that debris flow cannot be predicted and detected. This is caused by the lack of human resource quality of the officers in operating and maintaining the equipment. Concerning that matter, it is necessary to conduct some improvement to achieve better forecasting and early warning system in order to give information regarding occurrence of debris flow.

  19. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve


    U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

  20. An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt (United States)

    Cools, J.; Vanderkimpen, P.; El Afandi, G.; Abdelkhalek, A.; Fockedey, S.; El Sammany, M.; Abdallah, G.; El Bihery, M.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.


    An early warning system (EWS) for flash floods has been developed for part of the Sinai peninsula of Egypt, an hyper-arid area confronted with limited availability of field data, limited understanding of the response of the wadi to rainfall, and a lack of correspondence between rainfall data and observed flash flood events. This paper shows that an EWS is not a "mission impossible" when confronted with large technical and scientific uncertainties and limited data availability. Firstly, the EWS has been developed and tested based on the best available information, this being quantitative data (field measurements, simulations and remote sensing images) complemented with qualitative "expert opinion" and local stakeholders' knowledge. Secondly, a set of essential parameters has been identified to be estimated or measured under data-poor conditions. These are: (1) an inventory of past significant rainfall and flash flood events, (2) the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall events and (3) transmission and infiltration losses and (4) thresholds for issuing warnings. Over a period of 30 yr (1979-2010), only 20 significant rain events have been measured. Nine of these resulted in a flash flood. Five flash floods were caused by regional storms and four by local convective storms. The results for the 2010 flash flood show that 90% of the total rainfall volume was lost to infiltration and transmission losses. Finally, it is discussed that the effectiveness of an EWS is only partially determined by technological performance. A strong institutional capacity is equally important, especially skilled staff to operate and maintain the system and clear communication pathways and emergency procedures in case of an upcoming disaster.

  1. Real-time flood monitoring and warning system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jirapon Sunkpho


    Full Text Available Flooding is one of the major disasters occurring in various parts of the world. The system for real-time monitoring ofwater conditions: water level; flow; and precipitation level, was developed to be employed in monitoring flood in Nakhon SiThammarat, a southern province in Thailand. The two main objectives of the developed system is to serve 1 as informationchannel for flooding between the involved authorities and experts to enhance their responsibilities and collaboration and2 as a web based information source for the public, responding to their need for information on water condition and flooding.The developed system is composed of three major components: sensor network, processing/transmission unit, and database/application server. These real-time data of water condition can be monitored remotely by utilizing wireless sensors networkthat utilizes the mobile General Packet Radio Service (GPRS communication in order to transmit measured data to theapplication server. We implemented a so-called VirtualCOM, a middleware that enables application server to communicatewith the remote sensors connected to a GPRS data unit (GDU. With VirtualCOM, a GDU behaves as if it is a cable directlyconnected the remote sensors to the application server. The application server is a web-based system implemented usingPHP and JAVA as the web application and MySQL as its relational database. Users can view real-time water conditionas well as the forecasting of the water condition directly from the web via web browser or via WAP. The developed systemhas demonstrated the applicability of today’s sensors in wirelessly monitor real-time water conditions.

  2. 77 FR 5616 - Proposed Technical Standard Order (TSO)-C151c, Terrain Awareness and Warning System (TAWS) (United States)


    ... (TSO)-C151c, Terrain Awareness and Warning System (TAWS) ACTION: Notice of availability and request for... second draft of Technical Standard Order (TSO)- C151c, Terrain Awareness and Warning System. Comments.... b. Addition of Localizer Performance with Vertical guidance (LPV) and Global Navigation Satellite...

  3. [Early warning for various internal faults of GIS based on ultraviolet spectroscopy]. (United States)

    Zhao, Yu; Wang, Xian-pei; Hu, Hong-hong; Dai, Dang-dang; Long, Jia-chuan; Tian, Meng; Zhu, Guo-wei; Huang, Yun-guang


    As the basis of accurate diagnosis, fault early-warning of gas insulation switchgear (GIS) focuses on the time-effectiveness and the applicability. It would be significant to research the method of unified early-warning for partial discharge (PD) and overheated faults in GIS. In the present paper, SO2 is proposed as the common and typical by-product. The unified monitoring could be achieved through ultraviolet spectroscopy (UV) detection of SO2. The derivative method and Savitzky-Golay filtering are employed for baseline correction and smoothing. The wavelength range of 290-310 nm is selected for quantitative detection of SO2. Through UV method, the spectral interference of SF6 and other complex by-products, e.g., SOF2 and SOF2, can be avoided and the features of trace SO2 in GIS can be extracted. The detection system is featured by compacted structure, low maintenance and satisfactory suitability in filed surveillance. By conducting SF6 decomposition experiments, including two types of PD faults and the overheated faults between 200-400 degrees C, the feasibility of proposed UV method has been verified. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and gas chromatography methods can be used for subsequent fault diagnosis. The different decomposition features in two kinds of faults are confirmed and the diagnosis strategy has been briefly analyzed. The main by-products under PD are SOF2 and SO2F2. The generated SO2 is significantly less than SOF2. More carbonous by-products will be generated when PD involves epoxy. By contrast, when the material of heater is stainless steel, SF6 decomposes at about 300 "C and the main by-products in overheated faults are SO2 and SO2F2. When heated over 350 degrees C, SO2 is generated much faster. SOz content stably increases when the GIS fault lasts. The faults types could be preliminarily identified based on the generation features of SO2.

  4. Indicators of financial crises do work! : an early-warning system for six Asian countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lestano, [No Value; Jacobs, Jan; Kuper, Gerard H.


    Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of

  5. Implementing paediatric early warning scores systems in the Netherlands: future implications.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, J.F. de; Damen, N.; Loos, E. de; Steeg, L. van de; Rosias, P.; Bruijn, M.; Goorhuis, J.; Wagner, C.


    Background: Paediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS) are increasingly being used for early identification and management of clinical deterioration in paediatric patients. A PEWS system includes scores, cut-off points and appropriate early intervention. In 2011, The Dutch Ministry of Health advised

  6. Geospatiotemporal data mining in an early warning system for forest threats in the United States (United States)

    F.M. Hoffman; R.T. Mills; J. Kumar; S.S. Vulli; W.W. Hargrove


    We investigate the potential of geospatiotemporal data mining of multi-year land surface phenology data (250 m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in this study) for the conterminous United States as part of an early warning system to identify threats to forest ecosystems. Cluster...

  7. Beyond institutional capacity: political motivation and parliamentary behaviour in the early warning system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gattermann, K.; Hefftler, C.


    The Early Warning System gives national parliaments the right to intervene in European Union policy-making. This article investigates their incentives to submit reasoned opinions. It analyses the reactions of 40 parliamentary chambers to 411 draft legislative acts between 1 January 2010 and 31

  8. Of Needles and Haystacks: Building an Accurate Statewide Dropout Early Warning System in Wisconsin (United States)

    Knowles, Jared E.


    The state of Wisconsin has one of the highest four year graduation rates in the nation, but deep disparities among student subgroups remain. To address this the state has created the Wisconsin Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS), a predictive model of student dropout risk for students in grades six through nine. The Wisconsin DEWS is in use…

  9. Investigation on forecasting and warning systems, experience from a project in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Axelsen, Jørgen Aagaard; Munk, Lisa; Ørum, Jens Erik


    This paper is dealing with the results of a knowledge synthesis on monitoring, warning and decision systems made for the Danish environmental protection agency during 2011. The knowledge synthesis document is a volume of about 160 pages written in Danish and the present paper is the English versi...

  10. An integrated methodology to develop a standard for landslide early warning systems


    Fathani, Teuku Faisal; Karnawati, Dwikorita; Wilopo, Wahyu


    Landslides are one of the most widespread and commonly occurring natural hazards. In regions of high vulnerability, these complex hazards can cause significant negative social and economic impacts. Considering the worldwide susceptibility to landslides, it is necessary to establish a standard for early warning systems specific to landslide disaster risk reduction. This standard would provide guidance in conducting landslide detection, prediction, interpretation, and response...

  11. A Mobile Device System for Early Warning of ECG Anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Szczepański


    Full Text Available With the rapid increase in computational power of mobile devices the amount of ambient intelligence-based smart environment systems has increased greatly in recent years. A proposition of such a solution is described in this paper, namely real time monitoring of an electrocardiogram (ECG signal during everyday activities for identification of life threatening situations. The paper, being both research and review, describes previous work of the authors, current state of the art in the context of the authors’ work and the proposed aforementioned system. Although parts of the solution were described in earlier publications of the authors, the whole concept is presented completely for the first time along with the prototype implementation on mobile device—a Windows 8 tablet with Modern UI. The system has three main purposes. The first goal is the detection of sudden rapid cardiac malfunctions and informing the people in the patient’s surroundings, family and friends and the nearest emergency station about the deteriorating health of the monitored person. The second goal is a monitoring of ECG signals under non-clinical conditions to detect anomalies that are typically not found during diagnostic tests. The third goal is to register and analyze repeatable, long-term disturbances in the regular signal and finding their patterns.

  12. Brake reactions of distracted drivers to pedestrian Forward Collision Warning systems. (United States)

    Lubbe, Nils


    Forward Collision Warning (FCW) can be effective in directing driver attention towards a conflict and thereby aid in preventing or mitigating collisions. FCW systems aiming at pedestrian protection have been introduced onto the market, yet an assessment of their safety benefits depends on the accurate modeling of driver reactions when the system is activated. This study contributes by quantifying brake reaction time and brake behavior (deceleration levels and jerk) to compare the effectiveness of an audio-visual warning only, an added haptic brake pulse warning, and an added Head-Up Display in reducing the frequency of collisions with pedestrians. Further, this study provides a detailed data set suited for the design of assessment methods for car-to-pedestrian FCW systems. Brake response characteristics were measured for heavily distracted drivers who were subjected to a single FCW event in a high-fidelity driving simulator. The drivers maintained a self-regulated speed of 30km/h in an urban area, with gaze direction diverted from the forward roadway by a secondary task. Collision rates and brake reaction times differed significantly across FCW settings. Brake pulse warnings resulted in the lowest number of collisions and the shortest brake reaction times (mean 0.8s, SD 0.29s). Brake jerk and deceleration were independent of warning type. Ninety percent of drivers exceeded a maximum deceleration of 3.6m/s 2 and a jerk of 5.3m/s 3 . Brake pulse warning was the most effective FCW interface for preventing collisions. In addition, this study presents the data required for driver modeling for car-to-pedestrian FCW similar to Euro NCAP's 2015 car-to-car FCW assessment. Practical applications: Vehicle manufacturers should consider the introduction of brake pulse warnings to their FCW systems. Euro NCAP could introduce an assessment that quantifies the safety benefits of pedestrian FCW systems and thereby aid the proliferation of effective systems. Copyright © 2017

  13. An Early-Warning System for Volcanic Ash Dispersal: The MAFALDA Procedure (United States)

    Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.


    Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash is a fundamental goal in order to mitigate its potential impact on urbanized areas and transport routes surrounding explosive volcanoes. To this aim we developed an early- warning procedure named MAFALDA (Modeling And Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere). Such tool is able to quantitatively forecast the atmospheric concentration of ash as well as the ground deposition as a function of time over a 3D spatial domain.\\The main features of MAFALDA are: (1) the use of the hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian code VOL-CALPUFF able to describe both the rising column phase and the atmospheric dispersal as a function of weather conditions, (2) the use of high-resolution weather forecasting data, (3) the short execution time that allows to analyse a set of scenarios and (4) the web-based CGI software application (written in Perl programming language) that shows the results in a standard graphical web interface and makes it suitable as an early-warning system during volcanic crises.\\MAFALDA is composed by a computational part that simulates the ash cloud dynamics and a graphical interface for visualizing the modelling results. The computational part includes the codes for elaborating the meteorological data, the dispersal code and the post-processing programs. These produces hourly 2D maps of aerial ash concentration at several vertical levels, extension of "threat" area on air and 2D maps of ash deposit on the ground, in addition to graphs of hourly variations of column height.\\The processed results are available on the web by the graphical interface and the users can choose, by drop-down menu, which data to visualize. \\A first partial application of the procedure has been carried out for Mt. Etna (Italy). In this case, the procedure simulates four volcanological scenarios characterized by different plume intensities and uses 48-hrs weather forecasting data with a resolution of 7 km provided by the Italian Air Force.

  14. Surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China: From 2012 to 2014. (United States)

    Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Liping; Lai, Shengjie; Li, Zhongjie; Sun, Qiao; Zhang, Peng


    Appropriate surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases have very useful roles in disease control and prevention. In 2004, China established the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Public Health Emergency Event Surveillance System to report disease surveillance and events on the basis of data sources from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System, China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in this country. This study provided a descriptive summary and a data analysis, from 2012 to 2014, of these 3 key surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China with the intent to provide suggestions for system improvement and perfection. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Finnish early warning system for nuclear emergencies: Experiences during 2000-2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesterbacka, K.; Lahtinen, J.; Ilander, T. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Research and Environmental Surveillance, Helsinki (Finland)


    The Finnish early warning system for nuclear emergencies consists of the nation-wide automatic external dose-rate monitoring network and the control system, which is known as USVA. The monitoring network comprises of approx. 300 AAM95 central stations and substations equipped with RD-02 or RD-02L GM tubes. Stations are thoroughly inspected on a routine basis every 4-5 years. During the inspection the GM tube, battery and power adapters of the station are replaced with new ones, as is also the modem if necessary, and the alarm connections to USVA are tested. The USVA system utilizes advanced www technology (including a browser-based, easy-to-use user interface) and a network of PCs with dedicated tasks. USVA's central hardware is located at STUK. USVA began its operation in the beginning of the year 2000, replacing the older y2k incompatible system. In a routine situation, USVA collects the monitoring data once a day. The USVA is capable of connecting (via telephone lines) to eight AAM stations concurrently, and the results from the whole country are obtained in about 15 minutes. When the system receives an alarm message from the network, it sends a text message to the mobile phones defined in a separate list and starts an automatic data collection procedure at all the stations situated within a certain distance (100 km) from the alarm-causing station. (orig.)

  16. Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide (United States)

    Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José


    During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena

  17. Management of natural crises with choreography and orchestration of federated warning-systems (United States)

    Haener, Rainer; Waechter, Joachim; Hammitzsch, Martin


    The project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme focuses on real-time intelligent information management in earth management. The addressed challenges include the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration of existing resources, components and systems. Key challenge for TRIDEC is establishing a network of independent systems, cooperatively interacting as a collective in a system-of-systems (SoS). For this purpose TRIDEC adopts enhancements of service-oriented architecture (SOA) principles in terms of an event-driven architecture (EDA) design (SOA 2.0). In this way TRIDEC establishes large-scale concurrent and intelligent information management of a manifold of crisis types by focusing on the integration of autonomous, task-oriented and geographically distributed systems. To this end TRIDEC adapts both ways SOA 2.0 offers: orchestration and choreography. In orchestration, a central knowledge-based processing framework takes control over the involved services and coordinates their execution. Choreography on the other hand avoids central coordination. Rather, each system involved in the SoS follows a global scenario without a single point of control but specifically defined (enacted, agreed upon) trigger conditions. More than orchestration choreography allows collaborative business processes of various heterogeneous sub-systems (e.g. cooperative decision making) by concurrent Complex Event Processing (CEP) and asynchronous communication. These types of interaction adapt the concept of decoupled relationships between information producers (e.g. sensors and sensor systems) and information consumers (e.g. warning systems and warning dissemination systems). Asynchronous communication is useful if a participant wants to trigger specific actions by delegating the responsibility (separation of concerns

  18. Risk assessment and early warning systems for industrial facilities in seismic zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salzano, Ernesto; Garcia Agreda, Anita; Di Carluccio, Antonio; Fabbrocino, Giovanni


    Industrial equipments and systems can suffer structural damage when hit by earthquakes, so that accidental scenarios as fire, explosion and dispersion of toxic substances can take place. As a result, overall damage to people, environment and properties increases. The present paper deals with seismic risk analysis of industrial facilities where atmospheric storage tanks (anchored or unanchored to ground), horizontal pressurised tanks, reactors and pumps are installed. Simplified procedures and methodologies based on historical database and literature data on natural-technological (Na-Tech) accidents for seismic risk assessment are discussed. Equipment-specific fragility curves have been thus derived depending on a single earthquake measure, peak ground acceleration (PGA). Fragility parameters have been then transformed to linear probit coefficients in order to obtain reliable threshold values for earthquake intensity measure, both for structural damage and loss of containment. These threshold values are of great interest when development of active and passive mitigation actions and systems, safety management, and the implementation of early warning system are concerned. The approach is general and can be implemented in any available code or procedure for risk assessment. Some results of seismic analysis of atmospheric storage tanks are also presented for validation.

  19. Development of an expert system for tsunami warning: a unit source approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roshan, A.D.; Pisharady, Ajai S.; Bishnoi, L.R.; Shah, Meet


    Coastal region of India has been experiencing tsunamis since historical times. Many nuclear facilities including nuclear power plants (NPPs), located along the coast are thus exposed to the hazards of tsunami. For the safety of these facilities as well as the safety of the citizens it is necessary to predict the possibility of occurrence of tsunamis for a recorded earthquake event and evaluate the tsunami hazard posed by the earthquake. To address these concerns, this work aims to design an expert system for Tsunami Warning for the Indian Coast with emphasis on evaluation of tsunami heights and arrival times at various nuclear facility sites. The expert system identifies possibility or otherwise of a tsunamigenic event based on earthquake data inputs. Rupture parameters are worked out for the event and unit tsunami source estimations which are available as precomputed database are combined appropriately to estimate the wave heights and time of arrivals at desired locations along the coast. The system also predicts tsunami wave heights at some pre-defined locations such as Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and other nuclear facility sites. Time of arrivals of first wave along Indian coast is also evaluated

  20. An 'Early Warning System' for the prevention of dredging potential impacts on sensitive areas (United States)

    Piermattei, Viviana; Martellucci, Riccardo; Pierattini, Alberto; Bonamano, Simone; Paladini de Mendoza, Francesco; Albani, Marta; Stefanì, Chiara; Madonia, Alice; Fersini, Giorgio; Marcelli, Marco


    Coastal marine ecosystems are increasingly subject to multiple pressures and stressors produced by the effects of human activities. Intense and frequent disturbances which affect marine environment can derive from dredging activity, which is a fundamental management for most ports and harbours. The potential environmental effects of dredging procedures are generally due to the excavation of material from the sea bottom and the relocation elsewhere for disposal, overflow from the dredger and loss of material from pipelines during transport. Depending on the location and the intensity of these activities the marine environment, particularly sensitive areas, may be affected by dredging. The main environmental effects can be associated with suspended sediments and increases in turbidity into the water column, which can have adverse effects on marine animals and plants by reducing light penetration and by physical disturbance. For this reason it is fundamental to implement a real time monitoring system to control and prevent negative effects, enabling a rapid response to adverse water quality conditions and a fast activation of mitigation procedures, in agreement with all the reference authorities. In this work we present the development of an innovative 'Early Warning System' based on fixed stations, ad hoc in situ surveys and forecasting models, which was applied to a dredging activity carried out in the Gulf of Gaeta (Latium, Italy). It represents an extension of the C-CEMS (Civitavecchia Coastal Environmental Monitoring System) network, which is operative in the Tyrrhenian sea since 2005.

  1. Synergistic combination of systems for structural health monitoring and earthquake early warning for structural health prognosis and diagnosis (United States)

    Wu, Stephen; Beck, James L.


    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are currently operating nationwide in Japan and are in beta-testing in California. Such a system detects an earthquake initiation using online signals from a seismic sensor network and broadcasts a warning of the predicted location and magnitude a few seconds to a minute or so before an earthquake hits a site. Such a system can be used synergistically with installed structural health monitoring (SHM) systems to enhance pre-event prognosis and post-event diagnosis of structural health. For pre-event prognosis, the EEW system information can be used to make probabilistic predictions of the anticipated damage to a structure using seismic loss estimation methodologies from performance-based earthquake engineering. These predictions can support decision-making regarding the activation of appropriate mitigation systems, such as stopping traffic from entering a bridge that has a predicted high probability of damage. Since the time between warning and arrival of the strong shaking is very short, probabilistic predictions must be rapidly calculated and the decision making automated for the mitigation actions. For post-event diagnosis, the SHM sensor data can be used in Bayesian updating of the probabilistic damage predictions with the EEW predictions as a prior. Appropriate Bayesian methods for SHM have been published. In this paper, we use pre-trained surrogate models (or emulators) based on machine learning methods to make fast damage and loss predictions that are then used in a cost-benefit decision framework for activation of a mitigation measure. A simple illustrative example of an infrastructure application is presented.

  2. Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.


    Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

  3. Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred. (United States)

    Basher, Reid


    To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

  4. Forward collision warning based on kernelized correlation filters (United States)

    Pu, Jinchuan; Liu, Jun; Zhao, Yong


    A vehicle detection and tracking system is one of the indispensable methods to reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents. The nearest vehicle is the most likely to cause harm to us. So, this paper will do more research on about the nearest vehicle in the region of interest (ROI). For this system, high accuracy, real-time and intelligence are the basic requirement. In this paper, we set up a system that combines the advanced KCF tracking algorithm with the HaarAdaBoost detection algorithm. The KCF algorithm reduces computation time and increase the speed through the cyclic shift and diagonalization. This algorithm satisfies the real-time requirement. At the same time, Haar features also have the same advantage of simple operation and high speed for detection. The combination of this two algorithm contribute to an obvious improvement of the system running rate comparing with previous works. The detection result of the HaarAdaBoost classifier provides the initial value for the KCF algorithm. This fact optimizes KCF algorithm flaws that manual car marking in the initial phase, which is more scientific and more intelligent. Haar detection and KCF tracking with Histogram of Oriented Gradient (HOG) ensures the accuracy of the system. We evaluate the performance of framework on dataset that were self-collected. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is robust and real-time. The algorithm can effectively adapt to illumination variation, even in the night it can meet the detection and tracking requirements, which is an improvement compared with the previous work.

  5. Utility of temporary aftershock warning system in the immediate aftermath of large damaging earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harben, P.E.; Jarpe, S.P.; Hunter, S.; Johnston, C.A.


    An aftershock warning system (AWS) is a real-time warning system that is deployed immediately after a large damaging earthquake in the epicentral region of the main shock. The primary purpose of such a system is to warn rescue teams and workers within damaged structures of imminent destructive shaking. The authors have examined the utility of such a system (1) by evaluating historical data, and (2) by developing and testing a prototype system during the 1992 Landers, California, aftershock sequence. Analyzing historical data is important in determining when and where damaging aftershocks are likely to occur and the probable usefulness of an AWS in a particular region. As part of this study, they analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of large (magnitude >5.0) aftershocks from earthquakes with magnitudes >6.0 that took place between 1942 and 1991 in California and Nevada. They found that one-quarter of these large aftershocks occurred from 2 days-2 months after the main event, nearly one-half occurred within the first two days of the main event, and greater than one-half occurred within 20 km of the main shock's epicenter. They also reviewed a case study of the 1985 Mexico City earthquake, which showed that an AWS could have given Mexico City a warning of ∼60 sec before the magnitude 7.6 aftershock that occurred 36 hr. after the main event. They deployed a four-station prototype AWS near Landers after a magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred on June 28, 1992. The aftershock data, collected from July 3-10, showed that the aftershocks in the vicinity of the four stations varied in magnitude from 3.0-4.4. Using a two-station detection criterion to minimize false alarms, this AWS reliably discriminated between smaller and larger aftershocks within 3 sec of the origin time of the events. This prototype could have provided 6 sec of warning to Palm Springs and 20 sec of warning to San Bernardino of aftershocks occurring in the main-shock epicentral region

  6. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals. (United States)

    Wu, Yih-Min; Kanamori, Hiroo


    As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τ c and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV) could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τ c and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  7. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroo Kanamori


    Full Text Available As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τc and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τc and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  8. Sensing the danger. Can tsunami early warning systems benefit from test ban monitoring?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerbo, L.


    An editorial in the February 2005 edition of the Magazine for European Research pointed to the very issue of responsibility: Improvements are always possible, of course, but the very nature of a 'natural disaster' is that while not entirely absolving humans of responsibility it surpasses our means to deal with and even understand the forces at work. But science can help enhance our knowledge. For if there is one subject that the Asian tragedy has highlighted, it is the importance of putting in place coordinated early warning systems for earthquakes and, in particular, the absence of effective monitoring of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. A concerted effort is now being made to develop a coordinated system of systems - bringing together organizations and initiatives that together can put in place an early warning system. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), set-up to monitor adherence to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, is one organization seen to contribute to a coordinated early warning system

  9. Prototype Early Warning Fire Detection System: Test Series 4 Results

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gottuk, Daniel


    .... The use of multiple sensors and the Probabilistic Neural Networks alarm algorithm in the EWFD system resulted in improved performance compared to only an ionization or photoelectric smoke detector...

  10. Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach


    Gurnain Pasricha; Tom Roberts; Ian Christensen; Brad Howell


    This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use...

  11. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System for the Turkish and Portuguese NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenarios (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Reißland, Sven; Schulz, Jana


    On November 27-28, 2012, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) joined other countries in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region as participants in an international tsunami response exercise. The exercise, titled NEAMWave12, simulated widespread Tsunami Watch situations throughout the NEAM region. It is the first international exercise as such, in this region, where the UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS tsunami warning chain has been tested to a full scale for the first time with different systems. One of the systems is developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) and has been validated in this exercise among others by KOERI and IPMA. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing related challenges. The first and second phase system demonstrator, deployed at KOERI's crisis management room and deployed at IPMA has been designed and implemented, firstly, to support plausible scenarios for the Turkish NTWC and for the Portuguese NTWC to demonstrate the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a NTWC. Secondly, the feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering ICG/NEAMTWS standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions beyond ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes for hypothetical tsunami-related crisis situations in the context of

  12. Design and challenges for a tsunami early warning system in the Marmara Sea (United States)

    Necmioğlu, Öcal


    Since 1900, around 90,000 people have lost their lives in 76 earthquakes in Turkey, with a total affected population of around 7 million and direct losses of around 25 billion USD. Based on a time-dependent model that includes coseismic and post-seismic effects of the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake with moment magnitude Mw = 7.4, Parsons (J Geophys Res. 109, 2004) concluded that the probability of an earthquake with Mw > 7 in the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul is 35 to 70 % in the next 30 years. According to a 2011 study, an earthquake with Mw = 7.25 on the Main Marmara Fault is expected to heavily damage or destroy 2 to 4 % of around 1,000,000 buildings in Istanbul with a population around 13 million, with 9 to 15 % of the buildings receiving medium damage and 20 to 34 % of the buildings damaged lightly (Erdik, Science 341:72, 2013). In the absence of adequate post-earthquake assembly areas especially in the heavily urbanized Istanbul, it is evident that after a major earthquake, especially in the coastal parts of the city, citizens would be storming to landfill assembly and recreational areas. Besides earthquakes, around 30 tsunamis have been reported by Altınok et al. (Natural Hazards Earth System Science 11:273-293, 2011) in the Marmara Sea. Among those, catastrophic earthquakes such as 1509, 1766, and 1894 resulted in considerable tsunamis and some damage. The latest tsunami observed in Marmara was due to a triggered submarine landslide of the 1999 Mw = 7.4 Kocaeli earthquake which led to reported run-up heights of 1-3 m in most places (Tinti et al., Marine Geology 225:311-330, 2006). In this study, I propose a design for a tsunami warning system specific for the Marmara region that is strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system (due to the short arrival times of tsunami) and stakeholders of the tsunami mitigation activities, such as local and regional components of disaster and emergency management and civil protection units, to ensure that the citizens

  13. Updated Heliostorm Warning Mission: Enhancements Based on New Technology (United States)

    Young, Roy M.


    The Heliostorm (also referred to as Geostorm) mission has been regarded as the best choice for the first application of solar sail technology. The objective of Heliostorm is to obtain data from an orbit station slightly displaced from the ecliptic at or nearer to the Sun than 0.98 AU, which places it twice as close to the sun as Earth's natural L1 point at 0.993 AU. Heliostorm has been the subject of several mission studies over the past decade, with the most complete study conducted in 1999 in conjunction with a proposed New Millennium Program (NMP) Space Technology 5 (ST-5) flight opportunity. Recently, over a two and one-half year period dating from 2002 through 2005, NASA s In-Space Propulsion Technology Program (ISTP) matured solar sail technology from laboratory components to fully integrated systems, demonstrated in as relevant a space environment as could feasibly be simulated on the ground. Work under this program has yielded promising results for enhanced Heliostorm mission performance. This paper will present the preliminary results of an updated Heliostorm mission design study including the enhancements incorporated during the design, development, analysis and testing of the system ground demonstrator.

  14. An archival analysis of stall warning system effectiveness during airborne icing encounters (United States)

    Maris, John Michael

    An archival study was conducted to determine the influence of stall warning system performance on aircrew decision-making outcomes during airborne icing encounters. A Conservative Icing Response Bias (CIRB) model was developed to explain the historical variability in aircrew performance in the face of airframe icing. The model combined Bayes' Theorem with Signal Detection Theory (SDT) concepts to yield testable predictions that were evaluated using a Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) multivariate technique applied to two archives: the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident database, and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident databases, both covering the period January 1, 1988 to October 2, 2015. The CIRB model predicted that aircrew would experience more incorrect response outcomes in the face of missed stall warnings than with stall warning False Alarms. These predicted outcomes were observed at high significance levels in the final sample of 132 NASA/NTSB cases. The CIRB model had high sensitivity and specificity, and explained 71.5% (Nagelkerke R2) of the variance of aircrew decision-making outcomes during the icing encounters. The reliability and validity metrics derived from this study suggest indicate that the findings are generalizable to the population of U.S. registered turbine-powered aircraft. These findings suggest that icing-related stall events could be reduced if the incidence of stall warning Misses could be minimized. Observed stall warning Misses stemmed from three principal causes: aerodynamic icing effects, which reduced the stall angle-of-attack (AoA) to below the stall warning calibration threshold; tail stalls, which are not monitored by contemporary protection systems; and icing-induced system issues (such as frozen pitot tubes), which compromised stall warning system effectiveness and airframe envelope protections. Each of these sources of missed stall warnings could be addressed by Aerodynamic Performance

  15. Short term prediction of the horizontal wind vector within a wake vortex warning system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frech, M.; Holzaepfel, F.; Gerz, T. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Konopka, J. [Deutsche Flugsicherung (DFS) GmbH, Langen (Germany)


    A wake vortex warning system (WVWS) has been developed for Frankfurt airport. This airport has two parallel runways which are separated by 518 m, a distance too short to operate them independently because wake vortices may be advected to the adjacent runway. The objective of the WVWS is to enable operation with reduced separation between two aircraft approaching the parallel runways at appropriate wind conditions. The WVWS applies a statistical persistence model to predict the crosswind within a 20 minute period. One of the main problems identified in the old WVWS are discontinuities between successive forecasts. These forecast breakdowns were not acceptable to airtraffic controllers. At least part of the problem was related to the fact that the forecast was solely based on the prediction of crosswind. A new method is developed on the basis of 523 days of sonic anemometer measurements at Frankfurt airport. It is demonstrated that the prediction of the horizontal wind vector avoids these difficulties and significantly improves the system's performance. (orig.)

  16. Use of SEVIRI images and derived products in a WMO Sand and dust Storm Warning System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MartInez, M A; Ruiz, J; Cuevas, E [Agencia Estatal de MeteorologIa (AEMET) (Spain)], E-mail:


    The Visible/IR images of SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager), on board Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites, are used to monitor dust events. Satellite-based detection of dust is a difficult problem due in part to the observing-system limitations. The main difficulty is that the dust can be confused with water/ice clouds. SEVIRI is not as optimal for the viewing of dust as SEAWIFS or MODIS, due to the fact that both of them count with additional short-wavelength channels. However, the SEVIRI 15-minute loop images can detect small dust plumes as well as subtle changes from one image to the next. A description of how the AEMET, former INM, is developing the environment to support MSG satellite imagery to the WMO/GEO Sand and Dust Storm Warning System (SDS WS) for Europe, Africa and Middle East Regional Centre will be briefly presented, together with some on-going operational developments to best monitor dust events.

  17. User interface prototype for geospatial early warning systems - a tsunami showcase (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.; Esbrí, M. Á.


    The command and control unit's graphical user interface (GUI) is a central part of early warning systems (EWS) for man-made and natural hazards. The GUI combines and concentrates the relevant information of the system and offers it to human operators. It has to support operators successfully performing their tasks in complex workflows. Most notably in critical situations when operators make important decisions in a limited amount of time, the command and control unit's GUI has to work reliably and stably, providing the relevant information and functionality with the required quality and in time. The design of the GUI application is essential in the development of any EWS to manage hazards effectively. The design and development of such GUI is performed repeatedly for each EWS by various software architects and developers. Implementations differ based on their application in different domains. But similarities designing and equal approaches implementing GUIs of EWS are not quite harmonized enough with related activities and do not exploit possible synergy effects. Thus, the GUI's implementation of an EWS for tsunamis is successively introduced, providing a generic approach to be applied in each EWS for man-made and natural hazards.

  18. User interface prototype for geospatial early warning systems – a tsunami showcase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hammitzsch


    Full Text Available The command and control unit's graphical user interface (GUI is a central part of early warning systems (EWS for man-made and natural hazards. The GUI combines and concentrates the relevant information of the system and offers it to human operators. It has to support operators successfully performing their tasks in complex workflows. Most notably in critical situations when operators make important decisions in a limited amount of time, the command and control unit's GUI has to work reliably and stably, providing the relevant information and functionality with the required quality and in time.

    The design of the GUI application is essential in the development of any EWS to manage hazards effectively. The design and development of such GUI is performed repeatedly for each EWS by various software architects and developers. Implementations differ based on their application in different domains. But similarities designing and equal approaches implementing GUIs of EWS are not quite harmonized enough with related activities and do not exploit possible synergy effects. Thus, the GUI's implementation of an EWS for tsunamis is successively introduced, providing a generic approach to be applied in each EWS for man-made and natural hazards.

  19. [Design and Application of High-risk Pregnancy Monitoring & Warning Internet Platform Based on Internet of Things]. (United States)

    Lu, Heqing; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Li, Bin


    Through illustrating the designing of high-risk pregnancy maternal-fetal monitoring system based on the internet of things, this paper introduced the specific application of using wearable medical devices to provide maternal-fetal mobile medical services. With the help of big data and cloud obstetrics platform, the monitoring and warning network was further improved, the level-to-level administration of high-risk pregnancy was realized, the level of perinatal health care was enhanced and the risk of critical emergency of pregnancy decreased.

  20. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth


    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  1. Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning (United States)

    Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.


    Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early

  2. Strengthening Laboratory Capacity for Early Warning Alert and Response System (EWARS) in Indonesia


    Kandel, Nirmal; Hapsari, Ratna Budi; Riana, Dyah Armi; Setiawaty, Vivi; Larasati, Wita; Wulandari, Endang; Purwanto, Edy


    Background: Establishment of Early Warning Alert and Response System (EWARS) in Indonesia was initiated since 2009 in few selected provinces and government was planning to roll out in other provinces. Before initiating this roll out the assessment of performance of EWARS in 2012 was conducted. The aim of the assessment is to strengthen laboratory for supporting to EWARS for alerts testing. Methods: Laboratory capacity mapping tool and laboratory algorithm for twenty two priority diseases of ...

  3. The Ex Hoc Infrastructure - Enhancing Traffic Safety through LIfe WArning Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael; Eskildsen, Toke


    New pervasive computing technologies for sensing and communication open up novel possibilities for enhancing traffic safety. We are currently designing and implementing the Ex Hoc infrastructure framework for communication among mobile and stationary units including vehicles. The infrastructure...... will connect sensing devices on vehicles with sensing devices on other vehicles and with stationary communication units placed alongside roads. The current application of Ex Hoc is to enable the collection and dissemination of information on road condition through LIfe Warning Systems (LIWAS) units....

  4. Big data system for disaster warning of solar greenhouse vegetables


    Li, M; Zhao, L; Chen, M; Wen, D; Liu, R; Yang, X


    Background: Solar greenhouses are very popular in the north of China as a way of meeting the demand for fresh local winter vegetables. Nonetheless, they are more susceptible to biological and meteorological disasters, such as diseases, pests, fog, haze and cold temperatures. Although we have deployed many record keeping equipment and weather stations, we have lower efficiency of usage on data. Big data has great potential in the future. Thus, our aim is to investigate a big data system for di...

  5. A new warning system for fires of electrical origin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pietersen, A.H.


    The method described enables overheating to be detected at the incipient stage of a five. Freon-filled microcapsules are applied in the form of powder or paint to the surfaces being monitored. The microcapsules burst at a given temperature and the released freon can be sensed by halogen detectors coupled to the normal smoke-detector system. Alternatively, the noise of the bursting microcapsules can be simply detected by microphones. (Auth.)

  6. Cascade reservoir flood control operation based on risk grading and warning in the Upper Yellow River (United States)

    Xuejiao, M.; Chang, J.; Wang, Y.


    Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the main idea for flood management. It is more effective for flood risk management to take various non-engineering measures. In this paper, a flood control operation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River was proposed to lower the flood risk of the water system with multi-reservoir by combining the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) and flood early warning together. Specifically, a discharge control chart was employed to build the joint RFCO simulation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River. And entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to establish a multi-factorial risk assessment model for flood warning grade. Furthermore, after determining the implementing mode of countermeasures with future inflow, an intelligent optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model for applicable water release scheme. In addition, another model without any countermeasure was set to be a comparative experiment. The results show that the model developed in this paper can further decrease the flood risk of water system with cascade reservoirs. It provides a new approach to flood risk management by coupling flood control operation and flood early warning of cascade reservoirs.

  7. An intelligent IoT emergency vehicle warning system using RFID and Wi-Fi technologies for emergency medical services. (United States)

    Lai, Yeong-Lin; Chou, Yung-Hua; Chang, Li-Chih


    Collisions between emergency vehicles for emergency medical services (EMS) and public road users have been a serious problem, impacting on the safety of road users, emergency medical technicians (EMTs), and the patients on board. The aim of this study is to develop a novel intelligent emergency vehicle warning system for EMS applications. The intelligent emergency vehicle warning system is developed by Internet of Things (IoT), radio-frequency identification (RFID), and Wi-Fi technologies. The system consists of three major parts: a system trigger tag, an RFID system in an emergency vehicle, and an RFID system at an intersection. The RFID system either in an emergency vehicle or at an intersection contains a controller, an ultrahigh-frequency (UHF) RFID reader module, a Wi-Fi module, and a 2.4-GHz antenna. In addition, a UHF ID antenna is especially designed for the RFID system in an emergency vehicle. The IoT system provides real-time visual warning at an intersection and siren warning from an emergency vehicle in order to effectively inform road users about an emergency vehicle approaching. The developed intelligent IoT emergency vehicle warning system demonstrates the capabilities of real-time visual and siren warnings for EMS safety.

  8. Performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems during the Major Events of the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence. (United States)

    Festa, G.; Picozzi, M.; Alessandro, C.; Colombelli, S.; Cattaneo, M.; Chiaraluce, L.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Marzorati, S.; Supino, M.; Zollo, A.


    Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are systems nowadays contributing to the seismic risk mitigation actions, both in terms of losses and societal resilience, by issuing an alert promptly after the earthquake origin and before the ground shaking impacts the targets to be protected. EEWS systems can be grouped in two main classes: network based and stand-alone systems. Network based EEWS make use of dense seismic networks surrounding the fault (e.g. Near Fault Observatory; NFO) generating the event. The rapid processing of the P-wave early portion allows for the location and magnitude estimation of the event then used to predict the shaking through ground motion prediction equations. Stand-alone systems instead analyze the early P-wave signal to predict the ground shaking carried by the late S or surface waves, through empirically calibrated scaling relationships, at the recording site itself. We compared the network-based (PRESTo, PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem,, Satriano et al., 2011) and the stand-alone (SAVE, on-Site-Alert-leVEl, Caruso et al., 2017) systems, by analyzing their performance during the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence. We analyzed 9 earthquakes having magnitude 5.0 security actions. PRESTo also evaluated the accuracy of location and magnitude. Both systems well predict the ground shaking nearby the event source, with a success rate around 90% within the potential damage zone. The lead-time is significantly larger for the network based system, increasing to more than 10s at 40 km from the event epicentre. The stand-alone system better performs in the near-source region showing a positive albeit small lead-time (operational in Italy, based on the available acceleration networks, by improving the capability of reducing the lead-time related to data telemetry.

  9. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceccato Pietro


    Full Text Available Abstract Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to

  10. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa (United States)

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.


    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

  11. Early warning scores: a sign of deterioration in patients and systems

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Fox, A


    The early warning score is a decision-making tool that has a simple design, yet its implementation in healthcare organisations is proving complex. This article reports the results of a survey that evaluated the nurses’ experiences of using the NEWS (National Early Warning Score) in an acute hospital in Ireland. Staff reported that the NEWS was easy to use, did not increase workload and enhanced their ability to identify deteriorating patients. However, they also identified problems related to doctors’ delayed response times, doctors lack of training in the use of the tool, and a failure by doctors to modify parameters for patients with chronic conditions. NEWS enhances nurses’ role in early detection of patient deterioration but delays in response times by doctors, exposes systematic flaws in healthcare. This suggests that it is not only an indicator of patient deterioration but also of deteriorating healthcare systems.

  12. A new M w estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems (United States)

    Wang, Zijun; Zhao, Boming


    We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral ( ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ c and P d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M s ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.

  13. Developing and testing an Early Warning System for Non Indigenous Species and Ballast Water Management (United States)

    Magaletti, Erika; Garaventa, Francesca; David, Matej; Castriota, Luca; Kraus, Romina; Luna, Gian Marco; Silvestri, Cecilia; Forte, Cosmo; Bastianini, Mauro; Falautano, Manuela; Maggio, Teresa; Rak, Giulietta; Gollasch, Stephan


    This paper describes the methodological approach used for the development of an Early Warning System (EWS) for Non Indigenous Species (NIS) and ballast water management and summarizes the results obtained. The specific goals of the EWS are firstly to warn vessels to prevent loading of ballast water when critical biological conditions occur in ports and surrounding areas i.e. mass development or blooms of Harmful Aquatic Organisms and Pathogens (HAOP). Secondly, to warn environmental and health authorities when NIS or pathogens are present in ports or surrounding areas to enable an early response and an implementation of remediation measures. The EWS is designed to be used for implementing various parallel obligations, by taking into consideration different legal scopes, associated information and decision-making needs. The EWS was elaborated, tested in the Adriatic Sea and illustrated by two case studies. Although the EWS was developed with an Adriatic Sea focus, it is presented in a format so that it may be used as a model when establishing similar systems in other locations. The role of the various actors is discussed and recommendations on further developments of the EWS are presented. It was concluded that the EWS is a suitable tool to reduce the spread of potentially harmful and ballast water mediated species.

  14. An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis (United States)

    Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong


    The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

  15. Establishing the fundamentals for an elephant early warning and monitoring system. (United States)

    Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Stoeger, Angela S


    The decline of habitat for elephants due to expanding human activity is a serious conservation problem. This has continuously escalated the human-elephant conflict in Africa and Asia. Elephants make extensive use of powerful infrasonic calls (rumbles) that travel distances of up to several kilometers. This makes elephants well-suited for acoustic monitoring because it enables detecting elephants even if they are out of sight. In sight, their distinct visual appearance makes them a good candidate for visual monitoring. We provide an integrated overview of our interdisciplinary project that established the scientific fundamentals for a future early warning and monitoring system for humans who regularly experience serious conflict with elephants. We first draw the big picture of an early warning and monitoring system, then review the developed solutions for automatic acoustic and visual detection, discuss specific challenges and present open future work necessary to build a robust and reliable early warning and monitoring system that is able to operate in situ. We present a method for the automated detection of elephant rumbles that is robust to the diverse noise sources present in situ. We evaluated the method on an extensive set of audio data recorded under natural field conditions. Results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches and accurately detects elephant rumbles. Our visual detection method shows that tracking elephants in wildlife videos (of different sizes and postures) is feasible and particularly robust at near distances. From our project results we draw a number of conclusions that are discussed and summarized. We clearly identified the most critical challenges and necessary improvements of the proposed detection methods and conclude that our findings have the potential to form the basis for a future automated early warning system for elephants. We discuss challenges that need to be solved and summarize open topics in the context of

  16. Population-based study of capsular warning syndrome and prognosis after early recurrent TIA. (United States)

    Paul, Nicola L M; Simoni, Michela; Chandratheva, Arvind; Rothwell, Peter M


    Many guidelines recommend emergency assessment for patients with ≥2 TIAs within 7 days, perhaps in recognition of the capsular warning syndrome. However, it is unclear whether all patients with multiple TIAs are at high early risk of stroke and whether treatable underlying pathologies are more prevalent in this group. We studied clinical characteristics, Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) classification, and risk of stroke in 1,000 consecutive patients with incident and recurrent TIAs in a prospective, population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study). Of 1,000 patients with TIAs, 170 had a further TIA within 7 days (105 within 24 hours). Multiple TIAs were not associated with carotid stenosis or atrial fibrillation, and much of the 10.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.5-15.9) risk of stroke during the 7 days after the first TIA was due to patients with small-vessel disease (SVD) etiology (10 of 24 vs 8 of 146, odds ratio [OR] = 12.3, 95% CI 3.7-41.9, p TIA was similar to the risk after a single TIA in patients with non-SVD TIA (8 of 146 [5.5%] vs 76 of 830 [9.2%], OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.25-1.3, p = 0.20). Of the 9 patients with stroke after a capsular warning syndrome, all had the recurrent TIA within 24 hours after the first TIA, and the subsequent stroke occurred within 72 hours of the second TIA in 8. The ABCD2 scores of all preceding TIAs were ≥4 in all 9 patients with capsular warning syndrome before stroke. Capsular warning syndrome is rare (1.5% of TIA presentations) but has a poor prognosis (7-day stroke risk of 60%). Otherwise, recurrent TIA within 7 days is not associated with a greater stroke risk than that after a single TIA.

  17. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time. (United States)


    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning time. Each crossing warning system shall be tested for the prescribed warning time at least once every 12 months and when the warning system is...

  18. An electrophysiological study of the impact of a Forward Collision Warning System in a simulator driving task. (United States)

    Bueno, Mercedes; Fabrigoule, Colette; Deleurence, Philippe; Ndiaye, Daniel; Fort, Alexandra


    Driver distraction has been identified as the most important contributing factor in rear-end collisions. In this context, Forward Collision Warning Systems (FCWS) have been developed specifically to warn drivers of potential rear-end collisions. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of a surrogate FCWS and of its reliability according to the driver's attentional state by recording both behavioral and electrophysiological data. Participants drove following a lead motorcycle in a simplified simulator with or without a warning system which gave forewarning of the preceding vehicle braking. Participants had to perform this driving task either alone (simple task) or simultaneously with a secondary cognitive task (dual task). Behavioral and electrophysiological data contributed to revealing a positive effect of the warning system. Participants were faster in detecting the brake light when the system was perfect or imperfect, and the time and attentional resources allocation required for processing the target at higher cognitive level were reduced when the system was completely reliable. When both tasks were performed simultaneously, warning effectiveness was considerably affected at both performance and neural levels; however, the analysis of the brain activity revealed fewer differences between distracted and undistracted drivers when using the warning system. These results show that electrophysiological data could be a valuable tool to complement behavioral data and to have a better understanding of how these systems impact the driver. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Operation of a real-time warning system for debris flows in the San Francisco bay area, California (United States)

    Wilson, Raymond C.; Mark, Robert K.; Barbato, Gary; ,


    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) have developed an operational warning system for debris flows during severe rainstorms in the San Francisco Bay region. The NWS makes quantitative forecasts of precipitation from storm systems approaching the Bay area and coordinates a regional network of radio-telemetered rain gages. The USGS has formulated thresholds for the intensity and duration of rainfall required to initiate debris flows. The first successful public warnings were issued during a severe storm sequence in February 1986. Continued operation of the warning system since 1986 has provided valuable working experience in rainfall forecasting and monitoring, refined rainfall thresholds, and streamlined procedures for issuing public warnings. Advisory statements issued since 1986 are summarized.

  20. Second international tsunami workshop on the technical aspects of tsunami warning systems, tsunami analysis, preparedness, observation and instrumentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The Second Workshop on the Technical Aspects of Tsunami Warning Systems, Tsunami Analysis, Preparedness, Observation, and Instrumentation, sponsored and convened by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), was held on 1-2 August 1989, in the modern and attractive research town of Academgorodok, which is located 20 km south from downtown Novosibirsk, the capital of Siberia, USSR. The Program was arranged in eight major areas of interest covering the following: Opening and Introduction; Survey of Existing Tsunami Warning Centers - present status, results of work, plans for future development; Survey of some existing seismic data processing systems and future projects; Methods for fast evaluation of Tsunami potential and perspectives of their implementation; Tsunami data bases; Tsunami instrumentation and observations; Tsunami preparedness; and finally, a general discussion and adoption of recommendations. The Workshop presentations not only addressed the conceptual improvements that have been made, but focused on the inner workings of the Tsunami Warning System, as well, including computer applications, on-line processing and numerical modelling. Furthermore, presentations reported on progress has been made in the last few years on data telemetry, instrumentation and communications. Emphasis was placed on new concepts and their application into operational techniques that can result in improvements in data collection, rapid processing of the data, in analysis and prediction. A Summary Report on the Second International Tsunami Workshop, containing abstracted and annotated proceedings has been published as a separate report. The present Report is a Supplement to the Summary Report and contains the full text of the papers presented at this Workshop. Refs, figs and tabs

  1. Early warning systems and rapid response to the deteriorating patient in hospital: A realist evaluation. (United States)

    McGaughey, Jennifer; O'Halloran, Peter; Porter, Sam; Trinder, John; Blackwood, Bronagh


    To test the Rapid Response Systems programme theory against actual practice components of the Rapid Response Systems implemented to identify those contexts and mechanisms which have an impact on the successful achievement of desired outcomes in practice. Rapid Response Systems allow deteriorating patients to be recognized using Early Warning Systems, referred early via escalation protocols and managed at the bedside by competent staff. Realist evaluation. The research design was an embedded multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland which followed the principles of Realist Evaluation. We used various mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation of nursing practice between June-November 2010 and document analysis of Early Warning Systems audit data between May-October 2010 and hospital acute care training records over 4.5 years from 2003-2008. Data were analysed using NiVivo8 and SPPS. A cross-case analysis highlighted similar patterns of factors which enabled or constrained successful recognition, referral and response to deteriorating patients in practice. Key enabling factors were the use of clinical judgement by experienced nurses and the empowerment of nurses as a result of organizational change associated with implementation of Early Warning System protocols. Key constraining factors were low staffing and inappropriate skill mix levels, rigid implementation of protocols and culturally embedded suboptimal communication processes. Successful implementation of Rapid Response Systems was dependent on adopting organizational and cultural changes that facilitated staff empowerment, flexible implementation of protocols and ongoing experiential learning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Effectiveness of a Forward Collision Warning System in simple and in dual task from an electrophysiological perspective. (United States)

    Bueno, Mercedes; Fort, Alexandra; Francois, Mathilde; Ndiaye, Daniel; Deleurence, Philippe; Fabrigoule, Colette


    Forward Collision Warning Systems (FCWS) are expected to assist drivers; however, it is not completely clear whether these systems are of benefit to distracted drivers as much as they are to undistracted drivers. This study aims at investigating further the analysis of the effectiveness of a surrogate FCWS according to the attentional state of participants. In this experiment electrophysiological and behavioural data were recording while participants were required to drive in a simple car simulator and to react to the braking of the lead vehicle which could be announced by a warning system. The effectiveness of this warning system was evaluated when drivers were distracted or not by a secondary cognitive task. In a previous study, the warning signal was not completely effective likely due to the presence of another predictor of the forthcoming braking which competes with the warning. By eliminating this secondary predictor in the present study, the results confirmed the negative effect of the secondary task and revealed the expected effectiveness of the warning system at behavioural and electrophysiological levels. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Addressing the Safety of Transportation Cyber-Physical Systems: Development and Validation of a Verbal Warning Utility Scale for Intelligent Transportation Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiqi Zhang


    Full Text Available As an important application of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS, advances in intelligent transportation systems (ITS improve driving safety by informing drivers of hazards with warnings in advance. The evaluation of the warning effectiveness is an important issue in facilitating communication of ITS. The goal of the present study was to develop a scale to evaluate the warning utility, namely, the effectiveness of a warning in preventing accidents in general. A driving simulator study was conducted to validate the Verbal Warning Utility Scale (VWUS in a simulated driving environment. The reliability analysis indicated a good split-half reliability for the VWUS with a Spearman-Brown Coefficient of 0.873. The predictive validity of VWUS in measuring the effectiveness of the verbal warnings was verified by the significant prediction of safety benefits indicated by variables, including reduced kinetic energy and collision rate. Compared to conducting experimental studies, this scale provides a simpler way to evaluate overall utility of verbal warnings in communicating associated hazards in intelligent transportation systems. This scale can be further applied to improve the design of warnings of ITS in order to improve transportation safety. The applications of the scale in nonverbal warning situations and limitations of the current scale are also discussed.

  4. ForWarn: A Cross-Cutting Forest Resource Management and Decision Support System Providing the Capacity to Identify and Track Forest Disturbances Nationally (United States)

    Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Norman, S.; Christie, W.; Hoffman, F. M.


    The Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center and Western Wildland Environmental Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service have collaborated with NASA Stennis Space Center to develop ForWarn, a forest monitoring tool that uses MODIS satellite imagery to produce weekly snapshots of vegetation conditions across the lower 48 United States. Forest and natural resource managers can use ForWarn to rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests caused by insects, diseases, wildfires, severe weather, or other natural or human-caused events. ForWarn detects most types of forest disturbances, including insects, disease, wildfires, frost and ice damage, tornadoes, hurricanes, blowdowns, harvest, urbanization, and landslides. It also detects drought, flood, and temperature effects, and shows early and delayed seasonal vegetation development. Operating continuously since January 2010, results show ForWarn to be a robust and highly capable tool for detecting changes in forest conditions. ForWarn is the first national-scale system of its kind based on remote sensing developed specifically for forest disturbances. It has operated as a prototype since January 2010 and has provided useful information about the location and extent of disturbances detected during the 2011 growing season, including tornadoes, wildfires, and extreme drought. The ForWarn system had an official unveiling and rollout in March 2012, initiated by a joint NASA and USDA press release. The ForWarn home page has had 2,632 unique visitors since rollout in March 2012, with 39% returning visits. ForWarn was used to map tornado scars from the historic April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, and detected timber damage within more than a dozen tornado tracks across northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. ForWarn is the result of an ongoing, substantive cooperation among four different government agencies: USDA, NASA, USGS, and DOE. Disturbance maps are available on the

  5. Usage of Wireless Sensor Networks in a service based spatial data infrastructure for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning (United States)

    Arnhardt, C.; Fernandez-Steeger, T. M.; Walter, K.; Kallash, A.; Niemeyer, F.; Azzam, R.; Bill, R.


    The joint project Sensor based Landslide Early Warning System (SLEWS) aims at a systematic development of a prototyping alarm- and early warning system for the detection of mass movements by application of an ad hoc wireless sensor network (WSN). Next to the development of suitable sensor setups, sensor fusion and network fusion are applied to enhance data quality and reduce false alarm rates. Of special interest is the data retrieval, processing and visualization in GI-Systems. Therefore a suitable serviced based Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) will be developed with respect to existing and upcoming Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards.The application of WSN provides a cheap and easy to set up solution for special monitoring and data gathering in large areas. Measurement data from different low-cost transducers for deformation observation (acceleration, displacement, tilting) is collected by distributed sensor nodes (motes), which interact separately and connect each other in a self-organizing manner. Data are collected and aggregated at the beacon (transmission station) and further operations like data pre-processing and compression can be performed. The WSN concept provides next to energy efficiency, miniaturization, real-time monitoring and remote operation, but also new monitoring strategies like sensor and network fusion. Since not only single sensors can be integrated at single motes either cross-validation or redundant sensor setups are possible to enhance data quality. The planned monitoring and information system will include a mobile infrastructure (information technologies and communication components) as well as methods and models to estimate surface deformation parameters (positioning systems). The measurements result in heterogeneous observation sets that have to be integrated in a common adjustment and filtering approach. Reliable real-time information will be obtained using a range of sensor input and algorithms, from which early warnings


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taufiq Muammar


    Full Text Available Early warning system is one of the technology to detect land fires by utilizing a network of wireless sensors. Constant data transmission by the sensor nodes consumes a large amount of energy on the nodes’ sides that could affect the battery’s longevity. This research is done to discover the amount of power consumption and battery longevity during fire emergencies, and during non-emergency situation on peatlands. Power saving on the fire detecting system uses an LM35 temperature sensor, ATmega8 micro-controller and HC-12 transmission module. The overall result of powered by a 9 volt battery during fire emergencies, and during non-emergency, the power consumption reaches up to 1 Wh, with various longevity levels of the battery. The implementation of sleep/wake up mode scheduling during fire emergencies and non-emergencies could save battery for 2 hours compared to those without the power saving mode implementation. Power saving during fire emergency could be minimalized by activating the sleep mode activation power-down on the micro controller and it can also set the data transmission schedule to minimalize data usage during fire emergency, so that the usage of sleep/wake up mode interval scheduling during transmission could minimalize energy consumption and elongate the power supply active period.

  7. Brief communication: Using averaged soil moisture estimates to improve the performances of a regional-scale landslide early warning system (United States)

    Segoni, Samuele; Rosi, Ascanio; Lagomarsino, Daniela; Fanti, Riccardo; Casagli, Nicola


    We communicate the results of a preliminary investigation aimed at improving a state-of-the-art RSLEWS (regional-scale landslide early warning system) based on rainfall thresholds by integrating mean soil moisture values averaged over the territorial units of the system. We tested two approaches. The simplest can be easily applied to improve other RSLEWS: it is based on a soil moisture threshold value under which rainfall thresholds are not used because landslides are not expected to occur. Another approach deeply modifies the original RSLEWS: thresholds based on antecedent rainfall accumulated over long periods are substituted with soil moisture thresholds. A back analysis demonstrated that both approaches consistently reduced false alarms, while the second approach reduced missed alarms as well.

  8. Polish Early Warning Systems In Predicting Risk Of Bankruptcy Ff Wawel S.A In The Years 2013-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Tokarski


    Wawel S.A covering the period from 2013 to 2015. The paper has been written based on the literature in the area of "economics of bankruptcies", accounting, financial analysis and auditing, provisions of law and financial statements of the company Wawel S.A. The selection of the company Wawel S.A for analysis is to confirm the effectiveness of warning models-systems in predicting lack of bankruptcy risk for an economic entity, as the good economic and financial situation of the company analysed should be reflected in the fact that all the models show that Wawel S.A is a healthy company, i.e. no business continuity risk is identified.

  9. Driving with a partially autonomous forward collision warning system: how do drivers react? (United States)

    Muhrer, Elke; Reinprecht, Klaus; Vollrath, Mark


    The effects of a forward collision warning (FCW) and braking system (FCW+) were examined in a driving simulator study analyzing driving and gaze behavior and the engagement in a secondary task. In-depth accident analyses indicate that a lack of appropriate expectations for possible critical situations and visual distraction may be the major causes of rear-end crashes. Studies with FCW systems have shown that a warning alone was not enough for a driver to be able to avoid the accident. Thus,an additional braking intervention by such systems could be necessary. In a driving simulator experiment, 30 drivers took part in a car-following scenario in an urban area. It was assumed that different lead car behaviors and environmental aspects would lead to different drivers' expectations of the future traffic situation. Driving with and without FCW+ was introduced as a between-subjects factor. Driving with FCW+ resulted in significantly fewer accidents in critical situations. This result was achieved by the system's earlier reaction time as compared with that of drivers. The analysis of the gaze behavior showed that driving with the system did not lead to a stronger involvement in secondary tasks. The study supports the hypotheses about the importance of missing expectations for the occurrence of accidents. These accidents can be prevented by an FCW+ that brakes autonomously. The results indicate that an autonomous braking intervention should be implemented in FCW systems to increase the effectiveness of these assistance systems.

  10. United States Earthquake Early Warning System: How Theory and Analysis Can Save America Before the Big One Happens (United States)


    Documentation for 201447 Spending more on ShakeAlert now and including sustainable operating costs can be justified. In a 2016 publication in...Seismological Research Letters, entitled “ Benefits and Costs of Earthquake Early Warning,” Strauss and Allen determine that “according to FEMA’s cost ...statistical life in the United States is USD 6.6 million.”48 As such, the benefits outweigh the costs as the earthquake early warning system alone would

  11. Toward a better understanding of nearshore meteotsunami evolution, and effective meteotsunami early-warning systems (United States)

    Sheremet, A.; Li, C.; Shrira, V. I.


    We present high-resolution observations collected in 2008 on the Atcahfalaya shelf that capture the shoaling evolution of a meteotsunami (MT), including the disintegration into the train of solitons (solibore). One of the intriguing elements of this process is a spectacular 1.5-m solitary-wave (soliton), that precedes the arrival of the MT solibore by approximately 5 min, reaching the observation site propagating through a background of nearly-calm waters (20-cm height wind waves). Solitons, products of the MT disintegration process, are observed at all experiment sites, covering approx. 200 km shoreline. We interpret observations employing numerical simulations of a simplified hydrodynamic model based on the variable coefficient KdV equation. The analysis shows that observed wide-spread soliton presence and the soliton/solibore formation are the result of a complicated evolution process involving refraction, collision, and nonlinear interaction of multiple meteotsunami waves.Our results highlight the substantial lack of detail of the current picture of the nonlinear transformation of a MT from generation to its shoreline manifestation. A realistic reconstruction of MT evolution is at present almost impossible based on the current poor spatial and temporal resolution MT observations, overwhelmingly confined to the shoreline. Since the MTs tend to disintegrate into very short (down to 10s) pulses, even modern tidal gauges (1 min resolution) fail to capture essential features of its evolution. We also briefly discuss an ongoing field experiment that carries further the effort to collect high-resolution MT measurements, and that will investigate and test methodologies for early warning systems.

  12. A Plan to Develop a Red Tide Warning System for Seawater Desalination Process Management (United States)

    Kim, Tae Woo; Yun, Hong Sik


    The holt of the seawater desalination process for fifty five days due to the eight-month long red tide in 2008 in the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, had lost about 10 billion KRW. The POSCO Seawater Desalination facility, located in Gwangyang Bay Area in the Southern Sea, has produced 30,000 tons of fresh water per day since 2014. Since there has been an incident of red time in the area for three months in August, 2012, it is necessary to establish a warning system for red tide that threatens the stable operation of the seawater desalination facility. A red tide warning system can offer the seawater desalination facility manager customized services on red tide information and potential red tide inflow to the water intake. This study aimed to develop a red tide warning system in Gwangyang Bay Area by combining RS, modeling and monitoring technologies, which provides red tide forecasting information with which to effectively control the seawater desalination process. Using the proposed system, the seawater desalination facility manager can take phased measures to cope with the inflow of red tide. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research was supported by a grant(16IFIP-C088924-03) from Industrial Facilities & Infrastructure Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(MOLIT) of the Korea government and the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA). This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2014R1A1A2054975).

  13. Remote sensing-based time series models for malaria early warning in the highlands of Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Midekisa Alemayehu


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is one of the leading public health problems in most of sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Ethiopia. Almost all demographic groups are at risk of malaria because of seasonal and unstable transmission of the disease. Therefore, there is a need to develop malaria early-warning systems to enhance public health decision making for control and prevention of malaria epidemics. Data from orbiting earth-observing sensors can monitor environmental risk factors that trigger malaria epidemics. Remotely sensed environmental indicators were used to examine the influences of climatic and environmental variability on temporal patterns of malaria cases in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Methods In this study seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA models were used to quantify the relationship between malaria cases and remotely sensed environmental variables, including rainfall, land-surface temperature (LST, vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI, and actual evapotranspiration (ETa with lags ranging from one to three months. Predictions from the best model with environmental variables were compared to the actual observations from the last 12 months of the time series. Results Malaria cases exhibited positive associations with LST at a lag of one month and positive associations with indicators of moisture (rainfall, EVI and ETa at lags from one to three months. SARIMA models that included these environmental covariates had better fits and more accurate predictions, as evidenced by lower AIC and RMSE values, than models without environmental covariates. Conclusions Malaria risk indicators such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, LST, EVI, and ETa exhibited significant lagged associations with malaria cases in the Amhara region and improved model fit and prediction accuracy. These variables can be monitored frequently and extensively across large geographic areas using data from earth-observing sensors to support public

  14. New technology for using meteorological information in forest insect pest forecast and warning systems. (United States)

    Qin, Jiang-Lin; Yang, Xiu-Hao; Yang, Zhong-Wu; Luo, Ji-Tong; Lei, Xiu-Feng


    Near surface air temperature and rainfall are major weather factors affecting forest insect dynamics. The recent developments in remote sensing retrieval and geographic information system spatial analysis techniques enable the utilization of weather factors to significantly enhance forest pest forecasting and warning systems. The current study focused on building forest pest digital data structures as a platform of correlation analysis between weather conditions and forest pest dynamics for better pest forecasting and warning systems using the new technologies. The study dataset contained 3 353 425 small polygons with 174 defined attributes covering 95 counties of Guangxi province of China currently registering 292 forest pest species. Field data acquisition and information transfer systems were established with four software licences that provided 15-fold improvement compared to the systems currently used in China. Nine technical specifications were established including codes of forest districts, pest species and host tree species, and standard practices of forest pest monitoring and information management. Attributes can easily be searched using ArcGIS9.3 and/or the free QGIS2.16 software. Small polygons with pest relevant attributes are a new tool of precision farming and detailed forest insect pest management that are technologically advanced. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  15. System of prediction and warning of floods in the water basin of Struma/ Strymonas River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mimides, Theologos; Rizos, Spyros; Soulis, Kostas; Dimitrov, Dobri


    Struma is collecting waters from four countries: Bulgaria, Serbia, FYROM and Greece. Most of its basin area is located in Bulgaria and Greece, while the upper part of its basin is in Bulgaria. There are important hydro technical structures just below the Bulgarian-Greek border, and the floods generated in the Bulgarian part of the basin could significantly affect the security of those structures and their operational rules. That is why several years ago a project related to flood warning at Struma/ Strymonas river basin was formulated and its first phase was completed in 2000. The main objective of the project was to demonstrate the principal possibility for issuing reliable warnings for hazardous flood events with sufficient lead-time to organize flood mitigation measures. The project implementation team included various scientists from the Agricultural University of Athens-Greece (leader), from the Center of Remote Sensing, Bristol University-UK, and from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Sofia - Bulgaria. The work program of the first project phase included a range of activities implemented by the Bulgarian and Greek team members, coordinated by the Agricultural University of Athens. Among the activities of the Project are included: a) a preliminary model for peak flood hydrographs and specifications of an early warning system, b) a real time flood forecasting by routing flood hydrographs through the system of the river and Kerkini lake, c) thematic maps of vegetation and land cover derived by satellite remote sensing, d) satellite snow monitoring in the basin, e) an adaptation of the Alladin Weather Forecast Model at the hydrological basin and scaling of the Crocus Snow Model at a preliminary stage, and f) development of a geo environmental recording system.(Author)

  16. Implementation of Malaria Dynamic Models in Municipality Level Early Warning Systems in Colombia. Part I: Description of Study Sites (United States)

    Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M.; Quiñónes, Martha L.; Jiménez, Mónica M.; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.


    As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. PMID:24891460

  17. End points for validating early warning scores in the context of rapid response systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, N. E.; Oestergaard, D.; Lippert, A.


    with optimal treatment. This could pose a limitation to studies using these end points. We studied current expert opinion on end points for validating tools for the identification of patients in hospital wards at risk of imminent critical illness. METHODS: The Delphi consensus methodology was used. We......INTRODUCTION: When investigating early warning scores and similar physiology-based risk stratification tools, death, cardiac arrest and intensive care unit admission are traditionally used as end points. A large proportion of the patients identified by these end points cannot be saved, even...

  18. [Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China]. (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan


    To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

  19. Summary of the stakeholders workshop to develop a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) (United States)

    Guffanti, Marianne; Scott, William E.; Driedger, Carolyn L.; Ewert, John W.


    The importance of investing in monitoring, mitigation, and preparedness before natural hazards occur has been amply demonstrated by recent disasters such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in December 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in August 2005. Playing catch-up with hazardous natural phenomena such as these limits our ability to work with public officials and the public to lessen adverse impacts. With respect to volcanic activity, the starting point of effective pre-event mitigation is monitoring capability sufficient to detect and diagnose precursory unrest so that communities at risk have reliable information and sufficient time to respond to hazards with which they may be confronted. Recognizing that many potentially dangerous U.S. volcanoes have inadequate or no ground-based monitoring, the U.S Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) and partners recently evaluated U.S. volcano-monitoring capabilities and published 'An Assessment of Volcanic Threat and Monitoring Capabilities in the United States: Framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS).' Results of the NVEWS volcanic threat and monitoring assessment are being used to guide long-term improvements to the national volcano-monitoring infrastructure operated by the USGS and affiliated groups. The NVEWS report identified the need to convene a workshop of a broad group of stakeholders--such as representatives of emergency- and land-management agencies at the Federal, State, and local levels and the aviation sector--to solicit input about implementation of NVEWS and their specific information requirements. Accordingly, an NVEWS Stakeholders Workshop was held in Portland, Oregon, on 22-23 February 2006. A summary of the workshop is presented in this document.

  20. Development of earthquake early warning system using real time signal of broadband seismogram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunawan, Hendar; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan; Harjadi, Prih


    Earthquake pose serious threat of live and properties for urban area near subduction zone offshore and active fault on land. Jakarta and Bandung is an example of big city that no system of Earthquake early warning (EEW) event very high urbanization, and has many important infra structure in the area. The capital city is potentially high risk ground shaking. EEW can be usefull tool for reducing earthquake hazard, if spatial relation between cities and earthquake source is favorable for such warning and their citizens are properly trained to response early warning message. An EEW and rapid response system can provide the critical information needed to minimized lost of live and property and direct rescue. Earthquake ground shaking with magnitude M>6.0 from zone of Megathrust, southern of West Java should potentially damage in the area of west java especially Bandung and Jakarta City. This research development of EEW parameter such as amplitude displacement (Pd), rapid magnitude determination (M) and Peak ground Velocity (PGV). We explore the practical approach to EEW with the use of Broadband seismogram signal. Time effective EEW which epicenter from megathrust zone has potential to provide EEW in the area of west java such as Jakarta first ground shaking more or less 60 second later and strong shaking 118 second after EEW Alarm on CISI Station. EEW notification at potentially damage in the area of west java can be predicted from the characteristic of Pd > 0.5 cm, M> 6 and PGV > 10 cm/sec. GIS as a tool for presentation of hazard mapping in the affected area.

  1. Fast Moment Magnitude Determination from P-wave Trains for Bucharest Rapid Early Warning System (BREWS) (United States)

    Lizurek, Grzegorz; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wiszniowski, Jan


    Bucharest, with a population of approximately 2 million people, has suffered damage from earthquakes in the Vrancea seismic zone, which is located about 170 km from Bucharest, at a depth of 80-200 km. Consequently, an earthquake early warning system (Bucharest Rapid earthquake Early Warning System or BREWS) was constructed to provide some warning about impending shaking from large earthquakes in the Vrancea zone. In order to provide quick estimates of magnitude, seismic moment was first determined from P-waves and then a moment magnitude was determined from the moment. However, this magnitude may not be consistent with previous estimates of magnitude from the Romanian Seismic Network. This paper introduces the algorithm using P-wave spectral levels and compares them with catalog estimates. The testing procedure used waveforms from about 90 events with catalog magnitudes from 3.5 to 5.4. Corrections to the P-wave determined magnitudes according to dominant intermediate depth events mechanism were tested for November 22, 2014, M5.6 and October 17, M6 events. The corrections worked well, but unveiled overestimation of the average magnitude result of about 0.2 magnitude unit in the case of shallow depth event ( H < 60 km). The P-wave spectral approach allows for the relatively fast estimates of magnitude for use in BREWS. The average correction taking into account the most common focal mechanism for radiation pattern coefficient may lead to overestimation of the magnitude for shallow events of about 0.2 magnitude unit. However, in case of events of intermediate depth of M6 the resulting M w is underestimated at about 0.1-0.2. We conclude that our P-wave spectral approach is sufficiently robust for the needs of BREWS for both shallow and intermediate depth events.

  2. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines (United States)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.


    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter

  3. Filtering big data from social media--Building an early warning system for adverse drug reactions. (United States)

    Yang, Ming; Kiang, Melody; Shang, Wei


    Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are believed to be a leading cause of death in the world. Pharmacovigilance systems are aimed at early detection of ADRs. With the popularity of social media, Web forums and discussion boards become important sources of data for consumers to share their drug use experience, as a result may provide useful information on drugs and their adverse reactions. In this study, we propose an automated ADR related posts filtering mechanism using text classification methods. In real-life settings, ADR related messages are highly distributed in social media, while non-ADR related messages are unspecific and topically diverse. It is expensive to manually label a large amount of ADR related messages (positive examples) and non-ADR related messages (negative examples) to train classification systems. To mitigate this challenge, we examine the use of a partially supervised learning classification method to automate the process. We propose a novel pharmacovigilance system leveraging a Latent Dirichlet Allocation modeling module and a partially supervised classification approach. We select drugs with more than 500 threads of discussion, and collect all the original posts and comments of these drugs using an automatic Web spidering program as the text corpus. Various classifiers were trained by varying the number of positive examples and the number of topics. The trained classifiers were applied to 3000 posts published over 60 days. Top-ranked posts from each classifier were pooled and the resulting set of 300 posts was reviewed by a domain expert to evaluate the classifiers. Compare to the alternative approaches using supervised learning methods and three general purpose partially supervised learning methods, our approach performs significantly better in terms of precision, recall, and the F measure (the harmonic mean of precision and recall), based on a computational experiment using online discussion threads from Medhelp. Our design provides

  4. Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imam Wahyudi


    Full Text Available Asia's  inancial  crisis  in  July  1997  affects  currency,  capital  market,  and  real  market throughout  Asian  countries.  Countries  in  southeast  region  (ASEAN,  including  Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, are some of the countries where the crisis hit  the  most.  In  these  countries,  where  inancial  sectors  are  far  more  developed  than  real sectors  and  the  money  market  sectors,  most  of  the  economic  activities  are  conducted  in capital  market.  Movement  in  the  capital  market  could  be  a  proxy  to  describe  the  overall economic  situation  and  therefore  the  prediction  of  it  could  be  an  early  warning  system  of economic crises. This paper tries to investigate movement in ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,  Singapore,  and  Thailand  capital  market  to  build  an  early  warning  system from inancial sectors perspective. This paper will be very beneicial for the government to anticipate the forthcoming crisis. The insight of this paper is from Hamilton (1990 model of regime switching process in which he divide the movement of currency into two regimes, describe the switching transition based on Markov process and creates different model for each regimes. Differ from Hamilton, our research focuses on index return instead of currency to  model  the  regime  switching.  This  research  aimed  to  ind  the  probability  of  crisis  in  the future by combining the probability of switching and the probability distribution function of each  regime.  Probability  of  switching  is  estimated  by  categorizing  the  movement  in  index return  into  two  regimes  (negative  return  in  regime  1  and  positive  return  in  regime  2  then measuring  the  proportion  of  switching  to  regime  1  in  t  given  regime

  5. [Results of applying a paediatric early warning score system as a healthcare quality improvement plan]. (United States)

    Rivero-Martín, M J; Prieto-Martínez, S; García-Solano, M; Montilla-Pérez, M; Tena-Martín, E; Ballesteros-García, M M


    The aims of this study were to introduce a paediatric early warning score (PEWS) into our daily clinical practice, as well as to evaluate its ability to detect clinical deterioration in children admitted, and to train nursing staff to communicate the information and response effectively. An analysis was performed on the implementation of PEWS in the electronic health records of children (0-15 years) in our paediatric ward from February 2014 to September 2014. The maximum score was 6. Nursing staff reviewed scores >2, and if >3 medical and nursing staff reviewed it. Monitoring indicators: % of admissions with scoring; % of complete data capture; % of scores >3; % of scores >3 reviewed by medical staff, % of changes in treatment due to the warning system, and number of patients who needed Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) admission, or died without an increased warning score. The data were collected from all patients (931) admitted. The scale was measured 7,917 times, with 78.8% of them with complete data capture. Very few (1.9%) showed scores >3, and 14% of them with changes in clinical management (intensifying treatment or new diagnostic tests). One patient (scored 2) required PICU admission. There were no deaths. Parents or nursing staff concern was registered in 80% of cases. PEWS are useful to provide a standardised assessment of clinical status in the inpatient setting, using a unique scale and implementing data capture. Because of the lack of severe complications requiring PICU admission and deaths, we will have to use other data to evaluate these scales. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  6. Developing the early warning system for identification of students at risk of dropping out using a collaborative action research process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovanović Olja 0000-0001-8860-6717


    Full Text Available The paper presents findings of collaborative action research aimed at exploring and describing the process of the development of the early warning system for identification of students at risk of dropping (EWS. The study has been conducted in collaboration between practitioners from five vocational agriculture and food science schools and research team with expertise in the field of educational psychology. Study employed one cycle of collaborative action research including planning, acting, observing, reflecting and revising phase. During the planning and action phase, Instrument for identification of students at risk of dropping out has been developed and implemented on the sample of 485 first grade students. The collected data has been used to highlight the students who are beginning to exhibit warning signs that could become obstacles to graduation, as well as to craft meaningful prevention and intervention measures. Observations regarding the implementation of proposed methodology and reflections on collected data and ongoing processes have been systematically recorded through regular monthly meetings between researchers and practitioners. Analysis of 73 documents, collected during observation and reflection phase, resulted in 18 categories, grouped into two broad themes: pitfalls and strengths of EWS. Based on the findings, the methodology for identification of students at risk was revised to fit the needs and strengths of the specific school. The study offers valuable lessons regarding development of EWS through researchers-practitioners collaboration.

  7. Heatwave Early Warning Systems and Adaptation Advice to Reduce Human Health Consequences of Heatwaves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertil Forsberg


    Full Text Available Introduction: With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS. HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations. Objective: To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. Methods: We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences. Findings and Conclusions: Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans.

  8. A Simple Early Warning System for Evaluating the Credit Portfolio's Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Dardac


    Full Text Available The last decade has witnessed the development of a vast literature devoted to the study of several phenomena like banking crises or episodes of vulnerability and distress, characterized by inadequate capitalization, impairment of the asset quality and of the credit institutions' rating. The purpose of this study is to design an early warning system in order to highlight at an earlier stage the likelihood of deterioration of the Romanian banking system credit portfolio's quality. We have applied an econometric model which constitutes a reference for this type of analysis, having as purpose the identification of a significant correlation between increasing weight of bad loans in total assets, on the one hand, and a number of macroeconomic variables and indicators of the banking system, on the other hand.

  9. Linear stability theory as an early warning sign for transitions in high dimensional complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piovani, Duccio; Grujić, Jelena; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft


    We analyse in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems by application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology and high dimensional replicator systems with a stochastic element. A high dimensional stability matrix is derived in the mean field approximation to the stochastic dynamics. This allows us to determine the stability spectrum about the observed quasi-stable configurations. From overlap of the instantaneous configuration vector of the full stochastic system with the eigenvectors of the unstable directions of the deterministic mean field approximation, we are able to construct a good early-warning indicator of the transitions occurring intermittently. (paper)

  10. Integrated representation of hydropower facilities in an operational flood warning system for a mountainous watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude Aurélien


    Full Text Available An integrated flood forecasting system adapted to mountain basins is under construction at the flood forecasting service of the French Northern Alps (SPCAN, whose jurisdiction area covers the whole Isère River basin (12000km2. Most parts of this area are harnessed for hydropower production, thus modifying flows at all the main sections of the stream network. A semi-distributed conceptual modeling approach was chosen for predicting warning levels at daily time step. Before giving results on the strategic warning point of Montmèlian, simulations on two representative sub-basins of about 1000 km2 are detailed. The first sub-basin includes the large Sautet dam, on the Drac River. The second, on the Isère River, includes the large dam of Tignes and is characterized by multiple diversions. The influence of hydroelectric facilities was analyzed for reconstituting natural flows. Then, a two-steps modeling strategy was deployed: firstly, natural reconstituted flows were simulated; next, the effect of hydroelectric works was introduced, considering the operating status of the main reservoirs and of the water intakes, the latter being aggregated together as a unique equivalent device. While keeping a reasonable level of model complexity, the developed tool provides accurate simulations of observed flood events and is planned to be further used in real-time.

  11. Assessing the accuracy of forecasting: applying standard diagnostic assessment tools to a health technology early warning system. (United States)

    Simpson, Sue; Hyde, Chris; Cook, Alison; Packer, Claire; Stevens, Andrew


    Early warning systems are an integral part of many health technology assessment programs. Despite this finding, to date, there have been no quantitative evaluations of the accuracy of predictions made by these systems. We report a study evaluating the accuracy of predictions made by the main United Kingdom early warning system. As prediction of impact is analogous to diagnosis, a method normally applied to determine the accuracy of diagnostic tests was used. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the National Horizon Scanning Centre's prediction methods were estimated with reference to an (imperfect) gold standard, that is, expert opinion of impact 3 to 5 years after prediction. The sensitivity of predictions was 71 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.92), and the specificity was 73 percent (95 percent CI, 0.64-0.8). The negative predictive value was 98 percent (95 percent CI, 0.92-0.99), and the positive predictive value was 14 percent (95 percent CI, 0.06-0.3). Forecasting is difficult, but the results suggest that this early warning system's predictions have an acceptable level of accuracy. However, there are caveats. The first is that early warning systems may themselves reduce the impact of a technology, as helping to control adoption and diffusion is their main purpose. The second is that the use of an imperfect gold standard may bias the results. As early warning systems are viewed as an increasingly important component of health technology assessment and decision making, their outcomes must be evaluated. The method used here should be investigated further and the accuracy of other early warning systems explored.

  12. Development of Safe Taiwan Information System (SATIS for Typhoon Early Warning in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Ray Su


    Full Text Available Due to the particular geographical location and geological condition, Taiwan is constantly attacked by typhoons, flood, landslides, debris flows, and earthquakes. Those natural hazards had caused huge loss of lives and properties. To reduce the damages and losses caused by the natural hazards, an integrated and complete decision support system for decision makers is necessary. In this study, Safe Taiwan information system (SATIS, which includes two subsystems, response operation subsystem for staff members and decision support subsystem for commanders, is developed for preparedness and response of typhoon hazards. It is based on the Web- GIS framework that the disaster information can be distributed via internet technology. When typhoon is approaching, response operation subsystem is used by National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR staffs to integrate real-time monitoring information, hazard models and graphical user interfaces to analyze and manage the disaster information such as the current position and possible path of typhoon, the spatial distribution of rainfalls, and potential areas of flooding, landslides and debris flows. The input data of this subsystem includes the basic maps, the real-time information of typhoon and rainfall issued by the Central Weather Bureau, the real-time water information from the Water Resources Agency, and the hazard maps indicating areas of potential landslide, debris flow and flooding made by NCDR herself to estimate endangered areas under the current typhoon. There are four main modules integrated into the subsystem including the rainfall monitoring and forecasting, the estimation of potential inundation areas, the estimation of potential landslide and debris flows, and the management of disaster information. The results of hazard risk analysis which include potential rainfall distribution, inundation and landslide risk areas, early warning messages, and total suggestion over the

  13. System development over the monitoring for the purpose of early warning of population from the threat of landslides. (Invited) (United States)

    Zakhidova, D. V.; Kadyrhodjaev, A.; Scientific Team Of Hydroengeo Institute On Natural Hazards


    Well-timed warning of the population about possible landslide threat is one of the main positions in order to provide safe and stable country development. The system of monitoring over dangerous geological processes includes such components, as observation, forecast, control and management. Aspects of forecasting take special place. Having wide row of observations there can be possible to reveal some regularity of the phenomena, basing on which, it is possible to proceed forecasting. We looked through many approaches of forecasting that are used in different countries. The analysis of the available work has allowed to draw up a conclusion that while referring to the question of landslide forecasting, it is necessary to approach in system form, taking into account interacting components of the nature. The study of landslide processes has shown that these processes lies within the framework of engineering-geological directions of the science and also interacts with tectonics, geomorphology, hydrogeology, hydrology, climate change, technogenesis and etc. Thereby, the necessity of system approach, achievements of modern science and technology the most expedient approach to make a decision at landslide forecasting is probabilistic-statistical method with complex use of geological and satellite data, specific images processed through geoinformation systems. In this connection, probabilistic-statistical approach, reflecting natural characteristics of interacting natural system, allows to take into account multi-factored processes of landslide activations. Among the many factors, influencing on landslide activation, there exist ones that are not amenable to numerical feature. The parameters of these factors have descriptive, qualitative, rather than quantitative nature. Leaving these factors with lack of attention is absolutely not reasonable. Proposed approach has one more advantage, which allows taking into account not only numerical, but also non-numeric parameters

  14. The International Platform on Earthquake Early Warning Systems (IP-EEWS) (United States)

    Torres, Jair; Fanchiotti, Margherita


    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recognizes the need to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030" as one of its global targets (target "g"). While considerable progress has been made in recent decades, early warning systems (EWSs) continue to be less developed for geo-hazards and significant challenges remain in advancing the development of EWSs for specific hazards, particularly for fastest onset hazards such as earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system (EEWS) helps in disseminating timely information about potentially catastrophic earthquake hazards to the public, emergency managers and the private sector to provide enough time to implement automatized emergency measures. At the same time, these systems help to reduce considerably the CO2 emissions produced by the catastrophic impacts and subsequent effects of earthquakes, such as those generated by fires, collapses, and pollution (among others), as well as those produced in the recovery and reconstruction processes. In recent years, EEWSs have been developed independently in few countries: EEWSs have shown operational in Japan and Mexico, while other regions in California (USA), Turkey, Italy, Canada, South Korea and China (including Taiwan) are in the development stages or under restricted applications. Many other countries in the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa, Southeast Africa, as well as Central America, South America and the Caribbean, are located in some of the most seismically active regions in the world, or present moderate seismicity but high vulnerability, and would strongly benefit from the development of EEWSs. Given that, in many instances, the development of an EEWS still requires further testing, increased density coverage in seismic observation stations, regional coordination, and further scientific

  15. Seizure detection, seizure prediction, and closed-loop warning systems in epilepsy. (United States)

    Ramgopal, Sriram; Thome-Souza, Sigride; Jackson, Michele; Kadish, Navah Ester; Sánchez Fernández, Iván; Klehm, Jacquelyn; Bosl, William; Reinsberger, Claus; Schachter, Steven; Loddenkemper, Tobias


    Nearly one-third of patients with epilepsy continue to have seizures despite optimal medication management. Systems employed to detect seizures may have the potential to improve outcomes in these patients by allowing more tailored therapies and might, additionally, have a role in accident and SUDEP prevention. Automated seizure detection and prediction require algorithms which employ feature computation and subsequent classification. Over the last few decades, methods have been developed to detect seizures utilizing scalp and intracranial EEG, electrocardiography, accelerometry and motion sensors, electrodermal activity, and audio/video captures. To date, it is unclear which combination of detection technologies yields the best results, and approaches may ultimately need to be individualized. This review presents an overview of seizure detection and related prediction methods and discusses their potential uses in closed-loop warning systems in epilepsy. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Setting up an early warning system for epidemic-prone diseases in Darfur: a participative approach. (United States)

    Pinto, Augusto; Saeed, Mubarak; El Sakka, Hammam; Rashford, Adrienne; Colombo, Alessandro; Valenciano, Marta; Sabatinelli, Guido


    In April-May 2004, the World Health Organization (WHO) implemented, with local authorities, United Nations (UN) agencies and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), an early warning system (EWS) in Darfur, West Sudan, for internally displaced persons (IDPs). The number of consultations and deaths per week for 12 health events is recorded for two age groups (less than five years and five years and above). Thresholds are used to detect potential outbreaks. Ten weeks after the introduction of the system, NGOs were covering 54 camps, and 924,281 people (IDPs and the host population). Of these 54 camps, 41 (76%) were reporting regularly under the EWS. Between 22 May and 30 July, 179,795 consultations were reported: 18.7% for acute respiratory infections; 15% for malaria; 8.4% for bloody diarrhoea; and 1% for severe acute malnutrition. The EWS is useful for detecting outbreaks and monitoring the number of consultations required to trigger actions, but not for estimating mortality.

  17. Human-computer interaction for alert warning and attention allocation systems of the multimodal watchstation (United States)

    Obermayer, Richard W.; Nugent, William A.


    The SPAWAR Systems Center San Diego is currently developing an advanced Multi-Modal Watchstation (MMWS); design concepts and software from this effort are intended for transition to future United States Navy surface combatants. The MMWS features multiple flat panel displays and several modes of user interaction, including voice input and output, natural language recognition, 3D audio, stylus and gestural inputs. In 1999, an extensive literature review was conducted on basic and applied research concerned with alerting and warning systems. After summarizing that literature, a human computer interaction (HCI) designer's guide was prepared to support the design of an attention allocation subsystem (AAS) for the MMWS. The resultant HCI guidelines are being applied in the design of a fully interactive AAS prototype. An overview of key findings from the literature review, a proposed design methodology with illustrative examples, and an assessment of progress made in implementing the HCI designers guide are presented.

  18. The Early Warning System and the EU’s subsidiarity principle: the Basque Parliament’s application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Luis de Castro Ruano


    Full Text Available This article analyses and evaluates the Basque Parliament’s participation in the EU’s Early Warning System (EWS for checking the application of the subsidiarity principle in the EU’s legislative process. The Early Warning System is an instrument created by the Lisbon Treaty (signed in 2007 and in force since 2009 to safeguard the subsidiarity principle. One of its most interesting innovations is that it facilitates the participation of regional parliaments in the control of the subsidiarity principle. Two years after its introduction, the Basque Parliament is one of the most active regional actors in this regard.

  19. A search for applications of Fiber Optics in early warning systems for natural hazards. (United States)

    Wenker, Koen; Bogaard, Thom


    In order to reduce the societal risk associated with natural hazards novel technologies could help to advance in early warning systems. In our study we evaluate the use of multi-sensor technologies as possible early-warning systems for landslides and man-made structures, and the integration of the information in a simple Decision Support System (DSS). In this project, particular attention will be paid to some new possibilities available in the field of distributed monitoring systems of relevant parameters for landslide and man-made structures monitoring (such as large dams and bridges), and among them the distributed monitoring of temperature, strain and acoustic signals by FO cables. Fiber Optic measurements are becoming more and more popular. Fiber optic cables have been developed in the telecommunication business to send large amounts of information over large distances with the speed of light. Because of the commercial application, production costs are relatively low. Using fiber optics for measurements has several advantages. This novel technology is, for instance, immune to electromagnetic interference, appears stable, very accurate, and has the potential to measure several independent physical properties in a distributed manner. The high resolution spatial and temporal distributed information on e.g. temperature or strain (or both) make fiber optics an interesting measurement technique. Several applications have been developed in both engineering as science and the possibilities seem numerous. We will present a thorough literature review that was done to assess the applicability and limitations of FO cable technology. This review was focused but not limited to application in landslide research. Several examples of current practices will be shown, also from outside the natural hazard practice and possible application will be discussed.

  20. LDAR, A Three-Dimensional Lightning Warning System: Its Development and Use by the Government, and Transition to Public Availability (United States)

    Starr, Stan; Sharp, David; Merceret, Francis; Madura, John; Murphy, Martin


    NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high precision lightning location system to provide lightning related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning-sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations [45th Weather Squadron, U. S. Air Force (USAF)] where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 MHz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. NASA and Global Atmospherics, Inc. are developing a new system that will replace the unique LDAR components with commercially available and maintainable components having improved capabilities. These components will be phased in to ensure full continuity and access to this important warning technology. These LDAR systems are expected to eventually be available for installation and use by the public at specialized facilities, such as airports, and for general weather warnings via the National Weather Service (NWS) or television broadcast. The NWS in Melbourne has had access to real-time LDAR data since 1993 on an experimental basis. This use of LDAR has shown promise for the improvement of aviation forecasts and severe weather warnings. More so, it has opened the door to investigate the feasibility of issuing lightning-related public advisories. The success of its early use suggests that this technology may improve safety and potentially save lives, therefore constituting a significant benefit to the public. This paper describes the LDR system, the plans and progress of these upgrades, and the potential benefits of its use.

  1. Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Greco


    Full Text Available To manage natural risks, an increasing effort is being put in the development of early warning systems (EWS, namely, approaches facing catastrophic phenomena by timely forecasting and alarm spreading throughout exposed population. Research efforts aimed at the development and implementation of effective EWS should especially concern the definition and calibration of the interpretative model. This paper analyses the main features characterizing predictive models working in EWS by discussing their aims and their features in terms of model accuracy, evolutionary stage of the phenomenon at which the prediction is carried out and model architecture. Original classification criteria based on these features are developed throughout the paper and shown in their practical implementation through examples of flow-like landslides and earth flows, both of which are characterized by rapid evolution and quite representative of many applications of EWS.

  2. Development of a site specific dynamical tropical cyclone and other extreme weather early warning system for Kalpakkam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramakrishna, S.S.V.S.; Bhaskar Rao, D.V.; Venkata Srinivas, C.; Venkatesan, R.; Srivastav, Rupa


    The project was to study the tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal for the south east coast region in the neighbourhood of Kalpakkam, with the main objectives of developing a methodology for providing early warning of developing storms for Kalpakkam site region based on numerical methods. The main objectives of the project are to develop a numerical modeling system for the forecasting of cyclonic storms that form in the Bay of Bengal and cross the east coast of Kalpakkam. the model performance with respect to the intensity (extreme winds), rainfall and the movement of the storm will be assessed for a number of past cyclonic storms in the region and simulations will focus on the identification of proper model configuration in terms of horizontal/vertical resolutions and physics parameterizations for deriving best predictions and to implement the same for operations forecasting for the Kalpakkam site in Tamil Nadu

  3. Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides (United States)

    Greco, Roberto; Pagano, Luca


    To manage natural risks, an increasing effort is being put in the development of early warning systems (EWS), namely, approaches facing catastrophic phenomena by timely forecasting and alarm spreading throughout exposed population. Research efforts aimed at the development and implementation of effective EWS should especially concern the definition and calibration of the interpretative model. This paper analyses the main features characterizing predictive models working in EWS by discussing their aims and their features in terms of model accuracy, evolutionary stage of the phenomenon at which the prediction is carried out and model architecture. Original classification criteria based on these features are developed throughout the paper and shown in their practical implementation through examples of flow-like landslides and earth flows, both of which are characterized by rapid evolution and quite representative of many applications of EWS.

  4. On Track for Success: The Use of Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems to Build a Grad Nation (United States)

    Bruce, Mary; Bridgeland, John M.; Fox, Joanna Hornig; Balfanz, Robert


    Over the past decade, schools, districts, and states have become increasingly savvy with data collection and analysis to drive student outcomes. The development and use of Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems (EWS) are at the cutting edge of the data- driven, outcomes-focused, high-impact education movement. These systems can increase…

  5. Simulated NASA Satellite Data Products for the NOAA Integrated Coral Reef Observation Network/Coral Reef Early Warning System (United States)

    Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.


    This RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) experiment will demonstrate the use of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and LDCM (Landsat Data Continuity Mission) sensor data as significant input to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) ICON/ CREWS (Integrated Coral Reef Observation System/Coral Reef Early Warning System). The project affects the Coastal Management Program Element of the Applied Sciences Program.

  6. Development of systems for detection, early warning, and control of pipeline leakage in drinking water distribution: a case study. (United States)

    Li, Weifeng; Ling, Wencui; Liu, Suoxiang; Zhao, Jing; Liu, Ruiping; Chen, Qiuwen; Qiang, Zhimin; Qu, Jiuhui


    Water leakage in drinking water distribution systems is a serious problem for many cities and a huge challenge for water utilities. An integrated system for the detection, early warning, and control of pipeline leakage has been developed and successfully used to manage the pipeline networks in selected areas of Beijing. A method based on the geographic information system has been proposed to quickly and automatically optimize the layout of the instruments which detect leaks. Methods are also proposed to estimate the probability of each pipe segment leaking (on the basis of historic leakage data), and to assist in locating the leakage points (based on leakage signals). The district metering area (DMA) strategy is used. Guidelines and a flowchart for establishing a DMA to manage the large-scale looped networks in Beijing are proposed. These different functions have been implemented into a central software system to simplify the day-to-day use of the system. In 2007 the system detected 102 non-obvious leakages (i.e., 14.2% of the total detected in Beijing) in the selected areas, which was estimated to save a total volume of 2,385,000 m3 of water. These results indicate the feasibility, efficiency and wider applicability of this system.

  7. An Assessment of Capacity, Gaps and Opportunities toward Building a Global Early Warning System for Flood Disasters (United States)

    Hong, Y.; Adler, R.; Huffman, G.


    Many governmental emergency management agencies or non-governmental organizations need real-time information on emerging disasters for preparedness and response. However, progress in warnings for hydrologic disasters has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of rainfall fluxes continuously over space and time, due largely to insufficient ground monitoring networks, long delay in data transmission and absence of data sharing protocols among many geopolitically trans-boundary basins. In addition, in-situ gauging stations are often washed away by the very floods they are designed to monitor, making reconstruction of gauges a common post-flood activity around the world. In reality, remote sensing precipitation estimates may be the only source of rainfall information available over much of the globe, particularly for vulnerable countries in the tropics where abundant extreme rain storms and severe flooding events repeat every year. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and weather radar sensors. Today, remote sensing imagery acquired and processed in real time can provide near-real-time rainfall fluxes at relatively fine spatiotemporal scales (kilometers to tens of kilometers and 30-minute to 3-hour). These new suites of rainfall products have the potential to support daily decision-making in analysis of hydrologic hazards. This talk will address several key issues, including remote sensing rainfall retrieval and data assimilation, for hydrologists to develop alternative satellite-based flood warning systems that may supplement in-situ infrastructure when conventional data sources are denied due to natural or administrative causes. This talk will also assess a module-structure global flood prediction system that has been running at real-time by integrating remote sensing forcing

  8. An efficient rapid warning system for earthquakes in the European - Mediterranean region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazet-Roux, G.; Bossu, R; Tome, M.; Giovambattista, R. Di


    Every year a few damaging earthquakes occur in the European-Mediterranean region. It is therefore indispensable to operate a real-time warning system in order to provide rapidly reliable estimates of the location, depth and magnitude of these seismic events. In order to provide this information in a timely manner both to the scientific community and to the European and national authorities dealing with natural hazards and relief organisation, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) has federated a network of seismic networks exchanging their data in quasi real-time. Today, thanks to the Internet, the EMSC receives real-time information about earthquakes from about thirty seismological institutes. As soon as data reach the EMSC, they are displayed on the EMSC Web pages ( A seismic alert is generated for any potentially damaging earthquake in the European-Mediterranean region and disseminated within one hour following its occurrence. Potentially damaging earthquakes are defined as seismic events of magnitude 5 or above in the European-Mediterranean region. The utility of this EMSC service is clearly demonstrated by its following among the public: EMSC e-mail dissemination list has been subscribed by about 300 institutions (ECHO, NGO, civil defence services, seismological institutes) or individuals and the rate of internet connections to EMSC web site dramatically increase following an alert. The aim of this presentation is to give a complete technical description of the EMSC warning system. We will also take this opportunity to thank each of the contributing institutions for their support and efforts to enhance the system performances. (authors)

  9. [Health threats and health system crises. An approach to early warning and response. 2008 SESPAS Report]. (United States)

    Simón Soria, Fernando; Guillén Enríquez, Francisco Javier


    The world is changing more and faster than ever before. New diseases are coming to light each year, controlled diseases are reemerging as potential threats, and natural or man-made disasters are increasingly affecting human health. The "International Health Regulations (2005)" reflect the changes in the response of public health to this new situation. Surveillance of specific diseases and predefined control measures have been replaced by surveillance of public health events of international concern and control measures adapted to each situation. The public health events of international interest are characterized by their seriousness, predictability, the risk of international spread and potential for travel or trade restrictions. The development of the European Early Warning and Response System in 1998 and the creation of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control in 2005 demonstrate political commitment in Europe, with early detection of and response to public health threats. However, timely risk evaluation and response at a national level requires improved data digitalization and accessibility, automatic notification processes, data analysis and dissemination of information, the combination of information from multiple sources and adaptation of public health services. The autonomous regions in Spain are initiating this adaptation process, but interoperability between systems and the development of guidelines for a coordinated response should be steered by the National Interregional Health Council and coordinated by the Ministry of Health. Efficient early warning systems of health threats that allow for a timely response and reduce uncertainty about information would help to minimize the risk of public health crises. The profile of public health threats is nonspecific. Early detection of threats requires access to information from multiple sources and efficient risk assessment. Key factors for improving the response to public health threats are the

  10. Early warning and response system (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Recent advancements towards widespread applications in critical settings. (United States)

    Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith; Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero; Rocklöv, Joacim; Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Tejeda, Gustavo; Benitez, David; Gill, Balvinder; Hakim, S Lokman; Gomes Carvalho, Roberta; Bowman, Leigh; Petzold, Max


    Dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people's health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS) is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level. We report on the development of the EWARS tool, based on users' recommendations into a convenient, user-friendly and reliable software aided by a user's workbook and its field testing in 30 health districts in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico. 34 Health officers from the 30 study districts who had used the original EWARS for 7 to 10 months responded to a questionnaire with mainly open-ended questions. Qualitative content analysis showed that participants were generally satisfied with the tool but preferred open-access vs. commercial software. EWARS users also stated that the geographical unit should be the district, while access to meteorological information should be improved. These recommendations were incorporated into the second-generation EWARS-R, using the free R software, combined with recent surveillance data and resulted in higher sensitivities and positive predictive values of alarm signals compared to the first-generation EWARS. Currently the use of satellite data for meteorological information is being tested and a dashboard is being developed to increase user-friendliness of the tool. The inclusion of other Aedes borne viral diseases is under discussion. EWARS is a pragmatic and useful tool for detecting imminent dengue outbreaks to trigger early response activities.

  11. Early warning and response system (EWARS for dengue outbreaks: Recent advancements towards widespread applications in critical settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laith Hussain-Alkhateeb

    Full Text Available Dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people's health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level.We report on the development of the EWARS tool, based on users' recommendations into a convenient, user-friendly and reliable software aided by a user's workbook and its field testing in 30 health districts in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico.34 Health officers from the 30 study districts who had used the original EWARS for 7 to 10 months responded to a questionnaire with mainly open-ended questions. Qualitative content analysis showed that participants were generally satisfied with the tool but preferred open-access vs. commercial software. EWARS users also stated that the geographical unit should be the district, while access to meteorological information should be improved. These recommendations were incorporated into the second-generation EWARS-R, using the free R software, combined with recent surveillance data and resulted in higher sensitivities and positive predictive values of alarm signals compared to the first-generation EWARS. Currently the use of satellite data for meteorological information is being tested and a dashboard is being developed to increase user-friendliness of the tool. The inclusion of other Aedes borne viral diseases is under discussion.EWARS is a pragmatic and useful tool for detecting imminent dengue outbreaks to trigger early response activities.

  12. Methods of validating the Advanced Diagnosis and Warning system for aircraft ICing Environments (ADWICE) (United States)

    Rosczyk, S.; Hauf, T.; Leifeld, C.


    In-flight icing is one of the most hazardous problems in aviation. It was determined as contributing factor in more than 800 incidents worldwide. And though the meteorological factors of airframe icing become more and more transparent, they have to be integrated into the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) certification rules first. Therefore best way to enhance aviational safety is to know the areas of dangerous icing conditions in order to prevent flying in them. For this reason the German Weather Service (DWD), the Institute for Atmospheric Physics at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and the Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (ImuK) of the University of Hanover started developingADWICE - theAdvanced Diagnosis and Warning system for aircraft ICing Environments - in 1998. This algorithm is based on the DWDLocal Model (LM) forecast of temperature and humidity, in fusion with radar and synop and, coming soon, satellite data. It gives an every-hour nowcast of icing severity and type - divided into four categories: freezing rain, convective, stratiform and general - for the middle European area. A first validation of ADWICE took place in 1999 with observational data from an in-flight icing campaign during EURICE in 1997. The momentary validation deals with a broader database. As first step the output from ADWICE is compared to observations from pilots (PIREPs) to get a statistic of the probability of detecting icing and either no-icing conditions within the last icing-seasons. There were good results of this method with the AmericanIntegrated Icing Diagnostic Algorithm (IIDA). A problem though is the small number of PIREPs from Europe in comparison to the US. So a temporary campaign of pilots (including Lufthansa and Aerolloyd) collecting cloud and icing information every few miles is intended to solve this unpleasant situation. Another source of data are the measurements of theFalcon - a DLR research aircraft carrying an icing sensor. In addition to that

  13. Pediatric Early Warning Score Systems, Nurses Perspective - A Focus Group Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Claus Sixtus; Nielsen, Pia Bonde; Olesen, Hanne Vebert


    PURPOSE: Pediatric early warning score (PEWS) systems are used to monitor pediatric patients' vital signs and facilitate the treatment of patients at risk of deteriorating. The aim of this study was to gain knowledge about nurses' experiences with PEWS and to highlight factors facilitating...... and impeding the use of PEWS tools in clinical practice. DESIGN AND METHODS: An exploratory qualitative design was chosen using focus group interviews to gain a deeper understanding of nurses' experiences with PEWS. A total of five focus group interviews were conducted at three hospitals, and a qualitative......'s - a challenge, v) PEWS helps to visualize the need for escalating care, vi) an inflexible and challenging tool, and vii) supportive tools enhance the nurses' experiences of PEWS positively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that attention should be given to nurses' perceptions of how both clinical judgment...

  14. Assessing Potential of VIIRS Data for Contribution to a Forest Threat Early Warning System (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.


    This viewgraph presentation reviews the contributions by the Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) towards using Visible Infrared Imager / Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data in assessing the damage to forests. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandates development of national Early Warning System (EWS) for forest threat monitoring and mitigation. NASA Stennis is working with the US Forest Service to develop needed components of this EWS. The use of MODIS data for monitoring forest disturbance at broad regional scales is a componet of this program. This RPC experiment was initiated to assess potential of the MODIS follow-on, VIIRS, for monitoring forest disturbance at broad scales and thereby contributing to the EWS. This presentation reviews the potential use of the VIIRS to examine the damage to forests caused by gyspy moths in the West Virginia and Virginia area.

  15. The challenge of installing a tsunami early warning system in the vicinity of the Sunda Arc, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lauterjung


    Full Text Available Indonesia is located along the most prominent active continental margin in the Indian Ocean, the so-called Sunda Arc and, therefore, is one of the most threatened regions of the world in terms of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis. On 26 December 2004 the third largest earthquake ever instrumentally recorded (magnitude 9.3, Stein and Okal, 2005 occurred off-shore northern Sumatra and triggered a mega-tsunami affecting the whole Indian Ocean. Almost a quarter of a million people were killed, as the region was not prepared either in terms of early-warning or in terms of disaster response.

    In order to be able to provide, in future, a fast and reliable warning procedure for the population, Germany, immediately after the catastrophe, offered during the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Hyogo/Japan in January 2005 technical support for the development and installation of a tsunami early warning system for the Indian Ocean in addition to assistance in capacity building in particular for local communities. This offer was accepted by Indonesia but also by other countries like Sri Lanka, the Maldives and some East-African countries. Anyhow the main focus of our activities has been carried out in Indonesia as the main source of tsunami threat for the entire Indian Ocean. Challenging for the technical concept of this warning system are the extremely short warning times for Indonesia, due to its vicinity to the Sunda Arc. For this reason the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS integrates different modern and new scientific monitoring technologies and analysis methods.

  16. Air shower simulation for WASAVIES: warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, T.; Kataoka, R.; Yasuda, H.; Yashiro, S.; Kuwabara, T.; Shiota, D.; Kubo, Y.


    post-exposure evaluation of SEP doses, but none of the existing models can forecast the doses. These situations were summarised by Shea and Smart. The necessity of SEP dose forecasting was also intensively discussed in Japan. In reply to the discussion, the development of a warning system for aviation exposure to SEPs, WASAVIES, was initiated. The system is designed to deterministically forecast the SEP doses for any flight condition within 6 h after flare onset. The full explanation of WASAVIES itself is beyond the scope of this paper, but the basic calculation procedures of WASAVIES can be summarised as follows: - to detect ground level enhancement (GLE) onset by multiple ground-based neutron monitors, - to determine the SEP fluxes incident on the magnetosphere using the mean free path of SEPs and a database developed on the basis of a focused transport simulation along the interplanetary magnetic field, - to calculate the SEP fluxes incident on the atmosphere using a proton trace model inside the magnetosphere, - to calculate the fluxes of SEPs and their secondary particles on flight routes using a database developed on the basis of air shower simulation, and - to convert the calculated fluxes to the effective dose using the fluence-to-dose conversion coefficients. This paper focuses on describing the fourth and fifth procedures and verifies the accuracy of the air shower simulation. The response function of particle fluxes generated by the incidence of monoenergetic protons into the atmosphere was developed on the basis of air-shower simulation performed by PHITS. The increase count rates of the neutron monitor at Thule during GLE70 were calculated using the response function in combination with the incident SEP fluxes measured by PAMELA. A fairly good agreement was observed between the calculated and measured count rates, verifying the accuracy of the air shower simulation. The response function will be implemented in the WASAVIES system, which is designed to

  17. Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Brickley, Elizabeth B.


    The US Agency for International Development (USAID) s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. Here we analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data was used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10%, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

  18. An early warning system for incursions of Bluetongue disease to the UK (United States)

    Burgin, Laura; Sanders, Christopher; Carpenter, Simon; Mellor, Philip; Gloster, John


    Since 2006 northern Europe has been in the midst of an extensive epidemic of the animal disease, Bluetongue, which has cost the European economy hundreds of millions of euros due to death, sickness and movement restrictions of livestock. Bluetongue is spread by biting midges which can be carried for hundreds of kilometers on the wind. A scheme within the UK Met Office's dispersion model, the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), has been developed to reflect the effects of meteorology on the long-distance transport of these midge vectors. The scheme is based on data from field and laboratory experiments carried out at the Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright. From these experiments, certain threshold values which define when midges do not become airborne have been obtained for several meteorological variables. Within NAME, particles representing midges are removed from the model atmosphere if these thresholds are exceeded. Following outbreaks of the disease in Belgium and the Netherlands in 2006, an early-warning website was developed based on the model, to provide the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) advance knowledge of potential disease incursions by infected midges carried on the wind across the English Channel. The service has been in daily operation since April 2007 and correctly warned of the high risk of an incursion of infected midges causing the first UK outbreak in Suffolk on 4 August 2007. The website has since been expanded to predict potential incursions of disease into the Channel Islands and Northern Ireland and was used to inform on vaccination policy decisions by Defra and the Scottish government.

  19. Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)



    Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T dur . T dur can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus (μ) while T dur may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or μ. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/μ, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T dur is proportional L and greater Mo/μ. Because Mo/μ is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant can be completed within 4–5 min after an earthquake

  20. Effects of stressor characteristics on early warning signs of critical transitions and "critical coupling" in complex dynamical systems. (United States)

    Blume, Steffen O P; Sansavini, Giovanni


    Complex dynamical systems face abrupt transitions into unstable and catastrophic regimes. These critical transitions are triggered by gradual modifications in stressors, which push the dynamical system towards unstable regimes. Bifurcation analysis can characterize such critical thresholds, beyond which systems become unstable. Moreover, the stochasticity of the external stressors causes small-scale fluctuations in the system response. In some systems, the decomposition of these signal fluctuations into precursor signals can reveal early warning signs prior to the critical transition. Here, we present a dynamical analysis of a power system subjected to an increasing load level and small-scale stochastic load perturbations. We show that the auto- and cross-correlations of bus voltage magnitudes increase, leading up to a Hopf bifurcation point, and further grow until the system collapses. This evidences a gradual transition into a state of "critical coupling," which is complementary to the established concept of "critical slowing down." Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the type of load perturbation and load characteristics on early warning signs and find that gradient changes in the autocorrelation provide early warning signs of the imminent critical transition under white-noise but not for auto-correlated load perturbations. Furthermore, the cross-correlation between all voltage magnitude pairs generally increases prior to and beyond the Hopf bifurcation point, indicating "critical coupling," but cannot provide early warning indications. Finally, we show that the established early warning indicators are oblivious to limit-induced bifurcations and, in the case of the power system model considered here, only react to an approaching Hopf bifurcation.

  1. A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing


    surface model-flood inundation model to produce hydrological variables and indices at daily, 0.25-degree resolution, globally. The system is updated in near real-time (products from the system include real-time and forecast drought indices for precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow, and flood magnitude and extent indices. The model outputs are complemented by satellite based products and indices based on satellite data for vegetation health (MODIS NDVI) and soil moisture (SMAP). We show examples of the validation of the system at regional scales, including how local information can significantly improve predictions, and examples of how the system can be used to understand large-scale water resource issues, and in real-world contexts for early warning, decision making and planning.

  2. Application of Advanced Wide Area Early Warning Systems with Adaptive Protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blumstein, Carl [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Cibulka, Lloyd [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Thorp, James [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Centeno, Virgilio [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); King, Roger [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Reeves, Kari [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Ashrafi, Frank [Southern California Edison Co., Rosemead, CA (United States); Madani, Vahid [Pacific Gas & Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)


    Recent blackouts of power systems in North America and throughout the world have shown how critical a reliable power system is to modern societies, and the enormous economic and societal damage a blackout can cause. It has been noted that unanticipated operation of protection systems can contribute to cascading phenomena and, ultimately, blackouts. This project developed and field-tested two methods of Adaptive Protection systems utilizing synchrophasor data. One method detects conditions of system stress that can lead to unintended relay operation, and initiates a supervisory signal to modify relay response in real time to avoid false trips. The second method detects the possibility of false trips of impedance relays as stable system swings “encroach” on the relays’ impedance zones, and produces an early warning so that relay engineers can re-evaluate relay settings. In addition, real-time synchrophasor data produced by this project was used to develop advanced visualization techniques for display of synchrophasor data to utility operators and engineers.

  3. Miniaturized Water Flow and Level Monitoring System for Flood Disaster Early Warning (United States)

    Ifedapo Abdullahi, Salami; Hadi Habaebi, Mohamed; Surya Gunawan, Teddy; Rafiqul Islam, MD


    This study presents the performance of a prototype miniaturised water flow and water level monitoring sensor designed towards supporting flood disaster early warning systems. The design involved selection of sensors, coding to control the system mechanism, and automatic data logging and storage. During the design phase, the apparatus was constructed where all the components were assembled using locally sourced items. Subsequently, under controlled laboratory environment, the system was tested by running water through the inlet during which the flow rate and rising water levels are automatically recorded and stored in a database via Microsoft Excel using Coolterm software. The system is simulated such that the water level readings measured in centimeters is output in meters using a multiplicative of 10. A total number of 80 readings were analyzed to evaluate the performance of the system. The result shows that the system is sensitive to water level rise and yielded accurate measurement of water level. But, the flow rate fluctuates due to the manual water supply that produced inconsistent flow. It was also observed that the flow sensor has a duty cycle of 50% of operating time under normal condition which implies that the performance of the flow sensor is optimal.

  4. The Research of the Crisis Pre-Warning Management System under the Particularity of Nationalities Universities and Colleges (United States)

    Wang, Hui


    The nationalities universities and colleges set up the crisis pre-warning management system, not only related to the management of our nationalities universities and colleges and their growth, but also related to the country's national unity plan in some way. However, because of minority students in the particularity of the national cultural…

  5. Comparing Methodologies for Developing an Early Warning System: Classification and Regression Tree Model versus Logistic Regression. REL 2015-077 (United States)

    Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov


    The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules by…

  6. Supporting Early Warning Systems: Using Data to Keep Students on Track to Success. Data for Action 2012 (United States)

    Data Quality Campaign, 2012


    Supporting early warning systems is important because keeping students on track is vital to graduating all students college and career ready. Failing to keep students on track toward completing high school has perilous consequences for students, communities, and the economy. Predictive analyses are important to ensuring students are on track.…


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Adlazim


    Full Text Available Indonesia has an Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purpose of this study is to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor Sea, Banda Sea, Arafura Sea and Pacific Ocean using a direct procedure and software developed Lomax and Michelini for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential by deriving two simple measures from vertical component broadband P-wave velocity record. The first is the high-frequency apparent rupture duration, Tdur which may be related to can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L, depth (z, and shear modulus (μ. The second is a confirmation of the earlier finding by Lomax and Michelini, namely that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and Depth. We analyzed at least 510 vertical seismogram recorded by GEOFON-IA and IRIS-DMC networks. Our analysis shows that the seismic potency, LWD, which is more obviously related to capability to generate a tsunami than former. The larger Tdur the larger is the seismic potency LWD because Tdur is proportional to L/vr (with vr – rupture velocity. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant can be completed within 3 to 8 min after the P-onset.

  8. Tsunami early warning and decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Steinmetz


    Full Text Available An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS. The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010. While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen

  9. The early warning system of landslides and sediment runoffs using meteorological condition including rainfall-soil moisture index (Invited) (United States)

    Kubota, T.; Silva, I. C.; Hasnawir, H.


    The research including observation of rain, soil moisture content and sediment discharge is conducted on a torrent in northern Kyushu whose geology consists of Paleozoic metamorphic rocks (mainly schist) and whose vegetation consists of mainly Japanese cypress and cedar. Soil depth is approximately 50cm in average and permeability k is 0.1~0.01 order. With data obtained by the observation for more than 4 years, standard rainfalls of warning and evacuation against the sudden sediment runoffs are analyzed. Then, the result was compared with the ones in Nuevo Leon Mexico (geology of schist, slate, k=0.01~0.001 order) and in southern Sulawesi Island Indonesia (volcanic geology, k=0.001~0.0001 order). Hitherto, various methods were proposed to analyze the warning critical standard for landslide disaster or large sediment discharge. In this study, we employed Hirano's element slope runoff theory, the Self Organized Criticality Assumption (SOC), and the Elementary Catastrophe Theory (ETC) to analyze the data, although the soil moisture fluctuation, meteorological condition such as upper air wind and dew point depression, the rainfall-soil moisture index provided by Japan Meteorological Agency was considered. The last one is a cutting edge technology based on the tank model calculation of soil moisture content combined with short term rainfall prediction which is a product of numerical simulation using radar image advection analysis compensated with surface rain data and with orographic rain effect. In Hirano's theory, we can describe the critical rain Rc and rain intensity Ric as following equation. Q/A/M/ cosθ = Ri ∫(r*cosθ)dt = Ri*R (1) ∴ Ric*Rc = C (2) Here, Q: sediment runoff or debris flow discharge, A: watershed area, M: function concerning with sediment deposit features on the upstream torrents or slopes (porosity, torrent bed slope gradient, sediment accumulation length and depth, cohesion), t: time, θ: torrent bed or hillside slope gradient, r: instant

  10. Application of Virtual Rain and Stream Gauge Information Service for Improved Flood Early Warning System in Lower Mekong Countries (United States)

    Basnayake, S. B.; Jayasinghe, S.; Meechaiya, C.; Markert, K. N.; Lee, H.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.; Okeowo, M. A.


    Asia is the most vulnerable region in the world to hydro-meteorological extreme events, exacerbated by climate variability and change. Impacts of floods have been on the rapid increase in the recent decades. Myanmar is one of the most vulnerable countries in the lower Mekong region due to its socioeconomic situation (eg; Nargis in 2008, monsoon floods in 2015, etc). Early warning is an effective way to prepare for hydro-meteorological hazards, to minimize disaster risks; however, early warning systems in Myanmar are seriously hampered by limited observation networks. The Virtual Rain and Stream Gauge Information Service (VRSGIS) has been developed by SERVIR-Mekong program of Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) to address these gaps and to provide dense, satellite-based rainfall and water level data, which are calibrated and validated with available in-situ observations. This service would enhance decision making in lower Mekong countries, including Myanmar, to minimize impacts of impending disasters. This service contains rainfall data from GPM IMERG and GSMap, CMORPH, TRMM, and CHIRPS, and water levels for 15 locations using Jason-2/3 altimetry. The virtual daily rainfall data sets are being calibrated with Gamma distribution method and are made publicly accessible through a user-friendly web interface.This paper presents a case study of satellite-derived rainfall data accessed from VRSGIS for hydrological modeling in Myanmar, to estimate inundation areas in Kalay township area of Chindwin River basin during the country's worst flood in 2015. Twelve out of fourteen States of Myanmar were severely affected, 103 people were killed, and one million were displaced due to heavy rains associated with Komen cyclone. The aforementioned rainfall data products are used as inputs for HEC-HMS hydrological runoff model to calculate river flows along Chindwin River, and HEC-RAS hydraulic model is used to estimate inundation areas in downstream including Kalay township

  11. Earthquake early Warning ShakeAlert system: West coast wide production prototype (United States)

    Kohler, Monica D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Neuhauser, Doug; Hensen, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Bodin, Paul; Kress, Victor; Thompson, Stephen; Felizardo, Claude; Brody, Jeff; Bhadha, Rayo; Schwarz, Stan


    Earthquake early warning (EEW) is an application of seismological science that can give people, as well as mechanical and electrical systems, up to tens of seconds to take protective actions before peak earthquake shaking arrives at a location. Since 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working in collaboration with several partners to develop EEW for the United States. The goal is to create and operate an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the highest risk areas of the United States, starting with the West Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. In early 2016, the Production Prototype v.1.0 was established for California; then, in early 2017, v.1.2 was established for the West Coast, with earthquake notifications being distributed to a group of beta users in California, Oregon, and Washington. The new ShakeAlert Production Prototype was an outgrowth from an earlier demonstration EEW system that began sending test notifications to selected users in California in January 2012. ShakeAlert leverages the considerable physical, technical, and organizational earthquake monitoring infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System, a nationwide federation of cooperating seismic networks. When fully implemented, the ShakeAlert system may reduce damage and injury caused by large earthquakes, improve the nation’s resilience, and speed recovery.

  12. Towards the Adriatic meteotsunami early warning system: modelling strategy and validation (United States)

    Denamiel, Clea; Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica


    Destructive meteotsunamis are known to occur along the eastern Adriatic coastal areas and islands (Vilibić and Šepić, 2009). The temporal lag between the offshore generation of meteotsunamis due to specific atmospheric conditions and the arrival of a dangerous nearshore propagating wave at known locations is of the order of tens of minutes to a couple of hours. In order to reduce the coastal risk for the coastal communities, an early warning system must rely on the ability to detect these extreme storms offshore with in-situ measurements and to predict the hydrodynamic response nearshore via numerical models within this short time lag. However, the numerical modelling of meteotsunamis requires both temporal and spatial high-resolution atmospheric and ocean models which are highly demanding concerning time and computer resources. Furthermore, both a multi-model approach and an ensemble modelling strategy should be used to better forecast the distribution of the nearshore impact of meteotsunamis. The modelling strategy used in this study thus rely on the development of an operational atmosphere-ocean model of the Adriatic Sea at 1km spatial resolution based on the state-of-the-art fully coupled COAWST model (Warner et al., 2010). The model allows for generation of meteotsunamis offshore, while various high-resolution (up to 5m) nearshore hydrodynamic models (such as ADCIRC - Luettich and Westerink, 1991; SELFE - Zhang et al., 2008 and GeoClaw - LeVeque, 2012) are setup to properly reproduce meteotsunami dynamics of the entire Croatian coastal areas, which are characterized by a great number of islands, channels and bays. The implementation and validation of each component of this modelling system is first undertaken for the well documented meteotsunami event (Šepić et al., 2016), which was recorded along the Croatian Adriatic coast on the 25th and the 26th of June 2014. The validation of the modelling strategy as well as the model results is presented and

  13. New radiation warning sign

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mac Kenzie, C.; Mason, C.


    Full text: Radiation accidents involving orphan radioactive sources have happened as a result of people not recognizing the radiation trefoil symbol or from being illiterate and not understanding a warning statement on the radiation source. The trefoil symbol has no inherent meaning to people that have not been instructed in its use. A new radiation warning sign, to supplement the existing trefoil symbol, has been developed to address these issues. Human Factors experts, United Nations member states, and members of the international community of radiation protection professionals were consulted for input on the design of a new radiation warning sign that would clearly convey the message of 'Danger- Run Away- Stay Away' when in close proximity to a dangerous source of radiation. Cultural differences of perception on various warning symbols were taken into consideration and arrays of possible signs were developed. The signs were initially tested in international children for identification with the desired message and response. Based on these test results and further input from radiation protection professionals, five warning signs were identified as the most successful in conveying the desired message and response. These five signs were tested internationally in eleven countries by a professional survey company to determine the best sign for this purpose. The conclusion of the international testing is presented. The new radiation warning sign is currently a draft ISO standard under committee review. The design of the propose d radiation warning sign and the proposed implementation strategy outlined in the draft ISO standard is presented. (authors)

  14. A Real-Time Measurement System for Long-Life Flood Monitoring and Warning Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Skarmeta Gómez


    Full Text Available A flood warning system incorporates telemetered rainfall and flow/water level data measured at various locations in the catchment area. Real-time accurate data collection is required for this use, and sensor networks improve the system capabilities. However, existing sensor nodes struggle to satisfy the hydrological requirements in terms of autonomy, sensor hardware compatibility, reliability and long-range communication. We describe the design and development of a real-time measurement system for flood monitoring, and its deployment in a flash-flood prone 650 km2 semiarid watershed in Southern Spain. A developed low-power and long-range communication device, so-called DatalogV1, provides automatic data gathering and reliable transmission. DatalogV1 incorporates self-monitoring for adapting measurement schedules for consumption management and to capture events of interest. Two tests are used to assess the success of the development. The results show an autonomous and robust monitoring system for long-term collection of water level data inmany sparse locations during flood events.

  15. Early Warning Indicators for Population-Based Monitoring of HIV Drug Resistance in 6 African Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sigaloff, Kim C. E.; Hamers, Raph L.; Menke, Jack; Labib, Moheb; Siwale, Margaret; Ive, Prudence; Botes, Mariette E.; Kityo, Cissy; Mandaliya, Kishor; Wellington, Maureen; Osibogun, Akin; Geskus, Ronald B.; Stevens, Wendy S.; van Vugt, Michèle; Rinke de Wit, Tobias F.


    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA testing and HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) testing are not routinely available for therapeutic monitoring of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. World Health Organization HIVDR early warning indicators (EWIs) assess ART

  16. Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System (United States)

    Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.


    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process

  17. The Role of Cash Flow in Financial Early Warning of Agricultural Enterprises Based on Logistic Model (United States)

    Sun, Fengru


    This paper chooses the agricultural listed companies as the research object, compares the financial situation of the enterprise and the theory of financial early warning, combines the financial status of the agricultural listed companies, selects the relevant cash flow indicators, discusses the application of the Logistic financial early warning model in the agricultural listed companies, Agricultural enterprises get better development. Research on financial early warning of agricultural listed companies will help the agricultural listed companies to predict the financial crisis. Financial early warning model is simple to establish, operational and strong, the use of financial early warning model, to help enterprises in the financial crisis before taking rapid and effective measures, which can avoid losses. Help enterprises to discover signs of deterioration of the financial situation in time to maintain the sustainable development of agricultural enterprises. In addition, through the financial early warning model, investors can correctly identify the financial situation of agricultural enterprises, and can evaluate the financial situation of agricultural enterprises and to help investors to invest in scientific and rational, beneficial to investors to analyze the safety of investment. But also help the relevant regulatory agencies to effectively monitor the market and promote the healthy and stable development of the market.

  18. The PRESSCA operational early warning system for landslide forecasting: the 11-12 November 2013 rainfall event in Central Italy. (United States)

    Ciabatta, Luca; Brocca, Luca; Ponziani, Francesco; Berni, Nicola; Stelluti, Marco; Moramarco, Tommaso


    The Umbria Region, located in Central Italy, is one of the most landslide risk prone area in Italy, almost yearly affected by landslides events at different spatial scales. For early warning procedures aimed at the assessment of the hydrogeological risk, the rainfall thresholds represent the main tool for the Italian Civil Protection System. As shown in previous studies, soil moisture plays a key-role in landslides triggering. In fact, acting on the pore water pressure, soil moisture influences the rainfall amount needed for activating a landslide. In this work, an operational physically-based early warning system, named PRESSCA, that takes into account soil moisture for the definition of rainfall thresholds is presented. Specifically, the soil moisture conditions are evaluated in PRESSCA by using a distributed soil water balance model that is recently coupled with near real-time satellite soil moisture product obtained from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) and from in-situ monitoring data. The integration of three different sources of soil moisture information allows to estimate the most accurate possible soil moisture condition. Then, both observed and forecasted rainfall data are compared with the soil moisture-based thresholds in order to obtain risk indicators over a grid of ~ 5 km. These indicators are then used for the daily hydrogeological risk evaluation and management by the Civil Protection regional service, through the sharing/delivering of near real-time landslide risk scenarios (also through an open source web platform: On the 11th-12th November, 2013, Umbria Region was hit by an exceptional rainfall event with up to 430mm/72hours that resulted in significant economic damages, but fortunately no casualties among the population. In this study, the results during the rainfall event of PRESSCA system are described, by underlining the model capability to reproduce, two days in advance, landslide risk scenarios in good spatial and temporal

  19. Prototype early warning system for heart disease detection using Android Application. (United States)

    Zennifa, Fadilla; Fitrilina; Kamil, Husnil; Iramina, Keiji


    Heart Disease affects approximately 70 million people worldwide where most people do not even know the symptoms. This research examines the prototype of early warning system for heart disease by android application. It aims to facilitate users to early detect heart disease which can be used independently. To build the application in android phone, variable centered intelligence rule system (VCIRS) as decision makers and pulse sensor - Arduino as heart rate detector were applied in this study. Moreover, in Arduino, the heart rate will become an input for symptoms in Android Application. The output of this system is the conclusion statement of users diagnosed with either coronary heart disease, hypertension heart disease, rheumatic heart disease or do not get any kind of heart disease. The result of diagnosis followed by analysis of the value of usage variable rate (VUR) rule usage rate (RUR) and node usage rate (NUR) that shows the value of the rule that will increase when the symptoms frequently appear. This application was compared with the medical analysis from 35 cases of heart disease and it showed concordance between diagnosis from android application and expert diagnosis of the doctors.

  20. Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Middle and High School Age Groupings (Grades 7-12) (United States)

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013


    The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

  1. Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Early and Late Elementary Age Groupings (Grades 1-6) (United States)

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013


    The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

  2. Instrumentation Recommendations for Volcano Monitoring at U.S. Volcanoes Under the National Volcano Early Warning System (United States)

    Moran, Seth C.; Freymueller, Jeff T.; LaHusen, Richard G.; McGee, Kenneth A.; Poland, Michael P.; Power, John A.; Schmidt, David A.; Schneider, David J.; Stephens, George; Werner, Cynthia A.; White, Randall A.


    As magma moves toward the surface, it interacts with anything in its path: hydrothermal systems, cooling magma bodies from previous eruptions, and (or) the surrounding 'country rock'. Magma also undergoes significant changes in its physical properties as pressure and temperature conditions change along its path. These interactions and changes lead to a range of geophysical and geochemical phenomena. The goal of volcano monitoring is to detect and correctly interpret such phenomena in order to provide early and accurate warnings of impending eruptions. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to both ground-based populations (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989) and aviation (for example, Neal and others, 1997; Miller and Casadevall, 2000), volcano monitoring is critical for public safety and hazard mitigation. Only with adequate monitoring systems in place can volcano observatories provide accurate and timely forecasts and alerts of possible eruptive activity. At most U.S. volcanoes, observatories traditionally have employed a two-component approach to volcano monitoring: (1) install instrumentation sufficient to detect unrest at volcanic systems likely to erupt in the not-too-distant future; and (2) once unrest is detected, install any instrumentation needed for eruption prediction and monitoring. This reactive approach is problematic, however, for two reasons. 1. At many volcanoes, rapid installation of new ground-1. based instruments is difficult or impossible. Factors that complicate rapid response include (a) eruptions that are preceded by short (hours to days) precursory sequences of geophysical and (or) geochemical activity, as occurred at Mount Redoubt (Alaska) in 1989 (24 hours), Anatahan (Mariana Islands) in 2003 (6 hours), and Mount St. Helens (Washington) in 1980 and 2004 (7 and 8 days, respectively); (b) inclement weather conditions, which may prohibit installation of new equipment for days, weeks, or even months, particularly at

  3. Switch of Sensitivity Dynamics Revealed with DyGloSA Toolbox for Dynamical Global Sensitivity Analysis as an Early Warning for System's Critical Transition (United States)

    Baumuratova, Tatiana; Dobre, Simona; Bastogne, Thierry; Sauter, Thomas


    Systems with bifurcations may experience abrupt irreversible and often unwanted shifts in their performance, called critical transitions. For many systems like climate, economy, ecosystems it is highly desirable to identify indicators serving as early warnings of such regime shifts. Several statistical measures were recently proposed as early warnings of critical transitions including increased variance, autocorrelation and skewness of experimental or model-generated data. The lack of automatized tool for model-based prediction of critical transitions led to designing DyGloSA – a MATLAB toolbox for dynamical global parameter sensitivity analysis (GPSA) of ordinary differential equations models. We suggest that the switch in dynamics of parameter sensitivities revealed by our toolbox is an early warning that a system is approaching a critical transition. We illustrate the efficiency of our toolbox by analyzing several models with bifurcations and predicting the time periods when systems can still avoid going to a critical transition by manipulating certain parameter values, which is not detectable with the existing SA techniques. DyGloSA is based on the SBToolbox2 and contains functions, which compute dynamically the global sensitivity indices of the system by applying four main GPSA methods: eFAST, Sobol's ANOVA, PRCC and WALS. It includes parallelized versions of the functions enabling significant reduction of the computational time (up to 12 times). DyGloSA is freely available as a set of MATLAB scripts at It requires installation of MATLAB (versions R2008b or later) and the Systems Biology Toolbox2 available at DyGloSA can be run on Windows and Linux systems, -32 and -64 bits. PMID:24367574

  4. Switch of sensitivity dynamics revealed with DyGloSA toolbox for dynamical global sensitivity analysis as an early warning for system's critical transition. (United States)

    Baumuratova, Tatiana; Dobre, Simona; Bastogne, Thierry; Sauter, Thomas


    Systems with bifurcations may experience abrupt irreversible and often unwanted shifts in their performance, called critical transitions. For many systems like climate, economy, ecosystems it is highly desirable to identify indicators serving as early warnings of such regime shifts. Several statistical measures were recently proposed as early warnings of critical transitions including increased variance, autocorrelation and skewness of experimental or model-generated data. The lack of automatized tool for model-based prediction of critical transitions led to designing DyGloSA - a MATLAB toolbox for dynamical global parameter sensitivity analysis (GPSA) of ordinary differential equations models. We suggest that the switch in dynamics of parameter sensitivities revealed by our toolbox is an early warning that a system is approaching a critical transition. We illustrate the efficiency of our toolbox by analyzing several models with bifurcations and predicting the time periods when systems can still avoid going to a critical transition by manipulating certain parameter values, which is not detectable with the existing SA techniques. DyGloSA is based on the SBToolbox2 and contains functions, which compute dynamically the global sensitivity indices of the system by applying four main GPSA methods: eFAST, Sobol's ANOVA, PRCC and WALS. It includes parallelized versions of the functions enabling significant reduction of the computational time (up to 12 times). DyGloSA is freely available as a set of MATLAB scripts at It requires installation of MATLAB (versions R2008b or later) and the Systems Biology Toolbox2 available at DyGloSA can be run on Windows and Linux systems, -32 and -64 bits.

  5. Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals (United States)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.


    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline

  6. Signalling fiscal stress in the euro area - a country-specific early warning system


    Hernández de Cos, Pablo; Koester, Gerrit B.; Moral-Benito, Enrique; Nickel, Christiane


    The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to indicate the build?up of fiscal stress early on and to facilitate crisis prevention by a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible improvements to enhance existing early warning indicators for fiscal stress, especially for the euro area. We show that a country?specific approach could strongly increase the signalling power of early war...

  7. A Drought Early Warning System Using System Dynamics Model and Seasonal Climate Forecasts: a case study in Hsinchu, Taiwan. (United States)

    Tien, Yu-Chuan; Tung, Ching-Ping; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Lin, Chia-Yu


    In the last twenty years, Hsinchu, a county of Taiwan, has experienced a tremendous growth in water demand due to the development of Hsinchu Science Park. In order to fulfill the water demand, the government has built the new reservoir, Baoshan second reservoir. However, short term droughts still happen. One of the reasons is that the water level of the reservoirs in Hsinchu cannot be reasonably forecasted, which sometimes even underestimates the severity of drought. The purpose of this study is to build a drought early warning system that projects the water levels of two important reservoirs, Baoshan and Baoshan second reservoir, and also the spatial distribution of water shortagewith the lead time of three months. Furthermore, this study also attempts to assist the government to improve water resources management. Hence, a system dynamics model of Touchien River, which is the most important river for public water supply in Hsinchu, is developed. The model consists of several important subsystems, including two reservoirs, water treatment plants and agricultural irrigation districts. Using the upstream flow generated by seasonal weather forecasting data, the model is able to simulate the storage of the two reservoirs and the distribution of water shortage. More