WorldWideScience

Sample records for warning signals

  1. 49 CFR 218.73 - Warning signal display.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... signal display. (a) Warning signals, i.e., a white disk with the words “Occupied Camp Car” in black.... Once the signals have been displayed— (1) The camp cars may not be moved for coupling to other rolling...) Warning signals indicating the presence of occupied camp cars, displayed in accordance with §§ 218.75 and...

  2. 49 CFR 393.19 - Hazard warning signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Hazard warning signals. 393.19 Section 393.19... signals. The hazard warning signal operating unit on each commercial motor vehicle shall operate independently of the ignition or equivalent switch, and when activated, cause all turn signals required by § 393...

  3. 46 CFR 98.30-33 - Warning signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning signals. 98.30-33 Section 98.30-33 Shipping... Warning signals. (a) If the vessel is moored, no person may transfer to or from a portable tank a product... a red flag. (c) The signal required in paragraphs (a) and (b) of this section must be visible on all...

  4. Early Warning Signals - conceptual limitations and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathiany, Sebastian; Claussen, Martin; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Due to potentially large positive feedbacks in the climate system, the existence of tipping points is under debate. At these points, small changes in forcing can lead to abrupt climate change due to the destabilising feedbacks. In order to predict such abrupt changes or to distinguish changes in stability from random state transitions, it has been proposed to exploit statistical precursors of instabilities, also called early warning signals (EWS). However, we argue that the limitations of the underlying concept generally do not allow conclusions on the mechanism of abrupt changes without substantial physical knowledge - the burden of proof lies with the applier of EWS. We demonstrate these limitations with examples from vegetation dynamics and sea ice cover change in models of very different complexity. Apart from the practical problem of short and non-stationary time-series, statistical properties such as variance and autocorrelation usually change for reasons unrelated to the system's stability. In particular, it has to be known, how the natural variability (noise) in a system is caused and how it propagates through the system. A further fundamental limitation is imposed by the large number of spatial degrees of freedom. The benefit of EWS has only been shown in idealised systems of predefined spatial extent. In a more general context like a complex climate system model, the critical subsystem that exhibits a loss in stability (hotspot) and the critical mode of the transition may be unknown. An abrupt change can therefore come as a surprise. However, we suggest that EWS can be applied as a diagnostic tool to find the hotspot of a sudden transition and to distinguish this hotspot from regions experiencing an induced tipping. For this purpose we present a scheme which identifies a hotspot as a certain combination of grid cells which maximise an EWS. The method can provide information on the causality of sudden transitions and may help to improve the knowledge on

  5. Multisensory in-car warning signals for collision avoidance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Cristy; Reed, Nick; Spence, Charles

    2007-12-01

    A driving simulator study was conducted in order to assess the relative utility of unimodal auditory, unimodal vibrotactile, and combined audiotactile (i.e., multisensory) in-car warning signals to alert and inform drivers of likely front-to-rear-end collision events in a situation modeled on real-world driving. The implementation of nonvisual in-car warning signals may have important safety implications in lessening any visual overload during driving. Multisensory integration can provide synergistic facilitation effects. The participants drove along a rural road in a car-following scenario in either the presence or absence of a radio program in the background. The brake light signals of the lead vehicle were also unpredictably either enabled or disabled on a trial-by-trial basis. The results showed that the participants initiated their braking responses significantly more rapidly following the presentation of audiotactile warning signals than following the presentation of either unimodal auditory or unimodal vibrotactile warning signals. Multisensory warning signals offer a particularly effective means of capturing driver attention in demanding situations such as driving. The potential value of such multisensory in-car warning signals is explained with reference to recent cognitive neuroscience research.

  6. 46 CFR 105.45-15 - Warning signals and signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning signals and signs. 105.45-15 Section 105.45-15 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS... signals and signs. (a) During transfer of cargo while fast to a dock, a red signal (flag by day and...

  7. Dynamic vibrotactile signals for forward collision avoidance warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Fanxing; Gray, Rob; Ho, Cristy; Ahtamad, Mujthaba; Spence, Charles

    2015-03-01

    Four experiments were conducted in order to assess the effectiveness of dynamic vibrotactile collision-warning signals in potentially enhancing safe driving. Auditory neuroscience research has demonstrated that auditory signals that move toward a person are more salient than those that move away. If this looming effect were found to extend to the tactile modality, then it could be utilized in the context of in-car warning signal design. The effectiveness of various vibrotactile warning signals was assessed using a simulated car-following task. The vibrotactile warning signals consisted of dynamic toward-/away-from-torso cues (Experiment 1), dynamic versus static vibrotactile cues (Experiment 2), looming-intensity- and constant-intensity-toward-torso cues (Experiment 3), and static cues presented on the hands or on the waist, having either a low or high vibration intensity (Experiment 4). Braking reaction times (BRTs) were significantly faster for toward-torso as compared to away-from-torso cues (Experiments 1 and 2) and static cues (Experiment 2). This difference could not have been attributed to differential responses to signals delivered to different body parts (i.e., the waist vs. hands; Experiment 4). Embedding a looming-intensity signal into the toward-torso signal did not result in any additional BRT benefits (Experiment 3). Dynamic vibrotactile cues that feel as though they are approaching the torso can be used to communicate information concerning external events, resulting in a significantly faster reaction time to potential collisions. Dynamic vibrotactile warning signals that move toward the body offer great potential for the design of future in-car collision-warning system. © 2014, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  8. Warning signals for poor performance improve human-robot interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brule, R. van den; Bijlstra, G.; Dotsch, R.; Haselager, W.F.G.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.

    2016-01-01

    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot's nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the robot

  9. Warning signals for poor performance improve human-robot interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brule, R. van den; Bijlstra, G.; Dotsch, R.; Haselager, W.F.G.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.

    2016-01-01

    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot's nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the robot

  10. Warning Signals for Poor Performance Improve Human-Robot Interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brule, Rik; Bijlstra, Gijsbert; Dotsch, Ron; Haselager, Pim; Wigboldus, Daniel HJ

    2016-01-01

    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot’s nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the robot

  11. Warning Signals for Poor Performance Improve Human-Robot Interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brule, Rik; Bijlstra, Gijsbert; Dotsch, Ron; Haselager, Pim; Wigboldus, Daniel HJ

    2016-01-01

    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot’s nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the robot

  12. Warning signals for poor performance improve human-robot interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brule, R. van den; Bijlstra, G.; Dotsch, R.; Haselager, W.F.G.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.

    2016-01-01

    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot's nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the

  13. Perception and meaning of warning signals in urban context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogel, Corsin; Polack, Jean-Dominique; Castellengo, Michèle

    1999-01-01

    Perception of warning signals in urban context points out the question of their efficiency, that is, whether they are identified or not. Results show that contextual constraints influence the perceptual threshold and the identification. The classes of signals obtained can be used to determine new...

  14. Earthquake early warning system using real-time signal processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.

    1996-02-01

    An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.

  15. Deep ocean early warning signals of an Atlantic MOC collapse

    CERN Document Server

    Feng, Qing Yi; Dijkstra, Henk A

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a crucial part of the climate system because of its associated northward heat transport. The present-day MOC is sensitive to freshwater anomalies and may collapse to a state with a strongly reduced northward heat transport. A future collapse of the Atlantic MOC has been identified as one of the most dangerous tipping points in the climate system. It is therefore crucial to develop early warning indicators for such a potential collapse based on relatively short time series. So far, attempts to use indicators based on critical slowdown have been marginally successful. Based on complex climate network reconstruction, we here present a promising new indicator for the MOC collapse that efficiently monitors spatial changes in deep ocean circulation. Through our analysis of the performance of this indicator we formulate optimal locations of measurement of the MOC to provide early warning signals of a collapse. Our results imply that an increase in spatial reso...

  16. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of theinfluenza pandemic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ren Di; Gao Jie

    2011-01-01

    Over the course of human history,influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters,so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars.Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties,chemical characteristics,external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus,and some results have been achieved.Based on the chaos game representation walk model,this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010,and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic.The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years,while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller.In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

  17. Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

    CERN Document Server

    Squartini, Tiziano; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2013-01-01

    The financial crisis marked a paradigm shift, from traditional studies of individual risk to recent research on the "systemic risk" generated by whole networks of institutions. However, the reverse effects of realized defaults on network topology are poorly understood. Here we analyze the Dutch interbank network over the period 1998-2008, ending with the global crisis. We find that many topological properties, after controlling for overall density effects, display an abrupt change in 2008, thus providing a clear but unpredictable signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the intrinsic heterogeneity of banks is controlled for, the same properties undergo a slow and continuous transition, gradually connecting the crisis period to a much earlier stationary phase. This early-warning signal begins in 2005, and is preceded by an even earlier period of "risk autocatalysis" characterized by anomalous debt loops. These remarkable precursors are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific inf...

  18. Early warning signals of desertification transitions in semiarid ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrado, Raffaele; Cherubini, Anna Maria; Pennetta, Cecilia

    2014-12-01

    The identification of early warning signals for regime shifts in ecosystems is of crucial importance given their impact in terms of economic and social effects. We present here the results of a theoretical study on the desertification transition in semiarid ecosystems under external stress. We performed numerical simulations based on a stochastic cellular automaton model, and we studied the dynamics of the vegetation clusters in terms of percolation theory, assumed as an effective tool for analyzing the geometrical properties of the clusters. Focusing on the role played by the strength of external stresses, measured by the mortality rate m , we followed the progressive degradation of the ecosystem for increasing m , identifying different stages: first, the fragmentation transition occurring at relatively low values of m , then the desertification transition at higher mortality rates, and finally the full desertification transition corresponding to the extinction of the vegetation and the almost complete degradation of the soil, attained at the maximum value of m . For each transition we calculated the spanning probabilities as functions of m and the percolation thresholds according to different spanning criteria. The identification of the different thresholds is proposed as an useful tool for monitoring the increasing degradation of real-world finite-size systems. Moreover, we studied the time fluctuations of the sizes of the biggest clusters of vegetated and nonvegetated cells over the entire range of mortality values. The change of sign in the skewness of the size distributions, occurring at the fragmentation threshold for the biggest vegetation cluster and at the desertification threshold for the nonvegetated cluster, offers new early warning signals for desertification. Other new and robust indicators are given by the maxima of the root-mean-square deviation of the distributions, which are attained respectively inside the fragmentation interval, for the

  19. Spatial early warning signals in a lake manipulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butitta, Vince L; Carpenter, Stephen R; Loken, Luke; Pace, Michael L; Stanley, Emily H.

    2017-01-01

    Rapid changes in state have been documented for many of Earth's ecosystems. Despite a growing toolbox of methods for detecting declining resilience or early warning indicators (EWIs) of ecosystem transitions, these methods have rarely been evaluated in whole-ecosystem trials using reference ecosystems. In this study, we experimentally tested EWIs of cyanobacteria blooms based on changes in the spatial structure of a lake. We induced a cyanobacteria bloom by adding nutrients to an experimental lake and mapped fine-resolution spatial patterning of cyanobacteria using a mobile sensor platform. Prior to the bloom, we detected theoretically predicted spatial EWIs based on variance and spatial autocorrelation, as well as a new index based on the extreme values. Changes in EWIs were not discernible in an unenriched reference lake. Despite the fluid environment of a lake where spatial heterogeneity driven by biological processes may be overwhelmed by physical mixing, spatial EWIs detected an approaching bloom suggesting the utility of spatial metrics for signaling ecological thresholds.

  20. 33 CFR 83.34 - Maneuvering and warning signals (Rule 34).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... SECURITY INLAND NAVIGATION RULES RULES Sound and Light Signals § 83.34 Maneuvering and warning signals (Rule 34). (a) Whistle signals. When power-driven vessels are in sight of one another and meeting or... propulsion”. (2) Upon hearing the one or two blast signal of the other shall, if in agreement, sound the same...

  1. The modality shift effect and the effectiveness of warning signals in different modalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodway, Paul

    2005-10-01

    Which is better, a visual or an auditory warning signal? Initial findings suggested that an auditory signal was more effective, speeding reaction to a target more than a visual warning signal, particularly at brief foreperiods [Bertelson, P., & Tisseyre, F. (1969). The time-course of preparation: confirmatory results with visual and auditory warning signals. Acta Psychologica, 30. In W.G. Koster (Ed.), Attention and Performance II (pp. 145-154); Davis, R., & Green, F. A. (1969). Intersensory differences in the effect of warning signals on reaction time. Acta Psychologica, 30. In W.G. Koster (Ed.), Attention and Performance II (pp. 155-167)]. This led to the hypothesis that an auditory signal is more alerting than a visual warning signal [Sanders, A. F. (1975). The foreperiod effect revisited. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 27, 591-598; Posner, M. I., Nissen, M. J., & Klein, R. M. (1976). Visual dominance: an information-processing account of its origins and significance. Psychological Review, 83, 157-171]. Recently [Turatto, M., Benso, F., Galfano, G., & Umilta, C. (2002). Nonspatial attentional shifts between audition and vision. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 28, 628-639] found no evidence for an auditory warning signal advantage and showed that at brief foreperiods a signal in the same modality as the target facilitated responding more than a signal in a different modality. They accounted for this result in terms of the modality shift effect, with the signal exogenously recruiting attention to its modality, and thereby facilitating responding to targets arriving in the modality to which attention had been recruited. The present study conducted six experiments to understand the cause of these conflicting findings. The results suggest that an auditory warning signal is not more effective than a visual warning signal. Previous reports of an auditory superiority appear to have been caused by using different

  2. Auditory Warnings, Signal-Referent Relations, and Natural Indicators: Re-Thinking Theory and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petocz, Agnes; Keller, Peter E.; Stevens, Catherine J.

    2008-01-01

    In auditory warning design the idea of the strength of the association between sound and referent has been pivotal. Research has proceeded via constructing classification systems of signal-referent associations and then testing predictions about ease of learning of different levels of signal-referent relation strength across and within different…

  3. Critical slowing down as an early warning signal for financial crises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.; Hommes, C.; Wang, J.

    2015-01-01

    The global impact of the recent financial crisis has once more stressed the urgency of new approaches to designing early warning signals (EWS) for financial crises. In the recent literature on constructing EWS through identifying characteristics of critical slowdown on the basis of time series obser

  4. 49 CFR 393.51 - Warning signals, air pressure and vacuum gauges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning signals, air pressure and vacuum gauges... and vacuum gauges. (a) General Rule. Every bus, truck and truck tractor, except as provided in.... (d) Vacuum brakes. A commercial motor vehicle (regardless of the date it was manufactured) having...

  5. Does chemical aposematic (warning) signaling occur between host plants and their potential parasitic plants?

    OpenAIRE

    Lev-Yadun, Simcha

    2013-01-01

    Aposematism (warning) signaling is a common defensive mechanism toward predatory or herbivorous animals, i.e., interactions between different trophic levels. I propose that it should be considered at least as a working hypothesis that chemical aposematism operates between certain host plants and their plant predators, parasitic plants, and that although they are also plants, they belong to a higher trophic level. Specific host plant genotypes emit known repelling chemical signals toward paras...

  6. Effect of wearing hearing protectors on the audibility of railway warning signals - an experimental study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arz, Jean-Pierre; Gettliffe, Jean-Pierre; Delattre, Philippe

    2017-09-04

    The effect of wearing hearing protectors on the audibility of warning signals has been evaluated for three specific railway-related jobs: track workers, train drivers and platform agents. Masked thresholds were measured in the laboratory, on railway agents having normal hearing, by using warning signals and background noises typical of each job. Out of the 36 situations tested in total, statistical analyses showed that wearing the earplugs improves the perception in 11 situations; deteriorates the perception in 10 situations and has no significant effect in 15 situations (as compared to no hearing protector). The deteriorations essentially concern the signals which have no (or not enough) energy in the low-frequency range (fsignals could be modified by adding some energy in the low-frequency range (f<1500 Hz).

  7. The effects of noise on speech and warning signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suter, Alice H.

    1989-06-01

    To assess the effects of noise on speech communication it is necessary to examine certain characteristics of the speech signal. Speech level can be measured by a variety of methods, none of which has yet been standardized, and it should be kept in mind that vocal effort increases with background noise level and with different types of activity. Noise and filtering commonly degrade the speech signal, especially as it is transmitted through communications systems. Intelligibility is also adversely affected by distance, reverberation, and monaural listening. Communication systems currently in use may cause strain and delays on the part of the listener, but there are many possibilities for improvement. Individuals who need to communicate in noise may be subject to voice disorders. Shouted speech becomes progressively less intelligible at high voice levels, but improvements can be realized when talkers use clear speech. Tolerable listening levels are lower for negative than for positive S/Ns, and comfortable listening levels should be at a S/N of at least 5 dB, and preferably above 10 dB. Popular methods to predict speech intelligibility in noise include the Articulation Index, Speech Interference Level, Speech Transmission Index, and the sound level meter's A-weighting network. This report describes these methods, discussing certain advantages and disadvantages of each, and shows their interrelations.

  8. Metamnemonic Control Over the Discriminability of Memory Evidence: A Signal Detection Analysis of Warning Effects in the Associative List Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starns, Jeffrey J.; Lane, Sean M.; Alonzo, Jill D.; Roussel, Cristine C.

    2007-01-01

    According to signal detection theory (SDT), retrieval warnings may decrease false memory in the associative list paradigm either by inducing a conservative criterion shift or by decreasing the amount of evidence that critical theme words were studied. Fitting a SDT model to 12 existing datasets revealed suggestive evidence that warnings impact…

  9. Assessing effectiveness of various auditory warning signals in maintaining drivers' attention in virtual reality-based driving environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chin-Teng; Chiu, Tien-Ting; Huang, Teng-Yi; Chao, Chih-Feng; Liang, Wen-Chieh; Hsu, Shang-Hwa; Ko, Li-Wei

    2009-06-01

    Drivers' fatigue contributes to traffic accidents, so drivers must maintain adequate alertness. The effectiveness of audio alarms in maintaining driving performance and characteristics of alarms was studied in a virtural reality-based driving environment. Response time to the car's drifting was measured under seven conditions: with no warnings and with continuous warning tones (500 Hz, 1750 Hz, and 3000 Hz), and with tone bursts at 500 Hz, 1750 Hz, and 3000 Hz. Analyses showed the audio warning signals significantly improved driving. Further, the tones' spectral characteristics significantly influenced the effectiveness of the warning.

  10. Visual Warning Signals Optimized for Human Perception: What the Eye Sees Fastest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. L. Gros

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to answer the question of how to design a visual warning signal that is most easily seen and produces the quickest reaction time. This is a classic problem of bionic optimization—if one knows the properties of the receiver one can most easily find a suitable solution. Because the peak of the spatio-temporal contrast sensitivity function of the human visual system occurs at non-zero spatial and temporal frequencies, it is likely that movement enhances the detectability of threshold visual signals. Earlier studies employing extended drifting sinewave gratings bear out this prediction. We have studied the ability of human observers to detect threshold visual signals for both moving and stationary stimuli. We used discrete, localized signals such as might be employed in aerospace or automotive warning signal displays. Moving stimuli show a superior detectability to non-moving stimuli of the same integrated energy. Moving stimuli at threshold detectability are seen faster than non-moving threshold stimuli. Under some conditions the speed advantage is over 0.25 seconds. Similar advantages have also been shown to occur for suprathreshold signals.

  11. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroo Kanamori

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τc and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τc and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  12. New early warning system for gravity-driven ruptures based on codetection of acoustic signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faillettaz, J.

    2016-12-01

    Gravity-driven rupture phenomena in natural media - e.g. landslide, rockfalls, snow or ice avalanches - represent an important class of natural hazards in mountainous regions. To protect the population against such events, a timely evacuation often constitutes the only effective way to secure the potentially endangered area. However, reliable prediction of imminence of such failure events remains challenging due to the nonlinear and complex nature of geological material failure hampered by inherent heterogeneity, unknown initial mechanical state, and complex load application (rainfall, temperature, etc.). Here, a simple method for real-time early warning that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. This new method capitalizes on codetection of elastic waves emanating from microcracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event-codetection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent codetected events (i.e., detected concurrently on more than one sensor) marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Simple numerical model based on a Fiber Bundle Model considering signal attenuation and hypothetical arrays of sensors confirms the early warning potential of codetection principles. Results suggest that although statistical properties of attenuated signal amplitude could lead to misleading results, monitoring the emergence of large events announcing impeding failure is possible even with attenuated signals depending on sensor network geometry and detection threshold. Preliminary application of the proposed method to acoustic emissions during failure of snow samples has confirmed the potential use of codetection as indicator for imminent failure at lab scale. The applicability of such simple and cheap early warning system is now investigated at a larger scale (hillslope). First results of such a pilot field experiment are presented and analysed.

  13. Does chemical aposematic (warning) signaling occur between host plants and their potential parasitic plants?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lev-Yadun, Simcha

    2013-07-01

    Aposematism (warning) signaling is a common defensive mechanism toward predatory or herbivorous animals, i.e., interactions between different trophic levels. I propose that it should be considered at least as a working hypothesis that chemical aposematism operates between certain host plants and their plant predators, parasitic plants, and that although they are also plants, they belong to a higher trophic level. Specific host plant genotypes emit known repelling chemical signals toward parasitic plants, which reduce the level of, slow the directional parasite growth (attack) toward the signaling hosts, or even cause parasitic plants to grow away from them in response to these chemicals. Chemical host aposematism toward parasitic plants may be a common but overlooked defense from parasitic plants.

  14. Explaining the evolution of warning coloration: secreted secondary defence chemicals may facilitate the evolution of visual aposematic signals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jostein Gohli

    Full Text Available Several pathways have been postulated to explain the evolution of warning coloration, which is a perplexing phenomenon. Many of these attempt to circumvent the problem of naïve predators by inferring kin selection or neophobia. Through a stochastic model, we show that a secreted secondary defence chemical can provide selective pressure, on the individual level, towards developing warning coloration. Our fundamental assumption is that increased conspicuousness will result in longer assessment periods and divergence from the predators' searching image, thus reducing the probability of a predator making mistakes. We conclude that strong olfactory signaling by means of chemical secretions can lead to the evolution of warning coloration.

  15. Advanced Geospatial Hydrodynamic Signals Analysis for Tsunami Event Detection and Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbab-Zavar, Banafshe; Sabeur, Zoheir

    2013-04-01

    Current early tsunami warning can be issued upon the detection of a seismic event which may occur at a given location offshore. This also provides an opportunity to predict the tsunami wave propagation and run-ups at potentially affected coastal zones by selecting the best matching seismic event from a database of pre-computed tsunami scenarios. Nevertheless, it remains difficult and challenging to obtain the rupture parameters of the tsunamigenic earthquakes in real time and simulate the tsunami propagation with high accuracy. In this study, we propose a supporting approach, in which the hydrodynamic signal is systematically analysed for traces of a tsunamigenic signal. The combination of relatively low amplitudes of a tsunami signal at deep waters and the frequent occurrence of background signals and noise contributes to a generally low signal to noise ratio for the tsunami signal; which in turn makes the detection of this signal difficult. In order to improve the accuracy and confidence of detection, a re-identification framework in which a tsunamigenic signal is detected via the scan of a network of hydrodynamic stations with water level sensing is performed. The aim is to attempt the re-identification of the same signatures as the tsunami wave spatially propagates through the hydrodynamic stations sensing network. The re-identification of the tsunamigenic signal is technically possible since the tsunami signal at the open ocean itself conserves its birthmarks relating it to the source event. As well as supporting the initial detection and improving the confidence of detection, a re-identified signal is indicative of the spatial range of the signal, and thereby it can be used to facilitate the identification of certain background signals such as wind waves which do not have as large a spatial reach as tsunamis. In this paper, the proposed methodology for the automatic detection of tsunamigenic signals has been achieved using open data from NOAA with a recorded

  16. Regional seismic hazard for Revithoussa, Greece: an earthquake early warning Shield and selection of alert signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Xu

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The feasibility of an earthquake early warning Shield in Greece is being explored as a European demonstration project. This will be the first early warning system in Europe. The island of Revithoussa is a liquid natural gas storage facility near Athens from which a pipeline runs to a gas distribution centre in Athens. The Shield is being centred on these facilities. The purpose here is to analyze seismicity and seismic hazard in relation to the Shield centre and the remote sensor sites in the Shield network, eventually to help characterize the hazard levels, seismic signals and ground vibration levels that might be observed or create an alert situation at a station. Thus this paper mainly gives estimation of local seismic hazard in the regional working area of Revithoussa by studying extreme peak ground acceleration (PGA and magnitudes. Within the Shield region, the most important zone to be detected is WNW from the Shield centre and is at a relatively short distance (50 km or less, the Gulf of Corinth (active normal faults region. This is the critical zone for early warning of strong ground shaking. A second key region of seismicity is at an intermediate distance (100 km or more from the centre, the Hellenic seismic zone south or southeast from Peloponnisos. A third region to be detected would be the northeastern region from the centre and is at a relatively long distance (about 150 km, Lemnos Island and neighboring region. Several parameters are estimated to characterize the seismicity and hazard. These include: the 50-year PGA with 90% probability of not being exceeded (pnbe using Theodulidis & Papazachos strong motion attenuation for Greece, PGANTP; the 50-year magnitude and also at the 90% pnbe, M50 and MP50, respectively. There are also estimates of the earthquake that is most likely to be felt at a damaging intensity level, these are the most perceptible earthquakes at intensities VI, VII and VIII with magnitudes MVI, MVII and MVIII

  17. Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer: A Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooijdonk, I. G. S.; Moene, A. F.; Scheffer, M.; Clercx, H. J. H.; van de Wiel, B. J. H.

    2017-02-01

    The evening transition is investigated in an idealized model for the nocturnal boundary layer. From earlier studies it is known that the nocturnal boundary layer may manifest itself in two distinct regimes, depending on the ambient synoptic conditions: strong-wind or overcast conditions typically lead to weakly stable, turbulent nights; clear-sky and weak-wind conditions, on the other hand, lead to very stable, weakly turbulent conditions. Previously, the dynamical behaviour near the transition between these regimes was investigated in an idealized setting, relying on Monin-Obukhov (MO) similarity to describe turbulent transport. Here, we investigate a similar set-up, using direct numerical simulation; in contrast to MO-based models, this type of simulation does not need to rely on turbulence closure assumptions. We show that previous predictions are verified, but now independent of turbulence parametrizations. Also, it appears that a regime shift to the very stable state is signaled in advance by specific changes in the dynamics of the turbulent boundary layer. Here, we show how these changes may be used to infer a quantitative estimate of the transition point from the weakly stable boundary layer to the very stable boundary layer. In addition, it is shown that the idealized, nocturnal boundary-layer system shares important similarities with generic non-linear dynamical systems that exhibit critical transitions. Therefore, the presence of other, generic early warning signals is tested as well. Indeed, indications are found that such signals are present in stably stratified turbulent flows.

  18. Implications of advanced warning messages on eliminating sun glare disturbances at signalized intersections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Li

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to sun glare disturbances, drivers encounter fatal threats on roadways, particularly at signalized intersections. Many studies have attempted to develop applicable solutions, such as avoiding sun positions, applying road geometric re-directions, and wearing anti-glare glasses. None of these strategies have fully solved the problem. As one of the “Connected Vehicle” practices proposed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, advanced warning messages (AWMs are capable of providing wireless information about traffic controls. AWM acts as a supplement to conventional signs and signals, which can be blocked by obstacles or natural disturbances, such as sun glare. The drivers' smart advisory system (DSAS can provide drivers with AWM. Using a driving simulator this research explores the effects of DSAS messages on driving behaviors under sun glare disturbance. Statistical analyses were applied to assess (1 the negative impacts of sun glare, (2 the compensation of the DSAS AWM to sun glare effects, and (3 the improvement in driving performance due to DSAS AWM. Four performance indexes were measured, including (1 half kinetic energy speed, (2 mean approach speed, (3 brake response time, and (4 braking distance. The effects of the socio-demographic factors, such as gender, age, educational background, and driving experience were also studied. The analytical results illustrate that the DSAS can compensate for reduced visibility due to sun glare and improve driving performance to a normal visual situation, particularly for left turn and through movement.

  19. Searching for early-warning signals of impending dieback and death in Mediterranean oaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colangelo, Michele; Ripullone, Francesco; Julio Camarero, Jesus; De Micco, Veronica; Gazol, Antonio; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Borghetti, Marco

    2017-04-01

    In recent decades, forest dieback episodes have been recorded worldwide affecting different tree species. In particular, several cases of widespread dieback and increased mortality rates have been described for Mediterranean oak (Quercus spp.) species. These dieback cases are revealing the high vulnerability of Mediterranean oaks, manifested as a loss in tree vigour (leaf shedding, canopy and shoot dieback), growth decline and sometimes tree death, as a consequence of temperatures rising at unprecedented rates and drying trends. However, in the wake of the so-called 'oak decline phenomenon', the attention on these species has generally been limited, perhaps because they are often regarded as well-adapted to the dry conditions typical of Mediterranean areas. Indeed, according to recent studies, the reduced size, the ability to sprout and the anisohydric behavior of Mediterranean oak species (reduced control of water loss and high stomatal conductance rates) would make them better adapted to withstand heat and drought stress then taller and non-sprouting isohydric species (e.g. conifer, with strict control of water loss by closing stomata). Here, we investigated the vulnerability of Mediterranean oaks by comparing neighboring living and recently dead trees in species with low (Q. pubescens), intermediate (Q. cerris, Q. frainetto) and high (Q. robur) sensitivity to water shortage. We analysed changes in tree vigour using tree-ring width and functional wood anatomical traits as proxies to search for early-warning signals of dieback, in connection with the main proposed dieback mechanisms (hydraulic failure and/or carbon starvation). We also modeled the probability of tree death as a function of tree size (diameter, height) by quantifying recent changes in growth and wood anatomy along tree-ring series. Contrary to the general concept that trees tend to experience increasing cavitation risk with increasing height, our studies show that smaller oaks are more prone to die

  20. High antipredatory efficiency of insular lizards: a warning signal of excessive specimen collection?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Delibes

    Full Text Available We live-captured lizards on islands in the Gulf of California and the Baja California peninsula mainland, and compared their ability to escape predation. Contrary to expectations, endemic lizard species from uninhabited islands fled from humans earlier and more efficiently than those from peninsular mainland areas. In fact, 58.2% (n=146 of the lizards we tried to capture on the various islands escaped successfully, while this percentage was only 14.4% (n=160 on the peninsular mainland. Separate evidence (e.g., proportion of regenerated tails, low human population at the collection areas, etc. challenges several potential explanations for the higher antipredatory efficiency of insular lizards (e.g., more predation pressure on islands, habituation to humans on the peninsula, etc.. Instead, we suggest that the ability of insular lizards to avoid predators may be related to harvesting by humans, perhaps due to the value of endemic species as rare taxonomic entities. If this hypothesis is correct, predation-related behavioral changes in rare species could provide early warning signals of their over-exploitation, thus encouraging the adoption of conservation measures.

  1. Fluctuations in air pollution give risk warning signals of asthma hospitalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Nan-Hung; Liao, Chung-Min

    2013-08-01

    Recent studies have implicated that air pollution has been associated with asthma exacerbations. However, the key link between specific air pollutant and the consequent impact on asthma has not been shown. The purpose of this study was to quantify the fluctuations in air pollution time-series dynamics to correlate the relationships between statistical indicators and age-specific asthma hospital admissions. An indicators-based regression model was developed to predict the time-trend of asthma hospital admissions in Taiwan in the period 1998-2010. Five major pollutants such as particulate matters with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO) were included. We used Spearman's rank correlation to detect the relationships between time-series based statistical indicators of standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, and kurtosis and monthly asthma hospitalization. We further used the indicators-guided Poisson regression model to test and predict the impact of target air pollutants on asthma incidence. Here we showed that standard deviation of PM10 data was the most correlated indicators for asthma hospitalization for all age groups, particularly for elderly. The skewness of O3 data gives the highest correlation to adult asthmatics. The proposed regression model shows a better predictability in annual asthma hospitalization trends for pediatrics. Our results suggest that a set of statistical indicators inferred from time-series information of major air pollutants can provide advance risk warning signals in complex air pollution-asthma systems and aid in asthma management that depends heavily on monitoring the dynamics of asthma incidence and environmental stimuli.

  2. Early warning signals of regime shifts from cross-scale connectivity of land-cover patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovanni Zurlini; Kenneth Bruce Jones; Kurt Hans Riitters; Bai-Lian Li; Irene Petrosillo

    2014-01-01

    Increasing external pressures from human activities and climate change can lead to desertification, affecting the livelihood of more than 25% of the world’s population. Thus, determining proximity to transition to desertification is particularly central for arid regions before they may convert into deserts, and recent research has focused on devising early warning...

  3. Hear no evil: The effect of auditory warning signals on avian innate avoidance, learned avoidance and memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma C. SIDDALL, Nicola M. MARPLES

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Many aposematic insect species advertise their toxicity to potential predators using olfactory and auditory signals, in addition to visual signals, to produce a multimodal warning display. The olfactory signals in these displays may have interesting effects, such as eliciting innate avoidance against novel colored prey, or improving learning and memory of defended prey. However, little is known about the effects of such ancillary signals when they are auditory rather than olfactory. The few studies that have investigated this question have provided conflicting results. The current study sought to clarify and extend understanding of the effects of prey auditory signals on avian predator responses. The domestic chick Gallus gallus domesticus was used as a model avian predator to examine how the defensive buzzing sound of a bumblebee Bombus terrestris affected the chick’s innate avoidance behavior, and the learning and memory of prey avoidance. The results demonstrate that the buzzing sound had no effect on the predator’s responses to unpalatable aposematically colored crumbs, suggesting that the agitated buzzing of B. terrestris may provide no additional protection from avian predators [Current Zoology 57 (2: 197–207, 2011].

  4. Early Warning Signals of Financial Crises with Multi-Scale Quantile Regressions of Log-Periodic Power Law Singularities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qun; Zhang, Qunzhi; Sornette, Didier

    2016-01-01

    We augment the existing literature using the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) structures in the log-price dynamics to diagnose financial bubbles by providing three main innovations. First, we introduce the quantile regression to the LPPLS detection problem. This allows us to disentangle (at least partially) the genuine LPPLS signal and the a priori unknown complicated residuals. Second, we propose to combine the many quantile regressions with a multi-scale analysis, which aggregates and consolidates the obtained ensembles of scenarios. Third, we define and implement the so-called DS LPPLS Confidence™ and Trust™ indicators that enrich considerably the diagnostic of bubbles. Using a detailed study of the "S&P 500 1987" bubble and presenting analyses of 16 historical bubbles, we show that the quantile regression of LPPLS signals contributes useful early warning signals. The comparison between the constructed signals and the price development in these 16 historical bubbles demonstrates their significant predictive ability around the real critical time when the burst/rally occurs.

  5. Harmful intrusion detection algorithm of optical fiber pre-warning system based on correlation of orthogonal polarization signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Fukun; Feng, Chong; Qu, Hongquan; Zheng, Tong; Wang, Chonglei

    2017-09-01

    At present, advanced researches of optical fiber intrusion measurement are based on the constant false alarm rate (CFAR) algorithm. Although these conventional methods overcome the interference of non-stationary random signals, there are still a large number of false alarms in practical applications. This is because there is no specific study on orthogonal polarization signals of false alarm and intrusion. In order to further reduce false alarms, we analyze the correlation of optical fiber signals using birefringence of single-mode fiber. This paper proposes the harmful intrusion detection algorithm based on the correlation of two orthogonal polarization signals. The proposed method uses correlation coefficient to distinguish false alarms and intrusions, which can decrease false alarms. Experiments on real data, which are collected from the practical environment, demonstrate that the difference in correlation is a robust feature. Furthermore, the results show that the proposed algorithm can reduce the false alarms and ensure the detection performance when it is used in optical fiber pre-warning system (OFPS).

  6. Information dissipation as an early-warning signal for the Lehman Brothers collapse in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quax, Rick; Kandhai, Drona; Sloot, Peter M. A.

    2013-05-01

    In financial markets, participants locally optimize their profit which can result in a globally unstable state leading to a catastrophic change. The largest crash in the past decades is the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers which was followed by a trust-based crisis between banks due to high-risk trading in complex products. We introduce information dissipation length (IDL) as a leading indicator of global instability of dynamical systems based on the transmission of Shannon information, and apply it to the time series of USD and EUR interest rate swaps (IRS). We find in both markets that the IDL steadily increases toward the bankruptcy, then peaks at the time of bankruptcy, and decreases afterwards. Previously introduced indicators such as `critical slowing down' do not provide a clear leading indicator. Our results suggest that the IDL may be used as an early-warning signal for critical transitions even in the absence of a predictive model.

  7. The Effects of Hearing Protectors on Speech Communication and the Perception of Warning Signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-06-01

    sensorineural hearing loss (S) . While the...Figure 1. Effect of earmuffs on the audibility of a signal in noise by a subject with normal hearing (N) and one with sensorineural hearing loss (S). Upper...investigated the psychological and social effects of " sudden hearing loss " by occluding the ears of normal- hearing individuals. Subjects wore earplugs

  8. Can we Detect Ecosystem Critical Transitions and Early Warning Signals of Catastrophic Shifts from Palaeo-Ecological Records?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perga, M. E.; Taranu, Z. E.; Gregory-Eaves, I.; Frossard, V.; Thomas, Z.; Legendre, P.; Anderson, N. J.; Leavitt, P.; Gell, P.

    2015-12-01

    The observation that managed ecosystems often fail to respond smoothly to changing external pressures has shed some light on their complex non-linear dynamics. The concept of critical transitions (i.e., ecosystem regime shifts), thresholds and alternative stable states has since spread to the ecological and environmental management literature. Most recently, however, reviews have raised some skepticism about whether these catastrophic transitions are the exceptions rather than the rule. Overall, a better understanding of the occurrence and processes of such critical transitions requires more empirical testing and evidence on the mechanistic links between pressures and consequent ecological change. Many of the changes observed, or modeled, by ecologists extend beyond the monitoring record. Palaeo-ecological records thus represent a unique opportunity to extend our temporal perspective to the relevancy of critical transitions. Yet, paleo-ecological records have their own biases and shortcomings, such as sediment focusing, irregular temporal integration and often studied in a semi-quantitative way. As such, palaeo-ecological time series are not strictly analogous to instrumental datasets. In this work, we aimed to test, using both modeled and actual records, how different properties that are common in palaeo-ecological records affect our ability to detect past non-linear dynamics, such as early-warning signals of catastrophic shifts.

  9. Workshop "Emerging risks and early warning systems" : deelproject 1.2 : miniconferentie over roegtijdig signalering en waarschuwingssystemen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koenderink, N.J.J.P.; Kreft, F.

    2007-01-01

    This report is the result of the workshop “Emerging risks and early warning system” held in Wageningen, the Netherlands on October the 19th 2006. The workshop is part of the project “Emerging risks in Dutch food chains”. The purpose of this project is to develop a procedure to identify potential ris

  10. Workshop "Emerging risks and early warning systems" : deelproject 1.2 : miniconferentie over roegtijdig signalering en waarschuwingssystemen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koenderink, N.J.J.P.; Kreft, F.

    2007-01-01

    This report is the result of the workshop “Emerging risks and early warning system” held in Wageningen, the Netherlands on October the 19th 2006. The workshop is part of the project “Emerging risks in Dutch food chains”. The purpose of this project is to develop a procedure to identify potential

  11. Signaled two-way avoidance learning using electrical stimulation of the inferior colliculus as negative reinforcement: effects of visual and auditory cues as warning stimuli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.C. Troncoso

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available The inferior colliculus is a primary relay for the processing of auditory information in the brainstem. The inferior colliculus is also part of the so-called brain aversion system as animals learn to switch off the electrical stimulation of this structure. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether associative learning occurs between aversion induced by electrical stimulation of the inferior colliculus and visual and auditory warning stimuli. Rats implanted with electrodes into the central nucleus of the inferior colliculus were placed inside an open-field and thresholds for the escape response to electrical stimulation of the inferior colliculus were determined. The rats were then placed inside a shuttle-box and submitted to a two-way avoidance paradigm. Electrical stimulation of the inferior colliculus at the escape threshold (98.12 ± 6.15 (A, peak-to-peak was used as negative reinforcement and light or tone as the warning stimulus. Each session consisted of 50 trials and was divided into two segments of 25 trials in order to determine the learning rate of the animals during the sessions. The rats learned to avoid the inferior colliculus stimulation when light was used as the warning stimulus (13.25 ± 0.60 s and 8.63 ± 0.93 s for latencies and 12.5 ± 2.04 and 19.62 ± 1.65 for frequencies in the first and second halves of the sessions, respectively, P0.05 in both cases. Taken together, the present results suggest that rats learn to avoid the inferior colliculus stimulation when light is used as the warning stimulus. However, this learning process does not occur when the neutral stimulus used is an acoustic one. Electrical stimulation of the inferior colliculus may disturb the signal transmission of the stimulus to be conditioned from the inferior colliculus to higher brain structures such as amygdala

  12. Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung-Seok; Carabali, Mabel; Lim, Jacqueline K; Herrera, Victor M; Park, Il-Yeon; Villar, Luis; Farlow, Andrew

    2017-07-10

    Dengue has been prevalent in Colombia with high risk of outbreaks in various locations. While the prediction of dengue epidemics will bring significant benefits to the society, accurate forecasts have been a challenge. Given competing health demands in Colombia, it is critical to consider the effective use of the limited healthcare resources by identifying high risk areas for dengue fever. The Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index was constructed based upon temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Considering the conditions necessary for vector survival and transmission behavior, elevation and population density were taken into account. An Early Warning Signal (EWS) model was developed by estimating the elasticity of the climate risk factor function to detect dengue epidemics. The climate risk factor index was further estimated at the smaller geographical unit (5 km by 5 km resolution) to identify populations at high risk. From January 2007 to December 2015, the Early Warning Signal model successfully detected 75% of the total number of outbreaks 1 ~ 5 months ahead of time, 12.5% in the same month, and missed 12.5% of all outbreaks. The climate risk factors showed that populations at high risk are concentrated in the Western part of Colombia where more suitable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes and the high population level were observed compared to the East. This study concludes that it is possible to detect dengue outbreaks ahead of time and identify populations at high risk for various disease prevention activities based upon observed climate and non-climate information. The study outcomes can be used to minimize potential societal losses by prioritizing limited healthcare services and resources, as well as by conducting vector control activities prior to experiencing epidemics.

  13. Early-Warning Signals for the onsets of Greenland Interstadials and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition

    CERN Document Server

    Rypdal, M

    2015-01-01

    The high-frequency band of the $\\delta^{18}\\mbox{O}$ variations in the North Greenland Ice Core Project displays fluctuation levels that increase as one approaches the onset of an interstadial (warm) period. For some of the events it is possible to establish statistical significance using Monte-Carlo simulations with a non-parametric null model with random phases and the same spectral density as the $\\delta^{18}\\mbox{O}$ record during the stadial periods. Similar results are found for the locally estimated Hurst exponent for the high-frequency fluctuations, and it is therefore natural to interpret these findings as so-called "critical slowing down" signatures, i.e. early-warning signs of tipping points. The observed "slowing down" is found to be similar (and perhaps even stronger) in the Younger Dryas, suggesting that there are some similarities between mechanisms of the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition and the onsets of the Greenland interstadials. It is also verified that the temperature fluctuations duri...

  14. Observation of Magnetic Signals from Earthquake Faulting Using High-resolution HTS-SQUID Magnetometer: Feasibility of Super-early Warning of Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katori, Y.; Okubo, K.; Hato, T.; Tsukamoto, A.; Tanabe, K.; Onishi, N.; Furukawa, H.; Isogami, S.; Takeuchi, N.

    2015-12-01

    Electromagnetic changes associated with earthquakes have been investigated previously. Our research group has also employed the magnetometers for seismomagnetic observations since March 2004. Our observation site happened to be situated at an epicentral distance of 26 km from the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake ofM7.2, NE Japan. In this earthquake, we have reported successful observation of "co-faulting" Earth's magnetic field changes (Okubo et al., 2011 EPSL). Magnetic fields began to change almost simultaneously with the onset of the earthquake rupture and grew before the first P wave arrival. Such magnetic signals are most probably generated by the changing stress field due to earthquake rupturing, i.e. the piezomagnetic effect. On the other hand, this observation result suggested that the geomagnetic variation signal accompanying fault movement, whose sources are the piezomagnetic effects, is very small. The observed change of geomagnetic field might be approximately less than several hundred pico-tesla. Therefore, to obtain more observation data of "co-faulting" magnetic field change, development of a higher-sensitive magnetometer system is very important. Then, our research group tried to develop the HTS-SQUID (high-temperature-superconductor based superconducting-quantum-interference-device) magnetometer systems for high-resolution observation of Earth's magnetic field. Since March 2012 we have introduced long-term precise geomagnetic observations using the HTS-SQUID magnetometer system Unit No.1 (mark I) at Iwaki observation site (IWK) in Fukushima, Japan. Additionally, since October 2014, we have also introduced the new HTS- SQUID magnetometer system Unit No.2 (mark II). The sampling interval of the magnetometers is 0.02 sec (50Hz). The system clock has been synchronized by use of GPS signals. A high-resolution accelerometer is also installed at observation point. In this study, we show the observation results of geomagnetic field changes associated

  15. A comparison of different informative vibrotactile forward collision warnings: does the warning need to be linked to the collision event?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Rob; Ho, Cristy; Spence, Charles

    2014-01-01

    Recent research demonstrates that auditory and vibrotactile forward collision warnings presenting a motion signal (e.g., looming or apparent motion across the body surface) can facilitate speeded braking reaction times (BRTs). The purpose of the present study was to expand on this work by directly comparing warning signals in which the motion conveyed was constant across all collision events with signals in which the speed of motion was dependent on the closing velocity (CV). Two experiments were conducted using a simulated car-following task and BRTs were measured. In Experiment 1, increasing intensity (looming) vibrotactile signals were presented from a single tactor attached to the driver's waist. When the increase in intensity was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster as compared to a no-warning condition, however, they were not significantly different from constant intensity and CV-independent looming warnings. In Experiment 2, a vertical array of three tactors was used to create motion either towards (upwards) or away (downwards) from the driver's head. When the warning signal presented upwards motion that was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster than all other warning types. Downwards warnings led to a significantly higher number of brake activations in false alarm situations as compared to upwards moving warnings. The effectiveness of dynamic tactile collision warnings would therefore appear to depend on both the link between the warning and collision event and on the directionality of the warning signal.

  16. A comparison of different informative vibrotactile forward collision warnings: does the warning need to be linked to the collision event?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob Gray

    Full Text Available Recent research demonstrates that auditory and vibrotactile forward collision warnings presenting a motion signal (e.g., looming or apparent motion across the body surface can facilitate speeded braking reaction times (BRTs. The purpose of the present study was to expand on this work by directly comparing warning signals in which the motion conveyed was constant across all collision events with signals in which the speed of motion was dependent on the closing velocity (CV. Two experiments were conducted using a simulated car-following task and BRTs were measured. In Experiment 1, increasing intensity (looming vibrotactile signals were presented from a single tactor attached to the driver's waist. When the increase in intensity was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster as compared to a no-warning condition, however, they were not significantly different from constant intensity and CV-independent looming warnings. In Experiment 2, a vertical array of three tactors was used to create motion either towards (upwards or away (downwards from the driver's head. When the warning signal presented upwards motion that was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster than all other warning types. Downwards warnings led to a significantly higher number of brake activations in false alarm situations as compared to upwards moving warnings. The effectiveness of dynamic tactile collision warnings would therefore appear to depend on both the link between the warning and collision event and on the directionality of the warning signal.

  17. The SuperNova Early Warning System

    OpenAIRE

    Scholberg, K.

    2008-01-01

    A core collapse in the Milky Way will produce an enormous burst of neutrinos in detectors world-wide. Such a burst has the potential to provide an early warning of a supernova's appearance. I will describe the nature of the signal, the sensitivity of current detectors, and SNEWS, the SuperNova Early Warning System, a network designed to alert astronomers as soon as possible after the detected neutrino signal.

  18. Warning systems and public warning response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sorensen, J.H.

    1993-09-01

    This background paper reviews current knowledge on warning systems and human response to warnings. It expands on an earlier paper prepared for a workshop on the Second Assessment on Natural Hazards, held in Estes Park, Colorado in July 1992. Although it has a North American perspective, many of the lessons learned are universally applicable. The paper addresses warning systems in terms of dissemination and does not cover physical science issues associated with prediction and forecast. Finally, it covers hazards with relatively short lead times -- 48 hours or less. It does not address topics such as long-term forecasts of earthquakes or volcanic eruptions or early famine warning systems.

  19. Wind gust warning verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primo, Cristina

    2016-07-01

    Operational meteorological centres around the world increasingly include warnings as one of their regular forecast products. Warnings are issued to warn the public about extreme weather situations that might occur leading to damages and losses. In forecasting these extreme events, meteorological centres help their potential users in preventing the damage or losses they might suffer. However, verifying these warnings requires specific methods. This is due not only to the fact that they happen rarely, but also because a new temporal dimension is added when defining a warning, namely the time window of the forecasted event. This paper analyses the issues that might appear when dealing with warning verification. It also proposes some new verification approaches that can be applied to wind warnings. These new techniques are later applied to a real life example, the verification of wind gust warnings at the German Meteorological Centre ("Deutscher Wetterdienst"). Finally, the results obtained from the latter are discussed.

  20. Warning Signs of Bullying

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to talk to kids about bullying. Respond to Bullying Learn how to respond to bullying . From stopping ... Text Size: A A A Warning Signs for Bullying There are many warning signs that may indicate ...

  1. Vehicle Dynamics Approach to Driver Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youssef A. Ghoneim

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a concept for enhanced active safety by introducing a driver warning system based on vehicle dynamics that predicts a potential loss of control condition prior to stability control activation. This real-time warning algorithm builds on available technologies such as the Electronic Stability Control (ESC. The driver warning system computes several indices based on yaw rate, side-slip velocity, and vehicle understeer using ESC sensor suite. An arbitrator block arbitrates between the different indices and determines the status index of the driving vehicle. The status index is compared to predetermined stability levels which correspond to high and low stability levels. If the index exceeds the high stability level, a warning signal (haptic, acoustic, or visual is issued to alert the driver of a potential loss of control and ESC activation. This alert will remain in effect until the index is less than the low stability level at which time the warning signal will be terminated. A vehicle speed advisory algorithm is integrated with the warning algorithm to provide a desired vehicle speed of a vehicle traveling on a curve. Simulation results and vehicle tests were conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the warning algorithm.

  2. Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions...

  3. Design of monitoring and early warning system for roller coaster based on acceleration signal%基于加速度信号的过山车监测预警系统设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李根; 朱玉田; 谢波

    2012-01-01

    Based on the requirements of special equipment safety and the current status of recreation facilities test system,a safety monitoring and early warning system for roller coaster is designed. The signal acquisition device of the system is set on the roller coaster. Digital signal processor( DSP) is used as the main control chip for its high calculation speed. Low-power consumption chips with 3. 3 V are used on the acquisition for their energy conservation and environment protection. High-frequency vibration acceleration and low-frequency motion acceleration signals are acquired in real time, and datas are transmitted to upper machine by WiFi. By using LabVlEW,the software of upper machine is developed. Wavelet analysis is applied to process the data. BP neural network is applied for fault diagnosis. Meanwhile, FFT analysis is used to process the acquired signal and standard signal and draw frequency spectrogram to check on the result of the fault diagnosis. If any fault is diagnosed, the system will sound the alarm and send out the early warning information to the relevant staff by GPRS. The experimental result shows that the system is quick, accurate and reliable.%鉴于国家对特种设备安全的要求和大型游乐设施测试系统的现状,设计了一种过山车监测预警系统.系统的信号采集装置安装在过山车上,采用数字信号处理器(DSP)作为主控芯片,运算速度快,可实现数据的实时采集,硬件电路多采用3.3V的低功耗芯片,节能环保.系统采集高频振动加速度和低频运动加速度信号,通过WiFi将数据传输给上位机,上位机软件使用LabVIEW开发,运用小波分析处理数据,并采用BP神经网络算法诊断故障,同时,对采集的信号和标准信号进行快速傅立叶变换(FFT)分析并作频谱图,可直观的检验诊断结果.如果诊断出故障,系统可发出警报并通过通用分组无线业务(GPRS)通知相关工作人员.实验结果表明:系统的运算速度快,诊断结果可靠.

  4. 注射用丹参(冻干)不良反应的临床特征及预警信号探讨%Exploration of the clinical characteristics of adverse reactions and warning signals of Danshen lyophilized powder injection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙世光; 范伟; 戚冬梅; 刘健; 田月洁; 谢彦军; 孙蓉

    2016-01-01

    目的 探讨注射用丹参(冻干)不良反应的临床特征及预警信号. 方法 收集山东省药品不良反应监测中心数据库2005年1月1日至2015年12月31日接收的注射用丹参(冻干)ADR报告,采用描述性统计方法分析ADR临床特征,采用比例报告比(PRR)法、报告比值比(ROR)法和贝叶斯判别可信区间递进神经网络模型(BCPNN)法对2005至2015年的ADR总体数据和每个年度的数据进行分析,挖掘ADR预警信号. 结果 纳入分析的ADR报告为887份,所涉及的887例患者中男性460例,女性427例;年龄3 d~91岁,平均(57.7 ±16.6)岁,≥45岁者占79.59%(706/877).887例患者共发生1 281例次ADR,主要累及皮肤和心脑血管系统,排序前10位者依次为皮疹、瘙痒、呼吸困难、寒战、恶心、头痛、发热、心悸、头晕和注射部位反应,共1 152例次,占89.93%.出现ADR后均停用注射用丹参(冻干),经对症治疗后557例痊愈,330例好转.应用PRR法、ROR法和BCPNN法对ADR总体数据和年度数据进行分析的结果显示,皮疹(PRR法:总体数据,2008至2015年;ROR法:总体数据,2008至2014年;BCPNN法:总体数据)、瘙痒(PRR法:总体数据,2012、2013、2015年;ROR法:总体数据,2012、2013年)、呼吸困难(PRR法:总体数据,2008至2014年;ROR法:总体数据,2008至2014年;BCPNN法:总体数据,2014年)、寒战(PRR法:总体数据,2007至2009年;ROR法:总体数据,2011至2013年;BCPNN法:总体数据,2012、2013年)可作为注射用丹参(冻干)的ADR预警信号. 结论 注射用丹参(冻干)所致ADR主要累及皮肤和心脑血管系统,皮疹、瘙痒、呼吸困难、寒战可作为注射用丹参(冻干)ADR发生的预警信号.%Objective To explore the clinical characteristics and the warning signals of Danshen lyophilized powder injection (DLPI).Methods The adverse drug reaction (ADR) reports of DLPI from the ADR Spontaneous Reporting Database of Shandong Province from January 1,2005 to December 31,2015 were

  5. Discrimination of Effects between Directional and Nondirectional Information of Auditory Warning on Driving Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuting Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the impacts of directional and nondirectional auditory warning information in a collision warning system (CWS on driving behavior. The data on driving behavior is collected through experiment, with scenarios containing unexpected hazard events that include different warning content. As drivers approached the collision event, either a CWS auditory warning was given or no warning was given for a reference group. Discriminant analysis was used to investigate the relationship between directional auditory warning information and driving behavior. In the experiment, the CWS warnings significantly reduced brake reaction time and prompted drivers to press the brake pedal more heavily, demonstrating the effectiveness of CWS warnings in alerting drivers to avoid red-light running (RLR vehicles when approaching a signalized intersection. Providing a clear warning with directional information about an urgent hazard event could give drivers adequate time to prepare for the potential collision. In terms of deceleration, a directional information warning was shown to greatly help drivers react to critical events at signalized intersections with more moderate braking. From these results, requirements can be derived for the design of effective warning strategies for critical intersections.

  6. 短时、临近、雷电和预警制作的多任务平台%Multitask function platform with the function of short-time forecasting,nowcasting,lighting forecast and warning signal

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张成军; 杜昌海; 牛建军; 范小明

    2011-01-01

    In order to improve the efficiency of meteorological weather forecasting,analysis shows similar making processes and contents of short-time forecast,nowcasting forecast,lighting forecast and warning signals.Under the conditions of limited hardware,using the idea of intensive,multi-tasking and multi-functional design,with computer languages,the municipal meteorological station was established with multitask function platform which includes function of short-time forecasting,nowcasting,lighting forecast and warning signal.The platform is assembled with four production tasks of forecast products,it can reduce the duplicated designs;three edit ways and two input ways make the operation labor-saving and simple;and two kinds of transmission improve the adaptability of the program's network environment.The practical business applications show that the platform saves time 75%~80%,comparing with manual operation,which from the beginning to the end of forecast production making.In addition,one flexible large system could be formed by small systems,data exchanges and business processes.%为提高地市级气象台制作各种预报和预警产品的效率,分析表明短时预报、临近预报、雷电预报和灾害性天气预警信号的制作过程和内容具有类同的特点.在有限硬件条件下,用集约化、多任务、多功能的设计理念,借助计算机语言,建成地市级气象台集短时预报、临近预报、雷电预报和灾害性天气预警信号制作于一身的多功能平台.该平台集合4项预报业务的制作分发任务,减少重复设计;采用3种编辑方式和2种输入方式,使操作省力而简单;同时配置2种传输方式,提高了程序的网络环境适应性.业务应用表明,该平台可以使每项预报产品从开始制作到最后发送出去比手工操作节约时间达到75%~80%;并说明,用小系统、数据交换和业务流程可组合成"大系统."

  7. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning time. Each crossing warning system shall be tested for the prescribed warning time at least once every 12 months and when the warning system...

  8. Early-warning signals for critical transitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheffer, M.; Bascompte, J.; Brock, W.A.; Brovkin, V.; Carpenter, S.R.; Dakos, V.; Held, H.; Nes, van E.H.; Rietkerk, M.; Sugihara, G.

    2009-01-01

    Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific

  9. Warning labels. A source of toxicity information for parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, B E; Klein-Schwartz, W; Oderda, G M; Lucy, J S

    1984-08-01

    The Hazardous Substances Act specifies that warning labels for household products contain specific signal words. This study was designed to determine whether this warning label format provides enough information for parents to accurately assess product toxicity. One hundred forty-two parents from two different sites (community health clinic, private pediatrician's office) were asked to rate the toxicity of four common household products (Crystal Drano, Lysol Basin/Tub and Tile Cleaner, Clorox Bleach, Tempera Poster Paint) and four imaginary products based on the warning labels found on them. Parents had a fairly accurate perception of the toxicity of products and the toxicity to be anticipated based on the warning label. There was considerable variability in response for products which were less toxic or nontoxic. Confusion was noted regarding the meaning of the term nontoxic.

  10. Human-machine-interface for an advisory collision warning system based on visual signal%基于视觉信号提示的碰撞预警系统的人机交互界面

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李霖; 朱西产; 孙东

    2015-01-01

    为了辅助驾驶员安全行驶,设计了一种基于视觉信号提示的碰撞预警系统的人机交互界面(HMI),向驾驶员提供车辆周围的危险方位和程度的信息。用STISIM软件,把视频采集到的实际交通场景,转化为虚拟场景,设计了一种固定式驾驶模拟器,在该模拟器的试验平台上,由25名驾驶员进行测试,用问卷统计判断主观感受,用STISIM软件测量碰撞次数、速度、纵向加速度、侧向位移、即碰时间(TTC)等数据,来评价该HMI的有效性和用户接受度。结果表明:参试者对该人机交互界面具有积极的主观感受,该系统工作时,驾驶员的驾驶操作更为平稳,碰撞次数有所减低。%A human-machine-interface (HMI) was designed for an advisory colision warning system based on visual signal to help drivers to drive safely by the information about the orientation and the level of danger around vehicle. A ifxed driving simulator was built. Real trafifc scenarios were colected by using video cameras and then transformed into virtual scenarios of the simulator by STISIM software. The HMI was tested and evaluated on a platform based on driving simulator by 25 drivers. During the tests, drivers’ subjective attitudes were colected by using questionnaires and objective measures including the colision number, the average speed, the longitudinal acceleration, the lateral displacement and the time-to-colision (TTC), etc. by using STISIM. The results show that this design of HMI can achieve positive driver acceptance and this advisory system can help drivers adopt safer driving behaviors and then reduce the number of colisions.

  11. Driver Adaptive Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-03-01

    corrective measures are being taken, such as: • A high steering wheel rate, indicating a correction. • A turn signal being active. • Brake being...fields include lane position, road curvature, steering angle, turn signal state, velocity, and system uncertainty. See Figure 3 for examples of these... turn signal when changing lanes. I am present in the van during the test run, sitting in the passenger seat. The touch screen that displays the RALPH

  12. Design and evaluation of multimedia security warnings for the interaction between humans and industrial robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fruth, Jana; Kraetzer, Christian; Dittmann, Jana

    2011-01-01

    In this document a multi-media security warning design approach for automated production scenarios with industrial robots is introduced. This first approach is based on and adapts design principles of common security programs and a German VDI standard for safety warnings design. We focus on direct human-to-robot interaction scenarios, e.g. the online-programming of industrial robots, because of their potential indirect safety impacts, which could be caused by malicious codes infection of a robots control computer. We designed ten different multi-media security warnings, composed of visual and acoustical information. Visual information of warnings is transported via a traffic light metaphor (symbolizing three different threat levels), different warn icons (symbolizing properties of malicious codes) and instructions icons to programmers or operators and additional textual information. With an acknowledgment button in the middle of the warning, the programmer's confirmation of the reception of the warning is verified. Additionally, three different acoustical signals also indicate the threat level of the warning. Furthermore, an evaluation is presented, which uses concepts known from usability testing (method of loud thinking, questionnaire, time measurement). The aim is to evaluate general design criteria of our developed security warnings and tendency of user perception for further advancement of our warnings design.

  13. Flash floods: forecasting and warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sene, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    ... and levees.The volume discusses the increasing use of meteorological observation and forecasting techniques to extend the lead time available for warning, combined with hydrological models for the river response...

  14. Flash floods: forecasting and warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sene, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    .... Floods of this type are often characterised by fast flowing deep water and a high debris content which - combined with the short lead time available for warnings - add to the risk to people and property...

  15. Early warning of critical transitions in biodiversity from compositional disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doncaster, C. Patrick; Alonso Chávez, Vasthi; Viguier, Clément;

    2016-01-01

    of species in the community. In a stochastic simulation, sequential correlations over time switch from positive to negative as keystones prevail over canaries, and back to positive with domination of weedy species. The model finds support in empirical tests on multi-decadal time series of fossil diatom...... the identification of early-warning signals from other metrics....

  16. Human factors research problems in electronic voice warning system design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, C. A.; Williams, D. H.

    1975-01-01

    The speech messages issued by voice warning systems must be carefully designed in accordance with general principles of human decision making processes, human speech comprehension, and the conditions in which the warnings can occur. The operator's effectiveness must not be degraded by messages that are either inappropriate or difficult to comprehend. Important experimental variables include message content, linguistic redundancy, signal/noise ratio, interference with concurrent tasks, and listener expectations generated by the pragmatic or real world context in which the messages are presented.

  17. VisionSense - An advanced lateral collision warning system

    OpenAIRE

    Dijck, T.; Heijden, van der, M.C.

    2005-01-01

    VisionSense is an advanced driver assistance system which combines a lateral collision warning system with vehicle-to-vehicle communication. This paper shows the results of user needs assessment and traffic safety modelling of VisionSense. User needs were determined by means of a Web-based survey. The results show, that VisionSense is most appreciated when it uses a light signal to warn the driver in a possibly hazardous situation on a highway. The willingness to pay is estimated at 300 Euros...

  18. EVALUATING EFFECTIVENESS OF MOBILE BROWSER SECURITY WARNINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronak Shah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This work precisely evaluates whether browser security warnings are as ineffective as proposed by popular sentiments and past writings. This research used different kinds of Android mobile browsers as well as desktop browsers to evaluate security warnings. Security experts and developers should give emphasis on making a user aware of security warnings and should not neglect aim of communicating this to users. Security experts and system architects should emphasis the goal of communicating security information to end users. In most of the browsers, security warnings are not emphasized, and browsers simply do not show warnings, or there are a number of ways to hide those warnings of malicious sites. This work precisely finds that how inconsistent browsers really are in prompting security warnings. In particular, majority of the modern mobile web browsers are vulnerable to these security threats. We find inconsistency in SSL warnings among web browsers. Based on this work, we make recommendations for warning designers and researchers.

  19. [Establishment of malaria early warning system in Jiangsu Province III effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei-Ming; Zhou, Hua-Yun; Liu, Yao-Bao; Cao, Yuan-Yuan; Cao, Jun; Gao, Qi

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination in Jiangsu Province through the operation of the national automatic early warning system of infectious diseases. The malaria early warning information was collected from the automatic early warning information subsystem in the national information system for diseases control and prevention. Malaria early warning signals were analyzed from September 1 to December 31, 2012. The statistical analysis was conducted for the completion rates of case investigation within 3 days before and after the application of malaria early warning information system. Jiangsu Province received 85 mobile phone short messages (SMS) of malaria case from early warning system from September 1 to December 31, 2012. After judgments, 23 cases were deleted including 8 repeated cases and 15 cases that were excluded through the microscopy examination and epidemiological investigation by the confirmation of county CDC. From July to December in 2012, the monthly completion rates of case investigation within 3 days were 55.56%, 78.57%, 90.00%, 100%, 100% and 100%, respectively. The completion rates of case investigation within 3 days in July, August, September and October were significantly different by chi2 test ( chi2 = 10.66, P system. The malaria warning system from the national infectious diseases can effectively improve the response to malaria cases for primary CDC. It also plays an important role for the timely confirmation and diagnosis of malaria cases.

  20. An epidemiological study of knowledge level of dongguan migrant workers regarding risk factors and early warning signals of cerebral apoplexy%东莞外来务工人员脑卒中危险因素和预警信号知识水平的流行病学调查研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王谏珠; 方浩威; 林菡

    2014-01-01

    Objective To investigate epidemiological status of knowledge level of Dongguan migrant workers regarding risk factors and early warning signals of cerebral apoplexy.Methods According to multistage random sampling principle, simple cluster sampling was applied to randomly select 10,000 migrant workers based on the quota allocation of the amount of migrant workers. Knowledge of cerebral apoplexy,risk factors, early warning signals,knowledge sources and general demographic information were investigated.ResultsCognitive status of Dongguan migrant workers regarding knowledge of cerebral apoplexy,risk factors and early warning signals was showed that: Cognitive status was the highest for the knowledge of cerebral apoplexy,and the lowest for early warning signals.The knowledge sources were mainly from relatives, friends,and TV,but the sources of newspapers and magazines,internet,school education,doctors and books were extremely deficient. ConclusionPaths for Dongguan migrant workers to acquire knowledge in risk factors and early warning signals of cerebral apoplexy are few, and related medical knowledge level is low. Therefore,a complete range of publicity should be strengthened,so as to enhance the health level of the migrant workers and alleviate their life burdens.%目的:调查东莞外来务工人员脑卒中危险因素和预警信号知识水平的流行病学状况。方法按照多阶段随机抽样原则,采用单纯整群抽样的方法,按外来务工人员数量按额分配名额随机抽取10000名外来务工人员,对脑卒中知识、危险因素、预警信号、认知知识来源与一般人口学资料进行调查。结果东莞外来务工人员对于脑卒中知识、危险因素、预警信号的认知状况,其中对于脑卒中知识的认知最高,预警信号的认知最低。东莞外来务工人员对于脑卒中知识认知的知识来源主要为亲朋与电视,在报纸杂志、网络、学校教育、医生、书籍中的知

  1. Macro finance early warning system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guihuan ZHENG; Xun ZHANG; Wei SHANG; Shanying XU

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a financial early warning informa-tion system is developed based on the multi-dimensional cli-mate approach that is featured with a multi-dimensional in-dex construction and the relevant multi-dimensional analy-sis. Requirement analysis and design issues of building an information system supporting this multi-dimensional cli-mate approach are discussed in detail. And a case using this system to study the macro financial issues is presented to illustrate how the proposed multi-dimensional approach works in the information system we design. This research is an interdisciplinary work of economic theories, macro finan-cial empirical studies, and software engineering. With ad-vanced macro financial early warning theories implemented in a web application, the Macro Financial Early Warning System (FEWS) developed in this research has been proved to be effective in a trial running in the Forecasting research institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  2. Development of Early Warning Methods for Electric Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jóhannsson, Hjörtur

    This thesis concerns the development of methods that can provide, in realtime, an early warning for an emerging blackout in electric power systems. The blackout in E-Denmark and S-Sweden on September 23, 2003 is the main motivation for the method development. The blackout was caused by occurrence...... methods, that could, in such situations, give an early warning for the emerging blackout. After investigation of data and plots taken from the time of the blackout, it was decided to focus the development on assessment of aperiodic small signal stability. In order to assess the system generators aperiodic...... small signal stability, expressions for stability boundaries were algebraically derived in the injection impedance plane. A method for detecting aperiodic small signal stability was established, which was based on one of the derived boundaries. The method carries out an element-wise assessment...

  3. Sugary Drink Warnings Hit Home with Teens

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_160860.html Sugary Drink Warnings Hit Home With Teens Fewer choose sweetened ... Health warning labels can steer teens away from sugary drinks, a new study suggests. "The average teen in ...

  4. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Storm Wallets

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is responsible for typhoon forecasts and warnings for the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. After each storm, the JTWC...

  5. 30 CFR 56.14208 - Warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning devices. 56.14208 Section 56.14208 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning devices...

  6. 30 CFR 57.14208 - Warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning devices. 57.14208 Section 57.14208... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning devices shall be used when parked mobile equipment creates a hazard to persons in other mobile...

  7. 30 CFR 57.14214 - Train warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible above the surrounding noise level shall be sounded— (a) Immediately prior to moving trains; (b) When... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Train warnings. 57.14214 Section...

  8. 30 CFR 56.14214 - Train warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible above the surrounding noise level shall be sounded— (a) Immediately prior to moving trains; (b) When trains... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Train warnings. 56.14214 Section...

  9. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    OpenAIRE

    Z. A. Thomas; Kwasniok, F.; C. A. Boulton; Cox, P.M.; Jones, R. T.; Lenton, T. M.; C. S. M. Turney

    2015-01-01

    Palaeo-records from China demonstrate that the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesized that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them. Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem δ18O records fro...

  10. Storm Warnings on Lake Balaton,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-04-06

    magnitude of this effect. Consequently, the employees of the Storm Warning Service decided in the course of the summer 1962, to set up a cup -type... anemometer on a passenger ship regularly passing between Si6fok and Balatonfired, and to take wind measurements along this route across the Lake in a...along this route. During the measurements, the reading of the anemometer was taken at intervals and noted together with the time of reading. Since the

  11. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Z. A.; Kwasniok, F.; Boulton, C. A.; Cox, P. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lenton, T. M.; Turney, C. S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Palaeo-records from China demonstrate that the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesized that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them. Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem δ18O records from Sanbao Cave and Hulu Cave, China, spanning the penultimate glacial cycle. We find that although there are increases in both autocorrelation and variance preceding some of the monsoon transitions during this period, it is only immediately prior to the abrupt monsoon shift at the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) that statistically significant increases are detected. To supplement our data analysis, we produce and analyse multiple model simulations that we derive from these data. We find hysteresis behaviour in our model simulations with transitions directly forced by solar insolation. However, signals of critical slowing down, which occur on the approach to a bifurcation, are only detectable in the model simulations when the change in system stability is sufficiently slow to be detected by the sampling resolution of the data set. This raises the possibility that the early warning "alarms" were missed in the speleothem data over the period 224-150 kyr and it was only at the monsoon termination that the change in the system stability was sufficiently slow to detect early warning signals.

  12. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) WATERFRONT FACILITIES WATERFRONT FACILITIES HANDLING LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS AND LIQUEFIED HAZARDOUS GAS Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer...

  13. 33 CFR 127.207 - Warning alarms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) WATERFRONT FACILITIES WATERFRONT FACILITIES HANDLING LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS AND LIQUEFIED HAZARDOUS GAS Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Equipment § 127.207 Warning alarms. (a) The...

  14. Communicating risk information and warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mileti, D. S.

    1990-01-01

    Major advances have occurred over the last 20 years about how to effectively communicate risk information and warnings to the public. These lessons have been hard won. Knowledge has mounted on the finding from social scientific studies of risk communication failures, successes and those which fell somewhere in between. Moreover, the last 2 decades have borne witness to the brith, cultivation, and blossoming of information sharing between those physical scientists who discover new information about risk and those communcation scientists who trace its diffusion and then measure pbulic reaction. 

  15. Effects of auditory and tactile warning on response to visual hazards under a noisy environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murata, Atsuo; Kuroda, Takashi; Karwowski, Waldemar

    2017-04-01

    A warning signal presented via a visual or an auditory cue might interfere with auditory or visual information inside and outside a vehicle. On the other hand, such interference would be certainly reduced if a tactile cue is used. Therefore, it is expected that tactile cues would be promising as warning signals, especially in a noisy environment. In order to determine the most suitable modality of cue (warning) to a visual hazard in noisy environments, auditory and tactile cues were examined in this study. The condition of stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) was set to 0ms, 500ms, and 1000ms. Two types of noises were used: white noise and noise outside a vehicle recorded in a real-world driving environment. The noise level LAeq (equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure level) inside the experimental chamber of each type of noise was adjusted to approximately 60 dB (A), 70 dB (A), and 80 dB (A). As a result, it was verified that tactile warning was more effective than auditory warning. When the noise outside a vehicle from a real-driving environment was used as the noise inside the experimental chamber, the reaction time to the auditory warning was not affected by the noise level.

  16. ANALYSIS OF FORECASTING METHODS FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF EARLY WARNING CONCEPT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Early warning system (EWS based on a reliable forecasting process has become a critical component of the management of large complex industrial projects in the globalized transnational environment. The purpose of this research is to critically analyze the forecasting methods from the point of view of early warning, choosing those useful for the construction of EWS. This research addresses complementary techniques, using Bayesian Networks, which addresses both uncertainties and causality in project planning and execution, with the goal of generating early warning signals for project managers. Even though Bayesian networks have been widely used in a range of decision-support applications, their application as early warning systems for project management is still new.

  17. Multi-Use Seismic Stations for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, T.; Townsend, B.; Moores, A. O.; Bainbridge, G. S.; Easton, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning network performance improves with the number and density of sensing stations, quality of the sites, quality of strong-motion instrumentation, degree of coverage near at-risk populated areas and potential fault zones, and minimizing latency of signal processing and transmission. Seismic research tends to emphasize competing requirements: low-noise sites, high-performance broadband seismic instrumentation, and high-quality signal processing without regard for latency. Recent advances in instrumentation and processing techniques have made feasible the concept of a multi-use seismic station in which strong-motion and weak-motion seismometry are both cost-effectively served without compromising the performance demands of either. We present a concept for a multi-use seismic station that cost-effectively meets the needs of both earthquake early warning and high-quality seismic research. One significant enabler is a 6-channel dual-sensor instrument that combines a 120s broadband seismometer and a class A accelerometer in a single ultra-compact sonde suitable for direct burial. Combining two sensors into one effectively adds broadband capability to a station without increasing the already optimized site footprint, preparation and management costs associated with shallow direct-burial installations. The combined sensors also complement each other, simplifying and speeding installation (for example, the accelerometer provides real-time tilt readings useful to leveling the seismometer). Integration simplifies alignment to North, as there is only one instrument to orient. A dual-use 6-channel digitizer simultaneously provides two sets of independently processed streams from both sensors, one set optimized for low-latency earthquake warning, and the other set for high quality seismic research purposes. Such a dual-use seismic station can serve both seismic research and civil warning infrastructure objectives without adding significantly to the cost of a

  18. 30 CFR 75.208 - Warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning devices. 75.208 Section 75.208 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH MANDATORY SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Roof Support § 75.208 Warning devices. Except during...

  19. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... (2) Facing outboard towards the water so that the sign may be seen from the water. (b) Except as provided in paragraph (e) of this section, each warning sign must have the following words: (1) Warning. (2) Dangerous Cargo. (3) No Visitors. (4) No Smoking. (5) No Open Lights. (c) Each letter in the words on...

  20. An Infrastructure for a Traffic Warning System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønsted, Jeppe; Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2005-01-01

    The LIWAS Trafc Warning System aims at providingearly warning to vehicles about road conditions, such aswhether the road is slippery. The LIWAS system is currentlybeing developed and consists of two main parts:sensors for determining the state of the road and a communicationinfrastructure support...

  1. Urban Flood Warning Systems using Radar Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, N.; Bedient, P. B.

    2013-12-01

    There have been an increasing number of urban areas that rely on weather radars to provide accurate precipitation information for flood warning purposes. As non-structural tools, radar-based flood warning systems can provide accurate and timely warnings to the public and private entities in urban areas that are prone to flash floods. The wider spatial and temporal coverage from radar increases flood warning lead-time when compared to rain and stream gages alone. The Third Generation Rice and Texas Medical Center (TMC) Flood Alert System (FAS3) has been delivering warning information with 2 to 3 hours of lead time and a R2 value of 93% to facility personnel in a readily understood format for more than 50 events in the past 15 years. The current FAS utilizes NEXRAD Level II radar rainfall data coupled with a real-time hydrologic model (RTHEC-1) to deliver warning information. The system has a user-friendly dashboard to provide rainfall maps, Google Maps based inundation maps, hydrologic predictions, and real-time monitoring at the bayou. This paper will evaluate its reliable performance during the recent events occurring in 2012 and 2013 and the development of a similar radar-based flood warning system for the City of Sugar Land, Texas. Having a significant role in the communication of flood information, FAS marks an important step towards the establishment of an operational and reliable flood warning system for flood-prone urban areas.

  2. An Infrastructure for a Traffic Warning System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønsted, Jeppe; Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2005-01-01

    The LIWAS Trafc Warning System aims at providingearly warning to vehicles about road conditions, such aswhether the road is slippery. The LIWAS system is currentlybeing developed and consists of two main parts:sensors for determining the state of the road and a communicationinfrastructure support...

  3. 33 CFR 118.130 - Fog signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fog signals. 118.130 Section 118... LIGHTING AND OTHER SIGNALS § 118.130 Fog signals. On waterways where visibility is frequently reduced due... more fog signals to warn the navigator of the presence of the bridge. The fog signals must conform to...

  4. Behavior of Early Warnings near the Critical Temperature in the Two-Dimensional Ising Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Irving O.; Landa, Emmanuel; Angeles, Carlos Calderon; Toledo, Juan C.; Rivera, Ana Leonor; Temis, Joel Mendoza; Frank, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    Among the properties that are common to complex systems, the presence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of the system is one of the most important. Recently, there has been interest in the universalities that occur in the behavior of systems near critical points. These universal properties make it possible to estimate how far a system is from a critical threshold. Several early-warning signals have been reported in time series representing systems near catastrophic shifts. The proper understanding of these early-warnings may allow the prediction and perhaps control of these dramatic shifts in a wide variety of systems. In this paper we analyze this universal behavior for a system that is a paradigm of phase transitions, the Ising model. We study the behavior of the early-warning signals and the way the temporal correlations of the system increase when the system is near the critical point. PMID:26103513

  5. Behavior of Early Warnings near the Critical Temperature in the Two-Dimensional Ising Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irving O Morales

    Full Text Available Among the properties that are common to complex systems, the presence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of the system is one of the most important. Recently, there has been interest in the universalities that occur in the behavior of systems near critical points. These universal properties make it possible to estimate how far a system is from a critical threshold. Several early-warning signals have been reported in time series representing systems near catastrophic shifts. The proper understanding of these early-warnings may allow the prediction and perhaps control of these dramatic shifts in a wide variety of systems. In this paper we analyze this universal behavior for a system that is a paradigm of phase transitions, the Ising model. We study the behavior of the early-warning signals and the way the temporal correlations of the system increase when the system is near the critical point.

  6. Building an Early Warning System for Crude Oil Price Using Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wonho Song

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a crisis index for the oil price shock is defined and a neural network model is specified for the prediction of the crisis index. This paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, we build an early warning system for crude oil price. Although the oil price became one of the most important price index recently, no research efforts have been made to build an early warning system for crude oil price. Second, the neural network (NN model is used to construct the early warning sysIn this paper, a crisis index for the oil price shock is defined and a neural network model is specified for the prediction of the crisis index. This paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, we build an early warning system for crude oil price. Although the oil price became one of the most important price index recently, no research efforts have been made to build an early warning system for crude oil price. Second, the neural network (NN model is used to construct the early warning system. Most early warning systems are built based on the signaling approach. In this paper, we show that the neural network models are more flexible and have greater potential as EWS than the signaling approach. Third, we allow the multi-level crisis index. Previous models allowed only a zero/one crisis index whereas our model permits as many levels as possible. With this new model, we try to answer whether the oil price collapse following the historical peak in 2008 was predictable. We compare the results from the NN model with those from the ordered probit (OP model, and show that the oil price crisis and the following crash were predictable by the NN model, but not by the OP model.

  7. What Are the Warning Signs of Stroke?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Cardiovascular Conditions What Are the Warning Signs of Stroke? Brain tissue affected by blockage Stroke is the fifth leading cause of death in ... over 55 years old have more chance of stroke, and the risk gets greater as you get ...

  8. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2008)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  9. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2010)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  10. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2011)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  11. National Weather Service County Warning Area Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains polygons corresponding to the County Warning Areas (CWAs) of each Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in the National Weather Service (NWS).

  12. FDA Warns About Stem Cell Claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home For Consumers Consumer Updates FDA Warns About Stem Cell Claims Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing ... blood-forming system. back to top Regulation of Stem Cells FDA regulates stem cells in the U.S. to ...

  13. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  14. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2009)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  15. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2007)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  16. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2006)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  17. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  18. Development of Flood Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joy J. Labo,

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Community-based early warning systems (CBEWS is a “people-centered” system and empowers individuals and communities threatened by hazards to act on sufficient time and in an appropriate manner to reduce the possibility of personal injury, loss of life, damage to property, environment and loss of livelihood. These things lead to the development of the device necessary for the protection of the community against flood hazards as it allows people to get prepared with sufficient time. An alarm system was developed to monitor the water level on Salog River that overflows during heavy rains. The water level sensors were submerged in a canal of water to test the functionality of the device before its installation. Computer programs were created to enhance the monitoring of water level: the River Monitor Software and the Water Level Monitor. The LED arrays emit light according to water level; green for low, orange for medium, and red for high. A siren also alarms with different intervals (30 seconds for low, 15 seconds for medium, and a continuous alarm for high. Automatic emergency lighting was integrated in the design and lights up during power outages powered by rechargeable sealed battery that charges when ac power is supplied to the device. Levels were established based on available data; low water level means awareness; medium water level means preparedness and high water level means immediate response is necessary.

  19. Internet sex and dating sites need warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenore, Peter L

    2006-01-01

    For this issue's Commentary column, Peter L. Tenore, MD, discusses risk for infection with HIV or acquisition of sexually transmitted diseases associated with the use of the Internet to find sexual partners and presents results of an informal survey to determine whether Internet sites used to find sexual partners provide warnings about sexually transmitted diseases and HIV. He also calls for the operators of such sites to add warnings to their sites.

  20. A Practitioner's Guide to Implementing Early Warning Systems. REL 2015-056

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazelle, Sarah; Nagel, Aisling

    2015-01-01

    To stem the tide of students dropping out, many schools and districts are turning to early warning systems (EWS) that signal whether a student is at risk of not graduating from high school. While some research exists about establishing these systems, there is little information about the actual implementation strategies that are being used across…

  1. Ratings checklist for warnings: a prototype tool to aid experts in the adequacy evaluation of proposed or existing warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenorovitz, David R; Leonard, S David; Karnes, Edward W

    2012-01-01

    In the field of forensic human factors, experts are often called upon to assess and evaluate the adequacy of new or existing products' warnings or warnings systems. The usual goal of this evaluation is to arrive at a simple binary decision regarding the warning in question (i.e., does it "pass/fail", or is it "adequate/inadequate"). However, such a warning assessment process may in fact be quite complex and multidimensional in its execution. The existing warnings research literature has identified a fairly large number of warnings features or factors likely to have an impact on a given warning's effectiveness or adequacy. The tool addressed in this article is intended for use by a warnings expert (as opposed to one less knowledgeable and informed about complex warnings issues), and can serve as a reminder checklist to help ensure that the expert has taken into consideration the most relevant features or factors during such a warnings adequacy assessment.

  2. Effect of directional speech warnings on road hazard detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano, Jesús; Di Stasi, Leandro L; Megías, Alberto; Catena, Andrés

    2011-12-01

    In the last 2 decades, cognitive science and the transportation psychology field have dedicated a lot of effort to designing advanced driver support systems. Verbal warning systems are increasingly being implemented in modern automobiles in an effort to increase road safety. The study presented here investigated the impact of directional speech alert messages on the participants' speed to judge whether or not naturalistic road scenes depicted a situation of impending danger. Thirty-eight volunteers performed a computer-based key-press reaction time task. Findings indicated that semantic content of verbal warning signals can be used for increasing driving safety and improving hazard detection. Furthermore, the classical result regarding signal accuracy is confirmed: directional informative speech messages lead to faster hazard detection compared to drivers who received a high rate of false alarms. Notwithstanding some study limitations (lack of driver experience and low ecological validity), this evidence could provide important information for the specification of future Human-Machine-interaction (HMI) design guidelines.

  3. Instructors' Use of Trigger Warnings and Behavior Warnings in Abnormal Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boysen, Guy A.; Wells, Anna Mae; Dawson, Kaylee J.

    2016-01-01

    College students have been increasingly demanding warnings and accommodations in relation to course topics they believe will elicit strong, negative emotions. These "trigger warnings" are highly relevant to Abnormal Psychology because of the sensitive topics covered in the course (e.g., suicide, trauma, sex). A survey of Abnormal…

  4. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

  5. Tsunami early warning and decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Steinmetz

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS. The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010. While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen

  6. UncertiantyQuantificationinTsunamiEarlyWarningCalculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anunziato, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    The objective of the Tsunami calculations is the estimation of the impact of waves caused by large seismic events on the coasts and the determination of potential inundation areas. In the case of Early Warning Systems, i.e. systems that should allow to anticipate the possible effects and give the possibility to react consequently (i.e. issue evacuation of areas at risk), this must be done in very short time (minutes) to be effective. In reality, the above estimation includes several uncertainty factors which make the prediction extremely difficult. The quality of the very first estimations of the seismic parameters is not very precise: the uncertainty in the determination of the seismic components (location, magnitude and depth) decreases with time because as time passes it is possible to use more and more seismic signals and the event characterization becomes more precise. On the other hand other parameters that are necessary to establish for the performance of a calculation (i.e. fault mechanism) are difficult to estimate accurately also after hours (and in some cases remain unknown) and therefore this uncertainty remains in the estimated impact evaluations; when a quick tsunami calculation is necessary (early warning systems) the possibility to include any possible future variation of the conditions to establish the "worst case scenario" is particularly important. The consequence is that the number of uncertain parameters is so large that it is not easy to assess the relative importance of each of them and their effect on the predicted results. In general the complexity of system computer codes is generated by the multitude of different models which are assembled into a single program to give the global response for a particular phenomenon. Each of these model has associated a determined uncertainty coming from the application of that model to single cases and/or separated effect test cases. The difficulty in the prediction of a Tsunami calculation response is

  7. A survey of early warning technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, G.D.; Arlowe, H.D.; Williams, J.D.

    1995-07-01

    This paper presents a survey of technologies useful in providing early warning in physical security systems. Early warning is important in virtually all types of security systems whether they are used for temporary (tactical, portable, or semi-permanent) applications, border warning, fixed-site detection, or standoff surveillance detection. With the exception of the standoff surveillance detection systems, all systems discussed in this paper usually involve a moving target. The fact that a person(s) to be detected in a standoff surveillance scenario is not moving presents challenging problems and requires different applications of technology. The technologies commonly used to detect moving targets and some suggestions for detection of stationary targets are addressed in this paper.

  8. Automatic earthquake confirmation for early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuyuk, H. S.; Colombelli, S.; Zollo, A.; Allen, R. M.; Erdik, M. O.

    2015-07-01

    Earthquake early warning studies are shifting real-time seismology in earthquake science. They provide methods to rapidly assess earthquakes to predict damaging ground shaking. Preventing false alarms from these systems is key. Here we developed a simple, robust algorithm, Authorizing GRound shaking for Earthquake Early warning Systems (AGREEs), to reduce falsely issued alarms. This is a network threshold-based algorithm, which differs from existing approaches based on apparent velocity of P and S waves. AGREEs is designed to function as an external module to support existing earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) and filters out the false events, by evaluating actual shaking near the epicenter. Our retrospective analyses of the 2009 L'Aquila and 2012 Emilia earthquakes show that AGREEs could help an EEWS by confirming the epicentral intensity. Furthermore, AGREEs is able to effectively identify three false events due to a storm, a teleseismic earthquake, and broken sensors in Irpinia Seismic Network, Italy.

  9. Natural risk warning: comparison of two methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cavallo

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The Italian network of "Centri Funzionali" is now reaching operational status both in hydro-meteorological risk forecasting and support to the decision making of administrations that issue natural risk warning. Each centre operates for its district of influence. In order to have a nationwide common standard the National Civil Protection Department proposed a quantitative warning methodology based on the definition of rainfall thresholds correlated to historical damages. In the first phase the thresholds have been defined using two studies that cover all Italy: the VAPI (statistics of extreme rainfall and discharges, see reference and the AVI (database of historical flood and landslide events and reported damages, see reference. This work presents one year back analysis that compares the new methodology and the one that has been usied since 2000 by the Liguria Region Meteorological Centre with regard to flood warning, pinpointing the performance differences in terms of false and missed alerts.

  10. Interactive early warning technique based on SVDD

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    After reviewing current researches on early warning,it is found that"bad" data of some systems is not easy to obtain,which makes methods proposed by these researches unsuitable for monitored systems.An interactive early warning technique based on SVDD(support vector data description)is proposed to adopt"good" data as samples to overcome the difficulty in obtaining the"bad"data.The process consists of two parts:(1)A hypersphere is fitted on"good"data using SVDD.If the data object are outside the hypersphere,it would be taken as"suspicious";(2)A group of experts would decide whether the suspicious data is"bad"or"good",early warning messages would be issued according to the decisions.And the detailed process of implementation is proposed.At last,an experiment based on data of a macroeconomic system is conducted to verify the proposed technique.

  11. The Effect of Sonic Booms on Earthquake Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurman, Gilead; Haering, Edward A, Jr.; Price, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Several aerospace companies are designing quiet supersonic business jets for service over the United States. These aircraft have the potential to increase the occurrence of mild sonic booms across the country. This leads to interest among earthquake warning (EQW) developers and the general seismological community in characterizing the effect of sonic booms on seismic sensors in the field, their potential impact on EQW systems, and means of discriminating their signatures from those of earthquakes. The SonicBREWS project (Sonic Boom Resistant Earthquake Warning Systems) is a collaborative effort between Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. (SWS) and NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. This project aims to evaluate the effects of sonic booms on EQW sensors. The study consists of exposing high-sample-rate (1000 sps) triaxial accelerometers to sonic booms with overpressures ranging from 10 to 600 Pa in the free field and the built environment. The accelerometers record the coupling of the sonic boom to the ground and surrounding structures, while microphones record the acoustic wave above ground near the sensor. Sonic booms are broadband signals with more high-frequency content than earthquakes. Even a 1000 sps accelerometer will produce a significantly aliased record. Thus the observed peak ground velocity is strongly dependent on the sampling rate, and increases as the sampling rate is reduced. At 1000 sps we observe ground velocities that exceed those of P-waves from ML 3 earthquakes at local distances, suggesting that sonic booms are not negligible for EQW applications. We present the results of several experiments conducted under SonicBREWS showing the effects of typical-case low amplitude sonic booms and worst-case high amplitude booms. We show the effects of various sensor placements and sensor array geometries. Finally, we suggest possible avenues for discriminating sonic booms from earthquakes for the purposes of EQW.

  12. Real-time lane departure warning system based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution and risk evaluation model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张伟伟; 宋晓琳; 张桂香

    2014-01-01

    A technology for unintended lane departure warning was proposed. As crucial information, lane boundaries were detected based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution in search bars of given number and then each search bar was tracked using Kalman filter between frames. The lane detection performance was evaluated and demonstrated in ways of receiver operating characteristic, dice similarity coefficient and real-time performance. For lane departure detection, a lane departure risk evaluation model based on lasting time and frequency was effectively executed on the ARM-based platform. Experimental results indicate that the algorithm generates satisfactory lane detection results under different traffic and lighting conditions, and the proposed warning mechanism sends effective warning signals, avoiding most false warning.

  13. A new French flash flood warning service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Saint-Aubin Céline

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The French State services in charge of flood forecasting supervise about 22,000 km among the 120,000 km of the French rivers within a warning procedure called Vigilance Crues (http://www.vigicrues.gouv.fr. Some recent dramatic flood events on small watershed not covered by Vigilance Crues highlight the need for a new warning procedure to anticipate violent flash floods that regularly affect rapid river-basins. Thus the concept emerged of an automatic warning service specifically dedicated to local crisis managers. This service will be less elaborated than Vigilance Crues, probably with false alarms and missed events sometimes, but it will deliver a first information. The generation of the warning is based on a simple rainfall-runoff hydrological model developed by Irstea on all French rivers, fed with radar-gauge rainfall grids provided by Meteo-France. Every fifteen minutes, the hydrological model estimates the discharges on the rivers eligible to the service and determine if certain thresholds corresponding to a high or very high flood are likely to be exceeded. The last step of the real-time system is to determine which municipalities are concerned with flood risk and send them an automatic warning by voice call, optionally by sms or email. A specific web interface is available for users to monitor the evolution of the flood risk on maps that are updated every 15 minutes. This new flash flood warning service will be operational early 2017 as a free service for about 8,000 French municipalities.

  14. Recasting the warning-response problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, C.O.; Otto, F.; Brante, J.;

    2010-01-01

    , accepted, prioritized and responded to by policy-makers. This has led to a simplistic understanding of how communicative, cognitive and political processes involving a range of actors can influence both the perception as well as the response to warnings. The paper also criticizes that many normative...... judgments about the desirability of preventive action are suffering from hindsight bias and insufficient attention to balancing problems related to risk substitution, opportunity costs and moral hazard. In response to these deficits, the paper puts forward a modified model of warning as a persuasive process...

  15. Streamlining Tsunami Messages (e.g., Warnings) of the US National Tsunami Warning Center, Palmer, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, C. E.; Sorensen, J. H.; Vogt Sorensen, B.; Whitmore, P.; Johnston, D. M.

    2016-12-01

    Spurred in part by world-wide interest in improving warning messaging for and response to tsunamis in the wake of several catastrophic tsunamis since 2004 and growing interest at the US National Weather Service (NWS) to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program, the NWS Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii have made great progress toward enhancing tsunami messages. These include numerous products, among them being Tsunami Warnings, Tsunami Advisories and Tsunami Watches. Beginning in 2010 we have worked with US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Warning Coordination and Mitigation and Education Subcommittee members; Tsunami Program administrators; and NWS Weather Forecast Officers to conduct a series of focus group meetings with stakeholders in coastal areas of Alaska, American Samoa, California, Hawaii, North Carolina, Oregon, US Virgin Islands and Washington to understand end-user perceptions of existing messages and their existing needs in message products. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a Tsunami Warning Message Metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order, Formatting, and Receiver Characteristics. A sample message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met, whether the message is a full length or short message. Incrementally, this work contributed to revisions in the format, content and style of message products issued by the National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC). Since that time, interest in short warning messages has continued to increase and in May 2016 the NTWC began efforts to revise message products to take advantage of recent NWS policy changes allowing use of mixed-case text

  16. Too Many Americans Have High Blood Pressure, Doctors Warn

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... news/fullstory_163468.html Too Many Americans Have High Blood Pressure, Doctors Warn With February designated National Heart Month, ... physicians warns that too many Americans struggle with high blood pressure. High blood pressure is a major risk factor ...

  17. Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2013-01-01

    The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the probabi

  18. Researchers warn of neglect to basic science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Michael

    2010-03-01

    Russia is losing its standing as a scientific powerhouse and its science is in a state of decline, according to a new report by the information-services provider Thomson Reuters. Entitled "The New Geography of Science: Research and Collaboration in Russia", the report warns that the country's research base "has a problem, and it shows little sign of a solution".

  19. Crisis management and warning procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valérie November

    2009-03-01

    territoriale du risque s’avère nécessaire.Based on two flood events that recently affected new housing areas in very different political, organisational and hydrological contexts, this article examines the practices of actors involved in emergency and crisis situations in Switzerland. In both cases, the actors are identified – through their role and their position in the various procedures related to crisis management – and an inventory is made of the documents used. The study examines how the flood events were managed, identifies the organisational changes that followed the crises, and determines how the risk was conceived and to what extent it was formalised by the different actors both before and after the floods. Finally new forecasting and warning procedures that were set up following the events are described. The study shows that floods have a decisive impact on the production of knowledge, but that this phenomenon varies according to the actors. Events such as floods also sometimes reveal the existence of "latent" knowledge, or knowledge that is available but has not yet been integrated into institutional procedures. In terms of both forecasting and crisis management, these events also provide the opportunity to test information channels and to identify and correct any problems relating to organisation, cooperation or the reliability of means of communication. Among other things, the risks and crises related to flooding modify the dynamics and policies of the local area as a result of readjustments in the networks of actors. The introduction of emergency and crisis management measures appears more effective, however, than the reorganisation of planning and development procedures, a process which generally takes a lot longer. Nevertheless, since the recollection of events tends to fade with time, it is important that risks find a more concrete form of spatial expression on the landscape.

  20. Tsunami Warning Services for the Caribbean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmore, P. M.; Ferris, J. C.; Weinstein, S. A.

    2007-05-01

    Tsunami warning and watch services are currently provided to the Caribbean region through a collaborative effort between the two NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs): the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii, and the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska. The WCATWC, in coordination with the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN), provides fast-response warning services to the U.S. territories of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PR/VI). The PTWC provides regional watch services to other countries throughout and surrounding the Caribbean Sea as part of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions. This collaboration is analogous to the TWC's responsibilities in the Pacific basin: the WCATWC provides fast-response warning services for the U.S. west coast states, Alaska, and British Columbia in Canada, while the PTWC provides regional services for countries throughout and surrounding the Pacific Ocean (as well as a fast-response service for the U.S. State of Hawaii). Caribbean seismic data are transmitted to the TWCs through several means. The PRSN directly exports data to the WCATWC, providing the Center sufficient seismic data for the PR/VI region. Additionally, the PRSN provides the TWCs with data gathered from other Caribbean nations. Using modern communication capabilities, the seismic data can be processed at the TWCs at the same time it is processed locally. Another source of high- quality seismic data is the new USGS nine-station array that circles the region. The Global Seismic Network maintains several stations in Caribbean, Central American, and South American nations which are available in real-time to the TWCs. Unfortunately, sea level data coverage is sporadic in the region. The PR/VI has a relatively dense array of coastal tide gages, but coastal tide gage coverage is very sparse for the rest of the Caribbean basin. Three deep-ocean pressure

  1. Electrical Distribution System (EDS) and Caution and Warning System (CWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcclung, T.

    1975-01-01

    An astronaut caution and warning system is described which monitors various life support system parameters and detects out-of-range parameter conditions. The warning system generates a warning tone and displays the malfunction condition to the astronaut along with the proper corrective procedures required.

  2. Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cova, Thomas J; Dennison, Philip E; Li, Dapeng; Drews, Frank A; Siebeneck, Laura K; Lindell, Michael K

    2016-07-13

    Determining the most effective public warnings to issue during a hazardous environmental event is a complex problem. Three primary questions need to be answered: Who should take protective action? What is the best action? and When should this action be initiated? Warning triggers provide a proactive means for emergency managers to simultaneously answer these questions by recommending that a target group take a specified protective action if a preset environmental trigger condition occurs (e.g., warn a community to evacuate if a wildfire crosses a proximal ridgeline). Triggers are used to warn the public across a wide variety of environmental hazards, and an improved understanding of their nature and role promises to: (1) advance protective action theory by unifying the natural, built, and social themes in hazards research into one framework, (2) reveal important information about emergency managers' risk perception, situational awareness, and threat assessment regarding threat behavior and public response, and (3) advance spatiotemporal models for representing the geography and timing of disaster warning and response (i.e., a coupled natural-built-social system). We provide an overview and research agenda designed to advance our understanding and modeling of warning triggers.

  3. Submarine Cables for Ocean/Climate Monitoring and Disaster Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bueti, Cristina; Barnes, Chris; Meldrum, David

    2013-04-01

    A joint initiative between International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO is examining novel uses for submarine telecommunication cables. The initiative addresses two main issues: the need for sustained climate-quality data from the sparsely observed deep oceans, and the desire to increase the reliability and integrity of the global tsunami warning networks. In the latter case, a significant proportion of the network suffers from failure and vandalism of the sea-surface telemetry buoys that relay the tsunami signals from the sea-bed sensor package: incorporating the sensors within a submarine cable repeater is an obvious way of increasing system reliability. At the present time, plans are well advanced to launch a pilot project with the active involvement of cable industry players.

  4. Non-smoking male adolescents' reactions to cigarette warnings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica K Pepper

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA is working to introduce new graphic warning labels for cigarette packages, the first change in cigarette warnings in more than 25 years. We sought to examine whether warnings discouraged participants from wanting to smoke and altered perceived likelihood of harms among adolescent males and whether these warning effects varied by age. METHODS: A national sample of 386 non-smoking American males ages 11-17 participated in an online experiment during fall 2010. We randomly assigned participants to view warnings using a 2 × 2 between-subjects design. The warnings described a harm of smoking (addiction or lung cancer using text only or text plus an image used on European cigarette package warnings. Analyses tested whether age moderated the warnings' impact on risk perceptions and smoking motivations. RESULTS: The warnings discouraged most adolescents from wanting to smoke, but lung cancer warnings discouraged them more than addiction warnings did (60% vs. 34% were "very much" discouraged, p<.001. Including an image had no effect on discouragement. The warnings affected several beliefs about the harms from smoking, and age moderated these effects. Adolescents said addiction was easier to imagine and more likely to happen to them than lung cancer. They also believed that their true likelihood of experiencing any harm was lower than what an expert would say. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that warnings focusing on lung cancer, rather than addiction, are more likely to discourage wanting to smoke among adolescent males and enhance their ability to imagine the harmful consequences of smoking. Including images on warnings had little effect on non-smoking male adolescents' discouragement or beliefs, though additional research on the effects of pictorial warnings for this at-risk population is needed as the FDA moves forward with developing new graphic labels.

  5. LIVE DEMONSTRATION OF DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.; Wächter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of earthquakes, for the monitoring of sea level, ocean floor events, and ground displacements. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems. The introductory part of the demonstration briefly explains the DEWS project, the CCUI in conjunction with operators’ workflow, the system architecture, details of information logistics and the virtual scenario of live demonstration. The live demonstration exhibits the CCUI on screen and the service

  6. Urban flood risk warning under rapid urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yangbo; Zhou, Haolan; Zhang, Hui; Du, Guoming; Zhou, Jinhui

    2015-05-01

    In the past decades, China has observed rapid urbanization, the nation's urban population reached 50% in 2000, and is still in steady increase. Rapid urbanization in China has an adverse impact on urban hydrological processes, particularly in increasing the urban flood risks and causing serious urban flooding losses. Urban flooding also increases health risks such as causing epidemic disease break out, polluting drinking water and damaging the living environment. In the highly urbanized area, non-engineering measurement is the main way for managing urban flood risk, such as flood risk warning. There is no mature method and pilot study for urban flood risk warning, the purpose of this study is to propose the urban flood risk warning method for the rapidly urbanized Chinese cities. This paper first presented an urban flood forecasting model, which produces urban flood inundation index for urban flood risk warning. The model has 5 modules. The drainage system and grid dividing module divides the whole city terrain into drainage systems according to its first-order river system, and delineates the drainage system into grids based on the spatial structure with irregular gridding technique; the precipitation assimilation module assimilates precipitation for every grids which is used as the model input, which could either be the radar based precipitation estimation or interpolated one from rain gauges; runoff production module classifies the surface into pervious and impervious surface, and employs different methods to calculate the runoff respectively; surface runoff routing module routes the surface runoff and determines the inundation index. The routing on surface grid is calculated according to the two dimensional shallow water unsteady flow algorithm, the routing on land channel and special channel is calculated according to the one dimensional unsteady flow algorithm. This paper then proposed the urban flood risk warning method that is called DPSIR model based

  7. The vulnerability of laser warning systems against guided weapons based on low power lasers

    OpenAIRE

    Al-Jaberi, Mubarak

    2006-01-01

    Laser assisted weapons, such as laser guided bombs, laser guided missiles and laser beam-riding missiles pose a significant threat to military assets in the modern battlefield. Laser beam-riding missiles are particularly hard to detect because they use low power lasers. Most laser warning systems produced so far can not detect laser beam-riding missiles because of their weak emissions which have signals less than 1% of laser range finder power . They are even harder to defeat because current ...

  8. Physically based landslide warning at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canli, Ekrem; Mergili, Martin; Glade, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    Albeit advancements in the past within the field of geotechnical engineering have led to an increasing in situ damage control in many parts of the world, heavy rainstorms still cause severe damage by triggering landslides. Landslides are usually restricted to the local scale when taking into consideration single events, however, they often tend to occur spatially abundant which makes them a regional phenomenon. This makes the necessity of regional-scale early warning systems (EWS) indispensable. When dealing with landslide EWS, it is impossible to cover all potential early warning situations. Although the calculation of rainfall thresholds is the most common approach for assessing regional landslide early warning, they only represent a simplification of the physical processes involved. In most cases, indeed, there is more than just this one causative factor involved. Here, we present an early prototype for a regional, physically based landslide EWS driven by real-time spatio-temporal rainfall data. Instead of assuming uniform rainfall over a certain area, an automated geostatistical approach is suggested which allows approximating real-time spatially distributed, hourly rainfall predictions based on gauged rainfall data available on the internet. The methodology presented in this study is especially suitable for the implementation in warning systems that contain predefined thresholds and for landslides related to a progressive increase of soil saturation and/or a rising groundwater table. The transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based slope stability (TRIGRS) model is used in a modified way to compute transient pore-pressure changes and associated changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. The geotechnical properties involved are probabilistically integrated within certain predefined ranges to account for the inherent spatial uncertainties. The result is an automatically generated probability of failure raster map that is updated hourly based

  9. Experimental evaluation of fog warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ghamdi, Ali S

    2007-11-01

    Highway safety is a major concern to the public and to transportation professionals, so the number of crashes caused by poor visibility due to fog form an alarming statistic. Drivers respond to poor visibility conditions in different ways: some slow down; others do not. Many drivers simply follow the taillights of the vehicle ahead. Accordingly, hazardous conditions are created in which speeds are both too high for the prevailing conditions and highly variable. Findings are presented from a study of traffic crashes due to fog in the southern region of Saudi Arabia. The primary objective was to assess the effectiveness of fog detection and warning system on driver behavior regarding speed and headway. This warning system includes visibility sensors that automatically activate a variable message sign that posts an advisory speed when hazardous conditions due to fog occur. The system was installed on a 2 km section of a two-lane, rural highway. A data set of 36,013 observations from both experimental and control sections at two study sites was collected and analyzed. The data included vehicle speed, volume, and classification; time headway, time of day, and visibility distance. Although the warning system was ineffective in reducing speed variability, mean speed throughout the experimental sections was reduced by about 6.5 kph. This reduction indicates that the warning system appeared to have a positive effect on driver behavior in fog even though the observed mean speeds were still higher than the posted advisory speed. From relationships found in the literature between mean driving speed and number of crashes, a speed reduction of only 5 kph would yield a 15% decrease in the number of crashes.

  10. Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

    OpenAIRE

    Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi,K.

    2013-01-01

    The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the probability of dike failure, the ensuing scenarios of dike breaching, predicted flood spreading and escape routes for people from the affected areas. Results are presented on interactive decision support ...

  11. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  12. Early Warning System for Disasters within Health Organizations: A Mandatory System for Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rouhollah Zaboli

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Disaster identification and alert systems can be processed in different ways. An early warning system is designed to detect impending danger and send appropriate and clear signals to at risk communities and organizations at the right time and in an unambiguous way. This study aimed to determine early warning system for disaster within health organization in Iran. Methods: This article presents the findings of a mixed-methods study of early warning systems for disaster management within the health organizations in Iran. During the years 2011 to 2012, a sample of 230 health managers was surveyed using a questionnaire and 65 semi-structured interviews were conducted with public health and therapeutic affairs managers who were responsible for disaster management. Results: A range of problems were identified. Although there is a multiagency alert system within the health organizations, other indicators of early warning system are not satisfactory. Furthermore, standard messages which are used to alert organizations are not used under the current system. Conclusion: Some activities such as memorandum of understanding among different stakeholders of disaster response and education of staff and communities could improve the response to disasters within the health organizations.

  13. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2009-09-01

    rainfall-runoff model transforms the (forecasted) rainfall into a runoff volume (m³) and consequently a time-dependent discharge (m³/s) for each of the subwadis which is then routed through the main channel. The flood model then converts the discharges into water stages and generates a spatially-distributed flood map. The rainfall-runoff model is developed in Matlab-Simulink. The latter two models are implemented in Infoworks and Floodworks (both Wallingford Software), which allows an automatic feed into the warning module. The ‘warning module’ has two tasks: 1) to generate specific flags when modelling results exceed pre-established thresholds for rainfall, discharge, water stage, volumes, etc… 2) to communicate the given flags as warning signals to operators and/or stakeholders. The ‘decision support module’ or DSS finally gives to the user the capability of performing alternative analysis in order to have a better idea of the reliability of the forecasts by means of the comparison of already made forecasts with new data and a sensitivity analysis. Although FlaFloM is now able to send out warnings, the forecasts of this first version are expected to be insufficiently accurate which may lead to false warnings and loss of trust with decision-makers if not communicated well. When new insights and data are available, the model will be updated which improves the forecast accuracy. At this moment, we see two major fields of improvement: 1) better rainfall forecasts and 2) better insights of the response of an arid area to storm events. Firstly, the rainfall maps provided better insights in the spatial and temporal extent of a rainfall event, though absolute rainfall values are not considered accurate. The major reason behind is the fact that both global systems are insufficiently parameterized for arid areas. New data from an improved rain gauge network is expected to add value. Secondly, better insights need to be gained on the response of the Wadi to rainfall

  14. Implicit motivational impact of pictorial health warning on cigarette packs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Volchan

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The use of pictorial warning labels on cigarette packages is one of the provisions included in the first ever global health treaty by the World Health Organization against the tobacco epidemic. There is substantial evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of graphic health warning labels on intention to quit, thoughts about health risks and engaging in cessation behaviors. However, studies that address the implicit emotional drives evoked by such warnings are still underexplored. Here, we provide experimental data for the use of pictorial health warnings as a reliable strategy for tobacco control. METHODS: Experiment 1 pre-tested nineteen prototypes of pictorial warnings to screen for their emotional impact. Participants (n = 338 were young adults balanced in gender, smoking status and education. Experiment 2 (n = 63 tested pictorial warnings (ten that were stamped on packs. We employed an innovative set-up to investigate the impact of the warnings on the ordinary attitude of packs' manipulation, and quantified judgments of warnings' emotional strength and efficacy against smoking. FINDINGS: Experiment 1 revealed that women judged the warning prototypes as more aversive than men, and smokers judged them more aversive than non-smokers. Participants with lower education judged the prototypes more aversive than participants with higher education. Experiment 2 showed that stamped warnings antagonized the appeal of the brands by imposing a cost to manipulate the cigarette packs, especially for smokers. Additionally, participants' judgments revealed that the more aversive a warning, the more it is perceived as effective against smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Health warning labels are one of the key components of the integrated approach to control the global tobacco epidemic. The evidence presented in this study adds to the understanding of how implicit responses to pictorial warnings may contribute to behavioral change.

  15. Application of Machine Vision to Vehicle Automatic Collision Warning Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jiang-feng; GAO Feng; XU Guo-yan; YAO Sheng-zhuo

    2008-01-01

    Using the new technologies such as information technology, communication technology and electronic control technology, vehicle collision warning system(CWS) can acquire road condition, adjacent vehicle march condition as well as its dynamics performance continuously, then it can forecast the oncoming potential collision and give a warning. Based on the analysis of driver's driving behavior, algorithm's warning norms are determined. Based on warning norms adopting machine vision method, the cooperation collision warning algorithm(CWA) model with multi-input and multi-output is established which is used in supporting vehicle CWS. The CWA is tested using the actual data and the result shows that this algorithm can identify and carry out warning for vehicle collision efficiently, which has important meaning for improving the vehicle travel safety.

  16. 47 CFR 80.318 - Use of alarm signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Use of alarm signals. 80.318 Section 80.318... § 80.318 Use of alarm signals. (a) The radiotelegraph or radiotelephone alarm signal, as appropriate... transmission of an urgent cyclone warning. In this case the alarm signal may only be used by coast stations...

  17. 47 CFR 80.329 - Safety signals and messages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Safety signals and messages. 80.329 Section 80... Safety Procedures § 80.329 Safety signals and messages. (a) The safety signal indicates that the station... warnings. (b) In radiotelegraphy, the safety signal consists of three repetitions of the group TTT, sent...

  18. The Innovation Research of Financial Early-Warning Index Measurement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The period economic fluctuation is vital for an enterprise to exist and further develop,it directly affect the enterprise financial health.So,it is significant to build up financial early-warning index and measure the warning condition that the enterprise faces and take the effective measures to eliminate. We criticize Altman's Z calculating model and build up some new indexes for enterprise financial early-warning condition measuring and making sound decision.

  19. Real-time earthquake warning for astronomical observatories

    CERN Document Server

    Coughlin, Michael; Barrientos, Sergio; Claver, Chuck; Harms, Jan; Smith, Christopher; Warner, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Early earthquake warning is a rapidly developing capability that has significant ramifications for many fields, including astronomical observatories. In this work, we describe the susceptibility of astronomical facilities to seismic events, including large telescopes as well as second-generation ground-based gravitational-wave interferometers. We describe the potential warning times for observatories from current seismic networks and propose locations for future seismometers to maximize warning times.

  20. Implicit Motivational Impact of Pictorial Health Warning on Cigarette Packs

    OpenAIRE

    Eliane Volchan; Isabel A David; Gisella Tavares; Nascimento, Billy M.; Oliveira, Jose M.; Sonia Gleiser; Andre Szklo; Cristina Perez; Tania Cavalcante; Mirtes G. Pereira; Leticia Oliveira

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The use of pictorial warning labels on cigarette packages is one of the provisions included in the first ever global health treaty by the World Health Organization against the tobacco epidemic. There is substantial evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of graphic health warning labels on intention to quit, thoughts about health risks and engaging in cessation behaviors. However, studies that address the implicit emotional drives evoked by such warnings are still underexplored. H...

  1. Adaptive filters applied on radar signals

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    This master thesis has been performed at SAAB AB in Järfälla, Sweden.A radar warning receiver must alert the user when someone highlights it with radarsignals. Radar signals used today varies and has a wide frequency band. In order todetect all possible radar signals the radar warning receiver must have a widebandwidth. This results in that the noise power will be high in the radar warningreceiver and weak radar signals will be hard to detect or even undetected.The aim of the thesis work was ...

  2. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. A. Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Palaeo-records from China (Cheng et al., 2009; Wang et al., 2008, 2001 demonstrate the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesised that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them (Schewe et al., 2012. Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem records from Sanbao Cave and Hulu Cave, China (Wang et al., 2008, 2001, spanning the penultimate glacial cycle, and in multiple model simulations derived from the data. We find hysteresis behaviour in our model simulations with transitions directly forced by solar insolation. We detect critical slowing down prior to an abrupt monsoon shift during the penultimate deglaciation consistent with long-term orbital forcing. However, such signals are only detectable when the change in system stability is sufficiently slow to be detected by the sampling resolution of the dataset, raising the possibility that the alarm was missed and a similar forcing drove earlier EASM shifts.

  3. Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

  4. A Quantitative Analysis of Variability Warnings in Linux

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melo, Jean; Flesborg, Elvis; Brabrand, Claus

    2015-01-01

    In order to get insight into challenges with quality in highly-configurable software, we analyze one of the largest open source projects, the Linux kernel, and quantify basic properties of configuration-related warnings. We automatically analyze more than 20 thousand valid and distinct random...... configurations, in a computation that lasted more than a month. We count and classify a total of 400,000 warnings to get an insight in the distribution of warning types, and the location of the warnings. We run both on a stable and unstable version of the Linux kernel. The results show that Linux contains...

  5. A Plant Damage State Early Warning System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsieh, Chih Yao; Chou, Hwai Pwu [National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu (China)

    2014-08-15

    In case of a severe accident, operators need to follow the emergency operating procedures (EOPS) to limit the damage. In order to assist operators to face a lot of Plant Damage States (PDS) suddenly, we try to predict and identify the Plant Damage State (PDS) for early warning and decision making. In this study, Containment Event Tree (CET) is used in this event-oriented approach to help severe accident management. The Taipower Lungmen nuclear power station (LNPS), an advanced boiling water reactor, is chosen for case study. The LNPS full scope engineering simulator is used to generate the testing data for method development.

  6. Device for Monitoring - Warning Frequency Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Do Nhu Y

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Power quality was assessed by two parameters voltage and frequency, the voltage changes are of a local property, and change the frequency – systematic. Frequency deviation in the grid due to an imbalance in power between the generator and the load will affect the economic and technical indicators of power stations, as well as consumers. To ensure the stability and reliability of the electric system and generator protection to prevent damage during the operation, it is necessary and indispensable device monitoring – warning frequency generator in power stations.

  7. Smart roadside system for driver assistance and safety warnings: framework and applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Jeong Ah; Kim, Hyun Suk; Cho, Han Byeog

    2011-01-01

    The use of newly emerging sensor technologies in traditional roadway systems can provide real-time traffic services to drivers through Telematics and Intelligent Transport Systems (ITSs). This paper introduces a smart roadside system that utilizes various sensors for driver assistance and traffic safety warnings. This paper shows two road application models for a smart roadside system and sensors: a red-light violation warning system for signalized intersections, and a speed advisory system for highways. Evaluation results for the two services are then shown using a micro-simulation method. In the given real-time applications for drivers, the framework and certain algorithms produce a very efficient solution with respect to the roadway type features and sensor type use.

  8. Smart Roadside System for Driver Assistance and Safety Warnings: Framework and Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Byeog Cho

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The use of newly emerging sensor technologies in traditional roadway systems can provide real-time traffic services to drivers through Telematics and Intelligent Transport Systems (ITSs. This paper introduces a smart roadside system that utilizes various sensors for driver assistance and traffic safety warnings. This paper shows two road application models for a smart roadside system and sensors: a red-light violation warning system for signalized intersections, and a speed advisory system for highways. Evaluation results for the two services are then shown using a micro-simulation method. In the given real-time applications for drivers, the framework and certain algorithms produce a very efficient solution with respect to the roadway type features and sensor type use.

  9. Universal vocal signals of emotion

    OpenAIRE

    Sauter, D.; Eisner, F.; Ekman, P.; Scott, S.

    2009-01-01

    Emotional signals allow for the sharing of important information with conspecifics, for example to warn them of danger. Humans use a range of different cues to communicate to others how they feel, including facial, vocal, and gestural signals. Although much is known about facial expressions of emotion, less research has focused on affect in the voice. We compare British listeners to individuals from remote Namibian villages who have had no exposure to Western culture, and examine recognition ...

  10. Early Warning System Ghana: how to successfully implement a disaster early warning system in a data scarce region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udo, Job; Jungermann, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Ghana is a country frequently struck by natural disasters like floods and droughts. Timely warning or detection of such disasters will mitigate the negative impact on lives and property. However, local data and monitoring systems necessary to provide such a warning are hardly available. The availability and improvement of internet, mobile phones and satellites has provided new possibilities for disaster warning systems in data scarce regions such as Ghana. Our presentation describes the development of an early warning system (EWS) in Ghana completely based on satellite based open data. The EWS provides a flood or drought hazard warning on sub-catchment level and links the warning to a more detailed flood or drought risk map, to enable the disaster coordinator to send warnings or relieve more efficiently to areas that have the highest risk. This is especially relevant because some areas for which the system is implemented are very remote. The system is developed and tested to be robust and operational especially in remote areas. This means that the necessary information is also available under limited internet conditions and not dependent on local computer facilities. In many rural areas in Ghana communities rely on indigenous knowledge when it comes to flood or drought disaster forecasting. The EWS has a feature that allows indigenous knowledge indicators to be taken into account in the warning and makes easy comparison possible with the satellite based warnings.

  11. Discussion on Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Xiaodong; Jiang Haikun; Li Mingxiao

    2008-01-01

    Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting,the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting (early warning) has been discussed.Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting,it only attempts to forecast the magnitude,location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the aualysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation.It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves,and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes.In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting,people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves,in addition to its natural aspect,such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself,the impact of earthquake prediction,and the earthquake resistant capability of structures (buildings),lifeline works,etc.In a word,it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible.In this paper,the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning.

  12. Students' Perceptions of Trigger Warnings in Medical Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beverly, Elizabeth A; Díaz, Sebastián; Kerr, Anna M; Balbo, Jane T; Prokopakis, Kayla E; Fredricks, Todd R

    2017-07-28

    Phenomenon: Trigger warnings are verbal statements or written warnings that alert students in advance to potentially distressing material. Medical education includes numerous subjects frequently identified as triggers, such as abuse, rape, self-injurious behaviors, eating disorders, drug and alcohol addiction, and suicide. Thus, exploring medical students' perceptions of trigger warnings may provide a valuable perspective on the use of these warnings in higher education. As part of a larger descriptive, cross-sectional survey study on medical education, we assessed 1st- and 2nd-year medical students' perceptions of trigger warnings in the preclinical curriculum. Five questions specific to trigger warnings explored students' knowledge, prior experience, and perceptions of trigger warnings in medical education. Frequencies of individual question responses were calculated, and qualitative data were analyzed via content and thematic analyses. Of the 424 medical students invited to participate, 259 completed the survey (M = 24.8 years, SD + 3.4, 51.4% female, 76.1% White, 53.7% 1st-year students). Few students (11.2%) were aware of the term trigger warning and its definition. However, after being presented with a formal definition on the online survey, 38.6% reported having had a professor use one. When asked whether they supported the use of trigger warnings in medical education, respondents were distributed fairly equally by response (yes = 31.0%, maybe = 39.2%, no = 29.7%). Qualitative analysis revealed three themes: (a) Trigger Warnings Allow Students to Know What is Coming and Prepare Themselves: Respondents believed that trigger warnings would benefit students with a history of trauma by providing them additional time to prepare for the material and, if appropriate, seek professional help; (b) Students Need to Learn How to Handle Distressing Information: Respondents agreed that they needed to learn and cope with highly sensitive material because they would be

  13. Warning labels formulated as questions positively influence smoking-related risk perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glock, S.; Müller, B.C.N.; Ritter, S.M.

    2013-01-01

    Research on warning labels printed on cigarette packages has shown that fear inducing health warnings might provoke defensive responses. This study investigated whether reformulating statements into questions could avoid defensive reactions. Smokers were presented with either warning labels formulat

  14. Optical-Fiber Strainmeters for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumberge, M. A.; Agnew, D. C.; Hatfield, W.; Wyatt, F. K.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) includes two tasks: detecting an earthquake and estimating its size. Detection requires low instrumental noise; estimating the size can be done most simply by estimating the moment from the static (near-field) signal, which does not saturate with magnitude. The usual approach in EEW has been to use inertial sensors (detecting acceleration) for low noise, and GPS (measuring displacement) to determine the static signal. Because a strainmeter can combine low noise and broad frequency response in a single sensor, such systems should also be considered for EEW networks. While borehole strainmeters often do not record the static offset correctly, past results from longbase laser strainmeters (LSM's) show that this can be done reliably if the strain is measured over hundreds of meters. Recent developments in optical fiber LSM's have allowed the construction of low-cost, low-power long-base LSM's with low noise in the frequency band of interest. Digital processing of the interference signal makes possible a flat frequency response from 0 to 100 Hz and a high dynamic range, with the upper limit (strain of 0.1%) set by the tensioning of the fiber. Such instruments can be flexibly sited, including in locations, such as the ocean floor, impracticable for GPS. Application of such instruments to EEW will require further, though straightforward, development of processing methods and installation techniques, as well as testing under conditions of high dynamic strain; additional modeling will be needed to determine the optimal use LSM's in an EEW seismometer/GPS network.

  15. 33 CFR 143.15 - Lights and warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Lights and warning devices. 143... devices. (a) OCS facilities must meet the lights and warning devices requirements under part 67 of this... devices requirements under the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea 1972 or...

  16. Multimodal warnings to enhance risk communication and safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haas, E.C.; Erp, J.B.F. van

    2014-01-01

    Multimodal warnings incorporate audio and/or skin-based (tactile) cues to supplement or replace visual cues in environments where the user’s visual perception is busy, impaired, or nonexistent. This paper describes characteristics of audio, tactile, and multimodal warning displays and their role in

  17. 30 CFR 77.410 - Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices. 77... UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Safeguards for Mechanical Equipment § 77.410 Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices. (a) Mobile equipment such as front-end loaders, forklifts, tractors, graders, and trucks,...

  18. 75 FR 69523 - Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-12

    ... descriptive printed matter a brief statement of, among other things, the relevant warnings. Moreover, a.... Specifically, the new required warnings are designed to clearly and effectively convey the negative health... at p. 89; see also Ref. 19 at p. 158). Research has shown that some adolescents report symptoms of...

  19. The investigation of early warning signs of aggression in forensic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    prof Berno van Meijel; Mirjan van Leeuwen; Mieke Grypdonck; Frans Fluttert; Bjørkly Stal

    2012-01-01

    Aims and objectives. The Forensic Early Warning Signs of Aggression Inventory (FESAI) was developed to assist nurses and patients in identifying early warning signs and constructing individual early detection plans (EDP) for the prevention of aggressive incidents. The aims of this research were as f

  20. Tactical Checkpoint: Hail/Warn Suppress/Stop (Poster)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-15

    distractor , optical suppression , human behavior, checkpoint, ambient light, driver suppression , human experimentation, light, paintball, obscuration...HAIL/WARN AND - SUPPRESS /STOP Poster Presented at the 2010 Directed Energies Professional Society Meeting, 15-19 November 2010. 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER...warning to a driver that is approaching a checkpoint. The laser, MCNC light, and the windshield obscuration were evaluated for their suppression

  1. 21 CFR 330.2 - Pregnancy-nursing warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pregnancy-nursing warning. 330.2 Section 330.2 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS... AND NOT MISBRANDED General Provisions § 330.2 Pregnancy-nursing warning. A pregnancy-nursing...

  2. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wächter

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT, the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean.

    Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies.

    In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS, a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS have been successfully incorporated.

    In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC, new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP and event-driven architecture (EDA are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  3. Warning signs prior to aggressive behavior in child psychiatric units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faay, M.D.M.; Valenkamp, M.W.; Nijman, H.L.I.

    2017-01-01

    This study aims at detecting and categorizing early warning signs of aggressive behavior in child psychiatric units. We analyzed 575 violent incident report forms and developed a coding scheme consisting of 16 warning signs. From the 575 incident report forms, a total of 1087 signs were coded. Most

  4. The Effect of Cancer Warning Statements on Alcohol Consumption Intentions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettigrew, Simone; Jongenelis, Michelle I.; Glance, David; Chikritzhs, Tanya; Pratt, Iain S.; Slevin, Terry; Liang, Wenbin; Wakefield, Melanie

    2016-01-01

    In response to increasing calls to introduce warning labels on alcoholic beverages, this study investigated the potential effectiveness of alcohol warning statements designed to increase awareness of the alcohol-cancer link. A national online survey was administered to a diverse sample of Australian adult drinkers (n = 1,680). Along with…

  5. Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Tornado Warning Polygons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindell, M. K.; Huang, S. K.; Wei, H. L.; Samuelson, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    To provide people with more specific information about tornado threats, the National Weather Service has replaced its county-wide warnings with smaller warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area. However, tornado warning polygons do not have a standardized definition regarding tornado strike probabilities (ps) so it is unclear how warning recipients interpret them. To better understand this issue, 155 participants responded to 15 hypothetical warning polygons. After viewing each polygon, they rated the likelihood of a tornado striking their location and the likelihood that they would take nine different response actions ranging from continuing normal activities to getting in a car and driving somewhere safer. The results showed participants inferred that the ps was highest at the polygon's centroid, lower just inside the edges of the polygon, still lower (but not zero) just outside the edges of the polygon, and lowest in locations beyond that. Moreover, higher ps values were associated with lower expectations of continuing normal activities and higher expectations of seeking information from social sources (but not environmental cues) and higher expectations of seeking shelter (but not evacuating in their cars). These results indicate that most people make some errors in their ps judgments but are likely to respond appropriately to the ps they infer from the warning polygons. Overall, the findings from this study and other research can help meteorologists to better understand how people interpret the uncertainty associated with warning polygons and, thus, improve tornado warning systems.

  6. Silent Warning: Understanding the National Terrorism Advisory System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    examination of a terrorism warning system must qualitatively accommodate the complex warning community, determine the level of decision advantage it...costs incurred by state and local governments—and the potential economic losses from reductions in consumer confidence, travel, and tourism —only makes

  7. Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arattano, Massimo; Marchi, Lorenzo

    2008-04-04

    Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows), their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and nonstructural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall) and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche pendulums, photocells

  8. Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Marchi

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows, their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and nonstructural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche

  9. Speak Simply When Warning About After Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, A. J.; Hardebeck, J.; Page, M. T.; van der Elst, N.; Wein, A. M.

    2016-12-01

    When a fault in the ground slips, the ground moves fast and can shake hard. After a big ground shake, there are more shakes. We call them after shocks and these can happen over a long time, for many years. An after shock can shake the ground more than it shook the first time. These shocks can shake and break places where people live and work, make rocks fall down and the ground go soft and wet, and hurt or kill people. After shocks also make people worry. If people are scared, then they may leave the area and not come back. To help people be safe and feel calm we want to tell them what may happen. We often use big words and lots of numbers to give the chances for the number of shakes over days, weeks, and years. That helps some people fix things and do their jobs such as those who work on roads, power, water, phones, hospitals, schools or in the money business. But big words and too many numbers can confuse a lot of people and make them worry more. Studies of talking about the ground shake problem show that it is best to speak simply to people. What if we only use the ten hundred most often used words to talk about these ground shakes. Would that work? Here is a possible warning: Last week's huge ground shake will probably make more ground shakes. This week expect to feel three to ten ground shakes and maybe one big ground shake that could break things. That big ground shake has a chance of 1 in 10. This is normal. Be safe. Stay out of broken houses, shops, and work places. When you feel the ground shake: drop, cover, and hold on. People may feel afraid or be hurt, so check on friends and family. Get some more food and water. Over time there will be fewer ground shakes, but always be ready for them. That warning gives a lot of key ideas: what may happen, whether houses could get broken, that what is happening is normal, and what people may feel and should do. These are the key parts of a good warning. Maybe we should use the most often used words all the time.

  10. An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonry, John L.

    2011-01-01

    Earth is bombarded by meteors, occasionally by one large enough to cause a significant explosion and possible loss of life. It is not possible to detect all hazardous asteroids, and the efforts to detect them years before they strike are only advancing slowly. Similarly, ideas for mitigation of the danger from an impact by moving the asteroid are in their infancy. Although the odds of a deadly asteroid strike in the next century are low, the most likely impact is by a relatively small asteroid, and we suggest that the best mitigation strategy in the near term is simply to move people out of the way. With enough warning, a small asteroid impact should not cause loss of life, and even portable property might be preserved. We describe an early warning system that could provide a week’s notice of most sizeable asteroids or comets on track to hit the Earth. This may be all the mitigation needed or desired for small asteroids, and it can be implemented immediately for relatively low cost. This system, dubbed Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), comprises two observatories separated by about 100 km that simultaneously scan the visible sky twice a night. Software automatically registers a comparison with the unchanging sky and identifies everything that has moved or changed. Communications between the observatories lock down the orbits of anything approaching the Earth, within one night if its arrival is less than a week. The sensitivity of the system permits detection of 140 m asteroids (100 Mton impact energy) three weeks before impact and 50 m asteroids a week before arrival. An ATLAS alarm, augmented by other observations, should result in a determination of impact location and time that is accurate to a few kilometers and a few seconds. In addition to detecting and warning of approaching asteroids, ATLAS will continuously monitor the changing universe around us: most of the variable stars in our Galaxy, many microlensing events from stellar

  11. Systematic ranging and late warning asteroid impacts

    CERN Document Server

    Farnocchia, D; Micheli, M

    2015-01-01

    We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique especially suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the observations is generally short, perhaps a few hours or even less, which leads to severe degeneracies in the orbit estimation process. The systematic ranging approach gets around these degeneracies by performing a raster scan in the poorly-constrained space of topocentric range and range rate, while the plane of sky position and motion are directly tied to the recorded observations. This scan allows us to identify regions corresponding to collision solutions, as well as potential impact times and locations. From the probability distribution of the observation errors, we obtain a probability distribution in the orbital space and then estimate the probability of an Earth impact. We show how this technique is effective for a number of examples, including 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA, the only tw...

  12. Operators in Yemen draw warning from Saudis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-05-04

    This paper reports that foreign oil companies with concessions in northern Yemen have been drawn into a border dispute between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. At least six companies received letters from the Saudi government warning them that steps, as yet undefined, will be taken if exploration extends into disputed areas. A second territorial dispute also appears to be brewing in the region. Iran has ejected United Arab Emirates nationals from the island of Abu Musa in the Persian Gulf, which is jointly administered by Iran and Sharjah, one of the emirates. The U.A.E. government has reported the situation to the Gulf Cooperation Council, triggering a denial from Iran that anyone has been deported from the island.

  13. Tsunami Modeling, Forecast and Warning (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, K.

    2010-12-01

    Tsunami is an infrequent natural hazard; however, once it happens, the effects are devastating and can be on global scale, as demonstrated by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Deterministic modeling of tsunami generation, propagation and coastal behavior has become popular, at least for earthquake tsunamis. Once the earthquake parameters are specified, tsunami arrival times, heights and current velocity at specific coastal points, and inland inundation area can be estimated. Such modeling has been used to make hazard maps usually by assuming largest possible earthquakes. However, smaller tsunamis than such a worst-case scenario occur more frequently. If the hazard maps are used incorrectly, it may lose reliability of coastal residents. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments, similar to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, have been made for some coasts. The output is tsunami hazard curves, i.e. annual probability (or return period) for specified coastal tsunami heights. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and a large number of hazard curves are made for each branch of logic tress representing epistemic uncertainty. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis is used for design of critical facilities but not popularly used for disaster mitigation. Tsunami warning systems, which have been significantly developed since 2004, rely on seismic and sea-level monitoring and pre-made numerical simulation. Real-time data assimilation of offshore sea level measurements can be used to update the warning levels. Tsunami from the February 2010 Chilean earthquake was recorded on many tide gauges and ocean bottom pressure gauges in the Pacific, before it arrived on the Japanese coast about 22 hours after the earthquake. The tsunami height was up to 2 m on the Japanese coast, causing fishery damage amounting 60 million US dollars, but did not cause any human damage.

  14. Experiences from site-specific landslide early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Michoud

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Landslide early warning systems (EWSs have to be implemented in areas with large risk for populations or infrastructures when classical structural remediation measures cannot be set up. This paper aims to gather experiences of existing landslide EWSs, with a special focus on practical requirements (e.g., alarm threshold values have to take into account the smallest detectable signal levels of deployed sensors before being established and specific issues when dealing with system implementations. Within the framework of the SafeLand European project, a questionnaire was sent to about one-hundred institutions in charge of landslide management. Finally, we interpreted answers from experts belonging to 14 operational units related to 23 monitored landslides. Although no standard requirements exist for designing and operating EWSs, this review highlights some key elements, such as the importance of pre-investigation work, the redundancy and robustness of monitoring systems, the establishment of different scenarios adapted to gradual increasing of alert levels, and the necessity of confidence and trust between local populations and scientists. Moreover, it also confirms the need to improve our capabilities for failure forecasting, monitoring techniques and integration of water processes into landslide conceptual models.

  15. An Energy Demodulation Based Fiber Optic Sensing System for Landslide Early-Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To help reduce the impact of geo-hazards, an innovative landslide early-warning technology based on an energy demodulation-based fiber optic sensing (FOS-LW for short technology, is introduced in this paper. FOS-LW measures the energy change in a sensing fiber at the segment of micro-bending, which can be caused by landslide movements, and automatically raises an alarm as soon as the measured signal intensity in the fiber reaches a pre-set threshold. Based on the sensing of micro-bending losses in the fiber optics, a two-event sensing algorithm has been developed for the landslide early-warning. The feasibility of the FOS-LW technology is verified through laboratory simulation and field tests. The result shows that FOS-LW has some unique features—such as the graded alarm, real-time responses, remote monitoring, low cost and passive optical network—and can be applied in the early-warning of landslides.

  16. An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

    2009-07-01

    The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

  17. 46 CFR 113.25-12 - Alarm signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Alarm signals. 113.25-12 Section 113.25-12 Shipping... SYSTEMS AND EQUIPMENT General Emergency Alarm Systems § 113.25-12 Alarm signals. (a) Each general emergency alarm signal must be an electrically-operated bell, klaxon, or other warning device capable of...

  18. Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability

  19. [Study on early-warning of Chinese materia medica price base on ARMA model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Feng; Mao, Yang-Dui

    2014-05-01

    This study sets up an early-warning system framework of Chinese materia medica price, using price index as early warning indicator to establish black early-warning model, with indicator of price index volatility and limit line of "price principal". The research divides warning degree into 5 parts named negative heavy warning, negative light warning, no warning, positive light warning and positive heavy warning, with 5 corresponding lights to describe the change level of the medicine price. Then make an early-warning empirical research based on Chengdu Chinese materia medica price index from December in 2010 to October in 2013. ARMA model is applied to forecast index and the result of early-warning is analyzed, and finally farmer households, companies, customers and the government are recommended respectively.

  20. Predictors for the Number of Warning Information Sources During Tornadoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Zhen; Luo, Jianjun; Liang, Daan; Nejat, Ali

    2017-04-01

    People may receive tornado warnings from multiple information sources, but little is known about factors that affect the number of warning information sources (WISs). This study examined predictors for the number of WISs with a telephone survey on randomly sampled residents in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Joplin, Missouri, approximately 1 year after both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (EF4 and EF5) in 2011. The survey included 1006 finished interviews and the working sample included 903 respondents. Poisson regression and Zero-Inflated Poisson regression showed that older age and having an emergency plan predicted more WISs in both cities. Education, marital status, and gender affected the possibilities of receiving warnings and the number of WISs either in Joplin or in Tuscaloosa. The findings suggest that social disparity affects the access to warnings not only with respect to the likelihood of receiving any warnings but also with respect to the number of WISs. In addition, historical and social contexts are important for examining predictors for the number of WISs. We recommend that the number of WISs should be regarded as an important measure to evaluate access to warnings in addition to the likelihood of receiving warnings. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:168-172).

  1. Comparing Alcohol Marketing and Alcohol Warning Message Policies Across Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wettlaufer, Ashley; Cukier, Samantha N; Giesbrecht, Norman

    2017-08-24

    In order to reduce harms from alcohol, evidence-based policies are to be introduced and sustained. To facilitate the dissemination of policies that reduce alcohol-related harms by documenting, comparing, and sharing information on effective alcohol polices related to restrictions on alcohol marketing and alcohol warning messaging in 10 Canadian provinces. Team members developed measurable indicators to assess policies on (a) restrictions on alcohol marketing, and (b) alcohol warning messaging. Indicators were peer-reviewed by three alcohol policy experts, refined, and data were collected, submitted for validation by provincial experts, and scored independently by two team members. The national average score was 52% for restrictions on marketing policies and 18% for alcohol warning message policies. Most provinces had marketing regulations that went beyond the federal guidelines with penalties for violating marketing regulations. The provincial liquor boards' web pages focused on product promotion, and there were few restrictions on sponsorship activities. No province has implemented alcohol warning labels, and Ontario was the sole province to have legislated warning signs at all points-of-sale. Most provinces provided a variety of warning signs to be displayed voluntarily at points-of-sale; however, the quality of messages varied. Conclusions/Importance: There is extensive alcohol marketing with comparatively few messages focused on the potential harms associated with alcohol. It is recommended that governments collaborate with multiple stakeholders to maximize the preventive impact of restrictions on alcohol marketing and advertising, and a broader implementation of alcohol warning messages.

  2. An on-site alert level early warning system for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Alessandro; Colombelli, Simona; Elia, Luca; Zollo, Aldo

    2017-04-01

    An Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system is a real-time seismic monitoring infrastructure that has the capability to provide warnings to target cities before the arrival of the strongest shaking waves. In order to provide a rapid alert when targets are very close to the epicenter of the events, we developed an on-site EEW approach and evaluated its performance at the nation-wide scale of Italy. We use a single-station, P-wave based method that measures in real-time two ground motion quantities along the early P-wave signal: the initial Peak Displacement (Pd) and the average period parameter (τc). In output, the system provides the predicted ground shaking intensity at the monitored site, the alert level (as defined by Zollo et al., 2010) and a qualitative classification of both earthquake magnitude and source-to-receiver distance. We applied the on-site EEW methodology to a dataset of Italian earthquakes, recorded by the Italian accelerometric network, with magnitude ranging from 3.8 to 6, and evaluated the performance of the system in terms of correct warning and lead-times (i.e., time available for security actions at the target). The results of this retrospective analysis show that, for the large majority of the analyzed cases, the method is able to deliver a correct warning shortly after the P-wave detection, with more than 80% of successful intensity predictions at the target site. The lead-times increase with distance, with a value of 2-6 seconds at 30 km, 8-10 seconds at 50 km and 15-18 seconds at 100 km.

  3. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  4. Inversion of tsunami waveforms and tsunami warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Chao

    Ever since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the technique of inversion of tsunami data and the importance of tsunami warning have drawn the attention of many researchers. However, since tsunamis are rare and extreme events, developed inverse techniques lack validation, and open questions rise when they are applied to a real event. In this study, several of those open questions are investigated, i.e., the wave dispersion, bathymetry grid size and subfault division. First, tsunami records from three large tsunami events -- 2010 Maule, 2011 Tohoku and 2012 Haida Gwaii -- are analyzed to extract the main characteristics of the leading tsunami waves. Using the tool of wavelet transforming, the instant wave period can be obtained and thus the dispersive parameter mu2 can be calculated. mu2 is found to be smaller than 0.02 for all records, indicating that the wave dispersion is minor for the propagation of tsunami leading waves. Second, inversions of tsunami data are carried out for three tsunami events -- 2011 Tohoku, 2012 Haida Gwaii and 2014 Iquique. By varying the subfault size and the bathymetry grid size in the inversions, general rules are established for choosing those two parameters. It is found that the choice of bathymetry grid size depends on various parameters, such as the subfault size and the depth of subfaults. The global bathymetry data GEBCO with spatial resolution of 30 arcsec is generally good if the subfault size is larger than 40 km x 40 km; otherwise, bathymetry data with finer resolution is desirable. Detailed instructions of choosing the bathymetry size can be found in Chapter 2. By contrast, the choice of subfault size has much more freedom; our study shows that the subfault size can be very large without significant influence on the predicted tsunami waves. For earthquakes with magnitude of 8.0 ˜ 9.0, the subfault size can be 60 km ˜ 100 km. In our study, the maximum subfault size results in 9 ˜ 16 subfault patches on the ruptured fault surface

  5. Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.

    2011-11-01

    Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated

  6. Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of a rockfall warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bründl, Michael; Sättele, Martina; Krautblatter, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Rockslides and rockfalls can pose high risk to human settlements and traffic infrastructure. In addition to structural mitigation measures like rockfall nets, warning systems are increasingly installed to reduce rockfall risks. Whereas for structural mitigation measures with reducing effects on the spatial extent a structured evaluation method is existing, no or only few approaches to assess the effectiveness for warning systems are known. Especially for higher magnitude rockfalls structural mitigation measures are not effective, and reliable early warning systems will be essential in future. In response to that, we developed a classification and a framework to assess the reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems (Sättele et al, 2015a; 2016). Here, we demonstrate an application for the rockfall warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012 (Sättele et al., 2015b). We show that it is necessary to design such a warning system as fail-safe construction, which has to incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. With a hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting an event and on initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on related intervention cost. We conclude that it is possible to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of warning systems, which helps to optimize mitigation strategies against rockfall events. References Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Reliability and effectiveness of warning systems for natural hazards: concept and application to debris flow warning, Rel. Eng. Syst. Safety, 142, 192-202, 2015a. Sättele, M., Krautblatter, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Forecasting rock slope failure: How reliable and effective are warning systems?, Landslides, 605, 1-14, 2015b. Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and

  7. Communication of emergency public warnings: A social science perspective and state-of-the-art assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mileti, D.S. (Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (USA)); Sorensen, J.H. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA))

    1990-08-01

    More than 200 studies of warning systems and warning response were reviewed for this social science perspective and state-of-the-art assessment of communication of emergency public warnings. The major findings are as follows. First, variations in the nature and content of warnings have a large impact on whether or not the public heeds the warning. Relevant factors include the warning source; warning channel; the consistency, credibility, accuracy, and understandability of the message; and the warning frequency. Second, characteristics of the population receiving the warning affect warning response. These include social characteristics such as gender, ethnicity and age, social setting characteristics such as stage of life or family context, psychological characteristics such as fatalism or risk perception, and knowledge characteristics such as experience or training. Third, many current myths about public response to emergency warning are at odds with knowledge derived from field investigations. Some of these myths include the keep it simple'' notion, the cry wolf'' syndrome, public panic and hysteria, and those concerning public willingness to respond to warnings. Finally, different methods of warning the public are not equally effective at providing an alert and notification in different physical and social settings. Most systems can provide a warning given three or more hours of available warning time. Special systems such as tone-alert radios are needed to provide rapid warning. 235 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs.

  8. Paradoxical Effects of Warning in the Production of Children's False Memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Prete, Francesco; Mirandola, Chiara; Konishi, Mahiko; Cornoldi, Cesare; Ghetti, Simona

    2014-01-01

    The effects of warning on false recognition and associated subjective experience of false recollection and familiarity were investigated in 7-to 13-year-old children and young adults (N = 259) using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Two warning conditions (warning with an example of a critical lure and warning without an example of a…

  9. Most Americans Favor Larger Health Warnings on Cigarette Packs

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_164398.html Most Americans Favor Larger Health Warnings on Cigarette Packs ... According to the study's first author, Sarah Kowitt, "Most adults, including smokers, have favorable attitudes towards larger ...

  10. Drug Abuse Warning Network US (DAWN-NS-1997)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) survey is designed to capture data on emergency department (ED) episodes that are induced by or related to the use of an...

  11. Drug Abuse Warning Network US (DAWN-NS-1994)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) survey is designed to capture data on emergency department (ED) episodes that are induced by or related to the use of an...

  12. Application of real-time GPS to earthquake early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Richard M. Allen; Alon Ziv

    2011-01-01

      Real-time GPS can provide static-offset observations during an earthquake Real-time GPS provides a robust constrain on magnitude for warnings GPS networks should be used as a companion to seismic...

  13. Annan warns of 'content divide' between rich and poor

    CERN Multimedia

    Dickson, D

    2003-01-01

    "The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, warned today (10 December) that a "content divide" is threatening to deprive developing countries of the full benefits offered by information and communications technologies (ICTs)" (1 page)

  14. 2004 through 2010 Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that continuously monitors drug-related visits to hospital...

  15. Objective test and performance measurement of automotive crash warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabo, S.; Norcross, R. J.; Falco, J. A.

    2007-04-01

    The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), under an interagency agreement with the United States Department of Transportation (DOT), is supporting development of objective test and measurement procedures for vehicle-based warning systems intended to warn an inattentive driver of imminent rear-end, road-departure and lane-change crash scenarios. The work includes development of track and on-road test procedures, and development of an independent measurement system, which together provide data for evaluating warning system performance. This paper will provide an overview of DOT's Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety System (IVBSS) program along with a review of the approach for objectively testing and measuring warning system performance.

  16. Know the Risks, Warning Signs of Ovarian Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 163117.html Know the Risks, Warning Signs of Ovarian Cancer Older age, family history raise the odds for ... Women need to be aware their risk for ovarian cancer increases with age. Half of all cases affect ...

  17. Warnings reduce false memories for missing aspects of events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrie, Matthew P; Garry, Maryanne

    2011-01-01

    When people see movies with some parts missing, they falsely recognize many of the missing parts later. In two experiments, we examined the effect of warnings on people's false memories for these parts. In Experiment 1, warning subjects about false recognition before the movie (forewarnings) reduced false recognition, but warning them after the movie (postwarnings) reduced false recognition to a lesser extent. In Experiment 2, the effect of the warnings depended on the nature of the missing parts. Forewarnings were more effective than postwarnings in reducing false recognition of missing noncrucial parts, but forewarnings and postwarnings were similarly effective in reducing false recognition of crucial missing parts. We use the source monitoring framework to explain our results.

  18. Fentanyl-Laced 'Norco' Is Lethal, Report Warns

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_160158.html Fentanyl-Laced 'Norco' Is Lethal, Report Warns New street ... study involving the drug. The street drug combines fentanyl -- the synthetic opioid painkiller linked to the death ...

  19. FDA Issues Anesthesia Warning for Pregnant Women, Kids Under 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_162543.html FDA Issues Anesthesia Warning for Pregnant Women, Kids Under ... agency news release. She is director of the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research. "Parents and ...

  20. Russian eruption warning systems for aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, C.; Girina, O.; Senyukov, S.; Rybin, A.; Osiensky, J.; Izbekov, P.; Ferguson, G.

    2009-01-01

    More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

  1. An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact

    CERN Document Server

    Tonry, John L

    2010-01-01

    Earth is bombarded by meteors, occasionally by one large enough to cause a significant explosion and possible loss of life. Although the odds of a deadly asteroid strike in the next century are low, the most likely impact is by a relatively small asteroid, and we suggest that the best mitigation strategy in the near term is simply to move people out of the way. We describe an "early warning" system that could provide a week's notice of most sizable asteroids or comets on track to hit the Earth. This system, dubbed "Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System" (ATLAS), comprises two observatories separated by about 100km that simultaneously scan the visible sky twice a night, and can be implemented immediately for relatively low cost. The sensitivity of ATLAS permits detection of 140m asteroids (100 Mton impact energy) three weeks before impact, and 50m asteroids a week before arrival. An ATLAS alarm, augmented by other observations, should result in a determination of impact location and time that is accura...

  2. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

    2015-12-01

    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  3. Number of warning information sources and decision making during tornadoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jianjun; Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan

    2015-03-01

    Taking proper protective action upon receiving tornado warnings is critical to reducing casualties. With more warning information sources becoming available, how the number of such information sources affects decision making should be quantitatively investigated. To examine how the number of warning information sources affected individuals' decisions to take protective action during tornadoes. A telephone survey using random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO, resulting in a working sample of 782 respondents. Both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (Enhanced Fujita Scale [EF]4 and EF5) in 2011. The analysis was conducted in 2013. Logistic regression analysis showed that relative to having only one warning information source, having two and three or more warning information sources significantly increased the odds of taking protective action in Joplin but not in Tuscaloosa; having three or more sources had a significantly stronger effect on taking protective action in Joplin than in Tuscaloosa. Having an emergency preparation plan in both cities and being white in Tuscaloosa significantly increased the odds of taking protective action, whereas being divorced in Joplin reduced these odds. Receiving warnings from more warning information sources might be more beneficial in places with less previous exposure to tornadoes and for populations with lower awareness of a potential tornado and higher probability of receiving no warnings. Emergency management agencies and public health officials should give priority to these places and populations when formulating disaster mitigation decisions and policies. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Air quality early-warning system for cities in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yunzhen; Yang, Wendong; Wang, Jianzhou

    2017-01-01

    Air pollution has become a serious issue in many developing countries, especially in China, and could generate adverse effects on human beings. Air quality early-warning systems play an increasingly significant role in regulatory plans that reduce and control emissions of air pollutants and inform the public in advance when harmful air pollution is foreseen. However, building a robust early-warning system that will improve the ability of early-warning is not only a challenge but also a critical issue for the entire society. Relevant research is still poor in China and cannot always satisfy the growing requirements of regulatory planning, despite the issue's significance. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid air quality early-warning system was successfully developed, composed of forecasting and evaluation. First, a hybrid forecasting model was proposed as an important part of this system based on the theory of "decomposition and ensemble" and combined with the advanced data processing technique, support vector machine, the latest bio-inspired optimization algorithm and the leave-one-out strategy for deciding weights. Afterwards, to intensify the research, fuzzy evaluation was performed, which also plays an indispensable role in the early-warning system. The forecasting model and fuzzy evaluation approaches are complementary. Case studies using daily air pollution concentrations of six air pollutants from three cities in China (i.e., Taiyuan, Harbin and Chongqing) are used as examples to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. Experimental results demonstrate that both the accuracy and the effectiveness of the developed system are greatly superior for air quality early warning. Furthermore, the application of forecasting and evaluation enables the informative and effective quantification of future air quality, offering a significant advantage, and can be employed to develop rapid air quality early-warning systems.

  5. Earthquake Early Warning with Seismogeodesy: Detection, Location, and Magnitude Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning is critical to reducing injuries and casualties in case of a large magnitude earthquake. The system must rely on near-source data to minimize the time between event onset and issuance of a warning. Early warning systems typically use seismic instruments (seismometers and accelerometers), but these instruments experience difficulty maintaining reliable data in the near-source region and undergo magnitude saturation for large events. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instruments capture the long period motions and have been shown to produce robust estimates of the true size of the earthquake source. However, GNSS is often overlooked in this context in part because it is not precise enough to record the first seismic wave arrivals (P-wave detection), an important consideration for issuing an early warning. GNSS instruments are becoming integrated into early warning, but are not yet fully exploited. Our approach involves the combination of direct measurements from collocated GNSS and accelerometer stations to estimate broadband coseismic displacement and velocity waveforms [Bock et al., 2011], a method known as seismogeodesy. We present the prototype seismogeodetic early warning system developed at Scripps and demonstrate that the seismogeodetic dataset can be used for P-wave detection, hypocenter location, and shaking onset determination. We discuss uncertainties in each of these estimates and include discussion of the sensitivity of our estimates as a function of the azimuthal distribution of monitoring stations. The seismogeodetic combination has previously been shown to be immune to magnitude saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. Rapid magnitude estimation is an important product in earthquake early warning, and is the critical metric in current tsunami hazard warnings. Using the seismogeodetic approach, we refine earthquake magnitude scaling using P-wave amplitudes (Pd) and peak ground displacements (PGD) for a

  6. Research of internet worm warning system based on system identification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tao ZHOU; Guanzhong DAI; Huimin YE

    2006-01-01

    The frequent explosion of Internet worms has been one of the most serious problems in cyberspace security.In this paper, by analyzing the worm's propagation model, we propose a new worm warning system based on the method of system identification, and use recursive least squares algorithm to estimate the worm's infection rate. The simulation result shows the method we adopted is an efficient way to conduct Internet worm warning.

  7. Public Health Surveillance in Pilot Drinking Water Contamination Warning Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Dangel, Chrissy; Allgeier, Steven C.; Gibbons, Darcy; Haas, Adam

    2013-01-01

    Objective This paper describes the lessons learned from operation and maintenance of the public health surveillance (PHS) component of five pilot city drinking water contamination warning systems (CWS) including: Cincinnati, New York, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Dallas. Introduction The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designed a program to pilot multi-component contamination warning systems (CWSs), known as the ?Water Security initiative (WSi).? The Cincinnati pilot has been f...

  8. Enhancement of Delivery of Warning Messages for Mobile Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Sheng Tsai

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V communication systems have been studied extensively in recent years by transportation experts worldwide. Such systems enable the transmission of warning messages (alarms between vehicles without additional roadside infrastructure. Thus, messages can be sent faster than through base stations. Because of these advantages, researchers worldwide are exploring how this technology can improve traffic safety. However, the various V2V schemes proposed thus far share the same problem: (1 unnecessary repetition of warning messages and (2 transmission to inapplicable respondents. This study proposes a new method for delivering V2V warning messages which reduces the redundant messages common in current schemes. Here, three schemes to deliver alarms are considered. One is blind flooding to broadcast alarms. Warning messages are routed by AODV protocol. Another is called Two Lanes. The broadcasting region of alarms is limited in two traffic lanes nearby a traffic accident only. And the last one is the proposed strategy where a warning message received by a car will be simply checked the prime number carried within the alarm header and decided whether the car is responsible to deliver it. If necessary, it will be forwarded to the next nodes. Otherwise, the redundant warning message shall be discarded to release system load and avoid to suspend other normal transmission proceeding. The results reveal that minimizing the delays caused by such redundant messages enables warnings to be sent to drivers more rapidly. Also, it prioritizes warning messages so that drivers are apprised of the most serious and dangerous traffic accidents. Moreover, another key finding in this paper is that the radii of the broadcasting coverage shall be adjusted carefully and adaptively to optimize the system performance.

  9. Developing models to estimate the benefits from flood warnings

    OpenAIRE

    Parker, Dennis J.; Priest, Sally J.; Schildt, Anne; Handmer, John W.

    2008-01-01

    Flood forecasting and warning systems have a significant role to play within integrated flood risk management, either in combination with mobile structural flood defences or as part of an approach which combines a number of non-structural measures. In theory the benefits of flood warnings, in terms of community security, protection of life and flood damage reduction, should be large. The theoretical benefit potential is being driven upwards by important advances in the predictive sciences, an...

  10. Smokers' recall of Australian graphic cigarette packet warnings & awareness of associated health effects, 2005-2008

    OpenAIRE

    Quester Pascale G; Miller Caroline L; Hill David J; Hiller Janet E

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background In 2006, Australia introduced graphic cigarette packet warnings. The new warnings include one of 14 pictures, many depicting tobacco-related pathology. The warnings were introduced in two sets; Set A in March and Set B from November. This study explores their impact on smokers' beliefs about smoking related illnesses. This study also examines the varying impact of different warnings, to see whether warnings with visceral images have greater impact on smokers' beliefs than ...

  11. Augmented reality warnings in vehicles: Effects of modality and specificity on effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Felix; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang

    2017-04-01

    In the future, vehicles will be able to warn drivers of hidden dangers before they are visible. Specific warning information about these hazards could improve drivers' reactions and the warning effectiveness, but could also impair them, for example, by additional cognitive-processing costs. In a driving simulator study with 88 participants, we investigated the effects of modality (auditory vs. visual) and specificity (low vs. high) on warning effectiveness. For the specific warnings, we used augmented reality as an advanced technology to display the additional auditory or visual warning information. Part one of the study concentrates on the effectiveness of necessary warnings and part two on the drivers' compliance despite false alarms. For the first warning scenario, we found several positive main effects of specificity. However, subsequent effects of specificity were moderated by the modality of the warnings. The specific visual warnings were observed to have advantages over the three other warning designs concerning gaze and braking reaction times, passing speeds and collision rates. Besides the true alarms, braking reaction times as well as subjective evaluation after these warnings were still improved despite false alarms. The specific auditory warnings were revealed to have only a few advantages, but also several disadvantages. The results further indicate that the exact coding of additional information, beyond its mere amount and modality, plays an important role. Moreover, the observed advantages of the specific visual warnings highlight the potential benefit of augmented reality coding to improve future collision warnings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Design and evaluation of security multimedia warnings for children's smartphones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzel, Wiebke; Tuchscheerer, Sven; Fruth, Jana; Kraetzer, Christian; Dittmann, Jana

    2012-02-01

    This article describes primarily the development and empiric validation of a design for security warning messages on smartphones for primary school children (7-10 years old). Our design approach for security warnings for children uses a specific character and is based on recommendations of a paediatrician expert. The design criteria are adapted to children's skills, e.g. their visual, acoustic, and haptic perception and their literacy. The developed security warnings are prototypically implemented in an iOS application (on the iPhone 3G/4G) where children are warned by a simulated anti-malware background service, while they are busy with another task. For the evaluation we select methods for empiric validation of the design approach from the field of usability testing ("think aloud" test, questionnaires, log-files, etc.). Our security warnings prototype is evaluated in an empiric user study with 13 primary school children, aged between 8 and 9 years and of different gender (5 girls, 8 boys). The evaluation analysis shows, that nearly all children liked the design of our security warnings. Surprisingly, on several security warning messages most of the children react in the right way after reading the warning, although the meaning couldn't be interpreted in the right way. Another interesting result is, that several children relate specific information, e.g. update, to a specific character. Furthermore, it could be seen that most of the primary school test candidates have little awareness of security threats on smartphones. It is a very strong argument to develop e.g. tutorials or websites in order to raise awareness and teach children how to recognize security threats and how to react to them. Our design approach of security warnings for children's smartphones can be a basis for warning on other systems or applications like tutorials, which are used by children. In a second investigation, we focus on webpages, designed for children since smartphones and webpages (the

  13. Development of an early-warning system for monitoring remote volcanoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sauvage

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available Many andesitic volcanoes are quiescent for long time periods: usually (but not always an increase in seismic activity and in deformation precedes an eruption by a few months or a few days. A UNESCO panel has put forward the concept of an early warning system for monitoring dormant volcanoes in remote regions. Simple seismic or deformation measuring devices can in principle be built for monitoring remote volcanoes. These instruments are composed of two units: 1 a processor that measures the baseline «activity» of the volcano and decides when the activity increases above a certain threshold; 2 a transmitter for long distance communication. For slow parameters like tilt or extensometry, the signal can be transmitted every few minutes or hours. For seismology, signals include a large quantity of data and therefore they are usually not transmitted. The processing unit is not easy to design because a single seismic station can record noises that are very similar to «volcanic events». Average noise level on a given time interval, event detection counters and high amplitude ground motion counters are a simple (but not exhaustive way to summarize seismic activity. The transmission of data from the field to a monitoring center is feasible by present and future satellite telemetry. We present our attempt to develop an early warning system for remote volcano monitoring with data transmission by satellite.

  14. GITEWS -- The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauterjung, J.; Rudloff, A.

    2005-12-01

    The aim of this work is the implementation of an effective Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean. It is a component part of an Early Warning System that will also be capable of registering other natural disasters such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The system integrates terrestrial observation networks of seismology und geodesy with marine measurements techniques and satellite observations. The required R & D work will be realized within the framework of a stage-plan, which will, within a short time span of 1-3 years, be able to provide effective warning on the one hand and, which will also allow for an integration of technological developments, currently undergoing further research. The initiative is coordinated by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF), represented by the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ). In view of the geological situation one has to bear in mind that Indonesia especially, due to the fact that the main islands are located next to and above the Sunda seismogenic zone, could most frequently and most intensively in the future be prone to catastrophic Tsunami events. The envisaged Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean consists of different components as broadband seismometers, GPS, tide gauges, ocean-bottom pressure sensors and GPS-Buoys. On the basis of the data and recordings registered a warning can be generated. This presentation gives insight into the creation of the 26 December 2004 Tsunami, introduces the planned technical realization of the Early Warning System, shows first model scenarios and gives an overview of the planned realization of an Early Warning System in the Indian Ocean. http://www.gfz-potsdam.de

  15. Patients’ attention to and understanding of adverse drug reaction warnings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tresa Muir McNeal

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Tresa Muir McNeal1, Colleen Y Colbert1, Christian Cable1, Curtis R Mirkes1, June G Lubowinski2, John D Myers11Department of Medicine, Texas A&M University System HSC College of Medicine, Scott & White Healthcare, Temple, TX, USA; 2RD Haynes Medical Library, Scott & White Healthcare, Temple, TX, USAIntroduction: Medications are critical to the management of patient conditions, and they can have significant effects on the success or failure of medical interventions. Patient perceptions of drug warnings play an important role in medication compliance and ultimately disease management. Several factors may affect patients’ understanding of drug warnings and drug labeling, including health literacy and interactions with physicians and pharmacists.Purpose: The purpose of this article is to provide a review of the literature related to patient perceptions of drug warnings and drug labeling. Descriptive articles and studies regarding patient perceptions and knowledge of adverse drug reaction warnings were reviewed.Methods: The following databases were utilized to search the literature related to patient perceptions of drug warnings: PubMed, Academic Search Premiere, CINAHL, Medline, Psych Info, Business Source Complete, Alternative Healthwatch, Health Source (both Nursing/Academic and Consumer additions, JSTOR, and Master File Premiere. For the purpose of this review, any peer-reviewed article was eligible. Exclusionary criteria included: articles published in languages other than English, articles/studies on patient perceptions of vaccines and chemotherapy, and articles related to perceptions of medications administered in the inpatient setting. Forty-six articles were included in the review.Results: Health literacy has been shown to have a major impact on patients’ ability to understand potential adverse reactions and instructions on correct dosing of medications. Direct communication with physicians and pharmacists is one of the most important and

  16. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

    2017-01-01

    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  17. Conspicuity, memorability, comprehension, and priming in road hazard warning signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlton, Samuel G

    2006-05-01

    This study assessed driver reactions to 16 road hazard warning signs of various formats by projecting life-sized video of road scenes to drivers in a driving simulator. A range of measures, including attentional and search conspicuity, implicit and explicit recognition, dynamic and static comprehension, and sign priming were collected. Of the signs tested, road works and school warning signs were most often detected, remembered, and understood. Slippery surface warnings were associated with some of the lowest detection and comprehension rates. The effectiveness of the different formats depended on the type of hazard sign. In the case of road works warnings, a flashing variable message format was only slightly more conspicuous than the large dimension format, equal in comprehensibility, and perhaps somewhat worse in terms of memorability. For the school warnings, however, the flashing variable message format appeared to convey a greater sense of potential hazard, produced superior search conspicuity and priming, and was equal in terms of memorability and comprehensibility. The range of measures worked well as a whole with the two measures of conspicuity and the measure of static comprehension showing the greatest consistency.

  18. History and evolution of warning labels for automotive friction products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopelovich, Luda M; Thuett, Kerry A; Chapman, Pamela S; Paustenbach, Dennis J

    2014-04-01

    There have been claims over the years that asbestos-containing product manufacturers did not sufficiently warn end users early enough regarding the potential health hazards associated with their products (1930s-1990s). To address this issue, we compared the content of the warnings associated with asbestos-containing friction products (brakes, clutches, and gaskets) manufactured by the US automotive industries to what was expected by regulatory agencies during the time period in which an understanding of asbestos health hazards was being developed. We ended our evaluation around 1990, since asbestos-containing manufacturer supplied automotive products were functionally removed from commerce by 1985 in the United States. We assessed the warnings issued in users' manuals, technical service bulletins, product packaging materials, and labels placed on products themselves. Based on our evaluation, regulatory agencies had no guidelines regarding specific warning language for finished friction products, particularly when a product contained encapsulated asbestos fibers (i.e., modified by a bonding agent). Even today, federal regulations do not require labeling on encapsulated products when, based on professional judgment or sampling, user exposure is not expected to exceed the OSHA PEL. We concluded that, despite limited regulatory guidance, the US automotive industry provided adequate warnings with regards to its friction products. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. A brief measure of reactance to health warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Marissa G; Sheeran, Paschal; Noar, Seth M; Ribisl, Kurt M; Boynton, Marcella H; Brewer, Noel T

    2017-06-01

    Reactance to persuasive messages involves perceived threat to freedom, anger, and counterarguing that may undermine the impact of health warnings. To understand reactance's effects, reliable and valid assessment is critical. We sought to develop and validate a brief Reactance to Health Warnings Scale (RHWS). Two independent samples of US adults completed the brief RHWS in studies that presented warnings on cigarette packs that smokers carried with them for 4 weeks (Study 1; n = 2149) or as digital images of cigarette packs that participants viewed briefly (Study 2; n = 1413). The three-item Brief RHWS had good internal consistency and test-retest reliability. The scale correlated with higher trait reactance and exposure to pictorial warnings, supporting its convergent validity. With respect to predictive validity, the Brief RHWS predicted perceived message effectiveness, quit intentions, avoidance of the warnings, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. The Brief RHWS can serve as an efficient adjunct to the development of persuasive messages.

  20. Modelling of tidally affected river reaches with data assimilation for flood warning purposes: An example on the River Dee, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. J.; Beven, K.; Horsburgh, K.; Cullen, J.

    2012-04-01

    On rivers where the flow regime is influenced by a tidal signal the provision of accurate forecasts requires the careful coupling of predictive models for both the tidal signal and the rainfall driven river system. This paper discusses such a coupled modelling system constructed for the River Dee (UK). A series of parsimonious, physically interpretable time series models are used to represent the dynamics of the river water level at several gauging sites on the flood plain. These gauges are used operationally to help in determining the issuing of flood warnings. The simplified models are coupled and cast into a state space form. The assimilation of the observed water levels at the gauge sites to inform future forecasts is then a non-linear filter a solution to which is readily approximated. Assessment of the model forecasts against the observed data is carried out using a number of existing metrics. These suggest the model forecasts are a useful guide to the future water level. The representation of the forecast and its uncertainty to the operational staff is considered. A prototype of the sequential decision making process; based on the relative cost of 'true' or 'false' warnings; and designed to help guide the catchment manager in issuing warnings is presented.

  1. Research and Application of an Air Quality Early Warning System Based on a Modified Least Squares Support Vector Machine and a Cloud Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianzhou; Niu, Tong; Wang, Rui

    2017-01-01

    The worsening atmospheric pollution increases the necessity of air quality early warning systems (EWSs). Despite the fact that a massive amount of investigation about EWS in theory and practicality has been conducted by numerous researchers, studies concerning the quantification of uncertain information and comprehensive evaluation are still lacking, which impedes further development in the area. In this paper, firstly a comprehensive warning system is proposed, which consists of two vital indispensable modules, namely effective forecasting and scientific evaluation, respectively. For the forecasting module, a novel hybrid model combining the theory of data preprocessing and numerical optimization is first developed to implement effective forecasting for air pollutant concentration. Especially, in order to further enhance the accuracy and robustness of the warning system, interval forecasting is implemented to quantify the uncertainties generated by forecasts, which can provide significant risk signals by using point forecasting for decision-makers. For the evaluation module, a cloud model, based on probability and fuzzy set theory, is developed to perform comprehensive evaluations of air quality, which can realize the transformation between qualitative concept and quantitative data. To verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the warning system, extensive simulations based on air pollutants data from Dalian in China were effectively implemented, which illustrate that the warning system is not only remarkably high-performance, but also widely applicable. PMID:28257122

  2. Co-detection of acoustic emissions during failure of heterogeneous media: new perspectives for natural hazard early warning

    CERN Document Server

    Faillettaz, J; Reiweger, I

    2015-01-01

    A promising method for real time early warning of gravity driven rupture that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. The method capitalizes on co-detection of elastic waves emanating from micro-cracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event co-detection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent co-detected events marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Using a spatially explicit fiber bundle numerical model with spatially correlated mechanical strength and two load redistribution rules, we constructed a range of mechanical failure scenarios and associated failure events (mapped into AE) in space and time. Analysis considering hypothetical arrays of sensors and consideration of signal attenuation demonstrate the potential of the co-detection principles even for insensitive sensors to provide early warning for imminent global failure.

  3. Brief communication "Landslide Early Warning System: toolbox and general concepts"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Intrieri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We define landslide Early Warning Systems and present practical guidelines to assist end-users with limited experience in the design of landslide Early Warning Systems (EWSs.

    In particular, two flow chart-based tools coming from the results of the SafeLand project (7th Framework Program have been created to make them as simple and general as possible and in compliance with a variety of landslide types and settings at single slope scale. We point out that it is not possible to cover all the real landslide early warning situations that might occur, therefore it will be necessary for end-users to adapt the procedure to local peculiarities of the locations where the landslide EWS will be operated.

  4. On-site early-warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dino Bindi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work, the development of an on-site early warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan is outlined. Several low cost sensors equipped with MEMS accelerometers are installed in eight buildings distributed within the urban area. The different sensing units communicate each other via wireless links and the seismic data are streamed in real-time to the data center using internet. Since each single sensing unit has computing capabilities, software for data processing can be installed to perform decentralized actions. In particular, each sensing unit can perform event detection task and run software for on-site early warning. If a description for the vulnerability of the building is uploaded in the sensing unit, this piece of information can be exploited to introduce the expected probability of damage in the early-warning protocol customized for a specific structure.

  5. Data Processing Model of Coalmine Gas Early-Warning System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAN Jian-sheng; YIN Hong-sheng; LIU Xiu-rong; HUA Gang; XU Yong-gang

    2007-01-01

    The data processing mode is vital to the performance of an entire coalmine gas early-warning system, especially in real-time performance. Our objective was to present the structural features of coalmine gas data, so that the data could be processed at different priority levels in C language. Two different data processing models, one with priority and the other without priority, were built based on queuing theory. Their theoretical formulas were determined via a M/M/1 model in order to calculate average occupation time of each measuring point in an early-warning program. We validated the model with the gas early-warning system of the Huaibei Coalmine Group Corp. The results indicate that the average occupation time for gas data processing by using the queuing system model with priority is nearly 1/30 of that of the model without priority..

  6. Tobacco branding, plain packaging, pictorial warnings, and symbolic consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoek, Janet; Gendall, Philip; Gifford, Heather; Pirikahu, Gill; McCool, Judith; Pene, Gina; Edwards, Richard; Thomson, George

    2012-05-01

    We use brand association and symbolic consumption theory to explore how plain cigarette packaging would influence the identities young adults cocreate with tobacco products. Group discussions and in-depth interviews with 86 young adult smokers and nonsmokers investigated how participants perceive tobacco branding and plain cigarette packaging with larger health warnings. We examined the transcript data using thematic analysis and explored how removing tobacco branding and replacing this with larger warnings would affect the symbolic status of tobacco brands and their social connotations. Smokers used tobacco brand imagery to define their social attributes and standing, and their connection with specific groups. Plain cigarette packaging usurped this process by undermining aspirational connotations and exposing tobacco products as toxic. Replacing tobacco branding with larger health warnings diminishes the cachet brand insignia creates, weakens the social benefits brands confer on users, and represents a potentially powerful policy measure.

  7. Wavelet analysis of the seismograms for tsunami warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chamoli

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The complexity in the tsunami phenomenon makes the available warning systems not much effective in the practical situations. The problem arises due to the time lapsed in the data transfer, processing and modeling. The modeling and simulation needs the input fault geometry and mechanism of the earthquake. The estimation of these parameters and other aprior information increases the utilized time for making any warning. Here, the wavelet analysis is used to identify the tsunamigenesis of an earthquake. The frequency content of the seismogram in time scale domain is examined using wavelet transform. The energy content in high frequencies is calculated and gives a threshold for tsunami warnings. Only first few minutes of the seismograms of the earthquake events are used for quick estimation. The results for the earthquake events of Andaman Sumatra region and other historic events are promising.

  8. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Tablazon

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement

  9. Acoustic signal detection of manatee calls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niezrecki, Christopher; Phillips, Richard; Meyer, Michael; Beusse, Diedrich O.

    2003-04-01

    The West Indian manatee (trichechus manatus latirostris) has become endangered partly because of a growing number of collisions with boats. A system to warn boaters of the presence of manatees, that can signal to boaters that manatees are present in the immediate vicinity, could potentially reduce these boat collisions. In order to identify the presence of manatees, acoustic methods are employed. Within this paper, three different detection algorithms are used to detect the calls of the West Indian manatee. The detection systems are tested in the laboratory using simulated manatee vocalizations from an audio compact disc. The detection method that provides the best overall performance is able to correctly identify ~=96% of the manatee vocalizations. However the system also results in a false positive rate of ~=16%. The results of this work may ultimately lead to the development of a manatee warning system that can warn boaters of the presence of manatees.

  10. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800

  11. NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System - Final Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2005-01-01

    Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a

  12. Early warning of geohazards using space technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tronin, A.

    The societal impact of geological hazards is enormous. Every year volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and subsidence claim thousands of lives, injure many thousands more, devastate peoples' homes and destroy their livelihoods. The costs of damaged infrastructure are taken higher still by insurance premiums and run into the billions in any currency. This affects rich and poor alike, but with a disproportionate impact on the developing world. As the human population increases and more people live in hazardous areas, this impact grows unsustainably. It must be reduced and that requires increased understanding of the geohazards, improved preparedness for disasters and better ways to manage them when they occur. The inter-related disasters that comprise geohazards are all driven directly by geological processes and share ground deformation as a common thread. This means that they can be addressed using similar technology and understood using related scientific modelling processes. Geohazards are a complex phenomenon and no one method can provide all the necessary information and understanding. It is essential that Earth Observation data are integrated with airborne data, in-situ observations and associated historical data archives, and then analysed using GIS and other modelling tools if these hazards are to be understood and managed. Geohazards occur in one form or another in every country. They do not respect national boundaries and have the potential to cause changes in the atmosphere that will be truly global in effect, requiring a global observing infrastructure to monitor them. The current situation in space research of early warning of geohazards indicates a few phenomena, related with geohazard processes: Earth's deformation, surface temperature, gas and aerosol emission, electromagnetic disturbances in ionosphere. Both horizontal and vertical deformations scaled about tens centimetres and meters measured after the shock. Such deformations are recorded by In

  13. Caution and Warning Alarm Design and Evaluation for NASA CEV Auditory Displays: SHFE Information Presentation Directed Research Project (DRPP) report 12.07

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begault, Durand R.; Godfroy, Martine; Sandor, Aniko; Holden, Kritina

    2008-01-01

    The design of caution-warning signals for NASA s Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and other future spacecraft will be based on both best practices based on current research and evaluation of current alarms. A design approach is presented based upon cross-disciplinary examination of psychoacoustic research, human factors experience, aerospace practices, and acoustical engineering requirements. A listening test with thirteen participants was performed involving ranking and grading of current and newly developed caution-warning stimuli under three conditions: (1) alarm levels adjusted for compliance with ISO 7731, "Danger signals for work places - Auditory Danger Signals", (2) alarm levels adjusted to an overall 15 dBA s/n ratio and (3) simulated codec low-pass filtering. Questionnaire data yielded useful insights regarding cognitive associations with the sounds.

  14. Flow ensemble prediction for flash flood warnings at ungauged basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Caseri, Angelica; Ramos, Maria-Helena; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Jurdy, Nicolas

    2015-04-01

    Flash floods, which are typically triggered by severe rainfall events, are difficult to monitor and predict at the spatial and temporal scales of interest due to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) need to be taken into account to provide skillful flash flood warnings with increased warning lead time. In France, the AIGA discharge-threshold flood warning system is currently being enhanced to ingest high-resolution ensemble QPFs from convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, as well as probabilistic QPEs, to improve flash flood warnings for small-to-medium (from 10 to 1000 km²) ungauged basins. The current deterministic AIGA system is operational in the South of France since 2005. It ingests the operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France to run a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model at a 1-km² resolution every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates of given return periods. Warnings are then provided to the French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) and regional flood forecasting offices, based on the estimated severity of ongoing events. The calibration and regionalization of the hydrologic model has been recently enhanced to implement an operational flash flood warning system for the entire French territory. To quantify the QPF uncertainty, the COSMO-DE-EPS rainfall ensembles from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (20 members at a 2.8-km resolution for a lead time of 21 hours), which are available on the North-eastern part of France, were ingested in the hydrologic model of the AIGA system. Streamflow ensembles were produced and probabilistic flash flood warnings were derived for the Meuse and Moselle river basins and

  15. Warning navigation system using real-time safe region monitoring for otologic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Byunghyun; Oka, Masamichi; Matsumoto, Nozomu; Ouchida, Riichi; Hong, Jaesung; Hashizume, Makoto

    2013-05-01

    We developed a surgical navigation system that warns the surgeon with auditory and visual feedback to protect the facial nerve with real-time monitoring of the safe region during drilling. Warning navigation modules were developed and integrated into a free open source software platform. To obtain high registration accuracy, we used a high-precision laser-sintered template of the patient's bone surface to register the computed tomography (CT) images. We calculated the closest distance between the drill tip and the surface of the facial nerve during drilling. When the drill tip entered the safe regions, the navigation system provided an auditory and visual signal which differed in each safe region. To evaluate the effectiveness of the system, we performed phantom experiments for maintaining a given safe margin from the facial nerve when drilling bone models, with and without the navigation system. The error of the safe margin was measured on postoperative CT images. In real surgery, we evaluated the feasibility of the system in comparison with conventional facial nerve monitoring. The navigation accuracy was submillimeter for the target registration error. In the phantom study, the task with navigation ([Formula: see text] mm) was more successful with smaller error, than the task without navigation ([Formula: see text] mm, [Formula: see text]). The clinical feasibility of the system was confirmed in three real surgeries. This system could assist surgeons in preserving the facial nerve and potentially contribute to enhanced patient safety in the surgery.

  16. 75 FR 75936 - Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements; Research Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-07

    ... Cigarette Packages and Advertisements; Research Report AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION... warnings and accompanying graphics to be displayed on cigarette packages and in cigarette advertisements... health warning statements appear on cigarette packages and in cigarette advertisements. Section 201...

  17. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating characteristics of electromagnetic, electronic, or... limits within which the system is designed to operate....

  18. An empirical evolutionary magnitude estimation for early warning of earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Da-Yi; Wu, Yih-Min; Chin, Tai-Lin

    2017-03-01

    The earthquake early warning (EEW) system is difficult to provide consistent magnitude estimate in the early stage of an earthquake occurrence because only few stations are triggered and few seismic signals are recorded. One of the feasible methods to measure the size of earthquakes is to extract amplitude parameters using the initial portion of the recorded waveforms after P-wave arrival. However, for a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw > 7.0), the time to complete the whole ruptures resulted from the corresponding fault may be very long. The magnitude estimations may not be correctly predicted by the initial portion of the seismograms. To estimate the magnitude of a large earthquake in real-time, the amplitude parameters should be updated with ongoing waveforms instead of adopting amplitude contents in a predefined fixed-length time window, since it may underestimate magnitude for large-magnitude events. In this paper, we propose a fast, robust and less-saturated approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes. The EEW system will initially give a lower-bound of the magnitude in a time window with a few seconds and then update magnitude with less saturation by extending the time window. Here we compared two kinds of time windows for measuring amplitudes. One is P-wave time window (PTW) after P-wave arrival; the other is whole-wave time window after P-wave arrival (WTW), which may include both P and S wave. One to ten second time windows for both PTW and WTW are considered to measure the peak ground displacement from the vertical component of the waveforms. Linear regression analysis are run at each time step (1- to 10-s time interval) to find the empirical relationships among peak ground displacement, hypocentral distances, and magnitudes using the earthquake records from 1993 to 2012 in Taiwan with magnitude greater than 5.5 and focal depth less than 30 km. The result shows that considering WTW to estimate magnitudes has smaller standard deviation than PTW. The

  19. 21 CFR 201.63 - Pregnancy/breast-feeding warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pregnancy/breast-feeding warning. 201.63 Section...) DRUGS: GENERAL LABELING Labeling Requirements for Over-the-Counter Drugs § 201.63 Pregnancy/breast... during pregnancy or while nursing has been established for a particular drug product in a new...

  20. Heeding the warning signs: further displacement predicted for Afghanistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Schmeidl

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There is currently much evidence pointing to another wave of displacement likely to occur in Afghanistan. Ignoring these early warning signs and failing to act may mean paying a higher price in the future, both financially and in human terms.

  1. Public Health Measures: Alerts and Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews various reactive and proactive alert and early warning systems that can be used for the identification of emerging risks to food safety, both within the European Union and at the global level. Recent developments include the establishment of a unit dedicated to emerging risks at

  2. The new Euskalmet coastal-maritime warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaztelumendi, Santiago; Egaña, Joseba; Liria, Pedro; Gonzalez, Manuel; Aranda, José Antonio; Anitua, Pedro

    2016-06-01

    This work presents the main characteristics of the Basque Meteorology Agency (Euskalmet) maritime-coastal risk warning system, with special emphasis on the latest updates, including a clear differentiation on specific warning messages addressing sea conditions for navigation purposes in the first 2 nautical miles, and expected coastal impacts. Some details of the warning bulletin for maritime and coastal risk situations are also presented, together with other communication products and strategies used in coastal and maritime severe episodes at the Basque coast. Today, three different aspects are included in the coastal-maritime risk warning system in Basque Country, related to the main potential severe events that affecting coastal activities. - "Galerna" risk relates to a sudden wind reversal that can severely affect coastal navigation and recreational activities. - "Navigation" risk relates to severe sea state conditions for 0-2 miles, affecting different navigation activities. - "Coastal impact" risk relates to adverse wave characteristics and tidal surges that induce flooding events and different impacts in littoral areas.

  3. Drug safety and the impact of drug warnings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hostenkamp, G.; Fischer, K. E.; Borch-Johnsen, K.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To analyse the impact of drug safety warnings from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on drug utilisation and their interaction with information released through national reimbursement bodies. Methods Insurance claims data on anti-diabetic drug prescriptions in primary care in Germany ...

  4. 40 CFR 156.66 - Child hazard warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 23 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Child hazard warning. 156.66 Section 156.66 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) PESTICIDE PROGRAMS..., marketing, storage or use is remote (for example, an industrial use product); or (2) The pesticide...

  5. Scheme for evaluating a local queue warning system.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botma, H. & Oei, H.L.

    1977-01-01

    A method of evaluating an automatic queue warning system is outlined. The main object of the evaluation is to measure the effect of such a system on traffic behaviour and road safety, although the overall journey time is also examined. The chosen method of research entails before and after studies,

  6. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was

  7. Reactions to Graphic Health Warnings in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nonnemaker, James M.; Choiniere, Conrad J.; Farrelly, Matthew C.; Kamyab, Kian; Davis, Kevin C.

    2015-01-01

    This study reports consumer reactions to the graphic health warnings selected by the Food and Drug Administration to be placed on cigarette packs in the United States. We recruited three sets of respondents for an experimental study from a national opt-in e-mail list sample: (i) current smokers aged 25 or older, (ii) young adult smokers aged 18-24…

  8. Public Health Measures: Alerts and Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews various reactive and proactive alert and early warning systems that can be used for the identification of emerging risks to food safety, both within the European Union and at the global level. Recent developments include the establishment of a unit dedicated to emerging risks at

  9. Ecosystems for Early Warning: Potential Use of Bioindicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zommers, Z. A.; Sitati, A. M.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Bioindicators are biological processes, species or communities, which are used to assess changes in the environment or environmental quality. Theoretically, they could also be used to provide advanced warning of hazards. They are inexpensive, locally relevant, and can encourage stakeholder participation in early warning system development and maintenance. While bioindicators have been identified for environmental problems such as air pollution and water pollution, and have been used to assess health of ecosystems, little information is available on bioindicators for climate related hazards. This presentation reviews possible biodindicators for droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, based on the results of a literature review. It will also present results from a household survey of 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Indigenous knowledge offers a wealth of potential bioindicators; including animal and insect behavior, and plant phenology. Yet significant study is needed to verify these indicators and evaluate them against criteria such as specificity, variability, monotonicity, practicality and relevance. Bioindicators may not be specific to individual hazards and may provide limited advanced warning, as response often occurs after the actual onset of the hazard. Furthermore, indicators may become increasingly unreliable due to climate change itself. There is a need for a large-scale assessment of hazard bioindicators, which should also include forecasts of bioindicator change under global warming, and a cost-benefit analysis of the value of integrating bioindicators into early warning systems. Lessons can be drawn from ethnopharmacology. Coordinated research on this topic could contribute to the resilience of both ecosystems and human livelihoods.

  10. Evaluation of the Individualized Study Program: Early Warning System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunziker, Celeste M.

    The Early Warning System (EWS) of the Individualized Study Program (ISP) at the University of California, Davis, was evaluated. Disadvantaged students who have not met the university's entrance requirements are tracked by the EWS during their first year in order to identify academic problems and provide advising and support. Findings include: EWS…

  11. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeeyon Janet Kim

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

  12. Research of indoor smoke warning and air purification equipment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wangronglong; Zhaoyexing; Fuyunhua

    2015-01-01

    In order to reduce indoor smoke concentration and improve indoor air quality,we put forward the intelligent indoor smoke warning and air purification device. This device can quickly reduce the concentration of indoor smoke by the air purification and fire alarm function. It provides a suitable living environment for people.

  13. The Food Early Warning System Project in Somalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leblanc, M.

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes shortly the objectives of a Food Early Warning System (FEWS project, as well as its organisation. The specifie case of Somalia, where the project had to evolve in increasingly difficult situations, and the solutions used so as to preserve the output, are described.

  14. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was s

  15. Electronic gaming machine warning messages: information versus self-evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaghan, Sally; Blaszczynski, Alex

    2010-01-01

    Regulators have extensively used warning signs in many health domains to enhance knowledge and shift attitudes and behaviors to reduce associated harm. The effectiveness of these signs is influenced by their physical attributes and content. Gambling warning signs traditionally focus on the following: informing individuals of the potentially risky outcomes of gambling and the odds of winning, encouraging gambling within affordable limits, and advertising counseling services. The limited evidence suggests that warning signs for gambling attract attention and improve knowledge but are generally ineffective in modifying players' thoughts and behaviors. Therefore, the authors aimed to determine the optimal content of messages that would enhance responsible gambling practices. The authors conclude that, in contrast with signs displaying probabilities or informing players of the risks associated with gambling, signs designed to encourage players to reflect on, appraise, evaluate, and self-regulate their actions have greater theoretical and empirical support. The authors comment that warning signs should promote the application of self-appraisal and self-regulation skills rather than the simple provision of information on odds and probabilities to maximize their effectiveness as a public health tool.

  16. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was s

  17. Diabetes Drug Gets FDA Warning Due to Amputation Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... html Diabetes Drug Gets FDA Warning Due to Amputation Risk Canagliflozin tied to a doubling of amputations of legs, feet, agency says To use the ... to increase the risk of leg and foot amputations, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration says. The ...

  18. Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

  19. Scientists Warn of Possible Floods Caused by Melting Glaciers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    @@ Aresearch team led by LI Xin from the Cold &Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute under CAS recently called on the authorities to set up an early warning system for the possible floods due to glacial lake outbursts in China's alpine hinterland.

  20. A communication model for interlinking national tsunami early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lendholt, M.; Hammitzsch, M.; Esbri Palomares, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    The integration of national Tsunami Early Earning Systems (TEWS) to ocean-wide networks is a main objective of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission (IOC) tsunami programme. The intention is to interlink national TEWSs leveraging warning communication during hazards. For this purpose a communication model has been developed enabling an efficient message exchange within a centre-to-centre (C2C) communication in a system-of-systems environment. The model, designed to be robust and simple, is based on existing interoperability standards from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization of the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). For the exchange of tsunami warning bulletins the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is used. It supports geospatial referencing by addressing geocoded Points of Interests (POIs), Areas of Interest (AOIs) and Coastal Forecast Zones (CFZs). Moreover it supports hazard classification by standardized criticality parameters and the transmission of attachments, e.g. situation maps. The communication model also supports the exchange of sensor observations and measurements such as sea level data or earthquake parameters. For this purpose markup languages of the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) suite are used. Both communication products, warning bulletins and sensor observations, are embedded in an envelope providing addressing and routing information using the Emergency Data Exchange Language Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The communication model has been implemented in a first pilot based on Message Oriented Middleware (MOM). Implementation, test and validation was started in the European research project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) and is continued successively in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC). Stimulated by the concepts and results of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and based on its sensor integration platform

  1. Performance of Early Warning Systems on Landslides in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, W.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    We performed a reconnaissance about Early Warning Systems (EWS) on Landslides (EWSL) in the countries of Central America. The advance of the EWSL began in the 1990-ies and accelerated dramatically after the regional disaster provoked by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. In the last decade, Early Warning Systems were intensely promoted by national and international development programs aimed on disaster prevention. Early Warning on landslides is more complicated than for other geological phenomena. But, we found information on more than 30 EWSL in the region. In practice, for example in planning, implementation and evaluation of development projects, it is often not clearly defined what exactly is an Early Warning System. Only few of the systems can be classified as true EWSL that means 1) being directly and solely aimed at persons living in the well-defined areas of greatest risk and 2) focusing their work on saving lives before the phenomenon impacts. There is little written information about the work of the EWSL after the initial phase. Even, there are no statistics whether they issued warnings, if the warnings were successful, how many people were evacuated, if there were few false alerts, etc.. Actually, we did not find a single report on a successful landslide warning issued by an EWSL. The lack of information is often due to the fact that communitarian EWSL are considered local structures and do not have a clearly defined position in the governmental hierarchy; there is little oversight and no qualified support and long-term support. The EWSL suffer from severe problems as lack of funding on the long term, low technical level, and insufficient support from central institutions. Often the EWSL are implemented by NGÓs with funding from international agencies, but leave the project alone after the initial phase. In many cases, the hope of the local people to get some protection against the landslide hazard is not really fulfilled. There is one case, where an EWSL with a

  2. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J.

    2017-01-01

    Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use. PMID:28075420

  3. 30 CFR 77.1102 - Warning signs; smoking and open flame.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning signs; smoking and open flame. 77.1102... COAL MINES Fire Protection § 77.1102 Warning signs; smoking and open flame. Signs warning against smoking and open flames shall be posted so they can be readily seen in areas or places where fire...

  4. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ce Shang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

  5. Longer Term Impact of Cigarette Package Warnings in Australia Compared with the United Kingdom and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin; Borland, Ron; Yong, Hua; Cummings, Kenneth M.; Thrasher, James F.; Hitchman, Sara C.; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Hammond, David; Bansal-Travers, Maansi

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the effects of different cigarette package warnings in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom up to 5 years post-implementation. The data came from the International Tobacco Control Surveys. Measures included salience of warnings, cognitive responses, forgoing cigarettes and avoiding warnings. Although salience of the UK…

  6. 30 CFR 75.1103-4 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; installation; minimum requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-4 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; installation; minimum requirements. (a) Effective December 31, 2009, automatic fire sensor and warning device...

  7. 30 CFR 75.1103-3 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-3 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general. Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems installed in belt haulageways of...

  8. Site correction of earthquake early warning system in Ilan, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiao Chu, Hsu; Liang, Wen Kuo; Jyun Yan, Huang

    2015-04-01

    When large earthquake occurs, earthquake early warning (EEW) provides alerts to urban areas of the forthcoming strong ground shaking. Depending on the specific geometry of the epicenter and the strong motion network used in EEW, the warning time can be a few seconds to tens of seconds. This warning time can be extremely important since even a few seconds can be sufficient for pre-programmed systems to have emergency response. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) had already used network EEW system to predict intensity map. Due to leveling of intensity was roughly divided into seven grades according to peak acceleration (PGA) in Taiwan, the warning message is not cautious for company, home and school use, the accuracy of predicted PGA were discuss for our result. A practical site correction approach for EEW was constructed in this study. Period parameter (τc) and an amplitude parameter (Pd)from the initial 3 seconds of P waves were calculated after Wu et al.(2005) first for each site of Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) in Ilan, Taiwan for focal depths less than 35 km and magnitude Mw>=5.0. Two pairs of linear relations had showed in each station between τc, magnitude (Mw) and Pd, hypocenter distance (R) that could be corrected individually. Prediction results of PGA from site correction based ground motion prediction equation (Jean et al. 2006) indicated that the corrected parameters of EEW in this study had improved the accuracy of ground motion prediction. Which means reasonable site correction of each station was needed for EEW system. Key works: earthquake early warning, P wave, site correction

  9. Warning system for hydrogeological hazards in Campania (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biafore, Mauro; Cristiano, Luigi; Gentile, Salvatore; Gentilella, Matteo; Giannattasio, Maurizio; Napoli, Francesca

    2010-05-01

    Campania is the Italian region with the highest population density (419 inhabitants/km2). Almost 20% of its territory (13669 km2) is affected by significant hydrogeological hazards, with related loss scenarios in almost 12% of it. The most critical hydrogeological hazard scenarios are those triggered by extreme rainfall events with duration ranging from a few tens of minutes up 72 hours: flood loss scenarios are expected in catchments with spatial extent from a few Km2 up to 5000 km2; shallow landslides and mudflows are also triggered by rainfall events within a broad range of time scales. This study presents a warning system for hydrogeological hazards, which has been operating in Campania since 2005, designed for mitigating losses due to extreme rainfall events. The warning system is structured into two stages: the meteorological forecasting stage and the hydrological monitoring stage. In the first stage, after evaluating rainfall forecasts provided by numerical weather prediction models (with a forecasting time up to 48 hours), warning messages are issued to the local municipalities grouped in 8 warning zones. Critical rainfall events are identified by three different alert levels, according to their forecasted spatial and temporal extents, each corresponding to a category of expected hazard scenarios at regional level. During the second stage, the dynamic evolution of the hydrological events is monitored by a real-time network of river stage and rain gauges, which are employed to compute one or more precursors for each loss scenario. Loss scenarios have been classified according to the temporal and spatial scales of the corresponding precursors, in order to deal with the difficulties related to the occurrence of significantly different hazard scenarios during the same rainfall event. Three threshold values have been identified for each precursor, corresponding to given hazard and alert levels. As a precursor exceeds a threshold value, warning messages are

  10. Very Fast Characterization of Focal Mechanism Parameters Through W-Phase Centroid Inversion in the Context of Tsunami Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roch, Julien; Duperray, Pierre; Schindelé, François

    2016-12-01

    Most of the tsunami potential seismic sources in the NEAM region are in a magnitude range of 6.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.5 (e.g. the tsunami triggered by the Boumerdes earthquake of 2003 with Mw=6.9). The CENtre d'ALerte aux Tsunamis (CENALT), in operation since 2012 as the French National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) and Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP), has to issue warning messages within 15 min of earthquake origin time. These warnings are based on the seismic source parameters (Mw magnitude, focal depth and type of fault), which are computed by focal mechanisms and centroid inversion methods. The W-phase method, developed by Kanamori and Rivera, allows quick computation of seismic source parameters due to the early arrival time between P-waves and surface waves, and is therefore particularly useful for monitoring. We assess the W-phase method with 29 events of magnitude M_w ≥ 5.8 for the period 2010-2015 in the NEAM region. Results with 10 min of signal length are in good agreement compared to the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog.

  11. Laser warning receiver to identify the wavelength and angle of arrival of incident laser light

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair; Michael B.; Sweatt, William C.

    2010-03-23

    A laser warning receiver is disclosed which has up to hundreds of individual optical channels each optically oriented to receive laser light from a different angle of arrival. Each optical channel has an optical wedge to define the angle of arrival, and a lens to focus the laser light onto a multi-wavelength photodetector for that channel. Each multi-wavelength photodetector has a number of semiconductor layers which are located in a multi-dielectric stack that concentrates the laser light into one of the semiconductor layers according to wavelength. An electrical signal from the multi-wavelength photodetector can be processed to determine both the angle of arrival and the wavelength of the laser light.

  12. Quality of cyclone early warning services: a case study in remote off-shore island in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashrafi, Z. M.; Mahmud, S.; Mahbub, A. Q. M.

    2015-12-01

    Geographic location, the unique natural setting of the country and its tropical monsoon climate modify and regulate the climatic condition, makes Bangladesh more vulnerable to cyclones and storm surges. Previous studies have showed that 80-90 % of global losses and 53 % of total cyclone-related deaths worldwide, occur in Bangladesh and out of which, 42% of cyclone-caused deaths were recorded in the last two centuries. The Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) is a unique joint program under the initiative of Government of Bangladesh and Bangladesh Red Crescent Society that provides a robust cyclone early warning (CEW) system for the 13 coastal districts in Bangladesh. CPP ensures rapid dissemination of official Bangladesh Meteorological Department's CEW signals to these communities. However, inconsistent CEW services are reported in several of these coastal communities. This study offered the quality assessment of CPP CEW services in Nijhum Island, a highly populated remotely located off-shore island in Bangladesh. Primary rural appraisal (household survey, focus group discussion and expert interview) were used for field data collection and Likert scale, for data analysis. Study revealed that cyclone early warning signal dissemination were restricted to small area covering only 35 percent of the total population. Moreover, local inhabitants had very poor understanding about disseminated CEW signals (flag signaling system, signal number & severity) although CPP initiated several training program to build and raise awareness. Consequently, people remained inactive during cyclone and reluctant to seek shelter which resulted in lack of proper post-disaster management. Moreover, local people had concern regarding accuracy of CEW signals disseminated by CPP. To ensure last mile connectivity of CEW services, it is highly recommended that local people should be given more training and awareness on CEW signals and how to respond to the same.

  13. GEOFON, GITEWS and the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Hoffmann, T. L.

    2008-12-01

    After the Mw=9.3 Sumatra earthquake of December 26, 2004, which generated a tsunami that affected the entire Indian Ocean region and caused approximately 230,000 fatalities, the German government funded the German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) Project. The GEOFON group of GFZ Potsdam was nominated to develop and implement the seismological component of the GITEWS system. This poster presentation describes the concept of the GITEWS Earthquake Monitoring System (EMS) and reports on its present status and progress of implementation. The major challenge for an EMS within a tsunami warning system is to determine earthquake source parameters in terms of location, size and possibly rupture propagation as quickly as possible, in order to allow counter measures before a potential tsunami may hit coastal areas. Tsunamigenic earthquakes usually occur along subduction zones, which are often close to coastal lines. In the Indian Ocean this is particularly true for the Sunda Trench off the shore of Indonesia and the Macran subduction zone off the shore of Iran. For an Indian Ocean monitoring system where short warning times are a requirement, a dense real-time network of seismic stations in Indonesia is therefore essential. It must be supplemented by a substantial number of stations in other countries surrounding the Indian Ocean. International cooperation and real-time data exchange across political boundaries are essential for successful tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean region. Within the GITEWS project, up to 40 new broadband and strong motion stations are being installed in the Indian Ocean region until 2010. Up to 22 new stations are set up in Indonesia and another 18 stations distributed over Sri Lanka, Maldives, Yemen, Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar and Israel. Real-time communication is provided by private VSAT communication systems. Another challenging task within the GITEWS project is the design and implementation of efficient and fast acquisition

  14. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  15. Smokers’ and E-Cigarette Users’ Perceptions about E-Cigarette Warning Statements

    OpenAIRE

    Wackowski, Olivia A.; David Hammond; O’Connor, Richard J.; Strasser, Andrew A.; Delnevo, Cristine D.

    2016-01-01

    Cigarette warning labels are important sources of risk information, but warning research for other tobacco products is limited. This study aimed to gauge perceptions about warnings that may be used for e-cigarettes. We conducted six small focus groups in late 2014/early 2015 with adult current e-cigarette users and cigarette-only smokers. Participants rated and discussed their perceptions of six e-cigarette warning statements, and warnings in two existing Vuse and MarkTen e-cigarette ads. Par...

  16. A Threshold-based, on-site earthquake early warning approach for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Alessandro; Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2017-04-01

    A real-time strategy for a P-wave based, on-site earthquake early warning system has been developed and tested using the database of Italian earthquakes. The key elements of the proposed methodology are: 1) the real-time, continuous measurement of three peak amplitude parameters (the initial peak of displacement, Pd, velocity, Pv, and acceleration, Pa) along the vertical component of the P-wave signal and 2) their empirical combination to predict the ensuing Peak Ground Velocity at the same site. The observed parameters are compared to prior established threshold values and then converted into a single, dimensionless variable. A local alert level is issued at the recording site as soon as the empirical combination overcomes a given threshold. The three parameters are continuously measured along the recorded signals, starting from the P-wave arrival time, and progressively expanding the time window. A possible risk when using this approach is the inclusion of the S-waves in the analyzed P-wave signal portion, which may lead to an overestimation of the predicted ground shaking level. To minimize the S-wave contamination, an efficient algorithm for the automatic detection of the S-wave arrival time has been included. The algorithm is based on the real-time polarization analysis of the three-component seismogram and on the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) (Rosenberger, 2010; Amoroso et al., 2012) and is able to distinguish variations in the polarization of the original signal, and to discriminate the dominant P-wave signal from the arrival of later S-wave phases. The performance of the method has been evaluated by defining successful, missed and false alarms, and counting the relative percentage, after applying the approach to a testing catalog of Italian earthquake records. The database we used for the system testing and calibration consists of more than 200 Italian events in a magnitude range 3.5 SVD filtering. The proposed methodology provides more reliable

  17. Smokers’ and E-Cigarette Users’ Perceptions about E-Cigarette Warning Statements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivia A. Wackowski

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Cigarette warning labels are important sources of risk information, but warning research for other tobacco products is limited. This study aimed to gauge perceptions about warnings that may be used for e-cigarettes. We conducted six small focus groups in late 2014/early 2015 with adult current e-cigarette users and cigarette-only smokers. Participants rated and discussed their perceptions of six e-cigarette warning statements, and warnings in two existing Vuse and MarkTen e-cigarette ads. Participants were open to e-cigarette warnings and provided the strongest reactions to statements warning that e-liquid/e-vapor or e-cigarettes can be poisonous, contain toxins, or are “not a safe alternative to smoking”. However, many also noted that these statements were exaggerated, potentially misleading, and could scare smokers away from reducing their harm by switching to e-cigarettes. Opinions on the Food and Drug Administration’s proposed nicotine addiction warning and warnings that e-cigarettes had not been approved for smoking cessation or had unknown health effects were mixed. Participants perceived MarkTen’s advertisement warning to be stronger and more noticeable than Vuse’s. Care should be taken in developing e-cigarette warnings given their relative recentness and potential for harm reduction compared to other tobacco products. Additional research, including with varied audiences, would be instructive.

  18. Cannabis Users' Recommended Warnings for Packages of Legally Sold Cannabis: An Australia-Centered Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malouff, John M; Johnson, Caitlin E; Rooke, Sally E

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Although cannabis use creates health risks, governments have recently been legalizing either medical use or leisure use. These governments can mandate health warnings on cannabis packages. Prior research examined recommended warnings of cannabis experts. The aim of this study was to obtain suggested cannabis health and safety warnings from cannabis users. Methods: We used a media release, Facebook postings, and announcements in university classes to seek individuals who had used cannabis at least once according to their own report. Using online data collection software that keeps participants anonymous, we asked the individuals to suggest a warning that governments could mandate on cannabis packages. Results: In total, 288 users suggested warnings. Categorizing the warnings into content categories led to six warning topics: (1) risk of harm to mental health and psychological functioning; (2) risk of operating machinery while under the influence; (3) short-term physical side effects; (4) responsible use; (5) long-term negative physical effects; and (6) dependence, addiction, or abuse. The user-suggested warnings overlapped with six expert-recommended warnings identified in prior survey research and included two content areas that did not feature in expert-recommended warnings: short-term physical side effects and the importance of responsible use. Conclusions: The results are consistent with prior findings that some youths perceive cannabis use as potentially harmful. The current findings provide possible new content for warnings on cannabis packages.

  19. Human factors field evaluation of automotive headway maintenance/collision warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dingus, T A; McGehee, D V; Manakkal, N; Jahns, S K; Carney, C; Hankey, J M

    1997-06-01

    Three on-road studies were conducted to determine how headway maintenance and collision warning displays influence driver behavior. Visual perspective, visual perspective with a pointer, visual perspective combined with an auditory warning, discrete visual warning, and discrete auditory warning were assessed during both coupled headway and deceleration events. Results indicate that when drivers are provided with salient visual information regarding safe headways, they utilize the information and increase their headway when appropriate. Auditory warnings were less effective than visual warnings for increasing headways but may be helpful for improving reaction time during events that require deceleration. Drivers were somewhat insensitive to false alarm rates, at least during short-term use. Finally, and most important, driver headway maintenance increased by as much as 0.5 s when the appropriate visual display was used. However, a study to investigate the longterm effects of such displays on behavior is strongly recommended prior to mass marketing of headway maintenance/collision warning devices.

  20. Hazard warnings and responses to evacuation orders: the case of Bangladesh's cyclone Sidr.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Bimal K; Dutt, Sohini

    2010-01-01

    On 15 November 2007 Cyclone Sidr, a category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh. Despite early cyclone warnings and evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines dissemination of the warning, assesses the warning responses, and explores the reasons why many residents did not evacuate. Field data collected from 257 Sidr survivors in four severely affected coastal districts revealed that more than three-fourths of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders. Despite the sincere efforts of the Bangladesh government, however, lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures occurred. Field data also revealed several reasons why evacuation orders were not followed. The reasons fell into three broad groups: those involving shelter characteristics; the attributes of the warning message itself; and the respondents' characteristics. Based on our findings, we recommend improved cyclone warnings and utilization of public shelters for similar events in the future.

  1. Tsunamis detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Joseph, Antony

    2011-01-01

    The devastating impacts of tsunamis have received increased focus since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, the most devastating tsunami in over 400 years of recorded history. This professional reference is the first of its kind: it provides a globally inclusive review of the current state of tsunami detection technology and will be a much-needed resource for oceanographers and marine engineers working to upgrade and integrate their tsunami warning systems. It focuses on the two main tsunami warning systems (TWS): International and Regional. Featured are comparative assessments of detection, monitoring, and real-time reporting technologies. The challenges of detection through remote measuring stations are also addressed, as well as the historical and scientific aspects of tsunamis.

  2. Earthquake warning system for infrastructures : a scoping analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodsky, Nancy S.; O' Connor, Sharon L.; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Fogleman, William E. (GRIT, Inc., Albuquerque, NM); Vugrin, Eric D.; Corbet, Thomas Frank, Jr.; Brown, Theresa Jean

    2011-09-01

    This report provides the results of a scoping study evaluating the potential risk reduction value of a hypothetical, earthquake early-warning system. The study was based on an analysis of the actions that could be taken to reduce risks to population and infrastructures, how much time would be required to take each action and the potential consequences of false alarms given the nature of the action. The results of the scoping analysis indicate that risks could be reduced through improving existing event notification systems and individual responses to the notification; and production and utilization of more detailed risk maps for local planning. Detailed maps and training programs, based on existing knowledge of geologic conditions and processes, would reduce uncertainty in the consequence portion of the risk analysis. Uncertainties in the timing, magnitude and location of earthquakes and the potential impacts of false alarms will present major challenges to the value of an early-warning system.

  3. Seismic Activity: Public Alert and Warning: Legal Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zocchetti, D.

    2007-12-01

    As science and technology evolve in ways that increase our ability to inform the public of potentially destructive seismic activity, there are significant legal issues for consideration. Even though countries and even states within the United States have differing legal tenets that could either change or at least re-shape the outcome of specific legal questions that this session will be pondering, there are fundamental legal principals that will permeate. It is often said that the law lags behind society and in particular its technological developments. No doubt in the area of warning the public of impending destructive forces of nature or society, the law will need to do some catching up. The law is probably adequately developed for at least some preliminary discussion of the key issues. No matter the legal scheme, if there is a failure or perceived failure in the system to warn people of a pending emergencies, albeit an earthquake, tsunami, or other predictable event, those who are harmed or believe they are harmed will seek relief under the law. Every day there are situations wherein the failure to warn or to adequately warn is key, such as with faulty or defective consumer products, escaped prisoners, and police high-speed vehicle chases. With alert and warning systems for disaster, however, we have a unique set of facts. Generally, the systems and their failures occur during emergencies or at least during situations under apparently exigent circumstances when the disaster's predictability is widely recognized as less than 100 percent. The law, in particular United States tort law, has been particularly lenient when people and organizations are operating during compressed timeframes and their actions are generally considered necessary to address circumstances relative to public safety. The legal system has been forgiving when the actor that failed or appeared to fail was government. The courts have liberally applied the principal of sovereign immunity to

  4. Warning against the dangers of wildfires in the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mozny, M.; Bares, D.; Virag, M.; Stalmacher, J.

    2009-04-01

    Many fire risk models have been developed for various temporal and spatial scales and application purposes. The integrated warning service in the Czech Republic is used for wildfire risk assessment model of FDI (Fire Danger Index). The FDI model is being developed in the Doksany observatory based on evaluation of weather conditions. FDI model describes danger of wildfire for vegetation covered countryside. There are five levels of danger: 1 - very low risk, 2 - low risk, 3 - moderate risk, 4 - high risk, 5 - very high risk. Simply say higher index value, reflects to higher risk of wildfire. As input data, the model uses measured values from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute stations network as well as ALADIN's model predicted conditions. The modelling process computes upper soil profile moisture, surface moistening and the spreading speed of fire. Early warning system for wildfires prevention in the Czech Republic is used since 2006.

  5. Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2013-01-01

    rather than present specific estimates for these costs. Making the best use of environmental science and modelling helps to make environmental protection and precaution a priority. Producing cost estimates should not be left to economists alone, but should rather be seen as a starting point for a broader...... innovations whilst minimising harms. This chapter revisits some key environmental issues for which estimates of costs of inaction have been carefully developed over many years of research. The aim is to consider the methodological challenges involved in producing estimates that are credible and appropriate......The 2013 Late lessons from early warnings report is the second of its type produced by the European Environment Agency (EEA) in collaboration with a broad range of external authors and peer reviewers. The case studies across both volumes of Late lessons from early warnings cover a diverse range...

  6. Analysis of pilot warning indicator performance in terminal area traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruetenik, J. R.; Lange, W. R.; Thompson, J. H.

    1971-01-01

    Three pilot warning indicator concepts for collision hazard avoidance are analyzed using computer fast-time simulation. A hazard measure is defined based on a 1/2-g maximum horizontal acceleration, a maximum climb or dive angle of 10 deg for each aircraft, and a 20-sec warning time, through escape completion. The traffic model is based on flight tracks recorded in the Atlanta terminal area over an 11 hr period during August 1967. The basic PWI concept studied alarms on range to flashing beacons mounted on intruder aircraft as a function of relative azimuth and elevation. The alarm-hazard epoch ratio is about 17/1 to maintain the missed-alarm rate below 10%. Beacon vignetting or range-rate discrimination are shown to reduce the false-alarm rate by about 75%.

  7. The Forecasting and Warning System of Geological Disasters in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YaoXuexiang; XuJing

    2004-01-01

    Geological disasters such as landslide and mudslide can be caused by many factors. Collaborations among different governmental agencies and multi-disciplines are necessary to establish a forecasting and warning system of geological disasters ( FWSGD). A FWSGD in China has been in operation since June 1 , 2003 as a joint project between the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the Ministry of Land and Resources ( MLR). This system has successfully shown very good social and economic benefits. The temporal-spatial distributions of China geological disasters and their causes have been analyzed in this paper. The FWSGD is described and its possible existing issues are also discussed. Authors suggest a new approach to study these disasters from interactions of the earth systems. Finally, a monitoring, forecasting, warning and preventing system for geological disasters in China is proposed.

  8. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System for Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Brigandì

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall

  9. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  10. NEA Mitigation Studies for Short Warning Time Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbee, Brent; Syal, Megan Bruck; Gisler, Galen

    2016-01-01

    This talk describes current collaborative research efforts between NASA GSFC and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national labs (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) to design systems and frameworks for robust responses to short warning time near-Earth asteroid (NEA) scenarios, in which we would have less than 10 years to respond to an NEA on its way to impact the Earth.

  11. Connecting earthquake source products to local tsunami warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melgar, D.; Allen, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Issuing warning of a tsunami in advance of its arrival to the coastlines immediately adjacent to large earthquakes remains a challenging problem. The heterogeneous development state of regional geophysical monitoring infrastructure across subduction zones worldwide means that a flexible approach to warning, capable of ingesting multiple data types and earthquake source products, is the most appealing. We will present results from the study of 3 recent large events that have been observed with diverse geophysical measurements; the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki, the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule and 2014 Mw8.2 Iquique events. First, we will show that earthquake slip models derived from combination of land (GPS and strong motion) as well as off-shore (tide gauges, ocean-bottom pressure, and GPS buoy) can be coupled to tsunami propagation models to produce simulations that closely match the measured run-up at the local coastlines. Using these models as a baseline for validation we will demonstrate a methodology that takes advantage of simpler, but more readily available earthquake source products such as rapid point-source magnitude estimates from coastal GPS observations and regional moment tensors. We will show that while trading-off precision for speed, these simpler earthquake source models produce inundation forecasts reliable enough to be used for warning within minutes of earthquake onset. Most subduction zones around the world already have some geophysical infrastructure and are producing some form of real-time earthquake source product, our results strongly argue that by coupling these data products to tsunami propagation models local tsunami warning is possible at most subduction zones with already available infrastructure.

  12. Indications and Warning Analysis Management System IWAMS. A Design Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-03-01

    Narrative; any number of works concerning New Critics and New Criticism , a powerful move- ment in the literary world influential especially in the 1940...search for the secrets of life itself, But in some sense this dream of Al is the archetypal dream of much of contemporary inquiry. It is not to find a... literary theory .... We have not minimized the obstacles to effective warning analysis by the human -- there is ample discussion of these below -- but it

  13. Australia's double standard on Thailand's alcohol warning labels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Paula

    2013-01-01

    Since 2010, members of the World Trade Organization (WTO), including Australia, have opposed Thailand's proposal for graphic warnings on alcohol containers. This paper aims to provide an account of the arguments for/against Thailand and to examine the arguments' legal and political validity. This paper reviews primary WTO records in relation to Thailand's proposal to reveal the arguments for/against Thailand's proposal. The paper analyses these arguments in light of WTO cases to identify the legal strengths and weaknesses of Thailand's position. The paper then considers whether the attacks on Thailand by Australia are justified in light of the Australian Government's position on (i) alcohol warning labels in Australia and (ii) tobacco plain packaging. The legal arguments against Thailand are: only harmful alcohol consumption should be prevented; there is no evidence that graphic warning labels can reduce alcohol-related harm; the labels unnecessarily restrict international trade. There are some legal weaknesses in Thailand's proposal. Yet, Australia's opposition to Thailand cannot be justified whilst Australia is (i) mandating pregnancy-related alcohol warnings in Australia and (ii) defending its plain packaging law against similar WTO attacks. No WTO member is obliged to challenge another member for being non-compliant. The case tests the willingness of WTO members like Australia to respect the autonomy of other countries to pursue their public health goals and trial novel interventions. Australia's actions suggest it is willing to protect its alcohol industry at the expense of public health in Thailand. © 2012 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  14. Instrumental monitoring of lahars for warning purposes: new developments along the Colima Volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coviello, Velio; Capra, Lucia; Vázquez, Rosario; Márquez, Víctor H.; Cruz, Sergio

    2017-04-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for rapid flow-like landslides can be classified into two main types: advance- and event-systems. Advance EWSs predict the flow occurrence by monitoring the parameters that may lead to initiation conditions, typically rainfall. This kind of EWSs are prone to a high number of false alarms because they are strongly affected by uncertainties in both precipitation measurements and in the estimate of rainfall thresholds. Event EWSs are based on the instrumental detection of the flow when it is already in progress. Those systems can be particularly effective to protect vulnerable infrastructures such as communication routes that do not require an excessively long alert time. However, having a much smaller lead time than advance-systems, their effectiveness strictly depends on the possibility to perform accurate and rapid measurements and to automatically process, store and validate monitoring data, that is to integrate an effective warning algorithm. In mountainous regions, several instrumented catchments exist where debris flow monitoring is performed using stage sensors, video cameras, and ground vibration detectors (GVDs). For early warning purpose, the possibility to detect debris flows from a distance is an important advantage of GVDs. In addition, most monitoring devices need to be installed in the channel bed or very close to it, with consequent great danger to be destructed. Consequently, a growing number of monitoring systems of active basins integrate a linear array of GVDs distributed along the channel, in safe locations. A debris flow warning algorithm based on geophone data was recently developed and implemented in the Gadria testing field for EWSs, Northeastern Italian Alps. This algorithm uses the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) as warning parameter instead of a classical intensity/duration threshold. The event detection algorithm adopts a non-simultaneous triggering condition requiring that at least two geophones trigger in order

  15. Early Warning Indicators for a Financial Crises. The Case of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu SOVIANI

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the early signs in the economy that has the ability to predict that a financial crisis is due to happen because of the macroeconomic indicators deterioration and how other economic indicator signals the distress in the state of the economy. We specify the macroeconomic indicators we follow and we identify the symptoms associated with the associated disorder, as it is described by the economic literature as indicators that use to predict some of the internal crisis (currency, banking, balance of payment, all crisis at once. We see the dynamics of this indicators and we compare them with the the dynamics of the best leading indicators for a crisis, that were able to predict a crisis nationally, regionally or globally. We choose 7 early warning indicators that provided in-time valid signals about a crises in Romania, and we define a composite indicator for showing the distress of the economy (as each indicator can give a particular signal of distress, while the composite indicator shows the imminence of the Romanian Financial Crises of 2008-2010.

  16. Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željka Asanović

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to create an adequate early warning model for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The probability of banking crisis occurrence is calculated using discrete dependent variable models, more precisely, estimating logit regression. Afterwards, seven simple logit regressions that individually have two explanatory variables are estimated. Adequate weights have been assigned to all seven regressions using the technique of Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of this technique is that it takes into account the model uncertainty by considering various combinations of models in order to minimize the author’s subjective judgment when determining reliable early warning indicators. The results of Bayesian model averaging largely coincide with the results of a previously estimated dynamic logit model. Indicators of credit expansion, thanks to their performances, have a dominant role in early warning models for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The results have also shown that the Montenegrin banking system is significantly exposed to trends on the global level.

  17. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  18. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities’ preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities’ capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change. PMID:27649547

  19. Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-07-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  20. Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

  1. Neural network strategies for issuing flood warning alerts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahart, R.; Dawson, C.; See, L.; Wilby, R.

    2003-04-01

    Most neural network hydrological forecasting involves modelling standard combinations of traditional rainfall-runoff variables in a supervised learning environment. These computational solutions have to date produced reasonable approximations but various problems still exist in the manner of input and output data inadequacies and weak deterministic hydrological relationships. The supervised learning model also puts an arduous burden on the instructor mechanism which requires a comprehensive set of meaningful real-world input-output situations. It is argued that the information content on either side of the equation must be modified if such tools are to achieve improved performance and that alternative relationships might be used to build superior modelling solutions e.g. to predict Fourier Series Parameters instead of Measured Hydrological Variables. This paper thus compares alternative strategies that can be used to deliver neural network flood warning alerts based on a six-hour forecasting horizon for the River Ouse in Yorkshire - a river that experiences major floods. The first solution uses a standard neural network modelling procedure to predict river level outputs which are then classified into four flood alert codes: ALL CLEAR; FLOOD WATCH; FLOOD WARNING; SEVERE FLOOD WARNING. The other solutions use identical data inputs to predict a simpler output function that is easier to learn; comprising the four individual event codes modelled as a set of categorical entities. The non-standard approaches that are considered consist of: [i] single-winner, [ii] thermometer method and [iii] a self-organising map.

  2. Progress in developing an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, S.; Mooney, W. D.; Kelly, A.; Atwater, B.; Sipkin, S.; Petersen, M.; Hudnut, K.

    2007-12-01

    Nearly three years following the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, there is much progress to report on building a new Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS) which will provide tsunami early warnings and framework for disaster management and response systems. To date, the IOTWS has utilized the leadership and technical expertise of many countries including Indonesia, Thailand, India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, together with assistance from international partners. Inter-agency cooperation has combined expertise in a broad range of disciplines to accomplish several goals including: 1) developing infrastructures for both real-time analysis of seismic data and rapid communication and warnings (including the upgrade of several Indonesian seismic and GPS stations), 2) land use planning and community preparation aimed at minimizing damage and loss of life from future disasters, and 3) international support for logistics, communications, training, management and administration. Throughout the implementation of the IOTWS, a primary focus was placed on "in-country capacity building," so that individual nations can be self-sustaining in their efforts. We believe that this has been accomplished through extensive training sessions, workshops and site visits.

  3. An operational heat/health warning system in shanghai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Jianguo; Kalkstein, L. S.; Huang, Jiaxin; Lin, Songbai; Yin, Hebao; Shao, Demin

    . Previous research has noted that high surface temperatures within certain ``offensive'' air masses can lead to increased mortality. This study assesses the relationship between daily mortality rates and weather within the city of Shanghai, China, while introducing an operational heat/health warning system for the city. Using numerous meteorological observations, the spatial synoptic classification has been used to classify each summer day from 1989 to 1998 into one of eight air mass types for Shanghai. Through the comparative analysis of the daily air mass type and the corresponding Shanghai mortality rate, ``moist tropical plus'' (MT+), an extremely hot and humid air mass, was identified as an offensive air mass with the highest rates of mortality. Using stepwise regression, an algorithm was produced to help predict the number of excess deaths that will occur with each occurence of the MT+ airmass. The heat/health warning system was run experimentally in the summer of 2001 and illustrated that the use of a warning system can alert the city's residents of potentially offensive weather situations that can lead to a deterioration in human health.

  4. Strengthening flood warning systems: the benefits of encouraging social preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Seibert, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Flood warning and response have normally been focused on the technical aspects and disregarded the connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social dimensions. An increasing body of research, however, points at the importance of considering socio-hydrological aspects to improve flood damage mitigation. One of the key factors is the preparedness of the public and first responders during flood situations, which is influenced by many behavioural traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or denial. In this study, we investigate the impact of social preparedness on the efficiency of flood early warning systems by using the recency of flood experience as a proxy for social preparedness. To this end, we developed a stylised model and a synthetic data-set to perform a hypothetical analysis. The main findings point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially when the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. More specifically, efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings from this study provide insights into the importance of considering social preparedness in decision-making for disaster risk reduction.

  5. Airborne Turbulence Detection and Warning ACLAIM Flight Test Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannon, Stephen M.; Bagley, Hal R.; Soreide, Dave C.; Bowdle, David A.; Bogue, Rodney K.; Ehernberger, L. Jack

    1999-01-01

    The Airborne Coherent Lidar for Advanced Inflight Measurements (ACLAIM) is a NASA/Dryden-lead program to develop and demonstrate a 2 micrometers pulsed Doppler lidar for airborne look-ahead turbulence detection and warning. Advanced warning of approaching turbulence can significantly reduce injuries to passengers and crew aboard commercial airliners. The ACLAIM instrument is a key asset to the ongoing Turbulence component of NASA's Aviation Safety Program, aimed at reducing the accident rate aboard commercial airliners by a factor of five over the next ten years and by a factor of ten over the next twenty years. As well, the advanced turbulence warning capability can prevent "unstarts" in the inlet of supersonic aircraft engines by alerting the flight control computer which then adjusts the engine to operate in a less fuel efficient, and more turbulence tolerant, mode. Initial flight tests of the ACLAIM were completed in March and April of 1998. This paper and presentation gives results from these initial flights, with validated demonstration of Doppler lidar wind turbulence detection several kilometers ahead of the aircraft.

  6. The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-04-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  7. Marketing strategies and warning labels on children's toothpaste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basch, Corey Hannah; Rajan, Sonali

    2014-10-01

    The overconsumption of toothpaste has negative consequences, particularly for children. This study's objectives were to describe misleading marketing strategies used in selling children's fluoridated toothpaste and identify warning label characteristics. Two researchers independently coded the packaging from 26 over-the-counter toothpastes that are specifically marketed for children. Aggressive marketing strategies targeting children were identified: every toothpaste in this sample displayed at least 1 children's animated character, 50% had at least 1 picture of a food item, 92.3% stated they were flavored and 26.9% depicted a full swirl of toothpaste, directly contradicting dentist recommendations for young children. Further, on most toothpaste tubes, warnings regarding fluoride overconsumption for young children were only listed on the back and in very small font. Misleading marketing strategies are regularly used in selling children's toothpaste as if it is a food product, while warnings regarding overconsumption among youth are minimized. Dental hygienists are in an important position to help parents of young children implement safe oral care practices. Copyright © 2014 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

  8. LED-Based High-Voltage Lines Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eldar MUSA

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available LED-based system, running with the current of high-voltage lines and converting the current flowing through the line into the light by using a toroid transformer, has been developed. The transformer’s primary winding is constituted by the high voltage power line. Toroidal core consists of two equal parts and the secondary windings are evenly placed on these two parts. The system is mounted on the high-voltage lines as a clamp. The secondary winding ends are connected in series by the connector on the clamp. LEDs are supplied by the voltage at the ends of secondary. Current flowing through highvoltage transmission lines is converted to voltage by the toroidal transformer and the light emitting LEDs are supplied with this voltage. The theory of the conversion of the current flowing through the line into the light is given. The system, running with the current of the line and converting the current into the light, has been developed. System has many application areas such as warning high voltage lines (warning winches to not hinder the high-voltage lines when working under the lines, warning planes to not touch the high-voltage lines, remote measurement of high-voltage line currents, and local illumination of the line area

  9. Capacity Building for Caribbean Tsunami Warnings: A Regional Training Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, A.; Robertson, R.; Kong, L.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; McCreery, C.; Yamamoto, M.; Mooney, W. D.; Lynch, L.

    2007-12-01

    Between June 25 and June 30 the Seismic Research Unit (SRU) of the University of the West Indies (UWI) hosted a Caribbean regional training program in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings. A total of 43 participants from 21 countries and territories, representing meteorological, emergency management, and seismological institutions in the region, attended this training aimed at developing their understanding of the science of tsunamis, hazard and risk assessment, preparedness, education, and outreach, and operational best practices. As an outcome of the course the participants drafted six recommendations (outlined on the poster) that they felt were priority action items for expeditious realization of a Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System. The program was conducted under the UNESCO IOC banner in response to a call for such a training program at the Second Session of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS II), held in Cumanã, Venezuela, March 12-14, 2007. The majority of funding for the course was provided by the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (ODFA) of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Disaster Reduction Center of the UWI, and the US Geological Survey (USGS).

  10. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Schöne

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

    The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

    The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  11. Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance

  12. Study of Disseminating Landslide Early Warning Information in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koay, Swee Peng; Lateh, Habibah; Tien Tay, Lea; Ahamd, Jamilah; Chan, Huah Yong; Sakai, Naoki; Jamaludin, Suhaimi

    2015-04-01

    In Malaysia, rain induced landslides are occurring more often than before. The Malaysian Government allocates millions of Malaysian Ringgit for slope monitoring and slope failure remedial measures in the budget every year. In rural areas, local authorities also play a major role in monitoring the slope to prevent casualty by giving information to the residents who are staying near to the slopes. However, there are thousands of slopes which are classified as high risk slopes in Malaysia. Implementing site monitoring system in these slopes to monitor the movement of the soil in the slopes, predicting the occurrence of slopes failure and establishing early warning system are too costly and almost impossible. In our study, we propose Accumulated Rainfall vs. Rainfall Intensity prediction method to predict the slope failure by referring to the predicted rainfall data from radar and the rain volume from rain gauges. The critical line which determines if the slope is in danger, is generated by simulator with well-surveyed the soil property in the slope and compared with historical data. By establishing such predicting system, the slope failure warning information can be obtained and disseminated to the surroundings via SMS, internet and siren. However, establishing the early warning dissemination system is not enough in disaster prevention, educating school children and the community by giving knowledge on landslides, such as landslide's definition, how and why does the slope failure happen and when will it fail, to raise the risk awareness on landslides will reduce landslides casualty, especially in rural area. Moreover, showing video on the risk and symptom of landslides in school will also help the school children gaining the knowledge of landslides. Generating hazard map and landslides historical data provides further information on the occurrence of the slope failure. In future, further study on fine tuning of landslides prediction method, applying IT technology to

  13. Communicating tobacco health risks: How effective are the warning labels on tobacco products?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amandeep Chopra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Health hazards of tobacco are well known but only small numbers of tobacco users are fully aware of the harmful effects of tobacco. Warning labels on tobacco products are an effective way of communicating the consequences of tobacco use and bring about behavioural changes like quitting and reducing the tobacco consumption. So the present study was conducted to investigate the awareness and effectiveness of warning labels on tobacco products among health and non-healthcare professional of Barwala, Panchkula. Materials and Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional survey was carried out among 408 subjects who were randomly selected from different professional colleges of Barwala, Panchkula. Data obtained were anlysed using descriptive statistics and Chi-square test using SPSS 20.0. Results: Most of study participants has noticed the warnings on tobacco products and most of them believe that they could understand warning labels. More that 70% believe that warnings create awareness about health hazards of tobacco and help in reducing or quitting tobacco. Pictorial warning was found to be better as compared to text warning. Health professionals were able to assess pictorial warnings more correctly as compared to non-healthcare professionals. Conclusion: Warning labels on tobacco packs effectively inform people about adverse health effects of tobacco but the mandated warnings do not serve the desired purpose since they are not properly understood.

  14. Graphic warning labels on plain cigarette packs: will they make a difference to adolescents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCool, Judith; Webb, Lisa; Cameron, Linda D; Hoek, Janet

    2012-04-01

    Graphic warning labels and plain cigarette packaging are two initiatives developed to increase quit behaviour among smokers. Although a little is known about how adolescents interpret graphic warning labels, very few studies have examined how plain cigarette packaging would affect adolescents' perceptions of cigarette smoking and smoking behaviour. We explored how teens interpret and respond to graphic warning labels and the plain packaging of cigarettes, to assess the potential these strategies may offer in deterring smoking initiation. Twelve focus group interviews with a sample of 80 14-16 year old students from a diverse range of schools in Auckland, New Zealand were undertaken between June and August 2009. Textual analysis revealed that graphic warning labels may influence adolescents by reiterating a negative image of smokers. Graphic warning on a plain cigarette pack increased the attention paid to graphic warning labels and the overall perceptions of harm caused by cigarette smoking, and reduced the social appeal of cigarette smoking. This research offers evidence on how adolescents are appraising and interpreting graphic warning labels, and explores how dominant appraisals may affect the role graphic warning labels play in preventing smoking. Not only would plain cigarette packaging enhance the salience and impact of graphic warning labels, but it would potentially bolster the overall message that cigarette smoking is harmful. In the context of a comprehensive tobacco control programme, graphic warning labels on plain cigarette packaging present an explicit message about the risks (to health and image) associated with cigarette smoking.

  15. Smokers' recall of Australian graphic cigarette packet warnings & awareness of associated health effects, 2005-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quester Pascale G

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2006, Australia introduced graphic cigarette packet warnings. The new warnings include one of 14 pictures, many depicting tobacco-related pathology. The warnings were introduced in two sets; Set A in March and Set B from November. This study explores their impact on smokers' beliefs about smoking related illnesses. This study also examines the varying impact of different warnings, to see whether warnings with visceral images have greater impact on smokers' beliefs than other images. Methods Representative samples of South Australian smokers were interviewed in four independent cross-sectional omnibus surveys; in 2005 (n = 504, 2006 (n = 525, 2007 (n = 414 and 2008 (n = 464. Results Unprompted recall of new graphic cigarette warnings was high in the months following their introduction, demonstrating that smokers' had been exposed to them. Smokers also demonstrated an increase in awareness about smoking-related diseases specific to the warning messages. Warnings that conveyed new information and had emotive images demonstrated greater impact on recall and smokers' beliefs than more familiar information and less emotive images. Conclusions Overall graphic pack warnings have had the intended impact on smokers. Some have greater impact than others. The implications for policy makers in countries introducing similar warnings are that fresh messaging and visceral images have the greatest impact.

  16. False alarms and missed events: the impact and origins of perceived inaccuracy in tornado warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripberger, Joseph T; Silva, Carol L; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C; Carlson, Deven E; James, Mark; Herron, Kerry G

    2015-01-01

    Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow-up question--Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are--in part-a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can

  18. TIDE TOOL: Open-Source Sea-Level Monitoring Software for Tsunami Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, S. A.; Kong, L. S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.

    2012-12-01

    -series data in the GUI as well. This GUI also includes mouse-clickable functions such as zooming or expanding the time-series display, measuring tsunami signal characteristics (arrival time, wave period and amplitude, etc.), and removing the tide signal from the time-series data. De-tiding of the time series is necessary to obtain accurate measurements of tsunami wave parameters and to maintain accurate historical tsunami databases. With TIDE TOOL, de-tiding is accomplished with a set of tide harmonic coefficients routinely computed and updated at PTWC for many of the stations in PTWC's inventory (~570). PTWC also uses the decoded time series files (previous 3-5 days' worth) to compute on-the-fly tide coefficients. The latter is useful in cases where the station is new and a long-term stable set of tide coefficients are not available or cannot be easily obtained due to various non-astronomical effects. The international tsunami warning system is coordinated globally by the UNESCO IOC, and a number of countries in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, and Caribbean depend on Tide Tool to monitor tsunamis in real time.

  19. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  20. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

  1. Lack of pregnancy warnings on over-the-counter dermatologic products containing potentially harmful hydroquinone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bio, L L; Cies, J J

    2017-07-01

    To determine the presence of pregnancy warnings on over-the-counter (OTC) dermatologic products with hydroquinone, a potentially harmful ingredient. Data were obtained from the Food and Drug Administration National Drug Code Directory and Label Repository to identify OTC dermatologic products containing hydroquinone. Products were stratified based on pregnancy or general warning presence (WP) or absence (WA). Product characteristics were compared between groups: hydroquinone concentration, presence of external packaging, indication and warning statements. Of the 112 products studied, 21 had a pregnancy warning and 3 included a general warning against use: WP (n=24) and WA (n=88) group. External packaging was more prevalent in the WP group compared to WA (62.5% vs 29.5%, P=0.004). Majority of OTC dermatologic products containing hydroquinone did not have a pregnancy warning. This highlights the need for improved labeling and informs providers caring for pregnant women of OTC labeling limitations.

  2. Rotation of tobacco pack health warnings by the tobacco industry in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana I Andreeva

    2017-05-01

    Tobacco industry consistently overproduces packs with certain health warnings on tobacco packs to minimize the presentation of others. This might be caused by the industry's estimates of comparative potential impact various health warnings might have on users. To properly inform smokers of various aspect of tobacco-related harm, national legislation needs to require each health warning should appear on an equal number of packages.

  3. A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning

    OpenAIRE

    ALFIERI LORENZO; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

    2012-01-01

    Extreme rain-storms are known for triggering devastating flash floods in various regions of Europe and particularly along the Mediterranean coasts. Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are based on rainfall estimation, rather than on forecasts. As a result, warning lead times are bounded to few hours and warnings are usually issued when the event is already taking place. This work proposes a n...

  4. Pictorial health warnings on cigarette packs and the impact on women

    OpenAIRE

    Lorna Bittencourt; Person, Sharina D.; Regina Celina Cruz; Scarinci, Isabel C.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE : To analyze the association between the pictorial graphic health warnings on cigarette packs and their impact on intention to quit smoking among women. METHODS : Population-based cross-sectional study among 265 women daily smokers in the State of Paraná in 2010. The sample size was calculated using cluster sampling. Participants were asked whether they had seen any pictorial graphic health warnings in the past 30 days, whether these warnings made them think about quitting,...

  5. Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

    2015-04-01

    The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then

  6. Study on the algorithm of vibration source identification based on the optical fiber vibration pre-warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Hongquan; Ren, Xuecong; Li, Guoxiang; Li, Yonghong; Zhang, Changnian

    2015-06-01

    One of the key technologies for optical fiber vibration pre-warning system (OFVWS) refers to identifying the vibration source accurately from the detected vibration signals. Because of many kinds of vibration sources and complex geological structures, the implement of identifying vibration sources presents some interesting challenges which need to be overcome in order to achieve acceptable performance. This paper mainly conducts on the time domain and frequency domain analysis of the vibration signals detected by the OFVWS and establishes attribute feature models including an energy information entropy model to identify raindrop vibration source and a fundamental frequency model to distinguish the construction machine and train or car passing by. Test results show that the design and selection of the feature model are reasonable, and the rate of identification is good.

  7. ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning System Updates and Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, A. I.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm has been detecting earthquakes throughout California since 2007. It is one of the algorithms that contributes to CISN's ShakeAlert, a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed for California. Overall, ElarmS performance has been excellent. Over the past year (July 1, 2014 - July 1, 2015), ElarmS successfully detected all but three of the significant earthquakes (M4+) that occurred within California. Of the 24 events that were detected, the most notable was the M6.0 South Napa earthquake that occurred on August 24, 2014. The first alert for this event was sent in 5.1 seconds with an initial magnitude estimate of M5.7. This alert provided approximately 8 seconds of warning of the impending S-wave arrival to the city of San Francisco. The magnitude estimate increased to the final value of M6.0 within 15 seconds of the initial alert. One of the two events that were not detected by ElarmS occurred within 30 seconds of the M6.0 Napa mainshock. The two other missed events occurred offshore in a region with sparse station coverage in the Eureka area. Since its inception, ElarmS has evolved and adapted to meet new challenges. On May 30, 2015, an extraordinarily deep (678km) M7.8 teleseism in Japan generated 5 false event detections for earthquakes greater than M4 within a minute due to the simultaneous arrival of the P-waves at stations throughout California. In order to improve the speed and accuracy of the ElarmS detections, we are currently exploring new methodologies to quickly evaluate incoming triggers from individual stations. Rapidly determining whether or not a trigger at a given station is due to a local earthquake or some other source (such as a distant teleseism) could dramatically increase the confidence in individual triggers and reduce false alerts.

  8. Refining Prescription Warning Labels Using Patient Feedback: A Qualitative Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olayinka O Shiyanbola

    Full Text Available The complexity of written medication information hinders patients' understanding and leads to patient misuse of prescribed medications. Incorporating patient feedback in designing prescription warning labels (PWLs is crucial in enhancing patient comprehension of medication warning instructions. This qualitative study explored patient feedback on five newly designed PWLs. In-depth semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with 21 patients, who were 18 years and older, spoke English, and took a prescription medication. These patients were shown different variations of the five most commonly used PWLs-Take with Food, Do not Drink Alcohol, Take with a Full glass of Water, Do not Chew or Break, and Protect from Sunlight. The 60-minute interviews explored feedback on patient comprehension of the PWL instructions and their suggestions for improving the clarity of the PWLs. At the end of the interview, patient self-reported socio-demographic information was collected with a 3-minute survey and a brief health literacy assessment was completed using the Newest Vital Sign. Twenty-one patients completed the interviews. Most patients were female (n = 15, 71.4% with ages ranging from 23 to 66 years old (mean: 47.6 ± 13.3. The mean health literacy score was 2.4 on a scale of 0-6. Qualitative content analysis based on the text, pictures, and placement of the PWLs on the pill bottle showed preferences for including 'WARNING' on the PWL to create alertness, inclusion of a picture together with the text, yellow color highlighting behind the text, and placement of the PWL on the front of the pill bottle. Although patients had positive opinions of the redesigned PWLs, patients wanted further improvements to the content and design of the PWLs for enhanced clarity and understandability.

  9. World Antimalarial Resistance Network (WARN IV: Clinical pharmacology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbotosho Grace O

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A World Antimalarial Resistance Network (WARN database has the potential to improve the treatment of malaria, through informing current drug selection and use and providing a prompt warning of when treatment policies need changing. This manuscript outlines the contribution and structure of the clinical pharmacology component of this database. The determinants of treatment response are multi-factorial, but clearly providing adequate blood concentrations is pivotal to curing malaria. The ability of available antimalarial pharmacokinetic data to inform optimal dosing is constrained by the small number of patients studied, with even fewer (if any studies conducted in the most vulnerable populations. There are even less data relating blood concentration data to the therapeutic response (pharmacodynamics. By pooling all available pharmacokinetic data, while paying careful attention to the analytical methodologies used, the limitations of small (and thus underpowered individual studies may be overcome and factors that contribute to inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic parameters defined. Key variables for pharmacokinetic studies are defined in terms of patient (or study subject characteristics, the formulation and route of administration of the antimalarial studied, the sampling and assay methodology, and the approach taken to data analysis. Better defining these information needs and criteria of acceptability of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD studies should contribute to improving the quantity, relevance and quality of these studies. A better understanding of the pharmacokinetic properties of antimalarials and a more clear definition of what constitutes "therapeutic drug levels" would allow more precise use of the term "antimalarial resistance", as it would indicate when treatment failure is not caused by intrinsic parasite resistance but is instead the result of inadequate drug levels. The clinical pharmacology component

  10. CONCEPTUAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PACIFIC, ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEMS FOR CANADA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.S. Murty

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Canada has coastlines on three of the four oceans on the globe, namely, the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans. The Pacific and Atlantic oceans are connected to the Arctic Ocean in the north, but still they are three distinct oceans, and need three individual tsunami warning systems. Tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are not as well documented as in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. From what is known, tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are rare and probably are small in amplitude. Because of very low population density, around the Canadian Arctic, at present, there is no priority for a tsunami warning system for Arctic Canada. For the Pacific Ocean, a tsunami warning system is in existence since 1948. In at least one sense, the warning aspects of the tsunami warning system for the Pacific coast of Canada, is relatively simple and straight forward, because it involves only the federal government (PSEPC and the provincial government of British Columbia (PEP. For the Atlantic Ocean, A tsunami warning system is now being established. The warning aspects will be some what more complex for eastern Canada, since it not only involves the federal government, but also five provinces, namely, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Quebec. The Alaska tsunami warning center (ATWC in Palmer, Alaska, provides tsunami warnings for both Pacific and Atlantic Canada.

  11. Is More Better? — Night Vision Enhancement System’s Pedestrian Warning Modes and Older Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Timothy; He, Yefei; Roe, Cheryl; Schnell, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Pedestrian fatalities as a result of vehicle collisions are much more likely to happen at night than during day time. Poor visibility due to darkness is believed to be one of the causes for the higher vehicle collision rate at night. Existing studies have shown that night vision enhancement systems (NVES) may improve recognition distance, but may increase drivers’ workload. The use of automatic warnings (AW) may help minimize workload, improve performance, and increase safety. In this study, we used a driving simulator to examine performance differences of a NVES with six different configurations of warning cues, including: visual, auditory, tactile, auditory and visual, tactile and visual, and no warning. Older drivers between the ages of 65 and 74 participated in the study. An analysis based on the distance to pedestrian threat at the onset of braking response revealed that tactile and auditory warnings performed the best, while visual warnings performed the worst. When tactile or auditory warnings were presented in combination with visual warning, their effectiveness decreased. This result demonstrated that, contrary to general sense regarding warning systems, multi-modal warnings involving visual cues degraded the effectiveness of NVES for older drivers. PMID:21050616

  12. The Construction of Early-warning Index System in Regional Circular Economy of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang Yanqing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the model of early warning system for circular economy development system was studied, the early-warning system for circular economy provides a quantitative model to support the pollution control. Specifically, this paper built an early warning index system of regional circular economy, and put forward the measure model for the development of circular economy. In addition, this paper constructed prediction model of the circulation economy development. Finally, by the proposed early warning model, this paper analysed the circular economy of Henan province and targeted policy suggestions were put forward for the construction of circular economy of Henan province.

  13. A European precipitation index for extreme rain‐storm and flash flood early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alfieri, L; Thielen, J

    2015-01-01

    .... Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are still based on rainfall measurements from rain gauges...

  14. 76 FR 67197 - Small Entity Compliance Guide: Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-31

    ... Cigarette Packages and Advertisements; Availability; Correction AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS... of a guidance for industry entitled ``Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements...

  15. On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economou, T; Stephenson, D B; Rougier, J C; Neal, R A; Mylne, K R

    2016-10-01

    Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

  16. On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economou, T.; Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

    2016-10-01

    Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

  17. Geoethical issues involved in Tsunami Warning System concepts and operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Tinti, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    The main goal of a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) is to mitigate the effect of an incoming tsunami by alerting coastal population early enough to allow people to evacuate safely from inundation zones. Though this representation might seem oversimplified, nonetheless, achieving successfully this goal requires a positive synergy of geoscience, communication, emergency management, technology, education, social sciences, politics. Geoethical issues arise always when there is an interaction between geoscience and society, and TWS is a paradigmatic case where interaction is very strong and is made critical because a) the formulation of the tsunami alert has to be made in a time as short as possible and therefore on uncertain data, and b) any evaluation error (underestimation or overestimation) can lead to serious (and sometimes catastrophic) consequences involving wide areas and a large amount of population. From the geoethical point of view three issues are critical: how to (i) combine forecasts and uncertainties reasonably and usefully, (ii) cope and possibly solve the dilemma whether it is better over-alerting or under-alerting population and (iii) deal with responsibility and liability of geoscientists, TWS operators, emergency operators and coastal population. The discussion will be based on the experience of the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center (HL-NTWC, Greece), which operates on 24/7 basis as a special unit of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, and acts also as Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) in the framework of the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) of the IOC/UNESCO. Since August 2012, when HL-NTWC was officially declared as operational, 14 tsunami warning messages have been disseminated to a large number of subscribers after strong submarine earthquakes occurring in Greece and elsewhere in the eastern Mediterranean. It is recognized that the alerting process

  18. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  19. Nowcasting, forecasting and warning for ionospheric propagation: supporting databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Jakowski

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The use of data is essential in the context of nowcasting, forecasting and warning of ionospheric propagation conditions, with roles to play in the development, evaluation and operation of models and services. Descriptions are given of three databases that have been established in the course of the COST 271 Action: a database of prompt ionospheric soundings, an extension to a database generated by the EISCAT incoherent scatter radars, and a database intended to facilitate evaluation of TEC estimation methods. Each database includes some background information, a description of the contents and interface, and instructions as to how to gain access to it.

  20. Predictions of flood warning threshold exceedance computed with logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diomede, Tommaso; Marsigli, Chiara; Stefania Tesini, Maria

    2017-04-01

    A method based on logistic regression is proposed for the prediction of river level threshold exceedance at different lead times (from +6h up to +42h). The aim of the study is to provide a valuable tool for the issue of warnings by the authority responsible of public safety in case of flood. The role of different precipitation periods as predictors for the exceedance of a fixed river level has been investigated, in order to derive significant information for flood forecasting. Based on catchment-averaged values, a separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" rainfall amounts as independent variables is attempted. In particular, the following flood-related precipitation periods have been considered: (i) the period from 1 to n days before the forecast issue time, which may be relevant for the soil saturation ("state of the catchment"), (ii) the last 24 hours, which may be relevant for the current water level in the river ("state of the river"), and (iii) the period from 0 to x hours in advance with respect to the forecast issue time, when the flood-triggering precipitation generally occurs ("state of the atmosphere"). Several combinations and values of these predictors have been tested to optimise the method implementation. In particular, the period for the precursor antecedent precipitation ranges between 5 and 45 days; the current "state of the river" can be represented by the last 24-h precipitation or, as alternative, by the current river level. The flood-triggering precipitation has been cumulated over the next 18-42 hours, or the previous 6-12h, according to the forecast lead time. The proposed approach requires a specific implementation of logistic regression for each river section and warning threshold. The method performance has been evaluated over several catchments in the Emilia-Romagna Region, northern Italy, which dimensions range from 100 to 1000 km2. A statistical analysis in terms of false alarms, misses and related scores was carried out by using

  1. 49 CFR 234.9 - Grade crossing signal system failure reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Grade crossing signal system failure reports. 234... PLANS Reports and Plans § 234.9 Grade crossing signal system failure reports. Each railroad shall report to FRA within 15 days each activation failure of a highway-rail grade crossing warning system....

  2. Adapting ElarmS Earthquake Early Warnings for Cascadia: Development and Testing of ShakeAlerts in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartog, J. R.; Kress, V. C.; Thomas, T.; Malone, S. D.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2013-12-01

    As a first step in establishing an earthquake early warning system in Cascadia, we have installed the ElarmS component of the ShakeAlert system at the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. In Cascadia our initial focus is primarily on the development of a seismo-geodetic-based real-time finite fault rupture algorithm to detect and characterize a large plate-boundary rupture in progress (see Crowell et. al., this session). In this regard the goal of the purely seismic-data-based ElarmS implementation is to 'trigger' the finite fault rupture algorithm. At the same time, however, the Cascadian ElarmS will also produce warnings for smaller onshore crustal earthquakes. While warnings from these smaller and closer earthquakes will provide shorter warning times for communities, and for less dramatic earthquakes, we intend to use them for educational purposes, and to coordinate with our regional and collaborating partners. They will also help to guide us to shorten data latencies and learn where additional instrumentation is most needed to increase performance. The accuracy of ElarmS in Cascadia is another major concern, because the current ElarmS model presumes an initial focal depth for earthquakes of 8 km based on California experience, while in Cascadia earthquakes of major concern may be as deep as 50 km, and/or occur beyond the western fringe of the seismic network. To this purpose our testing protocol is aimed at determining what changes are required to ensure top performance of an ElarmS-based warning system in Cascadia. Because of Cascadia's relatively low seismicity rate, and the paucity of data from plate boundary earthquakes there of any size, we have prioritized the development of a test system. The test system permits us to: 1) replay segments of actual seismic waveform data recorded from the PNSN and contributing seismic network stations to represent both earthquakes and noise conditions, and 2) broadcast synthetic data into the system to simulate signals we

  3. A Warning System for Overspeed at the Corner Using Visible Light Based Road-To-Vehicle Communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuniyoshi Okuda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available When a car enters a corner with over speed, it rises the accident risk higher. To warn the risk and urging the caution to drivers, many of the accident-prone corners have warning rights. The driver can decelerate the car smoothly and pass through the corner safety by those devices. However, appropriate speed for each corner is different by curvature of the corner and characteristics of the vehicle. The driver has to suppose the safe speed for every corner only by experience, usually. Of course too much slow causes traffic jam. Especially at the first road in the first place for the driver, it is difficult to suppose the curvatures of the corners. Then, we propose a visible light communication system so that the warning lights in the corner send appropriate warning information. Visible light communication transmits a signal by blinking the light. One of the characteristics of visible light communication is that it can use existing lighting equipment as a transmitter. In our system, we can distribute the warning information to the driver using the visible light communication. Though the curvature(R:radious of the corner does not change, the speed of each vehicle to approach the corner always to different. Focusing the distance from the corner to the car, we consider a communication system to send different kind of information according to that distance. If the distance is enough long, the driver has a plenty of time to decelerate the vehicle. The more the distance becomes short, the more the driver is required rapid deceleration. Therefore, to distribute the appropriate warning information to the driver, dividing the distance from the corner into some areas, we make the system to send different information in each area. Generally in communication system, modulation primarily changes the amplitude, phase or frequency. In visible light communication, change of the amplitude changes the brightness, which causes flickering that burdens the drivers

  4. Volcano Monitoring and Early Warning on MT Etna, Italy, Using Volcanic Tremor - Methods and Technical Aspects

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Agostino, Marcello; Di Grazia, Giuseppe; Ferrari, Ferruccio; Langer, Horst; Messina, Alfio; Reitano, Danilo; Spampinato, Salvatore

    2013-04-01

    Recent activity on Mt Etna was characterized by 25 lava fountains occurred on Mt Etna in 2011 and the first semester of 2012. In summer 2012 volcanic activity in a milder form was noticed within the Bocca Nuova crater, before it came to an essential halt in August 2012. Together with previous unrests (e. g., in 2007-08) these events offer rich material for testing automatic data processing and alert issue in the context of volcano monitoring. Our presentation focuses on the seismic background radiation - volcanic tremor - which has a key role in the surveillance of Mt Etna. From 2006 on a multi-station alert system exploiting STA/LTA ratios, has been established in the INGV operative centre of Catania. Besides, also the frequency content has been found to change correspondingly to the type of volcanic activity, and can thus be exploited for warning purposes. We apply Self Organizing Maps and Fuzzy Clustering which offer an efficient way to visualize signal characteristics and its development with time. These techniques allow to identify early stages of eruptive events and automatically flag a critical status before this becomes evident in conventional monitoring techniques. Changes of tremor characteristics are related to the position of the source of the signal. Given the dense seismic network we can base the location of the sources on distribution of the amplitudes across the network. The locations proved to be extremely useful for warning throughout both a flank eruption in 2008 as well as the 2011 lava fountains. During all these episodes a clear migration of tremor sources towards the eruptive centres was revealed in advance. The location of the sources completes the picture of an imminent volcanic unrest and corroborates early warnings flagged by the changes of signal characteristics. Automatic real time data processing poses high demands on computational efficiency, robustness of the methods and stability of data acquisition. The amplitude based multi

  5. Accuracy of WAAS-Enabled GPS-RF Warning Signals When Crossing a Terrestrial Geofence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay M. Grayson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Geofences are virtual boundaries based on geographic coordinates. When combined with global position system (GPS, or more generally global navigation satellite system (GNSS transmitters, geofences provide a powerful tool for monitoring the location and movements of objects of interest through proximity alarms. However, the accuracy of geofence alarms in GNSS-radio frequency (GNSS-RF transmitter receiver systems has not been tested. To achieve these goals, a cart with a GNSS-RF locator was run on a straight path in a balanced factorial experiment with three levels of cart speed, three angles of geofence intersection, three receiver distances from the track, and three replicates. Locator speed, receiver distance and geofence intersection angle all affected geofence alarm accuracy in an analysis of variance (p = 0.013, p = 2.58 × 10−8, and p = 0.0006, respectively, as did all treatment interactions (p < 0.0001. Slower locator speed, acute geofence intersection angle, and closest receiver distance were associated with reduced accuracy of geofence alerts.

  6. Accuracy of WAAS-Enabled GPS-RF Warning Signals When Crossing a Terrestrial Geofence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grayson, Lindsay M; Keefe, Robert F; Tinkham, Wade T; Eitel, Jan U H; Saralecos, Jarred D; Smith, Alistair M S; Zimbelman, Eloise G

    2016-06-18

    Geofences are virtual boundaries based on geographic coordinates. When combined with global position system (GPS), or more generally global navigation satellite system (GNSS) transmitters, geofences provide a powerful tool for monitoring the location and movements of objects of interest through proximity alarms. However, the accuracy of geofence alarms in GNSS-radio frequency (GNSS-RF) transmitter receiver systems has not been tested. To achieve these goals, a cart with a GNSS-RF locator was run on a straight path in a balanced factorial experiment with three levels of cart speed, three angles of geofence intersection, three receiver distances from the track, and three replicates. Locator speed, receiver distance and geofence intersection angle all affected geofence alarm accuracy in an analysis of variance (p = 0.013, p = 2.58 × 10(-8), and p = 0.0006, respectively), as did all treatment interactions (p < 0.0001). Slower locator speed, acute geofence intersection angle, and closest receiver distance were associated with reduced accuracy of geofence alerts.

  7. Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooijdonk, van I.G.S.; Moene, A.F.; Scheffer, M.; Clercx, H.J.H.; Wiel, van de B.J.H.

    2017-01-01

    The evening transition is investigated in an idealized model for the nocturnal boundary layer. From earlier studies it is known that the nocturnal boundary layer may manifest itself in two distinct regimes, depending on the ambient synoptic conditions: strong-wind or overcast conditions typically

  8. Interelectrode distance and warning signal interval and the evaluation of clinical electrical shock

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duker, P.C.C.; Mulder, M.; Peters-Scheffer, N.C.

    2009-01-01

    Contingent shock 19 used oil a small scale for behaviors that may lead to severe damages to one's body or to others Research efforts focus Oil exploring variables that control the evaluation of electrical shocks This study focuses oil two practical questions. that is, whether the distance between th

  9. Data from ‘Critical Slowing Down as a Personalized Early Warning Signal for Depression’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolanda J Kossakowski

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We present a dataset of a single (N = 1 participant diagnosed with major depressive disorder, who completed 1478 measurements over the course of 239 consecutive days in 2012 and 2013. The experiment included a double-blind phase in which the dosage of anti-depressant medication was gradually reduced. The entire study looked at momentary affective states in daily life before, during, and after the double-blind phase. The items, which were asked ten times a day, cover topics like mood, physical condition and social contacts. Also, depressive symptoms were measured on a weekly basis using the Symptom Checklist Revised (SCL-90-R. The data are suitable for various time-series analyses and studies in complex dynamical systems.

  10. Early-warning signals (potentially) reduce uncertainty in forecasted timing of critical shifts in vegetation systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karssenberg, D.J.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Non-linear systems may undergo abrupt transitions as a result of a gradual change in system drivers. Such regime shifts, or critical transitions, have been described for a large range of spatio-temporal systems, including those studied in the social sciences, ecology, geology, and climatology. Regim

  11. Community participation in tsunami early warning system in Pangandaran town

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadian, Sapari D.; Khadijah, Ute Lies Siti; Saepudin, Encang; Budiono, Agung; Yuliawati, Ayu Krishna

    2017-07-01

    Disaster-resilient communities are communities capable of anticipating and minimizing destructive forces through adaptation. Disaster is an event very close to the people of Indonesia, especially in the small tourism town of Pangadaran located at West Java, Indonesia. On July 17, 2006, the town was hit by a Mw 7.8 earthquake and tsunami that effected over 300 km of the coastline, where the community suffered losses in which more than 600 people were killed, with run up heights exceeding 20 m. The devastation of the tsunami have made the community more alert and together with the local government and other stakeholder develop an Early Warning System for Tsunami. The study is intended to discover issues on tsunami Early Warning System (EWS), disaster risk reduction measures taken and community participation. The research method used is descriptive and explanatory research. The study describe the Tsunami EWS and community based Disaster Risk Reduction in Pangandaran, the implementation of Tsunami alert/EWS in disaster preparedness and observation of community participation in EWS. Data were gathered by secondary data collection, also primary data through interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. Research resulted in a description of EWS implementation, community participation and recommendation to reduce disaster risk in Pangandaran.

  12. Multi-parameter algorithm for Earthquake Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakhi Bhardwaj

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake Early Warning (EEW system is a real-time earthquake damage mitigation system. It detects, analyzes and transmits information of the impending event at the potential user sites. In the present study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-parameter-based EEW algorithm for accurate and reliable issuance of EEW. In the present study, not only the individual parameters such as maximum predominant period (, average period (τc, peak displacement (Pd, cumulative absolute velocity and root sum of squares cumulative velocity have been used to develop an algorithm but also various combinations have been attempted to issue alarm. The criterion for issuing warning is based on the alarm status of combinations of parameters at nearest four stations within selected epicentral distance of the event. It has been concluded that three parameter preference-based approach provides most efficient results at a time window of 4 s. The data-set for estimating various parameters required for multi-parameter algorithm has been taken from K-NET seismic array (Japan. The algorithm has been validated on the data taken from different regions. Based on the validation carried out using Indian and PEER-NGA database, the results revealed better performance of multi-parametric EEW algorithm.

  13. Superficial siderosis is a warning sign for future intracranial hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linn, Jennifer; Wollenweber, Frank A; Lummel, Nina; Bochmann, Katja; Pfefferkorn, Thomas; Gschwendtner, Andreas; Bruckmann, Hartmut; Dichgans, Martin; Opherk, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Supratentorial superficial siderosis (SS) is a frequent imaging marker of cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA). It is most probably caused by focal subarachnoid hemorrhages (fSAHs). Based on single-case observations, it has been proposed that such fSAHs might be a predisposing factor for future intracranial hemorrhage. Here we tested the hypothesis if a SS as a residue of fSAHs must be regarded as a warning sign for future intracranial hemorrhage. Fifty-one consecutive patients with SS and no apparent cause other than possible or probable CAA were identified through a database search and followed-up for a median interval of 35.3 months (range 6-120 months). Main outcome measures were rate and location of new intracranial hemorrhages. Twenty-four patients (47.1 %) had experienced any new intracranial hemorrhage, 18 patients (35.3 %) had an intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and in 13 of them (25.5 %), the hemorrhage was located at the site of pre-existing siderosis. Six patients (11.7 %) had developed a new subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), four of them at the site of siderosis. Patients with SS are at substantial risk for subsequent intracranial hemorrhage. SS can be considered a warning sign of future ICH or SAH, which frequently occur adjacent to pre-existing SS. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

  14. Interpretations of cigarette advertisement warning labels by Philadelphia Puerto Ricans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Nancy; Gilpin, Dawn R; Lenos, Melissa; Hobbs, Renee

    2011-09-01

    This study examined Philadelphia Puerto Ricans' interpretations of the Surgeon General's warnings that appear on cigarette packaging and in advertisements. In-home family focus groups in which participants were asked to comment on magazine cigarette advertisements showed a great variety of interpretations of the legally mandated warning labels. These findings (a) corroborate and add to research in public health and communications regarding the possibility of wide variations in message interpretations and (b) support the call for public health messages to be carefully tested for effectiveness among different social groups. The article's focus on Puerto Ricans addresses the problem of misleading conclusions that can arise from aggregating all Latino subpopulations into one group. The use of a naturalistic setting to examine interpretations of messages about smoking departs from the experimental methods typically used for such research and provides new evidence that even a seemingly straightforward message can be interpreted in multiple ways. Understanding and addressing differences in message interpretation can guide public health campaigns aimed at reducing health disparities. Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

  15. Early warning of changing drinking water quality by trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomperi, Jani; Juuso, Esko; Leiviskä, Kauko

    2016-06-01

    Monitoring and control of water treatment plants play an essential role in ensuring high quality drinking water and avoiding health-related problems or economic losses. The most common quality variables, which can be used also for assessing the efficiency of the water treatment process, are turbidity and residual levels of coagulation and disinfection chemicals. In the present study, the trend indices are developed from scaled measurements to detect warning signs of changes in the quality variables of drinking water and some operating condition variables that strongly affect water quality. The scaling is based on monotonically increasing nonlinear functions, which are generated with generalized norms and moments. Triangular episodes are classified with the trend index and its derivative. Deviation indices are used to assess the severity of situations. The study shows the potential of the described trend analysis as a predictive monitoring tool, as it provides an advantage over the traditional manual inspection of variables by detecting changes in water quality and giving early warnings.

  16. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

  17. A geomagnetically induced current warning system: model development and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, A.; Clarke, E.; Reay, S.; Thomson, A.

    Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC), which can flow in technological systems at the Earth's surface, are a consequence of magnetic storms and Space Weather. A well-documented practical problem for the power transmission industry is that GIC can affect the lifetime and performance of transformers within the power grid. Operational mitigation is widely considered to be one of the best strategies to manage the Space Weather and GIC risk. Therefore in the UK a magnetic storm warning and GIC monitoring and analysis programme has been under development by the British Geological Survey and Scottish Power plc (the power grid operator for Central Scotland) since 1999. Under the auspices of the European Space Agency's service development activities BGS is developing the capability to meet two key user needs that have been identified. These needs are, firstly, the development of a near real-time solar wind shock/ geomagnetic storm warning, based on L1 solar wind data and, secondly, the development of an integrated surface geo-electric field and power grid network model that should allow prediction of GIC throughout the power grid in near real time. While the final goal is a `seamless package', the components of the package utilise diverse scientific techniques. We review progress to date with particular regard to the validation of the individual components of the package. The Scottish power grid response to the October 2003 magnetic storms is also discussed and model and validation data are presented.

  18. Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design, Demographics, and Hazard Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Ronald L; Ash, Kevin D; Bowser, Gregg C

    2017-06-30

    Recent advancements in severe weather detection and warning dissemination technologies have reduced, but not eliminated, large-casualty tornado hazards in the United States. Research on warning cognition and behavioral response by the public has the potential to further reduce tornado-related deaths and injuries; however, less research has been conducted in this area compared to tornado research in the physical sciences. Extant research in this vein tends to bifurcate. One branch of studies derives from classic risk perception, which investigates cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors in relation to concern and preparation for uncertain risks. Another branch focuses on psychological, social, and cultural factors implicated in warning response for rapid onset hazards, with attention paid to previous experience and message design. Few studies link risk perceptions with cognition and response as elicited by specific examples of warnings. The present study unites risk perception, cognition, and response approaches by testing the contributions of hypothesized warning response drivers in one set of path models. Warning response is approximated by perceived fear and intended protective action as reported by survey respondents when exposed to hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. This study considers the roles of hazard knowledge acquisition, information-seeking behaviors, previous experience, and sociodemographic factors while controlling for the effects of the visual warning graphic. Findings from the study indicate the primacy of a user's visual interpretation of a warning graphic in shaping tornado warning response. Results also suggest that information-seeking habits, previous tornado experience, and local disaster culture play strong influencing roles in warning response. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Signal Words

    Science.gov (United States)

    SIGNAL WORDS TOPIC FACT SHEET NPIC fact sheets are designed to answer questions that are commonly asked by the ... making decisions about pesticide use. What are Signal Words? Signal words are found on pesticide product labels, ...

  20. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eveslage, Ingmar; Fischer, Joachim; Kühnlenz, Frank; Lichtblau, Björn; Milkereit, Claus; Picozzi, Matteo

    2010-05-01

    The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures (as we could proof during the L'Aquila earthquake) or technical systems and most recently for seismic microzonation. Nevertheless the main purpose SOSEWIN was initially invented for is the earthquake early warning and rapid response, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and processed within a station. Based on this, the network itself decides whether an event is detected cooperatively in a two-level hierarchical alarming protocol. Experiences and experiment results with the SOSEWIN-prototype installation in the Ataköy district of Istanbul (Turkey) are presented. The limited size of this installation with currently 20 nodes allows not answering certain questions regarding the useful or possible size of a SOSEWIN installation

  1. Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey : Status Update 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meral Ozel, N.; Necmioglu, O.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kalafat, D.; Yilmazer, M.; Comoglu, M.; Sanli, U.; Gurbuz, C.; Erdik, M.

    2012-04-01

    This is an update to EGU2011-3094 informing on the progress of the establishment of a National Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey (NTWC-TR) under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission - Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (IOC-ICG/NEAMTWS) initiative. NTWC-TR is integrated into the 24/7 operational National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC) of KOERI comprising 129 BB and 61 strong motion sensors. Based on an agreement with the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (DEMP), data from 10 BB stations located in the Aegean and Mediterranean Coast is now transmitted in real time to KOERI. Real-time data transmission from 6 primary and 10 auxiliary stations from the International Monitoring System will be in place in the very near future based on an agreement concluded with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) in 2011. In an agreement with a major Turkish GSM company, KOERI is enlarging its strong-motion network to promote real-time seismology and to extend Earthquake Early Warning system countrywide. 25 accelerometers (included in the number given above) have been purchased and installed at Base Transceiver Station Sites in coastal regions within the scope of this initiative. Data from 3 tide gauge stations operated by General Command of Mapping (GCM) is being transmitted to KOERI via satellite connection and the aim is to integrate all tide-gauge stations operated by GCM into NTWC-TR. A collaborative agreement has been signed with the European Commission - Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) and MOD1 Tsunami Scenario Database and TAT (Tsunami Analysis Tool) are received by KOERI and user training was provided. The database and the tool are linked to SeisComp3 and currently operational. In addition KOERI is continuing the work towards providing contributions to JRC in order to develop an improved database

  2. Key Parameters Estimation and Adaptive Warning Strategy for Rear-End Collision of Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Song

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The rear-end collision warning system requires reliable warning decision mechanism to adapt the actual driving situation. To overcome the shortcomings of existing warning methods, an adaptive strategy is proposed to address the practical aspects of the collision warning problem. The proposed strategy is based on the parameter-adaptive and variable-threshold approaches. First, several key parameter estimation algorithms are developed to provide more accurate and reliable information for subsequent warning method. They include a two-stage algorithm which contains a Kalman filter and a Luenberger observer for relative acceleration estimation, a Bayesian theory-based algorithm of estimating the road friction coefficient, and an artificial neural network for estimating the driver’s reaction time. Further, the variable-threshold warning method is designed to achieve the global warning decision. In the method, the safety distance is employed to judge the dangerous state. The calculation method of the safety distance in this paper can be adaptively adjusted according to the different driving conditions of the leading vehicle. Due to the real-time estimation of the key parameters and the adaptive calculation of the warning threshold, the strategy can adapt to various road and driving conditions. Finally, the proposed strategy is evaluated through simulation and field tests. The experimental results validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

  3. 32 CFR 644.531 - Warning to public of danger in handling explosive missiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Warning to public of danger in handling explosive... Contamination from Proposed Excess Land and Improvements § 644.531 Warning to public of danger in handling... of contaminants remaining on the land and the inherent danger of handling explosives or...

  4. Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

  5. [Research of early-warning method for regional groundwater pollution based on risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Li-Ping; Wang, Ye-Yao; Guo, Yong-Li; Zhou, You-Ya; Liu, Li; Yan, Zeng-Guang; Li, Fa-Sheng

    2014-08-01

    Groundwater is the main source of water supply in China, and China's overall situation of groundwater pollution is not optimistic at present. Groundwater pollution risk evaluation and early-warning are the effective measures to prevent groundwater pollution. At present, research of groundwater early-warning method at home and abroad is still at the exploratory stage, and the sophisticated technology has not been developed for reference. This paper briefly described the data and technological demand of the early-warning method in different scales, and the main factors influencing the early-warning results of groundwater pollution were classified as protection performance of geological medium, characteristics of pollution sources, groundwater dynamics and groundwater value. Then the main early-warning indexes of groundwater pollution were screened to establish the early-warning model of regional or watershed scale by the index overlay method. At last, the established early-warning model was used in Baotou plain, and the different early-warning grades were zoned by the model. The research results could provide scientific support for the local management department to protect the groundwater resources.

  6. 76 FR 70971 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Societal Response to Tornado Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-16

    ... Response to Tornado Warnings AGENCY: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). ACTION: Notice... examine the societal impacts of tornado warnings, specifically the methods of receipt, response, and the... Following a particularly deadly year of tornadoes in the United States despite the existence of adequate...

  7. 37 CFR 201.24 - Warning of copyright for software lending by nonprofit libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... software lending by nonprofit libraries. 201.24 Section 201.24 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights COPYRIGHT OFFICE, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS COPYRIGHT OFFICE AND PROCEDURES GENERAL PROVISIONS § 201.24 Warning of copyright for software lending by nonprofit libraries. (a) Definition. A Warning of Copyright for...

  8. 37 CFR 201.14 - Warnings of copyright for use by certain libraries and archives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... by certain libraries and archives. 201.14 Section 201.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights COPYRIGHT OFFICE, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS COPYRIGHT OFFICE AND PROCEDURES GENERAL PROVISIONS § 201.14 Warnings of copyright for use by certain libraries and archives. (a) Definitions. (1) A Display Warning...

  9. FloodAlert: a simplified radar-based EWS for urban flood warning

    OpenAIRE

    Llort Pavon, Xavier; Sánchez-Diezma Guijarro, Rafael; Rodríguez, Álvaro; De Sancho, David; Berenguer Ferrer, Marc; Sempere Torres, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In this work we present FloodAlert, a simplified flood Early Warning System [EWS] based on the use of radar observations and radar nowcasting to issue local flood warnings. It is a web-based platform and it is complemented with a flexible and powerful dissemination module.

  10. 49 CFR 176.325 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in... material. (b) A sign carrying the legend: FLAMMABLE VAPORS KEEP LIGHTS AND FIRE AWAY NO SMOKING must...

  11. 49 CFR 176.220 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... CARRIAGE BY VESSEL Detailed Requirements for Class 2 (Compressed Gas) Materials § 176.220 Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in any hold...

  12. 21 CFR 369.4 - Warnings suggested for drugs by formal or informal statements of policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Warnings suggested for drugs by formal or informal statements of policy. 369.4 Section 369.4 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS FOR HUMAN USE INTERPRETATIVE STATEMENTS RE WARNINGS ON DRUGS...

  13. A Microseismic Method for Dynamic Warning of Rockburst Development Processes in Tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Guang-Liang; Feng, Xia-Ting; Chen, Bing-rui; Xiao, Ya-Xun; Yu, Yang

    2015-09-01

    Early warning of rockbursts remains a worldwide challenge in rock engineering. In this work, a microseismicity-based method of rockburst warning in tunnels is proposed to warn of and reduce the risk of rockburst. The method uses real-time microseismic data and an established rockburst warning formula to provide dynamic warning of rockburst risk during excavation of a tunnel. The establishment of the rockburst warning formula involves several key parts. These include a rockburst database, selection of typical rockburst cases, functional relationships between microseismicity and rockbursts, optimal weighting coefficients, and dynamic updating. By using the proposed method, the probability of strain and strain-structure slip rockbursts of different intensity (extremely intense, intense, moderate, slight, and none) can be warned of in real time. The method has been successfully applied to rockburst warning in deeply buried tunnels at the Jinping II hydropower project (about 11.6 km in total for D & B tunnels). This success illustrates the applicability of the proposed method. In addition, it is found that during the rockburst development process, the microseismic eigenvalues for strainbursts are bigger than in strain-structure slip rockbursts of the same intensity.

  14. 40 CFR 82.110 - Form of label bearing warning statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... contrast are: black letters on a dark blue or dark green background, dark red letters on a light red... warning statement shall be the standard chemical name of the substance as listed in 40 CFR part 82... size for the warning statement on any alternative placement which meets the requirements of §...

  15. 76 FR 55332 - Federal Bureau of Investigation Anti-Piracy Warning Seal Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-07

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE 41 CFR Part 128-1 RIN 1110-AA32 Federal Bureau of Investigation Anti-Piracy Warning Seal Program AGENCY...- Piracy Warning Seal (APW Seal). The proposed rule will provide access to the APW Seal to all...

  16. 49 CFR 214.329 - Train approach warning provided by watchmen/lookouts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Train approach warning provided by watchmen... Protection § 214.329 Train approach warning provided by watchmen/lookouts. Roadway workers in a roadway work... or more watchmen/lookouts in accordance with the following provisions: (a) Train approach...

  17. 21 CFR 369.9 - General warnings re accidental ingestion by children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false General warnings re accidental ingestion by... OVER-THE-COUNTER SALE Definitions and Interpretations § 369.9 General warnings re accidental ingestion... possibility of accidental ingestion of drugs, it is not only suggested but is recommended that one of these...

  18. Desire versus efficacy in smokers' paradoxical reactions to pictorial health warnings for cigarettes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Romer

    Full Text Available Pictorial health warnings on cigarette packs create aversive emotional reactions to smoking and induce thoughts about quitting; however, contrary to models of health behavior change, they do not appear to alter intentions to quit smoking. We propose and test a novel model of intention to quit an addictive habit such as smoking (the efficacy-desire model that can explain this paradoxical effect. At the core of the model is the prediction that self-efficacy and desire to quit an addictive habit are inversely related. We tested the model in an online experiment that randomly exposed smokers (N = 3297 to a cigarette pack with one of three increasing levels of warning intensity. The results supported the model's prediction that despite the effects of warnings on aversion to smoking, intention to quit smoking is an inverted U-shape function of the smoker's self-efficacy for quitting. In addition, smokers with greater (lesser quit efficacy relative to smoking efficacy increase (decrease intentions to quit. The findings show that previous failures to observe effects of pictorial warning labels on quit intentions can be explained by the contradictory individual differences that warnings produce. Thus, the model explains the paradoxical finding that quit intentions do not change at the population level, even though smokers recognize the implications of warnings. The model suggests that pictorial warnings are effective for smokers with stronger quit-efficacy beliefs and provides guidance for how cigarette warnings and tobacco control strategies can be designed to help smokers quit.

  19. 76 FR 58301 - Proposed Extension of Existing Information Collection; Automatic Fire Sensor and Warning Device...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-20

    ... Sensor and Warning Device Systems; Examination and Test Requirements ACTION: Notice of request for public... Coal Mining. OMB 1219-0145 has been renamed Automatic Fire Sensor and Warning Device Systems... to a task in July 2011; OMB 1219-0073 subsumed Sec. 75.1103-5(a)(2)(ii) Automatic fire sensor and...

  20. Caution: Alcohol Advertising and the Surgeon General's Alcohol Warnings May Have Adverse Effects on Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blood, Deborah J.; Snyder, Leslie B.

    A study investigated the effects of the newly introduced Surgeon General's alcohol warnings and advertisements on college students. One hundred fifty-nine undergraduates in communication sciences at the University of Connecticut viewed slides of alcohol products, with or without advertisements and warnings. Following the viewings, subjects filled…

  1. 30 CFR 817.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND MINING ACTIVITIES § 817.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 817.11. The operator...

  2. 30 CFR 816.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-SURFACE MINING ACTIVITIES § 816.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 816.11. The operator shall—...

  3. Graphic Warning Labels Elicit Affective and Thoughtful Responses from Smokers: Results of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abigail T Evans

    Full Text Available Observational research suggests that placing graphic images on cigarette warning labels can reduce smoking rates, but field studies lack experimental control. Our primary objective was to determine the psychological processes set in motion by naturalistic exposure to graphic vs. text-only warnings in a randomized clinical trial involving exposure to modified cigarette packs over a 4-week period. Theories of graphic-warning impact were tested by examining affect toward smoking, credibility of warning information, risk perceptions, quit intentions, warning label memory, and smoking risk knowledge.Adults who smoked between 5 and 40 cigarettes daily (N = 293; mean age = 33.7, did not have a contra-indicated medical condition, and did not intend to quit were recruited from Philadelphia, PA and Columbus, OH. Smokers were randomly assigned to receive their own brand of cigarettes for four weeks in one of three warning conditions: text only, graphic images plus text, or graphic images with elaborated text.Data from 244 participants who completed the trial were analyzed in structural-equation models. The presence of graphic images (compared to text-only caused more negative affect toward smoking, a process that indirectly influenced risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk perception->quit intention. Negative affect from graphic images also enhanced warning credibility including through increased scrutiny of the warnings, a process that also indirectly affected risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk scrutiny->warning credibility->risk perception->quit intention. Unexpectedly, elaborated text reduced warning credibility. Finally, graphic warnings increased warning-information recall and indirectly increased smoking-risk knowledge at the end of the trial and one month later.In the first naturalistic clinical trial conducted, graphic warning labels are more effective than text-only warnings

  4. Regional Integrated Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Model for Geological Hazards Based on Logistic Regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Jing; YANG Chi; ZHANG Guoping

    2007-01-01

    Information model is adopted to integrate factors of various geosciences to estimate the susceptibility of geological hazards. Further combining the dynamic rainfall observations, Logistic regression is used for modeling the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences, upon which hierarchical warnings for rainfall-induced geological hazards are produced. The forecasting and warning model takes numerical precipitation forecasts on grid points as its dynamic input, forecasts the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences on the same grid, and translates the results into likelihoods in the form of a 5-level hierarchy. Validation of the model with observational data for the year 2004 shows that 80% of the geological hazards of the year have been identified as "likely enough to release warning messages". The model can satisfy the requirements of an operational warning system, thus is an effective way to improve the meteorological warnings for geological hazards.

  5. Predictors of compliance with tornado warnings issued in Joplin, Missouri, in 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Bimal Kanti; Stimers, Mitchel; Caldas, Marcellus

    2015-01-01

    Joplin, a city in the southwest corner of Missouri, United States, suffered an EF-5 tornado in the late afternoon of 22 May 2011. This event, which claimed the lives of 162 people, represents the deadliest single tornado to strike the US since modern record-keeping began in 1950. This study examines the factors associated with responses to tornado warnings. Based on a post-tornado survey of survivors in Joplin, it reveals that tornado warnings were adequate and timely. Multivariate logistic regression identified four statistically significant determinants of compliance with tornado warnings: number of warning sources, whether respondents were at home when the tornado struck, past tornado experience, and gender. The findings suggest several recommendations, the implementation of which will further improve responses to tornado warnings. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  6. Response time effects of alerting tone and semantic context for synthesized voice cockpit warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, C. A.; Williams, D. H.

    1980-01-01

    Some handbooks and human factors design guides have recommended that a voice warning should be preceded by a tone to attract attention to the warning. As far as can be determined from a search of the literature, no experimental evidence supporting this exists. A fixed-base simulator flown by airline pilots was used to test the hypothesis that the total 'system-time' to respond to a synthesized voice cockpit warning would be longer when the message was preceded by a tone because the voice itself was expected to perform both the alerting and the information transfer functions. The simulation included realistic ATC radio voice communications, synthesized engine noise, cockpit conversation, and realistic flight routes. The effect of a tone before a voice warning was to lengthen response time; that is, responses were slower with an alerting tone. Lengthening the voice warning with another work, however, did not increase response time.

  7. Geo-hazards risk zonation and warning system based on GIS in Anshan City of Liaoning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhishuang YANG; Mao PAN; Xiaopeng WANG

    2006-01-01

    Debris flow and Karst collapse are the main parts of geological disasters in Anshan, which have affected on the construction and development of the social economy of Anshan. In order to enhance the studies of rules of disaster and give scientific estimation and alarm ahead of schedule warning, we established the warning system of Anshan and investigated the corresponding software, which are based on the deep discussions about the crisis estimation and methods of prediction of disasters. In this paper, the foundation of model used in estimating the alarm ahead of schedule for disaster and the methods of appraisal for the alarm ahead of schedule are discussed. This system for warning and evaluating is the combination of the models of warning and GIS flat roof, with so many virtues, such as complete functions, convenience, applicability, which has considered the output of data, analyses of space, chooses of model, output of production, report of information for warning and the statements and help of system.

  8. NOAA/West coast and Alaska Tsunami warning center Atlantic Ocean response criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmore, P.; Refidaff, C.; Caropolo, M.; Huerfano-Moreno, V.; Knight, W.; Sammler, W.; Sandrik, A.

    2009-01-01

    West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakesoccurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are presented. Initial warning center decisions are based on an earthquake's location, magnitude, depth, distance from coastal locations, and precomputed threat estimates based on tsunami models computed from similar events. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of sub-sea landslides).The new criteria require development of a threat data base which sets warning or advisory zones based on location, magnitude, and pre-computed tsunami models. The models determine coastal tsunami amplitudes based on likely tsunami source parameters for a given event. Based on the computed amplitude, warning and advisory zones are pre-set.

  9. Diagnosis and Early Warning of Wind Turbine Faults Based on Cluster Analysis Theory and Modified ANFIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quan Zhou

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The construction of large-scale wind farms results in a dramatic increase of wind turbine (WT faults. The failure mode is also becoming increasingly complex. This study proposes a new model for early warning and diagnosis of WT faults to solve the problem of Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA systems, given that the traditional threshold method cannot provide timely warning. First, the characteristic quantity of fault early warning and diagnosis analyzed by clustering analysis can obtain in advance abnormal data in the normal threshold range by considering the effects of wind speed. Based on domain knowledge, Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS is then modified to establish the fault early warning and diagnosis model. This approach improves the accuracy of the model under the condition of absent and sparse training data. Case analysis shows that the effect of the early warning and diagnosis model in this study is better than that of the traditional threshold method.

  10. ECDC Round Table Report and ProMed-mail most useful international information sources for the Netherlands Early Warning Committee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijkerk, Paul; Monnier, Annelie A; Fanoy, Ewout B; Kardamanidis, Katina; Friesema, Ingrid Hm; Knol, Mirjam J

    2017-04-06

    The Netherlands Early Warning Committee (NEWC) aims to identify infectious diseases causing a potential threat to Dutch public health. Threats are assessed and published as (information) alerts for public health experts. To identify threats from abroad, the NEWC screens 10 sources reporting disease outbreaks each week. To identify the sources essential for complete and timely reporting, we retrospectively analysed 178 international alerts published between 31 January 2013 and 30 January 2014. In addition, we asked the four NEWC coordinators about the required time to scan the information sources. We documented the date and source in which the signal was detected. The ECDC Round Table (RT) Report and ProMED-mail were the most complete and timely sources, reporting 140 of 178 (79%) and 121 of 178 (68%) threats respectively. The combination of both sources reported 169 (95%) of all threats in a timely manner. Adding any of the other sources resulted in minor increases in the total threats found, but considerable additional time investment per additional threat. Only three potential relevant threats (2%) would have been missed by only using the ECDC RT Report and ProMed-mail. We concluded that using only the ECDC RT Report and ProMed-mail to identify threats from abroad maintains a sensitive Early Warning System. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

  11. Overview of Existing Landslide Early-Warning Systems in Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michoud, C.; Bazin, S.; Blikra, L. H.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2012-04-01

    The project SafeLand is intended to develop generic risk management tools and strategies for landslides. Indeed, the intention of the screening study is to provide guidelines that will help and facilitate the establishment of new early warning systems (EWS) and to increase the quality of existing systems (Bazin et al., 2012). Consequently, one of the first steps is to merge actual knowledge and expert judgments. Thus, as part of this study, we gathered experiences from organizations in charge of landslide EWSs and risk management in order to compile information about the state of the art technologies and existing strategies. To ensure those objectives, a questionnaire was produced by UNIL, ICG and ÅTB. Divided in 5 parts, the questionnaires collected information about: 1. General information on the unit in charge of the EWS; 2. Knowledge about the monitored landslide; 3. Pre-investigations used to design the EWS; 4. Monitoring parameters, thresholds and sensors evaluation; 5. Warnings, communications and decision making process. Finally, sent in June 2011 to about hundred organizations in charge of one or several EWS, 14 institutions from 8 countries sent the questionnaires back during the summer and autumn 2011, speaking about 23 landslides. The compilation and analysis of the most interesting answers are the scope of this poster. First, there are no common requirements to design and operate EWSs. From the surveyed countries, only Norway and Slovakia have produced codes or recommendations for this purpose. Secondly, more than 81% of the EWSs are based on displacement monitoring, certainly because it is the direct evidence of deformations. Then the weather conditions are monitored for more than half of the cases. It is also an essential parameter since rainfalls are a destabilizing factor for more than 80% of the studied landslides. Then, advantages and limitations of existing EWSs are clearly defined. Indeed, an EWS should be (1) robust, (2) simple, (3) redundant

  12. Aircraft Low Altitude Wind Shear Detection and Warning System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, Peter C.; Kuhn, Peter M.

    1991-01-01

    There is now considerable evidence to substantiate the causal relationship between low altitude wind shear (LAWS) and the recent increase in low-altitude aircraft accidents. The National Research Council has found that for the period 1964 to 1982, LAWS was involved in nearly all the weather-related air carrier fatalities. However, at present, there is no acceptable method, technique, or hardware system that provides the necessary safety margins, for spatial and timely detection of LAWS from an aircraft during the critical phases of landing and takeoff. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has addressed this matter and supports the development of an airborne system for detecting hazardous LAWS with at least a one minute warning of the potential hazard to the pilot. One of the purposes of this paper is to show from some of our preliminary flight measurement research that a forward looking infrared radiometer (FLIR) system can be used to successfully detect the cool downdraft of downbursts [microbursts/macrobursts (MB)] and thunderstorm gust front outflows that are responsible for most of the LAWS events. The FLIR system provides a much greater safety margin for the pilot than that provided by reactive designs such as inertial-air speed systems that require the actual penetration of the MB before a pilot warning can be initiated. Our preliminary results indicate that an advanced airborne FLIR system could provide the pilot with remote indication of MB threat, location, movement, and predicted MB hazards along the flight path ahead of the aircraft.In a proof-of-concept experiment, we have flight tested a prototype FLIR system (nonscanning, fixed range) near and within Colorado MBs with excellent detectability. The results show that a minimum warning time of one-four minutes (5×10 km), depending on aircraft speed, is available to the pilot prior to a MB encounter. Analysis of the flight data with respect to a modified `hazard index' indicates the severe hazard

  13. Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of

  14. Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

    2006-01-01

    As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting

  15. Historical telecommunication in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas: An ancient early warning system for glacier lake outbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iturrizaga, Lasafam

    2016-04-01

    Mountain societies are in a crucial transition phase in terms of the management of natural hazards. Advances in geographic technologies, such as a variety of remote-sensing tools and mobile communication systems, have drastically changed the way of early warning methods in difficult accessible high mountain environments compared to those of ancient times. In order to implement new natural hazard policies, it is essential to unravel the traditional ways of disaster management which is presented here by a case study from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas. In the rugged relief of the Himalaya Region, the exchange of information was a labor-intensive and time-consuming task for remote high mountain villages before the infrastructural development and the introduction of modern communication systems. Therefore, early warning of natural hazards with long run-out distances seems to have been rather impossible. However, in the present study a historical optical long-distance and fast operating communication system over horizontal distances of several hundred kilometers was discovered during field investigations in the Hindukush-Karakoram and the transmission paths reconstructed in the following years. The so called Puberanch-system relied on a chain of fire signals as used by ancient societies in other mountain and coastal environments in the world. It was originally in use for the alert against war attacks from hostile neighboring communities. Later on, it served as an early warning system for glacier lake outbursts, which have been in the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century one of the most devastating natural hazards in the region. Remarkable is the fact that fire posts were located in extremely harsh environments at altitudes above 4000 m requiring a highly sophisticated supply system of fire wood and food. Interviews with local inhabitants, the evaluation of historical travel records and international newspapers proved, that the system has been

  16. Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

    2016-04-01

    High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message

  17. Space systems for disaster warning, response, and recovery

    CERN Document Server

    Madry, Scott

    2015-01-01

    This SpringerBrief provides a general overview of the role of satellite applications for disaster mitigation, warning, planning, recovery and response. It covers both the overall role and perspective of the emergency management community as well as the various space applications that support their work. Key insights are provided as to how satellite telecommunications, remote sensing, navigation systems, GIS, and the emerging domain of social media are utilized in the context of emergency management needs and requirements. These systems are now critical in addressing major man-made and natural disasters. International policy and treaties are covered along with various case studies from around the world. These case studies indicate vital lessons that have been learned about how to use space systems more effectively in addressing the so-called “Disaster Cycle.” This book is appropriate for practicing emergency managers, Emergency Management (EM) courses, as well as for those involved in various space applica...

  18. Rainfall thresholds and flood warning: an operative case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Montesarchio

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available An operative methodology for rainfall thresholds definition is illustrated, in order to provide at critical river section optimal flood warnings. Threshold overcoming could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk and trigger the prevention and emergency system alert. The procedure for the definition of critical rainfall threshold values is based both on the quantitative precipitation observed and the hydrological response of the basin. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section and are estimated by hydrological modelling for several scenarios (e.g.: modifying the soil moisture conditions. Some preliminary results, in terms of reliability analysis (presence of false alarms and missed alarms, evaluated using indicators like hit rate and false alarm rate for the case study of Mignone River are presented.

  19. Rapid estimate of earthquake source duration: application to tsunami warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reymond, Dominique; Jamelot, Anthony; Hyvernaud, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    We present a method for estimating the source duration of the fault rupture, based on the high-frequency envelop of teleseismic P-Waves, inspired from the original work of (Ni et al., 2005). The main interest of the knowledge of this seismic parameter is to detect abnormal low velocity ruptures that are the characteristic of the so called 'tsunami-earthquake' (Kanamori, 1972). The validation of the results of source duration estimated by this method are compared with two other independent methods : the estimated duration obtained by the Wphase inversion (Kanamori and Rivera, 2008, Duputel et al., 2012) and the duration calculated by the SCARDEC process that determines the source time function (M. Vallée et al., 2011). The estimated source duration is also confronted to the slowness discriminant defined by Newman and Okal, 1998), that is calculated routinely for all earthquakes detected by our tsunami warning process (named PDFM2, Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism, (Clément and Reymond, 2014)). Concerning the point of view of operational tsunami warning, the numerical simulations of tsunami are deeply dependent on the source estimation: better is the source estimation, better will be the tsunami forecast. The source duration is not directly injected in the numerical simulations of tsunami, because the cinematic of the source is presently totally ignored (Jamelot and Reymond, 2015). But in the case of a tsunami-earthquake that occurs in the shallower part of the subduction zone, we have to consider a source in a medium of low rigidity modulus; consequently, for a given seismic moment, the source dimensions will be decreased while the slip distribution increased, like a 'compact' source (Okal, Hébert, 2007). Inversely, a rapid 'snappy' earthquake that has a poor tsunami excitation power, will be characterized by higher rigidity modulus, and will produce weaker displacement and lesser source dimensions than 'normal' earthquake. References: CLément, J

  20. Early Warning System: a juridical notion to be built

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarelli, A.

    2007-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are becoming effective tools for real time mitigation of the harmful effects arising from widely different hazards, which range from famine to financial crisis, malicious attacks, industrial accidents, natural catastrophes, etc. Early warning of natural catastrophic events allows to implement both alert systems and real time prevention actions for the safety of people and goods exposed to the risk However the effective implementation of early warning methods is hindered by the lack of a specific juridical frame. Under a juridical point of view, in fact, EWS and in general all the activities of prevention need a careful regulation, mainly with regards to responsibility and possible compensation for damage caused by the implemented actions. A preventive alarm, in fact, has an active influence on infrastructures in control of public services which in turn will suffer suspensions or interruptions because of the early warning actions. From here it is necessary to possess accurate normative references related to the typology of structures or infrastructures upon which the activity of readiness acts; the progressive order of suspension of public services; the duration of these suspensions; the corporate bodies or administrations that are competent to assume such decisions; the actors responsible for the consequences of false alarm, missed or delayed alarms; the mechanisms of compensation for damage; the insurance systems; etc In the European Union EWS are often quoted as preventive methods of mitigation of the risk. Nevertheless, a juridical notion of EWS of general use is not available. In fact, EW is a concept that finds application in many different circles, each of which require specific adaptations, and may concern subjects for which the European Union doesn't have exclusive competence as may be the responsibility of the member states to assign the necessary regulations. In so far as the juridical arrangement of the EWS, this must be

  1. Early warning score predicts acute mortality in stroke patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liljehult, J; Christensen, T

    2016-01-01

    was to investigate whether the aggregate weighted track and trigger system early warning score (EWS) can be used as a simple observational tool to identify patients at risk and predict mortality in a population of patients with acute stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients admitted with acute stroke...... at the Copenhagen University Hospital, Nordsjaellands Hospital, Denmark, from May to September 2012 were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study (n = 274). Vital signs were measured immediately after admission and consistently during the hospitalization period. Based on the vital signs, a single composite EWS...... the EWS at admission (AUROC 0.856; 95% CI 0.760-0.951; P-value score is a simple and valid...

  2. Multicriteria Early Warning System of Enterprises against the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Korol

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of the enterprises. In the article author compares the effectiveness of multicriteria early warning system with the traditional discriminant analysis model of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Market. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. Additionally, author has used the macroeconomic variables in developed multicriteria system. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.  

  3. An Imbalanced Learning based MDR-TB Early Warning System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sheng; Tang, Bo; He, Haibo

    2016-07-01

    As a man-made disease, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is mainly caused by improper treatment programs and poor patient supervision, most of which could be prevented. According to the daily treatment and inspection records of tuberculosis (TB) cases, this study focuses on establishing a warning system which could early evaluate the risk of TB patients converting to MDR-TB using machine learning methods. Different imbalanced sampling strategies and classification methods were compared due to the disparity between the number of TB cases and MDR-TB cases in historical data. The final results show that the relative optimal predictions results can be obtained by adopting CART-USBagg classification model in the first 90 days of half of a standardized treatment process.

  4. Angiographic warning of hemorrhagic transformation after stent retriever thrombectomy procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vollman, Andrew T; Bruno, Charles A; Dumeer, Shifali; Malone, Hani; Meyers, Philip M

    2014-01-01

    This study reports cerebral angiographic findings observed after stent retriever thrombectomy that is suggestive of a higher risk of hemorrhagic transformation (HT). A woman aged 65-75 presented with a right middle cerebral artery syndrome confirmed by non-contrast CT brain scan. Endovascular revascularization using the Solitaire device was placed across the thromboembolic occlusion and thromboembolectomy was performed. Angiography showed complete recanalization of the left internal carotid artery, anterior and middle cerebral artery branches. Twelve hours following the procedure the patient had a hemorrhagic conversion of the ischemic infarct with significant mass effect causing herniation. Despite surgical intervention (hemicraniectomy) the patient died. The angiographic features following revascularization of the vessels distal to the occlusion showed subtle dilations which were visualized at the branch points of the vessels. This may be a warning sign of increased risk of HT.

  5. Clairvoyance vs. common sense: therapist's duty to warn and protect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonkin, D J

    1986-01-01

    This article addresses the issue of a therapist's duty to warn and protect victims of domestic violence. In three different cases, California courts have found therapists liable for violent acts perpetrated by clients in their care. Based on the landmark Tarasoff case that mandated the therapist to report threats made by their clients regarding a specific victim, the courts have now extended the therapist's duty to include the reporting of those clients they assess as dangerous but who have not made specific threats, as well as the protection of unintended victims of violence, such as children. Therapists are concerned that the courts are expecting them to be clairvoyant and that psychologists may not be able to predict dangerousness. This article will discuss these concerns in light of the current state of the art regarding the prediction of dangerousness and its relationship to domestic violence. The author suggests specific clinical interventions for victims and perpetrators of domestic violence.

  6. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

  7. Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sättele

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Early warning systems (EWS are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWS is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWS and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWS is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWS. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.

  8. Geological hazards: from early warning systems to public health toolkits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samarasundera, Edgar; Hansell, Anna; Leibovici, Didier; Horwell, Claire J; Anand, Suchith; Oppenheimer, Clive

    2014-11-01

    Extreme geological events, such as earthquakes, are a significant global concern and sometimes their consequences can be devastating. Geographic information plays a critical role in health protection regarding hazards, and there are a range of initiatives using geographic information to communicate risk as well as to support early warning systems operated by geologists. Nevertheless we consider there to remain shortfalls in translating information on extreme geological events into health protection tools, and suggest that social scientists have an important role to play in aiding the development of a new generation of toolkits aimed at public health practitioners. This viewpoint piece reviews the state of the art in this domain and proposes potential contributions different stakeholder groups, including social scientists, could bring to the development of new toolkits.

  9. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bednarczyk Zbigniew

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which

  10. Some new pre-warning criteria for creep slope failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HACK; Robert

    2011-01-01

    The forecasting of the failure time of a slope remains a worldwide problem because of many different possibilities of geological conditions in combination with many varying external factors such as climate and vegetation,and not well-defined or unknown time effects in deformation and failure models.The aim of this paper is to suggest a new method to carry out the phase division and to explore tangential angular features of the displacement-time curve of creep slopes as well as the acceleration characteristics in the process of slope deformation and the pre-warning criteria for critical failure.An imminent failure is pro-ceeded with usually three basic deformation phases,namely primary creep("decelerated") ,secondary creep("steadystate") and tertiary creep("accelerated") .Mostly,only during the accelerated phase the imminence of a possible slope failure is rec-ognized.The analysis of displacement data from a series of landslides allowed to recognize different evolutionary patterns of displacement.A quantitative approach was proposed to describe the tangential angle of the displacement-time curve and a new criterion based on the angle was put forward to divide the accelerated phase into three sub-phases:initial acceleration,medium acceleration,and the critical failure.A pre-warning criterion for critical failure is also proposed consequently. Changes of acceleration showed completely different characteristics from those of cumulative displacement and displacement in the process of slope deformation.The values of acceleration usually oscillate around 0 prior to the critical failure phase,whereas the acceleration increases abruptly when the deformation moves into the critical failure phase.This allows,therefore,for a method to forecast the time of the failure.So it is possible to define different alert acceleration threshold values to be used for emergency management.

  11. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarczyk, Zbigniew

    2014-03-01

    This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which prevent landslides.

  12. Early Warning of El Nino Impacts on Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Hillbruner, C.; Budde, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Before and during the El Niño of 2015-2016, regular and frequent application of climate monitoring and seasonal forecasts enabled early warning of food insecurity in Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean. As it happened, drought associated with the quasi-El Niño of 2014 had already adversely impacted harvests in Central America, Haiti, and Southern Africa, so the effects of the El Niño of 2015-2016 were especially hard-hitting and particularly devastating to crop conditions and food security. In the case of Ethiopia, 2014 conditions were normal but there were record rainfall deficits in 2015, with consequent crop failure, inadequate forage, and sharply curtailed water availability. Combining such agro-climatological information with knowledge of household economies, livelihood systems, markets & trade, and health & nutrition, FEWS NET constructed scenarios of food insecurity eight months into the future, with monthly updates. These scenarios informed assistance programming by USAID and partners. Overall, FEWS NET estimates that at least 18 million people will be severely food insecure during 2015/16 as a direct result of the impact of El Nino on rainfall. However, in Ethiopia, the contrast with the 1982-1983 El Niño is dramatic; though the two events were climatically similar, the human impacts of the 2015-2016 El Niño are much less, thanks not only to well-functioning early warning systems and large scale emergency response, but also improved social safety nets and lack of ongoing armed conflict. In southern Africa, El Nino resulted in extensive failed crops, with some areas of South Africa and Zimbabwe having insufficient rain to plant crops. Remote sensing products provided relevant information to depict the severity of rainfall and vegetation deficits. Likewise, in Central America and the Caribbean (Hispaniola), rainfall deficits were portrayed in the perspective of 30+ years of data.

  13. Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.

    2016-12-01

    Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

  14. 30 CFR 75.1103-8 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-8 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements. (a) Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems shall be examined at...

  15. Application of Advanced Wide Area Early Warning Systems with Adaptive Protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blumstein, Carl [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Cibulka, Lloyd [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Thorp, James [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Centeno, Virgilio [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); King, Roger [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Reeves, Kari [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Ashrafi, Frank [Southern California Edison Co., Rosemead, CA (United States); Madani, Vahid [Pacific Gas & Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    Recent blackouts of power systems in North America and throughout the world have shown how critical a reliable power system is to modern societies, and the enormous economic and societal damage a blackout can cause. It has been noted that unanticipated operation of protection systems can contribute to cascading phenomena and, ultimately, blackouts. This project developed and field-tested two methods of Adaptive Protection systems utilizing synchrophasor data. One method detects conditions of system stress that can lead to unintended relay operation, and initiates a supervisory signal to modify relay response in real time to avoid false trips. The second method detects the possibility of false trips of impedance relays as stable system swings “encroach” on the relays’ impedance zones, and produces an early warning so that relay engineers can re-evaluate relay settings. In addition, real-time synchrophasor data produced by this project was used to develop advanced visualization techniques for display of synchrophasor data to utility operators and engineers.

  16. [Study on miniature static Fourier transform spectrometer used in laser warning receiver].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Er-Ming; Zhang, Ji-Long; Li, Xiao; Zhang, Yue; Wang, Zhi-Bin

    2009-03-01

    A miniature static Fourier transform spectrometer (MSFTS) as the component of coherent discriminating laser warning receiver (CDLWR) was designed in the present study by using a modified wedge interfering etalon (MWIE), a linear charge couple device (CCD) and a fast digital signal processor (DSP). The MSFTS possesses some advantages such as small volume, low cost, high speed, stable performance and good signal to noise ratio. MSFTS can detect the spectrum of HIPL, the short pulse width of laser is about 10 ns, and the spectrum scope is from 400 to 1 100 nm. The key element of MSFTS is MWIE which is composed of two triangle prisms, one of which is a right angle prism with two equal acute angles of 45 degrees, another prism has no right angle, one of the acute angles is 45 degrees, and another is slightly smaller than 45 degrees. The long sides of the two prisms were bonded by transparent glass glue, and the adhesive surface is plated with special material which serves as a beam splitter (BS). The incident laser will be split into two equal strength beams with continuously changing optical path difference, the two beams will interfere and form interferogram which will be focused by a cylinder as a line and transformed as s electronic signal by CCD. The electronic signal was processed by using a DSP, and finally we obtained the spectrum of the incident hostile laser by applying fast Fourier transform (FFT). We have established the experiment system of MSFTS, and used the system and the spectrometer Q8344A made by Advantest Company in Japan to measure the spectra of the seven lasers with different central wavelengths: 635, 650, 670, 780, 808, 850 and 980 nm. The measurement result shows that the worst wavelength resolution is 8. 845 nm at 1 100 nm, the best wavelength resolution is 1.170 nm at 400 nm, the relative average error of central wavelength is 0.269 nm, the absolute average error is 0.919 nm and signal-to-noise ratio of our experiment system is better than

  17. Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the U.S. for Warn Early Warning System for Forest Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Norman, Steve; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip

    2012-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx 751 million acres (approx 1/3 of total land). Several abiotic and biotic damage agents disturb, damage, kill, and/or threaten these forests. Regionally extensive forest disturbances can also threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work at finer scales. daily MODIS data provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis, leveraging vegetation phenology. In response, the USFS and NASA began collaborating in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS).

  18. Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

    2017-04-01

    In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

  19. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depp, Colin; Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-09-07

    Recognition and timely action around "warning signs" of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations.

  20. Ten years after the FDA black box warning for antidepressant drugs: a critical narrative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Martínez-Aguayo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Background The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA has warned about the increased suicidality risk associated with the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI and venlafaxine in children and adolescents. Objectives To critically appraise the available evidence supporting the FDA Black box warning concerning to the use of antidepressants in child and adolescents. Methods A critical review of articles in Medline/PubMed and SciELO databases regarding the FDA Black box warning for antidepressants, and the impact of FDA warnings on antidepressant prescriptions and suicide rates. Results The warning was based on surveys that did not report either cases of suicide nor a significant difference supporting an increased suicidality rate. The concept was defined in an ambiguous way and there is currently more available evidence to support such definition. The use of SSRI and venlafaxine has been associated to lower suicidality rates, but the prescription fall due to the warning increased suicide rates. Discussion Suicidality is an inherent feature of depressive disorders so it would be desirable to consider how much of the phenomenon may be attributed to antidepressants per se. It would be appropriate to consider that suicide rates might increase also as a consequence of the warning.

  1. APPLICATION OF FUZZY OPTIMIZATION MODEL IN ECOLOGICAL SECURITY PRE-WARNING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Kai-ya; HU Shu-heng; SUN Shi-qun

    2005-01-01

    Ecological security is a vital problem that people all over the world today have to face and solve, and the situation of ecological security is getting more and more severe and has begun to impede heavily the sustainable development of social economy. Ecological environment pre-warning has become a hotspot for the modern environment science. This paper introduces the theories of ecological security pre-warning and tries to constitute a pre-warning model of ecological security. In terms of pressure-state-response model, the pre-warning guide line of ecological security is constructed while the pre-warning degree judging model of ecological security is established based on fuzzy optimization. As a case, the model is used to assess the present condition pre-warning of the ecological security of Anhui Province. The result is in correspondence with the real condition: the ecological security situations of 8 cities are dangerous and 9 cities are secure. The result shows that this model is scientific and effective for regional ecological security pre-warning.

  2. Cable Overheating Risk Warning Method Based on Impedance Parameter Estimation in Distribution Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhang; Xiaohui, Song; Jianfang, Li; Fei, Gao

    2017-05-01

    Cable overheating will lead to the cable insulation level reducing, speed up the cable insulation aging, even easy to cause short circuit faults. Cable overheating risk identification and warning is nessesary for distribution network operators. Cable overheating risk warning method based on impedance parameter estimation is proposed in the paper to improve the safty and reliability operation of distribution network. Firstly, cable impedance estimation model is established by using least square method based on the data from distribiton SCADA system to improve the impedance parameter estimation accuracy. Secondly, calculate the threshold value of cable impedance based on the historical data and the forecast value of cable impedance based on the forecasting data in future from distribiton SCADA system. Thirdly, establish risks warning rules library of cable overheating, calculate the cable impedance forecast value and analysis the change rate of impedance, and then warn the overheating risk of cable line based on the overheating risk warning rules library according to the variation relationship between impedance and line temperature rise. Overheating risk warning method is simulated in the paper. The simulation results shows that the method can identify the imedance and forecast the temperature rise of cable line in distribution network accurately. The result of overheating risk warning can provide decision basis for operation maintenance and repair.

  3. Alcohol Warnings and Moderate Drinking Patterns among Italian University Students: An Exploratory Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annunziata, Azzurra; Vecchio, Riccardo; Mariani, Angela

    2017-06-17

    The introduction of health warnings on labels to correct externalities associated with alcohol consumption is heavily debated and has been explored from different perspectives. The current paper aims to analyse the interest and attitudes of Italian university students regarding health warnings on alcoholic beverages and to verify the existence of segments that differ in terms of attitudes towards such warnings. Our results show that young consumers consider health warnings quite important, although the degree of perceived utility differs in relation to the type of warning. Cluster analysis shows the existence of three groups of young consumers with different degrees of attention and perceived utility of warnings on alcoholic beverages, but also in relation to drinking behaviour and awareness of social and health risks related to alcohol consumption. In brief, Italian young adults with moderate consumption behaviour view label warnings positively, while this attitude is weaker among younger adults and those with riskier consumption behaviours. Our findings, albeit limited and based on stated and not revealed data, support the need for appropriate tools to improve the availability of information among young adults on the risks of excessive alcohol consumption and increased awareness of the importance of moderate drinking.

  4. Viewing alcohol warning advertising reduces urges to drink in young adults: an online experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stautz, Kaidy; Marteau, Theresa M

    2016-07-08

    Tobacco counter-advertising is effective at promoting smoking cessation. Few studies have evaluated the impact of alcohol warning advertising on alcohol consumption and possible mechanisms of effect. This pilot study aimed to assess whether alcohol warning advertising is effective in reducing urges to drink alcohol, if emotional responses to advertising explain any such effect or perceived effectiveness, and whether effects differ among heavier drinkers. One hundred fifty-two young adult (aged 18-25) alcohol users completed an online experiment in which they were randomly assigned to view one of three sets of six advertisements: (i) alcohol warning; (ii) alcohol promoting; or (iii) advertisements for non-alcohol products. Urges to drink alcohol were self-reported post-exposure. Affective responses (pleasure and arousal) to each advertisement and perceived effectiveness of each advertisement were recorded. Typical level of alcohol consumption was measured as a potential effect modifier. Participants exposed to alcohol warning advertisements reported significantly lower urges to drink alcohol than those who viewed either alcohol promoting or non-alcohol advertisements. This effect was fully mediated by negative affective responses (displeasure) to the alcohol warning advertisements. Perceived effectiveness of alcohol warning advertisements was associated with high arousal responses. Impact of the advertisements was unaffected by typical level of alcohol consumption, although the study was not powered to detect anything other than large effects. In line with findings from the tobacco literature, alcohol warning advertisements that elicit negative affect reduce urges to drink alcohol. Their impact upon actual consumption awaits investigation.

  5. Cigarette packaging and health warnings: the impact of plain packaging and message framing on young smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, Darren; Niaura, Raymond S; Evans, W Douglas; Hammond, David; Luta, George; Tercyak, Kenneth P

    2015-03-01

    This study examined the impact of pictorial cigarette-warning labels, warning-label message framing and plain cigarette packaging, on young adult smokers' motivation to quit. Smokers aged 18-30 years (n=740) from a consumer research panel were randomised to one of four experimental conditions where they viewed online images of four cigarette packs with warnings about lung disease, cancer, stroke/heart disease and death, respectively. Packs differed across conditions by warning-message framing (gain vs loss) and packaging (branded vs plain). Measures captured demographics, smoking behaviour, covariates and motivation to quit in response to cigarette packs. Pictorial warnings about lung disease and cancer generated the strongest motivation to quit across conditions. Adjusting for pretest motivation and covariates, a message framing by packaging interaction revealed gain-framed warnings on plain packs generated greater motivation to quit for lung disease, cancer and mortality warnings (ppackaging regulations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  6. A visual warning system to reduce struck-by or pinning accidents involving mobile mining equipment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sammarco, J; Gallagher, S; Mayton, A; Srednicki, J

    2012-11-01

    This paper describes an experiment to examine whether a visual warning system can improve detection of moving machine hazards that could result in struck-by or pinning accidents. Thirty-six participants, twelve each in one of three age groups, participated in the study. A visual warning system capable of providing four different modes of warning was installed on a continuous mining machine that is used to mine coal. The speed of detecting various machine movements was recorded with and without the visual warning system. The average speed of detection for forward and reverse machine movements was reduced by 75% when using the flashing mode of the visual warning system. This translated to 0.485 m of machine travel for the fast speed condition of 19.8 m/min, which is significant in the context of the confined spaces of a mine. There were no statistically significant differences among age groups in the ability to detect machine movements for the visual warning modes in this study. The visual warning system shows promise as a safety intervention for reducing struck-by or pinning accidents involving continuous mining machines. The methods and results of this study could be applied to other moving machinery used in mining or other industries where moving machinery poses struck-by or pinning hazards.

  7. Alcohol Warnings and Moderate Drinking Patterns among Italian University Students: An Exploratory Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azzurra Annunziata

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of health warnings on labels to correct externalities associated with alcohol consumption is heavily debated and has been explored from different perspectives. The current paper aims to analyse the interest and attitudes of Italian university students regarding health warnings on alcoholic beverages and to verify the existence of segments that differ in terms of attitudes towards such warnings. Our results show that young consumers consider health warnings quite important, although the degree of perceived utility differs in relation to the type of warning. Cluster analysis shows the existence of three groups of young consumers with different degrees of attention and perceived utility of warnings on alcoholic beverages, but also in relation to drinking behaviour and awareness of social and health risks related to alcohol consumption. In brief, Italian young adults with moderate consumption behaviour view label warnings positively, while this attitude is weaker among younger adults and those with riskier consumption behaviours. Our findings, albeit limited and based on stated and not revealed data, support the need for appropriate tools to improve the availability of information among young adults on the risks of excessive alcohol consumption and increased awareness of the importance of moderate drinking.

  8. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-01-01

    Recognition and timely action around “warning signs” of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265

  9. Earthquake Early Warning using a Seismogeodetic Approach: An operational plan for Cascadia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, B. W.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.; Schmidt, D. A.; Melbourne, T. I.; Scrivner, C. W.; Santillan, V. M.; Szeliga, W. M.; Minson, S. E.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2013-12-01

    We present an operational plan for implementing combined seismic and geodetic time series in an earthquake early warning system for Cascadia. The Cascadian subduction zone presents one of the greatest risks for a megaquake in the continental United States. Ascertaining the full magnitude and extent of large earthquakes is problematic for earthquake early warning systems due to instability when double integrating strong-motion records to ground displacement. This problem can be mitigated by augmenting earthquake early warning systems with real-time GPS data, allowing for the progression and spatial extent of large earthquakes to be better resolved due to GPS's ability to measure both dynamic and permanent displacements. The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) at the University of Washington is implementing an integrated seismogeodetic approach to earthquake early warning. Regional GPS data are provided by the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (PANGA) at Central Washington University. Precise Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are sent from PANGA to the PNSN through JSON formatted streams and processed with a Python-based quality control (QC) module. The QC module also ingest accelerations from PNSN seismic stations through the Earthworm seismic acquisition and processing system for the purpose of detecting outliers and Kalman filtering when collocated instruments exist. The QC module outputs time aligned and cleaned displacement waveforms to ActiveMQ, an XML-based messaging broker that is currently used in seismic early warning architecture. Earthquake characterization modules read displacement information from ActiveMQ when triggered by warnings from ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm. Peak ground displacement and P-wave scaling relationships from Kalman filtered waveforms provide initial magnitude estimates. Additional modules perform more complex source modeling such as centroid moment tensors and slip inversions that characterize the full size and

  10. Motivation to quit smoking and acceptability of shocking warnings on cigarette packages in Lebanon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layoun, Nelly; Salameh, Pascal; Waked, Mirna; Aoun Bacha, Z; Zeenny, Rony M; El Hitti, Eric; Godin, Isabelle; Dramaix, Michèle

    2017-01-01

    Health warnings on tobacco packages have been considered an essential pillar in filling the gap of knowledge and communicating the health risks of tobacco use to consumers. Our primary objective was to report the perception of smokers on the textual health warnings already appearing on tobacco packages in Lebanon versus shocking pictures about the health-related smoking consequences and to evaluate their impact on smoking behaviors and motivation. A pilot cross-sectional study was undertaken between 2013 and 2015 in five hospitals in Lebanon. Participants answered a questionnaire inquiring about sociodemographic characteristics, chronic respiratory symptoms, smoking behavior and motivation to quit smoking. Only-text warning versus shocking pictures was shown to the smokers during the interview. Exactly 66% of the participants reported that they thought shocking pictorial warnings would hypothetically be more effective tools to reduce/quit tobacco consumption compared to only textual warnings. Also, 31.9% of the smokers who were motivated to stop smoking reported that they actually had stopped smoking for at least 1 month secondary to the textual warnings effects. A higher motivation to quit cigarette smoking was seen among the following groups of smokers: males (odds ratio [OR] =1.8, P=0.02), who had stopped smoking for at least 1 month during the last year due to textual warning (OR =2.79, Pshocking images on the pack (OR =1.95, P=0.004). Low-dependent smokers and highly motivated to quit smokers appeared to be more hypothetically susceptible to shocking pictorial warnings. Motivation to quit was associated with sensitivity to warnings, but not with the presence of all chronic respiratory symptoms.

  11. Motivation to quit smoking and acceptability of shocking warnings on cigarette packages in Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layoun, Nelly; Salameh, Pascal; Waked, Mirna; Aoun Bacha, Z; Zeenny, Rony M; El Hitti, Eric; Godin, Isabelle; Dramaix, Michèle

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Health warnings on tobacco packages have been considered an essential pillar in filling the gap of knowledge and communicating the health risks of tobacco use to consumers. Our primary objective was to report the perception of smokers on the textual health warnings already appearing on tobacco packages in Lebanon versus shocking pictures about the health-related smoking consequences and to evaluate their impact on smoking behaviors and motivation. Methods A pilot cross-sectional study was undertaken between 2013 and 2015 in five hospitals in Lebanon. Participants answered a questionnaire inquiring about sociodemographic characteristics, chronic respiratory symptoms, smoking behavior and motivation to quit smoking. Only-text warning versus shocking pictures was shown to the smokers during the interview. Results Exactly 66% of the participants reported that they thought shocking pictorial warnings would hypothetically be more effective tools to reduce/quit tobacco consumption compared to only textual warnings. Also, 31.9% of the smokers who were motivated to stop smoking reported that they actually had stopped smoking for at least 1 month secondary to the textual warnings effects. A higher motivation to quit cigarette smoking was seen among the following groups of smokers: males (odds ratio [OR] =1.8, P=0.02), who had stopped smoking for at least 1 month during the last year due to textual warning (OR =2.79, Pmotivated to quit smokers appeared to be more hypothetically susceptible to shocking pictorial warnings. Motivation to quit was associated with sensitivity to warnings, but not with the presence of all chronic respiratory symptoms.

  12. ATP signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Novak, Ivana

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Biology at the University of Copenhagen explains the function of ATP signalling in the pancreas......The Department of Biology at the University of Copenhagen explains the function of ATP signalling in the pancreas...

  13. Early warning for global change-induced critical degradation of Amazonia: science and a blue-print for implementation from the AMAZALERT project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruijt, B.; von Randow, C.; Good, P.; Kay, G.; Elbers, J. A.; de Oliveira, G. S.; Meesters, A.; Nobre, C. A.

    2014-12-01

    The Amazon is under threat through the joint effects of unsustainable regional development and climate change. Many studies in the past ten years have indicated that these can lead to deforestation, regional disturbance of temperatures and the water cycle, as well as loss of carbon stocks and biodiversity. In turn, these changes can lead to loss and dying of forests, droughts, low river levels and floods. If and when such degradation would occur, an Early Warning System (EWS) that would detect the imminent change would help to minimise its impacts. The EU-FP7 funded AMAZALERT project has investigated the likelihood and pathways of critical transitions in the Amazon and designed a blue-print for an EWS. There is still much uncertainty on how robust the Amazon region is and how likely it is that it may collapse and 'die-back' within the foreseeable future. There is also uncertainty whether critical degradation would show any critical 'tipping point' behaviour, and whether such change would be associated with detectable early-warning signals, such as enhanced but slowing down variability in variables ahead of thresholds that are associated with the change. In the AMAZALERT project we performed a set of coherent climate, vegetation, hydrological, socio-economic and policy model evaluations to detect the sensitivities and potential critical change behaviour of the Amazon's ecosystem services to climate and land-use change. We improved their parameterisation through field data analysis as well as through stakeholder interactions. A framework was designed to enable early warning and to assess implementation issues. A hierarchy of warning levels can be distinguished ranging from policy failure though fatal regional forcing conditions, to actual impact on ecosystems and ecosystem services. For each level, different sets of indicators can be identified and different observational and analysis tools are required. Model simulations of both low and high complexity show

  14. TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC: Brief Historical Review of its Establishment and Institutional Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The year 2015 marks the 50th anniversary of operations of the International Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific Ocean. The present report describes briefly the establishment of the rudimentary early tsunami warning system in 1948 by the USA after the disastrous tsunami of April 1, 1946, generated by a great earthquake in the Aleutian Islands, struck without warning the Hawaiian Islands and other parts of the Pacific. Also reviewed are the progressive improvements made to the U.S. warning system, following the destructive tsunamis of 1952, 1957, 1960 and 1964, and of the early, support efforts undertaken in the U.S.A., initially by the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics of the University of Hawaii, by the U. S. Coast and Geodetic Survey and by the Honolulu Observatory - later renamed Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC. Following the 1964 Alaska tsunami, there was increased international cooperation, which resulted in a better understanding of the tsunami phenomenon and the development of a new field of Science of Tsunami Hazards in support of the early U.S. Warning System. Continuous supporting international cooperative efforts after 1965, resulted in the integration of the U.S. early warning system with other early regional tsunami warning systems of other nations to become the International Tsunami Warning System under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC of UNESCO for the purpose of mitigating the disaster’s impact in the Pacific, but later expanded to include other regions. Briefly reviewed in this paper is the subsequent institutional support of the International Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific, by the International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC, the International Tsunami Coordination Group (ICG/ITS, the Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (ATWC, the Joint Tsunami Research Effort (JTRE, NOAA’s National Geophysical Center (NGDC, the Pacific Marine Laboratory (PMEL of NOAA and of the later

  15. Research on Technology Early-Warning System Based on Dynamic Information Monitoring

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xue-feng; ZHU Dong-hua; LIU Song; LIU Jia

    2009-01-01

    Relying on the advanced information technologies,such as information monitoring,data mining,natural language processing etc.,the dynamic technology early-warning system is constructed.The system consists of technology information automatic retrieval,technology information monitoring,technology threat evaluation,and crisis response and management subsystem,which implements uninterrupted dynamic monitoring,trace and crisis early-warning to the specific technology.Empirical study testifies that the system improves the accuracy,timeliness and reliability of technology early-warning.

  16. The Application of Big data Mining in Risk Warning for Food Safety

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yajie; WANG; Bing; YANG; Yan; LUO; Jinlin; HE; Hong; TAN

    2015-01-01

    Comprehensive evaluation and warning is very important and difficult in food safety. This paper mainly focuses on introducing the application of using big data mining in food safety warning field. At first,we introduce the concept of big data miming and three big data methods. At the same time,we discuss the application of the three big data miming methods in food safety areas. Then we compare these big data miming methods,and propose how to apply Back Propagation Neural Network in food safety risk warning.

  17. Study on the early warning mechanism for the security of blast furnace hearths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Hong-bo; Huo, Shou-feng; Cheng, Shu-sen

    2013-04-01

    The campaign life of blast furnace (BF) hearths has become the limiting factor for safety and high efficiency production of modern BFs. However, the early warning mechanism of hearth security has not been clear. In this article, based on heat transfer calculations, heat flux and erosion monitoring, the features of heat flux and erosion were analyzed and compared among different types of hearths. The primary detecting elements, mathematical models, evaluating standards, and warning methods were discussed. A novel early warning mechanism with the three-level quantificational standards was proposed for BF hearth security.

  18. Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

    2017-06-01

    An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post

  19. A new multi-sensor approach to simulation assisted tsunami early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, J.; Androsov, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Harig, S.; Klaschka, F.; Mentrup, L.

    2010-06-01

    A new tsunami forecasting method for near-field tsunami warning is presented. This method is applied in the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, as part of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning Center in Jakarta, Indonesia. The method employs a rigorous approach to minimize uncertainty in the assessment of tsunami hazard in the near-field. Multiple independent sensors are evaluated simultaneously in order to achieve an accurate estimation of coastal arrival times and wave heights within very short time after a submarine earthquake event. The method is validated employing a synthetic (simulated) tsunami event, and in hindcasting the minor tsunami following the Padang 30 September 2009 earthquake.

  20. Real-Time Earthquake Risk Mitigation Of Infrastructures Using Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa

    2014-05-01

    The Istanbul EEW network consisting of 10 inland and 5 OBS strong motion stations located close to the Main Marmara Fault zone is operated by KOERI. Data transmission between the remote stations and the base station at KOERI is provided both with satellite and fiber optic cable systems. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes. The data transmission time from the remote stations to the KOERI data center is a few milliseconds through fiber optic lines and less than a second via satellites. The early warning signal (consisting three alarm levels) is communicated to the appropriate servo shut-down systems of the receipent facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm level. Istanbul Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the EEW signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867 km of gas lines with 550 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. State of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the pipelines are detected. Since 2005, buildings in Istanbul using natural gas are required to install seismometers that automatically cut natural gas flow when certain thresholds are exceeded. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 581 district regulator sites. The SCADA system of IGDAŞ receives the EEW signal from KOERI and decide the proper actions according to the previously specified ground acceleration levels. Presently, KOERI sends EEW signal to the SCADA system of IGDAS Natural Gas Network of Istanbul. The EEW signal

  1. Snow drift: acoustic sensors for avalanche warning and research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehning, M.; Naaim, F.; Naaim, M.; Brabec, B.; Doorschot, J.; Durand, Y.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Michaux, J.-L.; Zimmerli, M.

    Based on wind tunnel measurements at the CSTB (Jules Verne) facility in Nantes and based on field observations at the SLF experimental site Versuchsfeld Weissfluhjoch, two acoustic wind drift sensors are evaluated against different mechanical snow traps and one optical snow particle counter. The focus of the work is the suitability of the acoustic sensors for applications such as avalanche warning and research. Although the acoustic sensors have not yet reached the accuracy required for typical research applications, they can, however, be useful for snow drift monitoring to help avalanche forecasters. The main problem of the acoustic sensors is a difficult calibration that has to take into account the variable snow properties. Further difficulties arise from snow fall and high wind speeds. However, the sensor is robust and can be operated remotely under harsh conditions. It is emphasized that due to the lack of an accurate reference method for snow drift measurements, all sensors play a role in improving and evaluating snow drift models. Finally, current operational snow drift models and snow drift sensors are compared with respect to their usefulness as an aid for avalanche warning. While drift sensors always make a point measurement, the models are able to give a more representative drift index that is valid for a larger area. Therefore, models have the potential to replace difficult observations such as snow drift in operational applications. Current models on snow drift are either only applicable in flat terrain, are still too complex for an operational application (Lehning et al., 2000b), or offer only limited information on snow drift, such as the SNOWPACK drift index (Lehning et al., 2000a). On the other hand, snow drift is also difficult to measure. While mechanical traps (Mellor 1960; Budd et al., 1966) are probably still the best reference, they require more or less continuous manual operation and are thus not suitable for remote locations or long

  2. Snow drift: acoustic sensors for avalanche warning and research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Lehning

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on wind tunnel measurements at the CSTB (Jules Verne facility in Nantes and based on field observations at the SLF experimental site Versuchsfeld Weissfluhjoch, two acoustic wind drift sensors are evaluated against different mechanical snow traps and one optical snow particle counter. The focus of the work is the suitability of the acoustic sensors for applications such as avalanche warning and research. Although the acoustic sensors have not yet reached the accuracy required for typical research applications, they can, however, be useful for snow drift monitoring to help avalanche forecasters. The main problem of the acoustic sensors is a difficult calibration that has to take into account the variable snow properties. Further difficulties arise from snow fall and high wind speeds. However, the sensor is robust and can be operated remotely under harsh conditions. It is emphasized that due to the lack of an accurate reference method for snow drift measurements, all sensors play a role in improving and evaluating snow drift models. Finally, current operational snow drift models and snow drift sensors are compared with respect to their usefulness as an aid for avalanche warning. While drift sensors always make a point measurement, the models are able to give a more representative drift index that is valid for a larger area. Therefore, models have the potential to replace difficult observations such as snow drift in operational applications. Current models on snow drift are either only applicable in flat terrain, are still too complex for an operational application (Lehning et al., 2000b, or offer only limited information on snow drift, such as the SNOWPACK drift index (Lehning et al., 2000a. On the other hand, snow drift is also difficult to measure. While mechanical traps (Mellor 1960; Budd et al., 1966 are probably still the best reference, they require more or less continuous manual operation and are thus not suitable for remote locations

  3. A rainfall-based warning model for shallow landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yi-Chao; Wang, Ji-Shang; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Yin, Hsiao-Yuan; Lo, Wen-Chun

    2016-04-01

    boundaries of the probability range must be defined. The lower critical line (LRTI10) is defined as 10% of rainfall values for the historical rainfall events no matter triggering or not. An upper critical line (LRTI90) is defined as 90 % of rainfall values for all rainfall events exceeded the lower critical line. Further, the various probability of shallow landslide occurrence is analyzed between these two boundaries. Two assessing indexes are used for determining appropriate probability rainfall threshold which are the disaster-capture ratio and false-alarm ratio. The result shows that LRTI70 is preferred adopted as the warning threshold of shallow landslides in this study because of the higher disaster-capture ratio (95%) and lower false-alarm ratio (13%). By the proposed approach, the warning threshold can be determined more reliability and objectivity than the conventional methods (e.g. minimum rainfall threshold or empirical rainfall threshold). The application of the Gaoping River watershed in southern Taiwan was proved that the proposed method can effectively provide early warning before landslides occurred.

  4. Public Health Surveillance in Pilot Drinking Water Contamination Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangel, Chrissy; Allgeier, Steven C.; Gibbons, Darcy; Haas, Adam

    2013-01-01

    Objective This paper describes the lessons learned from operation and maintenance of the public health surveillance (PHS) component of five pilot city drinking water contamination warning systems (CWS) including: Cincinnati, New York, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Dallas. Introduction The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designed a program to pilot multi-component contamination warning systems (CWSs), known as the “Water Security initiative (WSi).” The Cincinnati pilot has been fully operational since January 2008, and an additional four pilot utilities will have their own, custom CWSs by the end of 2012. A workshop amongst the pilot cities was conducted in May 2012 to discuss lessons learned from the design, implementation, operation, maintenance, and evaluation of each city’s PHS component. Methods When evaluating potential surveillance tools to integrate into a drinking water contamination warning system, it is important to consider design decisions, dual use applications/considerations, and the unique capabilities of each tool. The pilot cities integrated unique surveillance tools, which included a combination of automated event detection tools and communication and coordination procedures into their respective PHS components. The five pilots performed a thorough, technical evaluation of each component of their CWS, including PHS. Results Four key lessons learned were identified from implementation of the PHS component in the five pilot cities. First, improved communication and coordination between public health and water utilities was emphasized as an essential goal even if it were not feasible to implement automated surveillance systems. The WSi pilot project has helped to strengthen this communication pathway through the process of collaborating to develop the component, and through the need to investigate PHS alerts. Second, the approximate location of specific cases associated with PHS alerts was found to be an essential feature that

  5. Monitoring and modeling agricultural drought for famine early warning (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, J. P.; Funk, C.; Budde, M. E.; Lietzow, R.; Senay, G. B.; Smith, R.; Pedreros, D.; Rowland, J.; Artan, G. A.; Husak, G. J.; Michaelsen, J.; Adoum, A.; Galu, G.; Magadzire, T.; Rodriguez, M.

    2009-12-01

    The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) makes quantitative estimates of food insecure populations, and identifies the places and periods during which action must be taken to assist them. Subsistence agriculture and pastoralism are the predominant livelihood systems being monitored, and they are especially drought-sensitive. At the same time, conventional climate observation networks in developing countries are often sparse and late in reporting. Consequently, remote sensing has played a significant role since FEWS NET began in 1985. Initially there was heavy reliance on vegetation index imagery from AVHRR to identify anomalies in landscape greenness indicative of drought. In the latter part of the 1990s, satellite rainfall estimates added a second, independent basis for identification of drought. They are used to force crop water balance models for the principal rainfed staple crops in twenty FEWS NET countries. Such models reveal seasonal moisture deficits associated with yield reduction on a spatially continuous basis. In 2002, irrigated crops in southwest Asia became a concern, and prompted the implementation of a gridded energy balance model to simulate the seasonal mountain snow pack, the main source of irrigation water. MODIS land surface temperature data are also applied in these areas to directly estimate actual seasonal evapotranspiration on the irrigated lands. The approach reveals situations of reduced irrigation water supply and crop production due to drought. The availability of MODIS data after 2000 also brought renewed interest in vegetation index imagery. MODIS NDVI data have proven to be of high quality, thanks to significant spectral and spatial resolution improvements over AVHRR. They are vital to producing rapid harvest assessments for drought-impacted countries in Africa and Asia. The global food crisis that emerged in 2008 has led to expansion of FEWS NET monitoring to over 50 additional countries. Unlike previous practice, these

  6. Benefits of Earthquake Early Warning to Large Municipalities (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Featherstone, J.

    2013-12-01

    The City of Los Angeles has been involved in the testing of the Cal Tech Shake Alert, Earthquake Early Warning (EQEW) system, since February 2012. This system accesses a network of seismic monitors installed throughout California. The system analyzes and processes seismic information, and transmits a warning (audible and visual) when an earthquake occurs. In late 2011, the City of Los Angeles Emergency Management Department (EMD) was approached by Cal Tech regarding EQEW, and immediately recognized the value of the system. Simultaneously, EMD was in the process of finalizing a report by a multi-discipline team that visited Japan in December 2011, which spoke to the effectiveness of EQEW for the March 11, 2011 earthquake that struck that country. Information collected by the team confirmed that the EQEW systems proved to be very effective in alerting the population of the impending earthquake. The EQEW in Japan is also tied to mechanical safeguards, such as the stopping of high-speed trains. For a city the size and complexity of Los Angeles, the implementation of a reliable EQEW system will save lives, reduce loss, ensure effective and rapid emergency response, and will greatly enhance the ability of the region to recovery from a damaging earthquake. The current Shake Alert system is being tested at several governmental organizations and private businesses in the region. EMD, in cooperation with Cal Tech, identified several locations internal to the City where the system would have an immediate benefit. These include the staff offices within EMD, the Los Angeles Police Department's Real Time Analysis and Critical Response Division (24 hour crime center), and the Los Angeles Fire Department's Metropolitan Fire Communications (911 Dispatch). All three of these agencies routinely manage the collaboration and coordination of citywide emergency information and response during times of crisis. Having these three key public safety offices connected and included in the

  7. Microsimulation modelling of driver behaviour towards alternative warning devices at railway level crossings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tey, Li-Sian; Zhu, Sicong; Ferreira, Luis; Wallis, Guy

    2014-10-01

    Level crossings are amongst the most complex of road safety issues, due to the addition of rail infrastructure, trains and train operations. The differences in the operational characteristics of different warning devices together with varying crossing, traffic or/and train characteristics, cause different driver behaviour at crossings. This paper compares driver behaviour towards two novel warning devices (rumble strips and in-vehicle audio warning) with two conventional warning devices (flashing light and stop sign) at railway level crossings using microsimulation modelling. Two safety performance indicators directly related to collision risks, violation and time-to-collision, were adopted. Results indicated the active systems were more effective at reducing likely collisions compared to passive devices. With the combined application of driving simulation and traffic microsimulation modelling, traffic safety performance indicators for a level crossing can be estimated. From these, relative safety comparisons for the different traffic devices are derived, or even for absolute safety evaluation with proper calibration from field investigations.

  8. NOAA/NWS Short Duration Severe Weather Warnings WMS/WFS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A prototype Web Map Service (WMS) displaying NOAA National Weather Service short duration weather warning polygons. The data are updated on five minute intervals....

  9. U.S. Medical Experts Issue Warning on Yellow Fever's Advance

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 164012.html U.S. Medical Experts Issue Warning on Yellow Fever's Advance Brazil outbreak has officials worried, and transmission ... another potential mosquito-borne health threat to Americans -- yellow fever. In an essay published Wednesday in the New ...

  10. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    M. Calvello; L. Piciullo

    2015-01-01

    The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps...

  11. Study of Enterprises Marketing Risk Early Warning System Based on BP Neural Network Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Mei-hua; WANG Fu-dong; ZHANG Hong-hong

    2006-01-01

    For effectively early warning the marketing risk caused along with the varied environment, a BP neural network method was introduced on the basis of analyzing the shortcomings of the risk early warning method, and combined with the practical conditions of dairy enterprises, the index system caused by the marketing risk was also studied. The principal component method was used for screening the indexes, the grades and critical values of the marketing risk were determined. Through the configuration of BP network, node processing and error analysis, the early warning results of the marketing risk were obtained. The results indicate that BP neural network method can be effectively applied through the function approach in the marketing early warning with incomplete information and complex varied conditions.

  12. Snow White and the Seven Warnings: Threats to Authentic Evaluation (Assessment).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harman, Susan

    1992-01-01

    Identifies and analyzes seven threats to authentic evaluation, and predicts implications. Warns educators to beware of the term "standards"; norm-referencing; aggregation; credibility, comparability, and calibration; multiple measures; schemes that rule out varieties of excellence; and "untests." (SR)

  13. Ethical dilemmas related to predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phua, Kai-Lit; Hue, J W

    2013-01-01

    Scientists and policy makers issuing predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster are faced with two major challenges, that is, failure to warn and issuing a false alarm. The consequences of failure to warn can be serious for society overall, for example, significant economic losses, heavy infrastructure and environmental damage, large number of human casualties, and social disruption. Failure to warn can also have serious for specific individuals, for example, legal proceedings against disaster research scientists, as in the L'Aquila earthquake affair. The consequences of false alarms may be less serious. Nevertheless, false alarms may violate the principle of nonmaleficence (do no harm), affect individual autonomy (eg, mandatory evacuations), and may result in the "cry wolf" effect. Other ethical issues associated with natural disasters include the promotion of global justice through international predisaster technical assistance and postdisaster aid. Social justice within a particular country is promoted through greater postdisaster aid allocation to the less privileged.

  14. Evolution of an Early Illness Warning System to Monitor Frail Elders in Independent Living

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory L. Alexander

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of an early illness warning system used by an interdisciplinary team composed of clinicians and engineers in an independent living facility. The early illness warning system consists of algorithms which analyze resident activity patterns obtained from sensors embedded in residents' apartments. The engineers designed an automated reasoning system to generate clinically relevant alerts which are sent to clinicians when significant changes occur in the sensor data, for example declining activity levels. During January 2010 through July 2010, clinicians and engineers conducted weekly iterative review cycles of the early illness warning system to discuss concerns about the functionality of the warning system, to recommend solutions for the concerns, and to evaluate the implementation of the solutions. A total of 45 concerns were reviewed during this period. Iterative reviews resulted in greater efficiencies and satisfaction for clinician users who were monitoring elder activity patterns.

  15. 7 Warning Signs of Alzheimer's | Alzheimer's disease | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of this page please turn Javascript on. Feature: Alzheimer's Disease 7 Warning Signs of Alzheimer's Past Issues / Fall 2010 Table of Contents The ... Suncoast Gerontology Center, University of South Florida. How Alzheimer's Changes the Brain The only definite way to ...

  16. Early warning for geo-hazards based on the weather condition in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chuanzheng LIU; Yanhui LIU; Mingsheng WEN; Can TANG; Tiefeng LI; Jianfa LIAN

    2006-01-01

    According to national early warning practice for geo-hazards from 2003 to 2005, it is systematically concluded that the basic characteristics of geo-hazards, early warning method and forecast result based on the geological maps of China in a scale 1∶6 000 000. With the contrast of different characters between sustained rainfall and typhoon rainfall inducing geo-hazards, the disaster reduction result and some problems are preliminarily analyzed. Some basic recognition is that early warning to geo-hazards is feasible, national scale forecast is only to call attention, but can't immediately be used to disaster reduction decision-making. And, the future direction is to build a united disaster reduction framework of early warning system including national, provincial and county levels based on weather factors in different scale of area.

  17. EPA, NASA, NOAA and USGS Creating Early Warning System to Detect Harmful Algal Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    WASHINGTON- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced today that it is developing an early warning indicator system using historical and current satellite data to detect algal blooms. EPA researchers will develop a mobile app to inform water

  18. Method for warning of radiological and chemical substances using detection paints on a vehicle surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Joseph C [Tracy, CA

    2012-03-13

    A system for warning of corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances. The system comprises painting a surface with a paint or coating that includes an indicator material and monitoring the surface for indications of the corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances.

  19. Surface with two paint strips for detection and warning of chemical warfare and radiological agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Joseph C.

    2013-04-02

    A system for warning of corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances. The system comprises painting a surface with a paint or coating that includes an indicator material and monitoring the surface for indications of the corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances.

  20. Current National Weather Service Watches, Warnings, or Advisories for the United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center uses RSS feeds to disseminate all watches, warnings and advisories for the United States that are...

  1. Instant tsunami early warning based on real-time GPS – Tohoku 2011 case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hoechner

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Taking the 2011 Tohoku earthquake as an example, we demonstrate the ability of real-time GPS to provide qualified tsunami early warning within minutes. While in earlier studies we demonstrated the power of the so-called GPS shield concept based on synthetic data, we here present a complete processing chain starting from actual GPS raw data and fully simulate the situation as it would be in a warning center. The procedure includes processing of GPS observations with predicted high precision orbits, inversion for slip and computation of the tsunami propagation and coastal warning levels. We show that in case of the Tohoku earthquake, it would be feasible to provide accurate tsunami warning as soon as 3 min after the beginning of the earthquake.

  2. A hazard-independent approach for the standardised multi-channel dissemination of warning messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esbri Palomares, M. A.; Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The tsunami disaster affecting the Indian Ocean region on Christmas 2004 demonstrated very clearly the shortcomings in tsunami detection, public warning processes as well as intergovernmental warning message exchange in the Indian Ocean region. In that regard, early warning systems require that the dissemination of early warning messages has to be executed in way that ensures that the message delivery is timely; the message content is understandable, usable and accurate. To that end, diverse and multiple dissemination channels must be used to increase the chance of the messages reaching all affected persons in a hazard scenario. In addition to this, usage of internationally accepted standards for the warning dissemination such as the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element specified by the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) increase the interoperability among different warning systems enabling thus the concept of system-of-systems proposed by GEOSS. The project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), co-funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme, aims at strengthening the early warning capacities by building an innovative generation of interoperable tsunami early warning systems based on the above mentioned concepts following a Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) approach. The project focuses on the downstream part of the hazard information processing where customized, user-tailored warning messages and alerts flow from the warning centre to the responsible authorities and/or the public with their different needs and responsibilities. The information logistics services within DEWS generate tailored EDXL-DE/CAP warning messages for each user that must receive the message according to their preferences, e.g., settings for language, interested areas, dissemination channels, etc.. However, the significant difference in the implementation and

  3. Paint for detection of corrosion and warning of chemical and radiological attack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Joseph C.

    2010-08-24

    A system for warning of corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances. The system comprises painting a surface with a paint or coating that includes an indicator material and monitoring the surface for indications of the corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances.

  4. Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

  5. Operational Forecasting and Warning systems for Coastal hazards in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Kwang-Soon; Kwon, Jae-Il; Kim, Jin-Ah; Heo, Ki-Young; Jun, Kicheon

    2017-04-01

    Coastal hazards caused by both Mother Nature and humans cost tremendous social, economic and environmental damages. To mitigate these damages many countries have been running the operational forecasting or warning systems. Since 2009 Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) has been developed by the leading of Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) in Korea and KOOS has been operated in 2012. KOOS is consists of several operational modules of numerical models and real-time observations and produces the basic forecasting variables such as winds, tides, waves, currents, temperature and salinity and so on. In practical application systems include storm surges, oil spills, and search and rescue prediction models. In particular, abnormal high waves (swell-like high-height waves) have occurred in the East coast of Korea peninsula during winter season owing to the local meteorological condition over the East Sea, causing property damages and the loss of human lives. In order to improve wave forecast accuracy even very local wave characteristics, numerical wave modeling system using SWAN is established with data assimilation module using 4D-EnKF and sensitivity test has been conducted. During the typhoon period for the prediction of sever waves and the decision making support system for evacuation of the ships, a high-resolution wave forecasting system has been established and calibrated.

  6. pSNOWPACK: a forecasting tool for avalanche warning services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bellaire

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Avalanche danger is often estimated based on snow cover stratigraphy and snow stability data. In Canada, single forecasting regions are very large (>50 000 km2 and snow cover data are often not available. To provide additional information on the snow cover and its seasonal evolution the Swiss snow cover model SNOWPACK was therefore coupled with a regional weather forecasting model GEM15. We assess the capability of this model chain (pSNOWPACK to forecast three key factors of snow cover instability at a single point: new snow amounts, surface hoar formation and crust formation. The output of GEM15 was compared to meteorological data from Mt. Fidelity, British Columbia, Canada, for five winters between 2005 and 2010. Forecasted precipitation amounts were generally over-estimated. The forecasted data were therefore filtered and used as input for the snow cover model. Comparison between the model output and manual observations showed that after pre-processing the input data the snow depth, new snow events and amounts were well modelled. Relevant critical layers, i.e. melt-freeze crusts and surface hoar layers were reproduced. Overall, the model chain pSNOWPACK shows promising potential as a forecasting tool for avalanche warning services in Canadian data sparse areas and could thus well be applied to similarly large regions elsewhere.

  7. A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. V. Martina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyses using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability.

  8. Warning Model for Shallow Landslides Induced by Extreme Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lien-Kwei Chien

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the geophysical properties of the landslide-prone catchment of the Gaoping River in Taiwan were investigated using zones based on landslide history in conjunction with landslide analysis using a deterministic approach based on the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability model. Typhoon Morakot in 2009 was selected as a simulation scenario to calibrate the combination of geophysical parameters in each zone before analyzing changes in the factor of safety (FS. Considering the amount of response time required for typhoons, suitable FS thresholds for landslide warnings are proposed for each town in the catchment area. Typhoon Fanapi of 2010 was used as a test scenario to verify the applicability of the FS as well as the efficacy of the cumulative rainfall thresholds derived in this study. Finally, the amount of response time provided by the FS thresholds in cases of yellow and red alerts was determined. All five of the landslide events reported by the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau were listed among the unstable sites identified in the proposed model, thereby demonstrating its effectiveness and accuracy in determining unstable areas and areas that require evacuation. These cumulative rainfall thresholds provide a valuable reference to guide disaster prevention authorities in the issuance of yellow and red alerts with the ability to reduce losses and save lives.

  9. Reality Check Algorithm for Complex Sources in Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakus, G.; Heaton, T. H.

    2013-12-01

    In almost all currently operating earthquake early warning (EEW) systems, presently available seismic data are used to predict future shaking. In most cases, location and magnitude are estimated. We are developing an algorithm to test the goodness of that prediction in real time. We monitor envelopes of acceleration, velocity, and displacement; if they deviate significantly from the envelope predicted by Cua's envelope gmpe's then we declare an overfit (perhaps false alarm) or an underfit (possibly a larger event has just occurred). This algorithm is designed to provide a robust measure and to work as quickly as possible in real-time. We monitor the logarithm of the ratio between the envelopes of the ongoing observed event and the envelopes derived from the predicted envelopes of channels of ground motion of the Virtual Seismologist (VS) (Cua, G. and Heaton, T.). Then, we recursively filter this result with a simple running median (de-spiking operator) to minimize the effect of one single high value. Depending on the result of the filtered value we make a decision such as if this value is large enough (e.g., >1), then we would declare, 'that a larger event is in progress', or similarly if this value is small enough (e.g., <-1), then we would declare a false alarm. We design the algorithm to work at a wide range of amplitude scales; that is, it should work for both small and large events.

  10. Feasibility study on earthquake early warning application to schools: the example of the ITIS 'E. Majorana', Somma Vesuviana, Naples (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emolo, Antonio; Zollo, Aldo; Picozzi, Matteo; Martino, Claudio; Elia, Luca; Verderame, Gerardo; De Risi, Maria Teresa; Ricci, Paolo; Lombardi, Anna; Bindi, Dino; Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Miranda, Nicola

    2014-05-01

    One of the main objective of the WP7 (Strategic Applications and Capacity Building) in the framework of the REAKT-Strategies and tools for Real Time Earthquake RisK ReducTion FP7 European project, is to evaluate the effectiveness of EEW and real-time risk assessment procedures in reducing seismic risk to various industrial partners and end-users. In the context of the REAKT project, the AMRA-RISSCLab group is engaged in a feasibility study on the application of earthquake early-warning procedures in two high schools located in the Irpinia region (South Italy), an area that in the 1980 was struck by a magnitude 6.9 earthquake. In this work we report on the activities carried out during the last 24 Months at the school ITIS 'E. Majorana', located in Somma Vesuviana, a village in the neighbourhood of Naples. In order to perform a continuous seismic monitoring of the site, which includes a rather complex structure building, 5 accelerometric stations have been installed in different part of the school. In particular, a 24-bit ADC (Sigma/Delta) Agecodagis-Kefren data-logger has been installed with a Guralp CMG-5TC accelerometer with a 0.25g full-scale in the school courtyard, while 4 SOSEWIN sensors have been also installed at different locations within the building. Commercial ADSL lines provide transmission of real-time data to the EEW centre. Data streams are now acquired in real-time in the PRESToPlus (regional and on-site, threshold-based early-warning) software platform [1]. The recent December 29, 2013 M 5.1 Monti del Matese Earthquake, gave us the unique opportunity to use real strong motion data to test the performance of threshold-based early warning method at the school. The on-site method [2] aims to define alert levels at the monitored site. In particular, at each station the characteristic P-waves period (τc) and the peak displacement (Pd) are measured on the initial P-wave signal. They are compared with threshold values, previously established through an

  11. Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2017-04-01

    In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating

  12. Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

    2015-04-01

    The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and

  13. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

    2013-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

  14. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M.; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-01-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are...

  15. Dead Bird Clusters as an Early Warning System for West Nile Virus Activity

    OpenAIRE

    2003-01-01

    An early warning system for West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks could provide a basis for targeted public education and surveillance activities as well as more timely larval and adult mosquito control. We adapted the spatial scan statistic for prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks, applied the results to data on dead birds reported from New York City in 2000, and reviewed its utility in providing an early warning of WNV activity in 2001. Prospective geographic cluster analysis of ...

  16. Developing models to estimate the benefits from flood warnings: executive summary

    OpenAIRE

    Parker, Dennis J.; Priest, Sally J.; Tapsell, Sue M.; Handmer, John W.; Schildt, Anne

    2008-01-01

    Flood forecasting and warning systems have a significant role to play within integrated flood risk management, either in combination with mobile structural flood defences or as part of an approach which combines a number of non-structural measures. In theory the benefits of flood warnings, in terms of community security, protection of life and flood damage reduction, should be large. The theoretical benefit potential is being driven upwards by important advances in the predictive sciences, an...

  17. National women's knowledge of stroke warning signs, overall and by race/ethnic group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochari-Greenberger, Heidi; Towfighi, Amytis; Mosca, Lori

    2014-04-01

    Recognition of stroke warning signs may reduce treatment delays. The purpose of this study was to evaluate contemporary knowledge of stroke warning signs and knowledge to call 9-1-1, among a nationally representative sample of women, overall and by race/ethnic group. A study of cardiovascular disease awareness was conducted by the American Heart Association in 2012 among English-speaking US women ≥25 years identified through random-digit dialing (n=1205; 54% white, 17% black, 17% Hispanic, and 12% other). Knowledge of stroke warning signs, and what to do first if experiencing stroke warning signs, was assessed by standardized open-ended questions. Half of women surveyed (51%) identified sudden weakness/numbness of face/limb on one side as a stroke warning sign; this did not vary by race/ethnic group. Loss of/trouble talking/understanding speech was identified by 44% of women, more frequently among white versus Hispanic women (48% versus 36%; P<0.05). Fewer than 1 in 4 women identified sudden severe headache (23%), unexplained dizziness (20%), or sudden dimness/loss of vision (18%) as warning signs, and 1 in 5 (20%) did not know 1 stroke warning sign. The majority of women said that they would call 9-1-1 first if they thought they were experiencing signs of a stroke (84%), and this did not vary among black (86%), Hispanic (79%), or white/other (85%) women. Knowledge of stroke warning signs was low among a nationally representative sample of women, especially among Hispanics. In contrast, knowledge to call 9-1-1 when experiencing signs of stroke was high.

  18. Toxic Algae and Early Warning Management in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song; Lun; Song; Guangjun; Song; Yonggang; Xu; Xiaohong

    2014-01-01

    The research status of toxic algae in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are reviewed from the aspects of toxicity characteristics,toxic mechanism and early warning management,and the existing toxic algae and their toxicity in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are analyzed in the paper. The early warning level of toxic algae in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea of China is put forward,and the research direction of shellfish poisoning in future is summarized.

  19. REMOTE OPERATION OF THE WEST COAST AND ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alec H. Medbery

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The remote control of real time derivation of earthquake location and magnitude and the issuance of tsunami and earthquake bulletins was done using off-the-shelf remote control software and hardware. Such remote operation of the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center can decrease the time needed to respond to an earthquake by eliminating travel from the duty standers’ home to the tsunami warning center.

  20. Distribution of new graphic warning labels: Are tobacco companies following regulations?

    OpenAIRE

    Hoek Janet; Edwards Richard; Li Judy; Peace Jo; Wilson Nick; Stanley James; Thomson George

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Objective To test the hypothesis that tobacco companies would not follow a regulation that required seven new graphic health warnings (GHWs) to be evenly distributed on cigarette packs and that they would distribute fewer packs featuring warnings regarded by smokers as being more disturbing. Methods Cross-sectional survey of purchased packs (n = 168) and street-collected discarded packs (convenience sample of New Zealand cities and towns, n = 1208 packs) with statistical analysis of ...