Future Freshwater Stress on Small Islands: Population, Aridity and Global Warming Targets

Science.gov (United States)

Karnauskas, K. B.; Schleussner, C. F.; Donnelly, J. P.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Future freshwater stress, including geographic and seasonal variability, has important implications for climate change adaptation scenarios for vulnerable human populations living on islands across the world ocean. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here we apply a recently developed methodology to project future changes in aridity in combination with population projections associated with different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. By accounting for evaporative demand a posteriori, we reveal a robust yet spatially variable tendency towards increasing aridity for 16 million people living on islands by mid-century. Although about half of the islands are projected to experience increased rainfall—predominantly in the deep tropics—projected changes in evaporation are more uniform, shifting the global distribution of changes in island freshwater balance towards greater aridity. In many cases, the magnitude of projected drying is comparable to the amplitude of the estimated observed interannual variability, with important consequences for extreme events. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially towards the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. Particularly across the Caribbean region, a

Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, Tom K. R.; Wilby, Robert L.; Murphy, Conor

2017-04-01

In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.

Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, Tom K R; Wilby, Robert L; Murphy, Conor

2017-04-11

In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.

Climate impacts on human livelihoods at 1.5° and 2° of warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lissner, Tabea

2017-04-01

The measurement of impacts of climate change on socio-economic systems remains challenging and especially multi-dimensional outcome measures remain scarce. Climate impacts can directly affect many dimensions of human livelihoods, which cannot be addressed by monetary assessments alone. Multi-dimensional measures are essential in order to understand the full range of consequences of climate change and to understand the costs that higher levels of warming may have, not only in economic terms, but also in terms of non-market impacts on human livelihood. The AHEAD framework aims at measuring "Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development" in a multi-dimensional framework, allowing to focus on resources and conditions which are a requirement to attain well-being. In this contribution we build on previous implementations of AHEAD and focus on differences in climate impacts at 1.5° and 2° of warming in order to improve our understanding of the societal consequences of these different warming levels.

Demographics of an ornate box turtle population experiencing minimal human-induced disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Converse, S.J.; Iverson, J.B.; Savidge, J.A.

2005-01-01

Human-induced disturbances may threaten the viability of many turtle populations, including populations of North American box turtles. Evaluation of the potential impacts of these disturbances can be aided by long-term studies of populations subject to minimal human activity. In such a population of ornate box turtles (Terrapene ornata ornata) in western Nebraska, we examined survival rates and population growth rates from 1981-2000 based on mark-recapture data. The average annual apparent survival rate of adult males was 0.883 (SE = 0.021) and of adult females was 0.932 (SE = 0.014). Minimum winter temperature was the best of five climate variables as a predictor of adult survival. Survival rates were highest in years with low minimum winter temperatures, suggesting that global warming may result in declining survival. We estimated an average adult population growth rate (????) of 1.006 (SE = 0.065), with an estimated temporal process variance (????2) of 0.029 (95% CI = 0.005-0.176). Stochastic simulations suggest that this mean and temporal process variance would result in a 58% probability of a population decrease over a 20-year period. This research provides evidence that, unless unknown density-dependent mechanisms are operating in the adult age class, significant human disturbances, such as commercial harvest or turtle mortality on roads, represent a potential risk to box turtle populations. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore.

Science.gov (United States)

Albon, Steve D; Irvine, R Justin; Halvorsen, Odd; Langvatn, Rolf; Loe, Leif E; Ropstad, Erik; Veiberg, Vebjørn; van der Wal, René; Bjørkvoll, Eirin M; Duff, Elizabeth I; Hansen, Brage B; Lee, Aline M; Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun

2017-04-01

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a

Humid Heat Waves at different warming levels

Science.gov (United States)

Russo, S.; Sillmann, J.; Sterl, A.

2017-12-01

The co-occurrence of consecutive hot and humid days during a heat wave can strongly affect human health. Here, we quantify humid heat wave hazard in the recent past and at different levels of global warming.We find that the magnitude and apparent temperature peak of heat waves, such as the ones observed in Chicago in 1995 and China in 2003, have been strongly amplified by humidity. Climate model projections suggest that the percentage of area where heat wave magnitude and peak are amplified by humidity increases with increasing warming levels. Considering the effect of humidity at 1.5o and 2o global warming, highly populated regions, such as the Eastern US and China, could experience heat waves with magnitude greater than the one in Russia in 2010 (the most severe of the present era).The apparent temperature peak during such humid-heat waves can be greater than 55o. According to the US Weather Service, at this temperature humans are very likely to suffer from heat strokes. Humid-heat waves with these conditions were never exceeded in the present climate, but are expected to occur every other year at 4o global warming. This calls for respective adaptation measures in some key regions of the world along with international climate change mitigation efforts.

Recent evolution and divergence among populations of a rare Mexican endemic, Chihuahua spruce, following holocene climatic warming

Science.gov (United States)

F. Thomas Ledig; Virginia Jacob-Cervantes; Paul D. Hodgskiss

1997-01-01

Fragmentation and reduction in population size are expected to reduce genetic diversity. However, examples from natural populations of forest trees are scarce. The range of Chihuahua spruce retreated northward and fragmented coincident with the warming climate that marked the early Holocene. The isolated populations vary from 15 to 2441 trees, which provided an...

A Conceptual Framework for Planning Systemic Human Adaptation to Global Warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G

2015-08-31

Human activity is having multiple, inter-related effects on ecosystems. Greenhouse gas emissions persisting along current trajectories threaten to significantly alter human society. At 0.85 °C of anthropogenic warming, deleterious human impacts are acutely evident. Additional warming of 0.5 °C-1.0 °C from already emitted CO₂ will further intensify extreme heat and damaging storm events. Failing to sufficiently address this trend will have a heavy human toll directly and indirectly on health. Along with mitigation efforts, societal adaptation to a warmer world is imperative. Adaptation efforts need to be significantly upscaled to prepare society to lessen the public health effects of rising temperatures. Modifying societal behaviour is inherently complex and presents a major policy challenge. We propose a social systems framework for conceptualizing adaptation that maps out three domains within the adaptation policy landscape: acclimatisation, behavioural adaptation and technological adaptation, which operate at societal and personal levels. We propose that overlaying this framework on a systems approach to societal change planning methods will enhance governments' capacity and efficacy in strategic planning for adaptation. This conceptual framework provides a policy oriented planning assessment tool that will help planners match interventions to the behaviours being targeted for change. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the framework's application as a planning tool.

How did Humans Adapt in the Eastern Farming-pastoral zone during the Medieval Warm Period?

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, X.

2017-12-01

With its extremely warm climate, the "medieval warm period" is considered analogous to the climate change humans are likely to face due to future global warming. Thus, the ability of humans to adapt to an extremely warm climate during the medieval period in Eurasia's farming-pastoral zone has attracted some attention. The warmth of the climate during this period (900-1300 BC) is demonstrated by evidence of bamboo in charcoal remains and phytoliths found in the settlement sites and tomb murals of the Western Liao river basin in Northeast China. This warmth probably promoted agricultural diversification, as the presence of foxtail millet, broomcorn millet, wheat, barley, soybean, hemp, and buckwheat in this region can be seen in plant seeds and phytoliths found in archaeological sites. The bones of deer and birds also provide evidence of hunting, and the practice of animal husbandry is indicated in pig, dog, cattle, ovicaprid, horse and camel bones. Diversity in food structures is also shown in stable isotopes from human and animal bones. Competence in animal husbandry and hunting, and the availability of stable food resources may have contributed to the rise of the Liao people in military prowess and power, and promoted the expansion of Khitan-Liao culture.

Anthropogenics: human influence on global and genetic homogenization of parasite populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zarlenga, Dante S; Hoberg, Eric; Rosenthal, Benjamin; Mattiucci, Simonetta; Nascetti, Giuseppe

2014-12-01

The distribution, abundance, and diversity of life on Earth have been greatly shaped by human activities. This includes the geographic expansion of parasites; however, measuring the extent to which humans have influenced the dissemination and population structure of parasites has been challenging. In-depth comparisons among parasite populations extending to landscape-level processes affecting disease emergence have remained elusive. New research methods have enhanced our capacity to discern human impact, where the tools of population genetics and molecular epidemiology have begun to shed light on our historical and ongoing influence. Only since the 1990s have parasitologists coupled morphological diagnosis, long considered the basis of surveillance and biodiversity studies, with state-of-the-art tools enabling variation to be examined among, and within, parasite populations. Prior to this time, populations were characterized only by phenotypic attributes such as virulence, infectivity, host range, and geographical location. The advent of genetic/molecular methodologies (multilocus allozyme electrophoresis, polymerase chain reaction-DNA [PCR-DNA] fragments analysis, DNA sequencing, DNA microsatellites, single nucleotide polymorphisms, etc.) have transformed our abilities to reveal variation among, and within, populations at local, regional, landscape, and global scales, and thereby enhanced our understanding of the biosphere. Numerous factors can affect population structure among parasites, e.g., evolutionary and ecological history, mode of reproduction and transmission, host dispersal, and life-cycle complexity. Although such influences can vary considerably among parasite taxa, anthropogenic factors are demonstrably perturbing parasite fauna. Minimal genetic structure among many geographically distinct (isolated) populations is a hallmark of human activity, hastened by geographic introductions, environmental perturbation, and global warming. Accelerating

Climate Warming as a Possible Trigger of Keystone Mussel Population Decline in Oligotrophic Rivers at the Continental Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolotov, Ivan N; Makhrov, Alexander A; Gofarov, Mikhail Yu; Aksenova, Olga V; Aspholm, Paul E; Bespalaya, Yulia V; Kabakov, Mikhail B; Kolosova, Yulia S; Kondakov, Alexander V; Ofenböck, Thomas; Ostrovsky, Andrew N; Popov, Igor Yu; von Proschwitz, Ted; Rudzīte, Mudīte; Rudzītis, Māris; Sokolova, Svetlana E; Valovirta, Ilmari; Vikhrev, Ilya V; Vinarski, Maxim V; Zotin, Alexey A

2018-01-08

The effects of climate change on oligotrophic rivers and their communities are almost unknown, albeit these ecosystems are the primary habitat of the critically endangered freshwater pearl mussel and its host fishes, salmonids. The distribution and abundance of pearl mussels have drastically decreased throughout Europe over the last century, particularly within the southern part of the range, but causes of this wide-scale extinction process are unclear. Here we estimate the effects of climate change on pearl mussels based on historical and recent samples from 50 rivers and 6 countries across Europe. We found that the shell convexity may be considered an indicator of the thermal effects on pearl mussel populations under warming climate because it reflects shifts in summer temperatures and is significantly different in viable and declining populations. Spatial and temporal modeling of the relationship between shell convexity and population status show that global climate change could have accelerated the population decline of pearl mussels over the last 100 years through rapidly decreasing suitable distribution areas. Simulation predicts future warming-induced range reduction, particularly in southern regions. These results highlight the importance of large-scale studies of keystone species, which can underscore the hidden effects of climate warming on freshwater ecosystems.

A Conceptual Framework for Planning Systemic Human Adaptation to Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter W. Tait

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Human activity is having multiple, inter-related effects on ecosystems. Greenhouse gas emissions persisting along current trajectories threaten to significantly alter human society. At 0.85 °C of anthropogenic warming, deleterious human impacts are acutely evident. Additional warming of 0.5 °C–1.0 °C from already emitted CO2 will further intensify extreme heat and damaging storm events. Failing to sufficiently address this trend will have a heavy human toll directly and indirectly on health. Along with mitigation efforts, societal adaptation to a warmer world is imperative. Adaptation efforts need to be significantly upscaled to prepare society to lessen the public health effects of rising temperatures. Modifying societal behaviour is inherently complex and presents a major policy challenge. We propose a social systems framework for conceptualizing adaptation that maps out three domains within the adaptation policy landscape: acclimatisation, behavioural adaptation and technological adaptation, which operate at societal and personal levels. We propose that overlaying this framework on a systems approach to societal change planning methods will enhance governments’ capacity and efficacy in strategic planning for adaptation. This conceptual framework provides a policy oriented planning assessment tool that will help planners match interventions to the behaviours being targeted for change. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the framework’s application as a planning tool.

A Conceptual Framework for Planning Systemic Human Adaptation to Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Tait, Peter W.; Hanna, Elizabeth G.

2015-01-01

Human activity is having multiple, inter-related effects on ecosystems. Greenhouse gas emissions persisting along current trajectories threaten to significantly alter human society. At 0.85 °C of anthropogenic warming, deleterious human impacts are acutely evident. Additional warming of 0.5 °C–1.0 °C from already emitted CO2 will further intensify extreme heat and damaging storm events. Failing to sufficiently address this trend will have a heavy human toll directly and indirectly on health. Along with mitigation efforts, societal adaptation to a warmer world is imperative. Adaptation efforts need to be significantly upscaled to prepare society to lessen the public health effects of rising temperatures. Modifying societal behaviour is inherently complex and presents a major policy challenge. We propose a social systems framework for conceptualizing adaptation that maps out three domains within the adaptation policy landscape: acclimatisation, behavioural adaptation and technological adaptation, which operate at societal and personal levels. We propose that overlaying this framework on a systems approach to societal change planning methods will enhance governments’ capacity and efficacy in strategic planning for adaptation. This conceptual framework provides a policy oriented planning assessment tool that will help planners match interventions to the behaviours being targeted for change. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the framework’s application as a planning tool. PMID:26334285

Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Xinru; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-03-29

Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal-spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus ), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

Greenhouse Warming Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Bent Erik

2016-01-01

The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence...... the greenhouse warming, and the impacts of the warming may again impact the wellbeing of human societies. Thus physical modeling of the near-surface ocean-soil-atmosphere system cannot be carried out without an idea of the development of human activities, which is done by scenario analysis. The interactive...

Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion

OpenAIRE

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W.; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

2016-01-01

The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth?s largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world?s highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previou...

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

OpenAIRE

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-01-01

Background Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises...

Effect of Temperature Rising on the Stygobitic Crustacean Species Diacyclops belgicus: Does Global Warming Affect Groundwater Populations?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiziana Di Lorenzo

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The average global temperature is predicted to increase by 3 °C by the end of this century due to human-induced climate change. The overall metabolism of the aquatic biota will be directly affected by rising temperatures and associated changes. Since thermal stability is a characteristic of groundwater ecosystems, global warming is expected to have a profound effect on the groundwater fauna. The prediction that stygobitic (obligate groundwater dweller species are vulnerable to climate change includes assumptions about metabolic effects that can only be tested by comparisons across a thermal gradient. To this end, we investigated the effects of two different thermal regimes on the metabolism of the stygobitic copepod species Diacyclops belgicus (Kiefer, 1936. We measured the individual-based oxygen consumption of this species as a proxy of possible metabolic reactions to temperature rising from 14 to 17 °C. We used a sealed glass microplate equipped with planar oxygen sensor spots with optical isolation glued onto the bottom of 80-μL wells integrated with a 24-channel fluorescence-based respirometry system. The tests have provided controversial results according to which the D. belgicus populations should be prudently considered at risk under a global warming scenario.

Simulated warming differentially affects the growth and competitive ability of Centaurea maculosa populations from home and introduced ranges.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Ming He

Full Text Available Climate warming may drive invasions by exotic plants, thereby raising concerns over the risks of invasive plants. However, little is known about how climate warming influences the growth and competitive ability of exotic plants from their home and introduced ranges. We conducted a common garden experiment with an invasive plant Centaurea maculosa and a native plant Poa pratensis, in which a mixture of sand and vermiculite was used as a neutral medium, and contrasted the total biomass, competitive effects, and competitive responses of C. maculosa populations from Europe (home range and North America (introduced range under two different temperatures. The warming-induced inhibitory effects on the growth of C. maculosa alone were stronger in Europe than in North America. The competitive ability of C. maculosa plants from North America was greater than that of plants from Europe under the ambient condition whereas this competitive ability followed the opposite direction under the warming condition, suggesting that warming may enable European C. maculosa to be more invasive. Across two continents, warming treatment increased the competitive advantage instead of the growth advantage of C. maculosa, suggesting that climate warming may facilitate C. maculosa invasions through altering competitive outcomes between C. maculosa and its neighbors. Additionally, the growth response of C. maculosa to warming could predict its ability to avoid being suppressed by its neighbors.

Simulated warming differentially affects the growth and competitive ability of Centaurea maculosa populations from home and introduced ranges.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Wei-Ming; Li, Jing-Ji; Peng, Pei-Hao

2012-01-01

Climate warming may drive invasions by exotic plants, thereby raising concerns over the risks of invasive plants. However, little is known about how climate warming influences the growth and competitive ability of exotic plants from their home and introduced ranges. We conducted a common garden experiment with an invasive plant Centaurea maculosa and a native plant Poa pratensis, in which a mixture of sand and vermiculite was used as a neutral medium, and contrasted the total biomass, competitive effects, and competitive responses of C. maculosa populations from Europe (home range) and North America (introduced range) under two different temperatures. The warming-induced inhibitory effects on the growth of C. maculosa alone were stronger in Europe than in North America. The competitive ability of C. maculosa plants from North America was greater than that of plants from Europe under the ambient condition whereas this competitive ability followed the opposite direction under the warming condition, suggesting that warming may enable European C. maculosa to be more invasive. Across two continents, warming treatment increased the competitive advantage instead of the growth advantage of C. maculosa, suggesting that climate warming may facilitate C. maculosa invasions through altering competitive outcomes between C. maculosa and its neighbors. Additionally, the growth response of C. maculosa to warming could predict its ability to avoid being suppressed by its neighbors.

Policy implications of greenhouse warming: Mitigation, adaptation, and the science base

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This book discusses the policy implications of greenhouse warming by examining three major areas: general summary of information about the greenhouse effect leading to a framework for policy; the science basis for the greenhouse effect; mitigation of greenhouse warming. Each section contains 9-13 chapters on specific subjects including the following: overview of greenhouse gases; policy implications; internations considerations; climate records and models; sea levels; temperature rise estimation; energy management at several levels; nonenergy emission reduction; human populations; deforestation. Conclusions are summarized at the end of each section

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

Global Warming Denial: The Human Brain on Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Marrouch, N.; Johnson, B. T.; Slawinska, J. M.

2016-12-01

Future assessments of climate change rely on multi-model intercomparisons, and projections of the extreme events frequency are of particular interest as associated with significant economic costs and social threats. Notably, systematically simulated increases in the number of extreme weather events agree well with observational data over the last decade. At the same time, as the climate grows more volatile, widespread denial of climate change and its anthropocentric causes continues to proliferate (based on nationally representative U.S. polls). Simultaneous increases in both high-impact exposure and its denial is in stark contrast with our knowledge of socio-natural dynamics and its models. Disentangling this paradox requires an understanding of the origins of global warming denial at an individual level, and how subsequently it propagates across social networks of many scales, shaping global policies. However, as the real world and its dynamical models are complex (high-dimensional and coupled), separating the particular feedback of interest remains a challenge. Here, we demonstrate this feedback in a controlled experiment, where increasing unpredictability using helplessness-training paradigms induces changes in global warming denial, and the endorsement of conservative ideology. We explain these results in the context of evolutionary theory framing self-deception and denial as remnants of evolutionary processes that shaped and facilitated the survival of the human species. Further we link these findings to changes in neural and higher-level cognitive processes in response to unpredictable stimuli. We argue that climate change denial is an example of an extreme belief system that carries the potential to threaten the wellbeing of both humans and other species alike. It is therefore crucial to better quantify climate denial using social informatics tools that provide the means to improve its representations in coupled socio-geophysical models to mitigate its

Human population and carbon dioxide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schaffer, W.M.

2008-01-01

A recently proposed model of human population and carbon utilization is reviewed. Depending on parameter values, one of three possible long-term outcomes is obtained. (1) Atmospheric carbon, (CO 2 ) atm , and human populations equilibrate at positive values. (2) The human population stabilizes, while (CO 2 ) atm increases without bound. (3) The human population goes extinct and atmospheric carbon declines to 0. The final possibility is qualitatively compatible with both 'consensus' views of climate change and the opinions of those who are more impressed with the manifestly adverse consequences of carbon-mitigation to human reproduction and survival

Thermal specialization across large geographical scales predicts the resilience of mangrove crab populations to global warming

KAUST Repository

Fusi, Marco; Giomi, Folco; Babbini, Simone; Daffonchio, Daniele; Mcquaid, Christopher D.; Porri, Francesca; Cannicci, Stefano

2014-01-01

The broad prediction that ectotherms will be more vulnerable to climate change in the tropics than in temperate regions includes assumptions about centre/edge population effects that can only be tested by within-species comparisons across wide latitudinal gradients. Here, we investigated the thermal vulnerability of two mangrove crab species, comparing populations at the centre (Kenya) and edge (South Africa) of their distributions. At the same time, we investigated the role of respiratory mode (water- versus air-breathing) in determining the thermal tolerance in amphibious organisms. To do this, we compared the vulnerability to acute temperature fluctuations of two sympatric species with two different lifestyle adaptations: the free living Perisesarma guttatum and the burrowing Uca urvillei, both pivotal to the ecosystem functioning of mangroves. The results revealed the air-breathing U. urvillei to be a thermal generalist with much higher thermal tolerances than P. guttatum. Importantly, however, we found that, while U. urvillei showed little difference between edge and centre populations, P. guttatum showed adaptation to local conditions. Equatorial populations had elevated tolerances to acute heat stress and mechanisms of partial thermoregulation, which make them less vulnerable to global warming than temperate conspecifics. The results reveal both the importance of respiratory mode to thermal tolerance and the unexpected potential for low latitude populations/species to endure a warming climate. The results also contribute to a conceptual model on the latitudinal thermal tolerance of these key species. This highlights the need for an integrated population-level approach to predict the consequences of climate change. © 2014 The Authors.

Thermal specialization across large geographical scales predicts the resilience of mangrove crab populations to global warming

KAUST Repository

Fusi, Marco

2014-11-18

The broad prediction that ectotherms will be more vulnerable to climate change in the tropics than in temperate regions includes assumptions about centre/edge population effects that can only be tested by within-species comparisons across wide latitudinal gradients. Here, we investigated the thermal vulnerability of two mangrove crab species, comparing populations at the centre (Kenya) and edge (South Africa) of their distributions. At the same time, we investigated the role of respiratory mode (water- versus air-breathing) in determining the thermal tolerance in amphibious organisms. To do this, we compared the vulnerability to acute temperature fluctuations of two sympatric species with two different lifestyle adaptations: the free living Perisesarma guttatum and the burrowing Uca urvillei, both pivotal to the ecosystem functioning of mangroves. The results revealed the air-breathing U. urvillei to be a thermal generalist with much higher thermal tolerances than P. guttatum. Importantly, however, we found that, while U. urvillei showed little difference between edge and centre populations, P. guttatum showed adaptation to local conditions. Equatorial populations had elevated tolerances to acute heat stress and mechanisms of partial thermoregulation, which make them less vulnerable to global warming than temperate conspecifics. The results reveal both the importance of respiratory mode to thermal tolerance and the unexpected potential for low latitude populations/species to endure a warming climate. The results also contribute to a conceptual model on the latitudinal thermal tolerance of these key species. This highlights the need for an integrated population-level approach to predict the consequences of climate change. © 2014 The Authors.

Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedlingstein, Pierre; Solomon, Susan

2005-08-02

We developed a highly simplified approach to estimate the contributions of the past and present human generations to the increase of atmospheric CO(2) and associated global average temperature increases. For each human generation of adopted 25-year length, we use simplified emission test cases to estimate the committed warming passed to successive children, grandchildren, and later generations. We estimate that the last and the current generation contributed approximately two thirds of the present-day CO(2)-induced warming. Because of the long time scale required for removal of CO(2) from the atmosphere as well as the time delays characteristic of physical responses of the climate system, global mean temperatures are expected to increase by several tenths of a degree for at least the next 20 years even if CO(2) emissions were immediately cut to zero; that is, there is a commitment to additional CO(2)-induced warming even in the absence of emissions. If the rate of increase of CO(2) emissions were to continue up to 2025 and then were cut to zero, a temperature increase of approximately 1.3 degrees C compared to preindustrial conditions would still occur in 2100, whereas a constant-CO(2)-emissions scenario after 2025 would more than double the 2100 warming. These calculations illustrate the manner in which each generation inherits substantial climate change caused by CO(2) emissions that occurred previously, particularly those of their parents, and shows that current CO(2) emissions will contribute significantly to the climate change of future generations.

Forecasting wildlife response to rapid warming in the Alaskan Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Flint, Paul L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Koch, Joshua C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Oakley, Karen L.; Pearce, John M.

2015-01-01

Arctic wildlife species face a dynamic and increasingly novel environment because of climate warming and the associated increase in human activity. Both marine and terrestrial environments are undergoing rapid environmental shifts, including loss of sea ice, permafrost degradation, and altered biogeochemical fluxes. Forecasting wildlife responses to climate change can facilitate proactive decisions that balance stewardship with resource development. In this article, we discuss the primary and secondary responses to physical climate-related drivers in the Arctic, associated wildlife responses, and additional sources of complexity in forecasting wildlife population outcomes. Although the effects of warming on wildlife populations are becoming increasingly well documented in the scientific literature, clear mechanistic links are often difficult to establish. An integrated science approach and robust modeling tools are necessary to make predictions and determine resiliency to change. We provide a conceptual framework and introduce examples relevant for developing wildlife forecasts useful to management decisions.

Northern range expansion of European populations of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi is associated with global warming-correlated genetic admixture and population-specific temperature adaptations.

Science.gov (United States)

Krehenwinkel, Henrik; Tautz, Diethard

2013-04-01

Poleward range expansions are observed for an increasing number of species, which may be an effect of global warming during the past decades. However, it is still not clear in how far these expansions reflect simple geographical shifts of species ranges, or whether new genetic adaptations play a role as well. Here, we analyse the expansion of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi into Northern Europe during the last century. We have used a range-wide sampling of contemporary populations and historical specimens from museums to trace the phylogeography and genetic changes associated with the range shift. Based on the analysis of mitochondrial, microsatellite and SNP markers, we observe a higher level of genetic diversity in the expanding populations, apparently due to admixture of formerly isolated lineages. Using reciprocal transplant experiments for testing overwintering tolerance, as well as temperature preference and tolerance tests in the laboratory, we find that the invading spiders have possibly shifted their temperature niche. This may be a key adaptation for survival in Northern latitudes. The museum samples allow a reconstruction of the invasion's genetic history. A first, small-scale range shift started around 1930, in parallel with the onset of global warming. A more massive invasion of Northern Europe associated with genetic admixture and morphological changes occurred in later decades. We suggest that the latter range expansion into far Northern latitudes may be a consequence of the admixture that provided the genetic material for adaptations to new environmental regimes. Hence, global warming could have facilitated the initial admixture of populations and this resulted in genetic lineages with new habitat preferences. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

Science.gov (United States)

Nabi, SA; Qader, SS

2009-01-01

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world. This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards. PMID:21483497

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.

2013-06-01

A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity. Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections with industrial and military guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)--here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.

The politics of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moss, N.

1991-01-01

The probable warming of the world over the next few decades due to human activity presents a unique threat. The threat of global warming has been brought about by the activities of the entire human race, and only action by a large part of the human race can slow down the process or halt it. Other unwanted effects of industrial activity are trans-national, and require international agreements to regulate them, most obviously radioactivity from nuclear power accidents, acid rain and river pollution; but climatic change, unlike these, is global. International negotiations are going on now to deal with the problem of global warming, mostly by reducing the emission of gases that contribute to it. These are preliminary, yet already different perceptions and conflicting interests are emerging. The aim of the present negotiations is a convention for the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) to be held in June 1992, the so-called ''Earth Summit''. (author)

Warm hands, cold heart: progressive whole-body cooling increases warm thermosensitivity of human hands and feet in a dose-dependent fashion.

Science.gov (United States)

Filingeri, Davide; Morris, Nathan B; Jay, Ollie

2017-01-01

What is the central question of this study? Investigations on inhibitory/facilitatory modulation of vision, touch and pain show that conditioning stimuli outside the receptive field of testing stimuli modulate the central processing of visual, touch and painful stimuli. We asked whether contextual modulation also exists in human temperature integration. What is the main finding and its importance? Progressive decreases in whole-body mean skin temperature (the conditioning stimulus) significantly increased local thermosensitivity to skin warming but not cooling (the testing stimuli) in a dose-dependent fashion. In resembling the central mechanisms underlying endogenous analgesia, our findings point to the existence of an endogenous thermosensory system in humans that could modulate local skin thermal sensitivity to facilitate thermal behaviour. Although inhibitory/facilitatory central modulation of vision and pain has been investigated, contextual modulation of skin temperature integration has not been explored. Hence, we tested whether progressive decreases in whole-body mean skin temperature (T sk ; a large conditioning stimulus) alter the magnitude estimation of local warming and cooling stimuli applied to hairy and glabrous skin. On four separate occasions, eight men (27 ± 5 years old) underwent a 30 min whole-body cooling protocol (water-perfused suit; temperature, 5°C), during which a quantitative thermosensory test, consisting of reporting the perceived magnitude of warming and cooling stimuli (±8°C from 30°C baseline) applied to the hand (palm/dorsum) and foot (sole/dorsum), was performed before cooling and every 10 min thereafter. The cooling protocol resulted in large progressive reductions in T sk [10 min, -3.36°C (95% confidence interval -2.62 to -4.10); 20 min, -5.21°C (-4.47 to -5.95); and 30 min, -6.32°C (-5.58 to -7.05); P fashion. In highlighting a novel feature of human temperature integration, these findings point to the existence

Climate: a planet and men: what human influence on climate warming?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orsenna, E.; Petit, M.; Chabreuil, A. and others

2011-01-01

The authors, all members of the 'Argonauts club', have decided with other scientists, to write this book in order to allow the reader to make his own opinion about the influence of human activities on global warming. The book presents and supplies precise answers to the questions about the climate machine and its complex mechanisms according to the present day state of scientific knowledge. It takes stock of the actual climate situation and of the overall possible means at our disposal to limit the extent of the harmful anthropic impact. (J.S.)

A real-time Global Warming Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J

2017-11-13

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

Global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houghton, John

2005-01-01

'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

Sewage Reflects the Microbiomes of Human Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Newton, Ryan J.; McLellan, Sandra L.; Dila, Deborah K.; Vineis, Joseph H.; Morrison, Hilary G.; Eren, A. Murat

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Molecular characterizations of the gut microbiome from individual human stool samples have identified community patterns that correlate with age, disease, diet, and other human characteristics, but resources for marker gene studies that consider microbiome trends among human populations scale with the number of individuals sampled from each population. As an alternative strategy for sampling populations, we examined whether sewage accurately reflects the microbial community of a mixture of stool samples. We used oligotyping of high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequence data to compare the bacterial distribution in a stool data set to a sewage influent data set from 71 U.S. cities. On average, only 15% of sewage sample sequence reads were attributed to human fecal origin, but sewage recaptured most (97%) human fecal oligotypes. The most common oligotypes in stool matched the most common and abundant in sewage. After informatically separating sequences of human fecal origin, sewage samples exhibited ~3× greater diversity than stool samples. Comparisons among municipal sewage communities revealed the ubiquitous and abundant occurrence of 27 human fecal oligotypes, representing an apparent core set of organisms in U.S. populations. The fecal community variability among U.S. populations was significantly lower than among individuals. It clustered into three primary community structures distinguished by oligotypes from either: Bacteroidaceae, Prevotellaceae, or Lachnospiraceae/Ruminococcaceae. These distribution patterns reflected human population variation and predicted whether samples represented lean or obese populations with 81 to 89% accuracy. Our findings demonstrate that sewage represents the fecal microbial community of human populations and captures population-level traits of the human microbiome. PMID:25714718

Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, John; Oreskes, Naomi; Doran, Peter T.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Verheggen, Bart; Maibach, Ed W.; Carlton, J. Stuart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Skuce, Andrew G.; Green, Sarah A.; Nuccitelli, Dana; Jacobs, Peter; Richardson, Mark; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Rice, Ken

2016-04-01

The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%-100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming (‘no position’) represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.

The Great Warming Brian Fagan

Science.gov (United States)

Fagan, B. M.

2010-12-01

The Great Warming is a journey back to the world of a thousand years ago, to the Medieval Warm Period. Five centuries of irregular warming from 800 to 1250 had beneficial effects in Europe and the North Atlantic, but brought prolonged droughts to much of the Americas and lands affected by the South Asian monsoon. The book describes these impacts of warming on medieval European societies, as well as the Norse and the Inuit of the far north, then analyzes the impact of harsh, lengthy droughts on hunting societies in western North America and the Ancestral Pueblo farmers of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. These peoples reacted to drought by relocating entire communities. The Maya civilization was much more vulnerable that small-scale hunter-gatherer societies and subsistence farmers in North America. Maya rulers created huge water storage facilities, but their civilization partially collapsed under the stress of repeated multiyear droughts, while the Chimu lords of coastal Peru adapted with sophisticated irrigation works. The climatic villain was prolonged, cool La Niñalike conditions in the Pacific, which caused droughts from Venezuela to East Asia, and as far west as East Africa. The Great Warming argues that the warm centuries brought savage drought to much of humanity, from China to Peru. It also argues that drought is one of the most dangerous elements in today’s humanly created global warming, often ignored by preoccupied commentators, but with the potential to cause over a billion people to starve. Finally, I use the book to discuss the issues and problems of communicating multidisciplinary science to the general public.

Global warming-setting the stages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

Most of us have heard or read about global warming. However, the messages we receive are often in conflict, raising more questions than answer. Is global warming a good or a bad thing? has it already started or is it part of our future? Are we, or are we not doing anything about it? Should we be concerned? This primer on Global Warming is designed to clear up some of this confusion by providing basic scientific information on global warming issue. It is clear that there is still much to learn about global warming. However, it is also clear that there is a lot that we already know - and that dose provide cause for concern. We must understand the global warming issue if we are to make wise decisions and take responsible actions in response to the challenges and opportunities posed by global warming. Chapter 1 of 'the primer on global Warming' set the stage with a brief overview of science of global warming within the context of climate change. In addition, it introduces the specific issues that surround the global warming problem. As far as the science of global warming is concerned the following questions are discussed. What is global climate? Is climate change natural? What causes climate to vary on a global scale? How does the composition of the atmosphere relate to climate change. but there are also certain issues discussed here which surround the global warming such as: If climate varies naturally, why is there a concern about 'global warming'? What are the potential consequences of 'global warning'. What human activities contribute to 'global warming'. (Author)

Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation

Science.gov (United States)

Metcalf, Jessica L.; Turney, Chris; Barnett, Ross; Martin, Fabiana; Bray, Sarah C.; Vilstrup, Julia T.; Orlando, Ludovic; Salas-Gismondi, Rodolfo; Loponte, Daniel; Medina, Matías; De Nigris, Mariana; Civalero, Teresa; Fernández, Pablo Marcelo; Gasco, Alejandra; Duran, Victor; Seymour, Kevin L.; Otaola, Clara; Gil, Adolfo; Paunero, Rafael; Prevosti, Francisco J.; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Wheeler, Jane C.; Borrero, Luis; Austin, Jeremy J.; Cooper, Alan

2016-01-01

The causes of Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions (60,000 to 11,650 years ago, hereafter 60 to 11.65 ka) remain contentious, with major phases coinciding with both human arrival and climate change around the world. The Americas provide a unique opportunity to disentangle these factors as human colonization took place over a narrow time frame (~15 to 14.6 ka) but during contrasting temperature trends across each continent. Unfortunately, limited data sets in South America have so far precluded detailed comparison. We analyze genetic and radiocarbon data from 89 and 71 Patagonian megafaunal bones, respectively, more than doubling the high-quality Pleistocene megafaunal radiocarbon data sets from the region. We identify a narrow megafaunal extinction phase 12,280 ± 110 years ago, some 1 to 3 thousand years after initial human presence in the area. Although humans arrived immediately prior to a cold phase, the Antarctic Cold Reversal stadial, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until the stadial finished and the subsequent warming phase commenced some 1 to 3 thousand years later. The increased resolution provided by the Patagonian material reveals that the sequence of climate and extinction events in North and South America were temporally inverted, but in both cases, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until human presence and climate warming coincided. Overall, metapopulation processes involving subpopulation connectivity on a continental scale appear to have been critical for megafaunal species survival of both climate change and human impacts. PMID:27386563

Health effects of global warming: Problems in assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Longstreth, J.

1993-06-01

Global warming is likely to result in a variety of environmental effects ranging from impacts on species diversity, changes in population size in flora and fauna, increases in sea level and possible impacts on the primary productivity of the sea. Potential impacts on human health and welfare have included possible increases in heat related mortality, changes in the distribution of disease vectors, and possible impacts on respiratory diseases including hayfever and asthma. Most of the focus thus far is on effects which are directly related to increases in temperature, e.g., heat stress or perhaps one step removed, e.g., changes in vector distribution. Some of the more severe impacts are likely to be much less direct, e.g., increases in migration due to agricultural failure following prolonged droughts. This paper discusses two possible approaches to the study of these less-direct impacts of global warming and presents information from on-going research using each of these approaches

Future directions in population health.

Science.gov (United States)

Hancock, T

1999-01-01

The long-term health of the population will be influenced by a number of major forces in the next century. In this brief review, particular emphasis is placed on environmental and economic forces. Major global environmental changes include climate change and global warming, resource depletion, ecotoxicity and reduced biodiversity. We do not yet know the impact on longevity of lifetime exposure to a mix of persistent toxic chemicals in our environment, since it has only been widespread in the past 40-50 years. The health impacts of global warming are only just beginning to be understood and could be profound. But perhaps the most profound threat to population health is economic growth, to the extent that it undermines environmental and social sustainability. We need a new form of capitalism, one that simultaneously increases environmental, social, economic and human capital, if population health is to be maintained in the 21st century.

Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. A. Tenreiro Machado

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

National Security Implications of Global Warming Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-01

Although numerous historical examples demonstrate how actual climate change has contributed to the rise and fall of powers, global warming , in and of...become convinced that global warming is universally bad and humans are the primary cause, political leaders may develop ill-advised policies restricting

Sewage reflects the microbiomes of human populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Newton, Ryan J; McLellan, Sandra L; Dila, Deborah K; Vineis, Joseph H; Morrison, Hilary G; Eren, A Murat; Sogin, Mitchell L

2015-02-24

Molecular characterizations of the gut microbiome from individual human stool samples have identified community patterns that correlate with age, disease, diet, and other human characteristics, but resources for marker gene studies that consider microbiome trends among human populations scale with the number of individuals sampled from each population. As an alternative strategy for sampling populations, we examined whether sewage accurately reflects the microbial community of a mixture of stool samples. We used oligotyping of high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequence data to compare the bacterial distribution in a stool data set to a sewage influent data set from 71 U.S. cities. On average, only 15% of sewage sample sequence reads were attributed to human fecal origin, but sewage recaptured most (97%) human fecal oligotypes. The most common oligotypes in stool matched the most common and abundant in sewage. After informatically separating sequences of human fecal origin, sewage samples exhibited ~3× greater diversity than stool samples. Comparisons among municipal sewage communities revealed the ubiquitous and abundant occurrence of 27 human fecal oligotypes, representing an apparent core set of organisms in U.S. populations. The fecal community variability among U.S. populations was significantly lower than among individuals. It clustered into three primary community structures distinguished by oligotypes from either: Bacteroidaceae, Prevotellaceae, or Lachnospiraceae/Ruminococcaceae. These distribution patterns reflected human population variation and predicted whether samples represented lean or obese populations with 81 to 89% accuracy. Our findings demonstrate that sewage represents the fecal microbial community of human populations and captures population-level traits of the human microbiome. The gut microbiota serves important functions in healthy humans. Numerous projects aim to define a healthy gut microbiome and its association with health states. However

Global warming and north-south solidarity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Islam, S.

1998-01-01

The discussion on climate change is based on 'contradictory certainties'. All sides claim to have found the truth. Much has been written and said about the connection between global warming, biodiversity and over population. The impoverished countries of the South se the insatiable intentions of the North as the major threat to the environment; and global warming as an excuse for stopping the economic development of the south

Different level of population differentiation among human genes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Dong-Dong; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2011-01-14

During the colonization of the world, after dispersal out of African, modern humans encountered changeable environments and substantial phenotypic variations that involve diverse behaviors, lifestyles and cultures, were generated among the different modern human populations. Here, we study the level of population differentiation among different populations of human genes. Intriguingly, genes involved in osteoblast development were identified as being enriched with higher FST SNPs, a result consistent with the proposed role of the skeletal system in accounting for variation among human populations. Genes involved in the development of hair follicles, where hair is produced, were also found to have higher levels of population differentiation, consistent with hair morphology being a distinctive trait among human populations. Other genes that showed higher levels of population differentiation include those involved in pigmentation, spermatid, nervous system and organ development, and some metabolic pathways, but few involved with the immune system. Disease-related genes demonstrate excessive SNPs with lower levels of population differentiation, probably due to purifying selection. Surprisingly, we find that Mendelian-disease genes appear to have a significant excessive of SNPs with high levels of population differentiation, possibly because the incidence and susceptibility of these diseases show differences among populations. As expected, microRNA regulated genes show lower levels of population differentiation due to purifying selection. Our analysis demonstrates different level of population differentiation among human populations for different gene groups.

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Bill

1994-01-01

A resource for the teaching of the history and causes of climate change. Discusses evidence of climate change from the Viking era, early ice ages, the most recent ice age, natural causes of climate change, human-made causes of climate change, projections of global warming, and unequal warming. (LZ)

Changes in Extreme Maximum Temperature Events and Population Exposure in China under Global Warming Scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C: Analysis Using the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

Science.gov (United States)

Zhan, Mingjin; Li, Xiucang; Sun, Hemin; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun

2018-02-01

We used daily maximum temperature data (1986-2100) from the COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode) regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events (EMTEs) with the intensity-area-duration method. Between 1986 and 2005 (reference period), the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330-1680 times yr-1, 31.4-33.3°C, and 1.76-3.88 million km2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5-392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986-2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13-6.84, 0.32-1.50, and 15.98%-30.68%, respectively, under 1.5°C warming; under 2.0°C warming, the increases are 1.73-12.48, 0.64-2.76, and 31.96%-50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5°C warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0°C warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%-39.2% and 26.6%-48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0°C warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0°C will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5°C.

Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Dosio, Alessandro; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Fischer, Erich M.; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-01

Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 °C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 °C world, under 2 °C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5 °C world, 13.8% of the world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9%) under 2 °C warming, i.e. a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will also result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and ~65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5 °C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2 °C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2 °C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5 °C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.

Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

2018-02-01

Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

Different level of population differentiation among human genes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Ya-Ping

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background During the colonization of the world, after dispersal out of African, modern humans encountered changeable environments and substantial phenotypic variations that involve diverse behaviors, lifestyles and cultures, were generated among the different modern human populations. Results Here, we study the level of population differentiation among different populations of human genes. Intriguingly, genes involved in osteoblast development were identified as being enriched with higher FST SNPs, a result consistent with the proposed role of the skeletal system in accounting for variation among human populations. Genes involved in the development of hair follicles, where hair is produced, were also found to have higher levels of population differentiation, consistent with hair morphology being a distinctive trait among human populations. Other genes that showed higher levels of population differentiation include those involved in pigmentation, spermatid, nervous system and organ development, and some metabolic pathways, but few involved with the immune system. Disease-related genes demonstrate excessive SNPs with lower levels of population differentiation, probably due to purifying selection. Surprisingly, we find that Mendelian-disease genes appear to have a significant excessive of SNPs with high levels of population differentiation, possibly because the incidence and susceptibility of these diseases show differences among populations. As expected, microRNA regulated genes show lower levels of population differentiation due to purifying selection. Conclusion Our analysis demonstrates different level of population differentiation among human populations for different gene groups.

The challenges of human population ageing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sander, Miriam; Oxlund, Bjarke; Jespersen, Astrid

2015-01-01

The 20th century saw an unprecedented increase in average human lifespan as well as a rapid decline in human fertility in many countries of the world. The accompanying worldwide change in demographics of human populations is linked to unanticipated and unprecedented economic, cultural, medical...... of Copenhagen (UCPH) and the Center for Healthy Ageing at UCPH, which took place on 20-21 June 2014 in Copenhagen, Denmark. Questions discussed here include the following: what is driving age-structural change in human populations? how can we create 'age-friendly' societies and promote 'ageing...

Is the enhancement of global warming important?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Symons, M.C.R.; Barrett, J.

2001-01-01

There is no doubt that global warming is important; without it the Earth's surface would have a mean temperature of 33 o C lower than it has currently. The IPCC maintains that human activities are to blame for the observed increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times. There are some doubts about whether global warming is being enhanced by the activities of the human race. This article reviews these doubts and the proposed remedies to the alleged enhancement. (author)

Human population in the biodiversity hotspots.

Science.gov (United States)

Cincotta, R P; Wisnewski, J; Engelman, R

2000-04-27

Biologists have identified 25 areas, called biodiversity hotspots, that are especially rich in endemic species and particularly threatened by human activities. The human population dynamics of these areas, however, are not well quantified. Here we report estimates of key demographic variables for each hotspot, and for three extensive tropical forest areas that are less immediately threatened. We estimate that in 1995 more than 1.1 billion people, nearly 20% of world population, were living within the hotspots, an area covering about 12% of Earth's terrestrial surface. We estimate that the population growth rate in the hotspots (1995-2000) is 1.8% yr(-1), substantially higher than the population growth rate of the world as a whole (1.3% yr(-1)) and above that of the developing countries (1.6% yr(-1)). These results suggest that substantial human-induced environmental changes are likely to continue in the hotspots and that demographic change remains an important factor in global biodiversity conservation. The results also underline the potential conservation significance of the continuing worldwide declines in human fertility and of policies and programs that influence human migration.

The effects of global warming on allergic diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, A W; Hon, K L; Leung, T F; Ho, M H; Rosa Duque, J S; Lee, T H

2018-05-29

Global warming is a public health emergency. Substantial scientific evidence indicates an unequivocal rising trend in global surface temperature that has caused higher atmospheric levels of moisture retention leading to more frequent extreme weather conditions, shrinking ice volume, and gradually rising sea levels. The concomitant rise in the prevalence of allergic diseases is closely related to these environmental changes because warm and moist environments favour the proliferation of common allergens such as pollens, dust mites, molds, and fungi. Global warming also stresses ecosystems, further accelerating critical biodiversity loss. Excessive carbon dioxide, together with the warming of seawater, promotes ocean acidification and oxygen depletion. This results in a progressive decline of phytoplankton and fish growth that in turn promotes the formation of larger oceanic dead zones, disrupting the food chain and biodiversity. Poor environmental biodiversity and a reduction in the microbiome spectrum are risk factors for allergic diseases in human populations. While climate change and the existence of an allergy epidemic are closely linked according to robust international research, efforts to mitigate these have encountered strong resistance because of vested economic and political concerns in different countries. International collaboration to establish legally binding regulations should be mandatory for forest protection and energy saving. Lifestyle and behavioural changes should also be advocated at the individual level by focusing on low carbon living; avoiding food wastage; and implementing the 4Rs: reduce, reuse, recycle, and replace principles. These lifestyle measures are entirely consistent with the current recommendations for allergy prevention. Efforts to mitigate climate change, preserve biodiversity, and prevent chronic diseases are interdependent disciplines.

Shifting suitability for malaria vectors across Africa with warming climates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peterson A Townsend

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Climates are changing rapidly, producing warm climate conditions globally not previously observed in modern history. Malaria is of great concern as a cause of human mortality and morbidity, particularly across Africa, thanks in large part to the presence there of a particularly competent suite of mosquito vector species. Methods I derive spatially explicit estimates of human populations living in regions newly suitable climatically for populations of two key Anopheles gambiae vector complex species in Africa over the coming 50 years, based on ecological niche model projections over two global climate models, two scenarios of climate change, and detailed spatial summaries of human population distributions. Results For both species, under all scenarios, given the changing spatial distribution of appropriate conditions and the current population distribution, the models predict a reduction of 11.3–30.2% in the percentage of the overall population living in areas climatically suitable for these vector species in coming decades, but reductions and increases are focused in different regions: malaria vector suitability is likely to decrease in West Africa, but increase in eastern and southern Africa. Conclusion Climate change effects on African malaria vectors shift their distributional potential from west to east and south, which has implications for overall numbers of people exposed to these vector species. Although the total is reduced, malaria is likely to pose novel public health problems in areas where it has not previously been common.

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Descamps, Sébastien; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Barrett, Robert T; Irons, David B; Merkel, Flemming; Robertson, Gregory J; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Mallory, Mark L; Montevecchi, William A; Boertmann, David; Artukhin, Yuri; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Gilchrist, H Grant; Labansen, Aili L; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Mosbech, Anders; Olsen, Bergur; Petersen, Aevar; Rail, Jean-Francois; Renner, Heather M; Strøm, Hallvard; Systad, Geir H; Wilhelm, Sabina I; Zelenskaya, Larisa

2017-09-01

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Extreme High-Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low-Warming Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia

2018-02-01

Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.

The Relational Concurrence of Global Warming and Economic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An attempt has been made to examine the concurrent relationship between global warming and economic development focusing on the danger it inheres in developing countries. To achieve this, the paper commenced with the conceptualization of global warming and economic development, the natural and human causes ...

Hot stuff. Global warming as a giant trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brunstad, Bjoern

2007-01-01

The article presents various aspects of global warming with focus on meteorological data, global discharges, estimated surface temperature increments, ocean level elevations and net warming effects of various human activities. The consequences for the economic and social developments are discussed. Some action possibilities are mentioned. (tk)

Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.

Science.gov (United States)

Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B; Fischer, Erich M; Knutti, Reto

2017-05-03

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

Human Health and Toxic Cyanobacteria – What do we know?

Science.gov (United States)

Human Health and Toxic Cyanobacteria – What do we know?Elizabeth D. HilbornWarm, eutrophic surface water systems support the development of toxic cyanobacteria blooms in North Carolina and worldwide. These conditions are increasing with expanding human populations and clima...

Global warming on trial

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broeker, W.S.

1992-01-01

Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing

Priority setting of strategies and mechanisms for limiting global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, S.J.L.

1994-01-01

Scientific communities have reached a consensus that increases of greenhouse gas emission will result in climatic warming and sea level rises despite existing uncertainties. Major uncertainties include the sensitivities of climate changes in terms of timing, magnitude, and scales of regional changes. Socioeconomic uncertainties encompass population and economic growth, changes in technology, future reliance on fossil fuel, and policies compiled to stabilize the global warming. Moreover, increase in world population coupled with limited resources will increase the vulnerability of ecosystems and social systems. Global warming has become an international concern since the destinies of all nations are closely interwoven by this issue and how nations deal with it. Appropriate strategies and mechanisms are need to slow down the buildup of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases. Questionnaires were sent to 150 experts in 30 countries to evaluate such strategies and mechanisms for dealing with global warming, from both the domestic and international perspectives. This paper will focus primarily on strategy selection

The impacts and costs of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyre, N.J.

1991-01-01

There is now a scientific consensus that current rates of accumulation of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere will result in significant global warming and climate change. These changes are likely to have important impacts on a wide range of human activities and the natural environment. There has now been a considerable weight of literature published on the impacts of global warming, much of it very recent. This report seeks to summarise the important results, to analyse the uncertainties and to make a preliminary analysis of the feasibility of monetarising these environmental costs. The impacts of global warming are divided into ten major categories: agriculture, forests and forestry, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, hydrology and water resources, sea level rise and coastal zones, energy, infrastructure/transport/industry, human health and air quality, oceans, and cryospheric impacts. The results of major summary reports are analysed, notably the report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC). (author)

GLOBAL WARMING: IS A NEW THREAT?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ayca Eminoglu

2008-09-30

In the Post Cold War era, the concepts of ''security'', ''national security'', and ''international security'' have changed with regard to their contents and meanings. Such developments made states to renew their national security policies. Security is a special form of politics as well. All security issues are political problems but not all political conflicts are security issues. In the Post Cold War era, differentiating and increasing numbers of elements that constitutes threat changed the concept of threat and widen the capacity of security. In this term, many elements lost its effect of being a threat but also new threatening elements emerged. Environmental problems, human rights, mass migration, micro nationalism, ethnic conflicts, religious fundamentalism, contagious diseases, international terrorism, economic instabilities, drug and weapon smuggling and human trafficking are the new problems emerged in international security agenda. Environmental problems no longer take place in security issues and can be mentioned as a ''low security'' issue. They are threats to the global commons i.e. the oceans, the seas, the ozone layer and the climate system, which are life supports for mankind as a whole. Global warming is one of the most important environmental issues of our day that effects human life in every field and can be defined as a 'serious threat to international security'. Because of global warming, environmental changes will occur and these changes will cause conflicting issues in international relations. Because of global warming dwindling freshwater supplies, food shortages, political instability and other conflicts may take place. Some IR scholars see a need for global cooperation in order to face the threat. At the background of global warming and its effects, states have to get preventive measures and normally, each state form its own measures, therefore as a

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: critical to world oceanography and world climate

Science.gov (United States)

De Deckker, Patrick

2016-12-01

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool holds a unique place on the globe. It is a large area [>30 × 106 km2] that is characterised by permanent surface temperature >28 °C and is therefore called the `heat engine' of the globe. High convective clouds which can reach altitudes up to 15 km generate much latent heat in the process of convection and this area is therefore called the `steam engine' of the world. Seasonal and contrasting monsoonal activity over the region is the cause for a broad seasonal change of surface salinities, and since the area lies along the path of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, it is coined the `dilution' basin due to the high incidence of tropical rain and, away from the equator, tropical cyclones contribute to a significant drop in sea water salinity. Discussion about what may happen in the future of the Warm Pool under global warming is presented together with a description of the Warm Pool during the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum when sea levels had dropped by ~125 m. A call for urgent monitoring of the IPWP area is justified on the grounds of the significance of this area for global oceanographic and climatological processes, but also because of the concerned threats to human population living there.

Seagrass ecophysiological performance under ocean warming and acidification.

Science.gov (United States)

Repolho, Tiago; Duarte, Bernardo; Dionísio, Gisela; Paula, José Ricardo; Lopes, Ana R; Rosa, Inês C; Grilo, Tiago F; Caçador, Isabel; Calado, Ricardo; Rosa, Rui

2017-02-01

Seagrasses play an essential ecological role within coastal habitats and their worldwide population decline has been linked to different types of anthropogenic forces. We investigated, for the first time, the combined effects of future ocean warming and acidification on fundamental biological processes of Zostera noltii, including shoot density, leaf coloration, photophysiology (electron transport rate, ETR; maximum PSII quantum yield, F v /F m ) and photosynthetic pigments. Shoot density was severely affected under warming conditions, with a concomitant increase in the frequency of brownish colored leaves (seagrass die-off). Warming was responsible for a significant decrease in ETR and F v /F m (particularly under control pH conditions), while promoting the highest ETR variability (among experimental treatments). Warming also elicited a significant increase in pheophytin and carotenoid levels, alongside an increase in carotenoid/chlorophyll ratio and De-Epoxidation State (DES). Acidification significantly affected photosynthetic pigments content (antheraxanthin, β-carotene, violaxanthin and zeaxanthin), with a significant decrease being recorded under the warming scenario. No significant interaction between ocean acidification and warming was observed. Our findings suggest that future ocean warming will be a foremost determinant stressor influencing Z. noltii survival and physiological performance. Additionally, acidification conditions to occur in the future will be unable to counteract deleterious effects posed by ocean warming.

Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

Science.gov (United States)

Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B.; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

2017-05-01

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

Ecological stability in response to warming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fussmann, Katarina E.; Schwarzmueller, Florian; Brose, Ulrich; Jousset, Alexandre|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/370632656; Rall, Bjoern C.

That species' biological rates including metabolism, growth and feeding scale with temperature is well established from warming experiments(1). The interactive influence of these changes on population dynamics, however, remains uncertain. As a result, uncertainty about ecological stability in

The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Diaz, James H

2007-01-01

With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

Integrating both interaction pathways between warming and pesticide exposure on upper thermal tolerance in high- and low-latitude populations of an aquatic insect.

Science.gov (United States)

Op de Beeck, Lin; Verheyen, Julie; Stoks, Robby

2017-05-01

Global warming and chemical pollution are key anthropogenic stressors with the potential to interact. While warming can change the impact of pollutants and pollutants can change the sensitivity to warming, both interaction pathways have never been integrated in a single experiment. Therefore, we tested the effects of warming and multiple pesticide pulses (allowing accumulation) of chlorpyrifos on upper thermal tolerance (CTmax) and associated physiological traits related to aerobic/anaerobic energy production in the damselfly Ischnura elegans. To also assess the role of latitude-specific thermal adaptation in shaping the impact of warming and pesticide exposure on thermal tolerance, we exposed larvae from replicated high- and low-latitude populations to the pesticide in a common garden rearing experiment at 20 and 24 °C, the mean summer water temperatures at high and low latitudes. As expected, exposure to chlorpyrifos resulted in a lower CTmax. Yet, this pesticide effect on CTmax was lower at 24 °C compared to 20 °C because of a lower accumulation of chlorpyrifos in the medium at 24 °C. The effects on CTmax could partly be explained by reduction of the aerobic scope. Given that these effects did not differ between latitudes, gradual thermal evolution is not expected to counteract the negative effect of the pesticide on thermal tolerance. By for the first time integrating both interaction pathways we were not only able to provide support for both of them, but more importantly demonstrate that they can directly affect each other. Indeed, the warming-induced reduction in pesticide impact generated a lower pesticide-induced climate change sensitivity (in terms of decreased upper thermal tolerance). Our results indicate that, assuming no increase in pesticide input, global warming might reduce the negative effect of multiple pulse exposures to pesticides on sensitivity to elevated temperatures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global warming and climate change: control methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

2008-01-01

This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

DNA methylation-based variation between human populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kader, Farzeen; Ghai, Meenu

2017-02-01

Several studies have proved that DNA methylation affects regulation of gene expression and development. Epigenome-wide studies have reported variation in methylation patterns between populations, including Caucasians, non-Caucasians (Blacks), Hispanics, Arabs, and numerous populations of the African continent. Not only has DNA methylation differences shown to impact externally visible characteristics, but is also a potential biomarker for underlying racial health disparities between human populations. Ethnicity-related methylation differences set their mark during early embryonic development. Genetic variations, such as single-nucleotide polymorphisms and environmental factors, such as age, dietary folate, socioeconomic status, and smoking, impacts DNA methylation levels, which reciprocally impacts expression of phenotypes. Studies show that it is necessary to address these external influences when attempting to differentiate between populations since the relative impacts of these factors on the human methylome remain uncertain. The present review summarises several reported attempts to establish the contribution of differential DNA methylation to natural human variation, and shows that DNA methylation could represent new opportunities for risk stratification and prevention of several diseases amongst populations world-wide. Variation of methylation patterns between human populations is an exciting prospect which inspires further valuable research to apply the concept in routine medical and forensic casework. However, trans-generational inheritance needs to be quantified to decipher the proportion of variation contributed by DNA methylation. The future holds thorough evaluation of the epigenome to understand quantification, heritability, and the effect of DNA methylation on phenotypes. In addition, methylation profiling of the same ethnic groups across geographical locations will shed light on conserved methylation differences in populations.

The Warm Plasma Composition in the Inner Magnetosphere during 2012-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Jahn, J. M.; Goldstein, J.; Reeves, G. D.; Fernandes, P. A.; Skoug, R. M.; Larsen, B.; Spence, H. E.

2017-12-01

Ionospheric heavy ions play an important role in the dynamics of Earth's magnetosphere. The greater mass and gyro radius of ionospheric oxygen differentiates its behavior from protons at the same energies. Oxygen may have an impact on tail reconnection processes, and it can at least temporarily dominate the energy content of the ring current during geomagnetic storms. At sub-keV energies, multi-species ion populations in the inner magnetosphere form the warm plasma cloak, occupying the energy range between the plasmasphere and the ring current. Lastly, cold lighter ions from the mid-latitude ionosphere create the co-rotating plasmasphere whose outer regions can interact with the plasma cloak, plasma sheet, ring current, and outer electron belt. In this paper we present a statistical view of warm, cloak-like ion populations in the inner magnetosphere, contrasting in particular the warm plasma composition during quiet and active times. We study the relative abundances and absolute densities of warm plasma measured by the Van Allen Probes, whose two spacecraft cover the inner magnetosphere from plasmaspheric altitudes close to Earth to just inside geostationary orbit. We observe that warm (> 30 eV) oxygen is most abundant closer to the plasmasphere boundary whereas warm hydrogen dominates closer to geostationary orbit. Warm helium is usually a minor constituent, but shows a noticeable enhancement in the near-Earth dusk sector.

Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

2014-01-01

Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders.

Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird.

Science.gov (United States)

Tompkins, Emily M; Townsend, Howard M; Anderson, David J

2017-01-01

Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily M Tompkins

Full Text Available Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

An innovative nuclear reactor as a solution to global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Robson Silva da; Sefidvash, Farhang

2007-01-01

The problem of global warming is no longer a philosophical discussion, but it is a fact seriously threatening the future of humanity. In this paper a practical solution to the problem of global warming resulting from the fossil fuelled energy suppliers is presented. The energy conservation and alternative forms of energy such as solar, wind, and bio even though having important roles, do not satisfy the energy demand generated by an increasing world population that desires to increase its standard of living. The fission process in the nuclear reactors does not produce greenhouse gases that cause global warming. The new paradigm in nuclear energy is the future innovative reactors that meet the new standards set by the INPRO Program of the IAEA. One such a reactor is presented in this paper, namely the Fixed Bed Nuclear Reactor (FBNR) that is supported by the International Atomic Energy (IAEA) in its program of Small Reactors Without On-Site Refuelling (SRWOSR), being one of the four water cooled reactors in this program. The other three reactor concepts are PFPWR50 of Japan, BWRPB of Russia and AFPR-100 of USA. It is shown that the nuclear energy of the future is totally different than what is today in respect to safety, economics, environmental impact and proliferation. In this manner, the public perception of nuclear energy will change and its acceptability is promoted. (author)

A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas

Science.gov (United States)

Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

2017-01-01

This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the “well below 2°C” warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work’s primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2. PMID:28628676

A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas.

Science.gov (United States)

de la Fuente, Alberto; Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

2017-01-01

This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the "well below 2°C" warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work's primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.

Camphor induces cold and warm sensations with increases in skin and muscle blood flow in human.

Science.gov (United States)

Kotaka, Tomohiko; Kimura, Shoji; Kashiwayanagi, Makoto; Iwamoto, Jun

2014-01-01

Application of camphor to the skin has been empirically thought to improve blood circulation. However, camphor's effects on blood circulation to the skin and on thermal sensation have not been well elucidated. In this study, we examined its effects on the quality of sensation as well as on skin and muscle blood flow in human. Nine adults (average age 37±9.4 years) participated in the study. Petroleum jelly containing 5%, 10%, 20% camphor, or 2% menthol was separately applied to the skin on the medial side of one forearm of each subject. Just after the application, camphor at each concentration induced a cold sensation in a dose-dependent manner. Within 10 min, each subject reported that the cold sensation had faded, after which it was replaced by a warm sensation. As reported previously, a cold sensation was induced by application of 2% menthol, but the subjects did not adapt to that sensation. In addition, menthol did not induce a warm sensation at all. Application of menthol has been shown to increase blood flow in the skin. Finally, we measured blood flow in skin and muscle after the application of camphor or menthol. Application of camphor or menthol separately induced increases in local blood flow in the skin and muscle. The present results indicate that camphor induces both cold and warm sensations and improves blood circulation.

Innovation and the growth of human population.

Science.gov (United States)

Weinberger, V P; Quiñinao, C; Marquet, P A

2017-12-05

Biodiversity is sustained by and is essential to the services that ecosystems provide. Different species would use these services in different ways, or adaptive strategies, which are sustained in time by continuous innovations. Using this framework, we postulate a model for a biological species ( Homo sapiens ) in a finite world where innovations, aimed at increasing the flux of ecosystem services (a measure of habitat quality), increase with population size, and have positive effects on the generation of new innovations (positive feedback) as well as costs in terms of negatively affecting the provision of ecosystem services. We applied this model to human populations, where technological innovations are driven by cumulative cultural evolution. Our model shows that depending on the net impact of a technology on the provision of ecosystem services ( θ ), and the strength of technological feedback ( ξ ), different regimes can result. Among them, the human population can fill the entire planet while maximizing their well-being, but not exhaust ecosystem services. However, this outcome requires positive or green technologies that increase the provision of ecosystem services with few negative externalities or environmental costs, and that have a strong positive feedback in generating new technologies of the same kind. If the feedback is small, then the technological stock can collapse together with the human population. Scenarios where technological innovations generate net negative impacts may be associated with a limited technological stock as well as a limited human population at equilibrium and the potential for collapse. The only way to fill the planet with humans under this scenario of negative technologies is by reducing the technological stock to a minimum. Otherwise, the only feasible equilibrium is associated with population collapse. Our model points out that technological innovations per se may not help humans to grow and dominate the planet. Instead

Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilczek, Amity M; Cooper, Martha D; Korves, Tonia M; Schmitt, Johanna

2014-06-03

If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species' native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species' native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation.

Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

Science.gov (United States)

Aubrecht, Gordon

2009-04-01

Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

2018-02-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage

Science.gov (United States)

Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

2014-01-01

Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:25671171

Comparison of body conformation of Moravian warm-blooded horse and Sarvar horse

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jana Šamková

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Measurements of 7 body measures and 6 indices of body conformation on 34 breeding individuals of Moravian warm-blooded horse and 19 of Sarvar horse (Leutstettener were used to analyse the effect of country of origin (Czech Republik, Germany, sire lines or breed (Furioso, Przedswit, English thoroughbred, Sarvar, Others and age (4 classes. All horses were measured by one person. Measures and indexes were analysed by GLM procedure. Significant differences were found between both Czech and German population only in index of body frame. Sarvar horses are longer to their height than Moravian warm-blooded horses. The shorter body frame have the horses by English thoroughbred, the longer by Furioso. The younger horses are higher than the older. According to results of Linear Description of Body Conformation we found out, that population of Sarvar horse is more balanced than population of Moravian warm-blooded horse.

Human Capital, Population Growth and Economic Development: Beyond Correlations

OpenAIRE

Rosenzweig, Mark R.

1987-01-01

Empirical evidence on three assertions commonly-made by population policy advocates about the relationships among population growth, human capital formation and economic development is discussed and evaluated in the light of economic-biological models of household behavior and of its relevance to population policy. The three assertions are that (a) population growth and human capital investments jointly reflect and respond to changes in the economic environment, (b) larger families directly i...

Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, Charles F

2007-03-09

In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03), research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed, and I hope that, by treating just the most significant aspects of the research, this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular, while most of CFK03 remains current, there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem, but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved, and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1,000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that, while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations, it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter

Human heredity after 1945: moving populations centre stage.

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Bangham, Jenny; de Chadarevian, Soraya

2014-09-01

The essays in this issue look at the contested history of human heredity after 1945 from a new analytical angle, that of populations and the ways in which they were constructed and studied. One consequence of this approach is that we do not limit our attention to the disciplinary study of genetics. After the Second World War, populations became a central topic for an array of fields, including demography, anthropology, epidemiology, and public health. Human heredity had a role in all of these: demographers carried out mental surveys in efforts to distinguish hereditary from environmental factors, doctors screened newborns and tested pregnant women for chromosome disorders; anthropologists collected blood from remote locations to gain insights into the evolutionary history of human populations; geneticists monitored people exposed to radiation. Through this work, populations were labelled as clinical, normal, primitive, pure, vulnerable or exotic. We ask: how were populations chosen, who qualified as members, and how was the study of human heredity shaped by technical, institutional and geopolitical conditions? By following the practical and conceptual work to define populations as objects of research, the essays trace the circulation of practices across different fields and contexts, bringing into view new actors, institutions, and geographies. By doing so the collection shows how human heredity research was linked to the broader politics of the postwar world, one profoundly conditioned by Cold War tensions, by nationalist concerns, by colonial and post-colonial struggles, by modernisation projects and by a new internationalism. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

Science.gov (United States)

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

2018-01-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots.

Science.gov (United States)

Jha, S; Bawa, K S

2006-06-01

Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources.

Chromosome surveys of human populations: between epidemiology and anthropology.

Science.gov (United States)

de Chadarevian, Soraya

2014-09-01

It is commonly held that after 1945 human genetics turned medical and focussed on the individual rather than on the study of human populations that had become discredited. However, a closer look at the research practices at the time quickly reveals that human population studies, using old and new tools, prospered in this period. The essay focuses on the rise of chromosome analysis as a new tool for the study of human populations. It reviews a broad array of population studies ranging from newborn screening programmes to studies of isolated or 'primitive' people. Throughout, it highlights the continuing role of concerns and opportunities raised by the propagation of atomic energy for civilian and military uses, the collection of large data bases and computers, and the role of international organisations like the World Health Organisation and the International Biological Programme in shaping research agendas and carving out a space for human heredity in the postwar era. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A matter of degrees: A primer on global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

A primer on global warming is presented in order to provide information to Canadians on making environmentally responsible decisions. The fundamentals of natural climate change, the atmospheric environment, factors that influence climate, and the greenhouse effect are explained. Global warming is then discussed with reference to paleoclimatic research, the influence of human activity on increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and predictions of future climates. The possible impacts of global warming on Canada are described for such sectors as forests, fisheries, agriculture, sea levels, health, energy supply and demand, and the Arctic regions. The actions that citizens and governments can take in order to mitigate or adapt to global warming are then presented. A glossary and index are included. 55 refs., 17 figs

Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass.

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Jueterbock, A; Franssen, S U; Bergmann, N; Gu, J; Coyer, J A; Reusch, T B H; Bornberg-Bauer, E; Olsen, J L

2016-11-01

Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina, the most widely distributed seagrass in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. A North-South pair of populations was sampled along the European and North American coasts and exposed to a simulated heatwave in a common-garden mesocosm. Transcriptomic responses under control, heat stress and recovery were recorded in 99 RNAseq libraries with ~13 000 uniquely annotated, expressed genes. We corrected for phylogenetic differentiation among populations to discriminate neutral from adaptive differentiation. The two southern populations recovered faster from heat stress and showed parallel transcriptomic differentiation, as compared with northern populations. Among 2389 differentially expressed genes, 21 exceeded neutral expectations and were likely involved in parallel adaptation to warm temperatures. However, the strongest differentiation following phylogenetic correction was between the three Atlantic populations and the Mediterranean population with 128 of 4711 differentially expressed genes exceeding neutral expectations. Although adaptation to warm temperatures is expected to reduce sensitivity to heatwaves, the continued resistance of seagrass to further anthropogenic stresses may be impaired by heat-induced downregulation of genes related to photosynthesis, pathogen defence and stress tolerance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The challenges of human population ageing

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, Miriam; Oxlund, Bjarke; Jespersen, Astrid; Krasnik, Allan; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Westendorp, Rudi Gerardus Johannes; Rasmussen, Lene Juel

2015-01-01

The 20th century saw an unprecedented increase in average human lifespan as well as a rapid decline in human fertility in many countries of the world. The accompanying worldwide change in demographics of human populations is linked to unanticipated and unprecedented economic, cultural, medical, social, public health and public policy challenges, whose full implications on a societal level are only just beginning to be fully appreciated. Some of these implications are discussed in this commentary, an outcome of Cultures of Health and Ageing, a conference co-sponsored by the University of Copenhagen (UCPH) and the Center for Healthy Ageing at UCPH, which took place on 20–21 June 2014 in Copenhagen, Denmark. Questions discussed here include the following: what is driving age-structural change in human populations? how can we create ‘age-friendly’ societies and promote ‘ageing-in-community’? what tools will effectively promote social engagement and prevent social detachment among older individuals? is there a risk that further extension of human lifespan would be a greater burden to the individual and to society than is warranted by the potential benefit of longer life? PMID:25452294

Transcriptome sequencing from diverse human populations reveals differentiated regulatory architecture.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alicia R Martin

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Large-scale sequencing efforts have documented extensive genetic variation within the human genome. However, our understanding of the origins, global distribution, and functional consequences of this variation is far from complete. While regulatory variation influencing gene expression has been studied within a handful of populations, the breadth of transcriptome differences across diverse human populations has not been systematically analyzed. To better understand the spectrum of gene expression variation, alternative splicing, and the population genetics of regulatory variation in humans, we have sequenced the genomes, exomes, and transcriptomes of EBV transformed lymphoblastoid cell lines derived from 45 individuals in the Human Genome Diversity Panel (HGDP. The populations sampled span the geographic breadth of human migration history and include Namibian San, Mbuti Pygmies of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Algerian Mozabites, Pathan of Pakistan, Cambodians of East Asia, Yakut of Siberia, and Mayans of Mexico. We discover that approximately 25.0% of the variation in gene expression found amongst individuals can be attributed to population differences. However, we find few genes that are systematically differentially expressed among populations. Of this population-specific variation, 75.5% is due to expression rather than splicing variability, and we find few genes with strong evidence for differential splicing across populations. Allelic expression analyses indicate that previously mapped common regulatory variants identified in eight populations from the International Haplotype Map Phase 3 project have similar effects in our seven sampled HGDP populations, suggesting that the cellular effects of common variants are shared across diverse populations. Together, these results provide a resource for studies analyzing functional differences across populations by estimating the degree of shared gene expression, alternative splicing, and

Greenhouse gases and global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

From previous articles we have learned about the complexities of our environment, its atmosphere and its climate system. we have also learned that climate change and, therefore global warm and cool periods are naturally occurring phenomena. Moreover, all scientific evidence suggests that global warming, are likely to occur again naturally in the future. However, we have not yet considered the role of the rates of climate change in affecting the biosphere. It appears that how quickly the climate changes may be more important than the change itself. In light of this concern, let us now consider the possibility that, is due to human activity. We may over the next century experience global warming at rates and magnitudes unparalleled in recent geologic history. The following questions are answered; What can we learn from past climates? What do we know about global climates over the past 100 years? What causes temperature change? What are the greenhouse gases? How much have concentration of greenhouse gases increased in recent years? Why are increases in concentrations of greenhouse of concern? What is the e nhanced greenhouse effect ? How can human activity impact the global climate? What are some reasons for increased concentrations of greenhouse gases? What are fossil fuel and how do they transform into greenhouse gases? Who are the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases? Why are canada per capita emissions of greenhouse gases relatively high? (Author)

Integration of effects on human populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harwell, M.A.; Harwell, C.C.

1985-01-01

It seems possible that several hundred millions of humans could die from the direct effects of nuclear war. The indirect effects could result in the loss of one to several billions of humans. How close the latter projection would come to loss of all humans is problematical, but the current best estimation is that this result would not follow from the physical and societal perturbations currently projected to occur after a large-scale nuclear war. One important issue of scale to keep in mind is the difference between estimating that on a global scale the bases for human support would be undetermined for a particular fraction of the population (e.g., estimating insufficient food to support more than a certain fraction of the current population), and predicting the survival strategies of small groups of people. Projections of global-scale population losses do not mean that even in those areas in which humans would be expected to die, all would suffer the same fate. No analysis have been attempted here concerning the capability of selected humans on a relatively small scale (e.g., individual, family, community level) to find a successful strategy for survival. That a person or group in a combatant country might find a way to escape the effects of radiation, societal disruptions, climatic alterations, and the host of other potential disruptions, and still continue to survive seems possible, even in devastated areas. That billions of people could do so in the absence of a sufficient food support base is impossible. Thus, one needs to distinguish carefully between possible survival strategies on a small scale, and the physical limitations of support for massive numbers of people on a large scale

Genetic evidence for a Paleolithic human population expansion in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Reich, David E.; Goldstein, David B.

1998-01-01

Human populations have undergone dramatic expansions in size, but other than the growth associated with agriculture, the dates and magnitudes of those expansions have never been resolved. Here, we introduce two new statistical tests for population expansion, which use variation at a number of unlinked genetic markers to study the demographic histories of natural populations. By analyzing genetic variation in various aboriginal populations from throughout the world, we show highly significant evidence for a major human population expansion in Africa, but no evidence of expansion outside of Africa. The inferred African expansion is estimated to have occurred between 49,000 and 640,000 years ago, certainly before the Neolithic expansions, and probably before the splitting of African and non-African populations. In showing a significant difference between African and non-African populations, our analysis supports the unique role of Africa in human evolutionary history, as has been suggested by most other genetic work. In addition, the missing signal in non-African populations may be the result of a population bottleneck associated with the emergence of these populations from Africa, as postulated in the “Out of Africa” model of modern human origins. PMID:9653150

PGG.Population: a database for understanding the genomic diversity and genetic ancestry of human populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Chao; Gao, Yang; Liu, Jiaojiao; Xue, Zhe; Lu, Yan; Deng, Lian; Tian, Lei; Feng, Qidi; Xu, Shuhua

2018-01-04

There are a growing number of studies focusing on delineating genetic variations that are associated with complex human traits and diseases due to recent advances in next-generation sequencing technologies. However, identifying and prioritizing disease-associated causal variants relies on understanding the distribution of genetic variations within and among populations. The PGG.Population database documents 7122 genomes representing 356 global populations from 107 countries and provides essential information for researchers to understand human genomic diversity and genetic ancestry. These data and information can facilitate the design of research studies and the interpretation of results of both evolutionary and medical studies involving human populations. The database is carefully maintained and constantly updated when new data are available. We included miscellaneous functions and a user-friendly graphical interface for visualization of genomic diversity, population relationships (genetic affinity), ancestral makeup, footprints of natural selection, and population history etc. Moreover, PGG.Population provides a useful feature for users to analyze data and visualize results in a dynamic style via online illustration. The long-term ambition of the PGG.Population, together with the joint efforts from other researchers who contribute their data to our database, is to create a comprehensive depository of geographic and ethnic variation of human genome, as well as a platform bringing influence on future practitioners of medicine and clinical investigators. PGG.Population is available at https://www.pggpopulation.org. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Climate change - global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciconkov, Risto

2001-01-01

An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

Global warming: Economic policy responses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dornbusch, R.; Poterba, J.M.

1991-01-01

This volume contains the proceedings of a conference that brought together economic experts from Europe, the US, Latin America, and Japan to evaluate key issues in the policy debate in global warming. The following issues are at the center of debates on alternative policies to address global warming: scientific evidence on the magnitude of global warming and the extent to which it is due to human activities; availability of economic tools to control the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and how vigorously should they be applied; and political economy considerations which influence the design of an international program for controlling greenhouse gases. Many perspectives are offered on the approaches to remedying environmental problems that are currently being pursued in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Deforestation in the Amazon is discussed, as well as ways to slow it. Public finance assessments are presented of both the domestic and international policy issues raised by plans to levy a tax on the carbon emissions from various fossil fuels. Nine chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

Perspectives on Population in AP® Human Geography

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Max; Keller, Kenneth

2016-01-01

A study of human geography begins with the human population. In fact, demographic topics frequently relate to other units in the AP Human Geography course. The three main concepts elaborated upon in this article are (1) the demographic transition model, (2) Malthusian theory and its critics, and (3) pronatalist and antinatalist policies that might…

Response of a Habitat-Forming Marine Plant to a Simulated Warming Event Is Delayed, Genotype Specific, and Varies with Phenology.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura K Reynolds

Full Text Available Growing evidence shows that increasing global temperature causes population declines and latitudinal shifts in geographical distribution for plants living near their thermal limits. Yet, even populations living well within established thermal limits of a species may suffer as the frequency and intensity of warming events increase with climate change. Adaptive response to this stress at the population level depends on the presence of genetic variation in thermal tolerance in the populations in question, yet few data exist to evaluate this. In this study, we examined the immediate effects of a moderate warming event of 4.5°C lasting 5 weeks and the legacy effects after a 5 week recovery on different genotypes of the marine plant Zostera marina (eelgrass. We conducted the experiment in Bodega Bay, CA USA, where average summer water temperatures are 14-15°C, but extended warming periods of 17-18°C occur episodically. Experimental warming increased shoot production by 14% compared to controls held at ambient temperature. However, after returning temperature to ambient levels, we found strongly negative, delayed effects of warming on production: shoot production declined by 27% and total biomass decreased by 50% relative to individuals that had not been warmed. While all genotypes' production decreased in the recovery phase, genotypes that grew the most rapidly under benign thermal conditions (control were the most susceptible to the detrimental effects of warming. This suggests a potential tradeoff in relative performance at normal vs. elevated temperatures. Modest short-term increases in water temperature have potentially prolonged negative effects within the species' thermal envelope, but genetic variation within these populations may allow for population persistence and adaptation. Further, intraspecific variation in phenology can result in maintenance of population diversity and lead to enhanced production in diverse stands given sufficient

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

2018-02-01

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of

Is Global Warming Likely to Cause an Increased Incidence of Malaria?

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by ...

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

2017-07-01

Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

OpenAIRE

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatmen...

Effects of in situ climate warming on monarch caterpillar (Danaus plexippus development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathan P. Lemoine

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Climate warming will fundamentally alter basic life history strategies of many ectothermic insects. In the lab, rising temperatures increase growth rates of lepidopteran larvae but also reduce final pupal mass and increase mortality. Using in situ field warming experiments on their natural host plants, we assessed the impact of climate warming on development of monarch (Danaus plexippus larvae. Monarchs were reared on Asclepias tuberosa grown under ‘Ambient’ and ‘Warmed’ conditions. We quantified time to pupation, final pupal mass, and survivorship. Warming significantly decreased time to pupation, such that an increase of 1 °C corresponded to a 0.5 day decrease in pupation time. In contrast, survivorship and pupal mass were not affected by warming. Our results indicate that climate warming will speed the developmental rate of monarchs, influencing their ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, the effects of climate warming on larval development in other monarch populations and at different times of year should be investigated.

The effect of global warming on infectious diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurane, Ichiro

2010-12-01

Global warming has various effects on human health. The main indirect effects are on infectious diseases. Although the effects on infectious diseases will be detected worldwide, the degree and types of the effect are different, depending on the location of the respective countries and socioeconomical situations. Among infectious diseases, water- and foodborne infectious diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases are two main categories that are forecasted to be most affected. The effect on vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever is mainly because of the expansion of the infested areas of vector mosquitoes and increase in the number and feeding activity of infected mosquitoes. There will be increase in the number of cases with water- and foodborne diarrhoeal diseases. Even with the strongest mitigation procedures, global warming cannot be avoided for decades. Therefore, implementation of adaptation measures to the effect of global warming is the most practical action we can take. It is generally accepted that the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases have not been apparent at this point yet in East Asia. However, these impacts will appear in one form or another if global warming continues to progress in future. Further research on the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases and on future prospects should be conducted.

Clinical outcome of fresh and vitrified-warmed blastocyst and cleavage-stage embryo transfers in ethnic Chinese ART patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tong Guo

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Objectives This study sought to evaluate the outcome of fresh and vitrified-warmed cleavage-stage and blastocyst-stage embryo transfers in patients undergoing ART treatment within an ethnic Chinese population. Study design We compared the clinical results of embryo transfer on the 3rd (cleavage stage or 5th (blastocyst stage day after oocyte retrieval, including clinical pregnancy rates, implantation rates and multiple pregnancy rates. Results Our data showed that blastocyst transfer on day 5 did not significantly increase clinical pregnancy rate (41.07% vs 47.08%, p>0.05 and implantation rate (31.8% vs 31.2%, p>0.05 in patients under 35 years of age, in comparison with day 3 cleavage stage embryo transfer. In patients older than 35 years of age, the clinical pregnancy rate after blastocyst transfer was slightly decreased compared with cleavage stage embryo transfer (33.33% vs 42.31%, p>0.05. Unexpectedly, It was found that vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer resulted in significantly higher clinical pregnancy rate (56.8% and implantation rate (47% compared with fresh blastocyst transfer in controlled stimulation cycles (41.07% and 31.8%, respectively. For patients under 35 years of age, the cumulative clinical pregnancy rate combining fresh and vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer cycles were significantly higher compared to just cleavage-stage embryo transfer (70.1% versus 51.8%, p Conclusions In an ethnic Chinese patient population, fresh blastocyst transfer does not significantly increase clinical pregnancy rate. However, subsequent vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer in a non-controlled ovarian hyperstimulation cycle dramatically improves clinical outcomes. Therefore, blastocyst culture in tandem with vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer is recommended as a favourable and promising protocol in human ART treatment, particularly for ethnic Chinese patients.

Clinical outcome of fresh and vitrified-warmed blastocyst and cleavage-stage embryo transfers in ethnic Chinese ART patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Guo Qing; Cao, Shan Ren; Wu, Xun; Zhang, Jun Qiang; Cui, Ji; Heng, Boon Chin; Ling, Xiu Feng

2012-10-05

This study sought to evaluate the outcome of fresh and vitrified-warmed cleavage-stage and blastocyst-stage embryo transfers in patients undergoing ART treatment within an ethnic Chinese population. We compared the clinical results of embryo transfer on the 3rd (cleavage stage) or 5th (blastocyst stage) day after oocyte retrieval, including clinical pregnancy rates, implantation rates and multiple pregnancy rates. Our data showed that blastocyst transfer on day 5 did not significantly increase clinical pregnancy rate (41.07% vs 47.08%, p>0.05) and implantation rate (31.8% vs 31.2%, p>0.05) in patients under 35 years of age, in comparison with day 3 cleavage stage embryo transfer. In patients older than 35 years of age, the clinical pregnancy rate after blastocyst transfer was slightly decreased compared with cleavage stage embryo transfer (33.33% vs 42.31%, p>0.05). Unexpectedly, It was found that vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer resulted in significantly higher clinical pregnancy rate (56.8%) and implantation rate (47%) compared with fresh blastocyst transfer in controlled stimulation cycles (41.07% and 31.8%, respectively). For patients under 35 years of age, the cumulative clinical pregnancy rate combining fresh and vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer cycles were significantly higher compared to just cleavage-stage embryo transfer (70.1% versus 51.8%, p<0.05). However, the cumulative multiple pregnancy rates showed no significant difference between the two groups. In an ethnic Chinese patient population, fresh blastocyst transfer does not significantly increase clinical pregnancy rate. However, subsequent vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer in a non-controlled ovarian hyperstimulation cycle dramatically improves clinical outcomes. Therefore, blastocyst culture in tandem with vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer is recommended as a favourable and promising protocol in human ART treatment, particularly for ethnic Chinese patients.

Natural selection and infectious disease in human populations

Science.gov (United States)

Karlsson, Elinor K.; Kwiatkowski, Dominic P.; Sabeti, Pardis C.

2015-01-01

The ancient biological 'arms race' between microbial pathogens and humans has shaped genetic variation in modern populations, and this has important implications for the growing field of medical genomics. As humans migrated throughout the world, populations encountered distinct pathogens, and natural selection increased the prevalence of alleles that are advantageous in the new ecosystems in both host and pathogens. This ancient history now influences human infectious disease susceptibility and microbiome homeostasis, and contributes to common diseases that show geographical disparities, such as autoimmune and metabolic disorders. Using new high-throughput technologies, analytical methods and expanding public data resources, the investigation of natural selection is leading to new insights into the function and dysfunction of human biology. PMID:24776769

Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Xiao

2018-04-01

In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.

Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James E

1999-01-01

The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

Genome-wide and paternal diversity reveal a recent origin of human populations in North Africa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karima Fadhlaoui-Zid

Full Text Available The geostrategic location of North Africa as a crossroad between three continents and as a stepping-stone outside Africa has evoked anthropological and genetic interest in this region. Numerous studies have described the genetic landscape of the human population in North Africa employing paternal, maternal, and biparental molecular markers. However, information from these markers which have different inheritance patterns has been mostly assessed independently, resulting in an incomplete description of the region. In this study, we analyze uniparental and genome-wide markers examining similarities or contrasts in the results and consequently provide a comprehensive description of the evolutionary history of North Africa populations. Our results show that both males and females in North Africa underwent a similar admixture history with slight differences in the proportions of admixture components. Consequently, genome-wide diversity show similar patterns with admixture tests suggesting North Africans are a mixture of ancestral populations related to current Africans and Eurasians with more affinity towards the out-of-Africa populations than to sub-Saharan Africans. We estimate from the paternal lineages that most North Africans emerged ∼15,000 years ago during the last glacial warming and that population splits started after the desiccation of the Sahara. Although most North Africans share a common admixture history, the Tunisian Berbers show long periods of genetic isolation and appear to have diverged from surrounding populations without subsequent mixture. On the other hand, continuous gene flow from the Middle East made Egyptians genetically closer to Eurasians than to other North Africans. We show that genetic diversity of today's North Africans mostly captures patterns from migrations post Last Glacial Maximum and therefore may be insufficient to inform on the initial population of the region during the Middle Paleolithic period.

Genome-wide and paternal diversity reveal a recent origin of human populations in North Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Fadhlaoui-Zid, Karima; Haber, Marc; Martínez-Cruz, Begoña; Zalloua, Pierre; Benammar Elgaaied, Amel; Comas, David

2013-01-01

The geostrategic location of North Africa as a crossroad between three continents and as a stepping-stone outside Africa has evoked anthropological and genetic interest in this region. Numerous studies have described the genetic landscape of the human population in North Africa employing paternal, maternal, and biparental molecular markers. However, information from these markers which have different inheritance patterns has been mostly assessed independently, resulting in an incomplete description of the region. In this study, we analyze uniparental and genome-wide markers examining similarities or contrasts in the results and consequently provide a comprehensive description of the evolutionary history of North Africa populations. Our results show that both males and females in North Africa underwent a similar admixture history with slight differences in the proportions of admixture components. Consequently, genome-wide diversity show similar patterns with admixture tests suggesting North Africans are a mixture of ancestral populations related to current Africans and Eurasians with more affinity towards the out-of-Africa populations than to sub-Saharan Africans. We estimate from the paternal lineages that most North Africans emerged ∼15,000 years ago during the last glacial warming and that population splits started after the desiccation of the Sahara. Although most North Africans share a common admixture history, the Tunisian Berbers show long periods of genetic isolation and appear to have diverged from surrounding populations without subsequent mixture. On the other hand, continuous gene flow from the Middle East made Egyptians genetically closer to Eurasians than to other North Africans. We show that genetic diversity of today's North Africans mostly captures patterns from migrations post Last Glacial Maximum and therefore may be insufficient to inform on the initial population of the region during the Middle Paleolithic period.

Mediterranean climate change and Indian Ocean warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Hurrel, J.

2006-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) responses to 20. century changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases are diagnosed, with emphasis on their relationship to observed regional climate change over the Mediterranean region. A major question is whether the Mediterranean region's drying trend since 1950 can be understood as a consequence of the warming trend in tropical SSTs. We focus on the impact of Indian Ocean warming, which is itself the likely result of increasing greenhouse gases. It is discovered that a strong projection onto the positive polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index characterizes the atmospheric response structure to the 1950-1999 warming of Indian Ocean SSTs. This influence appears to be robust in so far as it is reproduced in ensembles of experiments using three different GCMs. Both the equilibrium and transient responses to Indian Ocean warming are examined. Under each scenario, the latitude of prevailing mid latitude westerlies shifts poleward during the November-April period. The consequence is a drying of the Mediterranean region, whereas northern Europe and Scandinavia receive increased precipitation in concert with the poleward shift of storminess. The IPCC (TAR) 20. century coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations forced by observed greenhouse gas changes also yield a post-1950 drying trend over the Mediterranean. We argue that this feature of human-induced regional climate change is the outcome of a dynamical feedback, one involving Indian Ocean warming and a requisite adjustment of atmospheric circulation systems to such ocean warming

mtDNA variation predicts population size in humans and reveals a major Southern Asian chapter in human prehistory.

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, Quentin D; Gray, Russell D; Drummond, Alexei J

2008-02-01

The relative timing and size of regional human population growth following our expansion from Africa remain unknown. Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity carries a legacy of our population history. Given a set of sequences, we can use coalescent theory to estimate past population size through time and draw inferences about human population history. However, recent work has challenged the validity of using mtDNA diversity to infer species population sizes. Here we use Bayesian coalescent inference methods, together with a global data set of 357 human mtDNA coding-region sequences, to infer human population sizes through time across 8 major geographic regions. Our estimates of relative population sizes show remarkable concordance with the contemporary regional distribution of humans across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas, indicating that mtDNA diversity is a good predictor of population size in humans. Plots of population size through time show slow growth in sub-Saharan Africa beginning 143-193 kya, followed by a rapid expansion into Eurasia after the emergence of the first non-African mtDNA lineages 50-70 kya. Outside Africa, the earliest and fastest growth is inferred in Southern Asia approximately 52 kya, followed by a succession of growth phases in Northern and Central Asia (approximately 49 kya), Australia (approximately 48 kya), Europe (approximately 42 kya), the Middle East and North Africa (approximately 40 kya), New Guinea (approximately 39 kya), the Americas (approximately 18 kya), and a second expansion in Europe (approximately 10-15 kya). Comparisons of relative regional population sizes through time suggest that between approximately 45 and 20 kya most of humanity lived in Southern Asia. These findings not only support the use of mtDNA data for estimating human population size but also provide a unique picture of human prehistory and demonstrate the importance of Southern Asia to our recent evolutionary past.

Study of human genetic diversity : inferences on population origin and history

OpenAIRE

Haber, Marc, 1980-

2013-01-01

Patterns of human genetic diversity suggest that all modern humans originated from a small population in Africa that expanded rapidly 50,000 years ago to occupy the whole world. While moving into new environments, genetic drift and natural selection affected populations differently, creating genetic structure. By understanding the genetic structure of human populations, we can reconstruct human history and understand the genetic basis of diseases. The work presented here contributes to the on...

Physical Characterization of Warm Spitzer Observed Near-Earth Objects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thomas, C. A.; Emery, J. P.; Trilling, D. E.; Delbo, M.; Hora, J. L.; Mueller, M.

2012-01-01

We have undertaken a spectroscopic observing campaign to complement the ExploreNEOs Warm Spitzer program. The combination of Spitzer derived albedos and diameters with spectroscopic data will enhance our understanding of the NEO population.

Human population, grasshopper and plant species richness in European countries

Science.gov (United States)

Steck, Claude E.; Pautasso, Marco

2008-11-01

Surprisingly, several studies over large scales have reported a positive spatial correlation of people and biodiversity. This pattern has important implications for conservation and has been documented for well studied taxa such as plants, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. However, it is unknown whether the pattern applies also to invertebrates other than butterflies and more work is needed to establish whether the species-people relationship is explained by both variables correlating with other environmental factors. We studied whether grasshopper species richness (Orthoptera, suborder Caelifera) is related to human population size in European countries. As expected, the number of Caelifera species increases significantly with increasing human population size. But this is not the case when controlling for country area, latitude and number of plant species. Variations in Caelifera species richness are primarily associated with variations in plant species richness. Caelifera species richness also increases with decreasing mean annual precipitation, Gross Domestic Product per capita (used as an indicator for economic development) and net fertility rate of the human population. Our analysis confirms the hypothesis that the broad-scale human population-biodiversity correlations can be explained by concurrent variations in factors other than human population size such as plant species richness, environmental productivity, or habitat heterogeneity. Nonetheless, more populated countries in Europe still have more Caelifera species than less populated countries and this poses a particular challenge for conservation.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Can human populations be stabilized?

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, Stephen G.

2015-02-01

Historical examples of demographic change, in China, Italy, Nigeria, Utah, Easter Island, and elsewhere, together with simple mathematics and biological principles, show that stabilizing world population before it is limited by food supply will be more difficult than is generally appreciated. United Nations population projections are wrong because they assume, in spite of the absence of necessary feedbacks, that all nations will converge rapidly to replacement-level fertility and thereafter remain at that level. Education of women and provision of contraceptives have caused dramatic reductions in fertility, but many groups, including some that are well-educated, maintain high fertility. Small groups with persistent high fertility can grow to supplant low-fertility groups, resulting in continued growth of the total population. The global average fertility rate could rise even if each country's fertility rate is falling. In some low-fertility European countries where deaths exceed births, the population continues to grow because of immigration. Producing more than two offspring is normal for all animal species with stable populations because their populations are limited by resources or predation rather than birth control. It may therefore be appropriate to view the growth of human population as the result not of excess fertility but rather of excess food.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

Is man responsible for global warming?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Legendre, A.

2009-01-01

According to politicians, ecologists and mass media, it is now certain that with our CO 2 emissions, we are all responsible for a major global warming to come with dramatic consequences. But, is this affirmation indisputable? Are we all responsible for the rise of sea level and the summer thawing of the arctic ice shelf? Is this expected global warming without precedent? And is CO 2 , necessary for life, the cause of our misfortune? The answers commonly claimed are maybe more complex in reality and the climate question more subtle than it looks like. This book tries to decode the wheels of the climate machine and the share of human responsibility in climate change. (J.S.)

Earth as Humans’ Habitat: Global Climate Change and the Health of Populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anthony J McMichael

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Human-induced climate change, with such rapid and continuing global-scale warming, is historically unprecedented and signifies that human pressures on Earth’s life-supporting natural systems now exceed the planet’s bio-geo-capacity. The risks from climate change to health and survival in populations are diverse, as are the social and political ramifications. Although attributing observed health changes in a population to the recent climatic change is difficult, a coherent pattern of climate- and weather-associated changes is now evident in many regions of the world. The risks impinge unevenly, especially on poorer and vulnerable regions, and are amplified by pre-existing high rates of climate-sensitive diseases and conditions. If, as now appears likely, the world warms by 3-5oC by 2100, the health consequences, directly and via massive social and economic disruption, will be severe. The health sector has an important message to convey, comparing the health risks and benefits of enlightened action to avert climate change and to achieve sustainable ways of living versus the self-interested or complacent inaction.

Earth as humans’ habitat: global climate change and the health of populations

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, Anthony J

2014-01-01

Human-induced climate change, with such rapid and continuing global-scale warming, is historically unprecedented and signifies that human pressures on Earth’s life-supporting natural systems now exceed the planet’s bio-geo-capacity. The risks from climate change to health and survival in populations are diverse, as are the social and political ramifications. Although attributing observed health changes in a population to the recent climatic change is difficult, a coherent pattern of climate- and weather-associated changes is now evident in many regions of the world. The risks impinge unevenly, especially on poorer and vulnerable regions, and are amplified by pre-existing high rates of climate-sensitive diseases and conditions. If, as now appears likely, the world warms by 3-5oC by 2100, the health consequences, directly and via massive social and economic disruption, will be severe. The health sector has an important message to convey, comparing the health risks and benefits of enlightened action to avert climate change and to achieve sustainable ways of living versus the self-interested or complacent inaction. PMID:24596901

Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada).

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

2015-02-01

Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds ("WAP 12", "WAP 20", and "WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of (210)Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring.

Can biomass responses to warming at plant to ecosystem levels be predicted by leaf-level responses?

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, J.; Shao, J.; Zhou, X.; Yan, W.; Lu, M.

2015-12-01

Global warming has the profound impacts on terrestrial C processes from leaf to ecosystem scales, potentially feeding back to climate dynamics. Although numerous studies had investigated the effects of warming on C processes from leaf to plant and ecosystem levels, how leaf-level responses to warming scale up to biomass responses at plant, population, and community levels are largely unknown. In this study, we compiled a dataset from 468 papers at 300 experimental sites and synthesized the warming effects on leaf-level parameters, and plant, population and ecosystem biomass. Our results showed that responses of plant biomass to warming mainly resulted from the changed leaf area rather than the altered photosynthetic capacity. The response of ecosystem biomass to warming was weaker than those of leaf area and plant biomass. However, the scaling functions from responses of leaf area to plant biomass to warming were different in diverse forest types, but functions were similar in non-forested biomes. In addition, it is challenging to scale the biomass responses from plant up to ecosystem. These results indicated that leaf area might be the appropriate index for plant biomass response to warming, and the interspecific competition might hamper the scaling of the warming effects on plant and ecosystem levels, suggesting that the acclimation capacity of plant community should be incorporated into land surface models to improve the prediction of climate-C cycle feedback.

Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mayank N Vahia

Full Text Available Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction.We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era.We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

Science.gov (United States)

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Can Global Warming Heat Up Environmental Education?

Science.gov (United States)

Mazzatenta, Claudio

2008-01-01

Bronx Community College (CUNY) launched "Global Warming Campus Awareness and Action Days" in celebration of Earth Day, 2007. The purpose of this program was to raise awareness of environmental issues in the college population, especially students. To let more students have a grasp of what Environmental Education (EE) is all about, the author…

Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

2017-06-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

Population and prehistory II: space-limited human populations in constant environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2008-09-01

We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single non-trivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact.

Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jueterbock, Alexander; Franssen, S. U.; Bergmann, N.; Gu, J.; Coyer, J. A.; Reusch, T. B. H.; Bornberg-Bauer, E.; Olsen, J. L.

2016-01-01

Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina,

Human population genetics and “ancestrality” business

OpenAIRE

André Langaney

2009-01-01

Following the foundation of theoretical population genetics by Wright, Fischer, Haldane and Malécot, in the first half of the 20th century, applied human population genetics developed with great success with the improvement and accumulation of new technologies to measure genetic polymorphism, first through protein polymorphisms since the 1960’s, then through DNA typing and sequencing since the 1980’s. The field of population genetics and biological anthropology was developed by a handful of d...

Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

2015-06-01

Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global warming : a guide to the science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.L.; Robinson, A.B.; Robinson, Z.W.

2001-01-01

This guide dispels the popular hypothesis that increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting from increased industrial activity have caused global warming. The report suggests that there is no evidence of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming and that temperature changes over the last 100 years has been due mostly to natural phenomena. The global temperature has increased by about 0.5 to 0.6 degrees C in the past 100 years, and this, before most of the greenhouse gases were added to the air by human activities such as burning of fossil fuels. The initial major rise in temperature was in 1940, before the rise in carbon dioxide levels, therefore, it was suggested that this warming must have been natural in origin. Computer based simulations of the climate system forecast disastrous rises in global temperature. But it was argued that current climate models are not accurate in forecasting future climate change because it is not possible to isolate the effect of an increased concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate because about 5 million different variables have to be considered with all their important impacts and interactions. Science indicates that at most, a little warming will occur and certainly better plant grown which should be of great benefit to mankind. It was concluded that the human condition can be improved through unconstrained access to energy, but use of energy may also produce local unwanted pollutants as a by product. The sources of true environmental pollution can be mitigated based on rational considerations of the risks of pollutants and benefits of energy use. refs., figs

Global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

2017-04-01

The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Zhao

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.

Science.gov (United States)

Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban

2013-01-01

The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective.

Toward a critical anthropology on the impact of global warming on health and human societies.

Science.gov (United States)

Baer, Hans A

2008-01-01

This op-ed essay urges medical anthropologists to join a growing number of public health scholars to examine the impact of global warming on health. Adopting a critical medical anthropology perspective, I argue that global warming is yet another manifestation of the contradictions of the capitalist world system. Ultimately, an serious effort to mitigate the impact of global warming not only on health but also settlement patterns and subsistence will require the creation of a new global political economy based upon social parity, democratic processes, and environmental sustainability.

Global Warming and Its Health Impact

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonella Rossati

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far

Global Warming and Its Health Impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Rossati, Antonella

2017-01-01

Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far as to speed it up

Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

Science.gov (United States)

Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

ExploreNEOs: The Warm Spitzer Near Earth Object Survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trilling, D. E.; Hora, J. L.; Mueller, M.; Thomas, C. A.; Harris, A. W.; Hagen, A. R.; Mommert, M.; Benner, L.; Bhattacharya, B.; Bottke, W. F.; Chesley, S.; Delbo, M.; Emery, J. P.; Fazio, G.; Kistler, J. L.; Mainzer, A.; Morbidelli, A.; Penprase, B.; Smith, H. A.; Spahr, T. B.; Stansberry, J. A.

2012-01-01

We have observed some 600 near Earth objects (NEOs) at 3.6 and 4.5 microns with the Warm Spitzer Space Telescope. We derive the albedo and diameter for each NEO to characterize global properties of the NEO population, among other goals.

Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahlstein, I; Knutti, R; Solomon, S; Portmann, R W

2011-01-01

The Earth is warming on average, and most of the global warming of the past half-century can very likely be attributed to human influence. But the climate in particular locations is much more variable, raising the question of where and when local changes could become perceptible enough to be obvious to people in the form of local warming that exceeds interannual variability; indeed only a few studies have addressed the significance of local signals relative to variability. It is well known that the largest total warming is expected to occur in high latitudes, but high latitudes are also subject to the largest variability, delaying the emergence of significant changes there. Here we show that due to the small temperature variability from one year to another, the earliest emergence of significant warming occurs in the summer season in low latitude countries (∼25 deg. S-25 deg. N). We also show that a local warming signal that exceeds past variability is emerging at present, or will likely emerge in the next two decades, in many tropical countries. Further, for most countries worldwide, a mean global warming of 1 deg. C is sufficient for a significant temperature change, which is less than the total warming projected for any economically plausible emission scenario. The most strongly affected countries emit small amounts of CO 2 per capita and have therefore contributed little to the changes in climate that they are beginning to experience.

Direct effects of warming increase woody plant abundance in a subarctic wetland.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Lindsay G; Beard, Karen H; Adler, Peter B

2018-03-01

Both the direct effects of warming on a species' vital rates and indirect effects of warming caused by interactions with neighboring species can influence plant populations. Furthermore, herbivory mediates the effects of warming on plant community composition in many systems. Thus, determining the importance of direct and indirect effects of warming, while considering the role of herbivory, can help predict long-term plant community dynamics. We conducted a field experiment in the coastal wetlands of western Alaska to investigate how warming and herbivory influence the interactions and abundances of two common plant species, a sedge, Carex ramenskii , and a dwarf shrub, Salix ovalifolia . We used results from the experiment to model the equilibrium abundances of the species under different warming and grazing scenarios and to determine the contribution of direct and indirect effects to predict population changes. Consistent with the current composition of the landscape, model predictions suggest that Carex is more abundant than Salix under ambient temperatures with grazing (53% and 27% cover, respectively). However, with warming and grazing, Salix becomes more abundant than Carex (57% and 41% cover, respectively), reflecting both a negative response of Carex and a positive response of Salix to warming. While grazing reduced the cover of both species, herbivory did not prevent a shift in dominance from sedges to the dwarf shrub. Direct effects of climate change explained about 97% of the total predicted change in species cover, whereas indirect effects explained only 3% of the predicted change. Thus, indirect effects, mediated by interactions between Carex and Salix, were negligible, likely due to use of different niches and weak interspecific interactions. Results suggest that a 2°C increase could cause a shift in dominance from sedges to woody plants on the coast of western Alaska over decadal timescales, and this shift was largely a result of the direct effects

Population issues surface at human settlements conference.

Science.gov (United States)

1996-01-01

This news brief focuses on the debate about population issues at the UN Conference on Human Settlements, held in Istanbul, Turkey, in June 1996. The Istanbul Declaration on Human Settlements was adopted by world leaders at the conference. Leaders were committed to programs to improve standards of living, the right of citizens to adequate housing, and the mobilization of new financial resources. Dr. Sadik, as Executive Director of the UN Population Fund, stressed that natural increase accounts for 60% of urban population growth. Mr. Boutros Boutros-Ghali, as UN Secretary General, stressed that over 50% of world population would live in urban centers by the year 2000, and almost 75% might do so by 2025. He indicated that all nations are interrelated; the poor and refugees from political conflict from one country travel to safer and richer countries. Dr. Sadik referred to the agreement at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) on stabilizing world population in the shortest time possible. This would require meeting the needs of men and women for health, education, and the power of personal decision making. The most important item was the satisfaction of women's need for reproductive health information and services and women's power to use services. Dr. Sadik urged that women be given the right to hold and inherit property and to obtain credit. It was pointed out that the language of Habitat's plan of action on population and development issues was frequently bracketed; consequently, the plan suffered from a lack of consensus. The debate between countries would end, if the language were not bracketed. Dr. Sadik recommended family planning for developing sustainable and liveable cities.

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

Science.gov (United States)

Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-03-01

Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

21 century perspective in radiation protection of humans and human population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vassilev, G.

2003-01-01

In 21 century ionizing radiation is applied in all field of human activities. In parallel, the radiobiology and radiation medicine are developing as separate branches for the purposes of the radiation protection: for risk estimation and regulation of the human irradiation. Main features of radiation protection at the beginning of the century are: 1.Well developed conservative theoretical background, based on the linear non-threshold concept 'dose-effect' towards the carcinogenesis and genetic effects; 2. Developed international and national structures, including organizations as ICRP, UNSCEAR, ICRU, IAEA, WHO, FAO, BEIR, OECD/NEA, ILO, NCRP, NRPB etc. 3. Detailed regulative legislation for all cases of human irradiation, combines with effective control structures. Ionizing radiation is the most strictly regulated factor affecting humans among the all adverse impacts of the living environment. The expectations for the radiation protection in 21 century are: 1. A radical reassessment of the concept for low doses and the linear non-threshold concept since data for existing of a threshold on the human population level. 2. Taking into consideration of the the adaptation to the irradiation, comparable with the natural radiation background. 3. Taking into consideration of the radiation hormesis, which are now ignored by the risk theory. 4. Clarification of the questions of the genetic effects, which are not yet determined for the human population. 5. Radical solutions of the radioactive waste problem, which will be crucial for the future of the nuclear energy production. 6. Gradual overcoming of the fear from ionizing radiation, which is an important social factor

Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

2015-06-01

Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.

Evidence of Recent Intricate Adaptation in Human Populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leeyoung Park

Full Text Available Recent human adaptations have shaped population differentiation in genomic regions containing putative functional variants, mostly located in predicted regulatory elements. However, their actual functionalities and the underlying mechanism of recent adaptation remain poorly understood. In the current study, regions of genes and repeats were investigated for functionality depending on the degree of population differentiation, FST or ΔDAF (a difference in derived allele frequency. The high FST in the 5´ or 3´ untranslated regions (UTRs, in particular, confirmed that population differences arose mainly from differences in regulation. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL analyses using lymphoblastoid cell lines indicated that the majority of the highly population-specific regions represented cis- and/or trans-eQTL. However, groups having the highest ΔDAFs did not necessarily have higher proportions of eQTL variants; in these groups, the patterns were complex, indicating recent intricate adaptations. The results indicated that East Asian (EAS and European populations (EUR experienced mutual selection pressures. The mean derived allele frequency of the high ΔDAF groups suggested that EAS and EUR underwent strong adaptation; however, the African population in Africa (AFR experienced slight, yet broad, adaptation. The DAF distributions of variants in the gene regions showed clear selective pressure in each population, which implies the existence of more recent regulatory adaptations in cells other than lymphoblastoid cell lines. In-depth analysis of population-differentiated regions indicated that the coding gene, RNF135, represented a trans-regulation hotspot via cis-regulation by the population-specific variants in the region of selective sweep. Together, the results provide strong evidence of actual intricate adaptation of human populations via regulatory manipulation.

Human population studies and the World Health Organization.

Science.gov (United States)

de Chadarevian, Soraya

2015-01-01

This essay draws attention to the role of the WHO in shaping research agendas in the biomedical sciences in the postwar era. It considers in particular the genetic studies of human populations that were pursued under the aegis of the WHO from the late 1950s to 1970s. The study provides insights into how human and medical genetics entered the agenda of the WHO. At the same time, the population studies become a focus for tracking changing notions of international relations, cooperation, and development and their impact on research in biology and medicine in the post-World War I era. After a brief discussion of the early history of the WHO and its position in Cold War politics, the essay considers the WHO program in radiation protection and heredity and how the genetic study of "vanishing" human populations and a world-wide genetic study of newborns fitted this broader agenda. It then considers in more detail the kind of support offered by the WHO for these projects. The essay highlights the role of single individuals in taking advantage of WHO support for pushing their research agendas while establishing a trend towards cooperative international projects in biology.

Alu repeats as markers for human population genetics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Batzer, M.A.; Alegria-Hartman, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Bazan, H. [Louisiana State Univ., New Orleans, LA (United States). Medical Center] [and others

1993-09-01

The Human-Specific (HS) subfamily of Alu sequences is comprised of a group of 500 nearly identical members which are almost exclusively restricted to the human genome. Individual subfamily members share an average of 97.9% nucleotide identity with each other and an average of 98.9% nucleotide identity with the HS subfamily consensus sequence. HS Alu family members are thought to be derived from a single source ``master`` gene, and have an average age of 2.8 million years. We have developed a Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) based assay using primers complementary to the 5 in. and 3 in. unique flanking DNA sequences from each HS Alu that allows the locus to be assayed for the presence or absence of an Alu repeat. Individual HS Alu sequences were found to be either monomorphic or dimorphic for the presence or absence of each repeat. The monomorphic HS Alu family members inserted in the human genome after the human/great ape divergence (which is thought to have occurred 4--6 million years ago), but before the radiation of modem man. The dimorphic HS Alu sequences inserted in the human genome after the radiation of modem man (within the last 200,000-one million years) and represent a unique source of information for human population genetics and forensic DNA analyses. These sites can be developed into Dimorphic Alu Sequence Tagged Sites (DASTS) for the Human Genome Project as well. HS Alu family member insertion dimorphism differs from other types of polymorphism (e.g. Variable Number of Tandem Repeat [VNTR] or Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism [RFLP]) because individuals share HS Alu family member insertions based upon identity by descent from a common ancestor as a result of a single event which occurred one time within the human population. The VNTR and RFLP polymorphisms may arise multiple times within a population and are identical by state only.

Human disturbance and upward expansion of plants in a warming climate

Science.gov (United States)

Dainese, Matteo; Aikio, Sami; Hulme, Philip E.; Bertolli, Alessio; Prosser, Filippo; Marini, Lorenzo

2017-08-01

Climate change is expected to trigger an upward expansion of plants in mountain regions and, although there is strong evidence that many native species have already shifted their distributions to higher elevations, little is known regarding how fast non-native species might respond to climate change. By analysing 131,394 occurrence records of 1,334 plant species collected over 20 years in the European Alps, we found that non-natives are spreading upwards approximately twice as fast as natives. Whereas the spread of natives was enhanced by traits favouring longer dispersal distances, this was not the case for non-natives. This was due to the non-native species pool already being strongly biased towards species that had traits facilitating spread. A large proportion of native and non-native species seemed to be able to spread upwards faster than the current velocity of climate change. In particular, long-distance dispersal events and proximity to roads proved to be key drivers for the observed rapid spread. Our findings highlight that invasions by non-native species into native alpine communities are a potentially significant additional pressure on these vulnerable ecosystems that are already likely to suffer dramatic vegetation changes with ongoing warming and increasing human activity in mountain regions.

Magnetic fusion development for global warming suppression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiangang; Zhang Jie; Duan Xuru

2010-01-01

Energy shortage and environmental pollution are two critical issues for human beings in the 21st century. There is an urgent need for new sustainable energy to meet the fast growing demand for clean energy. Fusion is one of the few options which may be able to satisfy the requirement for large scale sustainable energy generation and global warming suppression and therefore must be developed as quickly as possible. Fusion research has been carried out for the past 50 years. It is too long to wait for another 50 years to generate electricity by fusion. A much more aggressive approach should be taken with international collaboration towards the early use of fusion energy to meet the urgent needs for energy and global warming suppression.

Evolution determines how global warming and pesticide exposure will shape predator‐prey interactions with vector mosquitoes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tran, Tam H.; Janssens, Lizanne; Dinh, Khuong Van

2016-01-01

How evolution may mitigate the effects of global warming and pesticide exposure on predator–prey interactions is directly relevant for vector control. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we addressed how 4°C warming and exposure to the pesticide endosulfan shape the predation on Culex...... pipiens mosquitoes by damselfly predators from replicated low- and high-latitude populations. Although warming was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates on these prey. Possibly, under warming escape speeds of the mosquitoes increased more than the attack efficiency of the predators...... at the high latitude will be reduced under warming unless predators evolve toward the current low-latitude phenotype or low-latitude predators move poleward...

Factors Influencing Knowledge, Food Safety Practices and Food Preferences During Warm Weather of Salmonella and Campylobacter Cases in South Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Milazzo, Adriana; Giles, Lynne C; Zhang, Ying; Koehler, Ann P; Hiller, Janet E; Bi, Peng

2017-03-01

To assess food safety practices, food shopping preferences, and eating behaviors of people diagnosed with Salmonella or Campylobacter infection in the warm seasons, and to identify socioeconomic factors associated with behavior and practices. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among Salmonella and Campylobacter cases with onset of illness from January 1 to March 31, 2013. Multivariable logistic regression analyses examined relationships between socioeconomic position and food safety knowledge and practices, shopping and food preferences, and preferences, perceptions, and knowledge about food safety information on warm days. Respondents in our study engaged in unsafe personal and food hygiene practices. They also carried out unsafe food preparation practices, and had poor knowledge of foods associated with an increased risk of foodborne illness. Socioeconomic position did not influence food safety practices. We found that people's reported eating behaviors and food preferences were influenced by warm weather. Our study has explored preferences and practices related to food safety in the warm season months. This is important given that warmer ambient temperatures are projected to rise, both globally and in Australia, and will have a substantial effect on the burden of infectious gastroenteritis including foodborne disease. Our results provide information about modifiable behaviors for the prevention of foodborne illness in the household in the warm weather and the need for information to be disseminated across the general population. An understanding of the knowledge and factors associated with human behavior during warmer weather is critical for public health interventions on foodborne prevention.

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

Science.gov (United States)

Piontek, Franziska; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; deJesusColonGonzalez, Felipe; Floerke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse;

The Relational Concurrence of Global Warming and Economic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

global warming and economic development focusing on the danger it inheres in ... that both developing and developed countries should sink their differences, .... with time. Other fossils exist but are still under investigation. These fossil fuels contribute greatly to human existence in the areas of. Electricity generation and ...

The Effect of Urban Heat Island on Climate Warming in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qunfang Huang

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The Yangtze River Delta (YRD has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development since 1978 and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA has been one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China. We present evidence of a significant urban heat island (UHI effect on climate warming based on an analysis of the impacts of the urbanization rate, urban population, and land use changes on the warming rate of the daily average, minimal (nighttime and maximal (daytime air temperature in the YRDUA using 41 meteorological stations observation data. The effect of the UHI on climate warming shows a large spatial variability. The average warming rates of average air temperature of huge cities, megalopolises, large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities are 0.483, 0.314 ± 0.030, 0.282 ± 0.042, 0.225 ± 0.044 and 0.179 ± 0.046 °C/decade during the period of 1957–2013, respectively. The average warming rates of huge cities and megalopolises are significantly higher than those of medium-sized cities and small cities, indicating that the UHI has a significant effect on climate warming (t-test, p < 0.05. Significantly positive correlations are found between the urbanization rate, population, built-up area and warming rate of average air temperature (p < 0.001. The average warming rate of average air temperature attributable to urbanization is 0.124 ± 0.074 °C/decade in the YRDUA. Urbanization has a measurable effect on the observed climate warming in the YRD aggravating the global climate warming.

Effects of bedtime periocular and posterior cervical cutaneous warming on sleep status in adult male subjects: a preliminary study.

Science.gov (United States)

Igaki, Michihito; Suzuki, Masahiro; Sakamoto, Ichiro; Ichiba, Tomohisa; Kuriyama, Kenichi; Uchiyama, Makoto

2018-01-01

Appropriate warming of the periocular or posterior cervical skin has been reported to induce autonomic or mental relaxation in humans. To clarify the effects of cutaneous warming on human sleep, eight male subjects with mild sleep difficulties were asked to try three experimental conditions at home, each lasting for 5 days, in a cross-over manner: warming of the periocular skin with a warming device for 10 min before habitual bedtime, warming of the posterior cervical skin with a warming device for 30 min before habitual bedtime, and no treatment as a control. The warming device had a heat- and steam-generating sheet that allowed warming of the skin to 40 °C through a chemical reaction with iron. Electroencephalograms (EEGs) were recorded during nocturnal sleep using an ambulatory EEG device and subjected to spectral analysis. All the participants reported their sleep status using a visual analog scale. We found that warming of the periocular or posterior cervical skin significantly improved subjective sleep status relative to the control. The EEG delta power density in the first 90 min of the sleep episode was significantly increased under both warming of the periocular or posterior cervical skin relative to the control. These results suggest that warming of appropriate skin regions may have favorable effects on subjective and objective sleep quality.

Adaptations to local environments in modern human populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, Choongwon; Di Rienzo, Anna

2014-12-01

After leaving sub-Saharan Africa around 50000-100000 years ago, anatomically modern humans have quickly occupied extremely diverse environments. Human populations were exposed to further environmental changes resulting from cultural innovations, such as the spread of farming, which gave rise to new selective pressures related to pathogen exposures and dietary shifts. In addition to changing the frequency of individual adaptive alleles, natural selection may also shape the overall genetic architecture of adaptive traits. Here, we review recent advances in understanding the genetic architecture of adaptive human phenotypes based on insights from the studies of lactase persistence, skin pigmentation and high-altitude adaptation. These adaptations evolved in parallel in multiple human populations, providing a chance to investigate independent realizations of the evolutionary process. We suggest that the outcome of adaptive evolution is often highly variable even under similar selective pressures. Finally, we highlight a growing need for detecting adaptations that did not follow the classical sweep model and for incorporating new sources of genetic evidence such as information from ancient DNA. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intensified Arctic warming under greenhouse warming by vegetation–atmosphere–sea ice interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Linderholm, Hans W; Chen, Deliang; Kim, Baek-Min; Jun, Sang-Yoon

2014-01-01

Observations and modeling studies indicate that enhanced vegetation activities over high latitudes under an elevated CO 2 concentration accelerate surface warming by reducing the surface albedo. In this study, we suggest that vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interactions over high latitudes can induce an additional amplification of Arctic warming. Our hypothesis is tested by a series of coupled vegetation-climate model simulations under 2xCO 2 environments. The increased vegetation activities over high latitudes under a 2xCO 2 condition induce additional surface warming and turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which are transported to the Arctic through the atmosphere. This causes additional sea-ice melting and upper-ocean warming during the warm season. As a consequence, the Arctic and high-latitude warming is greatly amplified in the following winter and spring, which further promotes vegetation activities the following year. We conclude that the vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction gives rise to additional positive feedback of the Arctic amplification. (letter)

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Nitrogen and Warming Control the Vegetation in Inner Mongolia Tourist Area

OpenAIRE

Sun, Qiong; Hu, Xiaobing; Zhang, Chi

2016-01-01

The global warming and atmospheric nitrogen deposition problem has become more and more serious under the influence of human activities, and it has become one of the hot issues in this field, which will have far-reaching impact on all kinds of vegetation, thus the functioning of the ecosystem will be changed, which will be reflected in climate warming process. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is mainly composed of desert grasslands, so the development and protection of vegetation has consider...

Will human populations be limited by food?

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, S. G.

2016-12-01

Historical examples of demographic change, in China, Italy, Nigeria, Utah, the Philippines, and elsewhere, together with simple mathematics and biological principles, show that stabilizing world population before it is limited by food supply will be more difficult than is generally appreciated. United Nations population projections are based on a logical fallacy in that they assume, in spite of the absence of necessary negative feedbacks, that all nations will converge rapidly to replacement-level fertility and thereafter remain at that level. The benign projections that have resulted from this assumption may have hindered efforts to make availability of birth-control a priority in development-aid. Education of women and provision of contraceptives have caused dramatic reductions in fertility, but many groups, including some that are well-educated, maintain high fertility. Small groups with persistent high fertility can grow to supplant low-fertility groups, resulting in continued growth of the total population. The global average fertility rate could rise even if each country's fertility rate is falling. In some low-fertility European countries where deaths exceed births, the population continues to grow because of immigration. Producing more than two offspring is normal for all animal species with stable populations, because their populations are limited by resources or predation rather than birth control. It may therefore be appropriate to view the growth of human population as the result not of excess fertility but rather of excess food. Even if the fertility rate is maintained far in excess of 2, the population cannot grow if food is limiting. Without the agricultural advances of the 20thcentury, world population could not have grown as it did from 1.7 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 2000. The food supply may be enhanced in the future by genetic engineering and other innovations, but it may be limited by water shortage, climate change, pollution, and energy

The interaction of human population, food production, and biodiversity protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Crist, Eileen; Mora, Camilo; Engelman, Robert

2017-04-21

Research suggests that the scale of human population and the current pace of its growth contribute substantially to the loss of biological diversity. Although technological change and unequal consumption inextricably mingle with demographic impacts on the environment, the needs of all human beings-especially for food-imply that projected population growth will undermine protection of the natural world. Numerous solutions have been proposed to boost food production while protecting biodiversity, but alone these proposals are unlikely to staunch biodiversity loss. An important approach to sustaining biodiversity and human well-being is through actions that can slow and eventually reverse population growth: investing in universal access to reproductive health services and contraceptive technologies, advancing women's education, and achieving gender equality. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate change, human health, and epidemiological transition.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Bruce; Charles, Joel W; Temte, Jonathan L

2015-01-01

The health of populations depends on the availability of clean air, water, food, and sanitation, exposure to pathogens, toxins and environmental hazards, and numerous genetic, behavioral and social factors. For many thousands of years, human life expectancy was low, and population growth was slow. The development of technology-based civilizations facilitated what Abdel Omran called "epidemiological transition," with increasing life expectancy and rapid population growth. To a large extent, the spectacular growth of human populations during the past two centuries was made possible by the energy extracted from fossil fuels. We have now learned, however, that greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion are warming the planet's surface, causing changes in oceanic and atmospheric systems, and disrupting weather and hydrological patterns. Climate change poses unprecedented threats to human health by impacts on food and water security, heat waves and droughts, violent storms, infectious disease, and rising sea levels. Whether or not humanity can reduce greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to slow climate change to a rate that will allow societies to successfully adapt is not yet known. This essay reviews the current state of relevant knowledge, and points in a few directions that those interested in human health may wish to consider. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Effects of aerosol emission pathways on future warming and human health

Science.gov (United States)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Matthews, Damon

2016-04-01

The peak global temperature is largely determined by cumulative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases. However, anthropogenic emissions include also so-called short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol particles and methane. Previous studies with simple models indicate that the timing of SLCF emission reductions has only a small effect on the rate of global warming and even less of an effect on global peak temperatures. However, these simple model analyses do not capture the spatial dynamics of aerosol-climate interactions, nor do they consider the additional effects of aerosol emissions on human health. There is therefore merit in assessing how the timing of aerosol emission reductions affects global temperature and premature mortality caused by elevated aerosol concentrations, using more comprehensive climate models. Here, we used an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to simulate the direct and indirect radiative forcing resulting from aerosol emissions. We simulated Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and we also designed idealized low and high aerosol emission pathways based on RCP4.5 scenario (LOW and HIGH, respectively). From these simulations, we calculated the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) from aerosol emissions between 1850 and 2100, as well as aerosol concentrations used to estimate the premature mortality caused by particulate pollution. We then use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to simulate the spatial and temporal pattern of climate response to these aerosol-forcing scenarios, in combination with prescribed emissions of both short and long-lived greenhouse gases according to the RCP4.5 scenario. In the RCP scenarios, global mean ERF declined during the 21st century from -1.3 W m-2 to -0.4 W m-2 (RCP8.5) and -0.2 W m-2 (RCP2.6). In the sensitivity scenarios, the forcing at the end of the 21st century was -1.6 W m-2 (HIGH) and practically zero (LOW). The difference in global mean temperature

THEORETICAL AND IDEOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE GLOBAL WARMING DISCOURSE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucas Moreira Sales de Oliveira

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The global warming derived from human activities issue takes account today of a considerable part of individual and public attention in the political, economic, social and environmental scenario. The theoretical and ideological aspects of the environmental discourses involved are however often ignored. This paper aims to bring to light without attempting to exhaust the discussion on this subject (the ideology that involves interpretations of global climate change. To reach the objective it will be used de theoretical framework of ideology developed by Göhan Therborn (1991 applied to Six Degrees book by Mark Lynas (2009 and An inconvenient truth documentary by Al Gore (2006 analysis. Both works served as an example for the characterization of the point of view that blames human activities for global warming as ideological and how this ideology interpellates the individuals, in order to submit and qualify them.

Global Warming: A Review of the Debates on the Causes ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Global Warming: A Review of the Debates on the Causes, Consequences and ... of many species, population displacement/migration, desertification, famine, ... and make it a major political, institutional and environmental challenge of our time. ... Alternative actions such as climate change adaptation and/or mitigation ...

Scientists' Views about Attribution of Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

2015-04-01

What do scientists think? That is an important question when engaging in science communication, in which an attempt is made to communicate the scientific understanding to a lay audience. To address this question we undertook a large and detailed survey among scientists studying various aspects of climate change , dubbed "perhaps the most thorough survey of climate scientists ever" by well-known climate scientist and science communicator Gavin Schmidt. Among more than 1800 respondents we found widespread agreement that global warming is predominantly caused by human greenhouse gases. This consensus strengthens with increased expertise, as defined by the number of self-reported articles in the peer-reviewed literature. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), agreed that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of recent global warming, i.e. having contributed more than half of the observed warming. With this survey we specified what the consensus position entails with much greater specificity than previous studies. The relevance of this consensus for science communication will be discussed. Another important result from our survey is that the main attribution statement in IPCC's fourth assessment report (AR4) may lead to an underestimate of the greenhouse gas contribution to warming, because it implicitly includes the lesser known masking effect of cooling aerosols. This shows the importance of the exact wording in high-profile reports such as those from IPCC in how the statement is perceived, even by fellow scientists. The phrasing was improved in the most recent assessment report (AR5). Respondents who characterized the human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change. This shows that contrarian opinions are amplified in the media in relation to their prevalence in the scientific community. This

Learning about human population history from ancient and modern genomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoneking, Mark; Krause, Johannes

2011-08-18

Genome-wide data, both from SNP arrays and from complete genome sequencing, are becoming increasingly abundant and are now even available from extinct hominins. These data are providing new insights into population history; in particular, when combined with model-based analytical approaches, genome-wide data allow direct testing of hypotheses about population history. For example, genome-wide data from both contemporary populations and extinct hominins strongly support a single dispersal of modern humans from Africa, followed by two archaic admixture events: one with Neanderthals somewhere outside Africa and a second with Denisovans that (so far) has only been detected in New Guinea. These new developments promise to reveal new stories about human population history, without having to resort to storytelling.

Global warning, global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benarde, M.A.

1992-01-01

This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

2018-04-01

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

Integrating common and rare genetic variation in diverse human populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Altshuler, David M; Gibbs, Richard A; Peltonen, Leena; Altshuler, David M; Gibbs, Richard A; Peltonen, Leena; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil; Schaffner, Stephen F; Yu, Fuli; Peltonen, Leena; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil; Bonnen, Penelope E; Altshuler, David M; Gibbs, Richard A; de Bakker, Paul I W; Deloukas, Panos; Gabriel, Stacey B; Gwilliam, Rhian; Hunt, Sarah; Inouye, Michael; Jia, Xiaoming; Palotie, Aarno; Parkin, Melissa; Whittaker, Pamela; Yu, Fuli; Chang, Kyle; Hawes, Alicia; Lewis, Lora R; Ren, Yanru; Wheeler, David; Gibbs, Richard A; Muzny, Donna Marie; Barnes, Chris; Darvishi, Katayoon; Hurles, Matthew; Korn, Joshua M; Kristiansson, Kati; Lee, Charles; McCarrol, Steven A; Nemesh, James; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil; Keinan, Alon; Montgomery, Stephen B; Pollack, Samuela; Price, Alkes L; Soranzo, Nicole; Bonnen, Penelope E; Gibbs, Richard A; Gonzaga-Jauregui, Claudia; Keinan, Alon; Price, Alkes L; Yu, Fuli; Anttila, Verneri; Brodeur, Wendy; Daly, Mark J; Leslie, Stephen; McVean, Gil; Moutsianas, Loukas; Nguyen, Huy; Schaffner, Stephen F; Zhang, Qingrun; Ghori, Mohammed J R; McGinnis, Ralph; McLaren, William; Pollack, Samuela; Price, Alkes L; Schaffner, Stephen F; Takeuchi, Fumihiko; Grossman, Sharon R; Shlyakhter, Ilya; Hostetter, Elizabeth B; Sabeti, Pardis C; Adebamowo, Clement A; Foster, Morris W; Gordon, Deborah R; Licinio, Julio; Manca, Maria Cristina; Marshall, Patricia A; Matsuda, Ichiro; Ngare, Duncan; Wang, Vivian Ota; Reddy, Deepa; Rotimi, Charles N; Royal, Charmaine D; Sharp, Richard R; Zeng, Changqing; Brooks, Lisa D; McEwen, Jean E

2010-09-02

Despite great progress in identifying genetic variants that influence human disease, most inherited risk remains unexplained. A more complete understanding requires genome-wide studies that fully examine less common alleles in populations with a wide range of ancestry. To inform the design and interpretation of such studies, we genotyped 1.6 million common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1,184 reference individuals from 11 global populations, and sequenced ten 100-kilobase regions in 692 of these individuals. This integrated data set of common and rare alleles, called 'HapMap 3', includes both SNPs and copy number polymorphisms (CNPs). We characterized population-specific differences among low-frequency variants, measured the improvement in imputation accuracy afforded by the larger reference panel, especially in imputing SNPs with a minor allele frequency of populations supports deeper interrogation of genomic variation and its role in human disease, and serves as a step towards a high-resolution map of the landscape of human genetic variation.

Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Torkjel M. Sandanger

2011-11-01

Full Text Available In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed specifically considering their exposure and sensitivity to long range transported contaminants.Considering that the different parts of pregnancy are particularly sensitive time periods for the effects of environmental exposure, this review focuses on the impacts on maternal and newborn health. Environmental stressors known to affects human health and how these will change with the predicted climate change are addressed. Air pollution and food security are crucial issues for the pregnant population in a changing climate, especially indoor climate and food security in Arctic areas.The total number of environmental factors is today responsible for a large number of the global deaths, especially in young children. Climate change will most likely lead to an increase in this number. Exposure to the different environmental stressors especially air pollution will in most parts of the world increase with climate change, even though some areas might face lower exposure. Populations at risk today are believed to be most heavily affected. As for the persistent organic pollutants a warming climate leads to a remobilisation and a possible increase in food chain exposure in the Arctic and thus increased risk for Arctic populations. This is especially the case for mercury. The perspective for the next generations will be closely connected to the expected temperature changes; changes in housing conditions; changes in exposure patterns; predicted increased exposure to Mercury

Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

Science.gov (United States)

Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

1992-10-01

One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

Early warm-rewarding parenting moderates the genetic contributions to callous-unemotional traits in childhood.

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Jeffrey; Dionne, Ginette; Viding, Essi; Vitaro, Frank; Brendgen, Mara; Tremblay, Richard E; Boivin, Michel

2018-04-23

Previous gene-environment interaction studies of CU traits have relied on the candidate gene approach, which does not account for the entire genetic load of complex phenotypes. Moreover, these studies have not examined the role of positive environmental factors such as warm/rewarding parenting. The aim of the present study was to determine whether early warm/rewarding parenting moderates the genetic contributions (i.e., heritability) to callous-unemotional (CU) traits at school age. Data were collected in a population sample of 662 twin pairs (Quebec Newborn Twin Study - QNTS). Mothers reported on their warm/rewarding parenting. Teachers assessed children's CU traits. These reports were subjected to twin modeling. Callous-unemotional traits were highly heritable, with the remaining variance accounted for by nonshared environmental factors. Warm/rewarding parenting significantly moderated the role of genes in CU traits; heritability was lower when children received high warm/rewarding parenting than when they were exposed to low warm/rewarding parenting. High warm/rewarding parenting may partly impede the genetic expression of CU traits. Developmental models of CU traits need to account for such gene-environment processes. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Global Warming: A Review of the Debates on the Causes ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

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Humans have changed the chemistry of the earth's atmosphere; most .... computer models predict that the effects of global warming will be very strong in the polar ..... to Monckton (2011) and Riebeek (2007), a natural decline in cloud cover.

The relationship between peak warming and cumulative CO2 emissions, and its use to quantify vulnerabilities in the carbon-climate-human system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raupach, Michael; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Rayner, Peter J.; Trudinger, Catherine M.

2011-01-01

Interactions between the carbon cycle, climate and human societies are subject to several major vulnerabilities, broadly defined as factors contributing to the risk of harm from human-induced climate change. We assess five vulnerabilities: (1) effects of increasing CO 2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon between atmospheric, land and ocean reservoirs; (2) effects of climate change (quantified by temperature) on CO 2 fluxes; (3) uncertainty in climate sensitivity; (4) non-CO 2 radiative forcing and (5) anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Our analysis uses a physically based expression for Tp(Qp), the peak warming Tp associated with a cumulative anthropogenic CO 2 emission Qp to the time of peak warming. The approximations in this expression are evaluated using a non-linear box model of the carbon-climate system, forced with capped emissions trajectories described by an analytic form satisfying integral and smoothness constraints. The first four vulnerabilities appear as parameters that influence Tp(Qp), whereas the last appears through the independent variable. In terms of likely implications for Tp(Qp), the decreasing order of the first four vulnerabilities is: uncertainties in climate sensitivity, effects of non-CO 2 radiative forcing, effects of climate change on CO 2 fluxes and effects of increasing CO 2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon. (authors)

[The innovation of warm disease theory in the Ming Dynasty before Wen yi lun On Pestilence].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhi-bin

2008-10-01

Some doctors of the Ming dynasty raised subversive doubts against the traditional viewpoints of "exogenous cold disease is warm-heat" before the emergence of Wen yi lun (On Pestilence), holding that warm-heat disease "is contracted in different seasons instead of being transformed from cold to warm and/or heat". The conception of the separation of warm-heat disease and exogenous cold disease had changed from obscure to clear. As the idea became clear, the recognition on the new affection of warm, heat, summer-heat, pestilent pathogen was formed, and the idea that the pathogens of summer-heat and warm entered the human body through the mouth and nostrils was put forward. The six-channel syndrome differentiation of warm disease and the five sweat-resolving methods in pestilence raised by the doctors of this period are the aspects of the differential diagnosis of syndrome and treatment in warm diseases, and deserve to be paid attention to.

Examining the Gap between Science and Public Opinion about Genetically Modified Food and Global Warming.

Science.gov (United States)

McFadden, Brandon R

2016-01-01

There is great uncertainty due to challenges of escalating population growth and climate change. Public perception that diverges from the scientific community may decrease the effectiveness of scientific inquiry and innovation as tools to solve these challenges. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with the divergence of public opinion from scientific consensus regarding the safety of genetically modified (GM) foods and human involvement in global warming (GW). Results indicate that the effects of knowledge on public opinion are complex and non-uniform across types of knowledge (i.e., perceived and actual) or issues. Political affiliation affects agreement with science; Democrats were more likely to agree that GM food is safe and human actions cause GW. Respondents who had relatively higher cognitive function or held illusionary correlations about GM food or GW were more likely to have an opinion that differed from the scientific community.

Examining the Gap between Science and Public Opinion about Genetically Modified Food and Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

McFadden, Brandon R.

2016-01-01

There is great uncertainty due to challenges of escalating population growth and climate change. Public perception that diverges from the scientific community may decrease the effectiveness of scientific inquiry and innovation as tools to solve these challenges. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with the divergence of public opinion from scientific consensus regarding the safety of genetically modified (GM) foods and human involvement in global warming (GW). Results indicate that the effects of knowledge on public opinion are complex and non-uniform across types of knowledge (i.e., perceived and actual) or issues. Political affiliation affects agreement with science; Democrats were more likely to agree that GM food is safe and human actions cause GW. Respondents who had relatively higher cognitive function or held illusionary correlations about GM food or GW were more likely to have an opinion that differed from the scientific community. PMID:27829008

Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Meehan, Casey R.

2012-01-01

Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz…

Global warming combat policies in energy sector of Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahimi, N.; Karbassi, A. R.; Abbaspour, M.

2002-01-01

Among the efforts to slow the potential for climate change are measures to reduce emissions of CO 2 from energy use, and promote long-term storage of carbon in forests and soils. Important environmental changes due to climate change and global warming pose potentially significant risks to humans, social systems, and natural world. Many uncertainties remain regarding precise timing,magnitude, and regional patterns of climate change and the extent to which mankind and nature can adapt to any changes. Estimating technical / economical / environmental potentials for reducing CO 2 emission in energy sector and preventing of global warming is one of the main activities, which have been performed for the first time in Iran. By use of 26 factors, model on global warming combat policies in energy sector of Iran in long-medium and short term determine decreasing amount of CO 2 emission. The results and also method of providing this model will be described in this paper

Fluctuating Asymmetry of Human Populations: A Review

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John H. Graham

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Fluctuating asymmetry, the random deviation from perfect symmetry, is a widely used population-level index of developmental instability, developmental noise, and robustness. It reflects a population’s state of adaptation and genomic coadaptation. Here, we review the literature on fluctuating asymmetry of human populations. The most widely used bilateral traits include skeletal, dental, and facial dimensions; dermatoglyphic patterns and ridge counts; and facial shape. Each trait has its advantages and disadvantages, but results are most robust when multiple traits are combined into a composite index of fluctuating asymmetry (CFA. Both environmental (diet, climate, toxins and genetic (aneuploidy, heterozygosity, inbreeding stressors have been linked to population-level variation in fluctuating asymmetry. In general, these stressors increase average fluctuating asymmetry. Nevertheless, there have been many conflicting results, in part because (1 fluctuating asymmetry is a weak signal in a sea of noise; and (2 studies of human fluctuating asymmetry have not always followed best practices. The most serious concerns are insensitive asymmetry indices (correlation coefficient and coefficient of indetermination, inappropriate size scaling, unrecognized mixture distributions, inappropriate corrections for directional asymmetry, failure to use composite indices, and inattention to measurement error. Consequently, it is often difficult (or impossible to compare results across traits, and across studies.

Experimental evidence of the synergistic effects of warming and invasive algae on a temperate reef-builder coral.

Science.gov (United States)

Kersting, Diego K; Cebrian, Emma; Casado, Clara; Teixidó, Núria; Garrabou, Joaquim; Linares, Cristina

2015-12-22

In the current global climate change scenario, stressors overlap in space and time, and knowledge on the effects of their interaction is highly needed to understand and predict the response and resilience of organisms. Corals, among many other benthic organisms, are affected by an increasing number of global change-related stressors including warming and invasive species. In this study, the cumulative effects between warming and invasive algae were experimentally assessed on the temperate reef-builder coral Cladocora caespitosa. We first investigated the potential local adaptation to thermal stress in two distant populations subjected to contrasting thermal and necrosis histories. No significant differences were found between populations. Colonies from both populations suffered no necrosis after long-term exposure to temperatures up to 29 °C. Second, we tested the effects of the interaction of both warming and the presence of invasive algae. The combined exposure triggered critical synergistic effects on photosynthetic efficiency and tissue necrosis. At the end of the experiment, over 90% of the colonies subjected to warming and invasive algae showed signs of necrosis. The results are of particular concern when considering the predicted increase of extreme climatic events and the spread of invasive species in the Mediterranean and other seas in the future.

Active Movement Warm-Up Routines

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, Teri; Quint, Ashleigh; Fischer, Kim; Kiger, Joy

2011-01-01

This article presents warm-ups that are designed to physiologically and psychologically prepare students for vigorous physical activity. An active movement warm-up routine is made up of three parts: (1) active warm-up movement exercises, (2) general preparation, and (3) the energy system. These warm-up routines can be used with all grade levels…

21 CFR 864.9205 - Blood and plasma warming device.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Blood and plasma warming device. 864.9205 Section 864.9205 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES HEMATOLOGY AND PATHOLOGY DEVICES Products Used In Establishments That Manufacture...

Statistical Processing Algorithms for Human Population Databases

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Camelia COLESCU

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The article is describing some algoritms for statistic functions aplied to a human population database. The samples are specific for the most interesting periods, when the evolution of statistical datas has spectacolous value. The article describes the most usefull form of grafical prezentation of the results

Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, I-I; Chan, Johnny C.L.

2015-01-01

Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ∼35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition ‘worsened' at the same time. The ‘worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the ‘better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling. PMID:25990561

Global Warming: The Balance of Evidence and Its Policy Implications

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Charles Keller

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Global warming and attendant climate change have been controversial for at least a decade. This is largely because of its societal implications. With the recent publication of the Third Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change there has been renewed interest and controversy about how certain the scientific community is of its conclusions: that humans are influencing the climate and that global temperatures will continue to rise rapidly in this century. This review attempts to update what is known and in particular what advances have been made in the past 5 years or so. It does not attempt to be comprehensive. Rather it focuses on the most controversial issues, which are actually few in number. They are: 1-Is the surface temperature record accurate or is it biased by heat from cities, etc.? 2-Is that record significantly different from past warmings such as the Medieval Warming Period? 3-Is not the sun’s increasing activity the cause of most of the warming? 4-Can we model climate and predict its future, or is it just too complex and chaotic? 5-Are there any other changes in climate other than warming, and can they be attributed to the warming?Despite continued uncertainties, the review finds affirmative answers to these questions. Of particular interest are advances that seem to explain why satellites do not see as much warming as surface instruments, how we are getting a good idea of recent paleoclimates, and why the 20th century temperature record was so complex. It makes the point that in each area new information could come to light that would change our thinking on the quantitative magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming, but it is unlikely to alter the basic conclusions.Finally, there is a very brief discussion of the societal policy response to the scientific message, and the author comments on his 2-year email discussions with many of the world’s most outspoken critics of the

Global Warming: A Review of the Debates on the Causes ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

USER

Herath (2011), the debates are human versus natural, small amount of warming versus ... computer model simulations and supported by Kyoto Protocol since it is without scientific ..... priorities, the Kyoto Protocol was a battleground between businesses and ... as OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries).

Warm Mix Asphalt

Science.gov (United States)

2009-04-17

State of Alaska State of Alaska - Warm Mix Project Warm Mix Project: Location - Petersburg, Alaska which is Petersburg, Alaska which is located in the heart of Southeast Alaska located in the heart of Southeast Alaska's Inside Passage at the tip of M...

Parallel selection on TRPV6 in human populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, David A; Tang, Kun; Strotmann, Rainer; Schöneberg, Torsten; Prenen, Jean; Nilius, Bernd; Stoneking, Mark

2008-02-27

We identified and examined a candidate gene for local directional selection in Europeans, TRPV6, and conclude that selection has acted on standing genetic variation at this locus, creating parallel soft sweep events in humans. A novel modification of the extended haplotype homozygosity (EHH) test was utilized, which compares EHH for a single allele across populations, to investigate the signature of selection at TRPV6 and neighboring linked loci in published data sets for Europeans, Asians and African-Americans, as well as in newly-obtained sequence data for additional populations. We find that all non-African populations carry a signature of selection on the same haplotype at the TRPV6 locus. The selective footprints, however, are significantly differentiated between non-African populations and estimated to be younger than an ancestral population of non-Africans. The possibility of a single selection event occurring in an ancestral population of non-Africans was tested by simulations and rejected. The putatively-selected TRPV6 haplotype contains three candidate sites for functional differences, namely derived non-synonymous substitutions C157R, M378V and M681T. Potential functional differences between the ancestral and derived TRPV6 proteins were investigated by cloning the ancestral and derived forms, transfecting cell lines, and carrying out electrophysiology experiments via patch clamp analysis. No statistically-significant differences in biophysical channel function were found, although one property of the protein, namely Ca(2+) dependent inactivation, may show functionally relevant differences between the ancestral and derived forms. Although the reason for selection on this locus remains elusive, this is the first demonstration of a widespread parallel selection event acting on standing genetic variation in humans, and highlights the utility of between population EHH statistics.

Parallel selection on TRPV6 in human populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David A Hughes

Full Text Available We identified and examined a candidate gene for local directional selection in Europeans, TRPV6, and conclude that selection has acted on standing genetic variation at this locus, creating parallel soft sweep events in humans. A novel modification of the extended haplotype homozygosity (EHH test was utilized, which compares EHH for a single allele across populations, to investigate the signature of selection at TRPV6 and neighboring linked loci in published data sets for Europeans, Asians and African-Americans, as well as in newly-obtained sequence data for additional populations. We find that all non-African populations carry a signature of selection on the same haplotype at the TRPV6 locus. The selective footprints, however, are significantly differentiated between non-African populations and estimated to be younger than an ancestral population of non-Africans. The possibility of a single selection event occurring in an ancestral population of non-Africans was tested by simulations and rejected. The putatively-selected TRPV6 haplotype contains three candidate sites for functional differences, namely derived non-synonymous substitutions C157R, M378V and M681T. Potential functional differences between the ancestral and derived TRPV6 proteins were investigated by cloning the ancestral and derived forms, transfecting cell lines, and carrying out electrophysiology experiments via patch clamp analysis. No statistically-significant differences in biophysical channel function were found, although one property of the protein, namely Ca(2+ dependent inactivation, may show functionally relevant differences between the ancestral and derived forms. Although the reason for selection on this locus remains elusive, this is the first demonstration of a widespread parallel selection event acting on standing genetic variation in humans, and highlights the utility of between population EHH statistics.

Patterns of cis regulatory variation in diverse human populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbara E Stranger

Full Text Available The genetic basis of gene expression variation has long been studied with the aim to understand the landscape of regulatory variants, but also more recently to assist in the interpretation and elucidation of disease signals. To date, many studies have looked in specific tissues and population-based samples, but there has been limited assessment of the degree of inter-population variability in regulatory variation. We analyzed genome-wide gene expression in lymphoblastoid cell lines from a total of 726 individuals from 8 global populations from the HapMap3 project and correlated gene expression levels with HapMap3 SNPs located in cis to the genes. We describe the influence of ancestry on gene expression levels within and between these diverse human populations and uncover a non-negligible impact on global patterns of gene expression. We further dissect the specific functional pathways differentiated between populations. We also identify 5,691 expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs after controlling for both non-genetic factors and population admixture and observe that half of the cis-eQTLs are replicated in one or more of the populations. We highlight patterns of eQTL-sharing between populations, which are partially determined by population genetic relatedness, and discover significant sharing of eQTL effects between Asians, European-admixed, and African subpopulations. Specifically, we observe that both the effect size and the direction of effect for eQTLs are highly conserved across populations. We observe an increasing proximity of eQTLs toward the transcription start site as sharing of eQTLs among populations increases, highlighting that variants close to TSS have stronger effects and therefore are more likely to be detected across a wider panel of populations. Together these results offer a unique picture and resource of the degree of differentiation among human populations in functional regulatory variation and provide an estimate for

Global human capital: integrating education and population.

Science.gov (United States)

Lutz, Wolfgang; KC, Samir

2011-07-29

Almost universally, women with higher levels of education have fewer children. Better education is associated with lower mortality, better health, and different migration patterns. Hence, the global population outlook depends greatly on further progress in education, particularly of young women. By 2050, the highest and lowest education scenarios--assuming identical education-specific fertility rates--result in world population sizes of 8.9 and 10.0 billion, respectively. Better education also matters for human development, including health, economic growth, and democracy. Existing methods of multi-state demography can quantitatively integrate education into standard demographic analysis, thus adding the "quality" dimension.

How warm days increase belief in global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Neutral Theory: From Complex Population History to Natural Selection and Sociocultural Phenomena in Human Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Austerlitz, Frédéric; Heyer, Evelyne

2018-06-01

Here, we present a synthetic view on how Kimura's Neutral theory has helped us gaining insight on the different evolutionary forces that shape human evolution. We put this perspective in the frame of recent emerging challenges: the use of whole genome data for reconstructing population histories, natural selection on complex polygenic traits, and integrating cultural processes in human evolution.

Refrigeration and global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1997-01-01

Some aspects of global warming in general, and the implications for refrigerants and refrigerator efficiency in particular, are briefly considered in a question and answer format. The concepts of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) are explained. GWP is an index which allows a simple comparison to be make between the warming effects of different gases on a kg to kg basis relative to carbon. The GWP depends both on the lifetime of a substance in the atmosphere and its infra-red absorption capacity. The overall warming effect of operating a refrigeration system for its entire life is measured by its TEWI. Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) which have been widely used as refrigerants are powerful greenhouse gases with high GWPs. Because of the bank of CFCs in refrigerating systems, their levels in the atmosphere are still increasing and it will be some time before refrigerant changes will be effective in reducing the warming effects of refrigerant releases. Hydrocarbons, hydroflourocarbons and ammonia all have a part to play as substitute refrigerants. Refrigerator efficiency is very important in terms of reducing CO 2 emissions. (UK)

Canada and global warming: Meeting the challenge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

Canada accounts for ca 2% of total world emissions of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide emissions are by far the largest greenhouse gas source in Canada, primarily from energy consumption. On a per capita basis, Canada ranks second among industrialized countries in terms of energy related carbon dioxide emissions. Canada's northern geography and climate, its export-oriented economy with energy-intensive resource industries, and its relatively small population dispersed over a wide land mass contribute to this high per-capita value. The effects of global warming induced by greenhouse gases are outlined, including a reduction in water supplies, droughts affecting agriculture and forestry, and large-scale thawing of permafrost. A national strategy to respond to global warming has been developed which includes limiting and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, preparing for potential climatic changes, and improving scientific understanding and predictive capabilities with respect to climate change. Details of this strategy are outlined, including provincial and territorial strategies in partnership with the national strategy. 11 figs., 2 tabs

Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

Science.gov (United States)

Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

Science.gov (United States)

Sparks, Morgan M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Thomas P.; Adkison, Milo D.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Bartz, Krista K.; Young, Daniel B.; Westley, Peter A. H.

2018-01-01

We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

Attitude of US obstetricians and gynaecologists to global warming and medical waste.

Science.gov (United States)

Thiel, Cassandra; Duncan, Paula; Woods, Noe

2017-01-01

Objectives Global warming (or climate change) is a major public health issue, and health services are one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in high-income countries. Despite the scale of the health care sector's resource consumption, little is known about the attitude of physicians and their willingness to participate in efforts to reduce the environmental impact of health services. Methods A survey of 236 obstetricians and gynaecologists at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center in Western Pennsylvania, USA. Survey responses were compared to Gallup poll data from the general population using a one-sample test of proportions, Fisher's exact tests, Chi-square test, and logistic regression. Results Physicians in obstetrics and gynaecology were more likely than the public (84% vs. 54%; pglobal warming is occurring, that media portrayal of its seriousness is accurate, and that it is caused by human activities. Two-thirds of physicians felt the amount of surgical waste generated is excessive and increasing. The majority (95%) would support efforts to reduce waste, with 66% favouring the use of reusable surgical tools over disposable where clinically equivalent. Despite their preference for reusable surgical instruments, only 20% preferred the reusable devices available to them. Conclusions Health care providers engaging in sustainability efforts may encounter significant support from physicians and may benefit from including physician leaders in their efforts.

Communicating and countering misconceptions about the scientific consensus on human-caused global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, J.

2016-12-01

A number of studies have sought to quantify the level of agreement among climate scientists on human-caused global warming. This has included surveys of the scientific community, analyses of public declarations about climate change and analyses of peer-reviewed climate papers. This body of research has found that the level of consensus increases with expertise in climate science, culminating in 97% agreement among publishing climate scientists. Despite this robust finding, there is a significant gap between public perception of scientific consensus and the overwhelming agreement among climate scientists. This "consensus gap" is due in large part to a persistent, focused campaign to manufacture doubt about the scientific consensus by opponents of climate action. This campaign has employed non-expert spokespeople, magnified the small minority of dissenting scientists and exploited the journalistic norm of balance to generate the impression of an equal debate among scientists. Given the importance of perceived consensus as a "gateway belief" influencing a number of climate beliefs and attitudes, it is imperative that climate communicators close the consensus gap. This can be achieved by communicating the 97% consensus and explaining the techniques used to cast doubt on the consensus.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

Science.gov (United States)

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Scientists' views about attribution of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

2014-08-19

Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents' quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)-providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution-may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents' views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.

Examining the Gap between Science and Public Opinion about Genetically Modified Food and Global Warming.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brandon R McFadden

Full Text Available There is great uncertainty due to challenges of escalating population growth and climate change. Public perception that diverges from the scientific community may decrease the effectiveness of scientific inquiry and innovation as tools to solve these challenges. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with the divergence of public opinion from scientific consensus regarding the safety of genetically modified (GM foods and human involvement in global warming (GW. Results indicate that the effects of knowledge on public opinion are complex and non-uniform across types of knowledge (i.e., perceived and actual or issues. Political affiliation affects agreement with science; Democrats were more likely to agree that GM food is safe and human actions cause GW. Respondents who had relatively higher cognitive function or held illusionary correlations about GM food or GW were more likely to have an opinion that differed from the scientific community.

Global warming: What should we do to stop or slow?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guenalp, B.

2006-01-01

Earth is warming much faster than had been predicted. 2005 was the warmest year on record, surpassing 1998. The multinational Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report recently concluded that in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia, average temperatures have increased 3 to 4 degrees Celsius in the past 50 years. Rising temperatures have a dramatic impact on Arctic ice. Since 1978 Arctic sea ice area has shrunk by some 9 percent per decade, and thinned as well. There are three specific events especially worrisome and potentially imminent, although the time frames are a matter of dispute: dramatic sea level rise by the end of the century that would take tens of thousand years to reverse; widespread coral bleaching that could be damage the world's fisheries within three decades; and, within 200 years, a shutdown of the ocean current that moderates temperatures in northern Europe. Global warming is caused by human activities such as burning nature's vast store of coal, oil and nature gas which releases billions of tones carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) every year. If current trends continue, we will raise atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to double pre-industrial levels during this century. That will probably be enough to raise global temperatures by around 2 degree C to 5 degree C. Even if humans stop burning oil and coal tomorrow we have already spewed enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to cause temperatures to warm and sea levels to rise for at least another century. So what should we do? We can not continue drawing energy from fossil fuels and there is no chance that the renewable, wind, tide, and water power can provide enough energy and in time. Nuclear energy is the only one immediately available source does not cause global warming. In this presentation consequences and risks of global warming, as well as nuclear power comparisons will be discussed comprehensively

Genetic Diversity and Distribution of Blastocystis Subtype 3 in Human Populations, with Special Reference to a Rural Population in Central Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liliana Rojas-Velázquez

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Blastocystis subtype 3 (ST3 is a parasitic protist found in the digestive tract of symptomatic and asymptomatic humans around the world. While this parasite exhibits a high prevalence in the human population, its true geographic distribution and global genetic diversity are still unknown. This gap in knowledge limits the understanding of the spread mechanisms, epidemiology, and impact that this parasite has on human populations. Herein, we provided new data on the geographical distribution and genetic diversity of Blastocystis ST3 from a rural human population in Mexico. To do so, we collected and targeted the SSU-rDNA region in fecal samples from this population and further compared its genetic diversity and structure with that previously observed in populations of Blastocystis ST3 from other regions of the planet. Our analyses reveled that diversity of Blastocystis ST3 showed a high haplotype diversity and genetic structure to the world level; however, they were low in the Morelos population. The haplotype network revealed a common widespread haplotype from which the others were generated recently. Finally, our results suggested a recent expansion of the diversity of Blastocystis ST3 worldwide.

Effects of global warming on floods and droughts in the Caribbean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, Kailas

2004-01-01

The Caribbean islands stretch in an arc from Cuba, south of Florida, to Trinidad and Tobago, north of the South American coast. The islands range in size from 100,000 square kilometers to 100 square kilometers, with populations ranging from ten million to less than ten thousand people. There is a wide range of rainfall in the region, occurring mainly from the Inter-Tropical convergence Zone, Tropical Waves and Hurricanes. There are also extended periods of droughts in the dry season. As a result the islands suffer from droughts as well as floods. These phenomena can have devastating results on the economies of the islands, resulting in extreme hardships for the population as well as forced shifting of population centers. Change of precipitation patterns as a result of Global warming can only worsen the situation. In this paper the author attempts an investigation into the effects of global warming and the resulting impacts in terms of droughts, floods on the Caribbean islands and on coastal areas of continental countries in the Caribbean. Vulnerability and risks are also investigated in terms of these phenomena. (Author)

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-11-16

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-01-01

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

Peranan Environmental Accounting Terhadap Global Warming

OpenAIRE

Martusa, Riki

2009-01-01

This article explores about is global warming. The distortion of nature causes global warming. Industrial sector is one of global warming incurred. Some nations create a group to cope this matter. They try to reduce carbon emission as one of global warming causes by controlling industrial carbon emission through financial reporting. This article explores normatively roles of environmental accounting in cope with global warming.  

Cost, energy, global warming, eutrophication and local human health impacts of community water and sanitation service options.

Science.gov (United States)

Schoen, Mary E; Xue, Xiaobo; Wood, Alison; Hawkins, Troy R; Garland, Jay; Ashbolt, Nicholas J

2017-02-01

We compared water and sanitation system options for a coastal community across selected sustainability metrics, including environmental impact (i.e., life cycle eutrophication potential, energy consumption, and global warming potential), equivalent annual cost, and local human health impact. We computed normalized metric scores, which we used to discuss the options' strengths and weaknesses, and conducted sensitivity analysis of the scores to changes in variable and uncertain input parameters. The alternative systems, which combined centralized drinking water with sanitation services based on the concepts of energy and nutrient recovery as well as on-site water reuse, had reduced environmental and local human health impacts and costs than the conventional, centralized option. Of the selected sustainability metrics, the greatest advantages of the alternative community water systems (compared to the conventional system) were in terms of local human health impact and eutrophication potential, despite large, outstanding uncertainties. Of the alternative options, the systems with on-site water reuse and energy recovery technologies had the least local human health impact; however, the cost of these options was highly variable and the energy consumption was comparable to on-site alternatives without water reuse or energy recovery, due to on-site reuse treatment. Future work should aim to reduce the uncertainty in the energy recovery process and explore the health risks associated with less costly, on-site water treatment options. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional Warming and Emerging Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Other Post-Soviet States from 1981 to 2011 and Projection by 2030

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Vladimir Kartashev

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We analyze through a climatic model the influence of regional warming on the geographical spreading and potential risk of infection of human dirofilariosis in Russia, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states from 1981 to 2011 and estimate the situation by 2030. The model correctly predicts the spatiotemporal location of 97.10% of 2154 clinical cases reported in the area during the studied period, identified by a retrospective review of the literature. There exists also a significant correlation between annual predicted Dirofilaria generations and calculated morbidity. The model states the progressive increase of 14.8% in the potential transmission area, up to latitude 64°N, and 14.7% in population exposure. By 2030 an increase of 18.5% in transmission area and 10.8% in population exposure is expected. These findings strongly suggest the influence of global warming in both geographical spreading and increase in the number of Dirofilaria generations. The results should alert about the epidemiological behavior of dirofilariosis and other mosquito-borne diseases in these and other countries with similar climatic characteristics.

Regional warming and emerging vector-borne zoonotic dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states from 1981 to 2011 and projection by 2030.

Science.gov (United States)

Kartashev, Vladimir; Afonin, Alexandr; González-Miguel, Javier; Sepúlveda, Rosa; Simón, Luis; Morchón, Rodrigo; Simón, Fernando

2014-01-01

We analyze through a climatic model the influence of regional warming on the geographical spreading and potential risk of infection of human dirofilariosis in Russia, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states from 1981 to 2011 and estimate the situation by 2030. The model correctly predicts the spatiotemporal location of 97.10% of 2154 clinical cases reported in the area during the studied period, identified by a retrospective review of the literature. There exists also a significant correlation between annual predicted Dirofilaria generations and calculated morbidity. The model states the progressive increase of 14.8% in the potential transmission area, up to latitude 64 °N, and 14.7% in population exposure. By 2030 an increase of 18.5% in transmission area and 10.8% in population exposure is expected. These findings strongly suggest the influence of global warming in both geographical spreading and increase in the number of Dirofilaria generations. The results should alert about the epidemiological behavior of dirofilariosis and other mosquito-borne diseases in these and other countries with similar climatic characteristics.

Competition magnifies the impact of a pesticide in a warming world by reducing heat tolerance and increasing autotomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Op de Beeck, Lin; Verheyen, Julie; Stoks, Robby

2018-02-01

There is increasing concern that standard laboratory toxicity tests may be misleading when assessing the impact of toxicants, because they lack ecological realism. Both warming and biotic interactions have been identified to magnify the effects of toxicants. Moreover, while biotic interactions may change the impact of toxicants, toxicants may also change the impact of biotic interactions. However, studies looking at the impact of biotic interactions on the toxicity of pesticides and vice versa under warming are very scarce. Therefore, we tested how warming (+4 °C), intraspecific competition (density treatment) and exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos, both in isolation and in combination, affected mortality, cannibalism, growth and heat tolerance of low- and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. Moreover, we addressed whether toxicant exposure, potentially in interaction with competition and warming, increased the frequency of autotomy, a widespread antipredator mechanism. Competition increased the toxicity of chlorpyrifos and made it become lethal. Cannibalism was not affected by chlorpyrifos but increased at high density and under warming. Chlorpyrifos reduced heat tolerance but only when competition was high. This is the first demonstration that a biotic interaction can be a major determinant of 'toxicant-induced climate change sensitivity'. Competition enhanced the impact of chlorpyrifos under warming for high-latitude larvae, leading to an increase in autotomy which reduces fitness in the long term. This points to a novel pathway how transient pesticide pulses may cause delayed effects on populations in a warming world. Our results highlight that the interplay between biotic interactions and toxicants have a strong relevance for ecological risk assessment in a warming polluted world. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary forces shaping genomic islands of population differentiation in humans

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Hofer Tamara

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Levels of differentiation among populations depend both on demographic and selective factors: genetic drift and local adaptation increase population differentiation, which is eroded by gene flow and balancing selection. We describe here the genomic distribution and the properties of genomic regions with unusually high and low levels of population differentiation in humans to assess the influence of selective and neutral processes on human genetic structure. Methods Individual SNPs of the Human Genome Diversity Panel (HGDP showing significantly high or low levels of population differentiation were detected under a hierarchical-island model (HIM. A Hidden Markov Model allowed us to detect genomic regions or islands of high or low population differentiation. Results Under the HIM, only 1.5% of all SNPs are significant at the 1% level, but their genomic spatial distribution is significantly non-random. We find evidence that local adaptation shaped high-differentiation islands, as they are enriched for non-synonymous SNPs and overlap with previously identified candidate regions for positive selection. Moreover there is a negative relationship between the size of islands and recombination rate, which is stronger for islands overlapping with genes. Gene ontology analysis supports the role of diet as a major selective pressure in those highly differentiated islands. Low-differentiation islands are also enriched for non-synonymous SNPs, and contain an overly high proportion of genes belonging to the 'Oncogenesis' biological process. Conclusions Even though selection seems to be acting in shaping islands of high population differentiation, neutral demographic processes might have promoted the appearance of some genomic islands since i as much as 20% of islands are in non-genic regions ii these non-genic islands are on average two times shorter than genic islands, suggesting a more rapid erosion by recombination, and iii most loci are

Strong delayed interactive effects of metal exposure and warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Debecker, Sara; Dinh, Khuong Van; Stoks, Robby

2017-01-01

’ ranges could lead to an important underestimation of the risks. We addressed all three mechanisms by studying effects of larval exposure to zinc and warming before, during, and after metamorphosis in Ischnura elegans damselflies from high- and lowlatitude populations. By integrating these mechanisms...... into a single study, we could identify two novel patterns. First, during exposure zinc did not affect survival, whereas it induced mild to moderate postexposure mortality in the larval stage and at metamorphosis, and very strongly reduced adult lifespan. This severe delayed effect across metamorphosis...... was especially remarkable in high-latitude animals, as they appeared almost insensitive to zinc during the larval stage. Second, the well-known synergism between metals and warming was manifested not only during the larval stage but also after metamorphosis, yet notably only in low-latitude damselflies...

Human Population Influence on the Planet

Science.gov (United States)

Pimentel, D.

2004-12-01

The continued expansion of the human population, now at 6.3 billion projected to reach 12 billion by 2050, is using, destroying, and polluting the very Earth's resources that support human life. Currently the World Health Organization reports that more than 3 billion people are malnourished - largest number ever. Contributing to the malnourishment problem is soil erosion that results in the loss of about 75 billion tons of soil from agriculture each year. More than 99% of all food for the world comes from the land - less than 1% from the oceans and other aquatic ecosystems. Yet agricultural cropland is being abandoned because of soil erosion and salinization and the rapid spread of human settlements. Water is essential for all life and agriculture is the major consumer accounting for more than 70% of freshwater used. Already water shortages are critical in the U.S. and worldwide. Thus far, abundant fossil fuels are supporting the expansion of agricultural productivity as well as industry and transport growth. Yet credible evidence suggests that the supplies of oil and natural gas especially are rapidly diminishing. The development of renewable energy is behind schedule and when developed will only supply only about half of current energy used. If we do not work towards a relative balance between human numbers and essential natural resources, humans will suffer. Human health, productivity and well being, now and for future generations, require the continued availability of our basic resources - soil, water, foods, and energy.

Biological effects of alpha radiation on a human population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorleifson, E.M.; Marro, L.; Tracy, B.L.; Wilkinson, D.; Segura, T.M.; Prud'homme-Lalonde, L.; Leach, K.; Ford, B.N.

2003-01-01

Full text: In the environment, natural and man-made sources of radioactive material can become integrated into the food chain. Polonium-210 is a significant source of radiation exposure to caribou and to northern human populations who are dependent on caribou for a major portion of their meat supply. Previous work has shown that humans consuming caribou meat containing measurable quantities of polonium-210 can incorporate a substantial fraction of the radionuclide (Thomas et. al.). Conventional chromosome aberration analysis of blood samples collected from 40 individuals who routinely consumed caribou meat was performed to measure genetic damage from the ingested radioactive material. At least 500 metaphase spreads were analysed for each of 39 individuals. Radiation-specific chromosomal aberrations such as dicentrics and rings were scored and their frequencies were compared to the range of aberrations observed in non-caribou consuming populations. This study was designed to address the possible impact of environmental polonium-210 on background radiation health effects in humans

Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins.

Science.gov (United States)

Eller, Elise; Hawks, John; Relethford, John H

2004-10-01

A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.

Long-term effects of ocean warming on vibrios

Science.gov (United States)

Pruzzo, C.; Pezzati, E.; Brettar, I.; Reid, P. C.; Colwell, R.; Höfle, M. G.; vezzulli, L.

2012-12-01

Vibrios are a major source of human disease, play an important role in the ecology and health of marine animals and are regarded as an abundant fraction of culturable bacteria of the ocean. There has been a considerable global effort to reduce the risk of Vibrio infections and yet in most countries both human and non-human illnesses associated with these bacteria are increasing. The cause of this increase is not known, but since vibrios are strongly thermodependant there is good reason to believe that global warming may have contributed. To investigate this possibility we examined historical samples from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) archive using advanced molecular analysis and pyrosequencing. For the first time we were able to recover environmental DNA from CPR samples that had been stored for up to ~50 years in a formalin-fixed format, which is suitable for molecular analyses of the associated prokaryotic community. To overcome the problem of DNA degradation due to the sample age and storage in formalin we develop an unbiased index of abundance for Vibrio quantification in CPR samples termed a 'relative Vibrio Abundance Index' (VAI). VAI is defined as the ratio of Vibrio spp. cells to total bacterial cells assessed by Real-Time PCR using genus-specific and universal primers, respectively, producing small amplicons of similar size (~100bp). We assessed VAI index on 55 samples (each representing 10 nautical miles tow equal to 3 m3 of filtered sewater) collected in August by the CPR survey in the North Sea from off the Rhine and Humber estuaries between 1961 to 2005 showing that the genus Vibrio has increased in prevalence in the last 44 years and that this increase is correlated significantly, during the same period, with warming sea surface temperature. In addition, by applying deep sequencing analysis of a subset of these samples we provide evidence that bacteria belonging to the genus Vibrio, including the human pathogen V. cholerae, not only increased

Simulated Warming Differentially Affects the Growth and Competitive Ability of Centaurea maculosa Populations from Home and Introduced Ranges

OpenAIRE

He, Wei-Ming; Li, Jing-Ji; Peng, Pei-Hao

2012-01-01

Climate warming may drive invasions by exotic plants, thereby raising concerns over the risks of invasive plants. However, little is known about how climate warming influences the growth and competitive ability of exotic plants from their home and introduced ranges. We conducted a common garden experiment with an invasive plant Centaurea maculosa and a native plant Poa pratensis, in which a mixture of sand and vermiculite was used as a neutral medium, and contrasted the total biomass, competi...

Metabolic heat production by human and animal populations in cities

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Iain D.; Kennedy, Chris A.

2017-07-01

Anthropogenic heating from building energy use, vehicle fuel consumption, and human metabolism is a key term in the urban energy budget equation. Heating from human metabolism, however, is often excluded from urban energy budgets because it is widely observed to be negligible. Few reports for low-latitude cities are available to support this observation, and no reports exist on the contribution of domestic animals to urban heat budgets. To provide a more comprehensive view of metabolic heating in cities, we quantified all terms of the anthropogenic heat budget at metropolitan scale for the world's 26 largest cities, using a top-down statistical approach. Results show that metabolic heat release from human populations in mid-latitude cities (e.g. London, Tokyo, New York) accounts for 4-8% of annual anthropogenic heating, compared to 10-45% in high-density tropical cities (e.g. Cairo, Dhaka, Kolkata). Heat release from animal populations amounts to <1% of anthropogenic heating in all cities. Heat flux density from human and animal metabolism combined is highest in Mumbai—the world's most densely populated megacity—at 6.5 W m-2, surpassing heat production by electricity use in buildings (5.8 W m-2) and fuel combustion in vehicles (3.9 W m-2). These findings, along with recent output from global climate models, suggest that in the world's largest and most crowded cities, heat emissions from human metabolism alone can force measurable change in mean annual temperature at regional scale.

Metabolic heat production by human and animal populations in cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Iain D; Kennedy, Chris A

2017-07-01

Anthropogenic heating from building energy use, vehicle fuel consumption, and human metabolism is a key term in the urban energy budget equation. Heating from human metabolism, however, is often excluded from urban energy budgets because it is widely observed to be negligible. Few reports for low-latitude cities are available to support this observation, and no reports exist on the contribution of domestic animals to urban heat budgets. To provide a more comprehensive view of metabolic heating in cities, we quantified all terms of the anthropogenic heat budget at metropolitan scale for the world's 26 largest cities, using a top-down statistical approach. Results show that metabolic heat release from human populations in mid-latitude cities (e.g. London, Tokyo, New York) accounts for 4-8% of annual anthropogenic heating, compared to 10-45% in high-density tropical cities (e.g. Cairo, Dhaka, Kolkata). Heat release from animal populations amounts to heating in all cities. Heat flux density from human and animal metabolism combined is highest in Mumbai-the world's most densely populated megacity-at 6.5 W m -2 , surpassing heat production by electricity use in buildings (5.8 W m -2 ) and fuel combustion in vehicles (3.9 W m -2 ). These findings, along with recent output from global climate models, suggest that in the world's largest and most crowded cities, heat emissions from human metabolism alone can force measurable change in mean annual temperature at regional scale.

Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

Global Warming: Claims, Science, and Consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Gould, Laurence I.

2007-04-01

Widespread (and seemingly dominant) claims about the dire consequences of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) have been propagated by both scientists and politicians and have been prominently featured by much of the mass media. This talk will examine some of those claims --- such as those made in the popular pro-AGW film, An Inconvenient Truth^1 --- from the perspectives of science^2 and scientific methodology^3. Some of the issues considered will be: What are the major ``greenhouse gases''? To what extent is global warming a result of human influences through an increase of ``greenhouse gases''? Is an increase in (1) global temperature and (2) carbon dioxide bad/good? What are some meanings that can be given to the term ``consensus'' in science? What are the estimated financial and other costs of governments implementing the Kyoto accords? Links to readings and videos will be given at the conclusion of the talk. ^1Gore, Al, An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It -- (Rodale Press, May, 2006). ^2Marlo Lewis, ``A Skeptic's Guide to An Inconvenient Truth'' http://www.cei.org/pages/aitresponse-book.cfm ^3Aaron Wildavsky, But Is It True? A Citizen's Guide to Environmental Health and Safety Issues (Harvard University Press, 1995), Intro. and Chap. 11. To cite this abstract, use the following reference: http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2007.NES07.C1.6

Military Implications of Global Warming.

Science.gov (United States)

1999-05-20

U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

Population growth of Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana predates human agricultural activity

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Cox Murray P

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Human activities, such as agriculture, hunting, and habitat modification, exert a significant effect on native species. Although many species have suffered population declines, increased population fragmentation, or even extinction in connection with these human impacts, others seem to have benefitted from human modification of their habitat. Here we examine whether population growth in an insectivorous bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana can be attributed to the widespread expansion of agriculture in North America following European settlement. Colonies of T. b. mexicana are extremely large (~106 individuals and, in the modern era, major agricultural insect pests form an important component of their food resource. It is thus hypothesized that the growth of these insectivorous bat populations was coupled to the expansion of agricultural land use in North America over the last few centuries. Results We sequenced one haploid and one autosomal locus to determine the rate and time of onset of population growth in T. b. mexicana. Using an approximate Maximum Likelihood method, we have determined that T. b. mexicana populations began to grow ~220 kya from a relatively small ancestral effective population size before reaching the large effective population size observed today. Conclusions Our analyses reject the hypothesis that T. b. mexicana populations grew in connection with the expansion of human agriculture in North America, and instead suggest that this growth commenced long before the arrival of humans. As T. brasiliensis is a subtropical species, we hypothesize that the observed signals of population growth may instead reflect range expansions of ancestral bat populations from southern glacial refugia during the tail end of the Pleistocene.

Warm measurements of CBA superconducting magnets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engelmann, R.; Herrera, J.; Kahn, S.; Kirk, H.; Willen, E.; Yamin, P.

1983-01-01

We present results on magnetic field measurements of CBA dipole magnets in the warm (normal conductor) and cryogenic (superconducting) states. We apply two methods for the warm measurements, a dc and ac method. We find a good correlation between warm and cryogenic measurements which lends itself to a reliable diagnosis of magnet field errors using warm measurements early in the magnet assembly process. We further find good agreement between the two warm measurement methods, both done at low currents

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

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S. Freire

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

2000-07-14

The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

Real-time estimation of small-area populations with human biomarkers in sewage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daughton, Christian G.

2012-01-01

A new approach is conceptualized for measuring small-area human populations by using biomarkers in sewage. The basis for the concept (SCIM: Sewage Chemical-Information Mining) is supported by a comprehensive examination and synthesis of data published across several disciplines, including medicine, microbiology, clinical chemistry, and environmental science. Accurate measures of human populations are fundamental to numerous disciplines, including economics, marketing, politics, sociology, public health and safety (e.g., disease management; assessment of natural hazards; disaster prevention and response), quality of life, and the environment. Knowing the size, distribution, and flow of a small-area (local) population facilitates understanding the numerous and complex linkages and interactions between humans and the environment. Examples include material-flow (substance-flow) analysis, determining the magnitude of per capita contribution of pollutant loadings to watersheds, or forecasting future impacts of local populations on the environment or a population's demands on resources. While no definitive approach exists for measuring small-area populations, census-taking is a long-established convention. No approach exists, however, for gauging small-area populations in real-time, as none is able to capture population dynamics, which involve transient changes (e.g., daily influx and efflux) and lasting changes (e.g., births, deaths, change in residence). Accurate measurement of small-area populations in real time has never been possible but is essential for facilitating the design of more sustainable communities. Real-time measurement would provide communities the capability of testing what-if scenarios in design and policy decisions. After evaluation of a range of biomarkers (including the nitrogenous waste product creatinine, which has been long used in clinical chemistry as a parameter to normalize the concentrations of other urinary excretion products to account for

Understanding the challenges of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, P.

2003-01-01

The evolution of the threat of global warming and the chronology of the last half century of efforts to prevent it from overwhelming humanity is chronicled. It was in the 1970s when it was first realized that the cumulative total of atmospheric carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning had been steadily rising from the pre-industrial 280 ppmv (parts per million by volume) to 325 ppmv, approximately parallel with the rise of industrialization. Nevertheless, the first attempt at a global accord to reduce emissions was not made until 1992, when the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit tried, but miserably failed to reach agreement, having been prevented from achieving anything of substance by a loose-knit group of nations and commercial interests. Binding agreements were finally reached at the next scheduled international meeting in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997. There is a detailed discussion of the Kyoto Protocols, the measures that Annex One nations such as Canada have to do to achieve the six per cent reductions targets below 1990 levels of emissions by 2010, and estimates of the costs involved. These discussions of proposed actions are balanced by a display of examples of the the growing volume of arguments advanced by opponents who not only disagree about what can be done to reduce emissions, but that there is anything that needs to be done at all. Central to their arguments is the denial that human activities are responsible for global warming, disregarding the overwhelming evidence by 3000+ leading scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that most of the global warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. The rest of the article details what can and needs to be done to reverse the cumulative impact of greenhouse gas emissions, how we can produce the energy we need at the lowest environmental cost, and the types of energy (solar, wind, biomass, natural gas) that result in the smallest GHG emissions. Familiar arguments are recited to

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sejas, Sergio A; Albert, Oriene S; Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi

2014-01-01

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heat flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Therefore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea. (letter)

The Impact of Evolutionary Driving Forces on Human Complex Diseases: A Population Genetics Approach

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Amr T. M. Saeb

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Investigating the molecular evolution of human genome has paved the way to understand genetic adaptation of humans to the environmental changes and corresponding complex diseases. In this review, we discussed the historical origin of genetic diversity among human populations, the evolutionary driving forces that can affect genetic diversity among populations, and the effects of human movement into new environments and gene flow on population genetic diversity. Furthermore, we presented the role of natural selection on genetic diversity and complex diseases. Then we reviewed the disadvantageous consequences of historical selection events in modern time and their relation to the development of complex diseases. In addition, we discussed the effect of consanguinity on the incidence of complex diseases in human populations. Finally, we presented the latest information about the role of ancient genes acquired from interbreeding with ancient hominids in the development of complex diseases.

Risk factors for human-directed canine aggression in a referral level clinical population.

Science.gov (United States)

Lord, M; Casey, R A; Loftus, B A; Blackwell, E J

2017-07-07

Risk factors for human-directed aggression were investigated using retrospective analysis of data from a referral-level clinical behaviour population in the UK. A sample of 200 cases involving human-directed canine aggression and 200 control cases involving no instance of human-directed aggression were selected at random from a population of 746 cases. The final model suggested that clinical cases with human-directed aggression were significantly younger than those presenting with other undesired behaviours (P=0.008) and that male dogs were 1.4 times more likely to be aggressive towards human beings than female dogs (P=0.019). Dogs were 1.7 times more likely to be aggressive towards people if they had attended more than five puppy classes than if they had never attended puppy class (P=0.015) and that dogs were 2.8 times more likely to be aggressive towards human beings if there was another dog between 0 months and 24 months of age in the home (P=0.004). These factors only account for 7 per cent to 10 per cent of the variance between the human-directed aggression population and the control population, but factors such as attendance at puppy classes and numbers of dogs in the household suggest the need for longitudinal studies to investigate temporal relationships.

Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

2018-02-01

To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew; Veblen, Thomas T.; Smith, Jeremy M.; Moyes, Andrew B.; Kueppers, Lara M.

2018-01-01

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had greater recruitment to their third year (by 323%) than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating reduced (by 49%) recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering alleviated some of the negative effects of heating (108% increase in watered plots). Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid post-fire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.

Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Meehan, Casey R.

Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz and Thompson, 1990) serves as the theoretical framework for this qualitative analysis in which I ask the question how do U.S. secondary school curricula and teachers deal with the disparity between the overwhelming scientific consensus and the lay-public's skepticism regarding global warming? I analyzed nine widely used social studies and science textbooks, eight sets of supplemental materials about global warming produced by a range of not-for-profit and governmental organizations, and interviewed fourteen high school teachers who had experience teaching formal lessons about global warming in their content area. Findings suggest: 1) the range of global warming content within social studies and science textbooks and supplemental curricula reflects the spectrum of conceptualizations found among members of the U.S. public; 2) global warming curricula communicate only a narrow range of strategies for dealing with global warming and its associated threats; and 3) social studies and science teachers report taking a range of stances about global warming in their classroom, but sometimes the stance they put forth to their students does not align with their personal beliefs about global warming. The findings pose a troubling conundrum. Some of the global warming curricula treat the cause of global warming--a question that is not scientifically controversial--as a question with multiple and competing "right" answers. At the same time, much of curricula position how we should address global warming--a question that is legitimately controversial--as a question with one correct answer despite there being many reasonable responses

G-warm inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, Ramón

2017-05-01

A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition RR+3gHdot phi. Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.

Impact and prevention on global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Heon Ryeol

2003-11-01

This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.

Postural stability is altered by the stimulation of pain but not warm receptors in humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Blouin, Jean-Sébastien; Corbeil, Philippe; Teasdale, Normand

2003-10-17

It is now recognized that large diameter myelinated afferents provide the primary source of lower limb proprioceptive information for maintaining an upright standing position. Small diameter afferents transmitting noxious stimuli, however, can also influence motor behaviors. Despite the possible influence of pain on motor behaviors, the effects of pain on the postural control system have not been well documented. Two cutaneous heat stimulations (experiment 1: non-noxious 40 degrees C; experiment 2: noxious 45 degrees C) were applied bilaterally on the calves of the subject with two thermal grills to stimulate A delta and C warm receptors and nociceptors in order to examine their effects on postural stability. The non-noxious stimulation induced a gentle sensation of warmth and the noxious stimulation induced a perception of heat pain (visual analogue scores of 0 and 46 mm, respectively). For both experiments, ten healthy young adults were tested with and without heat stimulations of the lower limbs while standing upright on a force platform with eyes open, eyes closed and eyes closed with tendon co-vibration of tibialis anterior and triceps surae muscles. The center of pressure displacements were analyzed to examine how both stimulations affected the regulation of quiet standing and if the effects were exacerbated when vision was removed or ankle proprioception perturbed. The stimulation of the warm receptors (40 degrees C) did not induce any postural deterioration. With pain (45 degrees C), subjects showed a significant increase in standard deviation, range and mean velocity of postural oscillations as well as standard deviation of the center of pressure velocity. The effects of heat pain were exacerbated when subjects had both their eyes closed and ankle tendons vibrated (increased standard deviation of the center of pressure velocity and mean velocity of the center of pressure). A non-noxious stimulation (40 degrees C) of the small diameter afferents is not a

Postural stability is altered by the stimulation of pain but not warm receptors in humans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Corbeil Philippe

2003-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is now recognized that large diameter myelinated afferents provide the primary source of lower limb proprioceptive information for maintaining an upright standing position. Small diameter afferents transmitting noxious stimuli, however, can also influence motor behaviors. Despite the possible influence of pain on motor behaviors, the effects of pain on the postural control system have not been well documented. Methods Two cutaneous heat stimulations (experiment 1: non-noxious 40 degrees C; experiment 2: noxious 45 degrees C were applied bilaterally on the calves of the subject with two thermal grills to stimulate A delta and C warm receptors and nociceptors in order to examine their effects on postural stability. The non-noxious stimulation induced a gentle sensation of warmth and the noxious stimulation induced a perception of heat pain (visual analogue scores of 0 and 46 mm, respectively. For both experiments, ten healthy young adults were tested with and without heat stimulations of the lower limbs while standing upright on a force platform with eyes open, eyes closed and eyes closed with tendon co-vibration of tibialis anterior and triceps surae muscles. The center of pressure displacements were analyzed to examine how both stimulations affected the regulation of quiet standing and if the effects were exacerbated when vision was removed or ankle proprioception perturbed. Results The stimulation of the warm receptors (40 degrees C did not induce any postural deterioration. With pain (45 degrees C, subjects showed a significant increase in standard deviation, range and mean velocity of postural oscillations as well as standard deviation of the center of pressure velocity. The effects of heat pain were exacerbated when subjects had both their eyes closed and ankle tendons vibrated (increased standard deviation of the center of pressure velocity and mean velocity of the center of pressure. Conclusions A non

Towards Investigating Global Warming Impact on Human Health Using Derivatives of Photoplethysmogram Signals

Science.gov (United States)

Elgendi, Mohamed; Norton, Ian; Brearley, Matt; Fletcher, Richard R.; Abbott, Derek; Lovell, Nigel H.; Schuurmans, Dale

2015-01-01

Recent clinical studies show that the contour of the photoplethysmogram (PPG) wave contains valuable information for characterizing cardiovascular activity. However, analyzing the PPG wave contour is difficult; therefore, researchers have applied first or higher order derivatives to emphasize and conveniently quantify subtle changes in the filtered PPG contour. Our hypothesis is that analyzing the whole PPG recording rather than each PPG wave contour or on a beat-by-beat basis can detect heat-stressed subjects and that, consequently, we will be able to investigate the impact of global warming on human health. Here, we explore the most suitable derivative order for heat stress assessment based on the energy and entropy of the whole PPG recording. The results of our study indicate that the use of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal shows promising results in detecting heat stress using 20-second recordings, with an overall accuracy of 71.6%. Moreover, the combination of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal with the root mean square of successive differences, or RMSSD (a traditional heart rate variability index of heat stress), improved the detection of heat stress to 88.9% accuracy. PMID:26473907

Towards Investigating Global Warming Impact on Human Health Using Derivatives of Photoplethysmogram Signals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed Elgendi

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Recent clinical studies show that the contour of the photoplethysmogram (PPG wave contains valuable information for characterizing cardiovascular activity. However, analyzing the PPG wave contour is difficult; therefore, researchers have applied first or higher order derivatives to emphasize and conveniently quantify subtle changes in the filtered PPG contour. Our hypothesis is that analyzing the whole PPG recording rather than each PPG wave contour or on a beat-by-beat basis can detect heat-stressed subjects and that, consequently, we will be able to investigate the impact of global warming on human health. Here, we explore the most suitable derivative order for heat stress assessment based on the energy and entropy of the whole PPG recording. The results of our study indicate that the use of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal shows promising results in detecting heat stress using 20-second recordings, with an overall accuracy of 71.6%. Moreover, the combination of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal with the root mean square of successive differences, or RMSSD (a traditional heart rate variability index of heat stress, improved the detection of heat stress to 88.9% accuracy.

Towards Investigating Global Warming Impact on Human Health Using Derivatives of Photoplethysmogram Signals.

Science.gov (United States)

Elgendi, Mohamed; Norton, Ian; Brearley, Matt; Fletcher, Richard R; Abbott, Derek; Lovell, Nigel H; Schuurmans, Dale

2015-10-14

Recent clinical studies show that the contour of the photoplethysmogram (PPG) wave contains valuable information for characterizing cardiovascular activity. However, analyzing the PPG wave contour is difficult; therefore, researchers have applied first or higher order derivatives to emphasize and conveniently quantify subtle changes in the filtered PPG contour. Our hypothesis is that analyzing the whole PPG recording rather than each PPG wave contour or on a beat-by-beat basis can detect heat-stressed subjects and that, consequently, we will be able to investigate the impact of global warming on human health. Here, we explore the most suitable derivative order for heat stress assessment based on the energy and entropy of the whole PPG recording. The results of our study indicate that the use Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 7 12777 of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal shows promising results in detecting heat stress using 20-second recordings, with an overall accuracy of 71.6%. Moreover, the combination of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal with the root mean square of successive differences, or RMSSD (a traditional heart rate variability index of heat stress), improved the detection of heat stress to 88.9% accuracy.

Epidemiology of human leukocyte antigens among omani population.

Science.gov (United States)

Al Salmi, Issa; Metry, Abdul Massiah; Al Ismaili, Faisal; Hola, Alan; Shaheen, Faissal; Fakhoury, Hana; Hannawi, Suad

2017-01-01

Oman is located on the Southeastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, and its population has high levels of consanguinity. Human leukocytic antigen (HLA) typing analysis in human population holds unexploited potential for elucidating the genetic causes of human disease and possibly leads to personalized medicine. This is a retrospective, descriptive study evaluating HLA frequencies of Omani individuals who underwent workup for kidney transplantation at the Royal Hospital (RH) from 2005 to 2016. Data on 870 subjects were collected from the Oman kidney transplant registry at RH as well from electronic medical record system. The mean age (standard deviation) years for the cohort were 33.2 (13.0). Males constituted 56.3% (490) while females constituted 43.7% (380). Seven HLA-A alleles accounted for more than 70% of the total alleles. Of which, HLA-A2 contributed the highest frequency (24%), followed by HLA A11 (9.4%), and A32 (8.1%). Ten alleles accounted for 70% of HLA-B alleles. Of which, HLA-B51 was the most common (18.9%), followed by HLA-B-35 (13.6%), and HLA-B8 (7.9%). Seven HLA-DRB1 alleles accounted for more than 70% of the total HLA DRB1 alleles, of which HLA- DRB1*16 contributed the highest frequency (29.56%). This was followed by HLA-DRB1*03 (14.57%) and HLA-DRB1*11 (9.48%). While three alleles accounted for more than 75% of the total HLA DQB1alleles. Of which, HLA-DQB1*05 contributed the highest frequency (37.56%). This was followed by allele HLA-DQB1*02 (26.48%) and HLA-DQB1*03 (17.18%). This study showed considerable heterogeneity in both HLA Class I and Class II antigens, which reflects admixture of our population with rest of old world countries. Despite the high levels of consanguinity, this population is genetically highly heterogeneous. These findings may be useful for transplantation programs, noncommunicable diseases, epidemiology of HLA linked diseases, pharmacogenomics, and anthropology.

Epidemiology of human leukocyte antigens among omani population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Issa Al Salmi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Oman is located on the Southeastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, and its population has high levels of consanguinity. Human leukocytic antigen (HLA typing analysis in human population holds unexploited potential for elucidating the genetic causes of human disease and possibly leads to personalized medicine. This is a retrospective, descriptive study evaluating HLA frequencies of Omani individuals who underwent workup for kidney transplantation at the Royal Hospital (RH from 2005 to 2016. Data on 870 subjects were collected from the Oman kidney transplant registry at RH as well from electronic medical record system. The mean age (standard deviation years for the cohort were 33.2 (13.0. Males constituted 56.3% (490 while females constituted 43.7% (380. Seven HLA-A alleles accounted for more than 70% of the total alleles. Of which, HLA-A2 contributed the highest frequency (24%, followed by HLA A11 (9.4%, and A32 (8.1%. Ten alleles accounted for 70% of HLA-B alleles. Of which, HLA-B51 was the most common (18.9%, followed by HLA-B-35 (13.6%, and HLA-B8 (7.9%. Seven HLA-DRB1 alleles accounted for more than 70% of the total HLA DRB1 alleles, of which HLA- DRB1*16 contributed the highest frequency (29.56%. This was followed by HLA-DRB1*03 (14.57% and HLA-DRB1*11 (9.48%. While three alleles accounted for more than 75% of the total HLA DQB1alleles. Of which, HLA-DQB1*05 contributed the highest frequency (37.56%. This was followed by allele HLA-DQB1*02 (26.48% and HLA-DQB1*03 (17.18%. This study showed considerable heterogeneity in both HLA Class I and Class II antigens, which reflects admixture of our population with rest of old world countries. Despite the high levels of consanguinity, this population is genetically highly heterogeneous. These findings may be useful for transplantation programs, noncommunicable diseases, epidemiology of HLA linked diseases, pharmacogenomics, and anthropology.

Long range global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

1995-01-01

This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth's steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth's temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic

Warm Dry Weather Conditions Cause of 2016 Fort McMurray Wild Forest Fire and Associated Air Quality

Science.gov (United States)

de Azevedo, S. C.; Singh, R. P.; da Silva, E. A., Sr.

2016-12-01

The climate change is evident from the increasing temperature around the world, day to day life and increasing frequency of natural hazards. The warm and dry conditions are the cause of frequent forest fires around the globe. Forest fires severely affect the air quality and human health. Multi sensor satellites and dense network of ground stations provide information about vegetation health, meteorological, air quality and atmospheric parameters. We have carried out detailed analysis of satellite and ground data of wild forest fire that occurred in May 2016 in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. This wild forest fire destroyed 10 per cent of Fort McMurray's housing and forced more than 90,000 people to evacuate the surrounding areas. Our results show that the warm and dry conditions with low rainfall were the cause of Fort McMurray wild fire. The air quality parameters (particulate matter, CO, ozone, NO2, methane) and greenhouse gases measured from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite show enhanced levels soon after the forest fire. The emissions from the forest fire affected health of population living in surrounding areas up to 300 km radius.

Human Population Problems

Science.gov (United States)

Emmel, Thomas C.; Sligh, Michael M.

1970-01-01

Asserts that overpopulation is the most pressing world problem. Topics discussed include population control in primitive societies, population growth and control in modern societies, methods of motivational population control, consequences of no population control, and mass famines during the 1970's in underdeveloped countries. Cities 33…

Global warming enhances sulphide stress in a key seagrass species (NW Mediterranean).

Science.gov (United States)

García, Rosa; Holmer, Marianne; Duarte, Carlos M; Marbà, Núria

2013-12-01

The build-up of sulphide concentrations in sediments, resulting from high inputs of organic matter and the mineralization through sulphate reduction, can be lethal to the benthos. Sulphate reduction is temperature dependent, thus global warming may contribute to even higher sulphide concentrations and benthos mortality. The seagrass Posidonia oceanica is very sensitive to sulphide stress. Hence, if concentrations build up with global warming, this key Mediterranean species could be seriously endangered. An 8-year monitoring of daily seawater temperature, the sulphur isotopic signatures of water (δ(34)S(water)), sediment (δ(34)SCRS ) and P. oceanica leaf tissue (δ(34)S(leaves)), along with total sulphur in leaves (TS(leaves)) and annual net population growth along the coast of the Balearic archipelago (Western Mediterranean) allowed us to determine if warming triggers P. oceanica sulphide stress and constrains seagrass survival. From the isotopic S signatures, we estimated sulphide intrusion into the leaves (F(sulphide)) and sulphur incorporation into the leaves from sedimentary sulphides (SS(leaves)). We observed lower δ(34)S(leaves), higher F(sulphide) and SS(leaves) coinciding with a 6-year period when two heat waves were recorded. Warming triggered sulphide stress as evidenced by the negative temperature dependence of δ(34)S(leaves) and the positive one of F(sulphide), TS(leaves) and SS(leaves). Lower P. oceanica net population growth rates were directly related to higher contents of TS(leaves). At equivalent annual maximum sea surface water temperature (SST(max)), deep meadows were less affected by sulphide intrusion than shallow ones. Thus, water depth acts as a protecting mechanism against sulphide intrusion. However, water depth would be insufficient to buffer seagrass sulphide stress triggered by Mediterranean seawater summer temperatures projected for the end of the 21st century even under scenarios of moderate greenhouse gas emissions, A1B

When will we reach 1.5 of global warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, D.

2017-12-01

Recent global temperature trends indicate that we may be rapidly approaching 1.5 degrees of global warming. However, rigorous estimates of when this target will be breached are rare, and are highly sensitive to small errors in observed and model-simulated historical warming, as well as widely-varying estimates of the allowable emissions for 1.5°C. Here, I present a proposed method to estimate the time remaining to 1.5°C using a new estimate of human-attributable warming, updated CO2 emissions trends, and the latest estimates of the 1.5°C carbon budget. The resulting calculation suggests that a continuation of recent CO2 emission trends would take us past 1.5°C in 2033, a little less than 16 years from now. Uncertainties in this calculation remain large, reflecting both fundamental scientific uncertainties associated with the climate response to emissions, as well as uncertainties associated with human mitigation decisions and their effect on future CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is nevertheless important to provide a robust and widely-accepted best estimate of the time remaining before we breach the climate targets that have been adopted in the Paris climate agreement, so as to clearly communicate our scientific understanding to policy makers and the general public. To this end, in an effort to visualize and track our progress towards these target, we have develop an online and projectable climate clock, which shows a real-time countdown of the time remaining to 1.5 and 2°C of global warming (see www.climateclock.net). This clock will be updated annually in light of the most recent emissions and global temperature data, and accounting for improved estimates of the remaining carbon budget associated with these climate targets. As countries around the world move forward with climate mitigation efforts, this climate clock will be able to clearly mark our progress towards the objective of adding time to the countdown so as to ultimately

Warm-up and performance in competitive swimming.

Science.gov (United States)

Neiva, Henrique P; Marques, Mário C; Barbosa, Tiago M; Izquierdo, Mikel; Marinho, Daniel A

2014-03-01

Warm-up before physical activity is commonly accepted to be fundamental, and any priming practices are usually thought to optimize performance. However, specifically in swimming, studies on the effects of warm-up are scarce, which may be due to the swimming pool environment, which has a high temperature and humidity, and to the complexity of warm-up procedures. The purpose of this study is to review and summarize the different studies on how warming up affects swimming performance, and to develop recommendations for improving the efficiency of warm-up before competition. Most of the main proposed effects of warm-up, such as elevated core and muscular temperatures, increased blood flow and oxygen delivery to muscle cells and higher efficiency of muscle contractions, support the hypothesis that warm-up enhances performance. However, while many researchers have reported improvements in performance after warm-up, others have found no benefits to warm-up. This lack of consensus emphasizes the need to evaluate the real effects of warm-up and optimize its design. Little is known about the effectiveness of warm-up in competitive swimming, and the variety of warm-up methods and swimming events studied makes it difficult to compare the published conclusions about the role of warm-up in swimming. Recent findings have shown that warm-up has a positive effect on the swimmer's performance, especially for distances greater than 200 m. We recommend that swimmers warm-up for a relatively moderate distance (between 1,000 and 1,500 m) with a proper intensity (a brief approach to race pace velocity) and recovery time sufficient to prevent the early onset of fatigue and to allow the restoration of energy reserves (8-20 min).

Small mammal use of native warm-season and non-native cool-season grass forage fields

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan L Klimstra,; Christopher E Moorman,; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Craig A Harper,

2015-01-01

Recent emphasis has been put on establishing native warm-season grasses for forage production because it is thought native warm-season grasses provide higher quality wildlife habitat than do non-native cool-season grasses. However, it is not clear whether native warm-season grass fields provide better resources for small mammals than currently are available in non-native cool-season grass forage production fields. We developed a hierarchical spatially explicit capture-recapture model to compare abundance of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus), white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), and house mice (Mus musculus) among 4 hayed non-native cool-season grass fields, 4 hayed native warm-season grass fields, and 4 native warm-season grass-forb ("wildlife") fields managed for wildlife during 2 summer trapping periods in 2009 and 2010 of the western piedmont of North Carolina, USA. Cotton rat abundance estimates were greater in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields and greater in native warm-season grass fields than in non-native cool-season grass fields. Abundances of white-footed mouse and house mouse populations were lower in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields, but the abundances were not different between the native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields. Lack of cover following haying in non-native cool-season grass and native warm-season grass fields likely was the key factor limiting small mammal abundance, especially cotton rats, in forage fields. Retention of vegetation structure in managed forage production systems, either by alternately resting cool-season and warm-season grass forage fields or by leaving unharvested field borders, should provide refugia for small mammals during haying events.

Recent warming of lake Kivu.

Science.gov (United States)

Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

2014-01-01

Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

Recent warming of lake Kivu.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergei Katsev

Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

The Role of Information Professionals in Reducing the Effects of Global Warming through Knowledge Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lect. Ph. D. Priti Jain

2009-05-01

Full Text Available As a result of global environmental change, global warming is the greatest environmental challenge in the 21st century. It could lead to the ultimate end of existence of earth and man. Potential catastrophic effects on the environment and for human life are one of the biggest concerns and most widely discussed issues in the world. This paper will explore how Information Professionals can build knowledge management related to global warming and thus make their contribution towards a sustainable environment. With a brief discussion of causes, effects, solutions and challenges related to global warming, the conclusion suggests a way forward for librarians and information professionals.

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Real-time estimation of small-area populations with human biomarkers in sewage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daughton, Christian G., E-mail: daughton.christian@epa.gov

2012-01-01

A new approach is conceptualized for measuring small-area human populations by using biomarkers in sewage. The basis for the concept (SCIM: Sewage Chemical-Information Mining) is supported by a comprehensive examination and synthesis of data published across several disciplines, including medicine, microbiology, clinical chemistry, and environmental science. Accurate measures of human populations are fundamental to numerous disciplines, including economics, marketing, politics, sociology, public health and safety (e.g., disease management; assessment of natural hazards; disaster prevention and response), quality of life, and the environment. Knowing the size, distribution, and flow of a small-area (local) population facilitates understanding the numerous and complex linkages and interactions between humans and the environment. Examples include material-flow (substance-flow) analysis, determining the magnitude of per capita contribution of pollutant loadings to watersheds, or forecasting future impacts of local populations on the environment or a population's demands on resources. While no definitive approach exists for measuring small-area populations, census-taking is a long-established convention. No approach exists, however, for gauging small-area populations in real-time, as none is able to capture population dynamics, which involve transient changes (e.g., daily influx and efflux) and lasting changes (e.g., births, deaths, change in residence). Accurate measurement of small-area populations in real time has never been possible but is essential for facilitating the design of more sustainable communities. Real-time measurement would provide communities the capability of testing what-if scenarios in design and policy decisions. After evaluation of a range of biomarkers (including the nitrogenous waste product creatinine, which has been long used in clinical chemistry as a parameter to normalize the concentrations of other urinary excretion products to

Global warming and the possible globalization of vector-borne diseases: a call for increased awareness and action.

Science.gov (United States)

Balogun, Emmanuel O; Nok, Andrew J; Kita, Kiyoshi

2016-01-01

Human activities such as burning of fossil fuels play a role in upsetting a previously more balanced and harmonious ecosystem. Climate change-a significant variation in the usual pattern of Earth's average weather conditions is a product of this ecosystem imbalance, and the rise in the Earth's average temperature (global warming) is a prominent evidence. There is a correlation between global warming and the ease of transmission of infectious diseases. Therefore, with global health in focus, we herein opine a stepping-up of research activities regarding global warming and infectious diseases globally.

Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

MacLean, Heidi J.; Penick, Clint A.; Dunn, Robert R.

2017-01-01

The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness...... outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal...... performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3–5 °C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants...

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Nyenzi

2006-01-01

Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

Human Population Decline in North America during the Younger Dryas

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, D. G.; Goodyear, A. C.; Stafford, T. W., Jr.; Kennett, J.; West, A.

2009-12-01

There is ongoing debate about a possible human population decline or contraction at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) at 12.9 ka. We used two methods to test whether the YD affected human population levels: (1) frequency analyses of Paleoindian projectile points, and (2) summed probability analyses of radiocarbon (14C) dates. The results suggest that a significant decline or reorganization of human populations occurred at 12.9 ka, continued through the initial centuries of the YD chronozone, then rebounded by the end of the YD. FREQUENCY ANALYSES: This method employed projectile point data from the Paleoindian Database of the Americas (PIDBA, http://pidba.utk.edu). We tallied diagnostic projectile points and obtained larger totals for Clovis points than for immediately post-Clovis points, which share an instrument-assisted fluting technique, typically using pressure or indirect percussion. Gainey, Vail, Debert, Redstone, and Cumberland point-styles utilized this method and are comparable to the Folsom style. For the SE U.S., the ratio of Clovis points (n=1993) to post-Clovis points (n=947) reveals a point decline of 52%. For the Great Plains, a comparison of Clovis and fluted points (n=4020) to Folsom points (n=2527) shows a point decline of 37%, which may translate into a population contraction of similar magnitude. In addition, eight major Clovis lithic quarry sites in the SE U.S. exhibit little to no evidence for immediate post-Clovis occupations, implying a major population decline. SUMMED PROBABILITIES: This method involved calibrating relevant 14C dates and combining the probabilities, after which major peaks and troughs in the trends are assumed to reflect changes in human demographics. Using 14C dates from Buchanan et al. (2008), we analyzed multiple regions, including the Southeast and Great Plains. Contrary to Buchanan et al., we found an abrupt, statistically significant decline at 12.9 ka, followed 200 to 900 years later by a rebound in the number of

Common Warm Dust Temperatures Around Main Sequence Stars

Science.gov (United States)

Morales, Farisa; Rieke, George; Werner, Michael; Stapelfeldt, Karl; Bryden, Geoffrey; Su, Kate

2011-01-01

We compare the properties of warm dust emission from a sample of main-sequence A-type stars (B8-A7) to those of dust around solar-type stars (F5-KO) with similar Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Spectrograph/MIPS data and similar ages. Both samples include stars with sources with infrared spectral energy distributions that show evidence of multiple components. Over the range of stellar types considered, we obtain nearly the same characteristic dust temperatures (∼ 190 K and ∼60 K for the inner and outer dust components, respectively)-slightly above the ice evaporation temperature for the inner belts. The warm inner dust temperature is readily explained if populations of small grains are being released by sublimation of ice from icy planetesimals. Evaporation of low-eccentricity icy bodies at ∼ 150 K can deposit particles into an inner/warm belt, where the small grains are heated to dust Temperatures of -190 K. Alternatively, enhanced collisional processing of an asteroid belt-like system of parent planetesimals just interior to the snow line may account for the observed uniformity in dust temperature. The similarity in temperature of the warmer dust across our B8-KO stellar sample strongly suggests that dust-producing planetesimals are not found at similar radial locations around all stars, but that dust production is favored at a characteristic temperature horizon.

Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming

KAUST Repository

Sawall, Yvonne

2015-03-10

Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21-27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28-33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals.

Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming

KAUST Repository

Sawall, Yvonne; Al-Sofyani, Abdulmoshin; Hohn, Sö nke; Banguera Hinestroza, Eulalia; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wahl, Martin

2015-01-01

Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21-27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28-33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals.

The cultural evolution of human communication systems in different sized populations: usability trumps learnability.

Science.gov (United States)

Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T Mark

2013-01-01

This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability.

Both life-history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range-wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Megan L; Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

2018-04-01

Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species-wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life-history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species-wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species' range-not only those at the trailing range edge-could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species' latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade-off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species' ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest

Strong Delayed Interactive Effects of Metal Exposure and Warming: Latitude-Dependent Synergisms Persist Across Metamorphosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Debecker, Sara; Dinh, Khuong V; Stoks, Robby

2017-02-21

As contaminants are often more toxic at higher temperatures, predicting their impact under global warming remains a key challenge for ecological risk assessment. Ignoring delayed effects, synergistic interactions between contaminants and warming, and differences in sensitivity across species' ranges could lead to an important underestimation of the risks. We addressed all three mechanisms by studying effects of larval exposure to zinc and warming before, during, and after metamorphosis in Ischnura elegans damselflies from high- and low-latitude populations. By integrating these mechanisms into a single study, we could identify two novel patterns. First, during exposure zinc did not affect survival, whereas it induced mild to moderate postexposure mortality in the larval stage and at metamorphosis, and very strongly reduced adult lifespan. This severe delayed effect across metamorphosis was especially remarkable in high-latitude animals, as they appeared almost insensitive to zinc during the larval stage. Second, the well-known synergism between metals and warming was manifested not only during the larval stage but also after metamorphosis, yet notably only in low-latitude damselflies. These results highlight that a more complete life-cycle approach that incorporates the possibility of delayed interactions between contaminants and warming in a geographical context is crucial for a more realistic risk assessment in a warming world.

Plasmodium vivax populations revisited: mitochondrial genomes of temperate strains in Asia suggest ancient population expansion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miao Miao

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Plasmodium vivax is the most widely distributed human malaria parasite outside of Africa, and its range extends well into the temperate zones. Previous studies provided evidence for vivax population differentiation, but temperate vivax parasites were not well represented in these analyses. Here we address this deficit by using complete mitochondrial (mt genome sequences to elucidate the broad genetic diversity and population structure of P. vivax from temperate regions in East and Southeast Asia. Results From the complete mtDNA sequences of 99 clinical samples collected in China, Myanmar and Korea, a total of 30 different haplotypes were identified from 26 polymorphic sites. Significant differentiation between different East and Southeast Asian parasite populations was observed except for the comparison between populations from Korea and southern China. Haplotype patterns and structure diversity analysis showed coexistence of two different groups in East Asia, which were genetically related to the Southeast Asian population and Myanmar population, respectively. The demographic history of P. vivax, examined using neutrality tests and mismatch distribution analyses, revealed population expansion events across the entire P. vivax range and the Myanmar population. Bayesian skyline analysis further supported the occurrence of ancient P. vivax population expansion. Conclusions This study provided further resolution of the population structure and evolution of P. vivax, especially in temperate/warm-temperate endemic areas of Asia. The results revealed divergence of the P. vivax populations in temperate regions of China and Korea from other populations. Multiple analyses confirmed ancient population expansion of this parasite. The extensive genetic diversity of the P. vivax populations is consistent with phenotypic plasticity of the parasites, which has implications for malaria control.

Methods of patient warming during abdominal surgery.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Shao

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Keeping abdominal surgery patients warm is common and warming methods are needed in power outages during natural disasters. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of low-cost, low-power warming methods for maintaining normothermia in abdominal surgery patients. METHODS: Patients (n = 160 scheduled for elective abdominal surgery were included in this prospective clinical study. Five warming methods were applied: heated blood transfusion/fluid infusion vs. unheated; wrapping patients vs. not wrapping; applying moist dressings, heated or not; surgical field rinse heated or not; and applying heating blankets or not. Patients' nasopharyngeal and rectal temperatures were recorded to evaluate warming efficacy. Significant differences were found in mean temperatures of warmed patients compared to those not warmed. RESULTS: When we compared temperatures of abdominal surgery patient groups receiving three specific warming methods with temperatures of control groups not receiving these methods, significant differences were revealed in temperatures maintained during the surgeries between the warmed groups and controls. DISCUSSION: The value of maintaining normothermia in patients undergoing abdominal surgery under general anesthesia is accepted. Three effective economical and practically applicable warming methods are combined body wrapping and heating blanket; combined body wrapping, heated moist dressings, and heating blanket; combined body wrapping, heated moist dressings, and warmed surgical rinse fluid, with or without heating blanket. These methods are practically applicable when low-cost method is indeed needed.

Faster Increases in Human Life Expectancy Could Lead to Slower Population Aging

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

Counterintuitively, faster increases in human life expectancy could lead to slower population aging. The conventional view that faster increases in human life expectancy would lead to faster population aging is based on the assumption that people become old at a fixed chronological age. A preferable alternative is to base measures of aging on people’s time left to death, because this is more closely related to the characteristics that are associated with old age. Using this alternative interpretation, we show that faster increases in life expectancy would lead to slower population aging. Among other things, this finding affects the assessment of the speed at which countries will age. PMID:25876033

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Identifying Like-Minded Audiences for Global Warming Public Engagement Campaigns: An Audience Segmentation Analysis and Tool Development

Science.gov (United States)

Maibach, Edward W.; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Mertz, C. K.

2011-01-01

Background Achieving national reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will require public support for climate and energy policies and changes in population behaviors. Audience segmentation – a process of identifying coherent groups within a population – can be used to improve the effectiveness of public engagement campaigns. Methodology/Principal Findings In Fall 2008, we conducted a nationally representative survey of American adults (n = 2,164) to identify audience segments for global warming public engagement campaigns. By subjecting multiple measures of global warming beliefs, behaviors, policy preferences, and issue engagement to latent class analysis, we identified six distinct segments ranging in size from 7 to 33% of the population. These six segments formed a continuum, from a segment of people who were highly worried, involved and supportive of policy responses (18%), to a segment of people who were completely unconcerned and strongly opposed to policy responses (7%). Three of the segments (totaling 70%) were to varying degrees concerned about global warming and supportive of policy responses, two (totaling 18%) were unsupportive, and one was largely disengaged (12%), having paid little attention to the issue. Certain behaviors and policy preferences varied greatly across these audiences, while others did not. Using discriminant analysis, we subsequently developed 36-item and 15-item instruments that can be used to categorize respondents with 91% and 84% accuracy, respectively. Conclusions/Significance In late 2008, Americans supported a broad range of policies and personal actions to reduce global warming, although there was wide variation among the six identified audiences. To enhance the impact of campaigns, government agencies, non-profit organizations, and businesses seeking to engage the public can selectively target one or more of these audiences rather than address an undifferentiated general population. Our screening instruments are

Identifying like-minded audiences for global warming public engagement campaigns: an audience segmentation analysis and tool development.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward W Maibach

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Achieving national reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will require public support for climate and energy policies and changes in population behaviors. Audience segmentation--a process of identifying coherent groups within a population--can be used to improve the effectiveness of public engagement campaigns.In Fall 2008, we conducted a nationally representative survey of American adults (n = 2,164 to identify audience segments for global warming public engagement campaigns. By subjecting multiple measures of global warming beliefs, behaviors, policy preferences, and issue engagement to latent class analysis, we identified six distinct segments ranging in size from 7 to 33% of the population. These six segments formed a continuum, from a segment of people who were highly worried, involved and supportive of policy responses (18%, to a segment of people who were completely unconcerned and strongly opposed to policy responses (7%. Three of the segments (totaling 70% were to varying degrees concerned about global warming and supportive of policy responses, two (totaling 18% were unsupportive, and one was largely disengaged (12%, having paid little attention to the issue. Certain behaviors and policy preferences varied greatly across these audiences, while others did not. Using discriminant analysis, we subsequently developed 36-item and 15-item instruments that can be used to categorize respondents with 91% and 84% accuracy, respectively.In late 2008, Americans supported a broad range of policies and personal actions to reduce global warming, although there was wide variation among the six identified audiences. To enhance the impact of campaigns, government agencies, non-profit organizations, and businesses seeking to engage the public can selectively target one or more of these audiences rather than address an undifferentiated general population. Our screening instruments are available to assist in that process.

Identifying like-minded audiences for global warming public engagement campaigns: an audience segmentation analysis and tool development.

Science.gov (United States)

Maibach, Edward W; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Mertz, C K

2011-03-10

Achieving national reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will require public support for climate and energy policies and changes in population behaviors. Audience segmentation--a process of identifying coherent groups within a population--can be used to improve the effectiveness of public engagement campaigns. In Fall 2008, we conducted a nationally representative survey of American adults (n = 2,164) to identify audience segments for global warming public engagement campaigns. By subjecting multiple measures of global warming beliefs, behaviors, policy preferences, and issue engagement to latent class analysis, we identified six distinct segments ranging in size from 7 to 33% of the population. These six segments formed a continuum, from a segment of people who were highly worried, involved and supportive of policy responses (18%), to a segment of people who were completely unconcerned and strongly opposed to policy responses (7%). Three of the segments (totaling 70%) were to varying degrees concerned about global warming and supportive of policy responses, two (totaling 18%) were unsupportive, and one was largely disengaged (12%), having paid little attention to the issue. Certain behaviors and policy preferences varied greatly across these audiences, while others did not. Using discriminant analysis, we subsequently developed 36-item and 15-item instruments that can be used to categorize respondents with 91% and 84% accuracy, respectively. In late 2008, Americans supported a broad range of policies and personal actions to reduce global warming, although there was wide variation among the six identified audiences. To enhance the impact of campaigns, government agencies, non-profit organizations, and businesses seeking to engage the public can selectively target one or more of these audiences rather than address an undifferentiated general population. Our screening instruments are available to assist in that process.

Statistical factors to qualify the superconducting magnets for the SSC based on warm/cold correlations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, K.; Devred, A.; Coles, M.; Tompkins, J.

1993-05-01

All of the SSC production magnets will be measured at room temperature (warm), but only a fraction of these will be measured at liquid helium temperature (cold). The fractional information will then be analyzed to determine warm acceptance criteria for the field quality of the SSC magnets. Regarding predictors of the field quality based on partial information, there are several observations and studies based on the warm/cold correlation. A different facet of the acceptance test is production control, which interprets the warm/cold correlation to adjust the process parameters. For these applications, we are evaluating statistical techniques relying on asymptotic estimators of the systematic errors and random errors, and their respective confidence intervals. The estimators are useful to qualify the population magnets based on a subset of sample magnets. We present the status of our work, including: (i) a recapitulation of analytic formulas, (ii) a justification based on HERA magnet experience, and (iii) a practical interpretation of these estimators

The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

Science.gov (United States)

Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

2012-12-01

The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

G-warm inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herrera, Ramón, E-mail: ramon.herrera@pucv.cl [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2950, Casilla 4059, Valparaíso (Chile)

2017-05-01

A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G (φ, X )= g (φ) X . As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R <1+3 gH φ-dot , and the strong regime in which 1< R +3 gH φ-dot . Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T > H , the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r = r ( n {sub s} ) from Planck data.

Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-06-06

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

Diversity of human small intestinal Streptococcus and Veillonella populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Bogert, Bartholomeus; Erkus, Oylum; Boekhorst, Jos; de Goffau, Marcus; Smid, Eddy J.; Zoetendal, Erwin G.; Kleerebezem, Michiel

Molecular and cultivation approaches were employed to study the phylogenetic richness and temporal dynamics of Streptococcus and Veillonella populations in the small intestine. Microbial profiling of human small intestinal samples collected from four ileostomy subjects at four time points displayed

Assessing the global warming potential of human settlement expansion in a mesic temperate landscape from 2005 to 2050.

Science.gov (United States)

Reinmann, Andrew B; Hutyra, Lucy R; Trlica, Andrew; Olofsson, Pontus

2016-03-01

Expansion of human settlements is an important driver of global environmental change that causes land use and land cover change (LULCC) and alters the biophysical nature of the landscape and climate. We use the state of Massachusetts, United States (U.S.) to present a novel approach to quantifying the effects of projected expansion of human settlements on the biophysical nature of the landscape. We integrate nationally available datasets with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios model to model albedo and C storage and uptake by forests and vegetation within human settlements. Our results indicate a 4.4 to 14% decline in forest cover and a 35 to 40% increase in developed land between 2005 and 2050, with large spatial variability. LULCC is projected to reduce rates of forest C sequestration, but our results suggest that vegetation within human settlements has the potential to offset a substantial proportion of the decline in the forest C sink and may comprise up to 35% of the terrestrial C sink by 2050. Changes in albedo and terrestrial C fluxes are expected to result in a global warming potential (GWP) of +0.13 Mg CO2-C-equivalence ha(-1)year(-1) under the baseline trajectory, which is equivalent to 17% of the projected increase in fossil fuel emissions. Changes in terrestrial C fluxes are generally the most important driver of the increase in GWP, but albedo change becomes an increasingly important component where housing densities are higher. Expansion of human settlements is the new face of LULCC and our results indicate that when quantifying the biophysical response it is essential to consider C uptake by vegetation within human settlements and the spatial variability in the influence of C fluxes and albedo on changes in GWP. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What if mankind warms the earth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kellogg, W.W.

1977-01-01

There are a variety of human activities that are being pursued on such a large scale that they may influence regional and global climate. Virtually all of these activities, including the addition of carbon dioxide and particles to the atmosphere, are expected on theoretical grounds to cause an increase in mean surface temperature in the decades ahead, and by 2000 AD the total warming effect will probably be larger than any of the natural climate fluctuations during the past 1,000 years or more. It is therefore pertinent ot inquire what a warmer earth might be like; and to obtain a first rough answer we turn to our mathematical models of the atmosphere, and also to the conditions that have been deduced for the period about 4,000 to 8,000 years ago when the earth was apparently several degress warmer the now. Atan now. At that time some areas that are now subtropical deserts received more rainfall, and there were other areas in the middle latitudes that were drier. There are several important implications for society if mankind does succeed in warming the earth - and a number of still unanswered questions as well. (orig.) [de

Authropogenic Warming in North Alaska?.

Science.gov (United States)

Michaels, Patrick J.; Sappington, David E.; Stooksbury, David E.

1988-09-01

Using permafrost boreholes, Lachenbruch and Marshall recently reported evidence for a 2°-4°C warming in North Alaska occurring at some undetermined time during the last century. Popular accounts suggest their findings are evidence for anthropogenic warming caused by trace gases. Analyses of North Alaskan 1000-500 mb thickness onwards back to 1948 indicate that the warming was prior to that date. Relatively sparse thermometric data for the early twentieth century from Jones et al. are too noisy to support any trend since the data record begins in 1910, or to apply to any subperiod of climatic significance. Any warming detected from the permafrost record therefore occurred before the major emissions of thermally active trace gases.

Anthropogenics: Human influence on global and genetic homogenization of parasite populations

Science.gov (United States)

The distribution, abundance, and diversity of life on Earth have been greatly shaped by human activities. This is no truer than in the geographic expansion of parasites; however, measuring the extent to which humans have influenced the dissemination and population structure of parasites has been cha...

A mathematical model of interaction among humans, vampires and werewolves populations

Science.gov (United States)

Sumarti, Novriana; Nurrizky, Insan; Nuraini, Nuning

2018-03-01

In every country there are many fictional creatures depicting evil. In the western world, fictional creatures who often appear in horror stories are vampires and werewolves. Many released movies expose the conflict between humans with one or both creatures. In this paper, the interaction among humans, vampires and werewolves is modeled using a system of differential equations. We consider the stability of equilibrium points of the system that represent four situations; only humans remain or a disease-free condition, either vampires or werewolves are going to extinction, and no population goes extinct. The derived model is implemented for depicting some scenarios in the movie series of Underworld. The model can describe the fluctuation of vampires and werewolves population from the beginning to their extinction at 1500 years since the story started.

Allowable warm ischemic time and morphological and biochemical changes in uterine ischemia/reperfusion injury in cynomolgus macaque: a basic study for uterus transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kisu, Iori; Umene, Kiyoko; Adachi, Masataka; Emoto, Katsura; Nogami, Yuya; Banno, Kouji; Itagaki, Iori; Kawamoto, Ikuo; Nakagawa, Takahiro; Narita, Hayato; Yoshida, Atsushi; Tsuchiya, Hideaki; Ogasawara, Kazumasa; Aoki, Daisuke

2017-10-01

How long is the allowable warm ischemic time of the uterus and what morphological and biochemical changes are caused by uterine ischemia/reperfusion injury in cynomolgus macaques? Warm ischemia in the uterus of cynomolgus macaques is tolerated for up to 4 h and reperfusion after uterine ischemia caused no further morphological and biochemical changes. Uterus transplantation is a potential option for women with uterine factor infertility. The allowable warm ischemic time and ischemia/reperfusion injury of the uterus in humans and non-human primates is unknown. This experimental study included 18 female cynomolgus macaques with periodic menstruation. Animals were divided into six groups of three monkeys each: a control group and groups with uterine ischemia for 0.5, 1, 2, 4 and 8 h. Biopsies of uterine tissues were performed before blood flow blockage, after each blockage time, and after reperfusion for 3 h. Blood sampling was performed after each blockage time, and after reperfusion for 5, 15 and 30 min for measurement of biochemical data. Resumption of menstruation was monitored after the surgical procedure. Morphological, physiological and biochemical changes after ischemia and reperfusion were evaluated. Mild muscle degeneration and zonal degeneration were observed in all animals subjected to warm ischemia for 4 or 8 h, but there were no marked differences in the appearance of specimens immediately after ischemia and after reperfusion for 3 h in animals subjected to 4 or 8 h of warm ischemia. There were no significant changes in any biochemical parameters at any time point in each group. Periodical menstruation resumed in all animals with warm ischemia up to 4 h, but did not recover in animals with warm ischemia for 8 h with atrophic uteri. Warm ischemia in actual transplantation was not exactly mimicked in this study because uteri were not perfused, cooled, transplanted or reanastomosed with vessels. Results in non-human primates cannot always be extrapolated to

The effect of warm-ups with stretching on the isokinetic moments of collegiate men.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Hyoung-Kil; Jung, Min-Kyung; Park, Eunkyung; Lee, Chang-Young; Jee, Yong-Seok; Eun, Denny; Cha, Jun-Youl; Yoo, Jaehyun

2018-02-01

Performing warm-ups increases muscle temperature and blood flow, which contributes to improved exercise performance and reduced risk of injuries to muscles and tendons. Stretching increases the range of motion of the joints and is effective for the maintenance and enhancement of exercise performance and flexibility, as well as for injury prevention. However, stretching as a warm-up activity may temporarily decrease muscle strength, muscle power, and exercise performance. This study aimed to clarify the effect of stretching during warm-ups on muscle strength, muscle power, and muscle endurance in a nonathletic population. The subjects of this study consisted of 13 physically active male collegiate students with no medical conditions. A self-assessment questionnaire regarding how well the subjects felt about their physical abilities was administered to measure psychological readiness before and after the warm-up. Subjects performed a non-warm-up, warm-up, or warm-up regimen with stretching prior to the assessment of the isokinetic moments of knee joints. After the measurements, the respective variables were analyzed using nonparametric tests. First, no statistically significant intergroup differences were found in the flexor and extensor peak torques of the knee joints at 60°/sec, which were assessed to measure muscle strength. Second, no statistically significant intergroup differences were found in the flexor and extensor peak torques of the knee joints at 180°/sec, which were assessed to measure muscle power. Third, the total work of the knee joints at 240°/sec, intended to measure muscle endurance, was highest in the aerobic-stretch-warm-ups (ASW) group, but no statistically significant differences were found among the groups. Finally, the psychological readiness for physical activity according to the type of warm-up was significantly higher in ASW. Simple stretching during warm-ups appears to have no effect on variables of exercise physiology in nonathletes

Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lara M. Kueppers

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Accurately predicting upslope shifts in subalpine tree ranges with warming requires understanding how future forest populations will be affected by climate change, as these are the seed sources for new tree line and alpine populations. Early life history stages are particularly sensitive to climate and are also influenced by genetic variation among populations. We tested the climate sensitivity of germination and initial development for two widely distributed subalpine conifers, using controlled-environment growth chambers with one temperature regime from subalpine forest in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and one 5 °C warmer, and two soil moisture levels. We tracked germination rate and timing, rate of seedling development, and seedling morphology for two seed provenances separated by ~300 m elevation. Warming advanced germination timing and initial seedling development by a total of ~2 weeks, advances comparable to mean differences between provenances. Advances were similar for both provenances and species; however, warming reduced the overall germination rate, as did low soil moisture, only for Picea engelmannii. A three-year field warming and watering experiment planted with the same species and provenances yielded responses qualitatively consistent with the lab trials. Together these experiments indicate that in a warmer, drier climate, P. engelmannii germination, and thus regeneration, could decline, which could lead to declining subalpine forest populations, while Pinus flexilis forest populations could remain robust as a seed source for upslope range shifts.

Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Regehr, E.V.; Lunn, N.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2007-01-01

Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as

Nuclear Energy is the Answer to Cope with the Lack of Energy and Global Warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wisnu Arya Wardhana

2009-01-01

This paper of nuclear energy is the answer to cope with the lack of energy and global warming based on the analysis of energy demand which is increasing rapidly, meanwhile the energy reserve is limited and decreased. Mostly world′s energy is generated by fossil fuel energy, mainly oil and coal. Fossil fuel energy and industrial activities produce green house gases (GHG) such as : COx, CH 4 , N 2 O, and CFC which cause of global warming. Global warming gives bad impact to environment and to human being. Every country in the world needs sufficient energy, but the energy resources is limited and decreased. The answer for this solution must be an energy source which does not produce green house gases. Why nuclear energy is chosen to cope with the lack of energy and global warming will be explained briefly in this paper. (author)

A century of ocean warming on Florida Keys coral reefs: historic in situ observations

Science.gov (United States)

Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Lidz, Barbara H.; Hudson, J. Harold; Anderson, Jeffery S.

2015-01-01

There is strong evidence that global climate change over the last several decades has caused shifts in species distributions, species extinctions, and alterations in the functioning of ecosystems. However, because of high variability on short (i.e., diurnal, seasonal, and annual) timescales as well as the recency of a comprehensive instrumental record, it is difficult to detect or provide evidence for long-term, site-specific trends in ocean temperature. Here we analyze five in situ datasets from Florida Keys coral reef habitats, including historic measurements taken by lighthouse keepers, to provide three independent lines of evidence supporting approximately 0.8 °C of warming in sea surface temperature (SST) over the last century. Results indicate that the warming observed in the records between 1878 and 2012 can be fully accounted for by the warming observed in recent decades (from 1975 to 2007), documented using in situ thermographs on a mid-shore patch reef. The magnitude of warming revealed here is similar to that found in other SST datasets from the region and to that observed in global mean surface temperature. The geologic context and significance of recent ocean warming to coral growth and population dynamics are discussed, as is the future prognosis for the Florida reef tract.

The cultural evolution of human communication systems in different sized populations: usability trumps learnability.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Fay

Full Text Available This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both, and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity, but harder to learn (identification accuracy for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability.

Landscape requirements of a primate population in a human-dominated environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hoffman Tali S

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction As urban and rural land development become widespread features of the global landscape so an understanding of the landscape requirements of displaced and isolated wildlife species becomes increasingly important for conservation planning. In the Cape Peninsula, South Africa, rapid human population growth, and the associated urban and rural land transformation, threatens the sustainability of the local chacma baboon population. Here we analyse spatial data collected from nine of the 12 extant troops to determine their population-level landscape requirements. We use hurdle models to ascertain the key landscape features influencing baboon occurrence and abundance patterns on two hierarchical spatial scales. Results Both spatial scales produced similar results that were ecologically reliable and interpretable. The models indicated that baboons were more likely to occur, and be more abundant, at low altitudes, on steep slopes and in human-modified habitats. The combination of these landscape variables provides baboons with access to the best quality natural and anthropogenic food sources in close proximity to one another and suitable sleeping sites. Surface water did not emerge as an influential landscape feature presumably as the area is not water stressed. Conclusions The model results indicate that land development in the Cape Peninsula has pushed baboons into increasingly marginal natural habitat while simultaneously providing them with predictable and easily accessible food sources in human-modified habitats. The resultant spatial competition between humans and baboons explains the high levels of human-baboon conflict and further erosion of the remaining land fragments is predicted to exacerbate competition. This study demonstrates how the quantification of animal landscape requirements can provide a mechanism for identifying priority conservation areas at the human-wildlife interface.

The evolution of wealth transmission in human populations: a stochastic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Augustins, G; Etienne, L; Ferrer, R; Godelle, B; Rousset, F; Ferdy, J-B; Pitard, E

2014-01-01

Reproductive success and survival are influenced by wealth in human populations. Wealth is transmitted to offsprings and strategies of transmission vary over time and among populations, the main variation being how equally wealth is transmitted to children. Here we propose a model where we simulate both the dynamics of wealth in a population and the evolution of a trait that determines how wealth is transmitted from parents to offspring, in a darwinian context

The Origins and Consequences of democratic citizens' Policy Agendas. A Study of Popular Concern about Global Warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krosnick, J.A.; Holbrook, A.L.; Lowe, L.; Visser, P.S.

2006-01-01

This article proposes and tests a model of the causes and consequences of Americans' judgments of the national seriousness of global warming. The model proposes that seriousness judgments about global warming are a function of beliefs about the existence of global warming, attitudes toward it, the certainty with which these beliefs and attitudes are held, and beliefs about human responsibility for causing global warming and people's ability to remedy it. The model also proposes that beliefs about whether global warming is a problem are a function of relevant personal experiences (with the weather) and messages from informants (in this case, scientists), that attitudes toward global warming are a function of particular perceived consequences of global warming, and that certainty about these attitudes and beliefs is a function of knowledge and prior thought. Data from two representative sample surveys offer support for all of these propositions, document effects of national seriousness judgments on support for ameliorative efforts generally and specific ameliorative policies, and thereby point to psychological mechanisms that may be responsible for institutional and elite impact on the public's assessments of national problem importance and on public policy preferences

Population specific biomarkers of human aging: a big data study using South Korean, Canadian and Eastern European patient populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Mamoshina, Polina; Kochetov, Kirill; Putin, Evgeny; Cortese, Franco; Aliper, Alexander; Lee, Won-Suk; Ahn, Sung-Min; Uhn, Lee; Skjodt, Neil; Kovalchuk, Olga; Scheibye-Knudsen, Morten; Zhavoronkov, Alex

2018-01-11

Accurate and physiologically meaningful biomarkers for human aging are key to assessing anti-aging therapies. Given ethnic differences in health, diet, lifestyle, behaviour, environmental exposures and even average rate of biological aging, it stands to reason that aging clocks trained on datasets obtained from specific ethnic populations are more likely to account for these potential confounding factors, resulting in an enhanced capacity to predict chronological age and quantify biological age. Here we present a deep learning-based hematological aging clock modeled using the large combined dataset of Canadian, South Korean and Eastern European population blood samples that show increased predictive accuracy in individual populations compared to population-specific hematologic aging clocks. The performance of models was also evaluated on publicly-available samples of the American population from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). In addition, we explored the association between age predicted by both population-specific and combined hematological clocks and all-cause mortality. Overall, this study suggests a) the population-specificity of aging patterns and b) hematologic clocks predicts all-cause mortality. Proposed models added to the freely available Aging.AI system allowing improved ability to assess human aging. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

Fewer bacteria in warm water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bagh, Lene

1999-01-01

There has been many suggestions to how the ideal warm water system should be. Particularly whether warm water containers or heat exchangers in larger houses are the best solutions in order to maintain a water quality with low levels of bacteria. In an investigation made by Statens Byggeforskningsinstitutt (Denmark) regarding ''Bacterial growth in warm water installations with heat exchangers'' there were used several heat exchangers made by Gjelsted and Lund of three of which had HWAT heating cables. The bacterial content was low from these exchangers compared to exchangers with circulation. The article presents promising results from a study where the method was investigated over a longer period in two new larger warm water systems. Some energy conservation aspects are discussed

Nature Appropriation and Associations with Population Health in Canada’s Largest Cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy Jason

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Earth is a finite system with a limited supply of resources. As the human population grows, so does the appropriation of Earth’s natural capital, thereby exacerbating environmental concerns such as biodiversity loss, increased pollution, deforestation and global warming. Such concerns will negatively impact human health although it is widely believed that improving socio-economic circumstances will help to ameliorate environmental impacts and improve health outcomes. However, this belief does not explicitly acknowledge the fact that improvements in socio-economic position are reliant on increased inputs from nature. Gains in population health, particularly through economic means, are disconnected from the appropriation of nature to create wealth so that health gains become unsustainable. The current study investigated the sustainability of human population health in Canada with regard to resource consumption or “ecological footprints” (i.e., the resources required to sustain a given population. Ecological footprints of the 20 largest Canadian cities, along with several important determinants of health such as income and education, were statistically compared with corresponding indicators of human population health outcomes. A significant positive relationship was found between ecological footprints and life expectancy, as well as a significant negative relationship between ecological footprints and the prevalence of high blood pressure. Results suggest that increased appropriation of nature is linked to improved health outcomes. To prevent environmental degradation from excessive appropriation of natural resources will require the development of health promotion strategies that are de-coupled from ever-increasing and unsustainable resource use. Efforts to promote population health should focus on health benefits achieved from a lifestyle based on significantly reduced consumption of natural resources.

Elimination of two reef-building hydrocorals following the 1982-83 El Nino warming event

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glynn, P W; De Weerdt, W H [University of Miami, Miami, FL (USA). Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Division of Marine Biology and Fisheries

1991-07-05

One probable extinction and one range reduction of eastern Pacific reef-building hydrocoral ({ital Millepora}) species mark the first documented cases of species eliminations resulting from the worldwide 1980s coral reef bleaching events. Two of 12 Panamanian coral species were eliminated suddenly from their former ranges by prolonged high sea temperatures during the 1982-83 El Nino-Southern Oscillation event. Three conditions contributed to their demise: high sensitivity to sea warming, populations confined to a small geographic area, and bathymetric restriction to the euphotic zone ({le}20 meters depth) where El Nino sea warming had its greatest effect.

Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

2018-03-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryghaug, Marianne; Sørensen, Knut Holtan; Naess, Robert

2011-11-01

This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics.

Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong

2017-12-01

The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere

OpenAIRE

Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia; Lin, Pu

2015-01-01

Since the slowing of the trend of increasing surface air temperature (SAT) in the late 1990?s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the warming observed in previous decades. Although several explanations have been proposed for the warming-trend slowdown (WTS), none has been generally accepted. We investigate the WTS using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced and radiatively fo...

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

2016-10-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

Warming off southwestern Japan linked to distributional shifts of subtidal canopy-forming seaweeds.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Kouki; Taino, Seiya; Haraguchi, Hiroko; Prendergast, Gabrielle; Hiraoka, Masanori

2012-11-01

To assess distributional shifts of species in response to recent warming, historical distribution records are the most requisite information. The surface seawater temperature (SST) of Kochi Prefecture, southwestern Japan on the western North Pacific, has significantly risen, being warmed by the Kuroshio Current. Past distributional records of subtidal canopy-forming seaweeds (Laminariales and Fucales) exist at about 10-year intervals from the 1970s, along with detailed SST datasets at several sites along Kochi's >700 km coastline. In order to provide a clear picture of distributional shifts of coastal marine organisms in response to warming SST, we observed the present distribution of seaweeds and analyzed the SST datasets to estimate spatiotemporal SST trends in this coastal region. We present a large increase of 0.3°C/decade in the annual mean SST of this area over the past 40 years. Furthermore, a comparison of the previous and present distributions clearly showed the contraction of temperate species' distributional ranges and expansion of tropical species' distributional ranges in the seaweeds. Although the main temperate kelp Ecklonia (Laminariales) had expanded their distribution during periods of cooler SST, they subsequently declined as the SST warmed. Notably, the warmest SST of the 1997-98 El Niño Southern Oscillation event was the most likely cause of a widespread destruction of the kelp populations; no recovery was found even in the present survey at the formerly habitable sites where warm SSTs have been maintained. Temperate Sargassum spp. (Fucales) that dominated widely in the 1970s also declined in accordance with recent warming SSTs. In contrast, the tropical species, S. ilicifolium, has gradually expanded its distribution to become the most conspicuously dominant among the present observations. Thermal gradients, mainly driven by the warming Kuroshio Current, are presented as an explanation for the successive changes in both temperate and

Circadian analysis of large human populations: inferences from the power grid.

Science.gov (United States)

Stowie, Adam C; Amicarelli, Mario J; Crosier, Caitlin J; Mymko, Ryan; Glass, J David

2015-03-01

Few, if any studies have focused on the daily rhythmic nature of modern industrialized populations. The present study utilized real-time load data from the U.S. Pacific Northwest electrical power grid as a reflection of human operative household activity. This approach involved actigraphic analyses of continuously streaming internet data (provided in 5 min bins) from a human subject pool of approximately 43 million primarily residential users. Rhythm analyses reveal striking seasonal and intra-week differences in human activity patterns, largely devoid of manufacturing and automated load interference. Length of the diurnal activity period (alpha) is longer during the spring than the summer (16.64 h versus 15.98 h, respectively; p job-related or other weekday morning arousal cues, substantiating a preference or need to sleep longer on weekends. Finally, a shift in onset time can be seen during the transition to Day Light Saving Time, but not the transition back to Standard Time. The use of grid power load as a means for human actimetry assessment thus offers new insights into the collective diurnal activity patterns of large human populations.

Warm natural inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

2013-01-01

In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflation with radiation, while at the same Âătime, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflation potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this talk we will discuss warm inflation with Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons (PNGB). In this case inflation and other light fields are PNGB. So, the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal Âăcorrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfill the contrary requirements of an inflation potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflation field with other light fields. This warm inflation model with PNGB gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index having the symmetry breaking scale at the GUT scale. (author)

Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Xiang; Adam Schlosser, C; Sokolov, Andrei; Anthony, Katey Walter; Zhuang Qianlai; Kicklighter, David

2013-01-01

Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback. We find that increases in atmospheric CH 4 and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, inundated emission sources, are small, particularly when weighed against human emissions. The additional warming, across the range of climate policy and uncertainties in the climate-system response, would be no greater than 0.1 ° C by 2100. Further, for this temperature feedback to be doubled (to approximately 0.2 ° C) by 2100, at least a 25-fold increase in the methane emission that results from the estimated permafrost degradation would be required. Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions. (letter)

Adventures in human population biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, P T

1996-01-01

This article is a memoir of anthropologist Paul Baker's professional life. The introduction notes that the field of anthropology was altered by the impact of World War II when physical anthropologists provided vital information to the military. After the war, the GI bill supported the undergraduate and graduate studies of veterans, including Baker. After describing his academic training at the University of New Mexico and Harvard, Baker details his research training and field work in the desert for the US Climatic Research Laboratory and his work identifying the dead in Japan for the Quartermaster unit. Baker then traces his academic career at the Pennsylvania State University during which he directed two multidisciplinary research efforts for the International Biological Programme, one that sought to understand human adaptability at high altitude in Peru and another that studied migration and modernization in Samoa. Baker's last administrative positions were as staff consultant to the Man and the Biosphere (MAB) program and as chair of the US MAB committee. Baker retired from academic life at age 60 in 1987 and has devoted his time to reading and to helping organize professional associations in anthropology, especially those devoted to furthering internationally organized scientific efforts. Baker concludes this memoir by acknowledging the growth and development of the discipline of human population biology.

Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Copepod Abundance, Body Size and Fatty Acid Content.

Science.gov (United States)

Garzke, Jessica; Hansen, Thomas; Ismar, Stefanie M H; Sommer, Ulrich

2016-01-01

Concerns about increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming have initiated studies on the consequences of multiple-stressor interactions on marine organisms and ecosystems. We present a fully-crossed factorial mesocosm study and assess how warming and acidification affect the abundance, body size, and fatty acid composition of copepods as a measure of nutritional quality. The experimental set-up allowed us to determine whether the effects of warming and acidification act additively, synergistically, or antagonistically on the abundance, body size, and fatty acid content of copepods, a major group of lower level consumers in marine food webs. Copepodite (developmental stages 1-5) and nauplii abundance were antagonistically affected by warming and acidification. Higher temperature decreased copepodite and nauplii abundance, while acidification partially compensated for the temperature effect. The abundance of adult copepods was negatively affected by warming. The prosome length of copepods was significantly reduced by warming, and the interaction of warming and CO2 antagonistically affected prosome length. Fatty acid composition was also significantly affected by warming. The content of saturated fatty acids increased, and the ratios of the polyunsaturated essential fatty acids docosahexaenoic- (DHA) and arachidonic acid (ARA) to total fatty acid content increased with higher temperatures. Additionally, here was a significant additive interaction effect of both parameters on arachidonic acid. Our results indicate that in a future ocean scenario, acidification might partially counteract some observed effects of increased temperature on zooplankton, while adding to others. These may be results of a fertilizing effect on phytoplankton as a copepod food source. In summary, copepod populations will be more strongly affected by warming rather than by acidifying oceans, but ocean acidification effects can modify some temperature impacts.

Response of human populations to large-scale emergencies

Science.gov (United States)

Bagrow, James; Wang, Dashun; Barabási, Albert-László

2010-03-01

Until recently, little quantitative data regarding collective human behavior during dangerous events such as bombings and riots have been available, despite its importance for emergency management, safety and urban planning. Understanding how populations react to danger is critical for prediction, detection and intervention strategies. Using a large telecommunications dataset, we study for the first time the spatiotemporal, social and demographic response properties of people during several disasters, including a bombing, a city-wide power outage, and an earthquake. Call activity rapidly increases after an event and we find that, when faced with a truly life-threatening emergency, information rapidly propagates through a population's social network. Other events, such as sports games, do not exhibit this propagation.

Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cook, John; Nuccitelli, Dana; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Skuce, Andrew; Green, Sarah A; Richardson, Mark; Way, Robert; Jacobs, Peter

2013-01-01

We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors’ self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research. (letter)

Who decides who has won the bet? Total and Anthropogenic Warming Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Haustein, K.; Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E. L.; Schmidt, A.; Frame, D. J.; Forster, P.; Matthews, D.

2016-12-01

An extension of the idea of betting markets as a means of revealing opinions about future climate are climate policies indexed to geophysical indicators: for example, to ensure net zero global carbon dioxide emissions by the time anthropogenic warming reaches 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial, given about 1 degree of warming already, emissions must fall, on average, by 20% of their current value for every tenth of a degree of anthropogenic warming from now on. In principle, policies conditioned on some measure of attributable warming are robust to uncertainty in the global climate response: the risk of a higher or lower response than expected is borne by those affected by climate change mitigation policy rather than those affected by climate change impacts, as is the case with emission targets for specific years based on "current understanding" of the response. To implement any indexed policy, or to agree payout terms for any bet on future climate, requires consensus on the definition of the index: how is it calculated, and who is responsible for releasing it? The global mean surface temperature of the current decade relative to pre-industrial may vary by 0.1 degree or more depending on precisely what is measured, what is defined as pre-industrial, and the treatment of regions with sparse data coverage in earlier years. Indices defined using different conventions, however, are all expected to evolve very similarly over the coming decades, so agreeing on a conservative, traceable index such as HadCRUT is more important than debating the "true" global temperature. A more important question is whether indexed policies and betting markets should focus on total warming, including natural and anthropogenic drivers and internal variability, or an Anthropogenic Warming Index (AWI) representing an unbiased estimate of warming attributable to human influence to date. We propose a simple AWI based solely on observed temperatures and global natural and anthropogenic forcing

Likely impact of global warming on developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Topping, J.

1992-01-01

Over the last couple of years there has been mounting evidence that the human costs of rapid global warming are likely to be concentrated especially in developing countries and that some countries may be gravely affected. Climate impacts research has until recently been focused principally on a handful of more affluent countries, but studies of climate impacts on developing countries are now under way and preliminary results are likely to be available for many areas of the world within the next year

Efficacy of Warm Showers on Postpartum Fatigue Among Vaginal-Birth Taiwanese Women: A Quasi-Experimental Design.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, Ching-Hsing; Chen, Chien-Lan; Chung, Feng-Fang; Lin, Su-Ying

2017-05-01

Postpartum fatigue is one of the most common complaints among women following childbirth. As a postpartum ritual practice, Taiwanese women refrain from taking showers while "doing the month." However, warm showers are the systemic application of moist heat, and they maintain physical hygiene, stimulate blood circulation, mitigate discomfort, and provide relaxation. As Taiwanese society becomes increasingly receptive to scientific and contemporary health care practice, more and more women choose to take warm showers after childbirth. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of warm showers on postpartum fatigue among vaginal-birth women in Taiwan. This was a two-group quasi-experimental design. Women took showers in warm water with temperatures ranging between 40 °C and 43 °C for approximately 20 minutes. Postpartum women's fatigue is measured using the 10-item Postpartum Fatigue Scale (PFS). The intervention effect was analyzed using a generalized estimating equation (GEE) model. The study population consisted of 358 vaginal-birth postpartum Taiwanese women aged 20-43 years. Postpartum women who took warm showers showed improvements from their pretest to posttest mean scores of postpartum fatigue compared to postpartum women who did not take warm showers. Warm showers helped to reduce postpartum fatigue among vaginal-birth women during the study period. Nurses have the unique opportunity to provide the intervention to Taiwanese women who have vaginal birth to help them relieve postpartum fatigue with warm showers while "doing the month" without the taboo of no-showering customary practices in the early postpartum period.

Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song

2018-05-01

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-01-01

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015–16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes. PMID:28585927

Resource Letter: GW-1: Global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Firor, John W.

1994-06-01

This Resource Letter provides a guide to the literature on the possibility of a human-induced climate change—a global warming. Journal articles and books are cited for the following topics: the Greenhouse Effect, sources of infrared-trapping gases, climate models and their uncertainties, verification of climate models, past climate changes, and economics, ethics, and politics of policy responses to climate change. [The letter E after an item indicates elementary level or material of general interest to persons becoming informed in the field. The letter I, for intermediate level, indicates material of somewhat more specialized nature, and the letter A indicates rather specialized or advanced material.

The global warming problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

In this chapter, a discussion is presented of the global warming problem and activities contributing to the formation of acid rain, urban smog and to the depletion of the ozone layer. Globally, about two-thirds of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions arise from fossil-fuel burning; the rest arise primarily from deforestation. Chlorofluorocarbons are the second largest contributor to global warming, accounting for about 20% of the total. The third largest contributor is methane, followed by ozone and nitrous oxide. A study of current activities in the US that contribute to global warming shows the following: electric power plants account for about 33% of carbon dioxide emissions; motor vehicles, planes and ships (31%); industrial plants (24%); commercial and residential buildings (11%)

Preferred Air Velocity and Local Cooling Effect of desk fans in warm environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simone, Angela; Olesen, Bjarne W.

2013-01-01

to compensate for higher environmental temperatures at the expense of no or relatively low energy consumption. When using desk fans, local air movement is generated around the occupant and a certain cooling effect is perceived. The impact of the local air movement generated by different air flow patterns......Common experiences, standards, and laboratory studies show that increased air velocity helps to offset warm sensation due to high environmental temperatures. In warm climate regions the opening of windows and the use of desk or ceiling fans are the most common systems to generate increased airflows......, and the possibility to keep comfortable conditions for the occupants in warm environments were evaluated in studies with human subjects. In an office-like climatic chamber, the effect of higher air velocity was investigated at room temperatures between 26°C to 34°C and at constant absolute humidity of 12.2 g...

On the differences between 1.5oC and 2oC of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

King, A.

2017-12-01

The Paris Agreement of 2015 has resulted in a drive to limit global warming to 2oC with an aim for a lower 1.5oC target. It is therefore vital that we understand some of the differences we would expect between these two levels of global warming. My research uses coupled climate model projections to investigate where and for what variables we can differentiate between worlds of 1.5oC and 2oC global warming. I place a particular focus on climate extremes and population exposure to those extremes. I have found that there are perceptible benefits in limiting global warming to 1.5oC as opposed to 2oC through reduced frequency and intensity of heat extremes, both over land and in ocean areas where thermal stress on coral has resulted in bleaching. Differences in high and low precipitation extremes between the 1.5oC and 2oC global warming levels are projected for some regions. I have also examined how "scalable" changes from the 1.5oC to 2oC level are. In areas of the world such as Eastern China I find that changes in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations will influence the level of change projected at 1.5oC and 2oC, such that past warming is likely to be a poor indicator of future changes. Overall, my research finds clear benefits to limiting global warming to 1.5oC relative to higher levels.

Self-interacting warm dark matter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hannestad, Steen; Scherrer, Robert J.

2000-01-01

It has been shown by many independent studies that the cold dark matter scenario produces singular galactic dark halos, in strong contrast with observations. Possible remedies are that either the dark matter is warm so that it has significant thermal motion or that the dark matter has strong self-interactions. We combine these ideas to calculate the linear mass power spectrum and the spectrum of cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuations for self-interacting warm dark matter. Our results indicate that such models have more power on small scales than is the case for the standard warm dark matter model, with a CMB fluctuation spectrum which is nearly indistinguishable from standard cold dark matter. This enhanced small-scale power may provide better agreement with the observations than does standard warm dark matter. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society

The interplay between human population dynamics and flooding in Bangladesh: a spatial analysis

Science.gov (United States)

di Baldassarre, G.; Yan, K.; Ferdous, MD. R.; Brandimarte, L.

2014-09-01

In Bangladesh, socio-economic and hydrological processes are both extremely dynamic and inter-related. Human population patterns are often explained as a response, or adaptation strategy, to physical events, e.g. flooding, salt-water intrusion, and erosion. Meanwhile, these physical processes are exacerbated, or mitigated, by diverse human interventions, e.g. river diversion, levees and polders. In this context, this paper describes an attempt to explore the complex interplay between floods and societies in Bangladeshi floodplains. In particular, we performed a spatially-distributed analysis of the interactions between the dynamics of human settlements and flood inundation patterns. To this end, we used flooding simulation results from inundation modelling, LISFLOOD-FP, as well as global datasets of population distribution data, such as the Gridded Population of the World (20 years, from 1990 to 2010) and HYDE datasets (310 years, from 1700 to 2010). The outcomes of this work highlight the behaviour of Bangladeshi floodplains as complex human-water systems and indicate the need to go beyond the traditional narratives based on one-way cause-effects, e.g. climate change leading to migrations.

Body mapping of cutaneous wetness perception across the human torso during thermo-neutral and warm environmental exposures.

Science.gov (United States)

Filingeri, Davide; Fournet, Damien; Hodder, Simon; Havenith, George

2014-10-15

Sensing skin wetness is linked to inputs arising from cutaneous cold-sensitive afferents. As thermosensitivity to cold varies significantly across the torso, we investigated whether similar regional differences in wetness perception exist. We also investigated the regional differences in thermal pleasantness and whether these sensory patterns are influenced by ambient temperature. Sixteen males (20 ± 2 yr) underwent a quantitative sensory test under thermo-neutral [air temperature (Tair) = 22°C; relative humidity (RH) = 50%] and warm conditions (Tair = 33°C; RH = 50%). Twelve regions of the torso were stimulated with a dry thermal probe (25 cm(2)) with a temperature of 15°C below local skin temperature (Tsk). Variations in Tsk, thermal, wetness, and pleasantness sensations were recorded. As a result of the same cold-dry stimulus, the skin-cooling response varied significantly by location (P = 0.003). The lateral chest showed the greatest cooling (-5 ± 0.4°C), whereas the lower back showed the smallest (-1.9 ± 0.4°C). Thermal sensations varied significantly by location and independently from regional variations in skin cooling with colder sensations reported on the lateral abdomen and lower back. Similarly, the frequency of perceived skin wetness was significantly greater on the lateral and lower back as opposed to the medial chest. Overall wetness perception was slightly higher under warm conditions. Significantly more unpleasant sensations were recorded when the lateral abdomen and lateral and lower back were stimulated. We conclude that humans present regional differences in skin wetness perception across the torso, with a pattern similar to the regional differences in thermosensitivity to cold. These findings indicate the presence of a heterogeneous distribution of cold-sensitive thermo-afferent information. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

Animal behaviour shapes the ecological effects of ocean acidification and warming: moving from individual to community-level responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagelkerken, Ivan; Munday, Philip L

2016-03-01

Biological communities are shaped by complex interactions between organisms and their environment as well as interactions with other species. Humans are rapidly changing the marine environment through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in ocean warming and acidification. The first response by animals to environmental change is predominantly through modification of their behaviour, which in turn affects species interactions and ecological processes. Yet, many climate change studies ignore animal behaviour. Furthermore, our current knowledge of how global change alters animal behaviour is mostly restricted to single species, life phases and stressors, leading to an incomplete view of how coinciding climate stressors can affect the ecological interactions that structure biological communities. Here, we first review studies on the effects of warming and acidification on the behaviour of marine animals. We demonstrate how pervasive the effects of global change are on a wide range of critical behaviours that determine the persistence of species and their success in ecological communities. We then evaluate several approaches to studying the ecological effects of warming and acidification, and identify knowledge gaps that need to be filled, to better understand how global change will affect marine populations and communities through altered animal behaviours. Our review provides a synthesis of the far-reaching consequences that behavioural changes could have for marine ecosystems in a rapidly changing environment. Without considering the pervasive effects of climate change on animal behaviour we will limit our ability to forecast the impacts of ocean change and provide insights that can aid management strategies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Human responses and non-responses to climatic variations during the last Glacial-Interglacial transition in the eastern Mediterranean

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Neil; Woodbridge, Jessie; Bevan, Andrew; Palmisano, Alessio; Shennan, Stephen; Asouti, Eleni

2018-03-01

We review and evaluate human adaptations during the last glacial-interglacial climatic transition in southwest Asia. Stable isotope data imply that climatic change was synchronous across the region within the limits of dating uncertainty. Changes in vegetation, as indicated from pollen and charcoal, mirror step-wise shifts between cold-dry and warm-wet climatic conditions, but with lag effects for woody vegetation in some upland and interior areas. Palaeoenvironmental data can be set against regional archaeological evidence for human occupancy and economy from the later Epipalaeolithic to the aceramic Neolithic. Demographic change is evaluated from summed radiocarbon date probability distributions, which indicating contrasting - and in some cases opposite - population trajectories in different regions. Abrupt warming transitions at ∼14.5 and 11.7 ka BP may have acted as pacemakers for rapid cultural change in some areas, notably at the start of the Natufian and Pre-Pottery Neolithic cultures. However temporal synchroneity does not mean that climatic changes had the same environmental or societal consequences in different regions. During cold-dry time intervals, regions such as the Levant acted as refugia for plant and animal resources and human population. In areas where socio-ecological continuity was maintained through periods of adverse climate (e.g. Younger Dryas) human communities were able to respond rapidly to subsequent climatic improvement. By contrast, in areas where there was a break in settlement at these times (e.g. central Anatolia), populations were slower to react to the new opportunities provided by the interglacial world.

Assessing the magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming of a shallow aquifer: example from Virginia Beach, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Eggleston, John R.; McCoy, Kurt J.

2015-01-01

Groundwater temperature measurements in a shallow coastal aquifer in Virginia Beach, Virginia, USA, suggest groundwater warming of +4.1 °C relative to deeper geothermal gradients. Observed warming is related to timing and depth of influence of two potential thermal drivers—atmospheric temperature increases and urbanization. Results indicate that up to 30 % of groundwater warming at the water table can be attributed to atmospheric warming while up to 70 % of warming can be attributed to urbanization. Groundwater temperature readings to 30-m depth correlate positively with percentage of impervious cover and negatively with percentage of tree canopy cover; thus, these two land-use metrics explain up to 70 % of warming at the water table. Analytical and numerical modeling results indicate that an average vertical groundwater temperature profile for the study area, constructed from repeat measurement at 11 locations over 15 months, is consistent with the timing of land-use change over the past century in Virginia Beach. The magnitude of human-induced warming at the water table (+4.1 °C) is twice the current seasonal temperature variation, indicating the potential for ecological impacts on wetlands and estuaries receiving groundwater discharge from shallow aquifers.

Free boundary models for mosquito range movement driven by climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Wendi; Du, Yihong; Lin, Zhigui; Zhu, Huaiping

2018-03-01

As vectors, mosquitoes transmit numerous mosquito-borne diseases. Among the many factors affecting the distribution and density of mosquitoes, climate change and warming have been increasingly recognized as major ones. In this paper, we make use of three diffusive logistic models with free boundary in one space dimension to explore the impact of climate warming on the movement of mosquito range. First, a general model incorporating temperature change with location and time is introduced. In order to gain insights of the model, a simplified version of the model with the change of temperature depending only on location is analyzed theoretically, for which the dynamical behavior is completely determined and presented. The general model can be modified into a more realistic one of seasonal succession type, to take into account of the seasonal changes of mosquito movements during each year, where the general model applies only for the time period of the warm seasons of the year, and during the cold season, the mosquito range is fixed and the population is assumed to be in a hibernating status. For both the general model and the seasonal succession model, our numerical simulations indicate that the long-time dynamical behavior is qualitatively similar to the simplified model, and the effect of climate warming on the movement of mosquitoes can be easily captured. Moreover, our analysis reveals that hibernating enhances the chances of survival and successful spreading of the mosquitoes, but it slows down the spreading speed.

Water, food, and population -- a panel discussion.

Science.gov (United States)

1996-01-01

This paper summarizes a conference panel discussion among parliamentarians and researchers on water and food supplies and population growth in Asia. The Western Samoa legislator urged delegates to be aware of human development that was no more than the promotion of values associated with a market economy. Samoans increased their per capita caloric consumption. The food supply is provided locally, and 90% of exports are food products. Food security would be jeopardized by a fivefold increase in population. Samoan human development indicators were relatively good for a developing country. However, the country was still ranked as a low-income, food-deficit country. The Pakistani delegate explained that Pakistan's agriculture used the largest, continuous irrigation system in the world. However, the system operated inefficiently. There was concern that future high population growth would jeopardize food security. Another barrier was institutional mismanagement of irrigation and reliance on imports for staple items. Agricultural productivity must increase to meet the increased needs of continued population growth. All available land is currently under cultivation. Future strategies will necessitate international cooperation and innovative and environmentally sound technology. Professor Xuan remarked that increased population growth and rising demand, decreased water quality, and changing consumption patterns were a threat to water supplies. Sustainable increases in food production would entail better water management: reforestation to reduce and prevent water runoff, better technological exploitation of rain water, and more efficient use of irrigation systems. Better international financing schemes were needed for support of these policy changes. Professor Ness suggested free markets in water in order to price water at actual rates of consumption. Polluters should pay. Water management was also threatened by global warming.

Chronic environmental stress enhances tolerance to seasonal gradual warming in marine mussels.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ionan Marigómez

Full Text Available In global climate change scenarios, seawater warming acts in concert with multiple stress sources, which may enhance the susceptibility of marine biota to thermal stress. Here, the responsiveness to seasonal gradual warming was investigated in temperate mussels from a chronically stressed population in comparison with a healthy one. Stressed and healthy mussels were subjected to gradual temperature elevation for 8 days (1°C per day; fall: 16-24°C, winter: 12-20°C, summer: 20-28°C and kept at elevated temperature for 3 weeks. Healthy mussels experienced thermal stress and entered the time-limited survival period in the fall, became acclimated in winter and exhibited sublethal damage in summer. In stressed mussels, thermal stress and subsequent health deterioration were elicited in the fall but no transition into the critical period of time-limited survival was observed. Stressed mussels did not become acclimated to 20°C in winter, when they experienced low-to-moderate thermal stress, and did not experience sublethal damage at 28°C in summer, showing instead signs of metabolic rate depression. Overall, although the thermal threshold was lowered in chronically stressed mussels, they exhibited enhanced tolerance to seasonal gradual warming, especially in summer. These results challenge current assumptions on the susceptibility of marine biota to the interactive effects of seawater warming and pollution.

Warm season chloride concentrations in stream habitats of freshwater mussel species at risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Todd, Aaron K.; Kaltenecker, M. Georgina

2012-01-01

Warm season (May–October) chloride concentrations were assessed in stream habitats of freshwater mussel species at risk in southern Ontario, Canada. Significant increases in concentrations were observed at 96% of 24 long-term (1975–2009) monitoring sites. Concentrations were described as a function of road density indicating an anthropogenic source of chloride. Linear regression showed that 36% of the variation of concentrations was explained by road salt use by the provincial transportation ministry. Results suggest that long-term road salt use and retention is contributing to a gradual increase in baseline chloride concentrations in at risk mussel habitats. Exposure of sensitive mussel larvae (glochidia) to increasing chloride concentrations may affect recruitment to at risk mussel populations. - Highlights: ► Warm season chloride concentrations were assessed in habitats of mussel species at risk. ► Concentrations increased significantly at 96% of 24 long-term monitoring sites. ► Concentrations increased with increases in road density and road salt use. ► Retention of road salt likely contributed to elevated warm season concentrations. ► Glochidia exposure to increasing concentrations may affect mussel reproduction. - Warm season chloride concentrations increased in southern Ontario streams with road salt use, such that reproduction of freshwater mussel species at risk may be affected.

Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

2008-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

Uses of warmed water in agriculture. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrett, R.E.

1978-11-01

Energy in the form of warmed water is available from condenser cooling water from fossil fuel or nuclear-electric power-generating facilities, geothermal power plants, geothermal fluids, or spent steam and cooling water from industrial processes. A re-analysis of the characteristics of possible agricultural uses of warmed water has revealed the need to decouple considerations of warmed water sources from those of warmed water users. Conflicting objectives and managerial requirements seem to preclude an integrated system approach. Rather an interface must be established with separate costs and benefits identified for a reliable warmed water source and for its various potential uses. These costs and benefits can be utilized as a basis for decisions separately by the energy supplier and the prospective energy users. A method of classifying uses of warmed water according to need, volume, objective, temperature, and quality is presented and preliminary classifications are discussed for several potential agricultural uses of warmed water. Specific uses for soil warming, space heating in greenhouses, and irrigation are noted. Specific uses in aquaculture for catfish, lobster, and prawn production are discussed. Warmed water use in animal shelters is mentioned. Low-quality heat is required for methane generation from biomass and warmed water heating could be utilized in this industry. 53 references

Surveillance for yellow Fever virus in non-human primates in southern Brazil, 2001-2011: a tool for prioritizing human populations for vaccination.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco A B Almeida

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In Brazil, epizootics among New World monkey species may indicate circulation of yellow fever (YF virus and provide early warning of risk to humans. Between 1999 and 2001, the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul initiated surveillance for epizootics of YF in non-human primates to inform vaccination of human populations. Following a YF outbreak, we analyzed epizootic surveillance data and assessed YF vaccine coverage, timeliness of implementation of vaccination in unvaccinated human populations. From October 2008 through June 2009, circulation of YF virus was confirmed in 67 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul State; vaccination was recommended in 23 (34% prior to the outbreak and in 16 (24% within two weeks of first epizootic report. In 28 (42% municipalities, vaccination began more than two weeks after first epizootic report. Eleven (52% of 21 laboratory-confirmed human YF cases occurred in two municipalities with delayed vaccination. By 2010, municipalities with confirmed YF epizootics reported higher vaccine coverage than other municipalities that began vaccination. In unvaccinated human populations timely response to epizootic events is critical to prevent human yellow fever cases.

Warm-cold colonization: response of oaks to uplift of the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Hong-Hu; Su, Tao; Gao, Xiao-Yang; Li, Jie; Jiang, Xiao-Long; Sun, Hang; Zhou, Zhe-Kun

2017-06-01

Clarifying the relationship between distribution patterns of organisms and geological events is critical to understanding the impact of environmental changes on organismal evolution. Quercus sect. Heterobalanus is now distributed across the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains (HHM) and warm lowland in East China, yet how the distribution patterns of this group changed in response to the HHM uplift remains largely unknown. This study examines the effect of tectonic events in the HHM region on the oaks, providing a biological perspective on the geological history of this region. Fifty-six populations of Quercus sect. Heterobalanus were genotyped using four chloroplast DNA regions and nine nuclear simple sequence repeat loci to assess population structure and diversity, supplemented by molecular dating and ancestral area reconstructions. The underlying demographic dynamics were compared using ecological niche models of the species distributions during the last glacial maximum and the present. These analyses illustrate that Quercus sect. Heterobalanus diversified as the HHM uplifted and climatic cooling during the mid-Miocene, colonizing the cold habitats from warm broadleaf mixed forests. Lineages in cold highlands and warm lowlands have diverged as a consequence of local adaptation to diverging climates since the late Miocene. Our results suggest that continuous uplift of the HHM in the late Miocene to early Pliocene accompanied by simultaneous cooling triggered the differentiation of oaks. The biogeography of Quercus sect. Heterobalanus illuminates the geological events responsible for the modern-day HHM. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Have historical climate changes affected Gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua populations in Antarctica?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabiola Peña M

Full Text Available The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP has been suffering an increase in its atmospheric temperature during the last 50 years, mainly associated with global warming. This increment of temperature trend associated with changes in sea-ice dynamics has an impact on organisms, affecting their phenology, physiology and distribution range. For instance, rapid demographic changes in Pygoscelis penguins have been reported over the last 50 years in WAP, resulting in population expansion of sub-Antarctic Gentoo penguin (P. papua and retreat of Antarctic Adelie penguin (P. adeliae. Current global warming has been mainly associated with human activities; however these climate trends are framed in a historical context of climate changes, particularly during the Pleistocene, characterized by an alternation between glacial and interglacial periods. During the last maximal glacial (LGM∼21,000 BP the ice sheet cover reached its maximum extension on the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP, causing local extinction of Antarctic taxa, migration to lower latitudes and/or survival in glacial refugia. We studied the HRVI of mtDNA and the nuclear intron βfibint7 of 150 individuals of the WAP to understand the demographic history and population structure of P. papua. We found high genetic diversity, reduced population genetic structure and a signature of population expansion estimated around 13,000 BP, much before the first paleocolony fossil records (∼1,100 BP. Our results suggest that the species may have survived in peri-Antarctic refugia such as South Georgia and North Sandwich islands and recolonized the Antarctic Peninsula and South Shetland Islands after the ice sheet retreat.

Have historical climate changes affected Gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua) populations in Antarctica?

Science.gov (United States)

Peña M, Fabiola; Poulin, Elie; Dantas, Gisele P M; González-Acuña, Daniel; Petry, Maria Virginia; Vianna, Juliana A

2014-01-01

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has been suffering an increase in its atmospheric temperature during the last 50 years, mainly associated with global warming. This increment of temperature trend associated with changes in sea-ice dynamics has an impact on organisms, affecting their phenology, physiology and distribution range. For instance, rapid demographic changes in Pygoscelis penguins have been reported over the last 50 years in WAP, resulting in population expansion of sub-Antarctic Gentoo penguin (P. papua) and retreat of Antarctic Adelie penguin (P. adeliae). Current global warming has been mainly associated with human activities; however these climate trends are framed in a historical context of climate changes, particularly during the Pleistocene, characterized by an alternation between glacial and interglacial periods. During the last maximal glacial (LGM∼21,000 BP) the ice sheet cover reached its maximum extension on the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), causing local extinction of Antarctic taxa, migration to lower latitudes and/or survival in glacial refugia. We studied the HRVI of mtDNA and the nuclear intron βfibint7 of 150 individuals of the WAP to understand the demographic history and population structure of P. papua. We found high genetic diversity, reduced population genetic structure and a signature of population expansion estimated around 13,000 BP, much before the first paleocolony fossil records (∼1,100 BP). Our results suggest that the species may have survived in peri-Antarctic refugia such as South Georgia and North Sandwich islands and recolonized the Antarctic Peninsula and South Shetland Islands after the ice sheet retreat.

The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, Glenn A.; Warner, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

World population is projected to reach 10.9 billion by 2100, yet nearly one-fifth of the world's current 7.2 billion live without access to electricity. Though universal energy access is desirable, a significant reduction in fossil fuel usage is required before mid-century if global warming is to be limited to <2 °C. Here we quantify the changes in the global energy mix necessary to address population and climate change under two energy-use scenarios, finding that renewable energy production (9% in 2014) must comprise 87–94% of global energy consumption by 2100. Our study suggests >50% renewable energy needs to occur by 2028 in a <2 °C warming scenario, but not until 2054 in an unconstrained energy use scenario. Given the required rate and magnitude of this transition to renewable energy, it is unlikely that the <2 °C goal can be met. Focus should be placed on expanding renewable energy as quickly as possible in order to limit warming to 2.5–3 °C. - Highlights: •World population growth, energy scarcity, and climate are interrelated issues. •Non-renewable energy sources are projected to peak around mid-century. •Renewable energy must provide 50+% of total energy by 2028 to maintain <2 °C warming goal. •Renewable energy must provide 87+% of total energy by 2100 regardless of climate concerns.

Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Copepod Abundance, Body Size and Fatty Acid Content.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica Garzke

Full Text Available Concerns about increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming have initiated studies on the consequences of multiple-stressor interactions on marine organisms and ecosystems. We present a fully-crossed factorial mesocosm study and assess how warming and acidification affect the abundance, body size, and fatty acid composition of copepods as a measure of nutritional quality. The experimental set-up allowed us to determine whether the effects of warming and acidification act additively, synergistically, or antagonistically on the abundance, body size, and fatty acid content of copepods, a major group of lower level consumers in marine food webs. Copepodite (developmental stages 1-5 and nauplii abundance were antagonistically affected by warming and acidification. Higher temperature decreased copepodite and nauplii abundance, while acidification partially compensated for the temperature effect. The abundance of adult copepods was negatively affected by warming. The prosome length of copepods was significantly reduced by warming, and the interaction of warming and CO2 antagonistically affected prosome length. Fatty acid composition was also significantly affected by warming. The content of saturated fatty acids increased, and the ratios of the polyunsaturated essential fatty acids docosahexaenoic- (DHA and arachidonic acid (ARA to total fatty acid content increased with higher temperatures. Additionally, here was a significant additive interaction effect of both parameters on arachidonic acid. Our results indicate that in a future ocean scenario, acidification might partially counteract some observed effects of increased temperature on zooplankton, while adding to others. These may be results of a fertilizing effect on phytoplankton as a copepod food source. In summary, copepod populations will be more strongly affected by warming rather than by acidifying oceans, but ocean acidification effects can modify some temperature impacts.

Fish energy budget under ocean warming and flame retardant exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Anacleto, Patrícia; Figueiredo, Cátia; Baptista, Miguel; Maulvault, Ana Luísa; Camacho, Carolina; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Valente, Luísa M P; Marques, António; Rosa, Rui

2018-07-01

warming and chemical contamination conditions, fish energy budget was greatly affected, which may dictate negative cascading impacts at population and community levels. Further research combining other climate change stressors (e.g. acidification and hypoxia) and emerging chemical contaminants are needed to better understand and forecast such biological effects in a changing ocean. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A highly variable segment of human subterminal 16p reveals a history of population growth for modern humans outside Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Alonso, Santos; Armour, John A. L.

2001-01-01

We have sequenced a highly polymorphic subterminal noncoding region from human chromosome 16p13.3, flanking the 5′ end of the hypervariable minisatellite MS205, in 100 chromosomes sampled from different African and Euroasiatic populations. Coalescence analysis indicates that the time to the most recent common ancestor (approximately 1 million years) predates the appearance of anatomically modern human forms. The root of the network describing this variability lies in Africa. African populations show a greater level of diversity and deeper branches. Most Euroasiatic variability seems to have been generated after a recent out-of-Africa range expansion. A history of population growth is the most likely scenario for the Euroasiatic populations. This pattern of nuclear variability can be reconciled with inferences based on mitochondrial DNA. PMID:11158547

Is the distribution of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus ecotypes in the Mediterranean Sea affected by global warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Mella-Flores, D.; Mazard, S.; Humily, F.; Partensky, F.; Mahé, F.; Bariat, L.; Courties, C.; Marie, D.; Ras, J.; Mauriac, R.; Jeanthon, C.; Mahdi Bendif, E.; Ostrowski, M.; Scanlan, D. J.; Garczarek, L.

2011-09-01

Biological communities populating the Mediterranean Sea, which is situated at the northern boundary of the subtropics, are often claimed to be particularly affected by global warming. This is indicated, for instance, by the introduction of (sub)tropical species of fish or invertebrates that can displace local species. This raises the question of whether microbial communities are similarly affected, especially in the Levantine basin where sea surface temperatures have significantly risen over the last 25 years (0.50 ± 0.11 °C in average per decade, P Lions and by clade III and groups genetically related to clades WPC1 and VI in the rest of the Mediterranean Sea. In contrast, only a few sequences of clade II, a group typical of warm waters, were observed. These data indicate that local cyanobacterial populations have not yet been displaced by their (sub)tropical counterparts.

Reconstructing human pancreatic differentiation by mapping specific cell populations during development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramond, Cyrille; Glaser, Nicolas; Berthault, Claire

2017-01-01

. Endocrine maturation progresses by up-regulating SUSD2 and lowering ECAD levels. Finally, in vitro differentiation of pancreatic endocrine cells derived from human pluripotent stem cells mimics key in vivo events. Our work paves the way to extend our understanding of the origin of mature human pancreatic......Information remains scarce on human development compared to animal models. Here, we reconstructed human fetal pancreatic differentiation using cell surface markers. We demonstrate that at 7weeks of development, the glycoprotein 2 (GP2) marks a multipotent cell population that will differentiate...... cell types and how such lineage decisions are regulated....

Recording human cortical population spikes non-invasively--An EEG tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Waterstraat, Gunnar; Fedele, Tommaso; Burghoff, Martin; Scheer, Hans-Jürgen; Curio, Gabriel

2015-07-30

Non-invasively recorded somatosensory high-frequency oscillations (sHFOs) evoked by electric nerve stimulation are markers of human cortical population spikes. Previously, their analysis was based on massive averaging of EEG responses. Advanced neurotechnology and optimized off-line analysis can enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of sHFOs, eventually enabling single-trial analysis. The rationale for developing dedicated low-noise EEG technology for sHFOs is unfolded. Detailed recording procedures and tailored analysis principles are explained step-by-step. Source codes in Matlab and Python are provided as supplementary material online. Combining synergistic hardware and analysis improvements, evoked sHFOs at around 600 Hz ('σ-bursts') can be studied in single-trials. Additionally, optimized spatial filters increase the signal-to-noise ratio of components at about 1 kHz ('κ-bursts') enabling their detection in non-invasive surface EEG. sHFOs offer a unique possibility to record evoked human cortical population spikes non-invasively. The experimental approaches and algorithms presented here enable also non-specialized EEG laboratories to combine measurements of conventional low-frequency EEG with the analysis of concomitant cortical population spike responses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental climate warming decreases photosynthetic efficiency of lichens in an arid South African ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Maphangwa, Khumbudzo Walter; Musil, Charles F; Raitt, Lincoln; Zedda, Luciana

2012-05-01

Elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts accompanying climate warming in arid ecosystems are expected to have adverse effects on the photosynthesis of lichen species sensitive to elevated temperature and/or water limitation. This premise was tested by artificially elevating temperatures (increase 2.1-3.8°C) and reducing the amounts of fog and dew precipitation (decrease 30.1-31.9%), in an approximation of future climate warming scenarios, using transparent hexagonal open-top warming chambers placed around natural populations of four lichen species (Xanthoparmelia austroafricana, X. hyporhytida , Xanthoparmelia. sp., Xanthomaculina hottentotta) at a dry inland site and two lichen species (Teloschistes capensis and Ramalina sp.) at a humid coastal site in the arid South African Succulent Karoo Biome. Effective photosynthetic quantum yields ([Formula: see text]) were measured hourly throughout the day at monthly intervals in pre-hydrated lichens present in the open-top warming chambers and in controls which comprised demarcated plots of equivalent open-top warming chamber dimensions constructed from 5-cm-diameter mesh steel fencing. The cumulative effects of the elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts in the open-top warming chambers resulted in significant decreases in lichen [Formula: see text]. The decreases were more pronounced in lichens from the dry inland site (decline 34.1-46.1%) than in those from the humid coastal site (decline 11.3-13.7%), most frequent and prominent in lichens at both sites during the dry summer season, and generally of greatest magnitude at or after the solar noon in all seasons. Based on these results, we conclude that climate warming interacting with reduced precipitation will negatively affect carbon balances in endemic lichens by increasing desiccation damage and reducing photosynthetic activity time, leading to increased incidences of mortality.

Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von

2013-01-01

Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming

Thermal adaptation and phenotypic plasticity in a warming world: Insights from common garden experiments on Alaskan sockeye salmon

Science.gov (United States)

Sparks, Morgan M.; Westley, Peter A. H.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Thomas P.

2017-01-01

An important unresolved question is how populations of coldwater-dependent fishes will respond to rapidly warming water temperatures. For example, the culturally and economically important group, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), experience site-specific thermal regimes during early development that could be disrupted by warming. To test for thermal local adaptation and heritable phenotypic plasticity in Pacific salmon embryos, we measured the developmental rate, survival, and body size at hatching in two populations of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) that overlap in timing of spawning but incubate in contrasting natural thermal regimes. Using a split half-sibling design, we exposed embryos of 10 families from each of two populations to variable and constant thermal regimes. These represented both experienced temperatures by each population, and predicted temperatures under plausible future conditions based on a warming scenario from the downscaled global climate model (MIROC A1B scenario). We did not find evidence of thermal local adaptation during the embryonic stage for developmental rate or survival. Within treatments, populations hatched within 1 day of each other, on average, and amongtreatments, did not differ in survival in response to temperature. We did detect plasticity to temperature; embryos developed 2.5 times longer (189 days) in the coolest regime compared to the warmest regime (74 days). We also detected variation in developmental rates among families within and among temperature regimes, indicating heritable plasticity. Families exhibited a strong positive relationship between thermal variability and phenotypic variability in developmental rate but body length and mass at hatching were largely insensitive to temperature. Overall, our results indicated a lack of thermal local adaptation, but a presence of plasticity in populations experiencing contrasting conditions, as well as family-specific heritable plasticity that could

Strategies to work with HLA data in human populations for histocompatibility, clinical transplantation, epidemiology and population genetics: HLA-NET methodological recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez-Mazas, A; Vidan-Jeras, B; Nunes, J M; Fischer, G; Little, A-M; Bekmane, U; Buhler, S; Buus, S; Claas, F H J; Dormoy, A; Dubois, V; Eglite, E; Eliaou, J F; Gonzalez-Galarza, F; Grubic, Z; Ivanova, M; Lie, B; Ligeiro, D; Lokki, M L; da Silva, B Martins; Martorell, J; Mendonça, D; Middleton, D; Voniatis, D Papioannou; Papasteriades, C; Poli, F; Riccio, M E; Vlachou, M Spyropoulou; Sulcebe, G; Tonks, S; Nevessignsky, M Toungouz; Vangenot, C; van Walraven, A-M; Tiercy, J-M

2012-12-01

HLA-NET (a European COST Action) aims at networking researchers working in bone marrow transplantation, epidemiology and population genetics to improve the molecular characterization of the HLA genetic diversity of human populations, with an expected strong impact on both public health and fundamental research. Such improvements involve finding consensual strategies to characterize human populations and samples and report HLA molecular typings and ambiguities; proposing user-friendly access to databases and computer tools and defining minimal requirements related to ethical aspects. The overall outcome is the provision of population genetic characterizations and comparisons in a standard way by all interested laboratories. This article reports the recommendations of four working groups (WG1-4) of the HLA-NET network at the mid-term of its activities. WG1 (Population definitions and sampling strategies for population genetics' analyses) recommends avoiding outdated racial classifications and population names (e.g. 'Caucasian') and using instead geographic and/or cultural (e.g. linguistic) criteria to describe human populations (e.g. 'pan-European'). A standard 'HLA-NET POPULATION DATA QUESTIONNAIRE' has been finalized and is available for the whole HLA community. WG2 (HLA typing standards for population genetics analyses) recommends retaining maximal information when reporting HLA typing results. Rather than using the National Marrow Donor Program coding system, all ambiguities should be provided by listing all allele pairs required to explain each genotype, according to the formats proposed in 'HLA-NET GUIDELINES FOR REPORTING HLA TYPINGS'. The group also suggests taking into account a preliminary list of alleles defined by polymorphisms outside the peptide-binding sites that may affect population genetic statistics because of significant frequencies. WG3 (Bioinformatic strategies for HLA population data storage and analysis) recommends the use of programs capable

Countering Ice Ages: Re-directing Public Concern from Global Warming (GW) to Global Cooling (GC)

Science.gov (United States)

Singer, S. F.

2016-02-01

I present here three arguments in favor of such a drastic shift - which involves also a shift in current policies, such as mitigation of the greenhouse (GH) gas carbon dioxide. 1. Historical evidence shows that cooling, even on a regional or local scale, is much more damaging than warming. The key threat is to agriculture, leading to failure of harvests, followed by famine, starvation, disease, and mass deaths. 2. Also, GC is reasonably sure, while GW is iffy. The evidence from deep-sea sediment cores and ice cores shows some 17 (Milankovitch-style) glaciations in the past 2 million years, each typically lasting 100,000 years, interrupted by warm inter-glacials, typically around 10,000-yr duration. The most recent glaciation ended rather suddenly about 12,000 years ago. We are now in the warm Holocene, which is expected to end soon. Most of humanity may not survive the next, inevitable glaciation. We need to consider also the warming-cooling (Dansgaard-Oeschger-Bond - DOB) cycles, which seem solar-controlled and have a period of approx 1000-1500 years; its most recent cooling phase, the "Little Ice Age" (LIA), ended about 200 years ago. For details, see Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 years by Singer &Avery [2007]. 3. Available technology seems adequate to assure human survival - at least in industrialized nations. The main threat is warfare, driven by competition for food and other essential resources. With nuclear weapons and delivery systems widely dispersed, the outcome of future wars is difficult to predict. Using geo-engineering to overcome a future cooling looks promising for both types of ice ages - with relatively low cost and low risk to the physical and biological environment. I will describe how to neutralize the "trigger" of major glaciations, and propose a particular greenhouse scheme that may counter the cooling phase of DOB cycles.

Experimental and natural warming elevates mercury concentrations in estuarine fish.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer A Dijkstra

Full Text Available Marine food webs are the most important link between the global contaminant, methylmercury (MeHg, and human exposure through consumption of seafood. Warming temperatures may increase human exposure to MeHg, a potent neurotoxin, by increasing MeHg production as well as bioaccumulation and trophic transfer through marine food webs. Studies of the effects of temperature on MeHg bioaccumulation are rare and no study has specifically related temperature to MeHg fate by linking laboratory experiments with natural field manipulations in coastal ecosystems. We performed laboratory and field experiments on MeHg accumulation under varying temperature regimes using the killifish, Fundulus heteroclitus. Temperature treatments were established in salt pools on a coastal salt marsh using a natural temperature gradient where killifish fed on natural food sources. Temperatures were manipulated across a wider range in laboratory experiments with killifish exposed to MeHg enriched food. In both laboratory microcosms and field mesocosms, MeHg concentrations in killifish significantly increased at elevated temperatures. Moreover, in field experiments, other ancillary variables (salinity, MeHg in sediment, etc. did not relate to MeHg bioaccumulation. Modeling of laboratory experimental results suggested increases in metabolic rate as a driving factor. The elevated temperatures we tested are consistent with predicted trends in climate warming, and indicate that in the absence of confounding factors, warmer sea surface temperatures could result in greater in bioaccumulation of MeHg in fish, and consequently, increased human exposure.

Human population and activities in Forsmark. Site description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miliander, Sofia; Punakivi, Mari; Kylaekorpi, Lasse; Rydgren, Bernt [SwedPower AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

2004-12-01

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) is in the process of selecting a safe and environmentally acceptable location for a deep repository of radioactive waste. Two alternative locations are under investigation. These are Forsmark, Oesthammars kommun (kommun = municipality) and Simpevarp/Laxemar, Oskarshamns kommun. SKB has expressed the importance of describing the humans and their activities in these areas and therefore has this synthesis concerning the human population in Forsmark been produced.The description is a statistical synthesis, mainly based upon statistical data from SCB (Statistics Sweden) that has been collected, processed and analysed. The statistical data has not been verified through site inspections and interviews. When using statistical data, it is advisable to note that the data becomes more unreliable if the areas are small, with small populations.The data in this description is essential for future evaluations of the impact on the environment and its human population (Environmental Impact Assessments). The data is also important when modelling the potential flows of radio nuclides and calculating the risk of exposure in future safety assessments.The actual area for the study is in this report called 'the Forsmark area', an area of 19.5 km{sup 2} near Forsmark nuclear power plant. The land use in the Forsmark area differs notably from the land use in Uppsala laen (laen = county). Only 0.04% of the total area is developed (built-up) compared to 4.9% in Uppsala laen and only 4% is agricultural land compared to 25% in the county. Furthermore, there are far more forest, wetlands and water areas in the Forsmark area. The forest area represents as much as 72.5% of the total area.The Forsmark area is uninhabited, and its surroundings are very sparsely populated. In 2002, the population density in Forsmark was 1.8 inhabitants per square kilometre, which was 24 times lower than in Uppsala laen. The population density in the

Human population and activities in Forsmark. Site description

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miliander, Sofia; Punakivi, Mari; Kylaekorpi, Lasse; Rydgren, Bernt

2004-12-01

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) is in the process of selecting a safe and environmentally acceptable location for a deep repository of radioactive waste. Two alternative locations are under investigation. These are Forsmark, Oesthammars kommun (kommun = municipality) and Simpevarp/Laxemar, Oskarshamns kommun. SKB has expressed the importance of describing the humans and their activities in these areas and therefore has this synthesis concerning the human population in Forsmark been produced.The description is a statistical synthesis, mainly based upon statistical data from SCB (Statistics Sweden) that has been collected, processed and analysed. The statistical data has not been verified through site inspections and interviews. When using statistical data, it is advisable to note that the data becomes more unreliable if the areas are small, with small populations.The data in this description is essential for future evaluations of the impact on the environment and its human population (Environmental Impact Assessments). The data is also important when modelling the potential flows of radio nuclides and calculating the risk of exposure in future safety assessments.The actual area for the study is in this report called 'the Forsmark area', an area of 19.5 km 2 near Forsmark nuclear power plant. The land use in the Forsmark area differs notably from the land use in Uppsala laen (laen = county). Only 0.04% of the total area is developed (built-up) compared to 4.9% in Uppsala laen and only 4% is agricultural land compared to 25% in the county. Furthermore, there are far more forest, wetlands and water areas in the Forsmark area. The forest area represents as much as 72.5% of the total area.The Forsmark area is uninhabited, and its surroundings are very sparsely populated. In 2002, the population density in Forsmark was 1.8 inhabitants per square kilometre, which was 24 times lower than in Uppsala laen. The population density in the parish has been

Directional dominance on stature and cognition in diverse human populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.K. Joshi (Peter); T. Esko (Tõnu); H. Mattsson (Hannele); N. Eklund (Niina); I. Gandin (Ilaria); T. Nutile; A.U. Jackson (Anne); C. Schurmann (Claudia); G.D. Smith; W. Zhang (Weihua); Y. Okada (Yukinori); A. Stancáková (Alena); J.D. Faul (Jessica D.); W. Zhao (Wei); T.M. Bartz (Traci M.); M.P. Concas (Maria Pina); N. Franceschini (Nora); S. Enroth (Stefan); V. Vitart (Veronique); S. Trompet (Stella); X. Guo (Xiuqing); D.I. Chasman (Daniel); J.R. O'Connel (Jeffrey R.); T. Corre (Tanguy); S.S. Nongmaithem (Suraj S.); Y. Chen (Yuning); M. Mangino (Massimo); D. Ruggiero; M. Traglia (Michela); A.-E. Farmaki (Aliki-Eleni); T. Kacprowski (Tim); A. Bjonnes (Andrew); A. van der Spek (Ashley); Y. Wu (Ying); A.K. Giri (Anil K.); L.R. Yanek (Lisa); L. Wang (Lihua); E. Hofer (Edith); C.A. Rietveld (Niels); O. McLeod (Olga); M. Cornelis (Marilyn); C. Pattaro (Cristian); N. Verweij (Niek); C. Baumbach (Clemens); A. Abdellaoui (Abdel); H. Warren (Helen); D. Vuckovic (Dragana); H. Mei (Hao); C. Bouchard (Claude); J.R.B. Perry (John); S. Cappellani (Stefania); S.S. Mirza (Saira); M.C. Benton (Miles C.); U. Broeckel (Ulrich); S.E. Medland (Sarah Elizabeth); P.A. Lind (Penelope); G. Malerba (Giovanni); A. Drong (Alexander); L. Yengo (Loic); L.F. Bielak (Lawrence F.); D. Zhi (Degui); P.J. van der Most (Peter); D. Shriner (Daniel); R. Mägi (Reedik); G. Hemani; T. Karaderi (Tugce); Z. Wang (Zhaoming); T. Liu (Tian); I. Demuth (Ilja); J.H. Zhao (Jing Hua); W. Meng (Weihua); L. Lataniotis (Lazaros); S.W. Van Der Laan (Sander W.); J.P. Bradfield (Jonathan); A.R. Wood (Andrew); A. Bonnefond (Amélie); T.S. Ahluwalia (Tarunveer Singh); L.M. Hall (Leanne M.); E. Salvi (Erika); S. Yazar (Seyhan); L. Carstensen (Lisbeth); H.G. De Haan (Hugoline G.); M. Abney (Mark); U. Afzal (Uzma); M.A. Allison (Matthew); N. Amin (Najaf); F.W. Asselbergs (Folkert W.); S.J.L. Bakker (Stephan); R.G. Barr (Graham); S.E. Baumeister (Sebastian); D.J. Benjamin (Daniel J.); S. Bergmann (Sven); E.A. Boerwinkle (Eric); E.P. Bottinger (Erwin P.); A. Campbell (Archie); A. Chakravarti (Aravinda); Y. Chan (Yingleong); S.J. Chanock (Stephen); C. Chen (Constance); Y.-D.I. Chen (Y.-D. Ida); F.S. Collins (Francis); J. Connell (John); A. Correa (Adolfo); L.A. Cupples (Adrienne); G.D. Smith; G. Davies (Gail); M. Dörr (Marcus); G.B. Ehret (Georg); S.B. Ellis (Stephen B.); B. Feenstra (Bjarke); M.F. Feitosa (Mary Furlan); I. Ford; C.S. Fox (Caroline); T.M. Frayling (Timothy); N. Friedrich (Nele); F. Geller (Frank); G. Scotland (Generation); I. Gillham-Nasenya (Irina); R.F. Gottesman (Rebecca); M.J. Graff (Maud J.L.); F. Grodstein (Francine); C. Gu (Charles); C. Haley (Chris); C.J. Hammond (Christopher); S.E. Harris (Sarah); T.B. Harris (Tamara); N. Hastie (Nick); N.L. Heard-Costa (Nancy); K. Heikkilä (Kauko); L.J. Hocking (Lynne); G. Homuth (Georg); J.J. Hottenga (Jouke Jan); J. Huang (Jian); J.E. Huffman (Jennifer); P.G. Hysi (Pirro); M.A. Ikram (Arfan); E. Ingelsson (Erik); A. Joensuu (Anni); A. Johansson (Åsa); P. Jousilahti (Pekka); J.W. Jukema (Jan Wouter); M. Kähönen (Mika); Y. Kamatani (Yoichiro); S. Kanoni (Stavroula); S.M. Kerr (Shona); N.M. Khan (Nazir M.); Ph.D. Koellinger (Philipp); H.A. Koistinen (Heikki A.); M.K. Kooner (Manraj K.); M. Kubo (Michiaki); J. Kuusisto (Johanna); J. Lahti (Jari); L.J. Launer (Lenore); R.A. Lea (Rodney A.); B. Lehne (Benjamin); T. Lehtimäki (Terho); D.C. Liewald (David C.); L. Lind (Lars); M. Loh (Marie); M.L. Lokki; S.J. London (Stephanie J.); S.J. Loomis (Stephanie J.); A. Loukola (Anu); Y. Lu (Yingchang); T. Lumley (Thomas); A. Lundqvist (Annamari); S. Männistö (Satu); P. Marques-Vidal (Pedro); C. Masciullo (Corrado); A. Matchan (Angela); J. Mathias (Jasmine); K. Matsuda (Koichi); J.B. Meigs (James); C. Meisinger (Christa); T. Meitinger (Thomas); C. Menni (Cristina); F.D. Mentch (Frank); E. Mihailov (Evelin); L. Milani (Lili); M.E. Montasser (May E.); G.W. Montgomery (Grant); A.C. Morrison (Alanna); R.H. Myers (Richard); R. Nadukuru (Rajiv); P. Navarro (Pau); M. Nalis (Mari); M.S. Nieminen (Markku S.); I.M. Nolte (Ilja M.); G.T. O'Connor (George); A. Ogunniyi (Adesola); S. Padmanabhan (Sandosh); W. Palmas (Walter); J.S. Pankow (James); I. Patarcic (Inga); F. Pavani (Francesca); P.A. Peyser (Patricia A.); K.H. Pietilainen (Kirsi Hannele); N.R. Poulter (Neil); I. Prokopenko (Inga); S. Ralhan (Sarju); P. Redmond (Paul); S.S. Rich (Stephen S.); H. Rissanen (Harri); A. Robino (Antonietta); L.M. Rose (Lynda M.); R.J. Rose (Richard J.); C. Sala (Cinzia); B. Salako (Babatunde); V. Salomaa (Veikko); A.-P. Sarin; R. Saxena (Richa); R. Schmidt (Reinhold); L.J. Scott (Laura); W.R. Scott (William R.); B. Sennblad (Bengt); S. Seshadri (Sudha); P. Sever (Peter); S. Shrestha (Smeeta); B.H. Smith (Blair); J.A. Smith (Jennifer A); N. Soranzo (Nicole); N. Sotoodehnia (Nona); L. Southam (Lorraine); A. Stanton (Alice); M.G. Stathopoulou (Maria G); K. Strauch (Konstantin); R.J. Strawbridge (Rona); M.J. Suderman (Matthew J.); N. Tandon (Nikhil); S.-T. Tang (Sian-Tsun); K.D. Taylor (Kent D.); B. Tayo (Bamidele); A.M. Töglhofer (Anna Maria); M. Tomaszewski (Maciej); N. Tsernikova (Natalia); J. Tuomilehto (Jaakko); A.G. Uitterlinden (André); D. Vaidya (Dhananjay); A. van Hylckama Vlieg (Astrid); J. van Setten (Jessica); T. Vasankari (Tuula); S. Vedantam (Sailaja); E. Vlachopoulou (Efthymia); D. Vozzi (Diego); E. Vuoksimaa (Eero); M. Waldenberger (Melanie); E.B. Ware (Erin B.); W. Wentworth-Shields (William); J. Whitfield (John); S. Wild (Sarah); G.A.H.M. Willemsen (Gonneke); C.S. Yajnik (Chittaranjan S.); J. Yao (Jie); G. Zaza (Gianluigi); X. Zhu (Xiaofeng); R.M. Salem (Rany); M. Melbye (Mads); H. Bisgaard (Hans); N.J. Samani (Nilesh); D. Cusi (Daniele); D.A. Mackey (David A.); R.S. Cooper (Richard S.); P. Froguel (Philippe); G. Pasterkamp (Gerard); S.F.A. Grant (Struan F.A.); H. Hakonarson (Hakon); L. Ferrucci (Luigi); R.A. Scott (Robert); A.D. Morris (Andrew); C.N.A. Palmer (Colin); G.V. Dedoussis (George V.); P. Deloukas (Panagiotis); L. Bertram (Lars); U. Lindenberger (Ulman); S.I. Berndt (Sonja); C.M. Lindgren (Cecilia); N.J. Timpson (Nicholas); A. Tönjes (Anke); P. Munroe (Patricia); T.I.A. Sørensen (Thorkild I.A.); C. Rotimi (Charles); D.K. Arnett (Donna); A.J. Oldehinkel (Albertine); S.L.R. Kardia (Sharon); B. Balkau (Beverley); G. Gambaro (Giovanni); A.P. Morris (Andrew); J.G. Eriksson (Johan G.); M.J. Wright (Margaret); N.G. Martin (Nicholas); S.C. Hunt (Steven); J.M. Starr (John); I.J. Deary (Ian J.); L.R. Griffiths (Lyn R.); H.W. Tiemeier (Henning); N. Pirastu (Nicola); J. Kaprio (Jaakko); N.J. Wareham (Nick); L. Perusse (Louis); J.G. Wilson (James); S. Girotto; M. Caulfield (Mark); O.T. Raitakari (Olli T.); D.I. Boomsma (Dorret); C. Gieger (Christian); P. van der Harst; A.A. Hicks (Andrew); P. Kraft (Peter); J. Sinisalo (Juha); P. Knekt; M. Johannesson (Magnus); P.K.E. Magnusson (Patrik K. E.); A. Hamsten (Anders); R. Schmidt (Reinhold); I.B. Borecki (Ingrid); E. Vartiainen (Erkki); D.M. Becker (Diane); D. Bharadwaj (Dwaipayan); K.L. Mohlke (Karen); M. Boehnke (Michael); C.M. van Duijn (Cornelia); D.K. Sanghera (Dharambir); A. Teumer (Alexander); E. Zeggini (Eleftheria); A. Metspalu (Andres); P. Gasparini (Paolo); S. Ulivi (Shelia); C. Ober (Carole); D. Toniolo (Daniela); I. Rudan (Igor); D.J. Porteous (David J.); M. Ciullo; T.D. Spector (Timothy); C. Hayward (Caroline); J. Dupuis (Josée); R.J.F. Loos (Ruth); A. Wright (Alan); G.R. Chandak (Giriraj); P. Vollenweider (Peter); A.R. Shuldiner (Alan); P.M. Ridker (Paul); J.I. Rotter (Jerome I.); N. Sattar (Naveed); U. Gyllensten (Ulf); K.E. North (Kari); M. Pirastu (Mario); B.M. Psaty (Bruce); D.R. Weir (David); M. Laakso (Markku); V. Gudnason (Vilmundur); A. Takahashi (Atsushi); J.C. Chambers (John C.); J.S. Kooner (Jaspal S.); D.P. Strachan (David P.); H. Campbell (Harry); J.N. Hirschhorn (Joel N.); M. Perola (Markus); O. Polasek (Ozren); J.F. Wilson (James)

2015-01-01

textabstractHomozygosity has long been associated with rare, often devastating, Mendelian disorders, and Darwin was one of the first to recognize that inbreeding reduces evolutionary fitness. However, the effect of the more distant parental relatedness that is common in modern human populations is

Moderate ocean warming mitigates, but more extreme warming exacerbates the impacts of zinc from engineered nanoparticles on a marine larva.

Science.gov (United States)

Mos, Benjamin; Kaposi, Katrina L; Rose, Andrew L; Kelaher, Brendan; Dworjanyn, Symon A

2017-09-01

There is growing concern about the combined effects of multiple human-induced stressors on biodiversity. In particular, there are substantial knowledge gaps about the combined effects of existing stressors (e.g. pollution) and predicted environmental stress from climate change (e.g. ocean warming). We investigated the impacts of ocean warming and engineered nanoparticles (nano-zinc oxide, nZnO) on larvae of a cosmopolitan tropical sea urchin, Tripneustes gratilla. Larval T. gratilla were exposed to all combinations of three temperatures, 25, 27 and 29 °C (current SST and near-future predicted warming of +2 and + 4 °C) and six concentrations of nZnO (0, 0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1 and 10 mg nZnO·L -1 ). These stressors had strong interactive effects on fertilization, gastrulation and normal development of 5 day old larvae. High concentrations of nZnO had a negative effect, but this impact was less pronounced for sea urchins reared at their preferred temperature of 27 °C compared to 25 or 29 °C. Larval growth was also impacted by combined stress of elevated temperature and nZnO. Subsequent measurement of the dissolution and aggregation of nZnO particles and the direct effect of Zn 2+ ions on larvae, suggest the negative effects of nZnO on larval development and growth were most likely due to Zn 2+ ions. Our results demonstrate that marine larvae may be more resilient to stressors at optimal temperatures and highlight the potential for ocean warming to exacerbate the effects of pollution on marine larvae. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ocean acidification but not warming alters sex determination in the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Laura M; O'Connor, Wayne A; Byrne, Maria; Dove, Michael; Coleman, Ross A; Pörtner, Hans-O; Scanes, Elliot; Virtue, Patti; Gibbs, Mitchell; Ross, Pauline M

2018-02-14

Whether sex determination of marine organisms can be altered by ocean acidification and warming during this century remains a significant, unanswered question. Here, we show that exposure of the protandric hermaphrodite oyster, Saccostrea glomerata to ocean acidification, but not warming, alters sex determination resulting in changes in sex ratios. After just one reproductive cycle there were 16% more females than males. The rate of gametogenesis, gonad area, fecundity, shell length, extracellular pH and survival decreased in response to ocean acidification. Warming as a sole stressor slightly increased the rate of gametogenesis, gonad area and fecundity, but this increase was masked by the impact of ocean acidification at a level predicted for this century. Alterations to sex determination, sex ratios and reproductive capacity will have flow on effects to reduce larval supply and population size of oysters and potentially other marine organisms. © 2018 The Author(s).

Role of natural radiations in human leukemogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobson, A.P.; Plato, P.A.; Frigerio, N.A.

1976-01-01

Some 3 billion years ago, life arose from a warm pool of primordial ooze amid a constant drizzle of radiation. Steadily, man evolved from the lesser forms of life because of or in spite of his natural background-radiation environment. This study is an attempt to determine to what extent these background radiations are responsible for human disease, namely leukemia. Dose rate data were compared with data on all forms of leukemia in the 50 United States for four population subgroups. For the total U. S., no relation between background radiation and leukemia is apparent. A positive correlation appears, however, if various states are deleted from the analysis. It appears that conditions relative to populations and their environment could mask a radiation effect if in fact one is present

Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

2014-10-01

We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

Global warming: the complete briefing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Houghton, J

1994-01-01

The science of global warming, its impacts, and what action might be taken, are described in this book, in a way which the intelligent non-scientist can understand. It also examines ethical and moral issues of concern about global warming, considering mankind as stewards of the earth. Chapter headings of the book are: global warming and climate change; the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse gases; climates of the past; modelling the climate; climate change and business-as-usual; the impacts of climate change; why should we be concerned ; weighing the uncertainty; action to slow and stabilize climate change; energy and transport for the future; and the global village.

Warm Bodies: A Student Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Schario, Tracy A.

A participant in forensic tournament competition presents her perspective as well as overall student reaction to the function of "warm bodies," competitors who are entered in a tournament by the coach or tournament director only to meet qualifying requirements. Overall, participants in an informal survey believed that the warm body…

Warm Absorber Diagnostics of AGN Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Kallman, Timothy

Warm absorbers and related phenomena are observable manifestations of outflows or winds from active galactic nuclei (AGN) that have great potential value. Understanding AGN outflows is important for explaining the mass budgets of the central accreting black hole, and also for understanding feedback and the apparent co-evolution of black holes and their host galaxies. In the X-ray band warm absorbers are observed as photoelectric absorption and resonance line scattering features in the 0.5-10 keV energy band; the UV band also shows resonance line absorption. Warm absorbers are common in low luminosity AGN and they have been extensively studied observationally. They may play an important role in AGN feedback, regulating the net accretion onto the black hole and providing mechanical energy to the surroundings. However, fundamental properties of the warm absorbers are not known: What is the mechanism which drives the outflow?; what is the gas density in the flow and the geometrical distribution of the outflow?; what is the explanation for the apparent relation between warm absorbers and the surprising quasi-relativistic 'ultrafast outflows' (UFOs)? We propose a focused set of model calculations that are aimed at synthesizing observable properties of warm absorber flows and associated quantities. These will be used to explore various scenarios for warm absorber dynamics in order to answer the questions in the previous paragraph. The guiding principle will be to examine as wide a range as possible of warm absorber driving mechanisms, geometry and other properties, but with as careful consideration as possible to physical consistency. We will build on our previous work, which was a systematic campaign for testing important class of scenarios for driving the outflows. We have developed a set of tools that are unique and well suited for dynamical calculations including radiation in this context. We also have state-of-the-art tools for generating synthetic spectra, which are

Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

2009-12-01

The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

Directional dominance on stature and cognition in diverse human populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Joshi, Peter K.; Esko, Tonu; Mattsson, Hannele; Eklund, Niina; Gandin, Ilaria; Nutile, Teresa; Jackson, Anne U.; Schurmann, Claudia; Smith, Albert V.; Zhang, Weihua; Okada, Yukinori; Stancakova, Alena; Faul, Jessica D.; Zhao, Wei; Bartz, Traci M.; Concas, Maria Pina; Franceschini, Nora; Enroth, Stefan; Vitart, Veronique; Trompet, Stella; Guo, Xiuqing; Chasman, Daniel I.; O'Connel, Jeffrey R.; Corre, Tanguy; Nongmaithem, Suraj S.; Chen, Yuning; Mangino, Massimo; Ruggiero, Daniela; Traglia, Michela; Farmaki, Aliki-Eleni; Kacprowski, Tim; Bjonnes, Andrew; van der Spek, Ashley; Wu, Ying; Giri, Anil K.; Yanek, Lisa R.; Wang, Lihua; Hofer, Edith; Rietveld, Cornelius A.; McLeod, Olga; Cornelis, Marilyn C.; Pattaro, Cristian; Verweij, Niek; Baumbach, Clemens; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Warren, Helen R.; Vuckovic, Dragana; Mei, Hao; Bouchard, Claude; Perry, John R. B.; Cappellani, Stefania; Mirza, Saira S.; Benton, Miles C.; Broeckel, Ulrich; Medland, Sarah E.; Lind, PenelopeA.; Malerba, Giovanni; Drong, Alexander; Yengo, Loic; Bielak, Lawrence F.; Zhi, Degui; van der Most, Peter J.; Shriner, Daniel; Maegi, Reedik; Hemani, Gibran; Karaderi, Tugce; Wang, Zhaoming; Liu, Tian; Demuth, Ilja; Zhao, Jing Hua; Meng, Weihua; Lataniotis, Lazaros; van der Laan, Sander W.; Bradfield, Jonathan P.; Wood, Andrew R.; Bonnefond, Amelie; Ahluwalia, Tarunveer S.; Hall, LeanneM.; Salvi, Erika; Yazar, Seyhan; Carstensen, Lisbeth; de Haan, Hugoline G.; Abney, Mark; Afzal, Uzma; Allison, Matthew A.; Amin, Najaf; Asselbergs, Folkert W.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Barr, R. Graham; Baumeister, Sebastian E.; Benjamin, Daniel J.; Bergmann, Sven; Boerwinkle, Eric; Bottinger, Erwin P.; Campbell, Archie; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Chan, Yingleong; Chanock, Stephen J.; Chen, Constance; Chen, Y. -D. Ida; Collins, Francis S.; Connell, John; Correa, Adolfo; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Smith, George Davey; Davies, Gail; Doerr, Marcus; Ehret, Georg; Ellis, Stephen B.; Feenstra, Bjarke; Feitosa, Mary F.; Ford, Ian; Fox, Caroline S.; Frayling, Timothy M.; Friedrich, Nele; Geller, Frank; Scotland, Generation; Gillham-Nasenya, Irina; Gottesman, Omri; Graff, Misa; Grodstein, Francine; Gu, Charles; Haley, Chris; Hammond, Christopher J.; Harris, Sarah E.; Harris, Tamara B.; Hastie, Nicholas D.; Heard-Costa, Nancy L.; Heikkila, Kauko; Hocking, Lynne J.; Homuth, Georg; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Huang, Jinyan; Huffman, Jennifer E.; Hysi, Pirro G.; Ikram, M. Arfan; Ingelsson, Erik; Joensuu, Anni; Johansson, Asa; Jousilahti, Pekka; Jukema, J. Wouter; Kahonen, Mika; Kamatani, Yoichiro; Kanoni, Stavroula; Kerr, Shona M.; Khan, Nazir M.; Koellinger, Philipp; Koistinen, Heikki A.; Kooner, Manraj K.; Kubo, Michiaki; Kuusisto, Johanna; Lahti, Jari; Launer, Lenore J.; Lea, Rodney A.; Lehne, Benjamin; Lehtimaki, Terho; Liewald, David C. M.; Lind, Lars; Loh, Marie; Lokki, Marja-Liisa; London, Stephanie J.; Loomis, Stephanie J.; Loukola, Anu; Lu, Yingchang; Lumley, Thomas; Lundqvist, Annamari; Mannisto, Satu; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Masciullo, Corrado; Matchan, Angela; Mathias, Rasika A.; Matsuda, Koichi; Meigs, James B.; Meisinger, Christa; Meitinger, Thomas; Menni, Cristina; Mentch, Frank D.; Mihailov, Evelin; Milani, Lili; Montasser, May E.; Montgomery, GrantW.; Morrison, Alanna; Myers, Richard H.; Nadukuru, Rajiv; Navarro, Pau; Nelis, Mari; Nieminen, Markku S.; Nolte, Ilja M.; O'Connor, George T.; Ogunniyi, Adesola; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Palmas, Walter R.; Pankow, James S.; Patarcic, Inga; Pavani, Francesca; Peyser, Patricia A.; Pietilainen, Kirsi; Poulter, Neil; Prokopenko, Inga; Ralhan, Sarju; Redmond, Paul; Rich, Stephen S.; Rissanen, Harri; Robino, Antonietta; Rose, Lynda M.; Rose, Richard; Sala, Cinzia; Salako, Babatunde; Salomaa, Veikko; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Saxena, Richa; Schmidt, Helena; Scott, Laura J.; Scott, William R.; Sennblad, Bengt; Seshadri, Sudha; Sever, Peter; Shrestha, Smeeta; Smith, Blair H.; Smith, Jennifer A.; Soranzo, Nicole; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Southam, Lorraine; Stanton, Alice V.; Stathopoulou, Maria G.; Strauch, Konstantin; Strawbridge, Rona J.; Suderman, Matthew J.; Tandon, Nikhil; Tang, Sian-Tsun; Taylor, Kent D.; Tayo, Bamidele O.; Toeglhofer, Anna Maria; Tomaszewski, Maciej; Tsernikova, Natalia; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Vaidya, Dhananjay; Vlieg, Astrid van Hylckama; van Setten, Jessica; Vasankari, Tuula; Vedantam, Sailaja; Vlachopoulou, Efthymia; Vozzi, Diego; Vuoksimaa, Eero; Waldenberger, Melanie; Ware, Erin B.; Wentworth-Shields, William; Whitfield, John B.; Wild, Sarah; Willemsen, Gonneke; Yajnik, Chittaranjan S.; Yao, Jie; Zaza, Gianluigi; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Salem, Rany M.; Melbye, Mads; Bisgaard, Hans; Samani, Nilesh J.; Cusi, Daniele; Mackey, David A.; Cooper, Richard S.; Froguel, Philippe; Pasterkamp, Gerard; Grant, Struan F. A.; Hakonarson, Hakon; Ferrucci, Luigi; Scott, Robert A.; Morris, Andrew D.; Palmer, Colin N. A.; Dedoussis, George; Deloukas, Panos; Bertram, Lars; Lindenberger, Ulman; Berndt, Sonja I.; Lindgren, Cecilia M.; Timpson, Nicholas J.; Toenjes, Anke; Munroe, Patricia B.; Sorensen, Thorkild I. A.; Rotimi, Charles N.; Arnett, Donna K.; Oldehinkel, Albertine J.; Kardia, Sharon L. R.; Balkau, Beverley; Gambaro, Giovanni; Morris, Andrew P.; Eriksson, Johan G.; Wright, Margie J.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Hunt, Steven C.; Starr, John M.; Deary, Ian J.; Griffiths, Lyn R.; Tiemeier, Henning; Pirastu, Nicola; Kaprio, Jaakko; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Perusse, Louis; Wilson, James G.; Girotto, Giorgia; Caulfield, Mark J.; Raitakari, Olli; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Gieger, Christian; van der Harst, Pim; Hicks, Andrew A.; Kraft, Peter; Sinisalo, Juha; Knekt, Paul; Johannesson, Magnus; Magnusson, Patrik K. E.; Hamsten, Anders; Schmidt, Reinhold; Borecki, Ingrid B.; Vartiainen, Erkki; Becker, Diane M.; Bharadwaj, Dwaipayan; Mohlke, Karen L.; Boehnke, Michael; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Sanghera, Dharambir K.; Teumer, Alexander; Zeggini, Eleftheria; Metspalu, Andres; Gasparini, Paolo; Ulivi, Sheila; Ober, Carole; Toniolo, Daniela; Rudan, Igor; Porteous, David J.; Ciullo, Marina; Spector, Tim D.; Hayward, Caroline; Dupuis, Josee; Loos, Ruth J. F.; Wright, Alan F.; Chandak, Giriraj R.; Vollenweider, Peter; Shuldiner, Alan R.; Ridker, Paul M.; Rotter, Jerome I.; Sattar, Naveed; Gyllensten, Ulf; North, Kari E.; Pirastu, Mario; Psaty, Bruce M.; Weir, David R.; Laakso, Markku; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Takahashi, Atsushi; Chambers, John C.; Kooner, Jaspal S.; Strachan, David P.; Campbell, Harry; Hirschhorn, Joel N.; Perola, Markus; Polasek, Ozren; Wilson, James F.

2015-01-01

Homozygosity has long been associated with rare, often devastating, Mendelian disorders(1), and Darwin was one of the first to recognize that inbreeding reduces evolutionary fitness(2). However, the effect of the more distant parental relatedness that is common in modern human populations is less

Radiation exposure and radiation hazards of human population. Pt. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobi, W.

1982-01-01

The present Part I provides a survey on the various sources of natural and artificial radiation exposure of human population. Furthermore, biological radiation effects and radiation damages are surveyed. In an appendix, radiation types, radiation doses, and radiation dose units are explained. (orig./GSCH) [de

Evolution determines how global warming and pesticide exposure will shape predator-prey interactions with vector mosquitoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Tam T; Janssens, Lizanne; Dinh, Khuong V; Op de Beeck, Lin; Stoks, Robby

2016-07-01

How evolution may mitigate the effects of global warming and pesticide exposure on predator-prey interactions is directly relevant for vector control. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we addressed how 4°C warming and exposure to the pesticide endosulfan shape the predation on Culex pipiens mosquitoes by damselfly predators from replicated low- and high-latitude populations. Although warming was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates on these prey. Possibly, under warming escape speeds of the mosquitoes increased more than the attack efficiency of the predators. Endosulfan imposed mortality and induced behavioral changes (including increased filtering and thrashing and a positional shift away from the bottom) in mosquito larvae. Although the pesticide was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates by the low-latitude predators. This can be explained by the combination of the evolution of a faster life history and associated higher vulnerabilities to the pesticide (in terms of growth rate and lowered foraging activity) in the low-latitude predators and pesticide-induced survival selection in the mosquitoes. Our results suggest that predation rates on mosquitoes at the high latitude will be reduced under warming unless predators evolve toward the current low-latitude phenotype or low-latitude predators move poleward.

The Philippine Parliamentarians Conference on Human Survival, Population and Development. Summary.

Science.gov (United States)

1988-12-01

Proceedings of the 1st Philippine Parliamentarians' Conference on Human Survival, Population and Development (PARLCON '88) are summarized in this report. Conference participants included the House and Senate, government officials, representatives of nongovernmental organizations, international organizations, the diplomatic corps and the media. A message from the President was read, referring the "silent emergency" of malnutrition and infant mortality of over 100,000 yearly. The events taking place were a statement of objectives, a Senate Resolution welcoming the convening of the conference, an opening ceremony, a posthumous award to R. M. Sales, executive director of the UNFPA, and a final a plan of action. Much of the content of the above events was duplicated in the final plan, which was formulated in 17 points. Some of these key points were: recognition of the need for quality of life, the detrimental effect of rapid population growth on development, the right of spouses to plan family size within their ethical beliefs, and the need for political will to address development concerns. The conference recommended that parliament and local governments strive for a consensus on national policy regarding population; ensure that economic gains are not decimated by population growth, protect the environment, develop social and industrial infrastructure in outlying areas, pursue national self-reliance, promote the human right of choosing desired family size, endorse the small family norm, empower women by educational and income generating opportunities, gather national data on population, strengthen the Population Commission, support nongovernmental agencies that provide family planning services, and promote education on family planning.

The physics and history of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu Yongyun

2012-01-01

Global warming is not only a hot research area in atmospheric sciences and even all Earth sciences but is also a controversial topic in the international community. The purpose of this paper is not to clarify these controversies, but instead, to address the physical basis on which our understanding of global warming is founded, and to briefly review the nearly 200-year history of global warming sciences. We hope the paper will help readers, who have no background in the atmospheric and climate sciences, understand scientific issues of global warming. (author)

Population connectivity of an overexploited coastal fish ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Sciaenidae), in an ocean-warming hotspot. ... in this global hotspot of seawater temperature changes. Keywords: Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone, climate change, demographic history, marine fisheries, molecular ecology, population structure ...

Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

Science.gov (United States)

Stampfer, Martha R; Garbe, James C

2015-02-24

Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

An Analysis of Historical Global Warming and Social Engagement

OpenAIRE

Train, Joseph; Roizenman, David; Damiani, Seth; Rochwerg, Ronny

2018-01-01

The goal of this paper is to determine whether there is a correlation between awareness of global warming, and where global warming occurs. This theory is carried out by analyzing maps containing various forms of data that have to do with global warming, such as precipitation and surface temperature, and comparing it with a map of engagement from tweets which mention global warming. This paper found that there is no solid correlation between mentioning global warming in tweets and global warm...

Review: Effect of global warming on plant evolution and diversity; lessons from the past and its potential recurrence in the future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Setyawan AD. 2009. Effect of global warming on plant evolution and diversity; lessons from the past and its potential recurrence in the future. Nusantara Bioscience 1: 43-52. Lessons from the past shows that global warming and glaciation is a natural cycle of repeated, the trigger factor is not always the same, but global warming is always accompanied by elevated levels of CO2 and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which cause the other rising global temperatures. Present and destruction of various plants and other living makhluh continue to happen from time to time. Every era has its own life form, as a mirror of global environmental conditions at the time. Biodiversity is not always the same between one period of global warming are with the next global warming, or one period of glaciation that one with the next glaciation, although new breeds always show traces the evolution of his ancestors. Man is one of the agents of global warming that began with the development of agricultural systems since 8000 years ago. The impact of climate change due to global warming should continue to be wary of. Based on past experience, global warming is always followed by mass extinctions, but various forms of life will still survive even though its shape is almost certainly not the same as before. Living organisms can survive it will evolve into new taxa that are different from its parental taxa. Humans who were present at that time probably were not a men who are present at this time, given Homo sapiens may have been extinct for not being able to adapt or otherwise has evolved into a new man who may no longer shows characteristics of human wisdom.

Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Mauritsen, Thorsten

2016-12-01

The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.

Genome-wide detection and characterization of positive selection in human populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabeti, Pardis C; Varilly, Patrick; Fry, Ben; Lohmueller, Jason; Hostetter, Elizabeth; Cotsapas, Chris; Xie, Xiaohui; Byrne, Elizabeth H; McCarroll, Steven A; Gaudet, Rachelle; Schaffner, Stephen F; Lander, Eric S; Frazer, Kelly A; Ballinger, Dennis G; Cox, David R; Hinds, David A; Stuve, Laura L; Gibbs, Richard A; Belmont, John W; Boudreau, Andrew; Hardenbol, Paul; Leal, Suzanne M; Pasternak, Shiran; Wheeler, David A; Willis, Thomas D; Yu, Fuli; Yang, Huanming; Zeng, Changqing; Gao, Yang; Hu, Haoran; Hu, Weitao; Li, Chaohua; Lin, Wei; Liu, Siqi; Pan, Hao; Tang, Xiaoli; Wang, Jian; Wang, Wei; Yu, Jun; Zhang, Bo; Zhang, Qingrun; Zhao, Hongbin; Zhao, Hui; Zhou, Jun; Gabriel, Stacey B; Barry, Rachel; Blumenstiel, Brendan; Camargo, Amy; Defelice, Matthew; Faggart, Maura; Goyette, Mary; Gupta, Supriya; Moore, Jamie; Nguyen, Huy; Onofrio, Robert C; Parkin, Melissa; Roy, Jessica; Stahl, Erich; Winchester, Ellen; Ziaugra, Liuda; Altshuler, David; Shen, Yan; Yao, Zhijian; Huang, Wei; Chu, Xun; He, Yungang; Jin, Li; Liu, Yangfan; Shen, Yayun; Sun, Weiwei; Wang, Haifeng; Wang, Yi; Wang, Ying; Xiong, Xiaoyan; Xu, Liang; Waye, Mary M Y; Tsui, Stephen K W; Xue, Hong; Wong, J Tze-Fei; Galver, Luana M; Fan, Jian-Bing; Gunderson, Kevin; Murray, Sarah S; Oliphant, Arnold R; Chee, Mark S; Montpetit, Alexandre; Chagnon, Fanny; Ferretti, Vincent; Leboeuf, Martin; Olivier, Jean-François; Phillips, Michael S; Roumy, Stéphanie; Sallée, Clémentine; Verner, Andrei; Hudson, Thomas J; Kwok, Pui-Yan; Cai, Dongmei; Koboldt, Daniel C; Miller, Raymond D; Pawlikowska, Ludmila; Taillon-Miller, Patricia; Xiao, Ming; Tsui, Lap-Chee; Mak, William; Song, You Qiang; Tam, Paul K H; Nakamura, Yusuke; Kawaguchi, Takahisa; Kitamoto, Takuya; Morizono, Takashi; Nagashima, Atsushi; Ohnishi, Yozo; Sekine, Akihiro; Tanaka, Toshihiro; Tsunoda, Tatsuhiko; Deloukas, Panos; Bird, Christine P; Delgado, Marcos; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil T; Gwilliam, Rhian; Hunt, Sarah; Morrison, Jonathan; Powell, Don; Stranger, Barbara E; Whittaker, Pamela; Bentley, David R; Daly, Mark J; de Bakker, Paul I W; Barrett, Jeff; Chretien, Yves R; Maller, Julian; McCarroll, Steve; Patterson, Nick; Pe'er, Itsik; Price, Alkes; Purcell, Shaun; Richter, Daniel J; Sabeti, Pardis; Saxena, Richa; Schaffner, Stephen F; Sham, Pak C; Varilly, Patrick; Altshuler, David; Stein, Lincoln D; Krishnan, Lalitha; Smith, Albert Vernon; Tello-Ruiz, Marcela K; Thorisson, Gudmundur A; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Chen, Peter E; Cutler, David J; Kashuk, Carl S; Lin, Shin; Abecasis, Gonçalo R; Guan, Weihua; Li, Yun; Munro, Heather M; Qin, Zhaohui Steve; Thomas, Daryl J; McVean, Gilean; Auton, Adam; Bottolo, Leonardo; Cardin, Niall; Eyheramendy, Susana; Freeman, Colin; Marchini, Jonathan; Myers, Simon; Spencer, Chris; Stephens, Matthew; Donnelly, Peter; Cardon, Lon R; Clarke, Geraldine; Evans, David M; Morris, Andrew P; Weir, Bruce S; Tsunoda, Tatsuhiko; Johnson, Todd A; Mullikin, James C; Sherry, Stephen T; Feolo, Michael; Skol, Andrew; Zhang, Houcan; Zeng, Changqing; Zhao, Hui; Matsuda, Ichiro; Fukushima, Yoshimitsu; Macer, Darryl R; Suda, Eiko; Rotimi, Charles N; Adebamowo, Clement A; Ajayi, Ike; Aniagwu, Toyin; Marshall, Patricia A; Nkwodimmah, Chibuzor; Royal, Charmaine D M; Leppert, Mark F; Dixon, Missy; Peiffer, Andy; Qiu, Renzong; Kent, Alastair; Kato, Kazuto; Niikawa, Norio; Adewole, Isaac F; Knoppers, Bartha M; Foster, Morris W; Clayton, Ellen Wright; Watkin, Jessica; Gibbs, Richard A; Belmont, John W; Muzny, Donna; Nazareth, Lynne; Sodergren, Erica; Weinstock, George M; Wheeler, David A; Yakub, Imtaz; Gabriel, Stacey B; Onofrio, Robert C; Richter, Daniel J; Ziaugra, Liuda; Birren, Bruce W; Daly, Mark J; Altshuler, David; Wilson, Richard K; Fulton, Lucinda L; Rogers, Jane; Burton, John; Carter, Nigel P; Clee, Christopher M; Griffiths, Mark; Jones, Matthew C; McLay, Kirsten; Plumb, Robert W; Ross, Mark T; Sims, Sarah K; Willey, David L; Chen, Zhu; Han, Hua; Kang, Le; Godbout, Martin; Wallenburg, John C; L'Archevêque, Paul; Bellemare, Guy; Saeki, Koji; Wang, Hongguang; An, Daochang; Fu, Hongbo; Li, Qing; Wang, Zhen; Wang, Renwu; Holden, Arthur L; Brooks, Lisa D; McEwen, Jean E; Guyer, Mark S; Wang, Vivian Ota; Peterson, Jane L; Shi, Michael; Spiegel, Jack; Sung, Lawrence M; Zacharia, Lynn F; Collins, Francis S; Kennedy, Karen; Jamieson, Ruth; Stewart, John

2007-10-18

With the advent of dense maps of human genetic variation, it is now possible to detect positive natural selection across the human genome. Here we report an analysis of over 3 million polymorphisms from the International HapMap Project Phase 2 (HapMap2). We used 'long-range haplotype' methods, which were developed to identify alleles segregating in a population that have undergone recent selection, and we also developed new methods that are based on cross-population comparisons to discover alleles that have swept to near-fixation within a population. The analysis reveals more than 300 strong candidate regions. Focusing on the strongest 22 regions, we develop a heuristic for scrutinizing these regions to identify candidate targets of selection. In a complementary analysis, we identify 26 non-synonymous, coding, single nucleotide polymorphisms showing regional evidence of positive selection. Examination of these candidates highlights three cases in which two genes in a common biological process have apparently undergone positive selection in the same population:LARGE and DMD, both related to infection by the Lassa virus, in West Africa;SLC24A5 and SLC45A2, both involved in skin pigmentation, in Europe; and EDAR and EDA2R, both involved in development of hair follicles, in Asia.

The challenge of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bryner, G.C.

1992-01-01

The chapter outlines the science of global warming, the likely consequences of global warming and some of the major challenges in dealing with global climate change. Some of the major international organisations concerned with environmental issues are listed. International agreements might be used to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. 32 refs., 2 tabs

Global warming and nuclear power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wood, L., LLNL

1998-07-10

Nuclear fission power reactors represent a potential solution to many aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth`s atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high-grade heat for large-scale electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-energizing around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates; importantly, electricity production costs from the best nuclear plants presently are closely comparable with those of the best fossil-fired plants. However, a substantial number of issues currently stand between nuclear power and widespread substitution for large stationary fossil fuel-fired systems. These include perceptual ones regarding both long-term and acute operational safety, plant decommissioning, fuel reprocessing, radwaste disposal, fissile materials diversion to military purposes and - perhaps most seriously- readily quantifiable concerns regarding long-term fuel supply and total unit electrical energy cost. We sketch a road-map for proceeding from the present situation toward a nuclear power-intensive world, addressing along the way each of the concerns which presently impede widespread nuclear substitution for fossil fuels, particularly for coal in the most populous and rapidly developing portions of the world, e.g., China and India. This `design to societal specifications` approach to large-scale nuclear fission power systems may lead to energy sources meeting essentially all stationary demands for high-temperature heat. Such advanced options offer a human population of ten billion the electricity supply levels currently enjoyed by Americans for 10,000 years. Nuclear power systems tailored to local needs-and-interests and having a common advanced technology base could reduce present-day world-wide C0{sub 2} emissions by two-fold, if universally employed. By application to small mobile demands, a second two

Population genetic inference from personal genome data: impact of ancestry and admixture on human genomic variation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kidd, Jeffrey M; Gravel, Simon; Byrnes, Jake; Moreno-Estrada, Andres; Musharoff, Shaila; Bryc, Katarzyna; Degenhardt, Jeremiah D; Brisbin, Abra; Sheth, Vrunda; Chen, Rong; McLaughlin, Stephen F; Peckham, Heather E; Omberg, Larsson; Bormann Chung, Christina A; Stanley, Sarah; Pearlstein, Kevin; Levandowsky, Elizabeth; Acevedo-Acevedo, Suehelay; Auton, Adam; Keinan, Alon; Acuña-Alonzo, Victor; Barquera-Lozano, Rodrigo; Canizales-Quinteros, Samuel; Eng, Celeste; Burchard, Esteban G; Russell, Archie; Reynolds, Andy; Clark, Andrew G; Reese, Martin G; Lincoln, Stephen E; Butte, Atul J; De La Vega, Francisco M; Bustamante, Carlos D

2012-10-05

Full sequencing of individual human genomes has greatly expanded our understanding of human genetic variation and population history. Here, we present a systematic analysis of 50 human genomes from 11 diverse global populations sequenced at high coverage. Our sample includes 12 individuals who have admixed ancestry and who have varying degrees of recent (within the last 500 years) African, Native American, and European ancestry. We found over 21 million single-nucleotide variants that contribute to a 1.75-fold range in nucleotide heterozygosity across diverse human genomes. This heterozygosity ranged from a high of one heterozygous site per kilobase in west African genomes to a low of 0.57 heterozygous sites per kilobase in segments inferred to have diploid Native American ancestry from the genomes of Mexican and Puerto Rican individuals. We show evidence of all three continental ancestries in the genomes of Mexican, Puerto Rican, and African American populations, and the genome-wide statistics are highly consistent across individuals from a population once ancestry proportions have been accounted for. Using a generalized linear model, we identified subtle variations across populations in the proportion of neutral versus deleterious variation and found that genome-wide statistics vary in admixed populations even once ancestry proportions have been factored in. We further infer that multiple periods of gene flow shaped the diversity of admixed populations in the Americas-70% of the European ancestry in today's African Americans dates back to European gene flow happening only 7-8 generations ago. Copyright © 2012 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Startup mechanism of moxibustion warming and dredging function].

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Kaiyu; Liang, Shuang; Sun, Zheng; Zhang, Jianbin

2017-09-12

With "moxibustion" and "warm stimulation" as the keywords, the literature on moxibustion mechanism of warming and dredging from June 1st, 1995 to June 1st, 2016 was collected from PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Wanfang database. The startup mechanism of moxibustion warming and dredging function was analyzed in terms of moxibustion warming stimulation. The results were found that moxibustion was based on local rising temperature of acupoint. It activated local specific receptors, heat sensitive immune cells, heat shock proteins and so on to start the warming and dredging function and produce various local effects. The warming stimulation signals as well as subsequent effects through nerve and body fluid pathways induced the effects of further specific target organs and body systems.