Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

2018-03-01

Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

Variables that predict academic procrastination behavior in prospective primary school teachers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asuman Seda SARACALOĞLU

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to examine the variables predicting academic procrastination behavior of prospective primary school teachers and is conducted using the correlational survey model. The study group is composed of 294 undergraduate students studying primary school teaching programs in faculties of education at Adnan Menderes, Pamukkale, and Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Universities in Turkey. The data collection instruments used were the Procrastination Assessment Scale Students (PASS, Academic Self-Efficacy Scale (ASES, and Academic Motivation Scale (AMS. While analyzing the gathered data, descriptive analysis techniques were utilized. Moreover, while analyzing the data, power of variables namely reasons of academic procrastination, academic motivation, and academic efficacy to predict prospective primary school teachers’ academic procrastination tendencies were tested. For that purpose, stepwise regression analysis was employed. It was found that nearly half of the prospective primary school teachers displayed no academic procrastination behavior. Participants’ reasons for procrastination were fear of failure, laziness, taking risks, and rebellion against control. An average level significant correlation was found between participants’ academic procrastination and other variables. As a result, it was identified that prospective primary school teachers had less academic procrastination than reported in literature and laziness, fear of failure, academic motivation predicted academic procrastination.

Determination of turnover and cushion gas volume of a prospected gas storage reservoir under uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gubik, A. [RAG-AG Wien (Austria); Baffoe, J.; Schulze-Riegert, R. [SPT Group GmbH, Hamburg (Germany)

2013-08-01

Gas storages define a key contribution for building a reliable gas supply chain from production to consumers. In a competitive gas market with short reaction times to seasonal and other gas injection and extraction requirements, gas storages also receive a strong focus on availability and precise prediction estimates for future operation scenarios. Reservoir management workflows are increasingly built on reservoir simulation support for optimizing production schemes and estimating the impact of subsurface uncertainties on field development scenarios. Simulation models for gas storages are calibrated to geological data and accurate reproduction of historical production data are defined as a prerequisite for reliable production and performance forecasts. The underlying model validation process is called history matching, which potentially generates alternative simulation models due to prevailing geological uncertainties. In the past, a single basecase reference model was used to predict production capacities of a gas storage. The working gas volume was precisely defined over a contracted plateau delivery and the required cushion gas volume maintains the reservoir pressure during the operation. Cushion and working gas Volume are strongly dependent on reservoir parameters. In this work an existing depleted gas reservoir and the operation target as a gas storage is described. Key input data to the reservoir model description and simulation is reviewed including production history and geological uncertainties based on large well spacing, limited core and well data and a limited seismic resolution. Target delivery scenarios of the prospected gas storage are evaluated under uncertainty. As one key objective, optimal working gas and cushion gas volumes are described in a probabilistic context reflecting geological uncertainties. Several work steps are defined and included in an integrated workflow design. Equiprobable geological models are generated and evaluated based on

Predicting Hemorrhagic Transformation of Acute Ischemic Stroke: Prospective Validation of the HeRS Score.

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Marsh, Elisabeth B; Llinas, Rafael H; Schneider, Andrea L C; Hillis, Argye E; Lawrence, Erin; Dziedzic, Peter; Gottesman, Rebecca F

2016-01-01

Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) increases the morbidity and mortality of ischemic stroke. Anticoagulation is often indicated in patients with atrial fibrillation, low ejection fraction, or mechanical valves who are hospitalized with acute stroke, but increases the risk of HT. Risk quantification would be useful. Prior studies have investigated risk of systemic hemorrhage in anticoagulated patients, but none looked specifically at HT. In our previously published work, age, infarct volume, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) significantly predicted HT. We created the hemorrhage risk stratification (HeRS) score based on regression coefficients in multivariable modeling and now determine its validity in a prospectively followed inpatient cohort.A total of 241 consecutive patients presenting to 2 academic stroke centers with acute ischemic stroke and an indication for anticoagulation over a 2.75-year period were included. Neuroimaging was evaluated for infarct volume and HT. Hemorrhages were classified as symptomatic versus asymptomatic, and by severity. HeRS scores were calculated for each patient and compared to actual hemorrhage status using receiver operating curve analysis.Area under the curve (AUC) comparing predicted odds of hemorrhage (HeRS score) to actual hemorrhage status was 0.701. Serum glucose (P hemorrhages were more likely to be symptomatic and more severe.The HeRS score is a valid predictor of HT in patients with ischemic stroke and indication for anticoagulation.

Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying prospective memory

OpenAIRE

Cona, Giorgia; Arcara, Giorgio; Tarantino, Vincenza; Bisiacchi, Patrizia S.

2015-01-01

Prospective memory (PM) represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signaled by a warning...

Prospective assessment of dosimetric/physiologic-based models for predicting radiation pneumonitis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kocak, Zafer; Borst, Gerben R.; Zeng Jing; Zhou Sumin; Hollis, Donna R.; Zhang Junan; Evans, Elizabeth S.; Folz, Rodney J.; Wong, Terrence; Kahn, Daniel; Belderbos, Jose S.A.; Lebesque, Joos V.; Marks, Lawrence B.

2007-01-01

Purpose: Clinical and 3D dosimetric parameters are associated with symptomatic radiation pneumonitis rates in retrospective studies. Such parameters include: mean lung dose (MLD), radiation (RT) dose to perfused lung (via SPECT), and pre-RT lung function. Based on prior publications, we defined pre-RT criteria hypothesized to be predictive for later development of pneumonitis. We herein prospectively test the predictive abilities of these dosimetric/functional parameters on 2 cohorts of patients from Duke and Netherlands Cancer Institute (NKI). Methods and Materials: For the Duke cohort, 55 eligible patients treated between 1999 and 2005 on a prospective IRB-approved study to monitor RT-induced lung injury were analyzed. A similar group of patients treated at the NKI between 1996 and 2002 were identified. Patients believed to be at high and low risk for pneumonitis were defined based on: (1) MLD; (2) OpRP (sum of predicted perfusion reduction based on regional dose-response curve); and (3) pre-RT DLCO. All doses reflected tissue density heterogeneity. The rates of grade ≥2 pneumonitis in the 'presumed' high and low risk groups were compared using Fisher's exact test. Results: In the Duke group, pneumonitis rates in patients prospectively deemed to be at 'high' vs. 'low' risk are 7 of 20 and 9 of 35, respectively; p = 0.33 one-tailed Fisher's. Similarly, comparable rates for the NKI group are 4 of 21 and 6 of 44, respectively, p = 0.41 one-tailed Fisher's. Conclusion: The prospective model appears unable to accurately segregate patients into high vs. low risk groups. However, considered retrospectively, these data are consistent with prior studies suggesting that dosimetric (e.g., MLD) and functional (e.g., PFTs or SPECT) parameters are predictive for RT-induced pneumonitis. Additional work is needed to better identify, and prospectively assess, predictors of RT-induced lung injury

A Novel Grey Wave Method for Predicting Total Chinese Trade Volume

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kedong Yin

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The total trade volume of a country is an important way of appraising its international trade situation. A prediction based on trade volume will help enterprises arrange production efficiently and promote the sustainability of the international trade. Because the total Chinese trade volume fluctuates over time, this paper proposes a Grey wave forecasting model with a Hodrick–Prescott filter (HP filter to forecast it. This novel model first parses time series into long-term trend and short-term cycle. Second, the model uses a general GM (1,1 to predict the trend term and the Grey wave forecasting model to predict the cycle term. Empirical analysis shows that the improved Grey wave prediction method provides a much more accurate forecast than the basic Grey wave prediction method, achieving better prediction results than autoregressive moving average model (ARMA.

The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

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Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

2009-12-01

Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

Predictive equations for lung volumes from computed tomography for size matching in pulmonary transplantation.

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Konheim, Jeremy A; Kon, Zachary N; Pasrija, Chetan; Luo, Qingyang; Sanchez, Pablo G; Garcia, Jose P; Griffith, Bartley P; Jeudy, Jean

2016-04-01

Size matching for lung transplantation is widely accomplished using height comparisons between donors and recipients. This gross approximation allows for wide variation in lung size and, potentially, size mismatch. Three-dimensional computed tomography (3D-CT) volumetry comparisons could offer more accurate size matching. Although recipient CT scans are universally available, donor CT scans are rarely performed. Therefore, predicted donor lung volumes could be used for comparison to measured recipient lung volumes, but no such predictive equations exist. We aimed to use 3D-CT volumetry measurements from a normal patient population to generate equations for predicted total lung volume (pTLV), predicted right lung volume (pRLV), and predicted left lung volume (pLLV), for size-matching purposes. Chest CT scans of 400 normal patients were retrospectively evaluated. 3D-CT volumetry was performed to measure total lung volume, right lung volume, and left lung volume of each patient, and predictive equations were generated. The fitted model was tested in a separate group of 100 patients. The model was externally validated by comparison of total lung volume with total lung capacity from pulmonary function tests in a subset of those patients. Age, gender, height, and race were independent predictors of lung volume. In the test group, there were strong linear correlations between predicted and actual lung volumes measured by 3D-CT volumetry for pTLV (r = 0.72), pRLV (r = 0.72), and pLLV (r = 0.69). A strong linear correlation was also observed when comparing pTLV and total lung capacity (r = 0.82). We successfully created a predictive model for pTLV, pRLV, and pLLV. These may serve as reference standards and predict donor lung volume for size matching in lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigation of a breathing surrogate prediction algorithm for prospective pulmonary gating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, Benjamin M.; Low, Daniel A.; Zhao Tianyu; Wuenschel, Sara; Lu, Wei; Lamb, James M.; Mutic, Sasa; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam

2011-01-01

Purpose: A major challenge of four dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) in treatment planning and delivery has been the lack of respiration amplitude and phase reproducibility during image acquisition. The implementation of a prospective gating algorithm would ensure that images would be acquired only during user-specified breathing phases. This study describes the development and testing of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for human respiratory phase prediction under quiet respiration conditions. Methods: A total of 47 4DCT patient datasets and synchronized respiration records was utilized in this study. Three datasets were used in model development and were removed from further evaluation of the ARMA model. The remaining 44 patient datasets were evaluated with the ARMA model for prediction time steps from 50 to 1000 ms in increments of 50 and 100 ms. Thirty-five of these datasets were further used to provide a comparison between the proposed ARMA model and a commercial algorithm with a prediction time step of 240 ms. Results: The optimal number of parameters for the ARMA model was based on three datasets reserved for model development. Prediction error was found to increase as the prediction time step increased. The minimum prediction time step required for prospective gating was selected to be half of the gantry rotation period. The maximum prediction time step with a conservative 95% confidence criterion was found to be 0.3 s. The ARMA model predicted peak inhalation and peak exhalation phases significantly better than the commercial algorithm. Furthermore, the commercial algorithm had numerous instances of missed breath cycles and falsely predicted breath cycles, while the proposed model did not have these errors. Conclusions: An ARMA model has been successfully applied to predict human respiratory phase occurrence. For a typical CT scanner gantry rotation period of 0.4 s (0.2 s prediction time step), the absolute error was relatively small, 0

Predictive modelling for swallowing dysfunction after primary (chemo)radiation: results of a prospective observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Christianen, Miranda E M C; Schilstra, Cornelis; Beetz, Ivo; Muijs, Christina T; Chouvalova, Olga; Burlage, Fred R; Doornaert, Patricia; Koken, Phil W; Leemans, C René; Rinkel, Rico N P M; de Bruijn, Marieke J; de Bock, G H; Roodenburg, Jan L N; van der Laan, Bernard F A M; Slotman, Ben J; Verdonck-de Leeuw, Irma M; Bijl, Hendrik P; Langendijk, Johannes A

2012-10-01

The purpose of this large multicentre prospective cohort study was to identify which dose volume histogram parameters and pre-treatment factors are most important to predict physician-rated and patient-rated radiation-induced swallowing dysfunction (RISD) in order to develop predictive models for RISD after curative (chemo) radiotherapy ((CH) RT). The study population consisted of 354 consecutive head and neck cancer patients treated with (CH) RT. The primary endpoint was grade 2 or more swallowing dysfunction according to the RTOG/EORTC late radiation morbidity scoring criteria at 6 months after (CH) RT. The secondary endpoints were patient-rated swallowing complaints as assessed with the EORTC QLQ-H&N35 questionnaire. To select the most predictive variables a multivariate logistic regression analysis with bootstrapping was used. At 6 months after (CH) RT the bootstrapping procedure revealed that a model based on the mean dose to the superior pharyngeal constrictor muscle (PCM) and mean dose to the supraglottic larynx was most predictive. For the secondary endpoints different predictive models were found: for problems with swallowing liquids the most predictive factors were the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx and radiation technique (3D-CRT versus IMRT). For problems with swallowing soft food the mean dose to the middle PCM, age (18-65 versus >65 years), tumour site (naso/oropharynx versus other sites) and radiation technique (3D-CRT versus IMRT) were the most predictive factors. For problems with swallowing solid food the most predictive factors were the mean dose to the superior PCM, the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx and age (18-65 versus >65 years). And for choking when swallowing the V60 of the oesophageal inlet muscle and the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx were the most predictive factors. Physician-rated and patient-rated RISD in head and neck cancer patients treated with (CH) RT cannot be predicted with univariate relationships between the

Association Between Pain at Sites Outside the Knee and Knee Cartilage Volume Loss in Elderly People Without Knee Osteoarthritis: A Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Feng; Laslett, Laura; Tian, Jing; Cicuttini, Flavia; Winzenberg, Tania; Ding, Changhai; Jones, Graeme

2017-05-01

Pain is common in the elderly. Knee pain may predict knee cartilage loss, but whether generalized pain is associated with knee cartilage loss is unclear. This study, therefore, aimed to determine whether pain at multiple sites predicts knee cartilage volume loss among community-dwelling older adults, and, if so, to explore potential mechanisms. Data from the prospective Tasmanian Older Adult Cohort study was utilized (n = 394, mean age 63 years, range 52-79 years). Experience of pain at multiple sites was assessed using a questionnaire at baseline. T1-weighted fat-saturated magnetic resonance imaging of the right knee was performed to assess the cartilage volume at baseline and after 2.6 years. Linear regression modeling was used with adjustment for potential confounders. The median number of painful sites was 3 (range 0-7). There was a dose-response relationship between the number of painful sites and knee cartilage volume loss in the lateral and total tibiofemoral compartments (lateral β = -0.28% per annum; total β = -0.25% per annum, both P for trend knee osteoarthritis (OA) (P pain medication, and knee structural abnormalities. The number of painful sites independently predicts knee cartilage volume loss, especially in people without knee OA, suggesting that widespread pain may be an early marker of more rapid knee cartilage loss in those without radiographic knee OA. The underlying mechanism is unclear, but it is independent of anthropometrics, physical activity, and knee structural abnormalities. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Prospective versus predictive control in timing of hitting a falling ball.

Science.gov (United States)

Katsumata, Hiromu; Russell, Daniel M

2012-02-01

Debate exists as to whether humans use prospective or predictive control to intercept an object falling under gravity (Baurès et al. in Vis Res 47:2982-2991, 2007; Zago et al. in Vis Res 48:1532-1538, 2008). Prospective control involves using continuous information to regulate action. τ, the ratio of the size of the gap to the rate of gap closure, has been proposed as the information used in guiding interceptive actions prospectively (Lee in Ecol Psychol 10:221-250, 1998). This form of control is expected to generate movement modulation, where variability decreases over the course of an action based upon more accurate timing information. In contrast, predictive control assumes that a pre-programmed movement is triggered at an appropriate criterion timing variable. For a falling object it is commonly argued that an internal model of gravitational acceleration is used to predict the motion of the object and determine movement initiation. This form of control predicts fixed duration movements initiated at consistent time-to-contact (TTC), either across conditions (constant criterion operational timing) or within conditions (variable criterion operational timing). The current study sought to test predictive and prospective control hypotheses by disrupting continuous visual information of a falling ball and examining consistency in movement initiation and duration, and evidence for movement modulation. Participants (n = 12) batted a ball dropped from three different heights (1, 1.3 and 1.5 m), under both full-vision and partial occlusion conditions. In the occlusion condition, only the initial ball drop and the final 200 ms of ball flight to the interception point could be observed. The initiation of the swing did not occur at a consistent TTC, τ, or any other timing variable across drop heights, in contrast with previous research. However, movement onset was not impacted by occluding the ball flight for 280-380 ms. This finding indicates that humans did not

A prospective evaluation of hippocampal radiation dose volume effects and memory deficits following cranial irradiation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Ting Martin; Grimm, Jimm; McIntyre, Riley; Anderson-Keightly, Heather; Kleinberg, Lawrence R; Hales, Russell K; Moore, Joseph; Vannorsdall, Tracy; Redmond, Kristin J

2017-11-01

To prospectively evaluate hippocampal radiation dose volume effects and memory decline following cranial irradiation. Effects of hippocampal radiation over a wide range of doses were investigated by combining data from three prospective studies. In one, adults with small cell lung cancer received hippocampal-avoidance prophylactic cranial irradiation. In the other two, adults with glioblastoma multiforme received neural progenitor cell sparing radiation or no sparing with extra dose delivered to subventricular zone. Memory was measured by the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised Delayed Recall (HVLT-R DR) at 6 months after radiation. Dose-volume histograms were generated and dose-response data were fitted to a nonlinear model. Of 60 patients enrolled, 30 were analyzable based on HVLT-R DR testing completion status, baseline HVLT-R DR and intracranial metastasis/recurrence or prior hippocampal resection status. We observed a dose-response of radiation to the hippocampus with regard to decline in HVLT-R DR. D50% of the bilateral hippocampi of 22.1 Gy is associated with 20% risk of decline. This prospective study demonstrates an association between hippocampal dose volume effects and memory decline measured by HVLT-R DR over a wide dose range. These data support a potential benefit of hippocampal sparing and encourage continued trial enrollment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Method and timing of tumor volume measurement for outcome prediction in cervical cancer using magnetic resonance imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayr, Nina A.; Taoka, Toshiaki; Yuh, William T.C.; Denning, Leah M.; Zhen, Weining K.; Paulino, Arnold C.; Gaston, Robert C.; Sorosky, Joel I.; Meeks, Sanford L.; Walker, Joan L.; Mannel, Robert S.; Buatti, John M.

2002-01-01

Purpose: Recently, imaging-based tumor volume before, during, and after radiation therapy (RT) has been shown to predict tumor response in cervical cancer. However, the effectiveness of different methods and timing of imaging-based tumor size assessment have not been investigated. The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive value for treatment outcome derived from simple diameter-based ellipsoid tumor volume measurement using orthogonal diameters (with ellipsoid computation) with that derived from more complex contour tracing/region-of-interest (ROI) analysis 3D tumor volumetry. Methods and Materials: Serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations were prospectively performed in 60 patients with advanced cervical cancer (Stages IB 2 -IVB/recurrent) at the start of RT, during early RT (20-25 Gy), mid-RT (45-50 Gy), and at follow-up (1-2 months after RT completion). ROI-based volumetry was derived by tracing the entire tumor region in each MR slice on the computer work station. For the diameter-based surrogate ''ellipsoid volume,'' the three orthogonal diameters (d 1 , d 2 , d 3 ) were measured on film hard copies to calculate volume as an ellipsoid (d 1 x d 2 x d 3 x π/6). Serial tumor volumes and regression rates determined by each method were correlated with local control, disease-free and overall survival, and the results were compared between the two measuring methods. Median post-therapy follow-up was 4.9 years (range, 2.0-8.2 years). Results: The best method and time point of tumor size measurement for the prediction of outcome was the tumor regression rate in the mid-therapy MRI examination (at 45-50 Gy) using 3D ROI volumetry. For the pre-RT measurement both the diameter-based method and ROI volumetry provided similar predictive accuracy, particularly for patients with small ( 3 ) and large (≥100 cm 3 ) pre-RT tumor size. However, the pre-RT tumor size measured by either method had much less predictive value for the intermediate-size (40

Early Prediction of Outcome in Advanced Head-and-Neck Cancer Based on Tumor Blood Volume Alterations During Therapy: A Prospective Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao Yue; Popovtzer, Aron; Li, Diana; Chepeha, Douglas B.; Moyer, Jeffrey S.; Prince, Mark E.; Worden, Francis; Teknos, Theodoros; Bradford, Carol; Mukherji, Suresh K.; Eisbruch, Avraham

2008-01-01

Purpose: To assess whether alterations in tumor blood volume (BV) and blood flow (BF) during the early course of chemo-radiotherapy (chemo-RT) for head-and-neck cancer (HNC) predict treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: Fourteen patients receiving concomitant chemo-RT for nonresectable, locally advanced HNC underwent dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI scans before therapy and 2 weeks after initiation of chemo-RT. The BV and BF were quantified from DCE MRI. Preradiotherapy BV and BF, as well as their changes during RT, were evaluated separately in the primary gross tumor volume (GTV) and nodal GTV for association with outcomes. Results: At a median follow-up of 10 months (range, 5-27 months), 9 patients had local-regional controlled disease. One patient had regional failure, 3 had local failures, and 1 had local-regional failure. Reduction in tumor volume after 2 weeks of chemo-RT did not predict for local control. In contrast, the BV in the primary GTV after 2 weeks of chemo-RT was increased significantly in the local control patients compared with the local failure patients (p < 0.03). Conclusions: Our data suggest that an increase in available primary tumor blood for oxygen extraction during the early course of RT is associated with local control, thus yielding a predictor with potential to modify treatment. These findings require validation in larger studies

Developing a stochastic traffic volume prediction model for public-private partnership projects

Science.gov (United States)

Phong, Nguyen Thanh; Likhitruangsilp, Veerasak; Onishi, Masamitsu

2017-11-01

Transportation projects require an enormous amount of capital investment resulting from their tremendous size, complexity, and risk. Due to the limitation of public finances, the private sector is invited to participate in transportation project development. The private sector can entirely or partially invest in transportation projects in the form of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme, which has been an attractive option for several developing countries, including Vietnam. There are many factors affecting the success of PPP projects. The accurate prediction of traffic volume is considered one of the key success factors of PPP transportation projects. However, only few research works investigated how to predict traffic volume over a long period of time. Moreover, conventional traffic volume forecasting methods are usually based on deterministic models which predict a single value of traffic volume but do not consider risk and uncertainty. This knowledge gap makes it difficult for concessionaires to estimate PPP transportation project revenues accurately. The objective of this paper is to develop a probabilistic traffic volume prediction model. First, traffic volumes were estimated following the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process. Monte Carlo technique is then applied to simulate different scenarios. The results show that this stochastic approach can systematically analyze variations in the traffic volume and yield more reliable estimates for PPP projects.

Accuracy of formulas used to predict post-transfusion packed cell volume rise in anemic dogs.

Science.gov (United States)

Short, Jacqueline L; Diehl, Shenandoah; Seshadri, Ravi; Serrano, Sergi

2012-08-01

To assess the accuracy of published formulas used to guide packed red blood cell (pRBC) transfusions in anemic dogs and to compare the predicted rise in packed cell volume (PCV) to the actual post-transfusion rise in PCV. Prospective observational study from April 2009 through July 2009. A small animal emergency and specialty hospital. Thirty-one anemic client-owned dogs that received pRBC transfusions for treatment of anemia. None Four formulas were evaluated to determine their predictive ability with respect to rise in PCV following transfusion with pRBC. Post-transfusion rise in PCV were compared to calculated rise in PCV using 4 different formulas. Bias and limits of agreement were investigated using Bland-Altman analyses. Accuracy of existing formulas to predict rise in PCV following transfusion varied significantly. Formula 1 (volume to be transfused [VT] [mL] = 1 mL × % PCV rise × kg body weight [BW]) overestimated the expected rise in PCV (mean difference, 6.30), while formula 2 (VT [mL] = 2 mL ×% PCV rise × kg BW) underestimated the rise in PCV (mean difference, -3.01). Formula 3 (VT [mL] = 90 mL × kg BW × [(desired PCV - Patient PCV)/PCV of donor blood]) and formula 4 (VT [mL] = 1.5 mL ×% PCV rise × kg BW) performed well (mean difference 0.23 and 0.09, respectively) in predicting rise in PCV following pRBC transfusion. Agreement between 2 formulas, "VT (mL) = kg BW × blood volume (90 mL) × [(desired PCV - recipient PCV)/Donor PCV]" and "VT (mL) = 1.5 ×desired rise in PCV × kg BW," was found when they were compared to the actual rise in PCV following pRBC transfusion in anemic dogs. Further research is warranted to determine whether these formulas perform similarly well for other species. © Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care Society 2012.

Timing of low tidal volume ventilation and intensive care unit mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome. A prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Needham, Dale M; Yang, Ting; Dinglas, Victor D; Mendez-Tellez, Pedro A; Shanholtz, Carl; Sevransky, Jonathan E; Brower, Roy G; Pronovost, Peter J; Colantuoni, Elizabeth

2015-01-15

Reducing tidal volume decreases mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). However, the effect of the timing of low tidal volume ventilation is not well understood. To evaluate the association of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality with initial tidal volume and with tidal volume change over time. Multivariable, time-varying Cox regression analysis of a multisite, prospective study of 482 patients with ARDS with 11,558 twice-daily tidal volume assessments (evaluated in milliliter per kilogram of predicted body weight [PBW]) and daily assessment of other mortality predictors. An increase of 1 ml/kg PBW in initial tidal volume was associated with a 23% increase in ICU mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.44; P = 0.008). Moreover, a 1 ml/kg PBW increase in subsequent tidal volumes compared with the initial tidal volume was associated with a 15% increase in mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02-1.29; P = 0.019). Compared with a prototypical patient receiving 8 days with a tidal volume of 6 ml/kg PBW, the absolute increase in ICU mortality (95% CI) of receiving 10 and 8 ml/kg PBW, respectively, across all 8 days was 7.2% (3.0-13.0%) and 2.7% (1.2-4.6%). In scenarios with variation in tidal volume over the 8-day period, mortality was higher when a larger volume was used earlier. Higher tidal volumes shortly after ARDS onset were associated with a greater risk of ICU mortality compared with subsequent tidal volumes. Timely recognition of ARDS and adherence to low tidal volume ventilation is important for reducing mortality. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00300248).

Contrast-enhanced T1 mapping-based extracellular volume fraction independently predicts clinical outcome in patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy: a prospective cohort study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Youn, Jong-Chan [Hallym University College of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Dongtan Sacred Heart Hospital, Hwaseong (Korea, Republic of); Yonsei University College of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Severance Cardiovascular Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Yoo Jin; Lee, Hye-Jeong; Han, Kyunghwa; Suh, Young Joo; Hur, Jin; Kim, Young Jin; Choi, Byoung Wook [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Research Institute of Radiological Science, Severance Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Shim, Chi Young; Hong, Geu-Ru; Kang, Seok-Min [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Severance Cardiovascular Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2017-09-15

We aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR)-based extracellular volume fraction (ECV) in patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM) and compare it with late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) parameters. This was a single-center, prospective, cohort study of 117 NIDCM patients (71 men, 51.9 ± 16.7 years) who underwent clinical 3.0-T CMR. Myocardial ECV and LGE were quantified on the left ventricular myocardium. The presence of midwall LGE was also detected. Nineteen healthy subjects served as controls. The primary end points were cardiovascular (CV) events defined by CV death, rehospitalization due to heart failure, and heart transplantation. During the follow-up period (median duration, 11.2 months; 25{sup th}-75{sup th} percentile, 7.8-21.9 months), the primary end points occurred in 19 patients (16.2%). The ECV (per 3% and 1% increase) was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.80 and 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-2.20 and 1.14-1.30, respectively; p < 0.001) for the CV events. Multivariable analysis also indicated that ECV was an independent prognostic factor and had a higher prognostic value (Harrell's c statistic, 0.88) than LGE quantification values (0.77) or midwall LGE (0.80). CMR-based ECV independently predicts the clinical outcome in NIDCM patients. (orig.)

Performance predictions affect attentional processes of event-based prospective memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Rummel, Jan; Kuhlmann, Beatrice G; Touron, Dayna R

2013-09-01

To investigate whether making performance predictions affects prospective memory (PM) processing, we asked one group of participants to predict their performance in a PM task embedded in an ongoing task and compared their performance with a control group that made no predictions. A third group gave not only PM predictions but also ongoing-task predictions. Exclusive PM predictions resulted in slower ongoing-task responding both in a nonfocal (Experiment 1) and in a focal (Experiment 2) PM task. Only in the nonfocal task was the additional slowing accompanied by improved PM performance. Even in the nonfocal task, however, was the correlation between ongoing-task speed and PM performance reduced after predictions, suggesting that the slowing was not completely functional for PM. Prediction-induced changes could be avoided by asking participants to additionally predict their performance in the ongoing task. In sum, the present findings substantiate a role of metamemory for attention-allocation strategies of PM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early changes of parotid density and volume predict modifications at the end of therapy and intensity of acute xerostomia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belli, Maria Luisa; Broggi, Sara; Scalco, Elisa; Rizzo, Giovanna; Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Fiorino, Claudio; Cattaneo, Giovanni Mauro; Dinapoli, Nicola; Valentini, Vincenzo; Ricchetti, Francesco

2014-01-01

To quantitatively assess the predictive power of early variations of parotid gland volume and density on final changes at the end of therapy and, possibly, on acute xerostomia during IMRT for head-neck cancer. Data of 92 parotids (46 patients) were available. Kinetics of the changes during treatment were described by the daily rate of density (rΔρ) and volume (rΔvol) variation based on weekly diagnostic kVCT images. Correlation between early and final changes was investigated as well as the correlation with prospective toxicity data (CTCAEv3.0) collected weekly during treatment for 24/46 patients. A higher rΔρ was observed during the first compared to last week of treatment (-0,50 vs -0,05HU, p-value = 0.0001). Based on early variations, a good estimation of the final changes may be obtained (Δρ: AUC = 0.82, p = 0.0001; Δvol: AUC = 0.77, p = 0.0001). Both early rΔρ and rΔvol predict a higher ''mean'' acute xerostomia score (≥ median value, 1.57; p-value = 0.01). Median early density rate changes for patients with mean xerostomia score ≥ / 3 /day for rΔρ and rΔvol respectively. Further studies are necessary to definitively assess the potential of early density/volume changes in identifying more sensitive patients at higher risk of experiencing xerostomia. (orig.) [de

Pre-treatment amygdala volume predicts electroconvulsive therapy response

NARCIS (Netherlands)

ten Doesschate, Freek; van Eijndhoven, Philip; Tendolkar, Indira; van Wingen, Guido A.; van Waarde, Jeroen A.

2014-01-01

Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is an effective treatment for patients with severe depression. Knowledge on factors predicting therapeutic response may help to identify patients who will benefit most from the intervention. Based on the neuroplasticity hypothesis, volumes of the amygdala and

Volumizing effects of a smooth, highly cohesive, viscous 20-mg/mL hyaluronic acid volumizing filler: prospective European study

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Hoffmann Klaus

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Facial volume loss contributes significantly to facial aging. The 20-mg/mL hyaluronic acid (HA formulation used in this study is a smooth, highly cohesive, viscous, fully reversible, volumizing filler indicated to restore facial volume. This first prospective study evaluated use in current aesthetic clinical practice. Methods A pan-European evaluation conducted under guidelines of the World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research, the trial comprised a baseline visit (visit 1 and a follow-up (visit 2 at 14 ± 7 days posttreatment. Physicians photographed patients at each visit. Each patient was treated with the 20-mg/mL HA volumizing filler as supplied in standard packaging. Procedural details, aesthetic outcomes, safety, and physician and patient ratings of their experience were recorded. Results Fifteen physicians and 70 patients (91% female; mean age: 50 years participated. Mean volume loss at baseline was 3.7 (moderate on the Facial Volume Loss Scale. Local anesthesia was used in 64.3% of cases. Most injections (85% were administered with needles rather than cannulas. Of the 208 injections, 59% were in the malar region, primarily above the periosteum. Subcutaneous injections were most common for other sites. The mean total injection volume per patient was 4.6 mL. The mean volume loss score declined significantly (P Conclusion The 20-mg/mL smooth, highly cohesive, viscous, volumizing HA filler was effective, well tolerated, and easy to use in current clinical practice. Participants were very likely to recommend this product to colleagues and friends, and patients would be very or quite likely to request this product for future treatments.

Hippocampal dose volume histogram predicts Hopkins Verbal Learning Test scores after brain irradiation

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Catherine Okoukoni, PhD

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Radiation-induced cognitive decline is relatively common after treatment for primary and metastatic brain tumors; however, identifying dosimetric parameters that are predictive of radiation-induced cognitive decline is difficult due to the heterogeneity of patient characteristics. The memory function is especially susceptible to radiation effects after treatment. The objective of this study is to correlate volumetric radiation doses received by critical neuroanatomic structures to post–radiation therapy (RT memory impairment. Methods and materials: Between 2008 and 2011, 53 patients with primary brain malignancies were treated with conventionally fractionated RT in prospectively accrued clinical trials performed at our institution. Dose-volume histogram analysis was performed for the hippocampus, parahippocampus, amygdala, and fusiform gyrus. Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised scores were obtained at least 6 months after RT. Impairment was defined as an immediate recall score ≤15. For each anatomic region, serial regression was performed to correlate volume receiving a given dose (VD(Gy with memory impairment. Results: Hippocampal V53.4Gy to V60.9Gy significantly predicted post-RT memory impairment (P < .05. Within this range, the hippocampal V55Gy was the most significant predictor (P = .004. Hippocampal V55Gy of 0%, 25%, and 50% was associated with tumor-induced impairment rates of 14.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2%-28.7%, 45.9% (95% CI, 24.7%-68.6%, and 80.6% (95% CI, 39.2%-96.4%, respectively. Conclusions: The hippocampal V55Gy is a significant predictor for impairment, and a limiting dose below 55 Gy may minimize radiation-induced cognitive impairment.

Prospects of Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Industries in the Arab Region: Opportunities and Challenges, Volume 1 and Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The publication has been set up as proceedings of the Chemical Engineering conference, Prospects of Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Industries in The Arab Region Opportunities and Challenges., the conference contains of the following subjects: Gas Processing; Oil Refinery Engineering; Petrochemical Industry; Fuels Technologies and Transport Phenomena; Project Management Economics and Control; Materials and Corrosion Engineering; Biochemical and Environmental Engineering; Water Treatment and Pollution Control. This conference consists of two volume and 1534 pages., figs., tabs., refs

Predicting volume of distribution with decision tree-based regression methods using predicted tissue:plasma partition coefficients.

Science.gov (United States)

Freitas, Alex A; Limbu, Kriti; Ghafourian, Taravat

2015-01-01

Volume of distribution is an important pharmacokinetic property that indicates the extent of a drug's distribution in the body tissues. This paper addresses the problem of how to estimate the apparent volume of distribution at steady state (Vss) of chemical compounds in the human body using decision tree-based regression methods from the area of data mining (or machine learning). Hence, the pros and cons of several different types of decision tree-based regression methods have been discussed. The regression methods predict Vss using, as predictive features, both the compounds' molecular descriptors and the compounds' tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kt:p) - often used in physiologically-based pharmacokinetics. Therefore, this work has assessed whether the data mining-based prediction of Vss can be made more accurate by using as input not only the compounds' molecular descriptors but also (a subset of) their predicted Kt:p values. Comparison of the models that used only molecular descriptors, in particular, the Bagging decision tree (mean fold error of 2.33), with those employing predicted Kt:p values in addition to the molecular descriptors, such as the Bagging decision tree using adipose Kt:p (mean fold error of 2.29), indicated that the use of predicted Kt:p values as descriptors may be beneficial for accurate prediction of Vss using decision trees if prior feature selection is applied. Decision tree based models presented in this work have an accuracy that is reasonable and similar to the accuracy of reported Vss inter-species extrapolations in the literature. The estimation of Vss for new compounds in drug discovery will benefit from methods that are able to integrate large and varied sources of data and flexible non-linear data mining methods such as decision trees, which can produce interpretable models. Graphical AbstractDecision trees for the prediction of tissue partition coefficient and volume of distribution of drugs.

THE PREDICTION OF VOID VOLUME IN SUBCOOLED NUCLEATE POOL BOILING

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duke, E. E. [General Dynamics, San Diego, CA (United States)

1963-11-15

A three- step equation was developed that adequately describes the average volume of vapor occurring on a horizontal surface due to nucleate pool boiling of subcooled water. Since extensive bubble frequency data are lacking, the data of others were combined with experimental observations to make predictions of void volume at ambient pressure with various degrees of subcooling. (auth)

Ovarian volume and antral follicle count for the prediction of low and hyper responders with in vitro fertilization

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Elting Mariet E

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The current study was designed to compare antral follicle count (AFC and basal ovarian volume (BOV, the exogenous FSH ovarian reserve test (EFORT and the clomiphene citrate challenge test (CCCT, with respect to their ability to predict poor and hyper responders. Methods One hundred and ten regularly menstruating patients, aged 18–39 years, participated in this prospective study, randomized, by a computer designed 4-blocks system study into two groups. Fifty six patients underwent a CCCT, and 54 patients underwent an EFORT. All patients underwent a transvaginal sonography to measure the basal ovarian volume and count of basal antral follicle. In all patients, the test was followed by a standard IVF treatment. The result of ovarian hyperstimulation during IVF treatment, expressed by the total number of follicles, was used as gold standard. Results The best prediction of ovarian reserve (Y was seen in a multiple regression prediction model that included, AFC, Inhibin B-increment in the EFORT and BOV simultaneously (Y = -3.161 + 0.805 × AFC (0.258-1.352 + 0.034 × Inh. B-incr. (0.007-0.601 + 0.511 BOV (0.480-0.974 (r = 0.848, p Conclusion In conclusion AFC performs well as a test for ovarian response being superior or at least similar to complex expensive and time consuming endocrine tests. It is therefore likely to be the test for general practise.

Measurement of lung volume by lung perfusion scanning using SPECT and prediction of postoperative respiratory function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andou, Akio; Shimizu, Nobuyosi; Maruyama, Shuichiro

1992-01-01

Measurement of lung volume by lung perfusion scanning using single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and its usefulness for the prediction of respiratory function after lung resection were investigated. The lung volumes calculated in 5 patients by SPECT (threshold level 20%) using 99m Tc-macroaggregated albumin (MAA), related very closely to the actually measured lung volumes. This results prompted us to calculate the total lung volume and the volume of the lobe to be resected in 18 patients with lung cancer by SPECT. Based on the data obtained, postoperative respiratory function was predicted. The predicted values of forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume (FEV 1.0 ), and maximum vital volume (MVV) showed closer correlations with the actually measured postoperative values (FVC, FEV 1.0 , MVV : r=0.944, r=0.917, r=0.795 respectively), than the values predicted by the ordinary lung perfusion scanning. This method facilitates more detailed evaluation of local lung function on a lobe-by-lobe basis, and can be applied clinically to predict postoperative respiratory function. (author)

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

Early changes of parotid density and volume predict modifications at the end of therapy and intensity of acute xerostomia.

Science.gov (United States)

Belli, Maria Luisa; Scalco, Elisa; Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Fiorino, Claudio; Broggi, Sara; Dinapoli, Nicola; Ricchetti, Francesco; Valentini, Vincenzo; Rizzo, Giovanna; Cattaneo, Giovanni Mauro

2014-10-01

To quantitatively assess the predictive power of early variations of parotid gland volume and density on final changes at the end of therapy and, possibly, on acute xerostomia during IMRT for head-neck cancer. Data of 92 parotids (46 patients) were available. Kinetics of the changes during treatment were described by the daily rate of density (rΔρ) and volume (rΔvol) variation based on weekly diagnostic kVCT images. Correlation between early and final changes was investigated as well as the correlation with prospective toxicity data (CTCAEv3.0) collected weekly during treatment for 24/46 patients. A higher rΔρ was observed during the first compared to last week of treatment (-0,50 vs -0,05HU, p-value = 0.0001). Based on early variations, a good estimation of the final changes may be obtained (Δρ: AUC = 0.82, p = 0.0001; Δvol: AUC = 0.77, p = 0.0001). Both early rΔρ and rΔvol predict a higher "mean" acute xerostomia score (≥ median value, 1.57; p-value = 0.01). Median early density rate changes for patients with mean xerostomia score ≥ / xerostomia is well predicted by higher rΔρ and rΔvol in the first two weeks of treatment: best cut-off values were -0.50 HU/day and -380 mm(3)/day for rΔρ and rΔvol respectively. Further studies are necessary to definitively assess the potential of early density/volume changes in identifying more sensitive patients at higher risk of experiencing xerostomia.

Disorganized Attachment in Infancy Predicts Greater Amygdala Volume in Adulthood

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Lyons-Ruth, K.; Pechtel, P.; Yoon, S.A.; Anderson, C.M.; Teicher, M.H.

2016-01-01

Early life stress in rodents is associated with increased amygdala volume in adulthood. In humans, the amygdala develops rapidly during the first two years of life. Thus, disturbed care during this period may be particularly important to amygdala development. In the context of a 30-year longitudinal study of impoverished, highly stressed families, we assessed whether disorganization of the attachment relationship in infancy was related to amygdala volume in adulthood. Amygdala volumes were assessed among 18 low-income young adults (8M/10F, 29.33±0.49 years) first observed in infancy (8.5±5.6 months) and followed longitudinally to age 29. In infancy (18.58±1.02 mos), both disorganized infant attachment behavior and disrupted maternal communication were assessed in the standard Strange Situation Procedure (SSP). Increased left amygdala volume in adulthood was associated with both maternal and infant components of disorganized attachment interactions at 18 months of age (overall r = .679, p attachment disturbance in adolescence, were not significantly related to left amygdala volume. Left amygdala volume was further associated with dissociation and limbic irritability in adulthood. Finally, left amygdala volume mediated the prediction from attachment disturbance in infancy to limbic irritability in adulthood. Results point to the likely importance of quality of early care for amygdala development in human children as well as in rodents. The long-term prediction found here suggests that the first two years of life may be an early sensitive period for amygdala development during which clinical intervention could have particularly important consequences for later child outcomes. PMID:27060720

Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 3; Validation and Test Cases

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Bruce L.

2010-01-01

Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the third volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by validation studies that were done on three fan rigs. It concludes with recommended improvements and additional studies for BFaNS.

Sensitivity Analysis of Wavelet Neural Network Model for Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinxing Shen

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve a more accurate and robust traffic volume prediction model, the sensitivity of wavelet neural network model (WNNM is analyzed in this study. Based on real loop detector data which is provided by traffic police detachment of Maanshan, WNNM is discussed with different numbers of input neurons, different number of hidden neurons, and traffic volume for different time intervals. The test results show that the performance of WNNM depends heavily on network parameters and time interval of traffic volume. In addition, the WNNM with 4 input neurons and 6 hidden neurons is the optimal predictor with more accuracy, stability, and adaptability. At the same time, a much better prediction record will be achieved with the time interval of traffic volume are 15 minutes. In addition, the optimized WNNM is compared with the widely used back-propagation neural network (BPNN. The comparison results indicated that WNNM produce much lower values of MAE, MAPE, and VAPE than BPNN, which proves that WNNM performs better on short-term traffic volume prediction.

Predicting the outcome of chronic kidney disease by the estimated nephron number: The rationale and design of PRONEP, a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

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Imasawa Toshiyuki

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The nephron number is thought to be associated with the outcome of chronic kidney disease (CKD. If the nephron number can be estimated in the clinical setting, it could become a strong tool to predict renal outcome. This study was designed to estimate the nephron number in CKD patients and to establish a method to predict the outcome by using the estimated nephron number. Methods/Design The hypothesis of this study is that the estimated nephron number can predict the outcome of a CKD patient. This will be a multicenter, prospective (minimum 3 and maximum 5 years follow-up study. The subjects will comprise CKD patients aged over 14 years who have undergone a kidney biopsy. From January 2011 to March 2013, we will recruit 600 CKD patients from 10 hospitals belonging to the National Hospital Organization of Japan. The primary parameter for assessment is the composite of total mortality, renal death, cerebro-cardiovascular events, and a 50% reduction in the eGFR. The secondary parameter is the rate of eGFR decline per year. The nephron number will be estimated by the glomerular density in biopsy specimens and the renal cortex volume. This study includes one sub-cohort study to establish the equation to calculate the renal cortex volume. Enrollment will be performed at the time of the kidney biopsy, and the data will consist of a medical interview, ultrasound for measurement of the kidney size, blood or urine test, and the pathological findings of the kidney biopsy. Patients will continue to have medical consultations and receive examinations and/or treatment as usual. The data from the patients will be collected once a year after the kidney biopsy until March 2016. All data using this study are easily obtained in routine clinical practice. Discussion This study includes the first trials to estimate the renal cortex volume and nephron number in the general clinical setting. Furthermore, this is the first prospective study to

Persistent type II endoleak after EVAR: the predictive value of the AAA thrombus volume.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallitto, Enrico; Gargiulo, Mauro; Mascoli, Chiara; Freyrie, Antonio; DE Matteis, Massimo; Serra, Carla; Bianchini Massoni, Claudio; Faggioli, Gianluca; Stella, Andrea

2018-02-01

Persistent type II endoleaks (ELIIp, ≥6 months) after an endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) can be associated with adverse outcomes. The aims of this study are the evaluation of the incidence of ELIIp, their preoperative morphological predictive features (PMF) and the post-EVAR abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) evolution in the presence of ELIIp. Patients underwent EVAR between 2008 and 2010 were prospectively collected. Cases with ELIIp (group A: AG) were identified. A control group without ELIIp (group B: BG), homogeneous for clinical characteristics, follow-up timing and methods (CTA and/or CEUS at 6.12 months and yearly thereafter) was retrospectively selected. The PMF evaluated by computed-tomography-angiography (CTA) were: AAA-diameter, number and diameter of AAA efferent patent vessels (EPV), AAA-total volume (TV), AAA-thrombus volume (THV) and TV/THV rate (%VR). Volumes were calculated by the dedicated vessels analysis software. AG and BG were compared. The primary endpoint was to evaluate the incidence of ELIIp. Secondary endpoints were to analyze the relation between PMF and ELIIp and to assess the post-EVAR AAA-evolution in the presence of ELIIp. Between 2008 and 2010, 200 patients underwent EVAR to treat AAA electively. An ELIIp was detected in 35cases (17.5%) (AG). Twenty-seven patients (13.5%) were included in BG. An overall of 62 patients (GA+GB) were analyzed. The mean pre-operative AAA diameter and EPV were 58±11.6 mm and 5.5±1.8 mm, respectively. The mean TV and THV were 187±111.5 cc and 82±75 cc, respectively. The median %VR was 42.3%. ELIIp was correlated to EPV≥6 (χ2, p=.015) and %VR AAA growth post-EVAR. ELIIp is a not rare complication and it could require re-interventions. Our data suggest that VEP≥6 or %VT<40% are risk factors for ELIIp. No PMF was able to predict the ELIIp evolution. The relative high rate of re-interventions, could suggest the need of adjunctive/preventing primary procedures in patients at high-risk for ELIIp.

Optimisation of the link volume for weakest link failure prediction in NBG-18 nuclear graphite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hindley, Michael P.; Groenwold, Albert A.; Blaine, Deborah C.; Becker, Thorsten H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the process for approximating the optimal size of a link volume required for weakest link failure calculation in nuclear graphite, with NBG-18 used as an example. As part of the failure methodology, the link volume is defined in terms of two grouping criteria. The first criterion is a factor of the maximum grain size and the second criterion is a function of an equivalent stress limit. A methodology for approximating these grouping criteria is presented. The failure methodology employs finite element analysis (FEA) in order to predict the failure load, at 50% probability of failure. The average experimental failure load, as determined for 26 test geometries, is used to evaluate the accuracy of the weakest link failure calculations. The influence of the two grouping criteria on the failure load prediction is evaluated by defining an error in prediction across all test cases. Mathematical optimisation is used to find the minimum error across a range of test case failure predictions. This minimum error is shown to deliver the most accurate failure prediction across a whole range of components, although some test cases in the range predict conservative failure load. The mathematical optimisation objective function is penalised to account for non-conservative prediction of the failure load for any test case. The optimisation is repeated and a link volume found for conservative failure prediction. The failure prediction for each test case is evaluated, in detail, for the proposed link volumes. Based on the analysis, link design volumes for NBG-18 are recommended for either accurate or conservative failure prediction

CT angiography and CT perfusion improve prediction of infarct volume in patients with anterior circulation stroke

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seeters, Tom van; Schaaf, Irene C. van der; Dankbaar, Jan Willem; Horsch, Alexander D.; Niesten, Joris M.; Luitse, Merel J.A.; Mali, Willem P.T.M.; Velthuis, Birgitta K. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Biessels, Geert Jan; Kappelle, L.J. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Neurology, Brain Center Rudolf Magnus, Utrecht (Netherlands); Majoie, Charles B.L.M. [Academic Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Vos, Jan Albert [St. Antonius Hospital, Department of Radiology, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Schonewille, Wouter J. [St. Antonius Hospital, Department of Neurology, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Walderveen, Marianne A.A. van [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Leiden (Netherlands); Wermer, Marieke J.H. [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Leiden (Netherlands); Duijm, Lucien E.M. [Catharina Hospital, Department of Radiology, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Keizer, Koos [Catharina Hospital, Department of Neurology, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Bot, Joseph C.J. [VU University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Visser, Marieke C. [VU University Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Lugt, Aad van der [Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Dippel, Diederik W.J. [Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Kesselring, F.O.H.W. [Rijnstate Hospital, Department of Radiology, Arnhem (Netherlands); Hofmeijer, Jeannette [Rijnstate Hospital, Department of Neurology, Arnhem (Netherlands); Lycklama a Nijeholt, Geert J. [Medical Center Haaglanden, Department of Radiology, The Hague (Netherlands); Boiten, Jelis [Medical Center Haaglanden, Department of Neurology, The Hague (Netherlands); Rooij, Willem Jan van [St. Elisabeth Hospital, Department of Radiology, Tilburg (Netherlands); Kort, Paul L.M. de [St. Elisabeth Hospital, Department of Neurology, Tilburg (Netherlands); Roos, Yvo B.W.E.M. [Academic Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Meijer, Frederick J.A. [Radboud University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Pleiter, C.C. [St. Franciscus Hospital, Department of Radiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Graaf, Yolanda van der [University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht (Netherlands); Collaboration: Dutch acute stroke study (DUST) investigators

2016-04-15

We investigated whether baseline CT angiography (CTA) and CT perfusion (CTP) in acute ischemic stroke could improve prediction of infarct presence and infarct volume on follow-up imaging. We analyzed 906 patients with suspected anterior circulation stroke from the prospective multicenter Dutch acute stroke study (DUST). All patients underwent baseline non-contrast CT, CTA, and CTP and follow-up non-contrast CT/MRI after 3 days. Multivariable regression models were developed including patient characteristics and non-contrast CT, and subsequently, CTA and CTP measures were added. The increase in area under the curve (AUC) and R{sup 2} was assessed to determine the additional value of CTA and CTP. At follow-up, 612 patients (67.5 %) had a detectable infarct on CT/MRI; median infarct volume was 14.8 mL (interquartile range (IQR) 2.8-69.6). Regarding infarct presence, the AUC of 0.82 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.85) for patient characteristics and non-contrast CT was improved with addition of CTA measures (AUC 0.85 (95 % CI 0.82-0.87); p < 0.001) and was even higher after addition of CTP measures (AUC 0.89 (95 % CI 0.87-0.91); p < 0.001) and combined CTA/CTP measures (AUC 0.89 (95 % CI 0.87-0.91); p < 0.001). For infarct volume, adding combined CTA/CTP measures (R{sup 2} = 0.58) was superior to patient characteristics and non-contrast CT alone (R{sup 2} = 0.44) and to addition of CTA alone (R{sup 2} = 0.55) or CTP alone (R{sup 2} = 0.54; all p < 0.001). In the acute stage, CTA and CTP have additional value over patient characteristics and non-contrast CT for predicting infarct presence and infarct volume on follow-up imaging. These findings could be applied for patient selection in future trials on ischemic stroke treatment. (orig.)

Evaluation of stroke volume variation obtained by arterial pulse contour analysis to predict fluid responsiveness intraoperatively.

Science.gov (United States)

Lahner, D; Kabon, B; Marschalek, C; Chiari, A; Pestel, G; Kaider, A; Fleischmann, E; Hetz, H

2009-09-01

Fluid management guided by oesophageal Doppler monitor has been reported to improve perioperative outcome. Stroke volume variation (SVV) is considered a reliable clinical predictor of fluid responsiveness. Consequently, the aim of the present trial was to evaluate the accuracy of SVV determined by arterial pulse contour (APCO) analysis, using the FloTrac/Vigileo system, to predict fluid responsiveness as measured by the oesophageal Doppler. Patients undergoing major abdominal surgery received intraoperative fluid management guided by oesophageal Doppler monitoring. Fluid boluses of 250 ml each were administered in case of a decrease in corrected flow time (FTc) to 10%. The ability of SVV to predict fluid responsiveness was assessed by calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Twenty patients received 67 fluid boluses. Fifty-two of the 67 fluid boluses administered resulted in fluid responsiveness. SVV achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.512 [confidence interval (CI) 0.32-0.70]. A cut-off point for fluid responsiveness was found for SVV > or =8.5% (sensitivity: 77%; specificity: 43%; positive predictive value: 84%; and negative predictive value: 33%). This prospective, interventional observer-blinded study demonstrates that SVV obtained by APCO, using the FloTrac/Vigileo system, is not a reliable predictor of fluid responsiveness in the setting of major abdominal surgery.

Shame and guilt as shared vulnerability factors: Shame, but not guilt, prospectively predicts both social anxiety and bulimic symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Levinson, Cheri A; Byrne, Meghan; Rodebaugh, Thomas L

2016-08-01

Social anxiety disorder (SAD) and bulimia nervosa (BN) are highly comorbid. However, little is known about the shared vulnerability factors that prospectively predict both SA and BN symptoms. Two potential factors that have not yet been tested are shame and guilt. In the current study we tested if shame and guilt were shared vulnerability factors for SA and BN symptoms. Women (N=300) completed measures of SA symptoms, BN symptoms, state shame and guilt, and trait negative affect at two time points, two months apart. Utilizing structural equation modeling we tested a cross-sectional and prospective model of SA and BN vulnerability. We found that shame prospectively predicted both SA and BN symptoms. We did not find that guilt prospectively predicted SA or BN symptoms. However, higher levels of both BN and SA symptoms predicted increased guilt over time. We found support for shame as a shared prospective vulnerability factor between BN and SA symptoms. Interventions that focus on decreasing shame could potentially alleviate symptoms of BN and SA in one protocol. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Critical combinations of radiation dose and volume predict intelligence quotient and academic achievement scores after craniospinal irradiation in children with medulloblastoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Merchant, Thomas E; Schreiber, Jane E; Wu, Shengjie; Lukose, Renin; Xiong, Xiaoping; Gajjar, Amar

2014-11-01

To prospectively follow children treated with craniospinal irradiation to determine critical combinations of radiation dose and volume that would predict for cognitive effects. Between 1996 and 2003, 58 patients (median age 8.14 years, range 3.99-20.11 years) with medulloblastoma received risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation followed by dose-intense chemotherapy and were followed longitudinally with multiple cognitive evaluations (through 5 years after treatment) that included intelligence quotient (estimated intelligence quotient, full-scale, verbal, and performance) and academic achievement (math, reading, spelling) tests. Craniospinal irradiation consisted of 23.4 Gy for average-risk patients (nonmetastatic) and 36-39.6 Gy for high-risk patients (metastatic or residual disease >1.5 cm(2)). The primary site was treated using conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy using a 2-cm clinical target volume margin. The effect of clinical variables and radiation dose to different brain volumes were modeled to estimate cognitive scores after treatment. A decline with time for all test scores was observed for the entire cohort. Sex, race, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt status had a significant impact on baseline scores. Age and mean radiation dose to specific brain volumes, including the temporal lobes and hippocampi, had a significant impact on longitudinal scores. Dichotomized dose distributions at 25 Gy, 35 Gy, 45 Gy, and 55 Gy were modeled to show the impact of the high-dose volume on longitudinal test scores. The 50% risk of a below-normal cognitive test score was calculated according to mean dose and dose intervals between 25 Gy and 55 Gy at 10-Gy increments according to brain volume and age. The ability to predict cognitive outcomes in children with medulloblastoma using dose-effects models for different brain subvolumes will improve treatment planning, guide intervention, and help estimate the value of newer methods of irradiation. Copyright © 2014

Dose-volume effects for pelvic bone marrow in predicting hematological toxicity in prostate cancer radiotherapy with pelvic node irradiation.

Science.gov (United States)

Sini, Carla; Fiorino, Claudio; Perna, Lucia; Noris Chiorda, Barbara; Deantoni, Chiara Lucrezia; Bianchi, Marco; Sacco, Vincenzo; Briganti, Alberto; Montorsi, Francesco; Calandrino, Riccardo; Di Muzio, Nadia; Cozzarini, Cesare

2016-01-01

To prospectively identify clinical/dosimetric predictors of acute/late hematologic toxicity (HT) in chemo-naÏve patients treated with whole-pelvis radiotherapy (WPRT) for prostate cancer. Data of 121 patients treated with adjuvant/salvage WPRT were analyzed (static-field IMRT n=19; VMAT/Rapidarc n=57; Tomotherapy n=45). Pelvic bone marrow (BM) was delineated as ilium (IL), lumbosacral, lower and whole pelvis (WP), and the relative DVHs were calculated. HT was graded both according to CTCAE v4.03 and as variation in percentage relative to baseline. Logistic regression was used to analyze association between HT and clinical/DVHs factors. Significant differences (p<0.005) in the DVH of BM volumes between different techniques were found: Tomotherapy was associated with larger volumes receiving low doses (3-20 Gy) and smaller receiving 40-50 Gy. Lower baseline absolute values of WBC, neutrophils and lymphocytes (ALC) predicted acute/late HT (p ⩽ 0.001). Higher BM V40 was associated with higher risk of acute Grade3 (OR=1.018) or late Grade2 lymphopenia (OR=1.005). Two models predicting lymphopenia were developed, both including baseline ALC, and BM WP-V40 (AUC=0.73) and IL-V40+smoking (AUC=0.904) for acute/late respectively. Specific regions of pelvic BM predicting acute/late lymphopenia, a risk factor for viral infections, were identified. The 2-variable models including specific constraints to BM may help reduce HT. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of tumour volume on prediction of progression-free survival in sinonasal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hennersdorf, Florian; Mauz, Paul-Stefan; Adam, Patrick; Welz, Stefan; Sievert, Anne; Ernemann, Ulrike; Bisdas, Sotirios

2015-01-01

The present study aimed to analyse potential prognostic factors, with emphasis on tumour volume, in determining progression free survival (PFS) for malignancies of the nasal cavity and the paranasal sinuses. Retrospective analysis of 106 patients with primary sinonasal malignancies treated and followed-up between March 2006 and October 2012. Possible predictive parameters for PFS were entered into univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis included age, sex, baseline tumour volume (based on MR imaging), histology type, TNM stage and prognostic groups according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) classification. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis concerning the predictive value of tumour volume for recurrence was also conducted. The main histological subgroup consisted of epithelial tumours (77%). The majority of the patients (68%) showed advanced tumour burden (AJCC stage III–IV). Lymph node involvement was present in 18 cases. The mean tumour volume was 26.6 ± 21.2 cm 3 . The median PFS for all patients was 24.9 months (range: 2.5–84.5 months). The ROC curve analysis for the tumour volume showed 58.1% sensitivity and 75.4% specificity for predicting recurrence. Tumour volume, AJCC staging, T- and N- stage were significant predictors in the univariate analysis. Positive lymph node status and tumour volume remained significant and independent predictors in the multivariate analysis. Radiological tumour volume proofed to be a statistically reliable predictor of PFS. In the multivariate analysis, T-, N- and overall AJCC staging did not show significant prognostic value

Variation in Annual Volume at a University Hospital Does Not Predict Mortality for Pancreatic Resections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rita A. Mukhtar

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Annual volume of pancreatic resections has been shown to affect mortality rates, prompting recommendations to regionalize these procedures to high-volume hospitals. Implementation has been difficult, given the paucity of high-volume centers and the logistical hardships facing patients. Some studies have shown that low-volume hospitals achieve good outcomes as well, suggesting that other factors are involved. We sought to determine whether variations in annual volume affected patient outcomes in 511 patients who underwent pancreatic resections at the University of California, San Francisco between 1990 and 2005. We compared postoperative mortality and complication rates between low, medium, or high volume years, designated by the number of resections performed, adjusting for patient characteristics. Postoperative mortality rates did not differ between high volume years and medium/low volume years. As annual hospital volume of pancreatic resections may not predict outcome, identification of actual predictive factors may allow low-volume centers to achieve excellent outcomes.

Long-term results of preventive embolization of renal angiomyolipomas: evaluation of predictive factors of volume decrease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hocquelet, A.; Cornelis, F.; Le Bras, Y.; Meyer, M.; Tricaud, E.; Lasserre, A.S.; Grenier, N. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Urology and Vascular Imaging, Bordeaux (France); Ferriere, J.M.; Robert, G. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Urology Service, Bordeaux (France)

2014-08-15

To evaluate the efficacy of selective arterial embolization (SAE) of angiomyolipomas based on the percentage volume reduction after embolization and to identify predictive factors of volume decrease. Patients receiving prophylactic SAE of renal angiomyolipomas were included retrospectively over 3 years. The volume change after SAE and haemorrhagic or surgical events were recorded. Initial tumour volume, percentage tumour fat content, mean tumour density, embolic agent used, number of angiomyolipomas and tuberous sclerosis disease were evaluated as predictive factors of volume decrease. A total of 19 patients with 39 angiomyolipomas were included with median follow-up of 28 months (interquartile range 21-37 months). All treatments were technically successful (92 % primary and 8 % secondary). No distal bleeding or any increase in size or surgical nephrectomy after SAE was recorded. Mean volume reduction was 72 % (±24 %). Volumes before SAE (R{sup 2} = 0.276; p = 0.001), percentage fat content (R{sup 2} = 0.612; p < 0.0001) and mean angiomyolipoma density (R{sup 2} = 0.536; p < 0.0001) were identified as predictive factors of volume decrease. In multivariate regression, only percentage fat content influenced volume decreases. SAE is an efficient treatment for angiomyolipoma devascularisation and volume reduction. A significant reduction of volume is modulated by the initial volume and tissue composition of the tumour. (orig.)

Rumination prospectively predicts executive functioning impairments in adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Connolly, Samantha L; Wagner, Clara A; Shapero, Benjamin G; Pendergast, Laura L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2014-03-01

The current study tested the resource allocation hypothesis, examining whether baseline rumination or depressive symptom levels prospectively predicted deficits in executive functioning in an adolescent sample. The alternative to this hypothesis was also evaluated by testing whether lower initial levels of executive functioning predicted increases in rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. A community sample of 200 adolescents (ages 12-13) completed measures of depressive symptoms, rumination, and executive functioning at baseline and at a follow-up session approximately 15 months later. Adolescents with higher levels of baseline rumination displayed decreases in selective attention and attentional switching at follow-up. Rumination did not predict changes in working memory or sustained and divided attention. Depressive symptoms were not found to predict significant changes in executive functioning scores at follow-up. Baseline executive functioning was not associated with change in rumination or depression over time. Findings partially support the resource allocation hypothesis that engaging in ruminative thoughts consumes cognitive resources that would otherwise be allocated towards difficult tests of executive functioning. Support was not found for the alternative hypothesis that lower levels of initial executive functioning would predict increased rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Our study is the first to find support for the resource allocation hypothesis using a longitudinal design and an adolescent sample. Findings highlight the potentially detrimental effects of rumination on executive functioning during early adolescence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting ongoing pregnancy chances after IVF and ICSI: A national prospective study

OpenAIRE

Lintsen, Bea; Eijkemans, René; Hunault, C.C.; Bouwmans-Frijters, Clazien; Hakkaart-van Roijen, Leona; Habbema, Dik; Braat, Didi

2007-01-01

textabstractBackground: The Dutch IVF guideline suggests triage of patients for IVF based on diagnostic category, duration of infertility and female age. There is no evidence for the effectiveness of these criteria. We evaluated the predictive value of patient characteristics that are used in the Dutch IVF guideline and developed a model that predicts the IVF ongoing pregnancy chance within 12 months. Methods: In a national prospective cohort study, pregnancy chances after IVF and ICSI treatm...

Usefulness of Coronary Atheroma Burden to Predict Cardiovascular Events in Patients Presenting With Acute Coronary Syndromes (from the PROSPECT Study).

Science.gov (United States)

Shan, Peiren; Mintz, Gary S; McPherson, John A; De Bruyne, Bernard; Farhat, Naim Z; Marso, Steven P; Serruys, Patrick W; Stone, Gregg W; Maehara, Akiko

2015-12-01

We investigated the relation between overall atheroma burden and clinical events in the Providing Regional Observations to Study Predictors of Events in the Coronary Tree (PROSPECT) study. In PROSPECT, 660 patients (3,229 nonculprit lesions with a plaque burden ≥ 40% and complete intravascular ultrasound data) were divided into tertiles according to baseline percent atheroma volume (PAV: total plaque/vessel volume). Patients were followed for 3.4 years (median); major adverse cardiac events (MACE: death from cardiac causes, cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, or rehospitalization because of unstable or progressive angina) were adjudicated to either culprit or nonculprit lesions. Compared with patients in low or intermediate PAV tertiles, patients in the high PAV tertile had the greatest prevalence of plaque rupture and radiofrequency thin-cap fibroatheroma (VH-TCFA) and the highest percentage of necrotic core volume; they were also more likely to have high-risk lesion characteristics: ≥ 1 lesion with minimal luminal area ≤ 4 mm(2), plaque burden >70%, and/or VH-TCFA. Three-year cumulative nonculprit lesion-related MACE was greater in the intermediate and high tertiles than in the low tertile (6.3% vs 14.7% vs 15.1%, low vs intermediate vs high tertiles, p = 0.009). On Cox multivariable analysis, insulin-dependent diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 3.98, p = 0.002), PAV (HR 1.06, p = 0.03), and the presence of ≥1 VH-TCFA (HR 1.80, p = 0.02) were independent predictors of nonculprit MACE. In conclusion, increasing baseline overall atheroma burden was associated with more advanced, complex, and vulnerable intravascular ultrasound lesion morphology and independently predicted nonculprit lesion-related MACE in patients with acute coronary syndromes after successful culprit lesion intervention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the volume of comments on online news stories

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tsagkias, M.; Weerkamp, W.; de Rijke, M.; Cheung, D.; Song, I.-Y.; Chu, W.; Hu, X.; Lin, J.; Li, J.; Peng, Z.

2009-01-01

On-line news agents provide commenting facilities for readers to express their views with regard to news stories. The number of user supplied comments on a news article may be indicative of its importance or impact. We report on exploratory work that predicts the comment volume of news articles

Novel use of the Wii Balance Board to prospectively predict falls in community-dwelling older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwok, Boon-Chong; Clark, Ross A; Pua, Yong-Hao

2015-06-01

The Wii Balance Board has received increasing attention as a balance measurement tool; however its ability to prospectively predict falls is unknown. This exploratory study investigated the use of the Wii Balance Board and other clinical-based measures for prospectively predicting falls among community-dwelling older adults. Seventy-three community-dwelling men and women, aged 60-85years were followed-up over a year for falls. Standing balance was indexed by sway velocities measured using the Wii Balance Board interfaced with a laptop. Clinical-based measures included Short Physical Performance Battery, gait speed and Timed-Up-and-Go test. Multivariable regression analyses were used to assess the ability of the Wii Balance Board measure to complement the TUG test in fall screening. Individually, the study found Wii Balance Board anteroposterior (odds ratio 1.98, 95% CI 1.16 to 3.40, P=0.01) and mediolateral (odds ratio 2.80, 95% CI 1.10 to 7.13, p=0.03) sway velocity measures predictive of prospective falls. However, when each velocity measure was adjusted with body mass index and Timed-Up-and-Go, only anteroposterior sway velocity was predictive of prospective falls (odds ratio 2.21, 95% CI 1.18 to 4.14). A faster anteroposterior velocity was associated with increased odds of falling. Area-under-the-curves for Wii Balance Board sway velocities were 0.67 and 0.71 for anteroposterior and mediolateral respectively. The Wii Balance Board-derived anteroposterior sway velocity measure could complement existing clinical-based measures in predicting future falls among community-dwelling older adults. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number: ACTRN12610001099011. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting adult pulmonary ventilation volume and wearing complianceby on-board accelerometry during personal level exposure assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Rodes, C. E.; Chillrud, S. N.; Haskell, W. L.; Intille, S. S.; Albinali, F.; Rosenberger, M. E.

2012-09-01

BackgroundMetabolic functions typically increase with human activity, but optimal methods to characterize activity levels for real-time predictions of ventilation volume (l min-1) during exposure assessments have not been available. Could tiny, triaxial accelerometers be incorporated into personal level monitors to define periods of acceptable wearing compliance, and allow the exposures (μg m-3) to be extended to potential doses in μg min-1 kg-1 of body weight? ObjectivesIn a pilot effort, we tested: 1) whether appropriately-processed accelerometer data could be utilized to predict compliance and in linear regressions to predict ventilation volumes in real-time as an on-board component of personal level exposure sensor systems, and 2) whether locating the exposure monitors on the chest in the breathing zone, provided comparable accelerometric data to other locations more typically utilized (waist, thigh, wrist, etc.). MethodsPrototype exposure monitors from RTI International and Columbia University were worn on the chest by a pilot cohort of adults while conducting an array of scripted activities (all volumes in-situ. For the subset of participants with complete data (n = 22), linear regressions were constructed (processed accelerometric variable versus ventilation rate) for each participant and exposure monitor type, and Pearson correlations computed to compare across scenarios. ResultsTriaxial accelerometer data were demonstrated to be adequately sensitive indicators for predicting exposure monitor wearing compliance. Strong linear correlations (R values from 0.77 to 0.99) were observed for all participants for both exposure sensor accelerometer variables against ventilation volume for recumbent, sedentary, and ambulatory activities with MET values ˜volume data. Computing accelerometric standard deviations allowed good sensitivity for compliance assessments even for sedentary activities. These pilot findings supported the hypothesis that a common linear

Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying prospective memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Cona, Giorgia; Arcara, Giorgio; Tarantino, Vincenza; Bisiacchi, Patrizia S

2015-01-01

Prospective memory (PM) represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signaled by a warning cue) for some participants and was completely unpredictable for others. In the predictable cue condition, the behavioral and ERP correlates of strategic monitoring were observed mainly in the ongoing trials wherein the PM cue was expected. In the unpredictable cue condition they were instead shown throughout the whole PM block. This pattern of results suggests that, in the predictable cue condition, participants engaged monitoring only when subjected to a context wherein the PM cue was expected, and disengaged monitoring when the PM cue was not expected. Conversely, participants in the unpredictable cue condition distributed their resources for strategic monitoring in more continuous manner. The findings of this study support the most recent views-the "Dynamic Multiprocess Framework" and the "Attention to Delayed Intention" (AtoDI) model-confirming that strategic monitoring is a flexible mechanism that is recruited mainly when a PM cue is expected and that may interact with bottom-up spontaneous processes.

Prediction of Spirometric Forced Expiratory Volume (FEV1) Data Using Support Vector Regression

Science.gov (United States)

Kavitha, A.; Sujatha, C. M.; Ramakrishnan, S.

2010-01-01

In this work, prediction of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) in pulmonary function test is carried out using the spirometer and support vector regression analysis. Pulmonary function data are measured with flow volume spirometer from volunteers (N=175) using a standard data acquisition protocol. The acquired data are then used to predict FEV1. Support vector machines with polynomial kernel function with four different orders were employed to predict the values of FEV1. The performance is evaluated by computing the average prediction accuracy for normal and abnormal cases. Results show that support vector machines are capable of predicting FEV1 in both normal and abnormal cases and the average prediction accuracy for normal subjects was higher than that of abnormal subjects. Accuracy in prediction was found to be high for a regularization constant of C=10. Since FEV1 is the most significant parameter in the analysis of spirometric data, it appears that this method of assessment is useful in diagnosing the pulmonary abnormalities with incomplete data and data with poor recording.

Critical Combinations of Radiation Dose and Volume Predict Intelligence Quotient and Academic Achievement Scores After Craniospinal Irradiation in Children With Medulloblastoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Merchant, Thomas E., E-mail: thomas.merchant@stjude.org [Division of Radiation Oncology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Schreiber, Jane E. [Department of Psychology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Wu, Shengjie [Department of Biostatistcs, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Lukose, Renin [Division of Radiation Oncology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Xiong, Xiaoping [Department of Biostatistcs, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Gajjar, Amar [Department of Oncology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States)

2014-11-01

Purpose: To prospectively follow children treated with craniospinal irradiation to determine critical combinations of radiation dose and volume that would predict for cognitive effects. Methods and Materials: Between 1996 and 2003, 58 patients (median age 8.14 years, range 3.99-20.11 years) with medulloblastoma received risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation followed by dose-intense chemotherapy and were followed longitudinally with multiple cognitive evaluations (through 5 years after treatment) that included intelligence quotient (estimated intelligence quotient, full-scale, verbal, and performance) and academic achievement (math, reading, spelling) tests. Craniospinal irradiation consisted of 23.4 Gy for average-risk patients (nonmetastatic) and 36-39.6 Gy for high-risk patients (metastatic or residual disease >1.5 cm{sup 2}). The primary site was treated using conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy using a 2-cm clinical target volume margin. The effect of clinical variables and radiation dose to different brain volumes were modeled to estimate cognitive scores after treatment. Results: A decline with time for all test scores was observed for the entire cohort. Sex, race, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt status had a significant impact on baseline scores. Age and mean radiation dose to specific brain volumes, including the temporal lobes and hippocampi, had a significant impact on longitudinal scores. Dichotomized dose distributions at 25 Gy, 35 Gy, 45 Gy, and 55 Gy were modeled to show the impact of the high-dose volume on longitudinal test scores. The 50% risk of a below-normal cognitive test score was calculated according to mean dose and dose intervals between 25 Gy and 55 Gy at 10-Gy increments according to brain volume and age. Conclusions: The ability to predict cognitive outcomes in children with medulloblastoma using dose-effects models for different brain subvolumes will improve treatment planning, guide intervention, and help

Critical Combinations of Radiation Dose and Volume Predict Intelligence Quotient and Academic Achievement Scores After Craniospinal Irradiation in Children With Medulloblastoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merchant, Thomas E.; Schreiber, Jane E.; Wu, Shengjie; Lukose, Renin; Xiong, Xiaoping; Gajjar, Amar

2014-01-01

Purpose: To prospectively follow children treated with craniospinal irradiation to determine critical combinations of radiation dose and volume that would predict for cognitive effects. Methods and Materials: Between 1996 and 2003, 58 patients (median age 8.14 years, range 3.99-20.11 years) with medulloblastoma received risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation followed by dose-intense chemotherapy and were followed longitudinally with multiple cognitive evaluations (through 5 years after treatment) that included intelligence quotient (estimated intelligence quotient, full-scale, verbal, and performance) and academic achievement (math, reading, spelling) tests. Craniospinal irradiation consisted of 23.4 Gy for average-risk patients (nonmetastatic) and 36-39.6 Gy for high-risk patients (metastatic or residual disease >1.5 cm 2 ). The primary site was treated using conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy using a 2-cm clinical target volume margin. The effect of clinical variables and radiation dose to different brain volumes were modeled to estimate cognitive scores after treatment. Results: A decline with time for all test scores was observed for the entire cohort. Sex, race, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt status had a significant impact on baseline scores. Age and mean radiation dose to specific brain volumes, including the temporal lobes and hippocampi, had a significant impact on longitudinal scores. Dichotomized dose distributions at 25 Gy, 35 Gy, 45 Gy, and 55 Gy were modeled to show the impact of the high-dose volume on longitudinal test scores. The 50% risk of a below-normal cognitive test score was calculated according to mean dose and dose intervals between 25 Gy and 55 Gy at 10-Gy increments according to brain volume and age. Conclusions: The ability to predict cognitive outcomes in children with medulloblastoma using dose-effects models for different brain subvolumes will improve treatment planning, guide intervention, and help estimate

Thigh muscle volume predicted by anthropometric measurements and correlated with physical function in the older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, B B; Shih, T T F; Hsu, C Y; Yu, C W; Wei, S Y; Chen, C Y; Wu, C H; Chen, C Y

2011-06-01

(1) to correlate thigh muscle volume measured by magnetic resonance image (MRI) with anthropometric measurements and physical function in elderly subjects; (2) to predict MRI-measured thigh muscle volume using anthropometric measurements and physical functional status in elderly subjects. Cross-sectional, nonrandomized study. Outpatient clinic in Taiwan. Sixty-nine elderly subjects (33 men and 36 women) aged 65 and older. The anthropometric data (including body height, body weight, waist size, and thigh circumference), physical activity and function (including grip strength, bilateral quadriceps muscle power, the up and go test, chair rise, and five meters walk time) and bioelectrical impedance analysis data (including total body fat mass, fat-free mass, and predictive muscle size) were measured. MRI-measured muscle volume of both thighs was used as the reference standard. The MRI-measured thigh volume was positively correlated with all anthropometric data, quadriceps muscle power and the up and go test as well as fat-free mass and predictive muscle mass, whereas it was negatively associated with age and walk time. In predicting thigh muscle volume, the variables of age, gender, body weight, and thigh circumference were significant predictors in the linear regression model: Muscle volume (cm3) =4226.3－42.5 × Age (year)－955.7 × gender (male=1, female=2) + 45.9 × body weight(kg) + 60.0 × thigh circumference (cm) (r2 = 0.745, P estimate = 581.6 cm3). The current work provides evidence of a strong relationship between thigh muscle volume and physical function in the elderly. We also developed a prediction equation model using anthropometric measurements. This model is a simple and noninvasive method for everyday clinical practice and follow-up.

Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying Prospective Memory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giorgia eCona

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Prospective memory (PM represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signalled by a warning cue for some participants and was completely unpredictable for others. In the predictable cue condition, the behavioural and ERP correlates of strategic monitoring were observed mainly in the ongoing trials wherein the PM cue was expected. In the unpredictable cue condition they were instead shown throughout the whole PM block. This pattern of results suggests that, in the predictable cue condition, participants engaged monitoring only when subjected to a context wherein the PM cue was expected, and disengaged monitoring when the PM cue was not expected. Conversely, participants in the unpredictable cue condition distributed their resources for strategic monitoring in more continuous manner. The findings of this study support the most recent views – the ‘Dynamic Multiprocess Framework’ and the ‘Attention to Delayed Intention’ (AtoDI model – confirming that strategic monitoring is a flexible mechanism that is recruited mainly when a PM cue is expected and that may interact with bottom-up spontaneous processes.

Source-Specific Oppositional Defiant Disorder among Inner-City Children: Prospective Prediction and Moderation

Science.gov (United States)

Drabick, Deborah A. G.; Bubier, Jennifer; Chen, Diane; Price, Julia; Lanza, H. Isabella

2011-01-01

We examined prospective prediction from parent- and teacher-reported oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) symptoms to parent-reported ODD, conduct disorder (CD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and generalized anxiety disorder symptoms and whether child executive functioning abilities moderated these relations among an urban, low-income sample of…

Controlling factors of uranium mineralization and prospect prediction in Qimantage area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yao Chunling; Zhu Pengfei; Cai Yuqi; Zhang Wenming; Zhao Yong'an; Song Jiye; Zhang Xiaojin

2011-01-01

Based on the analysis of regional geology in Qimantage area, the condition for uranium mineralization is summarized in regional geology setting, volcanic, granite and faults. This study shows that this area has favorable prospect for uranium mineralization. The metallogenic model is built up according to the controlling factors over uranium mineralization. Under this model, six potential areas are predicted in MRAS software with mineralization factors of synthetically geological information method. (authors)

Preoperative prediction of lymph node metastasis and deep stromal invasion in women with invasive cervical cancer: prospective multicenter study using 2D and 3D ultrasound.

Science.gov (United States)

Pálsdóttir, K; Fischerova, D; Franchi, D; Testa, A; Di Legge, A; Epstein, E

2015-04-01

To determine how various objective two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) ultrasound parameters allow prediction of deep stromal tumor invasion and lymph node involvement, in comparison to subjective ultrasound assessment, in women scheduled for surgery for cervical cancer. This was a prospective multicenter trial including 104 women with cervical cancer at FIGO Stages IA2-IIB, verified histologically. Patients scheduled for surgery underwent a preoperative ultrasound examination. The value of various 2D (size, color score) and 3D (volume, vascular indices) ultrasound parameters was compared to that of subjective assessment in the prediction of deep stromal tumor invasion and lymph node involvement. Histology obtained from radical hysterectomy or trachelectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy was considered as the gold standard for assessment. All women underwent pelvic lymphadenectomy, with 99 (95%) undergoing subsequent radical surgery; five underwent only pelvic lymphadenectomy because of the presence of a positive sentinel lymph node. Women with deep stromal invasion or lymph node involvement had significantly larger tumors (diameter and volume) but there was no correlation with vascular indices measured on 3D ultrasound. Subjective evaluation was superior (AUC, 0.93; sensitivity, 90.5%; specificity, 97.2%) in the prediction of deep stromal invasion when compared to any objective measurement technique, with maximal tumor diameter at 20.5-mm cut-off (AUC, 0.83; sensitivity, 90.5%; specificity, 61.1%) and 3D tumor volume at 9.1-mm(3) cut-off (AUC, 0.85; sensitivity, 79.4%; specificity, 83.3%) providing the best performance among the objective parameters. Both subjective assessment and objective measurements were poorly predictive of lymph node involvement. In women with cervical cancer, subjective ultrasound evaluation allowed better prediction of deep stromal invasion than did objective measurements; however, neither subjective evaluation nor objective

Predictive Power of Prospective Physical Education Teachers' Attitudes towards Educational Technologies for Their Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Varol, Yaprak Kalemoglu

2015-01-01

The aim of the research is to determine the predictive power of prospective physical education teachers' attitudes towards educational technologies for their technological pedagogical content knowledge. In this study, a relational research model was used on a study group that consisted of 529 (M[subscript age]=21.49, SD=1.44) prospective physical…

Early adolescent symptoms of social phobia prospectively predict alcohol use.

Science.gov (United States)

Dahne, Jennifer; Banducci, Anne N; Kurdziel, Gretchen; MacPherson, Laura

2014-11-01

The current study examined whether social phobia (SP) symptoms in early adolescence prospectively predicted alcohol use through middle adolescence in a community sample of youth. Data from an ongoing longitudinal study (N = 277) of mechanisms of HIV-related risk behaviors in youth were used to assess the extent to which SP symptoms in early adolescence (mean [SD] age = 11.00 years [0.81]) would predict alcohol use across five annual assessment waves. Adolescents completed measures of SP symptoms, depressive symptoms, and alcohol use at each wave. Higher SP symptoms at baseline predicted higher average odds of alcohol consumption during subsequent waves but did not significantly predict an increase in the odds of alcohol use as a function of time. Within a lagged model, SP symptoms measured at a prior assessment point (1 year earlier) predicted greater odds of drinking alcohol at the following assessment point. Importantly, alcohol use did not significantly predict SP symptoms over time. These results suggest that early SP symptoms are an important risk factor for increased odds of subsequent alcohol use. The present findings highlight that elevated SP symptoms place adolescents at risk for early alcohol use. Early interventions targeting SP symptoms may be crucial for the prevention of problematic alcohol use in early to mid-adolescence. Implications for prevention and treatment approaches are discussed.

Regional hippocampal volumes and development predict learning and memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamnes, Christian K; Walhovd, Kristine B; Engvig, Andreas; Grydeland, Håkon; Krogsrud, Stine K; Østby, Ylva; Holland, Dominic; Dale, Anders M; Fjell, Anders M

2014-01-01

The hippocampus is an anatomically and functionally heterogeneous structure, but longitudinal studies of its regional development are scarce and it is not known whether protracted maturation of the hippocampus in adolescence is related to memory development. First, we investigated hippocampal subfield development using 170 longitudinally acquired brain magnetic resonance imaging scans from 85 participants aged 8-21 years. Hippocampal subfield volumes were estimated by the use of automated segmentation of 7 subfields, including the cornu ammonis (CA) sectors and the dentate gyrus (DG), while longitudinal subfield volumetric change was quantified using a nonlinear registration procedure. Second, associations between subfield volumes and change and verbal learning/memory across multiple retention intervals (5 min, 30 min and 1 week) were tested. It was hypothesized that short and intermediate memory would be more closely related to CA2-3/CA4-DG and extended, remote memory to CA1. Change rates were significantly different across hippocampal subfields, but nearly all subfields showed significant volume decreases over time throughout adolescence. Several subfield volumes were larger in the right hemisphere and in males, while for change rates there were no hemisphere or sex differences. Partly in support of the hypotheses, greater volume of CA1 and CA2-3 was related to recall and retention after an extended delay, while longitudinal reduction of CA2-3 and CA4-DG was related to learning. This suggests continued regional development of the hippocampus across adolescence and that volume and volume change in specific subfields differentially predict verbal learning and memory over different retention intervals, but future high-resolution studies are called for. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 2; BFaNS User's Manual and Developer's Guide

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Bruce L.

2010-01-01

Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the second volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by step-by-step instructions for installing and running BFaNS. It concludes with technical documentation of the BFaNS computer program.

Artificial Intelligence Can Predict Daily Trauma Volume and Average Acuity.

Science.gov (United States)

Stonko, David P; Dennis, Bradley M; Betzold, Richard D; Peetz, Allan B; Gunter, Oliver L; Guillamondegui, Oscar D

2018-04-19

The goal of this study was to integrate temporal and weather data in order to create an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict trauma volume, the number of emergent operative cases, and average daily acuity at a level 1 trauma center. Trauma admission data from TRACS and weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was collected for all adult trauma patients from July 2013-June 2016. The ANN was constructed using temporal (time, day of week), and weather factors (daily high, active precipitation) to predict four points of daily trauma activity: number of traumas, number of penetrating traumas, average ISS, and number of immediate OR cases per day. We trained a two-layer feed-forward network with 10 sigmoid hidden neurons via the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm, and performed k-fold cross validation and accuracy calculations on 100 randomly generated partitions. 10,612 patients over 1,096 days were identified. The ANN accurately predicted the daily trauma distribution in terms of number of traumas, number of penetrating traumas, number of OR cases, and average daily ISS (combined training correlation coefficient r = 0.9018+/-0.002; validation r = 0.8899+/- 0.005; testing r = 0.8940+/-0.006). We were able to successfully predict trauma and emergent operative volume, and acuity using an ANN by integrating local weather and trauma admission data from a level 1 center. As an example, for June 30, 2016, it predicted 9.93 traumas (actual: 10), and a mean ISS score of 15.99 (actual: 13.12); see figure 3. This may prove useful for predicting trauma needs across the system and hospital administration when allocating limited resources. Level III STUDY TYPE: Prognostic/Epidemiological.

Infarct volume predicts critical care needs in stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faigle, Roland; Marsh, Elisabeth B.; Llinas, Rafael H.; Urrutia, Victor C. [Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Neurology, Baltimore, MD (United States); Wozniak, Amy W. [Johns Hopkins University, Department of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (United States)

2014-10-26

Patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (IVT) for ischemic stroke are monitored in an intensive care unit (ICU) or a comparable unit capable of ICU interventions due to the high frequency of standardized neurological exams and vital sign checks. The present study evaluates quantitative infarct volume on early post-IVT MRI as a predictor of critical care needs and aims to identify patients who may not require resource intense monitoring. We identified 46 patients who underwent MRI within 6 h of IVT. Infarct volume was measured using semiautomated software. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis were used to determine factors associated with ICU needs. Infarct volume was an independent predictor of ICU need after adjusting for age, sex, race, systolic blood pressure, NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and coronary artery disease (odds ratio 1.031 per cm{sup 3} increase in volume, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.004-1.058, p = 0.024). The ROC curve with infarct volume alone achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.766 (95 % CI 0.605-0.927), while the AUC was 0.906 (95 % CI 0.814-0.998) after adjusting for race, systolic blood pressure, and NIHSS. Maximum Youden index calculations identified an optimal infarct volume cut point of 6.8 cm{sup 3} (sensitivity 75.0 %, specificity 76.7 %). Infarct volume greater than 3 cm{sup 3} predicted need for critical care interventions with 81.3 % sensitivity and 66.7 % specificity. Infarct volume may predict needs for ICU monitoring and interventions in stroke patients treated with IVT. (orig.)

Infarct volume predicts critical care needs in stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faigle, Roland; Marsh, Elisabeth B.; Llinas, Rafael H.; Urrutia, Victor C.; Wozniak, Amy W.

2015-01-01

Patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (IVT) for ischemic stroke are monitored in an intensive care unit (ICU) or a comparable unit capable of ICU interventions due to the high frequency of standardized neurological exams and vital sign checks. The present study evaluates quantitative infarct volume on early post-IVT MRI as a predictor of critical care needs and aims to identify patients who may not require resource intense monitoring. We identified 46 patients who underwent MRI within 6 h of IVT. Infarct volume was measured using semiautomated software. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis were used to determine factors associated with ICU needs. Infarct volume was an independent predictor of ICU need after adjusting for age, sex, race, systolic blood pressure, NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and coronary artery disease (odds ratio 1.031 per cm 3 increase in volume, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.004-1.058, p = 0.024). The ROC curve with infarct volume alone achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.766 (95 % CI 0.605-0.927), while the AUC was 0.906 (95 % CI 0.814-0.998) after adjusting for race, systolic blood pressure, and NIHSS. Maximum Youden index calculations identified an optimal infarct volume cut point of 6.8 cm 3 (sensitivity 75.0 %, specificity 76.7 %). Infarct volume greater than 3 cm 3 predicted need for critical care interventions with 81.3 % sensitivity and 66.7 % specificity. Infarct volume may predict needs for ICU monitoring and interventions in stroke patients treated with IVT. (orig.)

Prognostic and predictive value of liver volume on colorectal cancer patients with unresectable liver metastases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jun Su; Park, Hee Chul; Choi, Doo Ho; Park, Won; Yu, Jeong Il; Park, Young Suk; Kang, Won Ki; Park, Joon Oh

2014-01-01

To determine the prognostic and predictive value of liver volume in colorectal cancer patients with unresectable liver metastases. Sixteen patients received whole liver radiotherapy (WLRT) between January 1997 and June 2013. A total dose of 21 Gy was delivered in 7 fractions. The median survival time after WLRT was 9 weeks. In univariate analysis, performance status, serum albumin and total bilirubin level, liver volume and extrahepatic metastases were associated with survival. The mean liver volume was significantly different between subgroups with and without pain relief (3,097 and 4,739 mL, respectively; p = 0.002). A larger liver volume is a poor prognostic factor for survival and also a negative predictive factor for response to WLRT. If patients who are referred for WLRT have large liver volume, they should be informed of the poor prognosis and should be closely observed during and after WLRT.

Prognostic and predictive value of liver volume on colorectal cancer patients with unresectable liver metastases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Jun Su; Park, Hee Chul; Choi, Doo Ho; Park, Won; Yu, Jeong Il; Park, Young Suk; Kang, Won Ki; Park, Joon Oh [Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2014-06-15

To determine the prognostic and predictive value of liver volume in colorectal cancer patients with unresectable liver metastases. Sixteen patients received whole liver radiotherapy (WLRT) between January 1997 and June 2013. A total dose of 21 Gy was delivered in 7 fractions. The median survival time after WLRT was 9 weeks. In univariate analysis, performance status, serum albumin and total bilirubin level, liver volume and extrahepatic metastases were associated with survival. The mean liver volume was significantly different between subgroups with and without pain relief (3,097 and 4,739 mL, respectively; p = 0.002). A larger liver volume is a poor prognostic factor for survival and also a negative predictive factor for response to WLRT. If patients who are referred for WLRT have large liver volume, they should be informed of the poor prognosis and should be closely observed during and after WLRT.

Utilizing Forced Vital Capacity to Predict Low Lung Compliance and Select Intraoperative Tidal Volume During Thoracic Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoftman, Nir; Eikermann, Eric; Shin, John; Buckley, Jack; Navab, Kaveh; Abtin, Fereidoun; Grogan, Tristan; Cannesson, Maxime; Mahajan, Aman

2017-12-01

Tidal volume selection during mechanical ventilation utilizes dogmatic formulas that only consider a patient's predicted body weight (PBW). In this study, we investigate whether forced vital capacity (FVC) (1) correlates better to total lung capacity (TLC) than PBW, (2) predicts low pulmonary compliance, and (3) provides an alternative method for tidal volume selection. One hundred thirty thoracic surgery patients had their preoperative TLC calculated via 2 methods: (1) pulmonary function test (PFT; TLCPFT) and (2) computed tomography 3D reconstruction (TLCCT). We compared the correlation between TLC and PBW with the correlation between TLC and FVC to determine which was stronger. Dynamic pulmonary compliance was then calculated from intraoperative ventilator data and logistic regression models constructed to determine which clinical measure best predicted low compliance. Ratios of tidal volume/FVC plotted against peak inspiratory pressure were utilized to construct a new model for tidal volume selection. Calculated tidal volumes generated by this model were then compared with those generated by the standard lung-protective formula Vt = 7 cc/kg. The correlation between FVC and TLC (0.82 for TLCPFT and 0.76 for TLCCT) was stronger than the correlation between PBW and TLC (0.65 for TLCPFT and 0.58 for TLCCT). Patients with very low compliance had significantly smaller lung volumes (forced expiratory volume at 1 second, FVC, TLC) and lower diffusion capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide when compared with patients with normal compliance. An FVC cutoff of 3470 cc was 100% sensitive and 51% specific for predicting low compliance. The proposed equation Vt = FVC/8 significantly reduced calculated tidal volume by a mean of 22.5% in patients with low pulmonary compliance without affecting the mean tidal volume in patients with normal compliance (mean difference 0.9%). FVC is more strongly correlated to TLC than PBW and a cutoff of about 3.5 L can be utilized to predict

Prediction of Currency Volume Issued in Taiwan Using a Hybrid Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Regression Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuehjen E. Shao

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Because the volume of currency issued by a country always affects its interest rate, price index, income levels, and many other important macroeconomic variables, the prediction of currency volume issued has attracted considerable attention in recent years. In contrast to the typical single-stage forecast model, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting approach to predict the volume of currency issued in Taiwan. The proposed hybrid models consist of artificial neural network (ANN and multiple regression (MR components. The MR component of the hybrid models is established for a selection of fewer explanatory variables, wherein the selected variables are of higher importance. The ANN component is then designed to generate forecasts based on those important explanatory variables. Subsequently, the model is used to analyze a real dataset of Taiwan's currency from 1996 to 2011 and twenty associated explanatory variables. The prediction results reveal that the proposed hybrid scheme exhibits superior forecasting performance for predicting the volume of currency issued in Taiwan.

A prospective study of corpus callosum regional volumes and neurocognitive outcomes following cranial radiation for pediatric brain tumors.

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Rashid, Arif; Ram, Ashwin N; Kates, Wendy R; Redmond, Kristin J; Wharam, Moody; Mark Mahone, E; Horska, Alena; Terezakis, Stephanie

2017-06-01

Cranial radiation therapy (CRT) may disrupt the corpus callosum (CC), which plays an important role in basic motor and cognitive functions. The aim of this prospective longitudinal study was to assess changes in CC mid-sagittal areas, CC volumes, and performance on neuropsychological (NP) tests related to the CC in children following CRT. Twelve pediatric patients were treated with CRT for primary brain malignancies. Thirteen age-matched healthy volunteers served as controls. Brain MRIs and NP assessment emphasizing motor dexterity, processing speed, visuomotor integration, and working memory (visual and verbal) were performed at baseline and at 6, 15, and 27 months following completion of CRT. Linear mixed effects (LME) analyses were used to evaluate patient NP performance and changes in regional CC volumes (genu, anterior body, mid-body, posterior body, and splenium) and mid-sagittal areas over time and with radiation doses, correcting for age at CRT start. The mean age at CRT was 9.41 (range 1.2-15.7) years. The median prescription dose was 54 (range 18-59.4) Gy. LME analysis revealed a significant decrease in overall CC volumes over time (p memory (both p memory. Further prospective study of larger cohorts of patients is needed to establish the relationship between CRT dose, neuroanatomical, and functional changes in the CC.

Does Preinterventional Flat-Panel Computer Tomography Pooled Blood Volume Mapping Predict Final Infarct Volume After Mechanical Thrombectomy in Acute Cerebral Artery Occlusion?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, Marlies; Kyriakou, Yiannis; Mesnil de Rochemont, Richard du; Singer, Oliver C.; Berkefeld, Joachim

2013-01-01

PurposeDecreased cerebral blood volume is known to be a predictor for final infarct volume in acute cerebral artery occlusion. To evaluate the predictability of final infarct volume in patients with acute occlusion of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) or the distal internal carotid artery (ICA) and successful endovascular recanalization, pooled blood volume (PBV) was measured using flat-panel detector computed tomography (FPD CT).Materials and MethodsTwenty patients with acute unilateral occlusion of the MCA or distal ACI without demarcated infarction, as proven by CT at admission, and successful Thrombolysis in cerebral infarction score (TICI 2b or 3) endovascular thrombectomy were included. Cerebral PBV maps were acquired from each patient immediately before endovascular thrombectomy. Twenty-four hours after recanalization, each patient underwent multislice CT to visualize final infarct volume. Extent of the areas of decreased PBV was compared with the final infarct volume proven by follow-up CT the next day.ResultsIn 15 of 20 patients, areas of distinct PBV decrease corresponded to final infarct volume. In 5 patients, areas of decreased PBV overestimated final extension of ischemia probably due to inappropriate timing of data acquisition and misery perfusion.ConclusionPBV mapping using FPD CT is a promising tool to predict areas of irrecoverable brain parenchyma in acute thromboembolic stroke. Further validation is necessary before routine use for decision making for interventional thrombectomy

Examining the specific dimensions of distress tolerance that prospectively predict perceived stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Bardeen, Joseph R; Fergus, Thomas A; Orcutt, Holly K

2017-04-01

We examined five dimensions of distress tolerance (i.e. uncertainty, ambiguity, frustration, negative emotion, physical discomfort) as prospective predictors of perceived stress. Undergraduate students (N = 135) completed self-report questionnaires over the course of two assessment sessions (T1 and T2). Results of a linear regression in which the five dimensions of distress tolerance and covariates (i.e. T1 perceived stress, duration between T1 and T2) served as predictor variables and T2 perceived stress served as the outcome variable showed that intolerance of uncertainty was the only dimension of distress tolerance to predict T2 perceived stress. To better understand this prospective association, we conducted a post hoc analysis simultaneously regressing two subdimensions of intolerance of uncertainty on T2 perceived stress. The subdimension representing beliefs that "uncertainty has negative behavioral and self-referent implications" significantly predicted T2 perceived stress, while the subdimension indicating that "uncertainty is unfair and spoils everything" did not. Results support a growing body of research suggesting intolerance of uncertainty as a risk factor for a wide variety of maladaptive psychological outcomes. Clinical implications will be discussed.

Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

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Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

2017-07-01

OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

Prediction of shale prospectivity from seismically-derived reservoir and completion qualities: Application to a shale-gas field, Horn River Basin, Canada

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Mo, Cheol Hoon; Lee, Gwang H.; Jeoung, Taek Ju; Ko, Kyung Nam; Kim, Ki Soo; Park, Kyung-sick; Shin, Chang Hoon

2018-04-01

Prospective shale plays require a combination of good reservoir and completion qualities. Total organic carbon (TOC) is an important reservoir quality and brittleness is the most critical condition for completion quality. We analyzed seismically-derived brittleness and TOC to investigate the prospectivity of the Horn River Group shale (the Muskwa, Otter Park, Evie shales) of a shale-gas field in the western Horn River Basin, British Columbia, Canada. We used the λρ-μρ brittleness template, constructed from the mineralogy-based brittleness index (MBI) and elastic logs from two wells, to convert the λρ and μρ volumes from prestack seismic inversion to the volume for the brittleness petrotypes (most brittle, intermediate, and least brittle). The probability maps of the most brittle petrotype for the three shales were generated from Bayesian classification, based on the λρ-μρ template. The relationship between TOC and P-wave and S-wave velocity ratio (VP/VS) at the wells allowed the conversion of the VP/VS volume from prestack inversion to the TOC volume, which in turn was used to construct the TOC maps for the three shales. Increased TOC is correlated with high brittleness, contrasting with the commonly-held understanding. Therefore, the prospectivity of the shales in the study area can be represented by high brittleness and increased TOC. We propose a shale prospectivity index (SPI), computed by the arithmetic average of the normalized probability of the most brittle petrotype and the normalized TOC. The higher SPI corresponds to higher production rates in the Muskwa and Evie shales. The areas of the highest SPI have not been fully tested. The future drilling should be focused on these areas to increase the economic viability of the field.

Continuous electroencephalography predicts delayed cerebral ischemia after subarachnoid hemorrhage: A prospective study of diagnostic accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenthal, Eric S; Biswal, Siddharth; Zafar, Sahar F; O'Connor, Kathryn L; Bechek, Sophia; Shenoy, Apeksha V; Boyle, Emily J; Shafi, Mouhsin M; Gilmore, Emily J; Foreman, Brandon P; Gaspard, Nicolas; Leslie-Mazwi, Thabele M; Rosand, Jonathan; Hoch, Daniel B; Ayata, Cenk; Cash, Sydney S; Cole, Andrew J; Patel, Aman B; Westover, M Brandon

2018-04-16

Delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) is a common, disabling complication of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Preventing DCI is a key focus of neurocritical care, but interventions carry risk and cannot be applied indiscriminately. Although retrospective studies have identified continuous electroencephalographic (cEEG) measures associated with DCI, no study has characterized the accuracy of cEEG with sufficient rigor to justify using it to triage patients to interventions or clinical trials. We therefore prospectively assessed the accuracy of cEEG for predicting DCI, following the Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy Studies. We prospectively performed cEEG in nontraumatic, high-grade SAH patients at a single institution. The index test consisted of clinical neurophysiologists prospectively reporting prespecified EEG alarms: (1) decreasing relative alpha variability, (2) decreasing alpha-delta ratio, (3) worsening focal slowing, or (4) late appearing epileptiform abnormalities. The diagnostic reference standard was DCI determined by blinded, adjudicated review. Primary outcome measures were sensitivity and specificity of cEEG for subsequent DCI, determined by multistate survival analysis, adjusted for baseline risk. One hundred three of 227 consecutive patients were eligible and underwent cEEG monitoring (7.7-day mean duration). EEG alarms occurred in 96.2% of patients with and 19.6% without subsequent DCI (1.9-day median latency, interquartile range = 0.9-4.1). Among alarm subtypes, late onset epileptiform abnormalities had the highest predictive value. Prespecified EEG findings predicted DCI among patients with low (91% sensitivity, 83% specificity) and high (95% sensitivity, 77% specificity) baseline risk. cEEG accurately predicts DCI following SAH and may help target therapies to patients at highest risk of secondary brain injury. Ann Neurol 2018. © 2018 American Neurological Association.

Quantitative prediction of respiratory tidal volume based on the external torso volume change: a potential volumetric surrogate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Guang; Arora, Naveen C; Xie Huchen; Ning, Holly; Citrin, Deborah; Kaushal, Aradhana; Zach, Leor; Camphausen, Kevin; Miller, Robert W; Lu Wei; Low, Daniel

2009-01-01

An external respiratory surrogate that not only highly correlates with but also quantitatively predicts internal tidal volume should be useful in guiding four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT), as well as 4D radiation therapy (4DRT). A volumetric surrogate should have advantages over external fiducial point(s) for monitoring respiration-induced motion of the torso, which deforms in synchronization with a patient-specific breathing pattern. This study establishes a linear relationship between the external torso volume change (TVC) and lung air volume change (AVC) by validating a proposed volume conservation hypothesis (TVC = AVC) throughout the respiratory cycle using 4DCT and spirometry. Fourteen patients' torso 4DCT images and corresponding spirometric tidal volumes were acquired to examine this hypothesis. The 4DCT images were acquired using dual surrogates in cine mode and amplitude-based binning in 12 respiratory stages, minimizing residual motion artifacts. Torso and lung volumes were calculated using threshold-based segmentation algorithms and volume changes were calculated relative to the full-exhalation stage. The TVC and AVC, as functions of respiratory stages, were compared, showing a high correlation (r = 0.992 ± 0.005, p 2 = 0.980) without phase shift. The AVC was also compared to the spirometric tidal volumes, showing a similar linearity (slope = 1.030 ± 0.092, R 2 = 0.947). In contrast, the thoracic and abdominal heights measured from 4DCT showed relatively low correlation (0.28 ± 0.44 and 0.82 ± 0.30, respectively) and location-dependent phase shifts. This novel approach establishes the foundation for developing an external volumetric respiratory surrogate.

Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 1; Setup_BFaNS User's Manual and Developer's Guide

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Bruce L.

2010-01-01

Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the first volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User's Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by step-by-step instructions for installing and running Setup_BFaNS. It concludes with technical documentation of the Setup_BFaNS computer program.

Remnant pancreatic parenchymal volume predicts postoperative pancreatic exocrine insufficiency after pancreatectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Okano, Keisuke; Murakami, Yoshiaki; Nakagawa, Naoya; Uemura, Kenichiro; Sudo, Takeshi; Hashimoto, Yasushi; Kondo, Naru; Takahashi, Shinya; Sueda, Taijiro

2016-03-01

Pancreatectomy, including pancreatoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy, often causes postoperative pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI). Our aim was to clarify a relationship between remnant pancreatic volume and postoperative PEI. A total of 227 patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy or distal pancreatectomy were enrolled in this study. All patients underwent a (13)C-labeled mixed triglyceride breath test to assess pancreatic exocrine function and abdominal dynamic computed tomography for assessing remnant pancreatic volume after pancreatectomy at a median of 7 months postoperatively. The percent (13)CO2 cumulative dose at 7 hours (% dose (13)C cum 7 h) pancreatectomy were performed in 174 (76.7%) and 53 (23.3%) patients, respectively. Of the 227 patients, 128 (56.3%) developed postoperative PEI. Postoperative % dose (13)C cum 7 h was strongly correlated with remnant pancreatic volume (r = .509, P pancreatectomy (P pancreatectomy. Remnant pancreatic volume may predict postoperative PEI in patients who undergo pancreatectomy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional differences in brain volume predict the acquisition of skill in a complex real-time strategy videogame.

Science.gov (United States)

Basak, Chandramallika; Voss, Michelle W; Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Kramer, Arthur F

2011-08-01

Previous studies have found that differences in brain volume among older adults predict performance in laboratory tasks of executive control, memory, and motor learning. In the present study we asked whether regional differences in brain volume as assessed by the application of a voxel-based morphometry technique on high resolution MRI would also be useful in predicting the acquisition of skill in complex tasks, such as strategy-based video games. Twenty older adults were trained for over 20 h to play Rise of Nations, a complex real-time strategy game. These adults showed substantial improvements over the training period in game performance. MRI scans obtained prior to training revealed that the volume of a number of brain regions, which have been previously associated with subsets of the trained skills, predicted a substantial amount of variance in learning on the complex game. Thus, regional differences in brain volume can predict learning in complex tasks that entail the use of a variety of perceptual, cognitive and motor processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance Prediction Modelling for Flexible Pavement on Low Volume Roads Using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Makendran

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Prediction models for low volume village roads in India are developed to evaluate the progression of different types of distress such as roughness, cracking, and potholes. Even though the Government of India is investing huge quantum of money on road construction every year, poor control over the quality of road construction and its subsequent maintenance is leading to the faster road deterioration. In this regard, it is essential that scientific maintenance procedures are to be evolved on the basis of performance of low volume flexible pavements. Considering the above, an attempt has been made in this research endeavor to develop prediction models to understand the progression of roughness, cracking, and potholes in flexible pavements exposed to least or nil routine maintenance. Distress data were collected from the low volume rural roads covering about 173 stretches spread across Tamil Nadu state in India. Based on the above collected data, distress prediction models have been developed using multiple linear regression analysis. Further, the models have been validated using independent field data. It can be concluded that the models developed in this study can serve as useful tools for the practicing engineers maintaining flexible pavements on low volume roads.

Comparision between Brain Atrophy and Subdural Volume to Predict Chronic Subdural Hematoma: Volumetric CT Imaging Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ju, Min-Wook; Kim, Seon-Hwan; Kwon, Hyon-Jo; Choi, Seung-Won; Koh, Hyeon-Song; Youm, Jin-Young; Song, Shi-Hun

2015-10-01

Brain atrophy and subdural hygroma were well known factors that enlarge the subdural space, which induced formation of chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH). Thus, we identified the subdural volume that could be used to predict the rate of future CSDH after head trauma using a computed tomography (CT) volumetric analysis. A single institution case-control study was conducted involving 1,186 patients who visited our hospital after head trauma from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014. Fifty-one patients with delayed CSDH were identified, and 50 patients with age and sex matched for control. Intracranial volume (ICV), the brain parenchyme, and the subdural space were segmented using CT image-based software. To adjust for variations in head size, volume ratios were assessed as a percentage of ICV [brain volume index (BVI), subdural volume index (SVI)]. The maximum depth of the subdural space on both sides was used to estimate the SVI. Before adjusting for cranium size, brain volume tended to be smaller, and subdural space volume was significantly larger in the CSDH group (p=0.138, p=0.021, respectively). The BVI and SVI were significantly different (p=0.003, p=0.001, respectively). SVI [area under the curve (AUC), 77.3%; p=0.008] was a more reliable technique for predicting CSDH than BVI (AUC, 68.1%; p=0.001). Bilateral subdural depth (sum of subdural depth on both sides) increased linearly with SVI (pSubdural space volume was significantly larger in CSDH groups. SVI was a more reliable technique for predicting CSDH. Bilateral subdural depth was useful to measure SVI.

Inclusion of functional information from perfusion SPECT improves predictive value of dose-volume parameters in lung toxicity outcome after radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer: A prospective study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Farr, Katherina P; Kallehauge, Jesper F; Møller, Ditte S

2015-01-01

for corresponding standard parameters, but they were not significantly different from each other. CONCLUSION: SPECT-based functional parameters were better to predict the risk of RP compared to standard CT-based dose-volume parameters. Functional parameters may be useful to guide radiotherapy planning in order...

Prediction of lateral surface, volume and sphericity of pomegranate using MLP artificial neural network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A Rohani

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Fast and accurate determination of geometrical properties of agricultural products has many applications in agricultural operations like planting, cultivating, harvesting and post-harvesting. Calculations related to storing, shipping and storage-coating materials as well as peeling time and surface-microbial concentrations are some applications of estimating product volume and surface area. Sphericity is also a parameter by which the shape differences between fruits, vegetables, grains and seeds can be quantified. This parameter is important in grading systems and inspecting rolling capability of agricultural products. Bayram presented a new dimensional method and equation to calculate the sphericity of certain shapesand some granular food materials (Bayram, 2005. Kumar and Mathew proposed atheoretically soundmethod for estimating the surface area of ellipsoidal food materials (Kumar and Mathew, 2003. Clayton et al. used non-linear regression models for calculation of apple surface area using the fruit mass or volume (Clayton et al., 1995. Humeida and Hobani predicted surface area and volume of pomegranates based on the weight and geometrical diametermean (Humeida and Hobani, 1993. Wang and Nguang designeda low cost sensor system to automatically compute the volume and surface area of axi-symmetricagricultural products such as eggs, lemons, limes and tamarillos (Wang and Nguang, 2007. The main objective of this study was to investigate the potential of Artificial Neural Network (ANN technique as an alternative method to predict the volume, surface area and sphericity of pomegranates. Materials and methods: The water displacement method (WDM was used for measuring the actual volume of pomegranates. Also, the sphericity and surface area are computed by using analytical methods. In this study, the neural MLP models were designed based upon the three nominal diameters of pomegranatesas variable inputs, while the output model consisted

Volume fraction prediction in biphasic flow using nuclear technique and artificial neural network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salgado, Cesar M.; Brandao, Luis E.B.

2015-01-01

The volume fraction is one of the most important parameters used to characterize air-liquid two-phase flows. It is a physical value to determine other parameters, such as the phase's densities and to determine the flow rate of each phase. These parameters are important to predict the flow pattern and to determine a mathematical model for the system. To study, for example, heat transfer and pressure drop. This work presents a methodology for volume fractions prediction in water-gas stratified flow regime using the nuclear technique and artificial intelligence. The volume fractions calculate in biphasic flow systems is complex and the analysis by means of analytical equations becomes very difficult. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means of the artificial neural network. The detection system uses appropriate broad beam geometry, comprised of a ( 137 Cs) energy gamma-ray source and a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector in order measure transmitted beam whose the counts rates are influenced by the phases composition. These distributions are directly used by the network without any parameterization of the measured signal. The ideal and static theoretical models for stratified regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the network. The detector also was modeled with this code and the results were compared to experimental photopeak efficiency measurements of radiation sources. The proposed network could obtain with satisfactory prediction of the volume fraction in water-gas system, demonstrating to be a promising approach for this purpose. (author)

Volume fraction prediction in biphasic flow using nuclear technique and artificial neural network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salgado, Cesar M.; Brandao, Luis E.B., E-mail: otero@ien.gov.br, E-mail: brandao@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2015-07-01

The volume fraction is one of the most important parameters used to characterize air-liquid two-phase flows. It is a physical value to determine other parameters, such as the phase's densities and to determine the flow rate of each phase. These parameters are important to predict the flow pattern and to determine a mathematical model for the system. To study, for example, heat transfer and pressure drop. This work presents a methodology for volume fractions prediction in water-gas stratified flow regime using the nuclear technique and artificial intelligence. The volume fractions calculate in biphasic flow systems is complex and the analysis by means of analytical equations becomes very difficult. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means of the artificial neural network. The detection system uses appropriate broad beam geometry, comprised of a ({sup 137}Cs) energy gamma-ray source and a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector in order measure transmitted beam whose the counts rates are influenced by the phases composition. These distributions are directly used by the network without any parameterization of the measured signal. The ideal and static theoretical models for stratified regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the network. The detector also was modeled with this code and the results were compared to experimental photopeak efficiency measurements of radiation sources. The proposed network could obtain with satisfactory prediction of the volume fraction in water-gas system, demonstrating to be a promising approach for this purpose. (author)

Quantitative prediction of respiratory tidal volume based on the external torso volume change: a potential volumetric surrogate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li Guang; Arora, Naveen C; Xie Huchen; Ning, Holly; Citrin, Deborah; Kaushal, Aradhana; Zach, Leor; Camphausen, Kevin; Miller, Robert W [Radiation Oncology Branch, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States); Lu Wei; Low, Daniel [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO 63110 (United States)], E-mail: ligeorge@mail.nih.gov

2009-04-07

An external respiratory surrogate that not only highly correlates with but also quantitatively predicts internal tidal volume should be useful in guiding four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT), as well as 4D radiation therapy (4DRT). A volumetric surrogate should have advantages over external fiducial point(s) for monitoring respiration-induced motion of the torso, which deforms in synchronization with a patient-specific breathing pattern. This study establishes a linear relationship between the external torso volume change (TVC) and lung air volume change (AVC) by validating a proposed volume conservation hypothesis (TVC = AVC) throughout the respiratory cycle using 4DCT and spirometry. Fourteen patients' torso 4DCT images and corresponding spirometric tidal volumes were acquired to examine this hypothesis. The 4DCT images were acquired using dual surrogates in cine mode and amplitude-based binning in 12 respiratory stages, minimizing residual motion artifacts. Torso and lung volumes were calculated using threshold-based segmentation algorithms and volume changes were calculated relative to the full-exhalation stage. The TVC and AVC, as functions of respiratory stages, were compared, showing a high correlation (r = 0.992 {+-} 0.005, p < 0.0001) as well as a linear relationship (slope = 1.027 {+-} 0.061, R{sup 2} = 0.980) without phase shift. The AVC was also compared to the spirometric tidal volumes, showing a similar linearity (slope = 1.030 {+-} 0.092, R{sup 2} = 0.947). In contrast, the thoracic and abdominal heights measured from 4DCT showed relatively low correlation (0.28 {+-} 0.44 and 0.82 {+-} 0.30, respectively) and location-dependent phase shifts. This novel approach establishes the foundation for developing an external volumetric respiratory surrogate.

A prospective study on personality and the cortisol awakening response to predict posttraumatic stress symptoms in response to military deployment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Zuiden, Mirjam; Kavelaars, Annemieke; Rademaker, Arthur R.; Vermetten, Eric; Heijnen, Cobi J.; Geuze, Elbert

2011-01-01

Few prospective studies on pre-trauma predictors for subsequent development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have been conducted. In this study we prospectively investigated whether pre-deployment personality and the cortisol awakening response (CAR) predicted development of PTSD symptoms in

Prediction of Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Academic Success in Entering Graduate Education by Using Back-Propagation Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Bahadir, Elif

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine a neural network based approach to predict achievement in graduate education for Elementary Mathematics prospective teachers. With the help of this study, it can be possible to make an effective prediction regarding the students' achievement in graduate education with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two…

Editorial Commentary: Single-Image Slice Magnetic Resonance Imaging Assessments Do Not Predict 3-Dimensional Muscle Volume.

Science.gov (United States)

Brand, Jefferson C

2016-01-01

No single-image magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) assessment-Goutallier classification, Fuchs classification, or cross-sectional area-is predictive of whole-muscle volume or fatty atrophy of the supraspinatus or infraspinatus. Rather, 3-dimensional MRI measurement of whole-muscle volume and fat-free muscle volume is required and is associated with shoulder strength, which is clinically relevant. Three-dimensional MRI may represent a new gold standard for assessment of the rotator cuff musculature using imaging and may help to predict the feasibility of repair of a rotator cuff tear as well as the postoperative outcome. Unfortunately, 3-dimensional MRI assessment of muscle volume is labor intensive and is not widely available for clinical use. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of Anti-VEGF on Predicted Antibody Biodistribution: Roles of Vascular Volume, Interstitial Volume, and Blood Flow

Science.gov (United States)

Boswell, C. Andrew; Ferl, Gregory Z.; Mundo, Eduardo E.; Bumbaca, Daniela; Schweiger, Michelle G.; Theil, Frank-Peter; Fielder, Paul J.; Khawli, Leslie A.

2011-01-01

Background The identification of clinically meaningful and predictive models of disposition kinetics for cancer therapeutics is an ongoing pursuit in drug development. In particular, the growing interest in preclinical evaluation of anti-angiogenic agents alone or in combination with other drugs requires a complete understanding of the associated physiological consequences. Methodology/Principal Findings Technescan™ PYP™, a clinically utilized radiopharmaceutical, was used to measure tissue vascular volumes in beige nude mice that were naïve or administered a single intravenous bolus dose of a murine anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) antibody (10 mg/kg) 24 h prior to assay. Anti-VEGF had no significant effect (p>0.05) on the fractional vascular volumes of any tissues studied; these findings were further supported by single photon emission computed tomographic imaging. In addition, apart from a borderline significant increase (p = 0.048) in mean hepatic blood flow, no significant anti-VEGF-induced differences were observed (p>0.05) in two additional physiological parameters, interstitial fluid volume and the organ blood flow rate, measured using indium-111-pentetate and rubidium-86 chloride, respectively. Areas under the concentration-time curves generated by a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model changed substantially (>25%) in several tissues when model parameters describing compartmental volumes and blood flow rates were switched from literature to our experimentally derived values. However, negligible changes in predicted tissue exposure were observed when comparing simulations based on parameters measured in naïve versus anti-VEGF-administered mice. Conclusions/Significance These observations may foster an enhanced understanding of anti-VEGF effects in murine tissues and, in particular, may be useful in modeling antibody uptake alone or in combination with anti-VEGF. PMID:21436893

Short Term Prediction of Freeway Exiting Volume Based on SVM and KNN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiang Wang

2015-09-01

The model results indicate that the proposed algorithm is feasible and accurate. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error is under 10%. When comparing with the results of single KNN or SVM method, the results show that the combination of KNN and SVM can improve the reliability of the prediction significantly. The proposed method can be implemented in the on-line application of exiting volume prediction, which is able to consider different vehicle types.

Establishment the code for prediction of waste volume on NPP decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, W. H.; Park, S. K.; Choi, Y. D.; Kim, I. S.; Moon, J. K.

2013-01-01

In practice, decommissioning waste volume can be estimated appropriately by finding the differences between prediction and actual operation and considering the operational problem or supplementary matters. So in the nuclear developed countries such as U.S. or Japan, the decommissioning waste volume is predicted on the basis of the experience in their own decommissioning projects. Because of the contamination caused by radioactive material, decontamination activity and management of radio-active waste should be considered in decommissioning of nuclear facility unlike the usual plant or facility. As the decommissioning activity is performed repeatedly, data for similar activities are accumulated, and optimal strategy can be achieved by comparison with the predicted strategy. Therefore, a variety of decommissioning experiences are the most important. In Korea, there is no data on the decommissioning of commercial nuclear power plants yet. However, KAERI has accumulated the basis decommissioning data of nuclear facility through decommissioning of research reactor (KRR-2) and uranium conversion plant (UCP). And DECOMMIS(DECOMMissioning Information Management System) was developed to provide and manage the whole data of decommissioning project. Two codes, FAC code and WBS code, were established in this process. FAC code is the one which is classified by decommissioning target of nuclear facility, and WBS code is classified by each decommissioning activity. The reason why two codes where created is that the codes used in DEFACS (Decommissioning Facility Characterization management System) and DEWOCS (Decommissioning Work-unit productivity Calculation System) are different from each other, and they were classified each purpose. DEFACS which manages the facility needs the code that categorizes facility characteristics, and DEWOCS which calculates unit productivity needs the code that categorizes decommissioning waste volume. KAERI has accumulated decommissioning data of KRR

Fuzzy Regression Prediction and Application Based on Multi-Dimensional Factors of Freight Volume

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Mengting; Li, Cheng

2018-01-01

Based on the reality of the development of air cargo, the multi-dimensional fuzzy regression method is used to determine the influencing factors, and the three most important influencing factors of GDP, total fixed assets investment and regular flight route mileage are determined. The system’s viewpoints and analogy methods, the use of fuzzy numbers and multiple regression methods to predict the civil aviation cargo volume. In comparison with the 13th Five-Year Plan for China’s Civil Aviation Development (2016-2020), it is proved that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of forecasting and reduce the risk of forecasting. It is proved that this model predicts civil aviation freight volume of the feasibility, has a high practical significance and practical operation.

Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

2017-12-01

We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

Evaluation of undrilled prospects. Sensitivity to economic and geological factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hermanrud, C.; Abrahamsen, K.; Vollset, J.; Nordahl, S.; Jourdan, C.

1996-01-01

Economic prospect evaluation at an early stage involves personnel with different skills, such as geoscientists, reservoir engineers, construction engineers and economists. Data are transferred between these groups of people who often have only a vague understanding of the accuracy of the data they receive. This lack of communication naturally limits the correctness of the results. To improve this communication, the complete process of prospect evaluation (including both geological and economical aspects) has been followed here in order to show the different data sets that are transferred and to comment upon their accuracy. Although this paper is based entirely on Statoil's methodology, it is nevertheless believed to be of general relevance. In Statoil's methodology, prospect volumes calculated by geoscientists are given as likelihood distributions. Post-drilling examination of such volume distributions show that historically they have been too optimistic. However, historical prospect risking has correctly identified the most important risk factors and has been able to separate low-risk from high-risk prospects in a satisfactory manner. The number of appraisal wells that are needed before the development of a field can be decided upon is often crucial to the economic evaluations. This number, however, is usually underestimated during the early stages of exploration, probably because data limitations mask reservoir heterogeneities. Reservoir performance is of utmost importance to early economic calculations as it influences both the drilling costs and the production of hydrocarbons vs. time. Of course, reservoir productivity is highly uncertain when judged prior to drilling the first well. Historical data show that reserve estimates of producing fields tend to be upgraded as reservoir depletion proceeds, although several fields have had their reserve estimates downgraded shortly after production start-up. The operational and investment costs are not generally

Value of the regurgitant volume to end diastolic volume ratio to predict the regression of left ventricular dimensions after valve replacement in aortic insufficiency

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.M. Fioretti (Paolo); C. Tirtaman; E. Bos (Egbert); P.W.J.C. Serruys (Patrick); J.R.T.C. Roelandt (Jos)

1987-01-01

textabstractThe aim of this study was to assess the value of regurgitant stroke volume (RSV) to end-diastolic volume (EDV) ratio to predict the regression of left ventricular (LV) dimensions after uncomplicated valve replacement in 34 patients with severe pure aortic insufficiency. The RSV/EDV ratio

Risk prediction of emergency department revisit 30 days post discharge: a prospective study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shiying Hao

Full Text Available Among patients who are discharged from the Emergency Department (ED, about 3% return within 30 days. Revisits can be related to the nature of the disease, medical errors, and/or inadequate diagnoses and treatment during their initial ED visit. Identification of high-risk patient population can help device new strategies for improved ED care with reduced ED utilization.A decision tree based model with discriminant Electronic Medical Record (EMR features was developed and validated, estimating patient ED 30 day revisit risk. A retrospective cohort of 293,461 ED encounters from HealthInfoNet (HIN, Maine's Health Information Exchange (HIE, between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2012, was assembled with the associated patients' demographic information and one-year clinical histories before the discharge date as the inputs. To validate, a prospective cohort of 193,886 encounters between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013 was constructed. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective predictions were 0.710 and 0.704 respectively. Clinical resource utilization, including ED use, was analyzed as a function of the ED risk score. Cluster analysis of high-risk patients identified discrete sub-populations with distinctive demographic, clinical and resource utilization patterns.Our ED 30-day revisit model was prospectively validated on the Maine State HIN secure statewide data system. Future integration of our ED predictive analytics into the ED care work flow may lead to increased opportunities for targeted care intervention to reduce ED resource burden and overall healthcare expense, and improve outcomes.

Failure of Noninvasive Ventilation for De Novo Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure: Role of Tidal Volume.

Science.gov (United States)

Carteaux, Guillaume; Millán-Guilarte, Teresa; De Prost, Nicolas; Razazi, Keyvan; Abid, Shariq; Thille, Arnaud W; Schortgen, Frédérique; Brochard, Laurent; Brun-Buisson, Christian; Mekontso Dessap, Armand

2016-02-01

A low or moderate expired tidal volume can be difficult to achieve during noninvasive ventilation for de novo acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (i.e., not due to exacerbation of chronic lung disease or cardiac failure). We assessed expired tidal volume and its association with noninvasive ventilation outcome. Prospective observational study. Twenty-four bed university medical ICU. Consecutive patients receiving noninvasive ventilation for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure between August 2010 and February 2013. Noninvasive ventilation was uniformly delivered using a simple algorithm targeting the expired tidal volume between 6 and 8 mL/kg of predicted body weight. Expired tidal volume was averaged and respiratory and hemodynamic variables were systematically recorded at each noninvasive ventilation session. Sixty-two patients were enrolled, including 47 meeting criteria for acute respiratory distress syndrome, and 32 failed noninvasive ventilation (51%). Pneumonia (n = 51, 82%) was the main etiology of acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. The median (interquartile range) expired tidal volume averaged over all noninvasive ventilation sessions (mean expired tidal volume) was 9.8 mL/kg predicted body weight (8.1-11.1 mL/kg predicted body weight). The mean expired tidal volume was significantly higher in patients who failed noninvasive ventilation as compared with those who succeeded (10.6 mL/kg predicted body weight [9.6-12.0] vs 8.5 mL/kg predicted body weight [7.6-10.2]; p = 0.001), and expired tidal volume was independently associated with noninvasive ventilation failure in multivariate analysis. This effect was mainly driven by patients with PaO2/FIO2 up to 200 mm Hg. In these patients, the expired tidal volume above 9.5 mL/kg predicted body weight predicted noninvasive ventilation failure with a sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 87%. A low expired tidal volume is almost impossible to achieve in the majority of patients receiving noninvasive ventilation

Predicting oropharyngeal tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy from pretreatment computed tomography data using general linear models.

Science.gov (United States)

Yock, Adam D; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M; Garden, Adam S; Kudchadker, Rajat J; Court, Laurence E

2014-05-01

The purpose of this work was to develop and evaluate the accuracy of several predictive models of variation in tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy. Nineteen patients with oropharyngeal cancers were imaged daily with CT-on-rails for image-guided alignment per an institutional protocol. The daily volumes of 35 tumors in these 19 patients were determined and used to generate (1) a linear model in which tumor volume changed at a constant rate, (2) a general linear model that utilized the power fit relationship between the daily and initial tumor volumes, and (3) a functional general linear model that identified and exploited the primary modes of variation between time series describing the changing tumor volumes. Primary and nodal tumor volumes were examined separately. The accuracy of these models in predicting daily tumor volumes were compared with those of static and linear reference models using leave-one-out cross-validation. In predicting the daily volume of primary tumors, the general linear model and the functional general linear model were more accurate than the static reference model by 9.9% (range: -11.6%-23.8%) and 14.6% (range: -7.3%-27.5%), respectively, and were more accurate than the linear reference model by 14.2% (range: -6.8%-40.3%) and 13.1% (range: -1.5%-52.5%), respectively. In predicting the daily volume of nodal tumors, only the 14.4% (range: -11.1%-20.5%) improvement in accuracy of the functional general linear model compared to the static reference model was statistically significant. A general linear model and a functional general linear model trained on data from a small population of patients can predict the primary tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy with greater accuracy than standard reference models. These more accurate models may increase the prognostic value of information about the tumor garnered from pretreatment computed tomography images and facilitate improved treatment management.

Predicting oropharyngeal tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy from pretreatment computed tomography data using general linear models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

2014-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to develop and evaluate the accuracy of several predictive models of variation in tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Nineteen patients with oropharyngeal cancers were imaged daily with CT-on-rails for image-guided alignment per an institutional protocol. The daily volumes of 35 tumors in these 19 patients were determined and used to generate (1) a linear model in which tumor volume changed at a constant rate, (2) a general linear model that utilized the power fit relationship between the daily and initial tumor volumes, and (3) a functional general linear model that identified and exploited the primary modes of variation between time series describing the changing tumor volumes. Primary and nodal tumor volumes were examined separately. The accuracy of these models in predicting daily tumor volumes were compared with those of static and linear reference models using leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: In predicting the daily volume of primary tumors, the general linear model and the functional general linear model were more accurate than the static reference model by 9.9% (range: −11.6%–23.8%) and 14.6% (range: −7.3%–27.5%), respectively, and were more accurate than the linear reference model by 14.2% (range: −6.8%–40.3%) and 13.1% (range: −1.5%–52.5%), respectively. In predicting the daily volume of nodal tumors, only the 14.4% (range: −11.1%–20.5%) improvement in accuracy of the functional general linear model compared to the static reference model was statistically significant. Conclusions: A general linear model and a functional general linear model trained on data from a small population of patients can predict the primary tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy with greater accuracy than standard reference models. These more accurate models may increase the prognostic value of information about the tumor garnered from pretreatment computed tomography

Ultrasound cervical length in predicting preterm birth: Prospective study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Achour Radhouane

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Background Preterm birth is a leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality and represents a major public health problem. It is associated with a 15–20 per cent mortality rate and remains responsible for 75 per cent of perinatal deaths in foetuses without anomalies. Aims The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of cervical length measured in the first trimester (11–14 Weeks of amenorrhea “WA” and the second trimester (20–24 Weeks of amenorrhea” WA” in an asymptomatic population of singleton pregnancies to assess the risk of spontaneous preterm birth compared to the digital assessment. Methods We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study involving 117 asymptomatic women with singleton pregnancies between January and December 2015. Results In our study, the clinical examination had a low positive predictive value and a low sensibility for screening women at risk of preterm delivery. Cervical length less than 35mm between 12–14WA and 30mm between 22–24WA predicts the occurrence of preterm birth with a high sensitivity (Se, and specificity (Sp. Conclusion We conclude that ultrasound screening of preterm delivery is now highly recommended.

Energy prospects of France at the 2020-2050 vista. Reports of the Energy Commission working groups presided over by Jean Syrota - Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The two volumes of the Energy prospects of France at the 2020-2050 vista present the works carried out by the Energy commission, implemented in May 2006 by the Centre of Strategic Analysis and gathering the different actors in concern: representatives, social partners, national and European administrations, operators and industrialists, consumer associations, research organizations, etc.. The first volume is a synthesis while this second volume reprints the integral content of the five working group reports. This collective work fits inside a series of studies that the public authorities have periodically launched on the energy question. They have led to the elaboration of energy policies, still dominated by the hydrocarbon prices: ambitious and rigorous during high price eras, non-obstructive and relaxed during low price eras. Todays, the global warming dominates the energy policy. In this context, a large-scale and permanent new policy has become mandatory to reduce as quickly as possible the CO 2 emissions linked to the satisfaction of energy needs. It must definitely fit with the European framework as well. The Energy Commission recommends that France prevails upon the European Union to adopt a highly voluntaristic policy of greenhouse gases abatement at the 2050 prospects based on a fair share among the member states of the efforts to be achieved. This document includes a prospective analysis of the geopolitical situation, evaluates the technological efforts to come and lists some consistent action proposals for France and the European and national scale. (J.S.)

Can the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) predict intrapartum fetal compromise? : a prospective observational study

OpenAIRE

Page, Ann-Sophie; Page, Geert; Dehaene, Isabelle; Roets, Ellen; Roelens, Kristien

2017-01-01

Objective: To investigate the potential clinical use of serial fetal CPR measurements during the last month of pregnancy for the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome in unselected low-risk pregnancies. Methods: A multicenter prospective observational cohort study in 315 consecutively recruited low-risk pregnancies. All eligible pregnancies underwent serial sonographic evaluation of fetal weight and Doppler indices at two week intervals, from 36 weeks gestation until delivery. Data were ...

Systematic review of dose-volume parameters in the prediction of esophagitis in thoracic radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rose, Jim; Rodrigues, George; Yaremko, Brian; Lock, Michael; D'Souza, David

2009-01-01

Purpose: With dose escalation and increasing use of concurrent chemoradiotherapy, radiation esophagitis (RE) remains a common treatment-limiting acute side effect in the treatment of thoracic malignancies. The advent of 3DCT planning has enabled investigators to study esophageal dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters as predictors of RE. The purpose of this study was to assess published dosimetric parameters and toxicity data systematically in order to define reproducible predictors of RE, both for potential clinical use, and to provide recommendations for future research in the field. Materials and methods: We performed a systematic literature review of published studies addressing RE in the treatment of lung cancer and thymoma. Our search strategy included a variety of electronic medical databases, textbooks and bibliographies. Both prospective and retrospective clinical studies were included. Information relating to the relationship among measured dosimetric parameters, patient demographics, tumor characteristics, chemotherapy and RE was extracted and analyzed. Results: Eighteen published studies were suitable for analysis. Eleven of these assessed acute RE, while the remainder assessed both acute and chronic RE together. Heterogeneity of esophageal contouring practices, individual differences in information reporting and variability of RE outcome definitions were assessed. Well-described clinical and logistic modeling directly related V 35Gy , V 60Gy and SA 55Gy to clinically significant RE. Conclusions: Several reproducible dosimetric parameters exist in the literature, and these may be potentially relevant in the prediction of RE in the radiotherapy of thoracic malignancies. Further clarification of the predictive relationship between such standardized dosimetric parameters and observed RE outcomes is essential to develop efficient radiation treatment planning in locally advanced NSCLC in the modern concurrent chemotherapy and image-guided IMRT era.

Predicting Early Fatherhood and Whether Young Fathers Live with Their Children: Prospective Findings and Policy Recommendations. Discussion Paper.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaffee, Sara R.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Taylor, Alan; Dickson, Nigel

This prospective, birth cohort study addressed three questions: Which individual and family-of-origin characteristics predict the age at which young men make the transition to fatherhood? Do these characteristics predict how long young men live with their children? Are individual differences in the amount of time fathers spend living with their…

Predicting surgical site infection after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

2014-09-01

The impact of surgical site infection (SSI) is substantial. Although previous study has determined relative risk and odds ratio (OR) values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of SSI, rather than relative risk or OR values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of SSI after spine surgery. This study performs a multivariate analysis of SSI after spine surgery using a large prospective surgical registry. Using the results of this analysis, this study will then create and validate a predictive model for SSI after spine surgery. The patient sample is from a high-quality surgical registry from our two institutions with prospectively collected, detailed demographic, comorbidity, and complication data. An SSI that required return to the operating room for surgical debridement. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,532 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication details recorded for 2 years after the surgery, we identified several risk factors for SSI after multivariate analysis. Using the beta coefficients from those regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of SSI after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created a predictive model based on our beta coefficients from our multivariate analysis. The final predictive model for SSI had a receiver-operator curve characteristic of 0.72, considered to be a fair measure. The final model has been uploaded for use on SpineSage.com. We present a validated model for predicting SSI after spine surgery. The value in this model is that it gives

Mobile Phone-Based Mood Ratings Prospectively Predict Psychotherapy Attendance.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruehlman-Senecal, Emma; Aguilera, Adrian; Schueller, Stephen M

2017-09-01

Psychotherapy nonattendance is a costly and pervasive problem. While prior research has identified stable patient-level predictors of attendance, far less is known about dynamic (i.e., time-varying) factors. Identifying dynamic predictors can clarify how clinical states relate to psychotherapy attendance and inform effective "just-in-time" interventions to promote attendance. The present study examines whether daily mood, as measured by responses to automated mobile phone-based text messages, prospectively predicts attendance in group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for depression. Fifty-six Spanish-speaking Latino patients with elevated depressive symptoms (46 women, mean age=50.92years, SD=10.90years), enrolled in a manualized program of group CBT, received daily automated mood-monitoring text messages. Patients' daily mood ratings, message response rate, and delay in responding were recorded. Patients' self-reported mood the day prior to a scheduled psychotherapy session significantly predicted attendance, even after controlling for patients' prior attendance history and age (OR=1.33, 95% CI [1.04, 1.70], p=.02). Positive mood corresponded to a greater likelihood of attendance. Our results demonstrate the clinical utility of automated mood-monitoring text messages in predicting attendance. These results underscore the value of text messaging, and other mobile technologies, as adjuncts to psychotherapy. Future work should explore the use of such monitoring to guide interventions to increase attendance, and ultimately the efficacy of psychotherapy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Elevated left mid-frontal cortical activity prospectively predicts conversion to bipolar I disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Nusslock, Robin; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Alloy, Lauren B.; Urosevic, Snezana; Goldstein, Kim; Abramson, Lyn Y.

2013-01-01

Bipolar disorder is characterized by a hypersensitivity to reward-relevant cues and a propensity to experience an excessive increase in approach-related affect, which may be reflected in hypo/manic symptoms. The present study examined the relationship between relative left-frontal electroencephalographic (EEG) activity, a proposed neurophysiological index of approach-system sensitivity and approach/reward-related affect, and bipolar course and state-related variables. Fifty-eight individuals with cyclothymia or bipolar II disorder and 59 healthy control participants with no affective psychopathology completed resting EEG recordings. Alpha power was obtained and asymmetry indices computed for homologous electrodes. Bipolar spectrum participants were classified as being in a major/minor depressive episode, a hypomanic episode, or a euthymic/remitted state at EEG recording. Participants were then followed prospectively for an average 4.7 year follow-up period with diagnostic interview assessments every four-months. Sixteen bipolar spectrum participants converted to bipolar I disorder during follow-up. Consistent with hypotheses, elevated relative left-frontal EEG activity at baseline 1) prospectively predicted a greater likelihood of converting from cyclothymia or bipolar II disorder to bipolar I disorder over the 4.7 year follow-up period, 2) was associated with an earlier age-of-onset of first bipolar spectrum episode, and 3) was significantly elevated in bipolar spectrum individuals in a hypomanic episode at EEG recording. This is the first study to identify a neurophysiological marker that prospectively predicts conversion to bipolar I disorder. The fact that unipolar depression is characterized by decreased relative left-frontal EEG activity suggests that unipolar depression and vulnerability to hypo/mania may be characterized by different profiles of frontal EEG asymmetry. PMID:22775582

Lung perfusion SPECT in predicting postoperative pulmonary function in lung cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirose, Yoshiaki; Imaeda, Takeyoshi; Doi, Hidetaka; Kokubo, Mitsuharu; Sakai, Satoshi; Hirose, Hajime

1993-01-01

The aim of this prospective study is to evaluate the availability of preoperative perfusion SPECT in predicting postoperative pulmonary function following resection. Twenty-three patients with lung cancer who were candidates for lobectomy were investigated preoperatively with spirometry, x-ray computed tomography and 99m Tc-macroaggregated albumin SPECT. Their postoperative pulmonary functions were predicted with these examinations. The forced vital capacity and the forced expiratory volume in one second were selected as parameters for overall pulmonary function. The postoperative pulmonary function was predicted by the following formula: Predicted postoperative value=observed preoperative value x precent perfusion of the lung not to be resected. The patients were reinvestigated with spirometry at 3 months and 6 months after lobectomy, and the values obtained were statistically compared with the predicted values. Close relationships were found between predicted and observed forced vital capacity (r=0.87, p<0.001), and predicted and observed forced expiratory volume in one second (r=0.90, p<0.001). The accurate prediction of pulmonary function after lobectomy could be achieved by means of lung perfusion SPECT. (author)

Low self-esteem prospectively predicts depression in adolescence and young adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Ulrich; Robins, Richard W; Roberts, Brent W

2008-09-01

Low self-esteem and depression are strongly correlated in cross-sectional studies, yet little is known about their prospective effects on each other. The vulnerability model hypothesizes that low self-esteem serves as a risk factor for depression, whereas the scar model hypothesizes that low self-esteem is an outcome, not a cause, of depression. To test these models, the authors used 2 large longitudinal data sets, each with 4 repeated assessments between the ages of 15 and 21 years and 18 and 21 years, respectively. Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that low self-esteem predicted subsequent levels of depression, but depression did not predict subsequent levels of self-esteem. These findings held for both men and women and after controlling for content overlap between the self-esteem and depression scales. Thus, the results supported the vulnerability model, but not the scar model, of self-esteem and depression.

Prediction of language and neurologic recovery after cerebral infarction with SPECT imaging using N-isopropyl-p-(I-123) iodoamphetamine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bushnell, D.L.; Gupta, S.; Mlcoch, A.G.; Barnes, W.E.

1989-01-01

Fourteen patients (10 with left-sided and 4 with right-sided cerebral infarction) were prospectively studied with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) using N-isopropyl-p-(I-123) iodoamphetamine (IMP, SPECTamine) to determine its usefulness in predicting neurologic/language recovery after cerebral infarction. All neuro-SPECT imaging was performed within 30 days after infarction. Detailed assessment of neurologic and/or language recovery (after 3 months) was carried out prospectively in each patient. Patients with smaller volume IMP defects in the region of infarction demonstrated significantly better neurologic and language recovery than patients with large IMP defects. Analysis of the IMP ''redistribution'' phenomenon failed to demonstrate definitively a relationship with clinical recovery. It was concluded that the volume of the IMP defect can aid in predicting recovery potential after cerebral infarction

Dosimetric factors predictive of late toxicity in prostate cancer radiotherapy; Radiotherapie prostatique: prediction de la toxicite tardive a partir des donnees dosimetriques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crevoisier, R. de [Departement de radiotherapie, centre Eugene-Marquis, 35 - Rennes (France); Inserm, U 642, 35 - Rennes (France); Fiorino, C. [Medical Physics Department, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Melghera, Milan (Italy); Dubray, B. [Departement de radiotherapie et de physique medicale, centre Henri-Becquerel, 76 - Rouen (France); EA 4108, UFR de medecine-pharmacie, QuantIF-LITIS, 76 - Rouen (France)

2010-10-15

Dose escalation in prostate cancer is made possible due to technological advances and to precise dose-volume constraints to limit normal tissue damage. This article is a literature review focusing on the correlations between exposure (doses and volumes) of organs at risk (OAR) and rectal, urinary, sexual and bone toxicity, as well as on mathematical models aiming at toxicity prediction. Dose-volume constraint recommendations are presented that have been shown to be associated with reduced rectal damage. Indeed, the clinical data is relatively strong for late rectal toxicity (bleeding), with constraints put on both the volume of the rectum receiving high doses ({>=}70 Gy) and the volume receiving intermediate doses (40 to 60 Gy). Predictive models of rectal toxicity (Normal Tissue Complication Probability) appear to accurately estimate toxicity risks. The correlations are much weaker for the bulb and the femoral heads, and nearly do not exist for the bladder. Further prospective studies are required, ideally taking into account patient-related risk factors (co-morbidities and their specific treatments), assays of normal tissue hypersensitivity to ionizing radiation and mathematical models applied on 3D images acquired under the treatment machine (e.g. Cone Beam CT). (authors)

Predicting Structure-Function Relations and Survival following Surgical and Bronchoscopic Lung Volume Reduction Treatment of Emphysema.

Science.gov (United States)

Mondoñedo, Jarred R; Suki, Béla

2017-02-01

Lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) and bronchoscopic lung volume reduction (bLVR) are palliative treatments aimed at reducing hyperinflation in advanced emphysema. Previous work has evaluated functional improvements and survival advantage for these techniques, although their effects on the micromechanical environment in the lung have yet to be determined. Here, we introduce a computational model to simulate a force-based destruction of elastic networks representing emphysema progression, which we use to track the response to lung volume reduction via LVRS and bLVR. We find that (1) LVRS efficacy can be predicted based on pre-surgical network structure; (2) macroscopic functional improvements following bLVR are related to microscopic changes in mechanical force heterogeneity; and (3) both techniques improve aspects of survival and quality of life influenced by lung compliance, albeit while accelerating disease progression. Our model predictions yield unique insights into the microscopic origins underlying emphysema progression before and after lung volume reduction.

Dark Radiation predictions from general Large Volume Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hebecker, Arthur; Mangat, Patrick; Rompineve, Fabrizio; Witkowski, Lukas T.

2014-09-01

Recent observations constrain the amount of Dark Radiation (Δ N eff ) and may even hint towards a non-zero value of Δ N eff . It is by now well-known that this puts stringent constraints on the sequestered Large Volume Scenario (LVS), i.e. on LVS realisations with the Standard Model at a singularity. We go beyond this setting by considering LVS models where SM fields are realised on 7-branes in the geometric regime. As we argue, this naturally goes together with high-scale supersymmetry. The abundance of Dark Radiation is determined by the competition between the decay of the lightest modulus to axions, to the SM Higgs and to gauge fields, and leads to strict constraints on these models. Nevertheless, these constructions can in principle meet current DR bounds due to decays into gauge bosons alone. Further, a rather robust prediction for a substantial amount of Dark Radiation can be made. This applies both to cases where the SM 4-cycles are stabilised by D-terms and are small `by accident', i.e. tuning, as well as to fibred models with the small cycles stabilised by loops. In these constructions the DR axion and the QCD axion are the same field and we require a tuning of the initial misalignment to avoid Dark Matter overproduction. Furthermore, we analyse a closely related setting where the SM lives at a singularity but couples to the volume modulus through flavour branes. We conclude that some of the most natural LVS settings with natural values of model parameters lead to Dark Radiation predictions just below the present observational limits. Barring a discovery, rather modest improvements of present Dark Radiation bounds can rule out many of these most simple and generic variants of the LVS.

Bulbar impairment score predicts noninvasive volume-cycled ventilation failure during an acute lower respiratory tract infection in ALS.

Science.gov (United States)

Servera, Emilio; Sancho, Jesús; Bañuls, Pilar; Marín, Julio

2015-11-15

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients can suffer episodes of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) leading to an acute respiratory failure (ARF) requiring noninvasive ventilation (NIV). To determine whether clinical or functional parameters can predict noninvasive management failure during LRTI causing ARF in ALS. A prospective study involving all ALS patients with ARF requiring NIV in a Respiratory Care Unit. NIV was provided with volume-cycled ventilators. 63 ALS patients were included (APACHE II: 14.93±3.56, Norris bulbar subscore (NBS): 18.78±9.68, ALSFRS-R: 19.90±6.98, %FVC: 40.01±18.07%, MIC: 1.62±0.74L, PCF 2.51±1.15L/s, PImax -34.90±19.44cmH2O, PEmax 51.20±28.84cmH2O). In 73.0% of patients NIV was successful in averting death or endotracheal intubation. Differences were found between the success and failure in the NBS (22.08±6.15 vs 8.66±3.39, pNIV failure was the NBS (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.31-0.92, p 0.002) with a cut-off point of 12 (S 0.93; E 0.97; PPV 0.76; NPV 0.97). NBS can predict noninvasive management failure during LRTI in ALS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pin on flat wear volume prediction of UHMWPE against cp Ti for orthopedic applications

Science.gov (United States)

Handoko, Suyitno, Dharmastiti, Rini; Magetsari, Rahadyan

2018-04-01

Tribological assessment of orthopedic biomaterials requires a lot of testing time. Researchers must test the biomaterials in millions of cycles at low frequency (1 Hz) to mimic the in vivo conditions. It is a problem because product designs and developments could not wait longer for wear data to predict the lifetime of their products. The problem can be solved with the use of computation techniques to model the wear phenomena and provide predicted data. The aim of this research is to predict the wear volume of the commonly used ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) sliding against commercially pure titanium (cp Ti) in the unidirectional pin on flat tests. The 9 mm diameter UHMWPE pin and cp Ti plate contact mechanics were modeled using Abaqus. Contact pressure was set at 3 MPa. Outputs of the computations (contact pressure and contact area) were used to calculate the wear volume with Archard law. A custom Python script was made to automate the process. The results were then compared with experimental data for validations. The predicted data were in a good trend with numerical errors from 0.3% up to 26%.

The predictive value of the product of contrast medium volume and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio in contrast-induced acute kidney injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chunrui; Ma, Shuai; Deng, Bo; Lu, Jianxin; Shen, Wei; Jin, Bo; Shi, Haiming; Ding, Feng

2017-11-01

Preexisting renal impairment and the amount of contrast media are the most important risk factors for contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI). We aimed to investigate whether the product of contrast medium volume and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (CMV × UACR) would be a better predictor of CI-AKI in patients undergoing nonemergency coronary interventions. This was a prospective single-center observational study, and 912 consecutive patients who were exposed to contrast media during coronary interventions were investigated prospectively. CI-AKI is defined as a 44.2 μmol/L rise in serum creatinine or a 25% increase, assessed within 48 h after administration of contrast media in the absence of other causes. Fifty patients (5.48%) developed CI-AKI. The urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) (OR = 1.002, 95% CI = 1.000-1.003, p = .012) and contrast medium volume (CMV) (OR = 1.008, 95% CI = 1.001-1.014, p = .017) were independent risk factors for the development of CI-AKI. The area under the ROC curve of CMV, UACR and CMV × UACR were 0.662 (95% CI = 0.584-0.741, p < .001), 0.761 (95% CI = 0.674-0.847, p < .001) and 0.808 (95% CI = 0.747-0.896, p < .001), respectively. The cutoff value of CMV × UACR to predict CI-AKI was 1186.2, with 80.0% sensitivity and 62.2% specificity. The product of CMV and UACR (CMV × UACR) might be a predictor of CI-AKI in patients undergoing nonemergency coronary interventions, which was superior to CMV or UACR alone.

Hopefulness predicts resilience after hereditary colorectal cancer genetic testing: a prospective outcome trajectories study

OpenAIRE

Chu Annie TW; Bonanno George A; Ho Judy WC; Ho Samuel MY; Chan Emily MS

2010-01-01

Abstract Background - Genetic testing for hereditary colorectal cancer (HCRC) had significant psychological consequences for test recipients. This prospective longitudinal study investigated the factors that predict psychological resilience in adults undergoing genetic testing for HCRC. Methods - A longitudinal study was carried out from April 2003 to August 2006 on Hong Kong Chinese HCRC family members who were recruited and offered genetic testing by the Hereditary Gastrointestinal Cancer R...

Narcissism and Callous-Unemotional Traits Prospectively Predict Child Conduct Problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Jezior, Kristen L; McKenzie, Meghan E; Lee, Steve S

2016-01-01

Although narcissism and callous-unemotional (CU) traits are separable facets of psychopathy, their independent prediction of conduct problems (CP) among young children is not well known. In addition, above-average IQ was central to the original conceptualization of psychopathy, yet IQ is typically inversely associated with youth CP. We examined narcissism and CU traits as independent and prospective predictors of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), conduct disorder (CD), and youth self-reported antisocial behavior, as well as their moderation by IQ. At baseline, parents and teachers separately rated narcissism and CU traits in 188 6-to-10-year-old children (47.9% non-White; 69.1% male; M = 7.34 years, SD = 1.09) with (n = 99) and without (n = 89) attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Approximately 2 years later, parents and teachers separately rated youth ODD and CD symptoms, and youth self-reported antisocial behavior. With control of baseline ADHD and ODD/CD symptoms, narcissism and CU traits independently and positively predicted ODD and CD symptoms at follow-up. IQ did not moderate any CP predictions from baseline narcissism or CU traits. These preliminary findings suggest that individual differences in narcissism and CU traits, even relatively early in development, are uniquely associated with emergent CP. Findings are considered within a developmental framework and the multiple pathways underlying the heterogeneity of CP are discussed.

Prediction of gas volume fraction in fully-developed gas-liquid flow in a vertical pipe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Islam, A.S.M.A.; Adoo, N.A.; Bergstrom, D.J.; Wang, D.F.

2015-01-01

An Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid model has been implemented for the prediction of the gas volume fraction profile in turbulent upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical pipe. The two-fluid transport equations are discretized using the finite volume method and a low Reynolds number κ-ε turbulence model is used to predict the turbulence field for the liquid phase. The contribution to the effective turbulence by the gas phase is modeled by a bubble induced turbulent viscosity. For the fully-developed flow being considered, the gas volume fraction profile is calculated using the radial momentum balance for the bubble phase. The model potentially includes the effect of bubble size on the interphase forces and turbulence model. The results obtained are in good agreement with experimental data from the literature. The one-dimensional formulation being developed allows for the efficient assessment and further development of both turbulence and two-fluid models for multiphase flow applications in the nuclear industry. (author)

Prediction of gas volume fraction in fully-developed gas-liquid flow in a vertical pipe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Islam, A.S.M.A.; Adoo, N.A.; Bergstrom, D.J., E-mail: nana.adoo@usask.ca [University of Saskatchewan, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Saskatoon, SK (Canada); Wang, D.F. [Canadian Nuclear Laboratories, Chalk River, ON (Canada)

2015-07-01

An Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid model has been implemented for the prediction of the gas volume fraction profile in turbulent upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical pipe. The two-fluid transport equations are discretized using the finite volume method and a low Reynolds number κ-ε turbulence model is used to predict the turbulence field for the liquid phase. The contribution to the effective turbulence by the gas phase is modeled by a bubble induced turbulent viscosity. For the fully-developed flow being considered, the gas volume fraction profile is calculated using the radial momentum balance for the bubble phase. The model potentially includes the effect of bubble size on the interphase forces and turbulence model. The results obtained are in good agreement with experimental data from the literature. The one-dimensional formulation being developed allows for the efficient assessment and further development of both turbulence and two-fluid models for multiphase flow applications in the nuclear industry. (author)

Predicting Dyslexia in a Transparent Orthography from Grade 1 Literacy Skills: A Prospective Cohort Study

Science.gov (United States)

Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pinto, Giuliana; Accorti Gamannossi, Beatrice

2016-01-01

We conducted this prospective cohort study to explore the predictability of dyslexia from 1st-grade literacy skills in Italian students. We followed 407 Italian students in primary school from the 1st through the 3rd grades. Students were diagnosed with dyslexia in the 3rd grade. We retrospectively tested participants' 1st-grade performance in…

Understanding PSA and its derivatives in prediction of tumor volume: Addressing health disparities in prostate cancer risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Chinea, Felix M; Lyapichev, Kirill; Epstein, Jonathan I; Kwon, Deukwoo; Smith, Paul Taylor; Pollack, Alan; Cote, Richard J; Kryvenko, Oleksandr N

2017-03-28

To address health disparities in risk stratification of U.S. Hispanic/Latino men by characterizing influences of prostate weight, body mass index, and race/ethnicity on the correlation of PSA derivatives with Gleason score 6 (Grade Group 1) tumor volume in a diverse cohort. Using published PSA density and PSA mass density cutoff values, men with higher body mass indices and prostate weights were less likely to have a tumor volume PSA derivatives when predicting for tumor volume. In receiver operator characteristic analysis, area under the curve values for all PSA derivatives varied across race/ethnicity with lower optimal cutoff values for Hispanic/Latino (PSA=2.79, PSA density=0.06, PSA mass=0.37, PSA mass density=0.011) and Non-Hispanic Black (PSA=3.75, PSA density=0.07, PSA mass=0.46, PSA mass density=0.008) compared to Non-Hispanic White men (PSA=4.20, PSA density=0.11 PSA mass=0.53, PSA mass density=0.014). We retrospectively analyzed 589 patients with low-risk prostate cancer at radical prostatectomy. Pre-operative PSA, patient height, body weight, and prostate weight were used to calculate all PSA derivatives. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each PSA derivative per racial/ethnic group to establish optimal cutoff values predicting for tumor volume ≥0.5 cm3. Increasing prostate weight and body mass index negatively influence PSA derivatives for predicting tumor volume. PSA derivatives' ability to predict tumor volume varies significantly across race/ethnicity. Hispanic/Latino and Non-Hispanic Black men have lower optimal cutoff values for all PSA derivatives, which may impact risk assessment for prostate cancer.

Personality traits prospectively predict verbal fluency in a lifespan sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutin, Angelina R; Terracciano, Antonio; Kitner-Triolo, Melissa H; Uda, Manuela; Schlessinger, David; Zonderman, Alan B

2011-12-01

In a community-dwelling sample (N = 4,790; age range 14-94), we examined whether personality traits prospectively predicted performance on a verbal fluency task. Open, extraverted, and emotionally stable participants had better verbal fluency. At the facet level, dispositionally happy and self-disciplined participants retrieved more words; those prone to anxiety and depression and those who were deliberative retrieved fewer words. Education moderated the association between conscientiousness and fluency such that participants with lower education performed better on the fluency task if they were also conscientious. Age was not a moderator at the domain level, indicating that the personality-fluency associations were consistent across the life span. A disposition toward emotional vulnerability and being less open, less happy, and undisciplined may be detrimental to cognitive performance.

The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing: a prospective study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Oostrom, Iris; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J.; Bröcker-Vriends, Annette H. J. T.; van Asperen, Christi J.; Sijmons, Rolf H.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Gool, Arthur R.; Klijn, Jan G. M.; Tibben, Aad

2007-01-01

This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related

The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing: a prospective study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oostrom, I.I.H. van; Meijers-Heijboer, H.; Duivenvoorden, H.J.; Brocker-Vriends, A.H.; Asperen, C.J. van; Sijmons, R.H.; Seynaeve, C.; Gool, A.R. van; Klijn, J.G.M.; Tibben, A.

2007-01-01

This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related

The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing : a prospective study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Oostrom, Iris; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J.; Broecker-Vriends, Annette H. J. T.; van Asperen, Christi J.; Sijmons, Rolf H.; Seynaeve, Caroline; Van Gool, Arthur R.; Klijn, Jan G. M.; Tibben, Aad

2007-01-01

This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related

Sarcopenia predicts 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer: a prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Dong-Dong; Chen, Xiao-Xi; Chen, Xi-Yi; Wang, Su-Lin; Shen, Xian; Chen, Xiao-Lei; Yu, Zhen; Zhuang, Cheng-Le

2016-11-01

One-year mortality is vital for elderly oncologic patients undergoing surgery. Recent studies have demonstrated that sarcopenia can predict outcomes after major abdominal surgeries, but the association of sarcopenia and 1-year mortality has never been investigated in a prospective study. We conducted a prospective study of elderly patients (≥65 years) who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer from July 2014 to July 2015. Sarcopenia was determined by the measurements of muscle mass, handgrip strength, and gait speed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors associated with 1-year mortality. A total of 173 patients were included, in which 52 (30.1 %) patients were identified as having sarcopenia. Twenty-four (13.9 %) patients died within 1 year of surgery. Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia was an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an increased predictive power for 1-year mortality with the inclusion of sarcopenia, from 0.835 to 0.868. Solely low muscle mass was not predictive of 1-year mortality in the multivariate analysis. Sarcopenia is predictive of 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing gastric cancer surgery. The measurement of muscle function is important for sarcopenia as a preoperative assessment tool.

An improved distance-to-dose correlation for predicting bladder and rectum dose-volumes in knowledge-based VMAT planning for prostate cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Wall, Phillip D. H.; Carver, Robert L.; Fontenot, Jonas D.

2018-01-01

The overlap volume histogram (OVH) is an anatomical metric commonly used to quantify the geometric relationship between an organ at risk (OAR) and target volume when predicting expected dose-volumes in knowledge-based planning (KBP). This work investigated the influence of additional variables contributing to variations in the assumed linear DVH-OVH correlation for the bladder and rectum in VMAT plans of prostate patients, with the goal of increasing prediction accuracy and achievability of knowledge-based planning methods. VMAT plans were retrospectively generated for 124 prostate patients using multi-criteria optimization. DVHs quantified patient dosimetric data while OVHs quantified patient anatomical information. The DVH-OVH correlations were calculated for fractional bladder and rectum volumes of 30, 50, 65, and 80%. Correlations between potential influencing factors and dose were quantified using the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (R). Factors analyzed included the derivative of the OVH, prescribed dose, PTV volume, bladder volume, rectum volume, and in-field OAR volume. Out of the selected factors, only the in-field bladder volume (mean R  =  0.86) showed a strong correlation with bladder doses. Similarly, only the in-field rectal volume (mean R  =  0.76) showed a strong correlation with rectal doses. Therefore, an OVH formalism accounting for in-field OAR volumes was developed to determine the extent to which it improved the DVH-OVH correlation. Including the in-field factor improved the DVH-OVH correlation, with the mean R values over the fractional volumes studied improving from  -0.79 to  -0.85 and  -0.82 to  -0.86 for the bladder and rectum, respectively. A re-planning study was performed on 31 randomly selected database patients to verify the increased accuracy of KBP dose predictions by accounting for bladder and rectum volume within treatment fields. The in-field OVH led to significantly more precise

Preoperative prediction model of outcome after cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallstones

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borly, L; Anderson, I B; Bardram, L

1999-01-01

and sonography evaluated gallbladder motility, gallstones, and gallbladder volume. Preoperative variables in patients with or without postcholecystectomy pain were compared statistically, and significant variables were combined in a logistic regression model to predict the postoperative outcome. RESULTS: Eighty...... and by the absence of 'agonizing' pain and of symptoms coinciding with pain (P model 15 of 18 predicted patients had postoperative pain (PVpos = 0.83). Of 62 patients predicted as having no pain postoperatively, 56 were pain-free (PVneg = 0.90). Overall accuracy...... was 89%. CONCLUSION: From this prospective study a model based on preoperative symptoms was developed to predict postcholecystectomy pain. Since intrastudy reclassification may give too optimistic results, the model should be validated in future studies....

Body Dissatisfaction Prospectively Predicts Depressive Mood and Low Self-Esteem in Adolescent Girls and Boys

Science.gov (United States)

Paxton, Susan J.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J.; Eisenberg, Marla E.

2006-01-01

This research examined whether body dissatisfaction prospectively predicted depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys 5 years later. Participants were early-adolescent girls (n = 440, Time 1 M age = 12.7 years) and boys (n = 366, Time 1 M age = 12.8 years) and midadolescent girls (n = 946, Time 1 M age = 15.8 years) and boys…

Computing risk for oil prospects: principles and programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harbaugh, J.W.; Davis, J.C.; Wendebourg, J.

1995-01-01

This volume in the series Computer Methods in the Geosciences examines the challenge of risk assessment, field size distributions, and success, sequence and gambler's ruin. The estimation of the discovery size from the prospect size, outcome probabilities and success ratios, modeling prospects, and mapping properties and uncertainties are reviewed, and discriminating discoveries and dry holes, forecasting cash flow for a prospect, the worth of money, and use of risk analysis tables, decision tables and trees are considered. Appendices cover the installation of the RISK program and user manuals, and two disks are included with the volume. (UK)

Baseline Gray- and White Matter Volume Predict Successful Weight Loss in the Elderly

Science.gov (United States)

Mokhtari, Fatemeh; Paolini, Brielle M.; Burdette, Jonathan H.; Marsh, Anthony P.; Rejeski, W. Jack; Laurienti, Paul J.

2016-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study is to investigate if structural brain phenotypes can be used to predict weight loss success following behavioral interventions in older adults that are overweight or obese and have cardiometabolic dysfunction. Methods A support vector machine (SVM) with a repeated random subsampling validation approach was used to classify participants into the upper and lower halves of the weight loss distribution following 18 months of a weight loss intervention. Predictions were based on baseline brain gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) volume from 52 individuals that completed the intervention and a magnetic resonance imaging session. Results The SVM resulted in an average classification accuracy of 72.62 % based on GM and WM volume. A receiver operating characteristic analysis indicated that classification performance was robust based on an area under the curve of 0.82. Conclusions Our findings suggest that baseline brain structure is able to predict weight loss success following 18 months of treatment. The identification of brain structure as a predictor of successful weight loss is an innovative approach to identifying phenotypes for responsiveness to intensive lifestyle interventions. This phenotype could prove useful in future research focusing on the tailoring of treatment for weight loss. PMID:27804273

Development of equations for predicting Puerto Rican subtropical dry forest biomass and volume

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas J. Brandeis; Matthew Delaney; Bernard R. Parresol; Larry Royer

2006-01-01

Carbon accounting, forest health monitoring and sustainable management of the subtropical dry forests of Puerto Rico and other Caribbean Islands require an accurate assessment of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) and stem volume. One means of improving assessment accuracy is the development of predictive equations derived from locally collected data. Forest inventory...

Salinity independent volume fraction prediction in water-gas-oil multiphase flows using artificial neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salgado, C.M.; Pereira, Claudio M.N.A.; Brandao, Luis E.B., E-mail: otero@ien.gov.b, E-mail: cmnap@ien.gov.b, E-mail: brandao@ien.gov.b [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (DIRA/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Div. de Radiofarmacos

2011-07-01

This work investigates the response of a volume fraction prediction system for water-gas-oil multiphase flows considering variations on water salinity. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The detection system uses appropriate fan beam geometry, comprised of a dual-energy gamma-ray source and two NaI(Tl) detectors adequately positioned outside the pipe in order measure transmitted and scattered beams. An ideal and static theoretical model for annular flow regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the ANN. More than 500 simulations have been done, in which water salinity have been ranged from 0 to 16% in order to cover a most practical situations. Validation tests have included values of volume fractions and water salinity different from those used in ANN training phase. The results presented here show that the proposed approach may be successfully applied to material volume fraction prediction on watergas- oil multiphase flows considering practical (real) levels of variations in water salinity. (author)

Salinity independent volume fraction prediction in water-gas-oil multiphase flows using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salgado, C.M.; Pereira, Claudio M.N.A.; Brandao, Luis E.B.

2011-01-01

This work investigates the response of a volume fraction prediction system for water-gas-oil multiphase flows considering variations on water salinity. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The detection system uses appropriate fan beam geometry, comprised of a dual-energy gamma-ray source and two NaI(Tl) detectors adequately positioned outside the pipe in order measure transmitted and scattered beams. An ideal and static theoretical model for annular flow regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the ANN. More than 500 simulations have been done, in which water salinity have been ranged from 0 to 16% in order to cover a most practical situations. Validation tests have included values of volume fractions and water salinity different from those used in ANN training phase. The results presented here show that the proposed approach may be successfully applied to material volume fraction prediction on watergas- oil multiphase flows considering practical (real) levels of variations in water salinity. (author)

Effect of Thyroid Remnant Volume on the Risk of Hypothyroidism After Hemithyroidectomy: A Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, Brian Hung-Hin; Wong, Carlos K H; Wong, Kai Pun; Chu, Kelvin Ka-Wan; Shek, Tony W H

2017-06-01

Hypothyroidism is a common sequel after a hemithyroidectomy. Although various risk factors leading to hypothyroidism have been reported, the effect of the contralateral lobe's volume has been understudied. This study aimed to examine the association between the preoperative contralateral lobe's volume and the risk of postoperative hypothyroidism. During a 2-year period, 150 eligible patients undergoing a hemithyroidectomy were evaluated. The volume of the contralateral nonexcised lobe was estimated preoperatively by independent assessors on ultrasonography using the following formula: width (in cm) × depth (in cm) × length (in cm) × (π/6), adjusted for the body surface area (BSA). Postoperative hypothyroidism was defined as serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) exceeding 4.78 mIU/L. Any significant characteristics in the univariate analysis were entered into the multivariate analysis to determine independent factors. After a mean follow-up period of 53.5 ± 9.4 months, 44 patients (29.3 %) experienced postoperative hypothyroidism, and 10 of these patients required thyroxine replacement. Hypothyroidism was associated with a higher preoperative TSH level (p hypothyroidism. Patients with a BSA-adjusted volume smaller than 3.2 ml had a threefold greater hypothyroidism risk than those with a BSA-adjusted volume of 3.2 ml or more (p hypothyroidism risk was observed after hemithyroidectomy. Together with a higher preoperative TSH level and fewer ipsilateral nodules, a smaller BSA-adjusted volume measured by preoperative ultrasonography independently predicted hypothyroidism.

Hippocampal volume and CDR-SB can predict conversion to dementia in MCI patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

João Guilherme Fiorani Borgio

2012-11-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the combination of two factors: clinical dementia rating sum of boxes scores (CDR-SB and hippocampal volume (HV as predictors of conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI to dementia. METHODS: Twenty-eight individuals (9 normal and 19 with MCI were classified according to their CDR sum of boxes scores into 3 groups. RESULTS: The hippocampal volume was significantly lower in the high-risk group and in those who developed dementia after two years. The rate of conversion was crescent among the three groups. CONCLUSION: We were proposed an additional measurement of the hippocampal volume which may be helpful in the prognosis. However, we noted that the CDR-SB is a method as efficient as neuroimaging to predict dementia with the advantage of being a procedure for low cost and easy implementation, more consistent with public policy.

Regional Differences in Brain Volume Predict the Acquisition of Skill in a Complex Real-Time Strategy Videogame

Science.gov (United States)

Basak, Chandramallika; Voss, Michelle W.; Erickson, Kirk I.; Boot, Walter R.; Kramer, Arthur F.

2011-01-01

Previous studies have found that differences in brain volume among older adults predict performance in laboratory tasks of executive control, memory, and motor learning. In the present study we asked whether regional differences in brain volume as assessed by the application of a voxel-based morphometry technique on high resolution MRI would also…

Predicting early onset of intoxication versus drinking—A population-based prospective study of Norwegian adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frøydis Enstad

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Aims: Recent research suggests that early onset of intoxication (EOI may be of greater importance for a wide range of subsequent adverse outcomes than early drinking experiences without intoxication. However, research on antecedents of EOI is scarce. The present study identifies predictors of EOI and whether they differ from those of early onset of drinking (EOD. Methods: Data was drawn from the prospective Tracking Opportunities and Problems (TOPP study of Norwegian families (n=382, which followed up mothers and their children with six data collections from childhood (age 1.5 to adolescence (age 14.5. Self-reports from the adolescents (parenting practices, adolescent's conduct problems and friends' deviant behaviour and their mothers (adolescent temperament, socio-economic factors and household alcohol problems were used to identify predictors of EOI and EOD. Findings: A variety of temperamental, socio-economic, and family factors predicted EOI, whereas EOD was predicted of substantially fewer variables. Particularly, when controlling for relevant covariates, low levels of shyness, own conduct problems and having friends with deviant behaviour prospectively predicted EOI, but not EOD. Conclusions: Future research and prevention efforts should take into consideration that EOI and EOD without getting drunk appear to be predicted by different risk factors in childhood and adolescence. Keywords: Adolescents, Alcohol, Intoxication, Drinking, Onset, Predictors

Testicular hypertrophy as a predictor for contralateral monorchism: Retrospective review of prospectively recorded data.

Science.gov (United States)

Hodhod, A; Capolicchio, J P; Jednak, R; El-Sherbiny, M

2016-02-01

Testicular hypertrophy has previously been evaluated as a predictor of monorchism. However, its implication in clinical practice is not well evaluated. The aim of the present study was to examine its value in planning the operative time. Medical charts of prospectively recorded data of 76 consecutive patients with unilateral impalpable testis from 2011 to 2014 were reviewed at the present institute. Inclusion criteria included prepubertal patients with non-palpable testes by examination under anesthesia. Contralateral testes were prospectively measured using a Takihara orchidometer. Orchiectomy or orchiopexy was performed according to the viability of the undescended testis (UDT). Collected data included age of surgery, contralateral testicular size, surgical time and laparoscopic findings. A ROC curve was used to define the best cut-off volume of the contralateral testis that can predict ipsilateral testicular viability. The Student's t-test was used to examine if this cut-off volume would be useful in allocating the operative time. Of 76 patients, four palpable testes by examination under anesthesia were excluded. The remaining 72 patients were included in the study. Ipsilateral normal viable testes were found in 26 (36.1%) patients, while 46 (63.9%) had non-viable testes (testicular nubbins or vanishing testes) (Figure). A contralateral testicular volume > 2 ml was significantly predictive for monorchism with 71.7% sensitivity and 100% specificity (P 2 ml was 50 min, which was significantly shorter than that for UDT with a contralateral size ≤ 2 ml, which was 88 min (P value for testicular hypertrophy that predicts monorchism greatly varied. This is likely due to the different methods used for testicular measurements that make it impractical to make a direct comparison. The usefulness of predicting monorchism before surgery has not previously been used as a guide for allocating operative time in the management of a unilateral non-palpable testicle. This study

Predictive accuracy of Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale assessment during pregnancy for the risk of developing postpartum depressive symptoms : a prospective cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meijer, J. L.; Beijers, C.; van Pampus, M. G.; Verbeek, T.; Stolk, R. P.; Milgrom, J.; Bockting, C. L. H.; Burger, H.

2014-01-01

ObjectiveTo investigate whether the 10-item Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) administered antenatally is accurate in predicting postpartum depressive symptoms, and whether a two-item EPDS has similar predictive accuracy. DesignProspective cohort study. SettingObstetric care in the

Individual differences in episodic memory abilities predict successful prospective memory output monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter Ball, B; Pitães, Margarida; Brewer, Gene A

2018-02-07

Output monitoring refers to memory for one's previously completed actions. In the context of prospective memory (PM) (e.g., remembering to take medication), failures of output monitoring can result in repetitions and omissions of planned actions (e.g., over- or under-medication). To be successful in output monitoring paradigms, participants must flexibly control attention to detect PM cues as well as engage controlled retrieval of previous actions whenever a particular cue is encountered. The current study examined individual differences in output monitoring abilities in a group of younger adults differing in attention control (AC) and episodic memory (EM) abilities. The results showed that AC ability uniquely predicted successful cue detection on the first presentation, whereas EM ability uniquely predicted successful output monitoring on the second presentation. The current study highlights the importance of examining external correlates of PM abilities and contributes to the growing body of research on individual differences in PM.

A Prospective Cohort Study on Radiation-induced Hypothyroidism: Development of an NTCP Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boomsma, Marjolein J.; Bijl, Hendrik P.; Christianen, Miranda E.M.C.; Beetz, Ivo; Chouvalova, Olga; Steenbakkers, Roel J.H.M.; Laan, Bernard F.A.M. van der; Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H.R.; Oosting, Sjoukje F.; Schilstra, Cornelis; Langendijk, Johannes A.

2012-01-01

Purpose: To establish a multivariate normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. Methods and Materials: The thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) level of 105 patients treated with (chemo-) radiation therapy for head-and-neck cancer was prospectively measured during a median follow-up of 2.5 years. Hypothyroidism was defined as elevated serum TSH with decreased or normal free thyroxin (T4). A multivariate logistic regression model with bootstrapping was used to determine the most important prognostic variables for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. Results: Thirty-five patients (33%) developed primary hypothyroidism within 2 years after radiation therapy. An NTCP model based on 2 variables, including the mean thyroid gland dose and the thyroid gland volume, was most predictive for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. NTCP values increased with higher mean thyroid gland dose (odds ratio [OR]: 1.064/Gy) and decreased with higher thyroid gland volume (OR: 0.826/cm 3 ). Model performance was good with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85. Conclusions: This is the first prospective study resulting in an NTCP model for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. The probability of hypothyroidism rises with increasing dose to the thyroid gland, whereas it reduces with increasing thyroid gland volume.

A Prospective Cohort Study on Radiation-induced Hypothyroidism: Development of an NTCP Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boomsma, Marjolein J.; Bijl, Hendrik P.; Christianen, Miranda E.M.C.; Beetz, Ivo; Chouvalova, Olga; Steenbakkers, Roel J.H.M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Laan, Bernard F.A.M. van der [Department of Otorhinolaryngology/Head and Neck Surgery, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H.R. [Department of Endocrinology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Oosting, Sjoukje F. [Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Langendijk, Johannes A., E-mail: j.a.langendijk@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

2012-11-01

Purpose: To establish a multivariate normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. Methods and Materials: The thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) level of 105 patients treated with (chemo-) radiation therapy for head-and-neck cancer was prospectively measured during a median follow-up of 2.5 years. Hypothyroidism was defined as elevated serum TSH with decreased or normal free thyroxin (T4). A multivariate logistic regression model with bootstrapping was used to determine the most important prognostic variables for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. Results: Thirty-five patients (33%) developed primary hypothyroidism within 2 years after radiation therapy. An NTCP model based on 2 variables, including the mean thyroid gland dose and the thyroid gland volume, was most predictive for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. NTCP values increased with higher mean thyroid gland dose (odds ratio [OR]: 1.064/Gy) and decreased with higher thyroid gland volume (OR: 0.826/cm{sup 3}). Model performance was good with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85. Conclusions: This is the first prospective study resulting in an NTCP model for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. The probability of hypothyroidism rises with increasing dose to the thyroid gland, whereas it reduces with increasing thyroid gland volume.

Factors predictive for incidence and remission of internet addiction in young adolescents: a prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, Chih-Hung; Yen, Ju-Yu; Yen, Cheng-Fang; Lin, Huang-Chi; Yang, Ming-Jen

2007-08-01

The aim of the study is to determine the incidence and remission rates for Internet addiction and the associated predictive factors in young adolescents over a 1-year follow-up. This was a prospective, population-based investigation. Five hundred seventeen students (267 male and 250 female) were recruited from three junior high schools in southern Taiwan. The factors examined included gender, personality, mental health, self-esteem, family function, life satisfaction, and Internet activities. The result revealed that the 1-year incidence and remission rates for Internet addiction were 7.5% and 49.5% respectively. High exploratory excitability, low reward dependence, low self-esteem, low family function, and online game playing predicted the emergency of the Internet addiction. Further, low hostility and low interpersonal sensitivity predicted remission of Internet addiction. The factors predictive incidence and remission of Internet addiction identified in this study could be provided for prevention and promoting remission of Internet addiction in adolescents.

Ventromedial prefrontal volume predicts understanding of others and social network size.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Penelope A; Rezaie, Roozbeh; Brown, Rachel; Roberts, Neil; Dunbar, R I M

2011-08-15

Cognitive abilities such as Theory of Mind (ToM), and more generally mentalizing competences, are central to human sociality. Neuroimaging has associated these abilities with specific brain regions including temporo-parietal junction, superior temporal sulcus, frontal pole, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Previous studies have shown both that mentalizing competence, indexed as the ability to correctly understand others' belief states, is associated with social network size and that social group size is correlated with frontal lobe volume across primate species (the social brain hypothesis). Given this, we predicted that both mentalizing competences and the number of social relationships a person can maintain simultaneously will be a function of gray matter volume in these regions associated with conventional Theory of Mind. We used voxel-based morphometry of Magnetic Resonance Images (MRIs) to test this hypothesis in humans. Specifically, we regressed individuals' mentalizing competences and social network sizes against gray matter volume. This revealed that gray matter volume in bilateral posterior frontal pole and left temporoparietal junction and superior temporal sucus varies parametrically with mentalizing competence. Furthermore, gray matter volume in the medial orbitofrontal cortex and the ventral portion of medial frontal gyrus, varied parametrically with both mentalizing competence and social network size, demonstrating a shared neural basis for these very different facets of sociality. These findings provide the first fine-grained anatomical support for the social brain hypothesis. As such, they have important implications for our understanding of the constraints limiting social cognition and social network size in humans, as well as for our understanding of how such abilities evolved across primates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved prediction of octanol-water partition coefficients from liquid-solute water solubilities and molar volumes

Science.gov (United States)

Chiou, C.T.; Schmedding, D.W.; Manes, M.

2005-01-01

A volume-fraction-based solvent-water partition model for dilute solutes, in which the partition coefficient shows a dependence on solute molar volume (V??), is adapted to predict the octanol-water partition coefficient (K ow) from the liquid or supercooled-liquid solute water solubility (Sw), or vice versa. The established correlation is tested for a wide range of industrial compounds and pesticides (e.g., halogenated aliphatic hydrocarbons, alkylbenzenes, halogenated benzenes, ethers, esters, PAHs, PCBs, organochlorines, organophosphates, carbamates, and amidesureas-triazines), which comprise a total of 215 test compounds spanning about 10 orders of magnitude in Sw and 8.5 orders of magnitude in Kow. Except for phenols and alcohols, which require special considerations of the Kow data, the correlation predicts the Kow within 0.1 log units for most compounds, much independent of the compound type or the magnitude in K ow. With reliable Sw and V data for compounds of interest, the correlation provides an effective means for either predicting the unavailable log Kow values or verifying the reliability of the reported log Kow data. ?? 2005 American Chemical Society.

Value of quantitative MRI parameters in predicting and evaluating clinical outcome in conservatively treated patients with chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy: A prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsehaie, J; Poot, D H J; Oei, E H G; Verhaar, J A N; de Vos, R J

2017-07-01

To evaluate whether baseline MRI parameters provide prognostic value for clinical outcome, and to study correlation between MRI parameters and clinical outcome. Observational prospective cohort study. Patients with chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy were included and performed a 16-week eccentric calf-muscle exercise program. Outcome measurements were the validated Victorian Institute of Sports Assessment-Achilles (VISA-A) questionnaire and MRI parameters at baseline and after 24 weeks. The following MRI parameters were assessed: tendon volume (Volume), tendon maximum cross-sectional area (CSA), tendon maximum anterior-posterior diameter (AP), and signal intensity (SI). Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) and minimum detectable changes (MDCs) for each parameter were established in a reliability analysis. Twenty-five patients were included and complete follow-up was achieved in 20 patients. The average VISA-A scores increased significantly with 12.3 points (27.6%). The reliability was fair-good for all MRI-parameters with ICCs>0.50. Average tendon volume and CSA decreased significantly with 0.28cm 3 (5.2%) and 4.52mm 2 (4.6%) respectively. Other MRI parameters did not change significantly. None of the baseline MRI parameters were univariately associated with VISA-A change after 24 weeks. MRI SI increase over 24 weeks was positively correlated with the VISA-A score improvement (B=0.7, R 2 =0.490, p=0.02). Tendon volume and CSA decreased significantly after 24 weeks of conservative treatment. As these differences were within the MDC limits, they could be a result of a measurement error. Furthermore, MRI parameters at baseline did not predict the change in symptoms, and therefore have no added value in providing a prognosis in daily clinical practice. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting medical complications after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

2014-02-01

The possibility and likelihood of a postoperative medical complication after spine surgery undoubtedly play a major role in the decision making of the surgeon and patient alike. Although prior study has determined relative risk and odds ratio values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of medical complication, rather than relative risk or odds ratio values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of medical complication during and after spine surgery. Statistical analysis using a prospective surgical spine registry that recorded extensive demographic, surgical, and complication data. Outcomes examined are medical complications that were specifically defined a priori. This analysis is a continuation of statistical analysis of our previously published report. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,476 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication detail recorded for 2 years after surgery, we previously identified several risk factor for medical complications. Using the beta coefficients from those log binomial regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of medical complication after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created two predictive models: one predicting the occurrence of any medical complication and the other predicting the occurrence of a major medical complication. The final predictive model for any medical complications had a receiver operator curve characteristic of 0.76, considered to be a fair measure. The final predictive model for any major medical complications had

Prediction of methotrexate intolerance in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a prospective, observational cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

van Dijkhuizen, Evert Hendrik Pieter; Bulatović Ćalasan, Maja; Pluijm, Saskia M F; de Rotte, Maurits C F J; Vastert, Sebastiaan J; Kamphuis, Sylvia; de Jonge, Robert; Wulffraat, Nico M

2015-01-01

Methotrexate (MTX) is an effective and safe drug in the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Despite its safety, MTX-related gastrointestinal adverse effects before and after MTX administration, termed MTX intolerance, occur frequently, leading to non-compliance and potentially premature MTX termination. The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to predict MTX intolerance. In a prospective JIA cohort, clinical variables and single nucleotide polymorphisms were determined at MTX start. The Methotrexate Intolerance Severity Score was employed to measure MTX intolerance in the first year of treatment. MTX intolerance was most prevalent at 6 or 12 months after MTX start, which was defined as the outcome for the prediction model. The model was developed in 152 patients using multivariable logistic regression analysis and subsequently internally validated using bootstrapping. The prediction model included the following predictors: JIA category, antinuclear antibody, parent/patient assessment of pain, Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score-27, thrombocytes, alanine aminotransferase and creatinine. The model classified 77.5% of patients correctly, and 66.7% of patients after internal validation by bootstrapping. The lowest predicted risk of MTX intolerance was 18.9% and the highest predicted risk was 85.9%. The prediction model was transformed into a risk score (range 0-17). At a cut-off of ≥6, sensitivity was 82.0%, specificity 56.1%, positive predictive value was 58.7% and negative predictive value 80.4%. This clinical prediction model showed moderate predictive power to detect MTX intolerance. To develop into a clinically usable tool, it should be validated in an independent cohort and updated with new predictors. Such an easy-to-use tool could then assist clinicians in identifying patients at risk to develop MTX intolerance, and in turn to monitor them closely and intervene timely in order to prevent the development of MTX intolerance

Coronary Artery Calcium Volume and Density: Potential Interactions and Overall Predictive Value: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Criqui, Michael H; Knox, Jessica B; Denenberg, Julie O; Forbang, Nketi I; McClelland, Robyn L; Novotny, Thomas E; Sandfort, Veit; Waalen, Jill; Blaha, Michael J; Allison, Matthew A

2017-08-01

This study sought to determine the possibility of interactions between coronary artery calcium (CAC) volume or CAC density with each other, and with age, sex, ethnicity, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score, diabetes status, and renal function by estimated glomerular filtration rate, and, using differing CAC scores, to determine the improvement over the ASCVD risk score in risk prediction and reclassification. In MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), CAC volume was positively and CAC density inversely associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. A total of 3,398 MESA participants free of clinical CVD but with prevalent CAC at baseline were followed for incident CVD events. During a median 11.0 years of follow-up, there were 390 CVD events, 264 of which were coronary heart disease (CHD). With each SD increase of ln CAC volume (1.62), risk of CHD increased 73% (p present). In multivariable Cox models, significant interactions were present for CAC volume with age and ASCVD risk score for both CHD and CVD, and CAC density with ASCVD risk score for CVD. Hazard ratios were generally stronger in the lower risk groups. Receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve and Net Reclassification Index analyses showed better prediction by CAC volume than by Agatston, and the addition of CAC density to CAC volume further significantly improved prediction. The inverse association between CAC density and incident CHD and CVD events is robust across strata of other CVD risk factors. Added to the ASCVD risk score, CAC volume and density provided the strongest prediction for CHD and CVD events, and the highest correct reclassification. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Prediction of the efficiency of endoscopic lung volume reduction by valves in severe emphysema].

Science.gov (United States)

Bocquillon, V; Briault, A; Reymond, E; Arbib, F; Jankowski, A; Ferretti, G; Pison, C

2016-11-01

In severe emphysema, endoscopic lung volume reduction with valves is an alternative to surgery with less morbidity and mortality. In 2015, selection of patients who will respond to this technique is based on emphysema heterogeneity, a complete fissure visible on the CT-scan and absence of collateral ventilation between lobes. Our case report highlights that individualized prediction is possible. A 58-year-old woman had severe, disabling pulmonary emphysema. A high resolution thoracic computed tomography scan showed that the emphysema was heterogeneous, predominantly in the upper lobes, integrity of the left greater fissure and no collateral ventilation with the left lower lobe. A valve was inserted in the left upper lobe bronchus. At one year, clinical and functional benefits were significant with complete atelectasis of the treated lobe. The success of endoscopic lung volume reduction with a valve can be predicted, an example of personalized medicine. Copyright © 2016 SPLF. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Prediction of infarct volume in patients undergoing reperfusion therapy by Tc-99m antimyosin SPECT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yasuda, T.; Leinbach, R.C.; Khaw, B.A.; Gold, H.K.; Strauss, H.W.

1984-01-01

The predictability of infarct volume by Tc-99m antimyosin SPECT was evaluated within 24 hours of chest pain and this was compared to the length of akinesis (AK) from the pre-discharge left ventriculogram (LVgram). Ten patients (pts) with acute myocardial infarction who underwent streptokinase thrombolytic therapy (success 8, failure 2) were subjects of this investigation. None had previous infarction. Average reperfusion time was within 4.5 hours and 20mCi of Tc-99m antimyosin was given intravenously within 8 hours after chest pain; SPECT imaging was performed within 18 hours after injection. Infarct volume was calculated from SPECT and expressed as grams of myocardial infarction (GMI). Ten days later, a 30 0 RAO contrast LVgram was recorded and the length of AK (corrected for magnification) was measured along the LV border at the end-diastolic phase and expressed as cm of AK. GMI and AK were measured independently without knowledge of each other. Results are given. The data demonstrate a good correlation of GMI and AK. Infarct volume can be measured by antimyosin SPECT within 24 hours of chest pain and predict residual LV dysfunction in pts undergoing reperfusion therapy

Birth weight and neonatal adiposity prediction using fractional limb volume obtained with 3D ultrasound.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Clare; O'Higgins, Amy; Doolan, Anne; Segurado, Ricardo; Stuart, Bernard; Turner, Michael J; Kennelly, Máireád M

2014-01-01

The objective of this investigation was to study fetal thigh volume throughout gestation and explore its correlation with birth weight and neonatal body composition. This novel technique may improve birth weight prediction and lead to improved detection rates for fetal growth restriction. Fractional thigh volume (TVol) using 3D ultrasound, fetal biometry and soft tissue thickness were studied longitudinally in 42 mother-infant pairs. The percentages of neonatal body fat, fat mass and fat-free mass were determined using air displacement plethysmography. Correlation and linear regression analyses were performed. Linear regression analysis showed an association between TVol and birth weight. TVol at 33 weeks was also associated with neonatal fat-free mass. There was no correlation between TVol and neonatal fat mass. Abdominal circumference, estimated fetal weight (EFW) and EFW centile showed consistent correlations with birth weight. Thigh volume demonstrated an additional independent contribution to birth weight prediction when added to the EFW centile from the 38-week scan (p = 0.03). Fractional TVol performed at 33 weeks gestation is correlated with birth weight and neonatal lean body mass. This screening test may highlight those at risk of fetal growth restriction or macrosomia.

Prostate-Specific Antigen Mass and Free Prostate-Specific Antigen Mass for Predicting the Prostate Volume of Korean Men With Biopsy-Proven Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia

OpenAIRE

Park, Tae Yong; Chae, Ji Yun; Kim, Jong Wook; Kim, Jin Wook; Oh, Mi Mi; Yoon, Cheol Yong; Moon, Du Geon

2013-01-01

Purpose It has been reported that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) correlates with prostate volume. Recently, some studies have reported that PSA mass (PSA adjusted for plasma volume) is more accurate than PSA at predicting prostate volume. In this study, we analyzed the accuracy of PSA and the related parameters of PSA mass, free PSA (fPSA), and fPSA mass in predicting prostate volume. Materials and Methods We retrospectively investigated 658 patients who underwent prostate biopsy from 2006 t...

PREDICTION OF THE MIXING ENTHALPIES OF BINARY LIQUID ALLOYS BY MOLECULAR INTERACTION VOLUME MODEL

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

H.W.Yang; D.P.Tao; Z.H.Zhou

2008-01-01

The mixing enthalpies of 23 binary liquid alloys are calculated by molecular interaction volume model (MIVM), which is a two-parameter model with the partial molar infinite dilute mixing enthalpies. The predicted values are in agreement with the experimental data and then indicate that the model is reliable and convenient.

Predicting emergency department volume using forecasting methods to create a "surge response" for noncrisis events.

Science.gov (United States)

Chase, Valerie J; Cohn, Amy E M; Peterson, Timothy A; Lavieri, Mariel S

2012-05-01

This study investigated whether emergency department (ED) variables could be used in mathematical models to predict a future surge in ED volume based on recent levels of use of physician capacity. The models may be used to guide decisions related to on-call staffing in non-crisis-related surges of patient volume. A retrospective analysis was conducted using information spanning July 2009 through June 2010 from a large urban teaching hospital with a Level I trauma center. A comparison of significance was used to assess the impact of multiple patient-specific variables on the state of the ED. Physician capacity was modeled based on historical physician treatment capacity and productivity. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to determine the probability that the available physician capacity would be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive in the next time period. The prediction horizons used were 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, 4 hours, 8 hours, and 12 hours. Five consecutive months of patient data from July 2010 through November 2010, similar to the data used to generate the models, was used to validate the models. Positive predictive values, Type I and Type II errors, and real-time accuracy in predicting noncrisis surge events were used to evaluate the forecast accuracy of the models. The ratio of new patients requiring treatment over total physician capacity (termed the care utilization ratio [CUR]) was deemed a robust predictor of the state of the ED (with a CUR greater than 1 indicating that the physician capacity would not be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive). Prediction intervals of 30 minutes, 8 hours, and 12 hours performed best of all models analyzed, with deviances of 1.000, 0.951, and 0.864, respectively. A 95% significance was used to validate the models against the July 2010 through November 2010 data set. Positive predictive values ranged from 0.738 to 0.872, true positives ranged from 74% to 94%, and

"Pulmonary valve replacement diminishes the presence of restrictive physiology and reduces atrial volumes": a prospective study in Tetralogy of Fallot patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Pijuan-Domenech, Antonia; Pineda, Victor; Castro, Miguel Angel; Sureda-Barbosa, Carlos; Ribera, Aida; Cruz, Luz M; Ferreira-Gonzalez, Ignacio; Dos-Subirà, Laura; Subirana-Domènech, Teresa; Garcia-Dorado, David; Casaldàliga-Ferrer, Jaume

2014-11-15

Pulmonary valve replacement (PVR) reduces right ventricular (RV) volumes in the setting of long-term pulmonary regurgitation after Tetralogy of Fallot (ToF) repair; however, little is known of its effect on RV diastolic function. Right atrial volumes may reflect the burden of RV diastolic dysfunction. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the clinical, echocardiographic, biochemical and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) variables, focusing particularly on right atrial response and right ventricular diastolic function prior to and after elective PVR in adult patients with ToF. This prospective study was conducted from January 2009 to April 2013 in consecutive patients > 18 years of age who had undergone ToF repair in childhood and were accepted for elective PVR. Twenty patients (mean age: 35 years; 70% men) agreed to enter the study. PVR was performed with a bioporcine prosthesis. Concomitant RV reduction was performed in all cases when technically possible. Pulmonary end-diastolic forward flow (EDFF) decreased significantly from 5.4 ml/m(2) to 0.3 ml/m(2) (p volumes by 25% (p = 0.0024): mean indexed diastolic/systolic atrial volumes prior to surgery were 43 ml/m(2) (SD+/-4.6)/63 ml/m(2) (SD+/-5.5), and dropped to 33 ml/m(2) (SD+/-3)/46 ml/m(2) (SD+/-2.55) post-surgery. All patients presented right ventricular diastolic and systolic volume reductions, with a mean volume reduction of 35% (p volumes in keeping with the known reduction in RV volumes, after PVR. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bioinformatics Methods for Learning Radiation-Induced Lung Inflammation from Heterogeneous Retrospective and Prospective Data

Science.gov (United States)

Spencer, Sarah J.; Almiron Bonnin, Damian; Deasy, Joseph O.; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam

2009-01-01

Radiotherapy outcomes are determined by complex interactions between physical and biological factors, reflecting both treatment conditions and underlying genetics. Recent advances in radiotherapy and biotechnology provide new opportunities and challenges for predicting radiation-induced toxicities, particularly radiation pneumonitis (RP), in lung cancer patients. In this work, we utilize datamining methods based on machine learning to build a predictive model of lung injury by retrospective analysis of treatment planning archives. In addition, biomarkers for this model are extracted from a prospective clinical trial that collects blood serum samples at multiple time points. We utilize a 3-way proteomics methodology to screen for differentially expressed proteins that are related to RP. Our preliminary results demonstrate that kernel methods can capture nonlinear dose-volume interactions, but fail to address missing biological factors. Our proteomics strategy yielded promising protein candidates, but their role in RP as well as their interactions with dose-volume metrics remain to be determined. PMID:19704920

Radical prostatectomy and positive surgical margins: tumor volume and Gleason score predicts cancer outcome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

La Roca, Ricardo L.R. Felts de; Fonseca, Francisco Paula da; Cunha, Isabela Werneck da; Bezerra, Stephania Martins

2013-01-01

Introduction: positive surgical margins (PSMs) are common adverse factors to predict the outcome of a patient submitted to radical prostatectomy (PR). However, not all of these men will follow with biochemical (BCR) or clinical (CR) recurrence. Relationship between PSMs with these recurrent events has to be correlated with other clinicopathological findings in order to recognize more aggressive tumors in order to recommend complementary treatment to these selected patients. Materials and methods: we retrospectively reviewed the outcome of 228 patients submitted to open retropubic RP between March 1991 and June 2008, where 161 had and 67 did not have PSMs. Minimum follow-up time was considered 2 years after surgery. BCR was considered when PSA ≥ 0.2 ng/ml. CR was determined when clinical evidence of tumor appeared. Chi-square test was used to correlate clinical and pathologic variables with PSMs. The estimated 5-year risk of BCR and CR in presence of PSMs was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared to log-rank tests. Results: from the total of 228 patients, 161 (71%) had PSMs, while 67 (29%) had negative surgical margins (NSMs). Prostatic circumferential margin was the most common (43.4%) site. Univariate analysis showed statistically significant (p < 0.001) associations between the presence of PSMs and BCR, but not with CR (p = 0.06). Among 161 patients with PSMs, 61 (37.8%) presented BCR, while 100 (62.8%) did not. Predicting progression-free survival for 5 years, BCR was correlated with pathological stage; Gleason score; pre-treatment PSA; tumor volume in specimen; capsular and perineural invasion; presence and number of PSMs. RC correlated only with angiolymphatic invasion and Gleason score. Considering univariate analyses the clinicopathological factors predicting BCR for 5 years, results statistically significant links with prostate weight; pre-treatment PSA; Gleason score; pathological stage; tumor volume; PSMs; capsular and perineural

Radical prostatectomy and positive surgical margins: tumor volume and Gleason score predicts cancer outcome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

La Roca, Ricardo L.R. Felts de, E-mail: Ricardo@delarocaurologia.com.br [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Fonseca, Francisco Paula da, E-mail: fpf@uol.com.br [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Divisao de Urologia. Dept. de Cirurgia Pelvica; Cunha, Isabela Werneck da; Bezerra, Stephania Martins, E-mail: iwerneck@gmail.com, E-mail: stephaniab@gmail.com [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Patologia

2013-07-01

Introduction: positive surgical margins (PSMs) are common adverse factors to predict the outcome of a patient submitted to radical prostatectomy (PR). However, not all of these men will follow with biochemical (BCR) or clinical (CR) recurrence. Relationship between PSMs with these recurrent events has to be correlated with other clinicopathological findings in order to recognize more aggressive tumors in order to recommend complementary treatment to these selected patients. Materials and methods: we retrospectively reviewed the outcome of 228 patients submitted to open retropubic RP between March 1991 and June 2008, where 161 had and 67 did not have PSMs. Minimum follow-up time was considered 2 years after surgery. BCR was considered when PSA {>=} 0.2 ng/ml. CR was determined when clinical evidence of tumor appeared. Chi-square test was used to correlate clinical and pathologic variables with PSMs. The estimated 5-year risk of BCR and CR in presence of PSMs was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared to log-rank tests. Results: from the total of 228 patients, 161 (71%) had PSMs, while 67 (29%) had negative surgical margins (NSMs). Prostatic circumferential margin was the most common (43.4%) site. Univariate analysis showed statistically significant (p < 0.001) associations between the presence of PSMs and BCR, but not with CR (p = 0.06). Among 161 patients with PSMs, 61 (37.8%) presented BCR, while 100 (62.8%) did not. Predicting progression-free survival for 5 years, BCR was correlated with pathological stage; Gleason score; pre-treatment PSA; tumor volume in specimen; capsular and perineural invasion; presence and number of PSMs. RC correlated only with angiolymphatic invasion and Gleason score. Considering univariate analyses the clinicopathological factors predicting BCR for 5 years, results statistically significant links with prostate weight; pre-treatment PSA; Gleason score; pathological stage; tumor volume; PSMs; capsular and perineural

European Registry of Carotid Artery Stenting: results from a prospective registry of eight high volume EUROPEAN institutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Stabile, Eugenio; Garg, Pallav; Cremonesi, Alberto; Bosiers, Marc; Reimers, Bernhard; Setacci, Carlo; Cao, Piergiorgio; Schmidt, Andrej; Sievert, Horst; Peeters, Patrick; Nikas, Dimitry; Werner, Martin; de Donato, Gianmarco; Parlani, Giambattista; Castriota, Fausto; Hornung, Marius; Mauri, Laura; Rubino, Paolo

2012-08-01

Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is the standard revascularization therapy to prevent stroke in patients with carotid artery disease. Carotid artery stenting (CAS) could be considered a potential alternative in patients at high surgical risk. Recent clinical trials have challenged this concept due a relatively high incidence of post-CAS adverse events, which occurred in low volume centers. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes associated with neuroprotected CAS in selected high volume centers. From January 2007 to December 2007, 1,611 patients underwent neuroprotected CAS in eight European Centers. For each patients, clinical, procedural, and one month follow-up data from all patients have been collected. An independent clinical events committee adjudicated the events. Overall in hospital death was 0.06% (one patient), whereas in-hospital stroke was 0.49% (eight patients). Between hospital discharge and 30 days three additional patients died (0.18%) and 10 patients experienced a stroke (0.67%). Overall 30 days mortality was 0.24% (four patients) and stroke incidence 1.12% (18 patients). The 30 day stroke/death rate was 1.36%. CAS is a reasonable alternative to CEA to treat carotid artery atherosclerosis in well-experienced high volume centers. These data suggest that future prospective trials comparing CAS and CEA outcomes should include only centers highly experienced in both treatment modalities. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multiphasic perfusion CT in acute middle cerebral artery ischemic stroke: prediction of final infarct volume and correlation with clinical outcome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yi, Chin A; Na, Dong Gyu; Ryoo, Jae Wook; Moon, Chan Hong; Byun, Hong Sik; Roh, Hong Gee; Moon, Won Jin; Lee, Kwang Ho; Lee, Soo Joo

2002-01-01

To assess the utility of multiphasic perfusion CT in the prediction of final infarct volume, and the relationship between lesion volume revealed by CT imaging and clinical outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients who have not undergone thrombolytic therapy. Thirty-five patients underwent multiphasic perfusion CT within six hours of stroke onset. After baseline unenhanced helical CT scanning, contrast-enhanced CT scans were obtained 20, 34, 48, and 62 secs after the injection of 90 mL contrast medium at a rate of 3 mL/sec. CT peak and total perfusion maps were obtained from serial CT images, and the initial lesion volumes revealed by CT were compared with final infarct volumes and clinical scores. Overall, the lesion volumes seen on CT peak perfusion maps correlated most strongly with final infarct volumes (R2=0.819, p<0.001, slope of regression line=1.016), but individual data showed that they were less than final infarct volume in 31.4% of patients. In those who showed early clinical improvement (n=6), final infarct volume tended to be overestimated by CT peak perfusion mapping and only on total perfusion maps was there significant correlation between lesion volume and final infarct volume (R2=0.854, p=0.008). The lesion volumes depicted by CT maps showed moderate correlation with baseline clinical scores and clinical outcomes (R=0.445-0.706, p≤0.007). CT peak perfusion maps demonstrate strong correlation between lesion volume and final infarct volume, and accurately predict final infarct volume in about two-thirds of the 35 patients. The lesion volume seen on CT maps shows moderate correlation with clinical outcome

Left Atrial Volume Index and Prediction of Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome: Solar Registry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Alves Secundo Junior

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Background: According to some international studies, patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS and increased left atrial volume index (LAVI have worse long-term prognosis. However, national Brazilian studies confirming this prediction are still lacking. Objective: To evaluate LAVI as a predictor of major cardiovascular events (MCE in patients with ACS during a 365-day follow-up. Methods: Prospective cohort of 171 patients diagnosed with ACS whose LAVI was calculated within 48 hours after hospital admission. According to LAVI, two groups were categorized: normal LAVI (≤ 32 mL/m2 and increased LAVI (> 32 mL/m2. Both groups were compared regarding clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, in- and out-of-hospital outcomes, and occurrence of ECM in up to 365 days. Results: Increased LAVI was observed in 78 patients (45%, and was associated with older age, higher body mass index, hypertension, history of myocardial infarction and previous angioplasty, and lower creatinine clearance and ejection fraction. During hospitalization, acute pulmonary edema was more frequent in patients with increased LAVI (14.1% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.024. After discharge, the occurrence of combined outcome for MCE was higher (p = 0.001 in the group with increased LAVI (26% as compared to the normal LAVI group (7% [RR (95% CI = 3.46 (1.54-7.73 vs. 0.80 (0.69-0.92]. After Cox regression, increased LAVI increased the probability of MCE (HR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.28-7.40, p = 0.012. Conclusion: Increased LAVI is an important predictor of MCE in a one-year follow-up.

Weekly Volume and Dosimetric Changes During Chemoradiotherapy With Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Cancer: A Prospective Observational Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhide, Shreerang A [Institute of Cancer Research, 237 Fulham Road, London SW6 6JB (United Kingdom); Head and Neck Unit, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London SW3 6JJ (United Kingdom); Davies, Mark; Burke, Kevin; McNair, Helen A; Hansen, Vibeke [Department of Radiation Oncology, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London and Sutton (United Kingdom); Barbachano, Y [Department of Statistics, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London and Sutton (United Kingdom); El-Hariry, I A [Head and Neck Unit, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London SW3 6JJ (United Kingdom); Newbold, Kate [Department of Radiation Oncology, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London and Sutton (United Kingdom); Harrington, Kevin J [Institute of Cancer Research, 237 Fulham Road, London SW6 6JB (United Kingdom); Head and Neck Unit, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London SW3 6JJ (United Kingdom); Nutting, Christopher M., E-mail: chris.nutting@rmh.nhs.u [Head and Neck Unit, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London SW3 6JJ (United Kingdom)

2010-04-15

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate prospectively the weekly volume changes in the target volumes and organs at risk and the resulting dosimetric changes during induction chemotherapy followed by chemoradiotherapy with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (C-IMRT) for head-and-neck cancer patients. Methods and Materials: Patients receiving C-IMRT for head-and-neck cancer had repeat CT scans at weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 during radiotherapy. The volume changes of clinical target volume 1 (CTV1) and CTV2 and the resulting dosimetric changes to planning target volume 1 (PTV1) and PTV2 and the organs at risk were measured. Results: The most significant volume differences were seen at week 2 for CTV1 and CTV2. The reductions in the volumes of CTV1 and CTV2 at week 2 were 3.2% and 10%, respectively (p = 0.003 and p < 0.001). The volume changes resulted in a significant reduction in the minimum dose to PTV1 and PTV2 (2 Gy, p = 0.002, and 3.9 Gy, p = 0.03, respectively) and an increased dose range across PTV1 and PTV2 (2.5 Gy, p < 0.001, and 5.1 Gy, p = 0.008, respectively). There was a 15% reduction in the parotid volumes by week 2 (p < 0.001) and 31% by week 4 (p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant increase in the mean dose to the ipsilateral parotid only at week 4 (2.7 Gy, p = 0.006). The parotid glands shifted medially by an average of 2.3 mm (p < 0.001) by week 4. Conclusion: The most significant volumetric changes and dosimetric alterations in the tumor volumes and organs at risk during a course of C-IMRT occur by week 2 of radiotherapy. Further adaptive radiotherapy with replanning, if appropriate, is recommended.

Prospects and Potential Uses of Genomic Prediction of Key Performance Traits in Tetraploid Potato

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Benjamin Stich

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Genomic prediction is a routine tool in breeding programs of most major animal and plant species. However, its usefulness for potato breeding has not yet been evaluated in detail. The objectives of this study were to (i examine the prospects of genomic prediction of key performance traits in a diversity panel of tetraploid potato modeling additive, dominance, and epistatic effects, (ii investigate the effects of size and make up of training set, number of test environments and molecular markers on prediction accuracy, and (iii assess the effect of including markers from candidate genes on the prediction accuracy. With genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP, BayesA, BayesCπ, and Bayesian LASSO, four different prediction methods were used for genomic prediction of relative area under disease progress curve after a Phytophthora infestans infection, plant maturity, maturity corrected resistance, tuber starch content, tuber starch yield (TSY, and tuber yield (TY of 184 tetraploid potato clones or subsets thereof genotyped with the SolCAP 8.3k SNP array. The cross-validated prediction accuracies with GBLUP and the three Bayesian approaches for the six evaluated traits ranged from about 0.5 to about 0.8. For traits with a high expected genetic complexity, such as TSY and TY, we observed an 8% higher prediction accuracy using a model with additive and dominance effects compared with a model with additive effects only. Our results suggest that for oligogenic traits in general and when diagnostic markers are available in particular, the use of Bayesian methods for genomic prediction is highly recommended and that the diagnostic markers should be modeled as fixed effects. The evaluation of the relative performance of genomic prediction vs. phenotypic selection indicated that the former is superior, assuming cycle lengths and selection intensities that are possible to realize in commercial potato breeding programs.

Prediction of Packed Cell Volume after Whole Blood Transfusion in Small Ruminants and South American Camelids: 80 Cases (2006-2016).

Science.gov (United States)

Luethy, D; Stefanovski, D; Salber, R; Sweeney, R W

2017-11-01

Calculation of desired whole blood transfusion volume relies on an estimate of an animal's circulating blood volume, generally accepted to be 0.08 L/kg or 8% of the animal's body weight in kilograms. To use packed cell volume before and after whole blood transfusion to evaluate the accuracy of a commonly used equation to predict packed cell volume after transfusion in small ruminants and South American camelids; to determine the nature and frequency of adverse transfusion reactions in small ruminants and camelids after whole blood transfusion. Fifty-eight small ruminants and 22 alpacas that received whole blood transfusions for anemia. Retrospective case series; medical record review for small ruminants and camelids that received whole blood transfusions during hospitalization. Mean volume of distribution of blood as a fraction of body weight in sheep (0.075 L/kg, 7.5% BW) and goats (0.076 L/kg, 7.6% BW) differed significantly (P blood volume (volume of distribution of blood) is adequate for calculation of transfusion volumes; however, use of the species-specific circulating blood volume can improve calculation of transfusion volume to predict and achieve desired packed cell volume. The incidence of transfusion reactions in small ruminants and camelids is low. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Plasma uric acid and tumor volume are highly predictive of outcome in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients receiving intensity modulated radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Hui; Lin, Huan-Xin; Ge, Nan; Wang, Hong-Zhi; Sun, Rui; Hu, Wei-Han

2013-01-01

The combined predictive value of plasma uric acid and primary tumor volume in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients receiving intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) has not yet been determined. In this retrospective study, plasma uric acid level was measured after treatment in 130 histologically-proven NPC patients treated with IMRT. Tumor volume was calculated from treatment planning CT scans. Overall (OS), progression-free (PFS) and distant metastasis-free (DMFS) survival were compared using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log rank test, and Cox multivariate and univariate regression models were created. Patients with a small tumor volume (<27 mL) had a significantly better DMFS, PFS and OS than patients with a large tumor volume. Patients with a high post-treatment plasma uric acid level (>301 μmol/L) had a better DMFS, PFS and OS than patients with a low post-treatment plasma uric acid level. Patients with a small tumor volume and high post-treatment plasma uric acid level had a favorable prognosis compared to patients with a large tumor volume and low post-treatment plasma uric acid level (7-year overall OS, 100% vs. 48.7%, P <0.001 and PFS, 100% vs. 69.5%, P <0.001). Post-treatment plasma uric acid level and pre-treatment tumor volume have predictive value for outcome in NPC patients receiving IMRT. NPC patients with a large tumor volume and low post-treatment plasma uric acid level may benefit from additional aggressive treatment after IMRT

Does the pancreatic volume reduction rate using serial computed tomographic volumetry predict new onset diabetes after pancreaticoduodenectomy?

Science.gov (United States)

Yun, Sung Pil; Seo, Hyung-Il; Kim, Suk; Kim, Dong Uk; Baek, Dong Hoon

2017-01-01

Abstract Volume reduction of the pancreatic tissues following a pancreatectomy can lead to the deterioration of glucose homeostasis. This is defined as pancreatogenic diabetes mellitus (DM). The objective of this study was to investigate the occurrence of new-onset DM (NODM) and evaluate the risk factors, including the pancreas volume reduction rate in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Sixty-six patients without preoperative DM underwent PD for periampullary tumors between August 2007 and December 2012 and were included in this analysis. These patients underwent follow-up tests and abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan 7 days, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, and 36 months after the operation. The pancreas volume reduction rate was calculated by CT volumetry. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to the postoperative development of DM. After PD, newly diagnosed DM occurred in 16 patients (24.2%). The incidence of DM was highest among patients with carcinomas with an advanced T stage. The pancreatic volume reduction rate after 6 and 12 months in the NODM group was significantly higher than the normal glucose group in the univariate analysis. In the multivariate analysis, the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM (P = 0.002). This study suggests that the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM. CT volumetry of the pancreas may be useful as a predictor of NODM after PD. PMID:28353594

Tumor Volume Changes Assessed by Three-Dimensional Magnetic Resonance Volumetry in Rectal Cancer Patients After Preoperative Chemoradiation: The Impact of the Volume Reduction Ratio on the Prediction of Pathologic Complete Response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Young Chul; Kim, Hyunki; Kim, Young Wan; Hur, Hyuk; Kim, Jin Soo; Min, Byung Soh; Kim, Hogeun; Lim, Joon Seok; Seong, Jinsil; Keum, Ki Chang; Kim, Nam Kyu

2010-01-01

Purpose: The aim of this study was to determine the correlation between tumor volume changes assessed by three-dimensional (3D) magnetic resonance (MR) volumetry and the histopathologic tumor response in rectal cancer patients undergoing preoperative chemoradiation therapy (CRT). Methods and Materials: A total of 84 patients who underwent preoperative CRT followed by radical surgery were prospectively enrolled in the study. The post-treatment tumor volume and tumor volume reduction ratio (% decrease ratio), as shown by 3D MR volumetry, were compared with the histopathologic response, as shown by T and N downstaging and the tumor regression grade (TRG). Results: There were no significant differences in the post-treatment tumor volume and the volume reduction ratio shown by 3D MR volumetry with respect to T and N downstaging and the tumor regression grade. In a multivariate analysis, the tumor volume reduction ratio was not significantly associated with T and N downstaging. The volume reduction ratio (>75%, p = 0.01) and the pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen level (≤3 ng/ml, p = 0.01), but not the post-treatment volume shown by 3D MR (≤ 5ml), were, however, significantly associated with an increased pathologic complete response rate. Conclusion: More than 75% of the tumor volume reduction ratios were significantly associated with a high pathologic complete response rate. Therefore, limited treatment options such as local excision or simple observation might be considered after preoperative CRT in this patient population.

Emphysema predicts hospitalisation and incident airflow obstruction among older smokers: a prospective cohort study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David A McAllister

Full Text Available Emphysema on CT is common in older smokers. We hypothesised that emphysema on CT predicts acute episodes of care for chronic lower respiratory disease among older smokers.Participants in a lung cancer screening study age ≥ 60 years were recruited into a prospective cohort study in 2001-02. Two radiologists independently visually assessed the severity of emphysema as absent, mild, moderate or severe. Percent emphysema was defined as the proportion of voxels ≤ -910 Hounsfield Units. Participants completed a median of 5 visits over a median of 6 years of follow-up. The primary outcome was hospitalization, emergency room or urgent office visit for chronic lower respiratory disease. Spirometry was performed following ATS/ERS guidelines. Airflow obstruction was defined as FEV1/FVC ratio <0.70 and FEV1<80% predicted.Of 521 participants, 4% had moderate or severe emphysema, which was associated with acute episodes of care (rate ratio 1.89; 95% CI: 1.01-3.52 adjusting for age, sex and race/ethnicity, as was percent emphysema, with similar associations for hospitalisation. Emphysema on visual assessment also predicted incident airflow obstruction (HR 5.14; 95% CI 2.19-21.1.Visually assessed emphysema and percent emphysema on CT predicted acute episodes of care for chronic lower respiratory disease, with the former predicting incident airflow obstruction among older smokers.

Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

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Chieh-Fan Chen

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

Premorbid teacher-rated social functioning predicts adult schizophrenia-spectrum disorder: A high-risk prospective investigation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tsuji, Thomas; Kline, Emily; Sorensen, Holger J.

2013-01-01

Social functioning deficits are a core component of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and may emerge years prior to the onset of diagnosable illness. The current study prospectively examines the relation between teacher-rated childhood social dysfunction and later mental illness among participants...... who were at genetic high-risk for schizophrenia and controls (n=244). The teacher-rated social functioning scale significantly predicted psychiatric outcomes (schizophrenia-spectrum vs. other psychiatric disorder vs. no mental illness). Poor premorbid social functioning appears to constitute a marker...

Predictive Treatment Management: Incorporating a Predictive Tumor Response Model Into Robust Prospective Treatment Planning for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Pengpeng, E-mail: zhangp@mskcc.org [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Yorke, Ellen; Hu, Yu-Chi; Mageras, Gig [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Rimner, Andreas [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Deasy, Joseph O. [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States)

2014-02-01

Purpose: We hypothesized that a treatment planning technique that incorporates predicted lung tumor regression into optimization, predictive treatment planning (PTP), could allow dose escalation to the residual tumor while maintaining coverage of the initial target without increasing dose to surrounding organs at risk (OARs). Methods and Materials: We created a model to estimate the geometric presence of residual tumors after radiation therapy using planning computed tomography (CT) and weekly cone beam CT scans of 5 lung cancer patients. For planning purposes, we modeled the dynamic process of tumor shrinkage by morphing the original planning target volume (PTV{sub orig}) in 3 equispaced steps to the predicted residue (PTV{sub pred}). Patients were treated with a uniform prescription dose to PTV{sub orig}. By contrast, PTP optimization started with the same prescription dose to PTV{sub orig} but linearly increased the dose at each step, until reaching the highest dose achievable to PTV{sub pred} consistent with OAR limits. This method is compared with midcourse adaptive replanning. Results: Initial parenchymal gross tumor volume (GTV) ranged from 3.6 to 186.5 cm{sup 3}. On average, the primary GTV and PTV decreased by 39% and 27%, respectively, at the end of treatment. The PTP approach gave PTV{sub orig} at least the prescription dose, and it increased the mean dose of the true residual tumor by an average of 6.0 Gy above the adaptive approach. Conclusions: PTP, incorporating a tumor regression model from the start, represents a new approach to increase tumor dose without increasing toxicities, and reduce clinical workload compared with the adaptive approach, although model verification using per-patient midcourse imaging would be prudent.

Prediction of sonic boom from experimental near-field overpressure data. Volume 2: Data base construction

Science.gov (United States)

Glatt, C. R.; Reiners, S. J.; Hague, D. S.

1975-01-01

A computerized method for storing, updating and augmenting experimentally determined overpressure signatures has been developed. A data base of pressure signatures for a shuttle type vehicle has been stored. The data base has been used for the prediction of sonic boom with the program described in Volume I.

A predictive model to guide management of the overlap region between target volume and organs at risk in prostate cancer volumetric modulated arc therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mattes, Malcolm D.; Lee, Jennifer C.; Einaiem, Sara; Guirguis, Adel; Ikoro, N. C.; Ashamalla Hani

2013-01-01

The goal of this study is to determine whether the magnitude of overlap between planning target volume (PTV) and rectum (Rectum overlap ) or PTV and bladder (Bladder overlap ) in prostate cancer volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) is predictive of the dose-volume relationships achieved after optimization, and to identify predictive equations and cutoff values using these overlap volumes beyond which the Quantitative Analyses of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) dose-volume constraints are unlikely to be met. Fifty-seven patients with prostate cancer underwent VMAT planning using identical optimization conditions and normalization. The PTV (for the 50.4 Gy primary plan and 30.6 Gy boost plan) included 5 to 10 mm margins around the prostate and seminal vesicles. Pearson correlations, linear regression analyses, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to correlate the percentage overlap with dose-volume parameters. The percentage Rectum overlap and Bladder overlap correlated with sparing of that organ but minimally impacted other dose-volume parameters, predicted the primary plan rectum V 45 and bladder V 50 with R 2 = 0.78 and R 2 = 0.83, respectively, and predicted the boost plan rectum V 30 and bladder V 30 with R 2 = 0.53 and R 2 = 0.81, respectively. The optimal cutoff value of boost Rectumoverlap to predict rectum V75 >15% was 3.5% (sensitivity 100%, specificity 94%, p overlap to predict bladder V 80 >10% was 5.0% (sensitivity 83%, specificity 100%, p < 0.01). The degree of overlap between PTV and bladder or rectum can be used to accurately guide physicians on the use of interventions to limit the extent of the overlap region prior to optimization.

Optimizing human semen cryopreservation by reducing test vial volume and repetitive test vial sampling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Christian F S; Ohl, Dana A; Parker, Walter R

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate optimal test vial (TV) volume, utility and reliability of TVs, intermediate temperature exposure (-88°C to -93°C) before cryostorage, cryostorage in nitrogen vapor (VN2) and liquid nitrogen (LN2), and long-term stability of VN2 cryostorage of human semen. DESIGN......: Prospective clinical laboratory study. SETTING: University assisted reproductive technology (ART) laboratory. PATIENT(S): A total of 594 patients undergoing semen analysis and cryopreservation. INTERVENTION(S): Semen analysis, cryopreservation with different intermediate steps and in different volumes (50......-1,000 μL), and long-term storage in LN2 or VN2. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Optimal TV volume, prediction of cryosurvival (CS) in ART procedure vials (ARTVs) with pre-freeze semen parameters and TV CS, post-thaw motility after two- or three-step semen cryopreservation and cryostorage in VN2 and LN2. RESULT...

Prediction of quantitative intrathoracic fluid volume to diagnose pulmonary oedema using LabVIEW.

Science.gov (United States)

Urooj, Shabana; Khan, M; Ansari, A Q; Lay-Ekuakille, Aimé; Salhan, Ashok K

2012-01-01

Pulmonary oedema is a life-threatening disease that requires special attention in the area of research and clinical diagnosis. Computer-based techniques are rarely used to quantify the intrathoracic fluid volume (IFV) for diagnostic purposes. This paper discusses a software program developed to detect and diagnose pulmonary oedema using LabVIEW. The software runs on anthropometric dimensions and physiological parameters, mainly transthoracic electrical impedance (TEI). This technique is accurate and faster than existing manual techniques. The LabVIEW software was used to compute the parameters required to quantify IFV. An equation relating per cent control and IFV was obtained. The results of predicted TEI and measured TEI were compared with previously reported data to validate the developed program. It was found that the predicted values of TEI obtained from the computer-based technique were much closer to the measured values of TEI. Six new subjects were enrolled to measure and predict transthoracic impedance and hence to quantify IFV. A similar difference was also observed in the measured and predicted values of TEI for the new subjects.

Method of tumor volume evaluation using magnetic resonance imaging for outcome prediction in cervical cancer treated with concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hun Jung; Kim, Woo Chul [Inha University Hospital, Inha University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2012-06-15

To evaluate the patterns of tumor shape and to compare tumor volume derived from simple diameter-based ellipsoid measurement with that derived from tracing the entire tumor contour using region of interest (ROI)-based 3D volumetry with respect to the prediction outcome in cervical cancer patients treated with concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 98 patients with cervical cancer (stage IB-IIIB). The tumor shape was classified into two categories: ellipsoid and non-ellipsoid shape. ROI-based volumetry was derived from each magnetic resonance slice on the work station. For the diameter-based surrogate 'ellipsoid volume,' the three orthogonal diameters were measured to calculate volume as an ellipsoid. The more than half of tumor (55.1%) had a non-ellipsoid configuration. The predictions for outcome were consistent between two volume groups, with overall survival of 93.6% and 87.7% for small tumor (<20 mL), 62.9% and 69.1% for intermediate-size tumor (20-39 mL), and 14.5% and 16.7% for large tumors ({>=}40 mL) using ROI and diameter based measurement, respectively. Disease-free survival was 93.8% and 90.6% for small tumor, 54.3% and 62.7% for intermediate-size tumor, and 13.7% and 10.3% for large tumor using ROI and diameter based method, respectively. Differences in outcome between size groups were statistically significant, and the differences in outcome predicted by the tumor volume by two different methods. Our data suggested that large numbers of cervical cancers are not ellipsoid. However, simple diameter-based tumor volume measurement appears to be useful in comparison with ROI-based volumetry for predicting outcome in cervical cancer patients.

Method of tumor volume evaluation using magnetic resonance imaging for outcome prediction in cervical cancer treated with concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hun Jung; Kim, Woo Chul

2012-01-01

To evaluate the patterns of tumor shape and to compare tumor volume derived from simple diameter-based ellipsoid measurement with that derived from tracing the entire tumor contour using region of interest (ROI)-based 3D volumetry with respect to the prediction outcome in cervical cancer patients treated with concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 98 patients with cervical cancer (stage IB-IIIB). The tumor shape was classified into two categories: ellipsoid and non-ellipsoid shape. ROI-based volumetry was derived from each magnetic resonance slice on the work station. For the diameter-based surrogate 'ellipsoid volume,' the three orthogonal diameters were measured to calculate volume as an ellipsoid. The more than half of tumor (55.1%) had a non-ellipsoid configuration. The predictions for outcome were consistent between two volume groups, with overall survival of 93.6% and 87.7% for small tumor (<20 mL), 62.9% and 69.1% for intermediate-size tumor (20-39 mL), and 14.5% and 16.7% for large tumors (≥40 mL) using ROI and diameter based measurement, respectively. Disease-free survival was 93.8% and 90.6% for small tumor, 54.3% and 62.7% for intermediate-size tumor, and 13.7% and 10.3% for large tumor using ROI and diameter based method, respectively. Differences in outcome between size groups were statistically significant, and the differences in outcome predicted by the tumor volume by two different methods. Our data suggested that large numbers of cervical cancers are not ellipsoid. However, simple diameter-based tumor volume measurement appears to be useful in comparison with ROI-based volumetry for predicting outcome in cervical cancer patients.

Whole-brain perfusion CT using a toggling table technique to predict final infarct volume in acute ischemic stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Schrader, I; Wilk, D; Jansen, O; Riedel, C

2013-09-01

To evaluate how accurately final infarct volume in acute ischemic stroke can be predicted with perfusion CT (PCT) using a 64-MDCT unit and the toggling table technique. Retrospective analysis of 89 patients with acute ischemic stroke who underwent CCT, CT angiography (CTA) and PCT using the "toggling table" technique within the first three hours after symptom onset. In patients with successful thrombolytic therapy (n = 48) and in those without effective thrombolytic therapy (n = 41), the infarct volume and the volume of the penumbra on PCT were compared to the infarct size on follow-up images (CT or MRI) performed within 8 days. The feasibility of complete infarct volume prediction by 8 cm cranio-caudal coverage was evaluated. The correlation between the volume of hypoperfusion on PCT defined by cerebral blood volume reduction and final infarct volume was strongest in patients with successful thrombolytic therapy with underestimation of the definite infarct volume by 8.5 ml on average. The CBV map had the greatest prognostic value. In patients without successful thrombolytic therapy, the final infarct volume was overestimated by 12.1 ml compared to the MTT map on PCT. All infarcts were detected completely. There were no false-positive or false-negative results. Using PCT and the "toggling table" technique in acute stroke patients is helpful for the rapid and accurate quantification of the minimal final infarct and is therefore a prognostic parameter which has to be evaluated in further studies to assess its impact on therapeutic decision. ▶ Using PCT and the “toggling table technique” allows accurate quantification of the infarct core and penumbra. ▶ It is possible to record dynamic perfusion parameters quickly and easily of almost the entire supratentorial brain volume on a 64-slice MDCT unit. ▶ The technique allows identification of those patients who could profit from thrombolytic therapy outside the established time intervals. © Georg Thieme Verlag

Serial assessment of pulmonary lesion volume by computed tomography allows survival prediction in invasive pulmonary aspergillosis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vehreschild, J.J.; Vehreschild, M.J.G.T. [University Hospital of Cologne, Department I of Internal Medicine, Cologne (Germany); German Centre for Infection Research, Partner Site Bonn-Cologne, Cologne (Germany); Heussel, C.P. [Chest Clinic at University Hospital Heidelberg, Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology with Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); University Hospital of Heidelberg, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Heidelberg (Germany); Translational Lung Research Center Heidelberg (TLRC), Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Heidelberg (Germany); Groll, A.H. [University Children' s Hospital, Infectious Disease Research Program, Department of Paediatric Haematology/Oncology, Muenster (Germany); Silling, G. [University of Muenster, Department of Medicine A, Haematology/Oncology, Muenster (Germany); Wuerthwein, G. [University Hospital Muenster, Centre for Clinical Trials, ZKS Muenster (Germany); Brecht, M. [Chest Clinic at University Hospital Heidelberg, Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology with Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); Cornely, O.A. [University Hospital of Cologne, Department I of Internal Medicine, Cologne (Germany); University of Cologne, Clinical Trials Center Cologne, ZKS Koeln (BMBF 01KN1106), Cologne (Germany); Center for Integrated Oncology CIO Koeln Bonn, Cologne (Germany); University of Cologne, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), Cologne (Germany)

2017-08-15

Serial chest CT is the standard of care to establish treatment success in invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA). Data are lacking how response should be defined. Digital CT images from a clinical trial on treatment of IPA were re-evaluated and compared with available biomarkers. Total volume of pneumonia was added up after manual measurement of each lesion, followed by statistical analysis. One-hundred and ninety CT scans and 309 follow-up datasets from 40 patients were available for analysis. Thirty-one were neutropenic. Baseline galactomannan (OR 4.06, 95%CI: 1.08-15.31) and lesion volume (OR 3.14, 95%CI: 0.73-13.52) were predictive of death. Lesion volume at d7 and trend between d7 and d14 were strong predictors of death (OR 20.01, 95%CI: 1.42-282.00 and OR 15.97, 95%CI: 1.62-157.32) and treatment being rated as unsuccessful (OR 4.75, 95%CI: 0.94-24.05 and OR 40.69, 95%CI: 2.55-649.03), which was confirmed by a Cox proportional hazards model using time-dependent covariates. Any increase in CT lesion volume between day 7 and day 14 was a sensitive marker of a lethal outcome (>50%), supporting a CT rescan each one and 2 weeks after initial detection of IPA. The predictive value exceeded all other biomarkers. Further CT follow-up after response at day 14 was of low additional value. (orig.)

SU-G-JeP3-09: Tumor Location Prediction Using Natural Respiratory Volume for Respiratory Gated Radiation Therapy (RGRT): System Verification Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, M; Jung, J; Yoon, D; Shin, H; Kim, S; Suh, T [The catholic university of Korea, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2016-06-15

Purpose: Respiratory gated radiation therapy (RGRT) gives accurate results when a patient’s breathing is stable and regular. Thus, the patient should be fully aware during respiratory pattern training before undergoing the RGRT treatment. In order to bypass the process of respiratory pattern training, we propose a target location prediction system for RGRT that uses only natural respiratory volume, and confirm its application. Methods: In order to verify the proposed target location prediction system, an in-house phantom set was used. This set involves a chest phantom including target, external markers, and motion generator. Natural respiratory volume signals were generated using the random function in MATLAB code. In the chest phantom, the target takes a linear motion based on the respiratory signal. After a four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) scan of the in-house phantom, the motion trajectory was derived as a linear equation. The accuracy of the linear equation was compared with that of the motion algorithm used by the operating motion generator. In addition, we attempted target location prediction using random respiratory volume values. Results: The correspondence rate of the linear equation derived from the 4DCT images with the motion algorithm of the motion generator was 99.41%. In addition, the average error rate of target location prediction was 1.23% for 26 cases. Conclusion: We confirmed the applicability of our proposed target location prediction system for RGRT using natural respiratory volume. If additional clinical studies can be conducted, a more accurate prediction system can be realized without requiring respiratory pattern training.

Stroke volume variation compared with pulse pressure variation and cardiac index changes for prediction of fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Randa Aly Soliman

2015-04-01

Conclusions: Baseline stroke volume variation ⩾8.15% predicted fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients with acute circulatory failure. The study also confirmed the ability of pulse pressure variation to predict fluid responsiveness.

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2008-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

A predictive model to guide management of the overlap region between target volume and organs at risk in prostate cancer volumetric modulated arc therapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mattes, Malcolm D.; Lee, Jennifer C.; Einaiem, Sara; Guirguis, Adel; Ikoro, N. C.; Ashamalla Hani [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, New York Methodist Hospital, Brooklyn (United States)

2013-12-15

The goal of this study is to determine whether the magnitude of overlap between planning target volume (PTV) and rectum (Rectum{sub overlap}) or PTV and bladder (Bladder{sub overlap}) in prostate cancer volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) is predictive of the dose-volume relationships achieved after optimization, and to identify predictive equations and cutoff values using these overlap volumes beyond which the Quantitative Analyses of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) dose-volume constraints are unlikely to be met. Fifty-seven patients with prostate cancer underwent VMAT planning using identical optimization conditions and normalization. The PTV (for the 50.4 Gy primary plan and 30.6 Gy boost plan) included 5 to 10 mm margins around the prostate and seminal vesicles. Pearson correlations, linear regression analyses, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to correlate the percentage overlap with dose-volume parameters. The percentage Rectum{sub overlap} and Bladder{sub overlap} correlated with sparing of that organ but minimally impacted other dose-volume parameters, predicted the primary plan rectum V{sub 45} and bladder V{sub 50} with R{sup 2} = 0.78 and R{sup 2} = 0.83, respectively, and predicted the boost plan rectum V{sub 30} and bladder V{sub 30} with R{sup 2} = 0.53 and R{sup 2} = 0.81, respectively. The optimal cutoff value of boost Rectumoverlap to predict rectum V75 >15% was 3.5% (sensitivity 100%, specificity 94%, p < 0.01), and the optimal cutoff value of boost Bladder{sub overlap} to predict bladder V{sub 80} >10% was 5.0% (sensitivity 83%, specificity 100%, p < 0.01). The degree of overlap between PTV and bladder or rectum can be used to accurately guide physicians on the use of interventions to limit the extent of the overlap region prior to optimization.

DemQSAR: predicting human volume of distribution and clearance of drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Demir-Kavuk, Ozgur; Bentzien, Jörg; Muegge, Ingo; Knapp, Ernst-Walter

2011-12-01

In silico methods characterizing molecular compounds with respect to pharmacologically relevant properties can accelerate the identification of new drugs and reduce their development costs. Quantitative structure-activity/-property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) correlate structure and physico-chemical properties of molecular compounds with a specific functional activity/property under study. Typically a large number of molecular features are generated for the compounds. In many cases the number of generated features exceeds the number of molecular compounds with known property values that are available for learning. Machine learning methods tend to overfit the training data in such situations, i.e. the method adjusts to very specific features of the training data, which are not characteristic for the considered property. This problem can be alleviated by diminishing the influence of unimportant, redundant or even misleading features. A better strategy is to eliminate such features completely. Ideally, a molecular property can be described by a small number of features that are chemically interpretable. The purpose of the present contribution is to provide a predictive modeling approach, which combines feature generation, feature selection, model building and control of overtraining into a single application called DemQSAR. DemQSAR is used to predict human volume of distribution (VD(ss)) and human clearance (CL). To control overtraining, quadratic and linear regularization terms were employed. A recursive feature selection approach is used to reduce the number of descriptors. The prediction performance is as good as the best predictions reported in the recent literature. The example presented here demonstrates that DemQSAR can generate a model that uses very few features while maintaining high predictive power. A standalone DemQSAR Java application for model building of any user defined property as well as a web interface for the prediction of human VD(ss) and CL is

A physical multifield model predicts the development of volume and structure in the human brain

Science.gov (United States)

Rooij, Rijk de; Kuhl, Ellen

2018-03-01

The prenatal development of the human brain is characterized by a rapid increase in brain volume and a development of a highly folded cortex. At the cellular level, these events are enabled by symmetric and asymmetric cell division in the ventricular regions of the brain followed by an outwards cell migration towards the peripheral regions. The role of mechanics during brain development has been suggested and acknowledged in past decades, but remains insufficiently understood. Here we propose a mechanistic model that couples cell division, cell migration, and brain volume growth to accurately model the developing brain between weeks 10 and 29 of gestation. Our model accurately predicts a 160-fold volume increase from 1.5 cm3 at week 10 to 235 cm3 at week 29 of gestation. In agreement with human brain development, the cortex begins to form around week 22 and accounts for about 30% of the total brain volume at week 29. Our results show that cell division and coupling between cell density and volume growth are essential to accurately model brain volume development, whereas cell migration and diffusion contribute mainly to the development of the cortex. We demonstrate that complex folding patterns, including sinusoidal folds and creases, emerge naturally as the cortex develops, even for low stiffness contrasts between the cortex and subcortex.

Validation of the RRE-90 Scale to Predict Stroke Risk after Transient Symptoms with Infarction: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Song

Full Text Available The risk of stroke after a transient ischemic attack (TIA for patients with a positive diffusion-weighted image (DWI, i.e., transient symptoms with infarction (TSI, is much higher than for those with a negative DWI. The aim of this study was to validate the predictive value of a web-based recurrence risk estimator (RRE; http://www.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/RRE/ of TSI.Data from the prospective hospital-based TIA database of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University were analyzed. The RRE and ABCD2 scores were calculated within 7 days of symptom onset. The predictive outcome was ischemic stroke occurrence at 90 days. The receiver-operating characteristics curves were plotted, and the predictive value of the two models was assessed by computing the C statistics.A total of 221 eligible patients were prospectively enrolled, of whom 46 (20.81% experienced a stroke within 90 days. The 90-day stroke risk in high-risk TSI patients (RRE ≥4 was 3.406-fold greater than in those at low risk (P <0.001. The C statistic of RRE (0.681; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.592-0.771 was statistically higher than that of ABCD2 score (0.546; 95% CI, 0.454-0.638; Z = 2.115; P = 0.0344 at 90 days.The RRE score had a higher predictive value than the ABCD2 score for assessing the 90-day risk of stroke after TSI.

Prospective evaluation of radiation-induced skin toxicity in a race/ethnically diverse breast cancer population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, Jean L.; Takita, Cristiane; Reis, Isildinha M.; Zhao, Wei; Lee, Eunkyung; Nelson, Omar L.; Hu, Jennifer J.

2016-01-01

We evaluated predictors of radiation-induced skin toxicity in a prospective study of a tri-racial/ethnic breast cancer population. We evaluated patient demographics, tumor characteristics, and treatment variables in the first 392 patients in a prospective study assessing radiation-induced skin toxicity. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate potential predictors of skin toxicity. The study consists of 59 non-Hispanic whites (NHW; 15%), 241 Hispanic Whites (HW; 62%), 79 black or African Americans (AA; 20%), and 13 others (3%). Overall, 48% developed grade 0–1 skin toxicity, 49.8% grade 2, and 2.2% grade 3 by the National Cancer Institute's Common Toxicity Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) scale. Twenty-one percent developed moist desquamation. In multivariate analysis, higher body mass index (BMI; OR = 2.09; 95%CI = 1.15, 3.82), higher disease stage (OR = 1.82; 95%CI = 1.06, 3.11), ER-positive/PR-negative status (OR = 2.74; 95%CI = 1.26, 5.98), and conventionally fractionated regimens (OR = 3.25; 95%CI = 1.76, 6.01) were significantly associated with higher skin toxicity grade after adjustment for age, race, ethnicity, ER status, and breast volume. BMI specifically predicted for moist desquamation, but not degree of erythema. In this racially and ethnically diverse cohort of breast cancer patients receiving radiation to the intact breast, risk factors including BMI, disease stage, and conventionally fractionated radiation predicted for higher skin toxicity grade, whereas age, race, ethnicity, and breast volume did not. BMI specifically predicted for moist desquamation, suggesting that preventive measures to address this particular outcome should be investigated

Identification of groundwater prospective zones by using remote ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 114; Issue 5. Identification of groundwater prospective zones by using remote sensing and geoelectrical methods in Jharia and Raniganj coalfields, Dhanbad district, Jharkhand state. Basudeo Rai A Tiwari V S Dubey. Volume 114 Issue 5 October 2005 pp 515-522 ...

Clinical and MRI models predicting amyloid deposition in progressive aphasia and apraxia of speech.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitwell, Jennifer L; Weigand, Stephen D; Duffy, Joseph R; Strand, Edythe A; Machulda, Mary M; Senjem, Matthew L; Gunter, Jeffrey L; Lowe, Val J; Jack, Clifford R; Josephs, Keith A

2016-01-01

Beta-amyloid (Aβ) deposition can be observed in primary progressive aphasia (PPA) and progressive apraxia of speech (PAOS). While it is typically associated with logopenic PPA, there are exceptions that make predicting Aβ status challenging based on clinical diagnosis alone. We aimed to determine whether MRI regional volumes or clinical data could help predict Aβ deposition. One hundred and thirty-nine PPA (n = 97; 15 agrammatic, 53 logopenic, 13 semantic and 16 unclassified) and PAOS (n = 42) subjects were prospectively recruited into a cross-sectional study and underwent speech/language assessments, 3.0 T MRI and C11-Pittsburgh Compound B PET. The presence of Aβ was determined using a 1.5 SUVR cut-point. Atlas-based parcellation was used to calculate gray matter volumes of 42 regions-of-interest across the brain. Penalized binary logistic regression was utilized to determine what combination of MRI regions, and what combination of speech and language tests, best predicts Aβ (+) status. The optimal MRI model and optimal clinical model both performed comparably in their ability to accurately classify subjects according to Aβ status. MRI accurately classified 81% of subjects using 14 regions. Small left superior temporal and inferior parietal volumes and large left Broca's area volumes were particularly predictive of Aβ (+) status. Clinical scores accurately classified 83% of subjects using 12 tests. Phonological errors and repetition deficits, and absence of agrammatism and motor speech deficits were particularly predictive of Aβ (+) status. In comparison, clinical diagnosis was able to accurately classify 89% of subjects. However, the MRI model performed well in predicting Aβ deposition in unclassified PPA. Clinical diagnosis provides optimum prediction of Aβ status at the group level, although regional MRI measurements and speech and language testing also performed well and could have advantages in predicting Aβ status in unclassified PPA subjects.

Clinical and MRI models predicting amyloid deposition in progressive aphasia and apraxia of speech

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer L. Whitwell

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Beta-amyloid (Aβ deposition can be observed in primary progressive aphasia (PPA and progressive apraxia of speech (PAOS. While it is typically associated with logopenic PPA, there are exceptions that make predicting Aβ status challenging based on clinical diagnosis alone. We aimed to determine whether MRI regional volumes or clinical data could help predict Aβ deposition. One hundred and thirty-nine PPA (n = 97; 15 agrammatic, 53 logopenic, 13 semantic and 16 unclassified and PAOS (n = 42 subjects were prospectively recruited into a cross-sectional study and underwent speech/language assessments, 3.0 T MRI and C11-Pittsburgh Compound B PET. The presence of Aβ was determined using a 1.5 SUVR cut-point. Atlas-based parcellation was used to calculate gray matter volumes of 42 regions-of-interest across the brain. Penalized binary logistic regression was utilized to determine what combination of MRI regions, and what combination of speech and language tests, best predicts Aβ (+ status. The optimal MRI model and optimal clinical model both performed comparably in their ability to accurately classify subjects according to Aβ status. MRI accurately classified 81% of subjects using 14 regions. Small left superior temporal and inferior parietal volumes and large left Broca's area volumes were particularly predictive of Aβ (+ status. Clinical scores accurately classified 83% of subjects using 12 tests. Phonological errors and repetition deficits, and absence of agrammatism and motor speech deficits were particularly predictive of Aβ (+ status. In comparison, clinical diagnosis was able to accurately classify 89% of subjects. However, the MRI model performed well in predicting Aβ deposition in unclassified PPA. Clinical diagnosis provides optimum prediction of Aβ status at the group level, although regional MRI measurements and speech and language testing also performed well and could have advantages in predicting Aβ status in unclassified

Weekly Dose-Volume Parameters of Mucosa and Constrictor Muscles Predict the Use of Percutaneous Endoscopic Gastrostomy During Exclusive Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Oropharyngeal Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Gunn, G. Brandon; Parker, Brent C.; Endres, Eugene J.; Zeng Jing; Fiorino, Claudio

2011-01-01

Purpose: To define predictors of percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) use during intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for oropharyngeal cancer. Methods and Materials: Data for 59 consecutive patients treated with exclusive IMRT at a single institution were recovered. Of 59 patients, 25 were treated with hyperfractionation (78 Gy, 1.3 Gy per fraction, twice daily; 'HYPER'); and 34 of 59 were treated with a once-daily fractionation schedule (66 Gy, 2.2 Gy per fraction, or 70 Gy, 2 Gy per fraction; 'no-HYPER'). On the basis of symptoms during treatment, a PEG tube could have been placed as appropriate. A number of clinical/dosimetric factors, including the weekly dose-volume histogram of oral mucosa (OM DVHw) and weekly mean dose to constrictors and larynx, were considered. The OM DVHw of patients with and without PEG were compared to assess the most predictive dose-volume combinations. Results: Of 59 patients, 22 needed a PEG tube during treatment (for 15 of 22, ≥3 months). The best cutoff values for OM DVHw were V9.5 Gy/week 3 and V10 Gy/week 3 . At univariate analysis, fractionation, mean weekly dose to OM and superior and middle constrictors, and OM DVHw were strongly correlated with the risk of PEG use. In a stepwise multivariate logistic analysis, OM V9.5 Gy/week (≥64 vs. 3 ) was the most predictive parameter (odds ratio 30.8, 95% confidence interval 3.7-254.2, p = 0.0015), confirmed even in the no-HYPER subgroup (odds ratio 21, 95% CI 2.1 confidence interval 210.1, p = 0.01). Conclusions: The risk of PEG use is drastically reduced when OM V9.5-V10 Gy/week is 3 . These data warrant prospective validation.

Sasang constitutional types for the risk prediction of metabolic syndrome: a 14-year longitudinal prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sunghee; Lee, Seung Ku; Kim, Jong Yeol; Cho, Namhan; Shin, Chol

2017-09-02

To examine whether the use of Sasang constitutional (SC) types, such as Tae-yang (TY), Tae-eum (TE), So-yang (SY), and So-eum (SE) types, increases the accuracy of risk prediction for metabolic syndrome. From 2001 to 2014, 3529 individuals aged 40 to 69 years participated in a longitudinal prospective cohort. The Cox proportional hazard model was utilized to predict the risk of developing metabolic syndrome. During the 14 year follow-up, 1591 incident events of metabolic syndrome were observed. Individuals with TE type had higher body mass indexes and waist circumferences than individuals with SY and SE types. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome was the highest among individuals with the TE type, followed by the SY type and the SE type. When the prediction risk models for incident metabolic syndrome were compared, the area under the curve for the model using SC types was significantly increased to 0.8173. Significant predictors for incident metabolic syndrome were different according to the SC types. For individuals with the TE type, the significant predictors were age, sex, body mass index (BMI), education, smoking, drinking, fasting glucose level, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level. For Individuals with the SE type, the predictors were sex, smoking, fasting glucose, HDL cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level, while the predictors in individuals with the SY type were age, sex, BMI, smoking, drinking, total cholesterol level, fasting glucose level, HDL cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level. In this prospective cohort study among 3529 individuals, we observed that utilizing the SC types significantly increased the accuracy of the risk prediction for the development of metabolic syndrome.

Utility of the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior for predicting physician behavior: a prospective analysis.

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Millstein, S G

1996-09-01

The utility of the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB) for prospectively predicting physicians' delivery of preventive services was compared. Primary care physicians (N = 765) completed 2 mail surveys at periods 6 months apart. The addition of perceived behavioral control to the TRA model significantly increased the variance accounted for in behavioral intention and subsequent behavior (p behavioral control had direct effects on behavior and interacted with social norms and behavioral intentions. Applications of models such as the TRA or TPB have focused primarily on predicting the behavioral intentions and behaviors of patients. Results suggest that these models have relevance for studying the behavior of health care providers as well.

The contribution of a 9p21.3 variant, a KIF6 variant, and C-reactive protein to predicting risk of myocardial infarction in a prospective study

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Tracy Russell P

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic risk factors might improve prediction of coronary events. Several variants at chromosome 9p21.3 have been widely reported to be associated with coronary heart disease (CHD in prospective and case-control studies. A variant of KIF6 (719Arg has also been reported to be associated with increased risk of CHD in large prospective studies, but not in case-control studies. We asked whether the addition of genetic information (the 9p21.3 or KIF6 variants or a well-established non-genetic risk factor (C-reactive protein [CRP] can improve risk prediction by the Framingham Risk Score (FRS in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS--a prospective observational study of risk factors for cardiovascular disease among > 5,000 participants aged 65 or older. Methods Improvement of risk prediction was assessed by change in the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC and by net reclassification improvement (NRI. Results Among white participants the FRS was improved by addition of KIF6 719Arg carrier status among men as assessed by the AUC (from 0.581 to 0.596, P = 0.03 but not by NRI (NRI = 0.027, P = 0.32. Adding both CRP and 719Arg carrier status to the FRS improved risk prediction by the AUC (0.608, P = 0.02 and NRI (0.093, P = 0.008 in men, but not women (P ≥ 0.24. Conclusions While none of these risk markers individually or in combination improved risk prediction among women, a combination of KIF6 719Arg carrier status and CRP levels modestly improved risk prediction among white men; although this improvement is not significant after multiple-testing correction. These observations should be investigated in other prospective studies.

Hunger and thirst numeric rating scales are not valid estimates for gastric content volumes: a prospective investigation in healthy children.

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Buehrer, Sabin; Hanke, Ursula; Klaghofer, Richard; Fruehauf, Melanie; Weiss, Markus; Schmitz, Achim

2014-03-01

A rating scale for thirst and hunger was evaluated as a noninvasive, simple and commonly available tool to estimate preanesthetic gastric volume, a surrogate parameter for the risk of perioperative pulmonary aspiration, in healthy volunteer school age children. Numeric scales with scores from 0 to 10 combined with smileys to rate thirst and hunger were analyzed and compared with residual gastric volumes as measured by magnetic resonance imaging and fasting times in three settings: before and for 2 h after drinking clear fluid (group A, 7 ml/kg), before and for 4 vs 6 h after a light breakfast followed by clear fluid (7 ml/kg) after 2 vs 4 h (crossover, group B), and before and for 1 h after drinking clear fluid (crossover, group C, 7 vs 3 ml/kg). In 30 children aged 6.4-12.8 (median 9.8) years, participating on 1-5 (median two) study days, 496 sets of scores and gastric volumes were determined. Large inter- and intra-individual variations were seen at baseline and in response to fluid and food intake. Significant correlations were found between hunger and thirst ratings in all groups, with children generally being more hungry than thirsty. Correlations between scores and duration of fasting or gastric residual volumes were poor to moderate. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that thirst and hunger rating scales cannot predict gastric content. Hunger and thirst scores vary considerably inter- and intra-individually and cannot predict gastric volume, nor do they correlate with fasting times in school age children. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cervical Vertebral Body's Volume as a New Parameter for Predicting the Skeletal Maturation Stages.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Youn-Kyung; Kim, Jinmi; Yamaguchi, Tetsutaro; Maki, Koutaro; Ko, Ching-Chang; Kim, Yong-Il

2016-01-01

This study aimed to determine the correlation between the volumetric parameters derived from the images of the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae by using cone beam computed tomography with skeletal maturation stages and to propose a new formula for predicting skeletal maturation by using regression analysis. We obtained the estimation of skeletal maturation levels from hand-wrist radiographs and volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae bodies from 102 Japanese patients (54 women and 48 men, 5-18 years of age). We performed Pearson's correlation coefficient analysis and simple regression analysis. All volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae exhibited statistically significant correlations (P cervical-vertebra volume as an independent variable with a variance inflation factor less than ten. The explanation power was 81.76%. Volumetric parameters of cervical vertebrae using cone beam computed tomography are useful in regression models. The derived regression model has the potential for clinical application as it enables a simple and quantitative analysis to evaluate skeletal maturation level.

A Multi-Center Prospective Study to Validate an Algorithm Using Urine and Plasma Biomarkers for Predicting Gleason ≥3+4 Prostate Cancer on Biopsy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Albitar, Maher; Ma, Wanlong; Lund, Lars

2017-01-01

a prospective multicenter study recruiting patients from community-based practices. Patients and Methods: Urine and plasma samples from 2528 men were tested prospectively. Results were correlated with biopsy findings, if a biopsy was performed as deemed necessary by the practicing urologist. Of the 2528......Background: Unnecessary biopsies and overdiagnosis of prostate cancer (PCa) remain a serious healthcare problem. We have previously shown that urine- and plasma-based prostate-specific biomarkers when combined can predict high grade prostate cancer (PCa). To further validate this test, we performed...... of high grade prostate cancer with negative predictive value (NPV) of 90% to 97% for Gleason ≥3+4 and between 98% to 99% for Gleason ≥4+3....

Organ localization: Toward prospective patient-specific organ dosimetry in computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Segars, W. P.; Rybicki, K.; Norris, Hannah; Samei, E.; Frush, D.

2014-01-01

Purpose: With increased focus on radiation dose from medical imaging, prospective radiation dose estimates are becoming increasingly desired. Using available populations of adult and pediatric patient phantoms, radiation dose calculations can be catalogued and prospectively applied to individual patients that best match certain anatomical characteristics. In doing so, the knowledge of organ size and location is a required element. Here, the authors develop a predictive model of organ locations and volumes based on an analysis of adult and pediatric computed tomography (CT) data. Methods: Fifty eight adult and 69 pediatric CT datasets were segmented and utilized in the study. The maximum and minimum points of the organs were recorded with respect to the axial distance from the tip of the sacrum. The axial width, midpoint, and volume of each organ were calculated. Linear correlations between these three organ parameters and patient age, BMI, weight, and height were determined. Results: No statistically significant correlations were found in adult patients between the axial width, midpoint, and volume of the organs versus the patient age or BMI. Slight, positive linear trends were found for organ midpoint versus patient weight (max r 2 = 0.382, mean r 2 = 0.236). Similar trends were found for organ midpoint versus height (max r 2 = 0.439, mean r 2 = 0.200) and for organ volume versus height (max r 2 = 0.410, mean r 2 = 0.153). Gaussian fits performed on probability density functions of the adult organs resulted in r 2 -values ranging from 0.96 to 0.996. The pediatric patients showed much stronger correlations overall. Strong correlations were observed between organ axial midpoint versus age, height, and weight (max r 2 = 0.842, mean r 2 = 0.790; max r 2 = 0.949, mean r 2 = 0.894; and max r 2 = 0.870, mean r 2 = 0.847, respectively). Moderate linear correlations were also observed for organ axial width versus height (max r 2 = 0.772, mean r 2 = 0.562) and for organ

Utility of Volume Assessment Using Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis in Critically Ill Patients Receiving Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy: A Prospective Observational Study

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Ki Hyun Park

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Background Fluid overload prior to continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT is an important prognostic factor. Thus, precise evaluation of fluid status is necessary to treat such patients. In this study, we investigated whether fluid assessment using bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA can predict outcomes in critically ill patients requiring CRRT. Methods A prospective observational study was performed in patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit and who required CRRT. BIA was conducted before CRRT; then, the ratio of extracellular water to total body water (ECW/TBW was derived to estimate volume status. Results A total of 31 patients treated with CRRT were included. There were 18 men (58.1%, and the median age was 67 years (interquartile range, 51 to 78 years. Fourteen patients (45.2% died within 28 days after CRRT initiation. Patients were divided into 16 with ECW/TBW ≥0.41 and 15 with ECW/TBW <0.41. Survival rate within 28 days was different between the two groups (P = 0.044. Cox regression analysis revealed a relationship between ECW/TBW ≥0.41 and 28-day mortality, but it was not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 0.9 to 9.8; P = 0.061. Lastly, the area under the curve of ECW/TBW for 28-day mortality was analyzed. The area under the curve of ECW/TBW was 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.54 to 0.92, and this was significant (P = 0.037. Conclusions Fluid status can be assessed using BIA in critically ill patients requiring CRRT, and BIA can predict mortality. Further large trials are needed to confirm the usefulness of BIA in critically ill patients.

Characterization of Mixtures. Part 2: QSPR Models for Prediction of Excess Molar Volume and Liquid Density Using Neural Networks.

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Ajmani, Subhash; Rogers, Stephen C; Barley, Mark H; Burgess, Andrew N; Livingstone, David J

2010-09-17

In our earlier work, we have demonstrated that it is possible to characterize binary mixtures using single component descriptors by applying various mixing rules. We also showed that these methods were successful in building predictive QSPR models to study various mixture properties of interest. Here in, we developed a QSPR model of an excess thermodynamic property of binary mixtures i.e. excess molar volume (V(E) ). In the present study, we use a set of mixture descriptors which we earlier designed to specifically account for intermolecular interactions between the components of a mixture and applied successfully to the prediction of infinite-dilution activity coefficients using neural networks (part 1 of this series). We obtain a significant QSPR model for the prediction of excess molar volume (V(E) ) using consensus neural networks and five mixture descriptors. We find that hydrogen bond and thermodynamic descriptors are the most important in determining excess molar volume (V(E) ), which is in line with the theory of intermolecular forces governing excess mixture properties. The results also suggest that the mixture descriptors utilized herein may be sufficient to model a wide variety of properties of binary and possibly even more complex mixtures. Copyright © 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Predicted costs of environmental controls for a commercial oil shale industry. Volume 1. An engineering analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nevens, T.D.; Culbertson, W.J. Jr.; Wallace, J.R.; Taylor, G.C.; Jovanovich, A.P.; Prien, C.H.; Hicks, R.E.; Probstein, R.F.; Domahidy, G.

1979-07-01

The pollution control costs for a commercial oil shale industry were determined in a joint effort by Denver Research Institute, Water Purification Associates of Cambridge, and Stone and Webster Engineering of Boston and Denver. Four commercial oil shale processes were considered. The results in terms of cost per barrel of syncrude oil are predicted to be as follows: Paraho Process, $0.67 to $1.01; TOSCO II Process, $1.43 to $1.91; MIS Process, $2.02 to $3.03; and MIS/Lurgi-Ruhrgas Process, $1.68 to $2.43. Alternative pollution control equipment and integrated pollution control strategies were considered and optimal systems selected for each full-scale plant. A detailed inventory of equipment (along with the rationale for selection), a detailed description of control strategies, itemized costs and predicted emission levels are presented for each process. Capital and operating cost data are converted to a cost per barrel basis using detailed economic evaluation procedures. Ranges of cost are determined using a subjective self-assessment of uncertainty approach. An accepted methodology for probability encoding was used, and cost ranges are presented as subjective probability distributions. Volume I presents the detailed engineering results. Volume II presents the detailed analysis of uncertainty in the predicted costs.

Study of optimal exposure windows using 320-Detector rows dynamic volume CT

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Gang Sun

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Gang Sun1, Min Li1, Li Li1, Guo-ying Li1, Zhi-wei Jing21Departments of Medical Imaging, 2Medical Statistics, Jinan Military General Hospital, Shandong Province, ChinaAbstract: The purpose of this study was to determine the optimal electrocardiographic (ECG pulsing windows and evaluate the effect on reduced dose and accuracy using 320-detector rows dynamic volume computed tomography (DVCT. A total of 170 patients were prospectively studied. The optimal reconstruction windows were analyzed in 76 patients scanned using retrospective ECG gating. Forty-seven patients were scanned by the predicted triggering windows. The optimal positions of exposure intervals according to different heart rates were evaluated. Optimal image quality, radiation dose, and diagnostic accuracy were then investigated by applying optimal triggering windows. The optimal ECG pulsing windows were determined as follows: when heart rate was <70 beats per minute, the exposure windows should be preset at 60%–80%; for a heart rate 70–90 beats per minute at 70%–90%; and for a heart rate ≥90 beats per minute at 30%–50%. The radiation dose for patients scanned with prospective ECG gating was significantly lower (5.9 versus 12.9 mSv, P < 0.001. However, because two or three heart beats were needed when heart rate was >70 beats per minute, the radiation dose increased with increasing heart rate for both retrospective and prospective ECG gating (r = 0.64, P < 0.001 and r = 0.59, P < 0.001, respectively. On the basis of a per segment analysis, overall sensitivity was 98.0% (49/50, specificity was 99.2% (602/607, the positive predictive value was 90.7% (49/54, and the negative predictive value was 99.8% (602/603. In conclusion, DVCT has the potential to provide high image quality across a wide range of heart rates using an optimized ECG pulsing window. However, it is recommended to control heart rate below 70 beats per minute, if possible, to decrease the radiation dose

Appraisal in a Team Context: Perceptions of Cohesion Predict Competition Importance and Prospects for Coping.

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Wolf, Svenja A; Eys, Mark A; Sadler, Pamela; Kleinert, Jens

2015-10-01

Athletes' precompetitive appraisal is important because it determines emotions, which may impact performance. When part of a team, athletes make their appraisal within a social context, and in this study we examined whether perceived team cohesion, as a characteristic of this context, related to appraisal. We asked 386 male and female intercollegiate team-sport athletes to respond to measures of cohesion and precompetitive appraisal before an in-season game. For males and females, across all teams, (a) an appraisal of increased competition importance was predicted by perceptions of higher task cohesion (individual level), better previous team performance, and a weaker opponent (team level) and (b) an appraisal of more positive prospects for coping with competitive demands was predicted by higher individual attractions to the group (individual level). Consequently, athletes who perceive their team as more cohesive likely appraise the pending competition as a challenge, which would benefit both emotions and performance.

Prehospital tidal volume influences hospital tidal volume: A cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoltze, Andrew J; Wong, Terrence S; Harland, Karisa K; Ahmed, Azeemuddin; Fuller, Brian M; Mohr, Nicholas M

2015-06-01

The purposes of the study are to describe current practice of ventilation in a modern air medical system and to measure the association of ventilation strategy with subsequent ventilator care and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Retrospective observational cohort study of intubated adult patients (n = 235) transported by a university-affiliated air medical transport service to a 711-bed tertiary academic center between July 2011 and May 2013. Low tidal volume ventilation was defined as tidal volumes less than or equal to 8 mL/kg predicted body weight. Multivariable regression was used to measure the association between prehospital tidal volume, hospital ventilation strategy, and ARDS. Most patients (57%) were ventilated solely with bag valve ventilation during transport. Mean tidal volume of mechanically ventilated patients was 8.6 mL/kg predicted body weight (SD, 0.2 mL/kg). Low tidal volume ventilation was used in 13% of patients. Patients receiving low tidal volume ventilation during air medical transport were more likely to receive low tidal volume ventilation in the emergency department (P tidal volume (P = .840). Low tidal volume ventilation was rare during air medical transport. Air transport ventilation strategy influenced subsequent ventilation but was not associated with ARDS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early changes of parotid density and volume predict modifications at the end of therapy and intensity of acute xerostomia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Belli, Maria Luisa; Broggi, Sara [Ospedale San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Medical Physics, Milano (Italy); Scalco, Elisa; Rizzo, Giovanna [CNR, Istituto di Bioimmagini e Fisiologia Molecolare, Milano (Italy); Sanguineti, Giuseppe [Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Department of Radiation Oncology, Rome (Italy); Fiorino, Claudio; Cattaneo, Giovanni Mauro [Ospedale San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Medical Physics, Milano (Italy); CNR, Istituto di Bioimmagini e Fisiologia Molecolare, Milano (Italy); Dinapoli, Nicola; Valentini, Vincenzo [Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Radiotherapy, Rome (Italy); Ricchetti, Francesco [Ospedale Sacro Cuore, Radiotherapy, Negrar (Italy)

2014-11-15

To quantitatively assess the predictive power of early variations of parotid gland volume and density on final changes at the end of therapy and, possibly, on acute xerostomia during IMRT for head-neck cancer. Data of 92 parotids (46 patients) were available. Kinetics of the changes during treatment were described by the daily rate of density (rΔρ) and volume (rΔvol) variation based on weekly diagnostic kVCT images. Correlation between early and final changes was investigated as well as the correlation with prospective toxicity data (CTCAEv3.0) collected weekly during treatment for 24/46 patients. A higher rΔρ was observed during the first compared to last week of treatment (-0,50 vs -0,05HU, p-value = 0.0001). Based on early variations, a good estimation of the final changes may be obtained (Δρ: AUC = 0.82, p = 0.0001; Δvol: AUC = 0.77, p = 0.0001). Both early rΔρ and rΔvol predict a higher ''mean'' acute xerostomia score (≥ median value, 1.57; p-value = 0.01). Median early density rate changes for patients with mean xerostomia score ≥ / < 1.57 were -0.98 vs -0.22 HU/day respectively (p = 0.05). Early density and volume variations accurately predict final changes of parotid glands. A higher longitudinally assessed score of acute xerostomia is well predicted by higher rΔρ and rΔvol in the first two weeks of treatment: best cut-off values were -0.50 HU/day and -380 mm{sup 3}/day for rΔρ and rΔvol respectively. Further studies are necessary to definitively assess the potential of early density/volume changes in identifying more sensitive patients at higher risk of experiencing xerostomia. (orig.) [German] Ziel der Studie ist die Untersuchung der praediktiven Aussagekraft von fruehen Veraenderungen in Volumen und Dichte der Ohrspeicheldruese in Bezug auf die finale Verformung zum Ende der Therapie sowie das Risiko von Xerostomie waehrend der intesitaetsmodulierten Strahlentherapie (IMRT) bei Kopf und Hals Tumoren. Die Studie

Health values and prospect theory: a comment.

Science.gov (United States)

Stratmann-Schoene, D; Klose, T

2001-01-01

In a recent volume of Medical Decision Making, Treadwell and Lenert stated that under prospect theory, community members compared with patients underestimate the utility of health improvements. In this comment, the authors show that this statement holds only for a subset of possible preference functions. Furthermore, the authors provide arguments that, in general, the rater's current health state is not the appropriate reference level if applying prospect theory to health valuations.

Cervical Vertebral Body's Volume as a New Parameter for Predicting the Skeletal Maturation Stages

OpenAIRE

Choi, Youn-Kyung; Kim, Jinmi; Yamaguchi, Tetsutaro; Maki, Koutaro; Ko, Ching-Chang; Kim, Yong-Il

2016-01-01

This study aimed to determine the correlation between the volumetric parameters derived from the images of the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae by using cone beam computed tomography with skeletal maturation stages and to propose a new formula for predicting skeletal maturation by using regression analysis. We obtained the estimation of skeletal maturation levels from hand-wrist radiographs and volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae bodies ...

Prediction of Packed Cell Volume after Whole Blood Transfusion in Small Ruminants and South American Camelids: 80 Cases (2006–2016)

OpenAIRE

Luethy, D.; Stefanovski, D.; Salber, R.; Sweeney, R.W.

2017-01-01

Background Calculation of desired whole blood transfusion volume relies on an estimate of an animal's circulating blood volume, generally accepted to be 0.08 L/kg or 8% of the animal's body weight in kilograms. Objective To use packed cell volume before and after whole blood transfusion to evaluate the accuracy of a commonly used equation to predict packed cell volume after transfusion in small ruminants and South American camelids; to determine the nature and frequency of adverse transfusion...

Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

2014-05-01

Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

Prediction of immediate postoperative pain using the analgesia/nociception index: a prospective observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Boselli, E; Bouvet, L; Bégou, G; Dabouz, R; Davidson, J; Deloste, J-Y; Rahali, N; Zadam, A; Allaouchiche, B

2014-04-01

The analgesia/nociception index (ANI) is derived from heart rate variability, ranging from 0 (maximal nociception) to 100 (maximal analgesia), to reflect the analgesia/nociception balance during general anaesthesia. This should be correlated with immediate postoperative pain in the post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of ANI measured at arousal from general anaesthesia to predict immediate postoperative pain on arrival in PACU. Two hundred patients undergoing ear, nose, and throat or lower limb orthopaedic surgery with general anaesthesia using an inhalational agent and remifentanil were included in this prospective observational study. The ANI was measured immediately before tracheal extubation and pain intensity was assessed within 10 min of arrival in PACU using a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). The relationship between ANI and NRS was assessed using linear regression. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the performance of ANI to predict NRS>3. A negative linear relationship was observed between ANI immediately before extubation and NRS on arrival in PACU. Using a threshold of 3 were both 86% with 92% negative predictive value, corresponding to an area under the ROC curve of 0.89. The measurement of ANI immediately before extubation after inhalation-remifentanil anaesthesia was significantly associated with pain intensity on arrival in PACU. The performance of ANI for the prediction of immediate postoperative pain is good and may assist physicians in optimizing acute pain management. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01796249.

Stressful Life Events Predict Eating Disorder Relapse Following Remission: Six-Year Prospective Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Grilo, Carlos M.; Pagano, Maria E.; Stout, Robert L.; Markowitz, John C.; Ansell, Emily B.; Pinto, Anthony; Zanarini, Mary C.; Yen, Shirley; Skodol, Andrew E.

2012-01-01

Objective To examine prospectively the natural course of bulimia nervosa (BN) and eating disorder not-otherwise-specified (EDNOS) and test for the effects of stressful life events (SLE) on relapse after remission from these eating disorders. Method 117 female patients with BN (N = 35) or EDNOS (N = 82) were prospectively followed for 72 months using structured interviews performed at baseline, 6- and 12-months, and then yearly thereafter. ED were assessed with the structured clinical interview for DSM-IV, and monitored over time with the longitudinal interval follow-up evaluation. Personality disorders were assessed with the diagnostic interview for DSM-IV-personality-disorders, and monitored over time with the follow-along-version. The occurrence and specific timing of SLE were assessed with the life events assessment interview. Cox proportional-hazard-regression-analyses tested associations between time-varying levels of SLE and ED relapse, controlling for comorbid psychiatric disorders, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status. Results ED relapse probability was 43%; BN and EDNOS did not differ in time to relapse. Negative SLE significantly predicted ED relapse; elevated work and social stressors were significant predictors. Psychiatric comorbidity, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status were not significant predictors. Discussion Higher work and social stress represent significant warning signs for triggering relapse for women with remitted BN and EDNOS. PMID:21448971

Prospective validation of a predictive model that identifies homeless people at risk of re-presentation to the emergency department.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Gaye; Hepworth, Graham; Weiland, Tracey; Manias, Elizabeth; Gerdtz, Marie Frances; Kelaher, Margaret; Dunt, David

2012-02-01

To prospectively evaluate the accuracy of a predictive model to identify homeless people at risk of representation to an emergency department. A prospective cohort analysis utilised one month of data from a Principal Referral Hospital in Melbourne, Australia. All visits involving people classified as homeless were included, excluding those who died. Homelessness was defined as living on the streets, in crisis accommodation, in boarding houses or residing in unstable housing. Rates of re-presentation, defined as the total number of visits to the same emergency department within 28 days of discharge from hospital, were measured. Performance of the risk screening tool was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and likelihood ratios. Over the study period (April 1, 2009 to April 30, 2009), 3298 presentations from 2888 individuals were recorded. The homeless population accounted for 10% (n=327) of all visits and 7% (n=211) of all patients. A total of 90 (43%) homeless people re-presented to the emergency department. The predictive model included nine variables and achieved 98% (CI, 0.92-0.99) sensitivity and 66% (CI, 0.57-0.74) specificity. The positive predictive value was 68% and the negative predictive value was 98%. The positive likelihood ratio 2.9 (CI, 2.2-3.7) and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.03 (CI, 0.01-0.13). The high emergency department re-presentation rate for people who were homeless identifies unresolved psychosocial health needs. The emergency department remains a vital access point for homeless people, particularly after hours. The risk screening tool is key to identify medical and social aspects of a homeless patient's presentation to assist early identification and referral. Copyright © 2012 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Major depressive episodes over the course of 7 years and hippocampal subfield volumes at 7 tesla MRI: the PREDICT-MR study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wisse, L E M; Biessels, G J; Stegenga, B T; Kooistra, M; van der Veen, P H; Zwanenburg, J J M; van der Graaf, Y; Geerlings, M I

2015-04-01

Smaller hippocampal volumes have been associated with major depressive disorder (MDD). The hippocampus consists of several subfields that may be differentially related to MDD. We investigated the association of occurrence of major depressive episodes (MDEs), assessed five times over seven years, with hippocampal subfield and entorhinal cortex volumes at 7 tesla MRI. In this prospective study of randomly selected general practice attendees, MDEs according to DSM-IV-R criteria were assessed at baseline and after 6, 12, 39 and 84 months follow-up. At the last follow-up, a T2 (0.7 mm(3)) 7 tesla MRI scan was obtained in 47 participants (60±10 years). The subiculum, cornu ammonis (CA) 1 to 3, dentate gyrus&CA4 and entorhinal cortex volumes were manually segmented according a published protocol. Of the 47 participants, 13 had one MDE and 5 had multiple MDEs. ANCOVAs, adjusted for age, sex, education and intracranial volume, revealed no significant differences in hippocampal subfield or entorhinal cortex volumes between participants with and without an MDE in the preceding 84 months. Multiple episodes were associated with smaller subiculum volumes (B=-0.03 mL/episode; 95% CI -0.06; -0.003), but not with the other hippocampal subfield volumes, entorhinal cortex, or total hippocampal volume. A limitation of this study is the small sample size which makes replication necessary. In this exploratory study, we found that an increasing number of major depressive episodes was associated with smaller subiculum volumes in middle-aged and older persons, but not with smaller volumes in other hippocampal subfields or the entorhinal cortex. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ERic Acute StrokE Recanalization: A study using predictive analytics to assess a new device for mechanical thrombectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Siemonsen, Susanne; Forkert, Nils D; Bernhardt, Martina; Thomalla, Götz; Bendszus, Martin; Fiehler, Jens

2017-08-01

Aim and hypothesis Using a new study design, we investigate whether next-generation mechanical thrombectomy devices improve clinical outcomes in ischemic stroke patients. We hypothesize that this new methodology is superior to intravenous tissue plasminogen activator therapy alone. Methods and design ERic Acute StrokE Recanalization is an investigator-initiated prospective single-arm, multicenter, controlled, open label study to compare the safety and effectiveness of a new recanalization device and distal access catheter in acute ischemic stroke patients with symptoms attributable to acute ischemic stroke and vessel occlusion of the internal cerebral artery or middle cerebral artery. Study outcome The primary effectiveness endpoint is the volume of saved tissue. Volume of saved tissue is defined as difference of the actual infarct volume and the brain volume that is predicted to develop infarction by using an optimized high-level machine learning model that is trained on data from a historical cohort treated with IV tissue plasminogen activator. Sample size estimates Based on own preliminary data, 45 patients fulfilling all inclusion criteria need to complete the study to show an efficacy >38% with a power of 80% and a one-sided alpha error risk of 0.05 (based on a one sample t-test). Discussion ERic Acute StrokE Recanalization is the first prospective study in interventional stroke therapy to use predictive analytics as primary and secondary endpoint. Such trial design cannot replace randomized controlled trials with clinical endpoints. However, ERic Acute StrokE Recanalization could serve as an exemplary trial design for evaluating nonpivotal neurovascular interventions.

Do race, neglect, and childhood poverty predict physical health in adulthood? A multilevel prospective analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Nikulina, Valentina; Widom, Cathy Spatz

2014-03-01

Childhood neglect and poverty often co-occur and both have been linked to poor physical health outcomes. In addition, Blacks have higher rates of childhood poverty and tend to have worse health than Whites. This paper examines the unique and interacting effects of childhood neglect, race, and family and neighborhood poverty on adult physical health outcomes. This prospective cohort design study uses a sample (N=675) of court-substantiated cases of childhood neglect and matched controls followed into adulthood (M(age)=41). Health indicators (C-Reactive Protein [CRP], hypertension, and pulmonary functioning) were assessed through blood collection and measurements by a registered nurse. Data were analyzed using hierarchical linear models to control for clustering of participants in childhood neighborhoods. Main effects showed that growing up Black predicted CRP and hypertension elevations, despite controlling for neglect and childhood family and neighborhood poverty and their interactions. Multivariate results showed that race and childhood adversities interacted to predict adult health outcomes. Childhood family poverty predicted increased risk for hypertension for Blacks, not Whites. In contrast, among Whites, childhood neglect predicted elevated CRP. Childhood neighborhood poverty interacted with childhood family poverty to predict pulmonary functioning in adulthood. Gender differences in health indicators were also observed. The effects of childhood neglect, childhood poverty, and growing up Black in the United States are manifest in physical health outcomes assessed 30 years later. Implications are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospective longitudinal MRI study of brain volumes and diffusion changes during the first year after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veronika Brezova

2014-01-01

Higher ADC values were detected in the cortex in individuals with severe TBI, DAI and PTA > 2 weeks, from 3 months. There were no associations between ADC values and brain volumes, and ADC values did not predict outcome.

Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Bo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

Can radiological changes in lymph node volume during treatment predict success of radiation therapy in patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Sanju; Hammond, Alexander; Read, Nancy; Venkatesan, Varagur; Warner, Andrew; Winquist, Eric; Nichols, Anthony

2013-01-01

Assessment of nodal response after radiotherapy (RT) for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma is difficult, as both CT and positron emission tomography scanning have limited predictive value for residual disease. We sought to measure changes in nodal volume during RT to determine whether such changes are predictive of nodal disease control. Patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with 70Gy of radical RT (±chemotherapy or anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibodies) were eligible. Baseline pre-RT scans and cone-beam CT scans done at the outset of treatment and at weeks 3, 5 and 7 (cone-beam CTs 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively) were deformably coregistered, and 3D nodal volumes were measured. Thirty-eight eligible patients were identified. The main primary tumour site was oropharyngeal; most patients had stage IVa disease. Twenty-seven patients received concurrent platinum-based chemotherapy, 10 received only an EGFR inhibitor with RT and one received RT alone. Twelve patients had a failure in the neck. After week 1 of treatment, a 4% mean decrease in nodal volume was observed, increasing to 40% at week 7. Platinum-based chemotherapy achieved significantly greater decreases in nodal volume than EGFR inhibitors (44 vs. 25%; P=0.026). Advanced tumour stage predicted neck failure (P=0.002), but nodal volumes did not correlate with neck control. Changes in nodal volume are minimal initially during RT but accelerate during the latter weeks of therapy. This study suggests that chemotherapy achieves a greater decrease in nodal volume than EGFR inhibitors and that nodal changes do not predict disease control in the neck.

Past, present and prospect of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based model for sediment transport prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin; El-shafie, Ahmed; Mohtar, Wan Hanna Melini Wan; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher

2016-10-01

An accurate model for sediment prediction is a priority for all hydrological researchers. Many conventional methods have shown an inability to achieve an accurate prediction of suspended sediment. These methods are unable to understand the behaviour of sediment transport in rivers due to the complexity, noise, non-stationarity, and dynamism of the sediment pattern. In the past two decades, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and computational approaches have become a remarkable tool for developing an accurate model. These approaches are considered a powerful tool for solving any non-linear model, as they can deal easily with a large number of data and sophisticated models. This paper is a review of all AI approaches that have been applied in sediment modelling. The current research focuses on the development of AI application in sediment transport. In addition, the review identifies major challenges and opportunities for prospective research. Throughout the literature, complementary models superior to classical modelling.

A comparison of volume control and pressure-regulated volume control ventilation in acute respiratory failure

OpenAIRE

Guldager, Henrik; Nielsen, Soeren L; Carl, Peder; Soerensen, Mogens B

1997-01-01

Background: The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that a new mode of ventilation (pressure-regulated volume control; PRVC) is associated with improvements in respiratory mechanics and outcome when compared with conventional volume control (VC) ventilation in patients with acute respiratory failure. We conducted a randomised, prospective, open, cross over trial on 44 patients with acute respiratory failure in the general intensive care unit of a university hospital. After a stabiliz...

Risk factors of exocrine and endocrine pancreatic insufficiency after pancreatic resection: A multi-center prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Maignan, A; Ouaïssi, M; Turrini, O; Regenet, N; Loundou, A; Louis, G; Moutardier, V; Dahan, L; Pirrò, N; Sastre, B; Delpero, J-R; Sielezneff, I

2018-01-26

Management of functional consequences after pancreatic resection has become a new therapeutic challenge. The goal of our study is to evaluate the risk factors for exocrine (ExoPI) and endocrine (EndoPI) pancreatic insufficiency after pancreatic surgery and to establish a predictive model for their onset. Between January 1, 2014 and June 19, 2015, 91 consecutive patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) or left pancreatectomy (LP) (72% and 28%, respectively) were followed prospectively. ExoPI was defined as fecal elastase content126mg/dL or aggravation of preexisting diabetes. The volume of residual pancreas was measured according to the same principles as liver volumetry. The ExoPI and EndoPI rates at 6 months were 75.9% and 30.8%, respectively. The rate of ExoPI after PD was statistically significantly higher than after LP (98% vs. 21%; Ppancreatic volume less than 39.5% was predictive of ExoPI. ExoPI occurs quasi-systematically after PD irrespective of the reconstruction scheme. The rate of EndoPI did not differ between PD and LP. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Estimation of standard liver volume in Chinese adult living donors.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu-Gui, L; Lu-Nan, Y; Bo, L; Yong, Z; Tian-Fu, W; Ming-Qing, X; Wen-Tao, W; Zhe-Yu, C

2009-12-01

To determine a formula predicting the standard liver volume based on body surface area (BSA) or body weight in Chinese adults. A total of 115 consecutive right-lobe living donors not including the middle hepatic vein underwent right hemi-hepatectomy. No organs were used from prisoners, and no subjects were prisoners. Donor anthropometric data including age, gender, body weight, and body height were recorded prospectively. The weights and volumes of the right lobe liver grafts were measured at the back table. Liver weights and volumes were calculated from the right lobe graft weight and volume obtained at the back table, divided by the proportion of the right lobe on computed tomography. By simple linear regression analysis and stepwise multiple linear regression analysis, we correlated calculated liver volume and body height, body weight, or body surface area. The subjects had a mean age of 35.97 +/- 9.6 years, and a female-to-male ratio of 60:55. The mean volume of the right lobe was 727.47 +/- 136.17 mL, occupying 55.59% +/- 6.70% of the whole liver by computed tomography. The volume of the right lobe was 581.73 +/- 96.137 mL, and the estimated liver volume was 1053.08 +/- 167.56 mL. Females of the same body weight showed a slightly lower liver weight. By simple linear regression analysis and stepwise multiple linear regression analysis, a formula was derived based on body weight. All formulae except the Hong Kong formula overestimated liver volume compared to this formula. The formula of standard liver volume, SLV (mL) = 11.508 x body weight (kg) + 334.024, may be applied to estimate liver volumes in Chinese adults.

Original and cumulative prospect theory: a discussion of empirical differences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Fennema, H.

1997-01-01

This note discusses differences between prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory. It shows that cumulative prospect theory is not merely a formal correction of some theoretical problems in prospect theory, but it also gives different predictions. Experiments are described that favor cumulative

Proton Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopic Imaging in Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma: Predictive Value for the Site of Postradiotherapy Relapse in a Prospective Longitudinal Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laprie, Anne; Catalaa, Isabelle; Cassol, Emmanuelle; McKnight, Tracy R.; Berchery, Delphine; Marre, Delphine; Bachaud, Jean-Marc; Berry, Isabelle; Moyal, Elizabeth Cohen-Jonathan

2008-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the association between magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI)-defined, metabolically abnormal tumor regions and subsequent sites of relapse in data from patients treated with radiotherapy (RT) in a prospective clinical trial. Methods and Materials: Twenty-three examinations were performed prospectively for 9 patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme studied in a Phase I trial combining Tipifarnib and RT. The patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and MRSI before treatment and every 2 months until relapse. The MRSI data were categorized by the choline (Cho)/N-acetyl-aspartate (NAA) ratio (CNR) as a measure of spectroscopic abnormality. CNRs corresponding to T1 and T2 MRI for 1,207 voxels were evaluated before RT and at recurrence. Results: Before treatment, areas of CNR2 (CNR ≥2) represented 25% of the contrast-enhancing (T1CE) regions and 10% of abnormal T2 regions outside T1CE (HyperT2). The presence of CNR2 was often an early indicator of the site of relapse after therapy. In fact, 75% of the voxels within the T1CE+CNR2 before therapy continued to exhibit CNR2 at relapse, compared with 22% of the voxels within the T1CE with normal CNR (p < 0.05). The location of new contrast enhancement with CNR2 corresponded in 80% of the initial HyperT2+CNR2 vs. 20.7% of the HyperT2 voxels with normal CNR (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Metabolically active regions represented a small percentage of pretreatment MRI abnormalities and were predictive for the site of post-RT relapse. The incorporation of MRSI data in the definition of RT target volumes for selective boosting may be a promising avenue leading to increased local control of glioblastomas

Relationship between Plasma D-Dimer Concentration and Three-Dimensional Ultrasound Placental Volume in Women at Risk for Placental Vascular Diseases: A Monocentric Prospective Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cécile Fanget

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to correlate placental volumes deduced from three-dimensional ultrasound and virtual organ computer-aided analysis (VOCAL software with systemic concentrations of D-dimer and soluble endothelial protein C receptor (sEPCR.This was a monocentric experimental prospective study conducted from October 2008 to July 2009. Forty consecutive patients at risk of placental vascular pathology (PVP recurrence or occurrence were included. Placental volumes were systematically measured three times (11-14, 16-18 and 20-22 weeks of gestation (WG by two independent sonographers. D-dimers and sEPCR plasma concentrations were measured using ELISA kits (Enzyme Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay.Eleven patients had a PVP. The plasma D-dimer level was positively correlated with placental volume (r = 0.45, p < 0.001. A smaller placental volume and placental quotient was evidenced in women who developed a PVP at the three gestational ages, and the difference was more pronounced during the third exam (20 WG. No obvious correlation could be demonstrated between the development of a PVP and the levels of D-dimer and sEPCR. There was no significant difference in the values of placental volumes measured by the two sonographers.The placenta growth could be a major determinant of the elevation of D-dimer during pregnancy. Consideration of placental volume could allow for modulation of the D-dimer concentrations for restoring their clinical interest.

Hippocampal Volume Reduction in Humans Predicts Impaired Allocentric Spatial Memory in Virtual-Reality Navigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Guderian, Sebastian; Dzieciol, Anna M; Gadian, David G; Jentschke, Sebastian; Doeller, Christian F; Burgess, Neil; Mishkin, Mortimer; Vargha-Khadem, Faraneh

2015-10-21

The extent to which navigational spatial memory depends on hippocampal integrity in humans is not well documented. We investigated allocentric spatial recall using a virtual environment in a group of patients with severe hippocampal damage (SHD), a group of patients with "moderate" hippocampal damage (MHD), and a normal control group. Through four learning blocks with feedback, participants learned the target locations of four different objects in a circular arena. Distal cues were present throughout the experiment to provide orientation. A circular boundary as well as an intra-arena landmark provided spatial reference frames. During a subsequent test phase, recall of all four objects was tested with only the boundary or the landmark being present. Patients with SHD were impaired in both phases of this task. Across groups, performance on both types of spatial recall was highly correlated with memory quotient (MQ), but not with intelligence quotient (IQ), age, or sex. However, both measures of spatial recall separated experimental groups beyond what would be expected based on MQ, a widely used measure of general memory function. Boundary-based and landmark-based spatial recall were both strongly related to bilateral hippocampal volumes, but not to volumes of the thalamus, putamen, pallidum, nucleus accumbens, or caudate nucleus. The results show that boundary-based and landmark-based allocentric spatial recall are similarly impaired in patients with SHD, that both types of recall are impaired beyond that predicted by MQ, and that recall deficits are best explained by a reduction in bilateral hippocampal volumes. In humans, bilateral hippocampal atrophy can lead to profound impairments in episodic memory. Across species, perhaps the most well-established contribution of the hippocampus to memory is not to episodic memory generally but to allocentric spatial memory. However, the extent to which navigational spatial memory depends on hippocampal integrity in humans is

The Data of Levy and Levy (2002) ÜProspect Theory: Much Ado About Nothing?Ý Actually Support Prospect Theory

OpenAIRE

Peter P. Wakker

2003-01-01

Levy and Levy (Management Science2002) present data that, according to their claims, violate prospect theory. They suggest that prospect theory's hypothesis of an S-shaped value function, concave for gains and convex for losses, is incorrect. However, all the data of Levy and Levy are perfectly consistent with the predictions of prospect theory, as can be verified by simply applying prospect theory formulas. The mistake of Levy and Levy is that they, incorrectly, thought that probability weig...

Subcortical intelligence: caudate volume predicts IQ in healthy adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Grazioplene, Rachael G; G Ryman, Sephira; Gray, Jeremy R; Rustichini, Aldo; Jung, Rex E; DeYoung, Colin G

2015-04-01

This study examined the association between size of the caudate nuclei and intelligence. Based on the central role of the caudate in learning, as well as neuroimaging studies linking greater caudate volume to better attentional function, verbal ability, and dopamine receptor availability, we hypothesized the existence of a positive association between intelligence and caudate volume in three large independent samples of healthy adults (total N = 517). Regression of IQ onto bilateral caudate volume controlling for age, sex, and total brain volume indicated a significant positive correlation between caudate volume and intelligence, with a comparable magnitude of effect across each of the three samples. No other subcortical structures were independently associated with IQ, suggesting a specific biological link between caudate morphology and intelligence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Freshman year alcohol and marijuana use prospectively predict time to college graduation and subsequent adult roles and independence.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilhite, Emily R; Ashenhurst, James R; Marino, Elise N; Fromme, Kim

2017-06-15

This study examined how freshman year substance use prospectively predicted time to college graduation, and whether delayed graduation predicted postponed adoption of adult roles and future substance use. Participants were part of a longitudinal study that began in 2004. The first analyses focused on freshman year (N = 2,050). The second analyses corresponded to a subset of participants at age 27 (N = 575). Measures included self-reported substance use, adult role adoption, and university reported graduation dates. Results indicated that frequent binge drinking and marijuana use during freshman year predicted delayed college graduation. Those who took longer to graduate were more likely to have lower incomes and were less likely to obtain a graduate degree. Taking 5-6 years to graduate was associated with greater likelihood of alcohol-related problems. Findings support the importance of interventions during freshman year of college to decrease substance use and promote timely graduation.

Age and total and free prostate-specific antigen levels for predicting prostate volume in patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Coban, Soner; Doluoglu, Omer Gokhan; Keles, Ibrahim; Demirci, Hakan; Turkoglu, Ali Riza; Guzelsoy, Muhammet; Karalar, Mustafa; Demirbas, Murat

2016-06-01

To investigate the predictive values of free prostate-specific antigen (fPSA), total PSA (tPSA) and age on the prostate volume. The data of 2148 patients with lower urinary tract symptoms were analyzed retrospectively. The patients who had transrectal ultrasonography guided 10 core biopsies owing to the findings obtained on digital rectal examination and presence of high PSA levels (PSA = 2.5-10 ng/dl), and proven to have BPH histopathologically were included in the study. Age, tPSA, fPSA and the prostate volumes (PV) of the patients were noted. One thousand patients that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in the study. The PV of the patients were significantly correlated with age, tPSA and fPSA (p < 0.001 and r = 0.307, p < 0.001 and r = 0.382, p < 0.001 and r = 0.296, respectively). On linear regression model, fPSA was found as a stronger predictive for PV (AUC = 0.75, p < 0.001) when compared to age (AUC = 0.64, p < 0.001), and tPSA (AUC = 0.69, p = 0.013). Although tPSA is an important prognostic factor for predicting PV, the predictive value of fPSA is higher. PV can easily be predicted by using age, and serum tPSA and fPSA levels.

Interaction of CD38 Variant and Chronic Interpersonal Stress Prospectively Predicts Social Anxiety and Depression Symptoms Over Six Years

Science.gov (United States)

Tabak, Benjamin A.; Vrshek-Schallhorn, Suzanne; Zinbarg, Richard E.; Prenoveau, Jason M.; Mineka, Susan; Redei, Eva E.; Adam, Emma K.; Craske, Michelle G.

2015-01-01

Variation in the CD38 gene, which regulates secretion of the neuropeptide oxytocin, has been associated with several social phenotypes. Specifically, rs3796863 A allele carriers have demonstrated increased social sensitivity. In 400 older adolescents, we used trait-state-occasion modeling to investigate how rs3796863 genotype, baseline ratings of chronic interpersonal stress, and their gene-environment (GxE) interaction predicted trait social anxiety and depression symptoms over six years. We found significant GxE effects for CD38 A-carrier genotypes and chronic interpersonal stress at baseline predicting greater social anxiety and depression symptoms. A significant GxE effect of smaller magnitude was also found for C/C genotype and chronic interpersonal stress predicting greater depression; however, this effect was small compared to the main effect of chronic interpersonal stress. Thus, in the context of chronic interpersonal stress, heightened social sensitivity associated with the rs3796863 A allele may prospectively predict risk for social anxiety and (to a lesser extent) depression. PMID:26958455

Stress sensitivity interacts with depression history to predict depressive symptoms among youth: prospective changes following first depression onset.

Science.gov (United States)

Technow, Jessica R; Hazel, Nicholas A; Abela, John R Z; Hankin, Benjamin L

2015-04-01

Predictors of depressive symptoms may differ before and after the first onset of major depression due to stress sensitization. Dependent stressors, or those to which characteristics of individuals contribute, have been shown to predict depressive symptoms in youth. The current study sought to clarify how stressors' roles may differ before and after the first depressive episode. Adolescents (N = 382, aged 11 to 15 at baseline) were assessed at baseline and every 3 months over the course of 2 years with measures of stressors and depressive symptoms. Semi-structured interviews were conducted every 6 months to assess for clinically significant depressive episodes. Hierarchical linear modeling showed a significant interaction between history of depression and idiographic fluctuations in dependent stressors to predict prospective elevations of symptoms, such that dependent stressors were more predictive of depressive symptoms after onset of disorder. Independent stressors predicted symptoms, but the strength of the association did not vary by depression history. These results suggest a synthesis of dependent stress and stress sensitization processes that might maintain inter-episode depressive symptoms among youth with a history of clinical depression.

Stress sensitivity interacts with depression history to predict depressive symptoms among youth: Prospective changes following first depression onset

Science.gov (United States)

Technow, Jessica R.; Hazel, Nicholas A.; Abela, John R. Z.; Hankin, Benjamin L.

2015-01-01

Predictors of depressive symptoms may differ before and after the first onset of major depression due to stress sensitization. Dependent stressors, or those to which characteristics of individuals contribute, have been shown to predict depressive symptoms in youth. The current study sought to clarify how stressors’ roles may differ before and after the first depressive episode. Adolescents (N = 382, aged 11 to 15 at baseline) were assessed at baseline and every three months over the course of two years with measures of stressors and depressive symptoms. Semi-structured interviews were conducted every 6 months to assess for clinically significant depressive episodes. Hierarchical linear modeling showed a significant interaction between history of depression and idiographic fluctuations in dependent stressors to predict prospective elevations of symptoms, such that dependent stressors were more predictive of depressive symptoms after onset of disorder. Independent stressors predicted symptoms, but the strength of the association did not vary by depression history. These results suggest a synthesis of stress sensitization and generation processes that might maintain inter-episode depressive symptoms among youth with a history of clinical depression. PMID:25123081

Prediction of infarction and reperfusion in stroke by flow- and volume-weighted collateral signal in MR angiography.

Science.gov (United States)

Ernst, M; Forkert, N D; Brehmer, L; Thomalla, G; Siemonsen, S; Fiehler, J; Kemmling, A

2015-02-01

In proximal anterior circulation occlusive strokes, collateral flow is essential for good outcome. Collateralized vessel intensity in TOF- and contrast-enhanced MRA is variable due to different acquisition methods. Our purpose was to quantify collateral supply by using flow-weighted signal in TOF-MRA and blood volume-weighted signal in contrast-enhanced MRA to determine each predictive contribution to tissue infarction and reperfusion. Consecutively (2009-2013), 44 stroke patients with acute proximal anterior circulation occlusion met the inclusion criteria with TOF- and contrast-enhanced MRA and penumbral imaging. Collateralized vessels in the ischemic hemisphere were assessed by TOF- and contrast-enhanced MRA using 2 methods: 1) visual 3-point collateral scoring, and 2) collateral signal quantification by an arterial atlas-based collateral index. Collateral measures were tested by receiver operating characteristic curve and logistic regression against 2 imaging end points of tissue-outcome: final infarct volume and percentage of penumbra saved. Visual collateral scores on contrast-enhanced MRA but not TOF were significantly higher in patients with good outcome. Visual collateral scoring on contrast-enhanced MRA was the best rater-based discriminator for final infarct volume 50% (area under the curve, 0.67; P = .04). Atlas-based collateral index of contrast-enhanced MRA was the overall best independent discriminator for final infarct volume of collateral index combining the signal of TOF- and contrast-enhanced MRA was the overall best discriminator for effective reperfusion (percentage of penumbra saved >50%; area under the curve, 0.89; P collateral assessment, TOF- and contrast-enhanced MRA both contain predictive signal information for penumbral reperfusion. This could improve risk stratification in further studies. © 2015 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Effectiveness of Cooperative Learning Instructional Tools With Predict-Observe-Explain Strategy on the Topic of Cuboid and Cube Volume

Science.gov (United States)

Nurhuda; Lukito, A.; Masriyah

2018-01-01

This study aims to develop instructional tools and implement it to see the effectiveness. The method used in this research referred to Designing Effective Instruction. Experimental research with two-group pretest-posttest design method was conducted. The instructional tools have been developed is cooperative learning model with predict-observe-explain strategy on the topic of cuboid and cube volume which consist of lesson plans, POE tasks, and Tests. Instructional tools were of good quality by criteria of validity, practicality, and effectiveness. These instructional tools was very effective for teaching the volume of cuboid and cube. Cooperative instructional tool with predict-observe-explain (POE) strategy was good of quality because the teacher was easy to implement the steps of learning, students easy to understand the material and students’ learning outcomes completed classically. Learning by using this instructional tool was effective because learning activities were appropriate and students were very active. Students’ learning outcomes were completed classically and better than conventional learning. This study produced a good instructional tool and effectively used in learning. Therefore, these instructional tools can be used as an alternative to teach volume of cuboid and cube topics.

A modified free-volume-based model for predicting vapor-liquid and solid-liquid equilibria for size asymmetric systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Radfarnia, H.R.; Ghotbi, C.; Taghikhani, V.

2005-01-01

The main purpose of this work is to present a free-volume combinatorial term in predicting vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE) and solid-liquid equilibrium (SLE) of polymer/solvent and light and heavy hydrocarbon/hydrocarbon mixtures. The proposed term is based on a modification of the original Freed ...

Volume of high-risk intratumoral subregions at multi-parametric MR imaging predicts overall survival and complements molecular analysis of glioblastoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cui, Yi; Li, Ruijiang [Stanford University, Department of Radiation Oncology, Palo Alto, CA (United States); Hokkaido University, Global Station for Quantum Medical Science and Engineering, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education, Hokkaido (Japan); Ren, Shangjie [Tianjin University, School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin Shi (China); Tha, Khin Khin; Shirato, Hiroki [Hokkaido University, Global Station for Quantum Medical Science and Engineering, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education, Hokkaido (Japan); Hokkaido University, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Hokkaido (Japan); Wu, Jia [Stanford University, Department of Radiation Oncology, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

2017-09-15

To develop and validate a volume-based, quantitative imaging marker by integrating multi-parametric MR images for predicting glioblastoma survival, and to investigate its relationship and synergy with molecular characteristics. We retrospectively analysed 108 patients with primary glioblastoma. The discovery cohort consisted of 62 patients from the cancer genome atlas (TCGA). Another 46 patients comprising 30 from TCGA and 16 internally were used for independent validation. Based on integrated analyses of T1-weighted contrast-enhanced (T1-c) and diffusion-weighted MR images, we identified an intratumoral subregion with both high T1-c and low ADC, and accordingly defined a high-risk volume (HRV). We evaluated its prognostic value and biological significance with genomic data. On both discovery and validation cohorts, HRV predicted overall survival (OS) (concordance index: 0.642 and 0.653, P < 0.001 and P = 0.038, respectively). HRV stratified patients within the proneural molecular subtype (log-rank P = 0.040, hazard ratio = 2.787). We observed different OS among patients depending on their MGMT methylation status and HRV (log-rank P = 0.011). Patients with unmethylated MGMT and high HRV had significantly shorter survival (median survival: 9.3 vs. 18.4 months, log-rank P = 0.002). Volume of the high-risk intratumoral subregion identified on multi-parametric MRI predicts glioblastoma survival, and may provide complementary value to genomic information. (orig.)

Strategy and Economic Prospect of Back-end Cycle through ATW

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hendri Firman Windarto; Siti Alimah

2003-01-01

Strategy and economic prospect of back-end cycle through ATW has been studied. Nuclear fuel cycle through ATW is a single stratum of back-end cycle. By ATW, volume of spent fuel which should be disposed in long term can be reduced from 70,000 MHTM to 3,000 MHTM and half-life of spent fuel can be reduced from 15,700,000 years to 300 years. Strategic values of the ATW cycle are to prevent proliferation risk and to reduce the uncertainty of long term dispose. Economic prospect of the ATW cycle will give some advantages on reducing of spent fuel volume and its disposal period, and producing electricity. (author)

Quantitative computed tomography versus spirometry in predicting air leak duration after major lung resection for cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Ueda, Kazuhiro; Kaneda, Yoshikazu; Sudo, Manabu; Mitsutaka, Jinbo; Li, Tao-Sheng; Suga, Kazuyoshi; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Hamano, Kimikazu

2005-11-01

Emphysema is a well-known risk factor for developing air leak or persistent air leak after pulmonary resection. Although quantitative computed tomography (CT) and spirometry are used to diagnose emphysema, it remains controversial whether these tests are predictive of the duration of postoperative air leak. Sixty-two consecutive patients who were scheduled to undergo major lung resection for cancer were enrolled in this prospective study to define the best predictor of postoperative air leak duration. Preoperative factors analyzed included spirometric variables and area of emphysema (proportion of the low-attenuation area) that was quantified in a three-dimensional CT lung model. Chest tubes were removed the day after disappearance of the air leak, regardless of pleural drainage. Univariate and multivariate proportional hazards analyses were used to determine the influence of preoperative factors on chest tube time (air leak duration). By univariate analysis, site of resection (upper, lower), forced expiratory volume in 1 second, predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second, and area of emphysema ( 10%) were significant predictors of air leak duration. By multivariate analysis, site of resection and area of emphysema were the best independent determinants of air leak duration. The results were similar for patients with a smoking history (n = 40), but neither forced expiratory volume in 1 second nor predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second were predictive of air leak duration. Quantitative CT is superior to spirometry in predicting air leak duration after major lung resection for cancer. Quantitative CT may aid in the identification of patients, particularly among those with a smoking history, requiring additional preventive procedures against air leak.

QRS analysis using wavelet transformation for the prediction of response to cardiac resynchronization therapy: a prospective pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Vassilikos, Vassilios P; Mantziari, Lilian; Dakos, Georgios; Kamperidis, Vasileios; Chouvarda, Ioanna; Chatzizisis, Yiannis S; Kalpidis, Panagiotis; Theofilogiannakos, Efstratios; Paraskevaidis, Stelios; Karvounis, Haralambos; Mochlas, Sotirios; Maglaveras, Nikolaos; Styliadis, Ioannis H

2014-01-01

Wider QRS and left bundle branch block morphology are related to response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). A novel time-frequency analysis of the QRS complex may provide additional information in predicting response to CRT. Signal-averaged electrocardiograms were prospectively recorded, before CRT, in orthogonal leads and QRS decomposition in three frequency bands was performed using the Morlet wavelet transformation. Thirty eight patients (age 65±10years, 31 males) were studied. CRT responders (n=28) had wider baseline QRS compared to non-responders and lower QRS energies in all frequency bands. The combination of QRS duration and mean energy in the high frequency band had the best predicting ability (AUC 0.833, 95%CI 0.705-0.962, p=0.002) followed by the maximum energy in the high frequency band (AUC 0.811, 95%CI 0.663-0.960, p=0.004). Wavelet transformation of the QRS complex is useful in predicting response to CRT. © 2013.

Chest Wall Volume Receiving >30 Gy Predicts Risk of Severe Pain and/or Rib Fracture After Lung Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunlap, Neal E.; Cai, Jing; Biedermann, Gregory B.; Yang, Wensha; Benedict, Stanley H.; Sheng Ke; Schefter, Tracey E.; Kavanagh, Brian D.; Larner, James M.

2010-01-01

Purpose: To identify the dose-volume parameters that predict the risk of chest wall (CW) pain and/or rib fracture after lung stereotactic body radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: From a combined, larger multi-institution experience, 60 consecutive patients treated with three to five fractions of stereotactic body radiotherapy for primary or metastatic peripheral lung lesions were reviewed. CW pain was assessed using the Common Toxicity Criteria for pain. Peripheral lung lesions were defined as those located within 2.5 cm of the CW. A minimal point dose of 20 Gy to the CW was required. The CW volume receiving ≥20, ≥30, ≥40, ≥50, and ≥60 Gy was determined and related to the risk of CW toxicity. Results: Of the 60 patients, 17 experienced Grade 3 CW pain and five rib fractures. The median interval to the onset of severe pain and/or fracture was 7.1 months. The risk of CW toxicity was fitted to the median effective concentration dose-response model. The CW volume receiving 30 Gy best predicted the risk of severe CW pain and/or rib fracture (R 2 = 0.9552). A volume threshold of 30 cm 3 was observed before severe pain and/or rib fracture was reported. A 30% risk of developing severe CW toxicity correlated with a CW volume of 35 cm 3 receiving 30 Gy. Conclusion: The development of CW toxicity is clinically relevant, and the CW should be considered an organ at risk in treatment planning. The CW volume receiving 30 Gy in three to five fractions should be limited to 3 , if possible, to reduce the risk of toxicity without compromising tumor coverage.

Urinary engrailed-2 (EN2) levels predict tumour volume in men undergoing radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pandha, Hardev; Sørensen, Karina Dalsgaard; Ørntoft, Torben Falck

2012-01-01

ELISA test and is not dependent on other parameters, even PSA, unlike all the other current biomarkers under evaluation. To date, no marker correlates with the amount of cancer present - the present study shows this positive correlation with EN2 in men undergoing prostatectomy. The potential utility...... in men who had undergone radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer. To date, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels have not reliably predicted prostate cancer volume. Reliable volume indicator biomarker(s) may aid management decisions, e.g. active treatment vs active surveillance. PATIENTS......: In all, 88 of the whole cohort of 125 men (70%) were positive for EN2 in their urine (>42.5 µg/L); 38/58 (65%) men where cancer volume data was available. There was no statistical relationship between urinary EN2 levels and serum PSA levels. PSA levels did not correlate with tumour stage, combined...

The value of nodal information in predicting lung cancer relapse using 4DPET/4DCT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Heyse, E-mail: heyse.li@mail.utoronto.ca [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, 5 King’s College Road, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G8 (Canada); Becker, Nathan; Raman, Srinivas [Radiation Oncology, UHN Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, 610 University of Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M5T 2M9 (Canada); Chan, Timothy C. Y. [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, 5 King’s College Road, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G8, Canada and Techna Institute for the Advancement of Technology for Health, 124 - 100 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5G 1P5 (Canada); Bissonnette, Jean-Pierre [Radiation Oncology, UHN Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, 610 University of Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M5T 2M9, Canada and Techna Institute for the Advancement of Technology for Health, 124 - 100 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5G 1P5 (Canada)

2015-08-15

Purpose: There is evidence that computed tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography (PET) imaging metrics are prognostic and predictive in nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treatment outcomes. However, few studies have explored the use of standardized uptake value (SUV)-based image features of nodal regions as predictive features. The authors investigated and compared the use of tumor and node image features extracted from the radiotherapy target volumes to predict relapse in a cohort of NSCLC patients undergoing chemoradiation treatment. Methods: A prospective cohort of 25 patients with locally advanced NSCLC underwent 4DPET/4DCT imaging for radiation planning. Thirty-seven image features were derived from the CT-defined volumes and SUVs of the PET image from both the tumor and nodal target regions. The machine learning methods of logistic regression and repeated stratified five-fold cross-validation (CV) were used to predict local and overall relapses in 2 yr. The authors used well-known feature selection methods (Spearman’s rank correlation, recursive feature elimination) within each fold of CV. Classifiers were ranked on their Matthew’s correlation coefficient (MCC) after CV. Area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity values are also presented. Results: For predicting local relapse, the best classifier found had a mean MCC of 0.07 and was composed of eight tumor features. For predicting overall relapse, the best classifier found had a mean MCC of 0.29 and was composed of a single feature: the volume greater than 0.5 times the maximum SUV (N). Conclusions: The best classifier for predicting local relapse had only tumor features. In contrast, the best classifier for predicting overall relapse included a node feature. Overall, the methods showed that nodes add value in predicting overall relapse but not local relapse.

Novel prediction model of renal function after nephrectomy from automated renal volumetry with preoperative multidetector computed tomography (MDCT).

Science.gov (United States)

Isotani, Shuji; Shimoyama, Hirofumi; Yokota, Isao; Noma, Yasuhiro; Kitamura, Kousuke; China, Toshiyuki; Saito, Keisuke; Hisasue, Shin-ichi; Ide, Hisamitsu; Muto, Satoru; Yamaguchi, Raizo; Ukimura, Osamu; Gill, Inderbir S; Horie, Shigeo

2015-10-01

The predictive model of postoperative renal function may impact on planning nephrectomy. To develop the novel predictive model using combination of clinical indices with computer volumetry to measure the preserved renal cortex volume (RCV) using multidetector computed tomography (MDCT), and to prospectively validate performance of the model. Total 60 patients undergoing radical nephrectomy from 2011 to 2013 participated, including a development cohort of 39 patients and an external validation cohort of 21 patients. RCV was calculated by voxel count using software (Vincent, FUJIFILM). Renal function before and after radical nephrectomy was assessed via the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Factors affecting postoperative eGFR were examined by regression analysis to develop the novel model for predicting postoperative eGFR with a backward elimination method. The predictive model was externally validated and the performance of the model was compared with that of the previously reported models. The postoperative eGFR value was associated with age, preoperative eGFR, preserved renal parenchymal volume (RPV), preserved RCV, % of RPV alteration, and % of RCV alteration (p volumetry and clinical indices might yield an important tool for predicting postoperative renal function.

A prospective randomised controlled study for evaluation of high-volume low-concentration intraperitoneal bupivacaine for post-laparoscopic cholecystectomy analgesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shruti Jain

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Background and Aims: Low-volume high-concentration bupivacaine irrigation of the peritoneal cavity has been reported to be ineffective for short-term analgesia after laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC. This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of intraperitoneal instillation of high-volume low-concentration bupivacaine for post-operative analgesia in LC. Methods: Sixty patients undergoing LC were included in this prospective, double-blind, randomised study. Patients were divided into two (n = 30 groups. In Group S, intraperitoneal irrigation was done with 500 ml of normal saline. In Group B, 20 ml of 0.5% (100 mg bupivacaine was added to 480 ml of normal saline for intraperitoneal irrigation during and after surgery. Post-operative pain was assessed by numeric pain rating scale (NRS at fixed time intervals. Duration of analgesia (DOA, total rescue analgesic requirement (intravenous tramadol, presence of shoulder pain, nausea and vomiting were recorded for the initial 24 h post-operatively. Results: Mean DOA in Group S was 0.06 ± 0.172 h (3.6 ± 10.32 min and that in Group B was 19.35 ± 8.64 h (P = 0.000. Cumulative requirement of rescue analgesic in 24 h in Group S was 123.33 ± 43.01 mg and that in Group B was 23.33 ± 43.01 mg (P = 0.000. There was no significant difference in incidence of shoulder pain, nausea and vomiting between the groups. Conclusion: High-volume low-concentration of intraperitoneal bupivacaine significantly increases post-operative DOA and reduces opioid requirement after LC.

Proton upset rate prediction: a new sensitive volume concept definition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inguimbert, Christophe

1999-01-01

We present a model for predicting proton induced single event upset rate. The approach uses heavy ion cross section experimental data combined with nuclear reaction calculations in order to determine the proton upset cross section. The p+Si nuclear reaction as well as the Si(p, p)Si Coulombic scattering are described. The upset rate calculation depends on the energy deposited available in the charge collection region (sensitive region). This region is treated as a rectangular parallelepiped of thickness d at depth h. The sensitive thickness d is used as an input parameter in our model we have developed an original method to probe the sensitive region to evaluate d with reasonable accuracy d. We use short range ions and we propose a new mathematical analysis of these experimental data to determine h and d. This method consists in de-convoluting the heavy ion upset cross section σ_S_E_U(r) by the LET function of the incident ion LET(r) (r is the range of the incident ion). Our results are in relatively good agreement with other models. The accuracy of the method allows us to discuss the validity of the sensitive volume concept. Furthermore, we extrapolate an internal gain factor α that permit to take into account the charge collection mechanisms. α and d serve for quick and reasonably accurate prediction of proton induced SEU cross section in microelectronic devices. (author) [fr

Cervical Vertebral Body’s Volume as a New Parameter for Predicting the Skeletal Maturation Stages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youn-Kyung Choi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the correlation between the volumetric parameters derived from the images of the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae by using cone beam computed tomography with skeletal maturation stages and to propose a new formula for predicting skeletal maturation by using regression analysis. We obtained the estimation of skeletal maturation levels from hand-wrist radiographs and volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae bodies from 102 Japanese patients (54 women and 48 men, 5–18 years of age. We performed Pearson’s correlation coefficient analysis and simple regression analysis. All volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae exhibited statistically significant correlations (P<0.05. The simple regression model with the greatest R-square indicated the fourth-cervical-vertebra volume as an independent variable with a variance inflation factor less than ten. The explanation power was 81.76%. Volumetric parameters of cervical vertebrae using cone beam computed tomography are useful in regression models. The derived regression model has the potential for clinical application as it enables a simple and quantitative analysis to evaluate skeletal maturation level.

Comparison of Perfusion CT Software to Predict the Final Infarct Volume After Thrombectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Austein, Friederike; Riedel, Christian; Kerby, Tina; Meyne, Johannes; Binder, Andreas; Lindner, Thomas; Huhndorf, Monika; Wodarg, Fritz; Jansen, Olav

2016-09-01

Computed tomographic perfusion represents an interesting physiological imaging modality to select patients for reperfusion therapy in acute ischemic stroke. The purpose of our study was to determine the accuracy of different commercial perfusion CT software packages (Philips (A), Siemens (B), and RAPID (C)) to predict the final infarct volume (FIV) after mechanical thrombectomy. Single-institutional computed tomographic perfusion data from 147 mechanically recanalized acute ischemic stroke patients were postprocessed. Ischemic core and FIV were compared about thrombolysis in cerebral infarction (TICI) score and time interval to reperfusion. FIV was measured at follow-up imaging between days 1 and 8 after stroke. In 118 successfully recanalized patients (TICI 2b/3), a moderately to strongly positive correlation was observed between ischemic core and FIV. The highest accuracy and best correlation are shown in early and fully recanalized patients (Pearson r for A=0.42, B=0.64, and C=0.83; P<0.001). Bland-Altman plots and boxplots demonstrate smaller ranges in package C than in A and B. Significant differences were found between the packages about over- and underestimation of the ischemic core. Package A, compared with B and C, estimated more than twice as many patients with a malignant stroke profile (P<0.001). Package C best predicted hypoperfusion volume in nonsuccessfully recanalized patients. Our study demonstrates best accuracy and approximation between the results of a fully automated software (RAPID) and FIV, especially in early and fully recanalized patients. Furthermore, this software package overestimated the FIV to a significantly lower degree and estimated a malignant mismatch profile less often than other software. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Viscosity Prediction for Petroleum Fluids Using Free Volume Theory and PC-SAFT

Science.gov (United States)

Khoshnamvand, Younes; Assareh, Mehdi

2018-04-01

In this study, free volume theory ( FVT) in combination with perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory is implemented for viscosity prediction of petroleum reservoir fluids containing ill-defined components such as cuts and plus fractions. FVT has three adjustable parameters for each component to calculate viscosity. These three parameters for petroleum cuts (especially plus fractions) are not available. In this work, these parameters are determined for different petroleum fractions. A model as a function of molecular weight and specific gravity is developed using 22 real reservoir fluid samples with API grades in the range of 22 to 45. Afterward, the proposed model accuracy in comparison with the accuracy of De la Porte et al. with reference to experimental data is presented. The presented model is used for six real samples in an evaluation step, and the results are compared with available experimental data and the method of De la Porte et al. Finally, the method of Lohrenz et al. and the method of Pedersen et al. as two common industrial methods for viscosity calculation are compared with the proposed approach. The absolute average deviation was 9.7 % for free volume theory method, 15.4 % for Lohrenz et al., and 22.16 for Pedersen et al.

Ventilator flow data predict bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely premature neonates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariann H. Bentsen

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Early prediction of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD may facilitate tailored management for neonates at risk. We investigated whether easily accessible flow data from a mechanical ventilator can predict BPD in neonates born extremely premature (EP. In a prospective population-based study of EP-born neonates, flow data were obtained from the ventilator during the first 48 h of life. Data were logged for >10 min and then converted to flow–volume loops using custom-made software. Tidal breathing parameters were calculated and averaged from ≥200 breath cycles, and data were compared between those who later developed moderate/severe and no/mild BPD. Of 33 neonates, 18 developed moderate/severe and 15 no/mild BPD. The groups did not differ in gestational age, surfactant treatment or ventilator settings. The infants who developed moderate/severe BPD had evidence of less airflow obstruction, significantly so for tidal expiratory flow at 50% of tidal expiratory volume (TEF50 expressed as a ratio of peak tidal expiratory flow (PTEF (p=0.007. A compound model estimated by multiple logistic regression incorporating TEF50/PTEF, birthweight z-score and sex predicted moderate/severe BPD with good accuracy (area under the curve 0.893, 95% CI 0.735–0.973. This study suggests that flow data obtained from ventilators during the first hours of life may predict later BPD in premature neonates. Future and larger studies are needed to validate these findings and to determine their clinical usefulness.

A Study on Pharmacokinetics of Bosentan with Systems Modeling, Part 2: Prospectively Predicting Systemic and Liver Exposure in Healthy Subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Rui; Kimoto, Emi; Niosi, Mark; Tess, David A; Lin, Jian; Tremaine, Larry M; Di, Li

2018-04-01

Predicting human pharmacokinetics of novel compounds is a critical step in drug discovery and clinical study design but continues to be a challenging task for hepatic transporter substrates, particularly in predicting their liver exposures. In this study, using bosentan as an example, we prospectively predicted systemic exposure and the (pseudo) steady-state unbound liver-to-unbound plasma ratio ( K p uu ) in healthy subjects using 1) a mechanistic approach solely based on in vitro hepatocyte assays and 2) an approach based on hepatic process rates from monkey in vivo data but Michaelis-Menten constants from in vitro data. Both methods reasonably match the observed human systemic time course data, but the second method leads to better prediction accuracy. In addition, the second method can predict a human K p uu value that is close to the value deduced using clinical data. We also generated rat and monkey liver K p uu values in terminal studies. However, these directly measured animal values are different from the deduced human value. Copyright © 2018 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

Is the Predictability of New-Onset Postpartum Depression Better During Pregnancy or in the Early Postpartum Period? A Prospective Study in Croatian Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakić Radoš, Sandra; Herman, Radoslav; Tadinac, Meri

2016-01-01

The researchers' aim was to examine whether it was better to predict new-onset postpartum depression (PPD) during pregnancy or immediately after childbirth. A prospective study conducted in Croatia followed women (N = 272) from the third trimester of pregnancy through the early postpartum period (within the first 3 postpartum days), to 6 weeks postpartum. Questionnaires on depression, anxiety, stress, coping, self-esteem, and social support were administered. Through regression analyses we showed that PPD symptoms could be equally predicted by variables from pregnancy (30.3%) and the early postpartum period (34.0%), with a small advantage of PPD prediction in the early postpartum period.

Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity accurately predicts fluid responsiveness in children undergoing neurosurgery under general anesthesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Morparia, Kavita G; Reddy, Srijaya K; Olivieri, Laura J; Spaeder, Michael C; Schuette, Jennifer J

2018-04-01

The determination of fluid responsiveness in the critically ill child is of vital importance, more so as fluid overload becomes increasingly associated with worse outcomes. Dynamic markers of volume responsiveness have shown some promise in the pediatric population, but more research is needed before they can be adopted for widespread use. Our aim was to investigate effectiveness of respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity and pulse pressure variation to predict fluid responsiveness, and determine their optimal cutoff values. We performed a prospective, observational study at a single tertiary care pediatric center. Twenty-one children with normal cardiorespiratory status undergoing general anesthesia for neurosurgery were enrolled. Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity (ΔVpeak ao) was measured both before and after volume expansion using a bedside ultrasound device. Pulse pressure variation (PPV) value was obtained from the bedside monitor. All patients received a 10 ml/kg fluid bolus as volume expansion, and were qualified as responders if stroke volume increased >15% as a result. Utility of ΔVpeak ao and PPV and to predict responsiveness to volume expansion was investigated. A baseline ΔVpeak ao value of greater than or equal to 12.3% best predicted a positive response to volume expansion, with a sensitivity of 77%, specificity of 89% and area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.90. PPV failed to demonstrate utility in this patient population. Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity is a promising marker for optimization of perioperative fluid therapy in the pediatric population and can be accurately measured using bedside ultrasonography. More research is needed to evaluate the lack of effectiveness of pulse pressure variation for this purpose.

Prospect evaluation of shallow I-35 reservoir of NE Malay Basin offshore, Terengganu, Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janjua, Osama Akhtar; Wahid, Ali; Salim, Ahmed Mohamed Ahmed; Rahman, M. Nasir B. A.

2016-01-01

A potential accumulation of hydrocarbon that describes significant and conceivable drilling target is related to prospect. Possibility of success estimation, assuming discovery of hydrocarbons and the potential recoverable quantities range under a commercial development program are the basis of Prospect evaluation activities. The objective was to find the new shallow prospects in reservoir sandstone of I –Formation in Malay basin. The prospects in the study area are mostly consisting of faulted structures and stratigraphic channels. The methodology follows seismic interpretation and mapping, attribute analysis, evaluation of nearby well data i.e., based on well – log correlation. The petrophysical parameters analogue to nearby wells was used as an input parameter for volumetric assessment. Based on analysis of presence and effectiveness, the prospect has a complete petroleum system. Two wells have been proposed to be drilled near the major fault and stratigraphic channel in I-35 reservoir that is O-1 and O-2 prospects respectively. The probability of geological success of prospect O-1 is at 35% while for O-2 is 24%. Finally, for hydrocarbon in place volumes were calculated which concluded the best estimate volume for oil in O-1 prospect is 4.99 MMSTB and O-2 prospect is 28.70 MMSTB while for gas is 29.27 BSCF and 25.59 BSCF respectively

Prospect evaluation of shallow I-35 reservoir of NE Malay Basin offshore, Terengganu, Malaysia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Janjua, Osama Akhtar, E-mail: janjua945@hotmail.com; Wahid, Ali, E-mail: ali.wahid@live.com; Salim, Ahmed Mohamed Ahmed, E-mail: mohamed.salim@petronas.com.my [Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar, 32610 Tronoh, Perak (Malaysia); Rahman, M. Nasir B. A., E-mail: nasirr@petronas.com.my [Petroleum Engineering Division, PETRONAS Carigali Sdn Bhd, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

2016-02-01

A potential accumulation of hydrocarbon that describes significant and conceivable drilling target is related to prospect. Possibility of success estimation, assuming discovery of hydrocarbons and the potential recoverable quantities range under a commercial development program are the basis of Prospect evaluation activities. The objective was to find the new shallow prospects in reservoir sandstone of I –Formation in Malay basin. The prospects in the study area are mostly consisting of faulted structures and stratigraphic channels. The methodology follows seismic interpretation and mapping, attribute analysis, evaluation of nearby well data i.e., based on well – log correlation. The petrophysical parameters analogue to nearby wells was used as an input parameter for volumetric assessment. Based on analysis of presence and effectiveness, the prospect has a complete petroleum system. Two wells have been proposed to be drilled near the major fault and stratigraphic channel in I-35 reservoir that is O-1 and O-2 prospects respectively. The probability of geological success of prospect O-1 is at 35% while for O-2 is 24%. Finally, for hydrocarbon in place volumes were calculated which concluded the best estimate volume for oil in O-1 prospect is 4.99 MMSTB and O-2 prospect is 28.70 MMSTB while for gas is 29.27 BSCF and 25.59 BSCF respectively.

The predictive value of treatment response using FDG PET performed on day 21 of chemoradiotherapy in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. A prospective, multicentre study (RTEP3)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palie, Odre; Vera, Pierre; Michel, Pierre; Di Fiore, Frederic; Menard, Jean-Francois; Rousseau, Caroline; Bridji, Boumediene; Rio, Emmanuel; Benyoucef, Ahmed; Meyer, Marc-Etienne; Jalali, Khadija; Bardet, Stephane; M'Vondo, Che Mabubu; Olivier, Pierre; Faure, Guillaume; Itti, Emmanuel; Diana, Christian; Houzard, Claire; Mornex, Francoise

2013-01-01

FDG PET has been suggested to have predictive value in the prognosis of oesophageal carcinoma. However, the retrospective studies reported in the literature have shown discordant results. Additionally, only four studies have evaluated FDG PET during chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with different histological lesions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive value of FDG PET performed early during CRT (on day 21) in a population of patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Included in this prospective study were 57 patients with a histological diagnosis of squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus. Of these 57 patients, 48 (84 %) were evaluated (aged 63 ± 11 years; 44 men, 4 women). Each patient underwent FDG PET (4.5 MBq/kg) before CRT, according to the Herskovic protocol (t0; PET 1 ) and on day 21 ± 3 from the start of CRT (d21; PET 2 ). The response assessment included a clinical examination, CT scan or FDG PET and histological analysis 3 months and 1 year after PET 1 . The patients were classified as showing a complete response (CR) or a noncomplete response. A quantitative analysis was carried out for PET 1 and PET 2 using the following parameters: SUVmax, SUVmean (with SUVmean 40 as the 3-D volume at an SUVmax threshold of 40 % and SUVmean p as that defined by a physician), tumour volume (TV, with TV 40 defined as the TV at 40 % of SUVmax, and TV p as that defined by a physician); and the total lesion glycolysis (TLG, SUVmean x TV, with TLG 40 defined as the TLG at 40 % of SUVmax, and TLG p as that defined by a physician). The differences in responses at 3 months and 1 year between PET 1 (t0) and PET 2 (d21) were assessed in terms of variations in SUV, TV and TLG using a repeated measures of variance (ANOVA). SUVmax, SUVmean and TLG decreased significantly between PET 1 (t0) and PET 2 (d21; p p (p = 0.02); TV 40 did not decrease significantly. With respect to the predictive value of PET 1 , only TV 40 1 and TV p 1 values, and

Treatment with a belly-board device significantly reduces the volume of small bowel irradiated and results in low acute toxicity in adjuvant radiotherapy for gynecologic cancer: results of a prospective study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, Joseph; Fitzpatrick, Kathryn; Horan, Gail; McCloy, Roisin; Buckney, Steve; O'Neill, Louise; Faul, Clare

2005-01-01

Background and purpose: To determine whether treatment prone on a belly-board significantly reduces the volume of small bowel irradiated in women receiving adjuvant radiotherapy for gynecologic cancer, and to prospectively study acute small bowel toxicity using an accepted recording instrument. Material and methods: Thirty-two gynecologic patients underwent simulation with CT scanning supine and prone. Small bowel was delineated on every CT slice, and treatment was prone on the belly-board using 3-5 fields-typically Anterior, Right and Left Lateral, plus or minus Lateral Boosts. Median prescribed dose was 50.4 Gy and all treatments were delivered in 1.8 Gy fractions. Concomitant Cisplatin was administered in 13 patients with cervical carcinoma. Comparison of small bowel dose-volumes was made between supine and prone, with each subject acting as their own matched pair. Acute small bowel toxicity was prospectively measured using the Common Toxicity Criteria: Version 2.0. Results: Treatment prone on the belly-board significantly reduced the volume of small bowel receiving ≥100; ≥95; ≥90; and ≥80% of the prescribed dose, but not ≥50%. This was found whether volume was defined in cubic centimeters or % of total small bowel volume. Of 29 evaluable subjects, 2 (7%) experienced 1 episode each of grade 3 diarrhoea. All other toxicity events were grade 2 or less and comprised diarrhoea (59%), abdominal pain or cramping (48%), nausea (38%), anorexia (17%), vomiting (10%). There were no Grade 4 events and no treatment days were lost due to toxicity. Conclusions: Treatment prone on a belly-board device results in significant small bowel sparing, during adjuvant radiotherapy for gynecologic cancer. The absence of Grade 4 events or Treatment Days Lost compares favorably with the published literature

Volume and biomass for curlleaf cercocarpus in Nevada

Science.gov (United States)

David C. Chojnacky

1984-01-01

Volume and biomass equations were developed for curlleaf cercocarpus (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) in the Egan and Schell Mountains near Ely, NV. The equations predict cubic foot volume of wood and bark for variable minimum branch diameters. Wood density factors are given to convert volume predictions to pounds of fiber biomass. The reliability of...

Accuracy and Predictability of PANC-3 Scoring System over APACHE II in Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rathnakar, Surag Kajoor; Vishnu, Vikram Hubbanageri; Muniyappa, Shridhar; Prasath, Arun

2017-02-01

Acute Pancreatitis (AP) is one of the common conditions encountered in the emergency room. The course of the disease ranges from mild form to severe acute form. Most of these episodes are mild and spontaneously subsiding within 3 to 5 days. In contrast, Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP) occurring in around 15-20% of all cases, mortality can range between 10 to 85% across various centres and countries. In such a situation we need an indicator which can predict the outcome of an attack, as severe or mild, as early as possible and such an indicator should be sensitive and specific enough to trust upon. PANC-3 scoring is such a scoring system in predicting the outcome of an attack of AP. To assess the accuracy and predictability of PANC-3 scoring system over APACHE II in predicting severity in an attack of AP. This prospective study was conducted on 82 patients admitted with the diagnosis of pancreatitis. Investigations to evaluate PANC-3 and APACHE II were done on all the patients and the PANC-3 and APACHE II score was calculated. PANC-3 score has a sensitivity of 82.6% and specificity of 77.9%, the test had a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 0.59 and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 0.92. Sensitivity of APACHE II in predicting SAP was 91.3% and specificity was 96.6% with PPV of 0.91, NPV was 0.96. Our study shows that PANC-3 can be used to predict the severity of pancreatitis as efficiently as APACHE II. The interpretation of PANC-3 does not need expertise and can be applied at the time of admission which is an advantage when compared to classical scoring systems.

Information processing biases concurrently and prospectively predict depressive symptoms in adolescents: Evidence from a self-referent encoding task.

Science.gov (United States)

Connolly, Samantha L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2016-01-01

Negative information processing biases have been hypothesised to serve as precursors for the development of depression. The current study examined negative self-referent information processing and depressive symptoms in a community sample of adolescents (N = 291, Mage at baseline = 12.34 ± 0.61, 53% female, 47.4% African-American, 49.5% Caucasian and 3.1% Biracial). Participants completed a computerised self-referent encoding task (SRET) and a measure of depressive symptoms at baseline and completed an additional measure of depressive symptoms nine months later. Several negative information processing biases on the SRET were associated with concurrent depressive symptoms and predicted increases in depressive symptoms at follow-up. Findings partially support the hypothesis that negative information processing biases are associated with depressive symptoms in a nonclinical sample of adolescents, and provide preliminary evidence that these biases prospectively predict increases in depressive symptoms.

Office gel sonovaginography for the prediction of posterior deep infiltrating endometriosis: a multicenter prospective observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, S; Lu, C; Hardy, N; Casikar, I; Reid, G; Cario, G; Chou, D; Almashat, D; Condous, G

2014-12-01

To use office gel sonovaginography (SVG) to predict posterior deep infiltrating endometriosis (DIE) in women undergoing laparoscopy. This was a multicenter prospective observational study carried out between January 2009 and February 2013. All women were of reproductive age, had a history of chronic pelvic pain and underwent office gel SVG assessment for the prediction of posterior compartment DIE prior to laparoscopic endometriosis surgery. Gel SVG findings were compared with laparoscopic findings to determine the diagnostic accuracy of office gel SVG for the prediction of posterior compartment DIE. In total, 189 women underwent preoperative gel SVG and laparoscopy for endometriosis. At laparoscopy, 57 (30%) women had posterior DIE and 43 (23%) had rectosigmoid/anterior rectal DIE. For the prediction of rectosigmoid/anterior rectal (i.e. bowel) DIE, gel SVG had an accuracy of 92%, sensitivity of 88%, specificity of 93%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 79%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 97%, positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 12.9 and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.12 (P = 3.98E-25); for posterior vaginal wall and rectovaginal septum (RVS) DIE, respectively, the accuracy was 95% and 95%, sensitivity was 18% and 18%, specificity was 99% and 100%, PPV was 67% and 100%, NPV was 95% and 95%, LR+ was 32.4 and infinity and LR- was 0.82 and 0.82 (P = 0.009 and P = 0.003). Office gel SVG appears to be an effective outpatient imaging technique for the prediction of bowel DIE, with a higher accuracy for the prediction of rectosigmoid compared with anterior rectal DIE. Although the sensitivity for vaginal and RVS DIE was limited, gel SVG had a high specificity and NPV for all forms of posterior DIE, indicating that a negative gel SVG examination is highly suggestive of the absence of DIE at laparoscopy. Copyright © 2014 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Diagnostic peritoneal lavage: volume of lavage effluent needed for accurate determination of a negative lavage.

Science.gov (United States)

Sweeney, J F; Albrink, M H; Bischof, E; McAllister, E W; Rosemurgy, A S

1994-12-01

While the ability of diagnostic peritoneal lavage (DPL) to 'rule out' occult intra-abdominal injuries has been well established, the volume of lavage effluent necessary for accurate prediction of a negative lavage has not been determined. To address this, 60 injured adults with blunt (N = 45) or penetrating (N = 15) trauma undergoing DPL were evaluated prospectively through protocol. After infusion of 1l of Ringer's lactate solution, samples of lavage effluent were obtained at 100 cm3, 250 cm3, 500 cm3, and 759 cm3, and when no more effluent could be returned (final sample). DPL was considered negative if final sample RBC count was < or = 100,000/mm3 for blunt injury and < 50,000/mm3 for penetrating injury. The conclusion is that at 100 cm3 of lavage effluent returned, negative results are highly predictive of a negative DPL (98 per cent), though 250 cm3 of lavage effluent is required to predict a negative DPL uniformly (100 per cent).

Can simulation measurements be used to predict the irradiated lung volume in the tangential fields in patients treated for breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bornstein, B.A.; Cheng, C.W.; Rhodes, L.M.; Rashid, H.; Stomper, P.C.; Siddon, R.L.; Harris, J.R.

1990-01-01

A simple method of estimating the amount of lung irradiated in patients with breast cancer would be of use in minimizing lung complications. To determine whether simple measurements taken at the time of simulation can be used to predict the lung volume in the radiation field, we performed CT scans as part of treatment planning in 40 cases undergoing radiotherapy for breast cancer. Parameters measured from simulator films included: (a) the perpendicular distance from the posterior tangential field edge to the posterior part of the anterior chest wall at the center of the field (CLD); (b) the maximum perpendicular distance from the posterior tangential field edge to the posterior part of the anterior chest wall (MLD); and (c) the length of lung (L) as measured at the posterior tangential field edge on the simulator film. CT scans of the chest were performed with the patient in the treatment position with 1 cm slice intervals, covering lung apex to base. The ipsilateral total lung area and the lung area included within the treatment port were calculated for each CT scan slice, multiplied by the slice thickness, and then integrated over all CT scan slices to give the volumes. The best predictor of the percent of ipsilateral lung volume treated by the tangential fields was the CLD. Employing linear regression analysis, a coefficient of determination r2 = 0.799 was calculated between CLD and percent treated ipsilateral lung volume on CT scan. In comparison, the coefficients for the other parameters were r2 = 0.784 for the MLD, r2 = 0.071 for L, and r2 = 0.690 for CLD x L. A CLD of 1.5 cm predicted that about 6% of the ipsilateral lung would be included in the tangential field, a CLD of 2.5 cm about 16%, and a CLD of 3.5 cm about 26% of the ipsilateral lung, with a mean 90% prediction interval of +/- 7.1% of ipsilateral lung volume

Is it possible to predict low-volume and insignificant prostate cancer by core needle biopsies?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berg, Kasper Drimer; Toft, Birgitte Grønkaer; Røder, Martin Andreas

2013-01-01

M: tumour ≤5% of total prostate volume and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤10 ng/mL. In all definitions, Gleason score (GS) was ≤6 and the tumour was organ confined. Biopsies alone performed poorly as a predictor of unifocal and unilateral cancer in the prostatectomy specimens with positive predictive......In an attempt to minimize overtreatment of localized prostate cancer (PCa) active surveillance (AS) and minor invasive procedures have received increased attention. We investigated the accuracy of pre-operative findings in defining insignificant disease and distinguishing between unilateral.......9% and 12.0%, respectively, for identifying InsigM, InsigW and InsigE in the prostate specimen. Conclusively, routine prostate biopsies cannot predict unifocal and unilateral PCa, and must be regarded insufficient to select patients for focal therapy. Although candidates for AS may be identified using...

The Dose-Volume Relationship of Small Bowel Irradiation and Acute Grade 3 Diarrhea During Chemoradiotherapy for Rectal Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robertson, John M.; Lockman, David; Yan Di; Wallace, Michelle

2008-01-01

Purpose: Previous work has found a highly significant relationship between the irradiated small-bowel volume and development of Grade 3 small-bowel toxicity in patients with rectal cancer. This study tested the previously defined parameters in a much larger group of patients. Methods and Materials: A total of 96 consecutive patients receiving pelvic radiation therapy for rectal cancer had treatment planning computed tomographic scans with small-bowel contrast that allowed the small bowel to be outlined with calculation of a small-bowel dose-volume histogram for the initial intended pelvic treatment to 45 Gy. Patients with at least one parameter above the previously determined dose-volume parameters were considered high risk, whereas those with all parameters below these levels were low risk. The grade of diarrhea and presence of liquid stool was determined prospectively. Results: There was a highly significant association with small-bowel dose-volume and Grade 3 diarrhea (p ≤ 0.008). The high-risk and low-risk parameters were predictive with Grade 3 diarrhea in 16 of 51 high-risk patients and in 4 of 45 low-risk patients (p = 0.01). Patients who had undergone irradiation preoperatively had a lower incidence of Grade 3 diarrhea than those treated postoperatively (18% vs. 28%; p = 0.31); however, the predictive ability of the high-risk/low-risk parameters was better for preoperatively (p = 0.03) than for postoperatively treated patients (p = 0.15). Revised risk parameters were derived that improved the overall predictive ability (p = 0.004). Conclusions: The highly significant dose-volume relationship and validity of the high-risk and low-risk parameters were confirmed in a large group of patients. The risk parameters provided better modeling for the preoperative patients than for the postoperative patients

Application of the Streamflow Prediction Tool to Estimate Sediment Dredging Volumes in Texas Coastal Waterways

Science.gov (United States)

Yeates, E.; Dreaper, G.; Afshari, S.; Tavakoly, A. A.

2017-12-01

Over the past six fiscal years, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has contracted an average of about a billion dollars per year for navigation channel dredging. To execute these funds effectively, USACE Districts must determine which navigation channels need to be dredged in a given year. Improving this prioritization process results in more efficient waterway maintenance. This study uses the Streamflow Prediction Tool, a runoff routing model based on global weather forecast ensembles, to estimate dredged volumes. This study establishes regional linear relationships between cumulative flow and dredged volumes over a long-term simulation covering 30 years (1985-2015), using drainage area and shoaling parameters. The study framework integrates the National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus Dataset) with parameters from the Corps Shoaling Analysis Tool (CSAT) and dredging record data from USACE District records. Results in the test cases of the Houston Ship Channel and the Sabine and Port Arthur Harbor waterways in Texas indicate positive correlation between the simulated streamflows and actual dredging records.

Early EEG for outcome prediction of postanoxic coma: prospective cohort study with cost-minimization analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sondag, Lotte; Ruijter, Barry J; Tjepkema-Cloostermans, Marleen C; Beishuizen, Albertus; Bosch, Frank H; van Til, Janine A; van Putten, Michel J A M; Hofmeijer, Jeannette

2017-05-15

We recently showed that electroencephalography (EEG) patterns within the first 24 hours robustly contribute to multimodal prediction of poor or good neurological outcome of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. Here, we confirm these results and present a cost-minimization analysis. Early prognosis contributes to communication between doctors and family, and may prevent inappropriate treatment. A prospective cohort study including 430 subsequent comatose patients after cardiac arrest was conducted at intensive care units of two teaching hospitals. Continuous EEG was started within 12 hours after cardiac arrest and continued up to 3 days. EEG patterns were visually classified as unfavorable (isoelectric, low-voltage, or burst suppression with identical bursts) or favorable (continuous patterns) at 12 and 24 hours after cardiac arrest. Outcome at 6 months was classified as good (cerebral performance category (CPC) 1 or 2) or poor (CPC 3, 4, or 5). Predictive values of EEG measures and cost-consequences from a hospital perspective were investigated, assuming EEG-based decision- making about withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in the case of a poor predicted outcome. Poor outcome occurred in 197 patients (51% of those included in the analyses). Unfavorable EEG patterns at 24 hours predicted a poor outcome with specificity of 100% (95% CI 98-100%) and sensitivity of 29% (95% CI 22-36%). Favorable patterns at 12 hours predicted good outcome with specificity of 88% (95% CI 81-93%) and sensitivity of 51% (95% CI 42-60%). Treatment withdrawal based on an unfavorable EEG pattern at 24 hours resulted in a reduced mean ICU length of stay without increased mortality in the long term. This gave small cost reductions, depending on the timing of withdrawal. Early EEG contributes to reliable prediction of good or poor outcome of postanoxic coma and may lead to reduced length of ICU stay. In turn, this may bring small cost reductions.

Accuracy evaluation of Fourier series analysis and singular spectrum analysis for predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Sasmita, Yoga; Darmawan, Gumgum

2017-08-01

This research aims to evaluate the performance of forecasting by Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) which are more explorative and not requiring parametric assumption. Those methods are applied to predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia from January 2005 to December 2016 (monthly). Both models are suitable for seasonal and trend component data. Technically, FSA defines time domain as the result of trend and seasonal component in different frequencies which is difficult to identify in the time domain analysis. With the hidden period is 2,918 ≈ 3 and significant model order is 3, FSA model is used to predict testing data. Meanwhile, SSA has two main processes, decomposition and reconstruction. SSA decomposes the time series data into different components. The reconstruction process starts with grouping the decomposition result based on similarity period of each component in trajectory matrix. With the optimum of window length (L = 53) and grouping effect (r = 4), SSA predicting testing data. Forecasting accuracy evaluation is done based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The result shows that in the next 12 month, SSA has MAPE = 13.54 percent, MAE = 61,168.43 and RMSE = 75,244.92 and FSA has MAPE = 28.19 percent, MAE = 119,718.43 and RMSE = 142,511.17. Therefore, to predict volume of motorcycle sales in the next period should use SSA method which has better performance based on its accuracy.

Evaluation of PSA-age volume score in predicting prostate cancer in Chinese populationArticle Subject.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yi-Shuo; Wu, Xiao-Bo; Zhang, Ning; Jiang, Guang-Liang; Yu, Yang; Tong, Shi-Jun; Jiang, Hao-Wen; Mao, Shan-Hua; Na, Rong; Ding, Qiang

2018-02-06

This study was performed to evaluate prostate-specific antigen-age volume (PSA-AV) scores in predicting prostate cancer (PCa) in a Chinese biopsy population. A total of 2355 men who underwent initial prostate biopsy from January 2006 to November 2015 in Huashan Hospital were recruited in the current study. The PSA-AV scores were calculated and assessed together with PSA and PSA density (PSAD) retrospectively. Among 2133 patients included in the analysis, 947 (44.4%) were diagnosed with PCa. The mean age, PSA, and positive rates of digital rectal examination result and transrectal ultrasound result were statistically higher in men diagnosed with PCa (all P PSA-AV were 0.864 and 0.851, respectively, in predicting PCa in the entire population, both performed better than PSA (AUC = 0.805; P PSA-AV was more obvious in subgroup with PSA ranging from 2.0 ng ml-1 to 20.0 ng ml-1. A PSA-AV score of 400 had a sensitivity and specificity of 93.7% and 40.0%, respectively. In conclusion, the PSA-AV score performed equally with PSAD and was better than PSA in predicting PCa. This indicated that PSA-AV score could be a useful tool for predicting PCa in Chinese population.

A principal component approach for predicting the stem volume in Eucalyptus plantations in Brazil using airborne LiDAR data

Science.gov (United States)

Carlos Alberto Silva; Carine Klauberg; Andrew T. Hudak; Lee A. Vierling; Veraldo Liesenberg; Samuel P. C. e Carvalho; Luiz C. E. Rodriguez

2016-01-01

Improving management practices in industrial forest plantations may increase production efficiencies, thereby reducing pressures on native tropical forests for meeting global pulp needs. This study aims to predict stem volume (V) in plantations of fast-growing Eucalyptus hybrid clones located in southeast Brazil using field plot and airborne Light Detection...

The volume-expanding effects of autologous liquid stored plasma following hemorrhage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bentzer, Peter; Thomas, Owain D; Westborg, Johan

2012-01-01

of plasma transfusion on plasma volume. We report a prospective interventional study in which the plasma volume-expanding effect of autologous plasma was investigated after a controlled hemorrhage. Methods. Plasma obtained by plasmapheresis from nine healthy regular blood donors was stored at 2-6°C. Five...

Results of a prospective study evaluating the effects of mantle irradiation on pulmonary function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, L.M.; Mendenhall, N.P.; Cicale, M.J.; Block, E.R.; Carter, R.L.; Million, R.R.

1989-01-01

Thirty patients with Stages I-III Hodgkin's disease receiving mantle irradiation were prospectively evaluated prior to therapy with spirometry, lung volumes, and tests of diffusing capacity (DLCO). Follow-up examinations were performed at 3, 6, and 12 months and then yearly. Sixteen patients had Hodgkin's disease involving the mediastinum at presentation, 10 were smokers, and 16 received either preirradiation or postirradiation chemotherapy. Mantle doses ranged between 2300 cGy and 4000 cGy (mode of 3750 cGy) given at 150 cGy to 170 cGy tumor dose per day with split-course technique. Twenty patients have been tested greater than or equal to 4 years after treatment with a median time from treatment to last pulmonary function test of 8 years. Changes over time in spirometry included an early, mild decrease in both forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV1), which returned to baseline by 2 years and then gradually decreased to a 10-15% deficit as compared with predicted values at 6-10 years. Additionally, there was a very slight decrease in FEV1/FVC beginning at 1 year and gradually increasing to an 8% deficit at 6-10 years. Changes over time in lung volumes included a mild nadir of total lung capacity (TLC) and functional residual capacity (FRC) at 6 months to a year, which returned to baseline at 2-4 years and then gradually dropped to a 5-10% deficit at 6-10 years. Mean DLCO for the study group was 20% below predicted values prior to treatment and dropped to a low of 30% below predicted at 6 months following treatment, then gradually returned to baseline by 4 years and showed continued improvement to an overall deficit of approximately 10% at 6-10 years

Rib fractures predict incident limb fractures: results from the European prospective osteoporosis study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, A A; Silman, A J; Reeve, J; Kaptoge, S; O'Neill, T W

2006-01-01

Population studies suggest that rib fractures are associated with a reduction in bone mass. While much is known about the predictive risk of hip, spine and distal forearm fracture on the risk of future fracture, little is known about the impact of rib fracture. The aim of this study was to determine whether a recalled history of rib fracture was associated with an increased risk of future limb fracture. Men and women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 31 European centres for participation in a screening survey of osteoporosis (European Prospective Osteoporosis Study). Subjects were invited to complete an interviewer-administered questionnaire that included questions about previous fractures including rib fracture, the age of their first fracture and also the level of trauma. Lateral spine radiographs were performed and the presence of vertebral deformity was determined morphometrically. Following the baseline survey, subjects were followed prospectively by annual postal questionnaire to determine the occurrence of clinical fractures. The subjects included 6,344 men, with a mean age of 64.2 years, and 6,788 women, with a mean age of 63.6 years, who were followed for a median of 3 years (range 0.4-5.9 years), of whom 135 men (2.3%) and 101 women (1.6%) reported a previous low trauma rib fracture. In total, 138 men and 391 women sustained a limb fracture during follow-up. In women, after age adjustment, those with a recalled history of low trauma rib fracture had an increased risk of sustaining 'any' limb fracture [relative hazard (RH)=2.3; 95% CI 1.3, 4.0]. When stratified by fracture type the predictive risk was more marked for hip (RH=7.7; 95% CI 2.3, 25.9) and humerus fracture (RH=4.5; 95% CI 1.4, 14.6) than other sites (RH=1.6; 95% CI 0.6, 4.3). Additional adjustment for prevalent vertebral deformity and previous (non-rib) low trauma fractures at other sites slightly reduced the strength of the association between rib fracture and

Predicting students' physical activity and health-related well-being: a prospective cross-domain investigation of motivation across school physical education and exercise settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Standage, Martyn; Gillison, Fiona B; Ntoumanis, Nikos; Treasure, Darren C

2012-02-01

A three-wave prospective design was used to assess a model of motivation guided by self-determination theory (Ryan & Deci, 2008) spanning the contexts of school physical education (PE) and exercise. The outcome variables examined were health-related quality of life (HRQoL), physical self-concept (PSC), and 4 days of objectively assessed estimates of activity. Secondary school students (n = 494) completed questionnaires at three separate time points and were familiarized with how to use a sealed pedometer. Results of structural equation modeling supported a model in which perceptions of autonomy support from a PE teacher positively predicted PE-related need satisfaction (autonomy, competence, and relatedness). Competence predicted PSC, whereas relatedness predicted HRQoL. Autonomy and competence positively predicted autonomous motivation toward PE, which in turn positively predicted autonomous motivation toward exercise (i.e., 4-day pedometer step count). Autonomous motivation toward exercise positively predicted step count, HRQoL, and PSC. Results of multisample structural equation modeling supported gender invariance. Suggestions for future work are discussed.

SU-F-R-48: Early Prediction of Pathological Response of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Using Perfusion CT:A Prospective Clinical Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nie, K; Yue, N; Jabbour, S; Kim, S [Rutgers-Cancer Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers-Robert Wood Johnson Medical, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Shi, L; Mao, T; Qian, L; Hu, X; Sun, X; Niu, T [Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To prospectively evaluate the tumor vascularity assessed by perfusion CT for prediction of chemo-radiation treatment (CRT) response in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Methods: Eighteen consecutive patients (61.9±8.8 years, from March–June 2015) diagnosed with LARC who underwent 6–8 weeks CRT followed by surgery were included. The pre-treatment perfusion CT was acquired after a 5s delay of contrast agent injection for 45s with 1s interval. A total of 7-cm craniocaudal range covered the tumor region with 3-mm slice thickness. The effective radiation dose is around 15mSv, which is about 1.5 the conventional abdomen/pelvis CT dose. The parametric map of blood flow (BF), blood volume (BV), mean transit time (MTT), permeability (PMB), and maximum intensity map (MIP) were obtained from commercial software (Syngo-CT 2011A, Siemens). An experienced radiation oncologist outlined the tumor based on the pre-operative MR and pathologic residual region, but was blinded with regards to pathological tumor stage. The perfusion parameters were compared to histopathological response quantified by tumor regression grade as good-responder (GR, TRG 0-1) vs. non-good responder (non-GR). Furthermore, the predictive value for pathological complete response (pCR) was also investigated. Results: Both BV (p=0.02) and MTT (P=0.02) was significantly higher and permeambility was lower (p=0.004) in the good responders. The BF was higher in GR group but not statistically significant. Regarding the discrimination of pCR vs non-pCR, the BF was higher in the pCR group (p=0.08) but none of those parameters showed statistically significant differences. Conclusion: BV and MTT can discriminate patients with a favorable response from those that fail to respond well, potentially selecting high-risk patients with resistant tumors that may benefit from an aggressive preoperative treatment approach. However, future studies with more patient data are needed to verify the prognostic value

Characterizing Tumor Heterogeneity With Functional Imaging and Quantifying High-Risk Tumor Volume for Early Prediction of Treatment Outcome: Cervical Cancer as a Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayr, Nina A.; Huang Zhibin; Wang, Jian Z.; Lo, Simon S.; Fan, Joline M.; Grecula, John C.; Sammet, Steffen; Sammet, Christina L.; Jia Guang; Zhang Jun; Knopp, Michael V.; Yuh, William T.C.

2012-01-01

Purpose: Treatment response in cancer has been monitored by measuring anatomic tumor volume (ATV) at various times without considering the inherent functional tumor heterogeneity known to critically influence ultimate treatment outcome: primary tumor control and survival. This study applied dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) functional MRI to characterize tumors' heterogeneous subregions with low DCE values, at risk for treatment failure, and to quantify the functional risk volume (FRV) for personalized early prediction of treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: DCE-MRI was performed in 102 stage IB 2 –IVA cervical cancer patients to assess tumor perfusion heterogeneity before and during radiation/chemotherapy. FRV represents the total volume of tumor voxels with critically low DCE signal intensity ( 20, >13, and >5 cm 3 , respectively, significantly predicted unfavorable 6-year primary tumor control (p = 0.003, 7.3 × 10 −8 , 2.0 × 10 −8 ) and disease-specific survival (p = 1.9 × 10 −4 , 2.1 × 10 −6 , 2.5 × 10 −7 , respectively). The FRVs were superior to the ATVs as early predictors of outcome, and the differentiating power of FRVs increased during treatment. Discussion: Our preliminary results suggest that functional tumor heterogeneity can be characterized by DCE-MRI to quantify FRV for predicting ultimate long-term treatment outcome. FRV is a novel functional imaging heterogeneity parameter, superior to ATV, and can be clinically translated for personalized early outcome prediction before or as early as 2–5 weeks into treatment.

Development of Multivariable Models to Predict and Benchmark Transfusion in Elective Surgery Supporting Patient Blood Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayn, Dieter; Kreiner, Karl; Ebner, Hubert; Kastner, Peter; Breznik, Nada; Rzepka, Angelika; Hofmann, Axel; Gombotz, Hans; Schreier, Günter

2017-06-14

Blood transfusion is a highly prevalent procedure in hospitalized patients and in some clinical scenarios it has lifesaving potential. However, in most cases transfusion is administered to hemodynamically stable patients with no benefit, but increased odds of adverse patient outcomes and substantial direct and indirect cost. Therefore, the concept of Patient Blood Management has increasingly gained importance to pre-empt and reduce transfusion and to identify the optimal transfusion volume for an individual patient when transfusion is indicated. It was our aim to describe, how predictive modeling and machine learning tools applied on pre-operative data can be used to predict the amount of red blood cells to be transfused during surgery and to prospectively optimize blood ordering schedules. In addition, the data derived from the predictive models should be used to benchmark different hospitals concerning their blood transfusion patterns. 6,530 case records obtained for elective surgeries from 16 centers taking part in two studies conducted in 2004-2005 and 2009-2010 were analyzed. Transfused red blood cell volume was predicted using random forests. Separate models were trained for overall data, for each center and for each of the two studies. Important characteristics of different models were compared with one another. Our results indicate that predictive modeling applied prior surgery can predict the transfused volume of red blood cells more accurately (correlation coefficient cc = 0.61) than state of the art algorithms (cc = 0.39). We found significantly different patterns of feature importance a) in different hospitals and b) between study 1 and study 2. We conclude that predictive modeling can be used to benchmark the importance of different features on the models derived with data from different hospitals. This might help to optimize crucial processes in a specific hospital, even in other scenarios beyond Patient Blood Management.

ABC/2 Method Does not Accurately Predict Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformation Volume.

Science.gov (United States)

Roark, Christopher; Vadlamudi, Venu; Chaudhary, Neeraj; Gemmete, Joseph J; Seinfeld, Joshua; Thompson, B Gregory; Pandey, Aditya S

2018-02-01

Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is a treatment option for cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) to prevent intracranial hemorrhage. The decision to proceed with SRS is usually based on calculated nidal volume. Physicians commonly use the ABC/2 formula, based on digital subtraction angiography (DSA), when counseling patients for SRS. To determine whether AVM volume calculated using the ABC/2 method on DSA is accurate when compared to the exact volume calculated from thin-cut axial sections used for SRS planning. Retrospective search of neurovascular database to identify AVMs treated with SRS from 1995 to 2015. Maximum nidal diameters in orthogonal planes on DSA images were recorded to determine volume using ABC/2 formula. Nidal target volume was extracted from operative reports of SRS. Volumes were then compared using descriptive statistics and paired t-tests. Ninety intracranial AVMs were identified. Median volume was 4.96 cm3 [interquartile range (IQR) 1.79-8.85] with SRS planning methods and 6.07 cm3 (IQR 1.3-13.6) with ABC/2 methodology. Moderate correlation was seen between SRS and ABC/2 (r = 0.662; P ABC/2 (t = -3.2; P = .002). When AVMs were dichotomized based on ABC/2 volume, significant differences remained (t = 3.1, P = .003 for ABC/2 volume ABC/2 volume > 7 cm3). The ABC/2 method overestimates cerebral AVM volume when compared to volumetric analysis from SRS planning software. For AVMs > 7 cm3, the overestimation is even greater. SRS planning techniques were also significantly different than values derived from equations for cones and cylinders. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, D. D.

2008-12-01

Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require

The accurate definition of metabolic volumes on {sup 18}F-FDG-PET before treatment allows the response to chemoradiotherapy to be predicted in the case of oesophagus cancers; La definition precise des volumes metaboliques sur TEP au 18F-FDG avant traitement permet la prediction de la reponse a la chimioradiotherapie dans les cancers de l'oesophage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hatt, M.; Cheze-Le Rest, C.; Visvikis, D. [Inserm U650, Brest (France); Pradier, O. [Radiotherapie, CHRU Morvan, Brest (France)

2011-10-15

This study aims at assessing the possibility of prediction of the response of locally advanced oesophagus cancers, even before the beginning of treatment, by using metabolic volume measurements performed on {sup 18}F-FDG PET images made before the treatment. Medical files of 50 patients have been analyzed. According to the observed responses, and to metabolic volume and Total Lesion Glycosis (TLG) values, it appears that the images allow the extraction of parameters, such as the TLG, which are criteria for the prediction of the therapeutic response. Short communication

Impact of institutional volume and experience with CT interpretation on sizing of transcatheter aortic valves: A multicenter retrospective study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verma, Divya Ratan; Pershad, Yash; Pershad, Ashish; Fang, Kenith; Gellert, George; Morris, Michael F.

2016-01-01

Background: Computed tomography (CT) has become the standard imaging modality for pre-procedural aortic annular sizing prior to transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). We hypothesized that the accuracy of CT derived annular measurements would be greater at sites with higher TAVR procedural volume. Methods: Within a large integrated health system, TAVR was performed at low ( 75 cases). 181 patients underwent TAVR with a Sapien XT transcatheter heart valve (THV). Two blinded experienced readers independently remeasured the annulus on CT and compared their measurements to site reported measurements. Hypothetical THV sizes were chosen based on measurements from site CT reports and independent readers’ measurements, and compared to the implanted THV size. Results: Correlation between site reported measurements and independent readers measurements of mean annulus size varied between low-volume (r = 0.31, p = 0.18), intermediate-volume (r = 0.34, p = 0.01), and high-volume sites (r = 0.96, p < 0.01). On multivariate analysis, interpretation of ≥20 CT scans (OR 0.29; 95% CI 0.03–0.81; p 0.02) and high-volume site (OR 0.16; 95% CI 0.10–0.82; p 0.02) were associated with reduced mismatch between the site predicted THV size and independent readers predicted THV size. Mismatch between site predicted THV size and implanted THV size was associated with a worse 30-day composite of mortality, dialysis-dependent renal failure, cerebrovascular accident, new permanent pacemaker, and hospital readmission (55.3 vs. 38.7%; p = 0.05). Conclusions: Accuracy of CT aortic annular sizing is improved with higher individual experience and site TAVR volume. These findings should be confirmed in larger, prospective studies. - Highlights: • Accuracy of CT aortic annular sizing is improved with higher individual experience and site TAVR volume. • CT readers with experience interpreting ≥20 pre-TAVR CT scans had significantly improved accuracy in identifying the annulus. �

Predicting Stem Total and Assortment Volumes in an Industrial Pinus taeda L. Forest Plantation Using Airborne Laser Scanning Data and Random Forest

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Carlos Alberto Silva

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Improvements in the management of pine plantations result in multiple industrial and environmental benefits. Remote sensing techniques can dramatically increase the efficiency of plantation management by reducing or replacing time-consuming field sampling. We tested the utility and accuracy of combining field and airborne lidar data with Random Forest, a supervised machine learning algorithm, to estimate stem total and assortment (commercial and pulpwood volumes in an industrial Pinus taeda L. forest plantation in southern Brazil. Random Forest was populated using field and lidar-derived forest metrics from 50 sample plots with trees ranging from three to nine years old. We found that a model defined as a function of only two metrics (height of the top of the canopy and the skewness of the vertical distribution of lidar points has a very strong and unbiased predictive power. We found that predictions of total, commercial, and pulp volume, respectively, showed an adjusted R2 equal to 0.98, 0.98 and 0.96, with unbiased predictions of −0.17%, −0.12% and −0.23%, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE values of 7.83%, 7.71% and 8.63%. Our methodology makes use of commercially available airborne lidar and widely used mathematical tools to provide solutions for increasing the industry efficiency in monitoring and managing wood volume.

Basal CD34+ Cell Count Predicts Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Mobilization in Healthy Donors after Administration of Granulocyte Colony-Stimulating Factor: A Longitudinal, Prospective, Observational, Single-Center, Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Martino, Massimo; Gori, Mercedes; Pitino, Annalisa; Gentile, Massimo; Dattola, Antonia; Pontari, Antonella; Vigna, Ernesto; Moscato, Tiziana; Recchia, Anna Grazia; Barilla', Santina; Tripepi, Giovanni; Morabito, Fortunato

2017-07-01

A longitudinal, prospective, observational, single-center, cohort study on healthy donors (HDs) was designed to identify predictors of CD34 + cells on day 5 with emphasis on the predictive value of the basal CD34 + cell count. As potential predictors of mobilization, age, sex, body weight, height, blood volume as well as white blood cell count, peripheral blood (PB) mononuclear cells, platelet count, hematocrit, and hemoglobin levels were considered. Two different evaluations of CD34 + cell counts were determined for each donor: baseline (before granulocyte colony-stimulating factor [G-CSF] administration) and in PB after G-CSF administration on the morning of the fifth day (day 5). A total of 128 consecutive HDs (66 males) with a median age of 43 years were enrolled. CD34 + levels on day 5 displayed a non-normal distribution, with a median value of 75.5 cells/µL. To account for the non-normal distribution of the dependent variable, a quantile regression analysis to predict CD34 + on day 5 using the baseline value of CD34 + as the key predictor was performed. On crude analysis, a baseline value of CD34 + ranging from .5 cells/µL to 1 cells/µL predicts a median value of 50 cells/µL on day 5; a value of 2 cells/µL predicts a median value of 70.7 cells/µL; a value of 3 cells/µL to 4 cells/µL predicts a median value of 91.3 cells/µL, and a value ≥ 5 predicts a median value of 112 cells/µL. In conclusion, the baseline PB CD34 + cell count correlates with the effectiveness of allogeneic PB stem cell mobilization and could be useful to plan the collection. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does dairy food intake predict arterial stiffness and blood pressure in men?: Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Livingstone, Katherine M; Lovegrove, Julie A; Cockcroft, John R; Elwood, Peter C; Pickering, Janet E; Givens, D Ian

2013-01-01

Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease events and mortality, and like blood pressure, may be influenced by dairy food intake. Few studies have investigated the effects of consumption of these foods on prospective measures of arterial stiffness. The present analysis aimed to investigate the prospective relationship between milk, cheese, cream, and butter consumption and aortic pulse wave velocity, augmentation index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, as well as cross-sectional relationships between these foods and systolic and diastolic blood pressure and metabolic markers using data from the Caerphilly Prospective Study. Included in this cohort were 2512 men, aged 45 to 59 years, who were followed up at 5-year intervals for a mean of 22.8 years (number follow-up 787). Augmentation index was 1.8% lower in subjects in the highest quartiles of dairy product intake compared with the lowest (P trend=0.021), whereas in the highest group of milk consumption systolic blood pressure was 10.4 mm Hg lower (P trend=0.033) than in nonmilk consumers after a 22.8-year follow-up. Cross-sectional analyses indicated that across increasing quartiles of butter intake, insulin (P trend=0.011), triacylglycerol (P trend=0.023), total cholesterol (P trend=0.002), and diastolic blood pressure (P trend=0.027) were higher. Across increasing groups of milk intake and quartiles of dairy product intake, glucose (P trend=0.032) and triglyceride concentrations (P trend=0.031) were lower, respectively. The present results confirm that consumption of milk predicts prospective blood pressure, whereas dairy product consumption, excluding butter, is not detrimental to arterial stiffness and metabolic markers. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms that underpin these relationships.

Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

2012-01-01

We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilaria Bordino

Full Text Available We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

Medida da freqüência respiratória e do volume corrente para prever a falha na extubação de recém-nascidos de muito baixo peso em ventilação mecânica Evaluation of respiratory rate and tidal volume to predict extubation failure in mechanically ventilated very low birth weight infants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josy Davidson

2008-03-01

Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Verificar se a freqüência respiratória (FR, o volume corrente (VC e a relação FR/VC poderiam prever a falha na extubação em recém-nascidos de muito baixo peso submetidos à ventilação mecânica. MÉTODOS: Estudo prospectivo, observacional, de recém-nascidos com idade gestacional OBJECTIVE: To verify if respiratory rate (RR, tidal volume (TV and respiratory rate and tidal volume ratio (RR/TV could predict extubation failure in very low birth weight infants submitted to mechanical ventilation. METHODS: This prospective observational study enrolled newborn infants with gestational age <37 weeks and birth weight <1,500g, mechanically ventilated from birth during 48 hours to 30 days and thought to be ready for extubation. As soon as the physicians decided for extubation, the neonates received endotracheal continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP for 10 minutes while spontaneous RR, TV and RR/TV were measured using a fixed-orifice pneumotachograph positioned between the endotracheal tube and the ventilator circuit. Thereafter, the neonates were extubated to nasal CPAP. Extubation failure was defined as the need for reintubation within 48 hours. RESULTS: Of the 35 studied infants, 20 (57% were successfully extubated and 15 (43% required reintubation. RR and RR/TV before extubation had a trend to be higher in unsuccessfully extubated infants. TV was similar in both groups. Sensitivity and specificity of these parameters as predictors of extubation failure were 50 and 67% respectively for RR, 40 and 67% for TV and 40 and 73% for RR/TV. CONCLUSIONS: RR, TV and RR/TV showed low sensitivity and specificity to predict extubation failure in mechanically ventilated very low birth weight infants.

Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Geller, Robert J.

I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

Validation of the cephalosporin intradermal skin test for predicting immediate hypersensitivity: a prospective study with drug challenge.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, S-Y; Park, S Y; Kim, S; Lee, T; Lee, Y S; Kwon, H-S; Cho, Y S; Moon, H-B; Kim, T-B

2013-07-01

Cephalosporin is a major offending agent in terms of drug hypersensitivity along with penicillin. Cephalosporin intradermal skin tests (IDTs) have been widely used; however, their validity for predicting immediate hypersensitivity has not been studied. This study aimed to determine the predictive value of cephalosporin intradermal skin testing before administration of the drug. We prospectively conducted IDTs with four cephalosporins, one each of selected first-, second-, third-, or fourth-generation cephalosporins: ceftezol; cefotetan or cefamandole; ceftriaxone or cefotaxime; and flomoxef, respectively, as well as with penicillin G. After the skin test, whatever the result, one of the tested cephalosporins was administered intravenously and the patient was carefully observed. We recruited 1421 patients who required preoperative cephalosporins. Seventy-four patients (74/1421, 5.2%) were positive to at least one cephalosporin. However, none of responders had immediate hypersensitivity reactions after a challenge dose of the same or different cephalosporin, which were positive in the skin test. Four patients who suffered generalized urticaria and itching after challenge gave negative skin tests for the corresponding drug. The IDT for cephalosporin had a sensitivity of 0%, a specificity of 97.5%, a negative predictive value of 99.7%, and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0%, when challenged with the same drugs that were positive in the skin test. Routine skin testing with a cephalosporin before its administration is not useful for predicting immediate hypersensitivity because of the extremely low sensitivity and PPV of the skin test (CRIS registration no. KCT0000455). © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Three-dimensional transvaginal sonographic assessment of uterine volume as preoperative predictor of need to morcellate in women undergoing laparoscopic hysterectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerges, B; Mongelli, M; Casikar, I; Bignardi, T; Condous, G

2017-08-01

In light of recent statements from the United States Food and Drug Administration warning against the use of power morcellation of uterine leiomyomas during laparoscopy, we sought to evaluate the use of preoperative two- (2D) and three- (3D) dimensional transvaginal ultrasound (US) assessment of uterine volume to predict the need for morcellation in women undergoing laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH). This was a prospective observational study performed between October 2008 and November 2011 in a tertiary referral laparoscopic unit. All women scheduled to undergo LH were included and underwent detailed preoperative transvaginal US. Uterine volumes were calculated using 2D-US measurements (ellipsoid formula), and using Virtual Organ Computer-aided AnaLysis (VOCAL™) having acquired 3D-US volumes of the uterus. Age, parity, need to morcellate and final uterine dry weight at histology were recorded. The estimated uterine volumes were then incorporated into a previously published logistic regression model to predict the need to morcellate for both nulliparous and parous women. The probability threshold cut-off of 0.14 (95% sensitivity) was evaluated in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and likelihood ratios (LRs). The performance of the models incorporating 2D- and 3D-US calculations were compared with 2D- and 3D-US-generated volumes alone, using receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Of 76 women who underwent LH during the study period, 79% (n = 60) had complete background and 3D-US data. Their mean age was 43.7 years, 91.7% were parous and 35% underwent morcellation. The greatest uterine volume that did not require morcellation was 404 mL estimated using 3D-US, which corresponded to a uterine volume of 688.8 mL using 2D-US. The smallest uterine volume that required morcellation was 118.9 mL using 3D-US, which corresponded to a uterine volume of 123.4 mL using 2D-US. The 3D-US uterine volume for

Does delivery volume of family physicians predict maternal and newborn outcome?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, M.C.; Spence, A.; Kaczorowski, J.; Kelly, A.; Grzybowski, S.

2002-01-01

The number of births attended by individual family physicians who practice intrapartum care varies. We wanted to determine if the practice-volume relations that have been shown in other fields of medical practice also exist in maternity care practice by family doctors. For the period April 1997 to August 1998, we analyzed all singleton births at a major maternity teaching hospital for which the family physician was the responsible physician. Physicians were grouped into 3 categories on the basis of the number of births they attended each year: fewer than 12, 12 to 24, and 25 or more. Physicians with a low volume of deliveries (72 physicians, 549 births), those with a medium volume of deliveries (34 physicians, 871 births) and those with a high volume of deliveries (46 physicians, 3024 births) were compared in terms of maternal and newborn outcomes. The main outcome measures were maternal morbidity, 5-minute Apgar score and admission of the baby to the neonatal intensive care unit or special care unit. Secondary outcomes were obstetric procedures and consultation patterns. There was no difference among the 3 volume cohorts in terms of rates of maternal complications of delivery, 5-minute Apgar scores of less than 7 or admissions to the neonatal intensive care unit or the special care unit, either before or after adjustment for parity, pregnancy-induced hypertension, diabetes, ethnicity, lone parent status, maternal age, gestational age, newborn birth weight and newborn head circumference at birth. High-and medium-volume family physicians consulted with obstetricians less often than low-volume family physicians (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.586 [95% confidence interval, CI, 0.479-0.718] and 0.739 [95% Cl 0.583-0.935] respectively). High-and medium-volume family physicians transferred the delivery to an obstetrician less often than low-volume family physicians (adjusted OR 0.668 [95% CI 0.542-0.823] and 0.776 [95% Cl 0.607-0.992] respectively). Inductions were performed

Does delivery volume of family physicians predict maternal and newborn outcome?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klein, M.C. [Children' s and Women' s Health Centre, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Univ. of British Columbia, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Spence, A. [Children' s and Women' s Health Centre, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Kaczorowski, J. [McMaster Univ., Depts. of Family Medicine and of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada); Kelly, A. [Children' s and Women' s Health Centre, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Univ. of British Columbia, Dept. of Health Care and Epidemiology, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Grzybowski, S. [Univ. of British Columbia, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada)

2002-05-01

The number of births attended by individual family physicians who practice intrapartum care varies. We wanted to determine if the practice-volume relations that have been shown in other fields of medical practice also exist in maternity care practice by family doctors. For the period April 1997 to August 1998, we analyzed all singleton births at a major maternity teaching hospital for which the family physician was the responsible physician. Physicians were grouped into 3 categories on the basis of the number of births they attended each year: fewer than 12, 12 to 24, and 25 or more. Physicians with a low volume of deliveries (72 physicians, 549 births), those with a medium volume of deliveries (34 physicians, 871 births) and those with a high volume of deliveries (46 physicians, 3024 births) were compared in terms of maternal and newborn outcomes. The main outcome measures were maternal morbidity, 5-minute Apgar score and admission of the baby to the neonatal intensive care unit or special care unit. Secondary outcomes were obstetric procedures and consultation patterns. There was no difference among the 3 volume cohorts in terms of rates of maternal complications of delivery, 5-minute Apgar scores of less than 7 or admissions to the neonatal intensive care unit or the special care unit, either before or after adjustment for parity, pregnancy-induced hypertension, diabetes, ethnicity, lone parent status, maternal age, gestational age, newborn birth weight and newborn head circumference at birth. High-and medium-volume family physicians consulted with obstetricians less often than low-volume family physicians (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.586 [95% confidence interval, CI, 0.479-0.718] and 0.739 [95% Cl 0.583-0.935] respectively). High-and medium-volume family physicians transferred the delivery to an obstetrician less often than low-volume family physicians (adjusted OR 0.668 [95% CI 0.542-0.823] and 0.776 [95% Cl 0.607-0.992] respectively). Inductions were performed

Transionospheric propagation predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Klobucher, J. A.; Basu, S.; Basu, S.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Davies, K.; Donatelli, D. E.; Fremouw, E. J.; Goodman, J. M.; Hartmann, G. K.; Leitinger, R.

1979-01-01

The current status and future prospects of the capability to make transionospheric propagation predictions are addressed, highlighting the effects of the ionized media, which dominate for frequencies below 1 to 3 GHz, depending upon the state of the ionosphere and the elevation angle through the Earth-space path. The primary concerns are the predictions of time delay of signal modulation (group path delay) and of radio wave scintillation. Progress in these areas is strongly tied to knowledge of variable structures in the ionosphere ranging from the large scale (thousands of kilometers in horizontal extent) to the fine scale (kilometer size). Ionospheric variability and the relative importance of various mechanisms responsible for the time histories observed in total electron content (TEC), proportional to signal group delay, and in irregularity formation are discussed in terms of capability to make both short and long term predictions. The data base upon which predictions are made is examined for its adequacy, and the prospects for prediction improvements by more theoretical studies as well as by increasing the available statistical data base are examined.

An analytical model to predict the volume of sand during drilling and production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raoof Gholami

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Sand production is an undesired phenomenon occurring in unconsolidated formations due to shear failure and hydrodynamic forces. There have been many approaches developed to predict sand production and prevent it by changing drilling or production strategies. However, assumptions involved in these approaches have limited their applications to very specific scenarios. In this paper, an elliptical model based on the borehole shape is presented to predict the volume of sand produced during the drilling and depletion stages of oil and gas reservoirs. A shape factor parameter is introduced to estimate the changes in the geometry of the borehole as a result of shear failure. A carbonate reservoir from the south of Iran with a solid production history is used to show the application of the developed methodology. Deriving mathematical equations for determination of the shape factor based on different failure criteria indicate that the effect of the intermediate principal stress should be taken into account to achieve an accurate result. However, it should be noticed that the methodology presented can only be used when geomechanical parameters are accurately estimated prior to the production stage when using wells and field data.

Dependence regulation in newlywed couples: A prospective examination.

Science.gov (United States)

Derrick, Jaye L; Leonard, Kenneth E; Homish, Gregory G

2012-12-01

According to the Risk Regulation Model (Murray, S. L., Holmes, J. G., & Collins, N. L. (2006). Optimizing assurance: The risk regulation system in relationships. Psychological Bulletin, 132 , 641-666), people need to trust in their partner's regard before they risk interdependence. The current study prospectively examines the association between perceived regard and levels of dependence in newlywed couples over nine years of marriage. Analyses demonstrate that changes in perceived regard predict levels of dependence, changes in dependence do not predict perceived regard, and alternative explanations cannot account for these effects. Further, changes in perceived regard prospectively predict divorce, and levels of dependence mediate this association. Results are discussed in terms of the dependence regulation component of the Risk Regulation Model.

White Matter Volume Predicts Language Development in Congenital Heart Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Rollins, Caitlin K; Asaro, Lisa A; Akhondi-Asl, Alireza; Kussman, Barry D; Rivkin, Michael J; Bellinger, David C; Warfield, Simon K; Wypij, David; Newburger, Jane W; Soul, Janet S

2017-02-01

To determine whether brain volume is reduced at 1 year of age and whether these volumes are associated with neurodevelopment in biventricular congenital heart disease (CHD) repaired in infancy. Infants with biventricular CHD (n = 48) underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neurodevelopmental testing with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development-II and the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventories at 1 year of age. A multitemplate based probabilistic segmentation algorithm was applied to volumetric MRI data. We compared volumes with those of 13 healthy control infants of comparable ages. In the group with CHD, we measured Spearman correlations between neurodevelopmental outcomes and the residuals from linear regression of the volumes on corrected chronological age at MRI and sex. Compared with controls, infants with CHD had reductions of 54 mL in total brain (P = .009), 40 mL in cerebral white matter (P Development-II scores but did correlate positively with MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventory language development. Infants with biventricular CHD show total brain volume reductions at 1 year of age, driven by differences in cerebral white matter. White matter volume correlates with language development, but not broader developmental indices. These findings suggest that abnormalities in white matter development detected months after corrective heart surgery may contribute to language impairment. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00006183. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The predictive value of preoperative perfusion/ventilation scintigraphy, spirometry and x-ray of the lungs on postoperative pulmonary complications. A prospective study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fogh, J.; Wille-Joergensen, P.; Brynjolf, I.; Thorup, J.; Joergensen, T.; Bording, L.; Kjaergaard, J.

1987-01-01

Prospectively, 125 patients were examined with 99m Tc-perfusion scintigraphy, 89m Kr- or 127 Xe-ventilation scintigraphy and chest radiogram prior to major surgery. Postoperative therapy-demanding pulmonary complications occurred in 18% of the patients. A statistical association could be demonstrated between all the preoperative tests except ventilation scintigraphy and the frequency of complications. However, the predictive values of each of the tests, or even the combined results, were not significantly different from the frequency of complications among all the patients. It is concluded that the predictive values of perfusion-and ventilation scintigraphy, spirometry and radiogram of the chest are too low to be of any practical use. (author)

COMPARISON OF THORACIC ULTRASONOGRAPHY AND RADIOGRAPHY FOR THE DETECTION OF INDUCED SMALL VOLUME PNEUMOTHORAX IN THE HORSE.

Science.gov (United States)

Partlow, Jessica; David, Florent; Hunt, Luanne Michelle; Relave, Fabien; Blond, Laurent; Pinilla, Manuel; Lavoie, Jean-Pierre

2017-05-01

Small volume pneumothorax can be challenging to diagnose in horses. The current standard method for diagnosis is standing thoracic radiography. We hypothesized that thoracic ultrasonography would be more sensitive. Objectives of this prospective, experimental study were to describe a thoracic ultrasound method for detection of small volume pneumothorax in horses and to compare results of radiography and ultrasound in a sample of horses with induced small volume pneumothorax. Six mature healthy horses were recruited for this study. For each horse, five 50 ml air boluses were sequentially introduced via a teat cannula into the pleural space. Lateral thoracic radiographs and standardized ultrasound (2D and M-mode) examinations of both hemithoraces were performed following administration of each 50 ml air bolus. Radiographs and ultrasound images/videos were analyzed for detection of pneumothorax by four independent investigators who were unaware of treatment status. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, negative predictive values, and agreement among investigators (Kappa test, κ) were calculated for radiography, 2D and M-mode ultrasound. Comparisons were made using a chi-squared exact test with significance set at P pneumothorax detection (P = 0.02 and P = 0.04, respectively). Specificity and positive predictive values were similar for all three imaging modalities (P = 1). Agreement between investigators for pneumothorax detection was excellent for 2D ultrasound (κ = 1), very good for M-mode ultrasound (κ = 0.87), and good for radiography (κ = 0.79). Findings from this experimental study supported the use of thoracic ultrasonography as a diagnostic method for detecting pneumothorax in horses. © 2017 American College of Veterinary Radiology.

A prediction rule for shoulder pain related sick leave: a prospective cohort study

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van der Heijden Geert JMG

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Shoulder pain is common in primary care, and has an unfavourable outcome in many patients. Information about predictors of shoulder pain related sick leave in workers is scarce and inconsistent. The objective was to develop a clinical prediction rule for calculating the risk of shoulder pain related sick leave for individual workers, during the 6 months following first consultation in general practice. Methods A prospective cohort study with 6 months follow-up was conducted among 350 workers with a new episode of shoulder pain. Potential predictors included the results of a physical examination, sociodemographic variables, disease characteristics (duration of symptoms, sick leave in the 2 months prior to consultation, pain intensity, disability, comorbidity, physical activity, physical work load, psychological factors, and the psychosocial work environment. The main outcome measure was sick leave during 6 months following first consultation in general practice. Results Response rate to the follow-up questionnaire at 6 months was 85%. During the 6 months after first consultation 30% (89/298 of the workers reported sick leave. 16% (47 reported 10 days sick leave or more. Sick leave during this period was predicted in a multivariable model by a longer duration of sick leave prior to consultation, more shoulder pain, a perceived cause of strain or overuse during regular activities, and co-existing psychological complaints. The discriminative ability of the prediction model was satisfactory with an area under the curve of 0.70 (95% CI 0.64–0.76. Conclusion Although 30% of all workers with shoulder pain reported sick leave during follow-up, the duration of sick leave was limited to a few days in most workers. We developed a prediction rule and a score chart that can be used by general practitioners and occupational health care providers to calculate the absolute risk of sick leave in individual workers with shoulder pain, which

Metallogenetic prospecting prediction of volcanic rock type of uranium deposit in Pucheng Area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao Bin; Wang Yong

1998-01-01

Based on the metallogenetic geological conditions of Pucheng area, metallogenetic geological model existing and the information quality method, the logic vector length method and the logic vector length weighted method, some favorable geological variance are selected. The assessment model is set up and some favorable metallogenetic area are delineated according to the different contribution degrees of the geological variances to mineralization. By geological assessment in the favorable metallogenetic areas, it is considered that the favorable metallogenetic geological conditions exist in this areas, and there are prospecting prospective surroundings areas and glorious prospecting future were confirmed in the district

The minimum knowledge base for predicting organ-at-risk dose-volume levels and plan-related complications in IMRT planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Hao H; D'Souza, Warren D; Meyer, Robert R; Shi Leyuan

2010-01-01

IMRT treatment planning requires consideration of two competing objectives: achieving the required amount of radiation for the planning target volume and minimizing the amount of radiation delivered to all other tissues. It is important for planners to understand the tradeoff between competing factors so that the time-consuming human interaction loop (plan-evaluate-modify) can be eliminated. Treatment-plan-surface models have been proposed as a decision support tool to aid treatment planners and clinicians in choosing between rival treatment plans in a multi-plan environment. In this paper, an empirical approach is introduced to determine the minimum number of treatment plans (minimum knowledge base) required to build accurate representations of the IMRT plan surface in order to predict organ-at-risk (OAR) dose-volume (DV) levels and complications as a function of input DV constraint settings corresponding to all involved OARs in the plan. We have tested our approach on five head and neck patients and five whole pelvis/prostate patients. Our results suggest that approximately 30 plans were sufficient to predict DV levels with less than 3% relative error in both head and neck and whole pelvis/prostate cases. In addition, approximately 30-60 plans were sufficient to predict saliva flow rate with less than 2% relative error and to classify rectal bleeding with an accuracy of 90%.

Prospect theory does not describe the feedback-related negativity value function.

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Sambrook, Thomas D; Roser, Matthew; Goslin, Jeremy

2012-12-01

Humans handle uncertainty poorly. Prospect theory accounts for this with a value function in which possible losses are overweighted compared to possible gains, and the marginal utility of rewards decreases with size. fMRI studies have explored the neural basis of this value function. A separate body of research claims that prediction errors are calculated by midbrain dopamine neurons. We investigated whether the prospect theoretic effects shown in behavioral and fMRI studies were present in midbrain prediction error coding by using the feedback-related negativity, an ERP component believed to reflect midbrain prediction errors. Participants' stated satisfaction with outcomes followed prospect theory but their feedback-related negativity did not, instead showing no effect of marginal utility and greater sensitivity to potential gains than losses. Copyright © 2012 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Prediction of acute cardiac rejection by changes in left ventricular volumes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novitzky, D.; Cooper, D.K.; Boniaszczuk, J.

1988-01-01

Sixteen patients underwent heart transplantation (11 orthotopic, five heterotopic). Monitoring for acute rejection was by both endomyocardial biopsy (EMB) and multigated equilibrium blood pool scanning with technetium 99m-labelled red blood cells. From the scans information was obtained on left ventricular volumes (stroke, end-diastolic, and end-systolic), ejection fraction, and heart rate. Studies (208) were made in the 16 patients. There was a highly significant correlation between the reduction in stroke volume and end-diastolic volume (and a less significant correlation in end-systolic volume) and increasing acute rejection seen on EMB. Heart rate and ejection fraction did not correlate with the development of acute rejection. Correlation of a combination of changes in stroke volume and end-diastolic volume with EMB showed a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 96%. Radionuclide scanning is therefore a useful noninvasive tool for monitoring acute rejection

Modeling radiation dosimetry to predict cognitive outcomes in pediatric patients with CNS embryonal tumors including medulloblastoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merchant, Thomas E.; Kiehna, Erin N.; Li Chenghong; Shukla, Hemant; Sengupta, Saikat; Xiong Xiaoping; Gajjar, Amar; Mulhern, Raymond K.

2006-01-01

Purpose: Model the effects of radiation dosimetry on IQ among pediatric patients with central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Methods and Materials: Pediatric patients with CNS embryonal tumors (n = 39) were prospectively evaluated with serial cognitive testing, before and after treatment with postoperative, risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation (CSI) and conformal primary-site irradiation, followed by chemotherapy. Differential dose-volume data for 5 brain volumes (total brain, supratentorial brain, infratentorial brain, and left and right temporal lobes) were correlated with IQ after surgery and at follow-up by use of linear regression. Results: When the dose distribution was partitioned into 2 levels, both had a significantly negative effect on longitudinal IQ across all 5 brain volumes. When the dose distribution was partitioned into 3 levels (low, medium, and high), exposure to the supratentorial brain appeared to have the most significant impact. For most models, each Gy of exposure had a similar effect on IQ decline, regardless of dose level. Conclusions: Our results suggest that radiation dosimetry data from 5 brain volumes can be used to predict decline in longitudinal IQ. Despite measures to reduce radiation dose and treatment volume, the volume that receives the highest dose continues to have the greatest effect, which supports current volume-reduction efforts

The interaction between self-regulation and motivation prospectively predicting problem behavior in adolescence.

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Rhodes, Jessica D; Colder, Craig R; Trucco, Elisa M; Speidel, Carolyn; Hawk, Larry W; Lengua, Liliana J; Das Eiden, Rina; Wieczorek, William

2013-01-01

A large literature suggests associations between self-regulation and motivation and adolescent problem behavior; however, this research has mostly pitted these constructs against one another or tested them in isolation. Following recent neural-systems based theories (e.g., Ernst & Fudge, 2009 ), the present study investigated the interactions between self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation prospectively predicting delinquency and depressive symptoms in early adolescence. The community sample included 387 adolescents aged 11 to 13 years old (55% female; 17% minority). Laboratory tasks were used to assess self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation, and adolescent self-reports were used to measure depressive symptoms and delinquency. Analyses suggested that low levels of approach motivation were associated with high levels of depressive symptoms, but only at high levels of self-regulation (p = .01). High levels of approach were associated with high levels of rule breaking, but only at low levels of self-regulation (p theories that posit integration of motivational and self-regulatory individual differences via moderational models to understand adolescent problem behavior.

Effect of large volume paracentesis on plasma volume--a cause of hypovolemia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kao, H.W.; Rakov, N.E.; Savage, E.; Reynolds, T.B.

1985-01-01

Large volume paracentesis, while effectively relieving symptoms in patients with tense ascites, has been generally avoided due to reports of complications attributed to an acute reduction in intravascular volume. Measurements of plasma volume in these subjects have been by indirect methods and have not uniformly confirmed hypovolemia. We have prospectively evaluated 18 patients (20 paracenteses) with tense ascites and peripheral edema due to chronic liver disease undergoing 5 liter paracentesis for relief of symptoms. Plasma volume pre- and postparacentesis was assessed by a 125 I-labeled human serum albumin dilution technique as well as by the change in hematocrit and postural blood pressure difference. No significant change in serum sodium, urea nitrogen, hematocrit or postural systolic blood pressure difference was noted at 24 or 48 hr after paracentesis. Serum creatinine at 24 hr after paracentesis was unchanged but a small but statistically significant increase in serum creatinine was noted at 48 hr postparacentesis. Plasma volume changed -2.7% (n = 6, not statistically significant) during the first 24 hr and -2.8% (n = 12, not statistically significant) during the 0- to 48-hr period. No complications from paracentesis were noted. These results suggest that 5 liter paracentesis for relief of symptoms is safe in patients with tense ascites and peripheral edema from chronic liver disease

Temporal lobe volume predicts Wada memory test performance in patients with mesial temporal sclerosis.

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Ding, Kan; Gong, Yunhua; Modur, Pradeep N; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; Agostini, Mark; Gupta, Puneet; McColl, Roderick; Hays, Ryan; Van Ness, Paul

2016-02-01

The Wada test is widely used in the presurgical evaluation of potential temporal lobectomy patients to predict postoperative memory function. Expected asymmetry (EA), defined as Wada memory lateralized to the nonsurgical hemisphere, or a higher score after injection of the surgical hemisphere would be considered favorable in terms of postoperative memory outcome. However, in some cases, nonlateralized memory (NM) results, with no appreciable asymmetry, may occur because of impaired scores after both injections, often leading to denial of surgery. The reason for such nonlateralized Wada memory in patients with intractable temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) remains unclear. Given that quantitative morphometric magnetic resonance imaging studies in TLE patients have shown bilateral regional atrophy in temporal and extratemporal structures, we hypothesized that the volume loss in contralateral temporal structures could contribute to nonlateralized Wada memory performance. To investigate this, we examined the relationship between the volume changes of temporal structures and Wada memory scores in patients with intractable TLE with mesial temporal sclerosis (MTS) using an age- and gender-matched control group. Memory was considered nonlateralized if the absolute difference in the total correct recall scores between ipsilateral and contralateral injections was memory was lateralized in 15 and nonlateralized in 6 patients, with all the nonlateralized scores being observed in left TLE. The recall scores after ipsilateral injection were significantly lower in patients with an NM profile than an EA profile (23 ± 14% vs. 59 ± 18% correct recall, p ≤ 0.001). However, the recall scores after contralateral injection were low but similar between the two groups (25 ± 17% vs. 25 ± 15% correct recall, p=0.97). Compared to controls, all the patients showed greater volume loss in the temporal regions. However, patients with a NM profile showed significantly more volume loss than those

Body dissatisfaction prospectively predicts depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys.

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Paxton, Susan J; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J; Eisenberg, Marla E

2006-12-01

This research examined whether body dissatisfaction prospectively predicted depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys 5 years later. Participants were early-adolescent girls (n = 440, Time 1 M age = 12.7 years) and boys (n = 366, Time 1 M age = 12.8 years) and midadolescent girls (n = 946, Time 1 M age = 15.8 years) and boys (n = 764, Time 1 M age = 15.9 years). After controlling for Time 1 of the relevant dependent variable, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and body mass index, Time 1 body dissatisfaction was a unique predictor of Time 2 depressive mood and low self-esteem in early-adolescent girls (depressive mood: F = 4.80, p self-esteem: F = 9.64, p p self-esteem: F = 9.38, p low self-esteem in both girls and boys but in different phases of adolescence.

Predictive value of radioculography in patients with lumbago-sciatica. A prospective study (part 2)

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Espersen, J.O.; Kosteljanetz, M. (University Hospital, Aarhus (Denmark). Dept. of Neurosurgery); Halaburt, H.; Miletic, T. (University Hospital, Aarhus (Denmark). Dept. of Neuroradiology)

1984-01-01

One hundred patients with symptoms of lumbo-sacral root compression were prospectively and consecutively assigned to operation based alone on clinical findings. A preoperative myelogram was performed in all patients and described without a knowledge of the clinical features. All patients were explored for the clinically and myelographically relevant disc. When the myelogram was normal (16 patients) both lower lumbar interspaces were exposed. In 58 patients a herniated disc was revealed at surgery. Only 'myelographic herniation' with indentation of the contrast column was accompanied by a high frequency of disc herniation at surgery (73-87%). In cases with normal myelograms only 5% had a disc herniation. The severity of the myelographic finding was clearly correlated to the frequency of positive surgical findings and good outcomes. The preoperative radiculogram gives a high degree of certainty in the preoperative evaluation whether a surgical lesion is present or not and reveals a precise prediction of the outcome of surgery.

Autologous fibrin sealant reduces the incidence of prolonged air leak and duration of chest tube drainage after lung volume reduction surgery: a prospective randomized blinded study.

Science.gov (United States)

Moser, C; Opitz, I; Zhai, W; Rousson, V; Russi, E W; Weder, W; Lardinois, D

2008-10-01

Prolonged air leak is reported in up to 50% of patients after lung volume reduction surgery. The effect of an autologous fibrin sealant on the intensity and duration of air leak and on the time to chest drain removal after lung volume reduction surgery was investigated in a randomized prospective clinical trial. Twenty-five patients underwent bilateral thoracoscopic lung volume reduction surgery. In each patient, an autologous fibrin sealant was applied along the staple lines on one side, whereas no additional measure was taken on the other side. Randomization of treatment was performed at the end of the resection on the first side. Air leak was assessed semiquantitatively by use of a severity score (0 = no leak; 4 = continuous severe leak) by two investigators blinded to the treatment. Mean value of the total severity scores for the first 48 hours postoperative was significantly lower in the treated group (4.7 +/- 7.7) than in the control group (16.0 +/- 10.1) (P drainage were also significantly reduced after application of the sealant (4.5% and 2.8 +/- 1.9 days versus 31.8% and 5.9 +/- 2.9 days) (P = .03 and P drainage.

Prospective validation of immunological infiltrate for prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in HER2-negative breast cancer--a substudy of the neoadjuvant GeparQuinto trial.

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Issa-Nummer, Yasmin; Darb-Esfahani, Silvia; Loibl, Sibylle; Kunz, Georg; Nekljudova, Valentina; Schrader, Iris; Sinn, Bruno Valentin; Ulmer, Hans-Ullrich; Kronenwett, Ralf; Just, Marianne; Kühn, Thorsten; Diebold, Kurt; Untch, Michael; Holms, Frank; Blohmer, Jens-Uwe; Habeck, Jörg-Olaf; Dietel, Manfred; Overkamp, Friedrich; Krabisch, Petra; von Minckwitz, Gunter; Denkert, Carsten

2013-01-01

We have recently described an increased lymphocytic infiltration rate in breast carcinoma tissue is a significant response predictor for anthracycline/taxane-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). The aim of this study was to prospectively validate the tumor-associated lymphocyte infiltrate as predictive marker for response to anthracycline/taxane-based NACT. The immunological infiltrate was prospectively evaluated in a total of 313 core biopsies from HER2 negative patients of the multicenter PREDICT study, a substudy of the neoadjuvant GeparQuinto study. Intratumoral lymphocytes (iTuLy), stromal lymphocytes (strLy) as well as lymphocyte-predominant breast cancer (LPBC) were evaluated by histopathological assessment. Pathological complete response (pCR) rates were analyzed and compared between the defined subgroups using the exact test of Fisher. Patients with lymphocyte-predominant breast cancer (LPBC) had a significantly increased pCR rate of 36.6%, compared to non-LPBC patients (14.3%, pimmunological infiltrate in breast tumor tissue is predictive for response to anthracycline/taxane-based NACT. Patients with LPBC and increased stromal lymphocyte infiltration have significantly increased pCR rates. The lymphocytic infiltrate is a promising additional parameter for histopathological evaluation of breast cancer core biopsies.

Low Transvalvular Flow Rate Predicts Mortality in Patients With Low-Gradient Aortic Stenosis Following Aortic Valve Intervention.

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Vamvakidou, Anastasia; Jin, Wenying; Danylenko, Oleksandr; Chahal, Navtej; Khattar, Rajdeep; Senior, Roxy

2018-03-09

This study aimed to assess the value of low transvalvular flow rate (FR) for the prediction of mortality compared with low stroke volume index (SVi) in patients with low-gradient (mean gradient: gradient AS who had undergone valve intervention. We retrospectively followed prospectively assessed consecutive patients with low-gradient, low aortic valve area AS who underwent aortic valve intervention between 2010 and 2014 for all-cause mortality. Of the 218 patients with mean age 75 ± 12 years, 102 (46.8%) had low stroke volume index (SVi) (gradient, low valve area aortic stenosis undergoing aortic valve intervention, low FR, not low SVi, was an independent predictor of medium-term mortality. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What Factors are Predictive of Patient-reported Outcomes? A Prospective Study of 337 Shoulder Arthroplasties.

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Matsen, Frederick A; Russ, Stacy M; Vu, Phuong T; Hsu, Jason E; Lucas, Robert M; Comstock, Bryan A

2016-11-01

Although shoulder arthroplasties generally are effective in improving patients' comfort and function, the results are variable for reasons that are not well understood. We posed two questions: (1) What factors are associated with better 2-year outcomes after shoulder arthroplasty? (2) What are the sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values of a multivariate predictive model for better outcome? Three hundred thirty-nine patients having a shoulder arthroplasty (hemiarthroplasty, arthroplasty for cuff tear arthropathy, ream and run arthroplasty, total shoulder or reverse total shoulder arthroplasty) between August 24, 2010 and December 31, 2012 consented to participate in this prospective study. Two patients were excluded because they were missing baseline variables. Forty-three patients were missing 2-year data. Univariate and multivariate analyses determined the relationship of baseline patient, shoulder, and surgical characteristics to a "better" outcome, defined as an improvement of at least 30% of the maximal possible improvement in the Simple Shoulder Test. The results were used to develop a predictive model, the accuracy of which was tested using a 10-fold cross-validation. After controlling for potentially relevant confounding variables, the multivariate analysis showed that the factors significantly associated with better outcomes were American Society of Anesthesiologists Class I (odds ratio [OR], 1.94; 95% CI, 1.03-3.65; p = 0.041), shoulder problem not related to work (OR, 5.36; 95% CI, 2.15-13.37; p factors listed above. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve generated from the cross-validated enhanced predictive model was 0.79 (generally values of 0.7 to 0.8 are considered fair and values of 0.8 to 0.9 are considered good). The false-positive fraction and the true-positive fraction depended on the cutoff probability selected (ie, the selected probability above which the prediction would be classified as

Sleep disturbances predict prospective declines in resident physicians’ psychological well-being

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alice A. Min

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Background: Medical residency can be a time of increased psychological stress and sleep disturbance. We examine the prospective associations between self-reported sleep quality and resident wellness across a single training year. Methods: Sixty-nine (N=69 resident physicians completed the Brief Resident Wellness Profile (M=17.66, standard deviation [SD]=3.45, range: 0–17 and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (M=6.22, SD=2.86, range: 12–25 at multiple occasions in a single training year. We examined the 1-month lagged effect of sleep disturbances on residents’ self-reported wellness. Results: Accounting for residents’ overall level of sleep disturbance across the entire study period, both the concurrent (within-person within-occasion effect of sleep disturbance (B=−0.20, standard error [SE]=0.06, p=0.003, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.33, −0.07 and the lagged within-person effect of resident sleep disturbance (B=−0.15, SE=0.07, p=0.037, 95% CI: −0.29, −0.009 were significant predictors of decreased resident wellness. Increases in sleep disturbances are a leading indicator of resident wellness, predicting decreased well-being 1 month later. Conclusions: Sleep quality exerts a significant effect on self-reported resident wellness. Periodic evaluation of sleep quality may alert program leadership and the residents themselves to impending decreases in psychological well-being.

The prediction of radiofrequency ablation zone volume using vascular indices of 3-dimensional volumetric colour Doppler ultrasound in an in vitro blood-perfused bovine liver model

Science.gov (United States)

Lanctot, Anthony C; McCarter, Martin D; Roberts, Katherine M; Glueck, Deborah H; Dodd, Gerald D

2017-01-01

Objective: To determine the most reliable predictor of radiofrequency (RF) ablation zone volume among three-dimensional (3D) volumetric colour Doppler vascular indices in an in vitro blood-perfused bovine liver model. Methods: 3D colour Doppler volume data of the local hepatic parenchyma were acquired from 37 areas of 13 bovine livers connected to an in vitro oxygenated blood perfusion system. Doppler vascular indices of vascularization index (VI), flow index (FI) and vascularization flow index (VFI) were obtained from the volume data using 3D volume analysis software. 37 RF ablations were performed at the same locations where the ultrasound data were obtained from. The relationship of these vascular indices and the ablation zone volumes measured from gross specimens were analyzed using a general linear mixed model fit with random effect for liver and backward stepwise regression analysis. Results: FI was significantly associated with ablation zone volumes measured on gross specimens (p = 0.0047), but explained little of the variance (Rβ2 = 0.21). Ablation zone volume decreased by 0.23 cm3 (95% confidence interval: −0.38, −0.08) for every 1 increase in FI. Neither VI nor VFI was significantly associated with ablation zone volumes (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Although FI was associated with ablation zone volumes, it could not sufficiently explain their variability, limiting its clinical applicability. VI, FI and VFI are not clinically useful in the prediction of RF ablation zone volume in the liver. Advances in knowledge: Despite a significant association of FI with ablation zone volumes, VI, FI and VFI cannot be used for their prediction. Different Doppler vascular indices need to be investigated for clinical use. PMID:27925468

Dose-volume effect relationships for late rectal morbidity in patients treated with chemoradiation and MRI-guided adaptive brachytherapy for locally advanced cervical cancer: Results from the prospective multicenter EMBRACE study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mazeron, Renaud; Fokdal, Lars U; Kirchheiner, Kathrin

2016-01-01

Purpose To establish dose volume–effect relationships predicting late rectal morbidity in cervix cancer patients treated with concomitant chemoradiation and MRI-guided adaptive brachytherapy (IBABT) within the prospective EMBRACE study. Material and method All patients were treated with curative ...

Transcranial Duplex Sonography Predicts Outcome following an Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Camps-Renom, P; Méndez, J; Granell, E; Casoni, F; Prats-Sánchez, L; Martínez-Domeño, A; Guisado-Alonso, D; Martí-Fàbregas, J; Delgado-Mederos, R

2017-08-01

Several radiologic features such as hematoma volume are related to poor outcome following an intracerebral hemorrhage and can be measured with transcranial duplex sonography. We sought to determine the prognostic value of transcranial duplex sonography in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. We conducted a prospective study of patients diagnosed with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. Transcranial duplex sonography examinations were performed within 2 hours of baseline CT, and we recorded the following variables: hematoma volume, midline shift, third ventricle and lateral ventricle diameters, and the pulsatility index in both MCAs. We correlated these data with the CT scans and assessed the prognostic value of the transcranial duplex sonography measurements. We assessed early neurologic deterioration during hospitalization and mortality at 1-month follow-up. We included 35 patients with a mean age of 72.2 ± 12.8 years. Median baseline hematoma volume was 9.85 mL (interquartile range, 2.74-68.29 mL). We found good agreement and excellent correlation between transcranial duplex sonography and CT when measuring hematoma volume ( r = 0.791; P duplex sonography measurements showed that hematoma volume was an independent predictor of early neurologic deterioration (OR, 1.078; 95% CI, 1.023-1.135) and mortality (OR, 1.089; 95% CI, 1.020-1.160). A second regression analysis with CT variables also demonstrated that hematoma volume was associated with early neurologic deterioration and mortality. When we compared the rating operation curves of both models, their predictive power was similar. Transcranial duplex sonography showed an excellent correlation with CT in assessing hematoma volume and midline shift in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. Hematoma volume measured with transcranial duplex sonography was an independent predictor of poor outcome. © 2017 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Functional Performances on Admission Predict In-Hospital Falls, Injurious Falls, and Fractures in Older Patients: A Prospective Study.

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Hars, Mélany; Audet, Marie-Claude; Herrmann, François; De Chassey, Jean; Rizzoli, René; Reny, Jean-Luc; Gold, Gabriel; Ferrari, Serge; Trombetti, Andrea

2018-05-01

Falls are common among older inpatients and remain a great challenge for hospitals. Despite the relevance of physical impairments to falls, the prognostic value of performance-based functional measures for in-hospital falls and injurious falls remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the predictive ability and accuracy of various functional tests administered at or close to admission in a geriatric hospital to identify in-hospital fallers and injurious fallers. In this prospective study, conducted in a geriatric hospital in Geneva, Switzerland, 807 inpatients (mean age 85.0 years) were subjected to a battery of functional tests administered by physiotherapists within 3 days (interquartile range 1 to 6) of admission, including Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), simplified Tinetti, and Timed Up and Go tests. Patients were prospectively followed up for falls and injurious falls until discharge using mandatory standardized incident report forms and electronic patients' records. During a median length of hospital stay of 23 days (interquartile range 14 to 36), 329 falls occurred in 189 (23.4%) patients, including 161 injurious falls of which 24 were serious. In-hospital fallers displayed significantly poorer functional performances at admission on all tests compared with non-fallers (p performances on all functional tests predicted in-hospital falls and injurious falls (p poor functional performances, as assessed by SPPB, are independent predictors of in-hospital falls, injurious falls, and fractures in patients admitted to a geriatric hospital. These findings should help to design preventive strategies for in-hospital falls and support the adoption of objective performance-based functional measures into routine hospital practice. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Does message framing predict willingness to participate in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial: an application of Prospect Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Evangeli, Michael; Kafaar, Zuhayr; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie; Bullemor-Day, Philippa

2013-01-01

It is vital that enough participants are willing to participate in clinical trials to test HIV vaccines adequately. It is, therefore, necessary to explore what affects peoples' willingness to participate (WTP) in such trials. Studies have only examined individual factors associated with WTP and not the effect of messages about trial participation on potential participants (e.g., whether losses or gains are emphasized, or whether the outcome is certain or uncertain). This study explores whether the effects of message framing on WTP in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial are consistent with Prospect Theory. This theory suggests that people are fundamentally risk averse and that (1) under conditions of low risk and high certainty, gain-framed messages will be influential (2) under conditions of high risk and low certainty, loss-framed messages will be influential. This cross-sectional study recruited 283 HIV-negative students from a South African university who were given a questionnaire that contained matched certain gain-framed, certain loss-framed, uncertain gain-framed, and uncertain loss-framed statements based on common barriers and facilitators of WTP. Participants were asked to rate how likely each statement was to result in their participation in a hypothetical preventative HIV vaccine trial. Consistent with Prospect Theory predictions, for certain outcomes, gain-framed messages were more likely to result in WTP than loss-framed messages. Inconsistent with predictions, loss-framed message were not more likely to be related to WTP for uncertain outcomes than gain-framed messages. Older students were less likely to express their WTP across the different message frames. Recruitment for HIV vaccine trials should pay attention to how messages about the trial are presented to potential participants.

Predicting Volume and Biomass Change from Multi-Temporal Lidar Sampling and Remeasured Field Inventory Data in Panther Creek Watershed, Oregon, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krishna P. Poudel

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Using lidar for large-scale forest management can improve operational and management decisions. Using multi-temporal lidar sampling and remeasured field inventory data collected from 78 plots in the Panther Creek Watershed, Oregon, USA, we evaluated the performance of different fixed and mixed models in estimating change in aboveground biomass ( ∆ AGB and cubic volume including top and stump ( ∆ CVTS over a five-year period. Actual values of CVTS and AGB were obtained using newly fitted volume and biomass equations or the equations used by the Pacific Northwest unit of the Forest Inventory and Analysis program. Estimates of change based on fixed and mixed-effect linear models were more accurate than change estimates based on differences in LIDAR-based estimates. This may have been due to the compounding of errors in LIDAR-based estimates over the two time periods. Models used to predict volume and biomass at a given time were, however, more precise than the models used to predict change. Models used to estimate ∆ CVTS were not as accurate as the models employed to estimate ∆ AGB . Final models had cross-validation root mean squared errors as low as 40.90% for ∆ AGB and 54.36% for ∆ CVTS .

Impact of Case Volume on Outcomes of Ureteroscopy for Ureteral Stones

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kandasami, Sangam V; Mamoulakis, Charalampos; El-Nahas, Ahmed R

2014-01-01

of case volume on the outcomes of URS for ureteral stones. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The URS Global Study collected prospective data on consecutive patients with urinary stones treated with URS at 114 centres worldwide for 1 yr. Centres were identified as low or high volume based on the median...... overall annual case volume. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Pre- and intraoperative characteristics, and postoperative outcomes in patients at low- and high-volume centres were compared. The relationships between case volume and stone-free rate (SFR), stone burden, complications...... SFR was 91.9% and 86.3% at high- and low-volume centres, respectively (pstone-free outcome increased with increasing case volume (p

The accurate definition of metabolic volumes on 18F-FDG-PET before treatment allows the response to chemoradiotherapy to be predicted in the case of oesophagus cancers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatt, M.; Cheze-Le Rest, C.; Visvikis, D.; Pradier, O.

2011-01-01

This study aims at assessing the possibility of prediction of the response of locally advanced oesophagus cancers, even before the beginning of treatment, by using metabolic volume measurements performed on 18 F-FDG PET images made before the treatment. Medical files of 50 patients have been analyzed. According to the observed responses, and to metabolic volume and Total Lesion Glycosis (TLG) values, it appears that the images allow the extraction of parameters, such as the TLG, which are criteria for the prediction of the therapeutic response. Short communication

Energy prospects of France at the 2020-2050 vista. Report of the Energy Commission presided over by Jean Syrota - Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

This book makes a synthesis of the works carried out by the Energy commission, implemented in May 2006 by the Centre of Strategic Analysis and gathering the different actors in concern: representatives, social partners, national and European administrations, operators and industrialists, consumer associations, research organizations, etc.. A second volume is available which gathers the integrality of the five working group reports. This collective work fits inside a series of studies that the public authorities have periodically launched on the energy question. They have led to the elaboration of energy policies, still dominated by the hydrocarbon prices: ambitious and rigorous during high price eras, non-obstructive and relaxed during low price eras. Todays, the global warming dominates the energy policy. In this context, a large-scale and permanent new policy has become mandatory to reduce as quickly as possible the CO 2 emissions linked to the satisfaction of energy needs. It must definitely fit with the European framework as well. The Energy Commission recommends that France prevails upon the European Union to adopt a highly voluntaristic policy of greenhouse gases abatement at the 2050 prospects based on a fair share among the member states of the efforts to be achieved. This document includes a prospective analysis of the geopolitical situation, evaluates the technological efforts to come and lists some consistent action proposals for France and the European and national scale. (J.S.)

The prospective uses of solar energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masi, M.; Carra, S.

2007-01-01

Some aspects inherent the prospective uses of solar energy as renewable energy source are here addressed with particular reference to the technical and economical aspects affecting its use of today and tomorrow. It emerges that neither technical nor availability limitation exist for the extensive use of that primary energy source, but only limitations of economical nature that are indeed under resolution with the installation volumes increase [it

Impact of institutional volume and experience with CT interpretation on sizing of transcatheter aortic valves: A multicenter retrospective study

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Verma, Divya Ratan [Cardiovascular Institute, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (United States); Division of Interventional Cardiology, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (United States); Pershad, Yash [Department of Radiology, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (United States); Pershad, Ashish [Cardiovascular Institute, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (United States); Division of Interventional Cardiology, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (United States); Fang, Kenith [Cardiovascular Institute, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (United States); Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (United States); Gellert, George [Cardiovascular Institute, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (United States); Department of Anesthesiology, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (United States); Morris, Michael F., E-mail: mfmorris@mail.arizona.edu [Cardiovascular Institute, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (United States); Department of Radiology, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (United States)

2016-12-15

Background: Computed tomography (CT) has become the standard imaging modality for pre-procedural aortic annular sizing prior to transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). We hypothesized that the accuracy of CT derived annular measurements would be greater at sites with higher TAVR procedural volume. Methods: Within a large integrated health system, TAVR was performed at low (<40 cases), intermediate (40–75 cases), and high-volume sites (>75 cases). 181 patients underwent TAVR with a Sapien XT transcatheter heart valve (THV). Two blinded experienced readers independently remeasured the annulus on CT and compared their measurements to site reported measurements. Hypothetical THV sizes were chosen based on measurements from site CT reports and independent readers’ measurements, and compared to the implanted THV size. Results: Correlation between site reported measurements and independent readers measurements of mean annulus size varied between low-volume (r = 0.31, p = 0.18), intermediate-volume (r = 0.34, p = 0.01), and high-volume sites (r = 0.96, p < 0.01). On multivariate analysis, interpretation of ≥20 CT scans (OR 0.29; 95% CI 0.03–0.81; p 0.02) and high-volume site (OR 0.16; 95% CI 0.10–0.82; p 0.02) were associated with reduced mismatch between the site predicted THV size and independent readers predicted THV size. Mismatch between site predicted THV size and implanted THV size was associated with a worse 30-day composite of mortality, dialysis-dependent renal failure, cerebrovascular accident, new permanent pacemaker, and hospital readmission (55.3 vs. 38.7%; p = 0.05). Conclusions: Accuracy of CT aortic annular sizing is improved with higher individual experience and site TAVR volume. These findings should be confirmed in larger, prospective studies. - Highlights: • Accuracy of CT aortic annular sizing is improved with higher individual experience and site TAVR volume. • CT readers with experience interpreting ≥20 pre-TAVR CT scans had

Tamsulosin reduces nighttime urine production in benign prostatic hyperplasia patients with nocturnal polyuria: a prospective open-label long-term study using frequency-volume chart.

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Kojima, Yoshiyuki; Sasaki, Shoichi; Imura, Makoto; Kubota, Yasue; Hayashi, Yutaro; Kohri, Kenjiro

2012-01-01

The effects of tamsulosin treatment on changes in frequency-volume chart (FVC) data, especially nighttime urine production, over time were assessed, and the mechanisms underlying the improvement of nocturia in benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) patients with nocturnal polyuria (NP) are discussed. A total of 104 patients with lower urinary tract symptoms secondary to BPH were enrolled. After enrollment in the study, the patients were treated with tamsulosin (0.2 mg) once daily. Visits were scheduled every 4 weeks until week 12 (month 3) after study entry, and then every 12 weeks subsequently. All patients completed the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), quality of life (QOL) index, and 3-day FVC, and underwent uroflowmetry at enrollment and on each visit. Eighty-two patients (mean age: 70.9 ± 7.1 years) were analyzed for 24 months after treatment. Patients were divided into two groups, NP and nonNP, based on FVC outcome. The IPSS, QOL index, and maximum flow rate improved during the 24-month period after treatment in both groups. Mean daytime urine volume significantly increased in the NP group, but no changes were detected in the nonNP group. Mean nighttime urine frequency significantly decreased in the NP group over a 24-month period, and was associated with a significant decrease in nighttime urine volume that was not found in the nonNP group. Maximum voided volume increased most months after treatment in both groups. The present long-term prospective study using FVC demonstrated that tamsulosin reduced nighttime urine production in BPH patients with NP. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Unhappiness and dissatisfaction in doctors cannot be predicted by selectors from medical school application forms: A prospective, longitudinal study

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Ferguson E

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Personal statements and referees' reports are widely used on medical school application forms, particularly in the UK, to assess the suitability of candidates for a career in medicine. However there are few studies which assess the validity of such information for predicting unhappiness or dissatisfaction with a career in medicine. Here we combine data from a long-term prospective study of medical student selection and training, with an experimental approach in which a large number of assessors used a paired comparison technique to predict outcome. Methods Data from a large-scale prospective study of students applying to UK medical schools in 1990 were used to identify 40 pairs of doctors, matched by sex, for whom personal statements and referees' reports were available, and who in a 2002/3 follow-up study, one pair member was very satisfied and the other very dissatisfied with medicine as a career. In 2005, 96 assessors, who were experienced medical school selectors, doctors, medical students or psychology students, used information from the doctors' original applications to judge which member of each pair of doctors was the happier, more satisfied doctor. Results None of the groups of assessors were significantly different from chance expectations in using applicants' personal statements and the referees' reports to predict actual future satisfaction or dissatisfaction, the distribution being similar to binomial expectations. However judgements of pairs of application forms from pairs of doctors showed a non-binomial distribution, indicating consensus among assessors as to which doctor would be the happy doctor (although the consensus was wrong in half the cases. Assessors taking longer to do the task concurred more. Consensus judgements seem mainly to be based on referees' predictions of academic achievement (even though academic achievement is not actually a valid predictor of happiness or satisfaction. Conclusion

Symptom clusters predict mortality among dialysis patients in Norway: a prospective observational cohort study.

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Amro, Amin; Waldum, Bård; von der Lippe, Nanna; Brekke, Fredrik Barth; Dammen, Toril; Miaskowski, Christine; Os, Ingrid

2015-01-01

Patients with end-stage renal disease on dialysis have reduced survival rates compared with the general population. Symptoms are frequent in dialysis patients, and a symptom cluster is defined as two or more related co-occurring symptoms. The aim of this study was to explore the associations between symptom clusters and mortality in dialysis patients. In a prospective observational cohort study of dialysis patients (n = 301), Kidney Disease and Quality of Life Short Form and Beck Depression Inventory questionnaires were administered. To generate symptom clusters, principal component analysis with varimax rotation was used on 11 kidney-specific self-reported physical symptoms. A Beck Depression Inventory score of 16 or greater was defined as clinically significant depressive symptoms. Physical and mental component summary scores were generated from Short Form-36. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used for the survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank statistics were applied to compare survival rates between the groups. Three different symptom clusters were identified; one included loading of several uremic symptoms. In multivariate analyses and after adjustment for health-related quality of life and depressive symptoms, the worst perceived quartile of the "uremic" symptom cluster independently predicted all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.47, 95% CI 1.44-4.22, P = 0.001) compared with the other quartiles during a follow-up period that ranged from four to 52 months. The two other symptom clusters ("neuromuscular" and "skin") or the individual symptoms did not predict mortality. Clustering of uremic symptoms predicted mortality. Assessing co-occurring symptoms rather than single symptoms may help to identify dialysis patients at high risk for mortality. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dysphagia - Results from multivariable predictive modelling on aspiration from a subset of the ARTSCAN trial.

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Söderström, Karin; Nilsson, Per; Laurell, Göran; Zackrisson, Björn; Jäghagen, Eva Levring

2017-02-01

To establish predictive models for late objective aspiration and late patient-reported choking based on dose-volume parameters and baseline patient and treatment characteristics, for patients with head and neck cancer undergoing definitive radiotherapy (RT). The impact of electively treated volume on late aspiration was also investigated. This prospective cohort is a subsample of 124 survivors from the ARTSCAN study. Late aspiration was identified with videofluoroscopy, at a minimum of 25months after the start of RT. Patient-reported choking was analysed at 12 and 60months post RT using the EORTC Quality of Life Module for Head and Neck Cancer 35. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to describe the association between clinical factors and dose-volume descriptors for organs at risk (OARs) and late dysphagia. Aspiration was found in 47% of the eligible patients. Mean dose to the middle pharyngeal constrictor (MPC), neck dissection post RT and age at randomisation in ARTSCAN were associated to late aspiration. Mean dose to the superior pharyngeal constrictor (SPC) and swallowing complaints at baseline were associated to patient reported choking at both time-points. Three separate risk groups for late aspiration, and two risk groups for late patient-reported choking were identified based on number of risk factors. The size of the electively treated volume could be used as a surrogate for individual OARs predicting late aspiration. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prospective Assessment of Optimal Individual Position (Prone Versus Supine) for Breast Radiotherapy: Volumetric and Dosimetric Correlations in 100 Patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lymberis, Stella C.; Wyngaert, John Keith de; Parhar, Preeti; Chhabra, Arpit M.; Fenton-Kerimian, Maria; Chang Jengwha; Hochman, Tsivia; Guth, Amber; Roses, Daniel; Goldberg, Judith D.; Formenti, Silvia C.

2012-01-01

Purpose: Damage to heart and lung from breast radiotherapy is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and lung cancer development. We conducted a prospective study to evaluate which position is best to spare lung and heart from radiotherapy exposure. Methods and Materials: One hundred consecutive Stage 0–IIA breast cancer patients consented to participate in a research trial that required two computed tomography simulation scans for planning both supine and prone positions. The optimal position was defined as that which best covered the contoured breast and tumor bed while it minimized critical organ irradiation, as quantified by the in-field heart and lung volume. The trial was designed to plan the first 100 patients in each position to study correlations between in-field volumes of organs at risk and dose. Results: Fifty-three left and 47 right breast cancer patients were consecutively accrued to the trial. In all patients, the prone position was optimal for sparing lung volume compared to the supine setup (mean lung volume reduction was 93.5 cc for right and 103.6 cc for left breast cancer patients). In 46/53 (87%) left breast cancer patients best treated prone, in-field heart volume was reduced by a mean of 12 cc and by 1.8 cc for the other 7/53 (13%) patients best treated supine. As predicted, supine-prone differences in in-field volume and mean dose of heart and lung were highly correlated (Spearman's correlation coefficient for left breast cancer patients was 0.90 for heart and 0.94 for lung and 0.92 for right breast cancer patients for lung). Conclusions: Prone setup reduced the amount of irradiated lung in all patients and reduced the amount of heart volume irradiated in 87% of left breast cancer patients. In-field organ volume is a valid surrogate for predicting dose; the trial continued to the planned target of 400.

Brain morphometric analysis predicts decline of intelligence quotient in children with sickle cell disease: A preliminary study.

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Chen, Rong; Krejza, Jaroslaw; Arkuszewski, Michal; Zimmerman, Robert A; Herskovits, Edward H; Melhem, Elias R

2017-03-01

For children with sickle cell disease (SCD) and at low risk category of stroke, we aim to build a predictive model to differentiate those with decline of intelligence-quotient (IQ) from counterparts without decline, based on structural magnetic-resonance (MR) imaging volumetric analysis. This preliminary prospective cohort study included 25 children with SCD, homozygous for hemoglobin S, with no history of stroke and transcranial Doppler mean velocities below 170cm/s at baseline. We administered the Kaufman Brief Intelligence Test (K-BIT) to each child at yearly intervals for 2-4 years. Each child underwent MR examination within 30 days of the baseline K-BIT evaluation date. We calculated K-BIT change rates, and used rate of change in K-BIT to classify children into two groups: a decline group and a non-decline group. We then generated predictive models to predict K-BIT decline/non-decline based on regional gray-matter (GM) volumes computed from structural MR images. We identified six structures (the left median cingulate gyrus, the right middle occipital gyrus, the left inferior occipital gyrus, the right fusiform gyrus, the right middle temporal gyrus, the right inferior temporal gyrus) that, when assessed for volume at baseline, are jointly predictive of whether a child would suffer subsequent K-BIT decline. Based on these six regional GM volumes and the baseline K-BIT, we built a prognostic model using the K * algorithm. The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were 0.84, 0.78 and 0.86, respectively. GM volumetric analysis predicts subsequent IQ decline for children with SCD. Copyright © 2017 Medical University of Bialystok. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preoperative predictive model for acute kidney injury after elective cardiac surgery: a prospective multicentre cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Callejas, Raquel; Panadero, Alfredo; Vives, Marc; Duque, Paula; Echarri, Gemma; Monedero, Pablo

2018-05-11

Predictive models of CS-AKI include emergency surgery and patients with haemodynamic instability. Our objective was to evaluate the performance of validated predictive models (Thakar and Demirjian) in elective cardiac surgery and to propose a better score in the case of poor performance. A prospective, multicentre, observational study was designed. Data were collected from 942 patients undergoing cardiac surgery, after excluding emergency surgery and patients with an intraaortic balloon pump. The main outcome measure was CS-AKI defined by the composite of requiring dialysis or doubling baseline creatinine values. Both models showed poor discrimination in elective surgery (Thakar's model, AUROC = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.50-0.64 and Demirjian's model, AUROC= 0.64, 95% CI = 0.58-0.71). We generated a new model whose significant independent predictors were: anaemia, age, hypertension, obesity, congestive heart failure, previous cardiac surgery and type of surgery. It classifies patients with scores 0-3 as low risk ( 8 as high risk (>30%) of developing CS-AKI with a statistically significant correlation (p <0.001). Our model reflects acceptable discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.66-0.78) which is significantly better than Thakar and Demirjian's models (p<0.01). We developed a new simple predictive model of CS-AKI in elective surgery based on available preoperative information. Our new model is easy to calculate and can be an effective tool for communicating risk to patients and guiding decision-making in the perioperative period. The study requires external validation.

Poor self-control and harsh punishment in childhood prospectively predict borderline personality symptoms in adolescent girls.

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Hallquist, Michael N; Hipwell, Alison E; Stepp, Stephanie D

2015-08-01

Developmental theories of borderline personality disorder (BPD) propose that harsh, invalidating parenting of a child with poor self-control and heightened negative emotionality often leads to a coercive cycle of parent-child transactions that increase risk for BPD symptoms such as emotion dysregulation. Although parenting practices and child temperament have previously been linked with BPD, less is known about the prospective influences of caregiver and child characteristics. Using annual longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Girls Study (n = 2,450), our study examined how reciprocal influences among harsh parenting, self-control, and negative emotionality between ages 5 and 14 predicted the development of BPD symptoms in adolescent girls ages 14 to 17. Consistent with developmental theories, we found that harsh punishment, poor self-control, and negative emotionality predicted BPD symptom severity at age 14. Only worsening self-control between ages 12 and 14, however, predicted growth in BPD symptoms from 14 to 17. Furthermore, the effects of harsh punishment and poor self-control on age 14 BPD symptoms were partially mediated by their earlier reciprocal effects on each other between ages 5 and 14. Our findings underscore the need to address both child and parental contributions to dysfunctional transactions in order to stem the development of BPD symptoms. Moreover, problems with self-regulation in early adolescence may indicate heightened risk for subsequent BPD. Altogether, these results increase our understanding of developmental trajectories associated with BPD symptoms in adolescent girls. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT: Utility for prediction of improved postoperative outcome in lung volume reduction surgery candidates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takenaka, Daisuke; Ohno, Yoshiharu; Koyama, Hisanobu; Nogami, Munenobu; Onishi, Yumiko; Matsumoto, Keiko; Yoshikawa, Takeshi; Matsumoto, Sumiaki; Sugimura, Kazuro

2010-01-01

Purpose: To directly compare the capabilities of perfusion scan, SPECT, co-registered SPECT/CT, and quantitatively and qualitatively assessed MDCT (i.e. quantitative CT and qualitative CT) for predicting postoperative clinical outcome for lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) candidates. Materials and methods: Twenty-five consecutive candidates (19 men and six women, age range: 42-72 years) for LVRS underwent preoperative CT and perfusion scan with SPECT. Clinical outcome of LVRS for all subjects was also assessed by determining the difference between pre- and postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) and 6-min walking distance (6MWD). All SPECT examinations were performed on a SPECT scanner, and co-registered to thin-section CT by using commercially available software. On planar imaging, SPECT and SPECT/CT, upper versus lower zone or lobe ratios (U/Ls) were calculated from regional uptakes between upper and lower lung fields in the operated lung. On quantitatively assessed CT, U/L for all subjects was assessed from regional functional lung volumes. On qualitatively assessed CT, planar imaging, SPECT and co-registered SPECT/CT, U/Ls were assessed with a 4-point visual scoring system. To compare capabilities of predicting clinical outcome, each U/L was statistically correlated with the corresponding clinical outcome. Results: Significantly fair or moderate correlations were observed between quantitatively and qualitatively assessed U/Ls obtained with all four methods and clinical outcomes (-0.60 ≤ r ≤ -0.42, p < 0.05). Conclusion: Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT has better correlation with clinical outcome in LVRS candidates than do planar imaging, SPECT or qualitatively assessed CT, and is at least as valid as quantitatively assessed CT.

Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT: Utility for prediction of improved postoperative outcome in lung volume reduction surgery candidates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takenaka, Daisuke [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Ohno, Yoshiharu, E-mail: yosirad@kobe-u.ac.j [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Koyama, Hisanobu [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Nogami, Munenobu [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Division of Image-Based Medicine, Institute of Biomedical Research and Innovation, 2-2, Minatojima Minamimachi Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0047 (Japan); Onishi, Yumiko [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Matsumoto, Keiko [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Department of Radiology, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimogato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898 (Japan); Yoshikawa, Takeshi; Matsumoto, Sumiaki; Sugimura, Kazuro [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan)

2010-06-15

Purpose: To directly compare the capabilities of perfusion scan, SPECT, co-registered SPECT/CT, and quantitatively and qualitatively assessed MDCT (i.e. quantitative CT and qualitative CT) for predicting postoperative clinical outcome for lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) candidates. Materials and methods: Twenty-five consecutive candidates (19 men and six women, age range: 42-72 years) for LVRS underwent preoperative CT and perfusion scan with SPECT. Clinical outcome of LVRS for all subjects was also assessed by determining the difference between pre- and postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV{sub 1}) and 6-min walking distance (6MWD). All SPECT examinations were performed on a SPECT scanner, and co-registered to thin-section CT by using commercially available software. On planar imaging, SPECT and SPECT/CT, upper versus lower zone or lobe ratios (U/Ls) were calculated from regional uptakes between upper and lower lung fields in the operated lung. On quantitatively assessed CT, U/L for all subjects was assessed from regional functional lung volumes. On qualitatively assessed CT, planar imaging, SPECT and co-registered SPECT/CT, U/Ls were assessed with a 4-point visual scoring system. To compare capabilities of predicting clinical outcome, each U/L was statistically correlated with the corresponding clinical outcome. Results: Significantly fair or moderate correlations were observed between quantitatively and qualitatively assessed U/Ls obtained with all four methods and clinical outcomes (-0.60 {<=} r {<=} -0.42, p < 0.05). Conclusion: Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT has better correlation with clinical outcome in LVRS candidates than do planar imaging, SPECT or qualitatively assessed CT, and is at least as valid as quantitatively assessed CT.

A test of prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Feeny, David; Eng, Ken

2005-01-01

Prospect theory (PT) hypothesizes that people judge states relative to a reference point, usually assumed to be their current health. States better than the reference point are valued on a concave portion of the utility function; worse states are valued on a convex portion. Using prospectively collected utility scores, the objective is to test empirically implications of PT. Osteoarthritis (OA) patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty periodically provided standard gamble scores for three OA hypothetical states describing mild, moderate, and severe OA as well as their subjectively defined current state (SDCS). Our hypothesis was that most patients improved between the pre- and postsurgery assessments. According to PT, scores for hypothetical states previously > SDCS but now < SDCS should be lower at the postsurgery assessment. Fourteen patients met the criteria for testing the hypothesis. Predictions were confirmed for 0 patients; there was no change or mixed results for 6 patients (42.9 percent); and scores moved in the direction opposite to that predicted by PT for 8 patients (57.1 percent). In general, the direction and magnitude of the changes in hypothetical-state scores do not conform to the predictions of PT.

Neural Reactivity to Emotional Stimuli Prospectively Predicts the Impact of a Natural Disaster on Psychiatric Symptoms in Children.

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Kujawa, Autumn; Hajcak, Greg; Danzig, Allison P; Black, Sarah R; Bromet, Evelyn J; Carlson, Gabrielle A; Kotov, Roman; Klein, Daniel N

2016-09-01

Natural disasters expose entire communities to stress and trauma, leading to increased risk for psychiatric symptoms. Yet, the majority of exposed individuals are resilient, highlighting the importance of identifying underlying factors that contribute to outcomes. The current study was part of a larger prospective study of children in Long Island, New York (n = 260). At age 9, children viewed unpleasant and pleasant images while the late positive potential (LPP), an event-related potential component that reflects sustained attention toward salient information, was measured. Following the event-related potential assessment, Hurricane Sandy, the second costliest hurricane in United States history, hit the region. Eight weeks after the hurricane, mothers reported on exposure to hurricane-related stress and children's internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Symptoms were reassessed 8 months after the hurricane. The LPP predicted both internalizing and externalizing symptoms after accounting for prehurricane symptomatology and interacted with stress to predict externalizing symptoms. Among children exposed to higher levels of hurricane-related stress, enhanced neural reactivity to unpleasant images predicted greater externalizing symptoms 8 weeks after the disaster, while greater neural reactivity to pleasant images predicted lower externalizing symptoms. Moreover, interactions between the LPP and stress continued to predict externalizing symptoms 8 months after the hurricane. Results indicate that heightened neural reactivity and attention toward unpleasant information, as measured by the LPP, predispose children to psychiatric symptoms when exposed to higher levels of stress related to natural disasters, while greater reactivity to and processing of pleasant information may be a protective factor. Copyright © 2015 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicted stand volume for Eucalyptus plantations by spatial analysis

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Latifah, Siti; Teodoro, RV; Myrna, GC; Nathaniel, CB; Leonardo, M. F.

2018-03-01

The main objective of the present study was to assess nonlinear models generated by integrating the stand volume growth rate to estimate the growth and yield of Eucalyptus. The primary data was done for point of interest (POI) of permanent sample plots (PSPs) and inventory sample plots, in Aek Nauli sector, Simalungun regency,North Sumatera Province,Indonesia. from December 2008- March 2009. Today,the demand for forestry information has continued to grow over recent years. Because many forest managers and decision makers face complex decisions, reliable information has become the necessity. In the assessment of natural resources including plantation forests have been widely used geospatial technology.The yield of Eucalyptus plantations represented by merchantable volume as dependent variable while factors affecting yield namely stands variables and the geographic variables as independent variables. The majority of the areas in the study site has stand volume class 0 - 50 m3/ha with 16.59 ha or 65.85 % of the total study site.

Interaction effects in the theory of planned behaviour: Predicting fruit and vegetable consumption in three prospective cohorts.

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Kothe, Emily J; Mullan, Barbara A

2015-09-01

The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has been criticized for not including interactions between major constructs thought to underlie behaviour. This study investigated the application of the TPB to the prediction of fruit and vegetable consumption across three prospective cohorts. The primary aim of the study was to investigate whether interactions between major constructs in the theory would increase the ability of the model to predict intention to consume fruit and vegetables (i.e., attitude × perceived behavioural control [PBC], subjective norm × PBC, subjective norm × attitude) and self-reported fruit and vegetable intake (i.e., PBC × intention). Secondary data analysis from three cohorts: One predictive study (cohort 1) and two intervention studies (cohorts 2 and 3). Participants completed a TPB measure at baseline and a measure of fruit and vegetable intake at 1 week (cohort 1; n = 90) or 1 month (cohorts 2 and 3; n = 296). Attitude moderated the impact of PBC on intention. PBC moderated the impact of intention on behaviour at 1 week but not 1 month. The variance accounted for by the interactions was small. However, the presence of interactions between constructs within the TPB demonstrates a need to consider interactions between variables within the TPB in both theoretical and applied research using the model. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Prospective Teachers Proportional Reasoning and Presumption of Student Work

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mujiyem Sapti

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to describe the proportional reasoning of prospective teachers and their predictions about students' answers. Subjects were 4 prospective teacher  7th semester Department of Mathematics Education, Muhammadiyah University of Purworejo. Proportional reasoning task used to obtain research data. Subjects were asked to explain their reasoning and write predictions of student completion. Data was taken on October 15th, 2014. Interviews were conducted after the subjects completed the task and recorded with audio media. The research data were subject written work and interview transcripts. Data were analyzed using qualitative analysis techniques. In solving the proportional reasoning task, subjects using the cross product. However, they understand the meaning of the cross product. Subject also could predict students' reasoning on the matter.

A prospective study of breast anthropomorphic measurements, volume and ptosis in 605 Asian patients with breast cancer or benign breast disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nai-Si Huang

Full Text Available The current study aims to summarize breast anthropomorphic measurement features in Chinese patients with breast diseases and to investigate their potential correlations with demographic factors.Fifteen breast anthropomorphic parameters of 605 Chinese female patients were collected prospectively. Breast ptosis status was scaled by two methods and breast volume was calculated according to a modified formula of BREAST-V.Among 1210 breasts, the average breast volume was 340.0±109.1 ml (91.8-919.2 ml. The distance from the nipple to the inframammary fold was 7.5±1.6 cm in the standing position. The width of the breast base was 14.3±1.4 cm (8.5-23.5 cm. The incidence of breast ptosis was 22.8% (274/1204, of which 37 (23.5% and 79 (31.7% women had severe ptosis assessed by different criteria. Increased height (OR[odds ratio] = 1.500, P<0.001, post-menopausal status (OR = 1.463, P = 0.02, increased BMI, breastfeeding for 7-12 months (OR = 1.882, P = 0.008 and more than one year (OR = 2.367, P = 0.001 were risk factors for an increased breast volume. Post-menopausal status (OR = 2.390, P<0.001 and OR = 2.621, P<0.001 for different scales, BMI≥24.7 kg/m2 (OR = 3.149, P<0.001 and OR = 2.495, P = 0.002, breastfeeding for 7-12 months (OR = 4.136, P = 0.004 and OR = 4.010, P = 0.002, and breastfeeding for more than one year (OR = 6.934, P<0.001 and OR = 6.707, P<0.001 were independent risk factors for breast ptosis.The current study provides anthropomorphic measurements data of Chinese women with breast diseases, which are useful for cosmetic and reconstructive breast surgery decisions. Post-menopausal status, increased BMI, and breastfeeding for more than six months were independent risk factors for both increased breast volume and breast ptosis.

The volume of the human knee joint.

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Matziolis, Georg; Roehner, Eric; Windisch, Christoph; Wagner, Andreas

2015-10-01

Despite its clinical relevance, particularly in septic knee surgery, the volume of the human knee joint has not been established to date. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine knee joint volume and whether or not it is dependent on sex or body height. Sixty-one consecutive patients (joints) who were due to undergo endoprosthetic joint replacement were enrolled in this prospective study. During the operation, the joint volume was determined by injecting saline solution until a pressure of 200 mmHg was achieved in the joint. The average volume of all knee joints was 131 ± 53 (40-290) ml. The volume was not found to be dependent on sex, but it was dependent on the patients' height (R = 0.312, p = 0.014). This enabled an estimation of the joint volume according to V = 1.6 height - 135. The considerable inter-individual variance of the knee joint volume would suggest that it should be determined or at least estimated according to body height if the joint volume has consequences for the diagnostics or therapy of knee disorders.

Astronautics summary and prospects

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Kiselev, Anatoly Ivanovich; Menshikov, Valery Alexandrovich

2003-01-01

The monograph by A.I.Kiselev, A.A. Medvedev and Y.A.Menshikov, Astronautics: Summary and Prospects, aroused enthusiasm both among experts and the public at large. This is due to the felicitous choice of presentation that combines a simple description of complex space matters with scientificsubstantiation of the sub­ jectmatter described. The wealth of color photos makes the book still more attractive, and it was nominated for an award at the 14th International Moscow Book Fair, being singled out as the "best publication of the book fair". The book's popularity led to a second edition, substantially revised and enlarged. Since the first edition did not sufficiently cover the issues of space impact on ecology and the prospective development of space systems, the authors revised the entire volume, including in it the chapter "Space activity and ecology" and the section "Multi-function space systems". Using the federal monitoring system, now in the phase of system engi­ neering, as an example, the authors consi...

Taper-based system for estimating stem volumes of upland oaks

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Donald E. Hilt

1980-01-01

A taper-based system for estimating stem volumes is developed for Central States upland oaks. Inside bark diameters up the stem are predicted as a function of dbhib, total height, and powers and relative height. A Fortran IV computer program, OAKVOL, is used to predict cubic and board-foot volumes to any desired merchantable top dib. Volumes of...

Intraoperative ultrasound for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma biological behaviour: Prospective comparison with pathology.

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Santambrogio, Roberto; Cigala, Claudia; Barabino, Matteo; Maggioni, Marco; Scifo, Giovanna; Bruno, Savino; Bertolini, Emanuela; Opocher, Enrico; Bulfamante, Gaetano

2018-02-01

Preoperative prediction of both microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma and histological grade of hepatocellular carcinoma is pivotal to treatment planning and prognostication. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether some intraoperative ultrasound features correlate with both the presence of same histological patterns and differentiation grade of hepatocellular carcinoma on the histological features of the primary resected tumour. All patients with single, small hepatocellular carcinoma that underwent hepatic resection were included in this prospective double-blind study: the intraoperative ultrasound patterns of nodule were registered and compared with similar histological features. A total of 179 patients were enclosed in this study: 97 (54%) patients (34% in HCC ≤2 cm) had a microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma at ultrasound examination, while 82 (46%) patients (41% in HCC ≤2 cm) at histological evaluation. Statistical analysis showed that diameters ≤2 cm, presence of satellites and microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma at ultrasound examination were the variables with the strongest association with the histological findings. In the multivariate analysis, the vascular microinfiltration and infiltrative hepatocellular carcinoma aspect were independent predictors for grading. In patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, the prevalence of microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma is high, even in cases of HCC ≤2 cm. Intraoperative ultrasound findings strongly correlated with histopathological criteria in detecting microinvasive patterns and are useful to predict neoplastic differentiation. The knowledge of these features prior to treatment are highly desired (this can be obtained by an intraoperative ultrasound examination), as they could help in providing optimal management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Volume-based predictive biomarkers of sequential FDG-PET/CT for sunitinib in cancer of unknown primary: identification of the best benefited patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Yifei; Xu, Wei; Xiao, Jianru; Bai, Ruojing; Li, Yiming; Yu, Hongyu; Yang, Chunshan; Shi, Huazheng; Zhang, Jian; Li, Jidong; Wang, Chenguang

2017-01-01

To test the performance of sequential "1"8F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT) in predicting survival after sunitinib therapies in patients with cancer of unknown primary (CUP). CUP patients were enrolled for sequential PET/CT scanning for sunitinib and a control group. Univariate and multivariate analysis were applied to test the efficacy of sunitinib therapy in CUP patients. Next, sequential analyses involving PET/CT parameters were performed to identify and validate sensitive PET/CT biomarkers for sunitinib therapy. Finally, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (TDROC) analyses were performed to compare the predictive accuracy. Multivariate analysis proved that sunitinib group had significantly improved survival (p < 0.01) as compared to control group. After cycle 2 of therapy, multivariate analysis identified volume-based PET/CT parameters as sensitive biomarkers for sunitinib (p < 0.01). TDROC curves demonstrated whole-body total lesion glycolysis reduction (Δ WTLG) and follow-up WTLG to have good accuracy for efficacy prediction. This evidence was validated after cycle 4 of therapy with the same method. Sunitinib therapy proved effective in treatment of CUP. PET/CT volume-based parameters may help predict outcome of sunitinib therapy, in which Δ WTLG and follow-up WTLG seem to be sensitive biomarkers for sunitinib efficacy. Patients with greater reduction and lower WTLG at follow-up seem to have better survival outcome. (orig.)

Volume-based predictive biomarkers of sequential FDG-PET/CT for sunitinib in cancer of unknown primary: identification of the best benefited patients

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Ma, Yifei [Second Military Medical University, Department of Orthorpedic Oncology, Changzheng Hospital, Shanghai (China); Second Military Medical University, Department of Pathology, Changzheng Hospital, Shanghai (China); Xu, Wei; Xiao, Jianru [Second Military Medical University, Department of Orthorpedic Oncology, Changzheng Hospital, Shanghai (China); Bai, Ruojing [Geriatrics Institute, Department of Geriatrics, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Laboratory of Neuro-Trauma and Neurodegenerative Disorder, Tianjin (China); Li, Yiming [Neurosurgery Institute, Department of Neuro-oncology, Beijing (China); Yu, Hongyu [Second Military Medical University, Department of Pathology, Changzheng Hospital, Shanghai (China); Yang, Chunshan [Panorama Medical Imaging Center, Department of PET/CT Radiology, Shanghai (China); Department of PET/CT Radiology Center, Shanghai (China); Shi, Huazheng; Zhang, Jian [Department of PET/CT Radiology Center, Shanghai (China); Li, Jidong [The First People' s Hospital of Shangqiu, Department of Stomatology, Shangqiu, Henan Province (China); Wang, Chenguang [Second Military Medical University, Department of Radiology, Changzheng Hospital, Shanghai (China)

2017-02-15

To test the performance of sequential {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT) in predicting survival after sunitinib therapies in patients with cancer of unknown primary (CUP). CUP patients were enrolled for sequential PET/CT scanning for sunitinib and a control group. Univariate and multivariate analysis were applied to test the efficacy of sunitinib therapy in CUP patients. Next, sequential analyses involving PET/CT parameters were performed to identify and validate sensitive PET/CT biomarkers for sunitinib therapy. Finally, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (TDROC) analyses were performed to compare the predictive accuracy. Multivariate analysis proved that sunitinib group had significantly improved survival (p < 0.01) as compared to control group. After cycle 2 of therapy, multivariate analysis identified volume-based PET/CT parameters as sensitive biomarkers for sunitinib (p < 0.01). TDROC curves demonstrated whole-body total lesion glycolysis reduction (Δ WTLG) and follow-up WTLG to have good accuracy for efficacy prediction. This evidence was validated after cycle 4 of therapy with the same method. Sunitinib therapy proved effective in treatment of CUP. PET/CT volume-based parameters may help predict outcome of sunitinib therapy, in which Δ WTLG and follow-up WTLG seem to be sensitive biomarkers for sunitinib efficacy. Patients with greater reduction and lower WTLG at follow-up seem to have better survival outcome. (orig.)

Behavioral inhibition in childhood predicts smaller hippocampal volume in adolescent offspring of parents with panic disorder

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Schwartz, C E; Kunwar, P S; Hirshfeld-Becker, D R; Henin, A; Vangel, M G; Rauch, S L; Biederman, J; Rosenbaum, J F

2015-01-01

Behavioral inhibition (BI) is a genetically influenced behavioral profile seen in 15–20% of 2-year-old children. Children with BI are timid with people, objects and situations that are novel or unfamiliar, and are more reactive physiologically to these challenges as evidenced by higher heart rate, pupillary dilation, vocal cord tension and higher levels of cortisol. BI predisposes to the later development of anxiety, depression and substance abuse. Reduced hippocampal volumes have been observed in anxiety disorders, depression and posttraumatic stress disorder. Animal models have demonstrated that chronic stress can damage the hippocampal formation and implicated cortisol in these effects. We, therefore, hypothesized that the hippocampi of late adolescents who had been behaviorally inhibited as children would be smaller compared with those who had not been inhibited. Hippocampal volume was measured with high-resolution structural magnetic resonance imaging in 43 females and 40 males at 17 years of age who were determined to be BI+ or BI− based on behaviors observed in the laboratory as young children. BI in childhood predicted reduced hippocampal volumes in the adolescents who were offspring of parents with panic disorder, or panic disorder with comorbid major depression. We discuss genetic and environmental factors emanating from both child and parent that may explain these findings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to demonstrate a relationship between the most extensively studied form of temperamentally based human trait anxiety, BI, and hippocampal structure. The reduction in hippocampal volume, as reported by us, suggests a role for the hippocampus in human trait anxiety and anxiety disorder that warrants further investigation. PMID:26196438

Predicting Circulatory Diseases from Psychosocial Safety Climate: A Prospective Cohort Study from Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harry Becher

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Circulatory diseases (CDs (including myocardial infarction, angina, stroke or hypertension are among the leading causes of death in the world. In this paper, we explore for the first time the impact of a specific aspect of organizational climate, Psychosocial Safety Climate (PSC, on CDs. We used two waves of interview data from Australia, with an average lag of 5 years (excluding baseline CDs, final n = 1223. Logistic regression was conducted to estimate the prospective associations between PSC at baseline on incident CDs at follow-up. It was found that participants in low PSC environments were 59% more likely to develop new CD than those in high PSC environments. Logistic regression showed that high PSC at baseline predicts lower CD risk at follow-up (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.00 and this risk remained unchanged even after additional adjustment for known job design risk factors (effort reward imbalance and job strain. These results suggest that PSC is an independent risk factor for CDs in Australia. Beyond job design this study implicates organizational climate and prevailing management values regarding worker psychological health as the genesis of CDs.

Circulating histones for predicting prognosis after cardiac surgery: a prospective study.

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Gao, Hongxiang; Zhang, Naipu; Lu, Fangfang; Yu, Xindi; Zhu, Limin; Mo, Xi; Wang, Wei

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to assess the perioperative changes in circulating histones and their relationships with other biomarkers and clinical outcomes after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) in patients. Forty-eight patients with congenital cardiac diseases undergoing corrective procedure with CPB were prospectively enrolled in this study. Circulating histones, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured preoperatively (T0) and at 0 (T1), 24 (T2), 48 (T3) and 72 (T4) h postoperatively. The relationships between biomarkers and clinical outcomes were analysed. Circulating histones, NT-proBNP, PCT and CRP increased significantly postoperatively, with histones reaching the peak value earliest at T1. Circulating histone levels were higher in patients with adverse events. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that peak histone levels had a better predictive value for adverse events postoperatively. Peak histone levels correlated with the peak level of NT-proBNP (r = 0.563, P histones reached peak levels faster than NT-proBNP, PCT and CRP. Furthermore, peak histone levels correlated with biomarkers and postoperative clinical outcomes. Circulating histones may be used as a prognostic indicator for patients after cardiac surgery with CPB. ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT02325765). © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

The predictive ability of the STarT Back Tool was limited in people with chronic low back pain: a prospective cohort study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michelle Kendell

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Questions: In people with chronic non-specific low back pain (LBP, what is the predictive and discriminative validity of the STarT Back Tool (SBT for pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change at 1-year follow-up? What is the profile of the SBT risk subgroups with respect to demographic variables, pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and psychological measures? Design: Prospective cohort study. Participants: A total of 290 adults with dominant axial LBP of ≥ 3 months’ duration recruited from the general community, and private physiotherapy, psychology, and pain-management clinics in Western Australia. Outcome measures: The 1-year follow-up measures were pain intensity, LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change. Results: Outcomes were collected on 264 participants. The SBT categorised 82 participants (28% as low risk, 116 (40% as medium risk, and 92 (32% as high risk. The risk subgroups differed significantly (p < 0.05 on baseline pain, disability, and psychological scores. The SBT’s predictive ability was strongest for disability: RR was 2.30 (95% CI 1.28 to 4.10 in the medium-risk group and 2.86 (95% CI 1.60 to 5.11 in the high-risk group. The SBT’s predictive ability was weaker for pain: RR was 1.25 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.51 in the medium-risk group and 1.26 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.52 in the high-risk group. For the SBT total score, the AUC was 0.71 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.77 for disability and 0.63 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.71 for pain. Conclusion: This was the first large study to investigate the SBT in a population exclusively with chronic LBP. The SBT provided an acceptable indication of 1-year disability, had poor predictive and discriminative ability for future pain, and was unable to predict or discriminate global perceived change. In this cohort with chronic non-specific LBP, the SBT’s predictive and discriminative abilities were restricted to disability at 1�

Factors Predicting a Good Symptomatic Outcome After Prostate Artery Embolisation (PAE).

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Maclean, D; Harris, M; Drake, T; Maher, B; Modi, S; Dyer, J; Somani, B; Hacking, N; Bryant, T

2018-02-26

As prostate artery embolisation (PAE) becomes an established treatment for benign prostatic obstruction, factors predicting good symptomatic outcome remain unclear. Pre-embolisation prostate size as a predictor is controversial with a handful of papers coming to conflicting conclusions. We aimed to investigate if an association existed in our patient cohort between prostate size and clinical benefit, in addition to evaluating percentage volume reduction as a predictor of symptomatic outcome following PAE. Prospective follow-up of 86 PAE patients at a single institution between June 2012 and January 2016 was conducted (mean age 64.9 years, range 54-80 years). Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to assess strength of association between clinical improvement (change in IPSS) and other variables, of any statistical correlation, through Pearson's bivariate analysis. No major procedural complications were identified and clinical success was achieved in 72.1% (n = 62) at 12 months. Initial prostate size and percentage reduction were found to have a significant association with clinical improvement. Multiple linear regression analysis (r 2  = 0.48) demonstrated that percentage volume reduction at 3 months (r = 0.68, p < 0.001) had the strongest correlation with good symptomatic improvement at 12 months after adjusting for confounding factors. Both the initial prostate size and percentage volume reduction at 3 months predict good symptomatic outcome at 12 months. These findings therefore aid patient selection and counselling to achieve optimal outcomes for men undergoing prostate artery embolisation.

The predictive value of treatment response using FDG PET performed on day 21 of chemoradiotherapy in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. A prospective, multicentre study (RTEP3)

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Palie, Odre; Vera, Pierre [Henri Becquerel Cancer Center and Rouen University Hospital, and QuantIF - LITIS (EA 4108), University of Rouen, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Rouen (France); Michel, Pierre; Di Fiore, Frederic [Rouen University Hospital and University of Rouen, Digestive Oncology Unit, Hepatogastroenterology Department, Rouen (France); Menard, Jean-Francois [Rouen University Hospital and University of Rouen, Department of Biostatistic, Rouen (France); Rousseau, Caroline; Bridji, Boumediene [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Renee Gauducheau Cancer Center, Nantes (France); Rio, Emmanuel [Department of Radiotherapy, Renee Gauducheau Cancer Center, Nantes (France); Benyoucef, Ahmed [Department of Radiotherapy, Henri Becquerel Cancer Center, Rouen (France); Meyer, Marc-Etienne [Amiens University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Amiens (France); Jalali, Khadija [Amiens University Hospital, Department of Radiotherapy, Amiens (France); Bardet, Stephane [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Francois Baclesse Cancer Center, Caen (France); M' Vondo, Che Mabubu [Department of radiotherapy, Francois Baclesse Cancer Center, Caen (France); Olivier, Pierre [Brabois University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nancy (France); Faure, Guillaume [Department of Radiotherapy, Centre prive de Radiotherapie de Metz, Metz (France); Itti, Emmanuel [Henri Mondor University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Creteil (France); Diana, Christian [Henri Mondor University Hospital, Department of Radiotherapy, Creteil (France); Houzard, Claire [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France); Mornex, Francoise [Department of Radiotherapy, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France)

2013-09-15

FDG PET has been suggested to have predictive value in the prognosis of oesophageal carcinoma. However, the retrospective studies reported in the literature have shown discordant results. Additionally, only four studies have evaluated FDG PET during chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with different histological lesions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive value of FDG PET performed early during CRT (on day 21) in a population of patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Included in this prospective study were 57 patients with a histological diagnosis of squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus. Of these 57 patients, 48 (84 %) were evaluated (aged 63 {+-} 11 years; 44 men, 4 women). Each patient underwent FDG PET (4.5 MBq/kg) before CRT, according to the Herskovic protocol (t0; PET{sub 1}) and on day 21 {+-} 3 from the start of CRT (d21; PET{sub 2}). The response assessment included a clinical examination, CT scan or FDG PET and histological analysis 3 months and 1 year after PET{sub 1}. The patients were classified as showing a complete response (CR) or a noncomplete response. A quantitative analysis was carried out for PET{sub 1} and PET{sub 2} using the following parameters: SUVmax, SUVmean (with SUVmean{sub 40} as the 3-D volume at an SUVmax threshold of 40 % and SUVmean{sub p} as that defined by a physician), tumour volume (TV, with TV{sub 40} defined as the TV at 40 % of SUVmax, and TV{sub p} as that defined by a physician); and the total lesion glycolysis (TLG, SUVmean x TV, with TLG{sub 40} defined as the TLG at 40 % of SUVmax, and TLG{sub p} as that defined by a physician). The differences in responses at 3 months and 1 year between PET{sub 1} (t0) and PET{sub 2} (d21) were assessed in terms of variations in SUV, TV and TLG using a repeated measures of variance (ANOVA). SUVmax, SUVmean and TLG decreased significantly between PET{sub 1} (t0) and PET{sub 2} (d21; p < 0.0001). The TV significantly decreased only when assessed

Correlation between metabolic tumor volume and pathologic tumor volume in squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, James D.; Chisholm, Karen M.; Daly, Megan E.; Wiegner, Ellen A.; Truong, Daniel; Iagaru, Andrei; Maxim, Peter G.; Loo, Billy W.; Graves, Edward E.; Kaplan, Michael J.; Kong, Christina; Le, Quynh-Thu

2011-01-01

Purpose: To explore the relationship between pathologic tumor volume and volume estimated from different tumor segmentation techniques on 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in oral cavity cancer. Materials and methods: Twenty-three patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oral tongue had PET–CT scans before definitive surgery. Pathologic tumor volume was estimated from surgical specimens. Metabolic tumor volume (MTV) was defined from PET–CT scans as the volume of tumor above a given SUV threshold. Multiple SUV thresholds were explored including absolute SUV thresholds, relative SUV thresholds, and gradient-based techniques. Results: Multiple MTV’s were associated with pathologic tumor volume; however the correlation was poor (R 2 range 0.29–0.58). The ideal SUV threshold, defined as the SUV that generates an MTV equal to pathologic tumor volume, was independently associated with maximum SUV (p = 0.0005) and tumor grade (p = 0.024). MTV defined as a function of maximum SUV and tumor grade improved the prediction of pathologic tumor volume (R 2 = 0.63). Conclusions: Common SUV thresholds fail to predict pathologic tumor volume in head and neck cancer. The optimal technique that allows for integration of PET–CT with radiation treatment planning remains to be defined. Future investigation should incorporate biomarkers such as tumor grade into definitions of MTV.

Influence of department volume on survival for ovarian cancer: results from a prospective quality assurance program of the Austrian Association for Gynecologic Oncology.

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Marth, Christian; Hiebl, Sonja; Oberaigner, Willi; Winter, Raimund; Leodolter, Sepp; Sevelda, Paul

2009-01-01

The Austrian Association for Gynecologic Oncology initiated in 1998 a prospective quality assurance program for patients with ovarian cancer. The aim of this study was to evaluate factors predicting overall survival especially under consideration of department volume. All Austrian gynecological departments were invited to participate in the quality assurance program. A questionnaire was sent out that included birth date, histology, date of diagnosis, stage, and basic information on primary treatment. Description of comorbidity was not requested. Patient life status was assessed in a passive way. We did record linkage between each patient's name and birth date and the official mortality data set collected by Statistics Austria. No data were available on progression-free survival. Patients treated between January 1, 1999 and December 31, 2004 were included in the analysis. Mortality dates were available to December 31, 2006. Data were analyzed by means of classical statistical methods. Cut-off point for departments was 24 patients per year. A total of 1948 patients were evaluable. Approximately 75% of them were treated at institutions with fewer than 24 new patients per year. Patient characteristics were grossly similar for both department types. Multivariate analysis confirmed established prognostic factors such as International Federation of Gynecologists and Obstetricians (FIGO) stage, lymphadenectomy, age, grading, and residual disease. In addition, we found small departments (<24 patients per year) to have a negative effect on overall survival (hazards ratio, 1.38: 95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.7; and P < 0.001). The results indicate that in Austria, rules prescribing minimum department case load can further improve survival for patients with ovarian cancer.

Exploiting the capabilities of the Sentinel-2 multi spectral instrument for predicting growing stock volume in forest ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Mura, Matteo; Bottalico, Francesca; Giannetti, Francesca; Bertani, Remo; Giannini, Raffaello; Mancini, Marco; Orlandini, Simone; Travaglini, Davide; Chirici, Gherardo

2018-04-01

The spatial prediction of growing stock volume is one of the most frequent application of remote sensing for supporting the sustainable management of forest ecosystems. For such a purpose data from active or passive sensors are used as predictor variables in combination with measures taken in the field in sampling plots. The Sentinel-2 (S2) satellites are equipped with a Multi Spectral Instrument (MSI) capable of acquiring 13 bands in the visible and infrared domains with a spatial resolution varying between 10 and 60 m. The present study aimed at evaluating the performance of the S2-MSI imagery for estimating the growing stock volume of forest ecosystems. To do so we used 240 plots measured in two study areas in Italy. The imputation was carried out with eight k-Nearest Neighbours (k-NN) methods available in the open source YaImpute R package. In order to evaluate the S2-MSI performance we repeated the experimental protocol also with two other sets of images acquired by two well-known satellites equipped with multi spectral instruments: Landsat 8 OLI and RapidEye scanner. We found that S2 worked better than Landsat in 37.5% of the cases and in 62.5% of the cases better than RapidEye. In one study area the best performance was obtained with Landsat OLI (RMSD = 6.84%) and in the other with S2 (RMSD = 22.94%), both with the k-NN system based on a distance matrix calculated with the Random Forest algorithm. The results confirmed that S2 images are suitable for predicting growing stock volume obtaining good performances (average RMSD for both the test areas of less than 19%).

Korean working towards low and intermediate level waste volume reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myung-Jae Song; Jong-Kil Park

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is a national task required for sustainable generation of nuclear power and for energy self-reliance. This paper describes the results, efforts, and prospects for the safe management of radioactive wastes having been performed by the Nuclear Environment Technology Institute (NETEC) of the Korean Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO). Firstly, KEPCO's efforts and results for waste volume reduction are summarized to show how the number of waste drums generated per reactor-year could be reduced by about 60% during the last 10 years. Secondly, a new treatment technology, a technology for low and intermediate level waste (LILW) vitrification, was introduced to prospect how the technology reduces the waste volume and increases the inherent safety for LILW disposal. It is expected that the vitrification technology will contribute not only to reduce LILW volume to around 1/14 ∼ 1/32 but also to change the 'Not In My Back Yard' (NIMBY) syndrome to the 'Please In My Front Yard' (PIMFY) attitude of local communities/residents for LILW disposal. (author)

Prediction of clearance, volume of distribution and half-life by allometric scaling and by use of plasma concentrations predicted from pharmacokinetic constants: a comparative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmood, I

1999-08-01

Pharmacokinetic parameters (clearance, CL, volume of distribution in the central compartment, VdC, and elimination half-life, t1/2beta) predicted by an empirical allometric approach have been compared with parameters predicted from plasma concentrations calculated by use of the pharmacokinetic constants A, B, alpha and beta, where A and B are the intercepts on the Y axis of the plot of plasma concentration against time and alpha and beta are the rate constants, both pairs of constants being for the distribution and elimination phases, respectively. The pharmacokinetic parameters of cefpiramide, actisomide, troglitazone, procaterol, moxalactam and ciprofloxacin were scaled from animal data obtained from the literature. Three methods were used to generate plots for the prediction of clearance in man: dependence of clearance on body weight (simple allometric equation); dependence of the product of clearance and maximum life-span potential (MLP) on body weight; and dependence of the product of clearance and brain weight on body weight. Plasma concentrations of the drugs were predicted in man by use of A, B, alpha and beta obtained from animal data. The predicted plasma concentrations were then used to calculate CL, VdC and t1/2beta. The pharmacokinetic parameters predicted by use of both approaches were compared with measured values. The results indicate that simple allometry did not predict clearance satisfactorily for actisomide, troglitazone, procaterol and ciprofloxacin. Use of MLP or the product of clearance and brain weight improved the prediction of clearance for these four drugs. Except for troglitazone, VdC and t1/2beta predicted for man by use of the allometric approach were comparable with measured values for the drugs studied. CL, VdC and t1/2beta predicted by use of pharmacokinetic constants were comparable with values predicted by simple allometry. Thus, if simple allometry failed to predict clearance of a drug, so did the pharmacokinetic constant

Baseline social amotivation predicts 1-year functioning in UHR subjects: A validation and prospective investigation.

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Lam, Max; Abdul Rashid, Nur Amirah; Lee, Sara-Ann; Lim, Jeanette; Foussias, George; Fervaha, Gagan; Ruhrman, Stephan; Remington, Gary; Lee, Jimmy

2015-12-01

Social amotivation and diminished expression have been reported to underlie negative symptomatology in schizophrenia. In the current study we sought to establish and validate these negative symptom domains in a large cohort of schizophrenia subjects (n=887) and individuals who are deemed to be Ultra-High Risk (UHR) for psychosis. Confirmatory factor analysis conducted on PANSS item domains demonstrate that the dual negative symptom domains exist in schizophrenia and UHR subjects. We further sought to examine if these negative symptom domains were associated with functioning in UHR subjects. Linear regression analyses confirmed that social amotivation predicted functioning in UHR subjects prospectively at 1 year follow up. Results suggest that the association between social amotivation and functioning is generalisable beyond schizophrenia populations to those who are at-risk of developing psychosis. Social amotivation may be an important dimensional clinical construct to be studied across a range of psychiatric conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Prospects for vitrification of mixed wastes at ANL-E

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazer, J.; No, Hyo.

1993-01-01

This report summarizes a study evaluating the prospects for vitrification of some of the mixed wastes at ANL-E. This project can be justified on the following basis: Some of ANL-E's mixed waste streams will be stabilized such that they can be treated as a low-level radioactive waste. The expected volume reduction that results during vitrification will significantly reduce the overall waste volume requiring disposal. Mixed-waste disposal options currently used by ANL-E may not be permissible in the near future without treatment technologies such as vitrification

Characterizing Tumor Heterogeneity With Functional Imaging and Quantifying High-Risk Tumor Volume for Early Prediction of Treatment Outcome: Cervical Cancer as a Model

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Mayr, Nina A., E-mail: Nina.Mayr@osumc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Huang Zhibin [Department of Radiation Oncology and Department of Physics, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC (United States); Wang, Jian Z. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Lo, Simon S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH (United States); Fan, Joline M. [Department of Molecular Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Grecula, John C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Sammet, Steffen [Department of Radiology, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States); Department of Radiology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Sammet, Christina L. [Department of Radiology, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States); Jia Guang; Zhang Jun; Knopp, Michael V.; Yuh, William T.C. [Department of Radiology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States)

2012-07-01

Purpose: Treatment response in cancer has been monitored by measuring anatomic tumor volume (ATV) at various times without considering the inherent functional tumor heterogeneity known to critically influence ultimate treatment outcome: primary tumor control and survival. This study applied dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) functional MRI to characterize tumors' heterogeneous subregions with low DCE values, at risk for treatment failure, and to quantify the functional risk volume (FRV) for personalized early prediction of treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: DCE-MRI was performed in 102 stage IB{sub 2}-IVA cervical cancer patients to assess tumor perfusion heterogeneity before and during radiation/chemotherapy. FRV represents the total volume of tumor voxels with critically low DCE signal intensity (<2.1 compared with precontrast image, determined by previous receiver operator characteristic analysis). FRVs were correlated with treatment outcome (follow-up: 0.2-9.4, mean 6.8 years) and compared with ATVs (Mann-Whitney, Kaplan-Meier, and multivariate analyses). Results: Before and during therapy at 2-2.5 and 4-5 weeks of RT, FRVs >20, >13, and >5 cm{sup 3}, respectively, significantly predicted unfavorable 6-year primary tumor control (p = 0.003, 7.3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -8}, 2.0 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -8}) and disease-specific survival (p = 1.9 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -4}, 2.1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -6}, 2.5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7}, respectively). The FRVs were superior to the ATVs as early predictors of outcome, and the differentiating power of FRVs increased during treatment. Discussion: Our preliminary results suggest that functional tumor heterogeneity can be characterized by DCE-MRI to quantify FRV for predicting ultimate long-term treatment outcome. FRV is a novel functional imaging heterogeneity parameter, superior to ATV, and can be clinically translated for personalized early outcome prediction before or as early as 2

Extravascular Lung Water Does Not Increase in Hypovolemic Patients after a Fluid-Loading Protocol Guided by the Stroke Volume Variation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Ferrando

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Circulatory failure secondary to hypovolemia is a common situation in critical care patients. Volume replacement is the first option for the treatment of hypovolemia. A possible complication of volume loading is pulmonary edema, quantified at the bedside by the measurement of extravascular lung water index (ELWI. ELWI predicts progression to acute lung injury (ALI in patients with risk factors for developing it. The aim of this study was to assess whether fluid loading guided by the stroke volume variation (SVV, in patients presumed to be hypovolemic, increased ELWI or not. Methods. Prospective study of 17 consecutive postoperative, fully mechanically ventilated patients diagnosed with circulatory failure secondary to presumed hypovolemia were included. Cardiac index (CI, ELWI, SVV, and global end-diastolic volume index (GEDI were determined using the transpulmonary thermodilution technique during the first 12 hours after fluid loading. Volume replacement was done with a strict hemodynamic protocol. Results. Fluid loading produced a significant increase in CI and a decrease in SVV. ELWI did not increase. No correlation was found between the amount of fluids administered and the change in ELWI. Conclusion. Fluid loading guided by SVV in hypovolemic and fully mechanically ventilated patients in sinus rhythm does not increase ELWI.

Effect of different seated positions on lung volume and oxygenation in acute respiratory distress syndrome.

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Dellamonica, J; Lerolle, N; Sargentini, C; Hubert, S; Beduneau, G; Di Marco, F; Mercat, A; Diehl, J L; Richard, J C M; Bernardin, G; Brochard, L

2013-06-01

Lung volume available for ventilation is markedly decreased during acute respiratory distress syndrome. Body positioning may contribute to increase lung volume and partial verticalization is simple to perform. This study evaluated whether verticalization had parallel effects on oxygenation and end expiratory lung volume (EELV). Prospective multicenter study in 40 mechanically ventilated patients with ALI/ARDS in five university hospital MICUs. We evaluated four 45-min successive trunk position epochs (supine slightly elevated at 15°; semi recumbent with trunk elevated at 45°; seated with trunk elevated at 60° and legs down at 45°; back to supine). Arterial blood gases, EELV measured using the nitrogen washin/washout, and static compliance were measured. Responders were defined by a PaO₂/FiO₂ increase >20 % between supine and seated position. Results are median [25th-75th percentiles]. With median PEEP = 10 cmH₂O, verticalization increased lung volume but only responders (13 patients, 32 %) had a significant increase in EELV/PBW (predicted body weight) compared to baseline. This increase persisted at least partially when patients were positioned back to supine. Responders had a lower EELV/PBW supine [14 mL/kg (13-15) vs. 18 mL/kg (15-27) (p = 0.005)] and a lower compliance [30 mL/cmH₂O (22-38) vs. 42 (30-46) (p = 0.01)] than non-responders. Strain decreased with verticalization for responders. EELV/PBW increase and PaO₂/FiO₂ increase were not correlated. Verticalization is easily achieved and improves oxygenation in approximately 32 % of the patients together with an increase in EELV. Nonetheless, effect of verticalization on EELV/PBW is not predictable by PaO₂/FiO₂ increase, its monitoring may be helpful for strain optimization.

Anatomic features of the neck as predictive markers of difficult direct laryngoscopy in men and women: A prospective study.

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Liaskou, Chara; Chara, Liaskou; Vouzounerakis, Eleftherios; Eleftherios, Vouzounerakis; Moirasgenti, Maria; Maria, Moirasgenti; Trikoupi, Anastasia; Anastasia, Trikoupi; Staikou, Chryssoula; Chryssoula, Staikou

2014-03-01

Difficult airway assessment is based on various anatomic parameters of upper airway, much of it being concentrated on oral cavity and the pharyngeal structures. The diagnostic value of tests based on neck anatomy in predicting difficult laryngoscopy was assessed in this prospective, open cohort study. We studied 341 adult patients scheduled to receive general anaesthesia. Thyromental distance (TMD), sternomental distance (STMD), ratio of height to thyromental distance (RHTMD) and neck circumference (NC) were measured pre-operatively. The laryngoscopic view was classified according to the Cormack-Lehane Grade (1-4). Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Cormack-Lehane Grade 3 or 4. The optimal cut-off points for each variable were identified by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each test. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression, including all variables, was used to create a predictive model. Comparisons between genders were also performed. Laryngoscopy was difficult in 12.6% of the patients. The cut-off values were: TMD ≤7 cm, STMD ≤15 cm, RHTMD >18.4 and NC >37.5 cm. The RHTMD had the highest sensitivity (88.4%) and NPV (95.2%), while TMD had the highest specificity (83.9%). The area under curve (AUC) for the TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC was 0.63, 0.64, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively. The predictive model exhibited a higher and statistically significant diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.68, P < 0.001). Gender-specific cut-off points improved the predictive accuracy of NC in women (AUC: 0.65). The TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC were found to be poor single predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, while a model including all four variables had a significant predictive accuracy. Among the studied tests, gender-specific cut-off points should be used for NC.

The predictive value of ePAQ in the urodynamic diagnoses-A prospective cohort study.

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McCooty, Shanteela; Nightingale, Peter; Latthe, Pallavi

2018-01-01

To assess whether the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire-Pelvic Floor (ePAQ-PF) had accuracy in predicting the urodynamic diagnoses of Detrusor Overactivity (DO) and/or Urodynamic Stress Incontinence (USI). Tertiary urogynaecology unit linked to an academic university teaching hospital. Consecutive women who presented with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and were booked to have urodynamic studies. Women completed an ePAQ-PF prior to having urodynamics (UDS) by clinicians who were blinded to the ePAQ-PF results while conducting this procedure. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed for predictive accuracy of overactive bladder (OAB) score in DO and of stress urinary incontinence (SUI) score in USI. Prospective cohort study designed to meet the requirements of the standards for reporting of diagnostic accuracy (STARD). 390 women with a mean age of 54.2 (range 21-92) years were recruited. The majority (n = 294; 75%) were White Caucasian and had two children (n = 157; 40.3%). Of them, 67.2% (n = 262) had DO and USI was confirmed in 21.5% (n = 84). The area under the ROC curve for DO was 0.704 (95% confidence interval 0.650-0.759) and for USI it was 0.731 (95% confidence interval 0.652-0.778). The OAB and SUI scores on the ePAQ-PF demonstrated that they are fair predictors in diagnosing DO and USI. As the OAB and SUI score on ePAQ-PF increased so did the likelihood of DO (up to a score of 75) and USI on UDS. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The early predictive value of a decrease of metabolic tumor volume in repeated 18F-FDG PET/CT for recurrence of locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer with concurrent radiochemotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Wei; Liu, Bo; Fan, Min; Zhou, Tao; Fu, Zheng; Zhang, Zicheng; Li, Hongsheng; Li, Baosheng

2015-01-01

Highlights: •The patients underwent the second FDG PET during the early stage of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). •To our knowledge, this could be the first study showing that the repeated FDG PET during the early stage of CCRT has added value by being a prognostic factor for recurrence of the locally advanced NSCLC patients. •This is a result of continuous research. •The decrease of MTV was the only significant risk factor for recurrence. -- Abstract: Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the value of [ 18 F] fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography ( 18 F FDG PET/CT) to predict recurrence of patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) during the early stage of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Methods: A total of 53 stage III NSCLC patients without diabetics or undergoing surgery were enrolled in the prospective study. Those patients were evaluated by FDG PET before and following 40 Gy radiotherapy (RT) with a concurrent cisplatin-based heterogeneous chemotherapy regimen. Semiquantitative assessment was used to determine maximum and mean SUVs (SUVmax/SUVmean) and metabolic tumor volume (MTV) of the primary tumor. The prognostic significance of PET/CT parameters and other clinical variables was assessed using Cox regression analyses. The cutoffs of PET/CT parameters which have been determined by the previous study were used to separate the groups with Kaplan–Meier curves. Results: Recurrence rates at 1- and 2-years were 18.9% (10/53) and 50.9% (27/53) for all patients, respectively. Cox regression analysis showed that the only prognostic factor for recurrence was a decrease of MTV. Using the cutoff of 29.7%, a decrease of MTV can separate the patients into 2 groups with Kaplan–Meier curve successfully. Conclusion: The prospective study has reinforced the early predictive value of MTV in repeated 18 F-FDG PET/CT for recurrence in a subgroup of locally advanced NSCLC who underwent CCRT. A

Activation volume and interaction of metal particulate media

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Tetsukawa, Hiroki [Sony Corporation, 6-7-35 Kitashinagawa, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo 141-0001 (Japan)]. E-mail: tetsukaw@arc.sony.co.jp; Kondo, Hirofumi [Sony Corporation, 6-7-35 Kitashinagawa, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo 141-0001 (Japan)

2005-09-15

We have investigated the activation volume (V{sub ac}) and magnetostatic interaction of metal particulate (MP) media. The activation volume of MP media decreases with the decrease of physical volume (V{sub phy}) of metal particles. The activation volume and the ratio of V{sub phy}/V{sub ac} of advanced metal particles are 6x10{sup -24}m{sup 3} and 1.5, respectively. It can be predicted that the physical volume of metal particle is about 3x10{sup -24}m{sup 3} when the physical volume is equal to the activation volume. This value is agreement with the practical lower limit of physical volume of metal particle predicted by Sharrock. The negative interaction (demagnetization effect) in MP media decreases with low saturation magnetization of the metal particles, a thin magnetic layer, a high orientation of MP media, and a low packing fraction of metal particles in the MP media. The activation volume of the MP media decreased as the negative interactions decreased. In advanced MP media with low M{sub r}.t (M{sub r}=remanent magnetization and t=thickness), the influence of interaction on the activation volume is reduced.

Activation volume and interaction of metal particulate media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tetsukawa, Hiroki; Kondo, Hirofumi

2005-01-01

We have investigated the activation volume (V ac ) and magnetostatic interaction of metal particulate (MP) media. The activation volume of MP media decreases with the decrease of physical volume (V phy ) of metal particles. The activation volume and the ratio of V phy /V ac of advanced metal particles are 6x10 -24 m 3 and 1.5, respectively. It can be predicted that the physical volume of metal particle is about 3x10 -24 m 3 when the physical volume is equal to the activation volume. This value is agreement with the practical lower limit of physical volume of metal particle predicted by Sharrock. The negative interaction (demagnetization effect) in MP media decreases with low saturation magnetization of the metal particles, a thin magnetic layer, a high orientation of MP media, and a low packing fraction of metal particles in the MP media. The activation volume of the MP media decreased as the negative interactions decreased. In advanced MP media with low M r .t (M r =remanent magnetization and t=thickness), the influence of interaction on the activation volume is reduced

Understanding the heterogeneity in volume overload and fluid distribution in decompensated heart failure is key to optimal volume management: role for blood volume quantitation.

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Miller, Wayne L; Mullan, Brian P

2014-06-01

This study sought to quantitate total blood volume (TBV) in patients hospitalized for decompensated chronic heart failure (DCHF) and to determine the extent of volume overload, and the magnitude and distribution of blood volume and body water changes following diuretic therapy. The accurate assessment and management of volume overload in patients with DCHF remains problematic. TBV was measured by a radiolabeled-albumin dilution technique with intravascular volume, pre-to-post-diuretic therapy, evaluated at hospital admission and at discharge. Change in body weight in relation to quantitated TBV was used to determine interstitial volume contribution to total fluid loss. Twenty-six patients were prospectively evaluated. Two patients had normal TBV at admission. Twenty-four patients were hypervolemic with TBV (7.4 ± 1.6 liters) increased by +39 ± 22% (range, +9.5% to +107%) above the expected normal volume. With diuresis, TBV decreased marginally (+30 ± 16%). Body weight declined by 6.9 ± 5.2 kg, and fluid intake/fluid output was a net negative 8.4 ± 5.2 liters. Interstitial compartment fluid loss was calculated at 6.2 ± 4.0 liters, accounting for 85 ± 15% of the total fluid reduction. TBV analysis demonstrated a wide range in the extent of intravascular overload. Dismissal measurements revealed marginally reduced intravascular volume post-diuretic therapy despite large reductions in body weight. Mobilization of interstitial fluid to the intravascular compartment with diuresis accounted for this disparity. Intravascular volume, however, remained increased at dismissal. The extent, composition, and distribution of volume overload are highly variable in DCHF, and this variability needs to be taken into account in the approach to individualized therapy. TBV quantitation, particularly serial measurements, can facilitate informed volume management with respect to a goal of treating to euvolemia. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published

Sense of coherence predicts post-myocardial infarction trajectory of leisure time physical activity: a prospective cohort study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerber Yariv

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical activity confers a survival advantage after myocardial infarction (MI, yet the majority of post-MI patients are not regularly active. Since sense of coherence (SOC has been associated with health outcomes and some health behaviours, we investigated whether it plays a role in post-MI physical activity. We examined the predictive role of SOC in the long-term trajectory of leisure time physical activity (LTPA after MI using a prospective cohort design. Methods A cohort of 643 patients aged ≤ 65 years admitted to hospital in central Israel with incident MI between February 1992 and February 1993 were followed up for 13 years. Socioeconomic, clinical and psychological factors, including SOC, were assessed at baseline, and LTPA was self-reported on 5 separate occasions during follow-up. The predictive role of SOC in long-term trajectory of LTPA was assessed using generalized estimating equations. Results SOC was consistently associated with engagement in LTPA throughout follow-up. Patients in the lowest SOC tertile had almost twice the odds (odds ratio,1.99; 95% confidence interval,1.52-2.60 of decreasing their engagement in LTPA as those in the highest tertile. A strong association remained after controlling for disease severity, depression, sociodemographic and clinical factors. Conclusion Our evidence suggests that SOC predicts LTPA trajectory post-MI. Assessment of SOC can help identify high-risk MI survivors, who may require additional help in following secondary prevention recommendations which can dramatically improve prognosis.

Impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity and sedentary behaviors, but not reflective intentions, prospectively predict non-exercise activity thermogenesis.

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Cheval, Boris; Sarrazin, Philippe; Pelletier, Luc

2014-01-01

Understanding the determinants of non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) is crucial, given its extensive health benefits. Some scholars have assumed that a proneness to react differently to environmental cues promoting sedentary versus active behaviors could be responsible for inter-individual differences in NEAT. In line with this reflection and grounded on the Reflective-Impulsive Model, we test the assumption that impulsive processes related to sedentary and physical activity behaviors can prospectively predict NEAT, operationalized as spontaneous effort exerted to maintain low intensity muscle contractions within the release phases of an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. Participants (n = 91) completed a questionnaire assessing their intentions to adopt physical activity behaviors and a manikin task to assess impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity behaviors (IAPA) and sedentary behaviors (IASB). Participants were then instructed to perform a maximal handgrip strength task and an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. As hypothesized, multilevel regression analyses revealed that spontaneous effort was (a) positively predicted by IAPA, (b) negatively predicted by IASB, and (c) was not predicted by physical activity intentions, after controlling for some confounding variables such as age, sex, usual PA level and average force provided during the maximal-contraction phases of the task. These effects remained constant throughout all the phases of the task. This study demonstrated that impulsive processes may play a unique role in predicting spontaneous physical activity behaviors. Theoretically, this finding reinforces the utility of a motivational approach based on dual-process models to explain inter-individual differences in NEAT. Implications for health behavior theories and behavior change interventions are outlined.

Subjective but Not Actigraphy-Defined Sleep Predicts Next-Day Fatigue in Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: A Prospective Daily Diary Study.

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Russell, Charlotte; Wearden, Alison J; Fairclough, Gillian; Emsley, Richard A; Kyle, Simon D

2016-04-01

This study aimed to (1) examine the relationship between subjective and actigraphy-defined sleep, and next-day fatigue in chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS); and (2) investigate the potential mediating role of negative mood on this relationship. We also sought to examine the effect of presleep arousal on perceptions of sleep. Twenty-seven adults meeting the Oxford criteria for CFS and self-identifying as experiencing sleep difficulties were recruited to take part in a prospective daily diary study, enabling symptom capture in real time over a 6-day period. A paper diary was used to record nightly subjective sleep and presleep arousal. Mood and fatigue symptoms were rated four times each day. Actigraphy was employed to provide objective estimations of sleep duration and continuity. Multilevel modelling revealed that subjective sleep variables, namely sleep quality, efficiency, and perceiving sleep to be unrefreshing, predicted following-day fatigue levels, with poorer subjective sleep related to increased fatigue. Lower subjective sleep efficiency and perceiving sleep as unrefreshing predicted reduced variance in fatigue across the following day. Negative mood on waking partially mediated these relationships. Increased presleep cognitive and somatic arousal predicted self-reported poor sleep. Actigraphy-defined sleep, however, was not found to predict following-day fatigue. For the first time we show that nightly subjective sleep predicts next-day fatigue in CFS and identify important factors driving this relationship. Our data suggest that sleep specific interventions, targeting presleep arousal, perceptions of sleep and negative mood on waking, may improve fatigue in CFS. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Target volume for postoperative radiotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer: Results from a prospective trial

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kępka, Lucyna; Bujko, Krzysztof; Bujko, Magdalena; Matecka-Nowak, Mirosława; Salata, Andrzej; Janowski, Henryk; Rogowska, Danuta; Cieślak-Żerańska, Ewa; Komosińska, Katarzyna; Zawadzka, Anna

2013-01-01

Background and purpose: A previous prospective trial reported that three-dimensional conformal postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) for pN2 NSCLC patients using a limited clinical target volume (CTV) had a late morbidity rate and pulmonary function that did not differ from those observed in pN1 patients treated with surgery without PORT. The aim of this study was to assess locoregional control and localization of failure in patients treated with PORT. Materials and methods: The pattern of locoregional failure was evaluated retrospectively in 151 of 171 patients included in the PORT arm. The CTV included the involved lymph node stations and those with a risk of invasion >10%. Competing risk analysis was used to assess the incidence of locoregional failure and its location outside the CTV. Results: Overall survival at 5 years was 27.1% with a median follow-up of 67 months for 40 living patients. The 5-year cumulative incidence of locoregional failure was 19.4% (95% CI: 18.2–20.5%) including a failure rate of 2% (95% CI: 0–17%) in locations outside or at the border of the CTV. Conclusions: The use of limited CTV was associated with acceptable risk of geographic miss. Overall locoregional control was similar to that reported by other studies using PORT for pN2 patients

Prediction of boiling points of some organic compounds to be used in volume reduction of liquid radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helal, N.L.; Ezz el-Din, M.R.

2004-01-01

Boiling points determination may help in the evaporation process used to solidify high-level liquid wastes and to reduce the volume of wastes that require disposal. The problem that always encountered is how to choose an appropriate method to determine the boiling points of the liquid wastes which will be able to solve. We introduce this work with the aim to use mathematical descriptors and their applications in predicting boiling points essential for the evaporation process. This work was applied for diverse database of two sets of chemicals that may exist in radioactive wastes. The first set was 59 alcohols and amines (group a) and the second was 11 aniline compounds (group b). The results show that the used mathematical descriptors give a reasonable predictive model for the diverse sets of molecules

Volume overload and adverse outcomes in chronic kidney disease: clinical observational and animal studies.

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Hung, Szu-Chun; Lai, Yi-Shin; Kuo, Ko-Lin; Tarng, Der-Cherng

2015-05-05

Volume overload is frequently encountered and is associated with cardiovascular risk factors in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the relationship between volume overload and adverse outcomes in CKD is not fully understood. A prospective cohort of 338 patients with stage 3 to 5 CKD was followed for a median of 2.1 years. The study participants were stratified by the presence or absence of volume overload, defined as an overhydration index assessed by bioimpedance spectroscopy exceeding 7%, the 90th percentile for the healthy population. The primary outcome was the composite of estimated glomerular filtration rate decline ≥50% or end-stage renal disease. The secondary outcome included a composite of morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular causes. Animal models were used to simulate fluid retention observed in human CKD. We found that patients with volume overload were at a higher risk of the primary and secondary end points in the adjusted Cox models. Furthermore, overhydration appears to be more important than hypertension in predicting an elevated risk. In rats subjected to unilateral nephrectomy and a high-salt diet, the extracellular water significantly increased. This fluid retention was associated with an increase in blood pressure, proteinuria, renal inflammation with macrophage infiltration and tumor necrosis factor-α overexpression, glomerular sclerosis, and cardiac fibrosis. Diuretic treatment with indapamide attenuated these changes, suggesting that fluid retention might play a role in the development of adverse outcomes. Volume overload contributes to CKD progression and cardiovascular diseases. Further research is warranted to clarify whether the correction of volume overload would improve outcomes for CKD patients. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Very Low Cerebral Blood Volume Predicts Parenchymal Hematoma in Acute Ischemic Stroke

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hermitte, Laure; Cho, Tae-Hee; Ozenne, Brice

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Parenchymal hematoma (PH) may worsen the outcome of patients with stroke. The aim of our study was to confirm the relationship between the volume of very low cerebral blood volume (CBV) and PH using a European multicenter database (I-KNOW). A secondary objective was to exp......BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Parenchymal hematoma (PH) may worsen the outcome of patients with stroke. The aim of our study was to confirm the relationship between the volume of very low cerebral blood volume (CBV) and PH using a European multicenter database (I-KNOW). A secondary objective...

Hopefulness predicts resilience after hereditary colorectal cancer genetic testing: a prospective outcome trajectories study.

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Ho, Samuel M Y; Ho, Judy W C; Bonanno, George A; Chu, Annie T W; Chan, Emily M S

2010-06-11

Genetic testing for hereditary colorectal cancer (HCRC) had significant psychological consequences for test recipients. This prospective longitudinal study investigated the factors that predict psychological resilience in adults undergoing genetic testing for HCRC. A longitudinal study was carried out from April 2003 to August 2006 on Hong Kong Chinese HCRC family members who were recruited and offered genetic testing by the Hereditary Gastrointestinal Cancer Registry to determine psychological outcomes after genetic testing. Self-completed questionnaires were administered immediately before (pre-disclosure baseline) and 2 weeks, 4 months and 1 year after result disclosure. Using validated psychological inventories, the cognitive style of hope was measured at baseline, and the psychological distress of depression and anxiety was measured at all time points. Of the 76 participating subjects, 71 individuals (43 men and 28 women; mean age 38.9 +/- 9.2 years) from nine FAP and 24 HNPCC families completed the study, including 39 mutated gene carriers. Four patterns of outcome trajectories were created using established norms for the specified outcome measures of depression and anxiety. These included chronic dysfunction (13% and 8.7%), recovery (0% and 4.3%), delayed dysfunction (13% and 15.9%) and resilience (76.8% and 66.7%). Two logistic regression analyses were conducted using hope at baseline to predict resilience, with depression and anxiety employed as outcome indicators. Because of the small number of participants, the chronic dysfunction and delayed dysfunction groups were combined into a non-resilient group for comparison with the resilient group in all subsequent analysis. Because of low frequencies, participants exhibiting a recovery trajectory (n = 3 for anxiety and n = 0 for depression) were excluded from further analysis. Both regression equations were significant. Baseline hope was a significant predictor of a resilience outcome trajectory for depression

Effective moduli of high volume fraction particulate composites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, P.; Dharan, C.K.H.

1995-01-01

Predictions using current micromechanics theories for the effective moduli of particulate-reinforced composites tend to break down at high volume fractions of the reinforcing phase. The predictions are usually well below experimentally measured values of the Young's modulus for volume fractions exceeding about 0.6. In this paper, the concept of contiguity, which is a measure of phase continuity, is applied to Mori-Tanaka micromechanics theory. It is shown that contiguity of the second phase increases with volume fraction, leading eventually to a reversal in the roles of the inclusion and matrix. In powder metallurgy practice, it is well known that at high volume fractions, sintering and consolidation of the reinforcement make it increasingly continuous and more like the matrix phase, while the former matrix tends to become more like the inclusion phase. The concept of contiguity applied to micromechanics theory results in very good agreement between the predicted Young's modulus and experimental data on tungsten carbide particulate-reinforced cobalt

Basic Needs as a Predictors of Prospective Teachers' Self-Actualization

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Arslan, Ali

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study is to compare the predictive power of prospective teachers' basic needs on self-actualization. This is a correlational research which is one of the descriptive research methods. The study was conducted on 1033 prospective teachers studying in Bulent Ecevit University Eregli Faculty of Education in the spring term of the…

Estimating wood volume from canopy area in deciduous woodlands ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this study we tested the predictive ability of canopy area in estimating wood volume in deciduous woodlands of Zimbabwe. The study was carried out in four sites of different climatic conditions. We used regression analysis to statistically quantify the prediction of wood volume from canopy area at species and stand level ...

Can Predictive Modeling Identify Head and Neck Oncology Patients at Risk for Readmission?

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Manning, Amy M; Casper, Keith A; Peter, Kay St; Wilson, Keith M; Mark, Jonathan R; Collar, Ryan M

2018-05-01

Objective Unplanned readmission within 30 days is a contributor to health care costs in the United States. The use of predictive modeling during hospitalization to identify patients at risk for readmission offers a novel approach to quality improvement and cost reduction. Study Design Two-phase study including retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data followed by prospective longitudinal study. Setting Tertiary academic medical center. Subjects and Methods Prospectively collected data for patients undergoing surgical treatment for head and neck cancer from January 2013 to January 2015 were used to build predictive models for readmission within 30 days of discharge using logistic regression, classification and regression tree (CART) analysis, and random forests. One model (logistic regression) was then placed prospectively into the discharge workflow from March 2016 to May 2016 to determine the model's ability to predict which patients would be readmitted within 30 days. Results In total, 174 admissions had descriptive data. Thirty-two were excluded due to incomplete data. Logistic regression, CART, and random forest predictive models were constructed using the remaining 142 admissions. When applied to 106 consecutive prospective head and neck oncology patients at the time of discharge, the logistic regression model predicted readmissions with a specificity of 94%, a sensitivity of 47%, a negative predictive value of 90%, and a positive predictive value of 62% (odds ratio, 14.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.02-55.45). Conclusion Prospectively collected head and neck cancer databases can be used to develop predictive models that can accurately predict which patients will be readmitted. This offers valuable support for quality improvement initiatives and readmission-related cost reduction in head and neck cancer care.

[Lung volume reduction surgery for severe pulmonary emphysema in Iceland].

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Gunnarsson, Sverrir I; Johannsson, Kristinn B; Guðjónsdóttir, Marta; Jónsson, Steinn; Beck, Hans J; Magnusson, Bjorn; Gudbjartsson, Tomas

2011-12-01

Lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) can benefit patients with severe emphysema. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcome of LVRS performed in Iceland. A prospective study of 16 consecutive patients who underwent bilateral LVRS through median sternotomy between January 1996 and December 2008. All patients had disabling dyspnea, lung hyperinflation, and emphysema with upper lobe predominance. Preoperatively all patients underwent pulmonary rehabilitation. Spirometry, lung volumes, arterial blood gases and exercise capacity were measured before and after surgery. Mean follow-up time was 8.7 years. Mean age was 59.2 ± 5.9 years. All patients had a history of heavy smoking. There was no perioperative mortality and survival was 100%, 93%, and 63% at 1, 5, and 10 years, respectively. The forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and the forced vital capacity (FVC) improved significantly after surgery by 35% (plung capacity, residual volume and partial pressure of CO2 also showed statistically significant improvements but exercise capacity, O2 consumption and diffusing capacity of the lung for CO did not change. Prolonged air leak (≥ 7 days) was the most common complication (n=7). Five patients required reoperation, most commonly for sternal dehiscence (n=4). In this small prospective study, FEV1 and FVC increased and lung volumes and PaCO2 improved after LVRS. Long term survival was satisfactory although complications such as reoperations for sternal dehiscence were common and hospital stay therefore often prolonged.

The predictive ability of the STarT Back Tool was limited in people with chronic low back pain: a prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kendell, Michelle; Beales, Darren; O'Sullivan, Peter; Rabey, Martin; Hill, Jonathan; Smith, Anne

2018-04-01

In people with chronic non-specific low back pain (LBP), what is the predictive and discriminative validity of the STarT Back Tool (SBT) for pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change at 1-year follow-up? What is the profile of the SBT risk subgroups with respect to demographic variables, pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and psychological measures? Prospective cohort study. A total of 290 adults with dominant axial LBP of≥3months' duration recruited from the general community, and private physiotherapy, psychology, and pain-management clinics in Western Australia. The 1-year follow-up measures were pain intensity, LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change. Outcomes were collected on 264 participants. The SBT categorised 82 participants (28%) as low risk, 116 (40%) as medium risk, and 92 (32%) as high risk. The risk subgroups differed significantly (ppredictive ability was strongest for disability: RR was 2.30 (95% CI 1.28 to 4.10) in the medium-risk group and 2.86 (95% CI 1.60 to 5.11) in the high-risk group. The SBT's predictive ability was weaker for pain: RR was 1.25 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.51) in the medium-risk group and 1.26 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.52) in the high-risk group. For the SBT total score, the AUC was 0.71 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.77) for disability and 0.63 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.71) for pain. This was the first large study to investigate the SBT in a population exclusively with chronic LBP. The SBT provided an acceptable indication of 1-year disability, had poor predictive and discriminative ability for future pain, and was unable to predict or discriminate global perceived change. In this cohort with chronic non-specific LBP, the SBT's predictive and discriminative abilities were restricted to disability at 1year. [Kendell M, Beales D, O'Sullivan P, Rabey M, Hill J, Smith A (2018) The predictive ability of the STarT Back Tool was limited in people with chronic low back pain: a prospective

Pulmonary nodules: sensitivity of maximum intensity projection versus that of volume rendering of 3D multidetector CT data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peloschek, Philipp; Sailer, Johannes; Weber, Michael; Herold, Christian J.; Prokop, Mathias; Schaefer-Prokop, Cornelia

2007-01-01

PURPOSE: To prospectively compare maximum intensity projection (MIP) and volume rendering (VR) of multidetector computed tomographic (CT) data for the detection of small intrapulmonary nodules. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This institutional review board-approved prospective study included 20 oncology

Intraoperative ventilation: incidence and risk factors for receiving large tidal volumes during general anesthesia