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Sample records for volumes prospectively predicted

  1. Pituitary Volume Prospectively Predicts Internalizing Symptoms in Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipursky, Amy R.; Whittle, Sarah; Yucel, Murat; Lorenzetti, Valentina; Wood, Stephen J.; Lubman, Dan I.; Simmons, Julian G.; Allen, Nicholas B.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Early adolescence is a critical time for the development of both internalizing and externalizing disorders. We aimed to investigate whether pituitary volume, an index of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis function, represents a vulnerability factor for the emergence of internalizing and externalizing symptoms during adolescence…

  2. Central venous pressure and shock index predict lack of hemodynamic response to volume expansion in septic shock: a prospective, observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanspa, Michael J; Brown, Samuel M; Hirshberg, Eliotte L; Jones, Jason P; Grissom, Colin K

    2012-12-01

    Volume expansion is a common therapeutic intervention in septic shock, although patient response to the intervention is difficult to predict. Central venous pressure (CVP) and shock index have been used independently to guide volume expansion, although their use is questionable. We hypothesize that a combination of these measurements will be useful. In a prospective, observational study, patients with early septic shock received 10-mL/kg volume expansion at their treating physician's discretion after brief initial resuscitation in the emergency department. Central venous pressure and shock index were measured before volume expansion interventions. Cardiac index was measured immediately before and after the volume expansion using transthoracic echocardiography. Hemodynamic response was defined as an increase in a cardiac index of 15% or greater. Thirty-four volume expansions were observed in 25 patients. A CVP of 8 mm Hg or greater and a shock index of 1 beat min(-1) mm Hg(-1) or less individually had a good negative predictive value (83% and 88%, respectively). Of 34 volume expansions, the combination of both a high CVP and a low shock index was extremely unlikely to elicit hemodynamic response (negative predictive value, 93%; P = .02). Volume expansion in patients with early septic shock with a CVP of 8 mm Hg or greater and a shock index of 1 beat min(-1) mm Hg(-1) or less is unlikely to lead to an increase in cardiac index. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Noninvasive pulse pressure variation and stroke volume variation to predict fluid responsiveness at multiple thresholds : a prospective observational study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Jaap Jan; Poterman, Marieke; Papineau Salm, Pieternel; Van Amsterdam, Kai; Struys, Michel M. R. F.; Scheeren, Thomas W. L.; Kalmar, Alain F.

    2015-01-01

    Pulse pressure variation (PPV) and stroke volume variation (SVV) are dynamic preload variables that can be measured noninvasively to assess fluid responsiveness (FR) in anesthetized patients with mechanical ventilation. Few studies have examined the effectiveness of predicting FR according to the

  4. Contrast-enhanced T1 mapping-based extracellular volume fraction independently predicts clinical outcome in patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy: a prospective cohort study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Youn, Jong-Chan [Hallym University College of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Dongtan Sacred Heart Hospital, Hwaseong (Korea, Republic of); Yonsei University College of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Severance Cardiovascular Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Yoo Jin; Lee, Hye-Jeong; Han, Kyunghwa; Suh, Young Joo; Hur, Jin; Kim, Young Jin; Choi, Byoung Wook [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Research Institute of Radiological Science, Severance Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Shim, Chi Young; Hong, Geu-Ru; Kang, Seok-Min [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Severance Cardiovascular Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-09-15

    We aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR)-based extracellular volume fraction (ECV) in patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM) and compare it with late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) parameters. This was a single-center, prospective, cohort study of 117 NIDCM patients (71 men, 51.9 ± 16.7 years) who underwent clinical 3.0-T CMR. Myocardial ECV and LGE were quantified on the left ventricular myocardium. The presence of midwall LGE was also detected. Nineteen healthy subjects served as controls. The primary end points were cardiovascular (CV) events defined by CV death, rehospitalization due to heart failure, and heart transplantation. During the follow-up period (median duration, 11.2 months; 25{sup th}-75{sup th} percentile, 7.8-21.9 months), the primary end points occurred in 19 patients (16.2%). The ECV (per 3% and 1% increase) was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.80 and 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-2.20 and 1.14-1.30, respectively; p < 0.001) for the CV events. Multivariable analysis also indicated that ECV was an independent prognostic factor and had a higher prognostic value (Harrell's c statistic, 0.88) than LGE quantification values (0.77) or midwall LGE (0.80). CMR-based ECV independently predicts the clinical outcome in NIDCM patients. (orig.)

  5. Early Prediction of Outcome in Advanced Head-and-Neck Cancer Based on Tumor Blood Volume Alterations During Therapy: A Prospective Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Yue; Popovtzer, Aron; Li, Diana; Chepeha, Douglas B.; Moyer, Jeffrey S.; Prince, Mark E.; Worden, Francis; Teknos, Theodoros; Bradford, Carol; Mukherji, Suresh K.; Eisbruch, Avraham

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: To assess whether alterations in tumor blood volume (BV) and blood flow (BF) during the early course of chemo-radiotherapy (chemo-RT) for head-and-neck cancer (HNC) predict treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: Fourteen patients receiving concomitant chemo-RT for nonresectable, locally advanced HNC underwent dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI scans before therapy and 2 weeks after initiation of chemo-RT. The BV and BF were quantified from DCE MRI. Preradiotherapy BV and BF, as well as their changes during RT, were evaluated separately in the primary gross tumor volume (GTV) and nodal GTV for association with outcomes. Results: At a median follow-up of 10 months (range, 5-27 months), 9 patients had local-regional controlled disease. One patient had regional failure, 3 had local failures, and 1 had local-regional failure. Reduction in tumor volume after 2 weeks of chemo-RT did not predict for local control. In contrast, the BV in the primary GTV after 2 weeks of chemo-RT was increased significantly in the local control patients compared with the local failure patients (p < 0.03). Conclusions: Our data suggest that an increase in available primary tumor blood for oxygen extraction during the early course of RT is associated with local control, thus yielding a predictor with potential to modify treatment. These findings require validation in larger studies

  6. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  7. Inclusion of functional information from perfusion SPECT improves predictive value of dose-volume parameters in lung toxicity outcome after radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer: A prospective study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farr, Katherina P; Kallehauge, Jesper F; Møller, Ditte S

    2015-01-01

    for corresponding standard parameters, but they were not significantly different from each other. CONCLUSION: SPECT-based functional parameters were better to predict the risk of RP compared to standard CT-based dose-volume parameters. Functional parameters may be useful to guide radiotherapy planning in order...

  8. Prediction and error of baldcypress stem volume from stump diameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard R. Parresol

    1998-01-01

    The need to estimate the volume of removals occurs for many reasons, such as in trespass cases, severance tax reports, and post-harvest assessments. A logarithmic model is presented for prediction of baldcypress total stem cubic foot volume using stump diameter as the independent variable. Because the error of prediction is as important as the volume estimate, the...

  9. Effects of uncertainty in model predictions of individual tree volume on large area volume estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts; James A. Westfall

    2014-01-01

    Forest inventory estimates of tree volume for large areas are typically calculated by adding model predictions of volumes for individual trees. However, the uncertainty in the model predictions is generally ignored with the result that the precision of the large area volume estimates is overestimated. The primary study objective was to estimate the effects of model...

  10. Striatal volume predicts level of video game skill acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Basak, Chandramallika; Neider, Mark B; Prakash, Ruchika S; Voss, Michelle W; Graybiel, Ann M; Simons, Daniel J; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Kramer, Arthur F

    2010-11-01

    Video game skills transfer to other tasks, but individual differences in performance and in learning and transfer rates make it difficult to identify the source of transfer benefits. We asked whether variability in initial acquisition and of improvement in performance on a demanding video game, the Space Fortress game, could be predicted by variations in the pretraining volume of either of 2 key brain regions implicated in learning and memory: the striatum, implicated in procedural learning and cognitive flexibility, and the hippocampus, implicated in declarative memory. We found that hippocampal volumes did not predict learning improvement but that striatal volumes did. Moreover, for the striatum, the volumes of the dorsal striatum predicted improvement in performance but the volumes of the ventral striatum did not. Both ventral and dorsal striatal volumes predicted early acquisition rates. Furthermore, this early-stage correlation between striatal volumes and learning held regardless of the cognitive flexibility demands of the game versions, whereas the predictive power of the dorsal striatal volumes held selectively for performance improvements in a game version emphasizing cognitive flexibility. These findings suggest a neuroanatomical basis for the superiority of training strategies that promote cognitive flexibility and transfer to untrained tasks.

  11. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  12. Assessment of liver volume with spiral computerized tomography scanning: predicting liver volume by age and height

    OpenAIRE

    Madhu Sharma; Abhishek Singh; Shewtank Goel; Setu Satani; Kavita Mudgil

    2016-01-01

    Background: Estimation of liver size has critical clinical implication. Precise knowledge of liver dimensions and volume is prerequisite for clinical assessment of liver disorders. Liver span as measured by palpation and USG is prone to inter-observer variability and poor repeatability. The aim was to assess the normal liver volume of healthy adults using spiral computed tomography scans and to observe its relationship with various body indices. Methods: In this prospective study, all the...

  13. Drusen Volume and Retinal Pigment Epithelium Abnormal Thinning Volume Predict 2-Year Progression of Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folgar, Francisco A; Yuan, Eric L; Sevilla, Monica B; Chiu, Stephanie J; Farsiu, Sina; Chew, Emily Y; Toth, Cynthia A

    2016-01-01

    To analyze the value of novel measures of retinal pigment epithelium-drusen complex (RPEDC) volume to predict 2-year disease progression of intermediate age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Prospective, observational study. Three hundred forty-five AMD and 122 non-AMD participants enrolled in the Age Related Eye Disease Study 2 Ancillary Spectral-Domain (SD) Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) study. High-density SD OCT macular volumes were obtained at yearly study visits. The RPEDC abnormal thickening (henceforth, OCT drusen) and RPEDC abnormal thinning (RAT) volumes were generated by semiautomated segmentation of total RPEDC within a 5-mm-diameter macular field. Volume change and odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for progression to advanced AMD with choroidal neovascularization (CNV) or central geographic atrophy (GA). Complete volumes were obtained in 265 and 266 AMD eyes and in 115 and 97 control eyes at baseline and at year 2, respectively. In AMD eyes, mean (standard deviation) OCT drusen volume increased from 0.08 mm(3) (0.16 mm(3)) to 0.10 mm(3) (0.23 mm(3); P < 0.001), and RAT volume increased from 8.3 × 10(-4) mm(3) (20.8 × 10(-4) mm(3)) to 18.4 × 10(-4) mm(3) (46.6 × 10(-4) mm(3); P < 0.001). Greater baseline OCT drusen volume was associated with 2-year progression to CNV (P = 0.002). Odds of developing CNV increased by 31% for every 0.1-mm(3) increase in baseline OCT drusen volume (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.06-1.63; P = 0.013). Greater baseline RAT volume was associated with significant 2-year increase in RAT volume (P < 0.001), noncentral GA (P < 0.001), and progression to central GA (P < 0.001). Odds of developing central GA increased by 32% for every 0.001-mm(3) increase in baseline RAT volume (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.14-1.53; P < 0.001). In non-AMD eyes, all volumes were significantly lower than AMD eyes and showed no significant 2-year change. Macular OCT drusen and RAT volumes increased significantly in AMD eyes over 2 years

  14. Pre-treatment amygdala volume predicts electroconvulsive therapy response

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ten Doesschate, Freek; van Eijndhoven, Philip; Tendolkar, Indira; van Wingen, Guido A.; van Waarde, Jeroen A.

    2014-01-01

    Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is an effective treatment for patients with severe depression. Knowledge on factors predicting therapeutic response may help to identify patients who will benefit most from the intervention. Based on the neuroplasticity hypothesis, volumes of the amygdala and

  15. THE PREDICTION OF VOID VOLUME IN SUBCOOLED NUCLEATE POOL BOILING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duke, E. E. [General Dynamics, San Diego, CA (United States)

    1963-11-15

    A three- step equation was developed that adequately describes the average volume of vapor occurring on a horizontal surface due to nucleate pool boiling of subcooled water. Since extensive bubble frequency data are lacking, the data of others were combined with experimental observations to make predictions of void volume at ambient pressure with various degrees of subcooling. (auth)

  16. Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

    2018-03-01

    Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

  17. Features and prospects of juridical predicting of entrepreneurial activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya V. Rubtsova

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to identify characteristics and prospects of predicting the business activity. Methods historical sociological logical systematicstructural formallegal comparativelegal legal modeling method. Results in article suggests the legal definition of prediction of business activity as a scientific and practical study aimed at the determination of the future state and prospects of development of business activity consisting of the evaluation of legal regulation and analysis of the prospectsof further socioeconomic development which aims to select the optimal solution for the further development of entrepreneurship through legal regulators. The work proves the necessity of achieving a balanced legal regulation of social relations by changing the legislation in the field of business agreements investment and innovation. Scientific novelty the article for the first time formulates the concept characteristics and features of legal prediction of business activity substantiates the impact of predicting on the development of legal regulation of social relations. Practical significance the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in research and teaching while considering the issues of predicting both the socioeconomic processes in general and business activity in particular.

  18. Determination of turnover and cushion gas volume of a prospected gas storage reservoir under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubik, A. [RAG-AG Wien (Austria); Baffoe, J.; Schulze-Riegert, R. [SPT Group GmbH, Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-08-01

    Gas storages define a key contribution for building a reliable gas supply chain from production to consumers. In a competitive gas market with short reaction times to seasonal and other gas injection and extraction requirements, gas storages also receive a strong focus on availability and precise prediction estimates for future operation scenarios. Reservoir management workflows are increasingly built on reservoir simulation support for optimizing production schemes and estimating the impact of subsurface uncertainties on field development scenarios. Simulation models for gas storages are calibrated to geological data and accurate reproduction of historical production data are defined as a prerequisite for reliable production and performance forecasts. The underlying model validation process is called history matching, which potentially generates alternative simulation models due to prevailing geological uncertainties. In the past, a single basecase reference model was used to predict production capacities of a gas storage. The working gas volume was precisely defined over a contracted plateau delivery and the required cushion gas volume maintains the reservoir pressure during the operation. Cushion and working gas Volume are strongly dependent on reservoir parameters. In this work an existing depleted gas reservoir and the operation target as a gas storage is described. Key input data to the reservoir model description and simulation is reviewed including production history and geological uncertainties based on large well spacing, limited core and well data and a limited seismic resolution. Target delivery scenarios of the prospected gas storage are evaluated under uncertainty. As one key objective, optimal working gas and cushion gas volumes are described in a probabilistic context reflecting geological uncertainties. Several work steps are defined and included in an integrated workflow design. Equiprobable geological models are generated and evaluated based on

  19. Timing of low tidal volume ventilation and intensive care unit mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome. A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Needham, Dale M; Yang, Ting; Dinglas, Victor D; Mendez-Tellez, Pedro A; Shanholtz, Carl; Sevransky, Jonathan E; Brower, Roy G; Pronovost, Peter J; Colantuoni, Elizabeth

    2015-01-15

    Reducing tidal volume decreases mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). However, the effect of the timing of low tidal volume ventilation is not well understood. To evaluate the association of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality with initial tidal volume and with tidal volume change over time. Multivariable, time-varying Cox regression analysis of a multisite, prospective study of 482 patients with ARDS with 11,558 twice-daily tidal volume assessments (evaluated in milliliter per kilogram of predicted body weight [PBW]) and daily assessment of other mortality predictors. An increase of 1 ml/kg PBW in initial tidal volume was associated with a 23% increase in ICU mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.44; P = 0.008). Moreover, a 1 ml/kg PBW increase in subsequent tidal volumes compared with the initial tidal volume was associated with a 15% increase in mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02-1.29; P = 0.019). Compared with a prototypical patient receiving 8 days with a tidal volume of 6 ml/kg PBW, the absolute increase in ICU mortality (95% CI) of receiving 10 and 8 ml/kg PBW, respectively, across all 8 days was 7.2% (3.0-13.0%) and 2.7% (1.2-4.6%). In scenarios with variation in tidal volume over the 8-day period, mortality was higher when a larger volume was used earlier. Higher tidal volumes shortly after ARDS onset were associated with a greater risk of ICU mortality compared with subsequent tidal volumes. Timely recognition of ARDS and adherence to low tidal volume ventilation is important for reducing mortality. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00300248).

  20. Early adolescent symptoms of social phobia prospectively predict alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahne, Jennifer; Banducci, Anne N; Kurdziel, Gretchen; MacPherson, Laura

    2014-11-01

    The current study examined whether social phobia (SP) symptoms in early adolescence prospectively predicted alcohol use through middle adolescence in a community sample of youth. Data from an ongoing longitudinal study (N = 277) of mechanisms of HIV-related risk behaviors in youth were used to assess the extent to which SP symptoms in early adolescence (mean [SD] age = 11.00 years [0.81]) would predict alcohol use across five annual assessment waves. Adolescents completed measures of SP symptoms, depressive symptoms, and alcohol use at each wave. Higher SP symptoms at baseline predicted higher average odds of alcohol consumption during subsequent waves but did not significantly predict an increase in the odds of alcohol use as a function of time. Within a lagged model, SP symptoms measured at a prior assessment point (1 year earlier) predicted greater odds of drinking alcohol at the following assessment point. Importantly, alcohol use did not significantly predict SP symptoms over time. These results suggest that early SP symptoms are an important risk factor for increased odds of subsequent alcohol use. The present findings highlight that elevated SP symptoms place adolescents at risk for early alcohol use. Early interventions targeting SP symptoms may be crucial for the prevention of problematic alcohol use in early to mid-adolescence. Implications for prevention and treatment approaches are discussed.

  1. Prospects of application of artificial neural networks for forecasting of cargo transportation volume in transport systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Yakupov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research – to identify the prospects for the use of neural network approach in relation to the tasks of economic forecasting of logistics performance, in particular of volume freight traffic in the transport system promiscuous regional freight traffic, as well as to substantiate the effectiveness of the use of artificial neural networks (ANN, as compared with the efficiency of traditional extrapolative methods of forecasting. The authors consider the possibility of forecasting to use ANN for these economic indicators not as an alternative to the traditional methods of statistical forecasting, but as one of the available simple means for solving complex problems.Materials and methods. When predicting the ANN, three methods of learning were used: 1 the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm-network training stops when the generalization ceases to improve, which is shown by the increase in the mean square error of the output value; 2 Bayes regularization method - network training is stopped in accordance with the minimization of adaptive weights; 3 the method of scaled conjugate gradients, which is used to find the local extremum of a function on the basis of information about its values and gradient. The Neural Network Toolbox package is used for forecasting. The neural network model consists of a hidden layer of neurons with a sigmoidal activation function and an output neuron with a linear activation function, the input values of the dynamic time series, and the predicted value is removed from the output. For a more objective assessment of the prospects of the ANN application, the results of the forecast are presented in comparison with the results obtained in predicting the method of exponential smoothing.Results. When predicting the volumes of freight transportation by rail, satisfactory indicators of the verification of forecasting by both the method of exponential smoothing and ANN had been obtained, although the neural network

  2. Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying prospective memory

    OpenAIRE

    Cona, Giorgia; Arcara, Giorgio; Tarantino, Vincenza; Bisiacchi, Patrizia S.

    2015-01-01

    Prospective memory (PM) represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signaled by a warning...

  3. Rumination prospectively predicts executive functioning impairments in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Samantha L; Wagner, Clara A; Shapero, Benjamin G; Pendergast, Laura L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2014-03-01

    The current study tested the resource allocation hypothesis, examining whether baseline rumination or depressive symptom levels prospectively predicted deficits in executive functioning in an adolescent sample. The alternative to this hypothesis was also evaluated by testing whether lower initial levels of executive functioning predicted increases in rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. A community sample of 200 adolescents (ages 12-13) completed measures of depressive symptoms, rumination, and executive functioning at baseline and at a follow-up session approximately 15 months later. Adolescents with higher levels of baseline rumination displayed decreases in selective attention and attentional switching at follow-up. Rumination did not predict changes in working memory or sustained and divided attention. Depressive symptoms were not found to predict significant changes in executive functioning scores at follow-up. Baseline executive functioning was not associated with change in rumination or depression over time. Findings partially support the resource allocation hypothesis that engaging in ruminative thoughts consumes cognitive resources that would otherwise be allocated towards difficult tests of executive functioning. Support was not found for the alternative hypothesis that lower levels of initial executive functioning would predict increased rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Our study is the first to find support for the resource allocation hypothesis using a longitudinal design and an adolescent sample. Findings highlight the potentially detrimental effects of rumination on executive functioning during early adolescence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Predicting the volume of comments on online news stories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsagkias, M.; Weerkamp, W.; de Rijke, M.; Cheung, D.; Song, I.-Y.; Chu, W.; Hu, X.; Lin, J.; Li, J.; Peng, Z.

    2009-01-01

    On-line news agents provide commenting facilities for readers to express their views with regard to news stories. The number of user supplied comments on a news article may be indicative of its importance or impact. We report on exploratory work that predicts the comment volume of news articles

  5. Caudate volumes in childhood predict symptom severity in adults with Tourette syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloch, Michael H; Leckman, James F; Zhu, Hongtu; Peterson, Bradley S

    2005-10-25

    Most children with Tourette syndrome (TS) experience a marked decline in the severity of tic symptoms during adolescence. Currently no clinical measures can predict whose tic symptoms will persist into adulthood. Previous cross-sectional imaging studies have identified reduced caudate nucleus volumes in subjects with TS. To evaluate whether caudate nucleus volumes in childhood can predict the severity of tic or obsessive-compulsive symptoms at follow-up in early adulthood. In a prospective longitudinal study, clinical status and basal ganglia volumes of 43 children with TS were measured on high-resolution magnetic resonance images before age 14 years. Follow-up clinical assessments were conducted after age 16 years, an average of 7.5 years later. Linear regression and Tobit regression analyses were used to assess the association of basal ganglia volumes measured in childhood with the severity of tic and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) symptoms at the time of childhood MRI and at follow-up in early adulthood. Volumes of the caudate nucleus correlated significantly and inversely with the severity of tic and OCD symptoms in early adulthood. Caudate volumes did not correlate with the severity of symptoms at the time of the MRI scan. Caudate volumes in children with Tourette syndrome predict the severity of tic and obsessive-compulsive symptoms in early adulthood. This study provides compelling evidence that morphologic disturbances of the caudate nucleus within cortico-striatal-thalamo-cortical circuits are central to the persistence of both tics and obsessive-compulsive symptoms into adulthood.

  6. Mobile Phone-Based Mood Ratings Prospectively Predict Psychotherapy Attendance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruehlman-Senecal, Emma; Aguilera, Adrian; Schueller, Stephen M

    2017-09-01

    Psychotherapy nonattendance is a costly and pervasive problem. While prior research has identified stable patient-level predictors of attendance, far less is known about dynamic (i.e., time-varying) factors. Identifying dynamic predictors can clarify how clinical states relate to psychotherapy attendance and inform effective "just-in-time" interventions to promote attendance. The present study examines whether daily mood, as measured by responses to automated mobile phone-based text messages, prospectively predicts attendance in group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for depression. Fifty-six Spanish-speaking Latino patients with elevated depressive symptoms (46 women, mean age=50.92years, SD=10.90years), enrolled in a manualized program of group CBT, received daily automated mood-monitoring text messages. Patients' daily mood ratings, message response rate, and delay in responding were recorded. Patients' self-reported mood the day prior to a scheduled psychotherapy session significantly predicted attendance, even after controlling for patients' prior attendance history and age (OR=1.33, 95% CI [1.04, 1.70], p=.02). Positive mood corresponded to a greater likelihood of attendance. Our results demonstrate the clinical utility of automated mood-monitoring text messages in predicting attendance. These results underscore the value of text messaging, and other mobile technologies, as adjuncts to psychotherapy. Future work should explore the use of such monitoring to guide interventions to increase attendance, and ultimately the efficacy of psychotherapy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Fluid responsiveness predicted by transcutaneous partial pressure of oxygen in patients with circulatory failure: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jingyuan; Peng, Xiao; Pan, Chun; Cai, Shixia; Zhang, Xiwen; Xue, Ming; Yang, Yi; Qiu, Haibo

    2017-12-01

    Significant effort has been devoted to defining parameters for predicting fluid responsiveness. Our goal was to study the feasibility of predicting fluid responsiveness by transcutaneous partial pressure of oxygen (PtcO 2 ) in the critically ill patients. This was a single-center prospective study conducted in the intensive care unit of a tertiary care teaching hospital. Shock patients who presented with at least one clinical sign of inadequate tissue perfusion, defined as systolic blood pressure 40 mmHg in previously hypertensive patients or the need for vasopressive drugs; urine output 4 mmol/l, for less than 24 h in the absence of a contraindication for fluids were eligible to participate in the study. PtcO 2 was continuously recorded before and during a passive leg raising (PLR) test, and then before and after a 250 ml rapid saline infusion in 10 min. Fluid responsiveness is defined as a change in the stroke volume ≥10% after 250 ml of volume infusion. Thirty-four patients were included, and 14 responded to volume expansion. In the responders, the mean arterial pressure, central venous pressure, cardiac output, stroke volume and PtcO 2 increased significantly, while the heart rate decreased significantly by both PLR and volume expansion. Changes in the stroke volume induced either by PLR or volume expansion were significantly greater in responders than in non-responders. The correlation between the changes in PtcO 2 and stroke volume induced by volume expansion was significant. Volume expansion induced an increase in the PtcO 2 of 14% and PLR induced an increase in PtcO 2 of 13% predicted fluid responsiveness. This study suggested the changes in PtcO 2 induced by volume expansion and a PLR test predicted fluid responsiveness in critically ill patients. Trial registration NCT02083757.

  8. Personality traits prospectively predict verbal fluency in a lifespan sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutin, Angelina R; Terracciano, Antonio; Kitner-Triolo, Melissa H; Uda, Manuela; Schlessinger, David; Zonderman, Alan B

    2011-12-01

    In a community-dwelling sample (N = 4,790; age range 14-94), we examined whether personality traits prospectively predicted performance on a verbal fluency task. Open, extraverted, and emotionally stable participants had better verbal fluency. At the facet level, dispositionally happy and self-disciplined participants retrieved more words; those prone to anxiety and depression and those who were deliberative retrieved fewer words. Education moderated the association between conscientiousness and fluency such that participants with lower education performed better on the fluency task if they were also conscientious. Age was not a moderator at the domain level, indicating that the personality-fluency associations were consistent across the life span. A disposition toward emotional vulnerability and being less open, less happy, and undisciplined may be detrimental to cognitive performance.

  9. Random forest predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity with small number of prospects and data with missing values in Abra (Philippines)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carranza, Emmanuel John M.; Laborte, Alice G.

    2015-01-01

    Machine learning methods that have been used in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity (e.g., artificial neural networks) invariably require large number of training prospect/locations and are unable to handle missing values in certain evidential data. The Random Forests (RF) algorithm, which is a machine learning method, has recently been applied to data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity, and so it is instructive to further study its efficacy in this particular field. This case study, carried out using data from Abra (Philippines), examines (a) if RF modeling can be used for data-driven modeling of mineral prospectivity in areas with a few (i.e., individual layers of evidential data. Furthermore, RF modeling can handle missing values in evidential data through an RF-based imputation technique whereas in WofE modeling values are simply represented by zero weights. Therefore, the RF algorithm is potentially more useful than existing methods that are currently used for data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity. In particular, it is not a purely black-box method like artificial neural networks in the context of data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity. However, further testing of the method in other areas with a few mineral occurrences is needed to fully investigate its usefulness in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity.

  10. Disorganized Attachment in Infancy Predicts Greater Amygdala Volume in Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons-Ruth, K.; Pechtel, P.; Yoon, S.A.; Anderson, C.M.; Teicher, M.H.

    2016-01-01

    Early life stress in rodents is associated with increased amygdala volume in adulthood. In humans, the amygdala develops rapidly during the first two years of life. Thus, disturbed care during this period may be particularly important to amygdala development. In the context of a 30-year longitudinal study of impoverished, highly stressed families, we assessed whether disorganization of the attachment relationship in infancy was related to amygdala volume in adulthood. Amygdala volumes were assessed among 18 low-income young adults (8M/10F, 29.33±0.49 years) first observed in infancy (8.5±5.6 months) and followed longitudinally to age 29. In infancy (18.58±1.02 mos), both disorganized infant attachment behavior and disrupted maternal communication were assessed in the standard Strange Situation Procedure (SSP). Increased left amygdala volume in adulthood was associated with both maternal and infant components of disorganized attachment interactions at 18 months of age (overall r = .679, p attachment disturbance in adolescence, were not significantly related to left amygdala volume. Left amygdala volume was further associated with dissociation and limbic irritability in adulthood. Finally, left amygdala volume mediated the prediction from attachment disturbance in infancy to limbic irritability in adulthood. Results point to the likely importance of quality of early care for amygdala development in human children as well as in rodents. The long-term prediction found here suggests that the first two years of life may be an early sensitive period for amygdala development during which clinical intervention could have particularly important consequences for later child outcomes. PMID:27060720

  11. Prospects of Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Industries in the Arab Region: Opportunities and Challenges, Volume 1 and Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The publication has been set up as proceedings of the Chemical Engineering conference, Prospects of Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Industries in The Arab Region Opportunities and Challenges., the conference contains of the following subjects: Gas Processing; Oil Refinery Engineering; Petrochemical Industry; Fuels Technologies and Transport Phenomena; Project Management Economics and Control; Materials and Corrosion Engineering; Biochemical and Environmental Engineering; Water Treatment and Pollution Control. This conference consists of two volume and 1534 pages., figs., tabs., refs

  12. Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

  13. Ultrasound cervical length in predicting preterm birth: Prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achour Radhouane

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Preterm birth is a leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality and represents a major public health problem. It is associated with a 15–20 per cent mortality rate and remains responsible for 75 per cent of perinatal deaths in foetuses without anomalies. Aims The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of cervical length measured in the first trimester (11–14 Weeks of amenorrhea “WA” and the second trimester (20–24 Weeks of amenorrhea” WA” in an asymptomatic population of singleton pregnancies to assess the risk of spontaneous preterm birth compared to the digital assessment. Methods We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study involving 117 asymptomatic women with singleton pregnancies between January and December 2015. Results In our study, the clinical examination had a low positive predictive value and a low sensibility for screening women at risk of preterm delivery. Cervical length less than 35mm between 12–14WA and 30mm between 22–24WA predicts the occurrence of preterm birth with a high sensitivity (Se, and specificity (Sp. Conclusion We conclude that ultrasound screening of preterm delivery is now highly recommended.

  14. Volumizing effects of a smooth, highly cohesive, viscous 20-mg/mL hyaluronic acid volumizing filler: prospective European study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoffmann Klaus

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Facial volume loss contributes significantly to facial aging. The 20-mg/mL hyaluronic acid (HA formulation used in this study is a smooth, highly cohesive, viscous, fully reversible, volumizing filler indicated to restore facial volume. This first prospective study evaluated use in current aesthetic clinical practice. Methods A pan-European evaluation conducted under guidelines of the World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research, the trial comprised a baseline visit (visit 1 and a follow-up (visit 2 at 14 ± 7 days posttreatment. Physicians photographed patients at each visit. Each patient was treated with the 20-mg/mL HA volumizing filler as supplied in standard packaging. Procedural details, aesthetic outcomes, safety, and physician and patient ratings of their experience were recorded. Results Fifteen physicians and 70 patients (91% female; mean age: 50 years participated. Mean volume loss at baseline was 3.7 (moderate on the Facial Volume Loss Scale. Local anesthesia was used in 64.3% of cases. Most injections (85% were administered with needles rather than cannulas. Of the 208 injections, 59% were in the malar region, primarily above the periosteum. Subcutaneous injections were most common for other sites. The mean total injection volume per patient was 4.6 mL. The mean volume loss score declined significantly (P Conclusion The 20-mg/mL smooth, highly cohesive, viscous, volumizing HA filler was effective, well tolerated, and easy to use in current clinical practice. Participants were very likely to recommend this product to colleagues and friends, and patients would be very or quite likely to request this product for future treatments.

  15. Regional hippocampal volumes and development predict learning and memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamnes, Christian K; Walhovd, Kristine B; Engvig, Andreas; Grydeland, Håkon; Krogsrud, Stine K; Østby, Ylva; Holland, Dominic; Dale, Anders M; Fjell, Anders M

    2014-01-01

    The hippocampus is an anatomically and functionally heterogeneous structure, but longitudinal studies of its regional development are scarce and it is not known whether protracted maturation of the hippocampus in adolescence is related to memory development. First, we investigated hippocampal subfield development using 170 longitudinally acquired brain magnetic resonance imaging scans from 85 participants aged 8-21 years. Hippocampal subfield volumes were estimated by the use of automated segmentation of 7 subfields, including the cornu ammonis (CA) sectors and the dentate gyrus (DG), while longitudinal subfield volumetric change was quantified using a nonlinear registration procedure. Second, associations between subfield volumes and change and verbal learning/memory across multiple retention intervals (5 min, 30 min and 1 week) were tested. It was hypothesized that short and intermediate memory would be more closely related to CA2-3/CA4-DG and extended, remote memory to CA1. Change rates were significantly different across hippocampal subfields, but nearly all subfields showed significant volume decreases over time throughout adolescence. Several subfield volumes were larger in the right hemisphere and in males, while for change rates there were no hemisphere or sex differences. Partly in support of the hypotheses, greater volume of CA1 and CA2-3 was related to recall and retention after an extended delay, while longitudinal reduction of CA2-3 and CA4-DG was related to learning. This suggests continued regional development of the hippocampus across adolescence and that volume and volume change in specific subfields differentially predict verbal learning and memory over different retention intervals, but future high-resolution studies are called for. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Prospects for accelerator neutron sources for large volume minerals analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, C.G.; Spackman, R.

    1988-01-01

    The electron Linac can be regarded as a practical source of thermal neutrons for activation analysis of large volume mineral samples. With a suitable target and moderator, a neutron flux of about 10 10 n/cm/s over 2-3 kg of rock can be generated. The proton Linac gives the possibility of a high neutron yield (> 10 12 n/s) of fast neutrons at selected energies. For the electron Linac, targets of W-U and W-Be are discussed. The advantages and limitations of the system are demonstrated for the analysis of gold in rocks and ores and for platinum in chromitite. These elements were selected as they are most likely to justify an accelerator installation at the present time. Errors due to self shielding in gold particles for thermal neutrons are discussed. The proton Linac is considered for neutrons generated from a lithium target through the 7 Li(p, n) 7 Be reaction. The analysis of gold by fast neutron activation is considered. This approach avoids particle self-absorption and, by appropriate proton energy selection, avoids potentially dominating interfering reactions. The analysis of 235 U in the presence of 238 U and 232 Th is also considered. (author)

  17. Predictive modelling for swallowing dysfunction after primary (chemo)radiation: results of a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianen, Miranda E M C; Schilstra, Cornelis; Beetz, Ivo; Muijs, Christina T; Chouvalova, Olga; Burlage, Fred R; Doornaert, Patricia; Koken, Phil W; Leemans, C René; Rinkel, Rico N P M; de Bruijn, Marieke J; de Bock, G H; Roodenburg, Jan L N; van der Laan, Bernard F A M; Slotman, Ben J; Verdonck-de Leeuw, Irma M; Bijl, Hendrik P; Langendijk, Johannes A

    2012-10-01

    The purpose of this large multicentre prospective cohort study was to identify which dose volume histogram parameters and pre-treatment factors are most important to predict physician-rated and patient-rated radiation-induced swallowing dysfunction (RISD) in order to develop predictive models for RISD after curative (chemo) radiotherapy ((CH) RT). The study population consisted of 354 consecutive head and neck cancer patients treated with (CH) RT. The primary endpoint was grade 2 or more swallowing dysfunction according to the RTOG/EORTC late radiation morbidity scoring criteria at 6 months after (CH) RT. The secondary endpoints were patient-rated swallowing complaints as assessed with the EORTC QLQ-H&N35 questionnaire. To select the most predictive variables a multivariate logistic regression analysis with bootstrapping was used. At 6 months after (CH) RT the bootstrapping procedure revealed that a model based on the mean dose to the superior pharyngeal constrictor muscle (PCM) and mean dose to the supraglottic larynx was most predictive. For the secondary endpoints different predictive models were found: for problems with swallowing liquids the most predictive factors were the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx and radiation technique (3D-CRT versus IMRT). For problems with swallowing soft food the mean dose to the middle PCM, age (18-65 versus >65 years), tumour site (naso/oropharynx versus other sites) and radiation technique (3D-CRT versus IMRT) were the most predictive factors. For problems with swallowing solid food the most predictive factors were the mean dose to the superior PCM, the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx and age (18-65 versus >65 years). And for choking when swallowing the V60 of the oesophageal inlet muscle and the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx were the most predictive factors. Physician-rated and patient-rated RISD in head and neck cancer patients treated with (CH) RT cannot be predicted with univariate relationships between the

  18. Artificial Intelligence Can Predict Daily Trauma Volume and Average Acuity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonko, David P; Dennis, Bradley M; Betzold, Richard D; Peetz, Allan B; Gunter, Oliver L; Guillamondegui, Oscar D

    2018-04-19

    The goal of this study was to integrate temporal and weather data in order to create an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict trauma volume, the number of emergent operative cases, and average daily acuity at a level 1 trauma center. Trauma admission data from TRACS and weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was collected for all adult trauma patients from July 2013-June 2016. The ANN was constructed using temporal (time, day of week), and weather factors (daily high, active precipitation) to predict four points of daily trauma activity: number of traumas, number of penetrating traumas, average ISS, and number of immediate OR cases per day. We trained a two-layer feed-forward network with 10 sigmoid hidden neurons via the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm, and performed k-fold cross validation and accuracy calculations on 100 randomly generated partitions. 10,612 patients over 1,096 days were identified. The ANN accurately predicted the daily trauma distribution in terms of number of traumas, number of penetrating traumas, number of OR cases, and average daily ISS (combined training correlation coefficient r = 0.9018+/-0.002; validation r = 0.8899+/- 0.005; testing r = 0.8940+/-0.006). We were able to successfully predict trauma and emergent operative volume, and acuity using an ANN by integrating local weather and trauma admission data from a level 1 center. As an example, for June 30, 2016, it predicted 9.93 traumas (actual: 10), and a mean ISS score of 15.99 (actual: 13.12); see figure 3. This may prove useful for predicting trauma needs across the system and hospital administration when allocating limited resources. Level III STUDY TYPE: Prognostic/Epidemiological.

  19. Predicting Hemorrhagic Transformation of Acute Ischemic Stroke: Prospective Validation of the HeRS Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Elisabeth B; Llinas, Rafael H; Schneider, Andrea L C; Hillis, Argye E; Lawrence, Erin; Dziedzic, Peter; Gottesman, Rebecca F

    2016-01-01

    Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) increases the morbidity and mortality of ischemic stroke. Anticoagulation is often indicated in patients with atrial fibrillation, low ejection fraction, or mechanical valves who are hospitalized with acute stroke, but increases the risk of HT. Risk quantification would be useful. Prior studies have investigated risk of systemic hemorrhage in anticoagulated patients, but none looked specifically at HT. In our previously published work, age, infarct volume, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) significantly predicted HT. We created the hemorrhage risk stratification (HeRS) score based on regression coefficients in multivariable modeling and now determine its validity in a prospectively followed inpatient cohort.A total of 241 consecutive patients presenting to 2 academic stroke centers with acute ischemic stroke and an indication for anticoagulation over a 2.75-year period were included. Neuroimaging was evaluated for infarct volume and HT. Hemorrhages were classified as symptomatic versus asymptomatic, and by severity. HeRS scores were calculated for each patient and compared to actual hemorrhage status using receiver operating curve analysis.Area under the curve (AUC) comparing predicted odds of hemorrhage (HeRS score) to actual hemorrhage status was 0.701. Serum glucose (P hemorrhages were more likely to be symptomatic and more severe.The HeRS score is a valid predictor of HT in patients with ischemic stroke and indication for anticoagulation.

  20. Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying Prospective Memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgia eCona

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Prospective memory (PM represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signalled by a warning cue for some participants and was completely unpredictable for others. In the predictable cue condition, the behavioural and ERP correlates of strategic monitoring were observed mainly in the ongoing trials wherein the PM cue was expected. In the unpredictable cue condition they were instead shown throughout the whole PM block. This pattern of results suggests that, in the predictable cue condition, participants engaged monitoring only when subjected to a context wherein the PM cue was expected, and disengaged monitoring when the PM cue was not expected. Conversely, participants in the unpredictable cue condition distributed their resources for strategic monitoring in more continuous manner. The findings of this study support the most recent views – the ‘Dynamic Multiprocess Framework’ and the ‘Attention to Delayed Intention’ (AtoDI model – confirming that strategic monitoring is a flexible mechanism that is recruited mainly when a PM cue is expected and that may interact with bottom-up spontaneous processes.

  1. Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying prospective memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cona, Giorgia; Arcara, Giorgio; Tarantino, Vincenza; Bisiacchi, Patrizia S

    2015-01-01

    Prospective memory (PM) represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signaled by a warning cue) for some participants and was completely unpredictable for others. In the predictable cue condition, the behavioral and ERP correlates of strategic monitoring were observed mainly in the ongoing trials wherein the PM cue was expected. In the unpredictable cue condition they were instead shown throughout the whole PM block. This pattern of results suggests that, in the predictable cue condition, participants engaged monitoring only when subjected to a context wherein the PM cue was expected, and disengaged monitoring when the PM cue was not expected. Conversely, participants in the unpredictable cue condition distributed their resources for strategic monitoring in more continuous manner. The findings of this study support the most recent views-the "Dynamic Multiprocess Framework" and the "Attention to Delayed Intention" (AtoDI) model-confirming that strategic monitoring is a flexible mechanism that is recruited mainly when a PM cue is expected and that may interact with bottom-up spontaneous processes.

  2. Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altgassen, Mareike; Vetter, Nora C; Phillips, Louise H; Akgün, Canan; Kliegel, Matthias

    2014-11-01

    Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether theory of mind and executive control processes (specifically updating, switching, and inhibition) predict prospective memory development across adolescence. In total, 42 adolescents and 41 young adults participated in this study. Young adults outperformed adolescents on tasks of prospective memory, theory of mind, and executive functions. Switching and theory of mind predicted prospective memory performance in adolescents. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A prospective evaluation of hippocampal radiation dose volume effects and memory deficits following cranial irradiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ting Martin; Grimm, Jimm; McIntyre, Riley; Anderson-Keightly, Heather; Kleinberg, Lawrence R; Hales, Russell K; Moore, Joseph; Vannorsdall, Tracy; Redmond, Kristin J

    2017-11-01

    To prospectively evaluate hippocampal radiation dose volume effects and memory decline following cranial irradiation. Effects of hippocampal radiation over a wide range of doses were investigated by combining data from three prospective studies. In one, adults with small cell lung cancer received hippocampal-avoidance prophylactic cranial irradiation. In the other two, adults with glioblastoma multiforme received neural progenitor cell sparing radiation or no sparing with extra dose delivered to subventricular zone. Memory was measured by the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised Delayed Recall (HVLT-R DR) at 6 months after radiation. Dose-volume histograms were generated and dose-response data were fitted to a nonlinear model. Of 60 patients enrolled, 30 were analyzable based on HVLT-R DR testing completion status, baseline HVLT-R DR and intracranial metastasis/recurrence or prior hippocampal resection status. We observed a dose-response of radiation to the hippocampus with regard to decline in HVLT-R DR. D50% of the bilateral hippocampi of 22.1 Gy is associated with 20% risk of decline. This prospective study demonstrates an association between hippocampal dose volume effects and memory decline measured by HVLT-R DR over a wide dose range. These data support a potential benefit of hippocampal sparing and encourage continued trial enrollment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Dark Radiation predictions from general Large Volume Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebecker, Arthur; Mangat, Patrick; Rompineve, Fabrizio; Witkowski, Lukas T.

    2014-09-01

    Recent observations constrain the amount of Dark Radiation (Δ N eff ) and may even hint towards a non-zero value of Δ N eff . It is by now well-known that this puts stringent constraints on the sequestered Large Volume Scenario (LVS), i.e. on LVS realisations with the Standard Model at a singularity. We go beyond this setting by considering LVS models where SM fields are realised on 7-branes in the geometric regime. As we argue, this naturally goes together with high-scale supersymmetry. The abundance of Dark Radiation is determined by the competition between the decay of the lightest modulus to axions, to the SM Higgs and to gauge fields, and leads to strict constraints on these models. Nevertheless, these constructions can in principle meet current DR bounds due to decays into gauge bosons alone. Further, a rather robust prediction for a substantial amount of Dark Radiation can be made. This applies both to cases where the SM 4-cycles are stabilised by D-terms and are small `by accident', i.e. tuning, as well as to fibred models with the small cycles stabilised by loops. In these constructions the DR axion and the QCD axion are the same field and we require a tuning of the initial misalignment to avoid Dark Matter overproduction. Furthermore, we analyse a closely related setting where the SM lives at a singularity but couples to the volume modulus through flavour branes. We conclude that some of the most natural LVS settings with natural values of model parameters lead to Dark Radiation predictions just below the present observational limits. Barring a discovery, rather modest improvements of present Dark Radiation bounds can rule out many of these most simple and generic variants of the LVS.

  5. Evaluation of stroke volume variation obtained by arterial pulse contour analysis to predict fluid responsiveness intraoperatively.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahner, D; Kabon, B; Marschalek, C; Chiari, A; Pestel, G; Kaider, A; Fleischmann, E; Hetz, H

    2009-09-01

    Fluid management guided by oesophageal Doppler monitor has been reported to improve perioperative outcome. Stroke volume variation (SVV) is considered a reliable clinical predictor of fluid responsiveness. Consequently, the aim of the present trial was to evaluate the accuracy of SVV determined by arterial pulse contour (APCO) analysis, using the FloTrac/Vigileo system, to predict fluid responsiveness as measured by the oesophageal Doppler. Patients undergoing major abdominal surgery received intraoperative fluid management guided by oesophageal Doppler monitoring. Fluid boluses of 250 ml each were administered in case of a decrease in corrected flow time (FTc) to 10%. The ability of SVV to predict fluid responsiveness was assessed by calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Twenty patients received 67 fluid boluses. Fifty-two of the 67 fluid boluses administered resulted in fluid responsiveness. SVV achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.512 [confidence interval (CI) 0.32-0.70]. A cut-off point for fluid responsiveness was found for SVV > or =8.5% (sensitivity: 77%; specificity: 43%; positive predictive value: 84%; and negative predictive value: 33%). This prospective, interventional observer-blinded study demonstrates that SVV obtained by APCO, using the FloTrac/Vigileo system, is not a reliable predictor of fluid responsiveness in the setting of major abdominal surgery.

  6. Proton upset rate prediction: a new sensitive volume concept definition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inguimbert, Christophe

    1999-01-01

    We present a model for predicting proton induced single event upset rate. The approach uses heavy ion cross section experimental data combined with nuclear reaction calculations in order to determine the proton upset cross section. The p+Si nuclear reaction as well as the Si(p, p)Si Coulombic scattering are described. The upset rate calculation depends on the energy deposited available in the charge collection region (sensitive region). This region is treated as a rectangular parallelepiped of thickness d at depth h. The sensitive thickness d is used as an input parameter in our model we have developed an original method to probe the sensitive region to evaluate d with reasonable accuracy d. We use short range ions and we propose a new mathematical analysis of these experimental data to determine h and d. This method consists in de-convoluting the heavy ion upset cross section σ_S_E_U(r) by the LET function of the incident ion LET(r) (r is the range of the incident ion). Our results are in relatively good agreement with other models. The accuracy of the method allows us to discuss the validity of the sensitive volume concept. Furthermore, we extrapolate an internal gain factor α that permit to take into account the charge collection mechanisms. α and d serve for quick and reasonably accurate prediction of proton induced SEU cross section in microelectronic devices. (author) [fr

  7. Larger Lateral Prefrontal Cortex Volume Predicts Better Exercise Adherence Among Older Women: Evidence From Two Exercise Training Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Best, John R; Chiu, Bryan K; Hall, Peter A; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

    2017-06-01

    Recent research has suggested an important role of lateral prefrontal cortex (lPFC) in consistent implementation of positive health behaviors and avoidance of negative health behaviors. We examined whether gray matter volume in the lPFC prospectively predicts exercise class attendance among older women (n = 122) who underwent either a 52-week or 26-week exercise training intervention. Structural magnetic resonance imaging determined gray matter volume at baseline. Independent of intracranial volume, age, education, body composition, mobility, depressive symptoms, and general cognitive functioning, larger lPFC volume predicted greater exercise class attendance (all p values exercise adherence as well as identified other regions, especially in the insula and temporal cortex, that predicted exercise adherence. These findings suggest that sustained engagement in exercise training might rely in part on functions of the lPFC and that lPFC volume might be a reasonable proxy for such functions. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

    2009-12-01

    Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

  9. Variation in Annual Volume at a University Hospital Does Not Predict Mortality for Pancreatic Resections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita A. Mukhtar

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Annual volume of pancreatic resections has been shown to affect mortality rates, prompting recommendations to regionalize these procedures to high-volume hospitals. Implementation has been difficult, given the paucity of high-volume centers and the logistical hardships facing patients. Some studies have shown that low-volume hospitals achieve good outcomes as well, suggesting that other factors are involved. We sought to determine whether variations in annual volume affected patient outcomes in 511 patients who underwent pancreatic resections at the University of California, San Francisco between 1990 and 2005. We compared postoperative mortality and complication rates between low, medium, or high volume years, designated by the number of resections performed, adjusting for patient characteristics. Postoperative mortality rates did not differ between high volume years and medium/low volume years. As annual hospital volume of pancreatic resections may not predict outcome, identification of actual predictive factors may allow low-volume centers to achieve excellent outcomes.

  10. Prospective detection of large prediction errors: a hypothesis testing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruan, Dan

    2010-01-01

    Real-time motion management is important in radiotherapy. In addition to effective monitoring schemes, prediction is required to compensate for system latency, so that treatment can be synchronized with tumor motion. However, it is difficult to predict tumor motion at all times, and it is critical to determine when large prediction errors may occur. Such information can be used to pause the treatment beam or adjust monitoring/prediction schemes. In this study, we propose a hypothesis testing approach for detecting instants corresponding to potentially large prediction errors in real time. We treat the future tumor location as a random variable, and obtain its empirical probability distribution with the kernel density estimation-based method. Under the null hypothesis, the model probability is assumed to be a concentrated Gaussian centered at the prediction output. Under the alternative hypothesis, the model distribution is assumed to be non-informative uniform, which reflects the situation that the future position cannot be inferred reliably. We derive the likelihood ratio test (LRT) for this hypothesis testing problem and show that with the method of moments for estimating the null hypothesis Gaussian parameters, the LRT reduces to a simple test on the empirical variance of the predictive random variable. This conforms to the intuition to expect a (potentially) large prediction error when the estimate is associated with high uncertainty, and to expect an accurate prediction when the uncertainty level is low. We tested the proposed method on patient-derived respiratory traces. The 'ground-truth' prediction error was evaluated by comparing the prediction values with retrospective observations, and the large prediction regions were subsequently delineated by thresholding the prediction errors. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to describe the performance of the proposed hypothesis testing method. Clinical implication was represented by miss

  11. Effect of Thyroid Remnant Volume on the Risk of Hypothyroidism After Hemithyroidectomy: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Brian Hung-Hin; Wong, Carlos K H; Wong, Kai Pun; Chu, Kelvin Ka-Wan; Shek, Tony W H

    2017-06-01

    Hypothyroidism is a common sequel after a hemithyroidectomy. Although various risk factors leading to hypothyroidism have been reported, the effect of the contralateral lobe's volume has been understudied. This study aimed to examine the association between the preoperative contralateral lobe's volume and the risk of postoperative hypothyroidism. During a 2-year period, 150 eligible patients undergoing a hemithyroidectomy were evaluated. The volume of the contralateral nonexcised lobe was estimated preoperatively by independent assessors on ultrasonography using the following formula: width (in cm) × depth (in cm) × length (in cm) × (π/6), adjusted for the body surface area (BSA). Postoperative hypothyroidism was defined as serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) exceeding 4.78 mIU/L. Any significant characteristics in the univariate analysis were entered into the multivariate analysis to determine independent factors. After a mean follow-up period of 53.5 ± 9.4 months, 44 patients (29.3 %) experienced postoperative hypothyroidism, and 10 of these patients required thyroxine replacement. Hypothyroidism was associated with a higher preoperative TSH level (p hypothyroidism. Patients with a BSA-adjusted volume smaller than 3.2 ml had a threefold greater hypothyroidism risk than those with a BSA-adjusted volume of 3.2 ml or more (p hypothyroidism risk was observed after hemithyroidectomy. Together with a higher preoperative TSH level and fewer ipsilateral nodules, a smaller BSA-adjusted volume measured by preoperative ultrasonography independently predicted hypothyroidism.

  12. Prediction of traffic fatalities and prospects for mobility becoming ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    edge transfer from developed countries. Four prediction ...... also depends on the average vehicle speed by the dependence of crash avoidance (reaction time, braking .... and political priority of road safety actions. ..... It is a man-made problem.

  13. Spouse's subjective social status predicts older adults' prospective cognitive functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fan; Fung, Helene; Kwok, Timothy

    2017-12-06

    The current study aims to investigate the association between subjective social status (SSS) and prospective cognitive functioning of older adults and their spouses, and to explore the potential mediating roles of health habits and physical activities in this association. Using the longitudinal data of 512 pairs of community-dwelling older couples aged 65-91 years (M = 72.2 ± 4.6), we tested the effects of SSS in cognitive functioning using an Actor-Partner Interdependence Model. SSS was measured by a self-anchoring social ladder, and cognitive functioning was measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination at baseline and 4-year follow-up. Socioeconomic status (i.e. education) was tested as a moderator, and physical activity (measured by the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly) as well as health habits (i.e. tobacco and alcohol consumption) were included as potential mediators. A partner effect of SSS was found only in the low-education group, in which the wife's higher level of SSS in the community was associated with the husband's better cognitive functioning in the follow-up. A small proportion of this effect was found to be partially mediated by participation in housework, such that the wife's higher SSS was associated with the husband's increased housework activity, which was related to higher prospective cognitive functioning. By examining the dyadic effects of SSS with a longitudinal design, our findings extended the understanding on how subjective social status influenced older couples' cognitive health, and provided evidence-based insights for future studies on cognitive health in later life.

  14. Accuracy of formulas used to predict post-transfusion packed cell volume rise in anemic dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Short, Jacqueline L; Diehl, Shenandoah; Seshadri, Ravi; Serrano, Sergi

    2012-08-01

    To assess the accuracy of published formulas used to guide packed red blood cell (pRBC) transfusions in anemic dogs and to compare the predicted rise in packed cell volume (PCV) to the actual post-transfusion rise in PCV. Prospective observational study from April 2009 through July 2009. A small animal emergency and specialty hospital. Thirty-one anemic client-owned dogs that received pRBC transfusions for treatment of anemia. None Four formulas were evaluated to determine their predictive ability with respect to rise in PCV following transfusion with pRBC. Post-transfusion rise in PCV were compared to calculated rise in PCV using 4 different formulas. Bias and limits of agreement were investigated using Bland-Altman analyses. Accuracy of existing formulas to predict rise in PCV following transfusion varied significantly. Formula 1 (volume to be transfused [VT] [mL] = 1 mL × % PCV rise × kg body weight [BW]) overestimated the expected rise in PCV (mean difference, 6.30), while formula 2 (VT [mL] = 2 mL ×% PCV rise × kg BW) underestimated the rise in PCV (mean difference, -3.01). Formula 3 (VT [mL] = 90 mL × kg BW × [(desired PCV - Patient PCV)/PCV of donor blood]) and formula 4 (VT [mL] = 1.5 mL ×% PCV rise × kg BW) performed well (mean difference 0.23 and 0.09, respectively) in predicting rise in PCV following pRBC transfusion. Agreement between 2 formulas, "VT (mL) = kg BW × blood volume (90 mL) × [(desired PCV - recipient PCV)/Donor PCV]" and "VT (mL) = 1.5 ×desired rise in PCV × kg BW," was found when they were compared to the actual rise in PCV following pRBC transfusion in anemic dogs. Further research is warranted to determine whether these formulas perform similarly well for other species. © Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care Society 2012.

  15. Falls prediction in elderly people : A 1-year prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swanenburg, Jaap; de Bruin, Eling D.; Uebelhart, Daniel; Mulder, Theo

    The aim of the present study was to determine whether force plate variables in single- and dual-task situations are able to predict the risk of multiple falls in a community-dwelling elderly population. Two hundred and seventy elderly persons (225 females, 45 males; age, 73 7 years) performed

  16. Predictive equations for lung volumes from computed tomography for size matching in pulmonary transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konheim, Jeremy A; Kon, Zachary N; Pasrija, Chetan; Luo, Qingyang; Sanchez, Pablo G; Garcia, Jose P; Griffith, Bartley P; Jeudy, Jean

    2016-04-01

    Size matching for lung transplantation is widely accomplished using height comparisons between donors and recipients. This gross approximation allows for wide variation in lung size and, potentially, size mismatch. Three-dimensional computed tomography (3D-CT) volumetry comparisons could offer more accurate size matching. Although recipient CT scans are universally available, donor CT scans are rarely performed. Therefore, predicted donor lung volumes could be used for comparison to measured recipient lung volumes, but no such predictive equations exist. We aimed to use 3D-CT volumetry measurements from a normal patient population to generate equations for predicted total lung volume (pTLV), predicted right lung volume (pRLV), and predicted left lung volume (pLLV), for size-matching purposes. Chest CT scans of 400 normal patients were retrospectively evaluated. 3D-CT volumetry was performed to measure total lung volume, right lung volume, and left lung volume of each patient, and predictive equations were generated. The fitted model was tested in a separate group of 100 patients. The model was externally validated by comparison of total lung volume with total lung capacity from pulmonary function tests in a subset of those patients. Age, gender, height, and race were independent predictors of lung volume. In the test group, there were strong linear correlations between predicted and actual lung volumes measured by 3D-CT volumetry for pTLV (r = 0.72), pRLV (r = 0.72), and pLLV (r = 0.69). A strong linear correlation was also observed when comparing pTLV and total lung capacity (r = 0.82). We successfully created a predictive model for pTLV, pRLV, and pLLV. These may serve as reference standards and predict donor lung volume for size matching in lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Subcortical intelligence: caudate volume predicts IQ in healthy adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grazioplene, Rachael G; G Ryman, Sephira; Gray, Jeremy R; Rustichini, Aldo; Jung, Rex E; DeYoung, Colin G

    2015-04-01

    This study examined the association between size of the caudate nuclei and intelligence. Based on the central role of the caudate in learning, as well as neuroimaging studies linking greater caudate volume to better attentional function, verbal ability, and dopamine receptor availability, we hypothesized the existence of a positive association between intelligence and caudate volume in three large independent samples of healthy adults (total N = 517). Regression of IQ onto bilateral caudate volume controlling for age, sex, and total brain volume indicated a significant positive correlation between caudate volume and intelligence, with a comparable magnitude of effect across each of the three samples. No other subcortical structures were independently associated with IQ, suggesting a specific biological link between caudate morphology and intelligence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Hippocampal dose volume histogram predicts Hopkins Verbal Learning Test scores after brain irradiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Okoukoni, PhD

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Radiation-induced cognitive decline is relatively common after treatment for primary and metastatic brain tumors; however, identifying dosimetric parameters that are predictive of radiation-induced cognitive decline is difficult due to the heterogeneity of patient characteristics. The memory function is especially susceptible to radiation effects after treatment. The objective of this study is to correlate volumetric radiation doses received by critical neuroanatomic structures to post–radiation therapy (RT memory impairment. Methods and materials: Between 2008 and 2011, 53 patients with primary brain malignancies were treated with conventionally fractionated RT in prospectively accrued clinical trials performed at our institution. Dose-volume histogram analysis was performed for the hippocampus, parahippocampus, amygdala, and fusiform gyrus. Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised scores were obtained at least 6 months after RT. Impairment was defined as an immediate recall score ≤15. For each anatomic region, serial regression was performed to correlate volume receiving a given dose (VD(Gy with memory impairment. Results: Hippocampal V53.4Gy to V60.9Gy significantly predicted post-RT memory impairment (P < .05. Within this range, the hippocampal V55Gy was the most significant predictor (P = .004. Hippocampal V55Gy of 0%, 25%, and 50% was associated with tumor-induced impairment rates of 14.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2%-28.7%, 45.9% (95% CI, 24.7%-68.6%, and 80.6% (95% CI, 39.2%-96.4%, respectively. Conclusions: The hippocampal V55Gy is a significant predictor for impairment, and a limiting dose below 55 Gy may minimize radiation-induced cognitive impairment.

  19. CT angiography and CT perfusion improve prediction of infarct volume in patients with anterior circulation stroke

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seeters, Tom van; Schaaf, Irene C. van der; Dankbaar, Jan Willem; Horsch, Alexander D.; Niesten, Joris M.; Luitse, Merel J.A.; Mali, Willem P.T.M.; Velthuis, Birgitta K. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Biessels, Geert Jan; Kappelle, L.J. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Neurology, Brain Center Rudolf Magnus, Utrecht (Netherlands); Majoie, Charles B.L.M. [Academic Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Vos, Jan Albert [St. Antonius Hospital, Department of Radiology, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Schonewille, Wouter J. [St. Antonius Hospital, Department of Neurology, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Walderveen, Marianne A.A. van [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Leiden (Netherlands); Wermer, Marieke J.H. [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Leiden (Netherlands); Duijm, Lucien E.M. [Catharina Hospital, Department of Radiology, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Keizer, Koos [Catharina Hospital, Department of Neurology, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Bot, Joseph C.J. [VU University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Visser, Marieke C. [VU University Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Lugt, Aad van der [Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Dippel, Diederik W.J. [Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Kesselring, F.O.H.W. [Rijnstate Hospital, Department of Radiology, Arnhem (Netherlands); Hofmeijer, Jeannette [Rijnstate Hospital, Department of Neurology, Arnhem (Netherlands); Lycklama a Nijeholt, Geert J. [Medical Center Haaglanden, Department of Radiology, The Hague (Netherlands); Boiten, Jelis [Medical Center Haaglanden, Department of Neurology, The Hague (Netherlands); Rooij, Willem Jan van [St. Elisabeth Hospital, Department of Radiology, Tilburg (Netherlands); Kort, Paul L.M. de [St. Elisabeth Hospital, Department of Neurology, Tilburg (Netherlands); Roos, Yvo B.W.E.M. [Academic Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Meijer, Frederick J.A. [Radboud University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Pleiter, C.C. [St. Franciscus Hospital, Department of Radiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Graaf, Yolanda van der [University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht (Netherlands); Collaboration: Dutch acute stroke study (DUST) investigators

    2016-04-15

    We investigated whether baseline CT angiography (CTA) and CT perfusion (CTP) in acute ischemic stroke could improve prediction of infarct presence and infarct volume on follow-up imaging. We analyzed 906 patients with suspected anterior circulation stroke from the prospective multicenter Dutch acute stroke study (DUST). All patients underwent baseline non-contrast CT, CTA, and CTP and follow-up non-contrast CT/MRI after 3 days. Multivariable regression models were developed including patient characteristics and non-contrast CT, and subsequently, CTA and CTP measures were added. The increase in area under the curve (AUC) and R{sup 2} was assessed to determine the additional value of CTA and CTP. At follow-up, 612 patients (67.5 %) had a detectable infarct on CT/MRI; median infarct volume was 14.8 mL (interquartile range (IQR) 2.8-69.6). Regarding infarct presence, the AUC of 0.82 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.85) for patient characteristics and non-contrast CT was improved with addition of CTA measures (AUC 0.85 (95 % CI 0.82-0.87); p < 0.001) and was even higher after addition of CTP measures (AUC 0.89 (95 % CI 0.87-0.91); p < 0.001) and combined CTA/CTP measures (AUC 0.89 (95 % CI 0.87-0.91); p < 0.001). For infarct volume, adding combined CTA/CTP measures (R{sup 2} = 0.58) was superior to patient characteristics and non-contrast CT alone (R{sup 2} = 0.44) and to addition of CTA alone (R{sup 2} = 0.55) or CTP alone (R{sup 2} = 0.54; all p < 0.001). In the acute stage, CTA and CTP have additional value over patient characteristics and non-contrast CT for predicting infarct presence and infarct volume on follow-up imaging. These findings could be applied for patient selection in future trials on ischemic stroke treatment. (orig.)

  20. White Matter Volume Predicts Language Development in Congenital Heart Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollins, Caitlin K; Asaro, Lisa A; Akhondi-Asl, Alireza; Kussman, Barry D; Rivkin, Michael J; Bellinger, David C; Warfield, Simon K; Wypij, David; Newburger, Jane W; Soul, Janet S

    2017-02-01

    To determine whether brain volume is reduced at 1 year of age and whether these volumes are associated with neurodevelopment in biventricular congenital heart disease (CHD) repaired in infancy. Infants with biventricular CHD (n = 48) underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neurodevelopmental testing with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development-II and the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventories at 1 year of age. A multitemplate based probabilistic segmentation algorithm was applied to volumetric MRI data. We compared volumes with those of 13 healthy control infants of comparable ages. In the group with CHD, we measured Spearman correlations between neurodevelopmental outcomes and the residuals from linear regression of the volumes on corrected chronological age at MRI and sex. Compared with controls, infants with CHD had reductions of 54 mL in total brain (P = .009), 40 mL in cerebral white matter (P Development-II scores but did correlate positively with MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventory language development. Infants with biventricular CHD show total brain volume reductions at 1 year of age, driven by differences in cerebral white matter. White matter volume correlates with language development, but not broader developmental indices. These findings suggest that abnormalities in white matter development detected months after corrective heart surgery may contribute to language impairment. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00006183. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Predicting ongoing pregnancy chances after IVF and ICSI: A national prospective study

    OpenAIRE

    Lintsen, Bea; Eijkemans, René; Hunault, C.C.; Bouwmans-Frijters, Clazien; Hakkaart-van Roijen, Leona; Habbema, Dik; Braat, Didi

    2007-01-01

    textabstractBackground: The Dutch IVF guideline suggests triage of patients for IVF based on diagnostic category, duration of infertility and female age. There is no evidence for the effectiveness of these criteria. We evaluated the predictive value of patient characteristics that are used in the Dutch IVF guideline and developed a model that predicts the IVF ongoing pregnancy chance within 12 months. Methods: In a national prospective cohort study, pregnancy chances after IVF and ICSI treatm...

  2. Source-Specific Oppositional Defiant Disorder among Inner-City Children: Prospective Prediction and Moderation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabick, Deborah A. G.; Bubier, Jennifer; Chen, Diane; Price, Julia; Lanza, H. Isabella

    2011-01-01

    We examined prospective prediction from parent- and teacher-reported oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) symptoms to parent-reported ODD, conduct disorder (CD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and generalized anxiety disorder symptoms and whether child executive functioning abilities moderated these relations among an urban, low-income sample of…

  3. Predicting Dyslexia in a Transparent Orthography from Grade 1 Literacy Skills: A Prospective Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pinto, Giuliana; Accorti Gamannossi, Beatrice

    2016-01-01

    We conducted this prospective cohort study to explore the predictability of dyslexia from 1st-grade literacy skills in Italian students. We followed 407 Italian students in primary school from the 1st through the 3rd grades. Students were diagnosed with dyslexia in the 3rd grade. We retrospectively tested participants' 1st-grade performance in…

  4. Persistent type II endoleak after EVAR: the predictive value of the AAA thrombus volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallitto, Enrico; Gargiulo, Mauro; Mascoli, Chiara; Freyrie, Antonio; DE Matteis, Massimo; Serra, Carla; Bianchini Massoni, Claudio; Faggioli, Gianluca; Stella, Andrea

    2018-02-01

    Persistent type II endoleaks (ELIIp, ≥6 months) after an endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) can be associated with adverse outcomes. The aims of this study are the evaluation of the incidence of ELIIp, their preoperative morphological predictive features (PMF) and the post-EVAR abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) evolution in the presence of ELIIp. Patients underwent EVAR between 2008 and 2010 were prospectively collected. Cases with ELIIp (group A: AG) were identified. A control group without ELIIp (group B: BG), homogeneous for clinical characteristics, follow-up timing and methods (CTA and/or CEUS at 6.12 months and yearly thereafter) was retrospectively selected. The PMF evaluated by computed-tomography-angiography (CTA) were: AAA-diameter, number and diameter of AAA efferent patent vessels (EPV), AAA-total volume (TV), AAA-thrombus volume (THV) and TV/THV rate (%VR). Volumes were calculated by the dedicated vessels analysis software. AG and BG were compared. The primary endpoint was to evaluate the incidence of ELIIp. Secondary endpoints were to analyze the relation between PMF and ELIIp and to assess the post-EVAR AAA-evolution in the presence of ELIIp. Between 2008 and 2010, 200 patients underwent EVAR to treat AAA electively. An ELIIp was detected in 35cases (17.5%) (AG). Twenty-seven patients (13.5%) were included in BG. An overall of 62 patients (GA+GB) were analyzed. The mean pre-operative AAA diameter and EPV were 58±11.6 mm and 5.5±1.8 mm, respectively. The mean TV and THV were 187±111.5 cc and 82±75 cc, respectively. The median %VR was 42.3%. ELIIp was correlated to EPV≥6 (χ2, p=.015) and %VR AAA growth post-EVAR. ELIIp is a not rare complication and it could require re-interventions. Our data suggest that VEP≥6 or %VT<40% are risk factors for ELIIp. No PMF was able to predict the ELIIp evolution. The relative high rate of re-interventions, could suggest the need of adjunctive/preventing primary procedures in patients at high-risk for ELIIp.

  5. The BREAST-V: a unifying predictive formula for volume assessment in small, medium, and large breasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, Benedetto; Farcomeni, Alessio; Ferri, Germano; Campanale, Antonella; Sorotos, Micheal; Santanelli, Fabio

    2013-07-01

    Breast volume assessment enhances preoperative planning of both aesthetic and reconstructive procedures, helping the surgeon in the decision-making process of shaping the breast. Numerous methods of breast size determination are currently reported but are limited by methodologic flaws and variable estimations. The authors aimed to develop a unifying predictive formula for volume assessment in small to large breasts based on anthropomorphic values. Ten anthropomorphic breast measurements and direct volumes of 108 mastectomy specimens from 88 women were collected prospectively. The authors performed a multivariate regression to build the optimal model for development of the predictive formula. The final model was then internally validated. A previously published formula was used as a reference. Mean (±SD) breast weight was 527.9 ± 227.6 g (range, 150 to 1250 g). After model selection, sternal notch-to-nipple, inframammary fold-to-nipple, and inframammary fold-to-fold projection distances emerged as the most important predictors. The resulting formula (the BREAST-V) showed an adjusted R of 0.73. The estimated expected absolute error on new breasts is 89.7 g (95 percent CI, 62.4 to 119.1 g) and the expected relative error is 18.4 percent (95 percent CI, 12.9 to 24.3 percent). Application of reference formula on the sample yielded worse predictions than those derived by the formula, showing an R of 0.55. The BREAST-V is a reliable tool for predicting small to large breast volumes accurately for use as a complementary device in surgeon evaluation. An app entitled BREAST-V for both iOS and Android devices is currently available for free download in the Apple App Store and Google Play Store. Diagnostic, II.

  6. A Novel Grey Wave Method for Predicting Total Chinese Trade Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kedong Yin

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The total trade volume of a country is an important way of appraising its international trade situation. A prediction based on trade volume will help enterprises arrange production efficiently and promote the sustainability of the international trade. Because the total Chinese trade volume fluctuates over time, this paper proposes a Grey wave forecasting model with a Hodrick–Prescott filter (HP filter to forecast it. This novel model first parses time series into long-term trend and short-term cycle. Second, the model uses a general GM (1,1 to predict the trend term and the Grey wave forecasting model to predict the cycle term. Empirical analysis shows that the improved Grey wave prediction method provides a much more accurate forecast than the basic Grey wave prediction method, achieving better prediction results than autoregressive moving average model (ARMA.

  7. Usefulness of Coronary Atheroma Burden to Predict Cardiovascular Events in Patients Presenting With Acute Coronary Syndromes (from the PROSPECT Study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Peiren; Mintz, Gary S; McPherson, John A; De Bruyne, Bernard; Farhat, Naim Z; Marso, Steven P; Serruys, Patrick W; Stone, Gregg W; Maehara, Akiko

    2015-12-01

    We investigated the relation between overall atheroma burden and clinical events in the Providing Regional Observations to Study Predictors of Events in the Coronary Tree (PROSPECT) study. In PROSPECT, 660 patients (3,229 nonculprit lesions with a plaque burden ≥ 40% and complete intravascular ultrasound data) were divided into tertiles according to baseline percent atheroma volume (PAV: total plaque/vessel volume). Patients were followed for 3.4 years (median); major adverse cardiac events (MACE: death from cardiac causes, cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, or rehospitalization because of unstable or progressive angina) were adjudicated to either culprit or nonculprit lesions. Compared with patients in low or intermediate PAV tertiles, patients in the high PAV tertile had the greatest prevalence of plaque rupture and radiofrequency thin-cap fibroatheroma (VH-TCFA) and the highest percentage of necrotic core volume; they were also more likely to have high-risk lesion characteristics: ≥ 1 lesion with minimal luminal area ≤ 4 mm(2), plaque burden >70%, and/or VH-TCFA. Three-year cumulative nonculprit lesion-related MACE was greater in the intermediate and high tertiles than in the low tertile (6.3% vs 14.7% vs 15.1%, low vs intermediate vs high tertiles, p = 0.009). On Cox multivariable analysis, insulin-dependent diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 3.98, p = 0.002), PAV (HR 1.06, p = 0.03), and the presence of ≥1 VH-TCFA (HR 1.80, p = 0.02) were independent predictors of nonculprit MACE. In conclusion, increasing baseline overall atheroma burden was associated with more advanced, complex, and vulnerable intravascular ultrasound lesion morphology and independently predicted nonculprit lesion-related MACE in patients with acute coronary syndromes after successful culprit lesion intervention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Variables that predict academic procrastination behavior in prospective primary school teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asuman Seda SARACALOĞLU

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to examine the variables predicting academic procrastination behavior of prospective primary school teachers and is conducted using the correlational survey model. The study group is composed of 294 undergraduate students studying primary school teaching programs in faculties of education at Adnan Menderes, Pamukkale, and Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Universities in Turkey. The data collection instruments used were the Procrastination Assessment Scale Students (PASS, Academic Self-Efficacy Scale (ASES, and Academic Motivation Scale (AMS. While analyzing the gathered data, descriptive analysis techniques were utilized. Moreover, while analyzing the data, power of variables namely reasons of academic procrastination, academic motivation, and academic efficacy to predict prospective primary school teachers’ academic procrastination tendencies were tested. For that purpose, stepwise regression analysis was employed. It was found that nearly half of the prospective primary school teachers displayed no academic procrastination behavior. Participants’ reasons for procrastination were fear of failure, laziness, taking risks, and rebellion against control. An average level significant correlation was found between participants’ academic procrastination and other variables. As a result, it was identified that prospective primary school teachers had less academic procrastination than reported in literature and laziness, fear of failure, academic motivation predicted academic procrastination.

  9. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

  10. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilaria Bordino

    Full Text Available We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

  11. Predicted stand volume for Eucalyptus plantations by spatial analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latifah, Siti; Teodoro, RV; Myrna, GC; Nathaniel, CB; Leonardo, M. F.

    2018-03-01

    The main objective of the present study was to assess nonlinear models generated by integrating the stand volume growth rate to estimate the growth and yield of Eucalyptus. The primary data was done for point of interest (POI) of permanent sample plots (PSPs) and inventory sample plots, in Aek Nauli sector, Simalungun regency,North Sumatera Province,Indonesia. from December 2008- March 2009. Today,the demand for forestry information has continued to grow over recent years. Because many forest managers and decision makers face complex decisions, reliable information has become the necessity. In the assessment of natural resources including plantation forests have been widely used geospatial technology.The yield of Eucalyptus plantations represented by merchantable volume as dependent variable while factors affecting yield namely stands variables and the geographic variables as independent variables. The majority of the areas in the study site has stand volume class 0 - 50 m3/ha with 16.59 ha or 65.85 % of the total study site.

  12. Prospective assessment of dosimetric/physiologic-based models for predicting radiation pneumonitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocak, Zafer; Borst, Gerben R.; Zeng Jing; Zhou Sumin; Hollis, Donna R.; Zhang Junan; Evans, Elizabeth S.; Folz, Rodney J.; Wong, Terrence; Kahn, Daniel; Belderbos, Jose S.A.; Lebesque, Joos V.; Marks, Lawrence B.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: Clinical and 3D dosimetric parameters are associated with symptomatic radiation pneumonitis rates in retrospective studies. Such parameters include: mean lung dose (MLD), radiation (RT) dose to perfused lung (via SPECT), and pre-RT lung function. Based on prior publications, we defined pre-RT criteria hypothesized to be predictive for later development of pneumonitis. We herein prospectively test the predictive abilities of these dosimetric/functional parameters on 2 cohorts of patients from Duke and Netherlands Cancer Institute (NKI). Methods and Materials: For the Duke cohort, 55 eligible patients treated between 1999 and 2005 on a prospective IRB-approved study to monitor RT-induced lung injury were analyzed. A similar group of patients treated at the NKI between 1996 and 2002 were identified. Patients believed to be at high and low risk for pneumonitis were defined based on: (1) MLD; (2) OpRP (sum of predicted perfusion reduction based on regional dose-response curve); and (3) pre-RT DLCO. All doses reflected tissue density heterogeneity. The rates of grade ≥2 pneumonitis in the 'presumed' high and low risk groups were compared using Fisher's exact test. Results: In the Duke group, pneumonitis rates in patients prospectively deemed to be at 'high' vs. 'low' risk are 7 of 20 and 9 of 35, respectively; p = 0.33 one-tailed Fisher's. Similarly, comparable rates for the NKI group are 4 of 21 and 6 of 44, respectively, p = 0.41 one-tailed Fisher's. Conclusion: The prospective model appears unable to accurately segregate patients into high vs. low risk groups. However, considered retrospectively, these data are consistent with prior studies suggesting that dosimetric (e.g., MLD) and functional (e.g., PFTs or SPECT) parameters are predictive for RT-induced pneumonitis. Additional work is needed to better identify, and prospectively assess, predictors of RT-induced lung injury

  13. Dose–Volume Modeling of Brachial Plexus-Associated Neuropathy After Radiation Therapy for Head-and-Neck Cancer: Findings From a Prospective Screening Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Allen M.; Wang, Pin-Chieh; Daly, Megan E.; Cui, Jing; Hall, William H.; Vijayakumar, Srinivasan; Phillips, Theodore L.; Farwell, D. Gregory; Purdy, James A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Data from a prospective screening protocol administered for patients previously irradiated for head-and-neck cancer was analyzed to identify dosimetric predictors of brachial plexus-associated neuropathy. Methods and Materials: Three hundred fifty-two patients who had previously completed radiation therapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck were prospectively screened from August 2007 to April 2013 using a standardized self-administered instrument for symptoms of neuropathy thought to be related to brachial plexus injury. All patients were disease-free at the time of screening. The median time from radiation therapy was 40 months (range, 6-111 months). A total of 177 patients (50%) underwent neck dissection. Two hundred twenty-one patients (63%) received concurrent chemotherapy. Results: Fifty-one patients (14%) reported brachial plexus-related neuropathic symptoms with the most common being ipsilateral pain (50%), numbness/tingling (40%), and motor weakness and/or muscle atrophy (25%). The 3- and 5-year estimates of freedom from brachial plexus-associated neuropathy were 86% and 81%, respectively. Clinical/pathological N3 disease (P<.001) and maximum radiation dose to the ipsilateral brachial plexus (P=.01) were significantly associated with neuropathic symptoms. Cox regression analysis revealed significant dose–volume effects for brachial plexus-associated neuropathy. The volume of the ipsilateral brachial plexus receiving >70 Gy (V70) predicted for symptoms, with the incidence increasing with V70 >10% (P<.001). A correlation was also observed for the volume receiving >74 Gy (V74) among patients treated without neck dissection, with a cutoff of 4% predictive of symptoms (P=.038). Conclusions: Dose–volume guidelines were developed for radiation planning that may limit brachial plexus-related neuropathies

  14. Dose–Volume Modeling of Brachial Plexus-Associated Neuropathy After Radiation Therapy for Head-and-Neck Cancer: Findings From a Prospective Screening Protocol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Allen M., E-mail: amchen@mednet.ucla.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Los Angeles, David Geffen School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California (United States); Wang, Pin-Chieh [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Los Angeles, David Geffen School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California (United States); Daly, Megan E.; Cui, Jing; Hall, William H. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Davis, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Sacramento, California (United States); Vijayakumar, Srinivasan [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Mississippi School of Medicine, Jackson, Mississippi (United States); Phillips, Theodore L. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Davis, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Sacramento, California (United States); Farwell, D. Gregory [Department of Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery, University of California, Davis, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Sacramento, California (United States); Purdy, James A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Davis, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Sacramento, California (United States)

    2014-03-15

    Purpose: Data from a prospective screening protocol administered for patients previously irradiated for head-and-neck cancer was analyzed to identify dosimetric predictors of brachial plexus-associated neuropathy. Methods and Materials: Three hundred fifty-two patients who had previously completed radiation therapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck were prospectively screened from August 2007 to April 2013 using a standardized self-administered instrument for symptoms of neuropathy thought to be related to brachial plexus injury. All patients were disease-free at the time of screening. The median time from radiation therapy was 40 months (range, 6-111 months). A total of 177 patients (50%) underwent neck dissection. Two hundred twenty-one patients (63%) received concurrent chemotherapy. Results: Fifty-one patients (14%) reported brachial plexus-related neuropathic symptoms with the most common being ipsilateral pain (50%), numbness/tingling (40%), and motor weakness and/or muscle atrophy (25%). The 3- and 5-year estimates of freedom from brachial plexus-associated neuropathy were 86% and 81%, respectively. Clinical/pathological N3 disease (P<.001) and maximum radiation dose to the ipsilateral brachial plexus (P=.01) were significantly associated with neuropathic symptoms. Cox regression analysis revealed significant dose–volume effects for brachial plexus-associated neuropathy. The volume of the ipsilateral brachial plexus receiving >70 Gy (V70) predicted for symptoms, with the incidence increasing with V70 >10% (P<.001). A correlation was also observed for the volume receiving >74 Gy (V74) among patients treated without neck dissection, with a cutoff of 4% predictive of symptoms (P=.038). Conclusions: Dose–volume guidelines were developed for radiation planning that may limit brachial plexus-related neuropathies.

  15. Systematic review of dose-volume parameters in the prediction of esophagitis in thoracic radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, Jim; Rodrigues, George; Yaremko, Brian; Lock, Michael; D'Souza, David

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: With dose escalation and increasing use of concurrent chemoradiotherapy, radiation esophagitis (RE) remains a common treatment-limiting acute side effect in the treatment of thoracic malignancies. The advent of 3DCT planning has enabled investigators to study esophageal dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters as predictors of RE. The purpose of this study was to assess published dosimetric parameters and toxicity data systematically in order to define reproducible predictors of RE, both for potential clinical use, and to provide recommendations for future research in the field. Materials and methods: We performed a systematic literature review of published studies addressing RE in the treatment of lung cancer and thymoma. Our search strategy included a variety of electronic medical databases, textbooks and bibliographies. Both prospective and retrospective clinical studies were included. Information relating to the relationship among measured dosimetric parameters, patient demographics, tumor characteristics, chemotherapy and RE was extracted and analyzed. Results: Eighteen published studies were suitable for analysis. Eleven of these assessed acute RE, while the remainder assessed both acute and chronic RE together. Heterogeneity of esophageal contouring practices, individual differences in information reporting and variability of RE outcome definitions were assessed. Well-described clinical and logistic modeling directly related V 35Gy , V 60Gy and SA 55Gy to clinically significant RE. Conclusions: Several reproducible dosimetric parameters exist in the literature, and these may be potentially relevant in the prediction of RE in the radiotherapy of thoracic malignancies. Further clarification of the predictive relationship between such standardized dosimetric parameters and observed RE outcomes is essential to develop efficient radiation treatment planning in locally advanced NSCLC in the modern concurrent chemotherapy and image-guided IMRT era.

  16. Early changes of parotid density and volume predict modifications at the end of therapy and intensity of acute xerostomia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belli, Maria Luisa; Broggi, Sara; Scalco, Elisa; Rizzo, Giovanna; Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Fiorino, Claudio; Cattaneo, Giovanni Mauro; Dinapoli, Nicola; Valentini, Vincenzo; Ricchetti, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    To quantitatively assess the predictive power of early variations of parotid gland volume and density on final changes at the end of therapy and, possibly, on acute xerostomia during IMRT for head-neck cancer. Data of 92 parotids (46 patients) were available. Kinetics of the changes during treatment were described by the daily rate of density (rΔρ) and volume (rΔvol) variation based on weekly diagnostic kVCT images. Correlation between early and final changes was investigated as well as the correlation with prospective toxicity data (CTCAEv3.0) collected weekly during treatment for 24/46 patients. A higher rΔρ was observed during the first compared to last week of treatment (-0,50 vs -0,05HU, p-value = 0.0001). Based on early variations, a good estimation of the final changes may be obtained (Δρ: AUC = 0.82, p = 0.0001; Δvol: AUC = 0.77, p = 0.0001). Both early rΔρ and rΔvol predict a higher ''mean'' acute xerostomia score (≥ median value, 1.57; p-value = 0.01). Median early density rate changes for patients with mean xerostomia score ≥ / 3 /day for rΔρ and rΔvol respectively. Further studies are necessary to definitively assess the potential of early density/volume changes in identifying more sensitive patients at higher risk of experiencing xerostomia. (orig.) [de

  17. Measurement of lung volume by lung perfusion scanning using SPECT and prediction of postoperative respiratory function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andou, Akio; Shimizu, Nobuyosi; Maruyama, Shuichiro

    1992-01-01

    Measurement of lung volume by lung perfusion scanning using single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and its usefulness for the prediction of respiratory function after lung resection were investigated. The lung volumes calculated in 5 patients by SPECT (threshold level 20%) using 99m Tc-macroaggregated albumin (MAA), related very closely to the actually measured lung volumes. This results prompted us to calculate the total lung volume and the volume of the lobe to be resected in 18 patients with lung cancer by SPECT. Based on the data obtained, postoperative respiratory function was predicted. The predicted values of forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume (FEV 1.0 ), and maximum vital volume (MVV) showed closer correlations with the actually measured postoperative values (FVC, FEV 1.0 , MVV : r=0.944, r=0.917, r=0.795 respectively), than the values predicted by the ordinary lung perfusion scanning. This method facilitates more detailed evaluation of local lung function on a lobe-by-lobe basis, and can be applied clinically to predict postoperative respiratory function. (author)

  18. Prostate cancer volume adds significantly to prostate-specific antigen in the prediction of early biochemical failure after external beam radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Amico, Anthony V.; Propert, Kathleen J.

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: A new clinical pretreatment quantity that closely approximates the true prostate cancer volume is defined. Methods and Materials: The cancer-specific prostate-specific antigen (PSA), PSA density, prostate cancer volume (V Ca ), and the volume fraction of the gland involved with carcinoma (V Ca fx) were calculated for 227 prostate cancer patients managed definitively with external beam radiation therapy. 1. PSA density PSA/ultrasound prostate gland volume 2. Cancer-specific PSA = PSA - [PSA from benign epithelial tissue] 3. V Ca = Cancer-specific PSA/[PSA in serum per cm 3 of cancer] 4. V Ca fx = V Ca /ultrasound prostate gland volume A Cox multiple regression analysis was used to test whether any of these-clinical pretreatment parameters added significantly to PSA in predicting early postradiation PSA failure. Results: The prostate cancer volume (p = 0.039) and the volume fraction of the gland involved by carcinoma (p = 0.035) significantly added to the PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. Conversely, the PSA density and the cancer-specific PSA did not add significantly (p > 0.05) to PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. The 20-month actuarial PSA failure-free rates for patients with calculated tumor volumes of ≤0.5 cm 3 , 0.5-4.0 cm 3 , and >4.0 cm 3 were 92, 80, and 47%, respectively (p = 0.00004). Conclusion: The volume of prostate cancer (V Ca ) and the resulting volume fraction of cancer both added significantly to PSA in their ability to predict for early postradiation PSA failure. These new parameters may be used to select patients in prospective randomized trials that examine the efficacy of combining radiation and androgen ablative therapy in patients with clinically localized disease, who are at high risk for early postradiation PSA failure

  19. Mean platelet volume (MPV) predicts middle distance running performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippi, Giuseppe; Salvagno, Gian Luca; Danese, Elisa; Skafidas, Spyros; Tarperi, Cantor; Guidi, Gian Cesare; Schena, Federico

    2014-01-01

    Running economy and performance in middle distance running depend on several physiological factors, which include anthropometric variables, functional characteristics, training volume and intensity. Since little information is available about hematological predictors of middle distance running time, we investigated whether some hematological parameters may be associated with middle distance running performance in a large sample of recreational runners. The study population consisted in 43 amateur runners (15 females, 28 males; median age 47 years), who successfully concluded a 21.1 km half-marathon at 75-85% of their maximal aerobic power (VO2max). Whole blood was collected 10 min before the run started and immediately thereafter, and hematological testing was completed within 2 hours after sample collection. The values of lymphocytes and eosinophils exhibited a significant decrease compared to pre-run values, whereas those of mean corpuscular volume (MCV), platelets, mean platelet volume (MPV), white blood cells (WBCs), neutrophils and monocytes were significantly increased after the run. In univariate analysis, significant associations with running time were found for pre-run values of hematocrit, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), red blood cell distribution width (RDW), MPV, reticulocyte hemoglobin concentration (RetCHR), and post-run values of MCH, RDW, MPV, monocytes and RetCHR. In multivariate analysis, in which running time was entered as dependent variable whereas age, sex, blood lactate, body mass index, VO2max, mean training regimen and the hematological parameters significantly associated with running performance in univariate analysis were entered as independent variables, only MPV values before and after the trial remained significantly associated with running time. After adjustment for platelet count, the MPV value before the run (p = 0.042), but not thereafter (p = 0.247), remained significantly associated with running

  20. Mean platelet volume (MPV predicts middle distance running performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Lippi

    Full Text Available Running economy and performance in middle distance running depend on several physiological factors, which include anthropometric variables, functional characteristics, training volume and intensity. Since little information is available about hematological predictors of middle distance running time, we investigated whether some hematological parameters may be associated with middle distance running performance in a large sample of recreational runners.The study population consisted in 43 amateur runners (15 females, 28 males; median age 47 years, who successfully concluded a 21.1 km half-marathon at 75-85% of their maximal aerobic power (VO2max. Whole blood was collected 10 min before the run started and immediately thereafter, and hematological testing was completed within 2 hours after sample collection.The values of lymphocytes and eosinophils exhibited a significant decrease compared to pre-run values, whereas those of mean corpuscular volume (MCV, platelets, mean platelet volume (MPV, white blood cells (WBCs, neutrophils and monocytes were significantly increased after the run. In univariate analysis, significant associations with running time were found for pre-run values of hematocrit, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH, red blood cell distribution width (RDW, MPV, reticulocyte hemoglobin concentration (RetCHR, and post-run values of MCH, RDW, MPV, monocytes and RetCHR. In multivariate analysis, in which running time was entered as dependent variable whereas age, sex, blood lactate, body mass index, VO2max, mean training regimen and the hematological parameters significantly associated with running performance in univariate analysis were entered as independent variables, only MPV values before and after the trial remained significantly associated with running time. After adjustment for platelet count, the MPV value before the run (p = 0.042, but not thereafter (p = 0.247, remained significantly associated with running

  1. In-treatment stroke volume predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lønnebakken, Mai T; Gerdts, Eva; Boman, Kurt

    2011-01-01

    , the prespecified primary study endpoint, was assessed in Cox regression analysis using data from baseline and annual follow-up visits in 855 patients during 4.8 years of randomized losartan-based or atenolol-based treatment in the Losartan Intervention For Endpoint reduction in hypertension (LIFE) echocardiography...... with higher risk of cardiovascular events {hazard ratio 1.69 per 1 SD (6 ml/m2.04) lower stroke volume [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35–2.11], P secondary model also independent of stress-corrected midwall shortening......, hence, adds information on cardiovascular risk in treated hypertensive patients beyond assessment of left ventricular structure alone....

  2. Ovarian volume and antral follicle count for the prediction of low and hyper responders with in vitro fertilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elting Mariet E

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The current study was designed to compare antral follicle count (AFC and basal ovarian volume (BOV, the exogenous FSH ovarian reserve test (EFORT and the clomiphene citrate challenge test (CCCT, with respect to their ability to predict poor and hyper responders. Methods One hundred and ten regularly menstruating patients, aged 18–39 years, participated in this prospective study, randomized, by a computer designed 4-blocks system study into two groups. Fifty six patients underwent a CCCT, and 54 patients underwent an EFORT. All patients underwent a transvaginal sonography to measure the basal ovarian volume and count of basal antral follicle. In all patients, the test was followed by a standard IVF treatment. The result of ovarian hyperstimulation during IVF treatment, expressed by the total number of follicles, was used as gold standard. Results The best prediction of ovarian reserve (Y was seen in a multiple regression prediction model that included, AFC, Inhibin B-increment in the EFORT and BOV simultaneously (Y = -3.161 + 0.805 × AFC (0.258-1.352 + 0.034 × Inh. B-incr. (0.007-0.601 + 0.511 BOV (0.480-0.974 (r = 0.848, p Conclusion In conclusion AFC performs well as a test for ovarian response being superior or at least similar to complex expensive and time consuming endocrine tests. It is therefore likely to be the test for general practise.

  3. Quantitative prediction of respiratory tidal volume based on the external torso volume change: a potential volumetric surrogate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Guang; Arora, Naveen C; Xie Huchen; Ning, Holly; Citrin, Deborah; Kaushal, Aradhana; Zach, Leor; Camphausen, Kevin; Miller, Robert W; Lu Wei; Low, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    An external respiratory surrogate that not only highly correlates with but also quantitatively predicts internal tidal volume should be useful in guiding four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT), as well as 4D radiation therapy (4DRT). A volumetric surrogate should have advantages over external fiducial point(s) for monitoring respiration-induced motion of the torso, which deforms in synchronization with a patient-specific breathing pattern. This study establishes a linear relationship between the external torso volume change (TVC) and lung air volume change (AVC) by validating a proposed volume conservation hypothesis (TVC = AVC) throughout the respiratory cycle using 4DCT and spirometry. Fourteen patients' torso 4DCT images and corresponding spirometric tidal volumes were acquired to examine this hypothesis. The 4DCT images were acquired using dual surrogates in cine mode and amplitude-based binning in 12 respiratory stages, minimizing residual motion artifacts. Torso and lung volumes were calculated using threshold-based segmentation algorithms and volume changes were calculated relative to the full-exhalation stage. The TVC and AVC, as functions of respiratory stages, were compared, showing a high correlation (r = 0.992 ± 0.005, p 2 = 0.980) without phase shift. The AVC was also compared to the spirometric tidal volumes, showing a similar linearity (slope = 1.030 ± 0.092, R 2 = 0.947). In contrast, the thoracic and abdominal heights measured from 4DCT showed relatively low correlation (0.28 ± 0.44 and 0.82 ± 0.30, respectively) and location-dependent phase shifts. This novel approach establishes the foundation for developing an external volumetric respiratory surrogate.

  4. Quantitative prediction of respiratory tidal volume based on the external torso volume change: a potential volumetric surrogate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Guang; Arora, Naveen C; Xie Huchen; Ning, Holly; Citrin, Deborah; Kaushal, Aradhana; Zach, Leor; Camphausen, Kevin; Miller, Robert W [Radiation Oncology Branch, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States); Lu Wei; Low, Daniel [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO 63110 (United States)], E-mail: ligeorge@mail.nih.gov

    2009-04-07

    An external respiratory surrogate that not only highly correlates with but also quantitatively predicts internal tidal volume should be useful in guiding four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT), as well as 4D radiation therapy (4DRT). A volumetric surrogate should have advantages over external fiducial point(s) for monitoring respiration-induced motion of the torso, which deforms in synchronization with a patient-specific breathing pattern. This study establishes a linear relationship between the external torso volume change (TVC) and lung air volume change (AVC) by validating a proposed volume conservation hypothesis (TVC = AVC) throughout the respiratory cycle using 4DCT and spirometry. Fourteen patients' torso 4DCT images and corresponding spirometric tidal volumes were acquired to examine this hypothesis. The 4DCT images were acquired using dual surrogates in cine mode and amplitude-based binning in 12 respiratory stages, minimizing residual motion artifacts. Torso and lung volumes were calculated using threshold-based segmentation algorithms and volume changes were calculated relative to the full-exhalation stage. The TVC and AVC, as functions of respiratory stages, were compared, showing a high correlation (r = 0.992 {+-} 0.005, p < 0.0001) as well as a linear relationship (slope = 1.027 {+-} 0.061, R{sup 2} = 0.980) without phase shift. The AVC was also compared to the spirometric tidal volumes, showing a similar linearity (slope = 1.030 {+-} 0.092, R{sup 2} = 0.947). In contrast, the thoracic and abdominal heights measured from 4DCT showed relatively low correlation (0.28 {+-} 0.44 and 0.82 {+-} 0.30, respectively) and location-dependent phase shifts. This novel approach establishes the foundation for developing an external volumetric respiratory surrogate.

  5. Developing a stochastic traffic volume prediction model for public-private partnership projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phong, Nguyen Thanh; Likhitruangsilp, Veerasak; Onishi, Masamitsu

    2017-11-01

    Transportation projects require an enormous amount of capital investment resulting from their tremendous size, complexity, and risk. Due to the limitation of public finances, the private sector is invited to participate in transportation project development. The private sector can entirely or partially invest in transportation projects in the form of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme, which has been an attractive option for several developing countries, including Vietnam. There are many factors affecting the success of PPP projects. The accurate prediction of traffic volume is considered one of the key success factors of PPP transportation projects. However, only few research works investigated how to predict traffic volume over a long period of time. Moreover, conventional traffic volume forecasting methods are usually based on deterministic models which predict a single value of traffic volume but do not consider risk and uncertainty. This knowledge gap makes it difficult for concessionaires to estimate PPP transportation project revenues accurately. The objective of this paper is to develop a probabilistic traffic volume prediction model. First, traffic volumes were estimated following the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process. Monte Carlo technique is then applied to simulate different scenarios. The results show that this stochastic approach can systematically analyze variations in the traffic volume and yield more reliable estimates for PPP projects.

  6. Prognostic and predictive value of liver volume on colorectal cancer patients with unresectable liver metastases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jun Su; Park, Hee Chul; Choi, Doo Ho; Park, Won; Yu, Jeong Il; Park, Young Suk; Kang, Won Ki; Park, Joon Oh

    2014-01-01

    To determine the prognostic and predictive value of liver volume in colorectal cancer patients with unresectable liver metastases. Sixteen patients received whole liver radiotherapy (WLRT) between January 1997 and June 2013. A total dose of 21 Gy was delivered in 7 fractions. The median survival time after WLRT was 9 weeks. In univariate analysis, performance status, serum albumin and total bilirubin level, liver volume and extrahepatic metastases were associated with survival. The mean liver volume was significantly different between subgroups with and without pain relief (3,097 and 4,739 mL, respectively; p = 0.002). A larger liver volume is a poor prognostic factor for survival and also a negative predictive factor for response to WLRT. If patients who are referred for WLRT have large liver volume, they should be informed of the poor prognosis and should be closely observed during and after WLRT.

  7. Prognostic and predictive value of liver volume on colorectal cancer patients with unresectable liver metastases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jun Su; Park, Hee Chul; Choi, Doo Ho; Park, Won; Yu, Jeong Il; Park, Young Suk; Kang, Won Ki; Park, Joon Oh [Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-06-15

    To determine the prognostic and predictive value of liver volume in colorectal cancer patients with unresectable liver metastases. Sixteen patients received whole liver radiotherapy (WLRT) between January 1997 and June 2013. A total dose of 21 Gy was delivered in 7 fractions. The median survival time after WLRT was 9 weeks. In univariate analysis, performance status, serum albumin and total bilirubin level, liver volume and extrahepatic metastases were associated with survival. The mean liver volume was significantly different between subgroups with and without pain relief (3,097 and 4,739 mL, respectively; p = 0.002). A larger liver volume is a poor prognostic factor for survival and also a negative predictive factor for response to WLRT. If patients who are referred for WLRT have large liver volume, they should be informed of the poor prognosis and should be closely observed during and after WLRT.

  8. Method and timing of tumor volume measurement for outcome prediction in cervical cancer using magnetic resonance imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayr, Nina A.; Taoka, Toshiaki; Yuh, William T.C.; Denning, Leah M.; Zhen, Weining K.; Paulino, Arnold C.; Gaston, Robert C.; Sorosky, Joel I.; Meeks, Sanford L.; Walker, Joan L.; Mannel, Robert S.; Buatti, John M.

    2002-01-01

    Purpose: Recently, imaging-based tumor volume before, during, and after radiation therapy (RT) has been shown to predict tumor response in cervical cancer. However, the effectiveness of different methods and timing of imaging-based tumor size assessment have not been investigated. The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive value for treatment outcome derived from simple diameter-based ellipsoid tumor volume measurement using orthogonal diameters (with ellipsoid computation) with that derived from more complex contour tracing/region-of-interest (ROI) analysis 3D tumor volumetry. Methods and Materials: Serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations were prospectively performed in 60 patients with advanced cervical cancer (Stages IB 2 -IVB/recurrent) at the start of RT, during early RT (20-25 Gy), mid-RT (45-50 Gy), and at follow-up (1-2 months after RT completion). ROI-based volumetry was derived by tracing the entire tumor region in each MR slice on the computer work station. For the diameter-based surrogate ''ellipsoid volume,'' the three orthogonal diameters (d 1 , d 2 , d 3 ) were measured on film hard copies to calculate volume as an ellipsoid (d 1 x d 2 x d 3 x π/6). Serial tumor volumes and regression rates determined by each method were correlated with local control, disease-free and overall survival, and the results were compared between the two measuring methods. Median post-therapy follow-up was 4.9 years (range, 2.0-8.2 years). Results: The best method and time point of tumor size measurement for the prediction of outcome was the tumor regression rate in the mid-therapy MRI examination (at 45-50 Gy) using 3D ROI volumetry. For the pre-RT measurement both the diameter-based method and ROI volumetry provided similar predictive accuracy, particularly for patients with small ( 3 ) and large (≥100 cm 3 ) pre-RT tumor size. However, the pre-RT tumor size measured by either method had much less predictive value for the intermediate-size (40

  9. Body Dissatisfaction Prospectively Predicts Depressive Mood and Low Self-Esteem in Adolescent Girls and Boys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Susan J.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J.; Eisenberg, Marla E.

    2006-01-01

    This research examined whether body dissatisfaction prospectively predicted depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys 5 years later. Participants were early-adolescent girls (n = 440, Time 1 M age = 12.7 years) and boys (n = 366, Time 1 M age = 12.8 years) and midadolescent girls (n = 946, Time 1 M age = 15.8 years) and boys…

  10. Hopefulness predicts resilience after hereditary colorectal cancer genetic testing: a prospective outcome trajectories study

    OpenAIRE

    Chu Annie TW; Bonanno George A; Ho Judy WC; Ho Samuel MY; Chan Emily MS

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background - Genetic testing for hereditary colorectal cancer (HCRC) had significant psychological consequences for test recipients. This prospective longitudinal study investigated the factors that predict psychological resilience in adults undergoing genetic testing for HCRC. Methods - A longitudinal study was carried out from April 2003 to August 2006 on Hong Kong Chinese HCRC family members who were recruited and offered genetic testing by the Hereditary Gastrointestinal Cancer R...

  11. Can the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) predict intrapartum fetal compromise? : a prospective observational study

    OpenAIRE

    Page, Ann-Sophie; Page, Geert; Dehaene, Isabelle; Roets, Ellen; Roelens, Kristien

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the potential clinical use of serial fetal CPR measurements during the last month of pregnancy for the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome in unselected low-risk pregnancies. Methods: A multicenter prospective observational cohort study in 315 consecutively recruited low-risk pregnancies. All eligible pregnancies underwent serial sonographic evaluation of fetal weight and Doppler indices at two week intervals, from 36 weeks gestation until delivery. Data were ...

  12. Controlling factors of uranium mineralization and prospect prediction in Qimantage area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao Chunling; Zhu Pengfei; Cai Yuqi; Zhang Wenming; Zhao Yong'an; Song Jiye; Zhang Xiaojin

    2011-01-01

    Based on the analysis of regional geology in Qimantage area, the condition for uranium mineralization is summarized in regional geology setting, volcanic, granite and faults. This study shows that this area has favorable prospect for uranium mineralization. The metallogenic model is built up according to the controlling factors over uranium mineralization. Under this model, six potential areas are predicted in MRAS software with mineralization factors of synthetically geological information method. (authors)

  13. Investigation of a breathing surrogate prediction algorithm for prospective pulmonary gating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, Benjamin M.; Low, Daniel A.; Zhao Tianyu; Wuenschel, Sara; Lu, Wei; Lamb, James M.; Mutic, Sasa; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: A major challenge of four dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) in treatment planning and delivery has been the lack of respiration amplitude and phase reproducibility during image acquisition. The implementation of a prospective gating algorithm would ensure that images would be acquired only during user-specified breathing phases. This study describes the development and testing of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for human respiratory phase prediction under quiet respiration conditions. Methods: A total of 47 4DCT patient datasets and synchronized respiration records was utilized in this study. Three datasets were used in model development and were removed from further evaluation of the ARMA model. The remaining 44 patient datasets were evaluated with the ARMA model for prediction time steps from 50 to 1000 ms in increments of 50 and 100 ms. Thirty-five of these datasets were further used to provide a comparison between the proposed ARMA model and a commercial algorithm with a prediction time step of 240 ms. Results: The optimal number of parameters for the ARMA model was based on three datasets reserved for model development. Prediction error was found to increase as the prediction time step increased. The minimum prediction time step required for prospective gating was selected to be half of the gantry rotation period. The maximum prediction time step with a conservative 95% confidence criterion was found to be 0.3 s. The ARMA model predicted peak inhalation and peak exhalation phases significantly better than the commercial algorithm. Furthermore, the commercial algorithm had numerous instances of missed breath cycles and falsely predicted breath cycles, while the proposed model did not have these errors. Conclusions: An ARMA model has been successfully applied to predict human respiratory phase occurrence. For a typical CT scanner gantry rotation period of 0.4 s (0.2 s prediction time step), the absolute error was relatively small, 0

  14. Performance predictions affect attentional processes of event-based prospective memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummel, Jan; Kuhlmann, Beatrice G; Touron, Dayna R

    2013-09-01

    To investigate whether making performance predictions affects prospective memory (PM) processing, we asked one group of participants to predict their performance in a PM task embedded in an ongoing task and compared their performance with a control group that made no predictions. A third group gave not only PM predictions but also ongoing-task predictions. Exclusive PM predictions resulted in slower ongoing-task responding both in a nonfocal (Experiment 1) and in a focal (Experiment 2) PM task. Only in the nonfocal task was the additional slowing accompanied by improved PM performance. Even in the nonfocal task, however, was the correlation between ongoing-task speed and PM performance reduced after predictions, suggesting that the slowing was not completely functional for PM. Prediction-induced changes could be avoided by asking participants to additionally predict their performance in the ongoing task. In sum, the present findings substantiate a role of metamemory for attention-allocation strategies of PM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Factors predictive for incidence and remission of internet addiction in young adolescents: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Chih-Hung; Yen, Ju-Yu; Yen, Cheng-Fang; Lin, Huang-Chi; Yang, Ming-Jen

    2007-08-01

    The aim of the study is to determine the incidence and remission rates for Internet addiction and the associated predictive factors in young adolescents over a 1-year follow-up. This was a prospective, population-based investigation. Five hundred seventeen students (267 male and 250 female) were recruited from three junior high schools in southern Taiwan. The factors examined included gender, personality, mental health, self-esteem, family function, life satisfaction, and Internet activities. The result revealed that the 1-year incidence and remission rates for Internet addiction were 7.5% and 49.5% respectively. High exploratory excitability, low reward dependence, low self-esteem, low family function, and online game playing predicted the emergency of the Internet addiction. Further, low hostility and low interpersonal sensitivity predicted remission of Internet addiction. The factors predictive incidence and remission of Internet addiction identified in this study could be provided for prevention and promoting remission of Internet addiction in adolescents.

  16. Optimisation of the link volume for weakest link failure prediction in NBG-18 nuclear graphite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hindley, Michael P.; Groenwold, Albert A.; Blaine, Deborah C.; Becker, Thorsten H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the process for approximating the optimal size of a link volume required for weakest link failure calculation in nuclear graphite, with NBG-18 used as an example. As part of the failure methodology, the link volume is defined in terms of two grouping criteria. The first criterion is a factor of the maximum grain size and the second criterion is a function of an equivalent stress limit. A methodology for approximating these grouping criteria is presented. The failure methodology employs finite element analysis (FEA) in order to predict the failure load, at 50% probability of failure. The average experimental failure load, as determined for 26 test geometries, is used to evaluate the accuracy of the weakest link failure calculations. The influence of the two grouping criteria on the failure load prediction is evaluated by defining an error in prediction across all test cases. Mathematical optimisation is used to find the minimum error across a range of test case failure predictions. This minimum error is shown to deliver the most accurate failure prediction across a whole range of components, although some test cases in the range predict conservative failure load. The mathematical optimisation objective function is penalised to account for non-conservative prediction of the failure load for any test case. The optimisation is repeated and a link volume found for conservative failure prediction. The failure prediction for each test case is evaluated, in detail, for the proposed link volumes. Based on the analysis, link design volumes for NBG-18 are recommended for either accurate or conservative failure prediction

  17. Association Between Pain at Sites Outside the Knee and Knee Cartilage Volume Loss in Elderly People Without Knee Osteoarthritis: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Feng; Laslett, Laura; Tian, Jing; Cicuttini, Flavia; Winzenberg, Tania; Ding, Changhai; Jones, Graeme

    2017-05-01

    Pain is common in the elderly. Knee pain may predict knee cartilage loss, but whether generalized pain is associated with knee cartilage loss is unclear. This study, therefore, aimed to determine whether pain at multiple sites predicts knee cartilage volume loss among community-dwelling older adults, and, if so, to explore potential mechanisms. Data from the prospective Tasmanian Older Adult Cohort study was utilized (n = 394, mean age 63 years, range 52-79 years). Experience of pain at multiple sites was assessed using a questionnaire at baseline. T1-weighted fat-saturated magnetic resonance imaging of the right knee was performed to assess the cartilage volume at baseline and after 2.6 years. Linear regression modeling was used with adjustment for potential confounders. The median number of painful sites was 3 (range 0-7). There was a dose-response relationship between the number of painful sites and knee cartilage volume loss in the lateral and total tibiofemoral compartments (lateral β = -0.28% per annum; total β = -0.25% per annum, both P for trend knee osteoarthritis (OA) (P pain medication, and knee structural abnormalities. The number of painful sites independently predicts knee cartilage volume loss, especially in people without knee OA, suggesting that widespread pain may be an early marker of more rapid knee cartilage loss in those without radiographic knee OA. The underlying mechanism is unclear, but it is independent of anthropometrics, physical activity, and knee structural abnormalities. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

  18. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  19. Left Atrial Volume Index and Prediction of Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome: Solar Registry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Alves Secundo Junior

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: According to some international studies, patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS and increased left atrial volume index (LAVI have worse long-term prognosis. However, national Brazilian studies confirming this prediction are still lacking. Objective: To evaluate LAVI as a predictor of major cardiovascular events (MCE in patients with ACS during a 365-day follow-up. Methods: Prospective cohort of 171 patients diagnosed with ACS whose LAVI was calculated within 48 hours after hospital admission. According to LAVI, two groups were categorized: normal LAVI (≤ 32 mL/m2 and increased LAVI (> 32 mL/m2. Both groups were compared regarding clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, in- and out-of-hospital outcomes, and occurrence of ECM in up to 365 days. Results: Increased LAVI was observed in 78 patients (45%, and was associated with older age, higher body mass index, hypertension, history of myocardial infarction and previous angioplasty, and lower creatinine clearance and ejection fraction. During hospitalization, acute pulmonary edema was more frequent in patients with increased LAVI (14.1% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.024. After discharge, the occurrence of combined outcome for MCE was higher (p = 0.001 in the group with increased LAVI (26% as compared to the normal LAVI group (7% [RR (95% CI = 3.46 (1.54-7.73 vs. 0.80 (0.69-0.92]. After Cox regression, increased LAVI increased the probability of MCE (HR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.28-7.40, p = 0.012. Conclusion: Increased LAVI is an important predictor of MCE in a one-year follow-up.

  20. Prospective versus predictive control in timing of hitting a falling ball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsumata, Hiromu; Russell, Daniel M

    2012-02-01

    Debate exists as to whether humans use prospective or predictive control to intercept an object falling under gravity (Baurès et al. in Vis Res 47:2982-2991, 2007; Zago et al. in Vis Res 48:1532-1538, 2008). Prospective control involves using continuous information to regulate action. τ, the ratio of the size of the gap to the rate of gap closure, has been proposed as the information used in guiding interceptive actions prospectively (Lee in Ecol Psychol 10:221-250, 1998). This form of control is expected to generate movement modulation, where variability decreases over the course of an action based upon more accurate timing information. In contrast, predictive control assumes that a pre-programmed movement is triggered at an appropriate criterion timing variable. For a falling object it is commonly argued that an internal model of gravitational acceleration is used to predict the motion of the object and determine movement initiation. This form of control predicts fixed duration movements initiated at consistent time-to-contact (TTC), either across conditions (constant criterion operational timing) or within conditions (variable criterion operational timing). The current study sought to test predictive and prospective control hypotheses by disrupting continuous visual information of a falling ball and examining consistency in movement initiation and duration, and evidence for movement modulation. Participants (n = 12) batted a ball dropped from three different heights (1, 1.3 and 1.5 m), under both full-vision and partial occlusion conditions. In the occlusion condition, only the initial ball drop and the final 200 ms of ball flight to the interception point could be observed. The initiation of the swing did not occur at a consistent TTC, τ, or any other timing variable across drop heights, in contrast with previous research. However, movement onset was not impacted by occluding the ball flight for 280-380 ms. This finding indicates that humans did not

  1. Predicting volume of distribution with decision tree-based regression methods using predicted tissue:plasma partition coefficients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Alex A; Limbu, Kriti; Ghafourian, Taravat

    2015-01-01

    Volume of distribution is an important pharmacokinetic property that indicates the extent of a drug's distribution in the body tissues. This paper addresses the problem of how to estimate the apparent volume of distribution at steady state (Vss) of chemical compounds in the human body using decision tree-based regression methods from the area of data mining (or machine learning). Hence, the pros and cons of several different types of decision tree-based regression methods have been discussed. The regression methods predict Vss using, as predictive features, both the compounds' molecular descriptors and the compounds' tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kt:p) - often used in physiologically-based pharmacokinetics. Therefore, this work has assessed whether the data mining-based prediction of Vss can be made more accurate by using as input not only the compounds' molecular descriptors but also (a subset of) their predicted Kt:p values. Comparison of the models that used only molecular descriptors, in particular, the Bagging decision tree (mean fold error of 2.33), with those employing predicted Kt:p values in addition to the molecular descriptors, such as the Bagging decision tree using adipose Kt:p (mean fold error of 2.29), indicated that the use of predicted Kt:p values as descriptors may be beneficial for accurate prediction of Vss using decision trees if prior feature selection is applied. Decision tree based models presented in this work have an accuracy that is reasonable and similar to the accuracy of reported Vss inter-species extrapolations in the literature. The estimation of Vss for new compounds in drug discovery will benefit from methods that are able to integrate large and varied sources of data and flexible non-linear data mining methods such as decision trees, which can produce interpretable models. Graphical AbstractDecision trees for the prediction of tissue partition coefficient and volume of distribution of drugs.

  2. Early changes of parotid density and volume predict modifications at the end of therapy and intensity of acute xerostomia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belli, Maria Luisa; Scalco, Elisa; Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Fiorino, Claudio; Broggi, Sara; Dinapoli, Nicola; Ricchetti, Francesco; Valentini, Vincenzo; Rizzo, Giovanna; Cattaneo, Giovanni Mauro

    2014-10-01

    To quantitatively assess the predictive power of early variations of parotid gland volume and density on final changes at the end of therapy and, possibly, on acute xerostomia during IMRT for head-neck cancer. Data of 92 parotids (46 patients) were available. Kinetics of the changes during treatment were described by the daily rate of density (rΔρ) and volume (rΔvol) variation based on weekly diagnostic kVCT images. Correlation between early and final changes was investigated as well as the correlation with prospective toxicity data (CTCAEv3.0) collected weekly during treatment for 24/46 patients. A higher rΔρ was observed during the first compared to last week of treatment (-0,50 vs -0,05HU, p-value = 0.0001). Based on early variations, a good estimation of the final changes may be obtained (Δρ: AUC = 0.82, p = 0.0001; Δvol: AUC = 0.77, p = 0.0001). Both early rΔρ and rΔvol predict a higher "mean" acute xerostomia score (≥ median value, 1.57; p-value = 0.01). Median early density rate changes for patients with mean xerostomia score ≥ / xerostomia is well predicted by higher rΔρ and rΔvol in the first two weeks of treatment: best cut-off values were -0.50 HU/day and -380 mm(3)/day for rΔρ and rΔvol respectively. Further studies are necessary to definitively assess the potential of early density/volume changes in identifying more sensitive patients at higher risk of experiencing xerostomia.

  3. Prospects and Potential Uses of Genomic Prediction of Key Performance Traits in Tetraploid Potato

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Stich

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Genomic prediction is a routine tool in breeding programs of most major animal and plant species. However, its usefulness for potato breeding has not yet been evaluated in detail. The objectives of this study were to (i examine the prospects of genomic prediction of key performance traits in a diversity panel of tetraploid potato modeling additive, dominance, and epistatic effects, (ii investigate the effects of size and make up of training set, number of test environments and molecular markers on prediction accuracy, and (iii assess the effect of including markers from candidate genes on the prediction accuracy. With genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP, BayesA, BayesCπ, and Bayesian LASSO, four different prediction methods were used for genomic prediction of relative area under disease progress curve after a Phytophthora infestans infection, plant maturity, maturity corrected resistance, tuber starch content, tuber starch yield (TSY, and tuber yield (TY of 184 tetraploid potato clones or subsets thereof genotyped with the SolCAP 8.3k SNP array. The cross-validated prediction accuracies with GBLUP and the three Bayesian approaches for the six evaluated traits ranged from about 0.5 to about 0.8. For traits with a high expected genetic complexity, such as TSY and TY, we observed an 8% higher prediction accuracy using a model with additive and dominance effects compared with a model with additive effects only. Our results suggest that for oligogenic traits in general and when diagnostic markers are available in particular, the use of Bayesian methods for genomic prediction is highly recommended and that the diagnostic markers should be modeled as fixed effects. The evaluation of the relative performance of genomic prediction vs. phenotypic selection indicated that the former is superior, assuming cycle lengths and selection intensities that are possible to realize in commercial potato breeding programs.

  4. A prospective study on personality and the cortisol awakening response to predict posttraumatic stress symptoms in response to military deployment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Zuiden, Mirjam; Kavelaars, Annemieke; Rademaker, Arthur R.; Vermetten, Eric; Heijnen, Cobi J.; Geuze, Elbert

    2011-01-01

    Few prospective studies on pre-trauma predictors for subsequent development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have been conducted. In this study we prospectively investigated whether pre-deployment personality and the cortisol awakening response (CAR) predicted development of PTSD symptoms in

  5. Predictive Power of Prospective Physical Education Teachers' Attitudes towards Educational Technologies for Their Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varol, Yaprak Kalemoglu

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the research is to determine the predictive power of prospective physical education teachers' attitudes towards educational technologies for their technological pedagogical content knowledge. In this study, a relational research model was used on a study group that consisted of 529 (M[subscript age]=21.49, SD=1.44) prospective physical…

  6. Continuous electroencephalography predicts delayed cerebral ischemia after subarachnoid hemorrhage: A prospective study of diagnostic accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, Eric S; Biswal, Siddharth; Zafar, Sahar F; O'Connor, Kathryn L; Bechek, Sophia; Shenoy, Apeksha V; Boyle, Emily J; Shafi, Mouhsin M; Gilmore, Emily J; Foreman, Brandon P; Gaspard, Nicolas; Leslie-Mazwi, Thabele M; Rosand, Jonathan; Hoch, Daniel B; Ayata, Cenk; Cash, Sydney S; Cole, Andrew J; Patel, Aman B; Westover, M Brandon

    2018-04-16

    Delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) is a common, disabling complication of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Preventing DCI is a key focus of neurocritical care, but interventions carry risk and cannot be applied indiscriminately. Although retrospective studies have identified continuous electroencephalographic (cEEG) measures associated with DCI, no study has characterized the accuracy of cEEG with sufficient rigor to justify using it to triage patients to interventions or clinical trials. We therefore prospectively assessed the accuracy of cEEG for predicting DCI, following the Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy Studies. We prospectively performed cEEG in nontraumatic, high-grade SAH patients at a single institution. The index test consisted of clinical neurophysiologists prospectively reporting prespecified EEG alarms: (1) decreasing relative alpha variability, (2) decreasing alpha-delta ratio, (3) worsening focal slowing, or (4) late appearing epileptiform abnormalities. The diagnostic reference standard was DCI determined by blinded, adjudicated review. Primary outcome measures were sensitivity and specificity of cEEG for subsequent DCI, determined by multistate survival analysis, adjusted for baseline risk. One hundred three of 227 consecutive patients were eligible and underwent cEEG monitoring (7.7-day mean duration). EEG alarms occurred in 96.2% of patients with and 19.6% without subsequent DCI (1.9-day median latency, interquartile range = 0.9-4.1). Among alarm subtypes, late onset epileptiform abnormalities had the highest predictive value. Prespecified EEG findings predicted DCI among patients with low (91% sensitivity, 83% specificity) and high (95% sensitivity, 77% specificity) baseline risk. cEEG accurately predicts DCI following SAH and may help target therapies to patients at highest risk of secondary brain injury. Ann Neurol 2018. © 2018 American Neurological Association.

  7. Predicting surgical site infection after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

    2014-09-01

    The impact of surgical site infection (SSI) is substantial. Although previous study has determined relative risk and odds ratio (OR) values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of SSI, rather than relative risk or OR values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of SSI after spine surgery. This study performs a multivariate analysis of SSI after spine surgery using a large prospective surgical registry. Using the results of this analysis, this study will then create and validate a predictive model for SSI after spine surgery. The patient sample is from a high-quality surgical registry from our two institutions with prospectively collected, detailed demographic, comorbidity, and complication data. An SSI that required return to the operating room for surgical debridement. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,532 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication details recorded for 2 years after the surgery, we identified several risk factors for SSI after multivariate analysis. Using the beta coefficients from those regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of SSI after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created a predictive model based on our beta coefficients from our multivariate analysis. The final predictive model for SSI had a receiver-operator curve characteristic of 0.72, considered to be a fair measure. The final model has been uploaded for use on SpineSage.com. We present a validated model for predicting SSI after spine surgery. The value in this model is that it gives

  8. Thigh muscle volume predicted by anthropometric measurements and correlated with physical function in the older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, B B; Shih, T T F; Hsu, C Y; Yu, C W; Wei, S Y; Chen, C Y; Wu, C H; Chen, C Y

    2011-06-01

    (1) to correlate thigh muscle volume measured by magnetic resonance image (MRI) with anthropometric measurements and physical function in elderly subjects; (2) to predict MRI-measured thigh muscle volume using anthropometric measurements and physical functional status in elderly subjects. Cross-sectional, nonrandomized study. Outpatient clinic in Taiwan. Sixty-nine elderly subjects (33 men and 36 women) aged 65 and older. The anthropometric data (including body height, body weight, waist size, and thigh circumference), physical activity and function (including grip strength, bilateral quadriceps muscle power, the up and go test, chair rise, and five meters walk time) and bioelectrical impedance analysis data (including total body fat mass, fat-free mass, and predictive muscle size) were measured. MRI-measured muscle volume of both thighs was used as the reference standard. The MRI-measured thigh volume was positively correlated with all anthropometric data, quadriceps muscle power and the up and go test as well as fat-free mass and predictive muscle mass, whereas it was negatively associated with age and walk time. In predicting thigh muscle volume, the variables of age, gender, body weight, and thigh circumference were significant predictors in the linear regression model: Muscle volume (cm3) =4226.3-42.5 × Age (year)-955.7 × gender (male=1, female=2) + 45.9 × body weight(kg) + 60.0 × thigh circumference (cm) (r2 = 0.745, P estimate = 581.6 cm3). The current work provides evidence of a strong relationship between thigh muscle volume and physical function in the elderly. We also developed a prediction equation model using anthropometric measurements. This model is a simple and noninvasive method for everyday clinical practice and follow-up.

  9. Prediction of methotrexate intolerance in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a prospective, observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijkhuizen, Evert Hendrik Pieter; Bulatović Ćalasan, Maja; Pluijm, Saskia M F; de Rotte, Maurits C F J; Vastert, Sebastiaan J; Kamphuis, Sylvia; de Jonge, Robert; Wulffraat, Nico M

    2015-01-01

    Methotrexate (MTX) is an effective and safe drug in the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Despite its safety, MTX-related gastrointestinal adverse effects before and after MTX administration, termed MTX intolerance, occur frequently, leading to non-compliance and potentially premature MTX termination. The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to predict MTX intolerance. In a prospective JIA cohort, clinical variables and single nucleotide polymorphisms were determined at MTX start. The Methotrexate Intolerance Severity Score was employed to measure MTX intolerance in the first year of treatment. MTX intolerance was most prevalent at 6 or 12 months after MTX start, which was defined as the outcome for the prediction model. The model was developed in 152 patients using multivariable logistic regression analysis and subsequently internally validated using bootstrapping. The prediction model included the following predictors: JIA category, antinuclear antibody, parent/patient assessment of pain, Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score-27, thrombocytes, alanine aminotransferase and creatinine. The model classified 77.5% of patients correctly, and 66.7% of patients after internal validation by bootstrapping. The lowest predicted risk of MTX intolerance was 18.9% and the highest predicted risk was 85.9%. The prediction model was transformed into a risk score (range 0-17). At a cut-off of ≥6, sensitivity was 82.0%, specificity 56.1%, positive predictive value was 58.7% and negative predictive value 80.4%. This clinical prediction model showed moderate predictive power to detect MTX intolerance. To develop into a clinically usable tool, it should be validated in an independent cohort and updated with new predictors. Such an easy-to-use tool could then assist clinicians in identifying patients at risk to develop MTX intolerance, and in turn to monitor them closely and intervene timely in order to prevent the development of MTX intolerance

  10. Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 3; Validation and Test Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Bruce L.

    2010-01-01

    Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the third volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by validation studies that were done on three fan rigs. It concludes with recommended improvements and additional studies for BFaNS.

  11. Effects of Anti-VEGF on Predicted Antibody Biodistribution: Roles of Vascular Volume, Interstitial Volume, and Blood Flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boswell, C. Andrew; Ferl, Gregory Z.; Mundo, Eduardo E.; Bumbaca, Daniela; Schweiger, Michelle G.; Theil, Frank-Peter; Fielder, Paul J.; Khawli, Leslie A.

    2011-01-01

    Background The identification of clinically meaningful and predictive models of disposition kinetics for cancer therapeutics is an ongoing pursuit in drug development. In particular, the growing interest in preclinical evaluation of anti-angiogenic agents alone or in combination with other drugs requires a complete understanding of the associated physiological consequences. Methodology/Principal Findings Technescan™ PYP™, a clinically utilized radiopharmaceutical, was used to measure tissue vascular volumes in beige nude mice that were naïve or administered a single intravenous bolus dose of a murine anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) antibody (10 mg/kg) 24 h prior to assay. Anti-VEGF had no significant effect (p>0.05) on the fractional vascular volumes of any tissues studied; these findings were further supported by single photon emission computed tomographic imaging. In addition, apart from a borderline significant increase (p = 0.048) in mean hepatic blood flow, no significant anti-VEGF-induced differences were observed (p>0.05) in two additional physiological parameters, interstitial fluid volume and the organ blood flow rate, measured using indium-111-pentetate and rubidium-86 chloride, respectively. Areas under the concentration-time curves generated by a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model changed substantially (>25%) in several tissues when model parameters describing compartmental volumes and blood flow rates were switched from literature to our experimentally derived values. However, negligible changes in predicted tissue exposure were observed when comparing simulations based on parameters measured in naïve versus anti-VEGF-administered mice. Conclusions/Significance These observations may foster an enhanced understanding of anti-VEGF effects in murine tissues and, in particular, may be useful in modeling antibody uptake alone or in combination with anti-VEGF. PMID:21436893

  12. Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

  13. Comparision between Brain Atrophy and Subdural Volume to Predict Chronic Subdural Hematoma: Volumetric CT Imaging Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Min-Wook; Kim, Seon-Hwan; Kwon, Hyon-Jo; Choi, Seung-Won; Koh, Hyeon-Song; Youm, Jin-Young; Song, Shi-Hun

    2015-10-01

    Brain atrophy and subdural hygroma were well known factors that enlarge the subdural space, which induced formation of chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH). Thus, we identified the subdural volume that could be used to predict the rate of future CSDH after head trauma using a computed tomography (CT) volumetric analysis. A single institution case-control study was conducted involving 1,186 patients who visited our hospital after head trauma from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014. Fifty-one patients with delayed CSDH were identified, and 50 patients with age and sex matched for control. Intracranial volume (ICV), the brain parenchyme, and the subdural space were segmented using CT image-based software. To adjust for variations in head size, volume ratios were assessed as a percentage of ICV [brain volume index (BVI), subdural volume index (SVI)]. The maximum depth of the subdural space on both sides was used to estimate the SVI. Before adjusting for cranium size, brain volume tended to be smaller, and subdural space volume was significantly larger in the CSDH group (p=0.138, p=0.021, respectively). The BVI and SVI were significantly different (p=0.003, p=0.001, respectively). SVI [area under the curve (AUC), 77.3%; p=0.008] was a more reliable technique for predicting CSDH than BVI (AUC, 68.1%; p=0.001). Bilateral subdural depth (sum of subdural depth on both sides) increased linearly with SVI (pSubdural space volume was significantly larger in CSDH groups. SVI was a more reliable technique for predicting CSDH. Bilateral subdural depth was useful to measure SVI.

  14. Impact of tumour volume on prediction of progression-free survival in sinonasal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennersdorf, Florian; Mauz, Paul-Stefan; Adam, Patrick; Welz, Stefan; Sievert, Anne; Ernemann, Ulrike; Bisdas, Sotirios

    2015-01-01

    The present study aimed to analyse potential prognostic factors, with emphasis on tumour volume, in determining progression free survival (PFS) for malignancies of the nasal cavity and the paranasal sinuses. Retrospective analysis of 106 patients with primary sinonasal malignancies treated and followed-up between March 2006 and October 2012. Possible predictive parameters for PFS were entered into univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis included age, sex, baseline tumour volume (based on MR imaging), histology type, TNM stage and prognostic groups according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) classification. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis concerning the predictive value of tumour volume for recurrence was also conducted. The main histological subgroup consisted of epithelial tumours (77%). The majority of the patients (68%) showed advanced tumour burden (AJCC stage III–IV). Lymph node involvement was present in 18 cases. The mean tumour volume was 26.6 ± 21.2 cm 3 . The median PFS for all patients was 24.9 months (range: 2.5–84.5 months). The ROC curve analysis for the tumour volume showed 58.1% sensitivity and 75.4% specificity for predicting recurrence. Tumour volume, AJCC staging, T- and N- stage were significant predictors in the univariate analysis. Positive lymph node status and tumour volume remained significant and independent predictors in the multivariate analysis. Radiological tumour volume proofed to be a statistically reliable predictor of PFS. In the multivariate analysis, T-, N- and overall AJCC staging did not show significant prognostic value

  15. Short Term Prediction of Freeway Exiting Volume Based on SVM and KNN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wang

    2015-09-01

    The model results indicate that the proposed algorithm is feasible and accurate. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error is under 10%. When comparing with the results of single KNN or SVM method, the results show that the combination of KNN and SVM can improve the reliability of the prediction significantly. The proposed method can be implemented in the on-line application of exiting volume prediction, which is able to consider different vehicle types.

  16. Sensitivity Analysis of Wavelet Neural Network Model for Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinxing Shen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve a more accurate and robust traffic volume prediction model, the sensitivity of wavelet neural network model (WNNM is analyzed in this study. Based on real loop detector data which is provided by traffic police detachment of Maanshan, WNNM is discussed with different numbers of input neurons, different number of hidden neurons, and traffic volume for different time intervals. The test results show that the performance of WNNM depends heavily on network parameters and time interval of traffic volume. In addition, the WNNM with 4 input neurons and 6 hidden neurons is the optimal predictor with more accuracy, stability, and adaptability. At the same time, a much better prediction record will be achieved with the time interval of traffic volume are 15 minutes. In addition, the optimized WNNM is compared with the widely used back-propagation neural network (BPNN. The comparison results indicated that WNNM produce much lower values of MAE, MAPE, and VAPE than BPNN, which proves that WNNM performs better on short-term traffic volume prediction.

  17. Office gel sonovaginography for the prediction of posterior deep infiltrating endometriosis: a multicenter prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, S; Lu, C; Hardy, N; Casikar, I; Reid, G; Cario, G; Chou, D; Almashat, D; Condous, G

    2014-12-01

    To use office gel sonovaginography (SVG) to predict posterior deep infiltrating endometriosis (DIE) in women undergoing laparoscopy. This was a multicenter prospective observational study carried out between January 2009 and February 2013. All women were of reproductive age, had a history of chronic pelvic pain and underwent office gel SVG assessment for the prediction of posterior compartment DIE prior to laparoscopic endometriosis surgery. Gel SVG findings were compared with laparoscopic findings to determine the diagnostic accuracy of office gel SVG for the prediction of posterior compartment DIE. In total, 189 women underwent preoperative gel SVG and laparoscopy for endometriosis. At laparoscopy, 57 (30%) women had posterior DIE and 43 (23%) had rectosigmoid/anterior rectal DIE. For the prediction of rectosigmoid/anterior rectal (i.e. bowel) DIE, gel SVG had an accuracy of 92%, sensitivity of 88%, specificity of 93%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 79%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 97%, positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 12.9 and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.12 (P = 3.98E-25); for posterior vaginal wall and rectovaginal septum (RVS) DIE, respectively, the accuracy was 95% and 95%, sensitivity was 18% and 18%, specificity was 99% and 100%, PPV was 67% and 100%, NPV was 95% and 95%, LR+ was 32.4 and infinity and LR- was 0.82 and 0.82 (P = 0.009 and P = 0.003). Office gel SVG appears to be an effective outpatient imaging technique for the prediction of bowel DIE, with a higher accuracy for the prediction of rectosigmoid compared with anterior rectal DIE. Although the sensitivity for vaginal and RVS DIE was limited, gel SVG had a high specificity and NPV for all forms of posterior DIE, indicating that a negative gel SVG examination is highly suggestive of the absence of DIE at laparoscopy. Copyright © 2014 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. A prospective study of corpus callosum regional volumes and neurocognitive outcomes following cranial radiation for pediatric brain tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Arif; Ram, Ashwin N; Kates, Wendy R; Redmond, Kristin J; Wharam, Moody; Mark Mahone, E; Horska, Alena; Terezakis, Stephanie

    2017-06-01

    Cranial radiation therapy (CRT) may disrupt the corpus callosum (CC), which plays an important role in basic motor and cognitive functions. The aim of this prospective longitudinal study was to assess changes in CC mid-sagittal areas, CC volumes, and performance on neuropsychological (NP) tests related to the CC in children following CRT. Twelve pediatric patients were treated with CRT for primary brain malignancies. Thirteen age-matched healthy volunteers served as controls. Brain MRIs and NP assessment emphasizing motor dexterity, processing speed, visuomotor integration, and working memory (visual and verbal) were performed at baseline and at 6, 15, and 27 months following completion of CRT. Linear mixed effects (LME) analyses were used to evaluate patient NP performance and changes in regional CC volumes (genu, anterior body, mid-body, posterior body, and splenium) and mid-sagittal areas over time and with radiation doses, correcting for age at CRT start. The mean age at CRT was 9.41 (range 1.2-15.7) years. The median prescription dose was 54 (range 18-59.4) Gy. LME analysis revealed a significant decrease in overall CC volumes over time (p memory (both p memory. Further prospective study of larger cohorts of patients is needed to establish the relationship between CRT dose, neuroanatomical, and functional changes in the CC.

  19. Emphysema predicts hospitalisation and incident airflow obstruction among older smokers: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A McAllister

    Full Text Available Emphysema on CT is common in older smokers. We hypothesised that emphysema on CT predicts acute episodes of care for chronic lower respiratory disease among older smokers.Participants in a lung cancer screening study age ≥ 60 years were recruited into a prospective cohort study in 2001-02. Two radiologists independently visually assessed the severity of emphysema as absent, mild, moderate or severe. Percent emphysema was defined as the proportion of voxels ≤ -910 Hounsfield Units. Participants completed a median of 5 visits over a median of 6 years of follow-up. The primary outcome was hospitalization, emergency room or urgent office visit for chronic lower respiratory disease. Spirometry was performed following ATS/ERS guidelines. Airflow obstruction was defined as FEV1/FVC ratio <0.70 and FEV1<80% predicted.Of 521 participants, 4% had moderate or severe emphysema, which was associated with acute episodes of care (rate ratio 1.89; 95% CI: 1.01-3.52 adjusting for age, sex and race/ethnicity, as was percent emphysema, with similar associations for hospitalisation. Emphysema on visual assessment also predicted incident airflow obstruction (HR 5.14; 95% CI 2.19-21.1.Visually assessed emphysema and percent emphysema on CT predicted acute episodes of care for chronic lower respiratory disease, with the former predicting incident airflow obstruction among older smokers.

  20. Do race, neglect, and childhood poverty predict physical health in adulthood? A multilevel prospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikulina, Valentina; Widom, Cathy Spatz

    2014-03-01

    Childhood neglect and poverty often co-occur and both have been linked to poor physical health outcomes. In addition, Blacks have higher rates of childhood poverty and tend to have worse health than Whites. This paper examines the unique and interacting effects of childhood neglect, race, and family and neighborhood poverty on adult physical health outcomes. This prospective cohort design study uses a sample (N=675) of court-substantiated cases of childhood neglect and matched controls followed into adulthood (M(age)=41). Health indicators (C-Reactive Protein [CRP], hypertension, and pulmonary functioning) were assessed through blood collection and measurements by a registered nurse. Data were analyzed using hierarchical linear models to control for clustering of participants in childhood neighborhoods. Main effects showed that growing up Black predicted CRP and hypertension elevations, despite controlling for neglect and childhood family and neighborhood poverty and their interactions. Multivariate results showed that race and childhood adversities interacted to predict adult health outcomes. Childhood family poverty predicted increased risk for hypertension for Blacks, not Whites. In contrast, among Whites, childhood neglect predicted elevated CRP. Childhood neighborhood poverty interacted with childhood family poverty to predict pulmonary functioning in adulthood. Gender differences in health indicators were also observed. The effects of childhood neglect, childhood poverty, and growing up Black in the United States are manifest in physical health outcomes assessed 30 years later. Implications are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. PREDICTION OF THE MIXING ENTHALPIES OF BINARY LIQUID ALLOYS BY MOLECULAR INTERACTION VOLUME MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    H.W.Yang; D.P.Tao; Z.H.Zhou

    2008-01-01

    The mixing enthalpies of 23 binary liquid alloys are calculated by molecular interaction volume model (MIVM), which is a two-parameter model with the partial molar infinite dilute mixing enthalpies. The predicted values are in agreement with the experimental data and then indicate that the model is reliable and convenient.

  2. Prediction of sonic boom from experimental near-field overpressure data. Volume 2: Data base construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glatt, C. R.; Reiners, S. J.; Hague, D. S.

    1975-01-01

    A computerized method for storing, updating and augmenting experimentally determined overpressure signatures has been developed. A data base of pressure signatures for a shuttle type vehicle has been stored. The data base has been used for the prediction of sonic boom with the program described in Volume I.

  3. Development of equations for predicting Puerto Rican subtropical dry forest biomass and volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas J. Brandeis; Matthew Delaney; Bernard R. Parresol; Larry Royer

    2006-01-01

    Carbon accounting, forest health monitoring and sustainable management of the subtropical dry forests of Puerto Rico and other Caribbean Islands require an accurate assessment of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) and stem volume. One means of improving assessment accuracy is the development of predictive equations derived from locally collected data. Forest inventory...

  4. Individual differences in episodic memory abilities predict successful prospective memory output monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter Ball, B; Pitães, Margarida; Brewer, Gene A

    2018-02-07

    Output monitoring refers to memory for one's previously completed actions. In the context of prospective memory (PM) (e.g., remembering to take medication), failures of output monitoring can result in repetitions and omissions of planned actions (e.g., over- or under-medication). To be successful in output monitoring paradigms, participants must flexibly control attention to detect PM cues as well as engage controlled retrieval of previous actions whenever a particular cue is encountered. The current study examined individual differences in output monitoring abilities in a group of younger adults differing in attention control (AC) and episodic memory (EM) abilities. The results showed that AC ability uniquely predicted successful cue detection on the first presentation, whereas EM ability uniquely predicted successful output monitoring on the second presentation. The current study highlights the importance of examining external correlates of PM abilities and contributes to the growing body of research on individual differences in PM.

  5. Past, present and prospect of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based model for sediment transport prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin; El-shafie, Ahmed; Mohtar, Wan Hanna Melini Wan; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher

    2016-10-01

    An accurate model for sediment prediction is a priority for all hydrological researchers. Many conventional methods have shown an inability to achieve an accurate prediction of suspended sediment. These methods are unable to understand the behaviour of sediment transport in rivers due to the complexity, noise, non-stationarity, and dynamism of the sediment pattern. In the past two decades, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and computational approaches have become a remarkable tool for developing an accurate model. These approaches are considered a powerful tool for solving any non-linear model, as they can deal easily with a large number of data and sophisticated models. This paper is a review of all AI approaches that have been applied in sediment modelling. The current research focuses on the development of AI application in sediment transport. In addition, the review identifies major challenges and opportunities for prospective research. Throughout the literature, complementary models superior to classical modelling.

  6. Low self-esteem prospectively predicts depression in adolescence and young adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Ulrich; Robins, Richard W; Roberts, Brent W

    2008-09-01

    Low self-esteem and depression are strongly correlated in cross-sectional studies, yet little is known about their prospective effects on each other. The vulnerability model hypothesizes that low self-esteem serves as a risk factor for depression, whereas the scar model hypothesizes that low self-esteem is an outcome, not a cause, of depression. To test these models, the authors used 2 large longitudinal data sets, each with 4 repeated assessments between the ages of 15 and 21 years and 18 and 21 years, respectively. Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that low self-esteem predicted subsequent levels of depression, but depression did not predict subsequent levels of self-esteem. These findings held for both men and women and after controlling for content overlap between the self-esteem and depression scales. Thus, the results supported the vulnerability model, but not the scar model, of self-esteem and depression.

  7. Appraisal in a Team Context: Perceptions of Cohesion Predict Competition Importance and Prospects for Coping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Svenja A; Eys, Mark A; Sadler, Pamela; Kleinert, Jens

    2015-10-01

    Athletes' precompetitive appraisal is important because it determines emotions, which may impact performance. When part of a team, athletes make their appraisal within a social context, and in this study we examined whether perceived team cohesion, as a characteristic of this context, related to appraisal. We asked 386 male and female intercollegiate team-sport athletes to respond to measures of cohesion and precompetitive appraisal before an in-season game. For males and females, across all teams, (a) an appraisal of increased competition importance was predicted by perceptions of higher task cohesion (individual level), better previous team performance, and a weaker opponent (team level) and (b) an appraisal of more positive prospects for coping with competitive demands was predicted by higher individual attractions to the group (individual level). Consequently, athletes who perceive their team as more cohesive likely appraise the pending competition as a challenge, which would benefit both emotions and performance.

  8. Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

    2017-12-01

    We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

  9. Remnant pancreatic parenchymal volume predicts postoperative pancreatic exocrine insufficiency after pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okano, Keisuke; Murakami, Yoshiaki; Nakagawa, Naoya; Uemura, Kenichiro; Sudo, Takeshi; Hashimoto, Yasushi; Kondo, Naru; Takahashi, Shinya; Sueda, Taijiro

    2016-03-01

    Pancreatectomy, including pancreatoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy, often causes postoperative pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI). Our aim was to clarify a relationship between remnant pancreatic volume and postoperative PEI. A total of 227 patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy or distal pancreatectomy were enrolled in this study. All patients underwent a (13)C-labeled mixed triglyceride breath test to assess pancreatic exocrine function and abdominal dynamic computed tomography for assessing remnant pancreatic volume after pancreatectomy at a median of 7 months postoperatively. The percent (13)CO2 cumulative dose at 7 hours (% dose (13)C cum 7 h) pancreatectomy were performed in 174 (76.7%) and 53 (23.3%) patients, respectively. Of the 227 patients, 128 (56.3%) developed postoperative PEI. Postoperative % dose (13)C cum 7 h was strongly correlated with remnant pancreatic volume (r = .509, P pancreatectomy (P pancreatectomy. Remnant pancreatic volume may predict postoperative PEI in patients who undergo pancreatectomy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Dose-volume effects for pelvic bone marrow in predicting hematological toxicity in prostate cancer radiotherapy with pelvic node irradiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sini, Carla; Fiorino, Claudio; Perna, Lucia; Noris Chiorda, Barbara; Deantoni, Chiara Lucrezia; Bianchi, Marco; Sacco, Vincenzo; Briganti, Alberto; Montorsi, Francesco; Calandrino, Riccardo; Di Muzio, Nadia; Cozzarini, Cesare

    2016-01-01

    To prospectively identify clinical/dosimetric predictors of acute/late hematologic toxicity (HT) in chemo-naÏve patients treated with whole-pelvis radiotherapy (WPRT) for prostate cancer. Data of 121 patients treated with adjuvant/salvage WPRT were analyzed (static-field IMRT n=19; VMAT/Rapidarc n=57; Tomotherapy n=45). Pelvic bone marrow (BM) was delineated as ilium (IL), lumbosacral, lower and whole pelvis (WP), and the relative DVHs were calculated. HT was graded both according to CTCAE v4.03 and as variation in percentage relative to baseline. Logistic regression was used to analyze association between HT and clinical/DVHs factors. Significant differences (p<0.005) in the DVH of BM volumes between different techniques were found: Tomotherapy was associated with larger volumes receiving low doses (3-20 Gy) and smaller receiving 40-50 Gy. Lower baseline absolute values of WBC, neutrophils and lymphocytes (ALC) predicted acute/late HT (p ⩽ 0.001). Higher BM V40 was associated with higher risk of acute Grade3 (OR=1.018) or late Grade2 lymphopenia (OR=1.005). Two models predicting lymphopenia were developed, both including baseline ALC, and BM WP-V40 (AUC=0.73) and IL-V40+smoking (AUC=0.904) for acute/late respectively. Specific regions of pelvic BM predicting acute/late lymphopenia, a risk factor for viral infections, were identified. The 2-variable models including specific constraints to BM may help reduce HT. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Examining the specific dimensions of distress tolerance that prospectively predict perceived stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardeen, Joseph R; Fergus, Thomas A; Orcutt, Holly K

    2017-04-01

    We examined five dimensions of distress tolerance (i.e. uncertainty, ambiguity, frustration, negative emotion, physical discomfort) as prospective predictors of perceived stress. Undergraduate students (N = 135) completed self-report questionnaires over the course of two assessment sessions (T1 and T2). Results of a linear regression in which the five dimensions of distress tolerance and covariates (i.e. T1 perceived stress, duration between T1 and T2) served as predictor variables and T2 perceived stress served as the outcome variable showed that intolerance of uncertainty was the only dimension of distress tolerance to predict T2 perceived stress. To better understand this prospective association, we conducted a post hoc analysis simultaneously regressing two subdimensions of intolerance of uncertainty on T2 perceived stress. The subdimension representing beliefs that "uncertainty has negative behavioral and self-referent implications" significantly predicted T2 perceived stress, while the subdimension indicating that "uncertainty is unfair and spoils everything" did not. Results support a growing body of research suggesting intolerance of uncertainty as a risk factor for a wide variety of maladaptive psychological outcomes. Clinical implications will be discussed.

  12. Risk prediction of emergency department revisit 30 days post discharge: a prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiying Hao

    Full Text Available Among patients who are discharged from the Emergency Department (ED, about 3% return within 30 days. Revisits can be related to the nature of the disease, medical errors, and/or inadequate diagnoses and treatment during their initial ED visit. Identification of high-risk patient population can help device new strategies for improved ED care with reduced ED utilization.A decision tree based model with discriminant Electronic Medical Record (EMR features was developed and validated, estimating patient ED 30 day revisit risk. A retrospective cohort of 293,461 ED encounters from HealthInfoNet (HIN, Maine's Health Information Exchange (HIE, between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2012, was assembled with the associated patients' demographic information and one-year clinical histories before the discharge date as the inputs. To validate, a prospective cohort of 193,886 encounters between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013 was constructed. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective predictions were 0.710 and 0.704 respectively. Clinical resource utilization, including ED use, was analyzed as a function of the ED risk score. Cluster analysis of high-risk patients identified discrete sub-populations with distinctive demographic, clinical and resource utilization patterns.Our ED 30-day revisit model was prospectively validated on the Maine State HIN secure statewide data system. Future integration of our ED predictive analytics into the ED care work flow may lead to increased opportunities for targeted care intervention to reduce ED resource burden and overall healthcare expense, and improve outcomes.

  13. Elevated left mid-frontal cortical activity prospectively predicts conversion to bipolar I disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nusslock, Robin; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Alloy, Lauren B.; Urosevic, Snezana; Goldstein, Kim; Abramson, Lyn Y.

    2013-01-01

    Bipolar disorder is characterized by a hypersensitivity to reward-relevant cues and a propensity to experience an excessive increase in approach-related affect, which may be reflected in hypo/manic symptoms. The present study examined the relationship between relative left-frontal electroencephalographic (EEG) activity, a proposed neurophysiological index of approach-system sensitivity and approach/reward-related affect, and bipolar course and state-related variables. Fifty-eight individuals with cyclothymia or bipolar II disorder and 59 healthy control participants with no affective psychopathology completed resting EEG recordings. Alpha power was obtained and asymmetry indices computed for homologous electrodes. Bipolar spectrum participants were classified as being in a major/minor depressive episode, a hypomanic episode, or a euthymic/remitted state at EEG recording. Participants were then followed prospectively for an average 4.7 year follow-up period with diagnostic interview assessments every four-months. Sixteen bipolar spectrum participants converted to bipolar I disorder during follow-up. Consistent with hypotheses, elevated relative left-frontal EEG activity at baseline 1) prospectively predicted a greater likelihood of converting from cyclothymia or bipolar II disorder to bipolar I disorder over the 4.7 year follow-up period, 2) was associated with an earlier age-of-onset of first bipolar spectrum episode, and 3) was significantly elevated in bipolar spectrum individuals in a hypomanic episode at EEG recording. This is the first study to identify a neurophysiological marker that prospectively predicts conversion to bipolar I disorder. The fact that unipolar depression is characterized by decreased relative left-frontal EEG activity suggests that unipolar depression and vulnerability to hypo/mania may be characterized by different profiles of frontal EEG asymmetry. PMID:22775582

  14. Infarct volume predicts critical care needs in stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faigle, Roland; Marsh, Elisabeth B.; Llinas, Rafael H.; Urrutia, Victor C. [Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Neurology, Baltimore, MD (United States); Wozniak, Amy W. [Johns Hopkins University, Department of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (United States)

    2014-10-26

    Patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (IVT) for ischemic stroke are monitored in an intensive care unit (ICU) or a comparable unit capable of ICU interventions due to the high frequency of standardized neurological exams and vital sign checks. The present study evaluates quantitative infarct volume on early post-IVT MRI as a predictor of critical care needs and aims to identify patients who may not require resource intense monitoring. We identified 46 patients who underwent MRI within 6 h of IVT. Infarct volume was measured using semiautomated software. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis were used to determine factors associated with ICU needs. Infarct volume was an independent predictor of ICU need after adjusting for age, sex, race, systolic blood pressure, NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and coronary artery disease (odds ratio 1.031 per cm{sup 3} increase in volume, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.004-1.058, p = 0.024). The ROC curve with infarct volume alone achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.766 (95 % CI 0.605-0.927), while the AUC was 0.906 (95 % CI 0.814-0.998) after adjusting for race, systolic blood pressure, and NIHSS. Maximum Youden index calculations identified an optimal infarct volume cut point of 6.8 cm{sup 3} (sensitivity 75.0 %, specificity 76.7 %). Infarct volume greater than 3 cm{sup 3} predicted need for critical care interventions with 81.3 % sensitivity and 66.7 % specificity. Infarct volume may predict needs for ICU monitoring and interventions in stroke patients treated with IVT. (orig.)

  15. Infarct volume predicts critical care needs in stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faigle, Roland; Marsh, Elisabeth B.; Llinas, Rafael H.; Urrutia, Victor C.; Wozniak, Amy W.

    2015-01-01

    Patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (IVT) for ischemic stroke are monitored in an intensive care unit (ICU) or a comparable unit capable of ICU interventions due to the high frequency of standardized neurological exams and vital sign checks. The present study evaluates quantitative infarct volume on early post-IVT MRI as a predictor of critical care needs and aims to identify patients who may not require resource intense monitoring. We identified 46 patients who underwent MRI within 6 h of IVT. Infarct volume was measured using semiautomated software. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis were used to determine factors associated with ICU needs. Infarct volume was an independent predictor of ICU need after adjusting for age, sex, race, systolic blood pressure, NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and coronary artery disease (odds ratio 1.031 per cm 3 increase in volume, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.004-1.058, p = 0.024). The ROC curve with infarct volume alone achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.766 (95 % CI 0.605-0.927), while the AUC was 0.906 (95 % CI 0.814-0.998) after adjusting for race, systolic blood pressure, and NIHSS. Maximum Youden index calculations identified an optimal infarct volume cut point of 6.8 cm 3 (sensitivity 75.0 %, specificity 76.7 %). Infarct volume greater than 3 cm 3 predicted need for critical care interventions with 81.3 % sensitivity and 66.7 % specificity. Infarct volume may predict needs for ICU monitoring and interventions in stroke patients treated with IVT. (orig.)

  16. Prediction of Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Academic Success in Entering Graduate Education by Using Back-Propagation Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahadir, Elif

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine a neural network based approach to predict achievement in graduate education for Elementary Mathematics prospective teachers. With the help of this study, it can be possible to make an effective prediction regarding the students' achievement in graduate education with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two…

  17. Predicting Early Fatherhood and Whether Young Fathers Live with Their Children: Prospective Findings and Policy Recommendations. Discussion Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffee, Sara R.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Taylor, Alan; Dickson, Nigel

    This prospective, birth cohort study addressed three questions: Which individual and family-of-origin characteristics predict the age at which young men make the transition to fatherhood? Do these characteristics predict how long young men live with their children? Are individual differences in the amount of time fathers spend living with their…

  18. Prediction of Spirometric Forced Expiratory Volume (FEV1) Data Using Support Vector Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavitha, A.; Sujatha, C. M.; Ramakrishnan, S.

    2010-01-01

    In this work, prediction of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) in pulmonary function test is carried out using the spirometer and support vector regression analysis. Pulmonary function data are measured with flow volume spirometer from volunteers (N=175) using a standard data acquisition protocol. The acquired data are then used to predict FEV1. Support vector machines with polynomial kernel function with four different orders were employed to predict the values of FEV1. The performance is evaluated by computing the average prediction accuracy for normal and abnormal cases. Results show that support vector machines are capable of predicting FEV1 in both normal and abnormal cases and the average prediction accuracy for normal subjects was higher than that of abnormal subjects. Accuracy in prediction was found to be high for a regularization constant of C=10. Since FEV1 is the most significant parameter in the analysis of spirometric data, it appears that this method of assessment is useful in diagnosing the pulmonary abnormalities with incomplete data and data with poor recording.

  19. Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

    2014-05-01

    Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

  20. Prediction of immediate postoperative pain using the analgesia/nociception index: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boselli, E; Bouvet, L; Bégou, G; Dabouz, R; Davidson, J; Deloste, J-Y; Rahali, N; Zadam, A; Allaouchiche, B

    2014-04-01

    The analgesia/nociception index (ANI) is derived from heart rate variability, ranging from 0 (maximal nociception) to 100 (maximal analgesia), to reflect the analgesia/nociception balance during general anaesthesia. This should be correlated with immediate postoperative pain in the post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of ANI measured at arousal from general anaesthesia to predict immediate postoperative pain on arrival in PACU. Two hundred patients undergoing ear, nose, and throat or lower limb orthopaedic surgery with general anaesthesia using an inhalational agent and remifentanil were included in this prospective observational study. The ANI was measured immediately before tracheal extubation and pain intensity was assessed within 10 min of arrival in PACU using a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). The relationship between ANI and NRS was assessed using linear regression. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the performance of ANI to predict NRS>3. A negative linear relationship was observed between ANI immediately before extubation and NRS on arrival in PACU. Using a threshold of 3 were both 86% with 92% negative predictive value, corresponding to an area under the ROC curve of 0.89. The measurement of ANI immediately before extubation after inhalation-remifentanil anaesthesia was significantly associated with pain intensity on arrival in PACU. The performance of ANI for the prediction of immediate postoperative pain is good and may assist physicians in optimizing acute pain management. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01796249.

  1. Performance Prediction Modelling for Flexible Pavement on Low Volume Roads Using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Makendran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction models for low volume village roads in India are developed to evaluate the progression of different types of distress such as roughness, cracking, and potholes. Even though the Government of India is investing huge quantum of money on road construction every year, poor control over the quality of road construction and its subsequent maintenance is leading to the faster road deterioration. In this regard, it is essential that scientific maintenance procedures are to be evolved on the basis of performance of low volume flexible pavements. Considering the above, an attempt has been made in this research endeavor to develop prediction models to understand the progression of roughness, cracking, and potholes in flexible pavements exposed to least or nil routine maintenance. Distress data were collected from the low volume rural roads covering about 173 stretches spread across Tamil Nadu state in India. Based on the above collected data, distress prediction models have been developed using multiple linear regression analysis. Further, the models have been validated using independent field data. It can be concluded that the models developed in this study can serve as useful tools for the practicing engineers maintaining flexible pavements on low volume roads.

  2. Early EEG for outcome prediction of postanoxic coma: prospective cohort study with cost-minimization analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sondag, Lotte; Ruijter, Barry J; Tjepkema-Cloostermans, Marleen C; Beishuizen, Albertus; Bosch, Frank H; van Til, Janine A; van Putten, Michel J A M; Hofmeijer, Jeannette

    2017-05-15

    We recently showed that electroencephalography (EEG) patterns within the first 24 hours robustly contribute to multimodal prediction of poor or good neurological outcome of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. Here, we confirm these results and present a cost-minimization analysis. Early prognosis contributes to communication between doctors and family, and may prevent inappropriate treatment. A prospective cohort study including 430 subsequent comatose patients after cardiac arrest was conducted at intensive care units of two teaching hospitals. Continuous EEG was started within 12 hours after cardiac arrest and continued up to 3 days. EEG patterns were visually classified as unfavorable (isoelectric, low-voltage, or burst suppression with identical bursts) or favorable (continuous patterns) at 12 and 24 hours after cardiac arrest. Outcome at 6 months was classified as good (cerebral performance category (CPC) 1 or 2) or poor (CPC 3, 4, or 5). Predictive values of EEG measures and cost-consequences from a hospital perspective were investigated, assuming EEG-based decision- making about withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in the case of a poor predicted outcome. Poor outcome occurred in 197 patients (51% of those included in the analyses). Unfavorable EEG patterns at 24 hours predicted a poor outcome with specificity of 100% (95% CI 98-100%) and sensitivity of 29% (95% CI 22-36%). Favorable patterns at 12 hours predicted good outcome with specificity of 88% (95% CI 81-93%) and sensitivity of 51% (95% CI 42-60%). Treatment withdrawal based on an unfavorable EEG pattern at 24 hours resulted in a reduced mean ICU length of stay without increased mortality in the long term. This gave small cost reductions, depending on the timing of withdrawal. Early EEG contributes to reliable prediction of good or poor outcome of postanoxic coma and may lead to reduced length of ICU stay. In turn, this may bring small cost reductions.

  3. Estimation of clinically significant prostate volumes by digital rectal examination: a comparative prospective study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ahmad, Sarfraz

    2011-12-01

    Reliable quantification of prostate volume is important to correctly select patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) most likely to benefit from medical therapy [e.g. 5 alpha-reductase inhibitors (5-ARIs)] and in selecting appropriate surgical approach. We aim to determine the reliability of digital rectal examination (DRE) in estimation of prostate volume which may be helpful in patient selection for 5-ARIs therapy.

  4. A physical multifield model predicts the development of volume and structure in the human brain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooij, Rijk de; Kuhl, Ellen

    2018-03-01

    The prenatal development of the human brain is characterized by a rapid increase in brain volume and a development of a highly folded cortex. At the cellular level, these events are enabled by symmetric and asymmetric cell division in the ventricular regions of the brain followed by an outwards cell migration towards the peripheral regions. The role of mechanics during brain development has been suggested and acknowledged in past decades, but remains insufficiently understood. Here we propose a mechanistic model that couples cell division, cell migration, and brain volume growth to accurately model the developing brain between weeks 10 and 29 of gestation. Our model accurately predicts a 160-fold volume increase from 1.5 cm3 at week 10 to 235 cm3 at week 29 of gestation. In agreement with human brain development, the cortex begins to form around week 22 and accounts for about 30% of the total brain volume at week 29. Our results show that cell division and coupling between cell density and volume growth are essential to accurately model brain volume development, whereas cell migration and diffusion contribute mainly to the development of the cortex. We demonstrate that complex folding patterns, including sinusoidal folds and creases, emerge naturally as the cortex develops, even for low stiffness contrasts between the cortex and subcortex.

  5. Value of the regurgitant volume to end diastolic volume ratio to predict the regression of left ventricular dimensions after valve replacement in aortic insufficiency

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.M. Fioretti (Paolo); C. Tirtaman; E. Bos (Egbert); P.W.J.C. Serruys (Patrick); J.R.T.C. Roelandt (Jos)

    1987-01-01

    textabstractThe aim of this study was to assess the value of regurgitant stroke volume (RSV) to end-diastolic volume (EDV) ratio to predict the regression of left ventricular (LV) dimensions after uncomplicated valve replacement in 34 patients with severe pure aortic insufficiency. The RSV/EDV ratio

  6. What Factors are Predictive of Patient-reported Outcomes? A Prospective Study of 337 Shoulder Arthroplasties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsen, Frederick A; Russ, Stacy M; Vu, Phuong T; Hsu, Jason E; Lucas, Robert M; Comstock, Bryan A

    2016-11-01

    Although shoulder arthroplasties generally are effective in improving patients' comfort and function, the results are variable for reasons that are not well understood. We posed two questions: (1) What factors are associated with better 2-year outcomes after shoulder arthroplasty? (2) What are the sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values of a multivariate predictive model for better outcome? Three hundred thirty-nine patients having a shoulder arthroplasty (hemiarthroplasty, arthroplasty for cuff tear arthropathy, ream and run arthroplasty, total shoulder or reverse total shoulder arthroplasty) between August 24, 2010 and December 31, 2012 consented to participate in this prospective study. Two patients were excluded because they were missing baseline variables. Forty-three patients were missing 2-year data. Univariate and multivariate analyses determined the relationship of baseline patient, shoulder, and surgical characteristics to a "better" outcome, defined as an improvement of at least 30% of the maximal possible improvement in the Simple Shoulder Test. The results were used to develop a predictive model, the accuracy of which was tested using a 10-fold cross-validation. After controlling for potentially relevant confounding variables, the multivariate analysis showed that the factors significantly associated with better outcomes were American Society of Anesthesiologists Class I (odds ratio [OR], 1.94; 95% CI, 1.03-3.65; p = 0.041), shoulder problem not related to work (OR, 5.36; 95% CI, 2.15-13.37; p factors listed above. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve generated from the cross-validated enhanced predictive model was 0.79 (generally values of 0.7 to 0.8 are considered fair and values of 0.8 to 0.9 are considered good). The false-positive fraction and the true-positive fraction depended on the cutoff probability selected (ie, the selected probability above which the prediction would be classified as

  7. Predicting medical complications after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

    2014-02-01

    The possibility and likelihood of a postoperative medical complication after spine surgery undoubtedly play a major role in the decision making of the surgeon and patient alike. Although prior study has determined relative risk and odds ratio values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of medical complication, rather than relative risk or odds ratio values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of medical complication during and after spine surgery. Statistical analysis using a prospective surgical spine registry that recorded extensive demographic, surgical, and complication data. Outcomes examined are medical complications that were specifically defined a priori. This analysis is a continuation of statistical analysis of our previously published report. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,476 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication detail recorded for 2 years after surgery, we previously identified several risk factor for medical complications. Using the beta coefficients from those log binomial regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of medical complication after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created two predictive models: one predicting the occurrence of any medical complication and the other predicting the occurrence of a major medical complication. The final predictive model for any medical complications had a receiver operator curve characteristic of 0.76, considered to be a fair measure. The final predictive model for any major medical complications had

  8. Narcissism and Callous-Unemotional Traits Prospectively Predict Child Conduct Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jezior, Kristen L; McKenzie, Meghan E; Lee, Steve S

    2016-01-01

    Although narcissism and callous-unemotional (CU) traits are separable facets of psychopathy, their independent prediction of conduct problems (CP) among young children is not well known. In addition, above-average IQ was central to the original conceptualization of psychopathy, yet IQ is typically inversely associated with youth CP. We examined narcissism and CU traits as independent and prospective predictors of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), conduct disorder (CD), and youth self-reported antisocial behavior, as well as their moderation by IQ. At baseline, parents and teachers separately rated narcissism and CU traits in 188 6-to-10-year-old children (47.9% non-White; 69.1% male; M = 7.34 years, SD = 1.09) with (n = 99) and without (n = 89) attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Approximately 2 years later, parents and teachers separately rated youth ODD and CD symptoms, and youth self-reported antisocial behavior. With control of baseline ADHD and ODD/CD symptoms, narcissism and CU traits independently and positively predicted ODD and CD symptoms at follow-up. IQ did not moderate any CP predictions from baseline narcissism or CU traits. These preliminary findings suggest that individual differences in narcissism and CU traits, even relatively early in development, are uniquely associated with emergent CP. Findings are considered within a developmental framework and the multiple pathways underlying the heterogeneity of CP are discussed.

  9. Stressful Life Events Predict Eating Disorder Relapse Following Remission: Six-Year Prospective Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilo, Carlos M.; Pagano, Maria E.; Stout, Robert L.; Markowitz, John C.; Ansell, Emily B.; Pinto, Anthony; Zanarini, Mary C.; Yen, Shirley; Skodol, Andrew E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To examine prospectively the natural course of bulimia nervosa (BN) and eating disorder not-otherwise-specified (EDNOS) and test for the effects of stressful life events (SLE) on relapse after remission from these eating disorders. Method 117 female patients with BN (N = 35) or EDNOS (N = 82) were prospectively followed for 72 months using structured interviews performed at baseline, 6- and 12-months, and then yearly thereafter. ED were assessed with the structured clinical interview for DSM-IV, and monitored over time with the longitudinal interval follow-up evaluation. Personality disorders were assessed with the diagnostic interview for DSM-IV-personality-disorders, and monitored over time with the follow-along-version. The occurrence and specific timing of SLE were assessed with the life events assessment interview. Cox proportional-hazard-regression-analyses tested associations between time-varying levels of SLE and ED relapse, controlling for comorbid psychiatric disorders, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status. Results ED relapse probability was 43%; BN and EDNOS did not differ in time to relapse. Negative SLE significantly predicted ED relapse; elevated work and social stressors were significant predictors. Psychiatric comorbidity, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status were not significant predictors. Discussion Higher work and social stress represent significant warning signs for triggering relapse for women with remitted BN and EDNOS. PMID:21448971

  10. Hippocampal volume and CDR-SB can predict conversion to dementia in MCI patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Guilherme Fiorani Borgio

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the combination of two factors: clinical dementia rating sum of boxes scores (CDR-SB and hippocampal volume (HV as predictors of conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI to dementia. METHODS: Twenty-eight individuals (9 normal and 19 with MCI were classified according to their CDR sum of boxes scores into 3 groups. RESULTS: The hippocampal volume was significantly lower in the high-risk group and in those who developed dementia after two years. The rate of conversion was crescent among the three groups. CONCLUSION: We were proposed an additional measurement of the hippocampal volume which may be helpful in the prognosis. However, we noted that the CDR-SB is a method as efficient as neuroimaging to predict dementia with the advantage of being a procedure for low cost and easy implementation, more consistent with public policy.

  11. Predictive value of radioculography in patients with lumbago-sciatica. A prospective study (part 2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espersen, J.O.; Kosteljanetz, M. (University Hospital, Aarhus (Denmark). Dept. of Neurosurgery); Halaburt, H.; Miletic, T. (University Hospital, Aarhus (Denmark). Dept. of Neuroradiology)

    1984-01-01

    One hundred patients with symptoms of lumbo-sacral root compression were prospectively and consecutively assigned to operation based alone on clinical findings. A preoperative myelogram was performed in all patients and described without a knowledge of the clinical features. All patients were explored for the clinically and myelographically relevant disc. When the myelogram was normal (16 patients) both lower lumbar interspaces were exposed. In 58 patients a herniated disc was revealed at surgery. Only 'myelographic herniation' with indentation of the contrast column was accompanied by a high frequency of disc herniation at surgery (73-87%). In cases with normal myelograms only 5% had a disc herniation. The severity of the myelographic finding was clearly correlated to the frequency of positive surgical findings and good outcomes. The preoperative radiculogram gives a high degree of certainty in the preoperative evaluation whether a surgical lesion is present or not and reveals a precise prediction of the outcome of surgery.

  12. Body dissatisfaction prospectively predicts depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Susan J; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J; Eisenberg, Marla E

    2006-12-01

    This research examined whether body dissatisfaction prospectively predicted depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys 5 years later. Participants were early-adolescent girls (n = 440, Time 1 M age = 12.7 years) and boys (n = 366, Time 1 M age = 12.8 years) and midadolescent girls (n = 946, Time 1 M age = 15.8 years) and boys (n = 764, Time 1 M age = 15.9 years). After controlling for Time 1 of the relevant dependent variable, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and body mass index, Time 1 body dissatisfaction was a unique predictor of Time 2 depressive mood and low self-esteem in early-adolescent girls (depressive mood: F = 4.80, p self-esteem: F = 9.64, p p self-esteem: F = 9.38, p low self-esteem in both girls and boys but in different phases of adolescence.

  13. Baseline social amotivation predicts 1-year functioning in UHR subjects: A validation and prospective investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Max; Abdul Rashid, Nur Amirah; Lee, Sara-Ann; Lim, Jeanette; Foussias, George; Fervaha, Gagan; Ruhrman, Stephan; Remington, Gary; Lee, Jimmy

    2015-12-01

    Social amotivation and diminished expression have been reported to underlie negative symptomatology in schizophrenia. In the current study we sought to establish and validate these negative symptom domains in a large cohort of schizophrenia subjects (n=887) and individuals who are deemed to be Ultra-High Risk (UHR) for psychosis. Confirmatory factor analysis conducted on PANSS item domains demonstrate that the dual negative symptom domains exist in schizophrenia and UHR subjects. We further sought to examine if these negative symptom domains were associated with functioning in UHR subjects. Linear regression analyses confirmed that social amotivation predicted functioning in UHR subjects prospectively at 1 year follow up. Results suggest that the association between social amotivation and functioning is generalisable beyond schizophrenia populations to those who are at-risk of developing psychosis. Social amotivation may be an important dimensional clinical construct to be studied across a range of psychiatric conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

  14. [Prediction of the efficiency of endoscopic lung volume reduction by valves in severe emphysema].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocquillon, V; Briault, A; Reymond, E; Arbib, F; Jankowski, A; Ferretti, G; Pison, C

    2016-11-01

    In severe emphysema, endoscopic lung volume reduction with valves is an alternative to surgery with less morbidity and mortality. In 2015, selection of patients who will respond to this technique is based on emphysema heterogeneity, a complete fissure visible on the CT-scan and absence of collateral ventilation between lobes. Our case report highlights that individualized prediction is possible. A 58-year-old woman had severe, disabling pulmonary emphysema. A high resolution thoracic computed tomography scan showed that the emphysema was heterogeneous, predominantly in the upper lobes, integrity of the left greater fissure and no collateral ventilation with the left lower lobe. A valve was inserted in the left upper lobe bronchus. At one year, clinical and functional benefits were significant with complete atelectasis of the treated lobe. The success of endoscopic lung volume reduction with a valve can be predicted, an example of personalized medicine. Copyright © 2016 SPLF. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  15. Fuzzy Regression Prediction and Application Based on Multi-Dimensional Factors of Freight Volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Mengting; Li, Cheng

    2018-01-01

    Based on the reality of the development of air cargo, the multi-dimensional fuzzy regression method is used to determine the influencing factors, and the three most important influencing factors of GDP, total fixed assets investment and regular flight route mileage are determined. The system’s viewpoints and analogy methods, the use of fuzzy numbers and multiple regression methods to predict the civil aviation cargo volume. In comparison with the 13th Five-Year Plan for China’s Civil Aviation Development (2016-2020), it is proved that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of forecasting and reduce the risk of forecasting. It is proved that this model predicts civil aviation freight volume of the feasibility, has a high practical significance and practical operation.

  16. Shame and guilt as shared vulnerability factors: Shame, but not guilt, prospectively predicts both social anxiety and bulimic symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levinson, Cheri A; Byrne, Meghan; Rodebaugh, Thomas L

    2016-08-01

    Social anxiety disorder (SAD) and bulimia nervosa (BN) are highly comorbid. However, little is known about the shared vulnerability factors that prospectively predict both SA and BN symptoms. Two potential factors that have not yet been tested are shame and guilt. In the current study we tested if shame and guilt were shared vulnerability factors for SA and BN symptoms. Women (N=300) completed measures of SA symptoms, BN symptoms, state shame and guilt, and trait negative affect at two time points, two months apart. Utilizing structural equation modeling we tested a cross-sectional and prospective model of SA and BN vulnerability. We found that shame prospectively predicted both SA and BN symptoms. We did not find that guilt prospectively predicted SA or BN symptoms. However, higher levels of both BN and SA symptoms predicted increased guilt over time. We found support for shame as a shared prospective vulnerability factor between BN and SA symptoms. Interventions that focus on decreasing shame could potentially alleviate symptoms of BN and SA in one protocol. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk for affective disorders is associated with greater prefrontal gray matter volumes: A prospective longitudinal study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Macoveanu, Julian; Baaré, William; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard

    2017-01-01

    transmission. Methods: We used voxel based morphometry to investigate changes in regional GM brain volume, over a seven-year period, in 37 initially healthy individuals having a mono- or di-zygotic twin diagnosed with major depression or bipolar disorder (high-risk group; mean age 41.6 yrs.) as compared to 36...... anterior cingulate, inferior frontal gyrus and temporoparietal regions as compared to low-risk twins. Further, individuals who developed an affective disorder at follow-up (n=12), had relatively the largest GM volumes, both at baseline and follow-up, in the right dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and right...

  18. Cervical Vertebral Body's Volume as a New Parameter for Predicting the Skeletal Maturation Stages

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Youn-Kyung; Kim, Jinmi; Yamaguchi, Tetsutaro; Maki, Koutaro; Ko, Ching-Chang; Kim, Yong-Il

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the correlation between the volumetric parameters derived from the images of the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae by using cone beam computed tomography with skeletal maturation stages and to propose a new formula for predicting skeletal maturation by using regression analysis. We obtained the estimation of skeletal maturation levels from hand-wrist radiographs and volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae bodies ...

  19. Long-term results of preventive embolization of renal angiomyolipomas: evaluation of predictive factors of volume decrease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hocquelet, A.; Cornelis, F.; Le Bras, Y.; Meyer, M.; Tricaud, E.; Lasserre, A.S.; Grenier, N. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Urology and Vascular Imaging, Bordeaux (France); Ferriere, J.M.; Robert, G. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Urology Service, Bordeaux (France)

    2014-08-15

    To evaluate the efficacy of selective arterial embolization (SAE) of angiomyolipomas based on the percentage volume reduction after embolization and to identify predictive factors of volume decrease. Patients receiving prophylactic SAE of renal angiomyolipomas were included retrospectively over 3 years. The volume change after SAE and haemorrhagic or surgical events were recorded. Initial tumour volume, percentage tumour fat content, mean tumour density, embolic agent used, number of angiomyolipomas and tuberous sclerosis disease were evaluated as predictive factors of volume decrease. A total of 19 patients with 39 angiomyolipomas were included with median follow-up of 28 months (interquartile range 21-37 months). All treatments were technically successful (92 % primary and 8 % secondary). No distal bleeding or any increase in size or surgical nephrectomy after SAE was recorded. Mean volume reduction was 72 % (±24 %). Volumes before SAE (R{sup 2} = 0.276; p = 0.001), percentage fat content (R{sup 2} = 0.612; p < 0.0001) and mean angiomyolipoma density (R{sup 2} = 0.536; p < 0.0001) were identified as predictive factors of volume decrease. In multivariate regression, only percentage fat content influenced volume decreases. SAE is an efficient treatment for angiomyolipoma devascularisation and volume reduction. A significant reduction of volume is modulated by the initial volume and tissue composition of the tumour. (orig.)

  20. European Registry of Carotid Artery Stenting: results from a prospective registry of eight high volume EUROPEAN institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stabile, Eugenio; Garg, Pallav; Cremonesi, Alberto; Bosiers, Marc; Reimers, Bernhard; Setacci, Carlo; Cao, Piergiorgio; Schmidt, Andrej; Sievert, Horst; Peeters, Patrick; Nikas, Dimitry; Werner, Martin; de Donato, Gianmarco; Parlani, Giambattista; Castriota, Fausto; Hornung, Marius; Mauri, Laura; Rubino, Paolo

    2012-08-01

    Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is the standard revascularization therapy to prevent stroke in patients with carotid artery disease. Carotid artery stenting (CAS) could be considered a potential alternative in patients at high surgical risk. Recent clinical trials have challenged this concept due a relatively high incidence of post-CAS adverse events, which occurred in low volume centers. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes associated with neuroprotected CAS in selected high volume centers. From January 2007 to December 2007, 1,611 patients underwent neuroprotected CAS in eight European Centers. For each patients, clinical, procedural, and one month follow-up data from all patients have been collected. An independent clinical events committee adjudicated the events. Overall in hospital death was 0.06% (one patient), whereas in-hospital stroke was 0.49% (eight patients). Between hospital discharge and 30 days three additional patients died (0.18%) and 10 patients experienced a stroke (0.67%). Overall 30 days mortality was 0.24% (four patients) and stroke incidence 1.12% (18 patients). The 30 day stroke/death rate was 1.36%. CAS is a reasonable alternative to CEA to treat carotid artery atherosclerosis in well-experienced high volume centers. These data suggest that future prospective trials comparing CAS and CEA outcomes should include only centers highly experienced in both treatment modalities. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Prospective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, H.N. Jr.

    1984-01-01

    All living systems are characterized by an S-shaped growth curve, representing a lag phase, a phase of exponential growth and a plateau. Nuclear medicine is no exception. In one sense, medical imaging modalities, such as plain film and contrast studies, computerized tomography (CT), ultrasound, digital subtraction angiography, conventional nuclear imaging, and PET, are competitive. They compete for space, funds, people, enthusiasm, and interest. For example, in the 1970s the use of radionuclide brain scans dropped sharply in hospitals when CT became available; ultrasound and nuclear medicine studies of the biliary system led to a significant decrease in the use of oral cholecystograpy and intravenous cholangiography. Some predict that nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and digital radiography may have a significant impact on CT scanning by 1990, because current NMR images are comparable in anatomic resolution to CT without bone artifacts and, especially important in the 1980s, without ionizing radiation. In the face of all this competition, the continued growth and well-being of the field of nuclear medicine will depend on the degree to which the field can adapt itself to the changing circumstances of medical practice and research in the 1980s. The forces that will shape the future of nuclear medicine will continue to come from both within and outside the field

  2. Predicting emergency department volume using forecasting methods to create a "surge response" for noncrisis events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chase, Valerie J; Cohn, Amy E M; Peterson, Timothy A; Lavieri, Mariel S

    2012-05-01

    This study investigated whether emergency department (ED) variables could be used in mathematical models to predict a future surge in ED volume based on recent levels of use of physician capacity. The models may be used to guide decisions related to on-call staffing in non-crisis-related surges of patient volume. A retrospective analysis was conducted using information spanning July 2009 through June 2010 from a large urban teaching hospital with a Level I trauma center. A comparison of significance was used to assess the impact of multiple patient-specific variables on the state of the ED. Physician capacity was modeled based on historical physician treatment capacity and productivity. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to determine the probability that the available physician capacity would be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive in the next time period. The prediction horizons used were 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, 4 hours, 8 hours, and 12 hours. Five consecutive months of patient data from July 2010 through November 2010, similar to the data used to generate the models, was used to validate the models. Positive predictive values, Type I and Type II errors, and real-time accuracy in predicting noncrisis surge events were used to evaluate the forecast accuracy of the models. The ratio of new patients requiring treatment over total physician capacity (termed the care utilization ratio [CUR]) was deemed a robust predictor of the state of the ED (with a CUR greater than 1 indicating that the physician capacity would not be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive). Prediction intervals of 30 minutes, 8 hours, and 12 hours performed best of all models analyzed, with deviances of 1.000, 0.951, and 0.864, respectively. A 95% significance was used to validate the models against the July 2010 through November 2010 data set. Positive predictive values ranged from 0.738 to 0.872, true positives ranged from 74% to 94%, and

  3. Pin on flat wear volume prediction of UHMWPE against cp Ti for orthopedic applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handoko, Suyitno, Dharmastiti, Rini; Magetsari, Rahadyan

    2018-04-01

    Tribological assessment of orthopedic biomaterials requires a lot of testing time. Researchers must test the biomaterials in millions of cycles at low frequency (1 Hz) to mimic the in vivo conditions. It is a problem because product designs and developments could not wait longer for wear data to predict the lifetime of their products. The problem can be solved with the use of computation techniques to model the wear phenomena and provide predicted data. The aim of this research is to predict the wear volume of the commonly used ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) sliding against commercially pure titanium (cp Ti) in the unidirectional pin on flat tests. The 9 mm diameter UHMWPE pin and cp Ti plate contact mechanics were modeled using Abaqus. Contact pressure was set at 3 MPa. Outputs of the computations (contact pressure and contact area) were used to calculate the wear volume with Archard law. A custom Python script was made to automate the process. The results were then compared with experimental data for validations. The predicted data were in a good trend with numerical errors from 0.3% up to 26%.

  4. Volume fraction prediction in biphasic flow using nuclear technique and artificial neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salgado, Cesar M.; Brandao, Luis E.B., E-mail: otero@ien.gov.br, E-mail: brandao@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    The volume fraction is one of the most important parameters used to characterize air-liquid two-phase flows. It is a physical value to determine other parameters, such as the phase's densities and to determine the flow rate of each phase. These parameters are important to predict the flow pattern and to determine a mathematical model for the system. To study, for example, heat transfer and pressure drop. This work presents a methodology for volume fractions prediction in water-gas stratified flow regime using the nuclear technique and artificial intelligence. The volume fractions calculate in biphasic flow systems is complex and the analysis by means of analytical equations becomes very difficult. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means of the artificial neural network. The detection system uses appropriate broad beam geometry, comprised of a ({sup 137}Cs) energy gamma-ray source and a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector in order measure transmitted beam whose the counts rates are influenced by the phases composition. These distributions are directly used by the network without any parameterization of the measured signal. The ideal and static theoretical models for stratified regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the network. The detector also was modeled with this code and the results were compared to experimental photopeak efficiency measurements of radiation sources. The proposed network could obtain with satisfactory prediction of the volume fraction in water-gas system, demonstrating to be a promising approach for this purpose. (author)

  5. Volume fraction prediction in biphasic flow using nuclear technique and artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salgado, Cesar M.; Brandao, Luis E.B.

    2015-01-01

    The volume fraction is one of the most important parameters used to characterize air-liquid two-phase flows. It is a physical value to determine other parameters, such as the phase's densities and to determine the flow rate of each phase. These parameters are important to predict the flow pattern and to determine a mathematical model for the system. To study, for example, heat transfer and pressure drop. This work presents a methodology for volume fractions prediction in water-gas stratified flow regime using the nuclear technique and artificial intelligence. The volume fractions calculate in biphasic flow systems is complex and the analysis by means of analytical equations becomes very difficult. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means of the artificial neural network. The detection system uses appropriate broad beam geometry, comprised of a ( 137 Cs) energy gamma-ray source and a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector in order measure transmitted beam whose the counts rates are influenced by the phases composition. These distributions are directly used by the network without any parameterization of the measured signal. The ideal and static theoretical models for stratified regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the network. The detector also was modeled with this code and the results were compared to experimental photopeak efficiency measurements of radiation sources. The proposed network could obtain with satisfactory prediction of the volume fraction in water-gas system, demonstrating to be a promising approach for this purpose. (author)

  6. Hunger and thirst numeric rating scales are not valid estimates for gastric content volumes: a prospective investigation in healthy children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehrer, Sabin; Hanke, Ursula; Klaghofer, Richard; Fruehauf, Melanie; Weiss, Markus; Schmitz, Achim

    2014-03-01

    A rating scale for thirst and hunger was evaluated as a noninvasive, simple and commonly available tool to estimate preanesthetic gastric volume, a surrogate parameter for the risk of perioperative pulmonary aspiration, in healthy volunteer school age children. Numeric scales with scores from 0 to 10 combined with smileys to rate thirst and hunger were analyzed and compared with residual gastric volumes as measured by magnetic resonance imaging and fasting times in three settings: before and for 2 h after drinking clear fluid (group A, 7 ml/kg), before and for 4 vs 6 h after a light breakfast followed by clear fluid (7 ml/kg) after 2 vs 4 h (crossover, group B), and before and for 1 h after drinking clear fluid (crossover, group C, 7 vs 3 ml/kg). In 30 children aged 6.4-12.8 (median 9.8) years, participating on 1-5 (median two) study days, 496 sets of scores and gastric volumes were determined. Large inter- and intra-individual variations were seen at baseline and in response to fluid and food intake. Significant correlations were found between hunger and thirst ratings in all groups, with children generally being more hungry than thirsty. Correlations between scores and duration of fasting or gastric residual volumes were poor to moderate. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that thirst and hunger rating scales cannot predict gastric content. Hunger and thirst scores vary considerably inter- and intra-individually and cannot predict gastric volume, nor do they correlate with fasting times in school age children. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Preoperative predictive model for acute kidney injury after elective cardiac surgery: a prospective multicentre cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callejas, Raquel; Panadero, Alfredo; Vives, Marc; Duque, Paula; Echarri, Gemma; Monedero, Pablo

    2018-05-11

    Predictive models of CS-AKI include emergency surgery and patients with haemodynamic instability. Our objective was to evaluate the performance of validated predictive models (Thakar and Demirjian) in elective cardiac surgery and to propose a better score in the case of poor performance. A prospective, multicentre, observational study was designed. Data were collected from 942 patients undergoing cardiac surgery, after excluding emergency surgery and patients with an intraaortic balloon pump. The main outcome measure was CS-AKI defined by the composite of requiring dialysis or doubling baseline creatinine values. Both models showed poor discrimination in elective surgery (Thakar's model, AUROC = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.50-0.64 and Demirjian's model, AUROC= 0.64, 95% CI = 0.58-0.71). We generated a new model whose significant independent predictors were: anaemia, age, hypertension, obesity, congestive heart failure, previous cardiac surgery and type of surgery. It classifies patients with scores 0-3 as low risk ( 8 as high risk (>30%) of developing CS-AKI with a statistically significant correlation (p <0.001). Our model reflects acceptable discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.66-0.78) which is significantly better than Thakar and Demirjian's models (p<0.01). We developed a new simple predictive model of CS-AKI in elective surgery based on available preoperative information. Our new model is easy to calculate and can be an effective tool for communicating risk to patients and guiding decision-making in the perioperative period. The study requires external validation.

  8. Symptom clusters predict mortality among dialysis patients in Norway: a prospective observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amro, Amin; Waldum, Bård; von der Lippe, Nanna; Brekke, Fredrik Barth; Dammen, Toril; Miaskowski, Christine; Os, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease on dialysis have reduced survival rates compared with the general population. Symptoms are frequent in dialysis patients, and a symptom cluster is defined as two or more related co-occurring symptoms. The aim of this study was to explore the associations between symptom clusters and mortality in dialysis patients. In a prospective observational cohort study of dialysis patients (n = 301), Kidney Disease and Quality of Life Short Form and Beck Depression Inventory questionnaires were administered. To generate symptom clusters, principal component analysis with varimax rotation was used on 11 kidney-specific self-reported physical symptoms. A Beck Depression Inventory score of 16 or greater was defined as clinically significant depressive symptoms. Physical and mental component summary scores were generated from Short Form-36. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used for the survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank statistics were applied to compare survival rates between the groups. Three different symptom clusters were identified; one included loading of several uremic symptoms. In multivariate analyses and after adjustment for health-related quality of life and depressive symptoms, the worst perceived quartile of the "uremic" symptom cluster independently predicted all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.47, 95% CI 1.44-4.22, P = 0.001) compared with the other quartiles during a follow-up period that ranged from four to 52 months. The two other symptom clusters ("neuromuscular" and "skin") or the individual symptoms did not predict mortality. Clustering of uremic symptoms predicted mortality. Assessing co-occurring symptoms rather than single symptoms may help to identify dialysis patients at high risk for mortality. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Birth weight and neonatal adiposity prediction using fractional limb volume obtained with 3D ultrasound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Clare; O'Higgins, Amy; Doolan, Anne; Segurado, Ricardo; Stuart, Bernard; Turner, Michael J; Kennelly, Máireád M

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this investigation was to study fetal thigh volume throughout gestation and explore its correlation with birth weight and neonatal body composition. This novel technique may improve birth weight prediction and lead to improved detection rates for fetal growth restriction. Fractional thigh volume (TVol) using 3D ultrasound, fetal biometry and soft tissue thickness were studied longitudinally in 42 mother-infant pairs. The percentages of neonatal body fat, fat mass and fat-free mass were determined using air displacement plethysmography. Correlation and linear regression analyses were performed. Linear regression analysis showed an association between TVol and birth weight. TVol at 33 weeks was also associated with neonatal fat-free mass. There was no correlation between TVol and neonatal fat mass. Abdominal circumference, estimated fetal weight (EFW) and EFW centile showed consistent correlations with birth weight. Thigh volume demonstrated an additional independent contribution to birth weight prediction when added to the EFW centile from the 38-week scan (p = 0.03). Fractional TVol performed at 33 weeks gestation is correlated with birth weight and neonatal lean body mass. This screening test may highlight those at risk of fetal growth restriction or macrosomia.

  10. Prediction of infarct volume in patients undergoing reperfusion therapy by Tc-99m antimyosin SPECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasuda, T.; Leinbach, R.C.; Khaw, B.A.; Gold, H.K.; Strauss, H.W.

    1984-01-01

    The predictability of infarct volume by Tc-99m antimyosin SPECT was evaluated within 24 hours of chest pain and this was compared to the length of akinesis (AK) from the pre-discharge left ventriculogram (LVgram). Ten patients (pts) with acute myocardial infarction who underwent streptokinase thrombolytic therapy (success 8, failure 2) were subjects of this investigation. None had previous infarction. Average reperfusion time was within 4.5 hours and 20mCi of Tc-99m antimyosin was given intravenously within 8 hours after chest pain; SPECT imaging was performed within 18 hours after injection. Infarct volume was calculated from SPECT and expressed as grams of myocardial infarction (GMI). Ten days later, a 30 0 RAO contrast LVgram was recorded and the length of AK (corrected for magnification) was measured along the LV border at the end-diastolic phase and expressed as cm of AK. GMI and AK were measured independently without knowledge of each other. Results are given. The data demonstrate a good correlation of GMI and AK. Infarct volume can be measured by antimyosin SPECT within 24 hours of chest pain and predict residual LV dysfunction in pts undergoing reperfusion therapy

  11. Salinity independent volume fraction prediction in water-gas-oil multiphase flows using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salgado, C.M.; Pereira, Claudio M.N.A.; Brandao, Luis E.B., E-mail: otero@ien.gov.b, E-mail: cmnap@ien.gov.b, E-mail: brandao@ien.gov.b [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (DIRA/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Div. de Radiofarmacos

    2011-07-01

    This work investigates the response of a volume fraction prediction system for water-gas-oil multiphase flows considering variations on water salinity. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The detection system uses appropriate fan beam geometry, comprised of a dual-energy gamma-ray source and two NaI(Tl) detectors adequately positioned outside the pipe in order measure transmitted and scattered beams. An ideal and static theoretical model for annular flow regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the ANN. More than 500 simulations have been done, in which water salinity have been ranged from 0 to 16% in order to cover a most practical situations. Validation tests have included values of volume fractions and water salinity different from those used in ANN training phase. The results presented here show that the proposed approach may be successfully applied to material volume fraction prediction on watergas- oil multiphase flows considering practical (real) levels of variations in water salinity. (author)

  12. Salinity independent volume fraction prediction in water-gas-oil multiphase flows using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salgado, C.M.; Pereira, Claudio M.N.A.; Brandao, Luis E.B.

    2011-01-01

    This work investigates the response of a volume fraction prediction system for water-gas-oil multiphase flows considering variations on water salinity. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The detection system uses appropriate fan beam geometry, comprised of a dual-energy gamma-ray source and two NaI(Tl) detectors adequately positioned outside the pipe in order measure transmitted and scattered beams. An ideal and static theoretical model for annular flow regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the ANN. More than 500 simulations have been done, in which water salinity have been ranged from 0 to 16% in order to cover a most practical situations. Validation tests have included values of volume fractions and water salinity different from those used in ANN training phase. The results presented here show that the proposed approach may be successfully applied to material volume fraction prediction on watergas- oil multiphase flows considering practical (real) levels of variations in water salinity. (author)

  13. Prediction of lateral surface, volume and sphericity of pomegranate using MLP artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Rohani

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Fast and accurate determination of geometrical properties of agricultural products has many applications in agricultural operations like planting, cultivating, harvesting and post-harvesting. Calculations related to storing, shipping and storage-coating materials as well as peeling time and surface-microbial concentrations are some applications of estimating product volume and surface area. Sphericity is also a parameter by which the shape differences between fruits, vegetables, grains and seeds can be quantified. This parameter is important in grading systems and inspecting rolling capability of agricultural products. Bayram presented a new dimensional method and equation to calculate the sphericity of certain shapesand some granular food materials (Bayram, 2005. Kumar and Mathew proposed atheoretically soundmethod for estimating the surface area of ellipsoidal food materials (Kumar and Mathew, 2003. Clayton et al. used non-linear regression models for calculation of apple surface area using the fruit mass or volume (Clayton et al., 1995. Humeida and Hobani predicted surface area and volume of pomegranates based on the weight and geometrical diametermean (Humeida and Hobani, 1993. Wang and Nguang designeda low cost sensor system to automatically compute the volume and surface area of axi-symmetricagricultural products such as eggs, lemons, limes and tamarillos (Wang and Nguang, 2007. The main objective of this study was to investigate the potential of Artificial Neural Network (ANN technique as an alternative method to predict the volume, surface area and sphericity of pomegranates. Materials and methods: The water displacement method (WDM was used for measuring the actual volume of pomegranates. Also, the sphericity and surface area are computed by using analytical methods. In this study, the neural MLP models were designed based upon the three nominal diameters of pomegranatesas variable inputs, while the output model consisted

  14. Critical combinations of radiation dose and volume predict intelligence quotient and academic achievement scores after craniospinal irradiation in children with medulloblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, Thomas E; Schreiber, Jane E; Wu, Shengjie; Lukose, Renin; Xiong, Xiaoping; Gajjar, Amar

    2014-11-01

    To prospectively follow children treated with craniospinal irradiation to determine critical combinations of radiation dose and volume that would predict for cognitive effects. Between 1996 and 2003, 58 patients (median age 8.14 years, range 3.99-20.11 years) with medulloblastoma received risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation followed by dose-intense chemotherapy and were followed longitudinally with multiple cognitive evaluations (through 5 years after treatment) that included intelligence quotient (estimated intelligence quotient, full-scale, verbal, and performance) and academic achievement (math, reading, spelling) tests. Craniospinal irradiation consisted of 23.4 Gy for average-risk patients (nonmetastatic) and 36-39.6 Gy for high-risk patients (metastatic or residual disease >1.5 cm(2)). The primary site was treated using conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy using a 2-cm clinical target volume margin. The effect of clinical variables and radiation dose to different brain volumes were modeled to estimate cognitive scores after treatment. A decline with time for all test scores was observed for the entire cohort. Sex, race, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt status had a significant impact on baseline scores. Age and mean radiation dose to specific brain volumes, including the temporal lobes and hippocampi, had a significant impact on longitudinal scores. Dichotomized dose distributions at 25 Gy, 35 Gy, 45 Gy, and 55 Gy were modeled to show the impact of the high-dose volume on longitudinal test scores. The 50% risk of a below-normal cognitive test score was calculated according to mean dose and dose intervals between 25 Gy and 55 Gy at 10-Gy increments according to brain volume and age. The ability to predict cognitive outcomes in children with medulloblastoma using dose-effects models for different brain subvolumes will improve treatment planning, guide intervention, and help estimate the value of newer methods of irradiation. Copyright © 2014

  15. The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing: a prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Oostrom, Iris; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J.; Bröcker-Vriends, Annette H. J. T.; van Asperen, Christi J.; Sijmons, Rolf H.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Gool, Arthur R.; Klijn, Jan G. M.; Tibben, Aad

    2007-01-01

    This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related

  16. The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing: a prospective study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oostrom, I.I.H. van; Meijers-Heijboer, H.; Duivenvoorden, H.J.; Brocker-Vriends, A.H.; Asperen, C.J. van; Sijmons, R.H.; Seynaeve, C.; Gool, A.R. van; Klijn, J.G.M.; Tibben, A.

    2007-01-01

    This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related

  17. The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing : a prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Oostrom, Iris; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J.; Broecker-Vriends, Annette H. J. T.; van Asperen, Christi J.; Sijmons, Rolf H.; Seynaeve, Caroline; Van Gool, Arthur R.; Klijn, Jan G. M.; Tibben, Aad

    2007-01-01

    This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related

  18. Rib fractures predict incident limb fractures: results from the European prospective osteoporosis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, A A; Silman, A J; Reeve, J; Kaptoge, S; O'Neill, T W

    2006-01-01

    Population studies suggest that rib fractures are associated with a reduction in bone mass. While much is known about the predictive risk of hip, spine and distal forearm fracture on the risk of future fracture, little is known about the impact of rib fracture. The aim of this study was to determine whether a recalled history of rib fracture was associated with an increased risk of future limb fracture. Men and women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 31 European centres for participation in a screening survey of osteoporosis (European Prospective Osteoporosis Study). Subjects were invited to complete an interviewer-administered questionnaire that included questions about previous fractures including rib fracture, the age of their first fracture and also the level of trauma. Lateral spine radiographs were performed and the presence of vertebral deformity was determined morphometrically. Following the baseline survey, subjects were followed prospectively by annual postal questionnaire to determine the occurrence of clinical fractures. The subjects included 6,344 men, with a mean age of 64.2 years, and 6,788 women, with a mean age of 63.6 years, who were followed for a median of 3 years (range 0.4-5.9 years), of whom 135 men (2.3%) and 101 women (1.6%) reported a previous low trauma rib fracture. In total, 138 men and 391 women sustained a limb fracture during follow-up. In women, after age adjustment, those with a recalled history of low trauma rib fracture had an increased risk of sustaining 'any' limb fracture [relative hazard (RH)=2.3; 95% CI 1.3, 4.0]. When stratified by fracture type the predictive risk was more marked for hip (RH=7.7; 95% CI 2.3, 25.9) and humerus fracture (RH=4.5; 95% CI 1.4, 14.6) than other sites (RH=1.6; 95% CI 0.6, 4.3). Additional adjustment for prevalent vertebral deformity and previous (non-rib) low trauma fractures at other sites slightly reduced the strength of the association between rib fracture and

  19. Baseline Gray- and White Matter Volume Predict Successful Weight Loss in the Elderly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhtari, Fatemeh; Paolini, Brielle M.; Burdette, Jonathan H.; Marsh, Anthony P.; Rejeski, W. Jack; Laurienti, Paul J.

    2016-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study is to investigate if structural brain phenotypes can be used to predict weight loss success following behavioral interventions in older adults that are overweight or obese and have cardiometabolic dysfunction. Methods A support vector machine (SVM) with a repeated random subsampling validation approach was used to classify participants into the upper and lower halves of the weight loss distribution following 18 months of a weight loss intervention. Predictions were based on baseline brain gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) volume from 52 individuals that completed the intervention and a magnetic resonance imaging session. Results The SVM resulted in an average classification accuracy of 72.62 % based on GM and WM volume. A receiver operating characteristic analysis indicated that classification performance was robust based on an area under the curve of 0.82. Conclusions Our findings suggest that baseline brain structure is able to predict weight loss success following 18 months of treatment. The identification of brain structure as a predictor of successful weight loss is an innovative approach to identifying phenotypes for responsiveness to intensive lifestyle interventions. This phenotype could prove useful in future research focusing on the tailoring of treatment for weight loss. PMID:27804273

  20. Predicted costs of environmental controls for a commercial oil shale industry. Volume 1. An engineering analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nevens, T.D.; Culbertson, W.J. Jr.; Wallace, J.R.; Taylor, G.C.; Jovanovich, A.P.; Prien, C.H.; Hicks, R.E.; Probstein, R.F.; Domahidy, G.

    1979-07-01

    The pollution control costs for a commercial oil shale industry were determined in a joint effort by Denver Research Institute, Water Purification Associates of Cambridge, and Stone and Webster Engineering of Boston and Denver. Four commercial oil shale processes were considered. The results in terms of cost per barrel of syncrude oil are predicted to be as follows: Paraho Process, $0.67 to $1.01; TOSCO II Process, $1.43 to $1.91; MIS Process, $2.02 to $3.03; and MIS/Lurgi-Ruhrgas Process, $1.68 to $2.43. Alternative pollution control equipment and integrated pollution control strategies were considered and optimal systems selected for each full-scale plant. A detailed inventory of equipment (along with the rationale for selection), a detailed description of control strategies, itemized costs and predicted emission levels are presented for each process. Capital and operating cost data are converted to a cost per barrel basis using detailed economic evaluation procedures. Ranges of cost are determined using a subjective self-assessment of uncertainty approach. An accepted methodology for probability encoding was used, and cost ranges are presented as subjective probability distributions. Volume I presents the detailed engineering results. Volume II presents the detailed analysis of uncertainty in the predicted costs.

  1. Serial assessment of pulmonary lesion volume by computed tomography allows survival prediction in invasive pulmonary aspergillosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehreschild, J.J.; Vehreschild, M.J.G.T. [University Hospital of Cologne, Department I of Internal Medicine, Cologne (Germany); German Centre for Infection Research, Partner Site Bonn-Cologne, Cologne (Germany); Heussel, C.P. [Chest Clinic at University Hospital Heidelberg, Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology with Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); University Hospital of Heidelberg, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Heidelberg (Germany); Translational Lung Research Center Heidelberg (TLRC), Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Heidelberg (Germany); Groll, A.H. [University Children' s Hospital, Infectious Disease Research Program, Department of Paediatric Haematology/Oncology, Muenster (Germany); Silling, G. [University of Muenster, Department of Medicine A, Haematology/Oncology, Muenster (Germany); Wuerthwein, G. [University Hospital Muenster, Centre for Clinical Trials, ZKS Muenster (Germany); Brecht, M. [Chest Clinic at University Hospital Heidelberg, Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology with Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); Cornely, O.A. [University Hospital of Cologne, Department I of Internal Medicine, Cologne (Germany); University of Cologne, Clinical Trials Center Cologne, ZKS Koeln (BMBF 01KN1106), Cologne (Germany); Center for Integrated Oncology CIO Koeln Bonn, Cologne (Germany); University of Cologne, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), Cologne (Germany)

    2017-08-15

    Serial chest CT is the standard of care to establish treatment success in invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA). Data are lacking how response should be defined. Digital CT images from a clinical trial on treatment of IPA were re-evaluated and compared with available biomarkers. Total volume of pneumonia was added up after manual measurement of each lesion, followed by statistical analysis. One-hundred and ninety CT scans and 309 follow-up datasets from 40 patients were available for analysis. Thirty-one were neutropenic. Baseline galactomannan (OR 4.06, 95%CI: 1.08-15.31) and lesion volume (OR 3.14, 95%CI: 0.73-13.52) were predictive of death. Lesion volume at d7 and trend between d7 and d14 were strong predictors of death (OR 20.01, 95%CI: 1.42-282.00 and OR 15.97, 95%CI: 1.62-157.32) and treatment being rated as unsuccessful (OR 4.75, 95%CI: 0.94-24.05 and OR 40.69, 95%CI: 2.55-649.03), which was confirmed by a Cox proportional hazards model using time-dependent covariates. Any increase in CT lesion volume between day 7 and day 14 was a sensitive marker of a lethal outcome (>50%), supporting a CT rescan each one and 2 weeks after initial detection of IPA. The predictive value exceeded all other biomarkers. Further CT follow-up after response at day 14 was of low additional value. (orig.)

  2. Evaluation of the white finger risk prediction model in ISO 5349 suggests need for prospective studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gemne, G; Lundström, R

    1996-05-01

    The risk prediction model for white fingers in Annex A of ISO 5349 is not likely to offer protection from all tools and all work processes. It is also probable that some work place changes it has initiated are either redundant or lack the intended effect. The main reasons for these shortcomings are the following. The often demonstrated disagreement between predicted and observed white fingers occurrence may be related to the fact that the model is based on latency data. This leads to an overestimation, to an unknown extent, of true group risks. A possible healthy worker effect, resulting in underestimation, has not been considered, and uncertainty because of recall bias is connected with using latency as effect variable in a slowly developing disorder like white fingers. The diagnostic criteria for white fingers have varied over the years, causing a possible inclusion of circulatory disturbances other than those induced by vibration. Among insufficiently clarified matters unrelated to vibration are variations in individual susceptibility and other host factors that modify vibration effects, uncertainty concerning daily or total effective exposure, and the fact that variation in work methods and processes as well as ergonomic factors other than vibration tend to make different groups incomparable form the viewpoint of risk of injury. Lack of sufficient data on vibration measurements and employment durations add to the uncertainty, as do variations in tool conditions (grinder wheels, etc) and inherent difficulties in measurement. Finally, the ISO 5349 frequency-weighting curve only relates to acute sensory effects rather than chronic effects on vascular functions like white fingers, and directional difference in sensitivity has not been incorporated in the curve. Data on exposure-response relationships are needed from prospective studies that monitor the dose of exposure to special vibration types and all relevant environmental agents, employ diagnostics with good

  3. A prediction rule for shoulder pain related sick leave: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van der Heijden Geert JMG

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Shoulder pain is common in primary care, and has an unfavourable outcome in many patients. Information about predictors of shoulder pain related sick leave in workers is scarce and inconsistent. The objective was to develop a clinical prediction rule for calculating the risk of shoulder pain related sick leave for individual workers, during the 6 months following first consultation in general practice. Methods A prospective cohort study with 6 months follow-up was conducted among 350 workers with a new episode of shoulder pain. Potential predictors included the results of a physical examination, sociodemographic variables, disease characteristics (duration of symptoms, sick leave in the 2 months prior to consultation, pain intensity, disability, comorbidity, physical activity, physical work load, psychological factors, and the psychosocial work environment. The main outcome measure was sick leave during 6 months following first consultation in general practice. Results Response rate to the follow-up questionnaire at 6 months was 85%. During the 6 months after first consultation 30% (89/298 of the workers reported sick leave. 16% (47 reported 10 days sick leave or more. Sick leave during this period was predicted in a multivariable model by a longer duration of sick leave prior to consultation, more shoulder pain, a perceived cause of strain or overuse during regular activities, and co-existing psychological complaints. The discriminative ability of the prediction model was satisfactory with an area under the curve of 0.70 (95% CI 0.64–0.76. Conclusion Although 30% of all workers with shoulder pain reported sick leave during follow-up, the duration of sick leave was limited to a few days in most workers. We developed a prediction rule and a score chart that can be used by general practitioners and occupational health care providers to calculate the absolute risk of sick leave in individual workers with shoulder pain, which

  4. Radical prostatectomy and positive surgical margins: tumor volume and Gleason score predicts cancer outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Roca, Ricardo L.R. Felts de; Fonseca, Francisco Paula da; Cunha, Isabela Werneck da; Bezerra, Stephania Martins

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: positive surgical margins (PSMs) are common adverse factors to predict the outcome of a patient submitted to radical prostatectomy (PR). However, not all of these men will follow with biochemical (BCR) or clinical (CR) recurrence. Relationship between PSMs with these recurrent events has to be correlated with other clinicopathological findings in order to recognize more aggressive tumors in order to recommend complementary treatment to these selected patients. Materials and methods: we retrospectively reviewed the outcome of 228 patients submitted to open retropubic RP between March 1991 and June 2008, where 161 had and 67 did not have PSMs. Minimum follow-up time was considered 2 years after surgery. BCR was considered when PSA ≥ 0.2 ng/ml. CR was determined when clinical evidence of tumor appeared. Chi-square test was used to correlate clinical and pathologic variables with PSMs. The estimated 5-year risk of BCR and CR in presence of PSMs was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared to log-rank tests. Results: from the total of 228 patients, 161 (71%) had PSMs, while 67 (29%) had negative surgical margins (NSMs). Prostatic circumferential margin was the most common (43.4%) site. Univariate analysis showed statistically significant (p < 0.001) associations between the presence of PSMs and BCR, but not with CR (p = 0.06). Among 161 patients with PSMs, 61 (37.8%) presented BCR, while 100 (62.8%) did not. Predicting progression-free survival for 5 years, BCR was correlated with pathological stage; Gleason score; pre-treatment PSA; tumor volume in specimen; capsular and perineural invasion; presence and number of PSMs. RC correlated only with angiolymphatic invasion and Gleason score. Considering univariate analyses the clinicopathological factors predicting BCR for 5 years, results statistically significant links with prostate weight; pre-treatment PSA; Gleason score; pathological stage; tumor volume; PSMs; capsular and perineural

  5. Radical prostatectomy and positive surgical margins: tumor volume and Gleason score predicts cancer outcome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    La Roca, Ricardo L.R. Felts de, E-mail: Ricardo@delarocaurologia.com.br [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Fonseca, Francisco Paula da, E-mail: fpf@uol.com.br [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Divisao de Urologia. Dept. de Cirurgia Pelvica; Cunha, Isabela Werneck da; Bezerra, Stephania Martins, E-mail: iwerneck@gmail.com, E-mail: stephaniab@gmail.com [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Patologia

    2013-07-01

    Introduction: positive surgical margins (PSMs) are common adverse factors to predict the outcome of a patient submitted to radical prostatectomy (PR). However, not all of these men will follow with biochemical (BCR) or clinical (CR) recurrence. Relationship between PSMs with these recurrent events has to be correlated with other clinicopathological findings in order to recognize more aggressive tumors in order to recommend complementary treatment to these selected patients. Materials and methods: we retrospectively reviewed the outcome of 228 patients submitted to open retropubic RP between March 1991 and June 2008, where 161 had and 67 did not have PSMs. Minimum follow-up time was considered 2 years after surgery. BCR was considered when PSA {>=} 0.2 ng/ml. CR was determined when clinical evidence of tumor appeared. Chi-square test was used to correlate clinical and pathologic variables with PSMs. The estimated 5-year risk of BCR and CR in presence of PSMs was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared to log-rank tests. Results: from the total of 228 patients, 161 (71%) had PSMs, while 67 (29%) had negative surgical margins (NSMs). Prostatic circumferential margin was the most common (43.4%) site. Univariate analysis showed statistically significant (p < 0.001) associations between the presence of PSMs and BCR, but not with CR (p = 0.06). Among 161 patients with PSMs, 61 (37.8%) presented BCR, while 100 (62.8%) did not. Predicting progression-free survival for 5 years, BCR was correlated with pathological stage; Gleason score; pre-treatment PSA; tumor volume in specimen; capsular and perineural invasion; presence and number of PSMs. RC correlated only with angiolymphatic invasion and Gleason score. Considering univariate analyses the clinicopathological factors predicting BCR for 5 years, results statistically significant links with prostate weight; pre-treatment PSA; Gleason score; pathological stage; tumor volume; PSMs; capsular and perineural

  6. Intraoperative ultrasound for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma biological behaviour: Prospective comparison with pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santambrogio, Roberto; Cigala, Claudia; Barabino, Matteo; Maggioni, Marco; Scifo, Giovanna; Bruno, Savino; Bertolini, Emanuela; Opocher, Enrico; Bulfamante, Gaetano

    2018-02-01

    Preoperative prediction of both microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma and histological grade of hepatocellular carcinoma is pivotal to treatment planning and prognostication. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether some intraoperative ultrasound features correlate with both the presence of same histological patterns and differentiation grade of hepatocellular carcinoma on the histological features of the primary resected tumour. All patients with single, small hepatocellular carcinoma that underwent hepatic resection were included in this prospective double-blind study: the intraoperative ultrasound patterns of nodule were registered and compared with similar histological features. A total of 179 patients were enclosed in this study: 97 (54%) patients (34% in HCC ≤2 cm) had a microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma at ultrasound examination, while 82 (46%) patients (41% in HCC ≤2 cm) at histological evaluation. Statistical analysis showed that diameters ≤2 cm, presence of satellites and microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma at ultrasound examination were the variables with the strongest association with the histological findings. In the multivariate analysis, the vascular microinfiltration and infiltrative hepatocellular carcinoma aspect were independent predictors for grading. In patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, the prevalence of microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma is high, even in cases of HCC ≤2 cm. Intraoperative ultrasound findings strongly correlated with histopathological criteria in detecting microinvasive patterns and are useful to predict neoplastic differentiation. The knowledge of these features prior to treatment are highly desired (this can be obtained by an intraoperative ultrasound examination), as they could help in providing optimal management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. The predictive value of ePAQ in the urodynamic diagnoses-A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCooty, Shanteela; Nightingale, Peter; Latthe, Pallavi

    2018-01-01

    To assess whether the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire-Pelvic Floor (ePAQ-PF) had accuracy in predicting the urodynamic diagnoses of Detrusor Overactivity (DO) and/or Urodynamic Stress Incontinence (USI). Tertiary urogynaecology unit linked to an academic university teaching hospital. Consecutive women who presented with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and were booked to have urodynamic studies. Women completed an ePAQ-PF prior to having urodynamics (UDS) by clinicians who were blinded to the ePAQ-PF results while conducting this procedure. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed for predictive accuracy of overactive bladder (OAB) score in DO and of stress urinary incontinence (SUI) score in USI. Prospective cohort study designed to meet the requirements of the standards for reporting of diagnostic accuracy (STARD). 390 women with a mean age of 54.2 (range 21-92) years were recruited. The majority (n = 294; 75%) were White Caucasian and had two children (n = 157; 40.3%). Of them, 67.2% (n = 262) had DO and USI was confirmed in 21.5% (n = 84). The area under the ROC curve for DO was 0.704 (95% confidence interval 0.650-0.759) and for USI it was 0.731 (95% confidence interval 0.652-0.778). The OAB and SUI scores on the ePAQ-PF demonstrated that they are fair predictors in diagnosing DO and USI. As the OAB and SUI score on ePAQ-PF increased so did the likelihood of DO (up to a score of 75) and USI on UDS. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. PREDICT-PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noyce, Alastair J; R'Bibo, Lea; Peress, Luisa; Bestwick, Jonathan P; Adams-Carr, Kerala L; Mencacci, Niccolo E; Hawkes, Christopher H; Masters, Joseph M; Wood, Nicholas; Hardy, John; Giovannoni, Gavin; Lees, Andrew J; Schrag, Anette

    2017-02-01

    A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). To test an online, evidence-based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard-tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD ("intermediate markers"), including smell loss, rapid eye movement-sleep behavior disorder, and finger-tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow-up (all P values < 0.001). Incident PD diagnoses during follow-up were significantly associated with baseline risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. The online PREDICT-PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder

  9. CDOCKER and lambda λ -dynamics for prospective prediction in D3R Grand Challenge 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Xinqiang; Hayes, Ryan L.; Vilseck, Jonah Z.; Charles, Murchtricia K.; Brooks, Charles L.

    2018-01-01

    The opportunity to prospectively predict ligand bound poses and free energies of binding to the Farnesoid X Receptor in the D3R Grand Challenge 2 provided a useful exercise to evaluate CHARMM based docking (CDOCKER) and λ-dynamics methodologies for use in "real-world" applications in computer aided drug design. In addition to measuring their current performance, several recent methodological developments have been analyzed retrospectively to highlight best procedural practices in future applications. For pose prediction with CDOCKER, when the protein structure used for rigid receptor docking was close to the crystallographic holo structure, reliable poses were obtained. Benzimidazoles, with a known holo receptor structure, were successfully docked with an average RMSD of 0.97 Å. Other non-benzimidazole ligands displayed less accuracy largely because the receptor structures we chose for docking were too different from the experimental holo structures. However, retrospective analysis has shown that when these ligands were re-docked into their holo structures, the average RMSD dropped to 1.18 Å for all ligands. When sulfonamides and spiros were docked with the apo structure, which agrees more with their holo structure than the structures we chose, five out of six ligands were correctly docked. These docking results emphasize the need for flexible receptor docking approaches. For λ-dynamics techniques, including multisite λ-dynamics (MSλD), reasonable agreement with experiment was observed for the 33 ligands investigated; root mean square errors of 2.08 and 1.67 kcal/mol were obtained for free energy sets 1 and 2, respectively. Retrospectively, soft-core potentials, adaptive landscape flattening, and biasing potential replica exchange (BP-REX) algorithms were critical to model large substituent perturbations with sufficient precision and within restrictive timeframes, such as was required with participation in Grand Challenge 2. These developments, their

  10. Ventromedial prefrontal volume predicts understanding of others and social network size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Penelope A; Rezaie, Roozbeh; Brown, Rachel; Roberts, Neil; Dunbar, R I M

    2011-08-15

    Cognitive abilities such as Theory of Mind (ToM), and more generally mentalizing competences, are central to human sociality. Neuroimaging has associated these abilities with specific brain regions including temporo-parietal junction, superior temporal sulcus, frontal pole, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Previous studies have shown both that mentalizing competence, indexed as the ability to correctly understand others' belief states, is associated with social network size and that social group size is correlated with frontal lobe volume across primate species (the social brain hypothesis). Given this, we predicted that both mentalizing competences and the number of social relationships a person can maintain simultaneously will be a function of gray matter volume in these regions associated with conventional Theory of Mind. We used voxel-based morphometry of Magnetic Resonance Images (MRIs) to test this hypothesis in humans. Specifically, we regressed individuals' mentalizing competences and social network sizes against gray matter volume. This revealed that gray matter volume in bilateral posterior frontal pole and left temporoparietal junction and superior temporal sucus varies parametrically with mentalizing competence. Furthermore, gray matter volume in the medial orbitofrontal cortex and the ventral portion of medial frontal gyrus, varied parametrically with both mentalizing competence and social network size, demonstrating a shared neural basis for these very different facets of sociality. These findings provide the first fine-grained anatomical support for the social brain hypothesis. As such, they have important implications for our understanding of the constraints limiting social cognition and social network size in humans, as well as for our understanding of how such abilities evolved across primates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Predictive and associated factors of psychiatric disorders after traumatic brain injury: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Kate Rachel; Ponsford, Jennie Louise; Johnston, Lisa; Schönberger, Michael

    2011-07-01

    Psychiatric disorders are common and often debilitating following traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, there is little consensus within the literature regarding the risk factors for post-injury psychiatric disorders. A 1-year prospective study was conducted to examine which pre-injury, injury-related, and concurrent factors were associated with experiencing a psychiatric disorder, diagnosed using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I Disorders, at 1 year post-injury. Participants were 122 adults with TBI and 88 proxy informants. Psychiatric disorders were common both pre-injury (54.1%) and at 12 months post-injury (45.9%). Results of regression analyses indicated individuals without a pre-injury psychiatric disorder or psychiatric symptomatology in the acute post-injury period were less likely to have a psychiatric disorder at 12 months post-injury. These findings confirm the importance of pre-injury history for the prediction of post-injury psychiatric disorders. Limb injury also emerged as a useful early indicator of later psychiatric disorder. Post-injury psychiatric disorders were associated with concurrent unemployment, pain, poor quality of life, and use of unproductive coping skills. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed.

  12. Effectiveness of an i-PTH Measurement in Predicting Post Thyroidectomy Hypocalcemia: Prospective Controlled Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jin Pyeong; Park, Jung Je; Son, Hee Young; Kim, Rock Bum; Kim, Ho Youp

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Hypocalcemia is the most common complication after total thyroidectomy. The purpose of this study was to determine whether measurement of intact parathyroid hormone (i-PTH) level in thyroidectomy patients could predict hypocalcemia. Materials and Methods We performed a prospective study of patients undergoing total thyroidectomy. Serum concentration of i-PTH, total calcium (Ca), ionized calcium (Ca2+), phosphate (P), magnesium (Mg), and albumin were measured preoperatively and at 0 hour, 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours, 48 hours, and 72 hours postoperatively. Results 108 patients were recruited to the study. A total of 50 patients (46%) experienced hypocalcemia. The serum i-PTH concentration was linearly related to the time of measurement, while concentrations of P, Mg, albumin, Ca, and Ca2+ were not. We compared odds ratios, and found that the concentration of i-PTH at 6 hours post operation was the most closely related to the occurrence of hypocalcemic symptom. On ROC analysis using i-PTH level at 6 hours, an i-PTH level of 10.6 mg/dL was found to maximize both sensitivity and specificity at the same time point. Conclusion We found that i-PTH was a predictor of hypocalcemia, and that the earliest predictor of hypocalcemic symptoms was an i-PTH concentration lower than 10.6 mg/dL obtained 6 hours after total thyroidectomy. PMID:23549808

  13. The interaction between self-regulation and motivation prospectively predicting problem behavior in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Jessica D; Colder, Craig R; Trucco, Elisa M; Speidel, Carolyn; Hawk, Larry W; Lengua, Liliana J; Das Eiden, Rina; Wieczorek, William

    2013-01-01

    A large literature suggests associations between self-regulation and motivation and adolescent problem behavior; however, this research has mostly pitted these constructs against one another or tested them in isolation. Following recent neural-systems based theories (e.g., Ernst & Fudge, 2009 ), the present study investigated the interactions between self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation prospectively predicting delinquency and depressive symptoms in early adolescence. The community sample included 387 adolescents aged 11 to 13 years old (55% female; 17% minority). Laboratory tasks were used to assess self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation, and adolescent self-reports were used to measure depressive symptoms and delinquency. Analyses suggested that low levels of approach motivation were associated with high levels of depressive symptoms, but only at high levels of self-regulation (p = .01). High levels of approach were associated with high levels of rule breaking, but only at low levels of self-regulation (p theories that posit integration of motivational and self-regulatory individual differences via moderational models to understand adolescent problem behavior.

  14. Sleep disturbances predict prospective declines in resident physicians’ psychological well-being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice A. Min

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Medical residency can be a time of increased psychological stress and sleep disturbance. We examine the prospective associations between self-reported sleep quality and resident wellness across a single training year. Methods: Sixty-nine (N=69 resident physicians completed the Brief Resident Wellness Profile (M=17.66, standard deviation [SD]=3.45, range: 0–17 and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (M=6.22, SD=2.86, range: 12–25 at multiple occasions in a single training year. We examined the 1-month lagged effect of sleep disturbances on residents’ self-reported wellness. Results: Accounting for residents’ overall level of sleep disturbance across the entire study period, both the concurrent (within-person within-occasion effect of sleep disturbance (B=−0.20, standard error [SE]=0.06, p=0.003, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.33, −0.07 and the lagged within-person effect of resident sleep disturbance (B=−0.15, SE=0.07, p=0.037, 95% CI: −0.29, −0.009 were significant predictors of decreased resident wellness. Increases in sleep disturbances are a leading indicator of resident wellness, predicting decreased well-being 1 month later. Conclusions: Sleep quality exerts a significant effect on self-reported resident wellness. Periodic evaluation of sleep quality may alert program leadership and the residents themselves to impending decreases in psychological well-being.

  15. Predicting Circulatory Diseases from Psychosocial Safety Climate: A Prospective Cohort Study from Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry Becher

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Circulatory diseases (CDs (including myocardial infarction, angina, stroke or hypertension are among the leading causes of death in the world. In this paper, we explore for the first time the impact of a specific aspect of organizational climate, Psychosocial Safety Climate (PSC, on CDs. We used two waves of interview data from Australia, with an average lag of 5 years (excluding baseline CDs, final n = 1223. Logistic regression was conducted to estimate the prospective associations between PSC at baseline on incident CDs at follow-up. It was found that participants in low PSC environments were 59% more likely to develop new CD than those in high PSC environments. Logistic regression showed that high PSC at baseline predicts lower CD risk at follow-up (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.00 and this risk remained unchanged even after additional adjustment for known job design risk factors (effort reward imbalance and job strain. These results suggest that PSC is an independent risk factor for CDs in Australia. Beyond job design this study implicates organizational climate and prevailing management values regarding worker psychological health as the genesis of CDs.

  16. Circulating histones for predicting prognosis after cardiac surgery: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hongxiang; Zhang, Naipu; Lu, Fangfang; Yu, Xindi; Zhu, Limin; Mo, Xi; Wang, Wei

    2016-11-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the perioperative changes in circulating histones and their relationships with other biomarkers and clinical outcomes after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) in patients. Forty-eight patients with congenital cardiac diseases undergoing corrective procedure with CPB were prospectively enrolled in this study. Circulating histones, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured preoperatively (T0) and at 0 (T1), 24 (T2), 48 (T3) and 72 (T4) h postoperatively. The relationships between biomarkers and clinical outcomes were analysed. Circulating histones, NT-proBNP, PCT and CRP increased significantly postoperatively, with histones reaching the peak value earliest at T1. Circulating histone levels were higher in patients with adverse events. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that peak histone levels had a better predictive value for adverse events postoperatively. Peak histone levels correlated with the peak level of NT-proBNP (r = 0.563, P histones reached peak levels faster than NT-proBNP, PCT and CRP. Furthermore, peak histone levels correlated with biomarkers and postoperative clinical outcomes. Circulating histones may be used as a prognostic indicator for patients after cardiac surgery with CPB. ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT02325765). © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  17. Irregular menses predicts ovarian cancer: Prospective evidence from the Child Health and Development Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirillo, Piera M; Wang, Erica T; Cedars, Marcelle I; Chen, Lee-May; Cohn, Barbara A

    2016-09-01

    We tested the hypothesis that irregular menstruation predicts lower risk for ovarian cancer, possibly due to less frequent ovulation. We conducted a 50-year prospective study of 15,528 mothers in the Child Health and Development Studies cohort recruited from the Kaiser Foundation Health Plan from 1959 to 1966. Irregular menstruation was classified via medical record and self-report at age 26. We identified 116 cases and 84 deaths due to ovarian cancer through 2011 via linkage to the California Cancer Registry and Vital Statistics. Contrary to expectation, women with irregular menstrual cycles had a higher risk of ovarian cancer incidence and mortality over the 50-year follow-up. Associations increased with age (p irregular menstruation and ovarian cancer-we unexpectedly found higher risk for women with irregular cycles. These women are easy to identify and many may have polycystic ovarian syndrome. Classifying high-risk phenotypes such as irregular menstruation creates opportunities to find novel early biomarkers, refine clinical screening protocols and potentially develop new risk reduction strategies. These efforts can lead to earlier detection and better survival for ovarian cancer. © 2016 UICC.

  18. Does Preinterventional Flat-Panel Computer Tomography Pooled Blood Volume Mapping Predict Final Infarct Volume After Mechanical Thrombectomy in Acute Cerebral Artery Occlusion?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, Marlies; Kyriakou, Yiannis; Mesnil de Rochemont, Richard du; Singer, Oliver C.; Berkefeld, Joachim

    2013-01-01

    PurposeDecreased cerebral blood volume is known to be a predictor for final infarct volume in acute cerebral artery occlusion. To evaluate the predictability of final infarct volume in patients with acute occlusion of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) or the distal internal carotid artery (ICA) and successful endovascular recanalization, pooled blood volume (PBV) was measured using flat-panel detector computed tomography (FPD CT).Materials and MethodsTwenty patients with acute unilateral occlusion of the MCA or distal ACI without demarcated infarction, as proven by CT at admission, and successful Thrombolysis in cerebral infarction score (TICI 2b or 3) endovascular thrombectomy were included. Cerebral PBV maps were acquired from each patient immediately before endovascular thrombectomy. Twenty-four hours after recanalization, each patient underwent multislice CT to visualize final infarct volume. Extent of the areas of decreased PBV was compared with the final infarct volume proven by follow-up CT the next day.ResultsIn 15 of 20 patients, areas of distinct PBV decrease corresponded to final infarct volume. In 5 patients, areas of decreased PBV overestimated final extension of ischemia probably due to inappropriate timing of data acquisition and misery perfusion.ConclusionPBV mapping using FPD CT is a promising tool to predict areas of irrecoverable brain parenchyma in acute thromboembolic stroke. Further validation is necessary before routine use for decision making for interventional thrombectomy

  19. Multiphasic perfusion CT in acute middle cerebral artery ischemic stroke: prediction of final infarct volume and correlation with clinical outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Chin A; Na, Dong Gyu; Ryoo, Jae Wook; Moon, Chan Hong; Byun, Hong Sik; Roh, Hong Gee; Moon, Won Jin; Lee, Kwang Ho; Lee, Soo Joo

    2002-01-01

    To assess the utility of multiphasic perfusion CT in the prediction of final infarct volume, and the relationship between lesion volume revealed by CT imaging and clinical outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients who have not undergone thrombolytic therapy. Thirty-five patients underwent multiphasic perfusion CT within six hours of stroke onset. After baseline unenhanced helical CT scanning, contrast-enhanced CT scans were obtained 20, 34, 48, and 62 secs after the injection of 90 mL contrast medium at a rate of 3 mL/sec. CT peak and total perfusion maps were obtained from serial CT images, and the initial lesion volumes revealed by CT were compared with final infarct volumes and clinical scores. Overall, the lesion volumes seen on CT peak perfusion maps correlated most strongly with final infarct volumes (R2=0.819, p<0.001, slope of regression line=1.016), but individual data showed that they were less than final infarct volume in 31.4% of patients. In those who showed early clinical improvement (n=6), final infarct volume tended to be overestimated by CT peak perfusion mapping and only on total perfusion maps was there significant correlation between lesion volume and final infarct volume (R2=0.854, p=0.008). The lesion volumes depicted by CT maps showed moderate correlation with baseline clinical scores and clinical outcomes (R=0.445-0.706, p≤0.007). CT peak perfusion maps demonstrate strong correlation between lesion volume and final infarct volume, and accurately predict final infarct volume in about two-thirds of the 35 patients. The lesion volume seen on CT maps shows moderate correlation with clinical outcome

  20. Predicting the outcome of chronic kidney disease by the estimated nephron number: The rationale and design of PRONEP, a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imasawa Toshiyuki

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The nephron number is thought to be associated with the outcome of chronic kidney disease (CKD. If the nephron number can be estimated in the clinical setting, it could become a strong tool to predict renal outcome. This study was designed to estimate the nephron number in CKD patients and to establish a method to predict the outcome by using the estimated nephron number. Methods/Design The hypothesis of this study is that the estimated nephron number can predict the outcome of a CKD patient. This will be a multicenter, prospective (minimum 3 and maximum 5 years follow-up study. The subjects will comprise CKD patients aged over 14 years who have undergone a kidney biopsy. From January 2011 to March 2013, we will recruit 600 CKD patients from 10 hospitals belonging to the National Hospital Organization of Japan. The primary parameter for assessment is the composite of total mortality, renal death, cerebro-cardiovascular events, and a 50% reduction in the eGFR. The secondary parameter is the rate of eGFR decline per year. The nephron number will be estimated by the glomerular density in biopsy specimens and the renal cortex volume. This study includes one sub-cohort study to establish the equation to calculate the renal cortex volume. Enrollment will be performed at the time of the kidney biopsy, and the data will consist of a medical interview, ultrasound for measurement of the kidney size, blood or urine test, and the pathological findings of the kidney biopsy. Patients will continue to have medical consultations and receive examinations and/or treatment as usual. The data from the patients will be collected once a year after the kidney biopsy until March 2016. All data using this study are easily obtained in routine clinical practice. Discussion This study includes the first trials to estimate the renal cortex volume and nephron number in the general clinical setting. Furthermore, this is the first prospective study to

  1. Establishment the code for prediction of waste volume on NPP decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, W. H.; Park, S. K.; Choi, Y. D.; Kim, I. S.; Moon, J. K.

    2013-01-01

    In practice, decommissioning waste volume can be estimated appropriately by finding the differences between prediction and actual operation and considering the operational problem or supplementary matters. So in the nuclear developed countries such as U.S. or Japan, the decommissioning waste volume is predicted on the basis of the experience in their own decommissioning projects. Because of the contamination caused by radioactive material, decontamination activity and management of radio-active waste should be considered in decommissioning of nuclear facility unlike the usual plant or facility. As the decommissioning activity is performed repeatedly, data for similar activities are accumulated, and optimal strategy can be achieved by comparison with the predicted strategy. Therefore, a variety of decommissioning experiences are the most important. In Korea, there is no data on the decommissioning of commercial nuclear power plants yet. However, KAERI has accumulated the basis decommissioning data of nuclear facility through decommissioning of research reactor (KRR-2) and uranium conversion plant (UCP). And DECOMMIS(DECOMMissioning Information Management System) was developed to provide and manage the whole data of decommissioning project. Two codes, FAC code and WBS code, were established in this process. FAC code is the one which is classified by decommissioning target of nuclear facility, and WBS code is classified by each decommissioning activity. The reason why two codes where created is that the codes used in DEFACS (Decommissioning Facility Characterization management System) and DEWOCS (Decommissioning Work-unit productivity Calculation System) are different from each other, and they were classified each purpose. DEFACS which manages the facility needs the code that categorizes facility characteristics, and DEWOCS which calculates unit productivity needs the code that categorizes decommissioning waste volume. KAERI has accumulated decommissioning data of KRR

  2. Regional Differences in Brain Volume Predict the Acquisition of Skill in a Complex Real-Time Strategy Videogame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basak, Chandramallika; Voss, Michelle W.; Erickson, Kirk I.; Boot, Walter R.; Kramer, Arthur F.

    2011-01-01

    Previous studies have found that differences in brain volume among older adults predict performance in laboratory tasks of executive control, memory, and motor learning. In the present study we asked whether regional differences in brain volume as assessed by the application of a voxel-based morphometry technique on high resolution MRI would also…

  3. Bulbar impairment score predicts noninvasive volume-cycled ventilation failure during an acute lower respiratory tract infection in ALS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servera, Emilio; Sancho, Jesús; Bañuls, Pilar; Marín, Julio

    2015-11-15

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients can suffer episodes of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) leading to an acute respiratory failure (ARF) requiring noninvasive ventilation (NIV). To determine whether clinical or functional parameters can predict noninvasive management failure during LRTI causing ARF in ALS. A prospective study involving all ALS patients with ARF requiring NIV in a Respiratory Care Unit. NIV was provided with volume-cycled ventilators. 63 ALS patients were included (APACHE II: 14.93±3.56, Norris bulbar subscore (NBS): 18.78±9.68, ALSFRS-R: 19.90±6.98, %FVC: 40.01±18.07%, MIC: 1.62±0.74L, PCF 2.51±1.15L/s, PImax -34.90±19.44cmH2O, PEmax 51.20±28.84cmH2O). In 73.0% of patients NIV was successful in averting death or endotracheal intubation. Differences were found between the success and failure in the NBS (22.08±6.15 vs 8.66±3.39, pNIV failure was the NBS (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.31-0.92, p 0.002) with a cut-off point of 12 (S 0.93; E 0.97; PPV 0.76; NPV 0.97). NBS can predict noninvasive management failure during LRTI in ALS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Is it possible to predict low-volume and insignificant prostate cancer by core needle biopsies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Kasper Drimer; Toft, Birgitte Grønkaer; Røder, Martin Andreas

    2013-01-01

    M: tumour ≤5% of total prostate volume and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤10 ng/mL. In all definitions, Gleason score (GS) was ≤6 and the tumour was organ confined. Biopsies alone performed poorly as a predictor of unifocal and unilateral cancer in the prostatectomy specimens with positive predictive......In an attempt to minimize overtreatment of localized prostate cancer (PCa) active surveillance (AS) and minor invasive procedures have received increased attention. We investigated the accuracy of pre-operative findings in defining insignificant disease and distinguishing between unilateral.......9% and 12.0%, respectively, for identifying InsigM, InsigW and InsigE in the prostate specimen. Conclusively, routine prostate biopsies cannot predict unifocal and unilateral PCa, and must be regarded insufficient to select patients for focal therapy. Although candidates for AS may be identified using...

  5. Preoperative prediction of lymph node metastasis and deep stromal invasion in women with invasive cervical cancer: prospective multicenter study using 2D and 3D ultrasound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pálsdóttir, K; Fischerova, D; Franchi, D; Testa, A; Di Legge, A; Epstein, E

    2015-04-01

    To determine how various objective two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) ultrasound parameters allow prediction of deep stromal tumor invasion and lymph node involvement, in comparison to subjective ultrasound assessment, in women scheduled for surgery for cervical cancer. This was a prospective multicenter trial including 104 women with cervical cancer at FIGO Stages IA2-IIB, verified histologically. Patients scheduled for surgery underwent a preoperative ultrasound examination. The value of various 2D (size, color score) and 3D (volume, vascular indices) ultrasound parameters was compared to that of subjective assessment in the prediction of deep stromal tumor invasion and lymph node involvement. Histology obtained from radical hysterectomy or trachelectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy was considered as the gold standard for assessment. All women underwent pelvic lymphadenectomy, with 99 (95%) undergoing subsequent radical surgery; five underwent only pelvic lymphadenectomy because of the presence of a positive sentinel lymph node. Women with deep stromal invasion or lymph node involvement had significantly larger tumors (diameter and volume) but there was no correlation with vascular indices measured on 3D ultrasound. Subjective evaluation was superior (AUC, 0.93; sensitivity, 90.5%; specificity, 97.2%) in the prediction of deep stromal invasion when compared to any objective measurement technique, with maximal tumor diameter at 20.5-mm cut-off (AUC, 0.83; sensitivity, 90.5%; specificity, 61.1%) and 3D tumor volume at 9.1-mm(3) cut-off (AUC, 0.85; sensitivity, 79.4%; specificity, 83.3%) providing the best performance among the objective parameters. Both subjective assessment and objective measurements were poorly predictive of lymph node involvement. In women with cervical cancer, subjective ultrasound evaluation allowed better prediction of deep stromal invasion than did objective measurements; however, neither subjective evaluation nor objective

  6. Hopefulness predicts resilience after hereditary colorectal cancer genetic testing: a prospective outcome trajectories study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu Annie TW

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background - Genetic testing for hereditary colorectal cancer (HCRC had significant psychological consequences for test recipients. This prospective longitudinal study investigated the factors that predict psychological resilience in adults undergoing genetic testing for HCRC. Methods - A longitudinal study was carried out from April 2003 to August 2006 on Hong Kong Chinese HCRC family members who were recruited and offered genetic testing by the Hereditary Gastrointestinal Cancer Registry to determine psychological outcomes after genetic testing. Self-completed questionnaires were administered immediately before (pre-disclosure baseline and 2 weeks, 4 months and 1 year after result disclosure. Using validated psychological inventories, the cognitive style of hope was measured at baseline, and the psychological distress of depression and anxiety was measured at all time points. Results - Of the 76 participating subjects, 71 individuals (43 men and 28 women; mean age 38.9 ± 9.2 years from nine FAP and 24 HNPCC families completed the study, including 39 mutated gene carriers. Four patterns of outcome trajectories were created using established norms for the specified outcome measures of depression and anxiety. These included chronic dysfunction (13% and 8.7%, recovery (0% and 4.3%, delayed dysfunction (13% and 15.9% and resilience (76.8% and 66.7%. Two logistic regression analyses were conducted using hope at baseline to predict resilience, with depression and anxiety employed as outcome indicators. Because of the small number of participants, the chronic dysfunction and delayed dysfunction groups were combined into a non-resilient group for comparison with the resilient group in all subsequent analysis. Because of low frequencies, participants exhibiting a recovery trajectory (n = 3 for anxiety and n = 0 for depression were excluded from further analysis. Both regression equations were significant. Baseline hope was a significant

  7. Hopefulness predicts resilience after hereditary colorectal cancer genetic testing: a prospective outcome trajectories study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Samuel M Y; Ho, Judy W C; Bonanno, George A; Chu, Annie T W; Chan, Emily M S

    2010-06-11

    Genetic testing for hereditary colorectal cancer (HCRC) had significant psychological consequences for test recipients. This prospective longitudinal study investigated the factors that predict psychological resilience in adults undergoing genetic testing for HCRC. A longitudinal study was carried out from April 2003 to August 2006 on Hong Kong Chinese HCRC family members who were recruited and offered genetic testing by the Hereditary Gastrointestinal Cancer Registry to determine psychological outcomes after genetic testing. Self-completed questionnaires were administered immediately before (pre-disclosure baseline) and 2 weeks, 4 months and 1 year after result disclosure. Using validated psychological inventories, the cognitive style of hope was measured at baseline, and the psychological distress of depression and anxiety was measured at all time points. Of the 76 participating subjects, 71 individuals (43 men and 28 women; mean age 38.9 +/- 9.2 years) from nine FAP and 24 HNPCC families completed the study, including 39 mutated gene carriers. Four patterns of outcome trajectories were created using established norms for the specified outcome measures of depression and anxiety. These included chronic dysfunction (13% and 8.7%), recovery (0% and 4.3%), delayed dysfunction (13% and 15.9%) and resilience (76.8% and 66.7%). Two logistic regression analyses were conducted using hope at baseline to predict resilience, with depression and anxiety employed as outcome indicators. Because of the small number of participants, the chronic dysfunction and delayed dysfunction groups were combined into a non-resilient group for comparison with the resilient group in all subsequent analysis. Because of low frequencies, participants exhibiting a recovery trajectory (n = 3 for anxiety and n = 0 for depression) were excluded from further analysis. Both regression equations were significant. Baseline hope was a significant predictor of a resilience outcome trajectory for depression

  8. Parametric Optimization and Prediction Tool for Excavation and Prospecting Tasks, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Honeybee Robotics therefore proposed to develop a software tool for facilitating prospecting and excavation system trades in support of selecting an optimal...

  9. Predicting oropharyngeal tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy from pretreatment computed tomography data using general linear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yock, Adam D; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M; Garden, Adam S; Kudchadker, Rajat J; Court, Laurence E

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this work was to develop and evaluate the accuracy of several predictive models of variation in tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy. Nineteen patients with oropharyngeal cancers were imaged daily with CT-on-rails for image-guided alignment per an institutional protocol. The daily volumes of 35 tumors in these 19 patients were determined and used to generate (1) a linear model in which tumor volume changed at a constant rate, (2) a general linear model that utilized the power fit relationship between the daily and initial tumor volumes, and (3) a functional general linear model that identified and exploited the primary modes of variation between time series describing the changing tumor volumes. Primary and nodal tumor volumes were examined separately. The accuracy of these models in predicting daily tumor volumes were compared with those of static and linear reference models using leave-one-out cross-validation. In predicting the daily volume of primary tumors, the general linear model and the functional general linear model were more accurate than the static reference model by 9.9% (range: -11.6%-23.8%) and 14.6% (range: -7.3%-27.5%), respectively, and were more accurate than the linear reference model by 14.2% (range: -6.8%-40.3%) and 13.1% (range: -1.5%-52.5%), respectively. In predicting the daily volume of nodal tumors, only the 14.4% (range: -11.1%-20.5%) improvement in accuracy of the functional general linear model compared to the static reference model was statistically significant. A general linear model and a functional general linear model trained on data from a small population of patients can predict the primary tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy with greater accuracy than standard reference models. These more accurate models may increase the prognostic value of information about the tumor garnered from pretreatment computed tomography images and facilitate improved treatment management.

  10. Cervical Vertebral Body’s Volume as a New Parameter for Predicting the Skeletal Maturation Stages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youn-Kyung Choi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the correlation between the volumetric parameters derived from the images of the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae by using cone beam computed tomography with skeletal maturation stages and to propose a new formula for predicting skeletal maturation by using regression analysis. We obtained the estimation of skeletal maturation levels from hand-wrist radiographs and volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae bodies from 102 Japanese patients (54 women and 48 men, 5–18 years of age. We performed Pearson’s correlation coefficient analysis and simple regression analysis. All volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae exhibited statistically significant correlations (P<0.05. The simple regression model with the greatest R-square indicated the fourth-cervical-vertebra volume as an independent variable with a variance inflation factor less than ten. The explanation power was 81.76%. Volumetric parameters of cervical vertebrae using cone beam computed tomography are useful in regression models. The derived regression model has the potential for clinical application as it enables a simple and quantitative analysis to evaluate skeletal maturation level.

  11. Cervical Vertebral Body's Volume as a New Parameter for Predicting the Skeletal Maturation Stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Youn-Kyung; Kim, Jinmi; Yamaguchi, Tetsutaro; Maki, Koutaro; Ko, Ching-Chang; Kim, Yong-Il

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the correlation between the volumetric parameters derived from the images of the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae by using cone beam computed tomography with skeletal maturation stages and to propose a new formula for predicting skeletal maturation by using regression analysis. We obtained the estimation of skeletal maturation levels from hand-wrist radiographs and volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae bodies from 102 Japanese patients (54 women and 48 men, 5-18 years of age). We performed Pearson's correlation coefficient analysis and simple regression analysis. All volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae exhibited statistically significant correlations (P cervical-vertebra volume as an independent variable with a variance inflation factor less than ten. The explanation power was 81.76%. Volumetric parameters of cervical vertebrae using cone beam computed tomography are useful in regression models. The derived regression model has the potential for clinical application as it enables a simple and quantitative analysis to evaluate skeletal maturation level.

  12. Prediction of quantitative intrathoracic fluid volume to diagnose pulmonary oedema using LabVIEW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urooj, Shabana; Khan, M; Ansari, A Q; Lay-Ekuakille, Aimé; Salhan, Ashok K

    2012-01-01

    Pulmonary oedema is a life-threatening disease that requires special attention in the area of research and clinical diagnosis. Computer-based techniques are rarely used to quantify the intrathoracic fluid volume (IFV) for diagnostic purposes. This paper discusses a software program developed to detect and diagnose pulmonary oedema using LabVIEW. The software runs on anthropometric dimensions and physiological parameters, mainly transthoracic electrical impedance (TEI). This technique is accurate and faster than existing manual techniques. The LabVIEW software was used to compute the parameters required to quantify IFV. An equation relating per cent control and IFV was obtained. The results of predicted TEI and measured TEI were compared with previously reported data to validate the developed program. It was found that the predicted values of TEI obtained from the computer-based technique were much closer to the measured values of TEI. Six new subjects were enrolled to measure and predict transthoracic impedance and hence to quantify IFV. A similar difference was also observed in the measured and predicted values of TEI for the new subjects.

  13. DemQSAR: predicting human volume of distribution and clearance of drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir-Kavuk, Ozgur; Bentzien, Jörg; Muegge, Ingo; Knapp, Ernst-Walter

    2011-12-01

    In silico methods characterizing molecular compounds with respect to pharmacologically relevant properties can accelerate the identification of new drugs and reduce their development costs. Quantitative structure-activity/-property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) correlate structure and physico-chemical properties of molecular compounds with a specific functional activity/property under study. Typically a large number of molecular features are generated for the compounds. In many cases the number of generated features exceeds the number of molecular compounds with known property values that are available for learning. Machine learning methods tend to overfit the training data in such situations, i.e. the method adjusts to very specific features of the training data, which are not characteristic for the considered property. This problem can be alleviated by diminishing the influence of unimportant, redundant or even misleading features. A better strategy is to eliminate such features completely. Ideally, a molecular property can be described by a small number of features that are chemically interpretable. The purpose of the present contribution is to provide a predictive modeling approach, which combines feature generation, feature selection, model building and control of overtraining into a single application called DemQSAR. DemQSAR is used to predict human volume of distribution (VD(ss)) and human clearance (CL). To control overtraining, quadratic and linear regularization terms were employed. A recursive feature selection approach is used to reduce the number of descriptors. The prediction performance is as good as the best predictions reported in the recent literature. The example presented here demonstrates that DemQSAR can generate a model that uses very few features while maintaining high predictive power. A standalone DemQSAR Java application for model building of any user defined property as well as a web interface for the prediction of human VD(ss) and CL is

  14. Novel use of the Wii Balance Board to prospectively predict falls in community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Boon-Chong; Clark, Ross A; Pua, Yong-Hao

    2015-06-01

    The Wii Balance Board has received increasing attention as a balance measurement tool; however its ability to prospectively predict falls is unknown. This exploratory study investigated the use of the Wii Balance Board and other clinical-based measures for prospectively predicting falls among community-dwelling older adults. Seventy-three community-dwelling men and women, aged 60-85years were followed-up over a year for falls. Standing balance was indexed by sway velocities measured using the Wii Balance Board interfaced with a laptop. Clinical-based measures included Short Physical Performance Battery, gait speed and Timed-Up-and-Go test. Multivariable regression analyses were used to assess the ability of the Wii Balance Board measure to complement the TUG test in fall screening. Individually, the study found Wii Balance Board anteroposterior (odds ratio 1.98, 95% CI 1.16 to 3.40, P=0.01) and mediolateral (odds ratio 2.80, 95% CI 1.10 to 7.13, p=0.03) sway velocity measures predictive of prospective falls. However, when each velocity measure was adjusted with body mass index and Timed-Up-and-Go, only anteroposterior sway velocity was predictive of prospective falls (odds ratio 2.21, 95% CI 1.18 to 4.14). A faster anteroposterior velocity was associated with increased odds of falling. Area-under-the-curves for Wii Balance Board sway velocities were 0.67 and 0.71 for anteroposterior and mediolateral respectively. The Wii Balance Board-derived anteroposterior sway velocity measure could complement existing clinical-based measures in predicting future falls among community-dwelling older adults. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number: ACTRN12610001099011. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Behavioral inhibition in childhood predicts smaller hippocampal volume in adolescent offspring of parents with panic disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, C E; Kunwar, P S; Hirshfeld-Becker, D R; Henin, A; Vangel, M G; Rauch, S L; Biederman, J; Rosenbaum, J F

    2015-01-01

    Behavioral inhibition (BI) is a genetically influenced behavioral profile seen in 15–20% of 2-year-old children. Children with BI are timid with people, objects and situations that are novel or unfamiliar, and are more reactive physiologically to these challenges as evidenced by higher heart rate, pupillary dilation, vocal cord tension and higher levels of cortisol. BI predisposes to the later development of anxiety, depression and substance abuse. Reduced hippocampal volumes have been observed in anxiety disorders, depression and posttraumatic stress disorder. Animal models have demonstrated that chronic stress can damage the hippocampal formation and implicated cortisol in these effects. We, therefore, hypothesized that the hippocampi of late adolescents who had been behaviorally inhibited as children would be smaller compared with those who had not been inhibited. Hippocampal volume was measured with high-resolution structural magnetic resonance imaging in 43 females and 40 males at 17 years of age who were determined to be BI+ or BI− based on behaviors observed in the laboratory as young children. BI in childhood predicted reduced hippocampal volumes in the adolescents who were offspring of parents with panic disorder, or panic disorder with comorbid major depression. We discuss genetic and environmental factors emanating from both child and parent that may explain these findings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to demonstrate a relationship between the most extensively studied form of temperamentally based human trait anxiety, BI, and hippocampal structure. The reduction in hippocampal volume, as reported by us, suggests a role for the hippocampus in human trait anxiety and anxiety disorder that warrants further investigation. PMID:26196438

  16. Predictive factors of occupational noise-induced hearing loss in Spanish workers: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelegrin, Armando Carballo; Canuet, Leonides; Rodríguez, Ángeles Arias; Morales, Maria Pilar Arévalo

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of our study was to identify the main factors associated with objective noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL), as indicated by abnormal audiometric testing, in Spanish workers exposed to occupational noise in the construction industry. We carried out a prospective study in Tenerife, Spain, using 150 employees exposed to occupational noise and 150 age-matched controls who were not working in noisy environments. The variables analyzed included sociodemographic data, noise-related factors, types of hearing protection, self-report hearing loss, and auditory-related symptoms (e.g., tinnitus, vertigo). Workers with pathological audiograms had significantly longer noise-exposure duration (16.2 ± 11.4 years) relative to those with normal audiograms (10.2 ± 7.0 years; t = 3.99, P hearing protection measures had audiometric abnormalities (94.1%). Additionally, workers using at least one of the protection devices (earplugs or earmuffs) had significantly more audiometric abnormalities than those using both protection measures simultaneously (Chi square = 16.07; P hearing protection measures [odds ratio (OR) = 12.30, confidence interval (CI) = 4.36-13.81, P hearing protection measures, in particular earplugs and earmuffs, associates with a lower rate of audiometric abnormalities in subjects with high occupational noise exposure. The use of hearing protection measures at work and noise-exposure duration are best predictive factors of NIHL. Auditory-related symptoms and self-report hearing loss do not represent good indicators of objective NIHL. Routine monitoring of noise levels and hearing status are of great importance as part of effective hearing conservation programs.

  17. Antimicrobial resistance predicts death in Tanzanian children with bloodstream infections: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Msangi Viola

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bloodstream infection is a common cause of hospitalization, morbidity and death in children. The impact of antimicrobial resistance and HIV infection on outcome is not firmly established. Methods We assessed the incidence of bloodstream infection and risk factors for fatal outcome in a prospective cohort study of 1828 consecutive admissions of children aged zero to seven years with signs of systemic infection. Blood was obtained for culture, malaria microscopy, HIV antibody test and, when necessary, HIV PCR. We recorded data on clinical features, underlying diseases, antimicrobial drug use and patients' outcome. Results The incidence of laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection was 13.9% (255/1828 of admissions, despite two thirds of the study population having received antimicrobial therapy prior to blood culture. The most frequent isolates were klebsiella, salmonellae, Escherichia coli, enterococci and Staphylococcus aureus. Furthermore, 21.6% had malaria and 16.8% HIV infection. One third (34.9% of the children with laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection died. The mortality rate from Gram-negative bloodstream infection (43.5% was more than double that of malaria (20.2% and Gram-positive bloodstream infection (16.7%. Significant risk factors for death by logistic regression modeling were inappropriate treatment due to antimicrobial resistance, HIV infection, other underlying infectious diseases, malnutrition and bloodstream infection caused by Enterobacteriaceae, other Gram-negatives and candida. Conclusion Bloodstream infection was less common than malaria, but caused more deaths. The frequent use of antimicrobials prior to blood culture may have hampered the detection of organisms susceptible to commonly used antimicrobials, including pneumococci, and thus the study probably underestimates the incidence of bloodstream infection. The finding that antimicrobial resistance, HIV-infection and malnutrition predict fatal

  18. Utility of Volume Assessment Using Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis in Critically Ill Patients Receiving Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy: A Prospective Observational Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki Hyun Park

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Fluid overload prior to continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT is an important prognostic factor. Thus, precise evaluation of fluid status is necessary to treat such patients. In this study, we investigated whether fluid assessment using bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA can predict outcomes in critically ill patients requiring CRRT. Methods A prospective observational study was performed in patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit and who required CRRT. BIA was conducted before CRRT; then, the ratio of extracellular water to total body water (ECW/TBW was derived to estimate volume status. Results A total of 31 patients treated with CRRT were included. There were 18 men (58.1%, and the median age was 67 years (interquartile range, 51 to 78 years. Fourteen patients (45.2% died within 28 days after CRRT initiation. Patients were divided into 16 with ECW/TBW ≥0.41 and 15 with ECW/TBW <0.41. Survival rate within 28 days was different between the two groups (P = 0.044. Cox regression analysis revealed a relationship between ECW/TBW ≥0.41 and 28-day mortality, but it was not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 0.9 to 9.8; P = 0.061. Lastly, the area under the curve of ECW/TBW for 28-day mortality was analyzed. The area under the curve of ECW/TBW was 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.54 to 0.92, and this was significant (P = 0.037. Conclusions Fluid status can be assessed using BIA in critically ill patients requiring CRRT, and BIA can predict mortality. Further large trials are needed to confirm the usefulness of BIA in critically ill patients.

  19. Hippocampal Volume Reduction in Humans Predicts Impaired Allocentric Spatial Memory in Virtual-Reality Navigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guderian, Sebastian; Dzieciol, Anna M; Gadian, David G; Jentschke, Sebastian; Doeller, Christian F; Burgess, Neil; Mishkin, Mortimer; Vargha-Khadem, Faraneh

    2015-10-21

    The extent to which navigational spatial memory depends on hippocampal integrity in humans is not well documented. We investigated allocentric spatial recall using a virtual environment in a group of patients with severe hippocampal damage (SHD), a group of patients with "moderate" hippocampal damage (MHD), and a normal control group. Through four learning blocks with feedback, participants learned the target locations of four different objects in a circular arena. Distal cues were present throughout the experiment to provide orientation. A circular boundary as well as an intra-arena landmark provided spatial reference frames. During a subsequent test phase, recall of all four objects was tested with only the boundary or the landmark being present. Patients with SHD were impaired in both phases of this task. Across groups, performance on both types of spatial recall was highly correlated with memory quotient (MQ), but not with intelligence quotient (IQ), age, or sex. However, both measures of spatial recall separated experimental groups beyond what would be expected based on MQ, a widely used measure of general memory function. Boundary-based and landmark-based spatial recall were both strongly related to bilateral hippocampal volumes, but not to volumes of the thalamus, putamen, pallidum, nucleus accumbens, or caudate nucleus. The results show that boundary-based and landmark-based allocentric spatial recall are similarly impaired in patients with SHD, that both types of recall are impaired beyond that predicted by MQ, and that recall deficits are best explained by a reduction in bilateral hippocampal volumes. In humans, bilateral hippocampal atrophy can lead to profound impairments in episodic memory. Across species, perhaps the most well-established contribution of the hippocampus to memory is not to episodic memory generally but to allocentric spatial memory. However, the extent to which navigational spatial memory depends on hippocampal integrity in humans is

  20. Metallogenetic prospecting prediction of volcanic rock type of uranium deposit in Pucheng Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Bin; Wang Yong

    1998-01-01

    Based on the metallogenetic geological conditions of Pucheng area, metallogenetic geological model existing and the information quality method, the logic vector length method and the logic vector length weighted method, some favorable geological variance are selected. The assessment model is set up and some favorable metallogenetic area are delineated according to the different contribution degrees of the geological variances to mineralization. By geological assessment in the favorable metallogenetic areas, it is considered that the favorable metallogenetic geological conditions exist in this areas, and there are prospecting prospective surroundings areas and glorious prospecting future were confirmed in the district

  1. Value of quantitative MRI parameters in predicting and evaluating clinical outcome in conservatively treated patients with chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsehaie, J; Poot, D H J; Oei, E H G; Verhaar, J A N; de Vos, R J

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate whether baseline MRI parameters provide prognostic value for clinical outcome, and to study correlation between MRI parameters and clinical outcome. Observational prospective cohort study. Patients with chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy were included and performed a 16-week eccentric calf-muscle exercise program. Outcome measurements were the validated Victorian Institute of Sports Assessment-Achilles (VISA-A) questionnaire and MRI parameters at baseline and after 24 weeks. The following MRI parameters were assessed: tendon volume (Volume), tendon maximum cross-sectional area (CSA), tendon maximum anterior-posterior diameter (AP), and signal intensity (SI). Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) and minimum detectable changes (MDCs) for each parameter were established in a reliability analysis. Twenty-five patients were included and complete follow-up was achieved in 20 patients. The average VISA-A scores increased significantly with 12.3 points (27.6%). The reliability was fair-good for all MRI-parameters with ICCs>0.50. Average tendon volume and CSA decreased significantly with 0.28cm 3 (5.2%) and 4.52mm 2 (4.6%) respectively. Other MRI parameters did not change significantly. None of the baseline MRI parameters were univariately associated with VISA-A change after 24 weeks. MRI SI increase over 24 weeks was positively correlated with the VISA-A score improvement (B=0.7, R 2 =0.490, p=0.02). Tendon volume and CSA decreased significantly after 24 weeks of conservative treatment. As these differences were within the MDC limits, they could be a result of a measurement error. Furthermore, MRI parameters at baseline did not predict the change in symptoms, and therefore have no added value in providing a prognosis in daily clinical practice. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Target volume for postoperative radiotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer: Results from a prospective trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kępka, Lucyna; Bujko, Krzysztof; Bujko, Magdalena; Matecka-Nowak, Mirosława; Salata, Andrzej; Janowski, Henryk; Rogowska, Danuta; Cieślak-Żerańska, Ewa; Komosińska, Katarzyna; Zawadzka, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: A previous prospective trial reported that three-dimensional conformal postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) for pN2 NSCLC patients using a limited clinical target volume (CTV) had a late morbidity rate and pulmonary function that did not differ from those observed in pN1 patients treated with surgery without PORT. The aim of this study was to assess locoregional control and localization of failure in patients treated with PORT. Materials and methods: The pattern of locoregional failure was evaluated retrospectively in 151 of 171 patients included in the PORT arm. The CTV included the involved lymph node stations and those with a risk of invasion >10%. Competing risk analysis was used to assess the incidence of locoregional failure and its location outside the CTV. Results: Overall survival at 5 years was 27.1% with a median follow-up of 67 months for 40 living patients. The 5-year cumulative incidence of locoregional failure was 19.4% (95% CI: 18.2–20.5%) including a failure rate of 2% (95% CI: 0–17%) in locations outside or at the border of the CTV. Conclusions: The use of limited CTV was associated with acceptable risk of geographic miss. Overall locoregional control was similar to that reported by other studies using PORT for pN2 patients

  3. Temporal lobe volume predicts Wada memory test performance in patients with mesial temporal sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Kan; Gong, Yunhua; Modur, Pradeep N; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; Agostini, Mark; Gupta, Puneet; McColl, Roderick; Hays, Ryan; Van Ness, Paul

    2016-02-01

    The Wada test is widely used in the presurgical evaluation of potential temporal lobectomy patients to predict postoperative memory function. Expected asymmetry (EA), defined as Wada memory lateralized to the nonsurgical hemisphere, or a higher score after injection of the surgical hemisphere would be considered favorable in terms of postoperative memory outcome. However, in some cases, nonlateralized memory (NM) results, with no appreciable asymmetry, may occur because of impaired scores after both injections, often leading to denial of surgery. The reason for such nonlateralized Wada memory in patients with intractable temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) remains unclear. Given that quantitative morphometric magnetic resonance imaging studies in TLE patients have shown bilateral regional atrophy in temporal and extratemporal structures, we hypothesized that the volume loss in contralateral temporal structures could contribute to nonlateralized Wada memory performance. To investigate this, we examined the relationship between the volume changes of temporal structures and Wada memory scores in patients with intractable TLE with mesial temporal sclerosis (MTS) using an age- and gender-matched control group. Memory was considered nonlateralized if the absolute difference in the total correct recall scores between ipsilateral and contralateral injections was memory was lateralized in 15 and nonlateralized in 6 patients, with all the nonlateralized scores being observed in left TLE. The recall scores after ipsilateral injection were significantly lower in patients with an NM profile than an EA profile (23 ± 14% vs. 59 ± 18% correct recall, p ≤ 0.001). However, the recall scores after contralateral injection were low but similar between the two groups (25 ± 17% vs. 25 ± 15% correct recall, p=0.97). Compared to controls, all the patients showed greater volume loss in the temporal regions. However, patients with a NM profile showed significantly more volume loss than those

  4. Application of the Streamflow Prediction Tool to Estimate Sediment Dredging Volumes in Texas Coastal Waterways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeates, E.; Dreaper, G.; Afshari, S.; Tavakoly, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past six fiscal years, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has contracted an average of about a billion dollars per year for navigation channel dredging. To execute these funds effectively, USACE Districts must determine which navigation channels need to be dredged in a given year. Improving this prioritization process results in more efficient waterway maintenance. This study uses the Streamflow Prediction Tool, a runoff routing model based on global weather forecast ensembles, to estimate dredged volumes. This study establishes regional linear relationships between cumulative flow and dredged volumes over a long-term simulation covering 30 years (1985-2015), using drainage area and shoaling parameters. The study framework integrates the National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus Dataset) with parameters from the Corps Shoaling Analysis Tool (CSAT) and dredging record data from USACE District records. Results in the test cases of the Houston Ship Channel and the Sabine and Port Arthur Harbor waterways in Texas indicate positive correlation between the simulated streamflows and actual dredging records.

  5. Viscosity Prediction for Petroleum Fluids Using Free Volume Theory and PC-SAFT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoshnamvand, Younes; Assareh, Mehdi

    2018-04-01

    In this study, free volume theory ( FVT) in combination with perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory is implemented for viscosity prediction of petroleum reservoir fluids containing ill-defined components such as cuts and plus fractions. FVT has three adjustable parameters for each component to calculate viscosity. These three parameters for petroleum cuts (especially plus fractions) are not available. In this work, these parameters are determined for different petroleum fractions. A model as a function of molecular weight and specific gravity is developed using 22 real reservoir fluid samples with API grades in the range of 22 to 45. Afterward, the proposed model accuracy in comparison with the accuracy of De la Porte et al. with reference to experimental data is presented. The presented model is used for six real samples in an evaluation step, and the results are compared with available experimental data and the method of De la Porte et al. Finally, the method of Lohrenz et al. and the method of Pedersen et al. as two common industrial methods for viscosity calculation are compared with the proposed approach. The absolute average deviation was 9.7 % for free volume theory method, 15.4 % for Lohrenz et al., and 22.16 for Pedersen et al.

  6. Comparison of Perfusion CT Software to Predict the Final Infarct Volume After Thrombectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austein, Friederike; Riedel, Christian; Kerby, Tina; Meyne, Johannes; Binder, Andreas; Lindner, Thomas; Huhndorf, Monika; Wodarg, Fritz; Jansen, Olav

    2016-09-01

    Computed tomographic perfusion represents an interesting physiological imaging modality to select patients for reperfusion therapy in acute ischemic stroke. The purpose of our study was to determine the accuracy of different commercial perfusion CT software packages (Philips (A), Siemens (B), and RAPID (C)) to predict the final infarct volume (FIV) after mechanical thrombectomy. Single-institutional computed tomographic perfusion data from 147 mechanically recanalized acute ischemic stroke patients were postprocessed. Ischemic core and FIV were compared about thrombolysis in cerebral infarction (TICI) score and time interval to reperfusion. FIV was measured at follow-up imaging between days 1 and 8 after stroke. In 118 successfully recanalized patients (TICI 2b/3), a moderately to strongly positive correlation was observed between ischemic core and FIV. The highest accuracy and best correlation are shown in early and fully recanalized patients (Pearson r for A=0.42, B=0.64, and C=0.83; P<0.001). Bland-Altman plots and boxplots demonstrate smaller ranges in package C than in A and B. Significant differences were found between the packages about over- and underestimation of the ischemic core. Package A, compared with B and C, estimated more than twice as many patients with a malignant stroke profile (P<0.001). Package C best predicted hypoperfusion volume in nonsuccessfully recanalized patients. Our study demonstrates best accuracy and approximation between the results of a fully automated software (RAPID) and FIV, especially in early and fully recanalized patients. Furthermore, this software package overestimated the FIV to a significantly lower degree and estimated a malignant mismatch profile less often than other software. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  7. Sarcopenia predicts readmission and mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming; Hu, Xiaoyi; Wang, Haozhong; Zhang, Lei; Hao, Qiukui; Dong, Birong

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of sarcopenia and investigate the associations between sarcopenia and long-term mortality and readmission in a population of elderly inpatients in acute care wards. We conducted a prospective observational study in the acute care wards of a teaching hospital in western China. The muscle mass was estimated according to a previously validated anthropometric equation. Handgrip strength was measured with a handheld dynamometer, and physical performance was measured via a 4 m walking test. Sarcopenia was defined according to the recommended diagnostic algorithm of the Asia Working Group for Sarcopenia. The survival status and readmission information were obtained via telephone interviews at 12, 24, and 36 months during the 3 year follow-up period following the baseline investigation. Two hundred and eighty-eight participants (mean age: 81.1 ± 6.6 years) were included. Forty-nine participants (17.0%) were identified as having sarcopenia. This condition was similar in men and women (16.9% vs. 17.5%, respectively, P = 0.915). During the 3 year follow-up period, 49 men (22.7%) and 9 women (16.4%) died (P = 0.307). The mortality of sarcopenic participants was significantly increased compared with non-sarcopenic participants (40.8% vs. 17.1%, respectively, P sarcopenia was an independent predictor of 3 year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.49; 95% confidential interval: 1.25-4.95) and readmission (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81; 95% confidential interval: 1.17-2.80). Sarcopenia, which is evaluated by a combination of anthropometric measures, gait speed, and handgrip strength, is valuable to predict hospital readmission and long-term mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Society on Sarcopenia, Cachexia and Wasting Disorders.

  8. Interleukin-22 predicts severity and death in advanced liver cirrhosis: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kronenberger Bernd

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Interleukin-22 (IL-22, recently identified as a crucial parameter of pathology in experimental liver damage, may determine survival in clinical end-stage liver disease. Systematic analysis of serum IL-22 in relation to morbidity and mortality of patients with advanced liver cirrhosis has not been performed so far. Methods This is a prospective cohort study including 120 liver cirrhosis patients and 40 healthy donors to analyze systemic levels of IL-22 in relation to survival and hepatic complications. Results A total of 71% of patients displayed liver cirrhosis-related complications at study inclusion. A total of 23% of the patients died during a mean follow-up of 196 ± 165 days. Systemic IL-22 was detectable in 74% of patients but only in 10% of healthy donors (P P = 0.006, hepatorenal syndrome (P P = 0.001. Patients with elevated IL-22 (>18 pg/ml, n = 57 showed significantly reduced survival compared to patients with regular (≤18 pg/ml levels of IL-22 (321 days versus 526 days, P = 0.003. Other factors associated with reduced overall survival were high CRP (≥2.9 mg/dl, P = 0.005, hazard ratio (HR 0.314, confidence interval (CI (0.141 to 0.702, elevated serum creatinine (P = 0.05, HR 0.453, CI (0.203 to 1.012, presence of liver-related complications (P = 0.028, HR 0.258, CI (0.077 to 0.862, model of end stage liver disease (MELD score ≥20 (P = 0.017, HR 0.364, CI (0.159 to 0.835 and age (P = 0.011, HR 0.955, CI (0.922 to 0.989. Adjusted multivariate Cox proportional-hazards analysis identified elevated systemic IL-22 levels as independent predictors of reduced survival (P = 0.007, HR 0.218, CI (0.072 to 0.662. Conclusions In patients with liver cirrhosis, elevated systemic IL-22 levels are predictive for reduced survival independently from age, liver-related complications, CRP, creatinine and the MELD score. Thus, processes that lead to a rise in systemic interleukin-22 may be relevant for prognosis of advanced liver

  9. Editorial Commentary: Single-Image Slice Magnetic Resonance Imaging Assessments Do Not Predict 3-Dimensional Muscle Volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Jefferson C

    2016-01-01

    No single-image magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) assessment-Goutallier classification, Fuchs classification, or cross-sectional area-is predictive of whole-muscle volume or fatty atrophy of the supraspinatus or infraspinatus. Rather, 3-dimensional MRI measurement of whole-muscle volume and fat-free muscle volume is required and is associated with shoulder strength, which is clinically relevant. Three-dimensional MRI may represent a new gold standard for assessment of the rotator cuff musculature using imaging and may help to predict the feasibility of repair of a rotator cuff tear as well as the postoperative outcome. Unfortunately, 3-dimensional MRI assessment of muscle volume is labor intensive and is not widely available for clinical use. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Predicting Structure-Function Relations and Survival following Surgical and Bronchoscopic Lung Volume Reduction Treatment of Emphysema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondoñedo, Jarred R; Suki, Béla

    2017-02-01

    Lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) and bronchoscopic lung volume reduction (bLVR) are palliative treatments aimed at reducing hyperinflation in advanced emphysema. Previous work has evaluated functional improvements and survival advantage for these techniques, although their effects on the micromechanical environment in the lung have yet to be determined. Here, we introduce a computational model to simulate a force-based destruction of elastic networks representing emphysema progression, which we use to track the response to lung volume reduction via LVRS and bLVR. We find that (1) LVRS efficacy can be predicted based on pre-surgical network structure; (2) macroscopic functional improvements following bLVR are related to microscopic changes in mechanical force heterogeneity; and (3) both techniques improve aspects of survival and quality of life influenced by lung compliance, albeit while accelerating disease progression. Our model predictions yield unique insights into the microscopic origins underlying emphysema progression before and after lung volume reduction.

  11. An analytical model to predict the volume of sand during drilling and production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoof Gholami

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Sand production is an undesired phenomenon occurring in unconsolidated formations due to shear failure and hydrodynamic forces. There have been many approaches developed to predict sand production and prevent it by changing drilling or production strategies. However, assumptions involved in these approaches have limited their applications to very specific scenarios. In this paper, an elliptical model based on the borehole shape is presented to predict the volume of sand produced during the drilling and depletion stages of oil and gas reservoirs. A shape factor parameter is introduced to estimate the changes in the geometry of the borehole as a result of shear failure. A carbonate reservoir from the south of Iran with a solid production history is used to show the application of the developed methodology. Deriving mathematical equations for determination of the shape factor based on different failure criteria indicate that the effect of the intermediate principal stress should be taken into account to achieve an accurate result. However, it should be noticed that the methodology presented can only be used when geomechanical parameters are accurately estimated prior to the production stage when using wells and field data.

  12. Sarcopenia predicts 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Dong-Dong; Chen, Xiao-Xi; Chen, Xi-Yi; Wang, Su-Lin; Shen, Xian; Chen, Xiao-Lei; Yu, Zhen; Zhuang, Cheng-Le

    2016-11-01

    One-year mortality is vital for elderly oncologic patients undergoing surgery. Recent studies have demonstrated that sarcopenia can predict outcomes after major abdominal surgeries, but the association of sarcopenia and 1-year mortality has never been investigated in a prospective study. We conducted a prospective study of elderly patients (≥65 years) who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer from July 2014 to July 2015. Sarcopenia was determined by the measurements of muscle mass, handgrip strength, and gait speed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors associated with 1-year mortality. A total of 173 patients were included, in which 52 (30.1 %) patients were identified as having sarcopenia. Twenty-four (13.9 %) patients died within 1 year of surgery. Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia was an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an increased predictive power for 1-year mortality with the inclusion of sarcopenia, from 0.835 to 0.868. Solely low muscle mass was not predictive of 1-year mortality in the multivariate analysis. Sarcopenia is predictive of 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing gastric cancer surgery. The measurement of muscle function is important for sarcopenia as a preoperative assessment tool.

  13. Predicting early onset of intoxication versus drinking—A population-based prospective study of Norwegian adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frøydis Enstad

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Aims: Recent research suggests that early onset of intoxication (EOI may be of greater importance for a wide range of subsequent adverse outcomes than early drinking experiences without intoxication. However, research on antecedents of EOI is scarce. The present study identifies predictors of EOI and whether they differ from those of early onset of drinking (EOD. Methods: Data was drawn from the prospective Tracking Opportunities and Problems (TOPP study of Norwegian families (n=382, which followed up mothers and their children with six data collections from childhood (age 1.5 to adolescence (age 14.5. Self-reports from the adolescents (parenting practices, adolescent's conduct problems and friends' deviant behaviour and their mothers (adolescent temperament, socio-economic factors and household alcohol problems were used to identify predictors of EOI and EOD. Findings: A variety of temperamental, socio-economic, and family factors predicted EOI, whereas EOD was predicted of substantially fewer variables. Particularly, when controlling for relevant covariates, low levels of shyness, own conduct problems and having friends with deviant behaviour prospectively predicted EOI, but not EOD. Conclusions: Future research and prevention efforts should take into consideration that EOI and EOD without getting drunk appear to be predicted by different risk factors in childhood and adolescence. Keywords: Adolescents, Alcohol, Intoxication, Drinking, Onset, Predictors

  14. A Prospective Randomized Study of the Radiotherapy Volume for Limited-stage Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Preliminary Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao HU

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective Controversies exists with regard to target volumes as far as thoracic radiotherapy (TRT is concerned in the multimodality treatment for limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LSCLC. The aim of this study is to prospectively compare the local control rate, toxicity profiles, and overall survival (OS between patients received different target volumes irradiation after induction chemotherapy. Methods LSCLC patients received 2 cycles of etoposide and cisplatin (EP induction chemotherapy and were randomly assigned to receive TRT to either the post- or pre-chemotherapy tumor extent (GTV-T as study arm and control arm, CTV-N included the positive nodal drainage area for both arms. One to 2 weeks after induction chemotherapy, 45 Gy/30 Fx/19 d TRT was administered concurrently with the third cycle of EP regimen. After that, additional 3 cycles of EP consolidation were administered. Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI was administered to patients with a complete response. Results Thirty-seven and 40 patients were randomly assigned to study arm and control arm. The local recurrence rates were 32.4% and 28.2% respectively (P=0.80; the isolated nodal failure (INF rate were 3.0% and 2.6% respectively (P=0.91; all INF sites were in the ipsilateral supraclavicular fossa. Medastinal N3 disease was the risk factor for INF (P=0.02, OR=14.13, 95%CI: 1.47-136.13. During radiotherapy, grade I, II weight loss was observed in 29.4%, 5.9% and 56.4%, 7.7% patients respectively (P=0.04. Grade 0-I and II-III late pulmonary injury was developed in 97.1%, 2.9% and 86.4%, 15.4% patients respectively (P=0.07. Median survival time was 22.1 months and 26.9 months respectively. The 1 to 3-year OS were 77.9%, 44.4%, 37.3% and 75.8%, 56.3%, 41.7% respectively (P=0.79. Conclusion The preliminary results of this study indicate that irradiant the post-chemotherapy tumor extent (GTV-T and positive nodal drainage area did not decrease local control and overall

  15. Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 1; Setup_BFaNS User's Manual and Developer's Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Bruce L.

    2010-01-01

    Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the first volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User's Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by step-by-step instructions for installing and running Setup_BFaNS. It concludes with technical documentation of the Setup_BFaNS computer program.

  16. Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 2; BFaNS User's Manual and Developer's Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Bruce L.

    2010-01-01

    Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the second volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by step-by-step instructions for installing and running BFaNS. It concludes with technical documentation of the BFaNS computer program.

  17. A multicenter prospective cohort study of volume management after subarachnoid hemorrhage: circulatory characteristics of pulmonary edema after subarachnoid hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obata, Yoshiki; Takeda, Junichi; Sato, Yohei; Ishikura, Hiroyasu; Matsui, Toru; Isotani, Eiji

    2016-08-01

    OBJECT Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is often accompanied by pulmonary complications, which may lead to poor outcomes and death. This study investigated the incidence and cause of pulmonary edema in patients with SAH by using hemodynamic monitoring with PiCCO-plus pulse contour analysis. METHODS A total of 204 patients with SAH were included in a multicenter prospective cohort study to investigate hemodynamic changes after surgical clipping or coil embolization of ruptured cerebral aneurysms by using a PiCCO-plus device. Changes in various hemodynamic parameters after SAH were analyzed statistically. RESULTS Fifty-two patients (25.5%) developed pulmonary edema. Patients with pulmonary edema (PE group) were significantly older than those without pulmonary edema (non-PE group) (p = 0.017). The mean extravascular lung water index was significantly higher in the PE group than in the non-PE group throughout the study period. The pulmonary vascular permeability index (PVPI) was significantly higher in the PE group than in the non-PE group on Day 6 (p = 0.029) and Day 10 (p = 0.011). The cardiac index of the PE group was significantly decreased biphasically on Days 2 and 10 compared with that of the non-PE group. In the early phase (Days 1-5 after SAH), the daily water balance of the PE group was slightly positive. In the delayed phase (Days 6-14 after SAH), the serum C-reactive protein level and the global end-diastolic volume index were significantly higher in the PE group than in the non-PE group, whereas the PVPI tended to be higher in the PE group. CONCLUSIONS Pulmonary edema that occurs in the early and delayed phases after SAH is caused by cardiac failure and inflammatory (i.e., noncardiogenic) conditions, respectively. Measurement of the extravascular lung water index, cardiac index, and PVPI by PiCCO-plus monitoring is useful for identifying pulmonary edema in patients with SAH.

  18. Whole-brain perfusion CT using a toggling table technique to predict final infarct volume in acute ischemic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrader, I; Wilk, D; Jansen, O; Riedel, C

    2013-09-01

    To evaluate how accurately final infarct volume in acute ischemic stroke can be predicted with perfusion CT (PCT) using a 64-MDCT unit and the toggling table technique. Retrospective analysis of 89 patients with acute ischemic stroke who underwent CCT, CT angiography (CTA) and PCT using the "toggling table" technique within the first three hours after symptom onset. In patients with successful thrombolytic therapy (n = 48) and in those without effective thrombolytic therapy (n = 41), the infarct volume and the volume of the penumbra on PCT were compared to the infarct size on follow-up images (CT or MRI) performed within 8 days. The feasibility of complete infarct volume prediction by 8 cm cranio-caudal coverage was evaluated. The correlation between the volume of hypoperfusion on PCT defined by cerebral blood volume reduction and final infarct volume was strongest in patients with successful thrombolytic therapy with underestimation of the definite infarct volume by 8.5 ml on average. The CBV map had the greatest prognostic value. In patients without successful thrombolytic therapy, the final infarct volume was overestimated by 12.1 ml compared to the MTT map on PCT. All infarcts were detected completely. There were no false-positive or false-negative results. Using PCT and the "toggling table" technique in acute stroke patients is helpful for the rapid and accurate quantification of the minimal final infarct and is therefore a prognostic parameter which has to be evaluated in further studies to assess its impact on therapeutic decision. ▶ Using PCT and the “toggling table technique” allows accurate quantification of the infarct core and penumbra. ▶ It is possible to record dynamic perfusion parameters quickly and easily of almost the entire supratentorial brain volume on a 64-slice MDCT unit. ▶ The technique allows identification of those patients who could profit from thrombolytic therapy outside the established time intervals. © Georg Thieme Verlag

  19. Predicting adult pulmonary ventilation volume and wearing complianceby on-board accelerometry during personal level exposure assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodes, C. E.; Chillrud, S. N.; Haskell, W. L.; Intille, S. S.; Albinali, F.; Rosenberger, M. E.

    2012-09-01

    BackgroundMetabolic functions typically increase with human activity, but optimal methods to characterize activity levels for real-time predictions of ventilation volume (l min-1) during exposure assessments have not been available. Could tiny, triaxial accelerometers be incorporated into personal level monitors to define periods of acceptable wearing compliance, and allow the exposures (μg m-3) to be extended to potential doses in μg min-1 kg-1 of body weight? ObjectivesIn a pilot effort, we tested: 1) whether appropriately-processed accelerometer data could be utilized to predict compliance and in linear regressions to predict ventilation volumes in real-time as an on-board component of personal level exposure sensor systems, and 2) whether locating the exposure monitors on the chest in the breathing zone, provided comparable accelerometric data to other locations more typically utilized (waist, thigh, wrist, etc.). MethodsPrototype exposure monitors from RTI International and Columbia University were worn on the chest by a pilot cohort of adults while conducting an array of scripted activities (all volumes in-situ. For the subset of participants with complete data (n = 22), linear regressions were constructed (processed accelerometric variable versus ventilation rate) for each participant and exposure monitor type, and Pearson correlations computed to compare across scenarios. ResultsTriaxial accelerometer data were demonstrated to be adequately sensitive indicators for predicting exposure monitor wearing compliance. Strong linear correlations (R values from 0.77 to 0.99) were observed for all participants for both exposure sensor accelerometer variables against ventilation volume for recumbent, sedentary, and ambulatory activities with MET values ˜volume data. Computing accelerometric standard deviations allowed good sensitivity for compliance assessments even for sedentary activities. These pilot findings supported the hypothesis that a common linear

  20. Freshman year alcohol and marijuana use prospectively predict time to college graduation and subsequent adult roles and independence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhite, Emily R; Ashenhurst, James R; Marino, Elise N; Fromme, Kim

    2017-06-15

    This study examined how freshman year substance use prospectively predicted time to college graduation, and whether delayed graduation predicted postponed adoption of adult roles and future substance use. Participants were part of a longitudinal study that began in 2004. The first analyses focused on freshman year (N = 2,050). The second analyses corresponded to a subset of participants at age 27 (N = 575). Measures included self-reported substance use, adult role adoption, and university reported graduation dates. Results indicated that frequent binge drinking and marijuana use during freshman year predicted delayed college graduation. Those who took longer to graduate were more likely to have lower incomes and were less likely to obtain a graduate degree. Taking 5-6 years to graduate was associated with greater likelihood of alcohol-related problems. Findings support the importance of interventions during freshman year of college to decrease substance use and promote timely graduation.

  1. Energy prospects of France at the 2020-2050 vista. Reports of the Energy Commission working groups presided over by Jean Syrota - Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The two volumes of the Energy prospects of France at the 2020-2050 vista present the works carried out by the Energy commission, implemented in May 2006 by the Centre of Strategic Analysis and gathering the different actors in concern: representatives, social partners, national and European administrations, operators and industrialists, consumer associations, research organizations, etc.. The first volume is a synthesis while this second volume reprints the integral content of the five working group reports. This collective work fits inside a series of studies that the public authorities have periodically launched on the energy question. They have led to the elaboration of energy policies, still dominated by the hydrocarbon prices: ambitious and rigorous during high price eras, non-obstructive and relaxed during low price eras. Todays, the global warming dominates the energy policy. In this context, a large-scale and permanent new policy has become mandatory to reduce as quickly as possible the CO 2 emissions linked to the satisfaction of energy needs. It must definitely fit with the European framework as well. The Energy Commission recommends that France prevails upon the European Union to adopt a highly voluntaristic policy of greenhouse gases abatement at the 2050 prospects based on a fair share among the member states of the efforts to be achieved. This document includes a prospective analysis of the geopolitical situation, evaluates the technological efforts to come and lists some consistent action proposals for France and the European and national scale. (J.S.)

  2. Influence of department volume on survival for ovarian cancer: results from a prospective quality assurance program of the Austrian Association for Gynecologic Oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marth, Christian; Hiebl, Sonja; Oberaigner, Willi; Winter, Raimund; Leodolter, Sepp; Sevelda, Paul

    2009-01-01

    The Austrian Association for Gynecologic Oncology initiated in 1998 a prospective quality assurance program for patients with ovarian cancer. The aim of this study was to evaluate factors predicting overall survival especially under consideration of department volume. All Austrian gynecological departments were invited to participate in the quality assurance program. A questionnaire was sent out that included birth date, histology, date of diagnosis, stage, and basic information on primary treatment. Description of comorbidity was not requested. Patient life status was assessed in a passive way. We did record linkage between each patient's name and birth date and the official mortality data set collected by Statistics Austria. No data were available on progression-free survival. Patients treated between January 1, 1999 and December 31, 2004 were included in the analysis. Mortality dates were available to December 31, 2006. Data were analyzed by means of classical statistical methods. Cut-off point for departments was 24 patients per year. A total of 1948 patients were evaluable. Approximately 75% of them were treated at institutions with fewer than 24 new patients per year. Patient characteristics were grossly similar for both department types. Multivariate analysis confirmed established prognostic factors such as International Federation of Gynecologists and Obstetricians (FIGO) stage, lymphadenectomy, age, grading, and residual disease. In addition, we found small departments (<24 patients per year) to have a negative effect on overall survival (hazards ratio, 1.38: 95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.7; and P < 0.001). The results indicate that in Austria, rules prescribing minimum department case load can further improve survival for patients with ovarian cancer.

  3. Weekly Volume and Dosimetric Changes During Chemoradiotherapy With Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Cancer: A Prospective Observational Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhide, Shreerang A [Institute of Cancer Research, 237 Fulham Road, London SW6 6JB (United Kingdom); Head and Neck Unit, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London SW3 6JJ (United Kingdom); Davies, Mark; Burke, Kevin; McNair, Helen A; Hansen, Vibeke [Department of Radiation Oncology, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London and Sutton (United Kingdom); Barbachano, Y [Department of Statistics, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London and Sutton (United Kingdom); El-Hariry, I A [Head and Neck Unit, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London SW3 6JJ (United Kingdom); Newbold, Kate [Department of Radiation Oncology, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London and Sutton (United Kingdom); Harrington, Kevin J [Institute of Cancer Research, 237 Fulham Road, London SW6 6JB (United Kingdom); Head and Neck Unit, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London SW3 6JJ (United Kingdom); Nutting, Christopher M., E-mail: chris.nutting@rmh.nhs.u [Head and Neck Unit, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Hospital, London SW3 6JJ (United Kingdom)

    2010-04-15

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate prospectively the weekly volume changes in the target volumes and organs at risk and the resulting dosimetric changes during induction chemotherapy followed by chemoradiotherapy with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (C-IMRT) for head-and-neck cancer patients. Methods and Materials: Patients receiving C-IMRT for head-and-neck cancer had repeat CT scans at weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 during radiotherapy. The volume changes of clinical target volume 1 (CTV1) and CTV2 and the resulting dosimetric changes to planning target volume 1 (PTV1) and PTV2 and the organs at risk were measured. Results: The most significant volume differences were seen at week 2 for CTV1 and CTV2. The reductions in the volumes of CTV1 and CTV2 at week 2 were 3.2% and 10%, respectively (p = 0.003 and p < 0.001). The volume changes resulted in a significant reduction in the minimum dose to PTV1 and PTV2 (2 Gy, p = 0.002, and 3.9 Gy, p = 0.03, respectively) and an increased dose range across PTV1 and PTV2 (2.5 Gy, p < 0.001, and 5.1 Gy, p = 0.008, respectively). There was a 15% reduction in the parotid volumes by week 2 (p < 0.001) and 31% by week 4 (p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant increase in the mean dose to the ipsilateral parotid only at week 4 (2.7 Gy, p = 0.006). The parotid glands shifted medially by an average of 2.3 mm (p < 0.001) by week 4. Conclusion: The most significant volumetric changes and dosimetric alterations in the tumor volumes and organs at risk during a course of C-IMRT occur by week 2 of radiotherapy. Further adaptive radiotherapy with replanning, if appropriate, is recommended.

  4. The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-01-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

  5. The Role of Big Five Personality Traits in Predicting Prospective EFL Teachers' Academic Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkagac, Senay; Öz, Hüseyin

    2017-01-01

    This study sought to find out the possible relationships between personality traits and academic achievement of prospective English as a Foreign Language (EFL) teachers. A total of 200 university students from a major state university voluntarily participated in the study. Data were collected through the International Personality Item Tool (IPIP)…

  6. Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Altgassen, A.M.; Vetter, N.C.; Phillips, L.H.; Akgün, C.; Kliegel, M.

    2014-01-01

    Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether

  7. Predictive factors of postpartum fatigue: a prospective cohort study among working women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.; Beek, A.J. van der; Hendriksen, I.J.M.; Bruinvels, D.J.; Poppel, M.N. van

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate which prepartum determinants contribute to the development of postpartum (PP) fatigue among working women in the Netherlands. Methods A prospective cohort study in 15 Dutch companies was conducted to measure different potential predictors using

  8. Predicting oropharyngeal tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy from pretreatment computed tomography data using general linear models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this work was to develop and evaluate the accuracy of several predictive models of variation in tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Nineteen patients with oropharyngeal cancers were imaged daily with CT-on-rails for image-guided alignment per an institutional protocol. The daily volumes of 35 tumors in these 19 patients were determined and used to generate (1) a linear model in which tumor volume changed at a constant rate, (2) a general linear model that utilized the power fit relationship between the daily and initial tumor volumes, and (3) a functional general linear model that identified and exploited the primary modes of variation between time series describing the changing tumor volumes. Primary and nodal tumor volumes were examined separately. The accuracy of these models in predicting daily tumor volumes were compared with those of static and linear reference models using leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: In predicting the daily volume of primary tumors, the general linear model and the functional general linear model were more accurate than the static reference model by 9.9% (range: −11.6%–23.8%) and 14.6% (range: −7.3%–27.5%), respectively, and were more accurate than the linear reference model by 14.2% (range: −6.8%–40.3%) and 13.1% (range: −1.5%–52.5%), respectively. In predicting the daily volume of nodal tumors, only the 14.4% (range: −11.1%–20.5%) improvement in accuracy of the functional general linear model compared to the static reference model was statistically significant. Conclusions: A general linear model and a functional general linear model trained on data from a small population of patients can predict the primary tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy with greater accuracy than standard reference models. These more accurate models may increase the prognostic value of information about the tumor garnered from pretreatment computed tomography

  9. Utilizing Forced Vital Capacity to Predict Low Lung Compliance and Select Intraoperative Tidal Volume During Thoracic Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoftman, Nir; Eikermann, Eric; Shin, John; Buckley, Jack; Navab, Kaveh; Abtin, Fereidoun; Grogan, Tristan; Cannesson, Maxime; Mahajan, Aman

    2017-12-01

    Tidal volume selection during mechanical ventilation utilizes dogmatic formulas that only consider a patient's predicted body weight (PBW). In this study, we investigate whether forced vital capacity (FVC) (1) correlates better to total lung capacity (TLC) than PBW, (2) predicts low pulmonary compliance, and (3) provides an alternative method for tidal volume selection. One hundred thirty thoracic surgery patients had their preoperative TLC calculated via 2 methods: (1) pulmonary function test (PFT; TLCPFT) and (2) computed tomography 3D reconstruction (TLCCT). We compared the correlation between TLC and PBW with the correlation between TLC and FVC to determine which was stronger. Dynamic pulmonary compliance was then calculated from intraoperative ventilator data and logistic regression models constructed to determine which clinical measure best predicted low compliance. Ratios of tidal volume/FVC plotted against peak inspiratory pressure were utilized to construct a new model for tidal volume selection. Calculated tidal volumes generated by this model were then compared with those generated by the standard lung-protective formula Vt = 7 cc/kg. The correlation between FVC and TLC (0.82 for TLCPFT and 0.76 for TLCCT) was stronger than the correlation between PBW and TLC (0.65 for TLCPFT and 0.58 for TLCCT). Patients with very low compliance had significantly smaller lung volumes (forced expiratory volume at 1 second, FVC, TLC) and lower diffusion capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide when compared with patients with normal compliance. An FVC cutoff of 3470 cc was 100% sensitive and 51% specific for predicting low compliance. The proposed equation Vt = FVC/8 significantly reduced calculated tidal volume by a mean of 22.5% in patients with low pulmonary compliance without affecting the mean tidal volume in patients with normal compliance (mean difference 0.9%). FVC is more strongly correlated to TLC than PBW and a cutoff of about 3.5 L can be utilized to predict

  10. Critical Combinations of Radiation Dose and Volume Predict Intelligence Quotient and Academic Achievement Scores After Craniospinal Irradiation in Children With Medulloblastoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merchant, Thomas E., E-mail: thomas.merchant@stjude.org [Division of Radiation Oncology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Schreiber, Jane E. [Department of Psychology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Wu, Shengjie [Department of Biostatistcs, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Lukose, Renin [Division of Radiation Oncology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Xiong, Xiaoping [Department of Biostatistcs, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Gajjar, Amar [Department of Oncology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States)

    2014-11-01

    Purpose: To prospectively follow children treated with craniospinal irradiation to determine critical combinations of radiation dose and volume that would predict for cognitive effects. Methods and Materials: Between 1996 and 2003, 58 patients (median age 8.14 years, range 3.99-20.11 years) with medulloblastoma received risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation followed by dose-intense chemotherapy and were followed longitudinally with multiple cognitive evaluations (through 5 years after treatment) that included intelligence quotient (estimated intelligence quotient, full-scale, verbal, and performance) and academic achievement (math, reading, spelling) tests. Craniospinal irradiation consisted of 23.4 Gy for average-risk patients (nonmetastatic) and 36-39.6 Gy for high-risk patients (metastatic or residual disease >1.5 cm{sup 2}). The primary site was treated using conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy using a 2-cm clinical target volume margin. The effect of clinical variables and radiation dose to different brain volumes were modeled to estimate cognitive scores after treatment. Results: A decline with time for all test scores was observed for the entire cohort. Sex, race, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt status had a significant impact on baseline scores. Age and mean radiation dose to specific brain volumes, including the temporal lobes and hippocampi, had a significant impact on longitudinal scores. Dichotomized dose distributions at 25 Gy, 35 Gy, 45 Gy, and 55 Gy were modeled to show the impact of the high-dose volume on longitudinal test scores. The 50% risk of a below-normal cognitive test score was calculated according to mean dose and dose intervals between 25 Gy and 55 Gy at 10-Gy increments according to brain volume and age. Conclusions: The ability to predict cognitive outcomes in children with medulloblastoma using dose-effects models for different brain subvolumes will improve treatment planning, guide intervention, and help

  11. Critical Combinations of Radiation Dose and Volume Predict Intelligence Quotient and Academic Achievement Scores After Craniospinal Irradiation in Children With Medulloblastoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merchant, Thomas E.; Schreiber, Jane E.; Wu, Shengjie; Lukose, Renin; Xiong, Xiaoping; Gajjar, Amar

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To prospectively follow children treated with craniospinal irradiation to determine critical combinations of radiation dose and volume that would predict for cognitive effects. Methods and Materials: Between 1996 and 2003, 58 patients (median age 8.14 years, range 3.99-20.11 years) with medulloblastoma received risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation followed by dose-intense chemotherapy and were followed longitudinally with multiple cognitive evaluations (through 5 years after treatment) that included intelligence quotient (estimated intelligence quotient, full-scale, verbal, and performance) and academic achievement (math, reading, spelling) tests. Craniospinal irradiation consisted of 23.4 Gy for average-risk patients (nonmetastatic) and 36-39.6 Gy for high-risk patients (metastatic or residual disease >1.5 cm 2 ). The primary site was treated using conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy using a 2-cm clinical target volume margin. The effect of clinical variables and radiation dose to different brain volumes were modeled to estimate cognitive scores after treatment. Results: A decline with time for all test scores was observed for the entire cohort. Sex, race, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt status had a significant impact on baseline scores. Age and mean radiation dose to specific brain volumes, including the temporal lobes and hippocampi, had a significant impact on longitudinal scores. Dichotomized dose distributions at 25 Gy, 35 Gy, 45 Gy, and 55 Gy were modeled to show the impact of the high-dose volume on longitudinal test scores. The 50% risk of a below-normal cognitive test score was calculated according to mean dose and dose intervals between 25 Gy and 55 Gy at 10-Gy increments according to brain volume and age. Conclusions: The ability to predict cognitive outcomes in children with medulloblastoma using dose-effects models for different brain subvolumes will improve treatment planning, guide intervention, and help estimate

  12. Prostate-Specific Antigen Mass and Free Prostate-Specific Antigen Mass for Predicting the Prostate Volume of Korean Men With Biopsy-Proven Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Tae Yong; Chae, Ji Yun; Kim, Jong Wook; Kim, Jin Wook; Oh, Mi Mi; Yoon, Cheol Yong; Moon, Du Geon

    2013-01-01

    Purpose It has been reported that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) correlates with prostate volume. Recently, some studies have reported that PSA mass (PSA adjusted for plasma volume) is more accurate than PSA at predicting prostate volume. In this study, we analyzed the accuracy of PSA and the related parameters of PSA mass, free PSA (fPSA), and fPSA mass in predicting prostate volume. Materials and Methods We retrospectively investigated 658 patients who underwent prostate biopsy from 2006 t...

  13. Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chieh-Fan Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

  14. WE-AB-207B-12: Prospective Study of the Relationship Between Dose-Volume Clinical Toxicity and Patient Reported Outcomes in Lung Cancer Patients Treated with SBRT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mayyas, E; Vance, S; Brown, S; Liu, J; Kim, J; Zhen, S; Devpura, S; Ajlouni, M; Salim, S; Chetty, I; Movsas, B [Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To determine in a prospective study, the correlation between radiation dose/volume, clinical toxicities and patient-reported, quality of life (QOL) resulting from lung SBRT. Methods: For 106 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients receiving SBRT (12 Gy × 4), symptoms including cough, dyspnea, fatigue and pneumonitis were measured at baseline (before treatment), after treatment and 3, 6, and 12 months post-treatment. Toxicity was graded from zero to five. Dosimetric parameters such as the MLD, D10%, D20%, and lung subvolumes (V10 and V20) were obtained from the treatment plan. Dosimetric parameters and number of patients demonstrating toxicity ≥ grade 2 were tabulated. Linear regression analysis was used to calculate correlations between MLD and D10, D20, V10 and V20. Results: The percentages of patients with > grade 2 pneumonitis, fatigue, cough, and dyspnea over 3 to 12 months increased from 0.0% to 3.5%, 3.2% to 10.5%, 4.3% to 8.3%, and 10.8% to 18.8%, respectively. Computed dose indices D10%, D20% were 7.9±4.8 Gy and 3.0±2.3 Gy, respectively. MLD ranged from 0.34 Gy up to 9.9 Gy with overall average 3.0±1.7 Gy. The averages of the subvolumes V10 and V20 were respectively 8.9±5.3% and 3.0±2.4%. The linear regression analysis showed that V10 and D10 demonstrated the strongest correlation to MLD; R2= 0.92 and 0.87, respectively. V20, and D20 were also strongly correlated with MLD; R2 = 0.81 and 0.84 respectively. A correlation was also found to exist between MLD > 2 Gy and ≥ grade 2 cough and dyspnea. Subvolume values for 2Gy MLD were 5.3% for V10 and 2% for V20. Conclusion: Dosimetric indices: MLD ≥ 2Gy, D10 ≥ 5Gy and V10 ≥ 5% of the total lung volume were predictive of > grade 2 cough and dyspnea QOL data. The QOL results are a novel component of this work. acknowledgement of the Varian grant support.

  15. Early changes of parotid density and volume predict modifications at the end of therapy and intensity of acute xerostomia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belli, Maria Luisa; Broggi, Sara [Ospedale San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Medical Physics, Milano (Italy); Scalco, Elisa; Rizzo, Giovanna [CNR, Istituto di Bioimmagini e Fisiologia Molecolare, Milano (Italy); Sanguineti, Giuseppe [Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Department of Radiation Oncology, Rome (Italy); Fiorino, Claudio; Cattaneo, Giovanni Mauro [Ospedale San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Medical Physics, Milano (Italy); CNR, Istituto di Bioimmagini e Fisiologia Molecolare, Milano (Italy); Dinapoli, Nicola; Valentini, Vincenzo [Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Radiotherapy, Rome (Italy); Ricchetti, Francesco [Ospedale Sacro Cuore, Radiotherapy, Negrar (Italy)

    2014-11-15

    To quantitatively assess the predictive power of early variations of parotid gland volume and density on final changes at the end of therapy and, possibly, on acute xerostomia during IMRT for head-neck cancer. Data of 92 parotids (46 patients) were available. Kinetics of the changes during treatment were described by the daily rate of density (rΔρ) and volume (rΔvol) variation based on weekly diagnostic kVCT images. Correlation between early and final changes was investigated as well as the correlation with prospective toxicity data (CTCAEv3.0) collected weekly during treatment for 24/46 patients. A higher rΔρ was observed during the first compared to last week of treatment (-0,50 vs -0,05HU, p-value = 0.0001). Based on early variations, a good estimation of the final changes may be obtained (Δρ: AUC = 0.82, p = 0.0001; Δvol: AUC = 0.77, p = 0.0001). Both early rΔρ and rΔvol predict a higher ''mean'' acute xerostomia score (≥ median value, 1.57; p-value = 0.01). Median early density rate changes for patients with mean xerostomia score ≥ / < 1.57 were -0.98 vs -0.22 HU/day respectively (p = 0.05). Early density and volume variations accurately predict final changes of parotid glands. A higher longitudinally assessed score of acute xerostomia is well predicted by higher rΔρ and rΔvol in the first two weeks of treatment: best cut-off values were -0.50 HU/day and -380 mm{sup 3}/day for rΔρ and rΔvol respectively. Further studies are necessary to definitively assess the potential of early density/volume changes in identifying more sensitive patients at higher risk of experiencing xerostomia. (orig.) [German] Ziel der Studie ist die Untersuchung der praediktiven Aussagekraft von fruehen Veraenderungen in Volumen und Dichte der Ohrspeicheldruese in Bezug auf die finale Verformung zum Ende der Therapie sowie das Risiko von Xerostomie waehrend der intesitaetsmodulierten Strahlentherapie (IMRT) bei Kopf und Hals Tumoren. Die Studie

  16. Frequency Domain Computer Programs for Prediction and Analysis of Rail Vehicle Dynamics : Volume 1. Technical Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-12-01

    Frequency domain computer programs developed or acquired by TSC for the analysis of rail vehicle dynamics are described in two volumes. Volume I defines the general analytical capabilities required for computer programs applicable to single rail vehi...

  17. Microcomputer based program for predicting heat transfer under reactor accident conditions. Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, S.C.; Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K.H.; Wong, Y.L.; Nguyen, C.

    1987-07-01

    A microcomputer based program called Heat Transfer Prediction Software (HTPS) has been developed. It calculates the heat transfer for the tube and bundle geometries for steady state and transient conditions. This program is capable of providing the best estimated of the hot pin temperatures during slow transients for 37- and 28-element CANDU type fuel bundles. The program is designed for an IBM-PC AT/XT (or IBM-PC compatible computer) equipped with a Math Co-processor. The following input parameters are required: pressure, mass flux, hydraulic diameter, and quality. For the steady state case, the critical heat flux (CHF), the critical heat flux temperature, the minimum film boiling temperature, and the minimum film boiling heat flux are the primary outputs. With either the surface heat flux or wall temperature specified, the program determines the heat transfer regime and calculates the surface heat flux, wall temperatures and heat transfer coefficient. For the slow transient case, the pressure, mass flux, quality, and volumetric heat generation rate are the time dependent input parameters required to calculate the hot pin sheath temperatures and surface heat fluxes. A simple routine for generating properties has been developed for light water to support the above program. It contains correlations that have been verified for pressures ranging from 0.6kPa to 30 MPa, and temperatures up to 1100 degrees Celcius. The thermodynamic and transport properties that can be generated from this routine are: density, specific volume, enthalpy, specific heat capacity, conductivity, viscosity, surface tension and Prandtl number for saturated liquid, saturated vapour, subcooled liquid for superheated vapour. A software for predicting flow regime has also been developed. It determines the flow pattern at specific flow conditions, and provides a correction factor for calculating the CHF during partially stratified horizontal flow. The technical bases for the program and its

  18. Microcomputer based program for predicting heat transfer under reactor accident conditions. Volume II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, S.C.; Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K.H.; Wong, Y.L.; Nguyen, C.

    1987-07-01

    A microcomputer based program called Heat Transfer Prediction Software (HTPS) has been developed. It calculates the heat transfer for tube and bundle geometries for steady state and transient conditions. This program is capable of providing the best estimated of the hot pin temperatures during slow transients for 37- and 28-element CANDU type fuel bundles. The program is designed for an IBM-PC AT/XT (or IBM-PC compatible computer) equipped with a Math Co-processor. The following input parameters are required: pressure, mass flux, hydraulic diameter, and quality. For the steady state case, the critical heat flux (CHF), the critical heat flux temperature, the minimum film boiling temperature, and the minimum film boiling heat flux are the primary outputs. With either the surface heat flux or wall temperature specified, the program determines the heat transfer regime and calculates the surface heat flux, wall temperature and heat transfer coefficient. For the slow transient case, the pressure, mass flux, quality, and volumetric heat generation rate are the time dependent input parameters are required to calculate the hot pin sheath temperatures and surface heat fluxes. A simple routine for generating properties has been developed for light water to support the above program. It contains correlations that have been verified for pressures ranging from 0.6kPa to 30 MPa, and temperatures up to 1100 degrees Celcius. The thermodynamic and transport properties that can be generated from this routine are: density, specific volume, enthalpy, specific heat capacity, conductivity, viscosity, surface tension and Prandtle number for saturated liquid, saturated vapour, subcooled liquid of superheated vapour. A software for predicting flow regime has also been developed. It determines the flow pattern at specific flow conditions, and provides a correction factor for calculating the CHF during partially stratified horizontal flow. The technical bases for the program and its structure

  19. Prospective validation of a predictive model that identifies homeless people at risk of re-presentation to the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Gaye; Hepworth, Graham; Weiland, Tracey; Manias, Elizabeth; Gerdtz, Marie Frances; Kelaher, Margaret; Dunt, David

    2012-02-01

    To prospectively evaluate the accuracy of a predictive model to identify homeless people at risk of representation to an emergency department. A prospective cohort analysis utilised one month of data from a Principal Referral Hospital in Melbourne, Australia. All visits involving people classified as homeless were included, excluding those who died. Homelessness was defined as living on the streets, in crisis accommodation, in boarding houses or residing in unstable housing. Rates of re-presentation, defined as the total number of visits to the same emergency department within 28 days of discharge from hospital, were measured. Performance of the risk screening tool was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and likelihood ratios. Over the study period (April 1, 2009 to April 30, 2009), 3298 presentations from 2888 individuals were recorded. The homeless population accounted for 10% (n=327) of all visits and 7% (n=211) of all patients. A total of 90 (43%) homeless people re-presented to the emergency department. The predictive model included nine variables and achieved 98% (CI, 0.92-0.99) sensitivity and 66% (CI, 0.57-0.74) specificity. The positive predictive value was 68% and the negative predictive value was 98%. The positive likelihood ratio 2.9 (CI, 2.2-3.7) and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.03 (CI, 0.01-0.13). The high emergency department re-presentation rate for people who were homeless identifies unresolved psychosocial health needs. The emergency department remains a vital access point for homeless people, particularly after hours. The risk screening tool is key to identify medical and social aspects of a homeless patient's presentation to assist early identification and referral. Copyright © 2012 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Premorbid teacher-rated social functioning predicts adult schizophrenia-spectrum disorder: A high-risk prospective investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsuji, Thomas; Kline, Emily; Sorensen, Holger J.

    2013-01-01

    Social functioning deficits are a core component of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and may emerge years prior to the onset of diagnosable illness. The current study prospectively examines the relation between teacher-rated childhood social dysfunction and later mental illness among participants...... who were at genetic high-risk for schizophrenia and controls (n=244). The teacher-rated social functioning scale significantly predicted psychiatric outcomes (schizophrenia-spectrum vs. other psychiatric disorder vs. no mental illness). Poor premorbid social functioning appears to constitute a marker...

  1. Preliminary environmental assessment of selected geopressured - geothermal prospect areas: Louisiana Gulf Coast Region. Volume II. Environmental baseline data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newchurch, E.J.; Bachman, A.L.; Bryan, C.F.; Harrison, D.P.; Muller, R.A.; Newman, J.P. Jr.; Smith, C.G. Jr.; Bailey, J.I. Jr.; Kelly, G.G.; Reibert, K.C.

    1978-10-15

    A separate section is presented for each of the six prospect areas studied. Each section includes a compilation and discussion of environmental baseline data derived from existing sources. The data are arranged as follows: geology and geohydrology, air quality, water resources and flood hazards, ecological systems, and land use. When data specific to the prospect were not available, regional data are reported. (MHR)

  2. Stochastic model prediction of the Kovacs' ``expansion gap'' effect for volume relaxation in glassy polymers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvedev, Grigori; Caruthers, James

    2015-03-01

    The classic series of experiments by A. Kovacs on volume relaxation following temperature jumps for poly(vinyl acetate), PVAc, in the Tg region revealed the richness and complexity of the viscoelastic behavior of glassy materials. Over the years no theoretical model has been able to predict all the features of the Kovacs data, where the so-called ``expansion gap'' effect proved to be particularly challenging. Specifically, for a series of up-jump experiments with different initial temperatures, Ti, but with the same final temperature, as the relaxation approaches equilibrium it would be expected that the effective relaxation time would be the same regardless of Ti; however, Kovacs observed that the dependence on Ti persisted seemingly all the way to equilibrium. In this communication we will show that a recently developed Stochastic Constitutive Model (SCM) that explicitly acknowledges the nano-scale dynamic heterogeneity of glasses can capture the ``expansion gap'' as well as the rest of the Kovacs data set for PVAc. It will be shown that the success of the SCM is due to its inherent thermo-rheological complexity.

  3. Predicting biopharmaceutical performance of oral drug candidates - Extending the volume to dissolve applied dose concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muenster, Uwe; Mueck, Wolfgang; van der Mey, Dorina; Schlemmer, Karl-Heinz; Greschat-Schade, Susanne; Haerter, Michael; Pelzetter, Christian; Pruemper, Christian; Verlage, Joerg; Göller, Andreas H; Ohm, Andreas

    2016-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to experimentally deduce pH-dependent critical volumes to dissolve applied dose (VDAD) that determine whether a drug candidate can be developed as immediate release (IR) tablet containing crystalline API, or if solubilization technology is needed to allow for sufficient oral bioavailability. pH-dependent VDADs of 22 and 83 compounds were plotted vs. the relative oral bioavailability (AUC solid vs. AUC solution formulation, Frel) in humans and rats, respectively. Furthermore, in order to investigate to what extent Frel rat may predict issues with solubility limited absorption in human, Frel rat was plotted vs. Frel human. Additionally, the impact of bile salts and lecithin on in vitro dissolution of poorly soluble compounds was tested and data compared to Frel rat and human. Respective in vitro - in vivo and in vivo - in vivo correlations were generated and used to build developability criteria. As a result, based on pH-dependent VDAD, Frel rat and in vitro dissolution in simulated intestinal fluid the IR formulation strategy within Pharmaceutical Research and Development organizations can be already set at late stage of drug discovery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Predicting traffic volumes and estimating the effects of shocks in massive transportation systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Ricardo; Kang, Soong Moon; Airoldi, Edoardo M

    2015-05-05

    Public transportation systems are an essential component of major cities. The widespread use of smart cards for automated fare collection in these systems offers a unique opportunity to understand passenger behavior at a massive scale. In this study, we use network-wide data obtained from smart cards in the London transport system to predict future traffic volumes, and to estimate the effects of disruptions due to unplanned closures of stations or lines. Disruptions, or shocks, force passengers to make different decisions concerning which stations to enter or exit. We describe how these changes in passenger behavior lead to possible overcrowding and model how stations will be affected by given disruptions. This information can then be used to mitigate the effects of these shocks because transport authorities may prepare in advance alternative solutions such as additional buses near the most affected stations. We describe statistical methods that leverage the large amount of smart-card data collected under the natural state of the system, where no shocks take place, as variables that are indicative of behavior under disruptions. We find that features extracted from the natural regime data can be successfully exploited to describe different disruption regimes, and that our framework can be used as a general tool for any similar complex transportation system.

  5. Regional differences in brain volume predict the acquisition of skill in a complex real-time strategy videogame.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basak, Chandramallika; Voss, Michelle W; Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Kramer, Arthur F

    2011-08-01

    Previous studies have found that differences in brain volume among older adults predict performance in laboratory tasks of executive control, memory, and motor learning. In the present study we asked whether regional differences in brain volume as assessed by the application of a voxel-based morphometry technique on high resolution MRI would also be useful in predicting the acquisition of skill in complex tasks, such as strategy-based video games. Twenty older adults were trained for over 20 h to play Rise of Nations, a complex real-time strategy game. These adults showed substantial improvements over the training period in game performance. MRI scans obtained prior to training revealed that the volume of a number of brain regions, which have been previously associated with subsets of the trained skills, predicted a substantial amount of variance in learning on the complex game. Thus, regional differences in brain volume can predict learning in complex tasks that entail the use of a variety of perceptual, cognitive and motor processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Prediction of Currency Volume Issued in Taiwan Using a Hybrid Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Regression Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuehjen E. Shao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Because the volume of currency issued by a country always affects its interest rate, price index, income levels, and many other important macroeconomic variables, the prediction of currency volume issued has attracted considerable attention in recent years. In contrast to the typical single-stage forecast model, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting approach to predict the volume of currency issued in Taiwan. The proposed hybrid models consist of artificial neural network (ANN and multiple regression (MR components. The MR component of the hybrid models is established for a selection of fewer explanatory variables, wherein the selected variables are of higher importance. The ANN component is then designed to generate forecasts based on those important explanatory variables. Subsequently, the model is used to analyze a real dataset of Taiwan's currency from 1996 to 2011 and twenty associated explanatory variables. The prediction results reveal that the proposed hybrid scheme exhibits superior forecasting performance for predicting the volume of currency issued in Taiwan.

  7. A principal component approach for predicting the stem volume in Eucalyptus plantations in Brazil using airborne LiDAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlos Alberto Silva; Carine Klauberg; Andrew T. Hudak; Lee A. Vierling; Veraldo Liesenberg; Samuel P. C. e Carvalho; Luiz C. E. Rodriguez

    2016-01-01

    Improving management practices in industrial forest plantations may increase production efficiencies, thereby reducing pressures on native tropical forests for meeting global pulp needs. This study aims to predict stem volume (V) in plantations of fast-growing Eucalyptus hybrid clones located in southeast Brazil using field plot and airborne Light Detection...

  8. Relationship between Plasma D-Dimer Concentration and Three-Dimensional Ultrasound Placental Volume in Women at Risk for Placental Vascular Diseases: A Monocentric Prospective Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Fanget

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to correlate placental volumes deduced from three-dimensional ultrasound and virtual organ computer-aided analysis (VOCAL software with systemic concentrations of D-dimer and soluble endothelial protein C receptor (sEPCR.This was a monocentric experimental prospective study conducted from October 2008 to July 2009. Forty consecutive patients at risk of placental vascular pathology (PVP recurrence or occurrence were included. Placental volumes were systematically measured three times (11-14, 16-18 and 20-22 weeks of gestation (WG by two independent sonographers. D-dimers and sEPCR plasma concentrations were measured using ELISA kits (Enzyme Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay.Eleven patients had a PVP. The plasma D-dimer level was positively correlated with placental volume (r = 0.45, p < 0.001. A smaller placental volume and placental quotient was evidenced in women who developed a PVP at the three gestational ages, and the difference was more pronounced during the third exam (20 WG. No obvious correlation could be demonstrated between the development of a PVP and the levels of D-dimer and sEPCR. There was no significant difference in the values of placental volumes measured by the two sonographers.The placenta growth could be a major determinant of the elevation of D-dimer during pregnancy. Consideration of placental volume could allow for modulation of the D-dimer concentrations for restoring their clinical interest.

  9. Combined low-volume polyethylene glycol solution plus stimulant laxatives versus standard-volume polyethylene glycol solution: A prospective, randomized study of colon cleansing before colonoscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hookey, Lawrence C; Depew, William T; Vanner, Stephen J

    2006-01-01

    INTRODUCTION The effectiveness of polyethylene glycol solutions (PEG) for colon cleansing is often limited by the inability of patients to drink adequate portions of the 4 L solution. The aim of the present study was to determine whether a reduced volume of PEG combined with stimulant laxatives would be better tolerated and as or more effective than the standard dose. METHODS Patients undergoing outpatient colonoscopy were randomly assigned to receive either low-volume PEG plus sennosides (120 mg oral sennosides syrup followed by 2 L PEG) or the standard volume preparation (4 L PEG). The subjects rated the tolerability of the preparations and their symptoms. Colonoscopists were blind to the colonic cleansing preparation and graded the cleansing efficacy using a validated tool (the Ottawa scale). RESULTS The low-volume PEG plus sennosides preparation was significantly better tolerated than the standard large volume PEG (Psennosides preparation was better tolerated, it was not as effective as standard large-volume PEG. However, in view of the significant difference in tolerance, further research investigating possible improvements in the reduced-volume regimen seems warranted. PMID:16482236

  10. Understanding PSA and its derivatives in prediction of tumor volume: Addressing health disparities in prostate cancer risk stratification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinea, Felix M; Lyapichev, Kirill; Epstein, Jonathan I; Kwon, Deukwoo; Smith, Paul Taylor; Pollack, Alan; Cote, Richard J; Kryvenko, Oleksandr N

    2017-03-28

    To address health disparities in risk stratification of U.S. Hispanic/Latino men by characterizing influences of prostate weight, body mass index, and race/ethnicity on the correlation of PSA derivatives with Gleason score 6 (Grade Group 1) tumor volume in a diverse cohort. Using published PSA density and PSA mass density cutoff values, men with higher body mass indices and prostate weights were less likely to have a tumor volume PSA derivatives when predicting for tumor volume. In receiver operator characteristic analysis, area under the curve values for all PSA derivatives varied across race/ethnicity with lower optimal cutoff values for Hispanic/Latino (PSA=2.79, PSA density=0.06, PSA mass=0.37, PSA mass density=0.011) and Non-Hispanic Black (PSA=3.75, PSA density=0.07, PSA mass=0.46, PSA mass density=0.008) compared to Non-Hispanic White men (PSA=4.20, PSA density=0.11 PSA mass=0.53, PSA mass density=0.014). We retrospectively analyzed 589 patients with low-risk prostate cancer at radical prostatectomy. Pre-operative PSA, patient height, body weight, and prostate weight were used to calculate all PSA derivatives. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each PSA derivative per racial/ethnic group to establish optimal cutoff values predicting for tumor volume ≥0.5 cm3. Increasing prostate weight and body mass index negatively influence PSA derivatives for predicting tumor volume. PSA derivatives' ability to predict tumor volume varies significantly across race/ethnicity. Hispanic/Latino and Non-Hispanic Black men have lower optimal cutoff values for all PSA derivatives, which may impact risk assessment for prostate cancer.

  11. Estimation of brachial artery volume flow by duplex ultrasound imaging predicts dialysis access maturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Sae Hee; Bandyk, Dennis F; Hodgkiss-Harlow, Kelley D; Barleben, Andrew; Lane, John

    2015-06-01

    This study validated duplex ultrasound measurement of brachial artery volume flow (VF) as predictor of dialysis access flow maturation and successful hemodialysis. Duplex ultrasound was used to image upper extremity dialysis access anatomy and estimate access VF within 1 to 2 weeks of the procedure. Correlation of brachial artery VF with dialysis access conduit VF was performed using a standardized duplex testing protocol in 75 patients. The hemodynamic data were used to develop brachial artery flow velocity criteria (peak systolic velocity and end-diastolic velocity) predictive of three VF categories: low (800 mL/min). Brachial artery VF was then measured in 148 patients after a primary (n = 86) or revised (n = 62) upper extremity dialysis access procedure, and the VF category correlated with access maturation or need for revision before hemodialysis usage. Access maturation was conferred when brachial artery VF was >600 mL/min and conduit imaging indicated successful cannulation based on anatomic criteria of conduit diameter >5 mm and skin depth 800 mL/min was predicted when the brachial artery lumen diameter was >4.5 mm, peak systolic velocity was >150 cm/s, and the diastolic-to-systolic velocity ratio was >0.4. Brachial artery velocity spectra indicating VF 800 mL/min. Duplex testing to estimate brachial artery VF and assess the conduit for ease of cannulation can be performed in 5 minutes during the initial postoperative vascular clinic evaluation. Estimation of brachial artery VF using the duplex ultrasound, termed the "Fast, 5-min Dialysis Duplex Scan," facilitates patient evaluation after new or revised upper extremity dialysis access procedures. Brachial artery VF correlates with access VF measurements and has the advantage of being easier to perform and applicable for forearm and also arm dialysis access. When brachial artery velocity spectra criteria confirm a VF >800 mL/min, flow maturation and successful hemodialysis are predicted if anatomic criteria

  12. Accuracy and Predictability of PANC-3 Scoring System over APACHE II in Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathnakar, Surag Kajoor; Vishnu, Vikram Hubbanageri; Muniyappa, Shridhar; Prasath, Arun

    2017-02-01

    Acute Pancreatitis (AP) is one of the common conditions encountered in the emergency room. The course of the disease ranges from mild form to severe acute form. Most of these episodes are mild and spontaneously subsiding within 3 to 5 days. In contrast, Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP) occurring in around 15-20% of all cases, mortality can range between 10 to 85% across various centres and countries. In such a situation we need an indicator which can predict the outcome of an attack, as severe or mild, as early as possible and such an indicator should be sensitive and specific enough to trust upon. PANC-3 scoring is such a scoring system in predicting the outcome of an attack of AP. To assess the accuracy and predictability of PANC-3 scoring system over APACHE II in predicting severity in an attack of AP. This prospective study was conducted on 82 patients admitted with the diagnosis of pancreatitis. Investigations to evaluate PANC-3 and APACHE II were done on all the patients and the PANC-3 and APACHE II score was calculated. PANC-3 score has a sensitivity of 82.6% and specificity of 77.9%, the test had a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 0.59 and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 0.92. Sensitivity of APACHE II in predicting SAP was 91.3% and specificity was 96.6% with PPV of 0.91, NPV was 0.96. Our study shows that PANC-3 can be used to predict the severity of pancreatitis as efficiently as APACHE II. The interpretation of PANC-3 does not need expertise and can be applied at the time of admission which is an advantage when compared to classical scoring systems.

  13. A Study on Pharmacokinetics of Bosentan with Systems Modeling, Part 2: Prospectively Predicting Systemic and Liver Exposure in Healthy Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rui; Kimoto, Emi; Niosi, Mark; Tess, David A; Lin, Jian; Tremaine, Larry M; Di, Li

    2018-04-01

    Predicting human pharmacokinetics of novel compounds is a critical step in drug discovery and clinical study design but continues to be a challenging task for hepatic transporter substrates, particularly in predicting their liver exposures. In this study, using bosentan as an example, we prospectively predicted systemic exposure and the (pseudo) steady-state unbound liver-to-unbound plasma ratio ( K p uu ) in healthy subjects using 1) a mechanistic approach solely based on in vitro hepatocyte assays and 2) an approach based on hepatic process rates from monkey in vivo data but Michaelis-Menten constants from in vitro data. Both methods reasonably match the observed human systemic time course data, but the second method leads to better prediction accuracy. In addition, the second method can predict a human K p uu value that is close to the value deduced using clinical data. We also generated rat and monkey liver K p uu values in terminal studies. However, these directly measured animal values are different from the deduced human value. Copyright © 2018 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

  14. The predictive value of the product of contrast medium volume and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio in contrast-induced acute kidney injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chunrui; Ma, Shuai; Deng, Bo; Lu, Jianxin; Shen, Wei; Jin, Bo; Shi, Haiming; Ding, Feng

    2017-11-01

    Preexisting renal impairment and the amount of contrast media are the most important risk factors for contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI). We aimed to investigate whether the product of contrast medium volume and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (CMV × UACR) would be a better predictor of CI-AKI in patients undergoing nonemergency coronary interventions. This was a prospective single-center observational study, and 912 consecutive patients who were exposed to contrast media during coronary interventions were investigated prospectively. CI-AKI is defined as a 44.2 μmol/L rise in serum creatinine or a 25% increase, assessed within 48 h after administration of contrast media in the absence of other causes. Fifty patients (5.48%) developed CI-AKI. The urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) (OR = 1.002, 95% CI = 1.000-1.003, p = .012) and contrast medium volume (CMV) (OR = 1.008, 95% CI = 1.001-1.014, p = .017) were independent risk factors for the development of CI-AKI. The area under the ROC curve of CMV, UACR and CMV × UACR were 0.662 (95% CI = 0.584-0.741, p < .001), 0.761 (95% CI = 0.674-0.847, p < .001) and 0.808 (95% CI = 0.747-0.896, p < .001), respectively. The cutoff value of CMV × UACR to predict CI-AKI was 1186.2, with 80.0% sensitivity and 62.2% specificity. The product of CMV and UACR (CMV × UACR) might be a predictor of CI-AKI in patients undergoing nonemergency coronary interventions, which was superior to CMV or UACR alone.

  15. Plasma uric acid and tumor volume are highly predictive of outcome in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients receiving intensity modulated radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Hui; Lin, Huan-Xin; Ge, Nan; Wang, Hong-Zhi; Sun, Rui; Hu, Wei-Han

    2013-01-01

    The combined predictive value of plasma uric acid and primary tumor volume in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients receiving intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) has not yet been determined. In this retrospective study, plasma uric acid level was measured after treatment in 130 histologically-proven NPC patients treated with IMRT. Tumor volume was calculated from treatment planning CT scans. Overall (OS), progression-free (PFS) and distant metastasis-free (DMFS) survival were compared using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log rank test, and Cox multivariate and univariate regression models were created. Patients with a small tumor volume (<27 mL) had a significantly better DMFS, PFS and OS than patients with a large tumor volume. Patients with a high post-treatment plasma uric acid level (>301 μmol/L) had a better DMFS, PFS and OS than patients with a low post-treatment plasma uric acid level. Patients with a small tumor volume and high post-treatment plasma uric acid level had a favorable prognosis compared to patients with a large tumor volume and low post-treatment plasma uric acid level (7-year overall OS, 100% vs. 48.7%, P <0.001 and PFS, 100% vs. 69.5%, P <0.001). Post-treatment plasma uric acid level and pre-treatment tumor volume have predictive value for outcome in NPC patients receiving IMRT. NPC patients with a large tumor volume and low post-treatment plasma uric acid level may benefit from additional aggressive treatment after IMRT

  16. Information processing biases concurrently and prospectively predict depressive symptoms in adolescents: Evidence from a self-referent encoding task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Samantha L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2016-01-01

    Negative information processing biases have been hypothesised to serve as precursors for the development of depression. The current study examined negative self-referent information processing and depressive symptoms in a community sample of adolescents (N = 291, Mage at baseline = 12.34 ± 0.61, 53% female, 47.4% African-American, 49.5% Caucasian and 3.1% Biracial). Participants completed a computerised self-referent encoding task (SRET) and a measure of depressive symptoms at baseline and completed an additional measure of depressive symptoms nine months later. Several negative information processing biases on the SRET were associated with concurrent depressive symptoms and predicted increases in depressive symptoms at follow-up. Findings partially support the hypothesis that negative information processing biases are associated with depressive symptoms in a nonclinical sample of adolescents, and provide preliminary evidence that these biases prospectively predict increases in depressive symptoms.

  17. Utility of the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior for predicting physician behavior: a prospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millstein, S G

    1996-09-01

    The utility of the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB) for prospectively predicting physicians' delivery of preventive services was compared. Primary care physicians (N = 765) completed 2 mail surveys at periods 6 months apart. The addition of perceived behavioral control to the TRA model significantly increased the variance accounted for in behavioral intention and subsequent behavior (p behavioral control had direct effects on behavior and interacted with social norms and behavioral intentions. Applications of models such as the TRA or TPB have focused primarily on predicting the behavioral intentions and behaviors of patients. Results suggest that these models have relevance for studying the behavior of health care providers as well.

  18. Does dairy food intake predict arterial stiffness and blood pressure in men?: Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, Katherine M; Lovegrove, Julie A; Cockcroft, John R; Elwood, Peter C; Pickering, Janet E; Givens, D Ian

    2013-01-01

    Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease events and mortality, and like blood pressure, may be influenced by dairy food intake. Few studies have investigated the effects of consumption of these foods on prospective measures of arterial stiffness. The present analysis aimed to investigate the prospective relationship between milk, cheese, cream, and butter consumption and aortic pulse wave velocity, augmentation index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, as well as cross-sectional relationships between these foods and systolic and diastolic blood pressure and metabolic markers using data from the Caerphilly Prospective Study. Included in this cohort were 2512 men, aged 45 to 59 years, who were followed up at 5-year intervals for a mean of 22.8 years (number follow-up 787). Augmentation index was 1.8% lower in subjects in the highest quartiles of dairy product intake compared with the lowest (P trend=0.021), whereas in the highest group of milk consumption systolic blood pressure was 10.4 mm Hg lower (P trend=0.033) than in nonmilk consumers after a 22.8-year follow-up. Cross-sectional analyses indicated that across increasing quartiles of butter intake, insulin (P trend=0.011), triacylglycerol (P trend=0.023), total cholesterol (P trend=0.002), and diastolic blood pressure (P trend=0.027) were higher. Across increasing groups of milk intake and quartiles of dairy product intake, glucose (P trend=0.032) and triglyceride concentrations (P trend=0.031) were lower, respectively. The present results confirm that consumption of milk predicts prospective blood pressure, whereas dairy product consumption, excluding butter, is not detrimental to arterial stiffness and metabolic markers. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms that underpin these relationships.

  19. Sasang constitutional types for the risk prediction of metabolic syndrome: a 14-year longitudinal prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunghee; Lee, Seung Ku; Kim, Jong Yeol; Cho, Namhan; Shin, Chol

    2017-09-02

    To examine whether the use of Sasang constitutional (SC) types, such as Tae-yang (TY), Tae-eum (TE), So-yang (SY), and So-eum (SE) types, increases the accuracy of risk prediction for metabolic syndrome. From 2001 to 2014, 3529 individuals aged 40 to 69 years participated in a longitudinal prospective cohort. The Cox proportional hazard model was utilized to predict the risk of developing metabolic syndrome. During the 14 year follow-up, 1591 incident events of metabolic syndrome were observed. Individuals with TE type had higher body mass indexes and waist circumferences than individuals with SY and SE types. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome was the highest among individuals with the TE type, followed by the SY type and the SE type. When the prediction risk models for incident metabolic syndrome were compared, the area under the curve for the model using SC types was significantly increased to 0.8173. Significant predictors for incident metabolic syndrome were different according to the SC types. For individuals with the TE type, the significant predictors were age, sex, body mass index (BMI), education, smoking, drinking, fasting glucose level, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level. For Individuals with the SE type, the predictors were sex, smoking, fasting glucose, HDL cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level, while the predictors in individuals with the SY type were age, sex, BMI, smoking, drinking, total cholesterol level, fasting glucose level, HDL cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level. In this prospective cohort study among 3529 individuals, we observed that utilizing the SC types significantly increased the accuracy of the risk prediction for the development of metabolic syndrome.

  20. Validation of the RRE-90 Scale to Predict Stroke Risk after Transient Symptoms with Infarction: A Prospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Song

    Full Text Available The risk of stroke after a transient ischemic attack (TIA for patients with a positive diffusion-weighted image (DWI, i.e., transient symptoms with infarction (TSI, is much higher than for those with a negative DWI. The aim of this study was to validate the predictive value of a web-based recurrence risk estimator (RRE; http://www.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/RRE/ of TSI.Data from the prospective hospital-based TIA database of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University were analyzed. The RRE and ABCD2 scores were calculated within 7 days of symptom onset. The predictive outcome was ischemic stroke occurrence at 90 days. The receiver-operating characteristics curves were plotted, and the predictive value of the two models was assessed by computing the C statistics.A total of 221 eligible patients were prospectively enrolled, of whom 46 (20.81% experienced a stroke within 90 days. The 90-day stroke risk in high-risk TSI patients (RRE ≥4 was 3.406-fold greater than in those at low risk (P <0.001. The C statistic of RRE (0.681; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.592-0.771 was statistically higher than that of ABCD2 score (0.546; 95% CI, 0.454-0.638; Z = 2.115; P = 0.0344 at 90 days.The RRE score had a higher predictive value than the ABCD2 score for assessing the 90-day risk of stroke after TSI.

  1. Stroke volume variation compared with pulse pressure variation and cardiac index changes for prediction of fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randa Aly Soliman

    2015-04-01

    Conclusions: Baseline stroke volume variation ⩾8.15% predicted fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients with acute circulatory failure. The study also confirmed the ability of pulse pressure variation to predict fluid responsiveness.

  2. "Pulmonary valve replacement diminishes the presence of restrictive physiology and reduces atrial volumes": a prospective study in Tetralogy of Fallot patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijuan-Domenech, Antonia; Pineda, Victor; Castro, Miguel Angel; Sureda-Barbosa, Carlos; Ribera, Aida; Cruz, Luz M; Ferreira-Gonzalez, Ignacio; Dos-Subirà, Laura; Subirana-Domènech, Teresa; Garcia-Dorado, David; Casaldàliga-Ferrer, Jaume

    2014-11-15

    Pulmonary valve replacement (PVR) reduces right ventricular (RV) volumes in the setting of long-term pulmonary regurgitation after Tetralogy of Fallot (ToF) repair; however, little is known of its effect on RV diastolic function. Right atrial volumes may reflect the burden of RV diastolic dysfunction. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the clinical, echocardiographic, biochemical and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) variables, focusing particularly on right atrial response and right ventricular diastolic function prior to and after elective PVR in adult patients with ToF. This prospective study was conducted from January 2009 to April 2013 in consecutive patients > 18 years of age who had undergone ToF repair in childhood and were accepted for elective PVR. Twenty patients (mean age: 35 years; 70% men) agreed to enter the study. PVR was performed with a bioporcine prosthesis. Concomitant RV reduction was performed in all cases when technically possible. Pulmonary end-diastolic forward flow (EDFF) decreased significantly from 5.4 ml/m(2) to 0.3 ml/m(2) (p volumes by 25% (p = 0.0024): mean indexed diastolic/systolic atrial volumes prior to surgery were 43 ml/m(2) (SD+/-4.6)/63 ml/m(2) (SD+/-5.5), and dropped to 33 ml/m(2) (SD+/-3)/46 ml/m(2) (SD+/-2.55) post-surgery. All patients presented right ventricular diastolic and systolic volume reductions, with a mean volume reduction of 35% (p volumes in keeping with the known reduction in RV volumes, after PVR. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Proton Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopic Imaging in Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma: Predictive Value for the Site of Postradiotherapy Relapse in a Prospective Longitudinal Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laprie, Anne; Catalaa, Isabelle; Cassol, Emmanuelle; McKnight, Tracy R.; Berchery, Delphine; Marre, Delphine; Bachaud, Jean-Marc; Berry, Isabelle; Moyal, Elizabeth Cohen-Jonathan

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate the association between magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI)-defined, metabolically abnormal tumor regions and subsequent sites of relapse in data from patients treated with radiotherapy (RT) in a prospective clinical trial. Methods and Materials: Twenty-three examinations were performed prospectively for 9 patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme studied in a Phase I trial combining Tipifarnib and RT. The patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and MRSI before treatment and every 2 months until relapse. The MRSI data were categorized by the choline (Cho)/N-acetyl-aspartate (NAA) ratio (CNR) as a measure of spectroscopic abnormality. CNRs corresponding to T1 and T2 MRI for 1,207 voxels were evaluated before RT and at recurrence. Results: Before treatment, areas of CNR2 (CNR ≥2) represented 25% of the contrast-enhancing (T1CE) regions and 10% of abnormal T2 regions outside T1CE (HyperT2). The presence of CNR2 was often an early indicator of the site of relapse after therapy. In fact, 75% of the voxels within the T1CE+CNR2 before therapy continued to exhibit CNR2 at relapse, compared with 22% of the voxels within the T1CE with normal CNR (p < 0.05). The location of new contrast enhancement with CNR2 corresponded in 80% of the initial HyperT2+CNR2 vs. 20.7% of the HyperT2 voxels with normal CNR (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Metabolically active regions represented a small percentage of pretreatment MRI abnormalities and were predictive for the site of post-RT relapse. The incorporation of MRSI data in the definition of RT target volumes for selective boosting may be a promising avenue leading to increased local control of glioblastomas

  4. Anatomic features of the neck as predictive markers of difficult direct laryngoscopy in men and women: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaskou, Chara; Chara, Liaskou; Vouzounerakis, Eleftherios; Eleftherios, Vouzounerakis; Moirasgenti, Maria; Maria, Moirasgenti; Trikoupi, Anastasia; Anastasia, Trikoupi; Staikou, Chryssoula; Chryssoula, Staikou

    2014-03-01

    Difficult airway assessment is based on various anatomic parameters of upper airway, much of it being concentrated on oral cavity and the pharyngeal structures. The diagnostic value of tests based on neck anatomy in predicting difficult laryngoscopy was assessed in this prospective, open cohort study. We studied 341 adult patients scheduled to receive general anaesthesia. Thyromental distance (TMD), sternomental distance (STMD), ratio of height to thyromental distance (RHTMD) and neck circumference (NC) were measured pre-operatively. The laryngoscopic view was classified according to the Cormack-Lehane Grade (1-4). Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Cormack-Lehane Grade 3 or 4. The optimal cut-off points for each variable were identified by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each test. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression, including all variables, was used to create a predictive model. Comparisons between genders were also performed. Laryngoscopy was difficult in 12.6% of the patients. The cut-off values were: TMD ≤7 cm, STMD ≤15 cm, RHTMD >18.4 and NC >37.5 cm. The RHTMD had the highest sensitivity (88.4%) and NPV (95.2%), while TMD had the highest specificity (83.9%). The area under curve (AUC) for the TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC was 0.63, 0.64, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively. The predictive model exhibited a higher and statistically significant diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.68, P < 0.001). Gender-specific cut-off points improved the predictive accuracy of NC in women (AUC: 0.65). The TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC were found to be poor single predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, while a model including all four variables had a significant predictive accuracy. Among the studied tests, gender-specific cut-off points should be used for NC.

  5. Maternal anxiety disorders predict excessive infant crying: a prospective longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzoldt, Johanna; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Wittich, Julia; Einsle, Franziska; Höfler, Michael; Martini, Julia

    2014-09-01

    To prospectively examine relations between maternal DSM-IV-TR anxiety and depressive disorders and excessive infant crying. Based on the prospective longitudinal Maternal Anxiety in Relation to Infant Development Study, n=306 expectant mothers were enrolled during early pregnancy and repeatedly interviewed until 16 months post partum. Lifetime and prospective information on maternal anxiety and depressive disorders was assessed via standardised diagnostic interviews (Composite International Diagnostic Interview for Women). Excessive crying (crying for ≥3 h per day on ≥3 days per week for ≥3 weeks) was assessed via Baby-DIPS. During the first 16 months after delivery, n=286 mother-infant dyads were available and included in the analyses. Excessive crying was reported by n=29 mothers (10.1%). Infants of mothers with anxiety disorders prior to pregnancy were at higher risk for excessive crying than infants of mothers without any anxiety disorder prior to pregnancy (OR=2.54, 95% CI 1.11 to 5.78, p=0.027). Risk was even increased when considering additionally incident anxiety disorders until delivery (OR=3.02, 95% CI 1.25 to 7.32, p=0.014) and until 16 months post partum (OR=2.87, 95% CI 1.13 to 7.28, p=0.027). Associations remained stable when adjusting for sociodemographic and perinatal covariates. Maternal depressive disorders prior to pregnancy were not significantly associated with excessive crying in this sample. Maternal lifetime and incident anxiety disorders revealed to be a robust predictor for excessive crying. Thus, early identification and monitoring of women with anxiety disorders is important to identify mother-infant dyads at risk for excessive crying. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  6. Prediction of acute cardiac rejection by changes in left ventricular volumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novitzky, D.; Cooper, D.K.; Boniaszczuk, J.

    1988-01-01

    Sixteen patients underwent heart transplantation (11 orthotopic, five heterotopic). Monitoring for acute rejection was by both endomyocardial biopsy (EMB) and multigated equilibrium blood pool scanning with technetium 99m-labelled red blood cells. From the scans information was obtained on left ventricular volumes (stroke, end-diastolic, and end-systolic), ejection fraction, and heart rate. Studies (208) were made in the 16 patients. There was a highly significant correlation between the reduction in stroke volume and end-diastolic volume (and a less significant correlation in end-systolic volume) and increasing acute rejection seen on EMB. Heart rate and ejection fraction did not correlate with the development of acute rejection. Correlation of a combination of changes in stroke volume and end-diastolic volume with EMB showed a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 96%. Radionuclide scanning is therefore a useful noninvasive tool for monitoring acute rejection

  7. Predictive accuracy of Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale assessment during pregnancy for the risk of developing postpartum depressive symptoms : a prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, J. L.; Beijers, C.; van Pampus, M. G.; Verbeek, T.; Stolk, R. P.; Milgrom, J.; Bockting, C. L. H.; Burger, H.

    2014-01-01

    ObjectiveTo investigate whether the 10-item Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) administered antenatally is accurate in predicting postpartum depressive symptoms, and whether a two-item EPDS has similar predictive accuracy. DesignProspective cohort study. SettingObstetric care in the

  8. Pressure-volume-temperature and excess molar volume prediction of amorphous and crystallizable polymer blends by equation of state

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fakhri Yousefi; Hajir Karimi; Maryam Gomar

    2015-01-01

    In this work the statistical mechanical equation of state was developed for volumetric properties of crystal ine and amorphous polymer blends. The Ihm–Song–Mason equations of state (ISMEOS) based on temperature and density at melting point (Tm andρm) as scaling constants were developed for crystalline polymers such as poly(propylene glycol)+poly(ethylene glycol)-200 (PPG+PEG-200), poly(ethylene glycol) methyl ether-300 (PEGME-350)+PEG-200 and PEGME-350+PEG-600. Furthermore, for amorphous polymer blends con-taining poly(2,6-dimethyl-1,4-phenylene oxide) (PPO)+polystyrene (PS) and PS+poly(vinylmethylether) (PVME), the density and surface tension at glass transition (ρg andγg) were used for estimation of second Virial coefficient. The calculation of second Virial coefficients (B2), effective van der Waals co-volume (b) and correction factor (α) was required for judgment about applicability of this model. The obtained results by ISMEOS for crys-talline and amorphous polymer blends were in good agreement with the experimental data with absolute aver-age deviations of 0.84%and 1.04%, respectively.

  9. Urine NGAL Predicts Severity of Acute Kidney Injury After Cardiac Surgery: A Prospective Study

    OpenAIRE

    Bennett, Michael; Dent, Catherine L.; Ma, Qing; Dastrala, Sudha; Grenier, Frank; Workman, Ryan; Syed, Hina; Ali, Salman; Barasch, Jonathan; Devarajan, Prasad

    2008-01-01

    Background and objectives: The authors have previously shown that urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), measured by a research ELISA, is an early predictive biomarker of acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). In this study, whether an NGAL immunoassay developed for a standardized clinical platform (ARCHITECT analyzer®, Abbott Diagnostics Division, Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, IL) can predict AKI after CPB was tested.

  10. Very Low Cerebral Blood Volume Predicts Parenchymal Hematoma in Acute Ischemic Stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermitte, Laure; Cho, Tae-Hee; Ozenne, Brice

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Parenchymal hematoma (PH) may worsen the outcome of patients with stroke. The aim of our study was to confirm the relationship between the volume of very low cerebral blood volume (CBV) and PH using a European multicenter database (I-KNOW). A secondary objective was to exp......BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Parenchymal hematoma (PH) may worsen the outcome of patients with stroke. The aim of our study was to confirm the relationship between the volume of very low cerebral blood volume (CBV) and PH using a European multicenter database (I-KNOW). A secondary objective...

  11. Elevated postvoid residual urine volume predicting recurrence of urinary tract infections in toilet-trained children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shang-Jen; Tsai, Li-Ping; Hsu, Chun-Kai; Yang, Stephen S

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this study was to examine whether toilet-trained children with a history of febrile urinary tract infection (fUTI) and elevated postvoid residual (PVR) urine volume according to a recently published PVR nomogram were at greater risk of UTI recurrence. One month after recovery from febrile UTI, constipation was diagnosed according to the Rome III criteria, and lower urinary tract (LUT) function was evaluated with two sets of uroflowmetry and PVR by ultrasonography. For children aged ≦ 6 and ≧ 7 years, elevated PVR is defined as >20 and >10 ml, respectively. Cox proportion hazards regression was used to evaluate the risk factors for recurrence of UTI. Between 2005 and 2011, 60 children aged 6.5 ± 2.5 years (boy:girl ratio 27:33) were enrolled for analysis. Univariate analysis showed that recurrent febrile UTI was more commonly observed in children with elevated PVR [repetitive elevated PVR: hazard ratio (HR) 5.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41-23.4; one elevated PVR: HR 4.53, 95% CI 1.01-20.2] and high-grade vesicoureteral reflux (VUR; HR 4.53, 95% CI 1.46-14.07). Multivariate analysis showed that younger age (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.03-1.82, p UTI--but not gender, presence of high-grade VUR and constipation. Elevated PVR defined by the new PVR nomogram predicted recurrent UTI in children with history of febrile UTI. Care should be taken to manage children with elevated PVR.

  12. Smoking behaviors and attitudes during adolescence prospectively predict support for tobacco control policies in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macy, Jonathan T; Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C

    2012-07-01

    Several cross-sectional studies have examined factors associated with support for tobacco control policies. The current study utilized a longitudinal design to test smoking status and attitude toward smoking measured in adolescence as prospective predictors of support for tobacco control policies measured in adulthood. Participants (N = 4,834) were from a longitudinal study of a Midwestern community-based sample. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses tested adolescent smoking status and attitude toward smoking as prospective predictors (after controlling for sociodemographic factors, adult smoking status, and adult attitude toward smoking) of support for regulation of smoking in public places, discussion of the dangers of smoking in public schools, prohibiting smoking in bars, eliminating smoking on television and in movies, prohibiting smoking in restaurants, and increasing taxes on cigarettes. Participants who smoked during adolescence demonstrated more support for discussion of the dangers of smoking in public schools and less support for increasing taxes on cigarettes but only among those who smoked as adults. Those with more positive attitudes toward smoking during adolescence demonstrated less support as adults for prohibiting smoking in bars and eliminating smoking on television and in movies. Moreover, a significant interaction indicated that those with more positive attitudes toward smoking as adolescents demonstrated less support as adults for prohibiting smoking in restaurants, but only if they became parents as adults. This study's findings suggest that interventions designed to deter adolescent smoking may have future benefits in increasing support for tobacco control policies.

  13. Predicting remembering and forgetting of autobiographical memories in children and adults: a 4-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Patricia J; Larkina, Marina

    2016-11-01

    Preservation and loss to forgetting of autobiographical memories is a focus in both the adult and developmental literatures. In both, there are comparative arguments regarding rates of forgetting. Children are assumed to forget autobiographical memories more rapidly than adults, and younger children are assumed to forget more rapidly than older children. Yet few studies can directly inform these comparisons: few feature children and adults, and few prospectively track the survival of specific autobiographical memories over time. In a 4-year prospective study, we obtained autobiographical memories from children 4, 6, and 8 years, and adults. We tested recall of different subsets of the events after 1, 2, and 3 years. Accelerated rates of forgetting were apparent among all child groups relative to adults; within the child groups, 4- and 6-year-olds had accelerated forgetting relative to 8-year-olds. The differences were especially pronounced in open-ended recall. The thematic coherence of initial memory reports also was a significant predictor of the survival of specific memories. The pattern of findings is consistent with suggestions that the adult distribution of autobiographical memories is achieved as the quality of memory traces increases (here measured by thematic coherence) and the rate of forgetting decreases.

  14. Predicting remembering and forgetting of autobiographical memories in children and adults: A 4-year prospective study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Patricia J.; Larkina, Marina

    2015-01-01

    Preservation and loss to forgetting of autobiographical memories is a focus in both the adult and developmental literatures. In both, there are comparative arguments regarding rates of forgetting. Children are assumed to forget autobiographical memories more rapidly than adults, and younger children are assumed to forget more rapidly than older children. Yet few studies can directly inform these comparisons: few feature children and adults, and few prospectively track the survival of specific autobiographical memories over time. In a 4-year prospective study, we obtained autobiographical memories from children 4, 6, and 8 years, and adults. We tested recall of different subsets of the events after 1, 2, and 3 years. Accelerated rates of forgetting were apparent among all child groups relative to adults; within the child groups, 4- and 6-year-olds had accelerated forgetting relative to 8-year-olds. The differences were especially pronounced in open-ended recall. The thematic coherence of initial memory reports also was a significant predictor of the survival of specific memories. The pattern of findings is consistent with suggestions that the adult distribution of autobiographical memories is achieved as the quality of memory traces increases (here measured by thematic coherence) and the rate of forgetting decreases. PMID:26566236

  15. The predictive value of treatment response using FDG PET performed on day 21 of chemoradiotherapy in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. A prospective, multicentre study (RTEP3)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palie, Odre; Vera, Pierre; Michel, Pierre; Di Fiore, Frederic; Menard, Jean-Francois; Rousseau, Caroline; Bridji, Boumediene; Rio, Emmanuel; Benyoucef, Ahmed; Meyer, Marc-Etienne; Jalali, Khadija; Bardet, Stephane; M'Vondo, Che Mabubu; Olivier, Pierre; Faure, Guillaume; Itti, Emmanuel; Diana, Christian; Houzard, Claire; Mornex, Francoise

    2013-01-01

    FDG PET has been suggested to have predictive value in the prognosis of oesophageal carcinoma. However, the retrospective studies reported in the literature have shown discordant results. Additionally, only four studies have evaluated FDG PET during chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with different histological lesions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive value of FDG PET performed early during CRT (on day 21) in a population of patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Included in this prospective study were 57 patients with a histological diagnosis of squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus. Of these 57 patients, 48 (84 %) were evaluated (aged 63 ± 11 years; 44 men, 4 women). Each patient underwent FDG PET (4.5 MBq/kg) before CRT, according to the Herskovic protocol (t0; PET 1 ) and on day 21 ± 3 from the start of CRT (d21; PET 2 ). The response assessment included a clinical examination, CT scan or FDG PET and histological analysis 3 months and 1 year after PET 1 . The patients were classified as showing a complete response (CR) or a noncomplete response. A quantitative analysis was carried out for PET 1 and PET 2 using the following parameters: SUVmax, SUVmean (with SUVmean 40 as the 3-D volume at an SUVmax threshold of 40 % and SUVmean p as that defined by a physician), tumour volume (TV, with TV 40 defined as the TV at 40 % of SUVmax, and TV p as that defined by a physician); and the total lesion glycolysis (TLG, SUVmean x TV, with TLG 40 defined as the TLG at 40 % of SUVmax, and TLG p as that defined by a physician). The differences in responses at 3 months and 1 year between PET 1 (t0) and PET 2 (d21) were assessed in terms of variations in SUV, TV and TLG using a repeated measures of variance (ANOVA). SUVmax, SUVmean and TLG decreased significantly between PET 1 (t0) and PET 2 (d21; p p (p = 0.02); TV 40 did not decrease significantly. With respect to the predictive value of PET 1 , only TV 40 1 and TV p 1 values, and

  16. Stress sensitivity interacts with depression history to predict depressive symptoms among youth: Prospective changes following first depression onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Technow, Jessica R.; Hazel, Nicholas A.; Abela, John R. Z.; Hankin, Benjamin L.

    2015-01-01

    Predictors of depressive symptoms may differ before and after the first onset of major depression due to stress sensitization. Dependent stressors, or those to which characteristics of individuals contribute, have been shown to predict depressive symptoms in youth. The current study sought to clarify how stressors’ roles may differ before and after the first depressive episode. Adolescents (N = 382, aged 11 to 15 at baseline) were assessed at baseline and every three months over the course of two years with measures of stressors and depressive symptoms. Semi-structured interviews were conducted every 6 months to assess for clinically significant depressive episodes. Hierarchical linear modeling showed a significant interaction between history of depression and idiographic fluctuations in dependent stressors to predict prospective elevations of symptoms, such that dependent stressors were more predictive of depressive symptoms after onset of disorder. Independent stressors predicted symptoms, but the strength of the association did not vary by depression history. These results suggest a synthesis of stress sensitization and generation processes that might maintain inter-episode depressive symptoms among youth with a history of clinical depression. PMID:25123081

  17. Stress sensitivity interacts with depression history to predict depressive symptoms among youth: prospective changes following first depression onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Technow, Jessica R; Hazel, Nicholas A; Abela, John R Z; Hankin, Benjamin L

    2015-04-01

    Predictors of depressive symptoms may differ before and after the first onset of major depression due to stress sensitization. Dependent stressors, or those to which characteristics of individuals contribute, have been shown to predict depressive symptoms in youth. The current study sought to clarify how stressors' roles may differ before and after the first depressive episode. Adolescents (N = 382, aged 11 to 15 at baseline) were assessed at baseline and every 3 months over the course of 2 years with measures of stressors and depressive symptoms. Semi-structured interviews were conducted every 6 months to assess for clinically significant depressive episodes. Hierarchical linear modeling showed a significant interaction between history of depression and idiographic fluctuations in dependent stressors to predict prospective elevations of symptoms, such that dependent stressors were more predictive of depressive symptoms after onset of disorder. Independent stressors predicted symptoms, but the strength of the association did not vary by depression history. These results suggest a synthesis of dependent stress and stress sensitization processes that might maintain inter-episode depressive symptoms among youth with a history of clinical depression.

  18. Interaction of CD38 Variant and Chronic Interpersonal Stress Prospectively Predicts Social Anxiety and Depression Symptoms Over Six Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabak, Benjamin A.; Vrshek-Schallhorn, Suzanne; Zinbarg, Richard E.; Prenoveau, Jason M.; Mineka, Susan; Redei, Eva E.; Adam, Emma K.; Craske, Michelle G.

    2015-01-01

    Variation in the CD38 gene, which regulates secretion of the neuropeptide oxytocin, has been associated with several social phenotypes. Specifically, rs3796863 A allele carriers have demonstrated increased social sensitivity. In 400 older adolescents, we used trait-state-occasion modeling to investigate how rs3796863 genotype, baseline ratings of chronic interpersonal stress, and their gene-environment (GxE) interaction predicted trait social anxiety and depression symptoms over six years. We found significant GxE effects for CD38 A-carrier genotypes and chronic interpersonal stress at baseline predicting greater social anxiety and depression symptoms. A significant GxE effect of smaller magnitude was also found for C/C genotype and chronic interpersonal stress predicting greater depression; however, this effect was small compared to the main effect of chronic interpersonal stress. Thus, in the context of chronic interpersonal stress, heightened social sensitivity associated with the rs3796863 A allele may prospectively predict risk for social anxiety and (to a lesser extent) depression. PMID:26958455

  19. Prospective longitudinal MRI study of brain volumes and diffusion changes during the first year after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Brezova

    2014-01-01

    Higher ADC values were detected in the cortex in individuals with severe TBI, DAI and PTA > 2 weeks, from 3 months. There were no associations between ADC values and brain volumes, and ADC values did not predict outcome.

  20. ABC/2 Method Does not Accurately Predict Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformation Volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roark, Christopher; Vadlamudi, Venu; Chaudhary, Neeraj; Gemmete, Joseph J; Seinfeld, Joshua; Thompson, B Gregory; Pandey, Aditya S

    2018-02-01

    Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is a treatment option for cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) to prevent intracranial hemorrhage. The decision to proceed with SRS is usually based on calculated nidal volume. Physicians commonly use the ABC/2 formula, based on digital subtraction angiography (DSA), when counseling patients for SRS. To determine whether AVM volume calculated using the ABC/2 method on DSA is accurate when compared to the exact volume calculated from thin-cut axial sections used for SRS planning. Retrospective search of neurovascular database to identify AVMs treated with SRS from 1995 to 2015. Maximum nidal diameters in orthogonal planes on DSA images were recorded to determine volume using ABC/2 formula. Nidal target volume was extracted from operative reports of SRS. Volumes were then compared using descriptive statistics and paired t-tests. Ninety intracranial AVMs were identified. Median volume was 4.96 cm3 [interquartile range (IQR) 1.79-8.85] with SRS planning methods and 6.07 cm3 (IQR 1.3-13.6) with ABC/2 methodology. Moderate correlation was seen between SRS and ABC/2 (r = 0.662; P ABC/2 (t = -3.2; P = .002). When AVMs were dichotomized based on ABC/2 volume, significant differences remained (t = 3.1, P = .003 for ABC/2 volume ABC/2 volume > 7 cm3). The ABC/2 method overestimates cerebral AVM volume when compared to volumetric analysis from SRS planning software. For AVMs > 7 cm3, the overestimation is even greater. SRS planning techniques were also significantly different than values derived from equations for cones and cylinders. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

  1. General life satisfaction predicts dementia in community living older adults: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitsch, Lorraine; Tyas, Suzanne L; Menec, Verena H; St John, Philip D

    2016-07-01

    Low life satisfaction predicts adverse outcomes, and may predict dementia. The objectives were: (1) to determine if life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in those with normal cognition at baseline; and (2) to determine if different aspects of life satisfaction differentially predict dementia. Secondary analysis of an existing population-based cohort study with initial assessment in 1991 and follow-up five years later. Initially, 1,751 adults age 65+ living in the community were sampled from a representative sampling frame. Of these, 1,024 were alive and had complete data at time 2, of whom 96 were diagnosed with dementia. Life satisfaction was measured using the Terrible-Delightful scale, which measures overall life satisfaction on a 7-point scale, as well as various aspects of life satisfaction (e.g. friendships, finances, etc.) Dementia was diagnosed by clinical examination using DSM-IIIR criteria. Logistic regression models were constructed for the outcome of dementia at time 2, and adjusted for age, gender, education, and comorbidities. Overall life satisfaction predicted dementia five years later, at time 2. The unadjusted Odds Ratio (OR; 95% confidence interval) for dementia at time 2 was 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) per point. The adjusted OR for dementia was 0.70 (0.51, 0.96). No individual item on the life satisfaction scale predicted dementia. However, the competing risk of mortality was very high for some items. A global single-item measure of life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in older adults without cognitive impairment.

  2. Prospective prediction of resistance to neoadjuvant therapy in patients with locoregional esophageal adenocarcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosen DG

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Daniel G Rosen,1 Weiwei Shan,2 Natalie Lassen,2 Clare Johnson,2 Kristen Oelschlager,2 Yaeli Bierman-Harrar,1 Kenneth A Kesler,3 Derek Maetzold,2 Sunil Badve,3 Robert W Cook,2 Romil Saxena3 1Baylor College of Medicine, Houston TX, USA; 2Castle Biosciences, Incorporated, Friendswood, TX, USA; 3Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN, USA Background: To clinically validate a multianalyte algorithmic immunohistochemistry (IHC assay that has been previously shown to accurately identify patients with locoregional esophageal adenocarcinoma (EC who will exhibit extreme resistance to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Methods: Archived biopsy specimens of EC were subject to IHC examination of compartmentalized immunoreactivity of nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB, Sonic Hedgehog (SHH, and GLI family zinc finger 1 (Gli-1, and a labeling index score was assigned to each biomarker. Test prediction was generated by logistic regression predictive modeling, using the labeling index scores for all three analytes from each sample, referring to a validated training set of 167 EC patients. Accuracy of the test was determined by comparing the predicted outcomes with pathologically determined College of American Pathologists tumor response grade. Analytical validity of the test was measured by comparing validation set prediction results obtained in two independent Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendment-certified laboratories, and by measuring concordance between two trained labeling index readers. Results: Specimens from 64 patients that met specific criteria were collected. No technical failure was encountered during the IHC labeling procedures. The logistic regression algorithm generated an area under the curve of 0.96 and 0.85 for the 64 sample cohort in two independent clinical laboratories, respectively, comparing predictive results with the established training set. Positive predictive values of 88% and 82% were also achieved in each laboratory, respectively. A

  3. Does delivery volume of family physicians predict maternal and newborn outcome?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, M.C. [Children' s and Women' s Health Centre, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Univ. of British Columbia, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Spence, A. [Children' s and Women' s Health Centre, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Kaczorowski, J. [McMaster Univ., Depts. of Family Medicine and of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada); Kelly, A. [Children' s and Women' s Health Centre, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Univ. of British Columbia, Dept. of Health Care and Epidemiology, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Grzybowski, S. [Univ. of British Columbia, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada)

    2002-05-01

    The number of births attended by individual family physicians who practice intrapartum care varies. We wanted to determine if the practice-volume relations that have been shown in other fields of medical practice also exist in maternity care practice by family doctors. For the period April 1997 to August 1998, we analyzed all singleton births at a major maternity teaching hospital for which the family physician was the responsible physician. Physicians were grouped into 3 categories on the basis of the number of births they attended each year: fewer than 12, 12 to 24, and 25 or more. Physicians with a low volume of deliveries (72 physicians, 549 births), those with a medium volume of deliveries (34 physicians, 871 births) and those with a high volume of deliveries (46 physicians, 3024 births) were compared in terms of maternal and newborn outcomes. The main outcome measures were maternal morbidity, 5-minute Apgar score and admission of the baby to the neonatal intensive care unit or special care unit. Secondary outcomes were obstetric procedures and consultation patterns. There was no difference among the 3 volume cohorts in terms of rates of maternal complications of delivery, 5-minute Apgar scores of less than 7 or admissions to the neonatal intensive care unit or the special care unit, either before or after adjustment for parity, pregnancy-induced hypertension, diabetes, ethnicity, lone parent status, maternal age, gestational age, newborn birth weight and newborn head circumference at birth. High-and medium-volume family physicians consulted with obstetricians less often than low-volume family physicians (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.586 [95% confidence interval, CI, 0.479-0.718] and 0.739 [95% Cl 0.583-0.935] respectively). High-and medium-volume family physicians transferred the delivery to an obstetrician less often than low-volume family physicians (adjusted OR 0.668 [95% CI 0.542-0.823] and 0.776 [95% Cl 0.607-0.992] respectively). Inductions were performed

  4. Does delivery volume of family physicians predict maternal and newborn outcome?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, M.C.; Spence, A.; Kaczorowski, J.; Kelly, A.; Grzybowski, S.

    2002-01-01

    The number of births attended by individual family physicians who practice intrapartum care varies. We wanted to determine if the practice-volume relations that have been shown in other fields of medical practice also exist in maternity care practice by family doctors. For the period April 1997 to August 1998, we analyzed all singleton births at a major maternity teaching hospital for which the family physician was the responsible physician. Physicians were grouped into 3 categories on the basis of the number of births they attended each year: fewer than 12, 12 to 24, and 25 or more. Physicians with a low volume of deliveries (72 physicians, 549 births), those with a medium volume of deliveries (34 physicians, 871 births) and those with a high volume of deliveries (46 physicians, 3024 births) were compared in terms of maternal and newborn outcomes. The main outcome measures were maternal morbidity, 5-minute Apgar score and admission of the baby to the neonatal intensive care unit or special care unit. Secondary outcomes were obstetric procedures and consultation patterns. There was no difference among the 3 volume cohorts in terms of rates of maternal complications of delivery, 5-minute Apgar scores of less than 7 or admissions to the neonatal intensive care unit or the special care unit, either before or after adjustment for parity, pregnancy-induced hypertension, diabetes, ethnicity, lone parent status, maternal age, gestational age, newborn birth weight and newborn head circumference at birth. High-and medium-volume family physicians consulted with obstetricians less often than low-volume family physicians (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.586 [95% confidence interval, CI, 0.479-0.718] and 0.739 [95% Cl 0.583-0.935] respectively). High-and medium-volume family physicians transferred the delivery to an obstetrician less often than low-volume family physicians (adjusted OR 0.668 [95% CI 0.542-0.823] and 0.776 [95% Cl 0.607-0.992] respectively). Inductions were performed

  5. Prediction of free-volume-type correlations in glassy chalcogenides from positron annihilation lifetime measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shpotyuk, O.; Ingram, A.; Shpotyuk, M.; Filipecki, J.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Decisive role of specific chemical environment in free-volume correlations in glass. • Realistic free volumes in As–S/Se glass are defined by newly modified τ 2 -R formula. • Overestimated void sizes in chalcogenide glass as compared with molecular polymers. - Abstract: A newly modified correlation equation between defect-related positron lifetime determined within two-state trapping model and radius of corresponding free-volume-type defects was proposed to describe compositional variations in atomic-deficient structure of covalent-bonded chalcogenides like binary As–S/Se glasses. Specific chemical environment of free-volume voids around neighboring network-forming polyhedrons was shown to play a decisive role in this correlation, leading to systematically enhanced volumes in comparison with typical molecular substrates, such as polymers

  6. Prediction of free-volume-type correlations in glassy chalcogenides from positron annihilation lifetime measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shpotyuk, O., E-mail: shpotyuk@novas.lviv.ua [Institute of Materials of SRC “Carat”, 212 Stryjska Str., Lviv 79031 (Ukraine); Institute of Physics of Jan Dlugosz University, 13/15 al. Armii Krajowej, Czestcochowa 42200 (Poland); Ingram, A. [Opole University of Technology, 75 Ozimska Str., Opole 45370 (Poland); Shpotyuk, M. [Institute of Materials of SRC “Carat”, 212 Stryjska Str., Lviv 79031 (Ukraine); Lviv Polytechnic National University, 12 Bandery Str., Lviv 79013 (Ukraine); Filipecki, J. [Institute of Physics of Jan Dlugosz University, 13/15 al. Armii Krajowej, Czestcochowa 42200 (Poland)

    2014-11-01

    Highlights: • Decisive role of specific chemical environment in free-volume correlations in glass. • Realistic free volumes in As–S/Se glass are defined by newly modified τ{sub 2}-R formula. • Overestimated void sizes in chalcogenide glass as compared with molecular polymers. - Abstract: A newly modified correlation equation between defect-related positron lifetime determined within two-state trapping model and radius of corresponding free-volume-type defects was proposed to describe compositional variations in atomic-deficient structure of covalent-bonded chalcogenides like binary As–S/Se glasses. Specific chemical environment of free-volume voids around neighboring network-forming polyhedrons was shown to play a decisive role in this correlation, leading to systematically enhanced volumes in comparison with typical molecular substrates, such as polymers.

  7. Predicting Reading and Spelling Disorders: A 4-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Caudek, Corrado; Pinto, Giuliana

    2016-01-01

    In this 4-year prospective cohort study, children with a reading and spelling disorder, children with a spelling impairment, and children without a reading and/or spelling disorder (control group) in a transparent orthography were identified in third grade, and their emergent literacy performances in kindergarten compared retrospectively. Six hundred and forty-two Italian children participated. This cohort was followed from the last year of kindergarten to third grade. In kindergarten, the children were assessed in phonological awareness, conceptual knowledge of writing systems and textual competence. In third grade, 18 children with a reading and spelling impairment and 13 children with a spelling impairment were identified. Overall, conceptual knowledge of the writing system was the only statistically significant predictor of the clinical samples. No differences were found between the two clinical samples.

  8. History of major depressive disorder prospectively predicts worse quality of life in women with breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jim, Heather S L; Small, Brent J; Minton, Susan; Andrykowski, Michael; Jacobsen, Paul B

    2012-06-01

    Data are scarce about whether past history of major depressive disorder in the absence of current depression places breast cancer patients at risk for worse quality of life. The current study prospectively examined quality of life during chemotherapy in breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder (n = 29) and no history of depression (n = 144). Women with Stages 0-II breast cancer were assessed prior to and at the completion of chemotherapy. Major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview and quality of life with the SF-36. Patients with past major depressive disorder displayed greater declines in physical functioning relative to patients with no history of depression (p ≤ 0.01). Findings suggest that breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder are at increased risk for declines in physical functioning during chemotherapy relative to patients with no history of depression.

  9. History of Major Depressive Disorder Prospectively Predicts Worse Quality of Life in Women with Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, Brent J.; Minton, Susan; Andrykowski, Michael; Jacobsen, Paul B.

    2012-01-01

    Background Data are scarce about whether past history of major depressive disorder in the absence of current depression places breast cancer patients at risk for worse quality of life. Purpose The current study prospectively examined quality of life during chemotherapy in breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder (n=29) and no history of depression (n=144). Methods Women with Stages 0–II breast cancer were assessed prior to and at the completion of chemotherapy. Major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview and quality of life with the SF-36. Results Patients with past major depressive disorder displayed greater declines in physical functioning relative to patients with no history of depression (p≤0.01). Conclusions Findings suggest that breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder are at increased risk for declines in physical functioning during chemotherapy relative to patients with no history of depression. PMID:22167580

  10. Social integration prospectively predicts changes in heart rate variability among individuals undergoing migration stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouin, Jean-Philippe; Zhou, Biru; Fitzpatrick, Stephanie

    2015-04-01

    Poor social integration increases risk for poor health. The psychobiological pathways underlying this effect are not well-understood. This study utilized a migration stress model to prospectively investigate the impact of social integration on change in high-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV), a marker of autonomic functioning. Sixty new international students were recruited shortly after their arrival in the host country and assessed 2 and 5 months later. At each assessment period, participants provided information on social integration and loneliness and had their resting HF-HRV evaluated. There was an overall decrease in HF-HRV over time. The magnitude of the within-person and between-person effects of social integration on HRV increased over time, such that greater social integration was associated with higher HF-HRV at later follow-ups. These results suggest that altered autonomic functioning might represent a key pathway linking social integration to health outcomes.

  11. Internet Addiction among Adolescents May Predict Self-Harm/Suicidal Behavior: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Pei-Yin; Yeh, Chin-Bin

    2018-06-01

    To explore the role of Internet addiction in the development of self-harm/suicidal behavior among adolescents after 1-year of follow-up. We conducted this 1-year, prospective cohort study of 1861 adolescents (mean age 15.93 years) attending a senior high school in Taiwan; 1735 respondents (93.2%) were classified as having no history of self-harm/suicidal attempts in the initial assessment and were referred to as the "noncase" cohort. The Chen Internet Addiction Scale was used to identify individuals with Internet addiction. The participants were evaluated for self-harm/suicidal behavior again 1 year later and the "noncase" cohort was selected for statistical analysis. To examine the relationship between Internet addiction and self-harm/suicidal behavior, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed using Internet addiction at baseline as the predictor for newly developed self-harm/suicidal behavior in the next year, after adjustment for potential confounding variables. The prevalence rate of Internet addiction at baseline was 23.0%. There were 59 students (3.9%) who were identified as having developed new self-harm/suicidal behaviors on follow-up assessments. After controlling for the effects of potential confounders, the relative risk of newly emerging self-harm/suicidal behavior for participants who were classified as Internet addicted was 2.41 (95% CI 1.16-4.99, P = .018) when compared with those without Internet addiction. Our findings indicate that Internet addiction is prospectively associated with the incidence of self-harm/suicidal behavior in adolescents. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Weekly Dose-Volume Parameters of Mucosa and Constrictor Muscles Predict the Use of Percutaneous Endoscopic Gastrostomy During Exclusive Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Oropharyngeal Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Gunn, G. Brandon; Parker, Brent C.; Endres, Eugene J.; Zeng Jing; Fiorino, Claudio

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To define predictors of percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) use during intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for oropharyngeal cancer. Methods and Materials: Data for 59 consecutive patients treated with exclusive IMRT at a single institution were recovered. Of 59 patients, 25 were treated with hyperfractionation (78 Gy, 1.3 Gy per fraction, twice daily; 'HYPER'); and 34 of 59 were treated with a once-daily fractionation schedule (66 Gy, 2.2 Gy per fraction, or 70 Gy, 2 Gy per fraction; 'no-HYPER'). On the basis of symptoms during treatment, a PEG tube could have been placed as appropriate. A number of clinical/dosimetric factors, including the weekly dose-volume histogram of oral mucosa (OM DVHw) and weekly mean dose to constrictors and larynx, were considered. The OM DVHw of patients with and without PEG were compared to assess the most predictive dose-volume combinations. Results: Of 59 patients, 22 needed a PEG tube during treatment (for 15 of 22, ≥3 months). The best cutoff values for OM DVHw were V9.5 Gy/week 3 and V10 Gy/week 3 . At univariate analysis, fractionation, mean weekly dose to OM and superior and middle constrictors, and OM DVHw were strongly correlated with the risk of PEG use. In a stepwise multivariate logistic analysis, OM V9.5 Gy/week (≥64 vs. 3 ) was the most predictive parameter (odds ratio 30.8, 95% confidence interval 3.7-254.2, p = 0.0015), confirmed even in the no-HYPER subgroup (odds ratio 21, 95% CI 2.1 confidence interval 210.1, p = 0.01). Conclusions: The risk of PEG use is drastically reduced when OM V9.5-V10 Gy/week is 3 . These data warrant prospective validation.

  13. Feasibility and predictive performance of the Hendrich Fall Risk Model II in a rehabilitation department: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanini, Isabella; Mastrangelo, Stefano; Bargellini, Annalisa; Bassoli, Agnese; Bosi, Gabriele; Lombardi, Francesco; Tolomelli, Stefano; Lusuardi, Mirco; Merlo, Andrea

    2018-01-11

    Falls are a common adverse event in both elderly inpatients and patients admitted to rehabilitation units. The Hendrich Fall Risk Model II (HIIFRM) has been already tested in all hospital wards with high fall rates, with the exception of the rehabilitation setting. This study's aim is to address the feasibility and predictive performances of HIIFRM in a hospital rehabilitation department. A 6 months prospective study in a Italian rehabilitation department with patients from orthopaedic, pulmonary, and neurological rehabilitation wards. All admitted patients were enrolled and assessed within 24 h of admission by means of the HIIFRM. The occurrence of falls was checked and recorded daily. HIIFRM feasibility was assessed as the percentage of successful administrations at admission. HIIFRM predictive performance was determined in terms of area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), best cutoff, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, along with their asymptotic 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). One hundred ninety-one patents were admitted. HIIFRM was feasible in 147 cases (77%), 11 of which suffered a fall (7.5%). Failures in administration were mainly due to bedridden patients (e.g. minimally conscious state, vegetative state). AUC was 0.779(0.685-0.873). The original HIIFRM cutoff of 5 led to a sensitivity of 100% with a mere specificity of 49%(40-57%), thus suggesting using higher cutoffs. Moreover, the median score for non-fallers at rehabilitation units was higher than that reported in literature for geriatric non fallers. The best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity was obtained by using a cutoff of 8. This lead to sensitivity = 73%(46-99%), specificity = 72%(65-80%), positive predictive value = 17% and negative predictive value = 97%. These results support the use of the HIIFRM as a predictive tool. The HIIFRM showed satisfactory feasibility and predictive performances in

  14. Urinary engrailed-2 (EN2) levels predict tumour volume in men undergoing radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pandha, Hardev; Sørensen, Karina Dalsgaard; Ørntoft, Torben Falck

    2012-01-01

    ELISA test and is not dependent on other parameters, even PSA, unlike all the other current biomarkers under evaluation. To date, no marker correlates with the amount of cancer present - the present study shows this positive correlation with EN2 in men undergoing prostatectomy. The potential utility...... in men who had undergone radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer. To date, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels have not reliably predicted prostate cancer volume. Reliable volume indicator biomarker(s) may aid management decisions, e.g. active treatment vs active surveillance. PATIENTS......: In all, 88 of the whole cohort of 125 men (70%) were positive for EN2 in their urine (>42.5 µg/L); 38/58 (65%) men where cancer volume data was available. There was no statistical relationship between urinary EN2 levels and serum PSA levels. PSA levels did not correlate with tumour stage, combined...

  15. Motivational Selectivity Prospectively Predicts Couples' Realization of Their Goal to Have a Child

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauers, Antje; Böhnke, Anja; Riediger, Michaela

    2013-01-01

    Developmental theories have emphasized that motivational selectivity--focusing on a few goals instead of "wanting it all"--regulates development in individuals, dyads, or groups. We provide first evidence that this motivational strategy predicts an objective, goal-related developmental outcome years later. We followed up on initially…

  16. Early EEG for outcome prediction of postanoxic coma : Prospective cohort study with cost-minimization analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sondag, Lotte; Ruijter, Barry J.; Tjepkema-Cloostermans, Marleen C.; Beishuizen, Albertus; Bosch, Frank H.; van Til, Janine A.; van Putten, Michel J.A.M.; Hofmeijer, Jeannette

    2017-01-01

    Background: We recently showed that electroencephalography (EEG) patterns within the first 24 hours robustly contribute to multimodal prediction of poor or good neurological outcome of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. Here, we confirm these results and present a cost-minimization analysis.

  17. Prediction of renal mass aggressiveness using clinical and radiographic features: a global, multicentre prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Golan, Shay; Eggener, Scott; Subotic, Svetozar; Barret, Eric; Cormio, Luigi; Naito, Seiji; Tefekli, Ahmet; Pilar Laguna Pes, M.

    2016-01-01

    To examine the ability of preoperative clinical characteristics to predict histological features of renal masses (RMs). Data from consecutive patients with clinical stage I RMs treated surgically between 2010 and 2011 in the Clinical Research Office of Endourology Society (CROES) Renal Mass Registry

  18. Utility of Hippocrates' prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Montgomery, Patrick R

    2014-12-15

    To determine if one of Hippocrates' aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Time to death. We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. © St John et al 2014.

  19. Utility of Hippocrates’ prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Patrick R

    2014-01-01

    Objective To determine if one of Hippocrates’ aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Design Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Setting Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. Participants 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Main outcome measure Time to death. Methods We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. Results The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. Conclusion An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. PMID:25512328

  20. Cognitive Models of Risky Choice: Parameter Stability and Predictive Accuracy of Prospect Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glockner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-01-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are…

  1. Comparisons of prediction models of quality of life after laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a longitudinal prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Yi Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Few studies of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC outcome have used longitudinal data for more than two years. Moreover, no studies have considered group differences in factors other than outcome such as age and nonsurgical treatment. Additionally, almost all published articles agree that the essential issue of the internal validity (reproducibility of the artificial neural network (ANN, support vector machine (SVM, Gaussian process regression (GPR and multiple linear regression (MLR models has not been adequately addressed. This study proposed to validate the use of these models for predicting quality of life (QOL after LC and to compare the predictive capability of ANNs with that of SVM, GPR and MLR. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 400 LC patients completed the SF-36 and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index at baseline and at 2 years postoperatively. The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the system models were mean square error (MSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the variables in order of importance. Compared to SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model generally had smaller MSE and MAPE values in the training data set and test data set. Most ANN models had MAPE values ranging from 4.20% to 8.60%, and most had high prediction accuracy. The global sensitivity analysis also showed that preoperative functional status was the best parameter for predicting QOL after LC. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Compared with SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model in this study was more accurate in predicting patient-reported QOL and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

  2. Prospective evaluation of biomarkers for prediction of quality of life in community-acquired pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickler, Manuela; Schaffner, Daniela; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Ottiger, Manuel; Thomann, Robert; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

    2016-11-01

    Most clinical research investigated prognostic biomarkers for their ability to predict cardiovascular events or mortality. It is unknown whether biomarkers allow prediction of quality of life (QoL) after survival of the acute event. Herein, we investigated the prognostic potential of well-established inflammatory/cardiovascular blood biomarkers including white blood cells (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), pro-adrenomedullin (proADM) and pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (proANP) in regard to a decline in QoL in a well-defined cohort of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Within this secondary analysis including 753 patients with a final inpatient diagnosis of CAP from a multicenter trial, we investigated associations between admission biomarker levels and decline in QoL assessed by the EQ-5D health questionnaire from admission to day 30 and after 6 years. Admission proADM and proANP levels significantly predicted decline of the weighted EQ-5D index after 30 days (n=753) with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 2.0 ([95% CI 1.1-3.8]; p=0.027) and 3.7 ([95% CI 2.2-6.0]; pscale (VAS). Initial WBC, PCT and CRP values did not well predict QoL at any time point. ProADM and proANP accurately predict short- and long-term decline in QoL across most dimensions in CAP patients. It will be interesting to reveal underlying physiopathology in future studies.

  3. Does the pancreatic volume reduction rate using serial computed tomographic volumetry predict new onset diabetes after pancreaticoduodenectomy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Sung Pil; Seo, Hyung-Il; Kim, Suk; Kim, Dong Uk; Baek, Dong Hoon

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Volume reduction of the pancreatic tissues following a pancreatectomy can lead to the deterioration of glucose homeostasis. This is defined as pancreatogenic diabetes mellitus (DM). The objective of this study was to investigate the occurrence of new-onset DM (NODM) and evaluate the risk factors, including the pancreas volume reduction rate in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Sixty-six patients without preoperative DM underwent PD for periampullary tumors between August 2007 and December 2012 and were included in this analysis. These patients underwent follow-up tests and abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan 7 days, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, and 36 months after the operation. The pancreas volume reduction rate was calculated by CT volumetry. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to the postoperative development of DM. After PD, newly diagnosed DM occurred in 16 patients (24.2%). The incidence of DM was highest among patients with carcinomas with an advanced T stage. The pancreatic volume reduction rate after 6 and 12 months in the NODM group was significantly higher than the normal glucose group in the univariate analysis. In the multivariate analysis, the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM (P = 0.002). This study suggests that the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM. CT volumetry of the pancreas may be useful as a predictor of NODM after PD. PMID:28353594

  4. Neural Reactivity to Emotional Stimuli Prospectively Predicts the Impact of a Natural Disaster on Psychiatric Symptoms in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kujawa, Autumn; Hajcak, Greg; Danzig, Allison P; Black, Sarah R; Bromet, Evelyn J; Carlson, Gabrielle A; Kotov, Roman; Klein, Daniel N

    2016-09-01

    Natural disasters expose entire communities to stress and trauma, leading to increased risk for psychiatric symptoms. Yet, the majority of exposed individuals are resilient, highlighting the importance of identifying underlying factors that contribute to outcomes. The current study was part of a larger prospective study of children in Long Island, New York (n = 260). At age 9, children viewed unpleasant and pleasant images while the late positive potential (LPP), an event-related potential component that reflects sustained attention toward salient information, was measured. Following the event-related potential assessment, Hurricane Sandy, the second costliest hurricane in United States history, hit the region. Eight weeks after the hurricane, mothers reported on exposure to hurricane-related stress and children's internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Symptoms were reassessed 8 months after the hurricane. The LPP predicted both internalizing and externalizing symptoms after accounting for prehurricane symptomatology and interacted with stress to predict externalizing symptoms. Among children exposed to higher levels of hurricane-related stress, enhanced neural reactivity to unpleasant images predicted greater externalizing symptoms 8 weeks after the disaster, while greater neural reactivity to pleasant images predicted lower externalizing symptoms. Moreover, interactions between the LPP and stress continued to predict externalizing symptoms 8 months after the hurricane. Results indicate that heightened neural reactivity and attention toward unpleasant information, as measured by the LPP, predispose children to psychiatric symptoms when exposed to higher levels of stress related to natural disasters, while greater reactivity to and processing of pleasant information may be a protective factor. Copyright © 2015 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity and sedentary behaviors, but not reflective intentions, prospectively predict non-exercise activity thermogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheval, Boris; Sarrazin, Philippe; Pelletier, Luc

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the determinants of non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) is crucial, given its extensive health benefits. Some scholars have assumed that a proneness to react differently to environmental cues promoting sedentary versus active behaviors could be responsible for inter-individual differences in NEAT. In line with this reflection and grounded on the Reflective-Impulsive Model, we test the assumption that impulsive processes related to sedentary and physical activity behaviors can prospectively predict NEAT, operationalized as spontaneous effort exerted to maintain low intensity muscle contractions within the release phases of an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. Participants (n = 91) completed a questionnaire assessing their intentions to adopt physical activity behaviors and a manikin task to assess impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity behaviors (IAPA) and sedentary behaviors (IASB). Participants were then instructed to perform a maximal handgrip strength task and an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. As hypothesized, multilevel regression analyses revealed that spontaneous effort was (a) positively predicted by IAPA, (b) negatively predicted by IASB, and (c) was not predicted by physical activity intentions, after controlling for some confounding variables such as age, sex, usual PA level and average force provided during the maximal-contraction phases of the task. These effects remained constant throughout all the phases of the task. This study demonstrated that impulsive processes may play a unique role in predicting spontaneous physical activity behaviors. Theoretically, this finding reinforces the utility of a motivational approach based on dual-process models to explain inter-individual differences in NEAT. Implications for health behavior theories and behavior change interventions are outlined.

  6. Impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity and sedentary behaviors, but not reflective intentions, prospectively predict non-exercise activity thermogenesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Cheval

    Full Text Available Understanding the determinants of non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT is crucial, given its extensive health benefits. Some scholars have assumed that a proneness to react differently to environmental cues promoting sedentary versus active behaviors could be responsible for inter-individual differences in NEAT. In line with this reflection and grounded on the Reflective-Impulsive Model, we test the assumption that impulsive processes related to sedentary and physical activity behaviors can prospectively predict NEAT, operationalized as spontaneous effort exerted to maintain low intensity muscle contractions within the release phases of an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. Participants (n = 91 completed a questionnaire assessing their intentions to adopt physical activity behaviors and a manikin task to assess impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity behaviors (IAPA and sedentary behaviors (IASB. Participants were then instructed to perform a maximal handgrip strength task and an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. As hypothesized, multilevel regression analyses revealed that spontaneous effort was (a positively predicted by IAPA, (b negatively predicted by IASB, and (c was not predicted by physical activity intentions, after controlling for some confounding variables such as age, sex, usual PA level and average force provided during the maximal-contraction phases of the task. These effects remained constant throughout all the phases of the task. This study demonstrated that impulsive processes may play a unique role in predicting spontaneous physical activity behaviors. Theoretically, this finding reinforces the utility of a motivational approach based on dual-process models to explain inter-individual differences in NEAT. Implications for health behavior theories and behavior change interventions are outlined.

  7. Validation of the cephalosporin intradermal skin test for predicting immediate hypersensitivity: a prospective study with drug challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, S-Y; Park, S Y; Kim, S; Lee, T; Lee, Y S; Kwon, H-S; Cho, Y S; Moon, H-B; Kim, T-B

    2013-07-01

    Cephalosporin is a major offending agent in terms of drug hypersensitivity along with penicillin. Cephalosporin intradermal skin tests (IDTs) have been widely used; however, their validity for predicting immediate hypersensitivity has not been studied. This study aimed to determine the predictive value of cephalosporin intradermal skin testing before administration of the drug. We prospectively conducted IDTs with four cephalosporins, one each of selected first-, second-, third-, or fourth-generation cephalosporins: ceftezol; cefotetan or cefamandole; ceftriaxone or cefotaxime; and flomoxef, respectively, as well as with penicillin G. After the skin test, whatever the result, one of the tested cephalosporins was administered intravenously and the patient was carefully observed. We recruited 1421 patients who required preoperative cephalosporins. Seventy-four patients (74/1421, 5.2%) were positive to at least one cephalosporin. However, none of responders had immediate hypersensitivity reactions after a challenge dose of the same or different cephalosporin, which were positive in the skin test. Four patients who suffered generalized urticaria and itching after challenge gave negative skin tests for the corresponding drug. The IDT for cephalosporin had a sensitivity of 0%, a specificity of 97.5%, a negative predictive value of 99.7%, and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0%, when challenged with the same drugs that were positive in the skin test. Routine skin testing with a cephalosporin before its administration is not useful for predicting immediate hypersensitivity because of the extremely low sensitivity and PPV of the skin test (CRIS registration no. KCT0000455). © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Interaction effects in the theory of planned behaviour: Predicting fruit and vegetable consumption in three prospective cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kothe, Emily J; Mullan, Barbara A

    2015-09-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has been criticized for not including interactions between major constructs thought to underlie behaviour. This study investigated the application of the TPB to the prediction of fruit and vegetable consumption across three prospective cohorts. The primary aim of the study was to investigate whether interactions between major constructs in the theory would increase the ability of the model to predict intention to consume fruit and vegetables (i.e., attitude × perceived behavioural control [PBC], subjective norm × PBC, subjective norm × attitude) and self-reported fruit and vegetable intake (i.e., PBC × intention). Secondary data analysis from three cohorts: One predictive study (cohort 1) and two intervention studies (cohorts 2 and 3). Participants completed a TPB measure at baseline and a measure of fruit and vegetable intake at 1 week (cohort 1; n = 90) or 1 month (cohorts 2 and 3; n = 296). Attitude moderated the impact of PBC on intention. PBC moderated the impact of intention on behaviour at 1 week but not 1 month. The variance accounted for by the interactions was small. However, the presence of interactions between constructs within the TPB demonstrates a need to consider interactions between variables within the TPB in both theoretical and applied research using the model. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  9. QRS analysis using wavelet transformation for the prediction of response to cardiac resynchronization therapy: a prospective pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassilikos, Vassilios P; Mantziari, Lilian; Dakos, Georgios; Kamperidis, Vasileios; Chouvarda, Ioanna; Chatzizisis, Yiannis S; Kalpidis, Panagiotis; Theofilogiannakos, Efstratios; Paraskevaidis, Stelios; Karvounis, Haralambos; Mochlas, Sotirios; Maglaveras, Nikolaos; Styliadis, Ioannis H

    2014-01-01

    Wider QRS and left bundle branch block morphology are related to response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). A novel time-frequency analysis of the QRS complex may provide additional information in predicting response to CRT. Signal-averaged electrocardiograms were prospectively recorded, before CRT, in orthogonal leads and QRS decomposition in three frequency bands was performed using the Morlet wavelet transformation. Thirty eight patients (age 65±10years, 31 males) were studied. CRT responders (n=28) had wider baseline QRS compared to non-responders and lower QRS energies in all frequency bands. The combination of QRS duration and mean energy in the high frequency band had the best predicting ability (AUC 0.833, 95%CI 0.705-0.962, p=0.002) followed by the maximum energy in the high frequency band (AUC 0.811, 95%CI 0.663-0.960, p=0.004). Wavelet transformation of the QRS complex is useful in predicting response to CRT. © 2013.

  10. Sense of coherence predicts post-myocardial infarction trajectory of leisure time physical activity: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerber Yariv

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical activity confers a survival advantage after myocardial infarction (MI, yet the majority of post-MI patients are not regularly active. Since sense of coherence (SOC has been associated with health outcomes and some health behaviours, we investigated whether it plays a role in post-MI physical activity. We examined the predictive role of SOC in the long-term trajectory of leisure time physical activity (LTPA after MI using a prospective cohort design. Methods A cohort of 643 patients aged ≤ 65 years admitted to hospital in central Israel with incident MI between February 1992 and February 1993 were followed up for 13 years. Socioeconomic, clinical and psychological factors, including SOC, were assessed at baseline, and LTPA was self-reported on 5 separate occasions during follow-up. The predictive role of SOC in long-term trajectory of LTPA was assessed using generalized estimating equations. Results SOC was consistently associated with engagement in LTPA throughout follow-up. Patients in the lowest SOC tertile had almost twice the odds (odds ratio,1.99; 95% confidence interval,1.52-2.60 of decreasing their engagement in LTPA as those in the highest tertile. A strong association remained after controlling for disease severity, depression, sociodemographic and clinical factors. Conclusion Our evidence suggests that SOC predicts LTPA trajectory post-MI. Assessment of SOC can help identify high-risk MI survivors, who may require additional help in following secondary prevention recommendations which can dramatically improve prognosis.

  11. Poor self-control and harsh punishment in childhood prospectively predict borderline personality symptoms in adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallquist, Michael N; Hipwell, Alison E; Stepp, Stephanie D

    2015-08-01

    Developmental theories of borderline personality disorder (BPD) propose that harsh, invalidating parenting of a child with poor self-control and heightened negative emotionality often leads to a coercive cycle of parent-child transactions that increase risk for BPD symptoms such as emotion dysregulation. Although parenting practices and child temperament have previously been linked with BPD, less is known about the prospective influences of caregiver and child characteristics. Using annual longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Girls Study (n = 2,450), our study examined how reciprocal influences among harsh parenting, self-control, and negative emotionality between ages 5 and 14 predicted the development of BPD symptoms in adolescent girls ages 14 to 17. Consistent with developmental theories, we found that harsh punishment, poor self-control, and negative emotionality predicted BPD symptom severity at age 14. Only worsening self-control between ages 12 and 14, however, predicted growth in BPD symptoms from 14 to 17. Furthermore, the effects of harsh punishment and poor self-control on age 14 BPD symptoms were partially mediated by their earlier reciprocal effects on each other between ages 5 and 14. Our findings underscore the need to address both child and parental contributions to dysfunctional transactions in order to stem the development of BPD symptoms. Moreover, problems with self-regulation in early adolescence may indicate heightened risk for subsequent BPD. Altogether, these results increase our understanding of developmental trajectories associated with BPD symptoms in adolescent girls. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. [Predicting bipolar disorder: what can we learn from prospective cohort studies?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffroy, P A; Leboyer, M; Scott, J

    2015-02-01

    Bipolar disorder (BD) is a life course illness; and there is increasing awareness of the many personal, social and economic consequences of the illness in older adults. However, it is important to emphasize that BD usually begins in late adolescence or early adulthood and 75 % cases have a first episode in this age period. This early onset and the associated level of disability mean that BD is the 4th leading cause of global disease burden in adolescents and young adults. Internationally, mental health services are increasingly striving to diagnose and treat BD as early as possible to try to prevent poor outcomes. In addition, researchers are using methods employed previously in psychosis studies as these may help us to recognise the earliest manifestations of BD. If it is possible to identify sub-threshold and 'ultra high risk' syndromes for BD, this might lead to new interventions that could target the prevention of first episodes of mania. One approach to understanding these risk syndromes is to examine prospective community cohort studies and BD offspring studies. This paper reviews prospective cohort studies that identify robust risk factors in early illness onset, which was defined as age at onset of BD between 15-25 years. We found that although > 50 % of individuals who developed BD had developed a putative BD prodrome prior to 14 years of age, this usually began with non-specific symptoms that overlap with similar presentations for those who later develop psychosis or severe depression. However, there are some features that seem to better identify groups with a BD "at-risk" syndrome. This syndrome is frequently composed of several factors such as mood lability, depressive episodes, prior anxiety, sleep and/or conduct disorders, attention and concentration impairment, altered energy patterns, and a family history of mania and/or depression. The course of these early predictors suggests the precursor syndromes are composed of mini-clusters of symptoms many

  13. The occipitofrontal circumference: reliable prediction of the intracranial volume in children with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijken, Bianca Francisca Maria; den Ottelander, Bianca Kelly; van Veelen, Marie-Lise Charlotte; Lequin, Maarten Hans; Mathijssen, Irene Margreet Jacqueline

    2015-05-01

    OBJECT Patients with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis are characterized by the premature fusion of one or more cranial sutures. These patients are at risk for developing elevated intracranial pressure (ICP). There are several factors known to contribute to elevated ICP in these patients, including craniocerebral disproportion, hydrocephalus, venous hypertension, and obstructive sleep apnea. However, the causal mechanism is unknown, and patients develop elevated ICP even after skull surgery. In clinical practice, the occipitofrontal circumference (OFC) is used as an indirect measure for intracranial volume (ICV), to evaluate skull growth. However, it remains unknown whether OFC is a reliable predictor of ICV in patients with a severe skull deformity. Therefore, in this study the authors evaluated the relation between ICV and OFC. METHODS Eighty-four CT scans obtained in 69 patients with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis treated at the Erasmus University Medical Center-Sophia Children's Hospital were included. The ICV was calculated based on CT scans by using autosegmentation with an HU threshold CT scans and OFC measurements were matched based on a maximum amount of the time that was allowed between these examinations, which was dependent on age. A Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated to evaluate the correlations between OFC and ICV. The predictive value of OFC, age, and sex on ICV was then further evaluated using a univariate linear mixed model. The significant factors in the univariate analysis were subsequently entered in a multivariate mixed model. RESULTS The correlations found between OFC and ICV were r = 0.908 for the total group (p < 0.001), r = 0.981 for Apert (p < 0.001), r = 0.867 for Crouzon-Pfeiffer (p < 0.001), r = 0.989 for Muenke (p < 0.001), r = 0.858 for Saethre- Chotzen syndrome (p = 0.001), and r = 0.917 for complex craniosynostosis (p < 0.001). Age and OFC were significant predictors of ICV in the univariate linear mixed

  14. Prediction of the Individual Wave Overtopping Volumes of a Wave Energy Converter using Experimental Testing and First Numerical Model Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Victor, L.; Troch, P.; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2009-01-01

    For overtopping wave energy converters (WECs) a more efficient energy conversion can be achieved when the volumes of water, wave by wave, that enter their reservoir are known and can be predicted. A numerical tool is being developed using a commercial CFD-solver to study and optimize...... nearshore 2Dstructure. First numerical model results are given for a specific test with regular waves, and are compared with the corresponding experimental results in this paper....

  15. Predictive Treatment Management: Incorporating a Predictive Tumor Response Model Into Robust Prospective Treatment Planning for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Pengpeng, E-mail: zhangp@mskcc.org [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Yorke, Ellen; Hu, Yu-Chi; Mageras, Gig [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Rimner, Andreas [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Deasy, Joseph O. [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States)

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: We hypothesized that a treatment planning technique that incorporates predicted lung tumor regression into optimization, predictive treatment planning (PTP), could allow dose escalation to the residual tumor while maintaining coverage of the initial target without increasing dose to surrounding organs at risk (OARs). Methods and Materials: We created a model to estimate the geometric presence of residual tumors after radiation therapy using planning computed tomography (CT) and weekly cone beam CT scans of 5 lung cancer patients. For planning purposes, we modeled the dynamic process of tumor shrinkage by morphing the original planning target volume (PTV{sub orig}) in 3 equispaced steps to the predicted residue (PTV{sub pred}). Patients were treated with a uniform prescription dose to PTV{sub orig}. By contrast, PTP optimization started with the same prescription dose to PTV{sub orig} but linearly increased the dose at each step, until reaching the highest dose achievable to PTV{sub pred} consistent with OAR limits. This method is compared with midcourse adaptive replanning. Results: Initial parenchymal gross tumor volume (GTV) ranged from 3.6 to 186.5 cm{sup 3}. On average, the primary GTV and PTV decreased by 39% and 27%, respectively, at the end of treatment. The PTP approach gave PTV{sub orig} at least the prescription dose, and it increased the mean dose of the true residual tumor by an average of 6.0 Gy above the adaptive approach. Conclusions: PTP, incorporating a tumor regression model from the start, represents a new approach to increase tumor dose without increasing toxicities, and reduce clinical workload compared with the adaptive approach, although model verification using per-patient midcourse imaging would be prudent.

  16. A prospective examination of whether childhood sexual abuse predicts subsequent sexual offending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widom, Cathy Spatz; Massey, Christina

    2015-01-01

    Childhood sexual abuse has been assumed to increase the risk for sexual offending. However, despite methodological limitations of prior research, public policies and clinical practice have been based on this assumption. To empirically examine the commonly held belief that sexually abused children grow up to become sexual offenders and specialize in sex crimes. This prospective cohort study and archival records check included cases and control individuals originally from a metropolitan county in the Midwest. Children with substantiated cases of physical and sexual abuse and neglect (aged 0-11 years) were matched with children without such histories on the basis of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and approximate family social class (908 cases and 667 control individuals). Both groups were followed up into adulthood (mean age, 51 years). The court cases were from 1967 to 1971; the follow-up extended to 2013. Criminal history information was collected from federal and state law enforcement agency records at 3 points in time and from state sex offender registries. Overall, individuals with histories of childhood abuse and neglect were at increased risk for being arrested for a sex crime compared with control individuals (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.17; 95% CI, 1.38-3.40), controlling for age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Specifically, individuals with histories of physical abuse (AOR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.02-4.16) and neglect (AOR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.39-3.51) were at significantly increased risk for arrest for sex offenses, whereas for sexual abuse, the AOR (2.13; 95% CI, 0.83-5.47) did not reach significance. Physically abused and neglected males (not females) were at increased risk and physically abused males also had a higher mean number of sex crime arrests compared with control individuals. The results did not provide support for sex crime specialization. The widespread belief that sexually abused children are uniquely at risk to become sex offenders was not supported by

  17. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T. [Allied-Signal Aerospace Co., Phoenix, AZ (United States). Garrett Engine Div.] [and others

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  18. Characterization of Mixtures. Part 2: QSPR Models for Prediction of Excess Molar Volume and Liquid Density Using Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajmani, Subhash; Rogers, Stephen C; Barley, Mark H; Burgess, Andrew N; Livingstone, David J

    2010-09-17

    In our earlier work, we have demonstrated that it is possible to characterize binary mixtures using single component descriptors by applying various mixing rules. We also showed that these methods were successful in building predictive QSPR models to study various mixture properties of interest. Here in, we developed a QSPR model of an excess thermodynamic property of binary mixtures i.e. excess molar volume (V(E) ). In the present study, we use a set of mixture descriptors which we earlier designed to specifically account for intermolecular interactions between the components of a mixture and applied successfully to the prediction of infinite-dilution activity coefficients using neural networks (part 1 of this series). We obtain a significant QSPR model for the prediction of excess molar volume (V(E) ) using consensus neural networks and five mixture descriptors. We find that hydrogen bond and thermodynamic descriptors are the most important in determining excess molar volume (V(E) ), which is in line with the theory of intermolecular forces governing excess mixture properties. The results also suggest that the mixture descriptors utilized herein may be sufficient to model a wide variety of properties of binary and possibly even more complex mixtures. Copyright © 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....

  20. Predictive models of pain following root canal treatment: a prospective clinical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, A; de la Macorra, J C; Hidalgo, J J; Azabal, M

    2013-08-01

    To determine the probability of the incidence, intensity, duration and triggering of post-endodontic pain, considering factors related to the patient (age, gender, medical evaluation) and to the affected tooth (group, location, number of canals, pulp vitality, preoperative pain, periapical radiolucencies, previous emergency access, presence of occlusal contacts with antagonist). A total of 500 one-visit root canal treatments (RCTs) were performed on patients referred to an endodontist. Shaping of root canals was performed manually with Gates-Glidden drills and K-Flexofiles, and apical patency was maintained with a size 10 file. A 5% NaOCl solution was used for irrigation, and canals were filled with lateral compaction and AH-Plus sealer. Independent factors were recorded during the treatment, and characteristics of post-endodontic pain (incidence, intensity, type and duration) were later surveyed through questionnaires. Of the 500 questionnaires, 374 were properly returned and split in two groups for two different statistical purposes: 316 cases were used to adjust the logistic regression models to predict each characteristic of post-endodontic pain using predictive factors, and the remaining 58 cases were used to test the validity of each model. The predictive models showed that the incidence of post-endodontic pain was significantly lower when the treated tooth was not a molar (P = 0.003), demonstrated periapical radiolucencies (P = 0.003), had no history of previous pain (P = 0.006) or emergency endodontic treatment (P = 0.045) and had no occlusal contact (P endodontic pain were generated and validated taking account of the interrelation of multiple concomitant clinical factors. A predictive model for triggering post-endodontic pain could not be established. © 2013 International Endodontic Journal. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Archiving Nganyi Weatherlore and Connecting with Modern Science of Rain Prediction: Challenges and Prospects

    OpenAIRE

    Simala, K Inyani

    2010-01-01

    World Oral Literature Project Workshop 2010 This paper discusses the integration of indigenous knowledge about rain prediction with modern meteorological forecasts in climate risk management to support community-based adaptation. The paper is based on research among the Nganyi community of Western Kenya to increase the visibility, effectiveness, sustainability and acceptability of local knowledge by integrating it with modern science rainfall forecasts. This research found that community m...

  2. Intrinsic predictive factors for ankle sprain in active university students: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Noronha, M; França, L C; Haupenthal, A; Nunes, G S

    2013-10-01

    The ankle is the joint most affected among the sports-related injuries. The current study investigated whether certain intrinsic factors could predict ankle sprains in active students. The 125 participants were submitted to a baseline assessment in a single session were then followed-up for 52 weeks regarding the occurrence of sprain. The baseline assessment were performed in both ankles and included the questionnaire Cumberland ankle instability tool - Portuguese, the foot lift test, dorsiflexion range of motion, Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT), the side recognition task, body mass index, and history of previous sprain. Two groups were used for analysis: one with those who suffered an ankle sprain and the other with those who did not suffer an ankle sprain. After Cox regression analysis, participants with history of previous sprain were twice as likely to suffer subsequent sprains [hazard ratio (HR) 2.21 and 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-4.57] and people with better performance on the SEBT in the postero-lateral (PL) direction were less likely to suffer a sprain (HR 0.96 and 95% CI 0.92-0.99). History of previous sprain was the strongest predictive factor and a weak performance on SEBT PL was also considered a predictive factor for ankle sprains. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Prospects for development of unified global flood observation and prediction systems (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Floods are among the most damaging of natural hazards, with global flood losses in 2011 alone estimated to have exceeded $100B. Historically, flood economic damages have been highest in the developed world (due in part to encroachment on historical flood plains), but loss of life, and human impacts have been greatest in the developing world. However, as the 2011 Thailand floods show, industrializing countries, many of which do not have well developed flood protection systems, are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages as they become more industrialized. At present, unified global flood observation and prediction systems are in their infancy; notwithstanding that global weather forecasting is a mature field. The summary for this session identifies two evolving capabilities that hold promise for development of more sophisticated global flood forecast systems: global hydrologic models and satellite remote sensing (primarily of precipitation, but also of flood inundation). To this I would add the increasing sophistication and accuracy of global precipitation analysis (and forecast) fields from numerical weather prediction models. In this brief overview, I will review progress in all three areas, and especially the evolution of hydrologic data assimilation which integrates modeling and data sources. I will also comment on inter-governmental and inter-agency cooperation, and related issues that have impeded progress in the development and utilization of global flood observation and prediction systems.

  4. Blinded prospective evaluation of computer-based mechanistic schizophrenia disease model for predicting drug response.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Geerts

    Full Text Available The tremendous advances in understanding the neurobiological circuits involved in schizophrenia have not translated into more effective treatments. An alternative strategy is to use a recently published 'Quantitative Systems Pharmacology' computer-based mechanistic disease model of cortical/subcortical and striatal circuits based upon preclinical physiology, human pathology and pharmacology. The physiology of 27 relevant dopamine, serotonin, acetylcholine, norepinephrine, gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA and glutamate-mediated targets is calibrated using retrospective clinical data on 24 different antipsychotics. The model was challenged to predict quantitatively the clinical outcome in a blinded fashion of two experimental antipsychotic drugs; JNJ37822681, a highly selective low-affinity dopamine D(2 antagonist and ocaperidone, a very high affinity dopamine D(2 antagonist, using only pharmacology and human positron emission tomography (PET imaging data. The model correctly predicted the lower performance of JNJ37822681 on the positive and negative syndrome scale (PANSS total score and the higher extra-pyramidal symptom (EPS liability compared to olanzapine and the relative performance of ocaperidone against olanzapine, but did not predict the absolute PANSS total score outcome and EPS liability for ocaperidone, possibly due to placebo responses and EPS assessment methods. Because of its virtual nature, this modeling approach can support central nervous system research and development by accounting for unique human drug properties, such as human metabolites, exposure, genotypes and off-target effects and can be a helpful tool for drug discovery and development.

  5. Predictive values of psychiatric symptoms for internet addiction in adolescents: a 2-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Chih-Hung; Yen, Ju-Yu; Chen, Cheng-Sheng; Yeh, Yi-Chun; Yen, Cheng-Fang

    2009-10-01

    To evaluate the predictive values of psychiatric symptoms for the occurrence of Internet addiction and to determine the sex differences in the predictive value of psychiatric symptoms for the occurrence of Internet addiction in adolescents. Internet addiction, depression, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, social phobia, and hostility were assessed by self-reported questionnaires. Participants were then invited to be assessed for Internet addiction 6, 12, and 24 months later (the second, third, and fourth assessments, respectively). Ten junior high schools in southern Taiwan. A total of 2293 (1179 boys and 1114 girls) adolescents participated in the initial investigation. The course of time. Internet addiction as assessed using the Chen Internet Addiction Scale. Depression, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, social phobia, and hostility were found to predict the occurrence of Internet addiction in the 2-year follow-up, and hostility and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder were the most significant predictors of Internet addiction in male and female adolescents, respectively. These results suggest that attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, hostility, depression, and social phobia should be detected early on and intervention carried out to prevent Internet addiction in adolescents. Also, sex differences in psychiatric comorbidity should be taken into consideration when developing prevention and intervention strategies for Internet addiction.

  6. Further comprehension of natural gas accumulation, distribution, and prediction prospects in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In-depth research reveals that the natural gas accumulation and distribution are characterized by cycle, sequence, equilibrium, traceability, and multi-stage. To be specific, every geotectonic cycle represents a gas reservoir forming system where natural gas is generated, migrated, accumulated, and formed into a reservoir in a certain play. Essentially, hydrocarbon accumulation occurs when migration force and resistance reach an equilibrium. In this situation, the closer to the source rock, the higher the accumulation efficiency is. Historically, reservoirs were formed in multiple phases. Moreover, zones in source rocks and adjacent to source rocks, unconformity belts, and faulted anticline belts are favorable areas to finding large gas fields. Apart from the common unconformity belts and faulted anticline belts, in-source and near-source zones should be considered as critical targets for future exploration. Subsequent exploration should focus on Upper Palaeozoic in the southeastern Ordos Basin, Triassic in southwestern Sichuan Basin, Jurassic in the northern section of the Kuqa Depression and other zones where no great breakthroughs have been made. Keywords: Large gas field, Distribution characteristics, Potential zone, Prospect

  7. Functional Performances on Admission Predict In-Hospital Falls, Injurious Falls, and Fractures in Older Patients: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hars, Mélany; Audet, Marie-Claude; Herrmann, François; De Chassey, Jean; Rizzoli, René; Reny, Jean-Luc; Gold, Gabriel; Ferrari, Serge; Trombetti, Andrea

    2018-05-01

    Falls are common among older inpatients and remain a great challenge for hospitals. Despite the relevance of physical impairments to falls, the prognostic value of performance-based functional measures for in-hospital falls and injurious falls remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the predictive ability and accuracy of various functional tests administered at or close to admission in a geriatric hospital to identify in-hospital fallers and injurious fallers. In this prospective study, conducted in a geriatric hospital in Geneva, Switzerland, 807 inpatients (mean age 85.0 years) were subjected to a battery of functional tests administered by physiotherapists within 3 days (interquartile range 1 to 6) of admission, including Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), simplified Tinetti, and Timed Up and Go tests. Patients were prospectively followed up for falls and injurious falls until discharge using mandatory standardized incident report forms and electronic patients' records. During a median length of hospital stay of 23 days (interquartile range 14 to 36), 329 falls occurred in 189 (23.4%) patients, including 161 injurious falls of which 24 were serious. In-hospital fallers displayed significantly poorer functional performances at admission on all tests compared with non-fallers (p performances on all functional tests predicted in-hospital falls and injurious falls (p poor functional performances, as assessed by SPPB, are independent predictors of in-hospital falls, injurious falls, and fractures in patients admitted to a geriatric hospital. These findings should help to design preventive strategies for in-hospital falls and support the adoption of objective performance-based functional measures into routine hospital practice. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  8. Does message framing predict willingness to participate in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial: an application of Prospect Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangeli, Michael; Kafaar, Zuhayr; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie; Bullemor-Day, Philippa

    2013-01-01

    It is vital that enough participants are willing to participate in clinical trials to test HIV vaccines adequately. It is, therefore, necessary to explore what affects peoples' willingness to participate (WTP) in such trials. Studies have only examined individual factors associated with WTP and not the effect of messages about trial participation on potential participants (e.g., whether losses or gains are emphasized, or whether the outcome is certain or uncertain). This study explores whether the effects of message framing on WTP in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial are consistent with Prospect Theory. This theory suggests that people are fundamentally risk averse and that (1) under conditions of low risk and high certainty, gain-framed messages will be influential (2) under conditions of high risk and low certainty, loss-framed messages will be influential. This cross-sectional study recruited 283 HIV-negative students from a South African university who were given a questionnaire that contained matched certain gain-framed, certain loss-framed, uncertain gain-framed, and uncertain loss-framed statements based on common barriers and facilitators of WTP. Participants were asked to rate how likely each statement was to result in their participation in a hypothetical preventative HIV vaccine trial. Consistent with Prospect Theory predictions, for certain outcomes, gain-framed messages were more likely to result in WTP than loss-framed messages. Inconsistent with predictions, loss-framed message were not more likely to be related to WTP for uncertain outcomes than gain-framed messages. Older students were less likely to express their WTP across the different message frames. Recruitment for HIV vaccine trials should pay attention to how messages about the trial are presented to potential participants.

  9. Predicted Hematologic and Plasma Volume Responses Following Rapid Ascent to Progressive Altitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Detection of unethical and illegal manipulation of erythrocyte volume by following changes in hemoglobin concentration ([Hb]) in elite athletes is a...tolerance to environmental extremes [2,3] and such manipulation often results in acute plasma volume (PV) loss and elevated hemoglobin concentrations [3...bodies to detect "unfair practices" in athletes seeking to gain an edge in their performance through illegal manipulation of their erythrocyte

  10. Lung Volume Reduction Coil Treatment in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients with Homogeneous Emphysema : A Prospective Feasibility Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klooster, Karin; ten Hacken, Nick H. T.; Franz, Ina; Kerstjens, Huib A. M.; van Rikxoort, Eva M.; Slebos, Dirk-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Background: In patients with heterogeneous emphysema, surgical and bronchoscopic lung volume reduction (LVR) treatments are available. However, for patients with homogeneous emphysema these treatments are hardly investigated and seem less effective. Bronchoscopic LVR coil treatment has been shown to

  11. Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, Natalie A.; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C.; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J.; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E.; Deary, Ian J.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.

    2013-01-01

    Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. PMID:23850342

  12. Unhappiness and dissatisfaction in doctors cannot be predicted by selectors from medical school application forms: A prospective, longitudinal study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferguson E

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Personal statements and referees' reports are widely used on medical school application forms, particularly in the UK, to assess the suitability of candidates for a career in medicine. However there are few studies which assess the validity of such information for predicting unhappiness or dissatisfaction with a career in medicine. Here we combine data from a long-term prospective study of medical student selection and training, with an experimental approach in which a large number of assessors used a paired comparison technique to predict outcome. Methods Data from a large-scale prospective study of students applying to UK medical schools in 1990 were used to identify 40 pairs of doctors, matched by sex, for whom personal statements and referees' reports were available, and who in a 2002/3 follow-up study, one pair member was very satisfied and the other very dissatisfied with medicine as a career. In 2005, 96 assessors, who were experienced medical school selectors, doctors, medical students or psychology students, used information from the doctors' original applications to judge which member of each pair of doctors was the happier, more satisfied doctor. Results None of the groups of assessors were significantly different from chance expectations in using applicants' personal statements and the referees' reports to predict actual future satisfaction or dissatisfaction, the distribution being similar to binomial expectations. However judgements of pairs of application forms from pairs of doctors showed a non-binomial distribution, indicating consensus among assessors as to which doctor would be the happy doctor (although the consensus was wrong in half the cases. Assessors taking longer to do the task concurred more. Consensus judgements seem mainly to be based on referees' predictions of academic achievement (even though academic achievement is not actually a valid predictor of happiness or satisfaction. Conclusion

  13. Prediction of clearance, volume of distribution and half-life by allometric scaling and by use of plasma concentrations predicted from pharmacokinetic constants: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood, I

    1999-08-01

    Pharmacokinetic parameters (clearance, CL, volume of distribution in the central compartment, VdC, and elimination half-life, t1/2beta) predicted by an empirical allometric approach have been compared with parameters predicted from plasma concentrations calculated by use of the pharmacokinetic constants A, B, alpha and beta, where A and B are the intercepts on the Y axis of the plot of plasma concentration against time and alpha and beta are the rate constants, both pairs of constants being for the distribution and elimination phases, respectively. The pharmacokinetic parameters of cefpiramide, actisomide, troglitazone, procaterol, moxalactam and ciprofloxacin were scaled from animal data obtained from the literature. Three methods were used to generate plots for the prediction of clearance in man: dependence of clearance on body weight (simple allometric equation); dependence of the product of clearance and maximum life-span potential (MLP) on body weight; and dependence of the product of clearance and brain weight on body weight. Plasma concentrations of the drugs were predicted in man by use of A, B, alpha and beta obtained from animal data. The predicted plasma concentrations were then used to calculate CL, VdC and t1/2beta. The pharmacokinetic parameters predicted by use of both approaches were compared with measured values. The results indicate that simple allometry did not predict clearance satisfactorily for actisomide, troglitazone, procaterol and ciprofloxacin. Use of MLP or the product of clearance and brain weight improved the prediction of clearance for these four drugs. Except for troglitazone, VdC and t1/2beta predicted for man by use of the allometric approach were comparable with measured values for the drugs studied. CL, VdC and t1/2beta predicted by use of pharmacokinetic constants were comparable with values predicted by simple allometry. Thus, if simple allometry failed to predict clearance of a drug, so did the pharmacokinetic constant

  14. Depression after low-energy fracture in older women predicts future falls: a prospective observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Falls are one of the main causes of fractures in elderly people and after a recent fracture, the risk of another fall is increased, resulting in subsequent fracture. Therefore, risk factors for future falls should be determined. We prospectively investigated the relationship between depression and the incidence of falls in post-menopausal women after a low-energy fracture. Methods At baseline, 181 women aged 60 years and older who presented with a recent low-energy fracture were evaluated at the fracture and osteoporosis outpatient clinics of two hospitals. As well as clinical evaluation and bone mineral density tests, the presence of depression (measured using the Edinburgh Depression Scale, EDS, depression cut-off > 11) and risk factors for falling were assessed. During two years of follow-up, the incidence of falls was registered annually by means of detailed questionnaires and interviews. Results Seventy-nine (44%) of the women sustained at least one fall during follow-up. Of these, 28% (n = 22) suffered from depression at baseline compared to 10% (n = 10) of the 102 women who did not sustain a fall during follow-up (Χ2 = 8.76, df = 1, p = .003). Multiple logistic regression showed that the presence of depression and co-morbidity at baseline were independently related to falls (OR = 4.13, 95% CI = 1.58-10.80; OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.11-4.56, respectively) during follow-up. Conclusions The presence of depression in women aged 60 years and older with recent low-energy fractures is an important risk factor for future falls. We propose that clinicians treating patients with recent low-energy fractures should anticipate not only on skeletal-related risk factors for fractures, but also on fall-related risk factors including depression. PMID:22060677

  15. Depression after low-energy fracture in older women predicts future falls: a prospective observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van den Berg Martha

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Falls are one of the main causes of fractures in elderly people and after a recent fracture, the risk of another fall is increased, resulting in subsequent fracture. Therefore, risk factors for future falls should be determined. We prospectively investigated the relationship between depression and the incidence of falls in post-menopausal women after a low-energy fracture. Methods At baseline, 181 women aged 60 years and older who presented with a recent low-energy fracture were evaluated at the fracture and osteoporosis outpatient clinics of two hospitals. As well as clinical evaluation and bone mineral density tests, the presence of depression (measured using the Edinburgh Depression Scale, EDS, depression cut-off > 11 and risk factors for falling were assessed. During two years of follow-up, the incidence of falls was registered annually by means of detailed questionnaires and interviews. Results Seventy-nine (44% of the women sustained at least one fall during follow-up. Of these, 28% (n = 22 suffered from depression at baseline compared to 10% (n = 10 of the 102 women who did not sustain a fall during follow-up (Χ2 = 8.76, df = 1, p = .003. Multiple logistic regression showed that the presence of depression and co-morbidity at baseline were independently related to falls (OR = 4.13, 95% CI = 1.58-10.80; OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.11-4.56, respectively during follow-up. Conclusions The presence of depression in women aged 60 years and older with recent low-energy fractures is an important risk factor for future falls. We propose that clinicians treating patients with recent low-energy fractures should anticipate not only on skeletal-related risk factors for fractures, but also on fall-related risk factors including depression.

  16. Low plasma leptin level at admission predicts delirium in critically ill patients: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guicheng; Lei, Xiaobao; Ai, Chenmu; Li, Tao; Chen, Zhongqing

    2017-07-01

    The pathophysiology of delirium remains poorly understood. Low leptin level has been associated with features leading to delirium such as dysregulated immune functions and loss of neuroprotective effects. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relationship between plasma leptin level at intensive care unit (ICU) entry and subsequent occurrence of delirium in critically ill patients. This single-center prospective cohort study in China allocated 336 critically ill patients admitted to ICU between 05/2015 and 05/2016 into a delirium group (n=102) and non-delirium group (n=234) based on whether delirium occurred during their stay at the ICU. Patients were examined at least twice daily and delirium was diagnosed using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (CAM-ICU). Blood samples were obtained after ICU entry. Plasma leptin concentrations were measured by ELISA. Delirium occurred in 30.4% (102/336) of patients. Patients who developed delirium showed significantly lower leptin level at ICU entry than those who did not (6.1±3.2 vs. 9.2±5.9ng/mL; Pdelirium (OR, 0.865; 95%CI, 0.802-0.934; Pdelirium included increasing age (OR, 1.050; 95%CI, 1.020-1.080; P=0.001) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II (APACHE-II) score (OR, 1.148; 95%CI, 1.092-1.208; Pdelirium had a prolonged duration of ICU stay and higher mortality. Low plasma leptin level at ICU entry was associated with the occurrence of delirium in critically ill patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Fracture predictive ability of physical performance tests and history of falls in elderly women: a 10-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wihlborg, A; Englund, M; Åkesson, K; Gerdhem, P

    2015-08-01

    In a large cohort of elderly women followed for 10 years, we found that balance, gait speed, and self-reported history of fall independently predicted fracture. These clinical risk factors are easily evaluated and therefore advantageous in a clinical setting. They would improve fracture risk assessment and thereby also fracture prevention. The aim of this study was to identify additional risk factors for osteoporosis-related fracture by investigating the fracture predictive ability of physical performance tests and self-reported history of falls. In the population-based Osteoporosis Prospective Risk Assessment study (OPRA), 1044 women were recruited at the age of 75 and followed for 10 years. At inclusion, knee extension force, standing balance, gait speed, and bone mineral density (BMD) were examined. Falls the year before investigation was assessed by questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine fracture hazard ratios (HR) with BMD, history of fracture, BMI, smoking habits, bisphosphonate, vitamin D, glucocorticoid, and alcohol use as covariates. Continuous variables were standardized and HR shown for each standard deviation change. Of all women, 427 (41%) sustained at least one fracture during the 10-year follow-up. Failing the balance test had an HR of 1.98 (1.18-3.32) for hip fracture. Each standard deviation decrease in gait speed was associated with an HR of 1.37 (1.14-1.64) for hip fracture. Previous fall had an HR of 1.30 (1.03-1.65) for any fracture; 1.39 (1.08-1.79) for any osteoporosis-related fracture; and 1.60 (1.03-2.48) for distal forearm fracture. Knee extension force did not show fracture predictability. The balance test, gait speed test, and self-reported history of fall all hold independent fracture predictability. Consideration of these clinical risk factors for fracture would improve the fracture risk assessment and subsequently also fracture prevention.

  18. Binding Mode and Induced Fit Predictions for Prospective Computational Drug Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grebner, Christoph; Iegre, Jessica; Ulander, Johan; Edman, Karl; Hogner, Anders; Tyrchan, Christian

    2016-04-25

    Computer-aided drug design plays an important role in medicinal chemistry to obtain insights into molecular mechanisms and to prioritize design strategies. Although significant improvement has been made in structure based design, it still remains a key challenge to accurately model and predict induced fit mechanisms. Most of the current available techniques either do not provide sufficient protein conformational sampling or are too computationally demanding to fit an industrial setting. The current study presents a systematic and exhaustive investigation of predicting binding modes for a range of systems using PELE (Protein Energy Landscape Exploration), an efficient and fast protein-ligand sampling algorithm. The systems analyzed (cytochrome P, kinase, protease, and nuclear hormone receptor) exhibit different complexities of ligand induced fit mechanisms and protein dynamics. The results are compared with results from classical molecular dynamics simulations and (induced fit) docking. This study shows that ligand induced side chain rearrangements and smaller to medium backbone movements are captured well in PELE. Large secondary structure rearrangements, however, remain challenging for all employed techniques. Relevant binding modes (ligand heavy atom RMSD PELE method within a few hours of simulation, positioning PELE as a tool applicable for rapid drug design cycles.

  19. Overgeneral autobiographical memory predicts higher prospective levels of depressive symptoms and intrusions in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Broeck, Kris; Pieters, Guido; Claes, Laurence; Berens, Ann; Raes, Filip

    2016-11-01

    Overgeneral memory (OGM), the tendency to retrieve categories of events from autobiographical memory instead of single events, is found to be a reliable predictor for future mood disturbances and post-traumatic symptom severity. Patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD) often report co-morbid episodes of major depressive disorder (MDD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Therefore, we investigated whether OGM would predict depression severity and (post-traumatic) stress symptoms in BPD patients. At admission (N = 54) and at six-month follow-up (N ≥ 31), BPD patients completed the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders, the Assessment of DSM-IV Personality Disorders, the Autobiographical Memory Test, the Beck Depression Inventory-2nd edition (BDI-II), and the Impact of Event Scale. OGM at baseline predicted (a) higher levels of depressive symptoms at follow-up and (b) more intrusions related to a stressful event over and above baseline levels of borderline symptoms, depressive symptoms, and intrusions, respectively. No association was found between memory specificity and event-related avoidance at follow-up. Despite previous findings suggesting that OGM in BPD is less robust than in MDD and PTSD, our results suggest that memory specificity in BPD patients may have some relevance for the course of depressive and stress symptomatology in BPD.

  20. Attitudes predict the use of physical punishment: a prospective study of the emergence of disciplinary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vittrup, Brigitte; Holden, George W; Buck, Jeanell

    2006-06-01

    We sought to track the emergence of discipline techniques by mothers of young children and assess the predictive validity of spanking attitudes with subsequent reports of spanking. One hundred thirty-two mothers were surveyed every 6 months (beginning when their child was 12 months old until they were 4 years old) regarding how they disciplined their children. The discipline behaviors measured included physical punishment, noncoercive methods, and the use of time-outs and withdrawal of privileges. Attitudes toward spanking also were assessed several times. When their infants were 12 months old, mothers reported using 10 of the 12 discipline techniques assessed, and by the time the children were 24 months old, most mothers reported widespread use of the techniques. The frequency of use increased with age. Although the use of some discipline methods changed as the children got older, the mothers showed significant stability in their overall discipline strategy. Attitudes toward spanking (assessed when their children were 6 months old) were significantly correlated with subsequent spanking behavior, and the mothers' attitudes showed stability over time as well. By the time infants are 12 months old, discipline is a frequent occurrence in many families. A variety of techniques are used, and attitudes toward spanking predict subsequent spanking behavior. This information is useful for pediatricians, because it provides parents with anticipatory guidance about disciplining young children.

  1. Accuracy evaluation of Fourier series analysis and singular spectrum analysis for predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasmita, Yoga; Darmawan, Gumgum

    2017-08-01

    This research aims to evaluate the performance of forecasting by Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) which are more explorative and not requiring parametric assumption. Those methods are applied to predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia from January 2005 to December 2016 (monthly). Both models are suitable for seasonal and trend component data. Technically, FSA defines time domain as the result of trend and seasonal component in different frequencies which is difficult to identify in the time domain analysis. With the hidden period is 2,918 ≈ 3 and significant model order is 3, FSA model is used to predict testing data. Meanwhile, SSA has two main processes, decomposition and reconstruction. SSA decomposes the time series data into different components. The reconstruction process starts with grouping the decomposition result based on similarity period of each component in trajectory matrix. With the optimum of window length (L = 53) and grouping effect (r = 4), SSA predicting testing data. Forecasting accuracy evaluation is done based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The result shows that in the next 12 month, SSA has MAPE = 13.54 percent, MAE = 61,168.43 and RMSE = 75,244.92 and FSA has MAPE = 28.19 percent, MAE = 119,718.43 and RMSE = 142,511.17. Therefore, to predict volume of motorcycle sales in the next period should use SSA method which has better performance based on its accuracy.

  2. Brain volumes predict neurodevelopment in adolescents after surgery for congenital heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Rhein, Michael; Buchmann, Andreas; Hagmann, Cornelia; Huber, Reto; Klaver, Peter; Knirsch, Walter; Latal, Beatrice

    2014-01-01

    Patients with complex congenital heart disease are at risk for neurodevelopmental impairments. Evidence suggests that brain maturation can be delayed and pre- and postoperative brain injury may occur, and there is limited information on the long-term effect of congenital heart disease on brain development and function in adolescent patients. At a mean age of 13.8 years, 39 adolescent survivors of childhood cardiopulmonary bypass surgery with no structural brain lesions evident through conventional cerebral magnetic resonance imaging and 32 healthy control subjects underwent extensive neurodevelopmental assessment and cerebral magnetic resonance imaging. Cerebral scans were analysed quantitatively using surface-based and voxel-based morphometry. Compared with control subjects, patients had lower total brain (P = 0.003), white matter (P = 0.004) and cortical grey matter (P = 0.005) volumes, whereas cerebrospinal fluid volumes were not different. Regional brain volume reduction ranged from 5.3% (cortical grey matter) to 11% (corpus callosum). Adolescents with cyanotic heart disease showed more brain volume loss than those with acyanotic heart disease, particularly in the white matter, thalami, hippocampi and corpus callosum (all P-values Brain volume reduction correlated significantly with cognitive, motor and executive functions (grey matter: P < 0.05, white matter: P < 0.01). Our findings suggest that there are long-lasting cerebral changes in adolescent survivors of cardiopulmonary bypass surgery for congenital heart disease and that these changes are associated with functional outcome.

  3. Motor dual-tasking deficits predict falls in Parkinson's disease: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinzel, Sebastian; Maechtel, Mirjam; Hasmann, Sandra E; Hobert, Markus A; Heger, Tanja; Berg, Daniela; Maetzler, Walter

    2016-05-01

    Falls severely affect lives of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients. Cognitive impairment including dual-tasking deficits contribute to fall risk in PD. However, types of dual-tasking deficits preceding falls in PD are still unclear. Walking velocities during box-checking and subtracting serial 7s were assessed twice a year in 40 PD patients over 2.8 ± 1.0 years. Fourteen patients reported a fall within this period (4 excluded fallers already reported falls at baseline). Their dual-task costs (DTC; mean ± standard deviation) 4.2 ± 2.2 months before the first fall were compared with 22 patients never reporting falls. ROC analyses and logistic regressions accounting for DTC, UPDRS-III and disease duration were used for faller classification and prediction. Only walking/box-checking predicted fallers. Fallers showed higher DTC for walking while box-checking, p = 0.029, but not for box-checking while walking, p = 0.178 (combined motor DTC, p = 0.022), than non-fallers. Combined motor DTC classified fallers and non-fallers (area under curve: 0.75; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.60-0.91) with 71.4% sensitivity (95%CI: 41.9%-91.6%) and 77.3% specificity (54.6%-92.2%), and significantly predicted future fallers (p = 0.023). Here, 20.4%-points higher combined motor DTC (i.e. the mean difference between fallers and non-fallers) was associated with a 2.6 (1.1-6.0) times higher odds to be a future faller. Motor dual-tasking is a potentially valuable predictor of falls in PD, suggesting that avoiding dual task situations as well as specific motor dual-task training might help to prevent falls in PD. These findings and their therapeutic relevance need to be further validated in PD patients without fall history, in early PD stages, and with various motor-motor dual-task challenges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Volume of blood suctioned during vacuum-assisted breast biopsy predicts later hematoma formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panopoulou Effrosyni

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To evaluate whether the volume of blood suctioned during vacuum-assisted breast biopsy (VABB is associated with hematoma formation and progression, patient's age and histology of the lesion. Findings 177 women underwent VABB according to standardized protocol. The volume of blood suctioned and hematoma formation were noted at the end of the procedure, as did the subsequent development and progression of hematoma. First- and second-order logistic regression was performed, where appropriate. Cases with hematoma presented with greater volume of blood suctioned (63.8 ± 44.7 cc vs. 17.2 ± 32.9 cc; p Conclusion The likelihood of hematoma is increasing along with increasing amount of blood suctioned, reaching a plateau approximately at 80 cc of blood lost.

  5. A prospective cohort study of deficient maternal nurturing attitudes predicting adulthood work stress independent of adulthood hostility and depressive symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintsanen, M; Kivimäki, M; Hintsa, T; Theorell, T; Elovainio, M; Raitakari, O T; Viikari, J S A; Keltikangas-Järvinen, L

    2010-09-01

    Stressful childhood environments arising from deficient nurturing attitudes are hypothesized to contribute to later stress vulnerability. We examined whether deficient nurturing attitudes predict adulthood work stress. Participants were 443 women and 380 men from the prospective Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. Work stress was assessed as job strain and effort-reward imbalance in 2001 when the participants were from 24 to 39 years old. Deficient maternal nurturance (intolerance and low emotional warmth) was assessed based on mothers' reports when the participants were at the age of 3-18 years and again at the age of 6-21 years. Linear regressions showed that deficient emotional warmth in childhood predicted lower adulthood job control and higher job strain. These associations were not explained by age, gender, socioeconomic circumstances, maternal mental problems or participant hostility, and depressive symptoms. Deficient nurturing attitudes in childhood might affect sensitivity to work stress and selection into stressful work conditions in adulthood. More attention should be paid to pre-employment factors in work stress research.

  6. Stress, cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones: Prospective prediction of 6-month changes in food cravings and weight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Ariana M.; Jastreboff, Ania M.; White, Marney A.; Grilo, Carlos M.; Sinha, Rajita

    2017-01-01

    Objective To examine whether baseline chronic stress, morning cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones (leptin, ghrelin, and insulin) predict future weight gain and food cravings in a naturalistic longitudinal 6-month follow-up study. Methods A prospective community cohort of three hundred and thirty-nine adults (age=29.1± 9.0 years; BMI=26.7±5.4 kg/m2; 56.9% female; 70.2% White) completed assessments at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Fasting blood draws were used to assess cortisol and other appetite-related hormones levels at baseline. At baseline and follow-up, body weight was measured and the Cumulative Adversity Interview and Food Craving Inventory were administered. Data were analyzed using linear mixed models adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Results Over the 6-month period, 49.9% of the sample gained weight. Food cravings and chronic stress decreased over 6 months (psfood cravings at 6 months (p=0.04). Furthermore, higher cortisol, insulin, and chronic stress were each predictive of greater future weight gain (psfood cravings and reward-driven eating behaviors. Studies are needed that examine the utility of stress reduction methods for normalizing disrupted cortisol responses and preventing future weight gain. PMID:28349668

  7. The Predictive Value of Integrated Pulmonary Index after Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Prospective Observational Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgenia V. Fot

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe early warning scores may increase the safety of perioperative period. The objective of this study was to assess the diagnostic and predictive role of Integrated Pulmonary Index (IPI after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB.Materials and MethodsForty adult patients undergoing elective OPCAB were enrolled into a single-center prospective observational study. We assessed respiratory function using IPI that includes oxygen saturation, end-tidal CO2, respiratory rate, and pulse rate. In addition, we evaluated blood gas analyses and hemodynamics, including ECG, invasive arterial pressure, and cardiac index. The measurements were performed after transfer to the intensive care unit, after spontaneous breathing trial and at 2, 6, 12, and 18 h after extubation.Results and DiscussionThe value of IPI registered during respiratory support correlated weakly with cardiac index (rho = 0.4; p = 0.04 and ScvO2 (rho = 0.4, p = 0.02. After extubation, IPI values decreased significantly, achieving a minimum by 18 h. The IPI value ≤9 at 6 h after extubation was a predictor of complicated early postoperative period (AUC = 0.71; p = 0.04 observed in 13 patients.ConclusionIn off-pump coronary surgery, the IPI decreases significantly after tracheal extubation and may predict postoperative complications.

  8. Protective Factors, Coping Appraisals, and Social Barriers Predict Mental Health Following Community Violence: A Prospective Test of Social Cognitive Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew J; Felix, Erika D; Benight, Charles C; Jones, Russell T

    2017-06-01

    This study tested social cognitive theory of posttraumatic adaptation in the context of mass violence, hypothesizing that pre-event protective factors (general self-efficacy and perceived social support) would reduce posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and depression severity through boosting post-event coping self-efficacy appraisals (mediator). We qualified hypotheses by predicting that post-event social support barriers would disrupt (moderate) the health-promoting indirect effects of pre-event protective factors. With a prospective longitudinal sample, we employed path models with bootstrapping resampling to test hypotheses. Participants included 70 university students (71.4% female; 40.0% White; 34.3% Asian; 14.3% Hispanic) enrolled during a mass violence event who completed surveys one year pre-event and 5-6 months post-event. Results revealed significant large effects in predicting coping self-efficacy (mastery model, R 2 = .34; enabling model, R 2 = .36), PTSS (mastery model, R 2 = .35; enabling model, R 2 = .41), and depression severity (mastery model, R 2 = .43; enabling model, R 2 = .46). Overall findings supported study hypotheses, showing that at low levels of post-event social support barriers, pre-event protective factors reduced distress severity through boosting coping self-efficacy. However, as post-event social support barriers increased, the indirect, distress-reducing effects of pre-event protective factors were reduced to nonsignificance. Study implications focus on preventative and responsive intervention. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

  9. Predicting Nonauditory Adverse Radiation Effects Following Radiosurgery for Vestibular Schwannoma: A Volume and Dosimetric Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayhurst, Caroline; Monsalves, Eric; Bernstein, Mark; Gentili, Fred; Heydarian, Mostafa; Tsao, May; Schwartz, Michael; Prooijen, Monique van; Millar, Barbara-Ann; Ménard, Cynthia; Kulkarni, Abhaya V.; Laperriere, Norm; Zadeh, Gelareh

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To define clinical and dosimetric predictors of nonauditory adverse radiation effects after radiosurgery for vestibular schwannoma treated with a 12 Gy prescription dose. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed our experience of vestibular schwannoma patients treated between September 2005 and December 2009. Two hundred patients were treated at a 12 Gy prescription dose; 80 had complete clinical and radiological follow-up for at least 24 months (median, 28.5 months). All treatment plans were reviewed for target volume and dosimetry characteristics; gradient index; homogeneity index, defined as the maximum dose in the treatment volume divided by the prescription dose; conformity index; brainstem; and trigeminal nerve dose. All adverse radiation effects (ARE) were recorded. Because the intent of our study was to focus on the nonauditory adverse effects, hearing outcome was not evaluated in this study. Results: Twenty-seven (33.8%) patients developed ARE, 5 (6%) developed hydrocephalus, 10 (12.5%) reported new ataxia, 17 (21%) developed trigeminal dysfunction, 3 (3.75%) had facial weakness, and 1 patient developed hemifacial spasm. The development of edema within the pons was significantly associated with ARE (p = 0.001). On multivariate analysis, only target volume is a significant predictor of ARE (p = 0.001). There is a target volume threshold of 5 cm3, above which ARE are more likely. The treatment plan dosimetric characteristics are not associated with ARE, although the maximum dose to the 5th nerve is a significant predictor of trigeminal dysfunction, with a threshold of 9 Gy. The overall 2-year tumor control rate was 96%. Conclusions: Target volume is the most important predictor of adverse radiation effects, and we identified the significant treatment volume threshold to be 5 cm3. We also established through our series that the maximum tolerable dose to the 5th nerve is 9 Gy.

  10. Pre-operative renal volume predicts peak creatinine after congenital heart surgery in neonates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmody, J Bryan; Seckeler, Michael D; Ballengee, Cortney R; Conaway, Mark; Jayakumar, K Anitha; Charlton, Jennifer R

    2014-10-01

    Acute kidney injury is common in neonates following surgery for congenital heart disease. We conducted a retrospective analysis to determine whether neonates with smaller pre-operative renal volume were more likely to develop post-operative acute kidney injury. We conducted a retrospective review of 72 neonates who underwent congenital heart surgery for any lesion other than patent ductus arteriosus at our institution from January 2007 to December 2011. Renal volume was calculated by ultrasound using the prolate ellipsoid formula. The presence and severity of post-operative acute kidney injury was determined both by measuring the peak serum creatinine in the first 7 days post-operatively and by using the Acute Kidney Injury Network scoring system. Using a linear change point model, a threshold renal volume of 17 cm³ was identified. Below this threshold, there was an inverse linear relationship between renal volume and peak post-operative creatinine for all patients (p = 0.036) and the subgroup with a single morphologic right ventricle (p = 0.046). There was a non-significant trend towards more acute kidney injury using Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria in all neonates with renal volume ≤17 cm³ (p = 0.11) and in the subgroup with a single morphologic right ventricle (p = 0.17). Pre-operative renal volume ≤17 cm³ is associated with a higher peak post-operative creatinine and potentially greater risk for post-operative acute kidney injury for neonates undergoing congenital heart surgery. Neonates with a single right ventricle may be at higher risk.

  11. Predicting Nonauditory Adverse Radiation Effects Following Radiosurgery for Vestibular Schwannoma: A Volume and Dosimetric Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayhurst, Caroline; Monsalves, Eric; Bernstein, Mark; Gentili, Fred [Gamma Knife Unit, Division of Neurosurgery, University Health Network, Toronto (Canada); Heydarian, Mostafa; Tsao, May [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Schwartz, Michael [Radiation Oncology Program and Division of Neurosurgery, Sunnybrook Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Prooijen, Monique van [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Millar, Barbara-Ann; Menard, Cynthia [Radiation Oncology Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Kulkarni, Abhaya V. [Division of Neurosurgery, Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto (Canada); Laperriere, Norm [Radiation Oncology Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Zadeh, Gelareh, E-mail: Gelareh.Zadeh@uhn.on.ca [Gamma Knife Unit, Division of Neurosurgery, University Health Network, Toronto (Canada)

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To define clinical and dosimetric predictors of nonauditory adverse radiation effects after radiosurgery for vestibular schwannoma treated with a 12 Gy prescription dose. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed our experience of vestibular schwannoma patients treated between September 2005 and December 2009. Two hundred patients were treated at a 12 Gy prescription dose; 80 had complete clinical and radiological follow-up for at least 24 months (median, 28.5 months). All treatment plans were reviewed for target volume and dosimetry characteristics; gradient index; homogeneity index, defined as the maximum dose in the treatment volume divided by the prescription dose; conformity index; brainstem; and trigeminal nerve dose. All adverse radiation effects (ARE) were recorded. Because the intent of our study was to focus on the nonauditory adverse effects, hearing outcome was not evaluated in this study. Results: Twenty-seven (33.8%) patients developed ARE, 5 (6%) developed hydrocephalus, 10 (12.5%) reported new ataxia, 17 (21%) developed trigeminal dysfunction, 3 (3.75%) had facial weakness, and 1 patient developed hemifacial spasm. The development of edema within the pons was significantly associated with ARE (p = 0.001). On multivariate analysis, only target volume is a significant predictor of ARE (p = 0.001). There is a target volume threshold of 5 cm3, above which ARE are more likely. The treatment plan dosimetric characteristics are not associated with ARE, although the maximum dose to the 5th nerve is a significant predictor of trigeminal dysfunction, with a threshold of 9 Gy. The overall 2-year tumor control rate was 96%. Conclusions: Target volume is the most important predictor of adverse radiation effects, and we identified the significant treatment volume threshold to be 5 cm3. We also established through our series that the maximum tolerable dose to the 5th nerve is 9 Gy.

  12. A prospective investigation of rumination and executive control in predicting overgeneral autobiographical memory in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Tracy M; Hunter, Simon C; Rhodes, Sinéad M

    2018-04-01

    The CaR-FA-X model (Williams et al., 2007), or capture and rumination (CaR), functional avoidance (FA), and impaired executive control (X), is a model of overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM). Two mechanisms of the model, rumination and executive control, were examined in isolation and in interaction in order to investigate OGM over time. Across two time points, six months apart, a total of 149 adolescents (13-16 years) completed the minimal-instruction autobiographical memory test, a measure of executive control with both emotional and nonemotional stimuli, and measures of brooding rumination and reflective pondering. The results showed that executive control for emotional information was negatively associated with OGM, but only when reflective pondering levels were high. Therefore, in the context of higher levels of reflective pondering, greater switch costs (i.e., lower executive control) when processing emotional information predicted a decrease in OGM over time.

  13. Validating prediction scales of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Spain: the SPREDIA-2 population-based prospective cohort study protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinero-Fort, Miguel Ángel; de Burgos-Lunar, Carmen; Mostaza Prieto, José; Lahoz Rallo, Carlos; Abánades-Herranz, Juan Carlos; Gómez-Campelo, Paloma; Laguna Cuesta, Fernando; Estirado De Cabo, Eva; García Iglesias, Francisca; González Alegre, Teresa; Fernández Puntero, Belén; Montesano Sánchez, Luis; Vicent López, David; Cornejo Del Río, Víctor; Fernández García, Pedro J; Sabín Rodríguez, Concesa; López López, Silvia; Patrón Barandío, Pedro

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasing worldwide. When diagnosed, many patients already have organ damage or advance subclinical atherosclerosis. An early diagnosis could allow the implementation of lifestyle changes and treatment options aimed at delaying the progression of the disease and to avoid cardiovascular complications. Different scores for identifying undiagnosed diabetes have been reported, however, their performance in populations of southern Europe has not been sufficiently evaluated. The main objectives of our study are: to evaluate the screening performance and cut-off points of the main scores that identify the risk of undiagnosed T2DM and prediabetes in a Spanish population, and to develop and validate our own predictive models of undiagnosed T2DM (screening model), and future T2DM (prediction risk model) after 5-year follow-up. As a secondary objective, we will evaluate the atherosclerotic burden of the population with undiagnosed T2DM. Methods and analysis Population-based prospective cohort study with baseline screening, to evaluate the performance of the FINDRISC, DANISH, DESIR, ARIC and QDScore, against the gold standard tests: Fasting plasma glucose, oral glucose tolerance and/or HbA1c. The sample size will include 1352 participants between the ages of 45 and 74 years. Analysis: sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, likelihood ratio positive, likelihood ratio negative and receiver operating characteristic curves and area under curve. Binary logistic regression for the first 700 individuals (derivation) and last 652 (validation) will be performed. All analyses will be calculated with their 95% CI; statistical significance will be p<0.05. Ethics and dissemination The study protocol has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Carlos III Hospital (Madrid). The score performance and predictive model will be presented in medical conferences, workshops

  14. Does personality predict mortality? Results from the GAZEL French prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabi, Hermann; Kivimäki, Mika; Zins, Marie; Elovainio, Marko; Consoli, Silla M; Cordier, Sylvaine; Ducimetière, Pierre; Goldberg, Marcel; Singh-Manoux, Archana

    2008-04-01

    Majority of studies on personality and physical health have focused on one or two isolated personality traits. We aim to test the independent association of 10 personality traits, from three major conceptual models, with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the French GAZEL cohort. A total of 14,445 participants, aged 39-54 in 1993, completed the personality questionnaires composed of the Bortner Type-A scale, the Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory (for total, neurotic and reactive hostility) and the Grossarth-Maticek-Eysenck Personality Stress Inventory that assesses six personality types [cancer-prone, coronary heart disease (CHD)-prone, ambivalent, healthy, rational, anti-social]. The association between personality traits and mortality, during a mean follow-up of 12.7 years, was assessed using the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) in Cox regression. In models adjusted for age, sex, marital status and education, all-cause and cause-specific mortality were predicted by 'total hostility', its 'neurotic hostility' component as well as by 'CHD-prone', 'ambivalent' 'antisocial', and 'healthy' personality types. After mutually adjusting personality traits for each other, only high 'neurotic hostility' remained a robust predictor of excess mortality from all causes [RII = 2.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.68-4.09] and external causes (RII = 3.24; 95% CI = 1.03-10.18). 'CHD-prone' (RII = 2.23; 95% CI = 0.72-6.95) and 'anti-social' (RII = 2.13; 95% CI 0.61-6.58) personality types were associated with cardiovascular mortality and with mortality from external causes, respectively, but CIs were wider. Adjustment for potential behavioural mediators had only a modest effect on these associations. Neurotic hostility, CHD-prone personality and anti-social personality were all predictive of mortality outcomes. Further research is required to determine the precise mechanisms that contribute to these associations.

  15. Automated digital volume measurement of melanoma metastases in sentinel nodes predicts disease recurrence and survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riber-Hansen, Rikke; Nyengaard, Jens R; Hamilton-Dutoit, Stephen J

    2011-01-01

    statistics (categorical data). In addition, disease-free and melanoma-specific survivals were calculated. Mean metastatic volume per patient was 10.6 mm(3) (median 0.05 mm(3); range 0.0001-621.3 mm(3)) and 9.62 mm(3) (median 0.05 mm(3); range 0.00001-564.3 mm(3)) with manual and digital measurement......, respectively. The Bland-Altman plot showed an even distribution of the differences, and the kappa statistic was 0.84. In multivariate analysis, both manual and digital metastasis volume measurements were independent progression markers when corrected for primary tumour thickness [manual: hazard ratio (HR): 1...

  16. Tumor Volume Changes Assessed by Three-Dimensional Magnetic Resonance Volumetry in Rectal Cancer Patients After Preoperative Chemoradiation: The Impact of the Volume Reduction Ratio on the Prediction of Pathologic Complete Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Young Chul; Kim, Hyunki; Kim, Young Wan; Hur, Hyuk; Kim, Jin Soo; Min, Byung Soh; Kim, Hogeun; Lim, Joon Seok; Seong, Jinsil; Keum, Ki Chang; Kim, Nam Kyu

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to determine the correlation between tumor volume changes assessed by three-dimensional (3D) magnetic resonance (MR) volumetry and the histopathologic tumor response in rectal cancer patients undergoing preoperative chemoradiation therapy (CRT). Methods and Materials: A total of 84 patients who underwent preoperative CRT followed by radical surgery were prospectively enrolled in the study. The post-treatment tumor volume and tumor volume reduction ratio (% decrease ratio), as shown by 3D MR volumetry, were compared with the histopathologic response, as shown by T and N downstaging and the tumor regression grade (TRG). Results: There were no significant differences in the post-treatment tumor volume and the volume reduction ratio shown by 3D MR volumetry with respect to T and N downstaging and the tumor regression grade. In a multivariate analysis, the tumor volume reduction ratio was not significantly associated with T and N downstaging. The volume reduction ratio (>75%, p = 0.01) and the pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen level (≤3 ng/ml, p = 0.01), but not the post-treatment volume shown by 3D MR (≤ 5ml), were, however, significantly associated with an increased pathologic complete response rate. Conclusion: More than 75% of the tumor volume reduction ratios were significantly associated with a high pathologic complete response rate. Therefore, limited treatment options such as local excision or simple observation might be considered after preoperative CRT in this patient population.

  17. Prediction of gas volume fraction in fully-developed gas-liquid flow in a vertical pipe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Islam, A.S.M.A.; Adoo, N.A.; Bergstrom, D.J., E-mail: nana.adoo@usask.ca [University of Saskatchewan, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Saskatoon, SK (Canada); Wang, D.F. [Canadian Nuclear Laboratories, Chalk River, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    An Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid model has been implemented for the prediction of the gas volume fraction profile in turbulent upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical pipe. The two-fluid transport equations are discretized using the finite volume method and a low Reynolds number κ-ε turbulence model is used to predict the turbulence field for the liquid phase. The contribution to the effective turbulence by the gas phase is modeled by a bubble induced turbulent viscosity. For the fully-developed flow being considered, the gas volume fraction profile is calculated using the radial momentum balance for the bubble phase. The model potentially includes the effect of bubble size on the interphase forces and turbulence model. The results obtained are in good agreement with experimental data from the literature. The one-dimensional formulation being developed allows for the efficient assessment and further development of both turbulence and two-fluid models for multiphase flow applications in the nuclear industry. (author)

  18. Effectiveness of Cooperative Learning Instructional Tools With Predict-Observe-Explain Strategy on the Topic of Cuboid and Cube Volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhuda; Lukito, A.; Masriyah

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to develop instructional tools and implement it to see the effectiveness. The method used in this research referred to Designing Effective Instruction. Experimental research with two-group pretest-posttest design method was conducted. The instructional tools have been developed is cooperative learning model with predict-observe-explain strategy on the topic of cuboid and cube volume which consist of lesson plans, POE tasks, and Tests. Instructional tools were of good quality by criteria of validity, practicality, and effectiveness. These instructional tools was very effective for teaching the volume of cuboid and cube. Cooperative instructional tool with predict-observe-explain (POE) strategy was good of quality because the teacher was easy to implement the steps of learning, students easy to understand the material and students’ learning outcomes completed classically. Learning by using this instructional tool was effective because learning activities were appropriate and students were very active. Students’ learning outcomes were completed classically and better than conventional learning. This study produced a good instructional tool and effectively used in learning. Therefore, these instructional tools can be used as an alternative to teach volume of cuboid and cube topics.

  19. Prediction of gas volume fraction in fully-developed gas-liquid flow in a vertical pipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Islam, A.S.M.A.; Adoo, N.A.; Bergstrom, D.J.; Wang, D.F.

    2015-01-01

    An Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid model has been implemented for the prediction of the gas volume fraction profile in turbulent upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical pipe. The two-fluid transport equations are discretized using the finite volume method and a low Reynolds number κ-ε turbulence model is used to predict the turbulence field for the liquid phase. The contribution to the effective turbulence by the gas phase is modeled by a bubble induced turbulent viscosity. For the fully-developed flow being considered, the gas volume fraction profile is calculated using the radial momentum balance for the bubble phase. The model potentially includes the effect of bubble size on the interphase forces and turbulence model. The results obtained are in good agreement with experimental data from the literature. The one-dimensional formulation being developed allows for the efficient assessment and further development of both turbulence and two-fluid models for multiphase flow applications in the nuclear industry. (author)

  20. Processes with weak gauge boson pairs at hadron colliders. Precise predictions and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salfelder, Lukas

    2017-02-08

    In the last years, scattering processes comprising pairs of the massive weak gauge bosons gain more and more attention. Those reactions provide particularly promising means to investigate the very mechanism responsible for electroweak symmetry breaking in the Standard Model of particle physics and to search for new physics entering via the weak sector of the theory. Precisely predicting the differential distributions of the final-state particles in realistic conditions is an essential prerequisite to potentially reveal tiny deviations induced by physics beyond the Standard Model. In this thesis we present a calculation of the next-to-leading order (NLO) electroweak corrections to W-boson pair production at CERNs Large Hadron Collider (LHC), as well as a detailed analysis of vector-boson scattering (VBS) processes at a future high-energy proton.proton collider. In particular, our calculation of the NLO electroweak corrections to the hadronic process pp→W{sup +}W{sup -}→4 leptons takes the leptonic W-boson decays as well as all off-shell effects fully into account and, thus, is the first prediction providing NLO accuracy everywhere in phase space. Employing realistic event selection criteria, we study the influence of the corrections in situations that are typical for the experimental analyses in the high-energy region and for Higgs-boson precision studies in the channel H→WW{sup *}, to which direct W-boson pair production represents an important irreducible background. We observe non-trivial distortions of the differential distributions that, if not properly included in upcoming analyses, could easily be misidentified as first signs of new physics. Furthermore, we compare our predictions to previous results obtained by employing the so-called double-pole approximation. At small and intermediate scales the two approaches show the expected agreement at the level of fractions of a percent, while in the TeV range the differences may easily reach several tens of

  1. Eradicating BVD, reviewing Irish programme data and model predictions to support prospective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thulke, H-H; Lange, M; Tratalos, J A; Clegg, T A; McGrath, G; O'Grady, L; O'Sullivan, P; Doherty, M L; Graham, D A; More, S J

    2018-02-01

    Bovine Viral Diarrhoea is an infectious production disease of major importance in many cattle sectors of the world. The infection is predominantly transmitted by animal contact. Postnatal infections are transient, leading to immunologically protected cattle. However, for a certain window of pregnancy, in utero infection of the foetus results in persistently infected (PI) calves being the major risk of BVD spread, but also an efficient target for controlling the infection. There are two acknowledged strategies to identify PI animals for removal: tissue tag testing (direct; also known as the Swiss model) and serological screening (indirect by interpreting the serological status of the herd; the Scandinavian model). Both strategies are effective in reducing PI prevalence and herd incidence. During the first four years of the Irish national BVD eradication programme (2013-16), it has been mandatory for all newborn calves to be tested using tissue tag testing. During this period, PI incidence has substantially declined. In recent times, there has been interest among stakeholders in a change to an indirect testing strategy, with potential benefit to the overall programme, particularly with respect to cost to farmers. Advice was sought on the usefulness of implementing the necessary changes. Here we review available data from the national eradication programme and strategy performance predictions from an expert system model to quantify expected benefits of the strategy change from strategic, budgetary and implementation points of view. Key findings from our work include (i) drawbacks associated with changes to programme implementation, in particular the loss of epidemiological information to allow real-time monitoring of eradication progress or to reliably predict time to eradication, (ii) the fact that only 25% of the herds in the Irish cattle sector (14% beef, 78% dairy herds) would benefit financially from a change to serosurveillance, with half of these participants

  2. An evaluation of volume-based morphometry for prediction of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Schmitter

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Voxel-based morphometry from conventional T1-weighted images has proved effective to quantify Alzheimer's disease (AD related brain atrophy and to enable fairly accurate automated classification of AD patients, mild cognitive impaired patients (MCI and elderly controls. Little is known, however, about the classification power of volume-based morphometry, where features of interest consist of a few brain structure volumes (e.g. hippocampi, lobes, ventricles as opposed to hundreds of thousands of voxel-wise gray matter concentrations. In this work, we experimentally evaluate two distinct volume-based morphometry algorithms (FreeSurfer and an in-house algorithm called MorphoBox for automatic disease classification on a standardized data set from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Results indicate that both algorithms achieve classification accuracy comparable to the conventional whole-brain voxel-based morphometry pipeline using SPM for AD vs elderly controls and MCI vs controls, and higher accuracy for classification of AD vs MCI and early vs late AD converters, thereby demonstrating the potential of volume-based morphometry to assist diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease.

  3. Evaluation of the Free Volume Theory to Predict Moisture Transport and Quality Changes During Broccoli Drying

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jin, X.; Sman, van der R.G.M.; Boxtel, van A.J.B.

    2011-01-01

    Moisture diffusion in porous broccoli florets and stalks is modeled using the free volume and Maxwell-Eucken theories. These theories are based on the mobility of water and concern the variation of the effective diffusion coefficient for a wide range of temperature and moisture content during

  4. Evaluation of the free volume theory to predict moisture transport and quality changes during broccoli drying

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jin, X.; Sman, van der R.G.M.; Boxtel, van A.J.B.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract: Moisture diffusion in porous broccoli florets and stalks is modeled by using the free volume and Maxwell-Eucken theories. These theories are based on the mobility of water and show the variation of the effective diffusion coefficient for a wide range of temperatures and moisture content of

  5. A novel approach to predict the excess volume of hydrocarbon mixtures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Finkers, H. J.; Bosma, J. C.; Broekhuis, A. A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores whether principles obtained for the packing of solid macroscopic particles can be applied to the study of excess volumes of liquid mixtures. The approach is applied to mixtures of 'pure' hydrocarbons, i.e. containing only C- and H-atoms. In this new approach a set of equations

  6. Soluble Suppression of Tumorigenicity-2 Predicts Hospital Mortality in Burn Patients: An Observational Prospective Cohort Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Castilla, Mireia; Bosacoma, Pau; Dos Santos, Bruce; Baena, Jacinto; Guilabert, Patricia; Marin-Corral, Judith; Masclans, Joan R; Roca, Oriol; Barret, Juan P

    2018-04-10

    The IL33/ST2 pathway has been implicated in the pathogenesis of different inflammatory diseases. Our aim was to analyze whether plasma levels of biomarkers involved in the IL33/ST2 axis might help to predict mortality in burn patients. Single-center prospective observational cohort pilot study performed at the Burns Unit of the Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Department of the Vall d'Hebron University Hospital (Barcelona). All patients aged ≥18 years old with second or third-degree burns requiring admission to the Burns Unit were considered for inclusion. Blood samples were taken to measure levels of interleukins (IL)6, IL8, IL33, and soluble suppression of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) within 24 h of admission to the Burns Unit and at day 3. Results are expressed as medians and interquartile ranges or as frequencies and percentages. Sixty-nine patients (58 [84.1%] male, mean age 52 [35-63] years, total body surface area burned 21% [13%-30%], Abbreviated Burn Severity Index 6 [4-8]) were included. Thirteen (18.8%) finally died in the Burns Unit. Plasma levels of sST2 measured at day 3 after admission demonstrated the best prediction accuracy for survival (area under the ROC curve 0.85 [0.71-0.99]; P < 0.001). The best cutoff point for the AUROC index was estimated to be 2,561. In the Cox proportional hazards model, after adjusting for potential confounding, a plasma sST2 level ≥2,561 measured at day 3 was significantly associated with mortality (HR 6.94 [1.73-27.74]; P = 0.006). Plasma sST2 at day 3 predicts hospital mortality in burn patients.

  7. Allergy tests do not predict food triggers in adult patients with eosinophilic oesophagitis. A comprehensive prospective study using five modalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philpott, H; Nandurkar, S; Royce, S G; Thien, F; Gibson, P R

    2016-08-01

    The use of allergy tests to guide dietary treatment for eosinophilic oesophagitis (EoE) is controversial and data are limited. Aeroallergen sensitisation patterns and food triggers have been defined in Northern Hemisphere cohorts only. To determine if allergy tests that are routinely available can predict food triggers in adult patients with EoE. To define the food triggers and aeroallergen sensitisation patterns in a novel Southern Hemisphere (Australian) cohort of patients. Consecutive patients with EoE who elected to undergo dietary therapy were prospectively assessed, demographic details and atopic characteristics recorded, and allergy tests, comprising skin-prick and skin-patch tests, serum allergen-specific IgE, basophil activation test and serum food-specific IgG, were performed. Patients underwent a six-food elimination diet with a structured algorithm that included endoscopic and histological examination of the oesophagus a minimum of 2 weeks after each challenge. Response was defined as Foods defined as triggers were considered as gold standard and were compared with those identified by allergy testing. No allergy test could accurately predict actual food triggers. Concordance among skin-prick and serum allergen-specific IgE was high for aeroallergens only. Among seasonal aeroallergens, rye-grass sensitisation was predominant. Food triggers were commonly wheat, milk and egg, alone or in combination. None of the currently-available allergy tests predicts food triggers for EoE. Exclusion-rechallenge methodology with oesophageal histological assessment remains the only effective investigation. The same food triggers were identified in this southern hemisphere cohort as previously described. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Autologous fibrin sealant reduces the incidence of prolonged air leak and duration of chest tube drainage after lung volume reduction surgery: a prospective randomized blinded study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moser, C; Opitz, I; Zhai, W; Rousson, V; Russi, E W; Weder, W; Lardinois, D

    2008-10-01

    Prolonged air leak is reported in up to 50% of patients after lung volume reduction surgery. The effect of an autologous fibrin sealant on the intensity and duration of air leak and on the time to chest drain removal after lung volume reduction surgery was investigated in a randomized prospective clinical trial. Twenty-five patients underwent bilateral thoracoscopic lung volume reduction surgery. In each patient, an autologous fibrin sealant was applied along the staple lines on one side, whereas no additional measure was taken on the other side. Randomization of treatment was performed at the end of the resection on the first side. Air leak was assessed semiquantitatively by use of a severity score (0 = no leak; 4 = continuous severe leak) by two investigators blinded to the treatment. Mean value of the total severity scores for the first 48 hours postoperative was significantly lower in the treated group (4.7 +/- 7.7) than in the control group (16.0 +/- 10.1) (P drainage were also significantly reduced after application of the sealant (4.5% and 2.8 +/- 1.9 days versus 31.8% and 5.9 +/- 2.9 days) (P = .03 and P drainage.

  9. Use of the SONET Score to Evaluate High Volume Emergency Department Overcrowding: A Prospective Derivation and Validation Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The accuracy and utility of current Emergency Department (ED crowding estimation tools remain uncertain in EDs with high annual volumes. We aimed at deriving a more accurate tool to evaluate overcrowding in a high volume ED setting and determine the association between ED overcrowding and patient care outcomes. Methods. A novel scoring tool (SONET: Severely overcrowded-Overcrowded-Not overcrowded Estimation Tool was developed and validated in two EDs with both annual volumes exceeding 100,000. Patient care outcomes including the number of left without being seen (LWBS patients, average length of ED stay, ED 72-hour returns, and mortality were compared under the different crowding statuses. Results. The total number of ED patients, the number of mechanically ventilated patients, and patient acuity levels were independent risk factors affecting ED overcrowding. SONET was derived and found to better differentiate severely overcrowded, overcrowded, and not overcrowded statuses with similar results validated externally. In addition, SONET scores correlated with increased length of ED stay, number of LWBS patients, and ED 72-hour returns. Conclusions. SONET might be a better fit to determine high volume ED overcrowding. ED overcrowding negatively impacts patient care operations and often produces poor patient perceptions of standardized care delivery.

  10. Prospective comparison among transient elastography, supersonic shear imaging, and ARFI imaging for predicting fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myoung Seok Lee

    Full Text Available The diagnostic performance of supersonic shear imaging (SSI in comparison with those of transient elastography (TE and acoustic radiation force impulse imaging (ARFI for staging fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD patients has not been fully assessed, especially in Asian populations with relatively lean NAFLD compared to white populations. Thus, we focused on comparing the diagnostic performances of TE, ARFI, and SSI for staging fibrosis in a head-to-head manner, and identifying the clinical, anthropometric, biochemical, and histological features which might affect liver stiffness measurement (LSM in our prospective biopsy-proven NAFLD cohort. In this study, ninety-four patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included prospectively. Liver stiffness was measured using TE, SSI, and ARFI within 1 month of liver biopsy. The diagnostic performance for staging fibrosis was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Anthropometric data were evaluated as covariates influencing LSM by regression analyses. Liver stiffness correlated with fibrosis stage (p < 0.05; the area under the ROC curve of TE (kPa, SSI (kPa, and ARFI (m/s were as follows: 0.757, 0.759, and 0.657 for significant fibrosis and 0.870, 0.809, and 0.873 for advanced fibrosis. Anthropometric traits were significant confounders affecting SSI, while serum liver injury markers significantly confounded TE and ARFI. In conclusion, the LSM methods had similar diagnostic performance for staging fibrosis in patients with NAFLD. Pre-LSM anthropometric evaluation may help predict the reliability of SSI.

  11. Nerve Ultrasound Predicts Treatment Response in Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyradiculoneuropathy-a Prospective Follow-Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Härtig, Florian; Ross, Marlene; Dammeier, Nele Maria; Fedtke, Nadin; Heiling, Bianka; Axer, Hubertus; Décard, Bernhard F; Auffenberg, Eva; Koch, Marilin; Rattay, Tim W; Krumbholz, Markus; Bornemann, Antje; Lerche, Holger; Winter, Natalie; Grimm, Alexander

    2018-04-01

    As reliable biomarkers of disease activity are lacking, monitoring of therapeutic response in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP) remains a challenge. We sought to determine whether nerve ultrasound and electrophysiology scoring could close this gap. In CIDP patients (fulfilling EFNS/PNS criteria), we performed high-resolution nerve ultrasound to determine ultrasound pattern sum scores (UPSS) and predominant echotexture nerve conduction study scores (NCSS) as well as Medical Research Council sum scores (MRCSS) and inflammatory neuropathy cause and treatment disability scores (INCAT) at baseline and after 12 months of standard treatment. We retrospectively correlated ultrasound morphology with nerve histology when available. 72/80 CIDP patients featured multifocal nerve enlargement, and 35/80 were therapy-naïve. At baseline, clinical scores correlated with NCSS (r 2  = 0.397 and r 2  = 0.443, p  50% of measured segments, possibly reflecting axonal degeneration; and 3) almost no enlargement, reflecting "burned-out" or "cured" disease without active inflammation. Clinical improvement after 12 months was best in patients with pattern 1 (up to 75% vs up to 43% in pattern 2/3, Fisher's exact test p < 0.05). Nerve ultrasound has additional value not only for diagnosis, but also for classification of disease state and may predict treatment response.

  12. Does Group-Level Commitment Predict Employee Well-Being?: A Prospective Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clausen, Thomas; Christensen, Karl Bang; Nielsen, Karina

    2015-11-01

    To investigate the links between group-level affective organizational commitment (AOC) and individual-level psychological well-being, self-reported sickness absence, and sleep disturbances. A total of 5085 care workers from 301 workgroups in the Danish eldercare services participated in both waves of the study (T1 [2005] and T2 [2006]). The three outcomes were analyzed using linear multilevel regression analysis, multilevel Poisson regression analysis, and multilevel logistic regression analysis, respectively. Group-level AOC (T1) significantly predicted individual-level psychological well-being, self-reported sickness absence, and sleep disturbances (T2). The association between group-level AOC (T1) and psychological well-being (T2) was fully mediated by individual-level AOC (T1), and the associations between group-level AOC (T1) and self-reported sickness absence and sleep disturbances (T2) were partially mediated by individual-level AOC (T1). Group-level AOC is an important predictor of employee well-being in contemporary health care organizations.

  13. Prediction of shale prospectivity from seismically-derived reservoir and completion qualities: Application to a shale-gas field, Horn River Basin, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Cheol Hoon; Lee, Gwang H.; Jeoung, Taek Ju; Ko, Kyung Nam; Kim, Ki Soo; Park, Kyung-sick; Shin, Chang Hoon

    2018-04-01

    Prospective shale plays require a combination of good reservoir and completion qualities. Total organic carbon (TOC) is an important reservoir quality and brittleness is the most critical condition for completion quality. We analyzed seismically-derived brittleness and TOC to investigate the prospectivity of the Horn River Group shale (the Muskwa, Otter Park, Evie shales) of a shale-gas field in the western Horn River Basin, British Columbia, Canada. We used the λρ-μρ brittleness template, constructed from the mineralogy-based brittleness index (MBI) and elastic logs from two wells, to convert the λρ and μρ volumes from prestack seismic inversion to the volume for the brittleness petrotypes (most brittle, intermediate, and least brittle). The probability maps of the most brittle petrotype for the three shales were generated from Bayesian classification, based on the λρ-μρ template. The relationship between TOC and P-wave and S-wave velocity ratio (VP/VS) at the wells allowed the conversion of the VP/VS volume from prestack inversion to the TOC volume, which in turn was used to construct the TOC maps for the three shales. Increased TOC is correlated with high brittleness, contrasting with the commonly-held understanding. Therefore, the prospectivity of the shales in the study area can be represented by high brittleness and increased TOC. We propose a shale prospectivity index (SPI), computed by the arithmetic average of the normalized probability of the most brittle petrotype and the normalized TOC. The higher SPI corresponds to higher production rates in the Muskwa and Evie shales. The areas of the highest SPI have not been fully tested. The future drilling should be focused on these areas to increase the economic viability of the field.

  14. SU-F-R-48: Early Prediction of Pathological Response of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Using Perfusion CT:A Prospective Clinical Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nie, K; Yue, N; Jabbour, S; Kim, S [Rutgers-Cancer Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers-Robert Wood Johnson Medical, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Shi, L; Mao, T; Qian, L; Hu, X; Sun, X; Niu, T [Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To prospectively evaluate the tumor vascularity assessed by perfusion CT for prediction of chemo-radiation treatment (CRT) response in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Methods: Eighteen consecutive patients (61.9±8.8 years, from March–June 2015) diagnosed with LARC who underwent 6–8 weeks CRT followed by surgery were included. The pre-treatment perfusion CT was acquired after a 5s delay of contrast agent injection for 45s with 1s interval. A total of 7-cm craniocaudal range covered the tumor region with 3-mm slice thickness. The effective radiation dose is around 15mSv, which is about 1.5 the conventional abdomen/pelvis CT dose. The parametric map of blood flow (BF), blood volume (BV), mean transit time (MTT), permeability (PMB), and maximum intensity map (MIP) were obtained from commercial software (Syngo-CT 2011A, Siemens). An experienced radiation oncologist outlined the tumor based on the pre-operative MR and pathologic residual region, but was blinded with regards to pathological tumor stage. The perfusion parameters were compared to histopathological response quantified by tumor regression grade as good-responder (GR, TRG 0-1) vs. non-good responder (non-GR). Furthermore, the predictive value for pathological complete response (pCR) was also investigated. Results: Both BV (p=0.02) and MTT (P=0.02) was significantly higher and permeambility was lower (p=0.004) in the good responders. The BF was higher in GR group but not statistically significant. Regarding the discrimination of pCR vs non-pCR, the BF was higher in the pCR group (p=0.08) but none of those parameters showed statistically significant differences. Conclusion: BV and MTT can discriminate patients with a favorable response from those that fail to respond well, potentially selecting high-risk patients with resistant tumors that may benefit from an aggressive preoperative treatment approach. However, future studies with more patient data are needed to verify the prognostic value

  15. Prospect of Using Numerical Dynamo Model for Prediction of Geomagnetic Secular Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Weijia; Tangborn, Andrew

    2003-01-01

    Modeling of the Earth's core has reached a level of maturity to where the incorporation of observations into the simulations through data assimilation has become feasible. Data assimilation is a method by which observations of a system are combined with a model output (or forecast) to obtain a best guess of the state of the system, called the analysis. The analysis is then used as an initial condition for the next forecast. By doing assimilation, not only we shall be able to predict partially secular variation of the core field, we could also use observations to further our understanding of dynamical states in the Earth's core. One of the first steps in the development of an assimilation system is a comparison between the observations and the model solution. The highly turbulent nature of core dynamics, along with the absence of any regular external forcing and constraint (which occurs in atmospheric dynamics, for example) means that short time comparisons (approx. 1000 years) cannot be made between model and observations. In order to make sensible comparisons, a direct insertion assimilation method has been implemented. In this approach, magnetic field observations at the Earth's surface have been substituted into the numerical model, such that the ratio of the multiple components and the dipole component from observation is adjusted at the core-mantle boundary and extended to the interior of the core, while the total magnetic energy remains unchanged. This adjusted magnetic field is then used as the initial field for a new simulation. In this way, a time tugged simulation is created which can then be compared directly with observations. We present numerical solutions with and without data insertion and discuss their implications for the development of a more rigorous assimilation system.

  16. Prospective prediction of children's smoking transitions: role of parents' and older siblings' smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricker, Jonathan B; Peterson, Arthur V; Leroux, Brian G; Andersen, M Robyn; Rajan, K Bharat; Sarason, Irwin G

    2006-01-01

    To use a novel social epidemic probability model to investigate longitudinally the extent to which parents' and older siblings' smoking predict children's smoking transitions. Parents' and older siblings' smoking status was assessed when children were in 3rd grade (baseline). Three smoking transitions were assessed over the period of child/adolescent smoking acquisition (up to 12th grade): (1) transition from never smoking to trying smoking, (2) transition from trying to monthly smoking and (3) transition from monthly to daily smoking. Forty Washington State school districts participating in the long term Hutchinson Smoking Prevention Project (HSPP). Participants were the 5520 families for whom data on both parents' and older siblings' baseline smoking status, as well as on children's smoking transitions, were available. The probability that a smoking parent influenced their child to make the first transition to trying smoking was 32% (95% CI: 27%, 36%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 15% (95% CI: 10%, 19%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 28% (95% CI: 21%, 34%). The probability that an older sibling influenced a child to make the first transition to trying smoking was 29% (95% CI: 17%, 39%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 0% (95% CI: 0%, 8%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 20% (95% CI: 4%, 33%). In contrast to previous research, the results provide new evidence suggesting that family smoking influences both initiation and escalation of children's smoking. Results also quantify, in terms of probabilities, the importance of parents' and older siblings' smoking on children's three major smoking transitions. Parents' smoking, as well as older siblings' smoking, are important behaviors to target in preventing adolescents from making smoking transitions.

  17. Improved prediction of octanol-water partition coefficients from liquid-solute water solubilities and molar volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiou, C.T.; Schmedding, D.W.; Manes, M.

    2005-01-01

    A volume-fraction-based solvent-water partition model for dilute solutes, in which the partition coefficient shows a dependence on solute molar volume (V??), is adapted to predict the octanol-water partition coefficient (K ow) from the liquid or supercooled-liquid solute water solubility (Sw), or vice versa. The established correlation is tested for a wide range of industrial compounds and pesticides (e.g., halogenated aliphatic hydrocarbons, alkylbenzenes, halogenated benzenes, ethers, esters, PAHs, PCBs, organochlorines, organophosphates, carbamates, and amidesureas-triazines), which comprise a total of 215 test compounds spanning about 10 orders of magnitude in Sw and 8.5 orders of magnitude in Kow. Except for phenols and alcohols, which require special considerations of the Kow data, the correlation predicts the Kow within 0.1 log units for most compounds, much independent of the compound type or the magnitude in K ow. With reliable Sw and V data for compounds of interest, the correlation provides an effective means for either predicting the unavailable log Kow values or verifying the reliability of the reported log Kow data. ?? 2005 American Chemical Society.

  18. Age and total and free prostate-specific antigen levels for predicting prostate volume in patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coban, Soner; Doluoglu, Omer Gokhan; Keles, Ibrahim; Demirci, Hakan; Turkoglu, Ali Riza; Guzelsoy, Muhammet; Karalar, Mustafa; Demirbas, Murat

    2016-06-01

    To investigate the predictive values of free prostate-specific antigen (fPSA), total PSA (tPSA) and age on the prostate volume. The data of 2148 patients with lower urinary tract symptoms were analyzed retrospectively. The patients who had transrectal ultrasonography guided 10 core biopsies owing to the findings obtained on digital rectal examination and presence of high PSA levels (PSA = 2.5-10 ng/dl), and proven to have BPH histopathologically were included in the study. Age, tPSA, fPSA and the prostate volumes (PV) of the patients were noted. One thousand patients that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in the study. The PV of the patients were significantly correlated with age, tPSA and fPSA (p < 0.001 and r = 0.307, p < 0.001 and r = 0.382, p < 0.001 and r = 0.296, respectively). On linear regression model, fPSA was found as a stronger predictive for PV (AUC = 0.75, p < 0.001) when compared to age (AUC = 0.64, p < 0.001), and tPSA (AUC = 0.69, p = 0.013). Although tPSA is an important prognostic factor for predicting PV, the predictive value of fPSA is higher. PV can easily be predicted by using age, and serum tPSA and fPSA levels.

  19. Prediction of infarction and reperfusion in stroke by flow- and volume-weighted collateral signal in MR angiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, M; Forkert, N D; Brehmer, L; Thomalla, G; Siemonsen, S; Fiehler, J; Kemmling, A

    2015-02-01

    In proximal anterior circulation occlusive strokes, collateral flow is essential for good outcome. Collateralized vessel intensity in TOF- and contrast-enhanced MRA is variable due to different acquisition methods. Our purpose was to quantify collateral supply by using flow-weighted signal in TOF-MRA and blood volume-weighted signal in contrast-enhanced MRA to determine each predictive contribution to tissue infarction and reperfusion. Consecutively (2009-2013), 44 stroke patients with acute proximal anterior circulation occlusion met the inclusion criteria with TOF- and contrast-enhanced MRA and penumbral imaging. Collateralized vessels in the ischemic hemisphere were assessed by TOF- and contrast-enhanced MRA using 2 methods: 1) visual 3-point collateral scoring, and 2) collateral signal quantification by an arterial atlas-based collateral index. Collateral measures were tested by receiver operating characteristic curve and logistic regression against 2 imaging end points of tissue-outcome: final infarct volume and percentage of penumbra saved. Visual collateral scores on contrast-enhanced MRA but not TOF were significantly higher in patients with good outcome. Visual collateral scoring on contrast-enhanced MRA was the best rater-based discriminator for final infarct volume 50% (area under the curve, 0.67; P = .04). Atlas-based collateral index of contrast-enhanced MRA was the overall best independent discriminator for final infarct volume of collateral index combining the signal of TOF- and contrast-enhanced MRA was the overall best discriminator for effective reperfusion (percentage of penumbra saved >50%; area under the curve, 0.89; P collateral assessment, TOF- and contrast-enhanced MRA both contain predictive signal information for penumbral reperfusion. This could improve risk stratification in further studies. © 2015 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  20. Prediction of Packed Cell Volume after Whole Blood Transfusion in Small Ruminants and South American Camelids: 80 Cases (2006-2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luethy, D; Stefanovski, D; Salber, R; Sweeney, R W

    2017-11-01

    Calculation of desired whole blood transfusion volume relies on an estimate of an animal's circulating blood volume, generally accepted to be 0.08 L/kg or 8% of the animal's body weight in kilograms. To use packed cell volume before and after whole blood transfusion to evaluate the accuracy of a commonly used equation to predict packed cell volume after transfusion in small ruminants and South American camelids; to determine the nature and frequency of adverse transfusion reactions in small ruminants and camelids after whole blood transfusion. Fifty-eight small ruminants and 22 alpacas that received whole blood transfusions for anemia. Retrospective case series; medical record review for small ruminants and camelids that received whole blood transfusions during hospitalization. Mean volume of distribution of blood as a fraction of body weight in sheep (0.075 L/kg, 7.5% BW) and goats (0.076 L/kg, 7.6% BW) differed significantly (P blood volume (volume of distribution of blood) is adequate for calculation of transfusion volumes; however, use of the species-specific circulating blood volume can improve calculation of transfusion volume to predict and achieve desired packed cell volume. The incidence of transfusion reactions in small ruminants and camelids is low. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  1. The Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System predicts clinical outcomes in acute pancreatitis: findings from a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buxbaum, James; Quezada, Michael; Chong, Bradford; Gupta, Nikhil; Yu, Chung Yao; Lane, Christianne; Da, Ben; Leung, Kenneth; Shulman, Ira; Pandol, Stephen; Wu, Bechien

    2018-03-15

    The Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) has been derived by an international group of experts via a modified Delphi process. Our aim was to perform an external validation study to assess for concordance of the PASS score with high face validity clinical outcomes and determine specific meaningful thresholds to assist in application of this scoring system in a large prospectively ascertained cohort. We analyzed data from a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients admitted to the Los Angeles County Hospital between March 2015 and March 2017. Patients were identified using an emergency department paging system and electronic alert system. Comprehensive characterization included substance use history, pancreatitis etiology, biochemical profile, and detailed clinical course. We calculated the PASS score at admission, discharge, and at 12 h increments during the hospitalization. We performed several analyses to assess the relationship between the PASS score and outcomes at various points during hospitalization as well as following discharge. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, we assessed the relationship between admission PASS score and risk of severe pancreatitis. PASS score performance was compared to established systems used to predict severe pancreatitis. Additional inpatient outcomes assessed included local complications, length of stay, development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We also assessed whether the PASS score at discharge was associated with early readmission (re-hospitalization for pancreatitis symptoms and complications within 30 days of discharge). A total of 439 patients were enrolled, their mean age was 42 (±15) years, and 53% were male. Admission PASS score >140 was associated with moderately severe and severe pancreatitis (OR 3.5 [95% CI 2.0, 6.3]), ICU admission (OR 4.9 [2.5, 9.4]), local complications (3.0 [1.6, 5.7]), and development of SIRS (OR 2.9 [1

  2. Early detection and prediction of cardiotoxicity after radiation therapy for breast cancer: the BACCARAT prospective cohort study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, Sophie; Pathak, Atul; Franck, Denis; Latorzeff, Igor; Jimenez, Gaelle; Fondard, Olivier; Lapeyre, Matthieu; Colombier, Daniel; Bruguiere, Eric; Lairez, Olivier; Fontenel, Benoit; Milliat, Fabien; Tamarat, Radia; Broggio, David; Derreumaux, Sylvie; Ducassou, Marianne; Ferrières, Jean; Laurier, Dominique; Benderitter, Marc; Bernier, Marie-Odile

    2016-01-01

    Radiotherapy (RT) for breast cancer presents a benefit in terms of reducing local recurrence and deaths resulting from breast cancer but it can lead to secondary effects due to the presence of neighboring cardiac normal tissues within the irradiation field. Breast RT has been shown to be associated with long-term increased risk of heart failure, coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction and finally cardiovascular death more than 10 years after RT. However, there is still a lack of knowledge for early cardiotoxicity induced by breast RT that can appear long before the onset of clinically significant cardiac events. Based on a 2-year follow-up prospective cohort of patients treated with breast RT, the BACCARAT (BreAst Cancer and CArdiotoxicity Induced by RAdioTherapy) study aims to enhance knowledge on detection and prediction of early subclinical cardiac dysfunction and lesions induced by breast RT and on biological mechanisms potentially involved, based on functional and anatomical cardiac imaging combined with simultaneous assessment of multiple circulating biomarkers and accurate heart dosimetry. BACCARAT study consists in a monocentric prospective cohort study that will finally include 120 women treated with adjuvant 3D CRT for breast cancer, and followed for 2 years after RT. Women aged 50 to 70 years, treated for breast cancer and for whom adjuvant 3D CRT is indicated, without chemotherapy are eligible for the study. Baseline (before RT) and follow-up data include measurements of functional myocardial dysfunction including strain and strain rate based on 2D-speckle tracking echocardiography, anatomical coronary lesions including description of plaques in segments of coronary arteries based on Coronary computed tomography angiography, and a wide panel of circulating biomarkers. The absorbed dose is evaluated for the whole heart and its substructures, in particular the coronary arteries. Analysis on occurrence and evolution of subclinical cardiac lesions

  3. Preoperative Metabolic Syndrome Is Predictive of Significant Gastric Cancer Mortality after Gastrectomy: The Fujian Prospective Investigation of Cancer (FIESTA Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Hu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Metabolic syndrome (MetS has been shown to be associated with an increased risk of gastric cancer. However, the impact of MetS on gastric cancer mortality remains largely unknown. Here, we prospectively examined the prediction of preoperative MetS for gastric cancer mortality by analyzing a subset of data from the ongoing Fujian prospective investigation of cancer (FIESTA study. This study was conducted among 3012 patients with gastric cancer who received radical gastrectomy between 2000 and 2010. The latest follow-up was completed in 2015. Blood/tissue specimens, demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics were collected at baseline. During 15-year follow-up, 1331 of 3012 patients died of gastric cancer. The median survival time (MST of patients with MetS was 31.3 months, which was significantly shorter than that of MetS-free patients (157.1 months. The coexistence of MetS before surgery was associated with a 2.3-fold increased risk for gastric cancer mortality (P < 0.001. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs were increased with invasion depth T1/T2 (HR = 2.78, P < 0.001, regional lymph node metastasis N0 (HR = 2.65, P < 0.001, positive distant metastasis (HR = 2.53, P < 0.001, TNM stage I/II (HR = 3.00, P < 0.001, intestinal type (HR = 2.96, P < 0.001, negative tumor embolus (HR = 2.34, P < 0.001, and tumor size ≤4.5 cm (HR = 2.49, P < 0.001. Further survival tree analysis confirmed the top splitting role of TNM stage, followed by MetS or hyperglycemia with remarkable discrimination ability. In this large cohort study, preoperative MetS, especially hyperglycemia, was predictive of significant gastric cancer mortality in patients with radical gastrectomy, especially for early stage of gastric cancer.

  4. Clinical application of tumor volume in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma to predict outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ching-Chih; Huang, Tze-Ta; Lee, Moon-Sing; Hsiao, Shih-Hsuan; Lin, Hon-Yi; Su, Yu-Chieh; Hsu, Feng-Chun; Hung, Shih-Kai

    2010-01-01

    Current staging systems have limited ability to adjust optimal therapy in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). This study aimed to delineate the correlation between tumor volume, treatment outcome and chemotherapy cycles in advanced NPC. A retrospective review of 110 patients with stage III-IV NPC was performed. All patients were treated first with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, then concurrent chemoradiation, and followed by adjuvant chemotherapy as being the definitive therapy. Gross tumor volume of primary tumor plus retropharyngeal nodes (GTVprn) was calculated to be an index of treatment outcome. GTVprn had a close relationship with survival and recurrence in advanced NPC. Large GTVprn (≧13 ml) was associated with a significantly poorer local control, lower distant metastasis-free rate, and poorer survival. In patients with GTVprn ≧ 13 ml, overall survival was better after ≧4 cycles of chemotherapy than after less than 4 cycles. The incorporation of GTVprn can provide more information to adjust treatment strategy

  5. Prediction of the volume flux of the thermal plume above a sitting person

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zukowska, Daria; Popiolek, Zbigniew J.; Melikov, Arsen Krikor

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a verification of a relatively simple method of volume flux calculation applied to the asymmetrical thermal plume generated by a sitting person in a condition of an upward piston flow. The method is based on a model of a thermal plume above a point heat source in an unbounded...... space. The plume volume flux, V, can be calculated based on the following equation: V = kv*Qexp(1/3)*(zt-zv)exp(5/3). In the equation zt is the distance from the measuring plane to the top of the heat source and Qc is the convective part of the heat loss. A value of the entrainment coefficient, kv...

  6. Fractal Prediction of Grouting Volume for Treating Karst Caverns along a Shield Tunneling Alignment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Chieh Cheng

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Karst geology is common in China, and buried karst formations are widely distributed in Guangdong province. In the process of shield tunneling, the abundant water resources present in karst caverns could lead to the potential for high water ingress, and a subsequent in situ stress change-induced stratum collapse. The development and distribution of karst caverns should therefore be identified and investigated prior to shield tunnel construction. Grouting is an efficient measure to stabilize karst caverns. The total volume of karst caverns along the shield tunneling alignment, and its relationship with the required volume of grouts, should be evaluated in the preliminary design phase. Conventionally, the total volume of karst caverns is empirically estimated based on limited geological drilling hole data; however, accurate results are rarely obtained. This study investigates the hydrogeology and engineering geology of Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong province, and determines the fractal characteristics of the karst caverns along the tunnel section of Guangzhou metro line no. 9. The karst grouting coefficients (VR were found to vary from 0.11 in the case of inadequate drilling holes to 1.1 in the case where adequate drilling holes are provided. A grouting design guideline was furthermore developed in this study for future projects in karst areas.

  7. Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading. Volume 2, Part 1; Appendices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentz, Steven J.; Ordway, David O.; Parsons, David S.; Garrison, Craig M.; Rodgers, C. Steven; Collins, Brian W.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approximately 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

  8. Tamsulosin reduces nighttime urine production in benign prostatic hyperplasia patients with nocturnal polyuria: a prospective open-label long-term study using frequency-volume chart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojima, Yoshiyuki; Sasaki, Shoichi; Imura, Makoto; Kubota, Yasue; Hayashi, Yutaro; Kohri, Kenjiro

    2012-01-01

    The effects of tamsulosin treatment on changes in frequency-volume chart (FVC) data, especially nighttime urine production, over time were assessed, and the mechanisms underlying the improvement of nocturia in benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) patients with nocturnal polyuria (NP) are discussed. A total of 104 patients with lower urinary tract symptoms secondary to BPH were enrolled. After enrollment in the study, the patients were treated with tamsulosin (0.2 mg) once daily. Visits were scheduled every 4 weeks until week 12 (month 3) after study entry, and then every 12 weeks subsequently. All patients completed the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), quality of life (QOL) index, and 3-day FVC, and underwent uroflowmetry at enrollment and on each visit. Eighty-two patients (mean age: 70.9 ± 7.1 years) were analyzed for 24 months after treatment. Patients were divided into two groups, NP and nonNP, based on FVC outcome. The IPSS, QOL index, and maximum flow rate improved during the 24-month period after treatment in both groups. Mean daytime urine volume significantly increased in the NP group, but no changes were detected in the nonNP group. Mean nighttime urine frequency significantly decreased in the NP group over a 24-month period, and was associated with a significant decrease in nighttime urine volume that was not found in the nonNP group. Maximum voided volume increased most months after treatment in both groups. The present long-term prospective study using FVC demonstrated that tamsulosin reduced nighttime urine production in BPH patients with NP. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Prognostic value of intraventricular bleeding in spontaneous intraparenchymal cerebral hemorrhage of small volume: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortes Lima, Telmo Tiburcio; Prandini, Mirto Nelso; Gallo, Pasquale; Cavalheiro, Sérgio

    2012-04-01

    The literature is controversial on whether intraventricular bleeding has a negative impact on the prognosis of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. Nevertheless, an association between intraventricular bleeding and spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage volumes has been consistently reported. To evaluate the prognostic value of intraventricular bleeding in deep intraparenchymal hypertensive spontaneous hemorrhage with a bleeding volume bleeding was calculated by the LeRoux scale. Clinical data, including neurological complications, were collected daily during hospitalization. Neurological outcome was evaluated 30 days after the event by using the Glasgow outcome scale. Patients were assigned to 1 of 3 groups according to intraventricular bleeding: Control, no intraventricular bleeding; LR 1, intraventricular bleeding with LeRoux scale scores of 1 to 8; or LR 2, intraventricular bleeding with LeRoux scale scores >8. There were no significant differences among groups concerning age, mean blood pressure, and time from onset to brain CT scan. Patients with greater intraventricular bleeding presented lower initial Glasgow coma scale scores, increased ventricular index and width of temporal horns, increased number of clinical and neurological complications, and longer hospitalization. Furthermore, their relative risk for unfavorable clinical outcome was 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.25-2.49). Intraventricular bleeding with a LeRoux scale score >8 appears to have a negative effect on deep spontaneous intraparenchymal cerebral hemorrhage of small volume.

  10. Prediction of cesarean delivery in the term nulliparous woman: results from the prospective, multicenter Genesis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Naomi; Burke, Gerard; Breathnach, Fionnuala; McAuliffe, Fionnuala; Morrison, John J; Turner, Michael; Dornan, Samina; Higgins, John R; Cotter, Amanda; Geary, Michael; McParland, Peter; Daly, Sean; Cody, Fiona; Dicker, Pat; Tully, Elizabeth; Malone, Fergal D

    2017-06-01

    In contemporary practice many nulliparous women require intervention during childbirth such as operative vaginal delivery or cesarean delivery (CD). Despite the knowledge that the increasing rate of CD is associated with increasing maternal age, obesity and larger infant birthweight, we lack a reliable method to predict the requirement for such potentially hazardous obstetric procedures during labor and delivery. This issue is important, as there are greater rates of morbidity and mortality associated with unplanned CD performed in labor compared with scheduled CDs. A prediction algorithm to identify women at risk of an unplanned CD could help reduced labor associated morbidity. In this primary analysis of the Genesis study, our objective was to prospectively assess the use of prenatally determined, maternal and fetal, anthropomorphic, clinical, and ultrasound features to develop a predictive tool for unplanned CD in the term nulliparous woman, before the onset of labor. The Genesis study recruited 2336 nulliparous women with a vertex presentation between 39+0 and 40+6 weeks' gestation in a prospective multicenter national study to examine predictors of CD. At recruitment, a detailed clinical evaluation and ultrasound assessment were performed. To reduce bias from knowledge of these data potentially influencing mode of delivery, women, midwives, and obstetricians were blinded to the ultrasound data. All hypothetical prenatal risk factors for unplanned CD were assessed as a composite. Multiple logistic regression analysis and mathematical modeling was used to develop a risk evaluation tool for CD in nulliparous women. Continuous predictors were standardized using z scores. From a total enrolled cohort of 2336 nulliparous participants, 491 (21%) had an unplanned CD. Five parameters were determined to be the best combined predictors of CD. These were advancing maternal age (odds ratio [OR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09 to 1.34), shorter maternal height (OR

  11. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E. [Allison Engine Co., Indianapolis, IN (United States)

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  12. Clinical implementation of dose-volume histogram predictions for organs-at-risk in IMRT planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, K L; Appenzoller, L M; Tan, J; Michalski, J M; Thorstad, W L; Mutic, S

    2014-01-01

    True quality control (QC) of the planning process requires quantitative assessments of treatment plan quality itself, and QC in IMRT has been stymied by intra-patient anatomical variability and inherently complex three-dimensional dose distributions. In this work we describe the development of an automated system to reduce clinical IMRT planning variability and improve plan quality using mathematical models that predict achievable OAR DVHs based on individual patient anatomy. These models rely on the correlation of expected dose to the minimum distance from a voxel to the PTV surface, whereby a three-parameter probability distribution function (PDF) was used to model iso-distance OAR subvolume dose distributions. DVH models were obtained by fitting the evolution of the PDF with distance. Initial validation on clinical cohorts of 40 prostate and 24 head-and-neck plans demonstrated highly accurate model-based predictions for achievable DVHs in rectum, bladder, and parotid glands. By quantifying the integrated difference between candidate DVHs and predicted DVHs, the models correctly identified plans with under-spared OARs, validated by replanning all cases and correlating any realized improvements against the predicted gains. Clinical implementation of these predictive models was demonstrated in the PINNACLE treatment planning system by use of existing margin expansion utilities and the scripting functionality inherent to the system. To maintain independence from specific planning software, a system was developed in MATLAB to directly process DICOM-RT data. Both model training and patient-specific analyses were demonstrated with significant computational accelerations from parallelization.

  13. Prediction of boiling points of some organic compounds to be used in volume reduction of liquid radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helal, N.L.; Ezz el-Din, M.R.

    2004-01-01

    Boiling points determination may help in the evaporation process used to solidify high-level liquid wastes and to reduce the volume of wastes that require disposal. The problem that always encountered is how to choose an appropriate method to determine the boiling points of the liquid wastes which will be able to solve. We introduce this work with the aim to use mathematical descriptors and their applications in predicting boiling points essential for the evaporation process. This work was applied for diverse database of two sets of chemicals that may exist in radioactive wastes. The first set was 59 alcohols and amines (group a) and the second was 11 aniline compounds (group b). The results show that the used mathematical descriptors give a reasonable predictive model for the diverse sets of molecules

  14. Predictive value of serum soluble corin in the risk of hyperglycemia: A population-based prospective cohort study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhengbao; Zhang, Qiu; Peng, Hao; Zhong, Chongke; Guo, Daoxia; Huangfu, Xinfeng; Chao, Xiangqin; Wang, Aili; Jin, Jianhua; Zhang, Yonghong

    2018-04-01

    Serum soluble corin has been suggested to be associated with hyperglycemia by cross-sectional study. However, the prospective relationship between them remains unclear, and whether lipid component influences the relationship between them has not yet been studied. A total of 1961 participants who were free from hyperglycemia were enrolled at baseline in 2010. The serum soluble corin concentrations were measured at baseline and all participants were followed up for hyperglycemia in 2014. The association between serum soluble corin and hyperglycemia incidence was appreciably modified by high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (P interaction  = 0.04). Elevated serum soluble corin was associated with the risk of hyperglycemia only in the HDL-C ≥1.04 mmol/l subgroup rather than all participants. In participants with HDL-C ≥1.04 mmol/l, the adjusted odds ratio (95% CU) of hyperglycemia associated with the fourth quartiles of corin was 1.78 (1.08-2.94) compared with the lowest quartile of serum soluble corin, and there was a positive linear dose-response relationship between them (P for linearity <0.01). The ordinal analysis showed an association between serum soluble corin and hyperglycemia severity (adjusted OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.10-2.99; P trend  = 0.02, when 2 extreme quartiles were compared). The addition of serum soluble corin to conventional risk factors improved risk prediction for hyperglycemia (net reclassification index: 0.16; integrated discrimination improvement: 0.01) in participants with HDL-C ≥1.04 mmol/l. Serum soluble corin might be a valuable biomarker in prediction of future hyperglycemia in population with HDL-C ≥1.04 mmol/l, suggesting that corin might play a potential role in glucose metabolism. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Preoperative prediction of inpatient recovery of function after total hip arthroplasty using performance-based tests: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oosting, Ellen; Hoogeboom, Thomas J; Appelman-de Vries, Suzan A; Swets, Adam; Dronkers, Jaap J; van Meeteren, Nico L U

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of conventional factors, the Risk Assessment and Predictor Tool (RAPT) and performance-based functional tests as predictors of delayed recovery after total hip arthroplasty (THA). A prospective cohort study in a regional hospital in the Netherlands with 315 patients was attending for THA in 2012. The dependent variable recovery of function was assessed with the Modified Iowa Levels of Assistance scale. Delayed recovery was defined as taking more than 3 days to walk independently. Independent variables were age, sex, BMI, Charnley score, RAPT score and scores for four performance-based tests [2-minute walk test, timed up and go test (TUG), 10-meter walking test (10 mW) and hand grip strength]. Regression analysis with all variables identified older age (>70 years), Charnley score C, slow walking speed (10 mW >10.0 s) and poor functional mobility (TUG >10.5 s) as the best predictors of delayed recovery of function. This model (AUC 0.85, 95% CI 0.79-0.91) performed better than a model with conventional factors and RAPT scores, and significantly better (p = 0.04) than a model with only conventional factors (AUC 0.81, 95% CI 0.74-0.87). The combination of performance-based tests and conventional factors predicted inpatient functional recovery after THA. Two simple functional performance-based tests have a significant added value to a more conventional screening with age and comorbidities to predict recovery of functioning immediately after total hip surgery. Patients over 70 years old, with comorbidities, with a TUG score >10.5 s and a walking speed >1.0 m/s are at risk for delayed recovery of functioning. Those high risk patients need an accurate discharge plan and could benefit from targeted pre- and postoperative therapeutic exercise programs.

  16. Chronology of prescribing error during the hospital stay and prediction of pharmacist's alerts overriding: a prospective analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruni Vanida

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Drug prescribing errors are frequent in the hospital setting and pharmacists play an important role in detection of these errors. The objectives of this study are (1 to describe the drug prescribing errors rate during the patient's stay, (2 to find which characteristics for a prescribing error are the most predictive of their reproduction the next day despite pharmacist's alert (i.e. override the alert. Methods We prospectively collected all medication order lines and prescribing errors during 18 days in 7 medical wards' using computerized physician order entry. We described and modelled the errors rate according to the chronology of hospital stay. We performed a classification and regression tree analysis to find which characteristics of alerts were predictive of their overriding (i.e. prescribing error repeated. Results 12 533 order lines were reviewed, 117 errors (errors rate 0.9% were observed and 51% of these errors occurred on the first day of the hospital stay. The risk of a prescribing error decreased over time. 52% of the alerts were overridden (i.e error uncorrected by prescribers on the following day. Drug omissions were the most frequently taken into account by prescribers. The classification and regression tree analysis showed that overriding pharmacist's alerts is first related to the ward of the prescriber and then to either Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical class of the drug or the type of error. Conclusions Since 51% of prescribing errors occurred on the first day of stay, pharmacist should concentrate his analysis of drug prescriptions on this day. The difference of overriding behavior between wards and according drug Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical class or type of error could also guide the validation tasks and programming of electronic alerts.

  17. Can Bcl-XL expression predict the radio sensitivity of Bilharzial-related squamous bladder carcinoma? a prospective comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamel Nermen A

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Local pelvic recurrence after radical cystectomy for muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma accounts for 75% of treatment failures even in organ confined tumors. Despite the proven value of lymphadenectomy, up to 60% of patients undergoing cystectomy do not have it. These factors are in favor of adjuvant radiotherapy reevaluation. objectives: to evaluate the effect of adjuvant radiotherapy on disease free survival in muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder and to test the predictability of radio-sensitivity using the anti apoptotic protein Bcl-XL. Methods The study prospectively included 71 patients, (47 males, 24 females with muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma of the bladder (Stage pT2a-T3N0-N3M0 who underwent radical cystectomy in Assiut university hospitals between January 2005 and December 2006. Thirty eight patients received adjuvant radiotherapy to the pelvis in the dose of 50Gy/25 fractions/5 weeks (Group 1, while 33 patients did not receive adjuvant radiotherapy (group 2. Immunohistochemical characterization for bcl-xL expression was done. Follow up was done every 3 months for 12 to 36 months with a mean of 16 ± 10 months. All data were analyzed using SPSS version 16. Three years cumulative disease free survival was calculated and adjusted to Bcl-XL expression and side effects of the treatment were recorded. Results The disease free cumulative survival was 48% for group 1 and 29% for group 2 (log rank p value 0.03. The multivariate predictors of tumor recurrence were the positive Bcl-XL expression (odd ratio 41.1, 95% CI 8.4 - 102.3, p Conclusions Adjuvant radiotherapy for muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder has potential effectiveness and minor side effects. Moreover, Bcl-XL expression is a valuable tool for predicting those who might not respond to this adjuvant treatment.

  18. Previous injuries and some training characteristics predict running-related injuries in recreational runners: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hespanhol Junior, Luiz Carlos; Pena Costa, Leonardo Oliveira; Lopes, Alexandre Dias

    2013-12-01

    What is the incidence of running-related injuries (RRIs) in recreational runners? Which personal and training characteristics predict RRIs in recreational runners? Prospective cohort study. A total of 200 recreational runners answered a fortnightly online survey containing questions about their running routine, races, and presence of RRI. These runners were followed-up for a period of 12 weeks. The primary outcome of this study was running-related injury. The incidence of injuries was calculated taking into account the exposure to running and was expressed by RRI/1000 hours. The association between potential predictive factors and RRIs was estimated using generalised estimating equation models. A total of 84 RRIs were registered in 60 (31%) of the 191 recreational runners who completed all follow-up surveys. Of the injured runners 30% (n=18/60) developed two or more RRIs, with 5/18 (28%) being recurrences. The incidence of RRI was 10 RRI/1000 hours of running exposure. The main type of RRI observed was muscle injuries (30%, n=25/84). The knee was the most commonly affected anatomical region (19%, n=16/84). The variables associated with RRI were: previous RRI (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.51), duration of training although the effect was very small (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02), speed training (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.10), and interval training (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.88). Physiotherapists should be aware and advise runners that past RRI and speed training are associated with increased risk of further RRI, while interval training is associated with lower risk, although these associations may not be causative. Copyright © 2013 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Stress, cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones: Prospective prediction of 6-month changes in food cravings and weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Ariana M; Jastreboff, Ania M; White, Marney A; Grilo, Carlos M; Sinha, Rajita

    2017-04-01

    To examine whether baseline chronic stress, morning cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones (leptin, ghrelin, and insulin) predict future weight gain and food cravings in a naturalistic, longitudinal, 6-month follow-up study. A prospective community cohort of 339 adults (age 29.1 ± 9.0 years; BMI = 26.7 ± 5.4 kg/m 2 ; 56.9% female; 70.2% white) completed assessments at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Fasting blood draws were used to assess cortisol and other appetite-related hormone levels at baseline. At baseline and follow-up, body weight was measured, and the Cumulative Adversity Interview and Food Craving Inventory were administered. Data were analyzed using linear mixed models adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Over the 6-month period, 49.9% of the sample gained weight. Food cravings and chronic stress decreased over 6 months (Ps < 0.05). However, after adjusting for covariates, individuals with higher baseline total ghrelin had significantly higher food cravings at 6 months (P = 0.04). Furthermore, higher cortisol, insulin, and chronic stress were each predictive of greater future weight gain (Ps < 0.05). These results suggest that ghrelin plays a role in increased food cravings and reward-driven eating behaviors. Studies are needed that examine the utility of stress reduction methods for normalizing disrupted cortisol responses and preventing future weight gain. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  20. PROSPECT improves cis-acting regulatory element prediction by integrating expression profile data with consensus pattern searches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujibuchi, Wataru; Anderson, John S. J.; Landsman, David

    2001-01-01

    Consensus pattern and matrix-based searches designed to predict cis-acting transcriptional regulatory sequences have historically been subject to large numbers of false positives. We sought to decrease false positives by incorporating expression profile data into a consensus pattern-based search method. We have systematically analyzed the expression phenotypes of over 6000 yeast genes, across 121 expression profile experiments, and correlated them with the distribution of 14 known regulatory elements over sequences upstream of the genes. Our method is based on a metric we term probabilistic element assessment (PEA), which is a ranking of potential sites based on sequence similarity in the upstream regions of genes with similar expression phenotypes. For eight of the 14 known elements that we examined, our method had a much higher selectivity than a naïve consensus pattern search. Based on our analysis, we have developed a web-based tool called PROSPECT, which allows consensus pattern-based searching of gene clusters obtained from microarray data. PMID:11574681

  1. Telephone Encounters Predict Future High Financial Expenditures in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: A 3-Year Prospective Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Click, Benjamin; Anderson, Alyce M; Ramos Rivers, Claudia; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E; Hashash, Jana G; Dunn, Michael A; Schwartz, Marc; Swoger, Jason; Barrie, Arthur; Szigethy, Eva; Regueiro, Miguel; Schoen, Robert E; Binion, David G

    2018-04-01

    Telephone activity is essential in management of complex chronic diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Telephone encounters logged in the electronic medical record have recently been proposed as a surrogate marker of disease activity and impending health care utilization; however, the association between telephone calls and financial expenditures has not been evaluated. We performed a 3-year prospective observational study of telephone encounters logged at a tertiary referral IBD center. We analyzed patient demographics, disease characteristics, comorbidities, clinical activity, and health care financial charges by telephone encounter frequency. Eight hundred one patients met inclusion criteria (52.3% female; mean age, 44.1 y), accounted for 12,669 telephone encounters, and accrued $70,513,449 in charges over 3 years. High telephone encounter frequency was associated with female gender (P=0.003), anxiety/depression (Pfinancial charges the following year after controlling for demographic, utilization, and medication covariates. Increased telephone encounters are associated with significantly higher health care utilization and financial expenditures. Increased call frequency is predictive of future health care spending. Telephone encounters are a useful tool to identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration and large financial expense.

  2. Specificity in autobiographical memory narratives correlates with performance on the Autobiographical Memory Test and prospectively predicts depressive symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, Jennifer A.; Mineka, Susan; McAdams, Dan P.

    2012-01-01

    Reduced autobiographical memory specificity (AMS) is an important cognitive marker in depression that is typically measured with the Autobiographical Memory Test (AMT; Williams & Broadbent, 1986). The AMT is widely used, but the overreliance on a single methodology for assessing AMS is a limitation in the field. The current study investigated memory narratives as an alternative measure of AMS in an undergraduate student sample selected for being high or low on a measure of depressive symptoms (N = 55). We employed a multi-method design to compare narrative- and AMT-based measures of AMS. Participants generated personally significant self-defining memory narratives, and also completed two versions of the AMT (with and without instructions to retrieve specific memories). Greater AMS in self-defining memory narratives correlated with greater AMS in performance on both versions of the AMT in the full sample, and the patterns of relationships between the different AMS measures were generally similar in low and high dysphoric participants. Furthermore, AMS in self-defining memory narratives was prospectively associated with depressive symptom levels. Specifically, greater AMS in self-defining memory narratives predicted fewer depressive symptoms at a 10-week follow-up over and above baseline symptom levels. Implications for future research and clinical applications are discussed. PMID:23240988

  3. Energy prospects of France at the 2020-2050 vista. Report of the Energy Commission presided over by Jean Syrota - Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This book makes a synthesis of the works carried out by the Energy commission, implemented in May 2006 by the Centre of Strategic Analysis and gathering the different actors in concern: representatives, social partners, national and European administrations, operators and industrialists, consumer associations, research organizations, etc.. A second volume is available which gathers the integrality of the five working group reports. This collective work fits inside a series of studies that the public authorities have periodically launched on the energy question. They have led to the elaboration of energy policies, still dominated by the hydrocarbon prices: ambitious and rigorous during high price eras, non-obstructive and relaxed during low price eras. Todays, the global warming dominates the energy policy. In this context, a large-scale and permanent new policy has become mandatory to reduce as quickly as possible the CO 2 emissions linked to the satisfaction of energy needs. It must definitely fit with the European framework as well. The Energy Commission recommends that France prevails upon the European Union to adopt a highly voluntaristic policy of greenhouse gases abatement at the 2050 prospects based on a fair share among the member states of the efforts to be achieved. This document includes a prospective analysis of the geopolitical situation, evaluates the technological efforts to come and lists some consistent action proposals for France and the European and national scale. (J.S.)

  4. Is the Predictability of New-Onset Postpartum Depression Better During Pregnancy or in the Early Postpartum Period? A Prospective Study in Croatian Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakić Radoš, Sandra; Herman, Radoslav; Tadinac, Meri

    2016-01-01

    The researchers' aim was to examine whether it was better to predict new-onset postpartum depression (PPD) during pregnancy or immediately after childbirth. A prospective study conducted in Croatia followed women (N = 272) from the third trimester of pregnancy through the early postpartum period (within the first 3 postpartum days), to 6 weeks postpartum. Questionnaires on depression, anxiety, stress, coping, self-esteem, and social support were administered. Through regression analyses we showed that PPD symptoms could be equally predicted by variables from pregnancy (30.3%) and the early postpartum period (34.0%), with a small advantage of PPD prediction in the early postpartum period.

  5. The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean. Volume 1: Strategic summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-05-15

    The proposed COPS (Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems) program is concerned with combining numerical models with observations (through data assimilation) to improve our predictive knowledge of the coastal ocean. It is oriented toward applied research and development and depends upon the continued pursuit of basic research in programs like COOP (Coastal Ocean Processes); i.e., to a significant degree it is involved with ``technology transfer`` from basic knowledge to operational and management applications. This predictive knowledge is intended to address a variety of societal problems: (1) ship routing, (2) trajectories for search and rescue operations, (3) oil spill trajectory simulations, (4) pollution assessments, (5) fisheries management guidance, (6) simulation of the coastal ocean`s response to climate variability, (7) calculation of sediment transport, (8) calculation of forces on structures, and so forth. The initial concern is with physical models and observations in order to provide a capability for the estimation of physical forces and transports in the coastal ocean. For all these applications, there are common needs for physical field estimates: waves, tides, currents, temperature, and salinity, including mixed layers, thermoclines, fronts, jets, etc. However, the intent is to work with biologists, chemists, and geologists in developing integrated multidisciplinary prediction systems as it becomes feasible to do so. From another perspective, by combining observations with models through data assimilation, a modern approach to monitoring is provided through whole-field estimation.

  6. Evaluation of PSA-age volume score in predicting prostate cancer in Chinese populationArticle Subject.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yi-Shuo; Wu, Xiao-Bo; Zhang, Ning; Jiang, Guang-Liang; Yu, Yang; Tong, Shi-Jun; Jiang, Hao-Wen; Mao, Shan-Hua; Na, Rong; Ding, Qiang

    2018-02-06

    This study was performed to evaluate prostate-specific antigen-age volume (PSA-AV) scores in predicting prostate cancer (PCa) in a Chinese biopsy population. A total of 2355 men who underwent initial prostate biopsy from January 2006 to November 2015 in Huashan Hospital were recruited in the current study. The PSA-AV scores were calculated and assessed together with PSA and PSA density (PSAD) retrospectively. Among 2133 patients included in the analysis, 947 (44.4%) were diagnosed with PCa. The mean age, PSA, and positive rates of digital rectal examination result and transrectal ultrasound result were statistically higher in men diagnosed with PCa (all P PSA-AV were 0.864 and 0.851, respectively, in predicting PCa in the entire population, both performed better than PSA (AUC = 0.805; P PSA-AV was more obvious in subgroup with PSA ranging from 2.0 ng ml-1 to 20.0 ng ml-1. A PSA-AV score of 400 had a sensitivity and specificity of 93.7% and 40.0%, respectively. In conclusion, the PSA-AV score performed equally with PSAD and was better than PSA in predicting PCa. This indicated that PSA-AV score could be a useful tool for predicting PCa in Chinese population.

  7. Does increased nerve length within the treatment volume improve trigeminal neuralgia radiosurgery? a prospective double-blind, randomized study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flickinger, John C.; Pollock, Bruce E.; Kondziolka, Douglas; Phuong, Loi K.; Foote, Robert L.; Stafford, Scott L.; Lunsford, L. Dade

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: To test the hypothesis that increasing the nerve length within the treatment volume for trigeminal neuralgia radiosurgery would improve pain relief. Methods and Materials: Eighty-seven patients with typical trigeminal neuralgia were randomized to undergo retrogasserian gamma knife radiosurgery (75 Gy maximal dose with 4-mm diameter collimators) using either one (n=44) or two (n=43) isocenters. The median follow-up was 26 months (range 1-36). Results: Pain relief was complete in 57 patients (45 without medication and 12 with low-dose medication), partial in 15, and minimal in another 15 patients. The actuarial rate of obtaining complete pain relief (with or without medication) was 67.7%±5.1%. The pain relief was identical for one- and two-isocenter radiosurgery. Pain relapsed in 30 of 72 responding patients. Facial numbness and mild and severe paresthesias developed in 8, 5, and 1 two-isocenter patients vs. 3, 4, and 0 one-isocenter patients, respectively (p=0.23). Improved pain relief correlated with younger age (p=0.025) and fewer prior procedures (p=0.039) and complications (numbness or paresthesias) correlated with the nerve length irradiated (p=0.018). Conclusions: Increasing the treatment volume to include a longer nerve length for trigeminal neuralgia radiosurgery does not significantly improve pain relief but may increase complications

  8. Predictive Value of Different Expressions of Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second (FEV1) for Adverse Outcomes in a Cohort of Adults Aged 80 and Older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegendörfer, Eralda; Vaes, Bert; Andreeva, Elena; Matheï, Catharina; Van Pottelbergh, Gijs; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2017-02-01

    Forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ) is proposed as a marker of healthy ageing and FEV 1 expressions that are independent of reference values have been reported to be better at predicting mortality in older adults. We assess and compare the predictive value of different FEV 1 expressions for mortality, hospitalization, and physical and mental decline in adults aged 80 and older. Population-based, prospective, cohort study. The BELFRAIL study, Belgium. A total of 501 community-dwelling adults aged 80 and older (mean age 84.7 years). Baseline FEV 1 expressed as percent predicted (FEV 1 PP) and z-score (FEV 1 Z) using the Global Lung Function Initiative 2012 reference values; over lowest sex-specific percentile (FEV 1 Q), and height squared (FEV 1 /Ht 2 ) and cubed (FEV 1 /Ht 3 ). Mortality data until 5.1 ± 0.2 years from baseline; hospitalization data until 3.0 ± 0.25 years. Activities of daily living, battery of physical performance tests, Mini-Mental State Examination, and 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale at baseline and after 1.7 ± 0.2 years. Individuals in the lowest quartile of FEV 1 expressions had higher adjusted risk than the rest of study population for all-cause mortality (highest hazard ratio 2.05 [95% Confidence Interval 1.50-2.80] for FEV 1 Q and 2.01 [1.47-2.76] for FEV 1 /Ht 3 ), first hospitalization (highest hazard ratio 1.63 [1.21-2.16] for FEV 1 /Ht 2 and 1.61[1.20-2.16] for FEV 1 /Ht 3 ), mental decline (highest odds ratio 2.80 [1.61-4.89] for FEV 1 Q) and physical decline (only FEV 1 /Ht 3 with odds ratio 1.93 [1.13-3.30]). Based on risk classification improvement measures, FEV 1 /Ht 3 and FEV 1 Q performed better than FEV 1 PP. In a cohort of adults aged 80 and older, FEV 1 expressions that are independent of reference values (FEV 1 /Ht 3 and FEV 1 Q) were better at predicting adverse health outcomes than traditional expressions that depend on reference values, and should be used in further research on FEV 1 and aging

  9. Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT: Utility for prediction of improved postoperative outcome in lung volume reduction surgery candidates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takenaka, Daisuke; Ohno, Yoshiharu; Koyama, Hisanobu; Nogami, Munenobu; Onishi, Yumiko; Matsumoto, Keiko; Yoshikawa, Takeshi; Matsumoto, Sumiaki; Sugimura, Kazuro

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To directly compare the capabilities of perfusion scan, SPECT, co-registered SPECT/CT, and quantitatively and qualitatively assessed MDCT (i.e. quantitative CT and qualitative CT) for predicting postoperative clinical outcome for lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) candidates. Materials and methods: Twenty-five consecutive candidates (19 men and six women, age range: 42-72 years) for LVRS underwent preoperative CT and perfusion scan with SPECT. Clinical outcome of LVRS for all subjects was also assessed by determining the difference between pre- and postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) and 6-min walking distance (6MWD). All SPECT examinations were performed on a SPECT scanner, and co-registered to thin-section CT by using commercially available software. On planar imaging, SPECT and SPECT/CT, upper versus lower zone or lobe ratios (U/Ls) were calculated from regional uptakes between upper and lower lung fields in the operated lung. On quantitatively assessed CT, U/L for all subjects was assessed from regional functional lung volumes. On qualitatively assessed CT, planar imaging, SPECT and co-registered SPECT/CT, U/Ls were assessed with a 4-point visual scoring system. To compare capabilities of predicting clinical outcome, each U/L was statistically correlated with the corresponding clinical outcome. Results: Significantly fair or moderate correlations were observed between quantitatively and qualitatively assessed U/Ls obtained with all four methods and clinical outcomes (-0.60 ≤ r ≤ -0.42, p < 0.05). Conclusion: Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT has better correlation with clinical outcome in LVRS candidates than do planar imaging, SPECT or qualitatively assessed CT, and is at least as valid as quantitatively assessed CT.

  10. Exploiting the capabilities of the Sentinel-2 multi spectral instrument for predicting growing stock volume in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mura, Matteo; Bottalico, Francesca; Giannetti, Francesca; Bertani, Remo; Giannini, Raffaello; Mancini, Marco; Orlandini, Simone; Travaglini, Davide; Chirici, Gherardo

    2018-04-01

    The spatial prediction of growing stock volume is one of the most frequent application of remote sensing for supporting the sustainable management of forest ecosystems. For such a purpose data from active or passive sensors are used as predictor variables in combination with measures taken in the field in sampling plots. The Sentinel-2 (S2) satellites are equipped with a Multi Spectral Instrument (MSI) capable of acquiring 13 bands in the visible and infrared domains with a spatial resolution varying between 10 and 60 m. The present study aimed at evaluating the performance of the S2-MSI imagery for estimating the growing stock volume of forest ecosystems. To do so we used 240 plots measured in two study areas in Italy. The imputation was carried out with eight k-Nearest Neighbours (k-NN) methods available in the open source YaImpute R package. In order to evaluate the S2-MSI performance we repeated the experimental protocol also with two other sets of images acquired by two well-known satellites equipped with multi spectral instruments: Landsat 8 OLI and RapidEye scanner. We found that S2 worked better than Landsat in 37.5% of the cases and in 62.5% of the cases better than RapidEye. In one study area the best performance was obtained with Landsat OLI (RMSD = 6.84%) and in the other with S2 (RMSD = 22.94%), both with the k-NN system based on a distance matrix calculated with the Random Forest algorithm. The results confirmed that S2 images are suitable for predicting growing stock volume obtaining good performances (average RMSD for both the test areas of less than 19%).

  11. Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT: Utility for prediction of improved postoperative outcome in lung volume reduction surgery candidates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takenaka, Daisuke [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Ohno, Yoshiharu, E-mail: yosirad@kobe-u.ac.j [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Koyama, Hisanobu [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Nogami, Munenobu [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Division of Image-Based Medicine, Institute of Biomedical Research and Innovation, 2-2, Minatojima Minamimachi Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0047 (Japan); Onishi, Yumiko [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Matsumoto, Keiko [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Department of Radiology, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimogato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898 (Japan); Yoshikawa, Takeshi; Matsumoto, Sumiaki; Sugimura, Kazuro [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan)

    2010-06-15

    Purpose: To directly compare the capabilities of perfusion scan, SPECT, co-registered SPECT/CT, and quantitatively and qualitatively assessed MDCT (i.e. quantitative CT and qualitative CT) for predicting postoperative clinical outcome for lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) candidates. Materials and methods: Twenty-five consecutive candidates (19 men and six women, age range: 42-72 years) for LVRS underwent preoperative CT and perfusion scan with SPECT. Clinical outcome of LVRS for all subjects was also assessed by determining the difference between pre- and postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV{sub 1}) and 6-min walking distance (6MWD). All SPECT examinations were performed on a SPECT scanner, and co-registered to thin-section CT by using commercially available software. On planar imaging, SPECT and SPECT/CT, upper versus lower zone or lobe ratios (U/Ls) were calculated from regional uptakes between upper and lower lung fields in the operated lung. On quantitatively assessed CT, U/L for all subjects was assessed from regional functional lung volumes. On qualitatively assessed CT, planar imaging, SPECT and co-registered SPECT/CT, U/Ls were assessed with a 4-point visual scoring system. To compare capabilities of predicting clinical outcome, each U/L was statistically correlated with the corresponding clinical outcome. Results: Significantly fair or moderate correlations were observed between quantitatively and qualitatively assessed U/Ls obtained with all four methods and clinical outcomes (-0.60 {<=} r {<=} -0.42, p < 0.05). Conclusion: Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT has better correlation with clinical outcome in LVRS candidates than do planar imaging, SPECT or qualitatively assessed CT, and is at least as valid as quantitatively assessed CT.

  12. Serum Procalcitonin and Peripheral Venous Lactate for Predicting Dengue Shock and/or Organ Failure: A Prospective Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vipa Thanachartwet

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Currently, there are no biomarkers that can predict the incidence of dengue shock and/or organ failure, although the early identification of risk factors is important in determining appropriate management to reduce mortality. Therefore, we sought to determine the factors associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure and to evaluate the prognostic value of serum procalcitonin (PCT and peripheral venous lactate (PVL levels as biomarkers of dengue shock and/or organ failure.A prospective observational study was conducted among adults hospitalized for confirmed viral dengue infection at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Bangkok, Thailand between October 2013 and July 2015. Data, including baseline characteristics, clinical parameters, laboratory findings, serum PCT and PVL levels, management, and outcomes, were recorded on pre-defined case report forms. Of 160 patients with dengue, 128 (80.0% patients had dengue without shock or organ failure, whereas 32 (20.0% patients developed dengue with shock and/or organ failure. Using a stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis, PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL (odds ratio [OR]: 4.80; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.60-14.45; p = 0.005 and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L (OR: 27.99, 95% CI: 8.47-92.53; p <0.001 were independently associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure. A combination of PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L provided good prognostic value for predicting dengue shock and/or organ failure, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.92, a sensitivity of 81.2% (95% CI: 63.6-92.8%, and a specificity of 84.4% (95% CI: 76.9-90.2%. Dengue shock patients with non-clearance of PCT and PVL expired during hospitalization.PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L were independently associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure. The combination of PCT and PVL levels could be used as prognostic biomarkers for the prediction of dengue shock and/or organ failure.

  13. Prediction of Packed Cell Volume after Whole Blood Transfusion in Small Ruminants and South American Camelids: 80 Cases (2006–2016)

    OpenAIRE

    Luethy, D.; Stefanovski, D.; Salber, R.; Sweeney, R.W.

    2017-01-01

    Background Calculation of desired whole blood transfusion volume relies on an estimate of an animal's circulating blood volume, generally accepted to be 0.08 L/kg or 8% of the animal's body weight in kilograms. Objective To use packed cell volume before and after whole blood transfusion to evaluate the accuracy of a commonly used equation to predict packed cell volume after transfusion in small ruminants and South American camelids; to determine the nature and frequency of adverse transfusion...

  14. Prediction of the Soil Water Characteristic from Soil Particle Volume Fractions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naveed, Muhammad; Møldrup, Per; Tuller, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Modelling water distribution and flow in partially saturated soils requires knowledge of the soil-water characteristic (SWC). However, measurement of the SWC is challenging and time-consuming, and in some cases not feasible. This study introduces two predictive models (Xw-model and Xw......*-model) for the SWC, derived from readily available soil properties such as texture and bulk density. A total of 46 soils from different horizons at 15 locations across Denmark were used for models evaluation. The Xw-model predicts the volumetric water content as a function of volumetric fines content (organic matter...... (organic matter, clay, silt, fine and coarse sand), variably included in the model depending on the pF value. The volumetric content of a particular soil particle size fraction was included in the model if it was assumed to contribute to the pore size fraction still occupied with water at the given p...

  15. Advanced Durability Analysis. Volume 2. Analytical Predictions, Test Results and Analytical Correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-02-27

    Deteministic Crack Growth ApprMach ( CApm -DCG-) Ndaft)/dt m 101Ca )I SUVICE TINE Wh Two-stit btei’uinistic-stochastic Crack Groth Approach (WHO-CG) Figure...physical description of the state of damage for a durability- critical component and a logical basis for estimating structural maintenance/repair require...The stress level for each stress region is important for crack growth predictions. Therefore, the stress analysis for durability- critical components

  16. A prospective randomised controlled study for evaluation of high-volume low-concentration intraperitoneal bupivacaine for post-laparoscopic cholecystectomy analgesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shruti Jain

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Low-volume high-concentration bupivacaine irrigation of the peritoneal cavity has been reported to be ineffective for short-term analgesia after laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC. This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of intraperitoneal instillation of high-volume low-concentration bupivacaine for post-operative analgesia in LC. Methods: Sixty patients undergoing LC were included in this prospective, double-blind, randomised study. Patients were divided into two (n = 30 groups. In Group S, intraperitoneal irrigation was done with 500 ml of normal saline. In Group B, 20 ml of 0.5% (100 mg bupivacaine was added to 480 ml of normal saline for intraperitoneal irrigation during and after surgery. Post-operative pain was assessed by numeric pain rating scale (NRS at fixed time intervals. Duration of analgesia (DOA, total rescue analgesic requirement (intravenous tramadol, presence of shoulder pain, nausea and vomiting were recorded for the initial 24 h post-operatively. Results: Mean DOA in Group S was 0.06 ± 0.172 h (3.6 ± 10.32 min and that in Group B was 19.35 ± 8.64 h (P = 0.000. Cumulative requirement of rescue analgesic in 24 h in Group S was 123.33 ± 43.01 mg and that in Group B was 23.33 ± 43.01 mg (P = 0.000. There was no significant difference in incidence of shoulder pain, nausea and vomiting between the groups. Conclusion: High-volume low-concentration of intraperitoneal bupivacaine significantly increases post-operative DOA and reduces opioid requirement after LC.

  17. Microinvasion of liver metastases from colorectal cancer: predictive factors and application for determining clinical target volume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian, Yang; Zeng, Zhao-Chong; Ji, Yuan; Xiao, Yin-Ping

    2015-01-01

    This study evaluates the microscopic characteristics of liver metastases from colorectal cancer (LMCRC) invasion and provides a reference for expansion from gross tumor volume (GTV) to clinical targeting volume (CTV). Data from 129 LMCRC patients treated by surgical resection at our hospital between January 2008 and September 2009 were collected for study. Tissue sections used for pathology and clinical data were reviewed. Patient information used for the study included gender, age, original tumor site, number of tumors, tumor size, levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 199 (CA199), synchronous or metachronous liver metastases, and whether patients received chemotherapy. The distance of liver microinvasion from the tumor boundary was measured microscopically by two senior pathologists. Of 129 patients evaluated, 81 (62.8 %) presented microinvasion distances from the tumor boundary ranging between 1.0 − 7.0 mm. A GTV-to-CTV expansion of 5, 6.7, or 7.0 mm was required to provide a 95, 99, or 100 % probability, respectively, of obtaining clear resection margins by microscopic observation. The extent of invasion was not related to gender, age, synchronous or metachronous liver metastases, tumor size, CA199 level, or chemotherapy. The extent of invasion was related to original tumor site, CEA level, and number of tumors. A scoring system was established based on the latter three positive predictors. Using this system, an invasion distance less than 3 mm was measured in 93.4 % of patients with a score of ≤1 point, but in only 85.7 % of patients with a score of ≤2 points. The extent of tumor invasion in our LMCRC patient cohort correlated with original tumor site, CEA level, and number of tumors. These positive predictors may potentially be used as a scoring system for determining GTV-to-CTV expansion

  18. The predictive value of treatment response using FDG PET performed on day 21 of chemoradiotherapy in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. A prospective, multicentre study (RTEP3)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palie, Odre; Vera, Pierre [Henri Becquerel Cancer Center and Rouen University Hospital, and QuantIF - LITIS (EA 4108), University of Rouen, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Rouen (France); Michel, Pierre; Di Fiore, Frederic [Rouen University Hospital and University of Rouen, Digestive Oncology Unit, Hepatogastroenterology Department, Rouen (France); Menard, Jean-Francois [Rouen University Hospital and University of Rouen, Department of Biostatistic, Rouen (France); Rousseau, Caroline; Bridji, Boumediene [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Renee Gauducheau Cancer Center, Nantes (France); Rio, Emmanuel [Department of Radiotherapy, Renee Gauducheau Cancer Center, Nantes (France); Benyoucef, Ahmed [Department of Radiotherapy, Henri Becquerel Cancer Center, Rouen (France); Meyer, Marc-Etienne [Amiens University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Amiens (France); Jalali, Khadija [Amiens University Hospital, Department of Radiotherapy, Amiens (France); Bardet, Stephane [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Francois Baclesse Cancer Center, Caen (France); M' Vondo, Che Mabubu [Department of radiotherapy, Francois Baclesse Cancer Center, Caen (France); Olivier, Pierre [Brabois University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nancy (France); Faure, Guillaume [Department of Radiotherapy, Centre prive de Radiotherapie de Metz, Metz (France); Itti, Emmanuel [Henri Mondor University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Creteil (France); Diana, Christian [Henri Mondor University Hospital, Department of Radiotherapy, Creteil (France); Houzard, Claire [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France); Mornex, Francoise [Department of Radiotherapy, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France)

    2013-09-15

    FDG PET has been suggested to have predictive value in the prognosis of oesophageal carcinoma. However, the retrospective studies reported in the literature have shown discordant results. Additionally, only four studies have evaluated FDG PET during chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with different histological lesions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive value of FDG PET performed early during CRT (on day 21) in a population of patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Included in this prospective study were 57 patients with a histological diagnosis of squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus. Of these 57 patients, 48 (84 %) were evaluated (aged 63 {+-} 11 years; 44 men, 4 women). Each patient underwent FDG PET (4.5 MBq/kg) before CRT, according to the Herskovic protocol (t0; PET{sub 1}) and on day 21 {+-} 3 from the start of CRT (d21; PET{sub 2}). The response assessment included a clinical examination, CT scan or FDG PET and histological analysis 3 months and 1 year after PET{sub 1}. The patients were classified as showing a complete response (CR) or a noncomplete response. A quantitative analysis was carried out for PET{sub 1} and PET{sub 2} using the following parameters: SUVmax, SUVmean (with SUVmean{sub 40} as the 3-D volume at an SUVmax threshold of 40 % and SUVmean{sub p} as that defined by a physician), tumour volume (TV, with TV{sub 40} defined as the TV at 40 % of SUVmax, and TV{sub p} as that defined by a physician); and the total lesion glycolysis (TLG, SUVmean x TV, with TLG{sub 40} defined as the TLG at 40 % of SUVmax, and TLG{sub p} as that defined by a physician). The differences in responses at 3 months and 1 year between PET{sub 1} (t0) and PET{sub 2} (d21) were assessed in terms of variations in SUV, TV and TLG using a repeated measures of variance (ANOVA). SUVmax, SUVmean and TLG decreased significantly between PET{sub 1} (t0) and PET{sub 2} (d21; p < 0.0001). The TV significantly decreased only when assessed

  19. Low Self-Esteem during Adolescence Predicts Poor Health, Criminal Behavior, and Limited Economic Prospects during Adulthood