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Sample records for volumes prospectively predicted

  1. Pituitary Volume Prospectively Predicts Internalizing Symptoms in Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipursky, Amy R.; Whittle, Sarah; Yucel, Murat; Lorenzetti, Valentina; Wood, Stephen J.; Lubman, Dan I.; Simmons, Julian G.; Allen, Nicholas B.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Early adolescence is a critical time for the development of both internalizing and externalizing disorders. We aimed to investigate whether pituitary volume, an index of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis function, represents a vulnerability factor for the emergence of internalizing and externalizing symptoms during adolescence…

  2. Pituitary Volume Prospectively Predicts Internalizing Symptoms in Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipursky, Amy R.; Whittle, Sarah; Yucel, Murat; Lorenzetti, Valentina; Wood, Stephen J.; Lubman, Dan I.; Simmons, Julian G.; Allen, Nicholas B.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Early adolescence is a critical time for the development of both internalizing and externalizing disorders. We aimed to investigate whether pituitary volume, an index of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis function, represents a vulnerability factor for the emergence of internalizing and externalizing symptoms during adolescence…

  3. A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research

    CERN Document Server

    Ogata, Yosihiko

    2013-01-01

    Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective prediction, complex conditions and uncertain elements must be considered, which necessitates stochastic prediction. In particular, a large amount of uncertainty lies in identifying whether abnormal phenomena are precursors to large earthquakes, as well as in assigning urgency to the earthquake. Any discovery of potentially useful information for earthquake prediction is incomplete unless quantitative modeling of risk is considered. Therefore, this manuscript describes the prospect of earthquake predictability research to realize practical operational forecasting in the near future.

  4. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  5. Prospects for Predicting Cycle 24

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Arnab Rai Choudhuri

    2008-03-01

    Although we have reliable data of solar polar fields only from the mid-1970s, it seems that the polar field at a minimum is well correlated with the next cycle, but the strength of the cycle is not correlated with the polar field produced at its end. We explain this by suggesting that the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal field generation from tilted active regions involves randomness, whereas the other aspects of the dynamo process are more ordered. To model actual cycles, we have to ‘correct’ our theoretical dynamo model by ‘feeding’ information about the polar field at the minima. Following this process, we find that our model fits the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21–23 reasonably well and predicts that cycle 24 will be the weakest in a century.

  6. Inclusion of functional information from perfusion SPECT improves predictive value of dose-volume parameters in lung toxicity outcome after radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer: A prospective study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farr, Katherina P; Kallehauge, Jesper F; Møller, Ditte S;

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To compare functional and standard dose-volume parameters as predictors of postradiation pulmonary toxicity in lung cancer patients undergoing curative chemo-radiotherapy (RT) studied prospectively. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 58 patients treated with Intensity...... pneumonitis (RP) grade 2-5. RESULTS: Functional mean lung dose (MLD) and lung volumes receiving 5, 10, 20 and 30Gy (V5-V30, respectively) revealed high correlation with corresponding standard parameters (r>0.8). Standard MLD, V20 and V30 were significantly higher in patients with RP (p=0.01). All functional...... Modulated RT (60-66Gy) were analysed. Standard dose-volume parameters were extracted from treatment planning computed tomography (CT) scans. Corresponding functional dose-volume parameters were calculated from perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). Primary end-point was radiation...

  7. Prediction of Railway Passenger Traffic Volume

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The current situation of the railway passenger traffic (RPT) andthe traffic marketing is analyzed. The grey model theory is adopted to establish a prediction model for the railway passenger traffic volume (RPTV). The RPTV from 2001 to 2005 is predicted with the proposed model, and a few suggestions are put forward.

  8. Predicting residents' performance: A prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozuah Philip O

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Objective criteria for predicting residents' performance do not exist. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that global assessment by an intern selection committee (ISC would correlate with the future performance of residents. Methods A prospective study of 277 residents between 1992 and 1999. Global assessment at the time of interview was compared to subsequent clinical (assessed by chief residents and cognitive performance (assessed by the American Board of Pediatrics in-service training examination. Results ISC ratings correlated significantly with clinical performance at 24 and 36 months of training (r = 0.58, P st, 2nd, and 3rd years of training (r = 0.35, P = .0016; r = 0.39, P = 0.0003; r = 0.50, P = 0.005 respectively. Conclusions Global assessment by an ISC predicted residents' clinical and cognitive performances.

  9. Predictive modelling for swallowing dysfunction after primary (chemo)radiation : Results of a prospective observational study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christianen, Miranda E M C; Schilstra, Cornelis; Beetz, Ivo; Muijs, C.T.; Chouvalova, Olga; Burlage, Fred R.; Doornaert, P.; Koken, P.W.; Leemans, C.R.; Rinkel, R.N.; de Bruijn, M.J.; de Bock, G.H.; Roodenburg, J.L.; van der Laan, B.F.; Slotman, B.J.; Verdonck-de Leeuw, I.M.; Bijl, Hendrik P.; Langendijk, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Background and purpose: The purpose of this large multicentre prospective cohort study was to identify which dose volume histogram parameters and pre-treatment factors are most important to predict physician-rated and patient-rated radiation-induced swallowing dysfunction (RISD) in order to develop

  10. Predictive value of Pre-treatment Amygdala volume for Electroconvulsive Therapy Response in Severely Depressed Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freek eTen Doesschate

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT is an effective treatment for patients with severe depression. Knowledge on factors predicting therapeutic response may help to identify patients who will benefit most from the intervention. Based on the neuroplasticity hypothesis, volumes of the amygdala and hippocampus are possible candidates for predicting treatment outcome. Therefore, this prospective cohort study examines the predictive value of amygdala and hippocampal volumes for the effectiveness of ECT.Methods Prior to ECT, 53 severely unipolar depressed patients (mean age 57±14 years; 40% [n=21] male received structural magnetic resonance imaging at 1.5 Tesla. Normalized amygdala and hippocampal volumes were calculated based on automatic segmentation by FreeSurfer. Regression analyses were used to test if the normalized volumes could predict the response to a course of ECT, based on the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS scores. ResultsA larger amygdala volume independently and significantly predicted a lower post-ECT MADRS score (β = -0.347, P=0.013. The left amygdala volume had greater predictive value for treatment outcome relative to the right amygdala volume. Hippocampal volume had no independent predictive value.Conclusion A larger pretreatment amygdala volume predicted more effective ECT, independent of other known predictors. Almost all patients continued their medication during the study, which might have influenced the course of treatment in ways that were not taken into account.

  11. Emotional maltreatment and depression: prospective prediction of depressive episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Richard T; Alloy, Lauren B; Abramson, Lyn Y; Iacoviello, Brian M; Whitehouse, Wayne G

    2009-01-01

    Most research to date on the role of maltreatment experiences in depression has focused on physical and sexual maltreatment. However, several researchers have theorized that emotional maltreatment may be more strongly linked to depression. Furthermore, prospective studies in this area are lacking. This study addressed these issues by examining whether experiences of current emotional maltreatment predicted the development of new prospective episodes of major (MD) or minor depression (MiD), and the subtype of hopelessness depression (HD) in young adults. It also assessed whether current emotional maltreatment from peers and from authority figures separately predicted the occurrence of depressive episodes. One hundred and sixty-five participants from the Cognitive Vulnerability to Depression Project were followed prospectively for 2.5 years. Current emotional maltreatment and new depressive episodes were assessed with life event and diagnostic interviews administered every 6 weeks. Greater overall emotional maltreatment predicted shorter time to onset of new MD, MiD, and HD episodes. Peer- and authority-perpetrated emotional maltreatment separately predicted shorter time to development of new HD episodes. Greater emotional maltreatment in young adults prospectively predicts onset of depression, particularly HD. These findings highlight the importance of adult emotional maltreatment experiences in determining targets for prevention and treatment. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  12. Prediction of Overpressure from Finite Volume Explosions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ramamurthi

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available Tri-nitro toluene (TNT equivalence is not a good criterion for evaluating the practically encounted nonideal blast waves during ignition and in explosion-safety problems. A theoretical model which shows the trends related to the effects of source volume and energy time release on blast wave strength is discussed. A slower energy release and a larger source volume are shown to be necessary to reduce the blast effects.

  13. Dream to predict? REM dreaming as prospective coding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sue eLlewellyn

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dream as prediction seems inherently improbable. The bizarre occurrences in dreams never characterize everyday life. Dreams do not come true! But assuming that bizarreness negates expectations may rest on a misunderstanding of how the predictive brain works. In evolutionary terms, the ability to rapidly predict what sensory input implies- through expectations derived from discerning patterns in associated past experiences- would have enhanced fitness and survival. For example, food and water are essential for survival, associating past experiences (to identify location patterns predicts where they can be found. Similarly, prediction may enable predator identification from what would have been only a fleeting and ambiguous stimulus- without prior expectations. To confront the many challenges associated with natural settings, visual perception is vital for humans (and most mammals and often responses must be rapid. Predictive coding during wake may, therefore, be based on unconscious imagery so that visual perception is maintained and appropriate motor actions triggered quickly. Speed may also dictate the form of the imagery. Bizarreness, during REM dreaming, may result from a prospective code fusing phenomena with the same meaning- within a particular context. For example, if the context is possible predation, from the perspective of the prey two different predators can both mean the same (i.e. immediate danger and require the same response (e.g. flight. Prospective coding may also prune redundancy from memories, to focus the image on the contextually-relevant elements only, thus, rendering the non-relevant phenomena indeterminate- another aspect of bizarreness. In sum, this paper offers an evolutionary take on REM dreaming as a form of prospective coding which identifies a probabilistic pattern in past events. This pattern is portrayed in an unconscious, associative, sensorimotor image which may support cognition in wake through being

  14. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  15. Hippocampal volume and sensitivity to maternal aggressive behavior: a prospective study of adolescent depressive symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittle, Sarah; Yap, Marie B H; Sheeber, Lisa; Dudgeon, Paul; Yücel, Murat; Pantelis, Christos; Simmons, Julian G; Allen, Nicholas B

    2011-02-01

    It has been suggested that biological factors confer increased sensitivity to environmental influences on depressive symptoms during adolescence, a crucial time for the onset of depressive disorders. Given the critical role of the hippocampus in sensitivity to stress and processing of contextual aspects of the environment, investigation of its role in determining sensitivity to environmental context seems warranted. This study prospectively examined hippocampal volume as a measure of sensitivity to the influence of aggressive maternal behavior on change in depressive symptoms from early to midadolescence. The interaction between aggressive maternal behavior and hippocampal volume was found to predict change in depressive symptoms. Significant sex differences also emerged, whereby only for girls were larger bilateral hippocampal volumes more sensitive to the effects of maternal aggressive behavior, particularly with respect to experiencing the protective effects of low levels of maternal aggressiveness. These findings help elucidate the complex relationships between brain structure, environmental factors such as maternal parenting style, and sensitivity to (i.e., risk for, and protection from) the emergence of depression during this life stage. Given that family context risk factors are modifiable, our findings suggest the potential utility of targeted parenting interventions for the prevention and treatment of adolescent depressive disorder.

  16. Determination of turnover and cushion gas volume of a prospected gas storage reservoir under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubik, A. [RAG-AG Wien (Austria); Baffoe, J.; Schulze-Riegert, R. [SPT Group GmbH, Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-08-01

    Gas storages define a key contribution for building a reliable gas supply chain from production to consumers. In a competitive gas market with short reaction times to seasonal and other gas injection and extraction requirements, gas storages also receive a strong focus on availability and precise prediction estimates for future operation scenarios. Reservoir management workflows are increasingly built on reservoir simulation support for optimizing production schemes and estimating the impact of subsurface uncertainties on field development scenarios. Simulation models for gas storages are calibrated to geological data and accurate reproduction of historical production data are defined as a prerequisite for reliable production and performance forecasts. The underlying model validation process is called history matching, which potentially generates alternative simulation models due to prevailing geological uncertainties. In the past, a single basecase reference model was used to predict production capacities of a gas storage. The working gas volume was precisely defined over a contracted plateau delivery and the required cushion gas volume maintains the reservoir pressure during the operation. Cushion and working gas Volume are strongly dependent on reservoir parameters. In this work an existing depleted gas reservoir and the operation target as a gas storage is described. Key input data to the reservoir model description and simulation is reviewed including production history and geological uncertainties based on large well spacing, limited core and well data and a limited seismic resolution. Target delivery scenarios of the prospected gas storage are evaluated under uncertainty. As one key objective, optimal working gas and cushion gas volumes are described in a probabilistic context reflecting geological uncertainties. Several work steps are defined and included in an integrated workflow design. Equiprobable geological models are generated and evaluated based on

  17. Features and prospects of juridical predicting of entrepreneurial activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya V. Rubtsova

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to identify characteristics and prospects of predicting the business activity. Methods historical sociological logical systematicstructural formallegal comparativelegal legal modeling method. Results in article suggests the legal definition of prediction of business activity as a scientific and practical study aimed at the determination of the future state and prospects of development of business activity consisting of the evaluation of legal regulation and analysis of the prospectsof further socioeconomic development which aims to select the optimal solution for the further development of entrepreneurship through legal regulators. The work proves the necessity of achieving a balanced legal regulation of social relations by changing the legislation in the field of business agreements investment and innovation. Scientific novelty the article for the first time formulates the concept characteristics and features of legal prediction of business activity substantiates the impact of predicting on the development of legal regulation of social relations. Practical significance the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in research and teaching while considering the issues of predicting both the socioeconomic processes in general and business activity in particular.

  18. Neural network predicts carrot volume with only three images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Federico; Sanchez, Sergio

    1998-09-01

    A mechanism turned a vision camera around a fixed carrot taking 100 images of it. A 3D reconstruction finite element algorithm reproduced the volume using finite area triangles and morphological operations to optimize memory utilization. Volume from several carrots were calculated and correlated against real volume achieving a 98% success rate. Three images 120 degrees apart were acquired and the main features extracted. A neural network system was trained using the features, increasing the measuring speed and obtaining together with a regression algorithm an accuracy of 95% in predicting the real volume.

  19. Predictions of urban volumes in single time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thomas, Tom; Weijermars, Wendy; Berkum, van Eric

    2010-01-01

    Congestion is increasing in many urban areas. This has led to a growing awareness of the importance of accurate traffic-flow predictions. In this paper, we introduce a prediction scheme that is based on an extensive study of volume patterns that were collected at about 20 urban intersections in the

  20. Sound transmission through ducts and aircraft noise prediction, volume 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauer, J. J.; Datko, J. T.; Guyton, R. W.

    1982-01-01

    Aircraft engine acoustical lining impedance models, ray acoustics, hydrodynamic modes, and transient analysis of sound propagation in variable area duct studies were applied to aircraft noise prediction. The effects of several duct lining configurations in a TF33 P5 and a CFM56 engined KC-135B aircraft were predicted. The prediction was based on a model corrected to fit flight noise data and modified by including theoretical duct noise attenuation predictions. The transient solution of variable area ducts permitted the prediction of sound propgation in bullet nose inlets for no low and was moderately successful when a potential flow was included with low Mach numbers. Volume 1 contains the technical report and analysis. Volume 2 contains the user's manuals and listings of the computer codes developed.

  1. Larger Lateral Prefrontal Cortex Volume Predicts Better Exercise Adherence Among Older Women: Evidence From Two Exercise Training Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Best, John R; Chiu, Bryan K; Hall, Peter A; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

    2017-06-01

    Recent research has suggested an important role of lateral prefrontal cortex (lPFC) in consistent implementation of positive health behaviors and avoidance of negative health behaviors. We examined whether gray matter volume in the lPFC prospectively predicts exercise class attendance among older women (n = 122) who underwent either a 52-week or 26-week exercise training intervention. Structural magnetic resonance imaging determined gray matter volume at baseline. Independent of intracranial volume, age, education, body composition, mobility, depressive symptoms, and general cognitive functioning, larger lPFC volume predicted greater exercise class attendance (all p values exercise adherence as well as identified other regions, especially in the insula and temporal cortex, that predicted exercise adherence. These findings suggest that sustained engagement in exercise training might rely in part on functions of the lPFC and that lPFC volume might be a reasonable proxy for such functions.

  2. Prospective prediction of functional difficulties among recently separated Veterans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald E. Larson, PhD

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Reports of functional problems are common among Veterans who served post-9/11 (more than 25% report functional difficulties in at least one domain. However, little prospective work has examined the risk and protective factors for functional difficulties among Veterans. In a sample of recently separated Marines, we used stepwise logistic and multiple regressions to identify predictors of functional impairment, including work-related problems, financial problems, unlawful behavior, activity limitations due to mental health symptoms, and perceived difficulty reintegrating into civilian life. Posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms assessed both before and after military separation significantly predicted functional difficulties across all domains except unlawful behavior. Certain outcomes, such as unlawful behavior and activity limitations due to mental health symptoms, were predicted by other or additional predictors. Although several forms of functioning were examined, the list was not exhaustive. The results highlight a number of areas where targeted interventions may facilitate the reintegration of military servicemembers into civilian life.

  3. Can semiology predict psychogenic nonepileptic seizures? A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed, Tanvir U; LaFrance, W Curt; Kahriman, Emine S; Hasan, Saba N; Rajasekaran, Vijayalakshmi; Gulati, Deepak; Borad, Samip; Shahid, Asim; Fernandez-Baca, Guadalupe; Garcia, Naiara; Pawlowski, Matthias; Loddenkemper, Tobias; Amina, Shahram; Koubeissi, Mohamad Z

    2011-06-01

    Reducing health and economic burdens from diagnostic delay of psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNES) requires prompt referral for video electroencephalography (VEEG) monitoring, the diagnostic gold standard. Practitioners make VEEG referrals when semiology suggests PNES, although few semiological signs are supported by well-designed studies, and most VEEG studies neglect to concurrently measure how accurately seizure witnesses can ascertain semiology. In this study, we estimate the value of eyewitness-reported and video-documented semiology for predicting PNES, and we measure accuracy of eyewitness reports. We prospectively interviewed eyewitnesses of seizures in patients referred for VEEG monitoring, to inquire about 48 putative PNES and ES signs. Multiple, EEG-blinded, epileptologists independently evaluated seizure videos and documented the presence/absence of signs. We used generalized estimating equations to identify reliable video-documented PNES and ES signs, and we compared eyewitness reports with video findings to assess how accurately signs are reported. We used logistic regression to determine whether eyewitness reports could predict VEEG-ascertained seizure type. We analyzed 120 seizures (36 PNES, 84 ES) from 35 consecutive subjects. Of 45 video-documented signs, only 3 PNES signs ("preserved awareness," "eye flutter," and "bystanders can intensify or alleviate") and 3 ES signs ("abrupt onset," "eye-opening/widening," and postictal "confusion/sleep") were significant and reliable indicators of seizure type. Eyewitness reports of these 6 signs were inaccurate and not statistically different from guessing. Consequentially, eyewitness reports of signs did not predict VEEG-ascertained diagnosis. We validated our findings in a second, prospective cohort of 36 consecutive subjects. We identified 6 semiological signs that reliably distinguish PNES and ES, and found that eyewitness reports of these signs are unreliable. We offer suggestions to improve the

  4. Operational climate prediction in the era of big data in China: Reviews and prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xin; Song, Lianchun; Wang, Guofu; Ren, Hongli; Wu, Tongwen; Jia, Xiaolong; Wu, Huanping; Wu, Jie

    2016-06-01

    Big data has emerged as the next technological revolution in IT industry after cloud computing and the Internet of Things. With the development of climate observing systems, particularly satellite meteorological observation and high-resolution climate models, and the rapid growth in the volume of climate data, climate prediction is now entering the era of big data. The application of big data will provide new ideas and methods for the continuous development of climate prediction. The rapid integration, cloud storage, cloud computing, and full-sample analysis of massive climate data makes it possible to understand climate states and their evolution more objectively, thus predicting the future climate more accurately. This paper describes the application status of big data in operational climate prediction in China; it analyzes the key big data technologies, discusses the future development of climate prediction operations from the perspective of big data, speculates on the prospects for applying climatic big data in cloud computing and data assimilation, and puts forward the notion of big data-based super-ensemble climate prediction methods and computerbased deep learning climate prediction methods.

  5. Impact of Trading Volume on Prediction of Stock Market Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolf Plachý

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the influence of trading volume on quality of prediction of stock market development. The main objective of this article is to assess the influence of stock trading volume level on quality of prediction with use of technical analysis. The research was applied on stocks included in the S & P 500 index. Based on average daily trading volume, three aggregate indexes were constructed. The dynamics of index return volatility was modeled by GARCH-class models. GARCH(1,1, GJR and EGARCH models were estimated for each time series. The in-sample evidence indicated that the return volatility of the indexes can be characterized by significant persistence and asymmetric effects. The best estimate of each model was produced for the index of stocks with the highest average trading volume.However the result could differ based on the observed period, the volatility structure of the examined data supports the idea that influential investors respond to various shocks in the market primarily by closing or opening their largest position.The importance of the level of trading volume for the prediction of financial time series development was shown in the paper. This finding could help generate such volatility structure of time series which would allow to explain development of the time series by various models with better results.

  6. Fluid responsiveness predicted by transcutaneous partial pressure of oxygen in patients with circulatory failure: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jingyuan; Peng, Xiao; Pan, Chun; Cai, Shixia; Zhang, Xiwen; Xue, Ming; Yang, Yi; Qiu, Haibo

    2017-12-01

    Significant effort has been devoted to defining parameters for predicting fluid responsiveness. Our goal was to study the feasibility of predicting fluid responsiveness by transcutaneous partial pressure of oxygen (PtcO2) in the critically ill patients. This was a single-center prospective study conducted in the intensive care unit of a tertiary care teaching hospital. Shock patients who presented with at least one clinical sign of inadequate tissue perfusion, defined as systolic blood pressure 40 mmHg in previously hypertensive patients or the need for vasopressive drugs; urine output 4 mmol/l, for less than 24 h in the absence of a contraindication for fluids were eligible to participate in the study. PtcO2 was continuously recorded before and during a passive leg raising (PLR) test, and then before and after a 250 ml rapid saline infusion in 10 min. Fluid responsiveness is defined as a change in the stroke volume ≥10% after 250 ml of volume infusion. Thirty-four patients were included, and 14 responded to volume expansion. In the responders, the mean arterial pressure, central venous pressure, cardiac output, stroke volume and PtcO2 increased significantly, while the heart rate decreased significantly by both PLR and volume expansion. Changes in the stroke volume induced either by PLR or volume expansion were significantly greater in responders than in non-responders. The correlation between the changes in PtcO2 and stroke volume induced by volume expansion was significant. Volume expansion induced an increase in the PtcO2 of 14% and PLR induced an increase in PtcO2 of 13% predicted fluid responsiveness. This study suggested the changes in PtcO2 induced by volume expansion and a PLR test predicted fluid responsiveness in critically ill patients. Trial registration NCT02083757.

  7. Computational Methods for Protein Structure Prediction and Modeling Volume 2: Structure Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Ying; Liang, Jie

    2007-01-01

    Volume 2 of this two-volume sequence focuses on protein structure prediction and includes protein threading, De novo methods, applications to membrane proteins and protein complexes, structure-based drug design, as well as structure prediction as a systems problem. A series of appendices review the biological and chemical basics related to protein structure, computer science for structural informatics, and prerequisite mathematics and statistics.

  8. PLANNING AND PREDICTING AS SYSTEM ELEMENTS OF GROUNDING THE PROSPECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OF EDUCATIONAL ESTABLISHMENTS

    OpenAIRE

    Kurakov, A.

    2011-01-01

    The article presents the theoretical approach to grounding the results of prospective development of professional educational establishments by interaction between planning and predicting in the management system.

  9. Disorganized Attachment in Infancy Predicts Greater Amygdala Volume in Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons-Ruth, K.; Pechtel, P.; Yoon, S.A.; Anderson, C.M.; Teicher, M.H.

    2016-01-01

    Early life stress in rodents is associated with increased amygdala volume in adulthood. In humans, the amygdala develops rapidly during the first two years of life. Thus, disturbed care during this period may be particularly important to amygdala development. In the context of a 30-year longitudinal study of impoverished, highly stressed families, we assessed whether disorganization of the attachment relationship in infancy was related to amygdala volume in adulthood. Amygdala volumes were assessed among 18 low-income young adults (8M/10F, 29.33±0.49 years) first observed in infancy (8.5±5.6 months) and followed longitudinally to age 29. In infancy (18.58±1.02 mos), both disorganized infant attachment behavior and disrupted maternal communication were assessed in the standard Strange Situation Procedure (SSP). Increased left amygdala volume in adulthood was associated with both maternal and infant components of disorganized attachment interactions at 18 months of age (overall r = .679, p < .004). Later stressors, including childhood maltreatment and attachment disturbance in adolescence, were not significantly related to left amygdala volume. Left amygdala volume was further associated with dissociation and limbic irritability in adulthood. Finally, left amygdala volume mediated the prediction from attachment disturbance in infancy to limbic irritability in adulthood. Results point to the likely importance of quality of early care for amygdala development in human children as well as in rodents. The long-term prediction found here suggests that the first two years of life may be an early sensitive period for amygdala development during which clinical intervention could have particularly important consequences for later child outcomes. PMID:27060720

  10. Volumizing effects of a smooth, highly cohesive, viscous 20-mg/mL hyaluronic acid volumizing filler: prospective European study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoffmann Klaus

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Facial volume loss contributes significantly to facial aging. The 20-mg/mL hyaluronic acid (HA formulation used in this study is a smooth, highly cohesive, viscous, fully reversible, volumizing filler indicated to restore facial volume. This first prospective study evaluated use in current aesthetic clinical practice. Methods A pan-European evaluation conducted under guidelines of the World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research, the trial comprised a baseline visit (visit 1 and a follow-up (visit 2 at 14 ± 7 days posttreatment. Physicians photographed patients at each visit. Each patient was treated with the 20-mg/mL HA volumizing filler as supplied in standard packaging. Procedural details, aesthetic outcomes, safety, and physician and patient ratings of their experience were recorded. Results Fifteen physicians and 70 patients (91% female; mean age: 50 years participated. Mean volume loss at baseline was 3.7 (moderate on the Facial Volume Loss Scale. Local anesthesia was used in 64.3% of cases. Most injections (85% were administered with needles rather than cannulas. Of the 208 injections, 59% were in the malar region, primarily above the periosteum. Subcutaneous injections were most common for other sites. The mean total injection volume per patient was 4.6 mL. The mean volume loss score declined significantly (P Conclusion The 20-mg/mL smooth, highly cohesive, viscous, volumizing HA filler was effective, well tolerated, and easy to use in current clinical practice. Participants were very likely to recommend this product to colleagues and friends, and patients would be very or quite likely to request this product for future treatments.

  11. Noninvasively derived stroke volume variation by finger volume clamping can reliably predict fluid responsiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Jaap Jan; Poterman, Marieke; Struys, Michel; Scheeren, Thomas; Kalmar, A.F.

    2013-01-01

    Background and Goal of Study:  Dynamic preload variables derived from the arterial pressure waveform have been shown to accurately predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. One of these variables, stroke volume variation (SVV), can also be obtained noninvasively by the finger

  12. Regional hippocampal volumes and development predict learning and memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamnes, Christian K; Walhovd, Kristine B; Engvig, Andreas; Grydeland, Håkon; Krogsrud, Stine K; Østby, Ylva; Holland, Dominic; Dale, Anders M; Fjell, Anders M

    2014-01-01

    The hippocampus is an anatomically and functionally heterogeneous structure, but longitudinal studies of its regional development are scarce and it is not known whether protracted maturation of the hippocampus in adolescence is related to memory development. First, we investigated hippocampal subfield development using 170 longitudinally acquired brain magnetic resonance imaging scans from 85 participants aged 8-21 years. Hippocampal subfield volumes were estimated by the use of automated segmentation of 7 subfields, including the cornu ammonis (CA) sectors and the dentate gyrus (DG), while longitudinal subfield volumetric change was quantified using a nonlinear registration procedure. Second, associations between subfield volumes and change and verbal learning/memory across multiple retention intervals (5 min, 30 min and 1 week) were tested. It was hypothesized that short and intermediate memory would be more closely related to CA2-3/CA4-DG and extended, remote memory to CA1. Change rates were significantly different across hippocampal subfields, but nearly all subfields showed significant volume decreases over time throughout adolescence. Several subfield volumes were larger in the right hemisphere and in males, while for change rates there were no hemisphere or sex differences. Partly in support of the hypotheses, greater volume of CA1 and CA2-3 was related to recall and retention after an extended delay, while longitudinal reduction of CA2-3 and CA4-DG was related to learning. This suggests continued regional development of the hippocampus across adolescence and that volume and volume change in specific subfields differentially predict verbal learning and memory over different retention intervals, but future high-resolution studies are called for.

  13. Sonographic Parameters for Prediction of Miscarriage: Role of 3-Dimensional Volume Measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wie, Jeong Ha; Choe, Suyearn; Kim, Sa Jin; Shin, Jong Chul; Kwon, Ji Young; Park, In Yang

    2015-10-01

    To evaluate the value of volume measurement using 3-dimensional sonography for prediction of miscarriage. We prospectively enrolled 188 singleton pregnant women at 5 to 9 weeks' gestation. The 3-dimensional sonographic gestational sac volume and yolk sac volume were measured together with the fetal heart rate, gestational sac diameter, and yolk sac diameter. For each sonographic parameter, nomograms were created; z scores were calculated for each measurement, and the values were compared between miscarriage and ongoing pregnancy groups. Sonographic parameters for prediction of miscarriage were evaluated by multivariate analysis, and the screening performance was assessed by a receiver operating characteristic curve. Among the 188 pregnancies, 30 (16.0%) had miscarriage. Multivariate analysis showed that fetal heart rate below the 5th percentile (odds ratio, 6.43), gestational sac diameter below the 5th percentile (odds ratio, 4.87), gestational sac volume below the 5th percentile (odds ratio, 5.25), and yolk sac diameter below the 2.5th or above the 97.5th percentile (odds ratio, 15.86) were significant predictors of miscarriage (P = .018; P = .018; P = .033; and P < .001, respectively). At a false-positive rate of 30%, the detection rate for miscarriage in screening by a combination of fetal heart rate, gestational sac diameter, gestational sac volume, and yolk sac diameter was 77.8%. A small-for-gestational-age gestational sac volume is a significant sonographic predictor of miscarriage, as are fetal bradycardia, a small gestational sac diameter, and a small or large yolk sac diameter. © 2015 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

  14. Improvements in lake volume predictions using Landsat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gervin, J. C.; Shih, S. F.

    1981-01-01

    A cumulative error in the water balance budget for Lake Okeechobee produces a one million acre-foot discrepancy in the predicted water volume over a 4-year period. The major source of error appears to be complex shoreline marshes that comprise 20 percent of the lake surface. The water balance budget model presently treats these marshes as open water. Using Landsat data, the vegetation in the lake's littoral zone was classified multispectrally to provide a data base for determining water budget information. First, the acreage of a given plant species in the littoral zone was obtained with satellite data. Second, the surface area occupied by plants (which therefore could not be considered open water) was used to adjust the vegetation acreage giving an effective water surface. Based on this information, more detailed representations of evapotranspiration and total water surface (and hence total lake volume) could be provided to the water balance budget computation.

  15. Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altgassen, Mareike; Vetter, Nora C; Phillips, Louise H; Akgün, Canan; Kliegel, Matthias

    2014-11-01

    Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether theory of mind and executive control processes (specifically updating, switching, and inhibition) predict prospective memory development across adolescence. In total, 42 adolescents and 41 young adults participated in this study. Young adults outperformed adolescents on tasks of prospective memory, theory of mind, and executive functions. Switching and theory of mind predicted prospective memory performance in adolescents.

  16. A prospective study of OAR volume variations between two different treatment planning systems in radiotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhudevi Soubhagya Kulkarni

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: It has been seen that there is a clinically significant variation in the volume calculated across different planning systems for the same digital imaging and communication (DICOM contours.The purpose of this study is to investigate the difference in volumes of organs at risk when the structure sets were exported from the Eclipse ((Palo Alto, USA Version 10.0 to XIO CMS (Electa, Crawley, UK Version 4.40.00 treatment planning system (TPS and identify how the differences occur. Methods: We prospectively analyzed the volumes of organs at risk from computerized tomography (CT data of 54 patients. Head and neck and brain tumors were taken for this study and contoured on Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS after importing images from CT. These contoured images were then exported using radiotherapy DICOM transfer facility to XIO CMS planning system and compared the contoured volumes with Eclipse TPS structured volumes. Results: Our analysis showed that the differences in calculated volumes of the contours for the patients between the two planning systems can be large. Mixed results are shown for different organs with the absolute volume difference ranging from -0.25 cc to 319.73 cc. These results clearly shown that the two TPS interprets the contours differently when calculating the volume, and there is a closer match with the theoretical calculated volumes with XIO CMS calculated volumes. Conclusion: Observed discrepancies were consistent between the two planning systems. This impact of contouring variability could play a role on plan quality metrics which is used as criteria for clinical trial protocol compliance.

  17. Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying Prospective Memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgia eCona

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Prospective memory (PM represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signalled by a warning cue for some participants and was completely unpredictable for others. In the predictable cue condition, the behavioural and ERP correlates of strategic monitoring were observed mainly in the ongoing trials wherein the PM cue was expected. In the unpredictable cue condition they were instead shown throughout the whole PM block. This pattern of results suggests that, in the predictable cue condition, participants engaged monitoring only when subjected to a context wherein the PM cue was expected, and disengaged monitoring when the PM cue was not expected. Conversely, participants in the unpredictable cue condition distributed their resources for strategic monitoring in more continuous manner. The findings of this study support the most recent views – the ‘Dynamic Multiprocess Framework’ and the ‘Attention to Delayed Intention’ (AtoDI model – confirming that strategic monitoring is a flexible mechanism that is recruited mainly when a PM cue is expected and that may interact with bottom-up spontaneous processes.

  18. Predicting Success among Prospective Disadvantaged Students in Natural Scientific Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maree, J. G.; Fletcher, L.; Sommerville, J.

    2011-01-01

    One hundred and fifty-nine Grade 11 prospective disadvantaged students in the natural sciences at the University of Pretoria completed the Study Orientation Questionnaire in Mathematics and the Senior Aptitude Test (Advanced). Fifty-nine male students (M age = 16.05; SD = 0.57) and 100 females (M age = 16.02; SD = 0.512) scored significantly…

  19. Predictive mapping of prospectivity for orogenic gold in Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herbert, Stephanie; Woldai, T.; Carranza, E.J.M; van Ruitenbeek, F.J.A.

    2014-01-01

    Integration of enhanced regional geo-datasets has facilitated new geological interpretation and modelling of prospectivity for orogenic gold in southwestern Uganda. The geo-datasets include historical geological maps, geological field data, digital terrain models, Landsat TM data and airborne geophy

  20. Advancement and prospect of short-term numerical climate prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The defects of present methods of short-term numerical climate prediction are discussed in this paper, and four challenging problems are put forward. Considering our under developed computer conditions, we should innovate in the approcuch of numerical climate prediction on the basis of our own achievements and experiences in the field of short-term numerical climate prediction. It is possibly an effective way to settle the present defects of short-term numerical climate prediction.``

  1. Prospects of the search for neutrino bursts from Supernovae with Baksan Large Volume Scintillation Detector

    CERN Document Server

    Petkov, V B

    2015-01-01

    Observing a high-statistics neutrino signal from the supernova explosions in the Galaxy is a major goal of low-energy neutrino astronomy. The prospects for detecting all flavors of neutrinos and antineutrinos from the core-collapse supernova (ccSN) in operating and forthcoming large liquid scintillation detectors (LLSD) are widely discussed now. One of proposed LLSD is Baksan Large Volume Scintillation Detector (BLVSD). This detector will be installed at the Baksan Neutrino Observatory (BNO) of the Institute for Nuclear Research, Russian Academy of Sciences, at a depth of 4800 m.w.e. Low-energy neutrino astronomy is one of the main lines of research of the BLVSD.

  2. The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

    2009-12-01

    Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

  3. Effect of Thyroid Remnant Volume on the Risk of Hypothyroidism After Hemithyroidectomy: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Brian Hung-Hin; Wong, Carlos K H; Wong, Kai Pun; Chu, Kelvin Ka-Wan; Shek, Tony W H

    2017-06-01

    Hypothyroidism is a common sequel after a hemithyroidectomy. Although various risk factors leading to hypothyroidism have been reported, the effect of the contralateral lobe's volume has been understudied. This study aimed to examine the association between the preoperative contralateral lobe's volume and the risk of postoperative hypothyroidism. During a 2-year period, 150 eligible patients undergoing a hemithyroidectomy were evaluated. The volume of the contralateral nonexcised lobe was estimated preoperatively by independent assessors on ultrasonography using the following formula: width (in cm) × depth (in cm) × length (in cm) × (π/6), adjusted for the body surface area (BSA). Postoperative hypothyroidism was defined as serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) exceeding 4.78 mIU/L. Any significant characteristics in the univariate analysis were entered into the multivariate analysis to determine independent factors. After a mean follow-up period of 53.5 ± 9.4 months, 44 patients (29.3 %) experienced postoperative hypothyroidism, and 10 of these patients required thyroxine replacement. Hypothyroidism was associated with a higher preoperative TSH level (p < 0.001), a smaller BSA-adjusted volume (p < 0.001), fewer ipsilateral nodules (p = 0.037), and the presence of thyroiditis (p = 0.050). After adjustment for thyroiditis, preoperative TSH (p < 0.001), number of ipsilateral nodules (p = 0.048), and BSA-adjusted volume (p < 0.001) were independent factors for hypothyroidism. Patients with a BSA-adjusted volume smaller than 3.2 ml had a threefold greater hypothyroidism risk than those with a BSA-adjusted volume of 3.2 ml or more (p < 0.001). A significant inverse association between the preoperative contralateral lobe's volume and hypothyroidism risk was observed after hemithyroidectomy. Together with a higher preoperative TSH level and fewer ipsilateral nodules, a smaller BSA-adjusted volume measured by preoperative ultrasonography independently predicted

  4. Applying dynamic parameters to predict hemodynamic response to volume expansion in spontaneously breathing patients with septic shock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanspa, Michael J; Grissom, Colin K; Hirshberg, Eliotte L; Jones, Jason P; Brown, Samuel M

    2013-02-01

    Volume expansion is a mainstay of therapy in septic shock, although its effect is difficult to predict using conventional measurements. Dynamic parameters, which vary with respiratory changes, appear to predict hemodynamic response to fluid challenge in mechanically ventilated, paralyzed patients. Whether they predict response in patients who are free from mechanical ventilation is unknown. We hypothesized that dynamic parameters would be predictive in patients not receiving mechanical ventilation. This is a prospective, observational, pilot study. Patients with early septic shock and who were not receiving mechanical ventilation received 10-mL/kg volume expansion (VE) at their treating physician's discretion after initial resuscitation in the emergency department. We used transthoracic echocardiography to measure vena cava collapsibility index and aortic velocity variation before VE. We used a pulse contour analysis device to measure stroke volume variation (SVV). Cardiac index was measured immediately before and after VE using transthoracic echocardiography. Hemodynamic response was defined as an increase in cardiac index 15% or greater. Fourteen patients received VE, five of whom demonstrated a hemodynamic response. Vena cava collapsibility index and SVV were predictive (area under the curve = 0.83, 0.92, respectively). Optimal thresholds were calculated: vena cava collapsibility index, 15% or greater (positive predictive value, 62%; negative predictive value, 100%; P = 0.03); SVV, 17% or greater (positive predictive value 100%, negative predictive value 82%, P = 0.03). Aortic velocity variation was not predictive. Vena cava collapsibility index and SVV predict hemodynamic response to fluid challenge patients with septic shock who are not mechanically ventilated. Optimal thresholds differ from those described in mechanically ventilated patients.

  5. Stroke volume variation and pleth variability index to predict fluid responsiveness during resection of primary retroperitoneal tumors in Hans Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Q; Mi, W D; Zhang, H

    2012-02-01

    Respiration variation in arterial pulse pressure (ΔPP) and pulse oximetry plethysmographic waveform amplitude (ΔPOP) are accurate predictors of fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. We hypothesized that stroke volume variation (SVV) and pleth variability index (PVI) can predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients during major surgical procedures in Hans Chinese. This prospective study consisted of fifty-five Hans Chinese patients undergoing resection of primary retroperitoneal tumors (PRPT). During the surgical procedures, hemodynamic data [central venous pressure (CVP), cardiac index (CI), stroke volume index (SVI), SVV, and PVI] were recorded before and after volume expansion (VE) (8 ml•kg-1 of 6% hydroxyethyl starch 130/0.4). Fluid responsiveness was defined as an increase in SVI ≥ 10% after VE. Four patients were excluded from analysis for arrhythmia or obvious hemorrhage during VE. Baseline SVV correlated well with baseline PVI and the changes in SVV was correlated with the changes in PVI (p Chinese.

  6. Thrusts and Prospects on Understanding and Predicting Asian Monsoon Climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Bin

    2008-01-01

    Development of monsoon climate prediction through integrated research efforts to improve our understanding of monsoon variability and predictability is a primary goal of the Asian Monsoon Years (2007-2011) and International Monsoon Study under the leadership of the World Climate Research Programme.The present paper reviews recent progress in Asian monsoon research focusing on (1) understanding and modeling of the monsoon variability, (2) determining the sources and limits of predictability, and (3) assessing the current status of climate prediction, with emphasis on the weekly to interannual time scales. Particular attention is paid to identify scientific issues and thrust areas, as well as potential directions to move forward in an attempt to stimulate future research to advance our understanding of monsoon climate dynamics and improve our capability to forecast Asian monsoon climate variation.

  7. Prediction of Molar Volumes of the Sudanese Reservoir Fluids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Rabah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper provided important experimental PVT data of the Sudanese reservoir fluids. It includes composition analysis of 11 mixtures and about 148 PVT data points of constant mass expansion (CME tests at pressures below the bubble point. The datasets are compared with eight equations of state (EOS, namely, Peng Robinson (PR, Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK, Lawal-Lake-Silberberg (LLS, Adachi-Lu-Sugie (ALS, Schmidt-Wenzel (SW, Patel-Teja (PT, Modified-Nasrifar-Moshfeghian (MNM, and Harmens-Knapp (HK. The results of comparison reveals that, with the exception of PR and ALS EOSs, all other EOSs yield consistently a higher average absolute percent deviation (AAPD in the prediction of molar volume; it exceeds 20% by all mixtures. The grand average AAPD of all mixtures is 17 and 16 for PR and ALS, respectively. ALS is selected to represents the mixtures. It is modified by replacing the coefficient (Ωb1 of the parameter (b1 in the dominator of repulsive term by that of PR. This procedure enhanced the accuracy of ALS by 30 to 90% for individual mixtures and the grand average AAPD is significantly reduced from 16 to about 7.

  8. Dark Radiation predictions from general Large Volume Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Hebecker, Arthur; Rompineve, Fabrizio; Witkowski, Lukas T

    2014-01-01

    Recent observations constrain the amount of Dark Radiation ($\\Delta N_{\\rm eff}$) and may even hint towards a non-zero value of $\\Delta N_{\\rm eff}$. It is by now well-known that this puts stringent constraints on the sequestered Large Volume Scenario (LVS), i.e. on LVS realisations with the Standard Model at a singularity. We go beyond this setting by considering LVS models where SM fields are realised on 7-branes in the geometric regime. As we argue, this naturally goes together with high-scale supersymmetry. The abundance of Dark Radiation is determined by the competition between the decay of the lightest modulus to axions, to the SM Higgs and to gauge fields. The latter decay channel avoids the most stringent constraints of the sequestered setting. Nevertheless, a rather robust prediction for a substantial amount of Dark Radiation can be made. This applies both to cases where the SM 4-cycles are stabilised by D-terms and are small "by accident" as well as to fibred models with the small cycles stabilised ...

  9. Applying dynamic parameters to predict hemodynamic response to volume expansion in spontaneously breathing patients with septic shock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanspa, Michael J.; Grissom, Colin K.; Hirshberg, Eliotte L.; Jones, Jason P.; Brown, Samuel M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Volume expansion is a mainstay of therapy in septic shock, although its effect is difficult to predict using conventional measurements. Dynamic parameters, which vary with respiratory changes, appear to predict hemodynamic response to fluid challenge in mechanically ventilated, paralyzed patients. Whether they predict response in patients who are free from mechanical ventilation is unknown. We hypothesized that dynamic parameters would be predictive in patients not receiving mechanical ventilation. Methods This is a prospective, observational, pilot study. Patients with early septic shock and who were not receiving mechanical ventilation received 10 ml/kg volume expansion (VE) at their treating physician's discretion after initial resuscitation in the emergency department. We used transthoracic echocardiography to measure vena cava collapsibility index (VCCI) and aortic velocity variation (AoVV) prior to VE. We used a pulse contour analysis device to measure stroke volume variation (SVV). Cardiac index was measured immediately before and after VE using transthoracic echocardiography. Hemodynamic response was defined as an increase in cardiac index ≥ 15%. Results 14 patients received VE, 5 of which demonstrated a hemodynamic response. VCCI and SVV were predictive (Area under curve = 0.83, 0.92, respectively). Optimal thresholds were calculated: VCCI ≥ 15% (Positive predictive value, PPV 62%, negative predictive value, NPV 100%, p = 0.03); SVV ≥ 17% (PPV 100%, NPV 82%, p = 0.03). AoVV was not predictive. Conclusions VCCI and SVV predict hemodynamic response to fluid challenge patients with septic shock who are not mechanically ventilated. Optimal thresholds differ from those described in mechanically ventilated patients. PMID:23324885

  10. Falls prediction in elderly people : A 1-year prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swanenburg, Jaap; de Bruin, Eling D.; Uebelhart, Daniel; Mulder, Theo

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to determine whether force plate variables in single- and dual-task situations are able to predict the risk of multiple falls in a community-dwelling elderly population. Two hundred and seventy elderly persons (225 females, 45 males; age, 73 7 years) performed balanc

  11. Assessment of liver volume with spiral computerized tomography scanning: predicting liver volume by age and height

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhu Sharma

    2016-07-01

    Conclusions: Liver volume is a reliable index of liver size and measurement of liver volume with spiral CT is useful method. Spiral CT can be utilized for measurement of liver volume for such purpose. [Int J Res Med Sci 2016; 4(7.000: 3020-3023

  12. Subcortical intelligence: caudate volume predicts IQ in healthy adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grazioplene, Rachael G; G Ryman, Sephira; Gray, Jeremy R; Rustichini, Aldo; Jung, Rex E; DeYoung, Colin G

    2015-04-01

    This study examined the association between size of the caudate nuclei and intelligence. Based on the central role of the caudate in learning, as well as neuroimaging studies linking greater caudate volume to better attentional function, verbal ability, and dopamine receptor availability, we hypothesized the existence of a positive association between intelligence and caudate volume in three large independent samples of healthy adults (total N = 517). Regression of IQ onto bilateral caudate volume controlling for age, sex, and total brain volume indicated a significant positive correlation between caudate volume and intelligence, with a comparable magnitude of effect across each of the three samples. No other subcortical structures were independently associated with IQ, suggesting a specific biological link between caudate morphology and intelligence.

  13. CT angiography and CT perfusion improve prediction of infarct volume in patients with anterior circulation stroke

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seeters, Tom van; Schaaf, Irene C. van der; Dankbaar, Jan Willem; Horsch, Alexander D.; Niesten, Joris M.; Luitse, Merel J.A.; Mali, Willem P.T.M.; Velthuis, Birgitta K. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Biessels, Geert Jan; Kappelle, L.J. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Neurology, Brain Center Rudolf Magnus, Utrecht (Netherlands); Majoie, Charles B.L.M. [Academic Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Vos, Jan Albert [St. Antonius Hospital, Department of Radiology, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Schonewille, Wouter J. [St. Antonius Hospital, Department of Neurology, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Walderveen, Marianne A.A. van [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Leiden (Netherlands); Wermer, Marieke J.H. [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Leiden (Netherlands); Duijm, Lucien E.M. [Catharina Hospital, Department of Radiology, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Keizer, Koos [Catharina Hospital, Department of Neurology, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Bot, Joseph C.J. [VU University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Visser, Marieke C. [VU University Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Lugt, Aad van der [Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Dippel, Diederik W.J. [Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Kesselring, F.O.H.W. [Rijnstate Hospital, Department of Radiology, Arnhem (Netherlands); Hofmeijer, Jeannette [Rijnstate Hospital, Department of Neurology, Arnhem (Netherlands); Lycklama a Nijeholt, Geert J. [Medical Center Haaglanden, Department of Radiology, The Hague (Netherlands); Boiten, Jelis [Medical Center Haaglanden, Department of Neurology, The Hague (Netherlands); Rooij, Willem Jan van [St. Elisabeth Hospital, Department of Radiology, Tilburg (Netherlands); Kort, Paul L.M. de [St. Elisabeth Hospital, Department of Neurology, Tilburg (Netherlands); Roos, Yvo B.W.E.M. [Academic Medical Center, Department of Neurology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Meijer, Frederick J.A. [Radboud University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Pleiter, C.C. [St. Franciscus Hospital, Department of Radiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Graaf, Yolanda van der [University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht (Netherlands); Collaboration: Dutch acute stroke study (DUST) investigators

    2016-04-15

    We investigated whether baseline CT angiography (CTA) and CT perfusion (CTP) in acute ischemic stroke could improve prediction of infarct presence and infarct volume on follow-up imaging. We analyzed 906 patients with suspected anterior circulation stroke from the prospective multicenter Dutch acute stroke study (DUST). All patients underwent baseline non-contrast CT, CTA, and CTP and follow-up non-contrast CT/MRI after 3 days. Multivariable regression models were developed including patient characteristics and non-contrast CT, and subsequently, CTA and CTP measures were added. The increase in area under the curve (AUC) and R{sup 2} was assessed to determine the additional value of CTA and CTP. At follow-up, 612 patients (67.5 %) had a detectable infarct on CT/MRI; median infarct volume was 14.8 mL (interquartile range (IQR) 2.8-69.6). Regarding infarct presence, the AUC of 0.82 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.85) for patient characteristics and non-contrast CT was improved with addition of CTA measures (AUC 0.85 (95 % CI 0.82-0.87); p < 0.001) and was even higher after addition of CTP measures (AUC 0.89 (95 % CI 0.87-0.91); p < 0.001) and combined CTA/CTP measures (AUC 0.89 (95 % CI 0.87-0.91); p < 0.001). For infarct volume, adding combined CTA/CTP measures (R{sup 2} = 0.58) was superior to patient characteristics and non-contrast CT alone (R{sup 2} = 0.44) and to addition of CTA alone (R{sup 2} = 0.55) or CTP alone (R{sup 2} = 0.54; all p < 0.001). In the acute stage, CTA and CTP have additional value over patient characteristics and non-contrast CT for predicting infarct presence and infarct volume on follow-up imaging. These findings could be applied for patient selection in future trials on ischemic stroke treatment. (orig.)

  14. Multidisciplinary collaborative gross tumour volume definition for lung cancer radiotherapy: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingdale, Abigail E; Roques, Tom W; Curtin, John; Martin, W M Craig; Horan, Gail; Barrett, Ann

    2011-12-07

    Variability in gross tumour volume (GTV) definition is a major source of systematic error in conformal radiotherapy. This prospective study assesses the role of multidisciplinary collaboration between oncologists and radiologists in defining lung cancer volumes. Twenty patients with non-small cell lung cancer due to receive three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy formed the study population. GTVs were defined by a radiologist (GTVrad) and an oncologist (GTVonc) using available clinical information and imaging. A collaborative meeting was then held to agree on a final, common GTV (GTVfin) to be used for treatment planning, and differences analysed. The collaboration changed the GTV in 19/20 patients with a total of 50 regions being edited. Changes made were categorized as (a) differentiation of tumour from atelectasis or ground glass shadowing, (b) separation of tumour from vasculature, and (c) defining mediastinal extent of tumour. Oncologists were more confident in the GTVfin than the GTVonc. The radiologist took longer to define the GTV than the oncologist. Real-time collaborative GTV definition by a radiologist and oncologist is practical and feasible. This approach allows specific areas of uncertainty to be categorized and focussed on, reducing systematic error in GTV definition. The physician's approach to risk and decision making for each patient may also play a role.

  15. In-treatment stroke volume predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lønnebakken, Mai T; Gerdts, Eva; Boman, Kurt

    2011-01-01

    To evaluate whether lower stroke volume during antihypertensive treatment is a predictor of cardiovascular events independent of left ventricular geometric pattern. Methods: The association between left ventricular stroke volume and combined cardiovascular death, stroke and myocardial infarction......, the prespecified primary study endpoint, was assessed in Cox regression analysis using data from baseline and annual follow-up visits in 855 patients during 4.8 years of randomized losartan-based or atenolol-based treatment in the Losartan Intervention For Endpoint reduction in hypertension (LIFE) echocardiography...... resistance, more concentric left ventricular geometry and impaired diastolic relaxation (all P treatment left ventricular stroke volume indexed for height2.04 was associated...

  16. Source-Specific Oppositional Defiant Disorder among Inner-City Children: Prospective Prediction and Moderation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabick, Deborah A. G.; Bubier, Jennifer; Chen, Diane; Price, Julia; Lanza, H. Isabella

    2011-01-01

    We examined prospective prediction from parent- and teacher-reported oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) symptoms to parent-reported ODD, conduct disorder (CD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and generalized anxiety disorder symptoms and whether child executive functioning abilities moderated these relations among an urban, low-income sample of…

  17. Predicting Dyslexia in a Transparent Orthography from Grade 1 Literacy Skills: A Prospective Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pinto, Giuliana; Accorti Gamannossi, Beatrice

    2016-01-01

    We conducted this prospective cohort study to explore the predictability of dyslexia from 1st-grade literacy skills in Italian students. We followed 407 Italian students in primary school from the 1st through the 3rd grades. Students were diagnosed with dyslexia in the 3rd grade. We retrospectively tested participants' 1st-grade performance in…

  18. Predicting mobility outcome one year after stroke: a prospective cohort study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Port, I.G. van de; Kwakkel, G.; Schepers, V.P.; Lindeman, E.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop a prognostic model to predict mobility outcome one year post-stroke. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study in patients with a first-ever stroke admitted for inpatient rehabilitation. PATIENTS: A total of 217 patients with stroke (mean age 58 years) following inpatient rehabilitation

  19. Prediction of Participation and Sensory Modulation of Late Preterm Infants at 12 Months: A Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, O.; Shayevits, S.; Gabis, L. V.; Morag, I.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the study was to prospectively assess the differences in participation and sensory modulation between late preterm infants (LPI) and term babies, and to predict it by LPI characteristics. The study population includes 124 late preterm infants at gestational age between 34 and 35 6/7 weeks who were born at the same medical center. The…

  20. Predicting Dyslexia in a Transparent Orthography from Grade 1 Literacy Skills: A Prospective Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pinto, Giuliana; Accorti Gamannossi, Beatrice

    2016-01-01

    We conducted this prospective cohort study to explore the predictability of dyslexia from 1st-grade literacy skills in Italian students. We followed 407 Italian students in primary school from the 1st through the 3rd grades. Students were diagnosed with dyslexia in the 3rd grade. We retrospectively tested participants' 1st-grade performance in…

  1. Prevalence and prediction of re-experiencing and avoidance after elective surgical abortion: A prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, A.A.P.; Kamphuis, J.H.; Emmelkamp, P.M.G.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: This study investigated short-term re-experiencing and avoidance after elective surgical abortion. In addition, it was prospectively investigated whether peritraumatic dissociation and pre-abortion dissociative tendencies and alexithymia predict re-experiencing and avoidance. Method: In a

  2. Predicting mobility outcome one year after stroke: a prospective cohort study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Port, I.G. van de; Kwakkel, G.; Schepers, V.P.; Lindeman, E.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop a prognostic model to predict mobility outcome one year post-stroke. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study in patients with a first-ever stroke admitted for inpatient rehabilitation. PATIENTS: A total of 217 patients with stroke (mean age 58 years) following inpatient rehabilitation

  3. Predictive factors for bleeding-related re-exploration after cardiac surgery: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Camila T; Brunori, Evelise H Fadini Reis; Santos, Vinicius Batista; Moorhead, Sue A; Lopes, Juliana de Lima; de Barros, Alba L Bottura Leite

    2016-04-01

    Bleeding-related re-exploration is a life-threatening complication after cardiac surgery. Nurses must be aware of important risk factors for this complication so that their assessment, monitoring and evaluation activities can be prioritized, focused and anticipated. To identify the predictive factors for bleeding-related re-exploration after cardiac surgery and to describe the sources of postoperative bleeding. This is a prospective cohort study at a tertiary cardiac school-hospital in São Paulo/SP, Brazil. Adult patients (n=323) submitted to surgical correction of acquired cardiac diseases were included. Potential risk factors for bleeding-related re-exploration within the 24 hours following admission to the intensive care unit were investigated in the patients' charts. A univariate analysis and a multiple analysis through logistic regression were conducted to identify the outcome predictors. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was calculated as a measure of accuracy considering the cut-off points with the highest sensitivity and specificity. The univariate factors significantly associated with bleeding-related re-exploration were a lower preoperative platelet count, a lower number of bypasses in coronary artery bypass surgery and postoperatively, a lower body temperature, infusion of lower intravenous volume, a higher positive end-expiratory pressure during mechanical ventilation and transfusion of blood products. The independent predictors of bleeding-related re-exploration included postoperative red blood cell transfusion, and transfusion of fresh frozen plasma, platelet or cryoprecipitate units. These predictors had a sensitivity of 87.5%, a specificity of 99.28% and an accuracy of 97.93%. Blood product transfusion postoperatively is an independent predictor of bleeding-related re-exploration. Surgical errors prevailed as sources of bleeding. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

  4. Isotopic prediction of eruption volume at continental volcanoes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perry, F.V.; Valentine, G.A.; Crowe, B.M. [and others

    1997-10-01

    This is the final report of a one-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The objective of this project was to determine whether isotopic techniques can be used to assess the eruption potential and eruption volume of continental stratovolcanoes. Large-volume eruptions from stratovolcanoes pose significant hazards to population and infrastructure in many parts of the world. We are testing whether this technique will allow a short- to medium-term (decades to millennia) probabilistic hazard assessment of large-volume eruptions. If successful, the technique will be useful to countries or regions that must consider medium to long-term volcanic (e.g., nuclear waste facilities). We have begun sample acquisition and isotopic measurements at two stratovolcanoes, Pico de Orizaba in eastern Mexico and Daisen in western Japan.

  5. Variables that predict academic procrastination behavior in prospective primary school teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asuman Seda SARACALOĞLU

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to examine the variables predicting academic procrastination behavior of prospective primary school teachers and is conducted using the correlational survey model. The study group is composed of 294 undergraduate students studying primary school teaching programs in faculties of education at Adnan Menderes, Pamukkale, and Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Universities in Turkey. The data collection instruments used were the Procrastination Assessment Scale Students (PASS, Academic Self-Efficacy Scale (ASES, and Academic Motivation Scale (AMS. While analyzing the gathered data, descriptive analysis techniques were utilized. Moreover, while analyzing the data, power of variables namely reasons of academic procrastination, academic motivation, and academic efficacy to predict prospective primary school teachers’ academic procrastination tendencies were tested. For that purpose, stepwise regression analysis was employed. It was found that nearly half of the prospective primary school teachers displayed no academic procrastination behavior. Participants’ reasons for procrastination were fear of failure, laziness, taking risks, and rebellion against control. An average level significant correlation was found between participants’ academic procrastination and other variables. As a result, it was identified that prospective primary school teachers had less academic procrastination than reported in literature and laziness, fear of failure, academic motivation predicted academic procrastination.

  6. Usefulness of Coronary Atheroma Burden to Predict Cardiovascular Events in Patients Presenting With Acute Coronary Syndromes (from the PROSPECT Study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Peiren; Mintz, Gary S; McPherson, John A; De Bruyne, Bernard; Farhat, Naim Z; Marso, Steven P; Serruys, Patrick W; Stone, Gregg W; Maehara, Akiko

    2015-12-01

    We investigated the relation between overall atheroma burden and clinical events in the Providing Regional Observations to Study Predictors of Events in the Coronary Tree (PROSPECT) study. In PROSPECT, 660 patients (3,229 nonculprit lesions with a plaque burden ≥ 40% and complete intravascular ultrasound data) were divided into tertiles according to baseline percent atheroma volume (PAV: total plaque/vessel volume). Patients were followed for 3.4 years (median); major adverse cardiac events (MACE: death from cardiac causes, cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, or rehospitalization because of unstable or progressive angina) were adjudicated to either culprit or nonculprit lesions. Compared with patients in low or intermediate PAV tertiles, patients in the high PAV tertile had the greatest prevalence of plaque rupture and radiofrequency thin-cap fibroatheroma (VH-TCFA) and the highest percentage of necrotic core volume; they were also more likely to have high-risk lesion characteristics: ≥ 1 lesion with minimal luminal area ≤ 4 mm(2), plaque burden >70%, and/or VH-TCFA. Three-year cumulative nonculprit lesion-related MACE was greater in the intermediate and high tertiles than in the low tertile (6.3% vs 14.7% vs 15.1%, low vs intermediate vs high tertiles, p = 0.009). On Cox multivariable analysis, insulin-dependent diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 3.98, p = 0.002), PAV (HR 1.06, p = 0.03), and the presence of ≥1 VH-TCFA (HR 1.80, p = 0.02) were independent predictors of nonculprit MACE. In conclusion, increasing baseline overall atheroma burden was associated with more advanced, complex, and vulnerable intravascular ultrasound lesion morphology and independently predicted nonculprit lesion-related MACE in patients with acute coronary syndromes after successful culprit lesion intervention.

  7. Dose–Volume Modeling of Brachial Plexus-Associated Neuropathy After Radiation Therapy for Head-and-Neck Cancer: Findings From a Prospective Screening Protocol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Allen M., E-mail: amchen@mednet.ucla.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Los Angeles, David Geffen School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California (United States); Wang, Pin-Chieh [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Los Angeles, David Geffen School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California (United States); Daly, Megan E.; Cui, Jing; Hall, William H. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Davis, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Sacramento, California (United States); Vijayakumar, Srinivasan [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Mississippi School of Medicine, Jackson, Mississippi (United States); Phillips, Theodore L. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Davis, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Sacramento, California (United States); Farwell, D. Gregory [Department of Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery, University of California, Davis, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Sacramento, California (United States); Purdy, James A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Davis, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Sacramento, California (United States)

    2014-03-15

    Purpose: Data from a prospective screening protocol administered for patients previously irradiated for head-and-neck cancer was analyzed to identify dosimetric predictors of brachial plexus-associated neuropathy. Methods and Materials: Three hundred fifty-two patients who had previously completed radiation therapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck were prospectively screened from August 2007 to April 2013 using a standardized self-administered instrument for symptoms of neuropathy thought to be related to brachial plexus injury. All patients were disease-free at the time of screening. The median time from radiation therapy was 40 months (range, 6-111 months). A total of 177 patients (50%) underwent neck dissection. Two hundred twenty-one patients (63%) received concurrent chemotherapy. Results: Fifty-one patients (14%) reported brachial plexus-related neuropathic symptoms with the most common being ipsilateral pain (50%), numbness/tingling (40%), and motor weakness and/or muscle atrophy (25%). The 3- and 5-year estimates of freedom from brachial plexus-associated neuropathy were 86% and 81%, respectively. Clinical/pathological N3 disease (P<.001) and maximum radiation dose to the ipsilateral brachial plexus (P=.01) were significantly associated with neuropathic symptoms. Cox regression analysis revealed significant dose–volume effects for brachial plexus-associated neuropathy. The volume of the ipsilateral brachial plexus receiving >70 Gy (V70) predicted for symptoms, with the incidence increasing with V70 >10% (P<.001). A correlation was also observed for the volume receiving >74 Gy (V74) among patients treated without neck dissection, with a cutoff of 4% predictive of symptoms (P=.038). Conclusions: Dose–volume guidelines were developed for radiation planning that may limit brachial plexus-related neuropathies.

  8. Selective contracting for hospital care based on volume, quality, and price: prospects, problems, and unanswered questions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeland, M S; Hunt, S S; Luft, H S

    1987-01-01

    There is a burgeoning interest in selective contracting for specialized hospital services based on volume, price, and quality. The systematic exclusion or inclusion of particular institutions has been extolled by some as an arrangement to reduce costs and by others as a means to increase quality of care. However, little is known about the issues and problems associated with selective contracting based on objective criteria rather than negotiations. Identification of individual institutions with performance significantly better or poorer than expected based on statistical norms is difficult and should be viewed as no more than a first step in evaluating quality and price performance. Actual data on 37 hospitals that provide coronary artery bypass graft surgery in a metropolitan region are used to illustrate some major prospects, problems, and situations arising when certain institutions are considered for exclusion from or inclusion in third-party payment programs. Selective contracting in local areas can potentially decrease duplication of services, reduce cost to purchasers, and lower expected mortality and morbidity for some patient groups. However, these gains must be evaluated against reductions in continuity of care and access to care, potential increases in mortality and morbidity for certain segments of the population, and substantial political problems.

  9. Adolescent inpatient girls׳ report of dependent life events predicts prospective suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Lindsey B; Liu, Richard T; Yen, Shirley

    2014-09-30

    Adolescents with a history of suicidal behavior are especially vulnerable for future suicide attempts, particularly following discharge from an inpatient psychiatric admission. This study is the first to test whether adolescents׳ tendency to generate stress, or report more dependent events to which they contributed, was predictive of prospective suicide events. Ninety adolescent psychiatric inpatients who were admitted for recent suicide risk, completed diagnostic interviews, assessments of history of suicidal behavior, and a self-report questionnaire of major life events at baseline. Participants were followed over the subsequent 6 months after discharge to assess stability vs. onset of suicide events. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used to predict adolescents׳ time to suicide events. Results supported hypothesis, such that only recent greater dependent events, not independent or overall events, predicted risk for prospective suicide events. This effect was specific to adolescent girls. Importantly, dependent events maintained statistical significance as a predictor of future suicide events after co-varying for the effects of several established risk factors and psychopathology. Results suggest that the tendency to generate dependent events may contribute unique additional prediction for adolescent girls׳ prospective suicide risk, and highlight the need for future work in this area.

  10. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

  11. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilaria Bordino

    Full Text Available We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

  12. Web Search Queries Can Predict Stock Market Volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people’s actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www. PMID:22829871

  13. Predicting patient volume in cardiac catheterization laboratory to improve resource management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianhua; Santangelo, Jennifer; James, Randy; Watters, Coyt D; Orsini, Anthony; Mekhjian, Hagop; Kamal, Jyoti

    2008-11-06

    Using historical data within the Information Warehouse of the Ohio State University Medical Center, prediction on daily patient volume to catheterization laboratory was attempted to facilitate resource management and planning.

  14. Emotionally biased cognitive processes: the weakest link predicts prospective changes in depressive symptom severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everaert, Jonas; Duyck, Wouter; Koster, Ernst H W

    2015-01-01

    Emotional biases in attention, interpretation, and memory are predictive of future depressive symptoms. It remains unknown, however, how these biased cognitive processes interact to predict depressive symptom levels in the long-term. In the present study, we tested the predictive value of two integrative approaches to model relations between multiple biased cognitive processes, namely the additive (i.e., cognitive processes have a cumulative effect) vs. the weakest link (i.e., the dominant pathogenic process is important) model. We also tested whether these integrative models interacted with perceived stress to predict prospective changes in depressive symptom severity. At Time 1, participants completed measures of depressive symptom severity and emotional biases in attention, interpretation, and memory. At Time 2, one year later, participants were reassessed to determine depressive symptom levels and perceived stress. Results revealed that the weakest link model had incremental validity over the additive model in predicting prospective changes in depressive symptoms, though both models explained a significant proportion of variance in the change in depressive symptoms from Time 1 to Time 2. None of the integrative models interacted with perceived stress to predict changes in depressive symptomatology. These findings suggest that the best cognitive marker of the evolution in depressive symptoms is the cognitive process that is dominantly biased toward negative material, which operates independent from experienced stress. This highlights the importance of considering idiographic cognitive profiles with multiple cognitive processes for understanding and modifying effects of cognitive biases in depression.

  15. Mean platelet volume (MPV predicts middle distance running performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Lippi

    Full Text Available Running economy and performance in middle distance running depend on several physiological factors, which include anthropometric variables, functional characteristics, training volume and intensity. Since little information is available about hematological predictors of middle distance running time, we investigated whether some hematological parameters may be associated with middle distance running performance in a large sample of recreational runners.The study population consisted in 43 amateur runners (15 females, 28 males; median age 47 years, who successfully concluded a 21.1 km half-marathon at 75-85% of their maximal aerobic power (VO2max. Whole blood was collected 10 min before the run started and immediately thereafter, and hematological testing was completed within 2 hours after sample collection.The values of lymphocytes and eosinophils exhibited a significant decrease compared to pre-run values, whereas those of mean corpuscular volume (MCV, platelets, mean platelet volume (MPV, white blood cells (WBCs, neutrophils and monocytes were significantly increased after the run. In univariate analysis, significant associations with running time were found for pre-run values of hematocrit, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH, red blood cell distribution width (RDW, MPV, reticulocyte hemoglobin concentration (RetCHR, and post-run values of MCH, RDW, MPV, monocytes and RetCHR. In multivariate analysis, in which running time was entered as dependent variable whereas age, sex, blood lactate, body mass index, VO2max, mean training regimen and the hematological parameters significantly associated with running performance in univariate analysis were entered as independent variables, only MPV values before and after the trial remained significantly associated with running time. After adjustment for platelet count, the MPV value before the run (p = 0.042, but not thereafter (p = 0.247, remained significantly associated with running

  16. Body Dissatisfaction Prospectively Predicts Depressive Mood and Low Self-Esteem in Adolescent Girls and Boys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Susan J.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J.; Eisenberg, Marla E.

    2006-01-01

    This research examined whether body dissatisfaction prospectively predicted depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys 5 years later. Participants were early-adolescent girls (n = 440, Time 1 M age = 12.7 years) and boys (n = 366, Time 1 M age = 12.8 years) and midadolescent girls (n = 946, Time 1 M age = 15.8 years) and boys…

  17. Body Dissatisfaction Prospectively Predicts Depressive Mood and Low Self-Esteem in Adolescent Girls and Boys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Susan J.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J.; Eisenberg, Marla E.

    2006-01-01

    This research examined whether body dissatisfaction prospectively predicted depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys 5 years later. Participants were early-adolescent girls (n = 440, Time 1 M age = 12.7 years) and boys (n = 366, Time 1 M age = 12.8 years) and midadolescent girls (n = 946, Time 1 M age = 15.8 years) and boys…

  18. Ovarian volume and antral follicle count for the prediction of low and hyper responders with in vitro fertilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elting Mariet E

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The current study was designed to compare antral follicle count (AFC and basal ovarian volume (BOV, the exogenous FSH ovarian reserve test (EFORT and the clomiphene citrate challenge test (CCCT, with respect to their ability to predict poor and hyper responders. Methods One hundred and ten regularly menstruating patients, aged 18–39 years, participated in this prospective study, randomized, by a computer designed 4-blocks system study into two groups. Fifty six patients underwent a CCCT, and 54 patients underwent an EFORT. All patients underwent a transvaginal sonography to measure the basal ovarian volume and count of basal antral follicle. In all patients, the test was followed by a standard IVF treatment. The result of ovarian hyperstimulation during IVF treatment, expressed by the total number of follicles, was used as gold standard. Results The best prediction of ovarian reserve (Y was seen in a multiple regression prediction model that included, AFC, Inhibin B-increment in the EFORT and BOV simultaneously (Y = -3.161 + 0.805 × AFC (0.258-1.352 + 0.034 × Inh. B-incr. (0.007-0.601 + 0.511 BOV (0.480-0.974 (r = 0.848, p Conclusion In conclusion AFC performs well as a test for ovarian response being superior or at least similar to complex expensive and time consuming endocrine tests. It is therefore likely to be the test for general practise.

  19. Prospective evaluation of shape similarity based pose prediction method in D3R Grand Challenge 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Ashutosh; Zhang, Kam Y. J.

    2016-09-01

    Evaluation of ligand three-dimensional (3D) shape similarity is one of the commonly used approaches to identify ligands similar to one or more known active compounds from a library of small molecules. Apart from using ligand shape similarity as a virtual screening tool, its role in pose prediction and pose scoring has also been reported. We have recently developed a method that utilizes ligand 3D shape similarity with known crystallographic ligands to predict binding poses of query ligands. Here, we report the prospective evaluation of our pose prediction method through the participation in drug design data resource (D3R) Grand Challenge 2015. Our pose prediction method was used to predict binding poses of heat shock protein 90 (HSP90) and mitogen activated protein kinase kinase kinase kinase (MAP4K4) ligands and it was able to predict the pose within 2 Å root mean square deviation (RMSD) either as the top pose or among the best of five poses in a majority of cases. Specifically for HSP90 protein, a median RMSD of 0.73 and 0.68 Å was obtained for the top and the best of five predictions respectively. For MAP4K4 target, although the median RMSD for our top prediction was only 2.87 Å but the median RMSD of 1.67 Å for the best of five predictions was well within the limit for successful prediction. Furthermore, the performance of our pose prediction method for HSP90 and MAP4K4 ligands was always among the top five groups. Particularly, for MAP4K4 protein our pose prediction method was ranked number one both in terms of mean and median RMSD when the best of five predictions were considered. Overall, our D3R Grand Challenge 2015 results demonstrated that ligand 3D shape similarity with the crystal ligand is sufficient to predict binding poses of new ligands with acceptable accuracy.

  20. Quantitative prediction of respiratory tidal volume based on the external torso volume change: a potential volumetric surrogate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Guang; Arora, Naveen C; Xie Huchen; Ning, Holly; Citrin, Deborah; Kaushal, Aradhana; Zach, Leor; Camphausen, Kevin; Miller, Robert W [Radiation Oncology Branch, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States); Lu Wei; Low, Daniel [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO 63110 (United States)], E-mail: ligeorge@mail.nih.gov

    2009-04-07

    An external respiratory surrogate that not only highly correlates with but also quantitatively predicts internal tidal volume should be useful in guiding four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT), as well as 4D radiation therapy (4DRT). A volumetric surrogate should have advantages over external fiducial point(s) for monitoring respiration-induced motion of the torso, which deforms in synchronization with a patient-specific breathing pattern. This study establishes a linear relationship between the external torso volume change (TVC) and lung air volume change (AVC) by validating a proposed volume conservation hypothesis (TVC = AVC) throughout the respiratory cycle using 4DCT and spirometry. Fourteen patients' torso 4DCT images and corresponding spirometric tidal volumes were acquired to examine this hypothesis. The 4DCT images were acquired using dual surrogates in cine mode and amplitude-based binning in 12 respiratory stages, minimizing residual motion artifacts. Torso and lung volumes were calculated using threshold-based segmentation algorithms and volume changes were calculated relative to the full-exhalation stage. The TVC and AVC, as functions of respiratory stages, were compared, showing a high correlation (r = 0.992 {+-} 0.005, p < 0.0001) as well as a linear relationship (slope = 1.027 {+-} 0.061, R{sup 2} = 0.980) without phase shift. The AVC was also compared to the spirometric tidal volumes, showing a similar linearity (slope = 1.030 {+-} 0.092, R{sup 2} = 0.947). In contrast, the thoracic and abdominal heights measured from 4DCT showed relatively low correlation (0.28 {+-} 0.44 and 0.82 {+-} 0.30, respectively) and location-dependent phase shifts. This novel approach establishes the foundation for developing an external volumetric respiratory surrogate.

  1. Midlife memory improvement predicts preservation of hippocampal volume in old age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borghesani, Paul R; Weaver, Kurt E; Aylward, Elizabeth H; Richards, Anne L; Madhyastha, Tara M; Kahn, Ali R; Liang, Olivia; Ellenbogen, Rachel L; Beg, M Faisal; Schaie, K Warner; Willis, Sherry L

    2012-07-01

    This study examines whether midlife change in episodic memory predicts hippocampal volume in old age. From the Seattle Longitudinal Study we retrospectively identified 84 healthy, cognitively normal individuals, age 52 to 87, whose episodic memory had reliably declined (n = 33), improved (n = 28) or remained stable (n = 23) over a 14-year period in midlife (age 43-63). Midlife memory improvement was associated with 13% larger hippocampal volume (p volume for those currently in late middle age (age 52-65). The pattern of findings was not modified by gender, apolipoprotein ε4 status, education or current memory performance. Change in midlife memory scores over 14 years, but not any single assessment, predicted hippocampal volumes in old age, emphasizing the importance of longitudinal data in examining brain-cognition relationships. These findings suggest that improvement in memory in midlife is associated with sparing of hippocampal volume in later life.

  2. Prognostic and predictive value of liver volume on colorectal cancer patients with unresectable liver metastases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jun Su; Park, Hee Chul; Choi, Doo Ho; Park, Won; Yu, Jeong Il; Park, Young Suk; Kang, Won Ki; Park, Joon Oh [Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-06-15

    To determine the prognostic and predictive value of liver volume in colorectal cancer patients with unresectable liver metastases. Sixteen patients received whole liver radiotherapy (WLRT) between January 1997 and June 2013. A total dose of 21 Gy was delivered in 7 fractions. The median survival time after WLRT was 9 weeks. In univariate analysis, performance status, serum albumin and total bilirubin level, liver volume and extrahepatic metastases were associated with survival. The mean liver volume was significantly different between subgroups with and without pain relief (3,097 and 4,739 mL, respectively; p = 0.002). A larger liver volume is a poor prognostic factor for survival and also a negative predictive factor for response to WLRT. If patients who are referred for WLRT have large liver volume, they should be informed of the poor prognosis and should be closely observed during and after WLRT.

  3. Metamemory prediction accuracy for simple prospective and retrospective memory tasks in 5-year-old children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvavilashvili, Lia; Ford, Ruth M

    2014-11-01

    It is well documented that young children greatly overestimate their performance on tests of retrospective memory (RM), but the current investigation is the first to examine children's prediction accuracy for prospective memory (PM). Three studies were conducted, each testing a different group of 5-year-olds. In Study 1 (N=46), participants were asked to predict their success in a simple event-based PM task (remembering to convey a message to a toy mole if they encountered a particular picture during a picture-naming activity). Before naming the pictures, children listened to either a reminder story or a neutral story. Results showed that children were highly accurate in their PM predictions (78% accuracy) and that the reminder story appeared to benefit PM only in children who predicted they would remember the PM response. In Study 2 (N=80), children showed high PM prediction accuracy (69%) regardless of whether the cue was specific or general and despite typical overoptimism regarding their performance on a 10-item RM task using item-by-item prediction. Study 3 (N=35) showed that children were prone to overestimate RM even when asked about their ability to recall a single item-the mole's unusual name. In light of these findings, we consider possible reasons for children's impressive PM prediction accuracy, including the potential involvement of future thinking in performance predictions and PM.

  4. Simple clinical variables predict liver histology in hepatitis C: prospective validation of a clinical prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romagnuolo, Joseph; Andrews, Christopher N; Bain, Vincent G; Bonacini, Maurizio; Cotler, Scott J; Ma, Mang; Sherman, Morris

    2005-11-01

    A recent single-center multivariate analysis of hepatitis C (HCV) patients showed that having any two criteria: 1) ferritin > or =200 microg/l and 2) spider nevi and/or albumin clinical prediction model using an independent multicenter sample. Eighty-one patients with previously untreated active chronic HCV underwent physical examination, laboratory investigation, and liver biopsy. Biopsies were read, in blinded fashion, by a single pathologist, using a modified Hytiroglou (1995) scale. The clinical scoring system was correlated with histology; likelihood ratios (LRs), Fisher's exact p-values, and receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) were calculated. Data recording was complete in 77 and 38 patients regarding fibrotic stage and inflammatory grade, respectively. For fibrosis, 3/3 patients with any three criteria (LR 17, positive predictive value (PPV) 100%), 4/5 patients with any two criteria (LR 5.1), and 15/47 with no criteria (LR 0.6, negative predictive value (NPV) 68%) had stage 2 or greater fibrosis on biopsy (p=0.01). For inflammation, 5/5 patients with both criteria (LR 15, PPV 100%), and 8/19 patients with no criteria (LR 0.5, NPV 58%) had moderate-severe inflammation on liver biopsy (p=0.036). When missing variables were assumed to be normal, recalculated LRs were almost identical. An alanine aminotransferase (ALAT) level data set has validated our published model which uses simple clinical variables accurately and significantly to predict hepatic fibrosis and inflammation in HCV patients.

  5. Fetal volume measurements with three dimensional ultrasound in the first trimester of pregnancy, related to pregnancy outcome, a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smeets Nicol AC

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background First trimester growth restriction is associated with an increased risk of adverse birth outcomes (preterm birth, low birth weight and small for gestational age at birth. The differences between normal and abnormal growth in early pregnancy are small if the fetal size is measured by the crown-rump-length. Three-dimensional ultrasound volume measurements might give more information about fetal development than two-dimensional ultrasound measurements. Detection of the fetus with a small fetal volume might result in earlier detection of high risk pregnancies and a better selection of high risk pregnancies. Methods A prospective cohort study, performed at the Máxima Medical Centre, in Eindhoven-Veldhoven, the Netherlands. During the routine first trimester scan with nuchal translucency measurement 500 fetal volumes will be obtained. The gestational age is based on the first day of the last menstrual period in a regular menstrual cycle and by the crown-rump-length. The acquired datasets are collected and stored on a hard disk for offline processing and volume calculation. The investigator who performs the volume measurements is blinded for the results of the first trimester scan. The manual mode will be used to outline the Region Of Interest, the fetal head and rump, in all cross sections. The fetal volumes are calculated with a rotational step of 9°. First, the relation between fetal volume and gestational age, for a set of participants with normal pregnancies (training set, will be assessed. This model will then be used to determine expected values of fetal volume for a normal pregnancy, which will be referred to as expected normal values. Secondly, for a new set of participants with normal pregnancies and a set of participants with complicated pregnancies (together defined as validation set, the observed fetal volumes (FVobserved are compared with their expected normal values (FVexpected and expressed as a percentage of the

  6. Left Atrial Volume Index and Prediction of Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome: Solar Registry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Alves Secundo Junior

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: According to some international studies, patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS and increased left atrial volume index (LAVI have worse long-term prognosis. However, national Brazilian studies confirming this prediction are still lacking. Objective: To evaluate LAVI as a predictor of major cardiovascular events (MCE in patients with ACS during a 365-day follow-up. Methods: Prospective cohort of 171 patients diagnosed with ACS whose LAVI was calculated within 48 hours after hospital admission. According to LAVI, two groups were categorized: normal LAVI (≤ 32 mL/m2 and increased LAVI (> 32 mL/m2. Both groups were compared regarding clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, in- and out-of-hospital outcomes, and occurrence of ECM in up to 365 days. Results: Increased LAVI was observed in 78 patients (45%, and was associated with older age, higher body mass index, hypertension, history of myocardial infarction and previous angioplasty, and lower creatinine clearance and ejection fraction. During hospitalization, acute pulmonary edema was more frequent in patients with increased LAVI (14.1% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.024. After discharge, the occurrence of combined outcome for MCE was higher (p = 0.001 in the group with increased LAVI (26% as compared to the normal LAVI group (7% [RR (95% CI = 3.46 (1.54-7.73 vs. 0.80 (0.69-0.92]. After Cox regression, increased LAVI increased the probability of MCE (HR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.28-7.40, p = 0.012. Conclusion: Increased LAVI is an important predictor of MCE in a one-year follow-up.

  7. Left Atrial Volume Index and Prediction of Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome: Solar Registry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secundo Junior, Jose Alves; Santos, Marcos Antonio Almeida; Faro, Gustavo Baptista de Almeida; Soares, Camile Bittencourt; Silva, Allyson Matos Porto; Secundo, Paulo Fernando Carvalho; Teixeira, Clarissa Karine Cardoso; Oliveira, Joselina Luzia Menezes; Barreto Filho, Jose Augusto Soares; Sousa, Antônio Carlos Sobral

    2014-01-01

    Background According to some international studies, patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and increased left atrial volume index (LAVI) have worse long-term prognosis. However, national Brazilian studies confirming this prediction are still lacking. Objective To evaluate LAVI as a predictor of major cardiovascular events (MCE) in patients with ACS during a 365-day follow-up. Methods Prospective cohort of 171 patients diagnosed with ACS whose LAVI was calculated within 48 hours after hospital admission. According to LAVI, two groups were categorized: normal LAVI (≤ 32 mL/m2) and increased LAVI (> 32 mL/m2). Both groups were compared regarding clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, in- and out-of-hospital outcomes, and occurrence of ECM in up to 365 days. Results Increased LAVI was observed in 78 patients (45%), and was associated with older age, higher body mass index, hypertension, history of myocardial infarction and previous angioplasty, and lower creatinine clearance and ejection fraction. During hospitalization, acute pulmonary edema was more frequent in patients with increased LAVI (14.1% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.024). After discharge, the occurrence of combined outcome for MCE was higher (p = 0.001) in the group with increased LAVI (26%) as compared to the normal LAVI group (7%) [RR (95% CI) = 3.46 (1.54-7.73) vs. 0.80 (0.69-0.92)]. After Cox regression, increased LAVI increased the probability of MCE (HR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.28-7.40, p = 0.012). Conclusion Increased LAVI is an important predictor of MCE in a one-year follow-up. PMID:25119895

  8. The "ick" Factor Matters: Disgust Prospectively Predicts Avoidance in Chemotherapy Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Lisa M; Bissett, Ian P; Porter, David; Consedine, Nathan S

    2016-12-01

    Chemotherapy can be physically and psychologically demanding. Avoidance and withdrawal are common among patients coping with these demands. This report compares established emotional predictors of avoidance during chemotherapy (embarrassment; distress) with an emotion (disgust) that has been unstudied in this context. This report outlines secondary analyses of an RCT where 68 cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy were randomized to mindfulness or relaxation interventions. Self-reported baseline disgust (DS-R), embarrassment (SES-SF), and distress (Distress Thermometer) were used to prospectively predict multiple classes of avoidance post-intervention and at 3 months follow-up. Measures assessed social avoidance, cognitive and emotional avoidance (IES Avoidance), as well as information seeking and treatment adherence (General Adherence Scale). Repeated-measures ANOVAs evaluated possible longitudinal changes in disgust and forward entry regression models contrasted the ability of the affective variables to predict avoidance. Although disgust did not change over time or vary between groups, greater disgust predicted greater social, cognitive, and emotional avoidance, as well as greater information seeking. Social avoidance was predicted by trait embarrassment and distress predicted non-adherence. This report represents the first investigation of disgust's ability to prospectively predict avoidance in people undergoing chemotherapy. Compared to embarrassment and distress, disgust was a more consistent predictor across avoidance domains and its predictive ability was evident across a longer period of time. Findings highlight disgust's role as an indicator of likely avoidance in this health context. Early identification of cancer patients at risk of deleterious avoidance may enable timely interventions and has important clinical implications (ACTRN12613000238774).

  9. Predictive Power of Prospective Physical Education Teachers' Attitudes towards Educational Technologies for Their Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varol, Yaprak Kalemoglu

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the research is to determine the predictive power of prospective physical education teachers' attitudes towards educational technologies for their technological pedagogical content knowledge. In this study, a relational research model was used on a study group that consisted of 529 (M[subscript age]=21.49, SD=1.44) prospective physical…

  10. Physical activity predicts gray matter volume in late adulthood: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, K I; Raji, C A; Lopez, O L; Becker, J T; Rosano, C; Newman, A B; Gach, H M; Thompson, P M; Ho, A J; Kuller, L H

    2010-10-19

    Physical activity (PA) has been hypothesized to spare gray matter volume in late adulthood, but longitudinal data testing an association has been lacking. Here we tested whether PA would be associated with greater gray matter volume after a 9-year follow-up, a threshold could be identified for the amount of walking necessary to spare gray matter volume, and greater gray matter volume associated with PA would be associated with a reduced risk for cognitive impairment 13 years after the PA evaluation. In 299 adults (mean age 78 years) from the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study, we examined the association between gray matter volume, PA, and cognitive impairment. Physical activity was quantified as the number of blocks walked over 1 week. High-resolution brain scans were acquired 9 years after the PA assessment on cognitively normal adults. White matter hyperintensities, ventricular grade, and other health variables at baseline were used as covariates. Clinical adjudication for cognitive impairment occurred 13 years after baseline. Walking amounts ranged from 0 to 300 blocks (mean 56.3; SD 69.7). Greater PA predicted greater volumes of frontal, occipital, entorhinal, and hippocampal regions 9 years later. Walking 72 blocks was necessary to detect increased gray matter volume but walking more than 72 blocks did not spare additional volume. Greater gray matter volume with PA reduced the risk for cognitive impairment 2-fold. Greater amounts of walking are associated with greater gray matter volume, which is in turn associated with a reduced risk of cognitive impairment.

  11. Use of steel slag as a granular material: volume expansion prediction and usability criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, George; Wang, Yuhong; Gao, Zhili

    2010-12-15

    The theoretical equation for predicting volume expansion of steel slag is deduced based on both chemical reaction and physical changes of free lime in steel slag during the hydration process. Laboratory volume expansion testing is conducted to compare the results with the theoretical volume expansion. It is proved that they correlated well. It is furthermore experimentally proved that certain volume expansion of steel slag can be absorbed internally by the void volume in bulk steel slag under external surcharge weight making the apparent volume expansion equal zero. The minimum (lowest) absorbable void volume is approximately 7.5%, which is unrelated to the free lime content. A usability criterion is then developed based on the volume expansion of steel slag (%) and the minimum percentage of the volume that can take the volume expansion of steel slag (%). Eventually the criterion (relationship) is established based on the free lime content, the specific gravity and bulk relative gravity of a specific steel slag sample. The criteria can be used as guidance and specification for the use of steel slag and other expansion-prone nonferrous slags, copper, nickel for instance as a granular material in highway construction.

  12. Predicting mortality with biomarkers: a population-based prospective cohort study for elderly Costa Ricans

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    Rosero-Bixby Luis

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about adult health and mortality relationships outside high-income nations, partly because few datasets have contained biomarker data in representative populations. Our objective is to determine the prognostic value of biomarkers with respect to total and cardiovascular mortality in an elderly population of a middle-income country, as well as the extent to which they mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality. Methods This is a prospective population-based study in a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans. Baseline interviews occurred mostly in 2005 and mortality follow-up went through December 2010. Sample size after excluding observations with missing values: 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths. Main outcome: prospective death rate ratios for 22 baseline biomarkers, which were estimated with hazard regression models. Results Biomarkers significantly predict future death above and beyond demographic and self-reported health conditions. The studied biomarkers account for almost half of the effect of age on mortality. However, the sex gap in mortality became several times wider after controlling for biomarkers. The most powerful predictors were simple physical tests: handgrip strength, pulmonary peak flow, and walking speed. Three blood tests also predicted prospective mortality: C-reactive protein (CRP, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c, and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS. Strikingly, high blood pressure (BP and high total cholesterol showed little or no predictive power. Anthropometric measures also failed to show significant mortality effects. Conclusions This study adds to the growing evidence that blood markers for CRP, HbA1c, and DHEAS, along with organ-specific functional reserve indicators (handgrip, walking speed, and pulmonary peak flow, are valuable tools for identifying vulnerable elderly. The results also highlight the need to better understand an anomaly noted previously in

  13. Xinjiang Dabancheng Project Forecasts Copper Mine Prospecting Metal Volume to Reach Medium Size

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2016-01-01

    Based on forecast for current engineering workload,controlled copper metal volume was320,000 tonnes,and zinc metal volume was 220,000 tonnes,which respectively can reach medium sized deposit size,meanwhile associated selenium and silver resource volumes respectively reached 150 plus tonnes;

  14. Emotional inertia prospectively predicts the onset of depressive disorder in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuppens, Peter; Sheeber, Lisa B; Yap, Marie B H; Whittle, Sarah; Simmons, Julian G; Allen, Nicholas B

    2012-04-01

    Emotional inertia refers to the degree to which a person's current emotional state is predicted by their prior emotional state, reflecting how much it carries over from one moment to the next. Recently, in a cross-sectional study, we showed that high inertia is an important characteristic of the emotion dynamics observed in psychological maladjustment such as depression. In the present study, we examined whether emotional inertia prospectively predicts the onset of first-episode depression during adolescence. Emotional inertia was assessed in a sample of early adolescents (N = 165) based on second-to-second behavioral coding of videotaped naturalistic interactions with a parent. Greater inertia of both negative and positive emotional behaviors predicted the emergence of clinical depression 2.5 years later. The implications of these findings for the understanding of the etiology and early detection of depression are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Non Destructive Method for Biomass Prediction Combining TLS Derived Tree Volume and Wood Density

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    Jan Hackenberg

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for predicting the above ground leafless biomass of trees in a non destructive way. We utilize terrestrial laserscan data to predict the volume of the trees. Combining volume estimates with density measurements leads to biomass predictions. Thirty-six trees of three different species are analyzed: evergreen coniferous Pinus massoniana, evergreen broadleaved Erythrophleum fordii and leafless deciduous Quercus petraea. All scans include a large number of noise points; denoising procedures are presented in detail. Density values are considered to be a minor source of error in the method if applied to stem segments, as comparison to ground truth data reveals that prediction errors for the tree volumes are in accordance with biomass prediction errors. While tree compartments with a diameter larger than 10 cm can be modeled accurately, smaller ones, especially twigs with a diameter smaller than 4 cm, are often largely overestimated. Better prediction results could be achieved by applying a biomass expansion factor to the biomass of compartments with a diameter larger than 10 cm. With this second method the average prediction error for Q. petraea could be reduced from 33.84% overestimation to 3.56%. E. fordii results could also be improved reducing the average prediction error from

  16. Food cravings prospectively predict decreases in perceived self-regulatory success in dieting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meule, Adrian; Richard, Anna; Platte, Petra

    2017-01-01

    Food cravings are assumed to hamper dieting success, but most findings are based on cross-sectional studies. In the current study, female students were tested at the beginning of their first semester at university and six months later. They completed the Food Cravings Questionnaire-Trait-reduced (FCQ-T-r), the disinhibition subscale of the Eating Inventory, and the Perceived Self-Regulatory Success in Dieting Scale, and their height and weight were measured. Scores on the FCQ-T-r prospectively predicted higher disinhibition and lower perceived self-regulatory success in dieting after six months. Although FCQ-T-r scores did not predict increases in body mass index (BMI) directly, a serial mediation model revealed an indirect effect of FCQ-T-r scores at baseline on BMI after six months via increased disinhibition scores and decreased perceived self-regulatory success in dieting. To conclude, the current results provide evidence for a prospective relationship between trait food craving and decreases in dieting success. Furthermore, they suggest a possible mediator of this association (i.e., increases in disinhibited eating) as well as an indirect effect on body weight. Measurement of trait food craving may be a useful tool for predicting or monitoring treatment changes and relapse in eating- and weight disorders.

  17. Computational Methods for Protein Structure Prediction and Modeling Volume 1: Basic Characterization

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Ying; Liang, Jie

    2007-01-01

    Volume one of this two volume sequence focuses on the basic characterization of known protein structures as well as structure prediction from protein sequence information. The 11 chapters provide an overview of the field, covering key topics in modeling, force fields, classification, computational methods, and struture prediction. Each chapter is a self contained review designed to cover (1) definition of the problem and an historical perspective, (2) mathematical or computational formulation of the problem, (3) computational methods and algorithms, (4) performance results, (5) existing software packages, and (6) strengths, pitfalls, challenges, and future research directions.

  18. Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

  19. Do race, neglect, and childhood poverty predict physical health in adulthood? A multilevel prospective analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikulina, Valentina

    2015-01-01

    Childhood neglect and poverty often co-occur and both have been linked to poor physical health outcomes. In addition, Blacks have higher rates of childhood poverty and tend to have worse health than Whites. This paper examines the unique and interacting effects of childhood neglect, race, and family and neighborhood poverty on adult physical health outcomes. This prospective cohort design study uses a sample (N = 675) of court-substantiated cases of childhood neglect and matched controls followed into adulthood (Mage = 41). Health indicators (C-Reactive Protein [CRP], hypertension, and pulmonary functioning) were assessed through blood collection and measurements by a registered nurse. Data were analyzed using hierarchical linear models to control for clustering of participants in childhood neighborhoods. Main effects showed that growing up Black predicted CRP and hypertension elevations, despite controlling for neglect and childhood family and neighborhood poverty and their interactions. Multivariate results showed that race and childhood adversities interacted to predict adult health outcomes. Childhood family poverty predicted increased risk for hypertension for Blacks, not Whites. In contrast, among Whites, childhood neglect predicted elevated CRP. Childhood neighborhood poverty interacted with childhood family poverty to predict pulmonary functioning in adulthood. Gender differences in health indicators were also observed. The effects of childhood neglect, childhood poverty, and growing up Black in the United States are manifest in physical health outcomes assessed 30 years later. Implications are discussed. PMID:24189205

  20. Do race, neglect, and childhood poverty predict physical health in adulthood? A multilevel prospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikulina, Valentina; Widom, Cathy Spatz

    2014-03-01

    Childhood neglect and poverty often co-occur and both have been linked to poor physical health outcomes. In addition, Blacks have higher rates of childhood poverty and tend to have worse health than Whites. This paper examines the unique and interacting effects of childhood neglect, race, and family and neighborhood poverty on adult physical health outcomes. This prospective cohort design study uses a sample (N=675) of court-substantiated cases of childhood neglect and matched controls followed into adulthood (M(age)=41). Health indicators (C-Reactive Protein [CRP], hypertension, and pulmonary functioning) were assessed through blood collection and measurements by a registered nurse. Data were analyzed using hierarchical linear models to control for clustering of participants in childhood neighborhoods. Main effects showed that growing up Black predicted CRP and hypertension elevations, despite controlling for neglect and childhood family and neighborhood poverty and their interactions. Multivariate results showed that race and childhood adversities interacted to predict adult health outcomes. Childhood family poverty predicted increased risk for hypertension for Blacks, not Whites. In contrast, among Whites, childhood neglect predicted elevated CRP. Childhood neighborhood poverty interacted with childhood family poverty to predict pulmonary functioning in adulthood. Gender differences in health indicators were also observed. The effects of childhood neglect, childhood poverty, and growing up Black in the United States are manifest in physical health outcomes assessed 30 years later. Implications are discussed.

  1. The Temporal Stability and Predictive Ability of the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES): A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flack, Mal; Morris, Mary

    2016-09-01

    Previous research using the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES; Flack and Morris in J Gambl Stud, 2015. doi: 10.1007/s10899-014-9484-z ) revealed the instrument has excellent psychometric properties and differentially predicts gambling frequency and problem gambling scores. However, like the existing gambling motivation scales, the GOES psychometric properties and predictive utility have not been tested outside of cross sectional studies. The current study used a prospective survey design to redress this issue. Eight hundred and ninety-three participants, drawn from the general community, completed the second wave of the gambling survey. Temporal invariance testing revealed the GOES was reliable. Furthermore, the ability of the GOES to predict gambling behaviour using baseline and concurrent measures of gambling outcome expectancies was demonstrated. Specifically, consistent with the Wave 1 results, the gambling outcome expectancies that reflect diverse reasons for gambling (e.g., social, escape, and money) preferentially predicted gambling frequency whereas the narrower range of emotion focused reasons (e.g., excitement, escape, and ego enhancement) predicted gambling problems. Considered in light of the Wave 1 findings, these results underscore the need for gambling harm minimisation initiatives to take into account the emotion-oriented reasons for gambling.

  2. Emphysema predicts hospitalisation and incident airflow obstruction among older smokers: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A McAllister

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Emphysema on CT is common in older smokers. We hypothesised that emphysema on CT predicts acute episodes of care for chronic lower respiratory disease among older smokers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Participants in a lung cancer screening study age ≥ 60 years were recruited into a prospective cohort study in 2001-02. Two radiologists independently visually assessed the severity of emphysema as absent, mild, moderate or severe. Percent emphysema was defined as the proportion of voxels ≤ -910 Hounsfield Units. Participants completed a median of 5 visits over a median of 6 years of follow-up. The primary outcome was hospitalization, emergency room or urgent office visit for chronic lower respiratory disease. Spirometry was performed following ATS/ERS guidelines. Airflow obstruction was defined as FEV1/FVC ratio <0.70 and FEV1<80% predicted. RESULTS: Of 521 participants, 4% had moderate or severe emphysema, which was associated with acute episodes of care (rate ratio 1.89; 95% CI: 1.01-3.52 adjusting for age, sex and race/ethnicity, as was percent emphysema, with similar associations for hospitalisation. Emphysema on visual assessment also predicted incident airflow obstruction (HR 5.14; 95% CI 2.19-21.1. CONCLUSION: Visually assessed emphysema and percent emphysema on CT predicted acute episodes of care for chronic lower respiratory disease, with the former predicting incident airflow obstruction among older smokers.

  3. Past, present and prospect of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based model for sediment transport prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin; El-shafie, Ahmed; Mohtar, Wan Hanna Melini Wan; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher

    2016-10-01

    An accurate model for sediment prediction is a priority for all hydrological researchers. Many conventional methods have shown an inability to achieve an accurate prediction of suspended sediment. These methods are unable to understand the behaviour of sediment transport in rivers due to the complexity, noise, non-stationarity, and dynamism of the sediment pattern. In the past two decades, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and computational approaches have become a remarkable tool for developing an accurate model. These approaches are considered a powerful tool for solving any non-linear model, as they can deal easily with a large number of data and sophisticated models. This paper is a review of all AI approaches that have been applied in sediment modelling. The current research focuses on the development of AI application in sediment transport. In addition, the review identifies major challenges and opportunities for prospective research. Throughout the literature, complementary models superior to classical modelling.

  4. Appraisal in a Team Context: Perceptions of Cohesion Predict Competition Importance and Prospects for Coping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Svenja A; Eys, Mark A; Sadler, Pamela; Kleinert, Jens

    2015-10-01

    Athletes' precompetitive appraisal is important because it determines emotions, which may impact performance. When part of a team, athletes make their appraisal within a social context, and in this study we examined whether perceived team cohesion, as a characteristic of this context, related to appraisal. We asked 386 male and female intercollegiate team-sport athletes to respond to measures of cohesion and precompetitive appraisal before an in-season game. For males and females, across all teams, (a) an appraisal of increased competition importance was predicted by perceptions of higher task cohesion (individual level), better previous team performance, and a weaker opponent (team level) and (b) an appraisal of more positive prospects for coping with competitive demands was predicted by higher individual attractions to the group (individual level). Consequently, athletes who perceive their team as more cohesive likely appraise the pending competition as a challenge, which would benefit both emotions and performance.

  5. Maternal feeding practices predict weight gain and obesogenic eating behaviors in young children: a prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodgers Rachel F

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Maternal feeding practices have been proposed to play an important role in early child weight gain and obesogenic eating behaviors. However, to date longitudinal investigations in young children exploring these relationships have been lacking. The aim of the present study was to explore prospective relationships between maternal feeding practices, child weight gain and obesogenic eating behaviors in 2-year-old children. The competing hypothesis that child eating behaviors predict changes in maternal feeding practices was also examined. Methods A sample of 323 mother (mean age = 35 years, ± 0.37 and child dyads (mean age = 2.03 years, ± 0.37 at recruitment were participants. Mothers completed a questionnaire assessing parental feeding practices and child eating behaviors at baseline and again one year later. Child BMI (predominantly objectively measured was obtained at both time points. Results Increases in child BMI z-scores over the follow-up period were predicted by maternal instrumental feeding practices. Furthermore, restriction, emotional feeding, encouragement to eat, weight-based restriction and fat restriction were associated prospectively with the development of obesogenic eating behaviors in children including emotional eating, tendency to overeat and food approach behaviors (such as enjoyment of food and good appetite. Maternal monitoring, however, predicted decreases in food approach eating behaviors. Partial support was also observed for child eating behaviors predicting maternal feeding practices. Conclusions Maternal feeding practices play an important role in the development of weight gain and obesogenic eating behaviors in young children and are potential targets for effective prevention interventions aiming to decrease child obesity.

  6. ATTENTIONAL BIAS TEMPORAL DYNAMICS PREDICT POSTTRAUMATIC STRESS SYMPTOMS: A PROSPECTIVE-LONGITUDINAL STUDY AMONG SOLDIERS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, Judith; Bernstein, Amit; Zvielli, Ariel; Höfler, Michael; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Schönfeld, Sabine

    2016-07-01

    Attentional bias (AB) to threat is thought to play a key role in the development and maintenance of posttraumatic stress symptomatology (PTS). Empirical evidence though is inconsistent. Some studies report associations between AB towards, threat and PTS; other studies report associations between AB away from threat and PTS; yet other studies fail to find any association. We propose that prospective-longitudinal study of AB as a dynamic process, expressed from moment to moment in time, may help to understand these mixed findings and the role of AB in PTS. We tested cross-sectional and prospective-longitudinal associations between AB and PTS among German soldiers from pre- to post-deployment in Afghanistan (n = 144). AB to threat and positive emotion stimuli (angry/happy faces) was measured using the dot-probe task. PTS was assessed by the PTSD Checklist. The number of traumatic experiences was assessed using CIDI-traumatic experience lists for military. We found that AB dynamics (i.e., towards, away, temporal variability) at pre- and post-deployment, with respect to angry and happy faces, predicted higher levels of PTS after deployment as a function of number of intermediate traumatic experiences. Traditional aggregated mean bias scores did not similarly prospectively predict PTS post deployment. Findings indicate that AB to emotionally arousing stimuli may play an important function in the development and maintenance of PTS. We argue that mixed and null findings appear to be due to failure to model the within-subject temporal variability in AB expression. Theoretical, empirical, and clinical implications of these findings are discussed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Elevated left mid-frontal cortical activity prospectively predicts conversion to bipolar I disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nusslock, Robin; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Alloy, Lauren B.; Urosevic, Snezana; Goldstein, Kim; Abramson, Lyn Y.

    2013-01-01

    Bipolar disorder is characterized by a hypersensitivity to reward-relevant cues and a propensity to experience an excessive increase in approach-related affect, which may be reflected in hypo/manic symptoms. The present study examined the relationship between relative left-frontal electroencephalographic (EEG) activity, a proposed neurophysiological index of approach-system sensitivity and approach/reward-related affect, and bipolar course and state-related variables. Fifty-eight individuals with cyclothymia or bipolar II disorder and 59 healthy control participants with no affective psychopathology completed resting EEG recordings. Alpha power was obtained and asymmetry indices computed for homologous electrodes. Bipolar spectrum participants were classified as being in a major/minor depressive episode, a hypomanic episode, or a euthymic/remitted state at EEG recording. Participants were then followed prospectively for an average 4.7 year follow-up period with diagnostic interview assessments every four-months. Sixteen bipolar spectrum participants converted to bipolar I disorder during follow-up. Consistent with hypotheses, elevated relative left-frontal EEG activity at baseline 1) prospectively predicted a greater likelihood of converting from cyclothymia or bipolar II disorder to bipolar I disorder over the 4.7 year follow-up period, 2) was associated with an earlier age-of-onset of first bipolar spectrum episode, and 3) was significantly elevated in bipolar spectrum individuals in a hypomanic episode at EEG recording. This is the first study to identify a neurophysiological marker that prospectively predicts conversion to bipolar I disorder. The fact that unipolar depression is characterized by decreased relative left-frontal EEG activity suggests that unipolar depression and vulnerability to hypo/mania may be characterized by different profiles of frontal EEG asymmetry. PMID:22775582

  8. Elevated left mid-frontal cortical activity prospectively predicts conversion to bipolar I disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nusslock, Robin; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Alloy, Lauren B; Urosevic, Snezana; Goldstein, Kim; Abramson, Lyn Y

    2012-08-01

    Bipolar disorder is characterized by a hypersensitivity to reward-relevant cues and a propensity to experience an excessive increase in approach-related affect, which may be reflected in hypo/manic symptoms. The present study examined the relationship between relative left-frontal electroencephalographic (EEG) activity, a proposed neurophysiological index of approach-system sensitivity and approach/reward-related affect, and bipolar course and state-related variables. Fifty-eight individuals with cyclothymia or bipolar II disorder and 59 healthy control participants with no affective psychopathology completed resting EEG recordings. Alpha power was obtained and asymmetry indices computed for homologous electrodes. Bipolar spectrum participants were classified as being in a major/minor depressive episode, a hypomanic episode, or a euthymic/remitted state at EEG recording. Participants were then followed prospectively for an average 4.7-year follow-up period with diagnostic interview assessments every 4 months. Sixteen bipolar spectrum participants converted to bipolar I disorder during follow-up. Consistent with hypotheses, elevated relative left-frontal EEG activity at baseline (a) prospectively predicted a greater likelihood of converting from cyclothymia or bipolar II disorder to bipolar I disorder over the 4.7-year follow-up period, (b) was associated with an earlier age-of-onset of first bipolar spectrum episode, and (c) was significantly elevated in bipolar spectrum individuals in a hypomanic episode at EEG recording. This is the first study to our knowledge to identify a neurophysiological marker that prospectively predicts conversion to bipolar I disorder. The fact that unipolar depression is characterized by decreased relative left-frontal EEG activity suggests that unipolar depression and vulnerability to hypo/mania may be characterized by different profiles of frontal EEG asymmetry.

  9. Sensitivity Analysis of Wavelet Neural Network Model for Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinxing Shen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve a more accurate and robust traffic volume prediction model, the sensitivity of wavelet neural network model (WNNM is analyzed in this study. Based on real loop detector data which is provided by traffic police detachment of Maanshan, WNNM is discussed with different numbers of input neurons, different number of hidden neurons, and traffic volume for different time intervals. The test results show that the performance of WNNM depends heavily on network parameters and time interval of traffic volume. In addition, the WNNM with 4 input neurons and 6 hidden neurons is the optimal predictor with more accuracy, stability, and adaptability. At the same time, a much better prediction record will be achieved with the time interval of traffic volume are 15 minutes. In addition, the optimized WNNM is compared with the widely used back-propagation neural network (BPNN. The comparison results indicated that WNNM produce much lower values of MAE, MAPE, and VAPE than BPNN, which proves that WNNM performs better on short-term traffic volume prediction.

  10. Predicting Early Fatherhood and Whether Young Fathers Live with Their Children: Prospective Findings and Policy Recommendations. Discussion Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffee, Sara R.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Taylor, Alan; Dickson, Nigel

    This prospective, birth cohort study addressed three questions: Which individual and family-of-origin characteristics predict the age at which young men make the transition to fatherhood? Do these characteristics predict how long young men live with their children? Are individual differences in the amount of time fathers spend living with their…

  11. Prediction of Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Academic Success in Entering Graduate Education by Using Back-Propagation Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahadir, Elif

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine a neural network based approach to predict achievement in graduate education for Elementary Mathematics prospective teachers. With the help of this study, it can be possible to make an effective prediction regarding the students' achievement in graduate education with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two…

  12. A prediction model of radiation-induced necrosis for intracranial radiosurgery based on target volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Bo; Wen, Ning; Chetty, Indrin J; Huang, Yimei; Brown, Stephen L; Snyder, Karen C; Siddiqui, Farzan; Movsas, Benjamin; Siddiqui, M Salim

    2017-08-01

    This study aims to extend the observation that the 12 Gy-radiosurgical-volume (V12Gy) correlates with the incidence of radiation necrosis in patients with intracranial tumors treated with radiosurgery by using target volume to predict V12Gy. V12Gy based on the target volume was used to predict the radiation necrosis probability (P) directly. Also investigated was the reduction in radiation necrosis rates (ΔP) as a result of optimizing the prescription isodose lines for linac-based SRS. Twenty concentric spherical targets and 22 patients with brain tumors were retrospectively studied. For each case, a standard clinical plan and an optimized plan with prescription isodose lines based on gradient index were created. V12Gy were extracted from both plans to analyze the correlation between V12Gy and target volume. The necrosis probability P as a function of V12Gy was evaluated. To account for variation in prescription, the relation between V12Gy and prescription was also investigated. A prediction model for radiation-induced necrosis was presented based on the retrospective study. The model directly relates the typical prescribed dose and the target volume to the radionecrosis probability; V12Gy increased linearly with the target volume (R(2)  > 0.99). The linear correlation was then integrated into a logistic model to predict P directly from the target volume. The change in V12Gy as a function of prescription was modeled using a single parameter, s (=-1.15). Relatively large ΔP was observed for target volumes between 7 and 28 cm(3) with the maximum reduction (8-9%) occurring at approximately 18 cm(3) . Based on the model results, optimizing the prescription isodose line for target volumes between 7 and 28 cm(3) results in a significant reduction in necrosis probability. V12Gy based on the target volume could provide clinicians a predictor of radiation necrosis at the contouring stage thus facilitating treatment decisions. © 2017 American Association of

  13. Anterior cingulate volume predicts response to cognitive behavioral therapy in major depressive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujino, Junya; Yamasaki, Nobuyuki; Miyata, Jun; Sasaki, Hitoshi; Matsukawa, Noriko; Takemura, Ariyoshi; Tei, Shisei; Sugihara, Genichi; Aso, Toshihiko; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Takahashi, Hidehiko; Inoue, Kazuomi; Murai, Toshiya

    2015-03-15

    Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) is widely used to treat major depressive disorder (MDD). Although improved response prediction could facilitate the development of individualized treatment plans, few studies have investigated whether underlying brain structure is related to CBT response in MDD. Ten MDD patients who received individual CBT were studied in this study. We investigated the relationship between the regional gray matter (GM) volume and subsequent responses to CBT using voxel-based morphometry. The degree of improvement in depressive symptoms was positively correlated with GM volume in the caudal portion of the anterior cingulate cortex. The sample size was small, and the effects of medication on the results could not be excluded. Our results, although preliminary, suggest that the anterior cingulate cortex is a key structure whose volume can be used to predict responses to CBT and is thus a potential prognostic marker in MDD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Age-associated losses of brain volume predict longitudinal cognitive declines over 8 to 20 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabbitt, Patrick; Ibrahim, Said; Lunn, Mary; Scott, Marietta; Thacker, Neil; Hutchinson, Charles; Horan, Michael; Pendleton, Neil; Jackson, Alan

    2008-01-01

    Absolute differences in global brain volume predict differences in cognitive ability among healthy older adults. However, absolute differences confound lifelong differences in brain size with amounts of age-related shrinkage. Measurements of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) volume were made to estimate age-related shrinkage in 93 healthy volunteers aged 63 to 86 years. Their current levels of brain shrinkage predicted their amounts of decline over the previous 8 to 20 years on repeated assessments during a longitudinal study on the Cattell "Culture Fair" Intelligence Test, on two tests of information processing speed, and marginally on the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (D. Wechsler, 1981), but not on three memory tests. Loss of brain volume is an effective marker both for current cognitive status and for amounts and rates of previous age-related cognitive losses.

  15. Prediction of sonic boom from experimental near-field overpressure data. Volume 2: Data base construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glatt, C. R.; Reiners, S. J.; Hague, D. S.

    1975-01-01

    A computerized method for storing, updating and augmenting experimentally determined overpressure signatures has been developed. A data base of pressure signatures for a shuttle type vehicle has been stored. The data base has been used for the prediction of sonic boom with the program described in Volume I.

  16. PREDICTION OF THE MIXING ENTHALPIES OF BINARY LIQUID ALLOYS BY MOLECULAR INTERACTION VOLUME MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    H.W.Yang; D.P.Tao; Z.H.Zhou

    2008-01-01

    The mixing enthalpies of 23 binary liquid alloys are calculated by molecular interaction volume model (MIVM), which is a two-parameter model with the partial molar infinite dilute mixing enthalpies. The predicted values are in agreement with the experimental data and then indicate that the model is reliable and convenient.

  17. Is it possible to predict low-volume and insignificant prostate cancer by core needle biopsies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Kasper Drimer; Toft, Birgitte Grønkaer; Røder, Martin Andreas;

    2013-01-01

    M: tumour ≤5% of total prostate volume and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤10 ng/mL. In all definitions, Gleason score (GS) was ≤6 and the tumour was organ confined. Biopsies alone performed poorly as a predictor of unifocal and unilateral cancer in the prostatectomy specimens with positive predictive...

  18. Amniotic fluid index and estimated fetal weight for prediction of fetal macrosomia: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Khouly, Nabih I; Elkelani, Osama A; Saleh, Said A

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the value of combining the estimated fetal weight (EFW) and amniotic fluid index (AFI) measured in term patients early in labor with intact membranes for prediction of macrosomia. In a single center, prospective observational study, 600 patients in the first stage of labor before rupture of membranes in whom ultrasonography was performed to measure AFI and EFW, and these data were analyzed statistically to evaluate prediction of fetal macrosomia. Macrosomia occurred in 64 cases (10.6%). The AFI was significantly higher in the macrosomic group (p = 0.001). It was noted that the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for EFW was 0.93 and that of AFI was 0.67. Based on suggested combined EFW and AFI cutoffs of 4000 g and 164 mm, respectively, the positive predictive value (PPV) for combined parameters (92.3%) was higher than that of EFW (75%) and that of AFI (27%) and the likelihood ratio for combination (93.7%) was higher than that of EFW (24.7%) and that of AFI (21%). Combined use of EFW and AFI improves prediction of macrosomia at birth rather than the EFW alone.

  19. Prospective validation of two models predicting pregnancy leading to live birth among untreated subfertile couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunault, Claudine C; Laven, Joop S E; van Rooij, Ilse A J; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; te Velde, Egbert R; Habbema, J Dik F

    2005-06-01

    Models predicting clinical outcome need external validation before they can be applied safely in daily practice. This study aimed to validate two models for the prediction of the chance of treatment-independent pregnancy leading to live birth among subfertile couples. The first model uses the woman's age, duration and type of subfertility, percentage of progressive sperm motility and referral status. The second model in addition uses the result of the post-coital test (PCT). For validation, these characteristics were collected prospectively in two University hospitals for 302 couples consulting for subfertility. The models' ability to distinguish between women who became pregnant and women who did not (discrimination) and the agreement between predicted and observed probabilities of treatment-independent pregnancy (calibration) were assessed. The discrimination of both models was slightly lower in the validation sample than in the original sample which provided the model. Calibration was good: the observed and predicted probabilities of treatment-independent pregnancy leading to live birth did not differ for both models. The chance of pregnancy leading to live birth was reliably estimated in the validation sample by both models. The use of PCT improved the discrimination of the models. These models can be useful in counselling subfertile couples.

  20. Infarct volume predicts critical care needs in stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faigle, Roland; Marsh, Elisabeth B.; Llinas, Rafael H.; Urrutia, Victor C. [Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Neurology, Baltimore, MD (United States); Wozniak, Amy W. [Johns Hopkins University, Department of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (United States)

    2014-10-26

    Patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (IVT) for ischemic stroke are monitored in an intensive care unit (ICU) or a comparable unit capable of ICU interventions due to the high frequency of standardized neurological exams and vital sign checks. The present study evaluates quantitative infarct volume on early post-IVT MRI as a predictor of critical care needs and aims to identify patients who may not require resource intense monitoring. We identified 46 patients who underwent MRI within 6 h of IVT. Infarct volume was measured using semiautomated software. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis were used to determine factors associated with ICU needs. Infarct volume was an independent predictor of ICU need after adjusting for age, sex, race, systolic blood pressure, NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and coronary artery disease (odds ratio 1.031 per cm{sup 3} increase in volume, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.004-1.058, p = 0.024). The ROC curve with infarct volume alone achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.766 (95 % CI 0.605-0.927), while the AUC was 0.906 (95 % CI 0.814-0.998) after adjusting for race, systolic blood pressure, and NIHSS. Maximum Youden index calculations identified an optimal infarct volume cut point of 6.8 cm{sup 3} (sensitivity 75.0 %, specificity 76.7 %). Infarct volume greater than 3 cm{sup 3} predicted need for critical care interventions with 81.3 % sensitivity and 66.7 % specificity. Infarct volume may predict needs for ICU monitoring and interventions in stroke patients treated with IVT. (orig.)

  1. Estimation of clinically significant prostate volumes by digital rectal examination: a comparative prospective study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ahmad, Sarfraz

    2011-12-01

    Reliable quantification of prostate volume is important to correctly select patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) most likely to benefit from medical therapy [e.g. 5 alpha-reductase inhibitors (5-ARIs)] and in selecting appropriate surgical approach. We aim to determine the reliability of digital rectal examination (DRE) in estimation of prostate volume which may be helpful in patient selection for 5-ARIs therapy.

  2. Does cognitive functioning predict chronic pain? Results from a prospective surgical cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attal, Nadine; Masselin-Dubois, Anne; Martinez, Valéria; Jayr, Christian; Albi, Aline; Fermanian, Jacques; Bouhassira, Didier; Baudic, Sophie

    2014-03-01

    It is well established that chronic pain impairs cognition, particularly memory, attention and mental flexibility. Overlaps have been found between the brain regions involved in pain modulation and cognition, including in particular the prefrontal cortex and the anterior cingulate cortex, which are involved in executive function, attention and memory. However, whether cognitive function may predict chronic pain has not been investigated. We addressed this question in surgical patients, because such patients can be followed prospectively and may have no pain before surgery. In this prospective longitudinal study, we investigated the links between executive function, visual memory and attention, as assessed by clinical measurements and the development of chronic pain, its severity and neuropathic symptoms (based on the 'Douleur Neuropathique 4' questionnaire), 6 and 12 months after surgery (total knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis or breast surgery for cancer). Neuropsychological tests included the Trail-Making Test A and B, and the Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure copy and immediate recall, which assess cognitive flexibility, visuospatial processing and visual memory. Anxiety, depression and coping strategies were also evaluated. In total, we investigated 189 patients before surgery: 96% were re-evaluated at 6 months, and 88% at 12 months. Multivariate logistic regression (stepwise selection) for the total group of patients indicated that the presence of clinical meaningful pain at 6 and 12 months (pain intensity ≥ 3/10) was predicted by poorer cognitive performance in the Trail Making Test B (P = 0.0009 and 0.02 for pain at 6 and 12 months, respectively), Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure copy (P = 0.015 and 0.006 for pain at 6 and 12 months, respectively) and recall (P = 0.016 for pain at 12 months), independently of affective variables. Linear regression analyses indicated that impaired scores on these tests predicted pain intensity (P executive functioning or

  3. Economies of scale, physician volume for urology patients, and DRG prospective hospital payment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, E; Boiardo, R; Mulloy, K; Goldstein, J; Brewster, J G; Wise, L

    1990-11-01

    Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) hospital payment has begun to squeeze hospitals financially and is likely to do so in the future. This study analyzed the relationship between the volume of urologic procedures by an individual urologist, hospital costs per patient, and outcome. We used a three-year DRG database of urology patients (N = 2,980) at an academic medical center to analyze these. Low-volume urologists (arbitrarily defined by us) had higher hospital costs per patient, financial losses versus profits under DRGs, and a poorer outcome when compared with high-volume urologists. Pearson correlation showed a positive relationship between cost per patient and physician volume for nonemergency patients (-0.129, p less than 0.0001) and emergency patients (-0.368, p less than 0.0001). This may have been explained (in part) by a greater severity of illness for patients of low-volume urologists. These findings suggest, however, that the volume of urologic procedures per urologist may be related to hospital resource consumption. The health care financing environment of the future should provide substantial interest in this finding for those involved in the consumption of urologic services.

  4. Monitoring Central Venous Catheter Resistance to Predict Imminent Occlusion: A Prospective Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Joshua; Tang, Li; Rubnitz, Jeffrey E; Brennan, Rachel C; Shook, David R; Stokes, Dennis C; Monagle, Paul; Curtis, Nigel; Worth, Leon J; Allison, Kim; Sun, Yilun; Flynn, Patricia M

    2015-01-01

    Long-term central venous catheters are essential for the management of chronic medical conditions, including childhood cancer. Catheter occlusion is associated with an increased risk of subsequent complications, including bloodstream infection, venous thrombosis, and catheter fracture. Therefore, predicting and pre-emptively treating occlusions should prevent complications, but no method for predicting such occlusions has been developed. We conducted a prospective trial to determine the feasibility, acceptability, and efficacy of catheter-resistance monitoring, a novel approach to predicting central venous catheter occlusion in pediatric patients. Participants who had tunneled catheters and were receiving treatment for cancer or undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation underwent weekly catheter-resistance monitoring for up to 12 weeks. Resistance was assessed by measuring the inline pressure at multiple flow-rates via a syringe pump system fitted with a pressure-sensing transducer. When turbulent flow through the device was evident, resistance was not estimated, and the result was noted as "non-laminar." Ten patients attended 113 catheter-resistance monitoring visits. Elevated catheter resistance (>8.8% increase) was strongly associated with the subsequent development of acute catheter occlusion within 10 days (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-21.5; p change in resistance greater than 8.8% or a non-laminar result predicted subsequent occlusion (odds ratio = 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-22.8; p = 0.002; sensitivity, 80%; specificity, 63%). Participants rated catheter-resistance monitoring as highly acceptable. In this pediatric hematology and oncology population, catheter-resistance monitoring is feasible, acceptable, and predicts imminent catheter occlusion. Larger studies are required to validate these findings, assess the predictive value for other clinical outcomes, and determine the impact of pre-emptive therapy. Clinicaltrials

  5. Performance Prediction Modelling for Flexible Pavement on Low Volume Roads Using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Makendran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction models for low volume village roads in India are developed to evaluate the progression of different types of distress such as roughness, cracking, and potholes. Even though the Government of India is investing huge quantum of money on road construction every year, poor control over the quality of road construction and its subsequent maintenance is leading to the faster road deterioration. In this regard, it is essential that scientific maintenance procedures are to be evolved on the basis of performance of low volume flexible pavements. Considering the above, an attempt has been made in this research endeavor to develop prediction models to understand the progression of roughness, cracking, and potholes in flexible pavements exposed to least or nil routine maintenance. Distress data were collected from the low volume rural roads covering about 173 stretches spread across Tamil Nadu state in India. Based on the above collected data, distress prediction models have been developed using multiple linear regression analysis. Further, the models have been validated using independent field data. It can be concluded that the models developed in this study can serve as useful tools for the practicing engineers maintaining flexible pavements on low volume roads.

  6. Narcissism and Callous-Unemotional Traits Prospectively Predict Child Conduct Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jezior, Kristen L; McKenzie, Meghan E; Lee, Steve S

    2016-01-01

    Although narcissism and callous-unemotional (CU) traits are separable facets of psychopathy, their independent prediction of conduct problems (CP) among young children is not well known. In addition, above-average IQ was central to the original conceptualization of psychopathy, yet IQ is typically inversely associated with youth CP. We examined narcissism and CU traits as independent and prospective predictors of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), conduct disorder (CD), and youth self-reported antisocial behavior, as well as their moderation by IQ. At baseline, parents and teachers separately rated narcissism and CU traits in 188 6-to-10-year-old children (47.9% non-White; 69.1% male; M = 7.34 years, SD = 1.09) with (n = 99) and without (n = 89) attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Approximately 2 years later, parents and teachers separately rated youth ODD and CD symptoms, and youth self-reported antisocial behavior. With control of baseline ADHD and ODD/CD symptoms, narcissism and CU traits independently and positively predicted ODD and CD symptoms at follow-up. IQ did not moderate any CP predictions from baseline narcissism or CU traits. These preliminary findings suggest that individual differences in narcissism and CU traits, even relatively early in development, are uniquely associated with emergent CP. Findings are considered within a developmental framework and the multiple pathways underlying the heterogeneity of CP are discussed.

  7. Accuracy of Fall Prediction in Parkinson Disease: Six-Month and 12-Month Prospective Analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan P. Duncan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. We analyzed the ability of four balance assessments to predict falls in people with Parkinson Disease (PD prospectively over six and 12 months. Materials and Methods. The BESTest, Mini-BESTest, Functional Gait Assessment (FGA, and Berg Balance Scale (BBS were administered to 80 participants with idiopathic PD at baseline. Falls were then tracked for 12 months. Ability of each test to predict falls at six and 12 months was assessed using ROC curves and likelihood ratios (LR. Results. Twenty-seven percent of the sample had fallen at six months, and 32% of the sample had fallen at 12 months. At six months, areas under the ROC curve (AUC for the tests ranged from 0.8 (FGA to 0.89 (BESTest with LR+ of 3.4 (FGA to 5.8 (BESTest. At 12 months, AUCs ranged from 0.68 (BESTest, BBS to 0.77 (Mini-BESTest with LR+ of 1.8 (BESTest to 2.4 (BBS, FGA. Discussion. The various balance tests were effective in predicting falls at six months. All tests were relatively ineffective at 12 months. Conclusion. This pilot study suggests that people with PD should be assessed biannually for fall risk.

  8. Predictive factors for pregnancy after intrauterine insemination: A prospective study of factors affecting outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohan S Kamath

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective : To determine the predictive factors for pregnancy after controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH/intrauterine insemination (IUI. Design : Prospective observational study. Setting : University-level tertiary care center. Patients and Methods : 366 patients undergoing 480 stimulated IUI cycles between November 2007 and December 2008. Interventions : Ovarian stimulation with gonadotrophins was initiated and a single IUI was performed 36 h after triggering ovulation. Main Outcome Measures : The primary outcome measures were clinical pregnancy and live birth rates. Predictive factors evaluated were female age, duration of infertility, indication for IUI, number of preovulatory follicles, luteinizing hormone level on day of trigger and postwash total motile fraction (TMF. Results : The overall clinical pregnancy rate and live birth rate were 8.75% and 5.83%, respectively. Among the predictive factors evaluated, the duration of infertility (5.36 vs. 6.71 years, P = 0.032 and the TMF (between 10 and 20 million, P = 0.002 significantly influenced the clinical pregnancy rate. Conclusion : Our results indicate that COH/IUI is not an effective option in couples with infertility due to a male factor. Prolonged duration of infertility is also associated with decreased success, and should be considered when planning treatment.

  9. Predictive Factors of Superior Mediastinal Nodal Metastasis from Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma--A Prospective Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joo Hyun Woo

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the incidence rates and predictive factors of superior mediastinal lymph node (SMLN metastasis in PTC (papillary thyroid carcinoma patients.A prospective observational study was performed between January 2009 and January 2011. PTC patients who had tumors with a maximal diameter greater than 1 cm and clinically negative SMLNs were included in this study. Finally, a total of 217 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy with central compartment neck dissection (CND and elective superior mediastinal lymph node dissection (SMLND, with or without modified radical neck dissection (MRND and revisional CND, were included.Occult SMLN metastasis was present in 15.7% (34/217. Cytological classifications of tumor, BRAFV600E mutation, Tumor size, T-stage, perithyroidal extension, lymphovascular invasion, multifocality, and paratracheal pN(+ were not predictive of SMLN metastasis (P > .05, while revision surgery, pretracheal pN(+, and multiple lateral pN(+ were associated with SMLN metastasis. There were no major complications related to SMLND. Transient and permanent hypoparathyroidism was observed in 69 cases (31.8% and 8 cases (3.6%, respectively.Despite clinically negative SMLN in preoperative evaluation, SMLN metastasis can be predicted for patients with a PTC tumor size larger than 1 cm, pretracheal LN metastasis, multiple lateral metastasis, and revisional surgery.

  10. Prediction of severe neonatal hyperbilirubinemia using cord blood hydrogen peroxide: a prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Chieh Chou

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that cord blood hydrogen peroxide (H2O2 could be utilized to predict the severity of neonatal hyperbilirubinemia. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled term or near-term healthy neonates. Cord blood and capillary blood at three days of age were measured for hydrogen peroxide and bilirubin concentrations. For newborns with hyperbilirubinemia, further blood samples were obtained at five and seven days of age. Newborns were divided into severe or less severe hyperbilirubinemic groups (peak bilirubin ≥17 mg/dL or not. The sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive values were determined. RESULTS: There were 158 neonates enrolled. The incidence of neonatal hyperbilirubinemia was 30.5% for a concentration ≥15 mg/dl. The rising patterns were similar among bilirubin concentrations and hydrogen peroxide levels during the first few days of life. There was a strong positive correlation between bilirubin concentrations and hydrogen peroxide levels after correlation analysis. The rate of severe hyperbilirubinemia was 13.3%. It revealed that a cord blood hydrogen peroxide signal level of 2500 counts/10 seconds was an appropriate cut-off for predicting severe hyperbilirubinemia. Sensitivity and the negative predictive value were 76.2% and 93.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirm that hydrogen peroxide levels and bilirubin concentrations in cord and neonatal blood are closely related. A cord blood hydrogen peroxide level above 2500 counts/10 seconds associated with a high predictive value for severe hyperbilirubinemia. This method provides information about which neonate should be closely followed after discharge from the nursery.

  11. A comparison of podocyturia, albuminuria and nephrinuria in predicting the development of preeclampsia: a prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda Jim

    Full Text Available Preeclampsia, a hypertensive multisystem disease that complicates 5-8% of all pregnancy, is a major cause for maternal and fetal mortality and morbidity. The disease is associated with increased spontaneous and evoked preterm birth and remote cardio-renal disorders in the mother and offspring. Thus the ability to predict the disease should lead to earlier care and decreased morbidity. This has led to fervent attempts to identify early predictive biomarkers and research endeavors that have expanded as we learn more regarding possible causes of the disease. As preeclampsia is associated with specific renal pathology including podocyte injury, early urinary podocyte (podocyturia, or the podocyte specific proteinuria nephrin in the urine (nephrinuria, as well as the more easily measured urinary albumin (albuminuria, have all been suggested as predictive markers. We performed a prospective study recruiting 91 pregnant women (78 of whom were high risk and studied the predictive ability of these three urinary biomarkers. The subjects were recruited between 15-38 weeks of gestation. Fourteen patients, all in the high-risk obstetric group, developed preeclampsia. The levels of podocyturia, nephrinuria, and albuminuria were variably higher in the high-risk pregnant patients who developed preeclampsia. The sensitivities and specificities for podocyturia were 70% and 43%, for albuminuria were 36% and 96%, and for nephrinuria were 57% and 58%, respectively. Also, abnormal nephrinuria (69% and podocyturia (38% were detected in low risk women who had uncomplicated gestations; none of these women exhibited albuminuria. In our study, none of the three urinary markers achieved the minimum predictive values required for clinical testing. The lack of excessive albuminuria, however, may indicate a preeclampsia-free gestation. Given a discrepant literature, further studies with larger sample size should be considered.

  12. Brain volume reduction predicts weight development in adolescent patients with anorexia nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seitz, Jochen; Walter, Martin; Mainz, Verena; Herpertz-Dahlmann, Beate; Konrad, Kerstin; von Polier, Georg

    2015-09-01

    Acute anorexia nervosa (AN) is associated with marked brain volume loss potentially leading to neuropsychological deficits. However, the mechanisms leading to this brain volume loss and its influencing factors are poorly understood and the clinical relevance of these brain alterations for the outcome of these AN-patients is yet unknown. Brain volumes of 56 female adolescent AN inpatients and 50 healthy controls (HCs) were measured using MRI scans. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to determine the impact of body weight at admission, prior weight loss, age of onset and illness duration on volume loss at admission and to analyse the association of brain volume reduction with body weight at a 1-year follow-up (N = 25). Cortical and subcortical grey matter (GM) and cortical white matter (WM) but not cerebellar GM or WM were associated with low weight at admission. Amount of weight loss, age of onset and illness duration did not independently correlate with any volume changes. Prediction of age-adjusted standardized body mass index (BMI-SDS) at 1-year follow-up could be significantly improved from 34% of variance explained by age and BMI-SDS at admission to 47.5-53% after adding cortical WM, cerebellar GM or WM at time of admission. Whereas cortical GM changes appear to be an unspecific reflection of current body weight ("state marker"), cortical WM and cerebellar volume losses seem to indicate a longer-term risk (trait or "scar" of the illness), which appear to be important for the prediction of weight rehabilitation and long-term outcome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Prediction of traffic fatalities and prospects for mobility becoming sustainable-safe

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Matthijs J Koornstra

    2007-08-01

    The macroscopic trend of road traffic fatalities in any motorized country is described and predicted by the product of rather well fitting functions of time for the exponential decay of fatality risk per unit of traffic volume and the S-shaped Gompertz function of traffic volume growth. This product defines a single-peaked development of road traffic deaths, where its peak reaches earlier the sooner and faster a nation or region motorizes massively. Since in developing countries long series of traffic volume data are absent, another model for the fit and prediction of road traffic fatalities for developing countries is used, based on the relationships of income level per capita with road traffic mortality. Also this model implies that at some point in time road traffic deaths will start declining for ever, also worldwide. After empirically derived corrections for missing or incomplete data and police under-reporting, it is estimated that 1·2 million deaths and almost 8 million serious injuries are caused by road traffic worldwide in 2000. Using realistic income level predictions the new income-dependent model predicts markedly later and higher fatality peaks than the verified time-dependent model. It might be assumed that the developing countries could learn faster to increase their road safety by knowledge transfer from developed countries. Four prediction scenarios are specified for modified income-dependent models of road traffic death and serious injury developments up to 2050. Depending on the scenario the world total of road fatalities begins to reduce soon or only after 2035 with a global peak of about 1·8 million road traffic deaths, where the national fatality reduction starts later the lower the national income per capita is. Without the potentially achievable learning scenario the road fatality reductions in developed countries may not be enough to compensate the road fatality increases in developing countries, while road fatality

  14. Prediction of volume fractions in three-phase flows using nuclear technique and artificial neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques Salgado, Cesar [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear, DIRA/IEN/CNEN, Rio de Janeiro, CEP.: 21945-970-Caixa Postal 68550 (Brazil)], E-mail: otero@ien.gov.br; Brandao, Luis E.B. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear, DIRA/IEN/CNEN, Rio de Janeiro, CEP.: 21945-970-Caixa Postal 68550 (Brazil); Schirru, Roberto [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, PEN/COPPE-DNC/EE-CT, Rio de Janeiro, CEP.: 21941-972-Caixa Postal 68509 (Brazil); Pereira, Claudio M.N.A. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear, DIRA/IEN/CNEN, Rio de Janeiro, CEP.: 21945-970-Caixa Postal 68550 (Brazil); Silva, Ademir Xavier da [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, PEN/COPPE-DNC/EE-CT, Rio de Janeiro, CEP.: 21941-972-Caixa Postal 68509 (Brazil); Ramos, Robson [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear, DIRA/IEN/CNEN, Rio de Janeiro, CEP.: 21945-970-Caixa Postal 68550 (Brazil)

    2009-10-15

    This work presents methodology based on nuclear technique and artificial neural network for volume fraction predictions in annular, stratified and homogeneous oil-water-gas regimes. Using principles of gamma-ray absorption and scattering together with an appropriate geometry, comprised of three detectors and a dual-energy gamma-ray source, it was possible to obtain data, which could be adequately correlated to the volume fractions of each phase by means of neural network. The MCNP-X code was used in order to provide the training data for the network.

  15. Predictive value of radioculography in patients with lumbago-sciatica. A prospective study (part 2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espersen, J.O.; Kosteljanetz, M. (University Hospital, Aarhus (Denmark). Dept. of Neurosurgery); Halaburt, H.; Miletic, T. (University Hospital, Aarhus (Denmark). Dept. of Neuroradiology)

    1984-01-01

    One hundred patients with symptoms of lumbo-sacral root compression were prospectively and consecutively assigned to operation based alone on clinical findings. A preoperative myelogram was performed in all patients and described without a knowledge of the clinical features. All patients were explored for the clinically and myelographically relevant disc. When the myelogram was normal (16 patients) both lower lumbar interspaces were exposed. In 58 patients a herniated disc was revealed at surgery. Only 'myelographic herniation' with indentation of the contrast column was accompanied by a high frequency of disc herniation at surgery (73-87%). In cases with normal myelograms only 5% had a disc herniation. The severity of the myelographic finding was clearly correlated to the frequency of positive surgical findings and good outcomes. The preoperative radiculogram gives a high degree of certainty in the preoperative evaluation whether a surgical lesion is present or not and reveals a precise prediction of the outcome of surgery.

  16. A predictive nondestructive model for the covariation of tree height, diameter, and stem volume scaling relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongrui; Zhong, Quanlin; Niklas, Karl J.; Cai, Liang; Yang, Yusheng; Cheng, Dongliang

    2016-08-01

    Metabolic scaling theory (MST) posits that the scaling exponents among plant height H, diameter D, and biomass M will covary across phyletically diverse species. However, the relationships between scaling exponents and normalization constants remain unclear. Therefore, we developed a predictive model for the covariation of H, D, and stem volume V scaling relationships and used data from Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) in Jiangxi province, China to test it. As predicted by the model and supported by the data, normalization constants are positively correlated with their associated scaling exponents for D vs. V and H vs. V, whereas normalization constants are negatively correlated with the scaling exponents of H vs. D. The prediction model also yielded reliable estimations of V (mean absolute percentage error = 10.5 ± 0.32 SE across 12 model calibrated sites). These results (1) support a totally new covariation scaling model, (2) indicate that differences in stem volume scaling relationships at the intra-specific level are driven by anatomical or ecophysiological responses to site quality and/or management practices, and (3) provide an accurate non-destructive method for predicting Chinese fir stem volume.

  17. A predictive nondestructive model for the covariation of tree height, diameter, and stem volume scaling relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongrui; Zhong, Quanlin; Niklas, Karl J; Cai, Liang; Yang, Yusheng; Cheng, Dongliang

    2016-08-24

    Metabolic scaling theory (MST) posits that the scaling exponents among plant height H, diameter D, and biomass M will covary across phyletically diverse species. However, the relationships between scaling exponents and normalization constants remain unclear. Therefore, we developed a predictive model for the covariation of H, D, and stem volume V scaling relationships and used data from Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) in Jiangxi province, China to test it. As predicted by the model and supported by the data, normalization constants are positively correlated with their associated scaling exponents for D vs. V and H vs. V, whereas normalization constants are negatively correlated with the scaling exponents of H vs. D. The prediction model also yielded reliable estimations of V (mean absolute percentage error = 10.5 ± 0.32 SE across 12 model calibrated sites). These results (1) support a totally new covariation scaling model, (2) indicate that differences in stem volume scaling relationships at the intra-specific level are driven by anatomical or ecophysiological responses to site quality and/or management practices, and (3) provide an accurate non-destructive method for predicting Chinese fir stem volume.

  18. 3D quantification of microclimate volume in layered clothing for the prediction of clothing insulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yejin; Hong, Kyunghi; Hong, Sung-Ae

    2007-05-01

    Garment fit and resultant air volume is a crucial factor in thermal insulation, and yet, it has been difficult to quantify the air volume of clothing microclimate and relate it to the thermal insulation value just using the information on the size of clothing pattern without actual 3D volume measurement in wear condition. As earlier methods for the computation of air volume in clothing microclimate, vacuum over suit and circumference model have been used. However, these methods have inevitable disadvantages in terms of cost or accuracy due to the limitations of measurement equipment. In this paper, the phase-shifting moiré topography was introduced as one of the 3D scanning tools to measure the air volume of clothing microclimate quantitatively. The purpose of this research is to adopt a non-contact image scanning technology, phase-shifting moiré topography, to ascertain relationship between air volume and insulation value of layered clothing systems in wear situations where the 2D fabric creates new conditions in 3D spaces. The insulation of vests over shirts as a layered clothing system was measured with a thermal manikin in the environmental condition of 20 degrees C, 65% RH and air velocity of 0.79 m/s. As the pattern size increased, the insulation of the clothing system was increased. But beyond a certain limit, the insulation started to decrease due to convection and ventilation, which is more apparent when only the vest was worn over the torso of manikin. The relationship between clothing air volume and insulation was difficult to predict with a single vest due to the extreme openings which induced active ventilation. But when the vest was worn over the shirt, the effects of thickness of the fabrics on insulation were less pronounced compared with that of air volume. In conclusion, phase-shifting moiré topography was one of the efficient and accurate ways of quantifying air volume and its distribution across the clothing microclimate. It is also noted

  19. Prospective Analysis on the Relation between Pain and Prostate Volume during Transrectal Prostate Biopsy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Tae Jin; Lee, Hak Jong; Kim, Seung Hyup; Lee, Sang Eun; Byun, Seok Soo; Hong, Sung Kyu; Cho, Jeong Yeon; Seong, Chang Kyu [Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-06-15

    We wanted to assess the relationship between pain and the prostate volume during transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) guided biopsy. Between July and September 2006, 71 patients scheduled for TRUS biopsy of the prostate were considered for inclusion to this study. These patients underwent periprostatic neurovascular bundle block with lidocaine prior to biopsy. Pain was assessed using a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) during periprostatic neurovascular bundle block (VAS 1), during biopsy (VAS 2), and 20 minutes after biopsy (VAS 3). The mean pain scores were analyzed in the large prostate group (prostate volume > 40 cc) and the small prostate group (prostate volume {<=} 40 cc). P values < 0.05 were considered significant. The mean prostate volume was 42.2 cc (standard deviation: 8.6). The mean pain scores of VAS 1, 2 and 3 were 4.70 {+-} 1.61, 3.15 {+-}2.44 and 1.05 {+-} 1.51, respectively. In the large prostate group, the mean pains scores of VAS 1, 2 and 3 were 4.75 {+-} 1.76, 3.51 {+-} 2.76 and 1.29 {+-} 1.70, respectively, whereas in the small prostate group, the means pain scores were 4.66 {+-} 1.46, 2.77 {+-} 2.0, and 0.80 {+-} 1.26, respectively. Although there were no statistical differences of VAS 1, the larger prostate group revealed higher pain scores of VAS 2 and 3 compared with the small prostate group (p < 0.05). Patients with larger prostate volumes tend to feel more pain during and after TRUS guided prostate biopsy. Our findings suggest that additional analgesic strategies may be necessary when the patients with larger prostate undergo TRUS guided prostate biopsy.

  20. The prediction of difficult intubation in obese patients using mirror indirect laryngoscopy: A prospective pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arne O Budde

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The incidence of difficult laryngoscopy and intubation in obese patients is higher than in the general population. Classical predictors of difficult laryngoscopy and intubation have been shown to be unreliable. We prospectively evaluated indirect mirror laryngoscopy as a predictor of difficult laryngoscopy in obese patients. Materials and Methods: 60 patients with a body mass index (BMI greater than 30, scheduled to undergo general anesthesia, were enrolled. Indirect mirror laryngoscopy was performed and was graded 1-4 according to Cormack and Lehane. A view of grade 3-4 was classified as predicting difficult laryngoscopy. Additional assessments for comparison were the Samsoon and Young modification of the Mallampati airway classification, Wilson Risk Sum Score, neck circumference, and BMI. The view obtained upon direct laryngoscopy after induction of general anesthesia was classified according to Cormack and Lehane as grade 1-4. Results: Sixty patients met the inclusion criteria; however, 8 (13.3% patients had an excessive gag reflex, and examination of the larynx was not possible. 15.4% of patients who underwent direct laryngoscopy had a Cormack and Lehane grade 3 or 4 view and were classified as difficult. Mirror laryngoscopy had a tendency toward statistical significance in predicting difficult laryngoscopy in these patients. Conclusions: This study is consistent with previous studies, which have demonstrated that no one individual traditional test has proven to be adequate in predicting difficult airways in the obese population. However, the new application of an old test - indirect mirror laryngoscopy - could be a useful additional test to predict difficult laryngoscopy in obese patients.

  1. The volume and pH of residual pharyngeal fluid aspirated from the TaperGuard Evac™ Endotracheal Tube following elective surgery: a prospective pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, R; Gandhi, P; Switkowski, K; Grant, M A B; Bonney, I

    2013-03-01

    Oropharyngeal suctioning prior to extubation aims to minimize postextubation tracheal soiling from remaining fluid. We investigated the amount and nature of any fluid remaining after such suctioning and contributing factors. ASA I - III patients undergoing elective surgery under general anesthesia with endotracheal intubation participated in this prospective observational pilot study. Following oropharyngeal suctioning immediately prior to extubation, a dedicated port of the endotracheal tube (TaperGuard Evac™ Endotracheal Tube) was aspirated. The amount and pH of residual fluid was recorded. Data collection included age, sex, body mass index, comorbidities, ASA status, procedure type and duration. The Chi-Square, Wilcoxon Rank-Sum, t-tests, and univariate regression analysis were used as appropriate. Ninety-eight patients completed the study. The mean aspirated volume in 38 (38.8%) patients was 0.9 ± 1.3 mL and sixty patients (61.2%) had no aspirate. A body mass index of ≥ 30 kg/m2 was associated with the presence of fluid (P=0.03), and a higher volume (P=0.03). The fluid pH was 7 ± 0.81 (mean ± SD). A duration of surgery ≥ 120 minutes predicted a lower pH. The prevalence and amount of residual fluid after oropharyngeal suctioning was low and likely clinically insignificant. A higher body mass index was associated with a higher incidence and volume of residual fluid. Longer procedure duration determined a slightly lower pH, with a mildly acidic pH range. The possibility of a lower fluid pH after prolonged surgery contributing to postoperative sore throat via mucosal irritation warrants investigation.

  2. Generalized nonlinear models applied to the prediction of basal area and volume of Eucalyptus sp

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel de Pádua Chaves e Carvalho

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to propose the use of generalized nonlinear models for prediction of basal area growth and yield of total volume of the hybrid Eucalyptus urocamaldulensis, in a stand situation in a central region in state of Minas Gerais. The used methodology allows to work with data in its original form without the necessity of transformation of variables, and generate highly accurate models. To evaluate the fitting quality, it was proposed the Bayesian information criterion, of the Akaike, and test the maximum likelihood, beyond the standard error of estimate, and residual graphics. The models were used with a good performance, highly accurate and parsimonious estimates of the variables proposed, with errors reduced to 12% for basal area and 4% for prediction of the volume.

  3. Prediction total specific pore volume of geopolymers produced from waste ashes by fuzzy logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Nazari

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In the present work, total specific pore volume of inorganic polymers (geopolymers made from seeded fly ash and rice husk bark ash has been predicted by fuzzy logic. Different specimens, made from a mixture of fly ash and rice husk bark ash in fine and coarse form together with alkali activator made of water glass and NaOH solution, were subjected to porosimetry tests at 7 and 28 days of curing. The curing regime was different: one set of the specimens were cured at room temperature until reaching to 7 and 28 days and the other sets were oven cured for 36 hours at the range of 40-90 °C and then cured at room temperature until 7 and 28 days. A model based on fuzzy logic for predicting the total specific pore volume of the specimens has been presented. To build the model, training and testing using experimental results from 120 specimens were conducted. The used data as the inputs of fuzzy logic models are arranged in a format of six parameters that cover the percentage of fine fly ash in the ashes mixture, the percentage of coarse fly ash in the ashes mixture, the percentage of fine rice husk bark ash in the ashes mixture, the percentage of coarse rice husk bark ash in the ashes mixture, the temperature of curing and the time of water curing. According to the input parameters, in the fuzzy logic model, the pore volume of each specimen was predicted. The training and testing results in the fuzzy logic model have shown a strong potential for predicting the total specific pore volume of the geopolymer specimens in the considered range.

  4. Long-term results of preventive embolization of renal angiomyolipomas: evaluation of predictive factors of volume decrease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hocquelet, A.; Cornelis, F.; Le Bras, Y.; Meyer, M.; Tricaud, E.; Lasserre, A.S.; Grenier, N. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Urology and Vascular Imaging, Bordeaux (France); Ferriere, J.M.; Robert, G. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Urology Service, Bordeaux (France)

    2014-08-15

    To evaluate the efficacy of selective arterial embolization (SAE) of angiomyolipomas based on the percentage volume reduction after embolization and to identify predictive factors of volume decrease. Patients receiving prophylactic SAE of renal angiomyolipomas were included retrospectively over 3 years. The volume change after SAE and haemorrhagic or surgical events were recorded. Initial tumour volume, percentage tumour fat content, mean tumour density, embolic agent used, number of angiomyolipomas and tuberous sclerosis disease were evaluated as predictive factors of volume decrease. A total of 19 patients with 39 angiomyolipomas were included with median follow-up of 28 months (interquartile range 21-37 months). All treatments were technically successful (92 % primary and 8 % secondary). No distal bleeding or any increase in size or surgical nephrectomy after SAE was recorded. Mean volume reduction was 72 % (±24 %). Volumes before SAE (R{sup 2} = 0.276; p = 0.001), percentage fat content (R{sup 2} = 0.612; p < 0.0001) and mean angiomyolipoma density (R{sup 2} = 0.536; p < 0.0001) were identified as predictive factors of volume decrease. In multivariate regression, only percentage fat content influenced volume decreases. SAE is an efficient treatment for angiomyolipoma devascularisation and volume reduction. A significant reduction of volume is modulated by the initial volume and tissue composition of the tumour. (orig.)

  5. Neural correlates of error monitoring in adolescents prospectively predict initiation of tobacco use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey P. Anokhin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Deficits in self-regulation of behavior can play an important role in the initiation of substance use and progression to regular use and dependence. One of the distinct component processes of self-regulation is error monitoring, i.e. detection of a conflict between the intended and actually executed action. Here we examined whether a neural marker of error monitoring, Error-Related Negativity (ERN, predicts future initiation of tobacco use. ERN was assessed in a prospective longitudinal sample at ages 12, 14, and 16 using a flanker task. ERN amplitude showed a significant increase with age during adolescence. Reduced ERN amplitude at ages 14 and 16, as well as slower rate of its developmental changes significantly predicted initiation of tobacco use by age 18 but not transition to regular tobacco use or initiation of marijuana and alcohol use. The present results suggest that attenuated development of the neural mechanisms of error monitoring during adolescence can increase the risk for initiation of tobacco use. The present results also suggest that the role of distinct neurocognitive component processes involved in behavioral regulation may be limited to specific stages of addiction.

  6. Data fusion for planning target volume and isodose prediction in prostate brachytherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nouranian, Saman; Ramezani, Mahdi; Mahdavi, S. Sara; Spadinger, Ingrid; Morris, William J.; Salcudean, Septimiu E.; Abolmaesumi, Purang

    2015-03-01

    In low-dose prostate brachytherapy treatment, a large number of radioactive seeds is implanted in and adjacent to the prostate gland. Planning of this treatment involves the determination of a Planning Target Volume (PTV), followed by defining the optimal number of seeds, needles and their coordinates for implantation. The two major planning tasks, i.e. PTV determination and seed definition, are associated with inter- and intra-expert variability. Moreover, since these two steps are performed in sequence, the variability is accumulated in the overall treatment plan. In this paper, we introduce a model based on a data fusion technique that enables joint determination of PTV and the minimum Prescribed Isodose (mPD) map. The model captures the correlation between different information modalities consisting of transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) volumes, PTV and isodose contours. We take advantage of joint Independent Component Analysis (jICA) as a linear decomposition technique to obtain a set of joint components that optimally describe such correlation. We perform a component stability analysis to generate a model with stable parameters that predicts the PTV and isodose contours solely based on a new patient TRUS volume. We propose a framework for both modeling and prediction processes and evaluate it on a dataset of 60 brachytherapy treatment records. We show PTV prediction error of 10:02+/-4:5% and the V100 isodose overlap of 97+/-3:55% with respect to the clinical gold standard.

  7. Taste and Smell Disturbances after Brain Irradiation: A Dose Volume Histogram Analysis of a Prospective Observational Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyrer, C. Marc; Chan, Michael D.; Peiffer, Ann M.; Horne, Elizabeth; Harmon, Michelle; Carter, Annette F.; Hinson, William H.; Mirlohi, Susan; Duncan, Susan E.; Dietrich, Andrea M.; Lesser, Glenn J.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Radiation-induced taste and smell disturbances are prevalent in patients receiving brain radiotherapy, although the mechanisms underlying these toxicities are poorly understood. We report the results of a single institution prospective clinical trial aimed at correlating self-reported taste and smell disturbances with radiation dose delivered to defined areas within the brain and nasopharynx. Methods and Materials 22 patients with gliomas were enrolled on a prospective observational trial in which patients underwent a validated questionnaire assessing taste and smell disturbances at baseline, and at 3 and 6 weeks after commencement of brain radiotherapy. 14 patients with glioblastoma, 3 patients with grade 3 gliomas, and 5 patients with low grade gliomas participated. Median dose to tumor volume was 60 Gy (range 45–60 Gy). Dose volume histogram (DVH) analysis was performed for specific regions of interest (ROI) that were considered potential targets of radiation damage including the thalamus, temporal lobes, nasopharynx, olfactory groove, frontal pole and periventricular stem cell niche. The %v10 (percent of ROI receiving 10 Gy), %v40, and %v60 were calculated for each structure. Data from questionnaires and DVH were analyzed using stepwise regression. Results 20 of 22 patients submitted evaluable questionnaires that encompassed at least the entire radiotherapy course. 10 of 20 patients reported experiencing some degree of smell disturbance during radiotherapy, and 14 of 20 patients experienced taste disturbances. Patients reporting more severe taste toxicity also reported more severe toxicities with sense of smell (r2=0.60, pmore common in temporal lobe tumors, and may be related to the dose received by the nasopharynx. PMID:24890354

  8. Taste and smell disturbances after brain irradiation: a dose-volume histogram analysis of a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyrer, C Marc; Chan, Michael D; Peiffer, Ann M; Horne, Elizabeth; Harmon, Michelle; Carter, Annette F; Hinson, William H; Mirlohi, Susan; Duncan, Susan E; Dietrich, Andrea M; Lesser, Glenn J

    2014-01-01

    Radiation-induced taste and smell disturbances are prevalent in patients receiving brain radiation therapy, although the mechanisms underlying these toxicities are poorly understood. We report the results of a single institution prospective clinical trial aimed at correlating self-reported taste and smell disturbances with radiation dose delivered to defined areas within the brain and nasopharynx. Twenty-two patients with gliomas were enrolled on a prospective observational trial in which patients underwent a validated questionnaire assessing taste and smell disturbances at baseline and at 3 and 6 weeks after commencement of brain radiation therapy. Fourteen patients with glioblastoma, 3 patients with grade 3 gliomas, and 5 patients with low grade gliomas participated. Median dose to tumor volume was 60 Gy (range, 45-60 Gy). Dose-volume histogram (DVH) analysis was performed for specific regions of interest that were considered potential targets of radiation damage, including the thalamus, temporal lobes, nasopharynx, olfactory groove, frontal pole, and periventricular stem cell niche. The %v10 (percent of region of interest receiving 10 Gy), %v40, and %v60 were calculated for each structure. Data from questionnaires and DVH were analyzed using stepwise regression. Twenty of 22 patients submitted evaluable questionnaires that encompassed at least the entire radiation therapy course. Ten of 20 patients reported experiencing some degree of smell disturbance during radiation therapy, and 14 of 20 patients experienced taste disturbances. Patients reporting more severe taste toxicity also reported more severe toxicities with sense of smell (r(2) = 0.60, P more common in temporal lobe tumors, and may be related to the dose received by the nasopharynx. © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Malnutrition risk predicts surgical outcomes in patients undergoing gastrointestinal operations: Results of a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Judy W C; Wu, Arthur H W; Lee, Michelle W K; Lau, So-ying; Lam, Pui-shan; Lau, Wai-shan; Kwok, Sam S S; Kwan, Rosa Y H; Lam, Cheuk-fan; Tam, Chun-kit; Lee, Suk-on

    2015-08-01

    Patients undergoing gastrointestinal operations are at risk of malnutrition which may increase the chance of adverse surgical outcomes. This prospective study aimed at correlating nutritional status of patients having gastrointestinal operations with their short-term surgical outcomes captured by a territory-wide Surgical Outcomes Monitoring and Improvement Program. The preoperative malnutrition risk of Chinese adult patients undergoing elective/emergency ultra-major/major gastrointestinal operations in two surgical departments over a 12-month period were assessed by Chinese version of Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool. Their perioperative risk factors and clinical outcomes, including length of hospital stay, mortality and morbidity, were retrieved from the above mentioned program. Correlation of malnutrition risk with clinical outcomes was assessed by logistic regression analysis after controlling for known confounders. 943 patients (58% male; mean age 65.9 ± 14.8 years) underwent gastrointestinal operations (40.3% emergency operation; 52.7% ultra-major procedures; 66.9% bowel resections) had analyzable data. 15.8% and 17.1% of patients were at medium and high risk of malnutrition, respectively. Malnutrition risk score according to the screening tool was an independent predictor of length of hospital stay, 30-day mortality, 60-day mortality and minor medical complications. Similar correlations were found for various sub-scores of malnutrition risk. Weight loss sub-score was predictive of 30-day mortality, 60-day mortality and minor medical complications. Body mass index was predictive of mortality (30- and 60- day) whereas the acute disease sub-score was predictive of length of hospital stay. Preoperative malnutrition was an important predictor of poor clinical outcomes in patients undergoing gastrointestinal operations in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  10. Current asthma control predicts future risk of asthma exacerbation: a 12-month prospective cohort study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WEI Hua-hua; ZHOU Ting; WANG Lan; ZHANG Hong-ping; FU Juan-juan; WANG Lei; JI Yu-lin; WANG Gang

    2012-01-01

    Background The performance of asthma control test (ACT) at baseline for predicting future risk of asthma exacerbation has not been previously demonstrated.This study was designed to explore the ability of the baseline ACT score to predict future risk of asthma exacerbation during a 12-month follow-up.Methods This post hoc analysis included data from a 12-month prospective cohort study in patients with asthma (n=290).The time to the first asthma exacerbation was analyzed and the association between baseline ACT scores and future risk of asthma exacerbation was calculated as adjusted odds ratio (OR) using Logistic regression models.Further,sensitivity and specificity were estimated at each cut-point of ACT scores for predicting asthma exacerbations.Results The subjects were divided into three groups,which were uncontrolled (U,n=128),partly-controlled (PC,n=111),and well controlled (C,n=51) asthma.After adjustment,the decreased ACT scores at baseline in the U and PC groups were associated with an increased probability of asthma exacerbations (OR 3.65 and OR 5.75,respectively),unplanned visits (OR 8.03 and OR 8.21,respectively) and emergency visits (OR 20.00 and OR 22.60,respectively) over a 12-month follow-up period.The time to the first asthma exacerbation was shorter in the groups with U and PC asthma (all P<0.05).The baseline ACT of 20 identified as the cut-point for screening the patients at high risk of asthma exacerbations had an increased sensitivity of over 90.0% but a lower specificity of about 30.0%.Conclusion Our findings indicate that the baseline ACT score with a high sensitivity could rule out patients at low risk of asthma exacerbations and oredict future risk of asthma exacerbations in clinical practice.

  11. A Simple Algorithm for Predicting Bacteremia Using Food Consumption and Shaking Chills: A Prospective Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komatsu, Takayuki; Takahashi, Erika; Mishima, Kentaro; Toyoda, Takeo; Saitoh, Fumihiro; Yasuda, Akari; Matsuoka, Joe; Sugita, Manabu; Branch, Joel; Aoki, Makoto; Tierney, Lawrence; Inoue, Kenji

    2017-07-01

    Predicting the presence of true bacteremia based on clinical examination is unreliable. We aimed to construct a simple algorithm for predicting true bacteremia by using food consumption and shaking chills. A prospective multicenter observational study. Three hospital centers in a large Japanese city. In total, 1,943 hospitalized patients aged 14 to 96 years who underwent blood culture acquisitions between April 2013 and August 2014 were enrolled. Patients with anorexia-inducing conditions were excluded. We assessed the patients' oral food intake based on the meal immediately prior to the blood culture with definition as "normal food consumption" when >80% of a meal was consumed and "poor food consumption" when food consumption and shaking chills for the presence of true bacteremia, and subsequently built the algorithm by using recursive partitioning analysis. Among 1,943 patients, 223 cases were true bacteremia. Among patients with normal food consumption, without shaking chills, the incidence of true bacteremia was 2.4% (13/552). Among patients with poor food consumption and shaking chills, the incidence of true bacteremia was 47.7% (51/107). The presence of poor food consumption had a sensitivity of 93.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.4%-97.9%) for true bacteremia, and the absence of poor food consumption (ie, normal food consumption) had a negative likelihood ratio (LR) of 0.18 (95% CI, 0.17-0.19) for excluding true bacteremia, respectively. Conversely, the presence of the shaking chills had a specificity of 95.1% (95% CI, 90.7%-99.4%) and a positive LR of 4.78 (95% CI, 4.56-5.00) for true bacteremia. A 2-item screening checklist for food consumption and shaking chills had excellent statistical properties as a brief screening instrument for predicting true bacteremia.

  12. Prediction of contralateral inguinal hernias in children: a prospective study of 357 unilateral inguinal hernias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshino, M; Sugito, K; Kawashima, H; Goto, S; Kaneda, H; Furuya, T; Hosoda, T; Masuko, T; Ohashi, K; Inoue, M; Ikeda, T; Tomita, R; Koshinaga, T

    2014-06-01

    Previously, we established a pre-operative risk scoring system to predict contralateral inguinal hernia in children with unilateral inguinal hernias. The current study aimed to verify the usefulness of our pre-operative scoring system. This was a prospective study of patients undergoing unilateral inguinal hernia repair from 2006 to 2009 at a single institution. Gender, age at initial operation, birth weight, initial operation side, and the pre-operative risk score were recorded. We analyzed the incidence of contralateral inguinal hernia, risk factors, and the usefulness of our pre-operative risk scoring system. The follow-up period was 36 months. We used forward multiple logistic regression analysis to predict contralateral hernia. Of the 372 patients who underwent unilateral hernia repair, 357 (96.0 %) were completely followed-up for 36 months, and 23 patients (6.4 %) developed a contralateral hernia. Left-sided hernia (OR = 5.5, 95 %, CI = 1.3-24.3, p = 0.023) was associated with an increased risk of contralateral hernia. The following covariates were not associated with contralateral hernia development: gender (p = 0.702), age (p = 0.215), and birth weight (p = 0.301). The pre-operative risk score (cut-off point = 4.5) of the patients with a contralateral hernia was significantly higher, compared with the patients without a contralateral hernia using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (p = 0.024). Using multivariate analysis, we confirmed usefulness of our pre-operative scoring system and initial side of the inguinal hernia, together, for the prediction of contralateral inguinal hernia in children.

  13. Predicting hospital mortality using APACHE II scores in neurocritically ill patients: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Ying-Ying; Li, Xia; Li, Si-jie; Luo, Rong; Ding, Jian-ping; Wang, Lin; Cao, Gui-hua; Wang, Dong-yu; Gao, Jin-xia

    2009-09-01

    Four versions of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation are limited in predicting hospital mortality for neurocritically ill patients. This prospective study aimed to develop and assess the accuracy of a modified APACHE II model in predicting mortality in neurologic intensive care unit (N-ICU). A total of 653 patients entered the study. APACHE II scores on admission, and worst 24-, 48-, and 72-h scores were obtained. Neurologic diagnoses on admission were classified into five categories: cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, neurologic infection, neuromuscular disease, and other neurologic diseases. We developed a modified APACHE II model based on the variables of the 72-h APACHE II score and disease category using a multivariate logistic regression procedure to estimate probability of death. We assessed the calibration and discrimination of the modified APACHE II model using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit chi-squared statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC). The modified APACHE II model had good discrimination (AU-ROC = 0.88) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic: chi (2) = 3.707, P = 0.834). The discrimination of the 72-h APACHE II score for cerebral infarction, intracerebral hemorrhage, and neurologic infection was satisfactory, with AU-ROC of 0.858, 0.863, and 1.000, respectively, but it was poor in discriminating for the categories of other neurologic diseases and neuromuscular disease. The results showed that our modified APACHE II model can accurately predict hospital mortality for patients in N-ICU. It is more applicable to clinical practice than the previous model because of its simplicity and ease of use.

  14. Retinopathy Signs Improved Prediction and Reclassification of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Diabetes: A prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Henrietta; Cheung, Carol Y.; Sabanayagam, Charumathi; Yip, Wanfen; Ikram, Mohammad Kamran; Ong, Peng Guan; Mitchell, Paul; Chow, Khuan Yew; Cheng, Ching Yu; Tai, E. Shyong; Wong, Tien Yin

    2017-01-01

    CVD risk prediction in diabetics is imperfect, as risk models are derived mainly from the general population. We investigate whether the addition of retinopathy and retinal vascular caliber improve CVD prediction beyond established risk factors in persons with diabetes. We recruited participants from the Singapore Malay Eye Study (SiMES, 2004–2006) and Singapore Prospective Study Program (SP2, 2004–2007), diagnosed with diabetes but no known history of CVD at baseline. Retinopathy and retinal vascular (arteriolar and venular) caliber measurements were added to risk prediction models derived from Cox regression model that included established CVD risk factors and serum biomarkers in SiMES, and validated this internally and externally in SP2. We found that the addition of retinal parameters improved discrimination compared to the addition of biochemical markers of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). This was even better when the retinal parameters and biomarkers were used in combination (C statistic 0.721 to 0.774, p = 0.013), showing improved discrimination, and overall reclassification (NRI = 17.0%, p = 0.004). External validation was consistent (C-statistics from 0.763 to 0.813, p = 0.045; NRI = 19.11%, p = 0.036). Our findings show that in persons with diabetes, retinopathy and retinal microvascular parameters add significant incremental value in reclassifying CVD risk, beyond established risk factors. PMID:28148953

  15. Peri-prostatic Fat Volume Measurement as a Predictive Tool for Castration Resistance in Advanced Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salji, Mark; Hendry, Jane; Patel, Amit; Ahmad, Imran; Nixon, Colin; Leung, Hing Y

    2017-03-01

    Obesity and aggressive prostate cancer (PC) may be linked, but how local peri-prostatic fat relates to tumour response following androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is unknown. To test if peri-prostatic fat volume (PPFV) predicts tumour response to ADT. We performed a retrospective study on consecutive patients receiving primary ADT. From staging pelvic magnetic resonance imaging scans, the PPFV was quantified with OsirixX 6.5 imaging software. Statistical (univariate and multivariate) analysis were performed using R Version 3.2.1. Of 224 consecutive patients, 61 with advanced (≥T3 or N1 or M1) disease had (3-mm high resolution axial sections) pelvic magnetic resonance imaging scan before ADT. Median age=75 yr; median PPFV=24.8cm(3) (range, 7.4-139.4cm(3)). PPFV was significantly higher in patients who developed castration resistant prostate cancer (CRPC; n=31), with a median of 37.9cm(3) compared with 16.1cm(3) (p <0.0001, Wilcoxon rank sum test) in patients who showed sustained response to ADT (n=30). Multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards models were performed controlling for known predictors of CRPC. PPFV was shown to be independent of all included factors, and the most significant predictor of time to CRPC. Using our multivariate model consisting of all known factors prior to ADT, PPFV significantly improved the area under the curve of the multivariate models receiver operating characteristic analysis. The main study limitation is a relatively small cohort to account for multiple variables, necessitating a future large-scale prospective analysis of PPFV in advanced PC. PPFV quantification in patients with advanced PC predicts tumour response to ADT. The amount of fat around the prostate predicts prostate cancer response to hormone treatment. Copyright © 2017 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Predicting prognosis in stable angina--results from the Euro heart survey of stable angina: prospective observational study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daly, C.A.; Stavola, B. De; Lopez Sendon, J.L.; Tavazzi, L.; Boersma, E.; Clemens, F.; Danchin, N.; Delahaye, F.; Gitt, A.; Julian, D.; Mulcahy, D.; Ruzyllo, W.; Thygesen, K.; Verheugt, F.W.A.; Fox, K.M.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognosis associated with stable angina in a contemporary population as seen in clinical practice, to identify the key prognostic features, and from this to construct a simple score to assist risk prediction. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Pan

  17. Longitudinal robustness of variables predicting independent gait following severe middle cerebral artery stroke: a prospective cohort study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kollen, B.; Kwakkel, G.; Lindeman, E.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine within the first 10 weeks post onset the most robust variables in the prediction of recovery of independent gait at six months post stroke. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. SUBJECTS: One hundred and one first ever ischaemic middle cerebral artery stroke patients. None of

  18. Longitudinal robustness of variables predicting independent gait following severe middle cerebral artery stroke: a prospective cohort study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kollen, B.; Kwakkel, G.; Lindeman, E.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine within the first 10 weeks post onset the most robust variables in the prediction of recovery of independent gait at six months post stroke. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. SUBJECTS: One hundred and one first ever ischaemic middle cerebral artery stroke patients. None of t

  19. Predicting the Math/Science Career Goals of Low-Income Prospective First-Generation College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garriott, Patton O.; Flores, Lisa Y.; Martens, Matthew P.

    2013-01-01

    The present study used social cognitive career theory (SCCT; Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) to predict the math/science goal intentions of a sample of low-income prospective first-generation college students (N = 305). Structural equation modeling was used to test a model depicting relationships between contextual (i.e., social class, learning…

  20. The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing : a prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Oostrom, Iris; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J.; Broecker-Vriends, Annette H. J. T.; van Asperen, Christi J.; Sijmons, Rolf H.; Seynaeve, Caroline; Van Gool, Arthur R.; Klijn, Jan G. M.; Tibben, Aad

    2007-01-01

    This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related gene

  1. The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing: a prospective study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oostrom, I.I.H. van; Meijers-Heijboer, H.; Duivenvoorden, H.J.; Brocker-Vriends, A.H.; Asperen, C.J. van; Sijmons, R.H.; Seynaeve, C.; Gool, A.R. van; Klijn, J.G.M.; Tibben, A.

    2007-01-01

    This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related gene

  2. Volume fraction prediction in biphasic flow using nuclear technique and artificial neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salgado, Cesar M.; Brandao, Luis E.B., E-mail: otero@ien.gov.br, E-mail: brandao@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    The volume fraction is one of the most important parameters used to characterize air-liquid two-phase flows. It is a physical value to determine other parameters, such as the phase's densities and to determine the flow rate of each phase. These parameters are important to predict the flow pattern and to determine a mathematical model for the system. To study, for example, heat transfer and pressure drop. This work presents a methodology for volume fractions prediction in water-gas stratified flow regime using the nuclear technique and artificial intelligence. The volume fractions calculate in biphasic flow systems is complex and the analysis by means of analytical equations becomes very difficult. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means of the artificial neural network. The detection system uses appropriate broad beam geometry, comprised of a ({sup 137}Cs) energy gamma-ray source and a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector in order measure transmitted beam whose the counts rates are influenced by the phases composition. These distributions are directly used by the network without any parameterization of the measured signal. The ideal and static theoretical models for stratified regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the network. The detector also was modeled with this code and the results were compared to experimental photopeak efficiency measurements of radiation sources. The proposed network could obtain with satisfactory prediction of the volume fraction in water-gas system, demonstrating to be a promising approach for this purpose. (author)

  3. Critical combinations of radiation dose and volume predict intelligence quotient and academic achievement scores after craniospinal irradiation in children with medulloblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, Thomas E; Schreiber, Jane E; Wu, Shengjie; Lukose, Renin; Xiong, Xiaoping; Gajjar, Amar

    2014-11-01

    To prospectively follow children treated with craniospinal irradiation to determine critical combinations of radiation dose and volume that would predict for cognitive effects. Between 1996 and 2003, 58 patients (median age 8.14 years, range 3.99-20.11 years) with medulloblastoma received risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation followed by dose-intense chemotherapy and were followed longitudinally with multiple cognitive evaluations (through 5 years after treatment) that included intelligence quotient (estimated intelligence quotient, full-scale, verbal, and performance) and academic achievement (math, reading, spelling) tests. Craniospinal irradiation consisted of 23.4 Gy for average-risk patients (nonmetastatic) and 36-39.6 Gy for high-risk patients (metastatic or residual disease >1.5 cm(2)). The primary site was treated using conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy using a 2-cm clinical target volume margin. The effect of clinical variables and radiation dose to different brain volumes were modeled to estimate cognitive scores after treatment. A decline with time for all test scores was observed for the entire cohort. Sex, race, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt status had a significant impact on baseline scores. Age and mean radiation dose to specific brain volumes, including the temporal lobes and hippocampi, had a significant impact on longitudinal scores. Dichotomized dose distributions at 25 Gy, 35 Gy, 45 Gy, and 55 Gy were modeled to show the impact of the high-dose volume on longitudinal test scores. The 50% risk of a below-normal cognitive test score was calculated according to mean dose and dose intervals between 25 Gy and 55 Gy at 10-Gy increments according to brain volume and age. The ability to predict cognitive outcomes in children with medulloblastoma using dose-effects models for different brain subvolumes will improve treatment planning, guide intervention, and help estimate the value of newer methods of irradiation. Copyright © 2014

  4. Pulse pressure variation and prediction of fluid responsiveness in patients ventilated with low tidal volumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clarice Daniele Alves de Oliveira-Costa

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To determine the utility of pulse pressure variation (ΔRESP PP in predicting fluid responsiveness in patients ventilated with low tidal volumes (V T and to investigate whether a lower ΔRESP PP cut-off value should be used when patients are ventilated with low tidal volumes. METHOD: This cross-sectional observational study included 37 critically ill patients with acute circulatory failure who required fluid challenge. The patients were sedated and mechanically ventilated with a V T of 6-7 ml/kg ideal body weight, which was monitored with a pulmonary artery catheter and an arterial line. The mechanical ventilation and hemodynamic parameters, including ΔRESP PP, were measured before and after fluid challenge with 1,000 ml crystalloids or 500 ml colloids. Fluid responsiveness was defined as an increase in the cardiac index of at least 15%. ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01569308. RESULTS: A total of 17 patients were classified as responders. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve (AUC showed that the optimal cut-off point for ΔRESP PP to predict fluid responsiveness was 10% (AUC = 0.74. Adjustment of the ΔRESP PP to account for driving pressure did not improve the accuracy (AUC = 0.76. A ΔRESP PP>10% was a better predictor of fluid responsiveness than central venous pressure (AUC = 0.57 or pulmonary wedge pressure (AUC = 051. Of the 37 patients, 25 were in septic shock. The AUC for ΔRESP PP>10% to predict responsiveness in patients with septic shock was 0.484 (sensitivity, 78%; specificity, 93%. CONCLUSION: The parameter D RESP PP has limited value in predicting fluid responsiveness in patients who are ventilated with low tidal volumes, but a ΔRESP PP>10% is a significant improvement over static parameters. A ΔRESP PP > 10% may be particularly useful for identifying responders in patients with septic shock.

  5. Salinity independent volume fraction prediction in water-gas-oil multiphase flows using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salgado, C.M.; Pereira, Claudio M.N.A.; Brandao, Luis E.B., E-mail: otero@ien.gov.b, E-mail: cmnap@ien.gov.b, E-mail: brandao@ien.gov.b [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (DIRA/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Div. de Radiofarmacos

    2011-07-01

    This work investigates the response of a volume fraction prediction system for water-gas-oil multiphase flows considering variations on water salinity. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The detection system uses appropriate fan beam geometry, comprised of a dual-energy gamma-ray source and two NaI(Tl) detectors adequately positioned outside the pipe in order measure transmitted and scattered beams. An ideal and static theoretical model for annular flow regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the ANN. More than 500 simulations have been done, in which water salinity have been ranged from 0 to 16% in order to cover a most practical situations. Validation tests have included values of volume fractions and water salinity different from those used in ANN training phase. The results presented here show that the proposed approach may be successfully applied to material volume fraction prediction on watergas- oil multiphase flows considering practical (real) levels of variations in water salinity. (author)

  6. Prediction of lateral surface, volume and sphericity of pomegranate using MLP artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Rohani

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Fast and accurate determination of geometrical properties of agricultural products has many applications in agricultural operations like planting, cultivating, harvesting and post-harvesting. Calculations related to storing, shipping and storage-coating materials as well as peeling time and surface-microbial concentrations are some applications of estimating product volume and surface area. Sphericity is also a parameter by which the shape differences between fruits, vegetables, grains and seeds can be quantified. This parameter is important in grading systems and inspecting rolling capability of agricultural products. Bayram presented a new dimensional method and equation to calculate the sphericity of certain shapesand some granular food materials (Bayram, 2005. Kumar and Mathew proposed atheoretically soundmethod for estimating the surface area of ellipsoidal food materials (Kumar and Mathew, 2003. Clayton et al. used non-linear regression models for calculation of apple surface area using the fruit mass or volume (Clayton et al., 1995. Humeida and Hobani predicted surface area and volume of pomegranates based on the weight and geometrical diametermean (Humeida and Hobani, 1993. Wang and Nguang designeda low cost sensor system to automatically compute the volume and surface area of axi-symmetricagricultural products such as eggs, lemons, limes and tamarillos (Wang and Nguang, 2007. The main objective of this study was to investigate the potential of Artificial Neural Network (ANN technique as an alternative method to predict the volume, surface area and sphericity of pomegranates. Materials and methods: The water displacement method (WDM was used for measuring the actual volume of pomegranates. Also, the sphericity and surface area are computed by using analytical methods. In this study, the neural MLP models were designed based upon the three nominal diameters of pomegranatesas variable inputs, while the output model consisted

  7. A prediction rule for shoulder pain related sick leave: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van der Heijden Geert JMG

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Shoulder pain is common in primary care, and has an unfavourable outcome in many patients. Information about predictors of shoulder pain related sick leave in workers is scarce and inconsistent. The objective was to develop a clinical prediction rule for calculating the risk of shoulder pain related sick leave for individual workers, during the 6 months following first consultation in general practice. Methods A prospective cohort study with 6 months follow-up was conducted among 350 workers with a new episode of shoulder pain. Potential predictors included the results of a physical examination, sociodemographic variables, disease characteristics (duration of symptoms, sick leave in the 2 months prior to consultation, pain intensity, disability, comorbidity, physical activity, physical work load, psychological factors, and the psychosocial work environment. The main outcome measure was sick leave during 6 months following first consultation in general practice. Results Response rate to the follow-up questionnaire at 6 months was 85%. During the 6 months after first consultation 30% (89/298 of the workers reported sick leave. 16% (47 reported 10 days sick leave or more. Sick leave during this period was predicted in a multivariable model by a longer duration of sick leave prior to consultation, more shoulder pain, a perceived cause of strain or overuse during regular activities, and co-existing psychological complaints. The discriminative ability of the prediction model was satisfactory with an area under the curve of 0.70 (95% CI 0.64–0.76. Conclusion Although 30% of all workers with shoulder pain reported sick leave during follow-up, the duration of sick leave was limited to a few days in most workers. We developed a prediction rule and a score chart that can be used by general practitioners and occupational health care providers to calculate the absolute risk of sick leave in individual workers with shoulder pain, which

  8. Effect of a mandatory iodization program on thyroid gland volume based on individuals' age, gender, and preceding severity of dietary iodine deficiency: A prospective, population-based study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vejbjerg, Pernille; Knudsen, Nils; Perrild, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Objective: We aimed to evaluate prospectively the effect of 4 yr of mandatory iodization of salt (13 ppm iodine) on thyroid volume in two regional areas with respectively mild and moderate iodine deficiency. Methods: Two separate cross-sectional studies were performed before (n = 4649) and after ...

  9. Goal-directed intraoperative fluid therapy guided by stroke volume and its variation in high-risk surgical patients : a prospective randomized multicentre study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheeren, Thomas W. L.; Wiesenack, Christoph; Gerlach, Herwig; Marx, Gernot

    2013-01-01

    Perioperative hemodynamic optimisation improves postoperative outcome for patients undergoing high-risk surgery (HRS). In this prospective randomized multicentre study we studied the effects of an individualized, goal-directed fluid management based on continuous stroke volume variation (SVV) and st

  10. Caregivers' understanding of dementia predicts patients' comfort at death: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Steen, Jenny T; Onwuteaka-Philipsen, Bregje D; Knol, Dirk L; Ribbe, Miel W; Deliens, Luc

    2013-04-11

    Patients with dementia frequently do not receive adequate palliative care which may relate to poor understanding of the natural course of dementia. We hypothesized that understanding that dementia is a progressive and terminal disease is fundamental to a focus on comfort in dementia, and examined how family and professional caregivers' understanding of the nature of the disease was associated with patients' comfort during the dying process. We enrolled 372 nursing home patients from 28 facilities in The Netherlands in a prospective observational study (2007 to 2010). We studied both the families and the physicians (73) of 161 patients. Understanding referred to families' comprehension of complications, prognosis, having been counseled on these, and perception of dementia as "a disease you can die from" (5-point agreement scale) at baseline. Physicians reported on this perception, prognosis and having counseled on this. Staff-assessed comfort with the End-of-Life in Dementia - Comfort Assessment in Dying (EOLD-CAD) scale. Associations between understanding and comfort were assessed with generalized estimating equations, structural equation modeling, and mediator analyses. A family's perception of dementia as "a disease you can die from" predicted higher patient comfort during the dying process (adjusted coefficient -0.8, 95% confidence interval (CI): -1.5; -0.06 point increment disagreement). Family and physician combined perceptions (-0.9, CI: -1.5; -0.2; 9-point scale) were also predictive, including in less advanced dementia. Forty-three percent of the families perceived dementia as a disease you can die from (agreed completely, partly); 94% of physicians did. The association between combined perception and higher comfort was mediated by the families' reporting of a good relationship with the patient and physicians' perception that good care was provided in the last week. Awareness of the terminal nature of dementia may improve patient comfort at the end of life

  11. Biofilm detection by wound blotting can predict slough development in pressure ulcers: A prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagami, Gojiro; Schultz, Gregory; Gibson, Daniel J; Phillips, Priscilla; Kitamura, Aya; Minematsu, Takeo; Miyagaki, Tomomitsu; Hayashi, Akitatsu; Sasaki, Sanae; Sugama, Junko; Sanada, Hiromi

    2016-12-26

    Bacteria have been found to form multicellular aggregates which have collectively been termed "biofilms." It is hypothesized that biofilm formation is a means to protect bacterial cells including protection form the immune response of humans. This protective mechanism is believed to explain persistent chronic wound infections. At times, the biofilms are abundant enough to see, and remove by simple wiping. However, recent evidence has shown that the removal of these visible portions are not sufficient, and that biofilms can continue to form even with daily wiping. In this work, we tested an approach to detect the biofilms which are present after clinically wiping or sharp wound debridement. Our method is based on a variation of impression cytology in which a nitrocellulose membrane was used to collect surface biofilm components, which were then differentially stained. In this prospective study, members of an interdisciplinary pressure ulcer team at a university hospital tested our method's ability to predict the generation of wound slough in the week that followed each blotting. A total of 70 blots collected from 23 pressure ulcers produced 27 wounds negative for staining and 43 positive. In the negative blots 55.6% were found to have decreased wound slough, while 81.4% with positive staining had either increase or unchanged wound slough generation. These results lead to an odds ratio of positive blotting cases of 9.37 (95% confidence intervals: 2.47-35.5, p = 0.001) for slough formation; suggesting that the changes in wound slough formation can be predicted clinically using a non-invasive wound blotting method.

  12. The predictive value of ePAQ in the urodynamic diagnoses-A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCooty, Shanteela; Nightingale, Peter; Latthe, Pallavi

    2017-04-13

    To assess whether the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire-Pelvic Floor (ePAQ-PF) had accuracy in predicting the urodynamic diagnoses of Detrusor Overactivity (DO) and/or Urodynamic Stress Incontinence (USI). Tertiary urogynaecology unit linked to an academic university teaching hospital. Consecutive women who presented with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and were booked to have urodynamic studies. Women completed an ePAQ-PF prior to having urodynamics (UDS) by clinicians who were blinded to the ePAQ-PF results while conducting this procedure. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed for predictive accuracy of overactive bladder (OAB) score in DO and of stress urinary incontinence (SUI) score in USI. Prospective cohort study designed to meet the requirements of the standards for reporting of diagnostic accuracy (STARD). 390 women with a mean age of 54.2 (range 21-92) years were recruited. The majority (n = 294; 75%) were White Caucasian and had two children (n = 157; 40.3%). Of them, 67.2% (n = 262) had DO and USI was confirmed in 21.5% (n = 84). The area under the ROC curve for DO was 0.704 (95% confidence interval 0.650-0.759) and for USI it was 0.731 (95% confidence interval 0.652-0.778). The OAB and SUI scores on the ePAQ-PF demonstrated that they are fair predictors in diagnosing DO and USI. As the OAB and SUI score on ePAQ-PF increased so did the likelihood of DO (up to a score of 75) and USI on UDS. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. PREDICT-PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noyce, Alastair J; R'Bibo, Lea; Peress, Luisa; Bestwick, Jonathan P; Adams-Carr, Kerala L; Mencacci, Niccolo E; Hawkes, Christopher H; Masters, Joseph M; Wood, Nicholas; Hardy, John; Giovannoni, Gavin; Lees, Andrew J; Schrag, Anette

    2017-02-01

    A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). To test an online, evidence-based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard-tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD ("intermediate markers"), including smell loss, rapid eye movement-sleep behavior disorder, and finger-tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow-up (all P values risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. The online PREDICT-PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

  14. Prospective prediction of college adjustment using self- and informant-rated personality traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, John E; Puher, Meredith A; Cross, Nicole A

    2012-01-01

    Studies that relate normal personality traits to students' adjustment to college have relied heavily on self-rating methods, concurrent designs, and academic performance indicators as criteria. We conducted a prospective study of high school seniors with a follow-up assessment made near the end of their freshman year of college. Self-ratings of personality traits and college adjustment were obtained from 90 students using the revised NEO personality inventory (NEO PI-R; Costa & McCrae, 1992) and the student adaptation to college questionnaire (SACQ; Baker & Siryk, 1989 ). Ratings of personality were also obtained from parents (n = 66) and same-sex peers from the college setting (n = 78) using the NEO five-factor inventory (NEO-FFI; Costa & McCrae, 1992 ). SACQ academic adjustment was correlated with conscientiousness ratings by all three sources and with openness ratings by parents and peers. SACQ Social Adjustment was correlated with self-ratings of neuroticism and peer ratings of extraversion. SACQ personal-emotional adjustment was correlated with self-ratings and parent ratings of neuroticism. Ratings by parents and peers showed significant incremental validity over self-ratings in the prediction of certain trait-adjustment relationships.

  15. Does childhood bullying predict eating disorder symptoms? A prospective, longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, William E; Bulik, Cynthia M; Zucker, Nancy; Wolke, Dieter; Lereya, Suzet Tanya; Costello, Elizabeth Jane

    2015-12-01

    Bullying is a common childhood experience with enduring psychosocial consequences. The aim of this study was to test whether bullying increases risk for eating disorder symptoms. Ten waves of data on 1,420 participants between ages 9 and 25 were used from the prospective population-based Great Smoky Mountains Study. Structured interviews were used to assess bullying involvement and symptoms of anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa as well as associated features. Bullying involvement was categorized as not involved, bully only, victim only, or both bully and victim (bully-victims). Within childhood/adolescence, victims of bullying were at increased risk for symptoms of anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa as well as associated features. These associations persisted after accounting for prior eating disorder symptom status as well as preexisting psychiatric status and family adversities. Bullies were at increased risk of symptoms of bulimia and associated features of eating disorders, and bully-victims had higher levels of anorexia symptoms. In terms of individual items, victims were at risk for binge eating, and bully-victims had more binge eating and use of vomiting as a compensatory behavior. There was little evidence in this sample that these effects differed by sex. Childhood bullying status was not associated with increased risk for persistent eating disorder symptoms into adulthood (ages 19, 21, and 25). Bullying predicts eating disorder symptoms for both bullies and victims. Bullying involvement should be a part of risk assessment and treatment planning for children with eating problems. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Accuracy of Fine Needle Cytology in Histological Prediction of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Variants: a Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cipolletta Campanile, Anna; Malzone, Maria Gabriella; Losito, Nunzia Simona; Botti, Gerardo; Chiofalo, Maria Grazia; Faggiano, Antongiulio; Siciliano, Roberta; Colao, Annamaria; Pezzullo, Luciano; Fulciniti, Franco

    2017-06-21

    Fine needle cytology (FNC) is a crucial procedure in the preoperative diagnosis of thyroid tumors. Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), in its classic variant (cPTC), is the most common malignant neoplasm of the thyroid. Several histological variants of PTC have been described, each one with its own characteristics and prognosis. The ability of FNC to identify the variants represents a challenge even for a skilled pathologist. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic cytological accuracy of FNC in PTC and to look for specific features that could predict the different variants. This was a single center prospective study on 128 patients who received a diagnosis of PTC on FNC. The smears were blindly reviewed by two cytopathologists to create a frequency score (0, 1, 2, 3) of the features for each variant. The cytological parameters were divided into three groups: architectural, nucleo-cytoplasmic, and background features. Univariate analysis was performed by chi-square test with Yates correction and Fisher exact test as appropriate. Multiple regression analysis was performed among the variables correlated at the linear correlation. The correlation study between cytology and histology showed an accuracy of FNC in classic, follicular, and oncocytic PTC variants of 63.5, 87.5, and 87% respectively. Familiarity with cytological features may allow an early diagnosis of a given PTC variant on FNC samples. This is fundamental in a preoperative evaluation for the best surgical approach and subsequent treatment.

  17. The interaction between self-regulation and motivation prospectively predicting problem behavior in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Jessica D; Colder, Craig R; Trucco, Elisa M; Speidel, Carolyn; Hawk, Larry W; Lengua, Liliana J; Das Eiden, Rina; Wieczorek, William

    2013-01-01

    A large literature suggests associations between self-regulation and motivation and adolescent problem behavior; however, this research has mostly pitted these constructs against one another or tested them in isolation. Following recent neural-systems based theories (e.g., Ernst & Fudge, 2009 ), the present study investigated the interactions between self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation prospectively predicting delinquency and depressive symptoms in early adolescence. The community sample included 387 adolescents aged 11 to 13 years old (55% female; 17% minority). Laboratory tasks were used to assess self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation, and adolescent self-reports were used to measure depressive symptoms and delinquency. Analyses suggested that low levels of approach motivation were associated with high levels of depressive symptoms, but only at high levels of self-regulation (p = .01). High levels of approach were associated with high levels of rule breaking, but only at low levels of self-regulation (p theories that posit integration of motivational and self-regulatory individual differences via moderational models to understand adolescent problem behavior.

  18. Refractive predictability in eyes with intraocular gas tamponade - results of a prospective controlled clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagenfeld, Lars; Hermsdorf, Kristin; Stemplewitz, Birthe; Druchkiv, Vasyl; Frings, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    To determine the postoperative refractive error in eyes with intraocular gas tamponade in combined phacovitrectomy using a Z-haptic intraocular lens (IOL). This prospective non-randomized case-control study compared patients with combined phacovitrectomy with or without intraocular gas tamponade to cataract surgery-only. The main outcome measure was the IOL power prediction error (PE). Secondary outcome measures were spherical equivalent, anterior chamber depth (ACD), and axial length. Thirty-four patients with epiretinal membranes and 18 patients with cataract only were enrolled. There were no statistically significant (P>0.05) differences of IOL power PE or postoperative ACDs (P=0.952-1.00). Nevertheless, IOL power PE indicated a myopic shift in cases with phacovitrectomy independent of gas tamponade (P=1.00). No statistically significant between-group differences between secondary outcome measures were observed. A myopic shift after phacovitrectomy seems to be independent of the use of intraocular gas tamponade. When using a Z-haptic IOL, aiming for slight residual hyperopia (+0.50 D) is suggested in patients having phacovitrectomy.

  19. Sleep disturbances predict prospective declines in resident physicians’ psychological well-being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice A. Min

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Medical residency can be a time of increased psychological stress and sleep disturbance. We examine the prospective associations between self-reported sleep quality and resident wellness across a single training year. Methods: Sixty-nine (N=69 resident physicians completed the Brief Resident Wellness Profile (M=17.66, standard deviation [SD]=3.45, range: 0–17 and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (M=6.22, SD=2.86, range: 12–25 at multiple occasions in a single training year. We examined the 1-month lagged effect of sleep disturbances on residents’ self-reported wellness. Results: Accounting for residents’ overall level of sleep disturbance across the entire study period, both the concurrent (within-person within-occasion effect of sleep disturbance (B=−0.20, standard error [SE]=0.06, p=0.003, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.33, −0.07 and the lagged within-person effect of resident sleep disturbance (B=−0.15, SE=0.07, p=0.037, 95% CI: −0.29, −0.009 were significant predictors of decreased resident wellness. Increases in sleep disturbances are a leading indicator of resident wellness, predicting decreased well-being 1 month later. Conclusions: Sleep quality exerts a significant effect on self-reported resident wellness. Periodic evaluation of sleep quality may alert program leadership and the residents themselves to impending decreases in psychological well-being.

  20. Predicting the outcome of chronic kidney disease by the estimated nephron number: The rationale and design of PRONEP, a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imasawa Toshiyuki

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The nephron number is thought to be associated with the outcome of chronic kidney disease (CKD. If the nephron number can be estimated in the clinical setting, it could become a strong tool to predict renal outcome. This study was designed to estimate the nephron number in CKD patients and to establish a method to predict the outcome by using the estimated nephron number. Methods/Design The hypothesis of this study is that the estimated nephron number can predict the outcome of a CKD patient. This will be a multicenter, prospective (minimum 3 and maximum 5 years follow-up study. The subjects will comprise CKD patients aged over 14 years who have undergone a kidney biopsy. From January 2011 to March 2013, we will recruit 600 CKD patients from 10 hospitals belonging to the National Hospital Organization of Japan. The primary parameter for assessment is the composite of total mortality, renal death, cerebro-cardiovascular events, and a 50% reduction in the eGFR. The secondary parameter is the rate of eGFR decline per year. The nephron number will be estimated by the glomerular density in biopsy specimens and the renal cortex volume. This study includes one sub-cohort study to establish the equation to calculate the renal cortex volume. Enrollment will be performed at the time of the kidney biopsy, and the data will consist of a medical interview, ultrasound for measurement of the kidney size, blood or urine test, and the pathological findings of the kidney biopsy. Patients will continue to have medical consultations and receive examinations and/or treatment as usual. The data from the patients will be collected once a year after the kidney biopsy until March 2016. All data using this study are easily obtained in routine clinical practice. Discussion This study includes the first trials to estimate the renal cortex volume and nephron number in the general clinical setting. Furthermore, this is the first prospective study to

  1. Predicted costs of environmental controls for a commercial oil shale industry. Volume 1. An engineering analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nevens, T.D.; Culbertson, W.J. Jr.; Wallace, J.R.; Taylor, G.C.; Jovanovich, A.P.; Prien, C.H.; Hicks, R.E.; Probstein, R.F.; Domahidy, G.

    1979-07-01

    The pollution control costs for a commercial oil shale industry were determined in a joint effort by Denver Research Institute, Water Purification Associates of Cambridge, and Stone and Webster Engineering of Boston and Denver. Four commercial oil shale processes were considered. The results in terms of cost per barrel of syncrude oil are predicted to be as follows: Paraho Process, $0.67 to $1.01; TOSCO II Process, $1.43 to $1.91; MIS Process, $2.02 to $3.03; and MIS/Lurgi-Ruhrgas Process, $1.68 to $2.43. Alternative pollution control equipment and integrated pollution control strategies were considered and optimal systems selected for each full-scale plant. A detailed inventory of equipment (along with the rationale for selection), a detailed description of control strategies, itemized costs and predicted emission levels are presented for each process. Capital and operating cost data are converted to a cost per barrel basis using detailed economic evaluation procedures. Ranges of cost are determined using a subjective self-assessment of uncertainty approach. An accepted methodology for probability encoding was used, and cost ranges are presented as subjective probability distributions. Volume I presents the detailed engineering results. Volume II presents the detailed analysis of uncertainty in the predicted costs.

  2. Prediction of Shrinkage Pore Volume Fraction Using a Dimensionless Niyama Criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Kent D.; Beckermann, Christoph

    2009-01-01

    A method is presented to use a dimensionless form of the well-known Niyama criterion to directly predict the amount of shrinkage porosity that forms during solidification of metal alloy castings. The main advancement offered by this method is that it avoids the need to know the threshold Niyama value below which shrinkage porosity forms; such threshold values are generally unknown and alloy dependent. The dimensionless criterion accounts for both the local thermal conditions (as in the original Niyama criterion) and the properties and solidification characteristics of the alloy. Once a dimensionless Niyama criterion value is obtained from casting simulation results, the corresponding shrinkage pore volume fraction can be determined knowing only the solid fraction-temperature curve and the total solidification shrinkage of the alloy. Curves providing the shrinkage pore volume percentage as a function of the dimensionless Niyama criterion are given for WCB steel, aluminum alloy A356, and magnesium alloy AZ91D. The present method is used in a general-purpose casting simulation software package to predict shrinkage porosity in three-dimensional (3-D) castings. Comparisons between simulated and experimental shrinkage porosity results for a WCB steel plate casting demonstrate that this method can reasonably predict shrinkage. Additional simulations for magnesium alloy AZ91D illustrate that this method is applicable to a wide variety of alloys and casting conditions.

  3. Tracheal tube cuff inflation guided by pressure volume loop closure associated with lower postoperative cuff-related complications: Prospective, randomized clinical trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waleed A Almarakbi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The main function of an endotracheal tube (ETT cuff is to prevent aspiration. High cuff pressure is usually associated with postoperative complications. We tried to compare cuff inflation guided by pressure volume loop closure (PV-L with those by just to seal technique (JS and assess the postoperative incidence of sore throat, cough and hoarseness. Materials and Methods: In a prospective, randomized clinical trial, 100 patients′ tracheas were intubated. In the first group (n = 50, ETT cuff inflation was guided by PV-L, while in the second group (n. = 50 the ETT cuff was inflated using the JS technique. Intracuff pressures and volumes were measured. The incidence of postoperative cuff-related complications was reported. Results: Demographic data and durations of intubation were comparable between the groups. The use of PV-L was associated with a lesser amount of intracuff air [4.05 (3.7-4.5 vs 5 (4.8-5.5, P < 0.001] and lower cuff pressure than those in the JS group [18.25 (18-19 vs 33 (32-35, P ≤ 0.001]. The incidence of postextubation cuff-related complications was significantly less frequent among the PV-L group patients as compared with the JS group patients (P ≤ 0.009, except for hoarseness of voice, which was less frequent among the PV-L group, but not statistically significant (P ≤ 0.065. Multiple regression models for prediction of intra-cuff pressure after intubation and before extubation revealed a statistically significant association with the technique used for cuff inflation (P < 0.0001. Conclusions : The study confirms that PV-L-guided ETT cuff inflation is an effective way to seal the airway and associates with a lower ETT cuff pressure and lower incidence of cuff-related complications.

  4. Tracheal tube cuff inflation guided by pressure volume loop closure associated with lower postoperative cuff-related complications: Prospective, randomized clinical trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almarakbi, Waleed A.; Kaki, Abdullah M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: The main function of an endotracheal tube (ETT) cuff is to prevent aspiration. High cuff pressure is usually associated with postoperative complications. We tried to compare cuff inflation guided by pressure volume loop closure (PV-L) with those by just to seal technique (JS) and assess the postoperative incidence of sore throat, cough and hoarseness. Materials and Methods: In a prospective, randomized clinical trial, 100 patients’ tracheas were intubated. In the first group (n = 50), ETT cuff inflation was guided by PV-L, while in the second group (n. = 50) the ETT cuff was inflated using the JS technique. Intracuff pressures and volumes were measured. The incidence of postoperative cuff-related complications was reported. Results: Demographic data and durations of intubation were comparable between the groups. The use of PV-L was associated with a lesser amount of intracuff air [4.05 (3.7-4.5) vs 5 (4.8-5.5), P pressure than those in the JS group [18.25 (18-19) vs 33 (32-35), P ≤ 0.001]. The incidence of postextubation cuff-related complications was significantly less frequent among the PV-L group patients as compared with the JS group patients (P ≤ 0.009), except for hoarseness of voice, which was less frequent among the PV-L group, but not statistically significant (P ≤ 0.065). Multiple regression models for prediction of intra-cuff pressure after intubation and before extubation revealed a statistically significant association with the technique used for cuff inflation (P pressure and lower incidence of cuff-related complications. PMID:25191181

  5. Parametric Optimization and Prediction Tool for Excavation and Prospecting Tasks Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Honeybee Robotics therefore proposed to develop a software tool for facilitating prospecting and excavation system trades in support of selecting an optimal...

  6. Radical prostatectomy and positive surgical margins: tumor volume and Gleason score predicts cancer outcome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    La Roca, Ricardo L.R. Felts de, E-mail: Ricardo@delarocaurologia.com.br [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Fonseca, Francisco Paula da, E-mail: fpf@uol.com.br [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Divisao de Urologia. Dept. de Cirurgia Pelvica; Cunha, Isabela Werneck da; Bezerra, Stephania Martins, E-mail: iwerneck@gmail.com, E-mail: stephaniab@gmail.com [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Patologia

    2013-07-01

    Introduction: positive surgical margins (PSMs) are common adverse factors to predict the outcome of a patient submitted to radical prostatectomy (PR). However, not all of these men will follow with biochemical (BCR) or clinical (CR) recurrence. Relationship between PSMs with these recurrent events has to be correlated with other clinicopathological findings in order to recognize more aggressive tumors in order to recommend complementary treatment to these selected patients. Materials and methods: we retrospectively reviewed the outcome of 228 patients submitted to open retropubic RP between March 1991 and June 2008, where 161 had and 67 did not have PSMs. Minimum follow-up time was considered 2 years after surgery. BCR was considered when PSA {>=} 0.2 ng/ml. CR was determined when clinical evidence of tumor appeared. Chi-square test was used to correlate clinical and pathologic variables with PSMs. The estimated 5-year risk of BCR and CR in presence of PSMs was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared to log-rank tests. Results: from the total of 228 patients, 161 (71%) had PSMs, while 67 (29%) had negative surgical margins (NSMs). Prostatic circumferential margin was the most common (43.4%) site. Univariate analysis showed statistically significant (p < 0.001) associations between the presence of PSMs and BCR, but not with CR (p = 0.06). Among 161 patients with PSMs, 61 (37.8%) presented BCR, while 100 (62.8%) did not. Predicting progression-free survival for 5 years, BCR was correlated with pathological stage; Gleason score; pre-treatment PSA; tumor volume in specimen; capsular and perineural invasion; presence and number of PSMs. RC correlated only with angiolymphatic invasion and Gleason score. Considering univariate analyses the clinicopathological factors predicting BCR for 5 years, results statistically significant links with prostate weight; pre-treatment PSA; Gleason score; pathological stage; tumor volume; PSMs; capsular and perineural

  7. Risk scores to facilitate preoperative prediction of transfusion and large volume blood transfusion associated with adult cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goudie, R; Sterne, J A C; Verheyden, V; Bhabra, M; Ranucci, M; Murphy, G J

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this study was to develop two novel risk prediction scores for transfusion and bleeding that would be used to inform treatment decisions, quality assurance, and clinical trial design in cardiac surgery. Clinical data prospectively collected from 26 UK cardiac surgical centres and a single European centre were used to develop two risk prediction models: one for any red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, and the other for large volume blood transfusion (≥4 RBC units; LVBT), an index of severe blood loss. 'Complete case' data were available for 24 749 patients. Multiple imputation was used for missing covariate data (typically data set containing 39 970 patients. Risk models were developed in the complete case data set, with internal validation using leave-one-centre-out cross-validation. The final selected models were fitted to the imputed data set. Final risk scores were then compared with the performance of three existing scores: the Transfusion Risk and Clinical Knowledge score (TRACK), the Transfusion Risk Understanding Scoring Tool (TRUST), and the Papworth Bleeding Risk Score (BRiSc). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.77-0.77) for the any RBC transfusion score and AUC 0.80 (0.79-0.80) for the LVBT score in the imputed data set. The LVBT model also showed excellent discrimination (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.32). In the imputed data set, the AUCs for the TRACK and TRUST scores for any RBC transfusion were 0.71 and 0.71, respectively, and for LVBT the AUC for the BRiSc score was 0.69. Two new risk scores for any RBC transfusion or LVBT among cardiac surgery patients have excellent discrimination, and could inform clinical decision making. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Does Preinterventional Flat-Panel Computer Tomography Pooled Blood Volume Mapping Predict Final Infarct Volume After Mechanical Thrombectomy in Acute Cerebral Artery Occlusion?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, Marlies, E-mail: marlies.wagner@kgu.de [Hospital of Goethe University, Institute of Neuroradiology (Germany); Kyriakou, Yiannis, E-mail: yiannis.kyriakou@siemens.com [Siemens AG, Health Care Sector (Germany); Mesnil de Rochemont, Richard du, E-mail: mesnil@em.uni-frankfurt.de [Hospital of Goethe University, Institute of Neuroradiology (Germany); Singer, Oliver C., E-mail: o.singer@em.uni-frankfurt.de [Hospital of Goethe University, Department of Neurology (Germany); Berkefeld, Joachim, E-mail: berkefeld@em.uni-frankfurt.de [Hospital of Goethe University, Institute of Neuroradiology (Germany)

    2013-08-01

    PurposeDecreased cerebral blood volume is known to be a predictor for final infarct volume in acute cerebral artery occlusion. To evaluate the predictability of final infarct volume in patients with acute occlusion of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) or the distal internal carotid artery (ICA) and successful endovascular recanalization, pooled blood volume (PBV) was measured using flat-panel detector computed tomography (FPD CT).Materials and MethodsTwenty patients with acute unilateral occlusion of the MCA or distal ACI without demarcated infarction, as proven by CT at admission, and successful Thrombolysis in cerebral infarction score (TICI 2b or 3) endovascular thrombectomy were included. Cerebral PBV maps were acquired from each patient immediately before endovascular thrombectomy. Twenty-four hours after recanalization, each patient underwent multislice CT to visualize final infarct volume. Extent of the areas of decreased PBV was compared with the final infarct volume proven by follow-up CT the next day.ResultsIn 15 of 20 patients, areas of distinct PBV decrease corresponded to final infarct volume. In 5 patients, areas of decreased PBV overestimated final extension of ischemia probably due to inappropriate timing of data acquisition and misery perfusion.ConclusionPBV mapping using FPD CT is a promising tool to predict areas of irrecoverable brain parenchyma in acute thromboembolic stroke. Further validation is necessary before routine use for decision making for interventional thrombectomy.

  9. Prediction of Long-term Post-operative Testosterone Replacement Requirement Based on the Pre-operative Tumor Volume and Testosterone Level in Pituitary Macroadenoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Cheng-Chi; Chen, Chung-Ming; Lee, Shih-Tseng; Wei, Kuo-Chen; Pai, Ping-Ching; Toh, Cheng-Hong; Chuang, Chi-Cheng

    2015-11-05

    Non-functioning pituitary macroadenomas (NFPAs) are the most prevalent pituitary macroadenomas. One common symptom of NFPA is hypogonadism, which may require long-term hormone replacement. This study was designed to clarify the association between the pre-operative tumor volume, pre-operative testosterone level, intraoperative resection status and the need of long-term post-operative testosterone replacement. Between 2004 and 2012, 45 male patients with NFPAs were enrolled in this prospective study. All patients underwent transsphenoidal surgery. Hypogonadism was defined as total serum testosterone levels of testosterone to patients with defined hypogonadism or clinical symptoms of hypogonadism. Hormone replacement for longer than 1 year was considered as long-term therapy. The need for long-term post-operative testosterone replacement was significantly associated with larger pre-operative tumor volume (p = 0.0067), and lower pre-operative testosterone level (p = 0.0101). There was no significant difference between the gross total tumor resection and subtotal resection groups (p = 0.1059). The pre-operative tumor volume and testosterone level impact post-operative hypogonadism. By measuring the tumor volume and the testosterone level and by performing adequate tumor resection, surgeons will be able to predict post-operative hypogonadism and the need for long-term hormone replacement.

  10. Establishment the code for prediction of waste volume on NPP decommissioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, W. H.; Park, S. K.; Choi, Y. D.; Kim, I. S.; Moon, J. K. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In practice, decommissioning waste volume can be estimated appropriately by finding the differences between prediction and actual operation and considering the operational problem or supplementary matters. So in the nuclear developed countries such as U.S. or Japan, the decommissioning waste volume is predicted on the basis of the experience in their own decommissioning projects. Because of the contamination caused by radioactive material, decontamination activity and management of radio-active waste should be considered in decommissioning of nuclear facility unlike the usual plant or facility. As the decommissioning activity is performed repeatedly, data for similar activities are accumulated, and optimal strategy can be achieved by comparison with the predicted strategy. Therefore, a variety of decommissioning experiences are the most important. In Korea, there is no data on the decommissioning of commercial nuclear power plants yet. However, KAERI has accumulated the basis decommissioning data of nuclear facility through decommissioning of research reactor (KRR-2) and uranium conversion plant (UCP). And DECOMMIS(DECOMMissioning Information Management System) was developed to provide and manage the whole data of decommissioning project. Two codes, FAC code and WBS code, were established in this process. FAC code is the one which is classified by decommissioning target of nuclear facility, and WBS code is classified by each decommissioning activity. The reason why two codes where created is that the codes used in DEFACS (Decommissioning Facility Characterization management System) and DEWOCS (Decommissioning Work-unit productivity Calculation System) are different from each other, and they were classified each purpose. DEFACS which manages the facility needs the code that categorizes facility characteristics, and DEWOCS which calculates unit productivity needs the code that categorizes decommissioning waste volume. KAERI has accumulated decommissioning data of KRR

  11. Regional Differences in Brain Volume Predict the Acquisition of Skill in a Complex Real-Time Strategy Videogame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basak, Chandramallika; Voss, Michelle W.; Erickson, Kirk I.; Boot, Walter R.; Kramer, Arthur F.

    2011-01-01

    Previous studies have found that differences in brain volume among older adults predict performance in laboratory tasks of executive control, memory, and motor learning. In the present study we asked whether regional differences in brain volume as assessed by the application of a voxel-based morphometry technique on high resolution MRI would also…

  12. Regional Differences in Brain Volume Predict the Acquisition of Skill in a Complex Real-Time Strategy Videogame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basak, Chandramallika; Voss, Michelle W.; Erickson, Kirk I.; Boot, Walter R.; Kramer, Arthur F.

    2011-01-01

    Previous studies have found that differences in brain volume among older adults predict performance in laboratory tasks of executive control, memory, and motor learning. In the present study we asked whether regional differences in brain volume as assessed by the application of a voxel-based morphometry technique on high resolution MRI would also…

  13. Preliminary environmental assessment of selected geopressured - geothermal prospect areas: Louisiana Gulf coast region. Volume I. Comparison of prospect areas on the basis of potential environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newchurch, E.J.; Bachman, A.L.; Bryan, C.F.; Harrison, D.P.; Muller, R.A.; Newman, J.P. Jr.; Smith, C.G. Jr.; Bailey, J.I. Jr.; Kelly, G.G.; Reibert, K.C.

    1978-10-15

    The results of a preliminary environmental assessment of the following geopressured-geothermal prospect areas in the Louisiana Gulf coast region are presented: South Johnson's Bayou, Sweet Lake, Rockefeller Refuge, Southeast Pecan Island, Atchafalaya Bay, and Lafourche Crossing. These prospect areas have been compared to determine their relative environmental acceptability for the test program. Trade-offs among the prospects in terms of potential impacts are highlighted. This assessment was made on the basis of the nature and extent of the proposed testing activities in view of the environmental characteristics of each prospect area: land use, geology and geohydrology, air quality, water resources and quality, ecological systems, and natural hazards. The comparison of prospect areas includes consideration of worst case situations. However, we believe that the test program activities, because they are so small in scale, will not result in major adverse impacts.

  14. A DATA MINING APPROACH TO PREDICT PROSPECTIVE BUSINESS SECTORS FOR LENDING IN RETAIL BANKING USING DECISION TREE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Rafiqul Islam

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available A potential objective of every financial organization is to retain existing customers and attain new prospective customers for long-term. The economic behaviour of customer and the nature of the organization are controlled by a prescribed form called Know Your Customer (KYC in manual banking. Depositor customers in some sectors (business of Jewellery/Gold, Arms, Money exchanger etc are with high risk; whereas in some sectors (Transport Operators, Auto-delear, religious are with medium risk; and in remaining sectors (Retail, Corporate, Service, Farmer etc belongs to low risk. Presently, credit risk for counterparty can be broadly categorized under quantitative and qualitative factors. Although there are many existing systems on customer retention as well as customer attrition systems in bank, these rigorous methods suffers clear and defined approach to disburse loan in business sector. In the paper, we have used records of business customers of a retail commercial bank in the city including rural and urban area of (Tangail city Bangladesh to analyse the major transactional determinants of customers and predicting of a model for prospective sectors in retail bank. To achieve this, data mining approach is adopted for analysing the challenging issues, where pruned decision tree classification technique has been used to develop the model and finally tested its performance with Weka result. Moreover, this paper attempts to build up a model to predict prospective business sectors in retail banking. KEYWORDS Data Mining, Decision Tree, Tree Pruning, Prospective Business Sector, Customer,

  15. Egg volume prediction using machine vision technique based on pappus theorem and artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soltani, Mahmoud; Omid, Mahmoud; Alimardani, Reza

    2015-05-01

    Egg size is one of the important properties of egg that is judged by customers. Accordingly, in egg sorting and grading, the size of eggs must be considered. In this research, a new method of egg volume prediction was proposed without need to measure weight of egg. An accurate and efficient image processing algorithm was designed and implemented for computing major and minor diameters of eggs. Two methods of egg size modeling were developed. In the first method, a mathematical model was proposed based on Pappus theorem. In second method, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique was used to estimate egg volume. The determined egg volume by these methods was compared statistically with actual values. For mathematical modeling, the R(2), Mean absolute error and maximum absolute error values were obtained as 0.99, 0.59 cm(3) and 1.69 cm(3), respectively. To determine the best ANN, R(2) test and RMSEtest were used as selection criteria. The best ANN topology was 2-28-1 which had the R(2) test and RMSEtest of 0.992 and 0.66, respectively. After system calibration, the proposed models were evaluated. The results which indicated the mathematical modeling yielded more satisfying results. So this technique was selected for egg size determination.

  16. Cervical Vertebral Body’s Volume as a New Parameter for Predicting the Skeletal Maturation Stages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youn-Kyung Choi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the correlation between the volumetric parameters derived from the images of the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae by using cone beam computed tomography with skeletal maturation stages and to propose a new formula for predicting skeletal maturation by using regression analysis. We obtained the estimation of skeletal maturation levels from hand-wrist radiographs and volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae bodies from 102 Japanese patients (54 women and 48 men, 5–18 years of age. We performed Pearson’s correlation coefficient analysis and simple regression analysis. All volume parameters derived from the second, third, and fourth cervical vertebrae exhibited statistically significant correlations (P<0.05. The simple regression model with the greatest R-square indicated the fourth-cervical-vertebra volume as an independent variable with a variance inflation factor less than ten. The explanation power was 81.76%. Volumetric parameters of cervical vertebrae using cone beam computed tomography are useful in regression models. The derived regression model has the potential for clinical application as it enables a simple and quantitative analysis to evaluate skeletal maturation level.

  17. Hypomagnesemia in critically ill cancer patients: a prospective study of predictive factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deheinzelin D.

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Hypomagnesemia is the most common electrolyte disturbance seen upon admission to the intensive care unit (ICU. Reliable predictors of its occurrence are not described. The objective of this prospective study was to determine factors predictive of hypomagnesemia upon admission to the ICU. In a single tertiary cancer center, 226 patients with different diagnoses upon entering were studied. Hypomagnesemia was defined by serum levels <1.5 mg/dl. Demographic data, type of cancer, cause of admission, previous history of arrhythmia, cardiovascular disease, renal failure, drug administration (particularly diuretics, antiarrhythmics, chemotherapy and platinum compounds, previous nutrition intake and presence of hypovolemia were recorded for each patient. Blood was collected for determination of serum magnesium, potassium, sodium, calcium, phosphorus, blood urea nitrogen and creatinine levels. Upon admission, 103 (45.6% patients had hypomagnesemia and 123 (54.4% had normomagnesemia. A normal dietary habit prior to ICU admission was associated with normal Mg levels (P = 0.007 and higher average levels of serum Mg (P = 0.002. Postoperative patients (N = 182 had lower levels of serum Mg (0.60 ± 0.14 mmol/l compared with 0.66 ± 0.17 mmol/l, P = 0.006. A stepwise multiple linear regression disclosed that only normal dietary habits (OR = 0.45; CI = 0.26-0.79 and the fact of being a postoperative patient (OR = 2.42; CI = 1.17-4.98 were significantly correlated with serum Mg levels (overall model probability = 0.001. These findings should be used to identify patients at risk for such disturbance, even in other critically ill populations.

  18. Antimicrobial resistance predicts death in Tanzanian children with bloodstream infections: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Msangi Viola

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bloodstream infection is a common cause of hospitalization, morbidity and death in children. The impact of antimicrobial resistance and HIV infection on outcome is not firmly established. Methods We assessed the incidence of bloodstream infection and risk factors for fatal outcome in a prospective cohort study of 1828 consecutive admissions of children aged zero to seven years with signs of systemic infection. Blood was obtained for culture, malaria microscopy, HIV antibody test and, when necessary, HIV PCR. We recorded data on clinical features, underlying diseases, antimicrobial drug use and patients' outcome. Results The incidence of laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection was 13.9% (255/1828 of admissions, despite two thirds of the study population having received antimicrobial therapy prior to blood culture. The most frequent isolates were klebsiella, salmonellae, Escherichia coli, enterococci and Staphylococcus aureus. Furthermore, 21.6% had malaria and 16.8% HIV infection. One third (34.9% of the children with laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection died. The mortality rate from Gram-negative bloodstream infection (43.5% was more than double that of malaria (20.2% and Gram-positive bloodstream infection (16.7%. Significant risk factors for death by logistic regression modeling were inappropriate treatment due to antimicrobial resistance, HIV infection, other underlying infectious diseases, malnutrition and bloodstream infection caused by Enterobacteriaceae, other Gram-negatives and candida. Conclusion Bloodstream infection was less common than malaria, but caused more deaths. The frequent use of antimicrobials prior to blood culture may have hampered the detection of organisms susceptible to commonly used antimicrobials, including pneumococci, and thus the study probably underestimates the incidence of bloodstream infection. The finding that antimicrobial resistance, HIV-infection and malnutrition predict fatal

  19. Structure Prediction Based on Hydrophobic to Hydrophilic Volume Ratios in Small Molecule Amphiphilic Organic Crystals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The structure type for the crystal of 4,4'-bis-(2-hydroxy-ethoxyl)-biphenyl 1 has been predicted by using the previously developed interfacial model for small organic molecules. Based on the calculated hydrophobic to hydrophilic volume of 1, this model predicts the crystal structure to be of lamellar or bicontinuous type, which has been confirmed by the X-ray single-crystal structure analysis (C20H26O6, monoclinic, P21/c, a = 16.084(1), b = 6.0103(4), c = 9.6410(7)(A), β = 103.014(2)°, V = 908.1(1)(A)3, Z = 2, Dc = 1.325 g/cm3, F(000)=388, μ = 0.097 mm-1, MoKα radiation, λ = 0.71073 (A), R = 0.0382 and wR = 0.0882 with I > 2σ(I) for 7121 reflections collected, 1852 unique reflections and 170 parameters). As predicted, the hydrophobic and hydrophilic portions of 1 form in the lamellae. The same interfacial model is applied to other amphilphilic small molecule organic systems for structural type prediction.

  20. Prediction of quantitative intrathoracic fluid volume to diagnose pulmonary oedema using LabVIEW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urooj, Shabana; Khan, M; Ansari, A Q; Lay-Ekuakille, Aimé; Salhan, Ashok K

    2012-01-01

    Pulmonary oedema is a life-threatening disease that requires special attention in the area of research and clinical diagnosis. Computer-based techniques are rarely used to quantify the intrathoracic fluid volume (IFV) for diagnostic purposes. This paper discusses a software program developed to detect and diagnose pulmonary oedema using LabVIEW. The software runs on anthropometric dimensions and physiological parameters, mainly transthoracic electrical impedance (TEI). This technique is accurate and faster than existing manual techniques. The LabVIEW software was used to compute the parameters required to quantify IFV. An equation relating per cent control and IFV was obtained. The results of predicted TEI and measured TEI were compared with previously reported data to validate the developed program. It was found that the predicted values of TEI obtained from the computer-based technique were much closer to the measured values of TEI. Six new subjects were enrolled to measure and predict transthoracic impedance and hence to quantify IFV. A similar difference was also observed in the measured and predicted values of TEI for the new subjects.

  1. The role of mean platelet volume predicting acute exacerbations of cystic fibrosis in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinar Uysal

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship between acute exacerbations and the mean platelet volume (MPV trend in children with cystic fibrosis (CF, to predict the exacerbations. Methods: A total of 46 children with CF and 37 healthy children were enrolled in the study. White blood cell count (WBC, hemoglobin level, platelet count, mean platelet volume (MPV, and mean corpuscular volume (MCV were retrospectively recorded. Results: Our study population consisted of 25 (54.3% males and 21 (45.7% females with CF and 20 (54.0% males and 17 (46.0% females in the healthy control group. The mean age of the CF patients was 6.32 ± 4.9 years and that of the healthy subjects was 7.02 ± 3.15 years. In the acute exacerbation period of CF, the MPV values were lower and WBC and platelet counts were higher than those in the healthy controls (P = 0.00, P = 0.00, P = 0.00, respectively. Besides, in acute exacerbation, the MPV values were lower and the WBC count was higher than the values in the non-exacerbation period (P 0= 0.01, P = 0.00, respectively. In the non-exacerbation period MPV was lower and platelet count was higher when compared to healthy subjects (P = 0.02, P = 0.04, respectively. Conclusion: This study suggests that MPV might be used as a simple, cost effective, diagnostic, predictive indicator for platelet activation in pediatric CF patients related to chronic inflammation, which might be helpful to discriminate or estimate exacerbations.

  2. Predicting the probability and volume of postwildfire debris flows in the intermountain western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, S.H.; Gartner, J.E.; Rupert, M.G.; Michael, J.A.; Rea, A.H.; Parrett, C.

    2010-01-01

    Empirical models to estimate the probability of occurrence and volume of postwildfire debris flows can be quickly implemented in a geographic information system (GIS) to generate debris-flow hazard maps either before or immediately following wildfires. Models that can be used to calculate the probability of debris-flow production from individual drainage basins in response to a given storm were developed using logistic regression analyses of a database from 388 basins located in 15 burned areas located throughout the U.S. Intermountain West. The models describe debris-flow probability as a function of readily obtained measures of areal burned extent, soil properties, basin morphology, and rainfall from short-duration and low-recurrence-interval convective rainstorms. A model for estimating the volume of material that may issue from a basin mouth in response to a given storm was developed using multiple linear regression analysis of a database from 56 basins burned by eight fires. This model describes debris-flow volume as a function of the basin gradient, aerial burned extent, and storm rainfall. Applications of a probability model and the volume model for hazard assessments are illustrated using information from the 2003 Hot Creek fire in central Idaho. The predictive strength of the approach in this setting is evaluated using information on the response of this fire to a localized thunderstorm in August 2003. The mapping approach presented here identifies those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and thus provides information necessary to prioritize areas for postfire erosion mitigation, warnings, and prefire management efforts throughout the Intermountain West.

  3. Combined measurement of fetal lung volume and pulmonary artery resistance index is more accurate for prediction of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome in preterm fetuses: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laban, Mohamed; Mansour, Ghada; El-Kotb, Ahmed; Hassanin, Alaa; Laban, Zina; Saleh, Abdelrahman

    2017-10-02

    To estimate optimal cut-off values for mean fetal lung volume (FLV) and pulmonary artery resistance index (PA-RI) as noninvasive measures to predict neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) in preterm fetuses. A prospective study conducted at Ain Shams University Maternity Hospital, Egypt from May 2015 to July 2017: eighty eligible women diagnosed with preterm labor were recruited at 32-36 weeks' gestation. Before delivery, three-dimensional ultrasound was used to estimate FLV using virtual organ computer-aided analysis (VOCAL), while PA-RI was measured by Doppler ultrasonography. A total of 80 women were examined. 37 (46%) of the newborns developed neonatal RDS. FLV was significantly lower in neonates who developed RDS (p = 0.04), whereas PARI was significantly higher in those who didn't (p = 0.02). Cut-off values of FLV ≤ 27.2 cm(3) and PARI ≥ 0.77 predicted the subsequent development of RDS. Combining both cut-offs generated a more sensitive and specific methodical approach for the prediction of RDS (sensitivity 100%, specificity 88.5%). Measurement of FLV or PA-RI can predict RDS in preterm fetuses. Combined use of both measures bolstered their predictive significance.

  4. Value of quantitative MRI parameters in predicting and evaluating clinical outcome in conservatively treated patients with chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsehaie, J; Poot, D H J; Oei, E H G; Verhaar, J A N; de Vos, R J

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate whether baseline MRI parameters provide prognostic value for clinical outcome, and to study correlation between MRI parameters and clinical outcome. Observational prospective cohort study. Patients with chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy were included and performed a 16-week eccentric calf-muscle exercise program. Outcome measurements were the validated Victorian Institute of Sports Assessment-Achilles (VISA-A) questionnaire and MRI parameters at baseline and after 24 weeks. The following MRI parameters were assessed: tendon volume (Volume), tendon maximum cross-sectional area (CSA), tendon maximum anterior-posterior diameter (AP), and signal intensity (SI). Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) and minimum detectable changes (MDCs) for each parameter were established in a reliability analysis. Twenty-five patients were included and complete follow-up was achieved in 20 patients. The average VISA-A scores increased significantly with 12.3 points (27.6%). The reliability was fair-good for all MRI-parameters with ICCs>0.50. Average tendon volume and CSA decreased significantly with 0.28cm(3) (5.2%) and 4.52mm(2) (4.6%) respectively. Other MRI parameters did not change significantly. None of the baseline MRI parameters were univariately associated with VISA-A change after 24 weeks. MRI SI increase over 24 weeks was positively correlated with the VISA-A score improvement (B=0.7, R(2)=0.490, p=0.02). Tendon volume and CSA decreased significantly after 24 weeks of conservative treatment. As these differences were within the MDC limits, they could be a result of a measurement error. Furthermore, MRI parameters at baseline did not predict the change in symptoms, and therefore have no added value in providing a prognosis in daily clinical practice. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Antimicrobial resistance predicts death in Tanzanian children with bloodstream infections: a prospective cohort study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Blomberg, Bjørn; Manji, Karim P; Urassa, Willy K; Tamim, Bushir S; Mwakagile, Davis S M; Jureen, Roland; Msangi, Viola; Tellevik, Marit G; Holberg-Petersen, Mona; Harthug, Stig; Maselle, Samwel Y; Langeland, Nina

    2007-01-01

    .... We assessed the incidence of bloodstream infection and risk factors for fatal outcome in a prospective cohort study of 1828 consecutive admissions of children aged zero to seven years with signs of systemic infection...

  6. Changes in Stroke Volume Induced by Lung Recruitment Maneuver Predict Fluid Responsiveness in Mechanically Ventilated Patients in the Operating Room.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biais, Matthieu; Lanchon, Romain; Sesay, Musa; Le Gall, Lisa; Pereira, Bruno; Futier, Emmanuel; Nouette-Gaulain, Karine

    2017-02-01

    Lung recruitment maneuver induces a decrease in stroke volume, which is more pronounced in hypovolemic patients. The authors hypothesized that the magnitude of stroke volume reduction through lung recruitment maneuver could predict preload responsiveness. Twenty-eight mechanically ventilated patients with low tidal volume during general anesthesia were included. Heart rate, mean arterial pressure, stroke volume, and pulse pressure variations were recorded before lung recruitment maneuver (application of continuous positive airway pressure of 30 cm H2O for 30 s), during lung recruitment maneuver when stroke volume reached its minimal value, and before and after volume expansion (250 ml saline, 0.9%, infused during 10 min). Patients were considered as responders to fluid administration if stroke volume increased greater than or equal to 10%. Sixteen patients were responders. Lung recruitment maneuver induced a significant decrease in mean arterial pressure and stroke volume in both responders and nonresponders. Changes in stroke volume induced by lung recruitment maneuver were correlated with those induced by volume expansion (r = 0.56; P recruitment maneuver predicted fluid responsiveness with a sensitivity of 88% (95% CI, 62 to 98) and a specificity of 92% (95% CI, 62 to 99). Pulse pressure variations more than 6% before lung recruitment maneuver discriminated responders with a sensitivity of 69% (95% CI, 41 to 89) and a specificity of 75% (95% CI, 42 to 95). The area under receiver operating curves generated for changes in stroke volume induced by lung recruitment maneuver (0.96; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.99) was significantly higher than that for pulse pressure variations (0.72; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.88; P recruitment maneuver could predict preload responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients in the operating room.

  7. Validation that Metabolic Tumor Volume Predicts Outcome in Head and Neck Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Chad; Murphy, James D.; Khong, Brian; La, Trang H.; Kong, Christina; Fischbein, Nancy J.; Colevas, A. Dimitrios; Iagaru, Andrei H.; Graves, Edward E.; Loo, Billy W.; Le, Quynh-Thu

    2011-01-01

    Purpose We have previously reported that metabolic tumor volume (MTV) obtained from pre-treatment FDG PET/CT predicted outcome in patients with head-and-neck cancer (HNC). The purpose of this study is to validate these results on an independent dataset, determine if the primary tumor or nodal MTV drives this correlation, and explore the interaction with p16INK4a status as a surrogate marker for HPV. Methods and Materials The validation dataset in this study included 83 patients with squamous cell HNC who had a FDG PET/CT scan prior to definitive radiotherapy. MTV and SUVmax were calculated for the primary tumor, involved nodes, and the combination of both. The primary endpoint was to validate that MTV predicted progression-free survival and overall survival. Secondary analyses included determining the prognostic utility of primary tumor versus nodal MTV. Results Similar to our prior findings, an increase in total MTV of 17 cm3 (difference between 75th and 25th percentile) was associated with a 2.1 fold increase in the risk of disease progression (p=0.0002), and a 2.0 fold increase in the risk of death (p=0.0048). SUVmax was not associated with either outcome. Primary tumor MTV predicted progression-free (HR=1.94; p<0.0001) and overall (HR=1.57; p<0.0001) survival, whereas nodal MTV did not. In addition, MTV predicted progression-free (HR=4.23; p<0.0001) and overall (HR=3.21; p=0.0029) survival in patients with p16INK4a positive oropharyngeal cancer. Conclusions This study validates our previous findings that MTV independently predicts outcomes in HNC. MTV should be considered as a potential risk stratifying biomarker in future studies of HNC. PMID:22270174

  8. An Adaptive Prediction-Based Approach to Lossless Compression of Floating-Point Volume Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fout, N; Ma, Kwan-Liu

    2012-12-01

    In this work, we address the problem of lossless compression of scientific and medical floating-point volume data. We propose two prediction-based compression methods that share a common framework, which consists of a switched prediction scheme wherein the best predictor out of a preset group of linear predictors is selected. Such a scheme is able to adapt to different datasets as well as to varying statistics within the data. The first method, called APE (Adaptive Polynomial Encoder), uses a family of structured interpolating polynomials for prediction, while the second method, which we refer to as ACE (Adaptive Combined Encoder), combines predictors from previous work with the polynomial predictors to yield a more flexible, powerful encoder that is able to effectively decorrelate a wide range of data. In addition, in order to facilitate efficient visualization of compressed data, our scheme provides an option to partition floating-point values in such a way as to provide a progressive representation. We compare our two compressors to existing state-of-the-art lossless floating-point compressors for scientific data, with our data suite including both computer simulations and observational measurements. The results demonstrate that our polynomial predictor, APE, is comparable to previous approaches in terms of speed but achieves better compression rates on average. ACE, our combined predictor, while somewhat slower, is able to achieve the best compression rate on all datasets, with significantly better rates on most of the datasets.

  9. Post-Radiation Metabolic Tumor Volume Predicts Outcome in Head-and-Neck Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, James D; La, Trang H.; Chu, Karen; Quon, Andrew; Fischbein, Nancy J.; Maxim, Peter G.; Graves, Edward E.; Loo, Billy W.; Le, Quynh-Thu

    2010-01-01

    Purpose To explore the prognostic value of metabolic tumor volume measured on post-radiation 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) imaging in head-and-neck cancer patients. Methods and Materials Forty-seven head-and-neck cancer patients who received pre- and post-treatment PET/CT imaging along with definitive chemoradiotherapy were included in this study. PET/CT parameters evaluated include the maximum standardized uptake value, metabolic tumor volume (MTV2.0-MTV4.0; where MTV2.0 refers to the volume above an SUV threshold of 2.0), and integrated tumor volume. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression models were used to test for association between PET endpoints and disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Results Multiple post-radiation PET endpoints correlated significantly with outcome, however the most robust predictor of disease progression and death was MTV2.0. An increase in MTV2.0 of 21cm3 (difference between 75th and 25th percentile) was associated with an increased risk of disease progression (hazard ratio [HR]=2.5, p=0.0001) and death (HR=2.0, p=0.003). In patients with non-nasopharyngeal carcinoma (non-NPC) histology (n=34), MTV2.0<18cm3 and MTV2.0≥18cm3 yielded 2-year DFS rates of 100% and 63%, respectively (p=0.006) and 2-year OS rates of 100% and 81%, respectively (p=0.009). There was no correlation between MTV2.0 and DFS or OS with NPC histology (n=13). On multivariate analysis only post-radiation MTV2.0 was predictive of DFS (HR=2.47, p=0.0001) and OS (HR=1.98, p=0.003). Conclusions Post-radiation metabolic tumor volume is an adverse prognostic factor in head-and-neck cancer. Biomarkers such as MTV are important for risk stratification, and will be valuable in the future with risk-adapted therapies. PMID:20646870

  10. The construction of risk prediction models using GWAS data and its application to a type 2 diabetes prospective cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daichi Shigemizu

    Full Text Available Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS have identified several novel single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D. Various models using clinical and/or genetic risk factors have been developed for T2D risk prediction. However, analysis considering algorithms for genetic risk factor detection and regression methods for model construction in combination with interactions of risk factors has not been investigated. Here, using genotype data of 7,360 Japanese individuals, we investigated risk prediction models, considering the algorithms, regression methods and interactions. The best model identified was based on a Bayes factor approach and the lasso method. Using nine SNPs and clinical factors, this method achieved an area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.8057 on an independent test set. With the addition of a pair of interaction factors, the model was further improved (p-value 0.0011, AUC 0.8085. Application of our model to prospective cohort data showed significantly better outcome in disease-free survival, according to the log-rank trend test comparing Kaplan-Meier survival curves (p--value 2:09 x 10(-11. While the major contribution was from clinical factors rather than the genetic factors, consideration of genetic risk factors contributed to an observable, though small, increase in predictive ability. This is the first report to apply risk prediction models constructed from GWAS data to a T2D prospective cohort. Our study shows our model to be effective in prospective prediction and has the potential to contribute to practical clinical use in T2D.

  11. Prognostic prediction across a gradient of total tumor volume in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing locoregional therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Han C

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The size and number of tumors are important prognostic indicators for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. However, it is difficult to assess the prognosis for patients with a variable number and size of tumors. By combining these two factors, we investigated the role and prognostic accuracy of total tumor volume (TTV for HCC. Methods A total of 786 patients undergoing locoregional therapy (transarterial chemoembolization, percutaneous radiofrequency ablation and acetic acid or ethanol injection for HCC were prospectively evaluated. Results The mean and median TTV was 177 cm3 (range, 0.1-3,591 cm3 and 21 cm3, respectively. Of all, 38%, 29%, 15%, 7% and 11% of patients had TTV of 3, 10-50 cm3, 50-200 cm3, 200-500 cm3 and >500 cm3, respectively. TTV was significantly larger in patients with higher serum α-fetoprotein (AFP levels or with vascular invasion. The Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, performance status, vascular invasion, AFP level and TTV were significant independent prognostic predictors in the Cox proportional hazards model. After adjustment, patients with TTV 50-200 cm3 (relative risk [RR]: 1.74, p = 0.009, 200-500 cm3 (RR: 2.15, p = 0.006 and >500 cm3 (RR: 3.92, p 3. Conclusions TTV is a feasible prognostic predictor across a wide gradient and can be used to predict the mortality risk of HCC. Selecting appropriate cutoffs of TTV may help refine the design of cancer staging system and treatment planning. Future clinical trials of HCC may include this parameter for mortality risk stratification.

  12. Sonographic prediction of outcome of vacuum deliveries: a multicenter, prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahrs, Birgitte H; Usman, Sana; Ghi, Tullio; Youssef, Aly; Torkildsen, Erik A; Lindtjørn, Elsa; Østborg, Tilde B; Benediktsdottir, Sigurlaug; Brooks, Lis; Harmsen, Lotte; Romundstad, Pål R; Salvesen, Kjell Å; Lees, Christoph C; Eggebø, Torbjørn M

    2017-07-01

    Safe management of the second stage of labor is of great importance. Unnecessary interventions should be avoided and correct timing of interventions should be focused. Ultrasound assessment of fetal position and station has a potential to improve the precision in diagnosing and managing prolonged or arrested labors. The decision to perform vacuum delivery is traditionally based on subjective assessment by digital vaginal examination and clinical expertise and there is currently no method of objectively quantifying the likelihood of successful delivery. Prolonged attempts at vacuum delivery are associated with neonatal morbidity and maternal trauma, especially so if the procedure is unsuccessful and a cesarean is performed. The aim of the study was to assess if ultrasound measurements of fetal position and station can predict duration of vacuum extractions, mode of delivery, and fetal outcome in nulliparous women with prolonged second stage of labor. We performed a prospective cohort study in nulliparous women at term with prolonged second stage of labor in 7 European maternity units from 2013 through 2016. Fetal head position and station were determined using transabdominal and transperineal ultrasound, respectively. Our preliminary clinical experience assessing head-perineum distance prior to vacuum delivery suggested that we should set 25 mm for the power calculation, a level corresponding roughly to +2 below the ischial spines. The main outcome was duration of vacuum extraction in relation to ultrasound measured head-perineum distance with a predefined cut-off of 25 mm, and 220 women were needed to discriminate between groups using a hazard ratio of 1.5 with 80% power and alpha 5%. Secondary outcomes were delivery mode and umbilical artery cord blood samples after birth. The time interval was evaluated using survival analyses, and the outcomes of delivery were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and descriptive statistics. Results were

  13. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  14. A Prospective Randomized Study of the Radiotherapy Volume for Limited-stage Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Preliminary Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao HU

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective Controversies exists with regard to target volumes as far as thoracic radiotherapy (TRT is concerned in the multimodality treatment for limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LSCLC. The aim of this study is to prospectively compare the local control rate, toxicity profiles, and overall survival (OS between patients received different target volumes irradiation after induction chemotherapy. Methods LSCLC patients received 2 cycles of etoposide and cisplatin (EP induction chemotherapy and were randomly assigned to receive TRT to either the post- or pre-chemotherapy tumor extent (GTV-T as study arm and control arm, CTV-N included the positive nodal drainage area for both arms. One to 2 weeks after induction chemotherapy, 45 Gy/30 Fx/19 d TRT was administered concurrently with the third cycle of EP regimen. After that, additional 3 cycles of EP consolidation were administered. Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI was administered to patients with a complete response. Results Thirty-seven and 40 patients were randomly assigned to study arm and control arm. The local recurrence rates were 32.4% and 28.2% respectively (P=0.80; the isolated nodal failure (INF rate were 3.0% and 2.6% respectively (P=0.91; all INF sites were in the ipsilateral supraclavicular fossa. Medastinal N3 disease was the risk factor for INF (P=0.02, OR=14.13, 95%CI: 1.47-136.13. During radiotherapy, grade I, II weight loss was observed in 29.4%, 5.9% and 56.4%, 7.7% patients respectively (P=0.04. Grade 0-I and II-III late pulmonary injury was developed in 97.1%, 2.9% and 86.4%, 15.4% patients respectively (P=0.07. Median survival time was 22.1 months and 26.9 months respectively. The 1 to 3-year OS were 77.9%, 44.4%, 37.3% and 75.8%, 56.3%, 41.7% respectively (P=0.79. Conclusion The preliminary results of this study indicate that irradiant the post-chemotherapy tumor extent (GTV-T and positive nodal drainage area did not decrease local control and overall

  15. Predicting the pressure-volume curve of an elastic microsphere composite

    CERN Document Server

    De Pascalis, Riccardo; Parnell, William J

    2012-01-01

    The effective macroscopic response of nonlinear elastomeric inhomogeneous materials is of great interest in many applications including nonlinear composite materials and soft biological tissues. The interest of the present work is associated with a microsphere composite material, which is modelled as a matrix-inclusion composite. The matrix phase is a homogeneous isotropic nonlinear rubber-like material and the inclusion phase is more complex, consisting of a distribution of sizes of stiff thin spherical shells filled with gas. Experimentally, such materials have been shown to undergo complex deformation under cyclic loading. Here, we consider microspheres embedded in an unbounded host material and assume that a hydrostatic pressure is applied in the "far-field". Taking into account a variety of effects including buckling of the spherical shells, large deformation of the host phase and evolving microstructure, we derive a model predicting the pressure-relative volume change load curves. Nonlinear constitutive...

  16. A multicenter prospective cohort study of volume management after subarachnoid hemorrhage: circulatory characteristics of pulmonary edema after subarachnoid hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obata, Yoshiki; Takeda, Junichi; Sato, Yohei; Ishikura, Hiroyasu; Matsui, Toru; Isotani, Eiji

    2016-08-01

    OBJECT Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is often accompanied by pulmonary complications, which may lead to poor outcomes and death. This study investigated the incidence and cause of pulmonary edema in patients with SAH by using hemodynamic monitoring with PiCCO-plus pulse contour analysis. METHODS A total of 204 patients with SAH were included in a multicenter prospective cohort study to investigate hemodynamic changes after surgical clipping or coil embolization of ruptured cerebral aneurysms by using a PiCCO-plus device. Changes in various hemodynamic parameters after SAH were analyzed statistically. RESULTS Fifty-two patients (25.5%) developed pulmonary edema. Patients with pulmonary edema (PE group) were significantly older than those without pulmonary edema (non-PE group) (p = 0.017). The mean extravascular lung water index was significantly higher in the PE group than in the non-PE group throughout the study period. The pulmonary vascular permeability index (PVPI) was significantly higher in the PE group than in the non-PE group on Day 6 (p = 0.029) and Day 10 (p = 0.011). The cardiac index of the PE group was significantly decreased biphasically on Days 2 and 10 compared with that of the non-PE group. In the early phase (Days 1-5 after SAH), the daily water balance of the PE group was slightly positive. In the delayed phase (Days 6-14 after SAH), the serum C-reactive protein level and the global end-diastolic volume index were significantly higher in the PE group than in the non-PE group, whereas the PVPI tended to be higher in the PE group. CONCLUSIONS Pulmonary edema that occurs in the early and delayed phases after SAH is caused by cardiac failure and inflammatory (i.e., noncardiogenic) conditions, respectively. Measurement of the extravascular lung water index, cardiac index, and PVPI by PiCCO-plus monitoring is useful for identifying pulmonary edema in patients with SAH.

  17. Platelet volume indices as predictive biomarkers for diabetic complications in Type 2 diabetic patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buch, Archana; Kaur, Supreet; Nair, Rahul; Jain, Ambuj

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Platelet volume indices (PVI) such as mean platelet volume (MPV), platelet distribution width (PDW), and platelet-large cell ratio (P-LCR) are the indicators of increased platelet activity and can be considered as potential biomarkers for diabetic complications. PURPOSE: To study PVI in Type 2 diabetics with and without complications in comparison to nondiabetic patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A case–control study was conducted on 300 Type 2 diabetics and 200 nondiabetics. Detailed clinical history regarding duration, hypertension, and complications was taken. PVI was obtained using automated cell counter. Fasting blood glucose, hemoglobin A1c, lipid profile, creatinine were also obtained. Diabetics were further categorized into patients with complications and without complications. Statistical analysis was performed by Statistical Package for the Social Sciences Version 17 (Chicago, IL) Student's t-test and ANOVA test. RESULTS: Platelet count was significantly decreased in diabetics (P = 0.005). MPV was significantly increased in diabetic patients with complications as compared to diabetics without complications and nondiabetic group (P diabetics with and without complications and nondiabetics (P diabetic retinopathy (P = 0.000), nephropathy (P = 0.005), and diabetic foot (P = 0.048). PDW was significantly increased in diabetic retinopathy (P = 0.035) and nephropathy (P = 0.007). P-LCR had no statistically significant correlation with diabetic complications. CONCLUSION: MPV and PDW are predictive biomarkers of diabetic vascular complications. They are more significant in microvascular complications than macrovascular complications. PMID:28367021

  18. Sarcopenia predicts 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Dong-Dong; Chen, Xiao-Xi; Chen, Xi-Yi; Wang, Su-Lin; Shen, Xian; Chen, Xiao-Lei; Yu, Zhen; Zhuang, Cheng-Le

    2016-11-01

    One-year mortality is vital for elderly oncologic patients undergoing surgery. Recent studies have demonstrated that sarcopenia can predict outcomes after major abdominal surgeries, but the association of sarcopenia and 1-year mortality has never been investigated in a prospective study. We conducted a prospective study of elderly patients (≥65 years) who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer from July 2014 to July 2015. Sarcopenia was determined by the measurements of muscle mass, handgrip strength, and gait speed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors associated with 1-year mortality. A total of 173 patients were included, in which 52 (30.1 %) patients were identified as having sarcopenia. Twenty-four (13.9 %) patients died within 1 year of surgery. Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia was an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an increased predictive power for 1-year mortality with the inclusion of sarcopenia, from 0.835 to 0.868. Solely low muscle mass was not predictive of 1-year mortality in the multivariate analysis. Sarcopenia is predictive of 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing gastric cancer surgery. The measurement of muscle function is important for sarcopenia as a preoperative assessment tool.

  19. First-trimester prediction of pre-eclampsia: external validity of algorithms in a prospectively enrolled cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, N; Magder, L S; Blitzer, M G; Baschat, A A

    2014-09-01

    To evaluate the performance of published first-trimester prediction algorithms for pre-eclampsia (PE) in a prospectively enrolled cohort of women. A MEDLINE search identified first-trimester screening-prediction algorithms for early-onset (requiring delivery algorithms were applied to this population to calculate predicted probabilities for PE. The performance of the prediction algorithms was compared with that in the original publication and evaluated for factors explaining differences in prediction. Six early and two late PE prediction algorithms were applicable to 871-2962 women, depending on the variables required. The prevalence of early PE was 1.0-1.2% and of late PE was 4.1-5.0% in these patient subsets. One early PE prediction algorithm performed better than in the original publication (80% detection rate (DR) of early PE for 10% false-positive rate (FPR)); the remaining five prediction algorithms underperformed (29-53% DR). Prediction algorithms for late PE also underperformed (18-31% DR, 10% FPR). Applying the screening cut-offs based on the highest Youden index probability scores correctly detected 40-80% of women developing early PE and 71-82% who developed late PE. Exclusion of patients on first-trimester aspirin resulted in DRs of 40-83% and 65-82% for early and late PE, respectively. First-trimester prediction algorithms for PE share a high negative predictive value if applied to an external population but underperform in their ability to correctly identify women who develop PE. Further research is required to determine the factors responsible for the suboptimal external validity. Copyright © 2014 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Predictive Value of Baseline Electronic Columbia–Suicide Severity Rating Scale (eC–SSRS) Assessments for Identifying Risk of Prospective Reports of Suicidal Behavior During Research Participation

    OpenAIRE

    Greist, John H.; Mundt, James C.; Gwaltney, Chad J.; Jefferson, James W.; Posner, Kelly

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Examine the ability of baseline electronic Columbia–Suicide Severity Rating Scale lifetime suicidal ideation and behavior categories to predict prospective reports of suicidal behavior in psychiatric and non-psychiatric research participants.

  1. Editorial Commentary: Single-Image Slice Magnetic Resonance Imaging Assessments Do Not Predict 3-Dimensional Muscle Volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Jefferson C

    2016-01-01

    No single-image magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) assessment-Goutallier classification, Fuchs classification, or cross-sectional area-is predictive of whole-muscle volume or fatty atrophy of the supraspinatus or infraspinatus. Rather, 3-dimensional MRI measurement of whole-muscle volume and fat-free muscle volume is required and is associated with shoulder strength, which is clinically relevant. Three-dimensional MRI may represent a new gold standard for assessment of the rotator cuff musculature using imaging and may help to predict the feasibility of repair of a rotator cuff tear as well as the postoperative outcome. Unfortunately, 3-dimensional MRI assessment of muscle volume is labor intensive and is not widely available for clinical use.

  2. An analytical model to predict the volume of sand during drilling and production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoof Gholami

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Sand production is an undesired phenomenon occurring in unconsolidated formations due to shear failure and hydrodynamic forces. There have been many approaches developed to predict sand production and prevent it by changing drilling or production strategies. However, assumptions involved in these approaches have limited their applications to very specific scenarios. In this paper, an elliptical model based on the borehole shape is presented to predict the volume of sand produced during the drilling and depletion stages of oil and gas reservoirs. A shape factor parameter is introduced to estimate the changes in the geometry of the borehole as a result of shear failure. A carbonate reservoir from the south of Iran with a solid production history is used to show the application of the developed methodology. Deriving mathematical equations for determination of the shape factor based on different failure criteria indicate that the effect of the intermediate principal stress should be taken into account to achieve an accurate result. However, it should be noticed that the methodology presented can only be used when geomechanical parameters are accurately estimated prior to the production stage when using wells and field data.

  3. An analytical model to predict the volume of sand during drilling and production

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Raoof Gholami; Bernt Aadnoy; Vamegh Rasouli; Nikoo Fakhari

    2016-01-01

    Sand production is an undesired phenomenon occurring in unconsolidated formations due to shear failure and hydrodynamic forces. There have been many approaches developed to predict sand pro-duction and prevent it by changing drilling or production strategies. However, assumptions involved in these approaches have limited their applications to very specific scenarios. In this paper, an elliptical model based on the borehole shape is presented to predict the volume of sand produced during the drilling and depletion stages of oil and gas reservoirs. A shape factor parameter is introduced to estimate the changes in the geometry of the borehole as a result of shear failure. A carbonate reservoir from the south of Iran with a solid production history is used to show the application of the developed meth-odology. Deriving mathematical equations for determination of the shape factor based on different failure criteria indicate that the effect of the intermediate principal stress should be taken into account to achieve an accurate result. However, it should be noticed that the methodology presented can only be used when geomechanical parameters are accurately estimated prior to the production stage when using wells and field data.

  4. Left atrial volume predicts adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tani Tomoko

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aims To prospectively evaluate the relationship between left atrial volume (LAV and the risk of clinical events in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM. Methods We enrolled a total of 141 HCM patients with sinus rhythm and normal pump function, and 102 patients (73 men; mean age, 61 ± 13 years who met inclusion criteria were followed for 30.8 ± 10.0 months. The patients were divided into two groups with or without major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE, a composite of stroke, sudden death, and congestive heart failure. Detailed clinical and echocardiographic data were obtained. Results MACCE occurred in 24 patients (18 strokes, 4 congestive heart failure and 2 sudden deaths. Maximum LAV, minimum LAV, and LAV index (LAVI corrected for body surface area (BSA were significantly greater in patients with MACCE than those without MACCE (maximum LAV: 64.3 ± 25.0 vs. 51.9 ± 16.0 ml, p = 0.005; minimum LAV: 33.9 ± 15.1 vs. 26.2 ± 10.9 ml, p = 0.008; LAVI: 40.1 ± 15.4 vs. 31.5 ± 8.7 ml/mm2, p = 0.0009, while there were no differences in the other echocardiographic parameters. LAV/BSA of ≥ 40.4 ml/m2 to identify patients with cardiovascular complications with a sensitivity of 73% and a specificity of 88%. Conclusion LAVI may be an effective marker for detecting the risk of MACCE in patients with HCM and normal pump function.

  5. Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Altgassen, A.M.; Vetter, N.C.; Phillips, L.H.; Akgün, C.; Kliegel, M.

    2014-01-01

    Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether the

  6. Do Specific Types of Networking Predict Specific Mobility Outcomes? A Two-Year Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Hans-Georg; Moser, Klaus

    2010-01-01

    Previous research has established a general relation between networking and career outcomes, as postulated by theories on protean careers and career self management. We suggest that specific facets of networking behavior differentially affect specific career mobility outcomes over time. In a 2-year prospective study, we examined the impact of six…

  7. Do Specific Types of Networking Predict Specific Mobility Outcomes? A Two-Year Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Hans-Georg; Moser, Klaus

    2010-01-01

    Previous research has established a general relation between networking and career outcomes, as postulated by theories on protean careers and career self management. We suggest that specific facets of networking behavior differentially affect specific career mobility outcomes over time. In a 2-year prospective study, we examined the impact of six…

  8. Predictive factors of postpartum fatigue: a prospective cohort study among working women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.; Beek, A.J. van der; Hendriksen, I.J.M.; Bruinvels, D.J.; Poppel, M.N. van

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate which prepartum determinants contribute to the development of postpartum (PP) fatigue among working women in the Netherlands. Methods A prospective cohort study in 15 Dutch companies was conducted to measure different potential predictors using sel

  9. Prospective assessment of a gene signature potentially predictive of clinical benefit in metastatic melanoma patients following MAGE-A3 immunotherapeutic (PREDICT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saiag, P.; Gutzmer, R.; Ascierto, P. A.; Maio, M.; Grob, J.-J.; Murawa, P.; Dreno, B.; Ross, M.; Weber, J.; Hauschild, A.; Rutkowski, P.; Testori, A.; Levchenko, E.; Enk, A.; Misery, L.; Vanden Abeele, C.; Vojtek, I.; Peeters, O.; Brichard, V. G.; Therasse, P.

    2016-01-01

    Background Genomic profiling of tumor tissue may aid in identifying predictive or prognostic gene signatures (GS) in some cancers. Retrospective gene expression profiling of melanoma and non-small-cell lung cancer led to the characterization of a GS associated with clinical benefit, including improved overall survival (OS), following immunization with the MAGE-A3 immunotherapeutic. The goal of the present study was to prospectively evaluate the predictive value of the previously characterized GS. Patients and methods An open-label prospective phase II trial (‘PREDICT’) in patients with MAGE-A3-positive unresectable stage IIIB-C/IV-M1a melanoma. Results Of 123 subjects who received the MAGE-A3 immunotherapeutic, 71 (58.7%) displayed the predictive GS (GS+). The 1-year OS rate was 83.1%/83.3% in the GS+/GS− populations. The rate of progression-free survival at 12 months was 5.8%/4.1% in GS+/GS− patients. The median time-to-treatment failure was 2.7/2.4 months (GS+/GS−). There was one complete response (GS−) and two partial responses (GS+). The MAGE-A3 immunotherapeutic was similarly immunogenic in both populations and had a clinically acceptable safety profile. Conclusion Treatment of patients with MAGE-A3-positive unresectable stage IIIB-C/IV-M1a melanoma with the MAGE-A3 immunotherapeutic demonstrated an overall 1-year OS rate of 83.5%. GS− and GS+ patients had similar 1-year OS rates, indicating that in this study, GS was not predictive of outcome. Unexpectedly, the objective response rate was lower in this study than in other studies carried out in the same setting with the MAGE-A3 immunotherapeutic. Investigation of a GS to predict clinical benefit to adjuvant MAGE-A3 immunotherapeutic treatment is ongoing in another melanoma study. This study is registered at www.clinicatrials.gov NCT00942162. PMID:27502712

  10. Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 2; BFaNS User's Manual and Developer's Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Bruce L.

    2010-01-01

    Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the second volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by step-by-step instructions for installing and running BFaNS. It concludes with technical documentation of the BFaNS computer program.

  11. Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 1; Setup_BFaNS User's Manual and Developer's Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Bruce L.

    2010-01-01

    Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the first volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User's Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by step-by-step instructions for installing and running Setup_BFaNS. It concludes with technical documentation of the Setup_BFaNS computer program.

  12. Validation that Metabolic Tumor Volume Predicts Outcome in Head-and-Neck Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tang, Chad; Murphy, James D.; Khong, Brian; La, Trang H. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Kong, Christina [Department of Pathology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Fischbein, Nancy J. [Department of Radiology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Colevas, A. Dimitrios [Division of Medical Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Iagaru, Andrei H. [Department of Radiology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Graves, Edward E.; Loo, Billy W. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Le, Quynh-Thu, E-mail: qle@stanford.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2012-08-01

    Purpose: We have previously reported that metabolic tumor volume (MTV) obtained from pretreatment {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxydeglucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET)/ computed tomography (CT) predicted outcome in patients with head-and-neck cancer (HNC). The purpose of this study was to validate these results on an independent dataset, determine whether the primary tumor or nodal MTV drives this correlation, and explore the interaction with p16{sup INK4a} status as a surrogate marker for human papillomavirus (HPV). Methods and Materials: The validation dataset in this study included 83 patients with squamous cell HNC who had a FDG PET/CT scan before receiving definitive radiotherapy. MTV and maximum standardized uptake value (SUV{sub max}) were calculated for the primary tumor, the involved nodes, and the combination of both. The primary endpoint was to validate that MTV predicted progression-free survival and overall survival. Secondary analyses included determining the prognostic utility of primary tumor vs. nodal MTV. Results: Similarly to our prior findings, an increase in total MTV of 17 cm{sup 3} (difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles) was associated with a 2.1-fold increase in the risk of disease progression (p = 0.0002) and a 2.0-fold increase in the risk of death (p = 0.0048). SUV{sub max} was not associated with either outcome. Primary tumor MTV predicted progression-free (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.94; p < 0.0001) and overall (HR = 1.57; p < 0.0001) survival, whereas nodal MTV did not. In addition, MTV predicted progression-free (HR = 4.23; p < 0.0001) and overall (HR = 3.21; p = 0.0029) survival in patients with p16{sup INK4a}-positive oropharyngeal cancer. Conclusions: This study validates our previous findings that MTV independently predicts outcomes in HNC. MTV should be considered as a potential risk-stratifying biomarker in future studies of HNC.

  13. Preliminary environmental assessment of selected geopressured - geothermal prospect areas: Louisiana Gulf Coast Region. Volume II. Environmental baseline data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newchurch, E.J.; Bachman, A.L.; Bryan, C.F.; Harrison, D.P.; Muller, R.A.; Newman, J.P. Jr.; Smith, C.G. Jr.; Bailey, J.I. Jr.; Kelly, G.G.; Reibert, K.C.

    1978-10-15

    A separate section is presented for each of the six prospect areas studied. Each section includes a compilation and discussion of environmental baseline data derived from existing sources. The data are arranged as follows: geology and geohydrology, air quality, water resources and flood hazards, ecological systems, and land use. When data specific to the prospect were not available, regional data are reported. (MHR)

  14. Critical Combinations of Radiation Dose and Volume Predict Intelligence Quotient and Academic Achievement Scores After Craniospinal Irradiation in Children With Medulloblastoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merchant, Thomas E., E-mail: thomas.merchant@stjude.org [Division of Radiation Oncology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Schreiber, Jane E. [Department of Psychology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Wu, Shengjie [Department of Biostatistcs, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Lukose, Renin [Division of Radiation Oncology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Xiong, Xiaoping [Department of Biostatistcs, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Gajjar, Amar [Department of Oncology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States)

    2014-11-01

    Purpose: To prospectively follow children treated with craniospinal irradiation to determine critical combinations of radiation dose and volume that would predict for cognitive effects. Methods and Materials: Between 1996 and 2003, 58 patients (median age 8.14 years, range 3.99-20.11 years) with medulloblastoma received risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation followed by dose-intense chemotherapy and were followed longitudinally with multiple cognitive evaluations (through 5 years after treatment) that included intelligence quotient (estimated intelligence quotient, full-scale, verbal, and performance) and academic achievement (math, reading, spelling) tests. Craniospinal irradiation consisted of 23.4 Gy for average-risk patients (nonmetastatic) and 36-39.6 Gy for high-risk patients (metastatic or residual disease >1.5 cm{sup 2}). The primary site was treated using conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy using a 2-cm clinical target volume margin. The effect of clinical variables and radiation dose to different brain volumes were modeled to estimate cognitive scores after treatment. Results: A decline with time for all test scores was observed for the entire cohort. Sex, race, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt status had a significant impact on baseline scores. Age and mean radiation dose to specific brain volumes, including the temporal lobes and hippocampi, had a significant impact on longitudinal scores. Dichotomized dose distributions at 25 Gy, 35 Gy, 45 Gy, and 55 Gy were modeled to show the impact of the high-dose volume on longitudinal test scores. The 50% risk of a below-normal cognitive test score was calculated according to mean dose and dose intervals between 25 Gy and 55 Gy at 10-Gy increments according to brain volume and age. Conclusions: The ability to predict cognitive outcomes in children with medulloblastoma using dose-effects models for different brain subvolumes will improve treatment planning, guide intervention, and help

  15. Premorbid teacher-rated social functioning predicts adult schizophrenia-spectrum disorder: A high-risk prospective investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsuji, Thomas; Kline, Emily; Sorensen, Holger J.;

    2013-01-01

    who were at genetic high-risk for schizophrenia and controls (n=244). The teacher-rated social functioning scale significantly predicted psychiatric outcomes (schizophrenia-spectrum vs. other psychiatric disorder vs. no mental illness). Poor premorbid social functioning appears to constitute a marker......Social functioning deficits are a core component of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and may emerge years prior to the onset of diagnosable illness. The current study prospectively examines the relation between teacher-rated childhood social dysfunction and later mental illness among participants...

  16. Sonographic Prediction of Body Fat Volume (Subcutaneous and Visceral Fat in Cardiovascular Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Soleymanzadeh

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Inappropriate body composition represents impaired energy and nutrient intake and can be a risk factor for many diseases, especially for cardiovascular disease. Different methods have been suggested for the estimation of body fat volume and its distribution. However, they may be either expensive or hazardous for some groups of patients. Sonography is a very accessible technique, which may be used for the evaluation of visceral and subcutaneous fat volume. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sonographic prediction of body fat and its distribution in subcutaneous and visceral compartments.Methods: During a three-month period, we conducted sonographic evaluations for visceral and subcutaneous fat in 106 patients who were admitted to our hospital. The subcutaneous fat was measured at the para-umbilical region and visceral fat was measured in the right para-renal space. The results were compared with the data obtained from the body mass index(BMI and bioelectric impedance analysis.Results: The mean age of the patients was 58.8 years, and the mean BMI was26.48 ± 0.33. The mean values of fat percent and fat mass obtained by the electric-method were 31.07 ± 0.81% and 22.12 ± 0.68 kg, respectively. The respective mean values of subcutaneous and visceral fat obtained by sonography were 20.50±0.56 mm and 24.14 ± 0.58 mm. The correlationbetween BMI and subcutaneous fat was 0.85 (p value < 0.0001 and the correlation between BMI and visceral fat was0.46(p value < 0.0001.Conclusion: Sonography is a reliable and available method for the estimation of body fat and its distribution in cardiovascularpatients, in subcutaneous and visceral compartments.

  17. Prospective validation of a predictive model that identifies homeless people at risk of re-presentation to the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Gaye; Hepworth, Graham; Weiland, Tracey; Manias, Elizabeth; Gerdtz, Marie Frances; Kelaher, Margaret; Dunt, David

    2012-02-01

    To prospectively evaluate the accuracy of a predictive model to identify homeless people at risk of representation to an emergency department. A prospective cohort analysis utilised one month of data from a Principal Referral Hospital in Melbourne, Australia. All visits involving people classified as homeless were included, excluding those who died. Homelessness was defined as living on the streets, in crisis accommodation, in boarding houses or residing in unstable housing. Rates of re-presentation, defined as the total number of visits to the same emergency department within 28 days of discharge from hospital, were measured. Performance of the risk screening tool was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and likelihood ratios. Over the study period (April 1, 2009 to April 30, 2009), 3298 presentations from 2888 individuals were recorded. The homeless population accounted for 10% (n=327) of all visits and 7% (n=211) of all patients. A total of 90 (43%) homeless people re-presented to the emergency department. The predictive model included nine variables and achieved 98% (CI, 0.92-0.99) sensitivity and 66% (CI, 0.57-0.74) specificity. The positive predictive value was 68% and the negative predictive value was 98%. The positive likelihood ratio 2.9 (CI, 2.2-3.7) and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.03 (CI, 0.01-0.13). The high emergency department re-presentation rate for people who were homeless identifies unresolved psychosocial health needs. The emergency department remains a vital access point for homeless people, particularly after hours. The risk screening tool is key to identify medical and social aspects of a homeless patient's presentation to assist early identification and referral. Copyright © 2012 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Empirical models to predict the volumes of debris flows generated by recently burned basins in the western U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartner, J.E.; Cannon, S.H.; Santi, P.M.; deWolfe, V.G.

    2008-01-01

    Recently burned basins frequently produce debris flows in response to moderate-to-severe rainfall. Post-fire hazard assessments of debris flows are most useful when they predict the volume of material that may flow out of a burned basin. This study develops a set of empirically-based models that predict potential volumes of wildfire-related debris flows in different regions and geologic settings. The models were developed using data from 53 recently burned basins in Colorado, Utah and California. The volumes of debris flows in these basins were determined by either measuring the volume of material eroded from the channels, or by estimating the amount of material removed from debris retention basins. For each basin, independent variables thought to affect the volume of the debris flow were determined. These variables include measures of basin morphology, basin areas burned at different severities, soil material properties, rock type, and rainfall amounts and intensities for storms triggering debris flows. Using these data, multiple regression analyses were used to create separate predictive models for volumes of debris flows generated by burned basins in six separate regions or settings, including the western U.S., southern California, the Rocky Mountain region, and basins underlain by sedimentary, metamorphic and granitic rocks. An evaluation of these models indicated that the best model (the Western U.S. model) explains 83% of the variability in the volumes of the debris flows, and includes variables that describe the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30%, the basin area burned at moderate and high severity, and total storm rainfall. This model was independently validated by comparing volumes of debris flows reported in the literature, to volumes estimated using the model. Eighty-seven percent of the reported volumes were within two residual standard errors of the volumes predicted using the model. This model is an improvement over previous models in

  19. Long-term prediction of emergency department revenue and visitor volume using autoregressive integrated moving average model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chieh-Fan; Ho, Wen-Hsien; Chou, Huei-Yin; Yang, Shu-Mei; Chen, I-Te; Shi, Hon-Yi

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

  20. Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chieh-Fan Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

  1. Prospective prediction of major depressive disorder from cortisol awakening responses in adolescence

    OpenAIRE

    Adam, Emma K.; Doane, Leah D.; Zinbarg, Richard E.; Mineka, Susan; Craske, Michelle G.; Griffith, James W.

    2010-01-01

    Levels of the stress-sensitive hormone cortisol increase dramatically in the first 30-40 minutes after waking, an effect known as the cortisol awakening response (CAR). There is considerable cross-sectional evidence that psychosocial stress is associated with an increased CAR, and the CAR has been found to be altered in the presence of stress-related diseases, including Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). To date, no prospective longitudinal studies have examined whether individual differences i...

  2. Does childhood bullying predict eating disorder symptoms? A prospective, longitudinal analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Copeland, William E.; Bulik, Cynthia M.; Zucker, Nancy; Wolke, Dieter; Lereya, Suzet Tanya; Costello, Elizabeth Jane

    2015-01-01

    Objective:\\ud Bullying is a common childhood experience with enduring psychosocial consequences. The aim of this study was to test whether bullying increases risk for eating disorder symptoms.\\ud \\ud Method:\\ud Ten waves of data on 1,420 participants between ages 9 and 25 were used from the prospective population-based Great Smoky Mountains Study. Structured interviews were used to assess bullying involvement and symptoms of anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa as well as associated features....

  3. Maternal feeding practices predict weight gain and obesogenic eating behaviors in young children: a prospective study

    OpenAIRE

    Rodgers Rachel F; Paxton Susan J; Massey Robin; Campbell Karen J; Wertheim Eleanor H; Skouteris Helen; Gibbons Kay

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Background Maternal feeding practices have been proposed to play an important role in early child weight gain and obesogenic eating behaviors. However, to date longitudinal investigations in young children exploring these relationships have been lacking. The aim of the present study was to explore prospective relationships between maternal feeding practices, child weight gain and obesogenic eating behaviors in 2-year-old children. The competing hypothesis that child eating behaviors ...

  4. Do race, neglect, and childhood poverty predict physical health in adulthood? A multilevel prospective analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Nikulina, Valentina

    2013-01-01

    Childhood neglect and poverty often co-occur and both have been linked to poor physical health outcomes. In addition, Blacks have higher rates of childhood poverty and tend to have worse health than Whites. This paper examines the unique and interacting effects of childhood neglect, race, and family and neighborhood poverty on adult physical health outcomes. This prospective cohort design study uses a sample (N = 675) of court-substantiated cases of childhood neglect and matched controls foll...

  5. Predicting the film and lens water volume between soil particles using particle size distribution data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, M. H.; Meskini-Vishkaee, F.

    2012-12-01

    SummaryWe develop four conceptual approaches to quantify the volume of water lenses between soil particles (ɛi) and adsorbed water films (δi) coating soil particles based on soil Particle Size Distribution (PSD) data. Method 1 is based on expression of the ɛi as matric suction independent pendular rings and method 2 is based on expression of the ɛi as function of matric suction. Methods 3 and 4 are based on the coupling of δi estimated with van der Waals and electrostatic forces, with ɛi estimated with methods 1 and 2 respectively. We show that the filling angle of the lens water is independent of surface tension but increases with the porosity. The four methods are applied to predict effects of ɛi and δi on Soil Moisture Characteristics (SMC) in eighty soil samples selected from UNSODA database. The total component of the ɛi in soil water content ranged from 0.0111 (L3 L-3) to 0.1604 (L3 L-3), with the average of 0.0703 (L3 L-3) for method 1 and from 0.0082 (L3 L-3) to 0.0523 (L3 L-3), with the average of 0.0237 (L3 L-3) for method 2. The component of δi is less than 0.0121 of each pore water content. Results showed that for methods 1 and 2, the component of the ɛi in the soil water content was partially relevant for the prediction of SMC, especially in dry range. Moreover, the accuracy of the method 1 was slightly greater than that of the method 2. We attribute the methods error to the roughness of soil particles, high surface energy content of clay particles and, to the simplified pore geometric concepts that does not effectively reflect the pore geometry. We conclude that the main advantage of the present approaches is developing two different methods for estimation of the volume of the lens water by using only the PSD data and bulk density which are measured easily.

  6. Can FDG PET predict radiation treatment outcome in head and neck cancer? Results of a prospective study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schinagl, Dominic A.X.; Span, Paul N.; Kaanders, Johannes H.A.M. [Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Department of Radiation Oncology, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Oyen, Wim J. [Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nijmegen (Netherlands)

    2011-08-15

    In head and neck cancer (HNC) various treatment strategies have been developed to improve outcome, but selecting patients for these intensified treatments remains difficult. Therefore, identification of novel pretreatment assays to predict outcome is of interest. In HNC there are indications that pretreatment tumour {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake may be an independent prognostic factor. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of FDG uptake and CT-based and FDG PET-based primary tumour volume measurements in patients with HNC treated with (chemo)radiotherapy. A total of 77 patients with stage II-IV HNC who were eligible for definitive (chemo)radiotherapy underwent coregistered pretreatment CT and FDG PET. The gross tumour volume of the primary tumour was determined on the CT (GTV{sub CT}) and FDG PET scans. Five PET segmentation methods were applied: interpreting FDG PET visually (PET{sub VIS}), applying an isocontour at a standardized uptake value (SUV) of 2.5 (PET{sub 2.5}), using fixed thresholds of 40% and 50% (PET{sub 40%}, PET{sub 50%}) of the maximum intratumoral FDG activity (SUV{sub MAX}) and applying an adaptive threshold based on the signal-to-background (PET{sub SBR}). Mean FDG uptake for each PET-based volume was recorded (SUV{sub mean}). Subsequently, to determine the metabolic volume, the integrated SUV was calculated as the product of PET-based volume and SUV{sub mean}. All these variables were analysed as potential predictors of local control (LC), regional recurrence-free survival (RRFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). In oral cavity/oropharynx tumours PET{sub VIS} was the only volume-based method able to predict LC. Both PET{sub VIS} and GTV{sub CT} were able to predict DMFS, DFS and OS in these subsites. Integrated SUVs were associated with LC, DMFS, DFS and OS, while SUV{sub mean} and SUV{sub MAX} were not. In hypopharyngeal/laryngeal tumours none of the

  7. Early changes of parotid density and volume predict modifications at the end of therapy and intensity of acute xerostomia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belli, Maria Luisa; Broggi, Sara [Ospedale San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Medical Physics, Milano (Italy); Scalco, Elisa; Rizzo, Giovanna [CNR, Istituto di Bioimmagini e Fisiologia Molecolare, Milano (Italy); Sanguineti, Giuseppe [Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Department of Radiation Oncology, Rome (Italy); Fiorino, Claudio; Cattaneo, Giovanni Mauro [Ospedale San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Medical Physics, Milano (Italy); CNR, Istituto di Bioimmagini e Fisiologia Molecolare, Milano (Italy); Dinapoli, Nicola; Valentini, Vincenzo [Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Radiotherapy, Rome (Italy); Ricchetti, Francesco [Ospedale Sacro Cuore, Radiotherapy, Negrar (Italy)

    2014-11-15

    To quantitatively assess the predictive power of early variations of parotid gland volume and density on final changes at the end of therapy and, possibly, on acute xerostomia during IMRT for head-neck cancer. Data of 92 parotids (46 patients) were available. Kinetics of the changes during treatment were described by the daily rate of density (rΔρ) and volume (rΔvol) variation based on weekly diagnostic kVCT images. Correlation between early and final changes was investigated as well as the correlation with prospective toxicity data (CTCAEv3.0) collected weekly during treatment for 24/46 patients. A higher rΔρ was observed during the first compared to last week of treatment (-0,50 vs -0,05HU, p-value = 0.0001). Based on early variations, a good estimation of the final changes may be obtained (Δρ: AUC = 0.82, p = 0.0001; Δvol: AUC = 0.77, p = 0.0001). Both early rΔρ and rΔvol predict a higher ''mean'' acute xerostomia score (≥ median value, 1.57; p-value = 0.01). Median early density rate changes for patients with mean xerostomia score ≥ / < 1.57 were -0.98 vs -0.22 HU/day respectively (p = 0.05). Early density and volume variations accurately predict final changes of parotid glands. A higher longitudinally assessed score of acute xerostomia is well predicted by higher rΔρ and rΔvol in the first two weeks of treatment: best cut-off values were -0.50 HU/day and -380 mm{sup 3}/day for rΔρ and rΔvol respectively. Further studies are necessary to definitively assess the potential of early density/volume changes in identifying more sensitive patients at higher risk of experiencing xerostomia. (orig.) [German] Ziel der Studie ist die Untersuchung der praediktiven Aussagekraft von fruehen Veraenderungen in Volumen und Dichte der Ohrspeicheldruese in Bezug auf die finale Verformung zum Ende der Therapie sowie das Risiko von Xerostomie waehrend der intesitaetsmodulierten Strahlentherapie (IMRT) bei Kopf und Hals Tumoren. Die Studie

  8. Does Cytoreductive Prostatectomy Really Have an Impact on Prognosis in Prostate Cancer Patients with Low-volume Bone Metastasis? Results from a Prospective Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steuber, Thomas; Berg, Kasper D; Røder, Martin A; Brasso, Klaus; Iversen, Peter; Huland, Hartwig; Tiebel, Anne; Schlomm, Thorsten; Haese, Alexander; Salomon, Georg; Budäus, Lars; Tilki, Derya; Heinzer, Hans; Graefen, Markus; Mandel, Philipp

    2017-07-08

    The impact of cytoreductive radical prostatectomy (CRP) on oncological outcomes in patients with prostate cancer (PCa) and distant metastases has been demonstrated by retrospective data with their potential selection bias. Using prospective institutional data, we compared the outcomes between 43 PCa patients with low-volume bone metastases (1-3 lesions) undergoing CRP (median follow-up 32.7 mo) and 40 patients receiving best systemic therapy (BST; median follow-up 82.2 mo). The inclusion criteria for both cohorts were identical. So far, no significant difference in castration resistant-free survival (p=0.92) or overall survival (p=0.25) has been detected. Compared to recent reports, the outcomes for our control group are more favorable, indicating a potential selection bias in the previous retrospective studies. Therefore, the unclear oncological effect has to be weighed against the potential risks of CRP. However, patients benefit from a significant reduction in locoregional complications (7.0% vs 35%; p<0.01) when undergoing CRP. In this study we analyzed the impact of surgery in patients with prostate cancer and bone metastases. Using prospective data, we could not show a significant benefit of surgery on survival, but the rate of locoregional complications was lower. Therefore, patients should be treated within prospective trials evaluating the role of cytoreductive prostatectomy in low-volume, bone metastatic prostate cancer. Copyright © 2017 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Serum estradiol levels predict survival and acute kidney injury in patients with septic shock--a prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Yih Feng

    Full Text Available Sex hormones have diverse immunomodulatory effects that may be involved in the pathogenesis of sepsis. However, the roles of serum sex hormones in predicting outcomes and the severity of organ dysfunction, especially acute kidney injury (AKI, in septic shock patients remains controversial. We prospectively enrolled 107 clinically diagnosed pneumonia-related septic shock patients and serum sex hormone levels were measured on the day of shock onset. The aim of the present study was to investigate the predictive values of serum sex hormones levels for 28-day mortality and organs dysfunction, especially AKI. Compared with survivors, serum levels of progesterone (p40 pg/mL (p = 0.047 and APACHE II score ≥25 (p = 40 pg/mL was also an independent predictor of concomitant AKI (p = 0.002 and correlated well with severity of renal dysfunction using RIFLE classification. Elevated serum estradiol levels also predicted the development of new AKI within 28 days of shock onset (p = 0.013. In conclusion, serum estradiol levels appear to have value in predicting 28-day mortality in septic shock patients. Increased serum estradiol levels are associated with higher severity of concomitant AKI and predict development of new AKI.

  10. Information processing biases concurrently and prospectively predict depressive symptoms in adolescents: Evidence from a self-referent encoding task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Samantha L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2016-01-01

    Negative information processing biases have been hypothesised to serve as precursors for the development of depression. The current study examined negative self-referent information processing and depressive symptoms in a community sample of adolescents (N = 291, Mage at baseline = 12.34 ± 0.61, 53% female, 47.4% African-American, 49.5% Caucasian and 3.1% Biracial). Participants completed a computerised self-referent encoding task (SRET) and a measure of depressive symptoms at baseline and completed an additional measure of depressive symptoms nine months later. Several negative information processing biases on the SRET were associated with concurrent depressive symptoms and predicted increases in depressive symptoms at follow-up. Findings partially support the hypothesis that negative information processing biases are associated with depressive symptoms in a nonclinical sample of adolescents, and provide preliminary evidence that these biases prospectively predict increases in depressive symptoms.

  11. The Natural History and Predictive Factors of Voided Volume in Older Men : The Krimpen Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, Boris; Kok, Esther T.; Blanker, Marco H.; Martens, Edwin P.; Bohnen, Arthur M.; Bosch, J. L. H. Ruud

    Purpose: Although functional bladder capacity, as expressed by maximum voided volume and other frequency-volume chart parameters, are important determinants of lower urinary tract symptoms, to our knowledge no population based data are available on changes in voided volume. We determined changes in

  12. Validation of the RRE-90 Scale to Predict Stroke Risk after Transient Symptoms with Infarction: A Prospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Song

    Full Text Available The risk of stroke after a transient ischemic attack (TIA for patients with a positive diffusion-weighted image (DWI, i.e., transient symptoms with infarction (TSI, is much higher than for those with a negative DWI. The aim of this study was to validate the predictive value of a web-based recurrence risk estimator (RRE; http://www.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/RRE/ of TSI.Data from the prospective hospital-based TIA database of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University were analyzed. The RRE and ABCD2 scores were calculated within 7 days of symptom onset. The predictive outcome was ischemic stroke occurrence at 90 days. The receiver-operating characteristics curves were plotted, and the predictive value of the two models was assessed by computing the C statistics.A total of 221 eligible patients were prospectively enrolled, of whom 46 (20.81% experienced a stroke within 90 days. The 90-day stroke risk in high-risk TSI patients (RRE ≥4 was 3.406-fold greater than in those at low risk (P <0.001. The C statistic of RRE (0.681; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.592-0.771 was statistically higher than that of ABCD2 score (0.546; 95% CI, 0.454-0.638; Z = 2.115; P = 0.0344 at 90 days.The RRE score had a higher predictive value than the ABCD2 score for assessing the 90-day risk of stroke after TSI.

  13. Predicting traffic volumes and estimating the effects of shocks in massive transportation systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Ricardo; Kang, Soong Moon; Airoldi, Edoardo M

    2015-05-05

    Public transportation systems are an essential component of major cities. The widespread use of smart cards for automated fare collection in these systems offers a unique opportunity to understand passenger behavior at a massive scale. In this study, we use network-wide data obtained from smart cards in the London transport system to predict future traffic volumes, and to estimate the effects of disruptions due to unplanned closures of stations or lines. Disruptions, or shocks, force passengers to make different decisions concerning which stations to enter or exit. We describe how these changes in passenger behavior lead to possible overcrowding and model how stations will be affected by given disruptions. This information can then be used to mitigate the effects of these shocks because transport authorities may prepare in advance alternative solutions such as additional buses near the most affected stations. We describe statistical methods that leverage the large amount of smart-card data collected under the natural state of the system, where no shocks take place, as variables that are indicative of behavior under disruptions. We find that features extracted from the natural regime data can be successfully exploited to describe different disruption regimes, and that our framework can be used as a general tool for any similar complex transportation system.

  14. Impact erosion prediction using the finite volume particle method with improved constitutive models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leguizamón, Sebastián; Jahanbakhsh, Ebrahim; Maertens, Audrey; Vessaz, Christian; Alimirzazadeh, Siamak; Avellan, François

    2016-11-01

    Erosion damage in hydraulic turbines is a common problem caused by the high- velocity impact of small particles entrained in the fluid. In this investigation, the Finite Volume Particle Method is used to simulate the three-dimensional impact of rigid spherical particles on a metallic surface. Three different constitutive models are compared: the linear strainhardening (L-H), Cowper-Symonds (C-S) and Johnson-Cook (J-C) models. They are assessed in terms of the predicted erosion rate and its dependence on impact angle and velocity, as compared to experimental data. It has been shown that a model accounting for strain rate is necessary, since the response of the material is significantly tougher at the very high strain rate regime caused by impacts. High sensitivity to the friction coefficient, which models the cutting wear mechanism, has been noticed. The J-C damage model also shows a high sensitivity to the parameter related to triaxiality, whose calibration appears to be scale-dependent, not exclusively material-determined. After calibration, the J-C model is capable of capturing the material's erosion response to both impact velocity and angle, whereas both C-S and L-H fail.

  15. Xenobiotic metabolizing enzyme gene polymorphisms predict response to lung volume reduction surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DeMeo Dawn L

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the National Emphysema Treatment Trial (NETT, marked variability in response to lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS was observed. We sought to identify genetic differences which may explain some of this variability. Methods In 203 subjects from the NETT Genetics Ancillary Study, four outcome measures were used to define response to LVRS at six months: modified BODE index, post-bronchodilator FEV1, maximum work achieved on a cardiopulmonary exercise test, and University of California, San Diego shortness of breath questionnaire. Sixty-four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs were genotyped in five genes previously shown to be associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease susceptibility, exercise capacity, or emphysema distribution. Results A SNP upstream from glutathione S-transferase pi (GSTP1; p = 0.003 and a coding SNP in microsomal epoxide hydrolase (EPHX1; p = 0.02 were each associated with change in BODE score. These effects appeared to be strongest in patients in the non-upper lobe predominant, low exercise subgroup. A promoter SNP in EPHX1 was associated with change in BODE score (p = 0.008, with the strongest effects in patients with upper lobe predominant emphysema and low exercise capacity. One additional SNP in GSTP1 and three additional SNPs in EPHX1 were associated (p Conclusion Genetic variants in GSTP1 and EPHX1, two genes encoding xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes, were predictive of response to LVRS. These polymorphisms may identify patients most likely to benefit from LVRS.

  16. Stroke volume variation does not predict fluid responsiveness in patients with septic shock on pressure support ventilation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perner, A; Faber, T

    2006-01-01

    Stroke volume variation (SVV)--as measured by the pulse contour cardiac output (PiCCO) system--predicts the cardiac output response to a fluid challenge in patients on controlled ventilation. Whether this applies to patients on pressure support ventilation is unknown....

  17. Prediction of Currency Volume Issued in Taiwan Using a Hybrid Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Regression Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuehjen E. Shao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Because the volume of currency issued by a country always affects its interest rate, price index, income levels, and many other important macroeconomic variables, the prediction of currency volume issued has attracted considerable attention in recent years. In contrast to the typical single-stage forecast model, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting approach to predict the volume of currency issued in Taiwan. The proposed hybrid models consist of artificial neural network (ANN and multiple regression (MR components. The MR component of the hybrid models is established for a selection of fewer explanatory variables, wherein the selected variables are of higher importance. The ANN component is then designed to generate forecasts based on those important explanatory variables. Subsequently, the model is used to analyze a real dataset of Taiwan's currency from 1996 to 2011 and twenty associated explanatory variables. The prediction results reveal that the proposed hybrid scheme exhibits superior forecasting performance for predicting the volume of currency issued in Taiwan.

  18. A principal component approach for predicting the stem volume in Eucalyptus plantations in Brazil using airborne LiDAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlos Alberto Silva; Carine Klauberg; Andrew T. Hudak; Lee A. Vierling; Veraldo Liesenberg; Samuel P. C. e Carvalho; Luiz C. E. Rodriguez

    2016-01-01

    Improving management practices in industrial forest plantations may increase production efficiencies, thereby reducing pressures on native tropical forests for meeting global pulp needs. This study aims to predict stem volume (V) in plantations of fast-growing Eucalyptus hybrid clones located in southeast Brazil using field plot and airborne Light Detection...

  19. Numerical Weather Prediction in China in the New Century——Progress,Problems and Prospects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes the recent progress of numerical weather prediction(NWP)research since the last review Was published.The new generation NWP system named GRAPES (the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System),which consists of variational or sequential data assimilation and nonhydrostatic prediction model with options of configuration for either global or regional domains,is briefly introduced,with stress on their scientific design and preliminary results during pre-operational implementation.In addition to the development of GRAPES.the achievements in new methodologies of data assimilation,new improvements of model physics such as parameterization of clouds and planetary boundary layer,mesoscale ensemble prediction system and numerical prediction of air quality are presented.The scientific issues which should be emphasized for the future are discussed finally.

  20. Risk alleles of USF1 gene predict cardiovascular disease of women in two prospective studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Upstream transcription factor 1 (USF1 is a ubiquitously expressed transcription factor controlling several critical genes in lipid and glucose metabolism. Of some 40 genes regulated by USF1, several are involved in the molecular pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease (CVD. Although the USF1 gene has been shown to have a critical role in the etiology of familial combined hyperlipidemia, which predisposes to early CVD, the gene's potential role as a risk factor for CVD events at the population level has not been established. Here we report the results from a prospective genetic-epidemiological study of the association between the USF1 variants, CVD, and mortality in two large Finnish cohorts. Haplotype-tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms exposing all common allelic variants of USF1 were genotyped in a prospective case-cohort design with two distinct cohorts followed up during 1992-2001 and 1997-2003. The total number of follow-up years was 112,435 in 14,140 individuals, of which 2,225 were selected for genotyping based on the case-cohort study strategy. After adjustment for conventional risk factors, we observed an association of USF1 with CVD and mortality among females. In combined analysis of the two cohorts, female carriers of a USF1 risk haplotype had a 2-fold risk of a CVD event (hazard ratio [HR] 2.02; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-3.53; p = 0.01 and an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 2.52; 95% CI 1.46-4.35; p = 0.0009. A putative protective haplotype of USF1 was also identified. Our study shows how a gene identified in exceptional families proves to be important also at the population level, implying that allelic variants of USF1 significantly influence the prospective risk of CVD and even all-cause mortality in females.

  1. Novel and conventional serum biomarkers predicting acute kidney injury in adult cardiac surgery--a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase-Fielitz, Anja; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Devarajan, Prasad; Story, David; Matalanis, George; Dragun, Duska; Haase, Michael

    2009-02-01

    To compare the value of novel with conventional serum biomarkers in the prediction of acute kidney injury (AKI) in adult cardiac surgical patients according to preoperative renal function. Single-center, prospective observational study. Tertiary hospital. One hundred adult cardiac surgical patients. We measured concentrations of plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), and serum cystatin C, and creatinine and urea at baseline, on arrival in the intensive care unit (ICU) and at 24 hours postoperatively. We assessed such biomarkers in relation to the development of AKI (>50% increase in creatinine from baseline) and to a composite end point (need for renal replacement therapy and in-hospital mortality). We defined an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.60-0.69 as poor, 0.70-0.79 as fair, 0.80-0.89 as good, and 0.90-1.00 as excellent in terms of predictive value. On arrival in ICU, plasma NGAL and serum cystatin C were of good predictive value, but creatinine and urea were of poor predictive value. After exclusion of patients with preoperative renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate fair value in such patients. At 24 hours postoperatively, all renal biomarkers were of good predictive value. On arrival in ICU, novel biomarkers were superior to conventional biomarkers (p value in the prediction of the composite end point. Early postoperative measurement of plasma NGAL was of good value in identifying patients who developed AKI after adult cardiac surgery. Plasma NGAL and serum cystatin C were superior to conventional biomarkers in the prediction of AKI and were also of prognostic value in this setting.

  2. Anatomic features of the neck as predictive markers of difficult direct laryngoscopy in men and women: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaskou, Chara; Chara, Liaskou; Vouzounerakis, Eleftherios; Eleftherios, Vouzounerakis; Moirasgenti, Maria; Maria, Moirasgenti; Trikoupi, Anastasia; Anastasia, Trikoupi; Staikou, Chryssoula; Chryssoula, Staikou

    2014-03-01

    Difficult airway assessment is based on various anatomic parameters of upper airway, much of it being concentrated on oral cavity and the pharyngeal structures. The diagnostic value of tests based on neck anatomy in predicting difficult laryngoscopy was assessed in this prospective, open cohort study. We studied 341 adult patients scheduled to receive general anaesthesia. Thyromental distance (TMD), sternomental distance (STMD), ratio of height to thyromental distance (RHTMD) and neck circumference (NC) were measured pre-operatively. The laryngoscopic view was classified according to the Cormack-Lehane Grade (1-4). Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Cormack-Lehane Grade 3 or 4. The optimal cut-off points for each variable were identified by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each test. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression, including all variables, was used to create a predictive model. Comparisons between genders were also performed. Laryngoscopy was difficult in 12.6% of the patients. The cut-off values were: TMD ≤7 cm, STMD ≤15 cm, RHTMD >18.4 and NC >37.5 cm. The RHTMD had the highest sensitivity (88.4%) and NPV (95.2%), while TMD had the highest specificity (83.9%). The area under curve (AUC) for the TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC was 0.63, 0.64, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively. The predictive model exhibited a higher and statistically significant diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.68, P < 0.001). Gender-specific cut-off points improved the predictive accuracy of NC in women (AUC: 0.65). The TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC were found to be poor single predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, while a model including all four variables had a significant predictive accuracy. Among the studied tests, gender-specific cut-off points should be used for NC.

  3. Anatomic features of the neck as predictive markers of difficult direct laryngoscopy in men and women: A prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liaskou Chara

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Difficult airway assessment is based on various anatomic parameters of upper airway, much of it being concentrated on oral cavity and the pharyngeal structures. The diagnostic value of tests based on neck anatomy in predicting difficult laryngoscopy was assessed in this prospective, open cohort study. Methods: We studied 341 adult patients scheduled to receive general anaesthesia. Thyromental distance (TMD, sternomental distance (STMD, ratio of height to thyromental distance (RHTMD and neck circumference (NC were measured pre-operatively. The laryngoscopic view was classified according to the Cormack-Lehane Grade (1-4. Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Cormack-Lehane Grade 3 or 4. The optimal cut-off points for each variable were identified by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV were calculated for each test. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression, including all variables, was used to create a predictive model. Comparisons between genders were also performed. Results: Laryngoscopy was difficult in 12.6% of the patients. The cut-off values were: TMD ≤7 cm, STMD ≤15 cm, RHTMD >18.4 and NC >37.5 cm. The RHTMD had the highest sensitivity (88.4% and NPV (95.2%, while TMD had the highest specificity (83.9%. The area under curve (AUC for the TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC was 0.63, 0.64, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively. The predictive model exhibited a higher and statistically significant diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.68, P < 0.001. Gender-specific cut-off points improved the predictive accuracy of NC in women (AUC: 0.65. Conclusions: The TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC were found to be poor single predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, while a model including all four variables had a significant predictive accuracy. Among the studied tests, gender-specific cut-off points should be used for NC.

  4. Predictive accuracy of Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale assessment during pregnancy for the risk of developing postpartum depressive symptoms : a prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, J. L.; Beijers, C.; van Pampus, M. G.; Verbeek, T.; Stolk, R. P.; Milgrom, J.; Bockting, C. L. H.; Burger, H.

    2014-01-01

    ObjectiveTo investigate whether the 10-item Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) administered antenatally is accurate in predicting postpartum depressive symptoms, and whether a two-item EPDS has similar predictive accuracy. DesignProspective cohort study. SettingObstetric care in the Netherl

  5. Using Cloninger's Temperament Scales to Predict Substance-Related Behaviors in Adolescents: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Christie; Hopfer, Christian; Corley, Robin; Hewitt, John; Stallings, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Background and Objectives We tested one of Cloninger's temperament theories – that high novelty seeking (NS), along with low harm avoidance (HA), reward dependence (RD), and persistence (PE), predicts early-onset substance problems. Methods In a community-based sample of 777 adolescents examined at two time points (mean age 13 and 18, respectively), we examined whether Cloninger's four temperament dimensions at wave 1 predicted five substance-related outcomes at wave 2: age of initiation for cigarettes, alcohol, and illicit drugs, number of substance classes tried, and total number of DSM-IV substance use disorder (SUD) symptoms. Results Cloninger's predicted temperament pattern did significantly predict the number of SUD symptoms at wave 2. For initiation of cigarettes/illicit drugs and number of substance classes tried, HA/NS/PE fit the pattern, but RD did not. For onset of alcohol, only NS and PE fit Cloninger's prediction. Results for NS and PE were most consistent. Conclusions and Scientific Significance Overall, this study provides evidence that Cloninger's theory may hold true for predicting problem use more than for predicting “use” or experimentation. In addition, youth with high novelty seeking and low persistence may find substances especially reinforcing, and identifying these youth and intervening before initiation has occurred may reduce the risk of future substance-related problems. PMID:23617866

  6. Prospective Prediction of Juvenile Homicide/Attempted Homicide among Early-Onset Juvenile Offenders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baglivio, Michael T.; Wolff, Kevin T.

    2017-01-01

    While homicide perpetrated by juveniles is a relatively rare occurrence, between 2010 and 2014, approximately 7%–8% of all murders involved a juvenile offender. Unfortunately, few studies have prospectively examined the predictors of homicide offending, with none examining first-time murder among a sample of adjudicated male and female youth. The current study employed data on 5908 juvenile offenders (70% male, 45% Black) first arrested at the age of 12 or younger to prospectively examine predictors of an arrest for homicide/attempted homicide by the age of 18. Among these early-onset offenders, males, Black youth, those living in households with family members with a history of mental illness, those engaging in self-mutilation, and those with elevated levels of anger/aggression (all measured by age 13) were more likely to be arrested for homicide/attempted homicide by age 18. These findings add to the scant scientific literature on the predictors of homicide, and illustrate potential avenues for intervention. PMID:28212340

  7. Prospective Prediction of Juvenile Homicide/Attempted Homicide among Early-Onset Juvenile Offenders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael T. Baglivio

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available While homicide perpetrated by juveniles is a relatively rare occurrence, between 2010 and 2014, approximately 7%–8% of all murders involved a juvenile offender. Unfortunately, few studies have prospectively examined the predictors of homicide offending, with none examining first-time murder among a sample of adjudicated male and female youth. The current study employed data on 5908 juvenile offenders (70% male, 45% Black first arrested at the age of 12 or younger to prospectively examine predictors of an arrest for homicide/attempted homicide by the age of 18. Among these early-onset offenders, males, Black youth, those living in households with family members with a history of mental illness, those engaging in self-mutilation, and those with elevated levels of anger/aggression (all measured by age 13 were more likely to be arrested for homicide/attempted homicide by age 18. These findings add to the scant scientific literature on the predictors of homicide, and illustrate potential avenues for intervention.

  8. Negative cognitive styles synergistically predict suicidal ideation in bipolar spectrum disorders: a 3-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stange, Jonathan P; Hamilton, Jessica L; Burke, Taylor A; Kleiman, Evan M; O'Garro-Moore, Jared K; Seligman, Nicole D; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2015-03-30

    Rates of suicidal ideation and behavior are extremely high in bipolar spectrum disorders (BSDs). However, relatively little work has evaluated potentially synergistic relationships between cognitive and emotion-regulatory processes proposed by theoretical models of suicidality in BSDs. The present study evaluated whether negative cognitive style and subtypes of rumination would exacerbate the impact of self-criticism on suicidal ideation in a prospective study of individuals with BSDs. Seventy-two young adults with BSDs (bipolar II, bipolar NOS, or cyclothymia) completed diagnostic interviews and trait measures of self-criticism, negative cognitive style, and brooding and reflective rumination at a baseline assessment. The occurrence of suicidal ideation was assessed as part of diagnostic interviews completed every 4 months for an average of 3 years of follow-up. Negative cognitive style and reflective rumination strengthened the association between self-criticism and the prospective occurrence of suicidal ideation across follow-up. Individuals with high levels of self-criticism in conjunction with negative cognitive style or reflective rumination were most likely to experience the onset of suicidal ideation. Self-criticism may work synergistically with negative cognitive style and rumination to confer risk for suicidal ideation in bipolar spectrum disorders. These results support theoretical models of suicidality in BSDs and indicate that evaluating and understanding negative cognitive styles may help to identify individuals who are at risk of suicide.

  9. Resonant frequency does not predict high-frequency chest compression settings that maximize airflow or volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luthy, Sarah K; Marinkovic, Aleksandar; Weiner, Daniel J

    2011-06-01

    High-frequency chest compression (HFCC) is a therapy for cystic fibrosis (CF). We hypothesized that the resonant frequency (f(res)), as measured by impulse oscillometry, could be used to determine what HFCC vest settings produce maximal airflow or volume in pediatric CF patients. In 45 subjects, we studied: f(res), HFCC vest frequencies that subjects used (f(used)), and the HFCC vest frequencies that generated the greatest volume (f(vol)) and airflow (f(flow)) changes as measured by pneumotachometer. Median f(used) for 32 subjects was 14 Hz (range, 6-30). The rank order of the three most common f(used) was 15 Hz (28%) and 12 Hz (21%); three frequencies tied for third: 10, 11, and 14 Hz (5% each). Median f(res) for 43 subjects was 20.30 Hz (range, 7.85-33.65). Nineteen subjects underwent vest-tuning to determine f(vol) and f(flow). Median f(vol) was 8 Hz (range, 6-30). The rank order of the three most common f(vol) was: 8 Hz (42%), 6 Hz (32%), and 10 Hz (21%). Median f(flow) was 26 Hz (range, 8-30). The rank order of the three most common f(flow) was: 30 Hz (26%) and 28 Hz (21%); three frequencies tied for third: 8, 14, and 18 Hz (11% each). There was no correlation between f(used) and f(flow) (r(2)  = -0.12) or f(vol) (r(2) = 0.031). There was no correlation between f(res) and f(flow) (r(2)  = 0.19) or f(vol) (r(2) = 0.023). Multivariable analysis showed no independent variables were predictive of f(flow) or f(vol). Vest-tuning may be required to optimize clinical utility of HFCC. Multiple HFCC frequencies may need to be used to incorporate f(flow) and f(vol).

  10. Prediction method for the volume of the excess post-exercise oxygen consumption (EPOC) following supramaximal exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanova, D

    2000-01-01

    Short (up to 60 s) supramaximal (about 400 W on the average) exercise is accompanied by specific biochemical processes in the working muscles and by a general increase in energy metabolism. Outwardly, this is manifested by an excess post-exercise oxygen consumption (EPOC). Since its actual measurement is time consuming and associated sometimes with difficulties, we propose a fixed 3-min test for EPOC prediction. The measured volumes of oxygen consumption are related to the corresponding periods in a coordinate system as reciprocal values. The linear equation, whose parameters were calculated by the method of least squares or were determined graphically, provided for prediction of the EPOC volume with satisfactory accuracy and precision. The obtained increase of the predicted values over the actually measured values was below 5%, and the correlation coefficient r = 0.98. Other parameters of the recovery process were also calculated, such as tau (half-time) of EPOC and the rate constant k.

  11. Cognition and the prediction of functioning in patients with a first treated episode of psychosis: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Ross M G; Carr, Jason; Manchanda, Rahul

    2015-03-01

    Past research on the role of cognitive performance in predicting later psychosocial functioning for individuals with first treated episode of a psychotic disorder has yielded inconsistent results. Several factors have been suggested as determining the strength of any such relationship including the type of functioning measured, time of the cognitive assessment, covariates included and the use of global versus specific measures of cognitive functioning. In the current study, we examined the importance of these factors in a five year prospective study of individuals with first episode psychotic disorders. Just over 80% of the sample had a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Cognitive assessments were carried out after initiation of treatment on 113 patients, and at one year for 79 patients. There was evidence that cognition predicted occupational functioning and use of a disability pension, but not a summary index of functioning or use of supervised housing, at follow-up. Overall I.Q. was a more consistent predictor than measures of specific cognitive functions, and there was evidence that cognition assessed after presentation for treatment, particularly after a year of treatment, was more predictive of later functioning than premorbid I.Q. Cognitive functioning, however, did not add to the prediction of outcomes beyond the level possible using past educational achievement or academic premorbid adjustment.

  12. Stress sensitivity interacts with depression history to predict depressive symptoms among youth: prospective changes following first depression onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Technow, Jessica R; Hazel, Nicholas A; Abela, John R Z; Hankin, Benjamin L

    2015-04-01

    Predictors of depressive symptoms may differ before and after the first onset of major depression due to stress sensitization. Dependent stressors, or those to which characteristics of individuals contribute, have been shown to predict depressive symptoms in youth. The current study sought to clarify how stressors' roles may differ before and after the first depressive episode. Adolescents (N = 382, aged 11 to 15 at baseline) were assessed at baseline and every 3 months over the course of 2 years with measures of stressors and depressive symptoms. Semi-structured interviews were conducted every 6 months to assess for clinically significant depressive episodes. Hierarchical linear modeling showed a significant interaction between history of depression and idiographic fluctuations in dependent stressors to predict prospective elevations of symptoms, such that dependent stressors were more predictive of depressive symptoms after onset of disorder. Independent stressors predicted symptoms, but the strength of the association did not vary by depression history. These results suggest a synthesis of dependent stress and stress sensitization processes that might maintain inter-episode depressive symptoms among youth with a history of clinical depression.

  13. The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oostrom, Iris; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J; Bröcker-Vriends, Annette H J T; van Asperen, Christi J; Sijmons, Rolf H; Seynaeve, Caroline; Van Gool, Arthur R; Klijn, Jan G M; Tibben, Aad

    2007-12-01

    This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related gene, based on the common sense model of self-regulation. Coping with hereditary cancer (UCL), illness representations (IPQ-R) and risk perception were assessed in 235 unaffected applicants for genetic testing before test result disclosure. Hereditary cancer distress (IES) and cancer worry (CWS) were assessed before, 2 weeks after and 6 months after result disclosure. Timeline (r = 0.30), consequences (r = 0.25), illness coherence (r = 0.21) and risk perception (r = 0.20) were significantly correlated to passive coping. Passive coping predicted hereditary cancer distress and cancer worry from pre-test (beta = 0.46 and 0.42, respectively) up to 6 months after result disclosure (beta = 0.32 and 0.19, respectively). Illness coherence predicted hereditary cancer distress up to 6 months after result disclosure (beta = 0.24), too. The self-regulatory model may be useful to predict the cognitive and emotional reactions to genetic cancer susceptibility testing. Identifying unhelpful representations and cognitive restructuring may be appropriate interventions to help distressed individuals undergoing genetic susceptibility testing for a BRCA1/2 or a HNPCC-related mutation.

  14. Stroke volume variation compared with pulse pressure variation and cardiac index changes for prediction of fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randa Aly Soliman

    2015-04-01

    Conclusions: Baseline stroke volume variation ⩾8.15% predicted fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients with acute circulatory failure. The study also confirmed the ability of pulse pressure variation to predict fluid responsiveness.

  15. Pressure-volume-temperature and excess molar volume prediction of amorphous and crystallizable polymer blends by equation of state

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fakhri Yousefi; Hajir Karimi; Maryam Gomar

    2015-01-01

    In this work the statistical mechanical equation of state was developed for volumetric properties of crystal ine and amorphous polymer blends. The Ihm–Song–Mason equations of state (ISMEOS) based on temperature and density at melting point (Tm andρm) as scaling constants were developed for crystalline polymers such as poly(propylene glycol)+poly(ethylene glycol)-200 (PPG+PEG-200), poly(ethylene glycol) methyl ether-300 (PEGME-350)+PEG-200 and PEGME-350+PEG-600. Furthermore, for amorphous polymer blends con-taining poly(2,6-dimethyl-1,4-phenylene oxide) (PPO)+polystyrene (PS) and PS+poly(vinylmethylether) (PVME), the density and surface tension at glass transition (ρg andγg) were used for estimation of second Virial coefficient. The calculation of second Virial coefficients (B2), effective van der Waals co-volume (b) and correction factor (α) was required for judgment about applicability of this model. The obtained results by ISMEOS for crys-talline and amorphous polymer blends were in good agreement with the experimental data with absolute aver-age deviations of 0.84%and 1.04%, respectively.

  16. Combined Low-Volume Polyethylene Glycol Solution Plus Stimulant Laxatives versus Standard-Volume Polyethylene Glycol Solution: A Prospective, Randomized Study of Colon Cleansing before Colonoscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence C Hookey

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The effectiveness of polyethylene glycol solutions (PEG for colon cleansing is often limited by the inability of patients to drink adequate portions of the 4 L solution. The aim of the present study was to determine whether a reduced volume of PEG combined with stimulant laxatives would be better tolerated and as or more effective than the standard dose.

  17. Prospective prediction of resistance to neoadjuvant therapy in patients with locoregional esophageal adenocarcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosen DG

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Daniel G Rosen,1 Weiwei Shan,2 Natalie Lassen,2 Clare Johnson,2 Kristen Oelschlager,2 Yaeli Bierman-Harrar,1 Kenneth A Kesler,3 Derek Maetzold,2 Sunil Badve,3 Robert W Cook,2 Romil Saxena3 1Baylor College of Medicine, Houston TX, USA; 2Castle Biosciences, Incorporated, Friendswood, TX, USA; 3Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN, USA Background: To clinically validate a multianalyte algorithmic immunohistochemistry (IHC assay that has been previously shown to accurately identify patients with locoregional esophageal adenocarcinoma (EC who will exhibit extreme resistance to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Methods: Archived biopsy specimens of EC were subject to IHC examination of compartmentalized immunoreactivity of nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB, Sonic Hedgehog (SHH, and GLI family zinc finger 1 (Gli-1, and a labeling index score was assigned to each biomarker. Test prediction was generated by logistic regression predictive modeling, using the labeling index scores for all three analytes from each sample, referring to a validated training set of 167 EC patients. Accuracy of the test was determined by comparing the predicted outcomes with pathologically determined College of American Pathologists tumor response grade. Analytical validity of the test was measured by comparing validation set prediction results obtained in two independent Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendment-certified laboratories, and by measuring concordance between two trained labeling index readers. Results: Specimens from 64 patients that met specific criteria were collected. No technical failure was encountered during the IHC labeling procedures. The logistic regression algorithm generated an area under the curve of 0.96 and 0.85 for the 64 sample cohort in two independent clinical laboratories, respectively, comparing predictive results with the established training set. Positive predictive values of 88% and 82% were also achieved in each laboratory, respectively. A

  18. Predicting reading and spelling disorders: a 4-year prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia eBigozzi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this 4-year prospective cohort study, children with a reading and spelling disorder, children with a spelling impairment, and children without a reading and/or spelling disorder (control group in a transparent orthography were identified in third grade, and their emergent literacy performances in kindergarten compared retrospectively. 642 Italian children participated. This cohort was followed from the last year of kindergarten to third grade. In kindergarten, the children were assessed in phonological awareness, conceptual knowledge of writing systems and textual competence. In third grade, 18 children with a reading and spelling impairment and 13 children with a spelling impairment were identified. Overall, conceptual knowledge of the writing system was the only statistically significant predictor of the clinical samples. No differences were found between the two clinical samples.

  19. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: We sought to investigate whether preadmission quality of life could act as a predictor of mortality among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a prospective observational study of all patients above the age of 18 years admitted to the ICU...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....... with a length of stay longer than 24 hours. Short form 36 (SF-36) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were used. Mortality was assessed during ICU admission, 30, and 90 days hereafter. RESULTS: We included 318 patients. No patients were lost to follow-up. Using the physical...

  20. Predictive factors of difficulty in lower third molar extraction: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvira-González, J; Figueiredo, R; Valmaseda-Castellón, E; Quesada-Gómez, C; Gay-Escoda, C

    2017-01-01

    Several publications have measured the difficulty of third molar removal, trying to establish the main risk factors, however several important preoperative and intraoperative variables are overlooked. A prospective cohort study comprising a total of 130 consecutive lower third molar extractions was performed. The outcome variables used to measure the difficulty of the extraction were operation time and a 100mm visual analogue scale filled by the surgeon at the end of the surgical procedure. The predictors were divided into 4 different groups (demographic, anatomic, radiographic and operative variables). A descriptive, bivariate and multivariate analysis of the data was performed. Patients' weight, the presence of bulbous roots, the need to perform crown and root sectioning of the lower third molar and Pell and Gregory 123 classification significantly influenced both outcome variables (pthird molars.

  1. Predicting Reading and Spelling Disorders: A 4-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Caudek, Corrado; Pinto, Giuliana

    2016-01-01

    In this 4-year prospective cohort study, children with a reading and spelling disorder, children with a spelling impairment, and children without a reading and/or spelling disorder (control group) in a transparent orthography were identified in third grade, and their emergent literacy performances in kindergarten compared retrospectively. Six hundred and forty-two Italian children participated. This cohort was followed from the last year of kindergarten to third grade. In kindergarten, the children were assessed in phonological awareness, conceptual knowledge of writing systems and textual competence. In third grade, 18 children with a reading and spelling impairment and 13 children with a spelling impairment were identified. Overall, conceptual knowledge of the writing system was the only statistically significant predictor of the clinical samples. No differences were found between the two clinical samples.

  2. Comparison of Puff Volume With Cigarettes per Day in Predicting Nicotine Uptake Among Daily Smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krebs, Nicolle M; Chen, Allshine; Zhu, Junjia; Sun, Dongxiao; Liao, Jason; Stennett, Andrea L; Muscat, Joshua E

    2016-07-01

    The role of inhalation behaviors as predictors of nicotine uptake was examined in the Pennsylvania Adult Smoking Study (2012-2014), a study of 332 adults whose cigarette smoking was measured in a naturalistic environment (e.g., at home) with portable handheld topography devices. Piecewise regression analyses showed that levels of salivary cotinine, trans-3'-hydroxycotinine, and total salivary nicotine metabolites (cotinine + trans-3'-hydroxycotinine) increased linearly up to a level of about 1 pack per day (20 cigarettes per day (CPD)) (P < 0.01). Total daily puff volume (TDPV; in mL) (P < 0.05) and total daily number of puffs (P < 0.05), but not other topographical measures, increased linearly with CPD up to a level of about 1 pack per day. The mean level of cotinine per cigarette did not change above 20 CPD and was 36% lower in heavy smokers (≥20 CPD) than in lighter smokers (<20 CPD) (15.6 ng/mL vs. 24.5 ng/mL, respectively; P < 0.01). Mediation models showed that TDPV accounted for 43%-63% of the association between CPD and nicotine metabolites for smokers of <20 CPD. TDPV was the best predictor of nicotine metabolite levels in light-to-moderate smokers (1-19 CPD). In contrast, neither CPD, total daily number of puffs, nor TDPV predicted nicotine metabolite levels above 20 CPD (up to 40 CPD). Finally, although light smokers are traditionally considered less dependent on nicotine, these findings suggest that they are exposed to more nicotine per cigarette than are heavy smokers due to more frequent, intensive puffing.

  3. Lateral Ventricle Volume Asymmetry Predicts Midline Shift in Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmalfuss, Ilona; Heaton, Shelley C.; Gabrielli, Andrea; Hannay, H. Julia; Papa, Linda; Brophy, Gretchen M.; Wang, Kevin K.W.; Büki, András; Schwarcz, Attila; Hayes, Ronald L.; Robertson, Claudia S.; Robicsek, Steven A.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Midline shift following severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI) detected on computed tomography (CT) scans is an established predictor of poor outcome. We hypothesized that lateral ventricular volume (LVV) asymmetry is an earlier sign of developing asymmetric intracranial pathology than midline shift. This retrospective analysis was performed on data from 84 adults with blunt sTBI requiring a ventriculostomy who presented to a Level I trauma center. Seventy-six patients underwent serial CTs within 3 h and an average of three scans within the first 10 d of sTBI. Left and right LVVs were quantified by computer-assisted manual volumetric measurements. LVV ratios (LVR) were determined on the admission CT to evaluate ventricular asymmetry. The relationship between the admission LVR value and subsequent midline shift development was tested using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and odds ratio (OR) and relative risk tests. Sixty patients had no >5 mm midline shift on the initial admission scan. Of these, 15 patients developed it subsequently (16 patients already had >5 mm midline shift on admission scans). For >5 mm midline shift development, admission LVR of >1.67 was shown to have a sensitivity of 73.3% and a specificity of 73.3% (area under the curve=0.782; p1.67 as exposure yielded an OR of 7.56 (p<0.01), and a risk ratio of 4.42 (p<0.01) for midline shift development as unfavorable outcome. We propose that LVR captures LVV asymmetry and is not only related to, but also predicts the development of midline shift already at admission CT examination. Lateral ventricles may have a higher “compliance” than midline structures to developing asymmetric brain pathology. LVR analysis is simple, rapidly accomplished and may allow earlier interventions to attenuate midline shift and potentially improve ultimate outcomes. PMID:25752227

  4. Lateral Ventricle Volume Asymmetry Predicts Midline Shift in Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tóth, Arnold; Schmalfuss, Ilona; Heaton, Shelley C; Gabrielli, Andrea; Hannay, H Julia; Papa, Linda; Brophy, Gretchen M; Wang, Kevin K W; Büki, András; Schwarcz, Attila; Hayes, Ronald L; Robertson, Claudia S; Robicsek, Steven A

    2015-09-01

    Midline shift following severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI) detected on computed tomography (CT) scans is an established predictor of poor outcome. We hypothesized that lateral ventricular volume (LVV) asymmetry is an earlier sign of developing asymmetric intracranial pathology than midline shift. This retrospective analysis was performed on data from 84 adults with blunt sTBI requiring a ventriculostomy who presented to a Level I trauma center. Seventy-six patients underwent serial CTs within 3 h and an average of three scans within the first 10 d of sTBI. Left and right LVVs were quantified by computer-assisted manual volumetric measurements. LVV ratios (LVR) were determined on the admission CT to evaluate ventricular asymmetry. The relationship between the admission LVR value and subsequent midline shift development was tested using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and odds ratio (OR) and relative risk tests. Sixty patients had no >5 mm midline shift on the initial admission scan. Of these, 15 patients developed it subsequently (16 patients already had >5 mm midline shift on admission scans). For >5 mm midline shift development, admission LVR of >1.67 was shown to have a sensitivity of 73.3% and a specificity of 73.3% (area under the curve=0.782; p1.67 as exposure yielded an OR of 7.56 (pasymmetry and is not only related to, but also predicts the development of midline shift already at admission CT examination. Lateral ventricles may have a higher "compliance" than midline structures to developing asymmetric brain pathology. LVR analysis is simple, rapidly accomplished and may allow earlier interventions to attenuate midline shift and potentially improve ultimate outcomes.

  5. Aircraft Trajectories Computation-Prediction-Control (La Trajectoire de l’Avion Calcul-Prediction-Controle). Volume 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-05-01

    Operation 32E A-26 by Andre Benoit, Sip Swierstra and Ren6 de Wispelaere LE CONTROLEUR DE LA CIRCULATION AERIENNE ET L’AUTOMATISATION: 32F A-27 Conflit ...contrite 6tendiue ainsi constitu6e, l’ensemble de l’espace a rien concern6 relevant d’un centre de gestion d~terminu. A-12 PART IV-B - PROSPECT : A FUTURE...6conomique optimales d’une part, et Ia n6cessitd de faire face bk un trafic croissant d’autre part, imposent aux responsables de Ia Gestion du Trafic A~rien

  6. Very low cerebral blood volume predicts parenchymal hematoma in acute ischemic stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermitte, Laure; Cho, Tae-Hee; Ozenne, Brice;

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Parenchymal hematoma (PH) may worsen the outcome of patients with stroke. The aim of our study was to confirm the relationship between the volume of very low cerebral blood volume (CBV) and PH using a European multicenter database (I-KNOW). A secondary objective was to exp...

  7. Motivational Selectivity Prospectively Predicts Couples' Realization of Their Goal to Have a Child

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauers, Antje; Böhnke, Anja; Riediger, Michaela

    2013-01-01

    Developmental theories have emphasized that motivational selectivity--focusing on a few goals instead of "wanting it all"--regulates development in individuals, dyads, or groups. We provide first evidence that this motivational strategy predicts an objective, goal-related developmental outcome years later. We followed up on initially…

  8. Utility of Hippocrates’ prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Patrick R

    2014-01-01

    Objective To determine if one of Hippocrates’ aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Design Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Setting Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. Participants 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Main outcome measure Time to death. Methods We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. Results The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. Conclusion An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. PMID:25512328

  9. Utility of Hippocrates' prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Montgomery, Patrick R

    2014-12-15

    To determine if one of Hippocrates' aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Time to death. We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. © St John et al 2014.

  10. Cognitive Models of Risky Choice: Parameter Stability and Predictive Accuracy of Prospect Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glockner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-01-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are…

  11. Does marital conflict predict infants' physiological regulation? A short-term prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Christin L; Dyer, W Justin

    2017-06-01

    Prior research has linked marital conflict to children's internalizing/externalizing disorders, insecure attachment, and poor emotional regulation (e.g., Cummings & Davies, 2010; Cummings, Iannotti, & Zahn-Waxler, 1985). Although investigators have examined the impact of marital discord on older children (e.g., Crockenberg & Langrock, 2001), few have explored direct links in infancy (e.g., Cowan & Cowan, 1999). This study extends earlier work by examining linkages between marital functioning (conflict and harmony) and infants' cardiac vagal tone and developmental status across 2 time points using a cross-lag approach. Differential findings were found for boys and girls, with concurrent linkages between marital love and vagal tone at 6 months for boys and girls but only for boys at 12 months. In addition, marital conflict at 6 months predicted lower cardiac vagal tone in girls at 12 months but not boys. Finally, infants' developmental status at 6 months was found to predict marital conflict at 12 months. Higher scores on the Psychomotor Development Index (PDI) predicted greater marital conflict whereas higher scores on the Mental Development Index (MDI) predicted lower conflict. These findings are discussed in the context of the emotional security hypothesis and the spillover framework as well as differential susceptibilities to early developmental contexts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Does delivery volume of family physicians predict maternal and newborn outcome?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, M.C. [Children' s and Women' s Health Centre, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Univ. of British Columbia, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Spence, A. [Children' s and Women' s Health Centre, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Kaczorowski, J. [McMaster Univ., Depts. of Family Medicine and of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada); Kelly, A. [Children' s and Women' s Health Centre, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Univ. of British Columbia, Dept. of Health Care and Epidemiology, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Grzybowski, S. [Univ. of British Columbia, Dept. of Family Practice, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada)

    2002-05-01

    The number of births attended by individual family physicians who practice intrapartum care varies. We wanted to determine if the practice-volume relations that have been shown in other fields of medical practice also exist in maternity care practice by family doctors. For the period April 1997 to August 1998, we analyzed all singleton births at a major maternity teaching hospital for which the family physician was the responsible physician. Physicians were grouped into 3 categories on the basis of the number of births they attended each year: fewer than 12, 12 to 24, and 25 or more. Physicians with a low volume of deliveries (72 physicians, 549 births), those with a medium volume of deliveries (34 physicians, 871 births) and those with a high volume of deliveries (46 physicians, 3024 births) were compared in terms of maternal and newborn outcomes. The main outcome measures were maternal morbidity, 5-minute Apgar score and admission of the baby to the neonatal intensive care unit or special care unit. Secondary outcomes were obstetric procedures and consultation patterns. There was no difference among the 3 volume cohorts in terms of rates of maternal complications of delivery, 5-minute Apgar scores of less than 7 or admissions to the neonatal intensive care unit or the special care unit, either before or after adjustment for parity, pregnancy-induced hypertension, diabetes, ethnicity, lone parent status, maternal age, gestational age, newborn birth weight and newborn head circumference at birth. High-and medium-volume family physicians consulted with obstetricians less often than low-volume family physicians (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.586 [95% confidence interval, CI, 0.479-0.718] and 0.739 [95% Cl 0.583-0.935] respectively). High-and medium-volume family physicians transferred the delivery to an obstetrician less often than low-volume family physicians (adjusted OR 0.668 [95% CI 0.542-0.823] and 0.776 [95% Cl 0.607-0.992] respectively). Inductions were performed

  13. Prediction of free-volume-type correlations in glassy chalcogenides from positron annihilation lifetime measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shpotyuk, O., E-mail: shpotyuk@novas.lviv.ua [Institute of Materials of SRC “Carat”, 212 Stryjska Str., Lviv 79031 (Ukraine); Institute of Physics of Jan Dlugosz University, 13/15 al. Armii Krajowej, Czestcochowa 42200 (Poland); Ingram, A. [Opole University of Technology, 75 Ozimska Str., Opole 45370 (Poland); Shpotyuk, M. [Institute of Materials of SRC “Carat”, 212 Stryjska Str., Lviv 79031 (Ukraine); Lviv Polytechnic National University, 12 Bandery Str., Lviv 79013 (Ukraine); Filipecki, J. [Institute of Physics of Jan Dlugosz University, 13/15 al. Armii Krajowej, Czestcochowa 42200 (Poland)

    2014-11-01

    Highlights: • Decisive role of specific chemical environment in free-volume correlations in glass. • Realistic free volumes in As–S/Se glass are defined by newly modified τ{sub 2}-R formula. • Overestimated void sizes in chalcogenide glass as compared with molecular polymers. - Abstract: A newly modified correlation equation between defect-related positron lifetime determined within two-state trapping model and radius of corresponding free-volume-type defects was proposed to describe compositional variations in atomic-deficient structure of covalent-bonded chalcogenides like binary As–S/Se glasses. Specific chemical environment of free-volume voids around neighboring network-forming polyhedrons was shown to play a decisive role in this correlation, leading to systematically enhanced volumes in comparison with typical molecular substrates, such as polymers.

  14. Self-Predictions of Prospective Memory in HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorders: Evidence of a Metamemory Deficit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casaletto, Kaitlin Blackstone; Doyle, Katie L.; Weber, Erica; Woods, Steven Paul; Heaton, Robert K.; Grant, Igor; Atkinson, J. Hampton; Ellis, Ronald J.; Letendre, Scott; Marcotte, Thomas D.; Marquie-Beck, Jennifer; Sherman, Melanie; Ellis, Ronald J.; Letendre, Scott; McCutchan, J. Allen; Best, Brookie; Schrier, Rachel; Rosario, Debra; Heaton, Robert K.; Atkinson, J. Hampton; Woods, Steven Paul; D, Psy; Marcotte, Thomas D.; Cherner, Mariana; Moore, David J.; Dawson, Matthew; Fennema-Notestine, Christine; Buchsbaum, Monte S.; Hesselink, John; Archibald, Sarah L.; Brown, Gregory; Buxton, Richard; Dale, Anders; Liu, Thomas; Masliah, Eliezer; Achim, Cristian; Smith, David M.; Richman, Douglas; McCutchan, J. Allen; Cherner, Mariana; Achim, Cristian; Lipton, Stuart; Atkinson, J. Hampton; Marquie-Beck, Jennifer; Gamst, Anthony C.; Cushman, Clint; Abramson, Ian; Vaida, Florin; Deutsch, Reena; Umlauf, Anya

    2014-01-01

    HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) are associated with deficits in prospective memory (PM; “remembering to remember”), conferring risk of daily functioning declines. However, self-perceptions of PM functioning are not reliably associated with PM performance in HIV, suggesting a possible deficit in awareness of PM abilities (meta-PM). Our study examined meta-PM in HAND and its correlates using self-predictions of laboratory-based PM performance. Performance-based PM abilities, self-reported prediction of PM performance, and PM complaints in everyday life were assessed in 49 individuals with HAND, 93 HIV+ without HAND (HIV+ noHAND), and 121 seronegative adults (HIV−). After controlling for group-level differences, HAND was associated with a greater number of PM symptoms in everyday life and worse PM performance when compared with both HIV+ noHAND and HIV− samples. Although HAND individuals reported somewhat lower predictions regarding their laboratory PM performance relative to the other study groups, they nevertheless exhibited significantly greater inaccurate overconfidence in time-based PM abilities. Within the HAND group, overconfidence in time-based meta-PM was associated with executive dysfunction and antiretroviral (ARV) nonadherence. HAND individuals evidenced a moderate deficit in awareness of PM functioning characterized by overconfidence in time-based PM abilities. Overconfidence in PM may result in absence of compensatory strategy use, and lead to increased errors in daily functioning (e.g., ARV nonadherence). PMID:25404005

  15. Poor self-control and harsh punishment in childhood prospectively predict borderline personality symptoms in adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallquist, Michael N; Hipwell, Alison E; Stepp, Stephanie D

    2015-08-01

    Developmental theories of borderline personality disorder (BPD) propose that harsh, invalidating parenting of a child with poor self-control and heightened negative emotionality often leads to a coercive cycle of parent-child transactions that increase risk for BPD symptoms such as emotion dysregulation. Although parenting practices and child temperament have previously been linked with BPD, less is known about the prospective influences of caregiver and child characteristics. Using annual longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Girls Study (n = 2,450), our study examined how reciprocal influences among harsh parenting, self-control, and negative emotionality between ages 5 and 14 predicted the development of BPD symptoms in adolescent girls ages 14 to 17. Consistent with developmental theories, we found that harsh punishment, poor self-control, and negative emotionality predicted BPD symptom severity at age 14. Only worsening self-control between ages 12 and 14, however, predicted growth in BPD symptoms from 14 to 17. Furthermore, the effects of harsh punishment and poor self-control on age 14 BPD symptoms were partially mediated by their earlier reciprocal effects on each other between ages 5 and 14. Our findings underscore the need to address both child and parental contributions to dysfunctional transactions in order to stem the development of BPD symptoms. Moreover, problems with self-regulation in early adolescence may indicate heightened risk for subsequent BPD. Altogether, these results increase our understanding of developmental trajectories associated with BPD symptoms in adolescent girls. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Interaction effects in the theory of planned behaviour: Predicting fruit and vegetable consumption in three prospective cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kothe, Emily J; Mullan, Barbara A

    2015-09-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has been criticized for not including interactions between major constructs thought to underlie behaviour. This study investigated the application of the TPB to the prediction of fruit and vegetable consumption across three prospective cohorts. The primary aim of the study was to investigate whether interactions between major constructs in the theory would increase the ability of the model to predict intention to consume fruit and vegetables (i.e., attitude × perceived behavioural control [PBC], subjective norm × PBC, subjective norm × attitude) and self-reported fruit and vegetable intake (i.e., PBC × intention). Secondary data analysis from three cohorts: One predictive study (cohort 1) and two intervention studies (cohorts 2 and 3). Participants completed a TPB measure at baseline and a measure of fruit and vegetable intake at 1 week (cohort 1; n = 90) or 1 month (cohorts 2 and 3; n = 296). Attitude moderated the impact of PBC on intention. PBC moderated the impact of intention on behaviour at 1 week but not 1 month. The variance accounted for by the interactions was small. However, the presence of interactions between constructs within the TPB demonstrates a need to consider interactions between variables within the TPB in both theoretical and applied research using the model. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  17. Comparisons of prediction models of quality of life after laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a longitudinal prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Yi Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Few studies of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC outcome have used longitudinal data for more than two years. Moreover, no studies have considered group differences in factors other than outcome such as age and nonsurgical treatment. Additionally, almost all published articles agree that the essential issue of the internal validity (reproducibility of the artificial neural network (ANN, support vector machine (SVM, Gaussian process regression (GPR and multiple linear regression (MLR models has not been adequately addressed. This study proposed to validate the use of these models for predicting quality of life (QOL after LC and to compare the predictive capability of ANNs with that of SVM, GPR and MLR. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 400 LC patients completed the SF-36 and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index at baseline and at 2 years postoperatively. The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the system models were mean square error (MSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the variables in order of importance. Compared to SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model generally had smaller MSE and MAPE values in the training data set and test data set. Most ANN models had MAPE values ranging from 4.20% to 8.60%, and most had high prediction accuracy. The global sensitivity analysis also showed that preoperative functional status was the best parameter for predicting QOL after LC. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Compared with SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model in this study was more accurate in predicting patient-reported QOL and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

  18. [Predicting bipolar disorder: what can we learn from prospective cohort studies?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffroy, P A; Leboyer, M; Scott, J

    2015-02-01

    Bipolar disorder (BD) is a life course illness; and there is increasing awareness of the many personal, social and economic consequences of the illness in older adults. However, it is important to emphasize that BD usually begins in late adolescence or early adulthood and 75 % cases have a first episode in this age period. This early onset and the associated level of disability mean that BD is the 4th leading cause of global disease burden in adolescents and young adults. Internationally, mental health services are increasingly striving to diagnose and treat BD as early as possible to try to prevent poor outcomes. In addition, researchers are using methods employed previously in psychosis studies as these may help us to recognise the earliest manifestations of BD. If it is possible to identify sub-threshold and 'ultra high risk' syndromes for BD, this might lead to new interventions that could target the prevention of first episodes of mania. One approach to understanding these risk syndromes is to examine prospective community cohort studies and BD offspring studies. This paper reviews prospective cohort studies that identify robust risk factors in early illness onset, which was defined as age at onset of BD between 15-25 years. We found that although > 50 % of individuals who developed BD had developed a putative BD prodrome prior to 14 years of age, this usually began with non-specific symptoms that overlap with similar presentations for those who later develop psychosis or severe depression. However, there are some features that seem to better identify groups with a BD "at-risk" syndrome. This syndrome is frequently composed of several factors such as mood lability, depressive episodes, prior anxiety, sleep and/or conduct disorders, attention and concentration impairment, altered energy patterns, and a family history of mania and/or depression. The course of these early predictors suggests the precursor syndromes are composed of mini-clusters of symptoms many

  19. Lung Volume Reduction Coil Treatment in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients with Homogeneous Emphysema : A Prospective Feasibility Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klooster, Karin; ten Hacken, Nick H. T.; Franz, Ina; Kerstjens, Huib A. M.; van Rikxoort, Eva M.; Slebos, Dirk-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Background: In patients with heterogeneous emphysema, surgical and bronchoscopic lung volume reduction (LVR) treatments are available. However, for patients with homogeneous emphysema these treatments are hardly investigated and seem less effective. Bronchoscopic LVR coil treatment has been shown to

  20. Lung Volume Reduction Coil Treatment in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients with Homogeneous Emphysema: A Prospective Feasibility Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klooster, K.; Hacken, N. Ten; Franz, I.; Kerstjens, H.; Rikxoort, E.M. van; Slebos, D.J.

    2014-01-01

    Background: In patients with heterogeneous emphysema, surgical and bronchoscopic lung volume reduction ({LVR}) treatments are available. However, for patients with homogeneous emphysema these treatments are hardly investigated and seem less effective. Bronchoscopic {LVR} coil treatment has been show

  1. Lung Volume Reduction Coil Treatment in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients with Homogeneous Emphysema : A Prospective Feasibility Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klooster, Karin; ten Hacken, Nick H. T.; Franz, Ina; Kerstjens, Huib A. M.; van Rikxoort, Eva M.; Slebos, Dirk-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Background: In patients with heterogeneous emphysema, surgical and bronchoscopic lung volume reduction (LVR) treatments are available. However, for patients with homogeneous emphysema these treatments are hardly investigated and seem less effective. Bronchoscopic LVR coil treatment has been shown to

  2. Hypoadiponectinemia predicts impaired endothelium-independent vasodilation in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients: an 8-year prospective study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hui; XIAO Yang; LIU Hui; CHEN Xiao-yan; LI Xin-ying; TANG Wei-li; LIU Shi-ping; XU Ai-min; ZHOU Zhi-guang

    2011-01-01

    Background Adiponectin is an adipokine with insulin-sensitising and anti-atherogenic properties.The aim of this study was to investigate whether low adiponectin levels predict the impairment of endothelial function in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients in an 8-year prospective study.Methods In the prospective study,we enrolled 133 newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients without subclinical atherosclerosis and gave them intensive therapy; the mean treatment period was 8 years.Intensive treatment was a stepwise implementation of behavior modification and pharmacological therapy targeting hyperglycaemia,hypertension,dyslipidaemia and obesity.We measured baseline circulating adiponectin with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay,endothelium-dependent and -independent vasodilation by high-resolution vascular ultrasound.At year 8,102 patients were reexamined for endothelium-dependent and -independent vasodilation.Results Sex-adjusted adiponectin level was positively correlated with endothelium-independent vasodilation both at baseline (r=0.150,P=0.043) and at year 8 (r=0.339,P=0.001),whereas no association was found between adiponectin and endothelium-dependent vasodilation.In a stepwise multivariate linear regression model,adiponectin was an independent predictor for impaired endothelium-independent vasodilation at year 8 (P=0.001).Conclusions Plasma adiponectin concentration was associated with endothelium-independent vasodilation and hypoadiponectinemia predicted the impairment of endothelium-independent vasodilation in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients under multifactorial intervention.These data support the causative link of impairment of endothelium-independent vasodilation with hypoadiponectinemia.

  3. Does message framing predict willingness to participate in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial: an application of Prospect Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangeli, Michael; Kafaar, Zuhayr; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie; Bullemor-Day, Philippa

    2013-01-01

    It is vital that enough participants are willing to participate in clinical trials to test HIV vaccines adequately. It is, therefore, necessary to explore what affects peoples' willingness to participate (WTP) in such trials. Studies have only examined individual factors associated with WTP and not the effect of messages about trial participation on potential participants (e.g., whether losses or gains are emphasized, or whether the outcome is certain or uncertain). This study explores whether the effects of message framing on WTP in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial are consistent with Prospect Theory. This theory suggests that people are fundamentally risk averse and that (1) under conditions of low risk and high certainty, gain-framed messages will be influential (2) under conditions of high risk and low certainty, loss-framed messages will be influential. This cross-sectional study recruited 283 HIV-negative students from a South African university who were given a questionnaire that contained matched certain gain-framed, certain loss-framed, uncertain gain-framed, and uncertain loss-framed statements based on common barriers and facilitators of WTP. Participants were asked to rate how likely each statement was to result in their participation in a hypothetical preventative HIV vaccine trial. Consistent with Prospect Theory predictions, for certain outcomes, gain-framed messages were more likely to result in WTP than loss-framed messages. Inconsistent with predictions, loss-framed message were not more likely to be related to WTP for uncertain outcomes than gain-framed messages. Older students were less likely to express their WTP across the different message frames. Recruitment for HIV vaccine trials should pay attention to how messages about the trial are presented to potential participants.

  4. Predictive factors of difficulty in lower third molar extraction: A prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvira-González, Joaquín; Valmaseda-Castellón, Eduard; Quesada-Gómez, Carmen; Gay-Escoda, Cosme

    2017-01-01

    Background Several publications have measured the difficulty of third molar removal, trying to establish the main risk factors, however several important preoperative and intraoperative variables are overlooked. Material and Methods A prospective cohort study comprising a total of 130 consecutive lower third molar extractions was performed. The outcome variables used to measure the difficulty of the extraction were operation time and a 100mm visual analogue scale filled by the surgeon at the end of the surgical procedure. The predictors were divided into 4 different groups (demographic, anatomic, radiographic and operative variables). A descriptive, bivariate and multivariate analysis of the data was performed. Results Patients’ weight, the presence of bulbous roots, the need to perform crown and root sectioning of the lower third molar and Pell and Gregory 123 classification significantly influenced both outcome variables (p< 0.05). Conclusions Certain anatomical, radiological and operative variables appear to be important factors in the assessment of surgical difficulty in the extraction of lower third molars. Key words:Third molar, surgical extraction, surgical difficulty. PMID:27918736

  5. Expectations are more predictive of behavior than behavioral intentions: evidence from two prospective studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armitage, Christopher J; Norman, Paul; Alganem, Soud; Conner, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the gap between people's behavioral intentions and their subsequent behavior is a key problem for behavioral scientists, but little attention has been paid to how behavioral intentions are operationalized. Test the distinction between asking people what they intend to do, as opposed to what they expect they will do. Two studies were conducted in the domains of alcohol consumption (N = 152) and weight loss (N = 141). Participants completed questionnaires assessing their behavioral intentions, expectations, and self-efficacy at baseline; alcohol consumption/weight were assessed at both baseline and follow-up. In study 1, expectations were more predictive of alcohol consumption than behavioral intentions, controlling for baseline alcohol consumption and self-efficacy. In study 2, changes in expectations were more predictive of weight loss than changes in behavioral intentions, controlling for baseline weight and self-efficacy. The findings support a potentially important distinction between behavioral intentions and expectations.

  6. Predictive Treatment Management: Incorporating a Predictive Tumor Response Model Into Robust Prospective Treatment Planning for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Pengpeng; Yorke, Ellen; Hu, Yu-Chi; Mageras, Gig; Rimner, Andreas; Deasy, Joseph O.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose We hypothesized that a treatment planning technique that incorporates predicted lung tumor regression into optimization, predictive treatment planning (PTP), could allow dose escalation to the residual tumor while maintaining coverage of the initial target without increasing dose to surrounding organs at risk (OARs). Methods and Materials We created a model to estimate the geometric presence of residual tumors after radiation therapy using planning computed tomography (CT) and weekly cone beam CT scans of 5 lung cancer patients. For planning purposes, we modeled the dynamic process of tumor shrinkage by morphing the original planning target volume (PTVorig) in 3 equispaced steps to the predicted residue (PTVpred). Patients were treated with a uniform prescription dose to PTVorig. By contrast, PTP optimization started with the same prescription dose to PTVorig but linearly increased the dose at each step, until reaching the highest dose achievable to PTVpred consistent with OAR limits. This method is compared with midcourse adaptive replanning. Results Initial parenchymal gross tumor volume (GTV) ranged from 3.6 to 186.5 cm3. On average, the primary GTV and PTV decreased by 39% and 27%, respectively, at the end of treatment. The PTP approach gave PTVorig at least the prescription dose, and it increased the mean dose of the true residual tumor by an average of 6.0 Gy above the adaptive approach. Conclusions PTP, incorporating a tumor regression model from the start, represents a new approach to increase tumor dose without increasing toxicities, and reduce clinical workload compared with the adaptive approach, although model verification using per-patient midcourse imaging would be prudent. PMID:24315562

  7. Predictive Treatment Management: Incorporating a Predictive Tumor Response Model Into Robust Prospective Treatment Planning for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Pengpeng, E-mail: zhangp@mskcc.org [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Yorke, Ellen; Hu, Yu-Chi; Mageras, Gig [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Rimner, Andreas [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Deasy, Joseph O. [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States)

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: We hypothesized that a treatment planning technique that incorporates predicted lung tumor regression into optimization, predictive treatment planning (PTP), could allow dose escalation to the residual tumor while maintaining coverage of the initial target without increasing dose to surrounding organs at risk (OARs). Methods and Materials: We created a model to estimate the geometric presence of residual tumors after radiation therapy using planning computed tomography (CT) and weekly cone beam CT scans of 5 lung cancer patients. For planning purposes, we modeled the dynamic process of tumor shrinkage by morphing the original planning target volume (PTV{sub orig}) in 3 equispaced steps to the predicted residue (PTV{sub pred}). Patients were treated with a uniform prescription dose to PTV{sub orig}. By contrast, PTP optimization started with the same prescription dose to PTV{sub orig} but linearly increased the dose at each step, until reaching the highest dose achievable to PTV{sub pred} consistent with OAR limits. This method is compared with midcourse adaptive replanning. Results: Initial parenchymal gross tumor volume (GTV) ranged from 3.6 to 186.5 cm{sup 3}. On average, the primary GTV and PTV decreased by 39% and 27%, respectively, at the end of treatment. The PTP approach gave PTV{sub orig} at least the prescription dose, and it increased the mean dose of the true residual tumor by an average of 6.0 Gy above the adaptive approach. Conclusions: PTP, incorporating a tumor regression model from the start, represents a new approach to increase tumor dose without increasing toxicities, and reduce clinical workload compared with the adaptive approach, although model verification using per-patient midcourse imaging would be prudent.

  8. Premorbid Multivariate Prediction of Adult Psychosis-Spectrum Disorder: A High-Risk Prospective Investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Schiffman, Jason; Kline, Emily; Jameson, Nicole; Sorensen, Holger J.; Dodge, Shana; Tsuji, Thomas; Mortensen, Erik L; Mednick, Sarnoff

    2015-01-01

    Premorbid prediction of psychosis-spectrum disorders has implications for both understanding etiology and clinical identification. The current study used a longitudinal high-risk for psychosis design that included children of parents with schizophrenia as well as two groups of controls (children whose parents had no mental illness, and children with at least one parent with a non-psychotic psychiatric diagnosis). Premorbid neurological factors and an indication of social function, as measured...

  9. Incidence and Simple Prediction Model of Hyperuricemia for Urban Han Chinese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Jin; Wang, Chunxia; Zhang, Guang; Ji, Xiang; Liu, Yanxun; Sun, Xiubin; Yuan, Zhongshang; Jiang, Zheng; Xue, Fuzhong

    2017-01-01

    Background: Hyperuricemia (HUA) contributes to gout and many other diseases. Many hyperuricemia-related risk factors have been discovered, which provided the possibility for building the hyperuricemia prediction model. In this study we aimed to explore the incidence of hyperuricemia and develop hyperuricemia prediction models based on the routine biomarkers for both males and females in urban Han Chinese adults. Methods: A cohort of 58,542 members of the urban population (34,980 males and 23,562 females) aged 20–80 years old, free of hyperuricemia at baseline examination, was followed up for a median 2.5 years. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to develop gender-specific prediction models. Harrell’s C-statistics was used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the models, and the 10-fold cross-validation was used to validate the models. Results: In 7139 subjects (5585 males and 1554 females), hyperuricemia occurred during a median of 2.5 years of follow-up, leading to a total incidence density of 49.63/1000 person years (64.62/1000 person years for males and 27.12/1000 person years for females). The predictors of hyperuricemia were age, body mass index (BMI) systolic blood pressure, serum uric acid for males, and BMI, systolic blood pressure, serum uric acid, triglycerides for females. The models’ C statistics were 0.783 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.779–0.786) for males and 0.784 (95% CI, 0.778–0.789) for females. After 10-fold cross-validation, the C statistics were still steady, with 0.782 for males and 0.783 for females. Conclusions: In this study, gender-specific prediction models for hyperuricemia for urban Han Chinese adults were developed and performed well.

  10. Unhappiness and dissatisfaction in doctors cannot be predicted by selectors from medical school application forms: A prospective, longitudinal study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferguson E

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Personal statements and referees' reports are widely used on medical school application forms, particularly in the UK, to assess the suitability of candidates for a career in medicine. However there are few studies which assess the validity of such information for predicting unhappiness or dissatisfaction with a career in medicine. Here we combine data from a long-term prospective study of medical student selection and training, with an experimental approach in which a large number of assessors used a paired comparison technique to predict outcome. Methods Data from a large-scale prospective study of students applying to UK medical schools in 1990 were used to identify 40 pairs of doctors, matched by sex, for whom personal statements and referees' reports were available, and who in a 2002/3 follow-up study, one pair member was very satisfied and the other very dissatisfied with medicine as a career. In 2005, 96 assessors, who were experienced medical school selectors, doctors, medical students or psychology students, used information from the doctors' original applications to judge which member of each pair of doctors was the happier, more satisfied doctor. Results None of the groups of assessors were significantly different from chance expectations in using applicants' personal statements and the referees' reports to predict actual future satisfaction or dissatisfaction, the distribution being similar to binomial expectations. However judgements of pairs of application forms from pairs of doctors showed a non-binomial distribution, indicating consensus among assessors as to which doctor would be the happy doctor (although the consensus was wrong in half the cases. Assessors taking longer to do the task concurred more. Consensus judgements seem mainly to be based on referees' predictions of academic achievement (even though academic achievement is not actually a valid predictor of happiness or satisfaction. Conclusion

  11. Validation of three new measure-correlate-predict models\\ud for the long-term prospection of the wind resource

    OpenAIRE

    Romo, Alejandro; Amezcua, Javier; Probst, Oliver

    2011-01-01

    The estimation of the long-term wind resource at a prospective site based on a relatively short on-site measurement campaign is an indispensable task in the development of a commercial wind farm. The typical industry approach is based on the measure-correlate-predict �MCP� method where a relational model between the site wind velocity data and the data obtained from a suitable reference site is built from concurrent records. In a subsequent step, a long-term prediction for the prospective\\ud ...

  12. Predicted versus measured thoracic gas volumes of collegiate athletes made by the BOD POD air displacement plethysmography system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Dale R

    2015-10-01

    Measured (TGVm) and predicted (TGVp) thoracic gas volumes from the BOD POD were compared in 33 lean, university athletes. On average, TGVp (3.529 L) was not significantly different (p = 0.343) from TGVm (3.628 L); however, there was a bias (r = -0.703, p < 0.001). The difference in the percentage of body fat (BF) was within ±2% BF for 76% of the sample, but athletes at the extremes of height should have TGV measured.

  13. A prospective pilot investigation of brain volume, white matter hyperintensities and haemorrhagic lesions after mild traumatic brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eJarrett

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic brain injury (TBI is among the most common neurological disorders. Haemorrhagic lesions and white matter hyperintensities (WMH are radiological features associated with moderate and severe traumatic brain injury TBI. Brain volume reductions have also been observed during the months following injury. In concussion, no signs of injury are observed on conventional MRI, which may be a true feature of concussion or merely due to the limited sensitivity of imaging techniques used so far. Moreover, it is not known whether volume reductions are due to the resolution of trauma related edema or a true volume loss. Forty five collegiate level ice hockey players (20 female and 15 controls (9 female 40 players underwent 3T MRI for haemorrhages (multi echo susceptibility weighted imaging (SWI, WMH (three dimensional FLAIR and brain volume at the beginning and the end of the hockey season. Concussed athletes underwent additional imaging and neuropsychological testing atthree days, two weeks, and two months after injury. At the end of the hockey season, brain volume was reduced compared to controls by 0.32% (p<0.034 in the whole cohort and by 0.26% (p<0.09 in the concussed athletes. Two weeks and two months after concussion, brain volume was reduced by -0.08% (p=0.027 and -0.23% (p=0.035, respectively. In athletes, the WMH were significantly closer to the interface between grey matter and white matter compared to controls. No significant changes in thenumber of WMH over the duration of the study were found in athletes. No microhaemorrhages were detected as a result of concussion or playing a season of ice hockey. We conclude that mild TBI does not lead to transient increases in brain volume and no new microbleeds or WMH are detectable after concussion. Brain volume reductions appear by two weeks after concussion and persist until at least two months after concussion. Brain volume is reduced between the beginning and the end of the icehockey season.

  14. Tracking blood glucose and predicting prediabetes in Chinese children and adolescents: a prospective twin study.

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    Guoying Wang

    Full Text Available We examined the tracking of blood glucose, the development of prediabetes, and estimated their genetic contributions in a prospective, healthy, rural Chinese twin cohort. This report includes 1,766 subjects (998 males, 768 females aged 6-21 years at baseline who completed a 6-year follow-up study. Oral glucose tolerance test was performed for all subjects at both baseline and follow-up. We found that subjects with low fasting plasma glucose (FPG or 2 h post-load glucose (PG levels at baseline tended to remain at the low level at follow-up. Subjects in the top tertile of baseline plasma glucose tended to have a higher risk of developing prediabetes at follow-up compared to the low tertile: in males, 37.6% vs. 27.6% for FPG and 37.2% vs. 25.7% for 2hPG, respectively; in females, 31.0% vs. 15.4% for FPG and 28.9% vs. 15.1% for 2 h PG, respectively. Genetic factors explained 43% and 41% of the variance of FPG, and 72% and 47% for impaired fasting glucose for males and females, respectively; environmental factors substantially contribute to 2hPG status and impaired glucose tolerance. In conclusion, in this cohort of healthy rural Chinese children and adolescents, we demonstrated that both FPG and 2hPG tracked well and was a strong predictor of prediabetes. The high proportion of children with top tertile of blood glucose progressed to prediabetes, and the incidence of prediabetes has a male predominance. Genetic factors play more important role in fasting than postload status, most of which was explained by unique environmental factors.

  15. Impact of tumour volume on prediction of progression-free survival in sinonasal cancer

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    Hennersdorf Florian

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background. The present study aimed to analyse potential prognostic factors, with emphasis on tumour volume, in determining progression free survival (PFS for malignancies of the nasal cavity and the paranasal sinuses.

  16. PREDICTION OF CARBON CONCENTRATION AND FERRITE VOLUME FRACTION OF HOT-ROLLED STEEL STRIP DURING LAMINAR COOLING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    A phase transformation model was presented for predicting the phase fraction transformed and the carbon concentration in austenite for austenite to ferrite transformation during laminar cooling on run-out table in hot rolling strip mill. In this model, the parameter k in Avrami equation was developed for carbon steels. The wide range of chemical composition, the primary austenite grain size, and the retained strain were taken into account. It can be used to predict the ferrite volume fraction and the carbon concentration in austenite of hot-rolled steel strip during laminar cooling on run-out table. The coiling temperature controlling model was also presented to calculate the temperature of steel strip. The transformation kinetics of austenite to ferrite and the evolution of carbon concentration in austenite at different temperatures during cooling were investigated in the hot rolled Q235B strip for thickness of 9.35, 6.4, and 3.2mm. The ferrite volume fraction along the length of the strip was also calculated. The calculated ferrite volume fraction was compared with the log data from hot strip mill and the calculated results were in agreement with the experimental ones. The present study is a part of the prediction of the mechanical properties of hot-rolled steel strip, and it has already been used on-line and off-line in the hot strip mill.

  17. Validation of the Lacaine-Huguier predictive score for choledocholithiasis: prospective study of 380 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalfallah, M; Dougaz, W; Bedoui, R; Bouasker, I; Chaker, Y; Nouira, R; Dziri, C

    2012-02-01

    The aim of this study was to validate the Lacaine-Huguier score for the prediction of asymptomatic choledocholithiasis. The study enrolled patients over age 18 with symptomatic chronic or acute calculous cholecystitis. Patients already known to have common bile duct stones (CBDS), as evidenced by symptomatic presentation with acute cholangitis or acute gallstone pancreatitis, were not included. We compared the group of patients with a score less than 3.5 versus those with a score greater or equal to 3.5; we also compared the group of patients who underwent intraoperative cholangiography (IOC) with those who did not undergo IOC. The negative predictive value of the Lacaine-Huguier score was calculated. We note that 308 women and 72 men were consecutively enrolled between February 2008 to March 2009; the average age was 51±16.4 years. The score was less than 3.5 in 154 patients (40.5%). IOC was only performed in 135 of the 226 patients with a score greater or equal to 3.5; reasons for this included a very narrow cystic duct in 67 cases, preoperative miscalculation of the score in nine cases, a technical problem in eight cases, an unspecified reason in four cases, contraindication due to pregnancy in two cases, and intraoperative difficulties in one case. CBDS were detected by IOC in 18 cases. Performance of IOC lengthened the median operative time by 20 minutes. The median follow-up was 8 months (range: 0-30 months). Eleven patients were lost to follow-up (2.9%), six of these had a score less than 3.5. Two patients had residual common bile duct (CBD) stones, one of whom had a score less than 3.5. The negative predictive value was 99.4% (95% confidence interval (CI 95%)=[98-100%]). The risk of leaving a stone in the CBD was 0.6%. When data was analyzed according to the worst case scenario, the negative predictive value became 95.5% (CI 95%=[92-99%]) with a risk of residual CBDS of 4.5%. This study confirmed the validity of the Lacaine-Huguier score. When the score is

  18. Prospective large-scale field study generates predictive model identifying major contributors to colony losses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merav Gleit Kielmanowicz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decade, unusually high losses of colonies have been reported by beekeepers across the USA. Multiple factors such as Varroa destructor, bee viruses, Nosema ceranae, weather, beekeeping practices, nutrition, and pesticides have been shown to contribute to colony losses. Here we describe a large-scale controlled trial, in which different bee pathogens, bee population, and weather conditions across winter were monitored at three locations across the USA. In order to minimize influence of various known contributing factors and their interaction, the hives in the study were not treated with antibiotics or miticides. Additionally, the hives were kept at one location and were not exposed to potential stress factors associated with migration. Our results show that a linear association between load of viruses (DWV or IAPV in Varroa and bees is present at high Varroa infestation levels (>3 mites per 100 bees. The collection of comprehensive data allowed us to draw a predictive model of colony losses and to show that Varroa destructor, along with bee viruses, mainly DWV replication, contributes to approximately 70% of colony losses. This correlation further supports the claim that insufficient control of the virus-vectoring Varroa mite would result in increased hive loss. The predictive model also indicates that a single factor may not be sufficient to trigger colony losses, whereas a combination of stressors appears to impact hive health.

  19. Overgeneral autobiographical memory predicts higher prospective levels of depressive symptoms and intrusions in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Broeck, Kris; Pieters, Guido; Claes, Laurence; Berens, Ann; Raes, Filip

    2016-11-01

    Overgeneral memory (OGM), the tendency to retrieve categories of events from autobiographical memory instead of single events, is found to be a reliable predictor for future mood disturbances and post-traumatic symptom severity. Patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD) often report co-morbid episodes of major depressive disorder (MDD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Therefore, we investigated whether OGM would predict depression severity and (post-traumatic) stress symptoms in BPD patients. At admission (N = 54) and at six-month follow-up (N ≥ 31), BPD patients completed the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders, the Assessment of DSM-IV Personality Disorders, the Autobiographical Memory Test, the Beck Depression Inventory-2nd edition (BDI-II), and the Impact of Event Scale. OGM at baseline predicted (a) higher levels of depressive symptoms at follow-up and (b) more intrusions related to a stressful event over and above baseline levels of borderline symptoms, depressive symptoms, and intrusions, respectively. No association was found between memory specificity and event-related avoidance at follow-up. Despite previous findings suggesting that OGM in BPD is less robust than in MDD and PTSD, our results suggest that memory specificity in BPD patients may have some relevance for the course of depressive and stress symptomatology in BPD.

  20. Proinflammatory Markers in Prediction of Posttraumatic Psychological Symptoms: A Prospective Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alasdair George Sutherland

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Posttraumatic psychopathology (PTP describes the spectrum of conditions that can complicate the recovery from commonly occurring musculoskeletal trauma. There is a clear association with the activation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPAA, and we wished to examine the predictive value of proinflammatory markers of the HPAA and of the GABA, which acts as an inhibitory regulator. Methods. Levels of proinflammatory markers and GABA were measured in 84 patients who had suffered musculoskeletal injuries requiring hospitalisation. PTP was assessed by the use of the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ at presentation and again at two- and six-month reviews. Results. Significant psychological disturbance was noted in 39% of patients at two months and falling back to 18% by six months. There was no correlation between any of the markers tested at presentation and PTP at follow-up. Discussion. The HPAA response to trauma and the development of PTP are extremely complex. It is unlikely that a simple blood assay will provide significant predictive information, while incident specific information and patient perception are of more practical use.

  1. Prospective large-scale field study generates predictive model identifying major contributors to colony losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kielmanowicz, Merav Gleit; Inberg, Alex; Lerner, Inbar Maayan; Golani, Yael; Brown, Nicholas; Turner, Catherine Louise; Hayes, Gerald J R; Ballam, Joan M

    2015-04-01

    Over the last decade, unusually high losses of colonies have been reported by beekeepers across the USA. Multiple factors such as Varroa destructor, bee viruses, Nosema ceranae, weather, beekeeping practices, nutrition, and pesticides have been shown to contribute to colony losses. Here we describe a large-scale controlled trial, in which different bee pathogens, bee population, and weather conditions across winter were monitored at three locations across the USA. In order to minimize influence of various known contributing factors and their interaction, the hives in the study were not treated with antibiotics or miticides. Additionally, the hives were kept at one location and were not exposed to potential stress factors associated with migration. Our results show that a linear association between load of viruses (DWV or IAPV) in Varroa and bees is present at high Varroa infestation levels (>3 mites per 100 bees). The collection of comprehensive data allowed us to draw a predictive model of colony losses and to show that Varroa destructor, along with bee viruses, mainly DWV replication, contributes to approximately 70% of colony losses. This correlation further supports the claim that insufficient control of the virus-vectoring Varroa mite would result in increased hive loss. The predictive model also indicates that a single factor may not be sufficient to trigger colony losses, whereas a combination of stressors appears to impact hive health.

  2. Predicting DUI recidivism of male drunken driving: a prospective study of the impact of alcohol markers and previous drunken driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portman, M; Penttilä, A; Haukka, J; Eriksson, P; Alho, H; Kuoppasalmi, K

    2010-01-15

    The aim of the present study was to determine whether the alcohol biomarkers CDT, GGT, the biomarker gamma-CDT index and previous drunken driving contributed significantly to the prediction of DUI recidivism. The subjects consisted of two different samples of drivers, viz. drivers who were found to have a positive breath alcohol concentration during random breath testing surveys (n=237), and drunken drivers who were apprehended during ordinary police work (n=193). The drunken driving events were monitored using a data-base both retrospectively and prospectively. It was found that the biomarker index, gamma-CDT, emerged as a notable predictor of recidivism in the group of random breath tested drivers. Measurement of gamma-CDT and its impact on DUI recidivism has not to our knowledge been applied to random breath tested drivers before. The apprehended drunken drivers, on the other hand, did not show a significant relationship between gamma-CDT and DUI recidivism. However, in both groups of drivers it was found that a previous conviction for drunken driving strongly predicted DUI recidivism. More attention should be paid by both physicians and the police to the high risk of recidivism among those convicted of drunken driving.

  3. Non-suicidal self-injury prospectively predicts interpersonal stressful life events and depressive symptoms among adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Taylor A; Hamilton, Jessica L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2015-08-30

    Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) is the deliberate self-harm of one's tissue, engaged in without lethal intent, and occurs frequently among late adolescents. Although research has indicated that NSSI predicts depression, the potential psychosocial mechanisms through which engagement in NSSI makes one susceptible to future depressive symptoms remain unclear. The present study examined whether NSSI increases the risk of experiencing stressful life events, which, in turn, heightens the risk for subsequent depressive symptoms. Drawn from a sample specifically selected for adolescents at high and low risk for developing bipolar spectrum disorders, a total of 110 late-adolescents (mean age=18.74, SD=.69; 73% female) were administered measures of lifetime and past year engagement in NSSI and current depressive symptomatology. Approximately 6 months later, they completed a measure of depressive symptoms and a questionnaire and interview assessing life events that occurred over the 6-month interval. Results suggest that the frequency of lifetime and past year NSSI predicted the occurrence of interpersonal stressful life events beyond the effects of initial depressive symptoms, but only for late adolescent girls. Results further suggest that higher levels of interpersonal stressful life events mediated the relationship between NSSI frequency and prospective increases in depressive symptoms among girls.

  4. A prospective cohort study of deficient maternal nurturing attitudes predicting adulthood work stress independent of adulthood hostility and depressive symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintsanen, M; Kivimäki, M; Hintsa, T; Theorell, T; Elovainio, M; Raitakari, O T; Viikari, J S A; Keltikangas-Järvinen, L

    2010-09-01

    Stressful childhood environments arising from deficient nurturing attitudes are hypothesized to contribute to later stress vulnerability. We examined whether deficient nurturing attitudes predict adulthood work stress. Participants were 443 women and 380 men from the prospective Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. Work stress was assessed as job strain and effort-reward imbalance in 2001 when the participants were from 24 to 39 years old. Deficient maternal nurturance (intolerance and low emotional warmth) was assessed based on mothers' reports when the participants were at the age of 3-18 years and again at the age of 6-21 years. Linear regressions showed that deficient emotional warmth in childhood predicted lower adulthood job control and higher job strain. These associations were not explained by age, gender, socioeconomic circumstances, maternal mental problems or participant hostility, and depressive symptoms. Deficient nurturing attitudes in childhood might affect sensitivity to work stress and selection into stressful work conditions in adulthood. More attention should be paid to pre-employment factors in work stress research.

  5. The harmonic ratio of trunk acceleration predicts falling among older people: results of a 1-year prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doi Takehiko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gait variables derived from trunk accelerometry may predict the risk of falls; however, their associations with falls are not fully understood. The purpose of the study was to determine which gait variables derived from upper and lower trunk accelerometry are associated with the incidence of falls, and to compare the discriminative ability of gait variables and physical performance. Methods This study was a 1-year prospective study. Older people (n = 73 walked normally while wearing accelerometers attached to the upper and lower trunk. Participants were classified as fallers (n = 16 or non-fallers (n = 57 based on the incidence of falls over 1 year. The harmonic ratio (HR of the upper and lower trunk was measured. Physical performance was measured in five chair stands and in the timed up and go test. Results The HR of the upper and lower trunk were consistently lower in fallers than non-fallers (P P Conclusions HR derived from upper trunk accelerometry may predict the risk of falls, independently of physical performance. The discriminative ability of HR for the risk of falls may have some validity, and further studies are needed to confirm the clinical relevance of trunk HR.

  6. The Predictive Value of Integrated Pulmonary Index after Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Prospective Observational Study

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    Evgenia V. Fot

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe early warning scores may increase the safety of perioperative period. The objective of this study was to assess the diagnostic and predictive role of Integrated Pulmonary Index (IPI after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB.Materials and MethodsForty adult patients undergoing elective OPCAB were enrolled into a single-center prospective observational study. We assessed respiratory function using IPI that includes oxygen saturation, end-tidal CO2, respiratory rate, and pulse rate. In addition, we evaluated blood gas analyses and hemodynamics, including ECG, invasive arterial pressure, and cardiac index. The measurements were performed after transfer to the intensive care unit, after spontaneous breathing trial and at 2, 6, 12, and 18 h after extubation.Results and DiscussionThe value of IPI registered during respiratory support correlated weakly with cardiac index (rho = 0.4; p = 0.04 and ScvO2 (rho = 0.4, p = 0.02. After extubation, IPI values decreased significantly, achieving a minimum by 18 h. The IPI value ≤9 at 6 h after extubation was a predictor of complicated early postoperative period (AUC = 0.71; p = 0.04 observed in 13 patients.ConclusionIn off-pump coronary surgery, the IPI decreases significantly after tracheal extubation and may predict postoperative complications.

  7. A prospective study of breast anthropomorphic measurements, volume and ptosis in 605 Asian patients with breast cancer or benign breast disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Miao; Chen, Jia-jian; Yang, Ben-long; Huang, Xiao-yan; Wu, Jiong

    2017-01-01

    Objectives The current study aims to summarize breast anthropomorphic measurement features in Chinese patients with breast diseases and to investigate their potential correlations with demographic factors. Materials and methods Fifteen breast anthropomorphic parameters of 605 Chinese female patients were collected prospectively. Breast ptosis status was scaled by two methods and breast volume was calculated according to a modified formula of BREAST-V. Results Among 1210 breasts, the average breast volume was 340.0±109.1 ml (91.8–919.2 ml). The distance from the nipple to the inframammary fold was 7.5±1.6 cm in the standing position. The width of the breast base was 14.3±1.4 cm (8.5–23.5 cm). The incidence of breast ptosis was 22.8% (274/1204), of which 37 (23.5%) and 79 (31.7%) women had severe ptosis assessed by different criteria. Increased height (OR[odds ratio] = 1.500, Pcosmetic and reconstructive breast surgery decisions. Post-menopausal status, increased BMI, and breastfeeding for more than six months were independent risk factors for both increased breast volume and breast ptosis. PMID:28192525

  8. Validating prediction scales of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Spain: the SPREDIA-2 population-based prospective cohort study protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinero-Fort, Miguel Ángel; de Burgos-Lunar, Carmen; Mostaza Prieto, José; Lahoz Rallo, Carlos; Abánades-Herranz, Juan Carlos; Gómez-Campelo, Paloma; Laguna Cuesta, Fernando; Estirado De Cabo, Eva; García Iglesias, Francisca; González Alegre, Teresa; Fernández Puntero, Belén; Montesano Sánchez, Luis; Vicent López, David; Cornejo Del Río, Víctor; Fernández García, Pedro J; Sabín Rodríguez, Concesa; López López, Silvia; Patrón Barandío, Pedro

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasing worldwide. When diagnosed, many patients already have organ damage or advance subclinical atherosclerosis. An early diagnosis could allow the implementation of lifestyle changes and treatment options aimed at delaying the progression of the disease and to avoid cardiovascular complications. Different scores for identifying undiagnosed diabetes have been reported, however, their performance in populations of southern Europe has not been sufficiently evaluated. The main objectives of our study are: to evaluate the screening performance and cut-off points of the main scores that identify the risk of undiagnosed T2DM and prediabetes in a Spanish population, and to develop and validate our own predictive models of undiagnosed T2DM (screening model), and future T2DM (prediction risk model) after 5-year follow-up. As a secondary objective, we will evaluate the atherosclerotic burden of the population with undiagnosed T2DM. Methods and analysis Population-based prospective cohort study with baseline screening, to evaluate the performance of the FINDRISC, DANISH, DESIR, ARIC and QDScore, against the gold standard tests: Fasting plasma glucose, oral glucose tolerance and/or HbA1c. The sample size will include 1352 participants between the ages of 45 and 74 years. Analysis: sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, likelihood ratio positive, likelihood ratio negative and receiver operating characteristic curves and area under curve. Binary logistic regression for the first 700 individuals (derivation) and last 652 (validation) will be performed. All analyses will be calculated with their 95% CI; statistical significance will be p<0.05. Ethics and dissemination The study protocol has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Carlos III Hospital (Madrid). The score performance and predictive model will be presented in medical conferences, workshops

  9. [Prediction and prevention of type 1 diabetes mellitus: initial results and recent prospects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madácsy, László

    2011-11-27

    Epidemiological studies indicate that the incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus is rising worldwide. The increase in incidence has been most prominent in the youngest age group of childhood. Prediction of type 1a autoimmune diabetes can be established by a positive family history or by genetic, immunological or metabolic markers. Prevention of type 1 diabetes can be implemented at three different levels of pathogenesis: primary prevention in individuals without any sign of beta-cell damage, secondary prevention in individuals with signs of beta-cell destruction and tertiary prevention in patients with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. In recent years our knowledge of the disease pathogenesis has grown quickly, and several new prevention trials have been initiated worldwide. Immunologic intervention for type 1 diabetes will prove to be probably the most effective.

  10. Relevance of MRI in prediction of malignancy of musculoskeletal system-A prospective evaluation

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    Wahab Shagufta

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this study is to evaluate the role of MRI in musculoskeletal tumours, especially, in prediction of malignancy & to compare whether the diagnosis made on MRI correlates with the cytological/histopathological diagnosis. Methods 50 consecutive patients presenting in the Outpatient and Inpatient department of the Department of Orthopaedics or Casualty of Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College and Hospital, AMU, Aligarh, India were included in this study. They were subjected to MR examination on 1.5 Tesla superconducting system (MAGNETOM Avanto, Siemens. After localizer sequences, T1W and STIR images were obtained in longitudinal planes followed by T2W and post contrast T1W images in axial planes. Additional sequences were taken when required. Various imaging characteristics of tumours were evaluated statistically and their respective sensitivity and specificity in prediction of malignancy were obtained. Results Features associated with benign diagnosis in a large percentage of cases, are size less than 8 cm, sharp margination, homogeneous T2 signal, absence of oedema, necrosis, calcification and fluid-fluid levels. Similarly, malignant tumours are commonly associated with presence of irregular margins, inhomogeneous signal intensity, oedema, necrosis, haemorrhage, fascial penetration, bone changes and neurovascular involvement. A correct histological diagnosis is reached on the basis of imaging studies alone in 65% to 75% of cases. The sensitivity for a MRI diagnosis of malignant tumour was 95% and specificity was 84%. Conclusion Differentiation of malignant from benign lesions of musculoskeletal system is best made by a combination of clinical and imaging parameters rather than by any single MR characteristic. When a lesion has a non-specific MR imaging appearance, it is useful to formulate a suitably ordered differential diagnosis based on tumour prevalence, patient age, and anatomic location. A systematic approach

  11. Use of the SONET Score to Evaluate High Volume Emergency Department Overcrowding: A Prospective Derivation and Validation Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The accuracy and utility of current Emergency Department (ED crowding estimation tools remain uncertain in EDs with high annual volumes. We aimed at deriving a more accurate tool to evaluate overcrowding in a high volume ED setting and determine the association between ED overcrowding and patient care outcomes. Methods. A novel scoring tool (SONET: Severely overcrowded-Overcrowded-Not overcrowded Estimation Tool was developed and validated in two EDs with both annual volumes exceeding 100,000. Patient care outcomes including the number of left without being seen (LWBS patients, average length of ED stay, ED 72-hour returns, and mortality were compared under the different crowding statuses. Results. The total number of ED patients, the number of mechanically ventilated patients, and patient acuity levels were independent risk factors affecting ED overcrowding. SONET was derived and found to better differentiate severely overcrowded, overcrowded, and not overcrowded statuses with similar results validated externally. In addition, SONET scores correlated with increased length of ED stay, number of LWBS patients, and ED 72-hour returns. Conclusions. SONET might be a better fit to determine high volume ED overcrowding. ED overcrowding negatively impacts patient care operations and often produces poor patient perceptions of standardized care delivery.

  12. Brain volumes predict neurodevelopment in adolescents after surgery for congenital heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Rhein, Michael; Buchmann, Andreas; Hagmann, Cornelia; Huber, Reto; Klaver, Peter; Knirsch, Walter; Latal, Beatrice

    2014-01-01

    Patients with complex congenital heart disease are at risk for neurodevelopmental impairments. Evidence suggests that brain maturation can be delayed and pre- and postoperative brain injury may occur, and there is limited information on the long-term effect of congenital heart disease on brain development and function in adolescent patients. At a mean age of 13.8 years, 39 adolescent survivors of childhood cardiopulmonary bypass surgery with no structural brain lesions evident through conventional cerebral magnetic resonance imaging and 32 healthy control subjects underwent extensive neurodevelopmental assessment and cerebral magnetic resonance imaging. Cerebral scans were analysed quantitatively using surface-based and voxel-based morphometry. Compared with control subjects, patients had lower total brain (P = 0.003), white matter (P = 0.004) and cortical grey matter (P = 0.005) volumes, whereas cerebrospinal fluid volumes were not different. Regional brain volume reduction ranged from 5.3% (cortical grey matter) to 11% (corpus callosum). Adolescents with cyanotic heart disease showed more brain volume loss than those with acyanotic heart disease, particularly in the white matter, thalami, hippocampi and corpus callosum (all P-values Brain volume reduction correlated significantly with cognitive, motor and executive functions (grey matter: P < 0.05, white matter: P < 0.01). Our findings suggest that there are long-lasting cerebral changes in adolescent survivors of cardiopulmonary bypass surgery for congenital heart disease and that these changes are associated with functional outcome.

  13. Accuracy evaluation of Fourier series analysis and singular spectrum analysis for predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasmita, Yoga; Darmawan, Gumgum

    2017-08-01

    This research aims to evaluate the performance of forecasting by Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) which are more explorative and not requiring parametric assumption. Those methods are applied to predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia from January 2005 to December 2016 (monthly). Both models are suitable for seasonal and trend component data. Technically, FSA defines time domain as the result of trend and seasonal component in different frequencies which is difficult to identify in the time domain analysis. With the hidden period is 2,918 ≈ 3 and significant model order is 3, FSA model is used to predict testing data. Meanwhile, SSA has two main processes, decomposition and reconstruction. SSA decomposes the time series data into different components. The reconstruction process starts with grouping the decomposition result based on similarity period of each component in trajectory matrix. With the optimum of window length (L = 53) and grouping effect (r = 4), SSA predicting testing data. Forecasting accuracy evaluation is done based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The result shows that in the next 12 month, SSA has MAPE = 13.54 percent, MAE = 61,168.43 and RMSE = 75,244.92 and FSA has MAPE = 28.19 percent, MAE = 119,718.43 and RMSE = 142,511.17. Therefore, to predict volume of motorcycle sales in the next period should use SSA method which has better performance based on its accuracy.

  14. Volume of blood suctioned during vacuum-assisted breast biopsy predicts later hematoma formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panopoulou Effrosyni

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To evaluate whether the volume of blood suctioned during vacuum-assisted breast biopsy (VABB is associated with hematoma formation and progression, patient's age and histology of the lesion. Findings 177 women underwent VABB according to standardized protocol. The volume of blood suctioned and hematoma formation were noted at the end of the procedure, as did the subsequent development and progression of hematoma. First- and second-order logistic regression was performed, where appropriate. Cases with hematoma presented with greater volume of blood suctioned (63.8 ± 44.7 cc vs. 17.2 ± 32.9 cc; p Conclusion The likelihood of hematoma is increasing along with increasing amount of blood suctioned, reaching a plateau approximately at 80 cc of blood lost.

  15. Predicting Nonauditory Adverse Radiation Effects Following Radiosurgery for Vestibular Schwannoma: A Volume and Dosimetric Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayhurst, Caroline; Monsalves, Eric; Bernstein, Mark; Gentili, Fred [Gamma Knife Unit, Division of Neurosurgery, University Health Network, Toronto (Canada); Heydarian, Mostafa; Tsao, May [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Schwartz, Michael [Radiation Oncology Program and Division of Neurosurgery, Sunnybrook Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Prooijen, Monique van [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Millar, Barbara-Ann; Menard, Cynthia [Radiation Oncology Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Kulkarni, Abhaya V. [Division of Neurosurgery, Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto (Canada); Laperriere, Norm [Radiation Oncology Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Zadeh, Gelareh, E-mail: Gelareh.Zadeh@uhn.on.ca [Gamma Knife Unit, Division of Neurosurgery, University Health Network, Toronto (Canada)

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To define clinical and dosimetric predictors of nonauditory adverse radiation effects after radiosurgery for vestibular schwannoma treated with a 12 Gy prescription dose. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed our experience of vestibular schwannoma patients treated between September 2005 and December 2009. Two hundred patients were treated at a 12 Gy prescription dose; 80 had complete clinical and radiological follow-up for at least 24 months (median, 28.5 months). All treatment plans were reviewed for target volume and dosimetry characteristics; gradient index; homogeneity index, defined as the maximum dose in the treatment volume divided by the prescription dose; conformity index; brainstem; and trigeminal nerve dose. All adverse radiation effects (ARE) were recorded. Because the intent of our study was to focus on the nonauditory adverse effects, hearing outcome was not evaluated in this study. Results: Twenty-seven (33.8%) patients developed ARE, 5 (6%) developed hydrocephalus, 10 (12.5%) reported new ataxia, 17 (21%) developed trigeminal dysfunction, 3 (3.75%) had facial weakness, and 1 patient developed hemifacial spasm. The development of edema within the pons was significantly associated with ARE (p = 0.001). On multivariate analysis, only target volume is a significant predictor of ARE (p = 0.001). There is a target volume threshold of 5 cm3, above which ARE are more likely. The treatment plan dosimetric characteristics are not associated with ARE, although the maximum dose to the 5th nerve is a significant predictor of trigeminal dysfunction, with a threshold of 9 Gy. The overall 2-year tumor control rate was 96%. Conclusions: Target volume is the most important predictor of adverse radiation effects, and we identified the significant treatment volume threshold to be 5 cm3. We also established through our series that the maximum tolerable dose to the 5th nerve is 9 Gy.

  16. Value of three-dimensional volume-rendering CT pulmonary contusion volume measurement in prediction of ARDS development%三维CT容积再现技术行肺挫伤容积测定预测ARDS的价值

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王邵华; 周文勇; 赵明川; 张辉; 陈晓峰

    2014-01-01

    Objective To investigate the value of three-dimensional CT volume rendering in predicting ARDS following pulmonary contusion and identifying high-risk patients.Methods Seventy-one cases of pulmonary contusion (AIS > 2 points) confirmed by chest CT during an emergency admission between July 2010 and June 2011 were enrolled.Using computer-generated three-dimensional reconstruction,contusion volume was measured and expressed as a percentage of total lung volume.The admission data,such as blood gas analysis results,systolic arterial pressure,hematocrit,AIS,ISS,and injury distribution,were prospectively collected.Independent predictive factors of ARDS following pulmonary contusion was identified using logistic regression analysis and further estimation on accuracy and value of the predictors were performed.Influence of contusion volume percentage on clinical outcomes was detected.Results Of all,mean contusion volume percentage was (22.07 ± 14.50)% (range,5.60%-61.00%),which was not strongly correlated to the admission PaO2/FiO2 ratio (R2 =0.059).ARDS and infection were diagnosed in 31 cases and 25 cases respectively.PaO2/FiO2 ratio and contusion volume percentage were independent predictive factors of ARDS after pulmonary contusion.The best cut-off of contusion percentage in predicting ARDS development was 21.5% with a specificity of 80.0%,sensitivity of 71.0%,positive predictive value of 73.3%,and negative predictive value of 78.1%.Conclusion Three-dimensional CT volume rendering technique allows quantification of pulmonary contusion and identification of patients at high risk of ARDS,to whom further treatment may be directed.%目的 探讨三维CT容积再现技术行肺挫伤容积测定对预测肺挫伤后ARDS发生和识别高危患者的价值. 方法 选取2010年7月-2011年6月急诊胸部CT检查确诊肺挫伤中胸部AIS>2分的71例患者,通过计算机软件重建肺挫伤病变范围并三维容积再现技术测定肺挫伤病变

  17. Affect lability predicts occurrence of suicidal ideation in bipolar patients: a two-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducasse, D; Jaussent, I; Guillaume, S; Azorin, J M; Bellivier, F; Belzeaux, R; Bougerol, T; Etain, B; Gard, S; Henry, C; Kahn, J P; Leboyer, M; Loftus, J; Passerieux, C; Olié, E; Courtet, P

    2017-05-01

    The aim of our study was to investigate, in bipolar patients, whether affect lability was associated with suicidal ideation incidence during 2-year follow-up, and which subtype of affect lability was associated with suicidal ideation. A total of 319 euthymic or mildly depressed bipolar outpatients recruited in the French FondaMental Advanced Centres of Expertise for Bipolar Disorder were divided into two subgroups according to the occurrence of suicidal ideation during a 2-year follow-up. Affect lability was assessed by the French version of the Affect Lability Scale. Bipolar patients with high affect lability were more likely to report suicidal ideation during follow-up, even after adjustment for age, study level, rapid cycling, current depression level, anxiety disorder, and lifetime history SA (OR = 2.47; 95% CI [1.15-5.30], P = 0.01). The risk of suicidal ideation increased with the level of affect lability. More specifically, the propensity to switch from neutral to elation affect, from anxious to depressive affect (or inversely), and from neutral to anger affect predicted suicidal ideation. Reducing affective lability could become a new therapeutic target of suicidal prevention in bipolar disorder. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Factors predicting the outcome of customised foot orthoses in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roorda Leo D

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Conservative management of foot problems in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA may consist of the prescription of customised foot orthoses. Indications for foot orthoses are not clear and the effectiveness of the intervention is highly variable among patients. Knowledge on which patients benefit the most from foot orthoses can help to select patients eligible for this type of intervention. The objective of the present study was to determine clinical and demographic factors that predict the outcome of customised foot orthoses on pain and disability in patients with RA. Methods A total of 135 RA patients who were supplied with customised foot orthoses were included in this prospective cohort study. Pain and disability were measured before and after the intervention period using a Numeric Rating Scale (NRS for foot pain, the Foot Function Index (FFI, the Western Ontario and McMasters Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC and a 10-meter walking test. The intervention period consisted of one or more appointments with the podiatrist during which the foot orthoses were customised. Swollen foot joint count, foot deformity scores, forefoot peak pressure, disease duration, age, gender, body mass index and baseline values of the outcome measures were selected as potential factors predicting outcome. Multivariate linear regression analyses were performed to determine factors associated with change in pain and disability (at P Results Disease duration was negatively associated with the change scores in NRS foot pain (P = 0.018, WOMAC pain (P = 0.001, FFI disability (P = 0.003 and WOMAC physical function (P = 0.002. Age was negatively associated with the change score in 10 meter walking time (P = 0.008. For all outcome measures baseline values were positively associated with the change scores (P Conclusions Shorter disease duration predicted greater improvements in self-reported foot pain and disability, and younger age predicted

  19. SU-F-R-48: Early Prediction of Pathological Response of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Using Perfusion CT:A Prospective Clinical Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nie, K; Yue, N; Jabbour, S; Kim, S [Rutgers-Cancer Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers-Robert Wood Johnson Medical, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Shi, L; Mao, T; Qian, L; Hu, X; Sun, X; Niu, T [Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To prospectively evaluate the tumor vascularity assessed by perfusion CT for prediction of chemo-radiation treatment (CRT) response in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Methods: Eighteen consecutive patients (61.9±8.8 years, from March–June 2015) diagnosed with LARC who underwent 6–8 weeks CRT followed by surgery were included. The pre-treatment perfusion CT was acquired after a 5s delay of contrast agent injection for 45s with 1s interval. A total of 7-cm craniocaudal range covered the tumor region with 3-mm slice thickness. The effective radiation dose is around 15mSv, which is about 1.5 the conventional abdomen/pelvis CT dose. The parametric map of blood flow (BF), blood volume (BV), mean transit time (MTT), permeability (PMB), and maximum intensity map (MIP) were obtained from commercial software (Syngo-CT 2011A, Siemens). An experienced radiation oncologist outlined the tumor based on the pre-operative MR and pathologic residual region, but was blinded with regards to pathological tumor stage. The perfusion parameters were compared to histopathological response quantified by tumor regression grade as good-responder (GR, TRG 0-1) vs. non-good responder (non-GR). Furthermore, the predictive value for pathological complete response (pCR) was also investigated. Results: Both BV (p=0.02) and MTT (P=0.02) was significantly higher and permeambility was lower (p=0.004) in the good responders. The BF was higher in GR group but not statistically significant. Regarding the discrimination of pCR vs non-pCR, the BF was higher in the pCR group (p=0.08) but none of those parameters showed statistically significant differences. Conclusion: BV and MTT can discriminate patients with a favorable response from those that fail to respond well, potentially selecting high-risk patients with resistant tumors that may benefit from an aggressive preoperative treatment approach. However, future studies with more patient data are needed to verify the prognostic value

  20. Prospect of Using Numerical Dynamo Model for Prediction of Geomagnetic Secular Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Weijia; Tangborn, Andrew

    2003-01-01

    Modeling of the Earth's core has reached a level of maturity to where the incorporation of observations into the simulations through data assimilation has become feasible. Data assimilation is a method by which observations of a system are combined with a model output (or forecast) to obtain a best guess of the state of the system, called the analysis. The analysis is then used as an initial condition for the next forecast. By doing assimilation, not only we shall be able to predict partially secular variation of the core field, we could also use observations to further our understanding of dynamical states in the Earth's core. One of the first steps in the development of an assimilation system is a comparison between the observations and the model solution. The highly turbulent nature of core dynamics, along with the absence of any regular external forcing and constraint (which occurs in atmospheric dynamics, for example) means that short time comparisons (approx. 1000 years) cannot be made between model and observations. In order to make sensible comparisons, a direct insertion assimilation method has been implemented. In this approach, magnetic field observations at the Earth's surface have been substituted into the numerical model, such that the ratio of the multiple components and the dipole component from observation is adjusted at the core-mantle boundary and extended to the interior of the core, while the total magnetic energy remains unchanged. This adjusted magnetic field is then used as the initial field for a new simulation. In this way, a time tugged simulation is created which can then be compared directly with observations. We present numerical solutions with and without data insertion and discuss their implications for the development of a more rigorous assimilation system.

  1. Linking the serotonin transporter gene, family environments, hippocampal volume and depression onset: A prospective imaging gene × environment analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Keriann; Olsson, Craig A; Youssef, George J; Whittle, Sarah; Simmons, Julian G; Yücel, Murat; Sheeber, Lisa B; Foley, Debra L; Allen, Nicholas B

    2015-11-01

    A single imaging gene-environment (IGxE) framework that is able to simultaneously model genetic, neurobiological, and environmental influences on psychopathology outcomes is needed to improve understanding of how complex interrelationships between allelic variation, differences in neuroanatomy or neuroactivity, and environmental experience affect risk for psychiatric disorder. In a longitudinal study of adolescent development we demonstrate the utility of such an IGxE framework by testing whether variation in parental behavior at age 12 altered the strength of an imaging genetics pathway, involving an indirect association between allelic variation in the serotonin transporter gene to variation in hippocampal volume and consequent onset of major depressive disorder by age 18. Results were consistent with the presence of an indirect effect of the serotonin transporter S-allele on depression onset via smaller left and right hippocampal volumes that was significant only in family environments involving either higher levels of parental aggression or lower levels of positive parenting. The previously reported finding of S-allele carriers' increased risk of depression in adverse environments may, therefore, be partly because of the effects of these environments on a neurobiological pathway from the serotonin transporter gene to depression onset that proceeds through variation in hippocampal volume.

  2. Prognostic value of intraventricular bleeding in spontaneous intraparenchymal cerebral hemorrhage of small volume: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortes Lima, Telmo Tiburcio; Prandini, Mirto Nelso; Gallo, Pasquale; Cavalheiro, Sérgio

    2012-04-01

    The literature is controversial on whether intraventricular bleeding has a negative impact on the prognosis of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. Nevertheless, an association between intraventricular bleeding and spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage volumes has been consistently reported. To evaluate the prognostic value of intraventricular bleeding in deep intraparenchymal hypertensive spontaneous hemorrhage with a bleeding volume bleeding was calculated by the LeRoux scale. Clinical data, including neurological complications, were collected daily during hospitalization. Neurological outcome was evaluated 30 days after the event by using the Glasgow outcome scale. Patients were assigned to 1 of 3 groups according to intraventricular bleeding: Control, no intraventricular bleeding; LR 1, intraventricular bleeding with LeRoux scale scores of 1 to 8; or LR 2, intraventricular bleeding with LeRoux scale scores >8. There were no significant differences among groups concerning age, mean blood pressure, and time from onset to brain CT scan. Patients with greater intraventricular bleeding presented lower initial Glasgow coma scale scores, increased ventricular index and width of temporal horns, increased number of clinical and neurological complications, and longer hospitalization. Furthermore, their relative risk for unfavorable clinical outcome was 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.25-2.49). Intraventricular bleeding with a LeRoux scale score >8 appears to have a negative effect on deep spontaneous intraparenchymal cerebral hemorrhage of small volume.

  3. A novel approach to predict the excess volume of hydrocarbon mixtures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Finkers, H. J.; Bosma, J. C.; Broekhuis, A. A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores whether principles obtained for the packing of solid macroscopic particles can be applied to the study of excess volumes of liquid mixtures. The approach is applied to mixtures of 'pure' hydrocarbons, i.e. containing only C- and H-atoms. In this new approach a set of equations wa

  4. An evaluation of volume-based morphometry for prediction of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Schmitter

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Voxel-based morphometry from conventional T1-weighted images has proved effective to quantify Alzheimer's disease (AD related brain atrophy and to enable fairly accurate automated classification of AD patients, mild cognitive impaired patients (MCI and elderly controls. Little is known, however, about the classification power of volume-based morphometry, where features of interest consist of a few brain structure volumes (e.g. hippocampi, lobes, ventricles as opposed to hundreds of thousands of voxel-wise gray matter concentrations. In this work, we experimentally evaluate two distinct volume-based morphometry algorithms (FreeSurfer and an in-house algorithm called MorphoBox for automatic disease classification on a standardized data set from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Results indicate that both algorithms achieve classification accuracy comparable to the conventional whole-brain voxel-based morphometry pipeline using SPM for AD vs elderly controls and MCI vs controls, and higher accuracy for classification of AD vs MCI and early vs late AD converters, thereby demonstrating the potential of volume-based morphometry to assist diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease.

  5. Preoperative Metabolic Syndrome Is Predictive of Significant Gastric Cancer Mortality after Gastrectomy: The Fujian Prospective Investigation of Cancer (FIESTA) Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Dan; Peng, Feng; Lin, Xiandong; Chen, Gang; Zhang, Hejun; Liang, Binying; Ji, Kaida; Lin, Jinxiu; Chen, Lin-Feng; Zheng, Xiongwei; Niu, Wenquan

    2017-02-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been shown to be associated with an increased risk of gastric cancer. However, the impact of MetS on gastric cancer mortality remains largely unknown. Here, we prospectively examined the prediction of preoperative MetS for gastric cancer mortality by analyzing a subset of data from the ongoing Fujian prospective investigation of cancer (FIESTA) study. This study was conducted among 3012 patients with gastric cancer who received radical gastrectomy between 2000 and 2010. The latest follow-up was completed in 2015. Blood/tissue specimens, demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics were collected at baseline. During 15-year follow-up, 1331 of 3012 patients died of gastric cancer. The median survival time (MST) of patients with MetS was 31.3months, which was significantly shorter than that of MetS-free patients (157.1months). The coexistence of MetS before surgery was associated with a 2.3-fold increased risk for gastric cancer mortality (P<0.001). The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were increased with invasion depth T1/T2 (HR=2.78, P<0.001), regional lymph node metastasis N0 (HR=2.65, P<0.001), positive distant metastasis (HR=2.53, P<0.001), TNM stage I/II (HR=3.00, P<0.001), intestinal type (HR=2.96, P<0.001), negative tumor embolus (HR=2.34, P<0.001), and tumor size ≤4.5cm (HR=2.49, P<0.001). Further survival tree analysis confirmed the top splitting role of TNM stage, followed by MetS or hyperglycemia with remarkable discrimination ability. In this large cohort study, preoperative MetS, especially hyperglycemia, was predictive of significant gastric cancer mortality in patients with radical gastrectomy, especially for early stage of gastric cancer. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Improved prediction of octanol-water partition coefficients from liquid-solute water solubilities and molar volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiou, C.T.; Schmedding, D.W.; Manes, M.

    2005-01-01

    A volume-fraction-based solvent-water partition model for dilute solutes, in which the partition coefficient shows a dependence on solute molar volume (V??), is adapted to predict the octanol-water partition coefficient (K ow) from the liquid or supercooled-liquid solute water solubility (Sw), or vice versa. The established correlation is tested for a wide range of industrial compounds and pesticides (e.g., halogenated aliphatic hydrocarbons, alkylbenzenes, halogenated benzenes, ethers, esters, PAHs, PCBs, organochlorines, organophosphates, carbamates, and amidesureas-triazines), which comprise a total of 215 test compounds spanning about 10 orders of magnitude in Sw and 8.5 orders of magnitude in Kow. Except for phenols and alcohols, which require special considerations of the Kow data, the correlation predicts the Kow within 0.1 log units for most compounds, much independent of the compound type or the magnitude in K ow. With reliable Sw and V data for compounds of interest, the correlation provides an effective means for either predicting the unavailable log Kow values or verifying the reliability of the reported log Kow data. ?? 2005 American Chemical Society.

  7. Clinical complications in pregnant women with sickle cell disease: prospective study of factors predicting maternal death or near miss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Santos Resende Cardoso

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To evaluate complications in pregnant women with sickle cell disease, especially those leading to maternal death or near miss (severe obstetric complications. METHODS: A prospective cohort of 104 pregnant women registered in the Blood Center of Belo Horizonte (Hemominas Foundation was followed up at high-risk prenatal units. They belonged to Group I (51 hemoglobin SS and three hemoglobin S/ß0-thalassemia or Group II (49 hemoglobin SC and one hemoglobin S/ß+-thalassemia. Both groups had similar median ages. Predictive factors for 'near miss' or maternal death with p-value = 0.25 in the univariate analysis were included in a multivariate logistic model (significance set for p-value = 0.05. RESULTS: Group I had more frequent episodes of vaso-occlusive crises, more transfusions in the antepartum and postpartum, and higher percentage of preterm deliveries than Group II. Infections and painful crises during the postpartum period were similar in both the groups. The mortality rate was 4.8%: three deaths in Group I and two in Group II. One-third of the women in both the groups experienced near miss. The most frequent event was pneumonia/acute chest syndrome. Alpha-thalassemia co-inheritance and ß-gene haplotypes were not associated with near miss or maternal death. In multivariate analysis predictors of near miss or death were parity above one and baseline red blood cell macrocytosis. In Group I, baseline hypoxemia (saturation < 94% was also predictive of near miss or death. CONCLUSION: One-third of pregnant women had near miss and 4.8% died. Both hemoglobin SS and SC pregnant women shared the same risk of death or of severe complications, especially pulmonary events.

  8. Circulating Tumor Necrosis Factor α Receptors Predict the Outcomes of Human IgA Nephropathy: A Prospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Jung Oh

    Full Text Available The circulating tumor necrosis factor receptors (TNFRs could predict the long-term renal outcome in diabetes, but the role of circulating TNFRs in other chronic kidney disease has not been reported. Here, we investigated the correlation between circulating TNFRs and renal histologic findings on kidney biopsy in IgA nephropathy (IgAN and assessed the notion that the circulating TNFRs could predict the clinical outcome. 347 consecutive biopsy-proven IgAN patients between 2006 and 2012 were prospectively enrolled. Concentrations of circulating TNFRs were measured using serum samples stored at the time of biopsy. The primary clinical endpoint was the decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; ≥ 30% decline compared to baseline. Mean eGFR decreased and proteinuria worsened proportionally as circulating TNFR1 and TNFR2 increased (P < 0.001. Tubulointerstitial lesions such as interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy were significantly more severe as concentrations of circulating TNFRs increased, regardless of eGFR levels. The risks of reaching the primary endpoint were significantly higher in the highest quartile of TNFRs compared with other quartiles by the Cox proportional hazards model (TNFR1; hazard ratio 7.48, P < 0.001, TNFR2; hazard ratio 2.51, P = 0.021. In stratified analysis according to initial renal function classified by the eGFR levels of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, TNFR1 and TNFR2 were significant predictors of renal progression in both subgroups. In conclusion, circulating TNFRs reflect the histology and clinical severity of IgAN. Moreover, elevated concentrations of circulating TNFRs at baseline are early biomarkers for subsequent renal progression in IgAN patients.

  9. Can Bcl-XL expression predict the radio sensitivity of Bilharzial-related squamous bladder carcinoma? a prospective comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamel Nermen A

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Local pelvic recurrence after radical cystectomy for muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma accounts for 75% of treatment failures even in organ confined tumors. Despite the proven value of lymphadenectomy, up to 60% of patients undergoing cystectomy do not have it. These factors are in favor of adjuvant radiotherapy reevaluation. objectives: to evaluate the effect of adjuvant radiotherapy on disease free survival in muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder and to test the predictability of radio-sensitivity using the anti apoptotic protein Bcl-XL. Methods The study prospectively included 71 patients, (47 males, 24 females with muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma of the bladder (Stage pT2a-T3N0-N3M0 who underwent radical cystectomy in Assiut university hospitals between January 2005 and December 2006. Thirty eight patients received adjuvant radiotherapy to the pelvis in the dose of 50Gy/25 fractions/5 weeks (Group 1, while 33 patients did not receive adjuvant radiotherapy (group 2. Immunohistochemical characterization for bcl-xL expression was done. Follow up was done every 3 months for 12 to 36 months with a mean of 16 ± 10 months. All data were analyzed using SPSS version 16. Three years cumulative disease free survival was calculated and adjusted to Bcl-XL expression and side effects of the treatment were recorded. Results The disease free cumulative survival was 48% for group 1 and 29% for group 2 (log rank p value 0.03. The multivariate predictors of tumor recurrence were the positive Bcl-XL expression (odd ratio 41.1, 95% CI 8.4 - 102.3, p Conclusions Adjuvant radiotherapy for muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder has potential effectiveness and minor side effects. Moreover, Bcl-XL expression is a valuable tool for predicting those who might not respond to this adjuvant treatment.

  10. Protocol for Evaluating the Cardio-Ankle Vascular Index to Predict Cardiovascular Events in Japan: A Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyoshi, Toru; Ito, Hiroshi; Horinaka, Shigeo; Shirai, Kohji; Higaki, Jitsuo; Orimio, Hajime

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) was developed in Japan and is a blood pressure-independent index of arterial stiffness from the origin of the aorta to the ankle. In recent years, it has been studied by many researchers worldwide, and it is strongly anticipated that it will play a role as a predictive factor for arteriosclerotic diseases. The objective of this study was to examine the benefits of using CAVI as a predictor of cardiovascular events in high-risk patients. Methods and Design This prospective multicenter study to evaluate the usefulness of the CAVI to predict cardiovascular events in Japan (CAVI-J) is a cohort study with central registration. Participants (n = 3,000) will be scheduled to enroll and data will be collected for up to 5 years from entry of participants into the study. To be eligible to participate in the CAVI-J study, individuals have to be aged between 40 and 74 years and have at least one of the following risk factors for arteriosclerosis: (1) type 2 diabetes mellitus; (2) high-risk hypertension; (3) metabolic syndrome; (4) chronic kidney disease (stage 3), or (5) history of coronary artery disease or noncardiogenic cerebral infarction. The primary endpoints of this study are cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and stroke. The secondary endpoints are composite cardiovascular events including all cause death, angina pectoris with revascularization, new incidence of peripheral artery disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm, aortic dissection, heart failure requiring hospitalization, and deterioration in renal function. The cutoff for CAVI against the incidence of cardiovascular events will be determined. PMID:28275590

  11. Neuropsychological and neuroimaging markers in prediction of cognitive impairment after ischemic stroke: a prospective follow-up study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrabian, Shima; Raycheva, Margarita; Petrova, Neli; Janyan, Armina; Petrova, Mariya; Traykov, Latchezar

    2015-01-01

    Background There are few longitudinal studies with controversial results examining delayed changes in cognition after ischemic stroke and predictive values of neuropsychological and neuroimaging markers. Objective The objectives of this study were to evaluate the delayed changes in cognition in poststroke patients and their relationship to the neuropsychological and neuroimaging markers measured during the acute poststroke phase. Methods Eighty-five first-ever stroke inpatients (mean age 65.6±5.6 years) without previous cognitive complaints were prospectively evaluated with a comprehensive neuropsychological battery at the 5th day and the 1st, 6th, and 12th months. A wide range of clinical, radiological, and neuropsychological variables were examined. Results Our results showed significantly poorer performance on mini–mental state examination, memory, attention/executive functions, and processing speed in patients with stroke in comparison with stroke-free cognitively intact controls. Multiple regression analysis revealed that hippocampal atrophy is the strongest predictor of delayed cognitive impairment. Secondary divided subgroups according to Isaacs Set Test (IST) score showed that patients with IST score ≤28 had different patterns of cognitive and neurological impairment after 1 year. Baseline impairments in attention/executive functions and memory were associated with development of dementia in poststroke patients. Conclusion Executive functioning deficit appears to have a predictive power for cognitive impairment progression. The study suggests that IST as a screening test has a potential to be a reliable and quick tool for poststroke cognitive impairment evaluation and delayed cognitive and neurological outcome. Hippocampal atrophy was the strongest predictor for cognitive impairment outcome, even in poststroke cognitive impairment. The findings may set the stage for better poststroke management. PMID:26527875

  12. Prediction of the volume flux of the thermal plume above a sitting person

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zukowska, Daria; Popiolek, Zbigniew J.; Melikov, Arsen Krikor

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a verification of a relatively simple method of volume flux calculation applied to the asymmetrical thermal plume generated by a sitting person in a condition of an upward piston flow. The method is based on a model of a thermal plume above a point heat source in an unbounded...... space. The plume volume flux, V, can be calculated based on the following equation: V = kv*Qexp(1/3)*(zt-zv)exp(5/3). In the equation zt is the distance from the measuring plane to the top of the heat source and Qc is the convective part of the heat loss. A value of the entrainment coefficient, kv...

  13. Automated digital volume measurement of melanoma metastases in sentinel nodes predicts disease recurrence and survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riber-Hansen, Rikke; Nyengaard, Jens R; Hamilton-Dutoit, Stephen J

    2011-01-01

    aim was to investigate whether digital image analysis can estimate TMV accurately in melanoma SLNs. Methods and results: TMV was measured in 147 SLNs from 95 patients both manually and by automated digital image analysis. The results were compared by Bland-Altman plots (numerical data) and kappa......Aims: Total metastatic volume (TMV) is an important prognostic factor in melanoma sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) that avoids both the interobserver variation and unidirectional upstaging seen when using semi-quantitative size estimates. However, it is somewhat laborious for routine application. Our...... statistics (categorical data). In addition, disease-free and melanoma-specific survivals were calculated. Mean metastatic volume per patient was 10.6 mm(3) (median 0.05 mm(3); range 0.0001-621.3 mm(3)) and 9.62 mm(3) (median 0.05 mm(3); range 0.00001-564.3 mm(3)) with manual and digital measurement...

  14. Review of methods for predicting in situ volume change movement of expansive soil over time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hana H. Adem

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The soil movement information over time is required for the design of foundations placed in expansive soils. This information is also helpful for the assessment of pre-wetting and controlled wetting mitigation alternatives for expansive soils. Several researchers during the past fifteen years have proposed different methods for the prediction of the soil movements over time. The available methods can be categorized into (i consolidation theory-based methods, (ii water content-based methods, and (iii suction-based methods. In this paper, a state-of-the-art of the prediction methods is succinctly summarized. The methods are critically reviewed in terms of their predictive capacity along with their strengths and limitations. The review highlights the need for prediction methods that are conceptually simple yet efficient for use in conventional engineering practice for different types of expansive soils.

  15. Review of methods for predicting in situ volume change movement of expansive soil over time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hana H. Adem; Sai K. Vanapalli

    2015-01-01

    The soil movement information over time is required for the design of foundations placed in expansive soils. This information is also helpful for the assessment of pre-wetting and controlled wetting mitigation alternatives for expansive soils. Several researchers during the past fifteen years have proposed different methods for the prediction of the soil movements over time. The available methods can be categorized into (i) consolidation theory-based methods, (ii) water content-based methods, and (iii) suction-based methods. In this paper, a state-of-the-art of the prediction methods is succinctly summarized. The methods are critically reviewed in terms of their predictive capacity along with their strengths and limitations. The review highlights the need for prediction methods that are conceptually simple yet efficient for use in conventional engineering practice for different types of expansive soils.

  16. Specificity in autobiographical memory narratives correlates with performance on the autobiographical memory test and prospectively predicts depressive symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, Jennifer A; Mineka, Susan; McAdams, Dan P

    2013-01-01

    Reduced autobiographical memory specificity (AMS) is an important cognitive marker in depression that is typically measured with the Autobiographical Memory Test (AMT; Williams & Broadbent, 1986). The AMT is widely used, but the over-reliance on a single methodology for assessing AMS is a limitation in the field. The current study investigated memory narratives as an alternative measure of AMS in an undergraduate student sample selected for being high or low on a measure of depressive symptoms (N=55). We employed a multi-method design to compare narrative- and AMT-based measures of AMS. Participants generated personally significant self-defining memory narratives, and also completed two versions of the AMT (with and without instructions to retrieve specific memories). Greater AMS in self-defining memory narratives correlated with greater AMS in performance on both versions of the AMT in the full sample, and the patterns of relationships between the different AMS measures were generally similar in low and high dysphoric participants. Furthermore, AMS in self-defining memory narratives was prospectively associated with depressive symptom levels. Specifically, greater AMS in self-defining memory narratives predicted fewer depressive symptoms at a 10-week follow-up over and above baseline symptom levels. Implications for future research and clinical applications are discussed.

  17. Prediction Value of CRIB-II in Outcome of Preterm and Low Birth Weight Infants: a Prospective Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Heidarzadeh

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: One of the most common methods of identifying mortality risk is the Clinical Risk Index for Babies scoring system (CRIB- II. The aim of this study was assessing the value of CRIB- II in predicting mortality risk in preterm and low birth weight infants in East Azerbaijan- Iran. Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study was carried out in 2013-2014 during 6 months in NICUs of Alzahra, Taleqani and Children hospitals of Tabriz-Iran. All infants ≤ 32 weeks’ gestational age or ≤ 1500gr birth weight were included in the study using consecutive method. After calculating CRIB- II score, the infants were followed up at 3 months of age and their outcome was determined. The data was analyzed using SPSS-13, t- test, receiver operating characteristics (ROC and area under curve (AUC and relative risk (RR. Results: Of total 215 infants, 64 infants (29.7% died in the hospital and one infant (0.4% died after discharging from the hospital. 150 (68.8% infants, were alive at 3 months age follow up. The mean of CRIB- II score in the group of dead infants was higher and statistically significant compared to the group of alive infants (P

  18. Predictive value of serum cystatin C for acute kidney injury in adults: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort trials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Zhenzhu; Pei, Xiaohua; Zhu, Bei; Yuan, Haichuan; Zhao, Weihong

    2017-01-01

    The role of serum cystatin C (Scys) for the detection of acute kidney injury (AKI) has not been fully discussed. This meta-analysis was aimed to investigate the overall diagnostic accuracy of Scys for AKI in adults, and further identify factors affecting its performance. Studies before Sept. 2016 were retrieved from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library. A total of 30 prospective cohort studies (involving 4247 adults from 15 countries, 982 patients occurring AKI) were included. The revised Quality Assessment for Studies of Diagnostic Accuracy (QUADAS-2) tools demonstrated no significant bias had influenced the methodological quality of the included studies. Scys showed a high predictive power for all-cause AKI, that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.89. The detailed assessment parameters, such as sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio and diagnostic odds ratio for Scys were 0.82, 0.82, 4.6, 0.22 and 21, respectively. Although Scys could be slightly influenced by the following factors: settings, AKI diagnostic criteria, ethnicity, determination method, age and gender, these factors above did not reach statistically significance. In conclusion, Scys could be a vital promising marker to screen out AKI. PMID:28112204

  19. Mastectomy Weight and Tissue Expander Volume Predict Necrosis and Increased Costs Associated with Breast Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalanis, Georgia C.; Nag, Shayoni; Georgek, Jakob R.; Cooney, Carisa M.; Manahan, Michele A.; Rosson, Gedge D.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Impaired vascular perfusion in tissue expander (TE) breast reconstruction leads to mastectomy skin necrosis. We investigated factors and costs associated with skin necrosis in postmastectomy breast reconstruction. Methods: Retrospective review of 169 women with immediate TE placement following mastectomy between May 1, 2009 and May 31, 2013 was performed. Patient demographics, comorbidities, intraoperative, and postoperative outcomes were collected. Logistic regression analysis on individual variables was performed to determine the effects of tissue expander fill volume and mastectomy specimen weight on skin necrosis. Billing data was obtained to determine the financial burden associated with necrosis. Results: This study included 253 breast reconstructions with immediate TE placement from 169 women. Skin necrosis occurred in 20 flaps for 15 patients (8.9%). Patients with hypertension had 8 times higher odds of skin necrosis [odd ratio (OR), 8.10, P 300 cm3 had 10 times higher odds of skin necrosis (OR, 10.66, P =0.010). Volumes >400 cm3 had 15 times higher odds of skin necrosis (OR, 15.56, P = 0.002). Mastectomy specimen weight was correlated with skin necrosis. Specimens >500 g had 10 times higher odds of necrosis and specimens >1000 g had 18 times higher odds of necrosis (OR, 10.03 and OR, 18.43; P =0.003 and P Mastectomy skin necrosis was associated with a 50% increased inpatient charge. Conclusion: Mastectomy flap necrosis is associated with HTN, larger TE volumes and mastectomy specimen weights, resulting in increased inpatient charges. Conservative TE volumes should be considered for patients with hypertension and larger mastectomy specimens. PMID:26301139

  20. Fractal Prediction of Grouting Volume for Treating Karst Caverns along a Shield Tunneling Alignment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Chieh Cheng

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Karst geology is common in China, and buried karst formations are widely distributed in Guangdong province. In the process of shield tunneling, the abundant water resources present in karst caverns could lead to the potential for high water ingress, and a subsequent in situ stress change-induced stratum collapse. The development and distribution of karst caverns should therefore be identified and investigated prior to shield tunnel construction. Grouting is an efficient measure to stabilize karst caverns. The total volume of karst caverns along the shield tunneling alignment, and its relationship with the required volume of grouts, should be evaluated in the preliminary design phase. Conventionally, the total volume of karst caverns is empirically estimated based on limited geological drilling hole data; however, accurate results are rarely obtained. This study investigates the hydrogeology and engineering geology of Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong province, and determines the fractal characteristics of the karst caverns along the tunnel section of Guangzhou metro line no. 9. The karst grouting coefficients (VR were found to vary from 0.11 in the case of inadequate drilling holes to 1.1 in the case where adequate drilling holes are provided. A grouting design guideline was furthermore developed in this study for future projects in karst areas.

  1. Hemodynamic response of modified fluid gelatin compared with lactated ringer's solution for volume expansion in emergency resuscitation of hypovolemic shock patients: preliminary report of a prospective, randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, J J; Huang, M S; Tang, G J; Kao, W F; Shih, H C; Su, C H; Lee, C H

    2001-05-01

    The objective of this study was to compare the cardiac and hemodynamic responses to a rapid infusion of 1000 ml of modified fluid gelatin (group A) or 1000 ml of lactated Ringer's solution (group B) in emergency room patients suffering from shock. This prospective, randomized, open, noncrossover study was performed at a medical center university hospital in a surgical resuscitation room in the emergency department. The subjects were 34 patients with either hypovolemic or neurogenic shock who were admitted to the emergency room. A resuscitation protocol according to Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) with an additional central venous line or Swan-Ganz catheters for hemodynamic monitoring was used. Physical parameters and hemodynamic variables were measured at baseline and 15 minutes, 30 minutes, and 1 hour after the infusion of each fluid. In both groups the mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), systolic and diastolic pressure, central venous pressure (CVP), and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP) increased significantly. The CVP and PAOP increased significantly more in the modified fluid gelatin resuscitation group. In patients with traumatic or neurogenic shock due to acute volume deficiency, there was significantly better hemodynamic improvement, judged by CVP and PAOP measurements using the modified fluid gelatin for volume replacement than with lactated Ringer's solution during the first hour of resuscitation.

  2. Prognostic significance and predictive performance of volume-based parameters of F-18 FDG PET/CT in squamous cell head and neck cancers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sait Sager

    2014-01-01

    Conclusion: Metabolic tumor volume (MTV represents tumor burden, which shows F18-Fluorodeoxyglucose uptake and has a potential value in predicting short-term outcome and disease-free survival in patients with head and neck cancer.

  3. Is the Predictability of New-Onset Postpartum Depression Better During Pregnancy or in the Early Postpartum Period? A Prospective Study in Croatian Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakić Radoš, Sandra; Herman, Radoslav; Tadinac, Meri

    2016-01-01

    The researchers' aim was to examine whether it was better to predict new-onset postpartum depression (PPD) during pregnancy or immediately after childbirth. A prospective study conducted in Croatia followed women (N = 272) from the third trimester of pregnancy through the early postpartum period (within the first 3 postpartum days), to 6 weeks postpartum. Questionnaires on depression, anxiety, stress, coping, self-esteem, and social support were administered. Through regression analyses we showed that PPD symptoms could be equally predicted by variables from pregnancy (30.3%) and the early postpartum period (34.0%), with a small advantage of PPD prediction in the early postpartum period.

  4. Predictive value of ischemic lesion volume assessed with magnetic resonance imaging for neurological deficits and functional outcome poststroke: A critical review of the literature.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schiemanck, S.K.; Kwakkel, G.; Post, M.W.; Prevo, A.J.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Ischemic lesion volume is assumed to be an important predictor of poststroke neurological deficits and functional outcome. This critical review examines the methodological quality of MRI studies and the predictive value of hemispheric infarct volume for neurological deficits (at body

  5. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E. [Allison Engine Co., Indianapolis, IN (United States)

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  6. Predicting growth and curve progression in the individual patient with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: design of a prospective longitudinal cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veldhuizen Albert G

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scoliosis is present in 3-5% of the children in the adolescent age group, with a higher incidence in females. Treatment of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is mainly dependent on the progression of the scoliotic curve. There is a close relationship between curve progression and rapid (spinal growth of the patient during puberty. However, until present time no conclusive method was found for predicting the timing and magnitude of the pubertal growth spurt in total body height, or the curve progression of the idiopathic scoliosis. The goal of this study is to determine the predictive value of several maturity indicators that reflect growth or remaining growth potential, in order to predict timing of the peak growth velocity of total body height in the individual patient with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Furthermore, different parameters are evaluated for their correlation with curve progression in the individual scoliosis patient. Methods/design This prospective, longitudinal cohort study will be incorporated in the usual care of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. All new patients between 8 and 17 years with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (Cobb angle >10 degrees visiting the outpatient clinic of the University Medical Center Groningen are included in this study. Follow up will take place every 6 months. The present study will use a new ultra-low dose X-ray system which can make total body X-rays. Several maturity indicators are evaluated like different body length dimensions, secondary sexual characteristics, skeletal age in hand and wrist, skeletal age in the elbow, the Risser sign, the status of the triradiate cartilage, and EMG ratios of the paraspinal muscle activity. Correlations of all dimensions will be calculated in relationship to the timing of the pubertal growth spurt, and to the progression of the scoliotic curve. An algorithm will be made for the optimal treatment strategy in the individual patient

  7. The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean. Volume 1: Strategic summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-05-15

    The proposed COPS (Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems) program is concerned with combining numerical models with observations (through data assimilation) to improve our predictive knowledge of the coastal ocean. It is oriented toward applied research and development and depends upon the continued pursuit of basic research in programs like COOP (Coastal Ocean Processes); i.e., to a significant degree it is involved with ``technology transfer`` from basic knowledge to operational and management applications. This predictive knowledge is intended to address a variety of societal problems: (1) ship routing, (2) trajectories for search and rescue operations, (3) oil spill trajectory simulations, (4) pollution assessments, (5) fisheries management guidance, (6) simulation of the coastal ocean`s response to climate variability, (7) calculation of sediment transport, (8) calculation of forces on structures, and so forth. The initial concern is with physical models and observations in order to provide a capability for the estimation of physical forces and transports in the coastal ocean. For all these applications, there are common needs for physical field estimates: waves, tides, currents, temperature, and salinity, including mixed layers, thermoclines, fronts, jets, etc. However, the intent is to work with biologists, chemists, and geologists in developing integrated multidisciplinary prediction systems as it becomes feasible to do so. From another perspective, by combining observations with models through data assimilation, a modern approach to monitoring is provided through whole-field estimation.

  8. MR Prediction of Liver Function and Pathology Using Gd-EOB-DTPA: Effect of Liver Volume Consideration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Shimamoto

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To evaluate whether the diagnostic performance of Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI in evaluating liver function and pathology is improved by considering liver volume (LV. Methods. This retrospective study included 104 patients who underwent Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI before liver surgery. For each patient, using the precontrast and hepatobiliary phase images, we calculated the increase rate of the liver-to-spleen signal intensity ratio (LSR, that is, the “ΔLSR,” and the increase rate of the liver-to-muscle signal intensity ratio (LMR, that is, the “ΔLMR.” ΔLSR × LV and ΔLMR × LV were also calculated. The correlation of each MR parameter with liver function data or liver pathology was assessed. The correlation coefficients were compared between ΔLSR (ΔLMR and ΔLSR (ΔLMR × LV. Results. The correlation coefficient between ΔLSR (ΔLMR × LV and cholinesterase was significantly higher than that between ΔLSR (ΔLMR and cholinesterase. The correlation coefficient between ΔLSR (ΔLMR × LV and the degree of fibrosis or necroinflammatory activity was significantly lower than that between ΔLSR (ΔLMR and the degree of fibrosis or necroinflammatory activity. Conclusion. The inclusion of liver volume may improve Gd-EOB-DTPA-based predictions of liver function, but not in predictions of liver pathology.

  9. Preparation of cell blocks for lung cancer diagnosis and prediction: protocol and experience of a high-volume center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossakowski, Claudia A; Morresi-Hauf, Alicia; Schnabel, Philipp A; Eberhardt, Ralf; Herth, Felix J F; Warth, Arne

    2014-01-01

    Minimally invasive diagnostic techniques are increasingly being used to obtain specimens for pathological diagnosis and prediction. Referring to lung cancer, both endobronchial and endoesophageal ultrasound are used worldwide as diagnostic routine methods. Consequently, an increasing number of pathological samples are cytological and fewer are histological. On the other hand, the requirements for specific and sensitive tumor subtyping complemented by predictive analyses are steadily increasing and are an essential basis for evidence-based treatment decisions. In this article we focus on the cell block method as a helpful tool for diagnostic and predictive analyses in lung cancer and point out its advantages and disadvantages in comparison to conventional cytological and biopsy specimens. Furthermore, we retrospectively analyze the diagnostic results of the cell block method in a high-volume center over 5 years. The main advantages of cell blocks are the availability of established and validated protocols, archiving and the opportunity to have serial sections from the same specimens to provide or repeat molecular analyses. Actually, in case of tumor progression, even additional biomarkers can be tested using the original cell block when re-biopsies are not feasible. The cell block method should be considered as a reliable, complimentary approach to conventional cytological or biopsy procedures, which is helpful to fulfill the increasing requirements of high-quality diagnostics and prediction.

  10. Low Self-Esteem during Adolescence Predicts Poor Health, Criminal Behavior, and Limited Economic Prospects during Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trzesniewski, Kali H.; Donnellan, M. Brent; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Robins, Richard W.; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

    2006-01-01

    Using prospective data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study birth cohort, the authors found that adolescents with low self-esteem had poorer mental and physical health, worse economic prospects, and higher levels of criminal behavior during adulthood, compared with adolescents with high self-esteem. The long-term…

  11. Low Self-Esteem during Adolescence Predicts Poor Health, Criminal Behavior, and Limited Economic Prospects during Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trzesniewski, Kali H.; Donnellan, M. Brent; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Robins, Richard W.; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

    2006-01-01

    Using prospective data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study birth cohort, the authors found that adolescents with low self-esteem had poorer mental and physical health, worse economic prospects, and higher levels of criminal behavior during adulthood, compared with adolescents with high self-esteem. The long-term…

  12. The predictive value of treatment response using FDG PET performed on day 21 of chemoradiotherapy in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. A prospective, multicentre study (RTEP3)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palie, Odre; Vera, Pierre [Henri Becquerel Cancer Center and Rouen University Hospital, and QuantIF - LITIS (EA 4108), University of Rouen, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Rouen (France); Michel, Pierre; Di Fiore, Frederic [Rouen University Hospital and University of Rouen, Digestive Oncology Unit, Hepatogastroenterology Department, Rouen (France); Menard, Jean-Francois [Rouen University Hospital and University of Rouen, Department of Biostatistic, Rouen (France); Rousseau, Caroline; Bridji, Boumediene [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Renee Gauducheau Cancer Center, Nantes (France); Rio, Emmanuel [Department of Radiotherapy, Renee Gauducheau Cancer Center, Nantes (France); Benyoucef, Ahmed [Department of Radiotherapy, Henri Becquerel Cancer Center, Rouen (France); Meyer, Marc-Etienne [Amiens University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Amiens (France); Jalali, Khadija [Amiens University Hospital, Department of Radiotherapy, Amiens (France); Bardet, Stephane [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Francois Baclesse Cancer Center, Caen (France); M' Vondo, Che Mabubu [Department of radiotherapy, Francois Baclesse Cancer Center, Caen (France); Olivier, Pierre [Brabois University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nancy (France); Faure, Guillaume [Department of Radiotherapy, Centre prive de Radiotherapie de Metz, Metz (France); Itti, Emmanuel [Henri Mondor University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Creteil (France); Diana, Christian [Henri Mondor University Hospital, Department of Radiotherapy, Creteil (France); Houzard, Claire [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France); Mornex, Francoise [Department of Radiotherapy, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France)

    2013-09-15

    FDG PET has been suggested to have predictive value in the prognosis of oesophageal carcinoma. However, the retrospective studies reported in the literature have shown discordant results. Additionally, only four studies have evaluated FDG PET during chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with different histological lesions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive value of FDG PET performed early during CRT (on day 21) in a population of patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Included in this prospective study were 57 patients with a histological diagnosis of squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus. Of these 57 patients, 48 (84 %) were evaluated (aged 63 {+-} 11 years; 44 men, 4 women). Each patient underwent FDG PET (4.5 MBq/kg) before CRT, according to the Herskovic protocol (t0; PET{sub 1}) and on day 21 {+-} 3 from the start of CRT (d21; PET{sub 2}). The response assessment included a clinical examination, CT scan or FDG PET and histological analysis 3 months and 1 year after PET{sub 1}. The patients were classified as showing a complete response (CR) or a noncomplete response. A quantitative analysis was carried out for PET{sub 1} and PET{sub 2} using the following parameters: SUVmax, SUVmean (with SUVmean{sub 40} as the 3-D volume at an SUVmax threshold of 40 % and SUVmean{sub p} as that defined by a physician), tumour volume (TV, with TV{sub 40} defined as the TV at 40 % of SUVmax, and TV{sub p} as that defined by a physician); and the total lesion glycolysis (TLG, SUVmean x TV, with TLG{sub 40} defined as the TLG at 40 % of SUVmax, and TLG{sub p} as that defined by a physician). The differences in responses at 3 months and 1 year between PET{sub 1} (t0) and PET{sub 2} (d21) were assessed in terms of variations in SUV, TV and TLG using a repeated measures of variance (ANOVA). SUVmax, SUVmean and TLG decreased significantly between PET{sub 1} (t0) and PET{sub 2} (d21; p < 0.0001). The TV significantly decreased only when assessed

  13. Use of pretreatment metabolic tumour volumes to predict the outcome of pharyngeal cancer treated by definitive radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, Chia-Hung [China Medical University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine and PET Center, Taichung (China); China Medical University, Institute of Clinical Medicine Science and School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taichung (China); China Medical University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine and PET center, Taichung (China); Lin, Shih-Chieh; Wang, Yao-Ching [China Medical University Hospital, Department of Radiation Oncology, Taichung (China); Hsieh, Te-Chun [China Medical University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine and PET Center, Taichung (China); Yen, Kuo-Yang [China Medical University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine and PET Center, Taichung (China); China Medical University, Department of Biomedical Imaging and Radiological Science, Taichung (China); Yang, Shih-Neng [China Medical University Hospital, Department of Radiation Oncology, Taichung (China); China Medical University, Department of Biomedical Imaging and Radiological Science, Taichung (China); Liang, Ji-An [China Medical University Hospital, Department of Radiation Oncology, Taichung (China); China Medical University, Institute of Clinical Medicine Science and School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taichung (China); Hua, Chun-Hung [China Medical University Hospital, Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Taichung (China); Chen, Shang-Wen [China Medical University Hospital, Department of Radiation Oncology, Taichung (China); China Medical University, Institute of Clinical Medicine Science and School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taichung (China); Taipei Medical University, Institute of Clinical Medicine Science and School of Medicine, Taipei (China)

    2012-08-15

    The aim of the study was to investigate the predictive role of pretreatment metabolic volume (MTV) in pharyngeal cancer (PC) patients treated with definitive (chemo) radiotherapy. This retrospective analysis enrolled 64 patients with PC treated with (chemo) radiotherapy. All patients received pretreatment fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/CT. Four PET segmentation methods were used, namely applying an isocontour at a standardized uptake value (SUV) of either 2.5 or 3.0 (MTV2.5 and MTV3.0) or using fixed thresholds of either 40 or 50 % (MTV40 %, MTV50 %) of the maximum intratumoural FDG activity. Disease-free survival (DFS) and primary relapse-free survival (PRFS) were examined according to cutoffs of the median values for each MTV and the gross tumour volume (GTVp). Independent prognosticators were identified by Cox regression analysis. With a median follow-up of 24 months, 19 patients died, and 26 patients experienced tumour relapse at primary sites. Multivariate analysis of the DFS showed that MTV2.5 > 13.6 ml was the only predictor of relapse [p = 0.011, hazard ratio = 2.69, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.25-5.76]. The independent predictor for PRFS was MTV2.5 > 13.6 ml (p = 0.003, hazard ratio = 3.76, 95 % CI 1.57-8.92), whereas GTVp > 15.5 ml had a marginal impact on PRFS (p = 0.06, hazard ratio = 3.54, 95 % CI 0.97-11.85). Patients having tumours with MTV2.5 > 13.6 ml had a significantly inferior 2-year PRFS compared with patients who had lower MTV2.5 tumours (39 vs 72 %, respectively, p = 0.001). For PC patients treated with definitive (chemo)radiotherapy, pretreatment MTV2.5 volume achieved the best predictive value for primary recurrence, and the same value was also a prognosticator for DFS. (orig.)

  14. Prediction of distribution volume of vancomycin in critically ill patients using extravascular lung water and pulmonary vascular permeability indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imaura, Masaharu; Yokoyama, Haruko; Kohyama, Tomoki; Nagafuchi, Hiroyuki; Kohata, Yuji; Takahashi, Hiroyuki; Yamada, Yasuhiko

    2012-11-01

    Alterations in distribution volume affect the concentrations of hydrophilic drugs in plasma and tissues at the time of initial therapy. When the distribution volume of hydrophilic antimicrobials is increased in critically ill patients with a serious infection, antimicrobial concentrations are reduced, which may adversely affect the efficacy of antimicrobial therapy. A transpulmonary thermodilution technique system (PiCCO) enables measurements of pulmonary vascular permeability index (PVPI) and extravascular lung water index (EVLWI), which are related to pulmonary edema and pulmonary vascular permeability, respectively. In addition, those indices may also be related to the distribution volume of hydrophilic antimicrobials. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships of PVPI and EVLWI with the distribution volume of vancomycin (Vss), as well as to establish a method for estimating Vss for planning an appropriate initial dose for individual patients. Seven patients were administered vancomycin intravenously and underwent extended hemodynamic monitoring with the PiCCO system in the intensive care unit (ICU) from April 2009 to March 2011. Vss was calculated using the Bayesian method, and the relationships of PVPI and EVLWI with Vss were investigated. The relationship between Vss/actual body weight (ABW) and median EVLWI on days when blood levels were measured was significant (r = 0.900, p = 0.0057), whereas the relationship between Vss/ABW and PVPI was not significant (r = 0.649, p = 0.1112). EVLWI determined by the PiCCO system is useful to predict Vss and should lead to more effective vancomycin therapy for critically ill patients at the initial stage.

  15. Sepsis prediction in critically ill patients by platelet activation markers on ICU admission: a prospective pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layios, Nathalie; Delierneux, Céline; Hego, Alexandre; Huart, Justine; Gosset, Christian; Lecut, Christelle; Maes, Nathalie; Geurts, Pierre; Joly, Arnaud; Lancellotti, Patrizio; Albert, Adelin; Damas, Pierre; Gothot, André; Oury, Cécile

    2017-12-01

    Platelets have been involved in both immune surveillance and host defense against severe infection. To date, whether platelet phenotype or other hemostasis components could be associated with predisposition to sepsis in critical illness remains unknown. The aim of this work was to identify platelet markers that could predict sepsis occurrence in critically ill injured patients. This single-center, prospective, observational, 7-month study was based on a cohort of 99 non-infected adult patients admitted to ICUs for elective cardiac surgery, trauma, acute brain injury, and post-operative prolonged ventilation and followed up during ICU stay. Clinical characteristics and severity score (SOFA) were recorded on admission. Platelet activation markers, including fibrinogen binding to platelets, platelet membrane P-selectin expression, plasma soluble CD40L, and platelet-leukocytes aggregates were assayed by flow cytometry at admission and 48 h later, and then at the time of sepsis diagnosis (Sepsis-3 criteria) and 7 days later for sepsis patients. Hospitalization data and outcomes were also recorded. Of the 99 patients, 19 developed sepsis after a median time of 5 days. These patients had a higher SOFA score at admission; levels of fibrinogen binding to platelets (platelet-Fg) and of D-dimers were also significantly increased compared to the other patients. Levels 48 h after ICU admission no longer differed between the two patient groups. Platelet-Fg % was an independent predictor of sepsis (P = 0.0031). By ROC curve analysis, cutoff point for Platelet-Fg (AUC = 0.75) was 50%. In patients with a SOFA cutoff of 8, the risk of sepsis reached 87% when Platelet-Fg levels were above 50%. Patients with sepsis had longer ICU and hospital stays and higher death rate. Platelet-bound fibrinogen levels assayed by flow cytometry within 24 h of ICU admission help identifying critically ill patients at risk of developing sepsis.

  16. Diabetes Risk Factors, Diabetes Risk Algorithms, and the Prediction of Future Frailty: The Whitehall II Prospective Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouillon, Kim; Kivimäki, Mika; Hamer, Mark; Shipley, Martin J.; Akbaraly, Tasnime N.; Tabak, Adam; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Batty, G. David

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine whether established diabetes risk factors and diabetes risk algorithms are associated with future frailty. Design Prospective cohort study. Risk algorithms at baseline (1997–1999) were the Framingham Offspring, Cambridge, and Finnish diabetes risk scores. Setting Civil service departments in London, United Kingdom. Participants There were 2707 participants (72% men) aged 45 to 69 years at baseline assessment and free of diabetes. Measurements Risk factors (age, sex, family history of diabetes, body mass index, waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive and corticosteroid treatments, history of high blood glucose, smoking status, physical activity, consumption of fruits and vegetables, fasting glucose, HDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides) were used to construct the risk algorithms. Frailty, assessed during a resurvey in 2007–2009, was denoted by the presence of 3 or more of the following indicators: self-reported exhaustion, low physical activity, slow walking speed, low grip strength, and weight loss; “prefrailty” was defined as having 2 or fewer of these indicators. Results After a mean follow-up of 10.5 years, 2.8% of the sample was classified as frail and 37.5% as prefrail. Increased age, being female, stopping smoking, low physical activity, and not having a daily consumption of fruits and vegetables were each associated with frailty or prefrailty. The Cambridge and Finnish diabetes risk scores were associated with frailty/prefrailty with odds ratios per 1 SD increase (disadvantage) in score of 1.18 (95% confidence interval: 1.09–1.27) and 1.27 (1.17–1.37), respectively. Conclusion Selected diabetes risk factors and risk scores are associated with subsequent frailty. Risk scores may have utility for frailty prediction in clinical practice. PMID:24103860

  17. Parameter Identification for a New Circuit Model Aimed to Predict Body Water Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GHEORGHE, A.-G.

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Intracellular and extracellular water volumes in the human body have been computed using a sequence of models starting with a linear first order RC circuit (Cole model and finishing with the De Lorenzo model. This last model employs a fractional order impedance whose parameters are identified using the frequency characteristics of the impedance module and phase, the latter being not unique. While the Cole model has a two octaves frequency validity range, the De Lorenzo model can be used for three decades. A new linear RC model, valid for a three decades frequency range, is proposed. This circuit can be viewed as an extension of the Cole model for a larger frequency interval, unlike similar models proposed by the same authors.

  18. Prediction of the Soil Water Characteristic from Soil Particle Volume Fractions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naveed, Muhammad; Møldrup, Per; Tuller, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Modelling water distribution and flow in partially saturated soils requires knowledge of the soil-water characteristic (SWC). However, measurement of the SWC is challenging and time-consuming, and in some cases not feasible. This study introduces two predictive models (Xw-model and Xw......*-model) for the SWC, derived from readily available soil properties such as texture and bulk density. A total of 46 soils from different horizons at 15 locations across Denmark were used for models evaluation. The Xw-model predicts the volumetric water content as a function of volumetric fines content (organic matter...... (organic matter, clay, silt, fine and coarse sand), variably included in the model depending on the pF value. The volumetric content of a particular soil particle size fraction was included in the model if it was assumed to contribute to the pore size fraction still occupied with water at the given p...

  19. Review of methods for predicting in situ volume change movement of expansive soil over time

    OpenAIRE

    Hana H. Adem; Sai K. Vanapalli

    2015-01-01

    The soil movement information over time is required for the design of foundations placed in expansive soils. This information is also helpful for the assessment of pre-wetting and controlled wetting mitigation alternatives for expansive soils. Several researchers during the past fifteen years have proposed different methods for the prediction of the soil movements over time. The available methods can be categorized into (i) consolidation theory-based methods, (ii) water content-based methods,...

  20. 支气管镜肺减容现状和展望%Current status and prospects of lung volume reduction surgery

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙沁莹; 林冰

    2013-01-01

    The application of lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) in clinical practice is limited by high postoperative morbidity and stringent selection criteria. Bronchoscopic lung-volume reduction has recently been explored as safer alternatives to LVRS for treating advanced emphysema. The currently available data on efficacy of bronchoscopic lung volume reduction are not conclusive and subjective benefit in dyspnoea scores,6MWT distance (6MWD) ,quality of life (SCRQ) are more frequent findings than improvements on spirometry or exercise tolerance. Safety data are more promising with rare procedure-related mortality, short hospital length of stay and few complications such as COPD exacerbation, peumonia, pneumo-thorax. The field of bronrhoscopic lung volume reduction continues to evolve as ongoing prospective randomized trials build on earlier feasibility data to clarify the true efficacy of such techniques.%外科肺减容手术治疗重度肺气肿术后病死率较高,适应证少,不适宜临床推广.支气管镜肺减容术通过支气管镜下的技术操作,简便、安全,有望替代外科肺减容术治疗重度肺气肿.目前研究比较有效的方法有支气管腔内单向阀、生物胶、蒸汽消融和肺减容线圈.支气管镜肺减容术治疗重度肺气肿,可以明显改善气促指数、6 min步行距离及生活质量(SGRQ)评分等主观指标,但对于评价该项技术有效性的客观指标如肺功能指标及运动耐力仅有部分改善.采用该项技术安全性好,住院时间短,极少出现危及生命的严重并发症,可能出现的并发症包括慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重、肺炎和气胸.下一步需开展前瞻性的随机对照研究,证实支气管镜肺减容术的确切疗效.

  1. Neuropsychological and neuroimaging markers in prediction of cognitive impairment after ischemic stroke: a prospective follow-up study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrabian S

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Shima Mehrabian,1 Margarita Raycheva,1 Neli Petrova,2 Armina Janyan,3,4 Mariya Petrova,1 Latchezar Traykov1 1Clinic of Neurology, University Hospital Alexandrovska, Sofia, 2Clinic of Neurology, MHAT “Ruse”, Ruse, 3Research Center for Cognitive Science, Department of Cognitive Science and Psychology, New Bulgarian University, Sofia, Bulgaria; 4Laboratory for Cognitive Studies in Language, National Research Tomsk State University, Tomsk, Russia Background: There are few longitudinal studies with controversial results examining delayed changes in cognition after ischemic stroke and predictive values of neuropsychological and neuroimaging markers. Objective: The objectives of this study were to evaluate the delayed changes in cognition in poststroke patients and their relationship to the neuropsychological and neuroimaging markers measured during the acute poststroke phase. Methods: Eighty-five first-ever stroke inpatients (mean age 65.6±5.6 years without previous cognitive complaints were prospectively evaluated with a comprehensive neuropsychological battery at the 5th day and the 1st, 6th, and 12th months. A wide range of clinical, radiological, and neuropsychological variables were examined. Results: Our results showed significantly poorer performance on mini–mental state examination, memory, attention/executive functions, and processing speed in patients with stroke in comparison with stroke-free cognitively intact controls. Multiple regression analysis revealed that hippocampal atrophy is the strongest predictor of delayed cognitive impairment. Secondary divided subgroups according to Isaacs Set Test (IST score showed that patients with IST score ≤28 had different patterns of cognitive and neurological impairment after 1 year. Baseline impairments in attention/executive functions and memory were associated with development of dementia in poststroke patients. Conclusion: Executive functioning deficit appears to have a predictive power

  2. Household tobacco smoke and admission weight predict severe bronchiolitis in infants independent of deprivation: prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malcolm G Semple

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To examine demographic, environmental and clinical factors associated with severe bronchiolitis in infants admitted to hospital and quantify the independent effects of these factors. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Alder Hey Children's Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 378 infants admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis, of whom 299 (79% were antigen positive to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV. OUTCOME: Severity of disease during admission, defined as "no need for supplemental oxygen" (reference group, "any need for supplemental oxygen" and "any need for mechanical ventilation". RESULTS: Univariate analysis found male sex (p = 0.035 and tobacco smoking by a household member (p<0.001 were associated with need for both supplemental oxygen and mechanical ventilation. Premature birth, low gestation, low birth weight, low admission weight and low corrected age on admission were also associated with need for mechanical ventilation (all p≤0.002. Deprivation scores (IMD 2004 were significantly higher in households where a member smoked compared to non-smoking households (p<0.001. The odds of smoking predicted by deprivation were 7 times higher (95%CI (3.59, 14.03, when comparing the least and most deprived quintiles of the study population. Family history of atopic disease and deprivation score were not associated with severe disease. Multivariate multinomial logistic regression which initially included all covariates, found household tobacco smoking (adjusted OR = 2.45, 95%CI (1.60, 3.74 predicted need for oxygen supplementation. Household tobacco smoking (adjusted OR = 5.49, (2.78, 10.83 and weight (kg on admission (adjusted OR = 0.51, (0.40, 0.65 were both significant predictors in the final model for mechanical ventilation. The same associations and similar size of effects were found when only children with proven RSV infection were included in analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Low

  3. Clinical assessment of peripheral perfusion to predict postoperative complications after major abdominal surgery early: a prospective observational study in adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Altered peripheral perfusion is strongly associated with poor outcome in critically ill patients. We wanted to determine whether repeated assessments of peripheral perfusion during the days following surgery could help to early identify patients that are more likely to develop postoperative complications. Methods Haemodynamic measurements and peripheral perfusion parameters were collected one day prior to surgery, directly after surgery (D0) and on the first (D1), second (D2) and third (D3) postoperative days. Peripheral perfusion assessment consisted of capillary refill time (CRT), peripheral perfusion index (PPI) and forearm-to-fingertip skin temperature gradient (Tskin-diff). Generalized linear mixed models were used to predict severe complications within ten days after surgery based on Clavien-Dindo classification. Results We prospectively followed 137 consecutive patients, from among whom 111 were included in the analysis. Severe complications were observed in 19 patients (17.0%). Postoperatively, peripheral perfusion parameters were significantly altered in patients who subsequently developed severe complications compared to those who did not, and these parameters persisted over time. CRT was altered at D0, and PPI and Tskin-diff were altered on D1 and D2, respectively. Among the different peripheral perfusion parameters, the diagnostic accuracy in predicting severe postoperative complications was highest for CRT on D2 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.83 to 0.92)) with a sensitivity of 0.79 (95% CI = 0.54 to 0.94) and a specificity of 0.93 (95% CI = 0.86 to 0.97). Generalized mixed-model analysis demonstrated that abnormal peripheral perfusion on D2 and D3 was an independent predictor of severe postoperative complications (D2 odds ratio (OR) = 8.4, 95% CI = 2.7 to 25.9; D2 OR = 6.4, 95% CI = 2.1 to 19.6). Conclusions In a group of patients assessed following major abdominal surgery

  4. Prediction of Long-term Post-operative Testosterone Replacement Requirement Based on the Pre-operative Tumor Volume and Testosterone Level in Pituitary Macroadenoma

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng-Chi Lee; Chung-Ming Chen; Shih-Tseng Lee; Kuo-Chen Wei; Ping-Ching Pai; Cheng-Hong Toh; Chi-Cheng Chuang

    2015-01-01

    Non-functioning pituitary macroadenomas (NFPAs) are the most prevalent pituitary macroadenomas. One common symptom of NFPA is hypogonadism, which may require long-term hormone replacement. This study was designed to clarify the association between the pre-operative tumor volume, pre-operative testosterone level, intraoperative resection status and the need of long-term post-operative testosterone replacement. Between 2004 and 2012, 45 male patients with NFPAs were enrolled in this prospective...

  5. Lagrangian and Control Volume Models for Prediction of Cooling Lake Performance at SRP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garrett, A.J.

    2001-06-26

    The model validation described in this document indicates that the methods described here and by Cooper (1984) for predicting the performance of the proposed L-Area cooling lake are reliable. Extensive observations from the Par Pond system show that lake surface temperatures exceeding 32.2 degrees C (90 degrees F) are attained occasionally in the summer in areas where there is little or no heating from the P-Area Reactor. Regulations which restrict lake surface temperatures to less than 32.2 degrees C should be structured to allow for these naturally-occurring thermal excursions.

  6. Prediction by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN of the diffusivity, mass, moisture, volume and solids on osmotically dehydrated yacon (Smallantus sonchifolius

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio Rojas Naccha

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The predictive ability of Artificial Neural Network (ANN on the effect of the concentration (30, 40, 50 y 60 % w/w and temperature (30, 40 y 50°C of fructooligosaccharides solution, in the mass, moisture, volume and solids of osmodehydrated yacon cubes, and in the coefficients of the water means effective diffusivity with and without shrinkage was evaluated. The Feedforward type ANN with the Backpropagation training algorithms and the Levenberg-Marquardt weight adjustment was applied, using the following topology: 10-5 goal error, 0.01 learning rate, 0.5 moment coefficient, 2 input neurons, 6 output neurons, one hidden layer with 18 neurons, 15 training stages and logsig-pureline transfer functions. The overall average error achieved by the ANN was 3.44% and correlation coefficients were bigger than 0.9. No significant differences were found between the experimental values and the predicted values achieved by the ANN and with the predicted values achieved by a statistical model of second-order polynomial regression (p > 0.95.

  7. A Prospective Pathologic Study to Define the Clinical Target Volume for Partial Breast Radiation Therapy in Women With Early Breast Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, Brandon T., E-mail: Brandon.Nguyen@act.gov.au [Department of Radiation Oncology, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, East Melbourne, Victoria (Australia); Canberra Hospital, Radiation Oncology Department, Garran, ACT (Australia); Deb, Siddhartha [Department of Anatomical Pathology, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, East Melbourne, Victoria (Australia); Victorian Cancer Biobank, Cancer Council of Victoria, Carlton, Victoria (Australia); Fox, Stephen [Department of Anatomical Pathology, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, East Melbourne, Victoria (Australia); Hill, Prudence [Department of Anatomical Pathology, St. Vincent' s Hospital Melbourne, Fitzroy, Victoria (Australia); Collins, Marnie [Centre for Biostatistics and Clinical Trials, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, East Melbourne, Victoria (Australia); Chua, Boon H. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, East Melbourne, Victoria (Australia); University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria (Australia)

    2012-12-01

    Purpose: To determine an appropriate clinical target volume for partial breast radiation therapy (PBRT) based on the spatial distribution of residual invasive and in situ carcinoma after wide local excision (WLE) for early breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Methods and Materials: We performed a prospective pathologic study of women potentially eligible for PBRT who had re-excision and/or completion mastectomy after WLE for early breast cancer or DCIS. A pathologic assessment protocol was used to determine the maximum radial extension (MRE) of residual carcinoma from the margin of the initial surgical cavity. Women were stratified by the closest initial radial margin width: negative (>1 mm), close (>0 mm and {<=}1 mm), or involved. Results: The study population was composed of 133 women with a median age of 59 years (range, 27-82 years) and the following stage groups: 0 (13.5%), I (40.6%), II (38.3%), and III (7.5%). The histologic subtypes of the primary tumor were invasive ductal carcinoma (74.4%), invasive lobular carcinoma (12.0%), and DCIS alone (13.5%). Residual carcinoma was present in the re-excision and completion mastectomy specimens in 55.4%, 14.3%, and 7.2% of women with an involved, close, and negative margin, respectively. In the 77 women with a noninvolved radial margin, the MRE of residual disease, if present, was {<=}10 mm in 97.4% (95% confidence interval 91.6-99.5) of cases. Larger MRE measurements were significantly associated with an involved margin (P<.001), tumor size >30 mm (P=.03), premenopausal status (P=.03), and negative progesterone receptor status (P=.05). Conclusions: A clinical target volume margin of 10 mm would encompass microscopic residual disease in >90% of women potentially eligible for PBRT after WLE with noninvolved resection margins.

  8. Pattern not volume of bleeding predicts angiographic vasospasm in nonaneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raya, Amanda; Zipfel, Gregory J; Diringer, Michael N; Dacey, Ralph G; Derdeyn, Colin P; Rich, Keith M; Chicoine, Michael R; Dhar, Rajat

    2014-01-01

    Spontaneous idiopathic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) with a perimesencephalic bleeding pattern is usually associated with a benign course, whereas a diffuse bleeding pattern has been associated with a higher risk of vasospasm and disability. We evaluated whether volume of bleeding explains this disparity. Pattern and amount of bleeding (by Hijdra and intraventricular hemorrhage scores) were assessed in 89 patients with nonaneurysmal SAH. Outcomes included angiographic vasospasm, delayed cerebral ischemia, and functional outcome at 1 year. Diffuse bleeding was associated with significantly higher Hijdra and intraventricular hemorrhage scores than perimesencephalic SAH, P≤0.003. Angiographic vasospasm was more likely in diffuse versus perimesencephalic SAH (45% versus 27%; odds ratio, 2.9; P=0.08), but adjustment for greater blood burden only partially attenuated this trend (adjusted odds ratio, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-7.2; P=0.18); delayed cerebral ischemia was only seen in those with diffuse bleeding. Patients with diffuse bleeding were less likely to be discharged home (68% versus 90%; P=0.01) and tended to have more residual disability (modified Rankin scale, 3-6; 20% versus 6%; P=0.18). Nonaneurysmal SAH can still result in vasospasm and residual disability, especially in those with diffuse bleeding. This disparity is only partially accounted for by greater cisternal or intraventricular blood, suggesting that the mechanism and distribution of bleeding may be as important as the amount of hemorrhage in patients with idiopathic SAH.

  9. Major depressive episodes over the course of 7 years and hippocampal subfield volumes at 7 tesla MRI: the PREDICT-MR study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisse, L E M; Biessels, G J; Stegenga, B T; Kooistra, M; van der Veen, P H; Zwanenburg, J J M; van der Graaf, Y; Geerlings, M I

    2015-04-01

    Smaller hippocampal volumes have been associated with major depressive disorder (MDD). The hippocampus consists of several subfields that may be differentially related to MDD. We investigated the association of occurrence of major depressive episodes (MDEs), assessed five times over seven years, with hippocampal subfield and entorhinal cortex volumes at 7 tesla MRI. In this prospective study of randomly selected general practice attendees, MDEs according to DSM-IV-R criteria were assessed at baseline and after 6, 12, 39 and 84 months follow-up. At the last follow-up, a T2 (0.7 mm(3)) 7 tesla MRI scan was obtained in 47 participants (60±10 years). The subiculum, cornu ammonis (CA) 1 to 3, dentate gyrus&CA4 and entorhinal cortex volumes were manually segmented according a published protocol. Of the 47 participants, 13 had one MDE and 5 had multiple MDEs. ANCOVAs, adjusted for age, sex, education and intracranial volume, revealed no significant differences in hippocampal subfield or entorhinal cortex volumes between participants with and without an MDE in the preceding 84 months. Multiple episodes were associated with smaller subiculum volumes (B=-0.03 mL/episode; 95% CI -0.06; -0.003), but not with the other hippocampal subfield volumes, entorhinal cortex, or total hippocampal volume. A limitation of this study is the small sample size which makes replication necessary. In this exploratory study, we found that an increasing number of major depressive episodes was associated with smaller subiculum volumes in middle-aged and older persons, but not with smaller volumes in other hippocampal subfields or the entorhinal cortex. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. User's manual for MODCAL: Bounding surface soil plasticity model calibration and prediction code, volume 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennatale, J. S.; Herrmann, L. R.; Defalias, Y. F.

    1983-02-01

    In order to reduce the complexity of the model calibration process, a computer-aided automated procedure has been developed and tested. The computer code employs a Quasi-Newton optimization strategy to locate that set of parameter values which minimizes the discrepancy between the model predictions and the experimental observations included in the calibration data base. Through application to a number of real soils, the automated procedure has been found to be an efficient, reliable and economical means of accomplishing model calibration. Although the code was developed specifically for use with the Bounding Surface plasticity model, it can readily be adapted to other constitutive formulations. Since the code greatly reduces the dependence of calibration success on user expertise, it significantly increases the accessibility and usefulness of sophisticated material models to the general engineering community.

  11. FDG-PET Response Prediction in Pediatric Hodgkin’s Lymphoma: Impact of Metabolically Defined Tumor Volumes and Individualized SUV Measurements on the Positive Predictive Value

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hussien, Amr Elsayed M. [Department of Nuclear Medicine (KME), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Jülich, 52426 (Germany); Department of Nuclear Medicine, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, 40225 (Germany); Furth, Christian [Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Medical School, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Magdeburg, 39120 (Germany); Schönberger, Stefan [Department of Pediatric Oncology, Hematology and Clinical Immunology, University Children’s Hospital, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, 40225 (Germany); Hundsdoerfer, Patrick [Department of Pediatric Oncology and Hematology, Charité Campus Virchow, Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, 13353 (Germany); Steffen, Ingo G.; Amthauer, Holger [Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Medical School, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Magdeburg, 39120 (Germany); Müller, Hans-Wilhelm; Hautzel, Hubertus, E-mail: h.hautzel@fz-juelich.de [Department of Nuclear Medicine (KME), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Jülich, 52426 (Germany); Department of Nuclear Medicine, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, 40225 (Germany)

    2015-01-28

    Background: In pediatric Hodgkin’s lymphoma (pHL) early response-to-therapy prediction is metabolically assessed by (18)F-FDG PET carrying an excellent negative predictive value (NPV) but an impaired positive predictive value (PPV). Aim of this study was to improve the PPV while keeping the optimal NPV. A comparison of different PET data analyses was performed applying individualized standardized uptake values (SUV), PET-derived metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and the product of both parameters, termed total lesion glycolysis (TLG); Methods: One-hundred-eight PET datasets (PET1, n = 54; PET2, n = 54) of 54 children were analysed by visual and semi-quantitative means. SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV and TLG were obtained the results of both PETs and the relative change from PET1 to PET2 (Δ in %) were compared for their capability of identifying responders and non-responders using receiver operating characteristics (ROC)-curves. In consideration of individual variations in noise and contrasts levels all parameters were additionally obtained after threshold correction to lean body mass and background; Results: All semi-quantitative SUV estimates obtained at PET2 were significantly superior to the visual PET2 analysis. However, ΔSUVmax revealed the best results (area under the curve, 0.92; p < 0.001; sensitivity 100%; specificity 85.4%; PPV 46.2%; NPV 100%; accuracy, 87.0%) but was not significantly superior to SUVmax-estimation at PET2 and ΔTLGmax. Likewise, the lean body mass and background individualization of the datasets did not impove the results of the ROC analyses; Conclusions: Sophisticated semi-quantitative PET measures in early response assessment of pHL patients do not perform significantly better than the previously proposed ΔSUVmax. All analytical strategies failed to improve the impaired PPV to a clinically acceptable level while preserving the excellent NPV.

  12. FDG-PET Response Prediction in Pediatric Hodgkin’s Lymphoma: Impact of Metabolically Defined Tumor Volumes and Individualized SUV Measurements on the Positive Predictive Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amr Elsayed M. Hussien

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In pediatric Hodgkin’s lymphoma (pHL early response-to-therapy prediction is metabolically assessed by (18F-FDG PET carrying an excellent negative predictive value (NPV but an impaired positive predictive value (PPV. Aim of this study was to improve the PPV while keeping the optimal NPV. A comparison of different PET data analyses was performed applying individualized standardized uptake values (SUV, PET-derived metabolic tumor volume (MTV and the product of both parameters, termed total lesion glycolysis (TLG; Methods: One-hundred-eight PET datasets (PET1, n = 54; PET2, n = 54 of 54 children were analysed by visual and semi-quantitative means. SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV and TLG were obtained the results of both PETs and the relative change from PET1 to PET2 (Δ in % were compared for their capability of identifying responders and non-responders using receiver operating characteristics (ROC-curves. In consideration of individual variations in noise and contrasts levels all parameters were additionally obtained after threshold correction to lean body mass and background; Results: All semi-quantitative SUV estimates obtained at PET2 were significantly superior to the visual PET2 analysis. However, ΔSUVmax revealed the best results (area under the curve, 0.92; p < 0.001; sensitivity 100%; specificity 85.4%; PPV 46.2%; NPV 100%; accuracy, 87.0% but was not significantly superior to SUVmax-estimation at PET2 and ΔTLGmax. Likewise, the lean body mass and background individualization of the datasets did not impove the results of the ROC analyses; Conclusions: Sophisticated semi-quantitative PET measures in early response assessment of pHL patients do not perform significantly better than the previously proposed ΔSUVmax. All analytical strategies failed to improve the impaired PPV to a clinically acceptable level while preserving the excellent NPV.

  13. CTA collateral score predicts infarct volume and clinical outcome after endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke: a retrospective chart review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elijovich, Lucas; Goyal, Nitin; Mainali, Shraddha; Hoit, Dan; Arthur, Adam S; Whitehead, Matthew; Choudhri, Asim F

    2016-06-01

    Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) due to emergent large-vessel occlusion (ELVO) has a poor prognosis. To examine the hypothesis that a better collateral score on pretreatment CT angiography (CTA) would correlate with a smaller final infarct volume and a more favorable clinical outcome after endovascular therapy (EVT). A retrospective chart review of the University of Tennessee AIS database from February 2011 to February 2013 was conducted. All patients with CTA-proven LVO treated with EVT were included. Recanalization after EVT was defined by Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (TICI) score ≥2. Favorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Score ≤3. Fifty patients with ELVO were studied. The mean National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 17 (2-27) and 38 of the patients (76%) received intravenous tissue plasminogen activator. The recanalization rate for EVT was 86.6%. Good clinical outcome was achieved in 32% of patients. Univariate predictors of good outcome included good collateral scores (CS) on presenting CTA (p=0.043) and successful recanalization (p=0.02). Multivariate analysis confirmed both good CS (p=0.024) and successful recanalization (p=0.009) as predictors of favorable outcome. Applying results of the multivariate analysis to our cohort we were able to determine the likelihood of good clinical outcome as well as predictors of smaller final infarct volume after successful recanalization. Good CS predict smaller infarct volumes and better clinical outcome in patients recanalized with EVT. These data support the use of this technique in selecting patients for EVT. Poor CS should be considered as an exclusion criterion for EVT as patients with poor CS have poor clinical outcomes despite recanalization. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  14. Generation of predictive price and trading volume patterns in a model of dynamically evolving free market supply and demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Wang

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available I present a model of stock market price fluctuations incorporating effects of share supply as a history-dependent function of previous purchases and share demand as a function of price deviation from moving averages. Price charts generated show intervals of oscillations switching amplitude and frequency suddenly in time, forming price and trading volume patterns well-known in market technical analysis. Ultimate price trends agree with traditional predictions for specific patterns. The consideration of dynamically evolving supply and demand in this model resolves the apparent contradiction with the Efficient Market Hypothesis: perceptions of imprecise equity values by a world of investors evolve over non-negligible periods of time, with dependence on price history.

  15. Significant correlation between spleen volume and thrombocytopenia in liver transplant patients: a concept for predicting persistent thrombocytopenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohira, Masahiro; Ishifuro, Minoru; Ide, Kentaro; Irei, Toshimitsu; Tashiro, Hirotaka; Itamoto, Toshiyuki; Ito, Katsuhide; Chayama, Kazuaki; Asahara, Toshimasa; Ohdan, Hideki

    2009-02-01

    Interferon (IFN) therapy with or without ribavirin treatment is well established as a standard antiviral treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients. However, susceptibility to thrombocytopenia is a major obstacle for initiating or continuing this therapy, particularly in liver transplant (LTx) recipients with HCV. Studies have reported that splenectomy performed concurrently with LTx is a feasible strategy for conditioning patients for anti-HCV IFN therapy. However, the relationship between the severity of splenomegaly and alterations in the blood cytopenia in LTx recipients remains to be clarified. Here, we analyzed the relationship between spleen volume (SV) and thrombocytopenia in 45 patients who underwent LTx at Hiroshima University Hospital. The extent of pre-LTx splenomegaly [the SV to body surface area (BSA) ratio in an individual] was inversely correlated with both the post-LTx white blood cell count and platelet (PLT) count (P or= 400), persistent thrombocytopenia is predictable after LTx.

  16. Intermediate volume on computed tomography imaging defines a fibrotic compartment that predicts glomerular filtration rate decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caroli, Anna; Antiga, Luca; Conti, Sara; Sonzogni, Aurelio; Fasolini, Giorgio; Ondei, Patrizia; Perico, Norberto; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Remuzzi, Andrea

    2011-08-01

    Total kidney and cyst volumes have been used to quantify disease progression in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), but a causal relationship with progression to renal failure has not been demonstrated. Advanced image processing recently allowed to quantify extracystic tissue, and to identify an additional tissue component named "intermediate," appearing hypoenhanced on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT). The aim of this study is to provide a histological characterization of intermediate volume, investigate its relation with renal function, and provide preliminary evidence of its role in long-term prediction of functional loss. Three ADPKD patients underwent contrast-enhanced CT scans before nephrectomy. Histological samples of intermediate volume were drawn from the excised kidneys, and stained with hematoxylin and eosin and with saturated picrosirius solution for histological analysis. Intermediate volume showed major structural changes, characterized by tubular dilation and atrophy, microcysts, inflammatory cell infiltrate, vascular sclerosis, and extended peritubular interstitial fibrosis. A significant correlation (r = -0.69, P < 0.001) between relative intermediate volume and baseline renal function was found in 21 ADPKD patients. Long-term prediction of renal functional loss was investigated in an independent cohort of 13 ADPKD patients, followed for 3 to 8 years. Intermediate volume, but not total kidney or cyst volume, significantly correlated with glomerular filtration rate decline (r = -0.79, P < 0.005). These findings suggest that intermediate volume may represent a suitable surrogate marker of ADPKD progression and a novel therapeutic target.

  17. Statistical simulations to estimate motion-inclusive dose-volume histograms for prediction of rectal morbidity following radiotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    THOR, MARIA; APTE, ADITYA; DEASY, JOSEPH O.; MUREN, LUDVIG PAUL

    2016-01-01

    Background and purpose Internal organ motion over a course of radiotherapy (RT) leads to uncertainties in the actual delivered dose distributions. In studies predicting RT morbidity, the single estimate of the delivered dose provided by the treatment planning computed tomography (pCT) is typically assumed to be representative of the dose distribution throughout the course of RT. In this paper, a simple model for describing organ motion is introduced, and is associated to late rectal morbidity data, with the aim of improving morbidity prediction. Material and methods Organ motion was described by normally distributed translational motion, with its magnitude characterised by the standard deviation (SD) of this distribution. Simulations of both isotropic and anisotropic (anterior-posterior only) motion patterns were performed, as were random, systematic or combined random and systematic motion. The associations between late rectal morbidity and motion-inclusive delivered dose-volume histograms (dDVHs) were quantified using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (Rs) in a series of 232 prostate cancer patients, and were compared to the associations obtained with the static/planned DVH (pDVH). Results For both isotropic and anisotropic motion, different associations with rectal morbidity were seen with the dDVHs relative to the pDVHs. The differences were most pronounced in the mid-dose region (40–60 Gy). The associations were dependent on the applied motion patterns, with the strongest association with morbidity obtained by applying random motion with an SD in the range 0.2–0.8 cm. Conclusion In this study we have introduced a simple model for describing organ motion occurring during RT. Differing and, for some cases, stronger dose-volume dependencies were found between the motion-inclusive dose distributions and rectal morbidity as compared to the associations with the planned dose distributions. This indicates that rectal organ motion during RT influences the

  18. TFaNS Tone Fan Noise Design/Prediction System. Volume 1; System Description, CUP3D Technical Documentation and Manual for Code Developers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topol, David A.

    1999-01-01

    TFaNS is the Tone Fan Noise Design/Prediction System developed by Pratt & Whitney under contract to NASA Lewis (presently NASA Glenn). The purpose of this system is to predict tone noise emanating from a fan stage including the effects of reflection and transmission by the rotor and stator and by the duct inlet and nozzle. These effects have been added to an existing annular duct/isolated stator noise prediction capability. TFaNS consists of: The codes that compute the acoustic properties (reflection and transmission coefficients) of the various elements and write them to files. Cup3D: Fan Noise Coupling Code that reads these files, solves the coupling problem, and outputs the desired noise predictions. AWAKEN: CFD/Measured Wake Postprocessor which reformats CFD wake predictions and/or measured wake data so it can be used by the system. This volume of the report provides technical background for TFaNS including the organization of the system and CUP3D technical documentation. This document also provides information for code developers who must write Acoustic Property Files in the CUP3D format. This report is divided into three volumes: Volume I: System Description, CUP3D Technical Documentation, and Manual for Code Developers; Volume II: User's Manual, TFaNS Vers. 1.4; Volume III: Evaluation of System Codes.

  19. Can {sup 18}F-FDOPA PET/CT predict survival in patients with suspected recurrent glioma? A prospective study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karunanithi, Sellam, E-mail: drsellam84@yahoo.co.in [Department of Nuclear Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi (India); Sharma, Punit; Kumar, Abhishek [Department of Nuclear Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi (India); Gupta, Deepak Kumar [Department of Neurosurgery, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi (India); Khangembam, Bangkim Chandra; Ballal, Sanjana; Kumar, Rakesh; Kumar, Rajeev [Department of Nuclear Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi (India); Bal, Chandrasekhar, E-mail: csbal@hotmail.com [Department of Nuclear Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi (India)

    2014-01-15

    Purpose of the present study was to evaluate the role of {sup 18}F-FDOPA PET/CT for predicting survival in patients with suspected recurrent glioma. Methods: A total of 33 previously treated, histopathologically proven glioma patients with clinical and contrast enhanced MRI findings suspicious for recurrence were enrolled in this prospective study. All patients underwent {sup 18}F-FDOPA PET/CT. Ratios of tumor uptake to normal tissue uptake were generated by dividing the tumor SUVmax with SUVmax of the contralateral normal brain tissue (T/N), normal striatum (T/S), normal white matter (T/W) and normal cerebellum (T/C). Patients were followed up clinically and by repeated imaging. Data was censored, if the patient died of disease or at the end of the study. Survival analysis was performed for the distributions of each variable and by multivariate analysis. Results: {sup 18}F-FDOPA PET/CT was positive for recurrence in 25 patients and negative in 8. Death occurred in nineteen patients. Median follow up period was 20.2 months. Median survival in this study was 39.2 months. In univariate analysis significant association of survival was noted with results of {sup 18}F-FDOPA PET/CT (P = 0.007) and {sup 18}F-FDOPA PET/CT quantitative parameters namely SUVmax (P = 0.001), T/S (P = 0.005), T/W (P = 0.0004), T/N (P = 0.001) and T/C (P = 0.003) were found to be significant. On multivariate analysis, only MRI size of the recurrent tumor (P = 0.002) and T/N ratio of {sup 18}F-FDOPA PET/CT (P = 0.005) were found to be independent predictors of survival. Conclusion: T/N ratio on {sup 18}F-FDOPA PET/CT is an independent predictor of survival in patients with suspected recurrent glioma, along with size of recurrent tumor on MRI.

  20. Predição de peso ao nascimento pela ultra-sonografia tridimensional usando o volume do braço fetal: resultados preliminares Prediction of birth weight by three-dimensional ultrasonography using fetal upper arm volume: preliminary results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Márcio Fragoso Vieira

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: determinar a acurácia do volume do braço fetal aferido pela ultra-sonografia tridimensional (USG3D na predição de peso ao nascimento. MÉTODOS: realizou-se um estudo prospectivo, do tipo corte transversal, com 25 gestantes sem anormalidades estruturais ou cromossomopatias. Os parâmetros bidimensionais (diâmetro biparietal, circunferência abdominal e comprimento do fêmur e o volume do braço fetal pela USG3D foram avaliados em até 48 horas antes do parto. Para o cálculo do volume do braço fetal, utilizou-se o método multiplanar, por meio de múltiplos planos seqüenciais com intervalos de 5,0 mm. Realizaram-se regressões polinomiais para se determinar a melhor equação de predição de peso fetal. A acurácia desta nova fórmula foi comparada com as fórmulas bidimensionais de Shepard e Hadlock. RESULTADOS: o volume do braço fetal foi altamente correlacionado com o peso ao nascimento (r=0,83; p0,05. Em relação à fórmula de Hadlock, apenas o erro médio foi menor, mas não estatisticamente significante (p>0,05. CONCLUSÕES: o volume do braço fetal aferido pela USG3D mostrou acurácia similar às fórmulas bidimensionais na predição do peso ao nascimento. Há necessidade de estudos com maiores casuísticas para se comprovar esses achados.PURPOSE: to evaluate the accuracy of fetal upper arm volume, using three-dimensional ultrasound (3DUS, in the prediction of birth weight. METHODS: this prospective cross-sectional study involved 25 pregnancies without structural or chromosomal anomalies. Bidimensional parameters (biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference and femur length and the 3DUS fetal upper arm volume were obtained in the last 48 hours before delivery. The multiplanar method, using multiple sequential planes with 5.0-mm intervals, was used to calculate fetal upper arm volume. Polynomial regressions were used to determine the best equation in the prediction of fetal weight. The accuracy of this new formula was

  1. SU-E-T-430: Feasibility Study On Using Overlap Volume Histogram to Predict the Dose Difference by Respiratory Motion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, D; Kang, S; Kim, D; Kim, T; Kim, K; Cho, M; Suh, T [The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: The dose difference between three-dimensional dose (3D dose) and 4D dose which considers motion due to respiratory can be varied according to geometrical relationship between planning target volume (PTV) and organ at risk (OAR). The purpose of the study is to investigate the dose difference between 3D and 4D dose using overlap volume histogram (OVH) which is an indicator that quantify geometrical relationship between a PTV and an OAR. Methods: Five liver cancer patients who previously treated stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) were investigated. Four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) images were acquired for all patients. ITV-based treatment planning was performed. 3D dose was calculated on the end-exhale phase image as a reference phase image. 4D dose accumulation was implemented from all phase images using dose warping technique used deformable image registration (DIR) algorithm (Horn and Schunck optical flow) in DIRART. In this study OVH was used to quantify geometrical relationship between a PTV and an OAR. OVH between a PTV and a selected OAR was generated for each patient case and compared for all cases. The dose difference between 3D and 4D dose for normal organ was calculated and compared for all cases according to OVH. Results: The 3D and 4D dose difference for OAR was analyzed using dose-volume histogram (DVH). On the basis of a specific point which corresponds to 10% of OAR volume overlapped with expanded PTV, mean dose difference was 34.56% in minimum OVH distance case and 13.36% in maximum OVH distance case. As the OVH distance increased, mean dose difference between 4D and 3D dose was decreased. Conclusion: The tendency of dose difference variation was verified according to OVH. OVH is seems to be indicator that has a potential to predict the dose difference between 4D and 3D dose. This work was supported by the Radiation Technology R&D program (No. 2013M2A2A7043498) and the Mid-career Researcher Program (2014R1A2A1A10050270) through

  2. Can illness beliefs, from the common-sense model, prospectively predict adherence to self-management behaviours? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aujla, N; Walker, M; Sprigg, N; Abrams, K; Massey, A; Vedhara, K

    2016-08-01

    To determine whether people's beliefs about their illness, conceptualised by the common sense model (CSM), can prospectively predict adherence to self-management behaviours (including, attendance, medication, diet and exercise) in adults with acute and chronic physical illnesses. Electronic databases were searched in September 2014, for papers specifying the use of the 'CSM' in relation to 'self-management', 'rehabilitation' and 'adherence' in the context of physical illness. Six hundred abstracts emerged. Data from 52 relevant studies were extracted. Twenty-one studies were meta-analysed, using correlation coefficients in random effects models. The remainder were descriptively synthesised. The effect sizes for individual illness belief domains and adherence to self-management behaviours ranged from .04 to .13, indicating very weak, predictive relationships. Further analysis revealed that predictive relationships did not differ by the: type of self-management behaviour; acute or chronic illness; or duration of follow-up. Individual illness belief domains, outlined by the CSM, did not predict adherence to self-management behaviours in adults with physical illnesses. Prospective relationships, controlling for past behaviour, also did not emerge. Other factors, including patients' treatment beliefs and inter-relationships between individual illness beliefs domains, may have influenced potential associations with adherence to self-management behaviours.

  3. Calcaneal BMD Obtained by Dual X-Ray and Laser Predicts Future Hip Fractures—A Prospective Study on 4 398 Swedish Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torkel B. Brismar

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The predictive value of dual X-ray and laser (DXL calcaneal BMD (BMDDXL on hip fractures was prospectively studied in 4,398 females aged 55 to 99 years. The average follow-up period was 3 years and 11 months with a total of 17,270 person years. Fractures were identified from the national patient register. After inclusion, 130 females sustained a hip fracture. The age adjusted hazard ratio for T-score −2.5 was 2.64. Of all patients who sustained a hip fracture 78% had a T-score of −2.5 or below. The annual hip fracture rate was 0.26% at T-scores ≥−2, but 1.5% at T-scores ≤−2.5. The area under curve for the model including calcaneal BMDDXL, follow-up time, and age to prospectively predict hip fractures was 0.84. Conclusions. Calcaneal BMDDXL obtained by DXL Calscan predicts hip fractures and may therefore be suitable for diagnosing osteoporosis and for predicting fracture risk.

  4. Prediction of Freight Transport Impacts on Urban Road Volumes: A Case Study of Izmir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yıldırım Oral

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Planning paradigms, which aim to overcome urban transport problems, have to evaluate the mobility prediction of goods besides the mobility of individuals. This is a requirement and it comes up with different scales and features in the cities which contain high density of regional interactions. Urban roads respond from freight transport due to economy besides relation of productions and consumptions. This study is an instance to generate solutions for future which tries to evaluate respective interaction in the process of urban planning and transport planning. Study area has been stated as the city Izmir, TURKEY. The exact area is the legal responsibility border of the law 3030. The location and impact of freight transport generation stations cause total freight transport demands to rise up. Concurrently, there is a high ratio of freight transport in the transit traffic. Freight vehicles may be seen in every level of roads due to features of the road network. Therefore, it has been aimed to correlate freight transport moves with the location and impacts of the freight generation stations. This study also assumes that freight transport moves may have some measurable reasons and may contain usable parameters, for this purpose. The measurement of freight transport in Izmir, the density of the vehicles which interacts with the several aggregation areas and the location or impacts of the freight transport generation stations in those areas have been tried to evaluate simultaneously. The stages of the paradigm are determined as below: • To determine the categories of the freight transport generation stations and measurement values on urban roads,• To draw the borders of several aggregations areas and CBD area borders by determining enumeration points,• To measure density of freight vehicles move in terms of inner traffic,

  5. 成人标准肝体积预测公式的初步构建%Establishment of formula predicting adult standard liver volume for liver transplantation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王小飞; 严律南; 李波; 蓝翔; 袁丁; 张鸣; 魏永刚; 曾勇; 文天夫; 赵纪春

    2008-01-01

    目的 建立一个预测中国成人标准肝体积的公式.方法 收集2005年3月至2007年12月90例活体肝移植供者的临床资料,包括供者的性别(G)、年龄(Y)、身高(BH)、体重(BW)和术前CT扫描测量的全肝体积(TLV).分析TLV与上述其他指标的相关性,通过多重逐步线性回归得出预测标准肝体积的回归方程.并比较该公式和文献报道的公式预测的标准肝体积(ESLV)之间是否有差异.结果 90例供者的平均体重为(62.4±8.7)kg,平均TLV为(1319.1±167.0)ml,二者成正相关(r=0.655,P<0.01),可用公式TLV(ml)=12.5×BW(kg)+536.4来表示.与已发表文章中的公式相比,ESLV与TLV的差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05).结论 该研究建立了一个简单的更准确的预测中国成人标准肝体积的公式.%Objective To establish a favorable formula of estimation adult standard liver volume (SLV) based on the data of living donors for liver transplantation. Methods From March 2005 to December 2007,90 Adult-to-Adult living donor liver transplantation were performed. The donors' anthropemetric data of gender,year, body weight and body height was collected prospectively. The total liver volume (TLV) of 90 living donors was measured by computed tomography. The correlation between TLV and several factors including body weight index (BMI) and body surface area (BSA) were analyzed. Then multiple stepwise linear regression analysis was performed and a new equation predicting SLV to improve approximate TLV was determined. TLV was then compared with the estimation standard liver volume (ESLV) calculated using our formula and published formulas in literature previously. Results All the subjects had a mean body weight of (62.4±8.7) kg. The mean total liver volume was (1319.1±167.0) ml. There were positively correlated between TLV and body weight (BW), which could be expressed in the equation: TLV(ml)=12.5×BW (kg)+536.4(r2=0.43, P<0. 01). Compared TLV with ELSV, which were calculated using

  6. A predictive model to guide management of the overlap region between target volume and organs at risk in prostate cancer volumetric modulated arc therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattes, Malcolm D.; Lee, Jennifer C.; Einaiem, Sara; Guirguis, Adel; Ikoro, N. C.; Ashamalla Hani [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, New York Methodist Hospital, Brooklyn (United States)

    2013-12-15

    The goal of this study is to determine whether the magnitude of overlap between planning target volume (PTV) and rectum (Rectum{sub overlap}) or PTV and bladder (Bladder{sub overlap}) in prostate cancer volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) is predictive of the dose-volume relationships achieved after optimization, and to identify predictive equations and cutoff values using these overlap volumes beyond which the Quantitative Analyses of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) dose-volume constraints are unlikely to be met. Fifty-seven patients with prostate cancer underwent VMAT planning using identical optimization conditions and normalization. The PTV (for the 50.4 Gy primary plan and 30.6 Gy boost plan) included 5 to 10 mm margins around the prostate and seminal vesicles. Pearson correlations, linear regression analyses, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to correlate the percentage overlap with dose-volume parameters. The percentage Rectum{sub overlap} and Bladder{sub overlap} correlated with sparing of that organ but minimally impacted other dose-volume parameters, predicted the primary plan rectum V{sub 45} and bladder V{sub 50} with R{sup 2} = 0.78 and R{sup 2} = 0.83, respectively, and predicted the boost plan rectum V{sub 30} and bladder V{sub 30} with R{sup 2} = 0.53 and R{sup 2} = 0.81, respectively. The optimal cutoff value of boost Rectumoverlap to predict rectum V75 >15% was 3.5% (sensitivity 100%, specificity 94%, p < 0.01), and the optimal cutoff value of boost Bladder{sub overlap} to predict bladder V{sub 80} >10% was 5.0% (sensitivity 83%, specificity 100%, p < 0.01). The degree of overlap between PTV and bladder or rectum can be used to accurately guide physicians on the use of interventions to limit the extent of the overlap region prior to optimization.

  7. Prostate cancer volume associates with preoperative plasma levels of testosterone that independently predicts high grade tumours which show low densities (quotient testosterone/tumour volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio B. Porcaro

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: The investigation shows that TT relates to volume and grade of PCa; moreover, the density of TT relative to TV inversely associates with rate of increase of cancer that depends on the grade of the tumour.

  8. Treatment quality indicators predict short-term outcomes in patients with diabetes : a prospective cohort study using the GIANTT database

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sidorenkov, Grigory; Voorham, Jaco; de Zeeuw, Dick; Haaijer-Ruskamp, Flora M.; Denig, Petra

    2013-01-01

    Objective To assess whether quality indicators for treatment of cardiovascular and renal risk factors are associated with short-term outcomes in patients with diabetes. Design A prospective cohort study using linear regression adjusting for confounders. Setting The GIANTT database (Groningen Initiat

  9. Predicting Ecstasy Use among Young People at Risk: A Prospective Study of Initially Ecstasy-Naive Subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vervaeke, Hylke K.E.; Benschop, Annemieke; Van Den Brink, Wim; Korf, Dirk J.

    2008-01-01

    Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged up to 18 years who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy in the near future. After an 11- to…

  10. Predicting ecstasy use among young people at risk: a prospective study of initially ecstasy-naive subjects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.K.E. Vervaeke; A. Benschop; W. van den Brink; D.J. Korf

    2008-01-01

    Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged ≥ 18 who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy in t

  11. Prospective evaluation of early treatment outcome in patients with meningiomas treated with particle therapy based on target volume definition with MRI and {sup 68}Ga-DOTATOC-PET

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Combs, Stephanie E.; Welzel, Thomas; Habermehl, Daniel; Rieken, Stefan; Dittmar, Jan-Oliver; Kessel, Kerstin; Debus, Juergen [Univ. Hospital of Heidelberg, Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg (Germany)], e-mail: Stephanie.Combs@med.uni-heidelberg.de; Jaekel, Oliver [Heidelberg Ion Therapy Center (HIT), Heidelberg (Germany); Haberkorn, Uwe [Univ. Hospital of Heidelberg, Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany)

    2013-04-15

    Purpose: To evaluate early treatment results and toxicity in patients with meningiomas treated with particle therapy. Material and methods: Seventy patients with meningiomas were treated with protons (n = 38) or carbon ion radiotherapy (n = 26). Median age was 49 years. Median age at treatment was 55 years, 24 were male (34%), and 46 were female (66%). Histology was benign meningioma in 26 patients (37%), atypical in 23 patients (33%) and anaplastic in four patients (6%). In 17 patients (24%) with skull base meningiomas diagnosis was based on the typical appearance of a meningioma. For benign meningiomas, total doses of 52.2-57.6 GyE were applied with protons. For high-grade lesions, the boost volume was 18 GyE carbon ions, with a median dose of 50 GyE applied as highly conformal radiation therapy. Nineteen patients were treated as re-irradiation. Treatment planning with MRI and 68-Ga-DOTATOC-PET was evaluated. Results: Very low rates of side effects developed, including headaches, nausea and dizziness. No severe treatment-related toxicity was observed. Local control for benign meningiomas was 100%. Five of 27 patients (19%) developed tumor recurrence during follow-up. Of these, four patients had been treated as re-irradiation for recurrent high-risk meningiomas. Actuarial local control after re-irradiation of high-risk meningiomas was therefore 67% at six and 12 months. In patients treated with primary radiotherapy, only one of 13 patients (8%) developed tumor recurrence 17 months after radiation therapy (photon and carbon ion boost). Conclusion: Continuous prospective follow-up and development of novel study concepts are required to fully exploit the long-term clinical data after particle therapy for meningiomas. To date, it may be concluded that when proton therapy is available, meningioma patients can be offered a treatment at least comparable to high-end photon therapy.

  12. Dose-volume effect relationships for late rectal morbidity in patients treated with chemoradiation and MRI-guided adaptive brachytherapy for locally advanced cervical cancer: Results from the prospective multicenter EMBRACE study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazeron, Renaud; Fokdal, Lars U; Kirchheiner, Kathrin

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To establish dose volume–effect relationships predicting late rectal morbidity in cervix cancer patients treated with concomitant chemoradiation and MRI-guided adaptive brachytherapy (IBABT) within the prospective EMBRACE study. Material and method All patients were treated with curative ...

  13. Global fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity together with segmented brain volumes assemble a predictive discriminant model for young and elderly healthy brains: a pilot study at 3T

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Lazaro, Haydee Guadalupe; Becerra-Laparra, Ivonne; Cortez-Conradis, David; Roldan-Valadez, Ernesto

    2016-01-01

    Summary Several parameters of brain integrity can be derived from diffusion tensor imaging. These include fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD). Combination of these variables using multivariate analysis might result in a predictive model able to detect the structural changes of human brain aging. Our aim was to discriminate between young and older healthy brains by combining structural and volumetric variables from brain MRI: FA, MD, and white matter (WM), gray matter (GM) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) volumes. This was a cross-sectional study in 21 young (mean age, 25.71±3.04 years; range, 21–34 years) and 10 elderly (mean age, 70.20±4.02 years; range, 66–80 years) healthy volunteers. Multivariate discriminant analysis, with age as the dependent variable and WM, GM and CSF volumes, global FA and MD, and gender as the independent variables, was used to assemble a predictive model. The resulting model was able to differentiate between young and older brains: Wilks’ λ = 0.235, χ2 (6) = 37.603, p = .000001. Only global FA, WM volume and CSF volume significantly discriminated between groups. The total accuracy was 93.5%; the sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 91.30%, 100%, 100% and 80%, respectively. Global FA, WM volume and CSF volume are parameters that, when combined, reliably discriminate between young and older brains. A decrease in FA is the strongest predictor of membership of the older brain group, followed by an increase in WM and CSF volumes. Brain assessment using a predictive model might allow the follow-up of selected cases that deviate from normal aging. PMID:27027893

  14. A Multi-Center Prospective Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for Severe Clostridium difficile Infection.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Na, Xi

    2015-04-23

    Prediction of severe clinical outcomes in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is important to inform management decisions for optimum patient care. Currently, treatment recommendations for CDI vary based on disease severity but validated methods to predict severe disease are lacking. The aim of the study was to derive and validate a clinical prediction tool for severe outcomes in CDI.

  15. The Performance of a Modified Glasgow Blatchford Score in Predicting Clinical Interventions in Patients with Acute Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Vietnamese Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, Duc Trong; Dao, Ngoi Huu; Dinh, Minh Cao; Nguyen, Chung Huu; Ho, Linh Xuan; Nguyen, Nha-Doan Thi; Le, Quang Dinh; Vo, Cong Minh Hong; Le, Sang Kim; Hiyama, Toru

    2016-05-23

    To compare the performance of a modified Glasgow Blatchford score (mGBS) to the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS) and the pre-endoscopic Rockall score (RS) in predicting clinical interventions in Vietnamese patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (ANVUGIB). A prospective multicenter cohort study was conducted in five tertiary hospitals from May 2013 to February 2014. The mGBS, GBS, and pre-endoscopic RS scores were prospectively calculated for all patients. The accuracy of mGBS was compared with that of GBS and preendoscopic RS using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Clinical interventions were defined as blood transfusions, endoscopic or radiological intervention, or surgery. There were 395 patients including 128 (32.4%) needing endoscopic treatment, 117 (29.6%) requiring blood transfusion and two (0.5%) needing surgery. In predicting the need for clinical intervention, the mGBS (AUC, 0.707) performed as well as the GBS (AUC, 0.708; p=0.87) and outperformed the pre-endoscopic RS (AUC, 0.594; p<0.001). However, none of these scores effectively excluded the need for endoscopic intervention at a threshold of 0. mGBS performed as well as GBS and better than pre-endoscopic RS for predicting clinical interventions in Vietnamese patients with ANVUGIB. (Gut Liver 2016;10375- 381).

  16. Performance of the Rockall scoring system in predicting the need for intervention and outcomes in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a Brazilian setting: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custódio Lima, Juliana; Garcia Montes, Ciro; Kibune Nagasako, Cristiane; Soares Ruppert Reis, Glaucia Fernanda; Meirelles Dos Santos, José Olympio; Guerrazzi, Fabio; Mesquita, Maria Aparecida

    2013-01-01

    This prospective study investigated the performance of pre-endoscopy and the complete Rockall scores in predicting the occurrence of adverse outcomes and the need for endoscopic or surgical intervention in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. All 656 consecutive patients who underwent endoscopy due to nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding between 2007 and 2011 were included. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for the outcomes of therapeutic intervention, rebleeding and death. The discriminative accuracy of the risk scores was assessed by the area under the ROC curve. Endoscopic treatment was performed in 55.2% of the patients. Rebleeding and mortality rates were 7.6 and 3.8%, respectively. The pre-endoscopy Rockall scores showed unsatisfactory accuracy in predicting the need for intervention, rebleeding or death, as shown by the respective area under the ROC curve values of 0.52, 0.52 and 0.65. The accuracy of the complete Rockall score in predicting rebleeding was poor (area under ROC: 0.52), but it was higher for mortality (area under ROC: 0.69). The pre-endoscopy Rockall score was not useful for predicting the need for therapeutic intervention or adverse outcomes. The complete Rockall score showed an acceptable performance in predicting mortality, but was unable to predict rebleeding.

  17. Predicting students' physical activity and health-related well-being: a prospective cross-domain investigation of motivation across school physical education and exercise settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standage, Martyn; Gillison, Fiona B; Ntoumanis, Nikos; Treasure, Darren C

    2012-02-01

    A three-wave prospective design was used to assess a model of motivation guided by self-determination theory (Ryan & Deci, 2008) spanning the contexts of school physical education (PE) and exercise. The outcome variables examined were health-related quality of life (HRQoL), physical self-concept (PSC), and 4 days of objectively assessed estimates of activity. Secondary school students (n = 494) completed questionnaires at three separate time points and were familiarized with how to use a sealed pedometer. Results of structural equation modeling supported a model in which perceptions of autonomy support from a PE teacher positively predicted PE-related need satisfaction (autonomy, competence, and relatedness). Competence predicted PSC, whereas relatedness predicted HRQoL. Autonomy and competence positively predicted autonomous motivation toward PE, which in turn positively predicted autonomous motivation toward exercise (i.e., 4-day pedometer step count). Autonomous motivation toward exercise positively predicted step count, HRQoL, and PSC. Results of multisample structural equation modeling supported gender invariance. Suggestions for future work are discussed.

  18. Predicting Noninsulin Antidiabetic Drug Adherence Using a Theoretical Framework Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zomahoun, Hervé Tchala Vignon; Moisan, Jocelyne; Lauzier, Sophie; Guillaumie, Laurence; Grégoire, Jean-Pierre; Guénette, Line

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the process behind noninsulin antidiabetic drug (NIAD) nonadherence is necessary for designing effective interventions to resolve this problem. This study aimed to explore the ability of the theory of planned behavior (TPB), which is known as a good predictor of behaviors, to predict the future NIAD adherence in adults with type 2 diabetes. We conducted a prospective study of adults with type 2 diabetes. They completed a questionnaire on TPB variables and external variables. Linear regression was used to explore the TPB's ability to predict future NIAD adherence, which was prospectively measured as the proportion of days covered by at least 1 NIAD using pharmacy claims data. The interaction between past NIAD adherence and intention was tested. The sample included 340 people. There was an interaction between past NIAD adherence and intention to adhere to the NIAD (P = 0.032). Intention did not predict future NIAD adherence in the past adherers and nonadherers groups, but its association measure was high among past nonadherers (β = 5.686, 95% confidence interval [CI] -10.174, 21.546). In contrast, intention was mainly predicted by perceived behavioral control both in the past adherers (β = 0.900, 95% CI 0.796, 1.004) and nonadherers groups (β = 0.760, 95% CI 0.555, 0.966). The present study suggests that TPB is a good tool to predict intention to adhere and future NIAD adherence. However, there was a gap between intention to adhere and actual adherence to the NIAD, which is partly explained by the past adherence level in adults with type 2 diabetes.

  19. Behavioral forecasts do not improve the prediction of future behavior: a prospective study of self-injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janis, Irene Belle; Nock, Matthew K

    2008-10-01

    Clinicians are routinely encouraged to use multimodal assessments incorporating information from multiple sources when determining an individual's risk of dangerous or self-injurious behavior; however, some sources of information may not improve prediction models and so should not be relied on in such assessments. The authors examined whether individuals' prediction of their own future behavior improves prediction over using history of self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITB) alone. Sixty-four adolescents with a history of SITB were interviewed regarding their past year history of SITB, asked about the likelihood that they would engage in future SITB, and followed over a 6-month period. Individuals' forecasts of their future behavior were related to subsequent SITB, but did not improve prediction beyond the use of SITB history. In contrast, history of SITB improved prediction of subsequent SITB beyond individuals' behavioral forecasts. Clinicians should rely more on past history of a behavior than individuals' forecasts of future behavior in predicting SITB.

  20. Medida da freqüência respiratória e do volume corrente para prever a falha na extubação de recém-nascidos de muito baixo peso em ventilação mecânica Evaluation of respiratory rate and tidal volume to predict extubation failure in mechanically ventilated very low birth weight infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josy Davidson

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Verificar se a freqüência respiratória (FR, o volume corrente (VC e a relação FR/VC poderiam prever a falha na extubação em recém-nascidos de muito baixo peso submetidos à ventilação mecânica. MÉTODOS: Estudo prospectivo, observacional, de recém-nascidos com idade gestacional OBJECTIVE: To verify if respiratory rate (RR, tidal volume (TV and respiratory rate and tidal volume ratio (RR/TV could predict extubation failure in very low birth weight infants submitted to mechanical ventilation. METHODS: This prospective observational study enrolled newborn infants with gestational age <37 weeks and birth weight <1,500g, mechanically ventilated from birth during 48 hours to 30 days and thought to be ready for extubation. As soon as the physicians decided for extubation, the neonates received endotracheal continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP for 10 minutes while spontaneous RR, TV and RR/TV were measured using a fixed-orifice pneumotachograph positioned between the endotracheal tube and the ventilator circuit. Thereafter, the neonates were extubated to nasal CPAP. Extubation failure was defined as the need for reintubation within 48 hours. RESULTS: Of the 35 studied infants, 20 (57% were successfully extubated and 15 (43% required reintubation. RR and RR/TV before extubation had a trend to be higher in unsuccessfully extubated infants. TV was similar in both groups. Sensitivity and specificity of these parameters as predictors of extubation failure were 50 and 67% respectively for RR, 40 and 67% for TV and 40 and 73% for RR/TV. CONCLUSIONS: RR, TV and RR/TV showed low sensitivity and specificity to predict extubation failure in mechanically ventilated very low birth weight infants.

  1. Can Sarcopenia Quantified by Ultrasound of the Rectus Femoris Muscle Predict Adverse Outcome of Surgical Intensive Care Unit Patients as well as Frailty? A Prospective, Observational Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Noomi; Murthy, Sushila; Tainter, Christopher R; Lee, Jarone; Riddell, Kathleen; Fintelmann, Florian J; Grabitz, Stephanie D; Timm, Fanny P; Levi, Benjamin; Kurth, Tobias; Eikermann, Matthias

    2016-12-01

    To compare sarcopenia and frailty for outcome prediction in surgical intensive care unit (SICU) patients. Frailty has been associated with adverse outcomes and describes a status of muscle weakness and decreased physiological reserve leading to increased vulnerability to stressors. However, frailty assessment depends on patient cooperation. Sarcopenia can be quantified by ultrasound and the predictive value of sarcopenia at SICU admission for adverse outcome has not been defined. We conducted a prospective, observational study of SICU patients. Sarcopenia was diagnosed by ultrasound measurement of rectus femoris cross-sectional area. Frailty was diagnosed by the Frailty Index Questionnaire based on 50 variables. Relationship between variables and outcomes was assessed by multivariable regression analysis NCT02270502. Sarcopenia and frailty were quantified in 102 patients and observed in 43.1% and 38.2%, respectively. Sarcopenia predicted adverse discharge disposition (discharge to nursing facility or in-hospital mortality, odds ratio 7.49; 95% confidence interval 1.47-38.24; P = 0.015) independent of important clinical covariates, as did frailty (odds ratio 8.01; 95% confidence interval 1.82-35.27; P = 0.006); predictive ability did not differ between sarcopenia and frailty prediction model, reflected by χ values of 21.74 versus 23.44, respectively, and a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of -0.02 (P = 0.87). Sarcopenia and frailty predicted hospital length of stay and the frailty model had a moderately better predictive accuracy for this outcome. Bedside diagnosis of sarcopenia by ultrasound predicts adverse discharge disposition in SICU patients equally well as frailty. Sarcopenia assessed by ultrasound may be utilized as rapid beside modality for risk stratification of critically ill patients.

  2. Method of tumor volume evaluation using magnetic resonance imaging for outcome prediction in cervical cancer treated with concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hun Jung; Kim, Woo Chul [Inha University Hospital, Inha University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-06-15

    To evaluate the patterns of tumor shape and to compare tumor volume derived from simple diameter-based ellipsoid measurement with that derived from tracing the entire tumor contour using region of interest (ROI)-based 3D volumetry with respect to the prediction outcome in cervical cancer patients treated with concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 98 patients with cervical cancer (stage IB-IIIB). The tumor shape was classified into two categories: ellipsoid and non-ellipsoid shape. ROI-based volumetry was derived from each magnetic resonance slice on the work station. For the diameter-based surrogate 'ellipsoid volume,' the three orthogonal diameters were measured to calculate volume as an ellipsoid. The more than half of tumor (55.1%) had a non-ellipsoid configuration. The predictions for outcome were consistent between two volume groups, with overall survival of 93.6% and 87.7% for small tumor (<20 mL), 62.9% and 69.1% for intermediate-size tumor (20-39 mL), and 14.5% and 16.7% for large tumors ({>=}40 mL) using ROI and diameter based measurement, respectively. Disease-free survival was 93.8% and 90.6% for small tumor, 54.3% and 62.7% for intermediate-size tumor, and 13.7% and 10.3% for large tumor using ROI and diameter based method, respectively. Differences in outcome between size groups were statistically significant, and the differences in outcome predicted by the tumor volume by two different methods. Our data suggested that large numbers of cervical cancers are not ellipsoid. However, simple diameter-based tumor volume measurement appears to be useful in comparison with ROI-based volumetry for predicting outcome in cervical cancer patients.

  3. Upward spirals of the heart: autonomic flexibility, as indexed by vagal tone, reciprocally and prospectively predicts positive emotions and social connectedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Bethany E; Fredrickson, Barbara L

    2010-12-01

    Vagal tone (VT), an index of autonomic flexibility, is linked to social and psychological well-being. We posit that the association between VT and well-being reflects an "upward spiral" in which autonomic flexibility, represented by VT, facilitates capitalizing on social and emotional opportunities and the resulting opportunistic gains, in turn, lead to higher VT. Community-dwelling adults were asked to monitor and report their positive emotions and the degree to which they felt socially connected each day for 9 weeks. VT was measured at the beginning and end of the 9-week period. Adults who possessed higher initial levels of VT increased in connectedness and positive emotions more rapidly than others. Furthermore, increases in connectedness and positive emotions predicted increases in VT, independent of initial VT level. This evidence is consistent with an "upward spiral" relationship of reciprocal causality, in which VT and psychosocial well-being reciprocally and prospectively predict one another.

  4. A prediction tool for nosocomial multi-drug Resistant Gram-Negative Bacilli infections in critically ill patients - prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasudevan, Anupama; Mukhopadhyay, Amartya; Li, Jialiang; Yuen, Eugene Goh Yu; Tambyah, Paul Ananth

    2014-11-25

    The widespread use of empiric broad spectrum antibiotics has contributed to the global increase of Resistant Gram-Negative Bacilli (RGNB) infections in intensive care units (ICU). The aim of this study was to develop a tool to predict nosocomial RGNB infections among ICU patients for targeted therapy. We conducted a prospective observational study from August'07 to December'11. All adult patients who were admitted and stayed for more than 24 hours at the medical and surgical ICU's were included. All patients who developed nosocomial RGNB infections 48 hours after ICU admission were identified. A prediction score was formulated by using independent risk factors obtained from logistic regression analysis. This was prospectively validated with a subsequent cohort of patients admitted to the ICUs during the following time period of January-September 2012. Seventy-six patients with nosocomial RGNB Infection (31bacteremia) were compared with 1398 patients with Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) without any gram negative bacterial infection/colonization admitted to the ICUs during the study period. The following independent risk factors were obtained by a multivariable logistic regression analysis - prior isolation of Gram negative organism (coeff: 1.1, 95% CI 0.5-1.7); Surgery during current admission (coeff: 0.69, 95% CI 0.2-1.2); prior Dialysis with end stage renal disease (coeff: 0.7, 95% CI 0.1-1.1); prior use of Carbapenems (coeff: 1.3, 95% CI 0.3-2.3) and Stay in the ICU for more than 5 days (coeff: 2.4, 95% CI 1.6-3.2). It was validated prospectively in a subsequent cohort (n = 408) and the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of the GSDCS score for predicting nosocomial ICU acquired RGNB infection and bacteremia was 0.77 (95% CI 0.68-0.89 and 0.78 (95% CI 0.69-0.89) respectively. The GSDCS (0-4.3) score clearly differentiated the low (0-1.3), medium (1.4-2.3) and high (2.4-4.3) risk patients, both for RGNB infection (p:0.003) and bacteremia (p:0

  5. First Trimester Urine and Serum Metabolomics for Prediction of Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension: A Prospective Screening Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austdal, Marie; Tangerås, Line H; Skråstad, Ragnhild B; Salvesen, Kjell; Austgulen, Rigmor; Iversen, Ann-Charlotte; Bathen, Tone F

    2015-09-08

    Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, including preeclampsia, are major contributors to maternal morbidity. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential of metabolomics to predict preeclampsia and gestational hypertension from urine and serum samples in early pregnancy, and elucidate the metabolic changes related to the diseases. Metabolic profiles were obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of serum and urine samples from 599 women at medium to high risk of preeclampsia (nulliparous or previous preeclampsia/gestational hypertension). Preeclampsia developed in 26 (4.3%) and gestational hypertension in 21 (3.5%) women. Multivariate analyses of the metabolic profiles were performed to establish prediction models for the hypertensive disorders individually and combined. Urinary metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 51.3% and 40% sensitivity, respectively, at 10% false positive rate, with hippurate as the most important metabolite for the prediction. Serum metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 15% and 33% sensitivity, respectively, with increased lipid levels and an atherogenic lipid profile as most important for the prediction. Combining maternal characteristics with the urinary hippurate/creatinine level improved the prediction rates of preeclampsia in a logistic regression model. The study indicates a potential future role of clinical importance for metabolomic analysis of urine in prediction of preeclampsia.

  6. First Trimester Urine and Serum Metabolomics for Prediction of Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension: A Prospective Screening Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Austdal

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, including preeclampsia, are major contributors to maternal morbidity. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential of metabolomics to predict preeclampsia and gestational hypertension from urine and serum samples in early pregnancy, and elucidate the metabolic changes related to the diseases. Metabolic profiles were obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of serum and urine samples from 599 women at medium to high risk of preeclampsia (nulliparous or previous preeclampsia/gestational hypertension. Preeclampsia developed in 26 (4.3% and gestational hypertension in 21 (3.5% women. Multivariate analyses of the metabolic profiles were performed to establish prediction models for the hypertensive disorders individually and combined. Urinary metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 51.3% and 40% sensitivity, respectively, at 10% false positive rate, with hippurate as the most important metabolite for the prediction. Serum metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 15% and 33% sensitivity, respectively, with increased lipid levels and an atherogenic lipid profile as most important for the prediction. Combining maternal characteristics with the urinary hippurate/creatinine level improved the prediction rates of preeclampsia in a logistic regression model. The study indicates a potential future role of clinical importance for metabolomic analysis of urine in prediction of preeclampsia.

  7. Myocardial Extracellular Volume Fraction with Dual-Energy Equilibrium Contrast-enhanced Cardiac CT in Nonischemic Cardiomyopathy: A Prospective Comparison with Cardiac MR Imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hye-Jeong; Im, Dong Jin; Youn, Jong-Chan; Chang, Suyon; Suh, Young Joo; Hong, Yoo Jin; Kim, Young Jin; Hur, Jin; Choi, Byoung Wook

    2016-07-01

    Purpose To evaluate the feasibility of equilibrium contrast material-enhanced dual-energy cardiac computed tomography (CT) to determine extracellular volume fraction (ECV) in nonischemic cardiomyopathy (CMP) compared with magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Materials and Methods This study was approved by the institutional review board; informed consent was obtained. Seven healthy subjects and 23 patients (six with hypertrophic CMP, nine with dilated CMP, four with amyloidosis, and four with sarcoidosis) (mean age ± standard deviation, 57.33 years ± 14.82; 19 male participants [63.3%]) were prospectively enrolled. Twelve minutes after contrast material injection (1.8 mL/kg at 3 mL/sec), dual-energy cardiac CT was performed. ECV was measured by two observers independently. Hematocrit levels were compared between healthy subjects and patients with the Mann-Whitney U test. In per-subject analysis, interobserver agreement for CT was assessed with the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and intertest agreement between MR imaging and CT was assessed with Bland-Altman analysis. In per-segment analysis, Student t tests in the linear mixed model were used to compare ECV on CT images between healthy subjects and patients. Results Hematocrit level was 43.44% ± 1.80 for healthy subjects and 41.23% ± 5.61 for patients with MR imaging (P = .16) and 43.50% ± 1.92 for healthy subjects and 41.35% ± 5.92 for patients with CT (P = .15). For observer 1 in per-subject analysis, ECV was 34.18% ± 8.98 for MR imaging and 34.48% ± 8.97 for CT. For observer 2, myocardial ECV was 34.42% ± 9.03 for MR imaging and 33.98% ± 9.05 for CT. Interobserver agreement for ECV at CT was excellent (ICC = 0.987). Bland-Altman analysis between MR imaging and CT showed a small bias (-0.06%), with 95% limits of agreement of -1.19 and 1.79. Compared with healthy subjects, patients with hypertrophic CMP, dilated CMP, amyloidosis, and sarcoidosis had significantly higher myocardial ECV at dual

  8. Does the timed up and go test predict future falls among British community-dwelling older people? Prospective cohort study nested within a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojima, Gotaro; Masud, Tahir; Kendrick, Denise; Morris, Richard; Gawler, Sheena; Treml, Jonathan; Iliffe, Steve

    2015-04-03

    Falling is common among older people. The Timed-Up-and-Go Test (TUG) is recommended as a screening tool for falls but its predictive value has been challenged. The objectives of this study were to examine the ability of TUG to predict future falls and to estimate the optimal cut-off point to identify those with higher risk for future falls. This is a prospective cohort study nested within a randomised controlled trial including 259 British community-dwelling older people ≥65 years undergoing usual care. TUG was measured at baseline. Prospective diaries captured falls over 24 weeks. A Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis determined the optimal cut-off point to classify future falls risk with sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of TUG times. Logistic regression models examined future falls risk by TUG time. Sixty participants (23%) fell during the 24 weeks. The area under the curve was 0.58 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 0.49-0.67, p = 0.06), suggesting limited predictive value. The optimal cut-off point was 12.6 seconds and the corresponding sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 30.5%, 89.5%, 46.2%, and 81.4%. Logistic regression models showed each second increase in TUG time (adjusted for age, gender, comorbidities, medications and past history of two falls) was significantly associated with future falls (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.00-1.19, p = 0.05). A TUG time ≥12.6 seconds (adjusted OR = 3.94, 95% CI = 1.69-9.21, p = 0.002) was significantly associated with future falls, after the same adjustments. TUG times were significantly and independently associated with future falls. The ability of TUG to predict future falls was limited but with high specificity and negative predictive value. TUG may be most useful in ruling in those with a high risk of falling rather than as a primary measure in the ascertainment of risk.

  9. Evaluation of the reliability of preoperative descriptive airway assessment tests in prediction of the Cormack-Lehane score: A prospective randomized clinical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvi, Onur; Kahraman, Tugce; Senturk, Ozgur; Tulgar, Serkan; Serifsoy, Ercan; Ozer, Zeliha

    2017-02-01

    In this study we investigated and compared the predictive values of different airway assessments tests including thyromental height measurement test, which has been recently suggested, in difficult laryngoscopy (Cormack and Lehane [C-L] scores 3 and 4). In addition, we compared the effectiveness of methods and C-L scores, by IDS, in terms of predicting difficult intubation. Prospective, blinded study. Maltepe University. Four hundred fifty-one patients selected randomly who underwent general anesthesia. In this study we compared predictive value of thyromental height measurement test (TMH), which has been recently suggested, modified Mallampati test (MMT), upper lip bite test (ULBT), and thyromental distance measurement test (TMD) in difficult laryngoscopy. Final C-L scores were compared with intubation difficulty scale (IDS) in terms of predicting difficult intubation. Patient's American Society of Anesthesiology score, age and weight were recorded. TMH, TMD, MMT, ULBT, IDS and C-L scores were measured and determined. The optimal cut-off point for TMH for predicting difficult laryngoscopy was 43.5 mm and for TMD was 82.06 mm. Use of TMH <43.5 with MMT has the highest sensitivity for predicting difficult intubation (78.38) with 75.36% specificity and 97.50% negative predictive value. TMH showed sensitivity of 91.89% and specificity 52.17% at 50 mm cut-off value. In the comparison of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values, none of the tests came forth individually or in combination with MMT test. The present study demonstrates the practicality of TMH as a digitalized test however the clinical benefits of TMH in daily medical practice are drawn into question. The additional variable of race may have had some bearing on this and further studies, larger in patient sample size, may need to use different methodology concerning age-, sex-, and race-dependent variables in evaluating these tests. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The early predictive value of a decrease of metabolic tumor volume in repeated (18)F-FDG PET/CT for recurrence of locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer with concurrent radiochemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei; Liu, Bo; Fan, Min; Zhou, Tao; Fu, Zheng; Zhang, Zicheng; Li, Hongsheng; Li, Baosheng

    2015-03-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the value of [(18)F] fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography ((18)F FDG PET/CT) to predict recurrence of patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) during the early stage of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). A total of 53 stage III NSCLC patients without diabetics or undergoing surgery were enrolled in the prospective study. Those patients were evaluated by FDG PET before and following 40Gy radiotherapy (RT) with a concurrent cisplatin-based heterogeneous chemotherapy regimen. Semiquantitative assessment was used to determine maximum and mean SUVs (SUVmax/SUVmean) and metabolic tumor volume (MTV) of the primary tumor. The prognostic significance of PET/CT parameters and other clinical variables was assessed using Cox regression analyses. The cutoffs of PET/CT parameters which have been determined by the previous study were used to separate the groups with Kaplan-Meier curves. Recurrence rates at 1- and 2-years were 18.9% (10/53) and 50.9% (27/53) for all patients, respectively. Cox regression analysis showed that the only prognostic factor for recurrence was a decrease of MTV. Using the cutoff of 29.7%, a decrease of MTV can separate the patients into 2 groups with Kaplan-Meier curve successfully. The prospective study has reinforced the early predictive value of MTV in repeated (18)F-FDG PET/CT for recurrence in a subgroup of locally advanced NSCLC who underwent CCRT. A decrease of MTV in (18)F-FDG uptake by the primary tumor correlates with higher LRFS. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A Prospective Cohort Study Evaluating the Ability of Anticipated Pain, Perceived Analgesic Needs, and Psychological Traits to Predict Pain and Analgesic Usage following Cesarean Delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Brendan; Zheng, Ming; Harter, Scott; Sultan, Pervez

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. This study aimed to determine if preoperative psychological tests combined with simple pain prediction ratings could predict pain intensity and analgesic usage following cesarean delivery (CD). Methods. 50 healthy women undergoing scheduled CD with spinal anesthesia comprised the prospective study cohort. Preoperative predictors included 4 validated psychological questionnaires (Anxiety Sensitivity Index (ASI), Fear of Pain (FPQ), Pain Catastrophizing Scale, and Eysenck Personality Questionnaire) and 3 simple ratings: expected postoperative pain (0-10), anticipated analgesic threshold (0-10), and perceived analgesic needs (0-10). Postoperative outcome measures included post-CD pain (combined rest and movement) and opioid used for the 48-hour study period. Results. Bivariate correlations were significant with expected pain and opioid usage (r = 0.349), anticipated analgesic threshold and post-CD pain (r = -0.349), and perceived analgesic needs and post-CD pain (r = 0.313). Multiple linear regression analysis found that expected postoperative pain and anticipated analgesic needs contributed to post-CD pain prediction modeling (R (2) = 0.443, p pain, ASI, and FPQ were associated with opioid usage (R (2) = 0.421, p pain prediction ratings accounted for 44% and 42% of pain and analgesic use variance, respectively. Preoperatively determined expected postoperative pain and perceived analgesic needs appear to be useful predictors for post-CD pain and analgesic requirements.

  12. A Prospective Cohort Study Evaluating the Ability of Anticipated Pain, Perceived Analgesic Needs, and Psychological Traits to Predict Pain and Analgesic Usage following Cesarean Delivery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendan Carvalho

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This study aimed to determine if preoperative psychological tests combined with simple pain prediction ratings could predict pain intensity and analgesic usage following cesarean delivery (CD. Methods. 50 healthy women undergoing scheduled CD with spinal anesthesia comprised the prospective study cohort. Preoperative predictors included 4 validated psychological questionnaires (Anxiety Sensitivity Index (ASI, Fear of Pain (FPQ, Pain Catastrophizing Scale, and Eysenck Personality Questionnaire and 3 simple ratings: expected postoperative pain (0–10, anticipated analgesic threshold (0–10, and perceived analgesic needs (0–10. Postoperative outcome measures included post-CD pain (combined rest and movement and opioid used for the 48-hour study period. Results. Bivariate correlations were significant with expected pain and opioid usage (r=0.349, anticipated analgesic threshold and post-CD pain (r=-0.349, and perceived analgesic needs and post-CD pain (r=0.313. Multiple linear regression analysis found that expected postoperative pain and anticipated analgesic needs contributed to post-CD pain prediction modeling (R2=0.443, p<0.0001; expected postoperative pain, ASI, and FPQ were associated with opioid usage (R2=0.421, p<0.0001. Conclusion. Preoperative psychological tests combined with simple pain prediction ratings accounted for 44% and 42% of pain and analgesic use variance, respectively. Preoperatively determined expected postoperative pain and perceived analgesic needs appear to be useful predictors for post-CD pain and analgesic requirements.

  13. Development and validation of serum bilirubin nomogram to predict the absence of risk for severe hyperbilirubinaemia before discharge: a prospective, multicenter study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romagnoli Costantino

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Early discharge of healthy late preterm and full term newborn infants has become common practice because of the current social and economic necessities. Severe jaundice, and even kernicterus, has developed in some term infants discharged early. This study was designed to elaborate a percentile-based hour specific total serum bilirubin (TSB nomogram and to assess its ability to predict the absence of risk for subsequent non physiologic severe hyperbilirubinaemia before discharge. Methods A percentile-based hour-specific nomogram for TSB values was performed using TSB data of 1708 healthy full term neonates. The nomogram's predictive ability was then prospectively assessed in five different first level neonatal units, using a single TSB value determined before discharge. Results The 75 th percentile of hour specific TSB nomogram allows to predict newborn babies without significant hyperbilirubinemia only after the first 72 hours of life. In the first 48 hours of life the observation of false negative results did not permit a safe discharge from the hospital. Conclusion The hour-specific TSB nomogram is able to predict all neonates without risk of non physiologic hyperbilirubinemia only after 48 to 72 hours of life. The combination of TSB determination and risk factors for hyperbilirubinemia could facilitate a safe discharge from the hospital and a targeted intervention and follow-up.

  14. Predictive value of PET response combined with baseline metabolic tumor volume in peripheral T-cell lymphoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottereau, Anne-Segolene; El-Galaly, Tarec C; Becker, Stéphanie; Broussais, Florence; Peterson, Lars Jelstrup; Bonnet, Christophe; Prior, John O; Tilly, Herve; Hutchings, Martin; Casasnovas, Olivier; Meignan, Michel A

    2017-09-01

    Peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) is a heterogeneous group of aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphomas with poor outcomes with current therapy. We investigated if response assessed with Positron Emission Tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) combined with baseline total metabolic tumor volume (TMTV) could detect early relapse/refractory patients. Methods: 140 patients with nodal PTCL who underwent baseline PET/CT were selected from 7 European centers. 43 had interim PET (iPET) performed after two cycles (iPET2), 95 after 3 or 4 cycles (iPET3/4) and 96 had end of treatment PET (eotPET). Baseline TMTV was computed with 41% SUVmax threshold, and PET response was reported with the Deauville 5-point scale (5-PS). Results: With 43 months median follow-up, the 2-year Progression free survival (PFS) and Overall survival (OS) were 51% and 67%. Positive iPET2 patients (5-PS ≥4) had a significantly worse outcome than those with negative iPET2 (p230cm(3) and iPET3/4 negative (59%/84%); TMTV≤230cm(3) and iPET3/4 positive (42%/50%); TMTV>230cm(3) and iPET3/4 positive (0%/18%). Conclusion: IPET response is predictive of outcome and allows early detection of high-risk PTCL patients. Combining iPET with TMTV improves risk stratification in individual patients. Copyright © 2017 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

  15. GENERAL SCIENTIFIC PRECONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS OF PREDICTION OF GEOSPACE PROCESSES FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Varshanina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This work substantiates the need to ontologically couple methods of prediction of geospace processes and fundamental bases of the modern epistemological picture of the world. The method of a structural mask of power geographical fields is offered. On its basis a way of a solution of the problem of indeterminacy and overcoming influence of nonlinearity of geospace processes, as well as the methods of their dot prediction are developed.

  16. Intermodality comparison between 3D perfusion CT and 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging for predicting early tumor response in patients with liver metastasis after chemotherapy: Preliminary results of a prospective study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hyun [Department of Radiology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Se Hyung, E-mail: shkim7071@gmail.com [Department of Radiology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); The Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Im, Seock-Ah; Han, Sae-Won [Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Goo, Jin Mo [Department of Radiology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); The Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Willmann, Juergen K. [Department of Radiology and Molecular Imaging Program at Stanford, Stanford University School of Medicine, CA (United States); Lee, Eun Seong; Eo, Jae Seon; Paeng, Jin Chul [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Han, Joon Koo; Choi, Byung Ihn [Department of Radiology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); The Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-11-15

    Objectives: To evaluate the feasibility of 3D perfusion CT for predicting early treatment response in patients with liver metastasis from colorectal cancer. Methods: Seventeen patients with colon cancer and liver metastasis were prospectively enroled to undergo perfusion CT and 18F-FDG-PET/CT before and after one-cycle of chemotherapy. Two radiologists and three nuclear medicine physicians measured various perfusion CT and PET/CT parameters, respectively from the largest hepatic metastasis. Baseline values and reduction rates of the parameters were compared between responders and nonresponders. Spearman correlation test was used to correlate perfusion CT and PET/CT parameters, using RECIST criteria as reference standard. Results: Nine patients responded to treatment, eight patients were nonresponders. Baseline SUV{sub mean30} on PET/CT, reduction rates of 30% metabolic volume and 30% lesion glycolysis (LG{sub 30}) on PET/CT and blood flow (BF) and flow extraction product (FEP) on perfusion CT after chemotherapy were significantly different between responders and nonresponders (P = 0.008-0.046). Reduction rates of BF (correlation coefficient = 0.630) and FEP (correlation coefficient = 0.578) significantly correlated with that of LG{sub 30} on PET/CT (P < 0.05). Conclusion: CT perfusion parameters including BF and FEP may be used as early predictors of tumor response in patients with liver metastasis from colorectal cancer.

  17. Predicting arterial blood gas and lactate from central venous blood analysis in critically ill patients: a multicentre, prospective, diagnostic accuracy study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulain, T; Garot, D; Vignon, P; Lascarrou, J-B; Benzekri-Lefevre, D; Dequin, P-F

    2016-09-01

    The estimation of arterial blood gas and lactate from central venous blood analysis and pulse oximetry [Formula: see text] readings has not yet been extensively validated. In this multicentre, prospective study performed in 590 patients with acute circulatory failure, we measured blood gases and lactate in simultaneous central venous and arterial blood samples at 6 h intervals during the first 24 h after insertion of central venous and arterial catheters. The study population was randomly divided in a 2:1 ratio into model derivation and validation sets. We derived predictive models of arterial pH, carbon dioxide partial pressure, oxygen saturation, and lactate, using clinical characteristics, [Formula: see text], and central venous blood gas values as predictors, and then tested their performance in the validation set. In the validation set, the agreement intervals between predicted and actual values were -0.078/+0.084 units for arterial pH, -1.32/+1.36 kPa for arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure, -5.15/+4.47% for arterial oxygen saturation, and -1.07/+1.05 mmol litre(-1) for arterial lactate (i.e. around two times our predefined clinically tolerable intervals for all variables). This led to ∼5% (or less) of extreme-to-extreme misclassifications, thus giving our predictive models only marginal agreement. Thresholds of predicted variables (as determined from the derivation set) showed high predictive values (consistently >94%), to exclude abnormal arterial values in the validation set. Using clinical characteristics, [Formula: see text], and central venous blood analysis, we predicted arterial blood gas and lactate values with marginal accuracy in patients with circulatory failure. Further studies are required to establish whether the developed models can be used with acceptable safety. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Predicting mortality in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeders: validation of the Italian PNED Score and Prospective Comparison with the Rockall Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmo, Riccardo; Koch, Maurizio; Cipolletta, Livio; Capurso, Lucio; Grossi, Enzo; Cestari, Renzo; Bianco, Maria A; Pandolfo, Nicola; Dezi, Angelo; Casetti, Tino; Lorenzini, Ivano; Germani, Ugo; Imperiali, Giorgio; Stroppa, Italo; Barberani, Fausto; Boschetto, Sandro; Gigliozzi, Alessandro; Gatto, Giovanni; Peri, Vittorio; Buzzi, Andrea; Della Casa, Domenico; Di Cicco, Marino; Proietti, Massimo; Aragona, Giovanni; Giangregorio, Francesco; Allegretta, Luciano; Tronci, Salvatore; Michetti, Paolo; Romagnoli, Paola; Piubello, Walter; Ferri, Barbara; Fornari, Fabio; Del Piano, Mario; Pagliarulo, Michela; Di Mitri, Roberto; Trallori, Giacomo; Bagnoli, Sirio; Frosini, Giorgio; Macchiarelli, Raffaele; Sorrentini, Italo; Pietrini, Lorena; De Stefano, Salvatore; Ceglia, Tommaso; Chiozzini, Giorgio; Salvagnini, Mario; Di Muzio, Daniela; Rotondano, Gianluca

    2010-06-01

    We sought (i) to validate a new prediction rule of mortality (Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva (PNED) score) on an independent population with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and (ii) to compare the accuracy of the Italian PNED score vs. the Rockall score in predicting the risk of death. We conducted prospective validation of analysis of consecutive patients with UGIB at 21 hospitals from 2007 to 2008. Outcome measure was 30-day mortality. All the variables used to calculate the Rockall score as well as those identified in the Italian predictive model were considered. Calibration of the model was tested using the chi2 goodness-of-fit and performance characteristics with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the two predictive models. Over a 16-month period, data on 1,360 patients were entered in a national database and analyzed. Peptic ulcer bleeding was recorded in 60.7% of cases. One or more comorbidities were present in 66% of patients. Endoscopic treatment was delivered in all high-risk patients followed by high-dose intravenous proton pump inhibitor in 95% of them. Sixty-six patients died (mortality 4.85%; 3.54-5.75). The PNED score showed a high discriminant capability and was significantly superior to the Rockall score in predicting the risk of death (AUC 0.81 (0.72-0.90) vs. 0.66 (0.60-0.72), P8 was 16.05. The Italian 10-point score for the prediction of death was successfully validated in this independent population of patients with non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding. The PNED score is accurate and superior to the Rockall score. Further external validation at the international level is needed.

  19. Predicting prognosis in stable angina - results from the Euro heart survey of stable angina: prospective observational study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daly, Caroline A.; De Stavola, Bianca; Sendon, Jose L. Lopez

    2006-01-01

    -European survey in 156 outpatient cardiology clinics. Participants 3031 patients were included on the basis of a new clinical diagnosis by a cardiologist of stable angina with follow-up at one year. Main outcome measure Death or non-fatal myocardial infarction. Results The rate of death and non-fatal myocardial...... infarction in the first year was 2.3 per 100 patient years; the rate was 3.9 per 100 patient years in the subgroup (n = 994) with angiographic confirmation of coronary disease. The clinical and investigative factors most predictive of adverse outcome were comorbidity, diabetes, shorter duration of symptoms......, increasing severity of symptoms, abnormal ventricular function, resting electrocardiogaphic changes, or not having any stress test done. Results of non-invasive stress tests did not significantly predict outcome in the population who had tests done. A score was constructed using the parameters predictive...

  20. A prospective, clinical study on asymptomatic sensitisation and development of allergic rhinitis: high negative predictive value of allergological testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bodtger, Uffe; Assing, Kristian; Poulsen, Lars K

    2011-01-01

    populations, conferring bias towards higher incidence rates. Objective: The aim was to determine the incidence of onset of symptoms among clinically well-characterised asymptomatic, sensitised subjects compared with controls, and to evaluate the predictive values of common allergological tests. Methods: We...... an annual incidence rate of 5% for the onset of symptoms in the AS group (healthy control group 0%). At baseline, the AS group displayed intermediate experimental allergen susceptibility. Subjects developing symptoms had higher levels of specific IgE and larger late-phase reaction than those persistently...... asymptomatic. However, the positive predictive values were low (14-27%) in contrast to the negative predictive values (95-100%). Conclusion: In a well-characterised young population, asymptomatic aeroallergen sensitisation conferred a low risk for onset of symptoms during the 2-year follow-up. Persistent...

  1. An EGARCH-BPNN system for estimating and predicting stock market volatility in Morocco and Saudi Arabia: The effect of trading volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim Lahmiri

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the backpropagation neural network (BPNN is tested for the ability to forecast the daily volatility of two stock market indices from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region using volume; namely Morocco and Saudi Arabia. Volatility series were estimated using the Exponential Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH model. The simulation results show that trading volume helps improving the forecasting accuracy of BPNN in Morocco but not in Saudi Arabia. As a result, volume represents valuable information flow to be used in the modeling and prediction of volatility in Morocco. In addition, it is found that BPNN overpredicts volatility during high volatile periods. This finding is important in financial applications such as asset allocation and derivatives pricing.

  2. The accurate definition of metabolic volumes on {sup 18}F-FDG-PET before treatment allows the response to chemoradiotherapy to be predicted in the case of oesophagus cancers; La definition precise des volumes metaboliques sur TEP au 18F-FDG avant traitement permet la prediction de la reponse a la chimioradiotherapie dans les cancers de l'oesophage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hatt, M.; Cheze-Le Rest, C.; Visvikis, D. [Inserm U650, Brest (France); Pradier, O. [Radiotherapie, CHRU Morvan, Brest (France)

    2011-10-15

    This study aims at assessing the possibility of prediction of the response of locally advanced oesophagus cancers, even before the beginning of treatment, by using metabolic volume measurements performed on {sup 18}F-FDG PET images made before the treatment. Medical files of 50 patients have been analyzed. According to the observed responses, and to metabolic volume and Total Lesion Glycosis (TLG) values, it appears that the images allow the extraction of parameters, such as the TLG, which are criteria for the prediction of the therapeutic response. Short communication

  3. Haptoglobin genotype predicts development of coronary artery calcification in a prospective cohort of patients with type 1 diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simpson Melissa

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Coronary artery disease has been linked with genotypes for haptoglobin (Hp which modulates extracorpuscular hemoglobin. We hypothesized that the Hp genotype would predict progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC, a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis. Methods CAC was measured three times in six years among 436 subjects with type 1 diabetes and 526 control subjects participating in the Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes (CACTI study. Hp typing was performed on plasma samples by polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Results The Hp 2-2 genotype predicted development of significant CAC only in subjects with diabetes who were free of CAC at baseline (OR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.07-3.56, p = 0.03, compared to those without the Hp 2-2 genotype, controlling for age, sex, blood pressure and HDL-cholesterol. Hp 2 appeared to have an allele-dose effect on development of CAC. Hp genotype did not predict CAC progression in individuals without diabetes. Conclusions Hp genotype may aid prediction of accelerated coronary atherosclerosis in subjects with type 1 diabetes.

  4. Can FDG PET predict radiation treatment outcome in head and neck cancer? Results of a prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schinagl, D.A.X.; Span, P.N.; Oyen, W.J.G.; Kaanders, J.H.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE: In head and neck cancer (HNC) various treatment strategies have been developed to improve outcome, but selecting patients for these intensified treatments remains difficult. Therefore, identification of novel pretreatment assays to predict outcome is of interest. In HNC there are indication

  5. Prospective Dutch colorectal cancer cohort : an infrastructure for long-term observational, prognostic, predictive and (randomized) intervention research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burbach, J P M; Kurk, S A; Coebergh van den Braak, R R J; Dik, V K; May, A M; Meijer, G. A.; Punt, C J A; Vink, G R; Los, M; Hoogerbrugge, N; Huijgens, P C; Ijzermans, J N M; Kuipers, E J; de Noo, M E; Pennings, J P; van der Velden, A M T; Verhoef, C; Siersema, P D; van Oijen, M G H; Verkooijen, H M; Koopman, M

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Systematic evaluation and validation of new prognostic and predictive markers, technologies and interventions for colorectal cancer (CRC) is crucial for optimizing patients' outcomes. With only 5-15% of patients participating in clinical trials, generalizability of results is poor. Moreo

  6. Predicting the onset of major depression in subjects with subthreshold depression in primary care: A prospective study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuijpers, P.; Smit, H.F.E.; Willemse, G.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: That subjects with subthreshold depression have an increased probability of developing major depression has been confirmed by many studies. However, the factors which may predict the onset of major depression have yet to be fully examined. Method: We examined the control group of a random

  7. Clinical Prediction of Suicide and Undetermined Death: A Pseudo-Prospective Clinical and Medico-Legal Study of Substance Abusers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brådvik, Louise; Berglund, Mats; Frank, Arne; Löwenhielm, Peter

    2017-03-17

    This study examines aspects of prediction of suicide and death of undetermined intent. We investigated all consecutive, autopsied patients between 1993 and 1997 who had been in contact with the Addiction Centre in Malmö from 1968 onwards. The staff was asked, shortly after autopsy but before they knew of the manner of death, if they thought the patient had committed suicide. The case records were blindly evaluated, and toxicological autopsy findings for alcohol in blood samples investigated. The specificity of prediction was 83% and significantly more often correct than the sensitivity, which was only 45% for suicide and for suicide/death of undetermined intent (93% versus 39%). Suicidal communication was more often considered non-serious before death of undetermined intent than before suicide. The former could be predicted by ideation but not by suicide attempt reported in case records, unlike suicide, which was predicted by both. The undetermined group also showed higher levels of alcohol in the blood at autopsy. We concluded that more serious clinical investigation of suicidal feelings, which may be hidden and not taken seriously, and treatment of alcohol use disorders with active follow-up appear urgent in the efforts to prevent suicide.

  8. The plasma leptin/adiponectin ratio predicts first cardiovascular event in men : A prospective nested case-control study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappelle, Paul J.W.H.; Dullaart, Robin P. F.; van Beek, Andre P.; Hillege, Hans L.; Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H. R.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: The plasma leptin/adiponectin (L/A) ratio has been proposed as a preferential marker of atherosclerosis susceptibility compared to leptin and adiponectin alone. We determined the extent to which the L/A ratio predicts incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) taking account of clinical risk f

  9. Predicting the onset of major depression in subjects with subthreshold depression in primary care: A prospective study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuijpers, P.; Smit, H.F.E.; Willemse, G.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: That subjects with subthreshold depression have an increased probability of developing major depression has been confirmed by many studies. However, the factors which may predict the onset of major depression have yet to be fully examined. Method: We examined the control group of a

  10. External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort : prospective multicentre cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lamain-de Ruiter, Marije; Kwee, Anneke; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; de Groot, Inge; Evers, Inge M; Groenendaal, Floris; Hering, Yolanda R; Huisjes, Anjoke J M; Kirpestein, Cornel; Monincx, Wilma M; Siljee, Jacqueline E; Van 't Zelfde, Annewil; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Vankan-Buitelaar, Simone A; Vonk, Mariska A A W; Wiegers, Therese A; Zwart, Joost J; Franx, Arie; Moons, Karel G M; Koster, Maria P H

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy. DESIGN: External validation of all published prognostic models in

  11. Using Neural Network and Logistic Regression Analysis to Predict Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Academic Success upon Entering Graduate Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahadir, Elif

    2016-01-01

    The ability to predict the success of students when they enter a graduate program is critical for educational institutions because it allows them to develop strategic programs that will help improve students' performances during their stay at an institution. In this study, we present the results of an experimental comparison study of Logistic…

  12. Chest wall volume receiving >30 Gy predicts risk of severe pain and/or rib fracture after lung stereotactic body radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlap, Neal E; Cai, Jing; Biedermann, Gregory B; Yang, Wensha; Benedict, Stanley H; Sheng, Ke; Schefter, Tracey E; Kavanagh, Brian D; Larner, James M

    2010-03-01

    To identify the dose-volume parameters that predict the risk of chest wall (CW) pain and/or rib fracture after lung stereotactic body radiotherapy. From a combined, larger multi-institution experience, 60 consecutive patients treated with three to five fractions of stereotactic body radiotherapy for primary or metastatic peripheral lung lesions were reviewed. CW pain was assessed using the Common Toxicity Criteria for pain. Peripheral lung lesions were defined as those located within 2.5 cm of the CW. A minimal point dose of 20 Gy to the CW was required. The CW volume receiving >or=20, >or=30, >or=40, >or=50, and >or=60 Gy was determined and related to the risk of CW toxicity. Of the 60 patients, 17 experienced Grade 3 CW pain and five rib fractures. The median interval to the onset of severe pain and/or fracture was 7.1 months. The risk of CW toxicity was fitted to the median effective concentration dose-response model. The CW volume receiving 30 Gy best predicted the risk of severe CW pain and/or rib fracture (R(2) = 0.9552). A volume threshold of 30 cm(3) was observed before severe pain and/or rib fracture was reported. A 30% risk of developing severe CW toxicity correlated with a CW volume of 35 cm(3) receiving 30 Gy. The development of CW toxicity is clinically relevant, and the CW should be considered an organ at risk in treatment planning. The CW volume receiving 30 Gy in three to five fractions should be limited to <30 cm(3), if possible, to reduce the risk of toxicity without compromising tumor coverage. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Does a history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy help predict future essential hypertension? Findings from a prospective pregnancy cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaway, L K; Mamun, A; McIntyre, H D; Williams, G M; Najman, J M; Nitert, M D; Lawlor, D A

    2013-05-01

    Hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) is considered an important determinant in the prediction of future hypertension. The aim of this study is to examine whether HDP improves prediction of future hypertension, over prediction based on established risk factors measured during pregnancy. We used a community based cohort study of 2117 women who received antenatal care at a major hospital in Brisbane between 1981 and 1983 and had blood pressure assessed 21 years after the index pregnancy. Of these 2117 women, 193 (9.0%) experienced HDP and 345 (16.3%) had hypertension at 21 years postpartum. For women with HDP, the odds of being hypertensive at 21 years postpartum were 2.46 (95% CI 1.70, 3.56), adjusted for established risk factors including age, education, race, alcohol, cigarettes, exercise and body mass index. Addition of HDP did not improve the prediction model that included these established risk factors, with the area under the curve of receiver operator (AUROC) increasing from 0.710 to 0.716 (P-value for difference in AUROC=0.185). Our findings suggest that HDP is strongly and independently associated with future hypertension, and women who experience this condition should be counselled regarding lifestyle modification and careful ongoing blood pressure monitoring. However, the development of HDP during pregnancy does not improve our capacity to predict future hypertension, over risk factors identifiable at the time of pregnancy. This suggests that counseling regarding lifestyle modification and ongoing blood pressure monitoring might reasonably be provided to all pregnant and postpartum women with identifiable risk factors for future hypertension.

  14. A hybrid mixture discriminant analysis-random forest computational model for the prediction of volume of distribution of drugs in human.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardo, Franco; Obach, R Scott; Dicapua, Frank M; Bakken, Gregory A; Lu, Jing; Potter, David M; Gao, Feng; Miller, Michael D; Zhang, Yao

    2006-04-06

    A computational approach is described that can predict the VD(ss) of new compounds in humans, with an accuracy of within 2-fold of the actual value. A dataset of VD values for 384 drugs in humans was used to train a hybrid mixture discriminant analysis-random forest (MDA-RF) model using 31 computed descriptors. Descriptors included terms describing lipophilicity, ionization, molecular volume, and various molecular fragments. For a test set of 23 proprietary compounds not used in model construction, the geometric mean fold-error (GMFE) was 1.78-fold (+/-11.4%). The model was also tested using a leave-class out approach wherein subsets of drugs based on therapeutic class were removed from the training set of 384, the model was recast, and the VD(ss) values for each of the subsets were predicted. GMFE values ranged from 1.46 to 2.94-fold, depending on the subset. Finally, for an additional set of 74 compounds, VD(ss) predictions made using the computational model were compared to predictions made using previously described methods dependent on animal pharmacokinetic data. Computational VD(ss) predictions were, on average, 2.13-fold different from the VD(ss) predictions from animal data. The computational model described can predict human VD(ss) with an accuracy comparable to predictions requiring substantially greater effort and can be applied in place of animal experimentation.

  15. Evaluating the Predictive Impact of an Emergent Literacy Model on Dyslexia in Italian Children: A Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pezzica, Sara; Pinto, Giuliana

    2016-01-01

    The strong differences in manifestation, prevalence, and incidence in dyslexia across languages invite studies in specific writing systems. In particular, the question of the role played by emergent literacy in opaque and transparent writing systems remains a fraught one. This research project tested, through a 4-year prospective cohort study, an emergent literacy model for the analysis of the characteristics of future dyslexic children and normally reading peers in Italian, a transparent writing system. A cohort of 450 children was followed from the last year of kindergarten to the third grade in their reading acquisition process. Dyslexic children were individuated (Grade 3), and their performances in kindergarten in textual competence, phonological awareness, and conceptual knowledge of the writing system were compared with a matched group of normally reading peers. Results showed the predictive relevance of the conceptual knowledge of the writing system. The study's implications are discussed.

  16. Prediction of subacute infarct lesion volumes by processing apparent diffusion coefficient maps based on apparent diffusion coefficient cut-off values in patients with acute stroke

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭翔

    2014-01-01

    Objective To explore the feasibility of prediction of subacute infarct lesion volumes by processing ADC maps based on ADC cut-off values in patients with acute stroke.Methods MRI was performed in 20 patients with clinically diagnosed acute infarct less than 6 h after stroke onset.The MRI included a DWI and conventional MRI.The follow-up MR examinations of all the patients

  17. Predicting cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality in chronic kidney disease in Spain. The rationale and design of NEFRONA: a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roig Jordi

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD. Cardiovascular risk assessment in this population is hampered by the failure of traditional risk factors to fully account for the elevated CVD risk (reverse epidemiology effect and the presence of emerging risk factors specifically related to kidney failure. Therefore, diagnostic tools capable of improving cardiovascular risk assessment beyond traditional risk factors are currently warranted. We present the protocol of a 4-year prospective study aimed to assess the predictive value of non-invasive imaging techniques and biomarkers for CVD events and mortality in patients with CKD. Methods From November 2009 to October 2010, 4137 asymptomatic adult patients with stages 2 to 5 CKD will be recruited from nephrology services and dialysis units throughout Spain. During the same period, 843 participants without CKD (control group will be recruited from lists of primary care physicians, only at baseline. During the follow-up, CVD events and mortality will be recorded from all CKD patients. Clinical and laboratory characteristics will be collected in a medical documentation sheet. Three trained itinerant teams will carry out a carotid ultrasound to assess intima-media thickness and presence of plaques. A composite atherosclerosis score will be constructed based on carotid ultrasound data and measurement of ankle-brachial index. In CKD patients, presence and type of calcifications will be assessed in the wall of carotid, femoral and brachial arteries, and in cardiac valves, by ultrasound. From all participants, blood samples will be collected and stored in a biobank to study novel biomarkers. Conclusions The NEFRONA study is the first large, prospective study to examine the predictive value of several non-invasive imaging techniques and novel biomarkers in CKD patients throughout Spain. Hereby, we present the

  18. Sarcopenia in overweight and obese patients is a predictive factor for postoperative complication in gastric cancer: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, N; Chi, C-H; Chen, X-D; Zhou, C-J; Wang, S-L; Zhuang, C-L; Shen, X

    2017-01-01

    Sarcopenia is a syndrome characterized by progressive and generalized loss of skeletal muscle mass and strength. This study aims to explore the prevalence of sarcopenia in overweight and obese gastric cancer (GC) patients and figured out the impacts of sarcopenia on the postoperative complication of overweight and obese GC patients. According to the recommended body-mass index (BMI) for Asian populations by WHO, we conducted a prospective study of overweight and obese gastric cancer patients (BMI ≥ 23 kg/m(2)) under curative gastrectomy from August 2014 to December 2015. Including lumbar skeletal muscle index, handgrip strength and gait speed as the sarcopenic components were measured before surgery. Patients were followed up after gastrectomy to gain the actual clinical outcomes. Factors contributing to postoperative complications were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis. Total of 206 overweight or obese patients were enrolled in this study, 14 patients were diagnosed sarcopenia and were demonstrated having significantly association with higher risk of postoperative complications, higher hospital costs, and higher rate of 30-days readmission compared with the non-sarcopenic ones. On the basis of univariate and multivariate analysis, sarcopenia was an independent risk factor for postoperative complication of overweight and obese patients with gastric cancer (P = 0.002). Sarcopenia is an independent predictor of postoperative complications in overweight or obese patients with gastric cancer after radical gastrectomy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

  19. Adverse psychosocial factors predict poorer prognosis in HIV disease: a meta-analytic review of prospective investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chida, Yoichi; Vedhara, Kavita

    2009-05-01

    There is a growing epidemiological literature focusing on the association between psychosocial stress and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), but inconsistent findings have been published. We aimed to quantify the association between adverse psychosocial factors and HIV disease progression. We searched Medline; PsycINFO; Web of Science; PubMed up to 19 January 2009, and included population studies with a prospective design that investigated associations between adverse psychosocial factors and HIV disease progression or AIDS. Two reviewers independently extracted data on study characteristics, quality, and estimates of associations. The overall meta-analysis examined 36 articles including 100 psychosocial and disease related relationships. It exhibited a small, but robust positive association between adverse psychosocial factors and HIV progression (correlation coefficient as combined size effect 0.059, 95% confidence interval 0.043-0.074, pHIV disease progression than stress stimuli per se, and that all of the immunological and clinical outcome indicators (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome st